All language subtitles for 3. The importance of the present moment
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1
00:00:00,170 --> 00:00:02,150
The importance of the present moment.
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00:00:02,430 --> 00:00:07,250
As we have already discussed, the
Wyckoff method is, by definition, a
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00:00:07,250 --> 00:00:12,330
approach. Before considering possible
scenarios, we have to evaluate the signs
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that appear on the chart after the
interaction between the participants to
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00:00:16,410 --> 00:00:19,290
figure out who is likely to be in
control of the market.
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And as the control of the market can
change any time due to its dynamic and
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adaptive nature, We must continuously
analyze the signs that can be observed
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the chart to be ready and able to react
to these changes as quickly as possible.
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One of the most logical ways to do this
is to give more weight to the
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implications of the latest behavior seen
on the chart.
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When asked what is the most important
thing on the chart, I usually say the
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thing that happened, and the next most
important thing is what happened
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immediately before that.
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The reason why is very simple.
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because the last key action represents
the most current valuations of the
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agents, and therefore we should be
biased in favor of the roadmap suggested
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the last behavior of the price.
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With this in mind, we need to then turn
to the auction theory we looked at
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previously, which suggests the market
moves with inefficiencies in search of
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efficiency. But we should also refer to
one of the basic principles of technical
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analysis, which is that the market has a
tendency to continue to behave in the
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same way.
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Therefore, if a market changes from a
sideways environment to a trend context,
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it will most likely continue in this
trend into the future, unless some event
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occurs that again leads to the
valuations of the participants to
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resulting in the price settling into a
range.
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What does all this mean in trading
terms?
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The two events that can influence our
directional bias are false breakouts and
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impulse movements, with the former being
the most significant of these.
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Under the aforementioned principles, We
want to get to the point where the last
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false breakout on the chart changes our
trading bias in the direction of the
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roadmap that it suggests.
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The false breakout alone is powerful
enough to shift the context of the
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and presage a move of intent almost
immediately.
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As we have already commented previously,
almost all impulse movements are born
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from a previous false breakout.
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That is where we want to be.
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Therefore, if we find ourselves in a
sideways environment of equilibrium,
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and at one of its edges there is a
search for liquidity, a failed or false
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breakout, from that moment we must be
ready for the context that the roadmap
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suggests will emerge as a result of this
action in particular.
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Since we know that generally after the
appearance of a false breakout there
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be an impulse movement in the same
direction, this presents us with a
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trading opportunity.
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As we can see in the example, impulse
movements appear after false breakouts
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relevant trading levels.
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And when the price reaches the zone of
liquidity once again, there is a new
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false breakout and reversal towards the
opposite direction.
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The market can remain in this context
for as long as it wants.
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Our task is to look for the signs that
should appear once the roadmap of
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events has been established.
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After the development of the impulse
movement that manages to break the
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level, this will be the most important
signal so far.
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As we saw previously, we obtain real
confirmation of the spring when we
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the sign of intent in favor of its
roadmap.
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So this impulse will be the most
important trading event, and the second
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important will be the false breakout
that caused it.
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And as long as this context is
respected, which in this case means as
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the price does not re -enter the range,
the bias in favor of its roadmap will
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remain valid.
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In this example, if we see a spring and
a good sign of strength, What we should
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expect is a real breakout and acceptance
of out -of -range trading levels,
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suggesting we look to take long
positions.
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And we should be very clear that
anything other than that means we need
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dismiss the bullish scenario and,
depending on what really happens,
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consider going short.
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But completely the opposite happens.
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It's not that the market doesn't build
enough acceptance above the broken
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It's that it recovers quickly and again
executes a false breakout.
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an upthrust.
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If there are no signs of a higher degree
that provide the context only on the
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long side, at this point we should
assess the possibility of entering the
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in a short position.
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The prevailing context was established
by the spring and the sign of strength,
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but we know that the market can change
hands at any time.
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It has failed to continue adding inputs
in favor of the bullish upturn with that
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false breakout, and now we know the
roadmap suggests we should look to go
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an example of how important it is to
have a flexible mindset.
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The market continues to develop and
breaks the last relevant lower level at
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bottom of the range, as always, the
potential spring area or potential
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breakout.
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Given that the context is bearish, as we
are coming from an upthrust and a sign
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of weakness, we should be expecting the
development of some type of successful
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bearish breakout test, whether it is
simply a test or some behavior that
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market acceptance.
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And once again, it fools us. We might
think that now that's it, that there
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already been two false breakouts and
therefore there was more of a chance of
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latest upthrust generating the real
bearish downturn, but no.
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Again, the market performs another false
breakout and re -enters the range.
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It is a context in which price and value
converge, and most of the participants
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consider it to be so.
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That is why they trade the edges of the
range on one side or the other to take
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advantage of the opportunity, waiting
for at least one reversal to the
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of the range. And the market will
continue in this dynamic as long as
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fundamentally changes.
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Again, at this point, the context once
again changes in favor of bullish
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control. But we just said that we were
directionally biased downwards.
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How come we are now biased upwards?
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Well, simply because the latest trading
event we have observed in the market is
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the sign of strength, which has
originated from a new bearish false
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and this conditions the roadmap in the
short term. And here again, the same
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situation, a zone of multiple
resistance, without a doubt a strong
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imbalance, where previously sufficient
supply appeared to produce a downturn in
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the market.
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What will happen now?
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Well, once again, given that the context
is bullish following the line of the
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last two trading events, we will expect
there to be acceptance of those levels
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and the price will continue upwards.
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But no, the market remains stable.
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New appearance of sellers in the
identified supply zone and a minor
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again reversing the sentiment of the
structure, even resulting in a complete
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distribution scheme that reactivates the
bearish roadmap with the aim of taking
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the price to the lower part of the
structure.
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00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:57,860
And now we arrive at the present moment.
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The market was able to perform another
bearish -false breakout and a final
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00:07:02,280 --> 00:07:05,440
bullish one, which is what is
influencing the short -term bias.
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At this point, the prevailing roadmap is
determined by the bearish movement and
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the last upthrust.
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With this idea about the importance of
the present moment, I simply want to
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00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:20,680
stress how important it is to keep an
open mind and be aware that anything is
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possible and that the control and
sentiment of the market could change
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Just because we have just seen a very
genuine false breakout and impulse
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movement does not mean that the market
will continue to move in line with that
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imbalance. The likelihood is that it
will because that is the normal and
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00:07:39,420 --> 00:07:43,620
roadmap that the methodology offers us
and it is repeated time and again.
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00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:48,580
However, the opposite could occur with
the emergence of a turning point that
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00:07:48,580 --> 00:07:51,800
reverses the price and sends it once
more in the opposite direction.
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00:07:52,700 --> 00:07:57,290
And the point here is that If we have
fully assimilated this concept and we
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00:07:57,290 --> 00:08:02,330
also good analysts and traders, when the
time comes we will also be able to take
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00:08:02,330 --> 00:08:05,010
advantage of this new opportunity that
is presented to us.
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00:08:05,410 --> 00:08:09,750
The market can remain for a considerable
period in this state with continuous
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00:08:09,750 --> 00:08:14,030
false breakouts at the edges as long as
its participants agree on their
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00:08:14,030 --> 00:08:16,290
valuations and there is total
equilibrium.
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00:08:16,990 --> 00:08:22,070
This is why we need to actively analyze
the market to assess who is in control.
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00:08:22,590 --> 00:08:24,810
and where the price is most likely to
go.
12982
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