Original subtitles

My vision for this country...

- Roads, rail. - Right across Australia.

- We are in the age of infrastructure. - The dawn of a new era.

Take this country to the 21st century.

- Bucketloads of bitumen and bricks. - Building a stronger country.

Record spending...

We're spending more than any government has ever spent.

- $44 billion. - $75 billion.

- $100 billion. - It's big money in anyone's language.

- This is a nation-building... - Nation-building.

- Nation-building. - Nation-building.

- Nation-building. - Nation-building.

Nation-building.

2050, 2080, and future asset allocation, and that's just a guide.

So, there you have it.

- Outstanding. - Thanks, Jim.

Now, I have a confession to make. I've misled you just a little bit.

Rhonda, I can see you smiling.

Hardest secret I've ever kept.

This announcement will not be for next year's budget.

The PM has it earmarked for what he's calling

'a Christmas surprise'.

A visionary project. A gift to the nation.

And if the reaction in this room is anything to go on...

- Very positive. - Wow!

Although, Tony, we haven't heard from you.

You're a Grinch. That's what you are.

The Grinch who stole the PM's Christmas.

I am simply trying to point out that schemes like these...

Ebenezer Scrooge. Too mean to let in a little bit of yuletide cheer.

$50 billion, Rhonda. It's not a little bit.

Oh! I've had enough.

Judas!

That's Easter.

Seriously, an infrastructure Future Fund?

I must admit, I loved it the first time I heard it.

- And to be announced at Christmas. - But what is it really?

- It's a future fund. - Yeah...

To fund for the future!

What's the point in taking money that could be spent on infrastructure now

and stashing it away?

For the future.

These things get announced with a blaze of glory,

then you'll move on and we're left trying to make sense of it all.

It's like that Investment Australia fund.

The what?

$3.7 billion. Green and gold Akubras at the launch.

Not ringing a bell.

Yeah, the Prime Minister was on a horse.

- Oh! Whatever happened to that? - I-I'll tell you what happened to that.

But you know who'll be at the centre of this, Tony.

- Jim... - Big expansion, new offices.

- Uh, excuse me, Mr Woodford? - Yes?

You've had a last-minute seat change.

- Really? - The lady over there requested it.

Seriously?

Yeah, no, we'll hop onto that. And the deadline for that is...

I can't quite read this.

- Is yours any better? - I think it's the 3rd.

3rd. I thought we were getting a new printer.

- We got it. - So...

It's amazing. It can sort and collate, staple...

- But not print. - Gary's coming back in.

- Who's Gary? - The printer technician.

He's due in today at...

Is that a 3 or is that a...

Is there anything else?

- A speaker for the PD workshop. - Already?

If you want someone good, you need to lock them in early.

And have we...

Have you heard of Colonel Toby Hartford?

- No. - Ex-SAS, served in Afghanistan.

Sounds great.

He'll talk about his battle with PTSD.

- Not his battle with the enemy? - I can ask.

- What about Bronte Lewis? - Mm-hm.

She climbed Everest at the age of 16.

- Wow. She'll talk about the climb? - No.

Her battles with anxiety and depression.

- Yeah. - Twin battles.

Yeah. Maybe someone a bit more uplifting.

Shall we put together some more options?

Sure. OK. Shall we get back to work?

Oh, Tony, is it true?

- The rumours? - What rumours?

That we might be expanding?

- Nope. - We heard new office.

- No. - Oh. Maybe I heard new printer.

- I don't know what you heard. - Apparently Jim was speaking to...

No, he wasn't. No. Just Canberra scuttlebutt.

- Yep. - Just ignore it.

What did you hear?

New office.

So, you've... had a look?

- It's very impressive, Minister. - Reads well, doesn't it?

- Actually, mine's a little faded. - Not now.

A nationwide $300 billion congestion-busting master plan.

- Boom. - We think it's a game-changer.

- Sure. - Question is, what's our next step?

Well, we could do a cost-benefit analysis of the indivi...

- No. - Or an independent assessment of...

- You don't see it. - She doesn't see it.

How do we launch this?

- It's not for the budget. - We're bringing things early.

I mean, I can stick on a hard hat and a hi-vis vest

and stand out the front of some construction site,

but who's gonna be impressed by that?

We'd be lucky to make one news cycle.

This plan deserves better.

So, what did you have in mind?

I want to be data-driven.

I was at a conference a few months ago in Denmark

and there was this one presenter

who used this amazing computer graphics display.

It was...

- Oh, it was... - Simulation modelling?

- That's it. It was excellent. - Outstanding.

And got picked up on by the local news.

A million-plus views online. Real cut-through.

- So you want traffic modelling? - In a sim.

OK.

We've got the Smarter Cities Forum coming up in a few weeks in Brisbane.

Keynote speaker.

Feels like the perfect opportunity to unveil our master plan.

- Sure. - I see myself on stage with the...

- What did I say before? - Turtleneck?

- No, no, no. The screen thing - Rear-screen projector.

Lights lower. Dramatic music.

I turn. What are we looking at?

The latest mobile phone?

A congestion-busting master plan.

Boom!

Yep. There you go.

- Yeah. - Ah.

Gee, that's weird. I've adjusted the toner levels.

Well, it's happening to everyone. Across the board.

OK, let's see if we can't work out what you're all doing wrong.

Can you open up 'Print Preferences' for me?

- Yes. - Yeah, he's done that.

- Now select 'Choose Driver'. - Uh-huh.

Yep.

Should be saying code number YT4110.

- No. - No, he's not.

- Nothing there, Gary. - You should.

Yeah, well, I'm not. I'm not seeing it.

OK, what have you done?

I haven't done anything, Gary, I don't think.

- Could be a pairing issue. - Good call.

Sounds like a pairing issue.

How about you get closer to the printer?

Well, I'd actually be sitting on it, but, yes.

- Tony? - Yes?

- Jim's here. - OK, in the pod.

- Can I leave you guys to sort it out? - Leave it to us.

- OK. - Bit of work to do, Gary.

Hey, Jim.

- Rhonda's not coming? - Er, yeah. She's not talking to you.

- Still? - Ever, apparently.

Mind you, it's bought you some time

to get your head around what a great scheme this is.

Well, I had a good think about it last night.

Great. I'll let her know.

I'm doubling down. I think it's a really bad idea.

- Have you got a death wish? - No.

This is an Infrastructure Future Fund!

It's just something that sounds good.

- Exactly. - It's like a dream, an aspiration.

- Then where are we disagreeing? - On this.

We were gonna take money from people in order to build infrastructure,

but instead, we're gonna hang on to it for 20 years

in order to build infrastructure.

Again, I don't see where we're disagreeing.

- Why don't we spend it now? - Then you won't have a future fund.

- You've blown it. - Jim...

Tony, we're talking a major expansion here.

Staff, budgets, new board, new building. Sky's the limit.

I thought the NBA was set up to stop this sort of thing.

- What sort of thing? - Unfounded ideas.

Say somebody dreams up, I don't know,

a water pipeline from Darwin to Melbourne.

Surely our job is to ask questions.

- Is that something? - No.

Just asking questions. Could it be something?

No, no. No more questions.

We're supposed to be the gatekeepers. Keep out the crazy.

What's crazy about a future fund?

You are living in the present, Tony. We are thinking about the future.

But thinking about the present fixes the future.

No, it doesn't. When we get to the future, you're still in the past!

What?

Hi. Good to see you.

We started by ingesting the 12 months' worth of data you sent.

That's about two terabytes' worth.

Wow.

What you're looking at now is a typical midweek traffic flow.

Green is good. Orange indicates slower than average. Red is heavy.

Now we can manually input a range of external factors.

Wet weather.

Public holidays.

RDOs for the industrial sector.

- Breakdown on a major arterial. - That's pretty impressive.

So, we've taken your project...

The road upgrade, extra lanes, on- and off-ramp lengthening.

We've factored in all those improvements.

So, starting with current flow during peak...

..then during construction, some problems...

Of course.

- ..and then when it opens. - Oh, that's brilliant!

Amazing.

And with the machine learning, we can keep it going.

Year two... year three... year four...

Wait, wait, what's going on?

- What happened? - Where'd the green go?

- Sandy Alcott. - Yeah? Why does she have purple hair?

- Oh, that's from the printer. - And what does she do?

Sandy ran 52 marathons in 52 weeks on seven different continents.

- Wow! What drove her to do that? - Her marriage breakdown.

Sandy has lived experience with grief and substance abuse...

I reckon we get someone a little bit more motivational.

- She also performs her own songs. - Yeah, yeah. What about sport?

Yes, we can get two of the Oarsome Foursome.

- To talk about? - Teamwork.

- And not all four? - I think there's friction.

Right, yeah.

- What about Eliza Smart, swimmer? - Yeah?

- Synchronised? - Hmm...

- Medallist. - Yeah?

- Bronze. - Hmm. At?

The Commonwealth Games.

- Maybe we keep looking, you know? - Yep.

But thank you. Good suggestions.

Rhonda rang.

She still doesn't want to talk to you

and she said stop sending her emails,

she's not going to read them.

Well, how am I gonna explain my reasons?

She's very angry. She called you 'Krampus'.

Who's Krampus?

Santa Claus's enemy. Half goat, half demon.

Katie, can I run something past you?

- Sure. Is this about the expansion? - No, there is no expansion.

Sure.

- Katie... - I'll keep it under my hat.

Say we came up with something called the Infrastructure Future Fund.

- Oh, wow. That sounds amazing. - Yeah, but I haven't explained it yet.

- But I think I'm gonna like it. - Well, maybe not.

I mean, because I'm gonna take $1,000 in tax off you to build a freeway

but it doesn't get built.

- Is it the greenies again? - No, no.

- No, I save it. - That sounds smart.

Well, it's not smart yet, because the freeway doesn't get built.

- I'm saving money. - That's always good.

Well, not always, because we eventually build a freeway

but in the future.

Oh, I see. Long-term thinking.

- But it's the same freeway. - Yeah. So smart.

Yeah. Yeah.

So, why is Rhonda angry at you?

What happened? Why does the traffic get worse?

Have you heard of the Jevons paradox?

I'm hoping they're a death metal band.

It basically states that the better you make something, like a road,

the more people will use it.

- Isn't that a good thing? - No.

It means you spend a lot of money now for a very short-term benefit.

- So there is some benefit? - Oh, sure.

Average travel times crossing the city

will be cut by two and a half minutes... or a little less.

- Call it two. - Really?

- And that lasts for 14, 15 months. - Then declines?

- Ah, no. Stays flat. - Then declines.

Well, for $300 billion,

I guess we were hoping for something a little more dramatic.

- Two and a half minutes. - Call it two.

You don't look happy.

- The printing is getting worse. - But look. Double-sided.

Yeah, doubly worse.

I rang Gary. He thinks he might have installed the wrong driver.

- Who's Ves Gorman? - Wes.

Courtney thought he might be a good speaker.

- What's that thing around his neck? - It's a snake. He's a survivalist.

"Wes talks about coping with extremes."

That's interesting.

"From dyslexia to childhood bullying and..."

I can't tell if that's "disorder" or "dysmorphia".

I want you to take this down to Officeworks.

Tony, once it's fixed...

And buy me the cheapest, shittiest printer you can find.

- Shall I get Gary to install it? - No, I can put in a plug.

- I'll get you a coffee while I'm out. - That'd be great.

Is it true we might be getting our own coffee shop in the new building?

- Katie. - I know. Just Canberra scuttlebutt.

Alright. Good news.

- Rhonda's calmed down? - No, not that.

- Hey, who's Hans Gruber? - The evil guy from Die Hard.

Oh, the guy who ruins everyone's Christmas.

Yeah.

Anyway, we are getting some serious heat on this future fund thing.

- Talk about positive feedback. - From?

- Everyone. - Such as?

Banks, share traders, investment brokers.

- Jim, they're the same people. - What?

Of course they love it. They've got $50 billion to play with.

- 60. - It's gonna up?

Why put a ceiling on the future?

All we're doing is taking vast amounts of public money

and then parking it in the financial services sector.

Sounds prudent.

We're better off spending the money now.

Ah, no! This is where we're all a little bit ahead of you

with a thing called outperformance.

- Oh, Jim! - Hear me out.

The guys in Finance are huge on this outperformance thing.

So, you take a large tranche of funds.

Good word, that, 'tranche'.

- 'Tranche'. - Jim.

Sorry. Put it in a hedge fund.

- 'Hedge'. Another good word. - Yep.

Then with a compound annual growth rate

and diversified portfolio management,

you have multipliers that deliver above-market returns.

Merry Christmas. Shall I tell Rhonda you've apologised?

No.

Well, shall I tell her that you now support the fund?

Who says you get above-market returns?

They do! The whiz kids!

They've got algorithms and arbitrage thingos and it's all guaranteed.

- Is it? - I think so.

"Past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes."

- Sounds technical. - It's the opposite.

Why don't you have a chat with them?

I've set up a meeting. Then you'll agree.

- Alright, we'll see. - Good man.

- Two and a half minutes? - Hmm, more likely two.

That's not congestion busting.

And even that doesn't last. It's a temporary decongestion.

- I can get that from cough syrup! - It's all in here.

As you can see, it starts off green, then pretty quickly turns red.

- Well, this is all purple. - That's our printer.

- The results simply don't add up. - What's this computer doing?

It runs multiple scenarios.

Can they reboot it? A software update?

There's nothing wrong with the computer.

Turn it off and on again at the wall. Something.

It's a supercomputer, Rhonda.

It predicts outcomes with 99.95% accuracy.

So there is a margin for error?

The fact is you just can't build your way out of congestion.

- Says who? - Some guy called Jevons.

Honestly, who do these people think they are?

Experts.

They actually mentioned we should look into more mass transit options.

I knew AI would turn out to be a bunch of greenies.

Tell them to get back in the real world, where people like roads.

The other option could be a congestion tax.

For God's sake! Do I have to go down there myself?

- We thought you were gonna be there. - I got stuck in traffic.

- But I've got a good mind... - Oh, Nat, can you go to...

Oh, sorry. Hi, Rhonda.

Let me know when he's left.

Yep, OK.

- Hey, Tony. - Hmm?

Heard the whisper?

- See that building over there? - Yep.

They reckon the top five floors might be ours.

Be good to have a view.

- Gentlemen? - Oh, yeah. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you very much.

- Coffees? - Oh, that'd be great.

Tony.

- Tony. - Brendan.

Firstly, can I say, we're very excited by the opportunity.

Needless to say, we see enormous upside.

Out of interest, what is that upside?

Our target rate of return is the 10-year bond rate plus 4.5%.

- Wow! - He said target rate.

It's not the actual... Yeah.

And how will you achieve that rate?

The best way to achieve your investment objectives

of either growth or income

is to have a defined strategy

that allows access to a diversified, proactive portfolio

that's aligned with your stated objectives or risk tolerance.

- Or both. - Exactly.

- Makes pretty good sense. - What?

Um... can I ask you about some of your recent investments?

- Sure. - Have you got the list there?

- Yeah. - 'Cause going through it, I was, um...

- I, uh, can't read that. - Oh, shit.

- Hang on. I've got it on my phone. - No, no, it's OK.

Quite a few of them failed to reach that target rate.

- I'm not sure I'd say failed. - What would you say?

- Underperformed. - Due to?

A cyclical correction.

- Plus headwinds. - Headwinds. Yeah.

So the key is, we can be overweight on illiquid securities and assets

because of the time frame.

Yeah, can I ask you a simple question?

Do you think now is a good time to be launching a fund like this?

We'd be comfortable with a combination of long-term yield plays

plus hedged emerging-market equity components.

- Interesting. - Yeah, but not an answer.

Alright, simpler question. What's your outlook for global markets?

- We see volatility. - And then?

- Headwinds? - Possibly.

So what you're saying is returns could go up...

- Yes. - ..or down?

Yes.

- Or remain flat? - If pushed.

Mmm. Interesting.

- Brian. - Scott.

- Brian. - Tony.

Tony, do you mind if I have a quiet word?

Yeah, yeah. I'll see you up there, Scotty.

I just wanted to let you know,

Christine and I are expecting our third.

- Oh! Congratulations, Brian. - Thank you.

Just thought you should be one of the first to know.

Oh, it's just wonderful news.

Yeah, it's gonna be a bit of a stretch financially,

but, what, with the expansion and all the new opportunity coming,

it's very exciting.

Yeah, what... Great news.

Alright.

I've spoken to some real experts and they suggest the following.

We start by revising a few assumptions.

'Traffic' no longer includes slow vehicles, trucks, buses...

My parents.

Morning peak hour is now 5:30am till 10:30am.

That's the entire morning. You might as well redefine an 'hour'.

An 'hour' is anything between 60 and 119 minutes.

Did they account for driverless vehicles?

- No. - Factor them in. Add another lane.

I thought we were gonna be data-driven.

The data doesn't know what it's doing.

I can barely program my phone,

I'm already running rings around this supercomputer!

- I don't think we can make them... - Just give it another pass.

Straight out of the box. How simple is that?

Well, why would Rhonda call you Macaulay Culkin?

Home Alone? They left him behind at Christmas?

- Oh! She wants to leave you behind! - Yeah. Yeah.

- Perfect! - At last, I can read the thing.

"Gordon has more than 20 years' experience

"in the banking and finance sec..."

Really? For a motivational speaker?

Well, no, that's a list of names from Jim for the future fund board.

Seriously?

He said they're just thought-starters.

Hmm, I notice that Gordon's seven years

on the board of the National Australia Bank

is missing from his CV.

- No, not this printer too? - No, no, it was deliberately...

- How's it going? - Fine. Yeah.

So, you got the list. Some savvy minds there.

You want these people to be in charge of public funds?

- Yeah, do you know them? - Only from the royal commission.

Oh, just thought-starters.

Sorry, Tony, do you mind if we use your printer?

- Yep, no, sure. Go ahead. Yeah. - Oh, thanks.

- Big day yesterday. - Huh?

Had the heavy-hitters from the future fund in.

They think it's a great idea.

- Well, of course they do. - Get this.

We start with $20 billion from the sale of the... you know.

No, I don't know.

Oh. That might not be announced yet.

Anyway, there's $20 billion,

plus $10 billion per year for 10 years compounded.

That's $200 billion, Jim. Jesus!

Yeah! That's what everyone says.

So, how'd you go with the whiz kids?

They've got no idea what they're talking about.

What? You really are the Grinch!

They just gave me a laundry list of investments terms.

- They mention outperformance? - Several times.

- Cyclicals? - Yeah.

They're good, aren't they?

- Sorry. - Yep, go ahead.

So, where are we at?

Well, I still think it's a crazy idea.

Ah. Speaking of which, the Northern Water Pipeline.

I mentioned it to the Minister for Rural Affairs.

He wants a working party.

- Who's crazy now? - Well, it's...

- Last one. - Yep. OK.

OK, now add a fourth lane.

I thought it was only gonna be three.

Just try.

Now, what would it look like at 2:00?

- In the afternoon? - Try morning.

Getting there.

- What year is that? - Uh, year one.

And year two.

And year three...

So, there I was in the middle of the Southern Ocean,

60-foot waves, competing against the greatest sailors in the world,

and all I could think about was Caroline and the hurt I've caused.

Does he actually talk about the yacht race?

Sort of. Mostly cheating on Caroline.

I'm not sure that he's that inspirational for what...

Katie, are you crying?

Oh, I just hope they get back together. Yeah.

So it's a no to the sailor?

Yeah, I just think you've got to be better than that

if you're gonna get up on stage.

Ladies and gentlemen,

the Right Honourable Minister Brad Harper.

Good afternoon.

Oh, sorry, I've done it again, haven't I?

- I think this is your mark here. - Yeah, it's a little dark.

Minister, you don't need to hold the microphone.

Oh, quite right, Rhonda. Sorry, I keep forgetting.

It's hot in here, yeah?

Let's go again.

Ladies and gentlemen...

- Ta. - No worries.

- Yeah? - Bad news.

- That speaker? Not available. - The life coach?

He said it's a really busy time of year

and he'd have to take two connecting flights.

- What was he gonna talk about? - Resilience, overcoming obstacles.

Right. OK.

- Tony, can I ask you a question? - Oh, sure.

Sorry, can you finish that later? I just, um... Thanks, guys.

Is now a really good time to take out a loan?

I'm thinking of getting an apartment, what with the...

Yeah, maybe not right now.

Scott said something about headwinds and volatility.

- Did he? - Yeah. Which is worse?

- Uh... can I get back to you on that? - Sure.

Yeah. OK. How'd you go?

I took the figures the Finance guys sent us.

They've assumed the target rate of inflation plus 5.5%.

- I thought it was 4.5%. - Revised assumption.

How do you just change your assumptions?

Anyway, it's pretty impressive. Some serious yields there.

But you can't just assume outperformance.

- Can't you? - No...

Can you show me the actual future fund performance?

Very impressive.

What if you just invested in an off-the-shelf index fund

the whole way along?

- I can do that. - Can you?

Well, S&P 500. Biggest, lowest-cost index fund in the world.

- That can't be right. - Pretty similar.

I've done something wrong.

- Maybe I hedged. - No.

Katie, can you give Rhonda a call?

She's still not speaking to you.

Tell her I've got an idea for a future fund.

Road congestion is currently costing this country

$16 billion a year.

But we have a plan for the people of insert city here...

Brisbane... Minister.

My mistake.

But we have a plan for the people of Brisbane

to spend less time on the roads and more time with loved ones.

But will it work? Don't just take my word for it.

Take the word of the most powerful supercomputer

in the world!

Looking good, Minister.

Thanks, Rhonda. It feels good...

Hang on. What now?

I reckon start.

OK. You really want a future fund?

- Hallelujah! - Apology accepted.

I'll let the PM know.

But there needs to be a few modifications.

For a start, we don't need a new building.

Where are we gonna house everyone?

There is no everyone. We're gonna run it out of this office.

- You'll be on top of each other. - Where will you put the coffee shop?

You've rung the Office of Prime Minister and Cabinet.

So that we may direct your call...

Point two, we don't need a heap of new people.

- How many? - Three to set it up.

- Moving forward? - One.

That's moving backwards. How's that expansion?

A future fund could be run with one person and a laptop.

Possibly part-time.

Were you mistreated as a child?

The PM wants a proper fund.

I'm trying to get him value for money.

- Yeah, by taking away his toys. - We can invest the funds ourselves.

Pick an appropriate portfolio of ETFs.

Save hundreds of millions of dollars in costs and fees.

What about outperformance? Tranches? The board?

I've got a self-managed super fund and I don't have a board.

- Do you want one? - That's my final word, final offer.

Rhonda?

Ask him to leave.

It's my office.

I reckon...

This is ridiculous.

- There's been a few challenges... - Well, there always will be, Nat.

That's why we've got to be bold.

Not wanting to speak out of school,

but I was saying to Cabinet the other day,

big data is here, you can't fight it.

These boxes contain 1,000 terabytes each.

This is great. Write that down.

They use supercomputer modelling from Stanford.

We've come a long way from politicians in hard hats.

- How do you spell 'terabyte'? - With a Y.

But the actual results have been a little mixed.

I wish I was on stage now.

You see, over the three- or four-year...

You know what? Natalie, enough talk. Let the algorithms speak.

Lights, action...

..showtime.

OK.

Based on data, future projections are clear.

Once the project is complete,

traffic flow is impacted immediately.

Then, after one year...

..then two years...

..three years...

By year four, travel times have returned to original state,

while traffic flows continue to decrease to levels that...

..after another volcanic eruption

sent plumes of ash into the air.

And big plans for Brisbane roads.

People say you can't build your way out of congestion.

Well, we say you're wrong.

Merry Christmas!

Santa!

Folks, if I can just, um...

If I could just... Sorry, Scotty?

Scotty, the music.

No, not up! Down! Down!

Off. Down. Off. Yeah, that'd be good.

Sorry, guys, everyone.

Sorry to talk shop, but I just got off a conference call with Canberra.

As you know, one of our roles is to stop the crazy.

- Oh, is this the Darwin pipeline? - I heard that's going ahead.

No, no, no, this is about next year, the rumours you've all been hearing.

What I can tell you is that the Infrastructure Future Fund...

..will not be going ahead.

Anyway, merry Christmas.

- Music? - I think so. Yeah.

- Synced & Corrected by Dragoniod - www.addic7ed.com

- How are they? - They're not great.

Because we need a motivational speaker.

Well, so, there I am, right? I've won the Gold Logie.

OK? World at my feet.

But inside...

..nothing.

Just... nothing.

You know, just an overwhelming sense of, "What's the point?"