All language subtitles for Killer Typhoon PBS NOVA 2014 720p HDTV MVGroup

NARRATOR:
Typhoon Haiyan,

a storm for the record books.

We knew this was going to get
pretty big.

NARRATOR:
Drawing power
from ocean and air,

it becomes a savage monster
nearly 300 miles across.

Winds of 195 miles per hour,
gusts up to 240.

Right now it's as mean

as a cyclone can actually get
on this planet.

This actually went
off the scale.

It was a monster storm.

NARRATOR:
On November 8, 2013,
it becomes what could be

the most powerful typhoon
in history to make landfall.

This storm peaked right as it
was going ashore

at the Philippines.

That's the tragedy.

NARRATOR:
Haiyan brings terrifying winds,

torrential rain
and a deadly, high-speed flood.

MAN:
20-foot storm surge came
almost instantaneously,

like a tsunami.

The devastation
underneath this storm

is unlike anything else
we've seen

underneath a trocal system
before.

NARRATOR:
In its terrible aftermath,
thousands of lives lost.

We did not expect that there
will be a flood

that will be coming.

So many died because
of the water--

neighbors,
families, their families.

NARRATOR:
Almost immediately
the questions begin.

MAN:
Why so much casualty
with this typhoon?

Even our own weather center
underestimated the surge.

NARRATOR:
Could the deadly flood--
the storm surge--

have been predicted
and catastrophe averted?

We really have a long way to go
with storm surge modeling.

We've come a long way
but we have a long way to go.

NARRATOR:
Is Haiyan a sign of things
to come,

the first of a new breed
of super typhoon?

MAN:
Are we loading the deck

towards more intse storms
in the future

as we provide a warmer base
of ocean water

for these storms to tap into?

NARRATOR:
What could happen

if the next killer storm strikes
closer to home?

If that storm had hit
the southeastern U.S.,

it was so powerful it would have
been as much a disaster.

NARRATOR:
The race is on to understand
"The Killer Typhoon",

right now on NOVA.

Major funding for NOVA
is provided by the following:

Supporting NOVA and promoting
public understanding of science.

And by the Corporation
for Public Broadcasting.

And by contributions
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Additional funding is provided
by Millicent Bell, through:

NARRATOR:
Typhoons.

Explosive storms
that bring torrential rain,

flooding...

and screaming winds.

Typhoon is the term given
to hurricanes that form

in the northwestern
Pacific Ocean.

Hurricanes and typhoons are some
the most massive storms

on the planet,

and we see very strong typhoons
in the western Pacific

more commonly than people
may think.

NARRATOR:
Here among the tropical islands
north of Australia

are some of the warmest waters
on the planet,

fertile breeding ground
for monster storms.

By late October 2013,

this region has already produced
14 typhoons.

And now unlucky number 15
begins to form,

a killer whose name will soon
become synonymous

with devastation and
heartbreaking loss...

Haiyan.

Eight days before it reaches
land, Haiyan begins

as what's called
a tropical depression,

a system of thunderstorms

with winds less than 30 miles
an hour near Micronesia.

In Hawaii the Navy and Air
Force's Joint

Typhoon Warning Center monitors
Pacific storms to protect U.S.

military and government assets.

LT. THOMAS MILLS:
We first noticed
a weak disturbance

southeast of Pohnpei Island,

which is
in the Micronesian Islands,

the easternmost quadrant of the
Micronesian Islands,

on November 1.

We kept tracking there
until we kind of saw

a broad general circulation.

NARRATOR:
Tropical storms form over water
80 degrees Fahrenheit or warmer.

The heat drives evaporation.

And as the rising vapor cools,
it forms clouds,

releasing energy
as wind and rain.

The warmer the water,

the more energy available
to power the storm.

We knew we had a pretty rich set
of ingredients,

because we had warm ocean
temperatures underneath it,

it was pretty good circulation

that had build up, so now this
one's going to get pretty big.

NARRATOR:
Over the next 24 hours, the
storm system continues to grow

in size and strength.

The rotation of the earth causes

the strengthening system
to spin--

counterclockwise
in the Northern Hemisphere.

When wind speeds top 25 knots,
about 30 miles per hour,

the Navy issues its first alert.

Our first warning went out
on November 3

at 1:00 a.m.
Eastern Standard Time.

At that point our model fields
extended out to five days,

but five days out there was
a lot of uncertainty.

NARRATOR:
Very early on,
the computers predicted

that Haiyan would continue
tracking

over a layer of unusually thick
warm water--

86 degrees
to a depth of 300 feet,

more than enough fuel to fan
the flames of a strong storm.

But just how strong
no one could yet know.

MILLS:
In the forecasting community,

intensity is
the difficult thing to forecast.

We knew it was going
to be a strong storm.

We didn't know exactly how
strong,

but we knew it was going
to be a big one.

NARRATOR:
On November 4, 36 hours
after the first warning,

Haiyan becomes a typhoon,
now with sustained wind speeds

of more than 65 knots,
about miles an hour.

And it is growing stronger
with alarming speed.

MILLS:
At that point it was just south
of Guam.

Within the next 24 hours
after that,

intensified 65 knots,
so it doubled in intensity.

And at that point we were
tracking it at 130 knots.

130 knots is considered
a super typhoon.

NARRATOR:
A super typhoon...

with sustained wind speeds
above 150 miles an hour.

As destructive as the most
notorious killer hurricanes,

like Katrina that
hit New Orleans in 2005.

Andrew, that hit Florida with
a 17-foot storm surge in 1992...

And even Camille, in 1969,

with wind speeds near 200 miles
an hour at landfall.

And with every passing minute,

Haiyan continues to grow
in size and power

and looks likely to slam

into one of the region's
most vulnerable targets:

the Philippines...

More than 7,000 islands,
120,000 square miles of land,

about the size of Italy

but with nearly double
the number of people

and a population density
ten times that of the U.S.

It's considered a newly
industrialized country

with a growing economy,

but millions of people
still live precariously,

while also facing a multitude
of natural threats.

The Philippines is subject

to a variety of different
natural hazards

including volcanoes, typhoons,

earthquakes, flooding,
landslides.

But at the same time, it is
a socially vulnerable place

with many, many people living
in extreme poverty.

NARRATOR:
The millions
of Filipino people

living in coastal communities

are accustomed to occasional
typhoons, even super typhoons.

In the days
leading up to landfall,

most residents are taking
the storm's approach in stride.

FATHER HECTOR:
It was not an alarming thing
for us.

We've been used to typhoon.

And so it was not something
extraordinary

to be worried about.

Everything was just so normal.

I mean, day-to-day operation
of the grocery.

People are buying,
but they're not in panic.

NARRATOR:
But Haiyan is already far
stronger than most typhoons,

thanks to near ideal
atmospheric conditions.

In a strengthening typhoon,
warm air rises through the eye

like smoke up a chimney.

Crosswinds called wind shear can
disrupt or block that flow,

weakening the storm.

But in the vicinity of Haiyan,
wind shear is low.

Additionally, the column of
rising air benefits from winds

in the upper atmosphere.

In the upper levels, you need
to have outflow from the storm,

and that's basically wind in a
position that's going to carry

the energy that comes up
through the atmosphere

away from e center
of the storm.

NARRATOR:
The high-altitude winds
create a suction effect

at the top of the storm,

drawing even more warm air in
at the bottom of the column,

feeding the storm

like a roaring blaze
in a well-ventilated fireplace.

EVANS:
I'm drawing lots of moisture,
lots of air, hot energy

up into the chimney.

I've got all the ingredients
down at the bottom.

I'm going to grow a nice,
hot, warm, crackling fire.

NARRATOR:
As the storm reaches
its peak intensity,

the atmospheric pressure
in the eye drops,

possibly to one of the lowest
levels ever observed,

on par with the previous record,
which was set 35 years earlier.

The lowest recorded atmospheric
pressure ever on the planet

was recorded in a super typhoon,
Super Typhoon Tip from 1979.

Early on with Typhoon Haiyan,
many of us suspected

that it could rival Tip in terms
of its strength

just based on the structure and
the intensity that we saw

from various satellite datasets.

NARRATOR:
Low pressure is an indication

of how rapidly air is moving up
through the eye.

Looking down at the top
of the storm,

satellite images also reveal
that there is heavy outflow

at high altitude-- not one,
but two streams of warm air.

MILLS:
We were able to identify what
we call dual channel outflow.

That means you have an enhanced
outflow situation,

which just allows that system
to breathe better, vents better,

allows it to grow and intensify
even more.

NARRATOR:
And there was yet another sign
of the storm's incredible power.

In the Western Pacific
we use a technique,

it's called the Dvorak method,

and it's where you actually look
at the cloud structure,

the banding
of a particular typhoon,

and you create a Dvorak number.

NARRATOR:
Dvorak numbers indicate
wind speed.

The highest number
on the scale is eight,

reserved for the most powerful
storms on record.

MILLS:
On November 7 at 7:00 a.m.

our sat analyst looked back
at me and she said,

"Sir, we are at 8.0/8.0."

8.0/8.0 in the Dvorak scales
corresponds to 170 knots.

NARRATOR:
170 knots,
195 miles an hour.

DAVID ROBINSON:
This is a visible
satellite image

of the storm
at its strongest point

and you can look right down
in the eye

and see the ocean waters below.

The strongest winds--
this is a daytime image--

are right around the eye wall.

This storm is reaching its peak
strength at this time.

This is just an incredibly
powerful storm.

NARRATOR:
On the afternoon of November 7,

the Philippine weather service
upgrades their typhoon warning

to storm signal four,
the highest possible.

But for those on the ground
in harm's way,

there is still little tangible
sign of what is about to hit.

There was only a few rains,

and even when we were already
signal number four,

very fine weather.

So... me, I was so surprised.

I was even telling myself
and my kids

that it's okay to have
signal number four.

NARRATOR:
Finally, those living along
the coast begin to take note.

But preparations are
far from adequate.

We started to pack our things.

We buy plastics, cellophane, big
cellophane, plastic cellophanes

and then we put
the books, our TV,

we covered it with cellophane.

NARRATOR:
Haiyan is now almost 300 miles
across.

Forecasters around the world are
watching intently,

looking hopefully for some sign
that it might weaken.

EMANUEL:
As Haiyan approached land

and the forecasters got better
data from satellites,

it became very clear

that this was a storm
of unusual intensity.

We were looking at a potentially
catastrophic storm.

NARRATOR:
One reason for alarm: Haiyan
is unusually consistent.

It intensified very rapidly

and is now maintaining
that intensity.

Typically tropical cyclones,
typhoons and hurricanes

will go through an ebb and flow
cycle in terms of intensity.

One of the best examples
that I can think of

is Hurricane Katrina.

As it was making its way
through the Gulf of Mexico,

it blossomed into a category
five storm relatively quickly,

and that was because it moved
over a pool of warm water

called the Loop Current.

After it moved
off of that Loop Current,

intensity went down some.

Typhoon Haiyan maintained a
relatively consistent track

and a relatively consistent
intensity

as it was traversing
the warm Pacific Ocean.

NARRATOR:
With ample warm water
and undisturbed by wind shear,

Haiyan shows no sign
of weakening.

SHEPHERD:
It was a strong storm,
it remained a strong storm,

it made landfall
as a strong storm.

Right now it's as big and mean

as a cyclone can actually
probably get on this planet--

winds of 195 miles per hour,
gusts up to 240.

This storm peaked right
as it was going ashore

in the Philippines.

That's the tragedy.

MILLS:
Just knowing that lives were
going to be lost,

infrastructure was going
to be destroyed.

It's gut-wrenching.

And so I told my wife,
"This is going to be ugly.

People are going to die
on this one."

NARRATOR:
Finally, at 4:40 a.m. local time
on the morning of November 8,

Typhoon Haiyan hits the east
coast of the Philippines

and unleashes a nightmare.

Most homes and buildings simply
cannot withstand

such intense,
200-mile-an-hour winds.

SUSAN TAN:
Roofs flying,

and some things that are flying

which is unbelievable things--

motorbikes flying,
even air-conditioning units.

GEORGINA BULASA:
Our house was already shaking

as if the wind is going
to uproot the house.

NARRATOR:
Residents take shelter
in a local church.

I saw the windows already gone.

And wind coming inside,
with the mist of water,

and it's all white,
it's all white.

Circling--
(imitates wind howling).

ROBINSON:
The wind speeds themselves
were as if you had

a moderate to strong tornado
coming through.

Tornadoes pass over
in a minute or two.

These winds are blowing for an
hour or two in some locations.

NARRATOR:
The wind shreds countless homes.

CARMELITA BANTILAN (translated):
The roof was blown away.

I was so scared,

praying to the heavens, saying,
"Please stop this rain."

At 5:00 a.m.,
our house was destroyed.

NARRATOR:
Families find themselves exposed

to the full fury
of the elements,

improvising ways
to protect themselves.

CARLITO ARIAS:
This was where we hid
after our house collapsed.

We stayed right here.

I crouched over all of them.

I called their names.

I said, "Sarah, take care
of Precious, our baby."

Over here was Kristel and Laiza.

There was Jamaica, Marife,
Aaron, and Angel.

I huddled them together.

ROBINSON:
This actually went
off the scale.

It was a monster storm,

a textbook example

of a classically strong
super typhoon.

This was a terrifying storm.

NARRATOR:
The city of Tacloban on Leyte
Island, home to 200,000,

takes the full force
of the storm.

Almost immediately, the local
hospital is threatened.

The medical staff scrambles to
move patients away from windows

and exterior walls.

We instructed our patients to
get out of their rooms

and to slowly,
to be on the basement

where, we think at that time,
was safe for us.

We place our patients here

only with their IV,
with their intravenous fluids.

So here they pile up here.

NARRATOR:
Normally, seeking shelter
on a low floor

offers protection
from the wind and rain.

But now there's a new
and far deadlier threat--

storm surge.

Storm surge is one of the most
hazardous aspects

of any typhoon or hurricane.

JEFF WEBER:
This storm was so intense,

it had been developed for
so long across the ocean,

that it had an incredible amount
of water behind it.

As this was coming onshore,

the storm surge was
as high as 20 feet.

NARRATOR:
A storm surge begins when wind
pushes water

across the surface of the ocean.

That displacement pulls more
water upward from below.

If the storm maintains
its strength,

the continuing churn sets up
a vertical circulation,

an underwater wave.

The warmer the water, the larger
the storm, the faster the winds,

the bigger the wave.

As it approaches land and
the water becomes shallower,

the wave bulges upward,
causing sea level to rise.

The incredible intensity of
Haiyan drives a huge storm surge

which is now crashing
over the coastline.

It's unlike anything the people
here have experienced

in the past.

With water now just seconds away
from the hospital,

the decision to move patients
lower in the building

has put them all
in grave danger.

PAULO PARDILLA:
The first water was up to here.

Only clear water.

Then after that we see
the surge, the wind

and the flood,
which was up to here,

that was... the color was black.

Blackish water was coming.

We try to assist our patients
and to get to the second floor

to get up so that
we will be safe.

NARRATOR:
At the local church, the wind
has destroyed the roof

so when the surge pours
into the ground floor

there's nowhere to hide.

FATHER HECTOR:
And I said okay, I cannot go up
and take refuge,

but I cannot go down anymore

because the water was rising up
here, so that's the thing.

It's either the water
or the wind.

It's almost like the devil
and the deep blue sea.

NARRATOR:
Almost every typhoon brings
some flooding,

but this typhoon is something
else entirely.

In minutes, the storm surge
ravages the coastline,

sweeping away weak buildings,

bringing floodwaters
20 feet deep.

One reason for the extreme
height of the surge

is Tacloban's location.

The city happens to sit

inside a relatively shallow,
protected bay.

As the surge approaches,

the shallow offshore terrain
pushes the water up.

And at the same time, the narrow
confines of the bay

squeeze the water, causing it
to rise even further.

HAL NEEDHAM:
In a storm surge event,

strong onshore winds can really
funnel water into these bays,

so it's a little bit
counterintuitive.

These areas that tend to be the
safest for cities or marinas

in a storm surge event
often are the most dangerous.

NARRATOR:
The height of the surge brings

horrendous flooding
and destruction,

but there's another reason
that the surge is so deadly.

The exceptional thing
about this storm surge

with Super Typhoon Haiyan was
the speed at which it came

into some of these areas like
around the city of Tacloban.

Storm surges generally kind
of come in in increments,

a foot, a foot or two,
a meter at a time.

NARRATOR:
One recent example
of a gradual surge--

Hurricane Sandy.

The powerful storm took 24 hours
to push up to 14 feet of water

onto New York and New Jersey.

But Haiyan's 20-foot storm surge
arrives in just minutes.

WEBER:
Video from this storm shows the
20-foot storm surge came

almost instantaneously
like a tsunami,

and so the devastation
underneath the storm

is unlike anything else
we have seen

underneath a tropical system
on this planet before.

NARRATOR:
For those near the coast,
there is no escape.

And for those whose houses
have been destroyed,

the rushing water is deadly.

CARLITO ARIAS (translated):
Then the water came in.

I told them,
"Get up, up, water."

And just like that,
the water rose to my chest.

It was not a normal flood
from rainwater

but a wave coming in
from the shore.

It was so sudden.

It was at my ankles,
then suddenly up to my chest,

and the next wave brought
the water up to my neck

until I was completely
submerged.

My child held onto my shoulder
to keep me near.

NARRATOR:
It is rapidly shifting winds
offshore

that are causing the surge
to come in

with the speed of a tsunami.

As the rotating storm
approaches,

the first winds to strike the
bay come from north of the eye,

blowing north to south.

That powerful force initially
shoves water away from the city.

The winds were actually blowing
offshore and that was keeping

the water away or even producing
what we call

a negative storm surge,

where sometimes water is
actually pushed out of the bay.

NARRATOR:
Then, as the storm passes, winds
coming from south of the eye,

blowing in the opposite
direction, come into play.

Water rushes back into the bay,

pushed powerfully forward
by the reversing winds.

And that's what produced

the sudden, dangerous and deadly
storm surge.

NARRATOR:
The city of Tacloban
is inundated.

At the hospital, the staff uses
floating mattresses

to rescue the old and infirm.

This is the level of the water.

Up to here the patient was
floating.

We slowly assist the patient
in the hospital bed.

There is a gushing of wind,

there is a strong current
of the water.

The other patients were
terrified, were in panic

and we assist the patients
to be in that bed.

The bed was to slowly carry
the patient up to here

so that we can have rescue here.

GEORGINA BULASA:
The water came so sudden.

My children were crying.

They were all,
they were in panic.
GEORGINA BULASA:
The water came so sudden.

Everything floated like a paper.

The refrigerator, the divider

the flat screen TV
and everything.

It floated like a paper.

NARRATOR:
They had steeled themselves for
hi winds and torrential rain.

But there was no way they could
have foreseen

this huge wave
of fast-moving water

so unlike anything anyone living
here had ever experienced.

We never consider
the storm surge.

And the destruction that it
would bring us.

ROBINSON:
It was a combination of the
incredibly strong winds

and the massive storm surge,

and if you were in harm's way,

you may have lost

If you didn't lose your life,

I guarantee you
you were terrified.

NARRATOR:
20 hours after Haiyan makes
landfall,

great swaths
of the 7,000-plus islands

that make up the Philippine
archipelago are devastated.

At least 6,000 dead,
1,800 missing,

an estimated four million people
homeless.

In the immediate aftermath,
survivors struggle to understand

why this storm brought
so much suffering.

FATHER HECTOR:
Why so much dead, so much
casualty, with this typhoon?

The media, the local media,

even our own weather center,
underestimated the surge.

They were only monitoring the
direction of this typhoon,

the speed and the strength

But never mentioning
about the surge.

That's one of the reasons
they were confident

they were staying at home,

because they do not know
what is a storm surge.

They could have evacuated,

mandatory evacuation
for all the people living

in the sea line.

One or two kilometers inland.

But the thing,
it did not happen.

(conversing in local language)

So they said that
during the typhoon,

they were actually here,
they did not evacuate.

They were here; there were
three families inside.

And when the surge came in,
it destroyed the house

and split them up,

and in the process, they lost
a lot of their family members.

NARRATOR:
The Philippine weather service
did predict a large storm surge,

but no one expected that it
would come so quickly

into places like Tacloban.

Part of the challenge is
in the difficulty of predicting

just how intense
a typhoon will be

the moment
when it reaches land.

NEEDHAM:
That becomes a little bit
difficult

because you have a lot of
complex things happening.

How will these different
ingredients

like the track of the storm,
the wind speed,

how will all of these things
really affect the water height?

We really have a long way to go
with storm surge modeling.

We've come a long way
but we have a long way to go.

NARRATOR:
Surge models depend not only
on the coastal geography

but also on wind speed
and direction at landfall.

In a powerful typhoon, those
variables can change rapidly,

making the kind
of precise prediction

that might have saved Tacloban

extremely difficult,
if not impossible.

NEEDHAM:
Tacloban, which was devastated
from Typhoon Haiyan,

if you shift that track
a little bit,

in the next storm they might not
get a storm surge at all.

NARRATOR:
Even without the surge,
such a sustained bombardment

was bound to bring death
and destruction.

But there were also signs
that life is very resilient.

Across the islands,

many new babies weren't willing
to wait for the storm to pass.

My husband shouted out,
"The baby's here!

It's born!"

We were just thankful
that we survived.

NARRATOR:
In the immediate aftermath
of Haiyan,

many survivors have no water,
food or shelter.

Some places are so remote

that essential help
is slow to arrive.

When some airports open
a day later,

aid begins to arrive for
the victims of Typhoon Haiyan.

Cargo planes ferry
high-energy biscuits,

rice, water and other supplies
from the U.S.

That staff sergeant right there,

tell him we need as
many people as we can

to offload that C130.

We're going to get
some Marines as well.

NARRATOR:
The American military deploys
a strike group

from Hong Kong and Japan--

nine ships, 23 helicopters
and 7,000 personnel

to distribute 300 tons of aid
to storm-ravaged islands.

DAMON LOVELESS:
So this is a helicopter landing.

It's one of the helicopters
with the strike group.

And we're getting ready to load
up more people and supplies.

We are bringing food, water,
supplies, shelter and medicine

to everyone that we can get
supplies to

and right off the bat,
we're trying to get

to the most urgent need--

typically people that are
isolated on smaller islands

that can only be accessed
by boats or by helicopter.

NARRATOR:
In the first few days, military
experience proves invaluable.

It's quite busy, but it's
actually something

that the military
is very good at.

I'm just a liaison
but I can tell you

that the Marian Corps
Logistics Specialist,

the Army and the U.S. Air Force,

they're all magicians
when it comes to that,

and I'm glad that we have them
on our side.

They make stuff happen and keep
supplies at the front.

In this case,
the front is disaster relief.

IRWIN REDLENER:
In the immediate phase
after a storm like this,

we're trying to do two things:
we're trying to rescue people

who are in life-threatening
situations

and we're trying to provide
them care to save their lives.

And then the second phase is
to keep people safe and alive

who survived the initial impact,
because after about 72 hours,

after about three days,
people who survived

but now need things
like clean water,

antibiotics, shelter and didn't
get it are not surviving.

NARRATOR:
The military response
is critical.

Equipped to move quickly

and able to reach
inaccessible places,

they are the first to arrive.

But after a few days,

the job falls
to nongovernmental agencies

and other specialists, who are
already laying the groundwork

for a longer-term effort.

So far this has been
very effective

from what I have seen.

It's been one of the most
effective responses

I've ever seen, actually.

Had some real struggles getting
aid in to start with

with the logistical challenges.

The airport was destroyed, the
command center was destroyed,

no electricity, the roads were
clogged with debris,

with dead bodies, so huge
logistical challenges,

but now that that's up
and running,

now that we've got a way in,

we can just see the aid effort

kind of multiplying
over the coming days.

NARRATOR:
As the slow and difficult
process of rebuilding

gets underway,
questions are being asked

about whether this latest killer
storm is linked

to climate change.

Greenhouse gases
like carbon dioxide

generated
by burning fossil fuels

are building up
in our atmosphere,

insulating our planet,

holding in more
of the sun's heat

and driving the temperature up.

What role do these rising
temperatures play

in the intensity of storms?

WEBER:
Typhoon Haiyan was not caused
by global warming.

Global warming
or a warmer environment

could have exacerbated
Typhoon Haiyan.

Typhoon Haiyan was going to
happen because it had the energy

and it had
the atmospheric conditions ready

for it to develop.

REDLENER:
Some scientists feel

that it may not have
a consequence

in terms of the frequency
of these storms,

but it may have
a big consequence

in terms of the intensity
of these storms.

EMANUEL:
One of the great myths
of climate change

is that it is controversial
among scientists.

It is not.

97% of all scientists

who actually work on climate
agree.

The only sensible approach
is to regard this

as a problem of risk;
there will never be certainty.

If we are very, very lucky,

maybe not much important
will happen;

if we are very, very unlucky,
it will be catastrophic.

We think there is a relationship

between the incidence of intense
storms and climate change,

but we don't actually expect to
be able to see that in real data

for perhaps another few decades.

The way I like to frame that

is in terms of steroid use
in baseball.

I can't tell you specifically

which home run
a Major League baseball hits

was caused by steroid use.

But in the average, we know
that during the steroid era

there were more home runs and
there were longer home runs.

And so that's kind of how
I frame the discussion

about climate change
and hurricanes.

Any specific typhoon,
like a Haiyan, can happen

in a given year.

But are we loading the deck
or loading the dice

towards more intense storms
in the future

as we provide a warmer base
of ocean water

for these storms to tap into?

NARRATOR:
Warmer oceans cause
water volume to expand.

At the same time,
glaciers are melting.

The result: sea level around
the world is rising.

WEBER:
A rising sea level makes
these storms

far more dangerous because it
puts that many more people

at risk with the storm surge.

What's not so commonly known
about sea level rise

is that it is not
globally uniform.

The Philippines is one
of the parts of the world

which have seen
in the last 20 or 30 years

the most rapid rise
in sea level,

and we think
in the last 30 years

it was about eight inches
or so higher.

ROBINSON:
It's not going to take
as powerful a storm surge

to create the damage
we saw from Haiyan

if sea level is one or two feet
higher 50 years from now.

So the vulnerability
of our coastal communities

that are traditionally
or historically

in the path of these storms
is only going to get worse

just from sea level rising,

let alone the fact
that we may have

more of these storms
or more powerful storms.

NARRATOR:
Haiyan's storm surge was
a function of the strength

and direction of its winds,

as well as the shape
of the coastline

and the underwater terrain...

Conditions not unique
to the Philippines.

EMANUEL:
We might be tempted to think in
the developed world,

"Well, you know, if that same
storm had hit America or Britain

the consequences would have been
a lot less."

I don't think so.

If that storm had hit
the southeastern U.S.,

it was so powerful that I think
it would have been

as much a disaster,

and economically a lot more
of a disaster,

just because there's
so much more stuff there.

NARRATOR:
One densely settled area
in the U.S.

that might be
particularly vulnerable

to a lethal storm surge is
on the west coast of Florida--

Tampa and St. Petersburg, home
to almost three million people.

This area has all the factors
that could produce

a really devastating
storm surge.

They have a bay there that
can really funnel water

into that area.

They are
in the subtropics there,

so they can receive strikes

from hurricanes
and tropical cyclones.

NARRATOR:
Many hurricanes that hit Florida
travel east to west

across the peninsula.

But twice in 1848, hurricanes
traveling northeast

made landfall north of Tampa,

pushing a large surge
towards land.

And some storm surge modelers
have said that you could get

a storm surge exceeding 20 feet
in the Tampa Bay area.

NARRATOR:
Because no one alive
has experienced

that type of hurricane,

few in harm's way are
prepared for its effects.

NEEDHAM:
If you drive around
the Tampa area,

if you look at the flood
defenses, you will often see

huge subdivisions
with very expensive homes

right up to the waterfront,

with maybe a two-
or three-foot seawall.

Easily in a major storm surge

those homes would just be
completely washed away.

You need a very specific track
to funnel water into that bay.

It doesn't happen
too frequently,

but it has happened before and
it will probably happen again.

NARRATOR:
And that's just one community
that may be vulnerable.

In an era of rising sea levels,

hundreds of millions of people
around the world may be affected

by coastal flooding.

As the aftermath in the
Philippines makes plain,

the stakes for any vulnerable
coastal community

threatened with a category five
hurricane or super typhoon

are high.

Haiyan has created one of
the worst resettlement crises

in recent memory.

An estimated four million people
have been displaced,

more than twice the number
made homeless

by the deadly tsunami that
struck Indonesia in 2004.

In the hardest hit towns,

the relief effort will need
to continue for years.

Even those who have witnessed
other catastrophes

have difficulty coming to terms
with the extent of the loss.

CAT CARTER:
I came down walking just a few
days after I arrived

and I looked out over the ocean

and I remember seeing a boat
out on the sea and thinking

that, you know, oh, that's great
they're fishing again.

It's a sign of resilience,

look how quickly they've got
past the disaster,

and it took a little while, I
think, for my brain to catch up

with what my eyes were seeing,

and then I realized
that they weren't fishing,

they were pulling dead bodies
from the water.

And all along the beach
they'd lined up dead bodies

and lots of them were children.

And that was kind of the moment
for me that the enormity

of what had happened here kind
of came crashing down around me.

NARRATOR:
In the town, sick and injured
people flooded

to Bethany Hospital.

Nurse Paulo Pardilla worked
tirelessly to save lives,

but he had no idea if his own
family was dead or alive.

I had no communication with them

because the cellular phones,
the link of communication,

was shut down, but I was just
praying that my family was safe.

NARRATOR:
Paulo spent 24 hours helping
in the hospital.

Then he walked to his home

in a village on the outskirts
of the city.

There was no transport.

Everything was in ruins.

He had no idea
what he would find.

It took him a day.

But to his relief, his mother
and family were all alive.

GILMA PARDILLA:
This is the first time
in my life,

this is the strongest storm
I ever experienced.

NARRATOR:
Paulo's brother's family,
next door, also survived.

But their house did not.

PAULO PARDILLA:
It was that fruit tree.

A big branch of that was able

to fall on the house
of my brother.

PATRICK PARDILLA:
My daughter was so scared,

so we ran out and go
to our mother's house.

NARRATOR:
The concrete walls
of Paulo's mother's house

withstood the fierce winds
of Haiyan,

but they were no protection
against the storm surge.

Flood waters rushed
through the house,

and for eight hours the family
huddled together on the steps.

We sit down here,
my granddaughter,

my daughter-in-law here,

my husband standing,
holding the ceiling

because it might fall to us.

We just keep on praying,
"Lord, please save us."

NARRATOR:
Paulo's family was spared.

But their city had become
a disaster zone.

Whole neighborhoods were left
barely recognizable.

You could not see many
of the houses there

because it's covered with
foliage like trees and leaves,

but now you can see even
the mountain at the end.

Now it's all gone.

REDLENER:
In many developing countries,
there is no choice.

If you want to support

your family and yourself,
you have to live near the coast.

You are forced
to remain in place

even in these high hazard zones.

NARRATOR:
Many survivors are haunted

by memories of what they endured
during the storm.

With his home blown away,
Carlito Arias found himself

desperately holding on
to his children

as the sea surge
came rushing in.

(translated):
My child held on to me,

but the next wave took me
far away from them.

That was the most painful part.

I couldn't protect them
any longer.

NARRATOR:
Once the storm had passed,

Carlito searched
for the children and relatives

he had tried to protect.

One by one,
he found their bodies.

He was then left with the task
of burying his dead.

ARIAS:
I told the family the news,

that we didn't have a choice
but to bury them ourselves.

So we wrapped them well
in hand-woven mats.

NARRATOR:
The burial was swift.

No time for the usual embalming
and coffins.

They were laid to rest, all
together, in a sacred place.

I want to cement it well.

To show I haven't forgotten
and still love them.

EMANUEL:
I don't think anybody
could have dealt

with this typhoon

because it was so out of the
normal range of intensities.

Haiyan became as destructive as
it did because of a coincidence

of very favorable circumstances.

Haiyan had everything
going for it.

In some sense the people
of the Philippines

had everything going against
them in this event.

NARRATOR:
Among the millions of people

left without a roof
over their heads

are Georgina Bulasa
and her husband.

BULASA:
That is my husband.

Building a house,
a very simple one.

He is just using
whatever is usable now.

Besides, we do not have
the money to buy materials

and there is no store
that is open,

so me and my husband are hoping

that in due time we will be able
to start anew again.

NARRATOR:
Nurse Paulo Pardilla is back

to helping those affected
by the typhoon.

With Tacloban's hospital
flooded,

relief workers have set up
a temporary medical center.

PARDILLA:
What's new in the last
two days for us

is that there's a feeling
of joy, of hope in our life,

especially for us nurses,

because we can continue
our work.

Today our hospital is not yet
opening or not yet in service

so the tent hospital is a means
for us to continue

rendering care and service
to the people,

especially those affected
by the typhoon.

(giving instructions to patient)

NARRATOR:
The Philippine government
estimates

the cost of reconstruction
at around $8 billion.

In the affected area,

key industries such as
agriculture and fishing

have all but been destroyed.

For the people on the ground, it
would be easy to be overwhelmed,

but the job now is to rebuild.

We don't have no plan to go
elsewhere,

but to stay here and rebuild
whatever we can

because this is our home.

No place like sweet home.

NARRATOR:
The priority for Father Hector
is his parish.

This is a religious community,

and for many the church is
needed more than ever.

FATHER HECTOR:
We always have
that strong spirit

to rebuild in our own little
way, in our own simple way.

We don't have a roof
over our heads.

But the thing is,
they will do their best

to celebrate that mass

and I believe they would be
coming in to be grateful to God

for their lives.

CARMELITA BANTILAN:
What are we going to do?

Even money to buy little things,
we don't have any.

So what are we going to do?

GEORGINA BULASA:
We're hoping

that big hope

that slowly we're going
to make it

back to normal again.

(bell ringing)

FATHER HECTOR:
It's a tradition for Filipinos

that they never give up, in
spite of all these disasters

in spite of all the tragedies.

They won't give up.

We lost a lot of lives,

and that's a fact that we have
to accept and to live with.

It will take some times.

It's part of our culture

that in spite of all the pain,
the suffering

that we have endured,

we are still smiling.

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access.wgbh.org