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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,780 The stock market is a riddle to most. 2 00:00:02,260 --> 00:00:06,340 Millions of people risk their capital on what they believe is a matter of chance 3 00:00:06,340 --> 00:00:10,440 or privileged information, only to meet with consistent failure. 4 00:00:10,880 --> 00:00:16,500 But in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, one man dedicated his life to 5 00:00:16,500 --> 00:00:18,900 transforming this riddle into a readable science. 6 00:00:20,260 --> 00:00:24,920 He conducted a deep and intimate study within the very heart of Wall Street, 7 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:29,390 through decades of persistent observation and practice, he found that 8 00:00:29,390 --> 00:00:30,770 has a language of its own. 9 00:00:31,410 --> 00:00:34,430 To those who can read it, it tells its own future story. 10 00:00:35,190 --> 00:00:39,950 His name was Richard D. Wyckoff, and this is the story of how he learned to 11 00:00:39,950 --> 00:00:42,870 it, and in turn taught others to do the same. 12 00:00:43,870 --> 00:00:48,930 His journey began not in a university, but in the real arena of finance, where 13 00:00:48,930 --> 00:00:50,730 theory gives way to harsh reality. 14 00:00:52,070 --> 00:00:57,300 In 1888, at the young age of 15, Richard Wyckoff started his career on Wall 15 00:00:57,300 --> 00:00:59,880 Street as a stockrunner for a small brokerage firm. 16 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:04,440 The world he entered was a cauldron of raw, untamed capitalism. 17 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:10,360 It was an era of financial titans whose names alone could sway markets, men like 18 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:13,240 J .P. Morgan, James R. Keene, and E .H. Harriman. 19 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:19,400 It was also an era of profound danger for the common man, a landscape rife 20 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:23,700 manipulative stock pools, treacherous bucket shops designed to fleece the 21 00:01:23,700 --> 00:01:28,340 unwary, and a near total absence of the transparency and regulation that are 22 00:01:28,340 --> 00:01:29,340 commonplace today. 23 00:01:30,180 --> 00:01:34,380 This environment, perilous and electric, became Wyckoff's classroom. 24 00:01:35,220 --> 00:01:39,640 From his position, he had an unfiltered view of the actions of every class of 25 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:44,160 market participant, and he was, above all else, a persistent student of the 26 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:45,160 security markets. 27 00:01:45,380 --> 00:01:49,880 What Wyckoff witnessed day after day was a grand and recurring tragedy of 28 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:51,280 financial self -destruction. 29 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:57,120 This tragedy was not born of malice, but of a few simple yet devastating flaws 30 00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:00,340 in human nature when confronted with the allure of easy money. 31 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:04,840 He observed that the majority of people who came to the street were almost 32 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:07,620 totally ignorant of the business they were venturing into. 33 00:02:08,479 --> 00:02:12,420 They were, as he later described it, mentally lazy. 34 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:17,460 A man who was otherwise shrewd, careful, and successful in his own established 35 00:02:17,460 --> 00:02:21,040 business would arrive in the financial district and promptly abandon all 36 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:22,040 caution. 37 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:26,880 His desire was not to learn the intricate machinery of the market, but 38 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:30,120 given a tip, to be told something good to buy. 39 00:02:31,220 --> 00:02:34,120 This approach, he quickly realized, was not speculation. 40 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:36,240 It was pure gambling. 41 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:42,140 True speculation, as he learned to define it, involves the use of 42 00:02:42,140 --> 00:02:43,140 foresight. 43 00:02:44,170 --> 00:02:46,370 Yet most people he saw used neither. 44 00:02:47,270 --> 00:02:52,910 They were driven by two primal emotions, the hope of profit and the fear of 45 00:02:52,910 --> 00:02:56,910 loss, causing them to drift aimlessly in the market's powerful currents. 46 00:02:58,130 --> 00:03:02,670 A ruinous habit, he observed, was their tendency to accept a small profit with 47 00:03:02,670 --> 00:03:07,590 nervous excitement while simultaneously tolerating a large and growing loss with 48 00:03:07,590 --> 00:03:08,590 stubborn hope. 49 00:03:08,780 --> 00:03:12,840 This single pattern of behavior was so common and so destructive that it formed 50 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:16,240 the very business model of the bucket shops that littered the financial 51 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:17,240 landscape. 52 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:22,080 These early stark observations solidified in Wyckoff's mind the 53 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:23,760 problem he needed to solve. 54 00:03:24,700 --> 00:03:30,040 If the path of the average man, guided by emotion and ignorance, led invariably 55 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:33,940 to ruin, then the path to success must be its polar opposite. 56 00:03:35,180 --> 00:03:36,940 Success required a method. 57 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:41,820 a set of logical, repeatable principles to replace the chaos of hope and fear. 58 00:03:42,220 --> 00:03:45,160 It required a science for navigating the market. 59 00:03:46,500 --> 00:03:50,760 Wyckoff's formal education in this new science began at the suggestion of his 60 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:55,180 first employer, who encouraged the young man to begin studying railroad and 61 00:03:55,180 --> 00:03:56,360 other corporation statistics. 62 00:03:57,540 --> 00:04:02,680 He dedicated his nights to this pursuit, diligently poring over financial papers 63 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:05,480 and studying the probable future value of various securities. 64 00:04:07,150 --> 00:04:11,110 When he lacked the funds for an actual purchase, he made imaginary trades, 65 00:04:11,350 --> 00:04:15,210 recording his selections in a notebook and, most importantly, the reasons for 66 00:04:15,210 --> 00:04:16,210 his decisions. 67 00:04:16,630 --> 00:04:20,490 He would later champion this method of study, advocating for years of paper 68 00:04:20,490 --> 00:04:23,970 trading before an individual should risk a single dollar of real money. 69 00:04:24,690 --> 00:04:26,410 He practiced what he preached. 70 00:04:27,050 --> 00:04:31,110 He did not make his first real investment until he had been studying 71 00:04:31,110 --> 00:04:35,850 years, and he did not begin active trading for another six years after 72 00:04:37,130 --> 00:04:40,870 He was building a foundation of knowledge that he knew would be 73 00:04:42,350 --> 00:04:46,570 His first foray into the market was the purchase of a single share of St. Louis 74 00:04:46,570 --> 00:04:49,470 and San Francisco common stock at $4 per share. 75 00:04:50,670 --> 00:04:56,010 As he slowly accumulated more capital, he bought more one -share lots, a 76 00:04:56,010 --> 00:05:00,410 practice he continued until his chosen brokerage firm, annoyed by the small 77 00:05:00,410 --> 00:05:03,650 commissions, informed him they no longer desired his business. 78 00:05:04,170 --> 00:05:08,330 This forced him to buy larger quantities of fewer stocks, but his early 79 00:05:08,330 --> 00:05:11,170 experience with odd lots taught him a crucial lesson. 80 00:05:11,630 --> 00:05:16,110 He found that even when his fundamental analysis of a company's financial health 81 00:05:16,110 --> 00:05:21,010 and earning power was perfectly correct, the stock's price would often fluctuate 82 00:05:21,010 --> 00:05:22,810 widely due to external forces. 83 00:05:23,650 --> 00:05:27,910 A stock with excellent prospects might decline simply because the general 84 00:05:27,910 --> 00:05:28,910 was weak. 85 00:05:29,170 --> 00:05:33,520 From this... He concluded that three primary factors governed a stock's 86 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:39,060 movement, its intrinsic value and earning power, the manipulative forces 87 00:05:39,060 --> 00:05:42,740 upon it, and the overwhelming trend of the market itself. 88 00:05:43,540 --> 00:05:46,820 This realization marked a pivotal shift in his focus. 89 00:05:47,500 --> 00:05:52,180 He understood that to succeed, he had to look beyond the balance sheet of a 90 00:05:52,180 --> 00:05:56,420 single company and begin to analyze the behavior of the entire market and, most 91 00:05:56,420 --> 00:05:58,980 importantly, the powerful men who moved it. 92 00:05:59,450 --> 00:06:04,430 To truly understand these forces, Wyckoff knew he had to get closer to the 93 00:06:04,430 --> 00:06:05,430 of the machine. 94 00:06:05,870 --> 00:06:09,730 He secured a position with a leading New York stock exchange house that handled 95 00:06:09,730 --> 00:06:13,330 a large volume of business for the most prominent operators of the era. 96 00:06:13,950 --> 00:06:18,010 There he began to analyze the market not from the perspective of an outsider, 97 00:06:18,270 --> 00:06:22,890 but from the standpoint of an insider who was a factor in influencing prices. 98 00:06:23,710 --> 00:06:28,290 These prominent operators were the financial titans of their day. 99 00:06:28,840 --> 00:06:33,640 men who commanded enough capital to operate the price of a stock through 100 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:36,160 coordinated campaigns of buying and selling. 101 00:06:36,860 --> 00:06:41,120 He studied their methods with the intensity of a scientist observing a new 102 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:42,120 phenomenon. 103 00:06:42,380 --> 00:06:47,360 One of these men was James R. Keene, a brilliant and feared operator who 104 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:48,400 dominated the street. 105 00:06:49,280 --> 00:06:53,540 Wyckoff observed Keene trading over his ticker and saw firsthand the immense 106 00:06:53,540 --> 00:06:57,640 concentration and nervous energy required, even for a master. 107 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:02,360 Keen's admission that he was doing well if he was right six times out of ten 108 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:06,380 taught Wyckoff a valuable lesson about the fallibility of even the greatest 109 00:07:06,380 --> 00:07:09,420 traders and the necessity of managing losses. 110 00:07:09,940 --> 00:07:14,760 Another was E. H. Harriman, the legendary railroad magnate who had built 111 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:17,960 empire through brilliant financial and operational maneuvering. 112 00:07:18,300 --> 00:07:22,840 Wyckoff learned from Harriman the importance of foresight, of seeing the 113 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:24,900 value in assets that others had discarded. 114 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:27,940 Crucially, Harriman. 115 00:07:28,440 --> 00:07:32,740 who began his own career as a floor trader, advocated for the absolute 116 00:07:32,740 --> 00:07:37,700 limitation of risk, a principle that became a cornerstone of Wyckoff's own 117 00:07:37,700 --> 00:07:38,700 methodology. 118 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:44,820 The most dominant figure of all was J .P. Morgan, the powerful banker who 119 00:07:44,820 --> 00:07:49,360 as America's de facto central banker before the creation of the Federal 120 00:07:50,380 --> 00:07:54,900 Morgan's ability to foresee and orchestrate vast changes in the 121 00:07:54,900 --> 00:07:57,280 industrial landscape was unparalleled. 122 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:01,900 His formation of massive corporations like U .S. Steel demonstrated the 123 00:08:01,900 --> 00:08:04,580 power of organized capital to shape the market. 124 00:08:05,100 --> 00:08:09,200 Wyckoff also studied the methods of Jesse Livermore, perhaps the most famous 125 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:10,880 speculator of the 20th century. 126 00:08:12,380 --> 00:08:15,300 Livermore's genius lay in his highly disciplined approach. 127 00:08:16,140 --> 00:08:18,780 He described to Wyckoff his core principles. 128 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:24,040 Unless a stock showed him a profit within a few days, he would close the 129 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,800 reasoning that his timing was wrong and his capital could be better employed 130 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:31,460 elsewhere. He would not allow hope to influence his decisions. 131 00:08:32,039 --> 00:08:37,000 He used both a price stop to limit his monetary loss and a time stop to prevent 132 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:41,480 his capital from becoming stagnant. And as we hear these names and stories from 133 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:45,660 a century ago, it's natural to feel a gap between that world and ours. 134 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:50,320 How can we truly grasp these lessons without understanding the context in 135 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:51,320 they were learned? 136 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:55,680 This is precisely the bridge that Max Davidson's unique new edition of Richard 137 00:08:55,680 --> 00:09:01,220 Wyckoff's masterpiece, How I Trade and Invest in Stocks and Bonds, was created 138 00:09:01,220 --> 00:09:02,220 to build. 139 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:04,840 This is not just a reprint. 140 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:10,000 It is a guided tour through the mind of a Wall Street legend, meticulously 141 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:12,360 adapted for the 21st century trader. 142 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:17,340 The original text has been updated to make the language modern and clear. 143 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:21,700 but the real treasure lies in over 50 in -depth annotations. 144 00:09:22,300 --> 00:09:27,180 These notes explain the crucial context behind the names you've just heard, the 145 00:09:27,180 --> 00:09:31,460 inner workings of the bucket shops, the true power of magnates like J .P. 146 00:09:31,500 --> 00:09:35,840 Morgan, and the specific market conditions behind Wyckoff's most famous 147 00:09:36,340 --> 00:09:40,940 It transforms a historical document into a practical, actionable playbook. 148 00:09:41,860 --> 00:09:46,480 For anyone who wants to truly internalize the lessons we are 149 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,520 annotated edition is an essential volume for your library. 150 00:09:50,060 --> 00:09:52,500 The link to get it is in the description below. 151 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:57,680 With this deeper context in mind, we can better appreciate what Wyckoff 152 00:09:57,680 --> 00:09:59,500 discerned by observing these masters. 153 00:10:00,740 --> 00:10:02,420 He saw a common pattern. 154 00:10:03,220 --> 00:10:07,880 Their success was not based on guesswork or random tips, but on a deep 155 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:12,160 understanding of market mechanics, supply and demand, and math psychology. 156 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:14,800 They did not follow the crowd. 157 00:10:15,420 --> 00:10:19,820 They anticipated the crowd's predictable emotional behavior and used it to their 158 00:10:19,820 --> 00:10:23,260 advantage. They planned their campaigns meticulously. 159 00:10:24,340 --> 00:10:29,420 First, they would quietly accumulate a large line of stock at low prices, a 160 00:10:29,420 --> 00:10:33,480 process that could take weeks or months, preferring to buy when the market was 161 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:34,480 dull and depressed. 162 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:39,640 This phase was designed to acquire shares without advancing the price. 163 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:45,130 Once their accumulation was complete, they would begin the mark -up phase. 164 00:10:46,330 --> 00:10:50,470 They would advertise the stock on the tape by making it active and strong, 165 00:10:50,690 --> 00:10:53,790 generating excitement and attracting public buying. 166 00:10:55,010 --> 00:10:59,190 This activity, often accompanied by bullish rumors and news, would drive the 167 00:10:59,190 --> 00:11:00,190 price higher. 168 00:11:01,230 --> 00:11:04,910 Finally, at the peak of the public's excitement, when the news was 169 00:11:04,910 --> 00:11:10,130 positive, they would begin the distribution phase, selling their large 170 00:11:10,130 --> 00:11:11,990 to the very public they had lured in. 171 00:11:12,540 --> 00:11:17,500 This transfer of stock from strong, informed hands to weak, uninformed hands 172 00:11:17,500 --> 00:11:22,420 left the stock in a technically precarious position, ready for a 173 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:25,380 Wyckoff's objective became crystal clear. 174 00:11:26,180 --> 00:11:28,200 He had to decode these campaigns. 175 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:33,000 He had to learn to spot the thumbprints on the tape left by these large 176 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:36,300 operators so that he could follow them with pleasure and profit. 177 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:41,800 This intense focus on the market's own actions led Wyckoff to the stock ticker 178 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:46,160 tape, the primary source of real -time price and volume data in his era. 179 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:51,080 He began to see that the tape was far more than a simple record of 180 00:11:51,900 --> 00:11:55,900 It was a running commentary on the balance of power between buyers and 181 00:11:57,180 --> 00:12:02,240 He realized that the basic law of supply and demand governed all price changes. 182 00:12:02,940 --> 00:12:06,160 and that the best indicator of the future course of the market was the 183 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,380 relationship between this supply and demand. 184 00:12:09,420 --> 00:12:13,580 He saw that the action of stocks reflected the plans and purposes of 185 00:12:13,580 --> 00:12:17,540 dominated them, and that by studying the tape it was possible to judge what 186 00:12:17,540 --> 00:12:18,880 these masterminds were doing. 187 00:12:19,740 --> 00:12:23,160 Every transaction he reasoned represented a meeting of minds. 188 00:12:24,180 --> 00:12:28,660 By analyzing not just the price but the volume of shares traded, One could 189 00:12:28,660 --> 00:12:32,400 measure the force of the buying power or selling power, the eagerness of the 190 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:34,340 buyers and the anxiety of the sellers. 191 00:12:35,140 --> 00:12:38,720 The tape, in essence, was a record of market psychology in motion. 192 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:43,420 It told the news minutes, hours, and sometimes days before the newspapers. 193 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:48,100 Everything from a corporate development to a Supreme Court decision was 194 00:12:48,100 --> 00:12:52,560 reflected first upon the tape as those with advanced knowledge made their 195 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:58,540 These studies were first codified in his influential book, studies in tape 196 00:12:58,540 --> 00:13:02,760 reading, a work that laid out one of the first systematic approaches to 197 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:03,760 technical analysis. 198 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:08,800 Initially, he used these principles for active, day -to -day trading. 199 00:13:09,680 --> 00:13:13,340 However, he soon found that the same principles could be applied with even 200 00:13:13,340 --> 00:13:17,840 greater success and far less nervous strain to the intermediate swings of the 201 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:18,840 market. 202 00:13:19,380 --> 00:13:23,900 Those movements of 5, 10, or 20 points that typically unfold over several weeks 203 00:13:23,900 --> 00:13:24,900 or months 204 00:13:25,770 --> 00:13:29,370 It was in these larger swings that the campaigns of accumulation and 205 00:13:29,370 --> 00:13:33,270 distribution were most clearly defined and offered the greatest opportunities. 206 00:13:33,670 --> 00:13:38,430 To simplify the complexities of the market, Wyckoff developed his central 207 00:13:38,430 --> 00:13:41,230 interpretive concept, the composite man. 208 00:13:41,610 --> 00:13:45,870 He urged his students to cease thinking about the market as a chaotic collection 209 00:13:45,870 --> 00:13:50,430 of thousands of individual traders and instead to view its action as the 210 00:13:50,430 --> 00:13:51,910 expression of a single mind. 211 00:13:52,170 --> 00:13:54,850 Let us call him the composite man, he wrote. 212 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:58,820 who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your 213 00:13:58,820 --> 00:14:03,340 disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it, and to your 214 00:14:03,340 --> 00:14:04,920 profit if you do understand it. 215 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:10,040 This composite man represents the amalgamation of all the shrewdest, most 216 00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:12,160 -informed operators and financial interests. 217 00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:15,180 He is the epitome of smart money. 218 00:14:15,940 --> 00:14:19,260 He is cool, calculating, and patient. 219 00:14:20,330 --> 00:14:24,910 His purpose is to conduct well -planned campaigns to accumulate stocks at low 220 00:14:24,910 --> 00:14:27,770 prices and then distribute them at high prices. 221 00:14:28,370 --> 00:14:32,990 He advertises his stocks on the tape by making them active and strong to attract 222 00:14:32,990 --> 00:14:35,110 a public following when he wishes to sell. 223 00:14:36,270 --> 00:14:40,130 He makes the stock look weak and triggers raids to frighten the public 224 00:14:40,130 --> 00:14:41,510 selling when he wishes to buy. 225 00:14:42,630 --> 00:14:45,810 The Wyckoff student's job is not to fight the composite man. 226 00:14:46,700 --> 00:14:50,660 but to recognize his operations as they unfold on the charts and on the tape, 227 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:53,680 and to take a position in harmony with him. 228 00:14:54,580 --> 00:14:59,560 By studying the market as if it were the result of one man's operations, the 229 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:02,340 entire process of analysis becomes vastly simplified. 230 00:15:03,380 --> 00:15:07,480 One no longer asks, what are thousands of people thinking? 231 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:11,640 But rather, what is the composite man doing now? 232 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,300 Is he accumulating, or is he distributing? 233 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:20,660 This single powerful concept cuts through the noise and confusion of the 234 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:24,800 allowing the analyst to focus on the true story of supply and demand. 235 00:15:25,540 --> 00:15:30,740 As Wyckoff's understanding deepened and his own success grew, his focus shifted 236 00:15:30,740 --> 00:15:32,320 increasingly toward education. 237 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:37,540 He felt a strong responsibility to share the principles he had uncovered. 238 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:43,180 This mission led him, in the midst of the panic of 1907, to found a magazine 239 00:15:43,180 --> 00:15:47,540 called The Ticker, which he later renamed the magazine of Wall Street. 240 00:15:48,260 --> 00:15:50,020 He had two primary motivations. 241 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:55,080 First, he found that the process of writing out his thoughts helped him to 242 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:58,500 clarify and crystallize the principles that guided his own operations. 243 00:15:59,700 --> 00:16:04,720 Second, and more importantly, he aimed to demystify the market for the public. 244 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:09,920 He had seen firsthand that the public's greatest handicap was its ignorance of 245 00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:11,100 the real rules of the game. 246 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:16,160 He wanted to emphasize that success on Wall Street was not a matter of luck or 247 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:20,580 mysterious connections, but of common sense combined with dedicated study and 248 00:16:20,580 --> 00:16:21,580 practical experience. 249 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:26,800 His magazine quickly became a hub for those seeking a deeper understanding of 250 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:27,800 the market. 251 00:16:27,820 --> 00:16:32,420 He received countless inquiries from anxious investors, and he examined 252 00:16:32,420 --> 00:16:35,700 trading ideas and mechanical systems sent to him by subscribers. 253 00:16:36,860 --> 00:16:40,820 This process of teaching and interacting with others further honed his own 254 00:16:40,820 --> 00:16:41,820 methods. 255 00:16:42,570 --> 00:16:46,250 He saw that most clients wanted to lean, not to learn. 256 00:16:46,910 --> 00:16:50,490 He believed that the only way for a broker to build a base of permanent 257 00:16:50,490 --> 00:16:54,670 successful clients was to educate them, to teach them how to make their own 258 00:16:54,670 --> 00:16:55,670 sound decisions. 259 00:16:56,750 --> 00:17:01,370 This philosophy was radical for its time, but it was the core of his life's 260 00:17:01,370 --> 00:17:02,370 work. 261 00:17:02,810 --> 00:17:07,310 His ultimate goal was to provide investors and traders with the tools for 262 00:17:07,310 --> 00:17:11,760 -reliance. to help them graduate from the class of the uninformed public to 263 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:13,680 ranks of shrewd independent operators. 264 00:17:14,220 --> 00:17:18,420 This lifetime of observation, practice, and teaching culminated in the 265 00:17:18,420 --> 00:17:20,240 formulation of the Wyckoff method. 266 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:26,020 It is not a rigid mechanical system, but rather a school of thought, a logical 267 00:17:26,020 --> 00:17:30,400 framework for market analysis based on judging the market by its own action. 268 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:35,860 The method is founded upon three fundamental laws that govern all price 269 00:17:35,860 --> 00:17:36,860 movement. 270 00:17:37,070 --> 00:17:40,430 The first and most essential is the law of supply and demand. 271 00:17:40,970 --> 00:17:44,310 This is the axiom upon which everything else is built. 272 00:17:44,850 --> 00:17:49,110 When buying demand is greater than selling supply prices must advance. 273 00:17:50,390 --> 00:17:53,690 When supply overcomes demand prices must decline. 274 00:17:55,010 --> 00:18:00,030 When the two forces are in equilibrium prices move sideways in a trading range. 275 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:04,460 The tape readers and chartists' entire purpose is to gauge the present and 276 00:18:04,460 --> 00:18:06,640 future relationship between these two forces. 277 00:18:07,260 --> 00:18:09,660 The second is the law of cause and effect. 278 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:14,140 This law states that for every effect of price movement, there must be a 279 00:18:14,140 --> 00:18:15,140 preceding cause. 280 00:18:16,300 --> 00:18:20,840 The cause is the process of accumulation or distribution within a trading range. 281 00:18:21,260 --> 00:18:24,220 The effect is the subsequent markup or markdown. 282 00:18:25,260 --> 00:18:28,380 The extent of the effect or the size of the price swing. 283 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:31,380 is often in proportion to the extent of the cause. 284 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:36,600 A long period of accumulation, therefore, builds a cause for a 285 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:37,600 advance. 286 00:18:38,380 --> 00:18:43,020 By analyzing the duration and intensity of trading within this cause -building 287 00:18:43,020 --> 00:18:47,380 area, one can often project the probable extent of the coming move. 288 00:18:48,380 --> 00:18:53,120 This transforms speculation from a mere guess into a logical deduction based on 289 00:18:53,120 --> 00:18:54,160 the evidence of preparation. 290 00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:03,820 versus result here effort is represented by the volume of trading while the 291 00:19:03,820 --> 00:19:09,120 result is the price movement that follows harmony between effort and 292 00:19:09,120 --> 00:19:15,140 confirms the trend for instance if trading volume expands significantly on 293 00:19:15,140 --> 00:19:19,600 advance and the price moves up sharply the result is in harmony with the effort 294 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:25,550 and a continuation of the advance can be expected however A divergence between 295 00:19:25,550 --> 00:19:29,710 effort and result is a critical warning sign of a potential change in trend. 296 00:19:30,690 --> 00:19:36,010 If volume is very high, great effort, but the price makes little or no upward 297 00:19:36,010 --> 00:19:41,090 progress, poor result, it indicates that a large supply of stock is meeting the 298 00:19:41,090 --> 00:19:42,690 demand and halting the advance. 299 00:19:43,930 --> 00:19:47,270 This is often a clear signal that a turning point is near. 300 00:19:48,850 --> 00:19:52,650 Conversely, if volume diminishes significantly during a decline and the 301 00:19:52,650 --> 00:19:57,320 stops falling, It shows that the selling pressure effort is drying up and a 302 00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:58,320 rally may be imminent. 303 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:03,420 The practical application of these three laws is found in the analysis of the 304 00:20:03,420 --> 00:20:09,380 four -phased market cycle, accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. 305 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:14,260 During the accumulation phase, the composite man is quietly buying a stock 306 00:20:14,260 --> 00:20:15,460 others are ignoring or selling. 307 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:20,420 This often occurs after a significant decline and is characterized on a chart 308 00:20:20,420 --> 00:20:25,000 a trading range where volume tends to diminish on reactions, indicating that 309 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:26,620 selling pressure is being exhausted. 310 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:32,240 Once the informed interests have acquired their desired line of stock, 311 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:33,320 markup phase begins. 312 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:39,380 The price is actively pushed upward, attracting public buying and often aided 313 00:20:39,380 --> 00:20:41,140 the timed release of bullish news. 314 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:47,180 As the advance continues and public excitement reaches its peak, the stock 315 00:20:47,180 --> 00:20:48,700 enters the distribution phase. 316 00:20:49,500 --> 00:20:53,800 Here the composite man begins to sell the shares he accumulated at lower 317 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,340 to the enthusiastic but uninformed public. 318 00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:01,540 This phase is often marked by heavy volume without significant further 319 00:21:01,540 --> 00:21:06,640 progress, a clear sign of effort without result as large supply absorbs the 320 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:07,640 frenzied demand. 321 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:12,520 Once the stock has been transferred from strong hands to weak hands, it is 322 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:15,580 technically vulnerable, and the markdown phase follows. 323 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:20,120 This is the path of least resistance, downward. 324 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:26,340 The public, having bought near the top, is forced to sell in a panic, adding to 325 00:21:26,340 --> 00:21:28,560 the selling pressure and accelerating the decline. 326 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:33,460 This cycle repeats itself constantly in all time frames. 327 00:21:34,220 --> 00:21:37,620 The Wyckoff students' primary task is to use charts. 328 00:21:38,380 --> 00:21:43,120 both vertical line charts for price and volume and figure charts for measuring 329 00:21:43,120 --> 00:21:44,120 cause. 330 00:21:44,540 --> 00:21:49,780 Not as mechanical predictors, but as visual tools to identify which phase the 331 00:21:49,780 --> 00:21:53,640 market is in and to align his actions with the composite man. 332 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:58,660 Wyckoff's ultimate goal was never to create a legion of disciples who would 333 00:21:58,660 --> 00:22:00,640 blindly follow his personal judgment. 334 00:22:01,140 --> 00:22:05,880 On the contrary, his entire philosophy was built upon the principle of self 335 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:06,880 -reliance. 336 00:22:07,340 --> 00:22:11,580 He consistently maintained that it is better to depend on one's own judgment 337 00:22:11,580 --> 00:22:13,540 than on that of any other person. 338 00:22:14,540 --> 00:22:19,020 The money that does the most good, he believed, is the money made through 339 00:22:19,020 --> 00:22:20,020 own efforts. 340 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:24,840 Therefore, his true legacy is not a list of famous followers but the method 341 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:29,260 itself, a logical, teachable framework that empowers the individual. 342 00:22:30,620 --> 00:22:34,920 He was one of the first to take the chaotic art of tape reading and 343 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:36,180 into a structured science. 344 00:22:36,780 --> 00:22:40,520 His real successors are the thousands of students and readers who have used his 345 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:44,340 principles to move from the ranks of the uninformed public, who are generally 346 00:22:44,340 --> 00:22:48,700 wrong, to the class of astute, independent operators who think for 347 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:51,780 This requires diligent work. 348 00:22:52,540 --> 00:22:56,720 He often lamented that people succeed in business because they study their 349 00:22:56,720 --> 00:23:00,580 mistakes, yet few apply this same rule to their trading. 350 00:23:01,700 --> 00:23:04,460 The study of the market is a serious undertaking. 351 00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:09,220 a business that requires training, capital, and courage. 352 00:23:10,460 --> 00:23:15,500 The principles he laid down are not a guaranteed formula for riches, for no 353 00:23:15,500 --> 00:23:16,500 thing exists. 354 00:23:17,260 --> 00:23:22,120 They are a guide to understanding, a way to substitute knowledge for gambling, 355 00:23:22,300 --> 00:23:26,400 and a means to cultivate the foresight that is the very essence of successful 356 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:27,400 speculation. 357 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:32,580 The market will always be a challenge, a test of one's judgment and self 358 00:23:32,580 --> 00:23:33,580 -control. 359 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:36,580 But it is not an indecipherable mystery. 360 00:23:37,180 --> 00:23:41,540 It speaks a language, and the purpose of Richard Wyckoff's life's work was to 361 00:23:41,540 --> 00:23:44,260 give every persistent student the tools to understand it. 33946

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