All language subtitles for What is the future of working from home - The Global Story podcast, BBC World Service [English] [DownloadYoutubeSubtitles.com]

Hi there. I'm Caitríona Perry,
and this is The Global Story.

At the height
of the Covid 19 pandemic

the working world went
through a revolution.

Workers, particularly
white collar office workers,

were ordered to work from home
to stop the spread of the virus,

and it seemed
like a permanent change.

Hybrid working
has remained incredibly popular

years after
the Covid lockdowns were lifted.

But now more and more companies
are ordering employees back to work.

And many employers have slammed working
from home as inefficient and bad

for the bottom line.

So is the work
from home revolution over now?

Joining me from London is the BBC's
employment correspondent, Zoe Conway.

Hello. And also with me,

Nick Bloom, an economist
at Stanford University in the US,

who has studied the effect that all
of this is having on productivity.

Hey there.
Great to have you both with us today.

Now, before we go any further, I just
want to establish the status here.

Are you working from home
or in the office?

Nick. You first.

I'm actually at home.

Although I have to say,

for me, it's 8:00 in the morning,
so I am going in later.

But right now, yes,
this is the spare bedroom.

But ordinarily you're in the office
full time?

When I teach. So I teach obviously
students because I'm at Stanford.

That's definitely in person.

Big meetings is in person,

but I do spend a couple
of days a week on zoom

taking calls, working from home.

And what about you, Zoe?

I'm definitely at the BBC today.

I like coming into the office.

Actually, I work with a team
of incredibly clever, interesting,

and funny people, and
I like the camaraderie of the office.

But I travel around the UK
for work quite a lot as well,

so I don't really work from home.

Okay, so we've established where you
both stand on the working from home.

I obviously am not working from home.

Can't be a presenter and work
from home unfortunately,

although I did suggest it from time
to time during the pandemic.

But before the pandemic
I was working here in the US

and I mean, it was really very rare
in this country

that you would have encountered
anyone really working from home.

Nick, are there certain countries
or certain industries

that have always had this tradition
of remote working or working from home?

Yeah, so tech has always been
pretty work from home friendly.

So you can think of if
you're on a keyboard using computers,

you often don't need to be
in the office.

You know, it's also
actually interesting

that a lot of English speaking
countries, it's not clear why,

but you're right.
Northern Europe,

Canada, UK, Australia,
New Zealand have been pretty high.

We tend to see
the lowest levels in Asia.

So there are
big international differences.

So Asia you know typically back
in the office pretty much full time,

but northern Europe, US,
we still see tech, some finance

working from home
two or three days a week.

But of course, everything changed
for everyone, didn't it?

In the spring of 2020,

with the arrival of this thing
we'd never heard of before. Covid 19

and the pandemic and how
that changed everything at that time.

Governments rushing to announce stay
at home orders, lockdowns to try

and keep everyone away from each
other and limit the number of infections.

It was a crucial step,
we were told at the time,

to keep the hospitals from getting
overloaded and to get everyone safe,

and suddenly employers had to adapt
to a situation

where their employees could not come
into work.

So tell us a little bit
about that transition.

Who was working from home
and who wasn't,

and what did it all mean for people?

It was the most incredible adjustment
for so many of us.

There were all these forms
of technology we'd never used before,

whether it's zoom calls or team chats

that some of us are still
fairly useless at using.

certainly in my unit,

Everyone still mutes themselves.

Everyone seems to be on mute.

So it was an incredible adjustment.

And I think what we're seeing
in many cases in the UK

are people who have learnt that
they can be very productive at home

and that they can juggle it
very successfully with, you know,

perhaps raising a young family or
looking after elderly relatives.

And so there's a lot more flexibility
that we're seeing.

But I think there's still a huge
amount of uncertainty here in the UK

about whether we're going
to see a big switch back.

Because as well as having more time
with your family and your children.

I mean, there are other benefits for
people from working from home as well.

Financially commuting time.

Tell us a bit about those.

We went to Bank underground station.

Now that is right
in the heart of the city in London.

It's the sort of place where
you're going to see a lot of people

very smartly dressed,

walking incredibly fast to get to their
law firm or their bank where they work.

And we went on a Thursday morning
and we went again on a Friday morning

during rush hour.

And there was a big drop in numbers.

And the data shows that now
on a Friday, if you go

to Bank underground station, you'll
see that the commuters are roughly

at just just over half
what they were before the pandemic.

So a big drop.

Nick, on that point,
I mean, individuals might save

because they can make
their lunch at home.

They're not spending on fuel for
their cars, train tickets and so on.

But what's been the economic impact
on businesses

from this situation
where people are working from home?

Well, there's two ways to look at it.

Mostly for businesses hybrid,
which is when you come in,

say two or three days a week and work
from home two or three days a week,

it's actually pretty profitable,
and it's why it's stuck.

It's why
if you look at the Fortune 500.

So these are the largest
500 companies in the world.

80% of them are on hybrid
because it makes them a lot of money.

And why is that?

Well, if you look at the research,

if you work
from home a couple of days a week,

it doesn't really seem
to damage productivity.

So, yes you need to be in
for mentoring, for connectivity,

for building culture, for innovating.

But by the time you're coming
in three days a week,

it looks like
you kind of have your fill.

And the other two days are good
for quiet time

and for recharging without a commute.

So productivity is not affected.

What businesses gain is turnovers
a lot lower.

So in one study we published actually
last year in Nature,

you see quit rates fall
by about a third.

And you know you can see
why like folks are like

'I really like working
from home a couple of days a week.

I'm less likely to change jobs.'

And for businesses, that saves them
an enormous amount of money

because every person that quits,
you've got to go out.

You've got to re-interview, rehire.

And has that passion been replicated
across the world?

This moved from a full time working
from home to that hybrid model

you're talking about.

If you look at Southern Europe
and Asia, take Tokyo.

There's very little working
from home going on.

So Tokyo is kind of unchanged.

It's a weird world,
you know, in 2019,

these cities look similar.

Suddenly, five years later,
you know, six years later,

we've now seen a surge of work from
home in much of Europe and the US,

and pretty much everyone's return
to the office in Asia.

And so what has that meant for
how people might move between jobs

if you
can potentially be working from home

for a company that is no longer based
in your town or in a nearby city,

as may have been the case
in the past

when you sought employment adjacent
to where you live.

I think there has been a shift
in terms of the balance of power that

when you apply for a job, it has become
the norm to ask for flexible working,

or certainly more normalized
and to expect it.

Zoe is exactly right.

It's funny talking to recruiters.

They said, look, pre-pandemic,
if you're recruiting folks,

you tell them about the salary
and obviously the role,

but they're always going to ask
about the perks.

And, you know, there's the big two,
which is pension

and is there any kind
of health care plan. Now they said,

look, it's the big three. Pension,
health care plan and work from home.

And so yes, it's become
a critical part of recruitment.

Then normal numbers that I hear from
recruiters I see in research is 8%.

So folks say look,
if I can be hybrid,

you know, I'll accept
basically 8% less pay to be hybrid

versus come in the office
five days a week.

So you can twist it around and say,

if you're a boss and you want
your folks in five days a week,

you have
to pay people basically 8% more.

So what are the major negatives
that have been reported to you

from employers?

We went and interviewed the CEO
of a record label in East London,

and he set up this company himself.

It's his baby,
and he has a lot of young staff.

And it's interesting
because he's been allowing

his young workers to be at home
coming in for two days a week,

and he's now asked them to come
back in for three days a week.

I can't help
but have this nagging feeling

that sort of continual remote working
has affected our bottom line.

It's his business,
and he feels

that it's the kind of industry
where people can and should be

networking, should be
part of this team.

Not just in spirit,
but but physically together

sharing ideas.

And I think he also wonders about
what effect it's having on

the mental health of his young workforce
to be at home too much of the time.

You know, I firmly believe
that the music industry is all

about relationships.

And so the one single way to really,
for any of us to be able

to build those kind of meaningful
relationships is to do it in person.

Perhaps for him, it's a bit
of a slight sense of loss of control

that he just doesn't quite know
what everybody's up to.

Which I think he might feel is
a bit of a disadvantage.

And he found it difficult
to just be communicating via,

you know, video conferencing.

So I think there are some disadvantages
that he would say.

Do those arguments extend out to the point
where the whole economy would benefit

from everyone being back at work,
what did you find?

For an in-depth bit
of reporting for the BBC

that I've been doing in recent weeks,
we spoke to Lord Stuart Rose,

and he used to run two
of the biggest retailers in the UK,

supermarkets called Marks
and Spencers and Asda,

and he came out very strongly
in favour of people coming in

for most of the time.

People who drive trains
have to go to work.

People who work in operating theatres
have to go to work.

People who work in

service industries like retail
have to go to work and others don't.

Well, you know, what's different?

They have children,
they have problems.

They have issues.
You deal with it.

And what he said to us was
that he just thinks it's really bad

for productivity in the UK.

It's really bad
for economic growth in the UK

if people are spending
too much time working from home.

Do you want to jump in there
with your stats and research?

There's a number
of folks who can only work

if they're allowed to work from home.

So we see in the data that employment
of folks with a disability,

people looking after young kids,

folks close to retirement,
has been surging post-pandemic.

And this is, you know,

hundreds of thousands of millions
of people literally, who can work.

And if they're working,
they're paying taxes, providing goods

and services for the rest of us.

And that's a win win.

So actually,
I think these are typically,

you know, kind of older
in their career CEOs, typically men,

if you look in the data who are very
against work from home,

you know, they're judging
on their experience.

That might have been
right 20 or 30 years ago,

but in 2025,
it's actually good for the economy.

And that's interesting that there are
certain jobs that can only be done
in the workplace,

but there are certain people
who can only work if they're at home.

And it's sort of setting up a bit
of a divide between workers.

I mean, just to to broaden it out
a little bit.

We heard Elon Musk,
of course, aide to President Trump

and billionaire businessman tell CNBC
recently that not only did he think

working from home made
people less productive.

He also thought it was a symbol of
class division between white collar

and blue collar workers
to use those terms.

Nick, what do you make
of that argument?

Well, you know,
Musk's views are really problematic.

So I'll give you an example.

There's someone I was speaking
to last week who

a couple of years ago,
broke their neck in an accident.

And so he used to be, you know,
pretty senior exec.

Poor guy is now basically disabled
from the neck down.

And he said, look,
if I've got to go into work,

it takes me about three hours
and I was like three hours?

He said, yeah,
my carer has to get me up,

wash me, get me dressed,
take me to the car.

And then my dad
would normally drive me into work.

He said if I can work from home,
it's about 20 minutes.

Now, this is someone
that's highly productive.

If you force someone like that
to come into work every day,

he said, to be honest,
I'd probably stop working.

And so the Musk view
of trying to turn it into a crusade

to force everyone back to the office
is going to lose folks like that.

People with young kids,

folks close to retirement
and is a loss to all of us.

You know, if there are
more people working and paying taxes,

it's less taxes
for the rest of us to pay.

Nick, why do you think this has become
such a politically charged issue?

I mean, it's almost
a cultural issue here in the US.

And obviously, as we've been talking
about, it's a huge issue in the UK

at the moment now as well.

Politics comes
into everything eventually.

Unfortunately, and politics has come
into work from home.

It's pretty natural in a sense,

because if you look at who can
and who can't work from home.

So think about who can work
from home.

They tend to be
university educated folks.

They tend to be
professionals, managers.

They're higher earners.

You know, they tend to have
a certain type of politics.

And at the other end,
who can't work from home tend to be

they're more likely to be
frontline service workers.

Maybe they left school at 16 or 17.

They're lower earning. Certainly in the US.

that group tends to vote for Trump.

And as a result,
if you're Trump or Musk,

your vote base is people
that can't work from home.

And it's appealing to then ban work from
home because it appeals to the base.

You know, if you can kind of poke
in the eye

the other half of the population,
it's a win for your base.

So you tend to see populist parties
that tend to appeal to

lower income, more kind of frontline
service workers, frontline workers.

They tend to be
against work from home.

And if you look at parties that tend
to have more university educated
people that have office jobs,

they tend to be more supportive
of work from home.

And, you know, sadly, that's nothing
about whether it's good or bad.

It really just predicts who votes
for these

politicians and politicians
know who their voters are

and they appeal to them.

And I suppose
the other side of things,

though really is that some
countries are actually taking steps

to make remote working part of
workers' rights or workers' entitlements.

Spain has guaranteed the right
to flexible arrangements.

Last year, Ireland made a legal right
to request to work remotely,

and the UK government is
including the right to work from home

in an upcoming bill.

So there are places

where working from home, the right,
is being protected, aren't there?

That's right.
In the UK,

the Employment Rights Bill is going
through Parliament right now.

It's due to become law in June.

But the critical question is
how this is going to be implemented,

because there's something that's
going to have to be worked out,

a code of practice
over the next year or so.

And that means there's going to be
yet more consultation.

And there is concern by campaigners
who want to see more flexibility,

that business is going
to lobby government hard

and reduce the amount of working from
home that's made possible by employers.

So I think
it's really still up for

grabs and the government at the moment
is desperate to prove to

business that its number one
priority is economic growth.

So I think it's a bit unclear
at the moment exactly how

this legislation is going to be
implemented, how it's going to work,

and whether it is actually going
to increase flexibility at work,

whether it's really going to lead
to an increase in the number

of people working from home.

Okay, so final question.

After all that
we have been discussing here,

what do you both think
the future of work will look like?

Will hybrid work be as popular
ten years, even five years from now

as it is as we're talking today?

Nick, what's your
final thought on this?

So working from home
is going to follow a Nike swoosh.

So you know it dropped from 2021 - 2022.

It fell pretty clearly.

It's now in the flat bit.
We can see in the data.

It's not really changed for the last
year and a half. Long run, it's up.

So you know 2030 work from home
is going to be higher than it is now.

Why is that?

Three drivers.

One is companies have
office leases

and they last typically 10,
15 years as they expire.

Companies think,
oh, now's a good time to downsize.

And we've been seeing that. Two
is younger CEOs,

younger firms tend to be more remote.

And as current CEOs kind of age out,
retire and replaced by younger folks,

they're more sympathetic.

And finally, actually
most importantly is technology.

I'm in my 50s.

I grew up in the UK in the early 70s,

and both my parents worked
for the British government, actually.

And I remember as a kid,
one of four kids, occasionally my mum

or dad would have to work from home
because there'd be something,

I would be sick off school
or something.

And I was talking
to them the other day

and my mum was saying like,
it was terrible.

You'd have to be carrying
in the 80s piles of paper home

you could phone in to work,

but it's really expensive.

And technology's just got
ever better.

So in the 90s we had computers.

We then got the internet, cloud, you
know, video calls, all of this stuff.

If you look 2030,
it's probably going to look

like the Star Wars Jedi Council with
holograms and amazing headsets,

and it's just going
to be easier to work remotely.

So what do you think?

Where will working from home or hybrid
working be in ten years, say, from now?

I think there's a
really interesting question about

what do companies in this country
really think about working from home?

How many CEOs think like Lord Rose?

But don't say so publicly.

I say that because working
in the business unit here at the BBC,

you hear things and I've been talking
to colleagues about this,

and they think there are probably
more chief executives out there

that want their workers back in more,

possibly back in full time
than are actually letting on.

We do hear that anecdotally
in the business unit.

So I think
there's a bit of a question there

about how the chief executives of our
biggest companies think about this.

But I also think
there's another question in terms

of what this is going to look
like in, let's say, five years time.

And that's just the state of the
economy, the state of the labour market.

It's a supply and demand thing
at the moment.

Workers seem to have
more power to demand these things.

But let's say
there's an uptick in unemployment.

Let's say it's harder to find work.

Will that balance shift back
towards employers?

And so for those employers that don't
want their staff working from home,

will it be easier for them to say no

because there's a bigger pool
of people looking for work?

I think those are two things we're just
not really clear about at the moment.

Fascinating discussion.

Thanks to you both for being here.
Thank you.

Thanks very much for having me.

Thanks for being with us.

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