Original subtitles

All right, we've got a 15-month-in update.

The 2-Hour Trader framework was released

about 15 months ago. I wanted to share a

quick update going over some of the stats

of the people that have passed through. So

since inception, since the material was

actually recorded and released in the

Traders Think Tank, we have had a little

bit over 500 people pass through the

material. What I found most interesting

about the stats here is that only 68% of

people actually went through all of the

material. So I was going through all the

stats kind of on the back end that I have

here, looking at some of the 2-Hour Trader

kind of back-end information. And yeah,

more than 500 people have purchased the

program. Only 68% completed the material,

which I found alarming and interesting.

And so when I was looking at some of the

actual lessons of people who did not

complete all of it, when I was looking at

what they actually went through, it was

very interesting. People were going

through the introduction, the risk

management, and then jumping through some

of the core lessons and just jumping right

into the real examples of the actual setup

when looking at the actual curriculum, the

2-Hour Trader curriculum. And I recorded

it in a way that you're supposed to go

through it piece by piece, lesson by

lesson. It's only 43 minutes. And so this

was a little bit surprising to actually

see these stats. And so I did make some

changes to the back end. So now the course

material does require you to go from start

to finish. You can't access any of the

prior lessons before actually watching the

one before. And this is actually, if

you're watching this live, I am pushing

this live in the think tank. If you're

watching this live, this is all going to

be recorded and posted as a lesson update.

So pretty interesting there. Now of the

500 plus people, a little more than 500

that have gone through it, I've only had

two people reach out to me and actually

complain about the program. And both of

them were unhappy because they already

knew it. They already knew the material,

which again, something else I found

surprising. Because if I, from my

perspective, if I had purchased something

from someone that I perceived to be, you

know, skilled at XYZ tasks that I wanted

to learn, and they taught me something

that I already knew, I would just see that

as a signal that, okay, what I already

knew is actually maybe even stronger than

what I thought it was. And it would just

give me more confidence in that thing. We

got those people taken care of, you know,

part of the program is, you know, I want

people to be happy with this actual

material. And so, like I said, in the, in

the write-up on the website, if you are

actually unable to be profitable with this

framework over 30 to 60 trading days,

reach out to me and let's jump onto a call

and actually see if you are applying it

correctly. Now, that takes me into the

most frequently asked question that I

actually get about the framework. And that

is how close is close enough to VWAP? So

when we're actually talking about the

signal, how close is close enough? So you

have situations like right through here.

This is obviously going to be an ideal

situation, right? Price is directly

overlapping VWAP. You've got a pretty nice

signal bar right through there, bearish

engulfing with a little bit of a wick

above it. So almost like a shooting star

as well. But as we know, or as you may

soon discover, it does not always unfold

this way. It does not always happen that

way. And one of the quick examples that I

found was actually in ES yesterday. So,

you know, sometimes price is going to

unfold like this and you're going to have

a gap between the actual signal and VWAP.

What do you do in these scenarios? What do

you do in these scenarios? So what we have

to remember here is that the framework is

based off of price actually testing VWAP.

You want to have that signal ideally

overlapping VWAP like we saw with this NQ

setup. This is like a textbook setup and

I'm going to cover this here in a couple

of minutes. But I want to talk about this

frequently asked question here first. What

do you actually do in these scenarios?

What we have to remember is that in these

scenarios, because this is a short setup,

right? So your signal is there. Your entry

ideally is right there. And your target is

down here. Now, when price is far away

from VWAP and we're kind of deciding

whether or not we want to take the trade,

we have to remember that the risk point is

still going to be way up at VWAP. So you

just have to decide, is the risk still

worth it at this particular point? What

you don't want to do is find yourself in

an entry. Like we see right through here,

entering here, and then price ends up

bouncing and you take your stop right

through here. And then it actually

respects VWAP. That is not a good

situation to find yourself in. And that's

not really following the framework because

the framework is based off of how price is

responding to VWAP. Now, if you want to

modify it and kind of say, I'm going to

trade, you know, this lower high as kind

of a market structure play based on

something else, you can do that. But

again, if we're talking about the actual

two-hour trader framework, it's based on

how price responds to VWAP. So any

situation that you have where price is far

away from VWAP. Let's use an extreme

example. Let's say, you know, this is your

signal bar, right? And we're talking about

actually taking a short position there. We

think it's close enough. Our risk point is

now way up here. So you have to consider

that the, and this, you know, because of

the magnitude of this move, this may still

be a favorable to our plus trade. But we

have to consider all of this open risk up

into VWAP. So the risk point is always

VWAP. Obviously, price being closer to

VWAP or even overlapping VWAP is going to

be the ideal scenario. But it's just not

always, it's not always the case. It's not

always the reality of the situation. And

this is part of one of the challenges with

trading is kind of navigating that gray

area. Is, is this going to, in this

scenario, is price actually going to mark

that high right through here and do one of

these? And we're not going to get the real

test of VWAP. What do you do there? Well,

one thing you can do is as price starts to

approach VWAP and you're thinking that

it's getting close enough, this is also

going to depend on your experience level.

But as, as it's getting close, you think

it's close enough, you see a pretty strong

signal, but you still have some upside

risk. You just want to consider, all

right, if I actually put on a trade here,

am I comfortable with the risk point up

into VWAP? Or do I want to just put on

half size because I think this may be the

local high and price is actually going to

start coming back down. So you can go in

with half size to kind of mitigate some

risk just in case it does come back up

into VWAP. And then your game plan would

be to add your second half of your

position right through there. Or you just

enter full right through here and you just

keep your risk point where it should be up

at VWAP. So that, that, that is definitely

the most frequently asked question that I

get about the program. How close is too

close or how close is close enough rather.

And it's really just a function of risk,

right? So remember your risk point for the

two hour trader framework is going to be

VWAP. If you front run it, that does not,

you know, if we're following the framework

and you front run it and you put your stop

right here, you're not really following

the framework anymore. Because price can

very easily just kind of do one of those

and then actually respect VWAP and then

come back down. And now you took your

stop, you're no longer in a position. The

other, some of the other kind of less

frequently asked, but common scenarios,

common questions that I get about the

framework is. When we have scenarios like

this, where price, it tests VWAP and then

comes and retests. Now, this is not going

to be an ideal scenario, right? We don't

really love to see the retest there. We

want these situations where price gives an

immediate move away from VWAP that tells

us that our entry was well-timed. We're in

at the, at the right time. And, you know,

we can start to manage the trade

accordingly. Now, if you, if you find

yourself in a situation where you're short

through here, right? As long as price is

not yet breaking VWAP, the trade is still

valid and the trade is still on. So that,

that's going to be more situational

depending on big picture context and what

we're working with. The other thing to

remember about the two-hour trader

framework is that the purpose of the setup

is to help you position to participate in

some sort of trend move. So if you

identify very choppy conditions on any

index or any stock in play that you're

looking at and you're wanting to trade

VWAP, just remember the trade, the setup

does not work that well. In many cases, it

does not work at all if conditions are

very choppy. So if you just see range

bound conditions and price is just kind of

churning through VWAP, let's take a look

at a recent example here. So we're looking

at ES. This is just a sideways day. And

you'll see some isolated scenarios in here

where VWAP is actually respected. The

intent of the framework is not to position

you in this sort of action. Not at all. So

if you identify this sort of action early

in the session, the suggestion is to

consider different strategies or not trade

or just not trade for that day. Now,

again, you're going to find some isolated

scenarios where it kind of looks decent,

right? Maybe through there, maybe through

here. But caution is definitely warranted

when price action is much choppier. Now,

while we're actually looking at this setup

right through here, there are going to be

some scenarios with the two-hour trader

framework where you see kind of a blip

above VWAP, right? Remember a minute ago

we were talking about proximity to VWAP?

Blip above VWAP and then you start to get

that signal bar. Is that an acceptable

scenario? Absolutely. Absolutely. So long

as the signal bar and what you're looking

at for your entry is actually beneath

VWAP, if we're thinking about short and

not above VWAP, should be good to go.

Should be good to go. Target remains the

same. We're going for the prior session

low. So this is not the cleanest example,

but again, this is just a reality of how

price will unfold during certain times

near VWAP and how the market trades in

real life. We could talk about textbook

situations all day, but there are going to

be scenarios that are just not as clean.

Remember, as a trader, you have a choice

to not trade those scenarios that you

don't see as picture

perfect. So on that note, on the note of a

picture perfect trade, let's actually

review one right through here. We had this

was a 10R short opportunity in NQ

yesterday. And one of the ways to really

start to improve the two-hour trader

framework. Now, remember, let me back up a

second. On its own, standalone, the two

-hour trader framework does have positive

expectancy. It is going to provide you

with a solid edge in the market. If you

really want to sharpen that edge and you

really want to improve the framework, once

you start to kind of master the basics of

what it is that you're looking for within

this framework, what you can do is you can

start to incorporate levels of interest

and reference points. These are going to

add confluence to the actual setup. Now,

looking at this NQ trade from yesterday,

what we see is, number one, there's a lot

of overnight weakness, right? You have a

data print right through there. We have

some weakness off of the open and a pretty

tremendous bounce into VWAP. In addition

to VWAP right there, we have a level of

interest. So I love these scenarios

personally where you have a level of

interest that is overlapping or at the

very least pretty close to where VWAP is.

In these situations, if you can leverage

both a level of interest or a reference

point and VWAP, you're going to have a

much stronger trade opportunity. And you

definitely want to be looking at those

opportunities more closely. So again, we

have a level of interest right through

here. We have VWAP right through there as

well. We have a pretty strong signal bar.

This is the NQ one minute chart. So you

have kind of that bearish and goal thing.

It's a little bit of a shooting star look

right through there. Now, remember on this

trade, on any trade within the two hour

trader framework, the entry requires the

signal bar to close completely. And then

your entry is with confirmation of that

signal bar. And confirmation comes when

price actually trades through the high or

low of the signal bar. So if we're looking

for shorts, it's obviously going to be the

low of the signal bar. If we're looking

for longs, it's obviously going to be the

high of the signal bar. And in this

scenario, you have the low of the signal

bar perfectly aligned with that level of

interest. So it makes it really easy for

us as traders. We just put our limit sell

right through here, say 21099

.5, something like that, like a tick or

two below the 21100 level of interest. And

then as always, the stop goes right up

through here. And our target is way down

here into session lows, right? Now, price

technically never hits that target. Of

course, with a move like this, you know,

you want to be incorporating some sort of

trailing system, which kind of brings me

to my next point about the two hour trader

framework. There's going to be scenarios

where price does not get all the way to

the target, right? It gets close. Maybe it

even gets more than halfway. By the way,

remember that risk when we enter a trade,

if we make no changes to our risk

management approach. Let me clear this

drawing off and bring back a visual here.

There's another question I see about the

framework. So if we have this setup and

our risk point is right up here and our

entry is through here, we're looking at a,

you know, nearly a 10R trade, which means

for every unit of risk, we have 10X

reward. If we see prices now down here,

right? And we've not moved our stop from

right here. What does that do to the R

multiple? What does that do to the risk to

reward of the trade? Well, it makes it

more like this, right? Takes it from a 10R

trade to something that is now less than

2R. So our risk point is becoming larger

and larger. Then remember, as price gets

lower and lower, basically as it does what

you expect it to do, if you, again, if you

make no changes to your risk, you just

keep your risk point static, what happens

to your risk to reward? Now we're kind of

looking like this. So now our risk is

disproportionately larger than our reward.

So the important thing to remember with

not only this trade, but any trade that

you put on within any strategy, as price

moves, your risk profile changes. Risk is

not a static thing. We're dealing with

price that is moving. For every second,

there's new movement. So we get more

information and the risk profile changes.

So typically, my suggestion is, you know,

just as kind of a baseline rule of thumb,

if price is getting, you know, halfway or

more to your target on the two-hour trader

framework, it's typically a good call at

that time to start to move your stop from

a loss and bring it into profit. Right? So

we still can capture this additional

upside. In this case, it's downside, but

upside as far as the expected value of the

trade. And we're not at, we're not putting

ourselves in any risk, right? So if price

comes in, takes our trail, it takes us

out, we miss some additional upside, but

at least we're not going to be taking a

loss on this play. So that is my update on

the two-hour trader. If you guys have been

enjoying the material, let me know. If you

have questions, let me know. Feel free to

reach out. My DMs are always open. If

you're not in the Traders Think Tank, and

you're just purchasing the two-hour trader

framework, and you have questions within

the platform, you can still send me a

direct message. So you don't have to be a

Traders Think Tank member to send me a

message. Feel free to reach out with

questions, or as always, you can email me.

This is going to be posted as a recording

to the two-hour trader material. I'll see

you guys in the next one.