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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:01,942 --> 00:00:03,810 After decades of study, 2 00:00:03,811 --> 00:00:06,075 it's become clear that the moon 3 00:00:06,076 --> 00:00:08,661 offers a wealth of valuable resources 4 00:00:08,662 --> 00:00:11,592 from water that can be converted to rocket fuel 5 00:00:11,593 --> 00:00:14,370 to precious metals, rare earth elements, 6 00:00:14,371 --> 00:00:18,248 and more exotic materials such as helium-3, 7 00:00:18,249 --> 00:00:20,027 which could be a major ingredient 8 00:00:20,028 --> 00:00:23,573 in the fusion power of the future. 9 00:00:23,574 --> 00:00:26,274 They all add up to the creation of a new 10 00:00:26,275 --> 00:00:29,256 and lucrative industrial revolution, 11 00:00:29,257 --> 00:00:33,967 a revolution that some say will eventually and inevitably 12 00:00:33,968 --> 00:00:37,807 lead to the colonization of our nearest neighbor. 13 00:00:37,808 --> 00:00:40,558 (dramatic music) 14 00:00:49,178 --> 00:00:51,852 But that journey of discovery and development 15 00:00:51,853 --> 00:00:53,913 is expected to be a long one, 16 00:00:53,914 --> 00:00:57,843 measured in many decades rather than a few years 17 00:00:57,844 --> 00:00:59,430 and in the moon business, 18 00:00:59,431 --> 00:01:02,860 every step of the way will follow a detailed plan 19 00:01:02,861 --> 00:01:06,611 known as the lunar exploration roadmap. 20 00:01:06,612 --> 00:01:09,708 From its inception, the roadmap was designed 21 00:01:09,709 --> 00:01:14,060 to be incremental, cumulative, and affordable. 22 00:01:14,061 --> 00:01:16,801 {\an8}So what we decided was the way to do this is to 23 00:01:16,802 --> 00:01:19,169 {\an8}take advantage of one of the biggest attributes of the moon 24 00:01:19,170 --> 00:01:21,229 {\an8}and that is that the moon is close. 25 00:01:21,230 --> 00:01:22,932 It's only a quarter of a million miles away, 26 00:01:22,933 --> 00:01:24,877 400,000 kilometers. 27 00:01:24,878 --> 00:01:27,002 Round trip radio time is three seconds. 28 00:01:27,003 --> 00:01:30,074 So if I execute a command for a machine on the moon, 29 00:01:30,075 --> 00:01:31,329 I'll see the reaction to that 30 00:01:31,330 --> 00:01:33,415 three seconds after I give the command. 31 00:01:33,416 --> 00:01:35,834 That's almost near real time. 32 00:01:35,835 --> 00:01:40,002 So our big idea is to send a swarm of different robots 33 00:01:41,134 --> 00:01:43,556 all with different functions to the poles of the moon 34 00:01:43,557 --> 00:01:47,588 and let them begin the task of preparing the moon 35 00:01:47,589 --> 00:01:51,659 for habitation and to start mining the water ice. 36 00:01:51,660 --> 00:01:54,989 So the first missions go and prospect the moon. 37 00:01:54,990 --> 00:01:57,997 I want to know where the highest grade water deposits are, 38 00:01:57,998 --> 00:01:59,341 I want to know where the near permanent 39 00:01:59,342 --> 00:02:01,005 sunlight regions are. 40 00:02:01,006 --> 00:02:03,680 Those are the zones where I'm going to set up my equipment, 41 00:02:03,681 --> 00:02:06,829 those are the zones where I'm going to put down my outpost. 42 00:02:06,830 --> 00:02:10,426 Each robot will be operated by an operator on the other. 43 00:02:10,427 --> 00:02:13,383 They'll be teleoperated, they won't be autonomous. 44 00:02:13,384 --> 00:02:15,661 These operators will steer the machines, 45 00:02:15,662 --> 00:02:17,926 they'll lead them into the areas where they're gonna work 46 00:02:17,927 --> 00:02:21,101 and they will supervise the work through remote control. 47 00:02:21,102 --> 00:02:23,998 So over time, we build up more and more 48 00:02:23,999 --> 00:02:25,999 of these robotic assets. 49 00:02:26,864 --> 00:02:30,796 In our architecture, we plan to send two missions per year. 50 00:02:30,797 --> 00:02:35,089 So we're landing two robotic assets at the poles every year. 51 00:02:35,090 --> 00:02:36,766 By the time we get to year eight, 52 00:02:36,767 --> 00:02:40,887 we have largely have a completely up and running system 53 00:02:40,888 --> 00:02:43,114 that's harvesting water probably at a rate 54 00:02:43,115 --> 00:02:45,457 of about 100 metric tons per year. 55 00:02:45,458 --> 00:02:48,631 It's not very much, but that's enough to make the fuel 56 00:02:48,632 --> 00:02:50,359 that would allow you to go to and from 57 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:52,842 the lunar surface with a lander. 58 00:02:52,843 --> 00:02:54,430 Every year we're adding assets, 59 00:02:54,431 --> 00:02:57,834 every year we're increasing the amount of water we produce. 60 00:02:57,835 --> 00:03:00,114 At one point, we send the habitat, 61 00:03:00,115 --> 00:03:02,782 the robots assemble that, they install it, 62 00:03:02,783 --> 00:03:06,148 they put the pieces together, they run power to it 63 00:03:06,149 --> 00:03:09,105 and then finally ready to receive people 64 00:03:09,106 --> 00:03:11,064 and I think our first arrival of people 65 00:03:11,065 --> 00:03:14,547 comes about nine years after the robots have started work. 66 00:03:14,548 --> 00:03:17,196 They will initially stay for only a few days 67 00:03:17,197 --> 00:03:18,566 just to make sure everything's running 68 00:03:18,567 --> 00:03:23,545 and plant the flag and pet the robots on the back, 69 00:03:23,546 --> 00:03:25,363 tell them to keep up the good work 70 00:03:25,364 --> 00:03:27,439 and then but eventually our goal 71 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:30,280 is to have rotating crews of four 72 00:03:30,281 --> 00:03:33,672 that come twice a year and stay for 90 days each. 73 00:03:33,673 --> 00:03:35,491 Dr. Spudis calculates that 74 00:03:35,492 --> 00:03:39,779 the break-even point for his plan comes at year 16 75 00:03:39,780 --> 00:03:44,362 when his plant is generating over 150 tons of water, 76 00:03:44,363 --> 00:03:47,510 which in turn is being converted to liquid hydrogen 77 00:03:47,511 --> 00:03:50,301 and liquid oxygen for rocket fuel. 78 00:03:50,302 --> 00:03:53,642 But many international moon watchers suspect 79 00:03:53,643 --> 00:03:56,509 that by that time, other outposts will also 80 00:03:56,510 --> 00:03:59,658 have been established across the moon. 81 00:03:59,659 --> 00:04:03,498 A number of spacefaring nations have made it clear 82 00:04:03,499 --> 00:04:07,709 that they intend to plant their own boots on the moon. 83 00:04:07,710 --> 00:04:10,832 The Chinese, the Russians, and the Europeans 84 00:04:10,833 --> 00:04:13,981 all have well-developed proposals for settling there, 85 00:04:13,982 --> 00:04:16,707 all employing their own distinctive approach 86 00:04:16,708 --> 00:04:19,357 to habitat construction. 87 00:04:19,358 --> 00:04:22,365 One of the most imaginative has been suggested 88 00:04:22,366 --> 00:04:25,322 by the European Space Agency 89 00:04:25,323 --> 00:04:27,907 targeted on the moon's south pole. 90 00:04:27,908 --> 00:04:30,480 The plan calls for two relatively new 91 00:04:30,481 --> 00:04:32,810 technologies to work together, 92 00:04:32,811 --> 00:04:36,880 autonomous robotics combined with 3D printing. 93 00:04:36,881 --> 00:04:39,760 The habitat is contained within a cylinder, 94 00:04:39,761 --> 00:04:43,783 which will be positioned on the lunar surface. 95 00:04:43,784 --> 00:04:46,906 Inside the cylinder is an inflatable dome 96 00:04:46,907 --> 00:04:51,074 that will form the internal scaffolding of the habitat. 97 00:04:52,398 --> 00:04:55,789 Two robotic printing machines will set to work 98 00:04:55,790 --> 00:04:59,957 covering the inflated dome with lunar dust or regolith. 99 00:05:00,949 --> 00:05:03,048 As they work, the 3D printing head 100 00:05:03,049 --> 00:05:06,197 will stabilize the regolith with resin, 101 00:05:06,198 --> 00:05:09,602 creating a honeycomb of rigid membranes that resemble 102 00:05:09,603 --> 00:05:13,686 the internal structure of bone, light but strong. 103 00:05:15,029 --> 00:05:18,958 The whole process is expected to take about three months 104 00:05:18,959 --> 00:05:21,890 by the tend of which time the dome will be covered 105 00:05:21,891 --> 00:05:24,782 in two meters of bonded regolith, 106 00:05:24,783 --> 00:05:26,318 which will protect the inhabitants 107 00:05:26,319 --> 00:05:29,275 from meteoroids and radiation. 108 00:05:29,276 --> 00:05:31,106 While maintaining a breathable, 109 00:05:31,107 --> 00:05:33,704 temperature-controlled atmosphere, 110 00:05:33,705 --> 00:05:36,930 the cylinder which contained the inflatable habitat 111 00:05:36,931 --> 00:05:40,258 now acts as the airlock for which the astronauts 112 00:05:40,259 --> 00:05:43,432 can come and go as they please. 113 00:05:43,433 --> 00:05:45,659 Eventually, a number of these habitats 114 00:05:45,660 --> 00:05:48,334 can be constructed and linked together, 115 00:05:48,335 --> 00:05:52,405 creating what has been described as a lunar village. 116 00:05:52,406 --> 00:05:54,696 The idea of using lunar regolith 117 00:05:54,697 --> 00:05:56,386 to shield and protect habitats 118 00:05:56,387 --> 00:05:59,739 from the harsh lunar environment is not new. 119 00:05:59,740 --> 00:06:02,773 Engineers and architects created detailed plans 120 00:06:02,774 --> 00:06:07,061 in the 1980s to demonstrate the principle. 121 00:06:07,062 --> 00:06:09,096 The problem they faced, however, 122 00:06:09,097 --> 00:06:11,323 was that the technologies didn't exist 123 00:06:11,324 --> 00:06:14,165 to achieve their ambitious plans 124 00:06:14,166 --> 00:06:15,611 although they did know, 125 00:06:15,612 --> 00:06:18,658 thanks to the material brought back by Apollo, 126 00:06:18,659 --> 00:06:21,000 that lunar regolith just might turn out 127 00:06:21,001 --> 00:06:24,341 to be a rather useful building material. 128 00:06:24,342 --> 00:06:26,824 There were experiments done in the 1980s 129 00:06:26,825 --> 00:06:31,112 where people took lunar material and microwaved it 130 00:06:31,113 --> 00:06:34,312 and it actually forms a very nice cinder material, 131 00:06:34,313 --> 00:06:36,771 very nice ceramic kind of aggregate. 132 00:06:36,772 --> 00:06:38,588 Another person took a lunar material 133 00:06:38,589 --> 00:06:40,291 and made concrete out of it. 134 00:06:40,292 --> 00:06:42,288 He added earth water to lunar soil 135 00:06:42,289 --> 00:06:45,500 and actually made concrete and it held up very well, 136 00:06:45,501 --> 00:06:48,892 very fine grain, very good concrete. 137 00:06:48,893 --> 00:06:51,939 So there have been experiments with it, 138 00:06:51,940 --> 00:06:54,640 but of course no one has built anything with it on the moon. 139 00:06:54,641 --> 00:06:56,700 So that's the simplest kind of product 140 00:06:56,701 --> 00:06:58,851 you might get from the moon. 141 00:06:58,852 --> 00:07:01,219 But simple, homegrown concrete 142 00:07:01,220 --> 00:07:05,387 is far from being the only valuable resource on the moon. 143 00:07:06,621 --> 00:07:10,742 Surveys have shown that moon dust is rich in platinum, 144 00:07:10,743 --> 00:07:13,993 titanium, gold, and rare earth elements 145 00:07:14,938 --> 00:07:17,860 crucial to the semiconductor industry. 146 00:07:17,861 --> 00:07:21,879 Initial analysis suggests that many of these products 147 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:23,991 exist in concentrations that would make 148 00:07:23,992 --> 00:07:26,078 extracting them from the moon 149 00:07:26,079 --> 00:07:30,596 to be at least as profitable as mining them on Earth, 150 00:07:30,597 --> 00:07:33,668 but there's one substance that moon dust contains 151 00:07:33,669 --> 00:07:36,561 that can't easily be found on Earth. 152 00:07:36,562 --> 00:07:38,737 It's thought to be a possible key 153 00:07:38,738 --> 00:07:42,359 to fueling future nuclear fusion reactors 154 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:46,527 and it's a rare isotope of helium known as helium-3. 155 00:07:48,491 --> 00:07:51,434 Valued at over three billion a ton, 156 00:07:51,435 --> 00:07:55,594 it's the most costly substance known to man. 157 00:07:55,595 --> 00:07:58,436 Just 100 kilos of helium-3 158 00:07:58,437 --> 00:08:01,559 could power a major city for over a year, 159 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:04,055 which is why multi-national corporations 160 00:08:04,056 --> 00:08:07,178 as well as nations are studying the viability 161 00:08:07,179 --> 00:08:11,063 of setting up their own outposts on the moon. 162 00:08:11,064 --> 00:08:13,150 So this has been looked at in some detail 163 00:08:13,151 --> 00:08:17,156 and it's not totally crazy, it can be done. 164 00:08:17,157 --> 00:08:19,870 It's estimated that the amount of helium-3 165 00:08:19,871 --> 00:08:21,930 that would fill a shuttle cargo bay, 166 00:08:21,931 --> 00:08:24,874 which is about 20 metric tons, 167 00:08:24,875 --> 00:08:28,138 would provide the entire energy consumption 168 00:08:28,139 --> 00:08:30,263 of the United States for one year. 169 00:08:30,264 --> 00:08:34,602 So helium-3 is potentially a source of fuel to generate 170 00:08:34,603 --> 00:08:38,508 commercial electrical power sometime in the future 171 00:08:38,509 --> 00:08:41,093 after all these engineering problems are solved, 172 00:08:41,094 --> 00:08:42,680 but they're not solved yet. 173 00:08:42,681 --> 00:08:43,832 So these are some of the things 174 00:08:43,833 --> 00:08:46,175 you can imagine coming from the moon. 175 00:08:46,176 --> 00:08:48,376 Water is the first thing because it's the easiest 176 00:08:48,377 --> 00:08:50,156 and it's initially the most valuable, 177 00:08:50,157 --> 00:08:51,884 but a wide variety of other products 178 00:08:51,885 --> 00:08:54,968 can be made from the moon as well. 179 00:08:54,969 --> 00:08:58,092 The two-decade long lunar exploration roadmap 180 00:08:58,093 --> 00:09:00,426 is ambitious, yet practical, 181 00:09:01,305 --> 00:09:04,837 visionary, yet carefully pedestrian. 182 00:09:04,838 --> 00:09:07,768 It requires the slow, incremental development 183 00:09:07,769 --> 00:09:10,994 of capabilities on the moon, much of it benefiting 184 00:09:10,995 --> 00:09:14,258 from evolving 21st century technologies 185 00:09:14,259 --> 00:09:19,109 such as semi-autonomous robotics and 3D construction. 186 00:09:19,110 --> 00:09:21,144 It also involves a bold view 187 00:09:21,145 --> 00:09:24,293 of humanity's place in the cosmos. 188 00:09:24,294 --> 00:09:26,290 Two or three decades from now, 189 00:09:26,291 --> 00:09:29,938 space may be buzzing with activity. 190 00:09:29,939 --> 00:09:32,536 So what do you have at the end of this time? 191 00:09:32,537 --> 00:09:34,981 You have a working outpost on the moon 192 00:09:34,982 --> 00:09:37,580 that's largely operated by machines 193 00:09:37,581 --> 00:09:39,748 controlled from the earth, 194 00:09:40,870 --> 00:09:44,261 you have permanent transportation elements 195 00:09:44,262 --> 00:09:45,823 that are going back and forth, 196 00:09:45,824 --> 00:09:47,308 the transfer ship is going from 197 00:09:47,309 --> 00:09:50,124 low lunar orbit to low earth orbit, 198 00:09:50,125 --> 00:09:52,261 the other rockets are carrying crews 199 00:09:52,262 --> 00:09:54,412 to and from the space station, 200 00:09:54,413 --> 00:09:56,972 they're transferring, they're going up to low lunar orbit, 201 00:09:56,973 --> 00:09:57,894 they're transferring to land 202 00:09:57,895 --> 00:10:00,146 or they're going down to the surface. 203 00:10:00,147 --> 00:10:02,821 All of those different activities are supported 204 00:10:02,822 --> 00:10:04,882 because I now have a transportation system 205 00:10:04,883 --> 00:10:07,314 that can get people and cargo and machines 206 00:10:07,315 --> 00:10:09,065 wherever I need them. 207 00:10:12,294 --> 00:10:14,520 All this works in theory. 208 00:10:14,521 --> 00:10:16,287 It works on paper. 209 00:10:16,288 --> 00:10:17,810 But no one's ever done it. 210 00:10:17,811 --> 00:10:19,718 No one's ever built a big system, 211 00:10:19,719 --> 00:10:21,754 a system from small robotic elements. 212 00:10:21,755 --> 00:10:24,122 Nobody's ever extracted water 213 00:10:24,123 --> 00:10:25,632 from extraterrestrial materials 214 00:10:25,633 --> 00:10:28,218 and then used it in some application. 215 00:10:28,219 --> 00:10:30,112 Nobody has ever put together 216 00:10:30,113 --> 00:10:31,699 an outpost on a planetary service 217 00:10:31,700 --> 00:10:35,322 using robotic machines controlled from somewhere else. 218 00:10:35,323 --> 00:10:38,330 Yeah, it all works in theory, but does it work in practice 219 00:10:38,331 --> 00:10:40,838 and if it does work in practice, what are the pitfalls, 220 00:10:40,839 --> 00:10:42,234 what are the problems, 221 00:10:42,235 --> 00:10:45,402 what big difficulty have we overlooked 222 00:10:46,612 --> 00:10:47,573 because there's no doubt in my mind 223 00:10:47,574 --> 00:10:50,158 that we have overlooked some difficulty 224 00:10:50,159 --> 00:10:52,052 and that's why you need to have NASA do that 225 00:10:52,053 --> 00:10:53,921 because that's what NASA's in business for. 226 00:10:53,922 --> 00:10:55,124 They are in business to do 227 00:10:55,125 --> 00:10:57,262 engineering research and development 228 00:10:57,263 --> 00:10:59,771 and this is an engineering R and D project. 229 00:10:59,772 --> 00:11:03,150 You're going back to the moon, not to mine the moon, 230 00:11:03,151 --> 00:11:06,017 but to determine if the moon can be mined. 231 00:11:06,018 --> 00:11:09,499 On July 21st, 2069, 232 00:11:09,500 --> 00:11:13,006 it will be exactly 100 years since Neil Armstrong 233 00:11:13,007 --> 00:11:16,219 became the first human to set foot on the moon. 234 00:11:16,220 --> 00:11:19,387 {\an8}That's one step for man, 235 00:11:21,379 --> 00:11:24,004 {\an8}one giant leap for mankind. 236 00:11:24,005 --> 00:11:26,538 {\an8}And by 2069, 237 00:11:26,539 --> 00:11:28,356 if the lunar exploration roadmap 238 00:11:28,357 --> 00:11:30,391 plays out according to plan, 239 00:11:30,392 --> 00:11:32,900 mankind will have returned to the moon 240 00:11:32,901 --> 00:11:35,460 and will have been developing its potential 241 00:11:35,461 --> 00:11:37,904 as a source of water, rocket fuel, 242 00:11:37,905 --> 00:11:41,238 metals, rare earth minerals and helium-3 243 00:11:42,142 --> 00:11:43,975 for over four decades. 244 00:11:44,984 --> 00:11:47,210 The population on the moon will have grown 245 00:11:47,211 --> 00:11:50,704 to include not only astronauts and engineers, 246 00:11:50,705 --> 00:11:54,205 but doctors, managers, farmers, and chefs. 247 00:11:55,582 --> 00:11:59,562 People will be choosing to live permanently on the moon, 248 00:11:59,563 --> 00:12:03,735 a crucial milestone in Dr. Spudis' opinion. 249 00:12:03,736 --> 00:12:05,975 That's when the lunar outpost becomes a colony, 250 00:12:05,976 --> 00:12:09,866 when you have inhabitants that live there by choice forever. 251 00:12:09,867 --> 00:12:12,068 Now at what point might that be? 252 00:12:12,069 --> 00:12:14,973 Well I would think that it would probably be at a point 253 00:12:14,974 --> 00:12:17,725 where you've got a significant number of people involved 254 00:12:17,726 --> 00:12:20,285 doing a wide variety of different activities 255 00:12:20,286 --> 00:12:22,869 and you are exporting a product 256 00:12:23,932 --> 00:12:25,932 that's actually making money. 257 00:12:25,933 --> 00:12:29,107 If you have a foothold on the moon 258 00:12:29,108 --> 00:12:31,193 and you for example you're mining water 259 00:12:31,194 --> 00:12:33,228 and you have a company that has the rights 260 00:12:33,229 --> 00:12:35,951 to export that and sell that product 261 00:12:35,952 --> 00:12:38,836 to various users in cislunar space, 262 00:12:38,837 --> 00:12:40,961 then you may decide well I'll just stay here 263 00:12:40,962 --> 00:12:43,572 to make sure that my operation runs smoothly. 264 00:12:43,573 --> 00:12:44,865 Is that a colonist? 265 00:12:44,866 --> 00:12:47,066 I would argue that you are 266 00:12:47,067 --> 00:12:49,153 because effectively you decided 267 00:12:49,154 --> 00:12:52,468 for reasons that are perfectly understandable 268 00:12:52,469 --> 00:12:54,695 that you need to live on the moon. 269 00:12:54,696 --> 00:12:55,732 You need to be there to make sure 270 00:12:55,733 --> 00:12:57,588 your business operates correctly. 271 00:12:57,589 --> 00:12:59,150 So you're a colonist. 272 00:12:59,151 --> 00:13:02,721 So the transition from an outpost to a base. 273 00:13:02,722 --> 00:13:04,526 A base is just a big outpost, 274 00:13:04,527 --> 00:13:07,496 these things are very flexible definitions. 275 00:13:07,497 --> 00:13:09,391 But a colony implies permanence. 276 00:13:09,392 --> 00:13:11,029 It implies that you're going to live there. 277 00:13:11,030 --> 00:13:15,018 It implies perhaps your family will live there with you. 278 00:13:15,019 --> 00:13:17,436 That may be sometime off yet. 279 00:13:18,865 --> 00:13:20,848 And what of the possible pitfalls 280 00:13:20,849 --> 00:13:24,074 that Dr. Spudis expects to encounter? 281 00:13:24,075 --> 00:13:26,698 Some would argue that the sheer hostility 282 00:13:26,699 --> 00:13:29,091 of the moon's environment combined with 283 00:13:29,092 --> 00:13:33,238 its fractional gravity, barely 1/6 of Earth's, 284 00:13:33,239 --> 00:13:35,504 are hazards that can't be ignored 285 00:13:35,505 --> 00:13:39,672 if people are to survive and thrive on tomorrow's moon. 286 00:13:40,574 --> 00:13:43,324 (dramatic music) 22884

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