Original subtitles

Okay. Well, let's talk about how Israel

is doing. Um, we don't get much news

coming out of Israel. Same with Iran.

Really, we don't. And Israel, there's

also a lot of block on, you know, a

block on what can be filmed or shown or

talked about, it seems, um, for matters

of national security. And I understand

actually, you know, I understand the

point of don't show where the enemy's

been able to strike. I mean, that just

seems to make sense when you're in war.

Um, so I'm not going to fault them for

for not putting the information out

there. Just like with Iran, too, you

know, I'm not going to fault anybody

just like the United States military. I

mean, I think that they're not being

honest with who's you with the aircraft

being struck. You know, they're saying,

"Oh, it's just an you like a mishap in

the it was nothing like like Iran's not

firing at us like basically." But I, you

know, I get it. I understand the logic

behind that. Um, but we, you know, many

of us inquiring minds still would like

to know what the heck's actually going

on. Um, you know, I do have some Israeli

friends or friends that have Israeli

family and they seem I mean up until at

least a couple of weeks ago, I don't

know if things have changed, but they've

seemed to say that everything's normal

and that nothing's really any things

have not we're not like the few things

we're getting in social media, for

example, of the bombardment and the

orange sky. They're saying that they're

not seeing that, but that maybe has

changed. Um, what is life like right now

for Israelis?

A lot has changed over the last two

weeks.

>> Okay.

>> Um and yeah, so basically, you know, to

just preface this with the short answer,

life is somewhere in between. All the

people are saying everything is normal

and the whole country is collapsing.

>> Okay?

>> It's it's definitely somewhere in

between, but it's nowhere near normal.

And I'll tell you why. Um so at first

there was massive support for the war.

There still is wide support for the war,

but a lot of that was because people

felt like there was going to be regime

change. Israelis genuinely believed

there was going to be regime change.

That very quick they were very dis

quickly dissuaded about that and that

changed a lot of their enthusiasm for

it. A lot of people started feeling well

this is kind of pointless if there's not

going to be a regime change. Um Iranian

managed to do two things that are very

significant. One and probably the most

significant it's not talked about a lot.

Uh they've closed the Israeli airport.

uh Bengurian airport is basically

closed. Israel keeps it open so that it

doesn't give Iran the um ideological

victory, but they only allow out like

one flight a day and it's for people who

are close to some rabbi to go pray in

some grave. It's it's like regular

Israelis can't fly out of Israel and

none of the major airlines are flying

into Israel. Wow. and the there's only

one airport of any significance

and it basically doesn't function and

that's the lifeline of the Israeli

economy and of Israeli society and a a

lot of people want to leave and they

can't leave. So that that's probably the

most important thing to note. The other

thing is that no one is getting a good

night's sleep. Um what Iran is doing

right now is it's focusing on it can't

really destroy every building or kill

that many people. is trying to disrupt

people's uh ability to go to school and

to sleep. So, school is canceled and

you're woken up several times a night uh

by alarms. Some nights it's just one or

two. Some nights at six or seven and you

you can't get a good night's sleep and a

lot of my so most mildmannered nice

friends are having complete breakdowns

and fighting with each other in my

WhatsApp chat.

>> Yeah, I was going to say like

everybody's now on edge. Everybody's

like like just in a really bad mood. Uh

yeah. Okay, that's good.

>> That's right. So, so um civil society is

is showing some signs of um of cracking.

Then there's a lot of problems um with

the defense system that are not being

fully published. They're not not getting

the exposure they should. There was an

article or two in Harets about this, but

um Iran's been targeting the systems and

the radar behind the systems and that's

led to very often there not being enough

warning time. Uh, in addition, there was

at least one person arrested for giving

information uh from the Iron Dome

directly to Iran. And from what I hear,

there's at least four or five other

suspects in this scandal. So, they're

getting a lot of insider information on

that. Then there's the question of the

North. The North is a different issue.

Hezbollah has been firing at the cities

and villages in the north. There's no

warning time whatsoever there. The

cities there have barely recovered from

the pummeling they took from Hezbollah

in the last round. So some of these

cities are dying. Um Kirachimona, for

example, is a city that had 25,000

people before the war. Now it has 10,000

people in it. And the mayor said today

that if it keeps being pummeled the way

it's being pummeled now, there'll be

only 100 people left, the people who

can't physically leave.

>> He said that he doesn't feel like he's

just fighting Hezbollah, he's also

fighting the government that's not

supporting them. An article came out in

the marker today saying that Israel is

not properly defending the poorer cities

in Israel, especially poorer cities that

have misrai uh residents. This is all

causing fissures in Israeli society and

that's one of the reasons you're not

hearing so much. Um Israel's not doing

well in defending the uh their society

from these attacks. people are

incredibly unhappy and the fact that

there's no results of any tangible kind

being achieved on the battlefield are

only making this worse. Uh so that's the

situation in Israel and of course been

uh you know several 4,000 something

people injured and uh almost 20 people

killed. Some people question whether the

number is actually higher but it's not

going to be that much higher because

everyone in Israel knows each other but

uh those are also significant numbers.

Well, uh, we've been told, uh, and, uh,

you know, by Donald Trump and Pete Hegth

that Iran no longer has a military. So,

I don't know, Sha, how are they getting

these rockets over to Israel? How are

they getting these missiles over to

Israel to terrorize the Israeli people

if there's if their military's been

completely obliterated? Um, clearly that

seems like that's not true and their

military is not obliterated. And if

that's the case, how do Israelis feel

about Donald Trump and Hegsth going out

there saying, "Oh, no. There's no

threat. Iran is obliterated while

they're not able to get sleep at night

because they're constantly living under

uh rocket attacks."

>> Well, Israelis are so busy um hating

their own government and laughing at

their own military right now that they

don't care what HGs and Trump say. Um

they're they're main they're following

Trump and Hexet very closely because

they're afraid it depends who you know

but the people who want the war to go on

are afraid that the United States is

going to force Israel into a ceasefire

too soon. So that if you see the

coverage of Trump and he said in Israel

that's how they cover it. They're going

to pressure Israel into a ceasefire too

soon because the Israeli media is very

much you know pro war just like it is in

the United States more so honestly. Um,

so, so there's that. As far as the

Iranian military, the Iranian military

is doing fine. And, uh, I I I don't see

enough people saying that, but that is

the truth. It's not that they haven't

taken a lot of hits. They have. They've

taken lots of hits. But, um, first of

all, in the first couple weeks, Israel

and the United States were going after

military uh, sorry, uh, government and

civil installations more than military

ones and nuclear ones as well. So, the

military wasn't hit that hard.

Second of all, the Iranian military is

massive, and I don't think people quite

understand how big it is. We're talking

about a million and a half uh people in

in in arms that they have.

>> Uh and they've been planning for this

war for a very long time. They are aware

that the Americans main ability to harm

them is by taking out communications

um between the different parts of the

country. So what they've done is they've

broken down the military into local uh

groups that will operate independently

of one another. So even if you destroy

uh you have 30 something regions in

Iran, even if you destroy 28, four of

them will continue to operate

independently.

>> These are lessons that they learned from

previous bombings by Israel of Iran, but

also by what Israel has done in Lebanon

and how Hezbollah has adapted to that.

and Hezbollah has done the same thing.

They've decentralized their command and

no matter how much Israel hits them, it

doesn't seem to harm them that much.

Basically, if you decentralize and you

take out a commander, you're only

harming that region and only temporarily

until they bring in a new commander.

Communications, they've decided to lower

the importance of that. Centralization,

they decided to lower the importance of

that and go for go for regionalization.

And that's why if the United States go

in to Straits of Hormuz, they're going

to find that those areas function very

nicely despite the fact that they've

pummeled Tehran so hard uh because

they're designed to function without any

communication from from the center and

regard what's really been uh uh

incredible that the intelligence

predicted, at least Israeli intelligence

did, but what's they haven't predicted

is the ability of the Iranians to put

their missiles underground to improvise

launchers and to uh operate very very

quickly before they can be targeted by

the air force. One of their advantages,

no one's talking about this either, is

the United States and Israel are

operating from very far away. So by the

time they're aware of where a missile's

been launched, very often they can go

back and and hide it. And a lot of these

systems are very low tech. So if they're

hit, they're not that hard to fix. And

you don't need to be some kind of

incredibly trained genius to operate

them. You need a minor amount of

training. And the missiles are coming in

and Israel just admitted this today from

Russia through the Caspian Sea on a very

very regularly.

So everything you're hearing about the

Iranian military being degraded and all

that, it's meaningless. and and

Americans should have learned this

lesson from what happened in the Vietnam

War when every night in the news they

would tell you how many Vietkong they

killed and how they're teetering on the

brink of of destruction. Then the Ted

offensive happened. What you're seeing

is very similar. A the intelligence

isn't that great. B they're exaggerating

for political reasons and the reality on

the ground in Iran from what I

understand is that the military is doing

just fine. The only way to destroy the

Ukrainian military would be to go in

there with a massive force and fight

them. And you know, then it really

depends on whether Iran would fight back

or whether they would collapse. I don't

know the answer to that, but no one

does. And the United States is not going

to find out,

>> right?

>> Not going to go there and do it.

>> Are the Israelis being told the same

thing we're being told? I mean, are they

hearing, "Oh, the Iranian military is

degraded and they don't have a mil, it's

been obliterated as they're getting, you

know, missiles fired at them." I mean,

are they being told that same thing or

is that not is that not being broadcast

across Israeli news? they're being told

the exact same thing. But in Israel,

it's it's a complete joke. Like they'll

say, you know, oh, look look at the 1%

of the Iranian military is really uh is

really firing at us today. You know, uh,

right?

>> Or they'll say, yes, of course, they

destroyed 90% of the missiles in Iran.

But, you know, when a when a male

missile and a female missile love each

other very much, they make little

missiles and now they're shooting those

at us. You know, it's a it's a joke

because the

>> It's obviously not true.

>> It's obviously not true. you you know

it's one thing when you hear it on the

news and it's another thing when you

hear it on the news and then you're

being shot out all day long

>> right

>> uh but also they're they're very

skeptical because of Hezbollah um a few

months ago Israelis were told that

Hezbollah was completely defeated that

Hezbollah had no rockets left, no

missiles left, everyone was dead that

they couldn't function. And now they're

being told that Hezbollah is such a

threat that Israel has to send in five

divisions into Lebanon and take over

half the country and never leave.

And uh that is uh quite quite the

difference. And it shows you that these

people cannot be trusted whether because

their information is wrong or because

they're cheating you. There's no there's

disagreement on that. And of course

there's also the legacy of October 7th.

On October 7th, Israeli intelligence and

the military failed so badly in

defending the people that the military

spent two years building up their

reputation again successfully uh through

their operations in Gaza and in Iran and

in Lebanon. And now people are

remembering, wait a minute, what

happened in October 7th, it was these

same people and now they're lying to us

again. And so everything that they

gained in that regard is being reversed

as we speak. So everything you're

hearing in the US, they're saying in

Israel, even more so, but it's having

zero effect. No one believes them.

>> So what's the Israeli attitude now? I

mean, what is their what are what are

most I mean, I know this is anecdotal,

but what do you think most Israelis are

wanting to accomplish with this war?

>> Yeah. So since the the goal was regime

change and Israelis thought that that

was the goal and as long as that was

seen as obtainable, there was almost

100% support for it. Now support is

slipping, although not as much as as you

would hope or I would hope. Um but the

ambitions are very very minor uh

relatively. So basically, if you talk to

Israelis in the army who are doing the

targeting, what they're saying is

they're saying, "We have this list of

targets

and um a lot of it's picked by AI, by

the way, and we want to finish that list

of targets." The very Israeli way of

looking at war. Let's max out every

single uh one. And they're also worried

right now about running out of uh

interceptors, especially the Arrow

interceptors. Those are almost gone. So,

they want to finish the targets before

they finish the interceptors, and that's

really about it. Uh, their dreams of

regime change are long gone, but even

their second dream of turning Iran into

a failed state, that doesn't seem

obtainable either, because they only

have a few more days to keep striking.

So, they don't want a peace deal yet,

but they don't want a peace deal to be

too far away either because then they

could be left exposed to be shot at, and

they won't even have good targets for AI

to keep selecting. So the truth is the

ambitions are very low. What what is the

average Israeli is hoping right now is

that Israel hits Iran hard enough that

they'll leave Israel alone for a long

time and maybe hopefully the Iranian

people will rise up later and take out

the regime. But there's very little

optimism of of any of that happening.

>> But that seems to be what Iran wants

too. I mean if both sides are thinking

we're just going to hit you hard enough

until you never want to hit us again. Uh

that seems to be Iran's goal.

So then what?

>> Iran has has uh most likely things could

still change won this war. And and and

your comment now just pinpointed exactly

why. If we reach a point where everyone

just leaves each other alone, that is

exactly what Iran's goal. Iran has a

very modest goal because it's very weak,

>> but it's an attainable goal, and that's

to uh hurt the enemy so much that

they're left alone to try to rebuild

their state capacity. And if if Israel

reaches the point where that's all they

want, which seems uh pretty close, then

that means Iran has won the war. And if

the United States, all they want is for

the price of oil to go down, then they

have won the war. And that's why Iran,

amazingly, has es has the um escalation

uh dominance in this case and seems to

be on the verge of winning. The United

States is considering doing an invasion,

a partial invasion to try to change that

equation. It likely won't, but they have

to change the equation because exactly

that Iran is in the driver's seat,

>> right? Iran is in the driver's seat at

this point.

>> Oh, yeah.

>> And they're even saying, "We're not

negotiating, you know, we're not

interested in in ending anything until

you suffer enough that you just stay

away from us." I think, you know, to for

a good point, I mean, Iran doesn't want

to have their brass mowed every so

often. And if if they quit now, then

they know that, okay, this will just

turn into another rather than the 12-day

war, this is just the four-week war, and

then there's going to be another war

here in just another 6 months or a year

or two. And they can't live like that. I

mean, who can?

>> Yeah, that's right. Their survival as a

regime is at stake, and they would much

rather uh be seriously hurt right now

than be hurt again later. They've

managed to obtain again you know

surprisingly successfully uh stability

domestically. They don't feel from what

I understand threatened at all from a

regime change now. They feel threatened

from regime change in the future once

the war ends.

>> So they're willing to to suffer anything

uh anything right now. And they figure

that if they can really deter

intervention in the future, they might

actually have a chance at long-term

survival. three weeks, three weeks

before the war when they had that

uprising, they probably had a worse

prognosis for their survival than they

have now. Uh so yes, this it's very

important for them to have build up that

deterrence. That's an essential plank in

their in their plan to survive as a

regime. And right now looks like it's

going to work.

>> Yeah. I mean, if they could just get to

the point where every Israeli says, you

know what, not worth it. We don't ever

want to pick a fight with Iran again. we

want to. That's just, you know, we're

gonna have to figure out something else.

I mean, I don't know. But how how close

do you think Israelis are from act

actually feeling that way?

>> They don't feel that way at all. Uh

they're not even close to feeling that

way. What Israelis feel right now is

that what they can achieve in Iran today

isn't worth the price that they're

paying. But if you told Israelis, um,

you can destroy Iran and feel, you know,

five times as much pain as you're

feeling now, the average Israeli will

take that deal and feel five times as

much pain is I I'm just throwing a

number out there. Significantly more

pain than than they're feeling now. um

because they are trained to believe that

the existence of this regime is a

existential threat to the country that

has to be dealt with now rather than

later. They also feel and this is

important that the United States will

not support them in the future for

reasons that we all understand that are

probably correct and that this is a once

in a-lifetime opportunity to do it. So

if they felt like they could do it, they

would they would be willing to pay very

very high prices. You know, a lot of

anti-Israel people think that Israeli

society is weak and the soldiers are

weak. They don't understand Israeli

society very well. Uh the reason there's

cracks now is because there's there's a

feeling there's not not much that can be

achieved. But if a lot could be

achieved, they would be willing to pay a

very high price. Uh Israelis completely

support Zionism, completely support

Israel. They might not love Netanyahu

all that much, but they support the idea

of 100%.

>> And they believe that Iran is a genuine

existential threat,

>> and that's why they're willing to pay

that price in order to get rid of them.

They just right now don't think that's

attainable.

>> Right. But that's why Iran's not going

to stop because they they probably know

that the Israelis have that mentality

and they need to and it's in their best

interest to somehow figure out a way to

eradicate that mentality with more pain.

>> They can't eradic eradicate that

mentality anytime soon just like Israel

can't eradicate the Iranian regime.

That's off the table. What the Iranians

are doing is very in very smart. They're

they're locating the soft underbelly of

this coalition, which is the American

political will, which is basically

non-existent, right? Look at the support

numbers for Trump. Like Iranians are

looking at that and salivating. It's

it's their wildest dreams for him to be

this unpopular right now.

>> Um, and the other thing is the Gulf

States. The Gulf States are so profit

driven. They're also each one has their

own interests. They don't really hold

together in in a meaningful sense. So

they want to divide that coalition as

well. So that's why they're focusing on

those two things. They can change the

American calculus to the point of we

never want to hear the word Iran again.

Uh and that's what they're focusing on.

The Americans, they they think that they

it's much easier to handle Israel on its

own. Uh especially in the future,

they're dreaming of a future where the

United States doesn't support Israel and

give them the military means that they

need to continue doing this. But taking

the United States off the table already

increases their odds of survival and

looks like they'll achieve that. They

can't change the Israeli calculus.

That's too too embedded. Uh but they can

change the American calculus.

>> Yeah. And that's certainly working for

sure.

>> Yes, definitely.

>> Thanks for watching this clip from the

full Kim Iverson show, which you can

catch Monday through Friday, 2:00 p.m.

Pacific, 5:00 p. p.m. Eastern for free

at kimversonshow.com.

See you there.