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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,700 There are few experiences in the stock market more universally painful and 2 00:00:03,700 --> 00:00:07,920 frustrating than being forced out of a position at a low, only to watch in 3 00:00:07,920 --> 00:00:11,820 disbelief as the price immediately reverses and surges upward without you. 4 00:00:12,220 --> 00:00:17,240 For most, this event is dismissed as simple bad luck, a random sting of the 5 00:00:17,240 --> 00:00:19,880 market or proof that the game is hopelessly rigged. 6 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:23,980 But for Richard Wyckoff, this was not a random event at all. 7 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:29,240 He recognized it as a frequent, deliberate, and most importantly, an 8 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:30,440 identifiable maneuver. 9 00:00:30,860 --> 00:00:36,240 He saw that these false breakouts to the downside, which he termed springs and 10 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:41,740 shakeouts, were not acts of chaos, but rather calculated tools used by the 11 00:00:41,740 --> 00:00:46,920 market's most informed operators, the composite man, to mislead the public and 12 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:50,140 eliminate competition just before a major advance was set to begin. 13 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:55,360 He understood that these deceptive moves, while ruinous for the uninformed, 14 00:00:55,770 --> 00:00:59,670 offered a golden opportunity for the astute analyst who knew what to look 15 00:01:00,550 --> 00:01:03,990 This video will pull back the curtain on these powerful maneuvers. 16 00:01:04,890 --> 00:01:09,690 We will explore the manipulative psychology behind them and provide a 17 00:01:09,690 --> 00:01:14,210 step -by -step guide to the specific price and volume characteristics Wyckoff 18 00:01:14,210 --> 00:01:19,210 used to identify these bear traps, turning what was once a source of 19 00:01:19,210 --> 00:01:21,310 into a signal of immense opportunity. 20 00:01:21,910 --> 00:01:23,370 Before we continue... 21 00:01:23,740 --> 00:01:27,240 Please subscribe and leave a quick comment, even one word. 22 00:01:28,340 --> 00:01:32,900 This small action helps the algorithm show this video to more people and tells 23 00:01:32,900 --> 00:01:34,740 me these deep dives are worth making. 24 00:01:35,700 --> 00:01:39,980 To understand how to identify a spring, one must first understand the 25 00:01:39,980 --> 00:01:42,400 manipulative logic behind why it is created. 26 00:01:42,660 --> 00:01:47,140 The composite man, after a long and patient campaign of absorbing shares in 27 00:01:47,140 --> 00:01:51,790 accumulation trading range, has one final problem to solve before he can 28 00:01:51,790 --> 00:01:53,050 profitable markup campaign. 29 00:01:53,950 --> 00:01:57,770 He knows that there are still other traders who have also recognized the 30 00:01:57,770 --> 00:01:59,430 potential and have taken long positions. 31 00:02:00,450 --> 00:02:04,530 He also knows that many traders have placed their protective stop -loss 32 00:02:04,530 --> 00:02:09,490 at the most logical place possible, just below the well -defined support line of 33 00:02:09,490 --> 00:02:10,490 the trading range. 34 00:02:11,510 --> 00:02:15,950 These two groups of market participants represent a potential source of supply 35 00:02:15,950 --> 00:02:17,790 that could hinder his future advance. 36 00:02:19,340 --> 00:02:23,960 If he begins the markup, these traders will sell to take profits, and he will 37 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:26,800 forced to absorb their stock at higher and higher prices. 38 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:29,360 His solution is the spring. 39 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:33,320 The maneuver has four distinct psychological objectives. 40 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:38,760 First, its primary goal is to create panic and mislead the public. 41 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:44,180 By driving the price decisively below a support level that has held for weeks or 42 00:02:44,180 --> 00:02:45,180 months, 43 00:02:45,260 --> 00:02:49,440 He creates the powerful illusion that the stock's period of stability is over 44 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,240 and that the prior downtrend is resuming. 45 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:57,140 This appearance of acute weakness frightens the last of the weak -willed 46 00:02:57,140 --> 00:03:01,100 longholders into throwing their shares overboard at the worst possible time. 47 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:07,100 Second, the spring is engineered to hunt for and trigger the clusters of stop 48 00:03:07,100 --> 00:03:08,100 -loss orders. 49 00:03:08,910 --> 00:03:13,170 The composite man knows that a significant number of shares can be 50 00:03:13,170 --> 00:03:16,230 forcing the price down to the level where these stops are placed. 51 00:03:16,830 --> 00:03:21,490 This allows him to absorb a large block of stock in a very short period of time 52 00:03:21,490 --> 00:03:24,330 without having to bid the price up to acquire it. 53 00:03:24,730 --> 00:03:28,610 It is a highly efficient method for consolidating the last of the available 54 00:03:28,610 --> 00:03:29,610 floating supply. 55 00:03:29,790 --> 00:03:33,350 Third, the move is designed to trap bearish traders. 56 00:03:34,570 --> 00:03:38,870 Breakout traders who play the short side will see the break of support as a 57 00:03:38,870 --> 00:03:40,310 clear signal to sell short. 58 00:03:40,910 --> 00:03:45,230 When they do so, they are effectively selling shares to the composite man. 59 00:03:46,350 --> 00:03:51,090 These new shorts are now trapped, and when the price reverses and begins to 60 00:03:51,090 --> 00:03:54,730 up, they will be forced to buy back their positions at higher prices. 61 00:03:56,010 --> 00:04:00,270 Their covering provides additional fuel and buying demand that helps propel the 62 00:04:00,270 --> 00:04:01,450 subsequent markup phase. 63 00:04:02,130 --> 00:04:03,130 Fourth, 64 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:06,620 The spring serves as a final, definitive test of supply. 65 00:04:07,700 --> 00:04:11,400 Before committing the vast resources required to push a stock significantly 66 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:15,800 higher, the composite man wants to be as certain as possible that the major 67 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:16,800 selling is over. 68 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:22,280 By breaking the price below support, he invites anyone who is still inclined to 69 00:04:22,280 --> 00:04:23,280 sell to do so. 70 00:04:24,140 --> 00:04:29,420 If this break fails to produce a significant cascade of new selling, He 71 00:04:29,420 --> 00:04:33,600 his final confirmation that the supply has been exhausted and that the path of 72 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:35,880 least resistance is now definitively upward. 73 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:40,260 With the psychology of the maneuver understood, we can turn to its specific 74 00:04:40,260 --> 00:04:41,260 anatomy. 75 00:04:41,340 --> 00:04:45,900 A spring is not simply any drop below a support line. It is a specific event 76 00:04:45,900 --> 00:04:48,620 with a clear context and identifiable characteristics. 77 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:51,560 The first and most important rule is context. 78 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:56,340 A true spring can only occur at the end of a prolonged and clearly defined 79 00:04:56,340 --> 00:04:57,860 accumulation trading range. 80 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:02,580 A price break below a support level in any other context, such as in the middle 81 00:05:02,580 --> 00:05:05,920 of a clear downtrend, is simply a continuation of that downtrend. 82 00:05:06,660 --> 00:05:10,300 The spring is a terminal event that concludes a period of preparation. 83 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:15,040 The analyst must first have evidence that accumulation has been taking place 84 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:17,020 before he can even begin to look for a spring. 85 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,280 The price action of a spring is its most visible feature. 86 00:05:21,130 --> 00:05:25,610 It is a sharp, often rapid and decisive thrust below the support line that has 87 00:05:25,610 --> 00:05:28,610 contained all previous reactions within the trading range. 88 00:05:29,590 --> 00:05:33,990 It is designed to look convincing, to give the clear impression of genuine 89 00:05:33,990 --> 00:05:34,990 weakness. 90 00:05:35,610 --> 00:05:40,210 The extent of the penetration can vary from a fraction of a point to several 91 00:05:40,210 --> 00:05:43,650 points, depending on the price and volatility of the stock. 92 00:05:44,670 --> 00:05:49,450 The true secret to identifying a spring, however, lies in analyzing its volume 93 00:05:49,450 --> 00:05:50,450 signature. 94 00:05:51,190 --> 00:05:55,650 Wyckoff identified two distinct types of springs, each with a different but 95 00:05:55,650 --> 00:05:57,370 equally powerful bullish implication. 96 00:05:58,050 --> 00:06:00,390 The first is a spring on low volume. 97 00:06:00,890 --> 00:06:04,410 This is arguably the most powerful bullish signal of the two. 98 00:06:04,970 --> 00:06:09,990 A thrust below support on conspicuously light volume is a direct and unambiguous 99 00:06:09,990 --> 00:06:11,110 message from the market. 100 00:06:11,530 --> 00:06:12,790 There is no supply. 101 00:06:13,830 --> 00:06:17,410 It indicates that the selling pressure has been completely exhausted. 102 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:23,260 The composite man has broken the price down into new low ground, and instead of 103 00:06:23,260 --> 00:06:26,000 meeting a wave of selling, he has found a vacuum. 104 00:06:27,100 --> 00:06:28,400 The sellers are gone. 105 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:33,600 This is proof positive that the accumulation campaign has been 106 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:36,660 the stock is ready for an immediate and often aggressive advance. 107 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:41,100 The second type is a spring on high or climactic volume. 108 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:45,880 In this scenario, the break below support does succeed in triggering a 109 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:47,160 number of stop -loss orders. 110 00:06:47,630 --> 00:06:50,710 and inducing a final wave of panic selling from the public. 111 00:06:51,510 --> 00:06:54,630 This appears on the chart as a very high volume bar. 112 00:06:55,570 --> 00:06:59,930 While this may look bearish on the surface, its interpretation depends 113 00:06:59,930 --> 00:07:02,010 on the price action that accompanies it. 114 00:07:02,770 --> 00:07:07,790 If the price stops going down on this high volume and then begins to reverse, 115 00:07:07,790 --> 00:07:08,790 is a sign of strength. 116 00:07:09,050 --> 00:07:13,230 It shows that the composite man was present and that his buying power was 117 00:07:13,230 --> 00:07:16,470 sufficient to absorb the entirety of this final wave of selling. 118 00:07:16,940 --> 00:07:18,960 without allowing the price to collapse further. 119 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:23,420 The high volume represents the successful transfer of the last of the 120 00:07:23,420 --> 00:07:25,160 from weak hands to strong hands. 121 00:07:25,740 --> 00:07:31,060 This leads to the final and most crucial element in the anatomy of a spring, the 122 00:07:31,060 --> 00:07:32,060 confirmation. 123 00:07:32,740 --> 00:07:37,640 The true secret to a spring is not the break below support itself, but the 124 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:40,280 character of the price action that immediately follows. 125 00:07:40,780 --> 00:07:44,800 A genuine spring must be confirmed by a swift and decisive recovery. 126 00:07:45,660 --> 00:07:49,260 The price must not linger in the territory below the old support line. 127 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:54,060 It must quickly reverse and climb back into the trading range, reclaiming the 128 00:07:54,060 --> 00:07:55,060 support level. 129 00:07:55,780 --> 00:08:00,300 This rapid recovery is the non -negotiable proof that the move below 130 00:08:00,300 --> 00:08:01,300 a false breakout. 131 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:05,840 It proves that the buying power that appeared at the low was superior to the 132 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:06,840 selling pressure. 133 00:08:07,140 --> 00:08:11,400 A price that breaks support and then stays down or rallies feebly back to the 134 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:14,060 underside of the support line only to be met with more selling. 135 00:08:14,650 --> 00:08:15,650 is not a spring. 136 00:08:16,070 --> 00:08:19,610 It is a genuine breakdown and the start of a new markdown phase. 137 00:08:20,150 --> 00:08:25,350 The confirmation, this quick reversal, is what turns the spring from a point of 138 00:08:25,350 --> 00:08:27,310 fear into a point of maximum opportunity. 139 00:08:28,150 --> 00:08:32,870 To make these concepts practical and immediately useful, we can distill the 140 00:08:32,870 --> 00:08:36,390 identification of a spring into a simple but effective checklist. 141 00:08:36,970 --> 00:08:41,510 This is the mental framework a Wyckoff analyst uses to test the validity of a 142 00:08:41,510 --> 00:08:43,110 potential bear trap in real time. 143 00:08:44,300 --> 00:08:48,800 First, is the stock in a clearly defined and prolonged accumulation trading 144 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:51,360 range after a significant prior downtrend? 145 00:08:51,820 --> 00:08:55,140 Without this context, the signal is not valid. 146 00:08:55,780 --> 00:08:59,780 Second, has there been a clear and decisive price penetration below the 147 00:08:59,780 --> 00:09:01,780 established support line of this trading range? 148 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:06,380 Third, what is the character of the volume on the break? 149 00:09:07,340 --> 00:09:11,500 Is it conspicuously low, indicating an exhaustion of supply? 150 00:09:12,430 --> 00:09:17,630 Or is it climactically high, indicating a powerful absorption of the final wave 151 00:09:17,630 --> 00:09:18,630 of selling? 152 00:09:19,270 --> 00:09:24,190 Fourth, and most importantly, has the price quickly and decisively rallied 153 00:09:24,190 --> 00:09:28,590 above the old support level, reclaiming its position within the trading range? 154 00:09:29,790 --> 00:09:34,730 If the answer to all four of these questions is yes, the analyst has 155 00:09:34,730 --> 00:09:36,610 a high probability buying opportunity. 156 00:09:38,110 --> 00:09:39,670 Even with a clear checklist, 157 00:09:40,430 --> 00:09:43,970 Traders often make critical errors when attempting to trade this powerful 158 00:09:43,970 --> 00:09:48,530 maneuver. Understanding these common mistakes is as important as 159 00:09:48,530 --> 00:09:49,530 the signal itself. 160 00:09:50,010 --> 00:09:54,230 The first and most dangerous mistake is confusing a genuine breakdown with a 161 00:09:54,230 --> 00:09:59,270 spring. A trader eager to find a bottom may see any move below support as a 162 00:09:59,270 --> 00:10:00,270 potential spring. 163 00:10:00,790 --> 00:10:03,010 The key difference lies in the confirmation. 164 00:10:04,350 --> 00:10:08,770 A genuine breakdown which signals the start of a new markdown phase will have 165 00:10:08,770 --> 00:10:09,770 follow -through. 166 00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:13,960 The selling pressure will continue and the price will stay below the old 167 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:14,960 level. 168 00:10:15,580 --> 00:10:19,640 Any rally will be weak and will fail at or below the underside of this old 169 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:22,080 support, which has now become new resistance. 170 00:10:23,380 --> 00:10:27,740 A spring, by contrast, fails to produce any meaningful follow -through selling 171 00:10:27,740 --> 00:10:29,020 and quickly snaps back. 172 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:32,280 The second common mistake is buying too early. 173 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:36,800 A trader may anticipate a spring and buy the stock as it is breaking down, 174 00:10:36,980 --> 00:10:39,140 before the price has confirmed its recovery. 175 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:42,100 This is a highly dangerous practice. 176 00:10:42,820 --> 00:10:45,140 It is an attempt to catch a falling knife. 177 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:49,140 The correct Wyckoff procedure is to wait for the confirmation. 178 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:53,640 The trade should only be entered after the price has proven its strength by 179 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:55,700 rallying back into the old trading range. 180 00:10:56,700 --> 00:11:01,040 The lowest risk entry point is often on the first small pullback after this 181 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:04,560 recovery, a maneuver that tests the reclaimed support line. 182 00:11:05,460 --> 00:11:07,140 By waiting for this confirmation, 183 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:12,780 The trader sacrifices a few ticks of potential profit in exchange for a much 184 00:11:12,780 --> 00:11:14,300 higher probability of success. 185 00:11:14,780 --> 00:11:18,880 To see these principles in action, we turn to the historical examples from 186 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:20,160 Wyckoff's own chart books. 187 00:11:21,260 --> 00:11:25,040 A classic case is the action of Anaconda Copper in 1935. 188 00:11:26,140 --> 00:11:30,940 After a long period of what appeared to be accumulation, the stock experienced a 189 00:11:30,940 --> 00:11:33,720 final, brutal shakeout from February into March. 190 00:11:34,730 --> 00:11:39,870 The price plunged through all its prior support levels, falling from above 11 to 191 00:11:39,870 --> 00:11:40,870 a low near 8. 192 00:11:41,830 --> 00:11:45,410 This move had all the characteristics of a final cleansing action. 193 00:11:46,190 --> 00:11:50,470 Crucially, as the market averages were still weak, Anaconda began to show 194 00:11:50,470 --> 00:11:54,770 superior comparative strength by refusing to make new lows and holding 195 00:11:55,450 --> 00:11:59,610 The selling climaxed in mid -March, and the price then quickly reversed, 196 00:11:59,950 --> 00:12:02,310 climbing back above the old support levels. 197 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:07,240 This confirmed the shakeout and set the stage for a massive advance that more 198 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:09,660 than doubled the stock's price in the following months. 199 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:15,560 Another powerful example is the terminal shakeout in Allied Chemical in 1932. 200 00:12:16,740 --> 00:12:20,980 After a long period of building a cause, the stock experienced a sharp downward 201 00:12:20,980 --> 00:12:22,860 drive from 55 to 43. 202 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:28,380 This move was clearly identified by Wyckoff as a shakeout, because the stock 203 00:12:28,380 --> 00:12:31,040 immediately found support and began to edge steadily upward. 204 00:12:31,530 --> 00:12:33,890 with volume drying up on all minor reactions. 205 00:12:34,730 --> 00:12:39,410 This confirmed that the supply had been exhausted, and it preceded a bull market 206 00:12:39,410 --> 00:12:41,270 in the stock that carried it to 135. 207 00:12:42,570 --> 00:12:44,650 In every case, the pattern is the same. 208 00:12:45,130 --> 00:12:50,590 A period of preparation, a final deceptive move to the downside, and a 209 00:12:50,590 --> 00:12:53,950 confirmation through a swift recovery that signals the true intent of the 210 00:12:53,950 --> 00:12:54,950 composite man. 211 00:12:55,890 --> 00:12:59,730 Having thoroughly examined the mechanics and psychology of the spring and the 212 00:12:59,730 --> 00:13:03,860 shakeout, The Wyckoff analyst understands how the composite man clears 213 00:13:03,860 --> 00:13:05,440 market of supply at the bottom. 214 00:13:06,220 --> 00:13:10,680 We now turn our attention to the top of the market, where the same manipulative 215 00:13:10,680 --> 00:13:12,140 logic is applied in reverse. 216 00:13:13,100 --> 00:13:17,660 Just as a spring is designed to create a false impression of weakness, its 217 00:13:17,660 --> 00:13:22,260 mirror image, the upthrust, is engineered to create a powerful illusion 218 00:13:22,260 --> 00:13:23,260 strength. 219 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:26,980 It is the final deceptive act in a campaign of distribution. 220 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:31,780 designed to trap the last wave of enthusiastic buyers at the very peak of 221 00:13:31,780 --> 00:13:32,780 market move. 222 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:38,400 Understanding this maneuver is just as critical as understanding the spring, 223 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:42,880 it provides the clearest and most reliable evidence that an advance is 224 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:44,800 that a significant decline is imminent. 225 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:49,720 The upthrust is the composite man's signal that he has completed his selling 226 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:52,120 is now ready to allow the stock to seek lower levels. 227 00:13:52,340 --> 00:13:56,420 The psychology behind the upthrust is rooted in the public's inherent bullish 228 00:13:56,420 --> 00:13:58,920 bias. and their fear of missing out. 229 00:13:59,740 --> 00:14:03,980 After a long and sustained advance, public excitement is at its peak. 230 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:09,440 News is overwhelmingly positive and stories of quick fortunes abound. 231 00:14:09,740 --> 00:14:14,140 The composite man who has been quietly distributing his shares to this wave of 232 00:14:14,140 --> 00:14:18,340 public buying needs a final event to unload his remaining inventory at the 233 00:14:18,340 --> 00:14:19,580 highest possible prices. 234 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:22,800 The upthrust serves this purpose perfectly. 235 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:25,840 Its objectives are the mirror image of the springs. 236 00:14:26,910 --> 00:14:29,970 First, it is designed to create a state of euphoria. 237 00:14:30,450 --> 00:14:35,570 By pushing the price to a new high, above a well -defined resistance level, 238 00:14:35,570 --> 00:14:39,190 signals to the public that the strong uptrend is resuming with even greater 239 00:14:39,190 --> 00:14:44,570 force. This entices the last of the hesitant buyers to jump in, fearing they 240 00:14:44,570 --> 00:14:46,210 will miss the next great leg up. 241 00:14:47,390 --> 00:14:51,770 Second, the upthrust is engineered to hunt for and trigger the stop -loss 242 00:14:51,770 --> 00:14:52,770 of short sellers. 243 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:56,780 Traders who have been bearish on the stock will have placed their protective 244 00:14:56,780 --> 00:14:59,200 stops just above the obvious resistance line. 245 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:05,140 The push to a new high is designed to catch these stops, forcing the shorts to 246 00:15:05,140 --> 00:15:06,780 buy back their positions at a loss. 247 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:11,820 This wave of forced buying provides additional demand into which the 248 00:15:11,820 --> 00:15:13,440 man can sell his shares. 249 00:15:14,420 --> 00:15:20,360 Third, and most importantly, the upthrust provides the final, 250 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:21,420 of public demand. 251 00:15:22,030 --> 00:15:24,590 that the composite man needs to complete his distribution. 252 00:15:25,890 --> 00:15:31,270 He uses the excitement of the breakout to new highs as the perfect cover to 253 00:15:31,270 --> 00:15:35,730 his large line of stock into the market, transferring the last of his holdings 254 00:15:35,730 --> 00:15:38,190 to the weak hands of the euphoric public. 255 00:15:38,610 --> 00:15:44,350 Once this transfer is complete, the stock is in a technically weak position, 256 00:15:44,350 --> 00:15:47,350 the composite man has no further interest in supporting the price. 257 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:51,760 The anatomy of an upthrust is a direct reflection of this manipulative intent. 258 00:15:52,820 --> 00:15:55,940 Just as with the spring, context is paramount. 259 00:15:56,440 --> 00:16:01,000 An upthrust is a valid signal of a top only when it occurs after a prolonged 260 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:03,820 advance and within a clear distribution trading range. 261 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:09,260 A move to a new high in the early stages of a powerful young uptrend is not an 262 00:16:09,260 --> 00:16:12,580 upthrust. It is simply a continuation of the trend. 263 00:16:13,900 --> 00:16:18,160 The upthrust is a terminal event that marks the exhaustion of demand after a 264 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:19,160 long campaign. 265 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:24,440 The price action of an upthrust is a push above a well -defined resistance 266 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:25,460 that fails to hold. 267 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:31,440 The stock may look incredibly strong for a moment, but it is unable to sustain 268 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:34,340 its gains and quickly falls back below the resistance line. 269 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:39,480 Once again, the most vital clues to the true nature of the move are found in the 270 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:40,480 volume signature. 271 00:16:41,740 --> 00:16:45,620 An upthrust typically occurs with one of two distinct volume characteristics. 272 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:50,200 The first is an upthrust on conspicuously low volume. 273 00:16:50,460 --> 00:16:54,260 The price pushes to a new high, but the volume is unusually light. 274 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:56,760 This is a powerful sign of weakness. 275 00:16:57,440 --> 00:16:59,880 It demonstrates a lack of genuine demand. 276 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:04,140 The move has no force, no effort behind it. 277 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:08,760 It shows that the composite man is not participating in the buying and that the 278 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:10,619 public's buying power has been exhausted. 279 00:17:11,530 --> 00:17:15,569 Such a move is doomed to fail as soon as even a small amount of supply appears. 280 00:17:16,410 --> 00:17:20,829 The second and more common type is an upthrust on high or climactic volume. 281 00:17:22,069 --> 00:17:26,510 In this scenario, the price pushes to a new high on a massive burst of volume, 282 00:17:26,609 --> 00:17:30,110 but it makes little or no further upward progress and then stalls. 283 00:17:31,110 --> 00:17:35,570 This is a classic example of the law of effort versus result showing a fatal 284 00:17:35,570 --> 00:17:36,570 divergence. 285 00:17:37,210 --> 00:17:41,810 The immense effort, which is the high volume, is failing to produce a 286 00:17:41,810 --> 00:17:45,050 corresponding result which would be a sustained price advance. 287 00:17:46,230 --> 00:17:50,370 This indicates that the apparent breakout is being met with an 288 00:17:50,370 --> 00:17:53,750 of selling or distribution from the composite man. 289 00:17:54,370 --> 00:17:59,350 He is using the public's excitement to unload his shares, and his supply is so 290 00:17:59,350 --> 00:18:02,450 great that it is completely absorbing all the demand. 291 00:18:02,930 --> 00:18:07,730 Following either type of upthrust, the definitive proof of the maneuver is the 292 00:18:07,730 --> 00:18:08,730 confirmation. 293 00:18:09,020 --> 00:18:11,420 the failure of the price to hold the breakout. 294 00:18:12,420 --> 00:18:16,960 The stock will quickly fall back below the resistance level and into the old 295 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:17,960 trading range. 296 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:22,980 This failure is the clear signal that the breakout was false and that the 297 00:18:22,980 --> 00:18:23,980 have been trapped. 298 00:18:24,540 --> 00:18:29,220 For the Wyckoff analyst, identifying a confirmed upthrust is not only a signal 299 00:18:29,220 --> 00:18:34,440 to exit any long positions immediately, but it is also one of the safest and 300 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:37,100 most reliable signals to initiate a short sale. 301 00:18:37,770 --> 00:18:42,730 as it indicates that supply is now in control and a markdown phase is the most 302 00:18:42,730 --> 00:18:43,730 probable outcome. 303 00:18:44,090 --> 00:18:48,390 To make the identification of this critical topping signal a practical and 304 00:18:48,390 --> 00:18:52,870 repeatable skill, we can establish a clear checklist for the Wyckoff analysts 305 00:18:52,870 --> 00:18:53,870 follow. 306 00:18:54,250 --> 00:18:58,730 This framework ensures that a conclusion is based not on a single observation, 307 00:18:59,050 --> 00:19:01,130 but on a confluence of evidence. 308 00:19:01,650 --> 00:19:06,580 First, Has the stock experienced a significant and prolonged advance, and 309 00:19:06,580 --> 00:19:09,140 now in what appears to be a distribution trading range? 310 00:19:09,620 --> 00:19:13,860 Second, has there been a clear price penetration above the established 311 00:19:13,860 --> 00:19:15,820 resistance line of this trading range? 312 00:19:17,020 --> 00:19:20,440 Third, what was the character of the volume on the break? 313 00:19:21,100 --> 00:19:24,640 Was it suspiciously low, indicating no genuine demand? 314 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:29,660 Or was it climactically high, with little or no subsequent upward progress, 315 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:31,300 indicating heavy distribution? 316 00:19:32,190 --> 00:19:37,110 Fourth, and most importantly, has the price quickly and decisively fallen back 317 00:19:37,110 --> 00:19:40,250 below the old resistance level, failing to hold the breakout? 318 00:19:41,490 --> 00:19:46,390 If the answer to all four of these questions is yes, the analyst has 319 00:19:46,390 --> 00:19:49,150 a high probability selling or short -selling opportunity. 320 00:19:50,550 --> 00:19:55,370 Just as traders make predictable errors when faced with a spring, they make a 321 00:19:55,370 --> 00:19:58,890 similar set of mistakes when confronted with a potential upthrust. 322 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:03,920 Understanding these pitfalls is essential for avoiding the bull trap. 323 00:20:04,660 --> 00:20:07,480 The most common mistake is shorting too early. 324 00:20:08,060 --> 00:20:12,800 A trader may anticipate an upthrust and sell short as the price is breaking out, 325 00:20:12,940 --> 00:20:15,680 before the maneuver has confirmed its failure. 326 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:20,180 This is the equivalent of stepping in front of a speeding train. 327 00:20:21,120 --> 00:20:25,980 The stock may, in fact, be experiencing a genuine breakout or a reaccumulation 328 00:20:25,980 --> 00:20:30,140 phase. and the premature short seller will be forced to cover at a significant 329 00:20:30,140 --> 00:20:31,140 loss. 330 00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:35,360 The correct Wyckoff procedure is to always wait for the confirmation. 331 00:20:36,340 --> 00:20:40,320 The short sale should only be considered after the price has failed to hold its 332 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:42,980 gains and has fallen back into the trading range. 333 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:46,780 The second common mistake is ignoring the context. 334 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:51,900 A trader might see a small temporary push to a new high in the middle of a 335 00:20:51,900 --> 00:20:54,740 powerful healthy uptrend and mistake it for an upthrust. 336 00:20:55,920 --> 00:21:00,820 As previously stated, an upthrust is a terminal event that occurs within a 337 00:21:00,820 --> 00:21:03,060 distribution range at the end of a long advance. 338 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:08,220 A minor new high that is quickly followed by the resumption of the 339 00:21:08,220 --> 00:21:09,220 not an upthrust. 340 00:21:09,660 --> 00:21:14,780 It is simply part of the normal two -steps -forward, one -step -back rhythm 341 00:21:14,780 --> 00:21:15,780 bull market. 342 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:21,120 The analyst must have prior evidence of distribution, such as labored rallies 343 00:21:21,120 --> 00:21:22,920 and increasing volume on reactions. 344 00:21:23,710 --> 00:21:27,510 before he can begin to interpret a move above resistance as a potential 345 00:21:27,510 --> 00:21:28,510 upthrust. 346 00:21:29,110 --> 00:21:33,730 To see the upthrust in action, we can look to the historical examples Wyckoff 347 00:21:33,730 --> 00:21:35,190 used to instruct his students. 348 00:21:36,070 --> 00:21:41,370 The climactic top of the 1929 bull market, as analyzed on Wyckoff's point 349 00:21:41,370 --> 00:21:45,130 figure charts of the market averages, provides a macro example of this 350 00:21:45,130 --> 00:21:50,140 principle. After months of building a massive distribution formation, the 351 00:21:50,140 --> 00:21:53,360 made a final euphoric push to new all -time highs. 352 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:59,460 This move, however, was the terminal upthrust, designed to draw in the last 353 00:21:59,460 --> 00:22:01,440 the public's buying power before the collapse. 354 00:22:02,420 --> 00:22:06,380 A more specific example can be found in Wyckoff's analysis of a topping 355 00:22:06,380 --> 00:22:07,760 formation in the stock reading. 356 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:13,380 He describes a moment where the stock, after a long rise, experienced a sudden 357 00:22:13,380 --> 00:22:14,380 burst of activity. 358 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:19,160 with tens of thousands of shares trading within a very narrow range near the 359 00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:20,160 high. 360 00:22:20,540 --> 00:22:23,060 This was a clear sign of effort without result. 361 00:22:24,140 --> 00:22:29,380 The immense volume failed to push the price materially higher, indicating that 362 00:22:29,380 --> 00:22:32,160 massive block of stock was being distributed to the public. 363 00:22:33,020 --> 00:22:38,440 This upthrust action marked the immediate top, and the stock promptly 364 00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:39,440 severe decline. 365 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:42,720 In every case, the anatomy is the same. 366 00:22:43,310 --> 00:22:47,290 the creation of a powerful illusion of strength that is not supported by the 367 00:22:47,290 --> 00:22:51,910 underlying evidence of volume, followed by a swift reversal that traps the bulls 368 00:22:51,910 --> 00:22:53,950 and signals the victory of supply over demand. 369 00:22:54,290 --> 00:22:58,630 For those who wish to truly master the lessons discussed here, it is essential 370 00:22:58,630 --> 00:23:00,070 to study them from the source. 371 00:23:00,450 --> 00:23:05,450 Please take note of a unique new edition of Richard Wyckoff's masterpiece How I 372 00:23:05,450 --> 00:23:09,210 Trade and Invest in Stocks and Bonds by Max Davidson. 373 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:14,420 It has been meticulously adapted for the modern trader, complete with 374 00:23:14,420 --> 00:23:18,440 explanations that make Wyckoff's timeless wisdom more accessible than 375 00:23:19,260 --> 00:23:23,840 For anyone who wants to truly absorb the lessons we are discussing, this adapted 376 00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,360 edition is an indispensable part of your library. 377 00:23:27,580 --> 00:23:30,940 The link to this book is located in the description of this video. 378 00:23:32,260 --> 00:23:36,540 The true power of the Wyckoff method is not in guessing the direction, but in 379 00:23:36,540 --> 00:23:39,060 reading the logic of the composite man's actions. 380 00:23:40,500 --> 00:23:44,400 Understanding the secrets of the spring and the upthrust is perhaps the ultimate 381 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:45,720 expression of this principle. 382 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:52,060 These maneuvers are the composite man's most direct communications, his clearest 383 00:23:52,060 --> 00:23:53,060 statements of intent. 384 00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:59,000 They are deliberate deceptions, designed to prey on the public's most 385 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:03,940 predictable emotional responses, fear at the bottom and greed at the top. 386 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:09,100 The analyst who learns to identify these false breakouts to understand their 387 00:24:09,100 --> 00:24:13,360 manipulative purpose and to read their telltale signatures in price and volume 388 00:24:13,360 --> 00:24:17,700 elevates himself from a mere participant in the market to a reader of it. 389 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:23,060 He learns to use the composite man's own deceptive tactics to his advantage, 390 00:24:23,360 --> 00:24:28,420 buying when the trap is sprung on the bears and selling when the trap is 391 00:24:28,420 --> 00:24:32,100 on the bulls. This is the essence of trading in harmony with smart money. 36205

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