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it began in healthy-looking pigs months
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perhaps years ago a new corona virus
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spread silently within hers gradually
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farmers started getting sick infected
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people got a respiratory illness with
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symptoms ranging from mild flu-like
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signs to severe pneumonia the sickest
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required intensive care many died at
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first this friend was limited to those
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with close contacts health care
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personnel co-workers and families but
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now it's spreading rapidly throughout
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local communities international travel
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has turned local epidemics into a
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pandemic spanning the globe just three
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months ago caps started in South America
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but has now reached several countries
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with more than 30,000 cases and nearly
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2,000 deaths
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[Music]
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continuing our coverage of the newly
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discovered caps disease and the scope of
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its deadly outbreaks there are now more
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than 30,000 reported cases
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experts warn this may be just the
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beginning of a global problem
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GNN science reporters have produced a
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video about what we know so far about
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caps the virus the outbreak and the
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resulting chaos caps is a novel
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coronavirus related to those viruses
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that caused the frightening SARS
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epidemic in 2003 and the deadly MERS
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outbreaks in recent years scientists
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think each infected person in turn
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infects on average two more people this
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disease is proving more transmissible
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than SARS or MERS and about as
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contagious as influenza essentially the
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cumulative number of cases is doubling
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every week at this rate we can expect to
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see 16 times as many cases in a month
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unless we find a way to interrupt
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transmission the virus appears to be
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spreading rapidly in densely populated
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and impoverished neighborhoods in some
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mega cities in South America
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caps is a serious respiratory disease
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more than half of the recognized cases
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have required hospital care creating a
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huge strain on health care systems the
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fatality rate is about 10% for
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comparison
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caps is about as lethal as SARS and two
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to four times more lethal than the 1918
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influenza pandemic the worst pandemic on
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record even so some people only exhibit
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mild flu-like symptoms not requiring
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treatment in a hospital alarmingly those
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people are able to walk around and
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spread the virus not realizing they are
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doing so even worse international
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travelers have been arriving at their
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destination symptom-free but within a
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matter of hours becoming ill travel
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related cases have blossomed into
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outbreaks in a number of locations and
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have quickly grown faster than health
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authorities could respond and contain
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them in other places physicians have put
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we recognize the symptoms of caps and
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have been able to isolate infected
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individuals and avoid an outbreak for
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now global public health experts are
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very concerned about this disease
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because it appears the virus is readily
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transmitted through the air from person
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to person essentially all people are
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susceptible experts agree unless it is
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quickly controlled it could lead to a
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severe pandemic an outbreak that circles
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the globe and affects people everywhere
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models developed by leading public
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health authorities indicate a caps
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pandemic could lead to an outcome worse
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than the 1918 influenza which killed 50
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to 100 million people worldwide given
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the global population is four times
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larger than it was in 1918 if these
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models proved accurate we could be
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looking at hundreds of millions of
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deaths over the next year or two
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[Music]
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continuing our caps disease coverage and
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possible solutions I'm joined by
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immunologists dr. u bonnie bellow and
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dr. Rhea Blakey and epidemiologists both
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highly respected in their fields let's
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get right to it why are people saying a
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vaccine for the Cape's virus is not
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likely in the near term researchers are
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working on a vaccine I don't have viable
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leads but it's complicated we have known
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about caps like viruses in animals and
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people for decades but have not been
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successful at developing a licensed
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vaccine I'm sure there are new
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technologies that may help but it's
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going to be difficult I'm not optimistic
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about having a vaccine in time to be
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relevant during this pandemic even if we
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discover a good vaccine candidates we
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are starting from scratch and it takes
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time to test safety and efficacy
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typically years so even if testing moves
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quickly global manufacturing will still
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need to be established again multiple
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hurdles we simply cannot rely on these
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old timelines and processes this is a
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crisis we
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have to move beyond these issues it may
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be complicated difficult but if we
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dedicate all available resources this
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can happen also keep in mind we need
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effective treatments sooner rather than
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later extraña beer is an antiviral drug
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scientists have told me this could be
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effective we need to start treating
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people immediately while I agree extraña
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ver does the promising it's currently
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useful treating HIV
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however it's not manufactured on the
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scale neither for treating this many
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people and we will just stop using it
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for HIV treatments how will we get this
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drug in the quantities needed who
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decides who has priority for the limited
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amounts we do have we both know
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countries are hoarding extraña ver
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doctor in my opinion you are lost in the
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details with enough money and political
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will anything is possible
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let's get going on this now thank you
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both for this extremely important
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discussion our US affiliate has just
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released polling results on public
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expectations for a vaccine a majority of
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Americans expect a vaccine to be
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available within 2 months and 65 percent
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of those polled are eager to take the
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vaccine even if it's experimental in
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related news a significant demand for
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personal protective equipment like n95
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masks and gloves are on the rise due to
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the pandemic
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however globally hospitals are running
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low additionally other critical medical
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supplies such as saline and antibiotics
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are dwindling countries and companies
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are reportedly stockpiling supplies
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disrupting healthcare supply chains
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causing dangerous shortages in many
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parts of the world
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[Music]
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in addition to global public health
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crisis caps is creating havoc with a
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trade and travel industries the
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frightening Public Health toll of caps
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continues to mount patients are
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overwhelming health care facilities
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around the world including many of the
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makeshift triage and temporary care
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facilities people are avoiding public
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spaces out of fear of infection and in
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compliance with public health
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recommendations this has had a dramatic
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effect under retail and service sectors
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businesses of all kinds are struggling
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to operate let alone provide basic
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services as their workers have fallen
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sick
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or refused to come to work some
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companies have allowed telecommuting but
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for most businesses and employees this
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is not an option public health agencies
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have issued travel advisories while some
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countries have been travel from the
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worst affected areas as a result the
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travel sector is taking a huge hit
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travel bookings are down 45% and many
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flights have been cancelled
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a ripple effect is racing through the
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service sector governments that rely on
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travel and tourism as a large part of
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their economies are being hit
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particularly hard consumer confidence
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has fallen dramatically and people are
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delaying or canceling discretionary
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purchases as a result manufacturers are
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scaling back production on many goods on
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the other hand staples like food and
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medicine are being hoarded when dated
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border closures and trade restrictions
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are creating severe localized shortages
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the Purchasing Managers Index suffered
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its sharpest decline in 50 years a
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leading indicator that markets are
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preparing for a prolonged period of
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economic disruption in some regions
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politicians are adding to the noise and
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confusion through social media ban all
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goods and travel from infected countries
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and boycott companies that spread
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disease are common Twitter refrains
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often led by public figures it's safe to
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say we face a tough dilemma the movement
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of people may facilitate the spread of
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gaps but interruptions to travel and
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trade
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have economic consequences that are just
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as bad
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the response to the Cape's pandemic is
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now the most expensive international
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emergency ever political leaders around
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globe are faced with many impossible
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dilemmas including financial we have two
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guests today to discuss the bottom line
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of catastrophic response first up is
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economist Dave gamble are we out of
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money the best way to answer that is no
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we are not out of money yet
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but the fact is we are trending in a
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dangerous direction and something needs
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to change you have been quite vocal
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about that and generated some
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controversy along the way well look you
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know me I try to avoid controversy but
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come on common sense says it shouldn't
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be controversial
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to suggest our response should
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prioritize both lives and livelihoods
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absolutely we need to save lives we all
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know someone who's been affected by caps
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but we literally cannot afford a
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heavy-handed response that suffocates
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our economy pragmatism is a wise choice
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I mean what exactly are the risks and
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benefits of slowing air travel of
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staying home from work closing schools
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disrupting supply chains interfering
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with our reliable channels of
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communication and news sure some of
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these steps can help slow caps but often
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only marginally and with serious costs
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when this is all over some families some
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cities will have suffered more from our
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interventions than from caps no
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questions there is a lot of suffering
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let me welcome dr. who Juan Perez
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through this discussion is dr. gamble
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wrong actually in a way we agree
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responders whether international
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organizations governments or even
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employers and Families each are weighing
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risks and benefits and there is not a
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one-size-fits-all approach as there are
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different appetite for risk what I will
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say in my mind our response should aim
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to protect every life we can of course
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it should be but let's be frank
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letting the global economy slow to a
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halt puts lives at risk yeah
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yes but there does need to be a balance
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okay you both agree balance is paramount
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theoretically that's an easy choice but
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leaders are now faced with very real and
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very tough decisions just last week
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traditional sources for emergency
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funding had exceeded their limits as new
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mechanisms are being discussed various
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consideration is whether funds should
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primarily support health emergency
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response or prop up economies precisely
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and we do need these funds sooner rather
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than later funding shortfalls are
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putting lives at risk and extending this
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devastating crisis again we seem to
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agree we cannot shortchange the health
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response but I suspect we disagree when
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I suggest that some of these funds are
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best used to save jobs and critical
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industries national leaders certainly
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have this on top of their minds during
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the ongoing debates
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look I am NOT an economist or a
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politician for that matter but as a
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physician I am comfortable saying that
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our health responds to caps cannot
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afford to wait for an incredibly complex
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debate about what sounds to me like
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history's most expensive economic
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bailout thank you both and we will be
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watching and listening for the outcome
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of this fight all discussions and
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certainly the market is eagerly watching
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for any signs of hope
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alarming news emerging from social media
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companies today about the Cape's
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pandemic Twitter and Facebook are
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reporting they've identified and deleted
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a disturbing number of accounts
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dedicated to spreading disinformation
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about the outbreak for more on this we
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go to our correspondent Catalina parks
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Chen these accounts were created by
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several state-sponsored groups intending
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to sow political discord and some
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individuals are seemingly seeking to
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gain financial advantages violence
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against health care workers and minority
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populations has been increasing a recent
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riot highlights the real danger in these
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posts countries are reacting in
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different ways as to how best to manage
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the overwhelming amounts of dis and
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misinformation circulating over the
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Internet in some cases limited internet
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shutdowns are being implemented to quell
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panic Thank You Catalina for more of
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this we are joined by experts on crisis
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communications and social media Kevin
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Mack Elise and Sarah Lee to me it is
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clear countries need to make strong
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efforts to manage both myths and
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disinformation we know social media
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companies are working around the clock
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to combat these disinformation campaigns
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the task of identifying every bad actor
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is immense and experts agree that new
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disinformation campaigns are being
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generated every day this is a huge
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problem that's going to keep us from
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ending the pandemic and might even lead
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to the fall of governments as we saw in
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the Arab Spring if the solution means
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controlling and reducing access to
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information I think it's the right
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choice I agree with Kevin this is a big
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problem and doesn't even account for the
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massive amounts of misinformation being
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generated by legitimate users about the
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pandemic but it's not just trolls who
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are spreading the fake news it's often
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political leaders themselves who's to
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judge what's real or not would we trust
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every government to separate truth from
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lies I think this is more than just
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keeping the bad information out it's
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also about making sure real public
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health information reaches the public
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News is found from outlets other than
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social media news organizations public
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health groups and companies need to help
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people take the right actions to protect
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themselves by promoting accurate real
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information about the outbreak
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the outcome of the Cape's pandemic an
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event 201 was catastrophic 65 million
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people died in the first 18 months the
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outbreak was small at first and
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initially seemed controllable but then
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it started spreading in densely crowded
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and impoverished neighborhoods of mega
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cities from that point on the spread of
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the disease was explosive
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within six months cases were occurring
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in nearly every country at first wealthy
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countries with advanced healthcare and
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public health systems were primarily
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able to limit the spread of the disease
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within their borders as systems became
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overwhelmed however no countries were
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able to control its spread and the
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disease affected people of all
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socioeconomic status from the very poor
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to the extremely rich from sanitation
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workers to CEOs and national leaders the
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economic consequences were dramatic the
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high death toll and even greater numbers
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of sick her productivity in many
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industries manufacturers were having
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trouble filling orders and countless
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companies in the service sector simply
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shut down the global economy was in a
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freefall the GDP down 11% stock markets
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around the world plummeted between 20
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and 40 percent and headed into a
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downward cycle of fear and low
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expectation businesses were not
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borrowing banks were not lending
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everyone was just hoping to hunker down
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and weather the storm while nearly all
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businesses were affected certain sectors
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were especially hard-hit travel finance
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service manufacturing health care and
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insurance among them with some major
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companies going bankrupt and there were
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seismic societal consequences as well
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the world saw large-scale protests and
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in some places riots people were angry
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about the lack of access to health care
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and medicine as well as government's
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inability to protect them from the
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disease this led to violent crackdowns
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in some countries and even martial law
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political upheaval became the rule
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across the globe the public lost trust
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in their respective administration's
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several governments fell while others
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were desperate
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striving to hold on to power this
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spurred further crackdowns attempt to
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control media messaging originally aimed
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only at health-related misinformation
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became used increasingly to quash
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political dissent economists say the
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economic turmoil caused by such a
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pandemic will last for years perhaps a
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decade the societal impacts the loss of
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faith in government the distrust of news
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and the breakdown of social cohesion
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could last even longer we have to ask
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did this need to be so bad are there
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things we could have done in the five to
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ten years leading up to the pandemic
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that would have lessened the
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catastrophic consequences we believe the
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answer is yes so are we as a global
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community
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now finally ready to do the hard work
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needed to prepare for the next pandemic
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