Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated:
1
00:00:02,737 --> 00:00:07,806
NARRATOR:
Our planet is capable of
unleashing extreme chaos.
2
00:00:07,875 --> 00:00:10,476
Volcanoes,
3
00:00:10,544 --> 00:00:11,910
earthquakes,
4
00:00:11,979 --> 00:00:13,746
hurricanes,
5
00:00:13,814 --> 00:00:17,916
and floods can cause
untold devastation.
6
00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:22,021
We may think we've seen
the worst Mother Nature
7
00:00:22,089 --> 00:00:23,789
can throw at us,
8
00:00:23,858 --> 00:00:27,426
but scientists struggling
to understand these disasters
9
00:00:27,495 --> 00:00:30,262
are discovering evidence
that even more extreme events
10
00:00:30,331 --> 00:00:33,098
have struck in the past.
11
00:00:33,167 --> 00:00:35,467
JEAN CHRISTOPHE KOMOROWSKI:
So this is about 13 times
12
00:00:35,536 --> 00:00:37,836
more powerful
than the Pompeii eruption.
13
00:00:37,905 --> 00:00:42,107
NARRATOR:
They're uncovering clues
that the worst catastrophes
14
00:00:42,176 --> 00:00:45,411
in history could strike again.
15
00:00:47,915 --> 00:00:50,783
More than 200 years ago,
16
00:00:50,851 --> 00:00:53,485
a disaster tore through
the Caribbean.
17
00:00:53,554 --> 00:00:55,154
(thunder)
18
00:00:55,222 --> 00:00:57,322
WAYNE NEELY:
This is by far the deadliest
hurricane to ever impact
19
00:00:57,391 --> 00:00:58,490
the entire Caribbean.
20
00:00:58,559 --> 00:01:01,794
NARRATOR:
The Great Hurricane of 1780
21
00:01:01,862 --> 00:01:04,930
was both huge and powerful.
22
00:01:04,999 --> 00:01:09,368
But can we trace its impact
using today's tools
23
00:01:09,437 --> 00:01:14,239
because it appears storms
are becoming more powerful.
24
00:01:14,308 --> 00:01:17,309
MARSHALL SHEPHERD:
We believe that there should be
more intense storms,
25
00:01:17,378 --> 00:01:19,545
perhaps not as many of them are
happening, but when they do,
26
00:01:19,613 --> 00:01:21,447
they'll be stronger.
27
00:01:21,515 --> 00:01:25,017
NARRATOR:
The clues are here,
buried and hidden
28
00:01:25,086 --> 00:01:29,521
beneath the waves
and beneath the ground.
29
00:01:29,590 --> 00:01:31,423
AMY FRAPPIER:
There's this whole
history in here
30
00:01:31,492 --> 00:01:32,925
about what's happened over time.
31
00:01:35,396 --> 00:01:38,897
NARRATOR:
Now scientists and
historians come together,
32
00:01:38,966 --> 00:01:44,436
to scour our volatile earth,
to find out if, in the future,
33
00:01:44,505 --> 00:01:48,107
there will be more
"Killer Hurricanes."
34
00:01:49,777 --> 00:01:53,178
Right now on
NOVA.
35
00:01:53,247 --> 00:01:56,415
¶ ¶
36
00:01:59,920 --> 00:02:01,186
nder)
37
00:02:02,356 --> 00:02:04,089
NARRATOR:
Hurricanes,
38
00:02:04,157 --> 00:02:08,159
some of the most powerful
natural forces on earth.
39
00:02:08,228 --> 00:02:12,264
Called typhoons or cyclones
in the Pacific,
40
00:02:12,332 --> 00:02:16,268
these storms can build up over
warm waters and can reach
41
00:02:16,336 --> 00:02:20,205
hundreds of miles across.
42
00:02:20,274 --> 00:02:25,910
Storms like Harvey, Irma, Maria,
43
00:02:25,979 --> 00:02:28,913
and Typhoon Haiyan
are synonymous
44
00:02:28,982 --> 00:02:30,982
with death and destruction.
45
00:02:31,051 --> 00:02:32,183
(siren blaring)
46
00:02:32,252 --> 00:02:34,085
KERRY EMANUEL:
Hurricanes kill on average
47
00:02:34,154 --> 00:02:35,787
10,000 people a year.
48
00:02:35,856 --> 00:02:37,522
SHEPHERD:
They can cause death.
49
00:02:37,591 --> 00:02:41,826
They can actually destroy
infrastructures, entire cities.
50
00:02:42,829 --> 00:02:44,429
WOMAN:
It's just complete devastation,
51
00:02:44,498 --> 00:02:46,298
it's unbelievable.
52
00:02:48,435 --> 00:02:53,104
NARRATOR:
In 2017, a series of
catastrophic hurricanes--
53
00:02:53,173 --> 00:02:56,341
Harvey, Irma, and Maria--
54
00:02:56,410 --> 00:03:00,578
impacted millions of people
in the U.S. and the Caribbean.
55
00:03:00,647 --> 00:03:05,250
Entire islands and the city
of Houston were devastated.
56
00:03:05,319 --> 00:03:09,954
Is this the worst that nature
can throw at us?
57
00:03:10,023 --> 00:03:11,856
To find out,
58
00:03:11,925 --> 00:03:16,795
scientists are hunting for clues
in the distant past.
59
00:03:16,863 --> 00:03:18,430
SHEPHERD:
The more we understand
about them,
60
00:03:18,498 --> 00:03:20,398
the better we can predict them.
61
00:03:20,467 --> 00:03:23,368
NARRATOR:
They're unearthing evidence
of the deadliest
62
00:03:23,437 --> 00:03:25,704
hurricane in Atlantic history--
63
00:03:25,772 --> 00:03:29,307
the Great Hurricane of 1780.
64
00:03:29,376 --> 00:03:30,709
It destroyed every house
in Barbados.
65
00:03:33,313 --> 00:03:35,613
And it devastated
this massive fort.
66
00:03:36,650 --> 00:03:37,949
That storm was
truly exceptional.
67
00:03:38,018 --> 00:03:39,351
(drill whirring)
68
00:03:39,419 --> 00:03:42,187
NARRATOR:
And looking even further back
in time,
69
00:03:42,255 --> 00:03:45,690
scientists are discovering that,
a thousand years ago,
70
00:03:45,759 --> 00:03:49,861
major Atlantic hurricanes
may have struck more often.
71
00:03:49,930 --> 00:03:51,463
And then you get this
really big layer here
72
00:03:51,531 --> 00:03:53,832
that dates to
about a thousand years ago.
73
00:03:55,402 --> 00:03:59,337
NARRATOR:
So were monster hurricanes
more frequent or more powerful
74
00:03:59,406 --> 00:04:00,805
in the past?
75
00:04:00,874 --> 00:04:04,442
And what does this bode
for the future?
76
00:04:05,946 --> 00:04:09,848
Two record-breaking hurricanes
struck the Caribbean
77
00:04:09,916 --> 00:04:14,119
in September 2017.
78
00:04:14,187 --> 00:04:17,255
The first, Irma,
leaves a trail of destruction
79
00:04:17,324 --> 00:04:22,594
across the islands of Barbuda,
St. Maarten, and St. John.
80
00:04:22,662 --> 00:04:28,133
Its 185 mile an hour winds
blow for a record 37 hours.
81
00:04:28,201 --> 00:04:30,902
¶ ¶
82
00:04:30,971 --> 00:04:34,973
Then, less than two weeks later,
comes Maria.
83
00:04:35,041 --> 00:04:40,445
Its sustained winds blast the
entire island of Puerto Rico,
84
00:04:40,514 --> 00:04:46,818
destroying the power grid, water
supply, roads, and cell towers.
85
00:04:46,887 --> 00:04:51,656
For weeks, millions are stranded
in the dark without clean water,
86
00:04:51,725 --> 00:04:55,693
food, gas, or phones.
87
00:04:55,762 --> 00:04:58,363
The terrible toll
of these storms
88
00:04:58,432 --> 00:05:00,532
puts them in the record books.
89
00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:05,203
But there is growing evidence
that hurricanes just as powerful
90
00:05:05,272 --> 00:05:07,705
could once have been
more common.
91
00:05:07,774 --> 00:05:10,442
¶ ¶
92
00:05:10,510 --> 00:05:14,212
Wayne Neely, a meteorologist
and historian, has come
93
00:05:14,281 --> 00:05:18,917
to the National Archives
on the island of Barbados,
94
00:05:18,985 --> 00:05:22,086
the most easterly
of all the Caribbean islands.
95
00:05:23,957 --> 00:05:26,591
He's here to investigate
96
00:05:26,660 --> 00:05:29,694
the deadliest Atlantic
hurricanes since records began:
97
00:05:29,763 --> 00:05:32,831
The Great Hurricane of 1780.
98
00:05:34,568 --> 00:05:36,100
According to historical
documents,
99
00:05:36,169 --> 00:05:39,471
this storm was so destructive
it killed
100
00:05:39,539 --> 00:05:44,342
an estimated 22,000 people
across the Caribbean.
101
00:05:44,411 --> 00:05:49,647
And on October 10, 1780,
the first place it strikes
102
00:05:49,716 --> 00:05:54,352
is the island of Barbados,
then under British rule.
103
00:05:54,421 --> 00:05:56,821
In the records from the time,
104
00:05:56,890 --> 00:05:59,858
Wayne finds evidence
of the human cost.
105
00:05:59,926 --> 00:06:03,595
NEELY:
Here, in these death records,
we have 4,500 names
106
00:06:03,663 --> 00:06:07,999
of persons who died in
the Great Hurricane of 1780.
107
00:06:08,068 --> 00:06:13,104
Elizabeth Finlay, Thomas Fisher,
Nehimah Fish, William Folks,
108
00:06:13,173 --> 00:06:15,707
Richard Foster, Elizabeth Forte.
109
00:06:15,775 --> 00:06:18,877
These are a few names of persons
who died in that storm
110
00:06:18,945 --> 00:06:20,011
in Barbados.
111
00:06:24,751 --> 00:06:27,385
NARRATOR:
And in the archives,
Wayne also finds
112
00:06:27,454 --> 00:06:30,755
a harrowing eyewitness account
that describes the fate
113
00:06:30,824 --> 00:06:33,758
that likely befell
many of these people.
114
00:06:33,827 --> 00:06:37,028
It's a letter written
by the commander-in-chief
115
00:06:37,097 --> 00:06:40,098
of the British Forces
in the Leeward Islands.
116
00:06:40,166 --> 00:06:43,234
This is a letter written to the
king by Major General Warren.
117
00:06:43,303 --> 00:06:46,571
"I do not believe that ten
houses are saved
118
00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:48,439
"in the whole island.
119
00:06:48,508 --> 00:06:52,677
"Whole families were buried in
ruins of the inhabitations.
120
00:06:52,746 --> 00:06:56,314
"Many in attempting to escape
were maimed and disabled,
121
00:06:56,383 --> 00:06:58,449
"the ground covered
with mangled bodies
122
00:06:58,518 --> 00:07:01,019
of their friends and relations."
123
00:07:02,656 --> 00:07:06,958
NARRATOR:
Almost all buildings, whether
stone or wood, were torn apart.
124
00:07:07,027 --> 00:07:10,728
NEELY:
Well, it must have been
a really great storm to destroy
125
00:07:10,797 --> 00:07:13,064
all the buildings on the island,
so you can imagine the horror
126
00:07:13,133 --> 00:07:16,334
and the misery that the
residents of Barbados felt
127
00:07:16,403 --> 00:07:20,672
during the peak of the storm;
it was horrifying and horrific.
128
00:07:24,210 --> 00:07:27,145
MIKE CHENOWETH:
You have no home to go to;
you have no food.
129
00:07:27,213 --> 00:07:29,614
The fresh water supply
is now destroyed.
130
00:07:31,251 --> 00:07:36,554
NARRATOR:
In 1780, the people of Barbados
are far from the only victims.
131
00:07:36,623 --> 00:07:40,925
In the following days, the storm
kills thousands more on islands
132
00:07:40,994 --> 00:07:43,061
to the north and west.
133
00:07:43,129 --> 00:07:44,829
The whole region was devastated.
134
00:07:44,898 --> 00:07:50,134
Islands such as Martinique,
St. Lucia, St. Vincent,
135
00:07:50,203 --> 00:07:53,938
and Grenada all reported
death tolls from the storms.
136
00:07:54,007 --> 00:07:56,574
The wind is going to destroy
your plantations.
137
00:07:56,643 --> 00:07:57,542
It's going to destroy
everything.
138
00:07:57,611 --> 00:07:59,811
You'll lose all your supplies.
139
00:08:01,948 --> 00:08:06,184
NARRATOR:
In 1780, it's estimated that
22,000 people
140
00:08:06,252 --> 00:08:08,319
are killed immediately.
141
00:08:08,388 --> 00:08:11,456
Most of the victims are slaves,
brought over from Africa
142
00:08:11,524 --> 00:08:14,158
to work on the sugar
plantations.
143
00:08:15,829 --> 00:08:19,263
Then, thousands more die
in the aftermath
144
00:08:19,332 --> 00:08:22,834
from starvation and disease.
145
00:08:22,902 --> 00:08:24,869
It's always the lowest end
of the economic chain
146
00:08:24,938 --> 00:08:26,270
that feels the effects
of these things first.
147
00:08:26,339 --> 00:08:29,340
The slaves are going
to die off first.
148
00:08:29,409 --> 00:08:30,408
And most of them did.
149
00:08:30,477 --> 00:08:33,344
EMANUEL:
Certainly the 1780 hurricane
150
00:08:33,413 --> 00:08:35,013
was the deadliest hurricane
we know about
151
00:08:35,081 --> 00:08:36,514
in the western hemisphere.
152
00:08:37,751 --> 00:08:42,654
NARRATOR:
The records also reveal,
just as in 2017,
153
00:08:42,722 --> 00:08:45,923
this storm was one of
three devastating hurricanes
154
00:08:45,992 --> 00:08:47,792
that struck in quick succession.
155
00:08:47,861 --> 00:08:50,695
1780 was a terrible year
for hurricanes.
156
00:08:50,764 --> 00:08:53,331
There were three
incredibly destructive ones.
157
00:08:55,635 --> 00:08:59,103
NARRATOR:
Only a week earlier, another
hurricane had struck the region.
158
00:08:59,172 --> 00:09:02,974
And then,
just over a week later,
159
00:09:03,043 --> 00:09:06,411
another struck,
also with catastrophic effect.
160
00:09:08,448 --> 00:09:10,281
But the death toll from
the Great Hurricane
161
00:09:10,350 --> 00:09:12,550
overshadows them all.
162
00:09:12,619 --> 00:09:14,619
(wind roaring)
163
00:09:14,688 --> 00:09:16,254
Even today, storms like
164
00:09:16,322 --> 00:09:20,725
Hurricane Katrina that struck
the Gulf Coast in 2005;
165
00:09:20,794 --> 00:09:24,362
and Hurricane Mitch,
the deadliest Atlantic hurricane
166
00:09:24,431 --> 00:09:28,099
in living memory, which hit
Central America in 1998,
167
00:09:28,168 --> 00:09:32,003
can leave thousands dead
in their wake.
168
00:09:32,072 --> 00:09:35,707
So what makes these
killer storms so unusual?
169
00:09:35,775 --> 00:09:37,942
And will they become
more frequent?
170
00:09:40,413 --> 00:09:44,148
Modern hurricanes, like Harvey,
Irma, and Maria,
171
00:09:44,217 --> 00:09:47,285
are tracked by aircraft
and weather satellites.
172
00:09:49,322 --> 00:09:53,357
What we've learned about them
gives scientists an idea
173
00:09:53,426 --> 00:09:58,663
of how the 1780 storm
likely formed and developed.
174
00:10:00,533 --> 00:10:03,735
On August 27, 2017,
175
00:10:03,803 --> 00:10:07,305
nine days before it makes
landfall in the Caribbean,
176
00:10:07,373 --> 00:10:11,509
Irma begins as a storm off
the west coast of Africa.
177
00:10:13,079 --> 00:10:15,680
As it travels west across
the Atlantic Ocean,
178
00:10:15,749 --> 00:10:19,784
it quickly gathers strength.
179
00:10:19,853 --> 00:10:22,920
Heat rising from
the warm ocean waters
180
00:10:22,989 --> 00:10:27,358
feeds energy
into the storm system.
181
00:10:27,427 --> 00:10:29,026
Hurricanes are like
heat engines.
182
00:10:29,095 --> 00:10:31,996
They actually convert the energy
from the ocean
183
00:10:32,065 --> 00:10:35,767
into motion in the hurricane.
184
00:10:35,835 --> 00:10:40,738
NARRATOR:
Warm, moist air cools as it
rises, and then condenses.
185
00:10:40,807 --> 00:10:43,741
That releases that energy that
was carried away from the ocean
186
00:10:43,810 --> 00:10:45,309
and that powers the storm.
187
00:10:45,378 --> 00:10:48,412
EMANUEL:
And one of the reasons
hurricanes are so intense is
188
00:10:48,481 --> 00:10:51,949
the ocean is very warm and the
air at the top of the hurricane
189
00:10:52,018 --> 00:10:53,551
is very cold.
190
00:10:53,620 --> 00:10:58,322
NARRATOR:
These winds can then spin
into a powerful cyclone,
191
00:10:58,391 --> 00:11:01,392
partly a product
of Earth's rotation,
192
00:11:01,461 --> 00:11:04,862
with rain bands stretching
hundreds of miles across.
193
00:11:07,734 --> 00:11:11,969
August 30-- as wind speeds
reach 50 miles an hour,
194
00:11:12,038 --> 00:11:15,740
Irma becomes a named hurricane.
195
00:11:15,809 --> 00:11:21,112
Over the next six days,
it intensifies rapidly.
196
00:11:21,181 --> 00:11:25,349
By the time it slams into
tiny exposed Barbuda
197
00:11:25,418 --> 00:11:28,586
on September 6,
with sustained wind speeds
198
00:11:28,655 --> 00:11:35,593
of a 185 miles an hour,
Irma is a Category 5 hurricane.
199
00:11:35,662 --> 00:11:41,732
It's likely the Great Hurricane
of 1780 formed in a similar way
200
00:11:41,801 --> 00:11:44,635
to this recent superstorm.
201
00:11:44,704 --> 00:11:48,472
But how strong did it get?
202
00:11:48,541 --> 00:11:51,642
Historians are able to piece
together some details
203
00:11:51,711 --> 00:11:52,810
of the storm's strength,
204
00:11:52,879 --> 00:11:56,214
thanks in large part
to ships' records
205
00:11:56,282 --> 00:11:59,984
kept by competing naval powers.
206
00:12:02,188 --> 00:12:05,223
In 1780, the Caribbean
is a battleground
207
00:12:05,291 --> 00:12:08,559
during the
American Revolutionary War.
208
00:12:08,628 --> 00:12:09,894
CHENOWETH:
Four years earlier,
209
00:12:09,963 --> 00:12:12,496
the Americans had announced
their independence,
210
00:12:12,565 --> 00:12:16,033
and the British decided,
"No, you don't.
211
00:12:16,102 --> 00:12:18,069
"We're going to send a bunch
of our troops
212
00:12:18,137 --> 00:12:20,037
over there to stop this."
213
00:12:20,106 --> 00:12:23,107
(soldiers shouting)
214
00:12:23,176 --> 00:12:28,613
NARRATOR:
In October, the area is full of
British and European warships.
215
00:12:30,950 --> 00:12:32,583
There was a lot of European
ships in the area.
216
00:12:32,652 --> 00:12:35,753
You had the French; you had
the Dutch and the Spanish
217
00:12:35,822 --> 00:12:38,155
fighting against
British warships
218
00:12:38,224 --> 00:12:41,225
for control of the Caribbean
and the region.
219
00:12:41,294 --> 00:12:43,661
NARRATOR:
Like the communities
on the islands,
220
00:12:43,730 --> 00:12:47,531
these ships were vulnerable
to violent hurricanes,
221
00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:51,669
as the British Naval Records
in Barbados reveal.
222
00:12:51,738 --> 00:12:53,638
Looking in the naval records,
you can see the loss
223
00:12:53,706 --> 00:12:55,339
of so many ships--
224
00:12:55,408 --> 00:13:00,645
HMS Laurel, HMS Andromeda,
and HMS Deal Castle,
225
00:13:00,713 --> 00:13:04,482
all lost
in the Great Hurricane of 1780.
226
00:13:04,550 --> 00:13:09,353
NARRATOR:
The fate of HMS Deal Castle is
depicted in paintings
227
00:13:09,422 --> 00:13:12,490
from the period.
228
00:13:14,394 --> 00:13:18,229
And historical documents reveal
that thousands of sailors
229
00:13:18,298 --> 00:13:21,666
from all sides perished at sea.
230
00:13:25,538 --> 00:13:31,042
So given its devastating scale,
was the Great Hurricane of 1780
231
00:13:31,110 --> 00:13:34,946
more powerful than
more recent killer storms?
232
00:13:35,014 --> 00:13:37,982
EMANUEL:
Well, we just don't know whether
233
00:13:38,051 --> 00:13:40,017
it was a uniquely powerful
hurricane,
234
00:13:40,086 --> 00:13:42,787
or whether it was just an
ordinarily powerful hurricane
235
00:13:42,855 --> 00:13:45,122
that took a very
destructive path.
236
00:13:47,560 --> 00:13:50,061
NARRATOR:
Given the lack
of scientific data,
237
00:13:50,129 --> 00:13:56,167
how can experts today track
this megastorm from the past?
238
00:13:58,972 --> 00:14:02,974
Climate historian Mike Chenoweth
has taken up the challenge.
239
00:14:03,042 --> 00:14:08,779
He's scouring old ships' logs
hunting for hidden clues.
240
00:14:10,149 --> 00:14:14,952
And he's uncovered an entry
from October 9,
241
00:14:15,021 --> 00:14:20,024
the day before the hurricane
strikes Barbados.
242
00:14:20,093 --> 00:14:21,425
One thing I found in doing
the research was
243
00:14:21,494 --> 00:14:23,728
the first detection
of the hurricane
244
00:14:23,796 --> 00:14:26,230
by the Spanish frigate Diana.
245
00:14:26,299 --> 00:14:29,033
NARRATOR:
This is the earliest account
we have of a ship
246
00:14:29,102 --> 00:14:31,135
encountering
the Great Hurricane.
247
00:14:31,204 --> 00:14:35,072
And so they were about 300 miles
east of the island of Trinidad,
248
00:14:35,141 --> 00:14:37,508
off to the southeast
of Barbados,
249
00:14:37,577 --> 00:14:39,710
at 10 degrees of latitude.
250
00:14:43,016 --> 00:14:45,816
NARRATOR:
"There bore down upon us
a violent hurricane
251
00:14:45,885 --> 00:14:50,154
"which lasted 48 hours
without intermission.
252
00:14:50,223 --> 00:14:54,191
"The wind ran the entire compass
with violent gusts
253
00:14:54,260 --> 00:14:57,528
and the frigate moved heavily
in the swells."
254
00:14:59,632 --> 00:15:01,532
CHENOWETH:
So in several days ahead
255
00:15:01,601 --> 00:15:02,867
of reaching Barbados,
256
00:15:02,935 --> 00:15:04,635
it had already
become a hurricane.
257
00:15:06,506 --> 00:15:08,906
NARRATOR:
But to quantify the strength
of the hurricane,
258
00:15:08,975 --> 00:15:12,743
Mike faces a major problem.
259
00:15:12,812 --> 00:15:15,446
In 1780, there were no
instruments for measuring
260
00:15:15,515 --> 00:15:18,716
the actual speed of the wind.
261
00:15:18,785 --> 00:15:21,252
The only clues are time of day,
262
00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:25,656
wind direction, and estimates
of wind intensity.
263
00:15:25,725 --> 00:15:31,362
Mike continues with logs
dated to October 10.
264
00:15:31,431 --> 00:15:32,930
CHENOWETH:
So, this is at 6:00
in the morning--
265
00:15:32,999 --> 00:15:34,999
the hurricane has just finished
devastating
266
00:15:35,068 --> 00:15:36,267
the island of Barbados.
267
00:15:36,335 --> 00:15:39,336
Everything is
a complete wreck now.
268
00:15:39,405 --> 00:15:42,273
This ship plot here is for
HMS Albemarle
269
00:15:42,341 --> 00:15:45,276
off the west coast
of the island of Barbados.
270
00:15:45,344 --> 00:15:48,379
They have a hurricane blowing
from the south on this map.
271
00:15:48,448 --> 00:15:51,615
That's the approximate center
of the hurricane at this point
272
00:15:51,684 --> 00:15:55,419
in time, and then we have
other ships off the coast
273
00:15:55,488 --> 00:15:58,189
of St. Lucia reporting
northeast winds,
274
00:15:58,257 --> 00:16:00,057
and another ship
approaching Martinique
275
00:16:00,126 --> 00:16:01,792
with an east-northeast wind.
276
00:16:03,296 --> 00:16:06,330
NARRATOR:
Mike draws together records
from all the ships
277
00:16:06,399 --> 00:16:10,367
and plots the position of the
storm in six-hour intervals.
278
00:16:10,436 --> 00:16:14,705
In this way, he tracks the storm
as it moves
279
00:16:14,774 --> 00:16:16,774
across the Caribbean.
280
00:16:16,843 --> 00:16:19,577
So from the 11th to the 15th,
this storm is out
281
00:16:19,645 --> 00:16:21,946
in the eastern Caribbean
stirring up the water
282
00:16:22,014 --> 00:16:23,981
with this huge wind field
283
00:16:24,050 --> 00:16:27,685
that just continues to batter
the islands all in the region.
284
00:16:27,753 --> 00:16:33,324
NARRATOR:
For nine days, the Great
Hurricane ravages the Caribbean
285
00:16:33,392 --> 00:16:35,626
before passing
into the North Atlantic.
286
00:16:35,695 --> 00:16:40,731
And Mike spots two features that
made this storm so destructive.
287
00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:44,268
First, with hurricane force
winds that he estimates
288
00:16:44,337 --> 00:16:46,437
extended up to 75 miles out
289
00:16:46,506 --> 00:16:49,974
from the hurricane's eye,
the storm was vast.
290
00:16:50,042 --> 00:16:53,344
CHENOWETH:
75 miles is about triple
what we usually see
291
00:16:53,412 --> 00:16:56,247
for strong hurricanes
in that area,
292
00:16:56,315 --> 00:17:01,785
the gale force winds extending
out 220 miles to the north.
293
00:17:01,854 --> 00:17:04,588
NARRATOR:
That means its strongest winds
may have blasted
294
00:17:04,657 --> 00:17:09,960
an even greater area
than Irma's.
295
00:17:10,029 --> 00:17:13,898
The storm was moving forwards
unusually slowly,
296
00:17:13,966 --> 00:17:17,234
ravaging Barbados
for eight hours.
297
00:17:18,704 --> 00:17:21,438
CHENOWETH:
Because the storm is moving
slower than average,
298
00:17:21,507 --> 00:17:23,207
it just had
more opportunity to keep
299
00:17:23,276 --> 00:17:24,408
knocking more buildings down.
300
00:17:24,477 --> 00:17:27,011
You've got thousands
of people dead.
301
00:17:30,249 --> 00:17:31,849
NARRATOR:
From the ships' logs,
302
00:17:31,918 --> 00:17:33,717
Mike is building up
a more accurate picture
303
00:17:33,786 --> 00:17:37,454
of the path and size
of the 1780 megastorm.
304
00:17:39,091 --> 00:17:43,227
But the logs can't answer
the most pressing question:
305
00:17:43,296 --> 00:17:45,062
how powerful was this storm
306
00:17:45,131 --> 00:17:47,965
by comparison
with hurricanes today?
307
00:17:50,603 --> 00:17:52,036
To answer this question,
308
00:17:52,104 --> 00:17:55,139
scientists are trying
to understand how
309
00:17:55,208 --> 00:18:00,177
different conditions contribute
to creating monster hurricanes.
310
00:18:02,648 --> 00:18:03,814
SHEPHERD:
You have a complex
311
00:18:03,883 --> 00:18:06,450
web of conditions that have
to come together
312
00:18:06,519 --> 00:18:09,386
perfectly to produce this
intensifying storm,
313
00:18:09,455 --> 00:18:10,955
and that's really a challenge.
314
00:18:12,458 --> 00:18:16,260
NARRATOR:
Scientists agree there
are three key ingredients
315
00:18:16,329 --> 00:18:18,462
for the perfect storm.
316
00:18:18,531 --> 00:18:22,933
First, for a hurricane to grow
in strength and power,
317
00:18:23,002 --> 00:18:27,037
there needs to be a layer of
warm ocean water reaching down
318
00:18:27,106 --> 00:18:29,173
to at least 200 feet.
319
00:18:29,242 --> 00:18:31,909
The hurricanes churn up
cold water
320
00:18:31,978 --> 00:18:34,378
from beneath the warm water
on the surface,
321
00:18:34,447 --> 00:18:36,247
so they cool the surface.
322
00:18:36,315 --> 00:18:38,482
It's like throwing cold water
on a fire.
323
00:18:38,551 --> 00:18:42,119
NARRATOR:
Second, crosswinds near the top
of the hurricane,
324
00:18:42,188 --> 00:18:45,322
called wind shear,
can't be too strong
325
00:18:45,391 --> 00:18:47,791
or they disrupt
the formation of the storm.
326
00:18:47,860 --> 00:18:52,296
EMANUEL:
That tends to blow dry air into
the core of a hurricane.
327
00:18:52,365 --> 00:18:55,332
That also is like throwing
cold water on the fire.
328
00:18:55,401 --> 00:18:58,402
NARRATOR:
And, third,
hurricanes need moisture
329
00:18:58,471 --> 00:19:00,237
throughout the atmosphere.
330
00:19:00,306 --> 00:19:02,973
If all these conditions
come together,
331
00:19:03,042 --> 00:19:05,843
wind speeds within the eyewall
of the hurricane
332
00:19:05,911 --> 00:19:07,911
can rapidly rise.
333
00:19:07,980 --> 00:19:10,614
JEFF DONNELLY:
They become the most powerful
storms on the planet.
334
00:19:12,018 --> 00:19:15,352
NARRATOR:
On a scale of one to five,
a major hurricane is
335
00:19:15,421 --> 00:19:18,756
a Category 3 storm or above,
with wind speeds
336
00:19:18,824 --> 00:19:22,893
of 111 miles an hour
or greater.
337
00:19:22,962 --> 00:19:24,962
You could probably go outside
and walk around
338
00:19:25,031 --> 00:19:27,498
in 75 mile an hour winds...
I wouldn't recommend it.
339
00:19:27,566 --> 00:19:29,667
There's going to be things
flying through the air.
340
00:19:29,735 --> 00:19:31,435
If it was
a Cat 3 or 4 hurricane,
341
00:19:31,504 --> 00:19:33,604
you're not even going
to be able to walk or stand.
342
00:19:33,673 --> 00:19:36,740
CHENOWETH:
Generally, if over half
the buildings
343
00:19:36,809 --> 00:19:39,143
are knocked down, that's usually
a good sign you've got at least
344
00:19:39,211 --> 00:19:40,678
a Category 3 storm.
345
00:19:43,416 --> 00:19:46,617
NARRATOR:
The deadliest storm ever to hit
the United States
346
00:19:46,686 --> 00:19:50,387
was a Category 4 in Galveston,
Texas, in 1900
347
00:19:50,456 --> 00:19:54,491
with estimates up to
12,000 dead.
348
00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:58,896
Category 5 storms are the most
powerful hurricanes of all,
349
00:19:58,964 --> 00:20:03,634
with wind speeds over
156 miles an hour.
350
00:20:03,703 --> 00:20:07,871
There are very few structures--
boats, buildings, cars--
351
00:20:07,940 --> 00:20:11,275
that can withstand the force
of a Category 5 hurricane.
352
00:20:13,312 --> 00:20:17,181
NARRATOR:
As wind speeds increase,
their destructive power grows
353
00:20:17,249 --> 00:20:19,583
even faster.
354
00:20:20,753 --> 00:20:22,186
DONNELLY:
It's not a sort of linear
change.
355
00:20:22,254 --> 00:20:23,520
It's actually exponential,
356
00:20:23,589 --> 00:20:25,255
so the wind is able to do
a lot more work.
357
00:20:25,324 --> 00:20:28,525
EMANUEL:
If you double the wind speed,
358
00:20:28,594 --> 00:20:31,895
you increase the destruction
by at least a factor of eight.
359
00:20:31,964 --> 00:20:35,999
NARRATOR:
So a Category 5 hurricane
is at least
360
00:20:36,068 --> 00:20:40,204
eight times more destructive
than a Category 1.
361
00:20:42,241 --> 00:20:45,776
And recent history reveals
the extreme destructiveness
362
00:20:45,845 --> 00:20:48,712
of these Category 5 storms.
363
00:20:48,781 --> 00:20:54,084
In 2017, Hurricane Maria wrecked
power and water systems
364
00:20:54,153 --> 00:20:56,220
across most of Puerto Rico.
365
00:20:56,288 --> 00:21:02,059
Estimates put the damage
at over $90 billion.
366
00:21:02,128 --> 00:21:06,630
In 1969,
Camille blasted Mississippi,
367
00:21:06,699 --> 00:21:09,533
flattening hundreds
of miles of coastline.
368
00:21:09,602 --> 00:21:13,537
And in 1935 one of the most
intense hurricanes
369
00:21:13,606 --> 00:21:17,641
ever to hit the United States,
the Great Labor Day Hurricane,
370
00:21:17,710 --> 00:21:19,109
ripped through the Florida Keys,
371
00:21:19,178 --> 00:21:22,913
killing over 400 people.
372
00:21:25,284 --> 00:21:28,585
But according to climatologist
Mike Chenoweth,
373
00:21:28,654 --> 00:21:33,590
that the Great Hurricane of 1780
devastated a wider area
374
00:21:33,659 --> 00:21:35,659
and left thousands
more people dead
375
00:21:35,728 --> 00:21:40,831
than any of these modern
Category 5 storms.
376
00:21:40,900 --> 00:21:44,902
And he's found detailed
eyewitness accounts
377
00:21:44,970 --> 00:21:47,938
that reveal another reason why
this unusually large
378
00:21:48,007 --> 00:21:50,808
and slow-moving storm
was so destructive.
379
00:21:53,779 --> 00:21:57,181
Its power didn't come
from the wind alone.
380
00:21:58,918 --> 00:22:04,455
Another devastating force in
a tropical storm is the water,
381
00:22:04,523 --> 00:22:07,157
an intense surge from the sea...
382
00:22:07,226 --> 00:22:08,559
(water roaring)
383
00:22:08,627 --> 00:22:11,161
...known as storm surge.
384
00:22:11,230 --> 00:22:14,498
This is what killed most people
when Typhoon Haiyan
385
00:22:14,567 --> 00:22:19,069
slammed into
the Philippines in 2013.
386
00:22:21,173 --> 00:22:23,173
In the Philippines,
more than 60 percent
387
00:22:23,242 --> 00:22:27,811
of the population lives
within a mile of the water.
388
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:31,482
One of the most powerful storms
ever to strike land,
389
00:22:31,550 --> 00:22:35,919
Haiyan's wind speeds reached
a 195 miles per hour
390
00:22:35,988 --> 00:22:38,555
as it moved slowly
across the islands.
391
00:22:38,624 --> 00:22:41,525
You have the wind driving
this water towards the coast.
392
00:22:41,594 --> 00:22:42,960
(wind howling)
393
00:22:43,028 --> 00:22:44,761
As the storm is approaching
landfall,
394
00:22:44,830 --> 00:22:48,365
it's going from deeper water
to more shallow water.
395
00:22:48,434 --> 00:22:52,936
Many people lost their lives in
that storm because of the surge.
396
00:22:53,005 --> 00:22:56,840
NARRATOR:
Along any coastline, tsunami-
like waves pushed onshore
397
00:22:56,909 --> 00:23:00,978
by hurricane winds can threaten
lives and property.
398
00:23:01,046 --> 00:23:04,314
EMANUEL:
What you see is
a wall of water
399
00:23:04,383 --> 00:23:06,750
that just wipes out
the neighboring houses and trees
400
00:23:06,819 --> 00:23:08,485
and everything before it.
401
00:23:10,289 --> 00:23:15,058
SHEPHERD:
And in some cases, this storm
surge can be ten to 20 feet high
402
00:23:15,127 --> 00:23:17,528
and anything
within several feet to
403
00:23:17,596 --> 00:23:19,663
up to a mile or so
of the coastline
404
00:23:19,732 --> 00:23:21,765
can essentially be wiped out.
405
00:23:23,235 --> 00:23:25,135
EMANUEL:
Anybody that's told to evacuate
406
00:23:25,204 --> 00:23:27,137
because of the danger
of a storm surge,
407
00:23:27,206 --> 00:23:30,274
they should not think twice
about it; just go.
408
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:38,415
NARRATOR:
Every year, millions of people
in the U.S., Central America,
409
00:23:38,484 --> 00:23:42,986
and the Caribbean face the
threat of hurricane storm surge.
410
00:23:43,055 --> 00:23:46,657
And it's storm surge that likely
caused much of the destruction
411
00:23:46,725 --> 00:23:50,527
in Barbados in 1780.
412
00:23:55,234 --> 00:23:56,400
CHENOWETH:
Suddenly,
413
00:23:56,468 --> 00:23:58,502
these massive storm surges came
414
00:23:58,571 --> 00:24:02,873
which carry this
incredible force with them
415
00:24:02,942 --> 00:24:04,308
and devastated the city.
416
00:24:06,412 --> 00:24:09,079
¶ ¶
417
00:24:15,487 --> 00:24:18,689
NARRATOR:
Along the shore on Barbados,
Wayne Neely
418
00:24:18,757 --> 00:24:23,026
is hunting for physical evidence
of the storm surge in 1780.
419
00:24:24,797 --> 00:24:28,565
¶ ¶
420
00:24:28,634 --> 00:24:30,834
This is Fort Charles,
421
00:24:30,903 --> 00:24:34,037
just outside the capital,
Bridge Town.
422
00:24:34,106 --> 00:24:39,376
It was entirely rebuilt
after the 1780 hurricane
423
00:24:39,445 --> 00:24:41,678
completely destroyed
the original.
424
00:24:44,917 --> 00:24:46,850
In 1780, before the hurricane,
425
00:24:46,919 --> 00:24:49,052
the fort itself was
a massive structure.
426
00:24:49,121 --> 00:24:53,724
The walls were much higher and
were three to four feet thick.
427
00:24:53,792 --> 00:24:55,092
The size was immense.
428
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,995
For the walls to be destroyed
from that hurricane,
429
00:24:58,063 --> 00:25:01,131
it had to be
a catastrophic storm.
430
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:05,469
NARRATOR:
The records describe
an unusually high storm surge,
431
00:25:05,537 --> 00:25:08,639
over 25 feet.
432
00:25:08,707 --> 00:25:13,176
Eyewitness accounts tell us the
hurricane swept heavy cannons
433
00:25:13,245 --> 00:25:15,412
140 yards inland.
434
00:25:15,481 --> 00:25:18,882
NEELY:
Nothing stood in place;
it devastated this fort.
435
00:25:18,951 --> 00:25:20,851
It destroyed every house
in Barbados,
436
00:25:20,919 --> 00:25:23,954
and it devastated the Caribbean.
437
00:25:24,023 --> 00:25:25,889
CHENOWETH:
We had entire fortresses
438
00:25:25,958 --> 00:25:27,691
and batteries of war,
439
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:30,460
you know, just totally
swept away.
440
00:25:32,598 --> 00:25:36,400
NARRATOR:
The scale of destruction
reveals the extreme impact
441
00:25:36,468 --> 00:25:39,269
of the 1780 hurricane.
442
00:25:41,006 --> 00:25:44,141
And now, drawing together
all the clues,
443
00:25:44,209 --> 00:25:49,413
it's possible to recreate
what happened.
444
00:25:49,481 --> 00:25:53,450
On the night of October 9, 1780,
445
00:25:53,519 --> 00:25:57,354
the Great Hurricane approaches
Barbados from the southeast.
446
00:25:57,423 --> 00:26:01,692
The storm is
over 300 miles across.
447
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:06,263
On October 10, winds and rains
lashed the island.
448
00:26:06,331 --> 00:26:09,966
Finally, as the eyewall
approaches land,
449
00:26:10,035 --> 00:26:14,638
the huge winds push up a storm
surge 25 feet high.
450
00:26:14,707 --> 00:26:18,442
It slams into the coast...
451
00:26:19,378 --> 00:26:21,645
and inundates the land.
452
00:26:24,616 --> 00:26:29,052
Ravaging the island
for over eight hours,
453
00:26:29,121 --> 00:26:32,556
it leaves more than 4,000
dead...
454
00:26:34,059 --> 00:26:37,227
And goes on to claim a total
of 22,000 lives
455
00:26:37,296 --> 00:26:40,163
across the Caribbean.
456
00:26:40,232 --> 00:26:44,367
The Great Hurricane of 1780
shows how devastating
457
00:26:44,436 --> 00:26:48,872
a hurricane can be in an exposed
low-lying landscape.
458
00:26:48,941 --> 00:26:51,775
Mike Chenoweth believes
its destructiveness
459
00:26:51,844 --> 00:26:53,944
was unparalleled.
460
00:26:54,012 --> 00:26:56,046
CHENOWETH:
We haven't had a storm like
that since,
461
00:26:56,115 --> 00:26:57,514
so we're talking about something
that's happened only once
462
00:26:57,583 --> 00:26:59,049
in 400 years.
463
00:26:59,118 --> 00:27:04,521
NARRATOR:
But what are the chances
of it happening again?
464
00:27:04,590 --> 00:27:08,692
CHENOWETH:
We don't know how far back
465
00:27:08,761 --> 00:27:10,827
something similar
might've happened,
466
00:27:10,896 --> 00:27:15,499
and we certainly don't know what
that possibility in future is.
467
00:27:17,202 --> 00:27:21,738
NARRATOR:
Major hurricanes of Category 3
and above are not common events.
468
00:27:21,807 --> 00:27:24,808
On average, one makes landfall
in the United States
469
00:27:24,877 --> 00:27:28,879
every two years,
and Category 4 and 5 hurricanes
470
00:27:28,947 --> 00:27:31,181
are even less frequent.
471
00:27:31,250 --> 00:27:34,484
EMANUEL:
Category 5 hurricanes
are very rare.
472
00:27:34,553 --> 00:27:37,888
There are far, far more
Category 1s than Category 5s.
473
00:27:37,956 --> 00:27:42,359
NARRATOR:
But now, with the buildup
of greenhouse gases
474
00:27:42,427 --> 00:27:45,095
in our atmosphere from
burning fossil fuels,
475
00:27:45,164 --> 00:27:47,697
our climate is changing.
476
00:27:49,835 --> 00:27:53,937
So many scientists like
Kerry Emanuel are predicting
477
00:27:54,006 --> 00:27:56,306
that intense hurricanes
will become more frequent.
478
00:27:59,011 --> 00:28:01,278
But it's a challenging problem.
479
00:28:01,346 --> 00:28:05,081
Today, scientists rely on
complex weather data
480
00:28:05,150 --> 00:28:09,686
from satellites and aircraft
to create computer simulations
481
00:28:09,755 --> 00:28:14,024
that can help them
make predictions.
482
00:28:14,092 --> 00:28:18,662
But this kind of precise data
only goes back a few decades.
483
00:28:20,132 --> 00:28:25,602
We have reasonably accurate data
going back only to about 1970.
484
00:28:25,671 --> 00:28:29,172
And if you go back in time,
we don't have satellites.
485
00:28:29,241 --> 00:28:31,575
And then if you go back before
the 1940s,
486
00:28:31,643 --> 00:28:32,776
we don't have aircraft.
487
00:28:35,214 --> 00:28:38,448
NARRATOR:
There just isn't enough modern
data to discern patterns
488
00:28:38,517 --> 00:28:40,116
in hurricane behavior.
489
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:45,455
Better data about hurricanes
in the past would be valuable.
490
00:28:45,524 --> 00:28:49,793
SHEPHERD:
If we have understanding of
the activity, the intensity,
491
00:28:49,862 --> 00:28:51,228
the frequency of storms
492
00:28:51,296 --> 00:28:53,430
a thousand, 2,000 years ago,
493
00:28:53,498 --> 00:28:55,332
then that gives us better
confidence
494
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:58,268
in our ability to assess
what hurricanes are doing now
495
00:28:58,337 --> 00:28:59,970
and in the future.
496
00:29:00,038 --> 00:29:03,840
NARRATOR:
But extracting clues about
what hurricanes were doing
497
00:29:03,909 --> 00:29:05,008
thousands of years ago--
498
00:29:05,077 --> 00:29:08,912
well before detailed
historic records--
499
00:29:08,981 --> 00:29:12,849
requires some
very clever detective work,
500
00:29:12,918 --> 00:29:16,019
and some of it needs
to be done at sea.
501
00:29:18,824 --> 00:29:22,325
Oceanographer Jeff Donnelly
is looking for evidence
502
00:29:22,394 --> 00:29:24,828
of ancient hurricanes
on the sea floor.
503
00:29:26,298 --> 00:29:30,734
His search has brought him over
1,200 miles west of Barbados,
504
00:29:30,802 --> 00:29:32,369
to Jamaica.
505
00:29:32,437 --> 00:29:38,141
This is Discovery Bay,
on the northern coast.
506
00:29:38,210 --> 00:29:42,679
Jeff and his team want to expand
our understanding of hurricanes
507
00:29:42,748 --> 00:29:45,482
by exploring the deep past.
508
00:29:45,550 --> 00:29:47,984
DONNELLY:
We're looking into
the sediments to sort of
509
00:29:48,053 --> 00:29:49,452
find these long-term records
510
00:29:49,521 --> 00:29:53,189
to extend our knowledge
back thousands of years.
511
00:29:57,796 --> 00:30:00,797
NARRATOR:
Jeff focuses on
one part of the bay,
512
00:30:00,866 --> 00:30:06,202
next to a reef too shallow for
the research vessel Atlantis.
513
00:30:07,906 --> 00:30:12,642
The only way to get there is
by building a raft...
514
00:30:13,812 --> 00:30:17,147
and towing it out to position.
515
00:30:21,219 --> 00:30:26,256
Their target: a blue hole...
516
00:30:28,961 --> 00:30:32,662
A natural sinkhole created
in the limestone rock.
517
00:30:35,667 --> 00:30:38,168
Jeff is interested
in the sediments trapped
518
00:30:38,236 --> 00:30:40,103
at the bottom of this hole.
519
00:30:41,740 --> 00:30:45,542
DONNELLY:
The blue hole is really
a good recorder of hurricanes,
520
00:30:45,610 --> 00:30:47,177
so it's sort of
a nice time capsule.
521
00:30:47,245 --> 00:30:49,512
The sediment can go in,
but it never can come back out.
522
00:30:51,950 --> 00:30:55,385
NARRATOR:
On calm days,
fine grain silt and sand
523
00:30:55,454 --> 00:30:59,089
drift into the hole
and accumulate over time.
524
00:30:59,157 --> 00:31:01,858
But the violent force
of a major hurricane
525
00:31:01,927 --> 00:31:06,763
propels a different kind
of debris into the hole.
526
00:31:09,034 --> 00:31:11,501
DONNELLY:
When a hurricane will hit,
you'll get really strong winds,
527
00:31:11,570 --> 00:31:12,869
big waves, storm surge.
528
00:31:12,938 --> 00:31:15,438
That all sort of comes up
over the reef here,
529
00:31:15,507 --> 00:31:17,741
and there are really strong
currents associated with that
530
00:31:17,809 --> 00:31:21,277
that will tear up pieces
of coral that transport sand
531
00:31:21,346 --> 00:31:22,612
into the blue hole.
532
00:31:27,519 --> 00:31:28,985
NARRATOR:
The more intense the hurricane,
533
00:31:29,054 --> 00:31:34,057
the larger the pieces of coral
and sand the waves transport.
534
00:31:34,126 --> 00:31:37,527
And over thousands of years,
this sediment
535
00:31:37,596 --> 00:31:42,432
builds up as layers
inside the blue hole.
536
00:31:42,501 --> 00:31:46,102
The deeper the layers are,
the further back in time
537
00:31:46,171 --> 00:31:47,637
they were laid down.
538
00:31:49,741 --> 00:31:53,476
The team lowers a hollow tube,
539
00:31:53,545 --> 00:31:55,745
vibrates it into
the sediments,
540
00:31:55,814 --> 00:31:58,882
and retrieves the sample
trapped inside.
541
00:32:03,989 --> 00:32:08,491
Back on board Atlantis,
Donnelly cuts into the core.
542
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:09,592
(whirring)
543
00:32:11,096 --> 00:32:12,495
So, we basically can
start at the top,
544
00:32:12,564 --> 00:32:14,664
you know, this might be
what's depositing today,
545
00:32:14,733 --> 00:32:18,234
and then you go back further
in time as you go down the core.
546
00:32:18,303 --> 00:32:21,004
NARRATOR:
It's mostly fine, silty sand,
547
00:32:21,073 --> 00:32:23,873
but Jeff spots one sediment
layer that's different.
548
00:32:24,776 --> 00:32:26,342
When you get
down to the bottom,
549
00:32:26,411 --> 00:32:27,811
this interval here...
550
00:32:27,879 --> 00:32:30,814
and there's really big bits of
shell and coral fragments
551
00:32:30,882 --> 00:32:32,782
in there.
552
00:32:32,851 --> 00:32:36,619
NARRATOR:
Washing and sieving the sample
reveals larger pieces of coral
553
00:32:36,688 --> 00:32:39,489
mixed up in the sand.
554
00:32:39,558 --> 00:32:41,357
DONNELLY:
It's quite coarse,
compared to the rest
555
00:32:41,426 --> 00:32:44,794
of the core, but this was all
that material that was ripped up
556
00:32:44,863 --> 00:32:46,362
and washed into this basin.
557
00:32:47,666 --> 00:32:50,667
NARRATOR:
To Jeff, the coarseness of
the sediments
558
00:32:50,735 --> 00:32:54,370
is clear evidence
of powerful waves,
559
00:32:54,439 --> 00:32:57,307
most likely driven
by a major hurricane,
560
00:32:57,375 --> 00:32:59,609
striking here
sometime in the past.
561
00:33:01,847 --> 00:33:04,481
DONNELLY:
You'd have to have a quite
a high energy event
562
00:33:04,549 --> 00:33:06,983
to be moving this kind of
sediment from the barrier reef
563
00:33:07,052 --> 00:33:08,051
into that blue hole.
564
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:09,419
15-foot waves.
565
00:33:09,488 --> 00:33:12,489
It's something like
an intense hurricane strike.
566
00:33:13,558 --> 00:33:15,358
NARRATOR:
By retrieving organic materials
567
00:33:15,427 --> 00:33:17,060
washed in with the storm,
568
00:33:17,129 --> 00:33:20,497
like twigs and leaves
that contain carbon,
569
00:33:20,565 --> 00:33:25,034
Jeff is able to radiocarbon
date these coarser layers.
570
00:33:25,103 --> 00:33:29,105
It'll take months to know for
sure when this hurricane struck,
571
00:33:29,174 --> 00:33:32,442
but he's dated layers
from cores taken from sites
572
00:33:32,511 --> 00:33:34,878
all across the Caribbean.
573
00:33:34,946 --> 00:33:38,448
DONNELLY:
So, this is a piece
of a sediment core that we took
574
00:33:38,517 --> 00:33:39,983
in the Bahamas.
575
00:33:40,051 --> 00:33:43,753
This particular section dates
to the 18th century.
576
00:33:43,822 --> 00:33:46,623
See these light bands
here, here, and here
577
00:33:46,691 --> 00:33:48,625
are these hurricane event beds.
578
00:33:48,693 --> 00:33:51,161
They're much coarser than
the sediment around them.
579
00:33:51,229 --> 00:33:54,697
You can really feel the grit
between your fingers.
580
00:33:54,766 --> 00:33:59,402
NARRATOR:
And he's finding that the most
recent layers exactly match up
581
00:33:59,471 --> 00:34:02,539
with the dates
of modern hurricanes.
582
00:34:02,607 --> 00:34:04,774
DONNELLY:
We started coming into it, you
know, with a healthy level
583
00:34:04,843 --> 00:34:06,276
of skepticism,
584
00:34:06,344 --> 00:34:09,479
but all the storms you expect
to find end up being there.
585
00:34:09,548 --> 00:34:12,182
NARRATOR:
That gives him confidence
586
00:34:12,250 --> 00:34:15,185
that his technique is valid.
587
00:34:15,253 --> 00:34:18,621
And now he's finding evidence of
hurricanes long before
588
00:34:18,690 --> 00:34:22,325
historic records began.
589
00:34:22,394 --> 00:34:24,894
At present, we've been able
to go back about 2,000 years
590
00:34:24,963 --> 00:34:26,396
at most sites.
591
00:34:26,464 --> 00:34:30,700
Every time we find a layer that
dates to before 1600, 1700 AD,
592
00:34:30,769 --> 00:34:34,070
we're finding an event
that we never knew occurred.
593
00:34:36,174 --> 00:34:38,641
NARRATOR:
By plotting the dates
of major hurricanes
594
00:34:38,710 --> 00:34:44,047
back 1,400 years into the past,
Jeff sees a pattern emerge.
595
00:34:44,115 --> 00:34:46,683
For the first 700 years,
during the height
596
00:34:46,751 --> 00:34:49,118
of Mayan civilization,
and as the Vikings
597
00:34:49,187 --> 00:34:53,056
were colonizing Greenland,
it appears powerful hurricanes
598
00:34:53,124 --> 00:34:55,325
were more frequent than today.
599
00:34:55,393 --> 00:34:57,026
DONNELLY:
Not necessarily any more intense
600
00:34:57,095 --> 00:34:58,962
than the ones we've
experienced today,
601
00:34:59,030 --> 00:35:00,530
they just occurred
much more frequently.
602
00:35:00,599 --> 00:35:02,665
NARRATOR:
Then, over the next 700 years,
603
00:35:02,734 --> 00:35:06,236
during the Renaissance
in Europe,
604
00:35:06,304 --> 00:35:09,305
and as European settlers
were arriving in the Americas,
605
00:35:09,374 --> 00:35:12,575
the record shows
a marked decrease.
606
00:35:12,644 --> 00:35:14,210
And then, suddenly,
it shuts down.
607
00:35:14,279 --> 00:35:18,648
NARRATOR:
The Great Hurricane of 1780
falls in the period
608
00:35:18,717 --> 00:35:22,352
where there appears to have been
far fewer major hurricanes,
609
00:35:22,420 --> 00:35:25,888
making it even more unusual.
610
00:35:27,826 --> 00:35:31,160
So, what caused this decline
in hurricane activity
611
00:35:31,229 --> 00:35:35,265
beginning about 700 years ago?
612
00:35:37,302 --> 00:35:39,269
Jeff suspects it might be
partly due
613
00:35:39,337 --> 00:35:42,338
to trends in
sea-surface temperature.
614
00:35:42,407 --> 00:35:44,574
(wave crashing)
615
00:35:44,643 --> 00:35:47,277
And it turns out
there's a way to recover
616
00:35:47,345 --> 00:35:48,945
ocean temperature data
617
00:35:49,014 --> 00:35:52,515
from the remains
of tiny animals.
618
00:35:54,686 --> 00:35:57,687
DONNELLY:
We can find out about sea
surface temperatures in the past
619
00:35:57,756 --> 00:35:59,555
by looking at these
fossil corals.
620
00:36:01,026 --> 00:36:03,626
NARRATOR:
Corals build up
giant colonies
621
00:36:03,695 --> 00:36:06,596
that can last
for thousands of years.
622
00:36:06,665 --> 00:36:09,799
Cores drilled out from deep
inside their structures
623
00:36:09,868 --> 00:36:11,467
reveal layers of growth.
624
00:36:11,536 --> 00:36:15,405
DONNELLY:
These corals grow almost like
trees, so each year,
625
00:36:15,473 --> 00:36:17,307
it puts on a new band
of growth,
626
00:36:17,375 --> 00:36:20,209
and you can actually
count back in time.
627
00:36:20,278 --> 00:36:25,148
NARRATOR:
While forming their skeletons,
corals absorb oxygen
628
00:36:25,216 --> 00:36:27,283
from the seawater.
629
00:36:27,352 --> 00:36:29,752
Oxygen comes in two forms--
630
00:36:29,821 --> 00:36:35,158
oxygen 16 has eight protons and
eight neutrons in its nucleus.
631
00:36:35,226 --> 00:36:39,962
But oxygen 18
has two extra neutrons
632
00:36:40,031 --> 00:36:41,764
and is more abundant
in the ocean
633
00:36:41,833 --> 00:36:44,467
when temperatures are colder.
634
00:36:46,204 --> 00:36:49,339
By measuring the ratio
of these two forms of oxygen
635
00:36:49,407 --> 00:36:51,874
in the layers
of a coral skeleton,
636
00:36:51,943 --> 00:36:55,845
scientists can calculate
relative ocean temperatures
637
00:36:55,914 --> 00:36:58,715
over many thousands of years.
638
00:36:58,783 --> 00:37:00,817
Using corals to reconstruct
sea surface temperatures
639
00:37:00,885 --> 00:37:02,285
is really precise.
640
00:37:02,354 --> 00:37:04,253
We're able to reconstruct
it right down to the year.
641
00:37:05,957 --> 00:37:08,291
NARRATOR:
Plotting sea surface temperature
for the Caribbean
642
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:13,129
over the last 1,400 years
also reveals a trend.
643
00:37:13,198 --> 00:37:16,432
The first 700 years
look generally warmer
644
00:37:16,501 --> 00:37:18,568
than the next 700 years.
645
00:37:18,636 --> 00:37:22,605
The results match
known historical
646
00:37:22,674 --> 00:37:27,443
and scientific records that
chart a changing climate,
647
00:37:27,512 --> 00:37:30,980
from an era known today as
the Medieval Warm Period
648
00:37:31,049 --> 00:37:35,518
to a cooler period
known as the Little Ice Age.
649
00:37:35,587 --> 00:37:38,621
And when Jeff compares
sea-surface temperatures
650
00:37:38,690 --> 00:37:41,391
to his graph of hurricane
activity,
651
00:37:41,459 --> 00:37:45,061
it appears that, in the past,
whenever the sea surface
652
00:37:45,130 --> 00:37:48,731
was warmer, there were more
major hurricanes.
653
00:37:50,535 --> 00:37:53,069
There are a whole variety
of factors that can influence
654
00:37:53,138 --> 00:37:55,538
tropical cyclone activity
or hurricane activity,
655
00:37:55,607 --> 00:37:58,174
but it's clear that there
is this interaction
656
00:37:58,243 --> 00:38:01,377
between sea surface
temperatures and hurricanes.
657
00:38:01,446 --> 00:38:06,015
NARRATOR:
The pattern seems to fit what is
known about hurricane formation.
658
00:38:06,084 --> 00:38:09,419
The more energy available to
power a storm, it makes sense
659
00:38:09,487 --> 00:38:11,954
that the storms are going
to potentially get stronger.
660
00:38:12,023 --> 00:38:16,292
NARRATOR:
But these findings
present a puzzle.
661
00:38:16,361 --> 00:38:20,430
1780, the year of
the Great Hurricane,
662
00:38:20,498 --> 00:38:24,834
falls in the generally colder
period of the Little Ice Age.
663
00:38:24,903 --> 00:38:26,869
DONNELLY:
It appears at first blush
to be quite an anomaly
664
00:38:26,938 --> 00:38:29,172
that this 1780 season
and, actually, that
665
00:38:29,240 --> 00:38:31,474
a couple of decades around it
are actually one of
666
00:38:31,543 --> 00:38:33,309
the most active intervals.
667
00:38:35,113 --> 00:38:37,880
NARRATOR:
But as Jeff looks more closely
at the sea surface temperatures,
668
00:38:37,949 --> 00:38:41,784
he was able to detect a brief
but noticeable spike
669
00:38:41,853 --> 00:38:44,654
in the decades around 1780.
670
00:38:46,691 --> 00:38:48,724
And cool temperatures
in the atmosphere above
671
00:38:48,793 --> 00:38:50,827
with warm ocean water below
672
00:38:50,895 --> 00:38:54,831
is a known ingredient
for hurricane formation.
673
00:38:54,899 --> 00:38:57,900
EMANUEL:
And whenever you have two bodies
of very different temperature,
674
00:38:57,969 --> 00:38:59,702
you can create a lot
of energy that way.
675
00:38:59,771 --> 00:39:02,905
DONNELLY:
So that might explain why in the
middle of the Little Ice Age,
676
00:39:02,974 --> 00:39:06,342
we see, you know, an increase
in hurricane activity.
677
00:39:06,411 --> 00:39:12,048
NARRATOR:
Jeff's work linking hurricane
events to ocean temperatures
678
00:39:12,116 --> 00:39:14,884
could provide an explanation
for the intensity
679
00:39:14,953 --> 00:39:17,887
of the 1780 hurricane.
680
00:39:17,956 --> 00:39:21,791
And this research could sound
a warning for our future...
681
00:39:21,860 --> 00:39:25,828
...because modern data reveals
that the sea surface temperature
682
00:39:25,897 --> 00:39:28,598
of the Atlantic is now higher
than it was
683
00:39:28,666 --> 00:39:32,101
a thousand years ago,
and is still rising.
684
00:39:32,170 --> 00:39:36,906
DONNELLY:
We're actually warmer than any
point of the last millennium,
685
00:39:36,975 --> 00:39:39,509
just a fraction of a degree
at this stage,
686
00:39:39,577 --> 00:39:42,612
but the projections are that
that's going to continue.
687
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:45,381
But not only is it warmer
but it's increasing faster,
688
00:39:45,450 --> 00:39:48,117
at a faster rate than we've seen
over the entire record.
689
00:39:48,186 --> 00:39:53,389
NARRATOR:
As a result,
will we see major hurricanes
690
00:39:53,458 --> 00:39:56,058
becoming more frequent?
691
00:39:56,127 --> 00:39:57,326
DONNELLY:
We're likely to go back
692
00:39:57,395 --> 00:39:58,895
into one of those
sort of intervals
693
00:39:58,963 --> 00:40:01,531
where we're getting lots more
intense hurricane strikes.
694
00:40:03,535 --> 00:40:07,169
NARRATOR:
The temperature
of our oceans is warming.
695
00:40:07,238 --> 00:40:10,640
Greenhouse gases like
carbon dioxide,
696
00:40:10,708 --> 00:40:13,142
generated by burning
fossil fuels,
697
00:40:13,211 --> 00:40:16,112
are building up
in our atmosphere.
698
00:40:16,180 --> 00:40:18,080
These insulate our planet,
699
00:40:18,149 --> 00:40:20,416
holding in more
of the sun's heat,
700
00:40:20,485 --> 00:40:22,818
causing the oceans
to warm more quickly
701
00:40:22,887 --> 00:40:24,820
than we've detected in the past.
702
00:40:26,991 --> 00:40:29,992
EMANUEL:
The problem right now
is that the rate at which
703
00:40:30,061 --> 00:40:31,794
we're pushing
the climate system
704
00:40:31,863 --> 00:40:35,197
is very fast compared to
anything that's happened
705
00:40:35,266 --> 00:40:37,099
in a very, very long time.
706
00:40:38,536 --> 00:40:42,004
NARRATOR:
Whether this warming climate
means there will be
707
00:40:42,073 --> 00:40:46,475
more Atlantic hurricanes
is still an open question,
708
00:40:46,544 --> 00:40:50,980
but there is a growing agreement
that the hurricanes that do hit
709
00:40:51,049 --> 00:40:53,883
will be stronger.
710
00:40:53,952 --> 00:40:55,518
EMANUEL:
There is a pretty strong
consensus that,
711
00:40:55,587 --> 00:40:58,988
as the planet continues to warm,
we're going to see
712
00:40:59,057 --> 00:41:02,758
a greater incidence of
the high category hurricanes
713
00:41:02,827 --> 00:41:04,193
in most places.
714
00:41:04,262 --> 00:41:06,529
We believe that there should be
more intense storms.
715
00:41:06,598 --> 00:41:08,331
Perhaps not as many of them
are happening,
716
00:41:08,399 --> 00:41:09,932
but when they do,
they'll be stronger.
717
00:41:13,805 --> 00:41:17,607
NARRATOR:
So, can scientists predict
where these strong hurricanes
718
00:41:17,675 --> 00:41:19,175
will strike?
719
00:41:19,243 --> 00:41:20,743
¶ ¶
720
00:41:20,812 --> 00:41:23,980
Amy Frappier, who studies
ancient climates,
721
00:41:24,048 --> 00:41:28,751
has found an ingenious way to
look into the past for answers.
722
00:41:28,820 --> 00:41:31,120
Compared to the last
four centuries,
723
00:41:31,189 --> 00:41:34,357
she's finding that Atlantic
hurricanes are on the move,
724
00:41:34,425 --> 00:41:37,026
likely heading towards
the big coastal cities
725
00:41:37,095 --> 00:41:38,361
of the eastern United States.
726
00:41:38,429 --> 00:41:41,030
¶ ¶
727
00:41:41,099 --> 00:41:45,434
The evidence comes
not from beneath the waves,
728
00:41:45,503 --> 00:41:48,838
but from caves under the ground.
729
00:41:49,340 --> 00:41:52,274
(dripping)
730
00:41:53,845 --> 00:41:58,180
Locked inside stalagmites like
these are the chemical traces
731
00:41:58,249 --> 00:42:02,985
of hurricanes from thousands
of years ago.
732
00:42:06,758 --> 00:42:09,325
So here's a stalagmite
that we collected from Belize,
733
00:42:09,394 --> 00:42:11,927
where we know hurricanes have
been part of the weather.
734
00:42:11,996 --> 00:42:16,899
NARRATOR:
Rainwater that seeps through
the ground above a cave
735
00:42:16,968 --> 00:42:21,303
dissolves minerals
from the surrounding rock.
736
00:42:21,372 --> 00:42:24,807
Then, as it falls drop by drop
from the ceiling, it leaves
737
00:42:24,876 --> 00:42:29,078
a little bit of this mineral
behind and a chemical signature
738
00:42:29,147 --> 00:42:32,048
of the rainwater itself.
739
00:42:32,116 --> 00:42:36,285
This forms stalagmites
that over the years grow upwards
740
00:42:36,354 --> 00:42:38,054
from the cave floor.
741
00:42:39,757 --> 00:42:42,158
Back in her lab,
Amy slices stalagmites open
742
00:42:42,226 --> 00:42:44,860
and polishes the surfaces.
743
00:42:44,929 --> 00:42:49,331
This reveals a series
of distinct layers.
744
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:52,201
FRAPPIER:
You can see that there's
this whole history
745
00:42:52,270 --> 00:42:54,470
in here about what's
happened over time.
746
00:42:54,539 --> 00:42:57,440
In this one, it's got
lots of different changes
747
00:42:57,508 --> 00:42:59,608
in color and texture
as we go from the older part
748
00:42:59,677 --> 00:43:01,577
to the younger part at the top.
749
00:43:01,646 --> 00:43:05,481
NARRATOR:
Hunting for the chemical traces
750
00:43:05,550 --> 00:43:07,983
of a hurricane
in these layers is possible
751
00:43:08,052 --> 00:43:12,822
because rain from hurricanes
is chemically different
752
00:43:12,890 --> 00:43:15,858
from rain
during ordinary storms.
753
00:43:17,295 --> 00:43:20,229
Again, a result thanks
to the difference between
754
00:43:20,298 --> 00:43:23,265
oxygen 16 and oxygen 18,
755
00:43:23,334 --> 00:43:27,236
which has two extra
neutrons in its nucleus.
756
00:43:27,305 --> 00:43:32,041
In an ordinary storm, raindrops
evaporate slightly as they fall.
757
00:43:32,110 --> 00:43:37,246
The lighter oxygen 16
evaporates more readily,
758
00:43:37,315 --> 00:43:41,016
changing the proportions in rain
hitting the ground.
759
00:43:41,085 --> 00:43:45,221
But in a hurricane,
the air is so humid
760
00:43:45,289 --> 00:43:47,656
that there is very little
evaporation.
761
00:43:47,725 --> 00:43:52,161
This means that in hurricane
rain, there's more oxygen 16
762
00:43:52,230 --> 00:43:55,765
than in weaker, short-lived
rainstorms.
763
00:43:55,833 --> 00:43:58,234
FRAPPIER:
Whenever we see that
light oxygen signature,
764
00:43:58,302 --> 00:43:59,869
we know that that
is a fingerprint
765
00:43:59,937 --> 00:44:01,604
for a past hurricane.
766
00:44:03,207 --> 00:44:07,443
NARRATOR:
To find this chemical signature,
Amy isolates individual layers
767
00:44:07,512 --> 00:44:10,746
in the polished stalagmite,
768
00:44:10,815 --> 00:44:14,216
then drills out
a minute sample as dust.
769
00:44:20,925 --> 00:44:24,460
A mass spectrometer can read out
the chemical traces
770
00:44:24,529 --> 00:44:29,732
locked inside the dust,
and it reveals which layers
771
00:44:29,801 --> 00:44:34,270
are richer in light oxygen,
the signature of hurricane rain.
772
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:40,376
The results are so accurate
they allow Amy to tell
773
00:44:40,444 --> 00:44:43,846
if a hurricane has hit
in any given year
774
00:44:43,915 --> 00:44:46,382
thousands of years in the past.
775
00:44:47,718 --> 00:44:49,852
FRAPPIER:
The level of detail
is just unprecedented.
776
00:44:49,921 --> 00:44:51,987
We can see
the difference between
777
00:44:52,056 --> 00:44:53,956
years with a storm strike
in Belize
778
00:44:54,025 --> 00:44:56,225
and years without
a storm strike in Belize.
779
00:44:59,130 --> 00:45:02,164
NARRATOR:
With data from caves
across the Caribbean,
780
00:45:02,233 --> 00:45:06,802
the evidence suggests that the
paths of Atlantic hurricanes
781
00:45:06,871 --> 00:45:10,573
appear to be changing over time.
782
00:45:10,641 --> 00:45:13,309
FRAPPIER:
We're starting to be able
to have enough data
783
00:45:13,377 --> 00:45:14,577
that we can see
784
00:45:14,645 --> 00:45:16,846
not only overall patterns
of storm activity,
785
00:45:16,914 --> 00:45:18,948
but also changes
in storm tracks.
786
00:45:21,919 --> 00:45:26,455
NARRATOR:
Over a 450-year period,
the average track of hurricanes
787
00:45:26,524 --> 00:45:29,425
has been moving ever closer to
the continental United States.
788
00:45:32,363 --> 00:45:34,864
FRAPPIER:
400 years ago,
the storm strikes were clustered
789
00:45:34,932 --> 00:45:38,133
in the western Caribbean,
around Central America,
790
00:45:38,202 --> 00:45:40,436
and now the storm strikes seem
to be happening
791
00:45:40,504 --> 00:45:43,739
much more frequently
around the U.S. east coast.
792
00:45:43,808 --> 00:45:48,544
NARRATOR:
It's a trend that Amy
is still exploring.
793
00:45:50,948 --> 00:45:52,848
But based on satellite data,
794
00:45:52,917 --> 00:45:57,052
Kerry Emanuel has come
to a similar conclusion.
795
00:45:58,956 --> 00:46:02,091
EMANUEL:
We've discovered that
over the last 35 years,
796
00:46:02,159 --> 00:46:04,727
the latitude at which
tropical cyclones
797
00:46:04,795 --> 00:46:07,329
reach their peak intensity
has been shifting away
798
00:46:07,398 --> 00:46:12,768
from the equator at a rate
of about 35 miles per decade.
799
00:46:12,837 --> 00:46:17,539
NARRATOR:
Kerry thinks that climate change
is driving the recent shift.
800
00:46:17,608 --> 00:46:19,909
What we see when we look
at global warming is that
801
00:46:19,977 --> 00:46:22,645
the fastest warming
is occurring in the Arctic.
802
00:46:22,713 --> 00:46:27,416
Hurricanes like warm waters
and so they're shifting
803
00:46:27,485 --> 00:46:28,951
toward the poles.
804
00:46:29,020 --> 00:46:34,456
NARRATOR:
In just 30 years, that's over
100 miles closer
805
00:46:34,525 --> 00:46:38,327
to densely populated areas
of the United States
806
00:46:38,396 --> 00:46:40,863
along the Eastern Seaboard.
807
00:46:43,734 --> 00:46:46,568
The last major storm to hit
the northeast coast was
808
00:46:46,637 --> 00:46:51,173
Megastorm Sandy in October 2012.
809
00:46:51,242 --> 00:46:54,076
After leaving a trail of
destruction in the Caribbean,
810
00:46:54,145 --> 00:46:57,446
Sandy approaches the New York-
New Jersey coastline.
811
00:46:57,515 --> 00:47:01,817
Though most of the Atlantic
gets colder as you move north,
812
00:47:01,886 --> 00:47:05,387
Sandy feeds off a ribbon of warm
water that keeps it alive:
813
00:47:05,456 --> 00:47:07,089
the Gulf Stream.
814
00:47:07,158 --> 00:47:10,192
This is a circulating current
that pumps warm water
815
00:47:10,261 --> 00:47:13,128
from the Gulf of Mexico up
and across the Atlantic.
816
00:47:13,197 --> 00:47:16,832
By the time Sandy strikes
on October 29,
817
00:47:16,901 --> 00:47:20,636
it's been downgraded from
a Category 2 hurricane
818
00:47:20,705 --> 00:47:23,405
to a Category 1 storm.
819
00:47:23,474 --> 00:47:25,474
But as Sandy combines
820
00:47:25,543 --> 00:47:27,810
with another North Atlantic
storm system,
821
00:47:27,878 --> 00:47:30,713
it hits with
catastrophic impact.
822
00:47:30,781 --> 00:47:34,717
A 14-foot storm surge
races into New York City,
823
00:47:34,785 --> 00:47:37,853
flooding streets,
tunnels, and subways,
824
00:47:37,922 --> 00:47:40,289
and shorting out
electrical transmission lines.
825
00:47:40,358 --> 00:47:45,928
Across New York and New Jersey,
the storm leaves 60 people dead,
826
00:47:45,997 --> 00:47:52,901
damages 650,000 homes and causes
over $70 billion in damage.
827
00:47:54,171 --> 00:47:57,373
WOMAN:
It's just complete devastation,
828
00:47:57,441 --> 00:47:59,775
and, you know, my parents have
lived here for 40 years,
829
00:47:59,844 --> 00:48:02,644
and it's unbelievable.
830
00:48:04,782 --> 00:48:08,617
NARRATOR:
Superstorm Sandy
was massively large,
831
00:48:08,686 --> 00:48:10,953
and hit
a densely populated area.
832
00:48:11,022 --> 00:48:14,156
Its powerful storm surge
did most of the damage,
833
00:48:14,225 --> 00:48:17,793
but its winds were
not especially strong.
834
00:48:17,862 --> 00:48:21,030
SHEPHERD:
I think many people would be
surprised to know that
835
00:48:21,098 --> 00:48:23,799
Hurricane Sandy, at the time
it was impacting
836
00:48:23,868 --> 00:48:27,002
New York and New Jersey, was not
considered a major hurricane.
837
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:33,876
NARRATOR:
Imagine if it had been
a Category 3 or higher.
838
00:48:33,944 --> 00:48:36,278
It has happened before.
839
00:48:38,849 --> 00:48:42,151
The strongest recorded hurricane
to strike this coast
840
00:48:42,219 --> 00:48:44,887
hit nearly 200 years ago.
841
00:48:44,955 --> 00:48:47,222
(roaring)
842
00:48:47,291 --> 00:48:49,491
It's known
in historical records as
843
00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:54,863
the 1821 Norfolk, Long Island,
Hurricane, and is now thought
844
00:48:54,932 --> 00:48:57,866
to have come ashore as
a Category 4 storm,
845
00:48:57,935 --> 00:49:03,839
far more intense and extensive
than Sandy.
846
00:49:03,908 --> 00:49:07,176
Experts estimate that
if this storm struck today,
847
00:49:07,244 --> 00:49:12,481
it would cause over
$100 billion in damage.
848
00:49:12,550 --> 00:49:14,283
SHEPHERD:
Imagine a Category 4 storm
849
00:49:14,351 --> 00:49:18,253
impacting New York--
the flooding, the storm surge,
850
00:49:18,322 --> 00:49:20,956
the winds associated with that.
851
00:49:21,025 --> 00:49:22,157
Cities such as New York
852
00:49:22,226 --> 00:49:24,193
need to be prepared
for this type of threat.
853
00:49:27,565 --> 00:49:31,900
NARRATOR:
Many factors can affect
hurricane formation,
854
00:49:31,969 --> 00:49:35,003
but as the climate warms,
the threat of major hurricanes
855
00:49:35,072 --> 00:49:38,540
heading up from the Caribbean,
impacting the southern states
856
00:49:38,609 --> 00:49:41,777
and striking
the northeast coast,
857
00:49:41,846 --> 00:49:45,747
is one that climate scientists
are taking seriously.
858
00:49:45,816 --> 00:49:48,083
And they're highlighting
a less well-known danger
859
00:49:48,152 --> 00:49:49,818
of global warming,
860
00:49:49,887 --> 00:49:53,989
one that will make hurricanes
even more destructive.
861
00:49:55,593 --> 00:50:00,496
Warmer oceans cause
water volume to expand.
862
00:50:00,564 --> 00:50:01,663
At the same time,
863
00:50:01,732 --> 00:50:03,665
glaciers are melting.
864
00:50:03,734 --> 00:50:08,337
The result: sea level
around the world is rising.
865
00:50:08,405 --> 00:50:09,872
SHEPHERD:
If you look at some of
the more recent data,
866
00:50:09,940 --> 00:50:12,174
not only is it rising,
in more recent decades,
867
00:50:12,243 --> 00:50:13,809
it's rising at a faster rate.
868
00:50:15,279 --> 00:50:18,080
EMANUEL:
At the best guess now is that,
if we don't curb emissions,
869
00:50:18,149 --> 00:50:22,451
we'll be up a meter or three
feet by the end of the century.
870
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:25,587
NARRATOR:
The rising sea level
increases the risk
871
00:50:25,656 --> 00:50:27,756
of damaging storm surge.
872
00:50:27,825 --> 00:50:31,026
When that storm surge rides up
on top of higher sea levels,
873
00:50:31,095 --> 00:50:34,763
then it causes
a lot more destruction.
874
00:50:37,668 --> 00:50:41,603
NARRATOR:
Today, millions of people in
coastal and island communities
875
00:50:41,672 --> 00:50:43,071
are at risk.
876
00:50:45,743 --> 00:50:49,278
EMANUEL:
With all of this infrastructure
very close to sea level,
877
00:50:49,346 --> 00:50:52,648
we're much more vulnerable
to much smaller changes.
878
00:50:54,151 --> 00:50:58,120
NARRATOR:
To better understand our future,
scientists are looking
879
00:50:58,189 --> 00:51:02,858
into the past, and what they're
finding leads some to predict
880
00:51:02,927 --> 00:51:07,896
that a hurricane as deadly as
the Great Storm of 1780,
881
00:51:07,965 --> 00:51:11,667
with its huge storm surges,
will likely strike again.
882
00:51:11,735 --> 00:51:13,302
MASTERS:
We're going to see another
hurricane like
883
00:51:13,370 --> 00:51:15,804
the Great Hurricane of 1780
again on our shores,
884
00:51:15,873 --> 00:51:17,639
and it's going to hit land
at full intensity.
885
00:51:17,708 --> 00:51:20,976
CHENOWETH:
It's happened once before,
so there's no reason
886
00:51:21,045 --> 00:51:22,811
to not expect it
to happen again.
887
00:51:24,648 --> 00:51:29,518
NARRATOR:
While there is no way to predict
what lies ahead with certainty,
888
00:51:29,587 --> 00:51:31,687
the evidence suggests we need
889
00:51:31,755 --> 00:51:36,592
to be prepared to face more
killer storms in the future.
890
00:51:38,195 --> 00:51:39,995
¶ ¶
891
00:51:51,776 --> 00:51:54,176
This NOVA program
is available on DVD.
892
00:51:54,245 --> 00:51:59,815
To order, visit shopPBS.org
or call 1-800-PLAY-PBS.
893
00:51:59,884 --> 00:52:02,585
NOVA is also available
for download on iTunes.
894
00:52:05,356 --> 00:52:07,390
¶ ¶
74448
Can't find what you're looking for?
Get subtitles in any language from opensubtitles.com, and translate them here.