Original subtitles

it began in healthy-looking pigs months

perhaps years ago a new corona virus

spread silently within hers gradually

farmers started getting sick infected

people got a respiratory illness with

symptoms ranging from mild flu-like

signs to severe pneumonia the sickest

required intensive care many died at

first this friend was limited to those

with close contacts health care

personnel co-workers and families but

now it's spreading rapidly throughout

local communities international travel

has turned local epidemics into a

pandemic spanning the globe just three

months ago caps started in South America

but has now reached several countries

with more than 30,000 cases and nearly

2,000 deaths

[Music]

continuing our coverage of the newly

discovered caps disease and the scope of

its deadly outbreaks there are now more

than 30,000 reported cases

experts warn this may be just the

beginning of a global problem

GNN science reporters have produced a

video about what we know so far about

caps the virus the outbreak and the

resulting chaos caps is a novel

coronavirus related to those viruses

that caused the frightening SARS

epidemic in 2003 and the deadly MERS

outbreaks in recent years scientists

think each infected person in turn

infects on average two more people this

disease is proving more transmissible

than SARS or MERS and about as

contagious as influenza essentially the

cumulative number of cases is doubling

every week at this rate we can expect to

see 16 times as many cases in a month

unless we find a way to interrupt

transmission the virus appears to be

spreading rapidly in densely populated

and impoverished neighborhoods in some

mega cities in South America

caps is a serious respiratory disease

more than half of the recognized cases

have required hospital care creating a

huge strain on health care systems the

fatality rate is about 10% for

comparison

caps is about as lethal as SARS and two

to four times more lethal than the 1918

influenza pandemic the worst pandemic on

record even so some people only exhibit

mild flu-like symptoms not requiring

treatment in a hospital alarmingly those

people are able to walk around and

spread the virus not realizing they are

doing so even worse international

travelers have been arriving at their

destination symptom-free but within a

matter of hours becoming ill travel

related cases have blossomed into

outbreaks in a number of locations and

have quickly grown faster than health

authorities could respond and contain

them in other places physicians have put

we recognize the symptoms of caps and

have been able to isolate infected

individuals and avoid an outbreak for

now global public health experts are

very concerned about this disease

because it appears the virus is readily

transmitted through the air from person

to person essentially all people are

susceptible experts agree unless it is

quickly controlled it could lead to a

severe pandemic an outbreak that circles

the globe and affects people everywhere

models developed by leading public

health authorities indicate a caps

pandemic could lead to an outcome worse

than the 1918 influenza which killed 50

to 100 million people worldwide given

the global population is four times

larger than it was in 1918 if these

models proved accurate we could be

looking at hundreds of millions of

deaths over the next year or two

[Music]

continuing our caps disease coverage and

possible solutions I'm joined by

immunologists dr. u bonnie bellow and

dr. Rhea Blakey and epidemiologists both

highly respected in their fields let's

get right to it why are people saying a

vaccine for the Cape's virus is not

likely in the near term researchers are

working on a vaccine I don't have viable

leads but it's complicated we have known

about caps like viruses in animals and

people for decades but have not been

successful at developing a licensed

vaccine I'm sure there are new

technologies that may help but it's

going to be difficult I'm not optimistic

about having a vaccine in time to be

relevant during this pandemic even if we

discover a good vaccine candidates we

are starting from scratch and it takes

time to test safety and efficacy

typically years so even if testing moves

quickly global manufacturing will still

need to be established again multiple

hurdles we simply cannot rely on these

old timelines and processes this is a

crisis we

have to move beyond these issues it may

be complicated difficult but if we

dedicate all available resources this

can happen also keep in mind we need

effective treatments sooner rather than

later extraña beer is an antiviral drug

scientists have told me this could be

effective we need to start treating

people immediately while I agree extraña

ver does the promising it's currently

useful treating HIV

however it's not manufactured on the

scale neither for treating this many

people and we will just stop using it

for HIV treatments how will we get this

drug in the quantities needed who

decides who has priority for the limited

amounts we do have we both know

countries are hoarding extraña ver

doctor in my opinion you are lost in the

details with enough money and political

will anything is possible

let's get going on this now thank you

both for this extremely important

discussion our US affiliate has just

released polling results on public

expectations for a vaccine a majority of

Americans expect a vaccine to be

available within 2 months and 65 percent

of those polled are eager to take the

vaccine even if it's experimental in

related news a significant demand for

personal protective equipment like n95

masks and gloves are on the rise due to

the pandemic

however globally hospitals are running

low additionally other critical medical

supplies such as saline and antibiotics

are dwindling countries and companies

are reportedly stockpiling supplies

disrupting healthcare supply chains

causing dangerous shortages in many

parts of the world

[Music]

in addition to global public health

crisis caps is creating havoc with a

trade and travel industries the

frightening Public Health toll of caps

continues to mount patients are

overwhelming health care facilities

around the world including many of the

makeshift triage and temporary care

facilities people are avoiding public

spaces out of fear of infection and in

compliance with public health

recommendations this has had a dramatic

effect under retail and service sectors

businesses of all kinds are struggling

to operate let alone provide basic

services as their workers have fallen

sick

or refused to come to work some

companies have allowed telecommuting but

for most businesses and employees this

is not an option public health agencies

have issued travel advisories while some

countries have been travel from the

worst affected areas as a result the

travel sector is taking a huge hit

travel bookings are down 45% and many

flights have been cancelled

a ripple effect is racing through the

service sector governments that rely on

travel and tourism as a large part of

their economies are being hit

particularly hard consumer confidence

has fallen dramatically and people are

delaying or canceling discretionary

purchases as a result manufacturers are

scaling back production on many goods on

the other hand staples like food and

medicine are being hoarded when dated

border closures and trade restrictions

are creating severe localized shortages

the Purchasing Managers Index suffered

its sharpest decline in 50 years a

leading indicator that markets are

preparing for a prolonged period of

economic disruption in some regions

politicians are adding to the noise and

confusion through social media ban all

goods and travel from infected countries

and boycott companies that spread

disease are common Twitter refrains

often led by public figures it's safe to

say we face a tough dilemma the movement

of people may facilitate the spread of

gaps but interruptions to travel and

trade

have economic consequences that are just

as bad

the response to the Cape's pandemic is

now the most expensive international

emergency ever political leaders around

globe are faced with many impossible

dilemmas including financial we have two

guests today to discuss the bottom line

of catastrophic response first up is

economist Dave gamble are we out of

money the best way to answer that is no

we are not out of money yet

but the fact is we are trending in a

dangerous direction and something needs

to change you have been quite vocal

about that and generated some

controversy along the way well look you

know me I try to avoid controversy but

come on common sense says it shouldn't

be controversial

to suggest our response should

prioritize both lives and livelihoods

absolutely we need to save lives we all

know someone who's been affected by caps

but we literally cannot afford a

heavy-handed response that suffocates

our economy pragmatism is a wise choice

I mean what exactly are the risks and

benefits of slowing air travel of

staying home from work closing schools

disrupting supply chains interfering

with our reliable channels of

communication and news sure some of

these steps can help slow caps but often

only marginally and with serious costs

when this is all over some families some

cities will have suffered more from our

interventions than from caps no

questions there is a lot of suffering

let me welcome dr. who Juan Perez

through this discussion is dr. gamble

wrong actually in a way we agree

responders whether international

organizations governments or even

employers and Families each are weighing

risks and benefits and there is not a

one-size-fits-all approach as there are

different appetite for risk what I will

say in my mind our response should aim

to protect every life we can of course

it should be but let's be frank

letting the global economy slow to a

halt puts lives at risk yeah

yes but there does need to be a balance

okay you both agree balance is paramount

theoretically that's an easy choice but

leaders are now faced with very real and

very tough decisions just last week

traditional sources for emergency

funding had exceeded their limits as new

mechanisms are being discussed various

consideration is whether funds should

primarily support health emergency

response or prop up economies precisely

and we do need these funds sooner rather

than later funding shortfalls are

putting lives at risk and extending this

devastating crisis again we seem to

agree we cannot shortchange the health

response but I suspect we disagree when

I suggest that some of these funds are

best used to save jobs and critical

industries national leaders certainly

have this on top of their minds during

the ongoing debates

look I am NOT an economist or a

politician for that matter but as a

physician I am comfortable saying that

our health responds to caps cannot

afford to wait for an incredibly complex

debate about what sounds to me like

history's most expensive economic

bailout thank you both and we will be

watching and listening for the outcome

of this fight all discussions and

certainly the market is eagerly watching

for any signs of hope

alarming news emerging from social media

companies today about the Cape's

pandemic Twitter and Facebook are

reporting they've identified and deleted

a disturbing number of accounts

dedicated to spreading disinformation

about the outbreak for more on this we

go to our correspondent Catalina parks

Chen these accounts were created by

several state-sponsored groups intending

to sow political discord and some

individuals are seemingly seeking to

gain financial advantages violence

against health care workers and minority

populations has been increasing a recent

riot highlights the real danger in these

posts countries are reacting in

different ways as to how best to manage

the overwhelming amounts of dis and

misinformation circulating over the

Internet in some cases limited internet

shutdowns are being implemented to quell

panic Thank You Catalina for more of

this we are joined by experts on crisis

communications and social media Kevin

Mack Elise and Sarah Lee to me it is

clear countries need to make strong

efforts to manage both myths and

disinformation we know social media

companies are working around the clock

to combat these disinformation campaigns

the task of identifying every bad actor

is immense and experts agree that new

disinformation campaigns are being

generated every day this is a huge

problem that's going to keep us from

ending the pandemic and might even lead

to the fall of governments as we saw in

the Arab Spring if the solution means

controlling and reducing access to

information I think it's the right

choice I agree with Kevin this is a big

problem and doesn't even account for the

massive amounts of misinformation being

generated by legitimate users about the

pandemic but it's not just trolls who

are spreading the fake news it's often

political leaders themselves who's to

judge what's real or not would we trust

every government to separate truth from

lies I think this is more than just

keeping the bad information out it's

also about making sure real public

health information reaches the public

News is found from outlets other than

social media news organizations public

health groups and companies need to help

people take the right actions to protect

themselves by promoting accurate real

information about the outbreak

the outcome of the Cape's pandemic an

event 201 was catastrophic 65 million

people died in the first 18 months the

outbreak was small at first and

initially seemed controllable but then

it started spreading in densely crowded

and impoverished neighborhoods of mega

cities from that point on the spread of

the disease was explosive

within six months cases were occurring

in nearly every country at first wealthy

countries with advanced healthcare and

public health systems were primarily

able to limit the spread of the disease

within their borders as systems became

overwhelmed however no countries were

able to control its spread and the

disease affected people of all

socioeconomic status from the very poor

to the extremely rich from sanitation

workers to CEOs and national leaders the

economic consequences were dramatic the

high death toll and even greater numbers

of sick her productivity in many

industries manufacturers were having

trouble filling orders and countless

companies in the service sector simply

shut down the global economy was in a

freefall the GDP down 11% stock markets

around the world plummeted between 20

and 40 percent and headed into a

downward cycle of fear and low

expectation businesses were not

borrowing banks were not lending

everyone was just hoping to hunker down

and weather the storm while nearly all

businesses were affected certain sectors

were especially hard-hit travel finance

service manufacturing health care and

insurance among them with some major

companies going bankrupt and there were

seismic societal consequences as well

the world saw large-scale protests and

in some places riots people were angry

about the lack of access to health care

and medicine as well as government's

inability to protect them from the

disease this led to violent crackdowns

in some countries and even martial law

political upheaval became the rule

across the globe the public lost trust

in their respective administration's

several governments fell while others

were desperate

striving to hold on to power this

spurred further crackdowns attempt to

control media messaging originally aimed

only at health-related misinformation

became used increasingly to quash

political dissent economists say the

economic turmoil caused by such a

pandemic will last for years perhaps a

decade the societal impacts the loss of

faith in government the distrust of news

and the breakdown of social cohesion

could last even longer we have to ask

did this need to be so bad are there

things we could have done in the five to

ten years leading up to the pandemic

that would have lessened the

catastrophic consequences we believe the

answer is yes so are we as a global

community

now finally ready to do the hard work

needed to prepare for the next pandemic