Original subtitles

We continue our discussion of the US

Iran war that is happening right now.

So, um

as you know, I made a prediction that

the United States will lose this war.

And last class, we did an overview

of the military and strategic position.

And today, we're going to provide some

theoretical framework for how to

understand

how this war will progress and why

ultimately I believe the United States

will lose this war.

Today, I present to you a very important

idea in game theory.

And once you understand this idea, you

understand

why things will turn out the way they

do. Okay? It's called a law of

asymmetry. Okay? Law

of

asymmetry.

And all this is saying is that

the United States and Iran are not

peers. They're not equals.

United States is far stronger

than Iran. And we should expect the

United States to overwhelm and destroy

Iran really easily.

But the law of asymmetry states that

that's usually not the case. It's

usually the underdog

that has the advantage.

And we see this from history all the

time.

Okay? So, when the Persians in about 490

BC invaded mainland Greece against

Athens and Sparta,

Persia at this time at that time was the

first world empire. It had infinite

resources, infinite manpower, infinite

wealth, and it lost to the Greeks not

once but twice.

And and then, the Macedonians under

Alexander the Great, and they were like

a tribal army, not a very large army.

They were able to go into Persia, and

Persia at the at the time was basically

most of Eurasia and conquered [snorts]

in about 10 years time.

The Romans started off as a tribal

people,

which then built the Mediterranean

empire.

Then you have the Aztecs, you have So,

the Vikings. So, this happens a lot in

human history.

A people in the borderlands, a tribe, a

small ethnicity, are able to conquer a

great empire. And the law of asymmetry

tells us why, okay? So, I'm going to go

over uh very slowly in detail how this

law of asymmetry works.

>> [snorts]

>> All right.

So, um

let's look at an empire.

And there are three major advantages to

an empire.

All right, the first is mass.

This is means that they have a lot of

people, okay? They almost have an

infinite amount of people. The United

States has a population of about 350

million people, but remember, the United

States can also draw on the populations

of its allies, which includes the Five

Eyes, the Anglosphere, but it also

includes Europe. It also includes

uh

East Asia, South Korea, Japan, basically

wherever

the markets have a military base.

All right, so most of the world are

either allies of the United States or

vassals of the United States. So, the

United States can basically draw on in

billions and billions of people for its

wars, okay? So, it's mass.

Second is the IDEA OF ORGANIZATION.

ORGANIZATION JUST MEANS a hierarchy of

bureaucracy and elite that allows you to

organize

your resources and your people in order

to generate wealth, which is basically

science and technology, okay? Science

and technology.

Which leads to the most advanced

weaponry, okay? So, think about the

United States, how they fight this war.

They have these satellites that provide

for precision targeting. They have these

airplanes, these B-2 bombers, F-15s that

are the most advanced

um weaponry ever in human history.

Okay? So, organization. Now, the last

great strength of the empire is the IDEA

OF DEATH.

DEATH IS THE IDEA that because your

people are infinite, because your

organization is so strong, because your

resources are so vast, you can afford to

lose many, many wars, okay? It's not a

big deal if the United States loses this

war in Iran. If they want to go back,

they can go back with even more

soldiers, even more um weaponry

because their wealth is infinite.

Okay? So, these are the three major

advantages

of an empire. And in theory, because of

these advantages, an empire should be

invincible and eternal.

But we know for a fact that all empires

fall, and they fall very, very hard. And

quite honestly, they don't last a very

long time. Maybe 20 years, maybe 30

years for most empires. That's not a

very long time.

So, we need to better understand what's

going on, okay? Why is it that an empire

with these vast resources, they all fall

in 20 years, 30 years, okay? All right.

So,

um

What we need to understand is that all

these advantages are ultimately

disadvantages in the long term. All

right, so let me let me let me explain

what I mean.

Mass, you have a lot of people, okay?

When you have a lot of people, you

create a lot of inequality.

Why? Because

there's competition for resources.

There's too many people.

Okay? And this often leads to debt and

slavery.

And as a result, your people become

complacent, lazy, indifferent. They're

competing against each other. They

really don't like the government, okay?

So, they're not really that motivated

to do anything

to work or to fight wars, but especially

to fight wars.

So, this mass looks like an looks like

an advantage in the beginning, but over

time it becomes a disadvantage.

All right? Organization

um means an elite.

The problem with this

is that over time the elite become

parasites.

Why? Because the way the way they make

their money is through rent seeking.

Rent seeking just means that you have

power and you seek to monetize your

power by exploiting the mass.

All right? So, basically landlords

are classic type of rent seeking elite.

And so, they don't really work, but they

make a lot of money because they own the

land, because they control all the

resources, because they control all of

the capital. And that forces the mass to

go into slavery, to go into debt, which

is what's happening in America today.

The problem with this is that every

everyone wants to be part of the elite.

And And are too many elite over time.

Okay? So, even though you have the elite

have many, many kids,

the uh power is a zero-sum game, it's a

hierarchy. And so, this leads to the

idea of elite overproduction.

Okay? Elite overproduction.

This is a term

um coined by the historian Peter

Turchin.

Okay? And his theory is that you have

turmoil, you have wars.

For example, the French Revolution, for

example, uh the fall of the Roman

Republic, because there's too many

elite, and they start wars to claim

power for themselves.

Okay? So, this organization, this elite,

leads to basically factionalism

or infighting.

And that's what's happening in America

today, where the Democrats and the

Republicans, they hate hate each other,

they refuse to get along.

It's leads to political po-

polarization. Okay?

So, another thing this is that an empire

over time becomes insular. They don't

care about what happens outside the

world, all they care about is what

happens in Washington, D.C.

And as a result, um they make a lot of

stupid mistakes, okay?

All right. The last thing is debt. Okay,

the problem with debt is that if there

are no consequences to your actions, you

become arrogant, you become lazy,

uh

and you become incompetent, okay?

Because you don't care. It doesn't

really matter. And this leads to the

idea of hubris.

Okay? Hubris is this blindness to your

own arrogance, a violent arrogance that

makes you make silly mistakes, but you

don't recognize your mistakes, and you

keep on repeating the same mistakes over

and over again.

All right? So, yes, it seems like the

empire is invincible, but if you

actually think about it,

the empire its advantages become over

time its disadvantages, which which will

lead ultimately to its downfall.

Okay? So, the mass leads to inequality,

the organization leads to

overproduction, which leads to

factionalism, and death leads to hubris.

That's why an empire must fall over

time.

But an empire cannot fall by itself. It

needs an enemy that forces it to

collapse. Okay?

And so, what happens is that an enemy

will emerge that will

overwhelm the empire because it is able

to take advantage of the weaknesses of

the empire.

All right? And so,

what are the weaknesses of this empire?

Well, the first major weakness of this

empire is that the people aren't really

motivated. So, if you as people are

really motivated, you have a huge

advantage, okay? We call this energy.

All right?

Now, as an as an empire, you become

insular. You refuse to admit your

mistakes. You refuse to learn from

others.

Well, if you are willing to admit your

mistakes, if you're willing to learn, if

you're willing to

promote the best and brightest, if

you're willing to meritocratic, you have

a huge advantage, okay? And so, this

idea of openness.

The last idea is this. An empire it's

fractured. So, if you're able to main

maintain cohesion,

if your people are able to remain

united, if they're able to have a common

purpose,

they would be strong, okay?

So,

if an enemy of the empire emerges with

these three qualities, energy, openness,

and cohesion, this enemy will defeat the

empire.

It doesn't make sense. Okay. So, what I

want you to focus on as you follow the

news in this war between United States

and Iran is ask yourself a question.

Will Iran become an energetic, open, and

cohesive society?

Because if it does,

it will become invincible.

The empire won't change because of

hubris.

It's too static. It's too stagnant. It's

too bureaucratic. So, the empire won't

change. The empire will not admit its

own mistakes.

And quite honestly, Iran, because

because it's a it's a still a country of

92 million people, it still suffers from

issues of mass organization and death.

It's And so, if it's able to transform

itself into an energetic, open, and

cohesive society, then it will triumph

over America. That is the fundamental

question in this war, okay? Don't worry

about America, its technology.

Don't worry about the economy. Don't

worry about these things, okay? Just

worry Ask yourself one question.

Is Iran transforming its society? Are

the people becoming much more motivated?

Are people in Iran learning from their

mistakes and innovating and becoming

resilient on the battlefield?

Are the Iranians sticking together as a

people? Okay?

Because if the answer is yes to all

three questions, then Iran will win and

America will lose.

Okay? Doesn't make sense.

But,

so, that's just a theory. So, let's um

let's now

>> [clears throat]

>> talk specifically about

America and Iran, okay? So, America

will have three major advantages

in this war.

Okay? These three advantages are are, of

course,

technology,

propaganda,

and money, wealth.

These are the three major strengths of

the American Empire.

All right? Technology is just what you

see every day, right? The satellites

that are able to position, target

these airplanes that are the greatest

war machines in the world.

Okay? So, America is home to the

greatest scientists,

the most advanced weaponry.

Okay, that's just technology.

Propaganda means that America controls

information space. It controls the

internet.

It controls the world's most powerful

media, including the New York Times,

CNN, BBC.

It controls YouTube. It controls Google.

It controls the information landscape.

If America does not want you to know

something, it can hide it from you.

America can control the discourse. It

can control how you think about the

world. That's propaganda.

The last thing is money, okay? And it's

virtually my idea.

United States controls the US dollar,

which is a sort which is the reserve

currency of the world. And the United

States can print as much as much US

dollars as it needs in order to win this

war. It has an infinite money printer.

Okay? And now And then it can use this

money to bribe people to fight this war,

right? It can It can pay for

mercenaries. It can bribe ethnic

minorities to rebel against the

government in Iran. It can bribe Iranian

officials to betray the the government,

okay?

So, looking at these three things, you

would think that America is invincible,

right? But again, we need to think about

the law asymmetry and recognize that

these advantages also disadvantages.

All right? So, let's discuss this.

Technology.

Well, you know, if you have those

advanced weaponry in the world,

you become lazy, arrogant, and dependent

on the technology, right? So, the

classic classic example, of course, is

our school, where you have access to

chat GPT.

Right? And like, you become smarter

because you have access to G- chat GPT?

No, you become dumber because you become

lazy.

Right? Same with technology. You would

think that with the most advanced

weaponry in the world, America would

become invincible, but instead, people

become the American um military becomes

too dependent on the on the technology,

it becomes too arrogant, too complacent.

Okay, so like, well, you know, if we get

If If we get into trouble, then we'll

just send in the Air Force and blow

everything up, okay?

So, it leads to dependency.

And this actually hampers innovation and

resilience in the battlefield.

And this is what you need to win, okay?

You need to be innovative and you need

to be resilient on the battlefield, but

because of the technology,

you become too lazy

to think for yourself.

All right?

So, that's one problem. Propaganda. You

would think that, oh, American American

control the debate, therefore, that's a

huge advantage. It's actually not an

advantage, guys. The reason why is that

in order for innovation and resilience

to happen, you need you need to have

open debate.

Right? You need people to voice

dissenting

opinions.

But if you control the information

landscape, what you can do is censor.

And that's what America's doing right

now. It's telling people to shut up and

obey.

You're not allowed to point out that

this war is stupid and America can't win

this war. Otherwise, you'll be kicked

out, okay?

So, this means that there's really a

lack of rigorous debate within the

American government.

Within the American military, within the

American elite.

Which, of course, will lead to hubris.

It will lead to bad decision-making. No

one's No one will point this out because

they're too they're too afraid of

pissing off the president and his

people, so they'll shut up and America

will keep on making the same mistakes

over and over again, okay?

We call it tricking tricking tricking

your own co-weight, okay?

Okay. They're basically getting high on

on on their own supply is another phrase

that that we use.

All right.

Money and wealth. You think, "Okay,

well, THAT'S THIS IS THIS IS IT, MAN. WE

JUST bribe everyone. We just bribe the

entire world and um

we're good, right?" The problem is this.

The problem is that if you bribe people,

then they're not going to fight for you,

right? Because all they all they want is

your money. So, you bribe them, but

they'll but they'll probably take your

money and run away.

Okay? Or they'll figure out how to get

more money out of you by cheating you.

So, right now, the Americans are going

to fund these

um militias and ethnic minorities and

opposition groups against Iran, okay?

Guess what, guys? These guys are

hustlers.

Right? They're not fighting because

um

they want more freedom, they're fighting

because they want to rip off the US

government.

And so this money issue can be a problem

in the long term because the people

you're bribing, you can't even trust.

And they're not that motivated to

actually win this war for you, they're

actually motivated to to scam you as

much as possible. And they could be

actually a problem in the long term

because you're putting so much resources

into these hustlers, okay?

All right.

So,

what this means

is that

America has three major problems,

okay?

It has three major problems.

The first major problem is

the lack

of political will.

And all this is saying is that the

American people don't want to fight this

war.

The American government doesn't doesn't

even know why they're fighting this war.

No one cares,

okay?

But for the Iranians,

it's a struggle of life and death,

right?

If the America loses this war, they just

go home and forget about it. But if the

Iranians lose this war, they all get

killed or they lose their country, they

lose their society, they lose their

civilization, they lose their identity.

They cannot afford to lose this war,

okay? So, the first major problem that

Americans are facing is they don't have

any political will to fight this war,

but they're still fighting this war

anyway.

Okay? The question then, of course, is

why? Why Why is this happening? This is

actually the most important question,

it's the most complicated, so so so

we'll save this for later, okay?

Second is the idea of logistics

and manufacturing.

So, America is very good at fighting

short wars, okay? The reason why is

they're bad they have the most advanced

weaponry, but they have manufacturing

issues because as we know, America

shipped all its factories to China. So,

America doesn't have that many

factories.

So, yes, it has the most advanced

weaponry in the world, but this weapon

doesn't doesn't do any good if you don't

have any ammunitions, right? You don't

have any ammunitions, bombs, bullets.

And you need factories for that. And

America doesn't really have these

factories. Now, I understand that

America is trying to is trying to

upgrade its manufacturing capacity, but

it's kind of slow. All right? So, maybe

5 years from now it will have

manufacturing capacity capacity to fight

this war, but right now it doesn't.

So, that's that's another

um

major issue, okay? And then and then the

last issue of course is

casualties.

All right. America, because it doesn't

have the political will to fight this

war, cannot afford to lose soldiers on

the battlefield.

All right?

So,

it wants to minimize the death it wants

to minimize battlefield losses because

if like a thousand tens of thousands of

American soldiers are going home to

America dead in coffins, I guarantee you

because of lack of political will, the

American people will revolt. You have

protests, you will have

um a lot of violence in the streets.

It'll be like the Vietnam uh era again.

All right?

Okay. So,

um yes, I understand that America has

technology, propaganda, and money, but

as we discussed, these aren't really

advantages. And these disadvantages are

huge. The lack of political will, the

lack of manufacturing, and the

lack of

of America cannot afford to lose that

many soldiers in the battlefield, okay?

And so this

this situation now determines how

America will fight this war. And we'll

discuss this later on, okay?

All right. Now, let's talk about Iran.

>> [clears throat]

>> Okay.

>> [clears throat]

>> So,

Iran has a lot of disadvantages, okay?

But I want I want I want I want to

discuss right now their three major

advantages that they need to emphasize

if they are to survive this war.

All right? The first is the idea of

faith.

All right? So, remember that the

Iranians are Shia.

And as such, it's a religion of

martyrdom, of eschatology,

of individual sacrifice for the greater

good.

The Shia are not afraid to die.

And because their great religious

leader, the Ayatollah Khamenei,

was assassinated by the Americans and

Israelis, they are motivated

to seek vengeance,

to model themselves for the greater

good, to seek eternal

paradise, okay? Jihad.

All right? That's the first major

advantage. The second major advantage is

terrain.

>> [clears throat]

>> And all this means is that

>> [clears throat]

>> Iran is a mountainous

country.

And it's huge. It's three times the size

of Iraq.

Um so, it's very hard for America to

invade the country.

In fact,

most analysts will will say will tell

you it is suicidal

for the American military to invade

uh Iraq. It is a mountain fortress,

okay? It's a fortress.

And the last issue is the the last

advantage is nationalism.

Okay.

All right.

>> [clears throat]

>> So, the Iranians are Persians.

And the Persians go back 5,000 years. It

is one of the greatest civilizations

in human history. And as we discussed

last semester, in the ancient world

there were three great civilizations,

right? The Jews, the Greeks, and the

Persians.

And um the Persian culture, it's vast,

it's beautiful, and it's deep.

And that's what gives the Iranian people

a lot of pride.

Okay? So,

when they're fighting, they're not just

fighting for their religion, they're not

just fighting for their homes, they're

fighting for the entire civilization

that goes back 5,000 years.

All right? So, these are the

three major advantages

that the Iranians have. Okay? Faith

means that they're not afraid to die

for what they believe in.

Terrain means that the Americans will

have a hard problem invading the

country.

Uh nationalism means that the people all

of the Iran know what they're fighting

for.

All right?

So, but again, remember, everything that

it seems like an advantage can be a

disadvantage as well, all right? So,

>> [clears throat]

>> let's go over what the problems are.

With faith, you might have an issue of

blindness.

Okay? Or idolatry.

Where

you're not afraid to die,

but that means that you're not thinking

strategically. Okay?

Maybe you're going to waste too many

soldiers on the battlefield. They're

brave, but they're kind of stupid as

well.

All right? So, you might have an issue

where Iran is not using the optimal

um strategy because

their [clears throat] soldiers are not

afraid of death. And we're already

seeing that where where the Americans

have already blown up and destroyed the

Iranian navy.

Now, I had already told you that if the

first thing the Americans would do is go

and destroy the Iranian navy. So, you

should probably not use the navy or hide

the navy or blow up the navy yourself,

okay? Because you want to avoid as many

casualties as possible.

But, they didn't do that and they and

the Americans have now destroyed the

Iranian navy.

All right? So, that's issue of faith.

Terrain, yeah, it's a fortress, but it

can also be a prison,

right? Where you're just sort of stuck

there and because it's a mountainous

region, it doesn't have that many

resources. So, Americans can actually

disrupt your water supply, disrupt your

electricity,

okay? And cause general poverty and

hardship for your people.

Okay?

And then, nationalism, yes, Persia is a

great culture, but remember that

Iran is a ethnically diverse country. In

fact, only 50% of the population of Iran

it are Persians.

Others are different minorities, okay?

All right? So,

um you have then ethnic

divisions.

Right?

Okay?

So, looking at this, now we know exactly

what the American strategy will be.

Basically, the strategy will be

to inflict

as many casualties as possible on the

Iranians.

All right, to kill as many people as

possible.

Destroy the infrastructure of Iran of

Iran so that the people don't have

enough water, electricity, food to

survive, okay? Now, the third, of

course, is to create as much ethnic

tension in the country as possible by

arming and encouraging and bribing

ethnic groups to rebel against the

central government in Tehran.

Right?

Okay?

But again,

what the law of symmetry asymmetry tells

us is that the empire ultimately is not

as flexible and open and dynamic as its

enemy.

Okay?

The weaker person is going to engage in

much more self-reflection,

self-debate,

than the empire, okay? Because the

empire will become arrogant. And so

ultimately,

Iran should triumph over America. And in

fact, what's going to happen is that

this strategy that America will use

against the Iranians will lead to the

Iranians becoming much more energetic,

open, and cohesive.

Okay? So, let's look at let's look at

let's look at the American strategy

specifically.

>> [clears throat]

>> All right. So, this is an ethnic map

of Iran. Okay?

Now, certain things that you will see is

how divided the country is. Yeah, the

Persians are in the center, but people

you want to watch are the Kurds.

Okay, the Kurds.

And the um

Azaris.

And the Baluchs.

Okay? These are the three major problem

areas for Iran, and it's always been the

case. Remember the Persians are in the

middle. So, the Baluchs

are, first of all, Sunni Muslims.

As we discussed last class, the Sunnis

and the Shias have never really gotten

along well together. They have different

uh I mean, they're the same religion, uh

Islam, but they have different belief

systems. That's led to a lot of

conflicts in the past. It's almost like

the Catholics and the Protestants, okay?

And so, the Baluchs have been trying to

rebel against Iranians for a long time.

I guarantee you that there already

Israeli and American special forces

embedded in this area, okay? The reason

why is that they want to encourage as

much civil conflict as possible, but

they also want to prepare the ground for

the possibility for a ground invasion of

America.

Okay?

So, they would need a

um

>> [clears throat]

>> forward operating base.

And this area could be a very good place

for a beginning of a land in of of a

land invasion. Then you over here, you

have the Kurds.

Okay? The Kurds are another minority

that seeks national sovereignty.

And

right now, what's happening is that the

Americans and Israelis are bombing this

area heavily, and they're targeting

police stations. Why? Because they're

trying to reduce and eliminate

opposition so that they can arm the

Kurds and have them come into this area

and and threaten

Iran. What's also happening is that in

Iraq

there are these Sunni

uh

groups, okay, that the Americans are

uh basically bribing

and arming, and they're basically

fanatics, okay? They're ISIS.

And what the Americans want to do is

send them into uh Iran to cause as much

problems as possible.

Okay? Then you over here you have

Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan,

it is a independent country. What's

really odd is that the majority of

ethnic

uh Azaris are actually in Iran. 60% 6%

are in the country, 40% are in the

country of Azerbaijan, which means that

from the perspective of the Azerbaijani

people,

this

war could be an opportunity to reunite

the people. Okay? And create a greater

Azerbaijan.

So these are the three problem areas

that you have to watch as this war

develops over the next few weeks, over

the next few months. Okay?

So we already know what the American

strategy will be because we've seen it

in Libya, in Syria before. Okay, so what

is the strategy?

All right.

So again, the strategy is to both attack

without, okay, from outside and inside

as well.

So what you're going to do is this.

You're going to arm these people, in

embed special forces into these

insurgent groups to lead them and

provide air cover so they have a clear

path into Iran and are able to limit

opposition, okay?

All right?

So now you're attacking from without.

With tactical move in means to cause as

much pain and suffering in the interior

of Iran as possible.

All right? And how you do that? Well,

you do that through

decapitation. Okay, let's go over the

strategies.

Okay, decap- decapitation.

Okay?

And what you're doing is you're removing

the elite.

Okay, or what we call

command and control.

Okay? You're basically eliminating the

capacity of Iran to govern itself, to

have a leadership, to have an elite.

All right, command and control. Okay, so

that's the first strategy.

Second strategy

is

um

um aerial bombardment, okay? Air

supremacy.

>> [clears throat]

>> So again, America has the most advanced

airplanes in the world. And the way that

it's using its airplanes is to destroy

as much military installations as

possible, but it's also engaging in acts

of sabotage, okay?

So what they're doing is they're carpet

bombing.

Okay, so they're carpet bombing Tehran,

okay?

Um they're doing soft targeting.

Soft targeting. Soft targeting means

that instead of attacking military

installations, you attack hospitals.

Why? Because you're degrading the

capacities I'm sorry, you're degrading

the state's capacity to rejuvenate

itself, to be resilient, okay?

The last thing is something called

double tap.

Double tap is this, okay?

And it's really illegal or against

international law. What you do is this.

You attack a place, right? You kill some

people,

and then people try to come and help the

people who are injured. And they could

be like

doctors, it could be emergency emergency

personnel, it could be relatives, right?

And then you strike again to create as

much as many civilian casualties as

possible.

Right? And the entire idea is to create

as much fear

and anxiety in people as possible so

that they lose the capacity to resist.

Right? And [snorts] the last thing you

do

>> [clears throat]

>> and so the and the last thing of course

is to

um

arm

and bribe [clears throat]

insurgents.

Okay? So these are the three main

pillars

of the American strategy. And you're

going to see this over the next few

weeks.

The problem [clears throat]

with this

is that when you do these three things,

you're not actually hurting the

Iranians, you're actually helping them.

Because remember the law of asymmetry

states that whichever group is able to

to create energy, openness, and cohesion

will win. And guess what guys?

This American strategy is going to

create a more energetic, more open, and

more cohesive

Persian society.

All right? Let me show you how. All

right, decapitation.

We just said that one major problem for

America is elite overproduction, right?

Well, with decapitation

what you're doing is

you're solving this problem for the

Iranians.

Right? Before the huge problem for the

Iranians were, you have too many leaders

and they all have their own stupid

opinion and they all want to lead this

war, right?

But by killing so many leaders,

you allow

for more mobility, for more for more

meritocracy, right? You're solving a

problem of elite overproduction for the

Iranians. That's a huge huge bonus,

guys, okay?

So,

um the leadership will become much more

lean, much more mean, much more

determined,

and much more strategic.

Okay?

That's number one. Number two, air

supremacy.

Well, when you do this to people, when

you carpet bomb Tehran, you're creating

a more cohesive society.

Why?

Because the major conflict in Iran for

many decades was the conflict between

the urban areas and the rural areas. The

rural areas were very religious, very

poor, very backward. And the urban areas

were educated, secular, and progressive.

Okay? And so this is huge conflict that

led to a lot of riots, a lot of protests

in

uh Iran. But when you carpet bomb the

cities, which are the main source of of

of support for, you know, progressive

Western policies, you make them united

with the rural areas, okay? Does that

make sense?

The Iranian people no longer see

themselves each other as enemies, they

see the Americans as really as enemies.

You create a much more cohesive society,

which are who are willing to

fight together, and that's a problem,

okay?

All right.

The last thing. You Yes, you are arming

the insurgents, the Balochs, the Kurds,

the Zaris.

Okay, that's fine. The problem with this

is that you are now

activating, GALVANIZING PERSIAN

NATIONALISM.

RIGHT?

FOR THE LONGEST TIME, the Persian

national identity was suppressed by the

theocracy. Because they want to create a

more, you know, they want to create a

grand religion that unites all

ethnicities.

When you turn the other minorities

against the Iranians, then the Persian

people have to come together and

remember their history, celebrate their

identity.

And this is the key, okay?

Once the Persian people are able to

activate their long-lost memories, go

back in the past and remember their

greatness,

they come together as an energetic,

open, and cohesive society.

Okay?

So, yes, the Americans have this

strategy that worked in Libya, in Syria,

and other places, but it's not going to

work in Iran. In fact, it's going to do

the opposite

in

Iran.

Okay? And then you're like, "Well,

why don't the Americans not do this?"

And I already told you, because it's an

empire, okay? It doesn't care about

Iran, it cares about itself. And so,

it's sort of stuck with this policy

because, remember, it's trying to win

this war as quickly as possible because

it doesn't have the manufacturing

capacity to fight this war for a long

time.

It's trying to reduce as many civil

casu- Sorry, it's trying to reduce as

many casualties among its soldiers as

possible because the Americans don't

have the political will to fight this

war. America's trying to win this war

cheaply and fast. And if it doesn't, the

Americans are in a lot of trouble.

Okay? Does that make sense, guys?

All right.

Let me now

um conclude

or sorry, let let let me now discuss

the Iranian strategy, okay? So, um what

the Americans are using is a classic

strategy called siege warfare.

Okay?

And so, what the Iranians are going to

do is they're going to respond with a

classic strategy called guerrilla

warfare.

Okay, and guerrilla warfare, guys, it's

just as simple as hide-and-seek.

All right? So, you can bomb me with all

everything you have, I'll just hide in

my mountains. And then when you leave,

what what I'm going to do I'm going to

attack your uh GCC countries. I'm going

to lob drones, rockets at you. I'm going

to lob

um rockets at Israel, okay? I I I don't

have

I don't have to strike that hard. I just

have to make I just have to be a pain in

the ass, okay? Because then what happens

is you're forced to come back and bomb

the living hell out of me, but guess

what? I'll just hide in my mountains

again. I'll just hide-and-seek, okay?

So, Iran can do this for years and years

and years. But again, remember America

is forced to win this war as fast as

possible because there is no political

will,

they don't have manufacturing

manufacturing capacity,

and they uh don't want to uh they don't

want that many casualties and economic

damage, okay?

Does that make sense, guys?

All right? So, that's all Iran is going

to do. Iran is just going to be a pain

in the ass, okay? A pain in the ass.

It's trying to create as much economic

damage as possible. It's trying to

create as much fear as possible.

All right? Which will force America to

attack. The grand question is this,

will America launch a ground invasion?

Okay? Because if it does,

then

um

they've lost the war, okay?

All right? Because look look at look at

Iran, okay? Mountains and mountains,

deserts.

It is impossible to occupy

this country.

All right? It's impossible to invade.

And what the Iranians want to do is be

so such a pain in the ass to commit so

much guerrilla warfare that America is

forced to invade, okay, from over here

and from over here and from over here

and from over here. And then eventually

uh but the problem is that America

doesn't have doesn't have the resources,

the political will, the manufacturing

capacity to fight this war, okay?

Does that make sense?

All right.

So now you're like, "Okay,

I understand all this.

But why the hell is this war happening

then?"

Like if I can tell you this, okay? I'm

sure that their generals can tell them

this as well. I'm sure that they know

that this was the case. In fact, for

years

America has been planning to invade Iran

and for years the generals were like,

"No, that's suicidal. Let's not do this,

okay?"

So why is this happening?

And unfortunately, we don't know because

the administration is not telling us. At

first Trump is like, "Oh, because the

nuclear talks didn't go well." But we

know for a fact that the Iranians were

willing to agree to all terms

of the Americans.

And then Marco Rubio, who's who's who's

who's the Secretary of State,

he came out yesterday and he he said

something really moronic. He said that,

"Why did we attack Iran? Because we

heard the Israelis were going to attack

first. And then the Iranians were going

to respond by by attacking both the

Israelis and us, the Americans. And

therefore we have to preempt the

Israelis by attacking first."

That is okay?

All right. So they don't they they don't

know why they're doing this. But there

has to be a reason, right?

Okay. What clue is this? The clue is

this.

The soldiers are being asked The

American soldiers are being asked to

fight this war. And again, no one knows

why used while was happening?

But there's reporting that the generals

are telling the soldiers

this is a war

for

Jesus.

This is a war

to

create the second coming of Jesus, okay?

This is um John W. Larson

and he's writing this on on Substack,

okay? US troops were told Iran war is

for Armageddon, the return of Jesus.

What is this? All right. So, um so

sorry. So,

um

some soldiers who are not Christians

were told that this is a war for Jesus

and like, wait a minute, we're not we're

not Christians, we're Muslims or we're

atheists. So, why are we fighting this

war?

And so they filed a complaint about the

speech, okay?

And we're going to read a part of this

email that the soldiers who are

dissenting sent to some other people to

complain about this, okay? So, um I

could could could you read, please? Yes,

sir.

I am a NCO rank withheld in our unit.

This morning our commander opened up the

combat readiness status briefing by

urging us to not be afraid as to what is

happening with our combat operations in

Iran right now.

>> Stop. Okay, afraid.

This word tells us they're losing the

war.

Okay? Right? Keep on going.

He urged us to tell our troops that this

was all part of God's divine plan and he

specifically referenced

>> in here. Wait a minute.

God's divine plan?

God's not

the one ordering them to fight this war.

It's Trump or or the American military,

okay? This is kind of weird. Keep on

going.

And he specifically referenced numerous

citations out of the book of Revelation

referring to Armageddon and the imminent

return of Jesus Christ. He said that

President Trump has been anointed by

Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran

to cause Armageddon, and mark his return

to Earth. Oh my god. President Trump,

the fire in Iran, it's all a part of a

grand plan

to destroy the world so that Jesus will

return. What is this crap? Okay, keep me

going.

He had a big grin on his on his face

when

>> Okay, he's happy about this, guys. THE

WORLD IS ENDING. YEAH! [screaming]

KEEP ME GOING.

WHEN HE said all of this, which made his

message seem even more crazy. Our

commander would probably be as a

Christian first supporter. He's been

this way for a very long time and makes

it clear that he desires all of us under

him to become just like him as a

Christian.

But what he did this morning was so

toxic and over the line that it shocked

many of us in attendance at the

absurdness briefing briefing.

Beside Besides myself, I am reaching out

to MRFF on behalf of 15 fellow troops. I

know you asked me about the religious

views of our group who has requested

help from the MRFF. I can only tell you

that I am Christian and at least 10 of

the others are also Christians.

One of the others is Jewish and one is

one is Muslim. I don't know the

religious or non-religious status for

the other three at this time. Okay, so

what is happening is that there's some

crazy Christians in American military,

American government,

okay,

that want to use this war

to end the world,

to force Jesus to return.

That is why this war is happening.

Okay, I'm not saying I'm not saying that

this is the reason why, but I'm saying

like

this is a possibility, okay? All right,

this is Trump and these are all

religious leaders that support Trump

because they see him as Messiah.

They They see him as this as this great

hero who will cause the triumph of

Christianity and the return of Jesus.

[music] And that's a possibility as to

why this war is being fought, okay?

Because quite honestly, there's no other

reason. It's hard for me to come up with

another reason, okay?

All right.

So, this is something that we will look

at as we go along. What is this crap?

What is Christian Zionism?

Why would they think that this war in

the Middle East will cause the return of

Jesus, okay? Well, we'll discuss this

later on.

But I wanted to But now it leads us to

another problem, which is our entire

class is on game theory, right? Guys,

this is kind of weird because

>> [snorts]

>> what this suggests is that religion

>> [applause]

>> is more important.

Okay?

So,

what's the point of game theory if

people don't play by game theory?

It's all if it's just religious

fanatics.

All right? And the answer is this. And

the answer is

it's still game theory.

But the problem is that

what you think

uh the game that you think they're

playing is not the game they're playing.

The reward that you think they want want

is not the reward they that they want,

okay? We think in terms of material

things,

okay? So, money, resources,

power.

We think that the war

is being fought

over these things,

and it's not.

All right? The grand secret, the grand

reveal of the semester, of this course,

is this.

The real power, the real currency

in the world is not money.

It is human consciousness.

OR BASICALLY ATTENTION.

OKAY? THIS IS THIS IS IT, GUYS. OKAY?

Once you understand this idea, you

understand everything.

But this is a hard idea to understand,

so I

I'll need some time to actually explain

this. All right?

This war is being

fought to control

the consciousness of the human race.

Because it is our consciousness that

creates reality itself. That's the

source of all wealth and all power in

this world.

Okay? That's why this is happening. In

other words,

this is a war, not just for Iran. This

is a war, not just for the Middle East.

It is a war for the soul of humanity.

This is what's happening, guys.

All right? This is what World War III

is. World War is meant to be the last

and final war of all human history.

Because whoever win this war will

control the very soul of human existence

for all of eternity. Okay? That is the

end game.

And I know this is a hard idea to

understand, but as we go along, I will

explain this to you.

Okay, that is the grand secret behind

the world. Everything that you believe,

everything that you see today, it's all

an illusion.

The reality, the truth

is that

consciousness is the source of all power

of reality itself. And so, this is a war

for

human consciousness. It's a war for the

very soul of humanity.

Okay?

Any questions?

All right. I'll I will see you guys next

week.