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Most people see this and think culture.
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They see a charming eco-friendly
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tradition.
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But look closer. This isn't just people
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liking to pedal. What you were watching
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is a highfrequency, low friction
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economic machine. Ultimately, private
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car ownership is going to become
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obsolete. Cities are building for
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pedestrians. They're building for
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cycling. They're building for
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livability, not for cars.
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The bike economy, the multi-billion
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dollar system of Amsterdam.
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In Amsterdam, the bicycle isn't a toy.
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It is a critical urban infrastructure.
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If this system failed today, the city's
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economy would collapse tomorrow.
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For decades, the world has viewed
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Amsterdam through a romantic lens. But
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cities don't run on vibes. They run on
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systems. And when a system moves
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hundreds of thousands of people every
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single day, it stops being a choice and
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starts demanding three things: space,
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rules, and capital.
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Research shows that the cycling system
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contributes benefits equivalent to
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roughly 3% of the Netherlands GDP. This
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isn't just green energy. It's hard cash
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saved in public health, reduced
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absenteeism at work, and most
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importantly, unlocked productivity.
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Every person on a bike is a person who
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isn't taking up 12 square m of public
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space with a car. That freed up space
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allows for high value real estate,
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commerce, and tourism. In economics, we
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call this optimization of land use.
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But success created a crisis. By the
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2010s, Amsterdam had a clutter problem.
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Thousands of bikes were choking the
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streets. The solution? One of the most
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expensive and daring engineering
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projects in the city. They built a
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cathedral for 7,000 bicycles
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under the water.
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It cost millions. From a traditional
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linear perspective, spending that much
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on free parking seems insane. But from a
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circular economy perspective, a model
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where Amsterdam is a global leader with
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30.6% circularity rate, it was a
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mandatory investment. As we see in the
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latest urban governance reports,
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planning isn't an option here. It's the
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only way to exist.
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In this documentary, we are going beyond
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the postcard. We will travel back to
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1965 to see why the first sharing
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economy experiment failed. We will use
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scientific GPS data to track the shadow
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economy of the 80,000 bikes stolen every
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year. And we will explore how Amsterdam
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is using the bicycle to become the
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world's first 100% circular city by
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2050. This is the story of how a humble
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machine with two wheels became the
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backbone of a multi-billion dollar urban
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miracle.
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To understand why Amsterdam spends €85
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million on underwater parking today, we
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have to go back to a time when the city
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almost lost its soul to the car, the
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1960s.
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As postwar prosperity grew, Amsterdam
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was being choked by motor vehicles.
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In response, a counterculture group
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called the Provos launched what would
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become the first bike sharing program in
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history, the Vita Fieten Plan, or the
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White Bike Plan.
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Their proposal was radical and purely
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idealistic.
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paints 20,000 bicycles white, leave them
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unlocked across the city, and let anyone
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use them for free. No keys, no coins, no
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owners. They viewed mobility as a public
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good, as essential and free as the air
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we breathe. On paper, it was a circular
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economy. Avant laletra. In practice, it
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was a disaster. Within days, the system
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collapsed. Why? Because the provos
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ignored a fundamental principle of
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economics, the tragedy of the commons.
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for
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without ownership or registration.
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Public property quickly became nobody's
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property. In an unregulated system with
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zero entry cost, the incentive to
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maintain the asset disappears. Without
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locks or registration, public property
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quickly became nobody's property. The
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police confiscated the bikes because
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they invited theft and the citizens
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driven by individual rationalism either
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took them home or threw them into the
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canals.
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The lesson was harsh. You cannot have a
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massive urban transit system based
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solely on romanticism.
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You need governance.
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However, the white bikes planted a seed.
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It shifted the economic debate. The city
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realized that if they didn't want to
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spend billions on highways like Los
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Angeles or London, they had to invest in
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a different kind of capital. Transition
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requires not just technology, but a
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change in urban metabolism.
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The failure of the white bikes taught
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Amsterdam that the bicycle had to be
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integrated into the formal economy of
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the city, not as a rebel symbol, but as
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a regulated, taxed, and planned asset.
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Today, the free spirit of the white
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bikes only survives in one place, the
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Hoga Veluve National Park. But in the
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city, the white bike has been replaced
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by a sophisticated capital incentive
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model. We no longer trust in the
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goodness of the user. We trust in
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incentives. We move the tragedy of the
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commons to a system of managed common
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pool resources. In economics, success
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can be as disruptive as failure. By the
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late 2010s, Amsterdam was a victim of
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its own efficiency. With nearly 1
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million bicycles in the city, the urban
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surface had reached a breaking point.
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Every bridge, railing, and sidewalk was
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occupied by idle metal.
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This wasn't just an aesthetic grievance.
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It was an economic bottleneck. Thousands
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of parked bikes were clogging the city's
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arteries, slowing down 200,000 daily
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commuters at Central Station. In one of
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the world's most expensive real estate
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markets, free surface parking is a
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luxury that a functional city cannot
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afford. The opportunity cost of that
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space was becoming too high. To solve
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this, Amsterdam launched the entre, a
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massive urban reconfiguration project.
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The crown jewel, the open haven
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underwater parking. Consider that
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figure. Spending €60 million just to
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store 7,000 bicycles underwater.
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To a traditional accountant, this looks
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like a massive sunk cost. But to an
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urban economist, it's a master stroke of
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asset management. By moving 7,000 bikes
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beneath the water, the city performed
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open heart surgery on its central hub.
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They reclaimed the surface, restoring
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the landscape to its 1900's aesthetic.
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This isn't just about beauty. It's about
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maximizing pedestrian flow. A station
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that breathes and flows is a station
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that generates higher economic value for
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the surrounding businesses. However, an
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85 million euro asset must be managed
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like a high performance logistics
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center. You cannot allow zombie bikes to
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occupy these slots indefinitely.
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This is where the incentive structure
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comes into play. The primary goal isn't
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profit, it's turnover. By offering the
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first 24 hours for free, the city
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subsidizes the daily workforce. But by
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charging a daily fee thereafter, they
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penalize long-term storage and
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abandonment. Using advanced optical
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sensors, the city monitors idle infantry
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in real time, ensuring that these 7,000
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slots remain a liquid asset for those
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who keep the economy moving.
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Finally, we must consider the cost of
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friction.
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Transport,
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the last
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In transport economics, every second
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lost in a transfer is a loss in human
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capital and productivity.
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This underwater facility connects
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directly to the metro and train
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platforms. A commuter can transition
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from their bicycle to their train seat
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in less than 2 minutes, shielded from
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the elements. This level of intermodel
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synergy is exactly what makes
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Amsterdam's circular economy, currently
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at a record 30.6%
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circularity rate, a functional reality
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rather than just a policy goal.
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But this transition to a highly
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regulated system created its own set of
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problems. Because when you turn a
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bicycle into a valuable economic asset,
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you create something else. A black
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market. In Amsterdam, data doesn't tell
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the whole story. While police record
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11,000 thefts a year, the reality is
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closer to 80,000.
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Most citizens don't report it. Cost of
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time is higher than the bike's value.
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This creates a massive shadow market
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operating entirely outside the official
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GDP. Forget the myth of international
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bike smuggling rings.
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A 2023 study tracking 100 bikes proved
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that stolen assets rarely leave the
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city. Instead, they feed a shadow
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circular economy. Your stolen bike is
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sold to a street dealer and then bought
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by your neighbor. It's a localized,
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untaxed, and illegal closed loop.
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High theft risk creates a market
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distortion. If you expect your bike to
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be stolen within months, you don't buy
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quality, you buy junk. This beta bike
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equilibrium keeps the city's transport
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fleet low quality and forces owners to
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spend more on locks than the bikes
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themselves.
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These aren't victimless crimes. They are
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negative externalities that drain city
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resources. Amsterdam's answer, the Fiat
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depot. Since the city couldn't stop the
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theft, it decided to manage the orphaned
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assets. Because in a circular city, even
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a stolen bike is a resource that must be
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managed to maintain the urban
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metabolism.
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In a city with more bicycles than
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people, orphaned assets are an
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inevitability.
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Every year, thousands of bikes are
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simply left behind. In economic terms,
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this is dead capital. They occupy
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valuable public space, provide zero
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utility, and degrade the urban
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landscape.
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According to official Amsterdam
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regulations, the city must intervene
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when private property interferes with
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public efficiency.
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Whether is an improperly parked bike
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blocking an emergency exit or a wreck
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that is no longer functional, the
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municipality acts as the ultimate
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enforcer of spatial order.
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All seized bicycles are transported to a
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central facility, the FID depot. This is
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a logistical powerhouse that manages the
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city's lost capital. This isn't just a
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pound. It's a sorting facility for the
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city's metal metabolism, the retrieval.
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Owners have around 6 weeks to claim
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their bike for a fee, approximately €25.
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This fee doesn't cover the full
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operational cost, but it serves as a
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user pays tax to discourage abandonment.
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If your bicycle was removed from a city
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parking facility, you will also pay
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€33.75
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parking cost. The sorting only about 25%
278
00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:26,399
of bikes are ever reclaimed. The rest
279
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they are classified as waste or asset.
280
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Here is where the circular economy
281
00:15:28,399 --> 00:15:35,920
strategy 2020 to 2025 becomes tangible.
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Amsterdam aims to reduce the use of new
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raw materials by 50% by 2030.
284
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The Fiat's depot doesn't just scrap
285
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everything.
286
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Refurbishment. Bikes in decent condition
287
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are sold to social enterprises or
288
00:15:49,279 --> 00:15:54,800
secondhand shops. They are recirculated
289
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into the economy at a low price point,
290
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providing affordable mobility for
291
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lowincome residents.
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Education.
293
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Many are used in vocational training
294
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programs, turning junk, into a teaching
295
00:16:06,079 --> 00:16:11,680
tool for future mechanics. Raw
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materials, the unsalvageable ones, are
297
00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:17,839
sold as highquality scrap metal, feeding
298
00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:19,759
back into the industrial cycle.
299
00:16:17,839 --> 00:16:23,199
What we see here is a complete life
300
00:16:19,759 --> 00:16:24,959
cycle management of a transport mode.
301
00:16:23,199 --> 00:16:26,959
The biggest challenge for circular
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00:16:24,959 --> 00:16:29,680
cities is the lack of effective
303
00:16:26,959 --> 00:16:31,839
governance mechanisms. Amsterdam
304
00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:34,399
succeeds because it treats the bicycle
305
00:16:31,839 --> 00:16:36,720
as a public utility. From the
306
00:16:34,399 --> 00:16:39,279
multi-million euro investment under the
307
00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:41,120
water to the scrap metal in the harbor,
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the city manages the entire
309
00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:45,880
cradletograve cycle of the bicycle.
310
00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:52,320
Amsterdam is no longer just building
311
00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:55,839
bike lanes. It is building a new
312
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economic DNA. The city has set a target
313
00:16:55,839 --> 00:17:04,519
that many economists call impossible to
314
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be 100% circular by 2050.
315
00:17:05,439 --> 00:17:10,959
This means that by midentury, every gram
316
00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:13,520
of steel in a bicycle and every stone in
317
00:17:10,959 --> 00:17:14,880
a bridge must stay within the economic
318
00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:17,679
loop.
319
00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:20,880
The take, make, waste model will be
320
00:17:17,679 --> 00:17:23,679
extinct. For Amsterdam, the bicycle is
321
00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:26,640
the alpha product, the test case for how
322
00:17:23,679 --> 00:17:29,919
a city can move, consume, and recycle
323
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:33,120
without depleting the planet's capital.
324
00:17:29,919 --> 00:17:35,360
To reach 100% circularity, the concept
325
00:17:33,120 --> 00:17:38,640
of private ownership is being challenged
326
00:17:35,360 --> 00:17:41,360
by a more efficient model, product as a
327
00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:43,360
service. You don't buy the bike, you
328
00:17:41,360 --> 00:17:45,280
rent the mobility.
329
00:17:43,360 --> 00:17:46,880
So we talk a lot about ownership as a
330
00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:49,919
service, but it's this idea of, you
331
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:52,240
know, something as a service. So in our
332
00:17:49,919 --> 00:17:54,240
case, bike as a service, it's all of the
333
00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:55,919
benefits of ownership, but none of the
334
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:57,919
drawbacks. So none of having to deal
335
00:17:55,919 --> 00:17:59,520
with the maintenance or or any of the
336
00:17:57,919 --> 00:18:00,559
things that come with actually owning
337
00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:02,799
something.
338
00:18:00,559 --> 00:18:05,760
>> Economically, this aligns the incentives
339
00:18:02,799 --> 00:18:08,559
of the producer and the consumer. If the
340
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:11,280
bike breaks, it's the company's problem,
341
00:18:08,559 --> 00:18:13,039
not yours. by centralizing all of that
342
00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,559
maintenance. Obviously, we cut cost
343
00:18:13,039 --> 00:18:16,720
significantly. We cut waste
344
00:18:14,559 --> 00:18:19,280
significantly. Um, but for the
345
00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:20,799
individual user, um, they have nothing
346
00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:22,080
to worry about. You know, as a
347
00:18:20,799 --> 00:18:23,520
subscriber, you get all of your
348
00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:25,280
maintenance. So, we come and do
349
00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:27,440
preventative maintenance. So, first of
350
00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:29,360
all, that obviously reduced the cost um
351
00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:31,600
overall, not so much to the end user,
352
00:18:29,360 --> 00:18:33,039
but the cost of the business. Um, that
353
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:35,760
prevents breakdowns and things like
354
00:18:33,039 --> 00:18:39,039
that. But in the end, if you think about
355
00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:40,400
um the cost of time, the cost of effort,
356
00:18:39,039 --> 00:18:42,160
um maybe you don't even know how to
357
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:43,760
maintain your own bike, um having a
358
00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:45,919
service that does all of that for you is
359
00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:48,559
just a a matter of convenience.
360
00:18:45,919 --> 00:18:51,520
>> This forces manufacturers to design for
361
00:18:48,559 --> 00:18:54,480
durability and modularity, the core
362
00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:56,799
pillars of this circular economy. When
363
00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:58,799
the city manages the flow and private
364
00:18:56,799 --> 00:19:01,760
companies manage the maintenance, the
365
00:18:58,799 --> 00:19:03,760
shadow economy of theft we saw in act
366
00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:05,679
three begins to shrink.
367
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:07,200
>> So if you subscribe to a bike from
368
00:19:05,679 --> 00:19:08,880
Clover and your bike gets stolen, first
369
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:10,880
of all, we actually probably will notice
370
00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:13,280
that it got stolen maybe even before you
371
00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:15,520
did because we have GPS on all the
372
00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:17,760
bikes. Um, but if it does get stolen,
373
00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:19,200
you use our WhatsApp chat. You basically
374
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:21,840
send us a message and we come and bring
375
00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:24,320
you a new bike immediately. Why steal a
376
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:26,880
bike that is tracked, branded, and has
377
00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:29,280
no resale value in a subscription-based
378
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:31,039
market?
379
00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:33,600
So, what is the final return on
380
00:19:31,039 --> 00:19:37,280
investment? Let's look at the triple
381
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:39,760
bottom line. Public health. By avoiding
382
00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:42,400
11,000 deaths annually through active
383
00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:46,000
transport, the Dutch economy saves 19
384
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:49,200
billion in health care costs.
385
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:51,840
urban density. By utilizing underwater
386
00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:54,160
parking and vertical depots, Amsterdam
387
00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:56,480
maintains a population density that
388
00:19:54,160 --> 00:20:00,240
would be impossible with cars, keeping
389
00:19:56,480 --> 00:20:02,880
real estate productivity at peak levels.
390
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:05,440
Resource independence by reclaiming
391
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:08,160
metal from the Fiat's depot. The city
392
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:10,880
insulates itself from global commodity
393
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:14,000
price shocks. This is a sustainable
394
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:16,240
urban metabolism. The city isn't just a
395
00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:18,799
place where people live. It's a living
396
00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:21,200
organism that processes resources with
397
00:20:18,799 --> 00:20:23,440
maximum efficiency.
398
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:25,840
Amsterdam's success has sent a clear
399
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:28,080
message to the rest of the continent.
400
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:30,960
Spatial efficiency is the only way
401
00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:33,360
forward for the modern metropolis.
402
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:35,360
Across Europe, the bicycle has moved
403
00:20:33,360 --> 00:20:37,520
from being a leisure tool to a
404
00:20:35,360 --> 00:20:39,760
cornerstone of urban recovery and
405
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:42,400
economic resilience.
406
00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:45,440
In Paris, a city once defined by its
407
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:48,080
congestion, the plano is investing
408
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:51,520
hundreds of millions to become 100%
409
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:53,840
cyclable. In Barcelona, the super blocks
410
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:58,159
are reclaiming entire intersections from
411
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:59,840
cars to create humanentric lungs.
412
00:20:58,159 --> 00:21:03,440
These aren't just environmental
413
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:05,840
projects, they are market corrections.
414
00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:08,320
The cities are betting that a quieter,
415
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:10,720
cleaner, and more agile urban center
416
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:13,600
will attract more talent, more tourism,
417
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:16,240
and higher property values.
418
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:18,720
From the cycle superighways of London to
419
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:21,760
the industrial hubs of Germany, the
420
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:25,120
economic logic is consistent. Replacing
421
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:27,520
a 1 and 1/2 ton vehicle with a 15 kg
422
00:21:25,120 --> 00:21:29,440
machine reduces the cost of maintenance
423
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:32,320
for the city and increases the
424
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:34,480
productivity of the citizen.
425
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:36,720
But while northern capitals have the
426
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:39,520
advantage of decades of infrastructure,
427
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:41,520
the real test is happening in the south.
428
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:43,760
In the Mediterranean, where the street
429
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:46,080
is a social space and the sun is a
430
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:48,720
constant resource, a new leader is
431
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:51,200
emerging. A city that has used the
432
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:55,080
Amsterdam blueprint to transform itself
433
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:55,080
at record speed.
434
00:22:07,039 --> 00:22:10,039
forgo.
435
00:22:58,159 --> 00:23:04,280
If Amsterdam is the blueprint, Valencia
436
00:23:00,799 --> 00:23:04,280
is the laboratory.
437
00:23:05,360 --> 00:23:08,360
Okay.
438
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:20,600
Not the fact
439
00:23:47,919 --> 00:23:52,159
In less than a decade, this
440
00:23:49,679 --> 00:23:54,559
Mediterranean city has transitioned from
441
00:23:52,159 --> 00:23:58,760
a car ccentric capital to a global
442
00:23:54,559 --> 00:23:58,760
reference in urban metabolism.
443
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:26,000
Valencia's transformation wasn't a
444
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:28,080
matter of vibes or romanticism. It was a
445
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,679
calculated investment in spatial
446
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:31,919
efficiency.
447
00:24:29,679 --> 00:24:33,520
>> I think attracting top global talent
448
00:24:31,919 --> 00:24:35,360
means that you need to have a vibrant,
449
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:37,360
livable city. And I think most young
450
00:24:35,360 --> 00:24:39,520
people um particularly who are coming
451
00:24:37,360 --> 00:24:41,600
into the workforce now are looking for
452
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:44,080
ways to get around a city that doesn't
453
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:46,720
rely on public transit. They don't want
454
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:48,640
to own a car um because car ownership is
455
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,880
a total burden. Having to find parking,
456
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:52,400
insurance, cost of the car, all of that.
457
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:54,640
So having this accessible
458
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:56,559
infrastructure, cycling infrastructure
459
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:58,480
specifically, and in a city like
460
00:24:56,559 --> 00:25:00,480
Valencia that, you know, already has a
461
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:02,880
lot of reasons to attract top talent,
462
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:04,720
just makes it that much better. Um,
463
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:06,400
cycling is a preferred way to get around
464
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,400
in Valencia, we're number seven in the
465
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:10,400
world for cycling to work, for example.
466
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:12,640
So adding a layer of an easy
467
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:14,880
subscription ebike service to that just
468
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:16,799
again attracts even more um top talent
469
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:19,840
to the city.
470
00:25:16,799 --> 00:25:21,919
By implementing the Anilo Crista, the
471
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:24,720
city has reclaimed high value public
472
00:25:21,919 --> 00:25:27,039
space to boost local commerce and reduce
473
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:29,200
the toxic liability of the car.
474
00:25:27,039 --> 00:25:30,960
>> It's important to remember that um often
475
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:32,720
times with cars, although they can fit
476
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,640
multiple people, most of the time it's
477
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:36,400
one person per one car. So when we're
478
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:38,320
asking about, you know, 10 bikes versus
479
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:40,559
one car, we're essentially saying 10
480
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:42,320
people versus one person. So we have a
481
00:25:40,559 --> 00:25:43,840
10x multiplier on essentially everything
482
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,200
that's happening on that street. Whether
483
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:47,039
that be visits to businesses, whether
484
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,480
that be transactions and purchases,
485
00:25:47,039 --> 00:25:50,400
everything gets that 10x multiplier and
486
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:52,880
increases revenue for the whole street.
487
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:55,200
>> In economics, this is the optimization
488
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:57,440
of land use. The same principle that
489
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:58,320
drove Amsterdam to build under its
490
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,080
canals.
491
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:02,880
>> If I'm cycling and I pass by, for
492
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:04,240
example, a bakery, I go I smell that
493
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:05,520
bakery and I go, "Oh, you know what?
494
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,279
Maybe I'm going to stop in, try
495
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,799
something, one of those products." Um,
496
00:26:07,279 --> 00:26:10,080
you know, essentially become a patron of
497
00:26:08,799 --> 00:26:11,600
that business. Whereas if I'm passing by
498
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:14,159
in a car, there's no chance of that
499
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,840
happening. And the other benefit is um
500
00:26:14,159 --> 00:26:17,679
car parking also has this sort of
501
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:19,440
psychological effect on the streets and
502
00:26:17,679 --> 00:26:21,039
the people that live there. Car parking
503
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:23,120
makes the space feel a lot more closed
504
00:26:21,039 --> 00:26:24,559
in and a lot more cramped than bike
505
00:26:23,120 --> 00:26:25,760
parking, which keeps the space very nice
506
00:26:24,559 --> 00:26:27,760
and open.
507
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:30,559
>> Emerging businesses are shifting the
508
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:32,799
market from ownership to usership.
509
00:26:30,559 --> 00:26:34,400
>> You know, our customers, they depend on
510
00:26:32,799 --> 00:26:36,880
their bikes as a reliable way to get
511
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:39,279
around. And so we use an ownership as a
512
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:41,600
service model. So instead of owning the
513
00:26:39,279 --> 00:26:43,440
asset yourself, um you subscribe to it
514
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:45,120
from us. And we think that's what
515
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:46,960
customers need in terms of reliable
516
00:26:45,120 --> 00:26:49,600
day-to-day transportation. If you look
517
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:52,240
at something like Lime or Valon BC, they
518
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:54,640
will have that idle asset problem. Um
519
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:56,480
and certainly ownership obviously the
520
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:58,880
same thing. But with us, you know,
521
00:26:56,480 --> 00:27:00,799
handling maintenance, battery swapping,
522
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:03,039
theft protection, insurance, all of
523
00:27:00,799 --> 00:27:04,880
that. Um and yet still having access to
524
00:27:03,039 --> 00:27:07,279
the bike anytime you want. It's your
525
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:09,679
bike. Subscription models like Swap
526
00:27:07,279 --> 00:27:12,559
Fiats, which already dominate the Dutch
527
00:27:09,679 --> 00:27:15,039
market, are landing in Valencia. These
528
00:27:12,559 --> 00:27:17,120
companies treat the bike as a service,
529
00:27:15,039 --> 00:27:18,400
covering all maintenance and repairs for
530
00:27:17,120 --> 00:27:20,080
a monthly fee.
531
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:22,240
>> Ownership isn't necessarily a bad
532
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,919
investment, but I think um most
533
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:25,360
consumers are moving away from owning
534
00:27:23,919 --> 00:27:27,120
things. You know, people are leasing
535
00:27:25,360 --> 00:27:29,840
their cars, people are, you know, more
536
00:27:27,120 --> 00:27:31,600
and more renting their homes. Um so for
537
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:33,840
us, a subscription model made sense.
538
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:36,080
That and affordability. This eliminates
539
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:39,039
the fear of theft and long-term
540
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:41,360
depreciation, turning the bicycle into a
541
00:27:39,039 --> 00:27:44,559
predictable low- friction utility for
542
00:27:41,360 --> 00:27:47,520
the modern worker. The impact extends to
543
00:27:44,559 --> 00:27:49,520
logistics. In Valencia's historic
544
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:51,919
center, where large trucks are
545
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:54,399
increasingly restricted, last mile
546
00:27:51,919 --> 00:27:56,880
delivery by cargo bike is becoming the
547
00:27:54,399 --> 00:27:59,279
gold standard for efficiency. We are
548
00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:01,760
witnessing the birth of micro hubs,
549
00:27:59,279 --> 00:28:04,080
small urban distribution centers that
550
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:07,360
allow for zero emission high-speed
551
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:09,039
delivery in highdensity zones. From the
552
00:28:07,360 --> 00:28:11,440
massive underwater investments in
553
00:28:09,039 --> 00:28:14,000
Amsterdam to the emerging subscription
554
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:17,039
models in Valencia, the message is
555
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:19,919
clear. The bicycle is no longer just a
556
00:28:17,039 --> 00:28:22,480
hobby. It is a financial instrument and
557
00:28:19,919 --> 00:28:23,600
a spatial optimizer.
558
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:26,080
You know, when we were speaking to
559
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:28,399
consumers about how we could get them to
560
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:30,240
switch from a car to an ebike, it was
561
00:28:28,399 --> 00:28:32,480
all about convenience. So, it was about
562
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:34,480
this idea that, you know, with a car,
563
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:36,240
you can go point A to point B whenever
564
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:38,320
you want. You're not relying on public
565
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:40,399
transit or any of those things. But if
566
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:42,080
you need gas, you go to a gas station,
567
00:28:40,399 --> 00:28:44,399
it takes 5 minutes, and you're back on
568
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:46,240
your way. People perceived ebikes as
569
00:28:44,399 --> 00:28:47,760
inconvenient because, oh, what if I
570
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:49,840
forget to charge the battery? Then it's
571
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:52,080
just kind of a very heavy paper weight.
572
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:53,679
Um, but if we eliminate that need for
573
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:56,159
charging and people can just come and
574
00:28:53,679 --> 00:28:58,240
collect a charge battery anytime, um, it
575
00:28:56,159 --> 00:29:00,960
helps break that barrier to entry for
576
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:03,039
getting out of a car. By integrating
577
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:05,520
these new business models with public
578
00:29:03,039 --> 00:29:08,559
planning, Valencia is securing its place
579
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:11,200
in the 21st century economy. Proving
580
00:29:08,559 --> 00:29:14,720
that a dense functional city isn't just
581
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:16,559
a choice, it's a competitive necessity.
582
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:18,559
>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
583
00:29:16,559 --> 00:29:20,080
going to become obsolete. Cities are
584
00:29:18,559 --> 00:29:21,760
building for pedestrians. They're
585
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:24,320
building for cycling. They're building
586
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:26,320
for livability, not for cars.
587
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:28,480
>> Throughout this documentary, we have
588
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:31,520
seen the gears of a massive economic
589
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:34,480
machine. But there is a final myth we
590
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:36,880
must dismantle. The idea that cities
591
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:39,360
like Amsterdam or Valencia look like
592
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:41,840
this because their citizens are simply
593
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:45,600
different. History tells a different
594
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:47,520
story. In the 1970s, Amsterdam was on
595
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:50,480
the verge of becoming another car
596
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:53,200
ccentric congested metropolis. The
597
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:56,080
transition we see today wasn't a natural
598
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:58,799
evolution of culture. It was a hostile
599
00:29:56,080 --> 00:30:01,679
takeover of urban space by a policy and
600
00:29:58,799 --> 00:30:04,399
planning. When a city reaches a certain
601
00:30:01,679 --> 00:30:07,279
density, freedom of choice in transport
602
00:30:04,399 --> 00:30:10,799
becomes a mathematical impossibility.
603
00:30:07,279 --> 00:30:12,799
If everyone chooses a car, no one moves.
604
00:30:10,799 --> 00:30:15,520
In this high stakes environment,
605
00:30:12,799 --> 00:30:18,000
planning is not an option. It is the
606
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:21,039
only way to survive. What is the
607
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:23,919
ultimate harvest of this planning? It is
608
00:30:21,039 --> 00:30:26,240
the 3% GDP boost we mentioned at the
609
00:30:23,919 --> 00:30:27,760
start. But it's also found in the
610
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:30,960
margins,
611
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:32,880
the fiscal savings by avoiding the need
612
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:35,279
for multi-billion euro highway
613
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:38,320
expansions and massive health care costs
614
00:30:35,279 --> 00:30:41,360
related to sedentary lifestyles.
615
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:43,600
The resilience factor by creating a
616
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:46,399
circular metropolis that can process its
617
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:48,399
own waste at the Kruu depot and turn it
618
00:30:46,399 --> 00:30:51,600
back into capital.
619
00:30:48,399 --> 00:30:53,679
The talent magnet in the global war for
620
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:56,960
talent. Highly skilled workers choose
621
00:30:53,679 --> 00:30:59,279
cities based on livability. Amsterdam's
622
00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:01,919
bicycle infrastructure is its most
623
00:30:59,279 --> 00:31:03,760
effective recruitment tool. We started
624
00:31:01,919 --> 00:31:06,960
this journey looking at a simple
625
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:09,520
machine, two wheels and a frame. But as
626
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:12,480
we've seen, the bicycle in Amsterdam is
627
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:15,200
much more than a transport mode. It is a
628
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:18,080
financial instrument. It is a spatial
629
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:21,039
optimizer. It is the invisible engine
630
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:25,039
that allows a medieval city to function
631
00:31:21,039 --> 00:31:28,000
as a 21st century economic powerhouse.
632
00:31:25,039 --> 00:31:30,399
The €85 million spent on underwater
633
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:33,440
tunnels, the complex logistics of the
634
00:31:30,399 --> 00:31:36,640
Kruquest Depo, or the new Mediterranean
635
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:39,919
bike lanes are not costs. They are
636
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:42,480
investments in resilience.
637
00:31:39,919 --> 00:31:44,720
In a world of rising energy prices and
638
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:47,679
shrinking urban space, the Amsterdam
639
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:49,919
model offers a glimpse into the future.
640
00:31:47,679 --> 00:31:52,640
It proves that the most sophisticated
641
00:31:49,919 --> 00:31:55,360
technology isn't always a new gadget.
642
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:58,640
Sometimes it's the perfect integration
643
00:31:55,360 --> 00:32:01,640
of an old idea into a new circular
644
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:01,640
world.
645
00:33:06,159 --> 00:33:09,159
Imagine
646
00:33:17,519 --> 00:33:21,279
for a moment, what if your Bitcoin
647
00:33:19,519 --> 00:33:23,360
holdings could purchase more than just
648
00:33:21,279 --> 00:33:25,840
everyday items like coffee or the latest
649
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:27,760
gadgets? What if that digital currency
650
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:30,159
sitting in your wallet could actually
651
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:33,960
buy you a house or perhaps even an
652
00:33:30,159 --> 00:33:33,960
entire commercial building?
653
00:33:44,559 --> 00:33:48,640
Welcome to the fascinating and rapidly
654
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:50,399
evolving world of crypto real estate
655
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:55,000
where digital assets are being
656
00:33:50,399 --> 00:33:55,000
transformed into tangible property.
657
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:02,080
Today, we're taking a deep dive into the
658
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:04,080
revolutionary intersection of
659
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:06,640
cryptocurrency and property ownership,
660
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:08,879
examining in detail how Bitcoin is
661
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:10,800
successfully transforming what were once
662
00:34:08,879 --> 00:34:13,040
purely digital coins into tangible
663
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:14,560
physical real estate investments.
664
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:16,560
Whether you're an experienced crypto
665
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:18,480
investor looking to diversify your
666
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:20,159
portfolio or simply someone who's
667
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:22,320
curious about emerging trends in
668
00:34:20,159 --> 00:34:24,240
property markets, this is an in-depth
669
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:25,839
look at how the landscape and future of
670
00:34:24,240 --> 00:34:28,000
real estate transactions is
671
00:34:25,839 --> 00:34:30,560
fundamentally evolving and changing
672
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:32,560
before our eyes.
673
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:34,480
The financial world is in constant
674
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:36,560
transformation, but in this decade,
675
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:39,919
digitalization has accelerated that
676
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:42,800
change faster than anyone imagined.
677
00:34:39,919 --> 00:34:44,960
Today, money, investments, and assets
678
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:47,679
flow through codes silent, transparent,
679
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:50,480
and borderless. Cryptocurrencies led by
680
00:34:47,679 --> 00:34:52,480
Bitcoin mark the beginning of a new era.
681
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:54,240
They shook the foundations of the global
682
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:57,040
financial system, sparking both
683
00:34:54,240 --> 00:34:59,760
excitement and skepticism. Yet, behind
684
00:34:57,040 --> 00:35:03,960
that phenomenon emerged something even
685
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:03,960
deeper. Tokenization.
686
00:35:06,079 --> 00:35:09,079
Contraos
687
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:28,440
real world assets.
688
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,800
Foreign
689
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:04,800
tokenization brings. So it's the most
690
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:06,480
suitable, most modern ledger technology
691
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:07,119
uh ideal for modernizing capital
692
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:10,320
markets.
693
00:36:07,119 --> 00:36:12,320
>> The idea is simple, the impact enormous.
694
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:14,960
Each token represents a fraction of an
695
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:16,960
asset, a share, a bond, a property, or
696
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:19,040
even a work of art, all recorded on a
697
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:22,040
blockchain, a global tamper proof
698
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:22,040
ledger.
699
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:42,599
Smart contracts.
700
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:56,520
bureau.
701
00:36:56,800 --> 00:37:00,800
>> We believe the next step going forward
702
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:04,800
will be the tokenization of financial
703
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:07,680
assets and that means every stock, every
704
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:09,920
bond will have its own basically QIP.
705
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:12,640
It'll be on one general ledger. In other
706
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:15,280
words, a token isn't just an asset. It's
707
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:17,599
a digital entry in a new kind of ledger
708
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:19,920
that is rewriting how capital markets
709
00:37:17,599 --> 00:37:22,240
keep their books. Investment in
710
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:23,839
tokenized real estates represents one of
711
00:37:22,240 --> 00:37:26,800
the most recent advancements in the
712
00:37:23,839 --> 00:37:29,040
property industry. Tokenization enables
713
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:33,960
houses and apartments to be divided and
714
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:33,960
sold and numerous smaller units.
715
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:43,480
Foreom
716
00:38:10,079 --> 00:38:13,079
Small
717
00:38:20,720 --> 00:38:24,720
programs act like a bridge between a
718
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:26,480
property and online trading platform.
719
00:38:24,720 --> 00:38:28,000
Hence, tokens create a digital
720
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:32,359
representation of a property
721
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:32,359
facilitating its digital transfer.
722
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:37,599
The process of purchasing a property is
723
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:40,000
still associated with significant
724
00:38:37,599 --> 00:38:42,480
bureaucracy, lengthy procedures, and
725
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:45,760
subsequent high costs.
726
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:48,160
So what exactly is crypto real estate?
727
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:50,480
At its core, the term refers to any real
728
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:53,280
estate transaction where cryptocurrency
729
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:55,760
plays a major role either as a direct
730
00:38:53,280 --> 00:39:00,040
form of payment, a converted asset, or
731
00:38:55,760 --> 00:39:00,040
collateral for purchasing property.
732
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:06,200
real estate,
733
00:39:07,599 --> 00:39:10,599
Bitcoins.
734
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:31,800
Crypto reference loans.
735
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:56,320
But the concept goes even deeper than
736
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:58,320
that. Crypto real estate includes buying
737
00:39:56,320 --> 00:40:00,400
a home directly with Bitcoin or other
738
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:03,520
cryptocurrencies, using stable coins
739
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:06,480
like USDT or USDC for a more stable
740
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:08,400
purchase, converting crypto into fiat at
741
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:09,839
closing, taking out loans backed by
742
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:11,520
cryptocurrency to purchase real
743
00:40:09,839 --> 00:40:13,520
property, tokenized real estate where
744
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:15,200
ownership is fractionalized into digital
745
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:16,800
token, blockchain based property
746
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:19,800
records, and smart contract driven
747
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:19,800
transactions.
748
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:35,320
Stable coins.
749
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:52,040
Stable coins.
750
00:41:00,720 --> 00:41:06,200
EMT. E A R T
751
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:18,520
U USDT
752
00:41:22,319 --> 00:41:25,319
USDC
753
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,760
US
754
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:48,520
stable coinry.
755
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:03,480
Fore
756
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:31,920
for example.
757
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:45,119
It's an evolution in how value moves
758
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:47,280
around the world. And for the first
759
00:42:45,119 --> 00:42:51,720
time, digital wealth is becoming a
760
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:51,720
direct pathway to physical ownership.
761
00:42:53,359 --> 00:42:57,119
To understand how we arrived at this
762
00:42:55,359 --> 00:42:59,599
moment, we need to step back and look at
763
00:42:57,119 --> 00:43:01,680
the timeline. Bitcoin launched in 2009
764
00:42:59,599 --> 00:43:03,599
as a peer-to-peer digital alternative to
765
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:05,440
money. In its early years, the idea of
766
00:43:03,599 --> 00:43:07,760
using Bitcoin to buy real estate was
767
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:10,000
laughable. But Bitcoin grew, first
768
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:12,560
crossing $1, then a 100, then a
769
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:15,119
thousand, then tens of thousands. A new
770
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:17,200
wave of wealth was created. Suddenly,
771
00:43:15,119 --> 00:43:19,280
early adopters who once bought pizza
772
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:22,319
with Bitcoin now had enough digital
773
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:24,640
value to buy entire homes, and sellers
774
00:43:22,319 --> 00:43:26,720
began paying attention. The first public
775
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:29,520
record of a property purchased fully in
776
00:43:26,720 --> 00:43:31,359
Bitcoin. and dates back to 2017. From
777
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:34,079
there, the trend spread to luxury
778
00:43:31,359 --> 00:43:36,400
markets. Miami, Los Angeles, New York,
779
00:43:34,079 --> 00:43:38,400
Dubai, and London. Developers began
780
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:40,560
marketing properties specifically to
781
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:43,359
crypto buyers. Brokers started
782
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:45,920
specializing in crypto transactions.
783
00:43:43,359 --> 00:43:47,760
Escrow companies adapted.
784
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:51,040
Even governments began studying
785
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:53,599
blockchainbased property registries.
786
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:56,160
Buying real estate with Bitcoin isn't
787
00:43:53,599 --> 00:43:58,079
science fiction. Some sellers now accept
788
00:43:56,160 --> 00:44:00,079
crypto directly, while others work
789
00:43:58,079 --> 00:44:03,280
through brokers who convert Bitcoin into
790
00:44:00,079 --> 00:44:05,359
local currency. The process is faster,
791
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:07,680
borderless, and sometimes even tax
792
00:44:05,359 --> 00:44:10,079
efficient if you know the rules. Things
793
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:13,520
that sounded impossible in 2010 became
794
00:44:10,079 --> 00:44:15,760
normal by 2020. And now in the 2020s,
795
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:18,160
cryptocurrency is becoming a serious
796
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:20,079
player in global real estate. The crypto
797
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:22,319
boom has created a new class of
798
00:44:20,079 --> 00:44:24,880
investors. High- netw worth individuals
799
00:44:22,319 --> 00:44:27,520
want to diversify and real estate is a
800
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:30,400
safe tangible asset. From luxury homes
801
00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:32,720
in Miami to condos in Dubai, Bitcoin
802
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:34,720
buyers are making their mark. Let's look
803
00:44:32,720 --> 00:44:36,480
at a few real world examples to
804
00:44:34,720 --> 00:44:40,160
understand how crypto real estate works
805
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:42,640
in practice. Case study one. In 2021, a
806
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:45,119
luxury penthouse at Arte by Antonio
807
00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:48,640
Satario in Surfside, Florida made
808
00:44:45,119 --> 00:44:50,480
history. The property sold for $22.5
809
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:52,800
million, paid entirely in
810
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:54,960
cryptocurrency. The largest publicly
811
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:57,520
known real estate transaction completed
812
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:59,040
using digital assets at the time. A
813
00:44:57,520 --> 00:45:01,359
developer's decision to accept
814
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:03,359
cryptocurrency had paid off. The sale
815
00:45:01,359 --> 00:45:05,040
came just weeks after the developer
816
00:45:03,359 --> 00:45:06,880
announced it would begin accepting
817
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:08,480
cryptocurrency payments through a
818
00:45:06,880 --> 00:45:10,560
partnership with blockchain platform
819
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:12,480
Solid Block. According to Forbes, the
820
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:15,119
deal demonstrated that crypto was no
821
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:17,280
longer just a speculative asset. It had
822
00:45:15,119 --> 00:45:20,240
become a viable method for purchasing
823
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:22,800
high-end real estate. Case study 2. In
824
00:45:20,240 --> 00:45:24,800
Dubai, one of the earliest large-scale
825
00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:27,599
experiments with crypto real estate
826
00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:30,480
unfolded at Aston Plaza and residences
827
00:45:27,599 --> 00:45:32,400
located in Dubai Science Park. Marketed
828
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:34,640
as one of the first major developments
829
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:36,400
in the region to accept Bitcoin. The
830
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:38,720
project offered apartments priced
831
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:40,800
directly in cryptocurrency.
832
00:45:38,720 --> 00:45:43,520
Buyers were able to commit funds using
833
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:45,359
Bitcoin, capturing global attention. But
834
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:48,319
the story also revealed the risks of
835
00:45:45,359 --> 00:45:51,760
innovation. Originally advertised as a
836
00:45:48,319 --> 00:45:53,920
$325 million development. The project
837
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:56,319
later stalled and its completion became
838
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:59,200
uncertain. While crypto payments were
839
00:45:56,319 --> 00:46:01,359
accepted, it remains unclear whether all
840
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:03,760
buyers ultimately received finished
841
00:46:01,359 --> 00:46:06,240
properties. The case highlighted both
842
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:09,119
the promise and the pitfalls of early
843
00:46:06,240 --> 00:46:12,160
crypto adoption real estate. Case study
844
00:46:09,119 --> 00:46:14,000
three. In 2025, Spain recorded one of
845
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:16,640
its first officially reported property
846
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:19,599
sales completed with Bitcoin. A property
847
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:21,599
in Madrid valued at approximately 1.5
848
00:46:19,599 --> 00:46:23,760
million of euros was purchased by an
849
00:46:21,599 --> 00:46:25,680
international buyer using Bitcoin. The
850
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:28,319
transaction followed standard real
851
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:30,720
estate procedures including escrow,
852
00:46:28,319 --> 00:46:33,040
legal compliance, and the conversion of
853
00:46:30,720 --> 00:46:35,040
crypto into euros for the seller. It
854
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:37,040
marked a significant milestone showing
855
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:39,280
that cryptocurrency could integrate into
856
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:41,839
traditional real estate systems even in
857
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:44,480
highly regulated European markets. Case
858
00:46:41,839 --> 00:46:47,040
study 4. In the United States, crypto
859
00:46:44,480 --> 00:46:49,599
adoption hasn't been limited to coastal
860
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:52,000
tech hubs. An agent with Safabi
861
00:46:49,599 --> 00:46:54,880
International Realy in Delaware reported
862
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:57,680
selling a luxury property for $175
863
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:59,760
million paid in Bitcoin. Believed to be
864
00:46:57,680 --> 00:47:01,440
one of the state's first major real
865
00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:03,680
estate transactions involving
866
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:05,760
cryptocurrency, the sale was widely
867
00:47:03,680 --> 00:47:07,680
publicized as a local milestone,
868
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:09,680
signaling that crypto real estate was
869
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:14,359
beginning to reach beyond niche markets
870
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:14,359
and into everyday property transactions.
871
00:47:15,119 --> 00:47:18,599
Genius Act.
872
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:34,599
different stable coins.
873
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:16,040
Maximum.
874
00:48:29,599 --> 00:48:32,599
for
875
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:01,040
technology.
876
00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:10,559
Taken together, these cases tell a
877
00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:12,800
larger story, one of experimentation,
878
00:49:10,559 --> 00:49:15,119
success, setbacks, and growing
879
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:17,359
legitimacy. Crypto real estate is no
880
00:49:15,119 --> 00:49:19,599
longer hypothetical. It's happening
881
00:49:17,359 --> 00:49:23,359
transaction by transaction across the
882
00:49:19,599 --> 00:49:25,040
globe. But it's not all smooth sailing.
883
00:49:23,359 --> 00:49:27,599
Crypto's value can be volatile.
884
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:30,079
Regulations vary by country, and tax
885
00:49:27,599 --> 00:49:32,400
implications can be tricky. First,
886
00:49:30,079 --> 00:49:34,559
volatility. Bitcoin and other
887
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:36,400
cryptocurrencies can move dramatically,
888
00:49:34,559 --> 00:49:38,240
sometimes losing or gaining a third of
889
00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:40,559
their value in weeks. For buyers who
890
00:49:38,240 --> 00:49:44,000
convert at closing, rapid swings can
891
00:49:40,559 --> 00:49:47,119
erase gains or spike costs in hours.
892
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:49,200
Second, transaction mechanics and title.
893
00:49:47,119 --> 00:49:51,280
Even when a seller accepts crypto, most
894
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:52,720
governments and land registries require
895
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:55,119
deeds to be issued in the local
896
00:49:52,720 --> 00:49:57,280
currency. That usually means an
897
00:49:55,119 --> 00:49:59,200
intermediary converts crypto to fiat
898
00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:01,440
before the legal title is registered,
899
00:49:59,200 --> 00:50:03,119
adding counterparty risk and an extra
900
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:06,000
step that can delay and complicate
901
00:50:03,119 --> 00:50:07,760
settlements. Third, taxes. In many
902
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:09,839
jurisdictions, authorities treat crypto
903
00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:11,760
as property, not currency, which makes
904
00:50:09,839 --> 00:50:14,079
nearly every transfer a taxable event.
905
00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:16,160
That includes sales, exchanges, and
906
00:50:14,079 --> 00:50:18,400
sometimes even payments for goods or
907
00:50:16,160 --> 00:50:20,640
services. Buyers and sellers must track
908
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:22,800
cost basis gains and report the
909
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:25,359
transactions accurately or face audits
910
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:27,280
and penalties. Fourth, lending and
911
00:50:25,359 --> 00:50:28,880
counterparty risk. Cryptoback lending
912
00:50:27,280 --> 00:50:30,720
exploded in the previous market cycle,
913
00:50:28,880 --> 00:50:32,960
but it ended with high-profile collapses
914
00:50:30,720 --> 00:50:34,800
and bankruptcies. When platforms fail,
915
00:50:32,960 --> 00:50:36,720
borrowers and depositors can lose access
916
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:38,400
to funds. Collateral can be liquidated
917
00:50:36,720 --> 00:50:40,160
at a loss and promise liquidity
918
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:42,079
disappears, a danger for anyone relying
919
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:44,240
on thirdparty services to bridge crypto
920
00:50:42,079 --> 00:50:45,599
and property purchases.
921
00:50:44,240 --> 00:50:48,079
Fifth, compliance and
922
00:50:45,599 --> 00:50:49,760
anti-moneylaundering rules. Regulators
923
00:50:48,079 --> 00:50:51,599
and global bodies have tightened rules
924
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:53,839
around virtual assets to prevent elicit
925
00:50:51,599 --> 00:50:56,240
flows. Real estate transactions are high
926
00:50:53,839 --> 00:50:57,920
on that list, meaning additional KYC,
927
00:50:56,240 --> 00:51:00,000
source of fund checks, and reporting
928
00:50:57,920 --> 00:51:01,920
requirements. Failure to meet these
929
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:04,160
standards can stall a sale, trigger
930
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:07,280
investigations, or expose participants
931
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:09,599
to legal liability. Sixth, operational
932
00:51:07,280 --> 00:51:11,359
and technical risk. Crypto transactions
933
00:51:09,599 --> 00:51:12,960
are irreversible. A single wrong
934
00:51:11,359 --> 00:51:14,640
character in a wallet address or a
935
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:16,319
fishing attack on an email with wiring
936
00:51:14,640 --> 00:51:17,760
instructions can send millions to the
937
00:51:16,319 --> 00:51:20,160
wrong place and there's no bank to
938
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:22,559
reverse the transfer. Seven, technology
939
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:24,559
risk, smart contracts, tokenization, and
940
00:51:22,559 --> 00:51:26,640
new platforms bring innovation, but also
941
00:51:24,559 --> 00:51:28,720
software bugs and design flaws. A poorly
942
00:51:26,640 --> 00:51:31,040
written smart contract or an unodudited
943
00:51:28,720 --> 00:51:33,200
tokenization platform can freeze assets,
944
00:51:31,040 --> 00:51:35,920
misallocate ownership shares, or enable
945
00:51:33,200 --> 00:51:37,680
exploits. Finally, market and
946
00:51:35,920 --> 00:51:39,200
reputational risk. Developers and
947
00:51:37,680 --> 00:51:40,800
brokers who accept crypto can attract
948
00:51:39,200 --> 00:51:42,720
new buyers, but they also take on
949
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:44,400
greater scrutiny, regulatory compliance
950
00:51:42,720 --> 00:51:46,000
burdens, and the risk that projects
951
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:48,240
promoted with crypto funding may
952
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:51,040
underdel, stall, or become entangled in
953
00:51:48,240 --> 00:51:53,359
legal disputes. In short, crypto can
954
00:51:51,040 --> 00:51:56,000
speed and globalize property deals. But
955
00:51:53,359 --> 00:51:58,559
it also layers on volatility, regulatory
956
00:51:56,000 --> 00:52:00,640
complexity, and new failure modes. For
957
00:51:58,559 --> 00:52:02,960
buyers, sellers, and advisers, the
958
00:52:00,640 --> 00:52:04,800
lesson is clear. proceed with rigorous
959
00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:07,359
legal counsel, hardened custody
960
00:52:04,800 --> 00:52:09,440
practices, and transparent compliance.
961
00:52:07,359 --> 00:52:12,440
The opportunity is real, but so are the
962
00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:12,440
pitfalls.
963
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:36,160
Still, the opportunities are huge. A new
964
00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:38,559
generation of buyers is turning digital
965
00:52:36,160 --> 00:52:41,440
value into physical assets. For many,
966
00:52:38,559 --> 00:52:43,760
Bitcoin isn't just a currency. It's a
967
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:44,960
gateway to ownership.
968
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:47,280
One of the biggest shifts is
969
00:52:44,960 --> 00:52:49,359
tokenization. Instead of buying an
970
00:52:47,280 --> 00:52:51,280
entire building, investors can now
971
00:52:49,359 --> 00:52:53,920
purchase fractional ownership through
972
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:55,520
blockchainbased tokens. This lowers the
973
00:52:53,920 --> 00:52:57,599
barrier to entry, allowing smaller
974
00:52:55,520 --> 00:52:59,359
investors to access real estate markets
975
00:52:57,599 --> 00:53:03,079
that were once reserved for institutions
976
00:52:59,359 --> 00:53:03,079
and the ultra wealthy.
977
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:13,079
The
978
00:53:10,079 --> 00:53:13,079
initial
979
00:53:19,599 --> 00:53:21,760
fraction
980
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:32,760
for
981
00:53:47,599 --> 00:53:52,480
Tokenization also brings liquidity to an
982
00:53:50,480 --> 00:53:54,880
industry that has traditionally been
983
00:53:52,480 --> 00:53:57,280
slow and illquid. Real estate
984
00:53:54,880 --> 00:53:59,440
transactions can take months. Tokenized
985
00:53:57,280 --> 00:54:02,160
shares can potentially be transferred in
986
00:53:59,440 --> 00:54:04,480
minutes. Crypto is also reshaping
987
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:06,559
crossber real estate. International
988
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:09,359
buyers often face currency controls,
989
00:54:06,559 --> 00:54:11,440
wire delays, and banking restrictions.
990
00:54:09,359 --> 00:54:13,280
Cryptocurrency allows capital to move
991
00:54:11,440 --> 00:54:15,040
globally with fewer friction points,
992
00:54:13,280 --> 00:54:17,119
opening markets to buyers who were
993
00:54:15,040 --> 00:54:18,800
previously locked out. As a result,
994
00:54:17,119 --> 00:54:20,400
cities that embrace crypto-friendly
995
00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:22,240
regulations are attracting global
996
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:23,760
capital faster. Developers are
997
00:54:22,240 --> 00:54:25,680
responding by marketing properties
998
00:54:23,760 --> 00:54:28,160
directly to crypto holders, not as a
999
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:30,079
novelty, but as a strategy. Governments
1000
00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:32,079
are also exploring blockchain for land
1001
00:54:30,079 --> 00:54:34,079
registries and property records.
1002
00:54:32,079 --> 00:54:36,079
Immutable ledgers can reduce disputes,
1003
00:54:34,079 --> 00:54:38,400
prevent title fraud, and provide
1004
00:54:36,079 --> 00:54:39,920
permanent verifiable ownership history,
1005
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:42,240
especially in regions where property
1006
00:54:39,920 --> 00:54:44,000
rights are difficult to enforce. This
1007
00:54:42,240 --> 00:54:45,920
isn't a complete replacement of
1008
00:54:44,000 --> 00:54:48,240
traditional real estate. It's a
1009
00:54:45,920 --> 00:54:50,640
transformation. Crypto doesn't eliminate
1010
00:54:48,240 --> 00:54:52,400
the fundamentals. Location, demand, and
1011
00:54:50,640 --> 00:54:54,240
due diligence still matter, but it
1012
00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:56,400
changes how value moves, how quickly
1013
00:54:54,240 --> 00:54:58,400
deals happen, and who gets access. So,
1014
00:54:56,400 --> 00:55:00,559
what does all of this mean for you as an
1015
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:02,319
investor or future home buyer? It means
1016
00:55:00,559 --> 00:55:04,240
new opportunities are emerging.
1017
00:55:02,319 --> 00:55:06,480
Opportunities to leverage your crypto
1018
00:55:04,240 --> 00:55:09,119
holdings. Opportunities to participate
1019
00:55:06,480 --> 00:55:11,520
in international markets more easily.
1020
00:55:09,119 --> 00:55:15,079
Opportunities to acquire property faster
1021
00:55:11,520 --> 00:55:15,079
and more efficiently.
1022
00:55:20,480 --> 00:55:23,720
real estate.
1023
00:55:28,960 --> 00:55:31,960
Constessure
1024
00:55:52,319 --> 00:55:54,720
consequenc
1025
00:56:05,200 --> 00:56:08,440
Real estate
1026
00:56:14,240 --> 00:56:17,240
system.
1027
00:56:20,079 --> 00:56:23,079
Contra
1028
00:56:45,359 --> 00:56:48,520
real estate.
1029
00:56:54,640 --> 00:56:59,839
But like any emerging space, education
1030
00:56:57,520 --> 00:57:02,400
is key. Working with crypto-friendly
1031
00:56:59,839 --> 00:57:04,480
agents, attorneys, and escrow companies
1032
00:57:02,400 --> 00:57:06,559
is essential.
1033
00:57:04,480 --> 00:57:08,319
Understanding your local regulations is
1034
00:57:06,559 --> 00:57:10,000
crucial, and ensuring the security of
1035
00:57:08,319 --> 00:57:13,000
your crypto wallet is absolutely
1036
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:13,000
non-negotiable.
1037
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:19,960
for
1038
00:57:24,640 --> 00:57:28,040
sophistic. for
1039
00:58:02,960 --> 00:58:05,119
Moment.
1040
00:58:05,839 --> 00:58:08,839
Tomando
1041
00:58:26,000 --> 00:58:28,160
fundament.
1042
00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:37,640
Absolute
1043
00:58:40,000 --> 00:58:43,000
maximas.
1044
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:21,280
The cryptocurrency market has entered
1045
00:59:18,799 --> 00:59:24,559
the opening days of 2026 with renewed
1046
00:59:21,280 --> 00:59:26,799
momentum. After a volatile end to 2025,
1047
00:59:24,559 --> 00:59:28,480
prices across major digital assets have
1048
00:59:26,799 --> 00:59:30,079
moved sharply higher, drawing attention
1049
00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:32,400
from both retail traders and
1050
00:59:30,079 --> 00:59:34,640
institutional investors. In early
1051
00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:37,040
January, the total cryptocurrency market
1052
00:59:34,640 --> 00:59:39,440
capitalization climbed to around $3.2
1053
00:59:37,040 --> 00:59:41,440
trillion, according to aggregated data
1054
00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:43,119
from major market trackers. This
1055
00:59:41,440 --> 00:59:45,760
represents a meaningful rebound from
1056
00:59:43,119 --> 00:59:47,440
late 2025 levels, with the market adding
1057
00:59:45,760 --> 00:59:49,359
hundreds of billions of dollars in value
1058
00:59:47,440 --> 00:59:51,280
over a relatively short period. While
1059
00:59:49,359 --> 00:59:52,799
exact figures vary, the direction is
1060
00:59:51,280 --> 00:59:54,400
clear. Capital has returned to the
1061
00:59:52,799 --> 00:59:56,240
crypto market at the start of the year.
1062
00:59:54,400 --> 00:59:58,720
At the center of this move is Bitcoin,
1063
00:59:56,240 --> 01:00:01,119
which rallied toward the $93,000 level
1064
00:59:58,720 --> 01:00:03,040
in the first week of January. As the
1065
01:00:01,119 --> 01:00:05,280
largest and most influential digital
1066
01:00:03,040 --> 01:00:06,880
asset, Bitcoin continues to act as the
1067
01:00:05,280 --> 01:00:08,319
market's primary anchor, and its
1068
01:00:06,880 --> 01:00:10,400
strength has helped lift sentiment
1069
01:00:08,319 --> 01:00:12,720
across the broader ecosystem.
1070
01:00:10,400 --> 01:00:15,119
Historically, strong Bitcoin performance
1071
01:00:12,720 --> 01:00:16,559
has often preceded periods of increased
1072
01:00:15,119 --> 01:00:19,359
activity in alternative
1073
01:00:16,559 --> 01:00:21,280
cryptocurrencies, and early 2026 appears
1074
01:00:19,359 --> 01:00:22,960
to be following a similar pattern.
1075
01:00:21,280 --> 01:00:24,559
Another key factor has been renewed
1076
01:00:22,960 --> 01:00:26,319
institutional participation,
1077
01:00:24,559 --> 01:00:28,880
particularly through spot Bitcoin and
1078
01:00:26,319 --> 01:00:31,280
Ethereum exchange traded funds. Reports
1079
01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:33,040
from early January indicate notable ETF
1080
01:00:31,280 --> 01:00:34,799
inflows, suggesting that traditional
1081
01:00:33,040 --> 01:00:36,880
investors are once again increasing
1082
01:00:34,799 --> 01:00:38,640
exposure to digital assets. The current
1083
01:00:36,880 --> 01:00:40,480
momentum appears to be driven by a
1084
01:00:38,640 --> 01:00:43,440
combination of factors, including
1085
01:00:40,480 --> 01:00:46,240
Bitcoin's price recovery, increased ETF
1086
01:00:43,440 --> 01:00:47,760
inflows, improved global risk sentiment,
1087
01:00:46,240 --> 01:00:50,160
expectations of more supportive
1088
01:00:47,760 --> 01:00:52,640
regulatory and macroeconomic conditions.
1089
01:00:50,160 --> 01:00:54,480
As 2026 begins, the cryptocurrency
1090
01:00:52,640 --> 01:00:56,640
market finds itself at a familiar
1091
01:00:54,480 --> 01:00:58,400
crossroads. Renewed optimism balanced
1092
01:00:56,640 --> 01:01:00,000
against persistent uncertainty. Whether
1093
01:00:58,400 --> 01:01:01,839
this earlier strength marks the
1094
01:01:00,000 --> 01:01:03,520
beginning of a sustained trend or simply
1095
01:01:01,839 --> 01:01:05,520
another chapter in crypto's cyclical
1096
01:01:03,520 --> 01:01:08,559
nature is a question that only time will
1097
01:01:05,520 --> 01:01:11,280
answer. For now, the message from the
1098
01:01:08,559 --> 01:01:13,280
market is clear. Crypto is once again
1099
01:01:11,280 --> 01:01:14,960
commanding attention. If you approach
1100
01:01:13,280 --> 01:01:17,040
crypto real estate with knowledge and
1101
01:01:14,960 --> 01:01:19,920
preparation, the rewards can be
1102
01:01:17,040 --> 01:01:22,720
extraordinary. Bitcoin the bricks isn't
1103
01:01:19,920 --> 01:01:25,040
just a catchy phrase. It's the future of
1104
01:01:22,720 --> 01:01:27,359
real estate investment. If you want to
1105
01:01:25,040 --> 01:01:29,920
stay ahead of the curve, now's the time
1106
01:01:27,359 --> 01:01:32,920
to learn how crypto can open doors.
1107
01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:32,920
Literally.
1108
01:01:43,520 --> 01:01:46,520
Explorer
1109
01:01:56,240 --> 01:01:59,240
Transparence.
1110
01:02:29,839 --> 01:02:33,760
From digital coins to physical assets,
1111
01:02:32,079 --> 01:02:35,760
from online wallets to real world
1112
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:37,839
property lines, cryptocurrency is
1113
01:02:35,760 --> 01:02:40,400
reshaping how we buy, sell, and think
1114
01:02:37,839 --> 01:02:42,720
about real estate. We are witnessing the
1115
01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:44,400
merging of two worlds. The oldest asset
1116
01:02:42,720 --> 01:02:46,640
on earth and one of the newest
1117
01:02:44,400 --> 01:02:49,440
technological inventions of our time.
1118
01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:51,920
And as the future unfolds, only one
1119
01:02:49,440 --> 01:02:55,240
question remain. Will Bitcoin buy your
1120
01:02:51,920 --> 01:02:55,240
next home?
1121
01:04:18,480 --> 01:04:23,920
September 2008.
1122
01:04:21,359 --> 01:04:26,559
The global financial system is on the
1123
01:04:23,920 --> 01:04:29,520
verge of a total blackout. Layman
1124
01:04:26,559 --> 01:04:33,280
Brothers has vanished. Meil Lynch is
1125
01:04:29,520 --> 01:04:35,280
gone. AIG is hemorrhaging billions every
1126
01:04:33,280 --> 01:04:37,599
hour.
1127
01:04:35,280 --> 01:04:39,520
In Washington, the halls of the Treasury
1128
01:04:37,599 --> 01:04:42,799
are filled with the smartest minds in
1129
01:04:39,520 --> 01:04:45,680
the country. But they have a problem.
1130
01:04:42,799 --> 01:04:48,640
They are staring at a black box of toxic
1131
01:04:45,680 --> 01:04:51,680
debt worth trillions and no tools to
1132
01:04:48,640 --> 01:04:54,720
open it. There is only one person who
1133
01:04:51,680 --> 01:04:57,200
has the map. one person who spent the
1134
01:04:54,720 --> 01:04:59,440
last 20 years building a digital
1135
01:04:57,200 --> 01:05:02,160
unblinking eye that can see through the
1136
01:04:59,440 --> 01:05:04,640
wreckage. The government didn't call the
1137
01:05:02,160 --> 01:05:07,359
big banks to save the world. They needed
1138
01:05:04,640 --> 01:05:09,280
someone to handle the toxic waste. And
1139
01:05:07,359 --> 01:05:11,359
there was only one man that could lead
1140
01:05:09,280 --> 01:05:15,799
through that darkness.
1141
01:05:11,359 --> 01:05:15,799
They called Larry Frink.
1142
01:05:17,200 --> 01:05:22,920
Larry Frink, the man behind Black Rock.
1143
01:05:23,599 --> 01:05:30,079
Today, he manages more money than the
1144
01:05:25,760 --> 01:05:32,319
GDP of almost every nation on Earth, $14
1145
01:05:30,079 --> 01:05:34,319
trillion.
1146
01:05:32,319 --> 01:05:36,720
But before he was the shadow sovereign
1147
01:05:34,319 --> 01:05:38,319
of Wall Street, he was a man who lost
1148
01:05:36,720 --> 01:05:42,400
everything.
1149
01:05:38,319 --> 01:05:44,559
Who is Larry Frink? Lawrence D.Fin, also
1150
01:05:42,400 --> 01:05:47,200
known as Larry Frink, is one of the
1151
01:05:44,559 --> 01:05:50,559
co-founders of Black Rockck. He is also
1152
01:05:47,200 --> 01:05:52,559
the chairman and CEO of the company, the
1153
01:05:50,559 --> 01:05:55,839
largest money management firm in the
1154
01:05:52,559 --> 01:05:57,520
world. It's the first time in history a
1155
01:05:55,839 --> 01:06:00,160
company manages to reach such a
1156
01:05:57,520 --> 01:06:03,200
milestone and gives a clear picture of
1157
01:06:00,160 --> 01:06:05,839
how Black Rockck operates. not just a
1158
01:06:03,200 --> 01:06:08,240
traditional investment bank, but as a
1159
01:06:05,839 --> 01:06:10,960
central pillar of the global financial
1160
01:06:08,240 --> 01:06:13,119
infrastructure where its sheer scale
1161
01:06:10,960 --> 01:06:15,039
allows it to influence economies and
1162
01:06:13,119 --> 01:06:19,359
industries at a level previously
1163
01:06:15,039 --> 01:06:22,319
reserved only for nation states.
1164
01:06:19,359 --> 01:06:25,200
Founded in 1988 as an investment firm
1165
01:06:22,319 --> 01:06:29,280
that prioritized risk management with
1166
01:06:25,200 --> 01:06:32,559
11.5 to$14 trillion under management,
1167
01:06:29,280 --> 01:06:34,799
Blackrop's influence is staggering.
1168
01:06:32,559 --> 01:06:38,880
Black Rockck is a top three shareholder
1169
01:06:34,799 --> 01:06:42,079
in nearly every company in the S&P 500
1170
01:06:38,880 --> 01:06:45,039
from Apple to Exxon, from Microsoft to
1171
01:06:42,079 --> 01:06:48,799
Nestle. They don't just invest in the
1172
01:06:45,039 --> 01:06:51,680
market, they are the market.
1173
01:06:48,799 --> 01:06:54,240
But its reach is personal. It holds the
1174
01:06:51,680 --> 01:06:57,359
retirement dreams of over 35 million
1175
01:06:54,240 --> 01:07:00,000
Americans. This is the story of how a
1176
01:06:57,359 --> 01:07:03,520
kid from a California shoe store became
1177
01:07:00,000 --> 01:07:07,039
the custodian of the world's wealth. But
1178
01:07:03,520 --> 01:07:09,599
who is Larry Frink? Lawrence Douglas
1179
01:07:07,039 --> 01:07:12,079
Frink entered the world on November the
1180
01:07:09,599 --> 01:07:14,880
2nd, 1952.
1181
01:07:12,079 --> 01:07:16,799
Born in Los Angeles, California, he was
1182
01:07:14,880 --> 01:07:18,799
raised in a Jewish family in the heart
1183
01:07:16,799 --> 01:07:23,200
of San Fernando Valley, the
1184
01:07:18,799 --> 01:07:25,520
quintessential American suburb of Vanoi.
1185
01:07:23,200 --> 01:07:28,480
His home was a balance of academic
1186
01:07:25,520 --> 01:07:30,559
discipline and retail grit. His mother,
1187
01:07:28,480 --> 01:07:32,400
Leela, was an English professor who
1188
01:07:30,559 --> 01:07:34,000
valued the power of language and
1189
01:07:32,400 --> 01:07:35,920
education.
1190
01:07:34,000 --> 01:07:38,240
And long before he pulled the strings of
1191
01:07:35,920 --> 01:07:40,400
the global economy, Larry Frink was
1192
01:07:38,240 --> 01:07:43,280
learning the value of money on a much
1193
01:07:40,400 --> 01:07:46,079
smaller scale. His father's shoe store
1194
01:07:43,280 --> 01:07:48,960
in Vanoise, where he spent evenings
1195
01:07:46,079 --> 01:07:51,280
helping and learning the business. As
1196
01:07:48,960 --> 01:07:53,520
one of three children, Larry grew up in
1197
01:07:51,280 --> 01:07:56,559
a household where hard work wasn't just
1198
01:07:53,520 --> 01:07:58,640
encouraged, it was the baseline.
1199
01:07:56,559 --> 01:08:00,640
While he often joked he wasn't the
1200
01:07:58,640 --> 01:08:02,880
smartest in the room, it was this
1201
01:08:00,640 --> 01:08:05,599
specific combination of his mother's
1202
01:08:02,880 --> 01:08:07,599
intellectual curiosity and his father's
1203
01:08:05,599 --> 01:08:10,240
mainstream business sense that would
1204
01:08:07,599 --> 01:08:13,359
eventually form the DNA of a global
1205
01:08:10,240 --> 01:08:15,280
financial giant. While the future titans
1206
01:08:13,359 --> 01:08:17,600
of Wall Street were rubbing elbows in
1207
01:08:15,280 --> 01:08:21,920
the marble halls of Harvard or Yale,
1208
01:08:17,600 --> 01:08:24,000
Think was a brewin. In 1970, Larry
1209
01:08:21,920 --> 01:08:26,480
arrived at UCLA.
1210
01:08:24,000 --> 01:08:29,359
For a young man from Vanoise, this
1211
01:08:26,480 --> 01:08:32,719
wasn't just a local university. It was a
1212
01:08:29,359 --> 01:08:34,880
world of ideas. But it was in his final
1213
01:08:32,719 --> 01:08:37,120
years that the trajectory of his life
1214
01:08:34,880 --> 01:08:39,600
shifted. He immersed himself in
1215
01:08:37,120 --> 01:08:41,600
political science, learning how power
1216
01:08:39,600 --> 01:08:43,759
moves through nations.
1217
01:08:41,600 --> 01:08:46,799
But he soon realized that in the modern
1218
01:08:43,759 --> 01:08:48,480
world, power follows the money. This led
1219
01:08:46,799 --> 01:08:51,440
him to the Anderson School of
1220
01:08:48,480 --> 01:08:53,440
Management, specializing in real estate.
1221
01:08:51,440 --> 01:08:55,520
It was here that he began to see the
1222
01:08:53,440 --> 01:08:57,440
world through the lens of assets and
1223
01:08:55,520 --> 01:08:59,440
yields.
1224
01:08:57,440 --> 01:09:01,839
This public education gave him a
1225
01:08:59,440 --> 01:09:03,679
different edge. While his peers at
1226
01:09:01,839 --> 01:09:05,920
private East Coast schools were being
1227
01:09:03,679 --> 01:09:08,799
groomed for traditional corporate roles,
1228
01:09:05,920 --> 01:09:10,640
Larry was developing the outsers's eye,
1229
01:09:08,799 --> 01:09:12,960
perspective that allowed him to see
1230
01:09:10,640 --> 01:09:17,159
opportunities in the messy, unpolished
1231
01:09:12,960 --> 01:09:17,159
corners of the bond market.
1232
01:09:17,679 --> 01:09:22,640
He graduated in 1976,
1233
01:09:20,480 --> 01:09:24,719
not with a silver spoon, but with a
1234
01:09:22,640 --> 01:09:27,040
California bred ambition to take on the
1235
01:09:24,719 --> 01:09:29,679
giants of Manhattan.
1236
01:09:27,040 --> 01:09:32,159
He was a brewin headed for Wall Street
1237
01:09:29,679 --> 01:09:35,400
and the financial world had no idea what
1238
01:09:32,159 --> 01:09:35,400
was coming.
1239
01:09:37,520 --> 01:09:42,000
The year is 1976.
1240
01:09:40,159 --> 01:09:44,159
New York City is a grit cover
1241
01:09:42,000 --> 01:09:46,880
battlefield and Larry Frink has just
1242
01:09:44,159 --> 01:09:49,199
been handed the keys to the kingdom.
1243
01:09:46,880 --> 01:09:51,440
Goldman Sachs, the most prestigious name
1244
01:09:49,199 --> 01:09:54,719
in finance back then, has practically
1245
01:09:51,440 --> 01:09:57,760
hired him. He had passed the technical
1246
01:09:54,719 --> 01:09:59,600
tests. kid charmed the partners. All
1247
01:09:57,760 --> 01:10:02,159
that remained was a rubber stamp
1248
01:09:59,600 --> 01:10:05,520
interview with human resources.
1249
01:10:02,159 --> 01:10:08,159
But Larry, Larry wasn't just confident,
1250
01:10:05,520 --> 01:10:10,000
he was impatient. When the recruiter
1251
01:10:08,159 --> 01:10:12,480
asked for his thoughts on the firm,
1252
01:10:10,000 --> 01:10:15,120
Larry didn't give a thank you, he gave a
1253
01:10:12,480 --> 01:10:17,679
consultation. He pointed out the flaws
1254
01:10:15,120 --> 01:10:20,800
in their system. At Goldman, they wanted
1255
01:10:17,679 --> 01:10:24,040
a soldier. Larry was already acting like
1256
01:10:20,800 --> 01:10:24,040
a general.
1257
01:10:25,520 --> 01:10:30,880
In that room, the rigid Goldman way
1258
01:10:27,920 --> 01:10:33,040
clashed with the unfiltered Frink way.
1259
01:10:30,880 --> 01:10:36,400
Before he could even hail a camp back to
1260
01:10:33,040 --> 01:10:38,719
his hotel, the offer was dead. The most
1261
01:10:36,400 --> 01:10:41,040
coveted job in Wall Street history had
1262
01:10:38,719 --> 01:10:42,960
vanished. All because Larry Frink
1263
01:10:41,040 --> 01:10:46,320
couldn't stop himself from trying to fix
1264
01:10:42,960 --> 01:10:49,280
a system he hadn't even joined yet. It
1265
01:10:46,320 --> 01:10:51,760
was a crushing blow. But in the shadow
1266
01:10:49,280 --> 01:10:54,000
of that rejection, a door opened at a
1267
01:10:51,760 --> 01:10:56,480
scrappy second tier firm called First
1268
01:10:54,000 --> 01:10:59,840
Boston. It was a place with less
1269
01:10:56,480 --> 01:11:02,159
prestige but more white space. At
1270
01:10:59,840 --> 01:11:05,199
Goldman, he would have been a cog in a
1271
01:11:02,159 --> 01:11:08,080
perfect machine. At First Boston, he was
1272
01:11:05,199 --> 01:11:10,159
the architect. He was given a desk, a
1273
01:11:08,080 --> 01:11:12,400
telephone, and the freedom to build
1274
01:11:10,159 --> 01:11:15,280
something entirely new, the
1275
01:11:12,400 --> 01:11:18,000
mortgagebacked security. He didn't know
1276
01:11:15,280 --> 01:11:20,640
it yet, but that recruiters know was the
1277
01:11:18,000 --> 01:11:25,640
foundation upon which the 14 trillion
1278
01:11:20,640 --> 01:11:25,640
empire of Black Rockck would be built.
1279
01:11:30,640 --> 01:11:36,960
It's 1976 when Larry Frink arrives at
1280
01:11:33,920 --> 01:11:38,960
First Boston. At the time, the firm was
1281
01:11:36,960 --> 01:11:41,679
the scrappy underdog of investment
1282
01:11:38,960 --> 01:11:45,360
banking. It wasn't as stiff as Morgan
1283
01:11:41,679 --> 01:11:47,440
Stanley or as elitist as Goldman. It was
1284
01:11:45,360 --> 01:11:50,640
the perfect laboratory for a man who
1285
01:11:47,440 --> 01:11:53,679
didn't fit the mold. Larry was assigned
1286
01:11:50,640 --> 01:11:55,600
to the bond department. Back then, bonds
1287
01:11:53,679 --> 01:11:58,000
were considered the boring corner of
1288
01:11:55,600 --> 01:12:01,600
finance. It was where you went to
1289
01:11:58,000 --> 01:12:04,560
retire. Stocks were sexy. Bonds were for
1290
01:12:01,600 --> 01:12:07,199
grandmothers. But Larry saw something
1291
01:12:04,560 --> 01:12:09,440
everyone else missed.
1292
01:12:07,199 --> 01:12:12,159
He looked at the American dream. the
1293
01:12:09,440 --> 01:12:15,199
suburban house, the white picket fence,
1294
01:12:12,159 --> 01:12:18,080
the 30-year mortgage, and he saw a math
1295
01:12:15,199 --> 01:12:20,560
problem. He realized that if you took
1296
01:12:18,080 --> 01:12:22,400
thousands of individual home mortgages,
1297
01:12:20,560 --> 01:12:24,880
bundled them together like a deck of
1298
01:12:22,400 --> 01:12:28,960
cards, and sold slices of that deck to
1299
01:12:24,880 --> 01:12:31,760
investors, you created a money machine.
1300
01:12:28,960 --> 01:12:33,280
This was the birth of the securitization
1301
01:12:31,760 --> 01:12:35,679
market.
1302
01:12:33,280 --> 01:12:38,320
What Larry Frink helped create was more
1303
01:12:35,679 --> 01:12:41,960
than a financial product. It was a
1304
01:12:38,320 --> 01:12:41,960
structural shift.
1305
01:12:42,320 --> 01:12:47,280
Securitization didn't just bundle
1306
01:12:44,480 --> 01:12:50,480
mortgages. It separated risk from
1307
01:12:47,280 --> 01:12:52,480
reality. For the first time, financial
1308
01:12:50,480 --> 01:12:55,440
value could travel faster than the
1309
01:12:52,480 --> 01:12:57,920
underlying economy that supported it. A
1310
01:12:55,440 --> 01:13:00,080
house in California became a line in a
1311
01:12:57,920 --> 01:13:03,760
spreadsheet in New York, which became a
1312
01:13:00,080 --> 01:13:05,679
yield sold to an investor in Tokyo. Risk
1313
01:13:03,760 --> 01:13:08,719
no longer lived where decisions were
1314
01:13:05,679 --> 01:13:11,040
made. It was abstracted, sliced,
1315
01:13:08,719 --> 01:13:14,000
repackaged, and distributed across the
1316
01:13:11,040 --> 01:13:16,239
system. This was the moment when finance
1317
01:13:14,000 --> 01:13:19,600
stopped reflecting the real economy and
1318
01:13:16,239 --> 01:13:21,920
began building a parallel one. A system
1319
01:13:19,600 --> 01:13:23,679
that could grow without limits as long
1320
01:13:21,920 --> 01:13:27,920
as everyone believed the models were
1321
01:13:23,679 --> 01:13:30,480
right. And for a while, they were.
1322
01:13:27,920 --> 01:13:33,120
By the early 80s, Larry was the golden
1323
01:13:30,480 --> 01:13:35,520
boy. He wasn't just hitting targets, he
1324
01:13:33,120 --> 01:13:37,679
was shattering them. In one year, his
1325
01:13:35,520 --> 01:13:39,760
department was responsible for nearly
1326
01:13:37,679 --> 01:13:42,880
onethird of First Boston's total
1327
01:13:39,760 --> 01:13:45,120
profits. At age 31, he became the
1328
01:13:42,880 --> 01:13:48,080
youngest managing director the firm had
1329
01:13:45,120 --> 01:13:50,560
ever seen. He was earning millions. He
1330
01:13:48,080 --> 01:13:53,440
was the successor, the prodigy, the man
1331
01:13:50,560 --> 01:13:56,080
who could do no wrong. He had moved to
1332
01:13:53,440 --> 01:13:58,480
his family to a sprawling estate. He was
1333
01:13:56,080 --> 01:14:03,080
flying private. He had conquered the
1334
01:13:58,480 --> 01:14:03,080
gritco battlefield of Manhattan.
1335
01:14:03,600 --> 01:14:08,080
But in the world of high finance, the
1336
01:14:05,840 --> 01:14:11,080
higher you fly, the thinner the air
1337
01:14:08,080 --> 01:14:11,080
becomes.
1338
01:14:12,560 --> 01:14:16,880
Larry was making hundreds of millions
1339
01:14:14,560 --> 01:14:19,679
for the bank. But there was a ghost in
1340
01:14:16,880 --> 01:14:23,600
the machine, a variable he hadn't
1341
01:14:19,679 --> 01:14:25,920
accounted for. The year was 1986.
1342
01:14:23,600 --> 01:14:28,719
Larry had made a massive bet on interest
1343
01:14:25,920 --> 01:14:32,239
rates. He believed they would stay
1344
01:14:28,719 --> 01:14:34,239
stable. He was so sure of his math, so
1345
01:14:32,239 --> 01:14:36,239
confident in his track record that he
1346
01:14:34,239 --> 01:14:38,560
didn't realize the ground was shifting
1347
01:14:36,239 --> 01:14:40,560
beneath his feet.
1348
01:14:38,560 --> 01:14:42,800
In just 3 months, the Golden Boy
1349
01:14:40,560 --> 01:14:46,560
department went from profit to a
1350
01:14:42,800 --> 01:14:49,760
catastrophic $100 million loss. In the
1351
01:14:46,560 --> 01:14:52,560
80s, 100 million wasn't just a loss, it
1352
01:14:49,760 --> 01:14:54,640
was a national scandal. Overnight, the
1353
01:14:52,560 --> 01:14:57,520
man who was supposed to run the bank was
1354
01:14:54,640 --> 01:14:59,440
a pariah. The phones stopped ringing.
1355
01:14:57,520 --> 01:15:02,080
The friends on the trading floor looked
1356
01:14:59,440 --> 01:15:04,320
away when he walked by. He had been the
1357
01:15:02,080 --> 01:15:07,120
smartest man in the room until he
1358
01:15:04,320 --> 01:15:09,280
wasn't. He would later describe this
1359
01:15:07,120 --> 01:15:12,480
moment as the most painful experience of
1360
01:15:09,280 --> 01:15:15,120
my life. But as he sat in the ruins of
1361
01:15:12,480 --> 01:15:17,520
his reputation, Larry Frink wasn't just
1362
01:15:15,120 --> 01:15:19,679
mourning his career. He was obsessed
1363
01:15:17,520 --> 01:15:22,719
with one question.
1364
01:15:19,679 --> 01:15:25,280
How did I not see the risk?
1365
01:15:22,719 --> 01:15:27,920
That obsession, the fear of the unknown
1366
01:15:25,280 --> 01:15:31,239
variable would become the cornerstone of
1367
01:15:27,920 --> 01:15:31,239
Black Rockck.
1368
01:15:34,400 --> 01:15:40,560
By 1983, Larry wasn't just selling
1369
01:15:37,199 --> 01:15:45,000
bonds, he was a pioneer of the CMO,
1370
01:15:40,560 --> 01:15:45,000
collateralized mortgage obligation.
1371
01:15:45,280 --> 01:15:50,159
Think of it like a waterfall. Larry took
1372
01:15:48,000 --> 01:15:53,120
thousands of mortgages and sliced them
1373
01:15:50,159 --> 01:15:56,239
into tranches. Some investors took the
1374
01:15:53,120 --> 01:15:59,360
top slice, low risk, low reward. Others
1375
01:15:56,239 --> 01:16:01,199
took the bottom, high risk, high yield.
1376
01:15:59,360 --> 01:16:05,040
It was a masterpiece of financial
1377
01:16:01,199 --> 01:16:07,840
engineering. It made the illquid liquid.
1378
01:16:05,040 --> 01:16:10,080
It made First Boston the center of the
1379
01:16:07,840 --> 01:16:12,320
universe.
1380
01:16:10,080 --> 01:16:15,199
But there was a flaw, a tiny
1381
01:16:12,320 --> 01:16:17,199
mathematical ghost in his models.
1382
01:16:15,199 --> 01:16:19,520
Larry's team had predicted that interest
1383
01:16:17,199 --> 01:16:22,000
rates would rise, and they hedged their
1384
01:16:19,520 --> 01:16:25,040
bets accordingly. But in the second
1385
01:16:22,000 --> 01:16:27,360
quarter of 1986, rates did something the
1386
01:16:25,040 --> 01:16:28,960
models said was impossible. They
1387
01:16:27,360 --> 01:16:30,719
plummeted
1388
01:16:28,960 --> 01:16:33,040
because they didn't have a system to
1389
01:16:30,719 --> 01:16:35,840
track their real-time exposure. Larry
1390
01:16:33,040 --> 01:16:38,880
was flying blind. He was the pilot of a
1391
01:16:35,840 --> 01:16:41,120
Boeing 747 trying to land in a storm
1392
01:16:38,880 --> 01:16:43,520
using nothing but a compass and a
1393
01:16:41,120 --> 01:16:45,600
prayer. By the time he realized the
1394
01:16:43,520 --> 01:16:49,679
engines were on fire, the plane had
1395
01:16:45,600 --> 01:16:53,000
already hit the mountain. $100 million.
1396
01:16:49,679 --> 01:16:53,000
All gone.
1397
01:16:55,199 --> 01:17:00,560
He wasn't just fired, he was erased.
1398
01:16:58,400 --> 01:17:03,520
After the dust settled, Larry found
1399
01:17:00,560 --> 01:17:06,560
himself in a peculiar kind of exile. He
1400
01:17:03,520 --> 01:17:09,280
wasn't just unemployed, he was haunted.
1401
01:17:06,560 --> 01:17:11,600
He realized that the $100 million loss
1402
01:17:09,280 --> 01:17:15,199
wasn't a failure of talent, it was a
1403
01:17:11,600 --> 01:17:17,920
failure of vision. What happened in 1986
1404
01:17:15,199 --> 01:17:20,960
wasn't a personal miscalculation.
1405
01:17:17,920 --> 01:17:23,360
It was a systemic blindness.
1406
01:17:20,960 --> 01:17:26,159
At the time, every major financial
1407
01:17:23,360 --> 01:17:29,199
institution operated the same way.
1408
01:17:26,159 --> 01:17:31,920
Positions were fragmented. Exposure was
1409
01:17:29,199 --> 01:17:35,040
estimated, not measured. Risk was
1410
01:17:31,920 --> 01:17:37,280
inferred after the fact. Banks knew what
1411
01:17:35,040 --> 01:17:40,320
they bought yesterday, but not what it
1412
01:17:37,280 --> 01:17:42,960
was worth right now. The system rewarded
1413
01:17:40,320 --> 01:17:45,520
speed, volume, and confidence. not
1414
01:17:42,960 --> 01:17:48,159
understanding. And as long as markets
1415
01:17:45,520 --> 01:17:50,560
moved slowly, the illusion held. But
1416
01:17:48,159 --> 01:17:53,520
once volatility entered the market, no
1417
01:17:50,560 --> 01:17:56,560
one truly knew where the danger was or
1418
01:17:53,520 --> 01:17:59,199
how large it had become. Larry didn't
1419
01:17:56,560 --> 01:18:01,199
just lose money. He realized the entire
1420
01:17:59,199 --> 01:18:04,159
financial system was flying without
1421
01:18:01,199 --> 01:18:07,199
instruments. Wall Street was essentially
1422
01:18:04,159 --> 01:18:11,199
a collection of blind giants. Every
1423
01:18:07,199 --> 01:18:13,280
major firm, Goldman, Layman, Meil Lynch,
1424
01:18:11,199 --> 01:18:17,679
was standing just one inch away from
1425
01:18:13,280 --> 01:18:19,600
total collapse at any given second. Why?
1426
01:18:17,679 --> 01:18:22,560
Because they didn't actually know what
1427
01:18:19,600 --> 01:18:25,360
they owned. This was information
1428
01:18:22,560 --> 01:18:27,760
blindness.
1429
01:18:25,360 --> 01:18:30,159
In the 1980s, you knew what you bought
1430
01:18:27,760 --> 01:18:33,360
yesterday, but you had no idea what it
1431
01:18:30,159 --> 01:18:35,920
was worth right now. A sudden shift in
1432
01:18:33,360 --> 01:18:38,239
interest rates or a political coup
1433
01:18:35,920 --> 01:18:40,080
across the ocean could vaporize a
1434
01:18:38,239 --> 01:18:42,960
billion dollars before the morning
1435
01:18:40,080 --> 01:18:46,320
coffee was poured.
1436
01:18:42,960 --> 01:18:48,960
Larry understood a terrifying truth. The
1437
01:18:46,320 --> 01:18:52,239
entire global financial system was built
1438
01:18:48,960 --> 01:18:54,080
on a foundation of guesswork.
1439
01:18:52,239 --> 01:18:57,520
It hit him with the force of an
1440
01:18:54,080 --> 01:18:59,360
epiphany. If he could build a brain, a
1441
01:18:57,520 --> 01:19:01,840
machine that could see the risk that
1442
01:18:59,360 --> 01:19:04,560
humans were too slow to calculate, he
1443
01:19:01,840 --> 01:19:06,400
wouldn't just be a banker. He would be
1444
01:19:04,560 --> 01:19:09,280
the only man in the world with a
1445
01:19:06,400 --> 01:19:11,360
flashlight in a dark room. This
1446
01:19:09,280 --> 01:19:14,080
realization changed his entire
1447
01:19:11,360 --> 01:19:16,159
philosophy of investing. He stopped
1448
01:19:14,080 --> 01:19:18,719
looking for the big score and started
1449
01:19:16,159 --> 01:19:21,120
looking for the safe passage. He didn't
1450
01:19:18,719 --> 01:19:24,719
want to beat the market anymore. He
1451
01:19:21,120 --> 01:19:27,120
wanted to measure it.
1452
01:19:24,719 --> 01:19:30,159
He would later tell his partners, "We
1453
01:19:27,120 --> 01:19:32,800
are never going to be blind again."
1454
01:19:30,159 --> 01:19:35,760
That vow, born from the humiliation of
1455
01:19:32,800 --> 01:19:38,880
1986, became the blueprint for a new
1456
01:19:35,760 --> 01:19:41,520
kind of firm. A firm that didn't rely on
1457
01:19:38,880 --> 01:19:46,199
the ego of a star trader, but on the
1458
01:19:41,520 --> 01:19:46,199
cold, unblinking eye of technology.
1459
01:19:51,040 --> 01:19:56,960
Larry Frink was a man with a vision, but
1460
01:19:53,760 --> 01:19:58,880
he was also a man with a tainted resume.
1461
01:19:56,960 --> 01:20:01,600
To the rest of Wall Street, he was the
1462
01:19:58,880 --> 01:20:03,679
guy who lost a h 100red million. But to
1463
01:20:01,600 --> 01:20:06,320
a small circle of insiders at First
1464
01:20:03,679 --> 01:20:09,760
Boston, he was the only one who truly
1465
01:20:06,320 --> 01:20:12,560
understood why it happened. He began
1466
01:20:09,760 --> 01:20:15,120
making calls. He wasn't offering high
1467
01:20:12,560 --> 01:20:17,920
salaries or flashy offices. He was
1468
01:20:15,120 --> 01:20:20,080
offering a chance to build a holy grail,
1469
01:20:17,920 --> 01:20:22,320
a financial firm where technology
1470
01:20:20,080 --> 01:20:25,440
governed the ego, not the other way
1471
01:20:22,320 --> 01:20:27,600
round. And he eventually found the right
1472
01:20:25,440 --> 01:20:30,600
people to help him build that holy
1473
01:20:27,600 --> 01:20:30,600
grail.
1474
01:20:31,199 --> 01:20:37,440
Rob Capito, the enforcer, a powerhouse
1475
01:20:35,360 --> 01:20:40,080
trader who knew the plumbing of the bomb
1476
01:20:37,440 --> 01:20:42,080
market better than anyone else. He
1477
01:20:40,080 --> 01:20:45,679
provided the muscle Larry needed to
1478
01:20:42,080 --> 01:20:48,800
execute the vision. Ben Golib, the
1479
01:20:45,679 --> 01:20:51,520
Oracle, a PhD with a mind like a
1480
01:20:48,800 --> 01:20:54,239
supercomput. While other bankers were
1481
01:20:51,520 --> 01:20:56,719
focused on lunch reservations, Golib was
1482
01:20:54,239 --> 01:20:59,440
thinking about value at risk and Monte
1483
01:20:56,719 --> 01:21:02,960
Carlo simulations.
1484
01:20:59,440 --> 01:21:05,360
Susan Wagner, the mastermind,
1485
01:21:02,960 --> 01:21:07,040
brilliant, calculating, and capable of
1486
01:21:05,360 --> 01:21:09,280
seeing structural flaws in a
1487
01:21:07,040 --> 01:21:11,600
multi-billion dollar merger before a
1488
01:21:09,280 --> 01:21:14,159
single paper was signed. Along with
1489
01:21:11,600 --> 01:21:16,480
Barbara Novik, Ralph Schlostein, Hugh
1490
01:21:14,159 --> 01:21:19,600
Freighter, and Keith Anderson, they
1491
01:21:16,480 --> 01:21:21,360
became the original eight. Frink wasn't
1492
01:21:19,600 --> 01:21:24,719
looking for bankers who would run after
1493
01:21:21,360 --> 01:21:27,840
the money. He wanted architects, people
1494
01:21:24,719 --> 01:21:29,760
who were tired of being blind.
1495
01:21:27,840 --> 01:21:32,480
When he found them, they met in living
1496
01:21:29,760 --> 01:21:34,320
rooms and coffee shops. They had the
1497
01:21:32,480 --> 01:21:37,360
blueprints for a system they called
1498
01:21:34,320 --> 01:21:40,080
Aladdin, an acronym for asset,
1499
01:21:37,360 --> 01:21:43,040
liability, debt, and derivative
1500
01:21:40,080 --> 01:21:45,600
investment network. It was designed to
1501
01:21:43,040 --> 01:21:48,960
be the unblinking eye Larry had dreamed
1502
01:21:45,600 --> 01:21:52,080
of in his exile. But a brain without a
1503
01:21:48,960 --> 01:21:54,320
body is just a dream. To build Aladdin,
1504
01:21:52,080 --> 01:21:57,040
they needed hardware. They needed
1505
01:21:54,320 --> 01:21:59,040
offices. And most importantly, they
1506
01:21:57,040 --> 01:22:02,400
needed the one thing Larry's reputation
1507
01:21:59,040 --> 01:22:04,480
had cost him. Capital. Aladdin was not
1508
01:22:02,400 --> 01:22:07,280
designed to beat the market. It was
1509
01:22:04,480 --> 01:22:09,520
designed to understand it. But its real
1510
01:22:07,280 --> 01:22:13,840
power emerged when others started using
1511
01:22:09,520 --> 01:22:16,880
it. Banks, insurance companies, pension
1512
01:22:13,840 --> 01:22:19,040
funds, sovereign institutions. As
1513
01:22:16,880 --> 01:22:22,560
Aladdin spread, something subtle
1514
01:22:19,040 --> 01:22:24,719
happened. Risk stopped being subjective.
1515
01:22:22,560 --> 01:22:26,880
It became standardized.
1516
01:22:24,719 --> 01:22:29,199
When Aladdin flagged an asset as
1517
01:22:26,880 --> 01:22:32,199
dangerous, entire markets adjusted
1518
01:22:29,199 --> 01:22:32,199
accordingly.
1519
01:22:32,400 --> 01:22:37,679
Not because Larry Frink said so, but
1520
01:22:34,800 --> 01:22:39,600
because the system trusted the model. At
1521
01:22:37,679 --> 01:22:42,000
that point, Black Rockck was no longer
1522
01:22:39,600 --> 01:22:45,040
just managing money. It was helping
1523
01:22:42,000 --> 01:22:47,440
define how risk itself was understood.
1524
01:22:45,040 --> 01:22:51,159
And whoever defines risk defines the
1525
01:22:47,440 --> 01:22:51,159
boundaries of decisionmaking.
1526
01:22:59,600 --> 01:23:05,040
Enter Steven Schwartzman. In 1988,
1527
01:23:02,960 --> 01:23:08,159
Schwartzman was the rising king of
1528
01:23:05,040 --> 01:23:11,840
private equity. His firm Blackstone was
1529
01:23:08,159 --> 01:23:14,480
aggressive, wealthy, and hungry.
1530
01:23:11,840 --> 01:23:17,600
The meeting was tense. Schwartzman knew
1531
01:23:14,480 --> 01:23:21,120
Larry's history. He knew about the 1986
1532
01:23:17,600 --> 01:23:24,880
disaster. But Larry didn't hide from it.
1533
01:23:21,120 --> 01:23:26,880
He used it as his primary selling point.
1534
01:23:24,880 --> 01:23:29,199
Because Larry had seen the end of the
1535
01:23:26,880 --> 01:23:31,760
world already, he knew exactly how the
1536
01:23:29,199 --> 01:23:33,600
lights went out. And because of that, he
1537
01:23:31,760 --> 01:23:35,679
was the only one who knew how to keep
1538
01:23:33,600 --> 01:23:38,400
them on.
1539
01:23:35,679 --> 01:23:40,400
Larry's pitch was revolutionary. He
1540
01:23:38,400 --> 01:23:43,600
didn't want to start a hedge fund. He
1541
01:23:40,400 --> 01:23:45,360
wanted to create a fiduciary company, a
1542
01:23:43,600 --> 01:23:47,600
firm that managed other people's money
1543
01:23:45,360 --> 01:23:50,880
with the same technological rigor
1544
01:23:47,600 --> 01:23:53,280
usually reserved for NASA. He asked for
1545
01:23:50,880 --> 01:23:56,000
a $5 million credit line and a
1546
01:23:53,280 --> 01:23:59,040
partnership. In exchange, Schwartzman
1547
01:23:56,000 --> 01:24:01,199
would own 50% of the new venture. He
1548
01:23:59,040 --> 01:24:03,679
knew he was buying cheap because he was
1549
01:24:01,199 --> 01:24:06,159
buying on a distressed asset, Frink's
1550
01:24:03,679 --> 01:24:08,080
damaged reputation.
1551
01:24:06,159 --> 01:24:10,159
But he did so betting on the idea that
1552
01:24:08,080 --> 01:24:14,719
the experience had turned Larry Frink
1553
01:24:10,159 --> 01:24:18,080
into some sort of financial genius.
1554
01:24:14,719 --> 01:24:20,719
The deal was done. On a Friday in March
1555
01:24:18,080 --> 01:24:22,480
1988, the team moved into a single
1556
01:24:20,719 --> 01:24:24,080
cramped room within Blackstone's
1557
01:24:22,480 --> 01:24:26,719
offices.
1558
01:24:24,080 --> 01:24:28,800
They were five computers, a few folding
1559
01:24:26,719 --> 01:24:31,520
chairs, and a mountain of cables on the
1560
01:24:28,800 --> 01:24:33,840
floor. They were under the Blackstone
1561
01:24:31,520 --> 01:24:36,320
umbrella, but Larry knew that this was
1562
01:24:33,840 --> 01:24:39,760
just a temporary shelter. He didn't just
1563
01:24:36,320 --> 01:24:42,480
want a department, he wanted an empire.
1564
01:24:39,760 --> 01:24:44,639
He had the money, he had the team. And
1565
01:24:42,480 --> 01:24:46,719
in the corner of that small room, the
1566
01:24:44,639 --> 01:24:49,520
first lines of code for Aladdin were
1567
01:24:46,719 --> 01:24:52,400
being written.
1568
01:24:49,520 --> 01:24:54,400
The information blindness was over. The
1569
01:24:52,400 --> 01:24:58,920
era of Black Rock, though it didn't have
1570
01:24:54,400 --> 01:24:58,920
that name yet, had begun.
1571
01:25:03,040 --> 01:25:08,159
The first office of Blackstone Financial
1572
01:25:05,280 --> 01:25:11,120
Management wasn't a glass tower. It was
1573
01:25:08,159 --> 01:25:13,360
a glorified closet. Because of the heat
1574
01:25:11,120 --> 01:25:15,120
generated by the early Sun Micro
1575
01:25:13,360 --> 01:25:16,880
Systemystems workstations, the
1576
01:25:15,120 --> 01:25:21,440
temperature in the room rarely dropped
1577
01:25:16,880 --> 01:25:23,199
below 80° 27° C.
1578
01:25:21,440 --> 01:25:25,679
While the rest of the Blackstone group
1579
01:25:23,199 --> 01:25:28,159
was out at expensive lunches closing
1580
01:25:25,679 --> 01:25:32,480
leveraged buyouts, Larry's original
1581
01:25:28,159 --> 01:25:34,800
eight were building a digital fortress.
1582
01:25:32,480 --> 01:25:37,199
They were the weirdos in the basement.
1583
01:25:34,800 --> 01:25:40,719
It was here that the name Aladdin became
1584
01:25:37,199 --> 01:25:43,520
a living thing. Every day, Ben Golab and
1585
01:25:40,719 --> 01:25:46,560
his team fed it data. Interest rates,
1586
01:25:43,520 --> 01:25:48,320
housing prices, historical crashes. They
1587
01:25:46,560 --> 01:25:53,719
were teaching the machine to be afraid
1588
01:25:48,320 --> 01:25:53,719
of everything Larry hadn't seen in 1986.
1589
01:25:57,360 --> 01:26:02,560
By 1992, the department inside
1590
01:26:00,080 --> 01:26:05,360
Blackstone was no longer a startup. It
1591
01:26:02,560 --> 01:26:08,639
was a powerhouse. Larry's team was
1592
01:26:05,360 --> 01:26:10,320
managing $17 billion.
1593
01:26:08,639 --> 01:26:12,639
They weren't just a side project
1594
01:26:10,320 --> 01:26:15,600
anymore. They were a significant engine
1595
01:26:12,639 --> 01:26:18,000
of Blackstone's growth. But with success
1596
01:26:15,600 --> 01:26:20,239
came a toxic byproduct,
1597
01:26:18,000 --> 01:26:22,880
identity confusion.
1598
01:26:20,239 --> 01:26:24,480
Clients were getting confused. They
1599
01:26:22,880 --> 01:26:27,040
would call Blackstone looking for
1600
01:26:24,480 --> 01:26:29,440
Larry's bond expertise or call Larry
1601
01:26:27,040 --> 01:26:32,000
looking for Schwarzman's buyouts. But
1602
01:26:29,440 --> 01:26:34,639
the friction went deeper than a name. It
1603
01:26:32,000 --> 01:26:37,120
was a war of philosophies. Schwartzman
1604
01:26:34,639 --> 01:26:40,400
was a dealmaker. He wanted to own
1605
01:26:37,120 --> 01:26:43,920
companies. Think was a fiduciary. He
1606
01:26:40,400 --> 01:26:46,080
wanted to manage risk for others.
1607
01:26:43,920 --> 01:26:48,400
The tension was similar to having two
1608
01:26:46,080 --> 01:26:50,800
predators in a cage too small to fit
1609
01:26:48,400 --> 01:26:53,840
both. The breaking point came over
1610
01:26:50,800 --> 01:26:56,159
equity. Larry wanted to use stock to
1611
01:26:53,840 --> 01:26:59,280
attract and keep the original eight and
1612
01:26:56,159 --> 01:27:01,440
new talent. Schwarzman holding 50% of
1613
01:26:59,280 --> 01:27:04,000
the firm didn't want to dilute his
1614
01:27:01,440 --> 01:27:06,159
state. The partnership that saved
1615
01:27:04,000 --> 01:27:12,159
Larry's career was now suffocating his
1616
01:27:06,159 --> 01:27:14,239
vision. In 1994, they reached a deal.
1617
01:27:12,159 --> 01:27:18,080
Schwarzman agreed to sell Blackstone
1618
01:27:14,239 --> 01:27:20,159
steak for $240 million. At the time, it
1619
01:27:18,080 --> 01:27:22,400
seemed like a win for Schwarzman, a
1620
01:27:20,159 --> 01:27:25,199
massive return on his $5 million
1621
01:27:22,400 --> 01:27:27,600
investment. It wasn't just about money.
1622
01:27:25,199 --> 01:27:29,840
It was about the spotlight. Schwarzman
1623
01:27:27,600 --> 01:27:32,400
was the king of Wall Street, but his
1624
01:27:29,840 --> 01:27:34,960
subtenant, Larry Frink, was the one the
1625
01:27:32,400 --> 01:27:38,480
New York Times wanted to interview. But
1626
01:27:34,960 --> 01:27:40,560
for Larry, it was the price of freedom.
1627
01:27:38,480 --> 01:27:42,800
Schwartzman would later call selling
1628
01:27:40,560 --> 01:27:45,600
Black Rock the worst mistake of my
1629
01:27:42,800 --> 01:27:48,159
career. For Larry, the divorce was the
1630
01:27:45,600 --> 01:27:50,639
moment the training wheels came off. He
1631
01:27:48,159 --> 01:27:53,679
was no longer under anyone's umbrella.
1632
01:27:50,639 --> 01:27:55,280
He was the CEO of an independent firm.
1633
01:27:53,679 --> 01:27:57,199
Now he just had to prove he could
1634
01:27:55,280 --> 01:28:00,199
survive the coming storm of the late
1635
01:27:57,199 --> 01:28:00,199
'9s.
1636
01:28:08,000 --> 01:28:13,840
It is 2008. The financial world was
1637
01:28:11,280 --> 01:28:16,080
experiencing a heart attack. The
1638
01:28:13,840 --> 01:28:18,400
financial smoothies that mortgage back
1639
01:28:16,080 --> 01:28:20,639
securities Larry had helped create 30
1640
01:28:18,400 --> 01:28:23,440
years earlier had turned into a global
1641
01:28:20,639 --> 01:28:25,760
poison. Banks didn't know what they
1642
01:28:23,440 --> 01:28:28,320
owned. And more importantly, they didn't
1643
01:28:25,760 --> 01:28:30,480
know what their neighbors owned. Trust
1644
01:28:28,320 --> 01:28:32,480
had evaporated.
1645
01:28:30,480 --> 01:28:34,159
When the US government realized the
1646
01:28:32,480 --> 01:28:36,320
economy was on the brink of a total
1647
01:28:34,159 --> 01:28:40,159
blackout, they didn't call Goldman
1648
01:28:36,320 --> 01:28:42,560
Sachs. They didn't call JP Morgan. While
1649
01:28:40,159 --> 01:28:44,560
the CEOs of Layman and Merrill were
1650
01:28:42,560 --> 01:28:46,639
begging for government checks, Larry
1651
01:28:44,560 --> 01:28:48,880
Frink was the one the government called
1652
01:28:46,639 --> 01:28:51,120
to write the checks.
1653
01:28:48,880 --> 01:28:53,600
He was the only titan left standing with
1654
01:28:51,120 --> 01:28:55,679
a clean balance sheet.
1655
01:28:53,600 --> 01:28:57,840
The United States government didn't just
1656
01:28:55,679 --> 01:28:59,679
seek advice, it delegated
1657
01:28:57,840 --> 01:29:01,600
responsibility.
1658
01:28:59,679 --> 01:29:04,480
Black Rockck was tasked with valuing
1659
01:29:01,600 --> 01:29:06,719
assets no one understood, managing risks
1660
01:29:04,480 --> 01:29:08,719
no one could measure and stabilizing
1661
01:29:06,719 --> 01:29:11,199
markets that were collapsing in real
1662
01:29:08,719 --> 01:29:13,600
time.
1663
01:29:11,199 --> 01:29:16,719
This wasn't a bailout. It was an
1664
01:29:13,600 --> 01:29:18,480
outsourcing of core sovereign functions.
1665
01:29:16,719 --> 01:29:20,480
For the first time, a private firm
1666
01:29:18,480 --> 01:29:23,520
played a central role in maintaining
1667
01:29:20,480 --> 01:29:25,440
global financial stability. Not through
1668
01:29:23,520 --> 01:29:27,840
political authority, but through
1669
01:29:25,440 --> 01:29:30,400
technical capability.
1670
01:29:27,840 --> 01:29:33,280
From that moment on, power was no longer
1671
01:29:30,400 --> 01:29:35,280
just about laws and institutions. It was
1672
01:29:33,280 --> 01:29:37,520
about who had the tools to see the
1673
01:29:35,280 --> 01:29:39,920
system clearly.
1674
01:29:37,520 --> 01:29:42,719
Blackrock was hired to manage the toxic
1675
01:29:39,920 --> 01:29:45,040
waste of the crisis. They became the
1676
01:29:42,719 --> 01:29:48,000
official cleaner for the US government,
1677
01:29:45,040 --> 01:29:51,000
managing $130 billion of troubled
1678
01:29:48,000 --> 01:29:51,000
assets.
1679
01:29:51,120 --> 01:29:55,840
Suddenly, Larry Frink was the most
1680
01:29:53,520 --> 01:29:57,520
powerful man in the room, acting as an
1681
01:29:55,840 --> 01:29:59,040
adviser to the president and the
1682
01:29:57,520 --> 01:30:01,440
treasury.
1683
01:29:59,040 --> 01:30:04,239
But while he was saving the system, he
1684
01:30:01,440 --> 01:30:06,480
saw a once-ina-lifetime opportunity to
1685
01:30:04,239 --> 01:30:09,040
dominate it. In the middle of the
1686
01:30:06,480 --> 01:30:11,840
carnage, Barclay's bank in the UK was
1687
01:30:09,040 --> 01:30:14,080
desperate for cash. They needed to sell
1688
01:30:11,840 --> 01:30:16,159
their crown jewel, a division called
1689
01:30:14,080 --> 01:30:18,560
Barclay's Global Investors, which
1690
01:30:16,159 --> 01:30:20,320
included a revolutionary product called
1691
01:30:18,560 --> 01:30:22,159
Eyesshares.
1692
01:30:20,320 --> 01:30:24,960
Eyesshares represented passive
1693
01:30:22,159 --> 01:30:28,000
investing. ETFs that track the whole
1694
01:30:24,960 --> 01:30:29,920
market rather than trying to beat it. It
1695
01:30:28,000 --> 01:30:32,639
was the ultimate expression of Larry's
1696
01:30:29,920 --> 01:30:35,280
philosophy. Stop betting on stars and
1697
01:30:32,639 --> 01:30:39,600
start owning the system. It was a
1698
01:30:35,280 --> 01:30:42,000
massive $13.5 billion gamble.
1699
01:30:39,600 --> 01:30:44,719
If the markets continue to fall, deal
1700
01:30:42,000 --> 01:30:46,960
could sink Black Rockck. But Larry knew
1701
01:30:44,719 --> 01:30:49,040
something the others didn't. He had
1702
01:30:46,960 --> 01:30:51,280
looked into the eye of Aladdin, and
1703
01:30:49,040 --> 01:30:54,080
Aladdin told him that the bottom was
1704
01:30:51,280 --> 01:30:57,040
near. With the acquisition of Eyesshares
1705
01:30:54,080 --> 01:30:59,679
in 2009, Black Rockck doubled its size
1706
01:30:57,040 --> 01:31:02,400
overnight. They weren't just a bond shop
1707
01:30:59,679 --> 01:31:05,360
anymore. They were now the largest money
1708
01:31:02,400 --> 01:31:08,080
manager on the planet. They had gone
1709
01:31:05,360 --> 01:31:10,159
into the crisis as a respected firm.
1710
01:31:08,080 --> 01:31:13,960
They came out of it as the shadow
1711
01:31:10,159 --> 01:31:13,960
government of finance.
1712
01:31:18,639 --> 01:31:24,000
By 2012, Larry Frink had built the
1713
01:31:21,280 --> 01:31:26,560
machine. He had the assets, the data,
1714
01:31:24,000 --> 01:31:29,840
and the influence. But he realized that
1715
01:31:26,560 --> 01:31:31,760
being king of Wall Street wasn't enough.
1716
01:31:29,840 --> 01:31:35,040
He wanted to change the way the world
1717
01:31:31,760 --> 01:31:36,800
did business. Every January, a ritual
1718
01:31:35,040 --> 01:31:39,920
began that would send tremors through
1719
01:31:36,800 --> 01:31:42,320
boardrooms from Detroit to Frankfurt.
1720
01:31:39,920 --> 01:31:44,800
Larry started writing letters. They
1721
01:31:42,320 --> 01:31:48,679
weren't just annual reports. They were
1722
01:31:44,800 --> 01:31:48,679
the Black Rockck Manifestos.
1723
01:31:49,360 --> 01:31:55,280
In 2018, he dropped a bomb. He told the
1724
01:31:53,120 --> 01:31:57,440
world's CEOs that if they wanted Black
1725
01:31:55,280 --> 01:32:00,560
Rockck's money, they had to prove they
1726
01:31:57,440 --> 01:32:03,360
served a social purpose. He wasn't just
1727
01:32:00,560 --> 01:32:07,280
asking for profits. He was asking for a
1728
01:32:03,360 --> 01:32:10,239
soul. He was mainstreaming ESG,
1729
01:32:07,280 --> 01:32:13,360
environmental, social, and governance.
1730
01:32:10,239 --> 01:32:16,400
And he was doing it with a $10 trillion
1731
01:32:13,360 --> 01:32:20,000
hammer. But Larry's new gospel didn't
1732
01:32:16,400 --> 01:32:21,920
sit well with everyone. By 2021, the
1733
01:32:20,000 --> 01:32:25,520
golden boy was finding himself in the
1734
01:32:21,920 --> 01:32:28,719
middle of a two-front war.
1735
01:32:25,520 --> 01:32:32,560
The ESG debate was never cultural. It
1736
01:32:28,719 --> 01:32:34,480
was economic. At its core, ESG was about
1737
01:32:32,560 --> 01:32:37,040
risk management, anticipating
1738
01:32:34,480 --> 01:32:39,280
regulation, climate disruption, and
1739
01:32:37,040 --> 01:32:41,440
social instability.
1740
01:32:39,280 --> 01:32:44,320
For Black Rockck, ignoring those factors
1741
01:32:41,440 --> 01:32:46,800
wasn't neutral. It was dangerous. But
1742
01:32:44,320 --> 01:32:49,520
when capital begins to price the future,
1743
01:32:46,800 --> 01:32:52,400
it also begins to shape it. That's why
1744
01:32:49,520 --> 01:32:55,280
the backlash was so intense.
1745
01:32:52,400 --> 01:32:57,199
To the left, Larry was a hypocrite. They
1746
01:32:55,280 --> 01:32:59,360
called him a greenwasher because Black
1747
01:32:57,199 --> 01:33:01,920
Rockck still held billions in oil and
1748
01:32:59,360 --> 01:33:04,000
gas stocks. To the right, he was a
1749
01:33:01,920 --> 01:33:05,920
globalist villain who was using other
1750
01:33:04,000 --> 01:33:08,800
people's money to push a radical
1751
01:33:05,920 --> 01:33:10,880
environmental agenda. The backlash
1752
01:33:08,800 --> 01:33:13,880
turned into a full-scale political
1753
01:33:10,880 --> 01:33:13,880
assault.
1754
01:33:13,920 --> 01:33:18,639
State treasurers in Florida, Texas, and
1755
01:33:16,400 --> 01:33:21,360
Mississippi began pulling billions out
1756
01:33:18,639 --> 01:33:24,000
of Black Rockck. They accused Larry of
1757
01:33:21,360 --> 01:33:26,159
boycotting energy and violating his duty
1758
01:33:24,000 --> 01:33:28,000
to investors.
1759
01:33:26,159 --> 01:33:30,719
For the first time, the man who had
1760
01:33:28,000 --> 01:33:36,040
mastered risk found himself in a risk he
1761
01:33:30,719 --> 01:33:36,040
couldn't calculate, the culture war.
1762
01:33:37,520 --> 01:33:42,480
He told a crowd in Aspen that he was
1763
01:33:39,760 --> 01:33:44,639
ashamed to be a part of the debate. He
1764
01:33:42,480 --> 01:33:47,600
even stopped using the term ESG
1765
01:33:44,639 --> 01:33:49,440
altogether, calling it weaponized.
1766
01:33:47,600 --> 01:33:52,239
He had tried to become the conscience of
1767
01:33:49,440 --> 01:33:55,040
capitalism. Instead, it became its most
1768
01:33:52,239 --> 01:33:57,120
controversial target. But even as the
1769
01:33:55,040 --> 01:34:02,000
politicians shouted and the protesters
1770
01:33:57,120 --> 01:34:03,760
marched, the assets kept growing.
1771
01:34:02,000 --> 01:34:05,840
Because in the end, whether you loved
1772
01:34:03,760 --> 01:34:09,800
him or hated him, you couldn't escape
1773
01:34:05,840 --> 01:34:09,800
the machine he built.
1774
01:34:17,679 --> 01:34:22,320
January 2026,
1775
01:34:20,000 --> 01:34:24,000
the number flashes on a terminal in
1776
01:34:22,320 --> 01:34:28,000
Black Rockck's Hudson Yards
1777
01:34:24,000 --> 01:34:31,120
headquarters. $14 trillion.
1778
01:34:28,000 --> 01:34:32,719
It is a number so vast it defies human
1779
01:34:31,120 --> 01:34:35,199
comprehension.
1780
01:34:32,719 --> 01:34:37,760
If Larry thinks assets under management
1781
01:34:35,199 --> 01:34:39,760
were a country's GDP, it would be the
1782
01:34:37,760 --> 01:34:42,239
third largest economy on Earth,
1783
01:34:39,760 --> 01:34:43,760
surpassed only by the United States and
1784
01:34:42,239 --> 01:34:46,000
China.
1785
01:34:43,760 --> 01:34:48,880
But as Larry looks out from his office,
1786
01:34:46,000 --> 01:34:50,719
he isn't looking at stock tickers. He is
1787
01:34:48,880 --> 01:34:53,719
looking at the very bones of
1788
01:34:50,719 --> 01:34:53,719
civilization.
1789
01:34:55,280 --> 01:35:01,679
In 2024, Larry made his final most
1790
01:34:58,719 --> 01:35:04,239
aggressive pivot. He realized that the
1791
01:35:01,679 --> 01:35:07,040
next decade won't be one with bits on a
1792
01:35:04,239 --> 01:35:10,239
screen, but with atoms in the ground.
1793
01:35:07,040 --> 01:35:12,719
With the 122.5 billion acquisition of
1794
01:35:10,239 --> 01:35:14,960
global infrastructure partners, Larry
1795
01:35:12,719 --> 01:35:18,480
signaled the end of the old Wall Street
1796
01:35:14,960 --> 01:35:20,880
era. Larry saw the AI revolution coming.
1797
01:35:18,480 --> 01:35:23,040
But he didn't buy the chip makers. He
1798
01:35:20,880 --> 01:35:26,040
bought the power plants that feed the
1799
01:35:23,040 --> 01:35:26,040
chips.
1800
01:35:28,880 --> 01:35:35,960
But every empire faces the same
1801
01:35:30,960 --> 01:35:35,960
inevitable question. Succession.
1802
01:35:37,360 --> 01:35:41,600
For years, Wall Street has whispered
1803
01:35:39,440 --> 01:35:44,880
about who could possibly replace the man
1804
01:35:41,600 --> 01:35:47,199
who is Black Rockck. Names like Rob
1805
01:35:44,880 --> 01:35:49,600
Capito, Mark Weirman, and Jennifer
1806
01:35:47,199 --> 01:35:52,639
Johnson swirl in the press. But the
1807
01:35:49,600 --> 01:35:55,360
truth is more complex. Larry hasn't just
1808
01:35:52,639 --> 01:35:57,679
built a company. He's built an organism.
1809
01:35:55,360 --> 01:36:00,480
A system where Aladdin, now a very
1810
01:35:57,679 --> 01:36:03,600
sophisticated AI entity, handles the
1811
01:36:00,480 --> 01:36:06,400
risk while a legion of 20,000 employees,
1812
01:36:03,600 --> 01:36:08,800
executes the vision. Aladdin is no
1813
01:36:06,400 --> 01:36:10,800
longer just a calculator. It is a
1814
01:36:08,800 --> 01:36:13,520
predictive engine that runs millions of
1815
01:36:10,800 --> 01:36:15,440
simulations every second, anticipating
1816
01:36:13,520 --> 01:36:19,199
everything from a war in the Middle East
1817
01:36:15,440 --> 01:36:21,679
to a crop failure in Brazil.
1818
01:36:19,199 --> 01:36:24,800
Some call him the king of the world.
1819
01:36:21,679 --> 01:36:27,040
Others call him the shadow architect.
1820
01:36:24,800 --> 01:36:29,120
But if you ask Larry, he'll tell you
1821
01:36:27,040 --> 01:36:31,679
he's still that kid from the Vanoise
1822
01:36:29,120 --> 01:36:35,480
shoe store just trying to make sure that
1823
01:36:31,679 --> 01:36:35,480
the maths add up.
1824
01:36:35,760 --> 01:36:40,080
He took the greatest humiliation of his
1825
01:36:37,840 --> 01:36:42,159
life and turned it into a shield for the
1826
01:36:40,080 --> 01:36:44,159
global economy.
1827
01:36:42,159 --> 01:36:46,880
He taught the world that profit without
1828
01:36:44,159 --> 01:36:52,000
a plan is just a gamble and that in the
1829
01:36:46,880 --> 01:36:54,000
dark the man with a flashlight is king.
1830
01:36:52,000 --> 01:36:56,960
There is one financial question the
1831
01:36:54,000 --> 01:36:59,600
system cannot answer. What happens when
1832
01:36:56,960 --> 01:37:02,000
everyone measures risk the same way?
1833
01:36:59,600 --> 01:37:04,400
When models converge. When assumptions
1834
01:37:02,000 --> 01:37:06,080
align. When diversity of judgment
1835
01:37:04,400 --> 01:37:08,400
disappears.
1836
01:37:06,080 --> 01:37:11,280
A system optimized for stability can
1837
01:37:08,400 --> 01:37:13,280
become fragile. Not because it is wrong,
1838
01:37:11,280 --> 01:37:14,880
but because it leaves no room for the
1839
01:37:13,280 --> 01:37:17,119
unexpected.
1840
01:37:14,880 --> 01:37:19,520
When the supervisor becomes invisible
1841
01:37:17,119 --> 01:37:22,639
and the rules are embedded in code,
1842
01:37:19,520 --> 01:37:25,920
accountability becomes harder to locate.
1843
01:37:22,639 --> 01:37:27,840
The system works until it doesn't. And
1844
01:37:25,920 --> 01:37:30,400
that's why Blackprop isn't just a
1845
01:37:27,840 --> 01:37:33,040
shareholder in your company. They are
1846
01:37:30,400 --> 01:37:35,840
the landlord of your power plant, the
1847
01:37:33,040 --> 01:37:38,239
owner of your airport, the architect of
1848
01:37:35,840 --> 01:37:40,239
your retirement. It is a level of
1849
01:37:38,239 --> 01:37:43,040
centralized influence the world has
1850
01:37:40,239 --> 01:37:46,239
never seen in a private individual.
1851
01:37:43,040 --> 01:37:48,400
Lawrence DFink didn't just build a bank.
1852
01:37:46,239 --> 01:37:50,000
He built the unblinking eye of
1853
01:37:48,400 --> 01:37:52,239
capitalism.
1854
01:37:50,000 --> 01:37:54,480
And as the world moves into the era of
1855
01:37:52,239 --> 01:37:57,360
AI, climate shift, and global
1856
01:37:54,480 --> 01:38:00,639
restructuring, one thing is certain.
1857
01:37:57,360 --> 01:38:05,239
Black Rock will be there watching,
1858
01:38:00,639 --> 01:38:05,239
calculating, and growing.
1859
01:39:25,199 --> 01:39:30,159
It's just a small plastic brick.
1860
01:39:28,639 --> 01:39:35,360
Lightweight,
1861
01:39:30,159 --> 01:39:39,600
simple, unchanged since 1958.
1862
01:39:35,360 --> 01:39:41,679
And yet, it has built entire universes.
1863
01:39:39,600 --> 01:39:44,159
Lego constructions truly take us back to
1864
01:39:41,679 --> 01:39:46,000
childhood.
1865
01:39:44,159 --> 01:39:48,480
But they stay with us throughout our
1866
01:39:46,000 --> 01:39:50,880
entire lives. From bedrooms to
1867
01:39:48,480 --> 01:39:55,119
boardrooms, from playgrounds to
1868
01:39:50,880 --> 01:39:57,600
Hollywood, Lego has shaped generations.
1869
01:39:55,119 --> 01:39:59,440
>> When I design something from scratch, I
1870
01:39:57,600 --> 01:40:01,840
start with an idea that occurs to me at
1871
01:39:59,440 --> 01:40:03,600
any time of day.
1872
01:40:01,840 --> 01:40:05,040
>> I try to build it with Lego and see what
1873
01:40:03,600 --> 01:40:07,679
I come up with.
1874
01:40:05,040 --> 01:40:12,480
>> In a global toy market worth more than
1875
01:40:07,679 --> 01:40:15,040
$120 billion, Lego stands alone. A
1876
01:40:12,480 --> 01:40:18,719
single company controlling nearly one in
1877
01:40:15,040 --> 01:40:20,960
every $10 spent on toys worldwide.
1878
01:40:18,719 --> 01:40:22,560
>> Lego holds a leading position worldwide,
1879
01:40:20,960 --> 01:40:24,159
recognized above all for its
1880
01:40:22,560 --> 01:40:26,400
playability.
1881
01:40:24,159 --> 01:40:30,480
>> What if the most beloved toy in the
1882
01:40:26,400 --> 01:40:32,800
world almost didn't exist?
1883
01:40:30,480 --> 01:40:35,520
Discover the incredible journey of a
1884
01:40:32,800 --> 01:40:37,520
small, struggling carpentry shop, the
1885
01:40:35,520 --> 01:40:39,360
dared to dream bigger than anyone
1886
01:40:37,520 --> 01:40:41,920
thought possible. H.
1887
01:40:39,360 --> 01:40:44,960
>> This is the untold story of the
1888
01:40:41,920 --> 01:40:48,000
visionary who built Lego,
1889
01:40:44,960 --> 01:40:51,280
transforming simple wooden bricks into a
1890
01:40:48,000 --> 01:40:54,159
multi-billion dollar empire and forever
1891
01:40:51,280 --> 01:40:56,400
changing how we play.
1892
01:40:54,159 --> 01:40:59,679
But none of this began with billiondoll
1893
01:40:56,400 --> 01:41:03,520
charts or cinematic universes.
1894
01:40:59,679 --> 01:41:06,800
It began with a carpenter with a vision.
1895
01:41:03,520 --> 01:41:09,920
In a tiny Danish village, one man had a
1896
01:41:06,800 --> 01:41:12,920
dream. Building toys out of scraps of
1897
01:41:09,920 --> 01:41:12,920
wood.
1898
01:41:19,199 --> 01:41:26,000
Ole Christensen was born in 1891 in
1899
01:41:23,040 --> 01:41:29,920
western Denmark, a place defined by
1900
01:41:26,000 --> 01:41:32,639
silence, soil, and hard work.
1901
01:41:29,920 --> 01:41:35,440
He grew up poor like most children in
1902
01:41:32,639 --> 01:41:38,400
the Jutland countryside, but he learned
1903
01:41:35,440 --> 01:41:42,400
the value of craftsmanship early. When
1904
01:41:38,400 --> 01:41:45,119
you made something, it had to last.
1905
01:41:42,400 --> 01:41:47,360
He apprenticed as a carpenter. It was
1906
01:41:45,119 --> 01:41:50,960
not a really glamorous work, but
1907
01:41:47,360 --> 01:41:54,239
meticulous, honest, a craft that matched
1908
01:41:50,960 --> 01:41:56,639
Ola's character and manners.
1909
01:41:54,239 --> 01:42:00,080
Ola traveled through Denmark, Germany,
1910
01:41:56,639 --> 01:42:03,600
and Norway. Everywhere he went, he left
1911
01:42:00,080 --> 01:42:05,600
a reputation. Precise, patient,
1912
01:42:03,600 --> 01:42:09,199
relentless.
1913
01:42:05,600 --> 01:42:11,280
In 1916, Ole returned home and bought a
1914
01:42:09,199 --> 01:42:15,600
workshop in a place that barely existed
1915
01:42:11,280 --> 01:42:18,080
on the map. Bund. No shops, no train
1916
01:42:15,600 --> 01:42:20,159
station, just a handful of families
1917
01:42:18,080 --> 01:42:21,920
trying to survive the Danish winds.
1918
01:42:20,159 --> 01:42:25,040
>> Don't worry, I'm fine. I'm fine.
1919
01:42:21,920 --> 01:42:29,760
>> But 8 years later, disaster struck.
1920
01:42:25,040 --> 01:42:30,960
>> Oh. Oh. Oh no. In 1924, a fire tore
1921
01:42:29,760 --> 01:42:33,840
through his workshop.
1922
01:42:30,960 --> 01:42:38,639
>> Oh god, no. Please, no. Oh my god.
1923
01:42:33,840 --> 01:42:43,040
>> Everything burned. Tools, wood, orders,
1924
01:42:38,639 --> 01:42:47,199
and a lifetime of savings. All gone.
1925
01:42:43,040 --> 01:42:49,840
But O didn't quit. He rebuilt and
1926
01:42:47,199 --> 01:42:52,400
rebuilt bigger than before. Not because
1927
01:42:49,840 --> 01:42:56,320
it was safe, but because he refused to
1928
01:42:52,400 --> 01:42:59,199
let Band disappear into the wind.
1929
01:42:56,320 --> 01:43:01,760
Then came the Great Depression. Houses
1930
01:42:59,199 --> 01:43:05,760
weren't being built. Doors weren't being
1931
01:43:01,760 --> 01:43:08,400
ordered. Bills weren't being paid.
1932
01:43:05,760 --> 01:43:11,440
Olair had workers depending on him.
1933
01:43:08,400 --> 01:43:14,320
Families depending on him. So, he did
1934
01:43:11,440 --> 01:43:18,159
something unexpected. He began crafting
1935
01:43:14,320 --> 01:43:21,760
small wooden toys. They were simple,
1936
01:43:18,159 --> 01:43:24,800
durable, and beautiful.
1937
01:43:21,760 --> 01:43:28,480
Locals mocked him. a grown man making
1938
01:43:24,800 --> 01:43:31,520
toys for children. You'll never survive.
1939
01:43:28,480 --> 01:43:33,760
But Honor believed that play and fun was
1940
01:43:31,520 --> 01:43:36,960
a serious business.
1941
01:43:33,760 --> 01:43:40,560
In 1934, he held a contest to name the
1942
01:43:36,960 --> 01:43:42,080
new toy company. He chose a short word,
1943
01:43:40,560 --> 01:43:44,480
Lego.
1944
01:43:42,080 --> 01:43:48,000
It was not only a simple idea, but a
1945
01:43:44,480 --> 01:43:50,719
philosophy and a promise.
1946
01:43:48,000 --> 01:43:53,360
He hung a sign in the workshop. Only the
1947
01:43:50,719 --> 01:43:58,520
best is good enough. It wasn't
1948
01:43:53,360 --> 01:43:58,520
marketing. It was his identity.
1949
01:44:00,400 --> 01:44:06,480
>> Oh god, not again.
1950
01:44:01,840 --> 01:44:09,280
>> In 1942, Ola faced another fire. This
1951
01:44:06,480 --> 01:44:12,320
time it was bigger, more devastating.
1952
01:44:09,280 --> 01:44:15,760
Every blueprint, every toy, every dream
1953
01:44:12,320 --> 01:44:18,639
he had turned into smoke.
1954
01:44:15,760 --> 01:44:22,239
But he had built himself the hardship.
1955
01:44:18,639 --> 01:44:25,600
And once more he rebuilt the factory
1956
01:44:22,239 --> 01:44:29,760
stronger than the two previous ones. In
1957
01:44:25,600 --> 01:44:32,960
1947, at the worst economic moment, Ola
1958
01:44:29,760 --> 01:44:34,880
made the riskiest choice of his life. He
1959
01:44:32,960 --> 01:44:38,080
spent more than twice the company's
1960
01:44:34,880 --> 01:44:40,480
annual profits on a strange new machine.
1961
01:44:38,080 --> 01:44:42,320
One that worked not with wood, but with
1962
01:44:40,480 --> 01:44:45,040
plastic.
1963
01:44:42,320 --> 01:44:47,440
Retailers hated plastic. Parents
1964
01:44:45,040 --> 01:44:51,199
distrusted it. But Ola saw something
1965
01:44:47,440 --> 01:44:53,679
they didn't. Precision, repeatability,
1966
01:44:51,199 --> 01:44:55,920
and possibilities. Endless
1967
01:44:53,679 --> 01:44:59,199
possibilities.
1968
01:44:55,920 --> 01:45:01,360
Only 2 years later, in 1949,
1969
01:44:59,199 --> 01:45:04,639
LEGO released the first plastic bricks
1970
01:45:01,360 --> 01:45:07,440
of its history. They didn't click. They
1971
01:45:04,639 --> 01:45:10,440
weren't perfect, but they were the
1972
01:45:07,440 --> 01:45:10,440
beginning.
1973
01:45:14,719 --> 01:45:19,119
The idea was good, but Ol and his team
1974
01:45:17,360 --> 01:45:21,440
faced setbacks while designing the
1975
01:45:19,119 --> 01:45:24,639
bricks that had cemented Lego's identity
1976
01:45:21,440 --> 01:45:27,840
through the years. The plastic bricks
1977
01:45:24,639 --> 01:45:29,840
didn't grip. This was a major problem
1978
01:45:27,840 --> 01:45:32,639
for a building set because buildings
1979
01:45:29,840 --> 01:45:36,000
collapsed. Towers fell in front of their
1980
01:45:32,639 --> 01:45:40,480
eyes. Apparently, Lego wasn't created to
1981
01:45:36,000 --> 01:45:42,719
build. And then in 1958,
1982
01:45:40,480 --> 01:45:45,040
everything changed.
1983
01:45:42,719 --> 01:45:47,040
>> Unlike 20 years ago, LEGO Today allows
1984
01:45:45,040 --> 01:45:49,360
us to build many more things because
1985
01:45:47,040 --> 01:45:52,679
they have released more realistic colors
1986
01:45:49,360 --> 01:45:52,679
and shapes.
1987
01:45:53,119 --> 01:45:57,840
In the past, the pieces were mostly
1988
01:45:55,199 --> 01:45:59,920
square. Today, there is a much wider
1989
01:45:57,840 --> 01:46:02,080
variety of shapes, including more
1990
01:45:59,920 --> 01:46:04,880
rounded elements, which allow us to
1991
01:46:02,080 --> 01:46:06,639
create more ergonomic forms, ones that
1992
01:46:04,880 --> 01:46:08,880
more closely resemble the kinds of
1993
01:46:06,639 --> 01:46:11,119
buildings and structures we see in
1994
01:46:08,880 --> 01:46:14,080
everyday life.
1995
01:46:11,119 --> 01:46:17,280
>> Engineers at LEGO perfected a simple but
1996
01:46:14,080 --> 01:46:19,360
ingenious solution. Hollow tubes inside
1997
01:46:17,280 --> 01:46:21,600
the brick.
1998
01:46:19,360 --> 01:46:24,159
Paired with the studs on top, the
1999
01:46:21,600 --> 01:46:28,080
geometry created what LEGO calls clutch
2000
01:46:24,159 --> 01:46:30,320
power. Not too tight, not too loose,
2001
01:46:28,080 --> 01:46:32,159
just perfect.
2002
01:46:30,320 --> 01:46:34,800
This was not just an adjustment or
2003
01:46:32,159 --> 01:46:38,000
improvement. It was the birth of what we
2004
01:46:34,800 --> 01:46:40,560
know today as a Lego brick. The brick
2005
01:46:38,000 --> 01:46:42,560
that today can still be used with the
2006
01:46:40,560 --> 01:46:44,639
modern ones.
2007
01:46:42,560 --> 01:46:48,159
The brick that was the foundation of a
2008
01:46:44,639 --> 01:46:51,679
company that still makes history today.
2009
01:46:48,159 --> 01:46:53,679
That same year, Lego filed the patent.
2010
01:46:51,679 --> 01:46:56,080
They had something worth protecting and
2011
01:46:53,679 --> 01:46:59,119
Olly knew that sooner or later it would
2012
01:46:56,080 --> 01:47:02,719
be replicated.
2013
01:46:59,119 --> 01:47:06,480
It was January the 28th, 1958 when the
2014
01:47:02,719 --> 01:47:09,119
patent was filed. Later that year, Ole
2015
01:47:06,480 --> 01:47:12,320
Christensen passed away.
2016
01:47:09,119 --> 01:47:16,199
And sadly, he never lived to see how far
2017
01:47:12,320 --> 01:47:16,199
his brick would travel.
2018
01:47:23,679 --> 01:47:29,199
After his father died, Godfred Kirk
2019
01:47:26,239 --> 01:47:31,440
Christensen stepped in. He wasn't
2020
01:47:29,199 --> 01:47:34,400
inheriting the company. He was
2021
01:47:31,440 --> 01:47:36,960
inheriting a philosophy, one he had been
2022
01:47:34,400 --> 01:47:39,600
raised with. His father wasn't around
2023
01:47:36,960 --> 01:47:41,600
anymore, but the original spirit of Lego
2024
01:47:39,600 --> 01:47:43,600
lived on in the second Christensen
2025
01:47:41,600 --> 01:47:46,000
generation.
2026
01:47:43,600 --> 01:47:48,159
But he also had something to add.
2027
01:47:46,000 --> 01:47:51,520
Godfred believed Lego should be more
2028
01:47:48,159 --> 01:47:53,840
than toys. It should be a system. A
2029
01:47:51,520 --> 01:47:57,679
system where every piece connected with
2030
01:47:53,840 --> 01:47:59,760
every other piece across every set.
2031
01:47:57,679 --> 01:48:02,880
This created a language of creativity
2032
01:47:59,760 --> 01:48:06,080
and possibilities and a single idea
2033
01:48:02,880 --> 01:48:08,719
changed everything. Suddenly, LEGO
2034
01:48:06,080 --> 01:48:11,199
wasn't a collection of toys, but an
2035
01:48:08,719 --> 01:48:13,760
entire universe.
2036
01:48:11,199 --> 01:48:15,679
The company began to grow far beyond its
2037
01:48:13,760 --> 01:48:19,440
original frontiers.
2038
01:48:15,679 --> 01:48:24,239
During the 1960s and 70s, Lego expanded
2039
01:48:19,440 --> 01:48:27,040
across Europe, Germany, Sweden, the UK.
2040
01:48:24,239 --> 01:48:30,400
Villand, once a small village, became a
2041
01:48:27,040 --> 01:48:33,119
global hub of play. Lego then built its
2042
01:48:30,400 --> 01:48:34,080
own airport, factories, and distribution
2043
01:48:33,119 --> 01:48:36,000
centers.
2044
01:48:34,080 --> 01:48:38,320
>> In the world of construction toys, we
2045
01:48:36,000 --> 01:48:40,800
know that Lego isn't the only brand
2046
01:48:38,320 --> 01:48:45,280
around.
2047
01:48:40,800 --> 01:48:47,920
What Lego provides is a quality product.
2048
01:48:45,280 --> 01:48:50,800
Maybe one part is wrong for every 10,000
2049
01:48:47,920 --> 01:48:53,520
or 100,000 items. And if you are missing
2050
01:48:50,800 --> 01:48:55,679
an item from a box or if it is faulty,
2051
01:48:53,520 --> 01:48:57,119
the company's after sales service will
2052
01:48:55,679 --> 01:49:00,600
not question the fact that you are
2053
01:48:57,119 --> 01:49:00,600
missing a part.
2054
01:49:01,360 --> 01:49:07,600
And then the magic happened.
2055
01:49:04,960 --> 01:49:11,920
LEGO introduced something no toy company
2056
01:49:07,600 --> 01:49:15,679
had done at scale. Fully themed worlds.
2057
01:49:11,920 --> 01:49:17,040
space, town, castles.
2058
01:49:15,679 --> 01:49:19,440
Children weren't just building
2059
01:49:17,040 --> 01:49:21,360
structures anymore. They were building
2060
01:49:19,440 --> 01:49:24,880
stories.
2061
01:49:21,360 --> 01:49:26,800
In 1978, LEGO released its most iconic
2062
01:49:24,880 --> 01:49:28,400
invention since the brick, the
2063
01:49:26,800 --> 01:49:31,440
minifigure.
2064
01:49:28,400 --> 01:49:35,199
It had a simple face, hands shaped like
2065
01:49:31,440 --> 01:49:37,920
a sea, and feet made to stand on studs.
2066
01:49:35,199 --> 01:49:40,960
A tiny character that let kids project
2067
01:49:37,920 --> 01:49:44,000
themselves into entire universes.
2068
01:49:40,960 --> 01:49:48,000
stories now had heroes and Lego had a
2069
01:49:44,000 --> 01:49:50,000
heartbeat. In the late 1970s, Lego was
2070
01:49:48,000 --> 01:49:54,080
already run by the third Christensen
2071
01:49:50,000 --> 01:49:56,239
generation. Ole's grandson killed began
2072
01:49:54,080 --> 01:49:58,800
shaping the company into the global
2073
01:49:56,239 --> 01:50:01,199
powerhouse we know today.
2074
01:49:58,800 --> 01:50:04,480
He did so by creating more sophisticated
2075
01:50:01,199 --> 01:50:06,960
lines, bringing in new universes.
2076
01:50:04,480 --> 01:50:09,119
Technic brought mechanics, pirates
2077
01:50:06,960 --> 01:50:10,560
brought adventure, and trains brought
2078
01:50:09,119 --> 01:50:13,520
motion.
2079
01:50:10,560 --> 01:50:16,480
By the late 20th century, the global toy
2080
01:50:13,520 --> 01:50:19,520
market was becoming massive. Tens of
2081
01:50:16,480 --> 01:50:21,920
billions of dollars a year worth. The
2082
01:50:19,520 --> 01:50:24,880
United States spent more on toys than
2083
01:50:21,920 --> 01:50:27,679
any country on Earth. And China produced
2084
01:50:24,880 --> 01:50:29,360
most of them, nearly 34 of the world's
2085
01:50:27,679 --> 01:50:32,320
total.
2086
01:50:29,360 --> 01:50:38,199
In this booming landscape, Lego wasn't
2087
01:50:32,320 --> 01:50:38,199
just another toy. It was the toy.
2088
01:50:42,800 --> 01:50:48,639
By the late 1990s, LEGO was flying high.
2089
01:50:46,639 --> 01:50:50,880
It had become one of the most admired
2090
01:50:48,639 --> 01:50:53,040
companies in Europe. A creative
2091
01:50:50,880 --> 01:50:55,440
powerhouse built on the philosophy of
2092
01:50:53,040 --> 01:50:57,520
imagination and creation. We're not
2093
01:50:55,440 --> 01:50:59,199
focused only on childhood, but on
2094
01:50:57,520 --> 01:51:01,520
something that has quite literally built
2095
01:50:59,199 --> 01:51:03,679
us, pun intended, shaping our
2096
01:51:01,520 --> 01:51:06,400
personalities through Lego from an early
2097
01:51:03,679 --> 01:51:10,719
age. Those memories became a foundation
2098
01:51:06,400 --> 01:51:12,639
we've kept building on over time.
2099
01:51:10,719 --> 01:51:14,560
That's why exhibitions like this bring
2100
01:51:12,639 --> 01:51:17,520
us straight back to childhood. The
2101
01:51:14,560 --> 01:51:19,600
audience here is very diverse, but once
2102
01:51:17,520 --> 01:51:22,880
people walk in, they all become the boy
2103
01:51:19,600 --> 01:51:26,320
or girl they once were. But it's not all
2104
01:51:22,880 --> 01:51:29,040
gold that glitters. Under the surface,
2105
01:51:26,320 --> 01:51:31,840
something dangerous was creeping in. The
2106
01:51:29,040 --> 01:51:33,360
toy market was changing fast. Children
2107
01:51:31,840 --> 01:51:35,119
were spending more and more time with
2108
01:51:33,360 --> 01:51:36,639
video games and early computer
2109
01:51:35,119 --> 01:51:38,960
entertainment.
2110
01:51:36,639 --> 01:51:41,119
Sony's PlayStation, Nintendo, and
2111
01:51:38,960 --> 01:51:44,400
Hasbro's electronic toys were capturing
2112
01:51:41,119 --> 01:51:48,880
attention. And LEGO, determined not to
2113
01:51:44,400 --> 01:51:51,360
fall behind, expanded too far too fast.
2114
01:51:48,880 --> 01:51:53,520
Throughout the 1990s, Lego began
2115
01:51:51,360 --> 01:51:56,320
introducing thousands of completely new
2116
01:51:53,520 --> 01:51:59,280
pieces, specialized parts that not only
2117
01:51:56,320 --> 01:52:03,119
worked in one set. A single year could
2118
01:51:59,280 --> 01:52:05,280
bring more than 350 new designs, each of
2119
01:52:03,119 --> 01:52:07,119
them costing tens of thousands of
2120
01:52:05,280 --> 01:52:09,920
dollars in steel, machining, and
2121
01:52:07,119 --> 01:52:11,840
precision engineering.
2122
01:52:09,920 --> 01:52:14,080
In 2002,
2123
01:52:11,840 --> 01:52:17,040
Lego had more than 12,000 active
2124
01:52:14,080 --> 01:52:19,520
elements. The system of play, once
2125
01:52:17,040 --> 01:52:22,800
simple and universal, was becoming
2126
01:52:19,520 --> 01:52:25,840
chaotic and difficult to follow. LEGO
2127
01:52:22,800 --> 01:52:27,920
also tried becoming a lifestyle brand.
2128
01:52:25,840 --> 01:52:31,119
New ventures appeared everywhere,
2129
01:52:27,920 --> 01:52:33,280
clothing lines, theme parks, homegoods,
2130
01:52:31,119 --> 01:52:35,040
cartoon series, even watches and
2131
01:52:33,280 --> 01:52:36,960
sneakers.
2132
01:52:35,040 --> 01:52:39,599
But these projects drained resources
2133
01:52:36,960 --> 01:52:41,280
without reinforcing the core product,
2134
01:52:39,599 --> 01:52:45,920
the brick.
2135
01:52:41,280 --> 01:52:47,440
And between 1999 and 2003, LEGO sales
2136
01:52:45,920 --> 01:52:49,599
collapsed.
2137
01:52:47,440 --> 01:52:52,320
During these years, the company went
2138
01:52:49,599 --> 01:52:55,520
from doubledigit growth to struggling.
2139
01:52:52,320 --> 01:52:58,880
And by 2003, the company was losing the
2140
01:52:55,520 --> 01:53:01,760
equivalent of $1 million a day. In a
2141
01:52:58,880 --> 01:53:05,599
global toy market, still worth more than
2142
01:53:01,760 --> 01:53:07,920
$70 billion US at the time, Lego, once
2143
01:53:05,599 --> 01:53:10,400
the king of the toy box, was only a few
2144
01:53:07,920 --> 01:53:13,520
steps away from bankruptcy.
2145
01:53:10,400 --> 01:53:17,760
Times were dark, but a spark of genius
2146
01:53:13,520 --> 01:53:20,159
appeared. In 1999, LEGO signed its first
2147
01:53:17,760 --> 01:53:22,000
ever licensing deal with no other than
2148
01:53:20,159 --> 01:53:25,040
Lucasfilm.
2149
01:53:22,000 --> 01:53:28,320
The timing was perfect. Star Wars
2150
01:53:25,040 --> 01:53:31,040
Episode 1 was about to hit theaters.
2151
01:53:28,320 --> 01:53:34,080
Hype was global and the first Lego Star
2152
01:53:31,040 --> 01:53:37,280
Wars sets were instant hits, not just
2153
01:53:34,080 --> 01:53:39,360
with children, with adults. Collectors
2154
01:53:37,280 --> 01:53:41,440
lined up to buy the X-wing, the
2155
01:53:39,360 --> 01:53:44,800
Snowspeeder, or the first Millennium
2156
01:53:41,440 --> 01:53:47,599
Falcon. For the first time in LEGO's
2157
01:53:44,800 --> 01:53:50,400
history, adults, including those in
2158
01:53:47,599 --> 01:53:51,280
their 30s and 40s, were buying sets for
2159
01:53:50,400 --> 01:53:53,280
themselves.
2160
01:53:51,280 --> 01:53:56,000
>> The adult fan of Lego community is
2161
01:53:53,280 --> 01:53:58,080
getting bigger. This is because Lego is
2162
01:53:56,000 --> 01:54:00,639
not the same as it was 20 or 30 years
2163
01:53:58,080 --> 01:54:02,880
ago.
2164
01:54:00,639 --> 01:54:04,719
Before, Lego was only seen as a toy to
2165
01:54:02,880 --> 01:54:07,719
play with when it was cold and you were
2166
01:54:04,719 --> 01:54:07,719
indoors.
2167
01:54:08,080 --> 01:54:12,960
Today, Lego is much more than a toy.
2168
01:54:10,560 --> 01:54:15,280
It's used to create logos to design
2169
01:54:12,960 --> 01:54:18,239
dynamic group activities. And it also
2170
01:54:15,280 --> 01:54:20,480
represents a shift in how we see it.
2171
01:54:18,239 --> 01:54:22,880
years ago, if you said you played with
2172
01:54:20,480 --> 01:54:25,280
Lego or built Lego, you almost had to
2173
01:54:22,880 --> 01:54:27,119
explain yourself that you were at home
2174
01:54:25,280 --> 01:54:29,920
playing with little figures making up
2175
01:54:27,119 --> 01:54:31,760
battles. What we do today is different.
2176
01:54:29,920 --> 01:54:35,520
We come together as a community of
2177
01:54:31,760 --> 01:54:37,360
adults and LEGO has recognized that.
2178
01:54:35,520 --> 01:54:39,679
That's why more and more products are
2179
01:54:37,360 --> 01:54:42,320
now designed specifically for adults,
2180
01:54:39,679 --> 01:54:45,320
more complex to build, and also more
2181
01:54:42,320 --> 01:54:45,320
expensive.
2182
01:54:46,480 --> 01:54:52,239
This kid demographic would later become
2183
01:54:49,119 --> 01:54:55,040
one of LEGO's most profitable segments.
2184
01:54:52,239 --> 01:54:58,320
More licenses followed. Harry Potter,
2185
01:54:55,040 --> 01:55:00,239
Spider-Man, Batman, Indiana Jones, and
2186
01:54:58,320 --> 01:55:01,920
later the newest Marvel Cinematic
2187
01:55:00,239 --> 01:55:03,520
Universe.
2188
01:55:01,920 --> 01:55:06,960
Even though LEGO learned that
2189
01:55:03,520 --> 01:55:10,239
storytelling sells, in 2004, losses were
2190
01:55:06,960 --> 01:55:12,719
mounting and survival was uncertain.
2191
01:55:10,239 --> 01:55:14,239
And then the company made a radical
2192
01:55:12,719 --> 01:55:16,639
decision.
2193
01:55:14,239 --> 01:55:19,040
For the first time in its history, the
2194
01:55:16,639 --> 01:55:22,960
company appointed a CEO from outside the
2195
01:55:19,040 --> 01:55:26,560
Christensen family, Jurgen Vic Nutsto, a
2196
01:55:22,960 --> 01:55:30,480
35-year-old former McKenzie consultant.
2197
01:55:26,560 --> 01:55:34,159
He was calm, precise, analytical,
2198
01:55:30,480 --> 01:55:38,000
and brutally honest. His diagnosis was
2199
01:55:34,159 --> 01:55:39,760
simple. Lego had forgotten what made it
2200
01:55:38,000 --> 01:55:42,080
Lego.
2201
01:55:39,760 --> 01:55:45,360
Kutto cut the number of unique elements
2202
01:55:42,080 --> 01:55:48,000
by nearly 50%. He sold off the theme
2203
01:55:45,360 --> 01:55:50,800
parks. He shut down unprofitable
2204
01:55:48,000 --> 01:55:53,840
production facilities. He centralized
2205
01:55:50,800 --> 01:55:55,520
supply chains, standardized materials,
2206
01:55:53,840 --> 01:55:58,639
and brought back discipline to the
2207
01:55:55,520 --> 01:56:03,400
system. But more important, he put the
2208
01:55:58,639 --> 01:56:03,400
brick back at the center of the company.
2209
01:56:05,040 --> 01:56:09,920
This turnaround didn't happen in
2210
01:56:06,880 --> 01:56:13,280
isolation. The global toy industry was
2211
01:56:09,920 --> 01:56:15,840
undergoing a seismic change. China was
2212
01:56:13,280 --> 01:56:18,320
producing nearly 75% of the world's
2213
01:56:15,840 --> 01:56:21,440
toys, being the largest manufacturing
2214
01:56:18,320 --> 01:56:23,599
consolidation in toy history.
2215
01:56:21,440 --> 01:56:26,159
Meanwhile, the United States had become
2216
01:56:23,599 --> 01:56:28,400
the single largest consumer, responsible
2217
01:56:26,159 --> 01:56:31,400
for nearly onethird of the global toy
2218
01:56:28,400 --> 01:56:31,400
spending.
2219
01:56:31,599 --> 01:56:39,040
By 2005, the toy market was worth close
2220
01:56:35,199 --> 01:56:42,159
to $80 billion US. But it was brutally
2221
01:56:39,040 --> 01:56:44,880
competitive as well. Seasonality was
2222
01:56:42,159 --> 01:56:47,520
extreme. Nearly half of the annual toy
2223
01:56:44,880 --> 01:56:50,080
sales occurred in just 3 months from
2224
01:56:47,520 --> 01:56:53,199
October to December.
2225
01:56:50,080 --> 01:56:55,280
Companies lived or died by Christmas.
2226
01:56:53,199 --> 01:56:58,159
Mattel was battling declining Barbie
2227
01:56:55,280 --> 01:56:59,520
sales. Hasbro was betting its future on
2228
01:56:58,159 --> 01:57:01,119
Transformers and board game
2229
01:56:59,520 --> 01:57:02,960
reinventions.
2230
01:57:01,119 --> 01:57:05,920
Electronics were eating market share
2231
01:57:02,960 --> 01:57:10,320
across every age group. In this
2232
01:57:05,920 --> 01:57:16,280
scenario, LEGO rebuilt and refocused and
2233
01:57:10,320 --> 01:57:16,280
then began rising above all of them.
2234
01:57:19,440 --> 01:57:27,119
Between 2008 and 2015, LEGO entered a
2235
01:57:23,679 --> 01:57:30,000
new era, a renaissance driven by design,
2236
01:57:27,119 --> 01:57:32,159
storytelling, digital engagement, and
2237
01:57:30,000 --> 01:57:34,000
adult passion.
2238
01:57:32,159 --> 01:57:36,960
The company launched the ultimate
2239
01:57:34,000 --> 01:57:40,400
collector series, producing the largest,
2240
01:57:36,960 --> 01:57:42,639
most detailed models in toy history.
2241
01:57:40,400 --> 01:57:45,920
Lego architecture brought landmarks to
2242
01:57:42,639 --> 01:57:48,480
coffee tables. Modular buildings turned
2243
01:57:45,920 --> 01:57:50,639
living rooms into miniature cities, and
2244
01:57:48,480 --> 01:57:53,679
adults were no longer hiding their Lego
2245
01:57:50,639 --> 01:57:56,159
hobby, but embracing it. My story with
2246
01:57:53,679 --> 01:57:58,400
Lego began in the early '9s when I was a
2247
01:57:56,159 --> 01:58:00,480
small child.
2248
01:57:58,400 --> 01:58:02,400
I started playing, but then I stopped
2249
01:58:00,480 --> 01:58:04,080
for a while.
2250
01:58:02,400 --> 01:58:06,400
This is what most of us want to do when
2251
01:58:04,080 --> 01:58:10,760
we are teenagers to do other hobbies and
2252
01:58:06,400 --> 01:58:10,760
spend less time playing with Lego.
2253
01:58:11,360 --> 01:58:16,639
After that, when I was in my early 20s,
2254
01:58:13,280 --> 01:58:18,800
I started collecting Lego. I met people
2255
01:58:16,639 --> 01:58:21,360
from the Valencian community and founded
2256
01:58:18,800 --> 01:58:23,280
Valrech.
2257
01:58:21,360 --> 01:58:25,840
That eventually led me to a television
2258
01:58:23,280 --> 01:58:28,000
show where I took part and won. From
2259
01:58:25,840 --> 01:58:31,480
there, companies began approaching me to
2260
01:58:28,000 --> 01:58:31,480
develop projects.
2261
01:58:32,880 --> 01:58:36,480
At first, this hadn't even occurred to
2262
01:58:34,719 --> 01:58:38,880
me,
2263
01:58:36,480 --> 01:58:41,119
but I started to see a growing demand,
2264
01:58:38,880 --> 01:58:43,360
whether it was building a corporate kit,
2265
01:58:41,119 --> 01:58:46,639
like a transport company's truck, or
2266
01:58:43,360 --> 01:58:48,400
even a company's logistics headquarters.
2267
01:58:46,639 --> 01:58:50,400
This market opened up a professional
2268
01:58:48,400 --> 01:58:52,320
path for me.
2269
01:58:50,400 --> 01:58:55,840
It supports me financially, but more
2270
01:58:52,320 --> 01:58:57,760
importantly, it's deeply rewarding.
2271
01:58:55,840 --> 01:58:59,440
Many of these projects challenge me to
2272
01:58:57,760 --> 01:59:00,880
build things I would never choose on my
2273
01:58:59,440 --> 01:59:03,679
own.
2274
01:59:00,880 --> 01:59:05,520
But once a challenge is set, build this.
2275
01:59:03,679 --> 01:59:08,320
My mind immediately starts collecting
2276
01:59:05,520 --> 01:59:10,320
ideas, figuring out how to shape them
2277
01:59:08,320 --> 01:59:14,199
and bring the project to life in the
2278
01:59:10,320 --> 01:59:14,199
best possible way.
2279
01:59:20,719 --> 01:59:25,840
fan events, engineering cups, a global
2280
01:59:23,920 --> 01:59:29,599
movement emerged.
2281
01:59:25,840 --> 01:59:31,440
By 2014, adults accounted for nearly 1/3
2282
01:59:29,599 --> 01:59:34,000
of LEGO sales.
2283
01:59:31,440 --> 01:59:36,239
>> To anyone who thinks Lego is only for
2284
01:59:34,000 --> 01:59:37,760
children, I'd say come and see the
2285
01:59:36,239 --> 01:59:39,599
exhibition.
2286
01:59:37,760 --> 01:59:42,400
See what we're capable of creating with
2287
01:59:39,599 --> 01:59:46,400
Lego pieces and how imagination develops
2288
01:59:42,400 --> 01:59:48,560
in both children and adults.
2289
01:59:46,400 --> 01:59:51,440
Children work within certain limits and
2290
01:59:48,560 --> 01:59:54,080
see things differently, but adults with
2291
01:59:51,440 --> 01:59:56,719
a wider range of colors, shapes, and
2292
01:59:54,080 --> 01:59:59,920
ways to use the pieces can explore just
2293
01:59:56,719 --> 02:00:01,920
how much is possible.
2294
01:59:59,920 --> 02:00:04,719
>> It was a radical shift in the economics
2295
02:00:01,920 --> 02:00:06,639
of play. And then came the cultural
2296
02:00:04,719 --> 02:00:09,679
explosion.
2297
02:00:06,639 --> 02:00:12,800
In 2014, The Lego Movie shattered
2298
02:00:09,679 --> 02:00:16,159
expectations, earning nearly $500
2299
02:00:12,800 --> 02:00:19,040
million US at the box office.
2300
02:00:16,159 --> 02:00:22,639
What started as a toy was now pop
2301
02:00:19,040 --> 02:00:24,800
culture. By the mid 2010s,
2302
02:00:22,639 --> 02:00:27,679
Lego was the world's most valuable toy
2303
02:00:24,800 --> 02:00:30,400
company, even surpassing Mattel, Hasbro,
2304
02:00:27,679 --> 02:00:32,960
and every other competitor.
2305
02:00:30,400 --> 02:00:36,400
The brick that started it all was no
2306
02:00:32,960 --> 02:00:39,400
longer just a product. It was a global
2307
02:00:36,400 --> 02:00:39,400
icon.
2308
02:00:41,360 --> 02:00:45,599
The LEGO Group stands today as one of
2309
02:00:43,599 --> 02:00:47,599
the most efficient, profitable, and
2310
02:00:45,599 --> 02:00:50,159
culturally influential toy companies on
2311
02:00:47,599 --> 02:00:52,400
Earth. Its factories run with near
2312
02:00:50,159 --> 02:00:54,560
perfect precision.
2313
02:00:52,400 --> 02:00:57,760
Its design teams develop thousands of
2314
02:00:54,560 --> 02:00:59,760
prototypes each year. Its supply chain
2315
02:00:57,760 --> 02:01:02,560
delivers billions of bricks that must
2316
02:00:59,760 --> 02:01:04,400
all fit together flawlessly across
2317
02:01:02,560 --> 02:01:07,119
decades.
2318
02:01:04,400 --> 02:01:11,199
In a global toy market worth roughly
2319
02:01:07,119 --> 02:01:15,440
$120 billion a year, Lego commands
2320
02:01:11,199 --> 02:01:18,320
nearly 9% of all worldwide toy sales. No
2321
02:01:15,440 --> 02:01:21,199
other toy brand, not Barbie, not Marvel
2322
02:01:18,320 --> 02:01:23,360
figures, not Nintendo merchandise,
2323
02:01:21,199 --> 02:01:27,040
maintains such consistency across
2324
02:01:23,360 --> 02:01:29,040
continents, genders, and generations.
2325
02:01:27,040 --> 02:01:32,239
And unlike most toy companies that
2326
02:01:29,040 --> 02:01:33,599
outsource manufacturing, LEGO controls a
2327
02:01:32,239 --> 02:01:36,719
significant portion of its own
2328
02:01:33,599 --> 02:01:39,280
production with major hubs in Denmark,
2329
02:01:36,719 --> 02:01:41,280
Hungary, Mexico, China, and the Czech
2330
02:01:39,280 --> 02:01:44,080
Republic.
2331
02:01:41,280 --> 02:01:46,639
This vertical integration reduces risk,
2332
02:01:44,080 --> 02:01:48,480
stabilizes quality, and protects one of
2333
02:01:46,639 --> 02:01:51,840
the most important values in the
2334
02:01:48,480 --> 02:01:54,080
company's DNA, precision.
2335
02:01:51,840 --> 02:01:56,480
Every Lego brick must be manufactured
2336
02:01:54,080 --> 02:01:59,520
with tolerances thinner than a strand of
2337
02:01:56,480 --> 02:02:03,040
hair. If the clutch is too tight, the
2338
02:01:59,520 --> 02:02:06,159
model breaks. If it's too loose, towers
2339
02:02:03,040 --> 02:02:09,679
collapse. Across billions of pieces,
2340
02:02:06,159 --> 02:02:13,040
perfection is not an ambition. It is an
2341
02:02:09,679 --> 02:02:15,119
engineering reality for LEGO.
2342
02:02:13,040 --> 02:02:17,280
This level of detail gives the company
2343
02:02:15,119 --> 02:02:20,000
one of the highest brand trust ratings
2344
02:02:17,280 --> 02:02:21,199
in the world. Parents know the bricks
2345
02:02:20,000 --> 02:02:23,679
will last.
2346
02:02:21,199 --> 02:02:25,920
Adults know the sets will impress.
2347
02:02:23,679 --> 02:02:27,599
Collectors know the investment will hold
2348
02:02:25,920 --> 02:02:29,840
value.
2349
02:02:27,599 --> 02:02:32,639
The modern toy market is a machine of
2350
02:02:29,840 --> 02:02:34,400
impulse, tradition, celebration, and
2351
02:02:32,639 --> 02:02:36,239
nostalgia.
2352
02:02:34,400 --> 02:02:39,760
In 2025,
2353
02:02:36,239 --> 02:02:42,800
global spending on toys approaches 120
2354
02:02:39,760 --> 02:02:45,520
billion, nearly double what it was two
2355
02:02:42,800 --> 02:02:48,080
decades earlier. The United States
2356
02:02:45,520 --> 02:02:49,840
remains the world's largest consumer,
2357
02:02:48,080 --> 02:02:52,719
accounting for roughly onethird of
2358
02:02:49,840 --> 02:02:55,440
global sales. A typical American
2359
02:02:52,719 --> 02:02:59,440
household with children may spend $300
2360
02:02:55,440 --> 02:03:01,440
to $400 per child per year on toys. This
2361
02:02:59,440 --> 02:03:03,360
is more than five times the global
2362
02:03:01,440 --> 02:03:05,760
average.
2363
02:03:03,360 --> 02:03:08,080
Europe forms the second largest block
2364
02:03:05,760 --> 02:03:10,960
with strong purchasing power in Germany,
2365
02:03:08,080 --> 02:03:13,360
the United Kingdom, and France.
2366
02:03:10,960 --> 02:03:15,840
Asia-Pacific is rapidly growing,
2367
02:03:13,360 --> 02:03:18,719
especially in China, South Korea, and
2368
02:03:15,840 --> 02:03:21,360
Japan, driven by rising middle classes
2369
02:03:18,719 --> 02:03:23,760
and urban lifestyles.
2370
02:03:21,360 --> 02:03:27,119
But the most important shift of the last
2371
02:03:23,760 --> 02:03:30,119
decade is not geographic, it is
2372
02:03:27,119 --> 02:03:30,119
demographic.
2373
02:03:34,239 --> 02:03:39,599
Adults. Once considered irrelevant to
2374
02:03:36,960 --> 02:03:43,040
the toy industry and now one of the most
2375
02:03:39,599 --> 02:03:45,599
powerful forces, this growing segment,
2376
02:03:43,040 --> 02:03:49,040
commonly called the kid market, now
2377
02:03:45,599 --> 02:03:51,520
represents between 25 and 30% of all toy
2378
02:03:49,040 --> 02:03:54,080
purchases worldwide.
2379
02:03:51,520 --> 02:03:57,199
Adults buy toys for nostalgia, for
2380
02:03:54,080 --> 02:04:00,159
stress relief, for display, for
2381
02:03:57,199 --> 02:04:02,639
identity. Lego is the undisputed
2382
02:04:00,159 --> 02:04:07,800
champion of this movement. Unlike other
2383
02:04:02,639 --> 02:04:07,800
hobbies, Lego gives me a sense of calm.
2384
02:04:08,880 --> 02:04:13,520
It lets me take ideas from my mind,
2385
02:04:11,280 --> 02:04:16,880
bring them to life, think them through,
2386
02:04:13,520 --> 02:04:19,679
and simply enjoy the process. Right now,
2387
02:04:16,880 --> 02:04:22,239
I'm trying to instill that in my son to
2388
02:04:19,679 --> 02:04:24,159
enjoy himself to learn to see colors and
2389
02:04:22,239 --> 02:04:27,599
shapes and to understand that with
2390
02:04:24,159 --> 02:04:30,880
imagination, anything is possible.
2391
02:04:27,599 --> 02:04:33,440
Its premium sets, Technic Hypercars,
2392
02:04:30,880 --> 02:04:36,159
Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series,
2393
02:04:33,440 --> 02:04:38,480
iconic landmarks, regularly exceed
2394
02:04:36,159 --> 02:04:40,800
prices of $30,500,
2395
02:04:38,480 --> 02:04:43,520
even $800.
2396
02:04:40,800 --> 02:04:45,360
They sell out within hours. They hold
2397
02:04:43,520 --> 02:04:48,239
aftermarket values like fine
2398
02:04:45,360 --> 02:04:50,480
collectibles. This adult segment has
2399
02:04:48,239 --> 02:04:53,520
reshaped the entire financial landscape
2400
02:04:50,480 --> 02:04:56,639
of the company. It provides stability
2401
02:04:53,520 --> 02:04:59,840
when children's trends shift. It creates
2402
02:04:56,639 --> 02:05:02,000
recurring revenue from loyal fans and it
2403
02:04:59,840 --> 02:05:04,880
strengthens LEGO's position as a
2404
02:05:02,000 --> 02:05:07,920
crossgenerational brand, something few
2405
02:05:04,880 --> 02:05:10,159
toy companies have ever achieved.
2406
02:05:07,920 --> 02:05:13,119
Seasonality still dictates much of the
2407
02:05:10,159 --> 02:05:15,440
global toy market. Every year, nearly
2408
02:05:13,119 --> 02:05:18,800
half of all toy sales occur between
2409
02:05:15,440 --> 02:05:21,679
October and December. Companies live or
2410
02:05:18,800 --> 02:05:24,960
die by holiday forecasting, inventory
2411
02:05:21,679 --> 02:05:27,679
strategy, and shipment timing. But LEGO
2412
02:05:24,960 --> 02:05:30,560
has become the exception. Adult
2413
02:05:27,679 --> 02:05:32,880
collectors buy year round. Digital
2414
02:05:30,560 --> 02:05:36,000
experiences drive sales outside the
2415
02:05:32,880 --> 02:05:39,280
holiday season. Licensed launches create
2416
02:05:36,000 --> 02:05:42,000
anticipation even in slow quarters.
2417
02:05:39,280 --> 02:05:44,000
LEGO has effectively freed itself or at
2418
02:05:42,000 --> 02:05:46,080
least partially from the seasonal
2419
02:05:44,000 --> 02:05:49,520
dependency that has defined the toy
2420
02:05:46,080 --> 02:05:53,360
industry for over a century. The brick
2421
02:05:49,520 --> 02:05:55,840
is physical, tangible, mechanical. But
2422
02:05:53,360 --> 02:05:59,599
Lego's success in the 21st century
2423
02:05:55,840 --> 02:06:03,280
extends into digital worlds. Star Wars,
2424
02:05:59,599 --> 02:06:05,280
Batman, Marvel. These games defined an
2425
02:06:03,280 --> 02:06:08,320
entire generation of familyfriendly
2426
02:06:05,280 --> 02:06:11,040
titles. They sold tens of millions of
2427
02:06:08,320 --> 02:06:14,000
copies. They introduced humor,
2428
02:06:11,040 --> 02:06:17,040
storytelling, and simplicity to a medium
2429
02:06:14,000 --> 02:06:19,119
often dominated by complexity.
2430
02:06:17,040 --> 02:06:22,080
For many children born after the year
2431
02:06:19,119 --> 02:06:26,000
2000, Lego was not discovered in a toy
2432
02:06:22,080 --> 02:06:28,800
box, but on a screen. The cinematic leap
2433
02:06:26,000 --> 02:06:31,679
came in 2014 when the Lego movie
2434
02:06:28,800 --> 02:06:34,400
premiered to global acclaim. It turned
2435
02:06:31,679 --> 02:06:37,040
nearly half a billion dollars. Most
2436
02:06:34,400 --> 02:06:40,400
importantly, it reframed Lego as a
2437
02:06:37,040 --> 02:06:42,719
cultural idea, not a product. The film
2438
02:06:40,400 --> 02:06:46,000
taught a global audience that creativity
2439
02:06:42,719 --> 02:06:48,079
matters, that imperfection is beautiful,
2440
02:06:46,000 --> 02:06:51,840
that building and rebuilding are not
2441
02:06:48,079 --> 02:06:54,960
failures, they are the process of play.
2442
02:06:51,840 --> 02:06:57,199
Lego Batman expanded the concept. Lego
2443
02:06:54,960 --> 02:07:00,480
Ninjago created an entirely new
2444
02:06:57,199 --> 02:07:02,560
generation of fans and Lego Masters on
2445
02:07:00,480 --> 02:07:04,719
television turned building into a
2446
02:07:02,560 --> 02:07:07,520
competitive art form.
2447
02:07:04,719 --> 02:07:10,800
The brand had moved beyond toys, beyond
2448
02:07:07,520 --> 02:07:13,440
stories, beyond bricks. It had become
2449
02:07:10,800 --> 02:07:16,440
part of a cultural grammar of the 21st
2450
02:07:13,440 --> 02:07:16,440
century.
2451
02:07:20,079 --> 02:07:24,480
Long before STEM became a global
2452
02:07:22,159 --> 02:07:27,679
movement, Lego was already teaching
2453
02:07:24,480 --> 02:07:31,119
children how to think like engineers. In
2454
02:07:27,679 --> 02:07:33,520
the 1990s, Lego Mindstorms introduced
2455
02:07:31,119 --> 02:07:38,000
programmable robotics to students around
2456
02:07:33,520 --> 02:07:40,480
the world. Later sets, we do Spike Prime
2457
02:07:38,000 --> 02:07:44,239
Boost brought coding, sensors, and
2458
02:07:40,480 --> 02:07:46,639
motors into classrooms and homes. Today,
2459
02:07:44,239 --> 02:07:48,880
LEGO Education works with governments,
2460
02:07:46,639 --> 02:07:50,639
schools, and universities to bring
2461
02:07:48,880 --> 02:07:54,000
hands-on learning to millions of
2462
02:07:50,639 --> 02:07:56,639
students. The philosophy is simple.
2463
02:07:54,000 --> 02:07:58,960
Children learn best through play. This
2464
02:07:56,639 --> 02:08:02,239
approach shapes future engineers,
2465
02:07:58,960 --> 02:08:03,920
designers, and problem solvers. It helps
2466
02:08:02,239 --> 02:08:07,119
children experiment in ways that
2467
02:08:03,920 --> 02:08:09,599
textbooks cannot. And it continues Ole
2468
02:08:07,119 --> 02:08:11,760
Kirk's belief that play is not a
2469
02:08:09,599 --> 02:08:14,480
distraction from learning, but the
2470
02:08:11,760 --> 02:08:16,480
foundation of it.
2471
02:08:14,480 --> 02:08:17,280
In a world increasingly focused on
2472
02:08:16,480 --> 02:08:19,280
sustainability,
2473
02:08:17,280 --> 02:08:21,280
>> from my experience, what makes Lego
2474
02:08:19,280 --> 02:08:24,079
different from other construction toys
2475
02:08:21,280 --> 02:08:26,400
is its growing commitment to inclusion.
2476
02:08:24,079 --> 02:08:27,760
In recent years, LEGO has actively
2477
02:08:26,400 --> 02:08:30,000
embraced people with different
2478
02:08:27,760 --> 02:08:31,920
abilities. For example, by including
2479
02:08:30,000 --> 02:08:34,639
figures in wheelchairs and releasing
2480
02:08:31,920 --> 02:08:36,480
sets in Braille. These are things most
2481
02:08:34,639 --> 02:08:38,560
other brands simply don't offer, but
2482
02:08:36,480 --> 02:08:40,800
LEGO does.
2483
02:08:38,560 --> 02:08:42,719
In addition, LEGO is strongly committed
2484
02:08:40,800 --> 02:08:44,320
to the environment.
2485
02:08:42,719 --> 02:08:46,560
They're producing more and more pieces
2486
02:08:44,320 --> 02:08:48,480
using recycled plastic and replacing
2487
02:08:46,560 --> 02:08:51,280
plastic packaging with paper to reduce
2488
02:08:48,480 --> 02:08:53,920
waste, something other brands simply
2489
02:08:51,280 --> 02:08:56,960
don't do.
2490
02:08:53,920 --> 02:08:59,440
Lego faces a unique challenge. Its
2491
02:08:56,960 --> 02:09:01,920
bricks are made to last forever. A
2492
02:08:59,440 --> 02:09:05,679
blessing for creativity, but a concern
2493
02:09:01,920 --> 02:09:07,679
in an era of plastic waste. In response,
2494
02:09:05,679 --> 02:09:09,599
LEGO has invested hundreds of millions
2495
02:09:07,679 --> 02:09:11,760
of dollars into developing more
2496
02:09:09,599 --> 02:09:14,400
sustainable materials.
2497
02:09:11,760 --> 02:09:17,679
Plant-based polyethylene is already used
2498
02:09:14,400 --> 02:09:20,639
for leaves and trees. Recycled PT
2499
02:09:17,679 --> 02:09:23,199
prototypes continue to advance.
2500
02:09:20,639 --> 02:09:26,639
Recycled PET prototypes continue to
2501
02:09:23,199 --> 02:09:30,320
advance. New polymer engineering aims to
2502
02:09:26,639 --> 02:09:32,880
create bricks as durable as ABS without
2503
02:09:30,320 --> 02:09:36,159
the environmental cost.
2504
02:09:32,880 --> 02:09:38,239
This transition is not simple. A Lego
2505
02:09:36,159 --> 02:09:41,040
brick must interlock with perfect
2506
02:09:38,239 --> 02:09:43,040
precision. A fraction of a millimeter
2507
02:09:41,040 --> 02:09:44,880
can make the difference between wonder
2508
02:09:43,040 --> 02:09:47,599
and frustration.
2509
02:09:44,880 --> 02:09:50,000
But the mission is clear. A toy that
2510
02:09:47,599 --> 02:09:53,199
lasts forever should also protect the
2511
02:09:50,000 --> 02:09:56,880
world it is played in. Play is not a
2512
02:09:53,199 --> 02:09:58,400
luxury. Play is exploration. Play is
2513
02:09:56,880 --> 02:10:00,719
curiosity.
2514
02:09:58,400 --> 02:10:02,560
Play is the earliest form of human
2515
02:10:00,719 --> 02:10:04,639
creativity.
2516
02:10:02,560 --> 02:10:07,199
From wooden ducks in a small Danish
2517
02:10:04,639 --> 02:10:09,280
workshop to interlocking bricks that
2518
02:10:07,199 --> 02:10:12,639
span generations
2519
02:10:09,280 --> 02:10:15,520
to movies, video games, robotics, and
2520
02:10:12,639 --> 02:10:18,159
global fan communities. LEGO has
2521
02:10:15,520 --> 02:10:22,000
remained loyal to a simple truth. When
2522
02:10:18,159 --> 02:10:25,679
we build, we grow. When we imagine, we
2523
02:10:22,000 --> 02:10:28,679
expand. When we play, we become more
2524
02:10:25,679 --> 02:10:28,679
human.
2525
02:10:32,560 --> 02:10:38,320
More than a century ago, a carpenter
2526
02:10:35,360 --> 02:10:41,119
rebuilt his workshop after a fire. He
2527
02:10:38,320 --> 02:10:44,000
rebuilt it again after another.
2528
02:10:41,119 --> 02:10:46,400
Not because it was easy, but because he
2529
02:10:44,000 --> 02:10:49,840
believed in the power of making things
2530
02:10:46,400 --> 02:10:51,840
and in the power of play. Today,
2531
02:10:49,840 --> 02:10:55,440
billions of creations have risen from
2532
02:10:51,840 --> 02:10:57,280
that belief. Cities, castles,
2533
02:10:55,440 --> 02:10:59,280
spaceships,
2534
02:10:57,280 --> 02:11:02,480
dreams that exist nowhere else but in
2535
02:10:59,280 --> 02:11:05,520
the minds of the people who build them.
2536
02:11:02,480 --> 02:11:08,400
Lego is not perfect. It has faced
2537
02:11:05,520 --> 02:11:12,560
crises, challenges, and impossible
2538
02:11:08,400 --> 02:11:14,719
decisions. But it endures through war,
2539
02:11:12,560 --> 02:11:17,520
through technological revolutions,
2540
02:11:14,719 --> 02:11:20,639
through economic storms. Because
2541
02:11:17,520 --> 02:11:22,560
imagination always endures.
2542
02:11:20,639 --> 02:11:26,960
And as long as there are hands reaching
2543
02:11:22,560 --> 02:11:29,599
for bricks, as long as there are minds,
2544
02:11:26,960 --> 02:11:31,440
the legacy of Ole Kirk Christensen will
2545
02:11:29,599 --> 02:11:37,079
continue.
2546
02:11:31,440 --> 02:11:37,079
Every dream starts with a single piece.
2547
02:13:03,280 --> 02:13:11,040
Jensen Huang the software moat
2548
02:13:07,599 --> 02:13:14,320
June 18th 2024
2549
02:13:11,040 --> 02:13:16,800
for a brief historic moment the world
2550
02:13:14,320 --> 02:13:20,159
had a new king
2551
02:13:16,800 --> 02:13:23,360
Jensen Hang the co-founder and CEO O of
2552
02:13:20,159 --> 02:13:26,639
Nvidia stood at the peak of a $3.4
2553
02:13:23,360 --> 02:13:28,960
trillion mountain.
2554
02:13:26,639 --> 02:13:32,000
Analysts whispered that he wasn't just
2555
02:13:28,960 --> 02:13:35,599
leading a company. He was leading the
2556
02:13:32,000 --> 02:13:38,480
first entity destined for a $4 trillion
2557
02:13:35,599 --> 02:13:40,480
valuation.
2558
02:13:38,480 --> 02:13:43,920
But to understand the man in the leather
2559
02:13:40,480 --> 02:13:47,760
jacket, you cannot look at the triumph.
2560
02:13:43,920 --> 02:13:52,000
You must look at the fear. Behind the
2561
02:13:47,760 --> 02:13:55,520
250% revenue jumps and the soldout age
2562
02:13:52,000 --> 02:13:58,000
100 backlogs lies a leader obsessed with
2563
02:13:55,520 --> 02:13:59,679
the cyclical trap.
2564
02:13:58,000 --> 02:14:01,280
In the 60-year history of
2565
02:13:59,679 --> 02:14:04,079
semiconductors,
2566
02:14:01,280 --> 02:14:08,159
giants like Texas Instruments, Intel,
2567
02:14:04,079 --> 02:14:11,199
and Samsung have all held the crown only
2568
02:14:08,159 --> 02:14:13,679
to see it slip away.
2569
02:14:11,199 --> 02:14:18,960
Jensen's mission is simple.
2570
02:14:13,679 --> 02:14:22,079
Break the cycle before it breaks him.
2571
02:14:18,960 --> 02:14:24,719
Flashback to September 1996.
2572
02:14:22,079 --> 02:14:27,119
The golden era of the internet is
2573
02:14:24,719 --> 02:14:31,119
dawning for everyone else but for
2574
02:14:27,119 --> 02:14:34,159
Nvidia. It is a death nail.
2575
02:14:31,119 --> 02:14:37,119
Their first chip, the NV1, is a
2576
02:14:34,159 --> 02:14:39,599
technical ghost rejected by Microsoft's
2577
02:14:37,119 --> 02:14:42,159
DirectX.
2578
02:14:39,599 --> 02:14:44,960
Jensen stands before a dwindling team
2579
02:14:42,159 --> 02:14:47,599
and delivers the most famous mantra in
2580
02:14:44,960 --> 02:14:51,520
Silicon Valley history.
2581
02:14:47,599 --> 02:14:55,119
We have exactly 30 days of oxygen left.
2582
02:14:51,520 --> 02:14:57,440
We are 30 days from bankruptcy.
2583
02:14:55,119 --> 02:14:59,840
How does a man go from cleaning toilets
2584
02:14:57,440 --> 02:15:01,840
in a Kentucky reform school to
2585
02:14:59,840 --> 02:15:04,880
controlling the foundational layer of
2586
02:15:01,840 --> 02:15:07,840
the global AI economy?
2587
02:15:04,880 --> 02:15:11,119
From a red leather booth at a Denny's to
2588
02:15:07,840 --> 02:15:13,440
a legal showdown in the US Supreme Court
2589
02:15:11,119 --> 02:15:15,199
over the very intellectual honesty of
2590
02:15:13,440 --> 02:15:17,840
his empire.
2591
02:15:15,199 --> 02:15:19,360
This is not just a story of silicon and
2592
02:15:17,840 --> 02:15:21,520
software.
2593
02:15:19,360 --> 02:15:23,760
This is the chronicle of the man who
2594
02:15:21,520 --> 02:15:25,360
decided to manufacture intelligence
2595
02:15:23,760 --> 02:15:28,960
itself.
2596
02:15:25,360 --> 02:15:32,400
This is Jensen Hang, the architect of
2597
02:15:28,960 --> 02:15:37,639
the digital brain.
2598
02:15:32,400 --> 02:15:37,639
Chapter 1. Forged in the chaos.
2599
02:15:37,760 --> 02:15:43,840
Nvidia was not born from abundance. Its
2600
02:15:41,280 --> 02:15:45,920
DNA was forged in the raw fires of
2601
02:15:43,840 --> 02:15:48,800
survival.
2602
02:15:45,920 --> 02:15:51,440
Jen's son Huang arrived in the United
2603
02:15:48,800 --> 02:15:54,880
States as a young migrant. But his
2604
02:15:51,440 --> 02:15:57,280
destination wasn't an elite prep school.
2605
02:15:54,880 --> 02:15:59,840
Due to a clerical misunderstanding by
2606
02:15:57,280 --> 02:16:03,040
his parents, he was sent to Onida
2607
02:15:59,840 --> 02:16:06,000
Baptist Institute in rural Kentucky, a
2608
02:16:03,040 --> 02:16:08,560
place that at the time functioned more
2609
02:16:06,000 --> 02:16:11,119
as a reform school for troubled youths
2610
02:16:08,560 --> 02:16:14,239
than a traditional academy.
2611
02:16:11,119 --> 02:16:16,320
At 9 years old, the future CEO of one of
2612
02:16:14,239 --> 02:16:18,800
the world's most valuable companies
2613
02:16:16,320 --> 02:16:22,239
wasn't coding. He was cleaning the
2614
02:16:18,800 --> 02:16:24,320
toilets of 150 teenagers every single
2615
02:16:22,239 --> 02:16:26,800
afternoon.
2616
02:16:24,320 --> 02:16:28,480
In his personal transcripts, Jensen
2617
02:16:26,800 --> 02:16:32,000
reflects on this with a chilling
2618
02:16:28,480 --> 02:16:34,399
stoicism. I didn't complain. I just
2619
02:16:32,000 --> 02:16:36,319
learned to work hard.
2620
02:16:34,399 --> 02:16:38,960
Bad boy learned the first law of
2621
02:16:36,319 --> 02:16:42,559
accelerated computing decades before it
2622
02:16:38,960 --> 02:16:45,120
existed. For a system to be efficient,
2623
02:16:42,559 --> 02:16:48,319
it must be able to process chaos under
2624
02:16:45,120 --> 02:16:51,359
extreme pressure.
2625
02:16:48,319 --> 02:16:53,760
By 15, Jensen was the most efficient
2626
02:16:51,359 --> 02:16:56,960
dishwasher and waiter at a Denny's in
2627
02:16:53,760 --> 02:16:59,359
Portland. I was incredibly shy, he
2628
02:16:56,960 --> 02:17:02,399
admits. But the chaos of the kitchen
2629
02:16:59,359 --> 02:17:04,880
forced me out of my shell.
2630
02:17:02,399 --> 02:17:08,479
It is no coincidence that Nvidia was
2631
02:17:04,880 --> 02:17:11,200
founded in 1993 inside a booth at that
2632
02:17:08,479 --> 02:17:13,439
very same restaurant chain.
2633
02:17:11,200 --> 02:17:16,240
While the world saw the dawn of the PC
2634
02:17:13,439 --> 02:17:19,840
as an office tool for spreadsheets,
2635
02:17:16,240 --> 02:17:23,760
Jensen, Chris Mahovski, and Curtis PM
2636
02:17:19,840 --> 02:17:28,080
saw a fatal weakness.
2637
02:17:23,760 --> 02:17:31,200
In 1993, Intel's generalpurpose CPU was
2638
02:17:28,080 --> 02:17:34,240
hitting a physical wall. If the future
2639
02:17:31,200 --> 02:17:36,240
of computing was visual and immersive,
2640
02:17:34,240 --> 02:17:38,240
the traditional serial architecture
2641
02:17:36,240 --> 02:17:40,000
would become the bottleneck of human
2642
02:17:38,240 --> 02:17:43,439
progress.
2643
02:17:40,000 --> 02:17:46,559
With only $40,000 in startup capital,
2644
02:17:43,439 --> 02:17:49,040
they founded Nvidia to chase a ghost,
2645
02:17:46,559 --> 02:17:50,960
accelerated computing,
2646
02:17:49,040 --> 02:17:54,000
they bet on a market the rest of the
2647
02:17:50,960 --> 02:17:57,760
industry dismissed as a niche for toys,
2648
02:17:54,000 --> 02:17:59,519
video games. Before Jensen, video games
2649
02:17:57,760 --> 02:18:01,200
were the ultimate technological
2650
02:17:59,519 --> 02:18:03,200
flywheel.
2651
02:18:01,200 --> 02:18:06,080
He knew that if you could master the
2652
02:18:03,200 --> 02:18:08,240
massive realtime rendering of pixels,
2653
02:18:06,080 --> 02:18:10,319
you could eventually simulate reality
2654
02:18:08,240 --> 02:18:12,800
itself.
2655
02:18:10,319 --> 02:18:15,120
But before they could reach that glory,
2656
02:18:12,800 --> 02:18:19,719
they had to survive their first massive
2657
02:18:15,120 --> 02:18:19,719
technical abyss, the NV1.
2658
02:18:27,040 --> 02:18:34,240
By 1995, Nvidia's first massive bet, the
2659
02:18:31,280 --> 02:18:36,880
NV1 chip, was ready to conquer the
2660
02:18:34,240 --> 02:18:39,920
market. But Jensen Huang had made a
2661
02:18:36,880 --> 02:18:41,519
catastrophic technical gamble.
2662
02:18:39,920 --> 02:18:44,800
At a time when the industry was
2663
02:18:41,519 --> 02:18:47,200
undecided, he bet on quadratic texture
2664
02:18:44,800 --> 02:18:50,479
mapping, a method that used curved
2665
02:18:47,200 --> 02:18:52,960
surfaces to create 3D images.
2666
02:18:50,479 --> 02:18:56,319
It was mathematically intelligent, but
2667
02:18:52,960 --> 02:18:58,319
it was a lonely path. The industry
2668
02:18:56,319 --> 02:19:01,840
hammer dropped when Microsoft released
2669
02:18:58,319 --> 02:19:04,800
its first DirectX API. Microsoft chose
2670
02:19:01,840 --> 02:19:07,519
triangles, not quads, as the universal
2671
02:19:04,800 --> 02:19:09,359
language for PC gaming.
2672
02:19:07,519 --> 02:19:12,800
This decision rendered Nvidia's
2673
02:19:09,359 --> 02:19:16,000
technology instantly obsolete.
2674
02:19:12,800 --> 02:19:18,880
The NV1 wasn't just a failure, it was a
2675
02:19:16,000 --> 02:19:21,280
dead end. The compound, as Jensen
2676
02:19:18,880 --> 02:19:25,960
famously put it, they were staring at
2677
02:19:21,280 --> 02:19:25,960
exactly 30 days of oxygen.
2678
02:19:26,479 --> 02:19:31,679
Nvidia's only lifeline was a strategic
2679
02:19:29,120 --> 02:19:33,519
contract with the Japanese giant Sega to
2680
02:19:31,679 --> 02:19:36,319
build the graphics engine for the Sega
2681
02:19:33,519 --> 02:19:39,280
Saturn. But Jensen was trapped in a
2682
02:19:36,319 --> 02:19:41,439
moral and business dilemma.
2683
02:19:39,280 --> 02:19:44,000
He knew that if they continued building
2684
02:19:41,439 --> 02:19:47,040
the chip for Sega using Nvidia's flawed
2685
02:19:44,000 --> 02:19:49,840
quad technology, Sega would lose the
2686
02:19:47,040 --> 02:19:53,120
console war to Sony's PlayStation and
2687
02:19:49,840 --> 02:19:56,080
Nvidia would eventually perish anyway.
2688
02:19:53,120 --> 02:19:57,840
In an act of intellectual honesty, or as
2689
02:19:56,080 --> 02:20:01,840
many at the time called corporate
2690
02:19:57,840 --> 02:20:05,439
suicide, Jensen flew to Japan. He sat
2691
02:20:01,840 --> 02:20:09,359
across from Shy Chiro Majiri, the CEO of
2692
02:20:05,439 --> 02:20:12,160
Sega, and told him the brutal truth. Our
2693
02:20:09,359 --> 02:20:14,640
technology is on the wrong path. If we
2694
02:20:12,160 --> 02:20:17,359
finish this project, you will produce an
2695
02:20:14,640 --> 02:20:20,160
inferior product.
2696
02:20:17,359 --> 02:20:22,640
Jensen asked for the impossible. He
2697
02:20:20,160 --> 02:20:25,120
asked Sega to terminate the contract,
2698
02:20:22,640 --> 02:20:28,080
but to pay the remaining $5 million
2699
02:20:25,120 --> 02:20:30,560
anyway. If you don't pay us, Jensen
2700
02:20:28,080 --> 02:20:32,479
pleaded. Nvidia will cease to exist
2701
02:20:30,560 --> 02:20:34,880
tomorrow.
2702
02:20:32,479 --> 02:20:38,399
To the astonishment of the tech world,
2703
02:20:34,880 --> 02:20:40,960
Idlim son agreed. He didn't pay for a
2704
02:20:38,399 --> 02:20:43,359
working chip. He paid for Jensen's
2705
02:20:40,960 --> 02:20:46,319
integrity.
2706
02:20:43,359 --> 02:20:48,800
That $5 million was the most expensive
2707
02:20:46,319 --> 02:20:51,600
oxygen in history.
2708
02:20:48,800 --> 02:20:54,000
To make it last, Jensen had to fire half
2709
02:20:51,600 --> 02:20:55,920
of his workforce. These weren't just
2710
02:20:54,000 --> 02:20:58,720
employees. They were friends who had
2711
02:20:55,920 --> 02:21:00,720
shared the Denny's dream. This trauma
2712
02:20:58,720 --> 02:21:03,920
institutionalized a permanent state of
2713
02:21:00,720 --> 02:21:06,800
emergency at Nvidia.
2714
02:21:03,920 --> 02:21:10,720
With the remaining team, Jensen funneled
2715
02:21:06,800 --> 02:21:13,600
every cent into the Reval 128. They
2716
02:21:10,720 --> 02:21:16,080
abandoned quads and embraced Microsoft's
2717
02:21:13,600 --> 02:21:21,600
triangles with a vengeance. When it
2718
02:21:16,080 --> 02:21:24,960
launched in 1997, the Revo 128 was 400%
2719
02:21:21,600 --> 02:21:28,080
faster than anything else on the market.
2720
02:21:24,960 --> 02:21:31,040
It was a dive catch of epic proportions.
2721
02:21:28,080 --> 02:21:34,000
Nvidia was no longer just a survivor. It
2722
02:21:31,040 --> 02:21:36,800
had become a hunter.
2723
02:21:34,000 --> 02:21:40,240
But as Jensen looked at the horizon, he
2724
02:21:36,800 --> 02:21:44,520
saw 70 rivals waiting to kill him. The
2725
02:21:40,240 --> 02:21:44,520
war was only beginning.
2726
02:21:49,600 --> 02:21:55,439
The success of the Reb 128 was a dive
2727
02:21:52,960 --> 02:21:59,600
catch, but it placed Nvidia in the
2728
02:21:55,439 --> 02:22:01,840
middle of a slaughter house. By 1997,
2729
02:21:59,600 --> 02:22:05,280
there were over 70 companies fighting
2730
02:22:01,840 --> 02:22:07,280
for the soul of the 3D graphics market.
2731
02:22:05,280 --> 02:22:10,479
It was a commodity war where price
2732
02:22:07,280 --> 02:22:12,720
cutting was the only weapon for most.
2733
02:22:10,479 --> 02:22:14,960
Jensen Hang realized that if Nvidia
2734
02:22:12,720 --> 02:22:18,560
played by the industry's rules, they
2735
02:22:14,960 --> 02:22:21,840
would eventually be ground into dust.
2736
02:22:18,560 --> 02:22:23,840
He decided to break the laws of time.
2737
02:22:21,840 --> 02:22:27,200
The industry standard for developing a
2738
02:22:23,840 --> 02:22:30,399
new chip was 18 to 24 months. Following
2739
02:22:27,200 --> 02:22:32,640
the steady beat of Moore's law, Jensen
2740
02:22:30,399 --> 02:22:35,760
gathered his engineers and imposed a
2741
02:22:32,640 --> 02:22:38,399
suicidal mandate. Nvidia would release a
2742
02:22:35,760 --> 02:22:42,160
brand new groundbreaking architecture
2743
02:22:38,399 --> 02:22:44,080
every 6 months.
2744
02:22:42,160 --> 02:22:45,680
It was a strategy of relentless
2745
02:22:44,080 --> 02:22:49,120
execution.
2746
02:22:45,680 --> 02:22:52,240
By the time a competitor like 3dfx or S3
2747
02:22:49,120 --> 02:22:55,280
could react to one Nvidia chip, Jensen
2748
02:22:52,240 --> 02:22:57,520
had already launched two more. This
2749
02:22:55,280 --> 02:22:59,760
forced the competition into a permanent
2750
02:22:57,520 --> 02:23:02,720
state of obsolescence.
2751
02:22:59,760 --> 02:23:05,120
To achieve this, Nvidia had to reinvent
2752
02:23:02,720 --> 02:23:07,680
its internal engineering, running
2753
02:23:05,120 --> 02:23:09,760
multiple design teams in parallel. A
2754
02:23:07,680 --> 02:23:11,680
massive financial risk that pushed the
2755
02:23:09,760 --> 02:23:16,160
company to the edge of its operational
2756
02:23:11,680 --> 02:23:22,319
capacity. In 1999, the war reached its
2757
02:23:16,160 --> 02:23:24,960
climax. Nvidia released the GeForce 256.
2758
02:23:22,319 --> 02:23:27,040
Jensen didn't just market it as a faster
2759
02:23:24,960 --> 02:23:31,040
card. He coined a term that would
2760
02:23:27,040 --> 02:23:34,000
redefine computing history, the GPU,
2761
02:23:31,040 --> 02:23:37,120
graphics processing unit. This wasn't
2762
02:23:34,000 --> 02:23:38,720
just branding. Technically, the GeForce
2763
02:23:37,120 --> 02:23:40,640
256
2764
02:23:38,720 --> 02:23:42,720
moved the transform and lighting
2765
02:23:40,640 --> 02:23:46,000
calculations, the most heavy
2766
02:23:42,720 --> 02:23:48,960
mathematical lifting of 3D off the CPU
2767
02:23:46,000 --> 02:23:51,520
and onto the chip itself. It was the
2768
02:23:48,960 --> 02:23:54,000
birth of a new era.
2769
02:23:51,520 --> 02:23:55,920
This performance leap was so massive
2770
02:23:54,000 --> 02:23:57,920
that Nvidia secured the prestigious
2771
02:23:55,920 --> 02:24:01,840
contract for the original Microsoft
2772
02:23:57,920 --> 02:24:04,319
Xbox, receiving a crucial $200 million
2773
02:24:01,840 --> 02:24:07,439
advance.
2774
02:24:04,319 --> 02:24:10,080
The six-month cycle worked. By the early
2775
02:24:07,439 --> 02:24:14,399
2000s, the 70 competitors had been
2776
02:24:10,080 --> 02:24:17,280
reduced to just two, Nvidia and ATI.
2777
02:24:14,399 --> 02:24:19,600
In a final act of dominance, Nvidia
2778
02:24:17,280 --> 02:24:24,080
acquired the assets of its former idol
2779
02:24:19,600 --> 02:24:27,359
and arch rival 3dfx in 2000.
2780
02:24:24,080 --> 02:24:30,880
Jensen had cleared the board. He was the
2781
02:24:27,359 --> 02:24:33,520
undisputed king of gaming. But at the
2782
02:24:30,880 --> 02:24:35,200
very moment of his greatest triumph, he
2783
02:24:33,520 --> 02:24:38,000
began to look at the higherformance
2784
02:24:35,200 --> 02:24:40,399
computing market. He realized that the
2785
02:24:38,000 --> 02:24:43,280
GPU's massive parallel math could do
2786
02:24:40,399 --> 02:24:46,319
more than just draw pixels. It could
2787
02:24:43,280 --> 02:24:49,760
solve the world's most complex problems.
2788
02:24:46,319 --> 02:24:54,120
The seeds of CUDA and the $10 billion
2789
02:24:49,760 --> 02:24:54,120
gamble were being planted.
2790
02:24:59,439 --> 02:25:06,240
By 2006, Nvidia was the undisputed king
2791
02:25:03,120 --> 02:25:08,800
of the gaming world. But Jensen Huang
2792
02:25:06,240 --> 02:25:11,040
was restless. He realized that the same
2793
02:25:08,800 --> 02:25:13,680
parallel processing power that rendered
2794
02:25:11,040 --> 02:25:15,600
pixels for World of Warcraft could be
2795
02:25:13,680 --> 02:25:18,080
used to solve the world's most complex
2796
02:25:15,600 --> 02:25:21,760
mathematical problems.
2797
02:25:18,080 --> 02:25:24,399
He launched CUDA, compute unified device
2798
02:25:21,760 --> 02:25:27,920
architecture. It was a declaration of
2799
02:25:24,399 --> 02:25:30,720
war against the CPUcentric world.
2800
02:25:27,920 --> 02:25:33,600
The goal was simple yet insane.
2801
02:25:30,720 --> 02:25:36,399
Transform every NVIDIA GPU into a
2802
02:25:33,600 --> 02:25:38,479
generalpurpose supercomput.
2803
02:25:36,399 --> 02:25:42,319
But this decision came with a staggering
2804
02:25:38,479 --> 02:25:44,800
cost. Jensen mandated that every single
2805
02:25:42,319 --> 02:25:46,960
GPU Nvidia manufactured from the
2806
02:25:44,800 --> 02:25:49,600
high-end workstation cards to the
2807
02:25:46,960 --> 02:25:52,000
cheapest laptop chips must include the
2808
02:25:49,600 --> 02:25:54,479
extra transistors and hardware logic to
2809
02:25:52,000 --> 02:25:58,080
support CUDA.
2810
02:25:54,479 --> 02:26:00,640
Wall Street was horrified.
2811
02:25:58,080 --> 02:26:04,160
For nearly a decade, Nvidia spent
2812
02:26:00,640 --> 02:26:07,439
billions, estimated at over $10 billion
2813
02:26:04,160 --> 02:26:10,240
in cumulative R&D on a software platform
2814
02:26:07,439 --> 02:26:12,240
that almost no one was using.
2815
02:26:10,240 --> 02:26:14,640
Profit margins, which once sat
2816
02:26:12,240 --> 02:26:17,200
comfortably high, were sacrificed at the
2817
02:26:14,640 --> 02:26:20,160
altar of this vision.
2818
02:26:17,200 --> 02:26:23,680
Analysts mocked the strategy, calling it
2819
02:26:20,160 --> 02:26:26,479
the bridge to nowhere. During the 2008
2820
02:26:23,680 --> 02:26:29,120
financial crisis, Nvidia's market cap
2821
02:26:26,479 --> 02:26:32,240
plummeted and the company was once again
2822
02:26:29,120 --> 02:26:33,920
staring into the abyss.
2823
02:26:32,240 --> 02:26:36,720
But Jensen wasn't just building
2824
02:26:33,920 --> 02:26:39,840
hardware. He was building a software
2825
02:26:36,720 --> 02:26:42,399
moat. He sent Nvidia engineers to
2826
02:26:39,840 --> 02:26:44,560
universities around the world, helping
2827
02:26:42,399 --> 02:26:46,640
professors teach parallel programming
2828
02:26:44,560 --> 02:26:49,200
using CUDA.
2829
02:26:46,640 --> 02:26:51,920
He was seeding the ground. While
2830
02:26:49,200 --> 02:26:54,880
competitors like Intel and AMD focused
2831
02:26:51,920 --> 02:26:57,439
on making faster chips, Jensen was
2832
02:26:54,880 --> 02:26:59,760
building an entire language.
2833
02:26:57,439 --> 02:27:02,319
By the time a developer learned CUDA,
2834
02:26:59,760 --> 02:27:04,399
they were locked in. Switching to a
2835
02:27:02,319 --> 02:27:06,800
competitor wouldn't just mean buying a
2836
02:27:04,399 --> 02:27:10,160
new chip. It would mean rewriting
2837
02:27:06,800 --> 02:27:13,280
millions of lines of code.
2838
02:27:10,160 --> 02:27:15,920
Year after year, Jensen defended CUDA in
2839
02:27:13,280 --> 02:27:18,080
boardrooms and earning calls. He
2840
02:27:15,920 --> 02:27:20,399
practiced what he calls long-term
2841
02:27:18,080 --> 02:27:23,200
commitment to a vision, even when the
2842
02:27:20,399 --> 02:27:25,600
data didn't yet support it. He was
2843
02:27:23,200 --> 02:27:27,120
waiting for a killer app for accelerated
2844
02:27:25,600 --> 02:27:29,439
computing.
2845
02:27:27,120 --> 02:27:32,000
He didn't know what it would be. But he
2846
02:27:29,439 --> 02:27:34,399
knew that as data grew exponentially,
2847
02:27:32,000 --> 02:27:36,399
the serial processing of the CPU would
2848
02:27:34,399 --> 02:27:38,880
eventually fail.
2849
02:27:36,399 --> 02:27:40,640
The silence of the Cuda winter was about
2850
02:27:38,880 --> 02:27:43,680
to be broken.
2851
02:27:40,640 --> 02:27:46,880
In a lab at the University of Toronto, a
2852
02:27:43,680 --> 02:27:49,359
PhD student named Alex Kresvki was about
2853
02:27:46,880 --> 02:27:52,399
to feed a neural network called Alexet
2854
02:27:49,359 --> 02:27:54,800
into those Nvidia GPUs.
2855
02:27:52,399 --> 02:27:57,920
The big bang of artificial intelligence
2856
02:27:54,800 --> 02:28:00,319
was seconds away, and Jensen Hang was
2857
02:27:57,920 --> 02:28:04,760
the only person on Earth who had already
2858
02:28:00,319 --> 02:28:04,760
built the engine to power it.
2859
02:28:10,240 --> 02:28:14,160
The year was 2012.
2860
02:28:12,560 --> 02:28:17,120
While the world saw just another
2861
02:28:14,160 --> 02:28:19,280
academic competition, Jensen Huang saw
2862
02:28:17,120 --> 02:28:20,880
the spark that would ignite a global
2863
02:28:19,280 --> 02:28:24,160
revolution.
2864
02:28:20,880 --> 02:28:27,520
A neural network called AlexNet, powered
2865
02:28:24,160 --> 02:28:30,720
by Nvidia GPUs, crushed the competition
2866
02:28:27,520 --> 02:28:33,359
in image recognition. It was the big
2867
02:28:30,720 --> 02:28:36,080
bang of deep learning.
2868
02:28:33,359 --> 02:28:39,280
Jensen didn't just celebrate, he pivoted
2869
02:28:36,080 --> 02:28:42,399
the entire company. He realized that the
2870
02:28:39,280 --> 02:28:46,640
$10 billion gamble on CUDA had finally
2871
02:28:42,399 --> 02:28:48,880
found its soul, artificial intelligence.
2872
02:28:46,640 --> 02:28:51,120
This pivot transformed Nvidia from a
2873
02:28:48,880 --> 02:28:53,280
graphics card company into the
2874
02:28:51,120 --> 02:28:56,319
foundational engine of the world's most
2875
02:28:53,280 --> 02:28:58,080
powerful data centers.
2876
02:28:56,319 --> 02:29:01,280
Jensen's vision was no longer about
2877
02:28:58,080 --> 02:29:02,800
drawing pixels. It was about generative
2878
02:29:01,280 --> 02:29:05,600
AI.
2879
02:29:02,800 --> 02:29:08,800
By the time Chat GPT launched in late
2880
02:29:05,600 --> 02:29:11,280
2022, Nvidia didn't just have a head
2881
02:29:08,800 --> 02:29:14,600
start. They were the only ones at the
2882
02:29:11,280 --> 02:29:14,600
starting line.
2883
02:29:14,640 --> 02:29:19,439
Jensen acted with a speed that terrified
2884
02:29:16,880 --> 02:29:22,479
his competitors. He didn't just wait for
2885
02:29:19,439 --> 02:29:26,399
orders. He re-engineered Nvidia's entire
2886
02:29:22,479 --> 02:29:29,760
road map. In 2016, he personally
2887
02:29:26,399 --> 02:29:32,560
delivered the first Nvidia DGX1,
2888
02:29:29,760 --> 02:29:35,359
the world's first AI supercomput in a
2889
02:29:32,560 --> 02:29:39,359
box to a then small nonprofit called
2890
02:29:35,359 --> 02:29:42,920
Open AAI. He was very clear, this will
2891
02:29:39,359 --> 02:29:42,920
change the world.
2892
02:29:43,680 --> 02:29:47,040
Technically, this period was about
2893
02:29:45,439 --> 02:29:49,439
specialization.
2894
02:29:47,040 --> 02:29:52,319
Nvidia began adding tensor cores to its
2895
02:29:49,439 --> 02:29:54,000
chips. These weren't for graphics. They
2896
02:29:52,319 --> 02:29:55,920
were designed specifically for the deep
2897
02:29:54,000 --> 02:29:57,680
learning math that powers neural
2898
02:29:55,920 --> 02:29:59,600
networks.
2899
02:29:57,680 --> 02:30:02,160
Nvidia was no longer just making a
2900
02:29:59,600 --> 02:30:04,319
faster graphics card. It was building a
2901
02:30:02,160 --> 02:30:08,319
specialized brain.
2902
02:30:04,319 --> 02:30:10,640
By 2017, the momentum was unstoppable.
2903
02:30:08,319 --> 02:30:12,800
Every major tech giant was building AI
2904
02:30:10,640 --> 02:30:15,040
labs and they all had one thing in
2905
02:30:12,800 --> 02:30:16,720
common. They were built on Nvidia's
2906
02:30:15,040 --> 02:30:18,960
stack.
2907
02:30:16,720 --> 02:30:21,600
This was the era when the software mode
2908
02:30:18,960 --> 02:30:23,040
became a fortress. Thousands of
2909
02:30:21,600 --> 02:30:26,319
researchers were now writing their
2910
02:30:23,040 --> 02:30:28,160
doctoral thesis on CUDA.
2911
02:30:26,319 --> 02:30:30,640
If a competitor wanted to challenge
2912
02:30:28,160 --> 02:30:33,200
Nvidia, they wouldn't just need a better
2913
02:30:30,640 --> 02:30:35,760
chip. They would have to convince the
2914
02:30:33,200 --> 02:30:38,640
world's brightest minds to forget
2915
02:30:35,760 --> 02:30:41,359
everything they had learned.
2916
02:30:38,640 --> 02:30:44,560
But as the AI revolution took hold, an
2917
02:30:41,359 --> 02:30:47,040
unexpected shadow emerged. A new craze
2918
02:30:44,560 --> 02:30:49,600
called Bitcoin and Ethereum began to
2919
02:30:47,040 --> 02:30:52,720
consume Nvidia's supply.
2920
02:30:49,600 --> 02:30:56,399
to the world. Nvidia looked invincible,
2921
02:30:52,720 --> 02:30:58,080
but internally Jensen was wary. Jensen
2922
02:30:56,399 --> 02:30:59,600
knew that every bubble eventually
2923
02:30:58,080 --> 02:31:02,000
bursts.
2924
02:30:59,600 --> 02:31:04,319
This period of explosive accidental
2925
02:31:02,000 --> 02:31:07,439
growth from crypto miners was creating a
2926
02:31:04,319 --> 02:31:09,680
shadow over the company's true mission,
2927
02:31:07,439 --> 02:31:12,479
setting the stage for a highstakes legal
2928
02:31:09,680 --> 02:31:14,479
battle over corporate transparency and a
2929
02:31:12,479 --> 02:31:18,439
financial storm that would test the very
2930
02:31:14,479 --> 02:31:18,439
foundations of his leadership.
2931
02:31:22,160 --> 02:31:28,080
In 2018, Nvidia was riding a wave that
2932
02:31:25,520 --> 02:31:31,200
looked like a miracle, but felt like a
2933
02:31:28,080 --> 02:31:33,359
mirage. The explosion of cryptocurrency
2934
02:31:31,200 --> 02:31:36,000
mining had created an insatiable hunger
2935
02:31:33,359 --> 02:31:38,640
for GeForce cards.
2936
02:31:36,000 --> 02:31:41,600
To the outside world, Nvidia's revenue
2937
02:31:38,640 --> 02:31:43,760
was reaching historic heights. However,
2938
02:31:41,600 --> 02:31:46,720
beneath the surface, a dangerous
2939
02:31:43,760 --> 02:31:48,720
ambiguity was growing. Jensen Huang
2940
02:31:46,720 --> 02:31:51,439
insisted that the growth was driven by a
2941
02:31:48,720 --> 02:31:55,359
gaming renaissance, but the reality was
2942
02:31:51,439 --> 02:31:57,439
more volatile. The mirage evaporated in
2943
02:31:55,359 --> 02:32:00,240
late 2018.
2944
02:31:57,439 --> 02:32:03,760
The crypto winter arrived and the demand
2945
02:32:00,240 --> 02:32:05,600
for mining chips vanished overnight.
2946
02:32:03,760 --> 02:32:08,000
Nvidia was left with a massive surplus
2947
02:32:05,600 --> 02:32:10,640
of inventory and the market's reaction
2948
02:32:08,000 --> 02:32:14,880
was brutal. The company's stock price
2949
02:32:10,640 --> 02:32:17,439
plummeted by 28% in a single day.
2950
02:32:14,880 --> 02:32:21,439
The invincible architect of AI was
2951
02:32:17,439 --> 02:32:23,200
suddenly facing a crisis of credibility.
2952
02:32:21,439 --> 02:32:24,880
This financial collapse ignited a
2953
02:32:23,200 --> 02:32:26,800
highstakes legal battle that would
2954
02:32:24,880 --> 02:32:28,800
eventually reach the steps of the US
2955
02:32:26,800 --> 02:32:31,120
Supreme Court.
2956
02:32:28,800 --> 02:32:33,600
A group of institutional investors filed
2957
02:32:31,120 --> 02:32:36,080
a class action lawsuit alleging that
2958
02:32:33,600 --> 02:32:38,960
Jensen Hang had deliberately misled the
2959
02:32:36,080 --> 02:32:43,680
market. The core of the case rested on a
2960
02:32:38,960 --> 02:32:45,680
single devastating word, ci. The intent
2961
02:32:43,680 --> 02:32:48,160
to deceive.
2962
02:32:45,680 --> 02:32:50,160
The accusation was sharp. Investors
2963
02:32:48,160 --> 02:32:52,399
claimed that internal Nvidia reports
2964
02:32:50,160 --> 02:32:54,880
clearly showed over a billion dollars in
2965
02:32:52,399 --> 02:32:57,600
revenue attributed to gamers was
2966
02:32:54,880 --> 02:32:59,920
actually coming from crypto miners.
2967
02:32:57,600 --> 02:33:02,160
Jensen fought back, defending his
2968
02:32:59,920 --> 02:33:04,240
intellectual honesty and arguing that
2969
02:33:02,160 --> 02:33:07,280
the expert opinions used against him
2970
02:33:04,240 --> 02:33:09,680
were nothing more than speculation.
2971
02:33:07,280 --> 02:33:12,000
This battle known as petition number
2972
02:33:09,680 --> 02:33:14,080
23-970
2973
02:33:12,000 --> 02:33:16,800
became a landmark moment for Silicon
2974
02:33:14,080 --> 02:33:18,800
Valley, questioning how much a CEO must
2975
02:33:16,800 --> 02:33:20,640
disclose when their technology
2976
02:33:18,800 --> 02:33:23,840
accidentally conquers a market they
2977
02:33:20,640 --> 02:33:26,240
didn't intend to lead.
2978
02:33:23,840 --> 02:33:28,080
While lawyers argued in Washington,
2979
02:33:26,240 --> 02:33:30,880
Jensen was already looking past the
2980
02:33:28,080 --> 02:33:33,280
wreckage. He didn't let the legal storm
2981
02:33:30,880 --> 02:33:35,680
or the inventory crisis slowed down his
2982
02:33:33,280 --> 02:33:38,319
ultimate plan. He doubled down on the
2983
02:33:35,680 --> 02:33:40,960
data center, acquiring Melanox for $7
2984
02:33:38,319 --> 02:33:42,720
billion to control the highways between
2985
02:33:40,960 --> 02:33:44,720
his chips.
2986
02:33:42,720 --> 02:33:47,200
He was preparing for a world where AI
2987
02:33:44,720 --> 02:33:49,280
wouldn't just be a research project, but
2988
02:33:47,200 --> 02:33:50,960
the operating system of the entire
2989
02:33:49,280 --> 02:33:53,680
planet.
2990
02:33:50,960 --> 02:33:56,160
The storm of 2018 had been a warning.
2991
02:33:53,680 --> 02:33:59,880
The era of generative AI was about to
2992
02:33:56,160 --> 02:33:59,880
provide the answer.
2993
02:34:03,760 --> 02:34:08,560
By 2022,
2994
02:34:05,680 --> 02:34:10,800
the world had changed. The launch of
2995
02:34:08,560 --> 02:34:13,680
Chat GPT signaled the arrival of the
2996
02:34:10,800 --> 02:34:16,960
generative AI era, and Nvidia was the
2997
02:34:13,680 --> 02:34:19,200
only company prepared to power it.
2998
02:34:16,960 --> 02:34:22,240
But as Jensen Hang stood on the brink of
2999
02:34:19,200 --> 02:34:25,359
total market dominance, a new wall was
3000
02:34:22,240 --> 02:34:27,200
built, not by a competitor, but by the
3001
02:34:25,359 --> 02:34:28,960
US government.
3002
02:34:27,200 --> 02:34:31,760
Washington imposed strict export
3003
02:34:28,960 --> 02:34:35,840
controls on high-end AI chips. For
3004
02:34:31,760 --> 02:34:37,760
Nvidia, the stakes were astronomical.
3005
02:34:35,840 --> 02:34:40,720
According to the geographical revenue
3006
02:34:37,760 --> 02:34:44,000
data, China accounted for approximately
3007
02:34:40,720 --> 02:34:45,840
20% to 25% of the company's total
3008
02:34:44,000 --> 02:34:48,240
business.
3009
02:34:45,840 --> 02:34:50,720
Overnight, Jensen had to navigate a
3010
02:34:48,240 --> 02:34:52,479
geopolitical minefield, redesigning
3011
02:34:50,720 --> 02:34:54,640
chips specifically to comply with
3012
02:34:52,479 --> 02:34:56,560
regulations while trying to keep his
3013
02:34:54,640 --> 02:34:58,720
most important market from slipping
3014
02:34:56,560 --> 02:35:01,040
away.
3015
02:34:58,720 --> 02:35:03,040
Jensen's answer to the geopolitical and
3016
02:35:01,040 --> 02:35:06,960
technical pressure was the Blackwall
3017
02:35:03,040 --> 02:35:10,080
architecture. If the H100 was a spark,
3018
02:35:06,960 --> 02:35:13,520
Blackwell was a sun. Packing an
3019
02:35:10,080 --> 02:35:15,439
incredible 208 billion transistors, it
3020
02:35:13,520 --> 02:35:19,200
delivered up to 30 times the performance
3021
02:35:15,439 --> 02:35:21,120
of its predecessor for certain AI tasks.
3022
02:35:19,200 --> 02:35:23,920
But Blackwell represented a deeper
3023
02:35:21,120 --> 02:35:26,800
strategic shift. Nvidia was no longer
3024
02:35:23,920 --> 02:35:29,760
just a chipmaker.
3025
02:35:26,800 --> 02:35:31,280
Jensen was now building entire AI
3026
02:35:29,760 --> 02:35:33,439
factories.
3027
02:35:31,280 --> 02:35:35,920
By integrating Melanox networking
3028
02:35:33,439 --> 02:35:37,920
technology, he controlled the highways
3029
02:35:35,920 --> 02:35:39,920
that allowed thousands of chips to talk
3030
02:35:37,920 --> 02:35:42,479
to each other as if they were a single
3031
02:35:39,920 --> 02:35:44,800
giant brain.
3032
02:35:42,479 --> 02:35:46,640
This system on a cluster approach meant
3033
02:35:44,800 --> 02:35:49,120
that even if a competitor produced a
3034
02:35:46,640 --> 02:35:50,800
faster individual chip, they couldn't
3035
02:35:49,120 --> 02:35:53,840
compete with the sheer efficiency of the
3036
02:35:50,800 --> 02:35:56,479
Nvidia ecosystem.
3037
02:35:53,840 --> 02:35:59,680
The financial results were staggering.
3038
02:35:56,479 --> 02:36:04,000
By early 2024, Nvidia's data center
3039
02:35:59,680 --> 02:36:08,319
revenue had surged to over 47 billion, a
3040
02:36:04,000 --> 02:36:11,200
217% increase in a single year. The
3041
02:36:08,319 --> 02:36:13,760
company was operating with 78.4%
3042
02:36:11,200 --> 02:36:16,240
gross margins, profit levels usually
3043
02:36:13,760 --> 02:36:18,720
reserved for software giants, not
3044
02:36:16,240 --> 02:36:22,479
hardware manufacturers.
3045
02:36:18,720 --> 02:36:25,760
On June 18th, 2024, Nvidia became the
3046
02:36:22,479 --> 02:36:28,640
most valuable company on the planet.
3047
02:36:25,760 --> 02:36:31,840
Yet, even as he stood at the summit,
3048
02:36:28,640 --> 02:36:34,640
Jensen refused to relax. He looked the
3049
02:36:31,840 --> 02:36:37,359
60-year history of semiconductors, the
3050
02:36:34,640 --> 02:36:40,000
rise and fall of Intel, the cycles of
3051
02:36:37,359 --> 02:36:42,160
Samsung and TI, and he knew that being
3052
02:36:40,000 --> 02:36:45,600
on top was the most dangerous place to
3053
02:36:42,160 --> 02:36:48,880
be. His next challenge wouldn't just be
3054
02:36:45,600 --> 02:36:52,520
about chips. It would be about giving AI
3055
02:36:48,880 --> 02:36:52,520
a physical body.
3056
02:36:56,319 --> 02:37:01,520
In 2024, Jensen Hang had already
3057
02:36:59,280 --> 02:37:03,840
conquered the digital world, but his
3058
02:37:01,520 --> 02:37:06,560
eyes were fixed on a new frontier, the
3059
02:37:03,840 --> 02:37:09,359
physical one. He declared that the next
3060
02:37:06,560 --> 02:37:11,200
wave of AI would be physical AI.
3061
02:37:09,359 --> 02:37:14,240
Intelligence that doesn't just process
3062
02:37:11,200 --> 02:37:16,080
text or images, but understands the laws
3063
02:37:14,240 --> 02:37:18,399
of physics.
3064
02:37:16,080 --> 02:37:21,439
Everything that moves from autonomous
3065
02:37:18,399 --> 02:37:24,560
cars to humanoid robots would eventually
3066
02:37:21,439 --> 02:37:26,960
be powered by an Nvidia brain.
3067
02:37:24,560 --> 02:37:30,640
This identifies it as the third pillar
3068
02:37:26,960 --> 02:37:33,680
of Nvidia's future. To win this race,
3069
02:37:30,640 --> 02:37:35,760
Jensen isn't just building chips. He is
3070
02:37:33,680 --> 02:37:37,920
building the omniverse.
3071
02:37:35,760 --> 02:37:40,000
This is a digital world where robots are
3072
02:37:37,920 --> 02:37:42,880
trained millions of times in a virtual
3073
02:37:40,000 --> 02:37:45,040
simulation before they ever step into a
3074
02:37:42,880 --> 02:37:47,760
real factory.
3075
02:37:45,040 --> 02:37:49,840
By the time a robot starts its job, it
3076
02:37:47,760 --> 02:37:53,040
has already lived a thousand lifetimes
3077
02:37:49,840 --> 02:37:55,680
of experience. Jensen's strategy is a
3078
02:37:53,040 --> 02:37:57,920
total vertical integration. He is
3079
02:37:55,680 --> 02:37:59,920
transforming Nvidia into a provider of
3080
02:37:57,920 --> 02:38:02,160
AI factories.
3081
02:37:59,920 --> 02:38:04,560
He believes that in the future, every
3082
02:38:02,160 --> 02:38:06,800
company will have two factories, one
3083
02:38:04,560 --> 02:38:09,920
that produces physical goods and a
3084
02:38:06,800 --> 02:38:12,080
digital one that produces intelligence.
3085
02:38:09,920 --> 02:38:14,080
With the Melanox networking, high-speed
3086
02:38:12,080 --> 02:38:16,640
highways, and the CUDA software
3087
02:38:14,080 --> 02:38:18,479
fortress, Jensen has ensured that the
3088
02:38:16,640 --> 02:38:21,840
entire infrastructure of this new
3089
02:38:18,479 --> 02:38:24,640
industrial revolution runs on Nvidia.
3090
02:38:21,840 --> 02:38:26,640
When asked about his legacy, Jensen
3091
02:38:24,640 --> 02:38:29,439
doesn't talk about stock prices or
3092
02:38:26,640 --> 02:38:31,840
trillions of dollars. He talks about
3093
02:38:29,439 --> 02:38:33,439
material sciences and scientific
3094
02:38:31,840 --> 02:38:35,520
discovery.
3095
02:38:33,439 --> 02:38:38,160
He believes AI will give humans
3096
02:38:35,520 --> 02:38:40,960
superpowers, helping us solve climate
3097
02:38:38,160 --> 02:38:43,120
change, cure diseases, and handle the
3098
02:38:40,960 --> 02:38:46,080
dangerous and mundane tasks so we can
3099
02:38:43,120 --> 02:38:49,080
focus on what truly makes us human,
3100
02:38:46,080 --> 02:38:49,080
curiosity.
3101
02:38:51,680 --> 02:38:56,080
By 2025,
3102
02:38:53,680 --> 02:38:57,840
the world had entered a state of compute
3103
02:38:56,080 --> 02:39:00,960
geopolitics.
3104
02:38:57,840 --> 02:39:03,600
Nvidia was no longer just a company. It
3105
02:39:00,960 --> 02:39:06,720
had become a strategic resource similar
3106
02:39:03,600 --> 02:39:10,319
to oil or grain. The launch of the
3107
02:39:06,720 --> 02:39:13,120
Blackwell B200 hadn't just met demand.
3108
02:39:10,319 --> 02:39:16,640
It had ignited a global scramble.
3109
02:39:13,120 --> 02:39:19,520
Nations like Japan, France, and the UAE
3110
02:39:16,640 --> 02:39:21,120
began building sovereign AI clouds.
3111
02:39:19,520 --> 02:39:23,439
Realizing that depending on a few
3112
02:39:21,120 --> 02:39:26,399
Silicon Valley giants for intelligence
3113
02:39:23,439 --> 02:39:29,760
was a national security risk.
3114
02:39:26,399 --> 02:39:33,520
But as 2025 progressed, a new whisper
3115
02:39:29,760 --> 02:39:36,479
began to haunt the industry. The wall.
3116
02:39:33,520 --> 02:39:39,280
For years, AI progress relied on scaling
3117
02:39:36,479 --> 02:39:41,600
laws. The idea that more data and more
3118
02:39:39,280 --> 02:39:45,520
GPUs would inevitably lead to more
3119
02:39:41,600 --> 02:39:48,240
intelligence. However, in 2026, the
3120
02:39:45,520 --> 02:39:50,800
returns are starting to diminish. Data
3121
02:39:48,240 --> 02:39:52,800
centers are becoming so massive, they
3122
02:39:50,800 --> 02:39:55,280
require their own dedicated nuclear
3123
02:39:52,800 --> 02:39:58,800
power plants. and the lowhanging fruit
3124
02:39:55,280 --> 02:40:01,040
of internet data has been exhausted.
3125
02:39:58,800 --> 02:40:03,680
Jensen's response to the wall is
3126
02:40:01,040 --> 02:40:05,760
typically defiant. He pivoted the
3127
02:40:03,680 --> 02:40:09,680
industry towards synthetic data and
3128
02:40:05,760 --> 02:40:12,160
reasoning models. In 2026, Nvidia's
3129
02:40:09,680 --> 02:40:16,560
focus has shifted from simply training
3130
02:40:12,160 --> 02:40:18,880
AI to inference at scale. The goal is no
3131
02:40:16,560 --> 02:40:21,280
longer just to build a model that knows
3132
02:40:18,880 --> 02:40:23,439
everything, but to build a system that
3133
02:40:21,280 --> 02:40:25,840
thinks through a problem for days, if
3134
02:40:23,439 --> 02:40:29,600
necessary, using massive clusters of
3135
02:40:25,840 --> 02:40:32,880
GPUs to reach a breakthrough.
3136
02:40:29,600 --> 02:40:36,080
The competition in 2026 has never been
3137
02:40:32,880 --> 02:40:38,560
fiercer. Nvidia's biggest customers,
3138
02:40:36,080 --> 02:40:40,720
Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, have
3139
02:40:38,560 --> 02:40:42,640
become its most dangerous rivals,
3140
02:40:40,720 --> 02:40:47,120
pouring billions into their own custom
3141
02:40:42,640 --> 02:40:50,000
AI chips to escape the NVIDIA tax. Yet,
3142
02:40:47,120 --> 02:40:52,399
the software mode remains unreached.
3143
02:40:50,000 --> 02:40:54,720
While others build chips, Jensen is
3144
02:40:52,399 --> 02:40:57,200
building the entire ecosystem, the
3145
02:40:54,720 --> 02:40:58,720
networking, the libraries, and the
3146
02:40:57,200 --> 02:41:01,600
pre-trained models that make a
3147
02:40:58,720 --> 02:41:04,880
competitor's hardware feel like a relic
3148
02:41:01,600 --> 02:41:07,680
before it even leaves the factory.
3149
02:41:04,880 --> 02:41:09,280
In this era, Jensen Hong has become one
3150
02:41:07,680 --> 02:41:12,160
of the world's most influential
3151
02:41:09,280 --> 02:41:14,399
diplomat. He navigates a world where the
3152
02:41:12,160 --> 02:41:16,319
power grid is the new bottleneck and
3153
02:41:14,399 --> 02:41:18,160
where a single shipment of chips can
3154
02:41:16,319 --> 02:41:19,840
determine the economic future of a
3155
02:41:18,160 --> 02:41:22,640
country.
3156
02:41:19,840 --> 02:41:25,840
The trillion dollar question of 2026 is
3157
02:41:22,640 --> 02:41:27,920
no longer if AI will change the world,
3158
02:41:25,840 --> 02:41:31,160
but who will own the infrastructure of
3159
02:41:27,920 --> 02:41:31,160
that change.
3160
02:41:34,479 --> 02:41:39,040
The story of Nvidia is often told as a
3161
02:41:36,960 --> 02:41:41,920
series of lucky breaks or inevitable
3162
02:41:39,040 --> 02:41:44,960
triumphs. But as we look at the empire
3163
02:41:41,920 --> 02:41:47,359
Jensen Huang has built, the reality is
3164
02:41:44,960 --> 02:41:49,359
far more deliberate and far more
3165
02:41:47,359 --> 02:41:52,319
precarious.
3166
02:41:49,359 --> 02:41:54,080
In 2026, the company stands at the
3167
02:41:52,319 --> 02:41:56,319
center of the greatest industrial shift
3168
02:41:54,080 --> 02:41:59,200
in human history.
3169
02:41:56,319 --> 02:42:01,760
Yet for Jensen, the valuation of three,
3170
02:41:59,200 --> 02:42:04,720
four, or 5 trillion is a lagging
3171
02:42:01,760 --> 02:42:06,399
indicator. The true metric is the
3172
02:42:04,720 --> 02:42:08,319
oxygen.
3173
02:42:06,399 --> 02:42:10,240
Throughout his journey, from the dish
3174
02:42:08,319 --> 02:42:12,880
pits of Denny's to the halls of the
3175
02:42:10,240 --> 02:42:16,240
Supreme Court, Jensen has maintained a
3176
02:42:12,880 --> 02:42:18,800
philosophy of intellectual honesty.
3177
02:42:16,240 --> 02:42:21,600
He admits when the technology is wrong.
3178
02:42:18,800 --> 02:42:23,600
He pivots when the market shifts. And he
3179
02:42:21,600 --> 02:42:26,080
invests billions when the world calls
3180
02:42:23,600 --> 02:42:27,840
him a fool. He has turned a
3181
02:42:26,080 --> 02:42:30,479
semiconductor company into a
3182
02:42:27,840 --> 02:42:33,600
geopolitical superpower, a software
3183
02:42:30,479 --> 02:42:35,920
fortress, and the primary architect of a
3184
02:42:33,600 --> 02:42:37,920
new form of life.
3185
02:42:35,920 --> 02:42:40,479
Critics ask if Nvidia is a bubble
3186
02:42:37,920 --> 02:42:43,359
waiting to burst, or if the scaling laws
3187
02:42:40,479 --> 02:42:45,200
of AI will eventually hit a dead end.
3188
02:42:43,359 --> 02:42:47,760
But Jensen doesn't operate on the
3189
02:42:45,200 --> 02:42:50,080
timeline of a stock market cycle. He
3190
02:42:47,760 --> 02:42:51,760
operates on the timeline of human
3191
02:42:50,080 --> 02:42:54,479
evolution.
3192
02:42:51,760 --> 02:42:56,000
He isn't just selling chips. He is
3193
02:42:54,479 --> 02:42:58,640
selling the marginal cost of
3194
02:42:56,000 --> 02:43:01,359
intelligence, making the most valuable
3195
02:42:58,640 --> 02:43:04,240
resource in the universe so abundant
3196
02:43:01,359 --> 02:43:06,800
that it changes the very definition of
3197
02:43:04,240 --> 02:43:08,960
what is possible.
3198
02:43:06,800 --> 02:43:10,880
Jensen often says that he wakes up every
3199
02:43:08,960 --> 02:43:12,399
morning with the same feeling he had in
3200
02:43:10,880 --> 02:43:14,319
1993.
3201
02:43:12,399 --> 02:43:16,160
the feeling that the company is going
3202
02:43:14,319 --> 02:43:18,560
out of business.
3203
02:43:16,160 --> 02:43:20,720
It is this productive paranoia that
3204
02:43:18,560 --> 02:43:23,840
prevents the cyclical trap that claim
3205
02:43:20,720 --> 02:43:26,640
the giants of the past. He doesn't want
3206
02:43:23,840 --> 02:43:29,359
to be the king of a legacy. He wants to
3207
02:43:26,640 --> 02:43:33,600
be the architect of a future that hasn't
3208
02:43:29,359 --> 02:43:37,040
even been imagined yet.
3209
02:43:33,600 --> 02:43:39,600
Run, don't walk. Either you are running
3210
02:43:37,040 --> 02:43:43,200
for food or you are running from being
3211
02:43:39,600 --> 02:43:48,439
food. In the era of the digital brain,
3212
02:43:43,200 --> 02:43:48,439
the race has only just begun.
3213
02:45:14,800 --> 02:45:19,600
At the edge of the world, in a country
3214
02:45:16,960 --> 02:45:22,080
with more sheep than people, one of the
3215
02:45:19,600 --> 02:45:25,279
most powerful men in Silicon Valley
3216
02:45:22,080 --> 02:45:29,359
built an escape hatch. Not a vacation
3217
02:45:25,279 --> 02:45:32,160
home, not a tax shelter, a contingency
3218
02:45:29,359 --> 02:45:35,840
plan.
3219
02:45:32,160 --> 02:45:38,000
In 2011, a billionaire quietly secured
3220
02:45:35,840 --> 02:45:40,960
citizenship in New Zealand after
3221
02:45:38,000 --> 02:45:45,200
spending just days in the country. A
3222
02:45:40,960 --> 02:45:47,040
legal backdoor, a geopolitical lifeboat
3223
02:45:45,200 --> 02:45:50,080
deep in the rugged terrain of New
3224
02:45:47,040 --> 02:45:54,000
Zealand's South Island, Peter Teal owns
3225
02:45:50,080 --> 02:45:57,600
a vast private estate, remote, secluded,
3226
02:45:54,000 --> 02:46:00,080
and far from the centers of power.
3227
02:45:57,600 --> 02:46:02,800
While most billionaires buy yachts or
3228
02:46:00,080 --> 02:46:07,200
private islands feel secured something
3229
02:46:02,800 --> 02:46:09,680
more strategic, New Zealand citizenship
3230
02:46:07,200 --> 02:46:12,880
and a vast estate in one of the most
3231
02:46:09,680 --> 02:46:15,200
remote democracies on Earth. The
3232
02:46:12,880 --> 02:46:17,279
purchase price for this geopolitical
3233
02:46:15,200 --> 02:46:20,640
insurance policy.
3234
02:46:17,279 --> 02:46:23,359
In 2011, Theel obtained New Zealand
3235
02:46:20,640 --> 02:46:25,680
citizenship after spending just 12 days
3236
02:46:23,359 --> 02:46:28,720
in the country over the previous 2
3237
02:46:25,680 --> 02:46:32,359
years. a process that normally requires
3238
02:46:28,720 --> 02:46:32,359
years of residency.
3239
02:46:32,479 --> 02:46:37,680
The investment that secured this
3240
02:46:34,319 --> 02:46:40,319
exceptional pathway, approximately $7
3241
02:46:37,680 --> 02:46:42,720
million in local assets and business
3242
02:46:40,319 --> 02:46:47,439
investments.
3243
02:46:42,720 --> 02:46:51,760
The centerpiece, a 477 acre estate near
3244
02:46:47,439 --> 02:46:56,720
Lake Wanaka, purchased for 13.5 million
3245
02:46:51,760 --> 02:46:59,120
New Zealand, about $10 million.
3246
02:46:56,720 --> 02:47:03,680
When New Zealand media exposed the deal
3247
02:46:59,120 --> 02:47:05,359
in 2017, it sparked a national scandal.
3248
02:47:03,680 --> 02:47:06,960
>> Hi Benedict, nice to talk to you again.
3249
02:47:05,359 --> 02:47:08,880
So when we last spoke, you told us that
3250
02:47:06,960 --> 02:47:11,520
Peter Teal was granted citizenship after
3251
02:47:08,880 --> 02:47:14,720
having only visited New Zealand four
3252
02:47:11,520 --> 02:47:16,880
times for an unknown number of days
3253
02:47:14,720 --> 02:47:18,960
because the documents had that
3254
02:47:16,880 --> 02:47:21,200
information redacted. Right.
3255
02:47:18,960 --> 02:47:24,000
>> Politicians called it citizenship for
3256
02:47:21,200 --> 02:47:25,920
sale. Opposition leaders demanded
3257
02:47:24,000 --> 02:47:28,160
investigations,
3258
02:47:25,920 --> 02:47:31,359
but Theel had already achieved his
3259
02:47:28,160 --> 02:47:33,200
objective, a legal escape hatch in the
3260
02:47:31,359 --> 02:47:34,880
world's most politically stable
3261
02:47:33,200 --> 02:47:37,680
democracy,
3262
02:47:34,880 --> 02:47:41,439
a geopolitical insurance policy that
3263
02:47:37,680 --> 02:47:43,760
money can buy.
3264
02:47:41,439 --> 02:47:46,080
Why would a man who helped build the
3265
02:47:43,760 --> 02:47:49,680
digital future prepare for the collapse
3266
02:47:46,080 --> 02:47:52,960
of the physical one? What does he see
3267
02:47:49,680 --> 02:47:56,960
that others don't? Yes, it's the uh 1
3268
02:47:52,960 --> 02:47:59,680
Thessalonians 5:3, the uh the the slogan
3269
02:47:56,960 --> 02:48:02,160
of the Antichrist is peace and safety.
3270
02:47:59,680 --> 02:48:04,160
And so, which is nothing wrong with
3271
02:48:02,160 --> 02:48:06,160
peace and safety, but uh you have to
3272
02:48:04,160 --> 02:48:08,399
sort of imagine that it resonates very
3273
02:48:06,160 --> 02:48:10,240
differently in a world where the stakes
3274
02:48:08,399 --> 02:48:11,600
are so absolute, where the stakes are so
3275
02:48:10,240 --> 02:48:16,000
extreme, where the you know the
3276
02:48:11,600 --> 02:48:18,240
alternative to peace and safety is, you
3277
02:48:16,000 --> 02:48:20,000
know, Armageddon and the destruction of
3278
02:48:18,240 --> 02:48:22,399
all things.
3279
02:48:20,000 --> 02:48:25,920
He is one of the most polarizing figures
3280
02:48:22,399 --> 02:48:28,880
in Silicon Valley. To some, a visionary
3281
02:48:25,920 --> 02:48:31,520
genius who saw the future early. To
3282
02:48:28,880 --> 02:48:33,680
others, the shadow financier of
3283
02:48:31,520 --> 02:48:36,640
movements and candidates who challenged
3284
02:48:33,680 --> 02:48:40,479
liberal democratic norms.
3285
02:48:36,640 --> 02:48:42,960
This is not fear. This is strategy.
3286
02:48:40,479 --> 02:48:46,720
For decades, Peter Theal has made the
3287
02:48:42,960 --> 02:48:49,680
same bet over and over again. Bet
3288
02:48:46,720 --> 02:48:54,319
against consensus. bet against the
3289
02:48:49,680 --> 02:48:56,880
crowd, bet against the system itself.
3290
02:48:54,319 --> 02:48:59,439
To understand why he built a fortress at
3291
02:48:56,880 --> 02:49:02,800
the end of the earth, we have to go back
3292
02:48:59,439 --> 02:49:05,120
to a childhood of constant displacement.
3293
02:49:02,800 --> 02:49:07,520
To a chessboard where consensus meant
3294
02:49:05,120 --> 02:49:10,319
nothing, to a company that tried to
3295
02:49:07,520 --> 02:49:13,880
replace money and another that learned
3296
02:49:10,319 --> 02:49:13,880
to see everything.
3297
02:49:14,080 --> 02:49:19,520
But the estate is more than a luxury
3298
02:49:16,640 --> 02:49:22,800
retreat. It is a fortress designed for
3299
02:49:19,520 --> 02:49:25,439
civilizational uncertainty.
3300
02:49:22,800 --> 02:49:28,000
Off-grid power systems, advanced
3301
02:49:25,439 --> 02:49:30,880
security infrastructure, multiple
3302
02:49:28,000 --> 02:49:33,279
evacuation routes through the mountains.
3303
02:49:30,880 --> 02:49:35,200
Not built for comfort, built for
3304
02:49:33,279 --> 02:49:37,840
continuity.
3305
02:49:35,200 --> 02:49:39,840
While the world debates progress, Peter
3306
02:49:37,840 --> 02:49:41,520
Theel is preparing for a different
3307
02:49:39,840 --> 02:49:44,319
possibility.
3308
02:49:41,520 --> 02:49:47,720
Not how to build the future, how to
3309
02:49:44,319 --> 02:49:47,720
survive it.
3310
02:49:49,040 --> 02:49:55,680
The architect of dissident
3311
02:49:52,640 --> 02:50:00,160
total estimated value of the contingency
3312
02:49:55,680 --> 02:50:03,520
infrastructure 20 to $30 million.
3313
02:50:00,160 --> 02:50:05,840
Not for lifestyle, not for prestige, but
3314
02:50:03,520 --> 02:50:08,080
for the day the system he helped build
3315
02:50:05,840 --> 02:50:10,160
no longer holds.
3316
02:50:08,080 --> 02:50:12,960
He didn't build this because he panics
3317
02:50:10,160 --> 02:50:15,520
easily. He built it because he has
3318
02:50:12,960 --> 02:50:18,080
always believed that the crowd is wrong
3319
02:50:15,520 --> 02:50:21,520
and the future belongs to those willing
3320
02:50:18,080 --> 02:50:24,800
to stand apart from it. Every fortress
3321
02:50:21,520 --> 02:50:27,120
begins as an idea and Peter Theel has
3322
02:50:24,800 --> 02:50:31,000
been building intellectual fortresses
3323
02:50:27,120 --> 02:50:31,000
since he was a child.
3324
02:50:35,040 --> 02:50:40,319
Before he was a billionaire, before he
3325
02:50:37,600 --> 02:50:41,920
funded political outsiders, before he
3326
02:50:40,319 --> 02:50:44,880
built machines that could see
3327
02:50:41,920 --> 02:50:46,800
everything, he was a boy who never
3328
02:50:44,880 --> 02:50:49,600
stayed in one place long enough to
3329
02:50:46,800 --> 02:50:51,520
believe the world made sense.
3330
02:50:49,600 --> 02:50:54,960
So he searched for a world where the
3331
02:50:51,520 --> 02:50:56,800
rules didn't change. He found it on a
3332
02:50:54,960 --> 02:50:59,200
chessboard.
3333
02:50:56,800 --> 02:51:01,200
To understand Peter the you must
3334
02:50:59,200 --> 02:51:03,840
understand what it means to be a
3335
02:51:01,200 --> 02:51:06,640
permanent outsider.
3336
02:51:03,840 --> 02:51:09,040
Born in Frankfurt, West Germany, Peter
3337
02:51:06,640 --> 02:51:12,640
Theel spent part of his early childhood
3338
02:51:09,040 --> 02:51:14,960
in southwest Africa, now Namibia, before
3339
02:51:12,640 --> 02:51:18,399
growing up mainly in the United States
3340
02:51:14,960 --> 02:51:20,640
between Ohio and California.
3341
02:51:18,399 --> 02:51:24,000
Before he was a teenager, he had already
3342
02:51:20,640 --> 02:51:26,240
experienced life on multiple continents,
3343
02:51:24,000 --> 02:51:28,240
never staying long enough to feel fully
3344
02:51:26,240 --> 02:51:31,040
at home.
3345
02:51:28,240 --> 02:51:34,800
He didn't have a hometown. He didn't
3346
02:51:31,040 --> 02:51:37,279
have a tribe. He only had his own mind.
3347
02:51:34,800 --> 02:51:40,640
And in that isolation, he found a
3348
02:51:37,279 --> 02:51:43,640
language that didn't require a passport.
3349
02:51:40,640 --> 02:51:43,640
Chess.
3350
02:51:44,080 --> 02:51:48,399
For a child who changed continents
3351
02:51:46,319 --> 02:51:51,760
before he could even make friends, the
3352
02:51:48,399 --> 02:51:54,720
outside world was unpredictable noise.
3353
02:51:51,760 --> 02:51:56,720
But the board, the board was the only
3354
02:51:54,720 --> 02:52:00,000
place where the rules didn't change
3355
02:51:56,720 --> 02:52:02,800
depending on the country.
3356
02:52:00,000 --> 02:52:05,200
His
3357
02:52:02,800 --> 02:52:07,680
father, an engineer trained in a culture
3358
02:52:05,200 --> 02:52:10,000
of precision and systems thinking,
3359
02:52:07,680 --> 02:52:13,520
passed on a belief that reality could be
3360
02:52:10,000 --> 02:52:16,080
understood and optimized.
3361
02:52:13,520 --> 02:52:19,040
While other children sought to fit in,
3362
02:52:16,080 --> 02:52:21,840
Peter sought the edge. He learned that
3363
02:52:19,040 --> 02:52:23,600
the consensus of the crowd is usually a
3364
02:52:21,840 --> 02:52:26,160
distraction.
3365
02:52:23,600 --> 02:52:28,720
If everyone is running toward the ball,
3366
02:52:26,160 --> 02:52:30,399
you run toward where the ball is going
3367
02:52:28,720 --> 02:52:32,560
to be.
3368
02:52:30,399 --> 02:52:34,399
Chess is the ultimate antidote to
3369
02:52:32,560 --> 02:52:36,399
consensus.
3370
02:52:34,399 --> 02:52:39,040
In a crowd, you can hide behind a
3371
02:52:36,399 --> 02:52:42,240
popular opinion. In chess, you are
3372
02:52:39,040 --> 02:52:44,399
either right or you are dead. There is
3373
02:52:42,240 --> 02:52:47,040
no middle ground. There is no social
3374
02:52:44,399 --> 02:52:49,040
construction of the board.
3375
02:52:47,040 --> 02:52:51,760
He became a serious tournament chess
3376
02:52:49,040 --> 02:52:54,479
player drawn to a world where rules were
3377
02:52:51,760 --> 02:52:58,319
fixed, outcomes were earned, and
3378
02:52:54,479 --> 02:53:02,560
consensus meant nothing.
3379
02:52:58,319 --> 02:53:04,960
mid1980s Stanford University.
3380
02:53:02,560 --> 02:53:07,200
To the world, this was the peak of
3381
02:53:04,960 --> 02:53:09,760
American meritocracy.
3382
02:53:07,200 --> 02:53:11,520
To Theel, it was a factory of
3383
02:53:09,760 --> 02:53:13,520
conformity.
3384
02:53:11,520 --> 02:53:15,920
While his classmates were debating how
3385
02:53:13,520 --> 02:53:18,160
to change the world through activism,
3386
02:53:15,920 --> 02:53:20,800
Theel was wondering why they all sounded
3387
02:53:18,160 --> 02:53:22,880
exactly the same. He saw the
3388
02:53:20,800 --> 02:53:25,040
multiculturalism movement not as
3389
02:53:22,880 --> 02:53:27,200
progress, but as a new form of
3390
02:53:25,040 --> 02:53:29,840
fundamentalism.
3391
02:53:27,200 --> 02:53:32,960
Stanford in the late 1980s was ground
3392
02:53:29,840 --> 02:53:35,680
zero for America's culture wars, battles
3393
02:53:32,960 --> 02:53:38,720
over multiculturalism, speech, and the
3394
02:53:35,680 --> 02:53:41,040
purpose of higher education.
3395
02:53:38,720 --> 02:53:44,399
Field believed the university was
3396
02:53:41,040 --> 02:53:46,160
drifting toward ideological conformity
3397
02:53:44,399 --> 02:53:49,600
that certain views were becoming
3398
02:53:46,160 --> 02:53:53,520
socially, if not formally, off limits.
3399
02:53:49,600 --> 02:53:56,399
Here is investment methodology was born.
3400
02:53:53,520 --> 02:53:59,600
Identify what the crowd considers sacred
3401
02:53:56,399 --> 02:54:02,960
and question it.
3402
02:53:59,600 --> 02:54:05,920
If everyone says identity diversity is
3403
02:54:02,960 --> 02:54:08,880
the most important thing, you argue that
3404
02:54:05,920 --> 02:54:10,960
intellectual diversity is the only thing
3405
02:54:08,880 --> 02:54:13,279
that matters.
3406
02:54:10,960 --> 02:54:16,399
He wasn't looking for friends. He was
3407
02:54:13,279 --> 02:54:19,279
looking to recruit others who like him
3408
02:54:16,399 --> 02:54:22,640
did not fear being hated.
3409
02:54:19,279 --> 02:54:24,880
He founded the Stanford Review. The
3410
02:54:22,640 --> 02:54:28,160
paper quickly became one of the most
3411
02:54:24,880 --> 02:54:31,040
controversial publications on campus,
3412
02:54:28,160 --> 02:54:34,800
attacking what field saw as intellectual
3413
02:54:31,040 --> 02:54:36,960
monoculture and political group think.
3414
02:54:34,800 --> 02:54:39,359
He saw that the smartest people in the
3415
02:54:36,960 --> 02:54:42,560
country were all competing for the same
3416
02:54:39,359 --> 02:54:44,319
narrow prizes, thinking the same narrow
3417
02:54:42,560 --> 02:54:47,680
thoughts.
3418
02:54:44,319 --> 02:54:49,760
He did what every top student does. He
3419
02:54:47,680 --> 02:54:52,240
followed the track.
3420
02:54:49,760 --> 02:54:55,200
After Stanford law, he secured a
3421
02:54:52,240 --> 02:54:57,600
prestigious federal appalate clerkship,
3422
02:54:55,200 --> 02:55:00,000
the kind of credential that opens every
3423
02:54:57,600 --> 02:55:02,240
elite door in America.
3424
02:55:00,000 --> 02:55:04,720
After his clerkship, he joined Sullivan
3425
02:55:02,240 --> 02:55:08,000
and Cromwell in New York, one of the
3426
02:55:04,720 --> 02:55:10,640
most elite law firms in the world. On
3427
02:55:08,000 --> 02:55:15,439
paper, he had reached the summit. Wall
3428
02:55:10,640 --> 02:55:17,680
Street was his great negative epiphany.
3429
02:55:15,439 --> 02:55:19,760
But from his perspective, the brightest
3430
02:55:17,680 --> 02:55:21,840
graduates in America were locked in
3431
02:55:19,760 --> 02:55:24,880
brutal competition for careers they
3432
02:55:21,840 --> 02:55:27,279
didn't even seem to want.
3433
02:55:24,880 --> 02:55:29,920
It looked like Renee Gerard's theory
3434
02:55:27,279 --> 02:55:32,319
made flesh, a system where everyone
3435
02:55:29,920 --> 02:55:35,359
desired the same prize simply because
3436
02:55:32,319 --> 02:55:38,160
everyone else did. Wall Street looked at
3437
02:55:35,359 --> 02:55:41,200
Theo like a laboratory of mimemetic
3438
02:55:38,160 --> 02:55:43,760
rivalry. He realized that if he won that
3439
02:55:41,200 --> 02:55:47,040
race, his prize would be becoming the
3440
02:55:43,760 --> 02:55:50,319
man in the office next door. A copy of a
3441
02:55:47,040 --> 02:55:53,120
copy. The day he lost the opportunity to
3442
02:55:50,319 --> 02:55:56,640
clerk for the US Supreme Court wasn't a
3443
02:55:53,120 --> 02:55:59,920
defeat. It was his liberation.
3444
02:55:56,640 --> 02:56:02,560
He lasted less than a year. But Theo's
3445
02:55:59,920 --> 02:56:05,359
first venture after leaving law was a
3446
02:56:02,560 --> 02:56:07,279
humbling lesson in failure. A lesson
3447
02:56:05,359 --> 02:56:10,240
that would shape everything that came
3448
02:56:07,279 --> 02:56:13,520
after.
3449
02:56:10,240 --> 02:56:16,240
In 1996, he launched Theal Capital
3450
02:56:13,520 --> 02:56:19,279
Management,
3451
02:56:16,240 --> 02:56:22,399
a hedge fund focused on currency trading
3452
02:56:19,279 --> 02:56:25,200
and macroeconomic derivatives.
3453
02:56:22,399 --> 02:56:27,920
The strategy was to make big directional
3454
02:56:25,200 --> 02:56:30,319
bets on interest rates, inflation
3455
02:56:27,920 --> 02:56:34,080
expectations, and foreign exchange
3456
02:56:30,319 --> 02:56:37,520
movements. Initial capital raised $1
3457
02:56:34,080 --> 02:56:39,680
million mostly from Stanford connections
3458
02:56:37,520 --> 02:56:43,640
who believed in the chess prodigy turned
3459
02:56:39,680 --> 02:56:43,640
lawyer turned financia.
3460
02:56:44,399 --> 02:56:49,760
The result was spectacular failure.
3461
02:56:47,520 --> 02:56:53,040
Within the first year, the fund had lost
3462
02:56:49,760 --> 02:56:56,560
significant capital. Industry estimates
3463
02:56:53,040 --> 02:57:00,560
suggest losses between 30 and 40% of the
3464
02:56:56,560 --> 02:57:02,960
initial investment pool. Investors fled.
3465
02:57:00,560 --> 02:57:04,880
Some demanded their remaining money back
3466
02:57:02,960 --> 02:57:07,279
immediately.
3467
02:57:04,880 --> 02:57:09,439
The reputation among finance
3468
02:57:07,279 --> 02:57:11,760
professionals, the people he had walked
3469
02:57:09,439 --> 02:57:14,399
away from at Sullivan and Cromwell, took
3470
02:57:11,760 --> 02:57:17,760
a serious hit.
3471
02:57:14,399 --> 02:57:20,960
He was no longer the Stanford genius. He
3472
02:57:17,760 --> 02:57:23,439
was just another failed trader.
3473
02:57:20,960 --> 02:57:25,920
But this failure taught him the most
3474
02:57:23,439 --> 02:57:28,960
important lesson of his career.
3475
02:57:25,920 --> 02:57:31,439
Competition is for losers.
3476
02:57:28,960 --> 02:57:34,080
Do not compete in crowded markets where
3477
02:57:31,439 --> 02:57:37,840
everyone is making the same trades with
3478
02:57:34,080 --> 02:57:40,240
the same information and the same tools.
3479
02:57:37,840 --> 02:57:43,359
Wall Street was full of extremely smart
3480
02:57:40,240 --> 02:57:45,760
people doing the same macro trades,
3481
02:57:43,359 --> 02:57:48,880
reading the same economic reports,
3482
02:57:45,760 --> 02:57:51,279
betting on the same currency movements.
3483
02:57:48,880 --> 02:57:56,000
It was a zero someum game played by
3484
02:57:51,279 --> 02:57:58,160
thousands of nearly identical players.
3485
02:57:56,000 --> 02:58:01,200
He needed to find a space where the
3486
02:57:58,160 --> 02:58:03,600
rules were still being written. Where
3487
02:58:01,200 --> 02:58:06,960
being first mattered more than being
3488
02:58:03,600 --> 02:58:08,800
best, where a monopoly position was
3489
02:58:06,960 --> 02:58:11,120
still available.
3490
02:58:08,800 --> 02:58:13,520
He needed technology.
3491
02:58:11,120 --> 02:58:17,279
And from the ashes of the capital
3492
02:58:13,520 --> 02:58:19,840
management, a new philosophy was born.
3493
02:58:17,279 --> 02:58:23,120
If you want to create lasting value, you
3494
02:58:19,840 --> 02:58:26,000
have to build a monopoly. This became
3495
02:58:23,120 --> 02:58:29,720
his investing mantra and it would make
3496
02:58:26,000 --> 02:58:29,720
him billions.
3497
02:58:31,279 --> 02:58:36,160
Theo walked away from the firm and went
3498
02:58:33,359 --> 02:58:39,040
back to California not to start a tech
3499
02:58:36,160 --> 02:58:42,800
empire but to try trading then to launch
3500
02:58:39,040 --> 02:58:45,120
a hedge fund. It failed. The system he
3501
02:58:42,800 --> 02:58:48,960
rejected did not welcome him back as a
3502
02:58:45,120 --> 02:58:50,960
prodigy. It treated him like a nobody.
3503
02:58:48,960 --> 02:58:54,800
That failure would become the last
3504
02:58:50,960 --> 02:58:57,200
lesson before his real beginning. But he
3505
02:58:54,800 --> 02:58:59,840
learned something. If you play the
3506
02:58:57,200 --> 02:59:01,920
system game as everyone else, you've
3507
02:58:59,840 --> 02:59:03,840
already lost.
3508
02:59:01,920 --> 02:59:09,560
The chess master was done with the
3509
02:59:03,840 --> 02:59:09,560
board. He was ready to build his own.
3510
02:59:14,479 --> 02:59:18,399
So this is an ATM. What we're going to
3511
02:59:16,399 --> 02:59:20,240
do is transform the traditional banking
3512
02:59:18,399 --> 02:59:23,760
industry.
3513
02:59:20,240 --> 02:59:25,359
>> I do not fit the picture of a banker.
3514
02:59:23,760 --> 02:59:27,439
>> X.com. This is Julie.
3515
02:59:25,359 --> 02:59:30,080
>> Raising $50 million is a matter of
3516
02:59:27,439 --> 02:59:32,240
making a series of phone calls and the
3517
02:59:30,080 --> 02:59:34,160
money is there.
3518
02:59:32,240 --> 02:59:36,720
>> I've sunk the great majority of of my
3519
02:59:34,160 --> 02:59:38,880
net worth into X.com, which is the new
3520
02:59:36,720 --> 02:59:41,520
banking and mutual funds company on the
3521
02:59:38,880 --> 02:59:43,439
internet that I've started. December
3522
02:59:41,520 --> 02:59:46,160
1998,
3523
02:59:43,439 --> 02:59:49,520
Peter Theel co-founds a company called
3524
02:59:46,160 --> 02:59:52,640
Conffinity with Max Levchin, a brilliant
3525
02:59:49,520 --> 02:59:56,240
Ukrainianborn programmer, and Luke Nosk,
3526
02:59:52,640 --> 02:59:59,359
a fellow Stanford Review illuminous.
3527
02:59:56,240 --> 03:00:01,359
Initial funding, $300,000 scraped
3528
02:59:59,359 --> 03:00:03,520
together from friends, family, and
3529
03:00:01,359 --> 03:00:06,720
fellow libertarian true believers from
3530
03:00:03,520 --> 03:00:09,920
the Stamford days. The original product
3531
03:00:06,720 --> 03:00:13,120
idea, digital wallets on Palm Pilot
3532
03:00:09,920 --> 03:00:15,439
handheld devices. The vision was that
3533
03:00:13,120 --> 03:00:19,520
people would beam money to each other
3534
03:00:15,439 --> 03:00:22,240
using infrared ports on the Palm Pilots
3535
03:00:19,520 --> 03:00:23,840
in coffee shops, at restaurants,
3536
03:00:22,240 --> 03:00:28,200
persontoperson,
3537
03:00:23,840 --> 03:00:28,200
bypassing banks entirely.
3538
03:00:28,399 --> 03:00:36,560
Total users after 6 months of operation,
3539
03:00:32,080 --> 03:00:38,800
12 people. literally 12.
3540
03:00:36,560 --> 03:00:41,520
Most of them were employees and their
3541
03:00:38,800 --> 03:00:45,120
friends testing the system. It was a
3542
03:00:41,520 --> 03:00:48,000
complete and utter flop. The technology
3543
03:00:45,120 --> 03:00:52,960
worked, but nobody cared. Nobody wanted
3544
03:00:48,000 --> 03:00:56,319
it. March 2000, Confinity pivots hard
3545
03:00:52,960 --> 03:00:58,720
and launches a new feature, email-based
3546
03:00:56,319 --> 03:01:01,760
money transfers.
3547
03:00:58,720 --> 03:01:04,160
You send money to any email address. The
3548
03:01:01,760 --> 03:01:06,640
recipient gets a notification, creates
3549
03:01:04,160 --> 03:01:09,760
an account, and the money is there.
3550
03:01:06,640 --> 03:01:13,200
Simple, instant, revolutionary. The name
3551
03:01:09,760 --> 03:01:16,080
of this new service, PayPal.
3552
03:01:13,200 --> 03:01:18,640
Within weeks, user growth exploded at a
3553
03:01:16,080 --> 03:01:20,240
rate nobody had ever seen in financial
3554
03:01:18,640 --> 03:01:24,800
services.
3555
03:01:20,240 --> 03:01:30,319
Month one, 10,000 users. Month three,
3556
03:01:24,800 --> 03:01:35,279
100,000 users. Month 6, 1 million users.
3557
03:01:30,319 --> 03:01:37,680
Month 12, 5 million users.
3558
03:01:35,279 --> 03:01:40,000
This was the fastest user adoption rate
3559
03:01:37,680 --> 03:01:42,880
in the entire history of financial
3560
03:01:40,000 --> 03:01:45,359
services. Faster than credit cards,
3561
03:01:42,880 --> 03:01:47,439
faster than checking accounts, faster
3562
03:01:45,359 --> 03:01:49,920
than anything.
3563
03:01:47,439 --> 03:01:53,040
But here is what most people do not know
3564
03:01:49,920 --> 03:01:56,319
about PayPal's growth. Here is the
3565
03:01:53,040 --> 03:01:59,520
secret that the mythology leaves out.
3566
03:01:56,319 --> 03:02:03,840
PayPal's explosive user acquisition was
3567
03:01:59,520 --> 03:02:08,720
not organic. It was not word of mouth.
3568
03:02:03,840 --> 03:02:11,040
It was not viral in the natural sense.
3569
03:02:08,720 --> 03:02:14,960
They literally bought their users with
3570
03:02:11,040 --> 03:02:17,760
cash. The strategy was elegantly simple
3571
03:02:14,960 --> 03:02:20,880
and brutally expensive.
3572
03:02:17,760 --> 03:02:24,080
Sign up for a PayPal account, get $10
3573
03:02:20,880 --> 03:02:27,600
deposited instantly. Refer a friend who
3574
03:02:24,080 --> 03:02:31,760
signs up gets another $10. Your friend
3575
03:02:27,600 --> 03:02:35,200
also gets $10. Cost per acquisition 20
3576
03:02:31,760 --> 03:02:38,720
to $40 per user depending on how many
3577
03:02:35,200 --> 03:02:42,000
referrals each user generated.
3578
03:02:38,720 --> 03:02:44,880
Monthly cash burn rate of peak growth 10
3579
03:02:42,000 --> 03:02:48,479
to 12 million
3580
03:02:44,880 --> 03:02:52,160
just vanishing into user acquisition. By
3581
03:02:48,479 --> 03:02:55,520
late 2000, PayPal was spending 60 to 70
3582
03:02:52,160 --> 03:02:57,760
million annually just to buy users with
3583
03:02:55,520 --> 03:02:59,840
cash incentives.
3584
03:02:57,760 --> 03:03:02,560
They were hemorrhaging money at a
3585
03:02:59,840 --> 03:03:05,040
terrifying rate. Investors were
3586
03:03:02,560 --> 03:03:07,840
panicking. Board members were demanding
3587
03:03:05,040 --> 03:03:10,319
answers.
3588
03:03:07,840 --> 03:03:13,840
How long can you sustain spending $10
3589
03:03:10,319 --> 03:03:16,960
million a month buying users?
3590
03:03:13,840 --> 03:03:19,920
But Theo had done the mathematics. He
3591
03:03:16,960 --> 03:03:22,880
had run the numbers obsessively.
3592
03:03:19,920 --> 03:03:26,640
Each acquired user was worth $100 to
3593
03:03:22,880 --> 03:03:29,520
$200 in lifetime transaction fee revenue
3594
03:03:26,640 --> 03:03:34,000
through the PayPal network. They were
3595
03:03:29,520 --> 03:03:37,279
buying $100 bills for $20 bills. It was
3596
03:03:34,000 --> 03:03:40,479
either genius or insanity, depending on
3597
03:03:37,279 --> 03:03:42,960
whether the math actually worked. The
3598
03:03:40,479 --> 03:03:45,279
believed it would work. He bet
3599
03:03:42,960 --> 03:03:48,399
everything on it. But there was a
3600
03:03:45,279 --> 03:03:51,760
problem. a major problem. Another
3601
03:03:48,399 --> 03:03:55,359
company was doing the exact same thing.
3602
03:03:51,760 --> 03:03:58,800
X.com, a finance company founded by Elon
3603
03:03:55,359 --> 03:04:00,800
Musk with money from his Zip 2 exit and
3604
03:03:58,800 --> 03:04:05,200
a vision for online banking that was
3605
03:04:00,800 --> 03:04:08,800
nearly identical to PayPal's.
3606
03:04:05,200 --> 03:04:11,680
Two companies, same idea, same market,
3607
03:04:08,800 --> 03:04:15,200
both burning massive amounts of cash at
3608
03:04:11,680 --> 03:04:17,840
completely unsustainable rates. Total
3609
03:04:15,200 --> 03:04:20,960
funding raised between both companies
3610
03:04:17,840 --> 03:04:24,240
over $100 million.
3611
03:04:20,960 --> 03:04:25,760
Combined monthly cash burn rate over $20
3612
03:04:24,240 --> 03:04:28,080
million.
3613
03:04:25,760 --> 03:04:33,200
Time until both companies simultaneously
3614
03:04:28,080 --> 03:04:36,000
ran out of money less than 6 months.
3615
03:04:33,200 --> 03:04:39,520
The merger was inevitable.
3616
03:04:36,000 --> 03:04:42,560
X.com and Confinity merged into a single
3617
03:04:39,520 --> 03:04:44,880
entity. The combined company kept the
3618
03:04:42,560 --> 03:04:48,720
PayPal name because users had already
3619
03:04:44,880 --> 03:04:51,200
adopted it. The brand had momentum. Elon
3620
03:04:48,720 --> 03:04:56,600
Musk became chief executive officer of
3621
03:04:51,200 --> 03:04:56,600
the merged company for 5 months.
3622
03:04:57,920 --> 03:05:04,240
October 2000, while Elon Musk was on his
3623
03:05:01,600 --> 03:05:07,040
honeymoon, the board of directors led by
3624
03:05:04,240 --> 03:05:10,160
Peter Theel and other Confinity founders
3625
03:05:07,040 --> 03:05:12,720
held an emergency meeting and voted Musk
3626
03:05:10,160 --> 03:05:15,520
out as CEO.
3627
03:05:12,720 --> 03:05:18,560
The official reasons cited strategic
3628
03:05:15,520 --> 03:05:21,840
disagreements over technology platform.
3629
03:05:18,560 --> 03:05:24,160
Musk wanted to use Microsoft software.
3630
03:05:21,840 --> 03:05:28,080
The Confinity engineers believed in
3631
03:05:24,160 --> 03:05:31,760
Unixbased systems. The actual reason
3632
03:05:28,080 --> 03:05:35,600
Theel wanted control, full control. This
3633
03:05:31,760 --> 03:05:37,840
was his company now.
3634
03:05:35,600 --> 03:05:41,120
Peter Theel became chief executive
3635
03:05:37,840 --> 03:05:43,680
officer of PayPal. Elon Musk remained a
3636
03:05:41,120 --> 03:05:47,439
major shareholder, but his operational
3637
03:05:43,680 --> 03:05:50,240
control was finished.
3638
03:05:47,439 --> 03:05:52,720
The two men, both future billionaires,
3639
03:05:50,240 --> 03:05:56,960
both future power brokers, had their
3640
03:05:52,720 --> 03:05:59,680
first battle. feel one. At its core,
3641
03:05:56,960 --> 03:06:02,399
PayPal ran on a simple idea that turned
3642
03:05:59,680 --> 03:06:04,880
into a powerful engine.
3643
03:06:02,399 --> 03:06:08,960
Every time money moved, PayPal took a
3644
03:06:04,880 --> 03:06:10,479
small cut, 2.9% plus 30 cents per
3645
03:06:08,960 --> 03:06:12,560
transaction.
3646
03:06:10,479 --> 03:06:16,560
If that money crossed borders, the fee
3647
03:06:12,560 --> 03:06:18,720
climbed to between 2 1/2 and 4%.
3648
03:06:16,560 --> 03:06:20,720
Then there was the float, the cash
3649
03:06:18,720 --> 03:06:23,200
sitting in PayPal's accounts between
3650
03:06:20,720 --> 03:06:26,560
payments, quietly earning interest for
3651
03:06:23,200 --> 03:06:28,800
the company. Tiny slices repeated
3652
03:06:26,560 --> 03:06:31,920
millions of times.
3653
03:06:28,800 --> 03:06:35,680
By 2001, the numbers told the story of a
3654
03:06:31,920 --> 03:06:38,640
system coming to life. Every single day,
3655
03:06:35,680 --> 03:06:41,680
5 to8 million flowed through PayPal's
3656
03:06:38,640 --> 03:06:46,560
network. Each month, that translated
3657
03:06:41,680 --> 03:06:49,600
into 10 to$15 million in revenue.
3658
03:06:46,560 --> 03:06:52,080
But growth at this speed came at a cost.
3659
03:06:49,600 --> 03:06:54,960
Running the system, fighting fraud,
3660
03:06:52,080 --> 03:07:00,080
scaling infrastructure, acquiring users,
3661
03:06:54,960 --> 03:07:02,399
was burning 20 to30 million every month.
3662
03:07:00,080 --> 03:07:04,800
The machine worked, it just wasn't
3663
03:07:02,399 --> 03:07:06,800
profitable yet.
3664
03:07:04,800 --> 03:07:09,359
Late 2000,
3665
03:07:06,800 --> 03:07:13,040
PayPal's data scientists discovered
3666
03:07:09,359 --> 03:07:15,439
something crucial. 70% of all PayPal
3667
03:07:13,040 --> 03:07:17,200
transactions were happening on eBay
3668
03:07:15,439 --> 03:07:19,359
auctions.
3669
03:07:17,200 --> 03:07:22,000
People buying and selling random items
3670
03:07:19,359 --> 03:07:25,359
on the internet's largest marketplace
3671
03:07:22,000 --> 03:07:27,680
were using PayPal to move money. The
3672
03:07:25,359 --> 03:07:31,040
strategic insight became immediately
3673
03:07:27,680 --> 03:07:35,279
clear. Make PayPal the only payment
3674
03:07:31,040 --> 03:07:39,200
method that eBay users trust completely.
3675
03:07:35,279 --> 03:07:41,840
Own that market, become indispensable.
3676
03:07:39,200 --> 03:07:44,240
The execution buyer protection
3677
03:07:41,840 --> 03:07:47,040
guarantees that eBay's own payment
3678
03:07:44,240 --> 03:07:49,680
system did not offer
3679
03:07:47,040 --> 03:07:53,479
instant payment transfers with no 7-day
3680
03:07:49,680 --> 03:07:53,479
check clearing period.
3681
03:07:53,920 --> 03:07:59,120
Fraud detection algorithms that were
3682
03:07:56,080 --> 03:08:02,000
better than credit card companies. Email
3683
03:07:59,120 --> 03:08:06,399
notifications for every transaction.
3684
03:08:02,000 --> 03:08:09,760
Simple, clean user interface.
3685
03:08:06,399 --> 03:08:13,520
By mid 2001, the strategy was working
3686
03:08:09,760 --> 03:08:16,240
beyond all projections. 50% of all eBay
3687
03:08:13,520 --> 03:08:19,920
auctions accepted PayPal as a payment
3688
03:08:16,240 --> 03:08:22,399
method. PayPal was processing $50
3689
03:08:19,920 --> 03:08:25,359
million daily in eBay related
3690
03:08:22,399 --> 03:08:30,640
transactions alone. And then eBay
3691
03:08:25,359 --> 03:08:32,640
noticed and eBay was not happy.
3692
03:08:30,640 --> 03:08:34,960
eBay launched their own competing
3693
03:08:32,640 --> 03:08:37,760
service called Billpoint and attempted
3694
03:08:34,960 --> 03:08:39,920
to kill PayPal through the marketplace.
3695
03:08:37,760 --> 03:08:42,960
They promoted Billoint in search
3696
03:08:39,920 --> 03:08:45,680
rankings. They penalized sellers who
3697
03:08:42,960 --> 03:08:48,800
only accepted PayPal. They made it
3698
03:08:45,680 --> 03:08:50,560
harder to display the PayPal logo. It
3699
03:08:48,800 --> 03:08:53,680
was war.
3700
03:08:50,560 --> 03:08:56,240
PayPal's response was total war.
3701
03:08:53,680 --> 03:08:58,800
Temporarily lower transaction fees to
3702
03:08:56,240 --> 03:09:01,040
undercut billpoint.
3703
03:08:58,800 --> 03:09:04,160
Guarantee faster money transfers than
3704
03:09:01,040 --> 03:09:07,840
eBay could offer. Invest heavily in
3705
03:09:04,160 --> 03:09:09,760
superior $30 million deployed in 2001
3706
03:09:07,840 --> 03:09:13,520
fraud protection.
3707
03:09:09,760 --> 03:09:17,200
Massive marketing spending alone.
3708
03:09:13,520 --> 03:09:21,520
By early 2002, the war was over. PayPal
3709
03:09:17,200 --> 03:09:25,600
controlled 65% of eBay's payment market.
3710
03:09:21,520 --> 03:09:27,920
Bill point at barely 10%.
3711
03:09:25,600 --> 03:09:30,240
eBay executives looked at the numbers
3712
03:09:27,920 --> 03:09:35,520
and reached the conclusion, if you
3713
03:09:30,240 --> 03:09:39,680
cannot beat them, buy them. July 2002,
3714
03:09:35,520 --> 03:09:41,760
eBay acquires PayPal for $1.5 billion in
3715
03:09:39,680 --> 03:09:45,439
eBay stock.
3716
03:09:41,760 --> 03:09:47,920
Peter Theal owned approximately $3.7% of
3717
03:09:45,439 --> 03:09:51,520
PayPal at the time of the acquisition.
3718
03:09:47,920 --> 03:09:55,040
His equity stake was worth $55 million
3719
03:09:51,520 --> 03:09:57,520
in eBay stock. After taxes, he walked
3720
03:09:55,040 --> 03:10:01,439
away with approximately $40 million in
3721
03:09:57,520 --> 03:10:05,040
liquid wealth. At age 34, he had won his
3722
03:10:01,439 --> 03:10:07,120
first billion dollar game.
3723
03:10:05,040 --> 03:10:10,399
But the money was not the most valuable
3724
03:10:07,120 --> 03:10:14,399
thing he extracted from PayPal. The real
3725
03:10:10,399 --> 03:10:16,800
value was the network, the PayPal mafia,
3726
03:10:14,399 --> 03:10:20,800
the name they gave themselves. And it
3727
03:10:16,800 --> 03:10:23,600
was not ironic. It was descriptive. The
3728
03:10:20,800 --> 03:10:25,680
core team that Theel assembled at PayPal
3729
03:10:23,600 --> 03:10:28,960
would go on to create some of the most
3730
03:10:25,680 --> 03:10:34,880
valuable companies in human history.
3731
03:10:28,960 --> 03:10:39,760
Elon Musk Tesla Market Cap $650 billion.
3732
03:10:34,880 --> 03:10:42,800
SpaceX estimated value $150 billion.
3733
03:10:39,760 --> 03:10:45,760
Reed Hoffman LinkedIn sold to Microsoft
3734
03:10:42,800 --> 03:10:49,920
for $26 billion.
3735
03:10:45,760 --> 03:10:53,279
Steve Chen, Chad Hurley, Jawed Kareem.
3736
03:10:49,920 --> 03:10:59,560
YouTube sold to Google for $1.65
3737
03:10:53,279 --> 03:10:59,560
billion, now worth over 100 billion.
3738
03:10:59,760 --> 03:11:06,560
Jeremy Stoppleman and Russell Simmons,
3739
03:11:02,479 --> 03:11:09,520
Yelp, peaked at $3 billion market cap.
3740
03:11:06,560 --> 03:11:12,640
David Saxs, Yammer, sold to Microsoft
3741
03:11:09,520 --> 03:11:15,600
for $1.2 billion.
3742
03:11:12,640 --> 03:11:19,840
later founded Craft Ventures. Max
3743
03:11:15,600 --> 03:11:24,960
Levchin, a firm $12 billion company.
3744
03:11:19,840 --> 03:11:27,760
Also co-founded Yelp. Keith Rabo, COO of
3745
03:11:24,960 --> 03:11:32,439
Square, partner at Founders Fund,
3746
03:11:27,760 --> 03:11:32,439
investor in dozens of unicorns.
3747
03:11:32,560 --> 03:11:38,640
Roloff Bofer, partner at Sequoia
3748
03:11:35,600 --> 03:11:43,840
Capital, led investments in Instagram,
3749
03:11:38,640 --> 03:11:46,880
YouTube, Tumblr, MongoDB, Eventbrite.
3750
03:11:43,840 --> 03:11:48,800
Total value created by the PayPal mafia
3751
03:11:46,880 --> 03:11:52,319
across all their companies,
3752
03:11:48,800 --> 03:11:54,720
conservatively estimated at over $200
3753
03:11:52,319 --> 03:11:57,040
billion in combined market
3754
03:11:54,720 --> 03:11:59,200
capitalization.
3755
03:11:57,040 --> 03:12:01,120
Field's ownership stakes across this
3756
03:11:59,200 --> 03:12:04,240
extended network through direct
3757
03:12:01,120 --> 03:12:07,520
investments and fund positions estimated
3758
03:12:04,240 --> 03:12:09,439
at 2 to4 billion.
3759
03:12:07,520 --> 03:12:12,640
This was not just a company that got
3760
03:12:09,439 --> 03:12:15,439
acquired. This was the creation of the
3761
03:12:12,640 --> 03:12:18,840
most powerful business cartel in Silicon
3762
03:12:15,439 --> 03:12:18,840
Valley history.
3763
03:12:19,120 --> 03:12:24,640
But what made PayPal different was not
3764
03:12:21,600 --> 03:12:26,960
the technology. Not really. The
3765
03:12:24,640 --> 03:12:28,640
technology was impressive but not
3766
03:12:26,960 --> 03:12:30,720
miraculous.
3767
03:12:28,640 --> 03:12:33,520
What made PayPal different was the
3768
03:12:30,720 --> 03:12:35,359
culture, the religion of extreme
3769
03:12:33,520 --> 03:12:38,319
meritocracy.
3770
03:12:35,359 --> 03:12:40,319
Theo's hiring criteria were brutally
3771
03:12:38,319 --> 03:12:44,080
specific.
3772
03:12:40,319 --> 03:12:47,520
One raw intelligence, high test scores,
3773
03:12:44,080 --> 03:12:49,439
ability to solve complex puzzles, proof
3774
03:12:47,520 --> 03:12:52,880
you could think better than everyone
3775
03:12:49,439 --> 03:12:55,920
else. Two, intensity.
3776
03:12:52,880 --> 03:12:57,840
Are you willing to work 100hour weeks?
3777
03:12:55,920 --> 03:13:00,640
Are you willing to sacrifice everything
3778
03:12:57,840 --> 03:13:04,319
else in your life for the mission?
3779
03:13:00,640 --> 03:13:07,120
Three, missionary zeal. Do you actually
3780
03:13:04,319 --> 03:13:09,840
believe we are changing the world or are
3781
03:13:07,120 --> 03:13:13,120
you here for a paycheck?
3782
03:13:09,840 --> 03:13:15,359
Four, loyalty to the tribe. Will you
3783
03:13:13,120 --> 03:13:18,640
protect the other members? Will you put
3784
03:13:15,359 --> 03:13:22,080
the group above yourself?
3785
03:13:18,640 --> 03:13:27,600
Average employee age at PayPal 25 years
3786
03:13:22,080 --> 03:13:29,920
old. Average work week 80 to 100 hours.
3787
03:13:27,600 --> 03:13:32,399
Office culture libertarian,
3788
03:13:29,920 --> 03:13:34,239
anti-regulation, contrarian,
3789
03:13:32,399 --> 03:13:36,319
anti-establishment.
3790
03:13:34,239 --> 03:13:38,880
They called themselves the mafia
3791
03:13:36,319 --> 03:13:42,439
specifically because loyalty mattered
3792
03:13:38,880 --> 03:13:42,439
more than credentials,
3793
03:13:43,600 --> 03:13:49,120
more than degrees, more than previous
3794
03:13:45,840 --> 03:13:52,000
experience. Theel's operating principle
3795
03:13:49,120 --> 03:13:54,319
stated explicitly and repeatedly,
3796
03:13:52,000 --> 03:13:56,560
talented people do not want to work with
3797
03:13:54,319 --> 03:14:00,160
people who are less talented than they
3798
03:13:56,560 --> 03:14:02,160
are. So every new hire must be more
3799
03:14:00,160 --> 03:14:05,520
talented than the average current
3800
03:14:02,160 --> 03:14:08,319
employee. Otherwise, we are diluting the
3801
03:14:05,520 --> 03:14:11,680
talent pool. This created a
3802
03:14:08,319 --> 03:14:14,720
self-reinforcing escalation, an arms
3803
03:14:11,680 --> 03:14:18,000
race of hiring. Every new person raised
3804
03:14:14,720 --> 03:14:21,520
the bar. The standards became higher and
3805
03:14:18,000 --> 03:14:24,319
higher. Only the absolute best could get
3806
03:14:21,520 --> 03:14:27,359
in. And once you were in, you were
3807
03:14:24,319 --> 03:14:29,840
family. But here is what most people
3808
03:14:27,359 --> 03:14:31,920
forget about PayPal. Here is the
3809
03:14:29,840 --> 03:14:34,720
original vision that got erased from the
3810
03:14:31,920 --> 03:14:37,840
mythology. PayPal was supposed to
3811
03:14:34,720 --> 03:14:40,239
destroy the Federal Reserve. It was
3812
03:14:37,840 --> 03:14:43,520
supposed to undermine state control of
3813
03:14:40,239 --> 03:14:45,359
currency. That was the actual mission.
3814
03:14:43,520 --> 03:14:50,080
That was why Peter Theel, the
3815
03:14:45,359 --> 03:14:52,640
libertarian ideologue, cared so much.
3816
03:14:50,080 --> 03:14:55,520
The original vision laid out in Theo's
3817
03:14:52,640 --> 03:14:58,960
founding documents create a new digital
3818
03:14:55,520 --> 03:15:01,680
currency outside government control.
3819
03:14:58,960 --> 03:15:04,720
Enable true peer-to-peer transactions
3820
03:15:01,680 --> 03:15:07,040
globally without state intermediaries.
3821
03:15:04,720 --> 03:15:10,000
Undermine the state monopoly on money
3822
03:15:07,040 --> 03:15:12,479
creation and management.
3823
03:15:10,000 --> 03:15:14,800
build the financial infrastructure for a
3824
03:15:12,479 --> 03:15:17,200
stateless society.
3825
03:15:14,800 --> 03:15:20,160
What actually happened? To become
3826
03:15:17,200 --> 03:15:22,720
mainstream, to actually scale, PayPal
3827
03:15:20,160 --> 03:15:25,040
had to compromise every single founding
3828
03:15:22,720 --> 03:15:27,920
principle. They had to integrate with
3829
03:15:25,040 --> 03:15:30,880
the traditional banking system. The
3830
03:15:27,920 --> 03:15:33,200
enemy, they had to comply with know your
3831
03:15:30,880 --> 03:15:34,720
customer and anti-moneyaundering
3832
03:15:33,200 --> 03:15:36,800
regulations,
3833
03:15:34,720 --> 03:15:38,720
government control.
3834
03:15:36,800 --> 03:15:41,439
They had to partner with credit card
3835
03:15:38,720 --> 03:15:44,160
companies, the old system they wanted to
3836
03:15:41,439 --> 03:15:47,760
destroy. They had to get licensed in
3837
03:15:44,160 --> 03:15:49,600
every single state. Regulatory capture.
3838
03:15:47,760 --> 03:15:52,479
They had to report suspicious
3839
03:15:49,600 --> 03:15:56,000
transactions to federal authorities.
3840
03:15:52,479 --> 03:15:59,840
Surveillance. By 2002, PayPal was
3841
03:15:56,000 --> 03:16:02,560
regulated exactly like a bank. Partnered
3842
03:15:59,840 --> 03:16:05,359
with banks, dependent on banks for all
3843
03:16:02,560 --> 03:16:07,600
core functionalities. The libertarian
3844
03:16:05,359 --> 03:16:09,680
revolution had become just another
3845
03:16:07,600 --> 03:16:12,000
fintech company playing by the
3846
03:16:09,680 --> 03:16:14,319
government's rules.
3847
03:16:12,000 --> 03:16:16,399
The learned the most important lesson of
3848
03:16:14,319 --> 03:16:19,279
his career from PayPal's failure to
3849
03:16:16,399 --> 03:16:21,840
achieve its revolutionary mission. You
3850
03:16:19,279 --> 03:16:24,640
cannot disrupt the system from inside
3851
03:16:21,840 --> 03:16:27,040
the system. If you want to change the
3852
03:16:24,640 --> 03:16:29,920
rules, you cannot ask permission from
3853
03:16:27,040 --> 03:16:32,640
the people who wrote them. This lesson
3854
03:16:29,920 --> 03:16:36,760
would shape everything he did next.
3855
03:16:32,640 --> 03:16:36,760
Palanteer, Facebook,
3856
03:16:36,800 --> 03:16:43,120
his political investments, everything.
3857
03:16:40,960 --> 03:16:46,319
The PayPal acquisition was not an
3858
03:16:43,120 --> 03:16:48,960
ending. It was a beginning, the start of
3859
03:16:46,319 --> 03:16:52,000
something much larger. The pattern that
3860
03:16:48,960 --> 03:16:54,399
emerged over the next 20 years. PayPal
3861
03:16:52,000 --> 03:16:56,560
veterans leave and start new companies
3862
03:16:54,399 --> 03:16:59,760
in different sectors.
3863
03:16:56,560 --> 03:17:02,640
Theel invests early as angel investor or
3864
03:16:59,760 --> 03:17:04,479
through founders fund. PayPal mafia
3865
03:17:02,640 --> 03:17:07,359
members join each other's boards of
3866
03:17:04,479 --> 03:17:10,319
directors. Cross investment between all
3867
03:17:07,359 --> 03:17:12,880
their venture funds creates alignment.
3868
03:17:10,319 --> 03:17:15,200
Preferential access to deal flow because
3869
03:17:12,880 --> 03:17:17,120
of network relationships.
3870
03:17:15,200 --> 03:17:19,920
Shared intelligence about markets,
3871
03:17:17,120 --> 03:17:21,840
technology, and opportunities.
3872
03:17:19,920 --> 03:17:25,359
Real examples of how the network
3873
03:17:21,840 --> 03:17:28,960
compounds. Reed Hoffman introduces Theel
3874
03:17:25,359 --> 03:17:32,960
to Mark Zuckerberg in 2004.
3875
03:17:28,960 --> 03:17:36,640
Theel invests $500,000 in Facebook,
3876
03:17:32,960 --> 03:17:39,920
eventually makes over $1 billion.
3877
03:17:36,640 --> 03:17:42,080
Roloff Botha joins Sequoia Capital and
3878
03:17:39,920 --> 03:17:44,560
invests in multiple Theelbacked
3879
03:17:42,080 --> 03:17:46,080
companies, creating reciprocal deal
3880
03:17:44,560 --> 03:17:48,720
flows.
3881
03:17:46,080 --> 03:17:51,680
David Saxs hosts high dollar fundraisers
3882
03:17:48,720 --> 03:17:55,960
for Theo's political candidates, mixing
3883
03:17:51,680 --> 03:17:55,960
business and politics seamlessly.
3884
03:17:56,000 --> 03:18:02,160
Max Levchin provides seed capital for
3885
03:17:58,720 --> 03:18:04,160
Palanteer and serves as advisor lending
3886
03:18:02,160 --> 03:18:06,399
credibility.
3887
03:18:04,160 --> 03:18:10,399
This network effect multiplier is
3888
03:18:06,399 --> 03:18:14,000
precisely how Theel turned $55 million
3889
03:18:10,399 --> 03:18:16,000
from PayPal into over $5 billion in net
3890
03:18:14,000 --> 03:18:19,279
worth today.
3891
03:18:16,000 --> 03:18:21,840
The PayPal mafia is not a cute nickname.
3892
03:18:19,279 --> 03:18:24,319
It is not a metaphor. It is the most
3893
03:18:21,840 --> 03:18:26,880
successful organized business cartel in
3894
03:18:24,319 --> 03:18:29,439
Silicon Valley history. A
3895
03:18:26,880 --> 03:18:31,760
self-reinforcing network of wealth,
3896
03:18:29,439 --> 03:18:34,080
power, and influence that has shaped the
3897
03:18:31,760 --> 03:18:37,200
entire technology industry for two
3898
03:18:34,080 --> 03:18:42,279
decades. And Peter Theel sits at the
3899
03:18:37,200 --> 03:18:42,279
center of it all. The Godfather.
3900
03:18:47,600 --> 03:18:52,800
After PayPal, Peter Theel was a man with
3901
03:18:50,560 --> 03:18:56,000
a billion dollars and a dangerous
3902
03:18:52,800 --> 03:18:57,840
secret. While other investors were
3903
03:18:56,000 --> 03:19:00,560
looking at spreadsheets and profit
3904
03:18:57,840 --> 03:19:02,800
margins, Theel was looking at the human
3905
03:19:00,560 --> 03:19:04,880
soul through the eyes of his mentor,
3906
03:19:02,800 --> 03:19:08,160
Renee Gerard.
3907
03:19:04,880 --> 03:19:11,520
Gerard taught him a terrifying truth.
3908
03:19:08,160 --> 03:19:14,720
Human beings don't know what they want.
3909
03:19:11,520 --> 03:19:17,359
We are mimemetic creatures. We don't
3910
03:19:14,720 --> 03:19:19,920
desire things for themselves. We desire
3911
03:19:17,359 --> 03:19:22,399
them because other people desire them.
3912
03:19:19,920 --> 03:19:25,359
We are copy machines disguised as
3913
03:19:22,399 --> 03:19:28,000
individuals.
3914
03:19:25,359 --> 03:19:30,720
August 2004.
3915
03:19:28,000 --> 03:19:34,080
Facebook has been online for exactly 6
3916
03:19:30,720 --> 03:19:36,479
months. It started as a Harvard dorm
3917
03:19:34,080 --> 03:19:39,439
project and has now expanded to several
3918
03:19:36,479 --> 03:19:42,720
college campuses.
3919
03:19:39,439 --> 03:19:46,560
The metrics that Zuckerberg shows Theel
3920
03:19:42,720 --> 03:19:50,000
total registered users 200,000
3921
03:19:46,560 --> 03:19:53,600
almost entirely college students
3922
03:19:50,000 --> 03:19:55,120
daily active user rate 70 to 80%
3923
03:19:53,600 --> 03:19:59,920
engagement
3924
03:19:55,120 --> 03:20:02,800
unprecedented in web services revenue $0
3925
03:19:59,920 --> 03:20:06,960
no business model yet valuation
3926
03:20:02,800 --> 03:20:08,720
Zuckerberg is asking for $5 million
3927
03:20:06,960 --> 03:20:11,279
every single professional venture
3928
03:20:08,720 --> 03:20:14,080
capitalist in Silicon Valley has passed
3929
03:20:11,279 --> 03:20:17,200
on Facebook. Every major firm has looked
3930
03:20:14,080 --> 03:20:20,560
into it and said no. The reasons they
3931
03:20:17,200 --> 03:20:24,239
gave it is just a college directory.
3932
03:20:20,560 --> 03:20:26,560
Limited market. Frenster has already 5
3933
03:20:24,239 --> 03:20:29,520
million users and is the leader in
3934
03:20:26,560 --> 03:20:32,640
social networking. MySpace is dominant
3935
03:20:29,520 --> 03:20:35,040
with 8 million users and growing fast.
3936
03:20:32,640 --> 03:20:38,479
There is no obvious business model or
3937
03:20:35,040 --> 03:20:41,760
revenue stream. Mark Zuckerberg is too
3938
03:20:38,479 --> 03:20:44,319
young, too inexperienced, too risky as a
3939
03:20:41,760 --> 03:20:46,640
founder.
3940
03:20:44,319 --> 03:20:49,120
Peter Theel saw something completely
3941
03:20:46,640 --> 03:20:51,279
different, something that had nothing to
3942
03:20:49,120 --> 03:20:53,760
do with technology.
3943
03:20:51,279 --> 03:20:56,720
Theel had spent years studying Renee
3944
03:20:53,760 --> 03:20:58,800
Gerard's mimemetic theory. the
3945
03:20:56,720 --> 03:21:02,080
philosophical framework that would shape
3946
03:20:58,800 --> 03:21:05,200
his entire investment approach. The core
3947
03:21:02,080 --> 03:21:08,319
idea, humans do not have original
3948
03:21:05,200 --> 03:21:11,359
desires. We desire what other people
3949
03:21:08,319 --> 03:21:14,800
desire. We learn what to want by
3950
03:21:11,359 --> 03:21:19,359
watching other people want. Desire is
3951
03:21:14,800 --> 03:21:21,200
imitative. Desire is social. Desire is
3952
03:21:19,359 --> 03:21:23,600
mimemetic.
3953
03:21:21,200 --> 03:21:26,000
When Theo looked at Facebook, he did not
3954
03:21:23,600 --> 03:21:28,479
see a technology platform for connecting
3955
03:21:26,000 --> 03:21:31,279
friends. He saw something far more
3956
03:21:28,479 --> 03:21:34,399
powerful. He saw the perfect mimemetic
3957
03:21:31,279 --> 03:21:37,279
desire machine. The insight that made
3958
03:21:34,399 --> 03:21:40,160
Theel invest. Social networks do not
3959
03:21:37,279 --> 03:21:42,640
create value by connecting people. That
3960
03:21:40,160 --> 03:21:45,520
is not where the money is. The money is
3961
03:21:42,640 --> 03:21:47,680
in comparison. The money is in making
3962
03:21:45,520 --> 03:21:49,439
people compare themselves to each other
3963
03:21:47,680 --> 03:21:52,239
constantly.
3964
03:21:49,439 --> 03:21:54,960
You see your friend's vacation photos,
3965
03:21:52,239 --> 03:21:57,279
you want a better vacation. You see
3966
03:21:54,960 --> 03:21:59,920
someone's job promotion announcement,
3967
03:21:57,279 --> 03:22:02,560
you want higher status. You see
3968
03:21:59,920 --> 03:22:05,200
someone's relationship photos, you want
3969
03:22:02,560 --> 03:22:07,040
romance.
3970
03:22:05,200 --> 03:22:10,319
You see someone getting likes and
3971
03:22:07,040 --> 03:22:13,279
comments, you want validation.
3972
03:22:10,319 --> 03:22:16,560
You see someone's perfect life, you feel
3973
03:22:13,279 --> 03:22:19,359
your own life is inadequate.
3974
03:22:16,560 --> 03:22:22,880
Facebook was not selling connections.
3975
03:22:19,359 --> 03:22:25,279
Facebook was selling envy. And envy,
3976
03:22:22,880 --> 03:22:27,760
Theel understood from Gerard, is the
3977
03:22:25,279 --> 03:22:30,800
most powerful economic force in human
3978
03:22:27,760 --> 03:22:34,560
history. The desire for what others
3979
03:22:30,800 --> 03:22:37,840
have. They need to keep up. The fear of
3980
03:22:34,560 --> 03:22:41,040
being left behind. Infinite envy creates
3981
03:22:37,840 --> 03:22:44,080
infinite demand. Infinite demand creates
3982
03:22:41,040 --> 03:22:46,560
infinite value.
3983
03:22:44,080 --> 03:22:50,479
September 2004,
3984
03:22:46,560 --> 03:22:52,399
Peter Theal wires $500,000 to Facebook
3985
03:22:50,479 --> 03:22:56,399
incororated.
3986
03:22:52,399 --> 03:22:59,520
The deal terms, 10.2% equity ownership
3987
03:22:56,399 --> 03:23:01,359
in the company, a board seat giving him
3988
03:22:59,520 --> 03:23:02,960
governance rights and inside
3989
03:23:01,359 --> 03:23:05,840
information,
3990
03:23:02,960 --> 03:23:09,200
right of first refusal on all future
3991
03:23:05,840 --> 03:23:12,000
funding rounds, post money valuation of
3992
03:23:09,200 --> 03:23:14,160
exactly $5 million.
3993
03:23:12,000 --> 03:23:17,359
Mark Zuckerberg's reaction after the
3994
03:23:14,160 --> 03:23:20,319
deal closed. This guy actually gets it.
3995
03:23:17,359 --> 03:23:23,359
He understands what we are building.
3996
03:23:20,319 --> 03:23:25,359
Silicon Valley's reaction. Peter Theal
3997
03:23:23,359 --> 03:23:28,399
just threw away half a million dollars
3998
03:23:25,359 --> 03:23:31,040
on a college kid's website. This will be
3999
03:23:28,399 --> 03:23:33,279
his biggest failure.
4000
03:23:31,040 --> 03:23:35,520
What happened next rewrote the history
4001
03:23:33,279 --> 03:23:40,880
of venture capital.
4002
03:23:35,520 --> 03:23:44,640
2004 end of year. 200,000 users grew to
4003
03:23:40,880 --> 03:23:47,200
1 million users. Five times growth in 4
4004
03:23:44,640 --> 03:23:50,800
months. 2005,
4005
03:23:47,200 --> 03:23:55,840
1 million users becomes 5.5 million
4006
03:23:50,800 --> 03:24:01,200
users. 2006, 5.5 million users becomes
4007
03:23:55,840 --> 03:24:06,000
12 million users. 2007, 12 million users
4008
03:24:01,200 --> 03:24:08,880
exploded to 50 million users. 2008 50
4009
03:24:06,000 --> 03:24:10,640
million users doubles to 100 million
4010
03:24:08,880 --> 03:24:12,239
users.
4011
03:24:10,640 --> 03:24:15,840
2009
4012
03:24:12,239 --> 03:24:19,200
100 million users becomes 350 million
4013
03:24:15,840 --> 03:24:22,319
users. Growth rate the user base was
4014
03:24:19,200 --> 03:24:24,640
doubling every 6 to9 months for five
4015
03:24:22,319 --> 03:24:27,279
consecutive years.
4016
03:24:24,640 --> 03:24:29,920
This growth curve had never been seen
4017
03:24:27,279 --> 03:24:33,439
before in business history. Not even
4018
03:24:29,920 --> 03:24:36,000
close. As Facebook grew, its valuation
4019
03:24:33,439 --> 03:24:38,239
grew and Peter Theel's stake grew with
4020
03:24:36,000 --> 03:24:40,399
it.
4021
03:24:38,239 --> 03:24:44,160
May 2005,
4022
03:24:40,399 --> 03:24:47,040
Axel Partners invest $12.7 million at
4023
03:24:44,160 --> 03:24:50,800
$100 million valuation.
4024
03:24:47,040 --> 03:24:54,319
Field's 10.2% stake is now worth $10.2
4025
03:24:50,800 --> 03:24:57,040
million. He has achieved 20 times return
4026
03:24:54,319 --> 03:25:00,560
in 9 months.
4027
03:24:57,040 --> 03:25:04,800
April 2006, Greylock Partners and
4028
03:25:00,560 --> 03:25:07,520
Meritech Capital invest $27.5 million at
4029
03:25:04,800 --> 03:25:11,439
$500 million valuation.
4030
03:25:07,520 --> 03:25:15,040
The stake is now worth $51 million, 100
4031
03:25:11,439 --> 03:25:17,439
times return on his original investment.
4032
03:25:15,040 --> 03:25:22,000
October 2007,
4033
03:25:17,439 --> 03:25:25,680
Microsoft invests $240 million, valuing
4034
03:25:22,000 --> 03:25:30,080
Facebook at $15 billion.
4035
03:25:25,680 --> 03:25:34,640
Theel stake is now worth $1.5 billion, a
4036
03:25:30,080 --> 03:25:37,600
300,000 times return in 3 years.
4037
03:25:34,640 --> 03:25:40,000
2009 through 2011,
4038
03:25:37,600 --> 03:25:43,120
multiple private sales and secondary
4039
03:25:40,000 --> 03:25:44,960
transactions value Facebook at $50
4040
03:25:43,120 --> 03:25:47,920
billion.
4041
03:25:44,960 --> 03:25:51,359
The stake, if he had held everything,
4042
03:25:47,920 --> 03:25:54,720
would be worth $5 billion.
4043
03:25:51,359 --> 03:25:57,120
May 18th, 2012.
4044
03:25:54,720 --> 03:26:02,000
Facebook goes public at a market
4045
03:25:57,120 --> 03:26:04,640
capitalization of $14 billion.
4046
03:26:02,000 --> 03:26:07,840
But Theel does not hold everything. He
4047
03:26:04,640 --> 03:26:11,200
is strategic. He is tactical. He takes
4048
03:26:07,840 --> 03:26:15,200
profits. At the initial public offering,
4049
03:26:11,200 --> 03:26:16,880
Theel sells $640 million worth of shares
4050
03:26:15,200 --> 03:26:19,200
immediately.
4051
03:26:16,880 --> 03:26:21,359
Over the following 6 months, he sells
4052
03:26:19,200 --> 03:26:23,680
the remainder of his stake in carefully
4053
03:26:21,359 --> 03:26:25,920
timed transactions.
4054
03:26:23,680 --> 03:26:30,640
Total cash realized from the Facebook
4055
03:26:25,920 --> 03:26:33,920
investment approximately $1 billion.
4056
03:26:30,640 --> 03:26:35,920
Initial investment in August 2004,
4057
03:26:33,920 --> 03:26:40,080
$500,000.
4058
03:26:35,920 --> 03:26:41,840
Total cash realized by end of 2012, $1
4059
03:26:40,080 --> 03:26:46,560
billion.
4060
03:26:41,840 --> 03:26:48,479
Total return 2,000 times in 8 years.
4061
03:26:46,560 --> 03:26:51,359
This is the single greatest venture
4062
03:26:48,479 --> 03:26:54,479
capital return in recorded history.
4063
03:26:51,359 --> 03:26:57,680
Nothing else comes close. But here is
4064
03:26:54,479 --> 03:27:00,560
the twist. The haunting decision that
4065
03:26:57,680 --> 03:27:04,160
Theel himself admits keeps him awake at
4066
03:27:00,560 --> 03:27:06,880
night. Selling was a mistake.
4067
03:27:04,160 --> 03:27:10,239
If Peter Theal had held his original
4068
03:27:06,880 --> 03:27:12,880
10.2% stake and had never sold a single
4069
03:27:10,239 --> 03:27:16,560
share, that stake at Facebook's peak
4070
03:27:12,880 --> 03:27:20,399
market capitalization in 2021 would have
4071
03:27:16,560 --> 03:27:23,520
been worth $12 billion.
4072
03:27:20,399 --> 03:27:26,560
$12 billion.
4073
03:27:23,520 --> 03:27:28,720
He left $100 billion on the table by
4074
03:27:26,560 --> 03:27:30,960
selling early.
4075
03:27:28,720 --> 03:27:33,359
The himself admitted this publicly,
4076
03:27:30,960 --> 03:27:36,160
saying, "The mistake was not investing
4077
03:27:33,359 --> 03:27:37,760
in Facebook. The mistake was selling
4078
03:27:36,160 --> 03:27:40,479
Facebook.
4079
03:27:37,760 --> 03:27:43,040
I should have held longer. I should have
4080
03:27:40,479 --> 03:27:47,680
believed more. It is the single most
4081
03:27:43,040 --> 03:27:50,160
expensive decision of his life." Years
4082
03:27:47,680 --> 03:27:53,200
later in a Stanford lecture, Theo
4083
03:27:50,160 --> 03:27:56,720
explained his actual investment thesis,
4084
03:27:53,200 --> 03:27:58,640
the real reason he invested. I did not
4085
03:27:56,720 --> 03:28:01,439
invest in Facebook because I thought
4086
03:27:58,640 --> 03:28:03,200
social networks were going to be big. I
4087
03:28:01,439 --> 03:28:05,600
invested because I understood that
4088
03:28:03,200 --> 03:28:09,359
humans will always want to be more like
4089
03:28:05,600 --> 03:28:13,120
their peers. That desire is infinite. It
4090
03:28:09,359 --> 03:28:15,680
never stops. It only intensifies.
4091
03:28:13,120 --> 03:28:19,279
An infinite desire creates infinite
4092
03:28:15,680 --> 03:28:20,800
value. The mimemetic theory made him a
4093
03:28:19,279 --> 03:28:23,040
billionaire.
4094
03:28:20,800 --> 03:28:26,640
The mimemetic theory also made him
4095
03:28:23,040 --> 03:28:30,000
terrified of what he had helped create.
4096
03:28:26,640 --> 03:28:32,479
A machine that weaponizes human envy. A
4097
03:28:30,000 --> 03:28:34,399
system that profits from making people
4098
03:28:32,479 --> 03:28:37,040
feel inadequate.
4099
03:28:34,399 --> 03:28:40,640
An algorithm that amplifies the worst
4100
03:28:37,040 --> 03:28:42,880
aspects of human nature. Peter Theal
4101
03:28:40,640 --> 03:28:46,479
helped build the most powerful behavior
4102
03:28:42,880 --> 03:28:49,120
modification system in human history.
4103
03:28:46,479 --> 03:28:52,120
And then he cashed out for a billion
4104
03:28:49,120 --> 03:28:52,120
dollars.
4105
03:28:58,479 --> 03:29:03,359
2003
4106
03:29:00,000 --> 03:29:06,560
Peter Theel has a problem. It is the
4107
03:29:03,359 --> 03:29:09,439
CIA's problem, but they think the can
4108
03:29:06,560 --> 03:29:12,239
solve it. His PayPal anti-fraud
4109
03:29:09,439 --> 03:29:14,560
algorithms have become so sophisticated
4110
03:29:12,239 --> 03:29:16,960
at detecting patterns in financial
4111
03:29:14,560 --> 03:29:19,120
transactions at finding terrorists
4112
03:29:16,960 --> 03:29:22,880
trying to move money through banking
4113
03:29:19,120 --> 03:29:26,319
systems that the CIA venture capital arm
4114
03:29:22,880 --> 03:29:29,279
in QEL requested a meeting.
4115
03:29:26,319 --> 03:29:31,920
The pitch from the CIA, can you build
4116
03:29:29,279 --> 03:29:34,399
what you built for PayPal but for
4117
03:29:31,920 --> 03:29:38,080
national security? Can you find
4118
03:29:34,399 --> 03:29:40,000
terrorists the way you found fraudsters?
4119
03:29:38,080 --> 03:29:42,399
May 2003,
4120
03:29:40,000 --> 03:29:44,800
Peter Theel co-founds Palunteer
4121
03:29:42,399 --> 03:29:46,399
Technologies with an unusual group of
4122
03:29:44,800 --> 03:29:49,439
co-founders.
4123
03:29:46,399 --> 03:29:52,800
The founding team, Alex Karp, chief
4124
03:29:49,439 --> 03:29:55,200
executive officer, Stanford Law Degree,
4125
03:29:52,800 --> 03:29:57,920
philosophy, PhD from Frankfurt
4126
03:29:55,200 --> 03:30:00,479
University in Germany, former human
4127
03:29:57,920 --> 03:30:02,080
rights lawyer who once worked on refugee
4128
03:30:00,479 --> 03:30:04,560
cases.
4129
03:30:02,080 --> 03:30:06,560
an extremely odd choice to run a company
4130
03:30:04,560 --> 03:30:08,720
that will become the most powerful
4131
03:30:06,560 --> 03:30:10,239
surveillance technology provider on
4132
03:30:08,720 --> 03:30:12,880
Earth.
4133
03:30:10,239 --> 03:30:15,920
Nathan Gettings, chief technology
4134
03:30:12,880 --> 03:30:18,880
officer. PayPal's lead security
4135
03:30:15,920 --> 03:30:21,840
engineer. Brilliant programmer. Joe
4136
03:30:18,880 --> 03:30:24,800
Lndale, a Stanford undergraduate
4137
03:30:21,840 --> 03:30:28,479
student, barely 20 years old, one of the
4138
03:30:24,800 --> 03:30:31,520
first Theel fellows. Steven Cohen,
4139
03:30:28,479 --> 03:30:33,439
PayPal's chief security architect. the
4140
03:30:31,520 --> 03:30:36,399
person who actually built the fraud
4141
03:30:33,439 --> 03:30:38,080
detection algorithms. Initial funding,
4142
03:30:36,399 --> 03:30:40,239
$2 million,
4143
03:30:38,080 --> 03:30:43,840
entirely from Peter Theel's personal
4144
03:30:40,239 --> 03:30:46,000
capital. No outside investors yet. This
4145
03:30:43,840 --> 03:30:48,640
is his project.
4146
03:30:46,000 --> 03:30:51,279
The mission statement, build software
4147
03:30:48,640 --> 03:30:53,840
that can find patterns in massive data
4148
03:30:51,279 --> 03:30:55,760
sets from disperate, incompatible
4149
03:30:53,840 --> 03:30:58,800
sources.
4150
03:30:55,760 --> 03:31:01,120
The kind of data that if intelligency
4151
03:30:58,800 --> 03:31:04,160
agencies had been able to analyze it
4152
03:31:01,120 --> 03:31:07,040
properly could have prevented September
4153
03:31:04,160 --> 03:31:10,000
11th, 2001.
4154
03:31:07,040 --> 03:31:12,319
The company name Palunteer
4155
03:31:10,000 --> 03:31:14,800
named after the seeing stones in Lord of
4156
03:31:12,319 --> 03:31:16,640
the Rings, the magical orbs that allow
4157
03:31:14,800 --> 03:31:19,600
their possessors to see anything
4158
03:31:16,640 --> 03:31:22,800
happening anywhere in Middle Earth. Even
4159
03:31:19,600 --> 03:31:25,200
the name revealed the ambition total
4160
03:31:22,800 --> 03:31:29,960
information awareness.
4161
03:31:25,200 --> 03:31:29,960
the ability to see everything.
4162
03:31:30,239 --> 03:31:37,680
2005, the CIA's venture capital arm in
4163
03:31:34,399 --> 03:31:40,800
QEL invest $2 million in Palanteer's
4164
03:31:37,680 --> 03:31:43,760
series A funding round. This was not
4165
03:31:40,800 --> 03:31:46,560
just money. This was validation from the
4166
03:31:43,760 --> 03:31:48,960
intelligence community, a stamp of
4167
03:31:46,560 --> 03:31:51,439
approval from the most secretive, most
4168
03:31:48,960 --> 03:31:53,120
paranoid organization in the US
4169
03:31:51,439 --> 03:31:56,960
government.
4170
03:31:53,120 --> 03:31:59,040
Initial contract value undisclosed.
4171
03:31:56,960 --> 03:32:02,319
Government intelligence contracts are
4172
03:31:59,040 --> 03:32:05,040
classified by law, but industry analysts
4173
03:32:02,319 --> 03:32:08,800
estimate the first CIA contracts were
4174
03:32:05,040 --> 03:32:11,920
worth5 to 10 million annually. The
4175
03:32:08,800 --> 03:32:15,120
product was called Palunteer Gotham. The
4176
03:32:11,920 --> 03:32:18,319
name itself was significant. Gotham, the
4177
03:32:15,120 --> 03:32:21,359
dark city that needs Batman. The city
4178
03:32:18,319 --> 03:32:23,920
that needs surveillance to fight crime.
4179
03:32:21,359 --> 03:32:25,840
core technical capabilities.
4180
03:32:23,920 --> 03:32:28,640
Integrate data from dozens of
4181
03:32:25,840 --> 03:32:30,560
incompatible government databases that
4182
03:32:28,640 --> 03:32:33,279
were never designed to communicate with
4183
03:32:30,560 --> 03:32:36,000
each other. From hidden connections
4184
03:32:33,279 --> 03:32:39,840
between people, places, financial
4185
03:32:36,000 --> 03:32:42,479
transactions, communications metadata,
4186
03:32:39,840 --> 03:32:44,800
visualize networks of relationships in
4187
03:32:42,479 --> 03:32:46,720
ways human analysts could understand
4188
03:32:44,800 --> 03:32:49,040
intuitively.
4189
03:32:46,720 --> 03:32:51,279
Predict future behavior and likely
4190
03:32:49,040 --> 03:32:54,239
attack patterns based on historical
4191
03:32:51,279 --> 03:32:57,120
data. Specific use cases for
4192
03:32:54,239 --> 03:33:00,080
intelligence agencies. Track terrorist
4193
03:32:57,120 --> 03:33:02,080
cells across multiple countries. Map
4194
03:33:00,080 --> 03:33:04,319
drug trafficking routes from production
4195
03:33:02,080 --> 03:33:06,399
to distribution.
4196
03:33:04,319 --> 03:33:09,439
Identify money laundering networks
4197
03:33:06,399 --> 03:33:11,920
moving funds for organized crime.
4198
03:33:09,439 --> 03:33:14,080
Predict insurgent attacks in Iraq and
4199
03:33:11,920 --> 03:33:17,760
Afghanistan based on pattern
4200
03:33:14,080 --> 03:33:21,520
recognition. It worked. The software
4201
03:33:17,760 --> 03:33:24,640
actually worked. By 2006, Palanteer
4202
03:33:21,520 --> 03:33:27,600
software was being actively used in Iraq
4203
03:33:24,640 --> 03:33:31,200
for counterinsurgency operations and in
4204
03:33:27,600 --> 03:33:33,439
IED attack prediction.
4205
03:33:31,200 --> 03:33:36,479
Afghanistan for predicting Taliban
4206
03:33:33,439 --> 03:33:40,000
leadership networks. Langley, Virginia
4207
03:33:36,479 --> 03:33:42,800
at CIA headquarters for threat analysis.
4208
03:33:40,000 --> 03:33:46,920
FBI field officers nationwide for
4209
03:33:42,800 --> 03:33:46,920
domestic terrorism investigation.
4210
03:33:46,960 --> 03:33:53,120
Early revenue growth told the story of
4211
03:33:49,120 --> 03:33:55,920
Palanteers expanding reach. 2005
4212
03:33:53,120 --> 03:34:02,239
$3 billion in revenue. Government
4213
03:33:55,920 --> 03:34:07,760
contracts only. 2006 $10 million. 2007
4214
03:34:02,239 --> 03:34:12,319
$25 million. 2008 $50 million. First
4215
03:34:07,760 --> 03:34:18,800
commercial clients added 2010, $150
4216
03:34:12,319 --> 03:34:20,560
million. 2012, $400 million. By 2012,
4217
03:34:18,800 --> 03:34:22,720
Palanteer had achieved something
4218
03:34:20,560 --> 03:34:26,399
extremely rare for a high- growth
4219
03:34:22,720 --> 03:34:28,720
technology company. Profitability.
4220
03:34:26,399 --> 03:34:31,680
They were actually making money, not
4221
03:34:28,720 --> 03:34:34,720
just burning venture capital. Customer
4222
03:34:31,680 --> 03:34:38,720
revenue breakdown in 2012.
4223
03:34:34,720 --> 03:34:41,279
Government contracts, 60% of revenue,
4224
03:34:38,720 --> 03:34:45,760
$240 million.
4225
03:34:41,279 --> 03:34:48,479
Commercial clients, 40% of revenue, $160
4226
03:34:45,760 --> 03:34:52,560
million.
4227
03:34:48,479 --> 03:34:54,880
May the 1st, 2011. Palanteer Software
4228
03:34:52,560 --> 03:34:58,080
plays a role in the operation that kills
4229
03:34:54,880 --> 03:35:00,319
Osama bin Laden. A role that remains
4230
03:34:58,080 --> 03:35:03,520
partially classified, but has been
4231
03:35:00,319 --> 03:35:06,319
confirmed by multiple sources.
4232
03:35:03,520 --> 03:35:08,560
How Palanteer contributed. Palanteer
4233
03:35:06,319 --> 03:35:10,960
Gotham integrated dozens of different
4234
03:35:08,560 --> 03:35:13,439
intelligence sources.
4235
03:35:10,960 --> 03:35:16,560
CIA human intelligence on career
4236
03:35:13,439 --> 03:35:19,200
networks. NSA signal intelligence
4237
03:35:16,560 --> 03:35:22,000
including phone metadata and email
4238
03:35:19,200 --> 03:35:25,200
communications patterns.
4239
03:35:22,000 --> 03:35:28,000
National Geospatial Intelligence Agency
4240
03:35:25,200 --> 03:35:31,200
satellite imagery of potential compound
4241
03:35:28,000 --> 03:35:33,680
locations. historical pattern analysis
4242
03:35:31,200 --> 03:35:36,800
of previous high value target operations
4243
03:35:33,680 --> 03:35:38,880
in Pakistan.
4244
03:35:36,800 --> 03:35:41,200
The system identified patterns and
4245
03:35:38,880 --> 03:35:43,680
connections that human analysts working
4246
03:35:41,200 --> 03:35:46,960
with separate databases that did not
4247
03:35:43,680 --> 03:35:49,200
communicate had missed. It narrowed the
4248
03:35:46,960 --> 03:35:53,600
search area and helped confirm the
4249
03:35:49,200 --> 03:35:55,680
identity of the Abotabad compound.
4250
03:35:53,600 --> 03:35:58,640
When asked about Palanteer's role in the
4251
03:35:55,680 --> 03:36:01,920
bin Laden operation, The gave carefully
4252
03:35:58,640 --> 03:36:04,720
worded response. I cannot comment on
4253
03:36:01,920 --> 03:36:07,680
specific operations or specific clients
4254
03:36:04,720 --> 03:36:11,359
due to classification requirements, but
4255
03:36:07,680 --> 03:36:13,600
I will say this. Tools that help protect
4256
03:36:11,359 --> 03:36:16,800
American lives and help intelligence
4257
03:36:13,600 --> 03:36:20,160
professionals do their jobs better. That
4258
03:36:16,800 --> 03:36:22,399
is our mission.
4259
03:36:20,160 --> 03:36:25,359
This single operation, this single
4260
03:36:22,399 --> 03:36:27,359
success legitimized Palanteer's entire
4261
03:36:25,359 --> 03:36:29,840
value proposition to the national
4262
03:36:27,359 --> 03:36:32,640
security establishment.
4263
03:36:29,840 --> 03:36:35,120
After bin Laden, the contracts poured
4264
03:36:32,640 --> 03:36:37,840
in.
4265
03:36:35,120 --> 03:36:40,800
After the bin Laden success, Palanteer's
4266
03:36:37,840 --> 03:36:45,439
government business exploded. Revenue
4267
03:36:40,800 --> 03:36:50,720
growth from 2012 to 2015.
4268
03:36:45,439 --> 03:36:57,600
2012, $400 million in revenue. 2013,
4269
03:36:50,720 --> 03:37:01,359
$600 million. 2014, $900 million. 2015,
4270
03:36:57,600 --> 03:37:05,640
$1.5 billion in revenue. Major new
4271
03:37:01,359 --> 03:37:05,640
contracts announced publicly.
4272
03:37:07,040 --> 03:37:14,479
US Department of Defense, $222 million
4273
03:37:11,600 --> 03:37:16,239
for a 3-year data integration platform
4274
03:37:14,479 --> 03:37:20,239
contract.
4275
03:37:16,239 --> 03:37:23,359
US Army, $800 million for comprehensive
4276
03:37:20,239 --> 03:37:25,520
data platform modernization across all
4277
03:37:23,359 --> 03:37:29,680
army systems.
4278
03:37:25,520 --> 03:37:32,399
US Special Operations Command, $444
4279
03:37:29,680 --> 03:37:34,080
million for targeting and intelligence
4280
03:37:32,399 --> 03:37:37,600
fusion,
4281
03:37:34,080 --> 03:37:39,920
Department of Homeland Security, $240
4282
03:37:37,600 --> 03:37:43,040
million for border security and
4283
03:37:39,920 --> 03:37:45,520
immigration enforcement systems.
4284
03:37:43,040 --> 03:37:48,080
Palanteer had become the single most
4285
03:37:45,520 --> 03:37:49,920
important software company in the entire
4286
03:37:48,080 --> 03:37:51,520
US defense and intelligence
4287
03:37:49,920 --> 03:37:53,840
establishment,
4288
03:37:51,520 --> 03:37:57,040
more important than traditional defense
4289
03:37:53,840 --> 03:37:59,040
contractors, more embedded in classified
4290
03:37:57,040 --> 03:38:01,680
operations.
4291
03:37:59,040 --> 03:38:03,600
Simultaneously, Palanteer launched a
4292
03:38:01,680 --> 03:38:06,960
commercial product called Palunteer
4293
03:38:03,600 --> 03:38:10,000
Foundry for private sector clients. The
4294
03:38:06,960 --> 03:38:12,239
sales pitch to corporate America. Your
4295
03:38:10,000 --> 03:38:15,920
company has exactly the same problem as
4296
03:38:12,239 --> 03:38:18,560
the CIA. Too much data, too many
4297
03:38:15,920 --> 03:38:20,880
incompatible systems, not enough
4298
03:38:18,560 --> 03:38:23,520
insight. We can help you find the
4299
03:38:20,880 --> 03:38:25,680
patterns you are missing. Major
4300
03:38:23,520 --> 03:38:29,200
commercial clients and estimated
4301
03:38:25,680 --> 03:38:34,080
contract values.
4302
03:38:29,200 --> 03:38:35,840
JP Morgan Chase over $100 million fraud
4303
03:38:34,080 --> 03:38:39,200
detection and financial crime
4304
03:38:35,840 --> 03:38:42,080
prevention. Morgan Stanley over $50
4305
03:38:39,200 --> 03:38:46,880
million risk management and regulatory
4306
03:38:42,080 --> 03:38:49,040
compliance. Airbus over $75 million
4307
03:38:46,880 --> 03:38:51,760
supply chain optimization and
4308
03:38:49,040 --> 03:38:55,920
manufacturing analytics.
4309
03:38:51,760 --> 03:38:58,560
Merc Pharmaceuticals over $60 million
4310
03:38:55,920 --> 03:39:01,439
drug discovery analytics and clinical
4311
03:38:58,560 --> 03:39:06,080
trial data integration.
4312
03:39:01,439 --> 03:39:09,920
BP over $80 million oil field production
4313
03:39:06,080 --> 03:39:13,120
optimization and predictive maintenance.
4314
03:39:09,920 --> 03:39:14,960
Commercial revenue growth from 2015 to
4315
03:39:13,120 --> 03:39:18,239
2020.
4316
03:39:14,960 --> 03:39:21,920
In 2015, they got $600 million
4317
03:39:18,239 --> 03:39:24,720
commercial revenue. By 2016, the number
4318
03:39:21,920 --> 03:39:28,560
was around $800 billion.
4319
03:39:24,720 --> 03:39:30,800
In 2017, they reached $1.1 billion in
4320
03:39:28,560 --> 03:39:35,680
commercial revenue, and it became their
4321
03:39:30,800 --> 03:39:38,720
peak year. 2018 made them hit the $750
4322
03:39:35,680 --> 03:39:42,200
million mark, a temporary decline due to
4323
03:39:38,720 --> 03:39:42,200
customer churn.
4324
03:39:42,239 --> 03:39:48,080
In 2019, revenue was around $745
4325
03:39:46,399 --> 03:39:51,920
million,
4326
03:39:48,080 --> 03:39:55,920
and by 2020, they reached $1.1 billion.
4327
03:39:51,920 --> 03:39:59,040
Again, this recovery was driven by COVID
4328
03:39:55,920 --> 03:40:01,200
analytics contracts. Palanteer had
4329
03:39:59,040 --> 03:40:04,560
created a business model with two
4330
03:40:01,200 --> 03:40:06,479
enormous locked in customer bases, the
4331
03:40:04,560 --> 03:40:10,680
US government and the largest
4332
03:40:06,479 --> 03:40:10,680
corporations in the world.
4333
03:40:12,160 --> 03:40:17,279
But Palanteer's work, especially for
4334
03:40:14,479 --> 03:40:20,720
government agencies, attracted intense
4335
03:40:17,279 --> 03:40:23,680
controversy and moral criticism.
4336
03:40:20,720 --> 03:40:27,760
In 2019, they secured a contract with
4337
03:40:23,680 --> 03:40:30,319
ICE for $49 million. The purpose of the
4338
03:40:27,760 --> 03:40:32,720
contract was enforcement and removal
4339
03:40:30,319 --> 03:40:35,680
operations systems,
4340
03:40:32,720 --> 03:40:38,080
meaning a software used to identify,
4341
03:40:35,680 --> 03:40:40,880
track, and process undocumented
4342
03:40:38,080 --> 03:40:43,040
immigrants for deportation.
4343
03:40:40,880 --> 03:40:45,840
This project came with a controversy
4344
03:40:43,040 --> 03:40:47,840
attached. The software was used during
4345
03:40:45,840 --> 03:40:50,640
the family separation policy at the
4346
03:40:47,840 --> 03:40:54,080
southern border. Children separated from
4347
03:40:50,640 --> 03:40:56,160
their parents, families torn apart.
4348
03:40:54,080 --> 03:40:58,960
Palanteer Software helped make it
4349
03:40:56,160 --> 03:41:01,520
operationally possible. Hundreds of
4350
03:40:58,960 --> 03:41:03,840
Palunteer employees signed an internal
4351
03:41:01,520 --> 03:41:07,040
letter demanding the company cancel the
4352
03:41:03,840 --> 03:41:09,279
ICE contract.
4353
03:41:07,040 --> 03:41:12,319
They argued the company was enabling
4354
03:41:09,279 --> 03:41:16,160
human rights abuses. The and Karp's
4355
03:41:12,319 --> 03:41:18,080
response, absolute refusal, the contract
4356
03:41:16,160 --> 03:41:20,720
would continue.
4357
03:41:18,080 --> 03:41:22,960
Alex K gave a public statement saying
4358
03:41:20,720 --> 03:41:26,560
that they had chosen sides and that the
4359
03:41:22,960 --> 03:41:28,960
company supported American institutions.
4360
03:41:26,560 --> 03:41:32,319
But this was not the only controversy
4361
03:41:28,960 --> 03:41:35,279
Palanteer has faced. Palanteer worked
4362
03:41:32,319 --> 03:41:39,200
alongside the NYPD with a contract
4363
03:41:35,279 --> 03:41:42,880
estimated between 50 and $100 billion.
4364
03:41:39,200 --> 03:41:45,120
The mission predictive policy.
4365
03:41:42,880 --> 03:41:47,760
They were asked to use historical crime
4366
03:41:45,120 --> 03:41:50,640
data to predict where future crimes will
4367
03:41:47,760 --> 03:41:53,359
occur and who is likely to commit them.
4368
03:41:50,640 --> 03:41:56,239
The controversy civil rights groups
4369
03:41:53,359 --> 03:41:59,120
argued that system perpetuated racial
4370
03:41:56,239 --> 03:42:02,000
bias. Minority neighborhoods were
4371
03:41:59,120 --> 03:42:04,239
flagged as high risk. Innocent people
4372
03:42:02,000 --> 03:42:07,520
were put under surveillance based on
4373
03:42:04,239 --> 03:42:11,200
algorithmic predictions.
4374
03:42:07,520 --> 03:42:13,600
Joe Londale, Palunteer co-founder, had
4375
03:42:11,200 --> 03:42:15,200
made a personal investment in Cambridge
4376
03:42:13,600 --> 03:42:17,600
Analytica.
4377
03:42:15,200 --> 03:42:20,000
Multiple Palunteer employees on their
4378
03:42:17,600 --> 03:42:24,520
own time helped Cambridge Analytica
4379
03:42:20,000 --> 03:42:24,520
build data integration models.
4380
03:42:24,640 --> 03:42:29,680
Both companies use similar approaches to
4381
03:42:27,359 --> 03:42:31,279
data harvesting and psychological
4382
03:42:29,680 --> 03:42:33,120
profiling.
4383
03:42:31,279 --> 03:42:35,920
When the connection was exposed by
4384
03:42:33,120 --> 03:42:39,040
journalists, Palanteer claimed there was
4385
03:42:35,920 --> 03:42:42,319
no institutional relationship, just
4386
03:42:39,040 --> 03:42:44,640
coincidental personal connections.
4387
03:42:42,319 --> 03:42:47,040
But the damage to Palanteer's reputation
4388
03:42:44,640 --> 03:42:48,720
was done. Theel had built the
4389
03:42:47,040 --> 03:42:51,040
panopticon.
4390
03:42:48,720 --> 03:42:53,520
The allseeing eye of corporate and
4391
03:42:51,040 --> 03:42:56,960
government surveillance.
4392
03:42:53,520 --> 03:43:00,160
September the 30th, 2020.
4393
03:42:56,960 --> 03:43:02,080
After 17 years as a private company, one
4394
03:43:00,160 --> 03:43:04,800
of the longest periods of private
4395
03:43:02,080 --> 03:43:07,760
operation for any major tech company,
4396
03:43:04,800 --> 03:43:10,800
Palanteer finally goes public through a
4397
03:43:07,760 --> 03:43:13,680
direct listing.
4398
03:43:10,800 --> 03:43:16,640
They went public at $10 per share and
4399
03:43:13,680 --> 03:43:20,239
their market capitalization at market
4400
03:43:16,640 --> 03:43:23,520
open was $16 billion.
4401
03:43:20,239 --> 03:43:25,439
By the first day, shares were down 5%.
4402
03:43:23,520 --> 03:43:26,960
The stock was initially a
4403
03:43:25,439 --> 03:43:29,040
disappointment.
4404
03:43:26,960 --> 03:43:31,120
Investors were skeptical of the business
4405
03:43:29,040 --> 03:43:33,680
model, worried about customer
4406
03:43:31,120 --> 03:43:35,840
concentration, concerned about the
4407
03:43:33,680 --> 03:43:38,880
controversy.
4408
03:43:35,840 --> 03:43:41,920
But then COVID 19 created massive new
4409
03:43:38,880 --> 03:43:45,840
demand for Palanteer's capabilities.
4410
03:43:41,920 --> 03:43:48,239
2020 to 2021, Palanteer wins enormous
4411
03:43:45,840 --> 03:43:51,439
pandemic related government contracts
4412
03:43:48,239 --> 03:43:53,520
with governments across the world. The
4413
03:43:51,439 --> 03:43:56,800
pandemic proved that governments needed
4414
03:43:53,520 --> 03:43:59,840
Palanteer and the market responded.
4415
03:43:56,800 --> 03:44:05,760
By late 2021, Palanteer stock had
4416
03:43:59,840 --> 03:44:08,239
exploded. $29 per share at 190% gain
4417
03:44:05,760 --> 03:44:09,920
from the direct listing price. Market
4418
03:44:08,239 --> 03:44:13,479
capitalization
4419
03:44:09,920 --> 03:44:13,479
$60 billion.
4420
03:44:14,640 --> 03:44:21,600
Peter Theal stake approximately 7%
4421
03:44:18,239 --> 03:44:24,399
ownership worth 4.2 2 billion at the
4422
03:44:21,600 --> 03:44:26,800
peak. 2022,
4423
03:44:24,399 --> 03:44:30,239
the tech crash hits Palanteer brutally
4424
03:44:26,800 --> 03:44:34,399
hard. Stock prices crash to $6 per
4425
03:44:30,239 --> 03:44:38,000
share, down 8% from the peak. Market cap
4426
03:44:34,399 --> 03:44:40,080
collapses to $13 billion.
4427
03:44:38,000 --> 03:44:46,000
The paper wealth from Palanteer
4428
03:44:40,080 --> 03:44:49,279
evaporates. Billions gone. 2023 to 2024,
4429
03:44:46,000 --> 03:44:51,680
the AI boom creates new opportunity.
4430
03:44:49,279 --> 03:44:54,640
Palanteer markets itself as the AI
4431
03:44:51,680 --> 03:44:57,600
platform for governments and enterprises
4432
03:44:54,640 --> 03:45:02,319
and they get major new contract wins.
4433
03:44:57,600 --> 03:45:04,479
The US Army invested $463 million for AI
4434
03:45:02,319 --> 03:45:07,359
powered battlefield analytics and
4435
03:45:04,479 --> 03:45:09,920
decision support systems.
4436
03:45:07,359 --> 03:45:14,640
Palanteer stock recovered
4437
03:45:09,920 --> 03:45:17,199
25 to 30 per share by 2024.
4438
03:45:14,640 --> 03:45:20,160
As of 2024, Peter Theel's current
4439
03:45:17,199 --> 03:45:22,640
Palanteer holdings are approximately 7%
4440
03:45:20,160 --> 03:45:26,800
of all shares with a current value
4441
03:45:22,640 --> 03:45:31,319
ranging from 3.8 to $4.5 billion
4442
03:45:26,800 --> 03:45:31,319
depending on daily stock price.
4443
03:45:32,960 --> 03:45:37,840
This makes Palunteer's
4444
03:45:35,600 --> 03:45:42,080
single largest source of personal
4445
03:45:37,840 --> 03:45:44,080
wealth. In 2024, Palanteer's financial
4446
03:45:42,080 --> 03:45:46,960
performance was divided between
4447
03:45:44,080 --> 03:45:50,640
government and commercial revenue. The
4448
03:45:46,960 --> 03:45:53,840
company's net income was $2.5 billion
4449
03:45:50,640 --> 03:45:55,760
annually. And as big as the number is,
4450
03:45:53,840 --> 03:45:58,319
this might represent a future problem
4451
03:45:55,760 --> 03:46:00,960
for the company. If government budget
4452
03:45:58,319 --> 03:46:04,000
cuts happen, Palanteer is extremely
4453
03:46:00,960 --> 03:46:05,680
vulnerable. Their entire business model
4454
03:46:04,000 --> 03:46:09,199
depends on continued government
4455
03:46:05,680 --> 03:46:12,239
spending. Here is Peter Theel's
4456
03:46:09,199 --> 03:46:14,319
fundamental contradiction. The paradox
4457
03:46:12,239 --> 03:46:17,040
at the heart of everything he has built.
4458
03:46:14,319 --> 03:46:20,640
He claims to be a libertarian who values
4459
03:46:17,040 --> 03:46:22,560
individual freedom above all else. A man
4460
03:46:20,640 --> 03:46:24,960
who believes government power should be
4461
03:46:22,560 --> 03:46:28,160
minimal. A man who wrote that freedom
4462
03:46:24,960 --> 03:46:30,720
and democracy are incompatible.
4463
03:46:28,160 --> 03:46:33,439
Yet, he built the most powerful private
4464
03:46:30,720 --> 03:46:36,160
surveillance technology company in human
4465
03:46:33,439 --> 03:46:37,920
history. A company that gives
4466
03:46:36,160 --> 03:46:41,359
governments and corporations
4467
03:46:37,920 --> 03:46:44,640
unprecedented ability to monitor, track,
4468
03:46:41,359 --> 03:46:47,120
predict, and control human behavior.
4469
03:46:44,640 --> 03:46:50,000
Palunteers technical capabilities
4470
03:46:47,120 --> 03:46:52,399
include realtime tracking of individuals
4471
03:46:50,000 --> 03:46:55,399
across multiple data sources and
4472
03:46:52,399 --> 03:46:55,399
databases.
4473
03:46:56,000 --> 03:47:00,720
Predictive behavioral modeling that
4474
03:46:58,640 --> 03:47:03,920
forecasts what people will do before
4475
03:47:00,720 --> 03:47:06,319
they do it. Network analysis that maps
4476
03:47:03,920 --> 03:47:09,760
every person you have ever contacted
4477
03:47:06,319 --> 03:47:12,479
through any medium. Complete integration
4478
03:47:09,760 --> 03:47:16,080
of financial records, communication
4479
03:47:12,479 --> 03:47:19,279
metadata, location history, and social
4480
03:47:16,080 --> 03:47:21,199
relationship data into a single unified
4481
03:47:19,279 --> 03:47:23,840
profile.
4482
03:47:21,199 --> 03:47:26,080
Field's defense of this contradiction
4483
03:47:23,840 --> 03:47:30,319
was explaining that the alternative to
4484
03:47:26,080 --> 03:47:32,960
Palanteer is not no surveillance.
4485
03:47:30,319 --> 03:47:35,120
The alternative is worse surveillance
4486
03:47:32,960 --> 03:47:38,160
performed by incompetent government
4487
03:47:35,120 --> 03:47:42,199
bureaucrats using decades old technology
4488
03:47:38,160 --> 03:47:42,199
that does not work properly.
4489
03:47:43,760 --> 03:47:50,239
The critics's response was obvious. They
4490
03:47:46,720 --> 03:47:54,399
told Theo he had built the panopticon,
4491
03:47:50,239 --> 03:47:56,479
the architecture of total surveillance.
4492
03:47:54,399 --> 03:47:58,800
A system allowing governments around the
4493
03:47:56,479 --> 03:48:01,680
world to use their citizens information
4494
03:47:58,800 --> 03:48:04,239
to control them, not a system to protect
4495
03:48:01,680 --> 03:48:06,560
them, said the critics.
4496
03:48:04,239 --> 03:48:09,359
Palanteer now operates in dozens of
4497
03:48:06,560 --> 03:48:12,239
countries worldwide. The United States,
4498
03:48:09,359 --> 03:48:15,120
the United Kingdom, Germany, France,
4499
03:48:12,239 --> 03:48:17,279
Australia, and even Japan.
4500
03:48:15,120 --> 03:48:20,319
The company has some controversial
4501
03:48:17,279 --> 03:48:23,279
international clients, some confirmed,
4502
03:48:20,319 --> 03:48:26,880
some alleged, but the total estimated
4503
03:48:23,279 --> 03:48:31,279
value of all global contracts lifetime,
4504
03:48:26,880 --> 03:48:34,160
over $10 billion in contract value.
4505
03:48:31,279 --> 03:48:37,199
Palanteer is Peter Theel's most
4506
03:48:34,160 --> 03:48:40,319
important company. Not because of its
4507
03:48:37,199 --> 03:48:42,720
valuation, though that is substantial.
4508
03:48:40,319 --> 03:48:46,399
Not because of its revenue, though that
4509
03:48:42,720 --> 03:48:48,720
is significant. Palanteer is important
4510
03:48:46,399 --> 03:48:51,680
because it reveals the truth about
4511
03:48:48,720 --> 03:48:54,319
Theo's worldview. It is the bridge
4512
03:48:51,680 --> 03:48:58,000
between his libertarian philosophy and
4513
03:48:54,319 --> 03:49:01,040
his authoritarian reality. He claims to
4514
03:48:58,000 --> 03:49:03,760
want freedom from government control.
4515
03:49:01,040 --> 03:49:05,920
But Palanteer gives governments
4516
03:49:03,760 --> 03:49:08,560
unprecedented control over their
4517
03:49:05,920 --> 03:49:10,720
citizens. The resolution of this
4518
03:49:08,560 --> 03:49:13,520
apparent contradiction.
4519
03:49:10,720 --> 03:49:16,800
Peter the believes in freedom for the
4520
03:49:13,520 --> 03:49:18,960
elite and surveillance for everyone
4521
03:49:16,800 --> 03:49:21,279
else.
4522
03:49:18,960 --> 03:49:24,479
In his vision of the world, there are
4523
03:49:21,279 --> 03:49:26,720
rulers and there are the ruled. There
4524
03:49:24,479 --> 03:49:29,359
are the people who make the decisions
4525
03:49:26,720 --> 03:49:31,920
and the people who are managed.
4526
03:49:29,359 --> 03:49:34,160
Palanteer is the enforcement mechanism
4527
03:49:31,920 --> 03:49:36,720
for that hierarchy.
4528
03:49:34,160 --> 03:49:39,680
The technology that ensures the rulers
4529
03:49:36,720 --> 03:49:42,239
can see everything. the system that
4530
03:49:39,680 --> 03:49:45,680
makes resistance impossible because
4531
03:49:42,239 --> 03:49:48,800
privacy no longer exists. And Peter
4532
03:49:45,680 --> 03:49:51,680
Theal sits at the center of that eye,
4533
03:49:48,800 --> 03:49:57,080
watching the world, seeing everything.
4534
03:49:51,680 --> 03:49:57,080
The architect of the surveillance state.
4535
03:49:59,520 --> 03:50:05,359
In 2016, Peter Theel made an investment
4536
03:50:03,279 --> 03:50:08,640
that every other major technology
4537
03:50:05,359 --> 03:50:11,040
investor avoided.
4538
03:50:08,640 --> 03:50:13,199
While his peers in Silicon Valley were
4539
03:50:11,040 --> 03:50:16,960
contributing millions to the opposing
4540
03:50:13,199 --> 03:50:19,760
campaign, Theel wrote a check for 1.25
4541
03:50:16,960 --> 03:50:23,840
million to Donald Trump's presidential
4542
03:50:19,760 --> 03:50:27,680
campaign. This was not ideology. This
4543
03:50:23,840 --> 03:50:30,720
was portfolio diversification.
4544
03:50:27,680 --> 03:50:35,359
The has always invested in contrarian
4545
03:50:30,720 --> 03:50:38,160
positions. When everyone zigs, he zags.
4546
03:50:35,359 --> 03:50:41,120
When consensus forms in one direction,
4547
03:50:38,160 --> 03:50:44,960
he looks for asymmetric opportunities in
4548
03:50:41,120 --> 03:50:47,520
the other. The 2006 donation gave him
4549
03:50:44,960 --> 03:50:50,800
something money usually cannot buy in
4550
03:50:47,520 --> 03:50:54,160
Silicon Valley, direct access to
4551
03:50:50,800 --> 03:50:57,760
executive power. The return on that
4552
03:50:54,160 --> 03:51:00,399
$1.25 $25 million investment,
4553
03:50:57,760 --> 03:51:03,760
a seat on the presidential transition
4554
03:51:00,399 --> 03:51:06,960
team, input on federal technology
4555
03:51:03,760 --> 03:51:09,760
policy, direct communication channels to
4556
03:51:06,960 --> 03:51:13,279
the White House, credibility as a
4557
03:51:09,760 --> 03:51:15,920
Washington power broker,
4558
03:51:13,279 --> 03:51:17,680
and most measurably, Palanteer's
4559
03:51:15,920 --> 03:51:21,040
government contracts increased
4560
03:51:17,680 --> 03:51:23,439
substantially during this period.
4561
03:51:21,040 --> 03:51:26,720
that feels most significant political
4562
03:51:23,439 --> 03:51:28,319
investments came in the 2022 midterm
4563
03:51:26,720 --> 03:51:32,000
elections.
4564
03:51:28,319 --> 03:51:35,520
Two candidates, both former employees,
4565
03:51:32,000 --> 03:51:37,439
both running for United States Senate.
4566
03:51:35,520 --> 03:51:40,319
The financial commitment was
4567
03:51:37,439 --> 03:51:42,800
unprecedented in scale.
4568
03:51:40,319 --> 03:51:44,880
Vance had worked at Theel's venture
4569
03:51:42,800 --> 03:51:47,920
capital firm before writing his
4570
03:51:44,880 --> 03:51:50,000
best-selling memoir. Field's total
4571
03:51:47,920 --> 03:51:54,960
financial commitment
4572
03:51:50,000 --> 03:51:57,279
direct campaign contribution $15 million
4573
03:51:54,960 --> 03:52:00,880
super PAC expenditures
4574
03:51:57,279 --> 03:52:02,640
$5 million combined investment $20
4575
03:52:00,880 --> 03:52:05,840
million.
4576
03:52:02,640 --> 03:52:08,319
This set a record as the largest single
4577
03:52:05,840 --> 03:52:11,760
donor contribution to an individual
4578
03:52:08,319 --> 03:52:14,960
Senate campaign in American history. The
4579
03:52:11,760 --> 03:52:18,560
outcome Vance won by six percentage
4580
03:52:14,960 --> 03:52:21,359
points. Masters had worked directly for
4581
03:52:18,560 --> 03:52:23,359
Theel as chief operating officer at
4582
03:52:21,359 --> 03:52:25,359
Theel Capital.
4583
03:52:23,359 --> 03:52:27,680
Theel's financial commitment to his
4584
03:52:25,359 --> 03:52:31,600
campaign was a combined investment of
4585
03:52:27,680 --> 03:52:34,640
$20 million. But unlike Vance, Masters
4586
03:52:31,600 --> 03:52:38,239
lost by 5 percentage points.
4587
03:52:34,640 --> 03:52:42,160
The total 2022 midterm investment was
4588
03:52:38,239 --> 03:52:44,000
over $40 million in two Senate races.
4589
03:52:42,160 --> 03:52:46,239
two different candidates that would have
4590
03:52:44,000 --> 03:52:49,600
allowed him to be in direct touch with
4591
03:52:46,239 --> 03:52:51,920
power at different chambers and stages.
4592
03:52:49,600 --> 03:52:54,319
For context, the average competitive
4593
03:52:51,920 --> 03:52:58,080
Senate race costs approximately $10
4594
03:52:54,319 --> 03:53:02,760
million total. Peter Theal invested four
4595
03:52:58,080 --> 03:53:02,760
times that amount on two races.
4596
03:53:03,359 --> 03:53:10,160
It's July 2024. JD Vance is selected as
4597
03:53:08,000 --> 03:53:13,040
the Republican vice presidential
4598
03:53:10,160 --> 03:53:15,600
candidate. From a pure investment
4599
03:53:13,040 --> 03:53:18,000
analysis perspective, this transforms
4600
03:53:15,600 --> 03:53:20,800
the return profile and Theel's $20
4601
03:53:18,000 --> 03:53:23,199
million commitment. He has considered
4602
03:53:20,800 --> 03:53:27,279
the potential financial implications if
4603
03:53:23,199 --> 03:53:29,840
this ticket wins and he gets access to
4604
03:53:27,279 --> 03:53:33,199
executive branch decisionmaking for 8
4605
03:53:29,840 --> 03:53:36,640
years. influence over federal contract
4606
03:53:33,199 --> 03:53:39,600
allocation across multiple agencies.
4607
03:53:36,640 --> 03:53:43,920
Input on technology regulation affecting
4608
03:53:39,600 --> 03:53:46,160
the portfolio companies.
4609
03:53:43,920 --> 03:53:48,319
If we consider what's the estimated
4610
03:53:46,160 --> 03:53:51,680
return on investment for Palanteer's
4611
03:53:48,319 --> 03:53:53,840
government business, what we see is
4612
03:53:51,680 --> 03:53:56,640
current annual government revenue of
4613
03:53:53,840 --> 03:53:59,359
$1.5 billion.
4614
03:53:56,640 --> 03:54:02,640
potential additional contract value over
4615
03:53:59,359 --> 03:54:05,640
eight years conservatively 5 to10
4616
03:54:02,640 --> 03:54:05,640
billion
4617
03:54:05,760 --> 03:54:12,319
and other defense companies in the
4618
03:54:08,800 --> 03:54:14,080
network potential 3 to5 billion in
4619
03:54:12,319 --> 03:54:16,479
contracts
4620
03:54:14,080 --> 03:54:20,080
regulatory treatment of cryptocurrency
4621
03:54:16,479 --> 03:54:23,080
holdings value potentially in tens of
4622
03:54:20,080 --> 03:54:23,080
billions.
4623
03:54:24,720 --> 03:54:30,800
The theoretical return of those 20
4624
03:54:27,279 --> 03:54:34,160
million invested is potentially 15 to 20
4625
03:54:30,800 --> 03:54:38,160
billion captured across the portfolio.
4626
03:54:34,160 --> 03:54:41,920
That represents a potential of 750 to
4627
03:54:38,160 --> 03:54:44,160
1,000 times return. By comparison,
4628
03:54:41,920 --> 03:54:46,479
Theel's Facebook investment returned
4629
03:54:44,160 --> 03:54:48,960
2,000 times.
4630
03:54:46,479 --> 03:54:54,319
To sum it up, the complete political
4631
03:54:48,960 --> 03:54:56,640
spending of the from 2016 to 2022 is 70
4632
03:54:54,319 --> 03:54:59,600
to $80 million.
4633
03:54:56,640 --> 03:55:02,960
For context, Amazon spends 20 million
4634
03:54:59,600 --> 03:55:05,680
annually on lobbying. Meta spends 20
4635
03:55:02,960 --> 03:55:09,439
million annual on lobbying. Google
4636
03:55:05,680 --> 03:55:12,000
spends 12 million annually on lobbying.
4637
03:55:09,439 --> 03:55:14,960
Field's approach is different. Rather
4638
03:55:12,000 --> 03:55:17,120
than ongoing lobbying expenditures, he
4639
03:55:14,960 --> 03:55:19,600
makes concentrated investments in
4640
03:55:17,120 --> 03:55:25,160
individual candidates who potentially
4641
03:55:19,600 --> 03:55:25,160
provide access for years or decades.
4642
03:55:25,199 --> 03:55:30,239
It is the venture capital model applied
4643
03:55:27,680 --> 03:55:33,199
to politics. Make early stage
4644
03:55:30,239 --> 03:55:35,680
investments in promising candidates.
4645
03:55:33,199 --> 03:55:39,040
Provide sufficient capital to help them
4646
03:55:35,680 --> 03:55:41,520
win. Capture value through long-term
4647
03:55:39,040 --> 03:55:44,239
relationships and access.
4648
03:55:41,520 --> 03:55:46,960
The candidates Theel has supported now
4649
03:55:44,239 --> 03:55:49,520
serve on key committees.
4650
03:55:46,960 --> 03:55:51,040
Technology regulation, defense
4651
03:55:49,520 --> 03:55:54,000
appropriations,
4652
03:55:51,040 --> 03:55:56,720
intelligence oversight, banking and
4653
03:55:54,000 --> 03:55:58,960
financial services.
4654
03:55:56,720 --> 03:56:01,439
Precisely the committees that oversee
4655
03:55:58,960 --> 03:56:03,840
industries where the has billions
4656
03:56:01,439 --> 03:56:06,640
invested and where he can use some
4657
03:56:03,840 --> 03:56:09,279
privileged information.
4658
03:56:06,640 --> 03:56:10,720
Is political investment a good use of
4659
03:56:09,279 --> 03:56:14,000
capital?
4660
03:56:10,720 --> 03:56:17,199
The mathematics suggest yes
4661
03:56:14,000 --> 03:56:20,800
70 to 80 million represents less than 1%
4662
03:56:17,199 --> 03:56:22,960
of the's net worth. The potential return
4663
03:56:20,800 --> 03:56:25,840
if accesses translate to favorable
4664
03:56:22,960 --> 03:56:27,920
treatment for portfolio companies could
4665
03:56:25,840 --> 03:56:30,479
be worth billions.
4666
03:56:27,920 --> 03:56:33,199
Even with a 50% success rate, the
4667
03:56:30,479 --> 03:56:34,720
expected value is positive by orders of
4668
03:56:33,199 --> 03:56:37,760
magnitude.
4669
03:56:34,720 --> 03:56:41,760
Investment 70 to 80 million over 8
4670
03:56:37,760 --> 03:56:44,479
years. Potential value captured 15 to 30
4671
03:56:41,760 --> 03:56:48,239
billion across portfolio.
4672
03:56:44,479 --> 03:56:51,520
Expected return 200 to 400 times
4673
03:56:48,239 --> 03:56:54,080
invested capital
4674
03:56:51,520 --> 03:56:57,279
that rivals the best venture capital
4675
03:56:54,080 --> 03:57:00,560
returns in history. Peter Theel is not
4676
03:56:57,279 --> 03:57:03,560
playing politics. He is optimizing his
4677
03:57:00,560 --> 03:57:03,560
portfolio.
4678
03:57:04,880 --> 03:57:10,880
Chapter 7. The final exit.
4679
03:57:08,720 --> 03:57:13,680
Peter Theal has spent his life betting
4680
03:57:10,880 --> 03:57:16,160
on the future, building it, funding it,
4681
03:57:13,680 --> 03:57:20,160
accelerating it. But there is one
4682
03:57:16,160 --> 03:57:24,880
frontier he refuses to accept as fixed.
4683
03:57:20,160 --> 03:57:27,439
Death. To him, mortality is not destiny.
4684
03:57:24,880 --> 03:57:29,760
It is an engineering problem waiting for
4685
03:57:27,439 --> 03:57:31,920
a breakthrough. Unlike every other
4686
03:57:29,760 --> 03:57:35,120
system he has challenged, he believes
4687
03:57:31,920 --> 03:57:37,760
this one too can be redesigned.
4688
03:57:35,120 --> 03:57:40,960
While others plan for retirement, Theel
4689
03:57:37,760 --> 03:57:43,520
funds longevity labs. While governments
4690
03:57:40,960 --> 03:57:45,040
plan for decades, he thinks in
4691
03:57:43,520 --> 03:57:47,199
centuries.
4692
03:57:45,040 --> 03:57:49,760
If time is the ultimate constraint on
4693
03:57:47,199 --> 03:57:52,640
power, then extending life is the
4694
03:57:49,760 --> 03:57:55,760
ultimate leverage. At the edge of the
4695
03:57:52,640 --> 03:57:58,560
world, he built a refuge. Far from
4696
03:57:55,760 --> 03:58:03,040
political centers, far from social
4697
03:57:58,560 --> 03:58:05,359
unrest, close only to time. In Silicon
4698
03:58:03,040 --> 03:58:08,960
Valley, there is a dark joke shared
4699
03:58:05,359 --> 03:58:11,120
quietly among founders and investors.
4700
03:58:08,960 --> 03:58:13,680
How many billionaires does it take to
4701
03:58:11,120 --> 03:58:16,720
buy a country?
4702
03:58:13,680 --> 03:58:20,040
Just one, if he is smart enough to get
4703
03:58:16,720 --> 03:58:20,040
there first.
4704
03:58:20,479 --> 03:58:25,120
He invested in digital currencies that
4705
03:58:22,720 --> 03:58:27,120
governments cannot print. In
4706
03:58:25,120 --> 03:58:30,000
surveillance systems that see what
4707
03:58:27,120 --> 03:58:32,479
others cannot. In political candidates
4708
03:58:30,000 --> 03:58:35,199
who might shape the rules. In
4709
03:58:32,479 --> 03:58:38,800
technologies that might outlive biology
4710
03:58:35,199 --> 03:58:42,439
itself. Not to save the world, to
4711
03:58:38,800 --> 03:58:42,439
outlast it.
4712
03:58:44,399 --> 03:58:49,920
What began as a contingency plan for a
4713
03:58:47,040 --> 03:58:52,800
few has become an unspoken strategy
4714
03:58:49,920 --> 03:58:55,120
among the ultra wealthy.
4715
03:58:52,800 --> 03:58:57,680
When the New Zealand citizenship story
4716
03:58:55,120 --> 03:59:01,279
became public, one of Theo's closest
4717
03:58:57,680 --> 03:59:04,080
peers, Sam Alman, put it bluntly.
4718
03:59:01,279 --> 03:59:07,120
If things go really wrong, I'm flying to
4719
03:59:04,080 --> 03:59:10,239
Peter's place.
4720
03:59:07,120 --> 03:59:13,439
Some men try to make history. Peter
4721
03:59:10,239 --> 03:59:16,239
Theel is trying to escape it.
4722
03:59:13,439 --> 03:59:21,560
And if the future breaks, he intends to
4723
03:59:16,239 --> 03:59:21,560
be standing somewhere it cannot reach.
4724
04:00:47,279 --> 04:00:52,319
Most people see this and think culture.
4725
04:00:50,319 --> 04:00:54,720
They see a charming eco-friendly
4726
04:00:52,319 --> 04:00:57,520
tradition.
4727
04:00:54,720 --> 04:01:00,000
But look closer. This isn't just people
4728
04:00:57,520 --> 04:01:02,479
liking to pedal. What you were watching
4729
04:01:00,000 --> 04:01:04,319
is a highfrequency, low friction
4730
04:01:02,479 --> 04:01:06,160
economic machine.
4731
04:01:04,319 --> 04:01:08,160
>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
4732
04:01:06,160 --> 04:01:09,760
going to become obsolete. Cities are
4733
04:01:08,160 --> 04:01:11,439
building for pedestrians. They're
4734
04:01:09,760 --> 04:01:14,880
building for cycling. They're building
4735
04:01:11,439 --> 04:01:17,520
for livability, not for cars.
4736
04:01:14,880 --> 04:01:21,479
>> The bike economy, the multi-billion
4737
04:01:17,520 --> 04:01:21,479
dollar system of Amsterdam.
4738
04:01:22,640 --> 04:01:29,439
In Amsterdam, the bicycle isn't a toy.
4739
04:01:26,080 --> 04:01:32,319
It is a critical urban infrastructure.
4740
04:01:29,439 --> 04:01:36,760
If this system failed today, the city's
4741
04:01:32,319 --> 04:01:36,760
economy would collapse tomorrow.
4742
04:01:36,880 --> 04:01:42,000
For decades, the world has viewed
4743
04:01:38,800 --> 04:01:45,279
Amsterdam through a romantic lens. But
4744
04:01:42,000 --> 04:01:47,840
cities don't run on vibes. They run on
4745
04:01:45,279 --> 04:01:49,760
systems. And when a system moves
4746
04:01:47,840 --> 04:01:52,720
hundreds of thousands of people every
4747
04:01:49,760 --> 04:01:55,920
single day, it stops being a choice and
4748
04:01:52,720 --> 04:01:58,720
starts demanding three things. space,
4749
04:01:55,920 --> 04:02:00,960
rules, and capital.
4750
04:01:58,720 --> 04:02:03,199
Research shows that the cycling system
4751
04:02:00,960 --> 04:02:06,800
contributes benefits equivalent to
4752
04:02:03,199 --> 04:02:09,760
roughly 3% of the Netherlands GDP.
4753
04:02:06,800 --> 04:02:12,560
This isn't just green energy. It's hard
4754
04:02:09,760 --> 04:02:15,120
cash saved in public health, reduced
4755
04:02:12,560 --> 04:02:18,000
absenteeism at work, and most
4756
04:02:15,120 --> 04:02:20,640
importantly, unlocked productivity.
4757
04:02:18,000 --> 04:02:22,960
Every person on a bike is a person who
4758
04:02:20,640 --> 04:02:25,920
isn't taking up 12 square meters of
4759
04:02:22,960 --> 04:02:28,880
public space with a car. That freed up
4760
04:02:25,920 --> 04:02:32,319
space allows for high value real estate,
4761
04:02:28,880 --> 04:02:37,399
commerce, and tourism. In economics, we
4762
04:02:32,319 --> 04:02:37,399
call this optimization of land use.
4763
04:02:38,880 --> 04:02:45,760
But success created a crisis. By the
4764
04:02:42,239 --> 04:02:47,760
2010s, Amsterdam had a clutter problem.
4765
04:02:45,760 --> 04:02:51,199
Thousands of bikes were choking the
4766
04:02:47,760 --> 04:02:53,279
streets. The solution, one of the most
4767
04:02:51,199 --> 04:02:56,399
expensive and daring engineering
4768
04:02:53,279 --> 04:03:00,239
projects in the city. They built a
4769
04:02:56,399 --> 04:03:01,760
cathedral for 7,000 bicycles under the
4770
04:03:00,239 --> 04:03:04,399
water.
4771
04:03:01,760 --> 04:03:06,479
It cost millions. From a traditional
4772
04:03:04,399 --> 04:03:09,920
linear perspective, spending that much
4773
04:03:06,479 --> 04:03:12,399
on free parking seems insane. But from a
4774
04:03:09,920 --> 04:03:14,800
circular economy perspective, a model
4775
04:03:12,399 --> 04:03:18,160
where Amsterdam is a global leader with
4776
04:03:14,800 --> 04:03:20,960
30.6% circularity rate, it was a
4777
04:03:18,160 --> 04:03:23,040
mandatory investment. As we see in the
4778
04:03:20,960 --> 04:03:25,680
latest urban governance reports,
4779
04:03:23,040 --> 04:03:28,319
planning isn't an option here. It's the
4780
04:03:25,680 --> 04:03:30,880
only way to exist.
4781
04:03:28,319 --> 04:03:34,000
In this documentary, we are going beyond
4782
04:03:30,880 --> 04:03:37,120
the postcard. We will travel back to
4783
04:03:34,000 --> 04:03:40,319
1965 to see why the first sharing
4784
04:03:37,120 --> 04:03:42,960
economy experiment failed. We will use
4785
04:03:40,319 --> 04:03:46,000
scientific GPS data to track the shadow
4786
04:03:42,960 --> 04:03:49,520
economy of the 80,000 bikes stolen every
4787
04:03:46,000 --> 04:03:51,520
year. And we will explore how Amsterdam
4788
04:03:49,520 --> 04:03:55,120
is using the bicycle to become the
4789
04:03:51,520 --> 04:03:58,560
world's first 100% circular city by
4790
04:03:55,120 --> 04:04:00,640
2050. This is the story of how a humble
4791
04:03:58,560 --> 04:04:03,439
machine with two wheels became the
4792
04:04:00,640 --> 04:04:06,439
backbone of a multi-billion dollar urban
4793
04:04:03,439 --> 04:04:06,439
miracle.
4794
04:04:09,199 --> 04:04:15,279
To understand why Amsterdam spends €85
4795
04:04:12,080 --> 04:04:17,680
million on underwater parking today, we
4796
04:04:15,279 --> 04:04:21,040
have to go back to a time when the city
4797
04:04:17,680 --> 04:04:24,040
almost lost its soul to the car, the
4798
04:04:21,040 --> 04:04:24,040
1960s.
4799
04:04:28,239 --> 04:04:34,479
As post-war prosperity grew, Amsterdam
4800
04:04:31,199 --> 04:04:36,640
was being choked by motor vehicles.
4801
04:04:34,479 --> 04:04:38,720
In response, a counterculture group
4802
04:04:36,640 --> 04:04:41,279
called the Provos launched what would
4803
04:04:38,720 --> 04:04:44,800
become the first bike sharing program in
4804
04:04:41,279 --> 04:04:47,120
history, the Vita Fieten Plan, or the
4805
04:04:44,800 --> 04:04:49,760
White Bike Plan.
4806
04:04:47,120 --> 04:04:53,840
Their proposal was radical and purely
4807
04:04:49,760 --> 04:04:56,080
idealistic. Paint 20,000 bicycles white,
4808
04:04:53,840 --> 04:04:59,439
leave them unlocked across the city, and
4809
04:04:56,080 --> 04:05:02,319
let anyone use them for free. No keys,
4810
04:04:59,439 --> 04:05:05,520
no coins, no owners. They viewed
4811
04:05:02,319 --> 04:05:08,479
mobility as a public good, as essential
4812
04:05:05,520 --> 04:05:11,439
and free as the air we breathe. On
4813
04:05:08,479 --> 04:05:12,960
paper, it was a circular economy, avant
4814
04:05:11,439 --> 04:05:16,080
pletra.
4815
04:05:12,960 --> 04:05:19,439
In practice, it was a disaster. Within
4816
04:05:16,080 --> 04:05:21,359
days, the system collapsed. Why? Because
4817
04:05:19,439 --> 04:05:24,399
the provos ignored a fundamental
4818
04:05:21,359 --> 04:05:27,560
principle of economics, the tragedy of
4819
04:05:24,399 --> 04:05:27,560
the commons.
4820
04:06:02,960 --> 04:06:07,840
Without ownership or registration,
4821
04:06:05,120 --> 04:06:10,880
public property quickly became nobody's
4822
04:06:07,840 --> 04:06:13,279
property. In an unregulated system with
4823
04:06:10,880 --> 04:06:15,920
zero entry cost, the incentive to
4824
04:06:13,279 --> 04:06:18,720
maintain the asset disappears. Without
4825
04:06:15,920 --> 04:06:21,520
locks or registration, public property
4826
04:06:18,720 --> 04:06:23,520
quickly became nobody's property. The
4827
04:06:21,520 --> 04:06:26,319
police confiscated the bikes because
4828
04:06:23,520 --> 04:06:29,040
they invited theft and the citizens
4829
04:06:26,319 --> 04:06:31,040
driven by individual rationalism either
4830
04:06:29,040 --> 04:06:33,680
took them home or threw them into the
4831
04:06:31,040 --> 04:06:36,479
canals.
4832
04:06:33,680 --> 04:06:38,560
The lesson was harsh. You cannot have a
4833
04:06:36,479 --> 04:06:40,880
massive urban transit system based
4834
04:06:38,560 --> 04:06:44,520
solely on romanticism.
4835
04:06:40,880 --> 04:06:44,520
You need governance.
4836
04:06:46,160 --> 04:06:52,239
However, the white bikes planted a seed.
4837
04:06:49,199 --> 04:06:54,000
It shifted the economic debate. The city
4838
04:06:52,239 --> 04:06:56,239
realized that if they didn't want to
4839
04:06:54,000 --> 04:06:58,880
spend billions on highways like Los
4840
04:06:56,239 --> 04:07:01,600
Angeles or London, they had to invest in
4841
04:06:58,880 --> 04:07:04,000
a different kind of capital. Transition
4842
04:07:01,600 --> 04:07:06,960
requires not just technology but a
4843
04:07:04,000 --> 04:07:09,040
change in urban metabolism.
4844
04:07:06,960 --> 04:07:11,279
The failure of the white bikes taught
4845
04:07:09,040 --> 04:07:13,439
Amsterdam that the bicycle had to be
4846
04:07:11,279 --> 04:07:16,640
integrated into the formal economy of
4847
04:07:13,439 --> 04:07:20,319
the city, not as a rebel symbol, but as
4848
04:07:16,640 --> 04:07:22,319
a regulated, taxed and planned asset.
4849
04:07:20,319 --> 04:07:25,120
Today, the free spirit of the white
4850
04:07:22,319 --> 04:07:28,319
bikes only survives in one place, the
4851
04:07:25,120 --> 04:07:30,479
Hoga Valu National Park. But in the
4852
04:07:28,319 --> 04:07:33,199
city, the white bike has been replaced
4853
04:07:30,479 --> 04:07:35,760
by a sophisticated capital incentive
4854
04:07:33,199 --> 04:07:38,000
model. We no longer trust in the
4855
04:07:35,760 --> 04:07:41,040
goodness of the user. We trust in
4856
04:07:38,000 --> 04:07:43,439
incentives. We move the tragedy of the
4857
04:07:41,040 --> 04:07:46,640
commons to a system of managed common
4858
04:07:43,439 --> 04:07:49,840
pool resources. In economics, success
4859
04:07:46,640 --> 04:07:52,640
can be as disruptive as failure. By the
4860
04:07:49,840 --> 04:07:55,279
late 2010s, Amsterdam was a victim of
4861
04:07:52,640 --> 04:07:57,760
its own efficiency. With nearly 1
4862
04:07:55,279 --> 04:08:00,479
million bicycles in the city, the urban
4863
04:07:57,760 --> 04:08:03,359
surface had reached a breaking point.
4864
04:08:00,479 --> 04:08:06,640
Every bridge, railing, and sidewalk was
4865
04:08:03,359 --> 04:08:09,199
occupied by idle metal.
4866
04:08:06,640 --> 04:08:12,239
This wasn't just an aesthetic grievance.
4867
04:08:09,199 --> 04:08:14,640
It was an economic bottleneck. Thousands
4868
04:08:12,239 --> 04:08:17,680
of parked bikes were clogging the city's
4869
04:08:14,640 --> 04:08:20,640
arteries, slowing down 200,000 daily
4870
04:08:17,680 --> 04:08:22,800
commuters at Central Station. In one of
4871
04:08:20,640 --> 04:08:25,359
the world's most expensive real estate
4872
04:08:22,800 --> 04:08:27,760
markets, free surface parking is a
4873
04:08:25,359 --> 04:08:30,239
luxury that a functional city cannot
4874
04:08:27,760 --> 04:08:33,680
afford. The opportunity cost of that
4875
04:08:30,239 --> 04:08:36,960
space was becoming too high. To solve
4876
04:08:33,680 --> 04:08:39,920
this, Amsterdam launched the entre, a
4877
04:08:36,960 --> 04:08:42,720
massive urban reconfiguration project.
4878
04:08:39,920 --> 04:08:45,120
The crown jewel, the open haven
4879
04:08:42,720 --> 04:08:48,000
underwater parking.
4880
04:08:45,120 --> 04:08:51,279
Consider that figure. Spending €60
4881
04:08:48,000 --> 04:08:52,800
million just to store 7,000 bicycles
4882
04:08:51,279 --> 04:08:55,199
underwater.
4883
04:08:52,800 --> 04:08:58,319
To a traditional accountant, this looks
4884
04:08:55,199 --> 04:09:01,040
like a massive sunk cost. But to an
4885
04:08:58,319 --> 04:09:04,720
urban economist, it's a master stroke of
4886
04:09:01,040 --> 04:09:07,040
asset management. By moving 7,000 bikes
4887
04:09:04,720 --> 04:09:09,920
beneath the water, the city performed
4888
04:09:07,040 --> 04:09:11,840
open heart surgery on its central hub.
4889
04:09:09,920 --> 04:09:15,199
They reclaimed the surface, restoring
4890
04:09:11,840 --> 04:09:17,520
the landscape to its 1900's aesthetic.
4891
04:09:15,199 --> 04:09:20,800
This isn't just about beauty. It's about
4892
04:09:17,520 --> 04:09:23,040
maximizing pedestrian flow. A station
4893
04:09:20,800 --> 04:09:25,600
that breathes and flows is a station
4894
04:09:23,040 --> 04:09:28,720
that generates higher economic value for
4895
04:09:25,600 --> 04:09:31,680
the surrounding businesses. However, an
4896
04:09:28,720 --> 04:09:33,600
85 million euro asset must be managed
4897
04:09:31,680 --> 04:09:36,479
like a high performance logistics
4898
04:09:33,600 --> 04:09:39,279
center. You cannot allow zombie bikes to
4899
04:09:36,479 --> 04:09:41,279
occupy these slots indefinitely.
4900
04:09:39,279 --> 04:09:44,880
This is where the incentive structure
4901
04:09:41,279 --> 04:09:48,239
comes into play. The primary goal isn't
4902
04:09:44,880 --> 04:09:50,800
profit, it's turnover. By offering the
4903
04:09:48,239 --> 04:09:54,080
first 24 hours for free, the city
4904
04:09:50,800 --> 04:09:56,640
subsidizes the daily workforce. But by
4905
04:09:54,080 --> 04:09:58,640
charging a daily fee thereafter, they
4906
04:09:56,640 --> 04:10:01,600
penalize long-term storage and
4907
04:09:58,640 --> 04:10:03,840
abandonment. Using advanced optical
4908
04:10:01,600 --> 04:10:06,560
sensors, the city monitors idle
4909
04:10:03,840 --> 04:10:09,840
inventory in real time, ensuring that
4910
04:10:06,560 --> 04:10:14,520
these 7,000 slots remain a liquid asset
4911
04:10:09,840 --> 04:10:14,520
for those who keep the economy moving.
4912
04:10:14,560 --> 04:10:19,800
Finally, we must consider the cost of
4913
04:10:16,800 --> 04:10:19,800
friction.
4914
04:10:24,080 --> 04:10:27,080
Transport.
4915
04:10:55,199 --> 04:11:00,000
In transport economics, every second
4916
04:10:57,439 --> 04:11:02,319
lost in a transfer is a loss in human
4917
04:11:00,000 --> 04:11:04,399
capital and productivity.
4918
04:11:02,319 --> 04:11:06,319
This underwater facility connects
4919
04:11:04,399 --> 04:11:09,439
directly to the metro and train
4920
04:11:06,319 --> 04:11:11,760
platforms. A commuter can transition
4921
04:11:09,439 --> 04:11:14,160
from their bicycle to their train seat
4922
04:11:11,760 --> 04:11:16,960
in less than 2 minutes, shielded from
4923
04:11:14,160 --> 04:11:18,960
the elements. This level of intermodel
4924
04:11:16,960 --> 04:11:21,520
synergy is exactly what makes
4925
04:11:18,960 --> 04:11:25,680
Amsterdam's circular economy, currently
4926
04:11:21,520 --> 04:11:28,080
at a record 30.6% circularity rate, a
4927
04:11:25,680 --> 04:11:31,479
functional reality rather than just a
4928
04:11:28,080 --> 04:11:31,479
policy goal.
4929
04:11:54,319 --> 04:11:58,880
But this transition to a highly
4930
04:11:56,080 --> 04:12:01,120
regulated system created its own set of
4931
04:11:58,880 --> 04:12:04,000
problems. Because when you turn a
4932
04:12:01,120 --> 04:12:06,479
bicycle into a valuable economic asset,
4933
04:12:04,000 --> 04:12:09,920
you create something else. A black
4934
04:12:06,479 --> 04:12:12,880
market. In Amsterdam, data doesn't tell
4935
04:12:09,920 --> 04:12:15,600
the whole story. While police record
4936
04:12:12,880 --> 04:12:18,479
11,000 thefts a year, the reality is
4937
04:12:15,600 --> 04:12:21,359
closer to 80,000.
4938
04:12:18,479 --> 04:12:24,000
Most citizens don't report it. Cost of
4939
04:12:21,359 --> 04:12:26,239
time is higher than the bike's value.
4940
04:12:24,000 --> 04:12:28,479
This creates a massive shadow market
4941
04:12:26,239 --> 04:12:31,600
operating entirely outside the official
4942
04:12:28,479 --> 04:12:34,720
GDP. Forget the myth of international
4943
04:12:31,600 --> 04:12:38,399
bike smuggling rings.
4944
04:12:34,720 --> 04:12:40,640
A 2023 study tracking 100 bikes proved
4945
04:12:38,399 --> 04:12:43,760
that stolen assets rarely leave the
4946
04:12:40,640 --> 04:12:46,399
city. Instead, they feed a shadow
4947
04:12:43,760 --> 04:12:48,560
circular economy. Your stolen bike is
4948
04:12:46,399 --> 04:12:51,040
sold to a street dealer and then bought
4949
04:12:48,560 --> 04:12:55,840
by your neighbor. It's a localized,
4950
04:12:51,040 --> 04:12:58,000
untaxed, and illegal closed loop.
4951
04:12:55,840 --> 04:13:00,560
High theft risk creates a market
4952
04:12:58,000 --> 04:13:02,960
distortion. If you expect your bike to
4953
04:13:00,560 --> 04:13:06,800
be stolen within months, you don't buy
4954
04:13:02,960 --> 04:13:09,120
quality, you buy junk. This beta bike
4955
04:13:06,800 --> 04:13:11,760
equilibrium keeps the city's transport
4956
04:13:09,120 --> 04:13:13,680
fleet low quality and forces owners to
4957
04:13:11,760 --> 04:13:15,760
spend more on locks than the bikes
4958
04:13:13,680 --> 04:13:18,479
themselves.
4959
04:13:15,760 --> 04:13:20,880
These aren't victimless crimes. They are
4960
04:13:18,479 --> 04:13:24,800
negative externalities that drain city
4961
04:13:20,880 --> 04:13:27,760
resources. Amsterdam's answer, the Fiat
4962
04:13:24,800 --> 04:13:30,159
depot. Since the city couldn't stop the
4963
04:13:27,760 --> 04:13:33,279
theft, it decided to manage the orphaned
4964
04:13:30,159 --> 04:13:35,840
assets. Because in a circular city, even
4965
04:13:33,279 --> 04:13:37,520
a stolen bike is a resource that must be
4966
04:13:35,840 --> 04:13:40,520
managed to maintain the urban
4967
04:13:37,520 --> 04:13:40,520
metabolism.
4968
04:13:40,880 --> 04:13:45,199
In a city with more bicycles than
4969
04:13:43,040 --> 04:13:46,880
people, orphaned assets are an
4970
04:13:45,199 --> 04:13:48,800
inevitability.
4971
04:13:46,880 --> 04:13:51,840
Every year, thousands of bikes are
4972
04:13:48,800 --> 04:13:54,479
simply left behind. In economic terms,
4973
04:13:51,840 --> 04:13:57,199
this is dead capital. They occupy
4974
04:13:54,479 --> 04:13:59,120
valuable public space, provide zero
4975
04:13:57,199 --> 04:14:00,720
utility, and degrade the urban
4976
04:13:59,120 --> 04:14:02,560
landscape.
4977
04:14:00,720 --> 04:14:05,040
According to official Amsterdam
4978
04:14:02,560 --> 04:14:07,520
regulations, the city must intervene
4979
04:14:05,040 --> 04:14:09,680
when private property interferes with
4980
04:14:07,520 --> 04:14:12,239
public efficiency.
4981
04:14:09,680 --> 04:14:15,199
Whether is an improperly parked bike
4982
04:14:12,239 --> 04:14:17,279
blocking an emergency exit or a wreck
4983
04:14:15,199 --> 04:14:19,520
that is no longer functional, the
4984
04:14:17,279 --> 04:14:23,359
municipality acts as the ultimate
4985
04:14:19,520 --> 04:14:26,159
enforcer of spatial order.
4986
04:14:23,359 --> 04:14:29,760
All seized bicycles are transported to a
4987
04:14:26,159 --> 04:14:32,000
central facility, the Fiat's depot. This
4988
04:14:29,760 --> 04:14:35,120
is a logistical powerhouse that manages
4989
04:14:32,000 --> 04:14:38,000
the city's lost capital. This isn't just
4990
04:14:35,120 --> 04:14:41,600
a pound. It's a sorting facility for the
4991
04:14:38,000 --> 04:14:43,600
city's metal metabolism, the retrieval.
4992
04:14:41,600 --> 04:14:47,760
Owners have around 6 weeks to claim
4993
04:14:43,600 --> 04:14:49,680
their bike for a fee, approximately €25.
4994
04:14:47,760 --> 04:14:52,080
This fee doesn't cover the full
4995
04:14:49,680 --> 04:14:55,359
operational cost, but it serves as a
4996
04:14:52,080 --> 04:14:57,760
user pays tax to discourage abandonment.
4997
04:14:55,359 --> 04:15:00,159
If your bicycle was removed from a city
4998
04:14:57,760 --> 04:15:02,239
parking facility, you will also pay
4999
04:15:00,159 --> 04:15:06,720
€33.75
5000
04:15:02,239 --> 04:15:09,920
parking cost. The sorting only about 25%
5001
04:15:06,720 --> 04:15:12,800
of bikes are ever reclaimed. The rest
5002
04:15:09,920 --> 04:15:14,880
they are classified as waste or asset.
5003
04:15:12,800 --> 04:15:19,600
Here is where the circular economy
5004
04:15:14,880 --> 04:15:22,399
strategy 2020 to 2025 becomes tangible.
5005
04:15:19,600 --> 04:15:27,359
Amsterdam aims to reduce the use of new
5006
04:15:22,399 --> 04:15:30,720
raw materials by 50% by 2030. The Fiat's
5007
04:15:27,359 --> 04:15:32,239
depot doesn't just scrap everything.
5008
04:15:30,720 --> 04:15:34,479
Refurbishment.
5009
04:15:32,239 --> 04:15:37,279
Bikes in decent condition are sold to
5010
04:15:34,479 --> 04:15:39,760
social enterprises or secondhand shops.
5011
04:15:37,279 --> 04:15:41,840
They are recirculated into the economy
5012
04:15:39,760 --> 04:15:44,159
at a low price point, providing
5013
04:15:41,840 --> 04:15:45,920
affordable mobility for lowincome
5014
04:15:44,159 --> 04:15:47,520
residents.
5015
04:15:45,920 --> 04:15:49,920
Education.
5016
04:15:47,520 --> 04:15:52,560
Many are used in vocational training
5017
04:15:49,920 --> 04:15:55,279
programs, turning junk, into a teaching
5018
04:15:52,560 --> 04:15:58,239
tool for future mechanics. Raw
5019
04:15:55,279 --> 04:16:01,120
materials, the unsalvageable ones, are
5020
04:15:58,239 --> 04:16:04,319
sold as highquality scrap metal, feeding
5021
04:16:01,120 --> 04:16:06,239
back into the industrial cycle.
5022
04:16:04,319 --> 04:16:09,680
What we see here is a complete life
5023
04:16:06,239 --> 04:16:11,520
cycle management of a transport mode.
5024
04:16:09,680 --> 04:16:13,520
The biggest challenge for circular
5025
04:16:11,520 --> 04:16:16,159
cities is the lack of effective
5026
04:16:13,520 --> 04:16:18,319
governance mechanisms. Amsterdam
5027
04:16:16,159 --> 04:16:20,880
succeeds because it treats the bicycle
5028
04:16:18,319 --> 04:16:23,279
as a public utility. From the
5029
04:16:20,880 --> 04:16:25,840
multi-million euro investment under the
5030
04:16:23,279 --> 04:16:27,680
water to the scrap metal in the harbor,
5031
04:16:25,840 --> 04:16:32,359
the city manages the entire
5032
04:16:27,680 --> 04:16:32,359
cradletograve cycle of the bicycle.
5033
04:16:34,239 --> 04:16:38,800
Amsterdam is no longer just building
5034
04:16:36,399 --> 04:16:42,399
bike lanes. It is building a new
5035
04:16:38,800 --> 04:16:45,680
economic DNA. The city has set a target
5036
04:16:42,399 --> 04:16:51,080
that many economists call impossible to
5037
04:16:45,680 --> 04:16:51,080
be 100% circular by 2050.
5038
04:16:51,920 --> 04:16:57,520
This means that by midentury, every gram
5039
04:16:54,720 --> 04:17:00,080
of steel in a bicycle and every stone in
5040
04:16:57,520 --> 04:17:01,359
a bridge must stay within the economic
5041
04:17:00,080 --> 04:17:04,159
loop.
5042
04:17:01,359 --> 04:17:07,359
The take, make, waste model will be
5043
04:17:04,159 --> 04:17:10,159
extinct. For Amsterdam, the bicycle is
5044
04:17:07,359 --> 04:17:13,199
the alpha product. The test case for how
5045
04:17:10,159 --> 04:17:16,479
a city can move, consume, and recycle
5046
04:17:13,199 --> 04:17:19,680
without depleting the planet's capital.
5047
04:17:16,479 --> 04:17:21,920
To reach 100% circularity, the concept
5048
04:17:19,680 --> 04:17:25,199
of private ownership is being challenged
5049
04:17:21,920 --> 04:17:27,840
by a more efficient model, product as a
5050
04:17:25,199 --> 04:17:29,920
service. You don't buy the bike, you
5051
04:17:27,840 --> 04:17:31,760
rent the mobility.
5052
04:17:29,920 --> 04:17:33,359
So we talk a lot about ownership as a
5053
04:17:31,760 --> 04:17:36,399
service, but it's this idea of, you
5054
04:17:33,359 --> 04:17:38,800
know, something as a service. So in our
5055
04:17:36,399 --> 04:17:40,800
case, bike as a service. It's all of the
5056
04:17:38,800 --> 04:17:42,479
benefits of ownership, but none of the
5057
04:17:40,800 --> 04:17:44,479
drawbacks. So none of having to deal
5058
04:17:42,479 --> 04:17:46,080
with the maintenance or or any of the
5059
04:17:44,479 --> 04:17:47,040
things that come with actually owning
5060
04:17:46,080 --> 04:17:49,359
something.
5061
04:17:47,040 --> 04:17:52,319
>> Economically, this aligns the incentives
5062
04:17:49,359 --> 04:17:55,120
of the producer and the consumer. If the
5063
04:17:52,319 --> 04:17:57,840
bike breaks, it's the company's problem,
5064
04:17:55,120 --> 04:17:59,600
not yours. by centralizing all of that
5065
04:17:57,840 --> 04:18:02,399
maintenance obviously we cut cost
5066
04:17:59,600 --> 04:18:05,279
significantly we cut waste significantly
5067
04:18:02,399 --> 04:18:07,120
um but for the individual user um they
5068
04:18:05,279 --> 04:18:08,560
have nothing to worry about you know as
5069
04:18:07,120 --> 04:18:10,000
a subscriber you get all of your
5070
04:18:08,560 --> 04:18:12,000
maintenance so we come and do
5071
04:18:10,000 --> 04:18:13,920
preventative maintenance so first of all
5072
04:18:12,000 --> 04:18:16,080
that obviously reduced the cost um
5073
04:18:13,920 --> 04:18:18,080
overall not so much to the end user but
5074
04:18:16,080 --> 04:18:20,159
the cost of the business um that
5075
04:18:18,080 --> 04:18:23,040
prevents breakdowns and things like that
5076
04:18:20,159 --> 04:18:25,840
but in the end if you think about um the
5077
04:18:23,040 --> 04:18:27,439
cost of time the cost of effort um maybe
5078
04:18:25,840 --> 04:18:29,359
you don't even know how to maintain your
5079
04:18:27,439 --> 04:18:31,120
own bike. Um, having a service that does
5080
04:18:29,359 --> 04:18:32,399
all of that for you is just a a matter
5081
04:18:31,120 --> 04:18:35,040
of convenience.
5082
04:18:32,399 --> 04:18:38,080
>> This forces manufacturers to design for
5083
04:18:35,040 --> 04:18:41,040
durability and modularity, the core
5084
04:18:38,080 --> 04:18:43,279
pillars of this circular economy. When
5085
04:18:41,040 --> 04:18:45,359
the city manages the flow and private
5086
04:18:43,279 --> 04:18:48,319
companies manage the maintenance, the
5087
04:18:45,359 --> 04:18:51,279
shadow economy of theft we saw in act
5088
04:18:48,319 --> 04:18:52,800
three begins to shrink. So, if you
5089
04:18:51,279 --> 04:18:54,319
subscribe to a bike from Clover and your
5090
04:18:52,800 --> 04:18:55,840
bike gets stolen, first of all, we
5091
04:18:54,319 --> 04:18:58,000
actually probably will notice that it
5092
04:18:55,840 --> 04:19:00,479
got stolen, maybe even before you did,
5093
04:18:58,000 --> 04:19:02,560
because we have GPS on all the bikes.
5094
04:19:00,479 --> 04:19:04,640
Um, but if it does get stolen, you use
5095
04:19:02,560 --> 04:19:06,080
our WhatsApp chat. You basically send us
5096
04:19:04,640 --> 04:19:08,640
a message and we come and bring you a
5097
04:19:06,080 --> 04:19:11,120
new bike immediately. Why steal a bike
5098
04:19:08,640 --> 04:19:13,439
that is tracked, branded, and has no
5099
04:19:11,120 --> 04:19:15,840
resale value in a subscription-based
5100
04:19:13,439 --> 04:19:17,600
market?
5101
04:19:15,840 --> 04:19:20,080
So, what is the final return on
5102
04:19:17,600 --> 04:19:23,840
investment? Let's look at the triple
5103
04:19:20,080 --> 04:19:26,239
bottom line. Public health. By avoiding
5104
04:19:23,840 --> 04:19:28,880
11,000 deaths annually through active
5105
04:19:26,239 --> 04:19:32,319
transport, the Dutch economy saves 19
5106
04:19:28,880 --> 04:19:35,760
billion in healthcare costs.
5107
04:19:32,319 --> 04:19:38,399
Urban density. By utilizing underwater
5108
04:19:35,760 --> 04:19:40,640
parking and vertical depots, Amsterdam
5109
04:19:38,399 --> 04:19:42,960
maintains a population density that
5110
04:19:40,640 --> 04:19:46,080
would be impossible with cars, keeping
5111
04:19:42,960 --> 04:19:49,439
real estate productivity at peak levels.
5112
04:19:46,080 --> 04:19:52,000
Resource independence. By reclaiming
5113
04:19:49,439 --> 04:19:54,640
metal from the Fiats depot, the city
5114
04:19:52,000 --> 04:19:57,359
insulates itself from global commodity
5115
04:19:54,640 --> 04:20:00,560
price shocks. This is a sustainable
5116
04:19:57,359 --> 04:20:02,800
urban metabolism. The city isn't just a
5117
04:20:00,560 --> 04:20:05,279
place where people live. It's a living
5118
04:20:02,800 --> 04:20:07,760
organism that processes resources with
5119
04:20:05,279 --> 04:20:10,000
maximum efficiency.
5120
04:20:07,760 --> 04:20:12,399
Amsterdam's success has sent a clear
5121
04:20:10,000 --> 04:20:14,640
message to the rest of the continent.
5122
04:20:12,399 --> 04:20:17,439
Spatial efficiency is the only way
5123
04:20:14,640 --> 04:20:19,920
forward for the modern metropolis.
5124
04:20:17,439 --> 04:20:21,920
Across Europe, the bicycle has moved
5125
04:20:19,920 --> 04:20:24,080
from being a leisure tool to a
5126
04:20:21,920 --> 04:20:26,239
cornerstone of urban recovery and
5127
04:20:24,080 --> 04:20:28,960
economic resilience.
5128
04:20:26,239 --> 04:20:32,000
In Paris, a city once defined by its
5129
04:20:28,960 --> 04:20:34,560
congestion, the plan is investing
5130
04:20:32,000 --> 04:20:38,000
hundreds of millions to become 100%
5131
04:20:34,560 --> 04:20:40,319
cyclable. In Barcelona, the super blocks
5132
04:20:38,000 --> 04:20:44,720
are reclaiming entire intersections from
5133
04:20:40,319 --> 04:20:46,319
cars to create human centric lungs.
5134
04:20:44,720 --> 04:20:49,920
These aren't just environmental
5135
04:20:46,319 --> 04:20:52,319
projects. They are market corrections.
5136
04:20:49,920 --> 04:20:54,880
The cities are betting that a quieter,
5137
04:20:52,319 --> 04:20:57,279
cleaner, and more agile urban center
5138
04:20:54,880 --> 04:21:00,159
will attract more talent, more tourism,
5139
04:20:57,279 --> 04:21:02,720
and higher property values.
5140
04:21:00,159 --> 04:21:05,279
From the cycle superighways of London to
5141
04:21:02,720 --> 04:21:08,319
the industrial hubs of Germany, the
5142
04:21:05,279 --> 04:21:11,600
economic logic is consistent. Replacing
5143
04:21:08,319 --> 04:21:14,000
a 1 and 12 ton vehicle with a 15 kg
5144
04:21:11,600 --> 04:21:16,000
machine reduces the cost of maintenance
5145
04:21:14,000 --> 04:21:18,880
for the city and increases the
5146
04:21:16,000 --> 04:21:20,960
productivity of the citizen.
5147
04:21:18,880 --> 04:21:23,279
But while northern capitals have the
5148
04:21:20,960 --> 04:21:26,080
advantage of decades of infrastructure,
5149
04:21:23,279 --> 04:21:28,080
the real test is happening in the south.
5150
04:21:26,080 --> 04:21:30,319
In the Mediterranean, where the street
5151
04:21:28,080 --> 04:21:32,640
is a social space and the sun is a
5152
04:21:30,319 --> 04:21:35,279
constant resource, a new leader is
5153
04:21:32,640 --> 04:21:37,760
emerging. A city that has used the
5154
04:21:35,279 --> 04:21:41,560
Amsterdam blueprint to transform itself
5155
04:21:37,760 --> 04:21:41,560
at record speed.
5156
04:21:47,520 --> 04:21:50,520
Fore
5157
04:22:08,399 --> 04:22:11,399
speech.
5158
04:22:44,720 --> 04:22:50,760
If Amsterdam is the blueprint, Valencia
5159
04:22:47,279 --> 04:22:50,760
is the laboratory.
5160
04:22:51,840 --> 04:22:54,840
Okay.
5161
04:23:12,880 --> 04:23:16,120
I could just
5162
04:23:31,520 --> 04:23:33,760
start
5163
04:23:34,479 --> 04:23:38,640
In less than a decade, this
5164
04:23:36,159 --> 04:23:41,120
Mediterranean city has transitioned from
5165
04:23:38,640 --> 04:23:45,239
a carcentric capital to a global
5166
04:23:41,120 --> 04:23:45,239
reference in urban metabolism.
5167
04:24:06,880 --> 04:24:12,479
Valencia's transformation wasn't a
5168
04:24:09,199 --> 04:24:14,640
matter of vibes or romanticism. It was a
5169
04:24:12,479 --> 04:24:16,239
calculated investment in spatial
5170
04:24:14,640 --> 04:24:18,399
efficiency.
5171
04:24:16,239 --> 04:24:20,000
>> I think attracting top global talent
5172
04:24:18,399 --> 04:24:21,840
means that you need to have a vibrant,
5173
04:24:20,000 --> 04:24:23,920
livable city. And I think most young
5174
04:24:21,840 --> 04:24:26,000
people um particularly who are coming
5175
04:24:23,920 --> 04:24:28,159
into the workforce now are looking for
5176
04:24:26,000 --> 04:24:30,640
ways to get around a city that doesn't
5177
04:24:28,159 --> 04:24:33,199
rely on public transit. They don't want
5178
04:24:30,640 --> 04:24:35,120
to own a car um because car ownership is
5179
04:24:33,199 --> 04:24:37,439
a total burden. Having to find parking,
5180
04:24:35,120 --> 04:24:38,960
insurance, cost of the car, all of that.
5181
04:24:37,439 --> 04:24:41,199
So having this accessible
5182
04:24:38,960 --> 04:24:43,600
infrastructure, cycling infrastructure
5183
04:24:41,199 --> 04:24:45,279
specifically and in a city like Valencia
5184
04:24:43,600 --> 04:24:47,439
that you know already has a lot of
5185
04:24:45,279 --> 04:24:50,239
reasons to attract top talent just makes
5186
04:24:47,439 --> 04:24:51,920
it that much better. Um, cycling is a
5187
04:24:50,239 --> 04:24:53,279
preferred way to get around in Valencia.
5188
04:24:51,920 --> 04:24:55,439
We're number seven in the world for
5189
04:24:53,279 --> 04:24:57,920
cycling to work, for example. So, adding
5190
04:24:55,439 --> 04:25:00,319
a layer of an easy subscription ebike
5191
04:24:57,920 --> 04:25:03,359
service to that just again attracts even
5192
04:25:00,319 --> 04:25:06,399
more um top talent to the city.
5193
04:25:03,359 --> 04:25:08,479
>> By implementing the Anilo Crista, the
5194
04:25:06,399 --> 04:25:11,279
city has reclaimed high value public
5195
04:25:08,479 --> 04:25:13,760
space to boost local commerce and reduce
5196
04:25:11,279 --> 04:25:15,760
the toxic liability of the car. It's
5197
04:25:13,760 --> 04:25:17,520
important to remember that um often
5198
04:25:15,760 --> 04:25:19,199
times with cars, although they can fit
5199
04:25:17,520 --> 04:25:21,199
multiple people, most of the time it's
5200
04:25:19,199 --> 04:25:22,880
one person per one car. So when we're
5201
04:25:21,199 --> 04:25:24,880
asking about, you know, 10 bikes versus
5202
04:25:22,880 --> 04:25:27,120
one car, we're essentially saying 10
5203
04:25:24,880 --> 04:25:28,880
people versus one person. So we have a
5204
04:25:27,120 --> 04:25:30,319
10x multiplier on essentially everything
5205
04:25:28,880 --> 04:25:31,760
that's happening on that street, whether
5206
04:25:30,319 --> 04:25:33,520
that be visits to businesses, whether
5207
04:25:31,760 --> 04:25:35,040
that be transactions and purchases.
5208
04:25:33,520 --> 04:25:36,880
Everything gets that 10x multiplier and
5209
04:25:35,040 --> 04:25:39,359
increases revenue for the whole street.
5210
04:25:36,880 --> 04:25:41,760
In economics, this is the optimization
5211
04:25:39,359 --> 04:25:43,920
of land use. the same principle that
5212
04:25:41,760 --> 04:25:44,800
drove Amsterdam to build under its
5213
04:25:43,920 --> 04:25:46,640
canals.
5214
04:25:44,800 --> 04:25:49,439
>> If I'm cycling and I pass by, for
5215
04:25:46,640 --> 04:25:50,960
example, a bakery, I go, I smell that
5216
04:25:49,439 --> 04:25:52,479
bakery, I go, "Oh, you know what? Maybe
5217
04:25:50,960 --> 04:25:54,399
I'm going to stop in try something one
5218
04:25:52,479 --> 04:25:55,439
of those products." Um, you know,
5219
04:25:54,399 --> 04:25:56,800
essentially become a patron of that
5220
04:25:55,439 --> 04:25:58,080
business. Whereas, if I'm passing by in
5221
04:25:56,800 --> 04:26:00,640
a car, there's no chance of that
5222
04:25:58,080 --> 04:26:02,399
happening. And the other benefit is um
5223
04:26:00,640 --> 04:26:04,239
car parking also has this sort of
5224
04:26:02,399 --> 04:26:05,920
psychological effect on the streets and
5225
04:26:04,239 --> 04:26:07,600
the people that live there. Car parking
5226
04:26:05,920 --> 04:26:09,680
makes the space feel a lot more closed
5227
04:26:07,600 --> 04:26:11,120
in and a lot more cramped than bike
5228
04:26:09,680 --> 04:26:12,319
parking, which keeps the space very nice
5229
04:26:11,120 --> 04:26:14,239
and open.
5230
04:26:12,319 --> 04:26:17,120
>> Emerging businesses are shifting the
5231
04:26:14,239 --> 04:26:19,279
market from ownership to usership.
5232
04:26:17,120 --> 04:26:20,960
>> You know, our customers, they depend on
5233
04:26:19,279 --> 04:26:23,359
their bikes as a reliable way to get
5234
04:26:20,960 --> 04:26:25,840
around and so we use an ownership as a
5235
04:26:23,359 --> 04:26:28,080
service model. So instead of owning the
5236
04:26:25,840 --> 04:26:29,920
asset yourself, um you subscribe to it
5237
04:26:28,080 --> 04:26:31,600
from us and we think that's what
5238
04:26:29,920 --> 04:26:33,520
customers need in terms of reliable
5239
04:26:31,600 --> 04:26:36,159
day-to-day transportation. If you look
5240
04:26:33,520 --> 04:26:38,800
at something like Lime or Valon BC, they
5241
04:26:36,159 --> 04:26:41,199
will have that idle asset problem. Um,
5242
04:26:38,800 --> 04:26:43,040
and certainly ownership obviously the
5243
04:26:41,199 --> 04:26:45,439
same thing. But with us, you know,
5244
04:26:43,040 --> 04:26:47,279
handling maintenance, battery swapping,
5245
04:26:45,439 --> 04:26:49,600
theft protection, insurance, all of
5246
04:26:47,279 --> 04:26:51,439
that. Um, and yet still having access to
5247
04:26:49,600 --> 04:26:52,000
the bike anytime you want. It's your
5248
04:26:51,439 --> 04:26:54,479
bike.
5249
04:26:52,000 --> 04:26:56,800
>> Subscription models like swap fiats,
5250
04:26:54,479 --> 04:26:59,600
which already dominate the Dutch market,
5251
04:26:56,800 --> 04:27:01,920
are landing in Valencia. These companies
5252
04:26:59,600 --> 04:27:03,840
treat the bike as a service, covering
5253
04:27:01,920 --> 04:27:04,960
all maintenance and repairs for a
5254
04:27:03,840 --> 04:27:06,640
monthly fee.
5255
04:27:04,960 --> 04:27:08,720
>> Ownership isn't necessarily a bad
5256
04:27:06,640 --> 04:27:10,479
investment, but I think um most
5257
04:27:08,720 --> 04:27:11,840
consumers are moving away from owning
5258
04:27:10,479 --> 04:27:13,600
things. You know, people are leasing
5259
04:27:11,840 --> 04:27:16,319
their cars, people are, you know, more
5260
04:27:13,600 --> 04:27:18,319
and more renting their homes. Um so for
5261
04:27:16,319 --> 04:27:20,640
us, a subscription model made sense that
5262
04:27:18,319 --> 04:27:22,640
and affordability. This eliminates the
5263
04:27:20,640 --> 04:27:25,600
fear of theft and long-term
5264
04:27:22,640 --> 04:27:27,840
depreciation, turning the bicycle into a
5265
04:27:25,600 --> 04:27:31,120
predictable, low- friction utility for
5266
04:27:27,840 --> 04:27:34,080
the modern worker. The impact extends to
5267
04:27:31,120 --> 04:27:36,000
logistics. In Valencia's historic
5268
04:27:34,080 --> 04:27:38,399
center, where large trucks are
5269
04:27:36,000 --> 04:27:40,960
increasingly restricted, last mile
5270
04:27:38,399 --> 04:27:43,359
delivery by cargo bike is becoming the
5271
04:27:40,960 --> 04:27:46,399
gold standard for efficiency. We are
5272
04:27:43,359 --> 04:27:48,640
witnessing the birth of microhubs, small
5273
04:27:46,399 --> 04:27:51,279
urban distribution centers that allow
5274
04:27:48,640 --> 04:27:54,159
for zero emission high-speed delivery in
5275
04:27:51,279 --> 04:27:56,479
highdensity zones. From the massive
5276
04:27:54,159 --> 04:27:58,479
underwater investments in Amsterdam to
5277
04:27:56,479 --> 04:28:01,680
the emerging subscription models in
5278
04:27:58,479 --> 04:28:04,640
Valencia, the message is clear. The
5279
04:28:01,680 --> 04:28:07,199
bicycle is no longer just a hobby. It is
5280
04:28:04,640 --> 04:28:09,040
a financial instrument and a spatial
5281
04:28:07,199 --> 04:28:10,159
optimizer.
5282
04:28:09,040 --> 04:28:12,560
You know, when we were speaking to
5283
04:28:10,159 --> 04:28:14,880
consumers about how we could get them to
5284
04:28:12,560 --> 04:28:16,800
switch from a car to an ebike, it was
5285
04:28:14,880 --> 04:28:18,960
all about convenience. So, it was about
5286
04:28:16,800 --> 04:28:20,960
this idea that, you know, with a car,
5287
04:28:18,960 --> 04:28:22,720
you can go point A to point B whenever
5288
04:28:20,960 --> 04:28:24,800
you want. You're not relying on public
5289
04:28:22,720 --> 04:28:26,880
transit or any of those things. But if
5290
04:28:24,800 --> 04:28:28,560
you need gas, you go to a gas station,
5291
04:28:26,880 --> 04:28:30,880
it takes 5 minutes, and you're back on
5292
04:28:28,560 --> 04:28:32,720
your way. People perceived ebikes as
5293
04:28:30,880 --> 04:28:34,239
inconvenient because, oh, what if I
5294
04:28:32,720 --> 04:28:36,319
forget to charge the battery? Then it's
5295
04:28:34,239 --> 04:28:38,560
just kind of a very heavy paper weight.
5296
04:28:36,319 --> 04:28:40,159
Um, but if we eliminate that need for
5297
04:28:38,560 --> 04:28:42,640
charging and people can just come and
5298
04:28:40,159 --> 04:28:44,720
collect a charge battery anytime, um, it
5299
04:28:42,640 --> 04:28:47,439
helps break that barrier to entry for
5300
04:28:44,720 --> 04:28:49,520
getting out of a car. By integrating
5301
04:28:47,439 --> 04:28:52,080
these new business models with public
5302
04:28:49,520 --> 04:28:55,040
planning, Valencia is securing its place
5303
04:28:52,080 --> 04:28:57,760
in the 21st century economy. Proving
5304
04:28:55,040 --> 04:29:01,199
that a dense functional city isn't just
5305
04:28:57,760 --> 04:29:03,040
a choice, it's a competitive necessity.
5306
04:29:01,199 --> 04:29:05,040
>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
5307
04:29:03,040 --> 04:29:06,640
going to become obsolete. Cities are
5308
04:29:05,040 --> 04:29:08,319
building for pedestrians. They're
5309
04:29:06,640 --> 04:29:10,880
building for cycling. They're building
5310
04:29:08,319 --> 04:29:12,880
for livability, not for cars.
5311
04:29:10,880 --> 04:29:14,960
>> Throughout this documentary, we have
5312
04:29:12,880 --> 04:29:18,080
seen the gears of a massive economic
5313
04:29:14,960 --> 04:29:20,960
machine. But there is a final myth we
5314
04:29:18,080 --> 04:29:23,359
must dismantle. The idea that cities
5315
04:29:20,960 --> 04:29:25,840
like Amsterdam or Valencia look like
5316
04:29:23,359 --> 04:29:28,399
this because their citizens are simply
5317
04:29:25,840 --> 04:29:32,159
different. History tells a different
5318
04:29:28,399 --> 04:29:34,080
story. In the 1970s, Amsterdam was on
5319
04:29:32,159 --> 04:29:36,720
the verge of becoming another car
5320
04:29:34,080 --> 04:29:39,279
ccentric congested metropolis.
5321
04:29:36,720 --> 04:29:42,000
The transition we see today wasn't a
5322
04:29:39,279 --> 04:29:44,640
natural evolution of culture. It was a
5323
04:29:42,000 --> 04:29:47,439
hostile takeover of urban space by a
5324
04:29:44,640 --> 04:29:50,239
policy and planning. When a city reaches
5325
04:29:47,439 --> 04:29:52,319
a certain density, freedom of choice in
5326
04:29:50,239 --> 04:29:55,120
transport becomes a mathematical
5327
04:29:52,319 --> 04:29:58,479
impossibility. If everyone chooses a
5328
04:29:55,120 --> 04:30:01,439
car, no one moves. In this high stakes
5329
04:29:58,479 --> 04:30:04,159
environment, planning is not an option.
5330
04:30:01,439 --> 04:30:07,040
It is the only way to survive. What is
5331
04:30:04,159 --> 04:30:10,239
the ultimate harvest of this planning?
5332
04:30:07,040 --> 04:30:12,720
It is the 3% GDP boost we mentioned at
5333
04:30:10,239 --> 04:30:14,319
the start. But it's also found in the
5334
04:30:12,720 --> 04:30:17,520
margins,
5335
04:30:14,319 --> 04:30:19,359
the fiscal savings by avoiding the need
5336
04:30:17,520 --> 04:30:21,840
for multi-billion euro highway
5337
04:30:19,359 --> 04:30:24,800
expansions and massive health care costs
5338
04:30:21,840 --> 04:30:27,840
related to sedentary lifestyles.
5339
04:30:24,800 --> 04:30:30,080
The resilience factor by creating a
5340
04:30:27,840 --> 04:30:32,960
circular metropolis that can process its
5341
04:30:30,080 --> 04:30:34,960
own waste at the Kruu depot and turn it
5342
04:30:32,960 --> 04:30:38,080
back into capital.
5343
04:30:34,960 --> 04:30:40,239
The talent magnet in the global war for
5344
04:30:38,080 --> 04:30:43,520
talent. Highly skilled workers choose
5345
04:30:40,239 --> 04:30:45,760
cities based on livability. Amsterdam's
5346
04:30:43,520 --> 04:30:48,399
bicycle infrastructure is its most
5347
04:30:45,760 --> 04:30:50,239
effective recruitment tool. We started
5348
04:30:48,399 --> 04:30:53,520
this journey looking at a simple
5349
04:30:50,239 --> 04:30:56,080
machine, two wheels and a frame. But as
5350
04:30:53,520 --> 04:30:59,040
we've seen, the bicycle in Amsterdam is
5351
04:30:56,080 --> 04:31:01,680
much more than a transport mode. It is a
5352
04:30:59,040 --> 04:31:04,640
financial instrument. It is a spatial
5353
04:31:01,680 --> 04:31:07,520
optimizer. It is the invisible engine
5354
04:31:04,640 --> 04:31:11,520
that allows a medieval city to function
5355
04:31:07,520 --> 04:31:14,479
as a 21st century economic powerhouse.
5356
04:31:11,520 --> 04:31:16,960
The €85 million spent on underwater
5357
04:31:14,479 --> 04:31:20,000
tunnels, the complex logistics of the
5358
04:31:16,960 --> 04:31:23,199
Kruquest Depo, or the new Mediterranean
5359
04:31:20,000 --> 04:31:26,479
bike lanes are not costs. They are
5360
04:31:23,199 --> 04:31:28,960
investments in resilience.
5361
04:31:26,479 --> 04:31:31,199
In a world of rising energy prices and
5362
04:31:28,960 --> 04:31:34,239
shrinking urban space, the Amsterdam
5363
04:31:31,199 --> 04:31:36,399
model offers a glimpse into the future.
5364
04:31:34,239 --> 04:31:39,120
It proves that the most sophisticated
5365
04:31:36,399 --> 04:31:41,840
technology isn't always a new gadget.
5366
04:31:39,120 --> 04:31:45,199
Sometimes it's the perfect integration
5367
04:31:41,840 --> 04:31:48,199
of an old idea into a new circular
5368
04:31:45,199 --> 04:31:48,199
world.
5369
04:32:48,640 --> 04:32:51,640
Imagine
5370
04:33:04,080 --> 04:33:07,840
for a moment, what if your Bitcoin
5371
04:33:06,080 --> 04:33:09,920
holdings could purchase more than just
5372
04:33:07,840 --> 04:33:12,480
everyday items like coffee or the latest
5373
04:33:09,920 --> 04:33:14,320
gadgets? What if that digital currency
5374
04:33:12,480 --> 04:33:16,799
sitting in your wallet could actually
5375
04:33:14,320 --> 04:33:21,561
buy you a house or perhaps even an
5376
04:33:16,799 --> 04:33:21,561
entire commercial building? real estate.
5377
04:33:31,199 --> 04:33:35,279
Welcome to the fascinating and rapidly
5378
04:33:33,199 --> 04:33:37,039
evolving world of crypto real estate
5379
04:33:35,279 --> 04:33:41,639
where digital assets are being
5380
04:33:37,039 --> 04:33:41,639
transformed into tangible property.
5381
04:33:45,520 --> 04:33:48,719
Today, we're taking a deep dive into the
5382
04:33:47,520 --> 04:33:50,719
revolutionary intersection of
5383
04:33:48,719 --> 04:33:53,199
cryptocurrency and property ownership,
5384
04:33:50,719 --> 04:33:55,520
examining in detail how Bitcoin is
5385
04:33:53,199 --> 04:33:57,439
successfully transforming what were once
5386
04:33:55,520 --> 04:33:59,600
purely digital coins into tangible
5387
04:33:57,439 --> 04:34:01,119
physical real estate investments.
5388
04:33:59,600 --> 04:34:03,119
Whether you're an experienced crypto
5389
04:34:01,119 --> 04:34:05,039
investor looking to diversify your
5390
04:34:03,119 --> 04:34:06,719
portfolio or simply someone who's
5391
04:34:05,039 --> 04:34:08,959
curious about emerging trends in
5392
04:34:06,719 --> 04:34:10,799
property markets, this is an in-depth
5393
04:34:08,959 --> 04:34:12,400
look at how the landscape and future of
5394
04:34:10,799 --> 04:34:14,561
real estate transactions is
5395
04:34:12,400 --> 04:34:17,119
fundamentally evolving and changing
5396
04:34:14,561 --> 04:34:19,199
before our eyes.
5397
04:34:17,119 --> 04:34:21,119
The financial world is in constant
5398
04:34:19,199 --> 04:34:23,119
transformation, but in this decade,
5399
04:34:21,119 --> 04:34:26,561
digitalization has accelerated that
5400
04:34:23,119 --> 04:34:29,439
change faster than anyone imagined.
5401
04:34:26,561 --> 04:34:31,600
Today, money, investments, and assets
5402
04:34:29,439 --> 04:34:34,320
flow through codes silent, transparent,
5403
04:34:31,600 --> 04:34:37,119
and borderless. Cryptocurrencies led by
5404
04:34:34,320 --> 04:34:39,039
Bitcoin mark the beginning of a new era.
5405
04:34:37,119 --> 04:34:40,799
They shook the foundations of the global
5406
04:34:39,039 --> 04:34:43,600
financial system, sparking both
5407
04:34:40,799 --> 04:34:46,320
excitement and skepticism. Yet, behind
5408
04:34:43,600 --> 04:34:50,520
that phenomenon emerged something even
5409
04:34:46,320 --> 04:34:50,520
deeper. Tokenization.
5410
04:34:52,639 --> 04:34:55,639
Contraos,
5411
04:35:11,520 --> 04:35:15,080
real world assets.
5412
04:35:35,199 --> 04:35:37,279
Moment.
5413
04:35:47,439 --> 04:35:51,439
tokenization brings. So it's the most
5414
04:35:48,879 --> 04:35:53,039
suitable, most modern ledger technology
5415
04:35:51,439 --> 04:35:53,680
uh ideal for modernizing capital
5416
04:35:53,039 --> 04:35:56,959
markets.
5417
04:35:53,680 --> 04:35:58,959
>> The idea is simple, the impact enormous.
5418
04:35:56,959 --> 04:36:01,600
Each token represents a fraction of an
5419
04:35:58,959 --> 04:36:03,520
asset, a share, a bond, a property, or
5420
04:36:01,600 --> 04:36:05,680
even a work of art. All recorded on a
5421
04:36:03,520 --> 04:36:08,680
blockchain, a global tamper proof
5422
04:36:05,680 --> 04:36:08,680
ledger.
5423
04:36:25,840 --> 04:36:29,240
Smart contracts.
5424
04:36:43,520 --> 04:36:47,439
We believe the next step going forward
5425
04:36:45,359 --> 04:36:51,119
will be the tokenization of financial
5426
04:36:47,439 --> 04:36:53,359
assets. And that means every stock,
5427
04:36:51,119 --> 04:36:56,160
every bond will have its own basically
5428
04:36:53,359 --> 04:36:58,639
QIP. It'll be on one general ledger.
5429
04:36:56,160 --> 04:37:01,119
>> In other words, a token isn't just an
5430
04:36:58,639 --> 04:37:03,520
asset. It's a digital entry in a new
5431
04:37:01,119 --> 04:37:05,840
kind of ledger that is rewriting how
5432
04:37:03,520 --> 04:37:08,080
capital markets keep their books.
5433
04:37:05,840 --> 04:37:09,600
Investment in tokenized real estates
5434
04:37:08,080 --> 04:37:11,840
represents one of the most recent
5435
04:37:09,600 --> 04:37:14,080
advancements in the property industry.
5436
04:37:11,840 --> 04:37:16,561
Tokenization enables houses and
5437
04:37:14,080 --> 04:37:20,600
apartments to be divided and sold and
5438
04:37:16,561 --> 04:37:20,600
numerous smaller units.
5439
04:37:29,760 --> 04:37:32,000
Fraction.
5440
04:37:41,760 --> 04:37:45,639
Fraction.
5441
04:37:42,639 --> 04:37:45,639
different.
5442
04:38:06,959 --> 04:38:11,279
Small programs act like a bridge between
5443
04:38:08,799 --> 04:38:13,119
a property and online trading platform.
5444
04:38:11,279 --> 04:38:14,561
Hence tokens create a digital
5445
04:38:13,119 --> 04:38:18,920
representation of a property
5446
04:38:14,561 --> 04:38:18,920
facilitating its digital transfer.
5447
04:38:20,400 --> 04:38:24,240
The process of purchasing a property is
5448
04:38:22,561 --> 04:38:26,719
still associated with significant
5449
04:38:24,240 --> 04:38:29,119
bureaucracy, lengthy procedures and
5450
04:38:26,719 --> 04:38:32,480
subsequent high costs.
5451
04:38:29,119 --> 04:38:34,879
So what exactly is crypto real estate?
5452
04:38:32,480 --> 04:38:37,119
At its core, the term refers to any real
5453
04:38:34,879 --> 04:38:40,000
estate transaction where cryptocurrency
5454
04:38:37,119 --> 04:38:42,480
plays a major role, either as a direct
5455
04:38:40,000 --> 04:38:46,760
form of payment, a converted asset, or
5456
04:38:42,480 --> 04:38:46,760
collateral for purchasing property.
5457
04:38:54,240 --> 04:38:57,240
Bitcoins
5458
04:39:14,160 --> 04:39:18,359
Crypto reference loans.
5459
04:39:38,000 --> 04:39:42,958
But the concept goes even deeper than
5460
04:39:40,718 --> 04:39:44,878
that. Crypto real estate includes buying
5461
04:39:42,958 --> 04:39:46,958
a home directly with Bitcoin or other
5462
04:39:44,878 --> 04:39:50,080
cryptocurrencies, using stable coins
5463
04:39:46,958 --> 04:39:53,040
like USDT or USDC for a more stable
5464
04:39:50,080 --> 04:39:54,958
purchase, converting crypto into fiat at
5465
04:39:53,040 --> 04:39:56,400
closing, taking out loans backed by
5466
04:39:54,958 --> 04:39:58,160
cryptocurrency to purchase real
5467
04:39:56,400 --> 04:40:00,080
property, tokenized real estate where
5468
04:39:58,160 --> 04:40:01,760
ownership is fractionalized into digital
5469
04:40:00,080 --> 04:40:03,440
token, blockchain based property
5470
04:40:01,760 --> 04:40:06,440
records, and smart contract driven
5471
04:40:03,440 --> 04:40:06,440
transactions.
5472
04:40:18,560 --> 04:40:21,958
Stable coins.
5473
04:40:35,200 --> 04:40:38,600
Stable coins.
5474
04:40:47,360 --> 04:40:52,760
EMT. E A R Tther
5475
04:41:00,958 --> 04:41:05,080
U USDT
5476
04:41:08,878 --> 04:41:11,878
USDC
5477
04:41:24,320 --> 04:41:27,320
US
5478
04:41:31,680 --> 04:41:35,160
stable coinry.
5479
04:41:55,920 --> 04:41:58,920
for
5480
04:42:17,920 --> 04:42:21,320
stable coins.
5481
04:42:27,360 --> 04:42:31,760
It's an evolution in how value moves
5482
04:42:29,600 --> 04:42:33,920
around the world. And for the first
5483
04:42:31,760 --> 04:42:38,080
time, digital wealth is becoming a
5484
04:42:33,920 --> 04:42:38,080
direct pathway to physical ownership.
5485
04:42:39,920 --> 04:42:43,680
To understand how we arrived at this
5486
04:42:41,920 --> 04:42:46,320
moment, we need to step back and look at
5487
04:42:43,680 --> 04:42:48,400
the timeline. Bitcoin launched in 2009
5488
04:42:46,320 --> 04:42:50,240
as a peer-to-peer digital alternative to
5489
04:42:48,400 --> 04:42:52,080
money. In its early years, the idea of
5490
04:42:50,240 --> 04:42:54,400
using Bitcoin to buy real estate was
5491
04:42:52,080 --> 04:42:56,718
laughable. But Bitcoin grew, first
5492
04:42:54,400 --> 04:42:59,200
crossing $1, then a 100, then a
5493
04:42:56,718 --> 04:43:01,840
thousand, then tens of thousands. A new
5494
04:42:59,200 --> 04:43:03,840
wave of wealth was created. Suddenly,
5495
04:43:01,840 --> 04:43:06,000
early adopters who once bought pizza
5496
04:43:03,840 --> 04:43:08,958
with Bitcoin now had enough digital
5497
04:43:06,000 --> 04:43:11,360
value to buy entire homes, and sellers
5498
04:43:08,958 --> 04:43:13,360
began paying attention. The first public
5499
04:43:11,360 --> 04:43:16,560
record of a property purchased fully in
5500
04:43:13,360 --> 04:43:18,718
Bitcoin dates back to 2017. From there,
5501
04:43:16,560 --> 04:43:21,280
the trend spread to luxury markets.
5502
04:43:18,718 --> 04:43:23,600
Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Dubai, and
5503
04:43:21,280 --> 04:43:25,440
London. Developers began marketing
5504
04:43:23,600 --> 04:43:28,160
properties specifically to crypto
5505
04:43:25,440 --> 04:43:31,040
buyers. Brokers started specializing in
5506
04:43:28,160 --> 04:43:32,560
crypto transactions. Escrow companies
5507
04:43:31,040 --> 04:43:34,400
adapted.
5508
04:43:32,560 --> 04:43:37,760
Even governments began studying
5509
04:43:34,400 --> 04:43:40,240
blockchainbased property registries.
5510
04:43:37,760 --> 04:43:42,718
Buying real estate with Bitcoin isn't
5511
04:43:40,240 --> 04:43:44,638
science fiction. Some sellers now accept
5512
04:43:42,718 --> 04:43:46,638
crypto directly, while others work
5513
04:43:44,638 --> 04:43:49,840
through brokers who convert Bitcoin into
5514
04:43:46,638 --> 04:43:51,920
local currency. The process is faster,
5515
04:43:49,840 --> 04:43:54,240
borderless, and sometimes even tax
5516
04:43:51,920 --> 04:43:56,718
efficient if you know the rules. Things
5517
04:43:54,240 --> 04:44:00,080
that sounded impossible in 2010 became
5518
04:43:56,718 --> 04:44:02,400
normal by 2020. And now in the 2020s,
5519
04:44:00,080 --> 04:44:04,798
cryptocurrency is becoming a serious
5520
04:44:02,400 --> 04:44:06,638
player in global real estate. The crypto
5521
04:44:04,798 --> 04:44:08,958
boom has created a new class of
5522
04:44:06,638 --> 04:44:11,520
investors. High- netw worth individuals
5523
04:44:08,958 --> 04:44:14,160
want to diversify, and real estate is a
5524
04:44:11,520 --> 04:44:16,958
safe, tangible asset. From luxury homes
5525
04:44:14,160 --> 04:44:19,360
in Miami to condos in Dubai, Bitcoin
5526
04:44:16,958 --> 04:44:21,280
buyers are making their mark. Let's look
5527
04:44:19,360 --> 04:44:23,040
at a few real world examples to
5528
04:44:21,280 --> 04:44:26,718
understand how crypto real estate works
5529
04:44:23,040 --> 04:44:29,200
in practice. Case study one. In 2021, a
5530
04:44:26,718 --> 04:44:31,760
luxury penthouse at Artee by Antonio
5531
04:44:29,200 --> 04:44:35,200
Satario in Surfside, Florida made
5532
04:44:31,760 --> 04:44:38,240
history. The property sold for 22.5
5533
04:44:35,200 --> 04:44:40,240
million paid entirely in cryptocurrency.
5534
04:44:38,240 --> 04:44:42,480
The largest publicly known real estate
5535
04:44:40,240 --> 04:44:44,718
transaction completed using digital
5536
04:44:42,480 --> 04:44:46,718
assets at the time. A developer's
5537
04:44:44,718 --> 04:44:49,280
decision to accept cryptocurrency had
5538
04:44:46,718 --> 04:44:51,200
paid off. The sale came just weeks after
5539
04:44:49,280 --> 04:44:53,040
the developer announced it would begin
5540
04:44:51,200 --> 04:44:54,560
accepting cryptocurrency payments
5541
04:44:53,040 --> 04:44:56,400
through a partnership with blockchain
5542
04:44:54,560 --> 04:44:58,240
platform Solid Block. According to
5543
04:44:56,400 --> 04:45:00,560
Forbes, the deal demonstrated that
5544
04:44:58,240 --> 04:45:03,360
crypto was no longer just a speculative
5545
04:45:00,560 --> 04:45:05,840
asset. It had become a viable method for
5546
04:45:03,360 --> 04:45:08,638
purchasing high-end real estate. Hey
5547
04:45:05,840 --> 04:45:10,958
Study 2 in Dubai, one of the earliest
5548
04:45:08,638 --> 04:45:13,360
large-scale experiments with crypto real
5549
04:45:10,958 --> 04:45:15,760
estate unfolded at Aston Plaza and
5550
04:45:13,360 --> 04:45:18,480
residences located in Dubai Science
5551
04:45:15,760 --> 04:45:20,160
Park. Marketed as one of the first major
5552
04:45:18,480 --> 04:45:22,638
developments in the region to accept
5553
04:45:20,160 --> 04:45:25,280
Bitcoin, the project offered apartments
5554
04:45:22,638 --> 04:45:27,360
priced directly in cryptocurrency,
5555
04:45:25,280 --> 04:45:30,080
buyers were able to commit funds using
5556
04:45:27,360 --> 04:45:32,000
Bitcoin, capturing global attention. But
5557
04:45:30,080 --> 04:45:34,878
the story also revealed the risks of
5558
04:45:32,000 --> 04:45:38,400
innovation. Originally advertised as a
5559
04:45:34,878 --> 04:45:40,560
$325 million development, the project
5560
04:45:38,400 --> 04:45:42,958
later stalled and its completion became
5561
04:45:40,560 --> 04:45:45,760
uncertain. While crypto payments were
5562
04:45:42,958 --> 04:45:48,000
accepted, it remains unclear whether all
5563
04:45:45,760 --> 04:45:50,320
buyers ultimately received finished
5564
04:45:48,000 --> 04:45:52,878
properties. The case highlighted both
5565
04:45:50,320 --> 04:45:55,680
the promise and the pitfalls of early
5566
04:45:52,878 --> 04:45:58,958
crypto adoption real estate. Case study
5567
04:45:55,680 --> 04:46:00,958
3. In 2025, Spain recorded one of its
5568
04:45:58,958 --> 04:46:03,520
first officially reported property sales
5569
04:46:00,958 --> 04:46:06,240
completed with Bitcoin. A property in
5570
04:46:03,520 --> 04:46:08,160
Madrid valued at approximately 1.5
5571
04:46:06,240 --> 04:46:10,400
million of euros was purchased by an
5572
04:46:08,160 --> 04:46:12,320
international buyer using Bitcoin. The
5573
04:46:10,400 --> 04:46:15,360
transaction followed standard real
5574
04:46:12,320 --> 04:46:17,680
estate procedures including escrow legal
5575
04:46:15,360 --> 04:46:20,080
compliance and the conversion of crypto
5576
04:46:17,680 --> 04:46:21,840
into euros for the seller. It marked a
5577
04:46:20,080 --> 04:46:23,600
significant milestone showing that
5578
04:46:21,840 --> 04:46:25,920
cryptocurrency could integrate into
5579
04:46:23,600 --> 04:46:28,480
traditional real estate systems even in
5580
04:46:25,920 --> 04:46:31,120
highly regulated European markets. Case
5581
04:46:28,480 --> 04:46:33,680
study four in the United States crypto
5582
04:46:31,120 --> 04:46:36,240
adoption hasn't been limited to coastal
5583
04:46:33,680 --> 04:46:38,638
tech hubs. An agent with Sabis
5584
04:46:36,240 --> 04:46:41,440
International Realy in Delaware reported
5585
04:46:38,638 --> 04:46:44,320
selling a luxury property for $175
5586
04:46:41,440 --> 04:46:46,320
million paid in Bitcoin. Believed to be
5587
04:46:44,320 --> 04:46:48,080
one of the state's first major real
5588
04:46:46,320 --> 04:46:50,320
estate transactions involving
5589
04:46:48,080 --> 04:46:52,320
cryptocurrency, the sale was widely
5590
04:46:50,320 --> 04:46:54,240
publicized as a local milestone,
5591
04:46:52,320 --> 04:46:56,320
signaling that crypto real estate was
5592
04:46:54,240 --> 04:47:01,000
beginning to reach beyond niche markets
5593
04:46:56,320 --> 04:47:01,000
and into everyday property transactions.
5594
04:47:01,680 --> 04:47:05,080
Genius Act.
5595
04:47:17,120 --> 04:47:21,160
different stable coins.
5596
04:47:31,280 --> 04:47:34,280
Evolution
5597
04:47:38,320 --> 04:47:41,320
Motion
5598
04:47:52,400 --> 04:47:54,638
conserv
5599
04:47:59,600 --> 04:48:02,600
Maxertos.
5600
04:48:23,840 --> 04:48:26,840
reallychech.
5601
04:48:52,638 --> 04:48:57,200
Taken together, these cases tell a
5602
04:48:54,560 --> 04:48:59,440
larger story, one of experimentation,
5603
04:48:57,200 --> 04:49:01,760
success, setbacks, and growing
5604
04:48:59,440 --> 04:49:04,000
legitimacy. Crypto real estate is no
5605
04:49:01,760 --> 04:49:06,160
longer hypothetical. It's happening
5606
04:49:04,000 --> 04:49:10,000
transaction by transaction across the
5607
04:49:06,160 --> 04:49:11,840
globe. But it's not all smooth sailing.
5608
04:49:10,000 --> 04:49:14,160
Crypto's value can be volatile.
5609
04:49:11,840 --> 04:49:16,718
Regulations vary by country, and tax
5610
04:49:14,160 --> 04:49:18,958
implications can be tricky. First,
5611
04:49:16,718 --> 04:49:21,200
volatility. Bitcoin and other
5612
04:49:18,958 --> 04:49:22,958
cryptocurrencies can move dramatically,
5613
04:49:21,200 --> 04:49:24,798
sometimes losing or gaining a third of
5614
04:49:22,958 --> 04:49:27,120
their value in weeks. For buyers who
5615
04:49:24,798 --> 04:49:30,560
convert at closing, rapid swings can
5616
04:49:27,120 --> 04:49:33,680
erase gains or spike costs in hours.
5617
04:49:30,560 --> 04:49:35,840
Second, transaction mechanics and title.
5618
04:49:33,680 --> 04:49:37,840
Even when a seller accepts crypto, most
5619
04:49:35,840 --> 04:49:39,280
governments and land registries require
5620
04:49:37,840 --> 04:49:41,680
deeds to be issued in the local
5621
04:49:39,280 --> 04:49:43,920
currency. That usually means an
5622
04:49:41,680 --> 04:49:45,760
intermediary converts crypto to fiat
5623
04:49:43,920 --> 04:49:48,000
before the legal title is registered,
5624
04:49:45,760 --> 04:49:49,680
adding counterparty risk and an extra
5625
04:49:48,000 --> 04:49:52,638
step that can delay and complicate
5626
04:49:49,680 --> 04:49:54,320
settlements. Third, taxes. In many
5627
04:49:52,638 --> 04:49:56,400
jurisdictions, authorities treat crypto
5628
04:49:54,320 --> 04:49:58,320
as property, not currency, which makes
5629
04:49:56,400 --> 04:50:00,638
nearly every transfer a taxable event.
5630
04:49:58,320 --> 04:50:02,718
That includes sales, exchanges, and
5631
04:50:00,638 --> 04:50:04,958
sometimes even payments for goods or
5632
04:50:02,718 --> 04:50:07,280
services. Buyers and sellers must track
5633
04:50:04,958 --> 04:50:09,440
cost basis gains and report the
5634
04:50:07,280 --> 04:50:12,000
transactions accurately or face audits
5635
04:50:09,440 --> 04:50:13,840
and penalties. Fourth, lending and
5636
04:50:12,000 --> 04:50:15,440
counterparty risk. Cryptobacked lending
5637
04:50:13,840 --> 04:50:17,280
exploded in the previous market cycle,
5638
04:50:15,440 --> 04:50:19,520
but it ended with high-profile collapses
5639
04:50:17,280 --> 04:50:21,360
and bankruptcies. When platforms fail,
5640
04:50:19,520 --> 04:50:23,280
borrowers and depositors can lose access
5641
04:50:21,360 --> 04:50:24,958
to funds. Collateral can be liquidated
5642
04:50:23,280 --> 04:50:26,798
at a loss and promise liquidity
5643
04:50:24,958 --> 04:50:28,638
disappears, a danger for anyone relying
5644
04:50:26,798 --> 04:50:31,280
on thirdparty services to bridge crypto
5645
04:50:28,638 --> 04:50:33,200
and property purchases. Fifth,
5646
04:50:31,280 --> 04:50:35,600
compliance and anti-moneyaundering
5647
04:50:33,200 --> 04:50:37,440
rules. Regulators and global bodies have
5648
04:50:35,600 --> 04:50:39,360
tightened rules around virtual assets to
5649
04:50:37,440 --> 04:50:41,120
prevent elicit flows. Real estate
5650
04:50:39,360 --> 04:50:43,440
transactions are high on that list,
5651
04:50:41,120 --> 04:50:45,440
meaning additional KYC, source of fund
5652
04:50:43,440 --> 04:50:47,200
checks, and reporting requirements.
5653
04:50:45,440 --> 04:50:49,600
Failure to meet these standards can
5654
04:50:47,200 --> 04:50:52,400
stall a sale, trigger investigations, or
5655
04:50:49,600 --> 04:50:55,040
expose participants to legal liability.
5656
04:50:52,400 --> 04:50:57,360
Sixth, operational and technical risk.
5657
04:50:55,040 --> 04:50:58,798
Crypto transactions are irreversible. A
5658
04:50:57,360 --> 04:51:00,560
single wrong character in a wallet
5659
04:50:58,798 --> 04:51:02,160
address or a fishing attack on an email
5660
04:51:00,560 --> 04:51:03,760
with wiring instructions can send
5661
04:51:02,160 --> 04:51:05,600
millions to the wrong place and there's
5662
04:51:03,760 --> 04:51:07,520
no bank to reverse the transfer.
5663
04:51:05,600 --> 04:51:09,360
Seventh, technology risk, smart
5664
04:51:07,520 --> 04:51:11,120
contracts, tokenization, and new
5665
04:51:09,360 --> 04:51:13,200
platforms bring innovation, but also
5666
04:51:11,120 --> 04:51:15,200
software bugs and design flaws. A poorly
5667
04:51:13,200 --> 04:51:17,520
written smart contract or an unodudited
5668
04:51:15,200 --> 04:51:19,760
tokenization platform can freeze assets,
5669
04:51:17,520 --> 04:51:22,480
misallocate ownership shares, or enable
5670
04:51:19,760 --> 04:51:24,240
exploits. Finally, market and
5671
04:51:22,480 --> 04:51:25,840
reputational risk. Developers and
5672
04:51:24,240 --> 04:51:27,440
brokers who accept crypto can attract
5673
04:51:25,840 --> 04:51:29,280
new buyers, but they also take on
5674
04:51:27,440 --> 04:51:30,958
greater scrutiny, regulatory compliance
5675
04:51:29,280 --> 04:51:32,638
burdens, and the risk that projects
5676
04:51:30,958 --> 04:51:34,798
promoted with crypto funding may
5677
04:51:32,638 --> 04:51:37,600
underdel, stall, or become entangled in
5678
04:51:34,798 --> 04:51:39,920
legal disputes. In short, crypto can
5679
04:51:37,600 --> 04:51:42,560
speed and globalized property deals. But
5680
04:51:39,920 --> 04:51:45,200
it also layers on volatility, regulatory
5681
04:51:42,560 --> 04:51:47,280
complexity, and new failure modes. For
5682
04:51:45,200 --> 04:51:49,600
buyers, sellers, and advisers, the
5683
04:51:47,280 --> 04:51:51,440
lesson is clear. proceed with rigorous
5684
04:51:49,600 --> 04:51:54,000
legal counsel, hardened custody
5685
04:51:51,440 --> 04:51:56,000
practices, and transparent compliance.
5686
04:51:54,000 --> 04:51:59,000
The opportunity is real, but so are the
5687
04:51:56,000 --> 04:51:59,000
pitfalls.
5688
04:52:17,600 --> 04:52:22,718
Still, the opportunities are huge. A new
5689
04:52:20,638 --> 04:52:25,120
generation of buyers is turning digital
5690
04:52:22,718 --> 04:52:28,000
value into physical assets. For many,
5691
04:52:25,120 --> 04:52:30,320
Bitcoin isn't just a currency. It's a
5692
04:52:28,000 --> 04:52:31,600
gateway to ownership.
5693
04:52:30,320 --> 04:52:33,840
One of the biggest shifts is
5694
04:52:31,600 --> 04:52:36,000
tokenization. Instead of buying an
5695
04:52:33,840 --> 04:52:37,840
entire building, investors can now
5696
04:52:36,000 --> 04:52:40,480
purchase fractional ownership through
5697
04:52:37,840 --> 04:52:42,160
blockchainbased tokens. This lowers the
5698
04:52:40,480 --> 04:52:44,160
barrier to entry, allowing smaller
5699
04:52:42,160 --> 04:52:45,920
investors to access real estate markets
5700
04:52:44,160 --> 04:52:49,638
that were once reserved for institutions
5701
04:52:45,920 --> 04:52:49,638
and the ultra wealthy.
5702
04:52:55,680 --> 04:52:58,680
forch.
5703
04:53:34,160 --> 04:53:39,040
Tokenization also brings liquidity to an
5704
04:53:37,040 --> 04:53:41,440
industry that has traditionally been
5705
04:53:39,040 --> 04:53:43,840
slow and illquid. Real estate
5706
04:53:41,440 --> 04:53:45,920
transactions can take months. Tokenized
5707
04:53:43,840 --> 04:53:48,638
shares can potentially be transferred in
5708
04:53:45,920 --> 04:53:51,040
minutes. Crypto is also reshaping
5709
04:53:48,638 --> 04:53:53,120
crossber real estate. International
5710
04:53:51,040 --> 04:53:55,920
buyers often face currency controls,
5711
04:53:53,120 --> 04:53:58,000
wire delays, and banking restrictions.
5712
04:53:55,920 --> 04:53:59,920
Cryptocurrency allows capital to move
5713
04:53:58,000 --> 04:54:01,680
globally with fewer friction points,
5714
04:53:59,920 --> 04:54:03,680
opening markets to buyers who were
5715
04:54:01,680 --> 04:54:05,440
previously locked out. As a result,
5716
04:54:03,680 --> 04:54:07,040
cities that embrace crypto-friendly
5717
04:54:05,440 --> 04:54:08,878
regulations are attracting global
5718
04:54:07,040 --> 04:54:10,320
capital faster. Developers are
5719
04:54:08,878 --> 04:54:12,240
responding by marketing properties
5720
04:54:10,320 --> 04:54:14,798
directly to crypto holders, not as a
5721
04:54:12,240 --> 04:54:16,638
novelty, but as a strategy. Governments
5722
04:54:14,798 --> 04:54:18,560
are also exploring blockchain for land
5723
04:54:16,638 --> 04:54:20,638
registries and property records.
5724
04:54:18,560 --> 04:54:22,638
Immutable ledgers can reduce disputes,
5725
04:54:20,638 --> 04:54:25,040
prevent title fraud, and provide
5726
04:54:22,638 --> 04:54:26,560
permanent verifiable ownership history,
5727
04:54:25,040 --> 04:54:28,798
especially in regions where property
5728
04:54:26,560 --> 04:54:30,560
rights are difficult to enforce. This
5729
04:54:28,798 --> 04:54:32,560
isn't a complete replacement of
5730
04:54:30,560 --> 04:54:34,878
traditional real estate. It's a
5731
04:54:32,560 --> 04:54:37,200
transformation. Crypto doesn't eliminate
5732
04:54:34,878 --> 04:54:38,958
the fundamentals. Location, demand, and
5733
04:54:37,200 --> 04:54:40,878
due diligence still matter, but it
5734
04:54:38,958 --> 04:54:43,040
changes how value moves, how quickly
5735
04:54:40,878 --> 04:54:45,040
deals happen, and who gets access. So,
5736
04:54:43,040 --> 04:54:47,200
what does all of this mean for you as an
5737
04:54:45,040 --> 04:54:48,878
investor or future home buyer? It means
5738
04:54:47,200 --> 04:54:50,798
new opportunities are emerging.
5739
04:54:48,878 --> 04:54:53,120
Opportunities to leverage your crypto
5740
04:54:50,798 --> 04:54:55,760
holdings. Opportunities to participate
5741
04:54:53,120 --> 04:54:58,160
in international markets more easily.
5742
04:54:55,760 --> 04:55:01,638
Opportunities to acquire property faster
5743
04:54:58,160 --> 04:55:01,638
and more efficiently.
5744
04:55:33,520 --> 04:55:35,920
Sophistic.
5745
04:55:38,958 --> 04:55:41,280
consequenc
5746
04:55:51,840 --> 04:55:55,080
Real estate
5747
04:56:00,798 --> 04:56:03,798
system.
5748
04:56:06,718 --> 04:56:09,718
Fore
5749
04:56:31,920 --> 04:56:35,080
real estate.
5750
04:56:41,200 --> 04:56:46,400
But like any emerging space, education
5751
04:56:44,160 --> 04:56:49,040
is key. Working with crypto friendly
5752
04:56:46,400 --> 04:56:51,040
agents, attorneys, and escrow companies
5753
04:56:49,040 --> 04:56:53,200
is essential.
5754
04:56:51,040 --> 04:56:54,878
Understanding your local regulations is
5755
04:56:53,200 --> 04:56:56,638
crucial, and ensuring the security of
5756
04:56:54,878 --> 04:56:59,638
your crypto wallet is absolutely
5757
04:56:56,638 --> 04:56:59,638
non-negotiable.
5758
04:57:01,120 --> 04:57:04,280
The professor
5759
04:57:30,718 --> 04:57:33,718
forenc.
5760
04:57:52,480 --> 04:57:55,480
Tomandotochech.
5761
04:58:12,638 --> 04:58:15,638
Fundamental.
5762
04:59:03,440 --> 04:59:07,920
The cryptocurrency market has entered
5763
04:59:05,360 --> 04:59:10,718
the opening days of 2026 with renewed
5764
04:59:07,920 --> 04:59:13,200
momentum after a volatile end to 2025.
5765
04:59:10,718 --> 04:59:14,718
Five. Prices across major digital assets
5766
04:59:13,200 --> 04:59:16,718
have moved sharply higher, drawing
5767
04:59:14,718 --> 04:59:18,958
attention from both retail traders and
5768
04:59:16,718 --> 04:59:21,280
institutional investors. In early
5769
04:59:18,958 --> 04:59:23,680
January, the total cryptocurrency market
5770
04:59:21,280 --> 04:59:26,080
capitalization climbed to around $3.2
5771
04:59:23,680 --> 04:59:28,000
trillion, according to aggregated data
5772
04:59:26,080 --> 04:59:29,680
from major market trackers. This
5773
04:59:28,000 --> 04:59:32,320
represents a meaningful rebound from
5774
04:59:29,680 --> 04:59:34,080
late 2025 levels with the market adding
5775
04:59:32,320 --> 04:59:36,000
hundreds of billions of dollars in value
5776
04:59:34,080 --> 04:59:37,840
over a relatively short period. While
5777
04:59:36,000 --> 04:59:39,360
exact figures vary, the direction is
5778
04:59:37,840 --> 04:59:40,878
clear. Capital has returned to the
5779
04:59:39,360 --> 04:59:42,798
crypto market at the start of the year.
5780
04:59:40,878 --> 04:59:45,280
At the center of this move is Bitcoin,
5781
04:59:42,798 --> 04:59:47,600
which rallied toward the $93,000 level
5782
04:59:45,280 --> 04:59:49,520
in the first week of January. As the
5783
04:59:47,600 --> 04:59:51,840
largest and most influential digital
5784
04:59:49,520 --> 04:59:53,440
asset, Bitcoin continues to act as the
5785
04:59:51,840 --> 04:59:54,798
market's primary anchor, and its
5786
04:59:53,440 --> 04:59:56,958
strength has helped lift sentiment
5787
04:59:54,798 --> 04:59:59,280
across the broader ecosystem.
5788
04:59:56,958 --> 05:00:01,680
Historically, strong Bitcoin performance
5789
04:59:59,280 --> 05:00:03,040
has often preceded periods of increased
5790
05:00:01,680 --> 05:00:05,920
activity in alternative
5791
05:00:03,040 --> 05:00:07,840
cryptocurrencies, and early 2026 appears
5792
05:00:05,920 --> 05:00:09,440
to be following a similar pattern.
5793
05:00:07,840 --> 05:00:11,120
Another key factor has been renewed
5794
05:00:09,440 --> 05:00:12,798
institutional participation,
5795
05:00:11,120 --> 05:00:15,360
particularly through spot Bitcoin and
5796
05:00:12,798 --> 05:00:17,760
Ethereum exchange traded funds. Reports
5797
05:00:15,360 --> 05:00:19,520
from early January indicate notable ETF
5798
05:00:17,760 --> 05:00:21,360
inflows, suggesting that traditional
5799
05:00:19,520 --> 05:00:23,440
investors are once again increasing
5800
05:00:21,360 --> 05:00:25,120
exposure to digital assets. The current
5801
05:00:23,440 --> 05:00:27,040
momentum appears to be driven by a
5802
05:00:25,120 --> 05:00:30,000
combination of factors, including
5803
05:00:27,040 --> 05:00:32,798
Bitcoin's price recovery, increased ETF
5804
05:00:30,000 --> 05:00:34,320
inflows, improved global risk sentiment,
5805
05:00:32,798 --> 05:00:36,718
expectations of more supportive
5806
05:00:34,320 --> 05:00:39,200
regulatory and macroeconomic conditions.
5807
05:00:36,718 --> 05:00:40,958
As 2026 begins, the cryptocurrency
5808
05:00:39,200 --> 05:00:43,120
market finds itself at a familiar
5809
05:00:40,958 --> 05:00:44,878
crossroads. Renewed optimism balanced
5810
05:00:43,120 --> 05:00:46,480
against persistent uncertainty. Whether
5811
05:00:44,878 --> 05:00:48,320
this earlier strength marks the
5812
05:00:46,480 --> 05:00:50,000
beginning of a sustained trend or simply
5813
05:00:48,320 --> 05:00:52,000
another chapter in crypto's cyclical
5814
05:00:50,000 --> 05:00:55,120
nature is a question that only time will
5815
05:00:52,000 --> 05:00:57,760
answer. For now, the message from the
5816
05:00:55,120 --> 05:00:59,840
market is clear. Crypto is once again
5817
05:00:57,760 --> 05:01:01,520
commanding attention. If you approach
5818
05:00:59,840 --> 05:01:03,600
crypto real estate with knowledge and
5819
05:01:01,520 --> 05:01:06,400
preparation, the rewards can be
5820
05:01:03,600 --> 05:01:09,280
extraordinary. Bitcoin the bricks isn't
5821
05:01:06,400 --> 05:01:11,680
just a catchy phrase. It's the future of
5822
05:01:09,280 --> 05:01:14,000
real estate investment. If you want to
5823
05:01:11,680 --> 05:01:16,480
stay ahead of the curve, now's the time
5824
05:01:14,000 --> 05:01:19,480
to learn how crypto can open doors.
5825
05:01:16,480 --> 05:01:19,480
Literally.
5826
05:01:28,240 --> 05:01:31,240
personas.
5827
05:01:42,718 --> 05:01:45,120
Transparenc.
5828
05:01:49,760 --> 05:01:52,760
control.
5829
05:02:16,480 --> 05:02:20,320
From digital coins to physical assets,
5830
05:02:18,638 --> 05:02:22,320
from online wallets to real world
5831
05:02:20,320 --> 05:02:24,480
property lines, cryptocurrency is
5832
05:02:22,320 --> 05:02:26,958
reshaping how we buy, sell, and think
5833
05:02:24,480 --> 05:02:29,280
about real estate. We are witnessing the
5834
05:02:26,958 --> 05:02:30,958
merging of two worlds. The oldest asset
5835
05:02:29,280 --> 05:02:33,280
on earth and one of the newest
5836
05:02:30,958 --> 05:02:36,080
technological inventions of our time.
5837
05:02:33,280 --> 05:02:38,560
And as the future unfolds, only one
5838
05:02:36,080 --> 05:02:41,798
question remain. Will Bitcoin buy your
5839
05:02:38,560 --> 05:02:41,798
next home?
5840
05:04:04,958 --> 05:04:10,400
September 2008.
5841
05:04:07,920 --> 05:04:13,040
The global financial system is on the
5842
05:04:10,400 --> 05:04:16,000
verge of a total blackout. Layman
5843
05:04:13,040 --> 05:04:19,760
Brothers has vanished. Meil Lynch is
5844
05:04:16,000 --> 05:04:21,760
gone. AIG is hemorrhaging billions every
5845
05:04:19,760 --> 05:04:24,080
hour.
5846
05:04:21,760 --> 05:04:26,000
In Washington, the halls of the Treasury
5847
05:04:24,080 --> 05:04:29,360
are filled with the smartest minds in
5848
05:04:26,000 --> 05:04:32,240
the country. But they have a problem.
5849
05:04:29,360 --> 05:04:35,120
They are staring at a black box of toxic
5850
05:04:32,240 --> 05:04:38,160
debt worth trillions and no tools to
5851
05:04:35,120 --> 05:04:41,280
open it. There is only one person who
5852
05:04:38,160 --> 05:04:43,680
has the map. one person who spent the
5853
05:04:41,280 --> 05:04:46,000
last 20 years building a digital
5854
05:04:43,680 --> 05:04:48,718
unblinking eye that can see through the
5855
05:04:46,000 --> 05:04:51,120
wreckage. The government didn't call the
5856
05:04:48,718 --> 05:04:53,840
big banks to save the world. They needed
5857
05:04:51,120 --> 05:04:55,760
someone to handle the toxic waste. And
5858
05:04:53,840 --> 05:04:59,280
there was only one man that could lead
5859
05:04:55,760 --> 05:05:02,280
through that darkness. They called Larry
5860
05:04:59,280 --> 05:05:02,280
Frink.
5861
05:05:03,760 --> 05:05:09,400
Larry Frink, the man behind Black Rock.
5862
05:05:10,160 --> 05:05:16,560
Today, he manages more money than the
5863
05:05:12,240 --> 05:05:18,878
GDP of almost every nation on Earth, $14
5864
05:05:16,560 --> 05:05:20,878
trillion.
5865
05:05:18,878 --> 05:05:23,200
But before he was the shadow sovereign
5866
05:05:20,878 --> 05:05:24,798
of Wall Street, he was a man who lost
5867
05:05:23,200 --> 05:05:28,958
everything.
5868
05:05:24,798 --> 05:05:31,040
Who is Larry Frink? Lawrence D.Fin, also
5869
05:05:28,958 --> 05:05:33,760
known as Larry Frink, is one of the
5870
05:05:31,040 --> 05:05:37,120
co-founders of Black Rockck. He is also
5871
05:05:33,760 --> 05:05:39,120
the chairman and CEO of the company, the
5872
05:05:37,120 --> 05:05:42,320
largest money management firm in the
5873
05:05:39,120 --> 05:05:44,080
world. It's the first time in history a
5874
05:05:42,320 --> 05:05:46,718
company manages to reach such a
5875
05:05:44,080 --> 05:05:49,760
milestone and gives a clear picture of
5876
05:05:46,718 --> 05:05:52,400
how Black Rockck operates. not just a
5877
05:05:49,760 --> 05:05:54,718
traditional investment bank but as a
5878
05:05:52,400 --> 05:05:57,440
central pillar of the global financial
5879
05:05:54,718 --> 05:05:59,680
infrastructure where its sheer scale
5880
05:05:57,440 --> 05:06:01,520
allows it to influence economies and
5881
05:05:59,680 --> 05:06:05,840
industries at a level previously
5882
05:06:01,520 --> 05:06:08,798
reserved only for nation states.
5883
05:06:05,840 --> 05:06:11,680
Founded in 1988 as an investment firm
5884
05:06:08,798 --> 05:06:15,840
that prioritized risk management with
5885
05:06:11,680 --> 05:06:19,040
11.5 to$14 trillion under management,
5886
05:06:15,840 --> 05:06:21,280
Blackrop's influence is staggering.
5887
05:06:19,040 --> 05:06:25,440
Black Rockck is a top three shareholder
5888
05:06:21,280 --> 05:06:28,560
in nearly every company in the S&P 500
5889
05:06:25,440 --> 05:06:31,520
from Apple to Exxon, from Microsoft to
5890
05:06:28,560 --> 05:06:35,280
Nestle. They don't just invest in the
5891
05:06:31,520 --> 05:06:38,160
market, they are the market.
5892
05:06:35,280 --> 05:06:40,798
But its reach is personal. It holds the
5893
05:06:38,160 --> 05:06:43,840
retirement dreams of over 35 million
5894
05:06:40,798 --> 05:06:46,400
Americans. This is the story of how a
5895
05:06:43,840 --> 05:06:50,000
kid from a California shoe store became
5896
05:06:46,400 --> 05:06:53,440
the custodian of the world's wealth. But
5897
05:06:50,000 --> 05:06:56,080
who is Larry Frink? Lawrence Douglas
5898
05:06:53,440 --> 05:06:58,560
Frink entered the world on November the
5899
05:06:56,080 --> 05:07:01,280
2nd, 1952.
5900
05:06:58,560 --> 05:07:03,280
Born in Los Angeles, California, he was
5901
05:07:01,280 --> 05:07:05,200
raised in a Jewish family in the heart
5902
05:07:03,280 --> 05:07:09,680
of San Fernando Valley, the
5903
05:07:05,200 --> 05:07:12,080
quintessential American suburb of Vanoi.
5904
05:07:09,680 --> 05:07:14,958
His home was a balance of academic
5905
05:07:12,080 --> 05:07:17,040
discipline and retail grit. His mother,
5906
05:07:14,958 --> 05:07:18,958
Leela, was an English professor who
5907
05:07:17,040 --> 05:07:20,480
valued the power of language and
5908
05:07:18,958 --> 05:07:22,480
education.
5909
05:07:20,480 --> 05:07:24,718
And long before he pulled the strings of
5910
05:07:22,480 --> 05:07:26,878
the global economy, Barry Frink was
5911
05:07:24,718 --> 05:07:29,840
learning the value of money on a much
5912
05:07:26,878 --> 05:07:32,958
smaller scale. His father's shoe store
5913
05:07:29,840 --> 05:07:35,840
in Vano, where he spent evenings helping
5914
05:07:32,958 --> 05:07:38,000
and learning the business. As one of
5915
05:07:35,840 --> 05:07:40,000
three children, Larry grew up in a
5916
05:07:38,000 --> 05:07:43,120
household where hard work wasn't just
5917
05:07:40,000 --> 05:07:45,120
encouraged, it was the baseline.
5918
05:07:43,120 --> 05:07:47,120
While he often joked he wasn't the
5919
05:07:45,120 --> 05:07:49,360
smartest in the room, it was this
5920
05:07:47,120 --> 05:07:52,080
specific combination of his mother's
5921
05:07:49,360 --> 05:07:54,080
intellectual curiosity and his father's
5922
05:07:52,080 --> 05:07:56,718
mainstream business sense that would
5923
05:07:54,080 --> 05:07:59,760
eventually form the DNA of a global
5924
05:07:56,718 --> 05:08:01,680
financial giant. While the future titans
5925
05:07:59,760 --> 05:08:04,080
of Wall Street were rubbing elbows in
5926
05:08:01,680 --> 05:08:08,320
the marble halls of Harvard or Yale,
5927
05:08:04,080 --> 05:08:11,600
think was a brewin. In 1970, Larry
5928
05:08:08,320 --> 05:08:14,160
arrived at UCLA. For a young man from
5929
05:08:11,600 --> 05:08:17,840
Vanoise, this wasn't just a local
5930
05:08:14,160 --> 05:08:20,000
university. It was a world of ideas.
5931
05:08:17,840 --> 05:08:22,480
But it was in his final years that the
5932
05:08:20,000 --> 05:08:24,958
trajectory of his life shifted. He
5933
05:08:22,480 --> 05:08:26,798
immersed himself in political science,
5934
05:08:24,958 --> 05:08:29,680
learning how power moves through the
5935
05:08:26,798 --> 05:08:31,760
nations. But he soon realized that in
5936
05:08:29,680 --> 05:08:34,400
the modern world, power follows the
5937
05:08:31,760 --> 05:08:36,400
money. This led him to the Anderson
5938
05:08:34,400 --> 05:08:39,280
School of Management specializing in
5939
05:08:36,400 --> 05:08:41,040
real estate. It was here that he began
5940
05:08:39,280 --> 05:08:43,920
to see the world through the lens of
5941
05:08:41,040 --> 05:08:45,840
assets and yields.
5942
05:08:43,920 --> 05:08:48,320
This public education gave him a
5943
05:08:45,840 --> 05:08:50,160
different edge. While his peers at
5944
05:08:48,320 --> 05:08:52,480
private East Coast schools were being
5945
05:08:50,160 --> 05:08:55,280
groomed for traditional corporate roles,
5946
05:08:52,480 --> 05:08:57,120
Larry was developing the outsider's eye,
5947
05:08:55,280 --> 05:08:59,440
perspective that allowed him to see
5948
05:08:57,120 --> 05:09:03,638
opportunities in the messy, unpolished
5949
05:08:59,440 --> 05:09:03,638
corners of the bond market.
5950
05:09:04,240 --> 05:09:10,000
He graduated in 1976, not with a silver
5951
05:09:07,920 --> 05:09:11,920
spoon, but with a California bred
5952
05:09:10,000 --> 05:09:13,520
ambition to take on the giants of
5953
05:09:11,920 --> 05:09:16,160
Manhattan.
5954
05:09:13,520 --> 05:09:18,638
He was a brein headed for Wall Street
5955
05:09:16,160 --> 05:09:21,878
and the financial world had no idea what
5956
05:09:18,638 --> 05:09:21,878
was coming.
5957
05:09:24,080 --> 05:09:28,560
The year is 1976.
5958
05:09:26,638 --> 05:09:30,718
New York City is a grit cover
5959
05:09:28,560 --> 05:09:33,360
battlefield and Larry Frink has just
5960
05:09:30,718 --> 05:09:35,680
been handed the keys to the kingdom.
5961
05:09:33,360 --> 05:09:38,000
Goldman Sachs, the most prestigious name
5962
05:09:35,680 --> 05:09:41,280
in finance back then, has practically
5963
05:09:38,000 --> 05:09:44,320
hired him. He had passed the technical
5964
05:09:41,280 --> 05:09:46,080
tests. He had charmed the partners. All
5965
05:09:44,320 --> 05:09:48,638
that remained was a rubber stamp
5966
05:09:46,080 --> 05:09:52,000
interview with human resources.
5967
05:09:48,638 --> 05:09:54,718
But Larry, Larry wasn't just confident.
5968
05:09:52,000 --> 05:09:56,560
He was impatient. When the recruiter
5969
05:09:54,718 --> 05:09:58,958
asked for his thoughts on the firm,
5970
05:09:56,560 --> 05:10:01,600
Larry didn't give a thank you. He gave a
5971
05:09:58,958 --> 05:10:04,160
consultation. He pointed out the flaws
5972
05:10:01,600 --> 05:10:07,280
in their system. At Goldman, they wanted
5973
05:10:04,160 --> 05:10:10,520
a soldier. Larry was already acting like
5974
05:10:07,280 --> 05:10:10,520
a general.
5975
05:10:12,080 --> 05:10:17,440
In that room, the rigid Goldman way
5976
05:10:14,400 --> 05:10:19,520
clashed with the unfiltered Frink way.
5977
05:10:17,440 --> 05:10:22,878
Before he could even hail a camp back to
5978
05:10:19,520 --> 05:10:25,200
his hotel, the offer was dead. The most
5979
05:10:22,878 --> 05:10:27,600
coveted job in Wall Street history had
5980
05:10:25,200 --> 05:10:29,440
vanished. All because Larry Frink
5981
05:10:27,600 --> 05:10:32,798
couldn't stop himself from trying to fix
5982
05:10:29,440 --> 05:10:35,760
a system he hadn't even joined yet. It
5983
05:10:32,798 --> 05:10:38,240
was a crushing blow. But in the shadow
5984
05:10:35,760 --> 05:10:40,400
of that rejection, a door opened at a
5985
05:10:38,240 --> 05:10:42,958
scrappy second tier firm called First
5986
05:10:40,400 --> 05:10:46,320
Boston. It was a place with less
5987
05:10:42,958 --> 05:10:48,638
prestige but more white space. At
5988
05:10:46,320 --> 05:10:51,680
Goldman, he would have been a cog in a
5989
05:10:48,638 --> 05:10:54,560
perfect machine. At First Boston, he was
5990
05:10:51,680 --> 05:10:56,560
the architect. He was given a desk, a
5991
05:10:54,560 --> 05:10:58,878
telephone, and the freedom to build
5992
05:10:56,560 --> 05:11:01,840
something entirely new, the
5993
05:10:58,878 --> 05:11:04,480
mortgagebacked security. He didn't know
5994
05:11:01,840 --> 05:11:07,200
it yet, but that recruiters know was the
5995
05:11:04,480 --> 05:11:12,200
foundation upon which the $14 trillion
5996
05:11:07,200 --> 05:11:12,200
empire of Black Rockck would be built.
5997
05:11:17,200 --> 05:11:23,440
It's 1976 when Larry Frink arrives at
5998
05:11:20,480 --> 05:11:25,520
First Boston. At the time, the firm was
5999
05:11:23,440 --> 05:11:28,240
the scrappy underdog of investment
6000
05:11:25,520 --> 05:11:31,840
banking. It wasn't as stiff as Morgan
6001
05:11:28,240 --> 05:11:34,000
Stanley or as elitist as Goldman. It was
6002
05:11:31,840 --> 05:11:37,120
the perfect laboratory for a man who
6003
05:11:34,000 --> 05:11:40,160
didn't fit the mold. Larry was assigned
6004
05:11:37,120 --> 05:11:42,080
to the bond department. Back then, bonds
6005
05:11:40,160 --> 05:11:44,560
were considered the boring corner of
6006
05:11:42,080 --> 05:11:48,080
finance. It was where you went to
6007
05:11:44,560 --> 05:11:51,120
retire. Stocks were sexy. Bonds were for
6008
05:11:48,080 --> 05:11:54,560
grandmothers. But Larry saw something
6009
05:11:51,120 --> 05:11:57,360
everyone else missed. He looked at the
6010
05:11:54,560 --> 05:11:59,520
American dream. the suburban house, the
6011
05:11:57,360 --> 05:12:03,360
white picket fence, the 30-year
6012
05:11:59,520 --> 05:12:05,280
mortgage, and he saw a math problem. He
6013
05:12:03,360 --> 05:12:07,760
realized that if you took thousands of
6014
05:12:05,280 --> 05:12:10,080
individual home mortgages, bundled them
6015
05:12:07,760 --> 05:12:12,718
together like a deck of cards, and sold
6016
05:12:10,080 --> 05:12:15,440
slices of that deck to investors, you
6017
05:12:12,718 --> 05:12:18,320
created a money machine.
6018
05:12:15,440 --> 05:12:19,840
This was the birth of the securitization
6019
05:12:18,320 --> 05:12:22,240
market.
6020
05:12:19,840 --> 05:12:24,878
What Larry Frink helped create was more
6021
05:12:22,240 --> 05:12:28,440
than a financial product. It was a
6022
05:12:24,878 --> 05:12:28,440
structural shift.
6023
05:12:28,798 --> 05:12:33,760
Securitization didn't just bundle
6024
05:12:30,958 --> 05:12:35,280
mortgages. It separated risk from
6025
05:12:33,760 --> 05:12:37,440
reality.
6026
05:12:35,280 --> 05:12:39,520
For the first time, financial value
6027
05:12:37,440 --> 05:12:42,480
could travel faster than the underlying
6028
05:12:39,520 --> 05:12:44,400
economy that supported it. A house in
6029
05:12:42,480 --> 05:12:46,560
California became a line in a
6030
05:12:44,400 --> 05:12:50,240
spreadsheet in New York, which became a
6031
05:12:46,560 --> 05:12:52,240
yield sold to an investor in Tokyo. Risk
6032
05:12:50,240 --> 05:12:55,280
no longer lived where decisions were
6033
05:12:52,240 --> 05:12:57,600
made. It was abstracted, sliced,
6034
05:12:55,280 --> 05:13:00,480
repackaged, and distributed across the
6035
05:12:57,600 --> 05:13:02,718
system. This was the moment when finance
6036
05:13:00,480 --> 05:13:06,080
stopped reflecting the real economy and
6037
05:13:02,718 --> 05:13:08,400
began building a parallel one. A system
6038
05:13:06,080 --> 05:13:10,160
that could grow without limits as long
6039
05:13:08,400 --> 05:13:14,400
as everyone believed the models were
6040
05:13:10,160 --> 05:13:16,958
right. And for a while, they were.
6041
05:13:14,400 --> 05:13:19,600
By the early 80s, Larry was the golden
6042
05:13:16,958 --> 05:13:22,000
boy. He wasn't just hitting targets, he
6043
05:13:19,600 --> 05:13:24,240
was shattering them. In one year, his
6044
05:13:22,000 --> 05:13:26,320
department was responsible for nearly
6045
05:13:24,240 --> 05:13:29,360
onethird of First Boston's total
6046
05:13:26,320 --> 05:13:31,600
profits. At age 31, he became the
6047
05:13:29,360 --> 05:13:34,560
youngest managing director the firm had
6048
05:13:31,600 --> 05:13:37,120
ever seen. He was earning millions. He
6049
05:13:34,560 --> 05:13:39,920
was the successor, the Prodigy, the man
6050
05:13:37,120 --> 05:13:42,560
who could do no wrong. He had moved to
6051
05:13:39,920 --> 05:13:45,040
his family to a sprawling estate. He was
6052
05:13:42,560 --> 05:13:49,638
flying private. He had conquered the
6053
05:13:45,040 --> 05:13:49,638
grit cover battlefield of Manhattan.
6054
05:13:50,160 --> 05:13:54,560
But in the world of high finance, the
6055
05:13:52,320 --> 05:13:57,560
higher you fly, the thinner the air
6056
05:13:54,560 --> 05:13:57,560
becomes.
6057
05:13:59,120 --> 05:14:03,360
Larry was making hundreds of millions
6058
05:14:01,040 --> 05:14:06,240
for the bank. But there was a ghost in
6059
05:14:03,360 --> 05:14:10,080
the machine, a variable he hadn't
6060
05:14:06,240 --> 05:14:12,400
accounted for. The year was 1986.
6061
05:14:10,080 --> 05:14:15,200
Larry had made a massive bet on interest
6062
05:14:12,400 --> 05:14:18,638
rates. He believed they would stay
6063
05:14:15,200 --> 05:14:20,718
stable. He was so sure of his math, so
6064
05:14:18,638 --> 05:14:22,638
confident in his track record that he
6065
05:14:20,718 --> 05:14:24,958
didn't realize the ground was shifting
6066
05:14:22,638 --> 05:14:26,958
beneath his feet.
6067
05:14:24,958 --> 05:14:29,200
In just 3 months, the Golden Boy
6068
05:14:26,958 --> 05:14:33,040
department went from profit to a
6069
05:14:29,200 --> 05:14:36,160
catastrophic $100 million loss. In the
6070
05:14:33,040 --> 05:14:38,958
80s, 100 million wasn't just a loss, it
6071
05:14:36,160 --> 05:14:41,040
was a national scandal. Overnight, the
6072
05:14:38,958 --> 05:14:44,080
man who was supposed to run the bank was
6073
05:14:41,040 --> 05:14:46,000
a pariah. The phones stopped ringing.
6074
05:14:44,080 --> 05:14:48,638
The friends on the trading floor looked
6075
05:14:46,000 --> 05:14:50,878
away when he walked by. He had been the
6076
05:14:48,638 --> 05:14:53,680
smartest man in the room until he
6077
05:14:50,878 --> 05:14:55,920
wasn't. He would later describe this
6078
05:14:53,680 --> 05:14:59,120
moment as the most painful experience of
6079
05:14:55,920 --> 05:15:01,760
my life. But as he sat in the ruins of
6080
05:14:59,120 --> 05:15:04,160
his reputation, Larry Frink wasn't just
6081
05:15:01,760 --> 05:15:06,240
mourning his career. He was obsessed
6082
05:15:04,160 --> 05:15:09,280
with one question.
6083
05:15:06,240 --> 05:15:11,760
How did I not see the risk?
6084
05:15:09,280 --> 05:15:14,400
That obsession, the fear of the unknown
6085
05:15:11,760 --> 05:15:17,718
variable would become the cornerstone of
6086
05:15:14,400 --> 05:15:17,718
Black Rockck.
6087
05:15:20,878 --> 05:15:27,040
By 1983, Larry wasn't just selling
6088
05:15:23,680 --> 05:15:31,480
bonds, he was a pioneer of the CMO,
6089
05:15:27,040 --> 05:15:31,480
collateralized mortgage obligation.
6090
05:15:31,760 --> 05:15:36,638
Think of it like a waterfall. Larry took
6091
05:15:34,560 --> 05:15:39,600
thousands of mortgages and sliced them
6092
05:15:36,638 --> 05:15:42,718
into tranches. Some investors took the
6093
05:15:39,600 --> 05:15:45,840
top slice, low risk, low reward. Others
6094
05:15:42,718 --> 05:15:47,760
took the bottom, high risk, high yield.
6095
05:15:45,840 --> 05:15:51,600
It was a masterpiece of financial
6096
05:15:47,760 --> 05:15:54,320
engineering. It made the illquid liquid.
6097
05:15:51,600 --> 05:15:56,638
It made First Boston the center of the
6098
05:15:54,320 --> 05:15:58,798
universe.
6099
05:15:56,638 --> 05:16:01,760
But there was a flaw, a tiny
6100
05:15:58,798 --> 05:16:03,760
mathematical ghost in his models.
6101
05:16:01,760 --> 05:16:06,000
Larry's team had predicted that interest
6102
05:16:03,760 --> 05:16:08,480
rates would rise, and they hedged their
6103
05:16:06,000 --> 05:16:11,520
bets accordingly. But in the second
6104
05:16:08,480 --> 05:16:13,920
quarter of 1986, rates did something the
6105
05:16:11,520 --> 05:16:15,520
models said was impossible. They
6106
05:16:13,920 --> 05:16:17,200
plummeted
6107
05:16:15,520 --> 05:16:19,840
because they didn't have a system to
6108
05:16:17,200 --> 05:16:22,400
track their realtime exposure. Larry was
6109
05:16:19,840 --> 05:16:25,440
flying blind. He was the pilot of a
6110
05:16:22,400 --> 05:16:27,600
Boeing 747 trying to land in a storm
6111
05:16:25,440 --> 05:16:30,080
using nothing but a compass and a
6112
05:16:27,600 --> 05:16:32,080
prayer. By the time he realized the
6113
05:16:30,080 --> 05:16:36,160
engines were on fire, the plane had
6114
05:16:32,080 --> 05:16:39,560
already hit the mountain. $100 million.
6115
05:16:36,160 --> 05:16:39,560
all gone.
6116
05:16:41,680 --> 05:16:47,040
He wasn't just fired, he was erased.
6117
05:16:44,958 --> 05:16:50,080
After the dust settled, Larry found
6118
05:16:47,040 --> 05:16:53,040
himself in a peculiar kind of exile. He
6119
05:16:50,080 --> 05:16:55,760
wasn't just unemployed, he was haunted.
6120
05:16:53,040 --> 05:16:58,160
He realized that the $100 million loss
6121
05:16:55,760 --> 05:17:01,760
wasn't a failure of talent, it was a
6122
05:16:58,160 --> 05:17:04,400
failure of vision. What happened in 1986
6123
05:17:01,760 --> 05:17:07,440
wasn't a personal miscalculation.
6124
05:17:04,400 --> 05:17:09,840
It was a systemic blindness.
6125
05:17:07,440 --> 05:17:12,638
At the time, every major financial
6126
05:17:09,840 --> 05:17:15,680
institution operated the same way.
6127
05:17:12,638 --> 05:17:18,400
Positions were fragmented. Exposure was
6128
05:17:15,680 --> 05:17:21,520
estimated, not measured. Risk was
6129
05:17:18,400 --> 05:17:23,840
inferred after the fact. Banks knew what
6130
05:17:21,520 --> 05:17:26,878
they bought yesterday, but not what it
6131
05:17:23,840 --> 05:17:29,440
was worth right now. The system rewarded
6132
05:17:26,878 --> 05:17:31,920
speed, volume, and confidence, not
6133
05:17:29,440 --> 05:17:34,560
understanding. And as long as markets
6134
05:17:31,920 --> 05:17:37,040
moved slowly, the illusion held. But
6135
05:17:34,560 --> 05:17:40,000
once volatility entered the market, no
6136
05:17:37,040 --> 05:17:43,040
one truly knew where the danger was or
6137
05:17:40,000 --> 05:17:45,680
how large it had become. Larry didn't
6138
05:17:43,040 --> 05:17:47,680
just lose money. He realized the entire
6139
05:17:45,680 --> 05:17:50,638
financial system was flying without
6140
05:17:47,680 --> 05:17:53,360
instruments. Wall Street was essentially
6141
05:17:50,638 --> 05:17:56,638
a collection of blind giants.
6142
05:17:53,360 --> 05:17:58,958
Every major firm, Goldman, Layman,
6143
05:17:56,638 --> 05:18:01,520
Merrill Lynch, was standing just one
6144
05:17:58,958 --> 05:18:05,120
inch away from total collapse at any
6145
05:18:01,520 --> 05:18:08,320
given second. Why? Because they didn't
6146
05:18:05,120 --> 05:18:11,840
actually know what they owned. This was
6147
05:18:08,320 --> 05:18:14,240
information blindness.
6148
05:18:11,840 --> 05:18:16,638
In the 1980s, you knew what you bought
6149
05:18:14,240 --> 05:18:19,840
yesterday, but you had no idea what it
6150
05:18:16,638 --> 05:18:22,480
was worth right now. A sudden shift in
6151
05:18:19,840 --> 05:18:24,718
interest rates or a political coup
6152
05:18:22,480 --> 05:18:26,560
across the ocean could vaporize a
6153
05:18:24,718 --> 05:18:29,440
billion dollars before the morning
6154
05:18:26,560 --> 05:18:32,798
coffee was poured.
6155
05:18:29,440 --> 05:18:35,440
Larry understood a terrifying truth. The
6156
05:18:32,798 --> 05:18:38,718
entire global financial system was built
6157
05:18:35,440 --> 05:18:40,560
on a foundation of guesswork.
6158
05:18:38,718 --> 05:18:42,080
It hit him with the force of an
6159
05:18:40,560 --> 05:18:44,400
epiphany.
6160
05:18:42,080 --> 05:18:46,480
If he could build a brain, a machine
6161
05:18:44,400 --> 05:18:48,798
that could see the risk that humans were
6162
05:18:46,480 --> 05:18:52,000
too slow to calculate, he wouldn't just
6163
05:18:48,798 --> 05:18:54,240
be a banker. He would be the only man in
6164
05:18:52,000 --> 05:18:57,440
the world with a flashlight in a dark
6165
05:18:54,240 --> 05:19:00,240
room. This realization changed his
6166
05:18:57,440 --> 05:19:02,240
entire philosophy of investing. He
6167
05:19:00,240 --> 05:19:04,958
stopped looking for the big score and
6168
05:19:02,240 --> 05:19:07,360
started looking for the safe passage. He
6169
05:19:04,958 --> 05:19:11,280
didn't want to beat the market anymore.
6170
05:19:07,360 --> 05:19:13,680
He wanted to measure it.
6171
05:19:11,280 --> 05:19:16,638
He would later tell his partners, "We
6172
05:19:13,680 --> 05:19:19,280
are never going to be blind again."
6173
05:19:16,638 --> 05:19:22,240
That vow, born from the humiliation of
6174
05:19:19,280 --> 05:19:25,360
1986, became the blueprint for a new
6175
05:19:22,240 --> 05:19:28,000
kind of firm. A firm that didn't rely on
6176
05:19:25,360 --> 05:19:32,680
the ego of a star trader, but on the
6177
05:19:28,000 --> 05:19:32,680
cold, unblinking eye of technology.
6178
05:19:37,520 --> 05:19:43,520
Larry Frink was a man with a vision, but
6179
05:19:40,240 --> 05:19:45,440
he was also a man with a tainted resume.
6180
05:19:43,520 --> 05:19:48,080
To the rest of Wall Street, he was the
6181
05:19:45,440 --> 05:19:50,240
guy who lost a h 100red million. But to
6182
05:19:48,080 --> 05:19:52,878
a small circle of insiders at First
6183
05:19:50,240 --> 05:19:56,240
Boston, he was the only one who truly
6184
05:19:52,878 --> 05:19:59,040
understood why it happened. He began
6185
05:19:56,240 --> 05:20:01,680
making calls. He wasn't offering high
6186
05:19:59,040 --> 05:20:04,480
salaries or flashy offices. He was
6187
05:20:01,680 --> 05:20:06,560
offering a chance to build a holy grail,
6188
05:20:04,480 --> 05:20:08,798
a financial firm where technology
6189
05:20:06,560 --> 05:20:11,920
governed the ego, not the other way
6190
05:20:08,798 --> 05:20:14,160
round. And he eventually found the right
6191
05:20:11,920 --> 05:20:17,160
people to help him build that holy
6192
05:20:14,160 --> 05:20:17,160
grail.
6193
05:20:17,760 --> 05:20:24,000
Rob Capito, the enforcer, a powerhouse
6194
05:20:21,840 --> 05:20:26,560
trader who knew the plumbing of the bomb
6195
05:20:24,000 --> 05:20:28,638
market better than anyone else. He
6196
05:20:26,560 --> 05:20:32,240
provided the muscle Larry needed to
6197
05:20:28,638 --> 05:20:35,280
execute the vision. Ben Golib, the
6198
05:20:32,240 --> 05:20:36,798
Oracle, a PhD with a mind like a
6199
05:20:35,280 --> 05:20:38,638
supercomput.
6200
05:20:36,798 --> 05:20:41,120
While other bankers were focused on
6201
05:20:38,638 --> 05:20:43,760
lunch reservations, Golib was thinking
6202
05:20:41,120 --> 05:20:46,000
about value at risk and Monte Carlo
6203
05:20:43,760 --> 05:20:49,520
simulations.
6204
05:20:46,000 --> 05:20:51,920
Susan Wagner, the mastermind,
6205
05:20:49,520 --> 05:20:53,520
brilliant, calculating, and capable of
6206
05:20:51,920 --> 05:20:55,760
seeing structural flaws in a
6207
05:20:53,520 --> 05:20:58,080
multi-billion dollar merger before a
6208
05:20:55,760 --> 05:21:00,718
single paper was signed. Along with
6209
05:20:58,080 --> 05:21:02,958
Barbara Novik, Ralph Schllostein, Q
6210
05:21:00,718 --> 05:21:06,160
Freighter, and Keith Anderson, they
6211
05:21:02,958 --> 05:21:07,920
became the original eight. Frink wasn't
6212
05:21:06,160 --> 05:21:11,200
looking for bankers who would run after
6213
05:21:07,920 --> 05:21:14,320
the money. He wanted architects, people
6214
05:21:11,200 --> 05:21:16,320
who were tired of being blind.
6215
05:21:14,320 --> 05:21:18,958
When he found them, they met in living
6216
05:21:16,320 --> 05:21:20,798
rooms and coffee shops. They had the
6217
05:21:18,958 --> 05:21:23,840
blueprints for a system they called
6218
05:21:20,798 --> 05:21:26,560
Aladdin, an acronym for asset,
6219
05:21:23,840 --> 05:21:29,600
liability, debt, and derivative
6220
05:21:26,560 --> 05:21:32,080
investment network. It was designed to
6221
05:21:29,600 --> 05:21:34,240
be the unblinking eye Larry had dreamed
6222
05:21:32,080 --> 05:21:36,320
of in his exile.
6223
05:21:34,240 --> 05:21:39,280
But a brain without a body is just a
6224
05:21:36,320 --> 05:21:42,638
dream. To build Aladdin, they needed
6225
05:21:39,280 --> 05:21:44,400
hardware. They needed offices. And most
6226
05:21:42,638 --> 05:21:46,958
importantly, they needed the one thing
6227
05:21:44,400 --> 05:21:49,440
Larry's reputation had cost him.
6228
05:21:46,958 --> 05:21:51,760
Capital. Aladdin was not designed to
6229
05:21:49,440 --> 05:21:54,160
beat the market. It was designed to
6230
05:21:51,760 --> 05:21:57,040
understand it. But its real power
6231
05:21:54,160 --> 05:22:00,320
emerged when others started using it.
6232
05:21:57,040 --> 05:22:03,440
Banks, insurance companies, pension
6233
05:22:00,320 --> 05:22:05,600
funds, sovereign institutions. As
6234
05:22:03,440 --> 05:22:09,040
Aladdin spread, something subtle
6235
05:22:05,600 --> 05:22:12,080
happened. Risk stopped being subjective.
6236
05:22:09,040 --> 05:22:14,638
It became standardized. When Aladdin
6237
05:22:12,080 --> 05:22:18,680
flagged an asset as dangerous, entire
6238
05:22:14,638 --> 05:22:18,680
markets adjusted accordingly.
6239
05:22:18,798 --> 05:22:24,080
Not because Larry Frink said so, but
6240
05:22:21,200 --> 05:22:26,000
because the system trusted the model. At
6241
05:22:24,080 --> 05:22:28,400
that point, Black Rockck was no longer
6242
05:22:26,000 --> 05:22:31,520
just managing money. It was helping
6243
05:22:28,400 --> 05:22:33,920
define how risk itself was understood.
6244
05:22:31,520 --> 05:22:37,638
And whoever defines risk defines the
6245
05:22:33,920 --> 05:22:37,638
boundaries of decisionmaking.
6246
05:22:46,160 --> 05:22:51,600
Enter Steven Schwartzman. In 1988,
6247
05:22:49,520 --> 05:22:54,718
Schwartzman was the rising king of
6248
05:22:51,600 --> 05:22:58,480
private equity. His firm Blackstone was
6249
05:22:54,718 --> 05:23:01,040
aggressive, wealthy, and hungry.
6250
05:22:58,480 --> 05:23:04,160
The meeting was tense. Schwartzman knew
6251
05:23:01,040 --> 05:23:07,600
Larry's history. He knew about the 1986
6252
05:23:04,160 --> 05:23:11,280
disaster. But Larry didn't hide from it.
6253
05:23:07,600 --> 05:23:13,280
He used it as his primary selling point.
6254
05:23:11,280 --> 05:23:15,680
Because Larry had seen the end of the
6255
05:23:13,280 --> 05:23:18,240
world already, he knew exactly how the
6256
05:23:15,680 --> 05:23:20,000
lights went out. And because of that, he
6257
05:23:18,240 --> 05:23:22,160
was the only one who knew how to keep
6258
05:23:20,000 --> 05:23:24,878
them on.
6259
05:23:22,160 --> 05:23:26,878
Larry's pitch was revolutionary. He
6260
05:23:24,878 --> 05:23:30,080
didn't want to start a hedge fund. He
6261
05:23:26,878 --> 05:23:31,840
wanted to create a fiduciary company, a
6262
05:23:30,080 --> 05:23:34,000
firm that managed other people's money
6263
05:23:31,840 --> 05:23:36,638
with the same technological rigor
6264
05:23:34,000 --> 05:23:39,360
usually reserved for NASA.
6265
05:23:36,638 --> 05:23:41,760
He asked for a $5 million credit line
6266
05:23:39,360 --> 05:23:44,320
and a partnership. In exchange,
6267
05:23:41,760 --> 05:23:46,958
Schwartzman would own 50% of the new
6268
05:23:44,320 --> 05:23:48,878
venture. He knew he was buying cheap
6269
05:23:46,958 --> 05:23:52,638
because he was buying on a distressed
6270
05:23:48,878 --> 05:23:54,560
asset, Think's damaged reputation.
6271
05:23:52,638 --> 05:23:56,638
But he did so betting on the idea that
6272
05:23:54,560 --> 05:24:01,280
the experience had turned Larry Frink
6273
05:23:56,638 --> 05:24:04,560
into some sort of financial genius.
6274
05:24:01,280 --> 05:24:07,200
The deal was done. On a Friday in March
6275
05:24:04,560 --> 05:24:09,040
1988, the team moved into a single
6276
05:24:07,200 --> 05:24:10,560
cramped room within Blackstone's
6277
05:24:09,040 --> 05:24:13,280
offices.
6278
05:24:10,560 --> 05:24:15,280
They were five computers, a few folding
6279
05:24:13,280 --> 05:24:18,000
chairs, and a mountain of cables on the
6280
05:24:15,280 --> 05:24:20,320
floor. They were under the Blackstone
6281
05:24:18,000 --> 05:24:22,798
umbrella. But Larry knew that this was
6282
05:24:20,320 --> 05:24:26,320
just a temporary shelter. He didn't just
6283
05:24:22,798 --> 05:24:28,958
want a department, he wanted an empire.
6284
05:24:26,320 --> 05:24:31,120
He had the money. He had the team. And
6285
05:24:28,958 --> 05:24:33,200
in the corner of that small room, the
6286
05:24:31,120 --> 05:24:36,000
first lines of code for Aladdin were
6287
05:24:33,200 --> 05:24:38,958
being written.
6288
05:24:36,000 --> 05:24:40,958
The information blindness was over. The
6289
05:24:38,958 --> 05:24:45,400
era of Black Rock, though it didn't have
6290
05:24:40,958 --> 05:24:45,400
that name yet, had begun.
6291
05:24:49,520 --> 05:24:54,718
The first office of Blackstone Financial
6292
05:24:51,840 --> 05:24:57,680
Management wasn't a glass tower. It was
6293
05:24:54,718 --> 05:25:00,400
a glorified closet. Because of the heat
6294
05:24:57,680 --> 05:25:02,320
generated by the early Sun Microsystems
6295
05:25:00,400 --> 05:25:07,920
workstations, the temperature in the
6296
05:25:02,320 --> 05:25:09,680
room rarely dropped below 80°, 27° C.
6297
05:25:07,920 --> 05:25:12,160
While the rest of the Blackstone group
6298
05:25:09,680 --> 05:25:14,638
was out at expensive lunches closing
6299
05:25:12,160 --> 05:25:19,040
leveraged buyouts, Larry's original
6300
05:25:14,638 --> 05:25:21,360
eight were building a digital fortress.
6301
05:25:19,040 --> 05:25:23,680
They were the weirdos in the basement.
6302
05:25:21,360 --> 05:25:27,280
It was here that the name Aladdin became
6303
05:25:23,680 --> 05:25:30,000
a living thing. Every day, Ben Goler and
6304
05:25:27,280 --> 05:25:33,120
his team fed it data. Interest rates,
6305
05:25:30,000 --> 05:25:34,878
housing prices, historical crashes. They
6306
05:25:33,120 --> 05:25:40,280
were teaching the machine to be afraid
6307
05:25:34,878 --> 05:25:40,280
of everything Larry hadn't seen in 1986.
6308
05:25:43,840 --> 05:25:49,120
By 1992, the department inside
6309
05:25:46,560 --> 05:25:51,840
Blackstone was no longer a startup. It
6310
05:25:49,120 --> 05:25:55,200
was a powerhouse. Larry's team was
6311
05:25:51,840 --> 05:25:56,798
managing $17 billion.
6312
05:25:55,200 --> 05:25:59,120
They weren't just a side project
6313
05:25:56,798 --> 05:26:02,080
anymore. They were a significant engine
6314
05:25:59,120 --> 05:26:04,560
of Blackstone's growth. But with success
6315
05:26:02,080 --> 05:26:06,718
came a toxic byproduct,
6316
05:26:04,560 --> 05:26:09,360
identity confusion.
6317
05:26:06,718 --> 05:26:11,040
Clients were getting confused. They
6318
05:26:09,360 --> 05:26:13,520
would call Blackstone looking for
6319
05:26:11,040 --> 05:26:16,000
Larry's bond expertise or called Larry
6320
05:26:13,520 --> 05:26:18,480
looking for Schwarzman's buyouts. But
6321
05:26:16,000 --> 05:26:21,120
the friction went deeper than a name. It
6322
05:26:18,480 --> 05:26:23,600
was a war of philosophies. Schwartzman
6323
05:26:21,120 --> 05:26:26,958
was a dealmaker. He wanted to own
6324
05:26:23,600 --> 05:26:30,320
companies. Think was a fiduciary. He
6325
05:26:26,958 --> 05:26:32,560
wanted to manage risk for others.
6326
05:26:30,320 --> 05:26:34,878
The tension was similar to having two
6327
05:26:32,560 --> 05:26:37,280
predators in a cage too small to fit
6328
05:26:34,878 --> 05:26:40,400
both. The breaking point came over
6329
05:26:37,280 --> 05:26:42,638
equity. Larry wanted to use stock to
6330
05:26:40,400 --> 05:26:45,840
attract and keep the original eight and
6331
05:26:42,638 --> 05:26:47,920
new talent. Schwarzman, holding 50% of
6332
05:26:45,840 --> 05:26:50,400
the firm, didn't want to dilute his
6333
05:26:47,920 --> 05:26:52,560
state. The partnership that saved
6334
05:26:50,400 --> 05:26:58,560
Larry's career was now suffocating his
6335
05:26:52,560 --> 05:27:00,638
vision. In 1994, they reached a deal.
6336
05:26:58,560 --> 05:27:04,560
Schwarzman agreed to sell Blackstone
6337
05:27:00,638 --> 05:27:06,638
steak for $240 million. At the time, it
6338
05:27:04,560 --> 05:27:08,798
seemed like a win for Schwarzman, a
6339
05:27:06,638 --> 05:27:11,680
massive return on his $5 million
6340
05:27:08,798 --> 05:27:14,080
investment. It wasn't just about money.
6341
05:27:11,680 --> 05:27:16,320
It was about the spotlight. Schwarzman
6342
05:27:14,080 --> 05:27:18,798
was the king of Wall Street, but his
6343
05:27:16,320 --> 05:27:21,360
subtenant Larry Frink was the one the
6344
05:27:18,798 --> 05:27:24,878
New York Times wanted to interview. But
6345
05:27:21,360 --> 05:27:26,958
for Larry, it was the price of freedom.
6346
05:27:24,878 --> 05:27:29,280
Schwarzman would later call selling
6347
05:27:26,958 --> 05:27:32,000
Black Rock the worst mistake of my
6348
05:27:29,280 --> 05:27:34,558
career. For Larry, the divorce was the
6349
05:27:32,000 --> 05:27:37,040
moment the training wheels came off. He
6350
05:27:34,558 --> 05:27:40,080
was no longer under anyone's umbrella.
6351
05:27:37,040 --> 05:27:41,760
He was the CEO of an independent firm.
6352
05:27:40,080 --> 05:27:43,680
Now he just had to prove he could
6353
05:27:41,760 --> 05:27:46,680
survive the coming storm of the late
6354
05:27:43,680 --> 05:27:46,680
90s.
6355
05:27:54,400 --> 05:28:00,240
It is 2008. The financial world was
6356
05:27:57,680 --> 05:28:02,480
experiencing a heart attack. The
6357
05:28:00,240 --> 05:28:04,798
financial smoothies that mortgage back
6358
05:28:02,480 --> 05:28:07,120
securities Larry had helped create 30
6359
05:28:04,798 --> 05:28:08,480
years earlier had turned into a global
6360
05:28:07,120 --> 05:28:10,718
poison.
6361
05:28:08,480 --> 05:28:12,718
Banks didn't know what they owned, and
6362
05:28:10,718 --> 05:28:15,120
more importantly, they didn't know what
6363
05:28:12,718 --> 05:28:16,958
their neighbors owned. Trust had
6364
05:28:15,120 --> 05:28:18,958
evaporated.
6365
05:28:16,958 --> 05:28:20,718
When the US government realized the
6366
05:28:18,958 --> 05:28:22,798
economy was on the brink of a total
6367
05:28:20,718 --> 05:28:26,718
blackout, they didn't call Goldman
6368
05:28:22,798 --> 05:28:29,040
Sachs. They didn't call JP Morgan. While
6369
05:28:26,718 --> 05:28:31,040
the CEOs of Layman and Merrill were
6370
05:28:29,040 --> 05:28:33,120
begging for government checks, Larry
6371
05:28:31,040 --> 05:28:35,440
Frink was the one the government called
6372
05:28:33,120 --> 05:28:37,680
to write the checks.
6373
05:28:35,440 --> 05:28:40,160
He was the only title left standing with
6374
05:28:37,680 --> 05:28:42,160
a clean balance sheet.
6375
05:28:40,160 --> 05:28:44,320
The United States government didn't just
6376
05:28:42,160 --> 05:28:46,160
seek advice, it delegated
6377
05:28:44,320 --> 05:28:48,160
responsibility.
6378
05:28:46,160 --> 05:28:51,040
Black Rockck was tasked with valuing
6379
05:28:48,160 --> 05:28:53,280
assets no one understood, managing risks
6380
05:28:51,040 --> 05:28:55,200
no one could measure, and stabilizing
6381
05:28:53,280 --> 05:28:57,680
markets that were collapsing in real
6382
05:28:55,200 --> 05:29:00,080
time.
6383
05:28:57,680 --> 05:29:03,120
This wasn't a bailout. It was an
6384
05:29:00,080 --> 05:29:04,878
outsourcing of core sovereign functions.
6385
05:29:03,120 --> 05:29:06,878
For the first time, a private firm
6386
05:29:04,878 --> 05:29:09,920
played a central role in maintaining
6387
05:29:06,878 --> 05:29:11,840
global financial stability. Not through
6388
05:29:09,920 --> 05:29:14,240
political authority, but through
6389
05:29:11,840 --> 05:29:16,878
technical capability.
6390
05:29:14,240 --> 05:29:19,680
From that moment on, power was no longer
6391
05:29:16,878 --> 05:29:21,680
just about laws and institutions. It was
6392
05:29:19,680 --> 05:29:23,920
about who had the tools to see the
6393
05:29:21,680 --> 05:29:25,840
system clearly.
6394
05:29:23,920 --> 05:29:29,040
Black Rockck was hired to manage the
6395
05:29:25,840 --> 05:29:30,718
toxic waste of the crisis. They became
6396
05:29:29,040 --> 05:29:34,080
the official cleaner for the US
6397
05:29:30,718 --> 05:29:37,558
government, managing $130 billion of
6398
05:29:34,080 --> 05:29:37,558
troubled assets.
6399
05:29:37,600 --> 05:29:42,320
Suddenly, Larry Frink was the most
6400
05:29:40,000 --> 05:29:44,000
powerful man in the room, acting as an
6401
05:29:42,320 --> 05:29:45,600
adviser to the president and the
6402
05:29:44,000 --> 05:29:47,920
treasury.
6403
05:29:45,600 --> 05:29:50,718
But while he was saving the system, he
6404
05:29:47,920 --> 05:29:53,040
saw a once-ina-lifetime opportunity to
6405
05:29:50,718 --> 05:29:55,520
dominate it. In the middle of the
6406
05:29:53,040 --> 05:29:58,320
carnage, Barclay's bank in the UK was
6407
05:29:55,520 --> 05:30:00,558
desperate for cash. They needed to sell
6408
05:29:58,320 --> 05:30:02,638
their crown jewel, a division called
6409
05:30:00,558 --> 05:30:05,040
Barclay's Global Investors, which
6410
05:30:02,638 --> 05:30:06,798
included a revolutionary product called
6411
05:30:05,040 --> 05:30:08,638
Eyesshares.
6412
05:30:06,798 --> 05:30:11,520
Eyesshares represented passive
6413
05:30:08,638 --> 05:30:14,558
investing. ETFs that track the whole
6414
05:30:11,520 --> 05:30:16,400
market rather than trying to beat it. It
6415
05:30:14,558 --> 05:30:19,200
was the ultimate expression of Larry's
6416
05:30:16,400 --> 05:30:21,760
philosophy. Stop betting on stars and
6417
05:30:19,200 --> 05:30:26,480
start owning the system. It was a
6418
05:30:21,760 --> 05:30:28,718
massive $13.5 billion gamble. If the
6419
05:30:26,480 --> 05:30:31,600
markets continue to fall, deal could
6420
05:30:28,718 --> 05:30:34,000
sink Blackrop. But Larry knew something
6421
05:30:31,600 --> 05:30:36,798
the others didn't. He had looked into
6422
05:30:34,000 --> 05:30:39,200
the eye of Aladdin and Aladdin told him
6423
05:30:36,798 --> 05:30:42,240
that the bottom was near. With the
6424
05:30:39,200 --> 05:30:44,958
acquisition of Eyesshares in 2009, Black
6425
05:30:42,240 --> 05:30:47,360
Rockck doubled its size overnight. They
6426
05:30:44,958 --> 05:30:49,840
weren't just a bond shop anymore. They
6427
05:30:47,360 --> 05:30:52,320
were now the largest money manager on
6428
05:30:49,840 --> 05:30:55,120
the planet. They had gone into the
6429
05:30:52,320 --> 05:30:57,520
crisis as a respected firm. They came
6430
05:30:55,120 --> 05:31:00,520
out of it as the shadow government of
6431
05:30:57,520 --> 05:31:00,520
finance.
6432
05:31:05,120 --> 05:31:10,480
By 2012, Larry Frink had built the
6433
05:31:07,760 --> 05:31:13,120
machine. He had the assets, the data,
6434
05:31:10,480 --> 05:31:16,400
and the influence. But he realized that
6435
05:31:13,120 --> 05:31:18,320
being king of Wall Street wasn't enough.
6436
05:31:16,400 --> 05:31:21,520
He wanted to change the way the world
6437
05:31:18,320 --> 05:31:23,360
did business. Every January, a ritual
6438
05:31:21,520 --> 05:31:26,480
began that would send tremors through
6439
05:31:23,360 --> 05:31:28,798
boardrooms from Detroit to Frankfurt.
6440
05:31:26,480 --> 05:31:31,280
Larry started writing letters. They
6441
05:31:28,798 --> 05:31:35,160
weren't just annual reports. They were
6442
05:31:31,280 --> 05:31:35,160
the Black Rockck Manifestos.
6443
05:31:35,840 --> 05:31:41,840
In 2018, he dropped a bomb. He told the
6444
05:31:39,600 --> 05:31:43,920
world's CEOs that if they wanted Black
6445
05:31:41,840 --> 05:31:47,040
Rockck's money, they had to prove they
6446
05:31:43,920 --> 05:31:49,840
served a social purpose. He wasn't just
6447
05:31:47,040 --> 05:31:53,840
asking for profits. He was asking for a
6448
05:31:49,840 --> 05:31:56,718
soul. He was mainstreaming ESG,
6449
05:31:53,840 --> 05:31:59,920
environmental, social, and governance.
6450
05:31:56,718 --> 05:32:02,958
And he was doing it with a $10 trillion
6451
05:31:59,920 --> 05:32:06,480
hammer. But Larry's new gospel didn't
6452
05:32:02,958 --> 05:32:08,400
sit well with everyone. By 2021, the
6453
05:32:06,480 --> 05:32:12,000
Golden Boy was finding himself in the
6454
05:32:08,400 --> 05:32:15,200
middle of a two-front war.
6455
05:32:12,000 --> 05:32:19,040
The ESG debate was never cultural. It
6456
05:32:15,200 --> 05:32:20,958
was economic. At its core, ESG was about
6457
05:32:19,040 --> 05:32:23,520
risk management, anticipating
6458
05:32:20,958 --> 05:32:25,760
regulation, climate disruption, and
6459
05:32:23,520 --> 05:32:27,920
social instability.
6460
05:32:25,760 --> 05:32:30,798
For Black Rockck, ignoring those factors
6461
05:32:27,920 --> 05:32:33,280
wasn't neutral. It was dangerous. But
6462
05:32:30,798 --> 05:32:36,080
when capital begins to price the future,
6463
05:32:33,280 --> 05:32:38,878
it also begins to shape it. That's why
6464
05:32:36,080 --> 05:32:41,760
the backlash was so intense.
6465
05:32:38,878 --> 05:32:43,680
To the left, Larry was a hypocrite. They
6466
05:32:41,760 --> 05:32:45,840
called him a greenwasher because Black
6467
05:32:43,680 --> 05:32:48,400
Rockck still held billions in oil and
6468
05:32:45,840 --> 05:32:50,558
gas stocks. To the right, he was a
6469
05:32:48,400 --> 05:32:52,400
globalist villain who was using other
6470
05:32:50,558 --> 05:32:55,360
people's money to push a radical
6471
05:32:52,400 --> 05:32:57,360
environmental agenda. The backlash
6472
05:32:55,360 --> 05:33:00,360
turned into a full-scale political
6473
05:32:57,360 --> 05:33:00,360
assault.
6474
05:33:00,400 --> 05:33:05,200
State treasurers in Florida, Texas, and
6475
05:33:02,878 --> 05:33:07,760
Mississippi began pulling billions out
6476
05:33:05,200 --> 05:33:10,400
of Black Rockck. They accused Larry of
6477
05:33:07,760 --> 05:33:12,558
boycotting energy and violating his duty
6478
05:33:10,400 --> 05:33:14,480
to investors.
6479
05:33:12,558 --> 05:33:17,200
For the first time, the man who had
6480
05:33:14,480 --> 05:33:22,520
mastered risk found himself in a risk he
6481
05:33:17,200 --> 05:33:22,520
couldn't calculate, the culture war.
6482
05:33:24,000 --> 05:33:28,878
He told a crowd in Aspen that he was
6483
05:33:26,240 --> 05:33:31,040
ashamed to be a part of the debate. He
6484
05:33:28,878 --> 05:33:34,080
even stopped using the term ESG
6485
05:33:31,040 --> 05:33:36,000
altogether, calling it weaponized.
6486
05:33:34,080 --> 05:33:38,718
He had tried to become the conscience of
6487
05:33:36,000 --> 05:33:41,600
capitalism. Instead, it became its most
6488
05:33:38,718 --> 05:33:43,600
controversial target. But even as the
6489
05:33:41,600 --> 05:33:48,558
politicians shouted and the protesters
6490
05:33:43,600 --> 05:33:50,240
marched, the assets kept growing.
6491
05:33:48,558 --> 05:33:52,320
Because in the end, whether you loved
6492
05:33:50,240 --> 05:33:56,360
him or hated him, you couldn't escape
6493
05:33:52,320 --> 05:33:56,360
the machine he built.
6494
05:34:04,240 --> 05:34:08,798
January 2026,
6495
05:34:06,480 --> 05:34:10,480
the number flashes on a terminal in
6496
05:34:08,798 --> 05:34:14,480
Black Rockck's Hudson Yards
6497
05:34:10,480 --> 05:34:17,600
headquarters. $14 trillion.
6498
05:34:14,480 --> 05:34:19,280
It is a number so vast it defies human
6499
05:34:17,600 --> 05:34:21,680
comprehension.
6500
05:34:19,280 --> 05:34:24,240
If Larry Frink's assets under management
6501
05:34:21,680 --> 05:34:26,240
were a country's GDP, it would be the
6502
05:34:24,240 --> 05:34:28,718
third largest economy on Earth,
6503
05:34:26,240 --> 05:34:30,240
surpassed only by the United States and
6504
05:34:28,718 --> 05:34:32,558
China.
6505
05:34:30,240 --> 05:34:35,360
But as Larry looks out from his office,
6506
05:34:32,558 --> 05:34:37,200
he isn't looking at stock tickers. He is
6507
05:34:35,360 --> 05:34:40,200
looking at the very bones of
6508
05:34:37,200 --> 05:34:40,200
civilization.
6509
05:34:41,760 --> 05:34:48,240
In 2024, Larry made his final most
6510
05:34:45,200 --> 05:34:50,718
aggressive pivot. He realized that the
6511
05:34:48,240 --> 05:34:53,520
next decade won't be one with bits on a
6512
05:34:50,718 --> 05:34:56,718
screen, but with atoms in the ground.
6513
05:34:53,520 --> 05:34:59,200
With the 12.5 billion acquisition of
6514
05:34:56,718 --> 05:35:01,440
global infrastructure partners, Larry
6515
05:34:59,200 --> 05:35:04,958
signaled the end of the old Wall Street
6516
05:35:01,440 --> 05:35:07,440
era. Larry saw the AI revolution coming.
6517
05:35:04,958 --> 05:35:09,520
But he didn't buy the chip makers. He
6518
05:35:07,440 --> 05:35:12,520
bought the power plants that feed the
6519
05:35:09,520 --> 05:35:12,520
chips.
6520
05:35:15,440 --> 05:35:22,440
But every empire faces the same
6521
05:35:17,440 --> 05:35:22,440
inevitable question. Succession.
6522
05:35:23,840 --> 05:35:28,160
For years, Wall Street has whispered
6523
05:35:25,920 --> 05:35:31,440
about who could possibly replace the man
6524
05:35:28,160 --> 05:35:33,760
who is Black Rockck. Names like Rob
6525
05:35:31,440 --> 05:35:36,160
Capito, Mark Weberman, and Jennifer
6526
05:35:33,760 --> 05:35:39,200
Johnson swirl in the press. But the
6527
05:35:36,160 --> 05:35:41,920
truth is more complex. Larry hasn't just
6528
05:35:39,200 --> 05:35:44,160
built a company. He's built an organism.
6529
05:35:41,920 --> 05:35:47,040
A system where Aladdin, now a very
6530
05:35:44,160 --> 05:35:50,160
sophisticated AI entity, handles the
6531
05:35:47,040 --> 05:35:52,958
risk while a legion of 20,000 employees,
6532
05:35:50,160 --> 05:35:55,280
executes the vision. Aladdin is no
6533
05:35:52,958 --> 05:35:57,360
longer just a calculator. It is a
6534
05:35:55,280 --> 05:36:00,080
predictive engine that runs millions of
6535
05:35:57,360 --> 05:36:01,920
simulations every second, anticipating
6536
05:36:00,080 --> 05:36:05,760
everything from a war in the Middle East
6537
05:36:01,920 --> 05:36:08,160
to a crop failure in Brazil.
6538
05:36:05,760 --> 05:36:11,280
Some call him the king of the world.
6539
05:36:08,160 --> 05:36:13,520
Others call him the shadow architect.
6540
05:36:11,280 --> 05:36:15,600
But if you ask Larry, he'll tell you
6541
05:36:13,520 --> 05:36:17,920
he's still that kid from the Van Noise
6542
05:36:15,600 --> 05:36:21,958
shoe store, just trying to make sure
6543
05:36:17,920 --> 05:36:21,958
that the maths add up.
6544
05:36:22,320 --> 05:36:26,558
He took the greatest humiliation of his
6545
05:36:24,320 --> 05:36:28,638
life and turned it into a shield for the
6546
05:36:26,558 --> 05:36:30,638
global economy.
6547
05:36:28,638 --> 05:36:33,360
He taught the world that profit without
6548
05:36:30,638 --> 05:36:38,480
a plan is just a gamble and that in the
6549
05:36:33,360 --> 05:36:40,480
dark, the man with a flashlight is king.
6550
05:36:38,480 --> 05:36:43,440
There is one financial question the
6551
05:36:40,480 --> 05:36:46,080
system cannot answer. What happens when
6552
05:36:43,440 --> 05:36:48,480
everyone measures risk the same way?
6553
05:36:46,080 --> 05:36:50,878
When models converge. When assumptions
6554
05:36:48,480 --> 05:36:52,558
align. When diversity of judgment
6555
05:36:50,878 --> 05:36:54,878
disappears.
6556
05:36:52,558 --> 05:36:57,840
A system optimized for stability can
6557
05:36:54,878 --> 05:36:59,840
become fragile. Not because it is wrong
6558
05:36:57,840 --> 05:37:01,440
but because it leaves no room for the
6559
05:36:59,840 --> 05:37:03,600
unexpected.
6560
05:37:01,440 --> 05:37:06,080
When the supervisor becomes invisible
6561
05:37:03,600 --> 05:37:09,120
and the rules are embedded in code,
6562
05:37:06,080 --> 05:37:12,480
accountability becomes harder to locate,
6563
05:37:09,120 --> 05:37:14,400
the system works until it doesn't. And
6564
05:37:12,480 --> 05:37:16,958
that's why Blackprop isn't just a
6565
05:37:14,400 --> 05:37:19,600
shareholder in your company. They are
6566
05:37:16,958 --> 05:37:22,400
the landlord of your power plant, the
6567
05:37:19,600 --> 05:37:24,718
owner of your airport, the architect of
6568
05:37:22,400 --> 05:37:26,718
your retirement. It is a level of
6569
05:37:24,718 --> 05:37:29,520
centralized influence the world has
6570
05:37:26,718 --> 05:37:32,000
never seen in a private individual.
6571
05:37:29,520 --> 05:37:34,878
Lawrence D.Fink didn't just build a
6572
05:37:32,000 --> 05:37:36,480
bank. He built the unblinking eye of
6573
05:37:34,878 --> 05:37:38,798
capitalism.
6574
05:37:36,480 --> 05:37:40,958
And as the world moves into the era of
6575
05:37:38,798 --> 05:37:43,840
AI, climate shift, and global
6576
05:37:40,958 --> 05:37:47,120
restructuring, one thing is certain.
6577
05:37:43,840 --> 05:37:51,718
Black Rockck will be there watching,
6578
05:37:47,120 --> 05:37:51,718
calculating, and growing.
6579
05:39:11,680 --> 05:39:16,718
It's just a small plastic brick.
6580
05:39:15,200 --> 05:39:21,840
Lightweight,
6581
05:39:16,718 --> 05:39:26,160
simple, unchanged since 1958.
6582
05:39:21,840 --> 05:39:28,240
And yet, it has built entire universes.
6583
05:39:26,160 --> 05:39:30,718
Lego constructions truly take us back to
6584
05:39:28,240 --> 05:39:32,480
childhood.
6585
05:39:30,718 --> 05:39:35,040
But they stay with us throughout our
6586
05:39:32,480 --> 05:39:37,440
entire lives. From bedrooms to
6587
05:39:35,040 --> 05:39:41,680
boardrooms, from playgrounds to
6588
05:39:37,440 --> 05:39:44,080
Hollywood, Lego has shaped generations.
6589
05:39:41,680 --> 05:39:45,920
>> When I design something from scratch, I
6590
05:39:44,080 --> 05:39:48,320
start with an idea that occurs to me at
6591
05:39:45,920 --> 05:39:50,160
any time of day.
6592
05:39:48,320 --> 05:39:53,120
>> I try to build it with Lego and see what
6593
05:39:50,160 --> 05:39:57,200
I come up with. In a global toy market
6594
05:39:53,120 --> 05:39:59,920
worth more than $120 billion, LEGO
6595
05:39:57,200 --> 05:40:02,878
stands alone. A single company
6596
05:39:59,920 --> 05:40:05,280
controlling nearly one in every $10
6597
05:40:02,878 --> 05:40:07,440
spent on toys worldwide.
6598
05:40:05,280 --> 05:40:09,040
>> LEGO holds a leading position worldwide,
6599
05:40:07,440 --> 05:40:10,718
recognized above all for its
6600
05:40:09,040 --> 05:40:12,878
playability.
6601
05:40:10,718 --> 05:40:16,958
>> What if the most beloved toy in the
6602
05:40:12,878 --> 05:40:19,360
world almost didn't exist?
6603
05:40:16,958 --> 05:40:22,000
Discover the incredible journey of a
6604
05:40:19,360 --> 05:40:24,000
small, struggling carpentry shop. The
6605
05:40:22,000 --> 05:40:25,920
dared to dream bigger than anyone
6606
05:40:24,000 --> 05:40:28,400
thought possible.
6607
05:40:25,920 --> 05:40:31,440
>> This is the untold story of the
6608
05:40:28,400 --> 05:40:34,558
visionary who built Lego,
6609
05:40:31,440 --> 05:40:37,840
transforming simple wooden bricks into a
6610
05:40:34,558 --> 05:40:40,718
multibillion dollar empire and forever
6611
05:40:37,840 --> 05:40:42,958
changing how we play.
6612
05:40:40,718 --> 05:40:46,160
But none of this began with billiondoll
6613
05:40:42,958 --> 05:40:50,080
charts or cinematic universes.
6614
05:40:46,160 --> 05:40:53,280
It began with a carpenter with a vision.
6615
05:40:50,080 --> 05:40:56,480
In a tiny Danish village, one man had a
6616
05:40:53,280 --> 05:40:59,480
dream. Building toys out of scraps of
6617
05:40:56,480 --> 05:40:59,480
wood.
6618
05:41:05,680 --> 05:41:12,480
Ole Kirk Christensen was born in 1891 in
6619
05:41:09,520 --> 05:41:16,480
western Denmark, a place defined by
6620
05:41:12,480 --> 05:41:19,200
silence, soil, and hard work.
6621
05:41:16,480 --> 05:41:21,360
He grew up poor, like most children in
6622
05:41:19,200 --> 05:41:22,638
the Jutland countryside.
6623
05:41:21,360 --> 05:41:25,360
But he learned the value of
6624
05:41:22,638 --> 05:41:28,878
craftsmanship early. When you made
6625
05:41:25,360 --> 05:41:31,600
something, it had to last.
6626
05:41:28,878 --> 05:41:33,840
He apprenticed as a carpenter. It was
6627
05:41:31,600 --> 05:41:37,440
not a really glamorous work, but
6628
05:41:33,840 --> 05:41:40,718
meticulous. honest. A craft that matched
6629
05:41:37,440 --> 05:41:43,200
Ola's character and manners.
6630
05:41:40,718 --> 05:41:46,558
Ola traveled through Denmark, Germany,
6631
05:41:43,200 --> 05:41:50,080
and Norway. Everywhere he went, he left
6632
05:41:46,558 --> 05:41:52,080
a reputation. Precise, patient,
6633
05:41:50,080 --> 05:41:55,760
relentless.
6634
05:41:52,080 --> 05:41:57,760
In 1916, Ole returned home and bought a
6635
05:41:55,760 --> 05:42:02,000
workshop in a place that barely existed
6636
05:41:57,760 --> 05:42:04,558
on the map. Bond. No shops, no train
6637
05:42:02,000 --> 05:42:06,558
station, just a handful of families
6638
05:42:04,558 --> 05:42:08,400
trying to survive the Danish winds.
6639
05:42:06,558 --> 05:42:11,520
>> Don't worry, I'm fine. I'm fine.
6640
05:42:08,400 --> 05:42:13,680
>> But 8 years later, disaster struck.
6641
05:42:11,520 --> 05:42:16,718
>> Oh. Oh. Oh no.
6642
05:42:13,680 --> 05:42:17,360
>> In 1924, a fire tore through his
6643
05:42:16,718 --> 05:42:20,240
workshop.
6644
05:42:17,360 --> 05:42:25,040
>> Oh god, no. Please, no. Oh my god.
6645
05:42:20,240 --> 05:42:29,600
>> Everything burned. Tools, wood, orders,
6646
05:42:25,040 --> 05:42:33,680
and a lifetime of savings. All gone.
6647
05:42:29,600 --> 05:42:36,320
But Ol didn't quit. He rebuilt and
6648
05:42:33,680 --> 05:42:38,878
rebuilt bigger than before. Not because
6649
05:42:36,320 --> 05:42:42,798
it was safe, but because he refused to
6650
05:42:38,878 --> 05:42:45,680
let Bland disappear into the wind.
6651
05:42:42,798 --> 05:42:48,320
Then came the Great Depression. Houses
6652
05:42:45,680 --> 05:42:52,240
weren't being built. Doors weren't being
6653
05:42:48,320 --> 05:42:54,878
ordered. Bills weren't being paid.
6654
05:42:52,240 --> 05:42:57,920
Oair had workers depending on him,
6655
05:42:54,878 --> 05:43:00,878
families depending on him. So he did
6656
05:42:57,920 --> 05:43:04,638
something unexpected. He began crafting
6657
05:43:00,878 --> 05:43:08,320
small wooden toys. They were simple,
6658
05:43:04,638 --> 05:43:11,280
durable, and beautiful.
6659
05:43:08,320 --> 05:43:14,958
Locals mocked him. A grown man making
6660
05:43:11,280 --> 05:43:18,320
toys for children, you'll never survive.
6661
05:43:14,958 --> 05:43:20,320
But Ola believed that play and fun was a
6662
05:43:18,320 --> 05:43:23,440
serious business.
6663
05:43:20,320 --> 05:43:27,120
In 1934, he held a contest to name the
6664
05:43:23,440 --> 05:43:30,798
new toy company. He chose a short word,
6665
05:43:27,120 --> 05:43:34,480
Lego. It was not only a simple idea, but
6666
05:43:30,798 --> 05:43:37,280
a philosophy and a promise.
6667
05:43:34,480 --> 05:43:39,920
He hung a sign in the workshop. Only the
6668
05:43:37,280 --> 05:43:45,000
best is good enough. It wasn't
6669
05:43:39,920 --> 05:43:45,000
marketing. It was his identity.
6670
05:43:46,878 --> 05:43:50,160
>> Oh god, not again.
6671
05:43:48,400 --> 05:43:53,600
>> In 1942,
6672
05:43:50,160 --> 05:43:56,080
Ola faced another fire. This time it was
6673
05:43:53,600 --> 05:43:59,760
bigger, more devastating. Every
6674
05:43:56,080 --> 05:44:02,320
blueprint, every toy, every dream he had
6675
05:43:59,760 --> 05:44:05,120
turned into smoke.
6676
05:44:02,320 --> 05:44:08,718
But he had built himself the hardship.
6677
05:44:05,120 --> 05:44:11,840
And once more, he rebuilt the factory
6678
05:44:08,718 --> 05:44:15,840
stronger than the two previous ones.
6679
05:44:11,840 --> 05:44:17,920
In 1947, at the worst economic moment,
6680
05:44:15,840 --> 05:44:19,200
Ola made the riskiest choice of his
6681
05:44:17,920 --> 05:44:21,360
life.
6682
05:44:19,200 --> 05:44:24,638
He spent more than twice the company's
6683
05:44:21,360 --> 05:44:27,040
annual profits on a strange new machine.
6684
05:44:24,638 --> 05:44:28,878
One that worked not with wood, but with
6685
05:44:27,040 --> 05:44:31,520
plastic.
6686
05:44:28,878 --> 05:44:33,920
Retailers hated plastic. Parents
6687
05:44:31,520 --> 05:44:37,680
distrusted it. But Ola saw something
6688
05:44:33,920 --> 05:44:40,160
they didn't. Precision, repeatability,
6689
05:44:37,680 --> 05:44:42,400
and possibilities. Endless
6690
05:44:40,160 --> 05:44:45,760
possibilities.
6691
05:44:42,400 --> 05:44:47,920
Only 2 years later, in 1949,
6692
05:44:45,760 --> 05:44:51,200
LEGO released the first plastic bricks
6693
05:44:47,920 --> 05:44:54,000
of its history. They didn't click. They
6694
05:44:51,200 --> 05:44:57,000
weren't perfect, but they were the
6695
05:44:54,000 --> 05:44:57,000
beginning.
6696
05:45:01,280 --> 05:45:05,600
>> The idea was good, but Ol and his team
6697
05:45:03,840 --> 05:45:07,920
faced setbacks while designing the
6698
05:45:05,600 --> 05:45:09,600
bricks that had cemented LEGO's identity
6699
05:45:07,920 --> 05:45:13,360
through the years.
6700
05:45:09,600 --> 05:45:15,440
The plastic bricks didn't grip. This was
6701
05:45:13,360 --> 05:45:18,320
a major problem for a building set
6702
05:45:15,440 --> 05:45:21,280
because buildings collapsed. Towers fell
6703
05:45:18,320 --> 05:45:25,440
in front of their eyes. Apparently, Lego
6704
05:45:21,280 --> 05:45:26,958
wasn't created to build. And then in
6705
05:45:25,440 --> 05:45:29,280
1958,
6706
05:45:26,958 --> 05:45:31,600
everything changed.
6707
05:45:29,280 --> 05:45:33,600
>> Unlike 20 years ago, LEGO today allows
6708
05:45:31,600 --> 05:45:35,920
us to build many more things because
6709
05:45:33,600 --> 05:45:39,240
they have released more realistic colors
6710
05:45:35,920 --> 05:45:39,240
and shapes.
6711
05:45:39,520 --> 05:45:44,320
In the past, the pieces were mostly
6712
05:45:41,600 --> 05:45:46,320
square. Today, there is a much wider
6713
05:45:44,320 --> 05:45:48,480
variety of shapes, including more
6714
05:45:46,320 --> 05:45:51,280
rounded elements, which allow us to
6715
05:45:48,480 --> 05:45:53,040
create more ergonomic forms, ones that
6716
05:45:51,280 --> 05:45:55,360
more closely resemble the kinds of
6717
05:45:53,040 --> 05:45:57,520
buildings and structures we see in
6718
05:45:55,360 --> 05:46:00,558
everyday life.
6719
05:45:57,520 --> 05:46:03,840
>> Engineers at LEGO perfected a simple but
6720
05:46:00,558 --> 05:46:05,840
ingenious solution. hollow tubes inside
6721
05:46:03,840 --> 05:46:08,160
the brick.
6722
05:46:05,840 --> 05:46:10,718
Paired with the studs on top, the
6723
05:46:08,160 --> 05:46:14,558
geometry created what LEGO calls clutch
6724
05:46:10,718 --> 05:46:16,798
power, not too tight, not too loose,
6725
05:46:14,558 --> 05:46:18,718
just perfect.
6726
05:46:16,798 --> 05:46:21,360
This was not just an adjustment or
6727
05:46:18,718 --> 05:46:24,480
improvement. It was the birth of what we
6728
05:46:21,360 --> 05:46:27,120
know today as a Lego brick. The brick
6729
05:46:24,480 --> 05:46:29,040
that today can still be used with the
6730
05:46:27,120 --> 05:46:31,120
modern ones.
6731
05:46:29,040 --> 05:46:34,638
the brick that was the foundation of a
6732
05:46:31,120 --> 05:46:38,080
company that still makes history today.
6733
05:46:34,638 --> 05:46:40,080
That same year, Lego filed the patent.
6734
05:46:38,080 --> 05:46:42,480
They had something worth protecting, and
6735
05:46:40,080 --> 05:46:45,520
Oy knew that sooner or later, it would
6736
05:46:42,480 --> 05:46:49,200
be replicated.
6737
05:46:45,520 --> 05:46:52,878
It was January the 28th, 1958 when the
6738
05:46:49,200 --> 05:46:55,600
patent was filed. Later that year, Ole
6739
05:46:52,878 --> 05:46:58,798
Christensen passed away.
6740
05:46:55,600 --> 05:47:02,680
And sadly, he never lived to see how far
6741
05:46:58,798 --> 05:47:02,680
his brick would travel.
6742
05:47:10,160 --> 05:47:15,680
After his father died, Godfred Kirk
6743
05:47:12,798 --> 05:47:17,920
Christensen stepped in. He wasn't
6744
05:47:15,680 --> 05:47:20,878
inheriting the company. He was
6745
05:47:17,920 --> 05:47:23,440
inheriting a philosophy, one he had been
6746
05:47:20,878 --> 05:47:26,080
raised with. His father wasn't around
6747
05:47:23,440 --> 05:47:28,160
anymore, but the original spirit of Lego
6748
05:47:26,080 --> 05:47:30,160
lived on in the second Christensen
6749
05:47:28,160 --> 05:47:32,480
generation.
6750
05:47:30,160 --> 05:47:34,638
But he also had something to add.
6751
05:47:32,480 --> 05:47:38,000
Godfred believed Lego should be more
6752
05:47:34,638 --> 05:47:40,320
than toys. It should be a system. A
6753
05:47:38,000 --> 05:47:44,480
system where every piece connected with
6754
05:47:40,320 --> 05:47:46,638
every other piece across every set. This
6755
05:47:44,480 --> 05:47:48,160
created a language of creativity and
6756
05:47:46,638 --> 05:47:51,360
possibilities.
6757
05:47:48,160 --> 05:47:53,840
And a single idea changed everything.
6758
05:47:51,360 --> 05:47:57,760
Suddenly, Lego wasn't a collection of
6759
05:47:53,840 --> 05:48:00,240
toys, but an entire universe.
6760
05:47:57,760 --> 05:48:02,240
The company began to grow far beyond its
6761
05:48:00,240 --> 05:48:05,920
original frontiers.
6762
05:48:02,240 --> 05:48:10,718
During the 1960s and '7s, Lego expanded
6763
05:48:05,920 --> 05:48:13,520
across Europe, Germany, Sweden, the UK.
6764
05:48:10,718 --> 05:48:16,958
Bund, once a small village, became a
6765
05:48:13,520 --> 05:48:19,600
global hub of play. Lego then built its
6766
05:48:16,958 --> 05:48:21,760
own airport, factories, and distribution
6767
05:48:19,600 --> 05:48:24,480
centers. In the world of construction
6768
05:48:21,760 --> 05:48:27,200
toys, we know that Lego isn't the only
6769
05:48:24,480 --> 05:48:31,680
brand around.
6770
05:48:27,200 --> 05:48:34,320
What Lego provides is a quality product.
6771
05:48:31,680 --> 05:48:37,200
Maybe one part is wrong for every 10,000
6772
05:48:34,320 --> 05:48:39,920
or 100,000 items. And if you are missing
6773
05:48:37,200 --> 05:48:42,080
an item from a box, or if it is faulty,
6774
05:48:39,920 --> 05:48:43,600
the company's after sales service will
6775
05:48:42,080 --> 05:48:47,000
not question the fact that you are
6776
05:48:43,600 --> 05:48:47,000
missing a part.
6777
05:48:47,760 --> 05:48:54,080
And then the magic happened.
6778
05:48:51,440 --> 05:48:58,320
LEGO introduced something no toy company
6779
05:48:54,080 --> 05:49:02,080
had done at scale. Fully themed worlds.
6780
05:48:58,320 --> 05:49:03,440
Space. Town. Castles.
6781
05:49:02,080 --> 05:49:05,920
Children weren't just building
6782
05:49:03,440 --> 05:49:07,760
structures anymore. They were building
6783
05:49:05,920 --> 05:49:11,360
stories.
6784
05:49:07,760 --> 05:49:13,200
In 1978, LEGO released its most iconic
6785
05:49:11,360 --> 05:49:14,878
invention since the brick, the
6786
05:49:13,200 --> 05:49:17,920
minifigure.
6787
05:49:14,878 --> 05:49:22,000
It had a simple face, hands shaped like
6788
05:49:17,920 --> 05:49:24,480
a sea and feet made to stand on studs. A
6789
05:49:22,000 --> 05:49:27,440
tiny character that let kids project
6790
05:49:24,480 --> 05:49:30,480
themselves into entire universes.
6791
05:49:27,440 --> 05:49:34,558
Stories now had heroes and Lego had a
6792
05:49:30,480 --> 05:49:36,480
heartbeat. In the late 1970s, Lego was
6793
05:49:34,558 --> 05:49:40,558
already run by the third Christensen
6794
05:49:36,480 --> 05:49:42,718
generation. Ole's grandson killed began
6795
05:49:40,558 --> 05:49:46,240
shaping the company into the global
6796
05:49:42,718 --> 05:49:48,718
powerhouse we know today. He did so by
6797
05:49:46,240 --> 05:49:51,440
creating more sophisticated lines,
6798
05:49:48,718 --> 05:49:53,760
bringing in new universes, technic
6799
05:49:51,440 --> 05:49:57,120
brought mechanics, pirates brought
6800
05:49:53,760 --> 05:50:00,000
adventure, and trains brought motion.
6801
05:49:57,120 --> 05:50:02,958
By the late 20th century, the global toy
6802
05:50:00,000 --> 05:50:05,760
market was becoming massive. Tens of
6803
05:50:02,958 --> 05:50:08,160
billions of dollars a year worth.
6804
05:50:05,760 --> 05:50:10,958
The United States spent more on toys
6805
05:50:08,160 --> 05:50:13,840
than any country on Earth. And China
6806
05:50:10,958 --> 05:50:15,920
produced most of them, nearly 3/4 of the
6807
05:50:13,840 --> 05:50:18,798
world's total.
6808
05:50:15,920 --> 05:50:24,760
In this booming landscape, Lego wasn't
6809
05:50:18,798 --> 05:50:24,760
just another toy. It was the toy.
6810
05:50:29,360 --> 05:50:35,120
By the late 1990s, Lego was flying high.
6811
05:50:33,200 --> 05:50:37,360
It had become one of the most admired
6812
05:50:35,120 --> 05:50:39,520
companies in Europe. A creative
6813
05:50:37,360 --> 05:50:42,000
powerhouse built on the philosophy of
6814
05:50:39,520 --> 05:50:44,000
imagination and creation. We're not
6815
05:50:42,000 --> 05:50:45,760
focused only on childhood, but on
6816
05:50:44,000 --> 05:50:48,000
something that has quite literally built
6817
05:50:45,760 --> 05:50:50,240
us, pun intended, shaping our
6818
05:50:48,000 --> 05:50:52,878
personalities through Lego from an early
6819
05:50:50,240 --> 05:50:57,200
age. Those memories became a foundation
6820
05:50:52,878 --> 05:50:59,120
we've kept building on over time.
6821
05:50:57,200 --> 05:51:01,040
That's why exhibitions like this bring
6822
05:50:59,120 --> 05:51:04,000
us straight back to childhood. The
6823
05:51:01,040 --> 05:51:06,080
audience here is very diverse, but once
6824
05:51:04,000 --> 05:51:08,320
people walk in, they all become the boy
6825
05:51:06,080 --> 05:51:11,280
or girl they once were.
6826
05:51:08,320 --> 05:51:13,600
>> But it's not all gold that glitters.
6827
05:51:11,280 --> 05:51:16,558
Under the surface, something dangerous
6828
05:51:13,600 --> 05:51:18,798
was creeping in. The toy market was
6829
05:51:16,558 --> 05:51:20,798
changing fast. Children were spending
6830
05:51:18,798 --> 05:51:23,200
more and more time with video games and
6831
05:51:20,798 --> 05:51:25,440
early computer entertainment.
6832
05:51:23,200 --> 05:51:27,600
Sony's PlayStation, Nintendo, and
6833
05:51:25,440 --> 05:51:30,958
Hasbro's electronic toys were capturing
6834
05:51:27,600 --> 05:51:35,360
attention. And LEGO, determined not to
6835
05:51:30,958 --> 05:51:37,840
fall behind, expanded too far, too fast.
6836
05:51:35,360 --> 05:51:40,000
Throughout the 1990s, LEGO began
6837
05:51:37,840 --> 05:51:42,878
introducing thousands of completely new
6838
05:51:40,000 --> 05:51:45,840
pieces, specialized parts that not only
6839
05:51:42,878 --> 05:51:49,600
worked in one set, a single year could
6840
05:51:45,840 --> 05:51:51,760
bring more than 350 new designs, each of
6841
05:51:49,600 --> 05:51:54,240
them costing tens of thousands of
6842
05:51:51,760 --> 05:51:56,400
dollars in steel machining and precision
6843
05:51:54,240 --> 05:51:58,320
engineering.
6844
05:51:56,400 --> 05:52:00,638
In 2002,
6845
05:51:58,320 --> 05:52:03,520
Lego had more than 12,000 active
6846
05:52:00,638 --> 05:52:06,000
elements. The system of play, once
6847
05:52:03,520 --> 05:52:09,280
simple and universal, was becoming
6848
05:52:06,000 --> 05:52:12,320
chaotic and difficult to follow. Lego
6849
05:52:09,280 --> 05:52:14,480
also tried becoming a lifestyle brand.
6850
05:52:12,320 --> 05:52:17,600
New ventures appeared everywhere.
6851
05:52:14,480 --> 05:52:19,840
Clothing lines, theme parks, homegoods,
6852
05:52:17,600 --> 05:52:21,520
cartoon series, even watches and
6853
05:52:19,840 --> 05:52:23,440
sneakers.
6854
05:52:21,520 --> 05:52:26,080
But these projects drained resources
6855
05:52:23,440 --> 05:52:31,520
without reinforcing the core product.
6856
05:52:26,080 --> 05:52:34,000
the brick. And between 1999 and 2003,
6857
05:52:31,520 --> 05:52:36,080
LEGO sales collapsed.
6858
05:52:34,000 --> 05:52:38,798
During these years, the company went
6859
05:52:36,080 --> 05:52:42,000
from doubledigit growth to struggling.
6860
05:52:38,798 --> 05:52:45,360
And by 2003, the company was losing the
6861
05:52:42,000 --> 05:52:48,240
equivalent of $1 million a day. In a
6862
05:52:45,360 --> 05:52:52,080
global toy market still worth more than
6863
05:52:48,240 --> 05:52:54,480
$70 billion US at the time, Lego, once
6864
05:52:52,080 --> 05:52:56,958
the king of the toy box, was only a few
6865
05:52:54,480 --> 05:53:00,000
steps away from bankruptcy.
6866
05:52:56,958 --> 05:53:04,320
Times were dark, but a spark of genius
6867
05:53:00,000 --> 05:53:06,638
appeared. In 1999, LEGO signed its first
6868
05:53:04,320 --> 05:53:08,480
ever licensing deal with no other than
6869
05:53:06,638 --> 05:53:11,520
Lucasfilm.
6870
05:53:08,480 --> 05:53:14,798
The timing was perfect. Star Wars
6871
05:53:11,520 --> 05:53:17,600
Episode 1 was about to hit theaters.
6872
05:53:14,798 --> 05:53:20,558
Hype was global and the first Lego Star
6873
05:53:17,600 --> 05:53:23,840
Wars sets were instant hits, not just
6874
05:53:20,558 --> 05:53:25,920
with children, with adults. Collectors
6875
05:53:23,840 --> 05:53:28,000
lined up to buy the X-wing, the
6876
05:53:25,920 --> 05:53:31,280
Snowspeeder, or the first Millennium
6877
05:53:28,000 --> 05:53:34,160
Falcon. For the first time in LEGO's
6878
05:53:31,280 --> 05:53:36,958
history, adults, including those in
6879
05:53:34,160 --> 05:53:37,840
their 30s and 40s, were buying sets for
6880
05:53:36,958 --> 05:53:39,760
themselves.
6881
05:53:37,840 --> 05:53:42,480
>> The adult fan of Lego community is
6882
05:53:39,760 --> 05:53:44,558
getting bigger. This is because Lego is
6883
05:53:42,480 --> 05:53:47,120
not the same as it was 20 or 30 years
6884
05:53:44,558 --> 05:53:49,360
ago.
6885
05:53:47,120 --> 05:53:51,280
Before, Lego was only seen as a toy to
6886
05:53:49,360 --> 05:53:54,280
play with when it was cold and you were
6887
05:53:51,280 --> 05:53:54,280
indoors.
6888
05:53:54,558 --> 05:53:59,440
Today, Lego is much more than a toy.
6889
05:53:57,040 --> 05:54:01,760
It's used to create logos to design
6890
05:53:59,440 --> 05:54:04,718
dynamic group activities. And it also
6891
05:54:01,760 --> 05:54:06,958
represents a shift in how we see it.
6892
05:54:04,718 --> 05:54:09,360
years ago, if you said you played with
6893
05:54:06,958 --> 05:54:11,840
Lego or built Lego, you almost had to
6894
05:54:09,360 --> 05:54:13,600
explain yourself that you were at home
6895
05:54:11,840 --> 05:54:16,400
playing with little figures making up
6896
05:54:13,600 --> 05:54:18,240
battles. What we do today is different.
6897
05:54:16,400 --> 05:54:22,000
We come together as a community of
6898
05:54:18,240 --> 05:54:23,840
adults, and Lego has recognized that.
6899
05:54:22,000 --> 05:54:26,160
That's why more and more products are
6900
05:54:23,840 --> 05:54:28,798
now designed specifically for adults,
6901
05:54:26,160 --> 05:54:31,798
more complex to build, and also more
6902
05:54:28,798 --> 05:54:31,798
expensive.
6903
05:54:32,958 --> 05:54:38,718
This kid demographic would later become
6904
05:54:35,680 --> 05:54:41,600
one of LEGO's most profitable segments.
6905
05:54:38,718 --> 05:54:44,798
More licenses followed Harry Potter,
6906
05:54:41,600 --> 05:54:46,798
Spider-Man, Batman, Indiana Jones, and
6907
05:54:44,798 --> 05:54:48,480
later the newest Marvel Cinematic
6908
05:54:46,798 --> 05:54:50,080
Universe.
6909
05:54:48,480 --> 05:54:53,520
Even though LEGO learned that
6910
05:54:50,080 --> 05:54:56,798
storytelling sells, in 2004, losses were
6911
05:54:53,520 --> 05:54:59,280
mounting and survival was uncertain.
6912
05:54:56,798 --> 05:55:00,798
And then the company made a radical
6913
05:54:59,280 --> 05:55:03,120
decision.
6914
05:55:00,798 --> 05:55:05,520
For the first time in its history, the
6915
05:55:03,120 --> 05:55:09,200
company appointed a CEO from outside the
6916
05:55:05,520 --> 05:55:11,680
Christensen family, Jurgen Victor,
6917
05:55:09,200 --> 05:55:15,520
a 35-year-old former McKenzie
6918
05:55:11,680 --> 05:55:19,760
consultant. He was calm, precise,
6919
05:55:15,520 --> 05:55:23,760
analytical, and brutally honest. His
6920
05:55:19,760 --> 05:55:26,240
diagnosis was simple. Lego had forgotten
6921
05:55:23,760 --> 05:55:28,558
what made it Lego.
6922
05:55:26,240 --> 05:55:30,798
Kutto cut the number of unique elements
6923
05:55:28,558 --> 05:55:33,200
by nearly 50%.
6924
05:55:30,798 --> 05:55:36,400
He sold off the theme parks. He shut
6925
05:55:33,200 --> 05:55:38,558
down unprofitable production facilities.
6926
05:55:36,400 --> 05:55:41,200
He centralized supply chains,
6927
05:55:38,558 --> 05:55:43,520
standardized materials, and brought back
6928
05:55:41,200 --> 05:55:46,320
discipline to the system. But more
6929
05:55:43,520 --> 05:55:49,878
important, he put the bread back at the
6930
05:55:46,320 --> 05:55:49,878
center of the company.
6931
05:55:51,520 --> 05:55:56,480
This turnaround didn't happen in
6932
05:55:53,360 --> 05:55:59,760
isolation. The global toy industry was
6933
05:55:56,480 --> 05:56:02,320
undergoing a seismic change. China was
6934
05:55:59,760 --> 05:56:04,878
producing nearly 75% of the world's
6935
05:56:02,320 --> 05:56:08,000
toys, being the largest manufacturing
6936
05:56:04,878 --> 05:56:10,080
consolidation in toy history.
6937
05:56:08,000 --> 05:56:12,638
Meanwhile, the United States had become
6938
05:56:10,080 --> 05:56:14,878
the single largest consumer, responsible
6939
05:56:12,638 --> 05:56:17,878
for nearly onethird of the global toy
6940
05:56:14,878 --> 05:56:17,878
spending.
6941
05:56:18,160 --> 05:56:24,240
By 2005, the toy market was worth close
6942
05:56:21,760 --> 05:56:27,680
to $80 billion US.
6943
05:56:24,240 --> 05:56:30,480
But it was brutally competitive as well.
6944
05:56:27,680 --> 05:56:33,040
Seasonality was extreme. Nearly half of
6945
05:56:30,480 --> 05:56:36,638
the annual toy sales occurred in just 3
6946
05:56:33,040 --> 05:56:39,680
months from October to December.
6947
05:56:36,638 --> 05:56:41,840
Companies lived or died by Christmas.
6948
05:56:39,680 --> 05:56:44,638
Mattel was battling declining Barbie
6949
05:56:41,840 --> 05:56:46,080
sales. Hasbro was betting its future on
6950
05:56:44,638 --> 05:56:47,680
Transformers and board game
6951
05:56:46,080 --> 05:56:49,440
reinventions.
6952
05:56:47,680 --> 05:56:52,400
Electronics were eating market share
6953
05:56:49,440 --> 05:56:56,878
across every age group. In this
6954
05:56:52,400 --> 05:57:02,760
scenario, Lego rebuilt and refocused and
6955
05:56:56,878 --> 05:57:02,760
then began rising above all of them.
6956
05:57:06,000 --> 05:57:13,600
Between 2008 and 2015, LEGO entered a
6957
05:57:10,160 --> 05:57:16,480
new era, a renaissance driven by design,
6958
05:57:13,600 --> 05:57:18,638
storytelling, digital engagement, and
6959
05:57:16,480 --> 05:57:20,558
adult passion.
6960
05:57:18,638 --> 05:57:23,440
The company launched the ultimate
6961
05:57:20,558 --> 05:57:26,958
collector series, producing the largest,
6962
05:57:23,440 --> 05:57:29,200
most detailed models in toy history.
6963
05:57:26,958 --> 05:57:32,400
LEGO architecture brought landmarks to
6964
05:57:29,200 --> 05:57:34,958
coffee tables. Modular buildings turned
6965
05:57:32,400 --> 05:57:37,120
living rooms into miniature cities, and
6966
05:57:34,958 --> 05:57:40,240
adults were no longer hiding their Lego
6967
05:57:37,120 --> 05:57:42,638
hobby, but embracing it. My story with
6968
05:57:40,240 --> 05:57:44,878
Lego began in the early '9s when I was a
6969
05:57:42,638 --> 05:57:47,040
small child.
6970
05:57:44,878 --> 05:57:48,878
I started playing, but then I stopped
6971
05:57:47,040 --> 05:57:50,558
for a while.
6972
05:57:48,878 --> 05:57:52,638
This is what most of us want to do when
6973
05:57:50,558 --> 05:57:57,240
we are teenagers, to do other hobbies
6974
05:57:52,638 --> 05:57:57,240
and spend less time playing with Lego.
6975
05:57:57,840 --> 05:58:03,200
After that, when I was in my early 20s,
6976
05:57:59,760 --> 05:58:05,280
I started collecting Lego. I met people
6977
05:58:03,200 --> 05:58:07,840
from the Valencian community and founded
6978
05:58:05,280 --> 05:58:09,760
Valere.
6979
05:58:07,840 --> 05:58:12,320
That eventually led me to a television
6980
05:58:09,760 --> 05:58:14,480
show where I took part and won. From
6981
05:58:12,320 --> 05:58:17,958
there, companies began approaching me to
6982
05:58:14,480 --> 05:58:17,958
develop projects.
6983
05:58:19,360 --> 05:58:22,958
At first, this hadn't even occurred to
6984
05:58:21,280 --> 05:58:25,440
me,
6985
05:58:22,958 --> 05:58:27,680
but I started to see a growing demand.
6986
05:58:25,440 --> 05:58:29,840
Whether it was building a corporate kit,
6987
05:58:27,680 --> 05:58:33,120
like a transport company's truck, or
6988
05:58:29,840 --> 05:58:34,878
even a company's logistics headquarters,
6989
05:58:33,120 --> 05:58:36,878
this market opened up a professional
6990
05:58:34,878 --> 05:58:38,878
path for me.
6991
05:58:36,878 --> 05:58:42,320
It supports me financially, but more
6992
05:58:38,878 --> 05:58:44,240
importantly, it's deeply rewarding.
6993
05:58:42,320 --> 05:58:45,920
Many of these projects challenge me to
6994
05:58:44,240 --> 05:58:47,440
build things I would never choose on my
6995
05:58:45,920 --> 05:58:50,160
own.
6996
05:58:47,440 --> 05:58:52,080
But once a challenge is set, build this,
6997
05:58:50,160 --> 05:58:54,878
my mind immediately starts collecting
6998
05:58:52,080 --> 05:58:56,798
ideas, figuring out how to shape them
6999
05:58:54,878 --> 05:59:00,680
and bring the project to life in the
7000
05:58:56,798 --> 05:59:00,680
best possible way.
7001
05:59:07,200 --> 05:59:14,400
fan events, engineering cups, a global
7002
05:59:10,400 --> 05:59:18,000
movement emerged. By 2014, adults
7003
05:59:14,400 --> 05:59:20,480
accounted for nearly 1/3 of Lego sales.
7004
05:59:18,000 --> 05:59:22,718
>> To anyone who thinks Lego is only for
7005
05:59:20,480 --> 05:59:24,240
children, I'd say come and see the
7006
05:59:22,718 --> 05:59:26,160
exhibition.
7007
05:59:24,240 --> 05:59:28,878
See what we're capable of creating with
7008
05:59:26,160 --> 05:59:32,878
Lego pieces and how imagination develops
7009
05:59:28,878 --> 05:59:35,040
in both children and adults.
7010
05:59:32,878 --> 05:59:37,920
Children work within certain limits and
7011
05:59:35,040 --> 05:59:40,558
see things differently, but adults with
7012
05:59:37,920 --> 05:59:43,200
a wider range of colors, shapes, and
7013
05:59:40,558 --> 05:59:46,400
ways to use the pieces can explore just
7014
05:59:43,200 --> 05:59:48,400
how much is possible.
7015
05:59:46,400 --> 05:59:51,280
>> It was a radical shift in the economics
7016
05:59:48,400 --> 05:59:53,120
of play. And then came the cultural
7017
05:59:51,280 --> 05:59:56,160
explosion.
7018
05:59:53,120 --> 05:59:57,680
In 2014, The Lego Movie shattered
7019
05:59:56,160 --> 06:00:01,040
expectations,
7020
05:59:57,680 --> 06:00:02,638
earning nearly$500 million US at the box
7021
06:00:01,040 --> 06:00:05,520
office.
7022
06:00:02,638 --> 06:00:09,120
What started as a toy was now pop
7023
06:00:05,520 --> 06:00:11,280
culture. By the mid 2010s,
7024
06:00:09,120 --> 06:00:14,240
Lego was the world's most valuable toy
7025
06:00:11,280 --> 06:00:16,958
company, even surpassing Mattel, Hasbro,
7026
06:00:14,240 --> 06:00:19,440
and every other competitor.
7027
06:00:16,958 --> 06:00:22,878
The brick that started it all was no
7028
06:00:19,440 --> 06:00:25,878
longer just a product. It was a global
7029
06:00:22,878 --> 06:00:25,878
icon.
7030
06:00:27,840 --> 06:00:32,160
The LEGO Group stands today as one of
7031
06:00:30,160 --> 06:00:34,160
the most efficient, profitable, and
7032
06:00:32,160 --> 06:00:36,638
culturally influential toy companies on
7033
06:00:34,160 --> 06:00:38,958
Earth. Its factories run with near
7034
06:00:36,638 --> 06:00:41,120
perfect precision.
7035
06:00:38,958 --> 06:00:44,240
Its design teams develop thousands of
7036
06:00:41,120 --> 06:00:46,240
prototypes each year. Its supply chain
7037
06:00:44,240 --> 06:00:49,040
delivers billions of bricks that must
7038
06:00:46,240 --> 06:00:50,958
all fit together flawlessly across
7039
06:00:49,040 --> 06:00:53,600
decades.
7040
06:00:50,958 --> 06:00:57,680
In a global toy market worth roughly
7041
06:00:53,600 --> 06:01:01,920
$120 billion a year, Lego commands
7042
06:00:57,680 --> 06:01:04,878
nearly 9% of all worldwide toy sales. No
7043
06:01:01,920 --> 06:01:07,680
other toy brand, not Barbie, not Marvel
7044
06:01:04,878 --> 06:01:09,840
figures, not Nintendo merchandise,
7045
06:01:07,680 --> 06:01:13,600
maintains such consistency across
7046
06:01:09,840 --> 06:01:15,600
continents, genders, and generations.
7047
06:01:13,600 --> 06:01:18,718
And unlike most toy companies that
7048
06:01:15,600 --> 06:01:20,080
outsource manufacturing, LEGO controls a
7049
06:01:18,718 --> 06:01:23,280
significant portion of its own
7050
06:01:20,080 --> 06:01:25,840
production with major hubs in Denmark,
7051
06:01:23,280 --> 06:01:27,840
Hungary, Mexico, China, and the Czech
7052
06:01:25,840 --> 06:01:30,558
Republic.
7053
06:01:27,840 --> 06:01:33,120
This vertical integration reduces risk,
7054
06:01:30,558 --> 06:01:35,040
stabilizes quality, and protects one of
7055
06:01:33,120 --> 06:01:38,320
the most important values in the
7056
06:01:35,040 --> 06:01:40,558
company's DNA, precision.
7057
06:01:38,320 --> 06:01:42,958
Every Lego brick must be manufactured
7058
06:01:40,558 --> 06:01:46,080
with tolerances thinner than a strand of
7059
06:01:42,958 --> 06:01:49,600
hair. If the clutch is too tight, the
7060
06:01:46,080 --> 06:01:52,718
model breaks. If it's too loose, towers
7061
06:01:49,600 --> 06:01:56,160
collapse. Across billions of pieces,
7062
06:01:52,718 --> 06:01:59,600
perfection is not an ambition. It is an
7063
06:01:56,160 --> 06:02:01,600
engineering reality for LEGO.
7064
06:01:59,600 --> 06:02:03,760
This level of detail gives the company
7065
06:02:01,600 --> 06:02:05,360
one of the highest brand trust ratings
7066
06:02:03,760 --> 06:02:07,760
in the world.
7067
06:02:05,360 --> 06:02:10,240
Parents know the bricks will last.
7068
06:02:07,760 --> 06:02:12,480
Adults know the sets will impress.
7069
06:02:10,240 --> 06:02:14,160
Collectors know the investment will hold
7070
06:02:12,480 --> 06:02:16,400
value.
7071
06:02:14,160 --> 06:02:19,120
The modern toy market is a machine of
7072
06:02:16,400 --> 06:02:20,878
impulse, tradition, celebration, and
7073
06:02:19,120 --> 06:02:24,480
nostalgia.
7074
06:02:20,878 --> 06:02:28,320
In 2025, global spending on toys
7075
06:02:24,480 --> 06:02:31,360
approaches 120 billion, nearly double
7076
06:02:28,320 --> 06:02:33,120
what it was two decades earlier. The
7077
06:02:31,360 --> 06:02:35,680
United States remains the world's
7078
06:02:33,120 --> 06:02:38,798
largest consumer, accounting for roughly
7079
06:02:35,680 --> 06:02:40,878
onethird of global sales. A typical
7080
06:02:38,798 --> 06:02:44,558
American household with children may
7081
06:02:40,878 --> 06:02:47,520
spend $300 to $400 per child per year on
7082
06:02:44,558 --> 06:02:49,840
toys. This is more than five times the
7083
06:02:47,520 --> 06:02:52,320
global average.
7084
06:02:49,840 --> 06:02:54,558
Europe forms the second largest block
7085
06:02:52,320 --> 06:02:57,440
with strong purchasing power in Germany,
7086
06:02:54,558 --> 06:02:59,840
the United Kingdom, and France.
7087
06:02:57,440 --> 06:03:02,320
Asia-Pacific is rapidly growing,
7088
06:02:59,840 --> 06:03:05,200
especially in China, South Korea, and
7089
06:03:02,320 --> 06:03:07,920
Japan, driven by rising middle classes
7090
06:03:05,200 --> 06:03:10,320
and urban lifestyles.
7091
06:03:07,920 --> 06:03:13,600
But the most important shift of the last
7092
06:03:10,320 --> 06:03:16,600
decade is not geographic, it is
7093
06:03:13,600 --> 06:03:16,600
demographic.
7094
06:03:20,718 --> 06:03:25,760
Adults, once considered irrelevant to
7095
06:03:23,440 --> 06:03:28,718
the toy industry, are now one of the
7096
06:03:25,760 --> 06:03:31,840
most powerful forces. This growing
7097
06:03:28,718 --> 06:03:35,200
segment, commonly called the kid market,
7098
06:03:31,840 --> 06:03:38,080
now represents between 25 and 30% of all
7099
06:03:35,200 --> 06:03:40,558
toy purchases worldwide.
7100
06:03:38,080 --> 06:03:43,680
Adults buy toys for nostalgia, for
7101
06:03:40,558 --> 06:03:45,200
stress relief, for display, for
7102
06:03:43,680 --> 06:03:47,440
identity.
7103
06:03:45,200 --> 06:03:48,558
Lego is the undisputed champion of this
7104
06:03:47,440 --> 06:03:50,958
movement.
7105
06:03:48,558 --> 06:03:54,280
>> Unlike other hobbies, Lego gives me a
7106
06:03:50,958 --> 06:03:54,280
sense of calm.
7107
06:03:55,440 --> 06:04:00,000
It lets me take ideas from my mind,
7108
06:03:57,760 --> 06:04:03,360
bring them to life, think them through,
7109
06:04:00,000 --> 06:04:06,240
and simply enjoy the process. Right now,
7110
06:04:03,360 --> 06:04:08,558
I'm trying to instill that in my son to
7111
06:04:06,240 --> 06:04:10,638
enjoy himself, to learn, to see colors
7112
06:04:08,558 --> 06:04:14,080
and shapes, and to understand that with
7113
06:04:10,638 --> 06:04:17,440
imagination, anything is possible.
7114
06:04:14,080 --> 06:04:20,000
Its premium sets, Technic Hypercars,
7115
06:04:17,440 --> 06:04:22,718
Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series,
7116
06:04:20,000 --> 06:04:25,040
iconic landmarks, regularly exceed
7117
06:04:22,718 --> 06:04:27,280
prices of $30,500,
7118
06:04:25,040 --> 06:04:30,000
even $800.
7119
06:04:27,280 --> 06:04:31,840
They sell out within hours. They hold
7120
06:04:30,000 --> 06:04:33,360
aftermarket values like fine
7121
06:04:31,840 --> 06:04:35,440
collectibles.
7122
06:04:33,360 --> 06:04:37,360
This adult segment has reshaped the
7123
06:04:35,440 --> 06:04:40,400
entire financial landscape of the
7124
06:04:37,360 --> 06:04:43,120
company. It provides stability when
7125
06:04:40,400 --> 06:04:46,320
children's trends shift. It creates
7126
06:04:43,120 --> 06:04:48,480
recurring revenue from loyal fans and it
7127
06:04:46,320 --> 06:04:51,440
strengthens LEGO's position as a
7128
06:04:48,480 --> 06:04:54,400
crossgenerational brand, something few
7129
06:04:51,440 --> 06:04:56,638
toy companies have ever achieved.
7130
06:04:54,400 --> 06:04:59,680
Seasonality still dictates much of the
7131
06:04:56,638 --> 06:05:01,920
global toy market. Every year, nearly
7132
06:04:59,680 --> 06:05:05,280
half of all toy sales occur between
7133
06:05:01,920 --> 06:05:08,160
October and December. Companies live or
7134
06:05:05,280 --> 06:05:11,440
die by holiday forecasting, inventory
7135
06:05:08,160 --> 06:05:14,240
strategy, and shipment timing. But LEGO
7136
06:05:11,440 --> 06:05:17,040
has become the exception. Adult
7137
06:05:14,240 --> 06:05:19,440
collectors buy year round. Digital
7138
06:05:17,040 --> 06:05:22,480
experiences drive sales outside the
7139
06:05:19,440 --> 06:05:25,840
holiday season. Licensed launches create
7140
06:05:22,480 --> 06:05:28,480
anticipation even in slow quarters.
7141
06:05:25,840 --> 06:05:30,480
LEGO has effectively freed itself or at
7142
06:05:28,480 --> 06:05:32,558
least partially from the seasonal
7143
06:05:30,480 --> 06:05:35,280
dependency that has defined the toy
7144
06:05:32,558 --> 06:05:38,240
industry for over a century.
7145
06:05:35,280 --> 06:05:40,958
The brick is physical, tangible,
7146
06:05:38,240 --> 06:05:43,840
mechanical. But LEGO's success in the
7147
06:05:40,958 --> 06:05:48,638
21st century extends into digital
7148
06:05:43,840 --> 06:05:50,958
worlds. Star Wars, Batman, Marvel. These
7149
06:05:48,638 --> 06:05:54,240
games defined an entire generation of
7150
06:05:50,958 --> 06:05:56,798
familyfriendly titles. They sold tens of
7151
06:05:54,240 --> 06:06:00,000
millions of copies. They introduced
7152
06:05:56,798 --> 06:06:03,520
humor, storytelling, and simplicity to a
7153
06:06:00,000 --> 06:06:05,600
medium often dominated by complexity.
7154
06:06:03,520 --> 06:06:08,638
For many children born after the year
7155
06:06:05,600 --> 06:06:12,480
2000, Lego was not discovered in a toy
7156
06:06:08,638 --> 06:06:15,280
box, but on a screen. The cinematic leap
7157
06:06:12,480 --> 06:06:18,160
came in 2014 when the Lego movie
7158
06:06:15,280 --> 06:06:20,958
premiered to global acclaim. He turned
7159
06:06:18,160 --> 06:06:23,600
nearly half a billion dollars. Most
7160
06:06:20,958 --> 06:06:26,958
importantly, it reframed Lego as a
7161
06:06:23,600 --> 06:06:29,280
cultural idea, not a product. The film
7162
06:06:26,958 --> 06:06:32,558
taught a global audience that creativity
7163
06:06:29,280 --> 06:06:34,638
matters, that imperfection is beautiful,
7164
06:06:32,558 --> 06:06:38,400
that building and rebuilding are not
7165
06:06:34,638 --> 06:06:41,440
failures, they are the process of play.
7166
06:06:38,400 --> 06:06:43,680
Lego Batman expanded the concept. Lego
7167
06:06:41,440 --> 06:06:46,958
Ninjago created an entirely new
7168
06:06:43,680 --> 06:06:49,120
generation of fans, and Lego Masters on
7169
06:06:46,958 --> 06:06:51,280
television turned building into a
7170
06:06:49,120 --> 06:06:54,080
competitive art form.
7171
06:06:51,280 --> 06:06:57,360
The brand had moved beyond toys, beyond
7172
06:06:54,080 --> 06:06:59,920
stories, beyond bricks. It had become
7173
06:06:57,360 --> 06:07:02,920
part of the cultural grammar of the 21st
7174
06:06:59,920 --> 06:07:02,920
century.
7175
06:07:06,558 --> 06:07:10,958
Long before STEM became a global
7176
06:07:08,638 --> 06:07:13,920
movement, Lego was already teaching
7177
06:07:10,958 --> 06:07:17,600
children how to think like engineers.
7178
06:07:13,920 --> 06:07:20,080
In the 1990s, Lego Mindstorms introduced
7179
06:07:17,600 --> 06:07:24,558
programmable robotics to students around
7180
06:07:20,080 --> 06:07:27,040
the world. Later sets, we do Spike Prime
7181
06:07:24,558 --> 06:07:30,718
Boost brought coding, sensors, and
7182
06:07:27,040 --> 06:07:33,120
motors into classrooms and homes. Today,
7183
06:07:30,718 --> 06:07:35,360
LEGO Education works with governments,
7184
06:07:33,120 --> 06:07:37,120
schools, and universities to bring
7185
06:07:35,360 --> 06:07:40,480
hands-on learning to millions of
7186
06:07:37,120 --> 06:07:43,120
students. The philosophy is simple.
7187
06:07:40,480 --> 06:07:45,440
Children learn best through play. This
7188
06:07:43,120 --> 06:07:48,718
approach shapes future engineers,
7189
06:07:45,440 --> 06:07:50,400
designers, and problem solvers. It helps
7190
06:07:48,718 --> 06:07:53,200
children experiment in ways that
7191
06:07:50,400 --> 06:07:56,160
textbooks cannot. And it continues
7192
06:07:53,200 --> 06:07:58,240
Olirk's belief that play is not a
7193
06:07:56,160 --> 06:08:00,958
distraction from learning, but the
7194
06:07:58,240 --> 06:08:02,958
foundation of it.
7195
06:08:00,958 --> 06:08:03,760
In a world increasingly focused on
7196
06:08:02,958 --> 06:08:05,840
sustainability,
7197
06:08:03,760 --> 06:08:07,760
>> from my experience, what makes Lego
7198
06:08:05,840 --> 06:08:10,638
different from other construction toys
7199
06:08:07,760 --> 06:08:12,878
is its growing commitment to inclusion.
7200
06:08:10,638 --> 06:08:14,320
In recent years, LEGO has actively
7201
06:08:12,878 --> 06:08:16,480
embraced people with different
7202
06:08:14,320 --> 06:08:18,480
abilities. For example, by including
7203
06:08:16,480 --> 06:08:21,120
figures in wheelchairs and releasing
7204
06:08:18,480 --> 06:08:22,958
sets in Braille. These are things most
7205
06:08:21,120 --> 06:08:25,120
other brands simply don't offer, but
7206
06:08:22,958 --> 06:08:27,280
LEGO does.
7207
06:08:25,120 --> 06:08:29,280
In addition, LEGO is strongly committed
7208
06:08:27,280 --> 06:08:30,878
to the environment.
7209
06:08:29,280 --> 06:08:33,120
They're producing more and more pieces
7210
06:08:30,878 --> 06:08:34,958
using recycled plastic and replacing
7211
06:08:33,120 --> 06:08:37,840
plastic packaging with paper to reduce
7212
06:08:34,958 --> 06:08:40,400
waste, something other brands simply
7213
06:08:37,840 --> 06:08:43,520
don't do.
7214
06:08:40,400 --> 06:08:46,000
Lego faces a unique challenge. Its
7215
06:08:43,520 --> 06:08:48,400
bricks are made to last forever, a
7216
06:08:46,000 --> 06:08:52,160
blessing for creativity, but a concern
7217
06:08:48,400 --> 06:08:54,240
in an era of plastic waste. In response,
7218
06:08:52,160 --> 06:08:56,080
LEGO has invested hundreds of millions
7219
06:08:54,240 --> 06:08:58,320
of dollars into developing more
7220
06:08:56,080 --> 06:09:00,878
sustainable materials.
7221
06:08:58,320 --> 06:09:04,160
Plant-based polyethylene is already used
7222
06:09:00,878 --> 06:09:07,840
for leaves and trees. Recycled PT
7223
06:09:04,160 --> 06:09:11,440
prototypes continue to advance. Recycled
7224
06:09:07,840 --> 06:09:13,440
PET prototypes continue to advance. New
7225
06:09:11,440 --> 06:09:17,040
polymer engineering aims to create
7226
06:09:13,440 --> 06:09:19,360
bricks as durable as ABS without the
7227
06:09:17,040 --> 06:09:22,638
environmental cost.
7228
06:09:19,360 --> 06:09:24,798
This transition is not simple. A Lego
7229
06:09:22,638 --> 06:09:27,520
brick must interlock with perfect
7230
06:09:24,798 --> 06:09:29,600
precision. A fraction of a millimeter
7231
06:09:27,520 --> 06:09:31,440
can make the difference between wonder
7232
06:09:29,600 --> 06:09:34,080
and frustration.
7233
06:09:31,440 --> 06:09:36,480
But the mission is clear. A toy that
7234
06:09:34,080 --> 06:09:39,680
lasts forever should also protect the
7235
06:09:36,480 --> 06:09:43,360
world it is played in. Play is not a
7236
06:09:39,680 --> 06:09:44,958
luxury. Play is exploration. Play is
7237
06:09:43,360 --> 06:09:47,200
curiosity.
7238
06:09:44,958 --> 06:09:49,040
Play is the earliest form of human
7239
06:09:47,200 --> 06:09:51,200
creativity.
7240
06:09:49,040 --> 06:09:53,760
From wooden ducks in a small Danish
7241
06:09:51,200 --> 06:09:55,840
workshop to interlocking bricks that
7242
06:09:53,760 --> 06:09:59,120
span generations
7243
06:09:55,840 --> 06:10:02,080
to movies, video games, robotics, and
7244
06:09:59,120 --> 06:10:04,718
global fan communities. LEGO has
7245
06:10:02,080 --> 06:10:08,480
remained loyal to a simple truth. When
7246
06:10:04,718 --> 06:10:12,160
we build, we grow. When we imagine, we
7247
06:10:08,480 --> 06:10:15,160
expand. When we play, we become more
7248
06:10:12,160 --> 06:10:15,160
human.
7249
06:10:19,120 --> 06:10:24,798
More than a century ago, a carpenter
7250
06:10:21,840 --> 06:10:27,840
rebuilt his workshop after a fire. He
7251
06:10:24,798 --> 06:10:30,480
rebuilt it again after another. Not
7252
06:10:27,840 --> 06:10:32,958
because it was easy, but because he
7253
06:10:30,480 --> 06:10:35,440
believed in the power of making things
7254
06:10:32,958 --> 06:10:38,080
and in the power of play.
7255
06:10:35,440 --> 06:10:42,000
Today, billions of creations have risen
7256
06:10:38,080 --> 06:10:43,840
from that belief. Cities, castles,
7257
06:10:42,000 --> 06:10:45,840
spaceships,
7258
06:10:43,840 --> 06:10:49,040
dreams that exist nowhere else but in
7259
06:10:45,840 --> 06:10:52,080
the minds of the people who build them.
7260
06:10:49,040 --> 06:10:54,878
LEGO is not perfect. It has faced
7261
06:10:52,080 --> 06:10:59,120
crisis, challenges, and impossible
7262
06:10:54,878 --> 06:11:01,200
decisions. But it endures through war,
7263
06:10:59,120 --> 06:11:04,000
through technological revolutions,
7264
06:11:01,200 --> 06:11:07,120
through economic storms. Because
7265
06:11:04,000 --> 06:11:09,040
imagination always endures.
7266
06:11:07,120 --> 06:11:11,840
And as long as there are hands reaching
7267
06:11:09,040 --> 06:11:14,958
for bricks, as long as there are minds
7268
06:11:11,840 --> 06:11:17,920
ready to create, the legacy of Ole
7269
06:11:14,958 --> 06:11:23,558
Christensen will continue.
7270
06:11:17,920 --> 06:11:23,558
Every dream starts with a single piece.
7271
06:12:49,840 --> 06:12:57,520
Jensen Hang the Software Moat.
7272
06:12:54,080 --> 06:13:00,878
June 18th, 2024.
7273
06:12:57,520 --> 06:13:03,280
For a brief historic moment, the world
7274
06:13:00,878 --> 06:13:06,638
had a new king.
7275
06:13:03,280 --> 06:13:09,840
Jensen Huang, the co-founder and CEO of
7276
06:13:06,638 --> 06:13:13,120
Nvidia, stood at the peak of a $3.4
7277
06:13:09,840 --> 06:13:15,440
trillion mountain.
7278
06:13:13,120 --> 06:13:18,480
Analysts whispered that he wasn't just
7279
06:13:15,440 --> 06:13:22,080
leading a company. He was leading the
7280
06:13:18,480 --> 06:13:25,040
first entity destined for a $4 trillion
7281
06:13:22,080 --> 06:13:26,958
valuation.
7282
06:13:25,040 --> 06:13:30,480
But to understand the man in the leather
7283
06:13:26,958 --> 06:13:34,240
jacket, you cannot look at the triumph.
7284
06:13:30,480 --> 06:13:38,558
You must look at the fear. Behind the
7285
06:13:34,240 --> 06:13:42,080
250% revenue jumps and the soldout age
7286
06:13:38,558 --> 06:13:44,480
100 backlogs lies a leader obsessed with
7287
06:13:42,080 --> 06:13:46,240
the cyclical trap.
7288
06:13:44,480 --> 06:13:47,760
In the 60-year history of
7289
06:13:46,240 --> 06:13:50,558
semiconductors,
7290
06:13:47,760 --> 06:13:54,718
giants like Texas Instruments, Intel,
7291
06:13:50,558 --> 06:13:57,680
and Samsung have all held the crown only
7292
06:13:54,718 --> 06:14:00,718
to see it slip away.
7293
06:13:57,680 --> 06:14:05,520
Jensen's mission is simple. Break the
7294
06:14:00,718 --> 06:14:08,638
cycle before it breaks him.
7295
06:14:05,520 --> 06:14:11,280
Flashback to September 1996.
7296
06:14:08,638 --> 06:14:13,680
The golden era of the internet is
7297
06:14:11,280 --> 06:14:17,600
dawning for everyone else but for
7298
06:14:13,680 --> 06:14:20,718
Nvidia. It is a death nail.
7299
06:14:17,600 --> 06:14:23,600
Their first chip, the NV1, is a
7300
06:14:20,718 --> 06:14:26,080
technical ghost rejected by Microsoft's
7301
06:14:23,600 --> 06:14:28,638
DirectX.
7302
06:14:26,080 --> 06:14:31,440
Jensen stands before a dwindling team
7303
06:14:28,638 --> 06:14:34,080
and delivers the most famous mantra in
7304
06:14:31,440 --> 06:14:38,080
Silicon Valley history.
7305
06:14:34,080 --> 06:14:41,600
We have exactly 30 days of oxygen left.
7306
06:14:38,080 --> 06:14:44,000
We are 30 days from bankruptcy.
7307
06:14:41,600 --> 06:14:46,400
How does a man go from cleaning toilets
7308
06:14:44,000 --> 06:14:48,400
in a Kentucky reform school to
7309
06:14:46,400 --> 06:14:51,520
controlling the foundational layer of
7310
06:14:48,400 --> 06:14:54,400
the global AI economy?
7311
06:14:51,520 --> 06:14:57,600
From a red leather booth at a Denny's to
7312
06:14:54,400 --> 06:14:59,920
a legal showdown in the US Supreme Court
7313
06:14:57,600 --> 06:15:01,680
over the very intellectual honesty of
7314
06:14:59,920 --> 06:15:04,320
his empire.
7315
06:15:01,680 --> 06:15:05,920
This is not just a story of silicon and
7316
06:15:04,320 --> 06:15:08,000
software.
7317
06:15:05,920 --> 06:15:10,240
This is the chronicle of the man who
7318
06:15:08,000 --> 06:15:11,840
decided to manufacture intelligence
7319
06:15:10,240 --> 06:15:15,440
itself.
7320
06:15:11,840 --> 06:15:18,878
This is Jensen Huang, the architect of
7321
06:15:15,440 --> 06:15:24,120
the digital brain.
7322
06:15:18,878 --> 06:15:24,120
Chapter one. Forged in the chaos,
7323
06:15:24,320 --> 06:15:30,320
Nvidia was not born from abundance. Its
7324
06:15:27,840 --> 06:15:32,400
DNA was forged in the raw fires of
7325
06:15:30,320 --> 06:15:35,280
survival.
7326
06:15:32,400 --> 06:15:38,000
Jen's son Huang arrived in the United
7327
06:15:35,280 --> 06:15:41,360
States as a young migrant, but his
7328
06:15:38,000 --> 06:15:43,760
destination wasn't an elite prep school.
7329
06:15:41,360 --> 06:15:46,400
Due to a clerical misunderstanding by
7330
06:15:43,760 --> 06:15:49,600
his parents, he was sent to Onida
7331
06:15:46,400 --> 06:15:52,480
Baptist Institute in rural Kentucky, a
7332
06:15:49,600 --> 06:15:55,040
place that at the time functioned more
7333
06:15:52,480 --> 06:15:57,600
as a reform school for troubled youths
7334
06:15:55,040 --> 06:16:00,718
than a traditional academy.
7335
06:15:57,600 --> 06:16:02,798
At 9 years old, the future CEO of one of
7336
06:16:00,718 --> 06:16:05,360
the world's most valuable companies
7337
06:16:02,798 --> 06:16:08,718
wasn't coding. He was cleaning the
7338
06:16:05,360 --> 06:16:10,798
toilets of 150 teenagers every single
7339
06:16:08,718 --> 06:16:13,360
afternoon.
7340
06:16:10,798 --> 06:16:14,958
In his personal transcripts, Jensen
7341
06:16:13,360 --> 06:16:18,480
reflects on this with a chilling
7342
06:16:14,958 --> 06:16:20,878
stoicism. I didn't complain. I just
7343
06:16:18,480 --> 06:16:22,798
learned to work hard.
7344
06:16:20,878 --> 06:16:25,520
Bad boy learned the first law of
7345
06:16:22,798 --> 06:16:29,040
accelerated computing decades before it
7346
06:16:25,520 --> 06:16:31,600
existed. For a system to be efficient,
7347
06:16:29,040 --> 06:16:34,878
it must be able to process chaos under
7348
06:16:31,600 --> 06:16:37,920
extreme pressure.
7349
06:16:34,878 --> 06:16:40,320
By 15, Jensen was the most efficient
7350
06:16:37,920 --> 06:16:43,440
dishwasher and waiter at a Denny's in
7351
06:16:40,320 --> 06:16:45,920
Portland. I was incredibly shy, he
7352
06:16:43,440 --> 06:16:48,878
admits. But the chaos of the kitchen
7353
06:16:45,920 --> 06:16:51,360
forced me out of my shell.
7354
06:16:48,878 --> 06:16:55,040
It is no coincidence that Nvidia was
7355
06:16:51,360 --> 06:16:58,240
founded in 1993 inside a booth at that
7356
06:16:55,040 --> 06:17:00,480
very same restaurant chain. While the
7357
06:16:58,240 --> 06:17:03,600
world saw the dawn of the PC as an
7358
06:17:00,480 --> 06:17:06,958
office tool for spreadsheets, Jensen,
7359
06:17:03,600 --> 06:17:10,320
Chris Mahovski, and Curtis Pum saw a
7360
06:17:06,958 --> 06:17:14,558
fatal weakness.
7361
06:17:10,320 --> 06:17:17,760
In 1993, Intel's generalpurpose CPU was
7362
06:17:14,558 --> 06:17:20,718
hitting a physical wall. If the future
7363
06:17:17,760 --> 06:17:22,718
of computing was visual and immersive,
7364
06:17:20,718 --> 06:17:24,718
the traditional serial architecture
7365
06:17:22,718 --> 06:17:26,480
would become the bottleneck of human
7366
06:17:24,718 --> 06:17:29,920
progress.
7367
06:17:26,480 --> 06:17:33,040
With only $40,000 in startup capital,
7368
06:17:29,920 --> 06:17:35,520
they founded Nvidia to chase a ghost,
7369
06:17:33,040 --> 06:17:37,440
accelerated computing.
7370
06:17:35,520 --> 06:17:40,480
They bet on a market the rest of the
7371
06:17:37,440 --> 06:17:44,320
industry dismissed as a niche for toys,
7372
06:17:40,480 --> 06:17:46,080
video games. Before Jensen, video games
7373
06:17:44,320 --> 06:17:47,680
were the ultimate technological
7374
06:17:46,080 --> 06:17:49,760
flywheel.
7375
06:17:47,680 --> 06:17:52,558
He knew that if you could master the
7376
06:17:49,760 --> 06:17:54,718
massive realtime rendering of pixels,
7377
06:17:52,558 --> 06:17:56,878
you could eventually simulate reality
7378
06:17:54,718 --> 06:17:59,360
itself.
7379
06:17:56,878 --> 06:18:01,600
But before they could reach that glory,
7380
06:17:59,360 --> 06:18:06,280
they had to survive their first massive
7381
06:18:01,600 --> 06:18:06,280
technical abyss, the NV1.
7382
06:18:13,520 --> 06:18:18,558
By 1995,
7383
06:18:15,440 --> 06:18:21,760
Nvidia's first massive bet, the NV1
7384
06:18:18,558 --> 06:18:24,160
chip, was ready to conquer the market.
7385
06:18:21,760 --> 06:18:26,400
But Jensen Hang had made a catastrophic
7386
06:18:24,160 --> 06:18:28,000
technical gamble.
7387
06:18:26,400 --> 06:18:31,280
At a time when the industry was
7388
06:18:28,000 --> 06:18:33,680
undecided, he bet on quadratic texture
7389
06:18:31,280 --> 06:18:36,958
mapping, a method that used curved
7390
06:18:33,680 --> 06:18:39,440
surfaces to create 3D images.
7391
06:18:36,958 --> 06:18:42,878
It was mathematically intelligent, but
7392
06:18:39,440 --> 06:18:44,878
it was a lonely path. The industry
7393
06:18:42,878 --> 06:18:48,400
hammer dropped when Microsoft released
7394
06:18:44,878 --> 06:18:51,360
its first DirectX API. Microsoft chose
7395
06:18:48,400 --> 06:18:54,080
triangles, not quads, as the universal
7396
06:18:51,360 --> 06:18:55,840
language for PC gaming.
7397
06:18:54,080 --> 06:18:59,360
This decision rendered Nvidia's
7398
06:18:55,840 --> 06:19:02,558
technology instantly obsolete.
7399
06:18:59,360 --> 06:19:06,320
The NV1 wasn't just a failure, it was a
7400
06:19:02,558 --> 06:19:09,120
dead end. The company was bleeding cash.
7401
06:19:06,320 --> 06:19:14,440
And as Jensen famously put it, they were
7402
06:19:09,120 --> 06:19:14,440
staring at exactly 30 days of oxygen.
7403
06:19:14,958 --> 06:19:20,240
Nvidia's only lifeline was a strategic
7404
06:19:17,600 --> 06:19:22,000
contract with the Japanese giant Sega to
7405
06:19:20,240 --> 06:19:24,878
build the graphics engine for the Sega
7406
06:19:22,000 --> 06:19:27,840
Saturn. But Jensen was trapped in a
7407
06:19:24,878 --> 06:19:29,920
moral and business dilemma.
7408
06:19:27,840 --> 06:19:32,558
He knew that if they continued building
7409
06:19:29,920 --> 06:19:34,480
the chip for Sega using Nvidia's flawed
7410
06:19:32,558 --> 06:19:36,400
quad technology,
7411
06:19:34,480 --> 06:19:39,120
Sega would lose the console war to
7412
06:19:36,400 --> 06:19:42,400
Sony's PlayStation and Nvidia would
7413
06:19:39,120 --> 06:19:45,120
eventually perish anyway. In an act of
7414
06:19:42,400 --> 06:19:48,080
intellectual honesty, or as many at the
7415
06:19:45,120 --> 06:19:51,520
time called corporate suicide, Jensen
7416
06:19:48,080 --> 06:19:55,280
flew to Japan. He sat across from Shy
7417
06:19:51,520 --> 06:19:58,638
Chiro Inimiri, the CEO of Sega, and told
7418
06:19:55,280 --> 06:20:01,280
him the brutal truth. Our technology is
7419
06:19:58,638 --> 06:20:03,760
on the wrong path. If we finish this
7420
06:20:01,280 --> 06:20:05,840
project, you will produce an inferior
7421
06:20:03,760 --> 06:20:08,718
product.
7422
06:20:05,840 --> 06:20:11,120
Jensen asked for the impossible. He
7423
06:20:08,718 --> 06:20:13,600
asked Sega to terminate the contract,
7424
06:20:11,120 --> 06:20:16,638
but to pay the remaining $5 million
7425
06:20:13,600 --> 06:20:19,120
anyway. If you don't pay us, Jensen
7426
06:20:16,638 --> 06:20:21,040
pleaded. Nvidia will cease to exist
7427
06:20:19,120 --> 06:20:23,440
tomorrow.
7428
06:20:21,040 --> 06:20:26,558
To the astonishment of the tech world,
7429
06:20:23,440 --> 06:20:29,520
Idim Majiri son agreed. He didn't pay
7430
06:20:26,558 --> 06:20:31,920
for a working chip. He paid for Jensen's
7431
06:20:29,520 --> 06:20:34,798
integrity.
7432
06:20:31,920 --> 06:20:37,280
That $5 million was the most expensive
7433
06:20:34,798 --> 06:20:40,160
oxygen in history.
7434
06:20:37,280 --> 06:20:42,558
To make it last, Jensen had to fire half
7435
06:20:40,160 --> 06:20:44,400
of his workforce. These weren't just
7436
06:20:42,558 --> 06:20:47,200
employees. They were friends who had
7437
06:20:44,400 --> 06:20:49,280
shared the Denny's dream. This trauma
7438
06:20:47,200 --> 06:20:52,480
institutionalized a permanent state of
7439
06:20:49,280 --> 06:20:55,280
emergency at Nvidia.
7440
06:20:52,480 --> 06:20:59,280
With the remaining team, Jensen funneled
7441
06:20:55,280 --> 06:21:02,080
every scent into the Reval 128. They
7442
06:20:59,280 --> 06:21:04,558
abandoned quads and embraced Microsoft's
7443
06:21:02,080 --> 06:21:10,160
triangles with a vengeance. When it
7444
06:21:04,558 --> 06:21:13,360
launched in 1997, the Reva 128 was 400%
7445
06:21:10,160 --> 06:21:16,558
faster than anything else on the market.
7446
06:21:13,360 --> 06:21:19,520
It was a dive catch of epic proportions.
7447
06:21:16,558 --> 06:21:22,558
Nvidia was no longer just a survivor. It
7448
06:21:19,520 --> 06:21:25,360
had become a hunter.
7449
06:21:22,558 --> 06:21:28,718
But as Jensen looked at the horizon, he
7450
06:21:25,360 --> 06:21:33,000
saw 70 rivals waiting to kill him. The
7451
06:21:28,718 --> 06:21:33,000
war was only beginning.
7452
06:21:38,160 --> 06:21:44,000
The success of the Reval 128 was a dive
7453
06:21:41,440 --> 06:21:46,480
catch, but it placed Nvidia in the
7454
06:21:44,000 --> 06:21:50,000
middle of a slaughterhouse.
7455
06:21:46,480 --> 06:21:52,240
By 1997, there were over 70 companies
7456
06:21:50,000 --> 06:21:53,760
fighting for the soul of the 3D graphics
7457
06:21:52,240 --> 06:21:55,760
market.
7458
06:21:53,760 --> 06:21:58,958
It was a commodity war where price
7459
06:21:55,760 --> 06:22:01,200
cutting was the only weapon for most.
7460
06:21:58,958 --> 06:22:03,440
Jensen Huang realized that if Nvidia
7461
06:22:01,200 --> 06:22:07,040
played by the industry's rules, they
7462
06:22:03,440 --> 06:22:10,400
would eventually be ground into dust.
7463
06:22:07,040 --> 06:22:12,320
He decided to break the laws of time.
7464
06:22:10,400 --> 06:22:15,680
The industry standard for developing a
7465
06:22:12,320 --> 06:22:18,878
new chip was 18 to 24 months. Following
7466
06:22:15,680 --> 06:22:21,200
the steady beat of Moore's law, Jensen
7467
06:22:18,878 --> 06:22:24,240
gathered his engineers and imposed a
7468
06:22:21,200 --> 06:22:26,958
suicidal mandate. Nvidia would release a
7469
06:22:24,240 --> 06:22:30,638
brand new groundbreaking architecture
7470
06:22:26,958 --> 06:22:32,638
every 6 months.
7471
06:22:30,638 --> 06:22:34,160
It was a strategy of relentless
7472
06:22:32,638 --> 06:22:37,600
execution.
7473
06:22:34,160 --> 06:22:40,798
By the time a competitor like 3dfx or S3
7474
06:22:37,600 --> 06:22:43,840
could react to one Nvidia chip, Jensen
7475
06:22:40,798 --> 06:22:46,000
had already launched two more. This
7476
06:22:43,840 --> 06:22:48,320
forced the competition into a permanent
7477
06:22:46,000 --> 06:22:51,200
state of obsolescence.
7478
06:22:48,320 --> 06:22:53,600
To achieve this, Nvidia had to reinvent
7479
06:22:51,200 --> 06:22:56,160
its internal engineering, running
7480
06:22:53,600 --> 06:22:58,240
multiple design teams in parallel, a
7481
06:22:56,160 --> 06:23:00,160
massive financial risk that pushed the
7482
06:22:58,240 --> 06:23:04,718
company to the edge of its operational
7483
06:23:00,160 --> 06:23:10,798
capacity. In 1999, the war reached its
7484
06:23:04,718 --> 06:23:13,440
climax. Nvidia released the GeForce 256.
7485
06:23:10,798 --> 06:23:15,600
Jensen didn't just market it as a faster
7486
06:23:13,440 --> 06:23:19,680
card. He coined a term that would
7487
06:23:15,600 --> 06:23:22,638
redefine computing history, the GPU,
7488
06:23:19,680 --> 06:23:25,680
graphics processing unit. This wasn't
7489
06:23:22,638 --> 06:23:27,360
just branding. Technically, the GeForce
7490
06:23:25,680 --> 06:23:29,280
256
7491
06:23:27,360 --> 06:23:31,280
moved the transformer lighting
7492
06:23:29,280 --> 06:23:34,638
calculations, the most heavy
7493
06:23:31,280 --> 06:23:37,520
mathematical lifting of 3D off the CPU
7494
06:23:34,638 --> 06:23:40,000
and onto the chip itself. It was the
7495
06:23:37,520 --> 06:23:42,480
birth of a new era.
7496
06:23:40,000 --> 06:23:44,480
This performance leap was so massive
7497
06:23:42,480 --> 06:23:46,480
that Nvidia secured the prestigious
7498
06:23:44,480 --> 06:23:50,320
contract for the original Microsoft
7499
06:23:46,480 --> 06:23:52,878
Xbox, receiving a crucial $200 million
7500
06:23:50,320 --> 06:23:55,920
advance.
7501
06:23:52,878 --> 06:23:58,558
The 6-month cycle worked. By the early
7502
06:23:55,920 --> 06:24:02,878
2000s, the 70 competitors had been
7503
06:23:58,558 --> 06:24:05,760
reduced to just two, Nvidia and ATI.
7504
06:24:02,878 --> 06:24:08,080
In a final act of dominance, Nvidia
7505
06:24:05,760 --> 06:24:12,638
acquired the assets of its former idol
7506
06:24:08,080 --> 06:24:15,920
and arch rival 3dfx in 2000.
7507
06:24:12,638 --> 06:24:19,360
Jensen had cleared the board. He was the
7508
06:24:15,920 --> 06:24:22,000
undisputed king of gaming. But at the
7509
06:24:19,360 --> 06:24:23,760
very moment of his greatest triumph, he
7510
06:24:22,000 --> 06:24:26,480
began to look at the high performance
7511
06:24:23,760 --> 06:24:28,878
computing market. He realized that the
7512
06:24:26,480 --> 06:24:31,840
GPU's massive parallel math could do
7513
06:24:28,878 --> 06:24:34,878
more than just draw pixels. It could
7514
06:24:31,840 --> 06:24:38,400
solve the world's most complex problems.
7515
06:24:34,878 --> 06:24:42,680
The seeds of CUDA and the $10 billion
7516
06:24:38,400 --> 06:24:42,680
gamble were being planted.
7517
06:24:48,000 --> 06:24:55,040
By 2006, Nvidia was the undisputed king
7518
06:24:51,760 --> 06:24:57,360
of the gaming world. But Jensen Hang was
7519
06:24:55,040 --> 06:24:59,520
restless. He realized that the same
7520
06:24:57,360 --> 06:25:02,160
parallel processing power that rendered
7521
06:24:59,520 --> 06:25:04,080
pixels for World of Warcraft could be
7522
06:25:02,160 --> 06:25:06,558
used to solve the world's most complex
7523
06:25:04,080 --> 06:25:10,240
mathematical problems.
7524
06:25:06,558 --> 06:25:12,958
He launched CUDA, compute unified device
7525
06:25:10,240 --> 06:25:16,400
architecture. It was a declaration of
7526
06:25:12,958 --> 06:25:19,280
war against the CPUcentric world.
7527
06:25:16,400 --> 06:25:22,080
The goal was simple yet insane.
7528
06:25:19,280 --> 06:25:24,958
Transform every NVIDIA GPU into a
7529
06:25:22,080 --> 06:25:27,040
generalpurpose supercomput.
7530
06:25:24,958 --> 06:25:30,878
But this decision came with a staggering
7531
06:25:27,040 --> 06:25:33,440
cost. Jensen mandated that every single
7532
06:25:30,878 --> 06:25:35,520
GPU Nvidia manufactured from the
7533
06:25:33,440 --> 06:25:38,160
high-end workstation cards to the
7534
06:25:35,520 --> 06:25:40,638
cheapest laptop chips must include the
7535
06:25:38,160 --> 06:25:43,040
extra transistors and hardware logic to
7536
06:25:40,638 --> 06:25:46,638
support CUDA.
7537
06:25:43,040 --> 06:25:49,200
Wall Street was horrified.
7538
06:25:46,638 --> 06:25:52,320
For nearly a decade, Nvidia spent
7539
06:25:49,200 --> 06:25:55,680
billions, estimated at over 10 billion
7540
06:25:52,320 --> 06:25:58,798
dollars in cumulative R&D on a software
7541
06:25:55,680 --> 06:26:00,878
platform that almost no one was using.
7542
06:25:58,798 --> 06:26:03,200
Profit margins, which once sat
7543
06:26:00,878 --> 06:26:05,760
comfortably high, were sacrificed at the
7544
06:26:03,200 --> 06:26:08,718
altar of this vision.
7545
06:26:05,760 --> 06:26:12,240
Analysts mocked the strategy, calling it
7546
06:26:08,718 --> 06:26:15,040
the bridge to nowhere. During the 2008
7547
06:26:12,240 --> 06:26:17,760
financial crisis, Nvidia's market cap
7548
06:26:15,040 --> 06:26:20,798
plummeted and the company was once again
7549
06:26:17,760 --> 06:26:22,480
staring into the abyss.
7550
06:26:20,798 --> 06:26:25,360
But Jensen wasn't just building
7551
06:26:22,480 --> 06:26:28,480
hardware. He was building a software
7552
06:26:25,360 --> 06:26:30,958
moat. He sent Nvidia engineers to
7553
06:26:28,480 --> 06:26:33,120
universities around the world, helping
7554
06:26:30,958 --> 06:26:35,200
professors teach parallel programming
7555
06:26:33,120 --> 06:26:37,760
using CUDA.
7556
06:26:35,200 --> 06:26:40,400
He was seeding the ground. While
7557
06:26:37,760 --> 06:26:43,360
competitors like Intel and AMD focused
7558
06:26:40,400 --> 06:26:45,920
on making faster chips, Jensen was
7559
06:26:43,360 --> 06:26:48,320
building an entire language.
7560
06:26:45,920 --> 06:26:50,798
By the time a developer learned CUDA,
7561
06:26:48,320 --> 06:26:52,878
they were locked in. Switching to a
7562
06:26:50,798 --> 06:26:55,280
competitor wouldn't just mean buying a
7563
06:26:52,878 --> 06:26:58,718
new chip. It would mean rewriting
7564
06:26:55,280 --> 06:27:01,840
millions of lines of code.
7565
06:26:58,718 --> 06:27:04,478
Year after year, Jensen defended CUDA in
7566
06:27:01,840 --> 06:27:06,638
boardrooms and earning calls. He
7567
06:27:04,478 --> 06:27:08,958
practiced what he calls long-term
7568
06:27:06,638 --> 06:27:11,760
commitment to a vision, even when the
7569
06:27:08,958 --> 06:27:14,080
data didn't yet support it. He was
7570
06:27:11,760 --> 06:27:15,600
waiting for a killer app for accelerated
7571
06:27:14,080 --> 06:27:18,000
computing.
7572
06:27:15,600 --> 06:27:20,558
He didn't know what it would be. But he
7573
06:27:18,000 --> 06:27:22,878
knew that as data grew exponentially,
7574
06:27:20,558 --> 06:27:24,958
the serial processing of the CPU would
7575
06:27:22,878 --> 06:27:27,360
eventually fail.
7576
06:27:24,958 --> 06:27:29,200
The silence of the Cuda winter was about
7577
06:27:27,360 --> 06:27:32,160
to be broken.
7578
06:27:29,200 --> 06:27:35,360
In a lab at the University of Toronto, a
7579
06:27:32,160 --> 06:27:37,840
PhD student named Alex Kresvki was about
7580
06:27:35,360 --> 06:27:40,878
to feed a neural network called Alexet
7581
06:27:37,840 --> 06:27:43,280
into those Nvidia GPUs.
7582
06:27:40,878 --> 06:27:46,400
The big bang of artificial intelligence
7583
06:27:43,280 --> 06:27:48,798
was seconds away, and Jensen Huang was
7584
06:27:46,400 --> 06:27:53,240
the only person on Earth who had already
7585
06:27:48,798 --> 06:27:53,240
built the engine to power it.
7586
06:27:58,718 --> 06:28:04,478
The year was 2012. While the world saw
7587
06:28:02,080 --> 06:28:06,718
just another academic competition,
7588
06:28:04,478 --> 06:28:09,360
Jensen Hang saw the spark that would
7589
06:28:06,718 --> 06:28:12,638
ignite a global revolution.
7590
06:28:09,360 --> 06:28:16,000
A neural network called AlexNet, powered
7591
06:28:12,638 --> 06:28:19,280
by NVIDIA GPUs, crushed the competition
7592
06:28:16,000 --> 06:28:21,840
in image recognition. It was the big
7593
06:28:19,280 --> 06:28:24,638
bang of deep learning.
7594
06:28:21,840 --> 06:28:27,760
Jinsen didn't just celebrate, he pivoted
7595
06:28:24,638 --> 06:28:30,878
the entire company. He realized that the
7596
06:28:27,760 --> 06:28:35,120
$10 billion gamble on CUDA had finally
7597
06:28:30,878 --> 06:28:37,440
found its soul, artificial intelligence.
7598
06:28:35,120 --> 06:28:39,680
This pivot transformed Nvidia from a
7599
06:28:37,440 --> 06:28:41,760
graphics card company into the
7600
06:28:39,680 --> 06:28:44,798
foundational engine of the world's most
7601
06:28:41,760 --> 06:28:46,638
powerful data centers.
7602
06:28:44,798 --> 06:28:49,760
Jensen's vision was no longer about
7603
06:28:46,638 --> 06:28:51,280
drawing pixels. It was about generative
7604
06:28:49,760 --> 06:28:54,080
AI.
7605
06:28:51,280 --> 06:28:55,600
By the time Chat GPT launched in late
7606
06:28:54,080 --> 06:28:58,320
2022,
7607
06:28:55,600 --> 06:29:00,160
Nvidia didn't just have a head start.
7608
06:28:58,320 --> 06:29:03,120
They were the only ones at the starting
7609
06:29:00,160 --> 06:29:05,360
line.
7610
06:29:03,120 --> 06:29:08,000
Jensen acted with a speed that terrified
7611
06:29:05,360 --> 06:29:11,040
his competitors. He didn't just wait for
7612
06:29:08,000 --> 06:29:15,040
orders. He re-engineered Nvidia's entire
7613
06:29:11,040 --> 06:29:18,320
road map. In 2016, he personally
7614
06:29:15,040 --> 06:29:21,120
delivered the first Nvidia DGX1,
7615
06:29:18,320 --> 06:29:23,920
the world's first AI supercomput in a
7616
06:29:21,120 --> 06:29:28,000
box to a then small nonprofit called
7617
06:29:23,920 --> 06:29:31,558
Open AAI. He was very clear, this will
7618
06:29:28,000 --> 06:29:31,558
change the world.
7619
06:29:32,240 --> 06:29:35,600
Technically, this period was about
7620
06:29:34,080 --> 06:29:38,080
specialization.
7621
06:29:35,600 --> 06:29:40,798
Nvidia began adding tensor cores to its
7622
06:29:38,080 --> 06:29:42,478
chips. These weren't for graphics. They
7623
06:29:40,798 --> 06:29:44,400
were designed specifically for the deep
7624
06:29:42,478 --> 06:29:46,160
learning math that powers neural
7625
06:29:44,400 --> 06:29:48,080
networks.
7626
06:29:46,160 --> 06:29:50,638
Nvidia was no longer just making a
7627
06:29:48,080 --> 06:29:52,798
faster graphics card. It was building a
7628
06:29:50,638 --> 06:29:56,798
specialized brain.
7629
06:29:52,798 --> 06:29:59,200
By 2017, the momentum was unstoppable.
7630
06:29:56,798 --> 06:30:01,360
Every major tech giant was building AI
7631
06:29:59,200 --> 06:30:03,600
labs and they all had one thing in
7632
06:30:01,360 --> 06:30:05,280
common. They were built on Nvidia's
7633
06:30:03,600 --> 06:30:07,440
stack.
7634
06:30:05,280 --> 06:30:10,080
This was the era when the software mode
7635
06:30:07,440 --> 06:30:11,520
became a fortress. Thousands of
7636
06:30:10,080 --> 06:30:14,798
researchers were now writing their
7637
06:30:11,520 --> 06:30:16,718
doctoral thesis on CUDA.
7638
06:30:14,798 --> 06:30:19,120
If a competitor wanted to challenge
7639
06:30:16,718 --> 06:30:21,760
Nvidia, they wouldn't just need a better
7640
06:30:19,120 --> 06:30:24,240
chip. They would have to convince the
7641
06:30:21,760 --> 06:30:27,120
world's brightest minds to forget
7642
06:30:24,240 --> 06:30:29,840
everything they had learned.
7643
06:30:27,120 --> 06:30:33,040
But as the AI revolution took hold, an
7644
06:30:29,840 --> 06:30:35,520
unexpected shadow emerged. A new craze
7645
06:30:33,040 --> 06:30:39,200
called Bitcoin and Ethereum began to
7646
06:30:35,520 --> 06:30:41,520
consume Nvidia's supply. To the world,
7647
06:30:39,200 --> 06:30:45,120
Nvidia looked invincible. But
7648
06:30:41,520 --> 06:30:48,160
internally, Jensen was wary. Jensen knew
7649
06:30:45,120 --> 06:30:50,478
that every bubble eventually bursts.
7650
06:30:48,160 --> 06:30:52,798
This period of explosive accidental
7651
06:30:50,478 --> 06:30:56,000
growth from crypto miners was creating a
7652
06:30:52,798 --> 06:30:58,160
shadow over the company's true mission,
7653
06:30:56,000 --> 06:31:01,040
setting the stage for a highstakes legal
7654
06:30:58,160 --> 06:31:02,958
battle over corporate transparency and a
7655
06:31:01,040 --> 06:31:06,920
financial storm that would test the very
7656
06:31:02,958 --> 06:31:06,920
foundations of his leadership.
7657
06:31:10,638 --> 06:31:16,638
In 2018, Nvidia was riding a wave that
7658
06:31:14,080 --> 06:31:18,000
looked like a miracle but felt like a
7659
06:31:16,638 --> 06:31:20,160
mirage.
7660
06:31:18,000 --> 06:31:22,160
The explosion of cryptocurrency mining
7661
06:31:20,160 --> 06:31:24,558
had created an insatiable hunger for
7662
06:31:22,160 --> 06:31:27,120
GeForce cards.
7663
06:31:24,558 --> 06:31:30,160
To the outside world, Nvidia's revenue
7664
06:31:27,120 --> 06:31:32,320
was reaching historic heights. However,
7665
06:31:30,160 --> 06:31:35,200
beneath the surface, a dangerous
7666
06:31:32,320 --> 06:31:37,200
ambiguity was growing. Jensen Huang
7667
06:31:35,200 --> 06:31:39,920
insisted that the growth was driven by a
7668
06:31:37,200 --> 06:31:43,840
gaming renaissance, but the reality was
7669
06:31:39,920 --> 06:31:45,920
more volatile. The mirage evaporated in
7670
06:31:43,840 --> 06:31:48,718
late 2018.
7671
06:31:45,920 --> 06:31:52,240
The crypto winter arrived and the demand
7672
06:31:48,718 --> 06:31:54,160
for mining chips vanished overnight.
7673
06:31:52,240 --> 06:31:56,478
Nvidia was left with a massive surplus
7674
06:31:54,160 --> 06:31:59,120
of inventory and the market's reaction
7675
06:31:56,478 --> 06:32:03,360
was brutal. The company's stock price
7676
06:31:59,120 --> 06:32:05,920
plummeted by 28% in a single day.
7677
06:32:03,360 --> 06:32:09,840
The invincible architect of AI was
7678
06:32:05,920 --> 06:32:11,680
suddenly facing a crisis of credibility.
7679
06:32:09,840 --> 06:32:13,440
This financial collapse ignited a
7680
06:32:11,680 --> 06:32:15,280
highstakes legal battle that would
7681
06:32:13,440 --> 06:32:17,360
eventually reach the steps of the US
7682
06:32:15,280 --> 06:32:19,600
Supreme Court.
7683
06:32:17,360 --> 06:32:22,080
A group of institutional investors filed
7684
06:32:19,600 --> 06:32:24,558
a class action lawsuit alleging that
7685
06:32:22,080 --> 06:32:27,440
Jensen Huang had deliberately misled the
7686
06:32:24,558 --> 06:32:30,240
market. The core of the case rested on a
7687
06:32:27,440 --> 06:32:34,160
single devastating word.
7688
06:32:30,240 --> 06:32:36,718
Cienta, the intent to deceive.
7689
06:32:34,160 --> 06:32:38,638
The accusation was sharp. Investors
7690
06:32:36,718 --> 06:32:40,878
claimed that internal Nvidia reports
7691
06:32:38,638 --> 06:32:43,360
clearly showed over a billion dollars in
7692
06:32:40,878 --> 06:32:46,160
revenue attributed to gamers was
7693
06:32:43,360 --> 06:32:48,400
actually coming from crypto miners.
7694
06:32:46,160 --> 06:32:50,718
Jensen fought back, defending his
7695
06:32:48,400 --> 06:32:52,718
intellectual honesty and arguing that
7696
06:32:50,718 --> 06:32:55,840
the expert opinions used against him
7697
06:32:52,718 --> 06:32:58,160
were nothing more than speculation.
7698
06:32:55,840 --> 06:33:00,478
This battle known as petition number
7699
06:32:58,160 --> 06:33:02,558
23-970
7700
06:33:00,478 --> 06:33:05,280
became a landmark moment for Silicon
7701
06:33:02,558 --> 06:33:07,280
Valley, questioning how much a CEO must
7702
06:33:05,280 --> 06:33:09,200
disclose when their technology
7703
06:33:07,280 --> 06:33:12,320
accidentally conquers a market they
7704
06:33:09,200 --> 06:33:14,718
didn't intend to lead.
7705
06:33:12,320 --> 06:33:16,558
While lawyers argued in Washington,
7706
06:33:14,718 --> 06:33:19,360
Jensen was already looking past the
7707
06:33:16,558 --> 06:33:21,760
wreckage. He didn't let the legal storm
7708
06:33:19,360 --> 06:33:24,320
or the inventory crisis slowed down his
7709
06:33:21,760 --> 06:33:26,958
ultimate plan. He doubled down on the
7710
06:33:24,320 --> 06:33:29,520
data center, acquiring Melanox for $7
7711
06:33:26,958 --> 06:33:31,280
billion to control the highways between
7712
06:33:29,520 --> 06:33:33,280
his chips.
7713
06:33:31,280 --> 06:33:35,840
He was preparing for a world where AI
7714
06:33:33,280 --> 06:33:37,840
wouldn't just be a research project, but
7715
06:33:35,840 --> 06:33:39,520
the operating system of the entire
7716
06:33:37,840 --> 06:33:42,240
planet.
7717
06:33:39,520 --> 06:33:44,718
The storm of 2018 had been a warning.
7718
06:33:42,240 --> 06:33:48,440
The era of generative AI was about to
7719
06:33:44,718 --> 06:33:48,440
provide the answer.
7720
06:33:52,240 --> 06:33:57,120
By 2022,
7721
06:33:54,160 --> 06:33:59,280
the world had changed. The launch of
7722
06:33:57,120 --> 06:34:02,160
Chat GPT signaled the arrival of the
7723
06:33:59,280 --> 06:34:05,440
generative AI era, and Nvidia was the
7724
06:34:02,160 --> 06:34:07,520
only company prepared to power it.
7725
06:34:05,440 --> 06:34:10,478
But as Jensen Huang stood on the brink
7726
06:34:07,520 --> 06:34:13,680
of total market dominance, a new wall
7727
06:34:10,478 --> 06:34:16,638
was built, not by a competitor, but by
7728
06:34:13,680 --> 06:34:18,958
the US government. Washington imposed
7729
06:34:16,638 --> 06:34:22,000
strict export controls on high-end AI
7730
06:34:18,958 --> 06:34:24,400
chips. For Nvidia, the stakes were
7731
06:34:22,000 --> 06:34:26,320
astronomical.
7732
06:34:24,400 --> 06:34:29,200
According to the geographical revenue
7733
06:34:26,320 --> 06:34:32,478
data, China accounted for approximately
7734
06:34:29,200 --> 06:34:34,320
20% to 25% of the company's total
7735
06:34:32,478 --> 06:34:36,718
business.
7736
06:34:34,320 --> 06:34:39,280
Overnight, Jensen had to navigate a
7737
06:34:36,718 --> 06:34:41,040
geopolitical minefield, redesigning
7738
06:34:39,280 --> 06:34:43,200
chips specifically to comply with
7739
06:34:41,040 --> 06:34:45,040
regulations while trying to keep his
7740
06:34:43,200 --> 06:34:47,280
most important market from slipping
7741
06:34:45,040 --> 06:34:49,520
away.
7742
06:34:47,280 --> 06:34:51,520
Jensen's answer to the geopolitical and
7743
06:34:49,520 --> 06:34:55,440
technical pressure was the Blackwall
7744
06:34:51,520 --> 06:34:58,558
architecture. If the H100 was a spark,
7745
06:34:55,440 --> 06:35:02,000
Blackwell was a sun. Packing an
7746
06:34:58,558 --> 06:35:03,920
incredible 208 billion transistors, it
7747
06:35:02,000 --> 06:35:07,760
delivered up to 30 times the performance
7748
06:35:03,920 --> 06:35:09,680
of its predecessor for certain AI tasks.
7749
06:35:07,760 --> 06:35:12,400
But Blackwell represented a deeper
7750
06:35:09,680 --> 06:35:15,360
strategic shift. Nvidia was no longer
7751
06:35:12,400 --> 06:35:18,240
just a chipmaker.
7752
06:35:15,360 --> 06:35:19,840
Jensen was now building entire AI
7753
06:35:18,240 --> 06:35:22,000
factories.
7754
06:35:19,840 --> 06:35:24,400
By integrating Melanox's networking
7755
06:35:22,000 --> 06:35:26,400
technology, he controlled the highways
7756
06:35:24,400 --> 06:35:28,400
that allowed thousands of chips to talk
7757
06:35:26,400 --> 06:35:31,040
to each other as if they were a single
7758
06:35:28,400 --> 06:35:33,280
giant brain.
7759
06:35:31,040 --> 06:35:35,200
This system on a cluster approach meant
7760
06:35:33,280 --> 06:35:37,680
that even if a competitor produced a
7761
06:35:35,200 --> 06:35:39,280
faster individual chip, they couldn't
7762
06:35:37,680 --> 06:35:42,320
compete with the sheer efficiency of the
7763
06:35:39,280 --> 06:35:44,958
Nvidia ecosystem.
7764
06:35:42,320 --> 06:35:48,160
The financial results were staggering.
7765
06:35:44,958 --> 06:35:52,160
By early 2024, Nvidia's data center
7766
06:35:48,160 --> 06:35:54,000
revenue had surged to over 47 billion,
7767
06:35:52,160 --> 06:35:57,120
a 217%
7768
06:35:54,000 --> 06:35:59,680
increase in a single year. The company
7769
06:35:57,120 --> 06:36:02,320
was operating with 78.4%
7770
06:35:59,680 --> 06:36:04,718
gross margins, profit levels usually
7771
06:36:02,320 --> 06:36:07,280
reserved for software giants, not
7772
06:36:04,718 --> 06:36:10,958
hardware manufacturers.
7773
06:36:07,280 --> 06:36:14,240
On June 18th, 2024, Nvidia became the
7774
06:36:10,958 --> 06:36:17,120
most valuable company on the planet.
7775
06:36:14,240 --> 06:36:20,320
Yet, even as he stood at the summit,
7776
06:36:17,120 --> 06:36:23,120
Jensen refused to relax. He looked the
7777
06:36:20,320 --> 06:36:25,840
60-year history of semiconductors, the
7778
06:36:23,120 --> 06:36:28,478
rise and fall of Intel, the cycles of
7779
06:36:25,840 --> 06:36:30,718
Samsung and TI, and he knew that being
7780
06:36:28,478 --> 06:36:34,080
on top was the most dangerous place to
7781
06:36:30,718 --> 06:36:37,360
be. His next challenge wouldn't just be
7782
06:36:34,080 --> 06:36:41,080
about chips. It would be about giving AI
7783
06:36:37,360 --> 06:36:41,080
a physical body.
7784
06:36:44,878 --> 06:36:50,000
In 2024, Jensen Huang had already
7785
06:36:47,760 --> 06:36:52,320
conquered the digital world, but his
7786
06:36:50,000 --> 06:36:55,040
eyes were fixed on a new frontier, the
7787
06:36:52,320 --> 06:36:57,920
physical one. He declared that the next
7788
06:36:55,040 --> 06:36:59,680
wave of AI would be physical AI.
7789
06:36:57,920 --> 06:37:02,718
Intelligence that doesn't just process
7790
06:36:59,680 --> 06:37:04,638
text or images, but understands the laws
7791
06:37:02,718 --> 06:37:06,878
of physics.
7792
06:37:04,638 --> 06:37:09,920
Everything that moves from autonomous
7793
06:37:06,878 --> 06:37:13,040
cars to humanoid robots would eventually
7794
06:37:09,920 --> 06:37:15,440
be powered by an Nvidia brain.
7795
06:37:13,040 --> 06:37:19,200
This identifies it as the third pillar
7796
06:37:15,440 --> 06:37:22,160
of Nvidia's future. To win this race,
7797
06:37:19,200 --> 06:37:24,240
Jensen isn't just building chips. He is
7798
06:37:22,160 --> 06:37:26,400
building the omniverse.
7799
06:37:24,240 --> 06:37:28,558
This is a digital world where robots are
7800
06:37:26,400 --> 06:37:31,360
trained millions of times in a virtual
7801
06:37:28,558 --> 06:37:33,520
simulation before they ever step into a
7802
06:37:31,360 --> 06:37:36,320
real factory.
7803
06:37:33,520 --> 06:37:38,400
By the time a robot starts its job, it
7804
06:37:36,320 --> 06:37:41,520
has already lived a thousand lifetimes
7805
06:37:38,400 --> 06:37:44,240
of experience. Jensen's strategy is a
7806
06:37:41,520 --> 06:37:46,478
total vertical integration. He is
7807
06:37:44,240 --> 06:37:48,478
transforming Nvidia into a provider of
7808
06:37:46,478 --> 06:37:50,638
AI factories.
7809
06:37:48,478 --> 06:37:53,120
He believes that in the future, every
7810
06:37:50,638 --> 06:37:55,360
company will have two factories, one
7811
06:37:53,120 --> 06:37:58,478
that produces physical goods and a
7812
06:37:55,360 --> 06:38:00,558
digital one that produces intelligence.
7813
06:37:58,478 --> 06:38:02,638
With the Melanox networking, high-speed
7814
06:38:00,558 --> 06:38:05,120
highways, and the CUDA software
7815
06:38:02,638 --> 06:38:06,958
fortress, Jensen has ensured that the
7816
06:38:05,120 --> 06:38:10,400
entire infrastructure of this new
7817
06:38:06,958 --> 06:38:13,120
industrial revolution runs on Nvidia.
7818
06:38:10,400 --> 06:38:15,200
When asked about his legacy, Jensen
7819
06:38:13,120 --> 06:38:18,000
doesn't talk about stock prices or
7820
06:38:15,200 --> 06:38:20,320
trillions of dollars. He talks about
7821
06:38:18,000 --> 06:38:21,920
material sciences and scientific
7822
06:38:20,320 --> 06:38:24,000
discovery.
7823
06:38:21,920 --> 06:38:26,638
He believes AI will give humans
7824
06:38:24,000 --> 06:38:29,440
superpowers, helping us solve climate
7825
06:38:26,638 --> 06:38:31,680
change, cure diseases, and handle the
7826
06:38:29,440 --> 06:38:34,638
dangerous and mundane tasks so we can
7827
06:38:31,680 --> 06:38:37,638
focus on what truly makes us human,
7828
06:38:34,638 --> 06:38:37,638
curiosity.
7829
06:38:40,240 --> 06:38:44,558
By 2025,
7830
06:38:42,160 --> 06:38:46,320
the world had entered a state of compute
7831
06:38:44,558 --> 06:38:49,520
geopolitics.
7832
06:38:46,320 --> 06:38:52,080
Nvidia was no longer just a company. It
7833
06:38:49,520 --> 06:38:55,200
had become a strategic resource similar
7834
06:38:52,080 --> 06:38:58,798
to oil or grain. The launch of the
7835
06:38:55,200 --> 06:39:01,680
Blackwell B200 hadn't just met demand.
7836
06:38:58,798 --> 06:39:05,200
It had ignited a global scramble.
7837
06:39:01,680 --> 06:39:08,000
Nations like Japan, France, and the UAE
7838
06:39:05,200 --> 06:39:09,600
began building sovereign AI clouds.
7839
06:39:08,000 --> 06:39:12,000
Realizing that depending on a few
7840
06:39:09,600 --> 06:39:15,040
Silicon Valley giants for intelligence
7841
06:39:12,000 --> 06:39:18,320
was a national security risk.
7842
06:39:15,040 --> 06:39:22,080
But as 2025 progressed, a new whisper
7843
06:39:18,320 --> 06:39:25,040
began to haunt the industry. The wall.
7844
06:39:22,080 --> 06:39:27,840
For years, AI progress relied on scaling
7845
06:39:25,040 --> 06:39:30,160
laws. The idea that more data and more
7846
06:39:27,840 --> 06:39:34,080
GPUs would inevitably lead to more
7847
06:39:30,160 --> 06:39:36,798
intelligence. However, in 2026, the
7848
06:39:34,080 --> 06:39:39,440
returns are starting to diminish. Data
7849
06:39:36,798 --> 06:39:41,440
centers are becoming so massive, they
7850
06:39:39,440 --> 06:39:43,920
require their own dedicated nuclear
7851
06:39:41,440 --> 06:39:47,360
power plants. and the lowhanging fruit
7852
06:39:43,920 --> 06:39:49,600
of internet data has been exhausted.
7853
06:39:47,360 --> 06:39:52,240
Jensen's response to the wall is
7854
06:39:49,600 --> 06:39:54,400
typically defiant. He pivoted the
7855
06:39:52,240 --> 06:39:58,320
industry towards synthetic data and
7856
06:39:54,400 --> 06:40:00,798
reasoning models. In 2026, Nvidia's
7857
06:39:58,320 --> 06:40:05,040
focus has shifted from simply training
7858
06:40:00,798 --> 06:40:07,360
AI to inference at scale. The goal is no
7859
06:40:05,040 --> 06:40:09,840
longer just to build a model that knows
7860
06:40:07,360 --> 06:40:12,000
everything, but to build a system that
7861
06:40:09,840 --> 06:40:14,320
thinks through a problem for days, if
7862
06:40:12,000 --> 06:40:18,160
necessary, using massive clusters of
7863
06:40:14,320 --> 06:40:21,360
GPUs to reach a breakthrough.
7864
06:40:18,160 --> 06:40:24,558
The competition in 2026 has never been
7865
06:40:21,360 --> 06:40:27,040
fiercer. Nvidia's biggest customers,
7866
06:40:24,558 --> 06:40:29,200
Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, have
7867
06:40:27,040 --> 06:40:31,120
become its most dangerous rivals,
7868
06:40:29,200 --> 06:40:35,600
pouring billions into their own custom
7869
06:40:31,120 --> 06:40:38,478
AI chips to escape the NVIDIA tax. Yet,
7870
06:40:35,600 --> 06:40:40,878
the software mode remains unreached.
7871
06:40:38,478 --> 06:40:43,280
While others build chips, Jensen is
7872
06:40:40,878 --> 06:40:45,680
building the entire ecosystem, the
7873
06:40:43,280 --> 06:40:47,280
networking, the libraries, and the
7874
06:40:45,680 --> 06:40:50,080
pre-trained models that make a
7875
06:40:47,280 --> 06:40:53,440
competitor's hardware feel like a relic
7876
06:40:50,080 --> 06:40:56,160
before it even leaves the factory.
7877
06:40:53,440 --> 06:40:57,760
In this era, Jensen Hang has become one
7878
06:40:56,160 --> 06:41:00,638
of the world's most influential
7879
06:40:57,760 --> 06:41:02,958
diplomat. He navigates a world where the
7880
06:41:00,638 --> 06:41:04,798
power grid is the new bottleneck and
7881
06:41:02,958 --> 06:41:06,638
where a single shipment of chips can
7882
06:41:04,798 --> 06:41:08,400
determine the economic future of a
7883
06:41:06,638 --> 06:41:11,280
country.
7884
06:41:08,400 --> 06:41:14,400
The trillion dollar question of 2026 is
7885
06:41:11,280 --> 06:41:16,478
no longer if AI will change the world,
7886
06:41:14,400 --> 06:41:19,718
but who will own the infrastructure of
7887
06:41:16,478 --> 06:41:19,718
that change.
7888
06:41:23,120 --> 06:41:27,600
The story of Nvidia is often told as a
7889
06:41:25,520 --> 06:41:30,478
series of lucky breaks or inevitable
7890
06:41:27,600 --> 06:41:33,520
triumphs. But as we look at the empire
7891
06:41:30,478 --> 06:41:36,000
Jensen Hang has built, the reality is
7892
06:41:33,520 --> 06:41:37,840
far more deliberate and far more
7893
06:41:36,000 --> 06:41:40,798
precarious.
7894
06:41:37,840 --> 06:41:42,638
In 2026, the company stands at the
7895
06:41:40,798 --> 06:41:46,400
center of the greatest industrial shift
7896
06:41:42,638 --> 06:41:49,440
in human history. Yet for Jensen, the
7897
06:41:46,400 --> 06:41:52,718
valuation of three, four, or 5 trillion
7898
06:41:49,440 --> 06:41:54,878
is a lagging indicator. The true metric
7899
06:41:52,718 --> 06:41:56,878
is the oxygen.
7900
06:41:54,878 --> 06:41:58,718
Throughout his journey, from the dish
7901
06:41:56,878 --> 06:42:01,440
pits of Denny's to the halls of the
7902
06:41:58,718 --> 06:42:04,798
Supreme Court, Jensen has maintained a
7903
06:42:01,440 --> 06:42:07,360
philosophy of intellectual honesty.
7904
06:42:04,798 --> 06:42:10,080
He admits when the technology is wrong.
7905
06:42:07,360 --> 06:42:12,080
He pivots when the market shifts. And he
7906
06:42:10,080 --> 06:42:14,558
invests billions when the world calls
7907
06:42:12,080 --> 06:42:16,320
him a fool. He has turned a
7908
06:42:14,558 --> 06:42:18,958
semiconductor company into a
7909
06:42:16,320 --> 06:42:22,080
geopolitical superpower, a software
7910
06:42:18,958 --> 06:42:24,400
fortress, and the primary architect of a
7911
06:42:22,080 --> 06:42:26,400
new form of life.
7912
06:42:24,400 --> 06:42:29,040
Critics ask if Nvidia is a bubble
7913
06:42:26,400 --> 06:42:31,840
waiting to burst, or if the scaling laws
7914
06:42:29,040 --> 06:42:33,760
of AI will eventually hit a dead end.
7915
06:42:31,840 --> 06:42:36,240
But Jensen doesn't operate on the
7916
06:42:33,760 --> 06:42:38,638
timeline of a stock market cycle. He
7917
06:42:36,240 --> 06:42:40,240
operates on the timeline of human
7918
06:42:38,638 --> 06:42:42,958
evolution.
7919
06:42:40,240 --> 06:42:44,478
He isn't just selling chips. He is
7920
06:42:42,958 --> 06:42:47,200
selling the marginal cost of
7921
06:42:44,478 --> 06:42:49,840
intelligence, making the most valuable
7922
06:42:47,200 --> 06:42:52,798
resource in the universe so abundant
7923
06:42:49,840 --> 06:42:55,280
that it changes the very definition of
7924
06:42:52,798 --> 06:42:57,440
what is possible.
7925
06:42:55,280 --> 06:42:59,360
Jensen often says that he wakes up every
7926
06:42:57,440 --> 06:43:00,958
morning with the same feeling he had in
7927
06:42:59,360 --> 06:43:02,798
1993.
7928
06:43:00,958 --> 06:43:05,920
the feeling that the company is going
7929
06:43:02,798 --> 06:43:08,558
out of business. It is this productive
7930
06:43:05,920 --> 06:43:11,680
paranoia that prevents the cyclical trap
7931
06:43:08,558 --> 06:43:13,360
that claim the giants of the past.
7932
06:43:11,680 --> 06:43:16,080
He doesn't want to be the king of a
7933
06:43:13,360 --> 06:43:19,280
legacy. He wants to be the architect of
7934
06:43:16,080 --> 06:43:22,160
a future that hasn't even been imagined
7935
06:43:19,280 --> 06:43:25,600
yet.
7936
06:43:22,160 --> 06:43:28,080
Run, don't walk. Either you are running
7937
06:43:25,600 --> 06:43:31,760
for food or you are running from being
7938
06:43:28,080 --> 06:43:36,920
food. In the era of the digital brain,
7939
06:43:31,760 --> 06:43:36,920
the race has only just begun.
7940
06:45:03,200 --> 06:45:08,080
At the edge of the world, in a country
7941
06:45:05,440 --> 06:45:10,558
with more sheep than people, one of the
7942
06:45:08,080 --> 06:45:13,760
most powerful men in Silicon Valley
7943
06:45:10,558 --> 06:45:17,840
built an escape hatch. Not a vacation
7944
06:45:13,760 --> 06:45:20,638
home, not a tax shelter, a contingency
7945
06:45:17,840 --> 06:45:24,240
plan.
7946
06:45:20,638 --> 06:45:26,478
In 2011, a billionaire quietly secured
7947
06:45:24,240 --> 06:45:29,360
citizenship in New Zealand after
7948
06:45:26,478 --> 06:45:33,600
spending just days in the country. A
7949
06:45:29,360 --> 06:45:35,520
legal backdoor, a geopolitical lifeboat
7950
06:45:33,600 --> 06:45:38,478
deep in the rugged terrain of New
7951
06:45:35,520 --> 06:45:42,478
Zealand's South Island, Peter Teal owns
7952
06:45:38,478 --> 06:45:46,080
a vast private estate, remote, secluded,
7953
06:45:42,478 --> 06:45:48,478
and far from the centers of power.
7954
06:45:46,080 --> 06:45:51,280
While most billionaires buy yachts or
7955
06:45:48,478 --> 06:45:53,120
private islands feel secured something
7956
06:45:51,280 --> 06:45:55,680
more strategic,
7957
06:45:53,120 --> 06:45:58,080
New Zealand citizenship
7958
06:45:55,680 --> 06:46:01,280
and a vast estate in one of the most
7959
06:45:58,080 --> 06:46:03,600
remote democracies on earth. The
7960
06:46:01,280 --> 06:46:05,680
purchase price for this geopolitical
7961
06:46:03,600 --> 06:46:09,120
insurance policy.
7962
06:46:05,680 --> 06:46:11,840
In 2011, Theel obtained New Zealand
7963
06:46:09,120 --> 06:46:14,160
citizenship after spending just 12 days
7964
06:46:11,840 --> 06:46:15,200
in the country over the previous 2
7965
06:46:14,160 --> 06:46:17,600
years.
7966
06:46:15,200 --> 06:46:20,920
a process that normally requires years
7967
06:46:17,600 --> 06:46:20,920
of residency.
7968
06:46:21,040 --> 06:46:26,240
The investment that secured this
7969
06:46:22,878 --> 06:46:28,798
exceptional pathway, approximately $7
7970
06:46:26,240 --> 06:46:31,280
million in local assets and business
7971
06:46:28,798 --> 06:46:34,478
investments.
7972
06:46:31,280 --> 06:46:38,320
The centerpiece, a 477
7973
06:46:34,478 --> 06:46:42,558
acre estate near Lake Wanaka, purchased
7974
06:46:38,320 --> 06:46:45,120
for 13.5 million New Zealand, about $10
7975
06:46:42,558 --> 06:46:47,520
million.
7976
06:46:45,120 --> 06:46:52,160
When New Zealand media exposed the deal
7977
06:46:47,520 --> 06:46:53,840
in 2017, it sparked a national scandal.
7978
06:46:52,160 --> 06:46:55,440
>> Hi Benedict, nice to talk to you again.
7979
06:46:53,840 --> 06:46:57,360
So when we last spoke, you told us that
7980
06:46:55,440 --> 06:47:00,000
Peter Teal was granted citizenship after
7981
06:46:57,360 --> 06:47:03,120
having only visited New Zealand four
7982
06:47:00,000 --> 06:47:05,360
times for an unknown number of days
7983
06:47:03,120 --> 06:47:07,360
because the documents had that
7984
06:47:05,360 --> 06:47:09,680
information redacted. Right.
7985
06:47:07,360 --> 06:47:12,400
>> Politicians called it citizenship for
7986
06:47:09,680 --> 06:47:14,400
sale. Opposition leaders demanded
7987
06:47:12,400 --> 06:47:16,638
investigations,
7988
06:47:14,400 --> 06:47:19,840
but Theel had already achieved his
7989
06:47:16,638 --> 06:47:21,600
objective, a legal escape hatch in the
7990
06:47:19,840 --> 06:47:23,280
world's most politically stable
7991
06:47:21,600 --> 06:47:26,160
democracy,
7992
06:47:23,280 --> 06:47:29,920
a geopolitical insurance policy that
7993
06:47:26,160 --> 06:47:32,240
money can buy.
7994
06:47:29,920 --> 06:47:34,478
Why would a man who helped build the
7995
06:47:32,240 --> 06:47:38,160
digital future prepare for the collapse
7996
06:47:34,478 --> 06:47:41,440
of the physical one? What does he see
7997
06:47:38,160 --> 06:47:45,440
that others don't? Yes, it's the uh 1
7998
06:47:41,440 --> 06:47:48,240
Thessalonians 5:3, the uh the the slogan
7999
06:47:45,440 --> 06:47:50,718
of the Antichrist is peace and safety.
8000
06:47:48,240 --> 06:47:52,718
And so, which is nothing wrong with
8001
06:47:50,718 --> 06:47:54,718
peace and safety, but uh you have to
8002
06:47:52,718 --> 06:47:56,958
sort of imagine that it resonates very
8003
06:47:54,718 --> 06:47:58,798
differently in a world where the stakes
8004
06:47:56,958 --> 06:48:00,160
are so absolute, where the stakes are so
8005
06:47:58,798 --> 06:48:04,558
extreme, where the you know the
8006
06:48:00,160 --> 06:48:06,798
alternative to peace and safety is, you
8007
06:48:04,558 --> 06:48:08,478
know, Armageddon and the destruction of
8008
06:48:06,798 --> 06:48:10,878
all things.
8009
06:48:08,478 --> 06:48:14,320
He is one of the most polarizing figures
8010
06:48:10,878 --> 06:48:17,280
in Silicon Valley. To some, a visionary
8011
06:48:14,320 --> 06:48:20,000
genius who saw the future early. To
8012
06:48:17,280 --> 06:48:22,160
others, the shadow financier of
8013
06:48:20,000 --> 06:48:25,040
movements and candidates who challenge
8014
06:48:22,160 --> 06:48:28,958
liberal democratic norms.
8015
06:48:25,040 --> 06:48:31,440
This is not fear. This is strategy.
8016
06:48:28,958 --> 06:48:35,120
For decades, Peter Theel has made the
8017
06:48:31,440 --> 06:48:38,160
same bet over and over again. Bet
8018
06:48:35,120 --> 06:48:42,798
against consensus. better against the
8019
06:48:38,160 --> 06:48:45,360
crowd, bet against the system itself.
8020
06:48:42,798 --> 06:48:47,920
To understand why he built a fortress at
8021
06:48:45,360 --> 06:48:51,280
the end of the earth, we have to go back
8022
06:48:47,920 --> 06:48:53,600
to a childhood of constant displacement.
8023
06:48:51,280 --> 06:48:56,000
To a chessboard where consensus meant
8024
06:48:53,600 --> 06:48:58,798
nothing, to a company that tried to
8025
06:48:56,000 --> 06:49:02,360
replace money and another that learned
8026
06:48:58,798 --> 06:49:02,360
to see everything.
8027
06:49:02,558 --> 06:49:08,000
But the estate is more than a luxury
8028
06:49:05,040 --> 06:49:11,200
retreat. It is a fortress designed for
8029
06:49:08,000 --> 06:49:13,920
civilizational uncertainty.
8030
06:49:11,200 --> 06:49:16,478
Off-grid power systems, advanced
8031
06:49:13,920 --> 06:49:19,360
security infrastructure, multiple
8032
06:49:16,478 --> 06:49:21,760
evacuation routes through the mountains.
8033
06:49:19,360 --> 06:49:23,680
Not built for comfort, built for
8034
06:49:21,760 --> 06:49:26,320
continuity.
8035
06:49:23,680 --> 06:49:28,320
While the world debates progress, Peter
8036
06:49:26,320 --> 06:49:30,000
Theel is preparing for a different
8037
06:49:28,320 --> 06:49:32,718
possibility.
8038
06:49:30,000 --> 06:49:36,200
Not how to build the future, how to
8039
06:49:32,718 --> 06:49:36,200
survive it.
8040
06:49:37,520 --> 06:49:43,360
The architect of dissident
8041
06:49:41,120 --> 06:49:46,878
total estimated value of Theo's
8042
06:49:43,360 --> 06:49:48,638
contingency infrastructure 20 to $30
8043
06:49:46,878 --> 06:49:52,000
million.
8044
06:49:48,638 --> 06:49:54,240
Not for lifestyle, not for prestige, but
8045
06:49:52,000 --> 06:49:56,558
for the day the system he helped build
8046
06:49:54,240 --> 06:49:58,638
no longer holds.
8047
06:49:56,558 --> 06:50:01,440
He didn't build this because he panics
8048
06:49:58,638 --> 06:50:04,080
easily. He built it because he has
8049
06:50:01,440 --> 06:50:06,638
always believed that the crowd is wrong
8050
06:50:04,080 --> 06:50:10,000
and the future belongs to those willing
8051
06:50:06,638 --> 06:50:13,360
to stand apart from it. Every fortress
8052
06:50:10,000 --> 06:50:15,680
begins as an idea and Peter Theel has
8053
06:50:13,360 --> 06:50:19,558
been building intellectual fortresses
8054
06:50:15,680 --> 06:50:19,558
since he was a child.
8055
06:50:23,520 --> 06:50:28,798
Before he was a billionaire, before he
8056
06:50:26,000 --> 06:50:30,320
funded political outsiders, before he
8057
06:50:28,798 --> 06:50:33,360
built machines that could see
8058
06:50:30,320 --> 06:50:35,280
everything, he was a boy who never
8059
06:50:33,360 --> 06:50:38,000
stayed in one place long enough to
8060
06:50:35,280 --> 06:50:40,000
believe the world made sense.
8061
06:50:38,000 --> 06:50:43,440
So, he searched for a world where the
8062
06:50:40,000 --> 06:50:45,280
rules didn't change. He found it on a
8063
06:50:43,440 --> 06:50:47,680
chessboard.
8064
06:50:45,280 --> 06:50:49,680
To understand Peter Theel, you must
8065
06:50:47,680 --> 06:50:52,320
understand what it means to be a
8066
06:50:49,680 --> 06:50:55,120
permanent outsider.
8067
06:50:52,320 --> 06:50:57,520
Born in Frankfurt, West Germany, Peter
8068
06:50:55,120 --> 06:51:01,120
Theel spent part of his early childhood
8069
06:50:57,520 --> 06:51:03,440
in southwest Africa, now Namibia, before
8070
06:51:01,120 --> 06:51:06,798
growing up mainly in the United States
8071
06:51:03,440 --> 06:51:09,120
between Ohio and California.
8072
06:51:06,798 --> 06:51:12,400
Before he was a teenager, he had already
8073
06:51:09,120 --> 06:51:14,718
experienced life on multiple continents,
8074
06:51:12,400 --> 06:51:16,718
never staying long enough to feel fully
8075
06:51:14,718 --> 06:51:19,440
at home.
8076
06:51:16,718 --> 06:51:23,280
He didn't have a hometown. He didn't
8077
06:51:19,440 --> 06:51:25,680
have a tribe. He only had his own mind.
8078
06:51:23,280 --> 06:51:29,040
And in that isolation, he found a
8079
06:51:25,680 --> 06:51:32,040
language that didn't require a passport.
8080
06:51:29,040 --> 06:51:32,040
Chess.
8081
06:51:32,558 --> 06:51:36,878
For a child who changed continents
8082
06:51:34,718 --> 06:51:40,240
before he could even make friends, the
8083
06:51:36,878 --> 06:51:43,200
outside world was unpredictable noise.
8084
06:51:40,240 --> 06:51:45,200
But the board, the board was the only
8085
06:51:43,200 --> 06:51:48,400
place where the rules didn't change
8086
06:51:45,200 --> 06:51:51,280
depending on the country.
8087
06:51:48,400 --> 06:51:53,680
His
8088
06:51:51,280 --> 06:51:56,080
father, an engineer trained in a culture
8089
06:51:53,680 --> 06:51:58,478
of precision and systems thinking,
8090
06:51:56,080 --> 06:52:01,920
passed on a belief that reality could be
8091
06:51:58,478 --> 06:52:04,478
understood and optimized.
8092
06:52:01,920 --> 06:52:07,520
While other children sought to fit in,
8093
06:52:04,478 --> 06:52:10,320
Peter sought the edge. He learned that
8094
06:52:07,520 --> 06:52:12,000
the consensus of the crowd is usually a
8095
06:52:10,320 --> 06:52:14,558
distraction.
8096
06:52:12,000 --> 06:52:17,200
If everyone is running toward the ball,
8097
06:52:14,558 --> 06:52:18,878
you run toward where the ball is going
8098
06:52:17,200 --> 06:52:21,040
to be.
8099
06:52:18,878 --> 06:52:22,878
Chess is the ultimate antidote to
8100
06:52:21,040 --> 06:52:24,798
consensus.
8101
06:52:22,878 --> 06:52:27,520
In a crowd, you can hide behind a
8102
06:52:24,798 --> 06:52:30,638
popular opinion. In chess, you are
8103
06:52:27,520 --> 06:52:32,878
either right or you are dead. There is
8104
06:52:30,638 --> 06:52:35,520
no middle ground. There is no social
8105
06:52:32,878 --> 06:52:37,520
construction of the board.
8106
06:52:35,520 --> 06:52:40,160
He became a serious tournament chess
8107
06:52:37,520 --> 06:52:42,958
player drawn to a world where rules were
8108
06:52:40,160 --> 06:52:46,718
fixed, outcomes were earned, and
8109
06:52:42,958 --> 06:52:51,040
consensus meant nothing.
8110
06:52:46,718 --> 06:52:53,360
Mid1 1980s Stanford University.
8111
06:52:51,040 --> 06:52:55,680
To the world this was the peak of
8112
06:52:53,360 --> 06:52:59,920
American meritocracy.
8113
06:52:55,680 --> 06:53:02,000
To Theel it was a factory of conformity.
8114
06:52:59,920 --> 06:53:04,400
While his classmates were debating how
8115
06:53:02,000 --> 06:53:06,638
to change the world through activism,
8116
06:53:04,400 --> 06:53:09,280
Theel was wondering why they all sounded
8117
06:53:06,638 --> 06:53:11,360
exactly the same. He saw the
8118
06:53:09,280 --> 06:53:13,520
multiculturalism movement not as
8119
06:53:11,360 --> 06:53:15,680
progress but as a new form of
8120
06:53:13,520 --> 06:53:18,320
fundamentalism.
8121
06:53:15,680 --> 06:53:21,360
Stanford in the late 1980s was ground
8122
06:53:18,320 --> 06:53:24,160
zero for America's culture wars, battles
8123
06:53:21,360 --> 06:53:27,200
over multiculturalism, speech, and the
8124
06:53:24,160 --> 06:53:29,520
purpose of higher education.
8125
06:53:27,200 --> 06:53:32,878
Field believed the university was
8126
06:53:29,520 --> 06:53:34,638
drifting toward ideological conformity,
8127
06:53:32,878 --> 06:53:38,080
that certain views were becoming
8128
06:53:34,638 --> 06:53:41,760
socially, if not formally, offlimits.
8129
06:53:38,080 --> 06:53:44,798
Here is investment methodology was born.
8130
06:53:41,760 --> 06:53:48,000
Identify what the crowd considers sacred
8131
06:53:44,798 --> 06:53:51,440
and question it.
8132
06:53:48,000 --> 06:53:54,400
If everyone says identity diversity is
8133
06:53:51,440 --> 06:53:57,360
the most important thing, you argue that
8134
06:53:54,400 --> 06:53:59,440
intellectual diversity is the only thing
8135
06:53:57,360 --> 06:54:01,680
that matters.
8136
06:53:59,440 --> 06:54:04,878
He wasn't looking for friends. He was
8137
06:54:01,680 --> 06:54:07,760
looking to recruit others who like him
8138
06:54:04,878 --> 06:54:11,120
did not fear being hated.
8139
06:54:07,760 --> 06:54:13,440
He founded the Stanford Review. The
8140
06:54:11,120 --> 06:54:16,718
paper quickly became one of the most
8141
06:54:13,440 --> 06:54:19,520
controversial publications on campus,
8142
06:54:16,718 --> 06:54:23,360
attacking what field saw as intellectual
8143
06:54:19,520 --> 06:54:25,520
monoculture and political group think.
8144
06:54:23,360 --> 06:54:27,920
He saw that the smartest people in the
8145
06:54:25,520 --> 06:54:31,120
country were all competing for the same
8146
06:54:27,920 --> 06:54:32,878
narrow prizes, thinking the same narrow
8147
06:54:31,120 --> 06:54:36,240
thoughts.
8148
06:54:32,878 --> 06:54:39,760
He did what every top student does. He
8149
06:54:36,240 --> 06:54:42,000
followed the track. After Stanford Law,
8150
06:54:39,760 --> 06:54:44,320
he secured a prestigious federal
8151
06:54:42,000 --> 06:54:46,638
appalate clerkship, the kind of
8152
06:54:44,320 --> 06:54:48,478
credential that opens every elite door
8153
06:54:46,638 --> 06:54:50,718
in America.
8154
06:54:48,478 --> 06:54:53,200
After his clerkship, he joined Sullivan
8155
06:54:50,718 --> 06:54:56,478
and Cromwell in New York, one of the
8156
06:54:53,200 --> 06:54:59,120
most elite law firms in the world. On
8157
06:54:56,478 --> 06:55:03,840
paper, he had reached the summit. Wall
8158
06:54:59,120 --> 06:55:06,080
Street was his great negative epiphany.
8159
06:55:03,840 --> 06:55:08,240
But from his perspective, the brightest
8160
06:55:06,080 --> 06:55:10,320
graduates in America were locked in
8161
06:55:08,240 --> 06:55:13,280
brutal competition for careers they
8162
06:55:10,320 --> 06:55:15,680
didn't even seem to want.
8163
06:55:13,280 --> 06:55:18,400
It looked like Renee Gerard's theory
8164
06:55:15,680 --> 06:55:20,718
made flesh, a system where everyone
8165
06:55:18,400 --> 06:55:23,840
desired the same prize simply because
8166
06:55:20,718 --> 06:55:26,638
everyone else did. Wall Street looked at
8167
06:55:23,840 --> 06:55:29,680
Theo like a laboratory of mimemetic
8168
06:55:26,638 --> 06:55:32,240
rivalry. He realized that if he won that
8169
06:55:29,680 --> 06:55:35,520
race, his prize would be becoming the
8170
06:55:32,240 --> 06:55:38,798
man in the office next door. A copy of a
8171
06:55:35,520 --> 06:55:41,600
copy. The day he lost the opportunity to
8172
06:55:38,798 --> 06:55:45,120
clerk for the US Supreme Court wasn't a
8173
06:55:41,600 --> 06:55:48,400
defeat. It was his liberation.
8174
06:55:45,120 --> 06:55:51,040
He lasted less than a year. But Theo's
8175
06:55:48,400 --> 06:55:53,840
first venture after leaving law was a
8176
06:55:51,040 --> 06:55:55,760
humbling lesson in failure. A lesson
8177
06:55:53,840 --> 06:55:58,718
that would shape everything that came
8178
06:55:55,760 --> 06:56:02,000
after.
8179
06:55:58,718 --> 06:56:04,718
In 1996, he launched Theel Capital
8180
06:56:02,000 --> 06:56:07,680
Management,
8181
06:56:04,718 --> 06:56:10,878
a hedge fund focused on currency trading
8182
06:56:07,680 --> 06:56:13,680
and macroeconomic derivatives.
8183
06:56:10,878 --> 06:56:16,400
The strategy was to make big directional
8184
06:56:13,680 --> 06:56:18,718
bets on interest rates, inflation
8185
06:56:16,400 --> 06:56:22,478
expectations, and foreign exchange
8186
06:56:18,718 --> 06:56:26,000
movements. Initial capital raised $1
8187
06:56:22,478 --> 06:56:28,160
million mostly from Stanford connections
8188
06:56:26,000 --> 06:56:32,040
who believed in the chess prodigy turned
8189
06:56:28,160 --> 06:56:32,040
lawyer turned financia.
8190
06:56:32,878 --> 06:56:38,240
The result was spectacular failure.
8191
06:56:36,000 --> 06:56:41,520
Within the first year, the fund had lost
8192
06:56:38,240 --> 06:56:45,040
significant capital. Industry estimates
8193
06:56:41,520 --> 06:56:49,040
suggest losses between 30 and 40% of the
8194
06:56:45,040 --> 06:56:51,360
initial investment pool. Investors fled.
8195
06:56:49,040 --> 06:56:53,360
Some demanded their remaining money back
8196
06:56:51,360 --> 06:56:55,760
immediately.
8197
06:56:53,360 --> 06:56:57,920
The reputation among finance
8198
06:56:55,760 --> 06:57:00,240
professionals, the people he had walked
8199
06:56:57,920 --> 06:57:02,878
away from at Sullivan and Cromwell, took
8200
06:57:00,240 --> 06:57:06,160
a serious hit.
8201
06:57:02,878 --> 06:57:09,440
He was no longer the Stanford genius. He
8202
06:57:06,160 --> 06:57:11,920
was just another failed trader.
8203
06:57:09,440 --> 06:57:14,400
But this failure taught him the most
8204
06:57:11,920 --> 06:57:17,440
important lesson of his career.
8205
06:57:14,400 --> 06:57:19,840
Competition is for losers.
8206
06:57:17,440 --> 06:57:22,558
Do not compete in crowded markets where
8207
06:57:19,840 --> 06:57:26,240
everyone is making the same trades with
8208
06:57:22,558 --> 06:57:28,638
the same information and the same tools.
8209
06:57:26,240 --> 06:57:31,840
Wall Street was full of extremely smart
8210
06:57:28,638 --> 06:57:34,240
people doing the same macro trades,
8211
06:57:31,840 --> 06:57:37,360
reading the same economic reports,
8212
06:57:34,240 --> 06:57:39,760
betting on the same currency movements.
8213
06:57:37,360 --> 06:57:44,400
It was a zero someum game played by
8214
06:57:39,760 --> 06:57:46,558
thousands of nearly identical players.
8215
06:57:44,400 --> 06:57:49,680
He needed to find a space where the
8216
06:57:46,558 --> 06:57:52,080
rules were still being written. Where
8217
06:57:49,680 --> 06:57:55,360
being first mattered more than being
8218
06:57:52,080 --> 06:57:57,280
best, where a monopoly position was
8219
06:57:55,360 --> 06:57:59,600
still available.
8220
06:57:57,280 --> 06:58:02,000
He needed technology.
8221
06:57:59,600 --> 06:58:05,760
And from the ashes of the capital
8222
06:58:02,000 --> 06:58:08,320
management, a new philosophy was born.
8223
06:58:05,760 --> 06:58:11,600
If you want to create lasting value, you
8224
06:58:08,320 --> 06:58:14,400
have to build a monopoly. This became
8225
06:58:11,600 --> 06:58:18,120
his investing mantra and it would make
8226
06:58:14,400 --> 06:58:18,120
him billions.
8227
06:58:19,680 --> 06:58:24,638
Theel walked away from the firm and went
8228
06:58:21,760 --> 06:58:27,520
back to California not to start a tech
8229
06:58:24,638 --> 06:58:31,120
empire but to try trading then to launch
8230
06:58:27,520 --> 06:58:33,360
a hedge fund. It failed. The system he
8231
06:58:31,120 --> 06:58:37,360
had rejected did not welcome him back as
8232
06:58:33,360 --> 06:58:39,360
a prodigy. It treated him like a nobody.
8233
06:58:37,360 --> 06:58:43,280
That failure would become the last
8234
06:58:39,360 --> 06:58:45,680
lesson before his real beginning. But he
8235
06:58:43,280 --> 06:58:48,320
learned something. If you play the
8236
06:58:45,680 --> 06:58:50,320
system game as everyone else, you've
8237
06:58:48,320 --> 06:58:52,320
already lost.
8238
06:58:50,320 --> 06:58:57,958
The chess master was done with the
8239
06:58:52,320 --> 06:58:57,958
board. He was ready to build his own.
8240
06:59:02,958 --> 06:59:06,878
So this is an ATM. What we're going to
8241
06:59:04,878 --> 06:59:08,718
do is transform the traditional banking
8242
06:59:06,878 --> 06:59:12,160
industry.
8243
06:59:08,718 --> 06:59:13,840
>> I do not fit the picture of a banker.
8244
06:59:12,160 --> 06:59:15,920
>> X.com. This is Julie.
8245
06:59:13,840 --> 06:59:18,478
>> Raising $50 million is a matter of
8246
06:59:15,920 --> 06:59:20,718
making a series of phone calls and the
8247
06:59:18,478 --> 06:59:22,638
money is there.
8248
06:59:20,718 --> 06:59:25,200
>> I've sunk the great majority of of my
8249
06:59:22,638 --> 06:59:27,280
net worth into X.com, which is the new
8250
06:59:25,200 --> 06:59:30,000
banking and mutual funds company on the
8251
06:59:27,280 --> 06:59:31,840
internet that I've started. December
8252
06:59:30,000 --> 06:59:34,638
1998,
8253
06:59:31,840 --> 06:59:37,920
Peter Theel co-founds a company called
8254
06:59:34,638 --> 06:59:40,320
Conffinity with Max Levchin, a brilliant
8255
06:59:37,920 --> 06:59:42,718
Ukrainian born programmer, and Luke
8256
06:59:40,320 --> 06:59:44,638
Nosk, a fellow Stanford review
8257
06:59:42,718 --> 06:59:47,840
illuminous.
8258
06:59:44,638 --> 06:59:49,840
Initial funding, $300,000 scraped
8259
06:59:47,840 --> 06:59:52,000
together from friends, family, and
8260
06:59:49,840 --> 06:59:54,080
fellow libertarian true believers from
8261
06:59:52,000 --> 06:59:56,478
the Stamford days.
8262
06:59:54,080 --> 07:00:00,400
The original product idea, digital
8263
06:59:56,478 --> 07:00:02,798
wallets on Palm Pilot handheld devices.
8264
07:00:00,400 --> 07:00:05,360
The vision was that people would beam
8265
07:00:02,798 --> 07:00:08,000
money to each other using infrared ports
8266
07:00:05,360 --> 07:00:10,718
on the Palm Pilots
8267
07:00:08,000 --> 07:00:12,240
in coffee shops, at restaurants,
8268
07:00:10,718 --> 07:00:16,600
persontoerson,
8269
07:00:12,240 --> 07:00:16,600
bypassing banks entirely.
8270
07:00:16,878 --> 07:00:24,958
Total users after 6 months of operation,
8271
07:00:20,478 --> 07:00:27,200
12 people. literally 12.
8272
07:00:24,958 --> 07:00:29,920
Most of them were employees and their
8273
07:00:27,200 --> 07:00:33,520
friends testing the system. It was a
8274
07:00:29,920 --> 07:00:36,478
complete and utter flop. The technology
8275
07:00:33,520 --> 07:00:41,440
worked, but nobody cared. Nobody wanted
8276
07:00:36,478 --> 07:00:44,798
it. March 2000, Confinity pivots hard
8277
07:00:41,440 --> 07:00:47,120
and launches a new feature, email-based
8278
07:00:44,798 --> 07:00:50,240
money transfers.
8279
07:00:47,120 --> 07:00:52,638
You send money to any email address. The
8280
07:00:50,240 --> 07:00:55,120
recipient gets a notification, creates
8281
07:00:52,638 --> 07:00:58,160
an account, and the money is there.
8282
07:00:55,120 --> 07:01:01,600
Simple, instant, revolutionary. The name
8283
07:00:58,160 --> 07:01:04,478
of this new service, PayPal.
8284
07:01:01,600 --> 07:01:07,040
Within weeks, user growth exploded at a
8285
07:01:04,478 --> 07:01:08,718
rate nobody had ever seen in financial
8286
07:01:07,040 --> 07:01:13,280
services.
8287
07:01:08,718 --> 07:01:18,798
Month one, 10,000 users. Month three,
8288
07:01:13,280 --> 07:01:23,760
100,000 users. Month 6, 1 million users.
8289
07:01:18,798 --> 07:01:26,160
Month 12, 5 million users.
8290
07:01:23,760 --> 07:01:28,400
This was the fastest user adoption rate
8291
07:01:26,160 --> 07:01:31,360
in the entire history of financial
8292
07:01:28,400 --> 07:01:33,840
services. Faster than credit cards,
8293
07:01:31,360 --> 07:01:35,840
faster than checking accounts, faster
8294
07:01:33,840 --> 07:01:38,400
than anything.
8295
07:01:35,840 --> 07:01:41,440
But here is what most people do not know
8296
07:01:38,400 --> 07:01:44,798
about PayPal's growth. Here is the
8297
07:01:41,440 --> 07:01:47,920
secret that the mythology leaves out.
8298
07:01:44,798 --> 07:01:52,320
PayPal's explosive user acquisition was
8299
07:01:47,920 --> 07:01:57,200
not organic. It was not word of mouth.
8300
07:01:52,320 --> 07:01:59,520
It was not viral in the natural sense.
8301
07:01:57,200 --> 07:02:03,440
They literally bought their users with
8302
07:01:59,520 --> 07:02:06,240
cash. The strategy was elegantly simple
8303
07:02:03,440 --> 07:02:09,360
and brutally expensive.
8304
07:02:06,240 --> 07:02:12,478
Sign up for a PayPal account, get $10
8305
07:02:09,360 --> 07:02:16,080
deposited instantly. Refer a friend who
8306
07:02:12,478 --> 07:02:20,240
signs up gets another $10. Your friend
8307
07:02:16,080 --> 07:02:23,600
also gets $10. Cost per acquisition 20
8308
07:02:20,240 --> 07:02:27,200
to $40 per user depending on how many
8309
07:02:23,600 --> 07:02:30,478
referrals each user generated.
8310
07:02:27,200 --> 07:02:33,360
Monthly cash burn rate of peak growth 10
8311
07:02:30,478 --> 07:02:36,638
to 12 million
8312
07:02:33,360 --> 07:02:40,240
just vanishing into a user acquisition.
8313
07:02:36,638 --> 07:02:43,680
By late 2000, PayPal was spending 60 to
8314
07:02:40,240 --> 07:02:46,240
70 million annually just to buy users
8315
07:02:43,680 --> 07:02:48,320
with cash incentives.
8316
07:02:46,240 --> 07:02:50,958
They were hemorrhaging money at a
8317
07:02:48,320 --> 07:02:53,520
terrifying rate. Investors were
8318
07:02:50,958 --> 07:02:56,240
panicking. Board members were demanding
8319
07:02:53,520 --> 07:02:58,718
answers.
8320
07:02:56,240 --> 07:03:02,320
How long can you sustain spending $10
8321
07:02:58,718 --> 07:03:05,360
million a month buying users?
8322
07:03:02,320 --> 07:03:08,400
But Theel had done the mathematics. He
8323
07:03:05,360 --> 07:03:11,360
had run the numbers obsessively.
8324
07:03:08,400 --> 07:03:15,120
Each acquired user was worth $100 to
8325
07:03:11,360 --> 07:03:18,000
$200 in lifetime transaction fee revenue
8326
07:03:15,120 --> 07:03:22,478
through the PayPal network. They were
8327
07:03:18,000 --> 07:03:25,680
buying $100 bills for $20 bills. It was
8328
07:03:22,478 --> 07:03:28,958
either genius or insanity depending on
8329
07:03:25,680 --> 07:03:31,360
whether the math actually worked. The
8330
07:03:28,958 --> 07:03:33,680
believed it would work. He bet
8331
07:03:31,360 --> 07:03:36,878
everything on it. But there was a
8332
07:03:33,680 --> 07:03:40,240
problem. a major problem. Another
8333
07:03:36,878 --> 07:03:43,840
company was doing the exact same thing.
8334
07:03:40,240 --> 07:03:47,280
X.com, a finance company founded by Elon
8335
07:03:43,840 --> 07:03:49,280
Musk with money from his Zip 2 exit and
8336
07:03:47,280 --> 07:03:53,600
a vision for online banking that was
8337
07:03:49,280 --> 07:03:57,200
nearly identical to PayPal's.
8338
07:03:53,600 --> 07:04:00,160
Two companies, same idea, same market,
8339
07:03:57,200 --> 07:04:03,680
both burning massive amounts of cash at
8340
07:04:00,160 --> 07:04:06,320
completely unsustainable rates. Total
8341
07:04:03,680 --> 07:04:09,360
funding raised between both companies
8342
07:04:06,320 --> 07:04:12,718
over $100 million.
8343
07:04:09,360 --> 07:04:15,680
Combined monthly cash burn rate over $20
8344
07:04:12,718 --> 07:04:18,400
million time until both companies
8345
07:04:15,680 --> 07:04:21,600
simultaneously ran out of money less
8346
07:04:18,400 --> 07:04:24,400
than 6 months.
8347
07:04:21,600 --> 07:04:28,000
The merger was inevitable.
8348
07:04:24,400 --> 07:04:31,040
X.com and Confinity merged into a single
8349
07:04:28,000 --> 07:04:33,360
entity. The combined company kept the
8350
07:04:31,040 --> 07:04:37,120
PayPal name because users had already
8351
07:04:33,360 --> 07:04:39,680
adopted it. The brand had momentum. Elon
8352
07:04:37,120 --> 07:04:45,080
Musk became chief executive officer of
8353
07:04:39,680 --> 07:04:45,080
the merged company for 5 months.
8354
07:04:46,400 --> 07:04:52,718
October 2000, while Elon Musk was on his
8355
07:04:50,080 --> 07:04:55,440
honeymoon, the board of directors led by
8356
07:04:52,718 --> 07:04:58,638
Peter Theel and other Confinity founders
8357
07:04:55,440 --> 07:05:01,200
held an emergency meeting and voted Musk
8358
07:04:58,638 --> 07:05:03,920
out as CEO.
8359
07:05:01,200 --> 07:05:07,040
The official reason cited strategic
8360
07:05:03,920 --> 07:05:10,320
disagreements over technology platform.
8361
07:05:07,040 --> 07:05:12,638
Musk wanted to use Microsoft software.
8362
07:05:10,320 --> 07:05:16,478
The Confinity engineers believed in
8363
07:05:12,638 --> 07:05:20,240
Unixbased systems. The actual reason
8364
07:05:16,478 --> 07:05:24,080
Theel wanted control, full control. This
8365
07:05:20,240 --> 07:05:26,240
was his company now.
8366
07:05:24,080 --> 07:05:29,600
Peter Theel became chief executive
8367
07:05:26,240 --> 07:05:32,080
officer of PayPal. Elon Musk remained a
8368
07:05:29,600 --> 07:05:35,840
major shareholder, but his operational
8369
07:05:32,080 --> 07:05:38,718
control was finished.
8370
07:05:35,840 --> 07:05:41,120
The two men, both future billionaires,
8371
07:05:38,718 --> 07:05:45,360
both future power brokers, had their
8372
07:05:41,120 --> 07:05:48,160
first battle. feel one. At its core,
8373
07:05:45,360 --> 07:05:50,878
PayPal ran on a simple idea that turned
8374
07:05:48,160 --> 07:05:53,360
into a powerful engine.
8375
07:05:50,878 --> 07:05:57,440
Every time money moved, PayPal took a
8376
07:05:53,360 --> 07:05:59,920
small cut, 2.9% plus 30 cents per
8377
07:05:57,440 --> 07:06:02,558
transaction. If that money crossed
8378
07:05:59,920 --> 07:06:05,040
borders, the fee climbed to between 2
8379
07:06:02,558 --> 07:06:07,200
1/2 and 4%.
8380
07:06:05,040 --> 07:06:09,120
Then there was the float, the cash
8381
07:06:07,200 --> 07:06:11,680
sitting in PayPal's accounts between
8382
07:06:09,120 --> 07:06:15,040
payments, quietly earning interest for
8383
07:06:11,680 --> 07:06:17,280
the company. Tiny slices repeated
8384
07:06:15,040 --> 07:06:20,400
millions of times.
8385
07:06:17,280 --> 07:06:24,160
By 2001, the numbers told the story of a
8386
07:06:20,400 --> 07:06:27,040
system coming to life. Every single day,
8387
07:06:24,160 --> 07:06:30,080
5 to8 million flowed through PayPal's
8388
07:06:27,040 --> 07:06:35,040
network. Each month, that translated
8389
07:06:30,080 --> 07:06:38,000
into 10 to$15 million in revenue.
8390
07:06:35,040 --> 07:06:40,558
But growth at this speed came at a cost.
8391
07:06:38,000 --> 07:06:43,440
Running the system, fighting fraud,
8392
07:06:40,558 --> 07:06:48,558
scaling infrastructure, acquiring users
8393
07:06:43,440 --> 07:06:50,878
was burning 20 to30 million every month.
8394
07:06:48,558 --> 07:06:53,280
The machine worked, it just wasn't
8395
07:06:50,878 --> 07:06:55,280
profitable yet.
8396
07:06:53,280 --> 07:06:57,840
Late 2000,
8397
07:06:55,280 --> 07:07:01,520
PayPal's data scientists discovered
8398
07:06:57,840 --> 07:07:03,920
something crucial. 70% of all PayPal
8399
07:07:01,520 --> 07:07:05,600
transactions were happening on eBay
8400
07:07:03,920 --> 07:07:07,840
auctions.
8401
07:07:05,600 --> 07:07:10,400
People buying and selling random items
8402
07:07:07,840 --> 07:07:13,840
on the internet's largest marketplace
8403
07:07:10,400 --> 07:07:16,160
were using PayPal to move money. The
8404
07:07:13,840 --> 07:07:19,520
strategic insight became immediately
8405
07:07:16,160 --> 07:07:23,680
clear. Make PayPal the only payment
8406
07:07:19,520 --> 07:07:27,680
method that eBay users trust completely.
8407
07:07:23,680 --> 07:07:30,320
Own that market, become indispensable.
8408
07:07:27,680 --> 07:07:32,638
The execution buyer protection
8409
07:07:30,320 --> 07:07:35,440
guarantees that eBay's own payment
8410
07:07:32,638 --> 07:07:38,080
system did not offer
8411
07:07:35,440 --> 07:07:41,958
instant payment transfers with no 7-day
8412
07:07:38,080 --> 07:07:41,958
check clearing period.
8413
07:07:42,400 --> 07:07:47,520
Fraud detection algorithms that were
8414
07:07:44,558 --> 07:07:50,400
better than credit card companies. Email
8415
07:07:47,520 --> 07:07:54,878
notifications for every transaction.
8416
07:07:50,400 --> 07:07:58,240
Simple, clean user interface.
8417
07:07:54,878 --> 07:08:02,000
By mid 2001, the strategy was working
8418
07:07:58,240 --> 07:08:04,718
beyond all projections. 50% of all eBay
8419
07:08:02,000 --> 07:08:08,400
auctions accepted PayPal as a payment
8420
07:08:04,718 --> 07:08:10,878
method. PayPal was processing $50
8421
07:08:08,400 --> 07:08:13,840
million daily in eBay related
8422
07:08:10,878 --> 07:08:19,040
transactions alone. And then eBay
8423
07:08:13,840 --> 07:08:21,120
noticed and eBay was not happy.
8424
07:08:19,040 --> 07:08:23,440
eBay launched their own competing
8425
07:08:21,120 --> 07:08:26,240
service called Billpoint and attempted
8426
07:08:23,440 --> 07:08:28,400
to kill PayPal through the marketplace.
8427
07:08:26,240 --> 07:08:31,440
They promoted Billoint in search
8428
07:08:28,400 --> 07:08:34,160
rankings. They penalized sellers who
8429
07:08:31,440 --> 07:08:37,280
only accepted PayPal. They made it
8430
07:08:34,160 --> 07:08:39,040
harder to display the PayPal logo. It
8431
07:08:37,280 --> 07:08:42,080
was war.
8432
07:08:39,040 --> 07:08:44,718
PayPal's response was total war.
8433
07:08:42,080 --> 07:08:47,280
Temporarily lower transaction fees to
8434
07:08:44,718 --> 07:08:49,440
undercut Billoint.
8435
07:08:47,280 --> 07:08:52,638
Guarantee faster money transfers than
8436
07:08:49,440 --> 07:08:56,320
eBay could offer. Invest heavily in
8437
07:08:52,638 --> 07:08:59,360
superior $30 million deployed in 2001
8438
07:08:56,320 --> 07:09:01,920
fraud protection. Massive marketing
8439
07:08:59,360 --> 07:09:05,680
spending alone.
8440
07:09:01,920 --> 07:09:10,000
By early 2002, the war was over. PayPal
8441
07:09:05,680 --> 07:09:14,000
controlled 65% of eBay's payment market.
8442
07:09:10,000 --> 07:09:16,320
Bill point at barely 10%.
8443
07:09:14,000 --> 07:09:18,638
eBay executives looked at the numbers
8444
07:09:16,320 --> 07:09:24,000
and reached the conclusion, if you
8445
07:09:18,638 --> 07:09:28,160
cannot beat them, buy them. July 2002,
8446
07:09:24,000 --> 07:09:30,240
eBay acquires PayPal for $1.5 billion in
8447
07:09:28,160 --> 07:09:33,920
eBay stock.
8448
07:09:30,240 --> 07:09:36,798
Peter Theal owned approximately $3.7% of
8449
07:09:33,920 --> 07:09:40,000
PayPal at the time of the acquisition.
8450
07:09:36,798 --> 07:09:43,520
His equity stake was worth $55 million
8451
07:09:40,000 --> 07:09:46,000
in eBay stock. After taxes, he walked
8452
07:09:43,520 --> 07:09:49,920
away with approximately $40 million in
8453
07:09:46,000 --> 07:09:53,520
liquid wealth. At age 34, he had won his
8454
07:09:49,920 --> 07:09:55,520
first billion dollar game.
8455
07:09:53,520 --> 07:09:58,878
But the money was not the most valuable
8456
07:09:55,520 --> 07:10:02,878
thing he extracted from PayPal. The real
8457
07:09:58,878 --> 07:10:05,280
value was the network, the PayPal mafia,
8458
07:10:02,878 --> 07:10:09,280
the name they gave themselves. And it
8459
07:10:05,280 --> 07:10:12,080
was not ironic. It was descriptive. The
8460
07:10:09,280 --> 07:10:14,160
core team that Theel assembled at PayPal
8461
07:10:12,080 --> 07:10:17,360
would go on to create some of the most
8462
07:10:14,160 --> 07:10:23,360
valuable companies in human history.
8463
07:10:17,360 --> 07:10:28,240
Elon Musk Tesla market cap $650 billion.
8464
07:10:23,360 --> 07:10:31,280
SpaceX estimated value $150 billion.
8465
07:10:28,240 --> 07:10:34,240
Reed Hoffman LinkedIn sold to Microsoft
8466
07:10:31,280 --> 07:10:38,320
for $26 billion.
8467
07:10:34,240 --> 07:10:43,120
Steve Chen, Chad Hurley, Jawed Kareem.
8468
07:10:38,320 --> 07:10:47,958
YouTube sold to Google for 1.65 billion,
8469
07:10:43,120 --> 07:10:47,958
now worth over 100 billion.
8470
07:10:48,240 --> 07:10:54,958
Jeremy Stoppleman and Russell Simmons,
8471
07:10:50,878 --> 07:10:58,000
Yelp, peaked at $3 billion market cap.
8472
07:10:54,958 --> 07:11:01,120
David Saxs, Yammer, sold to Microsoft
8473
07:10:58,000 --> 07:11:04,080
for $1.2 billion.
8474
07:11:01,120 --> 07:11:08,320
later founded Craft Ventures. Max
8475
07:11:04,080 --> 07:11:13,440
Levchin, a firm $12 billion company.
8476
07:11:08,320 --> 07:11:16,240
Also co-founded Yelp. Keith Rabo, COO of
8477
07:11:13,440 --> 07:11:20,920
Square, partner at Founders Fund,
8478
07:11:16,240 --> 07:11:20,920
investor in dozens of unicorns.
8479
07:11:21,040 --> 07:11:27,760
Roloff Bofer, partner at Seoia Capital,
8480
07:11:24,958 --> 07:11:32,320
led investments in Instagram, YouTube,
8481
07:11:27,760 --> 07:11:35,360
Tumblr, MongoDB, Eventbrite.
8482
07:11:32,320 --> 07:11:37,280
Total value created by the PayPal mafia
8483
07:11:35,360 --> 07:11:40,798
across all their companies,
8484
07:11:37,280 --> 07:11:43,200
conservatively estimated at over $200
8485
07:11:40,798 --> 07:11:45,520
billion in combined market
8486
07:11:43,200 --> 07:11:47,680
capitalization.
8487
07:11:45,520 --> 07:11:49,520
Field's ownership stakes across this
8488
07:11:47,680 --> 07:11:52,718
extended network through direct
8489
07:11:49,520 --> 07:11:55,920
investments and fund positions estimated
8490
07:11:52,718 --> 07:11:57,920
at 2 to4 billion.
8491
07:11:55,920 --> 07:12:01,040
This was not just a company that got
8492
07:11:57,920 --> 07:12:03,920
acquired. This was the creation of the
8493
07:12:01,040 --> 07:12:07,320
most powerful business cartel in Silicon
8494
07:12:03,920 --> 07:12:07,320
Valley history.
8495
07:12:07,520 --> 07:12:13,040
But what made PayPal different was not
8496
07:12:10,080 --> 07:12:15,440
the technology. Not really. The
8497
07:12:13,040 --> 07:12:17,040
technology was impressive but not
8498
07:12:15,440 --> 07:12:19,120
miraculous.
8499
07:12:17,040 --> 07:12:21,920
What made PayPal different was the
8500
07:12:19,120 --> 07:12:23,760
culture, the religion of extreme
8501
07:12:21,920 --> 07:12:26,798
meritocracy.
8502
07:12:23,760 --> 07:12:28,718
The hiring criteria were brutally
8503
07:12:26,798 --> 07:12:32,558
specific.
8504
07:12:28,718 --> 07:12:35,920
One raw intelligence, high test scores,
8505
07:12:32,558 --> 07:12:37,840
ability to solve complex puzzles, proof
8506
07:12:35,920 --> 07:12:41,360
you could think better than everyone
8507
07:12:37,840 --> 07:12:44,400
else. Two, intensity.
8508
07:12:41,360 --> 07:12:46,320
Are you willing to work 100hour weeks?
8509
07:12:44,400 --> 07:12:49,120
Are you willing to sacrifice everything
8510
07:12:46,320 --> 07:12:52,798
else in your life for the mission?
8511
07:12:49,120 --> 07:12:55,600
Three, missionary zeal. Do you actually
8512
07:12:52,798 --> 07:12:58,320
believe we are changing the world or are
8513
07:12:55,600 --> 07:13:01,600
you here for a paycheck?
8514
07:12:58,320 --> 07:13:03,760
Four, loyalty to the tribe. Will you
8515
07:13:01,600 --> 07:13:07,120
protect the other members? Will you put
8516
07:13:03,760 --> 07:13:10,478
the group above yourself?
8517
07:13:07,120 --> 07:13:16,000
Average employee age at PayPal 25 years
8518
07:13:10,478 --> 07:13:18,320
old. Average work week 80 to 100 hours.
8519
07:13:16,000 --> 07:13:20,878
Office culture libertarian,
8520
07:13:18,320 --> 07:13:22,718
anti-regulation, contrarian,
8521
07:13:20,878 --> 07:13:24,798
anti-establishment.
8522
07:13:22,718 --> 07:13:27,280
They called themselves the mafia
8523
07:13:24,798 --> 07:13:30,840
specifically because loyalty mattered
8524
07:13:27,280 --> 07:13:30,840
more than credentials,
8525
07:13:32,080 --> 07:13:37,600
more than degrees, more than previous
8526
07:13:34,240 --> 07:13:40,478
experience. Theel's operating principle
8527
07:13:37,600 --> 07:13:42,798
stated explicitly and repeatedly,
8528
07:13:40,478 --> 07:13:45,040
talented people do not want to work with
8529
07:13:42,798 --> 07:13:48,558
people who are less talented than they
8530
07:13:45,040 --> 07:13:50,638
are. So every new hire must be more
8531
07:13:48,558 --> 07:13:54,000
talented than the average current
8532
07:13:50,638 --> 07:13:56,718
employee. Otherwise, we are diluting the
8533
07:13:54,000 --> 07:14:00,080
talent pool. This created a
8534
07:13:56,718 --> 07:14:03,200
self-reinforcing escalation, an arms
8535
07:14:00,080 --> 07:14:06,400
race of hiring. Every new person raised
8536
07:14:03,200 --> 07:14:10,000
the bar. The standards became higher and
8537
07:14:06,400 --> 07:14:12,798
higher. Only the absolute best could get
8538
07:14:10,000 --> 07:14:15,840
in. And once you were in, you were
8539
07:14:12,798 --> 07:14:18,320
family. But here is what most people
8540
07:14:15,840 --> 07:14:20,400
forget about PayPal. Here is the
8541
07:14:18,320 --> 07:14:23,200
original vision that got erased from the
8542
07:14:20,400 --> 07:14:26,320
mythology. PayPal was supposed to
8543
07:14:23,200 --> 07:14:28,638
destroy the Federal Reserve. It was
8544
07:14:26,320 --> 07:14:32,000
supposed to undermine state control of
8545
07:14:28,638 --> 07:14:33,760
currency. That was the actual mission.
8546
07:14:32,000 --> 07:14:38,558
That was why Peter Theal, the
8547
07:14:33,760 --> 07:14:41,120
libertarian ideologue, cared so much.
8548
07:14:38,558 --> 07:14:44,000
The original vision laid out in Theo's
8549
07:14:41,120 --> 07:14:47,440
founding documents create a new digital
8550
07:14:44,000 --> 07:14:50,160
currency outside government control.
8551
07:14:47,440 --> 07:14:53,200
Enable true peer-to-peer transactions
8552
07:14:50,160 --> 07:14:55,520
globally without state intermediaries.
8553
07:14:53,200 --> 07:14:58,400
Undermine the state monopoly on money
8554
07:14:55,520 --> 07:15:00,958
creation and management.
8555
07:14:58,400 --> 07:15:03,200
build the financial infrastructure for a
8556
07:15:00,958 --> 07:15:05,680
stateless society.
8557
07:15:03,200 --> 07:15:08,638
What actually happened? To become
8558
07:15:05,680 --> 07:15:11,120
mainstream, to actually scale, PayPal
8559
07:15:08,638 --> 07:15:13,440
had to compromise every single founding
8560
07:15:11,120 --> 07:15:16,400
principle. They had to integrate with
8561
07:15:13,440 --> 07:15:19,360
the traditional banking system, the
8562
07:15:16,400 --> 07:15:21,600
enemy. They had to comply with know your
8563
07:15:19,360 --> 07:15:23,120
customer and anti-moneyaundering
8564
07:15:21,600 --> 07:15:25,280
regulations,
8565
07:15:23,120 --> 07:15:27,120
government control.
8566
07:15:25,280 --> 07:15:29,840
They had to partner with credit card
8567
07:15:27,120 --> 07:15:32,638
companies, the old system they wanted to
8568
07:15:29,840 --> 07:15:36,160
destroy. They had to get licensed in
8569
07:15:32,638 --> 07:15:38,080
every single state. Regulatory capture.
8570
07:15:36,160 --> 07:15:40,958
They had to report suspicious
8571
07:15:38,080 --> 07:15:44,478
transactions to federal authorities.
8572
07:15:40,958 --> 07:15:48,240
Surveillance. By 2002, PayPal was
8573
07:15:44,478 --> 07:15:50,958
regulated exactly like a bank. Partnered
8574
07:15:48,240 --> 07:15:53,840
with banks, dependent on banks for all
8575
07:15:50,958 --> 07:15:56,080
core functionalities. The libertarian
8576
07:15:53,840 --> 07:15:58,160
revolution had become just another
8577
07:15:56,080 --> 07:16:00,478
fintech company playing by the
8578
07:15:58,160 --> 07:16:02,798
government's rules.
8579
07:16:00,478 --> 07:16:04,878
The learned the most important lesson of
8580
07:16:02,798 --> 07:16:07,760
his career from PayPal's failure to
8581
07:16:04,878 --> 07:16:10,240
achieve its revolutionary mission. You
8582
07:16:07,760 --> 07:16:13,120
cannot disrupt the system from inside
8583
07:16:10,240 --> 07:16:15,440
the system. If you want to change the
8584
07:16:13,120 --> 07:16:18,320
rules, you cannot ask permission from
8585
07:16:15,440 --> 07:16:21,040
the people who wrote them. This lesson
8586
07:16:18,320 --> 07:16:25,240
would shape everything he did next.
8587
07:16:21,040 --> 07:16:25,240
Palanteer, Facebook,
8588
07:16:25,280 --> 07:16:31,600
his political investments, everything.
8589
07:16:29,360 --> 07:16:34,798
The PayPal acquisition was not an
8590
07:16:31,600 --> 07:16:37,440
ending. It was a beginning, the start of
8591
07:16:34,798 --> 07:16:40,478
something much larger. The pattern that
8592
07:16:37,440 --> 07:16:42,798
emerged over the next 20 years. PayPal
8593
07:16:40,478 --> 07:16:45,040
veterans leave and start new companies
8594
07:16:42,798 --> 07:16:48,240
in different sectors.
8595
07:16:45,040 --> 07:16:51,120
Theel invests early as angel investor or
8596
07:16:48,240 --> 07:16:52,958
through founders fund. PayPal mafia
8597
07:16:51,120 --> 07:16:55,840
members join each other's boards of
8598
07:16:52,958 --> 07:16:58,718
directors. Cross investment between all
8599
07:16:55,840 --> 07:17:01,360
their venture funds creates alignment.
8600
07:16:58,718 --> 07:17:03,680
Preferential access to deal flow because
8601
07:17:01,360 --> 07:17:05,600
of network relationships.
8602
07:17:03,680 --> 07:17:08,400
Shared intelligence about markets,
8603
07:17:05,600 --> 07:17:10,320
technology, and opportunities.
8604
07:17:08,400 --> 07:17:13,840
Real examples of how the network
8605
07:17:10,320 --> 07:17:17,440
compounds. Reed Hoffman introduces Theel
8606
07:17:13,840 --> 07:17:21,440
to Mark Zuckerberg in 2004.
8607
07:17:17,440 --> 07:17:25,120
Theel invests $500,000 in Facebook,
8608
07:17:21,440 --> 07:17:28,320
eventually makes over $1 billion.
8609
07:17:25,120 --> 07:17:30,478
Roloff Botha joins Sequoia Capital and
8610
07:17:28,320 --> 07:17:32,958
invests in multiple Theelbacked
8611
07:17:30,478 --> 07:17:34,558
companies, creating reciprocal deal
8612
07:17:32,958 --> 07:17:37,120
flows.
8613
07:17:34,558 --> 07:17:40,080
David Saxs hosts high dollar fundraisers
8614
07:17:37,120 --> 07:17:44,360
for Theo's political candidates, mixing
8615
07:17:40,080 --> 07:17:44,360
business and politics seamlessly.
8616
07:17:44,478 --> 07:17:50,638
Max Levchim provides seed capital for
8617
07:17:47,120 --> 07:17:52,638
Palanteer and serves as advisor lending
8618
07:17:50,638 --> 07:17:54,878
credibility.
8619
07:17:52,638 --> 07:17:58,878
This network effect multiplier is
8620
07:17:54,878 --> 07:18:02,400
precisely how Theel turned $55 million
8621
07:17:58,878 --> 07:18:04,400
from PayPal into over $5 billion in net
8622
07:18:02,400 --> 07:18:07,760
worth today.
8623
07:18:04,400 --> 07:18:10,320
The PayPal mafia is not a cute nickname.
8624
07:18:07,760 --> 07:18:12,798
It is not a metaphor. It is the most
8625
07:18:10,320 --> 07:18:15,120
successful organized business cartel in
8626
07:18:12,798 --> 07:18:17,840
Silicon Valley history.
8627
07:18:15,120 --> 07:18:20,160
A self-reinforcing network of wealth,
8628
07:18:17,840 --> 07:18:22,478
power, and influence that has shaped the
8629
07:18:20,160 --> 07:18:25,680
entire technology industry for two
8630
07:18:22,478 --> 07:18:30,760
decades. And Peter Theal sits at the
8631
07:18:25,680 --> 07:18:30,760
center of it all. The Godfather.
8632
07:18:36,080 --> 07:18:41,280
After PayPal, Peter Theel was a man with
8633
07:18:39,040 --> 07:18:44,478
a billion dollars and a dangerous
8634
07:18:41,280 --> 07:18:46,240
secret. While other investors were
8635
07:18:44,478 --> 07:18:48,958
looking at spreadsheets and profit
8636
07:18:46,240 --> 07:18:51,280
margins, Theel was looking at the human
8637
07:18:48,958 --> 07:18:53,280
soul through the eyes of his mentor,
8638
07:18:51,280 --> 07:18:56,558
Renee Gerard.
8639
07:18:53,280 --> 07:19:00,000
Gerard taught him a terrifying truth.
8640
07:18:56,558 --> 07:19:03,120
Human beings don't know what they want.
8641
07:19:00,000 --> 07:19:05,840
We are mimemetic creatures. We don't
8642
07:19:03,120 --> 07:19:08,400
desire things for themselves. We desire
8643
07:19:05,840 --> 07:19:10,878
them because other people desire them.
8644
07:19:08,400 --> 07:19:13,840
We are copy machines disguised as
8645
07:19:10,878 --> 07:19:16,478
individuals.
8646
07:19:13,840 --> 07:19:19,200
August 2004.
8647
07:19:16,478 --> 07:19:22,478
Facebook has been online for exactly 6
8648
07:19:19,200 --> 07:19:24,958
months. It started as a Harvard dorm
8649
07:19:22,478 --> 07:19:27,920
project and has now expanded to several
8650
07:19:24,958 --> 07:19:31,200
college campuses.
8651
07:19:27,920 --> 07:19:35,040
The metrics that Zuckerberg shows Theel
8652
07:19:31,200 --> 07:19:38,400
total registered users 200,000
8653
07:19:35,040 --> 07:19:42,000
almost entirely college students
8654
07:19:38,400 --> 07:19:43,600
daily active user rate 70 to 80%
8655
07:19:42,000 --> 07:19:48,400
engagement
8656
07:19:43,600 --> 07:19:51,280
unprecedented in web services revenue $0
8657
07:19:48,400 --> 07:19:55,360
no business model yet valuation
8658
07:19:51,280 --> 07:19:57,200
Zuckerberg is asking for $5 million
8659
07:19:55,360 --> 07:19:59,760
every single professional venture
8660
07:19:57,200 --> 07:20:02,558
capitalist in Silicon Valley has passed
8661
07:19:59,760 --> 07:20:05,680
on Facebook. Every major firm has looked
8662
07:20:02,558 --> 07:20:09,040
into it and said no. The reasons they
8663
07:20:05,680 --> 07:20:12,718
gave it is just a college directory.
8664
07:20:09,040 --> 07:20:15,040
Limited market. Fster has already 5
8665
07:20:12,718 --> 07:20:18,000
million users and is the leader in
8666
07:20:15,040 --> 07:20:21,120
social networking. MySpace is dominant
8667
07:20:18,000 --> 07:20:23,520
with 8 million users and growing fast.
8668
07:20:21,120 --> 07:20:26,958
There is no obvious business model or
8669
07:20:23,520 --> 07:20:30,240
revenue stream. Mark Zuckerberg is too
8670
07:20:26,958 --> 07:20:32,718
young, too inexperienced, too risky as a
8671
07:20:30,240 --> 07:20:35,040
founder.
8672
07:20:32,718 --> 07:20:37,600
Peter Theel saw something completely
8673
07:20:35,040 --> 07:20:39,760
different, something that had nothing to
8674
07:20:37,600 --> 07:20:42,160
do with technology.
8675
07:20:39,760 --> 07:20:45,200
Theel had spent years studying Renee
8676
07:20:42,160 --> 07:20:47,200
Gerard's mimemetic theory, the
8677
07:20:45,200 --> 07:20:50,558
philosophical framework that would shape
8678
07:20:47,200 --> 07:20:53,600
his entire investment approach. The core
8679
07:20:50,558 --> 07:20:54,878
idea, humans do not have original
8680
07:20:53,600 --> 07:20:58,320
desires.
8681
07:20:54,878 --> 07:21:00,638
We desire what other people desire. We
8682
07:20:58,320 --> 07:21:05,280
learn what to want by watching other
8683
07:21:00,638 --> 07:21:09,680
people want. Desire is imitative. Desire
8684
07:21:05,280 --> 07:21:11,840
is social. Desire is mimemetic.
8685
07:21:09,680 --> 07:21:13,840
When Theel looked at Facebook, he did
8686
07:21:11,840 --> 07:21:16,638
not see a technology platform for
8687
07:21:13,840 --> 07:21:19,040
connecting friends. He saw something far
8688
07:21:16,638 --> 07:21:22,240
more powerful. He saw the perfect
8689
07:21:19,040 --> 07:21:25,280
mimemetic desire machine. The insight
8690
07:21:22,240 --> 07:21:27,280
that made Theel invest. Social networks
8691
07:21:25,280 --> 07:21:30,320
do not create value by connecting
8692
07:21:27,280 --> 07:21:33,360
people. That is not where the money is.
8693
07:21:30,320 --> 07:21:35,600
The money is in comparison. The money is
8694
07:21:33,360 --> 07:21:37,920
in making people compare themselves to
8695
07:21:35,600 --> 07:21:40,638
each other constantly.
8696
07:21:37,920 --> 07:21:43,440
You see your friend's vacation photos,
8697
07:21:40,638 --> 07:21:45,760
you want a better vacation. You see
8698
07:21:43,440 --> 07:21:48,400
someone's job promotion announcement,
8699
07:21:45,760 --> 07:21:51,040
you want higher status. You see
8700
07:21:48,400 --> 07:21:53,680
someone's relationship photos, you want
8701
07:21:51,040 --> 07:21:55,520
romance.
8702
07:21:53,680 --> 07:21:58,798
You see someone getting likes and
8703
07:21:55,520 --> 07:22:01,680
comments, you want validation.
8704
07:21:58,798 --> 07:22:05,040
You see someone's perfect life, you feel
8705
07:22:01,680 --> 07:22:07,840
your own life is inadequate.
8706
07:22:05,040 --> 07:22:11,360
Facebook was not selling connections.
8707
07:22:07,840 --> 07:22:14,000
Facebook was selling envy. And envy,
8708
07:22:11,360 --> 07:22:16,240
Theel understood from Gerard is the most
8709
07:22:14,000 --> 07:22:17,520
powerful economic force in human
8710
07:22:16,240 --> 07:22:20,718
history.
8711
07:22:17,520 --> 07:22:23,520
The desire for what others have. They
8712
07:22:20,718 --> 07:22:26,798
need to keep up. The fear of being left
8713
07:22:23,520 --> 07:22:30,240
behind. Infinite envy creates infinite
8714
07:22:26,798 --> 07:22:32,558
demand. Infinite demand creates infinite
8715
07:22:30,240 --> 07:22:35,040
value.
8716
07:22:32,558 --> 07:22:38,958
September 2004.
8717
07:22:35,040 --> 07:22:40,878
Peter Theal wires $500,000 to Facebook
8718
07:22:38,958 --> 07:22:45,120
incororated.
8719
07:22:40,878 --> 07:22:48,000
The deal terms 10.2% equity ownership in
8720
07:22:45,120 --> 07:22:49,760
the company. A board seat giving him
8721
07:22:48,000 --> 07:22:51,440
governance rights and inside
8722
07:22:49,760 --> 07:22:54,320
information.
8723
07:22:51,440 --> 07:22:57,680
Right of first refusal on all future
8724
07:22:54,320 --> 07:23:00,478
funding rounds. Post money valuation of
8725
07:22:57,680 --> 07:23:02,558
exactly $5 million.
8726
07:23:00,478 --> 07:23:05,840
Mark Zuckerberg's reaction after the
8727
07:23:02,558 --> 07:23:08,798
deal closed. This guy actually gets it.
8728
07:23:05,840 --> 07:23:11,840
He understands what we are building.
8729
07:23:08,798 --> 07:23:13,760
Silicon Valley's reaction. Peter Theal
8730
07:23:11,840 --> 07:23:16,878
just threw away half a million dollars
8731
07:23:13,760 --> 07:23:19,440
on a college kid's website. This will be
8732
07:23:16,878 --> 07:23:21,760
his biggest failure.
8733
07:23:19,440 --> 07:23:26,958
What happened next rewrote the history
8734
07:23:21,760 --> 07:23:31,600
of venture capital. 2004 end of year.
8735
07:23:26,958 --> 07:23:35,680
200,000 users grew to 1 million users.
8736
07:23:31,600 --> 07:23:39,200
Five times growth in 4 months. 2005
8737
07:23:35,680 --> 07:23:44,718
1 million users becomes 5.5 million
8738
07:23:39,200 --> 07:23:49,600
users. 2006 5.5 million users becomes 12
8739
07:23:44,718 --> 07:23:54,400
million users. 2007 12 million users
8740
07:23:49,600 --> 07:23:57,280
exploded to 50 million users. 2008 50
8741
07:23:54,400 --> 07:23:59,120
million users doubles to 100 million
8742
07:23:57,280 --> 07:24:00,638
users.
8743
07:23:59,120 --> 07:24:04,240
2009
8744
07:24:00,638 --> 07:24:07,600
100 million users becomes 350 million
8745
07:24:04,240 --> 07:24:10,718
users. growth rate. The user base was
8746
07:24:07,600 --> 07:24:13,120
doubling every 6 to9 months for five
8747
07:24:10,718 --> 07:24:15,680
consecutive years.
8748
07:24:13,120 --> 07:24:18,400
This growth curve had never been seen
8749
07:24:15,680 --> 07:24:21,920
before in business history. Not even
8750
07:24:18,400 --> 07:24:24,400
close. As Facebook grew, its valuation
8751
07:24:21,920 --> 07:24:26,718
grew and Peter Theel's stake grew with
8752
07:24:24,400 --> 07:24:28,878
it.
8753
07:24:26,718 --> 07:24:32,638
May 2005,
8754
07:24:28,878 --> 07:24:35,520
Axel Partners invests $12.7 million at
8755
07:24:32,638 --> 07:24:39,280
$100 million valuation.
8756
07:24:35,520 --> 07:24:42,798
Field's 10.2% stake is now worth $10.2
8757
07:24:39,280 --> 07:24:45,440
million. He has achieved 20 times return
8758
07:24:42,798 --> 07:24:48,958
in 9 months.
8759
07:24:45,440 --> 07:24:53,280
April 2006, Greylock Partners and
8760
07:24:48,958 --> 07:24:56,000
Meritech Capital invest $27.5 million at
8761
07:24:53,280 --> 07:24:59,440
$500 million valuation.
8762
07:24:56,000 --> 07:25:01,760
Theel stake is now worth $51 million,
8763
07:24:59,440 --> 07:25:03,440
100 times return on his original
8764
07:25:01,760 --> 07:25:05,920
investment.
8765
07:25:03,440 --> 07:25:10,478
October 2007,
8766
07:25:05,920 --> 07:25:14,160
Microsoft invests $240 million, valuing
8767
07:25:10,478 --> 07:25:18,558
Facebook at $15 billion.
8768
07:25:14,160 --> 07:25:23,120
The stake is now worth $1.5 billion, a
8769
07:25:18,558 --> 07:25:26,080
300,000 times return in 3 years.
8770
07:25:23,120 --> 07:25:28,478
2009 through 2011.
8771
07:25:26,080 --> 07:25:31,600
Multiple private sales and secondary
8772
07:25:28,478 --> 07:25:33,440
transactions value Facebook at $50
8773
07:25:31,600 --> 07:25:36,400
billion.
8774
07:25:33,440 --> 07:25:39,840
The stake, if he had held everything,
8775
07:25:36,400 --> 07:25:43,200
would be worth $5 billion.
8776
07:25:39,840 --> 07:25:45,600
May 18th, 2012,
8777
07:25:43,200 --> 07:25:50,478
Facebook goes public at a market
8778
07:25:45,600 --> 07:25:53,280
capitalization of $14 billion.
8779
07:25:50,478 --> 07:25:56,320
But the does not hold everything. He is
8780
07:25:53,280 --> 07:25:59,600
strategic. He is tactical. He takes
8781
07:25:56,320 --> 07:26:03,600
profits. At the initial public offering,
8782
07:25:59,600 --> 07:26:05,360
Theel sells $640 million worth of shares
8783
07:26:03,600 --> 07:26:07,680
immediately.
8784
07:26:05,360 --> 07:26:09,840
Over the following 6 months, he sells
8785
07:26:07,680 --> 07:26:12,160
the remainder of his stake in carefully
8786
07:26:09,840 --> 07:26:14,400
timed transactions.
8787
07:26:12,160 --> 07:26:19,120
Total cash realized from the Facebook
8788
07:26:14,400 --> 07:26:22,400
investment approximately $1 billion.
8789
07:26:19,120 --> 07:26:24,400
Initial investment in August 2004,
8790
07:26:22,400 --> 07:26:28,478
$500,000.
8791
07:26:24,400 --> 07:26:30,240
Total cash realized by end of 2012, $1
8792
07:26:28,478 --> 07:26:35,040
billion.
8793
07:26:30,240 --> 07:26:36,878
Total return, 2,000 times in 8 years.
8794
07:26:35,040 --> 07:26:39,840
This is the single greatest venture
8795
07:26:36,878 --> 07:26:42,958
capital return in recorded history.
8796
07:26:39,840 --> 07:26:46,160
Nothing else comes close. But here is
8797
07:26:42,958 --> 07:26:49,040
the twist. The haunting decision that
8798
07:26:46,160 --> 07:26:52,638
Theel himself admits keeps him awake at
8799
07:26:49,040 --> 07:26:55,360
night. Selling was a mistake.
8800
07:26:52,638 --> 07:26:58,718
If Peter Theal had held his original
8801
07:26:55,360 --> 07:27:01,360
10.2% stake and had never sold a single
8802
07:26:58,718 --> 07:27:05,040
share, that stake at Facebook's peak
8803
07:27:01,360 --> 07:27:08,798
market capitalization in 2021 would have
8804
07:27:05,040 --> 07:27:12,000
been worth $12 billion.
8805
07:27:08,798 --> 07:27:15,040
$12 billion.
8806
07:27:12,000 --> 07:27:17,200
He left $100 billion on the table by
8807
07:27:15,040 --> 07:27:19,440
selling early.
8808
07:27:17,200 --> 07:27:21,760
The himself admitted this publicly
8809
07:27:19,440 --> 07:27:24,638
saying, "The mistake was not investing
8810
07:27:21,760 --> 07:27:26,240
in Facebook. The mistake was selling
8811
07:27:24,638 --> 07:27:28,958
Facebook.
8812
07:27:26,240 --> 07:27:31,520
I should have held longer. I should have
8813
07:27:28,958 --> 07:27:35,840
believed more. It is the single most
8814
07:27:31,520 --> 07:27:38,638
expensive decision of his life."
8815
07:27:35,840 --> 07:27:41,680
Years later, in a Stanford lecture, Theo
8816
07:27:38,638 --> 07:27:45,200
explained his actual investment thesis.
8817
07:27:41,680 --> 07:27:47,120
The real reason he invested, I did not
8818
07:27:45,200 --> 07:27:49,920
invest in Facebook because I thought
8819
07:27:47,120 --> 07:27:51,680
social networks were going to be big. I
8820
07:27:49,920 --> 07:27:54,080
invested because I understood that
8821
07:27:51,680 --> 07:27:57,840
humans will always want to be more like
8822
07:27:54,080 --> 07:28:01,680
their peers. That desire is infinite. It
8823
07:27:57,840 --> 07:28:04,160
never stops. It only intensifies.
8824
07:28:01,680 --> 07:28:07,760
An infinite desire creates infinite
8825
07:28:04,160 --> 07:28:09,280
value. The mimemetic theory made him a
8826
07:28:07,760 --> 07:28:11,520
billionaire.
8827
07:28:09,280 --> 07:28:15,120
The momemetic theory also made him
8828
07:28:11,520 --> 07:28:18,478
terrified of what he had helped create.
8829
07:28:15,120 --> 07:28:20,958
A machine that weaponizes human envy, a
8830
07:28:18,478 --> 07:28:22,878
system that profits from making people
8831
07:28:20,958 --> 07:28:25,520
feel inadequate.
8832
07:28:22,878 --> 07:28:29,120
An algorithm that amplifies the worst
8833
07:28:25,520 --> 07:28:31,360
aspects of human nature. Peter Theal
8834
07:28:29,120 --> 07:28:34,958
helped build the most powerful behavior
8835
07:28:31,360 --> 07:28:37,600
modification system in human history.
8836
07:28:34,958 --> 07:28:40,240
And then he cashed out for a billion
8837
07:28:37,600 --> 07:28:40,240
dollars.
8838
07:28:46,958 --> 07:28:54,798
2003 Peter Theel has a problem. It is
8839
07:28:51,600 --> 07:28:57,920
the CIA's problem, but they think Fel
8840
07:28:54,798 --> 07:29:00,718
can solve it. His PayPal anti-fraud
8841
07:28:57,920 --> 07:29:03,040
algorithms have become so sophisticated
8842
07:29:00,718 --> 07:29:05,360
at detecting patterns in financial
8843
07:29:03,040 --> 07:29:07,600
transactions at finding terrorists
8844
07:29:05,360 --> 07:29:11,360
trying to move money through banking
8845
07:29:07,600 --> 07:29:14,798
systems that the CIA venture capital arm
8846
07:29:11,360 --> 07:29:17,760
in QEL requested a meeting.
8847
07:29:14,798 --> 07:29:20,398
The pitch from the CIA, can you build
8848
07:29:17,760 --> 07:29:22,798
what you built for PayPal but for
8849
07:29:20,398 --> 07:29:26,558
national security? Can you find
8850
07:29:22,798 --> 07:29:28,478
terrorists the way you found fraudsters?
8851
07:29:26,558 --> 07:29:30,878
May 2003,
8852
07:29:28,478 --> 07:29:33,280
Peter Theal co-founds Palunteer
8853
07:29:30,878 --> 07:29:34,878
Technologies with an unusual group of
8854
07:29:33,280 --> 07:29:37,840
co-founders.
8855
07:29:34,878 --> 07:29:41,280
The founding team, Alex Karp, chief
8856
07:29:37,840 --> 07:29:43,680
executive officer, Stanford Law Degree,
8857
07:29:41,280 --> 07:29:46,320
philosophy, PhD from Frankfurt
8858
07:29:43,680 --> 07:29:48,958
University in Germany, former human
8859
07:29:46,320 --> 07:29:50,478
rights lawyer who once worked on refugee
8860
07:29:48,958 --> 07:29:53,040
cases.
8861
07:29:50,478 --> 07:29:55,040
an extremely odd choice to run a company
8862
07:29:53,040 --> 07:29:57,200
that will become the most powerful
8863
07:29:55,040 --> 07:29:58,718
surveillance technology provider on
8864
07:29:57,200 --> 07:30:01,280
Earth.
8865
07:29:58,718 --> 07:30:04,398
Nathan Gettings, chief technology
8866
07:30:01,280 --> 07:30:07,360
officer. PayPal's lead security
8867
07:30:04,398 --> 07:30:10,320
engineer. Brilliant programmer. Joe
8868
07:30:07,360 --> 07:30:13,280
Lndale, a Stamford undergraduate
8869
07:30:10,320 --> 07:30:16,878
student, barely 20 years old, one of the
8870
07:30:13,280 --> 07:30:20,000
first Theel fellows. Steven Cohen,
8871
07:30:16,878 --> 07:30:21,840
PayPal's chief security architect. The
8872
07:30:20,000 --> 07:30:25,040
person who actually built the fraud
8873
07:30:21,840 --> 07:30:26,558
detection algorithms. Initial funding $2
8874
07:30:25,040 --> 07:30:28,718
million
8875
07:30:26,558 --> 07:30:32,320
entirely from Peter Theel's personal
8876
07:30:28,718 --> 07:30:34,478
capital. No outside investors yet. This
8877
07:30:32,320 --> 07:30:37,120
is his project.
8878
07:30:34,478 --> 07:30:39,680
The mission statement. Build software
8879
07:30:37,120 --> 07:30:42,240
that can find patterns in massive data
8880
07:30:39,680 --> 07:30:44,240
sets from disperate incompatible
8881
07:30:42,240 --> 07:30:47,280
sources.
8882
07:30:44,240 --> 07:30:49,600
The kind of data that if intelligency
8883
07:30:47,280 --> 07:30:52,558
agencies had been able to analyze it
8884
07:30:49,600 --> 07:30:55,520
properly could have prevented September
8885
07:30:52,558 --> 07:30:59,120
11th, 2001.
8886
07:30:55,520 --> 07:31:01,520
The company name Palunteer named after
8887
07:30:59,120 --> 07:31:03,520
the seeing stones in Lord of the Rings,
8888
07:31:01,520 --> 07:31:05,680
the magical orbs that allow their
8889
07:31:03,520 --> 07:31:08,638
possessors to see anything happening
8890
07:31:05,680 --> 07:31:12,080
anywhere in Middle Earth. Even the name
8891
07:31:08,638 --> 07:31:13,600
revealed the ambition total information
8892
07:31:12,080 --> 07:31:18,440
awareness.
8893
07:31:13,600 --> 07:31:18,440
the ability to see everything.
8894
07:31:18,638 --> 07:31:23,760
2005,
8895
07:31:20,160 --> 07:31:26,638
the CIA's venture capital arm in CQEL
8896
07:31:23,760 --> 07:31:29,520
invest $2 million in Palanteer's series
8897
07:31:26,638 --> 07:31:32,240
A funding round. This was not just
8898
07:31:29,520 --> 07:31:35,040
money. This was validation from the
8899
07:31:32,240 --> 07:31:37,440
intelligence community. A stamp of
8900
07:31:35,040 --> 07:31:39,920
approval from the most secretive, most
8901
07:31:37,440 --> 07:31:41,520
paranoid organization in the US
8902
07:31:39,920 --> 07:31:45,360
government.
8903
07:31:41,520 --> 07:31:47,440
Initial contract value undisclosed.
8904
07:31:45,360 --> 07:31:50,798
Government intelligence contracts are
8905
07:31:47,440 --> 07:31:53,520
classified by law, but industry analysts
8906
07:31:50,798 --> 07:31:56,958
estimate the first CIA contracts were
8907
07:31:53,520 --> 07:32:00,160
worth 5 to 10 million annually.
8908
07:31:56,958 --> 07:32:03,360
The product was called Palunteer Gotham.
8909
07:32:00,160 --> 07:32:06,478
The name itself was significant. Gotham,
8910
07:32:03,360 --> 07:32:08,718
the dark city that needs Batman. The
8911
07:32:06,478 --> 07:32:12,320
city that needs surveillance to fight
8912
07:32:08,718 --> 07:32:14,320
crime. core technical capabilities.
8913
07:32:12,320 --> 07:32:17,040
Integrate data from dozens of
8914
07:32:14,320 --> 07:32:19,040
incompatible government databases that
8915
07:32:17,040 --> 07:32:21,760
were never designed to communicate with
8916
07:32:19,040 --> 07:32:24,398
each other. From hidden connections
8917
07:32:21,760 --> 07:32:28,320
between people, places, financial
8918
07:32:24,398 --> 07:32:30,958
transactions, communications metadata,
8919
07:32:28,320 --> 07:32:33,280
visualize networks of relationships in
8920
07:32:30,958 --> 07:32:35,200
ways human analysts could understand
8921
07:32:33,280 --> 07:32:37,520
intuitively.
8922
07:32:35,200 --> 07:32:39,760
Predict future behavior and likely
8923
07:32:37,520 --> 07:32:42,718
attack patterns based on historical
8924
07:32:39,760 --> 07:32:45,600
data. Specific use cases for
8925
07:32:42,718 --> 07:32:48,558
intelligence agencies. Track terrorist
8926
07:32:45,600 --> 07:32:50,558
cells across multiple countries. Map
8927
07:32:48,558 --> 07:32:52,718
drug trafficking routes from production
8928
07:32:50,558 --> 07:32:54,878
to distribution.
8929
07:32:52,718 --> 07:32:57,920
Identify money laundering networks
8930
07:32:54,878 --> 07:33:00,320
moving funds for organized crime.
8931
07:32:57,920 --> 07:33:02,558
Predict insurgent attacks in Iraq and
8932
07:33:00,320 --> 07:33:06,240
Afghanistan based on pattern
8933
07:33:02,558 --> 07:33:10,000
recognition. It worked. The software
8934
07:33:06,240 --> 07:33:13,120
actually worked. By 2006, Palanteer
8935
07:33:10,000 --> 07:33:16,080
software was being actively used in Iraq
8936
07:33:13,120 --> 07:33:19,680
for counterinsurgency operations and in
8937
07:33:16,080 --> 07:33:21,920
IED attack prediction.
8938
07:33:19,680 --> 07:33:24,878
Afghanistan for predicting Taliban
8939
07:33:21,920 --> 07:33:28,478
leadership networks. Langley, Virginia
8940
07:33:24,878 --> 07:33:31,200
at CIA headquarters for threat analysis.
8941
07:33:28,478 --> 07:33:35,398
FBI field officers nationwide for
8942
07:33:31,200 --> 07:33:35,398
domestic terrorism investigation.
8943
07:33:35,440 --> 07:33:41,600
Early revenue growth told the story of
8944
07:33:37,600 --> 07:33:44,398
Palunteers expanding reach. 2005
8945
07:33:41,600 --> 07:33:50,718
$3 million in revenue. Government
8946
07:33:44,398 --> 07:33:56,160
contracts only. 2006 $10 million. 2007
8947
07:33:50,718 --> 07:34:00,798
$25 million. 2008 $50 million. First
8948
07:33:56,160 --> 07:34:07,280
commercial clients added 2010 $150
8949
07:34:00,798 --> 07:34:09,040
million. 2012 $400 million. By 2012,
8950
07:34:07,280 --> 07:34:11,200
Palanteer had achieved something
8951
07:34:09,040 --> 07:34:14,878
extremely rare for a high- growth
8952
07:34:11,200 --> 07:34:17,120
technology company. Profitability.
8953
07:34:14,878 --> 07:34:20,080
They were actually making money, not
8954
07:34:17,120 --> 07:34:23,200
just burning venture capital. Customer
8955
07:34:20,080 --> 07:34:27,200
revenue breakdown in 2012.
8956
07:34:23,200 --> 07:34:29,760
Government contracts, 60% of revenue,
8957
07:34:27,200 --> 07:34:34,240
$240 million.
8958
07:34:29,760 --> 07:34:36,958
Commercial clients, 40% of revenue, $160
8959
07:34:34,240 --> 07:34:40,958
million.
8960
07:34:36,958 --> 07:34:43,280
May the 1st, 2011. Palanteer Software
8961
07:34:40,958 --> 07:34:46,558
plays a role in the operation that kills
8962
07:34:43,280 --> 07:34:48,798
Osama bin Laden. A role that remains
8963
07:34:46,558 --> 07:34:51,920
partially classified, but has been
8964
07:34:48,798 --> 07:34:54,718
confirmed by multiple sources.
8965
07:34:51,920 --> 07:34:57,040
How Palanteer contributed. Palanteer
8966
07:34:54,718 --> 07:34:59,440
Gotham integrated dozens of different
8967
07:34:57,040 --> 07:35:01,840
intelligence sources.
8968
07:34:59,440 --> 07:35:05,040
CIA human intelligence on career
8969
07:35:01,840 --> 07:35:07,600
networks. NSA signal intelligence
8970
07:35:05,040 --> 07:35:10,478
including phone metadata and email
8971
07:35:07,600 --> 07:35:13,680
communications patterns.
8972
07:35:10,478 --> 07:35:16,478
National Geospatial Intelligence Agency
8973
07:35:13,680 --> 07:35:18,000
satellite imagery of potential compound
8974
07:35:16,478 --> 07:35:20,478
locations.
8975
07:35:18,000 --> 07:35:22,478
historical pattern analysis of previous
8976
07:35:20,478 --> 07:35:25,280
highv value target operations in
8977
07:35:22,478 --> 07:35:27,360
Pakistan.
8978
07:35:25,280 --> 07:35:29,680
The system identified patterns and
8979
07:35:27,360 --> 07:35:32,160
connections that human analysts working
8980
07:35:29,680 --> 07:35:35,360
with separate databases that did not
8981
07:35:32,160 --> 07:35:37,600
communicate had missed. It narrowed the
8982
07:35:35,360 --> 07:35:42,080
search area and helped confirm the
8983
07:35:37,600 --> 07:35:44,160
identity of the Abotabad compound.
8984
07:35:42,080 --> 07:35:47,120
When asked about Palanteer's role in the
8985
07:35:44,160 --> 07:35:50,398
bin Laden operation, Theo gave carefully
8986
07:35:47,120 --> 07:35:53,120
worded response. I cannot comment on
8987
07:35:50,398 --> 07:35:56,160
specific operations or specific clients
8988
07:35:53,120 --> 07:35:59,840
due to classification requirements, but
8989
07:35:56,160 --> 07:36:02,080
I will say this. Tools that help protect
8990
07:35:59,840 --> 07:36:05,200
American lives and help intelligence
8991
07:36:02,080 --> 07:36:08,638
professionals do their jobs better. That
8992
07:36:05,200 --> 07:36:10,878
is our mission.
8993
07:36:08,638 --> 07:36:13,840
This single operation, this single
8994
07:36:10,878 --> 07:36:15,840
success legitimized Palanteer's entire
8995
07:36:13,840 --> 07:36:18,240
value proposition to the national
8996
07:36:15,840 --> 07:36:21,120
security establishment.
8997
07:36:18,240 --> 07:36:23,600
After bin Laden, the contracts poured
8998
07:36:21,120 --> 07:36:26,320
in.
8999
07:36:23,600 --> 07:36:29,280
After the bin Laden success, Palanteer's
9000
07:36:26,320 --> 07:36:33,840
government business exploded. Revenue
9001
07:36:29,280 --> 07:36:39,200
growth from 2012 to 2015.
9002
07:36:33,840 --> 07:36:42,638
2012, $400 million in revenue. 2013,
9003
07:36:39,200 --> 07:36:48,080
$600 million. 2014,
9004
07:36:42,638 --> 07:36:51,120
$900 million. 2015, $1.5 billion in
9005
07:36:48,080 --> 07:36:54,120
revenue. Major new contracts announced
9006
07:36:51,120 --> 07:36:54,120
publicly.
9007
07:36:55,520 --> 07:37:02,958
US Department of Defense, $222 million
9008
07:37:00,080 --> 07:37:04,718
for a 3-year data integration platform
9009
07:37:02,958 --> 07:37:08,718
contract.
9010
07:37:04,718 --> 07:37:11,840
US Army, $800 million for comprehensive
9011
07:37:08,718 --> 07:37:14,000
data platform modernization across all
9012
07:37:11,840 --> 07:37:18,160
army systems,
9013
07:37:14,000 --> 07:37:20,798
US Special Operations Command, $444
9014
07:37:18,160 --> 07:37:22,558
million for targeting and intelligence
9015
07:37:20,798 --> 07:37:26,080
fusion,
9016
07:37:22,558 --> 07:37:28,398
Department of Homeland Security, $240
9017
07:37:26,080 --> 07:37:31,520
million for border security and
9018
07:37:28,398 --> 07:37:33,920
immigration enforcement systems.
9019
07:37:31,520 --> 07:37:36,558
Palanteer had become the single most
9020
07:37:33,920 --> 07:37:38,398
important software company in the entire
9021
07:37:36,558 --> 07:37:40,000
US defense and intelligence
9022
07:37:38,398 --> 07:37:42,240
establishment,
9023
07:37:40,000 --> 07:37:45,440
more important than traditional defense
9024
07:37:42,240 --> 07:37:47,440
contractors, more embedded in classified
9025
07:37:45,440 --> 07:37:50,080
operations.
9026
07:37:47,440 --> 07:37:52,080
Simultaneously, Palunteer launched a
9027
07:37:50,080 --> 07:37:55,440
commercial product called Palunteer
9028
07:37:52,080 --> 07:37:58,478
Foundry for private sector clients. The
9029
07:37:55,440 --> 07:38:00,638
sales pitch to corporate America. Your
9030
07:37:58,478 --> 07:38:04,398
company has exactly the same problem as
9031
07:38:00,638 --> 07:38:06,958
the CIA. Too much data, too many
9032
07:38:04,398 --> 07:38:09,360
incompatible systems, not enough
9033
07:38:06,958 --> 07:38:12,000
insight. We can help you find the
9034
07:38:09,360 --> 07:38:14,160
patterns you are missing. Major
9035
07:38:12,000 --> 07:38:17,680
commercial clients and estimated
9036
07:38:14,160 --> 07:38:22,558
contract values.
9037
07:38:17,680 --> 07:38:24,320
JP Morgan Chase over $100 million fraud
9038
07:38:22,558 --> 07:38:27,680
detection and financial crime
9039
07:38:24,320 --> 07:38:30,558
prevention. Morgan Stanley over $50
9040
07:38:27,680 --> 07:38:35,360
million risk management and regulatory
9041
07:38:30,558 --> 07:38:37,520
compliance. Airbus over $75 million
9042
07:38:35,360 --> 07:38:40,240
supply chain optimization and
9043
07:38:37,520 --> 07:38:44,398
manufacturing analytics.
9044
07:38:40,240 --> 07:38:47,040
Merc Pharmaceuticals over $60 million
9045
07:38:44,398 --> 07:38:49,920
drug discovery analytics and clinical
9046
07:38:47,040 --> 07:38:54,478
trial data integration.
9047
07:38:49,920 --> 07:38:58,320
BP over $80 million oil field production
9048
07:38:54,478 --> 07:39:01,600
optimization and predictive maintenance.
9049
07:38:58,320 --> 07:39:03,440
Commercial revenue growth from 2015 to
9050
07:39:01,600 --> 07:39:06,718
2020.
9051
07:39:03,440 --> 07:39:10,398
In 2015, they got $600 million
9052
07:39:06,718 --> 07:39:14,878
commercial revenue. By 2016, the number
9053
07:39:10,398 --> 07:39:17,520
was around $800 billion. In 2017, they
9054
07:39:14,878 --> 07:39:20,958
reached $1.1 billion in commercial
9055
07:39:17,520 --> 07:39:24,878
revenue, and it became their peak year.
9056
07:39:20,958 --> 07:39:27,200
2018 made them hit the $750 million
9057
07:39:24,878 --> 07:39:30,680
mark, a temporary decline due to
9058
07:39:27,200 --> 07:39:30,680
customer churn.
9059
07:39:30,718 --> 07:39:36,478
In 2019, revenue was around $745
9060
07:39:34,878 --> 07:39:40,398
million,
9061
07:39:36,478 --> 07:39:44,398
and by 2020, they reached $1.1 billion.
9062
07:39:40,398 --> 07:39:47,520
Again, this recovery was driven by COVID
9063
07:39:44,398 --> 07:39:49,680
analytics contracts. Palanteer had
9064
07:39:47,520 --> 07:39:53,040
created a business model with two
9065
07:39:49,680 --> 07:39:54,878
enormous locked in customer bases, the
9066
07:39:53,040 --> 07:39:59,080
US government and the largest
9067
07:39:54,878 --> 07:39:59,080
corporations in the world.
9068
07:40:00,638 --> 07:40:05,760
But Palanteer's work, especially for
9069
07:40:02,958 --> 07:40:09,120
government agencies, attracted intense
9070
07:40:05,760 --> 07:40:12,160
controversy and moral criticism.
9071
07:40:09,120 --> 07:40:16,240
In 2019, they secured a contract with
9072
07:40:12,160 --> 07:40:18,798
ICE for $49 million. The purpose of the
9073
07:40:16,240 --> 07:40:21,200
contract was enforcement and removal
9074
07:40:18,798 --> 07:40:24,080
operations systems,
9075
07:40:21,200 --> 07:40:26,558
meaning a software used to identify,
9076
07:40:24,080 --> 07:40:29,280
track, and process undocumented
9077
07:40:26,558 --> 07:40:31,520
immigrants for deportation.
9078
07:40:29,280 --> 07:40:34,240
This project came with a controversy
9079
07:40:31,520 --> 07:40:36,320
attached. The software was used during
9080
07:40:34,240 --> 07:40:39,120
the family separation policy at the
9081
07:40:36,320 --> 07:40:42,478
southern border. Children separated from
9082
07:40:39,120 --> 07:40:44,638
their parents. Families torn apart.
9083
07:40:42,478 --> 07:40:47,360
Palanteer software helped make it
9084
07:40:44,638 --> 07:40:49,920
operationally possible. Hundreds of
9085
07:40:47,360 --> 07:40:52,320
Palunteer employees signed an internal
9086
07:40:49,920 --> 07:40:55,440
letter demanding the company cancel the
9087
07:40:52,320 --> 07:40:57,760
ICE contract.
9088
07:40:55,440 --> 07:41:00,798
They argued the company was enabling
9089
07:40:57,760 --> 07:41:04,558
human rights abuses. The and Karp's
9090
07:41:00,798 --> 07:41:06,558
response, absolute refusal. The contract
9091
07:41:04,558 --> 07:41:09,120
would continue.
9092
07:41:06,558 --> 07:41:11,440
Alex Kart gave a public statement saying
9093
07:41:09,120 --> 07:41:14,958
that they had chosen sides and that the
9094
07:41:11,440 --> 07:41:17,440
company supported American institutions.
9095
07:41:14,958 --> 07:41:19,760
But this was not the only controversy
9096
07:41:17,440 --> 07:41:23,120
Palanteer has faced.
9097
07:41:19,760 --> 07:41:26,320
Palanteer worked alongside the NYPD with
9098
07:41:23,120 --> 07:41:31,280
a contract estimated between 50 and $100
9099
07:41:26,320 --> 07:41:33,600
billion. The mission predictive policy.
9100
07:41:31,280 --> 07:41:36,160
They were asked to use historical crime
9101
07:41:33,600 --> 07:41:39,120
data to predict where future crimes will
9102
07:41:36,160 --> 07:41:41,840
occur and who is likely to commit them.
9103
07:41:39,120 --> 07:41:44,638
The controversy civil rights groups
9104
07:41:41,840 --> 07:41:47,520
argued that system perpetuated racial
9105
07:41:44,638 --> 07:41:50,478
bias. Minority neighborhoods were
9106
07:41:47,520 --> 07:41:52,718
flagged as high risk. Innocent people
9107
07:41:50,478 --> 07:41:56,000
were put under surveillance based on
9108
07:41:52,718 --> 07:41:59,600
algorithmic predictions.
9109
07:41:56,000 --> 07:42:02,080
Joe Lndale, Palanteer co-founder, had
9110
07:41:59,600 --> 07:42:03,680
made a personal investment in Cambridge
9111
07:42:02,080 --> 07:42:06,080
Analytica.
9112
07:42:03,680 --> 07:42:08,478
Multiple Palanteer employees on their
9113
07:42:06,080 --> 07:42:13,000
own time helped Cambridge Analytica
9114
07:42:08,478 --> 07:42:13,000
build data integration models.
9115
07:42:13,120 --> 07:42:18,160
Both companies use similar approaches to
9116
07:42:15,840 --> 07:42:19,680
data harvesting and psychological
9117
07:42:18,160 --> 07:42:21,520
profiling.
9118
07:42:19,680 --> 07:42:24,398
When the connection was exposed by
9119
07:42:21,520 --> 07:42:27,440
journalists, Palanteer claimed there was
9120
07:42:24,398 --> 07:42:30,718
no institutional relationship, just
9121
07:42:27,440 --> 07:42:33,040
coincidental personal connections.
9122
07:42:30,718 --> 07:42:37,120
But the damage to Palanteer's reputation
9123
07:42:33,040 --> 07:42:39,520
was done. The had built the panoptagon,
9124
07:42:37,120 --> 07:42:42,000
the allseeing eye of corporate and
9125
07:42:39,520 --> 07:42:45,440
government surveillance.
9126
07:42:42,000 --> 07:42:48,638
September the 30th, 2020.
9127
07:42:45,440 --> 07:42:50,558
After 17 years as a private company, one
9128
07:42:48,638 --> 07:42:53,280
of the longest periods of private
9129
07:42:50,558 --> 07:42:56,240
operation for any major tech company,
9130
07:42:53,280 --> 07:42:59,280
Palanteer finally goes public through a
9131
07:42:56,240 --> 07:43:02,160
direct listing.
9132
07:42:59,280 --> 07:43:05,040
They went public at $10 per share and
9133
07:43:02,160 --> 07:43:08,718
their market capitalization at market
9134
07:43:05,040 --> 07:43:12,000
open was $16 billion.
9135
07:43:08,718 --> 07:43:13,840
By the first day, shares were down 5%.
9136
07:43:12,000 --> 07:43:15,440
The stock was initially a
9137
07:43:13,840 --> 07:43:17,520
disappointment.
9138
07:43:15,440 --> 07:43:19,520
Investors were skeptical of the business
9139
07:43:17,520 --> 07:43:22,160
model, worried about customer
9140
07:43:19,520 --> 07:43:24,240
concentration, concerned about the
9141
07:43:22,160 --> 07:43:27,360
controversy.
9142
07:43:24,240 --> 07:43:30,398
But then COVID 19 created massive new
9143
07:43:27,360 --> 07:43:34,320
demand for Palanteer's capabilities.
9144
07:43:30,398 --> 07:43:36,718
2020 to 2021, Palanteer wins enormous
9145
07:43:34,320 --> 07:43:39,840
pandemic related government contracts
9146
07:43:36,718 --> 07:43:42,000
with governments across the world. The
9147
07:43:39,840 --> 07:43:45,280
pandemic proved that governments needed
9148
07:43:42,000 --> 07:43:48,320
Palanteer and the market responded.
9149
07:43:45,280 --> 07:43:54,240
By late 2021, Palanteer stock had
9150
07:43:48,320 --> 07:43:56,718
exploded, $29 per share at 190% gain
9151
07:43:54,240 --> 07:43:58,398
from the direct listing price. Market
9152
07:43:56,718 --> 07:44:01,958
capitalization
9153
07:43:58,398 --> 07:44:01,958
$60 billion.
9154
07:44:03,120 --> 07:44:10,080
Peter Theal stake approximately 7%
9155
07:44:06,718 --> 07:44:12,878
ownership worth $4.2 billion at the
9156
07:44:10,080 --> 07:44:15,280
peak. 2022
9157
07:44:12,878 --> 07:44:18,718
the tech crash hits Palanteer brutally
9158
07:44:15,280 --> 07:44:22,798
hard. Stock prices crash to $6 per
9159
07:44:18,718 --> 07:44:26,478
share, down 8% from the peak. Market cap
9160
07:44:22,798 --> 07:44:28,558
collapses to $13 billion.
9161
07:44:26,478 --> 07:44:34,398
The paper wealth from Palanteer
9162
07:44:28,558 --> 07:44:37,760
evaporates. Billions gone. 2023 to 2024,
9163
07:44:34,398 --> 07:44:40,160
the AI boom creates new opportunity.
9164
07:44:37,760 --> 07:44:41,600
Palanteer markets itself as the AI
9165
07:44:40,160 --> 07:44:43,200
platform for governments and
9166
07:44:41,600 --> 07:44:46,080
enterprises.
9167
07:44:43,200 --> 07:44:50,798
And they get major new contract wins.
9168
07:44:46,080 --> 07:44:52,878
The US Army invested $463 million for AI
9169
07:44:50,798 --> 07:44:55,840
powered battlefield analytics and
9170
07:44:52,878 --> 07:44:58,320
decision support systems.
9171
07:44:55,840 --> 07:45:03,040
Palanteer stock recovered
9172
07:44:58,320 --> 07:45:05,680
25 to 30 per share by 2024.
9173
07:45:03,040 --> 07:45:08,638
As of 2024, Peter Theel's current
9174
07:45:05,680 --> 07:45:11,120
Palanteer holdings are approximately 7%
9175
07:45:08,638 --> 07:45:15,200
of all shares with a current value
9176
07:45:11,120 --> 07:45:19,798
ranging from 3.8 to 4.5 billion
9177
07:45:15,200 --> 07:45:19,798
depending on daily stock price.
9178
07:45:21,360 --> 07:45:28,000
This makes Palunteer Field's single
9179
07:45:24,558 --> 07:45:31,280
largest source of personal wealth. In
9180
07:45:28,000 --> 07:45:33,360
2024, Palanteer's financial performance
9181
07:45:31,280 --> 07:45:36,160
was divided between government and
9182
07:45:33,360 --> 07:45:40,958
commercial revenue. The company's net
9183
07:45:36,160 --> 07:45:42,798
income was $2.5 billion annually. And as
9184
07:45:40,958 --> 07:45:44,718
big as the number is, this might
9185
07:45:42,798 --> 07:45:47,200
represent a future problem for the
9186
07:45:44,718 --> 07:45:49,360
company. If government budget cuts
9187
07:45:47,200 --> 07:45:50,878
happen, Palanteer is extremely
9188
07:45:49,360 --> 07:45:53,120
vulnerable.
9189
07:45:50,878 --> 07:45:56,240
Their entire business model depends on
9190
07:45:53,120 --> 07:45:58,398
continued government spending.
9191
07:45:56,240 --> 07:45:59,920
Here is Peter Theel's fundamental
9192
07:45:58,398 --> 07:46:01,920
contradiction.
9193
07:45:59,920 --> 07:46:03,840
The paradox at the heart of everything
9194
07:46:01,920 --> 07:46:06,080
he has built. He claims to be a
9195
07:46:03,840 --> 07:46:09,360
libertarian who values individual
9196
07:46:06,080 --> 07:46:11,040
freedom above all else. A man who
9197
07:46:09,360 --> 07:46:13,440
believes government power should be
9198
07:46:11,040 --> 07:46:16,638
minimal. A man who wrote that freedom
9199
07:46:13,440 --> 07:46:19,200
and democracy are incompatible.
9200
07:46:16,638 --> 07:46:21,840
Yet he built the most powerful private
9201
07:46:19,200 --> 07:46:24,638
surveillance technology company in human
9202
07:46:21,840 --> 07:46:26,398
history. A company that gives
9203
07:46:24,638 --> 07:46:29,840
governments and corporations
9204
07:46:26,398 --> 07:46:33,120
unprecedented ability to monitor, track,
9205
07:46:29,840 --> 07:46:35,520
predict, and control human behavior.
9206
07:46:33,120 --> 07:46:38,478
Palanteer's technical capabilities
9207
07:46:35,520 --> 07:46:40,878
include realtime tracking of individuals
9208
07:46:38,478 --> 07:46:43,878
across multiple data sources and
9209
07:46:40,878 --> 07:46:43,878
databases.
9210
07:46:44,478 --> 07:46:49,120
Predictive behavioral modeling that
9211
07:46:47,120 --> 07:46:52,398
forecasts what people will do before
9212
07:46:49,120 --> 07:46:54,798
they do it. Network analysis that maps
9213
07:46:52,398 --> 07:46:58,240
every person you have ever contacted
9214
07:46:54,798 --> 07:47:00,958
through any medium. Complete integration
9215
07:46:58,240 --> 07:47:04,478
of financial records. communication
9216
07:47:00,958 --> 07:47:07,760
metadata, location history, and social
9217
07:47:04,478 --> 07:47:09,760
relationship data into a single unified
9218
07:47:07,760 --> 07:47:12,638
profile.
9219
07:47:09,760 --> 07:47:14,558
The defense of this contradiction was
9220
07:47:12,638 --> 07:47:18,798
explaining that the alternative to
9221
07:47:14,558 --> 07:47:21,360
Palanteer is not no surveillance.
9222
07:47:18,798 --> 07:47:23,600
The alternative is worse surveillance
9223
07:47:21,360 --> 07:47:26,558
performed by incompetent government
9224
07:47:23,600 --> 07:47:30,680
bureaucrats using decades old technology
9225
07:47:26,558 --> 07:47:30,680
that does not work properly.
9226
07:47:32,240 --> 07:47:38,718
The critics's response was obvious. They
9227
07:47:35,120 --> 07:47:42,878
told Theo he had built the panopticon,
9228
07:47:38,718 --> 07:47:44,958
the architecture of total surveillance.
9229
07:47:42,878 --> 07:47:47,280
A system allowing governments around the
9230
07:47:44,958 --> 07:47:50,160
world to use their citizens information
9231
07:47:47,280 --> 07:47:52,638
to control them, not a system to protect
9232
07:47:50,160 --> 07:47:55,040
them, said the critics.
9233
07:47:52,638 --> 07:47:57,840
Palanteer now operates in dozens of
9234
07:47:55,040 --> 07:48:00,718
countries worldwide. the United States,
9235
07:47:57,840 --> 07:48:03,600
the United Kingdom, Germany, France,
9236
07:48:00,718 --> 07:48:05,760
Australia, and even Japan.
9237
07:48:03,600 --> 07:48:08,798
The company has some controversial
9238
07:48:05,760 --> 07:48:11,760
international clients, some confirmed,
9239
07:48:08,798 --> 07:48:15,280
some alleged, but the total estimated
9240
07:48:11,760 --> 07:48:19,760
value of all global contracts lifetime,
9241
07:48:15,280 --> 07:48:22,558
over $10 billion in contract value.
9242
07:48:19,760 --> 07:48:25,680
Palanteer is Peter Theel's most
9243
07:48:22,558 --> 07:48:28,798
important company. Not because of its
9244
07:48:25,680 --> 07:48:31,200
valuation, though that is substantial.
9245
07:48:28,798 --> 07:48:34,878
Not because of its revenue, though that
9246
07:48:31,200 --> 07:48:37,200
is significant. Palanteer is important
9247
07:48:34,878 --> 07:48:40,160
because it reveals the truth about
9248
07:48:37,200 --> 07:48:42,798
Theo's worldview. It is the bridge
9249
07:48:40,160 --> 07:48:46,478
between his libertarian philosophy and
9250
07:48:42,798 --> 07:48:49,440
his authoritarian reality. He claims to
9251
07:48:46,478 --> 07:48:52,160
want freedom from government control.
9252
07:48:49,440 --> 07:48:54,320
But Palanteer gives governments
9253
07:48:52,160 --> 07:48:56,958
unprecedented control over their
9254
07:48:54,320 --> 07:49:00,000
citizens. The resolution of this
9255
07:48:56,958 --> 07:49:03,360
apparent contradiction, Peter Theel
9256
07:49:00,000 --> 07:49:07,440
believes in freedom for the elite and
9257
07:49:03,360 --> 07:49:09,680
surveillance for everyone else.
9258
07:49:07,440 --> 07:49:12,958
In his vision of the world, there are
9259
07:49:09,680 --> 07:49:15,120
rulers and there are the ruled. There
9260
07:49:12,958 --> 07:49:17,840
are the people who make the decisions
9261
07:49:15,120 --> 07:49:20,398
and the people who are managed.
9262
07:49:17,840 --> 07:49:23,760
Palanteer is the enforcement mechanism
9263
07:49:20,398 --> 07:49:27,040
for that hierarchy. The technology that
9264
07:49:23,760 --> 07:49:29,280
ensures the rulers can see everything.
9265
07:49:27,040 --> 07:49:32,320
The system that makes resistance
9266
07:49:29,280 --> 07:49:35,440
impossible because privacy no longer
9267
07:49:32,320 --> 07:49:38,718
exists. And Peter Theal sits at the
9268
07:49:35,440 --> 07:49:41,840
center of that eye, watching the world,
9269
07:49:38,718 --> 07:49:45,558
seeing everything. the architect of the
9270
07:49:41,840 --> 07:49:45,558
surveillance state.
9271
07:49:48,000 --> 07:49:53,760
In 2016, Peter Theal made an investment
9272
07:49:51,760 --> 07:49:57,120
that every other major technology
9273
07:49:53,760 --> 07:49:59,440
investor avoided.
9274
07:49:57,120 --> 07:50:01,680
While his peers in Silicon Valley were
9275
07:49:59,440 --> 07:50:05,440
contributing millions to the opposing
9276
07:50:01,680 --> 07:50:08,160
campaign, Theel wrote a check for $1.25
9277
07:50:05,440 --> 07:50:12,320
million to Donald Trump's presidential
9278
07:50:08,160 --> 07:50:16,080
campaign. This was not ideology. This
9279
07:50:12,320 --> 07:50:19,200
was portfolio diversification.
9280
07:50:16,080 --> 07:50:23,840
Feel has always invested in contrarian
9281
07:50:19,200 --> 07:50:26,558
positions. When everyone zigs, he zags.
9282
07:50:23,840 --> 07:50:29,520
When consensus forms in one direction,
9283
07:50:26,558 --> 07:50:33,440
he looks for asymmetric opportunities in
9284
07:50:29,520 --> 07:50:36,000
the other. The 2006 donation gave him
9285
07:50:33,440 --> 07:50:39,200
something money usually cannot buy in
9286
07:50:36,000 --> 07:50:42,638
Silicon Valley. direct access to
9287
07:50:39,200 --> 07:50:46,160
executive power, the return on that
9288
07:50:42,638 --> 07:50:48,798
$1.25 $25 million investment,
9289
07:50:46,160 --> 07:50:52,240
a seat on the presidential transition
9290
07:50:48,798 --> 07:50:55,440
team, input on federal technology
9291
07:50:52,240 --> 07:50:58,240
policy, direct communication channels to
9292
07:50:55,440 --> 07:51:01,760
the White House, credibility as a
9293
07:50:58,240 --> 07:51:04,398
Washington power broker,
9294
07:51:01,760 --> 07:51:06,160
and most measurably, Palanteer's
9295
07:51:04,398 --> 07:51:09,600
government contracts increased
9296
07:51:06,160 --> 07:51:11,920
substantially during this period.
9297
07:51:09,600 --> 07:51:15,200
But the's most significant political
9298
07:51:11,920 --> 07:51:16,718
investments came in the 2022 midterm
9299
07:51:15,200 --> 07:51:20,478
elections.
9300
07:51:16,718 --> 07:51:24,000
Two candidates, both former employees,
9301
07:51:20,478 --> 07:51:25,920
both running for United States Senate.
9302
07:51:24,000 --> 07:51:28,798
The financial commitment was
9303
07:51:25,920 --> 07:51:31,200
unprecedented in scale.
9304
07:51:28,798 --> 07:51:33,360
Vance had worked at Theel's venture
9305
07:51:31,200 --> 07:51:36,398
capital firm before writing his
9306
07:51:33,360 --> 07:51:38,478
best-selling memoir. Field's total
9307
07:51:36,398 --> 07:51:41,600
financial commitment.
9308
07:51:38,478 --> 07:51:43,360
Direct campaign contribution $15
9309
07:51:41,600 --> 07:51:47,360
million.
9310
07:51:43,360 --> 07:51:51,120
Super PAC expenditures $5 million.
9311
07:51:47,360 --> 07:51:54,320
Combined investment $20 million.
9312
07:51:51,120 --> 07:51:56,798
This set a record as the largest single
9313
07:51:54,320 --> 07:52:00,240
donor contribution to an individual
9314
07:51:56,798 --> 07:52:03,360
Senate campaign in American history. The
9315
07:52:00,240 --> 07:52:07,040
outcome, Vance won by six percentage
9316
07:52:03,360 --> 07:52:09,840
points. Masters had worked directly for
9317
07:52:07,040 --> 07:52:11,840
Theel as chief operating officer at
9318
07:52:09,840 --> 07:52:13,840
Theel Capital.
9319
07:52:11,840 --> 07:52:16,160
Theel's financial commitment to his
9320
07:52:13,840 --> 07:52:20,000
campaign was a combined investment of
9321
07:52:16,160 --> 07:52:23,120
$20 million, but unlike Vance, Masters
9322
07:52:20,000 --> 07:52:26,398
lost by 5 percentage points.
9323
07:52:23,120 --> 07:52:29,280
Theel's total 2022 midterm investment
9324
07:52:26,398 --> 07:52:32,160
was over $40 million in two Senate
9325
07:52:29,280 --> 07:52:34,160
races. Two different candidates that
9326
07:52:32,160 --> 07:52:36,240
would have allowed him to be in direct
9327
07:52:34,160 --> 07:52:39,600
touch with power at different chambers
9328
07:52:36,240 --> 07:52:41,600
and stages. For context, the average
9329
07:52:39,600 --> 07:52:45,200
competitive Senate race costs
9330
07:52:41,600 --> 07:52:47,840
approximately $10 million total. Peter
9331
07:52:45,200 --> 07:52:51,160
Theal invested four times that amount on
9332
07:52:47,840 --> 07:52:51,160
two races.
9333
07:52:51,840 --> 07:52:58,558
It's July 2024. JD Vance is selected as
9334
07:52:56,398 --> 07:53:01,440
the Republican vice presidential
9335
07:52:58,558 --> 07:53:04,080
candidate. From a pure investment
9336
07:53:01,440 --> 07:53:06,478
analysis perspective, this transforms
9337
07:53:04,080 --> 07:53:09,200
the return profile and Theo's $20
9338
07:53:06,478 --> 07:53:11,600
million commitment. He has considered
9339
07:53:09,200 --> 07:53:15,760
the potential financial implications if
9340
07:53:11,600 --> 07:53:18,320
this ticket wins and he gets access to
9341
07:53:15,760 --> 07:53:21,680
executive branch decisionmaking for 8
9342
07:53:18,320 --> 07:53:25,120
years. influence over federal contract
9343
07:53:21,680 --> 07:53:28,080
allocation across multiple agencies.
9344
07:53:25,120 --> 07:53:32,320
Input on technology regulation affecting
9345
07:53:28,080 --> 07:53:34,638
the portfolio companies.
9346
07:53:32,320 --> 07:53:36,718
If we consider what's the estimated
9347
07:53:34,638 --> 07:53:40,080
return on investment for Palanteer's
9348
07:53:36,718 --> 07:53:42,320
government business, what we see is
9349
07:53:40,080 --> 07:53:45,120
current annual government revenue of
9350
07:53:42,320 --> 07:53:47,840
$1.5 billion.
9351
07:53:45,120 --> 07:53:51,120
potential additional contract value over
9352
07:53:47,840 --> 07:53:54,120
eight years conservatively 5 to10
9353
07:53:51,120 --> 07:53:54,120
billion
9354
07:53:54,160 --> 07:54:00,798
and other defense companies in the
9355
07:53:57,200 --> 07:54:02,478
network potential 3 to5 billion in
9356
07:54:00,798 --> 07:54:04,958
contracts
9357
07:54:02,478 --> 07:54:08,478
regulatory treatment of cryptocurrency
9358
07:54:04,958 --> 07:54:11,478
holdings value potentially in tens of
9359
07:54:08,478 --> 07:54:11,478
billions.
9360
07:54:13,200 --> 07:54:19,280
The theoretical return of those 20
9361
07:54:15,760 --> 07:54:22,638
million invested is potentially 15 to 20
9362
07:54:19,280 --> 07:54:26,638
billion captured across the portfolio.
9363
07:54:22,638 --> 07:54:30,320
That represents a potential of 750 to
9364
07:54:26,638 --> 07:54:32,638
1,000 times return. By comparison,
9365
07:54:30,320 --> 07:54:34,958
Theel's Facebook investment returned
9366
07:54:32,638 --> 07:54:37,440
2,000 times.
9367
07:54:34,958 --> 07:54:42,798
To sum it up, the complete political
9368
07:54:37,440 --> 07:54:45,120
spending of the from 2016 to 2022 is 70
9369
07:54:42,798 --> 07:54:48,080
to $80 million.
9370
07:54:45,120 --> 07:54:51,360
For context, Amazon spends 20 million
9371
07:54:48,080 --> 07:54:54,080
annually on lobbying. Meta spends 20
9372
07:54:51,360 --> 07:54:57,840
million annual on lobbying. Google
9373
07:54:54,080 --> 07:55:00,478
spends 12 million annually on lobbying.
9374
07:54:57,840 --> 07:55:03,440
Field's approach is different. Rather
9375
07:55:00,478 --> 07:55:05,600
than ongoing lobbying expenditures, he
9376
07:55:03,440 --> 07:55:08,080
makes concentrated investments in
9377
07:55:05,600 --> 07:55:13,638
individual candidates who potentially
9378
07:55:08,080 --> 07:55:13,638
provide access for years or decades.
9379
07:55:13,680 --> 07:55:18,718
It is the venture capital model applied
9380
07:55:16,160 --> 07:55:21,680
to politics. Make early stage
9381
07:55:18,718 --> 07:55:24,160
investments in promising candidates.
9382
07:55:21,680 --> 07:55:27,440
Provide sufficient capital to help them
9383
07:55:24,160 --> 07:55:30,000
win. Capture value through long-term
9384
07:55:27,440 --> 07:55:32,638
relationships and access.
9385
07:55:30,000 --> 07:55:35,440
The candidates Theel has supported now
9386
07:55:32,638 --> 07:55:37,920
serve on key committees.
9387
07:55:35,440 --> 07:55:39,520
Technology regulation, defense
9388
07:55:37,920 --> 07:55:42,398
appropriations,
9389
07:55:39,520 --> 07:55:45,200
intelligence oversight, banking and
9390
07:55:42,398 --> 07:55:47,440
financial services.
9391
07:55:45,200 --> 07:55:49,920
Precisely the committees that oversee
9392
07:55:47,440 --> 07:55:52,320
industries where the has billions
9393
07:55:49,920 --> 07:55:55,120
invested and where he can use some
9394
07:55:52,320 --> 07:55:57,760
privileged information.
9395
07:55:55,120 --> 07:56:02,478
Is political investment a good use of
9396
07:55:57,760 --> 07:56:05,680
capital? The mathematics suggest yes
9397
07:56:02,478 --> 07:56:09,200
70 to 80 million represents less than 1%
9398
07:56:05,680 --> 07:56:11,440
of the's net worth. The potential return
9399
07:56:09,200 --> 07:56:14,240
if facets translate to favorable
9400
07:56:11,440 --> 07:56:17,840
treatment for portfolio companies could
9401
07:56:14,240 --> 07:56:20,240
be worth billions. Even with a 50%
9402
07:56:17,840 --> 07:56:23,120
success rate, the expected value is
9403
07:56:20,240 --> 07:56:26,240
positive by orders of magnitude.
9404
07:56:23,120 --> 07:56:30,240
Investment 70 to 80 million over 8
9405
07:56:26,240 --> 07:56:33,520
years. Potential value captured 15 to 30
9406
07:56:30,240 --> 07:56:40,000
billion across portfolio. Expected
9407
07:56:33,520 --> 07:56:42,558
return 200 to 400 times invested capital
9408
07:56:40,000 --> 07:56:45,760
that rivals the best venture capital
9409
07:56:42,558 --> 07:56:49,040
returns in history. Peter Theel is not
9410
07:56:45,760 --> 07:56:52,040
playing politics. He is optimizing his
9411
07:56:49,040 --> 07:56:52,040
portfolio.
9412
07:56:53,360 --> 07:56:59,280
Chapter 7. The final exit.
9413
07:56:57,200 --> 07:57:02,080
Peter Theal has spent his life betting
9414
07:56:59,280 --> 07:57:04,638
on the future, building it, funding it,
9415
07:57:02,080 --> 07:57:08,558
accelerating it. But there is one
9416
07:57:04,638 --> 07:57:13,360
frontier he refuses to accept as fixed.
9417
07:57:08,558 --> 07:57:15,920
Death. To him, mortality is not destiny.
9418
07:57:13,360 --> 07:57:18,240
It is an engineering problem waiting for
9419
07:57:15,920 --> 07:57:20,398
a breakthrough. Unlike every other
9420
07:57:18,240 --> 07:57:23,600
system he has challenged, he believes
9421
07:57:20,398 --> 07:57:26,240
this one too can be redesigned.
9422
07:57:23,600 --> 07:57:29,360
While others plan for retirement, Theel
9423
07:57:26,240 --> 07:57:31,920
funds longevity labs. While governments
9424
07:57:29,360 --> 07:57:33,440
plan for decades, he thinks in
9425
07:57:31,920 --> 07:57:35,680
centuries.
9426
07:57:33,440 --> 07:57:38,240
If time is the ultimate constraint on
9427
07:57:35,680 --> 07:57:41,040
power, then extending life is the
9428
07:57:38,240 --> 07:57:44,240
ultimate leverage. At the edge of the
9429
07:57:41,040 --> 07:57:46,958
world, he built a refuge. Far from
9430
07:57:44,240 --> 07:57:51,520
political centers, far from social
9431
07:57:46,958 --> 07:57:53,840
unrest, close only to time. In Silicon
9432
07:57:51,520 --> 07:57:57,440
Valley, there is a dark joke shared
9433
07:57:53,840 --> 07:57:59,600
quietly among founders and investors.
9434
07:57:57,440 --> 07:58:02,080
How many billionaires does it take to
9435
07:57:59,600 --> 07:58:05,120
buy a country?
9436
07:58:02,080 --> 07:58:08,520
Just one, if he is smart enough to get
9437
07:58:05,120 --> 07:58:08,520
there first.
9438
07:58:08,878 --> 07:58:13,520
He invested in digital currencies that
9439
07:58:11,200 --> 07:58:15,600
governments cannot print. In
9440
07:58:13,520 --> 07:58:18,478
surveillance systems that see what
9441
07:58:15,600 --> 07:58:20,958
others cannot. In political candidates
9442
07:58:18,478 --> 07:58:23,600
who might shape the rules. In
9443
07:58:20,958 --> 07:58:27,280
technologies that might outlive biology
9444
07:58:23,600 --> 07:58:30,920
itself. Not to save the world, to
9445
07:58:27,280 --> 07:58:30,920
outlast it.
9446
07:58:32,878 --> 07:58:38,398
What began as a contingency plan for a
9447
07:58:35,520 --> 07:58:41,200
few has become an unspoken strategy
9448
07:58:38,398 --> 07:58:43,600
among the ultra wealthy.
9449
07:58:41,200 --> 07:58:46,160
When the New Zealand citizenship story
9450
07:58:43,600 --> 07:58:49,760
became public, one of Theo's closest
9451
07:58:46,160 --> 07:58:52,558
peers, Samman, put it bluntly.
9452
07:58:49,760 --> 07:58:55,520
If things go really wrong, I'm flying to
9453
07:58:52,558 --> 07:58:58,718
Peter's place.
9454
07:58:55,520 --> 07:59:01,920
Some men try to make history. Peter
9455
07:58:58,718 --> 07:59:04,718
Theel is trying to escape it.
9456
07:59:01,920 --> 07:59:10,040
And if the future breaks, he intends to
9457
07:59:04,718 --> 07:59:10,040
be standing somewhere it cannot reach.
9458
08:00:35,760 --> 08:00:40,798
Most people see this and think culture.
9459
08:00:38,798 --> 08:00:43,280
They see a charming eco-friendly
9460
08:00:40,798 --> 08:00:46,080
tradition.
9461
08:00:43,280 --> 08:00:48,478
But look closer. This isn't just people
9462
08:00:46,080 --> 08:00:51,040
liking to pedal. What you were watching
9463
08:00:48,478 --> 08:00:52,798
is a highfrequency, low friction
9464
08:00:51,040 --> 08:00:54,718
economic machine.
9465
08:00:52,798 --> 08:00:56,718
>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
9466
08:00:54,718 --> 08:00:58,240
going to become obsolete. Cities are
9467
08:00:56,718 --> 08:00:59,920
building for pedestrians. They're
9468
08:00:58,240 --> 08:01:03,360
building for cycling. They're building
9469
08:00:59,920 --> 08:01:06,080
for livability, not for cars.
9470
08:01:03,360 --> 08:01:09,958
>> The bike economy, the multi-billion
9471
08:01:06,080 --> 08:01:09,958
dollar system of Amsterdam.
9472
08:01:11,200 --> 08:01:18,000
In Amsterdam, the bicycle isn't a toy.
9473
08:01:14,638 --> 08:01:20,798
It is a critical urban infrastructure.
9474
08:01:18,000 --> 08:01:25,240
If this system failed today, the city's
9475
08:01:20,798 --> 08:01:25,240
economy would collapse tomorrow.
9476
08:01:25,440 --> 08:01:30,558
For decades, the world has viewed
9477
08:01:27,280 --> 08:01:33,760
Amsterdam through a romantic lens. But
9478
08:01:30,558 --> 08:01:36,320
cities don't run on vibes. They run on
9479
08:01:33,760 --> 08:01:38,240
systems. And when a system moves
9480
08:01:36,320 --> 08:01:41,200
hundreds of thousands of people every
9481
08:01:38,240 --> 08:01:44,398
single day, it stops being a choice and
9482
08:01:41,200 --> 08:01:47,280
starts demanding three things. space,
9483
08:01:44,398 --> 08:01:49,520
rules, and capital.
9484
08:01:47,280 --> 08:01:51,680
Research shows that the cycling system
9485
08:01:49,520 --> 08:01:55,520
contributes benefits equivalent to
9486
08:01:51,680 --> 08:01:58,718
roughly 3% of the Netherlands GDP. This
9487
08:01:55,520 --> 08:02:01,040
isn't just green energy. It's hard cash
9488
08:01:58,718 --> 08:02:03,680
saved in public health, reduced
9489
08:02:01,040 --> 08:02:06,478
absenteeism at work, and most
9490
08:02:03,680 --> 08:02:09,120
importantly, unlocked productivity.
9491
08:02:06,478 --> 08:02:12,160
Every person on a bike is a person who
9492
08:02:09,120 --> 08:02:13,520
isn't taking up 12 m of public space
9493
08:02:12,160 --> 08:02:16,080
with a car.
9494
08:02:13,520 --> 08:02:19,520
that freed up space allows for high
9495
08:02:16,080 --> 08:02:22,240
value real estate, commerce and tourism.
9496
08:02:19,520 --> 08:02:25,878
In economics, we call this optimization
9497
08:02:22,240 --> 08:02:25,878
of land use.
9498
08:02:27,360 --> 08:02:34,240
But success created a crisis. By the
9499
08:02:30,718 --> 08:02:36,320
2010s, Amsterdam had a clutter problem.
9500
08:02:34,240 --> 08:02:39,760
Thousands of bikes were choking the
9501
08:02:36,320 --> 08:02:41,760
streets. The solution? one of the most
9502
08:02:39,760 --> 08:02:44,878
expensive and daring engineering
9503
08:02:41,760 --> 08:02:48,160
projects in the city. They built a
9504
08:02:44,878 --> 08:02:50,320
cathedral for 7,000 bicycles
9505
08:02:48,160 --> 08:02:52,958
under the water.
9506
08:02:50,320 --> 08:02:54,958
It cost millions. From a traditional
9507
08:02:52,958 --> 08:02:58,398
linear perspective, spending that much
9508
08:02:54,958 --> 08:03:00,958
on free parking seems insane. But from a
9509
08:02:58,398 --> 08:03:03,280
circular economy perspective, a model
9510
08:03:00,958 --> 08:03:06,718
where Amsterdam is a global leader with
9511
08:03:03,280 --> 08:03:09,440
30.6% circularity rate, it was a
9512
08:03:06,718 --> 08:03:11,600
mandatory investment. As we see in the
9513
08:03:09,440 --> 08:03:14,160
latest urban governance reports,
9514
08:03:11,600 --> 08:03:16,798
planning isn't an option here. It's the
9515
08:03:14,160 --> 08:03:19,360
only way to exist.
9516
08:03:16,798 --> 08:03:22,478
In this documentary, we are going beyond
9517
08:03:19,360 --> 08:03:25,600
the postcard. We will travel back to
9518
08:03:22,478 --> 08:03:28,798
1965 to see why the first sharing
9519
08:03:25,600 --> 08:03:31,440
economy experiment failed. We will use
9520
08:03:28,798 --> 08:03:34,558
scientific GPS data to track the shadow
9521
08:03:31,440 --> 08:03:38,000
economy of the 80,000 bikes stolen every
9522
08:03:34,558 --> 08:03:40,080
year. and we will explore how Amsterdam
9523
08:03:38,000 --> 08:03:43,600
is using the bicycle to become the
9524
08:03:40,080 --> 08:03:47,040
world's first 100% circular city by
9525
08:03:43,600 --> 08:03:49,120
2050. This is the story of how a humble
9526
08:03:47,040 --> 08:03:51,920
machine with two wheels became the
9527
08:03:49,120 --> 08:03:54,920
backbone of a multi-billion dollar urban
9528
08:03:51,920 --> 08:03:54,920
miracle.
9529
08:03:57,680 --> 08:04:03,760
To understand why Amsterdam spends €85
9530
08:04:00,638 --> 08:04:06,240
million on underwater parking today, we
9531
08:04:03,760 --> 08:04:09,520
have to go back to a time when the city
9532
08:04:06,240 --> 08:04:12,520
almost lost its soul to the car, the
9533
08:04:09,520 --> 08:04:12,520
1960s.
9534
08:04:16,718 --> 08:04:23,040
As postwar prosperity grew, Amsterdam
9535
08:04:19,760 --> 08:04:25,200
was being choked by motor vehicles.
9536
08:04:23,040 --> 08:04:27,280
In response, a counterculture group
9537
08:04:25,200 --> 08:04:29,760
called the Provos launched what would
9538
08:04:27,280 --> 08:04:33,280
become the first bike sharing program in
9539
08:04:29,760 --> 08:04:35,680
history, the Vita Fieten Plan or the
9540
08:04:33,280 --> 08:04:38,240
White Bike Plan.
9541
08:04:35,680 --> 08:04:39,760
Their proposal was radical and purely
9542
08:04:38,240 --> 08:04:42,798
idealistic.
9543
08:04:39,760 --> 08:04:45,280
Paint 20,000 bicycles white, leave them
9544
08:04:42,798 --> 08:04:49,200
unlocked across the city, and let anyone
9545
08:04:45,280 --> 08:04:52,320
use them for free. No keys, no coins, no
9546
08:04:49,200 --> 08:04:55,600
owners. They viewed mobility as a public
9547
08:04:52,320 --> 08:04:58,718
good as essential and free as the air we
9548
08:04:55,600 --> 08:05:02,638
breathe. On paper, it was a circular
9549
08:04:58,718 --> 08:05:05,680
economy. Avant laletra. In practice, it
9550
08:05:02,638 --> 08:05:08,718
was a disaster. Within days, the system
9551
08:05:05,680 --> 08:05:10,478
collapsed. Why? Because the provos
9552
08:05:08,718 --> 08:05:16,120
ignored a fundamental principle of
9553
08:05:10,478 --> 08:05:16,120
economics, the tragedy of the commons.
9554
08:05:51,440 --> 08:05:56,320
Without ownership or registration,
9555
08:05:53,680 --> 08:05:58,718
public property quickly became nobody's
9556
08:05:56,320 --> 08:06:01,040
property. property. In an unregulated
9557
08:05:58,718 --> 08:06:02,878
system with zero entry cost, the
9558
08:06:01,040 --> 08:06:05,040
incentive to maintain the asset
9559
08:06:02,878 --> 08:06:07,680
disappears. Without locks or
9560
08:06:05,040 --> 08:06:10,478
registration, public property quickly
9561
08:06:07,680 --> 08:06:12,398
became nobody's property. The police
9562
08:06:10,478 --> 08:06:15,520
confiscated the bikes because they
9563
08:06:12,398 --> 08:06:18,000
invited theft and the citizens driven by
9564
08:06:15,520 --> 08:06:22,240
individual rationalism either took them
9565
08:06:18,000 --> 08:06:24,958
home or threw them into the canals.
9566
08:06:22,240 --> 08:06:27,040
The lesson was harsh. You cannot have a
9567
08:06:24,958 --> 08:06:29,360
massive urban transit system based
9568
08:06:27,040 --> 08:06:33,000
solely on romanticism.
9569
08:06:29,360 --> 08:06:33,000
You need governance.
9570
08:06:34,718 --> 08:06:40,718
However, the white bikes planted a seed.
9571
08:06:37,760 --> 08:06:42,478
It shifted the economic debate. The city
9572
08:06:40,718 --> 08:06:44,718
realized that if they didn't want to
9573
08:06:42,478 --> 08:06:47,360
spend billions on highways like Los
9574
08:06:44,718 --> 08:06:50,080
Angeles or London, they had to invest in
9575
08:06:47,360 --> 08:06:52,478
a different kind of capital. Transition
9576
08:06:50,080 --> 08:06:55,440
requires not just technology, but a
9577
08:06:52,478 --> 08:06:57,600
change in urban metabolism.
9578
08:06:55,440 --> 08:06:59,840
The failure of the white bikes taught
9579
08:06:57,600 --> 08:07:02,000
Amsterdam that the bicycle had to be
9580
08:06:59,840 --> 08:07:05,120
integrated into the formal economy of
9581
08:07:02,000 --> 08:07:08,798
the city, not as a rebel symbol, but as
9582
08:07:05,120 --> 08:07:10,798
a regulated, taxed, and planned asset.
9583
08:07:08,798 --> 08:07:13,600
Today, the free spirit of the white
9584
08:07:10,798 --> 08:07:16,798
bikes only survives in one place, the
9585
08:07:13,600 --> 08:07:18,958
Hoga Veluve National Park. But in the
9586
08:07:16,798 --> 08:07:21,760
city, the white bike has been replaced
9587
08:07:18,958 --> 08:07:24,240
by a sophisticated capital incentive
9588
08:07:21,760 --> 08:07:26,558
model. We no longer trust in the
9589
08:07:24,240 --> 08:07:29,600
goodness of the user. We trust in
9590
08:07:26,558 --> 08:07:32,000
incentives. We move the tragedy of the
9591
08:07:29,600 --> 08:07:35,200
commons to a system of managed common
9592
08:07:32,000 --> 08:07:38,320
pool resources. In economics, success
9593
08:07:35,200 --> 08:07:41,200
can be as disruptive as failure. By the
9594
08:07:38,320 --> 08:07:43,760
late 2010s, Amsterdam was a victim of
9595
08:07:41,200 --> 08:07:46,240
its own efficiency. With nearly 1
9596
08:07:43,760 --> 08:07:49,040
million bicycles in the city, the urban
9597
08:07:46,240 --> 08:07:51,920
surface had reached a breaking point.
9598
08:07:49,040 --> 08:07:55,120
Every bridge, railing, and sidewalk was
9599
08:07:51,920 --> 08:07:57,680
occupied by idle metal.
9600
08:07:55,120 --> 08:08:00,798
This wasn't just an aesthetic grievance.
9601
08:07:57,680 --> 08:08:03,120
It was an economic bottleneck. Thousands
9602
08:08:00,798 --> 08:08:06,160
of parked bikes were clogging the city's
9603
08:08:03,120 --> 08:08:09,200
arteries, slowing down 200,000 daily
9604
08:08:06,160 --> 08:08:11,280
commuters at Central Station. In one of
9605
08:08:09,200 --> 08:08:13,920
the world's most expensive real estate
9606
08:08:11,280 --> 08:08:16,240
markets, free surface parking is a
9607
08:08:13,920 --> 08:08:18,798
luxury that a functional city cannot
9608
08:08:16,240 --> 08:08:22,160
afford. The opportunity cost of that
9609
08:08:18,798 --> 08:08:25,520
space was becoming too high. To solve
9610
08:08:22,160 --> 08:08:28,478
this, Amsterdam launched the entre, a
9611
08:08:25,520 --> 08:08:31,280
massive urban reconfiguration project.
9612
08:08:28,478 --> 08:08:34,478
The crown jewel, the open haven
9613
08:08:31,280 --> 08:08:38,000
underwater parking. Consider that
9614
08:08:34,478 --> 08:08:41,360
figure. Spending €60 million just to
9615
08:08:38,000 --> 08:08:43,680
store 7,000 bicycles underwater.
9616
08:08:41,360 --> 08:08:46,878
To a traditional accountant, this looks
9617
08:08:43,680 --> 08:08:49,520
like a massive sunk cost. But to an
9618
08:08:46,878 --> 08:08:53,280
urban economist, it's a master stroke of
9619
08:08:49,520 --> 08:08:55,600
asset management. By moving 7,000 bikes
9620
08:08:53,280 --> 08:08:58,398
beneath the water, the city performed
9621
08:08:55,600 --> 08:09:00,398
open heart surgery on its central hub.
9622
08:08:58,398 --> 08:09:03,680
They reclaimed the surface, restoring
9623
08:09:00,398 --> 08:09:06,000
the landscape to its 1900's aesthetic.
9624
08:09:03,680 --> 08:09:09,280
This isn't just about beauty. It's about
9625
08:09:06,000 --> 08:09:11,520
maximizing pedestrian flow. A station
9626
08:09:09,280 --> 08:09:14,160
that breathes and flows is a station
9627
08:09:11,520 --> 08:09:17,200
that generates higher economic value for
9628
08:09:14,160 --> 08:09:20,240
the surrounding businesses. However, an
9629
08:09:17,200 --> 08:09:22,080
85 million euro asset must be managed
9630
08:09:20,240 --> 08:09:25,040
like a high performance logistics
9631
08:09:22,080 --> 08:09:27,760
center. You cannot allow zombie bikes to
9632
08:09:25,040 --> 08:09:29,760
occupy these slots indefinitely.
9633
08:09:27,760 --> 08:09:33,360
This is where the incentive structure
9634
08:09:29,760 --> 08:09:36,718
comes into play. The primary goal isn't
9635
08:09:33,360 --> 08:09:39,280
profit, it's turnover. By offering the
9636
08:09:36,718 --> 08:09:42,638
first 24 hours for free, the city
9637
08:09:39,280 --> 08:09:45,120
subsidizes the daily workforce. But by
9638
08:09:42,638 --> 08:09:47,200
charging a daily fee thereafter, they
9639
08:09:45,120 --> 08:09:50,080
penalize long-term storage and
9640
08:09:47,200 --> 08:09:52,958
abandonment. Using advanced optical
9641
08:09:50,080 --> 08:09:56,160
sensors, the city monitors idle infantry
9642
08:09:52,958 --> 08:09:58,798
in real time, ensuring that these 7,000
9643
08:09:56,160 --> 08:10:03,000
slots remain a liquid asset for those
9644
08:09:58,798 --> 08:10:03,000
who keep the economy moving.
9645
08:10:03,040 --> 08:10:08,280
Finally, we must consider the cost of
9646
08:10:05,280 --> 08:10:08,280
friction.
9647
08:10:12,638 --> 08:10:15,638
Transport,
9648
08:10:38,718 --> 08:10:41,798
the last
9649
08:10:43,680 --> 08:10:48,558
In transport economics, every second
9650
08:10:46,000 --> 08:10:50,798
lost in a transfer is a loss in human
9651
08:10:48,558 --> 08:10:52,878
capital and productivity.
9652
08:10:50,798 --> 08:10:54,878
This underwater facility connects
9653
08:10:52,878 --> 08:10:56,398
directly to the metro and train
9654
08:10:54,878 --> 08:10:58,478
platforms.
9655
08:10:56,398 --> 08:11:00,958
The commuter can transition from their
9656
08:10:58,478 --> 08:11:03,920
bicycle to their train seat in less than
9657
08:11:00,958 --> 08:11:06,558
2 minutes, shielded from the elements.
9658
08:11:03,920 --> 08:11:08,798
This level of intermodel synergy is
9659
08:11:06,558 --> 08:11:12,478
exactly what makes Amsterdam's circular
9660
08:11:08,798 --> 08:11:15,440
economy, currently at a record 30.6%
9661
08:11:12,478 --> 08:11:20,040
circularity rate, a functional reality
9662
08:11:15,440 --> 08:11:20,040
rather than just a policy goal.
9663
08:11:42,798 --> 08:11:47,360
But this transition to a highly
9664
08:11:44,558 --> 08:11:49,600
regulated system created its own set of
9665
08:11:47,360 --> 08:11:52,478
problems. Because when you turn a
9666
08:11:49,600 --> 08:11:54,958
bicycle into a valuable economic asset,
9667
08:11:52,478 --> 08:11:58,478
you create something else, a black
9668
08:11:54,958 --> 08:12:01,360
market. In Amsterdam, data doesn't tell
9669
08:11:58,478 --> 08:12:04,160
the whole story. While police record
9670
08:12:01,360 --> 08:12:07,040
11,000 thefts a year, the reality is
9671
08:12:04,160 --> 08:12:09,920
closer to 80,000.
9672
08:12:07,040 --> 08:12:12,478
Most citizens don't report it. Cost of
9673
08:12:09,920 --> 08:12:14,718
time is higher than the bike's value.
9674
08:12:12,478 --> 08:12:16,958
This creates a massive shadow market
9675
08:12:14,718 --> 08:12:20,160
operating entirely outside the official
9676
08:12:16,958 --> 08:12:23,200
GDP. Forget the myth of international
9677
08:12:20,160 --> 08:12:26,958
bike smuggling rings.
9678
08:12:23,200 --> 08:12:29,120
A 2023 study tracking 100 bikes proved
9679
08:12:26,958 --> 08:12:32,240
that stolen assets rarely leave the
9680
08:12:29,120 --> 08:12:34,958
city. Instead, they feed a shadow
9681
08:12:32,240 --> 08:12:37,040
circular economy. Your stolen bike is
9682
08:12:34,958 --> 08:12:39,600
sold to a street dealer and then bought
9683
08:12:37,040 --> 08:12:44,398
by your neighbor. It's a localized,
9684
08:12:39,600 --> 08:12:46,478
untaxed, and illegal closed loop.
9685
08:12:44,398 --> 08:12:49,120
High theft risk creates a market
9686
08:12:46,478 --> 08:12:51,520
distortion. If you expect your bike to
9687
08:12:49,120 --> 08:12:55,280
be stolen within months, you don't buy
9688
08:12:51,520 --> 08:12:57,600
quality, you buy junk. This beta bike
9689
08:12:55,280 --> 08:13:00,240
equilibrium keeps the city's transport
9690
08:12:57,600 --> 08:13:02,240
fleet low quality and forces owners to
9691
08:13:00,240 --> 08:13:04,240
spend more on locks than the bikes
9692
08:13:02,240 --> 08:13:07,040
themselves.
9693
08:13:04,240 --> 08:13:09,360
These aren't victimless crimes. They are
9694
08:13:07,040 --> 08:13:13,280
negative externalities that drain city
9695
08:13:09,360 --> 08:13:16,240
resources. Amsterdam's answer, the Fiat
9696
08:13:13,280 --> 08:13:18,638
Depo. Since the city couldn't stop the
9697
08:13:16,240 --> 08:13:21,760
theft, it decided to manage the orphaned
9698
08:13:18,638 --> 08:13:24,398
assets. Because in a circular city, even
9699
08:13:21,760 --> 08:13:26,000
a stolen bike is a resource that must be
9700
08:13:24,398 --> 08:13:29,000
managed to maintain the urban
9701
08:13:26,000 --> 08:13:29,000
metabolism.
9702
08:13:29,440 --> 08:13:33,680
In a city with more bicycles than
9703
08:13:31,520 --> 08:13:35,440
people, orphaned assets are an
9704
08:13:33,680 --> 08:13:37,280
inevitability.
9705
08:13:35,440 --> 08:13:40,320
Every year, thousands of bikes are
9706
08:13:37,280 --> 08:13:42,958
simply left behind. In economic terms,
9707
08:13:40,320 --> 08:13:45,680
this is dead capital. They occupy
9708
08:13:42,958 --> 08:13:47,600
valuable public space, provide zero
9709
08:13:45,680 --> 08:13:49,200
utility, and degrade the urban
9710
08:13:47,600 --> 08:13:51,120
landscape.
9711
08:13:49,200 --> 08:13:53,520
According to official Amsterdam
9712
08:13:51,120 --> 08:13:56,000
regulations, the city must intervene
9713
08:13:53,520 --> 08:13:58,160
when private property interferes with
9714
08:13:56,000 --> 08:14:00,798
public efficiency.
9715
08:13:58,160 --> 08:14:03,680
Whether is an improperly parked bike
9716
08:14:00,798 --> 08:14:05,760
blocking an emergency exit or a wreck
9717
08:14:03,680 --> 08:14:08,000
that is no longer functional, the
9718
08:14:05,760 --> 08:14:11,840
municipality acts as the ultimate
9719
08:14:08,000 --> 08:14:14,638
enforcer of spatial order.
9720
08:14:11,840 --> 08:14:18,240
All seized bicycles are transported to a
9721
08:14:14,638 --> 08:14:20,478
central facility, the Fiat's depot. This
9722
08:14:18,240 --> 08:14:23,600
is a logistical powerhouse that manages
9723
08:14:20,478 --> 08:14:26,478
the city's lost capital. This isn't just
9724
08:14:23,600 --> 08:14:30,160
a pound. It's a sorting facility for the
9725
08:14:26,478 --> 08:14:32,160
city's metal metabolism, the retrieval.
9726
08:14:30,160 --> 08:14:36,320
Owners have around 6 weeks to claim
9727
08:14:32,160 --> 08:14:38,240
their bike for a fee, approximately €25.
9728
08:14:36,320 --> 08:14:40,638
This fee doesn't cover the full
9729
08:14:38,240 --> 08:14:43,840
operational cost, but it serves as a
9730
08:14:40,638 --> 08:14:46,240
user pays tax to discourage abandonment.
9731
08:14:43,840 --> 08:14:48,718
If your bicycle was removed from a city
9732
08:14:46,240 --> 08:14:50,718
parking facility, you will also pay
9733
08:14:48,718 --> 08:14:55,200
33.75
9734
08:14:50,718 --> 08:14:58,478
parking cost. The sorting only about 25%
9735
08:14:55,200 --> 08:15:01,440
of bikes are ever reclaimed. The rest
9736
08:14:58,478 --> 08:15:03,440
they are classified as waste or asset.
9737
08:15:01,440 --> 08:15:08,080
Here is where the circular economy
9738
08:15:03,440 --> 08:15:10,958
strategy 2020 to 2025 becomes tangible.
9739
08:15:08,080 --> 08:15:15,200
Amsterdam aims to reduce the use of new
9740
08:15:10,958 --> 08:15:17,440
raw materials by 50% by 2030.
9741
08:15:15,200 --> 08:15:19,280
The Fiat's depot doesn't just scrap
9742
08:15:17,440 --> 08:15:22,160
everything.
9743
08:15:19,280 --> 08:15:24,320
Refurbishment. Bikes in decent condition
9744
08:15:22,160 --> 08:15:27,200
are sold to social enterprises or
9745
08:15:24,320 --> 08:15:29,840
secondhand shops. They are recirculated
9746
08:15:27,200 --> 08:15:31,920
into the economy at a low price point,
9747
08:15:29,840 --> 08:15:34,478
providing affordable mobility for
9748
08:15:31,920 --> 08:15:36,080
lowincome residents.
9749
08:15:34,478 --> 08:15:38,398
Education.
9750
08:15:36,080 --> 08:15:41,120
Many are used in vocational training
9751
08:15:38,398 --> 08:15:43,760
programs, turning junk, into a teaching
9752
08:15:41,120 --> 08:15:46,718
tool for future mechanics. Raw
9753
08:15:43,760 --> 08:15:49,600
materials, the unsalvageable ones, are
9754
08:15:46,718 --> 08:15:52,798
sold as highquality scrap metal, feeding
9755
08:15:49,600 --> 08:15:54,798
back into the industrial cycle.
9756
08:15:52,798 --> 08:15:58,240
What we see here is a complete life
9757
08:15:54,798 --> 08:16:00,000
cycle management of a transport mode.
9758
08:15:58,240 --> 08:16:02,000
The biggest challenge for circular
9759
08:16:00,000 --> 08:16:04,718
cities is the lack of effective
9760
08:16:02,000 --> 08:16:06,878
governance mechanisms. Amsterdam
9761
08:16:04,718 --> 08:16:09,440
succeeds because it treats the bicycle
9762
08:16:06,878 --> 08:16:11,760
as a public utility. From the
9763
08:16:09,440 --> 08:16:14,320
multi-million euro investment under the
9764
08:16:11,760 --> 08:16:16,160
water to the scrap metal in the harbor,
9765
08:16:14,320 --> 08:16:20,920
the city manages the entire
9766
08:16:16,160 --> 08:16:20,920
cradletograve cycle of the bicycle.
9767
08:16:22,718 --> 08:16:27,280
Amsterdam is no longer just building
9768
08:16:24,878 --> 08:16:30,878
bike lanes. It is building a new
9769
08:16:27,280 --> 08:16:34,240
economic DNA. The city has set a target
9770
08:16:30,878 --> 08:16:39,558
that many economists call impossible to
9771
08:16:34,240 --> 08:16:39,558
be 100% circular by 2050.
9772
08:16:40,398 --> 08:16:46,000
This means that by midentury, every gram
9773
08:16:43,280 --> 08:16:48,558
of steel in a bicycle and every stone in
9774
08:16:46,000 --> 08:16:52,478
a bridge must stay within the economic
9775
08:16:48,558 --> 08:16:55,680
loop. The take, make, waste model will
9776
08:16:52,478 --> 08:16:58,478
be extinct. For Amsterdam, the bicycle
9777
08:16:55,680 --> 08:17:01,040
is the alpha product, the test case for
9778
08:16:58,478 --> 08:17:03,280
how a city can move, consume, and
9779
08:17:01,040 --> 08:17:05,040
recycle without depleting the planet's
9780
08:17:03,280 --> 08:17:08,160
capital.
9781
08:17:05,040 --> 08:17:10,398
To reach 100% circularity, the concept
9782
08:17:08,160 --> 08:17:13,680
of private ownership is being challenged
9783
08:17:10,398 --> 08:17:16,398
by a more efficient model, product as a
9784
08:17:13,680 --> 08:17:18,398
service. You don't buy the bike, you
9785
08:17:16,398 --> 08:17:20,320
rent the mobility.
9786
08:17:18,398 --> 08:17:21,920
So, we talk a lot about ownership as a
9787
08:17:20,320 --> 08:17:24,958
service, but it's this idea of, you
9788
08:17:21,920 --> 08:17:27,280
know, something as a service. So, in our
9789
08:17:24,958 --> 08:17:29,280
case, bike as a service, it's all of the
9790
08:17:27,280 --> 08:17:30,958
benefits of ownership, but none of the
9791
08:17:29,280 --> 08:17:32,958
drawbacks. So none of having to deal
9792
08:17:30,958 --> 08:17:34,558
with the maintenance or or any of the
9793
08:17:32,958 --> 08:17:35,600
things that come with actually owning
9794
08:17:34,558 --> 08:17:37,840
something.
9795
08:17:35,600 --> 08:17:40,798
>> Economically, this aligns the incentives
9796
08:17:37,840 --> 08:17:43,600
of the producer and the consumer. If the
9797
08:17:40,798 --> 08:17:46,320
bike breaks, it's the company's problem,
9798
08:17:43,600 --> 08:17:48,080
not yours. By centralizing all that
9799
08:17:46,320 --> 08:17:49,600
maintenance, obviously we cut cost
9800
08:17:48,080 --> 08:17:51,760
significantly. We cut waste
9801
08:17:49,600 --> 08:17:54,320
significantly. Um, but for the
9802
08:17:51,760 --> 08:17:55,840
individual user, um, they have nothing
9803
08:17:54,320 --> 08:17:57,120
to worry about. You know, as a
9804
08:17:55,840 --> 08:17:58,558
subscriber, you get all of your
9805
08:17:57,120 --> 08:18:00,320
maintenance. So we come and do
9806
08:17:58,558 --> 08:18:02,478
preventative maintenance. So first of
9807
08:18:00,320 --> 08:18:04,638
all that obviously reduced the cost um
9808
08:18:02,478 --> 08:18:06,638
overall not so much to the end user but
9809
08:18:04,638 --> 08:18:08,080
the cost of the business. Um that
9810
08:18:06,638 --> 08:18:10,798
prevents breakdowns and things like
9811
08:18:08,080 --> 08:18:14,080
that. But in the end if you think about
9812
08:18:10,798 --> 08:18:15,440
um the cost of time, the cost of effort
9813
08:18:14,080 --> 08:18:17,200
um maybe you don't even know how to
9814
08:18:15,440 --> 08:18:18,798
maintain your own bike. Um having a
9815
08:18:17,200 --> 08:18:20,958
service that does all of that for you is
9816
08:18:18,798 --> 08:18:23,600
just a a matter of convenience.
9817
08:18:20,958 --> 08:18:26,558
>> This forces manufacturers to design for
9818
08:18:23,600 --> 08:18:29,520
durability and modularity. the core
9819
08:18:26,558 --> 08:18:31,840
pillars of this circular economy. When
9820
08:18:29,520 --> 08:18:33,840
the city manages the flow and private
9821
08:18:31,840 --> 08:18:37,360
companies manage the maintenance, the
9822
08:18:33,840 --> 08:18:38,798
shadow economy of theft we saw in Act 3
9823
08:18:37,360 --> 08:18:40,718
begins to shrink.
9824
08:18:38,798 --> 08:18:42,240
>> So if you subscribe to a bike from
9825
08:18:40,718 --> 08:18:43,920
Clover and your bike gets stolen, first
9826
08:18:42,240 --> 08:18:45,920
of all, we actually probably will notice
9827
08:18:43,920 --> 08:18:48,320
that it got stolen maybe even before you
9828
08:18:45,920 --> 08:18:50,558
did because we have GPS on all the
9829
08:18:48,320 --> 08:18:52,798
bikes. Um, but if it does get stolen,
9830
08:18:50,558 --> 08:18:54,240
you use our WhatsApp chat. You basically
9831
08:18:52,798 --> 08:18:56,000
send us a message and we come and bring
9832
08:18:54,240 --> 08:18:58,320
you a new bike immediately.
9833
08:18:56,000 --> 08:19:00,878
>> Why steal a bike that is tracked,
9834
08:18:58,320 --> 08:19:04,320
branded, and has no resale value in a
9835
08:19:00,878 --> 08:19:06,080
subscription-based market.
9836
08:19:04,320 --> 08:19:08,638
So, what is the final return on
9837
08:19:06,080 --> 08:19:12,320
investment? Let's look at the triple
9838
08:19:08,638 --> 08:19:14,718
bottom line, public health. By avoiding
9839
08:19:12,320 --> 08:19:17,360
11,000 deaths annually through active
9840
08:19:14,718 --> 08:19:21,040
transport, the Dutch economy saves 19
9841
08:19:17,360 --> 08:19:24,240
billion in health care costs.
9842
08:19:21,040 --> 08:19:26,878
urban density. By utilizing underwater
9843
08:19:24,240 --> 08:19:29,200
parking and vertical depots, Amsterdam
9844
08:19:26,878 --> 08:19:31,520
maintains a population density that
9845
08:19:29,200 --> 08:19:35,200
would be impossible with cars, keeping
9846
08:19:31,520 --> 08:19:37,920
real estate productivity at peak levels.
9847
08:19:35,200 --> 08:19:40,478
Resource independence by reclaiming
9848
08:19:37,920 --> 08:19:43,120
metal from the Fiats depot. The city
9849
08:19:40,478 --> 08:19:45,920
insulates itself from global commodity
9850
08:19:43,120 --> 08:19:49,040
price shocks. This is a sustainable
9851
08:19:45,920 --> 08:19:51,280
urban metabolism. The city isn't just a
9852
08:19:49,040 --> 08:19:53,840
place where people live. It's a living
9853
08:19:51,280 --> 08:19:56,240
organism that processes resources with
9854
08:19:53,840 --> 08:19:58,478
maximum efficiency.
9855
08:19:56,240 --> 08:20:00,878
Amsterdam's success has sent a clear
9856
08:19:58,478 --> 08:20:03,120
message to the rest of the continent.
9857
08:20:00,878 --> 08:20:06,000
Spatial efficiency is the only way
9858
08:20:03,120 --> 08:20:08,398
forward for the modern metropolis.
9859
08:20:06,000 --> 08:20:10,398
Across Europe, the bicycle has moved
9860
08:20:08,398 --> 08:20:12,558
from being a leisure tool to a
9861
08:20:10,398 --> 08:20:14,798
cornerstone of urban recovery and
9862
08:20:12,558 --> 08:20:17,440
economic resilience.
9863
08:20:14,798 --> 08:20:20,478
In Paris, a city once defined by its
9864
08:20:17,440 --> 08:20:23,120
congestion, the plano is investing
9865
08:20:20,478 --> 08:20:26,558
hundreds of millions to become 100%
9866
08:20:23,120 --> 08:20:28,878
cyclable. In Barcelona, the super blocks
9867
08:20:26,558 --> 08:20:33,200
are reclaiming entire intersections from
9868
08:20:28,878 --> 08:20:34,878
cars to create humanentric lungs.
9869
08:20:33,200 --> 08:20:38,398
These aren't just environmental
9870
08:20:34,878 --> 08:20:40,878
projects. They are market corrections.
9871
08:20:38,398 --> 08:20:43,360
The cities are betting that a quieter,
9872
08:20:40,878 --> 08:20:45,760
cleaner, and more agile urban center
9873
08:20:43,360 --> 08:20:48,638
will attract more talent, more tourism,
9874
08:20:45,760 --> 08:20:51,280
and higher property values.
9875
08:20:48,638 --> 08:20:53,760
From the cycle superighways of London to
9876
08:20:51,280 --> 08:20:56,798
the industrial hubs of Germany, the
9877
08:20:53,760 --> 08:21:00,160
economic logic is consistent. Replacing
9878
08:20:56,798 --> 08:21:02,558
a 1 and 1/2 ton vehicle with a 15 kg
9879
08:21:00,160 --> 08:21:04,478
machine reduces the cost of maintenance
9880
08:21:02,558 --> 08:21:07,360
for the city and increases the
9881
08:21:04,478 --> 08:21:09,520
productivity of the citizen.
9882
08:21:07,360 --> 08:21:11,760
But while northern capitals have the
9883
08:21:09,520 --> 08:21:14,558
advantage of decades of infrastructure,
9884
08:21:11,760 --> 08:21:16,558
the real test is happening in the south.
9885
08:21:14,558 --> 08:21:18,798
In the Mediterranean, where the street
9886
08:21:16,558 --> 08:21:21,120
is a social space and the sun is a
9887
08:21:18,798 --> 08:21:23,760
constant resource, a new leader is
9888
08:21:21,120 --> 08:21:26,240
emerging. A city that has used the
9889
08:21:23,760 --> 08:21:30,120
Amsterdam blueprint to transform itself
9890
08:21:26,240 --> 08:21:30,120
at record speed.
9891
08:21:42,080 --> 08:21:45,080
forgo.
9892
08:22:33,200 --> 08:22:39,320
If Amsterdam is the blueprint, Valencia
9893
08:22:35,840 --> 08:22:39,320
is the laboratory.
9894
08:22:40,398 --> 08:22:43,398
Okay.
9895
08:22:52,240 --> 08:22:55,638
Not the fact
9896
08:23:22,958 --> 08:23:27,200
In less than a decade, this
9897
08:23:24,638 --> 08:23:29,600
Mediterranean city has transitioned from
9898
08:23:27,200 --> 08:23:33,798
a car ccentric capital to a global
9899
08:23:29,600 --> 08:23:33,798
reference in urban metabolism.
9900
08:23:55,440 --> 08:24:01,040
Valencia's transformation wasn't a
9901
08:23:57,760 --> 08:24:03,120
matter of vibes or romanticism. It was a
9902
08:24:01,040 --> 08:24:04,718
calculated investment in spatial
9903
08:24:03,120 --> 08:24:06,958
efficiency.
9904
08:24:04,718 --> 08:24:08,558
>> I think attracting top global talent
9905
08:24:06,958 --> 08:24:10,398
means that you need to have a vibrant,
9906
08:24:08,558 --> 08:24:12,398
livable city. And I think most young
9907
08:24:10,398 --> 08:24:14,558
people um particularly who are coming
9908
08:24:12,398 --> 08:24:16,638
into the workforce now are looking for
9909
08:24:14,558 --> 08:24:19,120
ways to get around a city that doesn't
9910
08:24:16,638 --> 08:24:21,760
rely on public transit. They don't want
9911
08:24:19,120 --> 08:24:23,680
to own a car um because car ownership is
9912
08:24:21,760 --> 08:24:25,920
a total burden. Having to find parking,
9913
08:24:23,680 --> 08:24:27,440
insurance, cost of the car, all of that.
9914
08:24:25,920 --> 08:24:29,680
So having this accessible
9915
08:24:27,440 --> 08:24:31,520
infrastructure, cycling infrastructure
9916
08:24:29,680 --> 08:24:33,520
specifically, and in a city like
9917
08:24:31,520 --> 08:24:35,520
Valencia that, you know, already has a
9918
08:24:33,520 --> 08:24:37,920
lot of reasons to attract top talent,
9919
08:24:35,520 --> 08:24:39,680
just makes it that much better. Um,
9920
08:24:37,920 --> 08:24:41,440
cycling is a preferred way to get around
9921
08:24:39,680 --> 08:24:43,440
in Valencia, we're number seven in the
9922
08:24:41,440 --> 08:24:45,440
world for cycling to work, for example.
9923
08:24:43,440 --> 08:24:47,680
So adding a layer of an easy
9924
08:24:45,440 --> 08:24:49,920
subscription ebike service to that just
9925
08:24:47,680 --> 08:24:51,840
again attracts even more um top talent
9926
08:24:49,920 --> 08:24:54,878
to the city.
9927
08:24:51,840 --> 08:24:56,958
By implementing the Anilo Crista, the
9928
08:24:54,878 --> 08:24:59,760
city has reclaimed high value public
9929
08:24:56,958 --> 08:25:02,080
space to boost local commerce and reduce
9930
08:24:59,760 --> 08:25:04,240
the toxic liability of the car.
9931
08:25:02,080 --> 08:25:06,000
>> It's important to remember that um often
9932
08:25:04,240 --> 08:25:07,680
times with cars, although they can fit
9933
08:25:06,000 --> 08:25:09,680
multiple people, most of the time it's
9934
08:25:07,680 --> 08:25:11,440
one person per one car. So when we're
9935
08:25:09,680 --> 08:25:13,360
asking about, you know, 10 bikes versus
9936
08:25:11,440 --> 08:25:15,600
one car, we're essentially saying 10
9937
08:25:13,360 --> 08:25:17,360
people versus one person. So we have a
9938
08:25:15,600 --> 08:25:18,878
10x multiplier on essentially everything
9939
08:25:17,360 --> 08:25:20,240
that's happening on that street. Whether
9940
08:25:18,878 --> 08:25:22,080
that be visits to businesses, whether
9941
08:25:20,240 --> 08:25:23,520
that be transactions and purchases,
9942
08:25:22,080 --> 08:25:25,440
everything gets that 10x multiplier and
9943
08:25:23,520 --> 08:25:27,920
increases revenue for the whole street.
9944
08:25:25,440 --> 08:25:30,240
>> In economics, this is the optimization
9945
08:25:27,920 --> 08:25:32,478
of land use. The same principle that
9946
08:25:30,240 --> 08:25:33,360
drove Amsterdam to build under its
9947
08:25:32,478 --> 08:25:35,120
canals.
9948
08:25:33,360 --> 08:25:37,920
>> If I'm cycling and I pass by, for
9949
08:25:35,120 --> 08:25:39,280
example, a bakery, go I smell that
9950
08:25:37,920 --> 08:25:40,558
bakery and I go, "Oh, you know what?
9951
08:25:39,280 --> 08:25:42,320
Maybe I'm going to stop in, try
9952
08:25:40,558 --> 08:25:43,840
something, one of those products." Um,
9953
08:25:42,320 --> 08:25:45,120
you know, essentially become a patron of
9954
08:25:43,840 --> 08:25:46,638
that business. Whereas if I'm passing by
9955
08:25:45,120 --> 08:25:49,200
in a car, there's no chance of that
9956
08:25:46,638 --> 08:25:50,878
happening. And the other benefit is um
9957
08:25:49,200 --> 08:25:52,718
car parking also has this sort of
9958
08:25:50,878 --> 08:25:54,478
psychological effect on the streets and
9959
08:25:52,718 --> 08:25:56,080
the people that live there. Car parking
9960
08:25:54,478 --> 08:25:58,160
makes the space feel a lot more closed
9961
08:25:56,080 --> 08:25:59,600
in and a lot more cramped than bike
9962
08:25:58,160 --> 08:26:00,798
parking, which keeps the space very nice
9963
08:25:59,600 --> 08:26:02,798
and open.
9964
08:26:00,798 --> 08:26:05,600
>> Emerging businesses are shifting the
9965
08:26:02,798 --> 08:26:07,840
market from ownership to usership.
9966
08:26:05,600 --> 08:26:09,440
>> You know, our customers, they depend on
9967
08:26:07,840 --> 08:26:11,840
their bikes as a reliable way to get
9968
08:26:09,440 --> 08:26:14,318
around. And so we use an ownership as a
9969
08:26:11,840 --> 08:26:16,638
service model. So instead of owning the
9970
08:26:14,318 --> 08:26:18,478
asset yourself, um you subscribe to it
9971
08:26:16,638 --> 08:26:20,160
from us. And we think that's what
9972
08:26:18,478 --> 08:26:22,000
customers need in terms of reliable
9973
08:26:20,160 --> 08:26:24,638
day-to-day transportation. If you look
9974
08:26:22,000 --> 08:26:27,280
at something like Lime or Valon BC, they
9975
08:26:24,638 --> 08:26:29,680
will have that idle asset problem. Um
9976
08:26:27,280 --> 08:26:31,520
and certainly ownership obviously the
9977
08:26:29,680 --> 08:26:33,920
same thing. But with us, you know,
9978
08:26:31,520 --> 08:26:35,760
handling maintenance, battery swapping,
9979
08:26:33,920 --> 08:26:38,080
theft protection, insurance, all of
9980
08:26:35,760 --> 08:26:39,920
that. Um and yet still having access to
9981
08:26:38,080 --> 08:26:42,240
the bike anytime you want. It's your
9982
08:26:39,920 --> 08:26:44,718
bike. Subscription models like Swap
9983
08:26:42,240 --> 08:26:47,600
Fiats, which already dominate the Dutch
9984
08:26:44,718 --> 08:26:50,080
market, are landing in Valencia. These
9985
08:26:47,600 --> 08:26:52,160
companies treat the bike as a service,
9986
08:26:50,080 --> 08:26:53,440
covering all maintenance and repairs for
9987
08:26:52,160 --> 08:26:55,120
a monthly fee.
9988
08:26:53,440 --> 08:26:57,280
>> Ownership isn't necessarily a bad
9989
08:26:55,120 --> 08:26:58,958
investment, but I think um most
9990
08:26:57,280 --> 08:27:00,318
consumers are moving away from owning
9991
08:26:58,958 --> 08:27:02,160
things. You know, people are leasing
9992
08:27:00,318 --> 08:27:04,798
their cars, people are, you know, more
9993
08:27:02,160 --> 08:27:06,638
and more renting their homes. Um so for
9994
08:27:04,798 --> 08:27:08,878
us, a subscription model made sense.
9995
08:27:06,638 --> 08:27:11,120
That and affordability. This eliminates
9996
08:27:08,878 --> 08:27:14,080
the fear of theft and long-term
9997
08:27:11,120 --> 08:27:16,318
depreciation, turning the bicycle into a
9998
08:27:14,080 --> 08:27:19,600
predictable low- friction utility for
9999
08:27:16,318 --> 08:27:22,558
the modern worker. The impact extends to
10000
08:27:19,600 --> 08:27:24,558
logistics. In Valencia's historic
10001
08:27:22,558 --> 08:27:26,958
center, where large trucks are
10002
08:27:24,558 --> 08:27:29,440
increasingly restricted, last mile
10003
08:27:26,958 --> 08:27:31,840
delivery by cargo bike is becoming the
10004
08:27:29,440 --> 08:27:34,878
gold standard for efficiency. We are
10005
08:27:31,840 --> 08:27:37,120
witnessing the birth of microhubs, small
10006
08:27:34,878 --> 08:27:39,760
urban distribution centers that allow
10007
08:27:37,120 --> 08:27:42,718
for zero emission high-speed delivery in
10008
08:27:39,760 --> 08:27:45,040
highdensity zones. From the massive
10009
08:27:42,718 --> 08:27:46,958
underwater investments in Amsterdam to
10010
08:27:45,040 --> 08:27:50,240
the emerging subscription models in
10011
08:27:46,958 --> 08:27:53,200
Valencia, the message is clear. The
10012
08:27:50,240 --> 08:27:55,680
bicycle is no longer just a hobby. It is
10013
08:27:53,200 --> 08:27:57,520
a financial instrument and a spatial
10014
08:27:55,680 --> 08:27:58,638
optimizer.
10015
08:27:57,520 --> 08:28:01,120
You know, when we were speaking to
10016
08:27:58,638 --> 08:28:03,440
consumers about how we could get them to
10017
08:28:01,120 --> 08:28:05,280
switch from a car to an ebike, it was
10018
08:28:03,440 --> 08:28:07,520
all about convenience. So, it was about
10019
08:28:05,280 --> 08:28:09,520
this idea that, you know, with a car,
10020
08:28:07,520 --> 08:28:11,200
you can go point A to point B whenever
10021
08:28:09,520 --> 08:28:13,360
you want. You're not relying on public
10022
08:28:11,200 --> 08:28:15,440
transit or any of those things. But if
10023
08:28:13,360 --> 08:28:17,120
you need gas, you go to a gas station,
10024
08:28:15,440 --> 08:28:19,440
it takes 5 minutes, and you're back on
10025
08:28:17,120 --> 08:28:21,280
your way. People perceived ebikes as
10026
08:28:19,440 --> 08:28:22,718
inconvenient because, oh, what if I
10027
08:28:21,280 --> 08:28:24,878
forget to charge the battery? Then it's
10028
08:28:22,718 --> 08:28:27,040
just kind of a very heavy paper weight.
10029
08:28:24,878 --> 08:28:28,718
Um, but if we eliminate that need for
10030
08:28:27,040 --> 08:28:31,200
charging and people can just come and
10031
08:28:28,718 --> 08:28:33,200
collect a charge battery anytime, um, it
10032
08:28:31,200 --> 08:28:36,000
helps break that barrier to entry for
10033
08:28:33,200 --> 08:28:38,000
getting out of a car. By integrating
10034
08:28:36,000 --> 08:28:40,558
these new business models with public
10035
08:28:38,000 --> 08:28:43,520
planning, Valencia is securing its place
10036
08:28:40,558 --> 08:28:46,240
in the 21st century economy. Proving
10037
08:28:43,520 --> 08:28:49,680
that a dense functional city isn't just
10038
08:28:46,240 --> 08:28:51,600
a choice, it's a competitive necessity.
10039
08:28:49,680 --> 08:28:53,600
>> Ultimately, private car ownership is
10040
08:28:51,600 --> 08:28:55,120
going to become obsolete. Cities are
10041
08:28:53,600 --> 08:28:56,798
building for pedestrians. They're
10042
08:28:55,120 --> 08:28:59,360
building for cycling. They're building
10043
08:28:56,798 --> 08:29:01,360
for livability, not for cars.
10044
08:28:59,360 --> 08:29:03,520
>> Throughout this documentary, we have
10045
08:29:01,360 --> 08:29:06,558
seen the gears of a massive economic
10046
08:29:03,520 --> 08:29:09,440
machine. But there is a final myth we
10047
08:29:06,558 --> 08:29:11,920
must dismantle. The idea that cities
10048
08:29:09,440 --> 08:29:14,318
like Amsterdam or Valencia look like
10049
08:29:11,920 --> 08:29:16,878
this because their citizens are simply
10050
08:29:14,318 --> 08:29:20,638
different. History tells a different
10051
08:29:16,878 --> 08:29:22,558
story. In the 1970s, Amsterdam was on
10052
08:29:20,638 --> 08:29:25,520
the verge of becoming another car
10053
08:29:22,558 --> 08:29:28,240
ccentric congested metropolis. The
10054
08:29:25,520 --> 08:29:31,120
transition we see today wasn't a natural
10055
08:29:28,240 --> 08:29:33,760
evolution of culture. It was a hostile
10056
08:29:31,120 --> 08:29:36,638
takeover of urban space by policy and
10057
08:29:33,760 --> 08:29:39,440
planning. When a city reaches a certain
10058
08:29:36,638 --> 08:29:42,318
density, freedom of choice in transport
10059
08:29:39,440 --> 08:29:45,840
becomes a mathematical impossibility.
10060
08:29:42,318 --> 08:29:48,318
If everyone chooses a car, no one moves.
10061
08:29:45,840 --> 08:29:51,280
In this highstakes environment, planning
10062
08:29:48,318 --> 08:29:54,000
is not an option. It is the only way to
10063
08:29:51,280 --> 08:29:58,240
survive. What is the ultimate harvest of
10064
08:29:54,000 --> 08:30:00,558
this planning? It is the 3% GDP boost we
10065
08:29:58,240 --> 08:30:02,798
mentioned at the start. But it's also
10066
08:30:00,558 --> 08:30:06,000
found in the margins,
10067
08:30:02,798 --> 08:30:07,920
the fiscal savings by avoiding the need
10068
08:30:06,000 --> 08:30:10,318
for multi-billion euro highway
10069
08:30:07,920 --> 08:30:13,360
expansions and massive health care costs
10070
08:30:10,318 --> 08:30:16,318
related to sedentary lifestyles.
10071
08:30:13,360 --> 08:30:18,638
The resilience factor by creating a
10072
08:30:16,318 --> 08:30:21,440
circular metropolis that can process its
10073
08:30:18,638 --> 08:30:23,440
own waste at the Kruu depot and turn it
10074
08:30:21,440 --> 08:30:26,558
back into capital.
10075
08:30:23,440 --> 08:30:28,718
The talent magnet in the global war for
10076
08:30:26,558 --> 08:30:32,000
talent. Highly skilled workers choose
10077
08:30:28,718 --> 08:30:34,318
cities based on livability. Amsterdam's
10078
08:30:32,000 --> 08:30:36,958
bicycle infrastructure is its most
10079
08:30:34,318 --> 08:30:38,718
effective recruitment tool. We started
10080
08:30:36,958 --> 08:30:42,000
this journey looking at a simple
10081
08:30:38,718 --> 08:30:44,558
machine, two wheels and a frame. But as
10082
08:30:42,000 --> 08:30:47,520
we've seen, the bicycle in Amsterdam is
10083
08:30:44,558 --> 08:30:50,160
much more than a transport mode. It is a
10084
08:30:47,520 --> 08:30:53,120
financial instrument. It is a spatial
10085
08:30:50,160 --> 08:30:56,080
optimizer. It is the invisible engine
10086
08:30:53,120 --> 08:31:00,080
that allows a medieval city to function
10087
08:30:56,080 --> 08:31:03,040
as a 21st century economic powerhouse.
10088
08:31:00,080 --> 08:31:05,440
The €85 million spent on underwater
10089
08:31:03,040 --> 08:31:08,478
tunnels, the complex logistics of the
10090
08:31:05,440 --> 08:31:11,680
Kruquest Depo, or the new Mediterranean
10091
08:31:08,478 --> 08:31:14,958
bike lanes are not costs. They are
10092
08:31:11,680 --> 08:31:17,520
investments in resilience.
10093
08:31:14,958 --> 08:31:19,760
In a world of rising energy prices and
10094
08:31:17,520 --> 08:31:22,718
shrinking urban space, the Amsterdam
10095
08:31:19,760 --> 08:31:24,878
model offers a glimpse into the future.
10096
08:31:22,718 --> 08:31:27,600
It proves that the most sophisticated
10097
08:31:24,878 --> 08:31:30,398
technology isn't always a new gadget.
10098
08:31:27,600 --> 08:31:33,680
Sometimes it's the perfect integration
10099
08:31:30,398 --> 08:31:36,680
of an old idea into a new circular
10100
08:31:33,680 --> 08:31:36,680
world.
10101
08:32:52,080 --> 08:32:55,920
imagine for a moment, what if your
10102
08:32:54,080 --> 08:32:57,920
Bitcoin holdings could purchase more
10103
08:32:55,920 --> 08:33:00,398
than just everyday items like coffee or
10104
08:32:57,920 --> 08:33:02,478
the latest gadgets? What if that digital
10105
08:33:00,398 --> 08:33:05,040
currency sitting in your wallet could
10106
08:33:02,478 --> 08:33:07,040
actually buy you a house or perhaps even
10107
08:33:05,040 --> 08:33:10,040
an entire commercial building? real
10108
08:33:07,040 --> 08:33:10,040
estate.
10109
08:33:14,798 --> 08:33:17,798
Bitcoin.
10110
08:33:19,680 --> 08:33:23,760
Welcome to the fascinating and rapidly
10111
08:33:21,680 --> 08:33:25,520
evolving world of crypto real estate,
10112
08:33:23,760 --> 08:33:30,120
where digital assets are being
10113
08:33:25,520 --> 08:33:30,120
transformed into tangible property.
10114
08:33:34,000 --> 08:33:37,200
Today, we're taking a deep dive into the
10115
08:33:36,000 --> 08:33:39,200
revolutionary intersection of
10116
08:33:37,200 --> 08:33:41,680
cryptocurrency and property ownership,
10117
08:33:39,200 --> 08:33:44,000
examining in detail how Bitcoin is
10118
08:33:41,680 --> 08:33:45,920
successfully transforming what were once
10119
08:33:44,000 --> 08:33:48,080
purely digital coins into tangible
10120
08:33:45,920 --> 08:33:49,680
physical real estate investments.
10121
08:33:48,080 --> 08:33:51,680
Whether you're an experienced crypto
10122
08:33:49,680 --> 08:33:53,600
investor looking to diversify your
10123
08:33:51,680 --> 08:33:55,200
portfolio or simply someone who's
10124
08:33:53,600 --> 08:33:57,440
curious about emerging trends in
10125
08:33:55,200 --> 08:33:59,360
property markets, this is an in-depth
10126
08:33:57,440 --> 08:34:00,958
look at how the landscape and future of
10127
08:33:59,360 --> 08:34:03,040
real estate transactions is
10128
08:34:00,958 --> 08:34:05,680
fundamentally evolving and changing
10129
08:34:03,040 --> 08:34:07,680
before our eyes.
10130
08:34:05,680 --> 08:34:09,600
The financial world is in constant
10131
08:34:07,680 --> 08:34:11,680
transformation, but in this decade,
10132
08:34:09,600 --> 08:34:15,040
digitalization has accelerated that
10133
08:34:11,680 --> 08:34:17,920
change faster than anyone imagined.
10134
08:34:15,040 --> 08:34:20,080
Today, money, investments, and assets
10135
08:34:17,920 --> 08:34:22,798
flow through codes silent, transparent,
10136
08:34:20,080 --> 08:34:25,600
and borderless. Cryptocurrencies led by
10137
08:34:22,798 --> 08:34:27,520
Bitcoin mark the beginning of a new era.
10138
08:34:25,600 --> 08:34:29,360
They shook the foundations of the global
10139
08:34:27,520 --> 08:34:32,160
financial system, sparking both
10140
08:34:29,360 --> 08:34:34,878
excitement and skepticism. Yet, behind
10141
08:34:32,160 --> 08:34:39,000
that phenomenon emerged something even
10142
08:34:34,878 --> 08:34:39,000
deeper. Tokenization.
10143
08:34:41,200 --> 08:34:44,200
Contraos.
10144
08:35:00,000 --> 08:35:03,558
Real world assets.
10145
08:35:23,680 --> 08:35:25,760
Moment.
10146
08:35:35,920 --> 08:35:39,920
tokenization brings. So it's the most
10147
08:35:37,440 --> 08:35:41,520
suitable, most modern ledger technology
10148
08:35:39,920 --> 08:35:42,240
uh ideal for modernizing capital
10149
08:35:41,520 --> 08:35:45,440
markets.
10150
08:35:42,240 --> 08:35:47,440
>> The idea is simple, the impact enormous.
10151
08:35:45,440 --> 08:35:50,080
Each token represents a fraction of an
10152
08:35:47,440 --> 08:35:52,080
asset, a share, a bond, a property, or
10153
08:35:50,080 --> 08:35:54,160
even a work of art. All recorded on a
10154
08:35:52,080 --> 08:35:57,160
blockchain, a global tamper proof
10155
08:35:54,160 --> 08:35:57,160
ledger.
10156
08:36:14,318 --> 08:36:17,718
Smart contracts.
10157
08:36:32,000 --> 08:36:35,920
We believe the next step going forward
10158
08:36:33,840 --> 08:36:39,600
will be the tokenization of financial
10159
08:36:35,920 --> 08:36:41,920
assets. And that means every stock,
10160
08:36:39,600 --> 08:36:44,718
every bond will have its own basically
10161
08:36:41,920 --> 08:36:47,120
QIP. It'll be on one general ledger.
10162
08:36:44,718 --> 08:36:49,600
>> In other words, a token isn't just an
10163
08:36:47,120 --> 08:36:52,000
asset. It's a digital entry in a new
10164
08:36:49,600 --> 08:36:54,318
kind of ledger that is rewriting how
10165
08:36:52,000 --> 08:36:56,558
capital markets keep their books.
10166
08:36:54,318 --> 08:36:58,080
Investment in tokenized real estates
10167
08:36:56,558 --> 08:37:00,318
represents one of the most recent
10168
08:36:58,080 --> 08:37:02,558
advancements in the property industry.
10169
08:37:00,318 --> 08:37:05,040
Tokenization enables houses and
10170
08:37:02,558 --> 08:37:09,080
apartments to be divided and sold and
10171
08:37:05,040 --> 08:37:09,080
numerous smaller units.
10172
08:37:18,318 --> 08:37:21,318
Fraction
10173
08:37:55,440 --> 08:37:59,760
small programs act like a bridge between
10174
08:37:57,280 --> 08:38:01,600
a property and online trading platform.
10175
08:37:59,760 --> 08:38:03,040
Hence, tokens create a digital
10176
08:38:01,600 --> 08:38:07,398
representation of a property,
10177
08:38:03,040 --> 08:38:07,398
facilitating its digital transfer.
10178
08:38:08,878 --> 08:38:12,798
The process of purchasing a property is
10179
08:38:11,040 --> 08:38:15,200
still associated with significant
10180
08:38:12,798 --> 08:38:17,600
bureaucracy, lengthy procedures, and
10181
08:38:15,200 --> 08:38:20,958
subsequent high costs.
10182
08:38:17,600 --> 08:38:23,360
So what exactly is crypto real estate?
10183
08:38:20,958 --> 08:38:25,600
At its core, the term refers to any real
10184
08:38:23,360 --> 08:38:28,478
estate transaction where cryptocurrency
10185
08:38:25,600 --> 08:38:30,958
plays a major role either as a direct
10186
08:38:28,478 --> 08:38:35,240
form of payment, a converted asset, or
10187
08:38:30,958 --> 08:38:35,240
collateral for purchasing property.
10188
08:38:38,160 --> 08:38:41,398
real estate,
10189
08:38:42,718 --> 08:38:45,718
Bitcoins.
10190
08:39:02,638 --> 08:39:06,840
Crypto reference loans.
10191
08:39:26,478 --> 08:39:31,440
But the concept goes even deeper than
10192
08:39:29,200 --> 08:39:33,360
that. Crypto real estate includes buying
10193
08:39:31,440 --> 08:39:35,520
a home directly with Bitcoin or other
10194
08:39:33,360 --> 08:39:38,558
cryptocurrencies, using stable coins
10195
08:39:35,520 --> 08:39:41,520
like USDT or USDC for a more stable
10196
08:39:38,558 --> 08:39:43,440
purchase, converting crypto into fiat at
10197
08:39:41,520 --> 08:39:44,958
closing, taking out loans backed by
10198
08:39:43,440 --> 08:39:46,638
cryptocurrency to purchase real
10199
08:39:44,958 --> 08:39:48,638
property, tokenized real estate where
10200
08:39:46,638 --> 08:39:50,240
ownership is fractionalized into digital
10201
08:39:48,638 --> 08:39:51,920
token, blockchain based property
10202
08:39:50,240 --> 08:39:54,920
records, and smart contract driven
10203
08:39:51,920 --> 08:39:54,920
transactions.
10204
08:40:07,040 --> 08:40:10,440
Stable coins,
10205
08:40:23,680 --> 08:40:27,080
stable coins.
10206
08:40:35,840 --> 08:40:41,318
EMT E A R T
10207
08:40:50,558 --> 08:40:53,280
USDT
10208
08:40:57,360 --> 08:41:00,360
USDC.
10209
08:41:12,878 --> 08:41:15,878
US
10210
08:41:20,160 --> 08:41:23,638
stable coinry.
10211
08:41:56,798 --> 08:41:59,798
Fiat
10212
08:42:00,558 --> 08:42:03,558
laser.
10213
08:42:06,798 --> 08:42:09,798
coins.
10214
08:42:15,920 --> 08:42:20,958
It's an evolution in how value moves
10215
08:42:18,080 --> 08:42:22,718
around the world and for the first time
10216
08:42:20,958 --> 08:42:26,840
digital wealth is becoming a direct
10217
08:42:22,718 --> 08:42:26,840
pathway to physical ownership.
10218
08:42:28,478 --> 08:42:32,240
To understand how we arrived at this
10219
08:42:30,398 --> 08:42:34,798
moment, we need to step back and look at
10220
08:42:32,240 --> 08:42:36,878
the timeline. Bitcoin launched in 2009
10221
08:42:34,798 --> 08:42:38,798
as a peer-to-peer digital alternative to
10222
08:42:36,878 --> 08:42:40,558
money. In its early years, the idea of
10223
08:42:38,798 --> 08:42:42,958
using Bitcoin to buy real estate was
10224
08:42:40,558 --> 08:42:45,200
laughable. But Bitcoin grew, first
10225
08:42:42,958 --> 08:42:47,680
crossing $1, then a hundred, then a
10226
08:42:45,200 --> 08:42:50,318
thousand, then tens of thousands. A new
10227
08:42:47,680 --> 08:42:52,318
wave of wealth was created. Suddenly,
10228
08:42:50,318 --> 08:42:54,478
early adopters who once bought pizza
10229
08:42:52,318 --> 08:42:57,520
with Bitcoin now had enough digital
10230
08:42:54,478 --> 08:42:59,840
value to buy entire homes, and sellers
10231
08:42:57,520 --> 08:43:01,840
began paying attention. The first public
10232
08:42:59,840 --> 08:43:05,040
record of a property purchased fully in
10233
08:43:01,840 --> 08:43:07,200
Bitcoin dates back to 2017. From there,
10234
08:43:05,040 --> 08:43:09,760
the trend spread to luxury markets,
10235
08:43:07,200 --> 08:43:12,080
Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Dubai, and
10236
08:43:09,760 --> 08:43:13,920
London. Developers began marketing
10237
08:43:12,080 --> 08:43:16,718
properties specifically to crypto
10238
08:43:13,920 --> 08:43:19,520
buyers. Brokers started specializing in
10239
08:43:16,718 --> 08:43:21,040
crypto transactions. Escrow companies
10240
08:43:19,520 --> 08:43:22,878
adapted.
10241
08:43:21,040 --> 08:43:26,240
Even governments began studying
10242
08:43:22,878 --> 08:43:28,718
blockchainbased property registries.
10243
08:43:26,240 --> 08:43:31,200
Buying real estate with Bitcoin isn't
10244
08:43:28,718 --> 08:43:33,200
science fiction. Some sellers now accept
10245
08:43:31,200 --> 08:43:35,120
crypto directly, while others work
10246
08:43:33,200 --> 08:43:38,318
through brokers who convert Bitcoin into
10247
08:43:35,120 --> 08:43:40,478
local currency. The process is faster,
10248
08:43:38,318 --> 08:43:42,798
borderless, and sometimes even tax
10249
08:43:40,478 --> 08:43:45,200
efficient if you know the rules. Things
10250
08:43:42,798 --> 08:43:48,558
that sounded impossible in 2010 became
10251
08:43:45,200 --> 08:43:50,878
normal by 2020. And now in the 2020s,
10252
08:43:48,558 --> 08:43:53,280
cryptocurrency is becoming a serious
10253
08:43:50,878 --> 08:43:55,200
player in global real estate. The crypto
10254
08:43:53,280 --> 08:43:57,440
boom has created a new class of
10255
08:43:55,200 --> 08:44:00,000
investors. High- netw worth individuals
10256
08:43:57,440 --> 08:44:02,638
want to diversify, and real estate is a
10257
08:44:00,000 --> 08:44:05,440
safe, tangible asset. From luxury homes
10258
08:44:02,638 --> 08:44:07,840
in Miami to condos in Dubai, Bitcoin
10259
08:44:05,440 --> 08:44:09,760
buyers are making their mark. Let's look
10260
08:44:07,840 --> 08:44:11,600
at a few real world examples to
10261
08:44:09,760 --> 08:44:15,280
understand how crypto real estate works
10262
08:44:11,600 --> 08:44:17,760
in practice. Case study one. In 2021, a
10263
08:44:15,280 --> 08:44:20,240
luxury penthouse at Artee by Antonio
10264
08:44:17,760 --> 08:44:23,680
Satario in Surfside, Florida made
10265
08:44:20,240 --> 08:44:26,718
history. The property sold for 22.5
10266
08:44:23,680 --> 08:44:28,718
million paid entirely in cryptocurrency.
10267
08:44:26,718 --> 08:44:30,958
The largest publicly known real estate
10268
08:44:28,718 --> 08:44:33,200
transaction completed using digital
10269
08:44:30,958 --> 08:44:35,200
assets at the time. A developer's
10270
08:44:33,200 --> 08:44:37,760
decision to accept cryptocurrency had
10271
08:44:35,200 --> 08:44:39,680
paid off. The sale came just weeks after
10272
08:44:37,760 --> 08:44:41,520
the developer announced it would begin
10273
08:44:39,680 --> 08:44:43,040
accepting cryptocurrency payments
10274
08:44:41,520 --> 08:44:44,958
through a partnership with blockchain
10275
08:44:43,040 --> 08:44:46,798
platform Solid Block. According to
10276
08:44:44,958 --> 08:44:49,040
Forbes, the deal demonstrated that
10277
08:44:46,798 --> 08:44:51,840
crypto was no longer just a speculative
10278
08:44:49,040 --> 08:44:54,398
asset. It had become a viable method for
10279
08:44:51,840 --> 08:44:57,120
purchasing high-end real estate. Hey
10280
08:44:54,398 --> 08:44:59,440
Study 2 in Dubai, one of the earliest
10281
08:44:57,120 --> 08:45:01,920
large-scale experiments with crypto real
10282
08:44:59,440 --> 08:45:04,240
estate unfolded at Aston Plaza and
10283
08:45:01,920 --> 08:45:06,958
Residences located in Dubai Science
10284
08:45:04,240 --> 08:45:08,638
Park. Marketed as one of the first major
10285
08:45:06,958 --> 08:45:11,200
developments in the region to accept
10286
08:45:08,638 --> 08:45:13,840
Bitcoin, the project offered apartments
10287
08:45:11,200 --> 08:45:15,840
priced directly in cryptocurrency,
10288
08:45:13,840 --> 08:45:18,558
buyers were able to commit funds using
10289
08:45:15,840 --> 08:45:20,478
Bitcoin, capturing global attention. But
10290
08:45:18,558 --> 08:45:23,360
the story also revealed the risks of
10291
08:45:20,478 --> 08:45:26,878
innovation. Originally advertised as a
10292
08:45:23,360 --> 08:45:29,040
$325 million development, the project
10293
08:45:26,878 --> 08:45:31,440
later stalled and its completion became
10294
08:45:29,040 --> 08:45:34,318
uncertain. While crypto payments were
10295
08:45:31,440 --> 08:45:36,478
accepted, it remains unclear whether all
10296
08:45:34,318 --> 08:45:38,798
buyers ultimately received finished
10297
08:45:36,478 --> 08:45:41,360
properties. The case highlighted both
10298
08:45:38,798 --> 08:45:44,160
the promise and the pitfalls of early
10299
08:45:41,360 --> 08:45:47,520
crypto adoption real estate. Case study
10300
08:45:44,160 --> 08:45:49,440
3. In 2025, Spain recorded one of its
10301
08:45:47,520 --> 08:45:52,000
first officially reported property sales
10302
08:45:49,440 --> 08:45:54,718
completed with Bitcoin. A property in
10303
08:45:52,000 --> 08:45:56,638
Madrid valued at approximately 1.5
10304
08:45:54,718 --> 08:45:58,878
million of euros was purchased by an
10305
08:45:56,638 --> 08:46:00,798
international buyer using Bitcoin. The
10306
08:45:58,878 --> 08:46:03,840
transaction followed standard real
10307
08:46:00,798 --> 08:46:06,240
estate procedures including escrow legal
10308
08:46:03,840 --> 08:46:08,638
compliance and the conversion of crypto
10309
08:46:06,240 --> 08:46:10,398
into euros for the seller. It marked a
10310
08:46:08,638 --> 08:46:12,080
significant milestone showing that
10311
08:46:10,398 --> 08:46:14,398
cryptocurrency could integrate into
10312
08:46:12,080 --> 08:46:16,958
traditional real estate systems even in
10313
08:46:14,398 --> 08:46:19,600
highly regulated European markets. Case
10314
08:46:16,958 --> 08:46:22,160
study four in the United States crypto
10315
08:46:19,600 --> 08:46:24,718
adoption hasn't been limited to coastal
10316
08:46:22,160 --> 08:46:27,120
tech hubs. An agent with Sabis
10317
08:46:24,718 --> 08:46:29,920
International Realy in Delaware reported
10318
08:46:27,120 --> 08:46:32,798
selling a luxury property for $175
10319
08:46:29,920 --> 08:46:34,798
million paid in Bitcoin. Believed to be
10320
08:46:32,798 --> 08:46:36,558
one of the state's first major real
10321
08:46:34,798 --> 08:46:38,798
estate transactions involving
10322
08:46:36,558 --> 08:46:40,798
cryptocurrency, the sale was widely
10323
08:46:38,798 --> 08:46:42,798
publicized as a local milestone,
10324
08:46:40,798 --> 08:46:44,798
signaling that crypto real estate was
10325
08:46:42,798 --> 08:46:49,478
beginning to reach beyond niche markets
10326
08:46:44,798 --> 08:46:49,478
and into everyday property transactions.
10327
08:46:50,240 --> 08:46:53,638
Genius Act.
10328
08:47:05,680 --> 08:47:09,718
different stable coins.
10329
08:47:48,160 --> 08:47:51,478
Maximum. foro.
10330
08:48:41,120 --> 08:48:45,680
Taken together, these cases tell a
10331
08:48:43,120 --> 08:48:47,920
larger story, one of experimentation,
10332
08:48:45,680 --> 08:48:50,240
success, setbacks, and growing
10333
08:48:47,920 --> 08:48:52,478
legitimacy. Crypto real estate is no
10334
08:48:50,240 --> 08:48:54,638
longer hypothetical. It's happening
10335
08:48:52,478 --> 08:48:58,478
transaction by transaction across the
10336
08:48:54,638 --> 08:49:00,318
globe. But it's not all smooth sailing.
10337
08:48:58,478 --> 08:49:02,718
Crypto's value can be volatile.
10338
08:49:00,318 --> 08:49:05,200
Regulations vary by country, and tax
10339
08:49:02,718 --> 08:49:07,520
implications can be tricky. First,
10340
08:49:05,200 --> 08:49:09,680
volatility. Bitcoin and other
10341
08:49:07,520 --> 08:49:11,440
cryptocurrencies can move dramatically,
10342
08:49:09,680 --> 08:49:13,360
sometimes losing or gaining a third of
10343
08:49:11,440 --> 08:49:15,680
their value in weeks. For buyers who
10344
08:49:13,360 --> 08:49:19,040
convert at closing, rapid swings can
10345
08:49:15,680 --> 08:49:22,240
erase gains or spike costs in hours.
10346
08:49:19,040 --> 08:49:24,318
Second, transaction mechanics and title.
10347
08:49:22,240 --> 08:49:26,318
Even when a seller accepts crypto, most
10348
08:49:24,318 --> 08:49:27,840
governments and land registries require
10349
08:49:26,318 --> 08:49:30,160
deeds to be issued in the local
10350
08:49:27,840 --> 08:49:32,398
currency. That usually means an
10351
08:49:30,160 --> 08:49:34,318
intermediary converts crypto to fiat
10352
08:49:32,398 --> 08:49:36,478
before the legal title is registered,
10353
08:49:34,318 --> 08:49:38,240
adding counterparty risk and an extra
10354
08:49:36,478 --> 08:49:41,120
step that can delay and complicate
10355
08:49:38,240 --> 08:49:42,798
settlements. Third, taxes. In many
10356
08:49:41,120 --> 08:49:44,958
jurisdictions, authorities treat crypto
10357
08:49:42,798 --> 08:49:46,798
as property, not currency, which makes
10358
08:49:44,958 --> 08:49:49,120
nearly every transfer a taxable event.
10359
08:49:46,798 --> 08:49:51,280
That includes sales, exchanges, and
10360
08:49:49,120 --> 08:49:53,520
sometimes even payments for goods or
10361
08:49:51,280 --> 08:49:55,760
services. Buyers and sellers must track
10362
08:49:53,520 --> 08:49:57,920
cost basis, gains, and report the
10363
08:49:55,760 --> 08:50:00,478
transactions accurately or face audits
10364
08:49:57,920 --> 08:50:02,318
and penalties. Fourth, lending and
10365
08:50:00,478 --> 08:50:03,920
counterparty risk. Cryptoback lending
10366
08:50:02,318 --> 08:50:05,840
exploded in the previous market cycle,
10367
08:50:03,920 --> 08:50:08,000
but it ended with high-profile collapses
10368
08:50:05,840 --> 08:50:09,920
and bankruptcies. When platforms fail,
10369
08:50:08,000 --> 08:50:11,840
borrowers and depositors can lose access
10370
08:50:09,920 --> 08:50:13,440
to funds. Collateral can be liquidated
10371
08:50:11,840 --> 08:50:15,280
at a loss and promise liquidity
10372
08:50:13,440 --> 08:50:17,200
disappears, a danger for anyone relying
10373
08:50:15,280 --> 08:50:19,360
on thirdparty services to bridge crypto
10374
08:50:17,200 --> 08:50:20,638
and property purchases.
10375
08:50:19,360 --> 08:50:23,200
Fifth, compliance and
10376
08:50:20,638 --> 08:50:24,878
anti-moneyaundering rules. Regulators
10377
08:50:23,200 --> 08:50:26,718
and global bodies have tightened rules
10378
08:50:24,878 --> 08:50:28,958
around virtual assets to prevent illicit
10379
08:50:26,718 --> 08:50:31,360
flows. Real estate transactions are high
10380
08:50:28,958 --> 08:50:33,040
on that list, meaning additional KYC,
10381
08:50:31,360 --> 08:50:35,120
source of fund checks, and reporting
10382
08:50:33,040 --> 08:50:36,958
requirements. Failure to meet these
10383
08:50:35,120 --> 08:50:39,280
standards can stall a sale, trigger
10384
08:50:36,958 --> 08:50:42,398
investigations, or expose participants
10385
08:50:39,280 --> 08:50:44,638
to legal liability. Sixth, operational
10386
08:50:42,398 --> 08:50:46,478
and technical risk. Crypto transactions
10387
08:50:44,638 --> 08:50:48,080
are irreversible. A single wrong
10388
08:50:46,478 --> 08:50:49,680
character in a wallet address or a
10389
08:50:48,080 --> 08:50:51,440
fishing attack on an email with wiring
10390
08:50:49,680 --> 08:50:52,878
instructions can send millions to the
10391
08:50:51,440 --> 08:50:54,718
wrong place, and there's no bank to
10392
08:50:52,878 --> 08:50:56,638
reverse the transfer. Seventh,
10393
08:50:54,718 --> 08:50:58,638
technology risk, smart contracts,
10394
08:50:56,638 --> 08:51:00,558
tokenization, and new platforms bring
10395
08:50:58,638 --> 08:51:02,318
innovation, but also software bugs and
10396
08:51:00,558 --> 08:51:04,478
design flaws. A poorly written smart
10397
08:51:02,318 --> 08:51:06,798
contract or an unodudited tokenization
10398
08:51:04,478 --> 08:51:09,600
platform can freeze assets, misallocate
10399
08:51:06,798 --> 08:51:12,160
ownership shares or enable exploits.
10400
08:51:09,600 --> 08:51:13,840
Finally, market and reputational risk.
10401
08:51:12,160 --> 08:51:15,520
Developers and brokers who accept crypto
10402
08:51:13,840 --> 08:51:17,360
can attract new buyers, but they also
10403
08:51:15,520 --> 08:51:19,120
take on greater scrutiny, regulatory
10404
08:51:17,360 --> 08:51:20,878
compliance burdens, and the risk that
10405
08:51:19,120 --> 08:51:23,120
projects promoted with crypto funding
10406
08:51:20,878 --> 08:51:26,160
may underdel, stall, or become entangled
10407
08:51:23,120 --> 08:51:28,478
in legal disputes. In short, crypto can
10408
08:51:26,160 --> 08:51:31,040
speed and globalize property deals, but
10409
08:51:28,478 --> 08:51:33,680
it also layers on volatility, regulatory
10410
08:51:31,040 --> 08:51:35,760
complexity, and new failure modes. For
10411
08:51:33,680 --> 08:51:38,080
buyers, sellers, and advisers, the
10412
08:51:35,760 --> 08:51:39,920
lesson is clear. Proceed with rigorous
10413
08:51:38,080 --> 08:51:42,478
legal counsel, hardened custody
10414
08:51:39,920 --> 08:51:44,478
practices, and transparent compliance.
10415
08:51:42,478 --> 08:51:47,478
The opportunity is real, but so are the
10416
08:51:44,478 --> 08:51:47,478
pitfalls.
10417
08:52:06,160 --> 08:52:11,200
Still, the opportunities are huge. A new
10418
08:52:09,120 --> 08:52:13,600
generation of buyers is turning digital
10419
08:52:11,200 --> 08:52:16,478
value into physical assets. For many,
10420
08:52:13,600 --> 08:52:18,798
Bitcoin isn't just a currency. It's a
10421
08:52:16,478 --> 08:52:20,080
gateway to ownership.
10422
08:52:18,798 --> 08:52:22,318
One of the biggest shifts is
10423
08:52:20,080 --> 08:52:24,478
tokenization. Instead of buying an
10424
08:52:22,318 --> 08:52:26,398
entire building, investors can now
10425
08:52:24,478 --> 08:52:28,958
purchase fractional ownership through
10426
08:52:26,398 --> 08:52:30,638
blockchainbased tokens. This lowers the
10427
08:52:28,958 --> 08:52:32,638
barrier to entry, allowing smaller
10428
08:52:30,638 --> 08:52:34,478
investors to access real estate markets
10429
08:52:32,638 --> 08:52:38,120
that were once reserved for institutions
10430
08:52:34,478 --> 08:52:38,120
and the ultra wealthy.
10431
08:52:54,718 --> 08:52:56,878
Fraction.
10432
08:53:22,718 --> 08:53:27,600
Tokenization also brings liquidity to an
10433
08:53:25,600 --> 08:53:30,000
industry that has traditionally been
10434
08:53:27,600 --> 08:53:32,398
slow and illquid. Real estate
10435
08:53:30,000 --> 08:53:34,558
transactions can take months. Tokenized
10436
08:53:32,398 --> 08:53:37,280
shares can potentially be transferred in
10437
08:53:34,558 --> 08:53:39,520
minutes. Crypto is also reshaping
10438
08:53:37,280 --> 08:53:41,680
crossber real estate. International
10439
08:53:39,520 --> 08:53:44,478
buyers often face currency controls,
10440
08:53:41,680 --> 08:53:46,478
wire delays, and banking restrictions.
10441
08:53:44,478 --> 08:53:48,398
Cryptocurrency allows capital to move
10442
08:53:46,478 --> 08:53:50,160
globally with fewer friction points,
10443
08:53:48,398 --> 08:53:52,240
opening markets to buyers who were
10444
08:53:50,160 --> 08:53:53,920
previously locked out. As a result,
10445
08:53:52,240 --> 08:53:55,520
cities that embrace crypto-friendly
10446
08:53:53,920 --> 08:53:57,360
regulations are attracting global
10447
08:53:55,520 --> 08:53:58,878
capital faster. Developers are
10448
08:53:57,360 --> 08:54:00,718
responding by marketing properties
10449
08:53:58,878 --> 08:54:03,280
directly to crypto holders, not as a
10450
08:54:00,718 --> 08:54:05,120
novelty, but as a strategy. Governments
10451
08:54:03,280 --> 08:54:07,120
are also exploring blockchain for land
10452
08:54:05,120 --> 08:54:09,200
registries and property records.
10453
08:54:07,120 --> 08:54:11,120
Immutable ledgers can reduce disputes,
10454
08:54:09,200 --> 08:54:13,520
prevent title fraud, and provide
10455
08:54:11,120 --> 08:54:15,040
permanent verifiable ownership history,
10456
08:54:13,520 --> 08:54:17,280
especially in regions where property
10457
08:54:15,040 --> 08:54:19,120
rights are difficult to enforce. This
10458
08:54:17,280 --> 08:54:21,040
isn't a complete replacement of
10459
08:54:19,120 --> 08:54:23,360
traditional real estate. It's a
10460
08:54:21,040 --> 08:54:25,760
transformation. Crypto doesn't eliminate
10461
08:54:23,360 --> 08:54:27,520
the fundamentals. Location, demand, and
10462
08:54:25,760 --> 08:54:29,360
due diligence still matter. But it
10463
08:54:27,520 --> 08:54:31,520
changes how value moves, how quickly
10464
08:54:29,360 --> 08:54:33,520
deals happen, and who gets access. So,
10465
08:54:31,520 --> 08:54:35,680
what does all of this mean for you as an
10466
08:54:33,520 --> 08:54:37,360
investor or future home buyer? It means
10467
08:54:35,680 --> 08:54:39,280
new opportunities are emerging.
10468
08:54:37,360 --> 08:54:41,600
Opportunities to leverage your crypto
10469
08:54:39,280 --> 08:54:44,240
holdings, opportunities to participate
10470
08:54:41,600 --> 08:54:46,638
in international markets more easily,
10471
08:54:44,240 --> 08:54:50,120
opportunities to acquire property faster
10472
08:54:46,638 --> 08:54:50,120
and more efficiently.
10473
08:54:55,600 --> 08:54:58,760
real estate.
10474
08:55:11,520 --> 08:55:14,520
Fore
10475
08:55:40,398 --> 08:55:42,798
real estate.
10476
08:55:51,760 --> 08:55:54,080
or
10477
08:56:20,398 --> 08:56:23,558
real estate.
10478
08:56:29,680 --> 08:56:34,958
But like any emerging space, education
10479
08:56:32,638 --> 08:56:37,520
is key. Working with crypto-friendly
10480
08:56:34,958 --> 08:56:39,600
agents, attorneys, and escrow companies
10481
08:56:37,520 --> 08:56:41,680
is essential.
10482
08:56:39,600 --> 08:56:43,360
Understanding your local regulations is
10483
08:56:41,680 --> 08:56:45,120
crucial, and ensuring the security of
10484
08:56:43,360 --> 08:56:48,120
your crypto wallet is absolutely
10485
08:56:45,120 --> 08:56:48,120
non-negotiable.
10486
08:56:59,760 --> 08:57:03,718
sophistic.
10487
08:57:00,718 --> 08:57:03,718
for
10488
08:57:29,280 --> 08:57:33,160
the experenc.
10489
08:58:01,120 --> 08:58:04,120
Fundamentas
10490
08:58:29,120 --> 08:58:31,280
physical.
10491
08:58:51,920 --> 08:58:56,398
The cryptocurrency market has entered
10492
08:58:53,920 --> 08:58:59,280
the opening days of 2026 with renewed
10493
08:58:56,398 --> 08:59:01,680
momentum after a volatile end to 2025.
10494
08:58:59,280 --> 08:59:03,200
5. Prices across major digital assets
10495
08:59:01,680 --> 08:59:05,200
have moved sharply higher, drawing
10496
08:59:03,200 --> 08:59:07,520
attention from both retail traders and
10497
08:59:05,200 --> 08:59:09,760
institutional investors. In early
10498
08:59:07,520 --> 08:59:12,160
January, the total cryptocurrency market
10499
08:59:09,760 --> 08:59:14,558
capitalization climbed to around $3.2
10500
08:59:12,160 --> 08:59:16,558
trillion, according to aggregated data
10501
08:59:14,558 --> 08:59:18,240
from major market trackers. This
10502
08:59:16,558 --> 08:59:20,798
represents a meaningful rebound from
10503
08:59:18,240 --> 08:59:22,558
late 2025 levels with the market adding
10504
08:59:20,798 --> 08:59:24,478
hundreds of billions of dollars in value
10505
08:59:22,558 --> 08:59:26,398
over a relatively short period. While
10506
08:59:24,478 --> 08:59:27,920
exact figures vary, the direction is
10507
08:59:26,398 --> 08:59:29,520
clear. Capital has returned to the
10508
08:59:27,920 --> 08:59:31,360
crypto market at the start of the year.
10509
08:59:29,520 --> 08:59:33,840
At the center of this move is Bitcoin,
10510
08:59:31,360 --> 08:59:36,160
which rallied toward the $93,000 level
10511
08:59:33,840 --> 08:59:38,160
in the first week of January. As the
10512
08:59:36,160 --> 08:59:40,398
largest and most influential digital
10513
08:59:38,160 --> 08:59:42,000
asset, Bitcoin continues to act as the
10514
08:59:40,398 --> 08:59:43,360
market's primary anchor, and its
10515
08:59:42,000 --> 08:59:45,520
strength has helped lift sentiment
10516
08:59:43,360 --> 08:59:47,840
across the broader ecosystem.
10517
08:59:45,520 --> 08:59:50,240
Historically, strong Bitcoin performance
10518
08:59:47,840 --> 08:59:51,600
has often preceded periods of increased
10519
08:59:50,240 --> 08:59:54,478
activity in alternative
10520
08:59:51,600 --> 08:59:56,398
cryptocurrencies, and early 2026 appears
10521
08:59:54,478 --> 08:59:58,080
to be following a similar pattern.
10522
08:59:56,398 --> 08:59:59,680
Another key factor has been renewed
10523
08:59:58,080 --> 09:00:01,360
institutional participation,
10524
08:59:59,680 --> 09:00:04,000
particularly through spot Bitcoin and
10525
09:00:01,360 --> 09:00:06,398
Ethereum exchange traded funds. Reports
10526
09:00:04,000 --> 09:00:08,080
from early January indicate notable ETF
10527
09:00:06,398 --> 09:00:09,920
inflows, suggesting that traditional
10528
09:00:08,080 --> 09:00:12,000
investors are once again increasing
10529
09:00:09,920 --> 09:00:13,680
exposure to digital assets. The current
10530
09:00:12,000 --> 09:00:15,600
momentum appears to be driven by a
10531
09:00:13,680 --> 09:00:18,558
combination of factors, including
10532
09:00:15,600 --> 09:00:21,360
Bitcoin's price recovery, increased ETF
10533
09:00:18,558 --> 09:00:22,878
inflows, improved global risk sentiment,
10534
09:00:21,360 --> 09:00:25,280
expectations of more supportive
10535
09:00:22,878 --> 09:00:27,760
regulatory and macroeconomic conditions.
10536
09:00:25,280 --> 09:00:29,520
As 2026 begins, the cryptocurrency
10537
09:00:27,760 --> 09:00:31,760
market finds itself at a familiar
10538
09:00:29,520 --> 09:00:33,440
crossroads. Renewed optimism balanced
10539
09:00:31,760 --> 09:00:35,040
against persistent uncertainty. Whether
10540
09:00:33,440 --> 09:00:36,878
this earlier strength marks the
10541
09:00:35,040 --> 09:00:38,558
beginning of a sustained trend or simply
10542
09:00:36,878 --> 09:00:40,558
another chapter in crypto's cyclical
10543
09:00:38,558 --> 09:00:43,680
nature is a question that only time will
10544
09:00:40,558 --> 09:00:46,398
answer. For now, the message from the
10545
09:00:43,680 --> 09:00:48,398
market is clear. Crypto is once again
10546
09:00:46,398 --> 09:00:50,080
commanding attention. If you approach
10547
09:00:48,398 --> 09:00:52,160
crypto real estate with knowledge and
10548
09:00:50,080 --> 09:00:54,958
preparation, the rewards can be
10549
09:00:52,160 --> 09:00:57,840
extraordinary. Bitcoin the bricks isn't
10550
09:00:54,958 --> 09:01:00,160
just a catchy phrase. It's the future of
10551
09:00:57,840 --> 09:01:02,478
real estate investment. If you want to
10552
09:01:00,160 --> 09:01:04,958
stay ahead of the curve, now's the time
10553
09:01:02,478 --> 09:01:07,958
to learn how crypto can open doors.
10554
09:01:04,958 --> 09:01:07,958
Literally.
10555
09:01:18,638 --> 09:01:21,638
Explorer
10556
09:01:31,280 --> 09:01:33,680
Transparenc.
10557
09:01:38,240 --> 09:01:41,240
control.
10558
09:02:04,958 --> 09:02:08,798
From digital coins to physical assets,
10559
09:02:07,120 --> 09:02:10,878
from online wallets to real world
10560
09:02:08,798 --> 09:02:12,958
property lines, cryptocurrency is
10561
09:02:10,878 --> 09:02:15,440
reshaping how we buy, sell, and think
10562
09:02:12,958 --> 09:02:17,760
about real estate. We are witnessing the
10563
09:02:15,440 --> 09:02:19,520
merging of two worlds. The oldest asset
10564
09:02:17,760 --> 09:02:21,760
on earth and one of the newest
10565
09:02:19,520 --> 09:02:24,558
technological inventions of our time.
10566
09:02:21,760 --> 09:02:27,040
And as the future unfolds, only one
10567
09:02:24,558 --> 09:02:30,360
question remain. Will Bitcoin buy your
10568
09:02:27,040 --> 09:02:30,360
next home?
10569
09:03:53,520 --> 09:03:58,878
September 2008.
10570
09:03:56,398 --> 09:04:01,600
The global financial system is on the
10571
09:03:58,878 --> 09:04:04,558
verge of a total blackout. Layman
10572
09:04:01,600 --> 09:04:08,318
Brothers has vanished. Meil Lynch is
10573
09:04:04,558 --> 09:04:10,318
gone. AIG is hemorrhaging billions every
10574
09:04:08,318 --> 09:04:12,638
hour.
10575
09:04:10,318 --> 09:04:14,558
In Washington, the halls of the Treasury
10576
09:04:12,638 --> 09:04:17,840
are filled with the smartest minds in
10577
09:04:14,558 --> 09:04:20,718
the country. But they have a problem.
10578
09:04:17,840 --> 09:04:23,680
They are staring at a black box of toxic
10579
09:04:20,718 --> 09:04:26,718
debt worth trillions and no tools to
10580
09:04:23,680 --> 09:04:29,760
open it. There is only one person who
10581
09:04:26,718 --> 09:04:32,240
has the map. One person who spent the
10582
09:04:29,760 --> 09:04:34,478
last 20 years building a digital
10583
09:04:32,240 --> 09:04:37,200
unblinking eye that can see through the
10584
09:04:34,478 --> 09:04:39,680
wreckage. The government didn't call the
10585
09:04:37,200 --> 09:04:42,398
big banks to save the world. They needed
10586
09:04:39,680 --> 09:04:44,318
someone to handle the toxic waste. And
10587
09:04:42,398 --> 09:04:46,398
there was only one man that could lead
10588
09:04:44,318 --> 09:04:50,840
through that darkness.
10589
09:04:46,398 --> 09:04:50,840
They called Larry Frink.
10590
09:04:52,240 --> 09:04:57,878
Larry Frink, the man behind Black Rock.
10591
09:04:58,638 --> 09:05:05,120
Today, he manages more money than the
10592
09:05:00,798 --> 09:05:07,360
GDP of almost every nation on Earth, $14
10593
09:05:05,120 --> 09:05:09,360
trillion.
10594
09:05:07,360 --> 09:05:11,760
But before he was the shadow sovereign
10595
09:05:09,360 --> 09:05:13,360
of Wall Street, he was a man who lost
10596
09:05:11,760 --> 09:05:17,440
everything.
10597
09:05:13,360 --> 09:05:19,600
Who is Larry Frink? Lawrence D.Fin, also
10598
09:05:17,440 --> 09:05:22,240
known as Larry Frink, is one of the
10599
09:05:19,600 --> 09:05:25,600
co-founders of Black Rockck. He is also
10600
09:05:22,240 --> 09:05:27,600
the chairman and CEO of the company, the
10601
09:05:25,600 --> 09:05:30,878
largest money management firm in the
10602
09:05:27,600 --> 09:05:32,558
world. It's the first time in history a
10603
09:05:30,878 --> 09:05:35,200
company manages to reach such a
10604
09:05:32,558 --> 09:05:38,240
milestone and gives a clear picture of
10605
09:05:35,200 --> 09:05:40,878
how Black Rockck operates. Not just a
10606
09:05:38,240 --> 09:05:43,280
traditional investment bank, but as a
10607
09:05:40,878 --> 09:05:45,920
central pillar of the global financial
10608
09:05:43,280 --> 09:05:48,160
infrastructure, where its sheer scale
10609
09:05:45,920 --> 09:05:50,080
allows it to influence economies and
10610
09:05:48,160 --> 09:05:54,398
industries at a level previously
10611
09:05:50,080 --> 09:05:57,280
reserved only for nation states.
10612
09:05:54,398 --> 09:06:00,160
Founded in 1988 as an investment firm
10613
09:05:57,280 --> 09:06:04,318
that prioritized risk management with
10614
09:06:00,160 --> 09:06:07,600
11.5 to 14 trillion under management,
10615
09:06:04,318 --> 09:06:09,840
Black Rockck's influence is staggering.
10616
09:06:07,600 --> 09:06:14,000
Black Rockck is a top three shareholder
10617
09:06:09,840 --> 09:06:17,122
in nearly every company in the S&P 500.
10618
09:06:14,000 --> 09:06:20,000
From Apple to Exxon, from Microsoft to
10619
09:06:17,122 --> 09:06:23,758
Nestle. They don't just invest in the
10620
09:06:20,000 --> 09:06:26,718
market, they are the market.
10621
09:06:23,758 --> 09:06:29,278
But its reach is personal. It holds the
10622
09:06:26,718 --> 09:06:32,398
retirement dreams of over 35 million
10623
09:06:29,278 --> 09:06:34,960
Americans. This is the story of how a
10624
09:06:32,398 --> 09:06:38,558
kid from a California shoe store became
10625
09:06:34,960 --> 09:06:42,078
the custodian of the world's wealth. But
10626
09:06:38,558 --> 09:06:44,640
who is Larry Frink? Lawrence Douglas
10627
09:06:42,078 --> 09:06:47,122
Frink entered the world on November the
10628
09:06:44,640 --> 09:06:49,918
2nd, 1952.
10629
09:06:47,122 --> 09:06:51,840
Born in Los Angeles, California, he was
10630
09:06:49,918 --> 09:06:53,840
raised in a Jewish family in the heart
10631
09:06:51,840 --> 09:06:56,160
of San Fernando Valley, the
10632
09:06:53,840 --> 09:06:58,398
quintessential American suburb of
10633
09:06:56,160 --> 09:07:00,558
Vanois.
10634
09:06:58,398 --> 09:07:03,520
His home was a balance of academic
10635
09:07:00,558 --> 09:07:05,598
discipline and retail grit. His mother,
10636
09:07:03,520 --> 09:07:07,438
Leela, was an English professor who
10637
09:07:05,598 --> 09:07:09,040
valued the power of language and
10638
09:07:07,438 --> 09:07:10,960
education.
10639
09:07:09,040 --> 09:07:13,278
And long before he pulled the strings of
10640
09:07:10,960 --> 09:07:15,360
the global economy, Larry Frink was
10641
09:07:13,278 --> 09:07:17,040
learning the value of money on a much
10642
09:07:15,360 --> 09:07:19,918
smaller scale.
10643
09:07:17,040 --> 09:07:22,078
his father's shoe store in Vanoise where
10644
09:07:19,918 --> 09:07:25,360
he spent evenings helping and learning
10645
09:07:22,078 --> 09:07:27,598
the business. As one of three children,
10646
09:07:25,360 --> 09:07:30,078
Larry grew up in a household where hard
10647
09:07:27,598 --> 09:07:31,598
work wasn't just encouraged, it was the
10648
09:07:30,078 --> 09:07:33,680
baseline.
10649
09:07:31,598 --> 09:07:35,680
While he often joked he wasn't the
10650
09:07:33,680 --> 09:07:37,840
smartest in the room, it was this
10651
09:07:35,680 --> 09:07:40,640
specific combination of his mother's
10652
09:07:37,840 --> 09:07:42,640
intellectual curiosity and his father's
10653
09:07:40,640 --> 09:07:45,278
mainstream business sense that would
10654
09:07:42,640 --> 09:07:48,320
eventually form the DNA of a global
10655
09:07:45,278 --> 09:07:50,238
financial giant. While the future titans
10656
09:07:48,320 --> 09:07:52,640
of Wall Street were rubbing elbows in
10657
09:07:50,238 --> 09:07:56,960
the marble halls of Harvard or Yale,
10658
09:07:52,640 --> 09:07:59,040
Think was a brewin. In 1970, Larry
10659
09:07:56,960 --> 09:08:01,520
arrived at UCLA.
10660
09:07:59,040 --> 09:08:04,398
For a young man from Vanoise, this
10661
09:08:01,520 --> 09:08:06,398
wasn't just a local university. It was a
10662
09:08:04,398 --> 09:08:08,558
world of ideas.
10663
09:08:06,398 --> 09:08:11,040
But it was in his final years that the
10664
09:08:08,558 --> 09:08:13,520
trajectory of his life shifted. He
10665
09:08:11,040 --> 09:08:15,360
immersed himself in political science,
10666
09:08:13,520 --> 09:08:18,238
learning how power moves through
10667
09:08:15,360 --> 09:08:20,398
nations. But he soon realized that in
10668
09:08:18,238 --> 09:08:23,040
the modern world, power follows the
10669
09:08:20,398 --> 09:08:25,040
money. This led him to the Anderson
10670
09:08:23,040 --> 09:08:27,840
School of Management specializing in
10671
09:08:25,040 --> 09:08:29,680
real estate. It was here that he began
10672
09:08:27,840 --> 09:08:32,480
to see the world through the lens of
10673
09:08:29,680 --> 09:08:34,480
assets and yields.
10674
09:08:32,480 --> 09:08:36,878
This public education gave him a
10675
09:08:34,480 --> 09:08:38,718
different edge. While his peers at
10676
09:08:36,878 --> 09:08:40,960
private East Coast schools were being
10677
09:08:38,718 --> 09:08:43,680
groomed for traditional corporate roles,
10678
09:08:40,960 --> 09:08:45,680
Larry was developing the outsider's eye,
10679
09:08:43,680 --> 09:08:48,000
a perspective that allowed him to see
10680
09:08:45,680 --> 09:08:52,078
opportunities in the messy, unpolished
10681
09:08:48,000 --> 09:08:52,078
corners of the bond market.
10682
09:08:52,718 --> 09:08:58,558
He graduated in 1976, not with a silver
10683
09:08:56,398 --> 09:09:00,398
spoon, but with a California bred
10684
09:08:58,558 --> 09:09:02,078
ambition to take on the giants of
10685
09:09:00,398 --> 09:09:04,718
Manhattan.
10686
09:09:02,078 --> 09:09:07,200
He was a brewin headed for Wall Street,
10687
09:09:04,718 --> 09:09:10,438
and the financial world had no idea what
10688
09:09:07,200 --> 09:09:10,438
was coming.
10689
09:09:12,558 --> 09:09:17,040
The year is 1976.
10690
09:09:15,200 --> 09:09:19,200
New York City is a grit cover
10691
09:09:17,040 --> 09:09:21,918
battlefield and Larry Frink has just
10692
09:09:19,200 --> 09:09:24,238
been handed the keys to the kingdom.
10693
09:09:21,918 --> 09:09:26,480
Goldman Sachs, the most prestigious name
10694
09:09:24,238 --> 09:09:29,758
in finance back then, has practically
10695
09:09:26,480 --> 09:09:32,800
hired him. He had passed the technical
10696
09:09:29,758 --> 09:09:34,558
tests. He had charmed the partners. All
10697
09:09:32,800 --> 09:09:37,200
that remained was a rubber stamp
10698
09:09:34,558 --> 09:09:40,558
interview with human resources.
10699
09:09:37,200 --> 09:09:43,200
But Larry, Larry wasn't just confident,
10700
09:09:40,558 --> 09:09:45,040
he was impatient. When the recruiter
10701
09:09:43,200 --> 09:09:47,520
asked for his thoughts on the firm,
10702
09:09:45,040 --> 09:09:50,160
Larry didn't give a thank you. He gave a
10703
09:09:47,520 --> 09:09:52,718
consultation. He pointed out the flaws
10704
09:09:50,160 --> 09:09:55,840
in their system. At Goldman, they wanted
10705
09:09:52,718 --> 09:09:59,078
a soldier. Larry was already acting like
10706
09:09:55,840 --> 09:09:59,078
a general.
10707
09:10:00,558 --> 09:10:05,918
In that room, the rigid Golden Way
10708
09:10:02,960 --> 09:10:08,078
clashed with the unfiltered Frink way.
10709
09:10:05,918 --> 09:10:11,040
Before he could even hail a camp back to
10710
09:10:08,078 --> 09:10:12,878
his hotel, the offer was dead.
10711
09:10:11,040 --> 09:10:15,520
The most coveted job in Wall Street
10712
09:10:12,878 --> 09:10:17,598
history had vanished. All because Larry
10713
09:10:15,520 --> 09:10:20,078
Frink couldn't stop himself from trying
10714
09:10:17,598 --> 09:10:24,000
to fix a system he hadn't even joined
10715
09:10:20,078 --> 09:10:26,398
yet. It was a crushing blow. But in the
10716
09:10:24,000 --> 09:10:28,640
shadow of that rejection, a door opened
10717
09:10:26,398 --> 09:10:31,520
at a scrappy second tier firm called
10718
09:10:28,640 --> 09:10:34,878
First Boston. It was a place with less
10719
09:10:31,520 --> 09:10:37,200
prestige but more white space. At
10720
09:10:34,878 --> 09:10:40,238
Goldman, he would have been a cog in a
10721
09:10:37,200 --> 09:10:43,122
perfect machine. At first Boston, he was
10722
09:10:40,238 --> 09:10:45,200
the architect. He was given a desk, a
10723
09:10:43,122 --> 09:10:47,438
telephone, and the freedom to build
10724
09:10:45,200 --> 09:10:50,320
something entirely new. The
10725
09:10:47,438 --> 09:10:53,040
mortgagebacked security. He didn't know
10726
09:10:50,320 --> 09:10:55,680
it yet, but that recruiters know was the
10727
09:10:53,040 --> 09:11:00,680
foundation upon which the 14 trillion
10728
09:10:55,680 --> 09:11:00,680
empire of Black Rockck would be built.
10729
09:11:05,680 --> 09:11:12,000
It's 1976 when Larry Frink arrives at
10730
09:11:08,960 --> 09:11:14,000
First Boston. At the time, the firm was
10731
09:11:12,000 --> 09:11:16,718
the scrappy underdog of investment
10732
09:11:14,000 --> 09:11:20,398
banking. It wasn't as stiff as Morgan
10733
09:11:16,718 --> 09:11:22,480
Stanley or as elitist as Goldman. It was
10734
09:11:20,398 --> 09:11:25,680
the perfect laboratory for a man who
10735
09:11:22,480 --> 09:11:28,718
didn't fit the mold. Larry was assigned
10736
09:11:25,680 --> 09:11:30,640
to the bond department. Back then, bonds
10737
09:11:28,718 --> 09:11:31,840
were considered the boring corner of
10738
09:11:30,640 --> 09:11:34,718
finance.
10739
09:11:31,840 --> 09:11:37,840
It was where you went to retire. Stocks
10740
09:11:34,718 --> 09:11:40,718
were sexy. Bonds were for grandmothers.
10741
09:11:37,840 --> 09:11:42,238
But Larry saw something everyone else
10742
09:11:40,718 --> 09:11:44,480
missed.
10743
09:11:42,238 --> 09:11:47,200
He looked at the American dream, the
10744
09:11:44,480 --> 09:11:50,238
suburban house, the white picket fence,
10745
09:11:47,200 --> 09:11:51,598
the 30-year mortgage, and he saw a math
10746
09:11:50,238 --> 09:11:53,598
problem.
10747
09:11:51,598 --> 09:11:56,078
He realized that if you took thousands
10748
09:11:53,598 --> 09:11:58,160
of individual home mortgages, bundled
10749
09:11:56,078 --> 09:12:00,878
them together like a deck of cards, and
10750
09:11:58,160 --> 09:12:04,000
sold slices of that deck to investors,
10751
09:12:00,878 --> 09:12:06,800
you created a money machine.
10752
09:12:04,000 --> 09:12:08,320
This was the birth of the securitization
10753
09:12:06,800 --> 09:12:10,718
market.
10754
09:12:08,320 --> 09:12:13,360
What Larry Frink helped create was more
10755
09:12:10,718 --> 09:12:17,000
than a financial product. It was a
10756
09:12:13,360 --> 09:12:17,000
structural shift.
10757
09:12:17,360 --> 09:12:22,320
Securitization didn't just bundle
10758
09:12:19,438 --> 09:12:25,438
mortgages. It separated risk from
10759
09:12:22,320 --> 09:12:27,520
reality. For the first time, financial
10760
09:12:25,438 --> 09:12:30,480
value could travel faster than the
10761
09:12:27,520 --> 09:12:32,960
underlying economy that supported it. A
10762
09:12:30,480 --> 09:12:35,122
house in California became a line in a
10763
09:12:32,960 --> 09:12:38,800
spreadsheet in New York, which became a
10764
09:12:35,122 --> 09:12:40,718
yield sold to an investor in Tokyo. Risk
10765
09:12:38,800 --> 09:12:43,758
no longer lived where decisions were
10766
09:12:40,718 --> 09:12:46,078
made. It was abstracted, sliced,
10767
09:12:43,758 --> 09:12:49,040
repackaged, and distributed across the
10768
09:12:46,078 --> 09:12:51,278
system. This was the moment when finance
10769
09:12:49,040 --> 09:12:54,640
stopped reflecting the real economy and
10770
09:12:51,278 --> 09:12:56,960
began building a parallel one. A system
10771
09:12:54,640 --> 09:12:58,718
that could grow without limits as long
10772
09:12:56,960 --> 09:13:02,960
as everyone believed the models were
10773
09:12:58,718 --> 09:13:05,520
right. And for a while they were.
10774
09:13:02,960 --> 09:13:08,160
By the early 80s, Larry was the golden
10775
09:13:05,520 --> 09:13:10,558
boy. He wasn't just hitting targets, he
10776
09:13:08,160 --> 09:13:12,718
was shattering them. In one year, his
10777
09:13:10,558 --> 09:13:14,800
department was responsible for nearly
10778
09:13:12,718 --> 09:13:17,918
onethird of First Boston's total
10779
09:13:14,800 --> 09:13:20,160
profits. At age 31, he became the
10780
09:13:17,918 --> 09:13:23,122
youngest managing director the firm had
10781
09:13:20,160 --> 09:13:25,598
ever seen. He was earning millions. He
10782
09:13:23,122 --> 09:13:28,398
was the successor, the prodigy, the man
10783
09:13:25,598 --> 09:13:31,122
who could do no wrong. He had moved to
10784
09:13:28,398 --> 09:13:33,520
his family to a sprawling estate. He was
10785
09:13:31,122 --> 09:13:38,122
flying private. He had conquered the
10786
09:13:33,520 --> 09:13:38,122
grit cover battlefield of Manhattan.
10787
09:13:38,640 --> 09:13:43,122
But in the world of high finance, the
10788
09:13:40,878 --> 09:13:46,122
higher you fly, the thinner the air
10789
09:13:43,122 --> 09:13:46,122
becomes.
10790
09:13:47,598 --> 09:13:51,918
Larry was making hundreds of millions
10791
09:13:49,598 --> 09:13:54,718
for the bank, but there was a ghost in
10792
09:13:51,918 --> 09:13:58,640
the machine, a variable he hadn't
10793
09:13:54,718 --> 09:14:00,960
accounted for. The year was 1986.
10794
09:13:58,640 --> 09:14:03,758
Larry had made a massive bet on interest
10795
09:14:00,960 --> 09:14:07,278
rates. He believed they would stay
10796
09:14:03,758 --> 09:14:09,278
stable. He was so sure of his math, so
10797
09:14:07,278 --> 09:14:11,278
confident in his track record that he
10798
09:14:09,278 --> 09:14:13,598
didn't realize the ground was shifting
10799
09:14:11,278 --> 09:14:15,598
beneath his feet.
10800
09:14:13,598 --> 09:14:17,840
In just 3 months, the Golden Boys
10801
09:14:15,598 --> 09:14:21,598
department went from profit to a
10802
09:14:17,840 --> 09:14:24,800
catastrophic $100 million loss. In the
10803
09:14:21,598 --> 09:14:27,598
80s, 100 million wasn't just a loss. It
10804
09:14:24,800 --> 09:14:29,680
was a national scandal. Overnight, the
10805
09:14:27,598 --> 09:14:32,640
man who was supposed to run the bank was
10806
09:14:29,680 --> 09:14:34,558
a pariah. The phones stopped ringing.
10807
09:14:32,640 --> 09:14:37,200
The friends on the trading floor looked
10808
09:14:34,558 --> 09:14:39,438
away when he walked by. He had been the
10809
09:14:37,200 --> 09:14:42,238
smartest man in the room until he
10810
09:14:39,438 --> 09:14:44,398
wasn't. He would later describe this
10811
09:14:42,238 --> 09:14:47,598
moment as the most painful experience of
10812
09:14:44,398 --> 09:14:50,238
my life. But as he sat in the ruins of
10813
09:14:47,598 --> 09:14:52,640
his reputation, Larry Frink wasn't just
10814
09:14:50,238 --> 09:14:56,160
mourning his career. He was obsessed
10815
09:14:52,640 --> 09:14:57,758
with one question. How did I not see the
10816
09:14:56,160 --> 09:15:00,238
risk?
10817
09:14:57,758 --> 09:15:02,640
That obsession, the fear of the unknown
10818
09:15:00,238 --> 09:15:06,278
variable, would become the cornerstone
10819
09:15:02,640 --> 09:15:06,278
of Black Rockck.
10820
09:15:09,438 --> 09:15:15,598
By 1983, Larry wasn't just selling
10821
09:15:12,160 --> 09:15:20,040
bonds, he was a pioneer of the CMO,
10822
09:15:15,598 --> 09:15:20,040
collateralized mortgage obligation.
10823
09:15:20,320 --> 09:15:25,200
Think of it like a waterfall. Larry took
10824
09:15:23,040 --> 09:15:28,160
thousands of mortgages and sliced them
10825
09:15:25,200 --> 09:15:31,278
into tranches. Some investors took the
10826
09:15:28,160 --> 09:15:34,398
top slice, low risk, low reward. Others
10827
09:15:31,278 --> 09:15:36,238
took the bottom, high risk, high yield.
10828
09:15:34,398 --> 09:15:40,078
It was a masterpiece of financial
10829
09:15:36,238 --> 09:15:42,800
engineering. It made the illquid liquid.
10830
09:15:40,078 --> 09:15:45,122
It made first Boston the center of the
10831
09:15:42,800 --> 09:15:47,278
universe.
10832
09:15:45,122 --> 09:15:50,238
But there was a flaw, a tiny
10833
09:15:47,278 --> 09:15:52,238
mathematical ghost in his models.
10834
09:15:50,238 --> 09:15:54,558
Larry's team had predicted that interest
10835
09:15:52,238 --> 09:15:57,040
rates would rise and they hedged their
10836
09:15:54,558 --> 09:16:00,078
bets accordingly. But in the second
10837
09:15:57,040 --> 09:16:02,398
quarter of 1986, rates did something the
10838
09:16:00,078 --> 09:16:04,000
models said was impossible. They
10839
09:16:02,398 --> 09:16:05,758
plummeted
10840
09:16:04,000 --> 09:16:08,320
because they didn't have a system to
10841
09:16:05,758 --> 09:16:10,878
track their real-time exposure. Larry is
10842
09:16:08,320 --> 09:16:13,918
flying blind. He was the pilot of a
10843
09:16:10,878 --> 09:16:16,078
Boeing 747 trying to land in a storm
10844
09:16:13,918 --> 09:16:18,558
using nothing but a compass and a
10845
09:16:16,078 --> 09:16:20,640
prayer. By the time he realized the
10846
09:16:18,558 --> 09:16:24,718
engines were on fire, the plane had
10847
09:16:20,640 --> 09:16:28,040
already hit the mountain. $100 million.
10848
09:16:24,718 --> 09:16:28,040
All gone.
10849
09:16:30,238 --> 09:16:35,598
He wasn't just fired, he was erased.
10850
09:16:33,438 --> 09:16:38,558
After the dust settled, Larry found
10851
09:16:35,598 --> 09:16:41,598
himself in a peculiar kind of exile. He
10852
09:16:38,558 --> 09:16:44,320
wasn't just unemployed, he was haunted.
10853
09:16:41,598 --> 09:16:46,640
He realized that the $100 million loss
10854
09:16:44,320 --> 09:16:50,238
wasn't a failure of talent, it was a
10855
09:16:46,640 --> 09:16:52,960
failure of vision. What happened in 1986
10856
09:16:50,238 --> 09:16:56,000
wasn't a personal miscalculation.
10857
09:16:52,960 --> 09:16:58,320
It was a systemic blindness.
10858
09:16:56,000 --> 09:17:01,200
At the time, every major financial
10859
09:16:58,320 --> 09:17:04,238
institution operated the same way.
10860
09:17:01,200 --> 09:17:06,960
Positions were fragmented. Exposure was
10861
09:17:04,238 --> 09:17:10,078
estimated, not measured. Risk was
10862
09:17:06,960 --> 09:17:12,320
inferred after the fact. Banks knew what
10863
09:17:10,078 --> 09:17:15,360
they bought yesterday, but not what it
10864
09:17:12,320 --> 09:17:18,000
was worth right now. The system rewarded
10865
09:17:15,360 --> 09:17:20,558
speed, volume, and confidence, not
10866
09:17:18,000 --> 09:17:23,200
understanding. And as long as markets
10867
09:17:20,558 --> 09:17:25,598
moved slowly, the illusion held. But
10868
09:17:23,200 --> 09:17:28,558
once volatility entered the market, no
10869
09:17:25,598 --> 09:17:31,598
one truly knew where the danger was or
10870
09:17:28,558 --> 09:17:34,238
how large it had become. Larry didn't
10871
09:17:31,598 --> 09:17:36,238
just lose money. He realized the entire
10872
09:17:34,238 --> 09:17:39,200
financial system was flying without
10873
09:17:36,238 --> 09:17:42,238
instruments. Wall Street was essentially
10874
09:17:39,200 --> 09:17:46,238
a collection of blind giants. Every
10875
09:17:42,238 --> 09:17:48,320
major firm, Goldman, Layman, Meil Lynch,
10876
09:17:46,238 --> 09:17:51,840
was standing just one inch away from
10877
09:17:48,320 --> 09:17:54,398
total collapse at any given second.
10878
09:17:51,840 --> 09:17:57,520
Why? Because they didn't actually know
10879
09:17:54,398 --> 09:18:00,398
what they owned. This was information
10880
09:17:57,520 --> 09:18:02,800
blindness.
10881
09:18:00,398 --> 09:18:05,200
In the 1980s, you knew what you bought
10882
09:18:02,800 --> 09:18:08,398
yesterday, but you had no idea what it
10883
09:18:05,200 --> 09:18:10,960
was worth right now. A sudden shift in
10884
09:18:08,398 --> 09:18:13,278
interest rates or a political coup
10885
09:18:10,960 --> 09:18:15,040
across the ocean could vaporize a
10886
09:18:13,278 --> 09:18:18,000
billion dollars before the morning
10887
09:18:15,040 --> 09:18:21,360
coffee was poured.
10888
09:18:18,000 --> 09:18:24,000
Larry understood a terrifying truth. The
10889
09:18:21,360 --> 09:18:27,200
entire global financial system was built
10890
09:18:24,000 --> 09:18:29,122
on a foundation of guesswork.
10891
09:18:27,200 --> 09:18:32,558
It hit him with the force of an
10892
09:18:29,122 --> 09:18:34,398
epiphany. If he could build a brain, a
10893
09:18:32,558 --> 09:18:36,878
machine that could see the risk that
10894
09:18:34,398 --> 09:18:39,598
humans were too slow to calculate, he
10895
09:18:36,878 --> 09:18:41,360
wouldn't just be a banker. He would be
10896
09:18:39,598 --> 09:18:44,320
the only man in the world with a
10897
09:18:41,360 --> 09:18:46,398
flashlight in a dark room. This
10898
09:18:44,320 --> 09:18:49,122
realization changed his entire
10899
09:18:46,398 --> 09:18:51,200
philosophy of investing. He stopped
10900
09:18:49,122 --> 09:18:53,758
looking for the big score and started
10901
09:18:51,200 --> 09:18:56,160
looking for the safe passage. He didn't
10902
09:18:53,758 --> 09:18:59,758
want to beat the market anymore. He
10903
09:18:56,160 --> 09:19:02,160
wanted to measure it.
10904
09:18:59,758 --> 09:19:05,200
He would later tell his partners, "We
10905
09:19:02,160 --> 09:19:07,758
are never going to be blind again."
10906
09:19:05,200 --> 09:19:11,040
That vow born from the humiliation of
10907
09:19:07,758 --> 09:19:14,078
1986 became the blueprint for a new kind
10908
09:19:11,040 --> 09:19:16,960
of firm. A firm that didn't rely on the
10909
09:19:14,078 --> 09:19:21,240
ego of a star trader, but on the cold,
10910
09:19:16,960 --> 09:19:21,240
unblinking eye of technology.
10911
09:19:26,080 --> 09:19:32,080
Larry Frink was a man with a vision, but
10912
09:19:28,800 --> 09:19:33,916
he was also a man with a tainted resume.
10913
09:19:32,080 --> 09:19:36,640
To the rest of Wall Street, he was the
10914
09:19:33,916 --> 09:19:38,720
guy who lost a h 100red million. But to
10915
09:19:36,640 --> 09:19:41,360
a small circle of insiders at First
10916
09:19:38,720 --> 09:19:44,800
Boston, he was the only one who truly
10917
09:19:41,360 --> 09:19:47,596
understood why it happened. He began
10918
09:19:44,800 --> 09:19:50,160
making calls. He wasn't offering high
10919
09:19:47,596 --> 09:19:52,960
salaries or flashy offices. He was
10920
09:19:50,160 --> 09:19:55,120
offering a chance to build a holy grail,
10921
09:19:52,960 --> 09:19:57,360
a financial firm where technology
10922
09:19:55,120 --> 09:20:00,480
governed the ego, not the other way
10923
09:19:57,360 --> 09:20:02,640
round. And he eventually found the right
10924
09:20:00,480 --> 09:20:05,640
people to help him build that holy
10925
09:20:02,640 --> 09:20:05,640
grail.
10926
09:20:06,240 --> 09:20:12,480
Rob Capito, the enforcer, a powerhouse
10927
09:20:10,320 --> 09:20:15,120
trader who knew the plumbing of the bomb
10928
09:20:12,480 --> 09:20:17,120
market better than anyone else. He
10929
09:20:15,120 --> 09:20:20,720
provided the muscle Larry needed to
10930
09:20:17,120 --> 09:20:23,840
execute the vision. Ben Golib, the
10931
09:20:20,720 --> 09:20:26,480
Oracle, a PhD with a mind like a
10932
09:20:23,840 --> 09:20:29,276
supercomput. While other bankers were
10933
09:20:26,480 --> 09:20:31,756
focused on lunch reservations, Golib was
10934
09:20:29,276 --> 09:20:34,480
thinking about value at risk and Monte
10935
09:20:31,756 --> 09:20:38,000
Carlo simulations.
10936
09:20:34,480 --> 09:20:40,400
Susan Wagner, the mastermind,
10937
09:20:38,000 --> 09:20:42,000
brilliant, calculating, and capable of
10938
09:20:40,400 --> 09:20:44,240
seeing structural flaws in a
10939
09:20:42,000 --> 09:20:46,640
multi-billion dollar merger before a
10940
09:20:44,240 --> 09:20:49,200
single paper was signed. Along with
10941
09:20:46,640 --> 09:20:51,520
Barbara Novik, Ralph Schluststein, Q
10942
09:20:49,200 --> 09:20:54,640
Freighter, and Keith Anderson, they
10943
09:20:51,520 --> 09:20:56,400
became the original eight. Think wasn't
10944
09:20:54,640 --> 09:20:59,756
looking for bankers who would run after
10945
09:20:56,400 --> 09:21:02,800
the money. He wanted architects, people
10946
09:20:59,756 --> 09:21:04,800
who were tired of being blind.
10947
09:21:02,800 --> 09:21:07,436
When he found them, they met in living
10948
09:21:04,800 --> 09:21:09,360
rooms and coffee shops. They had the
10949
09:21:07,436 --> 09:21:12,320
blueprints for a system they called
10950
09:21:09,360 --> 09:21:15,120
Aladdin, an acronym for asset,
10951
09:21:12,320 --> 09:21:18,080
liability, debt, and derivative
10952
09:21:15,120 --> 09:21:20,640
investment network. It was designed to
10953
09:21:18,080 --> 09:21:24,000
be the unblinking eye Larry had dreamed
10954
09:21:20,640 --> 09:21:27,120
of in his exile. But a brain without a
10955
09:21:24,000 --> 09:21:29,276
body is just a dream. To build Aladdin,
10956
09:21:27,120 --> 09:21:32,080
they needed hardware. They needed
10957
09:21:29,276 --> 09:21:34,080
offices. And most importantly, they
10958
09:21:32,080 --> 09:21:37,436
needed the one thing Larry's reputation
10959
09:21:34,080 --> 09:21:39,520
had cost him. Capital. Aladdin was not
10960
09:21:37,436 --> 09:21:42,320
designed to beat the market. It was
10961
09:21:39,520 --> 09:21:44,560
designed to understand it. But its real
10962
09:21:42,320 --> 09:21:48,800
power emerged when others started using
10963
09:21:44,560 --> 09:21:51,916
it. Banks, insurance companies, pension
10964
09:21:48,800 --> 09:21:54,080
funds, sovereign institutions. As
10965
09:21:51,916 --> 09:21:57,596
Aladdin spread, something subtle
10966
09:21:54,080 --> 09:22:00,640
happened. Risk stopped being subjective.
10967
09:21:57,596 --> 09:22:03,200
It became standardized. When Aladdin
10968
09:22:00,640 --> 09:22:07,240
flagged an asset as dangerous, entire
10969
09:22:03,200 --> 09:22:07,240
markets adjusted accordingly.
10970
09:22:07,436 --> 09:22:12,720
Not because Larry Frink said so, but
10971
09:22:09,840 --> 09:22:14,560
because the system trusted the model. At
10972
09:22:12,720 --> 09:22:17,040
that point, Black Rockck was no longer
10973
09:22:14,560 --> 09:22:20,080
just managing money. It was helping
10974
09:22:17,040 --> 09:22:22,480
define how risk itself was understood.
10975
09:22:20,080 --> 09:22:26,200
And whoever defines risk defines the
10976
09:22:22,480 --> 09:22:26,200
boundaries of decisionmaking.
10977
09:22:34,720 --> 09:22:40,160
Enter Steven Schwartzman. In 1988,
10978
09:22:38,080 --> 09:22:43,276
Schwartzman was the rising king of
10979
09:22:40,160 --> 09:22:46,960
private equity. His firm Blackstone was
10980
09:22:43,276 --> 09:22:49,596
aggressive, wealthy, and hungry.
10981
09:22:46,960 --> 09:22:52,720
The meeting was tense. Schwartzman knew
10982
09:22:49,596 --> 09:22:56,160
Larry's history. He knew about the 1986
10983
09:22:52,720 --> 09:22:59,916
disaster. But Larry didn't hide from it.
10984
09:22:56,160 --> 09:23:01,840
He used it as his primary selling point.
10985
09:22:59,916 --> 09:23:04,240
Because Larry had seen the end of the
10986
09:23:01,840 --> 09:23:06,800
world already, he knew exactly how the
10987
09:23:04,240 --> 09:23:08,640
lights went out. And because of that, he
10988
09:23:06,800 --> 09:23:10,720
was the only one who knew how to keep
10989
09:23:08,640 --> 09:23:13,436
them on.
10990
09:23:10,720 --> 09:23:15,436
Larry's pitch was revolutionary. He
10991
09:23:13,436 --> 09:23:18,400
didn't want to start a hedge fund. He
10992
09:23:15,436 --> 09:23:20,400
wanted to create a fiduciary company.
10993
09:23:18,400 --> 09:23:22,640
a firm that managed other people's money
10994
09:23:20,400 --> 09:23:25,916
with the same technological rigor
10995
09:23:22,640 --> 09:23:28,320
usually reserved for NASA. He asked for
10996
09:23:25,916 --> 09:23:31,040
a $5 million credit line and a
10997
09:23:28,320 --> 09:23:34,080
partnership. In exchange, Schwartzman
10998
09:23:31,040 --> 09:23:36,240
would own 50% of the new venture. He
10999
09:23:34,080 --> 09:23:38,720
knew he was buying cheap because he was
11000
09:23:36,240 --> 09:23:41,200
buying on a distressed asset, Frink's
11001
09:23:38,720 --> 09:23:43,120
damaged reputation.
11002
09:23:41,200 --> 09:23:45,200
But he did so betting on the idea that
11003
09:23:43,120 --> 09:23:49,756
the experience had turned Larry Frink
11004
09:23:45,200 --> 09:23:53,040
into some sort of financial genius.
11005
09:23:49,756 --> 09:23:55,680
The deal was done. On a Friday in March
11006
09:23:53,040 --> 09:23:57,520
1988, the team moved into a single
11007
09:23:55,680 --> 09:23:59,120
cramped room within Blackstone's
11008
09:23:57,520 --> 09:24:01,756
offices.
11009
09:23:59,120 --> 09:24:03,840
They were five computers, a few folding
11010
09:24:01,756 --> 09:24:06,560
chairs, and a mountain of cables on the
11011
09:24:03,840 --> 09:24:08,880
floor. They were under the Blackstone
11012
09:24:06,560 --> 09:24:11,360
umbrella, but Larry knew that this was
11013
09:24:08,880 --> 09:24:14,800
just a temporary shelter. He didn't just
11014
09:24:11,360 --> 09:24:17,436
want a department. He wanted an empire.
11015
09:24:14,800 --> 09:24:19,680
He had the money. He had the team. And
11016
09:24:17,436 --> 09:24:21,756
in the corner of that small room, the
11017
09:24:19,680 --> 09:24:24,480
first lines of code for Aladdin were
11018
09:24:21,756 --> 09:24:27,436
being written.
11019
09:24:24,480 --> 09:24:29,436
The information blindness was over. The
11020
09:24:27,436 --> 09:24:33,960
era of Black Rock, though it didn't have
11021
09:24:29,436 --> 09:24:33,960
that name yet, had begun.
11022
09:24:38,080 --> 09:24:44,720
The first office of Blackstone Financial
11023
09:24:40,320 --> 09:24:47,040
Management wasn't a glass tower. It was
11024
09:24:44,720 --> 09:24:49,436
they were the weirdos in the basement.
11025
09:24:47,040 --> 09:24:53,200
It was here that the name Aladdin became
11026
09:24:49,436 --> 09:24:55,756
a living thing. Every day Benol and his
11027
09:24:53,200 --> 09:24:58,800
team fed it data, interest rates,
11028
09:24:55,756 --> 09:25:00,560
housing prices, historical crashes. They
11029
09:24:58,800 --> 09:25:05,960
were teaching the machine to be afraid
11030
09:25:00,560 --> 09:25:05,960
of everything Larry hadn't seen in 1986.
11031
09:25:09,520 --> 09:25:14,800
By 1992, the department inside
11032
09:25:12,240 --> 09:25:17,520
Blackstone was no longer a startup. It
11033
09:25:14,800 --> 09:25:20,880
was a powerhouse. Larry's team was
11034
09:25:17,520 --> 09:25:22,480
managing $17 billion.
11035
09:25:20,880 --> 09:25:24,800
They weren't just a side project
11036
09:25:22,480 --> 09:25:27,756
anymore. They were a significant engine
11037
09:25:24,800 --> 09:25:30,240
of Blackstone's growth. But with success
11038
09:25:27,756 --> 09:25:32,400
came a toxic byproduct,
11039
09:25:30,240 --> 09:25:35,040
identity confusion.
11040
09:25:32,400 --> 09:25:36,720
Clients were getting confused. They
11041
09:25:35,040 --> 09:25:39,200
would call Blackstone looking for
11042
09:25:36,720 --> 09:25:41,680
Larry's bond expertise or called Larry
11043
09:25:39,200 --> 09:25:44,160
looking for Schwarzman's buyouts. But
11044
09:25:41,680 --> 09:25:46,800
the friction went deeper than a name. It
11045
09:25:44,160 --> 09:25:49,360
was a war of philosophies. Schwartzman
11046
09:25:46,800 --> 09:25:52,640
was a dealmaker. He wanted to own
11047
09:25:49,360 --> 09:25:56,160
companies. Think was a fiduciary. He
11048
09:25:52,640 --> 09:25:58,240
wanted to manage risk for others.
11049
09:25:56,160 --> 09:26:00,640
The tension was similar to having two
11050
09:25:58,240 --> 09:26:02,960
predators in a cage too small to fit
11051
09:26:00,640 --> 09:26:06,080
both. The breaking point came over
11052
09:26:02,960 --> 09:26:08,320
equity. Larry wanted to use stock to
11053
09:26:06,080 --> 09:26:11,520
attract and keep the original eight and
11054
09:26:08,320 --> 09:26:13,596
new talent. Schwarzman, holding 50% of
11055
09:26:11,520 --> 09:26:16,160
the firm, didn't want to dilute his
11056
09:26:13,596 --> 09:26:18,400
state. The partnership that saved
11057
09:26:16,160 --> 09:26:24,320
Larry's career was now suffocating his
11058
09:26:18,400 --> 09:26:26,400
vision. In 1994, they reached the deal.
11059
09:26:24,320 --> 09:26:30,320
Schwarzman agreed to sell Blackstone
11060
09:26:26,400 --> 09:26:32,400
steak for $240 million. At the time, it
11061
09:26:30,320 --> 09:26:34,640
seemed like a win for Schwarzman, a
11062
09:26:32,400 --> 09:26:37,436
massive return on his $5 million
11063
09:26:34,640 --> 09:26:39,840
investment. It wasn't just about money.
11064
09:26:37,436 --> 09:26:42,080
It was about the spotlight. Schwarzman
11065
09:26:39,840 --> 09:26:44,640
was the king of Wall Street. But his
11066
09:26:42,080 --> 09:26:47,120
subtenant, Larry Frink, was the one the
11067
09:26:44,640 --> 09:26:50,640
New York Times wanted to interview. But
11068
09:26:47,120 --> 09:26:52,800
for Larry, it was the price of freedom.
11069
09:26:50,640 --> 09:26:55,040
Schwarzman would later call selling
11070
09:26:52,800 --> 09:26:57,756
Black Rock the worst mistake of my
11071
09:26:55,040 --> 09:27:00,320
career. For Larry, the divorce was the
11072
09:26:57,756 --> 09:27:02,800
moment the training wheels came off. He
11073
09:27:00,320 --> 09:27:05,840
was no longer under anyone's umbrella.
11074
09:27:02,800 --> 09:27:07,520
He was the CEO of an independent firm.
11075
09:27:05,840 --> 09:27:09,360
Now he just had to prove he could
11076
09:27:07,520 --> 09:27:12,360
survive the coming storm of the late
11077
09:27:09,360 --> 09:27:12,360
'90s.
11078
09:27:20,160 --> 09:27:26,000
It is 2008. The financial world was
11079
09:27:23,436 --> 09:27:28,240
experiencing a heart attack. The
11080
09:27:26,000 --> 09:27:30,560
financial smoothies that mortgage back
11081
09:27:28,240 --> 09:27:32,880
securities Larry had helped create 30
11082
09:27:30,560 --> 09:27:35,596
years earlier had turned into a global
11083
09:27:32,880 --> 09:27:38,000
poison. Banks didn't know what they
11084
09:27:35,596 --> 09:27:40,560
owned, and more importantly, they didn't
11085
09:27:38,000 --> 09:27:42,640
know what their neighbors owned. Trust
11086
09:27:40,560 --> 09:27:44,640
had evaporated.
11087
09:27:42,640 --> 09:27:46,400
When the US government realized the
11088
09:27:44,640 --> 09:27:48,480
economy was on the brink of a total
11089
09:27:46,400 --> 09:27:52,400
blackout, they didn't call Goldman
11090
09:27:48,480 --> 09:27:54,800
Sachs. They didn't call JP Morgan. While
11091
09:27:52,400 --> 09:27:56,720
the CEOs of Layman and Merrill were
11092
09:27:54,800 --> 09:27:58,880
begging for government checks, Larry
11093
09:27:56,720 --> 09:28:01,200
Frink was the one the government called
11094
09:27:58,880 --> 09:28:03,360
to write the checks.
11095
09:28:01,200 --> 09:28:05,840
He was the only titan left standing with
11096
09:28:03,360 --> 09:28:07,916
a clean balance sheet.
11097
09:28:05,840 --> 09:28:10,000
The United States government didn't just
11098
09:28:07,916 --> 09:28:11,916
seek advice, it delegated
11099
09:28:10,000 --> 09:28:13,840
responsibility.
11100
09:28:11,916 --> 09:28:16,720
Black Rockck was tasked with valuing
11101
09:28:13,840 --> 09:28:18,960
assets no one understood, managing risks
11102
09:28:16,720 --> 09:28:20,880
no one could measure, and stabilizing
11103
09:28:18,960 --> 09:28:23,360
markets that were collapsing in real
11104
09:28:20,880 --> 09:28:25,756
time.
11105
09:28:23,360 --> 09:28:28,880
This wasn't a bailout. It was an
11106
09:28:25,756 --> 09:28:30,720
outsourcing of core sovereign functions.
11107
09:28:28,880 --> 09:28:32,720
For the first time, a private firm
11108
09:28:30,720 --> 09:28:35,680
played a central role in maintaining
11109
09:28:32,720 --> 09:28:37,596
global financial stability. Not through
11110
09:28:35,680 --> 09:28:40,000
political authority, but through
11111
09:28:37,596 --> 09:28:42,640
technical capability.
11112
09:28:40,000 --> 09:28:45,520
From that moment on, power was no longer
11113
09:28:42,640 --> 09:28:47,520
just about laws and institutions. It was
11114
09:28:45,520 --> 09:28:49,680
about who had the tools to see the
11115
09:28:47,520 --> 09:28:51,596
system clearly.
11116
09:28:49,680 --> 09:28:54,720
Black Rockck was hired to manage the
11117
09:28:51,596 --> 09:28:56,400
toxic waste of the crisis. They became
11118
09:28:54,720 --> 09:28:59,756
the official cleaner for the US
11119
09:28:56,400 --> 09:29:03,240
government, managing 130 billion of
11120
09:28:59,756 --> 09:29:03,240
troubled assets.
11121
09:29:03,360 --> 09:29:08,000
Suddenly, Larry Frink was the most
11122
09:29:05,756 --> 09:29:09,756
powerful man in the room, acting as an
11123
09:29:08,000 --> 09:29:11,276
adviser to the president and the
11124
09:29:09,756 --> 09:29:13,680
treasury.
11125
09:29:11,276 --> 09:29:16,400
But while he was saving the system, he
11126
09:29:13,680 --> 09:29:18,720
saw a once-ina-lifetime opportunity to
11127
09:29:16,400 --> 09:29:21,276
dominate it. In the middle of the
11128
09:29:18,720 --> 09:29:24,000
carnage, Barclay's Bank in the UK was
11129
09:29:21,276 --> 09:29:26,320
desperate for cash. They needed to sell
11130
09:29:24,000 --> 09:29:28,320
their crown jewel, a division called
11131
09:29:26,320 --> 09:29:30,720
Barclay's Global Investors, which
11132
09:29:28,320 --> 09:29:32,480
included a revolutionary product called
11133
09:29:30,720 --> 09:29:35,520
Eyesshares.
11134
09:29:32,480 --> 09:29:37,596
Eyesshares represented passive investing
11135
09:29:35,520 --> 09:29:40,320
ETFs that tracked the whole market
11136
09:29:37,596 --> 09:29:42,160
rather than trying to beat it. It was
11137
09:29:40,320 --> 09:29:44,880
the ultimate expression of Larry's
11138
09:29:42,160 --> 09:29:47,520
philosophy. Stop betting on stars and
11139
09:29:44,880 --> 09:29:52,240
start owning the system. It was a
11140
09:29:47,520 --> 09:29:54,400
massive $13.5 billion gamble. If the
11141
09:29:52,240 --> 09:29:56,960
markets continue to fall, the deal could
11142
09:29:54,400 --> 09:29:59,200
sink Black Rockck. But Larry knew
11143
09:29:56,960 --> 09:30:01,200
something the others didn't. He had
11144
09:29:59,200 --> 09:30:03,436
looked into the eye of Aladdin. And
11145
09:30:01,200 --> 09:30:06,320
Aladdin told him that the bottom was
11146
09:30:03,436 --> 09:30:09,200
near. With the acquisition of Eyesshares
11147
09:30:06,320 --> 09:30:11,916
in 2009, Black Rockck doubled its size
11148
09:30:09,200 --> 09:30:14,640
overnight. They weren't just a bond shop
11149
09:30:11,916 --> 09:30:17,596
anymore. They were now the largest money
11150
09:30:14,640 --> 09:30:20,240
manager on the planet. They had gone
11151
09:30:17,596 --> 09:30:22,400
into the crisis as a respected firm.
11152
09:30:20,240 --> 09:30:26,200
They came out of it as the shadow
11153
09:30:22,400 --> 09:30:26,200
government of finance.
11154
09:30:30,880 --> 09:30:36,160
By 2012, Larry Frink had built the
11155
09:30:33,436 --> 09:30:38,800
machine. He had the assets, the data,
11156
09:30:36,160 --> 09:30:42,080
and the influence. But he realized that
11157
09:30:38,800 --> 09:30:44,000
being king of Wall Street wasn't enough.
11158
09:30:42,080 --> 09:30:47,200
He wanted to change the way the world
11159
09:30:44,000 --> 09:30:49,040
did business. Every January, a ritual
11160
09:30:47,200 --> 09:30:52,160
began that would send tremors through
11161
09:30:49,040 --> 09:30:54,480
boardrooms from Detroit to Frankfurt.
11162
09:30:52,160 --> 09:30:57,040
Larry started writing letters. They
11163
09:30:54,480 --> 09:31:00,916
weren't just annual reports. They were
11164
09:30:57,040 --> 09:31:00,916
the Black Rockck Manifestos.
11165
09:31:01,520 --> 09:31:07,520
In 2018, he dropped a bomb. He told the
11166
09:31:05,276 --> 09:31:09,680
world's CEOs that if they wanted Black
11167
09:31:07,520 --> 09:31:12,720
Rockck's money, they had to prove they
11168
09:31:09,680 --> 09:31:15,520
served a social purpose. He wasn't just
11169
09:31:12,720 --> 09:31:19,520
asking for profits. He was asking for a
11170
09:31:15,520 --> 09:31:22,400
soul. He was mainstreaming ESG,
11171
09:31:19,520 --> 09:31:25,596
environmental, social, and governance.
11172
09:31:22,400 --> 09:31:28,640
And he was doing it with a $10 trillion
11173
09:31:25,596 --> 09:31:32,160
hammer. But Larry's new gospel didn't
11174
09:31:28,640 --> 09:31:34,080
sit well with everyone. By 2021, the
11175
09:31:32,160 --> 09:31:37,680
Golden Boy was finding himself in the
11176
09:31:34,080 --> 09:31:40,880
middle of a two-front war.
11177
09:31:37,680 --> 09:31:44,720
The ESG debate was never cultural. It
11178
09:31:40,880 --> 09:31:46,720
was economic. At its core, ESG was about
11179
09:31:44,720 --> 09:31:49,200
risk management, anticipating
11180
09:31:46,720 --> 09:31:51,436
regulation, climate disruption, and
11181
09:31:49,200 --> 09:31:53,596
social instability.
11182
09:31:51,436 --> 09:31:56,560
For Black Rockck, ignoring those factors
11183
09:31:53,596 --> 09:31:59,040
wasn't neutral. It was dangerous. But
11184
09:31:56,560 --> 09:32:01,756
when capital begins to price the future,
11185
09:31:59,040 --> 09:32:04,640
it also begins to shape it. That's why
11186
09:32:01,756 --> 09:32:07,436
the backlash was so intense.
11187
09:32:04,640 --> 09:32:09,436
To the left, Larry was a hypocrite. They
11188
09:32:07,436 --> 09:32:11,596
called him a greenwasher because Black
11189
09:32:09,436 --> 09:32:14,160
Rockck still held billions in oil and
11190
09:32:11,596 --> 09:32:16,240
gas stocks. To the right, he was a
11191
09:32:14,160 --> 09:32:18,160
globalist villain who was using other
11192
09:32:16,240 --> 09:32:21,040
people's money to push a radical
11193
09:32:18,160 --> 09:32:23,040
environmental agenda. The backlash
11194
09:32:21,040 --> 09:32:26,040
turned into a full-scale political
11195
09:32:23,040 --> 09:32:26,040
assault.
11196
09:32:26,160 --> 09:32:30,880
State treasurers in Florida, Texas, and
11197
09:32:28,640 --> 09:32:33,520
Mississippi began pulling billions out
11198
09:32:30,880 --> 09:32:36,160
of Black Rockck. They accused Larry of
11199
09:32:33,520 --> 09:32:38,400
boycotting energy and violating his duty
11200
09:32:36,160 --> 09:32:40,240
to investors.
11201
09:32:38,400 --> 09:32:42,960
For the first time, the man who had
11202
09:32:40,240 --> 09:32:48,276
mastered risk found himself in a risk he
11203
09:32:42,960 --> 09:32:48,276
couldn't calculate, the culture war.
11204
09:32:49,756 --> 09:32:54,720
He told a crowd in Aspen that he was
11205
09:32:52,000 --> 09:32:56,880
ashamed to be a part of the debate. He
11206
09:32:54,720 --> 09:32:59,840
even stopped using the term ESG
11207
09:32:56,880 --> 09:33:01,680
altogether, calling it weaponized.
11208
09:32:59,840 --> 09:33:04,400
He had tried to become the conscience of
11209
09:33:01,680 --> 09:33:07,276
capitalism. Instead, it became its most
11210
09:33:04,400 --> 09:33:09,276
controversial target. But even as the
11211
09:33:07,276 --> 09:33:14,240
politicians shouted and the protesters
11212
09:33:09,276 --> 09:33:16,000
marched, the assets kept growing.
11213
09:33:14,240 --> 09:33:18,000
Because in the end, whether you loved
11214
09:33:16,000 --> 09:33:22,040
him or hated him, you couldn't escape
11215
09:33:18,000 --> 09:33:22,040
the machine he built.
11216
09:33:29,916 --> 09:33:36,160
January 2026, the number flashes on a
11217
09:33:33,756 --> 09:33:37,680
terminal in Black Rockck's Hudson Yards
11218
09:33:36,160 --> 09:33:40,240
headquarters.
11219
09:33:37,680 --> 09:33:43,360
$14 trillion.
11220
09:33:40,240 --> 09:33:44,960
It is a number so vast it defies human
11221
09:33:43,360 --> 09:33:47,436
comprehension.
11222
09:33:44,960 --> 09:33:49,916
If Larry Frink's assets under management
11223
09:33:47,436 --> 09:33:51,916
were a country's GDP, it would be the
11224
09:33:49,916 --> 09:33:54,400
third largest economy on Earth,
11225
09:33:51,916 --> 09:33:56,000
surpassed only by the United States and
11226
09:33:54,400 --> 09:33:58,240
China.
11227
09:33:56,000 --> 09:34:01,040
But as Larry looks out from his office,
11228
09:33:58,240 --> 09:34:02,960
he isn't looking at stock tickers. He is
11229
09:34:01,040 --> 09:34:05,960
looking at the very bones of
11230
09:34:02,960 --> 09:34:05,960
civilization.
11231
09:34:07,520 --> 09:34:13,916
In 2024, Larry made his final most
11232
09:34:10,960 --> 09:34:16,400
aggressive pivot. He realized that the
11233
09:34:13,916 --> 09:34:19,200
next decade won't be one with bits on a
11234
09:34:16,400 --> 09:34:22,400
screen, but with atoms in the ground.
11235
09:34:19,200 --> 09:34:24,880
With the 12.5 billion acquisition of
11236
09:34:22,400 --> 09:34:27,120
global infrastructure partners, Larry
11237
09:34:24,880 --> 09:34:30,560
signaled the end of the old Wall Street
11238
09:34:27,120 --> 09:34:33,120
era. Larry saw the AI revolution coming,
11239
09:34:30,560 --> 09:34:35,200
but he didn't buy the chip makers. He
11240
09:34:33,120 --> 09:34:38,200
bought the power plants that feed the
11241
09:34:35,200 --> 09:34:38,200
chips.
11242
09:34:41,040 --> 09:34:48,040
But every empire faces the same
11243
09:34:43,040 --> 09:34:48,040
inevitable question. Succession.
11244
09:34:49,436 --> 09:34:53,756
For years, Wall Street has whispered
11245
09:34:51,520 --> 09:34:57,040
about who could possibly replace the man
11246
09:34:53,756 --> 09:34:59,360
who is Black Rockck. Names like Rob
11247
09:34:57,040 --> 09:35:01,756
Capo, Mark Weberman, and Jennifer
11248
09:34:59,360 --> 09:35:04,800
Johnson swirl in the press. But the
11249
09:35:01,756 --> 09:35:07,596
truth is more complex. Larry hasn't just
11250
09:35:04,800 --> 09:35:09,840
built a company. He's built an organism,
11251
09:35:07,596 --> 09:35:12,720
a system where Aladdin, now a very
11252
09:35:09,840 --> 09:35:15,840
sophisticated AI entity, handles the
11253
09:35:12,720 --> 09:35:18,640
risk while a legion of 20,000 employees,
11254
09:35:15,840 --> 09:35:21,040
executes the vision. Aladdin is no
11255
09:35:18,640 --> 09:35:23,040
longer just a calculator. It is a
11256
09:35:21,040 --> 09:35:25,756
predictive engine that runs millions of
11257
09:35:23,040 --> 09:35:27,596
simulations every second, anticipating
11258
09:35:25,756 --> 09:35:31,436
everything from a war in the Middle East
11259
09:35:27,596 --> 09:35:33,840
to a crop failure in Brazil.
11260
09:35:31,436 --> 09:35:36,960
Some call him the king of the world.
11261
09:35:33,840 --> 09:35:39,276
Others call him the shadow architect,
11262
09:35:36,960 --> 09:35:41,360
but if you ask Larry, he'll tell you
11263
09:35:39,276 --> 09:35:43,596
he's still that kid from the Vanoise
11264
09:35:41,360 --> 09:35:47,720
shoe store, just trying to make sure
11265
09:35:43,596 --> 09:35:47,720
that the maths add up.
11266
09:35:48,000 --> 09:35:52,320
He took the greatest humiliation of his
11267
09:35:50,000 --> 09:35:54,320
life and turned it into a shield for the
11268
09:35:52,320 --> 09:35:56,400
global economy.
11269
09:35:54,320 --> 09:35:59,040
He taught the world that profit without
11270
09:35:56,400 --> 09:36:04,080
a plan is just a gamble and that in the
11271
09:35:59,040 --> 09:36:06,160
dark, the man with a flashlight is king.
11272
09:36:04,080 --> 09:36:09,120
There is one financial question the
11273
09:36:06,160 --> 09:36:11,756
system cannot answer. What happens when
11274
09:36:09,120 --> 09:36:14,080
everyone measures risk the same way?
11275
09:36:11,756 --> 09:36:16,480
When models converge. When assumptions
11276
09:36:14,080 --> 09:36:18,240
align. When diversity of judgment
11277
09:36:16,480 --> 09:36:20,480
disappears.
11278
09:36:18,240 --> 09:36:23,436
A system optimized for stability can
11279
09:36:20,480 --> 09:36:25,436
become fragile. Not because it is wrong
11280
09:36:23,436 --> 09:36:27,120
but because it leaves no room for the
11281
09:36:25,436 --> 09:36:29,276
unexpected.
11282
09:36:27,120 --> 09:36:31,756
When the supervisor becomes invisible
11283
09:36:29,276 --> 09:36:34,880
and the rules are embedded in code,
11284
09:36:31,756 --> 09:36:38,160
accountability becomes harder to locate,
11285
09:36:34,880 --> 09:36:40,080
the system works until it doesn't. And
11286
09:36:38,160 --> 09:36:42,640
that's why Blackprop isn't just a
11287
09:36:40,080 --> 09:36:45,276
shareholder in your company. They are
11288
09:36:42,640 --> 09:36:48,080
the landlord of your power plant, the
11289
09:36:45,276 --> 09:36:50,400
owner of your airport, the architect of
11290
09:36:48,080 --> 09:36:52,400
your retirement. It is a level of
11291
09:36:50,400 --> 09:36:55,200
centralized influence the world has
11292
09:36:52,400 --> 09:36:58,480
never seen in a private individual.
11293
09:36:55,200 --> 09:37:00,560
Lawrence D.Fin didn't just build a bank.
11294
09:36:58,480 --> 09:37:02,240
He built the unblinking eye of
11295
09:37:00,560 --> 09:37:04,480
capitalism.
11296
09:37:02,240 --> 09:37:06,640
And as the world moves into the era of
11297
09:37:04,480 --> 09:37:09,520
AI, climate shift, and global
11298
09:37:06,640 --> 09:37:12,880
restructuring, one thing is certain.
11299
09:37:09,520 --> 09:37:17,480
Black Rockck will be there, watching,
11300
09:37:12,880 --> 09:37:17,480
calculating, and growing.
11301
09:38:37,436 --> 09:38:42,480
It's just a small plastic brick.
11302
09:38:40,960 --> 09:38:47,596
Lightweight,
11303
09:38:42,480 --> 09:38:51,916
simple, unchanged since 1958.
11304
09:38:47,596 --> 09:38:54,000
And yet, it has built entire universes.
11305
09:38:51,916 --> 09:38:56,480
Lego constructions truly take us back to
11306
09:38:54,000 --> 09:38:58,320
childhood.
11307
09:38:56,480 --> 09:39:00,800
But they stay with us throughout our
11308
09:38:58,320 --> 09:39:03,200
entire lives. From bedrooms to
11309
09:39:00,800 --> 09:39:07,436
boardrooms, from playgrounds to
11310
09:39:03,200 --> 09:39:09,916
Hollywood, Lego has shaped generations.
11311
09:39:07,436 --> 09:39:11,680
>> When I design something from scratch, I
11312
09:39:09,916 --> 09:39:14,080
start with an idea that occurs to me at
11313
09:39:11,680 --> 09:39:15,916
any time of day.
11314
09:39:14,080 --> 09:39:18,880
I try to build it with Lego and see what
11315
09:39:15,916 --> 09:39:22,960
I come up with. In a global toy market
11316
09:39:18,880 --> 09:39:25,680
worth more than $120 billion, LEGO
11317
09:39:22,960 --> 09:39:28,720
stands alone. A single company
11318
09:39:25,680 --> 09:39:31,040
controlling nearly one in every $10
11319
09:39:28,720 --> 09:39:33,200
spent on toys worldwide.
11320
09:39:31,040 --> 09:39:34,800
>> Lego holds a leading position worldwide,
11321
09:39:33,200 --> 09:39:36,480
recognized above all for its
11322
09:39:34,800 --> 09:39:38,640
playability.
11323
09:39:36,480 --> 09:39:42,720
>> What if the most beloved toy in the
11324
09:39:38,640 --> 09:39:45,120
world almost didn't exist?
11325
09:39:42,720 --> 09:39:47,840
Discover the incredible journey of a
11326
09:39:45,120 --> 09:39:49,756
small, struggling carpentry shop. The
11327
09:39:47,840 --> 09:39:51,680
dared to dream bigger than anyone
11328
09:39:49,756 --> 09:39:54,160
thought possible.
11329
09:39:51,680 --> 09:39:57,276
>> This is the untold story of the
11330
09:39:54,160 --> 09:40:00,320
visionary who built Lego.
11331
09:39:57,276 --> 09:40:03,596
Transforming simple wooden bricks into a
11332
09:40:00,320 --> 09:40:06,480
multibillion dollar empire and forever
11333
09:40:03,596 --> 09:40:08,720
changing how we play.
11334
09:40:06,480 --> 09:40:11,916
But none of this began with billiondoll
11335
09:40:08,720 --> 09:40:15,840
charts or cinematic universes.
11336
09:40:11,916 --> 09:40:19,120
It began with a carpenter with a vision.
11337
09:40:15,840 --> 09:40:22,240
In a tiny Danish village, one man had a
11338
09:40:19,120 --> 09:40:25,240
dream. Building toys out of scraps of
11339
09:40:22,240 --> 09:40:25,240
wood.
11340
09:40:31,436 --> 09:40:38,240
Ole Kirk Christensen was born in 1891 in
11341
09:40:35,276 --> 09:40:42,240
western Denmark, a place defined by
11342
09:40:38,240 --> 09:40:44,960
silence, soil, and hard work.
11343
09:40:42,240 --> 09:40:47,120
He grew up poor, like most children in
11344
09:40:44,960 --> 09:40:48,480
the Jutland countryside.
11345
09:40:47,120 --> 09:40:51,200
But he learned the value of
11346
09:40:48,480 --> 09:40:54,720
craftsmanship early. When you made
11347
09:40:51,200 --> 09:40:57,360
something, it had to last.
11348
09:40:54,720 --> 09:40:59,596
He apprenticed as a carpenter. It was
11349
09:40:57,360 --> 09:41:03,200
not a really glamorous work, but
11350
09:40:59,596 --> 09:41:06,560
meticulous, honest, a craft that matched
11351
09:41:03,200 --> 09:41:08,960
Ola's character and manners.
11352
09:41:06,560 --> 09:41:12,400
Ola traveled through Denmark, Germany,
11353
09:41:08,960 --> 09:41:15,840
and Norway. Everywhere he went, he left
11354
09:41:12,400 --> 09:41:17,916
a reputation. Precise, patient,
11355
09:41:15,840 --> 09:41:21,520
relentless.
11356
09:41:17,916 --> 09:41:23,596
In 1916, Ole returned home and bought a
11357
09:41:21,520 --> 09:41:27,840
workshop in a place that barely existed
11358
09:41:23,596 --> 09:41:30,400
on the map. Bund. No shops, no train
11359
09:41:27,840 --> 09:41:32,400
station, just a handful of families
11360
09:41:30,400 --> 09:41:34,240
trying to survive the Danish winds.
11361
09:41:32,400 --> 09:41:37,360
>> Don't worry, I'm fine. I'm fine.
11362
09:41:34,240 --> 09:41:39,520
>> But 8 years later, disaster struck.
11363
09:41:37,360 --> 09:41:42,560
>> Oh. Oh. Oh no.
11364
09:41:39,520 --> 09:41:43,276
>> In 1924, a fire tore through his
11365
09:41:42,560 --> 09:41:46,080
workshop.
11366
09:41:43,276 --> 09:41:47,756
>> Oh god. No. Please no. Oh my god.
11367
09:41:46,080 --> 09:41:52,000
>> Everything burned.
11368
09:41:47,756 --> 09:41:55,360
tools, wood, orders, and a lifetime of
11369
09:41:52,000 --> 09:41:59,436
savings, all gone.
11370
09:41:55,360 --> 09:42:02,080
But Ol didn't quit. He rebuilt and
11371
09:41:59,436 --> 09:42:04,640
rebuilt bigger than before. Not because
11372
09:42:02,080 --> 09:42:08,560
it was safe, but because he refused to
11373
09:42:04,640 --> 09:42:11,436
let Bill disappear into the wind.
11374
09:42:08,560 --> 09:42:14,080
Then came the Great Depression. Houses
11375
09:42:11,436 --> 09:42:17,916
weren't being built. Doors weren't being
11376
09:42:14,080 --> 09:42:20,640
ordered. Bills weren't being paid.
11377
09:42:17,916 --> 09:42:23,596
Ole had workers depending on him,
11378
09:42:20,640 --> 09:42:26,560
families depending on him. So, he did
11379
09:42:23,596 --> 09:42:28,880
something unexpected. He began crafting
11380
09:42:26,560 --> 09:42:32,000
small wooden toys.
11381
09:42:28,880 --> 09:42:34,000
They were simple, durable, and
11382
09:42:32,000 --> 09:42:36,960
beautiful.
11383
09:42:34,000 --> 09:42:40,800
Locals mocked him. A grown man making
11384
09:42:36,960 --> 09:42:44,080
toys for children. You'll never survive.
11385
09:42:40,800 --> 09:42:46,080
But Ola believed that play and fun was a
11386
09:42:44,080 --> 09:42:49,200
serious business.
11387
09:42:46,080 --> 09:42:52,880
In 1934, he held a contest to name the
11388
09:42:49,200 --> 09:42:56,560
new toy company. He chose a short word,
11389
09:42:52,880 --> 09:43:00,240
Lego. It was not only a simple idea, but
11390
09:42:56,560 --> 09:43:03,040
a philosophy and a promise.
11391
09:43:00,240 --> 09:43:05,680
He hung a sign in the workshop. Only the
11392
09:43:03,040 --> 09:43:10,840
best is good enough. It wasn't
11393
09:43:05,680 --> 09:43:10,840
marketing. It was his identity.
11394
09:43:12,640 --> 09:43:15,916
Oh god, not again.
11395
09:43:14,160 --> 09:43:19,360
>> In 1942,
11396
09:43:15,916 --> 09:43:21,916
Ola faced another fire. This time it was
11397
09:43:19,360 --> 09:43:25,520
bigger, more devastating. Every
11398
09:43:21,916 --> 09:43:28,080
blueprint, every toy, every dream he had
11399
09:43:25,520 --> 09:43:30,960
turned into smoke.
11400
09:43:28,080 --> 09:43:34,480
But he had built himself the hardship.
11401
09:43:30,960 --> 09:43:37,596
And once more, he rebuilt the factory
11402
09:43:34,480 --> 09:43:41,596
stronger than the two previous ones.
11403
09:43:37,596 --> 09:43:43,680
In 1947, at the worst economic moment,
11404
09:43:41,596 --> 09:43:46,640
Ola made the riskiest choice of his
11405
09:43:43,680 --> 09:43:48,800
life. He spent more than twice the
11406
09:43:46,640 --> 09:43:51,596
company's annual profits on a strange
11407
09:43:48,800 --> 09:43:54,640
new machine, one that worked not with
11408
09:43:51,596 --> 09:43:57,276
wood, but with plastic.
11409
09:43:54,640 --> 09:43:59,680
Retailers hated plastic. Parents
11410
09:43:57,276 --> 09:44:03,520
distrusted it. But Ola saw something
11411
09:43:59,680 --> 09:44:05,916
they didn't. Precision, repeatability,
11412
09:44:03,520 --> 09:44:08,160
and possibilities. Endless
11413
09:44:05,916 --> 09:44:11,520
possibilities.
11414
09:44:08,160 --> 09:44:13,680
Only 2 years later, in 1949,
11415
09:44:11,520 --> 09:44:16,960
LEGO released the first plastic bricks
11416
09:44:13,680 --> 09:44:19,756
of its history. They didn't click. They
11417
09:44:16,960 --> 09:44:22,756
weren't perfect, but they were the
11418
09:44:19,756 --> 09:44:22,756
beginning.
11419
09:44:27,040 --> 09:44:31,360
>> The idea was good, but Ola and his team
11420
09:44:29,596 --> 09:44:33,680
faced setbacks while designing the
11421
09:44:31,360 --> 09:44:36,960
bricks that had cemented LEGO's identity
11422
09:44:33,680 --> 09:44:40,080
through the years. The plastic bricks
11423
09:44:36,960 --> 09:44:42,160
didn't grip. This was a major problem
11424
09:44:40,080 --> 09:44:44,880
for a building set because buildings
11425
09:44:42,160 --> 09:44:48,320
collapsed. Towers fell in front of their
11426
09:44:44,880 --> 09:44:52,800
eyes. Apparently, Lego wasn't created to
11427
09:44:48,320 --> 09:44:55,040
build. And then in 1958,
11428
09:44:52,800 --> 09:44:57,360
everything changed.
11429
09:44:55,040 --> 09:44:59,360
>> Unlike 20 years ago, LEGO today allows
11430
09:44:57,360 --> 09:45:01,680
us to build many more things because
11431
09:44:59,360 --> 09:45:05,000
they have released more realistic colors
11432
09:45:01,680 --> 09:45:05,000
and shapes.
11433
09:45:05,360 --> 09:45:10,160
In the past, the pieces were mostly
11434
09:45:07,436 --> 09:45:12,160
square. Today, there is a much wider
11435
09:45:10,160 --> 09:45:14,320
variety of shapes, including more
11436
09:45:12,160 --> 09:45:17,120
rounded elements, which allow us to
11437
09:45:14,320 --> 09:45:18,880
create more ergonomic forms, ones that
11438
09:45:17,120 --> 09:45:21,200
more closely resemble the kinds of
11439
09:45:18,880 --> 09:45:23,360
buildings and structures we see in
11440
09:45:21,200 --> 09:45:26,400
everyday life.
11441
09:45:23,360 --> 09:45:29,520
>> Engineers at LEGO perfected a simple but
11442
09:45:26,400 --> 09:45:31,520
ingenious solution. hollow tubes inside
11443
09:45:29,520 --> 09:45:33,840
the brick.
11444
09:45:31,520 --> 09:45:36,400
Paired with the studs on top, the
11445
09:45:33,840 --> 09:45:40,240
geometry created what LEGO calls clutch
11446
09:45:36,400 --> 09:45:42,480
power. Not too tight, not too loose,
11447
09:45:40,240 --> 09:45:44,400
just perfect.
11448
09:45:42,480 --> 09:45:47,040
This was not just an adjustment or
11449
09:45:44,400 --> 09:45:50,160
improvement. It was the birth of what we
11450
09:45:47,040 --> 09:45:52,800
know today as a Lego brick. The brick
11451
09:45:50,160 --> 09:45:54,880
that today can still be used with the
11452
09:45:52,800 --> 09:45:56,960
modern ones.
11453
09:45:54,880 --> 09:46:00,480
the brick that was the foundation of a
11454
09:45:56,960 --> 09:46:03,916
company that still makes history today.
11455
09:46:00,480 --> 09:46:05,916
That same year, Lego filed the patent.
11456
09:46:03,916 --> 09:46:08,560
They had something worth protecting, and
11457
09:46:05,916 --> 09:46:11,360
O knew that sooner or later it would be
11458
09:46:08,560 --> 09:46:15,040
replicated.
11459
09:46:11,360 --> 09:46:18,080
It was January the 28th, 1958 when the
11460
09:46:15,040 --> 09:46:21,360
patent was filed. Later that year,
11461
09:46:18,080 --> 09:46:24,640
Oliver Christensen passed away.
11462
09:46:21,360 --> 09:46:28,436
And sadly, he never lived to see how far
11463
09:46:24,640 --> 09:46:28,436
his brick would travel.
11464
09:46:36,000 --> 09:46:41,436
After his father died, Godfred Kerr
11465
09:46:38,560 --> 09:46:43,680
Christensen stepped in. He wasn't
11466
09:46:41,436 --> 09:46:46,720
inheriting the company. He was
11467
09:46:43,680 --> 09:46:49,200
inheriting a philosophy, one he had been
11468
09:46:46,720 --> 09:46:51,840
raised with. His father wasn't around
11469
09:46:49,200 --> 09:46:53,916
anymore, but the original spirit of Lego
11470
09:46:51,840 --> 09:46:55,916
lived on in the second Christensen
11471
09:46:53,916 --> 09:46:58,320
generation.
11472
09:46:55,916 --> 09:47:00,400
But he also had something to add.
11473
09:46:58,320 --> 09:47:03,756
Godfred believed Lego should be more
11474
09:47:00,400 --> 09:47:06,080
than toys. It should be a system. A
11475
09:47:03,756 --> 09:47:10,000
system where every piece connected with
11476
09:47:06,080 --> 09:47:12,080
every other piece across every set.
11477
09:47:10,000 --> 09:47:13,916
This created a language of creativity
11478
09:47:12,080 --> 09:47:17,120
and possibilities.
11479
09:47:13,916 --> 09:47:19,596
And a single idea changed everything.
11480
09:47:17,120 --> 09:47:23,520
Suddenly, LEGO wasn't a collection of
11481
09:47:19,596 --> 09:47:26,000
toys, but an entire universe.
11482
09:47:23,520 --> 09:47:28,000
The company began to grow far beyond its
11483
09:47:26,000 --> 09:47:31,756
original frontiers.
11484
09:47:28,000 --> 09:47:36,480
During the 1960s and '7s, Lego expanded
11485
09:47:31,756 --> 09:47:39,276
across Europe, Germany, Sweden, the UK.
11486
09:47:36,480 --> 09:47:42,720
Bund, once a small village, became a
11487
09:47:39,276 --> 09:47:45,360
global hub of play. Lego then built its
11488
09:47:42,720 --> 09:47:47,596
own airport, factories, and distribution
11489
09:47:45,360 --> 09:47:50,320
centers. In the world of construction
11490
09:47:47,596 --> 09:47:53,040
toys, we know that Lego isn't the only
11491
09:47:50,320 --> 09:47:57,596
brand around.
11492
09:47:53,040 --> 09:48:00,160
What Lego provides is a quality product.
11493
09:47:57,596 --> 09:48:03,040
Maybe one part is wrong for every 10,000
11494
09:48:00,160 --> 09:48:05,840
or 100,000 items. And if you are missing
11495
09:48:03,040 --> 09:48:08,000
an item from a box, or if it is faulty,
11496
09:48:05,840 --> 09:48:09,436
the company's after sales service will
11497
09:48:08,000 --> 09:48:12,840
not question the fact that you are
11498
09:48:09,436 --> 09:48:12,840
missing a part.
11499
09:48:13,520 --> 09:48:19,840
And then the magic happened.
11500
09:48:17,200 --> 09:48:24,080
LEGO introduced something no toy company
11501
09:48:19,840 --> 09:48:27,916
had done at scale. Fully themed worlds.
11502
09:48:24,080 --> 09:48:29,200
Space town castles.
11503
09:48:27,916 --> 09:48:31,680
Children weren't just building
11504
09:48:29,200 --> 09:48:33,520
structures anymore. They were building
11505
09:48:31,680 --> 09:48:37,120
stories.
11506
09:48:33,520 --> 09:48:39,040
In 1978, LEGO released its most iconic
11507
09:48:37,120 --> 09:48:40,640
invention since the brick, the
11508
09:48:39,040 --> 09:48:43,680
minifigure.
11509
09:48:40,640 --> 09:48:47,520
It had a simple face, hands shaped like
11510
09:48:43,680 --> 09:48:50,240
a sea, and feet made to stand on studs.
11511
09:48:47,520 --> 09:48:53,200
A tiny character that let kids project
11512
09:48:50,240 --> 09:48:56,240
themselves into entire universes.
11513
09:48:53,200 --> 09:48:57,756
Stories now had heroes, and Lego had a
11514
09:48:56,240 --> 09:49:00,880
heartbeat.
11515
09:48:57,756 --> 09:49:03,596
In the late 1970s, Lego was already run
11516
09:49:00,880 --> 09:49:07,040
by the third Christensen generation.
11517
09:49:03,596 --> 09:49:09,360
Ole's grandson Kild began shaping the
11518
09:49:07,040 --> 09:49:12,720
company into the global powerhouse we
11519
09:49:09,360 --> 09:49:15,436
know today. He did so by creating more
11520
09:49:12,720 --> 09:49:18,720
sophisticated lines, bringing in new
11521
09:49:15,436 --> 09:49:21,040
universes, technic brought mechanics,
11522
09:49:18,720 --> 09:49:24,000
pirates brought adventure, and trains
11523
09:49:21,040 --> 09:49:26,400
brought motion. By the late 20th
11524
09:49:24,000 --> 09:49:29,436
century, the global toy market was
11525
09:49:26,400 --> 09:49:31,520
becoming massive. Tens of billions of
11526
09:49:29,436 --> 09:49:33,916
dollars a year worth.
11527
09:49:31,520 --> 09:49:36,720
The United States spent more on toys
11528
09:49:33,916 --> 09:49:39,596
than any country on Earth. And China
11529
09:49:36,720 --> 09:49:41,680
produced most of them, nearly 3/4 of the
11530
09:49:39,596 --> 09:49:44,640
world's total.
11531
09:49:41,680 --> 09:49:50,520
In this booming landscape, Lego wasn't
11532
09:49:44,640 --> 09:49:50,520
just another toy. It was the toy.
11533
09:49:55,120 --> 09:50:00,960
By the late 1990s, Lego was flying high.
11534
09:49:58,960 --> 09:50:03,120
It had become one of the most admired
11535
09:50:00,960 --> 09:50:05,276
companies in Europe. A creative
11536
09:50:03,120 --> 09:50:07,756
powerhouse built on the philosophy of
11537
09:50:05,276 --> 09:50:09,756
imagination and creation. We're not
11538
09:50:07,756 --> 09:50:11,520
focused only on childhood, but on
11539
09:50:09,756 --> 09:50:13,840
something that has quite literally built
11540
09:50:11,520 --> 09:50:16,000
us, pun intended, shaping our
11541
09:50:13,840 --> 09:50:18,640
personalities through Lego from an early
11542
09:50:16,000 --> 09:50:22,960
age. Those memories became a foundation
11543
09:50:18,640 --> 09:50:24,880
we've kept building on over time.
11544
09:50:22,960 --> 09:50:26,720
That's why exhibitions like this bring
11545
09:50:24,880 --> 09:50:29,680
us straight back to childhood. The
11546
09:50:26,720 --> 09:50:31,840
audience here is very diverse, but once
11547
09:50:29,680 --> 09:50:34,080
people walk in, they all become the boy
11548
09:50:31,840 --> 09:50:36,960
or girl they once were.
11549
09:50:34,080 --> 09:50:39,276
>> But it's not all gold that glitters.
11550
09:50:36,960 --> 09:50:42,240
Under the surface, something dangerous
11551
09:50:39,276 --> 09:50:44,480
was creeping in. The toy market was
11552
09:50:42,240 --> 09:50:46,480
changing fast. Children were spending
11553
09:50:44,480 --> 09:50:48,880
more and more time with video games and
11554
09:50:46,480 --> 09:50:51,120
early computer entertainment.
11555
09:50:48,880 --> 09:50:53,276
Sony's PlayStation, Nintendo, and
11556
09:50:51,120 --> 09:50:56,640
Hasbro's electronic toys were capturing
11557
09:50:53,276 --> 09:51:01,040
attention. And Lego, determined not to
11558
09:50:56,640 --> 09:51:03,520
fall behind, expanded too far too fast.
11559
09:51:01,040 --> 09:51:05,756
Throughout the 1990s, LEGO began
11560
09:51:03,520 --> 09:51:08,560
introducing thousands of completely new
11561
09:51:05,756 --> 09:51:11,520
pieces, specialized parts that not only
11562
09:51:08,560 --> 09:51:15,276
worked in one set. A single year could
11563
09:51:11,520 --> 09:51:17,436
bring more than 350 new designs. Each of
11564
09:51:15,276 --> 09:51:19,916
them costing tens of thousands of
11565
09:51:17,436 --> 09:51:22,160
dollars in steel machining and precision
11566
09:51:19,916 --> 09:51:24,080
engineering.
11567
09:51:22,160 --> 09:51:26,400
In 2002,
11568
09:51:24,080 --> 09:51:29,360
Lego had more than 12,000 active
11569
09:51:26,400 --> 09:51:31,756
elements. The system of play, once
11570
09:51:29,360 --> 09:51:35,120
simple and universal, was becoming
11571
09:51:31,756 --> 09:51:38,160
chaotic and difficult to follow. LEGO
11572
09:51:35,120 --> 09:51:40,240
also tried becoming a lifestyle brand.
11573
09:51:38,160 --> 09:51:43,360
New ventures appeared everywhere.
11574
09:51:40,240 --> 09:51:45,596
Clothing lines, theme parks, homegoods,
11575
09:51:43,360 --> 09:51:47,276
cartoon series, even watches and
11576
09:51:45,596 --> 09:51:49,200
sneakers.
11577
09:51:47,276 --> 09:51:51,840
But these projects drained resources
11578
09:51:49,200 --> 09:51:57,360
without reinforcing the core product.
11579
09:51:51,840 --> 09:51:59,756
the brick. And between 1999 and 2003,
11580
09:51:57,360 --> 09:52:01,916
LEGO sales collapsed.
11581
09:51:59,756 --> 09:52:04,560
During these years, the company went
11582
09:52:01,916 --> 09:52:07,840
from doubledigit growth to struggling.
11583
09:52:04,560 --> 09:52:11,120
And by 2003, the company was losing the
11584
09:52:07,840 --> 09:52:14,080
equivalent of $1 million a day. In a
11585
09:52:11,120 --> 09:52:17,840
global toy market still worth more than
11586
09:52:14,080 --> 09:52:20,240
$70 billion US at the time, Lego, once
11587
09:52:17,840 --> 09:52:22,720
the king of the toy box, was only a few
11588
09:52:20,240 --> 09:52:25,840
steps away from bankruptcy.
11589
09:52:22,720 --> 09:52:30,080
Times were dark, but a spark of genius
11590
09:52:25,840 --> 09:52:32,400
appeared. In 1999, LEGO signed its first
11591
09:52:30,080 --> 09:52:34,240
ever licensing deal with no other than
11592
09:52:32,400 --> 09:52:37,360
Lucasfilm.
11593
09:52:34,240 --> 09:52:40,560
The timing was perfect. Star Wars
11594
09:52:37,360 --> 09:52:43,360
Episode 1 was about to hit theaters.
11595
09:52:40,560 --> 09:52:46,400
Hype was global and the first Lego Star
11596
09:52:43,360 --> 09:52:49,596
Wars sets were instant hits, not just
11597
09:52:46,400 --> 09:52:51,680
with children, with adults. Collectors
11598
09:52:49,596 --> 09:52:53,756
lined up to buy the X-wing, the
11599
09:52:51,680 --> 09:52:57,120
Snowspeeder, or the first Millennium
11600
09:52:53,756 --> 09:52:59,916
Falcon. For the first time in LEGO's
11601
09:52:57,120 --> 09:53:02,720
history, adults, including those in
11602
09:52:59,916 --> 09:53:03,596
their 30s and 40s, were buying sets for
11603
09:53:02,720 --> 09:53:05,520
themselves.
11604
09:53:03,596 --> 09:53:08,320
>> The adult fan of Lego community is
11605
09:53:05,520 --> 09:53:10,400
getting bigger. This is because Lego is
11606
09:53:08,320 --> 09:53:12,880
not the same as it was 20 or 30 years
11607
09:53:10,400 --> 09:53:15,200
ago.
11608
09:53:12,880 --> 09:53:17,040
Before, Lego was only seen as a toy to
11609
09:53:15,200 --> 09:53:20,040
play with when it was cold and you were
11610
09:53:17,040 --> 09:53:20,040
indoors.
11611
09:53:20,400 --> 09:53:25,200
Today, Lego is much more than a toy.
11612
09:53:22,800 --> 09:53:27,520
It's used to create logos to design
11613
09:53:25,200 --> 09:53:30,480
dynamic group activities. And it also
11614
09:53:27,520 --> 09:53:32,800
represents a shift in how we see it.
11615
09:53:30,480 --> 09:53:35,200
years ago, if you said you played with
11616
09:53:32,800 --> 09:53:37,596
Lego or built Lego, you almost had to
11617
09:53:35,200 --> 09:53:39,360
explain yourself that you were at home
11618
09:53:37,596 --> 09:53:42,160
playing with little figures making up
11619
09:53:39,360 --> 09:53:44,080
battles. What we do today is different.
11620
09:53:42,160 --> 09:53:47,756
We come together as a community of
11621
09:53:44,080 --> 09:53:49,596
adults, and Lego has recognized that.
11622
09:53:47,756 --> 09:53:51,916
That's why more and more products are
11623
09:53:49,596 --> 09:53:54,640
now designed specifically for adults,
11624
09:53:51,916 --> 09:53:57,640
more complex to build, and also more
11625
09:53:54,640 --> 09:53:57,640
expensive.
11626
09:53:58,720 --> 09:54:04,480
This kid demographic would later become
11627
09:54:01,436 --> 09:54:07,360
one of LEGO's most profitable segments.
11628
09:54:04,480 --> 09:54:10,640
More licenses followed Harry Potter,
11629
09:54:07,360 --> 09:54:12,560
Spider-Man, Batman, Indiana Jones, and
11630
09:54:10,640 --> 09:54:14,240
later the newest Marvel Cinematic
11631
09:54:12,560 --> 09:54:15,840
Universe.
11632
09:54:14,240 --> 09:54:19,276
Even though LEGO learned that
11633
09:54:15,840 --> 09:54:22,560
storytelling sells, in 2004, losses were
11634
09:54:19,276 --> 09:54:25,040
mounting and survival was uncertain.
11635
09:54:22,560 --> 09:54:26,560
And then the company made a radical
11636
09:54:25,040 --> 09:54:28,880
decision.
11637
09:54:26,560 --> 09:54:31,360
For the first time in its history, the
11638
09:54:28,880 --> 09:54:35,276
company appointed a CEO from outside the
11639
09:54:31,360 --> 09:54:38,880
Christensen family, Jurgen Victor, a
11640
09:54:35,276 --> 09:54:42,800
35-year-old former McKenzie consultant.
11641
09:54:38,880 --> 09:54:46,400
He was calm, precise, analytical,
11642
09:54:42,800 --> 09:54:50,240
and brutally honest. His diagnosis was
11643
09:54:46,400 --> 09:54:52,000
simple. Lego had forgotten what made it
11644
09:54:50,240 --> 09:54:54,240
Lego.
11645
09:54:52,000 --> 09:54:57,596
Kutto cut the number of unique elements
11646
09:54:54,240 --> 09:55:00,240
by nearly 50%. He sold off the theme
11647
09:54:57,596 --> 09:55:02,960
parks. He shut down unprofitable
11648
09:55:00,240 --> 09:55:06,080
production facilities. He centralized
11649
09:55:02,960 --> 09:55:07,680
supply chains, standardized materials,
11650
09:55:06,080 --> 09:55:10,880
and brought back discipline to the
11651
09:55:07,680 --> 09:55:15,560
system. But more important, he put the
11652
09:55:10,880 --> 09:55:15,560
brick back at the center of the company.
11653
09:55:17,276 --> 09:55:22,240
This turnaround didn't happen in
11654
09:55:19,120 --> 09:55:25,520
isolation. The global toy industry was
11655
09:55:22,240 --> 09:55:28,080
undergoing a seismic change. China was
11656
09:55:25,520 --> 09:55:30,640
producing nearly 75% of the world's
11657
09:55:28,080 --> 09:55:33,756
toys, being the largest manufacturing
11658
09:55:30,640 --> 09:55:35,840
consolidation in toy history.
11659
09:55:33,756 --> 09:55:38,480
Meanwhile, the United States had become
11660
09:55:35,840 --> 09:55:40,640
the single largest consumer, responsible
11661
09:55:38,480 --> 09:55:43,640
for nearly onethird of the global toy
11662
09:55:40,640 --> 09:55:43,640
spending.
11663
09:55:43,916 --> 09:55:50,000
By 2005, the toy market was worth close
11664
09:55:47,520 --> 09:55:53,436
to 80 billion US.
11665
09:55:50,000 --> 09:55:56,240
But it was brutally competitive as well.
11666
09:55:53,436 --> 09:55:58,800
Seasonality was extreme. Nearly half of
11667
09:55:56,240 --> 09:56:02,400
the annual toy sales occurred in just 3
11668
09:55:58,800 --> 09:56:05,520
months from October to December.
11669
09:56:02,400 --> 09:56:07,596
Companies lived or died by Christmas.
11670
09:56:05,520 --> 09:56:10,400
Mattel was battling declining Barbie
11671
09:56:07,596 --> 09:56:11,840
sales. Hasbro was betting its future on
11672
09:56:10,400 --> 09:56:13,436
Transformers and board game
11673
09:56:11,840 --> 09:56:15,276
reinventions.
11674
09:56:13,436 --> 09:56:18,160
Electronics were eating market share
11675
09:56:15,276 --> 09:56:22,640
across every age group. In this
11676
09:56:18,160 --> 09:56:28,596
scenario, LEGO rebuilt and refocused and
11677
09:56:22,640 --> 09:56:28,596
then began rising above all of them.
11678
09:56:31,756 --> 09:56:39,436
Between 2008 and 2015, LEGO entered a
11679
09:56:36,000 --> 09:56:42,240
new era, a renaissance driven by design,
11680
09:56:39,436 --> 09:56:44,320
storytelling, digital engagement, and
11681
09:56:42,240 --> 09:56:46,240
adult passion.
11682
09:56:44,320 --> 09:56:49,120
The company launched the ultimate
11683
09:56:46,240 --> 09:56:52,640
collector series, producing the largest,
11684
09:56:49,120 --> 09:56:54,880
most detailed models in toy history.
11685
09:56:52,640 --> 09:56:58,080
Lego architecture brought landmarks to
11686
09:56:54,880 --> 09:57:00,640
coffee tables. Modular buildings turned
11687
09:56:58,080 --> 09:57:02,800
living rooms into miniature cities, and
11688
09:57:00,640 --> 09:57:05,916
adults were no longer hiding their Lego
11689
09:57:02,800 --> 09:57:08,320
hobby, but embracing it. My story with
11690
09:57:05,916 --> 09:57:10,640
Lego began in the early 90s when I was a
11691
09:57:08,320 --> 09:57:12,960
small child.
11692
09:57:10,640 --> 09:57:14,640
I started playing but then I stopped for
11693
09:57:12,960 --> 09:57:16,320
a while.
11694
09:57:14,640 --> 09:57:18,720
This is what most of us want to do when
11695
09:57:16,320 --> 09:57:23,000
we are teenagers to do other hobbies and
11696
09:57:18,720 --> 09:57:23,000
spend less time playing with Lego.
11697
09:57:23,680 --> 09:57:28,960
After that when I was in my early 20s I
11698
09:57:25,840 --> 09:57:31,040
started collecting Lego. I met people
11699
09:57:28,960 --> 09:57:33,680
from the Valencian community and founded
11700
09:57:31,040 --> 09:57:35,520
Valre.
11701
09:57:33,680 --> 09:57:38,080
That eventually led me to a television
11702
09:57:35,520 --> 09:57:40,320
show where I took part and won. From
11703
09:57:38,080 --> 09:57:43,800
there, companies began approaching me to
11704
09:57:40,320 --> 09:57:43,800
develop projects.
11705
09:57:45,120 --> 09:57:48,800
At first, this hadn't even occurred to
11706
09:57:47,040 --> 09:57:51,200
me,
11707
09:57:48,800 --> 09:57:53,436
but I started to see a growing demand.
11708
09:57:51,200 --> 09:57:55,596
Whether it was building a corporate kit,
11709
09:57:53,436 --> 09:57:58,960
like a transport company's truck, or
11710
09:57:55,596 --> 09:58:00,640
even a company's logistics headquarters,
11711
09:57:58,960 --> 09:58:02,640
this market opened up a professional
11712
09:58:00,640 --> 09:58:04,640
path for me.
11713
09:58:02,640 --> 09:58:08,000
It supports me financially, but more
11714
09:58:04,640 --> 09:58:10,000
importantly, it's deeply rewarding.
11715
09:58:08,000 --> 09:58:11,596
Many of these projects challenge me to
11716
09:58:10,000 --> 09:58:13,120
build things I would never choose on my
11717
09:58:11,596 --> 09:58:15,840
own.
11718
09:58:13,120 --> 09:58:17,756
But once a challenge is set, build this,
11719
09:58:15,840 --> 09:58:20,560
my mind immediately starts collecting
11720
09:58:17,756 --> 09:58:22,560
ideas, figuring out how to shape them
11721
09:58:20,560 --> 09:58:26,360
and bring the project to life in the
11722
09:58:22,560 --> 09:58:26,360
best possible way.
11723
09:58:27,756 --> 09:58:33,840
The adult fans of Lego skyrocketed.
11724
09:58:30,960 --> 09:58:36,640
Forums, conventions, fan events,
11725
09:58:33,840 --> 09:58:40,880
engineering cups. A global movement
11726
09:58:36,640 --> 09:58:43,756
emerged. By 2014, adults accounted for
11727
09:58:40,880 --> 09:58:46,240
nearly onethird of LEGO sales.
11728
09:58:43,756 --> 09:58:48,480
>> To anyone who thinks Lego is only for
11729
09:58:46,240 --> 09:58:50,080
children, I'd say come and see the
11730
09:58:48,480 --> 09:58:51,916
exhibition.
11731
09:58:50,080 --> 09:58:54,720
See what we're capable of creating with
11732
09:58:51,916 --> 09:58:58,640
Lego pieces and how imagination develops
11733
09:58:54,720 --> 09:59:00,800
in both children and adults.
11734
09:58:58,640 --> 09:59:03,680
Children work within certain limits and
11735
09:59:00,800 --> 09:59:06,320
see things differently, but adults with
11736
09:59:03,680 --> 09:59:09,040
a wider range of colors, shapes, and
11737
09:59:06,320 --> 09:59:12,160
ways to use the pieces can explore just
11738
09:59:09,040 --> 09:59:14,160
how much is possible.
11739
09:59:12,160 --> 09:59:17,040
>> It was a radical shift in the economics
11740
09:59:14,160 --> 09:59:18,960
of play. And then came the cultural
11741
09:59:17,040 --> 09:59:22,000
explosion.
11742
09:59:18,960 --> 09:59:25,120
In 2014, The Lego Movie shattered
11743
09:59:22,000 --> 09:59:28,400
expectations, earning nearly $500
11744
09:59:25,120 --> 09:59:31,360
million US at the box office.
11745
09:59:28,400 --> 09:59:34,880
What started as a toy was now pop
11746
09:59:31,360 --> 09:59:37,040
culture. By the mid 2010s,
11747
09:59:34,880 --> 09:59:40,000
Lego was the world's most valuable toy
11748
09:59:37,040 --> 09:59:42,720
company, even surpassing Mattel, Hasbro,
11749
09:59:40,000 --> 09:59:45,200
and every other competitor.
11750
09:59:42,720 --> 09:59:48,720
The brick that started it all was no
11751
09:59:45,200 --> 09:59:51,720
longer just a product. It was a global
11752
09:59:48,720 --> 09:59:51,720
icon.
11753
09:59:53,596 --> 09:59:57,916
The LEGO Group stands today as one of
11754
09:59:55,916 --> 09:59:59,916
the most efficient, profitable, and
11755
09:59:57,916 --> 10:00:02,480
culturally influential toy companies on
11756
09:59:59,916 --> 10:00:04,720
Earth. Its factories run with near
11757
10:00:02,480 --> 10:00:06,880
perfect precision.
11758
10:00:04,720 --> 10:00:10,000
Its design teams develop thousands of
11759
10:00:06,880 --> 10:00:12,000
prototypes each year. Its supply chain
11760
10:00:10,000 --> 10:00:14,880
delivers billions of bricks that must
11761
10:00:12,000 --> 10:00:16,720
all fit together flawlessly across
11762
10:00:14,880 --> 10:00:19,360
decades.
11763
10:00:16,720 --> 10:00:23,436
In a global toy market worth roughly
11764
10:00:19,360 --> 10:00:27,680
$120 billion a year, Lego commands
11765
10:00:23,436 --> 10:00:30,640
nearly 9% of all worldwide toy sales. No
11766
10:00:27,680 --> 10:00:33,436
other toy brand, not Barbie, not Marvel
11767
10:00:30,640 --> 10:00:35,596
figures, not Nintendo merchandise,
11768
10:00:33,436 --> 10:00:39,360
maintains such consistency across
11769
10:00:35,596 --> 10:00:41,360
continents, genders, and generations.
11770
10:00:39,360 --> 10:00:44,480
And unlike most toy companies that
11771
10:00:41,360 --> 10:00:45,916
outsource manufacturing, LEGO controls a
11772
10:00:44,480 --> 10:00:49,040
significant portion of its own
11773
10:00:45,916 --> 10:00:51,596
production with major hubs in Denmark,
11774
10:00:49,040 --> 10:00:53,596
Hungary, Mexico, China, and the Czech
11775
10:00:51,596 --> 10:00:56,320
Republic.
11776
10:00:53,596 --> 10:00:58,880
This vertical integration reduces risk,
11777
10:00:56,320 --> 10:01:00,800
stabilizes quality, and protects one of
11778
10:00:58,880 --> 10:01:04,080
the most important values in the
11779
10:01:00,800 --> 10:01:06,400
company's DNA, precision.
11780
10:01:04,080 --> 10:01:08,720
Every Lego brick must be manufactured
11781
10:01:06,400 --> 10:01:11,840
with tolerances thinner than a strand of
11782
10:01:08,720 --> 10:01:15,360
hair. If the clutch is too tight, the
11783
10:01:11,840 --> 10:01:18,480
model breaks. If it's too loose, towers
11784
10:01:15,360 --> 10:01:22,000
collapse. Across billions of pieces,
11785
10:01:18,480 --> 10:01:25,360
perfection is not an ambition. It is an
11786
10:01:22,000 --> 10:01:27,360
engineering reality for LEGO.
11787
10:01:25,360 --> 10:01:29,520
This level of detail gives the company
11788
10:01:27,360 --> 10:01:32,160
one of the highest brand trust ratings
11789
10:01:29,520 --> 10:01:34,720
in the world. Parents know the bricks
11790
10:01:32,160 --> 10:01:37,520
will last. Adults know the sets will
11791
10:01:34,720 --> 10:01:39,840
impress. Collectors know the investment
11792
10:01:37,520 --> 10:01:42,080
will hold value.
11793
10:01:39,840 --> 10:01:44,800
The modern toy market is a machine of
11794
10:01:42,080 --> 10:01:46,560
impulse, tradition, celebration, and
11795
10:01:44,800 --> 10:01:48,480
nostalgia.
11796
10:01:46,560 --> 10:01:52,000
In 2025,
11797
10:01:48,480 --> 10:01:55,040
global spending on toys approaches 120
11798
10:01:52,000 --> 10:01:57,756
billion, nearly double what it was two
11799
10:01:55,040 --> 10:02:00,320
decades earlier. The United States
11800
10:01:57,756 --> 10:02:02,000
remains the world's largest consumer.
11801
10:02:00,320 --> 10:02:04,960
accounting for roughly onethird of
11802
10:02:02,000 --> 10:02:07,596
global sales. A typical American
11803
10:02:04,960 --> 10:02:11,680
household with children may spend $300
11804
10:02:07,596 --> 10:02:13,680
to $400 per child per year on toys. This
11805
10:02:11,680 --> 10:02:15,596
is more than five times the global
11806
10:02:13,680 --> 10:02:18,000
average.
11807
10:02:15,596 --> 10:02:20,240
Europe forms the second largest block
11808
10:02:18,000 --> 10:02:23,120
with strong purchasing power in Germany,
11809
10:02:20,240 --> 10:02:25,596
the United Kingdom, and France.
11810
10:02:23,120 --> 10:02:28,000
Asia-Pacific is rapidly growing,
11811
10:02:25,596 --> 10:02:30,960
especially in China, South Korea, and
11812
10:02:28,000 --> 10:02:33,680
Japan. driven by rising middle classes
11813
10:02:30,960 --> 10:02:36,080
and urban lifestyles.
11814
10:02:33,680 --> 10:02:39,436
But the most important shift of the last
11815
10:02:36,080 --> 10:02:42,436
decade is not geographic. It is
11816
10:02:39,436 --> 10:02:42,436
demographic.
11817
10:02:46,480 --> 10:02:51,596
Adults, once considered irrelevant to
11818
10:02:49,200 --> 10:02:54,400
the toy industry, are now one of the
11819
10:02:51,596 --> 10:02:57,520
most powerful forces. This growing
11820
10:02:54,400 --> 10:03:00,880
segment, commonly called the kid market,
11821
10:02:57,520 --> 10:03:03,756
now represents between 25 and 30% of all
11822
10:03:00,880 --> 10:03:06,320
toy purchases worldwide.
11823
10:03:03,756 --> 10:03:09,436
Adults buy toys for nostalgia, for
11824
10:03:06,320 --> 10:03:12,400
stress relief, for display, for
11825
10:03:09,436 --> 10:03:14,240
identity. Lego is the undisputed
11826
10:03:12,400 --> 10:03:16,640
champion of this movement.
11827
10:03:14,240 --> 10:03:19,960
>> Unlike other hobbies, Lego gives me a
11828
10:03:16,640 --> 10:03:19,960
sense of calm.
11829
10:03:21,120 --> 10:03:25,756
It lets me take ideas from my mind,
11830
10:03:23,436 --> 10:03:28,400
bring them to life, think them through,
11831
10:03:25,756 --> 10:03:30,720
and simply enjoy the process.
11832
10:03:28,400 --> 10:03:33,916
>> Right now, I'm trying to instill that in
11833
10:03:30,720 --> 10:03:35,916
my son to enjoy himself, to learn to see
11834
10:03:33,916 --> 10:03:37,756
colors and shapes, and to understand
11835
10:03:35,916 --> 10:03:39,916
that with imagination, anything is
11836
10:03:37,756 --> 10:03:43,200
possible.
11837
10:03:39,916 --> 10:03:45,756
Its premium sets, Technic Hypercars,
11838
10:03:43,200 --> 10:03:48,480
Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series,
11839
10:03:45,756 --> 10:03:50,800
iconic landmarks, regularly exceed
11840
10:03:48,480 --> 10:03:53,040
prices of $30,500,
11841
10:03:50,800 --> 10:03:55,840
even $800.
11842
10:03:53,040 --> 10:03:57,680
They sell out within hours. They hold
11843
10:03:55,840 --> 10:04:00,480
aftermarket values like fine
11844
10:03:57,680 --> 10:04:02,720
collectibles. This adult segment has
11845
10:04:00,480 --> 10:04:05,840
reshaped the entire financial landscape
11846
10:04:02,720 --> 10:04:08,880
of the company. It provides stability
11847
10:04:05,840 --> 10:04:12,160
when children's trends shift. It creates
11848
10:04:08,880 --> 10:04:14,240
recurring revenue from loyal fans and it
11849
10:04:12,160 --> 10:04:17,200
strengthens LEGO's position as a
11850
10:04:14,240 --> 10:04:20,160
crossgenerational brand, something few
11851
10:04:17,200 --> 10:04:22,480
toy companies have ever achieved.
11852
10:04:20,160 --> 10:04:25,436
Seasonality still dictates much of the
11853
10:04:22,480 --> 10:04:27,680
global toy market. Every year, nearly
11854
10:04:25,436 --> 10:04:31,040
half of all toy sales occur between
11855
10:04:27,680 --> 10:04:33,916
October and December. Companies live or
11856
10:04:31,040 --> 10:04:37,120
die by holiday forecasting, inventory
11857
10:04:33,916 --> 10:04:39,916
strategy, and shipment timing. But LEGO
11858
10:04:37,120 --> 10:04:42,720
has become the exception. Adult
11859
10:04:39,916 --> 10:04:45,120
collectors buy year round. Digital
11860
10:04:42,720 --> 10:04:48,160
experiences drive sales outside the
11861
10:04:45,120 --> 10:04:51,520
holiday season. Licensed launches create
11862
10:04:48,160 --> 10:04:54,160
anticipation even in slow quarters.
11863
10:04:51,520 --> 10:04:56,160
LEGO has effectively freed itself or at
11864
10:04:54,160 --> 10:04:58,240
least partially from the seasonal
11865
10:04:56,160 --> 10:05:00,960
dependency that has defined the toy
11866
10:04:58,240 --> 10:05:03,916
industry for over a century.
11867
10:05:00,960 --> 10:05:06,720
The brick is physical, tangible,
11868
10:05:03,916 --> 10:05:09,596
mechanical. But LEGO's success in the
11869
10:05:06,720 --> 10:05:14,400
21st century extends into digital
11870
10:05:09,596 --> 10:05:16,720
worlds. Star Wars, Batman, Marvel. These
11871
10:05:14,400 --> 10:05:20,000
games defined an entire generation of
11872
10:05:16,720 --> 10:05:22,560
familyfriendly titles. They sold tens of
11873
10:05:20,000 --> 10:05:25,756
millions of copies. They introduced
11874
10:05:22,560 --> 10:05:29,276
humor, storytelling, and simplicity to a
11875
10:05:25,756 --> 10:05:31,360
medium often dominated by complexity.
11876
10:05:29,276 --> 10:05:34,400
For many children born after the year
11877
10:05:31,360 --> 10:05:38,320
2000, Lego was not discovered in a toy
11878
10:05:34,400 --> 10:05:41,120
box, but on a screen. The cinematic leap
11879
10:05:38,320 --> 10:05:43,916
came in 2014 when the Lego movie
11880
10:05:41,120 --> 10:05:46,720
premiered to global acclaim. It earned
11881
10:05:43,916 --> 10:05:49,360
nearly half a billion dollars. Most
11882
10:05:46,720 --> 10:05:52,640
importantly, it reframed Lego as a
11883
10:05:49,360 --> 10:05:54,960
cultural idea, not a product. The film
11884
10:05:52,640 --> 10:05:58,240
taught a global audience that creativity
11885
10:05:54,960 --> 10:06:00,320
matters, that imperfection is beautiful,
11886
10:05:58,240 --> 10:06:04,080
that building and rebuilding are not
11887
10:06:00,320 --> 10:06:07,120
failures, they are the process of play.
11888
10:06:04,080 --> 10:06:09,360
Lego Batman expanded the concept. Lego
11889
10:06:07,120 --> 10:06:12,720
Ninjago created an entirely new
11890
10:06:09,360 --> 10:06:14,800
generation of fans and Lego Masters on
11891
10:06:12,720 --> 10:06:17,040
television turned building into a
11892
10:06:14,800 --> 10:06:19,840
competitive art form.
11893
10:06:17,040 --> 10:06:23,120
The brand had moved beyond toys, beyond
11894
10:06:19,840 --> 10:06:25,680
stories, beyond bricks. It had become
11895
10:06:23,120 --> 10:06:28,680
part of the cultural grammar of the 21st
11896
10:06:25,680 --> 10:06:28,680
century.
11897
10:06:32,320 --> 10:06:36,720
Long before STEM became a global
11898
10:06:34,480 --> 10:06:39,840
movement, Lego was already teaching
11899
10:06:36,720 --> 10:06:43,276
children how to think like engineers. In
11900
10:06:39,840 --> 10:06:45,756
the 1990s, Lego Mindstorms introduced
11901
10:06:43,276 --> 10:06:49,596
programmable robotics to students around
11902
10:06:45,756 --> 10:06:52,480
the world. Later sets we do, Spike
11903
10:06:49,596 --> 10:06:55,520
Prime, Boost brought coding, sensors,
11904
10:06:52,480 --> 10:06:58,160
and motors into classrooms and homes.
11905
10:06:55,520 --> 10:07:00,640
Today, LEGO Education works with
11906
10:06:58,160 --> 10:07:02,640
governments, schools, and universities
11907
10:07:00,640 --> 10:07:06,160
to bring hands-on learning to millions
11908
10:07:02,640 --> 10:07:08,880
of students. The philosophy is simple.
11909
10:07:06,160 --> 10:07:11,276
Children learn best through play. This
11910
10:07:08,880 --> 10:07:14,560
approach shapes future engineers,
11911
10:07:11,276 --> 10:07:16,160
designers, and problem solvers. It helps
11912
10:07:14,560 --> 10:07:18,960
children experiment in ways that
11913
10:07:16,160 --> 10:07:21,916
textbooks cannot. And it continues
11914
10:07:18,960 --> 10:07:24,000
Olirk's belief that play is not a
11915
10:07:21,916 --> 10:07:26,720
distraction from learning, but the
11916
10:07:24,000 --> 10:07:28,720
foundation of it.
11917
10:07:26,720 --> 10:07:29,520
In a world increasingly focused on
11918
10:07:28,720 --> 10:07:31,596
sustainability,
11919
10:07:29,520 --> 10:07:33,520
>> from my experience, what makes Lego
11920
10:07:31,596 --> 10:07:36,400
different from other construction toys
11921
10:07:33,520 --> 10:07:38,720
is its growing commitment to inclusion.
11922
10:07:36,400 --> 10:07:40,080
In recent years, LEGO has actively
11923
10:07:38,720 --> 10:07:42,320
embraced people with different
11924
10:07:40,080 --> 10:07:44,240
abilities. For example, by including
11925
10:07:42,320 --> 10:07:46,960
figures in wheelchairs and releasing
11926
10:07:44,240 --> 10:07:48,720
sets in braille. These are things most
11927
10:07:46,960 --> 10:07:50,880
other brands simply don't offer, but
11928
10:07:48,720 --> 10:07:53,040
LEGO does.
11929
10:07:50,880 --> 10:07:55,040
In addition, LEGO is strongly committed
11930
10:07:53,040 --> 10:07:56,640
to the environment.
11931
10:07:55,040 --> 10:07:58,880
They're producing more and more pieces
11932
10:07:56,640 --> 10:08:00,800
using recycled plastic and replacing
11933
10:07:58,880 --> 10:08:03,596
plastic packaging with paper to reduce
11934
10:08:00,800 --> 10:08:06,160
waste, something other brands simply
11935
10:08:03,596 --> 10:08:09,276
don't do.
11936
10:08:06,160 --> 10:08:11,756
LEGO faces a unique challenge. Its
11937
10:08:09,276 --> 10:08:14,160
bricks are made to last forever. A
11938
10:08:11,756 --> 10:08:17,916
blessing for creativity, but a concern
11939
10:08:14,160 --> 10:08:20,000
in an era of plastic waste. In response,
11940
10:08:17,916 --> 10:08:21,916
LEGO has invested hundreds of millions
11941
10:08:20,000 --> 10:08:24,080
of dollars into developing more
11942
10:08:21,916 --> 10:08:26,720
sustainable materials.
11943
10:08:24,080 --> 10:08:30,000
Plant-based polyethylene is already used
11944
10:08:26,720 --> 10:08:32,960
for leaves and trees. Recycled PT
11945
10:08:30,000 --> 10:08:35,436
prototypes continue to advance.
11946
10:08:32,960 --> 10:08:38,960
Recycled PET prototypes continue to
11947
10:08:35,436 --> 10:08:42,560
advance. New polymer engineering aims to
11948
10:08:38,960 --> 10:08:45,120
create bricks as durable as ABS without
11949
10:08:42,560 --> 10:08:48,400
the environmental cost.
11950
10:08:45,120 --> 10:08:50,560
This transition is not simple. A Lego
11951
10:08:48,400 --> 10:08:53,276
brick must interlock with perfect
11952
10:08:50,560 --> 10:08:55,360
precision. A fraction of a millimeter
11953
10:08:53,276 --> 10:08:57,200
can make the difference between wonder
11954
10:08:55,360 --> 10:08:59,840
and frustration.
11955
10:08:57,200 --> 10:09:02,240
But the mission is clear. A toy that
11956
10:08:59,840 --> 10:09:05,436
lasts forever should also protect the
11957
10:09:02,240 --> 10:09:09,120
world it is played in. Play is not a
11958
10:09:05,436 --> 10:09:10,720
luxury. Play is exploration. Play is
11959
10:09:09,120 --> 10:09:12,960
curiosity.
11960
10:09:10,720 --> 10:09:14,800
Play is the earliest form of human
11961
10:09:12,960 --> 10:09:16,960
creativity.
11962
10:09:14,800 --> 10:09:19,520
From wooden ducks in a small Danish
11963
10:09:16,960 --> 10:09:21,596
workshop to interlocking bricks that
11964
10:09:19,520 --> 10:09:24,880
span generations
11965
10:09:21,596 --> 10:09:27,756
to movies, video games, robotics, and
11966
10:09:24,880 --> 10:09:30,400
global fan communities. LEGO has
11967
10:09:27,756 --> 10:09:34,240
remained loyal to a simple truth. When
11968
10:09:30,400 --> 10:09:37,840
we build, we grow. When we imagine, we
11969
10:09:34,240 --> 10:09:40,840
expand. When we play, we become more
11970
10:09:37,840 --> 10:09:40,840
human.
11971
10:09:44,800 --> 10:09:50,560
More than a century ago, a carpenter
11972
10:09:47,520 --> 10:09:53,680
rebuilt his workshop after a fire. He
11973
10:09:50,560 --> 10:09:56,240
rebuilt it again after another. Not
11974
10:09:53,680 --> 10:09:58,720
because it was easy, but because he
11975
10:09:56,240 --> 10:10:02,080
believed in the power of making things
11976
10:09:58,720 --> 10:10:04,160
and in the power of play. Today,
11977
10:10:02,080 --> 10:10:07,756
billions of creations have risen from
11978
10:10:04,160 --> 10:10:09,596
that belief. Cities, castles,
11979
10:10:07,756 --> 10:10:11,596
spaceships,
11980
10:10:09,596 --> 10:10:14,800
dreams that exist nowhere else but in
11981
10:10:11,596 --> 10:10:17,840
the minds of the people who build them.
11982
10:10:14,800 --> 10:10:20,720
Lego is not perfect. It has faced
11983
10:10:17,840 --> 10:10:24,880
crises, challenges, and impossible
11984
10:10:20,720 --> 10:10:26,960
decisions. But it endures through war,
11985
10:10:24,880 --> 10:10:29,756
through technological revolutions,
11986
10:10:26,960 --> 10:10:32,880
through economic storms. Because
11987
10:10:29,756 --> 10:10:34,800
imagination always endures.
11988
10:10:32,880 --> 10:10:37,916
And as long as there are hands reaching
11989
10:10:34,800 --> 10:10:40,800
for bricks, as long as there are minds
11990
10:10:37,916 --> 10:10:43,680
to create, the legacy of Ole Ker
11991
10:10:40,800 --> 10:10:49,320
Christensen will continue.
11992
10:10:43,680 --> 10:10:49,320
Every dream starts with a single piece.
11993
10:12:15,436 --> 10:12:23,120
Jensen Huang, the software moat.
11994
10:12:19,756 --> 10:12:26,480
June 18th, 2024.
11995
10:12:23,120 --> 10:12:28,960
For a brief historic moment, the world
11996
10:12:26,480 --> 10:12:32,320
had a new king.
11997
10:12:28,960 --> 10:12:35,520
Jensen Hang, the co-founder and CEO of
11998
10:12:32,320 --> 10:12:38,720
Nvidia, stood at the peak of a $3.4
11999
10:12:35,520 --> 10:12:41,040
trillion mountain.
12000
10:12:38,720 --> 10:12:44,080
Analysts whispered that he wasn't just
12001
10:12:41,040 --> 10:12:47,680
leading a company. He was leading the
12002
10:12:44,080 --> 10:12:50,640
first entity destined for a $4 trillion
12003
10:12:47,680 --> 10:12:52,560
valuation.
12004
10:12:50,640 --> 10:12:56,000
But to understand the man in the leather
12005
10:12:52,560 --> 10:12:58,960
jacket, you cannot look at the triumph.
12006
10:12:56,000 --> 10:13:02,880
You must look at the fear.
12007
10:12:58,960 --> 10:13:07,040
Behind the 250% revenue jumps and the
12008
10:13:02,880 --> 10:13:10,160
soldout age 100 backlogs lies a leader
12009
10:13:07,040 --> 10:13:11,840
obsessed with the cyclical trap.
12010
10:13:10,160 --> 10:13:13,436
In the 60-year history of
12011
10:13:11,840 --> 10:13:16,240
semiconductors,
12012
10:13:13,436 --> 10:13:20,320
giants like Texas Instruments, Intel,
12013
10:13:16,240 --> 10:13:23,360
and Samsung have all held the crown only
12014
10:13:20,320 --> 10:13:26,400
to see it slip away.
12015
10:13:23,360 --> 10:13:31,120
Jensen's mission is simple. break the
12016
10:13:26,400 --> 10:13:34,240
cycle before it breaks him.
12017
10:13:31,120 --> 10:13:36,880
Flashback to September 1996.
12018
10:13:34,240 --> 10:13:39,276
The golden era of the internet is
12019
10:13:36,880 --> 10:13:43,276
dawning for everyone else but for
12020
10:13:39,276 --> 10:13:46,320
Nvidia. It is a death nail.
12021
10:13:43,276 --> 10:13:49,276
Their first chip, the NV1, is a
12022
10:13:46,320 --> 10:13:51,756
technical ghost rejected by Microsoft's
12023
10:13:49,276 --> 10:13:54,320
DirectX.
12024
10:13:51,756 --> 10:13:57,120
Jensen stands before a dwindling team
12025
10:13:54,320 --> 10:13:59,756
and delivers the most famous mantra in
12026
10:13:57,120 --> 10:14:03,680
Silicon Valley history.
12027
10:13:59,756 --> 10:14:07,276
We have exactly 30 days of oxygen left.
12028
10:14:03,680 --> 10:14:09,596
We are 30 days from bankruptcy.
12029
10:14:07,276 --> 10:14:12,000
How does a man go from cleaning toilets
12030
10:14:09,596 --> 10:14:14,000
in a Kentucky reform school to
12031
10:14:12,000 --> 10:14:17,040
controlling the foundational layer of
12032
10:14:14,000 --> 10:14:20,000
the global AI economy?
12033
10:14:17,040 --> 10:14:23,276
From a red leather booth at a Denny's to
12034
10:14:20,000 --> 10:14:25,520
a legal showdown in the US Supreme Court
12035
10:14:23,276 --> 10:14:27,360
over the very intellectual honesty of
12036
10:14:25,520 --> 10:14:30,000
his empire.
12037
10:14:27,360 --> 10:14:31,520
This is not just a story of silicon and
12038
10:14:30,000 --> 10:14:33,680
software.
12039
10:14:31,520 --> 10:14:35,916
This is the chronicle of the man who
12040
10:14:33,680 --> 10:14:37,520
decided to manufacture intelligence
12041
10:14:35,916 --> 10:14:41,040
itself.
12042
10:14:37,520 --> 10:14:44,560
This is Jensen Hang, the architect of
12043
10:14:41,040 --> 10:14:49,800
the digital brain.
12044
10:14:44,560 --> 10:14:49,800
Chapter 1. Forged in the chaos.
12045
10:14:49,916 --> 10:14:56,000
Nvidia was not born from abundance. Its
12046
10:14:53,436 --> 10:14:58,080
DNA was forged in the raw fires of
12047
10:14:56,000 --> 10:15:00,960
survival.
12048
10:14:58,080 --> 10:15:03,596
Jen's son Huang arrived in the United
12049
10:15:00,960 --> 10:15:07,040
States as a young migrant. But his
12050
10:15:03,596 --> 10:15:09,436
destination wasn't an elite prep school.
12051
10:15:07,040 --> 10:15:12,000
Due to a clerical misunderstanding by
12052
10:15:09,436 --> 10:15:15,200
his parents, he was sent to Onida
12053
10:15:12,000 --> 10:15:18,160
Baptist Institute in rural Kentucky, a
12054
10:15:15,200 --> 10:15:20,720
place that at the time functioned more
12055
10:15:18,160 --> 10:15:23,276
as a reform school for troubled youths
12056
10:15:20,720 --> 10:15:26,400
than a traditional academy.
12057
10:15:23,276 --> 10:15:28,480
At 9 years old, the future CEO of one of
12058
10:15:26,400 --> 10:15:30,960
the world's most valuable companies
12059
10:15:28,480 --> 10:15:34,400
wasn't coding. He was cleaning the
12060
10:15:30,960 --> 10:15:36,480
toilets of 150 teenagers every single
12061
10:15:34,400 --> 10:15:38,960
afternoon.
12062
10:15:36,480 --> 10:15:40,640
In his personal transcripts, Jensen
12063
10:15:38,960 --> 10:15:44,160
reflects on this with a chilling
12064
10:15:40,640 --> 10:15:46,560
stoicism. I didn't complain. I just
12065
10:15:44,160 --> 10:15:48,480
learned to work hard.
12066
10:15:46,560 --> 10:15:51,120
That boy learned the first law of
12067
10:15:48,480 --> 10:15:54,640
accelerated computing decades before it
12068
10:15:51,120 --> 10:15:57,276
existed. For a system to be efficient,
12069
10:15:54,640 --> 10:16:00,480
it must be able to process chaos under
12070
10:15:57,276 --> 10:16:03,520
extreme pressure.
12071
10:16:00,480 --> 10:16:05,916
By 15, Jensen was the most efficient
12072
10:16:03,520 --> 10:16:09,120
dishwasher and waiter at a Denny's in
12073
10:16:05,916 --> 10:16:11,520
Portland. I was incredibly shy, he
12074
10:16:09,120 --> 10:16:14,560
admits. But the chaos of the kitchen
12075
10:16:11,520 --> 10:16:17,040
forced me out of my shell.
12076
10:16:14,560 --> 10:16:20,640
It is no coincidence that Nvidia was
12077
10:16:17,040 --> 10:16:23,360
founded in 1993 inside a booth at that
12078
10:16:20,640 --> 10:16:25,596
very same restaurant chain.
12079
10:16:23,360 --> 10:16:28,400
While the world saw the dawn of the PC
12080
10:16:25,596 --> 10:16:32,000
as an office tool for spreadsheets,
12081
10:16:28,400 --> 10:16:35,916
Jensen, Chris Mahovski, and Curtis Pim
12082
10:16:32,000 --> 10:16:40,240
saw a fatal weakness.
12083
10:16:35,916 --> 10:16:43,360
In 1993, Intel's generalpurpose CPU was
12084
10:16:40,240 --> 10:16:46,320
hitting a physical wall. If the future
12085
10:16:43,360 --> 10:16:48,320
of computing was visual and immersive,
12086
10:16:46,320 --> 10:16:50,400
the traditional serial architecture
12087
10:16:48,320 --> 10:16:52,160
would become the bottleneck of human
12088
10:16:50,400 --> 10:16:55,596
progress.
12089
10:16:52,160 --> 10:16:58,720
With only $40,000 in startup capital,
12090
10:16:55,596 --> 10:17:01,200
they founded Nvidia to chase a ghost,
12091
10:16:58,720 --> 10:17:03,120
accelerated computing.
12092
10:17:01,200 --> 10:17:06,160
They bet on a market the rest of the
12093
10:17:03,120 --> 10:17:09,916
industry dismissed as a niche for toys,
12094
10:17:06,160 --> 10:17:13,080
video games. Before Jensen, video games
12095
10:17:09,916 --> 10:17:13,080
were the
12096
10:17:16,480 --> 10:17:23,680
By 1995, Nvidia's first massive bet, the
12097
10:17:20,720 --> 10:17:26,320
NV1 chip, was ready to conquer the
12098
10:17:23,680 --> 10:17:29,276
market. But Jensen Huang had made a
12099
10:17:26,320 --> 10:17:30,880
catastrophic technical gamble.
12100
10:17:29,276 --> 10:17:34,160
At a time when the industry was
12101
10:17:30,880 --> 10:17:36,560
undecided, he bet on quadratic texture
12102
10:17:34,160 --> 10:17:39,840
mapping, a method that used curved
12103
10:17:36,560 --> 10:17:42,320
surfaces to create 3D images.
12104
10:17:39,840 --> 10:17:45,756
It was mathematically intelligent, but
12105
10:17:42,320 --> 10:17:47,756
it was a lonely path. The industry
12106
10:17:45,756 --> 10:17:51,276
hammer dropped when Microsoft released
12107
10:17:47,756 --> 10:17:54,240
its first DirectX API. Microsoft chose
12108
10:17:51,276 --> 10:17:56,960
triangles, not quads, as the universal
12109
10:17:54,240 --> 10:17:58,800
language for PC gaming.
12110
10:17:56,960 --> 10:18:02,320
This decision rendered Nvidia's
12111
10:17:58,800 --> 10:18:05,520
technology instantly obsolete.
12112
10:18:02,320 --> 10:18:09,200
The NV1 wasn't just a failure, it was a
12113
10:18:05,520 --> 10:18:12,080
dead end. The company was bleeding cash
12114
10:18:09,200 --> 10:18:17,400
and as Jensen famously put it, they were
12115
10:18:12,080 --> 10:18:17,400
staring at exactly 30 days of oxygen.
12116
10:18:17,916 --> 10:18:23,120
Nvidia's only lifeline was a strategic
12117
10:18:20,560 --> 10:18:24,960
contract with the Japanese giant Sega to
12118
10:18:23,120 --> 10:18:26,320
build the graphics engine for the Sega
12119
10:18:24,960 --> 10:18:28,480
Saturn.
12120
10:18:26,320 --> 10:18:30,720
But Jensen was trapped in a moral and
12121
10:18:28,480 --> 10:18:32,880
business dilemma.
12122
10:18:30,720 --> 10:18:35,520
He knew that if they continued building
12123
10:18:32,880 --> 10:18:37,436
the chip for Sega using Nvidia's flawed
12124
10:18:35,520 --> 10:18:39,360
quad technology,
12125
10:18:37,436 --> 10:18:42,080
Sega would lose the console war to
12126
10:18:39,360 --> 10:18:45,360
Sony's PlayStation and Nvidia would
12127
10:18:42,080 --> 10:18:48,080
eventually perish anyway. In an act of
12128
10:18:45,360 --> 10:18:51,040
intellectual honesty, or as many at the
12129
10:18:48,080 --> 10:18:54,480
time called corporate suicide, Jensen
12130
10:18:51,040 --> 10:18:58,240
flew to Japan. He sat across from Shy
12131
10:18:54,480 --> 10:19:01,596
Chiro Inimiri, the CEO of Sega, and told
12132
10:18:58,240 --> 10:19:04,240
him the brutal truth. Our technology is
12133
10:19:01,596 --> 10:19:06,720
on the wrong path. If we finish this
12134
10:19:04,240 --> 10:19:08,800
project, you will produce an inferior
12135
10:19:06,720 --> 10:19:11,680
product.
12136
10:19:08,800 --> 10:19:14,080
Jensen asked for the impossible. He
12137
10:19:11,680 --> 10:19:16,560
asked Sega to terminate the contract,
12138
10:19:14,080 --> 10:19:19,520
but to pay the remaining $5 million
12139
10:19:16,560 --> 10:19:22,000
anyway. If you don't pay us, Jensen
12140
10:19:19,520 --> 10:19:23,916
pleaded, Nvidia will cease to exist
12141
10:19:22,000 --> 10:19:26,320
tomorrow.
12142
10:19:23,916 --> 10:19:29,840
To the astonishment of the tech world,
12143
10:19:26,320 --> 10:19:32,480
Idlimiri son agreed. He didn't pay for a
12144
10:19:29,840 --> 10:19:34,880
working chip. He paid for Jensen's
12145
10:19:32,480 --> 10:19:37,756
integrity.
12146
10:19:34,880 --> 10:19:40,240
That $5 million was the most expensive
12147
10:19:37,756 --> 10:19:43,040
oxygen in history.
12148
10:19:40,240 --> 10:19:45,436
To make it last, Jensen had to fire half
12149
10:19:43,040 --> 10:19:47,360
of his workforce. These weren't just
12150
10:19:45,436 --> 10:19:50,160
employees. They were friends who had
12151
10:19:47,360 --> 10:19:52,160
shared the Denny's dream. This trauma
12152
10:19:50,160 --> 10:19:55,436
institutionalized a permanent state of
12153
10:19:52,160 --> 10:19:58,240
emergency at Nvidia.
12154
10:19:55,436 --> 10:20:02,240
With the remaining team, Jensen funneled
12155
10:19:58,240 --> 10:20:05,040
every scent into the Reva 128. They
12156
10:20:02,240 --> 10:20:07,520
abandoned quads and embraced Microsoft's
12157
10:20:05,040 --> 10:20:13,040
triangles with a vengeance. When it
12158
10:20:07,520 --> 10:20:16,320
launched in 1997, the Reva 128 was 400%
12159
10:20:13,040 --> 10:20:19,520
faster than anything else on the market.
12160
10:20:16,320 --> 10:20:22,480
It was a dive catch of epic proportions.
12161
10:20:19,520 --> 10:20:25,436
Nvidia was no longer just a survivor. It
12162
10:20:22,480 --> 10:20:28,320
had become a hunter.
12163
10:20:25,436 --> 10:20:31,680
But as Jensen looked at the horizon, he
12164
10:20:28,320 --> 10:20:35,960
saw 70 rivals waiting to kill him. The
12165
10:20:31,680 --> 10:20:35,960
war was only beginning.
12166
10:20:41,120 --> 10:20:46,960
The success of the Reval 128 was a dive
12167
10:20:44,400 --> 10:20:49,436
catch. But it placed Nvidia in the
12168
10:20:46,960 --> 10:20:52,960
middle of a slaughterhouse.
12169
10:20:49,436 --> 10:20:55,200
By 1997, there were over 70 companies
12170
10:20:52,960 --> 10:20:56,720
fighting for the soul of the 3D graphics
12171
10:20:55,200 --> 10:20:58,720
market.
12172
10:20:56,720 --> 10:21:01,916
It was a commodity war where price
12173
10:20:58,720 --> 10:21:04,160
cutting was the only weapon for most.
12174
10:21:01,916 --> 10:21:06,400
Jensen Hang realized that if Nvidia
12175
10:21:04,160 --> 10:21:10,000
played by the industry's rules, they
12176
10:21:06,400 --> 10:21:13,276
would eventually be ground into dust.
12177
10:21:10,000 --> 10:21:15,200
He decided to break the laws of time.
12178
10:21:13,276 --> 10:21:18,560
The industry standard for developing a
12179
10:21:15,200 --> 10:21:21,756
new chip was 18 to 24 months. Following
12180
10:21:18,560 --> 10:21:24,080
the steady beat of Moore's law, Jensen
12181
10:21:21,756 --> 10:21:27,120
gathered his engineers and imposed a
12182
10:21:24,080 --> 10:21:29,756
suicidal mandate. Nvidia would release a
12183
10:21:27,120 --> 10:21:33,520
brand new groundbreaking architecture
12184
10:21:29,756 --> 10:21:35,520
every 6 months.
12185
10:21:33,520 --> 10:21:37,120
It was a strategy of relentless
12186
10:21:35,520 --> 10:21:40,560
execution.
12187
10:21:37,120 --> 10:21:43,756
By the time a competitor like 3dfx or S3
12188
10:21:40,560 --> 10:21:46,800
could react to one Nvidia chip, Jensen
12189
10:21:43,756 --> 10:21:48,960
had already launched two more. This
12190
10:21:46,800 --> 10:21:51,200
forced the competition into a permanent
12191
10:21:48,960 --> 10:21:54,160
state of obsolescence.
12192
10:21:51,200 --> 10:21:56,560
To achieve this, Nvidia had to reinvent
12193
10:21:54,160 --> 10:21:59,120
its internal engineering, running
12194
10:21:56,560 --> 10:22:01,200
multiple design teams in parallel, a
12195
10:21:59,120 --> 10:22:03,120
massive financial risk that pushed the
12196
10:22:01,200 --> 10:22:07,680
company to the edge of its operational
12197
10:22:03,120 --> 10:22:13,756
capacity. In 1999, the war reached its
12198
10:22:07,680 --> 10:22:16,400
climax. Nvidia released the GeForce 256.
12199
10:22:13,756 --> 10:22:18,560
Jensen didn't just market it as a faster
12200
10:22:16,400 --> 10:22:22,640
card. He coined a term that would
12201
10:22:18,560 --> 10:22:25,520
redefine computing history. The GPU,
12202
10:22:22,640 --> 10:22:28,640
graphics processing unit. This wasn't
12203
10:22:25,520 --> 10:22:30,320
just branding. Technically, the GeForce
12204
10:22:28,640 --> 10:22:32,240
256
12205
10:22:30,320 --> 10:22:34,240
moved the transformer lighting
12206
10:22:32,240 --> 10:22:37,596
calculations. the most heavy
12207
10:22:34,240 --> 10:22:40,480
mathematical lifting of 3D off the CPU
12208
10:22:37,596 --> 10:22:43,840
and onto the chip itself. It was the
12209
10:22:40,480 --> 10:22:46,640
birth of a new era. This performance
12210
10:22:43,840 --> 10:22:48,240
leap was so massive that Nvidia secured
12211
10:22:46,640 --> 10:22:51,120
the prestigious contract for the
12212
10:22:48,240 --> 10:22:55,840
original Microsoft Xbox, receiving a
12213
10:22:51,120 --> 10:22:58,880
crucial $200 million advance.
12214
10:22:55,840 --> 10:23:01,520
The 6-month cycle worked. By the early
12215
10:22:58,880 --> 10:23:05,840
2000s, the 70 competitors had been
12216
10:23:01,520 --> 10:23:08,720
reduced to just two. Nvidia and ATI.
12217
10:23:05,840 --> 10:23:11,040
In a final act of dominance, Nvidia
12218
10:23:08,720 --> 10:23:15,596
acquired the assets of its former idol
12219
10:23:11,040 --> 10:23:18,800
and arch rival 3dfx in 2000.
12220
10:23:15,596 --> 10:23:22,320
Jensen had cleared the board. He was the
12221
10:23:18,800 --> 10:23:24,960
undisputed king of gaming. But at the
12222
10:23:22,320 --> 10:23:26,720
very moment of his greatest triumph, he
12223
10:23:24,960 --> 10:23:29,360
began to look at the high performance
12224
10:23:26,720 --> 10:23:31,756
computing market. He realized that the
12225
10:23:29,360 --> 10:23:34,720
GPU's massive parallel math could do
12226
10:23:31,756 --> 10:23:37,756
more than just draw pixels. It could
12227
10:23:34,720 --> 10:23:41,276
solve the world's most complex problems.
12228
10:23:37,756 --> 10:23:45,560
The seeds of CUDA and the $10 billion
12229
10:23:41,276 --> 10:23:45,560
gamble were being planted.
12230
10:23:50,880 --> 10:23:58,000
By 2006, Nvidia was the undisputed king
12231
10:23:54,640 --> 10:24:00,320
of the gaming world. But Jensen Hang was
12232
10:23:58,000 --> 10:24:02,480
restless. He realized that the same
12233
10:24:00,320 --> 10:24:05,120
parallel processing power that rendered
12234
10:24:02,480 --> 10:24:07,040
pixels for World of Warcraft could be
12235
10:24:05,120 --> 10:24:09,520
used to solve the world's most complex
12236
10:24:07,040 --> 10:24:13,200
mathematical problems.
12237
10:24:09,520 --> 10:24:15,916
He launched CUDA, compute unified device
12238
10:24:13,200 --> 10:24:19,360
architecture. It was a declaration of
12239
10:24:15,916 --> 10:24:22,240
war against the CPUcentric world.
12240
10:24:19,360 --> 10:24:25,040
The goal was simple yet insane.
12241
10:24:22,240 --> 10:24:27,916
transform every NVIDIA GPU into a
12242
10:24:25,040 --> 10:24:30,000
generalpurpose supercomput.
12243
10:24:27,916 --> 10:24:33,840
But this decision came with a staggering
12244
10:24:30,000 --> 10:24:36,400
cost. Jensen mandated that every single
12245
10:24:33,840 --> 10:24:38,480
GPU Nvidia manufactured from the
12246
10:24:36,400 --> 10:24:41,120
high-end workstation cards to the
12247
10:24:38,480 --> 10:24:43,596
cheapest laptop chips must include the
12248
10:24:41,120 --> 10:24:46,000
extra transistors and hardware logic to
12249
10:24:43,596 --> 10:24:49,596
support CUDA.
12250
10:24:46,000 --> 10:24:52,160
Wall Street was horrified.
12251
10:24:49,596 --> 10:24:55,276
For nearly a decade, Nvidia spent
12252
10:24:52,160 --> 10:24:58,560
billions, estimated at over 10 billion
12253
10:24:55,276 --> 10:25:01,756
dollars in cumulative R&D on a software
12254
10:24:58,560 --> 10:25:03,756
platform that almost no one was using.
12255
10:25:01,756 --> 10:25:06,160
Profit margins, which once sat
12256
10:25:03,756 --> 10:25:08,720
comfortably high, were sacrificed at the
12257
10:25:06,160 --> 10:25:11,680
altar of this vision.
12258
10:25:08,720 --> 10:25:15,200
Analysts mocked the strategy, calling it
12259
10:25:11,680 --> 10:25:18,000
the bridge to nowhere. During the 2008
12260
10:25:15,200 --> 10:25:20,640
financial crisis, Nvidia's market cap
12261
10:25:18,000 --> 10:25:23,756
plummeted and the company was once again
12262
10:25:20,640 --> 10:25:25,436
staring into the abyss.
12263
10:25:23,756 --> 10:25:28,320
But Jensen wasn't just building
12264
10:25:25,436 --> 10:25:31,360
hardware. He was building a software
12265
10:25:28,320 --> 10:25:33,916
moat. He sent Nvidia engineers to
12266
10:25:31,360 --> 10:25:36,080
universities around the world, helping
12267
10:25:33,916 --> 10:25:38,160
professors teach parallel programming
12268
10:25:36,080 --> 10:25:40,720
using CUDA.
12269
10:25:38,160 --> 10:25:43,360
He was seeding the ground. While
12270
10:25:40,720 --> 10:25:46,320
competitors like Intel and AMD focused
12271
10:25:43,360 --> 10:25:48,880
on making faster chips, Jensen was
12272
10:25:46,320 --> 10:25:51,276
building an entire language.
12273
10:25:48,880 --> 10:25:53,756
By the time a developer learned CUDA,
12274
10:25:51,276 --> 10:25:55,840
they were locked in. Switching to a
12275
10:25:53,756 --> 10:25:58,240
competitor wouldn't just mean buying a
12276
10:25:55,840 --> 10:26:01,680
new chip. It would mean rewriting
12277
10:25:58,240 --> 10:26:04,800
millions of lines of code.
12278
10:26:01,680 --> 10:26:07,436
Year after year, Jensen defended CUDA in
12279
10:26:04,800 --> 10:26:09,596
boardrooms and earning calls. He
12280
10:26:07,436 --> 10:26:11,916
practiced what he calls long-term
12281
10:26:09,596 --> 10:26:14,720
commitment to a vision even when the
12282
10:26:11,916 --> 10:26:17,040
data didn't yet support it. He was
12283
10:26:14,720 --> 10:26:18,560
waiting for a killer app for accelerated
12284
10:26:17,040 --> 10:26:20,960
computing.
12285
10:26:18,560 --> 10:26:23,436
He didn't know what it would be. But he
12286
10:26:20,960 --> 10:26:25,840
knew that as data grew exponentially,
12287
10:26:23,436 --> 10:26:27,916
the serial processing of the CPU would
12288
10:26:25,840 --> 10:26:30,320
eventually fail.
12289
10:26:27,916 --> 10:26:32,160
The silence of the Cuda winter was about
12290
10:26:30,320 --> 10:26:35,120
to be broken.
12291
10:26:32,160 --> 10:26:38,320
In a lab at the University of Toronto, a
12292
10:26:35,120 --> 10:26:40,800
PhD student named Alex Kreski was about
12293
10:26:38,320 --> 10:26:43,840
to feed a neural network called Alexet
12294
10:26:40,800 --> 10:26:46,240
into those Nvidia GPUs.
12295
10:26:43,840 --> 10:26:49,360
The big bang of artificial intelligence
12296
10:26:46,240 --> 10:26:51,756
was seconds away, and Jensen Huang was
12297
10:26:49,360 --> 10:26:56,200
the only person on Earth who had already
12298
10:26:51,756 --> 10:26:56,200
built the engine to power it.
12299
10:27:01,680 --> 10:27:07,436
The year was 2012. While the world saw
12300
10:27:05,040 --> 10:27:09,680
just another academic competition,
12301
10:27:07,436 --> 10:27:12,320
Jensen Hang saw the spark that would
12302
10:27:09,680 --> 10:27:15,596
ignite a global revolution.
12303
10:27:12,320 --> 10:27:18,960
A neural network called AlexNet, powered
12304
10:27:15,596 --> 10:27:22,240
by NVIDIA GPUs, crushed the competition
12305
10:27:18,960 --> 10:27:24,800
in image recognition. It was the big
12306
10:27:22,240 --> 10:27:27,596
bang of deep learning.
12307
10:27:24,800 --> 10:27:30,720
Jensen didn't just celebrate, he pivoted
12308
10:27:27,596 --> 10:27:33,840
the entire company. He realized that the
12309
10:27:30,720 --> 10:27:38,080
$10 billion gamble on CUDA had finally
12310
10:27:33,840 --> 10:27:40,400
found its soul, artificial intelligence.
12311
10:27:38,080 --> 10:27:42,640
This pivot transformed Nvidia from a
12312
10:27:40,400 --> 10:27:44,720
graphics card company into the
12313
10:27:42,640 --> 10:27:47,756
foundational engine of the world's most
12314
10:27:44,720 --> 10:27:49,596
powerful data centers.
12315
10:27:47,756 --> 10:27:52,720
Jensen's vision was no longer about
12316
10:27:49,596 --> 10:27:54,240
drawing pixels. It was about generative
12317
10:27:52,720 --> 10:27:57,040
AI.
12318
10:27:54,240 --> 10:27:58,560
By the time Chat GPT launched in late
12319
10:27:57,040 --> 10:28:01,276
2022,
12320
10:27:58,560 --> 10:28:03,040
Nvidia didn't just have a head start.
12321
10:28:01,276 --> 10:28:06,040
They were the only ones at the starting
12322
10:28:03,040 --> 10:28:06,040
line.
12323
10:28:06,080 --> 10:28:10,960
Jensen acted with a speed that terrified
12324
10:28:08,320 --> 10:28:14,000
his competitors. He didn't just wait for
12325
10:28:10,960 --> 10:28:15,596
orders. He re-engineered Nvidia's entire
12326
10:28:14,000 --> 10:28:18,560
road map.
12327
10:28:15,596 --> 10:28:21,276
In 2016, he personally delivered the
12328
10:28:18,560 --> 10:28:24,080
first Nvidia DGX1,
12329
10:28:21,276 --> 10:28:26,880
the world's first AI supercomput in a
12330
10:28:24,080 --> 10:28:30,960
box to a then small nonprofit called
12331
10:28:26,880 --> 10:28:34,520
Open AAI. He was very clear, this will
12332
10:28:30,960 --> 10:28:34,520
change the world.
12333
10:28:35,200 --> 10:28:38,560
Technically, this period was about
12334
10:28:37,040 --> 10:28:40,960
specialization.
12335
10:28:38,560 --> 10:28:43,756
Nvidia began adding tensor cores to its
12336
10:28:40,960 --> 10:28:45,436
chips. These weren't for graphics. They
12337
10:28:43,756 --> 10:28:47,360
were designed specifically for the deep
12338
10:28:45,436 --> 10:28:49,120
learning math that powers neural
12339
10:28:47,360 --> 10:28:51,040
networks.
12340
10:28:49,120 --> 10:28:53,596
Nvidia was no longer just making a
12341
10:28:51,040 --> 10:28:55,756
faster graphics card. It was building a
12342
10:28:53,596 --> 10:28:59,756
specialized brain.
12343
10:28:55,756 --> 10:29:02,080
By 2017, the momentum was unstoppable.
12344
10:28:59,756 --> 10:29:04,320
Every major tech giant was building AI
12345
10:29:02,080 --> 10:29:06,560
labs and they all had one thing in
12346
10:29:04,320 --> 10:29:08,240
common. They were built on Nvidia's
12347
10:29:06,560 --> 10:29:10,400
stack.
12348
10:29:08,240 --> 10:29:12,960
This was the era when the software mode
12349
10:29:10,400 --> 10:29:14,400
became a fortress. Thousands of
12350
10:29:12,960 --> 10:29:17,680
researchers were now writing their
12351
10:29:14,400 --> 10:29:19,596
doctoral thesis on CUDA.
12352
10:29:17,680 --> 10:29:22,000
If a competitor wanted to challenge
12353
10:29:19,596 --> 10:29:24,560
Nvidia, they wouldn't just need a better
12354
10:29:22,000 --> 10:29:27,120
chip. They would have to convince the
12355
10:29:24,560 --> 10:29:30,000
world's brightest minds to forget
12356
10:29:27,120 --> 10:29:32,720
everything they had learned.
12357
10:29:30,000 --> 10:29:35,916
But as the AI revolution took hold, an
12358
10:29:32,720 --> 10:29:38,400
unexpected shadow emerged. The new craze
12359
10:29:35,916 --> 10:29:41,120
called Bitcoin and Ethereum began to
12360
10:29:38,400 --> 10:29:44,160
consume Nvidia's supply.
12361
10:29:41,120 --> 10:29:47,840
To the world, Nvidia looked invincible,
12362
10:29:44,160 --> 10:29:49,520
but internally Jensen was wary. Jensen
12363
10:29:47,840 --> 10:29:51,120
knew that every bubble eventually
12364
10:29:49,520 --> 10:29:53,436
bursts.
12365
10:29:51,120 --> 10:29:55,756
This period of explosive accidental
12366
10:29:53,436 --> 10:29:58,880
growth from crypto miners was creating a
12367
10:29:55,756 --> 10:30:01,120
shadow over the company's true mission,
12368
10:29:58,880 --> 10:30:04,000
setting the stage for a highstakes legal
12369
10:30:01,120 --> 10:30:05,916
battle over corporate transparency and a
12370
10:30:04,000 --> 10:30:09,880
financial storm that would test the very
12371
10:30:05,916 --> 10:30:09,880
foundations of his leadership.
12372
10:30:13,596 --> 10:30:19,596
In 2018, Nvidia was riding a wave that
12373
10:30:17,040 --> 10:30:22,720
looked like a miracle, but felt like a
12374
10:30:19,596 --> 10:30:24,800
mirage. The explosion of cryptocurrency
12375
10:30:22,720 --> 10:30:27,436
mining had created an insatiable hunger
12376
10:30:24,800 --> 10:30:30,080
for GeForce cards.
12377
10:30:27,436 --> 10:30:33,120
To the outside world, Nvidia's revenue
12378
10:30:30,080 --> 10:30:35,276
was reaching historic heights. However,
12379
10:30:33,120 --> 10:30:38,160
beneath the surface, a dangerous
12380
10:30:35,276 --> 10:30:40,160
ambiguity was growing. Jensen Huang
12381
10:30:38,160 --> 10:30:42,880
insisted that the growth was driven by a
12382
10:30:40,160 --> 10:30:46,800
gaming renaissance, but the reality was
12383
10:30:42,880 --> 10:30:48,880
more volatile. The mirage evaporated in
12384
10:30:46,800 --> 10:30:51,680
late 2018.
12385
10:30:48,880 --> 10:30:55,200
The crypto winter arrived and the demand
12386
10:30:51,680 --> 10:30:57,120
for mining chips vanished overnight.
12387
10:30:55,200 --> 10:30:59,436
Nvidia was left with a massive surplus
12388
10:30:57,120 --> 10:31:02,080
of inventory and the market's reaction
12389
10:30:59,436 --> 10:31:06,320
was brutal. The company's stock price
12390
10:31:02,080 --> 10:31:08,880
plummeted by 28% in a single day.
12391
10:31:06,320 --> 10:31:12,880
The invincible architect of AI was
12392
10:31:08,880 --> 10:31:14,640
suddenly facing a crisis of credibility.
12393
10:31:12,880 --> 10:31:16,400
This financial collapse ignited a
12394
10:31:14,640 --> 10:31:18,240
highstakes legal battle that would
12395
10:31:16,400 --> 10:31:20,240
eventually reach the steps of the US
12396
10:31:18,240 --> 10:31:22,560
Supreme Court.
12397
10:31:20,240 --> 10:31:25,040
A group of institutional investors filed
12398
10:31:22,560 --> 10:31:27,520
a class action lawsuit alleging that
12399
10:31:25,040 --> 10:31:30,400
Jensen Huang had deliberately misled the
12400
10:31:27,520 --> 10:31:33,200
market. The core of the case rested on a
12401
10:31:30,400 --> 10:31:34,720
single devastating word,
12402
10:31:33,200 --> 10:31:37,120
ci
12403
10:31:34,720 --> 10:31:39,596
intent to deceive.
12404
10:31:37,120 --> 10:31:41,596
The accusation was sharp. Investors
12405
10:31:39,596 --> 10:31:43,840
claimed that internal Nvidia reports
12406
10:31:41,596 --> 10:31:46,320
clearly showed over a billion dollars in
12407
10:31:43,840 --> 10:31:49,120
revenue attributed to gamers was
12408
10:31:46,320 --> 10:31:51,360
actually coming from crypto miners.
12409
10:31:49,120 --> 10:31:53,596
Jensen fought back, defending his
12410
10:31:51,360 --> 10:31:55,680
intellectual honesty and arguing that
12411
10:31:53,596 --> 10:31:58,720
the expert opinions used against him
12412
10:31:55,680 --> 10:32:01,120
were nothing more than speculation.
12413
10:31:58,720 --> 10:32:03,436
This battle known as petition number
12414
10:32:01,120 --> 10:32:05,520
23-970
12415
10:32:03,436 --> 10:32:08,240
became a landmark moment for Silicon
12416
10:32:05,520 --> 10:32:10,240
Valley, questioning how much a CEO must
12417
10:32:08,240 --> 10:32:12,160
disclose when their technology
12418
10:32:10,240 --> 10:32:15,276
accidentally conquers a market they
12419
10:32:12,160 --> 10:32:17,680
didn't intend to lead.
12420
10:32:15,276 --> 10:32:19,520
While lawyers argued in Washington,
12421
10:32:17,680 --> 10:32:22,320
Jensen was already looking past the
12422
10:32:19,520 --> 10:32:24,720
wreckage. He didn't let the legal storm
12423
10:32:22,320 --> 10:32:27,276
or the inventory crisis slowed down his
12424
10:32:24,720 --> 10:32:29,916
ultimate plan. He doubled down on the
12425
10:32:27,276 --> 10:32:32,480
data center, acquiring Melanox for $7
12426
10:32:29,916 --> 10:32:34,240
billion to control the highways between
12427
10:32:32,480 --> 10:32:36,240
his chips.
12428
10:32:34,240 --> 10:32:38,800
He was preparing for a world where AI
12429
10:32:36,240 --> 10:32:40,800
wouldn't just be a research project, but
12430
10:32:38,800 --> 10:32:42,480
the operating system of the entire
12431
10:32:40,800 --> 10:32:45,200
planet.
12432
10:32:42,480 --> 10:32:47,680
The storm of 2018 had been a warning.
12433
10:32:45,200 --> 10:32:51,400
The era of generative AI was about to
12434
10:32:47,680 --> 10:32:51,400
provide the answer.
12435
10:32:55,200 --> 10:33:00,000
By 2022,
12436
10:32:57,120 --> 10:33:02,240
the world had changed. The launch of
12437
10:33:00,000 --> 10:33:05,120
Chad GPT signaled the arrival of the
12438
10:33:02,240 --> 10:33:08,400
generative AI era, and Nvidia was the
12439
10:33:05,120 --> 10:33:10,480
only company prepared to power it.
12440
10:33:08,400 --> 10:33:13,436
But as Jensen Huang stood on the brink
12441
10:33:10,480 --> 10:33:16,640
of total market dominance, a new wall
12442
10:33:13,436 --> 10:33:19,596
was built, not by a competitor, but by
12443
10:33:16,640 --> 10:33:21,916
the US government. Washington imposed
12444
10:33:19,596 --> 10:33:24,960
strict export controls on high-end AI
12445
10:33:21,916 --> 10:33:27,360
chips. For Nvidia, the stakes were
12446
10:33:24,960 --> 10:33:29,200
astronomical.
12447
10:33:27,360 --> 10:33:32,160
According to the geographical revenue
12448
10:33:29,200 --> 10:33:35,436
data, China accounted for approximately
12449
10:33:32,160 --> 10:33:37,276
20% to 25% of the company's total
12450
10:33:35,436 --> 10:33:39,680
business.
12451
10:33:37,276 --> 10:33:42,240
Overnight, Jensen had to navigate a
12452
10:33:39,680 --> 10:33:44,000
geopolitical minefield, redesigning
12453
10:33:42,240 --> 10:33:46,160
chips specifically to comply with
12454
10:33:44,000 --> 10:33:48,000
regulations while trying to keep his
12455
10:33:46,160 --> 10:33:50,240
most important market from slipping
12456
10:33:48,000 --> 10:33:52,480
away.
12457
10:33:50,240 --> 10:33:54,480
Jensen's answer to the geopolitical and
12458
10:33:52,480 --> 10:33:58,400
technical pressure was the Blackwall
12459
10:33:54,480 --> 10:34:01,520
architecture. If the H100 was a spark,
12460
10:33:58,400 --> 10:34:04,960
Blackwell was a sun. Packing an
12461
10:34:01,520 --> 10:34:06,880
incredible 208 billion transistors, it
12462
10:34:04,960 --> 10:34:10,720
delivered up to 30 times the performance
12463
10:34:06,880 --> 10:34:12,560
of its predecessor for certain AI tasks.
12464
10:34:10,720 --> 10:34:15,360
But Blackwell represented a deeper
12465
10:34:12,560 --> 10:34:18,320
strategic shift. Nvidia was no longer
12466
10:34:15,360 --> 10:34:21,200
just a chipmaker.
12467
10:34:18,320 --> 10:34:22,800
Jensen was now building entire AI
12468
10:34:21,200 --> 10:34:24,960
factories.
12469
10:34:22,800 --> 10:34:27,360
By integrating Melanox's networking
12470
10:34:24,960 --> 10:34:29,360
technology, he controlled the highways
12471
10:34:27,360 --> 10:34:31,360
that allowed thousands of chips to talk
12472
10:34:29,360 --> 10:34:33,916
to each other as if they were a single
12473
10:34:31,360 --> 10:34:36,240
giant brain.
12474
10:34:33,916 --> 10:34:38,160
This system on a cluster approach meant
12475
10:34:36,240 --> 10:34:40,560
that even if a competitor produced a
12476
10:34:38,160 --> 10:34:42,240
faster individual chip, they couldn't
12477
10:34:40,560 --> 10:34:45,276
compete with the sheer efficiency of the
12478
10:34:42,240 --> 10:34:47,916
Nvidia ecosystem.
12479
10:34:45,276 --> 10:34:51,120
The financial results were staggering.
12480
10:34:47,916 --> 10:34:55,120
By early 2024, Nvidia's data center
12481
10:34:51,120 --> 10:34:56,960
revenue had surged to over 47 billion,
12482
10:34:55,120 --> 10:35:00,080
a 217%
12483
10:34:56,960 --> 10:35:02,640
increase in a single year. The company
12484
10:35:00,080 --> 10:35:05,276
was operating with 78.4%
12485
10:35:02,640 --> 10:35:07,680
gross margins, profit levels usually
12486
10:35:05,276 --> 10:35:10,160
reserved for software giants, not
12487
10:35:07,680 --> 10:35:13,916
hardware manufacturers.
12488
10:35:10,160 --> 10:35:17,200
On June 18th, 2024, Nvidia became the
12489
10:35:13,916 --> 10:35:20,080
most valuable company on the planet.
12490
10:35:17,200 --> 10:35:23,276
Yet, even as he stood at the summit,
12491
10:35:20,080 --> 10:35:26,080
Jensen refused to relax. He looked the
12492
10:35:23,276 --> 10:35:28,800
60-year history of semiconductors, the
12493
10:35:26,080 --> 10:35:31,436
rise and fall of Intel, the cycles of
12494
10:35:28,800 --> 10:35:33,596
Samsung and TI, and he knew that being
12495
10:35:31,436 --> 10:35:37,040
on top was the most dangerous place to
12496
10:35:33,596 --> 10:35:40,320
be. His next challenge wouldn't just be
12497
10:35:37,040 --> 10:35:44,040
about chips. It would be about giving AI
12498
10:35:40,320 --> 10:35:44,040
a physical body.
12499
10:35:47,840 --> 10:35:52,960
In 2024, Jensen Huang had already
12500
10:35:50,720 --> 10:35:55,276
conquered the digital world, but his
12501
10:35:52,960 --> 10:35:58,000
eyes were fixed on a new frontier, the
12502
10:35:55,276 --> 10:36:00,880
physical one. He declared that the next
12503
10:35:58,000 --> 10:36:02,640
wave of AI would be physical AI.
12504
10:36:00,880 --> 10:36:05,680
Intelligence that doesn't just process
12505
10:36:02,640 --> 10:36:07,596
text or images, but understands the laws
12506
10:36:05,680 --> 10:36:09,840
of physics.
12507
10:36:07,596 --> 10:36:12,880
Everything that moves from autonomous
12508
10:36:09,840 --> 10:36:16,000
cars to humanoid robots would eventually
12509
10:36:12,880 --> 10:36:18,400
be powered by an Nvidia brain.
12510
10:36:16,000 --> 10:36:22,080
This identifies it as the third pillar
12511
10:36:18,400 --> 10:36:25,120
of Nvidia's future. To win this race,
12512
10:36:22,080 --> 10:36:27,200
Jensen isn't just building chips. He is
12513
10:36:25,120 --> 10:36:29,360
building the omniverse.
12514
10:36:27,200 --> 10:36:31,520
This is a digital world where robots are
12515
10:36:29,360 --> 10:36:34,320
trained millions of times in a virtual
12516
10:36:31,520 --> 10:36:36,480
simulation before they ever step into a
12517
10:36:34,320 --> 10:36:39,276
real factory.
12518
10:36:36,480 --> 10:36:41,360
By the time a robot starts its job, it
12519
10:36:39,276 --> 10:36:44,480
has already lived a thousand lifetimes
12520
10:36:41,360 --> 10:36:47,200
of experience. Jensen's strategy is a
12521
10:36:44,480 --> 10:36:49,436
total vertical integration. He is
12522
10:36:47,200 --> 10:36:51,436
transforming Nvidia into a provider of
12523
10:36:49,436 --> 10:36:53,596
AI factories.
12524
10:36:51,436 --> 10:36:56,080
He believes that in the future, every
12525
10:36:53,596 --> 10:36:58,320
company will have two factories, one
12526
10:36:56,080 --> 10:37:01,436
that produces physical goods and a
12527
10:36:58,320 --> 10:37:03,520
digital one that produces intelligence.
12528
10:37:01,436 --> 10:37:05,596
With the Melanox networking, high-speed
12529
10:37:03,520 --> 10:37:08,080
highways, and the CUDA software
12530
10:37:05,596 --> 10:37:09,916
fortress, Jensen has ensured that the
12531
10:37:08,080 --> 10:37:13,360
entire infrastructure of this new
12532
10:37:09,916 --> 10:37:16,080
industrial revolution runs on Nvidia.
12533
10:37:13,360 --> 10:37:18,080
When asked about his legacy, Jensen
12534
10:37:16,080 --> 10:37:20,960
doesn't talk about stock prices or
12535
10:37:18,080 --> 10:37:23,276
trillions of dollars. He talks about
12536
10:37:20,960 --> 10:37:24,880
material sciences and scientific
12537
10:37:23,276 --> 10:37:26,960
discovery.
12538
10:37:24,880 --> 10:37:29,596
He believes AI will give humans
12539
10:37:26,960 --> 10:37:32,400
superpowers, helping us solve climate
12540
10:37:29,596 --> 10:37:34,560
change, cure diseases, and handle the
12541
10:37:32,400 --> 10:37:37,596
dangerous and mundane tasks so we can
12542
10:37:34,560 --> 10:37:40,596
focus on what truly makes us human,
12543
10:37:37,596 --> 10:37:40,596
curiosity.
12544
10:37:43,200 --> 10:37:47,520
By 2025,
12545
10:37:45,120 --> 10:37:49,276
the world had entered a state of compute
12546
10:37:47,520 --> 10:37:52,480
geopolitics.
12547
10:37:49,276 --> 10:37:55,040
Nvidia was no longer just a company. It
12548
10:37:52,480 --> 10:37:58,160
had become a strategic resource similar
12549
10:37:55,040 --> 10:38:01,756
to oil or grain. The launch of the
12550
10:37:58,160 --> 10:38:04,640
Blackwell B200 hadn't just met demand.
12551
10:38:01,756 --> 10:38:08,160
It had ignited a global scramble.
12552
10:38:04,640 --> 10:38:10,960
Nations like Japan, France, and the UAE
12553
10:38:08,160 --> 10:38:12,560
began building sovereign AI clouds.
12554
10:38:10,960 --> 10:38:14,960
Realizing that depending on a few
12555
10:38:12,560 --> 10:38:17,840
Silicon Valley giants for intelligence
12556
10:38:14,960 --> 10:38:21,200
was a national security risk.
12557
10:38:17,840 --> 10:38:24,960
But as 2025 progressed, a new whisper
12558
10:38:21,200 --> 10:38:27,916
began to haunt the industry. The wall.
12559
10:38:24,960 --> 10:38:30,720
For years, AI progress relied on scaling
12560
10:38:27,916 --> 10:38:33,040
laws. The idea that more data and more
12561
10:38:30,720 --> 10:38:36,960
GPUs would inevitably lead to more
12562
10:38:33,040 --> 10:38:39,680
intelligence. However, in 2026, the
12563
10:38:36,960 --> 10:38:42,320
returns are starting to diminish. Data
12564
10:38:39,680 --> 10:38:44,320
centers are becoming so massive, they
12565
10:38:42,320 --> 10:38:46,720
require their own dedicated nuclear
12566
10:38:44,320 --> 10:38:50,240
power plants. and the lowhanging fruit
12567
10:38:46,720 --> 10:38:52,480
of internet data has been exhausted.
12568
10:38:50,240 --> 10:38:55,120
Jensen's response to the wall is
12569
10:38:52,480 --> 10:38:57,276
typically defiant. He pivoted the
12570
10:38:55,120 --> 10:39:01,200
industry towards synthetic data and
12571
10:38:57,276 --> 10:39:03,680
reasoning models. In 2026, Nvidia's
12572
10:39:01,200 --> 10:39:07,916
focus has shifted from simply training
12573
10:39:03,680 --> 10:39:10,240
AI to inference at scale. The goal is no
12574
10:39:07,916 --> 10:39:12,640
longer just to build a model that knows
12575
10:39:10,240 --> 10:39:14,880
everything, but to build a system that
12576
10:39:12,640 --> 10:39:17,200
thinks through a problem for days, if
12577
10:39:14,880 --> 10:39:21,040
necessary, using massive clusters of
12578
10:39:17,200 --> 10:39:24,240
GPUs to reach a breakthrough.
12579
10:39:21,040 --> 10:39:27,520
The competition in 2026 has never been
12580
10:39:24,240 --> 10:39:30,000
fiercer. Nvidia's biggest customers,
12581
10:39:27,520 --> 10:39:32,160
Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, have
12582
10:39:30,000 --> 10:39:34,080
become its most dangerous rivals,
12583
10:39:32,160 --> 10:39:38,560
pouring billions into their own custom
12584
10:39:34,080 --> 10:39:41,436
AI chips to escape the Nvidia tax. Yet,
12585
10:39:38,560 --> 10:39:43,840
the software mode remains unreached.
12586
10:39:41,436 --> 10:39:46,240
While others build chips, Jensen is
12587
10:39:43,840 --> 10:39:48,400
building the entire ecosystem that make
12588
10:39:46,240 --> 10:39:52,640
a competitor's hardware feel like a
12589
10:39:48,400 --> 10:39:55,360
relic before it even leaves the factory.
12590
10:39:52,640 --> 10:39:57,040
In this era, Jensen Huang has become one
12591
10:39:55,360 --> 10:39:59,916
of the world's most influential
12592
10:39:57,040 --> 10:40:02,160
diplomat. He navigates a world where the
12593
10:39:59,916 --> 10:40:04,000
power grid is the new bottleneck and
12594
10:40:02,160 --> 10:40:05,916
where a single shipment of chips can
12595
10:40:04,000 --> 10:40:07,680
determine the economic future of a
12596
10:40:05,916 --> 10:40:10,480
country.
12597
10:40:07,680 --> 10:40:13,596
The trillion dollar question of 2026 is
12598
10:40:10,480 --> 10:40:15,680
no longer if AI will change the world,
12599
10:40:13,596 --> 10:40:19,000
but who will own the infrastructure of
12600
10:40:15,680 --> 10:40:19,000
that change.
12601
10:40:22,320 --> 10:40:26,800
The story of Nvidia is often told as a
12602
10:40:24,800 --> 10:40:29,756
series of lucky breaks or inevitable
12603
10:40:26,800 --> 10:40:32,800
triumphs. But as we look at the empire
12604
10:40:29,756 --> 10:40:35,200
Jensen Hang has built, the reality is
12605
10:40:32,800 --> 10:40:37,120
far more deliberate and far more
12606
10:40:35,200 --> 10:40:40,000
precarious.
12607
10:40:37,120 --> 10:40:41,840
In 2026, the company stands at the
12608
10:40:40,000 --> 10:40:45,596
center of the greatest industrial shift
12609
10:40:41,840 --> 10:40:48,720
in human history. Yet for Jensen, the
12610
10:40:45,596 --> 10:40:52,000
valuation of three, four, or 5 trillion
12611
10:40:48,720 --> 10:40:54,080
is a lagging indicator. The true metric
12612
10:40:52,000 --> 10:40:56,080
is the oxygen.
12613
10:40:54,080 --> 10:40:57,916
Throughout his journey, from the dish
12614
10:40:56,080 --> 10:41:00,640
pits of Denny's to the halls of the
12615
10:40:57,916 --> 10:41:04,000
Supreme Court, Jensen has maintained a
12616
10:41:00,640 --> 10:41:06,560
philosophy of intellectual honesty.
12617
10:41:04,000 --> 10:41:09,276
He admits when the technology is wrong.
12618
10:41:06,560 --> 10:41:11,276
He pivots when the market shifts. And he
12619
10:41:09,276 --> 10:41:12,960
invests billions when the world calls
12620
10:41:11,276 --> 10:41:15,120
him a fall.
12621
10:41:12,960 --> 10:41:17,756
He has turned a semiconductor company
12622
10:41:15,120 --> 10:41:20,160
into a geopolitical superpower, a
12623
10:41:17,756 --> 10:41:23,596
software fortress, and the primary
12624
10:41:20,160 --> 10:41:25,680
architect of a new form of life.
12625
10:41:23,596 --> 10:41:28,240
Critics ask if Nvidia is a bubble
12626
10:41:25,680 --> 10:41:31,040
waiting to burst, or if the scaling laws
12627
10:41:28,240 --> 10:41:32,960
of AI will eventually hit a dead end.
12628
10:41:31,040 --> 10:41:35,520
But Jensen doesn't operate on the
12629
10:41:32,960 --> 10:41:37,840
timeline of a stock market cycle. He
12630
10:41:35,520 --> 10:41:39,520
operates on the timeline of human
12631
10:41:37,840 --> 10:41:42,160
evolution.
12632
10:41:39,520 --> 10:41:43,680
He isn't just selling chips. He is
12633
10:41:42,160 --> 10:41:46,400
selling the marginal cost of
12634
10:41:43,680 --> 10:41:49,120
intelligence, making the most valuable
12635
10:41:46,400 --> 10:41:52,000
resource in the universe so abundant
12636
10:41:49,120 --> 10:41:54,560
that it changes the very definition of
12637
10:41:52,000 --> 10:41:56,720
what is possible.
12638
10:41:54,560 --> 10:41:58,640
Jensen often says that he wakes up every
12639
10:41:56,720 --> 10:42:00,160
morning with the same feeling he had in
12640
10:41:58,640 --> 10:42:02,000
1993,
12641
10:42:00,160 --> 10:42:05,120
the feeling that the company is going
12642
10:42:02,000 --> 10:42:07,756
out of business. It is this productive
12643
10:42:05,120 --> 10:42:10,880
paranoia that prevents the cyclical trap
12644
10:42:07,756 --> 10:42:12,560
that claimed the giants of the past.
12645
10:42:10,880 --> 10:42:15,360
He doesn't want to be the king of a
12646
10:42:12,560 --> 10:42:18,480
legacy. He wants to be the architect of
12647
10:42:15,360 --> 10:42:21,360
a future that hasn't even been imagined
12648
10:42:18,480 --> 10:42:24,800
yet.
12649
10:42:21,360 --> 10:42:27,276
Run, don't walk. Either you are running
12650
10:42:24,800 --> 10:42:30,960
for food or you are running from being
12651
10:42:27,276 --> 10:42:36,120
food. In the era of the digital brain,
12652
10:42:30,960 --> 10:42:36,120
the race has only just begun.
12653
10:44:02,560 --> 10:44:07,436
At the edge of the world, in a country
12654
10:44:04,800 --> 10:44:09,840
with more sheep than people, one of the
12655
10:44:07,436 --> 10:44:13,120
most powerful men in Silicon Valley
12656
10:44:09,840 --> 10:44:17,200
built an escape hatch. Not a vacation
12657
10:44:13,120 --> 10:44:20,000
home, not a tax shelter, a contingency
12658
10:44:17,200 --> 10:44:23,596
plan.
12659
10:44:20,000 --> 10:44:25,840
In 2011, a billionaire quietly secured
12660
10:44:23,596 --> 10:44:28,720
citizenship in New Zealand after
12661
10:44:25,840 --> 10:44:33,040
spending just days in the country. A
12662
10:44:28,720 --> 10:44:34,880
legal backdoor, a geopolitical lifeboat.
12663
10:44:33,040 --> 10:44:37,840
Deep in the rugged terrain of New
12664
10:44:34,880 --> 10:44:41,840
Zealand's South Island, Peter Teal owns
12665
10:44:37,840 --> 10:44:45,436
a vast private estate, remote, secluded,
12666
10:44:41,840 --> 10:44:47,840
and far from the centers of power.
12667
10:44:45,436 --> 10:44:50,640
While most billionaires buy yachts or
12668
10:44:47,840 --> 10:44:52,480
private islands, feel secured something
12669
10:44:50,640 --> 10:44:55,040
more strategic,
12670
10:44:52,480 --> 10:44:57,436
New Zealand citizenship
12671
10:44:55,040 --> 10:45:00,400
and a vast estate in one of the most
12672
10:44:57,436 --> 10:45:02,960
remote democracies on Earth.
12673
10:45:00,400 --> 10:45:05,040
the purchase price for this geopolitical
12674
10:45:02,960 --> 10:45:08,480
insurance policy.
12675
10:45:05,040 --> 10:45:11,200
In 2011, Theel obtained New Zealand
12676
10:45:08,480 --> 10:45:13,520
citizenship after spending just 12 days
12677
10:45:11,200 --> 10:45:16,640
in the country over the previous 2
12678
10:45:13,520 --> 10:45:20,276
years, a process that normally requires
12679
10:45:16,640 --> 10:45:20,276
years of residency.
12680
10:45:20,400 --> 10:45:25,520
The investment that secured this
12681
10:45:22,240 --> 10:45:28,160
exceptional pathway, approximately $7
12682
10:45:25,520 --> 10:45:30,640
million in local assets and business
12683
10:45:28,160 --> 10:45:33,840
investments.
12684
10:45:30,640 --> 10:45:37,596
The centerpiece, a $477
12685
10:45:33,840 --> 10:45:41,916
acre estate near Lake Wanaka, purchased
12686
10:45:37,596 --> 10:45:44,560
for 13.5 million New Zealand, about $10
12687
10:45:41,916 --> 10:45:46,880
million US.
12688
10:45:44,560 --> 10:45:51,520
When New Zealand media exposed the deal
12689
10:45:46,880 --> 10:45:53,200
in 2017, it sparked a national scandal.
12690
10:45:51,520 --> 10:45:54,800
>> Hi, Benedict. Nice to talk to you again.
12691
10:45:53,200 --> 10:45:56,720
So, when we last spoke, you told us that
12692
10:45:54,800 --> 10:45:59,360
Peter Teal was granted citizenship after
12693
10:45:56,720 --> 10:46:02,480
having only visited New Zealand four
12694
10:45:59,360 --> 10:46:04,720
times for an unknown number of days
12695
10:46:02,480 --> 10:46:06,720
because the documents had that
12696
10:46:04,720 --> 10:46:09,040
information redacted. Right.
12697
10:46:06,720 --> 10:46:11,756
>> Politicians called it citizenship for
12698
10:46:09,040 --> 10:46:13,680
sale. Opposition leaders demanded
12699
10:46:11,756 --> 10:46:16,000
investigations,
12700
10:46:13,680 --> 10:46:19,200
but Theel had already achieved his
12701
10:46:16,000 --> 10:46:20,960
objective, a legal escape hatch in the
12702
10:46:19,200 --> 10:46:22,640
world's most politically stable
12703
10:46:20,960 --> 10:46:25,520
democracy,
12704
10:46:22,640 --> 10:46:29,276
a geopolitical insurance policy that
12705
10:46:25,520 --> 10:46:31,520
money can buy.
12706
10:46:29,276 --> 10:46:33,840
Why would a man who helped build the
12707
10:46:31,520 --> 10:46:37,520
digital future prepare for the collapse
12708
10:46:33,840 --> 10:46:40,800
of the physical one? What does he see
12709
10:46:37,520 --> 10:46:44,480
that others don't? Yes, it's the uh 1
12710
10:46:40,800 --> 10:46:46,400
Thessalonians 5:3, the the uh the the
12711
10:46:44,480 --> 10:46:49,916
slogan of the Antichrist is peace and
12712
10:46:46,400 --> 10:46:51,916
safety. And so, which is nothing wrong
12713
10:46:49,916 --> 10:46:53,756
with peace and safety, but uh you have
12714
10:46:51,916 --> 10:46:55,916
to sort of imagine that it resonates
12715
10:46:53,756 --> 10:46:57,840
very differently in a world where the
12716
10:46:55,916 --> 10:46:59,520
stakes are so absolute, where the stakes
12717
10:46:57,840 --> 10:47:03,916
are so extreme, where the you know the
12718
10:46:59,520 --> 10:47:06,160
alternative to peace and safety is, you
12719
10:47:03,916 --> 10:47:07,756
know, Armageddon and the destruction of
12720
10:47:06,160 --> 10:47:10,160
all things.
12721
10:47:07,756 --> 10:47:13,596
He is one of the most polarizing figures
12722
10:47:10,160 --> 10:47:16,560
in Silicon Valley. To some, a visionary
12723
10:47:13,596 --> 10:47:19,276
genius who saw the future early. To
12724
10:47:16,560 --> 10:47:21,436
others, the shadow financier of
12725
10:47:19,276 --> 10:47:24,320
movements and candidates who challenge
12726
10:47:21,436 --> 10:47:28,240
liberal democratic norms.
12727
10:47:24,320 --> 10:47:30,640
This is not fear. This is strategy.
12728
10:47:28,240 --> 10:47:34,400
For decades, Peter Theel has made the
12729
10:47:30,640 --> 10:47:37,436
same bet over and over again. Bet
12730
10:47:34,400 --> 10:47:42,080
against consensus. better against the
12731
10:47:37,436 --> 10:47:44,640
crowd, better against the system itself.
12732
10:47:42,080 --> 10:47:47,200
To understand why he built a fortress at
12733
10:47:44,640 --> 10:47:50,560
the end of the earth, we have to go back
12734
10:47:47,200 --> 10:47:52,880
to a childhood of constant displacement.
12735
10:47:50,560 --> 10:47:55,276
To a chessboard where consensus meant
12736
10:47:52,880 --> 10:47:58,080
nothing, to a company that tried to
12737
10:47:55,276 --> 10:48:01,640
replace money and another that learned
12738
10:47:58,080 --> 10:48:01,640
to see everything.
12739
10:48:01,840 --> 10:48:07,276
But the estate is more than a luxury
12740
10:48:04,320 --> 10:48:10,560
retreat. It is a fortress designed for
12741
10:48:07,276 --> 10:48:13,200
civilizational uncertainty.
12742
10:48:10,560 --> 10:48:15,840
Off-grid power systems, advanced
12743
10:48:13,200 --> 10:48:18,720
security infrastructure, multiple
12744
10:48:15,840 --> 10:48:21,120
evacuation routes through the mountains.
12745
10:48:18,720 --> 10:48:23,040
Not built for comfort, built for
12746
10:48:21,120 --> 10:48:25,680
continuity.
12747
10:48:23,040 --> 10:48:27,680
While the world debates progress, Peter
12748
10:48:25,680 --> 10:48:29,360
Theel is preparing for a different
12749
10:48:27,680 --> 10:48:32,080
possibility.
12750
10:48:29,360 --> 10:48:35,560
Not how to build the future, how to
12751
10:48:32,080 --> 10:48:35,560
survive it.
12752
10:48:36,880 --> 10:48:42,720
The architect of dissident
12753
10:48:40,480 --> 10:48:46,240
total estimated value of Theo's
12754
10:48:42,720 --> 10:48:48,000
contingency infrastructure 20 to30
12755
10:48:46,240 --> 10:48:51,360
million.
12756
10:48:48,000 --> 10:48:53,596
Not for lifestyle, not for prestige, but
12757
10:48:51,360 --> 10:48:55,916
for the day the system he helped build
12758
10:48:53,596 --> 10:48:58,000
no longer holds.
12759
10:48:55,916 --> 10:49:00,720
He didn't build this because he panics
12760
10:48:58,000 --> 10:49:03,276
easily. He built it because he has
12761
10:49:00,720 --> 10:49:05,916
always believed that the crowd is wrong
12762
10:49:03,276 --> 10:49:09,276
and the future belongs to those willing
12763
10:49:05,916 --> 10:49:12,640
to stand apart from it. Every fortress
12764
10:49:09,276 --> 10:49:14,960
begins as an idea and Peter Theel has
12765
10:49:12,640 --> 10:49:18,840
been building intellectual fortresses
12766
10:49:14,960 --> 10:49:18,840
since he was a child.
12767
10:49:22,880 --> 10:49:28,160
Before he was a billionaire, before he
12768
10:49:25,360 --> 10:49:29,680
funded political outsiders, before he
12769
10:49:28,160 --> 10:49:32,720
built machines that could see
12770
10:49:29,680 --> 10:49:34,640
everything, he was a boy who never
12771
10:49:32,720 --> 10:49:37,360
stayed in one place long enough to
12772
10:49:34,640 --> 10:49:39,360
believe the world made sense.
12773
10:49:37,360 --> 10:49:42,800
So he searched for a world where the
12774
10:49:39,360 --> 10:49:44,640
rules didn't change. He found it on a
12775
10:49:42,800 --> 10:49:47,040
chess board.
12776
10:49:44,640 --> 10:49:49,040
To understand Peter Theel, you must
12777
10:49:47,040 --> 10:49:51,680
understand what it means to be a
12778
10:49:49,040 --> 10:49:54,480
permanent outsider.
12779
10:49:51,680 --> 10:49:56,880
Born in Frankfurt, West Germany, Peter
12780
10:49:54,480 --> 10:50:00,480
Theel spent part of his early childhood
12781
10:49:56,880 --> 10:50:02,800
in southwest Africa, now Namibia, before
12782
10:50:00,480 --> 10:50:06,160
growing up mainly in the United States
12783
10:50:02,800 --> 10:50:08,480
between Ohio and California.
12784
10:50:06,160 --> 10:50:11,756
Before he was a teenager, he had already
12785
10:50:08,480 --> 10:50:14,080
experienced life on multiple continents,
12786
10:50:11,756 --> 10:50:16,080
never staying long enough to feel fully
12787
10:50:14,080 --> 10:50:18,800
at home.
12788
10:50:16,080 --> 10:50:22,640
He didn't have a hometown. He didn't
12789
10:50:18,800 --> 10:50:25,040
have a tribe. He only had his own mind.
12790
10:50:22,640 --> 10:50:28,400
And in that isolation, he found a
12791
10:50:25,040 --> 10:50:31,400
language that didn't require a passport.
12792
10:50:28,400 --> 10:50:31,400
Chess.
12793
10:50:31,916 --> 10:50:36,240
For a child who changed continents
12794
10:50:34,080 --> 10:50:39,520
before he could even make friends, the
12795
10:50:36,240 --> 10:50:42,560
outside world was unpredictable noise.
12796
10:50:39,520 --> 10:50:44,560
But the board, the board was the only
12797
10:50:42,560 --> 10:50:47,756
place where the rules didn't change
12798
10:50:44,560 --> 10:50:50,640
depending on the country.
12799
10:50:47,756 --> 10:50:53,040
His
12800
10:50:50,640 --> 10:50:55,436
father, an engineer trained in a culture
12801
10:50:53,040 --> 10:50:57,840
of precision and systems thinking,
12802
10:50:55,436 --> 10:51:01,276
passed on a belief that reality could be
12803
10:50:57,840 --> 10:51:03,840
understood and optimized.
12804
10:51:01,276 --> 10:51:06,880
While other children sought to fit in,
12805
10:51:03,840 --> 10:51:09,680
Peter sought the edge. He learned that
12806
10:51:06,880 --> 10:51:11,360
the consensus of the crowd is usually a
12807
10:51:09,680 --> 10:51:13,916
distraction.
12808
10:51:11,360 --> 10:51:16,560
If everyone is running toward the ball,
12809
10:51:13,916 --> 10:51:18,240
you run toward where the ball is going
12810
10:51:16,560 --> 10:51:20,400
to be.
12811
10:51:18,240 --> 10:51:22,160
Chess is the ultimate antidote to
12812
10:51:20,400 --> 10:51:24,160
consensus.
12813
10:51:22,160 --> 10:51:26,880
In a crowd, you can hide behind a
12814
10:51:24,160 --> 10:51:30,000
popular opinion. In chess, you are
12815
10:51:26,880 --> 10:51:32,240
either right or you are dead. There is
12816
10:51:30,000 --> 10:51:34,880
no middle ground. There is no social
12817
10:51:32,240 --> 10:51:36,880
construction of the board.
12818
10:51:34,880 --> 10:51:39,520
He became a serious tournament chess
12819
10:51:36,880 --> 10:51:42,320
player drawn to a world where rules were
12820
10:51:39,520 --> 10:51:46,080
fixed, outcomes were earned, and
12821
10:51:42,320 --> 10:51:50,400
consensus meant nothing.
12822
10:51:46,080 --> 10:51:52,720
Mid1 1980s Stanford University.
12823
10:51:50,400 --> 10:51:55,040
To the world this was the peak of
12824
10:51:52,720 --> 10:51:59,276
American meritocracy.
12825
10:51:55,040 --> 10:52:01,360
To Theel it was a factory of conformity.
12826
10:51:59,276 --> 10:52:03,756
While his classmates were debating how
12827
10:52:01,360 --> 10:52:06,000
to change the world through activism,
12828
10:52:03,756 --> 10:52:08,640
Theel was wondering why they all sounded
12829
10:52:06,000 --> 10:52:10,720
exactly the same. He saw the
12830
10:52:08,640 --> 10:52:12,880
multiculturalism movement not as
12831
10:52:10,720 --> 10:52:15,040
progress but as a new form of
12832
10:52:12,880 --> 10:52:17,680
fundamentalism.
12833
10:52:15,040 --> 10:52:20,720
Stanford in the late 1980s was ground
12834
10:52:17,680 --> 10:52:23,520
zero for America's culture wars, battles
12835
10:52:20,720 --> 10:52:26,560
over multiculturalism, speech, and the
12836
10:52:23,520 --> 10:52:28,880
purpose of higher education.
12837
10:52:26,560 --> 10:52:32,160
Field believed the university was
12838
10:52:28,880 --> 10:52:34,000
drifting toward ideological conformity,
12839
10:52:32,160 --> 10:52:37,436
that certain views were becoming
12840
10:52:34,000 --> 10:52:40,080
socially, if not formally, offlimits.
12841
10:52:37,436 --> 10:52:43,360
Here his investment methodology was
12842
10:52:40,080 --> 10:52:47,276
born. Identify what the crowd considers
12843
10:52:43,360 --> 10:52:50,720
sacred and question it.
12844
10:52:47,276 --> 10:52:53,680
If everyone says identity diversity is
12845
10:52:50,720 --> 10:52:56,640
the most important thing, you argue that
12846
10:52:53,680 --> 10:52:58,720
intellectual diversity is the only thing
12847
10:52:56,640 --> 10:53:00,960
that matters.
12848
10:52:58,720 --> 10:53:04,080
He wasn't looking for friends. He was
12849
10:53:00,960 --> 10:53:07,040
looking to recruit others who like him
12850
10:53:04,080 --> 10:53:10,240
did not fear being hated.
12851
10:53:07,040 --> 10:53:12,800
He founded the Stanford Review.
12852
10:53:10,240 --> 10:53:16,000
The paper quickly became one of the most
12853
10:53:12,800 --> 10:53:18,880
controversial publications on campus,
12854
10:53:16,000 --> 10:53:22,720
attacking what field saw as intellectual
12855
10:53:18,880 --> 10:53:24,880
monoculture and political group think.
12856
10:53:22,720 --> 10:53:27,276
He saw that the smartest people in the
12857
10:53:24,880 --> 10:53:30,480
country were all competing for the same
12858
10:53:27,276 --> 10:53:32,240
narrow prizes, thinking the same narrow
12859
10:53:30,480 --> 10:53:35,596
thoughts.
12860
10:53:32,240 --> 10:53:39,040
He did what every top student does. He
12861
10:53:35,596 --> 10:53:41,200
followed the track. After Stanford law,
12862
10:53:39,040 --> 10:53:43,596
he secured a prestigious federal
12863
10:53:41,200 --> 10:53:45,916
appalate clerkship, the kind of
12864
10:53:43,596 --> 10:53:47,756
credential that opens every elite door
12865
10:53:45,916 --> 10:53:50,000
in America.
12866
10:53:47,756 --> 10:53:52,480
After his clerkship, he joined Sullivan
12867
10:53:50,000 --> 10:53:55,756
and Cromwell in New York, one of the
12868
10:53:52,480 --> 10:53:58,400
most elite law firms in the world. On
12869
10:53:55,756 --> 10:54:03,120
paper, he had reached the summit. Wall
12870
10:53:58,400 --> 10:54:05,360
Street was his great negative epiphany.
12871
10:54:03,120 --> 10:54:07,520
But from his perspective, the brightest
12872
10:54:05,360 --> 10:54:09,596
graduates in America were locked in
12873
10:54:07,520 --> 10:54:12,560
brutal competition for careers they
12874
10:54:09,596 --> 10:54:14,960
didn't even seem to want.
12875
10:54:12,560 --> 10:54:17,596
It looked like Renee Gerard's theory
12876
10:54:14,960 --> 10:54:20,000
made flesh, a system where everyone
12877
10:54:17,596 --> 10:54:23,120
desired the same prize simply because
12878
10:54:20,000 --> 10:54:25,916
everyone else did. Wall Street looked at
12879
10:54:23,120 --> 10:54:29,040
Theo like a laboratory of mimemetic
12880
10:54:25,916 --> 10:54:31,596
rivalry. He realized that if he won that
12881
10:54:29,040 --> 10:54:34,880
race, his prize would be becoming the
12882
10:54:31,596 --> 10:54:38,160
man in the office next door. A copy of a
12883
10:54:34,880 --> 10:54:40,960
copy. The day he lost the opportunity to
12884
10:54:38,160 --> 10:54:44,400
clerk for the US Supreme Court wasn't a
12885
10:54:40,960 --> 10:54:47,756
defeat. It was his liberation.
12886
10:54:44,400 --> 10:54:50,400
He lasted less than a year. But Theo's
12887
10:54:47,756 --> 10:54:53,200
first venture after leaving law was a
12888
10:54:50,400 --> 10:54:55,116
humbling lesson in failure. A lesson
12889
10:54:53,200 --> 10:54:58,080
that would shape everything that came
12890
10:54:55,116 --> 10:55:01,360
after.
12891
10:54:58,080 --> 10:55:04,080
In 1996, he launched Theel Capital
12892
10:55:01,360 --> 10:55:07,040
Management,
12893
10:55:04,080 --> 10:55:10,240
a hedge fund focused on currency trading
12894
10:55:07,040 --> 10:55:13,040
and macroeconomic derivatives.
12895
10:55:10,240 --> 10:55:15,756
The strategy was to make big directional
12896
10:55:13,040 --> 10:55:18,080
bets on interest rates, inflation
12897
10:55:15,756 --> 10:55:21,840
expectations, and foreign exchange
12898
10:55:18,080 --> 10:55:25,360
movements. Initial capital raised $1
12899
10:55:21,840 --> 10:55:27,520
million mostly from Stanford connections
12900
10:55:25,360 --> 10:55:31,400
who believed in the chess prodigy turned
12901
10:55:27,520 --> 10:55:31,400
lawyer turned financia.
12902
10:55:32,240 --> 10:55:37,596
The result was spectacular failure.
12903
10:55:35,360 --> 10:55:40,880
Within the first year, the fund had lost
12904
10:55:37,596 --> 10:55:44,400
significant capital. Industry estimates
12905
10:55:40,880 --> 10:55:48,240
suggest losses between 30 and 40% of the
12906
10:55:44,400 --> 10:55:50,640
initial investment pool. Investors fled.
12907
10:55:48,240 --> 10:55:52,640
Some demanded their remaining money back
12908
10:55:50,640 --> 10:55:55,040
immediately.
12909
10:55:52,640 --> 10:55:57,200
The reputation among finance
12910
10:55:55,040 --> 10:55:59,520
professionals, the people he had walked
12911
10:55:57,200 --> 10:56:02,160
away from at Sullivan and Cromwell, took
12912
10:55:59,520 --> 10:56:05,436
a serious hit.
12913
10:56:02,160 --> 10:56:08,720
He was no longer the Stanford genius. He
12914
10:56:05,436 --> 10:56:11,200
was just another failed trader.
12915
10:56:08,720 --> 10:56:13,680
But this failure taught him the most
12916
10:56:11,200 --> 10:56:16,720
important lesson of his career.
12917
10:56:13,680 --> 10:56:19,116
Competition is for losers.
12918
10:56:16,720 --> 10:56:21,756
Do not compete in crowded markets where
12919
10:56:19,116 --> 10:56:25,520
everyone is making the same trades with
12920
10:56:21,756 --> 10:56:27,916
the same information and the same tools.
12921
10:56:25,520 --> 10:56:31,116
Wall Street was full of extremely smart
12922
10:56:27,916 --> 10:56:33,520
people doing the same macro trades,
12923
10:56:31,116 --> 10:56:36,640
reading the same economic reports,
12924
10:56:33,520 --> 10:56:39,040
betting on the same currency movements.
12925
10:56:36,640 --> 10:56:43,756
It was a zero someum game played by
12926
10:56:39,040 --> 10:56:45,916
thousands of nearly identical players.
12927
10:56:43,756 --> 10:56:49,040
He needed to find a space where the
12928
10:56:45,916 --> 10:56:51,436
rules were still being written. Where
12929
10:56:49,040 --> 10:56:54,720
being first mattered more than being
12930
10:56:51,436 --> 10:56:56,640
best, where a monopoly position was
12931
10:56:54,720 --> 10:56:58,960
still available.
12932
10:56:56,640 --> 10:57:01,360
He needed technology.
12933
10:56:58,960 --> 10:57:05,116
And from the ashes of the capital
12934
10:57:01,360 --> 10:57:07,680
management, a new philosophy was born.
12935
10:57:05,116 --> 10:57:10,880
If you want to create lasting value, you
12936
10:57:07,680 --> 10:57:13,756
have to build a monopoly. This became
12937
10:57:10,880 --> 10:57:17,480
his investing mantra and it would make
12938
10:57:13,756 --> 10:57:17,480
him billions.
12939
10:57:19,040 --> 10:57:23,916
Theel walked away from the firm and went
12940
10:57:21,116 --> 10:57:26,880
back to California not to start a tech
12941
10:57:23,916 --> 10:57:30,480
empire but to try trading then to launch
12942
10:57:26,880 --> 10:57:32,720
a hedge fund. It failed. The system he
12943
10:57:30,480 --> 10:57:36,720
had rejected did not welcome him back as
12944
10:57:32,720 --> 10:57:38,720
a prodigy. It treated him like a nobody.
12945
10:57:36,720 --> 10:57:42,640
That failure would become the last
12946
10:57:38,720 --> 10:57:45,040
lesson before his real beginning. But he
12947
10:57:42,640 --> 10:57:47,680
learned something. If you play the
12948
10:57:45,040 --> 10:57:49,680
system game as everyone else, you've
12949
10:57:47,680 --> 10:57:51,680
already lost.
12950
10:57:49,680 --> 10:57:57,320
The chess master was done with the
12951
10:57:51,680 --> 10:57:57,320
board. He was ready to build his own.
12952
10:58:02,320 --> 10:58:06,240
So this is an ATM. What we're going to
12953
10:58:04,240 --> 10:58:08,080
do is transform the traditional banking
12954
10:58:06,240 --> 10:58:11,520
industry.
12955
10:58:08,080 --> 10:58:13,200
>> I do not fit the picture of a banker.
12956
10:58:11,520 --> 10:58:15,276
>> X.com. This is Julie.
12957
10:58:13,200 --> 10:58:17,840
>> Raising $50 million is a matter of
12958
10:58:15,276 --> 10:58:20,080
making a series of phone calls and the
12959
10:58:17,840 --> 10:58:22,000
money is there.
12960
10:58:20,080 --> 10:58:24,560
>> I've sunk the great majority of of my
12961
10:58:22,000 --> 10:58:26,640
net worth into X.com, which is the new
12962
10:58:24,560 --> 10:58:29,360
banking and mutual funds company on the
12963
10:58:26,640 --> 10:58:31,200
internet that I've started. December
12964
10:58:29,360 --> 10:58:34,000
1998,
12965
10:58:31,200 --> 10:58:37,276
Peter Theel co-founds a company called
12966
10:58:34,000 --> 10:58:39,680
Conffinity with Max Levchin, a brilliant
12967
10:58:37,276 --> 10:58:42,080
Ukrainian-born programmer, and Luke
12968
10:58:39,680 --> 10:58:44,000
Nosk, a fellow Stanford review
12969
10:58:42,080 --> 10:58:47,200
illuminous.
12970
10:58:44,000 --> 10:58:49,200
Initial funding, $300,000 scraped
12971
10:58:47,200 --> 10:58:51,360
together from friends, family, and
12972
10:58:49,200 --> 10:58:53,436
fellow libertarian true believers from
12973
10:58:51,360 --> 10:58:55,840
the Stamford days.
12974
10:58:53,436 --> 10:58:59,756
The original product idea, digital
12975
10:58:55,840 --> 10:59:02,160
wallets on Palm Pilot handheld devices.
12976
10:58:59,756 --> 10:59:04,720
The vision was that people would beam
12977
10:59:02,160 --> 10:59:07,360
money to each other using infrared ports
12978
10:59:04,720 --> 10:59:10,080
on the Palm Pilots
12979
10:59:07,360 --> 10:59:11,596
in coffee shops, at restaurants,
12980
10:59:10,080 --> 10:59:15,960
persontoerson,
12981
10:59:11,596 --> 10:59:15,960
bypassing banks entirely.
12982
10:59:16,240 --> 10:59:24,320
Total users after 6 months of operation,
12983
10:59:19,840 --> 10:59:26,560
12 people. literally 12.
12984
10:59:24,320 --> 10:59:29,276
Most of them were employees and their
12985
10:59:26,560 --> 10:59:32,880
friends testing the system. It was a
12986
10:59:29,276 --> 10:59:35,840
complete and utter flop. The technology
12987
10:59:32,880 --> 10:59:40,800
worked, but nobody cared. Nobody wanted
12988
10:59:35,840 --> 10:59:44,160
it. March 2000, Confinity pivots hard
12989
10:59:40,800 --> 10:59:46,480
and launches a new feature, email-based
12990
10:59:44,160 --> 10:59:49,520
money transfers.
12991
10:59:46,480 --> 10:59:51,916
You send money to any email address. The
12992
10:59:49,520 --> 10:59:54,400
recipient gets a notification, creates
12993
10:59:51,916 --> 10:59:57,436
an account, and the money is there.
12994
10:59:54,400 --> 11:00:00,880
Simple, instant, revolutionary. The name
12995
10:59:57,436 --> 11:00:03,756
of this new service, PayPal.
12996
11:00:00,880 --> 11:00:06,320
Within weeks, user growth exploded at a
12997
11:00:03,756 --> 11:00:08,000
rate nobody had ever seen in financial
12998
11:00:06,320 --> 11:00:12,560
services.
12999
11:00:08,000 --> 11:00:18,160
Month one, 10,000 users. Month three,
13000
11:00:12,560 --> 11:00:23,116
100,000 users. Month 6, 1 million users.
13001
11:00:18,160 --> 11:00:25,520
Month 12, 5 million users.
13002
11:00:23,116 --> 11:00:27,756
This was the fastest user adoption rate
13003
11:00:25,520 --> 11:00:30,720
in the entire history of financial
13004
11:00:27,756 --> 11:00:33,200
services. Faster than credit cards,
13005
11:00:30,720 --> 11:00:35,200
faster than checking accounts, faster
13006
11:00:33,200 --> 11:00:37,756
than anything.
13007
11:00:35,200 --> 11:00:40,800
But here is what most people do not know
13008
11:00:37,756 --> 11:00:44,160
about PayPal's growth. Here is the
13009
11:00:40,800 --> 11:00:47,276
secret that the mythology leaves out.
13010
11:00:44,160 --> 11:00:51,680
PayPal's explosive user acquisition was
13011
11:00:47,276 --> 11:00:56,560
not organic. It was not word of mouth.
13012
11:00:51,680 --> 11:00:58,800
It was not viral in the natural sense.
13013
11:00:56,560 --> 11:01:02,800
They literally bought their users with
13014
11:00:58,800 --> 11:01:05,596
cash. The strategy was elegantly simple
13015
11:01:02,800 --> 11:01:08,720
and brutally expensive.
13016
11:01:05,596 --> 11:01:11,840
Sign up for a PayPal account, get $10
13017
11:01:08,720 --> 11:01:15,360
deposited instantly. Refer a friend who
13018
11:01:11,840 --> 11:01:19,596
signs up gets another $10. Your friend
13019
11:01:15,360 --> 11:01:22,960
also gets $10. Cost per acquisition 20
13020
11:01:19,596 --> 11:01:26,560
to $40 per user depending on how many
13021
11:01:22,960 --> 11:01:29,840
referrals each user generated.
13022
11:01:26,560 --> 11:01:32,720
Monthly cash burn rate of peak growth 10
13023
11:01:29,840 --> 11:01:36,000
to 12 million
13024
11:01:32,720 --> 11:01:39,596
just vanishing into a user acquisition.
13025
11:01:36,000 --> 11:01:43,040
By late 2000, PayPal was spending 60 to
13026
11:01:39,596 --> 11:01:45,596
70 million annually just to buy users
13027
11:01:43,040 --> 11:01:47,680
with cash incentives.
13028
11:01:45,596 --> 11:01:50,320
They were hemorrhaging money at a
13029
11:01:47,680 --> 11:01:52,880
terrifying rate. Investors were
13030
11:01:50,320 --> 11:01:55,596
panicking. Board members were demanding
13031
11:01:52,880 --> 11:01:58,080
answers.
13032
11:01:55,596 --> 11:02:01,680
How long can you sustain spending $10
13033
11:01:58,080 --> 11:02:04,640
million a month buying users?
13034
11:02:01,680 --> 11:02:07,680
But Theel had done the mathematics. He
13035
11:02:04,640 --> 11:02:10,640
had run the numbers obsessively.
13036
11:02:07,680 --> 11:02:14,400
Each acquired user was worth $100 to
13037
11:02:10,640 --> 11:02:17,276
$200 in lifetime transaction fee revenue
13038
11:02:14,400 --> 11:02:21,756
through the PayPal network. They were
13039
11:02:17,276 --> 11:02:24,960
buying $100 bills for $20 bills. It was
13040
11:02:21,756 --> 11:02:28,160
either genius or insanity depending on
13041
11:02:24,960 --> 11:02:30,640
whether the math actually worked. The
13042
11:02:28,160 --> 11:02:32,960
believed it would work. He bet
13043
11:02:30,640 --> 11:02:36,160
everything on it. But there was a
13044
11:02:32,960 --> 11:02:39,596
problem. a major problem. Another
13045
11:02:36,160 --> 11:02:43,200
company was doing the exact same thing.
13046
11:02:39,596 --> 11:02:46,640
X.com, a finance company founded by Elon
13047
11:02:43,200 --> 11:02:48,640
Musk with money from his Zip 2 exit and
13048
11:02:46,640 --> 11:02:52,960
a vision for online banking that was
13049
11:02:48,640 --> 11:02:56,560
nearly identical to PayPal's.
13050
11:02:52,960 --> 11:02:59,436
Two companies, same idea, same market,
13051
11:02:56,560 --> 11:03:03,040
both burning massive amounts of cash at
13052
11:02:59,436 --> 11:03:05,680
completely unsustainable rates. Total
13053
11:03:03,040 --> 11:03:08,720
funding raised between both companies
13054
11:03:05,680 --> 11:03:12,080
over $100 million.
13055
11:03:08,720 --> 11:03:15,040
Combined monthly cash burn rate over $20
13056
11:03:12,080 --> 11:03:17,756
million time until both companies
13057
11:03:15,040 --> 11:03:20,960
simultaneously ran out of money less
13058
11:03:17,756 --> 11:03:23,756
than 6 months.
13059
11:03:20,960 --> 11:03:27,360
The merger was inevitable.
13060
11:03:23,756 --> 11:03:30,400
X.com and Confiniti merged into a single
13061
11:03:27,360 --> 11:03:32,720
entity. The combined company kept the
13062
11:03:30,400 --> 11:03:36,480
PayPal name because users had already
13063
11:03:32,720 --> 11:03:39,040
adopted it. The brand had momentum. Elon
13064
11:03:36,480 --> 11:03:44,436
Musk became chief executive officer of
13065
11:03:39,040 --> 11:03:44,436
the merged company for 5 months.
13066
11:03:45,680 --> 11:03:52,000
October 2000, while Elon Musk was on his
13067
11:03:49,360 --> 11:03:54,720
honeymoon, the board of directors led by
13068
11:03:52,000 --> 11:03:57,916
Peter Theel and other Confinity founders
13069
11:03:54,720 --> 11:04:00,480
held an emergency meeting and voted Musk
13070
11:03:57,916 --> 11:04:03,200
out as CEO.
13071
11:04:00,480 --> 11:04:06,320
The official reasons cited strategic
13072
11:04:03,200 --> 11:04:09,596
disagreements over technology platform.
13073
11:04:06,320 --> 11:04:12,560
Musk wanted to use Microsoft software.
13074
11:04:09,596 --> 11:04:16,240
The Confinity engineers believed in Unix
13075
11:04:12,560 --> 11:04:19,840
based systems. The actual reason Theel
13076
11:04:16,240 --> 11:04:23,436
wanted control, full control. This was
13077
11:04:19,840 --> 11:04:25,596
his company now.
13078
11:04:23,436 --> 11:04:28,960
Peter Theel became chief executive
13079
11:04:25,596 --> 11:04:31,436
officer of PayPal. Elon Musk remained a
13080
11:04:28,960 --> 11:04:35,200
major shareholder, but his operational
13081
11:04:31,436 --> 11:04:38,080
control was finished.
13082
11:04:35,200 --> 11:04:40,480
The two men, both future billionaires,
13083
11:04:38,080 --> 11:04:44,640
both future power brokers, had their
13084
11:04:40,480 --> 11:04:47,436
first battle. feel one. At its core,
13085
11:04:44,640 --> 11:04:50,080
PayPal ran on a simple idea that turned
13086
11:04:47,436 --> 11:04:52,640
into a powerful engine.
13087
11:04:50,080 --> 11:04:56,720
Every time money moved, PayPal took a
13088
11:04:52,640 --> 11:04:59,200
small cut, 2.9% plus 30 cents per
13089
11:04:56,720 --> 11:05:01,840
transaction. If that money crossed
13090
11:04:59,200 --> 11:05:04,320
borders, the fee climbed to between 2
13091
11:05:01,840 --> 11:05:06,480
1/2 and 4%.
13092
11:05:04,320 --> 11:05:08,400
Then there was the float, the cash
13093
11:05:06,480 --> 11:05:10,960
sitting in PayPal's accounts between
13094
11:05:08,400 --> 11:05:14,320
payments, quietly earning interest for
13095
11:05:10,960 --> 11:05:16,560
the company. Tiny slices repeated
13096
11:05:14,320 --> 11:05:19,680
millions of times.
13097
11:05:16,560 --> 11:05:23,436
By 2001, the numbers told the story of a
13098
11:05:19,680 --> 11:05:26,320
system coming to life. Every single day,
13099
11:05:23,436 --> 11:05:29,360
5 to8 million flowed through PayPal's
13100
11:05:26,320 --> 11:05:34,400
network. Each month, that translated
13101
11:05:29,360 --> 11:05:37,360
into 10 to$15 million in revenue.
13102
11:05:34,400 --> 11:05:39,916
But growth at this speed came at a cost.
13103
11:05:37,360 --> 11:05:42,800
Running the system, fighting fraud,
13104
11:05:39,916 --> 11:05:47,916
scaling infrastructure, acquiring users
13105
11:05:42,800 --> 11:05:50,240
was burning 20 to30 million every month.
13106
11:05:47,916 --> 11:05:52,640
The machine worked, it just wasn't
13107
11:05:50,240 --> 11:05:54,640
profitable yet.
13108
11:05:52,640 --> 11:05:57,200
Late 2000,
13109
11:05:54,640 --> 11:06:00,880
PayPal's data scientists discovered
13110
11:05:57,200 --> 11:06:03,276
something crucial. 70% of all PayPal
13111
11:06:00,880 --> 11:06:04,960
transactions were happening on eBay
13112
11:06:03,276 --> 11:06:07,200
auctions.
13113
11:06:04,960 --> 11:06:09,756
People buying and selling random items
13114
11:06:07,200 --> 11:06:13,200
on the internet's largest marketplace
13115
11:06:09,756 --> 11:06:15,520
were using PayPal to move money. The
13116
11:06:13,200 --> 11:06:18,880
strategic insight became immediately
13117
11:06:15,520 --> 11:06:23,040
clear. Make PayPal the only payment
13118
11:06:18,880 --> 11:06:27,040
method that eBay users trust completely.
13119
11:06:23,040 --> 11:06:29,680
Own that market, become indispensable.
13120
11:06:27,040 --> 11:06:32,000
The execution buyer protection
13121
11:06:29,680 --> 11:06:34,800
guarantees that eBay's own payment
13122
11:06:32,000 --> 11:06:37,436
system did not offer
13123
11:06:34,800 --> 11:06:41,320
instant payment transfers with no 7-day
13124
11:06:37,436 --> 11:06:41,320
check clearing period.
13125
11:06:41,756 --> 11:06:46,880
Fraud detection algorithms that were
13126
11:06:43,916 --> 11:06:49,756
better than credit card companies. Email
13127
11:06:46,880 --> 11:06:54,160
notifications for every transaction.
13128
11:06:49,756 --> 11:06:57,520
Simple, clean user interface.
13129
11:06:54,160 --> 11:07:01,276
By mid 2001, the strategy was working
13130
11:06:57,520 --> 11:07:04,000
beyond all projections. 50% of all eBay
13131
11:07:01,276 --> 11:07:07,680
auctions accepted PayPal as a payment
13132
11:07:04,000 --> 11:07:10,160
method. PayPal was processing $50
13133
11:07:07,680 --> 11:07:13,116
million daily in eBay related
13134
11:07:10,160 --> 11:07:18,400
transactions alone. And then eBay
13135
11:07:13,116 --> 11:07:20,400
noticed and eBay was not happy.
13136
11:07:18,400 --> 11:07:22,800
eBay launched their own competing
13137
11:07:20,400 --> 11:07:25,596
service called Billpoint and attempted
13138
11:07:22,800 --> 11:07:27,756
to kill PayPal through the marketplace.
13139
11:07:25,596 --> 11:07:30,800
They promoted Billoint in search
13140
11:07:27,756 --> 11:07:33,520
rankings. They penalized sellers who
13141
11:07:30,800 --> 11:07:36,640
only accepted PayPal. They made it
13142
11:07:33,520 --> 11:07:38,400
harder to display the PayPal logo. It
13143
11:07:36,640 --> 11:07:41,436
was war.
13144
11:07:38,400 --> 11:07:44,080
PayPal's response was total war.
13145
11:07:41,436 --> 11:07:46,560
Temporarily lower transaction fees to
13146
11:07:44,080 --> 11:07:48,720
undercut Bill.
13147
11:07:46,560 --> 11:07:51,916
Guarantee faster money transfers than
13148
11:07:48,720 --> 11:07:55,596
eBay could offer. Invest heavily in
13149
11:07:51,916 --> 11:07:58,640
superior $30 million deployed in 2001
13150
11:07:55,596 --> 11:08:01,200
fraud protection. Massive marketing
13151
11:07:58,640 --> 11:08:04,960
spending alone.
13152
11:08:01,200 --> 11:08:09,200
By early 2002, the war was over. PayPal
13153
11:08:04,960 --> 11:08:13,360
controlled 65% of eBay's payment market.
13154
11:08:09,200 --> 11:08:15,680
Bill point at barely 10%.
13155
11:08:13,360 --> 11:08:18,320
eBay executives looked at the numbers
13156
11:08:15,680 --> 11:08:23,360
and reached a conclusion, if you cannot
13157
11:08:18,320 --> 11:08:27,520
beat them, buy them. July 2002,
13158
11:08:23,360 --> 11:08:29,596
eBay acquires PayPal for $1.5 billion in
13159
11:08:27,520 --> 11:08:33,276
eBay stock.
13160
11:08:29,596 --> 11:08:36,160
Peter Theal owned approximately $3.7% of
13161
11:08:33,276 --> 11:08:39,360
PayPal at the time of the acquisition.
13162
11:08:36,160 --> 11:08:42,880
His equity stake was worth $55 million
13163
11:08:39,360 --> 11:08:45,360
in eBay stock. After taxes, he walked
13164
11:08:42,880 --> 11:08:49,276
away with approximately $40 million in
13165
11:08:45,360 --> 11:08:52,880
liquid wealth. At age 34, he had won his
13166
11:08:49,276 --> 11:08:54,880
first billion dollar game.
13167
11:08:52,880 --> 11:08:58,240
But the money was not the most valuable
13168
11:08:54,880 --> 11:09:02,240
thing he extracted from PayPal. The real
13169
11:08:58,240 --> 11:09:04,640
value was the network, the PayPal mafia,
13170
11:09:02,240 --> 11:09:08,560
the name they gave themselves. And it
13171
11:09:04,640 --> 11:09:11,360
was not ironic. It was descriptive. The
13172
11:09:08,560 --> 11:09:13,436
core team that Theel assembled at PayPal
13173
11:09:11,360 --> 11:09:16,640
would go on to create some of the most
13174
11:09:13,436 --> 11:09:22,640
valuable companies in human history.
13175
11:09:16,640 --> 11:09:27,520
Elon Musk Tesla market cap $650 billion.
13176
11:09:22,640 --> 11:09:30,560
SpaceX estimated value $150 billion.
13177
11:09:27,520 --> 11:09:33,596
Reed Hoffman LinkedIn sold to Microsoft
13178
11:09:30,560 --> 11:09:37,680
for $26 billion.
13179
11:09:33,596 --> 11:09:42,480
Steve Chen, Chad Hurley, Jawed Kareem.
13180
11:09:37,680 --> 11:09:47,320
YouTube sold to Google for 1.65 billion,
13181
11:09:42,480 --> 11:09:47,320
now worth over 100 billion.
13182
11:09:47,596 --> 11:09:54,320
Jeremy Stoppleman and Russell Simmons,
13183
11:09:50,240 --> 11:09:57,360
Yelp, peaked at $3 billion market cap.
13184
11:09:54,320 --> 11:10:00,480
David Saxs, Yammer, sold to Microsoft
13185
11:09:57,360 --> 11:10:03,436
for $1.2 billion.
13186
11:10:00,480 --> 11:10:07,680
later founded Craft Ventures. Max
13187
11:10:03,436 --> 11:10:12,800
Levchin, a firm $12 billion company.
13188
11:10:07,680 --> 11:10:15,596
Also co-founded Yelp. Keith Rabo, COO of
13189
11:10:12,800 --> 11:10:20,276
Square, partner at Founders Fund,
13190
11:10:15,596 --> 11:10:20,276
investor in dozens of unicorns.
13191
11:10:20,400 --> 11:10:27,116
Roloff Bofer, partner at Seoia Capital,
13192
11:10:24,320 --> 11:10:31,680
led investments in Instagram, YouTube,
13193
11:10:27,116 --> 11:10:34,720
Tumblr, MongoDB, Eventbrite.
13194
11:10:31,680 --> 11:10:36,640
Total value created by the PayPal mafia
13195
11:10:34,720 --> 11:10:40,160
across all their companies,
13196
11:10:36,640 --> 11:10:42,560
conservatively estimated at over $200
13197
11:10:40,160 --> 11:10:44,880
billion in combined market
13198
11:10:42,560 --> 11:10:47,040
capitalization.
13199
11:10:44,880 --> 11:10:48,880
Field's ownership stakes across this
13200
11:10:47,040 --> 11:10:52,080
extended network through direct
13201
11:10:48,880 --> 11:10:55,276
investments and fund positions estimated
13202
11:10:52,080 --> 11:10:57,276
at 2 to4 billion.
13203
11:10:55,276 --> 11:11:00,400
This was not just a company that got
13204
11:10:57,276 --> 11:11:03,276
acquired. This was the creation of the
13205
11:11:00,400 --> 11:11:06,680
most powerful business cartel in Silicon
13206
11:11:03,276 --> 11:11:06,680
Valley history.
13207
11:11:06,880 --> 11:11:12,400
But what made PayPal different was not
13208
11:11:09,436 --> 11:11:14,800
the technology. Not really. The
13209
11:11:12,400 --> 11:11:16,400
technology was impressive but not
13210
11:11:14,800 --> 11:11:18,480
miraculous.
13211
11:11:16,400 --> 11:11:21,276
What made PayPal different was the
13212
11:11:18,480 --> 11:11:23,116
culture, the religion of extreme
13213
11:11:21,276 --> 11:11:26,160
meritocracy.
13214
11:11:23,116 --> 11:11:28,080
Theo's hiring criteria were brutally
13215
11:11:26,160 --> 11:11:31,916
specific.
13216
11:11:28,080 --> 11:11:35,276
One raw intelligence, high test scores,
13217
11:11:31,916 --> 11:11:37,200
ability to solve complex puzzles, proof
13218
11:11:35,276 --> 11:11:40,720
you could think better than everyone
13219
11:11:37,200 --> 11:11:43,756
else. Two, intensity.
13220
11:11:40,720 --> 11:11:45,680
Are you willing to work 100hour weeks?
13221
11:11:43,756 --> 11:11:48,480
Are you willing to sacrifice everything
13222
11:11:45,680 --> 11:11:52,160
else in your life for the mission?
13223
11:11:48,480 --> 11:11:54,960
Three, missionary zeal. Do you actually
13224
11:11:52,160 --> 11:11:57,680
believe we are changing the world or are
13225
11:11:54,960 --> 11:12:00,960
you here for a paycheck?
13226
11:11:57,680 --> 11:12:03,116
Four, loyalty to the tribe. Will you
13227
11:12:00,960 --> 11:12:06,480
protect the other members? Will you put
13228
11:12:03,116 --> 11:12:09,840
the group above yourself?
13229
11:12:06,480 --> 11:12:15,360
Average employee age at PayPal 25 years
13230
11:12:09,840 --> 11:12:17,680
old. Average work week 80 to 100 hours.
13231
11:12:15,360 --> 11:12:20,240
Office culture libertarian,
13232
11:12:17,680 --> 11:12:22,080
anti-regulation, contrarian,
13233
11:12:20,240 --> 11:12:24,160
anti-establishment.
13234
11:12:22,080 --> 11:12:26,640
They called themselves the mafia
13235
11:12:24,160 --> 11:12:30,200
specifically because loyalty mattered
13236
11:12:26,640 --> 11:12:30,200
more than credentials,
13237
11:12:31,436 --> 11:12:36,960
more than degrees, more than previous
13238
11:12:33,680 --> 11:12:39,840
experience. Theel's operating principle
13239
11:12:36,960 --> 11:12:42,160
stated explicitly and repeatedly,
13240
11:12:39,840 --> 11:12:44,400
talented people do not want to work with
13241
11:12:42,160 --> 11:12:47,916
people who are less talented than they
13242
11:12:44,400 --> 11:12:50,000
are. So every new hire must be more
13243
11:12:47,916 --> 11:12:53,360
talented than the average current
13244
11:12:50,000 --> 11:12:56,080
employee. Otherwise, we are diluting the
13245
11:12:53,360 --> 11:12:59,436
talent pool. This created a
13246
11:12:56,080 --> 11:13:02,560
self-reinforcing escalation, an arms
13247
11:12:59,436 --> 11:13:05,756
race of hiring. Every new person raised
13248
11:13:02,560 --> 11:13:09,360
the bar. The standards became higher and
13249
11:13:05,756 --> 11:13:12,160
higher. Only the absolute best could get
13250
11:13:09,360 --> 11:13:15,200
in. And once you were in, you were
13251
11:13:12,160 --> 11:13:17,680
family. But here is what most people
13252
11:13:15,200 --> 11:13:19,756
forget about PayPal. Here is the
13253
11:13:17,680 --> 11:13:22,560
original vision that got erased from the
13254
11:13:19,756 --> 11:13:25,680
mythology. PayPal was supposed to
13255
11:13:22,560 --> 11:13:28,000
destroy the Federal Reserve. It was
13256
11:13:25,680 --> 11:13:31,360
supposed to undermine state control of
13257
11:13:28,000 --> 11:13:33,116
currency. That was the actual mission.
13258
11:13:31,360 --> 11:13:37,916
That was why Peter Theal, the
13259
11:13:33,116 --> 11:13:40,480
libertarian ideologue, cared so much.
13260
11:13:37,916 --> 11:13:43,360
The original vision laid out in Theo's
13261
11:13:40,480 --> 11:13:46,800
founding documents create a new digital
13262
11:13:43,360 --> 11:13:49,520
currency outside government control.
13263
11:13:46,800 --> 11:13:52,560
Enable true peer-to-peer transactions
13264
11:13:49,520 --> 11:13:54,880
globally without state intermediaries.
13265
11:13:52,560 --> 11:13:57,756
Undermine the state monopoly on money
13266
11:13:54,880 --> 11:14:00,320
creation and management.
13267
11:13:57,756 --> 11:14:02,560
build the financial infrastructure for a
13268
11:14:00,320 --> 11:14:05,040
stateless society.
13269
11:14:02,560 --> 11:14:08,000
What actually happened? To become
13270
11:14:05,040 --> 11:14:10,480
mainstream, to actually scale, PayPal
13271
11:14:08,000 --> 11:14:12,800
had to compromise every single founding
13272
11:14:10,480 --> 11:14:15,756
principle. They had to integrate with
13273
11:14:12,800 --> 11:14:18,720
the traditional banking system, the
13274
11:14:15,756 --> 11:14:20,960
enemy. They had to comply with know your
13275
11:14:18,720 --> 11:14:22,480
customer and anti-moneyaundering
13276
11:14:20,960 --> 11:14:24,640
regulations,
13277
11:14:22,480 --> 11:14:26,480
government control.
13278
11:14:24,640 --> 11:14:29,200
They had to partner with credit card
13279
11:14:26,480 --> 11:14:32,000
companies. The old system they wanted to
13280
11:14:29,200 --> 11:14:35,520
destroy. They had to get licensed in
13281
11:14:32,000 --> 11:14:37,436
every single state. Regulatory capture.
13282
11:14:35,520 --> 11:14:40,320
They had to report suspicious
13283
11:14:37,436 --> 11:14:43,840
transactions to federal authorities.
13284
11:14:40,320 --> 11:14:47,596
Surveillance. By 2002, PayPal was
13285
11:14:43,840 --> 11:14:50,320
regulated exactly like a bank. Partnered
13286
11:14:47,596 --> 11:14:53,200
with banks, dependent on banks for all
13287
11:14:50,320 --> 11:14:55,436
core functionalities. The libertarian
13288
11:14:53,200 --> 11:14:57,520
revolution had become just another
13289
11:14:55,436 --> 11:14:59,840
fintech company playing by the
13290
11:14:57,520 --> 11:15:02,160
government's rules.
13291
11:14:59,840 --> 11:15:04,240
The learned the most important lesson of
13292
11:15:02,160 --> 11:15:07,116
his career from PayPal's failure to
13293
11:15:04,240 --> 11:15:09,596
achieve its revolutionary mission. You
13294
11:15:07,116 --> 11:15:12,480
cannot disrupt the system from inside
13295
11:15:09,596 --> 11:15:14,800
the system. If you want to change the
13296
11:15:12,480 --> 11:15:17,680
rules, you cannot ask permission from
13297
11:15:14,800 --> 11:15:20,400
the people who wrote them. This lesson
13298
11:15:17,680 --> 11:15:24,596
would shape everything he did next.
13299
11:15:20,400 --> 11:15:24,596
Palanteer, Facebook,
13300
11:15:24,640 --> 11:15:30,960
his political investments, everything.
13301
11:15:28,720 --> 11:15:34,160
The PayPal acquisition was not an
13302
11:15:30,960 --> 11:15:36,800
ending. It was a beginning, the start of
13303
11:15:34,160 --> 11:15:39,840
something much larger. The pattern that
13304
11:15:36,800 --> 11:15:42,240
emerged over the next 20 years. PayPal
13305
11:15:39,840 --> 11:15:44,400
veterans leave and start new companies
13306
11:15:42,240 --> 11:15:47,596
in different sectors.
13307
11:15:44,400 --> 11:15:50,480
Theel invests early as angel investor or
13308
11:15:47,596 --> 11:15:52,320
through founders fund. PayPal mafia
13309
11:15:50,480 --> 11:15:55,200
members join each other's boards of
13310
11:15:52,320 --> 11:15:58,080
directors. Cross investment between all
13311
11:15:55,200 --> 11:16:00,720
their venture funds creates alignment.
13312
11:15:58,080 --> 11:16:03,040
Preferential access to deal flow because
13313
11:16:00,720 --> 11:16:04,960
of network relationships.
13314
11:16:03,040 --> 11:16:07,756
Shared intelligence about markets,
13315
11:16:04,960 --> 11:16:09,680
technology, and opportunities.
13316
11:16:07,756 --> 11:16:13,200
Real examples of how the network
13317
11:16:09,680 --> 11:16:16,800
compounds. Reed Hoffman introduces Theel
13318
11:16:13,200 --> 11:16:20,800
to Mark Zuckerberg in 2004.
13319
11:16:16,800 --> 11:16:24,480
Theel invests $500,000 in Facebook,
13320
11:16:20,800 --> 11:16:27,680
eventually makes over $1 billion.
13321
11:16:24,480 --> 11:16:29,840
Roloff Botha joins Sequoia Capital and
13322
11:16:27,680 --> 11:16:32,320
invests in multiple Theelbacked
13323
11:16:29,840 --> 11:16:33,916
companies, creating reciprocal deal
13324
11:16:32,320 --> 11:16:36,480
flows.
13325
11:16:33,916 --> 11:16:39,436
David Saxs hosts high dollar fundraisers
13326
11:16:36,480 --> 11:16:43,720
for Theo's political candidates, mixing
13327
11:16:39,436 --> 11:16:43,720
business and politics seamlessly.
13328
11:16:43,840 --> 11:16:50,000
Max Levchim provides seed capital for
13329
11:16:46,480 --> 11:16:52,000
Palanteer and serves as advisor lending
13330
11:16:50,000 --> 11:16:54,240
credibility.
13331
11:16:52,000 --> 11:16:58,240
This network effect multiplier is
13332
11:16:54,240 --> 11:17:01,756
precisely how Theel turned $55 million
13333
11:16:58,240 --> 11:17:03,756
from PayPal into over $5 billion in net
13334
11:17:01,756 --> 11:17:07,116
worth today.
13335
11:17:03,756 --> 11:17:09,596
The PayPal mafia is not a cute nickname.
13336
11:17:07,116 --> 11:17:12,160
It is not a metaphor. It is the most
13337
11:17:09,596 --> 11:17:14,480
successful organized business cartel in
13338
11:17:12,160 --> 11:17:17,200
Silicon Valley history.
13339
11:17:14,480 --> 11:17:19,520
A self-reinforcing network of wealth,
13340
11:17:17,200 --> 11:17:21,840
power, and influence that has shaped the
13341
11:17:19,520 --> 11:17:25,040
entire technology industry for two
13342
11:17:21,840 --> 11:17:30,116
decades. And Peter Theal sits at the
13343
11:17:25,040 --> 11:17:30,116
center of it all. The Godfather.
13344
11:17:35,436 --> 11:17:40,640
After PayPal, Peter Theel was a man with
13345
11:17:38,400 --> 11:17:43,840
a billion dollars and a dangerous
13346
11:17:40,640 --> 11:17:45,596
secret. While other investors were
13347
11:17:43,840 --> 11:17:48,320
looking at spreadsheets and profit
13348
11:17:45,596 --> 11:17:50,640
margins, Theel was looking at the human
13349
11:17:48,320 --> 11:17:52,640
soul through the eyes of his mentor,
13350
11:17:50,640 --> 11:17:55,916
Renee Gerard.
13351
11:17:52,640 --> 11:17:59,360
Gerard taught him a terrifying truth.
13352
11:17:55,916 --> 11:18:02,480
Human beings don't know what they want.
13353
11:17:59,360 --> 11:18:05,200
We are mimemetic creatures. We don't
13354
11:18:02,480 --> 11:18:07,756
desire things for themselves. We desire
13355
11:18:05,200 --> 11:18:10,240
them because other people desire them.
13356
11:18:07,756 --> 11:18:13,200
We are copy machines disguised as
13357
11:18:10,240 --> 11:18:15,840
individuals.
13358
11:18:13,200 --> 11:18:18,560
August 2004.
13359
11:18:15,840 --> 11:18:21,840
Facebook has been online for exactly 6
13360
11:18:18,560 --> 11:18:24,320
months. It started as a Harvard dorm
13361
11:18:21,840 --> 11:18:27,200
project and has now expanded to several
13362
11:18:24,320 --> 11:18:30,480
college campuses.
13363
11:18:27,200 --> 11:18:34,320
The metrics that Zuckerberg shows Theel
13364
11:18:30,480 --> 11:18:37,680
total registered users 200,000
13365
11:18:34,320 --> 11:18:41,276
almost entirely college students
13366
11:18:37,680 --> 11:18:42,880
daily active user rate 70 to 80%
13367
11:18:41,276 --> 11:18:47,680
engagement
13368
11:18:42,880 --> 11:18:50,560
unprecedented in web services revenue $0
13369
11:18:47,680 --> 11:18:54,640
no business model yet valuation
13370
11:18:50,560 --> 11:18:56,560
Zuckerberg is asking for $5 million
13371
11:18:54,640 --> 11:18:59,116
every single professional venture
13372
11:18:56,560 --> 11:19:01,916
capitalist in Silicon Valley has passed
13373
11:18:59,116 --> 11:19:05,040
on Facebook. Every major firm has looked
13374
11:19:01,916 --> 11:19:08,400
into it and said no. The reasons they
13375
11:19:05,040 --> 11:19:12,080
gave it is just a college directory.
13376
11:19:08,400 --> 11:19:14,320
Limited market. Fster has already 5
13377
11:19:12,080 --> 11:19:17,360
million users and is the leader in
13378
11:19:14,320 --> 11:19:20,480
social networking. MySpace is dominant
13379
11:19:17,360 --> 11:19:22,880
with 8 million users and growing fast.
13380
11:19:20,480 --> 11:19:26,320
There is no obvious business model or
13381
11:19:22,880 --> 11:19:29,596
revenue stream. Mark Zuckerberg is too
13382
11:19:26,320 --> 11:19:32,080
young, too inexperienced, too risky as a
13383
11:19:29,596 --> 11:19:34,400
founder.
13384
11:19:32,080 --> 11:19:36,960
Peter Theel saw something completely
13385
11:19:34,400 --> 11:19:39,116
different, something that had nothing to
13386
11:19:36,960 --> 11:19:41,520
do with technology.
13387
11:19:39,116 --> 11:19:44,560
Theel had spent years studying Renee
13388
11:19:41,520 --> 11:19:46,560
Gerard's mimemetic theory, the
13389
11:19:44,560 --> 11:19:49,916
philosophical framework that would shape
13390
11:19:46,560 --> 11:19:52,960
his entire investment approach. The core
13391
11:19:49,916 --> 11:19:54,240
idea, humans do not have original
13392
11:19:52,960 --> 11:19:57,680
desires.
13393
11:19:54,240 --> 11:20:00,000
We desire what other people desire. We
13394
11:19:57,680 --> 11:20:04,640
learn what to want by watching other
13395
11:20:00,000 --> 11:20:09,040
people want. Desire is imitative. Desire
13396
11:20:04,640 --> 11:20:11,200
is social. Desire is mimemetic.
13397
11:20:09,040 --> 11:20:13,200
When Theel looked at Facebook, he did
13398
11:20:11,200 --> 11:20:16,000
not see a technology platform for
13399
11:20:13,200 --> 11:20:18,400
connecting friends. He saw something far
13400
11:20:16,000 --> 11:20:21,596
more powerful. He saw the perfect
13401
11:20:18,400 --> 11:20:24,640
mimemetic desire machine. The insight
13402
11:20:21,596 --> 11:20:26,640
that made Theel invest. Social networks
13403
11:20:24,640 --> 11:20:29,680
do not create value by connecting
13404
11:20:26,640 --> 11:20:32,720
people. That is not where the money is.
13405
11:20:29,680 --> 11:20:34,960
The money is in comparison. The money is
13406
11:20:32,720 --> 11:20:37,276
in making people compare themselves to
13407
11:20:34,960 --> 11:20:40,000
each other constantly.
13408
11:20:37,276 --> 11:20:42,800
You see your friend's vacation photos,
13409
11:20:40,000 --> 11:20:45,116
you want a better vacation. You see
13410
11:20:42,800 --> 11:20:47,756
someone's job promotion announcement,
13411
11:20:45,116 --> 11:20:50,400
you want higher status. You see
13412
11:20:47,756 --> 11:20:53,040
someone's relationship photos, you want
13413
11:20:50,400 --> 11:20:54,880
romance.
13414
11:20:53,040 --> 11:20:58,160
You see someone getting likes and
13415
11:20:54,880 --> 11:21:01,040
comments, you want validation.
13416
11:20:58,160 --> 11:21:04,400
You see someone's perfect life, you feel
13417
11:21:01,040 --> 11:21:07,200
your own life is inadequate.
13418
11:21:04,400 --> 11:21:10,720
Facebook was not selling connections.
13419
11:21:07,200 --> 11:21:13,116
Facebook was selling envy. And envy,
13420
11:21:10,720 --> 11:21:15,596
Theel understood from Gerard, is the
13421
11:21:13,116 --> 11:21:16,880
most powerful economic force in human
13422
11:21:15,596 --> 11:21:20,080
history.
13423
11:21:16,880 --> 11:21:22,880
The desire for what others have. They
13424
11:21:20,080 --> 11:21:26,160
need to keep up. The fear of being left
13425
11:21:22,880 --> 11:21:29,596
behind. Infinite envy creates infinite
13426
11:21:26,160 --> 11:21:31,916
demand. Infinite demand creates infinite
13427
11:21:29,596 --> 11:21:34,400
value.
13428
11:21:31,916 --> 11:21:38,320
September 2004.
13429
11:21:34,400 --> 11:21:40,240
Peter Theal wires $500,000 to Facebook
13430
11:21:38,320 --> 11:21:44,480
incororated.
13431
11:21:40,240 --> 11:21:47,360
The deal terms 10.2% equity ownership in
13432
11:21:44,480 --> 11:21:49,116
the company. A board seat giving him
13433
11:21:47,360 --> 11:21:50,800
governance rights and inside
13434
11:21:49,116 --> 11:21:53,680
information.
13435
11:21:50,800 --> 11:21:57,040
Right of first refusal on all future
13436
11:21:53,680 --> 11:21:59,840
funding rounds. Post money valuation of
13437
11:21:57,040 --> 11:22:01,916
exactly $5 million.
13438
11:21:59,840 --> 11:22:05,200
Mark Zuckerberg's reaction after the
13439
11:22:01,916 --> 11:22:08,160
deal closed. This guy actually gets it.
13440
11:22:05,200 --> 11:22:11,200
He understands what we are building.
13441
11:22:08,160 --> 11:22:13,116
Silicon Valley's reaction. Peter Theal
13442
11:22:11,200 --> 11:22:16,160
just threw away half a million dollars
13443
11:22:13,116 --> 11:22:18,720
on a college kid's website. This will be
13444
11:22:16,160 --> 11:22:21,040
his biggest failure.
13445
11:22:18,720 --> 11:22:26,240
What happened next rewrote the history
13446
11:22:21,040 --> 11:22:30,880
of venture capital. 2004 end of year.
13447
11:22:26,240 --> 11:22:34,960
200,000 users grew to 1 million users.
13448
11:22:30,880 --> 11:22:38,480
Five times growth in 4 months. 2005
13449
11:22:34,960 --> 11:22:44,080
1 million users becomes 5.5 million
13450
11:22:38,480 --> 11:22:48,960
users. 2006 5.5 million users becomes 12
13451
11:22:44,080 --> 11:22:53,756
million users. 2007 12 million users
13452
11:22:48,960 --> 11:22:56,640
exploded to 50 million users. 2008 50
13453
11:22:53,756 --> 11:22:58,480
million users doubles to 100 million
13454
11:22:56,640 --> 11:23:00,000
users.
13455
11:22:58,480 --> 11:23:03,596
2009
13456
11:23:00,000 --> 11:23:06,960
100 million users becomes 350 million
13457
11:23:03,596 --> 11:23:10,080
users. growth rate. The user base was
13458
11:23:06,960 --> 11:23:12,480
doubling every 6 to9 months for five
13459
11:23:10,080 --> 11:23:15,040
consecutive years.
13460
11:23:12,480 --> 11:23:17,756
This growth curve had never been seen
13461
11:23:15,040 --> 11:23:21,276
before in business history. Not even
13462
11:23:17,756 --> 11:23:23,756
close. As Facebook grew, its valuation
13463
11:23:21,276 --> 11:23:26,080
grew and Peter Theel's stake grew with
13464
11:23:23,756 --> 11:23:28,240
it.
13465
11:23:26,080 --> 11:23:32,000
May 2005,
13466
11:23:28,240 --> 11:23:34,880
Axel Partners invests $12.7 million at
13467
11:23:32,000 --> 11:23:38,640
$100 million valuation.
13468
11:23:34,880 --> 11:23:42,160
Field's 10.2% stake is now worth $10.2
13469
11:23:38,640 --> 11:23:44,800
million. He has achieved 20 times return
13470
11:23:42,160 --> 11:23:48,320
in 9 months.
13471
11:23:44,800 --> 11:23:52,640
April 2006, Greylock Partners and
13472
11:23:48,320 --> 11:23:55,360
Meritech Capital invest $27.5 million at
13473
11:23:52,640 --> 11:23:58,800
$500 million valuation.
13474
11:23:55,360 --> 11:24:01,116
Theel stake is now worth $51 million,
13475
11:23:58,800 --> 11:24:02,800
100 times return on his original
13476
11:24:01,116 --> 11:24:05,276
investment.
13477
11:24:02,800 --> 11:24:09,840
October 2007,
13478
11:24:05,276 --> 11:24:13,520
Microsoft invests $240 million, valuing
13479
11:24:09,840 --> 11:24:17,916
Facebook at $15 billion.
13480
11:24:13,520 --> 11:24:22,480
The stake is now worth $1.5 billion, a
13481
11:24:17,916 --> 11:24:25,436
300,000 times return in 3 years.
13482
11:24:22,480 --> 11:24:27,840
2009 through 2011.
13483
11:24:25,436 --> 11:24:30,960
Multiple private sales and secondary
13484
11:24:27,840 --> 11:24:32,800
transactions value Facebook at $50
13485
11:24:30,960 --> 11:24:35,756
billion.
13486
11:24:32,800 --> 11:24:39,200
The stake, if he had held everything,
13487
11:24:35,756 --> 11:24:42,560
would be worth $5 billion.
13488
11:24:39,200 --> 11:24:44,960
May 18th, 2012,
13489
11:24:42,560 --> 11:24:49,840
Facebook goes public at a market
13490
11:24:44,960 --> 11:24:52,480
capitalization of $14 billion.
13491
11:24:49,840 --> 11:24:55,680
But Theel does not hold everything. He
13492
11:24:52,480 --> 11:24:58,960
is strategic. He is tactical. He takes
13493
11:24:55,680 --> 11:25:02,960
profits. At the initial public offering,
13494
11:24:58,960 --> 11:25:04,720
Theel sells $640 million worth of shares
13495
11:25:02,960 --> 11:25:07,040
immediately.
13496
11:25:04,720 --> 11:25:09,200
Over the following 6 months, he sells
13497
11:25:07,040 --> 11:25:11,520
the remainder of his stake in carefully
13498
11:25:09,200 --> 11:25:13,756
timed transactions.
13499
11:25:11,520 --> 11:25:18,400
Total cash realized from the Facebook
13500
11:25:13,756 --> 11:25:21,680
investment approximately $1 billion.
13501
11:25:18,400 --> 11:25:23,680
Initial investment in August 2004,
13502
11:25:21,680 --> 11:25:27,756
$500,000.
13503
11:25:23,680 --> 11:25:29,520
Total cash realized by end of 2012, $1
13504
11:25:27,756 --> 11:25:34,320
billion.
13505
11:25:29,520 --> 11:25:36,160
Total return, 2,000 times in 8 years.
13506
11:25:34,320 --> 11:25:39,116
This is the single greatest venture
13507
11:25:36,160 --> 11:25:42,240
capital return in recorded history.
13508
11:25:39,116 --> 11:25:45,520
Nothing else comes close. But here is
13509
11:25:42,240 --> 11:25:48,400
the twist. The haunting decision that
13510
11:25:45,520 --> 11:25:52,000
Theel himself admits keeps him awake at
13511
11:25:48,400 --> 11:25:55,916
night. Selling was a mistake.
13512
11:25:52,000 --> 11:25:58,800
If Peter The had held his original 10.2%
13513
11:25:55,916 --> 11:26:01,200
stake and had never sold a single share,
13514
11:25:58,800 --> 11:26:04,640
that stake at Facebook's peak market
13515
11:26:01,200 --> 11:26:08,160
capitalization in 2021 would have been
13516
11:26:04,640 --> 11:26:11,360
worth 102 billion.
13517
11:26:08,160 --> 11:26:14,400
$12 billion.
13518
11:26:11,360 --> 11:26:16,560
He left $100 billion on the table by
13519
11:26:14,400 --> 11:26:18,800
selling early.
13520
11:26:16,560 --> 11:26:21,116
The himself admitted this publicly
13521
11:26:18,800 --> 11:26:24,000
saying, "The mistake was not investing
13522
11:26:21,116 --> 11:26:25,596
in Facebook. The mistake was selling
13523
11:26:24,000 --> 11:26:28,320
Facebook.
13524
11:26:25,596 --> 11:26:30,880
I should have held longer. I should have
13525
11:26:28,320 --> 11:26:35,436
believed more. It is the single most
13526
11:26:30,880 --> 11:26:37,916
expensive decision of his life." Years
13527
11:26:35,436 --> 11:26:40,960
later in a Stanford lecture, Theel
13528
11:26:37,916 --> 11:26:44,480
explained his actual investment thesis,
13529
11:26:40,960 --> 11:26:46,400
the real reason he invested. I did not
13530
11:26:44,480 --> 11:26:49,200
invest in Facebook because I thought
13531
11:26:46,400 --> 11:26:50,960
social networks were going to be big. I
13532
11:26:49,200 --> 11:26:53,360
invested because I understood that
13533
11:26:50,960 --> 11:26:57,116
humans will always want to be more like
13534
11:26:53,360 --> 11:27:00,960
their peers. That desire is infinite. It
13535
11:26:57,116 --> 11:27:03,520
never stops. It only intensifies.
13536
11:27:00,960 --> 11:27:07,116
An infinite desire creates infinite
13537
11:27:03,520 --> 11:27:08,640
value. The mimemetic theory made him a
13538
11:27:07,116 --> 11:27:10,880
billionaire.
13539
11:27:08,640 --> 11:27:14,480
The mimemetic theory also made him
13540
11:27:10,880 --> 11:27:17,840
terrified of what he had helped create.
13541
11:27:14,480 --> 11:27:20,320
A machine that weaponizes human envy. A
13542
11:27:17,840 --> 11:27:22,240
system that profits from making people
13543
11:27:20,320 --> 11:27:24,880
feel inadequate.
13544
11:27:22,240 --> 11:27:27,436
An algorithm that amplifies the worst
13545
11:27:24,880 --> 11:27:29,680
aspects of human nature.
13546
11:27:27,436 --> 11:27:32,560
Peter Theal helped build the most
13547
11:27:29,680 --> 11:27:36,080
powerful behavior modification system in
13548
11:27:32,560 --> 11:27:39,960
human history. And then he cashed out
13549
11:27:36,080 --> 11:27:39,960
for a billion dollars.
13550
11:27:46,320 --> 11:27:54,160
2003 Peter Theel has a problem. It is
13551
11:27:50,960 --> 11:27:57,276
the CIA's problem, but they think the
13552
11:27:54,160 --> 11:28:00,080
can solve it. His PayPal anti-fraud
13553
11:27:57,276 --> 11:28:02,400
algorithms have become so sophisticated
13554
11:28:00,080 --> 11:28:04,720
at detecting patterns in financial
13555
11:28:02,400 --> 11:28:06,960
transactions at finding terrorists
13556
11:28:04,720 --> 11:28:10,720
trying to move money through banking
13557
11:28:06,960 --> 11:28:14,640
systems that the CIA venture capital arm
13558
11:28:10,720 --> 11:28:17,520
in QEL requested a meeting. The pitch
13559
11:28:14,640 --> 11:28:20,240
from the CIA, can you build what you
13560
11:28:17,520 --> 11:28:23,200
built for PayPal but for national
13561
11:28:20,240 --> 11:28:25,916
security? Can you find terrorists the
13562
11:28:23,200 --> 11:28:27,840
way you found fraudsters?
13563
11:28:25,916 --> 11:28:30,240
May 2003,
13564
11:28:27,840 --> 11:28:32,640
Peter Theel co-founds Palunteer
13565
11:28:30,240 --> 11:28:34,240
Technologies with an unusual group of
13566
11:28:32,640 --> 11:28:37,200
co-founders.
13567
11:28:34,240 --> 11:28:40,640
The founding team, Alex Karp, chief
13568
11:28:37,200 --> 11:28:43,040
executive officer, Stanford Law Degree,
13569
11:28:40,640 --> 11:28:45,680
philosophy, PhD from Frankfurt
13570
11:28:43,040 --> 11:28:48,320
University in Germany, former human
13571
11:28:45,680 --> 11:28:51,840
rights lawyer who once worked on refugee
13572
11:28:48,320 --> 11:28:53,756
cases. an extremely odd choice to run a
13573
11:28:51,840 --> 11:28:55,680
company that will become the most
13574
11:28:53,756 --> 11:28:58,000
powerful surveillance technology
13575
11:28:55,680 --> 11:29:00,560
provider on Earth.
13576
11:28:58,000 --> 11:29:03,680
Nathan Gettings, chief technology
13577
11:29:00,560 --> 11:29:06,640
officer. PayPal's lead security
13578
11:29:03,680 --> 11:29:09,596
engineer. Brilliant programmer. Joe
13579
11:29:06,640 --> 11:29:12,560
Lndale, a Stamford undergraduate
13580
11:29:09,596 --> 11:29:16,160
student, barely 20 years old, one of the
13581
11:29:12,560 --> 11:29:19,276
first Theel fellows. Steven Cohen,
13582
11:29:16,160 --> 11:29:21,116
PayPal's chief security architect. the
13583
11:29:19,276 --> 11:29:24,080
person who actually built the fraud
13584
11:29:21,116 --> 11:29:25,840
detection algorithms. Initial funding,
13585
11:29:24,080 --> 11:29:28,000
$2 million,
13586
11:29:25,840 --> 11:29:31,596
entirely from Peter Theel's personal
13587
11:29:28,000 --> 11:29:33,756
capital. No outside investors yet. This
13588
11:29:31,596 --> 11:29:36,400
is his project.
13589
11:29:33,756 --> 11:29:38,960
The mission statement, build software
13590
11:29:36,400 --> 11:29:41,520
that can find patterns in massive data
13591
11:29:38,960 --> 11:29:43,596
sets from disperate, incompatible
13592
11:29:41,520 --> 11:29:46,640
sources.
13593
11:29:43,596 --> 11:29:48,960
The kind of data that if intelligency
13594
11:29:46,640 --> 11:29:51,916
agencies had been able to analyze it
13595
11:29:48,960 --> 11:29:54,880
properly could have prevented September
13596
11:29:51,916 --> 11:29:58,480
11th, 2001.
13597
11:29:54,880 --> 11:30:00,880
The company name Palunteer named after
13598
11:29:58,480 --> 11:30:02,880
the seeing stones in Lord of the Rings,
13599
11:30:00,880 --> 11:30:05,040
the magical orbs that allow their
13600
11:30:02,880 --> 11:30:08,000
possessors to see anything happening
13601
11:30:05,040 --> 11:30:11,436
anywhere in Middle Earth. Even the name
13602
11:30:08,000 --> 11:30:12,960
revealed the ambition total information
13603
11:30:11,436 --> 11:30:17,800
awareness.
13604
11:30:12,960 --> 11:30:17,800
the ability to see everything.
13605
11:30:18,000 --> 11:30:23,116
2005,
13606
11:30:19,520 --> 11:30:26,000
the CIA's venture capital arm in CQEL
13607
11:30:23,116 --> 11:30:28,880
invest $2 million in Palanteer's series
13608
11:30:26,000 --> 11:30:31,596
A funding round. This was not just
13609
11:30:28,880 --> 11:30:34,320
money. This was validation from the
13610
11:30:31,596 --> 11:30:36,800
intelligence community, a stamp of
13611
11:30:34,320 --> 11:30:39,276
approval from the most secretive, most
13612
11:30:36,800 --> 11:30:40,880
paranoid organization in the US
13613
11:30:39,276 --> 11:30:44,720
government.
13614
11:30:40,880 --> 11:30:46,800
Initial contract value undisclosed.
13615
11:30:44,720 --> 11:30:50,160
Government intelligence contracts are
13616
11:30:46,800 --> 11:30:52,880
classified by law, but industry analysts
13617
11:30:50,160 --> 11:30:56,320
estimate the first CIA contracts were
13618
11:30:52,880 --> 11:30:59,520
worth 5 to 10 million annually.
13619
11:30:56,320 --> 11:31:02,720
The product was called Palunteer Gotham.
13620
11:30:59,520 --> 11:31:05,840
The name itself was significant. Gotham,
13621
11:31:02,720 --> 11:31:08,080
the dark city that needs Batman. The
13622
11:31:05,840 --> 11:31:11,596
city that needs surveillance to fight
13623
11:31:08,080 --> 11:31:13,596
crime. core technical capabilities.
13624
11:31:11,596 --> 11:31:16,320
Integrate data from dozens of
13625
11:31:13,596 --> 11:31:18,320
incompatible government databases that
13626
11:31:16,320 --> 11:31:21,040
were never designed to communicate with
13627
11:31:18,320 --> 11:31:23,680
each other. From hidden connections
13628
11:31:21,040 --> 11:31:27,596
between people, places, financial
13629
11:31:23,680 --> 11:31:30,240
transactions, communications metadata,
13630
11:31:27,596 --> 11:31:32,480
visualize networks of relationships in
13631
11:31:30,240 --> 11:31:34,560
ways human analysts could understand
13632
11:31:32,480 --> 11:31:36,880
intuitively.
13633
11:31:34,560 --> 11:31:39,116
Predict future behavior and likely
13634
11:31:36,880 --> 11:31:42,080
attack patterns based on historical
13635
11:31:39,116 --> 11:31:44,960
data. Specific use cases for
13636
11:31:42,080 --> 11:31:47,916
intelligence agencies. Track terrorist
13637
11:31:44,960 --> 11:31:49,916
cells across multiple countries. Map
13638
11:31:47,916 --> 11:31:52,080
drug trafficking routes from production
13639
11:31:49,916 --> 11:31:54,240
to distribution.
13640
11:31:52,080 --> 11:31:57,200
Identify money laundering networks
13641
11:31:54,240 --> 11:31:59,680
moving funds for organized crime.
13642
11:31:57,200 --> 11:32:01,916
Predict insurgent attacks in Iraq and
13643
11:31:59,680 --> 11:32:05,520
Afghanistan based on pattern
13644
11:32:01,916 --> 11:32:09,276
recognition. It worked. The software
13645
11:32:05,520 --> 11:32:12,400
actually worked. By 2006, Palanteer
13646
11:32:09,276 --> 11:32:15,360
software was being actively used in Iraq
13647
11:32:12,400 --> 11:32:18,960
for counterinsurgency operations and in
13648
11:32:15,360 --> 11:32:21,200
IED attack prediction.
13649
11:32:18,960 --> 11:32:24,160
Afghanistan for predicting Taliban
13650
11:32:21,200 --> 11:32:27,840
leadership networks. Langley, Virginia
13651
11:32:24,160 --> 11:32:30,560
at CIA headquarters for threat analysis.
13652
11:32:27,840 --> 11:32:34,756
FBI field officers nationwide for
13653
11:32:30,560 --> 11:32:34,756
domestic terrorism investigation.
13654
11:32:34,800 --> 11:32:40,960
Early revenue growth told the story of
13655
11:32:36,960 --> 11:32:43,756
Palunteers expanding reach. 2005
13656
11:32:40,960 --> 11:32:50,080
$3 million in revenue. Government
13657
11:32:43,756 --> 11:32:55,520
contracts only. 2006 $10 million. 2007
13658
11:32:50,080 --> 11:33:00,160
$25 million. 2008 $50 million. First
13659
11:32:55,520 --> 11:33:06,640
commercial clients added 2010 $150
13660
11:33:00,160 --> 11:33:08,400
million. 2012 $400 million. By 2012,
13661
11:33:06,640 --> 11:33:10,560
Palanteer had achieved something
13662
11:33:08,400 --> 11:33:14,240
extremely rare for a high- growth
13663
11:33:10,560 --> 11:33:16,480
technology company. Profitability.
13664
11:33:14,240 --> 11:33:19,436
They were actually making money, not
13665
11:33:16,480 --> 11:33:22,560
just burning venture capital. Customer
13666
11:33:19,436 --> 11:33:26,560
revenue breakdown in 2012.
13667
11:33:22,560 --> 11:33:29,116
Government contracts, 60% of revenue,
13668
11:33:26,560 --> 11:33:33,596
$240 million.
13669
11:33:29,116 --> 11:33:36,320
Commercial clients, 40% of revenue, $160
13670
11:33:33,596 --> 11:33:40,320
million.
13671
11:33:36,320 --> 11:33:42,640
May the 1st, 2011. Palanteer Software
13672
11:33:40,320 --> 11:33:45,916
plays a role in the operation that kills
13673
11:33:42,640 --> 11:33:48,160
Osama bin Laden. A role that remains
13674
11:33:45,916 --> 11:33:51,276
partially classified, but has been
13675
11:33:48,160 --> 11:33:54,080
confirmed by multiple sources.
13676
11:33:51,276 --> 11:33:56,400
How Palanteer contributed. Palanteer
13677
11:33:54,080 --> 11:33:58,800
Gotham integrated dozens of different
13678
11:33:56,400 --> 11:34:01,200
intelligence sources.
13679
11:33:58,800 --> 11:34:04,400
CIA human intelligence on career
13680
11:34:01,200 --> 11:34:06,960
networks. NSA signal intelligence
13681
11:34:04,400 --> 11:34:09,840
including phone metadata and email
13682
11:34:06,960 --> 11:34:12,960
communications patterns.
13683
11:34:09,840 --> 11:34:15,840
National Geospatial Intelligence Agency
13684
11:34:12,960 --> 11:34:17,360
satellite imagery of potential compound
13685
11:34:15,840 --> 11:34:19,840
locations.
13686
11:34:17,360 --> 11:34:21,840
historical pattern analysis of previous
13687
11:34:19,840 --> 11:34:24,640
highv value target operations in
13688
11:34:21,840 --> 11:34:26,720
Pakistan.
13689
11:34:24,640 --> 11:34:29,040
The system identified patterns and
13690
11:34:26,720 --> 11:34:31,520
connections that human analysts working
13691
11:34:29,040 --> 11:34:34,720
with separate databases that did not
13692
11:34:31,520 --> 11:34:36,960
communicate had missed. It narrowed the
13693
11:34:34,720 --> 11:34:41,436
search area and helped confirm the
13694
11:34:36,960 --> 11:34:43,520
identity of the Abotabad compound.
13695
11:34:41,436 --> 11:34:45,916
When asked about Palanteer's role in the
13696
11:34:43,520 --> 11:34:49,040
bin Laden operation, Theel gave
13697
11:34:45,916 --> 11:34:51,360
carefully worded response. I cannot
13698
11:34:49,040 --> 11:34:53,916
comment on specific operations or
13699
11:34:51,360 --> 11:34:58,080
specific clients due to classification
13700
11:34:53,916 --> 11:35:00,480
requirements, but I will say this. Tools
13701
11:34:58,080 --> 11:35:02,640
that help protect American lives and
13702
11:35:00,480 --> 11:35:08,000
help intelligence professionals do their
13703
11:35:02,640 --> 11:35:10,240
jobs better. That is our mission.
13704
11:35:08,000 --> 11:35:13,200
This single operation, this single
13705
11:35:10,240 --> 11:35:15,200
success legitimized Palanteer's entire
13706
11:35:13,200 --> 11:35:17,596
value proposition to the national
13707
11:35:15,200 --> 11:35:20,480
security establishment.
13708
11:35:17,596 --> 11:35:22,960
After bin Laden, the contracts poured
13709
11:35:20,480 --> 11:35:25,680
in.
13710
11:35:22,960 --> 11:35:28,640
After the bin Laden success, Palanteer's
13711
11:35:25,680 --> 11:35:33,200
government business exploded. Revenue
13712
11:35:28,640 --> 11:35:38,480
growth from 2012 to 2015.
13713
11:35:33,200 --> 11:35:41,916
2012, $400 million in revenue. 2013,
13714
11:35:38,480 --> 11:35:47,360
$600 million. 2014,
13715
11:35:41,916 --> 11:35:50,400
$900 million. 2015, $1.5 billion in
13716
11:35:47,360 --> 11:35:53,400
revenue. Major new contracts announced
13717
11:35:50,400 --> 11:35:53,400
publicly.
13718
11:35:54,800 --> 11:36:02,240
US Department of Defense, $222 million
13719
11:35:59,360 --> 11:36:04,080
for a 3-year data integration platform
13720
11:36:02,240 --> 11:36:08,080
contract.
13721
11:36:04,080 --> 11:36:11,200
US Army, $800 million for comprehensive
13722
11:36:08,080 --> 11:36:13,360
data platform modernization across all
13723
11:36:11,200 --> 11:36:17,520
army systems,
13724
11:36:13,360 --> 11:36:20,160
US Special Operations Command, $444
13725
11:36:17,520 --> 11:36:21,916
million for targeting and intelligence
13726
11:36:20,160 --> 11:36:25,436
fusion,
13727
11:36:21,916 --> 11:36:27,756
Department of Homeland Security, $240
13728
11:36:25,436 --> 11:36:30,880
million for border security and
13729
11:36:27,756 --> 11:36:33,276
immigration enforcement systems.
13730
11:36:30,880 --> 11:36:35,916
Palanteer had become the single most
13731
11:36:33,276 --> 11:36:37,756
important software company in the entire
13732
11:36:35,916 --> 11:36:39,360
US defense and intelligence
13733
11:36:37,756 --> 11:36:41,596
establishment,
13734
11:36:39,360 --> 11:36:44,800
more important than traditional defense
13735
11:36:41,596 --> 11:36:46,800
contractors, more embedded in classified
13736
11:36:44,800 --> 11:36:49,436
operations.
13737
11:36:46,800 --> 11:36:51,436
Simultaneously, Palanteer launched a
13738
11:36:49,436 --> 11:36:54,800
commercial product called Palunteer
13739
11:36:51,436 --> 11:36:57,840
Foundry for private sector clients. The
13740
11:36:54,800 --> 11:37:00,000
sales pitch to corporate America. Your
13741
11:36:57,840 --> 11:37:03,756
company has exactly the same problem as
13742
11:37:00,000 --> 11:37:06,320
the CIA. Too much data, too many
13743
11:37:03,756 --> 11:37:08,720
incompatible systems, not enough
13744
11:37:06,320 --> 11:37:11,360
insight. We can help you find the
13745
11:37:08,720 --> 11:37:13,520
patterns you are missing. Major
13746
11:37:11,360 --> 11:37:17,040
commercial clients and estimated
13747
11:37:13,520 --> 11:37:21,916
contract values.
13748
11:37:17,040 --> 11:37:23,680
JP Morgan Chase over $100 million fraud
13749
11:37:21,916 --> 11:37:27,040
detection and financial crime
13750
11:37:23,680 --> 11:37:29,916
prevention. Morgan Stanley over $50
13751
11:37:27,040 --> 11:37:34,720
million risk management and regulatory
13752
11:37:29,916 --> 11:37:36,880
compliance. Airbus over $75 million
13753
11:37:34,720 --> 11:37:39,596
supply chain optimization and
13754
11:37:36,880 --> 11:37:43,756
manufacturing analytics.
13755
11:37:39,596 --> 11:37:46,400
Merc Pharmaceuticals over $60 million
13756
11:37:43,756 --> 11:37:49,276
drug discovery analytics and clinical
13757
11:37:46,400 --> 11:37:53,840
trial data integration.
13758
11:37:49,276 --> 11:37:57,680
BP over $80 million oil field production
13759
11:37:53,840 --> 11:38:00,960
optimization and predictive maintenance.
13760
11:37:57,680 --> 11:38:02,800
Commercial revenue growth from 2015 to
13761
11:38:00,960 --> 11:38:06,080
2020.
13762
11:38:02,800 --> 11:38:09,756
In 2015, they got $600 million
13763
11:38:06,080 --> 11:38:14,240
commercial revenue. By 2016, the number
13764
11:38:09,756 --> 11:38:16,880
was around $800 billion. In 2017, they
13765
11:38:14,240 --> 11:38:20,320
reached $1.1 billion in commercial
13766
11:38:16,880 --> 11:38:24,240
revenue, and it became their peak year.
13767
11:38:20,320 --> 11:38:26,560
2018 made them hit the $750 million
13768
11:38:24,240 --> 11:38:30,040
mark, a temporary decline due to
13769
11:38:26,560 --> 11:38:30,040
customer churn.
13770
11:38:30,080 --> 11:38:35,840
In 2019, revenue was around $745
13771
11:38:34,240 --> 11:38:39,756
million,
13772
11:38:35,840 --> 11:38:43,680
and by 2020, they reached $1.1 billion.
13773
11:38:39,756 --> 11:38:46,800
Again, this recovery was driven by COVID
13774
11:38:43,680 --> 11:38:48,960
analytics contracts. Palanteer had
13775
11:38:46,800 --> 11:38:52,320
created a business model with two
13776
11:38:48,960 --> 11:38:54,160
enormous locked in customer bases, the
13777
11:38:52,320 --> 11:38:58,360
US government and the largest
13778
11:38:54,160 --> 11:38:58,360
corporations in the world.
13779
11:39:00,000 --> 11:39:05,116
But Palanteer's work, especially for
13780
11:39:02,320 --> 11:39:08,480
government agencies, attracted intense
13781
11:39:05,116 --> 11:39:11,520
controversy and moral criticism.
13782
11:39:08,480 --> 11:39:15,596
In 2019, they secured a contract with
13783
11:39:11,520 --> 11:39:18,160
ICE for $49 million. The purpose of the
13784
11:39:15,596 --> 11:39:20,560
contract was enforcement and removal
13785
11:39:18,160 --> 11:39:23,436
operations systems,
13786
11:39:20,560 --> 11:39:25,916
meaning a software used to identify,
13787
11:39:23,436 --> 11:39:28,640
track, and process undocumented
13788
11:39:25,916 --> 11:39:30,880
immigrants for deportation.
13789
11:39:28,640 --> 11:39:33,596
This project came with a controversy
13790
11:39:30,880 --> 11:39:35,680
attached. The software was used during
13791
11:39:33,596 --> 11:39:38,480
the family separation policy at the
13792
11:39:35,680 --> 11:39:41,840
southern border. Children separated from
13793
11:39:38,480 --> 11:39:44,000
their parents. Families torn apart.
13794
11:39:41,840 --> 11:39:46,720
Palanteer software helped make it
13795
11:39:44,000 --> 11:39:49,276
operationally possible. Hundreds of
13796
11:39:46,720 --> 11:39:51,680
Palunteer employees signed an internal
13797
11:39:49,276 --> 11:39:54,800
letter demanding the company cancel the
13798
11:39:51,680 --> 11:39:57,116
ICE contract.
13799
11:39:54,800 --> 11:40:00,160
They argued the company was enabling
13800
11:39:57,116 --> 11:40:03,916
human rights abuses. The and Karp's
13801
11:40:00,160 --> 11:40:05,916
response, absolute refusal. The contract
13802
11:40:03,916 --> 11:40:08,480
would continue.
13803
11:40:05,916 --> 11:40:10,800
Alex Kart gave a public statement saying
13804
11:40:08,480 --> 11:40:14,320
that they had chosen sides and that the
13805
11:40:10,800 --> 11:40:16,800
company supported American institutions.
13806
11:40:14,320 --> 11:40:19,116
But this was not the only controversy
13807
11:40:16,800 --> 11:40:22,480
Palanteer has faced.
13808
11:40:19,116 --> 11:40:25,680
Palanteer worked alongside the NYPD with
13809
11:40:22,480 --> 11:40:30,640
a contract estimated between 50 and $100
13810
11:40:25,680 --> 11:40:32,960
billion. The mission predictive policy.
13811
11:40:30,640 --> 11:40:35,520
They were asked to use historical crime
13812
11:40:32,960 --> 11:40:38,480
data to predict where future crimes will
13813
11:40:35,520 --> 11:40:41,200
occur and who is likely to commit them.
13814
11:40:38,480 --> 11:40:44,000
The controversy civil rights groups
13815
11:40:41,200 --> 11:40:46,880
argued that system perpetuated racial
13816
11:40:44,000 --> 11:40:49,840
bias. Minority neighborhoods were
13817
11:40:46,880 --> 11:40:52,080
flagged as high risk. Innocent people
13818
11:40:49,840 --> 11:40:55,360
were put under surveillance based on
13819
11:40:52,080 --> 11:40:58,960
algorithmic predictions.
13820
11:40:55,360 --> 11:41:01,436
Joe Lndale, Palanteer co-founder, had
13821
11:40:58,960 --> 11:41:03,040
made a personal investment in Cambridge
13822
11:41:01,436 --> 11:41:05,436
Analytica.
13823
11:41:03,040 --> 11:41:07,840
Multiple Palanteer employees on their
13824
11:41:05,436 --> 11:41:12,360
own time helped Cambridge Analytica
13825
11:41:07,840 --> 11:41:12,360
build data integration models.
13826
11:41:12,480 --> 11:41:17,520
Both companies use similar approaches to
13827
11:41:15,200 --> 11:41:19,040
data harvesting and psychological
13828
11:41:17,520 --> 11:41:20,880
profiling.
13829
11:41:19,040 --> 11:41:23,756
When the connection was exposed by
13830
11:41:20,880 --> 11:41:26,800
journalists, Palanteer claimed there was
13831
11:41:23,756 --> 11:41:30,080
no institutional relationship, just
13832
11:41:26,800 --> 11:41:32,400
coincidental personal connections.
13833
11:41:30,080 --> 11:41:36,480
But the damage to Palanteer's reputation
13834
11:41:32,400 --> 11:41:38,880
was done. The had built the panoptagon,
13835
11:41:36,480 --> 11:41:41,360
the allseeing eye of corporate and
13836
11:41:38,880 --> 11:41:44,800
government surveillance.
13837
11:41:41,360 --> 11:41:48,000
September the 30th, 2020.
13838
11:41:44,800 --> 11:41:49,916
After 17 years as a private company, one
13839
11:41:48,000 --> 11:41:52,640
of the longest periods of private
13840
11:41:49,916 --> 11:41:55,596
operation for any major tech company,
13841
11:41:52,640 --> 11:41:58,640
Palanteer finally goes public through a
13842
11:41:55,596 --> 11:42:01,520
direct listing.
13843
11:41:58,640 --> 11:42:04,400
They went public at $10 per share and
13844
11:42:01,520 --> 11:42:08,080
their market capitalization at market
13845
11:42:04,400 --> 11:42:11,360
open was $16 billion.
13846
11:42:08,080 --> 11:42:13,200
By the first day, shares were down 5%.
13847
11:42:11,360 --> 11:42:14,800
The stock was initially a
13848
11:42:13,200 --> 11:42:16,880
disappointment.
13849
11:42:14,800 --> 11:42:18,880
Investors were skeptical of the business
13850
11:42:16,880 --> 11:42:21,520
model, worried about customer
13851
11:42:18,880 --> 11:42:23,596
concentration, concerned about the
13852
11:42:21,520 --> 11:42:26,720
controversy.
13853
11:42:23,596 --> 11:42:29,756
But then COVID 19 created massive new
13854
11:42:26,720 --> 11:42:33,680
demand for Palanteer's capabilities.
13855
11:42:29,756 --> 11:42:36,080
2020 to 2021, Palanteer wins enormous
13856
11:42:33,680 --> 11:42:39,200
pandemic related government contracts
13857
11:42:36,080 --> 11:42:41,360
with governments across the world. The
13858
11:42:39,200 --> 11:42:44,640
pandemic proved that governments needed
13859
11:42:41,360 --> 11:42:47,680
Palanteer and the market responded.
13860
11:42:44,640 --> 11:42:53,596
By late 2021, Palanteer stock had
13861
11:42:47,680 --> 11:42:56,080
exploded, $29 per share at 190% gain
13862
11:42:53,596 --> 11:42:57,756
from the direct listing price. Market
13863
11:42:56,080 --> 11:43:01,320
capitalization
13864
11:42:57,756 --> 11:43:01,320
$60 billion.
13865
11:43:02,480 --> 11:43:09,436
Peter Theal stake approximately 7%
13866
11:43:06,080 --> 11:43:12,240
ownership worth $4.2 billion at the
13867
11:43:09,436 --> 11:43:14,640
peak. 2022
13868
11:43:12,240 --> 11:43:18,080
the tech crash hits Palanteer brutally
13869
11:43:14,640 --> 11:43:22,160
hard. Stock prices crash to $6 per
13870
11:43:18,080 --> 11:43:25,840
share, down 8% from the peak. Market cap
13871
11:43:22,160 --> 11:43:27,916
collapses to $13 billion.
13872
11:43:25,840 --> 11:43:33,756
The paper wealth from Palanteer
13873
11:43:27,916 --> 11:43:37,116
evaporates. Billions gone. 2023 to 2024,
13874
11:43:33,756 --> 11:43:39,520
the AI boom creates new opportunity.
13875
11:43:37,116 --> 11:43:40,960
Palanteer markets itself as the AI
13876
11:43:39,520 --> 11:43:42,560
platform for governments and
13877
11:43:40,960 --> 11:43:45,436
enterprises.
13878
11:43:42,560 --> 11:43:50,160
And they get major new contract wins.
13879
11:43:45,436 --> 11:43:52,240
The US Army invested $463 million for AI
13880
11:43:50,160 --> 11:43:55,200
powered battlefield analytics and
13881
11:43:52,240 --> 11:43:57,680
decision support systems.
13882
11:43:55,200 --> 11:44:02,400
Palanteer stock recovered
13883
11:43:57,680 --> 11:44:05,040
25 to 30 per share by 2024.
13884
11:44:02,400 --> 11:44:08,000
As of 2024, Peter Theel's current
13885
11:44:05,040 --> 11:44:10,480
Palanteer holdings are approximately 7%
13886
11:44:08,000 --> 11:44:14,560
of all shares with a current value
13887
11:44:10,480 --> 11:44:19,160
ranging from 3.8 to $4.5 billion
13888
11:44:14,560 --> 11:44:19,160
depending on daily stock price.
13889
11:44:20,720 --> 11:44:27,360
This makes Palunteer Field's single
13890
11:44:23,916 --> 11:44:30,640
largest source of personal wealth. In
13891
11:44:27,360 --> 11:44:32,720
2024, Palanteer's financial performance
13892
11:44:30,640 --> 11:44:35,520
was divided between government and
13893
11:44:32,720 --> 11:44:40,320
commercial revenue. The company's net
13894
11:44:35,520 --> 11:44:42,160
income was $2.5 billion annually. And as
13895
11:44:40,320 --> 11:44:44,080
big as the number is, this might
13896
11:44:42,160 --> 11:44:46,560
represent a future problem for the
13897
11:44:44,080 --> 11:44:48,720
company. If government budget cuts
13898
11:44:46,560 --> 11:44:50,240
happen, Palanteer is extremely
13899
11:44:48,720 --> 11:44:52,480
vulnerable.
13900
11:44:50,240 --> 11:44:55,596
Their entire business model depends on
13901
11:44:52,480 --> 11:44:57,756
continued government spending.
13902
11:44:55,596 --> 11:44:59,276
Here is Peter Theel's fundamental
13903
11:44:57,756 --> 11:45:01,276
contradiction.
13904
11:44:59,276 --> 11:45:03,200
The paradox at the heart of everything
13905
11:45:01,276 --> 11:45:05,436
he has built. He claims to be a
13906
11:45:03,200 --> 11:45:08,720
libertarian who values individual
13907
11:45:05,436 --> 11:45:10,400
freedom above all else. A man who
13908
11:45:08,720 --> 11:45:12,800
believes government power should be
13909
11:45:10,400 --> 11:45:16,000
minimal. A man who wrote that freedom
13910
11:45:12,800 --> 11:45:18,560
and democracy are incompatible.
13911
11:45:16,000 --> 11:45:21,200
Yet he built the most powerful private
13912
11:45:18,560 --> 11:45:24,000
surveillance technology company in human
13913
11:45:21,200 --> 11:45:25,756
history. A company that gives
13914
11:45:24,000 --> 11:45:29,200
governments and corporations
13915
11:45:25,756 --> 11:45:32,480
unprecedented ability to monitor, track,
13916
11:45:29,200 --> 11:45:34,880
predict, and control human behavior.
13917
11:45:32,480 --> 11:45:37,840
Palanteer's technical capabilities
13918
11:45:34,880 --> 11:45:40,240
include realtime tracking of individuals
13919
11:45:37,840 --> 11:45:43,240
across multiple data sources and
13920
11:45:40,240 --> 11:45:43,240
databases.
13921
11:45:43,840 --> 11:45:48,480
Predictive behavioral modeling that
13922
11:45:46,480 --> 11:45:51,756
forecasts what people will do before
13923
11:45:48,480 --> 11:45:54,160
they do it. Network analysis that maps
13924
11:45:51,756 --> 11:45:57,596
every person you have ever contacted
13925
11:45:54,160 --> 11:46:00,320
through any medium. Complete integration
13926
11:45:57,596 --> 11:46:03,840
of financial records. communication
13927
11:46:00,320 --> 11:46:07,116
metadata, location history, and social
13928
11:46:03,840 --> 11:46:09,040
relationship data into a single unified
13929
11:46:07,116 --> 11:46:11,596
profile.
13930
11:46:09,040 --> 11:46:13,916
Field's defense of this contradiction
13931
11:46:11,596 --> 11:46:18,160
was explaining that the alternative to
13932
11:46:13,916 --> 11:46:20,720
Palanteer is not no surveillance.
13933
11:46:18,160 --> 11:46:22,960
The alternative is worse surveillance
13934
11:46:20,720 --> 11:46:25,916
performed by incompetent government
13935
11:46:22,960 --> 11:46:30,040
bureaucrats using decades old technology
13936
11:46:25,916 --> 11:46:30,040
that does not work properly.
13937
11:46:31,596 --> 11:46:38,080
The critics's response was obvious. They
13938
11:46:34,480 --> 11:46:42,240
told Theo he had built the panopticon,
13939
11:46:38,080 --> 11:46:44,320
the architecture of total surveillance.
13940
11:46:42,240 --> 11:46:46,640
A system allowing governments around the
13941
11:46:44,320 --> 11:46:49,520
world to use their citizens information
13942
11:46:46,640 --> 11:46:52,000
to control them, not a system to protect
13943
11:46:49,520 --> 11:46:54,400
them, said the critics.
13944
11:46:52,000 --> 11:46:57,200
Palanteer now operates in dozens of
13945
11:46:54,400 --> 11:47:00,080
countries worldwide. the United States,
13946
11:46:57,200 --> 11:47:02,960
the United Kingdom, Germany, France,
13947
11:47:00,080 --> 11:47:05,116
Australia, and even Japan.
13948
11:47:02,960 --> 11:47:08,160
The company has some controversial
13949
11:47:05,116 --> 11:47:11,116
international clients, some confirmed,
13950
11:47:08,160 --> 11:47:14,640
some alleged, but the total estimated
13951
11:47:11,116 --> 11:47:19,116
value of all global contracts lifetime,
13952
11:47:14,640 --> 11:47:21,916
over $10 billion in contract value.
13953
11:47:19,116 --> 11:47:25,040
Palanteer is Peter Theel's most
13954
11:47:21,916 --> 11:47:28,160
important company. Not because of its
13955
11:47:25,040 --> 11:47:30,560
valuation, though that is substantial.
13956
11:47:28,160 --> 11:47:34,240
Not because of its revenue, though that
13957
11:47:30,560 --> 11:47:36,560
is significant. Palanteer is important
13958
11:47:34,240 --> 11:47:39,520
because it reveals the truth about
13959
11:47:36,560 --> 11:47:42,160
Theo's worldview. It is the bridge
13960
11:47:39,520 --> 11:47:45,840
between his libertarian philosophy and
13961
11:47:42,160 --> 11:47:48,800
his authoritarian reality. He claims to
13962
11:47:45,840 --> 11:47:51,520
want freedom from government control.
13963
11:47:48,800 --> 11:47:53,680
But Palanteer gives governments
13964
11:47:51,520 --> 11:47:56,320
unprecedented control over their
13965
11:47:53,680 --> 11:47:59,360
citizens. The resolution of this
13966
11:47:56,320 --> 11:48:02,720
apparent contradiction, Peter Theel
13967
11:47:59,360 --> 11:48:06,800
believes in freedom for the elite and
13968
11:48:02,720 --> 11:48:09,040
surveillance for everyone else.
13969
11:48:06,800 --> 11:48:12,320
In his vision of the world, there are
13970
11:48:09,040 --> 11:48:14,480
rulers and there are the ruled. There
13971
11:48:12,320 --> 11:48:17,200
are the people who make the decisions
13972
11:48:14,480 --> 11:48:19,756
and the people who are managed.
13973
11:48:17,200 --> 11:48:23,116
Palanteer is the enforcement mechanism
13974
11:48:19,756 --> 11:48:26,400
for that hierarchy. The technology that
13975
11:48:23,116 --> 11:48:28,640
ensures the rulers can see everything.
13976
11:48:26,400 --> 11:48:31,680
The system that makes resistance
13977
11:48:28,640 --> 11:48:34,800
impossible because privacy no longer
13978
11:48:31,680 --> 11:48:38,080
exists. And Peter Theal sits at the
13979
11:48:34,800 --> 11:48:41,200
center of that eye, watching the world,
13980
11:48:38,080 --> 11:48:44,916
seeing everything. The architect of the
13981
11:48:41,200 --> 11:48:44,916
surveillance state.
13982
11:48:47,360 --> 11:48:53,116
In 2016, Peter Theal made an investment
13983
11:48:51,116 --> 11:48:56,480
that every other major technology
13984
11:48:53,116 --> 11:48:58,800
investor avoided.
13985
11:48:56,480 --> 11:49:01,040
While his peers in Silicon Valley were
13986
11:48:58,800 --> 11:49:04,800
contributing millions to the opposing
13987
11:49:01,040 --> 11:49:07,520
campaign, Theel wrote a check for $1.25
13988
11:49:04,800 --> 11:49:09,040
million to Donald Trump's presidential
13989
11:49:07,520 --> 11:49:12,000
campaign.
13990
11:49:09,040 --> 11:49:15,436
This was not ideology. This was
13991
11:49:12,000 --> 11:49:18,560
portfolio diversification.
13992
11:49:15,436 --> 11:49:23,200
Phil has always invested in contrarian
13993
11:49:18,560 --> 11:49:25,916
positions. When everyone zigs, he zags.
13994
11:49:23,200 --> 11:49:28,880
When consensus forms in one direction,
13995
11:49:25,916 --> 11:49:32,800
he looks for asymmetric opportunities in
13996
11:49:28,880 --> 11:49:35,360
the other. The 2006 donation gave him
13997
11:49:32,800 --> 11:49:38,640
something money usually cannot buy in
13998
11:49:35,360 --> 11:49:42,000
Silicon Valley. Direct access to
13999
11:49:38,640 --> 11:49:45,596
executive power. the return on that
14000
11:49:42,000 --> 11:49:48,160
$1.25 million investment,
14001
11:49:45,596 --> 11:49:51,596
a seat on the presidential transition
14002
11:49:48,160 --> 11:49:54,800
team, input on federal technology
14003
11:49:51,596 --> 11:49:57,596
policy, direct communication channels to
14004
11:49:54,800 --> 11:50:01,116
the White House, credibility as a
14005
11:49:57,596 --> 11:50:03,756
Washington power broker,
14006
11:50:01,116 --> 11:50:05,520
and most measurably, Palanteer's
14007
11:50:03,756 --> 11:50:08,960
government contracts increased
14008
11:50:05,520 --> 11:50:11,276
substantially during this period.
14009
11:50:08,960 --> 11:50:14,560
But the's most significant political
14010
11:50:11,276 --> 11:50:16,080
investments came in the 2022 midterm
14011
11:50:14,560 --> 11:50:19,840
elections.
14012
11:50:16,080 --> 11:50:23,360
Two candidates, both former employees,
14013
11:50:19,840 --> 11:50:25,276
both running for United States Senate.
14014
11:50:23,360 --> 11:50:28,160
The financial commitment was
14015
11:50:25,276 --> 11:50:30,560
unprecedented in scale.
14016
11:50:28,160 --> 11:50:32,720
Vance had worked at Theel's venture
14017
11:50:30,560 --> 11:50:35,756
capital firm before writing his
14018
11:50:32,720 --> 11:50:37,840
best-selling memoir. Fields total
14019
11:50:35,756 --> 11:50:42,800
financial commitment
14020
11:50:37,840 --> 11:50:46,720
direct campaign contribution $15 million
14021
11:50:42,800 --> 11:50:50,480
super PAC expenditures $5 million
14022
11:50:46,720 --> 11:50:53,680
combined investment $20 million.
14023
11:50:50,480 --> 11:50:56,160
This set a record as the largest single
14024
11:50:53,680 --> 11:50:59,596
donor contribution to an individual
14025
11:50:56,160 --> 11:51:02,720
Senate campaign in American history. The
14026
11:50:59,596 --> 11:51:06,400
outcome Vance won by six percentage
14027
11:51:02,720 --> 11:51:09,200
points. Masters had worked directly for
14028
11:51:06,400 --> 11:51:12,320
Theel as chief operating officer at
14029
11:51:09,200 --> 11:51:14,240
Theel Capital. Theel's financial
14030
11:51:12,320 --> 11:51:17,276
commitment to his campaign was a
14031
11:51:14,240 --> 11:51:20,400
combined investment of $20 million. But
14032
11:51:17,276 --> 11:51:22,480
unlike Vance, Masters lost by 5
14033
11:51:20,400 --> 11:51:26,080
percentage points.
14034
11:51:22,480 --> 11:51:30,000
The total 2022 midterm investment was
14035
11:51:26,080 --> 11:51:31,840
over $40 million in two Senate races.
14036
11:51:30,000 --> 11:51:34,080
two different candidates that would have
14037
11:51:31,840 --> 11:51:37,360
allowed him to be in direct touch with
14038
11:51:34,080 --> 11:51:39,756
power at different chambers and stages.
14039
11:51:37,360 --> 11:51:42,160
For context, the average competitive
14040
11:51:39,756 --> 11:51:45,916
Senate race costs approximately $10
14041
11:51:42,160 --> 11:51:50,520
million total. Peter Theal invested four
14042
11:51:45,916 --> 11:51:50,520
times that amount on two races.
14043
11:51:51,200 --> 11:51:57,916
It's July 2024. JD Vance is selected as
14044
11:51:55,756 --> 11:52:00,800
the Republican vice presidential
14045
11:51:57,916 --> 11:52:03,436
candidate. From a pure investment
14046
11:52:00,800 --> 11:52:06,400
analysis perspective, this transforms
14047
11:52:03,436 --> 11:52:08,880
the return profile on Theo's $20 million
14048
11:52:06,400 --> 11:52:11,200
commitment. He has considered the
14049
11:52:08,880 --> 11:52:15,116
potential financial implications if this
14050
11:52:11,200 --> 11:52:17,680
ticket wins and he gets access to
14051
11:52:15,116 --> 11:52:21,040
executive branch decisionmaking for 8
14052
11:52:17,680 --> 11:52:24,480
years. influence over federal contract
14053
11:52:21,040 --> 11:52:27,436
allocation across multiple agencies.
14054
11:52:24,480 --> 11:52:31,680
Input on technology regulation affecting
14055
11:52:27,436 --> 11:52:34,000
the portfolio companies.
14056
11:52:31,680 --> 11:52:36,080
If we consider what's the estimated
14057
11:52:34,000 --> 11:52:39,436
return on investment for Palanteer's
14058
11:52:36,080 --> 11:52:41,680
government business, what we see is
14059
11:52:39,436 --> 11:52:44,480
current annual government revenue of
14060
11:52:41,680 --> 11:52:47,200
$1.5 billion.
14061
11:52:44,480 --> 11:52:50,480
potential additional contract value over
14062
11:52:47,200 --> 11:52:53,480
eight years conservatively 5 to10
14063
11:52:50,480 --> 11:52:53,480
billion
14064
11:52:53,520 --> 11:53:00,160
and other defense companies in the
14065
11:52:56,560 --> 11:53:01,840
network potential 3 to5 billion in
14066
11:53:00,160 --> 11:53:04,320
contracts
14067
11:53:01,840 --> 11:53:07,840
regulatory treatment of cryptocurrency
14068
11:53:04,320 --> 11:53:10,840
holdings value potentially in tens of
14069
11:53:07,840 --> 11:53:10,840
billions.
14070
11:53:12,560 --> 11:53:18,640
The theoretical return of those 20
14071
11:53:15,116 --> 11:53:22,000
million invested is potentially 15 to 20
14072
11:53:18,640 --> 11:53:26,000
billion captured across the portfolio.
14073
11:53:22,000 --> 11:53:29,680
That represents a potential of 750 to
14074
11:53:26,000 --> 11:53:32,000
1,000 times return. By comparison,
14075
11:53:29,680 --> 11:53:34,320
Theel's Facebook investment returned
14076
11:53:32,000 --> 11:53:36,800
2,000 times.
14077
11:53:34,320 --> 11:53:42,160
To sum it up, the complete political
14078
11:53:36,800 --> 11:53:44,480
spending of the from 2016 to 2022 is 70
14079
11:53:42,160 --> 11:53:47,436
to $80 million.
14080
11:53:44,480 --> 11:53:50,720
For context, Amazon spends 20 million
14081
11:53:47,436 --> 11:53:53,436
annually on lobbying. Meta spends 20
14082
11:53:50,720 --> 11:53:57,200
million annual on lobbying. Google
14083
11:53:53,436 --> 11:53:59,840
spends 12 million annually on lobbying.
14084
11:53:57,200 --> 11:54:02,800
Field's approach is different. Rather
14085
11:53:59,840 --> 11:54:04,960
than ongoing lobbying expenditures, he
14086
11:54:02,800 --> 11:54:07,436
makes concentrated investments in
14087
11:54:04,960 --> 11:54:13,000
individual candidates who potentially
14088
11:54:07,436 --> 11:54:13,000
provide access for years or decades.
14089
11:54:13,040 --> 11:54:18,080
It is the venture capital model applied
14090
11:54:15,520 --> 11:54:21,040
to politics. Make early stage
14091
11:54:18,080 --> 11:54:23,520
investments in promising candidates.
14092
11:54:21,040 --> 11:54:26,800
Provide sufficient capital to help them
14093
11:54:23,520 --> 11:54:29,360
win. Capture value through long-term
14094
11:54:26,800 --> 11:54:32,000
relationships and access.
14095
11:54:29,360 --> 11:54:34,800
The candidates Theel has supported now
14096
11:54:32,000 --> 11:54:37,276
serve on key committees.
14097
11:54:34,800 --> 11:54:38,880
Technology regulation, defense
14098
11:54:37,276 --> 11:54:41,756
appropriations,
14099
11:54:38,880 --> 11:54:44,560
intelligence oversight, banking and
14100
11:54:41,756 --> 11:54:46,800
financial services.
14101
11:54:44,560 --> 11:54:49,276
Precisely the committees that oversee
14102
11:54:46,800 --> 11:54:51,680
industries where the has billions
14103
11:54:49,276 --> 11:54:54,480
invested and where he can use some
14104
11:54:51,680 --> 11:54:57,116
privileged information.
14105
11:54:54,480 --> 11:55:00,960
Is political investment a good use of
14106
11:54:57,116 --> 11:55:00,960
capital? The mass of1052673
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