All language subtitles for 5. Volume Profile Components
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Now we will look at all the levels that
make up a volume profile.
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00:00:04,100 --> 00:00:08,820
Later, we will see that there are
different types of profiles, but for
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00:00:08,820 --> 00:00:12,460
will focus on identifying the key levels
that can be found in each of them.
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00:00:13,180 --> 00:00:17,740
The real -world example has the shape of
a normal distribution, where the values
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00:00:17,740 --> 00:00:20,140
are distributed above and below the
central point.
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00:00:20,500 --> 00:00:25,080
The data is organized using a vertical
axis where the price is located and a
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00:00:25,080 --> 00:00:27,500
horizontal axis that represents the
volume variable.
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00:00:28,300 --> 00:00:34,380
The value area is defined between the
Value Area High and the Value Area Low
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00:00:34,380 --> 00:00:40,960
is part of the first standard deviation
and represents exactly 68 .2 % of the
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total volume traded in this profile.
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00:00:43,060 --> 00:00:47,780
It is the most traded area of the
profile and is therefore considered the
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00:00:47,780 --> 00:00:48,780
acceptance area.
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00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:54,060
The volume traded outside the value area
is the remaining 31 .8%.
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00:00:54,620 --> 00:00:58,520
It is the least traded area of the
profile and is therefore considered a
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00:00:58,520 --> 00:00:59,520
rejection area.
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00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:04,140
The high and low levels of the value
area, the value area high and value area
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00:01:04,140 --> 00:01:10,260
low, act and will act as support and
resistance areas, exerting a rejection
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00:01:10,260 --> 00:01:12,760
the price when the interaction occurs at
these levels.
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As we have already mentioned, this
rejection can manifest itself in two
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00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:21,620
with a rapid price reversal or with a
rapid movement above it.
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00:01:22,380 --> 00:01:26,300
An important aspect to assess about the
value area is its breadth.
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00:01:26,540 --> 00:01:30,340
The breadth of the value area gives us
clues about market conditions.
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A wide value area indicates that there
is a large participation of all traders.
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00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:38,460
Everyone is buying and selling at the
prices they want.
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This will be evidenced as a fairly wide
price range or sideways, while a
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00:01:43,960 --> 00:01:48,500
shortened value area is a sign of very
tight valuations among all participants,
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leaving a fairly narrow range.
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This is important to keep in mind
because there is generally an inverse
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00:01:54,500 --> 00:01:58,920
relationship between the width of the
value area and the duration of the
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00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:03,940
In other words, when a lateralization
has a relatively narrow value area, it
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00:02:03,940 --> 00:02:07,780
usually a price consolidation that will
not last long before generating the
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00:02:07,780 --> 00:02:08,780
subsequent imbalance.
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00:02:08,979 --> 00:02:14,300
On the other hand, if we observe a
relatively wide value area, it is a sign
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00:02:14,300 --> 00:02:18,160
warns us that the duration of this
structure is likely to be longer before
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00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:19,160
trend movement develops.
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00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:23,860
For the examples shown on the slide, we
have used representations of
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00:02:23,860 --> 00:02:28,400
reaccumulation structures, but of
course, this concept applies to all
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00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:33,000
lateralizations, regardless of the
prevailing trend direction and the
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00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:35,040
subsequent bullish or bearish effect.
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00:02:36,020 --> 00:02:40,180
Let us look at the chart of Bitcoin to
observe the application of this concept.
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00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:45,220
As we can see, the value areas with a
narrower range are marked in green.
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00:02:45,710 --> 00:02:49,490
and it is confirmed that the duration of
such structures is relatively short.
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That is, the price spent little time
creating the cause before breaking in
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00:02:54,350 --> 00:02:55,350
direction of the trend.
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00:02:55,650 --> 00:03:00,930
On the other hand, the remaining
lateralizations marked in red have a
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00:03:00,930 --> 00:03:02,050
with a larger amplitude.
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00:03:02,770 --> 00:03:07,690
As we can see, these correspond to a
longer period of time before generating
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00:03:07,690 --> 00:03:10,870
final imbalance that gives rise to the
subsequent trend movement.
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00:03:11,490 --> 00:03:16,300
The final reading that this concept
leaves us is that when we see a
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00:03:16,300 --> 00:03:21,200
with a relatively narrow value area, we
must be very vigilant because there is a
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00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:25,600
high probability that the imbalance will
occur with some speed and that when we
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00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:30,440
see a relatively wide area, the most
likely thing to do is wait and see that
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00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:32,800
some time passes to build up this cause.
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00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:39,320
The volume traded outside the value area
comprises the remaining 31 .8%.
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00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:43,520
and includes the other two positive and
negative deviations of the total
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00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:44,520
distribution.
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This part of the profile is observed
with a decrease in volume traded from
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00:03:49,420 --> 00:03:53,320
boundary of the value area to the high
or low of the extreme.
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00:03:53,860 --> 00:03:59,160
These extreme zones are particularly
useful to look for potential supply
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00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:04,320
inflection points above them that
generate abrupt price gyrations. On the
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00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:09,030
hand, the high and low prices of each
profile are of course key levels that we
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00:04:09,030 --> 00:04:10,870
should all keep in mind when trading.
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As we know, these are points of
imbalance between supply and demand
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00:04:16,230 --> 00:04:20,550
they occur, create a price reversal and
establish potential liquidity zones.
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00:04:21,490 --> 00:04:25,750
These extreme zones are the least traded
in the profile and are therefore
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00:04:25,750 --> 00:04:28,450
considered areas of rejection or unfair
pricing.
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00:04:28,890 --> 00:04:32,310
These are price levels that have not
generated enough interest among
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00:04:32,310 --> 00:04:34,450
participants to trade contracts there.
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00:04:34,750 --> 00:04:39,150
And based on repetitive market behavior,
Just as areas of acceptance or
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00:04:39,150 --> 00:04:44,330
equilibrium have a certain magnetism on
price, these rejection areas will also
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00:04:44,330 --> 00:04:48,270
generate lack of interest in the future
when price interacts with them again.
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00:04:48,890 --> 00:04:53,590
In this example, we have drawn a manual
profile that includes all the price
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00:04:53,590 --> 00:04:55,030
action captured on the chart.
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00:04:55,370 --> 00:05:00,530
We see that a high and a low are set and
then a price rotation within these
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00:05:00,530 --> 00:05:05,620
limits. As we have already determined,
any price movement up to these limits is
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00:05:05,620 --> 00:05:06,820
expected to be rejected.
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00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:12,500
And that is exactly what happens. The
market reaches the upper extreme zone
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00:05:12,500 --> 00:05:16,800
generates a lack of sufficient interest,
which causes a tipping point in favor
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00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:21,580
of the sellers, creating the bearish
turn, and likewise, the move to the lows
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00:05:21,580 --> 00:05:25,620
seen as an unfair price, and the lack of
interest of the sellers along with the
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00:05:25,620 --> 00:05:28,000
buying initiative creates the turn to
the upside.
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00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:34,200
Subsequently, This repetitive behavior
of the market continues to show. In this
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00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:38,680
case, we threw a new profile including
the last movements towards the extremes
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00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:43,120
that we have just seen and also still
observed in the profile the lack of
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00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:47,100
interest with the decrease in volume
represented with the horizontal
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00:05:47,660 --> 00:05:51,920
There were still two new movements
towards the lows, which again generated
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00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:55,960
rejection of these price levels, causing
the bullish reversal on both occasions.
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00:05:56,650 --> 00:06:00,410
The good identification of these zones
helps us to know objectively when the
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00:06:00,410 --> 00:06:05,390
price reaches an overbought or oversold
zone in this volume profile, and
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00:06:05,390 --> 00:06:09,710
therefore when to expect a potential
reversal to the opposite side once the
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00:06:09,710 --> 00:06:10,890
price reaches this zone.
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00:06:11,590 --> 00:06:16,210
In addition to identifying the zones
where the market is likely to turn, the
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00:06:16,210 --> 00:06:20,070
volume is distributed at these extremes
can also be relevant to identifying
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00:06:20,070 --> 00:06:21,910
finished or unfinished auctions.
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00:06:22,550 --> 00:06:26,510
In the unfinished auction, there is no
gradual decrease in volume.
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00:06:27,070 --> 00:06:31,910
Sometimes, the end is even left as a
high trading zone, which implicitly
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00:06:31,910 --> 00:06:33,790
represents that there was interest
there.
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00:06:34,190 --> 00:06:38,430
And if there was interest to trade in a
zone, it is very likely that the price
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00:06:38,430 --> 00:06:42,330
will return to that zone in the future
to test if there is still such interest.
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00:06:43,070 --> 00:06:47,770
On that subsequent visit, the price will
evaluate the real intent in that area.
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00:06:48,110 --> 00:06:51,290
At this point, one of two scenarios can
occur.
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00:06:51,840 --> 00:06:55,120
Either there is no interest in trading
there and the price confirms the
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00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:59,300
rejection and turns around, or there is
still interest in trading at these
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00:06:59,300 --> 00:07:02,120
levels and the price continues to move
in the same direction.
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00:07:02,500 --> 00:07:06,960
On the other hand, if we observe a
gradual decrease in volume towards the
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00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:09,660
extreme, we determine that the auction
is over.
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00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:13,760
This means that the participant's
interest in continuing to move in that
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00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:15,360
direction has gradually disappeared.
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00:07:15,940 --> 00:07:19,900
This display of lack of interest, when
the price reaches levels far from the
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00:07:19,900 --> 00:07:24,480
value zone, suggests a clear rejection
of the market to trade in that zone, and
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00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,820
therefore at that point the market will
most likely turn in the opposite
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00:07:27,820 --> 00:07:28,820
direction.
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00:07:29,140 --> 00:07:32,120
This concept mainly applies to session
profiles.
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00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:37,340
In this example, we see the three
-session profile of the S &P 500.
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00:07:37,940 --> 00:07:42,880
The first day leaves unfinished auctions
at both the high and low, as evidenced
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00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:47,160
by the unnatural break shown at the high
and the lack of declining volume at the
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00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:51,420
low. While it can be a little difficult
to see at times, The difference is
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00:07:51,420 --> 00:07:55,620
clearly seen when compared to other
profiles whose extremes are
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00:07:55,620 --> 00:08:01,360
auctioned. The contact left by this
first day is of interest at both
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00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:05,940
so a plan of action for the following
days would have been to wait for the
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00:08:05,940 --> 00:08:07,680
market to visit at least one of them.
122
00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:10,460
This is what happens on the second day.
123
00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:14,400
When the price reaches the low of the
first day and finds interest from
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00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:18,460
participants to trade, which is why the
market continues to move down several
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00:08:18,460 --> 00:08:23,000
points until it reaches a point where
this interest is exhausted and the turn
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00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,600
the upside occurs with a well -finished
auction.
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00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:30,340
At this point, we can already see that
there is no longer any interest in going
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00:08:30,340 --> 00:08:34,980
lower, and this may give us a clue as to
the most likely future direction of the
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00:08:34,980 --> 00:08:39,720
market. If the market has no interest in
moving in one direction, it can only
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00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:40,960
move in the opposite direction.
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00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:45,300
Finally, on the third day, the market
returns to the previous high.
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00:08:45,660 --> 00:08:49,560
where the auction was left unfinished to
check the interest of the participants
133
00:08:49,560 --> 00:08:50,940
in trading at these levels.
134
00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:56,380
Zooming in on the context of the above
example, we can see that prior to the
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00:08:56,380 --> 00:09:00,720
three days mentioned above, the market
made a higher high on another unfinished
136
00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:03,060
auction, which eventually corrected as
well.
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00:09:03,500 --> 00:09:08,000
This concept of finished or unfinished
auction is very useful when we are
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00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:10,940
assessing the possibility of the market
starting a trend movement.
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00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:15,500
For example, If we have a bullish
scenario in which we expect the price to
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00:09:15,500 --> 00:09:19,800
higher levels soon, we want to see a
finished auction at the origin of the
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00:09:19,940 --> 00:09:22,500
which would indicate a lack of interest
in trading there.
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00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:27,420
In case of observing a possible
unfinished auction, it would be
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00:09:27,420 --> 00:09:31,600
quarantine the scenario since it is most
likely that before the start of the
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00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:35,800
upward movement, there will be a visit
of the price in this lower part with the
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00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:37,720
aim of testing the interest in this
area.
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00:09:38,380 --> 00:09:42,570
As we can see in this example, After
identifying the finished auction at the
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00:09:42,570 --> 00:09:47,210
bottom, from that moment we have a very
interesting input in favor of the long
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00:09:47,210 --> 00:09:48,210
side.
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00:09:48,670 --> 00:09:53,650
Sometimes, as we have just seen,
identifying unfinished auctions is not
150
00:09:53,650 --> 00:09:55,370
objective and can be a disadvantage.
151
00:09:55,930 --> 00:10:00,550
My recommendation is that unfinished
auctions should be very visual and not
152
00:10:00,550 --> 00:10:05,190
shrouded in a lot of subjectivity. In
general, we will observe them as an
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00:10:05,190 --> 00:10:07,170
abnormal break in the profile
distribution.
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00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:12,700
and sometimes it will even be very close
to one of the two value area limits,
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00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:14,920
the VAH or the VAL.
156
00:10:15,420 --> 00:10:20,620
In market profile, this concept is
completely objective and it is that an
157
00:10:20,620 --> 00:10:25,160
unfinished auction, called poor high or
poor low, will appear at an extreme
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00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:27,460
where at least two TPOs are observed.
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00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:32,840
Or, what is the same, a finished auction
will be represented with a single TPO
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00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:35,120
at the price level, called single print.
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00:10:36,110 --> 00:10:39,910
Let's discuss another important profile
component, the VPOC.
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00:10:40,530 --> 00:10:46,230
The volume control point, or VPOC, is
the level of highest volume
163
00:10:46,230 --> 00:10:47,350
in a given profile.
164
00:10:47,670 --> 00:10:52,890
It represents the price that is most
accepted by both buyers and sellers and
165
00:10:52,890 --> 00:10:56,450
therefore considered to be the level
with the greatest price magnetism and
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00:10:56,450 --> 00:10:57,409
attraction.
167
00:10:57,410 --> 00:11:00,290
Since most of the volume comes from
large institutions,
168
00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:05,440
This is where these large traders have
mainly intervened to trade most of their
169
00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:10,600
positions. They generally trade in a
range of prices, but the VPOC provides a
170
00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:13,600
point of reference as it identifies
where the most interest is.
171
00:11:14,540 --> 00:11:19,000
Since this is a level that will attract
many trades, it is generally advisable
172
00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:20,260
to avoid trading near it.
173
00:11:20,500 --> 00:11:25,000
The broad consensus among participants
will cause fluctuations around this
174
00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:29,590
level. a behavior that will be
maintained until new information appears
175
00:11:29,590 --> 00:11:34,010
imbalances participants' perceptions and
creates a new imbalance in the market.
176
00:11:34,590 --> 00:11:39,170
As we can see in the figure, in a range
context, where at an aggregate level
177
00:11:39,170 --> 00:11:43,190
both buyers and sellers have very
similar perceptions and valuations of
178
00:11:43,190 --> 00:11:47,930
level at which the asset should trade,
this will cause the price to
179
00:11:47,930 --> 00:11:49,490
interact with the VPOC.
180
00:11:50,310 --> 00:11:54,090
Every time the price moves some distance
up or down, Because nothing
181
00:11:54,090 --> 00:11:58,210
fundamentally has changed, it is drawn
back to the central level of the
182
00:11:58,590 --> 00:12:03,790
Therefore, in sideways context, it is
not advisable to place trades near the
183
00:12:03,790 --> 00:12:04,810
volume control point.
184
00:12:05,030 --> 00:12:10,170
In such situations, since the market is
still in full equilibrium, there is an
185
00:12:10,170 --> 00:12:15,310
equal chance of going up or down. Unless
new information is incorporated that
186
00:12:15,310 --> 00:12:19,290
creates an imbalance event, there is no
underlying directional bias.
187
00:12:19,690 --> 00:12:23,110
and therefore we should avoid expecting
the price to make big moves.
188
00:12:23,990 --> 00:12:28,430
Given this information, the most
appropriate strategy to use in this type
189
00:12:28,430 --> 00:12:30,390
environment is a range trading strategy.
190
00:12:30,730 --> 00:12:33,070
We will discuss this in more detail
later.
191
00:12:33,570 --> 00:12:38,310
The key is that once the rotation is
identified, we should prioritize
192
00:12:38,310 --> 00:12:43,050
at the extremes of the profile, looking
for at least a move up to the VPOC.
193
00:12:43,710 --> 00:12:48,010
Here we see another example of this
market dynamic in the context of a
194
00:12:48,620 --> 00:12:53,400
The price fluctuates up and down,
constantly pivoting above the high
195
00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:58,340
level, and it is only when a real
imbalance occurs, causing the valuations
196
00:12:58,340 --> 00:13:02,620
the agents to change, that a change in
character occurs and we move from a
197
00:13:02,620 --> 00:13:07,280
sideways context to a trading one,
generating the bullish breakout and its
198
00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:08,280
continuation.
199
00:13:08,740 --> 00:13:13,360
On the other hand, at the individual
level, the VPOC allows us to determine
200
00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:15,300
is in control of the market in the short
term.
201
00:13:15,660 --> 00:13:19,370
Since it indicates the level of greatest
equilibrium, We can use this
202
00:13:19,370 --> 00:13:23,810
information to determine that when the
price is above the VPOC, the buyers are
203
00:13:23,810 --> 00:13:24,489
in control.
204
00:13:24,490 --> 00:13:27,870
When the price is below the VPOC, the
sellers are in control.
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00:13:28,410 --> 00:13:32,330
This information is useful to us because
according to this principle, if the
206
00:13:32,330 --> 00:13:36,590
price is above the VPOC, we should favor
the price to visit at least the upper
207
00:13:36,590 --> 00:13:41,570
limit of the value area, or value area
high, and if it is below, we should
208
00:13:41,570 --> 00:13:44,910
a visit to the lower limit of the value
area, or value area low.
209
00:13:45,490 --> 00:13:49,670
As we can see in this example chart,
Once the market is positioned above the
210
00:13:49,670 --> 00:13:54,510
VPOC, marked by the green box, as long
as it does not effectively lose this
211
00:13:54,510 --> 00:13:58,730
area, the most likely scenario is that
it will visit at least the value area
212
00:13:58,730 --> 00:14:01,110
high of the profile, as it happens
later.
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00:14:01,890 --> 00:14:06,270
The market then turned back from the
highs after breaking back down through
214
00:14:06,270 --> 00:14:11,510
VPOC, it reached the low of the profile,
behaving the same way again sometime
215
00:14:11,510 --> 00:14:13,910
later after regaining the value area.
216
00:14:14,270 --> 00:14:18,570
It breaks up through the VPOC and again
reaches the value area high of the
217
00:14:18,570 --> 00:14:19,950
profile and even beyond.
218
00:14:20,450 --> 00:14:24,490
This principle is particularly valuable
for scenario building and position
219
00:14:24,490 --> 00:14:28,990
management. We will develop it in more
detail later when we talk about trading
220
00:14:28,990 --> 00:14:30,470
principles with value areas.
221
00:14:31,490 --> 00:14:36,130
Another of the most important levels in
volume trading is undoubtedly the VWAP.
222
00:14:37,060 --> 00:14:42,060
The VWAP is a price level that is widely
used by large institutions as a
223
00:14:42,060 --> 00:14:46,300
reference measure to judge the quality
of their executions, hence its relevance
224
00:14:46,300 --> 00:14:49,400
and the fact that we treat it as an
important trading level.
225
00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:54,120
When they receive an order, they do not
execute all the contracts they need at
226
00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:58,800
once, but will try to do so gradually,
knowing that their work will be judged
227
00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:03,340
against this reference level, so they
consider themselves to have bought low
228
00:15:03,340 --> 00:15:04,340
the price is below.
229
00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:06,720
and to have bought high if it is above.
230
00:15:07,420 --> 00:15:13,060
The VWAP is simply the sum of the number
of contracts traded multiplied by the
231
00:15:13,060 --> 00:15:18,100
price of the asset, this price being the
difference between the high, low, and
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00:15:18,100 --> 00:15:23,460
close, all divided by the total number
of contracts traded. In other words, the
233
00:15:23,460 --> 00:15:28,880
VWAP represents the average price of all
contracts traded over a given period of
234
00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:34,840
time. To understand it a little better,
we can say that above the VWAP, there is
235
00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:39,320
the same volume traded as below it, i
.e., it represents an important
236
00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:40,340
equilibrium level.
237
00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:45,460
This balance means that when the price
reaches the VWAP, there is an equal
238
00:15:45,460 --> 00:15:48,040
probability that the price will go up or
down.
239
00:15:48,700 --> 00:15:54,280
Using a normal or Gaussian bell -shaped
distribution as a reference, the VWAP
240
00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:56,440
would be right in the middle of such a
distribution.
241
00:15:56,980 --> 00:16:01,580
As we can see in the volume profile,
which is practically perfect in terms of
242
00:16:01,580 --> 00:16:05,880
following a very true normal
distribution, The marked line represents
243
00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:07,300
midpoint of the entire profile.
244
00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:14,100
In TradingView, to add the VWAP to the
chart, we first click on the Indicators
245
00:16:14,100 --> 00:16:15,300
tab in the top menu.
246
00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:20,900
Second, type the words VWAP in the
search engine and the platform's own
247
00:16:20,900 --> 00:16:23,760
indicator called Volume Weighted Average
Price will appear.
248
00:16:24,300 --> 00:16:26,060
This is the one we are going to use.
249
00:16:27,020 --> 00:16:31,020
Once on the chart, we will double -click
on the lines that appear and we will
250
00:16:31,020 --> 00:16:32,380
enter the indicator configuration.
251
00:16:33,290 --> 00:16:38,290
we will drop down the reference period
menu to select the type of VWAP we want
252
00:16:38,290 --> 00:16:39,289
to display.
253
00:16:39,290 --> 00:16:43,290
Depending on the time frame, we can use
different VWAP levels.
254
00:16:43,530 --> 00:16:48,910
The most commonly used are the session
VWAP for inter -day traders and the
255
00:16:48,910 --> 00:16:52,670
weekly and monthly VWAP for medium and
long -term traders.
256
00:16:53,510 --> 00:16:59,650
In the source section, we will select
HLC3 as this is the original VWAP
257
00:16:59,650 --> 00:17:00,650
configuration.
258
00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:04,780
This is nothing more than the difference
between the high, low, and close.
259
00:17:05,619 --> 00:17:09,339
Further down, we will select if we want
to work with any standard deviation.
260
00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:12,760
As we know, up to three deviations can
be displayed.
261
00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:18,740
Finally, in the time interval, it is
advisable to leave it in the chart,
262
00:17:18,740 --> 00:17:22,480
in this way the indicator will continue
to be displayed regardless of whether
263
00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:23,680
you change the time frame.
264
00:17:24,260 --> 00:17:29,070
In the style tab, We can change the
color of the indicator and the
265
00:17:29,070 --> 00:17:31,250
the deviations if we want to display
them.
266
00:17:31,670 --> 00:17:34,710
With this, we have already configured
the indicator.
267
00:17:35,670 --> 00:17:38,650
What if we want to include more than one
VWAP?
268
00:17:39,390 --> 00:17:44,090
This can be done, but we will have to go
through the same process of adding the
269
00:17:44,090 --> 00:17:45,090
indicator again.
270
00:17:45,450 --> 00:17:51,450
In the example below, three VWAPs are
included, the session, weekly, and
271
00:17:51,450 --> 00:17:56,960
VWAPs. In order to show all three on the
chart at the same time, we simply have
272
00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,960
to add each one individually and change
the reference period.
273
00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:04,460
Here we see the three VWAPs from
different time frames.
274
00:18:04,820 --> 00:18:09,220
On the chart it is displayed as a moving
average and its position varies as
275
00:18:09,220 --> 00:18:10,220
trades are executed.
276
00:18:10,940 --> 00:18:16,160
Generally, depending on the trading
style, the session, weekly or monthly
277
00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:21,080
is used, although recently the anchored
VWAP is also starting to be used.
278
00:18:21,500 --> 00:18:24,280
For example, This chart is an hourly
chart.
279
00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:30,220
As you can see, the daily VWAP is too
close to the price, so it would not
280
00:18:30,220 --> 00:18:35,020
make sense to use it. As I said, it will
depend on the time frame you are using
281
00:18:35,020 --> 00:18:38,440
in your trading that will determine
which VWAP you should use.
282
00:18:39,220 --> 00:18:41,340
In this other chart, the opposite
happens.
283
00:18:41,660 --> 00:18:47,160
It is a 5 minutes temporality, so the
weekly VWAP will be located in many
284
00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:51,360
occasions too far from the price, which
will make it interact in very few
285
00:18:51,360 --> 00:18:56,970
occasions. On the other hand, the daily
VWAP would always be closer to the price
286
00:18:56,970 --> 00:19:00,110
and therefore would be the most
appropriate for this time frame.
287
00:19:00,930 --> 00:19:06,910
Since all VWAPs represent an important
equilibrium level or fair price, it also
288
00:19:06,910 --> 00:19:08,450
has a price attraction component.
289
00:19:08,710 --> 00:19:09,790
But be careful.
290
00:19:10,070 --> 00:19:14,510
Because the market context will
influence the type of reading we can
291
00:19:14,510 --> 00:19:18,170
VWAP and therefore the type of strategy
we should employ.
292
00:19:18,830 --> 00:19:24,390
In a range context, Where there is
latent equilibrium among all
293
00:19:24,390 --> 00:19:29,270
price below the VWAP is considered cheap
and a price above it is considered
294
00:19:29,270 --> 00:19:34,010
expensive. Therefore, any move toward
the extremes of the range that manages
295
00:19:34,010 --> 00:19:38,610
get relatively far away from the VWAP
will be pulled back toward it with
296
00:19:38,610 --> 00:19:40,650
increasing pressure as it moves further
away.
297
00:19:41,350 --> 00:19:44,130
This behavior is supported by the
market's own logic.
298
00:19:44,350 --> 00:19:49,100
If the valuations of the vast majority
of market participants are converging, a
299
00:19:49,100 --> 00:19:53,560
move to the lower end will be seen as an
oversold condition, a discount price,
300
00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:58,560
and this will cause buyers to enter
aggressively, generating the turn toward
301
00:19:58,560 --> 00:19:59,559
middle of the range.
302
00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:03,940
On the other hand, any move to the upper
end will be seen as an overbought
303
00:20:03,940 --> 00:20:08,080
condition and will identify an
opportunity to sell in anticipation of
304
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:09,820
subsequent move back to the mean.
305
00:20:10,820 --> 00:20:14,920
Trading the VWAP in a trending context
changes radically.
306
00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:20,500
When the market becomes unbalanced to
one side or the other, The VWAP no
307
00:20:20,500 --> 00:20:24,500
represents a level of equilibrium
because the perception of value has
308
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:30,580
In a bearish context, the real value of
the asset is at a lower level, and
309
00:20:30,580 --> 00:20:34,700
therefore the market falls in search of
efficiency, efficiency that will be
310
00:20:34,700 --> 00:20:38,840
achieved when both buyers and sellers on
an aggregate level believe that the
311
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:42,660
price is back in an interesting range
for both, and start trading again,
312
00:20:42,820 --> 00:20:44,480
creating another lateralization.
313
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:51,440
But until that happens, in a trending
context, the VWAPs are used as areas
314
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,940
which to anchor to look for the start of
a new price impulse.
315
00:20:55,940 --> 00:21:00,640
Unlike in a sideways context where any
impulsive move towards one of the
316
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:05,940
extremes of the range was expected to
eventually reverse the VWAP, in this
317
00:21:05,940 --> 00:21:11,120
context, the VWAP is used to generate
the impulsive moves with the goal of
318
00:21:11,120 --> 00:21:15,260
finding the future equilibrium zone
where all market participants will begin
319
00:21:15,260 --> 00:21:16,260
trade again.
320
00:21:16,430 --> 00:21:21,830
It is important to emphasize that
although the VWAP is a specific level,
321
00:21:21,830 --> 00:21:24,370
trading application we must treat it as
a zone.
322
00:21:24,730 --> 00:21:29,210
It is clear that if all participants
wanted to exchange their contracts at
323
00:21:29,210 --> 00:21:34,890
specific VWAP level, this would be
impossible, and the VWAP level is
324
00:21:34,890 --> 00:21:36,690
changing as contracts are traded.
325
00:21:37,030 --> 00:21:41,830
This is why it is used as a zone, where
sometimes the price will rotate before
326
00:21:41,830 --> 00:21:45,230
reaching it, and other times the price
will cross that level.
327
00:21:45,500 --> 00:21:46,680
before the rotation occurs.
328
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:53,920
Other levels we can consider in the VWAP
are its deviations. As we saw with the
329
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:58,100
normal distribution curve, there are
three deviations depending on the degree
330
00:21:58,100 --> 00:21:59,720
dispersion that the price reaches.
331
00:22:00,260 --> 00:22:04,760
A very powerful use of deviations is to
use these levels to identify potential
332
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:05,760
turning points.
333
00:22:05,900 --> 00:22:10,260
The standard deviations actually show us
behavior that deviates from normality.
334
00:22:10,380 --> 00:22:14,920
So, once the price is identified in that
zone, a reversal of the movement to its
335
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:18,560
center, which in this case is the VWAP,
becomes likely.
336
00:22:19,220 --> 00:22:24,180
In both ranging and trending contexts,
the first deviation is usually not
337
00:22:24,180 --> 00:22:28,580
significant enough to identify an
overextended price movement, but it all
338
00:22:28,580 --> 00:22:30,600
depends on the market and the time
frame.
339
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:36,160
For example, in this chart, which is
hourly, we look at the weekly VWAP and
340
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:37,160
first deviation.
341
00:22:37,580 --> 00:22:41,300
and there are really very few price
interactions with the deviations that
342
00:22:41,300 --> 00:22:42,680
generate an obvious rotation.
343
00:22:43,580 --> 00:22:47,920
On the other hand, if we go back to the
previous chart in the 5 -minute time
344
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:52,720
frame, things change, and now this first
deviation seems to identify relevant
345
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:54,120
turning points in the market.
346
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:59,320
This information can be very useful and
very powerful reversal strategies can be
347
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:04,420
created. We take this opportunity to
point out a relevant fact about the VWAP
348
00:23:04,420 --> 00:23:05,600
and its deviations.
349
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,720
and that is the way it develops after
the beginning of the time period.
350
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:14,760
As we can see, the indicator is
compressed at the beginning of the
351
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:16,260
then opens in a funnel shape.
352
00:23:16,620 --> 00:23:22,140
This is, of course, due to the formula
used to calculate the VWAP, which
353
00:23:22,140 --> 00:23:26,140
its display as more contracts are
traded, hence the initial expansion.
354
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:31,860
Returning to the hourly chart, we now
look at the second deviation of the
355
00:23:31,860 --> 00:23:36,980
VWAP. I find this deviation to be the
most useful for this type of time frame.
356
00:23:37,620 --> 00:23:42,280
As we can see, it is able to identify a
large number of price turns by
357
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:46,740
interacting with the price on its
deviations, which can be very
358
00:23:46,740 --> 00:23:48,420
the trading application of our
strategies.
359
00:23:49,020 --> 00:23:54,200
In the context of trends, it will be
particularly useful for identifying the
360
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:57,920
of impulsive movements and the possible
beginning of corrective ones.
361
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:02,840
As we can see, The end of the impulsive
movements of the bearish trend usually
362
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:06,820
coincides with the zone that establishes
the second negative deviation of the
363
00:24:06,820 --> 00:24:12,180
VWPA. And in the bullish trend, the same
thing happens, but with the positive
364
00:24:12,180 --> 00:24:16,960
deviation. On the other hand, in the
context of the range, it practically
365
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,600
identifies the end of all movements that
develop towards the extremes.
366
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:25,100
The reaction generated when the price
interacts with the deviation will
367
00:24:25,100 --> 00:24:27,340
sometimes be higher and sometimes lower.
368
00:24:27,790 --> 00:24:31,690
but with a high probability there will
be some kind of reaction when the market
369
00:24:31,690 --> 00:24:35,770
reaches this zone and this information
alone should be interesting for us.
370
00:24:36,930 --> 00:24:40,390
Finally, we look at the third deviation
of the weekly VWAP.
371
00:24:40,970 --> 00:24:45,250
There is little to note since it is
unlikely that the price will reach it,
372
00:24:45,250 --> 00:24:49,170
can see on the chart, and in such a case
it would identify a movement too
373
00:24:49,170 --> 00:24:51,210
abnormal, too far from the average.
374
00:24:51,650 --> 00:24:54,050
Therefore, it is not the most advisable
deviation.
375
00:24:54,770 --> 00:24:55,770
Be careful.
376
00:24:56,120 --> 00:25:00,100
Because the fact that the price
interacts in a certain standard
377
00:25:00,100 --> 00:25:03,360
not mean that it cannot continue to move
in the same direction.
378
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:07,620
If the price moves in the same direction
even though it is already in the
379
00:25:07,620 --> 00:25:12,700
deviation, it is because the value of
the asset has changed significantly and
380
00:25:12,700 --> 00:25:16,260
therefore the market has much further to
go to find the break -even point.
381
00:25:17,100 --> 00:25:21,280
Let us now discuss another concept that
is important for trading with volume
382
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:27,070
profile. We implicitly mentioned it
above when we talked about VPOC, but
383
00:25:27,070 --> 00:25:29,490
-volume nodes refer to a more global
dimension.
384
00:25:30,210 --> 00:25:35,410
It is essentially the same concept as
the VPOC level, except that these nodes
385
00:25:35,410 --> 00:25:40,310
refer to a grouping of levels, a zone,
rather than a single level like the
386
00:25:41,110 --> 00:25:45,690
But the principles are exactly the same.
They are zones where a large amount of
387
00:25:45,690 --> 00:25:46,970
traded volume is clustered.
388
00:25:47,190 --> 00:25:51,030
They represent balance, fair price, and
participant acceptance.
389
00:25:51,770 --> 00:25:56,010
They are observed by lateralizations in
the price and as peaks in the volume
390
00:25:56,010 --> 00:26:02,010
profile. More importantly, like VPOC,
they also exert a certain magnetism,
391
00:26:02,090 --> 00:26:05,550
acting as magnets that attract the price
and keep it there.
392
00:26:06,070 --> 00:26:09,970
Just as there was a certain consensus
between buyers and sellers in the past,
393
00:26:10,230 --> 00:26:12,690
the same is expected to happen in the
future.
394
00:26:13,010 --> 00:26:16,090
Therefore, they are very interesting
areas to target.
395
00:26:16,870 --> 00:26:19,190
Here is an example of two daily
profiles.
396
00:26:19,530 --> 00:26:23,760
On the second day, The profile on the
right is a simple, fairly symmetrical,
397
00:26:24,020 --> 00:26:25,240
well -balanced profile.
398
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:30,220
In this type of profile, we can
understand that the high volume node is
399
00:26:30,220 --> 00:26:32,240
represented by the entire value zone.
400
00:26:32,700 --> 00:26:38,720
As we know, the value zone identifies
almost 70 % of the total volume traded
401
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:39,439
this session.
402
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:42,580
So the 70 % refers to a high volume
node.
403
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:43,800
This is simple.
404
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,280
But we can also find sessions that have
a double distribution.
405
00:26:47,740 --> 00:26:50,240
The first profile is an example of this.
406
00:26:50,750 --> 00:26:56,570
And in this type of display, we visually
identify two high -volume nodes, one at
407
00:26:56,570 --> 00:26:58,110
the top and one at the bottom.
408
00:26:58,550 --> 00:27:03,090
The shape of the profile distribution
leaves no doubt that there were two well
409
00:27:03,090 --> 00:27:05,470
-defined zones where most of the volume
was traded.
410
00:27:05,790 --> 00:27:09,570
And these zones are represented by these
two peaks on the profile.
411
00:27:10,390 --> 00:27:16,230
Keep in mind that the VPOC will always
be a high -volume node, but not all high
412
00:27:16,230 --> 00:27:18,330
-volume nodes will be VPOCs.
413
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:23,120
As we can see on this first day, the
bottom node is the one that contains the
414
00:27:23,120 --> 00:27:25,700
VPOC, but the top node does not.
415
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:30,640
In this chart, we have a visible range
volume profile or composite.
416
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:36,580
This profile groups together a lot more
price action, and in particular, we see
417
00:27:36,580 --> 00:27:40,540
that it includes all the profiles that
correspond to the sideways movements.
418
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:45,600
As we can see, we can differentiate up
to five equilibrium zones.
419
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,460
five ranges that took place at different
times.
420
00:27:48,780 --> 00:27:54,220
But when we look at the profile, we can
only identify three peaks, three volume
421
00:27:54,220 --> 00:27:59,060
nodes. This means that the five
lateralizations of the price took place
422
00:27:59,060 --> 00:28:03,000
different zones, proving the principle
of attraction of the previous
423
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:04,000
zones.
424
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,840
Identifying these volume nodes at an
aggregate level with this type of
425
00:28:09,060 --> 00:28:13,590
which includes multiple time frames and
price lateralizations, will be very
426
00:28:13,590 --> 00:28:18,510
useful for analyzing the overall context
and for determining market bias, which
427
00:28:18,510 --> 00:28:19,550
we will discuss later.
428
00:28:20,530 --> 00:28:25,010
Finally, we finish identifying all the
key levels of the volume profile
429
00:28:25,010 --> 00:28:26,590
with the low volume nodes.
430
00:28:27,030 --> 00:28:30,730
These are areas where a very small
amount of traded volume is concentrated.
431
00:28:31,050 --> 00:28:35,270
Neither buyers nor sellers have been
comfortable trading and therefore are
432
00:28:35,270 --> 00:28:40,230
considered in some way unfair prices,
representing imbalance and rejection of
433
00:28:40,230 --> 00:28:41,230
the participants.
434
00:28:41,390 --> 00:28:46,690
They are observed by rapid price
movements and sharp V -turns and as
435
00:28:46,690 --> 00:28:47,690
the volume profile.
436
00:28:48,190 --> 00:28:52,730
Since there was no consensus in the
past, it is expected that there will be
437
00:28:52,730 --> 00:28:57,250
consensus in the future, and they will
again generate lack of interest. So they
438
00:28:57,250 --> 00:29:01,470
are interesting support and resistance
areas to use in position management,
439
00:29:01,470 --> 00:29:04,610
to look for potential entries and to set
up the stop loss.
440
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:09,420
It is important to understand that this
rejection or lack of interest can be
441
00:29:09,420 --> 00:29:14,180
represented by the price in two ways, a
sharp reversal and a rapid movement.
442
00:29:15,020 --> 00:29:19,720
The sharp V -turn can occur in three
different situations, when the price
443
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:23,500
to leave the current sideways zone, when
it tries to penetrate a previous
444
00:29:23,500 --> 00:29:26,560
sideways zone, and when there is a
failed price discovery.
445
00:29:26,940 --> 00:29:32,320
On the other hand, fast drift behavior
occurs in an inefficient environment
446
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,420
an effective value migration has
occurred.
447
00:29:35,150 --> 00:29:39,710
In this example, we will look at two of
the three cases of sharp turn rejection,
448
00:29:40,070 --> 00:29:45,250
the turn due to a failed discovery and
the turn due to an attempt to break out
449
00:29:45,250 --> 00:29:46,570
of a lateralization zone.
450
00:29:47,490 --> 00:29:51,170
First, we identify the three low -volume
nodes of the profile.
451
00:29:51,950 --> 00:29:56,190
As we can see, there is one at the top,
one in the middle, and one at the
452
00:29:56,190 --> 00:29:59,530
bottom. It is characterized by a valley
shape.
453
00:30:00,050 --> 00:30:04,780
Ideally, the valley will be accompanied
by a relative increase in volume to the
454
00:30:04,780 --> 00:30:09,180
left and right so that the decrease in
volume in the center can be easily
455
00:30:09,180 --> 00:30:15,000
detected. But in addition, as we saw
above with the extremes, the entire end
456
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:19,980
zone also represents rejection at the
aggregate level, even if it does not
457
00:30:19,980 --> 00:30:22,980
the same behavior of volume increase on
both sides.
458
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:27,040
So technically, the end zones are also
low -volume nodes.
459
00:30:28,100 --> 00:30:33,770
On this slide, we see the causistry of V
-turn rejection due to failed price
460
00:30:33,770 --> 00:30:38,630
discovery. This happens mainly when we
do not have clear historical references,
461
00:30:38,910 --> 00:30:42,770
i .e., nothing is observed relatively
close to the left of the chart.
462
00:30:43,430 --> 00:30:48,330
If the market is rising and suddenly
generates a sharp V -turn with a violent
463
00:30:48,330 --> 00:30:53,090
change in direction, this suggests that
it has just reached an area where buyers
464
00:30:53,090 --> 00:30:57,070
have stopped pushing because they
believe the move is overextended to the
465
00:30:57,070 --> 00:31:01,240
upside. and sellers find this price
level attractive enough to go
466
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:05,320
short, both actions generating the
bearish rotation of the market.
467
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,140
This is a failed discovery.
468
00:31:07,380 --> 00:31:10,200
The market has failed to follow through
in this direction.
469
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:15,880
In this other chart, we visualize
several examples of V -rejection due to
470
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:17,940
attempt to leave the current equilibrium
zone.
471
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:22,780
Once the market reaches a zone where
buyers and sellers are in agreement,
472
00:31:22,780 --> 00:31:24,800
is a continuous rotation up and down.
473
00:31:25,300 --> 00:31:29,620
As mentioned above, The market will
continue in this context as long as
474
00:31:29,620 --> 00:31:33,300
no major event that changes the
valuations of either group of
475
00:31:33,580 --> 00:31:34,760
buyers or sellers.
476
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:39,600
Therefore, any attempt by the price to
leave the sideways zone without a
477
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:44,080
significant change in the fundamental
valuation of the asset will generate
478
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:45,080
type of rejection.
479
00:31:45,660 --> 00:31:50,480
These are the classic traps or false
breakouts that we see in the markets all
480
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:51,480
the time.
481
00:31:51,700 --> 00:31:54,840
In this example, we see three such
behaviors.
482
00:31:55,530 --> 00:31:57,790
two on the upside and one on the
downside.
483
00:31:58,410 --> 00:32:03,070
Generally, this type of action is
observed in the chart as prominent wicks
484
00:32:03,070 --> 00:32:07,630
the ends of candlesticks, which indicate
the imbalance between supply and demand
485
00:32:07,630 --> 00:32:11,450
and identify such a rejection to
continue moving in that direction.
486
00:32:12,610 --> 00:32:17,590
And finally, the third case that shows
us the rejection is produced by a rapid
487
00:32:17,590 --> 00:32:18,610
displacement of the price.
488
00:32:19,090 --> 00:32:24,000
This behavior occurs when new
information has been incorporated or
489
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:28,520
has occurred that has changed the
valuations of the agents, agreeing at an
490
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:32,580
aggregate level that the value is no
longer in that zone of lateralization.
491
00:32:33,140 --> 00:32:38,140
The market enters a phase of search for
value, and this is represented in the
492
00:32:38,140 --> 00:32:39,660
price by a violent movement.
493
00:32:39,980 --> 00:32:44,920
This movement is visually observed on
the chart with large candlesticks,
494
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:46,420
accompanied by high volume.
495
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:51,380
In this example, the direction of this
search for value is up.
496
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:56,200
If the search for value is accepted, the
market will move rapidly in that
497
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:59,620
direction until it reaches a point where
the market once again enters an
498
00:32:59,620 --> 00:33:02,320
equilibrium environment where price and
value converge.
499
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:07,440
The absence of sellers in this case
means that buyers with very little
500
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:09,780
power will easily drive the price up.
501
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:14,900
It is pure logic that if there are no
sellers willing to continue selling, the
502
00:33:14,900 --> 00:33:17,540
market will be unbalanced in favor of
the bulls.
503
00:33:17,870 --> 00:33:22,630
And with an order book where there is
very little supply available, low
504
00:33:22,630 --> 00:33:26,530
from buyers will allow them to reach
higher price levels with relative ease.
505
00:33:26,990 --> 00:33:31,890
And this lack of negotiation is observed
on the profile as a low -volume node.
506
00:33:32,610 --> 00:33:37,330
This behavior will leave its mark and
will help us in the future to wait for a
507
00:33:37,330 --> 00:33:41,590
repetition of a behavior that denotes
refusal to visit this low trading area,
508
00:33:41,790 --> 00:33:45,250
whether it is a V -turn or another fast
-moving movement.
509
00:33:46,250 --> 00:33:50,590
As we have already seen, what happened
is that a new rejection was generated
510
00:33:50,590 --> 00:33:55,830
above the low -volume node created by
the fast movement, but this time in the
511
00:33:55,830 --> 00:33:57,170
form of a sharp V -turn.
512
00:33:57,930 --> 00:34:02,230
This is the key to identifying these
zones, which allows us to establish
513
00:34:02,230 --> 00:34:06,430
possible future scenarios on them. And
since we already know what different
514
00:34:06,430 --> 00:34:10,630
behaviors can happen, this will allow us
to be more efficient in taking
515
00:34:10,630 --> 00:34:12,230
advantage of potential opportunities.
516
00:34:13,030 --> 00:34:17,469
On the next slide, we will see an
example of a V -turn due to an attempt
517
00:34:17,469 --> 00:34:19,409
penetrate a previous equilibrium zone.
518
00:34:20,150 --> 00:34:24,590
In the example of the visible range
profile, where we had five
519
00:34:24,590 --> 00:34:29,590
corresponding to three volume nodes, we
can appreciate all the causistry in the
520
00:34:29,590 --> 00:34:32,230
evidence of rejection in the low volume
nodes.
521
00:34:33,110 --> 00:34:37,750
Basically, four low volume nodes are
identified, two corresponding to well
522
00:34:37,750 --> 00:34:41,250
-defined valleys accompanied by volume
peaks on the left and right.
523
00:34:41,710 --> 00:34:45,489
and the other two low -volume zones
corresponding to the extremes of the
524
00:34:45,489 --> 00:34:46,489
profile.
525
00:34:46,530 --> 00:34:50,889
We will now comment on each of the
rejection behaviors identified in the
526
00:34:51,750 --> 00:34:55,210
In the first place, we have the
rejections by failed discovery.
527
00:34:55,889 --> 00:34:59,870
As we already know, these are turns that
occur when the price is without
528
00:34:59,870 --> 00:35:04,310
references to its left and are therefore
the cause of the establishment of the
529
00:35:04,310 --> 00:35:05,590
highs and lows of the chart.
530
00:35:06,290 --> 00:35:08,870
The previous movement of this chart was
bullish.
531
00:35:09,370 --> 00:35:14,030
So, this type of causatory can only
occur at the top when making new highs.
532
00:35:14,410 --> 00:35:19,170
We have therefore identified five failed
discovery turns, although in reality,
533
00:35:19,290 --> 00:35:23,450
only two of them can be considered more
pure from a theoretical point of view,
534
00:35:23,650 --> 00:35:25,010
numbers 1 and 2.
535
00:35:25,670 --> 00:35:30,770
When the market is in an uptrend making
historical highs, it has no reference to
536
00:35:30,770 --> 00:35:36,210
the left and therefore the first turn,
number 1, is the first one that occurs
537
00:35:36,210 --> 00:35:37,210
failed discovery.
538
00:35:37,500 --> 00:35:41,660
by reaching an excess level where buyers
and sellers begin to agree on the price
539
00:35:41,660 --> 00:35:44,180
level, giving rise to a small range.
540
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:49,420
From there, the market continues to move
up and travels enough distance to
541
00:35:49,420 --> 00:35:52,240
consider another failed discovery in
turn number two.
542
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:57,740
The rest of the market turns, three,
four, and five, while making all -time
543
00:35:57,740 --> 00:35:59,140
highs before turning down.
544
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:03,700
Each already have the reference of the
previous high, and these have already
545
00:36:03,700 --> 00:36:06,580
established that area as a low -volume
node.
546
00:36:07,070 --> 00:36:12,130
In any case, all of these highs are in
the upper end zone and therefore a key
547
00:36:12,130 --> 00:36:13,130
rejection zone.
548
00:36:13,970 --> 00:36:18,870
At the bottom of the chart, we see the
same behavior, continuous rejections in
549
00:36:18,870 --> 00:36:20,910
the extreme zone established at the
lows.
550
00:36:21,550 --> 00:36:25,770
Each time the price reaches this zone,
there is an upward rotation of the
551
00:36:25,770 --> 00:36:30,330
market, providing that, on an aggregate
level, participants are not interested
552
00:36:30,330 --> 00:36:32,490
in seeing the price at these lower
levels.
553
00:36:33,290 --> 00:36:34,290
And be careful.
554
00:36:34,730 --> 00:36:38,230
Because most of these reversals, in
addition to occurring in a zone of
555
00:36:38,230 --> 00:36:43,190
at the aggregate level, located at the
extremes of the profile, also correspond
556
00:36:43,190 --> 00:36:46,930
to the second causistry, the attempt to
leave a sideways zone.
557
00:36:47,290 --> 00:36:51,870
This confluence of behaviors allows us
to favor the reversal scenario over the
558
00:36:51,870 --> 00:36:53,090
actual breakout scenario.
559
00:36:53,790 --> 00:36:58,470
This is key and fundamental to our
interests as we approach the more
560
00:36:58,470 --> 00:37:03,120
part. All of this analysis should
ultimately help us come up with solid
561
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,860
scenarios for what the price is most
likely to do.
562
00:37:06,220 --> 00:37:10,840
In this case, if the price is in an area
where several low -volume nodes are
563
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:15,400
converging, it is very likely that a
reversal will occur rather than a
564
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:21,920
In this case, as we can see, the two
areas of low volume are identified by
565
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:25,800
in the area of the extremes of the
visible range profile or composite.
566
00:37:26,540 --> 00:37:31,500
and by being in the area of the extremes
of the sideways profile, extremes that
567
00:37:31,500 --> 00:37:34,980
delimit the value area high or low of
each profile.
568
00:37:36,140 --> 00:37:39,740
Continuing with the rejection of the V
-turn by an attempt to leave an
569
00:37:39,740 --> 00:37:44,120
equilibrium zone, here we see the rest
of the actions that correspond to this
570
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:47,580
behavior, regardless of whether they
converge on the ends of the aggregate
571
00:37:47,580 --> 00:37:48,580
profile.
572
00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:52,860
In the previous slide, we identified the
turns that occurred at the aggregate
573
00:37:52,860 --> 00:37:58,100
ends. but now we identify the rest of
the turns that occur regardless of
574
00:37:58,100 --> 00:37:59,900
we are at the end of the aggregate
profile.
575
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:05,560
As we can see, these turns continue to
converge in areas where the low -volume
576
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:09,660
nodes of the aggregate profile and the
low -volume nodes of the last
577
00:38:09,660 --> 00:38:11,600
lateralization coincide.
578
00:38:12,240 --> 00:38:16,920
We now move on to identify the V -turn
rejection due to an attempt to penetrate
579
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:18,520
a previous equilibrium zone.
580
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:23,080
On this occasion, we can identify only
one behavior in this case.
581
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:25,500
It is the turn marked on the chart.
582
00:38:25,780 --> 00:38:30,160
If we look closely, the confluence zone
where this action appears is multiple.
583
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:34,140
On the one hand, we have the low volume
node of the aggregate profile.
584
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:39,140
On the other hand, the extreme zone
established by the limit of the value
585
00:38:39,140 --> 00:38:40,640
low of its lateralization.
586
00:38:41,220 --> 00:38:45,320
But we also have the limit of the
previous lateralization established by
587
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:46,320
value area high.
588
00:38:47,020 --> 00:38:50,940
When we talk about trading principles in
the value areas, we will comment on
589
00:38:50,940 --> 00:38:52,200
this behavior in more detail.
590
00:38:52,780 --> 00:38:56,880
For now, we will leave it at the fact
that the limits of the value area of a
591
00:38:56,880 --> 00:39:01,440
profile correspond to rejection zones
and can therefore be used to identify
592
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:02,440
opportunities.
593
00:39:03,020 --> 00:39:06,900
What we see in the example is that the
price is trying to move from one
594
00:39:06,900 --> 00:39:08,220
equilibrium zone to another.
595
00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:12,520
There will be occasions when such an
action is successful, but for that to
596
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:15,720
happen, something must happen to change
the agent's valuations.
597
00:39:15,940 --> 00:39:20,360
If nothing happens, the probability is
that the action will be cancelled.
598
00:39:20,810 --> 00:39:25,210
and the market will reject the move to a
previous equilibrium zone, as in this
599
00:39:25,210 --> 00:39:26,210
example.
600
00:39:26,830 --> 00:39:31,210
Finally, we analyze again the case of
rejection due to rapid price movement.
601
00:39:31,730 --> 00:39:35,650
This type of action occurs when new
information appears in the market or an
602
00:39:35,650 --> 00:39:38,910
event occurs that is important enough to
cause the end of the prevailing
603
00:39:38,910 --> 00:39:43,210
equilibrium and the market enters an
environment of inefficiency in which it
604
00:39:43,210 --> 00:39:46,930
goes in search of value, moving away
from the range in which it was.
605
00:39:47,890 --> 00:39:52,990
As we know, The market can be in only
two contexts, range or trend.
606
00:39:53,350 --> 00:39:58,150
These moments of inefficiency correspond
to trend movements that push the price
607
00:39:58,150 --> 00:40:03,090
to new price levels with the aim of
bringing price and value closer together
608
00:40:03,090 --> 00:40:04,090
creating a new range.
609
00:40:04,510 --> 00:40:08,530
Normally, these movements develop with
wide range candlesticks that manage to
610
00:40:08,530 --> 00:40:09,408
move quickly.
611
00:40:09,410 --> 00:40:13,830
These candlesticks show the refusal to
trade in the lower trading areas in this
612
00:40:13,830 --> 00:40:18,760
way. With the rapid movement, When
buyers and sellers consider that the
613
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:23,780
is no longer in equilibrium, one of the
two forces, supply or demand, will
614
00:40:23,780 --> 00:40:29,140
withdraw, will stop trading with the
same interest as they see no benefit in
615
00:40:29,140 --> 00:40:30,380
trading at these price levels.
616
00:40:30,940 --> 00:40:36,120
It will be this lack of interest, this
lack of participation, that will cause,
617
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:40,720
in the first place, the trend movement
of the imbalance, and this behavior will
618
00:40:40,720 --> 00:40:44,680
be followed in the second place by the
initiative of the other side of the
619
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:49,400
market. Both actions at the aggregate
level will produce the rapid
60216
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