Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated:
1
00:00:00,033 --> 00:00:01,966
Welcome to the first episode of the Evolve
2
00:00:01,966 --> 00:00:03,266
Pro Hot Seat. So I'm going to do these
3
00:00:03,266 --> 00:00:05,500
every single week and you can find these
4
00:00:05,500 --> 00:00:08,166
pinned at the top of the school homepage
5
00:00:08,166 --> 00:00:10,200
feed. Just over here I'll have these
6
00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:11,766
pinned every week and we'll start with
7
00:00:11,766 --> 00:00:13,833
episode 1 obviously. And what we're going
8
00:00:13,833 --> 00:00:16,000
to do is just submit your trades if you're
9
00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:17,700
wanting to get your trade roasted or
10
00:00:17,700 --> 00:00:20,600
reviewed. I will run through the trade
11
00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,066
setup and break them down so you can get a
12
00:00:23,066 --> 00:00:25,500
bit more educational value out of this
13
00:00:25,500 --> 00:00:27,966
group as well. This is more like a very
14
00:00:27,966 --> 00:00:29,600
similar to the playbook breakdowns but
15
00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:31,266
instead of breaking down my own trade
16
00:00:31,266 --> 00:00:33,700
setups or potential trade setups it'll be
17
00:00:33,699 --> 00:00:35,766
trade setups that you've taken and they
18
00:00:35,766 --> 00:00:38,366
can be wins, losses, whatever and we can
19
00:00:38,366 --> 00:00:40,866
break down why the trade worked or why the
20
00:00:40,866 --> 00:00:42,566
trade didn't work and get a little bit of
21
00:00:42,566 --> 00:00:45,633
feedback and run down on the trades you
22
00:00:45,633 --> 00:00:48,433
submit. So the first one we've got here is
23
00:00:48,433 --> 00:00:50,500
from Mark. Now Mark has a trade setup here
24
00:00:50,500 --> 00:00:53,566
trading the futures currency which is the
25
00:00:53,566 --> 00:00:55,300
Australian dollar. So he's got all his
26
00:00:55,300 --> 00:00:57,300
levels on the chart here and he's looking
27
00:00:57,300 --> 00:00:58,866
at a trade setup. So we've got a few
28
00:00:58,866 --> 00:01:00,800
screenshots here. Here's your developing
29
00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:03,266
volume profile and the value levels he's
30
00:01:03,266 --> 00:01:05,099
got on the screen here. So we've got
31
00:01:05,099 --> 00:01:07,466
previous week's value area high. You've
32
00:01:07,466 --> 00:01:09,300
got your developing volume profile here on
33
00:01:09,300 --> 00:01:11,700
the left and you're far above all the
34
00:01:11,700 --> 00:01:13,200
value levels here below. So you've got
35
00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:15,266
overnight value high, previous day value
36
00:01:15,266 --> 00:01:17,533
high, previous week's POC. So immediately
37
00:01:17,533 --> 00:01:19,600
we can tell based off the value levels and
38
00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:21,966
where price is that price is moving
39
00:01:21,966 --> 00:01:25,233
towards a premium price point and is in a
40
00:01:25,233 --> 00:01:27,733
bullish trend. So we've got last week's
41
00:01:27,733 --> 00:01:30,366
fair value way down here at 648. Your
42
00:01:30,366 --> 00:01:32,200
previous day's value high premium level
43
00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:34,600
also at 648 and then your overnight value
44
00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:37,233
high at 649. So value keeps shifting up
45
00:01:37,233 --> 00:01:39,133
with those value highs pushing up and up
46
00:01:39,133 --> 00:01:41,133
and up. In the previous week's value area
47
00:01:41,133 --> 00:01:44,133
high trading right there at this moment at
48
00:01:44,133 --> 00:01:46,600
the time of Mark's trade selection. So
49
00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:48,233
first thing we can tell here is Mark is
50
00:01:48,233 --> 00:01:50,266
anticipating a breakout trade instead of
51
00:01:50,266 --> 00:01:52,433
fading the previous week's value high.
52
00:01:52,566 --> 00:01:54,800
He's anticipating a breakout. You can see
53
00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:57,166
he's got his potential trade idea outlined
54
00:01:57,166 --> 00:01:59,566
here and this is what he's waiting to
55
00:01:59,566 --> 00:02:01,933
attempt here. So what we can see on the
56
00:02:01,933 --> 00:02:04,133
developing profile is we've got fair value
57
00:02:04,133 --> 00:02:06,500
point of control is down right down at
58
00:02:06,500 --> 00:02:08,566
this point. Price is pushed up and has
59
00:02:08,566 --> 00:02:10,233
developed volume at the highs and is
60
00:02:10,233 --> 00:02:12,466
developing volume. You can see you've got
61
00:02:12,466 --> 00:02:14,733
a high volume node here developing across
62
00:02:14,733 --> 00:02:17,000
the previous week's value area high level.
63
00:02:17,166 --> 00:02:19,800
So participants are finding value, a
64
00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:22,233
pocket of value at a very important
65
00:02:22,233 --> 00:02:24,466
premium price point up here at previous
66
00:02:24,466 --> 00:02:26,566
week's value high. And someone asked me a
67
00:02:26,566 --> 00:02:28,000
question the other day. How do you tell
68
00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:31,066
when price is going to break out versus
69
00:02:31,066 --> 00:02:33,533
fade back into value? This can be one good
70
00:02:33,533 --> 00:02:36,000
clue is that if price starts to develop a
71
00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:38,466
pocket of value across, in this case, a
72
00:02:38,466 --> 00:02:41,000
premium price point being previous week's
73
00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:43,700
value high, price starts to develop value
74
00:02:43,700 --> 00:02:45,466
across that level and show that there's
75
00:02:45,466 --> 00:02:47,300
two-sided transactions up here because
76
00:02:47,300 --> 00:02:48,900
that's what volume nodes represent, it's
77
00:02:48,900 --> 00:02:51,100
two-sided transactions, that can be a good
78
00:02:51,100 --> 00:02:52,766
sign that price is potentially going to
79
00:02:52,766 --> 00:02:54,800
break away and break through this price
80
00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,200
point. So Mark's anticipating that and I'm
81
00:02:57,200 --> 00:02:58,900
taking a guess he's anticipating that
82
00:02:58,900 --> 00:03:01,166
based off the overall trend and how price
83
00:03:01,166 --> 00:03:03,166
is pulled away from previous value highs
84
00:03:03,166 --> 00:03:05,466
and the previous week's fair value, he's
85
00:03:05,466 --> 00:03:07,566
anticipating a continuation of bullish
86
00:03:07,566 --> 00:03:09,366
momentum and instead of fading this level,
87
00:03:09,500 --> 00:03:10,733
he's looking for a breakout. So that's
88
00:03:10,733 --> 00:03:12,400
really good, really good thing to see off
89
00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:14,200
the bat. You can see before Mark's trade
90
00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:16,700
is triggered, price is confirming that
91
00:03:16,700 --> 00:03:19,500
developing more value across this previous
92
00:03:19,500 --> 00:03:21,566
week's value area high. Got that high
93
00:03:21,566 --> 00:03:23,200
volume node developing stronger and
94
00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:25,500
stronger here. And also we're above the
95
00:03:25,500 --> 00:03:27,633
current session's developing profile,
96
00:03:27,633 --> 00:03:29,866
above that value high and holding above
97
00:03:29,866 --> 00:03:31,633
that value high, developing that pocket of
98
00:03:31,633 --> 00:03:33,966
value. Again, giving more confluence, that
99
00:03:33,966 --> 00:03:35,833
price is more likely to break out from
100
00:03:35,833 --> 00:03:37,666
this point instead of fade back into
101
00:03:37,666 --> 00:03:39,666
value. And there we go, that's Mark's
102
00:03:39,666 --> 00:03:41,866
trade. Triggered a breakout, Mark entering
103
00:03:41,866 --> 00:03:44,900
the trade on a break above the high volume
104
00:03:44,900 --> 00:03:47,166
node. Interesting approach for execution,
105
00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:48,766
this is not wrong, it's just a different
106
00:03:48,766 --> 00:03:50,466
way to do things, right? So instead of
107
00:03:50,466 --> 00:03:52,400
taking a retest on the other side after
108
00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:53,800
the breakout's confirmed, Mark's
109
00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:55,833
anticipating a breakout, has entered his
110
00:03:55,833 --> 00:03:57,900
trade as price pushed away from this
111
00:03:57,900 --> 00:03:59,766
pocket of value and above the previous
112
00:03:59,766 --> 00:04:01,833
week's value high and has targeted 20
113
00:04:01,833 --> 00:04:03,833
ticks. You can see his stop loss placement
114
00:04:03,833 --> 00:04:05,700
was behind the high volume node after that
115
00:04:05,700 --> 00:04:07,366
breakout, which is really good. It's
116
00:04:07,366 --> 00:04:09,033
exactly what you want to be doing. And he
117
00:04:09,033 --> 00:04:10,666
got that nice strong push to the upside
118
00:04:10,666 --> 00:04:13,333
correctly anticipating the breakout. And
119
00:04:13,333 --> 00:04:14,833
then he's shared a screenshot here showing
120
00:04:14,833 --> 00:04:17,066
how far the trade really went. Over 59
121
00:04:17,066 --> 00:04:19,433
ticks up at the time of that screenshot.
122
00:04:19,733 --> 00:04:21,066
So what I'll say about this trade is a
123
00:04:21,066 --> 00:04:23,166
really solid read on the overall context.
124
00:04:23,166 --> 00:04:25,233
This is exactly how you start to get
125
00:04:25,233 --> 00:04:27,633
higher win rates and stop taking lower
126
00:04:27,633 --> 00:04:29,600
quality trades by developing a story
127
00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,766
around the context of price. Mark reading
128
00:04:32,766 --> 00:04:35,400
the direction of this correctly and
129
00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:37,400
anticipating that breakout by waiting to
130
00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:39,966
see value develop across that level with
131
00:04:39,966 --> 00:04:42,266
his bullish bias in mind and aiming to
132
00:04:42,266 --> 00:04:43,800
take a breakout trade. So I'm overall
133
00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:45,466
really, really happy with this trade set
134
00:04:45,466 --> 00:04:48,200
up. Really well done. Really nice read and
135
00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:50,066
great stop loss placement and a nice
136
00:04:50,066 --> 00:04:53,000
arbitrary target of 20 ticks. All I'll say
137
00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:54,700
is that the entry method can be a bit
138
00:04:54,700 --> 00:04:56,533
risky like this. You guys watching don't
139
00:04:56,533 --> 00:04:57,866
want to just immediately go and employ
140
00:04:57,866 --> 00:04:59,800
this type of entry method. You'd have to
141
00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:02,000
test it. Mark obviously familiar with his
142
00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:03,466
own approach to trading this. But one
143
00:05:03,466 --> 00:05:04,966
thing to be aware of is if you're entering
144
00:05:04,966 --> 00:05:07,300
a trade on a breakout like this, you just
145
00:05:07,300 --> 00:05:08,900
have to be aware that yes, although price
146
00:05:08,900 --> 00:05:11,066
could push above the previous week's value
147
00:05:11,066 --> 00:05:12,733
high and above that high volume node when
148
00:05:12,733 --> 00:05:14,600
Mark got his entry, it could just as
149
00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:16,766
easily just wick that and come back and
150
00:05:16,766 --> 00:05:18,900
forth and still consolidate building that
151
00:05:18,900 --> 00:05:21,066
value before the potential breakout. So
152
00:05:21,066 --> 00:05:22,500
you do have to give a bit of room for that
153
00:05:22,500 --> 00:05:24,633
just to let the trade breathe in case that
154
00:05:24,633 --> 00:05:26,200
breakout doesn't happen the moment your
155
00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:27,800
trade gets triggered. But it's still a
156
00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:29,766
valid approach to getting an entry. Just
157
00:05:29,766 --> 00:05:31,400
be aware of that wherever your entry is
158
00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:33,233
triggered. If you're anticipating a
159
00:05:33,233 --> 00:05:34,900
breakout and you're getting your entry on
160
00:05:34,900 --> 00:05:36,700
where you expect that breakout to occur,
161
00:05:36,900 --> 00:05:38,433
there is a good chance that price could
162
00:05:38,433 --> 00:05:40,433
still pull back and just keep developing.
163
00:05:40,433 --> 00:05:42,166
You never know exactly when that breakout
164
00:05:42,166 --> 00:05:44,266
is going to occur. So just keep that in
165
00:05:44,266 --> 00:05:46,300
mind. And the value in Mark's approach, I
166
00:05:46,300 --> 00:05:48,666
will say though, is that sometimes price
167
00:05:48,666 --> 00:05:50,500
is too strong and does not come back to
168
00:05:50,500 --> 00:05:52,466
retest the area that it broke away from.
169
00:05:52,666 --> 00:05:54,400
You can see if Mark didn't take this
170
00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:56,300
approach of entering the breakout instead
171
00:05:56,300 --> 00:05:58,300
of waiting for the retest, you can see
172
00:05:58,300 --> 00:06:00,366
that price never came to retest that
173
00:06:00,366 --> 00:06:02,466
level. It is a valid approach. It's a more
174
00:06:02,466 --> 00:06:04,633
risky approach, but a very valid approach.
175
00:06:04,633 --> 00:06:06,566
I also take breakout trades like this.
176
00:06:06,666 --> 00:06:08,066
Sometimes you would have seen on stream
177
00:06:08,066 --> 00:06:10,333
last week. I took a very similar trade on
178
00:06:10,333 --> 00:06:12,866
the S&P, anticipating a breakout and not
179
00:06:12,866 --> 00:06:14,366
waiting for the retest, but taking the
180
00:06:14,366 --> 00:06:16,933
breakout trade as price pushed above. So
181
00:06:16,933 --> 00:06:18,666
really, really happy with this trademark.
182
00:06:18,866 --> 00:06:20,633
Really well done. Great read of the market
183
00:06:20,633 --> 00:06:22,666
and nothing to roast on that trade. The
184
00:06:22,666 --> 00:06:26,066
next trade we have here is from Dominic.
185
00:06:26,566 --> 00:06:30,000
And Dominic is trading the NQ here. He's
186
00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:32,300
classified this trade as a B setup. So two
187
00:06:32,300 --> 00:06:33,766
confluences, but we'll take a look at that
188
00:06:33,766 --> 00:06:36,400
in a second. So let's have a look at the
189
00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:38,666
trade. So he's got here a developing
190
00:06:38,666 --> 00:06:41,366
profile. All right, can't quite see the
191
00:06:41,366 --> 00:06:43,466
times on the chart here. Can't quite see
192
00:06:43,466 --> 00:06:45,233
there. If you can, for future reference,
193
00:06:45,333 --> 00:06:46,900
guys, if you can, just make sure the full
194
00:06:46,900 --> 00:06:49,133
image is in picture so I can see the times
195
00:06:49,133 --> 00:06:51,200
and understand what we've got here. But
196
00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:52,833
the profile, you want to stop that
197
00:06:52,833 --> 00:06:55,100
overnight profile right here at the 9.30
198
00:06:55,100 --> 00:06:58,800
open. So I'd say, first of all, nice
199
00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:00,600
trade, but you've got to make sure you
200
00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:02,866
stop that profile at 9.30. It looks like
201
00:07:02,866 --> 00:07:06,000
you've drawn the previous day's overnight
202
00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:08,833
profile. 6 p.m. Sunday, 6 p.m. Through to
203
00:07:08,833 --> 00:07:10,766
the New York Open. Your trade taking place
204
00:07:10,766 --> 00:07:12,966
at around 10 a.m. In the morning on
205
00:07:12,966 --> 00:07:14,500
Monday. That's what I can see. But yeah,
206
00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:15,900
if you guys could make sure the full
207
00:07:15,900 --> 00:07:17,400
picture's in view so I can break it down
208
00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:19,500
properly. What I'm assuming this trade
209
00:07:19,500 --> 00:07:22,000
here is, is that overnight volume profile
210
00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:25,166
from Sunday Open is this, right? And he's
211
00:07:25,166 --> 00:07:27,133
got it extended into the regular trading
212
00:07:27,133 --> 00:07:28,666
hours session. So you want to stop that
213
00:07:28,666 --> 00:07:30,700
profile right here and then put in the
214
00:07:30,700 --> 00:07:32,633
overnight value levels and then trade the
215
00:07:32,633 --> 00:07:34,300
developing regular trading hours profile
216
00:07:34,300 --> 00:07:36,333
moving forward into the regular trading
217
00:07:36,333 --> 00:07:38,233
hours session. But I can say, I can still
218
00:07:38,233 --> 00:07:39,966
break down this trade, right? So overnight
219
00:07:39,966 --> 00:07:41,966
value high was likely still pretty close
220
00:07:41,966 --> 00:07:43,900
to where you took your trade. And that
221
00:07:43,900 --> 00:07:45,866
high volume node there, very recent high
222
00:07:45,866 --> 00:07:47,633
volume node. So still a valid trade setup.
223
00:07:47,766 --> 00:07:50,466
I like how you took the trade off the
224
00:07:50,466 --> 00:07:52,866
failure of this value high and bought back
225
00:07:52,866 --> 00:07:54,266
right at point of control. So that was the
226
00:07:54,266 --> 00:07:57,266
right idea there. You are selling off a
227
00:07:57,266 --> 00:07:59,566
failure point, off a premium price point,
228
00:07:59,566 --> 00:08:01,800
and buying back at point of control, which
229
00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:03,466
is exactly where you want to be exiting.
230
00:08:03,700 --> 00:08:04,900
What I will say is just make sure your
231
00:08:04,900 --> 00:08:07,166
profile is marked up correctly. You want
232
00:08:07,166 --> 00:08:08,766
to, again, be stopping that profile right
233
00:08:08,766 --> 00:08:10,933
there at 930 and then extending those new
234
00:08:10,933 --> 00:08:13,200
overnight value levels at 930 from that
235
00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:15,300
profile. Your entry was pretty good,
236
00:08:15,500 --> 00:08:17,433
right? Price broke back down, back into
237
00:08:17,433 --> 00:08:19,733
value, pulled back up. I can see it's
238
00:08:19,733 --> 00:08:21,166
where you got your sell position as it
239
00:08:21,166 --> 00:08:23,566
pulled back up to retest. And you got a
240
00:08:23,566 --> 00:08:25,666
pretty perfect entry there. It's price
241
00:08:25,666 --> 00:08:28,300
melted down and you got a nice buyback at
242
00:08:28,300 --> 00:08:30,500
point of control. So that's a really good
243
00:08:30,500 --> 00:08:32,466
solid execution. Just make sure your
244
00:08:32,466 --> 00:08:34,133
profile is drawn to the correct levels and
245
00:08:34,133 --> 00:08:35,500
you're putting the correct levels on the
246
00:08:35,500 --> 00:08:37,466
chart. Otherwise, you have the right idea
247
00:08:37,466 --> 00:08:39,766
here. This would be, if the profiles are
248
00:08:39,766 --> 00:08:41,766
drawn up correctly, I would overall rank
249
00:08:41,766 --> 00:08:44,366
this still a C ranked trade. Without
250
00:08:44,366 --> 00:08:45,766
seeing the developing profile or anything
251
00:08:45,766 --> 00:08:47,600
here, you've got one confluence, which is
252
00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:49,733
the overnight value area high sitting
253
00:08:49,733 --> 00:08:51,866
across this point. But nice trade, right
254
00:08:51,866 --> 00:08:53,500
idea. You got a nice outcome from that
255
00:08:53,500 --> 00:08:55,466
trade. Next one here is from Malik. Okay.
256
00:08:55,500 --> 00:08:57,100
And he's taking a buy from the overnight
257
00:08:57,100 --> 00:08:59,166
value high and targeting one to one here.
258
00:08:59,300 --> 00:09:01,100
But you can see price came through and
259
00:09:01,100 --> 00:09:02,400
melted through those levels and hit the
260
00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:03,966
stop loss. So we'll break this one down. I
261
00:09:03,966 --> 00:09:06,933
can see off the bat here for Malik. So you
262
00:09:06,933 --> 00:09:08,766
got your developing profile and your
263
00:09:08,766 --> 00:09:10,100
overnight value levels to give you a
264
00:09:10,100 --> 00:09:11,533
little bit of context. So yes, we are
265
00:09:11,533 --> 00:09:13,800
above overnight value highs. And we had a
266
00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:16,200
pretty even distribution across a range up
267
00:09:16,199 --> 00:09:18,100
here with a point of control above
268
00:09:18,100 --> 00:09:19,966
overnight value high. So initially, that's
269
00:09:19,966 --> 00:09:22,166
bullish. But remember, it's only bullish
270
00:09:22,166 --> 00:09:24,533
if price can hold above point of control.
271
00:09:24,733 --> 00:09:26,666
If price is failing to get above point of
272
00:09:26,666 --> 00:09:28,966
control and continuing to fail to get
273
00:09:28,966 --> 00:09:31,700
above the value high. See here as it
274
00:09:31,699 --> 00:09:33,666
approaches the upper end of value here.
275
00:09:33,966 --> 00:09:36,333
Massive drop off in volume and price
276
00:09:36,333 --> 00:09:38,100
rejects back down and rejects back down.
277
00:09:38,233 --> 00:09:41,000
So multiple breakout attempts, but buyers
278
00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:43,166
were unable to carry this above and kept
279
00:09:43,166 --> 00:09:45,800
failing back below point of control. So
280
00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:47,966
when price came back down here and broke
281
00:09:47,966 --> 00:09:50,300
out of the value area down to overnight
282
00:09:50,300 --> 00:09:52,933
value high, there's very little reason to
283
00:09:52,933 --> 00:09:55,466
long here except for a tiny, tiny bounce.
284
00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:59,200
Even then, it's risky counter trend and
285
00:09:59,199 --> 00:10:01,733
counter context. So other than having the
286
00:10:01,733 --> 00:10:04,066
overnight value high, you've got nothing
287
00:10:04,066 --> 00:10:07,500
really here to signify acceptance or value
288
00:10:07,500 --> 00:10:09,900
at this value level here. See, there's no
289
00:10:09,900 --> 00:10:11,566
distinctive high volume node that
290
00:10:11,566 --> 00:10:13,500
developed across that price point. So you
291
00:10:13,500 --> 00:10:15,066
don't have that. The only confluence
292
00:10:15,066 --> 00:10:16,366
you've got in this trade is overnight
293
00:10:16,366 --> 00:10:18,300
value high that was being traded above.
294
00:10:18,533 --> 00:10:20,566
But with the context of having point of
295
00:10:20,566 --> 00:10:23,000
control fail, developing above that level
296
00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:25,666
and then failing and price failing to get
297
00:10:25,666 --> 00:10:27,700
above the even distribution here and
298
00:10:27,699 --> 00:10:29,833
failing to hold above point of control and
299
00:10:29,833 --> 00:10:31,800
having a pretty strong meltdown from point
300
00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:33,366
of control, breaking out of that even
301
00:10:33,366 --> 00:10:35,466
distribution range back down towards
302
00:10:35,466 --> 00:10:37,266
overnight value. Probably a trade you want
303
00:10:37,266 --> 00:10:39,533
to avoid taking. So overall, Malik, I see
304
00:10:39,533 --> 00:10:42,166
this is a C-rank trade and without the
305
00:10:42,166 --> 00:10:45,033
read on the context, making it a lower
306
00:10:45,033 --> 00:10:47,066
likelihood, a lower probability trade.
307
00:10:47,266 --> 00:10:48,266
Yeah, make sure you're getting that
308
00:10:48,266 --> 00:10:49,633
context, that surrounding context.
309
00:10:49,766 --> 00:10:51,400
Remember the developing point of control,
310
00:10:51,566 --> 00:10:53,666
developing fair value. Basically, the
311
00:10:53,666 --> 00:10:55,800
compass on what type of trades or what
312
00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:57,200
directional trades you should be looking
313
00:10:57,199 --> 00:10:59,466
at for your session. So seeing that point
314
00:10:59,466 --> 00:11:02,000
of control initially develop high, but
315
00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:03,900
then failing to get higher and then price
316
00:11:03,900 --> 00:11:05,966
failing to hold above point of control is
317
00:11:05,966 --> 00:11:08,066
a sign to look at breaks back into value
318
00:11:08,066 --> 00:11:10,666
versus looking for continuations to the
319
00:11:10,666 --> 00:11:12,800
upside or even bounces to the upside.
320
00:11:12,900 --> 00:11:14,666
You're better off trade on trend and look
321
00:11:14,666 --> 00:11:17,033
for those moves back into previous value.
322
00:11:17,199 --> 00:11:19,200
The next trade here is from Anim. He took
323
00:11:19,199 --> 00:11:21,333
two trades on the ES. So let's have a look
324
00:11:21,333 --> 00:11:23,300
at the trade. So the first one here, this
325
00:11:23,300 --> 00:11:25,633
is a D-shaped trade. He's got an even
326
00:11:25,633 --> 00:11:27,633
distribution profile. Okay, this is
327
00:11:27,633 --> 00:11:29,866
actually looks like the profile just
328
00:11:29,866 --> 00:11:31,866
before Malik's trade, which is down here.
329
00:11:32,300 --> 00:11:34,500
So same day, same session, different trade
330
00:11:34,500 --> 00:11:37,600
setup. So what Anim's read here is you see
331
00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:39,533
price traded above developed that even
332
00:11:39,533 --> 00:11:40,966
distribution we talked about just
333
00:11:40,966 --> 00:11:42,866
previously. Massive drop off in value to
334
00:11:42,866 --> 00:11:44,966
the upper end and not so much on the lower
335
00:11:44,966 --> 00:11:47,533
end, but to the upper end, total drop off
336
00:11:47,533 --> 00:11:49,266
of value and you've got your developing
337
00:11:49,266 --> 00:11:51,966
value high right here. So Anim's taking
338
00:11:51,966 --> 00:11:54,466
his trade, fading the value area high.
339
00:11:54,666 --> 00:11:56,600
Okay, you can see the failed breakouts
340
00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:58,633
multiple times and that volume
341
00:11:58,633 --> 00:12:00,633
distributing evenly across the midpoint of
342
00:12:00,633 --> 00:12:02,933
the range. So he's faded the value high
343
00:12:02,933 --> 00:12:06,500
back down into value. Now, this is a good
344
00:12:06,500 --> 00:12:09,100
D-shaped setup, really good read on the
345
00:12:09,100 --> 00:12:11,200
profile being D-shaped and fading the
346
00:12:11,199 --> 00:12:13,866
extremes as the best play. The only point
347
00:12:13,866 --> 00:12:16,200
of criticism here is a little bit risky
348
00:12:16,199 --> 00:12:17,933
with point of control being right here and
349
00:12:17,933 --> 00:12:19,933
your take profit being through past point
350
00:12:19,933 --> 00:12:22,166
of control. Obviously, it worked out. But
351
00:12:22,166 --> 00:12:23,700
when you're taking D-shaped profile
352
00:12:23,699 --> 00:12:26,666
trades, you want to be extra careful when
353
00:12:26,666 --> 00:12:28,433
trying to trade through the midpoint of
354
00:12:28,433 --> 00:12:30,866
the even distribution because as price
355
00:12:30,866 --> 00:12:33,566
gets back towards that fair value point,
356
00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:35,700
that's where you're having more likelihood
357
00:12:35,699 --> 00:12:38,133
of a potential pushback and that's more
358
00:12:38,133 --> 00:12:39,300
often than not where your breakout
359
00:12:39,300 --> 00:12:40,566
happens. So if you're wrong on the
360
00:12:40,566 --> 00:12:42,300
direction here and price actually held
361
00:12:42,300 --> 00:12:43,500
point of control and ended up going
362
00:12:43,500 --> 00:12:45,466
upwards, that could have been a real quick
363
00:12:45,466 --> 00:12:47,466
stop out. So that's my only piece of
364
00:12:47,466 --> 00:12:49,466
criticism here is good read on the D
365
00:12:49,466 --> 00:12:51,633
-shaped profile. Just be careful when
366
00:12:51,633 --> 00:12:53,700
holding take profit targets past the point
367
00:12:53,699 --> 00:12:56,133
of control of a D-shaped. So sometimes D
368
00:12:56,133 --> 00:12:58,266
-shaped trades aren't worthwhile if the
369
00:12:58,266 --> 00:13:00,566
point of control is really close to your
370
00:13:00,566 --> 00:13:01,966
entry point. You're only grabbing, you
371
00:13:01,966 --> 00:13:04,366
know, one point, one, two points. You
372
00:13:04,366 --> 00:13:06,166
might want to look to take a trade where
373
00:13:06,166 --> 00:13:08,666
the point of control of the D-shaped is a
374
00:13:08,666 --> 00:13:10,400
bit further away so you can more
375
00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:12,466
comfortably secure in a higher probability
376
00:13:12,466 --> 00:13:14,533
trade that way. Regardless, this trade did
377
00:13:14,533 --> 00:13:16,266
work out. So good job on that. Great job
378
00:13:16,266 --> 00:13:18,000
on the D-shaped read. Just something to
379
00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:19,766
keep in mind for the future is be mindful
380
00:13:19,766 --> 00:13:22,400
of holding. Trades through POC. That can
381
00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:24,766
be a dangerous business to be in. Second
382
00:13:24,766 --> 00:13:26,200
trade you took here was down at overnight
383
00:13:26,199 --> 00:13:27,766
value low in previous week's point of
384
00:13:27,766 --> 00:13:29,766
control and your developing profile right
385
00:13:29,766 --> 00:13:32,666
across here. So overall, good trade. You
386
00:13:32,666 --> 00:13:34,333
don't have much in terms of confluence on
387
00:13:34,333 --> 00:13:36,800
the developing profile. In terms of
388
00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,200
context, yes, price did break down through
389
00:13:39,199 --> 00:13:41,566
the overnight fair value point, but it
390
00:13:41,566 --> 00:13:43,266
came back down to a discount point,
391
00:13:43,466 --> 00:13:45,600
overnight value low in previous week's
392
00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:48,466
fair value. So if the fair value point of
393
00:13:48,466 --> 00:13:50,466
the previous week is in line with the
394
00:13:50,466 --> 00:13:52,900
overnight value low discount zone, and
395
00:13:52,900 --> 00:13:54,666
that's a really good area to buy even
396
00:13:54,666 --> 00:13:56,600
without confirmation of the developing
397
00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:58,566
profile. And you can see he got in here.
398
00:13:58,833 --> 00:14:00,900
This is his outline trade. Getting in
399
00:14:00,900 --> 00:14:03,000
after price dipped into that point and
400
00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:05,600
pushed back up, and he's entered here on
401
00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:07,433
the pushback through previous week's point
402
00:14:07,433 --> 00:14:09,600
of control, targeting a one-to-one target.
403
00:14:09,733 --> 00:14:11,600
So really good trade. B-ranked trade. Two
404
00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,000
confluences. And nice and simple. Happy
405
00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:16,300
with that trade. Stop-loss placement. Stop
406
00:14:16,300 --> 00:14:18,333
-loss placement is good. Being below the
407
00:14:18,333 --> 00:14:20,566
low of that first push through that price
408
00:14:20,566 --> 00:14:22,400
point. I'm not mad at that. And very good
409
00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:25,266
trade selection. Nice, simple B-ranked
410
00:14:25,266 --> 00:14:27,366
trade. Next trade from Andrew here. Just a
411
00:14:27,366 --> 00:14:28,933
small scout by the looks of things. He's
412
00:14:28,933 --> 00:14:31,466
taken, what's that, two points? And your
413
00:14:31,466 --> 00:14:33,000
question being, you weren't comfortable
414
00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:34,566
with the trade. Oh, you felt comfortable
415
00:14:34,566 --> 00:14:36,166
with the trade knowing there were two
416
00:14:36,166 --> 00:14:38,100
levels of support, but wasn't sure where
417
00:14:38,100 --> 00:14:39,166
the entry should have been in this
418
00:14:39,166 --> 00:14:41,533
context. If in doubt, Andrew, if you've
419
00:14:41,533 --> 00:14:44,100
got two nodes like this developing, try
420
00:14:44,100 --> 00:14:45,766
not to chase it taking the higher one.
421
00:14:45,866 --> 00:14:47,700
Take the one that's further down to give
422
00:14:47,699 --> 00:14:49,200
you more likelihood of a better trade.
423
00:14:49,366 --> 00:14:51,400
Sure, you might miss a trade, but you're
424
00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:53,133
better off getting the more favorable
425
00:14:53,133 --> 00:14:55,500
position than chasing a trade up in this
426
00:14:55,500 --> 00:14:57,100
type of situation. So I would have been
427
00:14:57,100 --> 00:14:59,500
waiting for price to pull back towards at
428
00:14:59,500 --> 00:15:01,900
least the value level with that high
429
00:15:01,900 --> 00:15:03,666
volume node sitting right behind it. So I
430
00:15:03,666 --> 00:15:05,366
think your entry was good there, entering
431
00:15:05,366 --> 00:15:07,433
closer to the previous week's value level
432
00:15:07,433 --> 00:15:08,933
with the high volume node behind as
433
00:15:08,933 --> 00:15:11,666
support. Next one here from Dante. Says
434
00:15:11,666 --> 00:15:15,166
two losses for him. Two A setups. Okay, so
435
00:15:15,166 --> 00:15:17,433
let's have a look. So your first one
436
00:15:17,433 --> 00:15:19,000
you've outlined here, that one obviously
437
00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:21,233
was a hit. I think that must be the trade
438
00:15:21,233 --> 00:15:23,600
you said that you missed your fill by one
439
00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:26,000
tick. Good setup. You know, you got your
440
00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:27,933
buy off the previous day value high in
441
00:15:27,933 --> 00:15:30,433
PDPOC. So a couple of stack levels. And
442
00:15:30,433 --> 00:15:31,700
not sure what the volume profile would
443
00:15:31,699 --> 00:15:33,633
have looked like at the time. But if it
444
00:15:33,633 --> 00:15:35,500
was similar to this, you got your kind of
445
00:15:35,500 --> 00:15:37,200
even distribution and you're entering at
446
00:15:37,199 --> 00:15:39,400
the edges. So not mad at that. And second
447
00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:41,466
time around, you said this one did not
448
00:15:41,466 --> 00:15:43,133
work and got stopped out. Entering at the
449
00:15:43,133 --> 00:15:47,066
same area and you got to stop out. So what
450
00:15:47,066 --> 00:15:49,000
I will say is your entry is pretty good.
451
00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:51,366
Your entry is close to the edge of that
452
00:15:51,366 --> 00:15:54,566
even distribution profile and across two
453
00:15:54,566 --> 00:15:56,566
value levels. So you got a few stack
454
00:15:56,566 --> 00:15:58,800
levels and the developing profile. So yes,
455
00:15:59,266 --> 00:16:01,400
definitely an A trade setup. So I've got
456
00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:03,133
no feet, no criticism for this. You did
457
00:16:03,133 --> 00:16:05,300
choose a good trade setup and getting
458
00:16:05,300 --> 00:16:07,366
stopped out is just unfortunate. As you
459
00:16:07,366 --> 00:16:10,166
know, nothing's going to be 100%. And, you
460
00:16:10,166 --> 00:16:11,100
know, I wouldn't say you did anything
461
00:16:11,100 --> 00:16:13,466
wrong here. It's just part of the random
462
00:16:13,466 --> 00:16:15,266
chaos of trading and the random
463
00:16:15,266 --> 00:16:17,166
distribution of wins and losses. Good
464
00:16:17,166 --> 00:16:19,366
trade selection. Good setup. Just
465
00:16:19,366 --> 00:16:21,566
unfortunate on that. Your second one here,
466
00:16:21,699 --> 00:16:23,466
you're looking at the break away from
467
00:16:23,466 --> 00:16:25,466
value and away from those value levels and
468
00:16:25,466 --> 00:16:27,666
looking for the retest on the other side
469
00:16:27,666 --> 00:16:30,100
to continue short. And you said this one
470
00:16:30,100 --> 00:16:32,133
also got stopped out. You're taking the
471
00:16:32,133 --> 00:16:33,633
same thing on the other side. Two stacked
472
00:16:33,633 --> 00:16:35,766
value levels. Price moved away from value
473
00:16:35,766 --> 00:16:39,066
below POC. And you've also got the value
474
00:16:39,066 --> 00:16:42,166
area lower developing across here to give
475
00:16:42,166 --> 00:16:43,966
extra confluence. So again, A ranked on
476
00:16:43,966 --> 00:16:45,833
the other side. And you're saying you got
477
00:16:45,833 --> 00:16:47,500
stopped out there as well. I'd be
478
00:16:47,500 --> 00:16:49,500
interested to see if Price ended up
479
00:16:49,500 --> 00:16:51,000
pulling right up to point of control and
480
00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:52,766
coming back down or what happened with
481
00:16:52,766 --> 00:16:54,533
this. But other than that, man, you've
482
00:16:54,533 --> 00:16:57,566
selected good trades, good confluences and
483
00:16:57,566 --> 00:17:00,566
a good read on what, you know, your ideal
484
00:17:00,566 --> 00:17:02,166
trade should be in this particular
485
00:17:02,166 --> 00:17:04,433
session. And if they're just if they're
486
00:17:04,433 --> 00:17:06,633
losses, you know, you get stopped out. I
487
00:17:06,633 --> 00:17:08,300
wouldn't be upset at these trades. You'd
488
00:17:08,300 --> 00:17:11,666
make good selection and good read on
489
00:17:11,666 --> 00:17:13,966
context here. Just can't win them all. So
490
00:17:13,966 --> 00:17:16,599
I have no criticism on this. Nothing wrong
491
00:17:16,599 --> 00:17:18,633
with these trades at all, Dante. I am very
492
00:17:18,633 --> 00:17:20,599
happy with that selection and also trades
493
00:17:20,599 --> 00:17:23,200
I likely would have taken. More so this
494
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:24,566
breakaway is one that I would have looked
495
00:17:24,566 --> 00:17:27,200
to take being as it faded away from value
496
00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:29,266
and came back to retest those stacked
497
00:17:29,266 --> 00:17:30,700
levels. That would be a trade I would
498
00:17:30,700 --> 00:17:32,800
certainly take. And if that stopped out,
499
00:17:32,899 --> 00:17:34,966
that's just is what it is. So no feedback
500
00:17:34,966 --> 00:17:37,033
on that other than good selection, random
501
00:17:37,033 --> 00:17:38,766
distribution of wins and losses. Next
502
00:17:38,766 --> 00:17:40,600
one's from Graham. Graham getting the one
503
00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:42,400
tick tickle on his runner contract. But
504
00:17:42,399 --> 00:17:44,033
overall, a good trade. Let's have a look.
505
00:17:44,633 --> 00:17:47,933
He's grading it as a B rank trade. So your
506
00:17:47,933 --> 00:17:51,500
trade being here. Let's see. You got a buy
507
00:17:51,500 --> 00:17:55,400
order breaking back into value after
508
00:17:55,399 --> 00:17:57,900
pulling off this. Okay, cool. Cool. So I
509
00:17:57,899 --> 00:17:59,800
can see you got the reaction from the
510
00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:02,000
previous week's value high. You can see
511
00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:03,566
you waited on that. Price got a nice
512
00:18:03,566 --> 00:18:06,233
strong reaction back towards value and
513
00:18:06,233 --> 00:18:08,200
back above a high volume node in the
514
00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:10,800
developing profile. That's good. So you've
515
00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:12,700
got your buy position. Price found support
516
00:18:12,700 --> 00:18:14,400
of that high volume node and pushed up.
517
00:18:14,533 --> 00:18:17,066
And I take you just targeted an arbitrary
518
00:18:17,066 --> 00:18:19,733
one-to-one-ish there as well. So pretty
519
00:18:19,733 --> 00:18:23,033
good trade selection. I like how you took
520
00:18:23,033 --> 00:18:24,866
into context that strong reaction from the
521
00:18:24,866 --> 00:18:27,400
previous week's value high first and then
522
00:18:27,399 --> 00:18:30,000
seeing price break back above previous day
523
00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:32,466
value low. So showing price moving back
524
00:18:32,466 --> 00:18:35,100
into previous day's value and reacting to
525
00:18:35,100 --> 00:18:37,466
a key weekly support level. So that's
526
00:18:37,466 --> 00:18:40,200
cool. I would have personally, instead of
527
00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:41,733
buying what you did, I probably would have
528
00:18:41,733 --> 00:18:44,366
waited for that to pull back and test that
529
00:18:44,366 --> 00:18:46,400
edge, that shelf of the developing node
530
00:18:46,399 --> 00:18:47,933
there. So that's the first bit of
531
00:18:47,933 --> 00:18:49,766
feedback. That developing node edge was
532
00:18:49,766 --> 00:18:51,833
developed almost right across the previous
533
00:18:51,833 --> 00:18:54,066
day's value low. So that's a perfect kind
534
00:18:54,066 --> 00:18:55,833
of pullback area to get your entry. So
535
00:18:55,833 --> 00:18:58,400
that's my only real piece of criticism to
536
00:18:58,399 --> 00:19:00,433
this trade. Your take profit targeting
537
00:19:00,433 --> 00:19:02,233
looks like it's an arbitrary one-to-one.
538
00:19:02,366 --> 00:19:05,166
Not so bad. Only thing is you've got a
539
00:19:05,166 --> 00:19:07,733
couple of pieces of resistance here, a
540
00:19:07,733 --> 00:19:10,166
couple of high volume nodes back-to-back
541
00:19:10,166 --> 00:19:11,700
right here. So you could potentially run
542
00:19:11,700 --> 00:19:13,100
into trouble with that high volume node,
543
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:14,766
another high volume node being right above
544
00:19:14,766 --> 00:19:17,366
your take profit target. But overall, good
545
00:19:17,366 --> 00:19:18,933
read. Just, yeah, I would be getting a
546
00:19:18,933 --> 00:19:20,400
slightly better entry than where you
547
00:19:20,399 --> 00:19:23,800
entered on this particular trade. Yeah, I
548
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,066
can't quite see it price pulling back when
549
00:19:26,066 --> 00:19:27,766
you entered. So I would have waited for
550
00:19:27,766 --> 00:19:29,400
that pullback, which happened just about a
551
00:19:29,399 --> 00:19:31,766
minute or so after your entry. Pullback to
552
00:19:31,766 --> 00:19:34,400
that previous day value low reinforced by
553
00:19:34,399 --> 00:19:35,800
that high volume node. It broke back
554
00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:38,400
above. So nice solid B-ranked trade there
555
00:19:38,399 --> 00:19:40,933
and good read, good trade selection. Not
556
00:19:40,933 --> 00:19:43,166
mad at it. And last one from Tom. So
557
00:19:43,166 --> 00:19:44,400
you've got previous week's value low,
558
00:19:44,566 --> 00:19:46,100
previous day value low, and developing
559
00:19:46,100 --> 00:19:48,666
value low. So three confluences here. And
560
00:19:48,666 --> 00:19:51,266
I will say this is a really clean, really
561
00:19:51,266 --> 00:19:53,800
solid setup. Really well done, Tom. This
562
00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:56,600
is probably as good, as perfect a trade
563
00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:58,366
selection as you can get. So you've got
564
00:19:58,366 --> 00:20:00,266
both previous day, previous week's value
565
00:20:00,266 --> 00:20:01,966
area low stacked right across. Makes
566
00:20:01,966 --> 00:20:03,866
things nice and easy. And then the
567
00:20:03,866 --> 00:20:05,900
developing profile value low right across
568
00:20:05,899 --> 00:20:07,900
there as well, obviously. So no volume
569
00:20:07,899 --> 00:20:10,166
below that. So Tom's got his trade right
570
00:20:10,166 --> 00:20:12,433
on the edge, right on those value lows.
571
00:20:12,666 --> 00:20:14,366
Stacked right together. Makes it nice and
572
00:20:14,366 --> 00:20:16,500
easy. And he's exited at the developing
573
00:20:16,500 --> 00:20:18,700
point of control. So that's as perfect as
574
00:20:18,700 --> 00:20:21,600
you can get for entry, exit, and trade
575
00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:23,366
selection. So really well done, Tom.
576
00:20:23,366 --> 00:20:26,666
That's a great read. And I have nothing,
577
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:28,300
no feedback to give on this. This is a
578
00:20:28,300 --> 00:20:30,800
perfect trade. Playbook worthy trade. So
579
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:32,300
well done on that. So I hope you guys
580
00:20:32,300 --> 00:20:33,900
found that episode helpful. We'll do this
581
00:20:33,899 --> 00:20:36,100
every single week. Do them at the end of
582
00:20:36,100 --> 00:20:38,333
every week. And submit your trades just in
583
00:20:38,333 --> 00:20:40,800
the comments of these hot seat posts. And
584
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:42,866
I'll break them down every week. Again, at
585
00:20:42,866 --> 00:20:44,366
this point, we can get through all of the
586
00:20:44,366 --> 00:20:46,000
submitted trades. But as the group grows,
587
00:20:46,133 --> 00:20:48,233
maybe we'll have to just select a few that
588
00:20:48,233 --> 00:20:50,433
are, I believe, will have the most value
589
00:20:50,433 --> 00:20:53,766
in them for teaching purposes, etc. But
590
00:20:53,766 --> 00:20:55,433
other than that, submit them through. I'm
591
00:20:55,433 --> 00:20:57,700
going to stick you the next post now. Add
592
00:20:57,700 --> 00:20:59,400
your trades. It can be wins or losses.
593
00:20:59,500 --> 00:21:01,333
Just anything you want direct feedback on.
594
00:21:01,433 --> 00:21:02,866
Add them to this post. And we'll break
595
00:21:02,866 --> 00:21:04,200
them down in next week's episode. Bye.
44716
Can't find what you're looking for?
Get subtitles in any language from opensubtitles.com, and translate them here.