Original subtitles

Welcome to the first episode of the Evolve

Pro Hot Seat. So I'm going to do these

every single week and you can find these

pinned at the top of the school homepage

feed. Just over here I'll have these

pinned every week and we'll start with

episode 1 obviously. And what we're going

to do is just submit your trades if you're

wanting to get your trade roasted or

reviewed. I will run through the trade

setup and break them down so you can get a

bit more educational value out of this

group as well. This is more like a very

similar to the playbook breakdowns but

instead of breaking down my own trade

setups or potential trade setups it'll be

trade setups that you've taken and they

can be wins, losses, whatever and we can

break down why the trade worked or why the

trade didn't work and get a little bit of

feedback and run down on the trades you

submit. So the first one we've got here is

from Mark. Now Mark has a trade setup here

trading the futures currency which is the

Australian dollar. So he's got all his

levels on the chart here and he's looking

at a trade setup. So we've got a few

screenshots here. Here's your developing

volume profile and the value levels he's

got on the screen here. So we've got

previous week's value area high. You've

got your developing volume profile here on

the left and you're far above all the

value levels here below. So you've got

overnight value high, previous day value

high, previous week's POC. So immediately

we can tell based off the value levels and

where price is that price is moving

towards a premium price point and is in a

bullish trend. So we've got last week's

fair value way down here at 648. Your

previous day's value high premium level

also at 648 and then your overnight value

high at 649. So value keeps shifting up

with those value highs pushing up and up

and up. In the previous week's value area

high trading right there at this moment at

the time of Mark's trade selection. So

first thing we can tell here is Mark is

anticipating a breakout trade instead of

fading the previous week's value high.

He's anticipating a breakout. You can see

he's got his potential trade idea outlined

here and this is what he's waiting to

attempt here. So what we can see on the

developing profile is we've got fair value

point of control is down right down at

this point. Price is pushed up and has

developed volume at the highs and is

developing volume. You can see you've got

a high volume node here developing across

the previous week's value area high level.

So participants are finding value, a

pocket of value at a very important

premium price point up here at previous

week's value high. And someone asked me a

question the other day. How do you tell

when price is going to break out versus

fade back into value? This can be one good

clue is that if price starts to develop a

pocket of value across, in this case, a

premium price point being previous week's

value high, price starts to develop value

across that level and show that there's

two-sided transactions up here because

that's what volume nodes represent, it's

two-sided transactions, that can be a good

sign that price is potentially going to

break away and break through this price

point. So Mark's anticipating that and I'm

taking a guess he's anticipating that

based off the overall trend and how price

is pulled away from previous value highs

and the previous week's fair value, he's

anticipating a continuation of bullish

momentum and instead of fading this level,

he's looking for a breakout. So that's

really good, really good thing to see off

the bat. You can see before Mark's trade

is triggered, price is confirming that

developing more value across this previous

week's value area high. Got that high

volume node developing stronger and

stronger here. And also we're above the

current session's developing profile,

above that value high and holding above

that value high, developing that pocket of

value. Again, giving more confluence, that

price is more likely to break out from

this point instead of fade back into

value. And there we go, that's Mark's

trade. Triggered a breakout, Mark entering

the trade on a break above the high volume

node. Interesting approach for execution,

this is not wrong, it's just a different

way to do things, right? So instead of

taking a retest on the other side after

the breakout's confirmed, Mark's

anticipating a breakout, has entered his

trade as price pushed away from this

pocket of value and above the previous

week's value high and has targeted 20

ticks. You can see his stop loss placement

was behind the high volume node after that

breakout, which is really good. It's

exactly what you want to be doing. And he

got that nice strong push to the upside

correctly anticipating the breakout. And

then he's shared a screenshot here showing

how far the trade really went. Over 59

ticks up at the time of that screenshot.

So what I'll say about this trade is a

really solid read on the overall context.

This is exactly how you start to get

higher win rates and stop taking lower

quality trades by developing a story

around the context of price. Mark reading

the direction of this correctly and

anticipating that breakout by waiting to

see value develop across that level with

his bullish bias in mind and aiming to

take a breakout trade. So I'm overall

really, really happy with this trade set

up. Really well done. Really nice read and

great stop loss placement and a nice

arbitrary target of 20 ticks. All I'll say

is that the entry method can be a bit

risky like this. You guys watching don't

want to just immediately go and employ

this type of entry method. You'd have to

test it. Mark obviously familiar with his

own approach to trading this. But one

thing to be aware of is if you're entering

a trade on a breakout like this, you just

have to be aware that yes, although price

could push above the previous week's value

high and above that high volume node when

Mark got his entry, it could just as

easily just wick that and come back and

forth and still consolidate building that

value before the potential breakout. So

you do have to give a bit of room for that

just to let the trade breathe in case that

breakout doesn't happen the moment your

trade gets triggered. But it's still a

valid approach to getting an entry. Just

be aware of that wherever your entry is

triggered. If you're anticipating a

breakout and you're getting your entry on

where you expect that breakout to occur,

there is a good chance that price could

still pull back and just keep developing.

You never know exactly when that breakout

is going to occur. So just keep that in

mind. And the value in Mark's approach, I

will say though, is that sometimes price

is too strong and does not come back to

retest the area that it broke away from.

You can see if Mark didn't take this

approach of entering the breakout instead

of waiting for the retest, you can see

that price never came to retest that

level. It is a valid approach. It's a more

risky approach, but a very valid approach.

I also take breakout trades like this.

Sometimes you would have seen on stream

last week. I took a very similar trade on

the S&P, anticipating a breakout and not

waiting for the retest, but taking the

breakout trade as price pushed above. So

really, really happy with this trademark.

Really well done. Great read of the market

and nothing to roast on that trade. The

next trade we have here is from Dominic.

And Dominic is trading the NQ here. He's

classified this trade as a B setup. So two

confluences, but we'll take a look at that

in a second. So let's have a look at the

trade. So he's got here a developing

profile. All right, can't quite see the

times on the chart here. Can't quite see

there. If you can, for future reference,

guys, if you can, just make sure the full

image is in picture so I can see the times

and understand what we've got here. But

the profile, you want to stop that

overnight profile right here at the 9.30

open. So I'd say, first of all, nice

trade, but you've got to make sure you

stop that profile at 9.30. It looks like

you've drawn the previous day's overnight

profile. 6 p.m. Sunday, 6 p.m. Through to

the New York Open. Your trade taking place

at around 10 a.m. In the morning on

Monday. That's what I can see. But yeah,

if you guys could make sure the full

picture's in view so I can break it down

properly. What I'm assuming this trade

here is, is that overnight volume profile

from Sunday Open is this, right? And he's

got it extended into the regular trading

hours session. So you want to stop that

profile right here and then put in the

overnight value levels and then trade the

developing regular trading hours profile

moving forward into the regular trading

hours session. But I can say, I can still

break down this trade, right? So overnight

value high was likely still pretty close

to where you took your trade. And that

high volume node there, very recent high

volume node. So still a valid trade setup.

I like how you took the trade off the

failure of this value high and bought back

right at point of control. So that was the

right idea there. You are selling off a

failure point, off a premium price point,

and buying back at point of control, which

is exactly where you want to be exiting.

What I will say is just make sure your

profile is marked up correctly. You want

to, again, be stopping that profile right

there at 930 and then extending those new

overnight value levels at 930 from that

profile. Your entry was pretty good,

right? Price broke back down, back into

value, pulled back up. I can see it's

where you got your sell position as it

pulled back up to retest. And you got a

pretty perfect entry there. It's price

melted down and you got a nice buyback at

point of control. So that's a really good

solid execution. Just make sure your

profile is drawn to the correct levels and

you're putting the correct levels on the

chart. Otherwise, you have the right idea

here. This would be, if the profiles are

drawn up correctly, I would overall rank

this still a C ranked trade. Without

seeing the developing profile or anything

here, you've got one confluence, which is

the overnight value area high sitting

across this point. But nice trade, right

idea. You got a nice outcome from that

trade. Next one here is from Malik. Okay.

And he's taking a buy from the overnight

value high and targeting one to one here.

But you can see price came through and

melted through those levels and hit the

stop loss. So we'll break this one down. I

can see off the bat here for Malik. So you

got your developing profile and your

overnight value levels to give you a

little bit of context. So yes, we are

above overnight value highs. And we had a

pretty even distribution across a range up

here with a point of control above

overnight value high. So initially, that's

bullish. But remember, it's only bullish

if price can hold above point of control.

If price is failing to get above point of

control and continuing to fail to get

above the value high. See here as it

approaches the upper end of value here.

Massive drop off in volume and price

rejects back down and rejects back down.

So multiple breakout attempts, but buyers

were unable to carry this above and kept

failing back below point of control. So

when price came back down here and broke

out of the value area down to overnight

value high, there's very little reason to

long here except for a tiny, tiny bounce.

Even then, it's risky counter trend and

counter context. So other than having the

overnight value high, you've got nothing

really here to signify acceptance or value

at this value level here. See, there's no

distinctive high volume node that

developed across that price point. So you

don't have that. The only confluence

you've got in this trade is overnight

value high that was being traded above.

But with the context of having point of

control fail, developing above that level

and then failing and price failing to get

above the even distribution here and

failing to hold above point of control and

having a pretty strong meltdown from point

of control, breaking out of that even

distribution range back down towards

overnight value. Probably a trade you want

to avoid taking. So overall, Malik, I see

this is a C-rank trade and without the

read on the context, making it a lower

likelihood, a lower probability trade.

Yeah, make sure you're getting that

context, that surrounding context.

Remember the developing point of control,

developing fair value. Basically, the

compass on what type of trades or what

directional trades you should be looking

at for your session. So seeing that point

of control initially develop high, but

then failing to get higher and then price

failing to hold above point of control is

a sign to look at breaks back into value

versus looking for continuations to the

upside or even bounces to the upside.

You're better off trade on trend and look

for those moves back into previous value.

The next trade here is from Anim. He took

two trades on the ES. So let's have a look

at the trade. So the first one here, this

is a D-shaped trade. He's got an even

distribution profile. Okay, this is

actually looks like the profile just

before Malik's trade, which is down here.

So same day, same session, different trade

setup. So what Anim's read here is you see

price traded above developed that even

distribution we talked about just

previously. Massive drop off in value to

the upper end and not so much on the lower

end, but to the upper end, total drop off

of value and you've got your developing

value high right here. So Anim's taking

his trade, fading the value area high.

Okay, you can see the failed breakouts

multiple times and that volume

distributing evenly across the midpoint of

the range. So he's faded the value high

back down into value. Now, this is a good

D-shaped setup, really good read on the

profile being D-shaped and fading the

extremes as the best play. The only point

of criticism here is a little bit risky

with point of control being right here and

your take profit being through past point

of control. Obviously, it worked out. But

when you're taking D-shaped profile

trades, you want to be extra careful when

trying to trade through the midpoint of

the even distribution because as price

gets back towards that fair value point,

that's where you're having more likelihood

of a potential pushback and that's more

often than not where your breakout

happens. So if you're wrong on the

direction here and price actually held

point of control and ended up going

upwards, that could have been a real quick

stop out. So that's my only piece of

criticism here is good read on the D

-shaped profile. Just be careful when

holding take profit targets past the point

of control of a D-shaped. So sometimes D

-shaped trades aren't worthwhile if the

point of control is really close to your

entry point. You're only grabbing, you

know, one point, one, two points. You

might want to look to take a trade where

the point of control of the D-shaped is a

bit further away so you can more

comfortably secure in a higher probability

trade that way. Regardless, this trade did

work out. So good job on that. Great job

on the D-shaped read. Just something to

keep in mind for the future is be mindful

of holding. Trades through POC. That can

be a dangerous business to be in. Second

trade you took here was down at overnight

value low in previous week's point of

control and your developing profile right

across here. So overall, good trade. You

don't have much in terms of confluence on

the developing profile. In terms of

context, yes, price did break down through

the overnight fair value point, but it

came back down to a discount point,

overnight value low in previous week's

fair value. So if the fair value point of

the previous week is in line with the

overnight value low discount zone, and

that's a really good area to buy even

without confirmation of the developing

profile. And you can see he got in here.

This is his outline trade. Getting in

after price dipped into that point and

pushed back up, and he's entered here on

the pushback through previous week's point

of control, targeting a one-to-one target.

So really good trade. B-ranked trade. Two

confluences. And nice and simple. Happy

with that trade. Stop-loss placement. Stop

-loss placement is good. Being below the

low of that first push through that price

point. I'm not mad at that. And very good

trade selection. Nice, simple B-ranked

trade. Next trade from Andrew here. Just a

small scout by the looks of things. He's

taken, what's that, two points? And your

question being, you weren't comfortable

with the trade. Oh, you felt comfortable

with the trade knowing there were two

levels of support, but wasn't sure where

the entry should have been in this

context. If in doubt, Andrew, if you've

got two nodes like this developing, try

not to chase it taking the higher one.

Take the one that's further down to give

you more likelihood of a better trade.

Sure, you might miss a trade, but you're

better off getting the more favorable

position than chasing a trade up in this

type of situation. So I would have been

waiting for price to pull back towards at

least the value level with that high

volume node sitting right behind it. So I

think your entry was good there, entering

closer to the previous week's value level

with the high volume node behind as

support. Next one here from Dante. Says

two losses for him. Two A setups. Okay, so

let's have a look. So your first one

you've outlined here, that one obviously

was a hit. I think that must be the trade

you said that you missed your fill by one

tick. Good setup. You know, you got your

buy off the previous day value high in

PDPOC. So a couple of stack levels. And

not sure what the volume profile would

have looked like at the time. But if it

was similar to this, you got your kind of

even distribution and you're entering at

the edges. So not mad at that. And second

time around, you said this one did not

work and got stopped out. Entering at the

same area and you got to stop out. So what

I will say is your entry is pretty good.

Your entry is close to the edge of that

even distribution profile and across two

value levels. So you got a few stack

levels and the developing profile. So yes,

definitely an A trade setup. So I've got

no feet, no criticism for this. You did

choose a good trade setup and getting

stopped out is just unfortunate. As you

know, nothing's going to be 100%. And, you

know, I wouldn't say you did anything

wrong here. It's just part of the random

chaos of trading and the random

distribution of wins and losses. Good

trade selection. Good setup. Just

unfortunate on that. Your second one here,

you're looking at the break away from

value and away from those value levels and

looking for the retest on the other side

to continue short. And you said this one

also got stopped out. You're taking the

same thing on the other side. Two stacked

value levels. Price moved away from value

below POC. And you've also got the value

area lower developing across here to give

extra confluence. So again, A ranked on

the other side. And you're saying you got

stopped out there as well. I'd be

interested to see if Price ended up

pulling right up to point of control and

coming back down or what happened with

this. But other than that, man, you've

selected good trades, good confluences and

a good read on what, you know, your ideal

trade should be in this particular

session. And if they're just if they're

losses, you know, you get stopped out. I

wouldn't be upset at these trades. You'd

make good selection and good read on

context here. Just can't win them all. So

I have no criticism on this. Nothing wrong

with these trades at all, Dante. I am very

happy with that selection and also trades

I likely would have taken. More so this

breakaway is one that I would have looked

to take being as it faded away from value

and came back to retest those stacked

levels. That would be a trade I would

certainly take. And if that stopped out,

that's just is what it is. So no feedback

on that other than good selection, random

distribution of wins and losses. Next

one's from Graham. Graham getting the one

tick tickle on his runner contract. But

overall, a good trade. Let's have a look.

He's grading it as a B rank trade. So your

trade being here. Let's see. You got a buy

order breaking back into value after

pulling off this. Okay, cool. Cool. So I

can see you got the reaction from the

previous week's value high. You can see

you waited on that. Price got a nice

strong reaction back towards value and

back above a high volume node in the

developing profile. That's good. So you've

got your buy position. Price found support

of that high volume node and pushed up.

And I take you just targeted an arbitrary

one-to-one-ish there as well. So pretty

good trade selection. I like how you took

into context that strong reaction from the

previous week's value high first and then

seeing price break back above previous day

value low. So showing price moving back

into previous day's value and reacting to

a key weekly support level. So that's

cool. I would have personally, instead of

buying what you did, I probably would have

waited for that to pull back and test that

edge, that shelf of the developing node

there. So that's the first bit of

feedback. That developing node edge was

developed almost right across the previous

day's value low. So that's a perfect kind

of pullback area to get your entry. So

that's my only real piece of criticism to

this trade. Your take profit targeting

looks like it's an arbitrary one-to-one.

Not so bad. Only thing is you've got a

couple of pieces of resistance here, a

couple of high volume nodes back-to-back

right here. So you could potentially run

into trouble with that high volume node,

another high volume node being right above

your take profit target. But overall, good

read. Just, yeah, I would be getting a

slightly better entry than where you

entered on this particular trade. Yeah, I

can't quite see it price pulling back when

you entered. So I would have waited for

that pullback, which happened just about a

minute or so after your entry. Pullback to

that previous day value low reinforced by

that high volume node. It broke back

above. So nice solid B-ranked trade there

and good read, good trade selection. Not

mad at it. And last one from Tom. So

you've got previous week's value low,

previous day value low, and developing

value low. So three confluences here. And

I will say this is a really clean, really

solid setup. Really well done, Tom. This

is probably as good, as perfect a trade

selection as you can get. So you've got

both previous day, previous week's value

area low stacked right across. Makes

things nice and easy. And then the

developing profile value low right across

there as well, obviously. So no volume

below that. So Tom's got his trade right

on the edge, right on those value lows.

Stacked right together. Makes it nice and

easy. And he's exited at the developing

point of control. So that's as perfect as

you can get for entry, exit, and trade

selection. So really well done, Tom.

That's a great read. And I have nothing,

no feedback to give on this. This is a

perfect trade. Playbook worthy trade. So

well done on that. So I hope you guys

found that episode helpful. We'll do this

every single week. Do them at the end of

every week. And submit your trades just in

the comments of these hot seat posts. And

I'll break them down every week. Again, at

this point, we can get through all of the

submitted trades. But as the group grows,

maybe we'll have to just select a few that

are, I believe, will have the most value

in them for teaching purposes, etc. But

other than that, submit them through. I'm

going to stick you the next post now. Add

your trades. It can be wins or losses.

Just anything you want direct feedback on.

Add them to this post. And we'll break

them down in next week's episode. Bye.