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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:14,414 --> 00:00:17,679 ROBERT BALLARD: I've dedicated my life to exploring the unknown. 2 00:00:17,818 --> 00:00:20,685 I've been places no one else has ever gone. 3 00:00:20,821 --> 00:00:24,121 I've seen life no human eye has ever seen. 4 00:00:24,258 --> 00:00:25,726 It's my passion. 5 00:00:27,661 --> 00:00:29,493 I found the Titanic. 6 00:00:33,100 --> 00:00:35,125 God damn! 7 00:00:35,569 --> 00:00:38,402 I've survived crushing depths 8 00:00:38,539 --> 00:00:41,304 and a rogue wave. 9 00:00:41,441 --> 00:00:43,967 But even after 50 years at sea, 10 00:00:44,111 --> 00:00:49,277 I'm as fascinated with the deep as I was on my very first expedition. 11 00:00:49,416 --> 00:00:52,511 You want to know my most important discovery? 12 00:00:52,653 --> 00:00:54,747 Well, it's the one I'm about to make. 13 00:00:56,823 --> 00:00:58,120 I'm Dr. Robert Ballard. 14 00:00:58,258 --> 00:01:01,159 Come with me into the alien deep. 15 00:01:18,845 --> 00:01:19,937 NARRATOR: Everywhere we look 16 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:23,380 it seems the oceans are unleashing their fury. 17 00:01:25,752 --> 00:01:29,416 These could be flukes, part of a natural cycle, 18 00:01:29,556 --> 00:01:32,491 or signs of dangerous global change. 19 00:01:33,660 --> 00:01:37,255 BALLARD: Man has always been challenged by the sea, 20 00:01:37,397 --> 00:01:41,300 and just when we think we've conquered its violent moods, 21 00:01:41,435 --> 00:01:44,097 the planet seems to be upping the ante. 22 00:01:44,237 --> 00:01:46,296 But is that really the case? 23 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:48,909 And if so, why? 24 00:01:53,747 --> 00:01:56,216 So that's what I'm trying to find out. 25 00:02:01,254 --> 00:02:04,189 NARRATOR: To most of us, this is the ocean. 26 00:02:07,227 --> 00:02:09,992 But when Dr. Robert Ballard looks at the water, 27 00:02:10,130 --> 00:02:12,622 he sees something very different... 28 00:02:20,574 --> 00:02:23,509 Something straight out of a horror movie. 29 00:02:31,385 --> 00:02:33,285 [thunder cracks] 30 00:02:42,062 --> 00:02:44,793 Stronger storms, higher seas, 31 00:02:44,931 --> 00:02:46,763 and lurking in the deep, 32 00:02:46,900 --> 00:02:50,165 monsters with the power to eat ships whole. 33 00:03:06,653 --> 00:03:11,716 Few have met up with rogue waves like these and survived. 34 00:03:11,858 --> 00:03:15,123 Ballard is one of the lucky ones. 35 00:03:15,262 --> 00:03:17,890 BALLARD: Yeah, my first introduction to a rogue wave, 36 00:03:18,031 --> 00:03:21,160 ironically, was on the first time I went to sea, 37 00:03:21,301 --> 00:03:24,236 on my first oceanographic expedition. 38 00:03:24,371 --> 00:03:25,634 I was 17 years old, 39 00:03:25,772 --> 00:03:27,866 and we were in a tremendous storm 40 00:03:28,008 --> 00:03:29,407 in the North Pacific Ocean. 41 00:03:29,543 --> 00:03:36,074 We were in 45-foot swells, 15-meter waves were coming at us. 42 00:03:36,216 --> 00:03:38,116 It was like a roller coaster ride. 43 00:03:39,753 --> 00:03:40,652 And I was up on the bridge, 44 00:03:40,787 --> 00:03:43,916 and all of a sudden this monstrous wave 45 00:03:44,057 --> 00:03:47,618 just comes looming out of the sea right in front of us. 46 00:03:50,864 --> 00:03:54,027 Smashes right into the bridge, destroys the bridge, 47 00:03:54,167 --> 00:03:57,467 all the windows were knocked out, blew out the portholes, 48 00:03:57,604 --> 00:04:00,232 took away the mast, and we almost sank. 49 00:04:02,642 --> 00:04:04,371 And I was hooked for life. 50 00:04:04,511 --> 00:04:06,809 What a, what a wave. 51 00:04:06,947 --> 00:04:08,972 I was too young to be afraid. 52 00:04:09,116 --> 00:04:10,550 I was in awe. 53 00:04:14,654 --> 00:04:18,716 NARRATOR: Mariners have been telling tales of rogue waves for centuries. 54 00:04:19,893 --> 00:04:24,126 Massive walls of water that tower over the seas around them. 55 00:04:28,268 --> 00:04:30,532 1981. 56 00:04:30,670 --> 00:04:34,470 A huge wave blasts an oil rig off the Atlantic coast of Canada, 57 00:04:34,608 --> 00:04:37,475 killing all 84 people on board. 58 00:04:44,117 --> 00:04:46,677 1995. 59 00:04:46,820 --> 00:04:49,653 Another rogue breaks over a luxury liner's bow 60 00:04:49,790 --> 00:04:51,986 and carries off a forward mast. 61 00:04:54,895 --> 00:04:58,456 BALLARD: Lots of ships that just vanish without a trace 62 00:04:58,598 --> 00:05:00,430 are hit by rogue waves, because you have absolutely no time. 63 00:05:00,567 --> 00:05:03,400 It just happens, you don't see it coming. 64 00:05:03,537 --> 00:05:05,904 So you have no chance to get off a message. 65 00:05:08,275 --> 00:05:10,073 You just disappear. 66 00:05:13,947 --> 00:05:16,211 NARRATOR: Which is why actual measurements of these giants 67 00:05:16,349 --> 00:05:18,784 were so hard to come by... 68 00:05:18,919 --> 00:05:22,480 until one day in January 1995. 69 00:05:25,225 --> 00:05:28,684 Hurricane force winds blast a Norwegian oil rig. 70 00:05:30,197 --> 00:05:32,495 Workers evacuate the deck. 71 00:05:36,536 --> 00:05:40,097 But just below, pointing straight down at the oncoming seas, 72 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:44,438 a laser range finder detects one giant wave after another. 73 00:05:48,849 --> 00:05:50,578 25 feet. 74 00:05:51,685 --> 00:05:53,016 30 feet. 75 00:05:54,287 --> 00:05:55,880 28 feet. 76 00:05:57,424 --> 00:06:00,325 Then, at 3:20 PM, 77 00:06:00,460 --> 00:06:02,588 the instrument spikes. 78 00:06:05,699 --> 00:06:09,567 A 75-foot monster hammers the rig. 79 00:06:25,652 --> 00:06:27,484 The platform survives 80 00:06:27,621 --> 00:06:30,522 and the world gets its first incontrovertible proof 81 00:06:30,657 --> 00:06:34,150 of just how big rogue waves can be. 82 00:06:36,730 --> 00:06:38,095 BALLARD: What you get is you get 83 00:06:38,231 --> 00:06:40,996 two different wave patterns that intersect. 84 00:06:41,134 --> 00:06:43,068 And normally they cancel one another out, 85 00:06:43,203 --> 00:06:45,228 but if you do it just right, 86 00:06:45,372 --> 00:06:50,208 you can get them to add up and then... 87 00:06:50,343 --> 00:06:53,176 have them shoot like that. 88 00:06:53,313 --> 00:06:55,111 And that's a rogue wave. 89 00:07:03,523 --> 00:07:05,924 And you don't want to be there when that happens. 90 00:07:07,861 --> 00:07:09,454 NARRATOR: If, as Ballard suspects, 91 00:07:09,596 --> 00:07:12,224 these waves, and the storms that spawn them, 92 00:07:12,365 --> 00:07:13,833 are getting bigger, 93 00:07:13,967 --> 00:07:16,163 we're in for a rough ride. 94 00:07:17,404 --> 00:07:23,070 Already, one large ship goes down on the high seas every month. 95 00:07:23,209 --> 00:07:26,577 Not to mention hundreds of smaller vessels. 96 00:07:31,418 --> 00:07:32,783 BALLARD: A ship a month. 97 00:07:32,919 --> 00:07:34,512 Think about that. 98 00:07:34,654 --> 00:07:36,349 And if the seas are getting rougher, 99 00:07:36,489 --> 00:07:39,424 that number's only going up. 100 00:07:41,494 --> 00:07:43,019 NARRATOR: As a longtime mariner, 101 00:07:43,163 --> 00:07:46,963 Ballard can guess where the hotspots are likely to be. 102 00:07:51,871 --> 00:07:56,365 The Cape of Good Hope is also known as the "Cape of Storms." 103 00:07:56,509 --> 00:07:57,704 JEAN PIERRE ARABONIS: It is at the moment 104 00:07:57,844 --> 00:08:00,939 the choke of shipping in the world. 105 00:08:02,382 --> 00:08:05,443 No one really wants to go through the Suez Canal anymore, 106 00:08:05,585 --> 00:08:08,452 because you've got to run the gauntlet of the pirates. 107 00:08:10,023 --> 00:08:12,253 Pirates are not predictable. 108 00:08:12,392 --> 00:08:15,225 So take your chances with the storms. 109 00:08:16,696 --> 00:08:18,494 NARRATOR: Tucked away in a remote field office 110 00:08:18,631 --> 00:08:20,121 high above the Cape, 111 00:08:20,266 --> 00:08:23,531 oceanographer Jean Pierre Arabonis has made a career 112 00:08:23,670 --> 00:08:27,971 out of predicting dangerous seas and rogue waves. 113 00:08:28,108 --> 00:08:33,171 His forecasts can mean life or death for hundreds of sailors. 114 00:08:33,313 --> 00:08:36,180 ARABONIS: I kind of built my business around this. 115 00:08:36,316 --> 00:08:37,306 I think I've got a bit of a feel 116 00:08:37,450 --> 00:08:38,781 as to where these things are going to occur 117 00:08:38,918 --> 00:08:41,717 a bit more often than anywhere else. 118 00:08:41,855 --> 00:08:45,189 But it's a mixture of science and intuition. 119 00:08:49,496 --> 00:08:51,021 NARRATOR: Arabonis sounds the alarm 120 00:08:51,164 --> 00:08:54,498 when storms kick up swells from the southwest. 121 00:08:57,437 --> 00:08:59,428 Instead of just creating chop, 122 00:08:59,572 --> 00:09:04,203 the waves barrel into a driving current from the northeast, 123 00:09:04,344 --> 00:09:07,575 which stacks them up into immense walls of water. 124 00:09:16,056 --> 00:09:17,683 ARABONIS: And that's where you really don't want to be, 125 00:09:17,824 --> 00:09:19,622 certainly when there's a storm, 126 00:09:19,759 --> 00:09:22,126 when there's strong southwesterly winds. 127 00:09:22,262 --> 00:09:25,562 This whole area can become completely unpredictable. 128 00:09:25,698 --> 00:09:29,965 And if we can't predict, you don't want to be there. 129 00:09:30,103 --> 00:09:33,004 BALLARD: The captains, often they have no choice. 130 00:09:33,139 --> 00:09:35,836 Riding the current saves time, and time is money, 131 00:09:35,975 --> 00:09:39,240 so usually they'll take the risk and plow right through it. 132 00:09:42,882 --> 00:09:45,544 ARABONIS: It's very difficult when you take a look at a ship 133 00:09:45,685 --> 00:09:50,054 and it's 20,000 tons and it's 200 meters long. 134 00:09:50,190 --> 00:09:52,522 You think it's not vulnerable. 135 00:09:52,659 --> 00:09:54,218 But it is. 136 00:09:55,495 --> 00:09:58,260 In the right conditions, that ship can fill up with water 137 00:09:58,398 --> 00:10:00,765 and be gone in minutes. 138 00:10:03,403 --> 00:10:04,700 BALLARD: That's a terrible way to go, 139 00:10:04,838 --> 00:10:07,933 and if storms continue to increase in intensity, 140 00:10:08,074 --> 00:10:10,236 it's gonna be a problem all over the world. 141 00:10:10,376 --> 00:10:13,368 Not just in South Africa, but everywhere. 142 00:10:29,963 --> 00:10:32,591 NARRATOR: If Ballard wants to know about angry oceans, 143 00:10:32,732 --> 00:10:34,564 there's one place to look. 144 00:10:34,701 --> 00:10:37,830 And it's not out on the water. 145 00:10:37,971 --> 00:10:39,905 This is Lloyd's of London, 146 00:10:40,039 --> 00:10:44,806 one of the most important insurance providers in the world. 147 00:10:44,944 --> 00:10:48,039 BALLARD: Lloyd's really dominates the insurance market 148 00:10:48,181 --> 00:10:51,481 for maritime insurance. 149 00:10:51,618 --> 00:10:55,282 I, myself, have insurance from Lloyd's. 150 00:10:55,421 --> 00:10:56,388 It just went up. 151 00:10:56,523 --> 00:10:58,582 [chuckles] 152 00:10:58,725 --> 00:11:00,693 NARRATOR: The firm has kept records of shipwrecks 153 00:11:00,827 --> 00:11:03,694 for more than 300 years. 154 00:11:03,830 --> 00:11:06,800 BALLARD: Sunk in deep water. 155 00:11:06,933 --> 00:11:08,196 Broke in two. 156 00:11:08,334 --> 00:11:11,133 Cape Town Rescue Centre. 157 00:11:11,271 --> 00:11:14,730 Bulk carrier out of Malta. 158 00:11:14,874 --> 00:11:20,779 This is the log of the ships that Lloyd's of London insured 159 00:11:20,914 --> 00:11:23,281 that were lost at sea. 160 00:11:27,754 --> 00:11:28,949 NARRATOR: 100 years ago, 161 00:11:29,088 --> 00:11:32,683 most of the losses were due to poor navigation. 162 00:11:32,825 --> 00:11:36,989 This year, piracy is also taking its toll. 163 00:11:37,130 --> 00:11:38,188 But in the future, 164 00:11:38,331 --> 00:11:41,528 Lloyd's anticipates that bigger storms and stronger waves 165 00:11:41,668 --> 00:11:45,298 will grow as risk factors for ocean disasters. 166 00:11:47,807 --> 00:11:49,866 It's confirmation of what Ballard and others 167 00:11:50,009 --> 00:11:53,343 think they're seeing out on the water. 168 00:11:53,479 --> 00:11:54,571 BALLARD: Every attempt is made 169 00:11:54,714 --> 00:12:00,847 to limit a ship's probability of sinking. 170 00:12:00,987 --> 00:12:02,716 And Lloyd's is very keenly interested 171 00:12:02,855 --> 00:12:05,256 in making sure that that occurs. 172 00:12:05,391 --> 00:12:07,155 But then there's just acts of God, 173 00:12:07,293 --> 00:12:10,820 acts of Mother Nature, acts of the earth. 174 00:12:10,964 --> 00:12:14,332 And they are starting to see trends 175 00:12:14,467 --> 00:12:17,232 that the ocean's getting angrier. 176 00:12:19,973 --> 00:12:23,841 NARRATOR: If the trends continue, the results could be devastating. 177 00:12:25,044 --> 00:12:29,379 90% of traded merchandise travels across the high seas, 178 00:12:29,515 --> 00:12:33,850 carrying some $13.5 trillion worth of goods. 179 00:12:38,157 --> 00:12:41,593 Nowhere are the stakes higher than off the coast of Oregon, 180 00:12:41,728 --> 00:12:45,426 where the raging Columbia River meets the howling North Pacific. 181 00:12:47,133 --> 00:12:51,161 Ballard has come to meet the men who ply these dangerous waters. 182 00:12:51,304 --> 00:12:55,502 Dan Jordan is one of these boat pilots on the front lines. 183 00:12:55,642 --> 00:12:57,974 If anyone were to notice changes on the ocean, 184 00:12:58,111 --> 00:12:59,977 it would be Dan. 185 00:13:01,581 --> 00:13:04,278 His job- steer massive cargo ships safely 186 00:13:04,417 --> 00:13:07,580 through the roiling waters and ever-shifting channel- 187 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:11,315 one of the most treacherous stretches of water in North America. 188 00:13:12,625 --> 00:13:15,686 BALLARD: They call it the "Graveyard of the Pacific" for a reason. 189 00:13:15,828 --> 00:13:18,593 Some 2,000 ships have gone down here. 190 00:13:18,731 --> 00:13:23,464 And these guys are out in it 365 days a year. 191 00:13:24,704 --> 00:13:28,106 NARRATOR: The channel is the gateway to the Pacific Northwest. 192 00:13:29,542 --> 00:13:32,603 Thousands of ships and billions of dollars' worth of goods 193 00:13:32,745 --> 00:13:35,737 pass through here every year. 194 00:13:35,882 --> 00:13:38,442 BALLARD: I think very few people realize 195 00:13:38,584 --> 00:13:43,181 how much of America's economy, going in or going out, 196 00:13:43,323 --> 00:13:45,348 is by sea. 197 00:13:45,491 --> 00:13:47,289 You don't load wheat on airplanes, 198 00:13:47,427 --> 00:13:48,861 and there's no trains. 199 00:13:48,995 --> 00:13:49,928 It stops here 200 00:13:50,063 --> 00:13:53,397 and there's only one way to get across the Pacific, 201 00:13:53,533 --> 00:13:55,695 whether you're going east or west, 202 00:13:55,835 --> 00:13:57,997 and it's by ships. 203 00:14:00,807 --> 00:14:02,707 NARRATOR: To guide the ships through the channel, 204 00:14:02,842 --> 00:14:05,436 the pilots first have to get on board. 205 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:10,448 Option one is a vomit-inducing jet boat. 206 00:14:21,394 --> 00:14:24,921 Even on a calm day, it can be lethal. 207 00:14:25,064 --> 00:14:26,828 The team recently lost a pilot 208 00:14:26,966 --> 00:14:28,900 when he fell from a ladder in big waves 209 00:14:29,035 --> 00:14:31,333 and the current dragged him out to sea. 210 00:14:57,463 --> 00:14:59,397 BALLARD: So, typical day at the office for you? 211 00:14:59,532 --> 00:15:00,897 DAN JORDAN: Typical day. 212 00:15:05,438 --> 00:15:07,930 NARRATOR: Option two, the safe option, 213 00:15:08,074 --> 00:15:10,566 is dangling from a helicopter. 214 00:15:11,611 --> 00:15:13,636 But with high winds, rough seas, 215 00:15:13,780 --> 00:15:17,341 and a six-story supertanker rocking and rolling below, 216 00:15:17,483 --> 00:15:19,679 it doesn't seem all that safe to Ballard. 217 00:15:19,819 --> 00:15:21,787 MAN ON RADIO: Man's going out the cabin door, 218 00:15:21,921 --> 00:15:23,889 going out the cabin door. 219 00:15:24,023 --> 00:15:26,014 Man is at the cabin door. 220 00:15:26,159 --> 00:15:28,890 Man's going down, man's going down. 221 00:15:30,463 --> 00:15:32,761 NARRATOR: The seasoned explorer has boarded lots of ships 222 00:15:32,899 --> 00:15:34,663 in his 50 years at sea, 223 00:15:34,801 --> 00:15:37,133 but never quite like this. 224 00:16:06,365 --> 00:16:08,390 Once on board, Ballard and the pilots 225 00:16:08,534 --> 00:16:11,060 quickly find their way to the bridge. 226 00:16:12,638 --> 00:16:14,299 The pilots take command of the ship 227 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,705 for the final leg into port. 228 00:16:17,844 --> 00:16:19,312 BALLARD: You know, you can steer your ship 229 00:16:19,445 --> 00:16:20,310 all the way around the world, 230 00:16:20,446 --> 00:16:23,882 but you need a pilot for the last stretch. 231 00:16:24,016 --> 00:16:26,485 The currents change, they're changing all the time. 232 00:16:26,619 --> 00:16:31,079 And only the pilot knows which route to take on any given day. 233 00:16:31,224 --> 00:16:32,658 JORDAN: Well, you're always on edge. 234 00:16:32,792 --> 00:16:35,352 Your senses are always alert to what's happening, 235 00:16:35,495 --> 00:16:38,123 but you also try and keep it calm. 236 00:16:38,264 --> 00:16:41,131 So even if it is a rough, tense situation- 237 00:16:41,267 --> 00:16:43,133 big seas or something of that nature- 238 00:16:43,269 --> 00:16:46,967 it's real important to keep things calm. 239 00:16:47,106 --> 00:16:50,736 NARRATOR: But even then, bad things can happen. 240 00:16:50,877 --> 00:16:52,641 Waves stall engines, 241 00:16:52,778 --> 00:16:55,577 the wind pushes ships toward the shoals. 242 00:16:56,916 --> 00:17:00,784 In bad weather, the three-mile transit can take hours. 243 00:17:05,091 --> 00:17:07,685 Dan knows these waters as well as anyone. 244 00:17:07,827 --> 00:17:11,092 And lately, he's seeing a disturbing change. 245 00:17:12,498 --> 00:17:13,556 BALLARD: Weather patterns are, 246 00:17:13,699 --> 00:17:15,599 I mean, obviously changing dramatically, 247 00:17:15,735 --> 00:17:19,899 and that there's actually increased height in the swells? 248 00:17:20,039 --> 00:17:22,667 JORDAN: Yeah, we've been watching that for a few years now, 249 00:17:22,808 --> 00:17:25,334 probably three or four years in particular. 250 00:17:25,478 --> 00:17:27,845 The scientists are all saying that wave heights are increasing 251 00:17:27,980 --> 00:17:30,472 and storm intensity's increasing. 252 00:17:30,616 --> 00:17:33,108 And we are seeing some evidence of that. 253 00:17:35,388 --> 00:17:36,719 NARRATOR: According to one study, 254 00:17:36,856 --> 00:17:38,187 the biggest waves in this region 255 00:17:38,324 --> 00:17:41,316 have risen 10 feet since the mid 1970s, 256 00:17:41,460 --> 00:17:42,985 and models project that they may rise 257 00:17:43,129 --> 00:17:47,293 as much as 50 feet over the next 100 years. 258 00:17:47,433 --> 00:17:51,301 That's the difference between a three- and five-story building. 259 00:17:55,741 --> 00:17:59,006 These increases, as well as the bigger storms behind them, 260 00:17:59,145 --> 00:18:01,170 cause Dan and his team to shut down the port 261 00:18:01,314 --> 00:18:04,284 several times every year. 262 00:18:04,417 --> 00:18:06,715 BALLARD: Now that's something they don't do lightly, 263 00:18:06,852 --> 00:18:10,652 because if the port closes, it backs up the whole country. 264 00:18:10,790 --> 00:18:13,953 You've got cargo trains and trucks grounded in their depots. 265 00:18:14,093 --> 00:18:16,562 Your new cars don't get to their lots. 266 00:18:16,696 --> 00:18:19,688 Farmers in the Midwest are sitting on their wheat. 267 00:18:19,832 --> 00:18:22,426 It's surprising how fast that can all happen. 268 00:18:27,006 --> 00:18:28,974 I imagine it gets sort of tense at times? 269 00:18:29,108 --> 00:18:30,439 JORDAN: Yeah, there's always a lot of pressure 270 00:18:30,576 --> 00:18:33,602 to get things moving, and that's part of our job. 271 00:18:35,414 --> 00:18:36,882 BALLARD: It's a constant battle. 272 00:18:37,016 --> 00:18:38,984 It's man against nature, 273 00:18:39,118 --> 00:18:42,281 and maybe nature may be winning. 274 00:18:48,794 --> 00:18:52,424 NARRATOR: One group, though, is not overly concerned. 275 00:18:52,565 --> 00:18:56,126 For them, the bigger the wave, the better. 276 00:19:56,495 --> 00:19:58,361 This is Teahupoo, 277 00:19:58,497 --> 00:20:01,194 Tahitian for "broken skulls."” 278 00:20:03,869 --> 00:20:07,362 One of the baddest, heaviest waves on the planet. 279 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:23,555 Surfers descend on Tahiti from far and wide 280 00:20:23,689 --> 00:20:26,056 to challenge its power. 281 00:20:51,584 --> 00:20:52,483 BALLARD: These guys are nuts. 282 00:20:52,618 --> 00:20:55,849 They track conditions all over the world. 283 00:20:55,988 --> 00:20:57,319 They have a better idea of what's happening 284 00:20:57,456 --> 00:20:59,117 than most meteorologists. 285 00:20:59,258 --> 00:21:00,953 In fact, if changes are happening, 286 00:21:01,093 --> 00:21:05,121 these are the folks who are probably gonna notice them first. 287 00:21:17,576 --> 00:21:21,342 NARRATOR: The master of wave forecasting is Sean Collins. 288 00:21:22,615 --> 00:21:23,639 SEAN COLLINS: I surf, 289 00:21:23,783 --> 00:21:26,013 and I found a way to avoid getting a real job 290 00:21:26,152 --> 00:21:28,484 by starting a surf company. 291 00:21:35,728 --> 00:21:38,356 NARRATOR: Once upon a time, surfers were beach bums, 292 00:21:38,497 --> 00:21:41,467 hanging out on the sand waiting for waves. 293 00:21:50,209 --> 00:21:51,472 Collins used science 294 00:21:51,610 --> 00:21:54,705 and his almost innate knowledge of storms and waves 295 00:21:54,847 --> 00:21:57,111 to change that culture. 296 00:22:01,587 --> 00:22:03,919 40 years ago, he launched Surfline, 297 00:22:04,056 --> 00:22:07,924 which incorporates satellites, wave buoys and supercomputers 298 00:22:08,060 --> 00:22:11,428 to predict the best surf waves around the world. 299 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:19,028 Close to two million users access Surfline each month. 300 00:22:21,473 --> 00:22:22,702 COLLINS: I guess you could say 301 00:22:22,842 --> 00:22:25,174 that we help supply the drugs, so to speak, 302 00:22:25,311 --> 00:22:28,110 to, you know, keep people on their high of surfing. 303 00:22:32,251 --> 00:22:34,652 NARRATOR: Tahitian pro Raimana Van Bastolaer 304 00:22:34,787 --> 00:22:37,950 is a self-confessed addict. 305 00:22:38,090 --> 00:22:39,455 RAIMANA VAN BASTOLAER: Some people have other things, 306 00:22:39,592 --> 00:22:43,028 and me, my drug is the ocean, you know? 307 00:22:43,162 --> 00:22:46,496 That's what, that's what we all live for. 308 00:22:50,002 --> 00:22:51,834 NARRATOR: Thanks to Sean's forecasts, 309 00:22:51,971 --> 00:22:53,871 Raimana can start preparing for a wave 310 00:22:54,006 --> 00:22:57,533 up to three weeks before it arrives. 311 00:22:57,676 --> 00:22:59,735 VAN BASTOLAER: Tuesday and Wednesday 312 00:22:59,879 --> 00:23:01,347 we're gonna get some good swell coming. 313 00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:03,915 COLLINS: We're forecasting this swell, 314 00:23:04,049 --> 00:23:05,312 you know, to arrive in Tahiti 315 00:23:05,451 --> 00:23:08,751 before the storm that generated the swell even happened, 316 00:23:08,888 --> 00:23:12,381 you know, so we're, you know, about three steps ahead. 317 00:23:12,524 --> 00:23:14,686 NARRATOR: The key is wind. 318 00:23:17,396 --> 00:23:20,855 A wave here in Tahiti begins where all waves do- 319 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,765 far out in the ocean where wind blows continuously 320 00:23:23,903 --> 00:23:25,837 over open water. 321 00:23:28,774 --> 00:23:30,708 It starts as a ripple. 322 00:23:32,578 --> 00:23:35,206 Pushed by the wind, it travels and grows, 323 00:23:35,347 --> 00:23:38,009 often combining with other swells. 324 00:23:41,186 --> 00:23:45,885 Add a big storm and it can turn into a monster. 325 00:23:51,764 --> 00:23:53,391 COLLINS: And then taking all these wind speeds, 326 00:23:53,532 --> 00:23:55,591 we're able to calculate waves around the earth, 327 00:23:55,734 --> 00:23:57,862 around the entire globe. 328 00:23:58,003 --> 00:24:00,995 The ideal situation for Tahiti, 329 00:24:01,140 --> 00:24:05,737 is when the storms start in this area underneath Australia here. 330 00:24:07,646 --> 00:24:11,480 NARRATOR: Across 5,000 miles of open windblown ocean, 331 00:24:11,617 --> 00:24:13,847 the wave can get big. 332 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:18,584 COLLINS: And it eventually gets up to, you know, over 50 feet. 333 00:24:18,724 --> 00:24:19,748 Obviously, if you're in a ship, 334 00:24:19,892 --> 00:24:21,826 you do not want to be in this area, 335 00:24:21,961 --> 00:24:24,089 but us as surfers, you know, we're looking this, 336 00:24:24,229 --> 00:24:26,630 and we're all excited. 337 00:24:26,765 --> 00:24:28,961 Everybody's making their reservations to go to Teahupoo. 338 00:24:29,101 --> 00:24:30,125 Raimana is on the phone, 339 00:24:30,269 --> 00:24:32,829 "Hey, Brother Sean, how's the swell looking?" You know. 340 00:24:32,972 --> 00:24:35,441 And, you know, we're, we're going to go chase it. 341 00:24:38,210 --> 00:24:39,644 NARRATOR: Accurate wind speed measurements 342 00:24:39,778 --> 00:24:43,112 are critical to the forecast. 343 00:24:43,248 --> 00:24:47,151 A three-mile-per-hour miscalculation in a storm off New Zealand 344 00:24:47,286 --> 00:24:49,220 can mean a four-foot difference in swell height 345 00:24:49,355 --> 00:24:51,915 by the time it reaches Tahiti. 346 00:24:53,225 --> 00:24:56,559 And it could arrive one day early or late. 347 00:24:58,931 --> 00:25:00,763 COLLINS: And you know, as our customers are surfers, 348 00:25:00,899 --> 00:25:03,300 if we're telling them there's going to be a swell tomorrow 349 00:25:03,435 --> 00:25:05,267 and it doesn't show up till the day after tomorrow, 350 00:25:05,404 --> 00:25:08,704 believe me, they're going to hate us. 351 00:25:08,841 --> 00:25:10,468 NARRATOR: Good thing for Sean and Raimana. 352 00:25:10,609 --> 00:25:15,012 Sean claims Surfline's forecasts are 95% accurate. 353 00:25:17,883 --> 00:25:22,684 Today, Raimana's got word that big rollers are on their way in. 354 00:25:27,059 --> 00:25:28,720 As it approaches Tahiti, 355 00:25:28,861 --> 00:25:31,159 the wave is still mostly underwater, 356 00:25:31,296 --> 00:25:33,628 only feeling the bottom when it gets shallow, 357 00:25:33,766 --> 00:25:35,962 about a half mile offshore. 358 00:25:37,936 --> 00:25:41,270 That's when Raimana catches his first glimpse. 359 00:25:43,442 --> 00:25:46,571 A dark, gray bump on the horizon. 360 00:25:47,980 --> 00:25:49,880 As the wave barrels toward shore 361 00:25:50,015 --> 00:25:52,382 at speeds of up to 60 miles per hour, 362 00:25:52,518 --> 00:25:55,613 the reef shapes it from below. 363 00:25:55,754 --> 00:25:56,812 COLLINS: All of a sudden, they just, 364 00:25:56,955 --> 00:25:59,720 they just hit a wall underneath the ocean that kind of stops them. 365 00:25:59,858 --> 00:26:01,883 And all that inertia just goes whoo, you know, 366 00:26:02,027 --> 00:26:04,621 just throws all that energy straight up. 367 00:26:10,102 --> 00:26:13,197 NARRATOR: It's the moment Raimana's been waiting for. 368 00:26:37,529 --> 00:26:40,294 VAN BASTOLAER: When she breaks, you have the sound of it, 369 00:26:40,432 --> 00:26:41,991 you know, how it goes on the reef, 370 00:26:42,134 --> 00:26:43,829 how it breaks, boom, boom, boom, 371 00:26:43,969 --> 00:26:47,200 and you're like [inhales] ah, ¢'mon, you know. 372 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:56,570 NARRATOR: Millions of tons of force 373 00:26:56,715 --> 00:27:00,709 breaking in three feet of water, over a razor-sharp reef. 374 00:27:02,187 --> 00:27:03,780 VAN BASTOLAER: I'm going into that wave, 375 00:27:03,922 --> 00:27:06,619 and then the whole thing cover me. 376 00:27:08,360 --> 00:27:10,158 And the next thing you know, 377 00:27:10,295 --> 00:27:12,195 there's this spit, we call it the spit, 378 00:27:12,331 --> 00:27:14,732 you get sucked like this [sucking sound] 379 00:27:14,867 --> 00:27:16,426 And the whole thing, my hair goes, 380 00:27:16,568 --> 00:27:18,536 and my whole thing goes, like, behind like this. 381 00:27:18,670 --> 00:27:21,139 I'm like, "Come on, come on, just let me, let me out." 382 00:27:21,273 --> 00:27:24,436 And next thing you know, it goes [blows]. 383 00:27:30,482 --> 00:27:34,612 And then somehow she let me go and let me out. 384 00:27:34,753 --> 00:27:35,845 You take it inside, you know, 385 00:27:35,988 --> 00:27:37,319 you're just holding for yourself. 386 00:27:37,456 --> 00:27:39,686 You've got it, you made it, and it's so stoked, 387 00:27:39,825 --> 00:27:43,352 you're just letting everything out over there. 388 00:27:43,495 --> 00:27:46,487 [cheering, applause] 389 00:27:46,632 --> 00:27:48,623 And then you go, let's go again, 390 00:27:48,767 --> 00:27:51,065 and then we're back again out, you know? 391 00:27:54,573 --> 00:27:57,941 NARRATOR: For surf waves, the forecasting is working. 392 00:27:59,845 --> 00:28:02,940 But predicting global changes in the ocean and climate 393 00:28:03,081 --> 00:28:05,243 is a lot tougher to do. 394 00:28:05,384 --> 00:28:09,218 BALLARD: If we're really seeing the oceans getting more violent, 395 00:28:09,354 --> 00:28:11,186 can we figure out why, 396 00:28:11,323 --> 00:28:13,883 and whether there is anything we can do about it? 397 00:28:14,026 --> 00:28:15,460 That's the real challenge. 398 00:28:33,845 --> 00:28:36,837 NARRATOR: To predict if the oceans really are getting angrier, 399 00:28:36,982 --> 00:28:41,078 scientists need to look beyond anecdotal evidence. 400 00:28:41,220 --> 00:28:44,918 They need to understand how energy moves around the planet. 401 00:28:46,658 --> 00:28:48,956 Ocean currents are key. 402 00:28:53,699 --> 00:28:56,259 That's why oceanographer Bob Pickart and his team 403 00:28:56,401 --> 00:28:59,336 are out here in the frigid North Atlantic. 404 00:29:03,275 --> 00:29:06,711 They're searching for a new arm of the Global Conveyor- 405 00:29:06,845 --> 00:29:10,145 one of the world's most powerful current systems. 406 00:29:11,750 --> 00:29:13,479 Climate models suggest that the current 407 00:29:13,619 --> 00:29:15,883 lies a few hundred miles to the west, 408 00:29:16,021 --> 00:29:17,955 off the coast of Greenland. 409 00:29:19,291 --> 00:29:21,692 But Pickart is hearing reports that it's also been spotted 410 00:29:21,827 --> 00:29:24,319 way out here near Iceland. 411 00:29:26,865 --> 00:29:29,630 BOB PICKART: We thought we sort of had it figured out at this point, 412 00:29:29,768 --> 00:29:32,601 and then, 10 and behold, my Icelandic colleagues 413 00:29:32,738 --> 00:29:34,035 a few years back went out 414 00:29:34,172 --> 00:29:37,369 and accidentally discovered another deep current 415 00:29:37,509 --> 00:29:39,739 off the continental slope of Iceland, 416 00:29:39,878 --> 00:29:41,312 which is sort of, you know, 417 00:29:41,446 --> 00:29:43,813 turned the community on its ear a little bit. 418 00:29:45,951 --> 00:29:48,613 NARRATOR: The Global Conveyor is one of the most important features 419 00:29:48,754 --> 00:29:50,415 on the planet. 420 00:29:51,790 --> 00:29:53,724 It transfers heat around the globe 421 00:29:53,859 --> 00:29:56,328 and helps keep our climate stable. 422 00:29:59,398 --> 00:30:02,561 If Pickart can prove his Icelandic colleagues right, 423 00:30:02,701 --> 00:30:05,864 he'd force a rethink of how the system works. 424 00:30:07,606 --> 00:30:09,096 BALLARD: You know, it's truly amazing. 425 00:30:09,241 --> 00:30:13,337 We know the ocean currents have a direct impact on our climate, 426 00:30:13,478 --> 00:30:16,641 yet we don't know exactly where all those currents are. 427 00:30:16,782 --> 00:30:19,717 Despite our efforts to model the climate, 428 00:30:19,851 --> 00:30:22,479 it's just a prediction. 429 00:30:22,621 --> 00:30:25,283 NARRATOR: As Ballard knows from decades on the ocean, 430 00:30:25,424 --> 00:30:28,086 it's an immensely complex system. 431 00:30:29,227 --> 00:30:32,356 BALLARD: The ocean is anything but static. 432 00:30:32,497 --> 00:30:33,726 If you were a water molecule 433 00:30:33,865 --> 00:30:35,799 and wanted to travel around the planet, 434 00:30:35,934 --> 00:30:38,369 it would be like getting in this roller coaster. 435 00:30:38,503 --> 00:30:40,767 Lots of ups, lots of downs, 436 00:30:40,906 --> 00:30:43,841 and it's a massive amount of water that's moving. 437 00:30:55,654 --> 00:30:57,748 NARRATOR: The ride begins north of Iceland, 438 00:30:57,889 --> 00:31:00,153 where cooling water sinks. 439 00:31:13,905 --> 00:31:17,432 The drop is slow at first, but as the current builds, 440 00:31:17,576 --> 00:31:19,237 it gains momentum. 441 00:31:25,083 --> 00:31:29,850 Through ridges and trenches, over lava fields and endless plains... 442 00:31:31,456 --> 00:31:34,892 the water hurtles southward across the Equator... 443 00:31:37,129 --> 00:31:41,464 ...down the coast of South America like a giant deep-sea river. 444 00:31:45,437 --> 00:31:48,634 BALLARD: By the time this current reaches the southern ocean, 445 00:31:48,774 --> 00:31:50,538 it gets massive. 446 00:31:50,675 --> 00:31:53,201 There's no landmass to block it. 447 00:31:53,345 --> 00:31:55,109 So it builds and builds, 448 00:31:55,247 --> 00:32:01,016 and ultimately flows with the volume of 100 Amazon Rivers. 449 00:32:05,157 --> 00:32:06,682 NARRATOR;: At the bottom of the world, 450 00:32:06,825 --> 00:32:09,522 the southern ocean acts like a giant blender, 451 00:32:09,661 --> 00:32:12,289 mixing the world's seawater. 452 00:32:12,431 --> 00:32:13,660 BALLARD: Then it comes back north again, 453 00:32:13,799 --> 00:32:15,392 and when it gets to the tropics, 454 00:32:15,534 --> 00:32:18,868 it starts to warm up and begins to rise to the surface. 455 00:32:19,004 --> 00:32:22,338 It becomes the Gulf Stream now and starts heading back home. 456 00:32:22,474 --> 00:32:25,671 The whole circuit takes 1,000 years. 457 00:32:26,678 --> 00:32:28,407 NARRATOR: 1,000 years! 458 00:32:28,547 --> 00:32:31,676 And yet the continual cycling of all that heat and energy 459 00:32:31,817 --> 00:32:34,582 affects everything from long-term climate change 460 00:32:34,719 --> 00:32:37,120 to daily weather forecasts. 461 00:32:39,591 --> 00:32:42,151 BALLARD: We've got water rising, falling, spinning, 462 00:32:42,294 --> 00:32:44,456 circulating, bumping into things. 463 00:32:44,596 --> 00:32:47,395 And we try to take all of those complex factors, 464 00:32:47,532 --> 00:32:49,159 put them into a global model, 465 00:32:49,301 --> 00:32:51,736 and come up with a circulation system. 466 00:32:51,870 --> 00:32:53,634 Our best shot. 467 00:32:56,842 --> 00:32:58,332 NARRATOR: Of course, models are only as good 468 00:32:58,477 --> 00:33:00,673 as the information they're based on. 469 00:33:00,812 --> 00:33:02,246 And back in the North Atlantic, 470 00:33:02,380 --> 00:33:04,474 Pickart is discovering that we do, indeed, 471 00:33:04,616 --> 00:33:07,984 have a new arm of the current to worry about. 472 00:33:09,955 --> 00:33:13,220 To find out what impact it has, he now has to calculate 473 00:33:13,358 --> 00:33:16,555 how much water it adds to the Global Conveyor. 474 00:33:17,963 --> 00:33:20,625 BALLARD: We're now hearing that rising atmospheric temperatures 475 00:33:20,765 --> 00:33:23,598 are going to alter the ocean's circulation pattern. 476 00:33:23,735 --> 00:33:25,760 And ironically, Europe, for example, 477 00:33:25,904 --> 00:33:27,463 will get colder and colder. 478 00:33:27,606 --> 00:33:29,904 But we're not really going to know until we better understand 479 00:33:30,041 --> 00:33:33,341 how the entire system works. 480 00:33:33,478 --> 00:33:36,539 NARRATOR: Pickart's work is a step in the right direction. 481 00:33:36,681 --> 00:33:38,615 PICKART: We're predicting that about half of the dense water 482 00:33:38,750 --> 00:33:41,776 is actually flowing in this current that we just discovered. 483 00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:42,853 So if that's the case, 484 00:33:42,988 --> 00:33:45,514 we need to learn more about where it comes from, 485 00:33:45,657 --> 00:33:49,855 how it was formed, because it's crucially important. 486 00:33:49,995 --> 00:33:52,157 NARRATOR: While scientists like Pickart race to understand 487 00:33:52,297 --> 00:33:55,130 long-term changes to the Global Conveyor, 488 00:33:55,267 --> 00:33:58,396 others are already feeling their impact. 489 00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,075 In the deadly waters off South Africa, 490 00:34:04,209 --> 00:34:06,837 generations of fishermen like lan Cooke 491 00:34:06,978 --> 00:34:08,912 have fished a segment of the Global Conveyor 492 00:34:09,047 --> 00:34:10,811 called the Aghulas Current, 493 00:34:10,949 --> 00:34:13,509 which hugs the South African coastline. 494 00:34:15,086 --> 00:34:17,612 That's where the tuna are. 495 00:34:17,756 --> 00:34:20,817 IAN COOKE: The fish sort of live on the edges of the currents. 496 00:34:20,959 --> 00:34:23,656 If we don't get the current, we won't get the fish. 497 00:34:23,795 --> 00:34:24,785 Just how it works. 498 00:34:24,930 --> 00:34:28,423 Right weather, right water, that's it. 499 00:34:29,534 --> 00:34:31,502 NARRATOR: Problem is, recent climate patterns 500 00:34:31,636 --> 00:34:34,071 seem to have forced the current-and the fish- 501 00:34:34,205 --> 00:34:36,071 further offshore. 502 00:34:40,245 --> 00:34:41,735 COOKE: Very unusual. 503 00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,349 It's almost like the current's missing us, you know, 504 00:34:44,482 --> 00:34:47,452 instead of the water pushing in by us, 505 00:34:47,586 --> 00:34:50,055 it's forcing us west. 506 00:34:50,188 --> 00:34:52,179 And that makes it difficult. 507 00:34:57,062 --> 00:34:59,963 NARRATOR: The shifting current means more days at sea, 508 00:35:00,098 --> 00:35:03,728 higher fuel costs, and rougher water. 509 00:35:08,106 --> 00:35:10,871 COOKE: Nine out of ten times, when the weather's the worst, 510 00:35:11,009 --> 00:35:13,205 that's the best fishing. 511 00:35:13,345 --> 00:35:17,976 So, you know, we sort of fish, like, on the limit of the fronts, you know? 512 00:35:18,116 --> 00:35:21,245 On the leading edges of it, so we try not to be there. 513 00:35:21,386 --> 00:35:25,118 But, I mean, the weather changes hourly here, so, 514 00:35:25,256 --> 00:35:27,486 you get caught, you get caught, you know? 515 00:35:29,361 --> 00:35:32,194 NARRATOR: It's a risk all fishermen take. 516 00:35:32,330 --> 00:35:35,231 But the further out they go to chase fish, 517 00:35:35,367 --> 00:35:37,392 the greater the danger. 518 00:35:46,277 --> 00:35:48,177 COOKE: We're adapting as we speak. 519 00:35:48,313 --> 00:35:49,280 I mean, that's what's happening now. 520 00:35:49,414 --> 00:35:51,576 We're adapting to the weather conditions, 521 00:35:51,716 --> 00:35:53,184 the ocean conditions. 522 00:35:53,318 --> 00:35:55,650 If you don't adapt, you're going to drop out. 523 00:36:11,870 --> 00:36:14,771 NARRATOR: And currents are only part of the equation. 524 00:36:17,008 --> 00:36:19,807 To truly understand how the oceans are changing, 525 00:36:19,944 --> 00:36:20,934 we have to look at all the ways 526 00:36:21,079 --> 00:36:24,344 the ocean water gets circulated and mixed. 527 00:36:28,353 --> 00:36:32,312 For over a century, scientists thought currents, winds and tides 528 00:36:32,457 --> 00:36:34,653 did all the mixing- 529 00:36:34,793 --> 00:36:37,091 not only churning the roller coaster, 530 00:36:37,228 --> 00:36:41,461 but also moving vast amounts of heat, gases and nutrients. 531 00:36:44,402 --> 00:36:47,269 BALLARD: All that mixing is what keeps the oceans alive and fresh. 532 00:36:47,405 --> 00:36:49,237 The problem is, when you add it all up, 533 00:36:49,374 --> 00:36:51,274 the energy needed to do it, 534 00:36:51,409 --> 00:36:54,970 there's just no way currents, tides and wind can do it all. 535 00:36:56,414 --> 00:36:59,509 So clearly, there's got to be some other input. 536 00:37:04,689 --> 00:37:06,589 NARRATOR: Bioengineer Kakani Katija 537 00:37:06,725 --> 00:37:09,888 thinks she's homing in on just that missing link. 538 00:37:14,265 --> 00:37:16,893 KAKANI KATIJA: It's, you know, kind of the human tendency 539 00:37:17,035 --> 00:37:20,938 to study things that are, you know, easily observable, right? 540 00:37:21,072 --> 00:37:23,803 So, all of us can see at the surface of the ocean, 541 00:37:23,942 --> 00:37:27,742 you know, atmospheric winds, winds create waves. 542 00:37:27,879 --> 00:37:31,110 And what we don't see is what's happening 543 00:37:31,249 --> 00:37:33,343 in the mid layers of the ocean. 544 00:37:33,485 --> 00:37:35,579 What is happening deeper? 545 00:37:36,888 --> 00:37:39,084 May I hand this to you? 546 00:37:39,224 --> 00:37:42,524 NARRATOR: No matter how turbulent surface waves and tides may be, 547 00:37:42,660 --> 00:37:45,686 some estimate that only about 10% of their energy 548 00:37:45,830 --> 00:37:48,595 trickles down to deeper depths. 549 00:37:48,733 --> 00:37:51,259 Not enough to churn much ocean. 550 00:37:51,402 --> 00:37:53,496 KATIJA: And that's where, you know, potentially, 551 00:37:53,638 --> 00:37:56,073 animals could be involved. 552 00:37:56,207 --> 00:37:58,767 We're finding that swimming animals 553 00:37:58,910 --> 00:38:02,904 have the potential to mix the ocean. 554 00:38:06,451 --> 00:38:08,510 NARRATOR: Animals! 555 00:38:08,653 --> 00:38:11,850 Everything from jellies and sardines 556 00:38:11,990 --> 00:38:15,517 right on up to tuna and whales, 557 00:38:15,660 --> 00:38:19,756 all moving vast amounts of water as they swim. 558 00:38:30,909 --> 00:38:34,072 Kakani wants to measure just how much. 559 00:38:41,953 --> 00:38:44,581 It's called the butterfly effect. 560 00:38:46,124 --> 00:38:48,786 When something small like this... 561 00:38:54,499 --> 00:38:57,400 ...ultimately gives rise to something big... 562 00:38:59,504 --> 00:39:01,097 ...like this. 563 00:39:06,511 --> 00:39:08,843 It's an effect nearly impossible to measure, 564 00:39:08,980 --> 00:39:11,039 let alone incorporate into climate models 565 00:39:11,182 --> 00:39:14,083 that tell us if the oceans are getting angrier. 566 00:39:15,486 --> 00:39:18,080 And yet here in these remote waters of Panama, 567 00:39:18,223 --> 00:39:22,524 Kakani Katija is trying to do just that... 568 00:39:22,660 --> 00:39:25,391 if she can get past the venomous snakes. 569 00:39:25,530 --> 00:39:27,089 KATIJA: There's one right there. 570 00:39:28,566 --> 00:39:29,761 Don't come towards me. 571 00:39:29,901 --> 00:39:31,027 So here in Panama, 572 00:39:31,169 --> 00:39:32,466 one of the things that we deal with here 573 00:39:32,604 --> 00:39:34,436 are sea snakes in the water, 574 00:39:34,572 --> 00:39:37,041 and as you can see right now, 575 00:39:37,175 --> 00:39:38,540 they are hunting around our boat. 576 00:39:38,676 --> 00:39:41,668 So just a part of the day job. 577 00:39:44,148 --> 00:39:45,809 NARRATOR: Tonight, Kakani is investigating 578 00:39:45,950 --> 00:39:49,079 gelatinous creatures called salps, 579 00:39:49,220 --> 00:39:52,053 which band together in long chains. 580 00:39:54,826 --> 00:39:55,759 Her plan? 581 00:39:55,894 --> 00:39:58,625 Light up the water column with a high-powered laser, 582 00:39:58,763 --> 00:40:00,390 record the salps' motion, 583 00:40:00,531 --> 00:40:03,296 and measure how much water they disturb. 584 00:40:06,070 --> 00:40:09,096 KATIJA: There is so much ambient stuff in the water, you know- 585 00:40:09,240 --> 00:40:13,438 it could be sand, silt, detritus, name it- 586 00:40:13,578 --> 00:40:16,604 they're illuminated by the laser. 587 00:40:16,748 --> 00:40:18,580 NARRATOR: By watching how these particles move 588 00:40:18,716 --> 00:40:21,708 as animals swim through them, 589 00:40:21,853 --> 00:40:25,187 the team can calculate how much water is being mixed. 590 00:40:29,460 --> 00:40:31,155 When they first started their research, 591 00:40:31,296 --> 00:40:32,695 Kakani and her team were startled 592 00:40:32,830 --> 00:40:35,925 by the amount the creatures could move, 593 00:40:36,067 --> 00:40:38,331 both by swirling it up as they passed, 594 00:40:38,469 --> 00:40:41,029 and by dragging it along behind them. 595 00:40:44,609 --> 00:40:47,169 KATIJA: This is a mechanism that allows smaller animals 596 00:40:47,312 --> 00:40:52,580 to achieve appreciable mixing that was completely neglected. 597 00:40:52,717 --> 00:40:53,775 NARRATOR: With every stroke, 598 00:40:53,918 --> 00:40:57,013 they transfer energy into the sea and mix it up, 599 00:40:57,155 --> 00:41:01,319 as Kakani demonstrates using a special fluorescent dye. 600 00:41:11,469 --> 00:41:14,530 How much energy, though, isn't intuitive. 601 00:41:20,812 --> 00:41:22,780 KATIJA: The original thought was only large animals 602 00:41:22,914 --> 00:41:27,078 will be able to mix the water around them substantially. 603 00:41:27,218 --> 00:41:30,188 But what we're able to show with some of our field measurements, 604 00:41:30,321 --> 00:41:31,720 as well as some work in the lab, 605 00:41:31,856 --> 00:41:34,791 is that smaller animals are actually also able 606 00:41:34,926 --> 00:41:38,556 to generate mixing at those same scales. 607 00:41:43,634 --> 00:41:44,999 BALLARD: That may seem far-fetched, 608 00:41:45,136 --> 00:41:46,968 but when you sit down and do the math, you know, 609 00:41:47,105 --> 00:41:49,597 there are billions and billions of tiny animals 610 00:41:49,741 --> 00:41:51,266 moving around in the ocean all the time, 611 00:41:51,409 --> 00:41:55,277 and, you know, that could add up to a lot of water being churned. 612 00:41:57,949 --> 00:41:59,041 NARRATOR: At the surface, 613 00:41:59,183 --> 00:42:02,118 this energy gets swamped by more dramatic forces, 614 00:42:02,253 --> 00:42:04,483 like waves and tides. 615 00:42:05,556 --> 00:42:08,048 But dip just 300 feet deeper 616 00:42:08,192 --> 00:42:11,560 and you'll find a different, calmer world. 617 00:42:16,434 --> 00:42:21,531 Down here, it's easy to imagine how even one small animal, 618 00:42:21,672 --> 00:42:23,800 not to mention countless millions, 619 00:42:23,941 --> 00:42:26,501 can have butterfly-like effects. 620 00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:44,060 KATIJA: If we can show that 621 00:42:44,195 --> 00:42:47,495 the vast majority of organisms in the ocean 622 00:42:47,632 --> 00:42:50,260 are able to achieve appreciable mixing, 623 00:42:50,401 --> 00:42:54,395 I think it would be hard to ignore that input. 624 00:42:58,476 --> 00:43:00,535 NARRATOR: An input that's hardly been considered, 625 00:43:00,678 --> 00:43:04,672 let alone worked into existing ocean and climate models. 626 00:43:08,553 --> 00:43:12,888 Once she knows how much energy each tiny critter can exert, 627 00:43:13,024 --> 00:43:14,355 Kakani can scale up her findings 628 00:43:14,492 --> 00:43:18,759 to measure the overall impact these animals have... 629 00:43:18,896 --> 00:43:22,491 the hurricane side of the butterfly effect. 630 00:43:22,633 --> 00:43:23,964 KATIJA: We're talking about the ocean. 631 00:43:24,102 --> 00:43:27,003 [laughs] I mean, it's huge, right? 632 00:43:27,138 --> 00:43:30,904 I mean, the majority of Earth is ocean. 633 00:43:31,042 --> 00:43:36,412 If indeed we are missing a huge input of power, 634 00:43:36,547 --> 00:43:40,279 because we've ignored the impact that swimming animals have, 635 00:43:40,418 --> 00:43:44,116 our view of the ocean may be totally altered. 636 00:43:45,990 --> 00:43:49,153 NARRATOR; Whether it's wind, tides, currents, 637 00:43:49,293 --> 00:43:52,695 or the collective swishing of billions of fish tails, 638 00:43:52,830 --> 00:43:56,095 understanding the forces that keep the ocean in motion 639 00:43:56,234 --> 00:44:00,102 is crucial to predicting how it's likely to change. 640 00:44:02,573 --> 00:44:04,007 And the picture that's emerging 641 00:44:04,142 --> 00:44:07,168 is one of a hotter, more energetic planet 642 00:44:07,311 --> 00:44:10,281 and bigger, angrier seas. 643 00:44:22,493 --> 00:44:26,259 The oceans have always been a dangerous place for us humans, 644 00:44:26,397 --> 00:44:28,365 and from what Dr. Robert Ballard has seen 645 00:44:28,499 --> 00:44:30,661 on his journey around the world, 646 00:44:30,801 --> 00:44:33,327 things are only getting worse. 647 00:44:34,939 --> 00:44:37,636 BALLARD: The earth is undergoing tremendous change right now, 648 00:44:37,775 --> 00:44:41,370 change that we haven't experienced in the past. 649 00:44:43,714 --> 00:44:47,014 NARRATOR: We've got a lot to learn about how it all works. 650 00:44:49,053 --> 00:44:51,750 But there is one common thread. 651 00:44:54,058 --> 00:44:54,957 BALLARD: The world's getting hotter, 652 00:44:55,092 --> 00:44:56,856 and that's putting more energy into the system. 653 00:44:56,994 --> 00:44:59,326 So from there, you just have to follow the trail, 654 00:44:59,463 --> 00:45:02,489 and that leads you to more violent storms and bigger waves. 655 00:45:06,003 --> 00:45:08,973 NARRATOR: We know the world is heating up. 656 00:45:10,107 --> 00:45:13,338 We know heat energizes the ocean and atmosphere, 657 00:45:13,477 --> 00:45:15,844 powering more intense storms. 658 00:45:17,615 --> 00:45:22,018 Bigger storms create higher winds, 659 00:45:22,153 --> 00:45:25,316 which in turn churn up higher seas. 660 00:45:40,805 --> 00:45:42,637 BALLARD: So whether you like it or not, 661 00:45:42,773 --> 00:45:45,504 global warming is happening. 662 00:45:45,643 --> 00:45:48,044 And we know that humans are behind at least some of this heat, 663 00:45:48,179 --> 00:45:50,238 and maybe a lot of it. 664 00:45:50,381 --> 00:45:51,712 We're burning oil, we're burning coal, 665 00:45:51,849 --> 00:45:53,146 and that all traps heat. 666 00:45:53,284 --> 00:45:54,479 We know this. 667 00:45:54,619 --> 00:45:56,713 We're seeing the effects. 668 00:45:59,523 --> 00:46:02,515 NARRATOR: These effects will impact everyone- 669 00:46:02,660 --> 00:46:05,425 even people who crave the big waves. 670 00:46:08,499 --> 00:46:10,593 VAN BASTOLAER: You want it and you don't want it, you know? 671 00:46:10,735 --> 00:46:13,067 And you want it because that's your job, 672 00:46:13,204 --> 00:46:16,037 that's what I live for, that's what I love it, too. 673 00:46:16,173 --> 00:46:19,837 But you don't want it because my house is next to the ocean, 674 00:46:19,977 --> 00:46:22,412 and I don't want to lose my house. 675 00:46:25,750 --> 00:46:27,514 NARRATOR: Neither do the 100 million others 676 00:46:27,652 --> 00:46:29,950 who live near the sea. 677 00:46:39,664 --> 00:46:41,496 If storms get more severe, 678 00:46:41,632 --> 00:46:45,159 wave heights grow, and sea levels rise as predicted, 679 00:46:45,303 --> 00:46:48,398 those people could be forced from their homes. 680 00:46:55,680 --> 00:47:00,140 Damage to ships and coastlines could cost trillions of dollars. 681 00:47:01,352 --> 00:47:04,413 And that's just by the middle of the century. 682 00:47:06,223 --> 00:47:09,022 KATIJA: There's a lot of questions that, honestly, 683 00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:10,685 I thought have already been answered 684 00:47:10,828 --> 00:47:14,662 that we're nowhere near understanding yet. 685 00:47:14,799 --> 00:47:18,201 But it's clear, at least in some of these instances, 686 00:47:18,336 --> 00:47:21,101 that we are having effect on the ocean, 687 00:47:21,238 --> 00:47:25,334 and, you know, there are some things that we can do now. 688 00:47:27,278 --> 00:47:29,804 BALLARD: So really, we have two choices. 689 00:47:29,947 --> 00:47:32,075 We can move to higher ground, 690 00:47:32,216 --> 00:47:36,551 design stronger ships, and build higher seawalls. 691 00:47:36,687 --> 00:47:42,182 Or, we face the facts and stop adding more heat to the system. 692 00:47:43,361 --> 00:47:45,352 The way I see it, 693 00:47:45,496 --> 00:47:47,965 we have no choice. 56035

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