Original subtitles

The small boat speeds across the

Caribbean. It's cargo, fish, or

something more sinister. No one knows,

not even the high-tech American cameras

tracking it. But in a split second, the

order is given. The boat explodes into a

fireball, sending its cargo to the

watery depths along with its crew. Just

another day in the war on drugs. On the

surface, a war between the US and

Venezuela seems unlikely. The two aren't

locked in proxy battles like the US and

Russia over Ukraine's independence. The

US doesn't have any military bases

nearby that are being threatened by

Venezuela like it does with Iran. And

Venezuela doesn't have any weapons of

mass destruction that could be

considered a direct threat. In fact,

Venezuela is almost strategically

irrelevant to the United States, a poor

country that doesn't pose a direct

threat to the US. But this tension has

been building for a long time.

Presidents Donald Trump and Nicolas

Maduro might be in the hot seat, but

this conflict stretches back through

their predecessors several times over.

Relations with Venezuela began their

downward spiral when populist leader

Hugo Chavez took power in 1999. Things

were calm at first, but after the

September 11th attacks and George W.

Bush's invasion of Iraq, relations began

to sour. Chavez became known for his

fiery public denunciations of the United

States, and tensions deepened. Still, he

was popular and democratically elected,

so he rode out the Bush years. Bush's

successor, Barack Obama, was more

interested in mending diplomatic fences.

But when Chavez died in 2013, things

started circling the drain. He was

succeeded by his vice president,

Nicholas Maduro, who proved to lack

Chavez's better qualities. Under him,

Venezuela suffered from serious food and

energy shortages, leading to massive

protests against the far-left

government. Maduro would almost

certainly lose a fair election if he

ever held one. Instead, he claimed

victory several times under suspicious

circumstances, culminating in the 2024

vote, which observers widely condemned

as blatantly stolen. With disscent

crushed at home, he turned outward,

escalating a diplomatic cold war with

the United States, and President Trump

was all too happy to respond in kind. In

recent years, diplomatic disputes with

Venezuela have flared into open

skirmishes, some serious enough to be

considered acts of war. The most famous

was Operation Gideon in 2020 when a

coalition of Venezuelan rebels and a

private security firm attempted to

invade the country, capture Maduro, and

drive him from power. But as impromptu

coups often do, it was riddled with

flaws, and the participants were

captured, including several Americans

who faced trial in Venezuela. Nothing

can precipitate a conflict faster than

citizens being captured. And as of 2025,

the government estimated there were nine

wrongfully detained Americans in

Venezuela. Tourism to the South American

country is minimal, largely because of

government safety warnings and

widespread economic hardship. Most

visitors who do come are there for

business or to visit family. Over the

years, the US and Venezuela have

conducted several prisoner swaps, but

that can encourage more captures,

something the US has found out the hard

way when dealing with Russia. The fuse

has been lit, and no one knows how short

it is. On the surface, America versus

Venezuela isn't much of a match. One has

the most powerful military in the world,

and the other struggles to feed its own

citizens. But Venezuela is one of the

most doggedly anti-American countries in

the Western Hemisphere, and that makes

it a useful tool for powerful enemies.

All of Russia, China, North Korea, and

Iran support Maduro's regime, and have

offered him support to keep his

government afloat. He's also cozied up

to the communist government of Cuba, a

long-term enemy of the United States.

And it might not be a question of if

there will be a conflict, but when. The

US and Venezuela came dangerously close

to a war in 2023 and 2024 after

Venezuela threatened to invade

neighboring Guyana and annex more than

half of its territory. Guyana, a small

nation with close ties to the US and an

economy rich in natural resources, was

seen as being in a situation similar to

Ukraine's, except this time it was in

America's own backyard. The conflict had

been brewing in international courts for

decades as Venezuela laid claim to the

territory since the borders were set in

1899. But when oil reserves were

discovered off of Guyana's coast in the

2010s, it became far more pressing.

Venezuela held a referendum claiming to

show support for annexation, passed a

law claiming the territory, and began

preparing to invade. But in the end,

this was close, but no cigar. Venezuela

was blocked by a coalition of local

governments, including friendly ones

like the left-wing government of Brazil.

Facing a potential military coalition

led by the US, Venezuela dialed back and

heated the International Court of

Justice, which was planning to hold a

trial on the matter. The standoff

remains tense with Venezuela still

claiming the state of Esakibbo, but so

far no shots have been fired, a relief

for many in Guyana. But a far bigger war

may be brewing well away from the

borders of either country. The war on

drugs has been going in earnest since

the 1980s, and the majority of it has

been dedicated to stemming the sale and

use of drugs in the United States. But

in recent years, that has changed. A new

breed of drugs has proven deadlier, with

many samples being tainted. This is

particularly common with fentanyl, a

synthetic opioid more powerful than

heroin, and one infamous for killing

people with a single pill. And as the

scourge spread, people started to ask

where it was coming from. And the answer

increasingly was down south. In April

2020, US federal prosecutors indicted

Maduro on naroterrorism charges relating

to Venezuela's role in the drug trade.

This was a very rare case of the US

government charging a foreign leader

with domestic crimes, similar to the

case against Manuel Noriega of Panama,

which saw the dictator serve time in a

US prison. During the Biden

administration, reports emerged showing

just how close the US and Venezuela had

come to war. Colombia's president

Gustavo Petro even claimed that

President Trump had asked his

predecessor to let the US use Colombia

as an invasion staging ground. Around

the same time, Maduro consolidated power

and came to be seen by international

observers as a full-fledged dictator. By

the time President Trump returned to

office, the Venezuelan problem hadn't

gone away, especially with the drug

crisis still raging. And now things sit

on a razor's edge. In the first months

of the new administration, the US

military presence grew around the world,

and in August 2025, it was the

Caribbean's turn. The president deployed

a heavy presence of gunships and

surveillance planes off Venezuela's

coast. As the US monitored the area for

drug smuggling boats, the belief was

that these vessels were carrying deadly

narcotics bound for US soil, drugs that

could hook countless Americans or kill

them outright, and the security would

operate as the judge, jury, and

executioner. On September 2nd, the White

House announced that the US had carried

out an air strike on a boat leaving

Venezuela, killing 11 people on board.

Officials described the strike as an

anti-drug operation targeting a cartel

vessel, though no concrete evidence was

released to support that claim. Media

outlets quickly raised questions about

whether the target might have been a

civilian craft. Over the next two

months, the US launched 15 additional

strikes, resulting in at least 64

deaths, most in the Caribbean and a few

in the Pacific. And if you talk to

Venezuela, it's an act of war. The US

claims that this is simply an expansion

of the war on drugs. But if you listen

to the Maduro government, the US is

imposing a blockade on the nation. And

that's led Venezuela to step up its own

military preparations, mobilizing its

army and even bringing in civilian

militias to supplement its defenses in

the event of an invasion. According to

Maduro, all of Venezuela is ready to

fight. But do they stand a chance? That

depends on what you mean by a chance. In

the early days of the buildup, Venezuela

became the target of ridicule after

footage of its civilian militia leaked,

including one widely seen clip of a

woman jogging with a rifle during

training. If you look at the tail of the

tape, the United States is the strongest

military in the world. And the

Venezuelan military is underfunded,

underarmed, and relying heavily on

civilian fervor to contend. But this has

happened before when the US seemingly

faced a no- lose scenario, and it turned

into a nightmare. The Vietnam War was a

mismatch as well. But the US quickly

found itself up against a local

resistance that understood the terrain

far better than they did. that allowed

the Vietkong and their allies to take

their homefield advantage and inflict

heavy casualties on the United States.

They couldn't break the United States

militarily, but it could break its

spirit. And the result was a country

looking to disengage and leave without

openly admitting defeat. That's exactly

what happened. And it gave hope to every

other resistance group up against the

United States. Of course, the scrappy

underdogs had a little help. One of the

key elements of the Vietnam War was that

it was a proxy war with North Vietnam

getting heavy support from China and

Russia, then the Soviet Union with both

countries now still staunchly opposed to

the US. That raises the prospect that

they as well as Iran and North Korea

could provide military aid to Venezuela

in the event of a conflict. However,

several factors make it unlikely that

Venezuela could hold out the way Vietnam

did. For one, there would be no military

draft, meaning any public opposition in

the US would probably be far less

intense. And for a number of reasons,

conflict may be inevitable. Venezuela

may not be a direct threat to the US

right now, but that doesn't mean it

isn't strategically important to

Washington. For one thing, it has heavy

oil reserves off its territory. While

Guyana holds many of them, Venezuela's

waters are rich and provide one of the

few economic bright spots for the

country. While not every US intervention

is driven by oil, Venezuela remains a

country of major strategic importance.

Washington has long sought to maintain a

foothold in the region, partly to

counter the growing influence of Russia

and China. And that brings everyone

right back to one of the most infamous

affairs in US military history. The

Cuban missile crisis may be the closest

the world ever came to annihilation as

the Soviet Union planned to place

nuclear missiles in Cuba, just miles

from Florida. The situation eventually

deescalated, but the US has been even

more protective of its sphere of

influence ever since. So, could Russia

or China arm Venezuela in the future,

not just to protect it from the US, but

to expand their influence in the region

and pressure any US-friendly governments

nearby? It's possible. And Maduro might

want this war as much as President Trump

does. Maduro might have consolidated

power after his most recent claimed

election victory. And his military

brutally suppresses any descent, but as

many dictators have found out, superior

forces are no guarantee of long-term

victory in a revolution. So Maduro knows

he needs something for the public to

rally behind. Complicating this, Maduro

is dealing with a reignited rebellion

thanks to the Nobel Prize victory of his

rival, Maria Karina Mashado. She is

believed to be the rightful winner of

the election and is currently under

house arrest in Venezuela. So, if Maduro

needs a distraction, he's not likely to

deescalate, which means both countries

may be on a collision course. It's not

clear if either government will make the

decision to declare war on the other,

but it may be inevitable nonetheless.

Because the United States is engaged in

a highstakes game of attacking

individual vessels that it claims are

participants in the drug trade and the

death toll is mounting. Many critics of

President Trump's foreign policy have

claimed that this isn't a military

operation so much as it's organized

murder by the US military as the

administration hasn't provided any proof

that the targets are actual cartel

members. And each day the chance for

escalation looms. These encounters

happen at high speed on the open seas,

and one wrong move could mean a no going

back moment. US drones are frequently

entering disputed zones and hovering

near Venezuelan airspace. More

worrisome, Venezuela has stepped up its

own military patrols with its aircraft

frequently buzzing US planes. There have

already been several close calls,

incidents that would trigger a

diplomatic crisis even between friendly

nations. Each one requires careful

diplomacy to prevent things from

spiraling out of control. But this time

that may not be possible. The United

States normally has good relations with

the other countries in the region,

allowing them to step in as a neutral

third party to deescalate things, but

that is far less of a certainty than it

used to be. Washington's confrontational

style put it at odds with several of

America's closest allies, including

Mexico. And on the flip side, Maduro has

lost many of his regional allies as

well, with even Brazil's controversial

president Lula Dilva refusing to

recognize his recent claims of an

election victory. And that means if a

conflict happens, the two parties may be

on their own. Normally, some of the

tools used to deescalate conflict

include diplomatic sanctions and UN

resolutions, both of which have been

deployed against Russia in recent years

since the war in Ukraine began. But

Venezuela has been heavily sanctioned

for years and it hasn't deterred Maduro.

As for the United States, many countries

do extensive trade with them and they

can't afford to sanction them. And when

it comes to the UN, any resolution with

teeth has to go through the UN Security

Council where the US holds a veto and

won't let any resolution targeting it

pass, which means we might be getting to

the no going back part of the affairs.

The United States and Venezuela aren't

at war yet, but that may be only because

Venezuela has kept its distance from the

boats being sunk by the US Navy. Are

they drug mules or innocent fishermen?

Venezuela has been slow to comment, but

speculation abounds. And as both

militaries expand their presence in the

Caribbean, the odds grow that one strike

will hit the wrong target. It wouldn't

necessarily change the nature of the

conflict. After all, Trump has long

considered Maduro an active player in

the drug trade, and the Venezuelan

leader remains under indictment. The US

could easily declare the vessel to be a

legitimate target engaged in criminal

activity, and then it would be up to

Venezuela to decide if they wanted to

escalate, but the question might be less

if they would than if they could. The

Venezuelan military's options to target

the US are very limited. But if they

succeed, all bets are off. If the

Venezuelan military shoots down an

American plane or worse, sinks a larger

ship, escalation is almost inevitable.

This goes double if any US service

members are killed in the strike. This

would likely rally support behind a

military intervention. It's likely

Washington would see the US as the

superior military power, able to

neutralize the Venezuelan military and

capture Maduro within days. But that

hasn't worked out before. Anytime a

military enters foreign soil, even for a

limited operation, there are countless X

factors that could turn a small-scale

war into a quagmire. Venezuela is full

of challenging rainforest-like terrain,

calling back to some of the harshest

conditions in Vietnam. The United

States, if it launches a ground

operation, could find itself taking

heavy casualties before it even reaches

the dense urban centers of Karacas. Of

course, they could take another approach

and just go for air strikes to try to

target Maduro. Although, as they found

out with Osama bin Laden, for a decade,

that can be a hit-and- miss affair. War

is unpredictable, and while many hawks

in the US government might see a

Venezuelan regime change operation as a

quick and easy war, it might turn out

exactly the opposite. Venezuela might be

light on military strength, but it has a

dictator with a cult of personality who

can harness anti-US sentiment to rally

the public and fight bitterly. And it

has several powerful allies who would

likely be more than happy to provide

military support in the hopes of dealing

a humiliating and public defeat to the

world's only remaining superpower. And

the result could be war coming to the

Western Hemisphere like it hasn't in

decades. Aside from a few minor regional

conflicts, the Americas have remained

largely peaceful for half a century. Not

since the Cuban missile crisis and the

Bay of Pigs has there been a serious

risk of a large-scale war in the Western

Hemisphere. Past skirmishes like the US

intervention in Granada stayed limited

in scope. But in the Venezuela conflict,

there are two leaders with a

long-standing grudge, a desire for

victory, and absolutely no desire to

deescalate. And the result could not

only set the Caribbean on fire, but see

the flames spread across the whole

region. Tensions between the US and

Venezuela are heating up. But to

understand why, you have to know how

Venezuela collapsed in the first place.

Watch what actually went wrong with

Venezuela to see how it all fell apart.

Or click on this video instead.