Original subtitles

Today we examine the question why is it

that states, countries, nations, they

rise and they fall. Okay, so let's start

off with an example that you know pretty

well. So this is the waring states

period and at this point in history

there are many powerful states. Okay. So

for example the true, the jao, the way.

Okay. And if at this point in history,

this is about 250 uh B.CE. I asked you

to figure out using game theory, which

state would unite China and become the

first great empire of China. Well, there

are certain metrics that you would use

to figure out which state would win out.

Okay, so obviously you would look at

population.

Okay, who has the largest population?

Okay, so the question of mass.

Second question that you would look at

is maybe resources,

right? And resources, it's basically

just farmland.

So you would look at basically which

areas had the most rivers. Okay? And so

you would be like, okay, well this area

um you know looks very strategic as is

this area as is this area. Okay? And

then you would also look at maybe

technology. So basically which state has

the most scientist, which state has the

most advanced literature, arts and then

from

the these metrics then you could do some

analysis and figure out that maybe true

would come conquer all of China at some

point. Okay. But at no point using any

metrics would you assume that Ting would

conquer China. And there are certain

reasons why. First of all, it's in

mountains, so it's pretty poor. Second

of all, it's it's pretty away far away

from the rivers and trade routes. And

third of all, it's pretty isolated.

Okay, so for you could not possibly

imagine that theQing dynasty would

conquer China. But in fact, it is

theQing that would come and conquer all

of China. And not only that, but if you

look at most of human history, this

pattern repeats itself. If you look at a

region,

the strongest nation does not come out

on top. It's usually the weakest most

marginalized area that will eventually

come and conquer the entire territory

and create an empire. Okay. So clearly

the way that we understand history, it's

problematic. It's wrong. So what I want

to what I want to do is propose to you a

new way to understand how empires come

into being. Okay? And this was actually

first proposed by um a Muslim scholar

historian named Ibin Kudan. Okay.

And he proposed the idea of aasayiah.

And all this word means is basically

cohesion or group solidarity. His theory

is that yes, the people in the margins,

they're poorer, but because they're

poorer, they're more unified.

They are more they focus more on

solidarity, on working together. Whereas

in the rich areas, they become too

individualistic. They become too decent,

too corrupt. And ultimately that's why

it's always these tribes from the

margins that actually [snorts] conquer

the wealthy civilized areas. Okay? And

this is a pattern that repeat repeats

itself throughout human history all the

time. So it's almost like an iron law of

history. So what I want to do is show

you that there actually three metrics

that you can use to measure how dynamic

a society is and how likely it is to

triumph in the end. Okay, these three

metrics are energy,

openness

and cohesion.

Okay, cohesion just follows the idea of

aayiah which is just to say how likely

is it that these people are willing to

work together? Do they see themselves as

a team? Are they willing to sacrifice

themselves for each other? Are they a

family? Okay, so that's the idea of

cohesion.

Openness is a very important concept and

openness just means how willing are you

willing to adapt? How willing are you wi

how much are you willing to accept your

limitations

and be resilient? Okay, so you you can

think of openness as um humility as

resilience. Energy just means that

you're willing to work hard, you're

focused, you have a clear goal and

you're motivated to achieve this goal.

Okay, so these three metrics tell us how

dynamic society is going to be. And

using these three metrics, we can now

better understand why that theQing

dynasty was able to conquer all of

China. Okay, so the idea is that if

you're rich, okay, you're rich, okay,

what happens often is that you have low

energy. And what this means is that the

elite don't want to work anymore. They

rather just exploit

the other people. Okay, the people. And

because the people are being enslaved,

they're too much in debt. They have low

energy as well. For them, it's not

really about building a great nation.

It's not really about doing a great job.

It's just about getting by. Okay? So,

and then the idea of openness is that

[snorts] the elite become extremely

corrupt. They become very insulated.

They become very arrogant. And so they

refuse to admit that they're wrong. And

as a result, society becomes snack

stagnant. It doesn't really improve. And

the idea of cohesion is that because of

wealth inequality, because of

corruption, people are much more

individualized, people are much more

animized. Okay? And this allows for a uh

new group to come in and conquer

everyone.

Okay? Does that make sense, guys? All

right. So, um I'm going to use sorry

I'm going to use actually

um another example. Okay,

an example is

the Greek city states. And remember the

Greek city states, it's really the

height of human civilization. They gave

us Homer, Plato, Fidities, uh Sophocles.

Okay, just basically the basis for all

of western civilization. Now what's

interesting is that for most of the of

their history, the Greek city states and

these are basically like this small

small cities. Okay, there are thousand

of them and and on average they're about

a thousand people each. There are some

big city states like Athens but even

Athens is not that big. So at its height

Athens had about 50,000 people. Okay, so

these city states like Athens, thieves,

um, Sparta, okay, these are the major

ones and there are other Korean argos,

they're always in competition with each

other, very much like the Chinese waring

states as well. And again, if we look at

the year 500 BCE,

you would think that maybe Athens or

Sparta would emerge as the grand unifier

of the Greek city states. And in fact,

what happened was that Athens did become

an empire. But then the other Greek the

other Greek city states start to attack

Athens and Athens declined over time.

Okay? And the advantage that Athens had

over everyone else was just tremendous.

First of all, Athens had the greatest

navy. Okay, as you can see, uh the AGN

is primarily about who controls the

seas. So a so was able to control the

trade routes in the um Aian. Therefore,

it's the wealthiest city state. It have

the greatest population, has the most

innovation. It has the most strategic

location. It has most most wealth. So,

you would just assume that Athens would

come to conquer all the Greedy states.

But in fact, it was the Macedonians,

okay, who came in and conquered all the

city states. And at this time in

history, you couldn't possibly imagine

that because the Macedonians were poor.

They were isolated. They were not all

cultured. They were univilized. Okay.

But again, they had energy, openness,

and cohesion. And that allowed them to

conquer the citystates. What's most

what's amazing is that even after this

area was unified, okay, the Maconians

would then do the impossible and go over

and conquer the great Persian Empire,

the first great empire in human history.

It was huge. It was Egypt, Anatolia,

Mesopotamia, the Zagos malt mountains,

Persia. It was everywhere. And in a very

quick amount of time, the Macedonians

under the Great, they sailed across the

Aian. landed a small fort and then very

quickly in about 10 years time conquered

the entire Persian Empire. And at this

point in history is you would think that

the Persian Empire sorry you would think

that the new national empire would be

invincible but then what happened a few

decades later is the rise of the Romans.

Who are the Romans? Well, at this time

in history, we don't know who they are.

Okay.

Um

uh Rome is probably here somewhere.

Okay. But as you can see, the entire

Italian peninsula is being colonized by

the Greeks. And then the Romans, who

are, you know, these poor backward

tribal people, eventually over time they

will conquer the entire Italian

peninsula and they're going to go and

conquer

the Greek u mainland and then go go

south to conquer uh Carthage as well and

they will create the Roman Empire. Okay,

so this is a pattern that repeats itself

throughout human history.

The empire becomes corrupt, lazy,

arrogant. This and this gives

opportunity for a troubled people,

whether it's a Macedonians, whether it's

aqing, whether it's a Romans to come and

conquer all of them. Okay. But now the

question then is okay if that's true.

Um and so let's look at more examples,

okay, of this.

Let's look at the Aztecs. And the Aztecs

is even a more stark example. So this is

this is about the 16th century 15th

century. Okay, as you can see um the

Mexican peninsula it's it is

divided into

different waring city states. Okay, very

similar situation to the Greek city

states and the Chinese city states. Then

what's happen is the Aztecs we are going

to come in from the north. Okay. And the

Aztecs are

um a poor tribe that's starving. Okay.

So, they're basically from uh North

America. They come in because they're

looking for food and they're warrior

people. So, they're hired by other city

states to fight for them. Eventually,

they become too powerful. So, they

become isolated onto a marsh. Okay? And

this marsh, it's poor. And everyone just

put them just assumed that they would

starve to death in this marsh. What's

amazing is that as a people they became

very creative and they turn this marsh

into farmland and over time they will

slowly come to conquer everyone. Okay.

And they establish the Aztec Empire

which rules over millions and millions.

And then what happens which is one of

the greatest mysteries in human history

is you have another group of people

called the concquisidors

from Spain and there's only about 500 of

them okay

arriving about the year 195 1519 they

come in and in like a very short amount

of time they conquer the entire Aztec

Empire and Spain comes to rule basically

all of South and Latin America. Okay. So

even though yes we have a formula in

place whichever group has the most

energy whichever group is the most open

the most cohesive will conquer the other

groups it still doesn't explain to us

how this happened how this guy uh

Hernandez with 500 conquisttors was able

to come in and conquer a land

uh of millions and millions. Okay. Now,

there are historical explanations

including of course disease.

Uh people from Spain had diseases and

the Aztecs were not did not have the

immune system to counter uh these these

diseases. Another explanation is um the

Aztecs believed that these conquesters

were gods and that's why they

surrendered very quickly. Another

explanation is that the conquesttors had

allies, local allies that were pissed

off at the Aztecs. But again,

these explanations, they sound okay.

They sound like they work, but they

don't actually give us the full picture

of what really happened. And in game

theory, what we're really trying to

figure out is what happened exactly.

Okay, it's a game. How are the players

um playing the game? What are their

motivations? What are their incentives?

Okay, does it make sense? Okay, that's

that's what we're trying to figure out

what actually happened in this instance.

[snorts]

Uh I want to look at one more example

before we look into the theory of game

in in game theory. Okay, this is one of

the early civilizations in human

history. Okay, in fact um it's

considered the first great civilization

of human history. It is the Samrians.

And what happened was that um you look

at a world map. Okay, this is a world

map, right? Mesopotamia is a center of

the world because you want to access the

rest of the world, you have to go

through Mesopotamia. And if you look at

Mesopotamia, the center of Mesopotenia

is a place called Uric. Okay, sorry. U

okay, [snorts]

which is here. Okay, as you can see,

Uric is the meeting place of the

Euphrates and the Tigris. And if you

look at this, the URI uh allows you to

access uh the Persian Gulf, which gives

you access to India, [clears throat]

okay? Or we call the IBC, the Indis

Valley civilization. And then um and

then you allow and then traders are able

to take the goods and cross to Egypt,

okay? And then you're able to go north

to Anatolia.

So why did Europe become the first great

world city? Because it was a center of

all global trade. So different people

came together into the city in order to

establish a trading post. Okay. And over

time it grew and it grew and grew

because it was very wealthy.

Okay. And over time um it colonies

elsewhere. Okay. So it's up colonies in

other places. And then eventually these

different city states came into conflict

with with with each other which is the

same process as what happened with the

Chinese waring states as well as the

Greek city states. And you would assume

that one of these city states would

conquer the rest. But in fact again it

was these tribal mercenaries

uh from an isolated region called the

Acadians. The Aadians who would come and

conquer everyone else. Okay. and the

Acadians.

Okay. And after after they they built

the first empire, okay, then what

happened is that other people come over

and conquer them as well. And then you

had people from the Zagos mountains, the

Persians basically come in and unify the

entire area and create the Persian

Empire. All right. So this is a pattern

that emerges throughout human history.

It's a pretty consistent pattern. Okay,

we have theories as to why this is

happening. Yes, we do know that groups

that are energetic, open, and cohesive

are will triumph over other groups.

But the idea of game theory is to figure

out exactly what happened. Okay. So,

let's go over exactly what happened. And

I I will show you that what's happening

is that as nations rise and fall, the

games they play changes.

Okay? Does that make sense?

The game changes and therefore their

motivations, their incentives, their

strategies change over time. All right.

Okay. So, um are are we clear about the

history here? All right. Okay.

All right.

So, in the beginning, okay, game theory

game.

Okay. Rise.

Okay.

In the beginning, you as a people need

to come together and build a land in

which you can all prosper or at least

have food to eat. Okay? Therefore the

game is cooperation

and the mechanism cooperation actually

religion.

So in this first game okay what you're

trying to do is you're trying to create

a dynamic religion that motivates people

to be energetic to give them reason to

work really hard. Okay. And the people

who are best able to articulate this

religion become the elite. Okay. And

this includes poets and priests.

All right, poets and priests.

And at this point in history, it's

basically a startup. Okay, everyone's

enthusiastic. Everyone's working hard.

Everyone feels as though they're making

a positive contribution to the world.

But over time, what happens is that the

elite, okay,

become

hereditary. The game becomes how do I

the elite pass on my privileges to my

children? Okay. And and the way they do

that is by changing the religion.

Okay. The religion now becomes

almost like a bureaucracy.

So in the first game, the religion is

about energy. It's about creativity.

It's about working together. Okay. But

then in the second iteration, the the

religion becomes like a bureaucracy

which is like you must follow the rules

of the game. Okay. The rules of the game

are set. There's a hierarchy and you

must obey this hierarchy.

Okay. [snorts] Now then what happens is

a process called elite overp production.

Okay, the idea of late over production

is that yes, these privileges are being

passed on to the children, but now over

time they have there are too many

children. And so what happens is that

society breaks up into different

factions. Okay? And usually what happens

is that these factions are divided

according to the princes. Okay? So if

there are four princes, okay, who are

about to inherit the throne, there are

four different factions that support

them.

That does that does not mean the prince

is the leader of the faction. It just

means that the prince is the symbol of a

faction. Okay. All right. And at this

time in history, the way that they

reduce the conflict is is the losing

factions. What what they do is they move

away. Okay? They're exile. Okay? And

then they have to set up

a new colony.

And this is a process that continues

where the losers of the game are forced

into exile

until there's no more place to colonize.

Okay? And now you have the waring states

period. Okay? The waring states period.

And in fact, what's interesting is that

the waring states period

is a time of maximum creativity

for a civilization. Why? is the idea of

open cooperative

competition.

Okay. So, back to theQing, back to the

Greeks,

uh the um Samrians, there are different

colonies, okay? And they're all

competing against each other.

And so, you need to be open and

innovative if if you're triumph, okay?

At the same time, they're trading with

each other. So they're sharing best

practices. They're sharing innovations

with each other. Okay? So this leads to

the idea of open competition, which

again marks the height of the

civilization. So guess what guys,

China's been around for 5,000 years, but

most of the invasions happened when? It

happened during the waring states

period. 100 years when we had k

confusious mons uh la

it's basically everyone. Okay. All

right. And and [clears throat] if you

just look at um other civilizations,

it's the same for other civilizations as

well where if you look at the Greeks um

during the classical period, they

basically created everything that

becomes the foundation for western

civilization. Okay, does that make

sense? All right. Now what's interesting

is what happens next.

Eventually what happens is these city

states figure out that you know what yes

the game is we compete against each

other but we can also choose to work

together. Okay. How do you work

together? By intermarriage. Okay

intermarriage.

And the idea of intermarriage creates

the idea of equilibrium.

And at this point in history warfare

becomes organized

warfare.

Okay. So remember uh before warfare was

about innovation but now when these

elites from different city states when

they intermar with each other okay they

have a new equilibrium. So they are

above the above the state now. Okay.

Does it make sense guys? All right. So

now when they fight, it's not really

about fighting each other. It's about

reducing their population to maintain

control.

Okay? It's a way to resolve the elite o

over production issue. We have too many

people struggling for too many status

positions. And the way you do that is

through population control. Okay? So

warfare becomes a mechanism of

population

control.

All right? So even though these

city states are still in theory

competing against each other they

essentially now have reach an

equilibrium and equilibrium a no for

equilibrium is basically they have

empire.

Okay.

All right. So now the game changes.

Before during the war states period, it

was a game to see which state would be

the best, the most innovative, and

that's why you invite people who um

could contribute the most to your city

state. Okay, that's that's why you were

meritocracy. You only pro promoted the

best and the brightest. Once you reach

an equilibrium, you don't have to do

that. Okay, all you have to do is just

maintain the status quo. And so what

happens is you create this rigid

hierarchy.

And what matters is who reaches the top

office hierarchy. And as a result, you

create court politics, right? Court

politics

or factional struggle factions.

Okay? Does it make sense, guys? All

right. So if you look at any court

politics,

the faction that triumphs is the one

that's able to solve three problems.

Okay, three problems.

These three problems are

secrecy,

trust,

and coordination.

Remember,

in theory,

everyone has to obey the bureaucracy,

right? [snorts] But if you just play by

the rules of the game, you're going to

lose. So, what you want to do is you

want to cheat in the game. The way But

if you want to cheat in the game, you

have to do so secretly. Okay? You have

to do secretly. But if you do so

secretly, that creates a problem of like

how do you trust each other? If you

don't if you and if you if you're doing

it all in secret, the problem is like

how do you coordinate? How do you move

together, right? Because you you can't

have meetings where you take notes

because if you're discovered, you'll all

be executed by the other factions. Okay?

So, historically, the way we resolve

this issue is through the idea of secret

societies.

[snorts]

Okay. So, um let's figure out how secret

societies work. And this is true for

China. This is true for the Greeks. This

is true for the Aztecs. This is true for

everyone. Okay. But like there's certain

um aspects of secret societies. Okay.

The first is idea of secrecy. Okay. How

do you do that? Well, you do that

through the idea of a hierarchy.

Okay. Hierarchy

or compment comprementalization.

And so there are different so within

single societies there's a hierarchy as

well where only have people at the very

top know what's going on and if you want

to join you initiate it but you have put

at the bottom okay and slowly you climb

the ladder okay and this is to maintain

secrecy trust how do you get people to

trust each other well you get people to

trust each other through the idea of

transgression

okay

so if we cheat on attached together we

are much more likely to trust each

other. Doesn't make sense because if

you're caught you you you all get

punished. Okay. So by bringing the law

together we can trust each other. Okay.

And the most basic type of um

transgression is the idea of ritual

sacrifice.

Okay. And the idea of ritual sacrifice

is you basically decide to go kill

someone together. Okay. you capture that

person then for some um uh ritual you

then kill that person. Okay, doesn't

make sense and then to solve the problem

of coordination you have the idea of

esquetology.

Esquetology is just mythology. All

right, like why are you guys doing what

you're doing? Okay. And the answer often

is because we're trying to serve a

higher god that wants to conquer the

world and we are his servants in this

quest to conquer the world and end the

world to make it a paradise. Okay. So

different suicides have different

esquetologies but the system is the

same.

Okay. Doesn't make sense. Okay. And what

happens is and this is like really

important guys.

Every faction has to form their own

secret society. And now the game of

empire becomes one of a struggle between

different secret societies. Does it make

sense? Meaning what? Meaning you don't

care what happens to the empire. You

don't care about the enemies of the

empire. All you care about that you your

team emerges on top of the game. Okay?

And so what does that mean? It means

that you become

sorry

insular.

All right.

Okay. You become insular. You also

become corrupt.

Okay. Because you need resources to play

this game. So what you do is you steal

from the people. Okay? It's all it's all

about trying to steal as much as you can

in order to feed your faction. You

become insular. you become corrupt.

Okay. Um and then divided.

Okay. Do you understand? This is what

happens because of different factions

within the empire or the equilibrium.

They become insular, they become corrupt

and they become

uh divided. Okay. which is why

they ultimately lose to these struggle

factions because the opposite of insular

of course is open. The the um the

opposite of corrupt is energetic

and the opposite of divided is of course

cohesive cohesion. Okay.

Okay. Now we understand why ultimately

the borderlands the tribes and

borderlands are able to conquer

the empire or the equilibrium. Okay,

does that make sense, guys? All right,

but there's actually more to this. Okay,

the and so what happens is that you have

the different factions,

okay? Societies fighting against each

other. And again, from their

perspective, all they care about is

winning against the other factions. So

what do they do? What they do is they

invite

other foreigners to come help them. Hey,

do you understand?

Okay. So, these are what are called

mercenaries.

[snorts]

All right. And these mercenaries come

into them and their leadership is

absorbed into the societies through um

esquetology, through transgression,

through hierarchy. Okay. All right.

So this is what happens. These

mercenaries actually invited in. Okay.

And and and like but there's always

contact. Okay. kind of through trade

banditry

mercenary.

Okay, doesn't make sense because these

people these in the regions they're so

poor they'll do anything to survive. So

they'll trade of you but they also steal

from you and they also come and fight

for you. Okay. What's important is that

through trade they're becoming

wealthier.

Through benetry they're becoming

wealthier as well. And by become by

working as your mercenaries they're de

they are learning your best technology,

your best fighting skills, your best

weapons. Okay.

Right. And then what happens is that the

mercenaries eventually take over. Okay.

At first they merge, but then the

mercenaries just kill everyone and then

take over.

And that's how what happens. That's why

theQing were able to conquer the waring

states. Okay? They don't teach you this

in history class, but according to game

theory, what happened was that different

factions of these different states

actually inviting

just basically conquered one by one by

one. Does that make sense? Same thing

with the Macedonians, right? The master

came in and helped one city state. Then

they call one city state and move on to

the next. Okay. But it was always a

certain part of that city state, a

certain faction of that city state which

invite the mark is in the first place.

Okay?

Doesn't make sense.

And this is a pattern that repeats

itself throughout

human history.

Okay? So if you want to know what's

going to happen today, what's going to

happen tomorrow, just figure out which

areas of the world are the most

energetic, most open, and most cohesive,

and then figure out which empires are

the most corrupt, most insular, and the

most divided. Okay? And then you'll

figure out who will conquer who. All

right?

Does that make sense, guys? All right?

So, I'm going to give you two more

examples to better illustrate how this

works. All right? So when I was in high

school in Canada, we played a game

called the world game.

And in this game, it's very simple.

Okay, you're you're put into a team of

maybe four or five players. Okay. And

then each team is assigned a country

like maybe USA,

Britain,

uh India,

Pakistan, Japan

and then each team is given an envelope.

Okay. And then with within this envelope

you're given certain resources. Okay. So

basically, you know, paper,

scissors,

ruler. Okay. And then there's there's an

or organization called the World Bank.

And what you're trying to do is you're

trying to become the wealthiest country

in the world. The way you do that is you

take your resources and you turn it into

commodities that the World Bank buys

from you. Okay? Okay, so maybe like

triangles and circles and squares. Okay,

but to create these commodities, you

need resources, right? You need

scissors, you need rulers, you need

paper, you need glue,

okay, but different countries will have

different resource resources. So United

States has everything. Okay.

And Pakistan is interesting because

Pakistan usually gets nothing.

Okay. There are no resources.

But you're allowed to trade with each

other, right? Okay. You're allowed to

trade with each other. [snorts]

Okay. So, even though you have nothing,

you can go to United States and beg and

say, "Oh, oh, can I please borrow your

ruler for for today?" Okay. You go to

Britain says, "Hey, can I can I borrow

your paper for today?" Okay? Or, "Hey,

I'll come work for you for free." Right?

You can trade. And so you play this for

for one day and it's really interesting

what happens. Okay, usually what happen

I'm not saying all the time but I've

seen this happen a lot. At the end of

the day you you look at who are the

wealthiest countries in the world. What

happens is well the United States

becomes number one. Okay. Why? Because

United States just has everything in the

world. It is the wealthiest country in

the world. It has too much resources.

Okay. But number two is interesting. You

would think it would be Japan and

Britain, but it's actually Pakistan,

okay? The country that starts out with

nothing at all. Why? Because they're

forced to be the most energetic, the

most open, and most cohesive. Team

members have to go and beg to work for

free. Okay? Other team members go and

lie and cheat and steal. Okay? They're

forced to be resourceful and creative.

Okay? the world game. And that's how the

world works, guys. Just because you have

the most resources, just because you

have the most people does not mean

you'll win the game at the end. What

matters is how energetic your people

are, how open they are, how resourceful

they are. That's what matters.

Okay? And often they are open,

energetic, and cohesive because they're

poor.

All right? It's that simple. Pakistan

has nothing. So they're they're forced

to be creative. Poverty leads to

creativity.

Okay.

Another thing this is that if I were to

surmise the future, I would say right

now in in East Asia, I would think that

North Korea has a better future than

China.

Okay? Just based on history. And it

would be like that's impossible. North

Korea can feed its own people. Well, I

understand that. But if you know game

theory, okay, and you understand the

principles that we've learned today,

then you're forced to conclude that in

East Asia, North Korea has a better

future than China because ultimately

it's about how open, energetic, and

cohesive the people are as opposed to

how rich and powerful you are. Okay,

does that make sense? I will also point

out another example.

Okay. [snorts] So before teaching in

high school, I was teaching uh teachers

how to teach STEM. Okay. State STEM

education.

And I usually run two-day workshops.

And what I would do is I go into a

school and I divide the faculty, the

teachers into teams, okay? Like teams of

like four or five. There'd be like 10

teams. Okay? There'd be a lot of

teachers. And the way I teach is I would

give them an assignment and I I I would

give them resources and I and it would

be a competition. Okay, so for example,

let's look at which team can build the

fastest car. Okay, toy car. Let's look

at let's look at which team can build um

the best airplane. Uh let's look at

which team can build a catapult. Okay,

so so I would give them some resources.

I give them the assignment and then they

would work on a whole day. Okay. Now,

what's interesting is at the end of the

first day, you would have

I would rank the teams. Okay.

And then number two, and then day two,

we would start the competition again

with a new assignment.

On day two, which team would finish

first? Do you guys know?

So after day one all 10 teams are ranked

according to their success. Okay. So

team one has the best 10 team team 10

has the worst. What happened the second

day? Can you guys guess?

>> I think team 10 wins.

>> Yeah. Okay. According to game theory,

what happens is team 10 wins. And this

this exactly what happens. The results

are reversed. Okay. number 10 shoots up

to number one and then number one falls

all the way down.

This is what happens a lot. It's it's

actually common sense if you think about

it, right? If you're the best student in

the school, you never have to reflect.

You never have to like think about how

to improve because you're always number

one. So you become arrogant. You become

complacent. So after you graduate from

school, what happens? You can't find any

work because people find you too

arrogant. You refuse to learn. You want

to be the boss. You want people to just

listen to you. Okay. But if you're the

worst student in a school, you're used

to being laughed at. You're used to um

constantly adapting. Okay? So when you

go into the workplace,

you are much more likely to

uh learn. You're much more likely to

focus on relationships.

Okay? So in China China, there's a joke,

right? In school, there are two people

that everyone hates. Okay? the best

student and the worst student. Why do

you hate the best student? Because the

best student is going to graduate and

come back as your principal one day. Why

do you hate the worst student? Because

he's going to graduate and come back and

give you a lecture on how to become

rich.

Okay? That's why in China, everyone

hates the best student and the worst

student. And these are and these are two

students who will probably be the most

successful. Okay? Especially the worst

student because the worst student,

regardless of all his problems, he's

openminded. He's willing to work hard

and he's willing to help build teams and

make make sacrifices so that others

become his friend. Okay. Right. Um uh

yeah we have a question.

Um so like for example for this case in

day two the team 10 becomes the first

one and the first team becomes the last

but will the like will the previously

the first team been forced to be open

and to be energetic and then be number

one again on the third day. That is a

great question. Thank you for asking it.

Okay so in my experience this is what

happens. Okay.

What happens is that

if what happens if we keep on going

right? What happens in day three

day team team day

day three day four. Okay this this this

what happens. Team one

really screws up on day two, right? They

finish first in day one. Day two, they

screw up.

Day three and day four, they continue to

screw up. Why? Because they don't know

what they did wrong and they refuse

to

um reflect. Do you understand? Okay. So,

we see this in history where an empire

once it rises, it falls. It never comes

back. It never comes back. Do you

understand? It never rise up up again.

Now, it's possible that new people come

in and use the name of the empire, okay?

But it's not the same people anymore.

It's a different team. So, that's a

danger of being number one.

Once you're number one,

you become so arrogant that it's that

impossible for you to be humble again.

Okay.

Um, team two, we go down. Okay. So it's

very unlikely that you have a system

where okay uh team one they fall but

then they reflect and become number one

again. Okay. It doesn't work that way.

When societies fall they just die off.

Okay. It's possible a new group comes

and pretends to be them but they're

actually a different people. And and

that's just way that humans work.

Okay. Does that make sense? Yes.

>> Okay.

Yep.

So on the third day, the team 10 will

become the second last group because

they fall and the n the group nine will

be the first one. Is that the cycle that

will go on?

>> Um yeah. So I' I've never run a day

three so I can't say for sure. Okay. But

but that that's what should happen.

Okay.

All right, that's what should happen

where yes, team 10 will fall off and a

new team will come into place. Okay. All

right. And if you look at history,

that's just the way it is. Again, we

don't have an example of where an empire

fell but then the people decide to like

change their um their uh mentality and

then they become the best again. Okay.

So, in the future, if you if we apply

this theory, there should be three

countries that will emerge as great

empires in our history. Okay,

Germany. Why? Because they lost World

War I and lost World War II. Does that

make sense, guys? They were never an

empire. They were never a world empire.

So, Germany, according to this theory,

will one day come to rule the world or

at least Europe and Asia. Okay? And if

you if you actually look at their

history, what happened in World War I,

World War II, they lost millions of

people. Okay? So, Germany will will be

one day a great empire. I'm pretty sure

of it actually. And then there's another

country that would be a great empire and

that is

Japan because Japan lost World War II.

They were never a great empire. So Japan

should come to dominate East Asia

according his theory. Remember the

Americans dropped two nukes on Japan,

right? And also look at World War II,

the Americans destroyed Japan with

firebombing. They the Americans killed

more fire bombing than actually did with

the nukes. Okay? But Japan was

destroyed. It was humiliated. And and

now you go to Japan, you can see how

energetic people are, right? You can see

how open they are. And you can see how

cohesive they are.

You understand?

Because Japan was destroyed in World War

II. It's something that force them to

reflect as a people and now they want

vengeance basically. All right. And the

last country of course is Israel, right?

Because Israel, the people in Israel

believe that for thousands of years they

were persecuted by other people. Okay.

So these are three great empires that we

we will move towards in our history.

Germans, Japan uh uh Japanese and the

Israelis. Okay. Does that make sense?

>> Mhm.

>> All right. The Americans are done.

>> How about China?

>> Done. Okay. [snorts]

All right. [clears throat]

Look, look guys, guys. I mean like like

this is all just a theory, okay? But all

I'm saying is look around you and ask

yourself, are the people here

open-minded? Are they willing to learn

from their mistakes? Do they ever say

I'm wrong?

Are people energetic? Do do they take

their work very seriously? If I give

people an assignment, will they work

really hard to make sure it's done well?

Do people feel as though they're all

part of one big group? Are are they

willing to make sacrifices for each

other?

Okay, Japan is. Okay, that's all I'm

saying. and maybe even the North Koreans

are. All right, does that make sense,

guys? And again, it's all just a theory.

All right, I I'm just proposing to you a

theory of how to understand the world,

but what's actually going to happen, I

can't actually tell you, right? But

according to this theory, um Germany and

Japan and Israel will be the three great

nations.

Any more questions, guys?

>> Yeah. C can you can you

>> Oh, yeah. But like for example the uh

Japan that it did didn't have that much

sources. So how could they succeed?

[laughter]

>> I I keep on telling you guys you don't

need resources. You can cheat, you can

steal, you can beg. All right.

Okay. Does that make sense?

>> Yeah.

>> Okay. Like like if you just go back to

the world game, um whichever team starts

off with the least resources are often

the most creative. Okay. When I mean

creative, they'll just like go and like

lie to people. Says, you know, like I'll

come work to you for free, but then

you'll steal some some resources

yourself. Okay. All right. Because they

have actually no choice in the matter,

right? Uh yeah. Yeah. So I have a little

questions like uh you you say that those

who are poorest and like in the most

dangerous positions always have the most

energy and cohesions to succeed. But I I

think eventually

>> All right. So so so so okay. Let me be

precise. Okay. Yeah.

>> Just because you're poor does not mean

you're open, energetic, and cohesive.

Okay. Does not mean that.

>> But if you want to go from being poor to

becoming rich, you have to be open,

energetic, and cohesive. Does that make

sense?

>> Yeah. So

>> because in Africa, they're poor, but

doesn't mean they're open, energetic,

and cohesive.

>> Yeah. So, so my question is like after

they become successful and they are

eventually re rich, I think like like

all society they may fall as like be

when they reach the their their their

higher state, right?

>> Yes.

>> Yes.

>> Yeah. And so my question is uh like you

you say that like the J Japan or Germany

will eventually become the like the

leader of the of the of their like

>> regions

>> regions but like I I understand that

after World War II the Japan and German

really develop very fast but like now

they are all wealthy societies and also

[snorts] They're young the youngesters

the young the the new like people in

their country forget about the war and

they well when they born they born in

the wealthy and like happy happy

societies. So how can you make sure that

the the society those society will

continue to cohesions and developed but

not like just to fail like other rich

societies.

>> Okay, you know that's a great question.

That's a great point. Okay, you're

absolutely right because after World War

[snorts] II uh Japan and Germany become

very wealthy. So if they become very

wealthy then in theory shouldn't they

become also corrupt, insular and

arrogant? And the answer is no. Okay?

And there's good reason why. Because

ultimately power means that you're able

to impose your game on other people.

You're able to make other people play

your game and therefore you're able to

extract rent from other people. Okay?

And that's what and that's what these

secret sides are fighting for. They're

fighting for power. Who becomes the game

master. The problem with Japan and

Germany is yes became very wealthy but

the game master was America.

And ultimately America decided that

their money belongs to me. Okay. So an

example of this is something called the

plastic courts. Okay. Plac courts.

[snorts]

Basically the plastic court just meant

that um Japan was was becoming too

wealthy. America got very annoyed. So

America said to Japan I want you to

destroy your economy. And Japan's like

how? America says just say says I want

you to spend too much money. I want you

people to stop saving money and start

spending money. Go overseas and buy

whatever crap you want. Okay? [snorts]

Do you understand? So in theory it

seemed as though Japan got rich but

Japan got rich but it never had any

power. It it it could not be a sovereign

nation. Okay. Power means that you're

able to impose your will on other

people. Same with Germany where yes

Germany became very wealthy but all that

money went where? It went to America

right? Same with Japan. Japan all that

money went to America. H how? Because

they were forced to buy US treasury

bonds.

Okay. And then America could do stuff to

you. For example, um America could force

Japan to sign a plastic cord and force

Japan to destroy its own economy. And

America could also destroy Germany's

pipeline, North Street. And there's

nothing Germany can do about it. Okay?

In fact, the German economy has been

destroyed right now because Germany is a

vassal state to America.

So when um Russia invaded Ukraine,

America just basically said to Germany,

you can no longer do business deals with

Russia. But before Germany required

Russian oil and energy to fuel its

economy. Okay. America also said to

Germany, you can you can no longer trade

with China. But before most of uh German

car exports were going to China, right?

>> Yeah. And because

Germany was forced out of the China

market, China was able to develop its

own manufacturing industry.

>> Okay. Does that make sense?

>> Yeah.

>> So it seems as though Germany and Japan

become very wealthy. They were not. They

they were just vast states to America.

>> Yeah.

>> Okay. Does that make sense?

>> Yeah. So I have a

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Uh so like you said

that only those society who are very

poor but they want to they have the

ability to co to to cohisions and be

energetic and they can they can like

eventually become the ruler of the

regions. But what decide a society or a

poor society to become energetic

cohesions or not? Like why Japan or

German uh have that energy but like

those other countries that may also like

be defeated on in the war or is very

poor uh cannot.

>> Yeah, that's a great question. Yeah. So

the answer the obvious answer is a

leader. Okay. So you look at the

Mongols, right? the Mongols uh before

the emergence of of gang of Khan, the

Mongols were almost like a vassal state,

right? Because the Mongols were divided,

they were poor,

um they they were willing to do whatever

it took to survive. And so um they

became mercenaries to the Song, they

became mercenaries to other groups as

well. Okay. But then emerg to unify

everyone. And once he was able to unify

everyone, the Mongols were very quickly

able to destroy everyone else. Okay? So

it's usually a great leader. But leader

doesn't necessarily mean a general. It

could also mean a poet,

right? So someone like Homer or a great

thinker to give you a new religion.

Okay? So for example, the person had

someone called Zorah

which who we studied last semester.

Okay? Even Jesus. Okay? But it's someone

to come in to say that we are a people

and it could be a poet, it could be um a

general, [snorts] it could be a um

prophet, a priest, doesn't matter. Okay.

But that one person

then unifies the imagination of everyone

into one cohesive group.

>> Okay. Does that make sense?

>> Yeah.

>> Okay. But that's a great question. Thank

you. Okay. And that's why some certain

groups uh are able to um cohhere

together and other groups are not

because one um person is able to merge

and you know that's why okay we'll talk

about this later on but that's why the

world is the way it is. Why do we have

organizations like the United Nations?

Why do we have international development

aid? The goal guys is to identify the

possibility

of a leader emerging and make sure he

does not emerge. You understand?

Okay. If you left Africa alone, Africa

will be a lot better. But because you

have all these schools, all these NOS's,

all these organizations in Africa, what

they're really doing is ensuring that

Africa is in a continuous state of

development. Okay? If you just left them

alone, they might starve. But at the

same time, a great deal might emerge to

unite all of them.

You understand? Okay. But we'll talk

about this next class. How the American

Empire controls the world. [snorts]