Original subtitles

Oh.

Thank you so much for joining us. We are back, and it has been a busy week. Eric

Swalwell's political career justifiably imploded. A jury found that Live Nation

runs a monopoly, which is no surprise to anyone who's ever had to deal with

them. And Hungary's Viktor Orban was kicked out of office with one particular

moment in the aftermath catching everyone's attention.

The shackles are off, and they're dancing to a different tune.

This viral video of Hungary's expected new health minister encapsulating the

party mood.

I love it.

Celebrating an autocrat's downfall by dancing like your drunkest uncle during

the last 20 minutes of a wedding is incredible.

And while I am happy for Hungary, I'm also a bit jealous because they're

this guy as their health minister while we are stuck with this beefy creep who

just this week we learned once cut the penis off a roadkill's waku.

As a purely vibes -based matchup, we have lost heavily.

Meanwhile, our tentative ceasefire with Iran seems to be holding so far, though

as of taping, the Strait of Hormuz remains in chaos, with dueling blockades

the US and Iran causing widespread confusion.

Even the Pope has now seemed to criticise the war, saying, quote,

disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, never stands on the side of those who

yesterday wielded a sword and today drop bombs.

It was one of a series of statements that made Trump lose his shit.

First, he posted this screed, which began with, Pope Leo is weak on crime,

which, in terms of insults, just doesn't work.

It's like saying this possum is weak on Balkan geography.

Okay, but who gives a shit?

It's not a possum's job to correctly place Bosnia and Herzegovina on a map.

job is to eat garbage, hang upside down, and by this evidence, fuck.

But Trump wasn't done, because he then posted this image, which understandably

generated fierce backlash, and his excuse was pretty weak.

Tonight, President Trump is defending his social media post of this AI

-generated image that depicts him as Jesus Christ.

I did post it, and I thought it was me as the doctor, and it had to do with Red

Cross. There's a Red Cross worker there, which we support.

Oh, that makes sense. A doctor. You know how when you go to the doctor and you

get checked in by a nurse and a few bald eagles, and then the doctor comes in

and he's wearing an ancient tunic and says, we're going to get you started on

antibiotics and on orbs of light born from my very skin. Take them with food.

You know, the doctor.

Meanwhile, caught in the middle of all this was J .D. Vance, who actually has a

new book coming out that's literally about his decision to convert to

Catholicism, with fun fact, a stock photo of a Methodist church on the

Now, when pressed on the Pope's remarks, Vance took a bold swing.

When the Pope says that God is never on the side of those who wield the sword,

there is a thousand year, more than a thousand year tradition of just war

theory. Okay? Now, we can, of course, have disagreements about whether this or

that conflict is just, but I think that it's important, in the same way that

it's important for the Vice President of the United States to be careful when I

talk about matters of public policy, I think it's very, very important for the

Pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology.

Yeah, that is J .D. Barnes, douche -splaining theology to the Pope.

Which is objectively crazy. It'd be like me explaining to J .D. Vance where the

clit is on a Togo sectional. Why would I even try to do that? He spent his life

devoted to this very subject. I'm out of my lane there.

Also, be careful.

The Pope's got a lifetime gig. He doesn't need to be cautious about what

says. He could start tweeting, where's the album at Rihanna every day for the

rest of his life? And that still wouldn't change the fact he's considered

vicar of Christ.

Literally the only thing he should probably be careful about is not meeting

J .D. Vance because historically that has been fatal for Popes.

But incredibly, the president still wasn't done. He reposted this AI image

Jesus hugging him, which had the caption, I was never a very religious

doesn't it seem with all these satanic, demonic, child -sacrificing monsters

being exposed, that God might be playing his trump card? Which, for someone who

was repeatedly photographed with society's buzziest child -sacrificing

is a bold thing to repost. And on Thursday, he couldn't resist taking one

swing. Before leaving for Las Vegas, the president was asked about his feud with

the Pope over the war.

I'm not fighting with it. The Pope made a statement. He says Iran can have a

nuclear weapon. I say Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.

Pope Leo has never said Iran should have a nuclear weapon. Pressed on whether he

would be willing to meet with the Pope, Trump said, I don't think it's

necessary.

I don't really think it's necessary either. This battle of words has not

well for Trump.

Plus, I don't think they'd see eye to eye on much, other than maybe whether

a good idea to cover your workplace in more gold ships that seems physically

possible. The point is, Trump seems to be on an epic run of picking losing

fights, and whatever air of invincibility he had last year is fading

of which is a pretty good reminder that one day, he is going to be gone. And on

that day, it will be time to...

As I believe the phrase now goes, dance like a Hungarian health minister.

And now, this.

And now, local Pittsburgh newscasters try to pronounce their ballpark's new

snack. The team unveiled a slew of new food options available at PNC Park. Some

of the new food items include the Boracula dog.

The Boracula dog brings a bit of Puerto Rican flavor.

A Borquia dog. This is a Puerto Rican -inspired hot dog.

Then there's the Borquia dog.

The Borcula dog.

The Boriqua dog.

Boriqua dog?

They include a Boriqua dog. This is the Puerto Rican -inspired hot dog here with

a Pittsburgh twist.

Moving on.

Our main story tonight concerns prediction markets, the fast -growing

where you can bet on basically anything, as this TikToker explains.

I've been making a ton of money on this app that lets you bet on anything in the

world. I bet that GTA 6 won't be released on time. I bet that Trump will

Young Thug this year. I'm predicting Delta Airlines will be the first airline

sell Xen on its flight.

I made money off Trump being elected president and because Kamala Harris

go on Joe Rogan's podcast. When I was in New York, I bet that it would rain and

it did, so I won money. I bet that Justin Bieber will go to the Diddy

When I was in Chicago, I bet on the temperature and won.

Okay, shut up. Shout out to that guy, Caden Booth, for having such a diverse

of interests. The first half of his bets are strictly Gen Z boy, Grand Theft

Auto, Young Thug, Zinn, Rogan, but the back half is 100 % suburban mom.

Potential rain, the temperature, grisly celebrity trials.

Cade, you contain multitudes.

Prediction markets are basically platforms where you can wager on the

future events. The companies decide on the questions to list, and right now,

can wager on anything from will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal

by the end of April, to will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027.

These markets have seen exponential growth in recent months, slogging

of dollars in bets every week. You may have heard about them on the news, or

seen ads, or stumbled across influencers like this guy, who is...

constantly updating his followers on how his various wages about the Trump

administration are going. And I'll warn you, it's a real rollercoaster.

China question, please!

High -end video chips to China, but the Wall Street Journal reported yes. Oh, my

hero! The president has made his position on this very clear, both to the

Chinese, that's not something we're interested in selling to China.

Yes!

Yes!

Dr. Hussein Obama.

Yes! Yes!

Yeah. A lot more screaming than you thought there, huh?

And it's kind of amazing to witness someone absolutely furious that Trump's

was redacted from the Epstein files for a completely different reason than the

rest of us.

The point is, a lot of people are getting into prediction markets, thanks

part to an aggressive marketing push by the two big players in this space,

Cauchy and Polymarket.

Cauchy recently locked in a $22 billion valuation from investors, doubling its

valuation from just a few months earlier, and Polymarket currently trying

the same. Meanwhile, dozens of new entrants like Coinbase, Robinhood and

Truth Social are also trying to get in on the action. It is shocking the extent

to which prediction markets have proliferated and sometimes...

It's been a little unnerving given the things that you can now bet on.

Ali Khamenei out as supreme leader of Iran.

Will Nancy Guthrie's kidnapper be arrested by the end of February?

Those are just two events offered on popular prediction markets in the U .S.

over the last couple of weeks where people could have put their money down

betting on the outcome.

There's a lot of bad stuff going on in the world and being able to bet on just

like horrible things like that.

When somebody's going to be found, like, that's not... That's really dark to me.

Yeah, he's right.

The impulse to try and make money betting on war or an unfolding tragedy

really dark. When someone dies, you're supposed to send their family a card

says, sorry for your loss, and not one that says, thanks for covering the

spread.

That's just one of many issues associated with these sites. And given

tonight, let's take a look at prediction markets and try to answer a few

questions that you might have. Where exactly did these sites come from? What

purpose, if any, do they serve? And how on earth is any of this legal?

And let's start with the fact that the broad concept of prediction markets on

news events is nothing new.

In the late 80s, economists at the University of Iowa created the Iowa

Electronic Markets as an experiment, allowing students and faculty to buy and

sell predictions about upcoming elections. And interestingly, they began

outperform many leading polls.

The theory was that the wisdom of crowds in the form of people putting actual

money behind their opinions can produce useful forecasts.

And controversial uses...

of these markets are not new either. After 9 -11, the Pentagon actually

with creating a market where experts could wager on future events, hoping it

could help predict events in the Middle East.

But it quickly got shut down once members of Congress found out about it

voiced their disgust.

This betting parlor on the Internet will include wagers, for example, as the

examples on the Internet site put up by the Department of Defense would include,

will Mr. Arafat be assassinated?

Will there be missile attacks from North Korea?

Will the King of Jordan be overthrown, just as an example?

I think this is unbelievably stupid.

It's not only, it is, well, that is a gentle thing to say about a program that

is so devoid of value.

It combines the worst of all of our instincts, in my judgment.

Yeah, he was justifiably upset.

at the notion of people betting on geopolitical events that would affect

millions of lives. As we all know, the only groups the society has decided are

allowed to profit from instability are military contractors, members of the

Trump family, and the Mormon wives.

Whitney joined the cast of Chicago on Broadway, and Taylor gets announced as

Bachelorette, and then notably unannounced. I don't know how these

but I cannot stop watching.

The point is, back then... the concept of betting on grim outcomes seems beyond

the pale. But everything started changing a few years ago when Cauchy and

Polymarket launched as start -ups, opening the door to the free -for -all

we have now.

Initially, Cauchy sought regulatory approval.

And in 2020, it was approved as the first regulated exchange. But Polymarket

went a different way, launching without approval and seeming to be comfortable

working outside the rules. The government actually accused Polymarket

operating an unlicensed exchange.

And as part of a 2022 settlement, it agreed to pay 1 .4 million and block

Americans from trading on the platform while admitting no wrongdoing. And it is

worth watching Polymarket CEO Shane Copland try to spin that penalty.

It was a $1 .4 million fine. It was a settlement.

And you could not have customers in the United States.

Yeah, we had to go and geoblock trading in the U .S. and move certain operations

offshore. And it wasn't, hey, you're banned from trading in the U .S. It's

until you're licensed.

I mean, it was breaking the law.

I mean, people say breaking the law. It's like, which law? So if anything,

incompatible. It's incompatible with the law.

Yeah, with the regulatory matrix that existed.

Incompatible with the law is clearly ridiculous, but please don't overlook

line, people say breaking the law, and it's like, which law, you know?

I'm sorry, what?

I'm pretty confident there is a specific law you broke, given, you know, you

paid a $1 .4 million penalty.

Regulators weren't just like, shit, he just asked which law. Oh, uh, the

Exclusion Act of 1882?

From the start.

Polymarket took an extremely libertarian approach, allowing users to use crypto

to bet anonymously on things like war.

And while it's currently rolling out a new app to US users that does have

government approval, it is...

way more limited, and mostly offers trading on sports. The vast majority of

business is still done on Polymarket's international version, which is based

offshore in Panama, and on which American users have to mask their

they want to trade. And while doing that might be a high technological bar to

clear for someone like me, Using a VPN is something anyone under 25 learns to

before they learn how to write a cursive capital G. Mostly because that is an

impossible letter invented by someone who wanted to make children suffer.

It looks like someone stabbing himself in the stomach with a pencil because

that's exactly what trying to write that letter makes you want to fucking do.

But regardless of how these companies got to this point, both enjoyed a huge

surge of attention about a year and a half ago after this happened.

Kelchi made a name for itself in the 2024 election.

Just over one week away from election day, and the race is neck and neck. It

looked close, unless you were keeping an eye on Kelchi, which called the race

well before the TV network did.

It was like Kelchi, then Fox, then CNN.

How did that feel?

It was crazy.

Yeah, Fauci predicted Trump would win, as did Polymarket, whose CEO then

tweeted, make no mistake, Polymarket single -handedly called the election

anything else. The global truth machine is here, powered by the people. And

while it is not the most important thing, you have now met the CEOs of

companies, and I'm just going to say it, they are two of the most extras in a

Patino's pizza rolls commercial -looking motherfuckers I have ever seen in my

life. Anyway, since then... They've both been scrambling for market dominance,

which is why Kelsey, for instance, has run TV ads like this.

Indiana gonna win, baby!

We're in Florida asking people what they put their money on! I'm all in on OKC!

Indiana got that dog in them!

Will egg prices go up this month? I think we'll hit $20. How many hurricanes

you think we'll have this year?

Chelsea lets you legally trade on anything, anywhere in the U .S. OKC!

OKC! Chelsea!

OK.

Visual cacophony is an AI slop atrocity. It contains two alligators, four

shirtless or nearly shirtless old guys, one egg freak, three different people

being pursued by the police, one woman I'm kind of rooting for, one USDA

inspector's fucking nightmare, and one alien seemingly rooting for Duke, which

honestly tracks.

And the whole thing ends with the world's gone mad, trade it, although

everything that came before, a more honest tagline might have been, fuck

empathy, get money, cow shit.

And again, that is the one.

that likes to present itself as the more buttoned -down, rule -abiding company

of the two. And at this point, you might be thinking, wait, isn't that an ad for

a gambling site?

But both Cauchy and Polymarket will fiercely argue that that's not what they

at all. They argue that gambling involves playing against the house.

while their users are trading against each other, with the companies typically

just charging a fee on trades.

They'll also insist that they're simply modern versions of commodity futures

markets, which have been around for over a century. If you're not familiar with

them, they're a place where people can speculate about the future price of

things like corn or natural gas. And crucially, they will argue that the bets

they sell are financial instruments that enable ordinary people to hedge against

future risks, like...

betting that, say, a hurricane will hit or that the U .S. government will shut

down. Here is how Kalshi's CEO frames it.

We had a market about whether student loans are going to be forgiven or not

year. And so a lot of people were hedging using that market.

And so if it wasn't forgiven, they would get paid some amount of money that they

could use to basically pay the student loan.

And that's why this is very important.

Right. Apparently, they're just trying to help people make wise planning

decisions. It's the kind of responsible financial thinking that you intuitively

associate with a company that advertises itself with a shirtless old man being

arrested or an alien pledging Sigma Chi.

And look, that might make some sense when you're talking about an economic

indicator or a specific event that might impact you personally. But what exactly

is the financial loss that I'm hedging against if I bet on the next winner of

the Masked Singer or on whether or not Mr Beast will say Feastable?

And when you watch...

Some of Koushi's actual customers in action, the notion that this is about

risk management feels absurd.

If I didn't win this election, and if you had a moron like Kamala, or a moron

like Sleepy Joe... Yeah!

Here we go.

Bang!

There we go. Bang! Number one, Sleepy Joe.

Easy,

bro. Okay, all right, all right, all right. We made about 200 bucks. Okay,

right. Men playing in women's sports.

Wait, wait, wait.

Transgender. Hey!

Hey!

We are off to a great start. Yay, we hit on that shit immediately.

Sleepy Joe and transgender. We got Sleepy Joe and transgender in like the

five minutes, bro.

Bro, we're up like 500 pounds.

We gotta make 1 ,000.

Yeah, we gotta make 1 ,000.

All right, all right, all right.

I have no idea. I couldn't even tell you what the fuck this man is saying. He

just says a soup of random words.

Yeah, that is not using a financial instrument to hedge risk.

It's taking advantage of a sundowning geriatrics rapidly declining verbal

ability. Oh, you bet he's going to say the word nasty. Great guess, dude. It's

one of the last 200 words he has left.

Honestly, that clip is unsettling on multiple fronts. One, because the

president's harmful rhetoric is being divorced from its actual meaning. But

because... That's not what these bros are supposed to be doing.

They shouldn't be betting on Trump speeches. They should be sitting on that

couch and watching YouTube highlight reels of Kevin Love outlet passes, six

Modellos in, forging a deep, beautiful friendship that will last for 40 years

and that they will never, ever discuss.

Nature has lost its course. The point is, that sure looks like gambling. And

is pretty telling that while political mentions market like that...

get a lot of attention.

Around 90 % of trading volume on Cauchy is on sports.

But you can see why these companies are so insistent that they are not gambling

sites. Just 39 states, D .C. and Puerto Rico, have some form of legalized sports

betting, with only 32 of those allowing online gambling, leaving some pretty

attractive megastates like California and Texas on the table. And by

they are financial exchanges offering not bets, but event contracts.

Prediction markets are not only able to operate in states where gambling isn't

legal, but also get around state taxes and minimum age requirements in states

where it is.

And they sometimes talk out of both sides of their mouth on this, because in

like this one, Couchy's called itself the first nationwide legal sports

platform. But...

When asked about it, it later tried to qualify that statement saying, the bet

language is only used in the sense that any financial position can be considered

a bet on the future. And that is so dumb, it is almost charming.

It's like seeing a sign outside a strip club that says, girls, girls, girls.

And then seeing the manager come out and say, we meant girls, girls, girls who

code. We support women in STEM.

Sure you do, buddy.

Nice try.

But these companies insisted.

that they are not gambling platforms is actually one of the two most irritating

claims that they tend to make. The other is that they're actually incredibly

important to society because they can help us more accurately predict the

future. The head of Polymark has even called it the most accurate thing we

as mankind right now and has bragged that the predictions it generates can

lives. When I get hit up by people in the Middle East who are saying...

that, hey, we're looking at Polymark to decide whether we sleep near the bomb

shelter. We look at it every day, and I'm like, oh, it's really that popular?

Are you kidding me? Do you not even know what's going on?

Everyone's relying on this.

That's very powerful.

That's like an undeniable value proposition that did not exist before.

Hey, quick question. What exact stage of capitalism are we in when the child CEO

of an offshore gambling platform refers to betting odds on bombings as an

undeniable value proposition?

Because it feels like we're in palliative care at this point. But I

is the point you reach when you're a 27 -year -old billionaire surrounded by yes

-men who will never tell you the truth, something I know for sure, because no

-one in his life told him never to ever wear that jacket.

Which, when he is sitting like that, unmistakably says,

So for all the talk of these sites unparalleled accuracy, you should know

a bit of an oversell. They have shown promise in some areas. A recent paper

found Cauchy's predictions were roughly consistent with those of professional

forecasters when it came to the economy and Federal Reserve policy, but they've

also had some big misses.

For instance, both favour the Chiefs to win last year's Super Bowl, and also

with the recent Texas Republican Senate primary, with Polymarket even posting a

breaking alert that morning, announcing Ken Paxton was projected to win, with

their odds giving him an 83 % chance, and you know, he didn't do that.

And look, all of that would be fine. These are just odds, and real life can

odds. Were it not for the fact... that these companies are actively selling

themselves as basically oracles.

And they've even tried to bolster that reputation by entering paid partnership

deals with news organisations.

Dow Jones, parent company of the Wall Street Journal, announced a partnership

with Polymarket earlier this year, while CNN, CNBC and Fox News all signed deals

with Couchy, which even sponsors segments on CNN that feature Couchy's

various future events strolling across the bottom of the screen.

And I do not want the CNN ticker to have betting odds on news events.

I don't really want anything on there except maybe the odd, distractingly

headline that takes my mind off things for a second. You know, something like,

giraffe escapes from zoo, please say it has a gun. You know, something fun to

Google later.

But having their logo like that on CNN is a big win for Kalshi.

Just as it's a big win for them to have influencers like that guy from earlier

saying how easy it is to win money. Though you should know, after we asked,

Kelsey told us that they paid him for that post.

And it feels like deals like those should really be more transparent. It

me a little annoyed, and to be honest, even more hungry. And you know, when I

need something nutritious, yet in a can, I know where to turn.

Bush's baked beans.

But full disclosure, I was paid $40 to say that.

See, it's worth knowing that in reality, as with sportsbooks, researchers have

found that most users of Cauchy and Polymarket lose money.

As we've discussed before, casual gamblers are always going to be easy

more sophisticated operators with advanced systems to give them an edge,

is probably why.

While Polymarket has more than 2 million users, one analysis found more than two

-thirds of all money won on it was held by just 740 accounts.

And if you're thinking, How exactly are these companies getting away with all

this? Well, a lot has to do with who is in the White House right now.

Both companies have fostered strong connections with the Trump family. In

Don Jr.

is both an investor in and an unpaid advisor to Polymarket and a paid advisor

Calci. And look, I am not saying that Don Jr.

isn't providing important or valuable insights. Although, in a much truer

I very much am saying that. I'm just saying...

It's notable just how hard it was for Kaushik's CEO to answer a series of

questions about Don Jr.'s role.

Why did you guys make Donald Trump Jr.

a strategic advisor?

We have a lot of advisors.

And they span across the board, across different functions.

But really, this is all about growing this industry, the prediction market

industry, that a lot of people really believe in. What kind of advice does he

give you?

So it really is, again, about growing prediction markets.

You know, he believes in prediction markets. We believe in prediction

A lot of people believe in prediction markets. And it's really about go -to

-market and expansion plans.

Does he come to meetings? How much do you pay him? What's his role? I mean,

is the son of the president.

I mean, we have a lot of advisors. And whether it's our investors, whether it's

people that we really trust and respect.

He's not just any advisor.

He has a direct line to the White House.

We have a lot of advisors.

Turns out it's pretty hard to justify hiring a nepo baby or, in Don Jr.'s

a nepo divorced dad.

But the thing is, if hiring Don Jr.

helped get these companies on Trump's good side, it's a bet that's paid off

massively for them. Because while the Biden administration had at least tried

rein in some of what these markets were doing, the Trump administration has gone

hard in the other direction.

And to understand the degree to which that's the case, take a look at the

or Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

It regulates these platforms.

It was actually empowered under the Dodd -Frank Act in 2010 to block event

contracts about terrorism, assassination, war, and gaming. You

what you've seen so far tonight.

But it is clearly not doing that, and it doesn't even seem to be trying.

In fact, while the CFTC is supposed to be comprised of five commissioners...

two of whom are required to belong to the minority party. It currently only

this guy, Michael Selig, a Trump appointee who's a massive cheerleader

industry. He completely buys into their whole this is all about hedging risk

argument to the point that he once suggested that somebody with a medical

condition could manage the potential risk of having a future treatment or

medical costs by placing a bet on the likelihood of something passing a drug

trial, which is, and I don't say this lightly, one of the most fucked up...

suggestions I have ever heard for this country's Guernica -ass healthcare

system. And while Selig's recently made noises about stronger enforcement, it is

hard to take him at his word, given that during his confirmation hearings, he

told Congress he'd let courts decide whether these companies constitute

gambling. But in office, he's done the exact opposite of that. In fact, more

than a dozen states are currently suing prediction markets, but rather than let

that play out in the courts, like he promised, Selig posted this video.

To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space, let me be

We will see you in court.

What a fucking weasel. That guy has both the energy and fashion sense of a suits

villain who goes toe -to -toe with Harvey and Mike all season long while

and Meghan Markle, I don't care what you say, that's their character name to me,

watch on.

But he's done more than just threaten. He's led his agency to sue three states

to get them to back off trying to regulate prediction markets. So right

these companies are able to operate under extremely friendly conditions. And

given that, it's worth looking at some of the problems that have already begun

to emerge. Starting with the fact that for a lot of these bets, it is

easy for individuals to manipulate the outcomes.

Some have even joked about that. For instance, on a recent earnings call, the

CEO of Coinbase said this.

I was a little distracted because I was tracking the prediction market about

what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call.

And I just want to, you know, add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain,

staking, and Web3 to make sure we get those in before the end of the call.

Yeah, he saw people's bets online and just rattled off words that they bet on

him saying. And it really feels like manipulating betting outcomes should be

more difficult than that.

In the old days, you at least had to sneak cocaine to a racehorse, not just

rattle off a list of the most punchable words in the English language.

We even realised while researching this piece that there was bettering happening

around this show.

Specifically on what words I'd say during our show on February 22nd, which

stupid for multiple reasons, including that we tape on Saturday in front of a

studio audience, all of whom would then have a massive information advantage and

more than 24 hours before the betting window closed. Now, thankfully, we wipe

every audience member's memory before...

We let them out of the taping. We try to erase only the last couple of hours,

but sometimes we do wipe clean and milestone birthday.

That's on us, and we're constantly calibrating the technology.

You've been warned. You won't remember, but you've been warned.

And there are markets where it is way too easy for anyone to manipulate

outcomes. Just last summer, you might remember a bunch of assholes started

throwing dildos on the court during WNBA games to promote a crypto mean coin.

And if that wasn't already a cursed enough sentence, I'll let this South

man fill you in on what happened next.

Did you know you can actually bet on whether a dildo will be thrown at the

game on August 9th?

August 11th, that's today, and August 12th, right here on Polly Market.

I had no idea. Actually, I had no idea what the WNBA was either until, you

you could place a bet on whether a dildo would be thrown at it. Yeah, none of

that is great. And it is pretty depressing that the way he learned about

existence of the WNBA.

was finding out you could bet on whether a dildo would be thrown at one of its

games. It'd be like finding out about the existence of Robert De Niro by

googling the cast of Dirty Grandpa.

Oh, no.

No, not like this.

Don't learn about him like this.

But it is true.

People started betting whether dildos would be thrown again, and Polymarket

put up this tweet promoting the bets. And sure enough, more dildos got thrown.

And that could well have been because Polymarket had just created a situation

where you could easily make money by betting someone would throw a dildo and

then going to a game with a dildo and throwing it.

There have also been multiple instances of people seeming to use inside

information to game these markets. Last year, a trader made over a million

dollars with a series of accurate bets about Google's rankings of its most

searched people of 2025.

That same person, by the way?

had also earned over $150 ,000 by correctly predicting the exact release

Google's Gemini 3 model, which really makes you think that person either

for Google or knew someone who did.

or maybe managed to hack Google from the outside, in which case, would it kill

you to do a Google doodle for my birthday? It is on Thursday, by the way.

And Polymarket's CEO has in the past openly celebrated the fact that this

of thing can happen on his platform, because he's argued it just makes its

prediction abilities that much stronger.

What do you guys do, if anything, to basically guard against insider trading?

Yeah, so...

It goes back to this idea of information markets, right? Like, you think about

when will Gemini 3 launch?

Nobody is under the impression that nobody knows the answer, right? Like, of

course there's people who are working on it who know when it's going to come.

And I think what's cool about Polymarket is that...

It creates this financial incentive for people to go and divulge the information

to the market, and the market to change, and all of a sudden it's trading at 95

cents, and people are like, oh.

When you say divulge, you mean the people who actually know? Yeah, or

tells someone, and then the market responds.

Yeah, he basically just answered the question, how do you guard against

trading there, with no.

And he did it with a fashion choice somehow even worse than his biker

because what in the NYU army fatigues is that shit?

That sweater looks like it was made from illegally poached grimace. But also, I

don't care how many statement sweaters you wear, or how many Ben Platt and Dear

Evan Hansen haircuts you have, you're not describing some edgy, chill way to

divulge information to the market, you're describing insider trading.

And it gets genuinely chilling when you realise that people seem to be using

insider info to bet on life or death events.

In January.

After the US seized Nicolas Maduro, an anonymous trader pocketed more than $400

,000 of bets that that would happen, with the bulk of those bets made mere

before the raid was announced. In February, two Israelis were charged with

classified military information to place bets on polymarkets, and in March, this

happened. Deadly American strikes, and some people may have made money from

them. More than a dozen anonymous accounts placed bets predicting that the

United States would strike Iran by Saturday the 28th of February.

Most of those wages were placed in the hours before the first bombs fell.

And many of the accounts had been created only days earlier.

One of the biggest winners used the account name MagaMyMan.

The trader placed $87 ,000 on a wall with Iran exactly 71 minutes before the

first strike, winning a jackpot worth $515 ,000.

Yeah, that sure feels like someone with inside information was betting on

Polymarket. And I'd say that it wasn't a great idea to make their username

MagaMyMan, except it doesn't seem to matter anymore, does it? His username

as well have been MagaMyMan, just kidding, my name is Dylan Barthwell and

at the Department of Defence.

He's not really risking much.

Now, I should say, Cousy just announced it took action in two insider trading

cases and has taken out billboards bragging that it bans insider trading

also that it doesn't offer death markets, which is a little weird.

It'd be like McDonald's putting up ads that its nuggets don't contain baby

OK, Mama, but now I have way more questions.

For its part, Polymarket recently updated its rules to clarify that users

act on stolen confidential information, wager using illegal tips, or bet if

they're in a position to influence the outcome of an event. Although, it is not

a great sign that just recently there was a suspicious spike in trading right

before the ceasefire with Iran was announced, as a group of new accounts on

Polymarket made highly specific, well -timed bets about it, earning hundreds

thousands of dollars.

So it sure seems like right now we've effectively got gambling sites operating

even in states where gambling is illegal and offering bets on things that there

have been laws against for over a decade now. So what can we do? Well, at the

bare minimum, the CFTC should be doing more. And while it says it's writing new

rules, I wouldn't expect much, especially for as long as this fucking

charge.

As I said earlier, there are a bunch of cases making their way through the

courts right now, but it's not clear how they'll resolve, and it's probably

going to be in front of the Supreme Court.

Meanwhile, Congress is considering a number of proposals tackling aspects of

this issue, although given that the President of the United States has a kid

currently advising both major companies, I wouldn't hold your breath.

So meaningful policy shifts in the near term do seem unlikely, but at some

point... We do need to put in place some basic guardrails here. And until then,

if we can't change how these sites operate, we should at least try and

how we individually see them.

One thing that would frankly help is if news organisations stopped laundering

these companies' reputations for them by putting their odds on screen like they

are actual news. Because is it a bad idea for them to be doing that? If I may

quote the single loudest man in the world...

Yes, exactly.

I couldn't have screamed it better myself.

And look, on a personal level, if you're considering using these markets to

gamble, try and remember that you are statistically likely to lose money.

And while I am not against gambling per se, there is something so grim about

these sites turning every aspect of our lives into a bet. Because sure, money

can be won on them.

But in that happening, something also gets lost.

Specifically a society where things aren't only weighed in financial terms

where people engage with news for what it means to human beings, not just

because they have $50 riding on it. And when something unexpected happens in the

world, it would be really nice not to have to automatically question whether

it's only because someone is trying to move a market.

That is why I'm going to make you a promise tonight. I will never do

because someone online placed a bet on it. So you can be confident.

That if I ever say, Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking and Web3, it won't

because I'm trying to move markets, it'll be because I'm having a stroke.

And once you have that trust, you can feel secure in the knowledge that if a

dildo ever lands on this desk, it's not because someone had a secret wager on

it, it's because we weren't sure how to get out of a 32 -minute segment on a

quasi -legal gambling industry, but we knew.

that a thrown dildo in the right circumstances and with the full consent

person having it thrown at them would be undeniably funny.

And if more than one dildo lands, it's only because a fundamental rule of

is more dildos is more funny.

And if it turns out there are too many dildos flying through the air, I promise

it will only be because we didn't know how many to buy and now we're going to

screw because I don't think you're allowed to return them.

That is our show. Thank you so much for watching. See you next week. Good night.

This is just too many dildos.