Original subtitles

All right, let's go to episode three of

the hot seat. We have a few trades

submitted this week. We'll start from the

bottom. We'll do it a little bit

different, go from the bottom up today. So

starting with Jerry here, he's posted his

trade in its own post. So let's take a

look at his trades. So he's got a couple

of trades in here. We've got the Asian

Valley Area High, Asian Valley Area Low.

So developing profile, overnight profile

developing here. So C-rank trades. So the

first trade I see you took a short from

this point and that got stopped out. You

said just above break even. So what I can

see in that looks like you might have

tried to fade the high volume, the

midpoint of this big amount of volume

here. What I'll say on that first trade

there, Jerry, is that this is quite more

of an even distribution profile. You don't

really have a distinctive sharp edge on

the high volume node in this profile.

Remember for the best high volume node

trades, the ones that are more likely to

provide support resistance, you want a

sharp, distinctive edge versus this where

it's just a big, huge cluster of volume.

So yeah, not a great quality trade that

first one, but the second one was really

good. So the second trade here, you took

that based off the developing value area

low and exited it at this point here. This

being a relatively even distribution

profile, you got no distinctive nodes. You

have a couple of clusters here. Hence why

your exit on this trade was really good

because you exited at the midpoint of the

upper cluster. And your entry was really

good being that it was the developing

value area low in an even distribution

profile. So nice C rank trade there and

nice exit. I'm very happy with that second

trade. So nicely done. Next one is from

Graham. This trade taking only three

minutes and your confluences for this one

were a high volume node above a current

session value area low. So let's have a

look at the trade. And you said what you

were looking at here was a break and

retest of a current session value area

low. So you're watching the charts.

Current session POC and VAH had been

shifting down. So you had a bearish bias,

took the retest with one small confluence

of an HVN sitting above the current

session value area low. You had that

bearish bias in mind, seeing value

shifting down, seeing that POC shifting

down. And when price broke down away from

POC, that was really a perfect retest for

a short. Price failing off the developing

point of control is of course a bearish

sign. It failed and broke away below value

of the developing session. And you simply

bought a retest. So price bouncing off

this sort of edge down here, this little

cluster of volume that was put in earlier,

came back up towards value and you sold at

the retest of the developing value area,

which is just on the underside of that

developing point of control. So really a

good area to short from. And of course,

you do have a distinctive ledge there on

just below point of control as well. This

volume dropped off completely and then

made a very clear shelf right next to that

value area low. So you are correct in

your, I really like the read on the

profile here, Graham. It's a great trade,

great short. For those of you watching,

remember the POC, especially developing

POC is a great compass as to where price

is more likely to go. So as soon as you

see price properly fail away from point of

control and go into this sort of price

discovery mode, you want to start looking

for those continuation plays. So Graham

had the right idea here. As soon as price

made that meltdown, he sold the retest.

His price retested that value area for a

nice three minute trade and an easy win.

So very happy with that. Great trade. Next

trade here is from Nylos. So we have

nearly an hour long trade. So a bit of a

longer one. Confluences we have, current

session point of control, previous day's

point of control, overnight value high and

high volume nodes. So a bunch of

confluences there. And she's got one loss

and one win for the day. Loss was me

trying to fade back into value on a clear

breakout. So I flipped to longs after,

waited for a nice confident break. Then

waited for the retest, which had the stack

confluences as she listed above. All of

these combined made it an A-ranked setup.

Yes, correct. So let's have a look at the

trades. So here's the executions. The

first failed trade and the second winning

trade. And you've posted the second here

chart with the markup. So I'll put these

side by side in the edited episode here so

you can compare them. But let me have a

look and read them through. So your first

trade was over here trying to fade the

previous day point of control. You did get

a reaction, but didn't quite hit TP and

came back and stopped you out. And once

you saw that confident breakup above the

previous day value high, you went and took

that retest for the eventual winning

trade. And you've drawn the profile to the

time of the second trade. So what I was

saying about this, your second trade was a

great entry. Again, like you said, you

have the stack levels. So I like how you

waited for price to pull back. You didn't

buy the retest of the previous day value

high, but instead waited for price to pull

down towards the more stacked area here.

So you have all these confluences all

stacked between these two value levels.

You got value high, point of control, but

then current session point of control and

current session value high in between that

as well. So really accumulating a position

anywhere in between these two levels with

the stop behind these levels is the

perfect area for a nice A rank trade. So

that's really good, really well done on

your trade entry there. With these levels

all stacked so closely together, it was

definitely the right approach to get your

entry closer to the extreme edge of these

confluences versus getting in on that

first retest of the previous day value

high. Because remember the POC of the

developing session of any session really

acts like a magnet for price. So on a

retest, if POC is right there next to a

value level, it's more likely that the

market is going to pull towards that fair

value point to retest that before the next

leg up testing fair value instead of just

testing the previous day value high. With

point of control being so close, that was

definitely the right approach waiting for

that to pull back into that point. So

great entry, and I assume your exit was

targeting the high made here as well. So

good targeting, really good entry, and

great stop loss placement, giving it 10

points room to breathe. Really good second

trade. That first trade, in terms of signs

for avoiding that first trade, I'd say

that first trade wasn't totally invalid.

You did get a bearish reaction, of course,

a very short term bearish reaction, of

course, it didn't quite make it to your

take profit. A lot of the time you can

just get a quick reaction from the value

levels regardless of bias. But all I can

say is that seeing that strong reaction

from the previous day's value low, very

strong bullish reaction all the way back

up, very little volume at these lows. The

price building volume here is a potential

sign that the market wants to shift and

push value higher. But other than that, I

wouldn't say there's anything necessarily

wrong with that first trade you took. Just

a bit ambitious of a take profit target

for a single confluence trade. But that

second trade had all the right confluences

in line and was a great A rank trade. So

well done on that trade selection. Next

one here from Zakaya, a B rank trade with

two confluences. And this was a four point

loss. So one minute trade. Let's take a

look at the trade and then have a look at

Zakaya's thoughts afterwards. So we can

see the profile is a bit cut off here, but

we can see price pushed up to the previous

day value high. Zakaya has gone here to

look for a retest of the previous day's

point of control. And it looks like the

developing value high and developing point

of control just beneath as well. And price

just melted through. So there's the full

profile. So your trade was entered here at

this point, previous day's point of

control. You did have a high volume node

across there, a small shelf, and then the

developing value area high. So you had all

the right confluences here. And that trade

pushed through and hit that stop loss as

it came down towards developing point of

control. Now you did note that price did

give that quick one-to-one reaction. You

can see at the time of your trade, you did

enter there. And it did give that quick

snap up to where your take profit was. Now

I wonder if you just didn't get filled on

that take profit target, or maybe you

didn't want to close out the trade. Maybe

you wanted a bit more from the trade. I'll

have a look in a second. But yes, you got

that quick initial reaction, but the

market did have other thoughts in mind.

Okay, so I can see it said, because of the

stress and price moving fast, I didn't

move my stop loss to break even at one-to

-one, then the full stop out was hit. I

need to be into karma, avoid adjusting or

adding contracts on the fly and simplify

my pre-market rules so execution stays

controlled and consistent. Fair enough. So

you almost had the chance to get out of

that at break even. You did get that one

-to-one trade. But I'd say still a great

trade, great confluence, great trade

selection. And the only other thing I

would say is I can see on your chart that

this was really close to the PPI news

release. So when trading pre-news, just

know the markets can get a bit funky and

disrespect the technicals as the market

gears up for that news release. So a

little bit of a risky time to be trading.

However, you still would have got that

quick snap reaction on one-to-one had your

orders been placed correctly there. I

would say not terrible trade selection.

Just be mindful of these trading

immediately pre-news release, unless

you're willing to give your trade more

room to breathe and willing to take on

that risk of the markets, not respecting

the technicals as well as it normally

would. Next one here from Graham. Two

contracts with a small win. Break and

retest of current session value low. Says

he watched the price move up, but then

struggled to push even anymore. The

highest point was 16 ticks. So he's moved

to stop loss up to plus five ticks in

profit, which turned out to be correct as

price didn't push back, push on and came

back. And he's added a little note here

later saying that had he left the trade,

he wouldn't have been stopped out and the

price would have hit his take profit

target in hindsight. So let's see. So he's

taken that trade, current session value

lower retest. So you still took a pretty

decent trade selection there for what it's

worth. Like you said, that initial

reaction, just not quite hitting your full

target. I still think you made a good

choice there, moving that stop to break

even, seeing that price failed to push

above these highs. I'd say overall, that

was pretty good trade management, even

though you did say that later on, it would

have gone all the way to profit. You

moving that stop to break even when you

notice that price sort of ran out of steam

is going to save you more often than not

in the long run. So I wouldn't say that

was necessarily a bad thing. So decent

selection for a C rank trade and good risk

management. Next one from Brendan. He took

a loss here, rated this a C rank trade,

entered with 25% risk. That's good. Let's

have a look at the trade. So Brendan

fading the valley area low here, trying to

sell a price move back up towards POC and

stopped him out. So I see on your comment

there, Brendan, you noticed this after the

fact that there was a D shaped profile,

which would have indicated a balanced

price range is exactly what I was going to

say. Immediately looking at this profile,

although price was below the valley area

low because of the distribution of this

profile, that is a perfect time to fade

the edges and play back towards POC. So

good reflection on that in hindsight,

Brendan, just keep in mind when you have

these even distribution profiles, you

don't want to try and play the breakaway

that will it will eventually break away

from that balanced price range. But while

the profile looks like this, your best

highest probability trade is to fade the

edges and fade the highs, fade the lows,

the value highs, value lows of the

developing profile. Keep fading them over

and over again until it breaks away. So

your trade there was anticipating a

breakaway to the downside. However, the

profile being balanced where you entered

was basically the perfect area, almost the

perfect area to enter long to trade

towards POC. So good reflection on that,

Brendan, and just keep that in mind.

Whenever there's a balanced price range or

a balanced profile, it's almost always

best to just keep fading the edges and

don't anticipate that breakout. Allow the

market to break out when it's ready. Just

keep fading the edges over and over again

until that breakout happens. Next one from

Mark. This one is some currency futures

trades. We've got a couple of screenshots

here. Reasons he went for a long general

uptrend. Price capped up from Friday night

to Saturday opening. Price sustained above

value highs for an hour. Daily point of

control remained above previous value

highs. And developing value low was in

line with value highs of the previous day

indicating discounted area for a buy into

a continuation. So let's have a look at

this. This is a losing trade Mark said. So

there's the trade setup. Let's have a look

at the more zoomed in view here. So here's

the outcome of the trade. He went long

here on the previous day value high and

price melted down. So yeah, overall good

read on the bias on the initial bias there

Mark with the bullish open and pushing

above the value highs. But you had it

completely right here in your second

comment noticing the same similar comment

I made on our previous playbook video is

that you really want to watch that

developing point of control and see which

side of point of control the market is

holding and that will determine where

price is more likely to go again that

developing point of control is a really

good compass for price. It's the only clue

there that the market potentially was

looking to fade off the value highs versus

continuing the breakaway. As I know you

trade off a 15 minute chart here Mark so

it's a bit harder to see but you can kind

of see it here price put in that fair

value a bit higher above the previous day

value levels. However, the market here

failed down below previous day below

developing point of control came up failed

again below came up failed again below so

price kept failing off that point of

control level of the developing session at

the value highs. So it's failing to break

above fair value of the developing session

while at a premium price point for

yesterday's session giving a clue that

that this was about to fail. So that's

your one clue for this loss here was

seeing that fair value develop higher but

then fail and then reject reject reject at

a premium price point being a perfect area

for price to sell off from. So use that

fair value use that developing point of

control as a compass and pay close

attention to which side of point of

control the market is holding. So this was

not able to hold above fair value of the

developing session failed below fair value

at a premium price point relative to

yesterday causing that big sell off there.

So good reflection Mark and a great

example there of a failed point of

control. So something to keep in mind for

any markets you trade guys watch that

developing point of control it's hugely

important and is the best compass for

short-term buyers. Last one here is from

Dante. So let's have a look at the trade.

So it looks like he was targeting this

area down here for a long uh you've got

your previous day's point of control and

the edge of this developing profile. We've

got a massive downwards push from the

market up here melting through below

developing point of control below that

previous week's point of control which was

previously being used as support and

melted through that. So Dante looking to

take a little bounce here after previous

day's point of control and there's the

trade outcome almost little to no reaction

and just melted through. So Dante I would

say this is just a typical C rank trade

behavior here. You've got no high volume

nodes down at the edge of this profile.

You've got a massive sell off from the

highs that melted through all the other

levels. So seeing it push through the

developing point of control with no

reaction push through the previous week's

point of control with no reaction when

previously it was being used as a solid

level of support uh with little other

confirmation from the developing profile

here and in the context of what's just

happened those previous levels getting

sliced through. Yeah not the highest

probability trade to try and long this for

a quick bounce. So so I would say valid C

rank selection however can't expect much

from this because there's not many

confluence not much reason for the market

to do anything at that price point given

the context and given the profile at that

point. So I would say I'd say yes C rank

trade with a single confluence but no real

reason to take that trade no nothing that

would give you much confidence and longing

that level. So yeah had the market been

more rangy and the market was you know

kind of just trickling down catching

little bounces trickling down bouncing off

the levels as it moves down yes you might

have had more chance of that hitting but

seeing as it absolutely cut through every

single level and every single shelf on the

way down with no reaction and being little

to no reason to take the trade based on

the developing profile here off this

previous day level that was a trade that

definitely could be avoided in the future.

So keep that in mind remember the more

reason to take the trade the more

confidence we can have on a trade this had

little to no reason and even maybe

negative reason with what had just

happened to all the levels beforehand that

might have been some sort of news driven

event or fundamental driven event versus

just a random sell-off. So that's all the

trades for this week guys thank you for

your submissions these have been really

cool to go through nice to break down

different trades and the way you guys are

approaching the market using the Volpro

method so let me know if you found this

one helpful and go ahead and submit more

for next week there's going to be not much

else from me posted in the school group

just this week as this is crunch time this

is go time week for me I'm shipping

everything over to Australia including

myself and the wife this week so I won't

have much time for trading or anything

else other than just moving so get your

trade submitted for the hot seat for this

week hope you found this helpful and let's

keep this going I really enjoy doing these

and I'm glad you guys are finding a lot of

value in these episodes