All language subtitles for 3. How far to the left of the chart should we look
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1
00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,800
How far to the left of the chart should
we look back?
2
00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:08,080
Sometimes, we find ourselves having to
look to the left of the chart to see
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00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:12,260
reference in the price history,
especially when we want to identify old
4
00:00:12,260 --> 00:00:14,420
zones that could serve as potential
targets.
5
00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:18,720
How far back is it reasonable to look?
How many bars or days?
6
00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:22,260
Unfortunately, there is no objective
answer to this.
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00:00:22,580 --> 00:00:27,020
Again, we need to apply common sense and
think of the rationale behind the
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market behavior.
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00:00:28,330 --> 00:00:32,630
If our objective is to identify a
structure that reveals to us an area of
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equilibrium that might attract the price
back one more, based on auction theory,
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00:00:37,030 --> 00:00:39,790
we must be clear that market conditions
are ever -changing.
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Therefore, the older the reversal, the
less importance it now has, having
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potentially lost its ability to attract
the price.
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The likelihood is that the conditions of
the market today differ greatly from
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the conditions of the same market weeks,
months, or years ago.
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00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:59,660
The ranges that we work with under the
approach of the Wyckoff method are
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equilibrium zones, where the price
valuations of the participants are all
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similar and where the slight differences
give rise to sideways movements or
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uptrends and downtrends generating the
range.
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00:01:12,100 --> 00:01:17,260
When market conditions change, the price
leaves the congestion zone and a new
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search for value begins.
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New participants to trade with.
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Equilibrium will be restored when the
valuations of all the participants more
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less converge once again, and this new
zone will most likely coincide with an
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old trading zone, where the conditions
at the time were very similar to the
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current ones.
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What happens when a lot of time has
passed and the conditions are not
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the current ones? Well, those old zones
will cease to be valid for this purpose,
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and the market will need to generate a
new zone with no previous reference
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point. From a trading perspective, we
should not take into account these very
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old zones in our analyses and scenario
forecasts, and simply focus on the
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current behavior and on the principles
offered by the methodology to detect
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the market context has changed.
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Looking at the chart shown in this
slide, let's imagine that the market
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an accumulation in 2023 and launches
upwards.
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00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:14,940
Our aim here would be to look for the
structure that was developed two years
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00:02:14,940 --> 00:02:17,520
ago. There is not much to interpret
here.
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00:02:17,850 --> 00:02:19,070
It is a logical objective.
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00:02:19,410 --> 00:02:24,330
Not too much time has passed, and it is
the first zone of sideways movement that
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we would see higher up.
41
00:02:26,110 --> 00:02:28,570
Would we look at the structure even
further up?
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From my point of view, that wouldn't
make much sense.
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I don't think expecting the market
conditions to be similar to those seen
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years ago is the correct approach.
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And what if the price shoots downward,
leaving a redistribution structure?
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This would be a somewhat more ambiguous
scenario.
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since the last structure that we see
below the current price is from seven
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ago.
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Personally, I would make that target the
end point, but I would actively manage
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the position so that the moment I notice
that the effect of the cause has been
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covered and that price is unlikely to
move much further, I would close my
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00:03:02,090 --> 00:03:03,090
positions.
53
00:03:03,530 --> 00:03:06,090
Don't think of the number of years in
absolute terms.
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00:03:06,310 --> 00:03:10,510
It is simply an example and will vary
depending on the time frame which you
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using to analyze the trade -in.
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00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:17,780
This example could be valid for a very
long -term trade if, on the other hand,
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you are a day trader. We could be
talking about days or weeks instead of
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It is clearly very subjective.
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00:03:24,920 --> 00:03:29,140
The key takeaway is that the recent
structures are more important than the
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00:03:29,140 --> 00:03:30,140
ones.
5557
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