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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:04,967 --> 00:00:07,700 Welcome to the planet Earth. 2 00:00:08,300 --> 00:00:11,800 A world of blue nitrogen skies, 3 00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:16,100 oceans of liquid water and more kinds of living things 4 00:00:16,233 --> 00:00:19,100 than you can possibly imagine. 5 00:00:21,433 --> 00:00:24,533 You are the newest page in its four-billion-year-old 6 00:00:24,667 --> 00:00:26,400 book of life. 7 00:00:27,734 --> 00:00:29,867 We're all very young here. 8 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:32,767 New, like you, to the mysteries of the universe. 9 00:00:34,066 --> 00:00:37,867 We hope someday you will add to the little we know. 10 00:00:38,433 --> 00:00:40,467 I can see a future for you that is, 11 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:43,367 in many ways, longer and brighter, 12 00:00:43,500 --> 00:00:47,934 and more free than any human generation has ever experienced. 13 00:00:50,533 --> 00:00:53,166 I also sense danger. 14 00:00:53,867 --> 00:00:55,233 That's nothing new here. 15 00:00:55,367 --> 00:00:57,166 It's always been that way. 16 00:00:57,300 --> 00:01:00,033 To be alive is to be in some measure of jeopardy. 17 00:01:01,567 --> 00:01:03,834 Life is dangerous. 18 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:06,867 In every generation, in every time, 19 00:01:07,867 --> 00:01:10,333 everywhere on Earth. 20 00:01:10,700 --> 00:01:12,567 Our species, and our fellow Earthlings, 21 00:01:12,700 --> 00:01:14,734 have gotten through the tough times, 22 00:01:14,867 --> 00:01:17,266 when the prospects for life looked bleak. 23 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:20,266 Somehow, we manage to endure. 24 00:01:22,166 --> 00:01:24,867 And now, we want to protect you, 25 00:01:25,700 --> 00:01:30,667 and your 360,000 brothers and sisters also born on this day. 26 00:01:32,900 --> 00:01:35,133 I have so much to tell you about our world. 27 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:39,066 Some of these stories are frightening. 28 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:41,834 But don't be afraid. 29 00:01:41,967 --> 00:01:44,467 We'll find a way. 30 00:02:49,066 --> 00:02:51,533 Where do I begin? 31 00:02:51,667 --> 00:02:53,667 So much has happened before you got here. 32 00:02:54,500 --> 00:02:58,233 Fortunately, our ancestors figured out a way to reach all 33 00:02:58,367 --> 00:03:02,533 the way back in time to piece together the great story of 34 00:03:02,667 --> 00:03:04,967 our planet's own childhood. 35 00:03:05,533 --> 00:03:08,066 And the amazing things that have happened since. 36 00:03:08,667 --> 00:03:13,333 It's called science, and it's your birthright. 37 00:03:15,533 --> 00:03:21,900 It's hard to believe that all of this grandeur was once a sea of fire. 38 00:03:23,367 --> 00:03:26,133 Come, I'll show you. 39 00:03:29,934 --> 00:03:33,367 This time next year, you'll have your first birthday. 40 00:03:33,867 --> 00:03:36,533 That means you will have completed one whole trip 41 00:03:36,667 --> 00:03:39,166 around the Sun, which is what an Earth year is. 42 00:03:40,567 --> 00:03:42,767 To understand the vast time scale of the cosmos, 43 00:03:43,233 --> 00:03:46,166 and our little world, we've squished all of time into the 44 00:03:46,300 --> 00:03:47,800 scale of a single year. 45 00:03:48,633 --> 00:03:51,066 And that's where we are now. 46 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:53,000 On the Cosmic Calendar. 47 00:03:53,667 --> 00:03:56,367 Every month is a little more than a billion years, 48 00:03:57,233 --> 00:04:00,233 every day a little less than forty million. 49 00:04:01,266 --> 00:04:06,000 A single hour on this calendar is almost two million years. 50 00:04:07,133 --> 00:04:10,000 Earth was born in fire. 51 00:04:12,233 --> 00:04:14,700 Fires within its seething heart. 52 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:22,400 And great balls of rock and ice that explode in fiery impact. 53 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:27,400 One was almost as big as Mars, 54 00:04:27,767 --> 00:04:30,233 and when it struck Earth, it formed the Moon. 55 00:04:35,500 --> 00:04:39,800 But not to worry, little one, because those fireballs were 56 00:04:39,934 --> 00:04:42,000 part of the chaotic early solar system. 57 00:04:43,133 --> 00:04:45,133 In the billions of years since, 58 00:04:45,266 --> 00:04:48,033 the other worlds swept free the lanes of their orbits. 59 00:04:48,900 --> 00:04:52,767 So our solar system is a relatively peaceful place now. 60 00:04:56,033 --> 00:04:58,633 After its first half billion years, 61 00:04:58,767 --> 00:05:01,633 Earth was spinning faster than it does today. 62 00:05:02,834 --> 00:05:06,567 The days were shorter, merely six hours long. 63 00:05:09,333 --> 00:05:11,667 The Moon was ten times closer, 64 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,734 and its gravitational grip on the young planet was much stronger. 65 00:05:16,066 --> 00:05:19,333 The shores of the land were battered by the largest tidal 66 00:05:19,467 --> 00:05:21,767 waves the world has ever known. 67 00:05:22,133 --> 00:05:25,000 A thousand times greater than they are today. 68 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:29,467 The infant Earth was no place for us then. 69 00:05:30,934 --> 00:05:34,400 The atmosphere was mostly carbon dioxide, methane, and ammonia, 70 00:05:35,266 --> 00:05:38,367 a toxic environment for our kind of life. 71 00:05:38,834 --> 00:05:41,333 We don't know what the climate was like back then, 72 00:05:41,467 --> 00:05:43,333 but scientists reason that the thick, 73 00:05:43,467 --> 00:05:46,700 hazy atmosphere trapped the heat of the Earth and 74 00:05:46,834 --> 00:05:49,133 made it scorching hot. 75 00:05:49,834 --> 00:05:53,433 Another kind of life, tiny creatures that could shrug off 76 00:05:53,567 --> 00:05:57,467 the methane and eat carbon dioxide and sunlight for breakfast, 77 00:05:58,333 --> 00:06:01,200 found a way to make a living in the ocean. 78 00:06:03,100 --> 00:06:05,266 And those scrappy little cyanobacteria, 79 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:08,400 as they're known, remade the whole planet. 80 00:06:09,467 --> 00:06:11,500 By gobbling up the carbon dioxide, 81 00:06:11,633 --> 00:06:14,867 and giving off oxygen, they turned the sky blue. 82 00:06:16,567 --> 00:06:19,200 All that oxygen destroyed the methane shroud 83 00:06:19,333 --> 00:06:21,500 that enveloped our planet. 84 00:06:21,633 --> 00:06:23,667 And it was cool. 85 00:06:24,166 --> 00:06:27,066 Not as cool as it is now, but more like a really hot 86 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:29,767 summer day year-round. 87 00:06:29,900 --> 00:06:32,033 And then something wonderful happened. 88 00:06:33,233 --> 00:06:36,266 The atoms of oxygen that the tiny creatures in the ocean 89 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:40,834 produced began to gather high above the world in the sky. 90 00:06:41,734 --> 00:06:44,934 And a new kind of molecule was made. 91 00:06:45,066 --> 00:06:46,967 Ozone. 92 00:06:47,100 --> 00:06:49,700 It created an invisible canopy against those rays of 93 00:06:49,834 --> 00:06:52,100 the Sun that were lethal. 94 00:06:52,233 --> 00:06:56,166 Now, for the first time, life was free to leave the 95 00:06:56,300 --> 00:06:59,367 oceans for the land. 96 00:07:00,934 --> 00:07:04,266 And before long, life seized these new opportunities. 97 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:15,934 A wild variety of shapes and sizes evolved as adaptations 98 00:07:16,066 --> 00:07:18,533 to these new habitats. 99 00:07:18,867 --> 00:07:22,734 And there were ears and noses and wings. 100 00:07:30,900 --> 00:07:33,500 I'd like you to meet a fellow Earthling, 101 00:07:34,200 --> 00:07:37,600 a very distant relative of yours. 102 00:07:37,967 --> 00:07:39,934 You've only been here a day, 103 00:07:40,066 --> 00:07:43,667 but beetles have been here for 300 million years. 104 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:48,166 And the changes they've seen on this world... 105 00:07:50,834 --> 00:07:54,300 Our kind has only been here for a fraction of that amount of time, 106 00:07:55,367 --> 00:07:58,900 11:00 on New Year's Eve of the cosmic year. 107 00:07:59,033 --> 00:08:02,667 That's when our ancestors stood up for the first time. 108 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,834 We call them Homo erectus for that reason. 109 00:08:06,700 --> 00:08:10,200 They were no longer forced to stare at the mud beneath their feet. 110 00:08:10,734 --> 00:08:14,300 Now, they could look up and see the stars, 111 00:08:14,867 --> 00:08:17,333 and their hands were free to change the world. 112 00:08:17,467 --> 00:08:19,934 They began to move around, to explore, 113 00:08:20,066 --> 00:08:24,100 daring to risk everything to get to unknown places. 114 00:08:25,367 --> 00:08:27,400 They were brave. 115 00:08:27,533 --> 00:08:30,333 And their blood runs in your veins. 116 00:08:32,166 --> 00:08:35,033 Some of them explored the vast continent of Africa. 117 00:08:35,967 --> 00:08:39,533 Others ranged north, taking a left turn into Europe. 118 00:08:41,500 --> 00:08:44,333 There is evidence that they would later evolve into the 119 00:08:44,467 --> 00:08:47,100 lost people we call Neanderthals. 120 00:08:48,367 --> 00:08:50,500 We have no idea what they called themselves, 121 00:08:50,633 --> 00:08:52,967 but we named them after the place in Germany where 122 00:08:53,100 --> 00:08:55,333 we first discovered their ancient remains. 123 00:08:57,233 --> 00:09:00,367 Another even more mysterious branch of our family 124 00:09:00,500 --> 00:09:03,033 took a right turn into Asia. 125 00:09:03,367 --> 00:09:06,633 And they evolved into people we call the Denisovans. 126 00:09:08,867 --> 00:09:10,133 But you and I, 127 00:09:10,266 --> 00:09:12,934 and all our other human brothers and sisters, 128 00:09:13,066 --> 00:09:15,066 were mainly descended from the people who stayed in 129 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:18,000 Africa for another million and a half years. 130 00:09:19,100 --> 00:09:22,433 Sure, most of us have a little blood from the other branches of the family, 131 00:09:23,533 --> 00:09:26,300 but we are mostly the children of Africa. 132 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:29,767 To see how our kind spread out around the planet, 133 00:09:29,900 --> 00:09:31,867 we have to go even closer to midnight. 134 00:09:32,633 --> 00:09:34,233 11:55. 135 00:09:34,367 --> 00:09:36,400 Or about 150,000 years ago. 136 00:09:39,667 --> 00:09:43,467 It is now a minute and a half to midnight. 137 00:09:49,700 --> 00:09:52,467 Until about 40,000 years ago, 138 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:55,500 our Neanderthal relatives lived very much as we did. 139 00:09:57,033 --> 00:09:59,233 They had bigger brains than we do, 140 00:09:59,367 --> 00:10:00,800 and were brawnier, 141 00:10:00,934 --> 00:10:03,834 but they did many of the things that we think of as being human. 142 00:10:06,100 --> 00:10:10,700 Most of us still carry some tiny portion of their genes inside us. 143 00:10:12,667 --> 00:10:15,166 But there are no more living Neanderthals today. 144 00:10:16,033 --> 00:10:17,700 Nor are there any of our other cousins, 145 00:10:17,834 --> 00:10:19,667 the Denisovans. 146 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:24,300 When this happens, when a whole species vanishes... 147 00:10:24,433 --> 00:10:26,900 we call it extinction. 148 00:10:27,867 --> 00:10:32,133 It's the end of a road that began four billion years ago 149 00:10:32,533 --> 00:10:34,934 with the origin of life. 150 00:10:37,867 --> 00:10:39,934 We don't know why they died out. 151 00:10:40,467 --> 00:10:43,133 We do know that they never ranged beyond the ocean 152 00:10:43,266 --> 00:10:45,367 coastlines of their environment. 153 00:10:45,900 --> 00:10:49,600 Maybe our hominid cousins were just a bit more contented, 154 00:10:49,734 --> 00:10:52,800 less anxious and more at peace than we are. 155 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:56,633 Maybe it's a restlessness that prods us humans to 156 00:10:56,767 --> 00:10:58,633 choose the unknown. 157 00:10:58,767 --> 00:11:02,533 Some powerful force moved our ancestors to daring 158 00:11:02,667 --> 00:11:04,367 feats of courage. 159 00:11:04,500 --> 00:11:08,533 They crossed great oceans with no idea of what lay on the other side, 160 00:11:09,333 --> 00:11:12,367 carrying our people to every continent on Earth. 161 00:11:13,533 --> 00:11:16,233 And even to the Moon. 162 00:11:16,500 --> 00:11:18,667 By the last second of the cosmic year, 163 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:22,734 there was no place on Earth that we had left untouched. 164 00:11:25,233 --> 00:11:28,967 We became the first species to remake the planet since the 165 00:11:29,100 --> 00:11:33,100 one-celled cyanobacteria did billions of years ago. 166 00:11:33,700 --> 00:11:37,266 To change the oceans, the land and the atmosphere. 167 00:11:38,834 --> 00:11:43,233 And these changes have led to a new mass extinction. 168 00:11:43,367 --> 00:11:46,200 The scientific community has looked at the evidence, 169 00:11:46,333 --> 00:11:49,934 and decided our age needs a new name. 170 00:11:50,300 --> 00:11:52,734 The Anthropocene. 171 00:11:52,867 --> 00:11:54,533 "Anthropo" from the Greek word for 172 00:11:54,667 --> 00:11:58,000 "Human" and "Cene" the Greek word for "Recent." 173 00:11:58,900 --> 00:12:01,700 It reflects our global impact on the environment and 174 00:12:01,834 --> 00:12:04,100 the life it sustains. 175 00:12:04,233 --> 00:12:07,066 There's disagreement about when it began, 176 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:09,633 and nobody knows how it will turn out. 177 00:12:11,367 --> 00:12:13,400 Happy New Year, little one. 178 00:12:13,533 --> 00:12:16,800 Welcome to the Anthropocene. 179 00:12:23,934 --> 00:12:26,233 I see a great future for you, little one. 180 00:12:27,467 --> 00:12:29,700 But a shadow hangs over it. 181 00:12:30,233 --> 00:12:32,633 We're not exactly sure when the darkening began. 182 00:12:34,133 --> 00:12:37,800 When did we become a force of nature, altering the skies, 183 00:12:38,700 --> 00:12:40,967 the seas and the land of the planet? 184 00:12:42,300 --> 00:12:45,233 When did the age of the Anthropocene begin? 185 00:12:46,266 --> 00:12:48,867 Some would say that it started in places like this one, 186 00:12:49,767 --> 00:12:52,166 more than 10,000 years ago. 187 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:56,333 Did our ancestors paint these images of mammoths and 188 00:12:56,467 --> 00:13:00,400 saber-tooth tigers and giant sloths to somehow keep their 189 00:13:00,533 --> 00:13:04,133 memory alive after slaughtering the last of them? 190 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:09,100 Human-caused extinction is nothing new. 191 00:13:09,633 --> 00:13:12,166 But we can't really blame our ancestors. 192 00:13:12,300 --> 00:13:14,900 How could they know that this or that kill meant 193 00:13:15,033 --> 00:13:18,166 the end of an entire species? 194 00:13:19,166 --> 00:13:22,300 I wonder, maybe the Anthropocene started with the 195 00:13:22,433 --> 00:13:25,200 first seed that was planted in the ground, 196 00:13:25,533 --> 00:13:28,400 and the agricultural revolution that followed. 197 00:13:29,066 --> 00:13:32,200 Before that time, the world had twice as many trees to 198 00:13:32,333 --> 00:13:36,066 convert the Earth's carbon dioxide into oxygen. 199 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,133 With the invention of agriculture, 200 00:13:38,266 --> 00:13:42,333 our ancestors stopped wandering to settle down into 201 00:13:42,467 --> 00:13:44,433 farms and cities. 202 00:13:50,166 --> 00:13:53,133 This is Çatalhöyük. 203 00:13:53,266 --> 00:13:55,533 It was one of the earliest cities. 204 00:13:56,333 --> 00:13:59,600 This is how it looked about 9,000 years ago. 205 00:14:00,300 --> 00:14:04,400 The great move indoors changed our relationship to nature. 206 00:14:05,133 --> 00:14:07,767 Those hearths, those fires that warmed the small 207 00:14:07,900 --> 00:14:09,900 dwellings of our ancestors... 208 00:14:10,033 --> 00:14:12,200 were they the beginning? 209 00:14:12,900 --> 00:14:15,367 The smoke from those small fires did little to 210 00:14:15,500 --> 00:14:17,266 alter the atmosphere. 211 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:19,000 But over thousands of years, 212 00:14:19,133 --> 00:14:21,166 our numbers grew exponentially, 213 00:14:21,700 --> 00:14:23,934 until we were cranking out enough carbon dioxide 214 00:14:24,066 --> 00:14:27,200 into the atmosphere to warm the whole world. 215 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:31,233 Did the Anthropocene begin with 216 00:14:31,367 --> 00:14:33,500 the domestication of animals? 217 00:14:33,934 --> 00:14:37,300 Cattle convert wild grasses into methane, 218 00:14:37,433 --> 00:14:39,867 another gas that changes the climate. 219 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:43,300 It happens inside them when they're digesting their meals. 220 00:14:43,433 --> 00:14:45,073 But nobody would figure this out until the 221 00:14:45,100 --> 00:14:47,066 modern scientific era. 222 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:50,633 How could a few head of cattle do any harm, 223 00:14:50,767 --> 00:14:53,500 let alone change Earth so radically? 224 00:14:54,467 --> 00:14:56,867 Our ancestors wanted to feed their families, 225 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,533 and make sure that the little ones would not go hungry. 226 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:02,600 That they would live. 227 00:15:04,967 --> 00:15:07,633 In China, around 4,000 years ago, 228 00:15:07,767 --> 00:15:10,500 a world-changing discovery was made. 229 00:15:10,834 --> 00:15:13,834 There were rocks that you could burn for fuel to drive 230 00:15:13,967 --> 00:15:16,100 away the cold and the damp. 231 00:15:17,300 --> 00:15:20,633 These rocks were actually the carbon remains of plants and 232 00:15:20,767 --> 00:15:23,800 trees that had died hundreds of millions of years before, 233 00:15:24,934 --> 00:15:27,433 and lay buried in the earth. 234 00:15:27,934 --> 00:15:31,533 Was the discovery of coal the beginning of the Anthropocene? 235 00:15:32,333 --> 00:15:35,734 Coal became increasingly important to power forges and 236 00:15:35,867 --> 00:15:38,033 foundries and homes. 237 00:15:39,467 --> 00:15:43,333 Or did the Anthropocene really get going about 1,000 years later, 238 00:15:43,834 --> 00:15:47,300 when people all over Asia began to grow rice? 239 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:49,867 This ingenious technique, 240 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:53,200 which involves transplanting seedlings into flooded paddies, 241 00:15:53,900 --> 00:15:56,133 is called "Puddling." 242 00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:59,266 There was no way for these hardworking farmers to know 243 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:02,033 that this particular method of growing rice, 244 00:16:02,166 --> 00:16:05,767 like the cattle, would someday produce tens of millions of 245 00:16:05,900 --> 00:16:08,367 tons of methane per year. 246 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:12,266 The flooded soil loses oxygen, and then tiny, 247 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:14,734 invisible creatures, microbes, 248 00:16:14,867 --> 00:16:17,800 digest the plant matter and produce methane. 249 00:16:18,667 --> 00:16:22,533 The leaves of the rice plants release more methane into the atmosphere. 250 00:16:23,934 --> 00:16:26,867 These early farmers had no way of seeing what was 251 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:29,633 happening on the scale of the very small. 252 00:16:30,500 --> 00:16:33,467 Again, they were just trying to feed themselves 253 00:16:33,834 --> 00:16:35,867 and each other. 254 00:16:40,767 --> 00:16:43,000 There's all kinds of writing. 255 00:16:43,133 --> 00:16:45,000 But this is how time writes. 256 00:16:45,934 --> 00:16:48,033 If you know how to read time's alphabet, 257 00:16:48,166 --> 00:16:51,367 you can reconstruct events in the great story of the planet. 258 00:16:52,533 --> 00:16:55,800 The most dramatic passage in this saga is not written in 259 00:16:55,934 --> 00:16:59,000 the brightest colors, but in pale white. 260 00:17:00,133 --> 00:17:03,600 This pale white line is kind of an epic poem. 261 00:17:04,333 --> 00:17:07,100 It tells the saga of the death of titans, 262 00:17:08,033 --> 00:17:09,767 all over the planet. 263 00:17:09,900 --> 00:17:13,133 This layer of an otherwise rare metal called iridium, 264 00:17:13,266 --> 00:17:16,100 signifies the end of the Cretaceous chapter some 265 00:17:16,233 --> 00:17:18,700 66 million years ago. 266 00:17:19,033 --> 00:17:22,600 This is when dinosaurs, and three quarters of all the 267 00:17:22,734 --> 00:17:26,166 plants and animals became extinct. 268 00:17:26,533 --> 00:17:28,567 There's a custom among geologists. 269 00:17:28,700 --> 00:17:30,700 If you find a layer in the earth that indicates 270 00:17:30,834 --> 00:17:33,867 the boundary of the first or last time that the fossils of 271 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:35,734 any species can be found, 272 00:17:35,867 --> 00:17:39,333 you mark it with a "golden spike." 273 00:17:39,934 --> 00:17:42,233 You drive it into the rock with a hammer. 274 00:17:42,367 --> 00:17:45,066 If we are living in the Anthropocene, 275 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:48,333 the age of human- caused extinction, 276 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:52,767 what wall do we drive our golden spike into? 277 00:17:56,867 --> 00:18:00,266 It's in me, little one. 278 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:03,934 When I was brand new, just like you, only a day old, 279 00:18:04,066 --> 00:18:06,533 there were two great superpowers fighting 280 00:18:06,667 --> 00:18:08,767 over the planet. 281 00:18:08,900 --> 00:18:12,834 They were both willing to destroy everything to assert 282 00:18:12,967 --> 00:18:15,133 their dominance. 283 00:18:15,266 --> 00:18:19,567 On the very day I was born, both nations exploded nuclear 284 00:18:19,700 --> 00:18:23,300 weapons in the atmosphere just to show how strong they were. 285 00:18:24,967 --> 00:18:27,333 And those were only a few of the thousands that were 286 00:18:27,467 --> 00:18:30,266 detonated over a period of decades. 287 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:34,266 The bombs gave off strontium 90, 288 00:18:34,667 --> 00:18:38,367 an atom made unstable by its excess nuclear energy. 289 00:18:38,500 --> 00:18:41,133 It's called a radioactive isotope. 290 00:18:41,266 --> 00:18:44,633 It polluted mother's milk all over the planet. 291 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:49,900 Mothers nursing babies like you refused to live with this horror. 292 00:18:50,033 --> 00:18:56,333 They joined together to protest until a treaty was signed in 1963. 293 00:18:56,967 --> 00:18:59,400 I, and my whole generation, 294 00:18:59,533 --> 00:19:02,400 carry an excess of another radioactive isotope 295 00:19:02,533 --> 00:19:05,100 in the tissues of our bodies. 296 00:19:05,233 --> 00:19:07,800 It's called carbon 14. 297 00:19:07,934 --> 00:19:11,900 So if I ever lose my mind, or forget how old I am, 298 00:19:12,033 --> 00:19:14,400 the echoes of those nuclear explosions on the day 299 00:19:14,533 --> 00:19:18,000 of my birth would tell you my age. 300 00:19:19,100 --> 00:19:23,066 Does this "golden spike" inside me signify the beginning 301 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:25,700 of the Anthropocene? 302 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,300 Is that when it began? 303 00:19:29,734 --> 00:19:31,300 The atmospheric testing ended, 304 00:19:31,433 --> 00:19:33,934 but we just kept on trashing our home. 305 00:19:34,066 --> 00:19:37,400 All the while knowing that the day would come when 306 00:19:37,533 --> 00:19:40,433 it would all fall down. 307 00:19:40,567 --> 00:19:42,567 What good is it to know of a danger if you don't do 308 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:45,266 anything about it? 309 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:48,400 Maybe it's better not to know. 310 00:19:48,533 --> 00:19:51,166 Knowing can be a curse. 311 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:06,300 That live the longest are those that never were, sts 312 00:20:06,433 --> 00:20:10,066 and always will be: myths. 313 00:20:11,166 --> 00:20:13,867 Apollo, the ancient god of light, 314 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,166 was always on the prowl for attractive humans. 315 00:20:17,700 --> 00:20:20,600 One day, while strolling the bustling streets of Troy, 316 00:20:20,734 --> 00:20:23,433 a rival city of the Ancient Greeks, 317 00:20:23,567 --> 00:20:27,367 he spied Cassandra, the smartest and most beautiful of 318 00:20:27,500 --> 00:20:29,567 the daughters of King Priam. 319 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,500 Apollo fell madly in love with her. 320 00:20:37,934 --> 00:20:41,233 Apollo usually got his way, and he was shocked when 321 00:20:41,367 --> 00:20:43,734 Cassandra rejected him. 322 00:20:44,333 --> 00:20:46,467 How could he win her heart? 323 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:48,767 She lacked for nothing. 324 00:20:48,900 --> 00:20:51,166 And she was happy. 325 00:20:51,533 --> 00:20:54,967 But Apollo was not so easily dissuaded. 326 00:20:55,100 --> 00:20:58,433 And so he made her an irresistible offer. 327 00:20:59,233 --> 00:21:02,300 He would grant her the gift of prophecy, 328 00:21:02,433 --> 00:21:05,433 the ability to see the future. 329 00:21:06,333 --> 00:21:08,433 Cassandra was thrilled. 330 00:21:08,567 --> 00:21:11,300 Knowing what would happen before anyone else would make 331 00:21:11,433 --> 00:21:14,033 her all-powerful. 332 00:21:14,166 --> 00:21:17,734 But then, Apollo explained to her what he expected in return. 333 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,300 She would have to submit to him as his lover. 334 00:21:22,633 --> 00:21:25,967 This was too high a price for Cassandra. 335 00:21:26,100 --> 00:21:29,633 Apollo's rage took the form of a cruel and ingenious curse. 336 00:21:30,533 --> 00:21:33,867 He granted Cassandra the ability to foresee the future, 337 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,633 but condemned her to be ignored. 338 00:21:55,166 --> 00:21:58,100 The Trojans thought she was nuts. 339 00:21:58,233 --> 00:22:00,400 They contemptuously referred to her as the 340 00:22:00,533 --> 00:22:02,934 "Lady of Many Sorrows." 341 00:22:03,333 --> 00:22:05,867 Today she would be dismissed as a prophet of 342 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,367 gloom and doom. 343 00:22:09,500 --> 00:22:12,734 Cassandra saw nothing but trouble when her brother, Paris, 344 00:22:12,867 --> 00:22:15,166 decided to take a trip to Sparta. 345 00:22:16,100 --> 00:22:18,867 She alone knew that when he got there, 346 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,867 he would fall in love with the King's wife, 347 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:25,633 a beauty named Helen, whom he would abduct. 348 00:22:25,767 --> 00:22:28,533 This would bring ruin to Troy. 349 00:22:32,033 --> 00:22:34,967 But no one paid any attention. 350 00:22:35,233 --> 00:22:38,467 This was a time of peace and prosperity. 351 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,667 There was no clear and present danger. 352 00:22:42,367 --> 00:22:45,133 The King wouldn't listen to his daughter. 353 00:22:45,667 --> 00:22:48,000 No one would. 354 00:22:48,333 --> 00:22:50,333 When Paris brought Helen home, 355 00:22:50,467 --> 00:22:53,700 the people of Troy celebrated her arrival. 356 00:22:53,967 --> 00:22:56,166 Cassandra was so desperate to prevent the coming 357 00:22:56,300 --> 00:22:58,400 disaster that she attacked Helen. 358 00:23:00,433 --> 00:23:03,033 Cassandra knew that the Greeks would seek revenge 359 00:23:03,166 --> 00:23:05,934 against the Trojans, and that they would be victorious. 360 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,867 She foretold the defeat of her father's army, 361 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:11,934 and the sacking of Troy by the Greeks. 362 00:23:14,033 --> 00:23:16,333 And the Greeks did come, 363 00:23:16,467 --> 00:23:18,567 just as Cassandra knew they would. 364 00:23:19,567 --> 00:23:23,200 But even after years of warfare, Troy still stood. 365 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:27,500 When the Greeks retreated, 366 00:23:27,633 --> 00:23:30,233 boarding their ships and sailing out of the harbor, 367 00:23:30,367 --> 00:23:33,033 there must have been a sigh of relief among the few 368 00:23:33,166 --> 00:23:35,000 who wondered if there was 369 00:23:35,133 --> 00:23:37,934 something to Cassandra's dire predictions. 370 00:23:39,300 --> 00:23:43,133 But what about that enormous wooden horse? 371 00:23:43,467 --> 00:23:46,100 A Trojan platoon was sent to investigate. 372 00:23:46,467 --> 00:23:49,400 They found a single Greek soldier. 373 00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,266 A man named Sinon. 374 00:23:52,533 --> 00:23:55,300 The Trojans asked Sinon, "What's going on?" 375 00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,867 He told them that a King of the Greeks had wanted to offer 376 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,166 him up as a human sacrifice. 377 00:24:01,633 --> 00:24:03,533 So he'd stayed hidden until his brothers 378 00:24:03,667 --> 00:24:05,767 departed for home. 379 00:24:06,133 --> 00:24:08,467 And that colossal wooden horse? 380 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:12,166 Sinon told them that it was an offering for the goddess Athena. 381 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,667 How wonderful, the Trojans thought. 382 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:19,400 The horse was the ancient symbol of their city. 383 00:24:19,533 --> 00:24:22,333 Why not move it inside the gates and keep it as a trophy? 384 00:24:23,934 --> 00:24:28,066 Sinon laughed, and told them that the Greeks had said it was way too big 385 00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,734 and heavy for weaklings like the Trojans to move. 386 00:24:31,900 --> 00:24:34,467 "Let them stare at it all day and be ashamed about 387 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:36,100 how feeble they are." 388 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:18,400 The Trojans were terrified that Cassandra's 389 00:25:18,533 --> 00:25:22,300 attempt at arson would enrage the goddess Athena, 390 00:25:22,767 --> 00:25:25,633 and bring her wrath down upon the city. 391 00:25:44,066 --> 00:25:46,133 Once the invaders gave the signal, 392 00:25:46,266 --> 00:25:48,467 the ships of the Greek navy that had been waiting out of 393 00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,500 sight offshore commenced their attack on Troy. 394 00:26:28,567 --> 00:26:30,800 Apollo had had his fun. 395 00:26:31,166 --> 00:26:34,433 Cassandra's grim prophecies had gone unheeded, 396 00:26:34,967 --> 00:26:38,100 and now it was too late for Troy. 397 00:26:49,934 --> 00:26:53,433 For Cassandra, knowing was a curse. 398 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,300 But it can also be the greatest of blessings. 399 00:26:59,166 --> 00:27:01,333 Let me tell you another story. 400 00:27:02,900 --> 00:27:06,333 Once upon a time, there were no refrigerators. 401 00:27:19,300 --> 00:27:22,467 It used to be hard to keep food from spoiling in the summertime. 402 00:27:23,567 --> 00:27:25,200 There was a person called the "iceman." 403 00:27:26,433 --> 00:27:29,100 He would come to your house and sell you a big block of ice. 404 00:27:30,834 --> 00:27:34,000 You'd keep it in something called an "icebox" to preserve 405 00:27:34,133 --> 00:27:35,967 the kinds of food that spoil quickly. 406 00:27:37,867 --> 00:27:41,200 But that was a drag because the ice kept melting. 407 00:27:41,333 --> 00:27:44,000 It would drip all over the floor. 408 00:27:44,133 --> 00:27:46,734 So somebody thought up another way to keep food cold. 409 00:27:47,867 --> 00:27:52,467 It was a gas powered system that used ammonia or sulfur dioxide as a coolant. 410 00:27:53,967 --> 00:27:55,600 No more lugging blocks of ice. 411 00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:58,533 What could be bad about that? 412 00:27:59,367 --> 00:28:01,433 The chemicals were not only poisonous, 413 00:28:01,567 --> 00:28:04,033 they smelled terrible and there were leaks. 414 00:28:07,133 --> 00:28:08,867 A substitute coolant was badly needed. 415 00:28:09,867 --> 00:28:12,433 One that would circulate inside the refrigerator, 416 00:28:12,567 --> 00:28:14,734 but would not poison anyone if the refrigerator leaked, 417 00:28:15,867 --> 00:28:17,867 or pose a danger if it was sent to the junkyard. 418 00:28:20,734 --> 00:28:23,000 Something that wouldn't make you sick, 419 00:28:23,300 --> 00:28:25,600 wouldn't burn your eyes, or attract bugs, 420 00:28:25,734 --> 00:28:27,333 or even bother the cat. 421 00:28:28,667 --> 00:28:32,033 But in all of nature, no such material seemed to exist. 422 00:28:34,100 --> 00:28:36,467 So chemists in the United States invented a 423 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:38,400 class of molecules. 424 00:28:38,533 --> 00:28:41,333 Little collections of even tinier things called atoms, 425 00:28:42,166 --> 00:28:44,400 that had never existed on Earth before. 426 00:28:45,734 --> 00:28:48,300 They called them chlorofluorocarbons, 427 00:28:48,734 --> 00:28:52,367 or CFCs, because they were made up of one or more carbon 428 00:28:52,500 --> 00:28:55,266 atoms and some chlorine and/or fluorine atoms. 429 00:28:57,433 --> 00:28:59,767 These new molecules were wildly successful, 430 00:29:00,734 --> 00:29:03,133 far exceeding the expectations of their inventors. 431 00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,033 Not only did CFCs become the chief coolant in refrigerators, 432 00:29:21,967 --> 00:29:24,533 but also in air conditioners. 433 00:29:24,867 --> 00:29:27,166 There were so many things you could do with CFCs. 434 00:29:28,767 --> 00:29:32,033 People used them to propel great fluffy mounds of shaving cream. 435 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,934 And to protect your hair from wind and rain. 436 00:29:40,033 --> 00:29:43,000 It was also the propellant that made fire extinguishers 437 00:29:43,133 --> 00:29:45,433 and spray paint cans so much fun. 438 00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:48,767 It was good for foam insulation, 439 00:29:49,133 --> 00:29:51,133 industrial solvents and cleansing agents. 440 00:29:52,734 --> 00:29:55,967 The most famous brand name of these chemicals was Freon, 441 00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,100 a trademark of DuPont. 442 00:29:59,433 --> 00:30:03,900 It was used for decades and no harm ever seemed to come from it. 443 00:30:04,567 --> 00:30:08,033 Safe as safe could be, everyone figured. 444 00:30:08,633 --> 00:30:12,333 Until, in the early 1970s, two atmospheric chemists at the 445 00:30:12,467 --> 00:30:14,600 University of California, Irvine 446 00:30:14,734 --> 00:30:16,900 were studying Earth's atmosphere. 447 00:30:17,834 --> 00:30:20,734 Mario Molina was a Mexican immigrant, 448 00:30:21,166 --> 00:30:22,934 a young laser chemist. 449 00:30:23,066 --> 00:30:25,967 Sherwood Rowland was a chemical kineticist, 450 00:30:26,100 --> 00:30:30,200 someone who studied the motions of molecules and gases under varying conditions. 451 00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,367 He was from a small town in Ohio. 452 00:30:34,767 --> 00:30:37,900 Molina wanted to grow as a scientist. 453 00:30:38,033 --> 00:30:40,467 He was looking for a project that would take him as far 454 00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:43,033 from his previous research experience as possible. 455 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:45,333 He wondered. 456 00:30:45,467 --> 00:30:48,033 What happens to those Freon molecules when they 457 00:30:48,166 --> 00:30:50,533 leak out of the air conditioner? 458 00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,667 This was a time when the Apollo astronauts were still 459 00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,500 making regularly scheduled trips to the Moon. 460 00:30:56,867 --> 00:30:59,400 And NASA was contemplating weekly launches of 461 00:30:59,533 --> 00:31:01,467 a space shuttle. 462 00:31:02,333 --> 00:31:06,967 Would all that burning rocket fuel pose a danger to the stratosphere, 463 00:31:07,633 --> 00:31:10,967 that place where Earth's atmosphere meets the blackness of space? 464 00:31:12,867 --> 00:31:15,667 And this is how science works a lot of the time. 465 00:31:16,033 --> 00:31:17,767 You set out to solve one problem, 466 00:31:17,900 --> 00:31:19,500 and you happen on a completely different, 467 00:31:19,633 --> 00:31:21,667 unexpected phenomenon. 468 00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,266 Those wonderfully inert, "harmless" CFCs, 469 00:31:27,867 --> 00:31:31,033 the magic molecules of shaving cream and hair spray, 470 00:31:31,934 --> 00:31:34,533 didn't simply vanish when we were done with them. 471 00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:38,300 They had an afterlife at the edge of space, 472 00:31:38,633 --> 00:31:41,500 where they accumulated in the trillions. 473 00:31:41,633 --> 00:31:44,767 They were silently congregating high above the Earth, 474 00:31:45,467 --> 00:31:47,600 and they were up to no good. 475 00:31:49,700 --> 00:31:52,600 Molina and Rowland were alarmed to discover that the 476 00:31:52,734 --> 00:31:56,500 CFCs had thinned the protective layer that shielded 477 00:31:56,633 --> 00:31:59,967 us from the Sun's harmful ultraviolet radiation. 478 00:32:00,100 --> 00:32:02,500 And it was getting worse all the time. 479 00:32:04,100 --> 00:32:06,266 When UV light hits a CFC molecule, 480 00:32:07,433 --> 00:32:10,266 it strips away the chlorine atoms. 481 00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:13,967 Once that happens, the chlorine atoms start devouring 482 00:32:14,100 --> 00:32:16,734 the precious ozone molecules. 483 00:32:17,033 --> 00:32:19,667 It wasn't until our planet developed an ozone layer, 484 00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:22,166 about two and a half billion years ago, 485 00:32:22,300 --> 00:32:25,500 that it was safe for life to leave the ocean for the land. 486 00:32:26,834 --> 00:32:32,700 A single chlorine atom can destroy 100,000 ozone molecules. 487 00:32:38,700 --> 00:32:42,967 CFCs were in everything, and the manufacturers couldn't 488 00:32:43,100 --> 00:32:45,066 imagine a world without it. 489 00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,867 The corporate response to this danger was that the 490 00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,300 science hadn't been settled. 491 00:32:51,934 --> 00:32:54,600 People had a hard time believing that we had become 492 00:32:54,734 --> 00:32:58,467 powerful enough as a species to endanger life on the planet. 493 00:33:00,066 --> 00:33:02,734 They looked for non-human causes for the loss of the 494 00:33:02,867 --> 00:33:04,567 ozone in the sky. 495 00:33:04,700 --> 00:33:07,066 One Reagan administration official suggested that 496 00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:11,066 everyone just wear more sunblock and put on a hat and sunglasses. 497 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,734 But the scientists pointed out that the plankton, 498 00:33:15,867 --> 00:33:18,734 those tiny plants at the base of the global food chain, 499 00:33:18,867 --> 00:33:21,867 and the larger plants, were unlikely to do so. 500 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:26,066 Molina and Rowland tirelessly worked to warn the world. 501 00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:30,500 What's the use of having developed a science 502 00:33:30,633 --> 00:33:32,633 well enough to make predictions if, 503 00:33:32,767 --> 00:33:36,166 in the end, all we're willing to do is stand around and wait 504 00:33:36,300 --> 00:33:38,133 for them to come true? 505 00:33:39,100 --> 00:33:40,667 Rowland and Cassandra would've had a lot 506 00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:42,367 to talk about. 507 00:33:42,500 --> 00:33:45,300 But then something amazing happened. 508 00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,700 There was a global outcry. 509 00:33:48,834 --> 00:33:52,000 People all over the world got involved. 510 00:33:52,300 --> 00:33:55,433 In the 1960s, the women of the world demanded an end to 511 00:33:55,567 --> 00:33:58,500 atmospheric nuclear testing because they didn't want to 512 00:33:58,633 --> 00:34:01,400 nurse their babies with poisoned milk. 513 00:34:01,867 --> 00:34:05,200 Then, in the '80s, consumers demanded that the corporations 514 00:34:05,333 --> 00:34:08,333 stop manufacturing CFCs. 515 00:34:08,467 --> 00:34:10,600 And you know what, little one? 516 00:34:10,734 --> 00:34:12,467 The governments listened. 517 00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:16,233 CFCs were banned in 197 countries. 518 00:34:16,367 --> 00:34:19,367 That's just about as many countries as there are on this planet. 519 00:34:20,333 --> 00:34:23,600 And that's why this is one danger you can cross 520 00:34:23,734 --> 00:34:26,266 off your worry list. 521 00:34:26,567 --> 00:34:29,900 The ozone layer has been getting thicker ever since. 522 00:34:34,700 --> 00:34:37,700 But what would've happened if Rowland and Molina 523 00:34:37,834 --> 00:34:40,700 hadn't been curious about the stratosphere, 524 00:34:40,834 --> 00:34:44,066 or if their warnings had been ignored as Cassandra's were? 525 00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:46,567 By the time of your 40th birthday, 526 00:34:46,700 --> 00:34:48,600 the ozone would have been all but gone from 527 00:34:48,734 --> 00:34:50,266 the entire planet. 528 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:52,710 You would never have been able to take your own little ones 529 00:34:52,734 --> 00:34:55,500 out to bask in the sunshine. 530 00:34:57,667 --> 00:35:00,500 The food crops would have completely failed. 531 00:35:00,633 --> 00:35:02,633 The herbivores, those who live off them, 532 00:35:02,767 --> 00:35:04,500 would have died out. 533 00:35:04,633 --> 00:35:07,734 The carnivores would subsist on their corpses for a while, 534 00:35:07,867 --> 00:35:10,600 but ultimately they, too, would be doomed. 535 00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:16,500 If we continue to safeguard the ozone layer, 536 00:35:16,633 --> 00:35:20,300 it will be completely mended by your 50th birthday. 537 00:35:21,967 --> 00:35:23,900 I may not get to see it, 538 00:35:24,033 --> 00:35:26,867 but I have imagined what it might be like. 539 00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:38,000 One last story, little one. 540 00:35:38,433 --> 00:35:40,233 It's about another person who had the power to 541 00:35:40,266 --> 00:35:42,500 foresee the future. 542 00:35:43,266 --> 00:35:47,467 His story remains unknown outside the scientific community. 543 00:35:47,867 --> 00:35:51,233 But even Apollo would've envied his power of prophecy. 544 00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:55,567 He foretold an epic tale of things to come with 545 00:35:55,700 --> 00:35:58,133 astonishing accuracy. 546 00:35:58,266 --> 00:36:03,066 And every one of us, including you, are in his debt. 547 00:36:08,834 --> 00:36:12,133 He was born in a rural part of Japan named Ehime, 548 00:36:13,066 --> 00:36:15,233 which means "Lovely Princess." 549 00:36:15,767 --> 00:36:18,233 A place of unspoiled natural beauty. 550 00:36:19,166 --> 00:36:21,667 But he spent much of his childhood buried beneath the 551 00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:23,767 surface of the earth. 552 00:36:24,066 --> 00:36:27,900 The cruelest war the world had ever seen had forced the boy 553 00:36:28,033 --> 00:36:30,867 and the people of his small town to hide in an underground 554 00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:32,734 bomb shelter. 555 00:36:33,433 --> 00:36:35,700 At first, Syukuro Manabe, 556 00:36:35,834 --> 00:36:40,033 or "Suki," wanted to be a doctor, like his father and grandfather. 557 00:36:44,166 --> 00:36:47,834 He discovered physics and became enchanted by it, 558 00:36:47,967 --> 00:36:50,400 but didn't think he could do the math. 559 00:36:51,367 --> 00:36:54,867 His grades were poor, until he began to concentrate 560 00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:57,367 on the questions that interested him most. 561 00:36:58,433 --> 00:37:02,800 Why is the atmosphere and climate of Earth the way that it is? 562 00:37:02,934 --> 00:37:06,066 He wondered why Earth maintained the same average 563 00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:09,033 global temperature year after year. 564 00:37:10,133 --> 00:37:13,200 What was keeping the planetary thermostat set at that 565 00:37:13,333 --> 00:37:15,433 particular temperature? 566 00:37:15,767 --> 00:37:19,333 Was it possible to take all the variables of the planet's climate 567 00:37:19,467 --> 00:37:21,200 its atmospheric pressure, 568 00:37:21,333 --> 00:37:24,166 cloud cover, humidity, surface conditions, 569 00:37:24,300 --> 00:37:26,500 ocean and wind currents; 570 00:37:26,633 --> 00:37:28,934 and create a climate model for the planet? 571 00:37:30,233 --> 00:37:33,133 One that had the power of prophecy? 572 00:37:34,133 --> 00:37:37,667 Now remember, this was before climatologists in Japan 573 00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:39,934 had any access to computers. 574 00:37:41,033 --> 00:37:44,333 He did these brain-numbing calculations by hand. 575 00:37:49,166 --> 00:37:52,767 In 1958, he was invited to immigrate to the United States 576 00:37:52,900 --> 00:37:54,834 by the US Weather Service. 577 00:37:55,567 --> 00:37:58,133 Five years later, Manabe was given access to 578 00:37:58,266 --> 00:38:00,233 one of the first "super computers." 579 00:38:04,533 --> 00:38:07,000 When the great volume of data about Earth's climate 580 00:38:07,133 --> 00:38:10,033 crashed the entire system, he was mortified. 581 00:38:12,633 --> 00:38:16,400 It took him another four years to assemble the evidence 582 00:38:16,533 --> 00:38:20,233 for a bold and tragic prediction. 583 00:38:42,433 --> 00:38:45,433 There are broken branches on the four-billion-year-old 584 00:38:45,567 --> 00:38:47,667 tree of life. 585 00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:51,200 And this is their monument. 586 00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:55,000 Each hallway memorializes the mass extinctions that 587 00:38:55,133 --> 00:38:59,767 were so widespread that life itself came close to dying. 588 00:39:00,700 --> 00:39:03,500 The first five catastrophes happened a long time 589 00:39:03,633 --> 00:39:05,633 before we got here. 590 00:39:05,767 --> 00:39:10,467 But the sixth is now, and it has our name on it. 591 00:39:38,767 --> 00:39:42,800 Sometimes prophecy comes as a cry from the heart of a Trojan princess, 592 00:39:43,667 --> 00:39:44,900 but it can also be the 593 00:39:45,033 --> 00:39:48,233 dry-as-dust title of a scientific paper. 594 00:39:48,367 --> 00:39:52,367 Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution 595 00:39:52,500 --> 00:39:54,834 of Relative Humidity. 596 00:39:54,967 --> 00:39:56,066 Doesn't sound like, 597 00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:58,333 "The sky is falling, the sky is falling!" 598 00:39:58,467 --> 00:40:00,567 But that's what it said. 599 00:40:04,467 --> 00:40:08,166 Maybe this is where we should place our golden spike. 600 00:40:15,033 --> 00:40:17,533 Manabe and his colleague, Richard Wetherald, 601 00:40:17,667 --> 00:40:20,467 predicted how the temperature of the planet would change as 602 00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:23,567 a function of the increased greenhouse gases humans pumped 603 00:40:23,700 --> 00:40:25,734 into the atmosphere. 604 00:40:26,033 --> 00:40:28,800 The scientists foresaw precisely how the looming 605 00:40:28,934 --> 00:40:31,166 catastrophe would unfold. 606 00:40:33,333 --> 00:40:35,033 They saw far. 607 00:40:35,166 --> 00:40:39,000 Into our own time, and beyond. 608 00:40:42,133 --> 00:40:45,266 Some people still claim the science is unsettled, 609 00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:48,667 but if that's so, how was it possible for Manabe and 610 00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:51,533 Wetherald to correctly predict the rise in Earth's 611 00:40:51,667 --> 00:40:54,600 temperature across more than 50 years? 612 00:40:54,734 --> 00:40:56,800 And if it wasn't caused by us, 613 00:40:56,934 --> 00:40:59,800 where was all that carbon dioxide coming from? 614 00:41:00,066 --> 00:41:03,100 The larger community of climate scientists predicted 615 00:41:03,233 --> 00:41:05,533 heightened flooding of coastal cities, check. 616 00:41:05,667 --> 00:41:08,667 The mass death of coral reefs by ocean warming, check. 617 00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:12,333 The increase in intensity of catastrophic storms, check. 618 00:41:12,467 --> 00:41:13,967 Lethal heat waves, 619 00:41:14,100 --> 00:41:18,200 droughts and runaway wildfires of unprecedented magnitude, check. 620 00:41:19,333 --> 00:41:22,200 The scientists warned us. 621 00:41:27,166 --> 00:41:31,867 What about your future, your life, little one? 622 00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:47,633 Your first day of kindergarten was postponed until the 623 00:41:47,767 --> 00:41:51,300 thermometer dropped below the lethal temperature level. 624 00:42:00,166 --> 00:42:02,166 When the wildfires came, 625 00:42:02,300 --> 00:42:06,200 your family was forced to flee with nothing from your childhood home. 626 00:42:16,367 --> 00:42:19,433 Water was the champagne at your wedding. 627 00:43:00,567 --> 00:43:02,266 This doesn't have to be. 628 00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:04,600 It's not too late. 629 00:43:04,967 --> 00:43:08,667 There's another hallway, another future, we can still have. 630 00:43:10,166 --> 00:43:13,500 I promise to get you there. We'll find a way. 631 00:43:52,367 --> 00:43:54,333 Captioned by Cotter Captioning Services. 51634

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