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[Music]
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it began in healthy-looking pigs months
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perhaps years ago a new corona virus
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spreads silently within herds gradually
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farmers started getting sick infected
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people got a respiratory illness with
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symptoms ranging from mild flu-like
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signs to severe pneumonia the sickest
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required intensive care many died
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experts agree unless it is quickly
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controlled it could lead to a severe
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pandemic an outbreak that circles the
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globe and affects people everywhere
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the mission of the pandemic emergency
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board is to provide recommendations to
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deal with a major global challenges
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arising in response to an unfolding
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pandemic the board is comprised of
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highly experienced leaders from business
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public health and civil society we could
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be looking at double the number of cases
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in one week and 16 times as many in a
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month if we are not able to stop the
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spread that would be on the order of
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half a million cases and it would
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continue to rise exponentially in three
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months we could be approaching 10
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million cases we're at the start of
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what's looking like it will be a severe
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pandemic and there are problems emerging
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that can only be solved by global
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business and governments working
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together
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we have known about caps like viruses in
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animals and people for decades but have
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not been successful at developing a
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licensed vaccine I'm sure there are new
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technologies that may help but it's
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going to be difficult I'm not optimistic
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about having a vaccine in time to be
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relevant during this pandemic so the
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policy crisis in question for this board
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in this meeting is this how should
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government's business and international
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organizations allocate and distribute
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pandemic antivirals and medical supplies
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to the people who need the most what
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we've seen work very well in the HIV
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field is in fact procurement through the
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Global Fund so having a centralized
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mechanism so financially financially
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able to procure on behalf of affected
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countries currently critical I think the
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second thing the second thing is it's
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going to be very important that for the
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business sector for manufacturers of
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anti antivirals that we have clarity
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around what the need is and where the
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need is and who are making the decisions
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I think that given that the countries
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most affected are those that are low and
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middle-income countries with unequal
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access to technology to to finances the
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UN has worldwide footprint universally
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recognized and universal membership a
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global stockpile would certainly help
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ensure more rational and strategic
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allocation but the reality is that we
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don't have the logistics capability even
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within the UN to bring that together in
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one place and run it so this is where I
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think a collaboration between the
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international organizations like the
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World Health Organization and the
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private sector which runs the supply
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chains for many purposes every day
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understand where the supplies are make
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smart decisions about how to allocate
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them to the people who need them in the
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places that need them the most
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and then work with the industry to move
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those supplies from where they are today
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to where they need to be just to
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underscore the point that cooperation
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among supply chain providers or
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businesses that have huge supply chains
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can
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a lot of efficiency to the whole process
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the question is can you through this
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international mechanism really promote
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commitments to doing this as quickly as
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possible and give people a sense that
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actually if they contribute more that
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they will have a better chance of
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protecting their own populations in
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their country's security and health so
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to be completely clear most of this
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production would already be committed in
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contracts yeah it is almost unheard of
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that people are producing product
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without having a forward commitment for
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the consumption of that product so the
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first thing needs to be done because
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this is not something that the countries
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currently control unless countries are
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going to bring about emergency
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situations and co-opt
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an existing supply chain I think it's
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not likely I agree that that countries
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are not going to buy by countermeasure
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to put into a global supply without
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retaining a large portion of it for
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themselves
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public health agencies have issued
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travel advisories while some countries
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have been travel from the worst affected
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areas as a result the travel sector is
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taking a huge hit travel bookings are
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down 45% and many flights have been
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canceled a ripple effect is racing
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through the service sector governments
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that rely on travel and tourism as a
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large part of their economies are being
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hit particularly hard
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how should national leaders businesses
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and international organizations balance
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the risk of worsening disease that would
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be caused by the continued movement of
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people around the world against the
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risks of profound economic consequence
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of travel and trade bans if there's some
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sense that there's a UN institution that
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can do all of this then III worry we're
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suffering from a delusional disorder on
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the power of the UN it's really
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important to get those industries and
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their trade associations and an
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efficient leadership established which
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is decentralized but has a collective
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responsibility and accountability and
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that needs to be supported by the public
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leadership what is essential about this
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non-essential travel we have to clarify
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this otherwise if we go down to 20%
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bookings over long periods the company
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will run down that's effective you know
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there's a whole complex set of issues in
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a highly interdependent world on supply
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chains that are just in time we need to
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think about how much flex there is in
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that just-in-time supply chain system
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and make sure it keeps running I think
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it's going to take specificity and it's
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going to take knowledge that only the
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private sector has the UN can play an
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important coordinating facilitation role
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but the companies know where those
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commodities are where they move how to
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move them and that's where a type of
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public-private collaboration that we
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have not generally add in these crises
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needs to be put together pretty quickly
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we are not out of money yet but the fact
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is we are trending in a dangerous
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direction and something needs to change
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so the policy question for this board
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now is how should financial resources be
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prioritized are there nodes that we
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cannot allowed to fail what is your
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sense of priorities we don't have money
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to pay for all of these urgent problems
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so at the moment we want the funds right
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you need the money so where's the money
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so government kind of supplies our money
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a lot of you know private sectors you
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know some I see if you hear you have
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some money but now you need a really
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cold united centralized leverage hotels
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will be will be experiencing you know
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crippling losses doing that and we know
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that the hotel business in itself makes
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up 5% of the GDP governments need to be
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willing to do things that are out of
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their historical perspective for the
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most part it's it's really a war footing
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that we need to be on we shouldn't
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underestimate the power of
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entrepreneurship we need to escalate
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that whether it's through you know the
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government's help them with tax breaks
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or you know subsidies of that nature to
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increase the manufacturing of those
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types of products it can happen quickly
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a Marshall type plan you know it don't
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mean if they say that exactly but a
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Marshall plane they can go into effect
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and stimulate a change very quickly
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countries are reacting in different ways
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as to how best to manage the
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overwhelming amounts of disks and
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misinformation circulating over the
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Internet
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in some cases limited internet shutdowns
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are being implemented to quell panic how
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much control of information should there
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be and by whom and how can false
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information be effectively challenged
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and what if that false information is
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coming from companies or from
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governments I think it's very important
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that we make sure that there is concise
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communication with all healthcare
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facilities where these patients are
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being treated so that there isn't mass
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panic we're at a moment where the social
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media platforms have to step forward and
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recognize the moment to assert that
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they're a technology platform and not a
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broadcaster is over they in fact have to
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be a participant in broadcasting
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accurate information and partnering with
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the scientific and health communities to
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counterweight if not flood the zone of
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accurate information because it's a trek
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to put the genie back in the bottle of
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the misinformation and disinformation is
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nigh impossible one thing we haven't
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spoken about and I'm wondering whether
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it's time to talk about this is a step
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up from the part of the government's on
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enforcement actions against fake news I
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personally do not believe that try to
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shut things down in terms of information
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is either practical or desirable and we
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do have I think a couple of strategies
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that are available to is one of which is
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the flood strategy second of which is
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relying and informing and equipping
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trusted sources of information with the
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facts so they can then pass that on but
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we also need to actually think about a
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technological answer to this
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the outcome of the Cape's pandemic an
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event 201 was catastrophic 65 million
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people died in the first 18 months the
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outbreak was small at first and
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initially seemed controllable but then
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it started spreading in densely crowded
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and impoverished neighborhoods of mega
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cities from that point on the spread of
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the disease was explosive
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within six months cases were occurring
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in nearly every country the global
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economy was in a freefall the GDP down
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11% stock markets around the world
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plummeted between 20 and 40 percent and
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headed into a downward cycle of fear and
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low expectation businesses were not
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borrowing banks were not lending
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everyone was just hoping to hunker down
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and weather the storm economists say the
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economic turmoil caused by such a
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pandemic will last for years perhaps a
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decade the societal impacts the loss of
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faith in government the distrust of news
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and the breakdown of social cohesion
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could last even longer we have to ask
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did this need to be so bad are there
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things we could have done in the five to
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ten years leading up to the pandemic
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that would have lessened the
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catastrophic consequences we believe the
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answer is yes so are we as a global
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community
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now finally ready to do the hard work
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needed to prepare for the next pandemic
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[Music]
20981
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