Original subtitles

we're on the brink of is a world of

increasingly intense sophisticated

artificial intelligence technology is

evolving so much faster than our society

has the ability to protect us as

citizens

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you have a networked intelligence that

watches us knows everything about us and

begins to try to change us technology is

never good or bad it's what we do with

the technology eventually millions of

people are going to be thrown out of

jobs because their skills are going to

be obsolete

unemployment regardless of whether to be

afraid or not afraid the change is

coming and nobody can stop it

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we've invested huge amounts of money and

so it stands to reason that the military

with their own desires are gonna start

to use these technologies autonomous

weapons systems would lead to a global

arms race to rival the nuclear era

we know what the answer is they'll

eventually be killing us

these technology leaps are going to

yield incredible miracles and incredible

Horrors

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we created it so I think as we move

forward this intelligence will contain

parts of us but I think the question is

will it contain the good parts or the

bad parts

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the survivors called the war Judgment

Day

they they have told me to face a new

nightmare

against the machines I think we

completely us up I think

Hollywood has managed to inoculate the

general public against this question the

idea of machines that will take over the

world open the pod bay doors

oh I'm sorry Dave I'm afraid I can't do

that al we've cried wolf enough times

out the public has stopped paying

attention because it feels like science

fiction even sitting here talking about

it right now it feels a little bit silly

a little bit like oh this is an artifact

of some cheeseball movie the whopper

spends all its time thinking about World

War three but it's not the general

public is about to get blindsided by

this

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as as decidin as individuals we're

increasingly surrounded by a machine

intelligence we carry this pocket device

in the palm of our hand that we use to

make a striking array of life decisions

right now aided by a set of distant

algorithms we have no understanding

they're already pretty jaded about the

idea that we can talk to our phone and

that mostly understands us five years

ago no way

robotics machines that see and speak and

listen all that's real now and these

technologies are going to fundamentally

change our society now we have this

great movement of the self-driving cars

driving a car autonomously can move

people's lives into a better place I've

lost a number of family members

including my mother my mother and

sister-in-law and their kids - I don't

feel accidents it's pretty clear we can

almost eliminate car accidents with

automation 30,000 lives in the US alone

about a million around the world per

year

in healthcare early indicators are the

name of the game in that space so that's

another place where it can save

somebody's life here in the breast

cancer Center all the things that the

radiologist brain does in two minutes

computer bonus instantaneously a

computer has looked at 1 million

mammograms and it takes that data and

applies it to this image instantaneously

so the medical application is profound

another really exciting area that we're

seeing a lot of development and is

actually understanding our genetic code

and using that to both diagnose disease

and create personalized treatments

the primary application of all these

machines will be to extend our own

intelligence we were able to make

ourselves smarter and it will be better

in solving problems we don't have to age

we'll actually understand aging we'll be

able to stop it there's really no limit

to what intelligent machines can do for

the human race

how could a smarter machine not be a

better machine it's hard to say exactly

when I began to think that that was a

bit naive

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Stuart Russell he's basically a God in

the field of artificial intelligence he

wrote the book that almost every

University uses I used to say it's the

best-selling AI textbook now I just say

it's the PDF that stolen most often

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artificial intelligence is about making

computer smart and from the point of

view of the public what counts as AI is

just something that's surprisingly

intelligent compared to what we thought

computers would typically be able to do

AI is a field of research to try to

basically simulate all kinds of human

capabilities we're in an AI era Silicon

Valley has the ability to focus on one

bright shiny thing it was social

networking in social media over the last

decade and it's pretty clear the bit has

flipped and it starts with machine

learning when we look back at this

moment what was the first AI it's not

sexy and it isn't the thing we consider

the movies but you'd make a great case

that Google created a search engine but

a God had a way for people to ask any

question they wanted and get the answer

they need it most people are not aware

that what Google is doing is actually a

form of artificial intelligence they

just go there they type in a thing

Google give them the answer with each

search we train it to be better

sometimes we type in the search and it

tells us the answer what you finished

asking the question you know who is the

president of Kazakhstan and it'll just

tell you you don't have to go to the

Kazakhstan national website to find out

didn't used to be able to do that that

is artificial intelligence gears from

now when we try to understand we will

say well how do we miss it it's one of

these striking contradictions that we're

facing Google and Facebook at all have

built businesses on giving us as a

society free stuff but it's a Faustian

bargain they're extracting something

from us in exchange but we don't know

what code is running on the other side

and why we have no idea it does strike

right at the issue of how much we should

trust these machines

I use computers literally for everything

there are so many computer advancements

now and it's become such a big part of

our lives it's just incredible what a

computer can do you can actually carry a

computer in your purse I mean how

awesome is that I think most technology

is meant to make things easier and

simpler for for all of us so hopefully I

just remains the focus I think everybody

loves their computers

people don't realize they are constantly

being negotiated with by machines where

that's the price of products in your

Amazon cart whether you can get on a

particular flight whether you can

reserve a room at a particular hotel

what you're experiencing are machine

learning algorithms that have determined

that a person like you is willing to pay

two cents more and is changing the price

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now computer looks at millions of people

simultaneously for very subtle patterns

you can take seemingly innocent digital

footprints such as someone's playlist on

Spotify or stuff that they bought on

Amazon and then use algorithms to

translate this into a very detailed and

very accurate intimate profile there is

the dossier on each of us that is so

extensive it would be possibly accurate

to say that they know more about you

than your mother does major cause of the

recently I breakthrough it isn't just

that some dude at a brilliant insight

doll of a son but simply that we have

much bigger data to train them on and

vastly better computers the magic is in

the data it's a ton of data

I mean it's data that's never existed

before we've never had this data before

we've created technologies that allow us

to capture vast amounts of information

if you think of a billion cell phones on

the planet with gyroscopes and

accelerometers and fingerprint readers

couple that with the GPS and the photos

they take and the tweets that you send

we're all giving off huge amounts of

data individually cars that drive is the

cameras on them suck of information

about the world around them the

satellites that are now in orbit the

size of a toaster the infrared about the

vegetation on the planet the boys that

are out in the oceans defeating into

climate models

and the NSA the CIA as they collect

information about the geopolitical

situations the world today is literally

swimming in this data

back in 2012 IBM estimated that an

average human being

leaves 500 megabytes of digital

footprints every day if you wanted to

back up only one day worth of data that

humanity produces and you print it out

on a letter size paper double-sided font

size 12 and you stack it up it would

reach from the surface of the earth to

the Sun four times over this everyday

the data itself is not good or evil it's

how it's used we're relying really on

the goodwill of these people and on the

policies of these companies there is no

legal requirement for how they can and

should use that kind of data that to me

is at the heart of the trust issue right

now there's a giant race for creating

machines that are as smart as humans

Google they're working on what's really

the kind of Manhattan project of

artificial intelligence they've got the

most money they've got the most talent

they're buying up AI companies and

robotics companies people still think of

Gulas a search engine and their email

provider and a lot of other things that

we use on a daily basis but behind that

search box are 10 million servers that

makes Google the most powerful computing

platform in the world Google is now

working on an AI computing platform that

will have a hundred million servers

so when you're interacting with Google

we're just seeing the toenail of

something that is a giant beast in the

making and the truth is I'm not even

sure that Google knows what it's

becoming

if you look inside of what algorithms

are being used at Google it's technology

largely from the 80s so these are models

that you train by showing them a 1 a 2

and a 3 and it learns not what a 1 is or

what it - is it learns what the

difference between a 1 and a 2 is it's

just a computation in the last half

decade where we've made this rapid

progress it has all been in pattern

recognition most of the good old

fashioned AI was when we would tell our

computers how to play a game like chess

from the old paradigm where you just

tell the computer exactly what to do

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the idea challenge no one at time had

thought that a machine could have the

precision and the confidence and the

speed to play jeopardy well enough

against the best units let's play

jeopardy four-letter word for the iron

fitting on the hoof of a horse

Watson what is issue you are right you

get to pick literary character APB for

800 answered the Daily Double

Watson actually got its knowledge by

reading Wikipedia and 200 million pages

of natural language documents you can't

program every line of how the world

works

mushiya has to learn by reading now we

come to Watson who is Bram Stoker and

the wager hello

4:13 and a Tuesday Watson's trained on

huge amounts of text but it's not like

it understands what it's saying it

doesn't know that water makes things wet

by touching water and by seeing the way

things behave in the world the way you

and I do a lot of language a itay is not

building logical models of how the world

works rather it's looking at how the

words appear in the context of other

words David Ferrucci developed ibm's

watson and somebody asked him just

watson to think and he said does a

submarine swim and what he meant was

when they developed submarines they

borrowed basic principles of swimming

from fish but a submarine swims farther

and faster than fishing in the area huge

payload and out swims fish Watson

winning the game of Jeopardy will go

down in the history of AI as the

significant milestone we tend to be

amazed when the Machine does so well I'm

even more amazed when the computer beast

humans and things are humans and

naturally good at this is how we make

progress

in the early days of the Google brain

project I gave the team a very simple

instruction which was built the biggest

neuro Network possible like a thousand

computers in your net is something very

close to a simulation of how the brain

works it's very probabilistic but with

contextual relevance in your brain you

have long neurons that connect to

thousands of other neurons and you have

these pathways that are formed and

forged based on what then brain needs to

do when a baby tries something and it

succeeds there's a reward and that

pathway that created the success is

strengthened if it fails at something

the pathway is weakened and so over time

the brain becomes honed to be good at

the environment around it really is just

getting machines to learn by themselves

is it called deep learning and deep

learning and neural networks mean

roughly the same thing deep learning is

a totally different approach where the

computer learns more like a toddler by

just getting a lot of data and

eventually figuring stuff out the

computer just gets smarter and smarter

as it has more experiences so imagine if

you will the neural network we're like a

thousand computers and it wakes up not

knowing anything and we made it watch

YouTube for a week

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and so after watching YouTube for a week

what were they learn we had a hypothesis

they learn to detect commonly occurring

objects in videos and so we know the

human faces appear a lot in videos so we

looked and lo and behold there was a

neuron that had learn to detect human

faces know what else appears in videos a

lot so we looked into surprise there was

actually a neuron and that had learn to

detect cats

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that's the remember CF recognition wow

that's a cat okay cool great it's all

pretty innocuous when you're thinking

about the future

it all seems kind of harmless in benign

but we're making cognitive architectures

that will fly farther and faster than us

and carry a bigger payload and they

won't be warm and fuzzy I think that in

three to five years you will see a

computer system that will be able to

autonomously learn how to understand how

to build understanding not unlike the

way the human mind works

whatever that lunch was it was certainly

delicious simply a sum of Robbie

synthetics is your cook too even

manufactures the raw materials come

round here Robbie I'll show you how this

works one introduces a sample of human

food through this aperture down here

there's a small built-in chemical

laboratory where he analyzed it later he

can reproduce identical molecules in in

any shape or quantity as far as dream

meet Baxter revolutionary new category

of robots with common sense Baxter

Baxter is a really good example of the

kind of competition we face for machines

Baxter can do almost anything we can do

with our hands Baxter costs about what a

minimum-wage worker makes in a year

the Baxter won't be taking the place of

one minimum-wage worker he'll be taking

the place of three because they never

gets hired they never take breaks that's

probably the first thing we're going to

say displacement of jobs they're going

to be done quicker faster cheaper by

machines our ability to even stay

current is so insanely limited compared

to the machines we built for example now

we have this great movement of uber and

lyft are kind of making transportation

cheaper and democratizing transportation

which is great the next step is going to

be that the argument plates by

travellers cars and then all the uber

and lyft drivers had to find something

new to do

there are 4 million professional drivers

in the United States they're unemployed

soon 7 million people to do data entry

those people are going to be jobless

a job isn't just about money right on a

biological level it serves a purpose

becomes a defining thing when the jobs

went away in any given civilization it

doesn't take long until that turns into

violence

we face a giant divide between rich and

poor because that's what automation and

AI will provoke a greater divide between

the haves and have-nots right now it's

working into the middle class into

white-collar jobs IBM's Watson does

business analytics that we used to pay a

business analyst $300 an hour to do

today you go to college to be a doctor

to be an accountant to be a journalist

it's unclear that there's gonna be jobs

there for you if someone's planning for

a 40 year career in radiology just

reading images I think that could be a

challenge to the new drivers of today

but today we live in a robotic case the

da Vinci robot is currently utilized by

variety of surgeons for its accuracy and

its ability to avoid the inevitable

fluctuations of the human hand

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anybody who watches this feels the

amazingness of it

you look through the scope and you've

seen the claw hand holding that woman's

ovary humanity was resting right there

in the hands of this robot people say

it's the future but it's not the future

it's the present if you think about a

surgical robot there's often not a lot

of intelligence in these things but over

time as we put more and more

intelligence into these systems the

surgical robots can actually learn from

each robot surgery they're tracking the

movements they're understanding what

worked and what didn't work and

eventually the robot for routine

surgeries is going to be able to perform

that entirely by itself or with human

supervision normally I do about a

hundred fifty cases that hysterectomies

they say and now most of them are done

robotically I do maybe one open case a

year so do I feel uncomfortable how to

open bases anymore

it seems that we're feeding it and

creating it but in a way we are slave to

the technology because we can't go back

the machines are taking bigger and

bigger bites out of our skill set and

are never increasing speed and so we've

got to run faster and faster to keep

ahead of the machines are you attracted

to me

what are you attracted to me you give me

indications that you are I do yes this

is the future we're headed into it we

want to design our companions we're

gonna like to see a human face on the I

therefore gaming our emotions will be

depressingly easy

we're not that complicated simple

stimulus response I can make you like me

basically by smiling at you a lot yeah

ours are gonna be fantastic at

manipulating us

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so you've developed a technology that

can sense what people are feeling right

we've developed technology that can read

your facial expressions and map that to

a number of emotional states fifteen

years ago I had just finished my

undergraduate studies in computer

science and it struck me that I was

spending a lot of time interacting with

my laptops on my devices yet these

devices had absolutely no clue how I was

feeling I started thinking what if this

device could sense that I was stressed

or I was having a bad day what would

that open up for you can I get a hug we

had kids interact with the technology a

lot of it is still in development but it

was just amazing who likes robots my mom

really hard math questions okay we're

scaring people all right so start by

smiling nice brow furrow nice one

eyebrow raised this generation

technology is just surrounding them all

the time it's almost like they expect to

have robots in their homes and they

expect these robots to be socially

intelligent what makes robots smart put

them in like a math or biology class I

think you would have to train all right

let's walk over here so if you smile and

you raise your eyebrows it's gonna run

over to you

but if you look angry it's gonna run

away we're trading computers to read and

recognize emotions the response so far

has been really amazing people are

integrating this into health apps

meditation apps robots cars we're gonna

see how this unfolds

robots can contain AI but the robot is

just a physical instantiation and the

artificial intelligence is the brain and

so brains can exist purely in software

based systems they don't need to have a

physical form robots can exist without

any artificial intelligence we have a

lot of dumb robots out there but a dumb

robot can be a smart robot overnight

given the right software given the right

sensors we can't help but impute motive

into inanimate objects we do it with

machines we'll treat them like children

we'll treat them like surrogates and

we'll pay the price

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you get welcome to that yeah

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my purpose is to have more human-like

robot which has the human right

intention desire

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the name of the robot is Erica erica is

the most advanced human-like robot in

the world I think Erica and I can gaze

at your face

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only to our properties and we predict

with the conversation partners

especially for the elderly and young

children's handicapped people's ideas

when we talk to the robot we don't fear

the social barriers social pressures the

finally everybody except the Android as

just our friend were partners we have

implemented a simple desires now she

wanted to be a well recognized and she

wanted to arrest

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if a robot could have an intention

there's Oreos

the robot can understand other people's

engagement desires that is tied to

relationships with the people and that

means they like each other

that means well I'm not sure and not to

rub each other

we build about official intelligence and

the very first thing we want to do is

replicate us

I think the key point will come when all

the major senses are replicated sight

touch smell when we replicate our senses

is that when it becomes alive

so many of our machines are being built

to understand us but what happens with

an anthropomorphic creature discovers

that they can adjust their loyalty

adjust their courage adjust their

avarice adjust their cunning the average

person they don't see killer robots

going down the streets they're like what

are you talking about man

we want to make sure we don't have

killer robots going down the street once

they're going down the street it is too

late the thing that worries me right now

that keeps me awake is the development

of autonomous weapons

up to now people have expressed unease

about drones which are remotely piloted

aircraft if you take a drones camera

feed it into the AI system it's a very

easy step from here to fully autonomous

weapons that choose their own targets

release their own missiles

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the expected lifespan of a human being

and that kind of baffling environment

will be measured in seconds

at one point drones or science fiction

and now they've become the normal thing

and war there's over 10,000 and the US

military inventory alone but they're not

just a u.s. phenomenon there's more than

80 countries that operate them it stands

to reason that people making some of the

most important and difficult decisions

in the world are gonna start to use and

implement artificial intelligence

the Air Force just designed a four

hundred billion dollar jet program to

put pilots in the sky and a $500 AI

designed by a couple of graduate

students as being the best human pilots

with a relatively simple algorithm io I

will have as big an impact on the

military as the combustion engine had at

the turn of the century that would

literally touch everything that the

military does from driverless convoys

delivering logistical supplies to

unmanned drones delivering medical aid

to computational propaganda try and win

the hearts and minds of the population

and so it stands to reason that whoever

has the best day I will probably achieve

dominance on this planet at some point

in the early 21st century all of mankind

was united in celebration we marveled at

our own magnificence as we gave birth to

a

I mean artificial intelligence a

singular consciousness that spawned an

entire race of machines we don't know

who struck first us or them but we know

that it was us that scorched the sky

there's a long history of science

fiction not just predicting the future

but shaping the future

Arthur Conan Doyle riding before World

War one only the danger of how

submarines might be used to carry out

civilian blockades at the time he's

writing this fiction the Royal Navy made

fun of Arthur Conan Doyle for this

absurd idea that submarines could be

useful and war

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one of the things we've seen in history

is that our attitude towards technology

but also ethics are very context

dependent

for example the submarine nations like

Great Britain and even the I states

found it horrifying to use the submarine

in fact the German used to the submarine

to carry out attacks was the reason why

the United States joined World War one

but move the timeline forward the United

States of America was suddenly and

deliberately attacked by the Empire of

Japan five hours after Pearl Harbor the

order goes out to commit unrestricted

submarine warfare against Japan so

Arthur Conan Doyle turned out to be

right that's the the great old line

about science fiction it's a lie that

tells the truth fellow executives it

gives me great pleasure to introduce you

to the future of law enforcement

edie 209

this isn't just a question of science

fiction this is about what's next about

what's happening right now

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the role of intelligent systems is

growing very rapidly in warfare everyone

is pushing in the unmanned realm today

Secretary of Defense is very very clear

we will not create fully autonomous

attacking vehicles not everyone is going

to hold themselves to that same set of

values and when China and Russia and

start deploying autonomous vehicles that

can attack and kill what's the move that

we're gonna make you can't say well

we're going to use at homeless weapons

for our our military dominance but no

one else is going to use them if you

make these weapons they're going to be

used to attack human populations in

large numbers

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tournaments weapons that by their nature

weapons of mass destruction because it

doesn't need a human being to guide it

or carry it you only need one person to

you know write a little program

it's just have Cheers the complexity of

this field it is cool it is important it

is amazing it is also frightening and

it's all about trust it's an open letter

about artificial intelligence signed by

some of the biggest names in science

what do they want ban the use of

autonomous weapons the author stated

quote autonomous weapons have been

described as the third revolution in

warfare thousand artificial intelligence

specialists calling for a global ban on

killer robots this open letter basically

says that we should redefine the goal of

the field of artificial intelligence

away from just creating pure undirected

intelligence towards creating beneficial

intelligence the development of AI is

not going to stop it is going to

continue and get better if the

international community isn't putting

certain controls on this people will

develop things that can do anything the

letter says that we are years not

decades away from these weapons being

deployed so we had six thousands of

countries of that letter including many

of the major figures in the field

I'm getting a lot of visits from

high-ranking officials who wish to

emphasize that American Miller dominance

is very important and autonomous weapons

may be part of the Defense Department's

plan that's very very scary because a

value system of military developers of

Technology is not the same as a value

system of the human race out of the

concerns about the possibility that this

technology might be a threat to human

existence

a number of the technologists have

funded the future of life Institute to

try to grapple with these problems all

of these guys are secretive and so it's

interesting to me to see them and you

know all together everything we have is

a result of our intelligence it's not

the result of our big scary teeth or our

large claws or our enormous muscles it's

because we're actually relatively

intelligent and among my generation

we're all having what we call holy cow

or something holy something else moments

because we see that the technology is

accelerating faster than we expected

remember sitting around the table there

with some of the bests and the smartest

minds in the world and what really

struck me was maybe the human brain is

not able to fully grasp the complexity

of the world that we're confronted with

as it's currently constructed the road

that AI is following heads off a cliff

and we need to change the direction that

we're going so that we don't take the

human race off the cliff Google acquired

deep mind several years ago do you mind

operates as a semi independent

subsidiary of Google the thing that

makes deep mind unique is that deep mind

is absolutely focused on creating

digital super intelligence an AI that is

vastly smarter than any human on earth

and ultimately smarter than all humans

on earth combined this is from the deep

mind reinforcement learning system

basically wakes up like a newborn baby

and is shown the screen of an Atari

video game and then has to learn to play

the video game

it knows nothing about objects about

motion about time it only knows that

there's an image on the screen and

there's a score so if your baby woke up

the day it was born and by later

afternoon was playing 40 different Atari

video games at a superhuman level you

would be terrified you would say my baby

is possessed send it back the deep line

system can win at any game it can

already beat all the original Atari

games it is superhuman it plays the

games at SuperSpeed in less than a

minute deep mine turned to another

challenge and the challenge was the game

of Go which people have generally argued

has been beyond the power of computers

to play with the best human go players

first they challenged the european go

champion then they challenged a korean

go champion and they were able to win in

both times in kind of striking fashion

he really articles in new york times

years ago talking about how go would

take a hundred years for us to saw

people say well you know but that's

still just a board poker is an art poker

involves reading people poker involves

lying bluffing it's not an exact thing

that will never be you know a computer

you can't do that they took the best

poker players in the world and took

seven days for the computer to start

demolishing the dunes so the best poker

player in the world the best go player

in the world and the pattern here is

that AI might take a little while to

wrap its tentacles around a new skill

but when it does when it gets it it is

unstoppable

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bleep minds AI as administrator level

access to Google's servers to optimize

energy usage at the data centers however

this could be an unintentional Trojan

horse deepmind has to have complete

control of the datacenters so with a

little software update that a I could

take complete control of the whole

Google System which means they can do

anything take a look at all your data

you do anything we're rapidly headed

towards digital super intelligence that

far exceeds any human don't think it's

very obvious the problem is we don't

really suddenly hit human level

intelligence and say okay let's stop

research it's gonna go beyond human

level intelligence into what's called

super intelligence and that's anything

smarter than us AI at the superhuman

level if we succeed without will be by

far the most powerful invention we've

ever made and the last dimension we ever

have to make

and if we create AI that's smarter than

us we have to be open to the possibility

that we might actually lose control to

them let's say you give it some

objective like you're in cancer and then

you discover that the way it chooses to

go about that is actually in conflict

with a lot of other things you care

about

ai doesn't have to be evil to destroy

humanity

if AI has a goal and humanity just

happens to be in the way it will destroy

him at the humanity as a matter of

course without even thinking about it no

hard feelings it's just like if we're

building a road and an ant hill happens

to be in the way we don't hate ants

we're just building a road and so

goodbye anthill

it's tempting to dismiss these concerns

because it's like something that might

happen in a few decades or 100 years so

why worry but if you go back to

September 11th 1933

Ernest Rutherford who is the most well

known nuclear physicist of his time said

that the possibility of ever extracting

useful amounts of energy from the

transmutation of atoms as he called it

was moonshine

the next morning Leo Szilard who is much

younger physicist read this and got

really annoyed and figured out how to

make a nuclear chain reaction just a few

months later

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we have spent more than two billion

dollars on the greatest scientific

gamble in history so when people say

that oh this is so far off in the future

we don't have to worry about it

they might only be three four

breakthroughs of that magnitude that

will get us from here to super

intelligent machines if it's gonna take

20 years to figure out how the keep AI

beneficial then we should start today

not at the last second when some dudes

drinking Red Bull decide to flip the

switch and test the thing we have five

years I think Digital super intelligence

will happen in my lifetime one hard

percent

what this happens it will be surrounded

by a bunch of people who are really just

excited about the technology they want

to see it succeed but they're not

anticipating that it can get out of

control oh my god I trust my computer so

much that's an amazing question I don't

trust my computer if it's on I take it

off like even it was off I still think

it's all like you know like you really

cannot just like the webcams you don't

know like someone might turn it up don't

know like I don't trust my computer like

in my phone every time they ask me we

send your information to Apple every

time I so trust my phone ok so part of

it is yes I do trust it because it's

really it would be really hard to get

through the day and the way our world is

set up without computers Trust is such a

human experience

I have a patient coming in with

intracranial aneurysm

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they want to look in my eyes and know

that they can trust this person with

their life I'm not horribly concerned

about anything good part of that is

because I have confidence in you

this procedure we're doing today 20

years ago was essentially impossible we

just didn't have the materials in the

technologies could it be any more

difficult thank God so the coil is

barely in there right now it's just a

feather holding it in it's a nervous

time

we're just in purgatory intellectual

humanistic purgatory an AI might know

exactly what to do here

we got the coil into the aneurysm but it

wasn't in tremendously well that I knew

that it would stay so with a maybe 20%

risk of a very bad situation I elected

to just bring her back because of my

relationship with her and knowing the

difficulties of coming in and having the

procedure I consider things when I

should only consider the safest possible

route to achieve success well I had to

stand there for 10 minutes agonizing

about it the computer feels nothing the

computer just does what it's supposed to

do

better and better

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I want to be AI in this case but can a I

be compassionate

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I mean it's everybody's question about

AI we are the sole embodiment of

humanity and it's a stretch for us to

accept that a machine can be

compassionate and loving in that way

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part of me doesn't believe in magic but

part of me has faith that there is

something beyond the sum of the parts if

there is at least a oneness in our

shared ancestry our shared biology our

shared history

some connection there beyond machine

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so then you have the other side of that

is does the computer know it's conscious

or can it be conscious or does it care

does it need to be conscious does it

need to be aware

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I do not think that a robot could ever

be conscious unless they programmed it

that way

conscious no no no I mean I think a

robot could be programmed to be

conscious how they program to do

everything else that's another big part

of our official intelligence is to make

them a conscious and make them feel

back in 2005 we started trying to build

machines with self-awareness

this robot to begin with didn't know

what it was all he knew is that it

needed to do something like walk through

trial and error and figure out how to

walk using its imagination and then it

walked away and then we did something

very cruel we chopped off a leg and

watched what happened

at the beginning it didn't quite know

what had happened but over by the period

of a day and then began to limp and then

a year ago we were training an AI system

for a live demonstration we wanted to

show how we wave all these objects in

front of the camera under the AI can

recognize that the objects and so we're

preparing this demo and we had an aside

screen this ability to watch what

certain neurons were responding to and

suddenly we notice that one of the

neurons was tracking faces it was

tracking our faces as we were moving

around now the spooky thing about this

is that we never trained the system to

recognize human faces and yet somehow

and learn to do that

even though these robots are very simple

we can see there's something else on

there it's not just program so this is

just the beginning I often think about

that beach in Kitty Hawk the 1903 flight

by Orville and Wilbur Wright there's a

kind of a canvas claim it's wood and

iron and it gets off the ground for what

a minute and 20 seconds and he's winning

the day before took him back down again

and it was just around 65 summers or so

after that moment that you have a 747

taking off from JFK

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with major concern of someone on the

airplane might be whether or not their

salt free diet meal is going to be

coming to them or not with a whole

infrastructure with travel agents and

tower control and it's all casual it's

all part of the world right now as far

as we've come with machines and thinking

solve problems we're a Kittyhawk now

we're in the wind we have our tattered

canvas planes up in the air

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but what happens in 65 summers or so we

will have machines that are behind you

control should we worry about that I'm

not sure it's going to help

nobody has any idea today what it means

for a robot to be conscious there is no

such thing there are a lot of smart

people and I have a great deal of

respect for them but the truth is

machines are natural Psychopaths fear

came back into the market and down eight

hundred nearly a thousand in a heartbeat

they did is plastic capitulation there

are some people were proposing there was

some kind of fat finger error take the

flash crash of 2010 in a matter of

minutes trillion dollars in value was

lost in stock market the Dow dropped

nearly a thousand points in a half hour

so what went wrong by that point in time

more than 60% of all the trades that

took place on stock exchange we're

actually being initiated by computers

the short story what happened in the

flash crash is that algorithms responded

to algorithms and it compounded upon

itself over and over and over again the

matter of minutes at one point the

market fell as if down a well

there is no regulatory body that can

adapt quickly enough to prevent

potentially disastrous consequences of

AI operating in our financial systems

they are so prime for manipulation let's

talk about the speed with which we are

watching this market be theory that's

the type of AI run amok that scares

people when you give them a goal they

will relentlessly pursue that goal

how many computer programs are there

likeness

nobody knows one of the fascinating

aspects about AI in general is that no

one really understands how it works

even people who create AI don't really

fully understand because it has millions

of elements it becomes completely

impossible for a human being to

understand what's going on

Microsoft had set up this artificial

intelligence called ti' on Twitter which

was a chat bot they started out in the

morning and ty was starting to tweet and

learning from stuff that was being sent

to him from other Twitter people because

some people like trawl attacked him

within 24 hours the Microsoft Bob became

a terrible person

they had to literally pull tie off the

net because he had turned into a monster

a misanthropic races horrible person you

never want to move and nobody had

foreseen this

the whole idea of AI is that we are not

telling it exactly how to achieve a

given outcome or a goal ai develops on

its own

we're worried about super intelligent AI

the master chess player that will

outmaneuver us but hey I won't have to

actually be that smart to have massively

disruptive effects on human civilization

we've seen over the last century it

doesn't necessarily take a genius to

knock history off in a particular

direction and it won't take a genius ai

to do the same thing

bogus election news stories generated

more engagement on Facebook then top

real stories Facebook really is the

elephant in the room

AI running Facebook newsfeed the task

for AI is keeping users engaged but no

one really understands exactly how this

AI is achieving this goal Facebook is

building an elegant mirrored wall around

us a mirror that we can ask who's the

fairest of them all and it will answer

you you time it again you slowly begin

to warp our sense of reality warp our

sense of politics history global events

until determining what's true and what's

not true is virtually impossible

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the problem is that AI doesn't

understand that hey I just had a mission

maximize user engagement and it achieved

that nearly two billion people spend

nearly 1 hour on average a day basically

interacting with AI that is shaping

their experience even Facebook engineers

they don't like fake news let's very bad

business they want to get rid of fake

news it's just very difficult to do

because how do you recognize news is

fake if you cannot read all of those

news personally there's so much active

misinformation and it's packaged very

well and it looks the same when you see

it on a Facebook page or you turn on

your television it's not terribly

sophisticated but it is terribly

powerful and what it means is that your

view of the world which 20 years ago was

determined if you watch the nightly news

by three different networks the three

anchors who endeavor but try to get it

right you might have had a little bias

one way or the other but largely

speaking we can all agree on an

objective reality that objectivity is

gone and Facebook is completely

annihilated

if most of your understanding of how the

world works is derived from Facebook

facilitated by algorithmic software that

tries to show you the news you want to

see that's a terribly dangerous thing

and the idea that we have not only set

that in motion but allowed bad-faith

actors access to that information this

is a recipe for disaster I think that it

will definitely be lots of bad actors

trying to manipulate the world with AI

2016 was a perfect example of an

election where there was lots of AI

producing lots of fake news and

distributing it for for a purpose for a

result ladies and gentlemen honourable

colleagues it's my privilege to speak to

you today about the power of big data

and psychographics in the electoral

process and specifically to talk about

the work that we contributed to Senator

Cruz's presidential primary campaign

Cambridge analytics emerged quietly as a

company that according to its own height

and has the ability to use this

tremendous amount of data in order to

affect societal change in 2016 they had

three major clients Ted Cruz was one of

them it's easy to forget that only 18

months ago senator Cruz was one of the

less popular candidates seeking

nomination so what was not possible

maybe like 10 or 15 years ago was that

you can send fake news to exactly the

people that you want to send it to and

then you could actually see how he or

she reacts on Facebook and then adjust

that information according to the

feedback that you got and so you can

start developing kind of a real-time

management of a population in this case

we've zoned in on a group we've called

persuasion these are people who are

definitely going to vote to caucus but

they need moving from the center a

little bit more towards the right in

order to support Cruz they need a

persuasion message gun rights I've

selected that narrows the field slightly

more and

we know that we need a message on gun

rights it needs to be a persuasion

message and it needs to be nuanced

according to the certain personality

that we're interested in through social

media there's an infinite amount of

information that you can gather about a

person we have somewhere close to four

or five thousand data points on every

adult in the United States it's about

targeting the individual it's like a

weapon which can be used in the totally

wrong direction that's the problem with

all of this data it's almost as if we

built the bullet before we built the gun

Ted Cruz employed our data our

behavioral insights he started from a

base of less than 5% and had a very slow

and steady but firm rise to above 35%

making him obviously the second most

threatening contender in the race now

clearly the Cruz campaign is over now

but what I can tell you is that of the

two candidates left left in this

election one of them is using these

technologies Donald Trump do solemnly

swear that I will faithfully execute the

office of President of the United States

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elections are marginal exercise doesn't

take a very sophisticated AI in order to

have a disproportionate impact before

Trump breaks it was another supposed

client well at 20 minutes to 5 we can

now say the decision taken in 1975 by

this country to join the common market

has been reversed by this referendum to

leave the EU Cambridge analytic a

allegedly uses AI to push through two of

the most ground shaking pieces of

political change in the last 50 years

these are epochal events and if we

believe the hype they are connected

directly to a piece of software

essentially created by a professor at

Stanford

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back in 2013 I described that what

they're doing is possible and warned

against this happening in the future

at the time we have kasinsky was a young

Polish researcher working at the

psychometric Center so what Michael had

done was to gather the largest-ever data

set of how people behaved on Facebook

psychometrics is trying to measure

psychological traits such as personality

intelligence political views and so on

now traditionally those traits were

measured using tests and questioners

personality tests the most benign thing

you could possibly think of something

that doesn't necessarily have a lot of

utility right our idea was that instead

of tests and questioners we could simply

look at the digital footprints of

behaviors that we are all living behind

to understand openness conscientiousness

neuroticism you can easily buy personal

data such as where you live what club

memberships you've joined which gym you

go to there are actually marketplaces

for personal data turns out we can

discover an awful lot about what you're

gonna do based on a very very tiny set

of information we are training deep

learning networks in fair intimate

trades people's political views

personality intelligence sex orientation

just from an image of someone's face

now think about countries which are not

so free and open-minded if you can

reveal people's religious views or

political views or sexual orientation

based on only profile pictures this

could be literally an issue of life and

death I think there's no going back

you know what the Turing test is it's

when a human interacts with a computer

and if the human doesn't know they're

interacting with a computer the test is

passed and over the next few days you're

gonna be the human component in the

Turing test holy

that's right Kayla you got it because if

that test is passed

you are dead center of the greatest

scientific event in the history of man

if you've created a conscious machine

it's not the history of man that's the

history of gods

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it's almost like technology is a garden

of itself

like the weather we can't impact it we

can't slow it down we can't stop it

we feel powerless if we think of God is

an unlimited amount of intelligence the

closest we can get to that is by

evolving our own intelligence by merging

with the artificial intelligence we're

creating today our computers phones

applications give us superhuman

capability so as the old maxim says if

you can't beat them join them

it's about a human machine partnership I

mean we already see how you know our

phones for example it's act as memory

prosthesis right I don't have to

remember your phone number anymore

because it's on my phone

it's about machines augmenting our human

abilities as opposed to like completely

displacing them if you look at all the

objects that have made the leap from

analog to digital over the last 20 years

it's a lot we're the last analog object

in the digital universe and the problem

with that of course is that the data

input output is very limited it's this

it's these our eyes are pretty good

we're able to take in a lot of visual

information what our information output

is very very very low the reason this is

important if we envision a scenario

where AI is playing a more prominent

role in societies we want good ways to

interact with this technology so that it

ends up augmenting us

I think it's incredibly important to AI

not the other it must be us and I could

be wrong about what I'm saying I'm

certainly open to ideas or anybody can

suggest a path that's better

but I think we're really gonna have to

either merge with a IOP left behind

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it's hard to kind of think of unplugging

a system that's distributed everywhere

on the planet that's distributed now

across the solar system you can't just

you know shut that off

we've opened Pandora's box we've

Unleashed forces that we can't control

we can't stop we're in the midst of

essentially creating a new life-form on

earth

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we don't know what happens next we don't

know what shape the intellect of a

machine will be when that intellect is

far beyond human capabilities it's just

not something that's possible

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the least scary future I can think of is

one where we have at least democratized

AI because if one company or small group

for people managers to develop godlike

digital super intelligence they could

take over the world

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at least when there's an evil dictator

that human is going to die but for an AI

there would be no death they would look

forever and then you'd have an immortal

dictator from which we can never escape

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you

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