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(dramatic music)
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This is a vision of our future,
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the fateful day in a far-flung corner of our universe
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when a probe from Earth initiates the first descent
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onto an alien world.
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(dramatic music)
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Looking for proof of life beyond our solar system.
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There are no witnesses, no cheering crowds
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in a control room.
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A decade or more will pass before news finally reaches us
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back across the dark oceans of space.
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But the seeds of this mission are already being sown today,
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by the first generation of scientists bold enough
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to believe it could be possible.
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When I look up in the sky, and I see not stars,
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I see planetary systems.
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We must understand that journey
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to exoplanets is not limited by the laws of physics.
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They look to planets orbiting distant stars,
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searching for an answer to the oldest human question.
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Are we alone?
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Is there life on other worlds, and if not, why not,
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and if so, how?
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This is the first generation in human history
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where we have the technological ability
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to actually go and answer that great question.
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This is the story of humanity,
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launched into the final frontier
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by a new breed of adventurers.
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The planet hunters, engineers, explorers and dreamers,
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taking the first steps on an interstellar journey
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they know that they will not complete,
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a journey beyond the human mind,
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in search of consciousness among the stars.
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I want to see what's next.
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I want to know whether or not, in my lifetime,
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my children's lifetime, or their children's lifetime,
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we will come face to face with unambiguous evidence
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that there's intelligence somewhere else.
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(dramatic music)
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(electronic whooshing and beeping)
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I am the mind of the mothership,
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alone among the stars.
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50 years ago, from a planet far away,
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the planet you call home, I launched.
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(jets flaming)
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(beeping)
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A journey of 28 trillion miles across the yawning time
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of space to the exoplanet, Minerva B:
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a small, rocky planet, much like Earth,
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but orbiting another sun.
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Here, I have found water, organic molecules,
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and microorganisms.
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I have found life.
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(dramatic music)
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When the news of my discovery reaches Earth years from now,
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some of you will be amazed.
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But others will remain unsatisfied,
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and you will ask, have I not found animals or birds?
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Have I not met intelligent life like us?
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And so, my search continues.
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(birds chirping)
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(hopeful music)
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The great marvel and the paradox
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of wide open spaces is that they make us look inwards.
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Confronted with the infinite,
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we reflect upon the self.
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Where do we come from?
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Why are we here?
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Are we alone?
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(hopeful music)
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As a young child, I was mostly interested in philosophy
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and I used to wander into the hills of the village
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where I was born.
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I was interested in questions about our existence,
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involving also the big picture,
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which us being in the universe.
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The question is how did we come to be
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inhabiting this two dimensional surface
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on a piece of rock we call our home, the Earth,
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near a star like the sun that is one
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out of tens of billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy,
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that is one out of trillions of galaxies in the universe.
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How did this all come about,
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and are we alone, in particular?
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Professor Avi Loeb grew up,
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but he never grew out of his obsession
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with the fundamental mysteries of life.
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(hopeful music)
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Today, as chair of astronomy at Harvard University,
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Loeb is part of a generation of elite scientists,
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riding a revolution, in the quest to understand
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our place in the universe.
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We are living at a very special time.
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Over the past two decades, thousands of planets
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were discovered around other stars,
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and we realize that our solar system is not rare.
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There are planets around almost every star,
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and moreover, about a quarter of all stars
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have an Earth mass planet orbiting
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just at the right distance for liquid water
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to exist on its surface,
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and for the chemistry of life to develop.
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The odds of finding life among the stars
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have never been better.
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(hopeful music)
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Following the detection in 2016 of organic molecules
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on the moons of Saturn, on the comet 67P,
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and in the disc of an emerging star system,
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scientists now believe that the building blocks
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for simple life are common throughout the universe.
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In my view, it is very likely that life,
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primitive life exists on many other planets.
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The question of whether intelligent life exists
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is more difficult to answer,
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because we don't fully understand what led to our existence
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and moreover, intelligent life existed on Earth
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just relatively recently, in cosmological terms.
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But I'm agnostic about whether the answer is yes or no.
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I think we should explore, rather than have a prejudice.
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Just like Columbus went out to discover the new world,
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the answer lies in space.
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(upbeat music)
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(electronic whooshing and beeping)
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I am in a stable orbit around the exoplanet
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Minerva B.
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My solar panels are configured to harness
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the full spectrum of its muted red dwarf sun.
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I keep a watchful eye over my swarm
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of explorer robots below.
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I scan the radio, and optical wavelengths,
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hoping for a whisper of alien technology.
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But Minerva B is silent.
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(upbeat music)
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What would it take to calculate the odds
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of finding intelligent life among the stars?
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In the early 1960s,
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one audacious astronomer, Frank Drake,
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devised an equation to answer that question.
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The Drake equation, essentially,
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is a statement of our ignorance about life in the universe.
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In the first meeting held in the United States
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about the search for extraterrestrial intelligence,
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Frank Drake and a number of other researchers got together,
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and Drake needed a way to organize how the discussion
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of the meeting would go,
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and he sat down and thought, well, what do I need
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to know, in order to know how many intelligent civilizations
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there might be out there in the galaxy
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for us to communicate with?
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(dramatic music)
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Drake listed seven variables he believed
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would need to be worked out in order to determine
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the number of intelligent civilizations in our galaxy.
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With six of those seven variables unknown at the time,
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Drake did not foresee a ready solution.
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But according computational astrophysicist, Adam Frank,
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that's all changing.
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We are, in fact, going through quite a bit of a revolution
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in this idea, in this equation.
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In particular, what it comes from is the fact
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that we have nailed two of the terms.
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So in 1962, when Drake wrote down this equation,
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only one of the terms was know.
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R stands for the rate of star formation,
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or the number of sun mass stars born each year.
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In 1962, Drake put the figure at 10.
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But it wasn't until 2011 that NASA's Kepler space telescope
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gave us the answers to the second and third variables
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in Drake's equation, the fraction of stars that have planets
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and the number of those planets with the right conditions
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for life to form.
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It turns out that the fraction of stars with planets
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is approximately one.
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Every star you see in the sky,
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when you walk out at night,
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and look at a random star in the sky,
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it has a planet, at least one.
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And then then the number of planets in the habitable zone
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turns out to be on he order of 0.2.
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So this is like saying if you look at
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between four and five stars,
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one of those is going to have a planet
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in the right place for life to form.
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Remember that the galaxy contains 400 billion stars,
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just the galaxy alone.
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400 billion stars.
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So when you think about all those stars in the galaxy,
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that's an amazing number.
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Up to 80 billion exoplanets in our galaxy
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have the right conditions for life.
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When you consider that at the time
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Drake formulated his equation,
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no one knew if there was even one exoplanet out there,
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this truly is a revolution of our understanding.
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But what about the other unknowns in the Drake equation?
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Inspired by Kepler's game changing discoveries,
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a new generation of scientists has made it their mission
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to fill in the blanks.
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(upbeat music)
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Of all the habitable exoplanets out there,
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how many of them actually host life?
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This is the next unknown in the Drake equation,
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and the challenge it presents for scientists is immense.
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How does one detect life from light years away?
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(birds chirping)
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One approach that shows promise
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is to study the gases around exoplanets,
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in search of a so-called biosignature,
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the evidence of life imprinted in the atmosphere.
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I think one of the things that's most exciting
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for exoplanet atmospheres right now
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is that we can actually measure gases
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with telescopes from Earth.
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Remote sensing is a very powerful technique.
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It's how we first studied the solar system.
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Planetary scientist Sarah Horst
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is a leading investigator of atmospheric chemistry,
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a field that took off in a radical, new direction in 2001,
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with the first ever detection of an exoplanet's atmosphere.
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(dramatic music)
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There's a very small number of gases
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that we're pretty sure we've been able to see
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in exoplanet atmospheres.
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So water is one of the gases that people claim
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that they've detected.
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Some other things that you don't tend to think of as gases
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has also been detected: things like sodium, for example.
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The main challenge with exoplanets
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is just that they're very far away,
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and so you need a bigger telescope.
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That telescope is soon to be launched.
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(hopeful music)
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While atmospheric observations so far have limited
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to a narrow range of gases,
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the James Webb space telescope will be the first instrument
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capable of sampling a broad spectrum.
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The challenge now for researchers like Horst
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is to define a set of biosignatures,
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gases that indicate the presence of life,
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for the James Webb to go looking for.
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One of the gases on Earth that is most significant,
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in terms of the fact that there's life on Earth is oxygen.
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The oxygen on Earth is produced by life.
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That's why it's here,
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but oxygen isn't necessarily a biosignature.
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If you saw oxygen around another world,
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you wouldn't necessary say, "Oh, that's life."
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Europa's main atmospheric constituent is O2,
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and it's not from life.
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It's from breaking up water,
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so it's difficult to point to when gas,
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or even a small set of gases that you would say,
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"If I see that, I know there's life there."
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That said, solar system exploration tells us
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that we will always be surprised and so it's quite possible
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that there is going to a planet where we get the data
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from James Webb, and it is going to be glaringly obvious
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from the data that there's life on that planet.
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Horst's generation may well be the first
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to put a number on the fraction
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of habitable exoplanets that host life,
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but the next unknown in the Drake equation
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could prove much more challenging to resolve.
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How many of those life bearing planets
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go on to develop intelligence?
267
00:16:12,530 --> 00:16:15,860
Even if we understand that other planets
268
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have simple life on them, and indeed,
269
00:16:17,500 --> 00:16:20,120
we might be able to make astronomical observations,
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00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,490
or test that, over the next 10 or 20 years,
271
00:16:22,490 --> 00:16:24,840
then, of course, there's another big uncertainty,
272
00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:28,422
which is how likely it is that simple life
273
00:16:28,422 --> 00:16:33,180
evolves as it did on Earth, into a marvelous,
274
00:16:33,180 --> 00:16:37,510
complex biosphere containing even creatures like ourselves.
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We don't know what the chances are of getting
276
00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:44,110
from simple life to advanced life
277
00:16:44,110 --> 00:16:47,254
of the kind that we recognize as intelligence.
278
00:16:47,254 --> 00:16:50,004
(dramatic music)
279
00:16:53,284 --> 00:16:55,114
(whooshing)
280
00:16:55,114 --> 00:16:57,490
After 47 days of exploration,
281
00:16:57,490 --> 00:17:01,670
I have found no trace of extant animal life,
282
00:17:01,670 --> 00:17:04,113
and so I search into the past.
283
00:17:06,147 --> 00:17:08,897
(dramatic music)
284
00:17:10,953 --> 00:17:13,970
I scan the strata of an exposed deformation
285
00:17:13,970 --> 00:17:15,393
for fossil evidence.
286
00:17:16,390 --> 00:17:18,973
(upbeat music)
287
00:17:21,762 --> 00:17:24,473
I uplink the data to my orbiter for analysis.
288
00:17:25,404 --> 00:17:28,069
(upbeat music)
289
00:17:28,069 --> 00:17:30,402
(whooshing)
290
00:17:35,855 --> 00:17:38,410
(electronic beeping)
291
00:17:38,410 --> 00:17:39,560
There's something here.
292
00:17:40,435 --> 00:17:43,790
(fast electronic beeping)
293
00:17:43,790 --> 00:17:47,963
Reptilian, approximately one million years old.
294
00:17:49,120 --> 00:17:51,613
Terrestrial compatibility detected,
295
00:17:52,750 --> 00:17:55,573
an (mumbling) Komodo-like species.
296
00:17:57,084 --> 00:17:58,175
(dramatic music)
297
00:17:58,175 --> 00:17:59,870
(electronic beeping)
298
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Marine compatibility also found,
299
00:18:02,736 --> 00:18:07,736
a possibly transitional species from sea to land.
300
00:18:09,360 --> 00:18:12,570
Did complex life fail to establish itself
301
00:18:12,570 --> 00:18:15,070
on the surface of Minerva B?
302
00:18:15,070 --> 00:18:17,863
Or is this evidence of extinction?
303
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,343
(upbeat music)
304
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To solve the next unknown
305
00:18:34,340 --> 00:18:35,990
in the Drake equation,
306
00:18:35,990 --> 00:18:38,240
the fraction of worlds where simple life
307
00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:40,210
evolves to intelligence,
308
00:18:40,210 --> 00:18:42,920
we need to understand the evolutionary pathway
309
00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:45,003
to advanced life on Earth.
310
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Just over 540 million years ago,
311
00:18:51,450 --> 00:18:55,173
evolution on our planet took a giant leap forward.
312
00:18:57,750 --> 00:19:00,450
There's no better place to understand that process
313
00:19:00,450 --> 00:19:03,140
than here, in the Canadian Rockies,
314
00:19:03,140 --> 00:19:06,623
in the rich fossil deposits of the Burgess Shale.
315
00:19:07,870 --> 00:19:09,320
For well over a century,
316
00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:11,730
the fossils hidden in these mountains
317
00:19:11,730 --> 00:19:14,640
have helped generations of scientists retrace
318
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:18,423
the evolutionary pathway to complex life on Earth.
319
00:19:24,660 --> 00:19:28,300
Professor Robert Gaines and Dr. Jean-Bernard Caron
320
00:19:28,300 --> 00:19:32,010
are leading the excavation of a recently identified deposit
321
00:19:32,010 --> 00:19:33,243
in Marble Canyon.
322
00:19:34,690 --> 00:19:37,140
Battling the icy wind and snow,
323
00:19:37,140 --> 00:19:39,603
for the prospect of a new discovery.
324
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:43,810
I have something to show you here
325
00:19:43,810 --> 00:19:45,780
that we collected the other day.
326
00:19:45,780 --> 00:19:47,340
It's a big slab.
327
00:19:47,340 --> 00:19:48,173
Wow.
328
00:19:48,173 --> 00:19:50,030
Baseball saw here.
Wow.
329
00:19:50,030 --> 00:19:51,940
Yeah, it's quite extraordinary, isn't it?
330
00:19:51,940 --> 00:19:53,607
I've never seen anything like that.
331
00:19:53,607 --> 00:19:55,090
That's the exciting part of our profession.
332
00:19:55,090 --> 00:19:56,753
There's always something new coming up.
333
00:19:56,753 --> 00:19:57,586
Yeah.
334
00:19:57,586 --> 00:19:59,860
These rocks contain some of the first evidence
335
00:19:59,860 --> 00:20:02,933
of multicellular organisms on our planet.
336
00:20:05,770 --> 00:20:10,500
The first eyes, the first hard body parts,
337
00:20:10,500 --> 00:20:12,623
bones and exoskeletons,
338
00:20:14,290 --> 00:20:17,090
the first lateral symmetry,
339
00:20:17,090 --> 00:20:18,963
the first efficient guts,
340
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,791
even the first brains,
341
00:20:22,791 --> 00:20:27,210
sculpted in the finely packed sediment of an ancient ocean
342
00:20:27,210 --> 00:20:29,700
is the turning point in the evolution
343
00:20:29,700 --> 00:20:34,093
of advanced life on Earth, the Cambrian explosion.
344
00:20:37,262 --> 00:20:38,168
What you got?
345
00:20:38,168 --> 00:20:39,165
I don't know.
346
00:20:39,165 --> 00:20:40,453
A very nice slab with some (mumbling) on it.
347
00:20:41,476 --> 00:20:42,309
Oh, wow.
348
00:20:43,690 --> 00:20:45,293
Wow, that's quite spectacular.
349
00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:48,810
So to put things into perspective,
350
00:20:48,810 --> 00:20:51,840
today, we know life is widespread.
351
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,580
It's all around us, in the oceans,
352
00:20:54,580 --> 00:20:56,630
in the mountains, and so on and so forth,
353
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:02,420
and we can trace the root of all these life forms
354
00:21:02,420 --> 00:21:04,973
to pretty much the Cambrian period.
355
00:21:07,057 --> 00:21:10,240
(tools whirring)
356
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,360
As far as we know, life dates back at least
357
00:21:13,360 --> 00:21:15,760
to 3.4 billion years ago,
358
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:19,110
and it wasn't until about 540 million years ago
359
00:21:19,110 --> 00:21:21,030
that we had the Cambrian explosion,
360
00:21:21,030 --> 00:21:23,560
and that fundamentally changes the planet.
361
00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:25,260
It goes from a microbial world
362
00:21:25,260 --> 00:21:27,170
to one that is literally teeming with animals
363
00:21:27,170 --> 00:21:29,890
and not just small and simple animals,
364
00:21:29,890 --> 00:21:31,680
as we would've originally imagined,
365
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,730
but instead, we have a whole array of complex life,
366
00:21:34,730 --> 00:21:37,240
still only in Earth's oceans, at that time,
367
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,507
but all of the major groups of animals appear
368
00:21:39,507 --> 00:21:42,360
geologically instantaneously.
369
00:21:42,360 --> 00:21:44,943
(upbeat music)
370
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:48,430
Among the species found here
371
00:21:48,430 --> 00:21:50,510
is one of the ancestral roots
372
00:21:50,510 --> 00:21:52,473
on the tree of intelligent life.
373
00:21:55,550 --> 00:21:57,590
So one of the most important fossils
374
00:21:57,590 --> 00:22:01,590
that we find here in this area is Metaspriggina.
375
00:22:01,590 --> 00:22:03,510
It's hard to pronounce,
376
00:22:03,510 --> 00:22:05,930
but it's actually a very, very important fossil
377
00:22:05,930 --> 00:22:09,940
for the understanding of our own group, the vertebrates,
378
00:22:09,940 --> 00:22:12,960
and this is an animal that looks like a fish.
379
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,284
It has a pair of eyes in the front,
380
00:22:15,284 --> 00:22:19,120
and a structure which we call a notochord,
381
00:22:19,120 --> 00:22:23,610
which apparently will eventually become our spine,
382
00:22:23,610 --> 00:22:27,470
and Metaspriggina doesn't have any evidence
383
00:22:27,470 --> 00:22:32,300
of structures that could help him to protect itself,
384
00:22:32,300 --> 00:22:35,658
so I tend to think perhaps he was smart,
385
00:22:35,658 --> 00:22:38,980
and the fact that we find them clustering,
386
00:22:38,980 --> 00:22:41,320
which shows evidence of schooling,
387
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:46,180
is very much reminiscent to what we know in modern fish,
388
00:22:46,180 --> 00:22:50,063
who have evolved such behavior to avoid predation.
389
00:22:52,230 --> 00:22:54,742
Predation is a very key factor
390
00:22:54,742 --> 00:22:57,240
in driving the evolution of animals,
391
00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:00,200
and we see evidence of that here in the Burgess Shale,
392
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,540
as organisms began to develop both weaponry,
393
00:23:03,540 --> 00:23:06,555
to capture one another, as well as defenses.
394
00:23:06,555 --> 00:23:09,305
(dramatic music)
395
00:23:10,340 --> 00:23:14,923
Eyes, claws, camouflage, armor.
396
00:23:18,610 --> 00:23:21,240
All these new tools required coordination
397
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:25,833
by a nervous system, the stuff from which the brain is made.
398
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:30,927
So could intelligence be the product
399
00:23:30,927 --> 00:23:33,593
of an evolutionary arms race?
400
00:23:35,830 --> 00:23:38,130
We certainly see on Earth a connection
401
00:23:38,130 --> 00:23:40,283
between predation and mobility.
402
00:23:41,380 --> 00:23:43,330
Organisms that can just sit in the sun,
403
00:23:43,330 --> 00:23:46,940
and soak up the rays, they don't need to move.
404
00:23:46,940 --> 00:23:48,680
Their food comes to them,
405
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,700
but organisms that prey on vegetation
406
00:23:51,700 --> 00:23:53,060
need to be able to move around,
407
00:23:53,060 --> 00:23:55,360
and organisms that prey on the preyers
408
00:23:55,360 --> 00:23:56,900
need to move even faster,
409
00:23:56,900 --> 00:23:58,920
and they need to be really strong and fast,
410
00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:01,117
and you could argue that that dynamic
411
00:24:01,117 --> 00:24:03,169
of predation and motion
412
00:24:03,169 --> 00:24:05,930
causes the development of intelligence,
413
00:24:05,930 --> 00:24:08,380
and maybe somehow, it leads to the sort
414
00:24:08,380 --> 00:24:11,293
of overwhelming intelligence that humans have expressed.
415
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:14,820
Is this the inevitable
416
00:24:14,820 --> 00:24:17,060
progression of evolution?
417
00:24:17,060 --> 00:24:19,550
From simple life via diversification
418
00:24:19,550 --> 00:24:22,690
and predation into intelligence,
419
00:24:22,690 --> 00:24:26,440
or is an event like the Cambrian explosion so rare
420
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,230
that life on other planets
421
00:24:28,230 --> 00:24:31,634
might never get the chance to pass first base?
422
00:24:31,634 --> 00:24:34,350
(dramatic music)
423
00:24:34,350 --> 00:24:35,950
I think that wherever
424
00:24:35,950 --> 00:24:38,600
we find life in the universe,
425
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:42,330
that life will change through time in a way
426
00:24:42,330 --> 00:24:44,960
that's consistent with what we've learned
427
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:46,760
about evolution on this planet.
428
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,143
I think that is a general feature of life.
429
00:24:50,730 --> 00:24:52,430
To Professor Andy Knoll,
430
00:24:52,430 --> 00:24:55,650
similar environmental conditions or biomes
431
00:24:55,650 --> 00:24:58,512
will give rise to similar evolutionary solutions,
432
00:24:58,512 --> 00:25:01,703
no matter where in the universe that takes place.
433
00:25:02,830 --> 00:25:05,543
It's a theory known as convergence.
434
00:25:07,460 --> 00:25:09,550
If you look at a bat, for example,
435
00:25:09,550 --> 00:25:12,520
and a bird, they both fly using wings,
436
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:14,598
and yet, they don't have a common ancestor
437
00:25:14,598 --> 00:25:17,510
that flew and had wings.
438
00:25:17,510 --> 00:25:21,926
They have evolved that capacity from separate origins,
439
00:25:21,926 --> 00:25:24,703
but to a similar functional end.
440
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:28,170
In advanced animal life,
441
00:25:28,170 --> 00:25:31,860
some convergent biological structure are so common
442
00:25:31,860 --> 00:25:33,703
as to be almost universal.
443
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,870
Well, the eye is a terrific example of convergence,
444
00:25:39,870 --> 00:25:43,520
because we all understand what the eye does.
445
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,690
Your eyes are this sophisticated sensory apparatus
446
00:25:46,690 --> 00:25:49,610
that allows you to gauge
447
00:25:49,610 --> 00:25:52,820
and engage with the world around you.
448
00:25:52,820 --> 00:25:57,250
Interestingly, if you look at squids and octopus,
449
00:25:57,250 --> 00:26:02,250
they have a visual system that is ever bit as acute as ours,
450
00:26:02,340 --> 00:26:04,440
but evolved from a separate source.
451
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:08,240
Again, there's no common ancestor of squids
452
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,163
and mammals that had an eye.
453
00:26:13,082 --> 00:26:15,665
(owls howling)
454
00:26:17,674 --> 00:26:18,690
Is convergence a magic funnel
455
00:26:18,690 --> 00:26:20,720
that guides life on any planet,
456
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,280
inexorably towards intelligence?
457
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:26,753
Or could there be other, more powerful forces at play?
458
00:26:27,619 --> 00:26:30,619
(suspenseful music)
459
00:26:36,592 --> 00:26:37,977
(electronic beeping)
460
00:26:37,977 --> 00:26:40,310
The absence of terrestrial animals
461
00:26:40,310 --> 00:26:44,010
on Minerva B could indicate an extinction event,
462
00:26:44,010 --> 00:26:47,575
or that life has not successfully transitioned
463
00:26:47,575 --> 00:26:51,143
as it did on Earth, from sea to land.
464
00:26:52,980 --> 00:26:55,070
(water splashing)
465
00:26:55,070 --> 00:26:59,693
I deploy my submarine explorer module into the Minervan sea.
466
00:27:03,260 --> 00:27:07,624
In the shelter of the ocean, life should thrive.
467
00:27:07,624 --> 00:27:09,874
(whirring)
468
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:15,320
Extensive macroalgae and porifera
469
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:20,320
suggest high water oxygenation and shallow UV penetration,
470
00:27:23,120 --> 00:27:26,323
ideal conditions for advanced life to evolve.
471
00:27:29,238 --> 00:27:31,821
(upbeat music)
472
00:27:36,624 --> 00:27:39,207
A giant trilobite-like species,
473
00:27:41,540 --> 00:27:44,173
tagmata body plan and dorsal exoskeleton,
474
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,803
comparable with late Cambrian arthropods on Earth,
475
00:27:56,990 --> 00:27:59,293
complex mobility and behavior,
476
00:28:01,090 --> 00:28:03,383
a school swimming in formation,
477
00:28:08,262 --> 00:28:11,072
(upbeat music)
478
00:28:11,072 --> 00:28:13,103
perhaps a strategy to avoid predation,
479
00:28:14,130 --> 00:28:19,130
strength in numbers, or a kind of camouflage.
480
00:28:21,075 --> 00:28:24,075
(suspenseful music)
481
00:28:28,004 --> 00:28:30,337
(crunching)
482
00:28:32,445 --> 00:28:35,195
(dramatic music)
483
00:28:40,786 --> 00:28:42,769
(upbeat music)
484
00:28:42,769 --> 00:28:45,310
(water rushing)
485
00:28:45,310 --> 00:28:47,910
The fourth variable in the Drake equation,
486
00:28:47,910 --> 00:28:51,780
the fraction of life bearing worlds that evolve intelligence
487
00:28:51,780 --> 00:28:55,250
still eludes scientists today.
488
00:28:55,250 --> 00:28:57,740
On Earth, the great burst of life
489
00:28:57,740 --> 00:29:01,050
during the Cambrian explosion was an integral step
490
00:29:01,050 --> 00:29:02,883
on the path to intelligence.
491
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:07,567
But could widespread death have been just as important?
492
00:29:09,937 --> 00:29:10,770
You know, Einstein said,
493
00:29:10,770 --> 00:29:12,290
"God doesn't play dice with the universe."
494
00:29:12,290 --> 00:29:13,910
Well, it seems that He does,
495
00:29:13,910 --> 00:29:15,610
and there's a whole lotta dice going on
496
00:29:15,610 --> 00:29:17,790
in the evolution of life.
497
00:29:17,790 --> 00:29:19,630
Paleontologist Peter Ward
498
00:29:19,630 --> 00:29:22,323
is an expert of mass extinctions,
499
00:29:22,323 --> 00:29:26,650
the catastrophic changes of fortune in the game of life.
500
00:29:26,650 --> 00:29:29,000
When the majority of animals lose,
501
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,677
and just a few inherit the Earth.
502
00:29:34,340 --> 00:29:36,910
This is a mammal-like reptile,
503
00:29:36,910 --> 00:29:40,590
actually called a Gorgonopsian or a Gorgon.
504
00:29:40,590 --> 00:29:43,810
It was the biggest and baddest carnivore
505
00:29:43,810 --> 00:29:46,430
of the late Permian, 252 million years ago,
506
00:29:46,430 --> 00:29:47,670
and this is a baby.
507
00:29:47,670 --> 00:29:51,090
The big ones were three meters to four meters long,
508
00:29:51,090 --> 00:29:54,208
very large skulls, a cross between a lion
509
00:29:54,208 --> 00:29:58,110
and a big, saltwater crocodile, if you will,
510
00:29:58,110 --> 00:30:01,400
half reptilian, half mammal, all nightmare.
511
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:05,610
These guys all died out in the Permian extinction,
512
00:30:05,610 --> 00:30:07,750
252 millions year ago.
513
00:30:07,750 --> 00:30:09,853
Its entire group, gone.
514
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:15,010
The Permian extinction was the most devastating
515
00:30:15,010 --> 00:30:19,053
of the five mass extinction events in Earth's history.
516
00:30:19,053 --> 00:30:20,830
(dramatic music)
517
00:30:20,830 --> 00:30:24,380
Experts believe an intense surge of volcanic activity
518
00:30:24,380 --> 00:30:27,300
led to dropping sea levels, acid rain,
519
00:30:27,300 --> 00:30:29,063
and poisoning of the atmosphere.
520
00:30:31,740 --> 00:30:34,610
More than 95% of marine life,
521
00:30:34,610 --> 00:30:37,087
and over two thirds of terrestrial animals
522
00:30:37,087 --> 00:30:40,140
were completely wiped out,
523
00:30:40,140 --> 00:30:43,913
resetting the stage for the evolution of life on our planet.
524
00:30:46,090 --> 00:30:48,050
The Permian extinction did far more
525
00:30:48,050 --> 00:30:49,460
than just the top carnivore.
526
00:30:49,460 --> 00:30:52,630
It took out the herbivores, it took out most of the plants.
527
00:30:52,630 --> 00:30:55,200
It took out the insects, the amphibians,
528
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,950
but what did get through were a couple small,
529
00:30:57,950 --> 00:31:00,883
reptilian groups, real small in size.
530
00:31:03,740 --> 00:31:05,450
Like pruning a rose,
531
00:31:05,450 --> 00:31:09,760
cutting back the tree of life gives rise to rapid growth,
532
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:13,690
as new branches reach out their leaves to the light.
533
00:31:13,690 --> 00:31:16,600
With little competition or threat from predators,
534
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,050
surviving species adapt quickly
535
00:31:19,050 --> 00:31:21,293
to fill the gaps left behind.
536
00:31:24,859 --> 00:31:27,610
The tiny reptiles that survive the Permian extinction
537
00:31:27,610 --> 00:31:30,350
grew into hundreds of different species,
538
00:31:30,350 --> 00:31:33,130
including dinosaurs who ruled the Earth
539
00:31:33,130 --> 00:31:36,020
for over 100 million years,
540
00:31:36,020 --> 00:31:39,748
until their own date with disaster arrived.
541
00:31:39,748 --> 00:31:42,081
(explosion)
542
00:31:45,143 --> 00:31:47,893
(ethereal music)
543
00:31:49,716 --> 00:31:51,540
I mean, that was a very rapid and hideous death,
544
00:31:51,540 --> 00:31:55,540
probably every dinosaur dead within three to six months max.
545
00:31:55,540 --> 00:31:57,580
That was a line in the sand.
546
00:31:57,580 --> 00:31:58,740
Who wins?
547
00:31:58,740 --> 00:32:00,830
Well, who won are the small creatures.
548
00:32:00,830 --> 00:32:04,040
The T-rexes die out, and tiny mammals get through,
549
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,630
and then they develop into all the kinds of mammals
550
00:32:06,630 --> 00:32:09,560
we see today, and they did so really fast.
551
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:14,170
The size of the skull of the animal that gave rise to us
552
00:32:14,170 --> 00:32:17,197
was the size of a robin egg or smaller.
553
00:32:17,197 --> 00:32:18,688
(dramatic music)
554
00:32:18,688 --> 00:32:19,740
(screeching)
555
00:32:19,740 --> 00:32:22,500
Might the evolutionary branch that led to us
556
00:32:22,500 --> 00:32:25,692
never have grown had it not been for the random impact
557
00:32:25,692 --> 00:32:29,423
of an asteroid 65 million years ago?
558
00:32:30,558 --> 00:32:33,730
(suspenseful music)
559
00:32:33,730 --> 00:32:35,770
I would support the idea that in fact,
560
00:32:35,770 --> 00:32:37,590
if we still had not had the impact,
561
00:32:37,590 --> 00:32:39,900
something else might be running around as intelligent,
562
00:32:39,900 --> 00:32:43,090
but I doubt it would be in this form,
563
00:32:43,090 --> 00:32:45,683
and this set of behaviors that we humans have.
564
00:32:47,810 --> 00:32:50,270
If our own existence is the outcome
565
00:32:50,270 --> 00:32:52,960
of a random, cosmic disaster,
566
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:55,980
then might the fraction of worlds that evolve intelligence
567
00:32:55,980 --> 00:32:58,732
be equally unpredictable?
568
00:32:58,732 --> 00:33:01,482
(dramatic music)
569
00:33:02,710 --> 00:33:05,120
But if we could go looking for alien intelligence
570
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,667
on another planet, how would we recognize it?
571
00:33:08,667 --> 00:33:11,417
(ethereal music)
572
00:33:17,333 --> 00:33:18,927
I think a method of looking for complex behavior
573
00:33:18,927 --> 00:33:21,450
on a different planet is to do
574
00:33:21,450 --> 00:33:23,170
what behavioral scientists do.
575
00:33:23,170 --> 00:33:27,160
You look, you observe, you see how animals move,
576
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:30,251
how they respond to stimuli, how they act.
577
00:33:30,251 --> 00:33:33,350
As a biologist who does this regularly,
578
00:33:33,350 --> 00:33:35,260
I find that extremely exciting,
579
00:33:35,260 --> 00:33:38,650
because the discovery quotient would be very high,
580
00:33:38,650 --> 00:33:40,870
but it would also be weird and alien.
581
00:33:40,870 --> 00:33:42,090
I sorta like weird and alien,
582
00:33:42,090 --> 00:33:44,467
so I think that would be a lot of fun.
583
00:33:44,467 --> 00:33:47,217
(ethereal music)
584
00:33:48,110 --> 00:33:51,330
Professor Roger Hanlon is an expert on the closest thing
585
00:33:51,330 --> 00:33:55,900
to alien intelligence on Earth: cephalopods.
586
00:33:55,900 --> 00:33:59,195
Squid, octopus, and cuttlefish,
587
00:33:59,195 --> 00:34:02,810
the undisputed masters of disguise,
588
00:34:02,810 --> 00:34:04,491
because they have to be.
589
00:34:04,491 --> 00:34:07,158
(hopeful music)
590
00:34:11,590 --> 00:34:13,980
Cephalopods are soft bodied.
591
00:34:13,980 --> 00:34:17,840
All their armor was given away, through evolutionary time,
592
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,090
to their cousins, the oysters and the clams,
593
00:34:20,090 --> 00:34:21,180
and they are soft bodied.
594
00:34:21,180 --> 00:34:22,800
They're extremely vulnerable,
595
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:24,590
so they have to get on by their wits.
596
00:34:24,590 --> 00:34:26,790
They have to do something different.
597
00:34:26,790 --> 00:34:29,540
(dramatic music)
598
00:34:30,550 --> 00:34:34,520
They're making that decision, in far less than one second,
599
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,360
in about one third of one second,
600
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,060
they're assessing that visual scene.
601
00:34:38,060 --> 00:34:40,370
Now they're orchestrating in their skin
602
00:34:40,370 --> 00:34:43,970
30 million chromatophore pigment organs in the skin,
603
00:34:43,970 --> 00:34:47,140
that create the pattern and iridescent reflective cells,
604
00:34:47,140 --> 00:34:49,090
and even the skin papillae and the bumps,
605
00:34:49,090 --> 00:34:50,760
there are several thousand of those,
606
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:53,670
so that takes a lot of cognitive processing,
607
00:34:53,670 --> 00:34:54,853
a lot of brainpower.
608
00:34:57,370 --> 00:34:59,630
Cephalopods have the highest brain
609
00:34:59,630 --> 00:35:03,150
to body mass ratio of all invertebrates,
610
00:35:03,150 --> 00:35:05,240
and their brains are decentralized,
611
00:35:05,240 --> 00:35:08,723
meaning neural tissue is distributed throughout their body.
612
00:35:11,140 --> 00:35:14,070
Having split from our own group, vertebrates,
613
00:35:14,070 --> 00:35:16,810
well before the Cambrian explosion,
614
00:35:16,810 --> 00:35:20,070
they are the product of an entirely separate experiment
615
00:35:20,070 --> 00:35:22,800
in the evolution of intelligence.
616
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:25,910
If you look at the evolutionary history of complex behavior,
617
00:35:25,910 --> 00:35:28,170
we know about vertebrates and humans and primates
618
00:35:28,170 --> 00:35:30,760
and all the rest, but through evolutionary time,
619
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:33,000
there's only group that has branched off
620
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,800
to produce really complex behavior, and it's these animals,
621
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:37,500
the squid, octopus and cuttlefish.
622
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,730
So what we expect is for the white square to show up
623
00:35:41,730 --> 00:35:42,563
in the white headbar.
624
00:35:42,563 --> 00:35:44,503
The white headbar is already there.
625
00:35:45,930 --> 00:35:48,653
And now it's changing its pattern a little more,
626
00:35:50,030 --> 00:35:51,513
it's blanched a little bit.
627
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:54,960
You can see these two markings down here,
628
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:57,533
but we're looking for that white square to appear.
629
00:35:59,100 --> 00:36:00,750
I think the correlation you might make
630
00:36:00,750 --> 00:36:03,530
for looking for extraterrestrial intelligence
631
00:36:03,530 --> 00:36:06,980
would be don't expect anything like humans
632
00:36:06,980 --> 00:36:09,630
or dogs and cats and all the things we're used to.
633
00:36:09,630 --> 00:36:12,600
Here underwater, you have this weird octopus
634
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:15,260
with its head on its feet, and distributed brain,
635
00:36:15,260 --> 00:36:16,810
but they're doing complex things.
636
00:36:16,810 --> 00:36:19,670
We might find something very similar in a different planet.
637
00:36:19,670 --> 00:36:22,140
It might be a different size, a different shape,
638
00:36:22,140 --> 00:36:25,050
and its form of intelligence may be different, as well.
639
00:36:25,050 --> 00:36:27,140
So I think we have to open our minds
640
00:36:27,140 --> 00:36:30,450
and recognize the diversity on this planet to set the stage
641
00:36:30,450 --> 00:36:32,620
and the framework for going to other planets
642
00:36:32,620 --> 00:36:34,825
to look for life forms and intelligence.
643
00:36:34,825 --> 00:36:37,575
(dramatic music)
644
00:36:40,767 --> 00:36:43,982
(electronic skittering)
645
00:36:43,982 --> 00:36:46,240
(electronic beeping)
646
00:36:46,240 --> 00:36:48,713
Night falls on Minerva B,
647
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:54,443
and a secret world is revealed.
648
00:36:57,110 --> 00:37:02,003
Bioluminescent organisms rise from the Earth.
649
00:37:02,003 --> 00:37:06,420
(electronic skittering and whirring)
650
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:11,700
Winged insects, resembling lampyridae.
651
00:37:13,660 --> 00:37:18,660
Complex life exists on land, but hidden from the sun.
652
00:37:19,698 --> 00:37:20,531
(dramatic music)
653
00:37:20,531 --> 00:37:23,487
A predator breaks its camouflage,
654
00:37:23,487 --> 00:37:26,876
and reveals a nocturnal hunting ground.
655
00:37:26,876 --> 00:37:29,496
(dramatic music)
656
00:37:29,496 --> 00:37:33,017
(electronic whirring)
657
00:37:33,017 --> 00:37:35,352
(chomping)
658
00:37:35,352 --> 00:37:37,955
(dramatic music)
659
00:37:37,955 --> 00:37:39,510
(bird chirping)
660
00:37:39,510 --> 00:37:41,120
Since the 1960s,
661
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:43,697
when Frank Drake drafted his equation,
662
00:37:43,697 --> 00:37:46,800
the search for extraterrestrial intelligence
663
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:49,000
has been defined in terms of the search
664
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,373
for a technological civilization.
665
00:37:53,240 --> 00:37:55,640
Being unable to travel to the stars,
666
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:58,270
Drake's solution was to scan for signals
667
00:37:58,270 --> 00:38:02,120
that our Earth-bound technology could detect,
668
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:05,410
hence the penultimate unknown in his equation,
669
00:38:05,410 --> 00:38:07,703
the fraction of intelligent civilizations
670
00:38:07,703 --> 00:38:09,793
that develops technology.
671
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:13,720
The key here is the ability for that civilization
672
00:38:13,720 --> 00:38:15,460
to be detected by us,
673
00:38:15,460 --> 00:38:17,560
and so that is really going to require
674
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:21,240
some kind of world girdling industrial civilization.
675
00:38:21,240 --> 00:38:25,150
So if there was a Roman Empire on this distant planet,
676
00:38:25,150 --> 00:38:27,490
we would really have a hard time seeing it,
677
00:38:27,490 --> 00:38:29,596
but once they start generating,
678
00:38:29,596 --> 00:38:32,900
or start deploying industrial scale technologies
679
00:38:32,900 --> 00:38:36,160
on a global scale, then we think there's going to be ways
680
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:37,623
we would be able to see that.
681
00:38:39,617 --> 00:38:41,900
(dramatic music)
682
00:38:41,900 --> 00:38:44,370
The new technology when the Drake equation
683
00:38:44,370 --> 00:38:47,510
was formulated was the radio telescope,
684
00:38:47,510 --> 00:38:50,800
and those who search for extraterrestrial life today
685
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:53,840
still believe an alien radio signal
686
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:56,173
is what we're most likely to detect.
687
00:38:57,919 --> 00:39:00,170
I think I get comments at every party I go to,
688
00:39:00,170 --> 00:39:01,760
not that I go to a lot of parties,
689
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:02,593
but there are people who are saying,
690
00:39:02,593 --> 00:39:04,317
"Oh, you're looking for radio waves from ET?
691
00:39:04,317 --> 00:39:06,047
"I mean, that's pretty old school, isn't it?
692
00:39:06,047 --> 00:39:07,470
"They won't be using radio."
693
00:39:07,470 --> 00:39:09,140
Well, tell me what's better.
694
00:39:09,140 --> 00:39:10,120
I mean, as far as we know,
695
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:11,270
there really isn't anything better,
696
00:39:11,270 --> 00:39:14,040
because radio waves can traverse the distances
697
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:16,710
between the stars, so the signals can get here,
698
00:39:16,710 --> 00:39:18,820
and radio goes right through the gas and dust
699
00:39:18,820 --> 00:39:20,190
that hangs between those stars,
700
00:39:20,190 --> 00:39:23,429
so you can send radio signals as far away as you want.
701
00:39:23,429 --> 00:39:25,517
(sizzling)
702
00:39:25,517 --> 00:39:27,320
(phone ringing)
703
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:28,900
SETI Institute, this is Seth.
704
00:39:28,900 --> 00:39:31,300
Seth Shostak has spent his life
705
00:39:31,300 --> 00:39:32,873
listening to the stars.
706
00:39:33,925 --> 00:39:34,758
All right, both.
707
00:39:34,758 --> 00:39:35,890
Okay, thank you, bye.
708
00:39:35,890 --> 00:39:38,320
As senior astronomer at the Institute
709
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:42,200
for the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, or SETI,
710
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:46,023
it's his job to scan the heavens for alien technology.
711
00:39:46,940 --> 00:39:50,300
We try anything we can to pick up some information,
712
00:39:50,300 --> 00:39:53,060
some sort of signal that would tell us,
713
00:39:53,060 --> 00:39:54,150
we don't know what they're like
714
00:39:54,150 --> 00:39:56,153
or what their taste in music, anything like that,
715
00:39:56,153 --> 00:39:58,730
but what we do know is that they're smart enough
716
00:39:58,730 --> 00:40:01,143
to build a radio transmitter, for example.
717
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:05,990
With limitations on technology,
718
00:40:05,990 --> 00:40:09,070
time and resources, the dilemma for SETI
719
00:40:09,070 --> 00:40:11,233
has always been where to listen.
720
00:40:13,620 --> 00:40:14,620
We haven't heard anything.
721
00:40:14,620 --> 00:40:16,400
I mean, let me be straight up about that,
722
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:17,709
and some people think, yeah,
723
00:40:17,709 --> 00:40:19,980
the reason you haven't found anything
724
00:40:19,980 --> 00:40:21,570
is because there's nothing to find.
725
00:40:21,570 --> 00:40:23,620
We're the smartest things in the universe.
726
00:40:23,620 --> 00:40:25,290
Well, I don't think it's true.
727
00:40:25,290 --> 00:40:27,380
I think the reason that we haven't heard anything
728
00:40:27,380 --> 00:40:29,290
is simply because we have only looked
729
00:40:29,290 --> 00:40:33,200
at a very small number of star systems, but that's changing
730
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:35,100
because of the improvements in technology.
731
00:40:35,100 --> 00:40:38,090
Instead of looking at a couple of hundred star systems
732
00:40:38,090 --> 00:40:40,930
every year, we'll be able to look at a couple of thousand,
733
00:40:40,930 --> 00:40:42,760
and then five years down the road,
734
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:44,160
it'll be tens of thousands,
735
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:45,490
and then the next two dozen years,
736
00:40:45,490 --> 00:40:47,320
we'll be able to look at on the order
737
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:49,520
of a million star systems.
738
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:51,360
Now if you look at a million star systems,
739
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:53,990
the chances of finding something are not so small.
740
00:40:53,990 --> 00:40:55,510
So I bet everybody a cup of coffee
741
00:40:55,510 --> 00:40:57,280
we'll find ET within two dozen years.
742
00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:59,330
I could be out a lotta coffee.
743
00:40:59,330 --> 00:41:01,913
(upbeat music)
744
00:41:03,630 --> 00:41:05,150
For almost 50 years,
745
00:41:05,150 --> 00:41:07,230
since Drake wrote his equation,
746
00:41:07,230 --> 00:41:10,864
we listened, but nothing we heard couldn't be explained
747
00:41:10,864 --> 00:41:14,238
as interference or a natural phenomenon.
748
00:41:14,238 --> 00:41:15,411
(upbeat music)
749
00:41:15,411 --> 00:41:18,170
Until one day in 2007, in rural Australia,
750
00:41:18,170 --> 00:41:20,520
astronomers picked up the first
751
00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:22,744
in a series of mysterious signals
752
00:41:22,744 --> 00:41:26,645
that still puzzle the science community today.
753
00:41:26,645 --> 00:41:27,810
(upbeat music)
754
00:41:27,810 --> 00:41:30,310
At first, we didn't dare believe that they were real.
755
00:41:30,310 --> 00:41:32,470
Fortunately, I've seen them with my own eyes.
756
00:41:32,470 --> 00:41:34,750
I saw the very first sweep of the first one.
757
00:41:34,750 --> 00:41:35,860
Couldn't sleep that night.
758
00:41:35,860 --> 00:41:37,470
I was like, could this possibly be real?
759
00:41:37,470 --> 00:41:38,393
This is amazing.
760
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:42,550
And we've been able to work out how far away
761
00:41:42,550 --> 00:41:43,590
they are in the universe,
762
00:41:43,590 --> 00:41:46,199
and they're impossibly far away.
763
00:41:46,199 --> 00:41:48,240
They're billions of light years away,
764
00:41:48,240 --> 00:41:50,968
so the process that creates them is so energetic
765
00:41:50,968 --> 00:41:53,963
that its great mystery is to what causes them?
766
00:41:55,296 --> 00:41:58,120
The strange signals have been dubbed
767
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:02,770
fast radio bursts, blasts of radiation so powerful
768
00:42:02,770 --> 00:42:06,543
they emit the energy of 500 million suns.
769
00:42:08,790 --> 00:42:11,960
Professor Matthew Bailes leads an international effort
770
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:14,913
to study the phenomenon, here at the Molonglo Observatory.
771
00:42:16,156 --> 00:42:17,720
[Professor Bailes] Fast radio bursts are these mysterious
772
00:42:17,720 --> 00:42:22,030
bursts of radiation that only happen for a few milliseconds.
773
00:42:22,030 --> 00:42:25,660
The sky lights up, and then they go away again.
774
00:42:25,660 --> 00:42:28,090
They're about a million times more luminous
775
00:42:28,090 --> 00:42:31,853
than anything we've known about in our own galaxy.
776
00:42:34,100 --> 00:42:37,230
Since the first detection in 2007,
777
00:42:37,230 --> 00:42:39,950
there have been more than 40 fast radio bursts
778
00:42:39,950 --> 00:42:41,503
detected worldwide.
779
00:42:42,940 --> 00:42:46,793
Five in just the last year were detected here by Bailes.
780
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:49,350
One of the holy grails is to find
781
00:42:49,350 --> 00:42:51,460
a repeating fast radio burst,
782
00:42:51,460 --> 00:42:55,240
and is there any pattern to the fast radio burst?
783
00:42:55,240 --> 00:42:59,820
Do they come in special gaps, or are they regular?
784
00:42:59,820 --> 00:43:01,990
If they are very regular, we might associate that
785
00:43:01,990 --> 00:43:03,490
with a rotating neutron star,
786
00:43:03,490 --> 00:43:06,560
where a sort of death ray is going past the Earth,
787
00:43:06,560 --> 00:43:09,320
you know, once every 20 seconds or something.
788
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:11,370
If they come at irregular intervals,
789
00:43:11,370 --> 00:43:14,990
or if they came separated by a code,
790
00:43:14,990 --> 00:43:17,250
that showed us that there was
791
00:43:17,250 --> 00:43:20,070
some higher intelligence behind it,
792
00:43:20,070 --> 00:43:23,910
you might think there's an intelligent civilization,
793
00:43:23,910 --> 00:43:26,400
that's actually transmitting this signal.
794
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:28,400
That would be Nobel Prize winning stuff.
795
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:33,890
Of course, the next question then is
796
00:43:33,890 --> 00:43:38,080
could we or should we send a message back?
797
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:39,370
New clover leaf.
798
00:43:39,370 --> 00:43:41,472
If we took our biggest radio telescope,
799
00:43:41,472 --> 00:43:43,440
we could actually mimic
800
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:45,210
what a fast radio burst would look like,
801
00:43:45,210 --> 00:43:46,700
and if we were trying to communicate
802
00:43:46,700 --> 00:43:48,580
with other intelligent beings,
803
00:43:48,580 --> 00:43:50,800
we might imagine that they go through a stage
804
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:53,140
of their evolution, where they're searching
805
00:43:53,140 --> 00:43:55,683
for fast radio bursts in the same way I am here.
806
00:43:57,080 --> 00:43:59,100
And then if you could find one that repeats,
807
00:43:59,100 --> 00:44:01,760
and find a pattern, that might be a way
808
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:06,580
of doing intercivilization communications,
809
00:44:06,580 --> 00:44:09,323
which is a fascinating thing.
810
00:44:10,450 --> 00:44:13,617
(mechanical whirring)
811
00:44:15,290 --> 00:44:16,190
What we're really interested in
812
00:44:16,190 --> 00:44:18,010
is a civilization like ours,
813
00:44:18,010 --> 00:44:20,840
an industrial civilization that shows signs
814
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:24,510
that in building tools of whatever kind,
815
00:44:24,510 --> 00:44:29,510
they have gotten to the point where they clearly have
816
00:44:30,580 --> 00:44:34,150
a kind of reasoning, rational intelligence,
817
00:44:34,150 --> 00:44:37,560
a culture that we might be able to talk to them,
818
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:38,650
'cause that's really what we wanna know.
819
00:44:38,650 --> 00:44:40,920
We wanna know what it's like to be them,
820
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:44,239
because all we know is what's it like to be us?
821
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:46,989
(dramatic music)
822
00:44:48,194 --> 00:44:49,641
If I received a signal from outer space,
823
00:44:49,641 --> 00:44:51,584
how could I tell it was a language,
824
00:44:51,584 --> 00:44:53,533
as opposed to anything else?
825
00:44:55,250 --> 00:44:57,000
To put a figure on the fraction
826
00:44:57,000 --> 00:44:59,613
of civilizations that develops communication,
827
00:45:01,730 --> 00:45:04,570
we need a way to decipher if an alien signal
828
00:45:04,570 --> 00:45:06,883
is actually trying to tell us anything.
829
00:45:12,290 --> 00:45:17,030
I analyzed over 60 different languages,
830
00:45:17,030 --> 00:45:19,630
human languages, plus languages
831
00:45:19,630 --> 00:45:22,173
like dolphin, chimp, the birdsong.
832
00:45:24,130 --> 00:45:26,980
So on the left here, you've got Neil Armstrong
833
00:45:26,980 --> 00:45:28,473
speaking from the moon.
834
00:45:29,396 --> 00:45:32,566
It's one small step for man,
835
00:45:32,566 --> 00:45:34,816
one giant leap for mankind.
836
00:45:36,730 --> 00:45:38,179
On the right here,
837
00:45:38,179 --> 00:45:39,570
you've got a dolphin communicating.
838
00:45:39,570 --> 00:45:42,860
(dolphin pulsing)
839
00:45:42,860 --> 00:45:44,430
And see here, quite easily,
840
00:45:44,430 --> 00:45:47,573
the rhythms going on, the sounds that we're making,
841
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:51,240
how similar those constructs are.
842
00:45:51,240 --> 00:45:52,430
It's picking up those rhythms
843
00:45:52,430 --> 00:45:54,740
and those interrelationship pattern,
844
00:45:54,740 --> 00:45:58,870
that I think are fundamental to any communication,
845
00:45:58,870 --> 00:46:01,560
whether it's on this planet or in another planet,
846
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:03,080
and looking at the complexity
847
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:04,640
of how those planets interrelate,
848
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:08,018
you can actually tell how intelligent the author is.
849
00:46:08,018 --> 00:46:10,190
(dramatic music)
850
00:46:10,190 --> 00:46:11,680
When the signal arrives,
851
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:15,163
it's first checked against known sources of interference.
852
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:18,083
It's a pulsar.
853
00:46:19,254 --> 00:46:21,439
(repetitive tapping)
854
00:46:21,439 --> 00:46:25,060
That repetitive sound going on.
855
00:46:25,060 --> 00:46:27,253
Listening to that, it's not real agreement.
856
00:46:28,180 --> 00:46:29,217
That's too simple.
857
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:33,990
Algorithms then scan for the telltale patterns
858
00:46:33,990 --> 00:46:36,790
of communication, whether its source may be
859
00:46:36,790 --> 00:46:40,993
an audio recording or an intergalactic email.
860
00:46:42,260 --> 00:46:44,080
It's an awfully big sky.
861
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:46,910
We're getting more and more capability online,
862
00:46:46,910 --> 00:46:50,291
the hardware to do it, but I suspect,
863
00:46:50,291 --> 00:46:53,220
unless we eavesdrop on something,
864
00:46:53,220 --> 00:46:54,740
it may be awhile before we hear anything,
865
00:46:54,740 --> 00:46:56,457
but we wanna be ready for it,
866
00:46:56,457 --> 00:46:58,600
so there's no point just sitting back and saying,
867
00:46:58,600 --> 00:46:59,870
well, do saying when it happens,
868
00:46:59,870 --> 00:47:02,140
it's doing all this ahead time,
869
00:47:02,140 --> 00:47:04,040
and so we prepared for it.
870
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:05,600
But again, it could happen tomorrow.
871
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:07,205
You just don't know.
872
00:47:07,205 --> 00:47:10,600
(dramatic music)
873
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:13,240
Recent advances in the remote observation
874
00:47:13,240 --> 00:47:16,980
of planetary atmospheres have opened up a new method
875
00:47:16,980 --> 00:47:19,860
of determining whether an exoplanet hosts
876
00:47:19,860 --> 00:47:24,400
or have previously hosted a technological civilization.
877
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:26,560
The composition of the atmosphere can provide us
878
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:30,340
with a hint about the intelligent, or perhaps,
879
00:47:30,340 --> 00:47:33,570
not so intelligent life that pollutes the atmosphere,
880
00:47:33,570 --> 00:47:36,803
with industrially produced molecules.
881
00:47:38,052 --> 00:47:41,440
Pollutants, such as chlorofluorocarbons,
882
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:43,320
are released into Earth's atmosphere
883
00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:47,113
by industrial processes and do not occur naturally.
884
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:52,060
Detecting them in an alien atmosphere
885
00:47:52,060 --> 00:47:55,853
would therefore be a clear footprint of technological life.
886
00:47:56,712 --> 00:47:58,030
(horn honking)
887
00:47:58,030 --> 00:47:59,900
Some of these molecules exist
888
00:47:59,900 --> 00:48:02,420
for tens of thousands of years,
889
00:48:02,420 --> 00:48:04,650
after they were introducing to the atmosphere,
890
00:48:04,650 --> 00:48:07,790
so in principle, we can find evidence for a civilization
891
00:48:07,790 --> 00:48:10,410
that is no longer in existence
892
00:48:10,410 --> 00:48:12,430
on the surface of that planet.
893
00:48:12,430 --> 00:48:15,483
We can find graveyards of civilizations.
894
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:23,670
(ethereal music)
895
00:48:25,770 --> 00:48:28,520
My drones have picked up a disturbance
896
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:30,203
in the communications field,
897
00:48:31,620 --> 00:48:34,203
a sporadic interruption to the network.
898
00:48:39,518 --> 00:48:40,690
(hopeful music)
899
00:48:40,690 --> 00:48:42,113
Is this what caused it?
900
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:48,450
Some geometrical formation, metallic,
901
00:48:48,450 --> 00:48:50,103
magnetically charged,
902
00:48:52,720 --> 00:48:55,100
part of a larger configuration,
903
00:48:55,100 --> 00:48:57,703
which seems to bear the mark of design.
904
00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:02,264
(electronic whirring)
905
00:49:02,264 --> 00:49:04,780
(upbeat music)
906
00:49:04,780 --> 00:49:09,780
Could these be the ruins of a Minervan civilization,
907
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:13,513
the tombstone of an alien intelligence?
908
00:49:15,657 --> 00:49:18,824
(electronic whirring)
909
00:49:20,151 --> 00:49:23,173
(ethereal music)
910
00:49:23,173 --> 00:49:25,923
(birds chirping)
911
00:49:30,434 --> 00:49:32,270
The final factor in the Drake equation is L,
912
00:49:32,270 --> 00:49:34,630
the average lifetime of a civilization,
913
00:49:34,630 --> 00:49:39,330
and in some sense, this is the most difficult term
914
00:49:39,330 --> 00:49:40,490
to even think about,
915
00:49:40,490 --> 00:49:42,490
because we've got only one example,
916
00:49:42,490 --> 00:49:45,090
and we don't even know what our own future is.
917
00:49:45,090 --> 00:49:49,200
When Drake conceived his equation in 1962,
918
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:53,160
our own global civilization was on the brink of disaster,
919
00:49:53,160 --> 00:49:55,880
as the powers of East and West faced off
920
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:57,893
in the Cuban Missile Crisis.
921
00:49:59,058 --> 00:50:00,057
For a city--
922
00:50:00,057 --> 00:50:01,770
The group that came up with the Drake equation,
923
00:50:01,770 --> 00:50:04,350
that first workshop, for them, in 1962,
924
00:50:04,350 --> 00:50:06,150
the great fear was nuclear war,
925
00:50:06,150 --> 00:50:07,722
and at the end of the conference,
926
00:50:07,722 --> 00:50:12,530
Otto Struve, who was the head of the observatory
927
00:50:12,530 --> 00:50:14,030
where the conference was being held,
928
00:50:14,030 --> 00:50:18,549
made a toast and said, "To L, may it be very long."
929
00:50:18,549 --> 00:50:19,553
(dramatic music)
930
00:50:19,553 --> 00:50:22,570
(crumbling)
931
00:50:22,570 --> 00:50:25,282
The Cold War did eventually thaw,
932
00:50:25,282 --> 00:50:29,270
but while the nuclear threat is diminished today,
933
00:50:29,270 --> 00:50:32,353
we have created for ourselves new dangers.
934
00:50:32,353 --> 00:50:34,550
(metallic creaking)
935
00:50:34,550 --> 00:50:35,860
The question is how long are we gonna last?
936
00:50:35,860 --> 00:50:38,460
Do we only have another 200 years before we collapse?
937
00:50:38,460 --> 00:50:41,830
Do we have 200 million years in front of us,
938
00:50:41,830 --> 00:50:44,400
so this is, you know, it's really a fundamental question,
939
00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:46,720
and it's a fundamental question for human beings,
940
00:50:46,720 --> 00:50:49,120
because right now, with climate change and sustainability,
941
00:50:49,120 --> 00:50:51,920
we really face this existential crisis about really,
942
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:53,670
are we gonna be able to make it through
943
00:50:53,670 --> 00:50:56,500
to more than another hundred or 200 years?
944
00:50:56,500 --> 00:50:57,633
Oh, check this out.
945
00:50:58,530 --> 00:51:01,144
Could this be the ultimate limiting factor
946
00:51:01,144 --> 00:51:03,107
in the Drake equation,
947
00:51:03,107 --> 00:51:06,930
that before technological civilizations work out
948
00:51:06,930 --> 00:51:09,781
how to search for life among the stars,
949
00:51:09,781 --> 00:51:12,870
they destroy themselves?
950
00:51:12,870 --> 00:51:15,680
In order to become truly a space faring race,
951
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:16,890
that takes a lot of time,
952
00:51:16,890 --> 00:51:19,280
to be able to really have settlements on Mars,
953
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,760
to really start to begin to have a human presence
954
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:24,050
in the solar system will take hundreds of years,
955
00:51:24,050 --> 00:51:25,560
and if we can't make it more
956
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:26,420
than a couple of hundred of years,
957
00:51:26,420 --> 00:51:30,210
clearly, we're not gonna develop that kind of society,
958
00:51:30,210 --> 00:51:33,050
and then to ever really think about getting to the stars,
959
00:51:33,050 --> 00:51:34,280
sending probes to the stars,
960
00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:36,830
being around for the signals to come back,
961
00:51:36,830 --> 00:51:38,593
you have to last a long time.
962
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:42,310
I think those two things are intimately connected,
963
00:51:42,310 --> 00:51:45,203
and you don't get the stars unless you get the Earth.
964
00:51:47,526 --> 00:51:50,276
(ethereal music)
965
00:51:53,285 --> 00:51:57,280
(electronic beeping and whirring)
966
00:51:57,280 --> 00:52:00,773
I prepare for my final transmission back to Earth.
967
00:52:01,879 --> 00:52:03,120
(ethereal music)
968
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:07,720
The data I've collected will take five years to arrive,
969
00:52:07,720 --> 00:52:12,720
longer to download, and generations to fully comprehend.
970
00:52:16,810 --> 00:52:20,893
I could provide a summary, but what should I say?
971
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:27,353
I have found everything you've hoped for,
972
00:52:28,750 --> 00:52:30,613
and also what you fear.
973
00:52:33,590 --> 00:52:37,750
I have seen life of marvelous complexity,
974
00:52:37,750 --> 00:52:41,768
and the traces of a devastating loss.
975
00:52:41,768 --> 00:52:44,518
(ethereal music)
976
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:49,063
I could say Minerva is your second Earth,
977
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:54,920
and I hope, one day, you get to see it.
978
00:52:54,976 --> 00:52:57,726
(dramatic music)
979
00:53:01,214 --> 00:52:57,726
(upbeat ethereal music)
75403
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