All language subtitles for 史上最大金融風暴來襲！Nvidia和OpenAI玩火自焚？33兆美元財富或將一夜蒸發！ [Chinese (Taiwan)] [DownloadYoutubeSubtitles.com]
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1
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2万亿美元的真金白银
2
00:00:01,900 --> 00:00:03,800
正疯狂涌入AI赛道
3
00:00:03,900 --> 00:00:06,366
但这笔钱最终只有两个结局
4
00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:08,200
要么让股市彻底狂飙
5
00:00:08,533 --> 00:00:10,700
要么把整个市场拖入深渊
6
00:00:10,866 --> 00:00:11,933
最可怕的是
7
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现在看来
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00:00:12,933 --> 00:00:14,700
后者的概率要大得多
9
00:00:14,933 --> 00:00:16,766
而且这绝对不是什么硅谷
10
00:00:16,766 --> 00:00:18,733
大佬们关起门来的神仙打架
11
00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:20,700
它会直接波及你的钱包
12
00:00:20,866 --> 00:00:22,066
根据最近的数据
13
00:00:22,066 --> 00:00:23,533
2026年的今天
14
00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:26,166
62%的美国人手里都持有股票
15
00:00:26,166 --> 00:00:28,366
这是过去20年来的最高水平
16
00:00:28,666 --> 00:00:30,300
你以为自己买的是什么稳健的
17
00:00:30,300 --> 00:00:33,800
养老金401K或者标普500指数基金
18
00:00:33,933 --> 00:00:36,066
你觉得把钱丢进去吃被动
19
00:00:36,066 --> 00:00:38,300
收益是最安全的长期策略
20
00:00:38,666 --> 00:00:40,066
毕竟经历了千禧年的
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互联网泡沫和2008年的次贷危机
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00:00:42,466 --> 00:00:44,300
大部分人学到的教训就是
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只要一直拿着标普500
24
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总能回本
25
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但现在的市场早就不是
26
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你以为的那个市场了
27
00:00:50,266 --> 00:00:51,866
你买入标普500
28
00:00:51,900 --> 00:00:54,666
本质上就是在押注极少数几家
29
00:00:54,666 --> 00:00:57,666
靠AI续命的公司能永远涨下去
30
00:00:57,933 --> 00:01:00,666
标普500指数里52%的权重
31
00:01:00,733 --> 00:01:03,700
现在死死集中在区区20家公司手里
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00:01:03,700 --> 00:01:06,466
而这些公司几乎全在蹭AI的热度
33
00:01:06,733 --> 00:01:09,400
每个月你的养老金账户扣款有
34
00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:12,466
一大半其实是直接送去给英伟达
35
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微软谷歌这些巨头搞AI军备竞赛了
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不管你懂不懂技术
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不管你乐不乐意
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你已经被强行绑上了
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这辆没有刹车的跑车
40
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一旦翻车
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后果是毁灭性的
42
00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:25,333
这不仅仅是对冲基金经理
43
00:01:25,333 --> 00:01:27,066
在华尔街跌倒那么简单
44
00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:29,200
受损最惨重的会是年收入
45
00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:31,333
3万到8万美金的普通人
46
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是老师护士仓库工人和快递员
47
00:01:35,666 --> 00:01:37,800
那些拿着公务员养老金的人
48
00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:40,133
那些地方市政员工的救命钱
49
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全都在填AI公司挖出来的这个无底洞
50
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如果这套商业逻辑这么脆弱
51
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那到底是什么力量在苦苦
52
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支撑着这场万亿级别的AI狂欢
53
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答案是两个字做局
54
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更准确的说
55
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叫循环融资
56
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一旦你搞懂了这套玩法
57
00:01:56,366 --> 00:01:57,166
你会觉得
58
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这就跟一场合法的
59
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庞氏骗局没什么区别
60
00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:01,866
咱们先把时间线捋清楚
61
00:02:02,066 --> 00:02:04,066
红杉资本的合伙人David camp之
62
00:02:04,066 --> 00:02:05,966
前抛出了一个让整个科技圈
63
00:02:05,966 --> 00:02:07,866
炸锅的6,000亿美元问题
64
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这笔账其实很简单
65
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你看英伟达现在的显卡卖的多疯狂
66
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再把买显卡建数据中心的成本
67
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电费冷却费备用发电机的钱算进去
68
00:02:17,766 --> 00:02:19,200
那些买算力的大本营
69
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比如亚马逊AWS微软Azure谷歌云
70
00:02:23,566 --> 00:02:26,066
他们为了回本并且赚到一半的毛利
71
00:02:26,266 --> 00:02:28,766
整个AI行业每年必须得有6,000
72
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亿美元的真实收入进账
73
00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:32,566
但这6,000亿的收入在哪呢
74
00:02:32,666 --> 00:02:34,133
实际上整个行业的收入连
75
00:02:34,133 --> 00:02:35,533
这个数字的零头都够呛
76
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目前也就1,000亿左右
77
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中间这巨大的落差就是个超级泡沫
78
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为了填补这个落差
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让故事看起来没那么糟
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硅谷巨头们发明了
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一套左手倒右手的绝活
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先看英伟达
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就在2026年最近的这波操作里
84
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英伟达狂砸了差不多
85
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400亿美元在AI基础设施投资上
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他们光是给Openai就投了300亿美元
87
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不仅如此
88
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他们还重金投资了Anthropic
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00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:02,866
马斯克的XAI
90
00:03:02,900 --> 00:03:05,533
甚至是那些搞光纤和数据中心的公司
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表面上看
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这是大佬在扶持生态对吧
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但你往深了看
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英伟达投给open a i
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这300亿open a i拿去干嘛了
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转头又去买了英伟达的下一代AI芯片
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钱从英伟达的账上划出去
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在外面转了一圈
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最后又以销售收入的名义
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回到了英伟达的财报里
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英伟达的营收数据看起来继续爆炸
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Openai看起来也有了顶级金主的背书
103
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两边的估值直接起飞
104
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在这整个流程里
105
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根本没有哪怕一个真正
106
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的终端消费者掏钱买单
107
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但数据就是好看
108
00:03:37,966 --> 00:03:38,933
再来看微软
109
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微软这些年往open AI身上砸了上百亿
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甚至几百亿美元
111
00:03:43,466 --> 00:03:45,100
但这里面有个公开的秘密
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这些钱大部分根本不是现金
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而是Azure云服务的代金券
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这就相当于微软给了
115
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Openai一张巨额礼品卡
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这张卡只能在微软自家的店里消费
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open AI可以把这笔钱算
118
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成自己融到的资本
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对外吹嘘自己估值又涨了
120
00:04:00,733 --> 00:04:02,266
但你没法用云服务
121
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代金券去给员工发工资
122
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你付不了硅谷昂贵的办公室租金
123
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交不起律师费
124
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所以真正流动的现金少得可怜
125
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而且微软贼得很
126
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在Openai的协议里
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一旦Openai开始赚钱
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前期的利润里有75%要先还给微软
129
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直到微软回本之后
130
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这个比例再降到49%
131
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说白了
132
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微软就是把自己的算力当成钱借出去
133
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然后把这笔假钱当成
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自己的云服务收入
135
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做进财报里
136
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这不仅是循环融资
137
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这连营收的质量都是掺水的
138
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要是这只停留在两家公司之间
139
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那还算不上系统性风险
140
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但现在这套连环套已经把
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大半个科技圈都绑进去了
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除了open A i和微软
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咱们看看今年刚上市
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估值已经飙破500亿美元的Corwave
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这是一家专门做AI云算力的公司
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英伟达不仅是Coralwave的股东
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最近在2026年初又追加
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了20亿美元的投资
149
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然后呢英伟达早就跟Coralwave签了协议
150
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到2032年之前要买他们
151
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60多亿美元的服务
152
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不仅如此
153
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Corwave手里的一大堆大客户是谁
154
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是微软微软占据了Corwave最近
155
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一个季度2/3的销售额
156
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而微软本身又是
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英伟达最大的客户之一
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至于open a i
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他们手里还握着AMD的股份
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甲骨文也跟open a i签了
161
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数十亿美元的算力大单
162
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你看明白这个死循环了吗
163
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科技巨头云服务商芯片厂AI初创公司
164
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他们形成了一个闭环
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a投钱给b
166
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b拿钱去买c的服务器
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c再去买a的芯片
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大家都在互相买对方的服务
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互相拉抬对方的估值
170
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只要这个圈子里的钱还在转
171
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大家就都是营收翻倍
172
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估值破万亿的超级独角兽
173
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Morningstar的分析师最近就把这事点破了
174
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在AI行业筹备IPO的当下
175
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这种循环交易是最致命的雷区
176
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因为这不是普通的债务关系
177
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一般的商业贷款
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你欠银行钱
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银行只是个债主
180
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但在AI圈
181
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给你写支票的投资人
182
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同时也是找你要算力费用的供应商
183
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一旦哪天Openai或者别的大
184
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模型公司营收不达标
185
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拿不出钱来支付未来的算力合同
186
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这帮巨头谁也跑不掉
187
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当泡沫破裂的时候
188
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他们连分摊风险的下家都找不到
189
00:06:19,566 --> 00:06:21,366
因为大家都在一根绳子上
190
00:06:21,466 --> 00:06:22,466
更疯狂的是
191
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为了掩盖真实负债
192
00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:25,700
巨头们的手段极其狠辣
193
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比如Meta在2025年底的操作
194
00:06:28,133 --> 00:06:30,100
直接发了300亿美元的公司债
195
00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:32,766
同时又通过摩根士丹利的结构性合资
196
00:06:32,766 --> 00:06:36,100
企业搞了另外300亿美元的表外债务
197
00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:37,366
什么是表外债务
198
00:06:37,366 --> 00:06:39,766
就是不写在明面资产负债表上的账
199
00:06:39,966 --> 00:06:41,366
他们为什么要藏起来
200
00:06:41,366 --> 00:06:43,333
因为AI的基建是个无底洞
201
00:06:43,500 --> 00:06:45,300
如果全都摊在阳光下
202
00:06:45,300 --> 00:06:47,000
投资者立马就会被吓跑
203
00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:48,666
这种循环融资的本质
204
00:06:48,933 --> 00:06:51,200
就是桌子上其实并没有多少真金白银
205
00:06:51,466 --> 00:06:53,000
全是一大堆我欠你
206
00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:54,366
你欠我的白条
207
00:06:54,500 --> 00:06:56,200
几家巨头互相打白条
208
00:06:56,300 --> 00:06:57,600
赌的是未来有一天
209
00:06:57,666 --> 00:06:59,566
真正的消费者或者企业能
210
00:06:59,566 --> 00:07:01,500
拿着几十万亿的真钱进场
211
00:07:01,700 --> 00:07:03,300
把这些白条全兑现了
212
00:07:03,300 --> 00:07:04,900
在这个幻想破灭之前
213
00:07:04,900 --> 00:07:07,166
财报上的营收看起来都会无比惊艳
214
00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:09,100
但只要有一家公司顶不住
215
00:07:09,100 --> 00:07:11,666
或者大家突然都想把白条换成现金
216
00:07:11,700 --> 00:07:15,166
这个击鼓传花的游戏就会在瞬间崩盘
217
00:07:15,533 --> 00:07:18,000
摩根士丹利的预测早就把话挑明了
218
00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,066
从2025年到2028年
219
00:07:20,066 --> 00:07:21,666
全球花在数据中心上的
220
00:07:21,666 --> 00:07:23,666
钱会高达3万亿美元
221
00:07:23,700 --> 00:07:25,133
这里面有8,000亿是靠
222
00:07:25,133 --> 00:07:26,666
私人信贷融资来的
223
00:07:26,666 --> 00:07:28,066
这些钱不是科技公司
224
00:07:28,066 --> 00:07:29,733
靠卖产品赚来的利润
225
00:07:29,733 --> 00:07:30,800
而是借来的债
226
00:07:31,100 --> 00:07:34,933
是用投资者的钱去买其他公司的设备
227
00:07:35,133 --> 00:07:38,333
所以如果有这么多巨无霸在后面撑腰
228
00:07:38,333 --> 00:07:40,733
你可能会觉得Openai这种行业
229
00:07:40,733 --> 00:07:43,800
头部肯定穷的只剩下钱了对吧
230
00:07:43,900 --> 00:07:45,133
事实恰恰相反
231
00:07:45,133 --> 00:07:46,866
看看最新的财务数据
232
00:07:46,933 --> 00:07:48,400
简直让人头皮发麻
233
00:07:48,700 --> 00:07:52,166
2024年open AI营收37亿美元
234
00:07:52,266 --> 00:07:53,533
亏损50亿美元
235
00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:55,100
到了2025年底
236
00:07:55,100 --> 00:07:56,666
他们吹嘘自己的年化
237
00:07:56,666 --> 00:07:58,600
营收跑到了200亿美元
238
00:07:58,666 --> 00:07:59,800
听起来很吓人
239
00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:01,166
增长了3倍多
240
00:08:01,166 --> 00:08:02,466
但代价是什么
241
00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:04,600
代价是亏损的黑洞越来越大
242
00:08:04,666 --> 00:08:07,133
微软的SEC文件直接把老底揭了
243
00:08:07,133 --> 00:08:09,933
仅仅在2025年7月到9月这一个季度
244
00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:12,200
Openai就亏了120亿美元
245
00:08:12,333 --> 00:08:14,533
他们自己内部的财务预测更离谱
246
00:08:14,700 --> 00:08:18,133
预计2026年这一年就要净亏损140亿美元
247
00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:20,366
从2023年到2028年
248
00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:23,266
累计亏损要达到440亿美元
249
00:08:23,300 --> 00:08:25,066
甚至有投行算的更狠
250
00:08:25,133 --> 00:08:26,333
德意志银行觉得
251
00:08:26,333 --> 00:08:27,933
他们在真正盈利之前
252
00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:31,266
现金流窟窿会砸出1,430亿美元
253
00:08:31,566 --> 00:08:32,766
人类商业史上
254
00:08:32,866 --> 00:08:34,966
从来没有任何一家初创公司敢
255
00:08:34,966 --> 00:08:37,066
在没有成熟商业模式的情况下
256
00:08:37,133 --> 00:08:38,200
亏成这个样子
257
00:08:38,366 --> 00:08:39,966
优步当年烧钱抢市场
258
00:08:39,966 --> 00:08:42,200
好歹抢的是实实在在的打车份额
259
00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:45,200
但Openai现在是烧钱在做算力填空题
260
00:08:45,466 --> 00:08:46,333
更要命的是
261
00:08:46,333 --> 00:08:48,266
chatgpt虽然有8亿用户
262
00:08:48,266 --> 00:08:51,500
但真正愿意掏钱付费的只有区区5%
263
00:08:51,566 --> 00:08:54,700
剩下的95%全在白嫖昂贵的算力
264
00:08:54,733 --> 00:08:58,100
而且跟谷歌Meta亚马逊不一样
265
00:08:58,200 --> 00:08:59,800
Openai没有退路
266
00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:01,066
谷歌如果不做AI
267
00:09:01,066 --> 00:09:02,400
还有搜索广告兜底
268
00:09:02,533 --> 00:09:04,400
亚马逊还有电商和AWS
269
00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:06,366
Meta有Instagram的广告帝国
270
00:09:06,366 --> 00:09:07,933
而Openai只有一条命
271
00:09:07,933 --> 00:09:08,866
就是大模型
272
00:09:08,900 --> 00:09:10,500
这就是为什么Sam Altman
273
00:09:10,500 --> 00:09:12,200
整天在外面到处找钱
274
00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,166
甚至是找中东的主权基金
275
00:09:14,466 --> 00:09:16,266
因为这台机器只要一停下来
276
00:09:16,266 --> 00:09:17,266
不烧钱了
277
00:09:17,266 --> 00:09:18,300
马上就会死
278
00:09:18,300 --> 00:09:19,666
他们甚至已经被逼到开始
279
00:09:19,666 --> 00:09:21,366
考虑在产品里加广告了
280
00:09:21,666 --> 00:09:24,166
而这曾是奥特曼自己说过的最下策
281
00:09:24,333 --> 00:09:26,333
所以现在摆在市场面前的
282
00:09:26,333 --> 00:09:28,100
是一个极其畸形的怪物
283
00:09:28,100 --> 00:09:30,500
一边是巨头们左手倒右手
284
00:09:30,500 --> 00:09:33,600
用惊人的资本支出撑起华丽的财报
285
00:09:33,866 --> 00:09:36,000
另一边是真实的亏损正在以
286
00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:38,100
每天几千万美元的速度失血
287
00:09:38,366 --> 00:09:40,466
既然这帮巨头在疯狂砸钱
288
00:09:40,466 --> 00:09:42,333
连财报都做的这么魔幻
289
00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:43,366
那按理说
290
00:09:43,366 --> 00:09:45,900
这几百上千亿的资金砸下去
291
00:09:45,900 --> 00:09:48,000
总得在企业端听个响吧
292
00:09:48,066 --> 00:09:49,666
比如大大提高了生产力
293
00:09:49,666 --> 00:09:51,566
或者直接取代了一半的员工
294
00:09:51,566 --> 00:09:53,600
给企业省了巨额成本
295
00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:54,700
你想多了
296
00:09:54,700 --> 00:09:57,500
这就引出了整个AI狂欢中最要命
297
00:09:57,500 --> 00:09:59,266
也最被打脸的一个数据
298
00:09:59,300 --> 00:10:01,500
时间倒回2025年8月
299
00:10:01,533 --> 00:10:03,533
有一份本来应该直接霸榜
300
00:10:03,533 --> 00:10:05,766
全球财经头条的报告发布了
301
00:10:05,766 --> 00:10:06,866
但诡异的是
302
00:10:06,866 --> 00:10:08,900
主流媒体对它只字未提
303
00:10:09,133 --> 00:10:12,100
这份报告深度追踪了数百家大型企业
304
00:10:12,133 --> 00:10:14,800
这些企业在生成式AI上总共砸
305
00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,566
了300-400亿美元的真金白银
306
00:10:17,700 --> 00:10:18,933
你猜结果怎么着
307
00:10:19,133 --> 00:10:21,200
95%的受访企业表示
308
00:10:21,266 --> 00:10:23,566
他们在AI上的投资没有看到
309
00:10:23,566 --> 00:10:25,400
任何可衡量的投资回报
310
00:10:26,100 --> 00:10:27,166
别急着反驳
311
00:10:27,300 --> 00:10:29,666
我知道你平时用大模型写个周报
312
00:10:29,733 --> 00:10:31,266
翻译个邮件觉得挺爽
313
00:10:31,333 --> 00:10:33,166
但站在企业老板的角度
314
00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:34,966
他们算的是另一本账
315
00:10:35,133 --> 00:10:37,666
花大价钱买了企业版的AI服务
316
00:10:37,700 --> 00:10:39,166
结果发现这玩意根本
317
00:10:39,166 --> 00:10:40,700
不能完全替代人工
318
00:10:40,966 --> 00:10:43,100
它总是会一本正经的胡说八道
319
00:10:43,100 --> 00:10:44,800
也就是所谓的AI幻觉
320
00:10:45,066 --> 00:10:46,900
企业实际的用法是什么
321
00:10:46,900 --> 00:10:49,366
是员工用AI生成一个草稿
322
00:10:49,500 --> 00:10:51,100
然后还得专门安排人去
323
00:10:51,100 --> 00:10:54,133
一行一行地人工审查修改
324
00:10:54,166 --> 00:10:55,566
最后再手动应用
325
00:10:55,666 --> 00:10:57,366
它确实能加快一点点速度
326
00:10:57,366 --> 00:10:58,733
但最终干活的
327
00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:00,000
担责任的还是人
328
00:11:00,166 --> 00:11:01,600
老板掏了买AI的钱
329
00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:03,400
但裁不掉对应的员工成本
330
00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:04,500
根本降不下来
331
00:11:04,500 --> 00:11:05,800
美国人口普查局的数据
332
00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:07,400
更是直接扯下了遮羞布
333
00:11:07,466 --> 00:11:09,400
大型企业对AI的采用率
334
00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:11,600
其实在2025年就已经见顶了
335
00:11:11,766 --> 00:11:13,733
甚至开始出现了下滑的趋势
336
00:11:13,966 --> 00:11:15,466
大家尝鲜之后发现
337
00:11:15,466 --> 00:11:17,333
这玩意是个烧钱的吞金兽
338
00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:19,400
还不如招几个实习生好使
339
00:11:19,566 --> 00:11:22,300
这就形成了一个极其荒谬的商业陷阱
340
00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:23,800
传统的软件行业
341
00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:25,166
比如微软卖office
342
00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:27,200
或者Adobe卖修图软件
343
00:11:27,333 --> 00:11:28,733
开发成本是固定的
344
00:11:28,733 --> 00:11:30,100
多卖一份授权
345
00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:31,466
成本几乎为零
346
00:11:31,466 --> 00:11:32,500
全是纯利润
347
00:11:32,733 --> 00:11:34,266
但AI大模型不一样
348
00:11:34,333 --> 00:11:36,500
它不是一次性开发就完事的
349
00:11:36,500 --> 00:11:39,133
只要用户在对话框里敲下回车键
350
00:11:39,166 --> 00:11:41,900
后端的GPU池子就得轰鸣着算一次
351
00:11:42,100 --> 00:11:43,400
算力就是电费
352
00:11:43,533 --> 00:11:45,000
算力就是芯片的折旧
353
00:11:45,133 --> 00:11:47,000
这就导致了一个要命的死结
354
00:11:47,300 --> 00:11:48,800
AI公司的产品越受欢迎
355
00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:49,733
用的人越多
356
00:11:49,733 --> 00:11:51,166
公司亏的钱就越多
357
00:11:51,466 --> 00:11:53,566
面对这种越卖越亏的局面
358
00:11:53,566 --> 00:11:56,066
这些AI大厂的剧本是怎么写的呢
359
00:11:56,100 --> 00:11:57,766
很简单画大饼
360
00:11:57,933 --> 00:11:59,533
他们忽悠投资人和整个
361
00:11:59,533 --> 00:12:00,866
市场的逻辑是这样的
362
00:12:00,866 --> 00:12:01,766
大家别慌
363
00:12:01,900 --> 00:12:04,000
现在亏钱是因为算力太贵
364
00:12:04,266 --> 00:12:05,966
只要我们不断砸钱买芯片
365
00:12:06,100 --> 00:12:08,966
未来的算力成本一定会呈指数级下降
366
00:12:09,066 --> 00:12:09,966
到那个时候
367
00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,600
我们的收入就会超过烧钱的速度
368
00:12:12,666 --> 00:12:13,533
实现盈利
369
00:12:13,866 --> 00:12:16,000
毕竟当年互联网泡沫破裂的时候
370
00:12:16,066 --> 00:12:18,166
亚马逊不也是顶着亏损活下来
371
00:12:18,166 --> 00:12:19,766
最后成了万亿帝国吗
372
00:12:19,766 --> 00:12:21,100
这话听起来没毛病
373
00:12:21,100 --> 00:12:22,600
但这套话术掩盖了一个
374
00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:24,533
极其恐怖的宏观经济真相
375
00:12:24,733 --> 00:12:26,000
哈佛大学经济学家
376
00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:28,900
杰森福尔曼算过一笔极其可怕的账
377
00:12:29,166 --> 00:12:30,966
在2025年上半年
378
00:12:31,166 --> 00:12:33,366
整个美国GDP的增长里面
379
00:12:33,366 --> 00:12:37,200
有大约92%是直接由AI相关的
380
00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:39,133
基础设施投资撑起来的
381
00:12:39,300 --> 00:12:41,300
你没听错 92%
382
00:12:41,333 --> 00:12:44,066
如果把AI建数据中心买显卡
383
00:12:44,100 --> 00:12:45,966
拉电网的这些钱全扣掉
384
00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:47,700
美国经济在那个半年的实际
385
00:12:47,700 --> 00:12:50,333
增长率只有可怜的0.1百分之
386
00:12:50,366 --> 00:12:51,366
这说明什么
387
00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:53,666
说明整个超级大国的经济增长
388
00:12:53,666 --> 00:12:56,466
引擎已经严重依赖于一场没有
389
00:12:56,466 --> 00:12:58,566
被证明能赚钱的疯狂采购
390
00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:00,966
我们在用全社会的资源去
391
00:13:00,966 --> 00:13:03,066
为一家连商业模式都没
392
00:13:03,066 --> 00:13:05,100
跑通的初创公司的未来买单
393
00:13:05,266 --> 00:13:07,400
一旦这个巨大的谎言被戳破
394
00:13:07,466 --> 00:13:08,800
下场会是什么样
395
00:13:08,900 --> 00:13:11,366
这绝对不是几只股票跌停那么简单
396
00:13:11,566 --> 00:13:13,900
顶尖的投资咨询公司奥纬咨询
397
00:13:14,100 --> 00:13:16,933
Oliver Wyman做过极其详细的模型推演
398
00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:18,666
如果AI泡沫破裂
399
00:13:18,733 --> 00:13:21,000
市场将面临两种崩盘场景
400
00:13:21,100 --> 00:13:22,600
而且一个比一个惨烈
401
00:13:22,700 --> 00:13:25,533
第一种是相对温和的股市大屠杀
402
00:13:25,666 --> 00:13:27,533
也就是所谓的权益大缩水
403
00:13:27,766 --> 00:13:28,766
逻辑很简单
404
00:13:28,866 --> 00:13:30,566
资本的耐心是有限的
405
00:13:30,566 --> 00:13:32,466
当华尔街意识到AI在
406
00:13:32,466 --> 00:13:34,166
短期内根本变不了现
407
00:13:34,266 --> 00:13:36,200
或者财报上的那些循环
408
00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,266
融资终于转不动的时候
409
00:13:38,333 --> 00:13:40,000
投资者就会开始抛售
410
00:13:40,300 --> 00:13:41,166
前面我们说过
411
00:13:41,166 --> 00:13:43,500
标普500指数过去几年的收益有
412
00:13:43,500 --> 00:13:46,966
大概75%是由AI相关概念股贡献的
413
00:13:46,966 --> 00:13:49,766
只要英伟达微软这几个带头大哥一倒
414
00:13:49,933 --> 00:13:52,066
整个大盘就会被瞬间拖垮
415
00:13:52,333 --> 00:13:54,300
如果重演2,000年互联网
416
00:13:54,300 --> 00:13:55,700
泡沫那种级别的抛售
417
00:13:55,766 --> 00:13:56,766
会发生什么
418
00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:58,666
美国的家庭财富会直接
419
00:13:58,666 --> 00:14:00,400
蒸发超过20万亿美元
420
00:14:00,533 --> 00:14:01,866
海外投资者的账面上
421
00:14:01,866 --> 00:14:03,666
会被抹掉15万亿美元
422
00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:05,333
按现在的估值来算
423
00:14:05,333 --> 00:14:06,866
这场雪崩造成的财富
424
00:14:06,866 --> 00:14:09,466
损失可能超过33万亿美元
425
00:14:09,500 --> 00:14:10,800
这可是比美国一整年
426
00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:12,666
的GDP还要庞大的数字
427
00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:16,866
无数普通人的401K养老账户会遭遇腰斩
428
00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:18,200
你辛辛苦苦干了
429
00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:19,933
半辈子存下来的退休金
430
00:14:19,933 --> 00:14:22,866
就在华尔街的几根大阴线里灰飞烟灭
431
00:14:23,166 --> 00:14:24,666
但这还不是最吓人的
432
00:14:24,666 --> 00:14:27,200
第二种场景才是真正的地狱模式
433
00:14:27,333 --> 00:14:28,933
债务引发的金融海啸
434
00:14:29,100 --> 00:14:29,933
你要知道
435
00:14:29,966 --> 00:14:32,266
当年2000年的互联网泡沫
436
00:14:32,333 --> 00:14:35,066
那帮搞网站的人烧的主要是风投的钱
437
00:14:35,066 --> 00:14:36,333
也就是股权融资
438
00:14:36,733 --> 00:14:37,866
公司破产了
439
00:14:37,866 --> 00:14:38,866
投资人认栽
440
00:14:39,100 --> 00:14:41,100
拍拍屁股走人虽然惨
441
00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:43,166
但不太会传染给银行系统
442
00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:45,466
但这次的AI泡沫完全不一样
443
00:14:45,500 --> 00:14:47,533
它是用天量的债务堆起来的
444
00:14:47,666 --> 00:14:49,066
还记得前面摩根士丹利
445
00:14:49,066 --> 00:14:51,133
提到的那8,000亿私人信贷吗
446
00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:53,800
除了那些叫得出名字的华尔街巨头
447
00:14:53,900 --> 00:14:55,666
还有大量的中小银行
448
00:14:55,666 --> 00:14:58,133
地方银行也跑来趟浑水
449
00:14:58,166 --> 00:15:01,666
他们把AI借给各种初创企业去租算力
450
00:15:01,666 --> 00:15:03,200
或者把这些高风险的科技
451
00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,300
公司当成自己的核心储户
452
00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:06,700
如果泡沫破裂
453
00:15:06,733 --> 00:15:09,066
这些AI公司一旦停止烧钱
454
00:15:09,066 --> 00:15:10,800
付不起昂贵的算力租金
455
00:15:10,900 --> 00:15:12,566
那些借钱给他们买GPU的
456
00:15:12,566 --> 00:15:14,200
金融机构就会瞬间爆雷
457
00:15:14,500 --> 00:15:16,933
由于资产端是高度贬值的二手芯片
458
00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:18,933
这些银行根本收不回成本
459
00:15:19,066 --> 00:15:20,266
坏账一出来
460
00:15:20,333 --> 00:15:22,666
硅谷银行倒闭的剧本就会重演
461
00:15:22,900 --> 00:15:25,066
而且别忘了现在是社交媒体时代
462
00:15:25,300 --> 00:15:26,733
恐慌情绪在网上传播
463
00:15:26,733 --> 00:15:28,400
的速度是以秒计算的
464
00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:30,766
2008年你要排队去银行取钱
465
00:15:30,766 --> 00:15:32,100
现在只要在手机上点
466
00:15:32,100 --> 00:15:34,133
两下就能把存款转移走
467
00:15:34,333 --> 00:15:36,733
过去需要几个月才能形成的银行挤兑
468
00:15:36,866 --> 00:15:38,400
现在只需要几个小时
469
00:15:38,566 --> 00:15:40,133
华尔街著名的大空头
470
00:15:40,266 --> 00:15:42,766
大空头电影的原型人物
471
00:15:42,766 --> 00:15:44,900
迈克尔伯里Michael Burry
472
00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,500
也就是那个在2008年次贷危机
473
00:15:47,500 --> 00:15:50,000
爆发前就做空房地产市场的狠人
474
00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:52,400
他最近就发出了极其严厉的警告
475
00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:53,466
伯里认为
476
00:15:53,500 --> 00:15:55,200
如果AI泡沫开始崩溃
477
00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:57,466
美国政府肯定会像救市一样
478
00:15:57,466 --> 00:15:59,200
出台各种政策来托底
479
00:15:59,266 --> 00:16:00,966
拼命想要救活这个泡沫
480
00:16:01,166 --> 00:16:02,100
但问题是
481
00:16:02,100 --> 00:16:04,000
这次跟2008年不一样
482
00:16:04,066 --> 00:16:06,133
这次金融窟窿被科技巨头们的
483
00:16:06,133 --> 00:16:08,933
循环融资和天量债务吹得太大了
484
00:16:09,066 --> 00:16:11,566
大到连美联储印钞机都填不满的地步
485
00:16:11,666 --> 00:16:13,533
当3万亿甚至几十万亿的
486
00:16:13,533 --> 00:16:15,333
财富神话在几个月内坍塌
487
00:16:15,466 --> 00:16:17,266
那些靠左手倒右手做出来
488
00:16:17,266 --> 00:16:18,966
的营收账本被彻底撕碎
489
00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:20,966
真正流血的永远不是那
490
00:16:20,966 --> 00:16:22,800
几位提前套现的科技大佬
491
00:16:22,866 --> 00:16:24,500
在这些天文数字的背后
492
00:16:24,500 --> 00:16:26,666
是超过250万个美国本土
493
00:16:26,666 --> 00:16:28,533
工作岗位面临直接威胁
494
00:16:28,866 --> 00:16:30,566
钱灰飞烟灭了
495
00:16:30,566 --> 00:16:32,766
但烂摊子谁来收拾
496
00:16:33,133 --> 00:16:35,133
那些为了满足AI贪婪胃口
497
00:16:35,133 --> 00:16:36,866
而拔地而起的巨型基建
498
00:16:36,900 --> 00:16:38,666
才是下一场危机的核心
499
00:16:38,700 --> 00:16:40,000
这就涉及到泡沫破裂
500
00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:41,600
后的实体经济灾难了
501
00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:43,600
那些为了AI疯狂上马的
502
00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:45,900
核电站天然气发电厂和
503
00:16:45,900 --> 00:16:48,400
占地面积比城镇还大的数据中心
504
00:16:48,700 --> 00:16:49,933
不仅不会消失
505
00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:51,866
反而会变成套在普通
506
00:16:51,866 --> 00:16:53,800
老百姓脖子上的沉重枷锁
507
00:16:54,066 --> 00:16:55,466
很多人天真的以为
508
00:16:55,466 --> 00:16:57,733
大模型就是网上的几行代码
509
00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,066
泡沫破了也就是服务器关机
510
00:17:00,166 --> 00:17:01,966
程序员换个项目接着干
511
00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:03,733
但现实根本不是这么回事
512
00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:05,200
虽然科技巨头们在
513
00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:07,366
账面上玩着左手倒右手
514
00:17:07,466 --> 00:17:09,333
互相兜售算力的游戏
515
00:17:09,500 --> 00:17:10,733
但物理世界里的芯片
516
00:17:10,733 --> 00:17:12,200
和电费是做不了假的
517
00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:13,800
你得有真金白银的
518
00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:15,666
硬件和源源不断的电力
519
00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:17,966
才能让这些吞金兽运转起来
520
00:17:17,966 --> 00:17:20,733
为了维持AI永远能进化的神话
521
00:17:20,733 --> 00:17:23,133
这些巨头已经彻底杀红了眼
522
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:25,066
甚至开始跟美国的基础能源
523
00:17:25,066 --> 00:17:26,800
命脉签下几十年的卖身契
524
00:17:27,133 --> 00:17:29,200
来看看巨头们最近都在干什么
525
00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:30,200
疯狂的举动
526
00:17:30,366 --> 00:17:32,333
微软为了给它的数据中心供电
527
00:17:32,366 --> 00:17:34,766
直接签了一份长期的电力购买协议
528
00:17:34,966 --> 00:17:36,166
居然要去重启
529
00:17:36,166 --> 00:17:38,533
宾夕法尼亚州的三里岛核电站
530
00:17:38,900 --> 00:17:40,566
稍微懂点历史的人都知道
531
00:17:40,566 --> 00:17:42,166
这地方当年发生过美国
532
00:17:42,166 --> 00:17:44,100
历史上最严重的核泄漏事故
533
00:17:44,100 --> 00:17:45,600
但现在为了搞AI
534
00:17:45,733 --> 00:17:47,066
微软连这种级别的旧
535
00:17:47,066 --> 00:17:48,766
核电站都要重新点火
536
00:17:49,100 --> 00:17:49,900
不仅是微软
537
00:17:49,933 --> 00:17:51,300
谷歌也签了协议
538
00:17:51,300 --> 00:17:54,766
要重启爱荷华州的Dwaine Arnold核电站
539
00:17:54,933 --> 00:17:56,800
open AI和甲骨文更夸张
540
00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:58,933
他们直接跑到德克萨斯州的阿比林
541
00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:00,333
正在疯狂安装超过
542
00:18:00,333 --> 00:18:02,400
1千兆瓦的天然气发电机组
543
00:18:02,500 --> 00:18:04,000
专门给他们的星际之门
544
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:05,600
超级计算机园区供电
545
00:18:05,700 --> 00:18:07,266
最离谱的是Meta脸书
546
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:08,933
他们在俄亥俄州建的
547
00:18:08,933 --> 00:18:10,500
普罗米修斯数据中心
548
00:18:10,566 --> 00:18:12,366
预计在2026年上线
549
00:18:12,533 --> 00:18:14,900
直接就要吃掉1千兆瓦的电力
550
00:18:15,100 --> 00:18:16,500
而这还只是开胃菜
551
00:18:16,666 --> 00:18:18,733
Meta在路易斯安那州规划的那个
552
00:18:18,733 --> 00:18:20,933
名叫海伯利安的超级数据中心
553
00:18:20,966 --> 00:18:23,333
到了2030年全面运转的时候
554
00:18:23,333 --> 00:18:26,133
电力消耗将达到极其恐怖的5千兆瓦
555
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:27,933
5千兆瓦是什么概念
556
00:18:27,966 --> 00:18:29,866
这足够维持两个新奥尔良市
557
00:18:29,866 --> 00:18:31,700
所有居民和商业的日常用电
558
00:18:31,733 --> 00:18:33,400
一家科技公司的一个机房
559
00:18:33,533 --> 00:18:35,300
耗电量直接顶得上两座
560
00:18:35,300 --> 00:18:36,766
百万人口的美国大城市
561
00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:39,066
为了吸引这些巨无霸来建厂
562
00:18:39,133 --> 00:18:40,266
美国各个地方政府
563
00:18:40,266 --> 00:18:41,766
也是拼了老命的倒贴
564
00:18:42,066 --> 00:18:43,600
目前全美有42个州
565
00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:45,933
你要么对数据中心免征销售税
566
00:18:45,933 --> 00:18:47,933
要么提供大规模的税收减免
567
00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:50,400
光是目前公开数据的16个州
568
00:18:50,466 --> 00:18:51,533
在过去5年里
569
00:18:51,533 --> 00:18:53,000
为了讨好科技巨头
570
00:18:53,100 --> 00:18:55,933
放弃的税收收入就高达60亿美元
571
00:18:56,166 --> 00:18:57,466
这60亿美元本来是
572
00:18:57,466 --> 00:18:58,933
可以用来盖公立学校
573
00:18:59,100 --> 00:19:00,866
修补破烂的高速公路
574
00:19:00,933 --> 00:19:03,566
或者发给消防员和警察当工资的
575
00:19:03,766 --> 00:19:06,733
但现在这笔钱全都被砸进了那
576
00:19:06,733 --> 00:19:08,966
一个个防空洞一样的数据中心里
577
00:19:08,966 --> 00:19:10,733
去为一个虚无缥缈的
578
00:19:10,733 --> 00:19:12,200
不知道哪年才能实现
579
00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:13,933
的通用人工智能买单
580
00:19:13,933 --> 00:19:16,000
在泡沫还没有破裂的今天
581
00:19:16,066 --> 00:19:17,333
普通老百姓其实已经
582
00:19:17,333 --> 00:19:19,266
开始为这场狂欢掏钱了
583
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,400
如果某天AI泡沫炸了
584
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:24,366
数据中心因为付不起电费而关门大吉
585
00:19:24,466 --> 00:19:26,000
你以为事情就结束了吗
586
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:26,900
根本不会
587
00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:28,866
那些被重新点燃的
588
00:19:28,866 --> 00:19:30,566
核电站不会凭空消失
589
00:19:30,733 --> 00:19:32,966
科技巨头跟电力公司签下的
590
00:19:32,966 --> 00:19:35,333
几十年的白纸黑字合同也不会作废
591
00:19:35,700 --> 00:19:36,566
唯一消失的
592
00:19:36,566 --> 00:19:38,466
是当初用来忽悠大家建
593
00:19:38,466 --> 00:19:40,500
这些东西的巨额AI营收
594
00:19:40,500 --> 00:19:41,366
到那个时候
595
00:19:41,466 --> 00:19:42,933
承担风险的私营科技
596
00:19:42,933 --> 00:19:44,800
公司拍拍屁股申请破产
597
00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,400
或者被华尔街和政府出资救助
598
00:19:47,466 --> 00:19:49,733
而留下的天价基建账单
599
00:19:49,766 --> 00:19:52,200
将通过全线暴涨的电费
600
00:19:52,333 --> 00:19:54,800
强行摊派给每一个普通的家庭
601
00:19:55,133 --> 00:19:57,733
当地居民可能要在未来的二三十年里
602
00:19:57,733 --> 00:20:00,600
每个月多交几十甚至上百美元的电费
603
00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,133
就为了替当年Meta或者open AI
604
00:20:03,133 --> 00:20:05,133
签下的霸王电网合同还债
605
00:20:05,300 --> 00:20:06,100
这个时候
606
00:20:06,100 --> 00:20:07,333
肯定有死硬的硅谷
607
00:20:07,333 --> 00:20:08,866
粉丝要跳出来反驳了
608
00:20:08,900 --> 00:20:11,200
当年2,000年互联网泡沫破裂的时候
609
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:12,766
确实死了一大片公司
610
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,666
但也留下了宝贵的遗产啊
611
00:20:14,900 --> 00:20:16,966
当年那些破产的电信公司铺设
612
00:20:16,966 --> 00:20:19,066
了成千上万公里的光纤电缆
613
00:20:19,166 --> 00:20:21,766
正是因为有这些极度便宜的烂尾光纤
614
00:20:21,866 --> 00:20:24,566
后来才长出了Youtube Netflix和
615
00:20:24,566 --> 00:20:26,600
今天无比繁荣的互联网生态
616
00:20:26,933 --> 00:20:28,100
AI泡沫破了
617
00:20:28,100 --> 00:20:28,933
算力降价
618
00:20:28,933 --> 00:20:30,700
不刚好也能造福后人吗
619
00:20:30,700 --> 00:20:32,333
这套说辞可以说是整个
620
00:20:32,333 --> 00:20:34,333
科技圈目前最大的谎言
621
00:20:34,466 --> 00:20:35,466
没有之一
622
00:20:35,666 --> 00:20:38,200
AI的硬件跟互联网时代的光纤在
623
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,133
物理属性上有着致命的区别
624
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:41,766
光纤埋在地底下
625
00:20:41,766 --> 00:20:42,766
只要不挖断
626
00:20:42,766 --> 00:20:44,966
用个二三十年一点问题都没有
627
00:20:45,066 --> 00:20:46,766
它的价值是极其稳定的
628
00:20:46,766 --> 00:20:48,133
但AI芯片呢
629
00:20:48,133 --> 00:20:51,200
你花几万美金买一块英伟达的最强GPU
630
00:20:51,333 --> 00:20:53,533
只要在数据中心里经过1-
631
00:20:53,533 --> 00:20:55,666
3年的高强度满负荷运转
632
00:20:55,733 --> 00:20:58,266
它的物理性能就会出现不可逆的衰减
633
00:20:58,566 --> 00:20:59,566
更要命的是
634
00:20:59,566 --> 00:21:01,933
AI硬件的迭代速度太快了
635
00:21:01,933 --> 00:21:04,300
当下一代架构的芯片一发布
636
00:21:04,366 --> 00:21:06,800
老一代的芯片不仅算力跟不上
637
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,400
能耗比更是被彻底按在地上摩擦
638
00:21:09,566 --> 00:21:11,066
一个装满3年前顶级
639
00:21:11,066 --> 00:21:12,966
英伟达芯片的豪华数据中心
640
00:21:12,966 --> 00:21:15,400
在今天根本运行不了最新的大模型
641
00:21:15,500 --> 00:21:17,366
连降价出租都没人要
642
00:21:17,566 --> 00:21:18,933
因为用它跑程序的
643
00:21:18,933 --> 00:21:21,133
电费比芯片本身还贵
644
00:21:21,133 --> 00:21:22,766
一旦AI泡沫破裂
645
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:25,133
这些造价几十上百亿美元的
646
00:21:25,133 --> 00:21:27,733
数据中心留下的根本不是什么
647
00:21:27,733 --> 00:21:29,800
造福下一代的数字高速公路
648
00:21:29,866 --> 00:21:31,700
而是一堆发热严重
649
00:21:31,733 --> 00:21:33,533
快速老化的电子垃圾
650
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:36,166
他们在经济上的价值会瞬间归零
651
00:21:36,166 --> 00:21:37,933
也就是一堆废铜烂铁
652
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,266
那么这场注定要来的崩盘
653
00:21:40,300 --> 00:21:42,366
到底会以什么样的形式收场
654
00:21:42,533 --> 00:21:44,300
它大概率不会像2008年
655
00:21:44,300 --> 00:21:45,566
雷曼兄弟倒闭那样
656
00:21:45,566 --> 00:21:47,266
一夜之间天塌地陷
657
00:21:47,500 --> 00:21:51,166
而是会像一场漫长痛苦的慢性放血
658
00:21:51,566 --> 00:21:53,500
参照当年互联网泡沫的经验
659
00:21:53,566 --> 00:21:55,166
整个崩盘过程可能会
660
00:21:55,166 --> 00:21:56,733
持续长达两年的时间
661
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:57,966
随着时间的推移
662
00:21:58,200 --> 00:21:59,766
越来越多的风投机构和
663
00:21:59,766 --> 00:22:01,800
华尔街大鳄会突然清醒过来
664
00:22:01,900 --> 00:22:03,933
原来AI在短期内根本拿不
665
00:22:03,933 --> 00:22:05,700
出像样的商业落地模式
666
00:22:05,966 --> 00:22:07,500
一旦金主爸爸们不愿意再
667
00:22:07,500 --> 00:22:09,300
为没有尽头的亏损买单
668
00:22:09,366 --> 00:22:12,066
资金链的断裂就会从最底层开始蔓延
669
00:22:12,366 --> 00:22:14,900
我们现在其实已经能看到这个苗头了
670
00:22:15,133 --> 00:22:17,766
市面上那些做单一功能的AI应用公司
671
00:22:17,766 --> 00:22:19,200
做AI写文章的
672
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,400
做AI排日程表的初创企业
673
00:22:21,466 --> 00:22:24,100
正在成批成批的倒闭为什么
674
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:26,800
因为只要他们证明了某个功能有市场
675
00:22:26,933 --> 00:22:28,600
微软谷歌苹果
676
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:31,066
这些底层大模型提供商就会直接把
677
00:22:31,066 --> 00:22:33,400
这个功能免费集成到自己的系统里
678
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:35,966
一夜之间就把初创公司直接碾死
679
00:22:36,133 --> 00:22:38,300
甚至连目前的行业老大Openai
680
00:22:38,300 --> 00:22:40,800
日子也只存在于PPT的幻想里
681
00:22:40,933 --> 00:22:43,466
他们自己内部的财务预测报告显示
682
00:22:43,533 --> 00:22:46,400
公司要一直巨额亏损到2028年
683
00:22:46,533 --> 00:22:49,766
理论上要在2030年才能勉强实现盈利
684
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:50,866
但请注意
685
00:22:50,933 --> 00:22:53,133
这个盈利的前提极其苛刻
686
00:22:53,366 --> 00:22:55,700
必须要在2030年之前如期
687
00:22:55,700 --> 00:22:57,733
搞出真正像人类一样聪明
688
00:22:57,766 --> 00:22:59,666
甚至超越人类的AGI
689
00:22:59,733 --> 00:23:01,533
这根本不是什么商业计划书
690
00:23:01,766 --> 00:23:04,200
这纯粹就是在赌场里押上身家性命
691
00:23:04,266 --> 00:23:06,900
去赌一个目前全世界连基本科学
692
00:23:06,900 --> 00:23:09,366
原理都还没完全搞清楚的技术奇迹
693
00:23:09,766 --> 00:23:11,733
如果在这个技术奇迹降临之前
694
00:23:11,766 --> 00:23:13,666
账上的钱先烧光了怎么办
695
00:23:13,733 --> 00:23:16,666
最现实的结局就是大鱼吃小鱼
696
00:23:16,666 --> 00:23:17,600
赢家通吃
697
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:19,000
但普通人买单
698
00:23:19,133 --> 00:23:21,466
如果中小AI公司资金断裂
699
00:23:21,566 --> 00:23:23,533
最有底气活下来的其实是
700
00:23:23,533 --> 00:23:26,000
微软谷歌和亚马逊这三家
701
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,733
因为他们最初起家靠的根本不是AI
702
00:23:28,866 --> 00:23:30,166
他们手里有云计算
703
00:23:30,166 --> 00:23:31,266
有搜索引擎
704
00:23:31,300 --> 00:23:33,000
有电商帝国这些每年
705
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:34,600
能稳定印钞的现金流
706
00:23:34,766 --> 00:23:36,166
他们有几百种退路
707
00:23:36,166 --> 00:23:38,266
并且有足够厚的资产负债表
708
00:23:38,266 --> 00:23:40,166
可以在哀鸿遍野的时候
709
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,333
以极低的价格把那些走投无路的AI
710
00:23:43,333 --> 00:23:46,466
明星团队和专利全部低价收购
711
00:23:46,533 --> 00:23:48,300
一场轰轰烈烈的AI革命
712
00:23:48,300 --> 00:23:49,400
最后可能只会变成
713
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:50,900
一个极其无聊的结局
714
00:23:51,066 --> 00:23:52,733
全世界成千上万的AI工具
715
00:23:52,733 --> 00:23:54,366
和初创项目全部死绝
716
00:23:54,766 --> 00:23:57,466
所有的技术和数据最终被完全收编
717
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,366
成为这三家巨头公司内部的一个部门
718
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:01,933
或者一项附属服务
719
00:24:02,300 --> 00:24:04,266
巨头们成功兼并了市场
720
00:24:04,266 --> 00:24:07,100
但在狂欢阶段撒出去的那些成本
721
00:24:07,166 --> 00:24:09,000
绝大部分是收不回来的
722
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:10,366
那些已经签好字
723
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:12,933
建了一半的天价发电厂和输电网
724
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:14,333
巨头是不会管的
725
00:24:14,366 --> 00:24:17,266
账单会死死盯在当地居民的电费条上
726
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,533
那些在高位被忽悠进场的股民
727
00:24:19,700 --> 00:24:22,000
那些看着标普500指数狂飙而
728
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,733
沾沾自喜的401K养老金账户持有者
729
00:24:24,933 --> 00:24:26,566
你们账面上的财富缩水
730
00:24:26,566 --> 00:24:27,933
在华尔街的报告里
731
00:24:27,933 --> 00:24:29,266
只会被轻描淡写的
732
00:24:29,266 --> 00:24:31,466
记录为系统性投资亏损
733
00:24:31,566 --> 00:24:32,966
几万亿美金的窟窿
734
00:24:32,966 --> 00:24:34,166
会被极其精准
735
00:24:34,166 --> 00:24:35,666
无声无息的分摊到
736
00:24:35,666 --> 00:24:37,500
几千万普通美国人的头上
737
00:24:37,733 --> 00:24:39,300
而你们中的绝大部分人
738
00:24:39,333 --> 00:24:40,733
从头到尾连一个真正
739
00:24:40,733 --> 00:24:42,566
有用的AI应用都没用过
740
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,300
更别提参与这场惊天赌局了
741
00:24:45,500 --> 00:24:48,766
AI这项技术绝对会活过这场大崩盘
742
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:50,400
并且在未来的某一天
743
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,066
它会被资金更充裕
744
00:24:52,166 --> 00:24:53,666
活下来的巨头们
745
00:24:53,700 --> 00:24:57,166
以一种更慢更务实更不吹牛逼的方式
746
00:24:57,166 --> 00:24:58,466
重新推向市场
747
00:24:58,466 --> 00:24:59,600
但问题在于
748
00:24:59,733 --> 00:25:01,700
硅谷今天向全人类承诺的
749
00:25:01,700 --> 00:25:03,400
那个科幻般的美好世界
750
00:25:03,700 --> 00:25:05,266
和未来实际落地的那个
751
00:25:05,266 --> 00:25:07,133
充满妥协的现实世界之间
752
00:25:07,266 --> 00:25:08,800
隔着一条巨大的深渊
753
00:25:08,966 --> 00:25:11,600
而填平这条深渊所需的真金白银
754
00:25:12,100 --> 00:25:14,333
最终全都是由这个社会里最
755
00:25:14,333 --> 00:25:16,933
承受不起损失的普通人来买单
756
00:25:17,066 --> 00:25:18,766
所以现在的问题早就
757
00:25:18,766 --> 00:25:20,933
不是AI泡沫会不会破裂了
758
00:25:20,933 --> 00:25:22,000
真正的问题是
759
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:23,266
当宴席散去
760
00:25:23,266 --> 00:25:24,700
一地鸡毛的时候
761
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,266
到底谁会被强行按在桌前
762
00:25:27,333 --> 00:25:29,300
付那张天文数字的账单
763
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:31,966
谁又只能在废墟里去捡拾
764
00:25:31,966 --> 00:25:34,200
那些根本拼不起来的碎片
765
00:25:34,466 --> 00:25:36,800
Openai目前还在疯狂失血
766
00:25:36,866 --> 00:25:39,300
但这台造梦机器停转的原因
767
00:25:39,366 --> 00:25:41,366
可能绝对不是你想的那样
768
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:42,466
今天就到这里了
769
00:25:42,466 --> 00:25:43,766
朋友们别忘记按赞
770
00:25:43,766 --> 00:25:44,900
感谢你们的观看
771
00:25:44,900 --> 00:25:46,166
咱们下期再见
54251
