All language subtitles for Tape Reading - Session 4,5 - Progressing to the Next Level, with David Weis and Roman Bogomazov

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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:11,320 and this is session number two and session number three official sessions 2 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:17,380 uh for series number two of the tape reading course that was uh that i was 3 00:00:17,380 --> 00:00:23,540 supposed to do together with david weiss um and we are combining these two 4 00:00:23,540 --> 00:00:27,480 sessions originally we thought that you know i'm gonna conduct monday tuesday 5 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,120 class but you know it's been a long year 6 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:40,000 just want to be done with all of the classes i was kind of hoping to be done 7 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:47,000 by last friday um and uh so because the sessions david sessions are 8 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:51,820 hour and a half that's what he requested um you know we're just gonna kind of 9 00:00:51,820 --> 00:00:56,780 like follow with that and we're just gonna combine uh two of our sessions two 10 00:00:56,780 --> 00:00:57,780 and three in 11 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:17,760 session with david that's number one uh bonus session number one 12 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:24,320 and bonus session number two and then you're gonna have this three hour 13 00:01:24,320 --> 00:01:29,360 class that combines session number two and number three so you're gonna have 14 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:35,200 five sessions uh instead of three and i hope that this is sufficient um you know 15 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,820 in light of the circumstances that we're going through with david 16 00:01:41,050 --> 00:01:47,750 And, you know, hopefully that's going to be enough. There is no substitute to 17 00:01:47,750 --> 00:01:48,750 David whatsoever. 18 00:01:49,530 --> 00:01:56,370 I mean, like, there is nobody in the world that could give you the 19 00:01:56,370 --> 00:01:57,410 that he contained. 20 00:01:59,070 --> 00:02:04,570 And, I mean, like, all of the teachers, we realize that. I mean, like, we can't 21 00:02:04,570 --> 00:02:08,289 really give you guys exactly what he was supposed to give you. 22 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:17,720 extremely sad, extremely heartbreaking that David 23 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:18,720 is not with us. 24 00:02:24,900 --> 00:02:30,460 It's kind of, I was talking to my wife, it's kind of a little bit hard, you 25 00:02:30,460 --> 00:02:33,860 know, when you work with the person, and I've been working with David this last 26 00:02:33,860 --> 00:02:36,880 year, this year a lot. 27 00:02:42,830 --> 00:02:48,790 same feeling or not um that's just kind of like what i feel um because i mean 28 00:02:48,790 --> 00:02:55,690 like even uh from his hospital that he was communicating to me and to us and 29 00:02:55,690 --> 00:03:00,510 he was saying like you know roman you know don't worry i'm gonna get back i'm 30 00:03:00,510 --> 00:03:05,590 gonna you know we're gonna cover those two sessions so just kind of like stick 31 00:03:05,590 --> 00:03:09,990 with me and i'm like don't even worry you know like uh we'll launch william 32 00:03:09,990 --> 00:03:15,300 first and you come back and everybody's like on board for January classes, and 33 00:03:15,300 --> 00:03:17,960 just unfortunate how it all happened. 34 00:03:20,300 --> 00:03:26,120 I had a chance, as I mentioned, to... 35 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:32,980 How's the audio, by the way? I can't hear 36 00:03:32,980 --> 00:03:33,980 you today. 37 00:03:34,620 --> 00:03:35,840 Is the audio okay? 38 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:39,760 Yeah? Okay. I'll speak up. 39 00:03:40,020 --> 00:03:41,840 I'll speak up. Maybe it's just me. 40 00:03:42,190 --> 00:03:47,950 So, but if your audio is you're not catching something, then definitely log 41 00:03:47,950 --> 00:03:50,570 log in back, and you'll have that. 42 00:03:51,230 --> 00:03:55,910 So as I was saying, I had a chance to work with David a lot this year. 43 00:03:56,290 --> 00:04:02,090 My first encounter with David was obviously through the material that he 44 00:04:02,090 --> 00:04:03,090 providing. 45 00:04:13,580 --> 00:04:15,640 of Waikos at Golden Gate University. 46 00:04:15,940 --> 00:04:21,579 I actually did not attend that particular conference. I believe it was 47 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:26,640 And Bruce sometimes, you know, talks about that particular conference. 48 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:34,180 Hank and David definitely knew each other well. 49 00:04:34,900 --> 00:04:39,980 Hank spoke about David, and David obviously, you know, in my conversations 50 00:04:39,980 --> 00:04:41,140 him, spoke about Hank. 51 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:44,640 he had very fond memories of him. 52 00:04:46,420 --> 00:04:53,240 David was a very instrumental person in 53 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:54,620 the Wyckoff method. 54 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:03,980 If, let's say, SMI, starting with Bob Evans after 55 00:05:03,980 --> 00:05:10,140 Richard D. Wyckoff's death, if Bob Evans was 56 00:05:10,140 --> 00:05:16,880 kind of like this very, very structural guy, right? So he was taking the 57 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:23,860 concepts and he was trying to structurize and give all of the 58 00:05:23,860 --> 00:05:30,800 spots some kind of name. So some of you might be surprised that, you know, when 59 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:34,440 I would say that Wyckoff actually did not have any phase analysis. 60 00:05:34,940 --> 00:05:40,960 I mean, like, literally, it's not Richard D. Wyckoff's... 61 00:05:41,470 --> 00:05:45,870 work. It came later on from SMI. 62 00:05:46,330 --> 00:05:49,230 Wyckoff did not have a definition of the spring. 63 00:05:49,490 --> 00:05:54,890 He had a definition of a shakeout and a terminal shakeout. So those type of 64 00:05:54,890 --> 00:06:01,530 things that we were grateful to Bob Evans, you know, to put on paper, to put 65 00:06:01,530 --> 00:06:05,230 tape, echo tapes, I'm sorry, and 66 00:06:06,270 --> 00:06:10,810 So his work predominantly was on the structure, and I think that's what we're 67 00:06:10,810 --> 00:06:13,010 grateful for, for Bob Evans. 68 00:06:13,250 --> 00:06:19,250 Whereas David, obviously, a next generation of Wycoffians. So to me, 69 00:06:19,970 --> 00:06:26,810 Hank Pruden, Tom Williams, David Wise, and Craig Schroeder, they are kind of 70 00:06:26,810 --> 00:06:32,150 like one generational layer of Wycoffians who did different things. 71 00:06:32,810 --> 00:06:36,190 So David had a very unique approach. 72 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:37,439 of the methodology. 73 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:43,380 He approached it more from volume and price, tape reading, 74 00:06:43,700 --> 00:06:50,580 supply and demand, 75 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:57,900 swing analysis of the, you know, or analysis rather of the effort versus 76 00:06:57,900 --> 00:06:59,540 in swings and in the bars. 77 00:07:05,740 --> 00:07:10,980 William said in the previous session on Thursday, he modernized, you know, the 78 00:07:10,980 --> 00:07:17,580 tape reading approach, you know, taken from Wyckoff methodology 79 00:07:17,580 --> 00:07:24,400 by bringing, you know, his David Wise cumulative wave, by looking at the 80 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:31,240 effort versus result on the swing, and also working 81 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:34,400 a lot with PNF and Renko. 82 00:07:37,020 --> 00:07:43,480 So, that was probably the most prolific contribution 83 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:47,400 by David, you know, to the methodology. 84 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:52,000 And then, obviously, you know, his character. 85 00:07:52,460 --> 00:07:58,840 For those of you who had the chance to work with him privately, and David most 86 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:01,300 of the time conducted private sessions. 87 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:10,000 of lucky and i was just unbelievably grateful to david that he agreed you 88 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:16,360 to have these classes and uh we were just very excited and um what do you 89 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:21,300 we only have one session with him but this is the session that you know we'll 90 00:08:21,300 --> 00:08:26,420 definitely cherish at some point you know maybe in a year we'll put it on 91 00:08:26,420 --> 00:08:30,320 youtube channel as a free session just you know to remember david that way 92 00:08:33,900 --> 00:08:40,820 His character was of, and this is just coming from me, but I'm sure that 93 00:08:40,820 --> 00:08:46,020 you could relate to this, you know, those of you who have taken even a 94 00:08:46,020 --> 00:08:47,420 session. He was very generous. 95 00:08:48,420 --> 00:08:53,620 He was very generous with his time and he was very passionate about his work, 96 00:08:53,780 --> 00:08:55,760 about looking at the charts. 97 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:59,900 And I started working with him in January of 2020. 98 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:01,760 So right before... 99 00:09:12,680 --> 00:09:19,520 of wanted to build a closer relationship with him because obviously he he's such 100 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:26,180 a big figure and you know I've realized that even at the level that I am 101 00:09:26,180 --> 00:09:32,820 I still could be mentored by a great teacher like David so I had 102 00:09:32,820 --> 00:09:38,520 throughout this year almost 30 private sessions with him that I went through 103 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:41,900 we did a bunch of different exercises but 104 00:09:43,850 --> 00:09:48,370 know what it is maybe it's just kind of like a camaraderie that we had that we 105 00:09:48,370 --> 00:09:55,050 shared we laughed a lot when we looked at the chart and I 106 00:09:55,050 --> 00:10:00,110 mean obviously being both so curious about what's going on in the chart it 107 00:10:00,110 --> 00:10:06,790 kind of fun it was a lot of fun to just you 108 00:10:06,790 --> 00:10:09,770 know go through the analysis with him where 109 00:10:14,730 --> 00:10:18,990 okay well what's the deduction out of that you know like this seems to be of 110 00:10:18,990 --> 00:10:23,990 this character and this moves you know like and so on so forth and one of the 111 00:10:23,990 --> 00:10:27,970 things that he was commenting and i mean like it's kind of pretty obvious he was 112 00:10:27,970 --> 00:10:32,970 like you know uh like in the middle of the session he was like i don't have any 113 00:10:32,970 --> 00:10:36,070 material for you anymore and i'm like how come and he's like you're just going 114 00:10:36,070 --> 00:10:42,970 too fast um he's like your analysis is so fast and i think maybe it's just 115 00:10:42,970 --> 00:10:47,270 a function of the classes you know that they teach where i have to like go 116 00:10:47,270 --> 00:10:53,310 really fast right so um or just slow down you know it just depends on the 117 00:10:53,310 --> 00:10:58,490 like wmd is always like you know like we would go like through 30 50 charts in 118 00:10:58,490 --> 00:11:04,810 that class um but david really enjoyed it um and so did i because in a short 119 00:11:04,810 --> 00:11:10,410 period of time that you know we had together we were able to go through a 120 00:11:10,410 --> 00:11:13,450 material number one um and i think it's just because 121 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:20,460 he really didn't have to explain a lot and we were just enjoying kind of like 122 00:11:20,460 --> 00:11:27,340 looking at the charts and kind of analyzing and he was kind of mesmerized 123 00:11:27,340 --> 00:11:33,180 with some of the pyramid techniques that i had and he was always like well i 124 00:11:33,180 --> 00:11:38,620 wouldn't do that but it works and it's just amazing how you do this and so on 125 00:11:38,620 --> 00:11:43,220 forth and obviously i was trying to figure out how he did 126 00:11:44,970 --> 00:11:51,070 And he wasn't an extremely active trader per se, let's say the last year, but he 127 00:11:51,070 --> 00:11:55,910 was chasing this trade in court. And, you know, he was talking about in 128 00:11:55,910 --> 00:12:00,010 and he was talking about the history. And I mean, obviously, I'm also kind of 129 00:12:00,010 --> 00:12:05,490 like, you know, a chart history nerd. So I was always like, OK, let's go show 130 00:12:05,490 --> 00:12:09,010 me, you know, where did you trade it? You know, why did you why were you 131 00:12:09,010 --> 00:12:11,130 thinking this way at that time? 132 00:12:11,610 --> 00:12:16,090 and we were just talking about the history of that corn trade and then 133 00:12:16,090 --> 00:12:22,050 it comes and he's like this is it and what a great call what an amazing call 134 00:12:22,050 --> 00:12:28,970 like you know i i kind of experienced it from from the master himself 135 00:12:28,970 --> 00:12:35,050 um just kind of thinking about 136 00:12:35,050 --> 00:12:39,750 how he was approaching the selection and 137 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:47,020 he was already you know so set on the bias and it was interesting that both of 138 00:12:47,020 --> 00:12:51,380 us were kind of confirming the same trade because i was talking at the time 139 00:12:51,380 --> 00:12:57,280 lot about agriculture and commodities in general so going into summer it may it 140 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:03,440 was obvious to both of us that agriculture in general and including 141 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:08,860 are just going to reap through uh you know off the lows considering you know 142 00:13:10,350 --> 00:13:13,110 intensity all of the institutions had of the COVID low. 143 00:13:14,730 --> 00:13:16,490 So that was a great trade. 144 00:13:17,750 --> 00:13:24,750 He was also, you know, we kind of became 145 00:13:24,750 --> 00:13:31,470 a little bit personal with each other. And I was hoping, you know, to go to 146 00:13:31,470 --> 00:13:36,050 Boston because my daughter goes to Boston, one of the Boston universities. 147 00:13:37,190 --> 00:13:38,850 And David leaves. 148 00:13:39,070 --> 00:13:40,770 in the suburbs of Boston. 149 00:14:11,530 --> 00:14:18,490 that i'm gonna come and um you know he was saying like yeah i'm 150 00:14:18,490 --> 00:14:23,770 gonna take it to my favorite restaurant um and because i'm a little bit of a 151 00:14:23,770 --> 00:14:30,610 food um a foodie and uh so we were looking towards 152 00:14:30,610 --> 00:14:37,410 that and uh obviously will never happen um but uh you know he was giving 153 00:14:37,410 --> 00:14:42,310 himself all um As a teacher, as a friend, as a mentor, 154 00:14:42,610 --> 00:14:47,430 I had a 155 00:14:47,430 --> 00:14:53,930 very tough time 156 00:14:53,930 --> 00:14:55,570 when Hank passed. 157 00:14:57,690 --> 00:15:04,190 And this year with David kind of got me so close to him. 158 00:15:14,830 --> 00:15:20,630 so on so forth it's really hard 159 00:15:20,630 --> 00:15:27,530 to let him go so the best remedy that i 160 00:15:27,530 --> 00:15:32,970 found with hink because that was also such a huge loss for me personally 161 00:15:32,970 --> 00:15:39,770 is just to remember them you know and we should remember david we 162 00:15:39,770 --> 00:15:42,010 will david's book is 163 00:15:44,010 --> 00:15:50,930 And that book will stand, you know, it will stand the time. Many students of 164 00:15:50,930 --> 00:15:53,010 the market will read that book. 165 00:15:53,270 --> 00:15:57,430 And I will make sure that we do here at Wyckoff Analytics. 166 00:16:00,870 --> 00:16:06,430 You know, we've already kind of been doing that, but we'll do that more. 167 00:16:09,210 --> 00:16:12,470 I want you to know that also... 168 00:16:12,970 --> 00:16:19,170 david's family and i only had a chance to know his wife karen um and 169 00:16:19,170 --> 00:16:25,250 by knowing i mean like i have corresponded with her i talked to her 170 00:16:25,250 --> 00:16:31,510 um in the last couple of months so i know her from that but i've never met 171 00:16:31,510 --> 00:16:33,850 and he also has 172 00:16:42,250 --> 00:16:49,170 very very sweet people and it would be tremendous if all of 173 00:16:49,170 --> 00:16:54,390 you those who had a chance to work with David or even you didn't have a chance 174 00:16:54,390 --> 00:16:59,350 to work with David and maybe you just read his book and it impacted you so 175 00:16:59,350 --> 00:17:05,369 deeply profoundly you know write us an email with your memories of David and 176 00:17:05,369 --> 00:17:09,930 your work with him and I will collect all of those emails I will put them into 177 00:17:09,930 --> 00:17:16,339 some kind of know pdf or i'll figure it out and i'll send it to canada and the 178 00:17:16,339 --> 00:17:22,980 family i think it would be nice for them to hear 179 00:17:22,980 --> 00:17:26,819 from his students and i'm sure they are receiving a lot of emails but you know 180 00:17:26,819 --> 00:17:33,800 just kind of like in one um from from another source from one source um 181 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:37,360 so if you have a chance uh you know definitely 182 00:17:42,350 --> 00:17:48,350 we'll get it together and we'll forward that uh to the family all right um 183 00:17:48,350 --> 00:17:55,030 i think probably that's it 184 00:17:55,030 --> 00:18:01,150 uh i can't think of anything else right now this is probably the first time when 185 00:18:01,150 --> 00:18:08,150 i kind of like let myself talk about him a little 186 00:18:08,150 --> 00:18:10,030 bit more like you know in the extension 187 00:18:12,330 --> 00:18:19,030 thought that I have about him and yeah, I'm kind of a little bit lost 188 00:18:19,030 --> 00:18:20,570 with words. 189 00:18:21,270 --> 00:18:25,030 You're such a great man. 190 00:18:26,190 --> 00:18:31,050 Okay, what are we going to do today? Let's just kind of like concentrate. 191 00:18:33,210 --> 00:18:40,090 Okay, so today we're going to have throughout the whole session, I'm not 192 00:18:44,540 --> 00:18:51,260 questions I think it's the one of the most important teaching and learning 193 00:18:51,260 --> 00:18:57,060 that we could have question and answer now you can do this in different ways 194 00:18:57,060 --> 00:19:04,040 specifically for this class what I'm thinking is I 195 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:10,300 want to have all of the questions on the agenda and then as we go through the 196 00:19:10,300 --> 00:19:11,300 session 197 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:17,140 then I will try to concentrate on some of the questions that relate to that 198 00:19:17,140 --> 00:19:23,960 material. And obviously, we want to, it's still David's session, so 199 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,680 we want to go through some of the David's material. 200 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:32,040 And therefore, we're going to talk about his book and what our students here at 201 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:37,780 Wyckoff Analytics did with that book, how we 202 00:19:37,780 --> 00:19:42,660 could work with that book. It's a very important... 203 00:19:43,250 --> 00:19:47,410 understanding for us how do you work with that book you can't really just 204 00:19:47,410 --> 00:19:53,530 it you have to study it so we'll talk about that and then we just we'll do 205 00:19:53,530 --> 00:19:55,470 practice exercises as always 206 00:20:30,540 --> 00:20:36,680 is for educational purposes only so stop the recording read a disclaimer in full 207 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:40,220 so let's do those q a 208 00:20:40,220 --> 00:20:46,280 inquiries let's just go through some of the questions 209 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:53,260 so um let's figure out 210 00:20:53,260 --> 00:20:58,340 what kind of questions you guys have so type those in i'm gonna copy paste them 211 00:20:58,990 --> 00:21:03,030 kind of like as i do this i'll think about you know what are the appropriate 212 00:21:03,030 --> 00:21:09,710 know moments uh that we could go through uh those questions and uh some of the 213 00:21:09,710 --> 00:21:16,670 questions you know will definitely go through at the end 214 00:21:16,670 --> 00:21:23,650 of the session and some of them during the session okay so here's 215 00:21:23,650 --> 00:21:24,650 the first question 216 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:37,500 all about david's work david wise indicator and how it works can you 217 00:21:37,500 --> 00:21:43,660 it's volume indicator yeah we could definitely go through this okay no 218 00:21:43,660 --> 00:21:49,420 bar and think about any questions that you have on tape reading and chart 219 00:21:49,420 --> 00:21:52,800 reading by the way those are two different things tape reading and chart 220 00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:59,260 we can talk about this as well okay so 221 00:21:59,260 --> 00:22:01,840 some questions are coming in that are just 222 00:22:05,049 --> 00:22:09,090 david's work so i'm gonna separate those okay what else guys 223 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:50,300 What is that? I don't want to even make any assumptions there 224 00:22:50,300 --> 00:22:56,960 Reservation bars from David's work 225 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:52,960 absorption we'll talk about this today absolutely okay 226 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:58,400 volume profile um okay horizontal volume was that the amplitude that 227 00:24:27,210 --> 00:24:32,290 view various spots at the edge of the trading range first okay so tactics 228 00:24:32,290 --> 00:24:39,030 okay 229 00:24:39,030 --> 00:24:45,450 footprints show the beta versus ask volume at price level in the 230 00:24:45,450 --> 00:24:52,010 in the bars and show balance on balance of orders oh i see okay so that 231 00:24:52,010 --> 00:24:55,950 is the you know the delta volume right 232 00:25:00,549 --> 00:25:07,470 Probably not going to go there because this work is a little bit, it 233 00:25:07,470 --> 00:25:09,790 requires a little bit more thought. 234 00:25:13,070 --> 00:25:17,030 Ironically, I was just talking about this with somebody this week. 235 00:25:19,230 --> 00:25:23,110 There is definitely some interesting things. 236 00:25:36,780 --> 00:25:41,380 The majority of that work is on the very, very low time frame, and I just 237 00:25:41,380 --> 00:25:42,380 have time for that. 238 00:25:47,100 --> 00:25:50,700 Timing is always an interesting topic. I'll only think that confirmation for 239 00:25:50,700 --> 00:25:55,600 entries. On sharp moves, some situations... 240 00:26:38,220 --> 00:26:44,300 talk about this relative to david's work how does volume and spread ratios 241 00:26:44,300 --> 00:26:45,300 detect 242 00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:08,260 five minute chart today the reversal was very interesting so today's market yeah 243 00:27:08,260 --> 00:27:14,660 definitely we could look at that if we have time so and by the way i just want 244 00:27:14,660 --> 00:27:21,520 to say that um you guys are you know such great 245 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:27,140 students um we received a lot of good feedback from you uh regarding this 246 00:27:27,140 --> 00:27:32,560 um so one of the things and by the way for those of you who did not 247 00:27:37,550 --> 00:27:43,990 with william uh that was a blast as well i mean um every 248 00:27:43,990 --> 00:27:50,670 every teacher that i worked through this course with um was awesome in his 249 00:27:50,670 --> 00:27:57,310 own way with william i just have such a great 250 00:27:57,310 --> 00:28:04,170 way of interacting and we're so similar but yet the styles 251 00:28:04,170 --> 00:28:06,670 are different like our analysis is the same 252 00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:20,580 the chart in front of me that they didn't know it was oil some intraday 253 00:28:20,580 --> 00:28:27,220 and we went through that so that was very interesting and useful to students 254 00:28:27,220 --> 00:28:31,260 have received a lot of feedback on that so i just wanted to mention to those of 255 00:28:31,260 --> 00:28:37,540 you you know who who did not uh purchase the series number three i think it's 256 00:28:37,540 --> 00:28:41,180 definitely worth it for for those of you who are serious about tape and chart 257 00:28:41,180 --> 00:28:42,180 reading 258 00:28:48,110 --> 00:28:54,370 we probably can continue the same way you know teaching 259 00:28:54,370 --> 00:29:01,190 traders you know in that type of format so what we're gonna do in January is 260 00:29:01,190 --> 00:29:07,790 we're gonna create what we are calling the tape reading lab 261 00:29:07,790 --> 00:29:13,590 this is the place where William and I which is gonna come and we're just gonna 262 00:29:13,590 --> 00:29:14,590 analyze 263 00:29:17,130 --> 00:29:22,630 you guys through this interaction and constant like you know bombardment of 264 00:29:22,630 --> 00:29:29,090 you know of the charts with the analysis with our views and 265 00:29:29,090 --> 00:29:35,150 deductions you know we'll we'll definitely update you on what's going on 266 00:29:35,150 --> 00:29:39,310 current markets from the tape rigging point of view and also we'll go through 267 00:29:39,310 --> 00:29:44,030 the last week and we'll kind of like stop at interesting places and we'll 268 00:29:44,030 --> 00:29:48,440 about the analysis and the tactics and also we'll show you some of the trades 269 00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:53,820 you know that we did or so on so forth so i think it's going to be highly 270 00:29:53,820 --> 00:30:00,480 interesting because kind of 271 00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:06,640 kind of worked out miraculously this way so i think there is a lot of value so 272 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:13,100 consider that okay next one uh is there a way to detect net selling and buying 273 00:30:13,100 --> 00:30:14,300 at the edges of distribution 274 00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:36,580 In David's book, he has drawn a P &F chart with this volume inside the boxes. 275 00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:40,920 This is the ultimate P &F chart to trade from the intraday. 276 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:48,320 Really great perspective, David, and we will actually go 277 00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:49,360 through that chart today. 278 00:30:50,060 --> 00:30:51,580 So that was in the works. 279 00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:59,300 David talked about backing up action was very low line, similar to what Radon 280 00:30:59,300 --> 00:31:01,700 talked about in his presentation, Springboard. 281 00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:10,260 question there uh tests and whether we're testing supply demand based on the 282 00:31:10,260 --> 00:31:14,600 context okay interesting okay 283 00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:21,460 uh could you tell a bit more 284 00:31:21,460 --> 00:31:25,360 about the chart reading lab and how to get the enrollment information i'm very 285 00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:31,460 interested um yeah so guys we will send you the information so don't worry uh 286 00:31:31,460 --> 00:31:35,040 because william and i This is kind of like a very fresh, raw idea. 287 00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:40,580 We just kind of felt, both of us, like we want to work a little bit together 288 00:31:40,580 --> 00:31:41,580 more. 289 00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:45,500 And I think it's going to benefit our community. 290 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:52,760 So I think that we're going to start somewhere mid -January, end of January, 291 00:31:52,980 --> 00:31:55,280 which I just need to launch the whole semester. 292 00:31:55,780 --> 00:32:00,760 And then once the semester is launched, then we'll... 293 00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:06,020 We'll start working on that. It's going to be on Mondays at 9 a .m. This is one 294 00:32:06,020 --> 00:32:10,000 thing that William and I have discussed because both of our schedules are 295 00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:11,600 somewhat packed. 296 00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:18,440 But it seems to me that having that session during the U .S. session 297 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:19,399 is appropriate. 298 00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:22,420 We picked up the time specifically when the... 299 00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:36,700 pacific um and then the rest you know will send you the details okay i think 300 00:32:36,700 --> 00:32:42,900 that's it you know for the question so what i'm gonna do is i'm gonna keep 301 00:32:42,900 --> 00:32:48,880 questions in front of me just in case uh 302 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:54,080 some question pops up and um i will definitely 303 00:33:00,780 --> 00:33:01,780 the material. 304 00:34:13,540 --> 00:34:18,179 So first of all, you have to look at, you know, the whole structure where we 305 00:34:18,179 --> 00:34:19,178 are. 306 00:34:19,179 --> 00:34:22,520 So let's just say, let's start actually with the daily. 307 00:34:22,980 --> 00:34:28,560 So we're in some kind of this backing up action slash up thrust. 308 00:34:29,679 --> 00:34:35,080 It's always important to understand that you have to think about scenarios, 309 00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:37,600 right? So sign of strength or up thrust. 310 00:34:37,820 --> 00:34:41,080 Either a sign of strength is going to be, you know, holding. 311 00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:47,400 and then we're going to have a backing up action or up thrust is going to 312 00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:52,300 and we're going to see that action well we kind of negated up thrust at this 313 00:34:52,300 --> 00:34:58,600 point why because the price overcame the resistance of the buying climax and 314 00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:04,120 actually stayed there for quite some time right so we have one close two 315 00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:11,040 three four uh then another one right here um so around four to five 316 00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:17,600 closes what do i call progressive closes that they progress up with the new 317 00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:23,980 higher clothes um that kind of clears up on the previous commitment to the 318 00:35:23,980 --> 00:35:30,000 upside so usually that is the indication of the sign of strength it's an ability 319 00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:36,400 of the price to stay above the resistance which is extremely important 320 00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:41,830 know that it just shows that there is no selling or strong selling and yet if 321 00:35:41,830 --> 00:35:46,530 the selling comes you know that ability to stay above the resistance uh shows 322 00:35:46,530 --> 00:35:52,210 the capacity of absorption so for instance right here we see how on this 323 00:35:52,210 --> 00:35:56,470 supply has emerged that comes from the increased effort 324 00:35:56,470 --> 00:36:03,390 and also from this tail that we see at the point 325 00:36:03,390 --> 00:36:08,980 of the resistance from the buying climax so selling definitely came at that 326 00:36:08,980 --> 00:36:15,840 point and the biggest question when selling comes what's next is there going 327 00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:22,160 to be a continuation down attempts to go up and then a break and this would act 328 00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:28,040 as a confirmation that we are completely done so something like this where we 329 00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:34,920 have selling occurs and then there is a you know intermediate failure 330 00:36:37,130 --> 00:36:42,590 on the way down but the confirmation of that comes here when the price breaks to 331 00:36:42,590 --> 00:36:47,010 the downside the same you know this is a late confirmation and there are a 332 00:36:47,010 --> 00:36:51,970 series of confirmations that we see along the way but this is probably the 333 00:36:51,970 --> 00:36:58,050 most strongest confirmation where there is just this uh capitulation of the idea 334 00:36:58,050 --> 00:37:03,490 that the price is gonna go up so we still have to experience it somewhere 335 00:37:06,090 --> 00:37:11,310 confirmation of the break let's just say it i'll put it this way but initially 336 00:37:11,310 --> 00:37:17,590 on this bar right here we definitely see a path that shows sustainability of 337 00:37:17,590 --> 00:37:23,850 that move that showed absorption right away of that supply we're seeing how 338 00:37:23,850 --> 00:37:30,190 supply comes in what does the next day show us relatively high volume signature 339 00:37:30,190 --> 00:37:35,290 that is happening on the small bar 340 00:37:38,730 --> 00:37:39,730 Bullish or bearish? 341 00:37:39,930 --> 00:37:42,370 Definitely bullish. 342 00:37:42,650 --> 00:37:46,090 And it shows that there is some absorption of that supply. 343 00:37:46,470 --> 00:37:51,190 Well, if we are not sure about that, how about the day after? 344 00:37:59,150 --> 00:38:05,970 So, the day after, if we would see some kind of emergence of 345 00:38:05,970 --> 00:38:08,230 selling after the... 346 00:38:09,190 --> 00:38:15,510 successful task and day then we would have attempts to go down or the price 347 00:38:15,510 --> 00:38:22,210 go would go down but it doesn't and actually on a smaller demand 348 00:38:22,210 --> 00:38:28,050 signature look how how small this volume bar is 349 00:38:28,050 --> 00:38:31,170 we're seeing that the price is evil 350 00:38:34,990 --> 00:38:40,370 this is a higher close than the close of that supply day so what does it tell us 351 00:38:40,370 --> 00:38:47,270 it tells us that the price could move up with more ease ease of movement and we 352 00:38:47,270 --> 00:38:53,390 could call this an ease of movement day and ease of movement is usually 353 00:38:53,390 --> 00:38:59,970 indicative also of the supply if we're talking about the demand how come well 354 00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:13,080 what does it tell us about the supply it probably tells us that supply is 355 00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:20,000 exhausted or observed and those are 356 00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:25,800 two different definitions absorption and exhaustion so we have to remember that 357 00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:32,020 so on that day it just kind of like shows to us um you know it's it's you 358 00:39:32,020 --> 00:39:36,280 supply is um has been observed around these two bars 359 00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:44,420 and what was important about absorption of supply at this level is that it 360 00:39:44,420 --> 00:39:51,420 happened at the level where previously supply has come with some kind of 361 00:39:51,420 --> 00:39:58,240 presence right so on this bar specifically there was a lot of supply 362 00:39:58,240 --> 00:40:05,180 this was a change of behavior bar and then right here was a small climactic 363 00:40:05,180 --> 00:40:11,950 in of this upswing that also had some supply behind it not 364 00:40:11,950 --> 00:40:18,730 as much as a previous supply and i really like this price action why um 365 00:40:18,730 --> 00:40:25,390 if we would be thinking about the timing of the price getting out of the trading 366 00:40:25,390 --> 00:40:30,310 range we would be thinking that absorption first needs to happen at the 367 00:40:30,310 --> 00:40:36,590 level absorption number one then it has to happen at the higher level 368 00:40:40,650 --> 00:40:47,650 we also need to think that the timing will always coincide with the supply 369 00:40:47,650 --> 00:40:48,650 present. 370 00:40:49,230 --> 00:40:51,150 So what do I mean by that? 371 00:40:51,770 --> 00:40:58,470 Well, imagine that the price cannot 372 00:40:58,470 --> 00:41:04,750 really leave the trading range unless the majority of the supply has been 373 00:41:04,750 --> 00:41:05,750 observed. 374 00:41:10,990 --> 00:41:17,770 supply available, supply of shares, and they have the capacity to capitulate 375 00:41:17,770 --> 00:41:22,390 that supply and present it to the market. And that would produce a 376 00:41:23,070 --> 00:41:29,390 But if that supply is taken from weak hands away, then they cannot do this 377 00:41:29,390 --> 00:41:30,390 anymore. 378 00:41:30,550 --> 00:41:37,430 They can put on a short position, but it's not the supply that they have had 379 00:41:37,430 --> 00:41:40,090 purchasing the shares and then selling those. 380 00:41:40,910 --> 00:41:46,490 So the whole idea behind the composite man, composite operator, and the 381 00:41:46,490 --> 00:41:53,050 absorption is that composite man just collects the supply, puts it into 382 00:41:53,050 --> 00:41:59,510 its vault, and then does not present it to the market for a certain time. 383 00:41:59,770 --> 00:42:05,290 And during that time when that supply is not available, the price is able to 384 00:42:05,290 --> 00:42:07,330 create some kind of uptrend. 385 00:42:12,650 --> 00:42:17,710 what's going on with the absorption and the composite men and so on so forth but 386 00:42:17,710 --> 00:42:22,030 for you the most important thing here to remember we want to see the absorption 387 00:42:22,030 --> 00:42:28,810 of supply in the trading range at two levels we want to have the absorption at 388 00:42:28,810 --> 00:42:33,050 the lower level and we want to have the absorption at the high level so what was 389 00:42:33,050 --> 00:42:38,590 so encouraging with this bar is that supply occurred and then it didn't want 390 00:42:38,590 --> 00:42:45,130 go down so it tells us that instead of supply occurring 391 00:42:45,130 --> 00:42:52,110 and then we have movement down we have here more of 392 00:42:52,110 --> 00:42:57,490 the testing period which suggested continuation to the upside and that was 393 00:42:57,490 --> 00:43:04,330 of the call at the time what was also important on the micro level was 394 00:43:04,330 --> 00:43:08,230 the next bar so the next bar showed 395 00:43:18,060 --> 00:43:21,720 That selling has diminished, right? So, for instance, from the capitulation 396 00:43:21,720 --> 00:43:28,400 selling of this level right here, throughout all of the red volume bars, 397 00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:35,040 see how the volume signature went down. So, selling was 398 00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:40,880 left at this point of time. And that happens also at the high level of the 399 00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:45,120 trading range. So, that shows that selling has been exhausted. 400 00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:52,400 support level but also at the resistance level and what was the result of this 401 00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:57,180 bar that was the most important question and this is something that today we 402 00:43:57,180 --> 00:44:03,920 will be talking a lot about it didn't commit below the previous bar low 403 00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:08,860 which is important and this bar actually had some commitment to the upside 404 00:44:08,860 --> 00:44:14,540 relative to the bar before it did not commit below 405 00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:28,320 So this big bar contained the price action for the next three days into this 406 00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:29,299 bar. 407 00:44:29,300 --> 00:44:35,680 And therefore, the result was non -threatening bullish result, which was 408 00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:40,360 normal reaction on selling that was left and left. 409 00:44:40,580 --> 00:44:45,300 And that was happening at the point of the resistance. So we were expecting the 410 00:44:45,300 --> 00:44:46,300 move up. 411 00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:52,490 Now, as we go, and I said that there are quite a few bars where you could... see 412 00:44:52,490 --> 00:44:58,710 that commitment to the upside over previous significant bars and that is 413 00:44:58,710 --> 00:45:04,190 functionality of the sign of strength it's an ability to stay above the 414 00:45:04,190 --> 00:45:10,830 resistance even when supply occurs you know we kind of still stay there so 415 00:45:10,830 --> 00:45:16,850 four bars four days were very interesting in that perspective because 416 00:45:16,850 --> 00:45:19,390 into them everything looks okay 417 00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:31,240 came this high of what we would call an upthrust probe. 418 00:45:32,100 --> 00:45:33,520 Why do we call that? 419 00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:40,800 And I believe this is Gary Fullett's semantic, but I'm sure that he 420 00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:42,900 probably took it from somewhere else as well. 421 00:45:44,220 --> 00:45:51,220 We are probing higher prices, and we would like to see what 422 00:45:51,220 --> 00:45:53,440 kind of supply is coming in at that level. 423 00:45:53,770 --> 00:45:55,370 We saw that. We saw that absorption. 424 00:45:55,730 --> 00:46:00,450 And now we're at the higher level. So once we get to the higher level, look 425 00:46:00,450 --> 00:46:01,450 supply increases. 426 00:46:01,490 --> 00:46:07,890 So there is definitely some selling. And I think it's purely associated with not 427 00:46:07,890 --> 00:46:14,590 even the stimulus package that was kind of supposed to happen, was bound to 428 00:46:14,590 --> 00:46:21,250 happen. It's more about, again, the wave of COVID -19 infection, death 429 00:46:21,250 --> 00:46:22,810 rate that we have throughout. 430 00:46:23,470 --> 00:46:28,890 you know, the whole world, lockdowns that we're seeing that basically 431 00:46:28,890 --> 00:46:31,110 business and influence the revenue. 432 00:46:32,250 --> 00:46:37,890 So I thought that, you know, this is the volume signature, you know, for that. 433 00:46:38,270 --> 00:46:42,990 What was disturbing today in the market is the way, you know, how this bar 434 00:46:42,990 --> 00:46:47,270 unfolded. So, and we'll definitely have a look. But just to conclude our 435 00:46:47,270 --> 00:46:51,630 analysis here of the daily chart, for the bullish case scenario, 436 00:46:52,620 --> 00:46:56,580 Because we've seen how supply is present. 437 00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:02,040 And when supply is present, we always think about the result. 438 00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:07,300 What is the result? It looks like we had a lot of buying into the end of the 439 00:47:07,300 --> 00:47:12,680 day. And that buying brought the close, you know, still relatively at the high 440 00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:16,500 level. It's higher than the, you know, upthrust growth right here. 441 00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:21,580 But the failure of this bar will be significant. 442 00:47:23,690 --> 00:47:28,850 what's going to happen next is going to be very crucial so this week and next 443 00:47:28,850 --> 00:47:34,770 week we will have to see if we're going to start failing here and start going 444 00:47:34,770 --> 00:47:41,250 down we definitely have an 445 00:47:41,250 --> 00:47:47,290 opportunity even to come back to the trading range back to the trading range 446 00:47:47,290 --> 00:47:51,050 the most important support is obviously 447 00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:59,020 a support that held multiple times and became a significant support but we also 448 00:47:59,020 --> 00:48:05,700 have the support where absorption has happened prior to this right so to me 449 00:48:05,700 --> 00:48:12,180 level right here around 3500 that's the most important level right now to watch 450 00:48:12,180 --> 00:48:18,920 whatever happens in between you know of where the prices were let's say at 3735 451 00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:25,520 this is all you know consolidation, price movement, and so on and so forth. 452 00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:31,280 35, this is where absorption has happened before. 35, this is where the 453 00:48:31,280 --> 00:48:32,280 selling has come. 454 00:48:34,060 --> 00:48:36,980 This is something that I want you to concentrate on. 455 00:48:37,540 --> 00:48:44,180 So let's now go to the five minutes and see what kind of trades we had there 456 00:48:44,180 --> 00:48:45,180 today. 457 00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:47,960 I wasn't trading today. 458 00:48:50,570 --> 00:48:56,910 But I think that the most significant thing, I should say I wasn't intraday 459 00:48:56,910 --> 00:49:01,170 trading today. I'm still, you know, falling over 50 positions that I have 460 00:49:01,170 --> 00:49:07,890 currently, but in different timeframes, swing and long -term campaign positions. 461 00:49:08,070 --> 00:49:10,370 But sometimes I intraday trade. 462 00:49:10,570 --> 00:49:12,130 I like intraday trading. 463 00:49:13,250 --> 00:49:19,150 The structures, you know, kind of give you... The intraday timeframe gives you 464 00:49:19,150 --> 00:49:25,260 an opportunity to... practice structural analysis you know supply and volume 465 00:49:25,260 --> 00:49:31,800 obviously much faster so you know the feedback comes to you in a much 466 00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:36,040 a much faster way and obviously you know when we have a good move you know it's 467 00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:41,100 always a good money what was interesting about today is what happened after the 468 00:49:41,100 --> 00:49:46,040 close of the u .s session because at this moment right here on friday it 469 00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:48,140 bearish on the daily chart 470 00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:55,500 But yet, this rally into the close spoiled the whole bearish look. 471 00:49:55,760 --> 00:50:02,100 But then look what happens afterwards. Right away, on opening Friday night, we 472 00:50:02,100 --> 00:50:04,820 are going down. 473 00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:06,620 There is no lift. 474 00:50:07,100 --> 00:50:10,700 And then a sign of weakness, LPSY. 475 00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:17,460 That looks like, again, a very weak rally suggesting a downward movement. 476 00:50:19,050 --> 00:50:21,790 We go for a right overnight. 477 00:50:22,770 --> 00:50:28,690 And again, there are a lot of closures in Europe, specifically in the UK, 478 00:50:28,870 --> 00:50:35,410 London, and so on and so forth. So it is more related to that market, and 479 00:50:35,410 --> 00:50:36,670 we're seeing this reaction. 480 00:50:52,970 --> 00:50:58,110 as this reaction so we would be comparing it and as i was kind of like 481 00:50:58,110 --> 00:51:04,090 the market um i was thinking this was a really good point of entry right here 482 00:51:04,090 --> 00:51:10,730 and it reminded me uh of a trade that i did um i believe on thursday 483 00:51:10,730 --> 00:51:16,190 but that was with neotech so let me just quickly show you the structure 484 00:51:16,190 --> 00:51:20,350 i'm gonna show you that on let's say one 485 00:51:41,000 --> 00:51:46,920 So we're seeing here for NASDAQ, and S &P had a slightly different structure on 486 00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:47,920 that day. 487 00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:54,780 That first initials attempt to go up, fail, sign of weakness, LPSY, kind of 488 00:51:54,780 --> 00:52:01,040 reminds us of what has happened today in S &P, right? And then we have like a 489 00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:06,920 waterfall here into the climactic action, selling climax, and then the 490 00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:08,800 recovers, and then we have... 491 00:52:10,060 --> 00:52:16,140 of the same magnitude as the capitulation let down so what do we see 492 00:52:16,140 --> 00:52:22,840 structure in the context of the volume signature and the structure itself this 493 00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:29,340 type of action into phase c and then recovery and then continuation 494 00:52:29,340 --> 00:52:35,860 the volume signature went down supply decreased dramatically 495 00:52:35,860 --> 00:52:37,840 so look at 496 00:52:39,760 --> 00:52:46,600 the supply we have after a climactic action we have twice as less 497 00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:52,560 supply and it doesn't produce the you know a favorable result for the bearers 498 00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:57,520 creates a higher low we also look at the texture of the decline and we see that 499 00:52:57,520 --> 00:53:03,460 the spread is diminishing relative to the capitulation climactic run so that 500 00:53:03,460 --> 00:53:07,720 a very bullish sign so my trade was opened right here 501 00:53:10,990 --> 00:53:17,990 So it kind of reminded me of today's price action, where we've 502 00:53:17,990 --> 00:53:24,950 seen the same move down, second leg down into phase C, 503 00:53:25,130 --> 00:53:27,950 which is a high, a low. 504 00:53:29,170 --> 00:53:35,870 And from here, you just go up. And I thought that that was a very interesting 505 00:53:35,870 --> 00:53:39,450 recovery today, you know, everywhere. 506 00:53:40,030 --> 00:53:43,610 And obviously when you look at something like Rothwell, that was just 507 00:53:43,610 --> 00:53:44,610 incredible. 508 00:53:45,230 --> 00:53:51,930 There's just a lot of points there within the intraday structure of the 509 00:53:51,930 --> 00:53:53,390 the European session low. 510 00:53:54,130 --> 00:53:58,430 So that was a relatively easy trade to make. 511 00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:17,360 structure that i showed you i made a saying recovery sounds laborious so 512 00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:24,220 laborious well yes um you could definitely say that i mean we're talking 513 00:54:24,220 --> 00:54:30,860 this but you probably have to think about the recovery of this flow because 514 00:54:30,860 --> 00:54:37,460 you would be thinking you know the recovery how it happens first of all we 515 00:54:37,460 --> 00:54:41,040 to acknowledge that there was some buying on the way down we see all of the 516 00:54:41,040 --> 00:54:47,660 sales here then look at the momentum of the first two or three waves um 517 00:54:47,660 --> 00:54:54,300 there is a lot of momentum right there right so uh it's not like the recovery 518 00:54:54,300 --> 00:55:01,160 started with not a lot of momentum and then after the initial move 519 00:55:01,160 --> 00:55:04,140 down in the us session we still have 520 00:55:17,070 --> 00:55:23,890 of the abnormally after the after us option all open because you 521 00:55:23,890 --> 00:55:28,970 usually want to see this type of volume profile during the us session 522 00:55:28,970 --> 00:55:35,850 and this one had you know these bars these bars right here so 523 00:55:35,850 --> 00:55:41,550 whenever we see abnormality like this we always question you know why what's 524 00:55:41,550 --> 00:55:44,110 going on here well look at the result 525 00:55:45,230 --> 00:55:49,810 that's the most important thing what is the result of the bars that have that 526 00:55:49,810 --> 00:55:56,510 type of high volume signature well we don't have a really good progression to 527 00:55:56,510 --> 00:56:03,510 the downside and we are just kind of bringing below this 528 00:56:03,510 --> 00:56:10,290 support level and recovering right away so this feels 529 00:56:10,290 --> 00:56:12,790 like a spring with the 530 00:56:17,200 --> 00:56:22,740 into the account the magnitude you know the texture of the decline there was 531 00:56:22,740 --> 00:56:27,580 really like very heavy selling only on one bar and then after that everything 532 00:56:27,580 --> 00:56:32,640 diminished in terms of selling and i thought that that was a really easy uh 533 00:56:32,640 --> 00:56:38,320 trade today to the upside now i think i made it talking about this 534 00:56:45,100 --> 00:56:51,680 that there was some buying let's say in this area right here after that there is 535 00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:58,420 no aggressive buying we see that from the volume signature and we see that 536 00:56:58,420 --> 00:57:05,200 from the spread action as well but what's important is that to understand i 537 00:57:05,200 --> 00:57:10,960 is that we bought here they were buying on the way up here there was um 538 00:57:10,960 --> 00:57:14,260 definitely buying in this area right here 539 00:57:16,240 --> 00:57:22,700 So we saw buying, buying, and then after that, that buying exhausted 540 00:57:22,700 --> 00:57:23,700 supply. 541 00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:34,800 And when supply is exhausted, look at the volume signature. This is what we're 542 00:57:34,800 --> 00:57:39,340 going to have. The volume goes down, and supply goes down. 543 00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:43,980 And because supply is exhausted, 544 00:57:45,390 --> 00:57:52,130 can go up without a lot of demand so we could say that both supply 545 00:57:52,130 --> 00:57:58,170 and demand were exhausted after selling and buying buying has won but because 546 00:57:58,170 --> 00:58:04,870 both exhausted you know in in that in that moment of buying and absorption 547 00:58:04,870 --> 00:58:11,590 we don't have a huge volume signature in those type of cases we're going to say 548 00:58:11,590 --> 00:58:16,740 that there is some kind of ease of movement as the price goes up. With the 549 00:58:16,740 --> 00:58:21,420 of movement, the main thing in tape reading and in chart reading is just to 550 00:58:21,420 --> 00:58:25,320 recognize that indeed the price progresses to the upside. 551 00:58:25,860 --> 00:58:30,240 Can it overcome, let's say, the last commitment to the downside? 552 00:58:30,900 --> 00:58:36,540 Yes, it can. How did it do so? Because we don't want just, you know, kind of be 553 00:58:36,540 --> 00:58:42,740 at this very basic level of understanding that, you know, there is a 554 00:58:43,040 --> 00:58:45,080 We need to dig a little bit deeper. 555 00:58:45,900 --> 00:58:47,620 How did it break out? 556 00:58:48,400 --> 00:58:53,620 Did it extend way above the breakout area or not? 557 00:58:53,880 --> 00:58:58,620 And I would say that this is a very good breakout. It also had a marginal 558 00:58:58,620 --> 00:59:02,660 increase in the volume signature that suggests that demand was increasing and 559 00:59:02,660 --> 00:59:03,680 pushing the price up. 560 00:59:04,140 --> 00:59:07,920 Okay, well, what is the next level for us to overcome? 561 00:59:08,560 --> 00:59:10,000 Probably this bar. 562 00:59:10,650 --> 00:59:15,770 You know, this was the most important bar today in the U .S. session. 563 00:59:16,930 --> 00:59:18,730 It needed to be overcome. 564 00:59:19,530 --> 00:59:24,910 So we're seeing aggression of the breakout that brings us to about one 565 00:59:24,910 --> 00:59:28,970 that bar. And that's important because we know that, you know, there will be 566 00:59:28,970 --> 00:59:34,670 instances when this whole down bar will be covered by one bar because there is 567 00:59:34,670 --> 00:59:35,670 so much demand. 568 00:59:35,690 --> 00:59:38,250 But demand has exhausted itself already. 569 00:59:38,780 --> 00:59:42,700 Demand has bought in quite a lot of supply. 570 00:59:43,720 --> 00:59:49,580 So to me, this bar showed some aggression after the exhaustion by the 571 00:59:49,580 --> 00:59:55,360 itself. To have this capacity to break out like this and also to cover one half 572 00:59:55,360 --> 00:59:58,780 of that capitulation bar was impressive. 573 00:59:59,320 --> 01:00:00,880 What happens afterwards? 574 01:00:01,180 --> 01:00:07,240 Do we go down or not? We don't. And even when supply, marginal supply comes in, 575 01:00:07,690 --> 01:00:13,190 we're quickly absorbing that so we're seeing the absorption at a slightly 576 01:00:13,190 --> 01:00:20,130 level of the breakout and tape reading is really or 577 01:00:20,130 --> 01:00:23,890 chart reading is really about the unfolding picture 578 01:00:23,890 --> 01:00:30,770 how to explain that you 579 01:00:30,770 --> 01:00:36,450 could have a very definitive let's say point of entry 580 01:00:37,870 --> 01:00:43,850 happens afterwards is that um you're basically answering the question about 581 01:00:43,850 --> 01:00:49,970 about the follow -through after the point of the entry after the breakout 582 01:00:49,970 --> 01:00:55,430 the reversal whatever signal you are you know using there is there going to be 583 01:00:55,430 --> 01:01:00,590 enough follow -through for the price to continue its movement in the direction 584 01:01:00,590 --> 01:01:07,420 of that entry so you kind of start creating that spike of you know or tape 585 01:01:07,420 --> 01:01:13,900 -reading, chart -reading story as the price unfolds. And your goal as an 586 01:01:13,900 --> 01:01:18,060 and as a trader, as a tape -reader, as a chart -reader, is just to follow that 587 01:01:18,060 --> 01:01:24,580 story. And when the story starts to do something else, it kind of shows 588 01:01:24,580 --> 01:01:26,320 a different picture. 589 01:01:26,780 --> 01:01:32,620 That's when you understand that the change of behavior is upon us, and maybe 590 01:01:32,620 --> 01:01:36,100 even something more profound is the change of character. 591 01:01:36,940 --> 01:01:42,100 collapse of the structure is going to happen so if we would like follow this 592 01:01:42,100 --> 01:01:48,640 story we could see that the breakout has happened it acts as a confirmation of 593 01:01:48,640 --> 01:01:55,560 the reversal and buying that we we saw at the beginning of 594 01:01:55,560 --> 01:02:01,920 this move actually into the end of this downswing and then a testing 595 01:02:01,920 --> 01:02:07,600 so we're not going through the analysis of all of those bars but Those are the 596 01:02:07,600 --> 01:02:11,700 bars that show that conditions change, that change is happening now. 597 01:02:13,560 --> 01:02:17,740 Absorption at the higher level, then after the absorption, do we have a 598 01:02:17,740 --> 01:02:21,100 continuation? Yes. And we need to overcome this level. 599 01:02:21,340 --> 01:02:28,060 Do we do that? Yes, we do overcome it. And look at what we do when we overcome 600 01:02:28,060 --> 01:02:29,060 that level. 601 01:02:29,440 --> 01:02:34,640 The bars are not expanding, and the volume signature is diminishing. 602 01:02:36,140 --> 01:02:41,260 Initially, you would be thinking that's probably a deterioration of the demand. 603 01:02:41,500 --> 01:02:43,120 And you would be absolutely correct. 604 01:02:43,600 --> 01:02:49,380 Why? Well, because the result, characteristically, is showing 605 01:02:49,380 --> 01:02:51,500 that it's diminishing. 606 01:02:51,880 --> 01:02:55,280 And therefore, we should be expecting some kind of reaction. 607 01:02:55,860 --> 01:03:00,240 So, what kind of reaction do we have by overcoming this level? 608 01:03:00,740 --> 01:03:03,220 This one and this one. 609 01:03:04,080 --> 01:03:08,460 And then in between those two reactions, we have a bar that actually propels us 610 01:03:08,460 --> 01:03:15,360 up. And that closes at the higher level than the high of this big capitulation 611 01:03:15,360 --> 01:03:16,360 bar. 612 01:03:17,600 --> 01:03:20,120 Characteristically, is it bullish or bearish? 613 01:03:20,560 --> 01:03:23,260 We were expecting a reaction from here. 614 01:03:23,880 --> 01:03:30,260 It came as 1, 2, 3 or ABC structure, but it didn't go 615 01:03:30,260 --> 01:03:31,540 below this. 616 01:03:33,900 --> 01:03:40,520 So, therefore, this reaction shows bullish characteristics 617 01:03:40,520 --> 01:03:47,360 and suggests that supply is still 618 01:03:47,360 --> 01:03:48,560 exhausted. 619 01:03:50,980 --> 01:03:52,620 That suggests continuation. 620 01:03:53,160 --> 01:03:57,560 And how do we continue? What is the next thing that we need to do? 621 01:03:57,840 --> 01:04:02,340 Well, obviously, we need to overcome the next two levels. 622 01:04:07,120 --> 01:04:12,680 do we overcome this would tell us what's going to happen next would you say that 623 01:04:12,680 --> 01:04:17,740 this was a very strong breakout i mean relative to this first level i would say 624 01:04:17,740 --> 01:04:24,340 yes right so we're committing first above um you know maybe not as much as 625 01:04:24,340 --> 01:04:29,860 here at the beginning and that is also suggestive you know that breakout you 626 01:04:29,860 --> 01:04:33,960 know a commitment of the breakout suggest that even though we're gonna go 627 01:04:34,460 --> 01:04:37,360 It's not going to be as dynamic rally anymore. 628 01:04:37,980 --> 01:04:44,860 And we probably need to tighten up our stop losses as we go into the conditions 629 01:04:44,860 --> 01:04:50,080 that are going to be, you know, where Debiant is going to be, you know, so 630 01:04:50,080 --> 01:04:53,600 dominant or, you know, showing up so much. 631 01:04:55,020 --> 01:04:56,440 But we do commit above. 632 01:04:57,060 --> 01:05:02,280 Then the next test, again, acts kind of like the test that we've had before. So, 633 01:05:02,340 --> 01:05:08,780 again. bullish character of the test breakout out of that test again not that 634 01:05:08,780 --> 01:05:14,860 impressive suggesting that you know that demand is somewhat deteriorating and we 635 01:05:14,860 --> 01:05:20,460 are seeing a little bit of the supply at this point on this particular bar so 636 01:05:20,460 --> 01:05:27,400 let me just clean this up this bar right here was suggested that supply was 637 01:05:27,400 --> 01:05:31,460 coming in right away we want to see the test the test was okay 638 01:05:32,220 --> 01:05:36,800 But the breakout did not impress us. The next breakout does not impress us 639 01:05:36,800 --> 01:05:42,080 either. And then we have this bar right here, which is basically telling us that 640 01:05:42,080 --> 01:05:47,960 there is some kind of conclusion, small climactic conclusion 641 01:05:47,960 --> 01:05:51,700 to the action where demand is exhausted. 642 01:05:52,800 --> 01:05:57,560 Whenever that happens, and there was a question here, so let me quickly just... 643 01:06:12,810 --> 01:06:18,970 so the question was how do we conclude um or how we test right i think the 644 01:06:18,970 --> 01:06:23,890 question was about the test let me rephrase this how do we conclude that 645 01:06:23,890 --> 01:06:30,670 the end of the swing because if this is the end of the of the swing then 646 01:06:30,670 --> 01:06:37,490 this is the most optimal place to exit we want to kind of find 647 01:06:37,490 --> 01:06:41,790 that so we could have conditions where 648 01:06:43,740 --> 01:06:49,300 deterioration of the demand and then supply comes in and produces the bar 649 01:06:49,300 --> 01:06:53,580 this the change of behavior bar we could have 650 01:06:53,580 --> 01:07:00,360 deterioration of the demand and then sudden 651 01:07:00,360 --> 01:07:07,220 surge of the capitulation by by the weak hands as they are entering 652 01:07:07,220 --> 01:07:08,220 this position 653 01:07:39,980 --> 01:07:45,460 then the next bar acts as a change of behavior because as you would look at 654 01:07:45,460 --> 01:07:51,620 as you would look at the whole move 655 01:07:51,620 --> 01:07:58,500 since the low we probably had only two other bars that are somewhat similar 656 01:07:58,500 --> 01:08:05,080 to the bar in question and then look at how the volume signature has increased 657 01:08:05,080 --> 01:08:10,480 and we've already said that supply started to come in started to come in 658 01:08:10,480 --> 01:08:16,800 started to come in somewhere here on the climactic bar itself and then again so 659 01:08:16,800 --> 01:08:23,600 supply is subtle but it's coming in and this red bar now acts as a change of 660 01:08:23,600 --> 01:08:29,520 behavior so and therefore we expect from here some kind of reversal 661 01:08:29,520 --> 01:08:36,260 change of behavior kind of like a much of 662 01:08:36,260 --> 01:08:37,260 larger magnitude 663 01:08:38,250 --> 01:08:43,410 possible trading range so there is no reason for us first of all not to take 664 01:08:43,410 --> 01:08:48,470 profit and secondly not to consider exits in the position altogether so 665 01:08:48,470 --> 01:08:52,830 therefore i thought that these two bars were kind of like perfect for the exit 666 01:08:52,830 --> 01:08:59,010 if you miss that then just exiting on this bar and this bar 667 01:08:59,010 --> 01:09:05,870 would be probably the next exit that i would highly 668 01:09:05,870 --> 01:09:12,729 suggest and you should be done for the day at that point of time so that was 669 01:09:12,729 --> 01:09:19,529 main trade for today and hopefully that satisfies the question about you know 670 01:09:19,529 --> 01:09:25,510 going through okay something else 671 01:09:25,510 --> 01:09:29,050 really quickly that I want to mention and then let go 672 01:09:41,100 --> 01:09:45,260 like this um and obviously there is a lot of talk about tesla you know how it 673 01:09:45,260 --> 01:09:51,720 influences the move especially of the s p uh but tesla was not um you know 674 01:09:51,720 --> 01:09:58,640 i i think not the only reason you know why we had this move because tesla is 675 01:09:58,640 --> 01:10:05,240 not in the doubt you know tesla um you know it's not in other indexes uh you 676 01:10:05,240 --> 01:10:08,260 know it's entered uh s p and yeah 677 01:10:09,710 --> 01:10:16,610 in tesla to the downside and it kind of influences a lot 678 01:10:16,610 --> 01:10:23,490 the index first and with that by the way i'm kind of expecting maybe that with 679 01:10:23,490 --> 01:10:30,270 more of trading in tesla we're gonna see how volatility there might actually 680 01:10:30,270 --> 01:10:34,810 start to diminish doesn't mean that tesla is not gonna move up or down 681 01:10:36,620 --> 01:10:41,260 Diminishing volatility could be observed not only in consolidations, but in the 682 01:10:41,260 --> 01:10:43,160 direction of moves as well. 683 01:10:43,920 --> 01:10:50,500 So I would be noticing what is behaving well and better than, 684 01:10:50,580 --> 01:10:51,940 you know, other indices. 685 01:10:52,160 --> 01:10:58,200 So obviously, Russell has just been amazing, and it had an amazing run after 686 01:10:58,200 --> 01:11:02,560 self -thrust probe. It was the strongest, comparatively, index, you 687 01:11:06,320 --> 01:11:10,560 be watching, you know, what's going to happen here tomorrow and into the end of 688 01:11:10,560 --> 01:11:11,318 the week. 689 01:11:11,320 --> 01:11:13,420 Could we recover and continue? 690 01:11:13,680 --> 01:11:17,000 So the days are going to be acting as a test. 691 01:11:17,780 --> 01:11:19,480 So just a thought there. 692 01:11:21,320 --> 01:11:22,320 Okay. 693 01:11:36,910 --> 01:11:41,970 This is what we've done with some of our students in the Wyckoff Trading Course 694 01:11:41,970 --> 01:11:48,770 Part 2, which is the practicum. So, Trading Course Part 695 01:11:48,770 --> 01:11:54,370 1 is all about the knowledge. Trading Course Part 2 is all about practicing 696 01:11:54,370 --> 01:11:59,850 skill of recognition of the concepts that we've learned in WTC 1. 697 01:12:00,310 --> 01:12:04,270 Those are advanced students, you know, they all went through WTC. 698 01:12:06,890 --> 01:12:13,670 requisite for the practicum. So they're somewhat at a different level and 699 01:12:13,670 --> 01:12:17,850 it allows us to go through a lot of exercises during the session. 700 01:12:19,250 --> 01:12:26,030 One of the works that we decided to do in the spring semester of 701 01:12:26,030 --> 01:12:28,070 2020 is just to read the book together. 702 01:12:28,490 --> 01:12:34,490 And we've chosen David's book. I went to David at that time and I said to him, 703 01:12:34,550 --> 01:12:41,320 well, listen, this is what we want to do do you mind if you know do we have your 704 01:12:41,320 --> 01:12:46,420 okay and blessing to do that and he was really excited he said absolutely just 705 01:12:46,420 --> 01:12:53,200 let me know how it goes and so on so forth so we pick specific 706 01:12:53,200 --> 01:12:59,660 chapters of interest to students so we pick the chapter on the screen on the 707 01:12:59,660 --> 01:13:04,480 upthrust absorption chart started and then two chapters on tape reading 708 01:13:06,909 --> 01:13:11,870 So, what we're going to do today is we're going to quickly go through those 709 01:13:11,870 --> 01:13:14,450 presentations by all of these students. 710 01:13:15,650 --> 01:13:22,530 I did ask students today whether, you know, I could use their slides, you 711 01:13:22,530 --> 01:13:25,330 in this class, and a majority of them said yes. 712 01:13:25,570 --> 01:13:31,470 Some of them did not come back to me, you know, in the email, so I hope that 713 01:13:31,470 --> 01:13:33,190 this is okay. 714 01:13:34,920 --> 01:13:41,660 But I wanted to have this slide because for those of you who have not 715 01:13:41,660 --> 01:13:47,460 done this work, who have not read his book, this could be another way 716 01:13:47,460 --> 01:13:54,340 of working with that book 717 01:13:54,340 --> 01:13:58,060 or maybe to conduct some initial work. 718 01:13:59,120 --> 01:14:03,640 So you could just go through the slides. 719 01:14:04,510 --> 01:14:08,010 We're not going to do a lot of work around it today. 720 01:14:09,250 --> 01:14:14,830 I also want to say that for those of you who do not have this book, who have not 721 01:14:14,830 --> 01:14:18,170 read this book, please do. 722 01:14:19,350 --> 01:14:21,810 This is not just a tribute to David. 723 01:14:34,030 --> 01:14:40,830 wgc course number one we are uh the required material is hane's book the 724 01:14:40,830 --> 01:14:47,330 three uh top skills of uh for top trading three skills for top trading 725 01:14:47,330 --> 01:14:54,210 whereas uh you know in course number two it's more advanced material so 726 01:14:54,210 --> 01:15:01,090 david's book is more appropriate all right so the first one uh uh is chapter 727 01:15:01,090 --> 01:15:03,010 is on sprints from serger 728 01:15:04,330 --> 01:15:05,330 Thank you, Sergio. 729 01:15:05,490 --> 01:15:10,470 And let's definitely go through some definitions. Spring is a washout, 730 01:15:10,490 --> 01:15:17,190 penetration of the trading range or support level that fails to follow 731 01:15:17,270 --> 01:15:19,150 And this is a very important statement here. 732 01:15:20,050 --> 01:15:27,010 It's a temporary commitment to the downside that does not resolve in a 733 01:15:27,010 --> 01:15:27,889 down move. 734 01:15:27,890 --> 01:15:31,950 If you remember it like that, I think that would be sufficient. 735 01:15:33,480 --> 01:15:37,360 And obviously, it reverses and becomes an up move. 736 01:15:38,180 --> 01:15:44,140 So failure to attract new selling and failure to follow through, 737 01:15:44,380 --> 01:15:51,380 those are kind of the most important ideas. And also, a comeback of the price 738 01:15:51,380 --> 01:15:52,880 into the trading range. 739 01:15:54,660 --> 01:15:58,680 Again, this is how quickly I want to go through the slides. And then when you 740 01:15:58,680 --> 01:16:01,480 have those, you could be a little bit more... 741 01:16:02,510 --> 01:16:04,150 deliberate when you read 742 01:16:38,860 --> 01:16:45,360 Obviously, our risk increases relative to the risk when we buy the spring 743 01:16:45,360 --> 01:16:49,380 itself. So let's say we could buy the spring itself, we could buy the tap. 744 01:16:49,800 --> 01:16:52,980 And there are multiple spots here where we could buy. 745 01:16:53,280 --> 01:16:56,560 And there were quite a few questions on the points of entry. 746 01:16:57,000 --> 01:17:01,620 So this is a really great example for us to go through. So I'm just going to 747 01:17:01,620 --> 01:17:06,600 walk you through some of the points of entry that I would be thinking about 748 01:17:06,600 --> 01:17:07,600 in general. 749 01:17:07,760 --> 01:17:11,600 So there are different types of springs. 750 01:17:11,820 --> 01:17:18,000 So spring number three is going to be a spring with the low volume signature 751 01:17:18,000 --> 01:17:24,980 and very low penetration of the support. 752 01:17:31,420 --> 01:17:36,020 And usually the way how I show this to my students is that 753 01:17:40,390 --> 01:17:46,830 where there is a tail, an intraday tail that goes below 754 01:17:46,830 --> 01:17:48,250 the support. 755 01:18:13,320 --> 01:18:18,780 that all happens on low volume signature that is dimension so that suggests that 756 01:18:18,780 --> 01:18:25,620 supply is exhausted and there is no follow -through 757 01:18:25,620 --> 01:18:27,760 there's going to be no follow -through to the downside 758 01:18:27,760 --> 01:18:33,780 that would be our 759 01:18:33,780 --> 01:18:40,720 point of entry number one the second point of entry that 760 01:18:40,720 --> 01:18:41,720 we don't see 761 01:18:48,270 --> 01:18:53,490 Even though there are some last points of support here that come, you know, on 762 01:18:53,490 --> 01:19:00,170 the reaction in phase D, and we could say even that the test here could be 763 01:19:00,170 --> 01:19:04,810 labeled as last point of support. I usually label this as a test, but you 764 01:19:04,810 --> 01:19:06,610 label it as last point of support. 765 01:19:07,070 --> 01:19:10,430 What I mean by the last point of support is the higher low. 766 01:19:19,240 --> 01:19:23,600 type of entry you know you'll answer just based on the reversal there's 767 01:19:23,600 --> 01:19:29,700 nothing uh too much to that okay so let's talk about 768 01:19:29,700 --> 01:19:36,440 phase c and screen and the task points of entry and with 769 01:19:36,440 --> 01:19:41,680 this we're going to say that this is a screen number two so we said screen 770 01:19:41,680 --> 01:19:47,160 number three we said last point of support 771 01:19:50,000 --> 01:19:56,680 This is entry number one, entry number two, entry number three, a test 772 01:19:56,680 --> 01:19:59,600 of screen number two. 773 01:20:02,460 --> 01:20:06,380 So there are quite a few points of entry here that we could find. 774 01:20:06,660 --> 01:20:13,560 First of all, even though it's not advisable to buy screen number two, for 775 01:20:13,560 --> 01:20:18,420 of you who are more advanced could think through the logic of why it is 776 01:20:18,420 --> 01:20:19,420 possible. 777 01:20:19,660 --> 01:20:25,600 And you could actually differentiate between buying and selling on the way 778 01:20:26,060 --> 01:20:30,040 You could do that. And I'm kind of challenging you a little bit here, even 779 01:20:30,040 --> 01:20:31,340 though it's not by the book. 780 01:20:32,960 --> 01:20:34,000 But you could do that. 781 01:20:34,760 --> 01:20:37,600 Usually we would say that we would be buying a test. 782 01:20:37,920 --> 01:20:39,380 How would we be buying a test? 783 01:20:39,760 --> 01:20:43,100 Well, we want to see a high or low, and we want to see some kind of recovery. 784 01:20:43,720 --> 01:20:46,380 So these reversal bars... 785 01:20:51,180 --> 01:20:57,540 points of entry the local breakouts of those 786 01:20:57,540 --> 01:21:04,020 lows of the test are also possible points of entry for us 787 01:21:04,020 --> 01:21:09,400 so I'm gonna put here reversal bars 788 01:21:30,000 --> 01:21:36,520 of entry i mean there are a couple we also could enter on what i call a sign 789 01:21:36,520 --> 01:21:42,200 strength bar now a lot of my students when they come you know and i ask them 790 01:21:42,200 --> 01:21:47,420 what is a sign of strength you know the most common answer to that is usually 791 01:21:47,420 --> 01:21:54,160 well um it's the increase of the volume signature and 792 01:21:54,160 --> 01:21:57,780 increase of the bar of the spread so 793 01:22:02,190 --> 01:22:08,010 of strength bar but they don't give me the definition of a sign of strength 794 01:22:08,010 --> 01:22:12,650 rally and sign of strength bar and a sign of strength rally are two different 795 01:22:12,650 --> 01:22:18,150 things a sign of strength bar is a part of a sign of strength rally 796 01:22:18,150 --> 01:22:24,090 and indeed characteristically the sign of strength bar is gonna 797 01:22:24,090 --> 01:22:29,230 see the increase in spread and it's gonna see increase in the volume 798 01:22:29,230 --> 01:22:31,230 and from this chart we see both 799 01:22:32,780 --> 01:22:36,800 the increase in spread and we see the increase in the volume signature that is 800 01:22:36,800 --> 01:22:42,940 behind that increase of the spread a sign of trend bar is the point of entry 801 01:22:42,940 --> 01:22:48,000 you could enter the sign of strength bar at the close you could enter it on the 802 01:22:48,000 --> 01:22:53,240 test of that bar you could enter it intraday on the breakout so quite a few 803 01:22:53,240 --> 01:22:58,560 entries there as well so that's our fourth point of entry 804 01:22:58,560 --> 01:23:04,940 we want to buy a sign of strength bar before 805 01:23:04,940 --> 01:23:11,620 we hit the resistance we do not want to buy a sign of strength bar above 806 01:23:11,620 --> 01:23:17,120 the level of the resistance why because we know that the backing up action is 807 01:23:17,120 --> 01:23:22,600 going to come and it's going to not only come into the body of our point of 808 01:23:22,600 --> 01:23:29,000 entry bar but potentially could go even lower and get us out whereas the sign of 809 01:23:29,000 --> 01:23:31,180 strength bar in the middle of the trading range 810 01:23:32,780 --> 01:23:38,460 less of an opportunity to be violated and that's the whole thing you know 811 01:23:38,460 --> 01:23:44,780 the final strength bar okay well our next point of entry is going to be 812 01:23:44,780 --> 01:23:51,280 around the backing up action and the backup action could happen only in 813 01:23:51,280 --> 01:23:56,900 multiple ways here we see a very kind of like a relatively shallow backing up 814 01:23:56,900 --> 01:24:03,360 action and we see that the duration of it is very short so therefore 815 01:24:03,360 --> 01:24:09,260 you know you usually have this type of structures where you have a test 816 01:24:09,260 --> 01:24:16,000 of the supply that came initially and we see exactly that or we see a 817 01:24:16,000 --> 01:24:22,760 more pronounced supply that kind of becomes the trading range 818 01:24:22,760 --> 01:24:28,640 and then there is a third variation i'm not going to talk about this here that 819 01:24:28,640 --> 01:24:35,160 is a backing up action out of the apex formation, which has a very 820 01:24:35,160 --> 01:24:41,940 minimal result to the downside and has also the shortest duration 821 01:24:41,940 --> 01:24:44,820 out of all of the backing up actions. 822 01:24:45,480 --> 01:24:51,040 So here is our next point of the entry. So we want to enter on the reversal 823 01:24:51,040 --> 01:24:54,060 somewhere here, or within the structure of the trading range. 824 01:25:02,060 --> 01:25:08,300 local breakout of the backing up action so here and here 825 01:25:08,300 --> 01:25:15,300 so you kind of could see that the reason why i have so 826 01:25:15,300 --> 01:25:22,240 many scaled in positions usually is because i'm recognizing that there is 827 01:25:22,240 --> 01:25:28,440 a confirmation after a confirmation that comes on the way up through phase d 828 01:25:28,440 --> 01:25:33,680 and then going into phase e and you could use those confirmations as your 829 01:25:33,680 --> 01:25:34,940 initial points of entry. 830 01:25:35,380 --> 01:25:39,900 Once you've accumulated a significant position, then you just stay with the 831 01:25:39,900 --> 01:25:44,820 trend. But if the price reverses around the resistance in the upthrust type of 832 01:25:44,820 --> 01:25:51,620 manner, then you are not fully invested in the position and 833 01:25:51,620 --> 01:25:52,620 you're... 834 01:25:57,770 --> 01:26:02,170 So hopefully that covers multiple questions on the points of the entries 835 01:26:02,170 --> 01:26:05,510 confirmations. Let me just talk about confirmations a little bit more. 836 01:26:05,730 --> 01:26:07,990 So what would we consider a confirmation? 837 01:26:09,150 --> 01:26:15,270 Well, we want to understand the action itself first. So here is an action. What 838 01:26:15,270 --> 01:26:20,590 is an action? It's a potential spring where the price commits to the downside, 839 01:26:20,590 --> 01:26:24,270 and we want to see whether this is a temporary commitment or not. 840 01:26:24,650 --> 01:26:27,310 What would be a confirmation that this is a sprint? 841 01:26:27,710 --> 01:26:31,530 Well, we know that the price needs to come back above the support level. 842 01:26:32,270 --> 01:26:33,970 Here's your confirmation number one. 843 01:26:34,510 --> 01:26:39,390 Your confirmation number two is going to be in the testing action because if we 844 01:26:39,390 --> 01:26:44,550 have some increase of the supply, we need to find a place where supply goes 845 01:26:44,550 --> 01:26:49,890 or supply, let's say, stays the same, maybe even increases, but the result is 846 01:26:49,890 --> 01:26:50,890 low. 847 01:27:00,840 --> 01:27:07,300 of this screen plus test formation would tell us that 848 01:27:07,300 --> 01:27:12,560 supply has been observed to the point where the price could move up or 849 01:27:12,560 --> 01:27:17,680 to us that demand is present and it's capable of you know to push the price in 850 01:27:17,680 --> 01:27:22,440 such way that the breakout will happen so here's our confirmation number three 851 01:27:22,440 --> 01:27:28,380 then we want the confirmation as a sign of strength bar happens um that 852 01:27:28,380 --> 01:27:34,950 basically tells us that now the price could move through the trading range 853 01:27:34,950 --> 01:27:41,530 the spring and sustain those gains number four number five 854 01:27:41,530 --> 01:27:47,230 confirmation of the breakout multiple attempts to break out before 855 01:27:47,230 --> 01:27:53,430 concluded and failure could we break out in such way 856 01:27:53,430 --> 01:27:56,530 that would tell us that um indeed 857 01:28:09,480 --> 01:28:15,360 ability of the price to continue to move to the upside after the breakout this 858 01:28:15,360 --> 01:28:20,920 is very important for the definition of the sign of strength because it shows 859 01:28:20,920 --> 01:28:27,540 that there is buying beyond the levels of the resistance where supply has come 860 01:28:27,540 --> 01:28:33,820 before and put the price down confirmation number seven is the backing 861 01:28:33,820 --> 01:28:37,480 itself we are back into the support and when 862 01:28:41,230 --> 01:28:48,150 or we are breaking it and the price does not go down to the trading range a 863 01:28:48,150 --> 01:28:49,150 lot. 864 01:28:50,210 --> 01:28:55,550 So that's our confirmation number seven. And confirmation number eight, final 865 01:28:55,550 --> 01:29:01,510 confirmation, is the breakout of the backing up action, which suggests the 866 01:29:01,510 --> 01:29:03,450 resumption and continuation of the uptrend. 867 01:29:03,970 --> 01:29:06,790 So I want you to think in those terms. 868 01:29:08,110 --> 01:29:14,950 like a story develops as kind of price shows in volume price and volume shows 869 01:29:14,950 --> 01:29:20,630 uh their action interaction between each other and you constantly want to go 870 01:29:20,630 --> 01:29:24,550 through the structure and you want to say okay well now what's going to happen 871 01:29:24,550 --> 01:29:31,450 after the sprint tell do we see it is it a confirmatory test 872 01:29:31,450 --> 01:29:37,650 yeah so what's the next uh part we need to locally break out out of that 873 01:29:38,030 --> 01:29:41,590 Did we do that? Yes. That acts as a confirmation. 874 01:29:42,630 --> 01:29:47,890 Now the price needs to travel up and travel with a specific character. 875 01:29:48,270 --> 01:29:52,070 Expansion of the spread, expansion of the volume, expansion of the demand, 876 01:29:52,310 --> 01:29:54,450 presence of institutions on the way up. 877 01:29:54,690 --> 01:29:56,530 Do we have that? Yes. 878 01:29:57,230 --> 01:30:02,250 Next one, the break above the whole formation where previously we had that 879 01:30:02,250 --> 01:30:04,990 supply emergence and so on and so forth. 880 01:30:09,740 --> 01:30:16,360 like this you see uh through those confirmations 881 01:30:16,360 --> 01:30:21,100 that the uptrend is intact and you have more confidence you know to act on the 882 01:30:21,100 --> 01:30:26,820 positions uh and obviously just using those entry points that i've specified 883 01:30:26,820 --> 01:30:32,500 before okay uh what's the next point here um 884 01:30:32,500 --> 01:30:36,940 this i'm probably gonna skip so you guys 885 01:30:51,120 --> 01:30:56,540 go to the slides and then go to the book uh what kind of uh 886 01:30:56,540 --> 01:31:03,340 you know lows could we have as free i mean there are two 887 01:31:03,340 --> 01:31:09,980 structures that we're seeing here this is a slightly higher low so to me this 888 01:31:09,980 --> 01:31:15,500 acts as a potential screen that fails and doesn't have a lot of volume 889 01:31:21,520 --> 01:31:26,760 So we see an exhaustion of the supply throughout this whole picture. In this 890 01:31:26,760 --> 01:31:28,340 picture, we're seeing lower lows. 891 01:31:29,080 --> 01:31:33,300 So COVID reaction should remind you of this type of structure. 892 01:31:34,240 --> 01:31:40,420 Then, you know, at the end, obviously, 2008, 2009 low also had the same type of 893 01:31:40,420 --> 01:31:43,920 lower low structures. And we have quite a few of those just generally. 894 01:31:44,440 --> 01:31:48,960 So what does it tell us? It tells us that still there is some selling. And 895 01:31:48,960 --> 01:31:50,460 usually that comes, you know, 896 01:31:56,110 --> 01:32:00,890 that's still bearish and at the end of such a big big move to the downside 897 01:32:00,890 --> 01:32:07,090 usually the sellers raise the cash um and you know anything becomes social 898 01:32:07,090 --> 01:32:11,110 funding if you go to the corporate 19 low you're going to see that everything 899 01:32:11,110 --> 01:32:17,550 was sold right so bitcoin was sold gold was sold bonds were sold 900 01:32:17,550 --> 01:32:24,350 market was stocks were sold commodities were sold why 901 01:32:24,350 --> 01:32:28,140 everything was sold at the same time because they needed cash. 902 01:32:28,660 --> 01:32:34,420 Cash was the king at that moment of time. There is a moment like that in 903 01:32:34,420 --> 01:32:38,340 well. If you're going to go to the history, you know, into that 904 01:32:38,340 --> 01:32:43,540 2008, you're going to see selling of gold, selling of the stock, selling of 905 01:32:43,540 --> 01:32:45,100 commodities, and so on and so forth. 906 01:32:46,260 --> 01:32:51,520 Institutions just need money. They need cash. They want, at that point, 907 01:32:51,680 --> 01:32:53,220 preferable, you know, 908 01:33:03,370 --> 01:33:10,010 keep this so again just go through this yourself 909 01:33:10,010 --> 01:33:15,350 because we have quite a few slides here some of the important quotes you know 910 01:33:15,350 --> 01:33:21,690 from david this is probably the one that you guys remember for sure you can make 911 01:33:21,690 --> 01:33:26,930 a living by trading sprints of thrust i mean david most definitely coined this 912 01:33:26,930 --> 01:33:33,830 phrase and you could be thinking about this we were just doing the access in 913 01:33:33,830 --> 01:33:40,670 the practicum course where within the construct of let's say 914 01:33:40,670 --> 01:33:45,750 an uptrend which starts with the spring and usually we would be thinking yeah if 915 01:33:45,750 --> 01:33:52,550 I would just you know by the spring and then stay with with the whole 916 01:34:14,760 --> 01:34:16,720 Obviously, just smaller springs. 917 01:34:19,160 --> 01:34:25,000 But also you could have, let's say, a spring over a specific bar. Let's say 918 01:34:25,000 --> 01:34:30,000 bar commits to the upside, and then we have some kind of reaction. 919 01:34:30,340 --> 01:34:33,400 And that reaction undercuts that bar. 920 01:34:33,680 --> 01:34:36,660 And it's going to act locally as a spring. 921 01:34:36,960 --> 01:34:41,740 And to me, that's what this statement is about. It's not about those big 922 01:34:41,740 --> 01:34:43,120 structural springs. 923 01:34:44,520 --> 01:34:50,660 obviously that's you know how it was meant i think that you know 924 01:34:50,660 --> 01:34:57,400 david had a lot of understanding what kind of springs potentially 925 01:34:57,400 --> 01:35:04,280 we could see this spring basically is just a temporary 926 01:35:04,280 --> 01:35:10,920 commitment below the levels of buying and then a subsequent recovery so if we 927 01:35:10,920 --> 01:35:17,190 have a bar that commits to the upside then we have let's say multiple bars 928 01:35:17,190 --> 01:35:22,890 and one of them goes down and then quickly recovers it's acting as a spring 929 01:35:22,890 --> 01:35:29,810 itself you know that spring could come almost immediately or 930 01:35:29,810 --> 01:35:36,730 just later on but within the context of an 931 01:35:36,730 --> 01:35:39,330 upgrade you could find 932 01:35:49,930 --> 01:35:52,670 David called those sprints on the move really good. 933 01:35:53,130 --> 01:35:54,130 Okay. 934 01:35:55,990 --> 01:36:02,950 There is definitely a higher percentage of success for those sprints being in 935 01:36:02,950 --> 01:36:07,670 the uptrend, right? Because uptrend is going to be sustainable for quite some 936 01:36:07,670 --> 01:36:12,370 time. And sprints are going to happen there because somebody is taking 937 01:36:12,850 --> 01:36:17,690 demand deteriorates, and the price reacts down under its own weight, and 938 01:36:17,690 --> 01:36:18,690 supply comes in. 939 01:36:19,280 --> 01:36:23,200 So you're going to have some movements to the downside, but they're never going 940 01:36:23,200 --> 01:36:27,780 to produce a meaningful change of behavior until the final climactic 941 01:36:28,020 --> 01:36:34,180 So therefore, you know, whenever we have a spring as a short -term oversalt 942 01:36:34,180 --> 01:36:39,000 condition where we see some kind of weakness, our expectation is that it's 943 01:36:39,000 --> 01:36:44,980 to recover. Based on that expectation and on our observations, we could enter 944 01:36:44,980 --> 01:36:50,120 that spot, and obviously that would be a very low -risk high. probability trade 945 01:36:50,120 --> 01:36:57,100 okay so what else as i mentioned 946 01:36:57,100 --> 01:37:03,880 you know this spring idea is that we don't have a follow 947 01:37:03,880 --> 01:37:09,540 -through to the downside so to me this is always the question a sign of 948 01:37:09,540 --> 01:37:15,660 or a spring a sign of weakness or a shakeout so therefore 949 01:37:15,660 --> 01:37:20,810 when you see those situations, whether this is a sign of strength or upthrust, 950 01:37:20,890 --> 01:37:26,310 or a sign of weakness in a spring, always think about the follow -through 951 01:37:26,310 --> 01:37:29,530 direction of, let's say, an upthrust or a spring. 952 01:37:31,430 --> 01:37:35,630 Do we have a follow -through to the downside? If we do, maybe this is not a 953 01:37:35,630 --> 01:37:37,910 spring. Maybe this is a sign of weakness. 954 01:37:39,690 --> 01:37:42,110 Okay, and then this is also important. 955 01:37:42,350 --> 01:37:46,570 In the downtrend, I would just say this. 956 01:37:49,450 --> 01:37:56,190 don't even try to find a spring i mean find the spring after you establish that 957 01:37:56,190 --> 01:38:03,190 there is a sequence of capitulation selling climax some kind of trading 958 01:38:03,190 --> 01:38:10,070 range and then you have a spring those type of springs are you know have higher 959 01:38:10,070 --> 01:38:14,470 probability of the reversal rather than the springs within the context of the 960 01:38:14,470 --> 01:38:16,670 downtrend where you might have 961 01:38:18,570 --> 01:38:25,210 say a bar to the downsides like this and then 962 01:38:25,210 --> 01:38:31,170 some kind of trading range and then within the trading range a smaller 963 01:38:31,170 --> 01:38:37,490 that you have as spring but then it goes into an up thrust of this bar 964 01:38:49,840 --> 01:38:52,580 accumulation where you could see the science 965 01:38:52,580 --> 01:38:59,080 of 966 01:38:59,080 --> 01:39:02,400 accumulation and it could be just a local 967 01:39:31,240 --> 01:39:37,680 So spring number two is always going to be entered on the test, right? Why? 968 01:39:37,820 --> 01:39:41,620 Because spring number two is going to have an increase of the supply, whereas 969 01:39:41,620 --> 01:39:44,220 spring number three has a decrease of the supply. 970 01:39:44,680 --> 01:39:50,780 So that increase of the supply, as you guys know from WTC1, always needs 971 01:39:50,780 --> 01:39:55,900 testing. Testing always needs to come structurally at the high or low and also 972 01:39:55,900 --> 01:39:57,720 at the diminished supply signature. 973 01:39:58,460 --> 01:40:00,620 But we could have these two types. 974 01:40:01,290 --> 01:40:04,890 right so for instance supply has increased here so we want to see the 975 01:40:04,890 --> 01:40:11,410 either right away tab right here which is on the lower volume signature or 976 01:40:11,410 --> 01:40:17,970 somewhere here which is absolutely diminishes that signature when we do not 977 01:40:17,970 --> 01:40:23,490 you know a very high supply and i would say that this is still a relatively you 978 01:40:23,490 --> 01:40:26,830 know average high supply i would be thinking like something like this 979 01:40:29,840 --> 01:40:34,940 the supply characteristics we might have a much more aggressive action to the 980 01:40:34,940 --> 01:40:41,880 upside right away so just some character and here are some of those 981 01:40:41,880 --> 01:40:47,860 springs you know that we've talked about um you know on the way up you might be 982 01:40:47,860 --> 01:40:54,560 thinking okay um this is acting as a sprint after a sign of strength 983 01:40:54,560 --> 01:40:59,160 in the backing up formation it is a spring relative to this box 984 01:41:03,310 --> 01:41:08,950 the trading range but there's a significant bar it's a breakout bar you 985 01:41:08,950 --> 01:41:15,330 have let's say a spring like in this area right here here's a local spring to 986 01:41:15,330 --> 01:41:21,190 this smaller trading range or to those bars obviously much larger springs like 987 01:41:21,190 --> 01:41:27,910 this here's another spring here's another very very small spring right 988 01:41:27,910 --> 01:41:31,650 you could go through the whole chart and you could find so many of those 989 01:41:33,320 --> 01:41:39,020 right here um obviously this is just a very large structural structural spring 990 01:41:39,020 --> 01:41:46,000 um so you could see one two um not necessarily here but relative let's say 991 01:41:46,000 --> 01:41:52,880 this low this is a spring two three four five six seven eight eight springs 992 01:41:52,880 --> 01:41:59,660 on the way up that i just quickly identified and there are some more so 993 01:41:59,660 --> 01:42:00,660 context 994 01:42:40,330 --> 01:42:45,770 here that, you know, I would remember from this slide. 995 01:42:46,550 --> 01:42:48,990 Okay, how do you buy those springs? 996 01:42:49,270 --> 01:42:50,650 Limit order? 997 01:42:51,430 --> 01:42:53,530 Yeah, you could definitely do that. 998 01:42:53,950 --> 01:42:56,150 You don't have to buy the spring itself. 999 01:42:57,610 --> 01:43:01,910 You know, you could buy confirmatory signals which come after the spring. 1000 01:43:02,330 --> 01:43:07,990 And you don't have to buy the close of, let's say, a big confirmatory ball like 1001 01:43:07,990 --> 01:43:09,170 this. You could just... 1002 01:43:10,830 --> 01:43:14,790 here at the local level, and then get in on this bar after the spring 1003 01:43:14,790 --> 01:43:20,090 materializes. But you could definitely also do the limit orders as well. 1004 01:43:20,750 --> 01:43:27,650 I am personally working a lot right now in my trading on 1005 01:43:27,650 --> 01:43:33,050 the entries on the reactions that do have specific characteristics within the 1006 01:43:33,050 --> 01:43:34,470 context, let's say, of the uptrend. 1007 01:43:39,530 --> 01:43:43,810 i definitely would compare at those spots but also you could just buy the 1008 01:43:43,810 --> 01:43:49,490 right so if you see the spring buy it you know put the stop loss below uh and 1009 01:43:49,490 --> 01:43:55,190 you are correct on the context if you're correct on the definition of the spring 1010 01:43:55,190 --> 01:44:01,570 then you should be okay um and obviously sometimes it's gonna fail okay 1011 01:44:01,570 --> 01:44:08,330 um do you give much value to the intraday spring as to the to a daily 1012 01:44:09,520 --> 01:44:16,280 from david so um i think it depends just on the trade that you know you're 1013 01:44:16,280 --> 01:44:23,200 entering let's say if i'm entering a campaign trade which 1014 01:44:23,200 --> 01:44:29,960 i'm gonna hold on to for over a year then i'm definitely 1015 01:44:29,960 --> 01:44:35,200 gonna be looking more at the daily and weekly charts rather than intraday 1016 01:44:37,930 --> 01:44:43,570 intraday entry there if i'm very sure that this is the low but to me i would 1017 01:44:43,570 --> 01:44:50,010 prefer on the daily just to seek that confirmation uh because if this is a 1018 01:44:50,010 --> 01:44:55,450 campaign trade then the causality is huge and the effect is going to be so 1019 01:44:55,450 --> 01:45:00,050 pronounced that you know intraday movement would not make a big difference 1020 01:45:00,050 --> 01:45:05,150 know at the end of the trade but if i'm let's say doing a swing trade then for 1021 01:45:05,150 --> 01:45:06,710 sure i would go into the 1022 01:45:07,950 --> 01:45:13,030 price action and i would take the entry there and obviously if i'm intraday 1023 01:45:13,030 --> 01:45:18,370 trading that you know i would be looking for sprints on that level do you 1024 01:45:18,370 --> 01:45:24,990 recommend using the buy stops i use buy stops a lot again because 1025 01:45:24,990 --> 01:45:31,690 they usually put at the points of confirmations 1026 01:45:31,690 --> 01:45:37,010 then you know that allows me 1027 01:45:45,719 --> 01:45:52,700 ratio in my favor and kind of gives you a little bit 1028 01:45:52,700 --> 01:45:59,600 more confidence but again I think that you should have the strategies for 1029 01:45:59,600 --> 01:46:06,540 the entries that are both you know stop by Lehman buys market orders and you 1030 01:46:06,540 --> 01:46:13,480 should understand which order you would use whatever scenario okay let's go 1031 01:46:13,480 --> 01:46:14,480 to the next chapter 1032 01:46:23,690 --> 01:46:30,630 i want it so let's go through this really fast so what is 1033 01:46:30,630 --> 01:46:35,170 an upfront that's when the price moves above the line of the resistance and 1034 01:46:35,170 --> 01:46:41,590 fails to follow through such as a failed breakout could be another name for the 1035 01:46:41,590 --> 01:46:46,770 up thrust so something like this we're committing to the upside and then we are 1036 01:46:46,770 --> 01:46:51,030 going down so my definition of an up thrust is 1037 01:46:52,430 --> 01:46:57,550 temporary commitment above an almost immediate failure back into the trading 1038 01:46:57,550 --> 01:47:04,190 range or below the resistance upthrust at 1039 01:47:04,190 --> 01:47:09,390 spring could be of different character they could look differently right so we 1040 01:47:09,390 --> 01:47:14,410 could have an upthrust like this this is what we were discussing in the market 1041 01:47:14,410 --> 01:47:19,130 outlook at the beginning of the session right so usually i would call this an 1042 01:47:19,130 --> 01:47:21,490 upthrust pro so the price 1043 01:47:26,600 --> 01:47:32,600 the up thrust where we have a commitment up and then it fails we could have an 1044 01:47:32,600 --> 01:47:39,160 up thrust where we might have actually you know quite um you know a few bars 1045 01:47:39,160 --> 01:47:44,580 so in the key here is to understand how many progressive closes to the upside we 1046 01:47:44,580 --> 01:47:48,180 have i usually do not like to see an upthrust 1047 01:47:51,210 --> 01:47:53,610 closes up that are progressing to the upside. 1048 01:47:53,890 --> 01:47:56,250 That usually tells me that this is a sign of strength. 1049 01:47:57,370 --> 01:48:03,690 But whenever we have somewhat of a quick move up, quick commitment, and then 1050 01:48:03,690 --> 01:48:06,410 almost immediate failure, that would be a threat. 1051 01:48:08,350 --> 01:48:12,570 I like this analogy with the rocket just going this way. 1052 01:48:12,970 --> 01:48:18,730 So there is a lot of that type of action where the rocket is 1053 01:48:22,790 --> 01:48:28,930 deteriorates momentum deteriorates and then the price falls and then the speed 1054 01:48:28,930 --> 01:48:35,510 increases velocity increases on the way down so it makes a lot of sense to me um 1055 01:48:35,510 --> 01:48:42,070 okay upfront could have some retests right so 1056 01:48:42,070 --> 01:48:43,630 let's just say that 1057 01:48:54,030 --> 01:48:59,630 have a complex structure as well so those are more advanced complex you know 1058 01:48:59,630 --> 01:49:03,430 discussions that we would have so today i'm not going to go in there 1059 01:49:03,430 --> 01:49:09,970 okay 1060 01:49:09,970 --> 01:49:13,570 let's okay 1061 01:49:13,570 --> 01:49:20,190 so this is an interesting 1062 01:49:20,190 --> 01:49:23,050 point full upthrust um so 1063 01:49:23,980 --> 01:49:30,060 of talking about the same thing which is using different semantics right so a 1064 01:49:30,060 --> 01:49:35,360 failed up thrust is an element of absorption and we saw that from the 1065 01:49:35,360 --> 01:49:40,360 outlook right that bar where supply has come in we're calling it an up thrust 1066 01:49:40,360 --> 01:49:47,220 pro then test test and continuation to the upside so this is 1067 01:49:47,220 --> 01:49:54,200 an ability to drop not just back into the trading range but you know drop 1068 01:49:54,200 --> 01:49:56,120 down to the level of the support. 1069 01:49:58,340 --> 01:50:03,820 And after testing, the price actually goes up. So the up thrust failed. And 1070 01:50:03,820 --> 01:50:05,660 is a failed up thrust? 1071 01:50:24,040 --> 01:50:28,520 you could have up thrusts that are going to have increase in the volume 1072 01:50:28,520 --> 01:50:34,840 signature for sure you could have up thrusts that are gonna come as a 1073 01:50:34,840 --> 01:50:39,300 deterioration of the demand we could feel how the volume signature diminishes 1074 01:50:39,300 --> 01:50:44,740 here and demand diminishes and yet you know we're trying to commit uh to the 1075 01:50:44,740 --> 01:50:50,940 upside usually the next bar to the downside this is where the emergence of 1076 01:50:50,940 --> 01:50:51,940 volume is going to be 1077 01:50:52,650 --> 01:50:57,570 the emergence of the supply we could have up thrust that are going to have 1078 01:50:57,570 --> 01:51:03,130 already high volume signatures and usually those are going to be up thrust 1079 01:51:03,130 --> 01:51:09,270 we see that the ceo is selling into the strength of weak hands and that selling 1080 01:51:09,270 --> 01:51:11,570 actually started to occur here first 1081 01:51:21,040 --> 01:51:26,020 So in this type of situation, we want to measure that strength of selling by 1082 01:51:26,020 --> 01:51:28,540 shortening of the thrust. That's going to be very important. 1083 01:51:29,420 --> 01:51:35,980 Or we want to measure the selling of the demand, in the second case here, 1084 01:51:36,080 --> 01:51:39,220 also by the deterioration of the demand. 1085 01:51:46,060 --> 01:51:48,640 The different ways of how... 1086 01:51:50,440 --> 01:51:57,420 unfold i think that you know to me here what's really important is this bar 1087 01:51:57,420 --> 01:52:03,640 right here it kind of shows what's going on where 1088 01:52:03,640 --> 01:52:10,600 the volume signature increases i think is 1089 01:52:10,600 --> 01:52:17,560 this the bar yes i think so yeah 1090 01:52:17,560 --> 01:52:24,410 so the volume signature increases uh why because we're breaking out and 1091 01:52:24,410 --> 01:52:30,950 we've seen that supplies coming in so short sell is seen as almost like a mean 1092 01:52:30,950 --> 01:52:36,590 reversion it's above the resistance so every time the price comes to this level 1093 01:52:36,590 --> 01:52:42,170 goes down comes to this level goes down so they're going to short into this 1094 01:52:42,170 --> 01:52:48,230 abnormality by the price we could see the tail here right away and then after 1095 01:52:48,230 --> 01:52:49,230 that selling 1096 01:52:50,030 --> 01:52:55,130 look at what volume is doing. We really don't have a lot of follow through to 1097 01:52:55,130 --> 01:52:56,450 the upside after that. 1098 01:52:57,490 --> 01:53:04,430 And the change of behavior bar did not require a lot of volume signature, which 1099 01:53:04,430 --> 01:53:06,970 also tells us that demand is exhausted. 1100 01:53:07,270 --> 01:53:13,230 And demand was exhausted just pushing the price out when supply came and 1101 01:53:13,230 --> 01:53:16,690 consumed all of that demand. After that, demand is weak. 1102 01:53:18,600 --> 01:53:25,260 it doesn't require a lot of supply to produce an ease of movement so 1103 01:53:25,260 --> 01:53:30,440 kind of like an ease of movement after the up thrust and then supply occurs 1104 01:53:47,980 --> 01:53:49,240 context of the downtrend. 1105 01:53:49,600 --> 01:53:55,960 And we could also mention that you are going to have quite a few upthrust in 1106 01:53:55,960 --> 01:53:59,640 uptrend. It's just that they are not going to be as significant. 1107 01:54:00,600 --> 01:54:07,220 They're going to in a way fail as spring failed in the 1108 01:54:07,220 --> 01:54:14,060 downtrend. So you are going to have instances where upthrust action takes 1109 01:54:14,060 --> 01:54:17,180 place in smaller consolidations. 1110 01:54:18,480 --> 01:54:22,240 And then they are not going to produce significant moves down. They're just 1111 01:54:22,240 --> 01:54:28,060 going to produce temporary supply conditions that are going to push the 1112 01:54:28,060 --> 01:54:34,860 down potentially into a spring situation. Look at this spring. Look at 1113 01:54:34,860 --> 01:54:36,940 spring. Look at this spring. 1114 01:54:37,460 --> 01:54:38,480 This spring. 1115 01:54:39,320 --> 01:54:40,320 This spring. 1116 01:54:40,560 --> 01:54:43,440 And then the price is going to recover in the uptrend. 1117 01:54:43,640 --> 01:54:45,120 In the downtrend... 1118 01:54:58,800 --> 01:55:04,140 And this is just should be, you know, that idea that you could make a living 1119 01:55:04,140 --> 01:55:10,040 trading strength and upthrust. This should be a convincing strategy for you 1120 01:55:10,040 --> 01:55:16,900 create your trading around those temporary commitments above 1121 01:55:16,900 --> 01:55:22,460 or below support and resistance levels in the context of the of the trend. 1122 01:55:23,700 --> 01:55:25,860 Obviously, you know, this was the 2000. 1123 01:55:26,440 --> 01:55:30,940 7 big reversal as an upthrust. 1124 01:55:31,600 --> 01:55:36,000 But then on the way down, and this is the weekly chart, look into this area 1125 01:55:36,000 --> 01:55:37,000 right here. 1126 01:55:37,460 --> 01:55:41,760 Here is your local spring behind this bar. 1127 01:55:41,980 --> 01:55:48,160 This is a breakout bar. This is one of the most important bars in this 1128 01:55:48,160 --> 01:55:49,240 distributional structure. 1129 01:55:49,580 --> 01:55:55,060 And then we have a small upthrust that works out beautifully. 1130 01:55:57,360 --> 01:56:03,660 Extension of the move after that in the downtrend environment is definitely akin 1131 01:56:03,660 --> 01:56:10,260 to these local sprints that come in the uptrend. So hopefully that is 1132 01:56:10,260 --> 01:56:16,380 sufficient view for you to 1133 01:56:16,380 --> 01:56:23,100 actually follow that idea of trading the sprints in the 1134 01:56:23,100 --> 01:56:27,020 uptrend and trading the uptrend in the downtrend. 1135 01:56:57,100 --> 01:57:01,680 and this was on absorption so absorption let's see how david describes 1136 01:57:01,680 --> 01:57:06,640 absorption process through which long liquidation profit taken or new short 1137 01:57:06,640 --> 01:57:13,140 selling overcome and absorption could happen 1138 01:57:13,140 --> 01:57:19,440 at different levels and 1139 01:57:19,440 --> 01:57:24,560 absorption is not only happening and this is kind of like a big mistake that 1140 01:57:24,560 --> 01:57:25,560 see 1141 01:57:26,480 --> 01:57:31,940 absorption is not just an element of the accumulation or reaccumulation trading 1142 01:57:31,940 --> 01:57:37,600 range absorption could happen in the uptrend as well so for instance we could 1143 01:57:37,600 --> 01:57:43,120 have as i mentioned absorption at the lower level in the accumulation range 1144 01:57:43,120 --> 01:57:49,080 absorption at the higher level in the accumulation range then let's say 1145 01:57:49,080 --> 01:57:54,740 absorption on the way up as we are breaking out absorption 1146 01:57:59,240 --> 01:58:05,080 let's say on the way up absorption in the reaccumulation let's say in phase a 1147 01:58:05,080 --> 01:58:10,880 and then in phase c and then continuation so there are quite a few 1148 01:58:10,880 --> 01:58:17,860 absorption can take place it's not just a function 1149 01:58:17,860 --> 01:58:24,660 of the accumulation of reaccumulation range whenever supply occurs in the 1150 01:58:24,660 --> 01:58:29,200 uptrend it would have to be observed let me just give you even this thought 1151 01:58:29,200 --> 01:58:35,460 there is a temporary absorption in the downtrends so for instance 1152 01:58:35,460 --> 01:58:42,020 if we go down and then we have some kind of intermediate selling climax it's a 1153 01:58:42,020 --> 01:58:45,600 temporary absorption that we are seeing 1154 01:58:45,600 --> 01:58:52,600 where for some hand this is the point of 1155 01:58:52,600 --> 01:58:55,480 value and they are coming in and they are buying 1156 01:58:57,520 --> 01:59:02,620 price from more and further down and uh goes into the change of behavior change 1157 01:59:02,620 --> 01:59:06,060 of character and then we go into the trading range and then continue to the 1158 01:59:06,060 --> 01:59:11,540 downside but at this point right here there was that temporary absorption so 1159 01:59:11,540 --> 01:59:17,680 there are quite a few um you know ways of how we could see 1160 01:59:17,680 --> 01:59:24,460 absorption on the chart okay so this i'm gonna well actually 1161 01:59:24,460 --> 01:59:25,460 this is important 1162 01:59:27,630 --> 01:59:30,950 These are clues pointing to the successful absorption. 1163 01:59:32,590 --> 01:59:35,190 So rising support, very important. 1164 01:59:35,750 --> 01:59:42,510 We should see that as the supply comes in. We could see the initial reaction of 1165 01:59:42,510 --> 01:59:49,450 the price, but then we should see rising prices and that raise support 1166 01:59:49,450 --> 01:59:50,209 as well. 1167 01:59:50,210 --> 01:59:56,210 Volume increases at the top of the absorption area, at the top of the 1168 01:59:56,210 --> 02:00:02,960 absorption. area so let's say supply comes in and we 1169 02:00:02,960 --> 02:00:09,940 have some kind of absorption we want to understand that the there is 1170 02:00:09,940 --> 02:00:14,080 and I wouldn't say that you know specifically at the top I would just say 1171 02:00:14,080 --> 02:00:20,880 the volume increase in general is going to indicate that supply was present 1172 02:00:20,880 --> 02:00:22,300 and that demand 1173 02:00:23,370 --> 02:00:27,510 and absorb that supply and then demand come in a little bit more and push the 1174 02:00:27,510 --> 02:00:34,070 price up so just in general the volume signature is going to increase but i 1175 02:00:34,070 --> 02:00:37,770 wouldn't say that specifically it's going to be at the top of the absorption 1176 02:00:37,770 --> 02:00:41,010 at the bottom because you know absorption obviously could happen also 1177 02:00:41,010 --> 02:00:47,810 bottom lack of downward follow -through after threatening a price bar 1178 02:00:47,810 --> 02:00:54,230 and this is very common so for instance we could be thinking about support and 1179 02:00:54,230 --> 02:01:01,010 just a big bar to the downside where there is a lot of volume where there is 1180 02:01:01,010 --> 02:01:07,850 lot of supply but would we why did we stop here at the support well 1181 02:01:07,850 --> 02:01:14,790 the opposite force was present and it stepped in 1182 02:01:14,790 --> 02:01:19,570 demand stepped in and absorbed the supply to the point where the stopping 1183 02:01:19,570 --> 02:01:24,290 has occurred and then from here obviously we don't want to see a follow 1184 02:01:24,290 --> 02:01:28,990 -through. Or if there is a follow -through, in some cases, we want to see 1185 02:01:28,990 --> 02:01:34,590 negligent, you know, bearish texture where maybe the spread diminishes and 1186 02:01:34,590 --> 02:01:37,270 suggests that we're going to have some kind of rally. 1187 02:01:39,450 --> 02:01:43,830 Okay, at the right -hand side of the absorption area, price tends to press 1188 02:01:43,830 --> 02:01:46,210 against the resistance line without giving ground. 1189 02:01:46,830 --> 02:01:50,430 So this is a feather type of situation. 1190 02:01:51,040 --> 02:01:55,540 let's say supply increases on the way down but then absorption happens on the 1191 02:01:55,540 --> 02:02:02,400 way uh down where demand increases and then incrementally supply still comes in 1192 02:02:02,400 --> 02:02:08,740 still comes in still comes in but it's less than what we've seen before and 1193 02:02:08,740 --> 02:02:15,700 absorption happens of that supply and demand just pushes the price up 1194 02:02:21,759 --> 02:02:28,520 feather a feather action and then as it comes to the resistance 1195 02:02:28,520 --> 02:02:35,320 it comes to the point where first supply has been absorbed significantly already 1196 02:02:35,320 --> 02:02:40,680 and then we are at the structural point where we need to have a breakout so this 1197 02:02:40,680 --> 02:02:43,680 breakout usually happens with a lot of momentum 1198 02:03:01,420 --> 02:03:07,140 phase is resolved by a spring and to me the spring action 1199 02:03:07,140 --> 02:03:14,120 is just basically an idea that whatever latest supply 1200 02:03:14,120 --> 02:03:19,240 at the support level so let's just talk about the absorption at the support 1201 02:03:19,240 --> 02:03:20,240 level 1202 02:03:35,310 --> 02:03:42,170 itself so this is going to be uh initial opening of the position by the 1203 02:03:42,170 --> 02:03:46,910 big interest so therefore there's a lot of demand at that point that stops the 1204 02:03:46,910 --> 02:03:53,210 price from moving further down and then they could also buy on the way up but 1205 02:03:53,210 --> 02:03:56,850 not necessarily through the whole rally maybe into the middle of the trading 1206 02:03:56,850 --> 02:04:02,450 range and then they're going to stop that buying is going to produce some 1207 02:04:02,450 --> 02:04:03,490 of follow -through momentum 1208 02:04:04,300 --> 02:04:08,600 into the high of the automatic rally and then the price is going to fall as it 1209 02:04:08,600 --> 02:04:15,120 falls we could see some absorption at the lower levels of the support and then 1210 02:04:15,120 --> 02:04:21,760 again imagine that for the price to move up we need to observe let's say 1211 02:04:21,760 --> 02:04:28,360 100 units of supply that's what we need to do 1212 02:04:28,360 --> 02:04:33,650 that's what needs to be done at the level of the support and let's say into 1213 02:04:33,650 --> 02:04:40,450 phase b we are maybe like at 75 units that are in strong hands right 1214 02:04:40,450 --> 02:04:46,250 now so the remaining 25 units of the supply does not allow the price to leave 1215 02:04:46,250 --> 02:04:52,890 the trading just because it's it's there it's available and as the price starts 1216 02:04:52,890 --> 02:04:59,290 to go down into phase c we might see that emergence of that remaining 1217 02:05:05,390 --> 02:05:11,410 my students that that last supply that emerges 1218 02:05:11,410 --> 02:05:18,330 once it's observed it shows the timing of when the price is going to leave the 1219 02:05:18,330 --> 02:05:24,570 trading range and that last supply could be at the level of the support 1220 02:05:24,570 --> 02:05:31,550 and also at the level of the resistance once both are done once the 1221 02:05:31,550 --> 02:05:36,260 latest supply at the level of the support and supply at the level of the 1222 02:05:36,260 --> 02:05:42,500 resistance are observed then we go into the uptrend and that process kind of 1223 02:05:42,500 --> 02:05:49,340 repeats over and over again um okay uh clues 1224 02:05:49,340 --> 02:05:55,720 of the absorption of the bind you guys maybe could do this by yourself but 1225 02:05:55,720 --> 02:06:01,400 really quickly again you know just what do we see inability of the price to 1226 02:06:01,400 --> 02:06:07,180 rally away from the danger points right um heavy volume um 1227 02:06:07,180 --> 02:06:13,560 failed springs 1228 02:06:13,560 --> 02:06:20,420 okay great david is asking how do you know only 25 units are left based 1229 02:06:20,420 --> 02:06:25,380 on the volume uh signature no david that was more hypothetical you know kind of 1230 02:06:25,380 --> 02:06:32,000 example of um i don't know exactly how much volume is left but if let's say 1231 02:06:34,410 --> 02:06:40,990 signature shows something like this I know that 1232 02:06:40,990 --> 02:06:47,730 relative to phase a supply has diminished right 1233 02:06:47,730 --> 02:06:54,330 but it produced that local splash where supply has increased so this is the 1234 02:06:54,330 --> 02:07:00,650 last supply at the support level that needs to be consumed 1235 02:07:00,650 --> 02:07:02,810 absorbed before 1236 02:07:03,690 --> 02:07:10,170 price starts to move up you know significantly and you could find this on 1237 02:07:10,170 --> 02:07:17,030 time frame as well and even as a part of an uptrend same for 1238 02:07:17,030 --> 02:07:23,090 the you know distributional characteristics as well okay you guys go 1239 02:07:23,090 --> 02:07:27,730 this yourself so it's 5 10 i want to make sure that we get to some exercises 1240 02:07:27,730 --> 02:07:33,370 this is probably one of the uh you know best works concepts that david presented 1241 02:07:33,440 --> 02:07:34,440 to us. 1242 02:07:34,520 --> 02:07:41,440 I have something similar, and we all do, all of the teachers of the Wyckoff 1243 02:07:41,440 --> 02:07:43,520 methodology where we discuss the structures. 1244 02:07:43,800 --> 02:07:50,740 I think the key here to understand is if this is the sprint, what would be a 1245 02:07:50,740 --> 02:07:56,860 confirmation, a test, and then a continuation through the trading range? 1246 02:07:56,860 --> 02:07:59,740 would be a failure, a follow -through to the downside? 1247 02:08:02,830 --> 02:08:09,570 resistance level what would act as the confirmation after the breakout um an 1248 02:08:09,570 --> 02:08:15,330 ability of the price to stay above the resistance and where resistance acts as 1249 02:08:15,330 --> 02:08:21,750 support and then recovery recovery and resumption of the uptrend this is you 1250 02:08:21,750 --> 02:08:26,970 know this is going to be important so and i would definitely just study this a 1251 02:08:26,970 --> 02:08:27,970 little bit to understand 1252 02:09:05,290 --> 02:09:09,730 of shows that you know we've talked a lot about absorption at the support 1253 02:09:09,730 --> 02:09:15,550 right so whereas that absorption happens already in this area we're seeing some 1254 02:09:15,550 --> 02:09:21,310 absorption this bar right here x is an absorption we see some buying on these 1255 02:09:21,310 --> 02:09:28,230 two bars then we're seeing some buying here then we're seeing buying on this 1256 02:09:28,230 --> 02:09:29,230 right here 1257 02:09:51,950 --> 02:09:58,710 port level and then as we go into phase c we have this lost supply 1258 02:09:58,710 --> 02:10:05,430 that is being observed and then from here because of this 1259 02:10:05,430 --> 02:10:11,330 action the price actually starts going up in a different way but this volume 1260 02:10:11,330 --> 02:10:17,090 spike suggests emergence of the supply so what do we do here well we have to 1261 02:10:17,090 --> 02:10:20,410 have some kind of test and the test initial test 1262 02:10:21,420 --> 02:10:28,320 is not that great only a high low and then the 1263 02:10:28,320 --> 02:10:35,040 emergence of the demand here would be suggestive that the bias is still up 1264 02:10:35,040 --> 02:10:41,900 but because of how deeply we ran down that's just the trading range and what i 1265 02:10:41,900 --> 02:10:47,680 like about this picture is it shows us how absorption at the high level happens 1266 02:10:48,430 --> 02:10:51,830 absorption at the resistance level so resistance level is defined by the 1267 02:10:51,830 --> 02:10:58,190 climactic action some supply is coming in on this bar and we need to overcome 1268 02:10:58,190 --> 02:11:05,090 this level right here by attacking this level multiple times 1269 02:11:05,090 --> 02:11:11,250 and trying to see whether if the demand is going to increase sufficiently to 1270 02:11:11,250 --> 02:11:17,220 push the price higher or supply is going to deteriorate at this level So we're 1271 02:11:17,220 --> 02:11:21,880 seeing that on this bar right here, still some emergence of the supply that 1272 02:11:21,880 --> 02:11:22,659 we're seeing. 1273 02:11:22,660 --> 02:11:25,200 And then that takes the price down. 1274 02:11:25,540 --> 02:11:31,180 And then on the next attempt, what we're seeing, again, supply is coming in. And 1275 02:11:31,180 --> 02:11:37,280 now supply is, you know, quite aggressive here. And hopefully I'm 1276 02:11:37,280 --> 02:11:38,800 this correctly. 1277 02:11:39,020 --> 02:11:44,520 Okay. So here is, I think this is the bar, okay, that is overcoming. 1278 02:11:46,480 --> 02:11:47,480 committing to the upside. 1279 02:11:47,560 --> 02:11:49,120 Look how supply is increasing. 1280 02:11:49,640 --> 02:11:54,980 And then on the next bar, we're seeing some demand coming in. 1281 02:11:55,180 --> 02:12:00,780 So as demand comes in and the result is more negligible, negligent, 1282 02:12:00,780 --> 02:12:07,740 we are, and the close 1283 02:12:07,740 --> 02:12:14,540 is at the level of the resistance, we are thinking that it's different than 1284 02:12:14,540 --> 02:12:15,540 picture. 1285 02:12:16,240 --> 02:12:22,860 we didn't have as much demand on that uh follow -through bar and that suggested 1286 02:12:22,860 --> 02:12:28,920 to be it is not only present but what is it doing it's absorbing the supply and 1287 02:12:28,920 --> 02:12:35,680 then the next bar does not have a big volume signature and obviously we're 1288 02:12:35,680 --> 02:12:40,860 the close here of the session and that suggests that same power such as you 1289 02:12:40,860 --> 02:12:47,200 a continuation to the upside so we want to see that supply emerges and then 1290 02:12:47,200 --> 02:12:53,980 through the absorption supply is kind of going to go down and it could take 1291 02:12:53,980 --> 02:12:58,560 several spots for the supply to be observed and therefore you're going to 1292 02:12:58,560 --> 02:12:59,560 those probes 1293 02:13:31,720 --> 02:13:36,060 let's say capitulating into this bar and then capitulating it into this bar 1294 02:13:36,060 --> 02:13:42,240 these are the levels that would be of utmost importance to us we're coming to 1295 02:13:42,240 --> 02:13:47,740 this level failing we're coming as an upthrust failing again this produces a 1296 02:13:47,740 --> 02:13:53,380 small spring and then what do we do into these two bars we can't rally and then 1297 02:13:53,380 --> 02:13:58,420 this failure should negate all of the suggestions about the upward bias 1298 02:14:05,619 --> 02:14:12,240 the important bars like the breakdown bars and it could look like a spring at 1299 02:14:12,240 --> 02:14:17,720 that time it could look like the demand is coming in and it does but the key is 1300 02:14:17,720 --> 02:14:24,720 what is the result so the result is an attempt to 1301 02:14:24,720 --> 02:14:31,500 go up and failure within the structure of this bar right here to the downside 1302 02:14:33,680 --> 02:14:39,460 no follow through to the upside all 1303 02:14:39,460 --> 02:14:45,660 right so you guys could go through this yourself okay 1304 02:14:45,660 --> 02:14:51,860 this one is from mcball and let's go to this chart right away so this is the 1305 02:14:51,860 --> 02:14:58,500 chart there was a question about this this is the pnf chart that 1306 02:14:58,500 --> 02:15:01,580 shows cumulative swings up and down 1307 02:15:02,380 --> 02:15:09,100 As you know, PNF allows us to see a much clearer 1308 02:15:09,100 --> 02:15:15,500 picture where a lot of the price action is being condensed into one column 1309 02:15:15,500 --> 02:15:20,620 of X's or O's. In this case, we have numbers. 1310 02:15:21,460 --> 02:15:27,760 And what do those numbers mean? This is just a representation of the volume 1311 02:15:27,760 --> 02:15:28,760 signature. 1312 02:15:32,080 --> 02:15:38,880 This is exactly how Wyckoff himself was looking at the charts. So 1313 02:15:38,880 --> 02:15:45,540 he was trying to figure out the relationship 1314 02:15:45,540 --> 02:15:47,240 between effort and the result. 1315 02:15:47,460 --> 02:15:50,880 So let's just follow the downtrend right here. 1316 02:15:51,360 --> 02:15:52,800 What do we see? 1317 02:15:54,120 --> 02:15:57,240 We're seeing that selling kind of deteriorates. 1318 02:16:07,310 --> 02:16:11,510 shows somewhat of the climactic action. We don't see that before, right? So 2, 1319 02:16:11,650 --> 02:16:15,190 6, 1, 6, 12. 1320 02:16:15,570 --> 02:16:17,050 That was kind of like a big one. 1321 02:16:17,530 --> 02:16:20,970 But this shows some kind of climactic run capitulation. 1322 02:16:21,630 --> 02:16:27,190 Then on the next move down, we're seeing how there is some kind of 1323 02:16:27,190 --> 02:16:28,190 deterioration. 1324 02:16:41,709 --> 02:16:47,910 reversal a change of behavior as the reaction and as we go through the test 1325 02:16:47,910 --> 02:16:54,570 here is the big number but yet we're creating a high low so that's effort 1326 02:16:54,570 --> 02:17:00,790 result where effort increases and yet we cannot push the price down the price 1327 02:17:00,790 --> 02:17:07,490 does not follow to the downside other attempt to go down 1328 02:17:07,490 --> 02:17:08,490 somewhat 1329 02:17:12,139 --> 02:17:18,680 signature here with 17 and that produces the next rally 1330 02:17:18,680 --> 02:17:25,340 so we are changing behavior here and we're seeing that from 1331 02:17:25,340 --> 02:17:31,540 emergence of the volume signature and specifically demand that pushes the 1332 02:17:31,540 --> 02:17:36,920 higher and that is confirming you know deterioration of the selling and 1333 02:17:36,920 --> 02:17:37,920 suggesting the rally 1334 02:17:46,280 --> 02:17:52,780 hold as the higher low and then another local breakout the volume signature is 1335 02:17:52,780 --> 02:17:58,540 not that high but that is suggested that the selling was exhausted as well and 1336 02:17:58,540 --> 02:18:05,420 that the price could move up easily on the ease of movement again 1337 02:18:05,420 --> 02:18:11,959 those big numbers are important they're just showing capacity of the price 1338 02:18:11,959 --> 02:18:13,340 to move up 1339 02:18:15,719 --> 02:18:22,360 of the demand demand present this one as well 16 and look at this whole rally up 1340 02:18:22,360 --> 02:18:29,139 um and even though 10 seems to be like a big number there's 12 as well 1341 02:18:29,139 --> 02:18:36,059 so we're seeing a lot of volume increase on the way up a lot of 1342 02:18:36,059 --> 02:18:41,740 demand and again price is going up with the higher highs higher lows type of 1343 02:18:41,740 --> 02:18:42,740 structure 1344 02:18:43,690 --> 02:18:49,350 At the bottom of the reaction here, 10, effort is increasing to push the price 1345 02:18:49,350 --> 02:18:54,950 down, but yet the downward result is diminishing. 1346 02:18:55,230 --> 02:18:58,030 Bullish or bearish? Definitely bullish. 1347 02:19:00,370 --> 02:19:06,830 As we continue on up, we probably would not see anything 1348 02:19:06,830 --> 02:19:09,830 as a danger until maybe this. 1349 02:19:12,910 --> 02:19:18,389 to go up and look at the quality of the demand that deteriorates suggesting the 1350 02:19:18,389 --> 02:19:25,309 reaction. Reaction happens, it's one of the biggest 1351 02:19:25,309 --> 02:19:32,110 reactions to the downside, but yet we come to a very logical place 1352 02:19:32,110 --> 02:19:38,889 where we stopped before, where the price had support before, and 1353 02:19:38,889 --> 02:19:41,250 still within the context of the uptrend. 1354 02:19:41,709 --> 02:19:45,889 We're thinking that this is a potential reaccumulation. Would we have a 1355 02:19:45,889 --> 02:19:46,950 confirmation of that? 1356 02:19:47,430 --> 02:19:51,710 Okay, well, since there are lows here, the price goes up. 1357 02:20:12,120 --> 02:20:17,920 because to him that was probably the the 1358 02:20:17,920 --> 02:20:24,240 basics for his work that he has done with the cumulative wave 1359 02:20:24,240 --> 02:20:31,020 and with the rancor charts um and we actually uh kind of 1360 02:20:31,020 --> 02:20:35,900 uh you know were experimenting a little bit with rancor charts um i'll probably 1361 02:20:35,900 --> 02:20:38,200 will start showing this later on in 2021 1362 02:20:50,890 --> 02:20:57,810 unusual and you could capture the volume signature and 1363 02:20:57,810 --> 02:21:04,750 you could capture also the duration of the rank or bar and that could tell you 1364 02:21:04,750 --> 02:21:11,570 how much time was spent at the specific price level and what was the 1365 02:21:11,570 --> 02:21:15,210 effort at that place so we'll talk about this you know 1366 02:21:21,840 --> 02:21:23,400 of David's work in this chart. 1367 02:21:24,040 --> 02:21:30,040 And he was holding several charts like this, original charts by Wyckoff. 1368 02:21:30,840 --> 02:21:37,700 So to me, this is a very important chart, not just in terms of how David 1369 02:21:37,700 --> 02:21:44,140 evolved with his studies, but also just in general, just to kind of think how 1370 02:21:44,140 --> 02:21:45,740 you would go through this chart. 1371 02:21:45,980 --> 02:21:49,740 I want you to maybe make it as an exercise. 1372 02:21:50,280 --> 02:21:51,400 Print it out. 1373 02:21:51,790 --> 02:21:58,610 then go through this chart column by column and try to think about what is 1374 02:21:58,610 --> 02:22:05,550 on what is happening for each of the unique of the box in each of the columns 1375 02:22:05,550 --> 02:22:11,990 and I think it will make a lot of sense to you as to how David was approaching 1376 02:22:11,990 --> 02:22:15,650 his work okay so I'm gonna go away from this but before 1377 02:22:25,320 --> 02:22:31,560 and this is within the context of the overbought condition after the climactic 1378 02:22:31,560 --> 02:22:38,380 surge these are the places where an overthrow would indicate probably 1379 02:22:38,380 --> 02:22:43,660 a potential stop in action as supply stops to come in a perfect 1380 02:23:30,120 --> 02:23:34,840 force in the uptrend, it's always going to be there because somebody is going to 1381 02:23:34,840 --> 02:23:40,060 be taking profit, somebody is going to be shorting the market in anticipation 1382 02:23:40,060 --> 02:23:41,080 a larger reaction. 1383 02:23:41,720 --> 02:23:48,360 So your job as a tape reader is to see the emergence of the supply and see what 1384 02:23:48,360 --> 02:23:49,360 happens next. 1385 02:23:50,280 --> 02:23:54,160 There might be a continuation to that. There might be a change of behavior 1386 02:23:54,160 --> 02:23:56,680 that's going to come, a more meaningful change of behavior. 1387 02:23:57,000 --> 02:23:58,620 You need to assess that. 1388 02:24:01,230 --> 02:24:07,690 in decisions but if you don't see that follow -through of the initial supply 1389 02:24:07,690 --> 02:24:13,490 then you have to continue with your uptrend and 1390 02:24:13,490 --> 02:24:20,090 this is definitely a skill that you have to develop but also you have to develop 1391 02:24:20,090 --> 02:24:26,670 this as a belief because a lot of beginners do not understand this they 1392 02:24:26,670 --> 02:24:30,130 emergence of the supply they see how the volume increases 1393 02:24:35,440 --> 02:24:36,880 This is the beginning of the end. 1394 02:24:37,680 --> 02:24:44,320 In our minds, in the Wyckoffian minds, this is just a potential beginning of an 1395 02:24:44,320 --> 02:24:48,060 end or a potential continuation of what is unfolding. 1396 02:24:48,500 --> 02:24:53,400 So I want to, you know, accentuate this to you a little bit more. 1397 02:24:53,860 --> 02:24:55,200 Think about this. 1398 02:24:55,480 --> 02:24:57,100 It's an extremely important... 1399 02:25:17,200 --> 02:25:21,740 So this was one of the questions, you know, talk about the cumulative weight. 1400 02:25:21,740 --> 02:25:27,860 here is the volume, regular volume signature, right? So 1401 02:25:27,860 --> 02:25:34,720 it's kind of visibly for the untrained eye, hard to 1402 02:25:34,720 --> 02:25:40,700 recognize how much volume is on each of the swings, right? So here are the 1403 02:25:40,700 --> 02:25:41,980 swings up and down. 1404 02:25:48,110 --> 02:25:54,330 looking at the pnf how the pnf combines the volume from multiple vertical bars 1405 02:25:54,330 --> 02:26:01,230 the next logical step was to think about the volume for that column 1406 02:26:01,230 --> 02:26:08,130 and that's why both david and i you know love uh pnf charts 1407 02:26:08,130 --> 02:26:14,150 because it's a cumulative representation of effort and the result at the same 1408 02:26:14,150 --> 02:26:15,150 time 1409 02:26:15,560 --> 02:26:21,960 and the idea behind the cumulative wave volume has been taken from the pnf and 1410 02:26:21,960 --> 02:26:28,540 the pnf and volume so here we're seeing how david is combining all of the 1411 02:26:28,540 --> 02:26:35,420 volume and in from one swing into a rising 1412 02:26:35,420 --> 02:26:42,420 volume bars and you could judge the 1413 02:26:42,420 --> 02:26:43,420 effort 1414 02:26:58,380 --> 02:27:04,280 observe the result for instance we could say that the moves to the upside let's 1415 02:27:04,280 --> 02:27:10,360 say one two three four the moves to the upside you know were 1416 02:27:10,360 --> 02:27:17,100 somewhat good until wave number four we've seen how 1417 02:27:17,100 --> 02:27:24,020 demand is in control of the move the second wave is 1418 02:27:24,020 --> 02:27:27,640 not producing the biggest result but it doesn't produce the big reaction 1419 02:27:28,810 --> 02:27:34,290 and supply here is very low on the reaction and then we have a climactic 1420 02:27:34,290 --> 02:27:37,810 you could use this as a climactic surge 1421 02:27:58,250 --> 02:28:05,090 was able to come in and pick up all of the you know 1422 02:28:05,090 --> 02:28:09,810 demand that we had into the climactic action right here and we've seen how 1423 02:28:09,810 --> 02:28:15,810 supply has emerged on the way down and that's the whole premise of this 1424 02:28:15,810 --> 02:28:20,710 twin analysis I think I'm gonna introduce 1425 02:28:31,920 --> 02:28:37,960 some of the swing analysis that he's doing using the David cumulative weight 1426 02:28:37,960 --> 02:28:43,540 into the curriculum so we'll definitely do this in the future and I think it 1427 02:28:43,540 --> 02:28:50,480 will help us to remember David that way you know a 1428 02:28:50,480 --> 02:28:54,180 lot of things that I was telling him that we were doing in classrooms he was 1429 02:28:54,180 --> 02:28:59,800 just so excited and he was very curious because I come from academia 1430 02:29:04,780 --> 02:29:11,740 material um so he always was fascinated and inquisitive about 1431 02:29:11,740 --> 02:29:18,440 that and it's just unfortunate that we can't do this together 1432 02:29:18,440 --> 02:29:25,320 now but you know this could be our way of remembering him all right 1433 02:29:25,320 --> 02:29:29,440 and obviously i would suggest for you guys just to pick up the book to go 1434 02:29:29,440 --> 02:29:33,100 through those chapters where the cumulative wave volume is being 1435 02:29:34,120 --> 02:29:40,300 One of the other things that David introduced is the numbering of that 1436 02:29:40,300 --> 02:29:42,120 cumulative volume on the twins. 1437 02:29:42,420 --> 02:29:44,140 So you kind of could see these numbers. 1438 02:29:45,020 --> 02:29:49,680 And it's a really easy concept. 1439 02:29:50,520 --> 02:29:55,820 You could think about those numbers as the numbers for the effort. 1440 02:29:56,080 --> 02:30:02,040 So what do we see? We want to see the effort to increase in the direction of 1441 02:30:02,040 --> 02:30:03,040 trend. 1442 02:30:03,600 --> 02:30:09,340 whenever the effort decreases or the result decreases we expect some kind of 1443 02:30:09,340 --> 02:30:14,720 potential reversal so let's just go through the numbers here expansion well 1444 02:30:14,720 --> 02:30:20,600 don't have the previous numbers but still 32 even over the last downward 1445 02:30:20,600 --> 02:30:27,380 25 looks bullish we've seen this in the visual here and then look at how supply 1446 02:30:27,380 --> 02:30:28,380 is starting to diminish 1447 02:30:39,200 --> 02:30:45,620 500 to the downside the next wave down we are at 600 the next wave down we are 1448 02:30:45,620 --> 02:30:51,820 at 700 so a slight increase but not a big increase and then we are at 4100 1449 02:30:51,820 --> 02:30:58,240 so we're seeing the progression of the supply increase from 1450 02:30:58,240 --> 02:31:04,680 one down move to another down move and at the same time we're seeing how uh 1451 02:31:04,680 --> 02:31:07,560 let's say from 54 to 11 1452 02:31:08,680 --> 02:31:15,000 is starting to decrease and we want to find that spot where the change of 1453 02:31:15,000 --> 02:31:20,680 behavior happens so here's that change of behavior demand deteriorate supply 1454 02:31:20,680 --> 02:31:27,120 emerges what could we expect a download and that that you know 1455 02:31:27,120 --> 02:31:33,840 um that that's all about you know like in a very simplistic 1456 02:31:33,840 --> 02:31:35,240 terms that's all about 1457 02:31:38,480 --> 02:31:45,320 of thinking about the cumulative way of how he was thinking about when he was 1458 02:31:45,320 --> 02:31:51,540 constructing it it's that effort versus result a 1459 02:31:51,540 --> 02:31:57,680 deeper look into the supply and demand relative to the swing structure and just 1460 02:31:57,680 --> 02:31:59,480 deterioration of one over another 1461 02:32:13,580 --> 02:32:18,360 numbers such as you know this is a cumulative number of this weight right 1462 02:32:18,360 --> 02:32:25,120 so it's just being cumulatively 1463 02:32:25,120 --> 02:32:30,520 put together and that is the number usually in the thousands just depending 1464 02:32:30,520 --> 02:32:36,400 the instrument if this is future this one thing if this is 1465 02:32:36,400 --> 02:32:41,140 so this is euro 250 tick bar chart 1466 02:32:47,360 --> 02:32:51,760 number okay what else you 1467 02:32:51,760 --> 02:32:59,220 okay 1468 02:32:59,220 --> 02:33:05,780 so I think that these are the basics here 1469 02:33:05,780 --> 02:33:12,620 on the wave counts and cumulative volume counts and how to visualize 1470 02:33:12,620 --> 02:33:19,520 that how to work with that i would highly recommend um uh reading 1471 02:33:19,520 --> 02:33:24,740 david's book i think that probably that would be the best source there or 1472 02:33:24,740 --> 02:33:29,880 finding some of his presentations earlier presentations uh where he talks 1473 02:33:29,880 --> 02:33:36,360 uh his wave um actually best of wake up that is free on our youtube channel like 1474 02:33:36,360 --> 02:33:43,240 of uh trading method uh i think his presentation contains 1475 02:33:43,240 --> 02:33:48,070 that or maybe at the previous test or like i'll have to look 1476 02:33:48,070 --> 02:33:54,090 okay um same wave structure here 1477 02:33:54,090 --> 02:34:01,050 uh and same numbers so uh the only difference here 1478 02:34:01,050 --> 02:34:08,010 is that now we are adding the length of the wave in the number of minutes and 1479 02:34:08,010 --> 02:34:10,950 again this is just a little bit 1480 02:34:12,870 --> 02:34:19,430 concept so i'm gonna go through this really quickly you want to see 1481 02:34:19,430 --> 02:34:26,290 you want to see how much 1482 02:34:26,290 --> 02:34:32,330 time it takes for the effort to overcome a specific distance that the swing 1483 02:34:32,330 --> 02:34:33,850 travels so how about that 1484 02:34:45,290 --> 02:34:50,410 say overcome a specific area uh it would tell you that there is more presence 1485 02:34:50,410 --> 02:34:57,010 let's say of supply or the uh or the demand and it needs to be observed so 1486 02:34:57,010 --> 02:35:02,230 resolution of that extension of the duration usually is much more profound 1487 02:35:02,230 --> 02:35:09,150 and then a shorter duration so for instance like 1488 02:35:09,150 --> 02:35:16,110 right here we have three minutes seven minutes i'm sorry the 1489 02:35:16,110 --> 02:35:21,930 first number i think yeah the first number is the uh it's the number of 1490 02:35:21,930 --> 02:35:28,930 right okay so 10 10 5 10 and then look at this 1491 02:35:28,930 --> 02:35:35,490 55 minutes right so it took uh quite some time but look at the result 1492 02:35:35,490 --> 02:35:41,030 uh for this type of numbers uh you know in terms of how much time it took it 1493 02:35:41,030 --> 02:35:43,730 definitely uh logical to have 1494 02:35:45,000 --> 02:35:50,700 lot of progression in the uptrend how 1495 02:35:50,700 --> 02:35:57,480 do we determine the end of the start of the swing so David was 1496 02:35:57,480 --> 02:36:03,440 taking the closes first of all so you kind of see that the all the swings they 1497 02:36:03,440 --> 02:36:09,520 they end at the closes they do not he didn't look at the tails 1498 02:36:09,520 --> 02:36:14,870 you could have so many ways of how you define the swing you could 1499 02:36:14,870 --> 02:36:21,710 take the definition of the zigzag function and just go from 1500 02:36:21,710 --> 02:36:25,790 there that zigzag function could be based on the percentage could be based 1501 02:36:25,790 --> 02:36:32,150 number of points and it basically is going to define where 1502 02:36:32,150 --> 02:36:38,390 exactly there is a reversal so let's say if i say x percent or 1503 02:36:38,390 --> 02:36:40,610 a specific number of points 1504 02:36:41,390 --> 02:36:47,150 it's going to find that spot where that percent is being violated or the number 1505 02:36:47,150 --> 02:36:52,030 of points happening this is the potential reversal in wtp we're 1506 02:36:52,030 --> 02:36:57,150 significant bars reversal so this is similar concept but without any 1507 02:36:57,150 --> 02:37:04,150 quantification more of the visual okay yeah 1508 02:37:04,150 --> 02:37:08,950 so let's let's probably go from there here yeah so quite a lot 1509 02:37:12,840 --> 02:37:19,320 This was really cool. Rob reached out to David and Rob, I'm so grateful that you 1510 02:37:19,320 --> 02:37:22,540 did because you connected to him this way. 1511 02:37:23,480 --> 02:37:27,720 So I'm really happy that you had that opportunity. 1512 02:37:28,400 --> 02:37:34,280 So this was the current example of the SMP and how we were going through the 1513 02:37:34,280 --> 02:37:39,360 COVID reaction and then the subsequent move up. 1514 02:37:40,420 --> 02:37:46,890 So what do we... on the way down here uh 64 24 so we've seen 1515 02:37:46,890 --> 02:37:51,910 on the intraday basis the deterioration of the supply in this trading range even 1516 02:37:51,910 --> 02:37:58,150 though it still was volatile 103 uh commitment to the downside but not a big 1517 02:37:58,150 --> 02:38:04,850 commitment yet effort is so big so that suggests presence of the demand 1518 02:38:04,850 --> 02:38:11,830 and then obviously we are on you know traveling up 81 was the best rally that 1519 02:38:11,830 --> 02:38:18,330 we had, right? So 37, 26, 34, 34, 17, 1520 02:38:18,470 --> 02:38:19,750 and then 81. 1521 02:38:20,350 --> 02:38:26,570 So that was a very big momentum move that suggested that we are done with the 1522 02:38:26,570 --> 02:38:28,170 down move, we are in a different environment. 1523 02:38:28,590 --> 02:38:35,570 And then look at the numbers at the bottom, 23, 43, 18, relative to 103, or 1524 02:38:35,570 --> 02:38:37,970 64, or 19. 1525 02:38:38,920 --> 02:38:45,620 277 so definitely shows ability for the price to hold on to the gains and just 1526 02:38:45,620 --> 02:38:52,320 retrace maybe 50 percent so this was right here uh the last confirmation for 1527 02:38:52,320 --> 02:38:57,120 buy is up and obviously you know in the classroom we've picked it up actually 1528 02:38:57,120 --> 02:39:04,020 almost to the last intraday bar then as the price goes up two or three quite 1529 02:39:04,020 --> 02:39:05,700 a big number right there 1530 02:39:07,630 --> 02:39:12,450 suggestive of the climactic action and the imminent reaction 1531 02:39:12,450 --> 02:39:18,990 72 was the highest number since 103 so 1532 02:39:18,990 --> 02:39:23,630 you have to think here exactly what i've been telling you this whole session 1533 02:39:23,630 --> 02:39:29,090 supply emerges what kind of result does it produce yes it could have a reaction 1534 02:39:37,840 --> 02:39:43,840 which was you know quite a pickup look at the 62 here off the low 1535 02:39:43,840 --> 02:39:50,500 uh look at 88 and 81 here so we're still traveling up 1536 02:39:50,500 --> 02:39:57,400 uh where demand is showing up and then supply is showing a successful test so 1537 02:39:57,400 --> 02:40:01,160 that's a just a continuation that's how you would be interpreting those 1538 02:40:12,680 --> 02:40:19,260 this a lot in the first series i i have shown you how you could use pnf um it's 1539 02:40:19,260 --> 02:40:24,740 a cumulative effort and cumulative result so here is a cumulative result to 1540 02:40:24,740 --> 02:40:31,660 upside which exceeded all of the attempts to go up on the previous 1541 02:40:31,660 --> 02:40:37,680 so that was a change of behavior on the way out and then the subsequent reaction 1542 02:40:37,680 --> 02:40:40,980 did not have supply signature so you could visualize 1543 02:40:42,040 --> 02:40:47,100 this picture like this so you don't necessarily have to have all of those 1544 02:40:47,100 --> 02:40:53,980 numbers okay all right okay how 1545 02:40:53,980 --> 02:41:00,340 much time do we have excellent we have about 20 minutes or so all right guys 1546 02:41:00,340 --> 02:41:03,420 let's do some exercises so this is going to be the 1547 02:41:26,000 --> 02:41:30,460 This is the technology that we've been developing in the practicum class with 1548 02:41:30,460 --> 02:41:31,460 our advanced students. 1549 02:41:31,780 --> 02:41:36,040 I want you to think about this in a specific way. 1550 02:42:07,150 --> 02:42:11,270 for the solution where they shouldn't be one. 1551 02:42:13,930 --> 02:42:14,530 So 1552 02:42:14,530 --> 02:42:22,750 the 1553 02:42:22,750 --> 02:42:24,250 screen should be on now. 1554 02:42:27,210 --> 02:42:33,030 I want you to go through the bias game in a slightly different way. For those 1555 02:42:33,030 --> 02:42:35,650 you who have not attended the practical 1556 02:42:37,740 --> 02:42:44,600 to give you a quick algorithm as to how to think about charts when you are 1557 02:42:44,600 --> 02:42:49,240 looking at the consolidations and you're trying to define the bias i want you 1558 02:42:49,240 --> 02:42:56,180 first to think about the environment and kind of divide the 1559 02:42:56,180 --> 02:43:01,700 chart into different sections right so where do you see an uptrend where do you 1560 02:43:01,700 --> 02:43:05,720 see a consolidation within the consolidation what kind of swings do you 1561 02:43:05,720 --> 02:43:11,520 second thing I want you to start thinking about swing analysis, so swing 1562 02:43:11,520 --> 02:43:18,420 swing, and to think about the swings as what's the intention behind 1563 02:43:18,420 --> 02:43:22,940 that swing, what has been accomplished by that swing, and what kind of effort 1564 02:43:22,940 --> 02:43:23,940 behind that swing. 1565 02:43:44,040 --> 02:43:48,860 two types of thinking about the bars significant bars 1566 02:43:48,860 --> 02:43:55,700 and more importantly what is the result 1567 02:44:13,160 --> 02:44:18,660 which is the latest price action so what do you see there because the latest 1568 02:44:18,660 --> 02:44:25,340 price action is going to define the next move so therefore within the 1569 02:44:25,340 --> 02:44:31,560 structure of the whole thing then it's important so then only then you start 1570 02:44:31,560 --> 02:44:36,640 thinking about what is the bias of the game and then after that then you label 1571 02:44:36,640 --> 02:44:37,640 the whole thing 1572 02:44:43,790 --> 02:44:50,290 in itself I don't want you even to to think 1573 02:44:50,290 --> 02:44:56,630 about the labeling at all so we're just gonna just check out this 1574 02:44:56,630 --> 02:45:01,950 they're the same haven't we seen this chart in the previous one session 1575 02:45:01,950 --> 02:45:08,930 yeah so I thought that I deleted it okay well David if you 1576 02:45:08,930 --> 02:45:10,210 have in it what the bus 1577 02:45:21,130 --> 02:45:22,130 David, 1578 02:45:22,330 --> 02:45:23,330 what is the bias here? 1579 02:46:08,490 --> 02:46:14,210 accumulation bullish distribution uptrend distribution uptrend okay okay 1580 02:46:14,210 --> 02:46:19,990 one because we actually did this yeah so this was a distribution so what was the 1581 02:46:19,990 --> 02:46:26,370 key here let me kind of quickly go through this with you so uptrend 1582 02:46:26,370 --> 02:46:32,250 then a consolidation within the consolidation what are the most 1583 02:46:32,250 --> 02:46:37,910 elements of that what is the most important bar on this chart by the way 1584 02:46:48,780 --> 02:46:53,480 This is the bar right here. This bar defines the selling zone. 1585 02:46:53,860 --> 02:46:58,520 And look at how Uptra comes beautifully at this place. 1586 02:46:59,220 --> 02:47:04,060 And what is happening with all of the attempts to go up? 1587 02:47:04,940 --> 02:47:06,120 They all fail. 1588 02:47:06,360 --> 02:47:08,500 They cannot overcome this bar. 1589 02:47:09,300 --> 02:47:14,640 And that bar has had some selling. And that selling produced that change of 1590 02:47:14,640 --> 02:47:15,640 behavior. 1591 02:47:16,240 --> 02:47:20,960 negated almost all of the games of the last climactic run so right here we're 1592 02:47:20,960 --> 02:47:26,040 thinking because of that negation because of that increase of the supply 1593 02:47:26,040 --> 02:47:32,120 the bias is there to be confirmed or to fail and then first attempt 1594 02:47:32,120 --> 02:47:39,120 failure supply comes in again second attempt failure but you know more of the 1595 02:47:39,120 --> 02:47:43,560 bullish character and then on this particular bar this is the second most 1596 02:47:46,600 --> 02:47:51,260 supply comes in again and off the supply comes in we have a very rapid decline 1597 02:49:34,630 --> 02:49:38,030 important swing on this chart 1598 02:49:38,030 --> 02:49:47,150 what 1599 02:49:47,150 --> 02:49:53,030 is the most important swing on this chart i 1600 02:49:53,030 --> 02:49:57,970 would say this 1601 02:49:57,970 --> 02:50:04,760 right volatility increases supply in and that comes 1602 02:50:04,760 --> 02:50:11,520 after what after we have some supply here then that supply has been 1603 02:50:11,520 --> 02:50:17,440 observed throughout the time throughout the consolidation then we have a sign of 1604 02:50:17,440 --> 02:50:18,440 strength 1605 02:50:33,520 --> 02:50:37,140 this question all of you what is the result of that action 1606 02:50:37,140 --> 02:50:45,460 to 1607 02:50:45,460 --> 02:50:50,660 understand the result of the action you need to understand what was the intent 1608 02:50:50,660 --> 02:50:57,640 of that action right so we intended intended to overcome the support level 1609 02:50:57,640 --> 02:50:58,900 did we do so 1610 02:51:08,710 --> 02:51:13,230 chandra is saying temporarily we committed yeah and then we recovered 1611 02:51:13,230 --> 02:51:17,350 quickly on the next bar and then we tested it and then we continued to the 1612 02:51:17,350 --> 02:51:24,030 upside so it's almost like a spring type of action that is a spring 1613 02:51:24,030 --> 02:51:30,270 of sorts where we recover so there is so much effort to the downside 1614 02:51:37,930 --> 02:51:38,909 Bullish or bearish? 1615 02:51:38,910 --> 02:51:42,110 Definitely bullish. Do we have a confirmation of the bullish behavior 1616 02:51:42,110 --> 02:51:43,110 afterwards? 1617 02:51:43,570 --> 02:51:44,570 Yes, we do. 1618 02:51:44,930 --> 02:51:48,790 Supply is coming in even more, and yet we are creating a higher low. 1619 02:51:49,570 --> 02:51:55,970 We are capable of not only just coming to the resistance, but actually going 1620 02:51:55,970 --> 02:51:57,050 even above it. 1621 02:51:57,590 --> 02:52:02,870 And then the next move down does not have the same supply signature as 1622 02:52:03,070 --> 02:52:05,890 and it comes into the higher low as well. 1623 02:52:06,640 --> 02:52:11,780 there is only probably two or three big bars to the downside 1624 02:52:11,780 --> 02:52:18,740 that's it alex is asking how do you see the week up move after the 1625 02:52:18,740 --> 02:52:23,980 sprint actually if you would be thinking you know what kind of move do we have 1626 02:52:23,980 --> 02:52:24,980 like for instance here 1627 02:52:36,270 --> 02:52:38,750 Obviously, this is kind of like a stable move up. 1628 02:52:39,010 --> 02:52:43,690 This has this bar right here that has a lot of demand and supply at the same 1629 02:52:43,690 --> 02:52:46,270 time. But this one is also very dynamic. 1630 02:52:47,770 --> 02:52:50,390 Look at these bars off the bottom. 1631 02:52:52,170 --> 02:52:59,150 They are all bars that are somewhat larger in the spread. This 1632 02:52:59,150 --> 02:53:03,750 is a much larger average spread to the upside than we have here. 1633 02:53:04,400 --> 02:53:10,640 so we can't say that this is a weak rally by any means alex so it has 1634 02:53:10,640 --> 02:53:15,420 some aggressiveness and capacity actually even to probe higher prices 1635 02:53:15,420 --> 02:53:22,200 so this was also a little bit market related you know we've talked 1636 02:53:22,200 --> 02:53:29,040 about the source of funding this was that 2011 august crash that 1637 02:53:29,040 --> 02:53:30,720 also had a very quick 1638 02:53:46,760 --> 02:53:47,900 let's go to the next one 1639 02:54:15,950 --> 02:54:16,950 Answers are coming in. 1640 02:54:45,840 --> 02:54:46,940 We're 50 -50 here. 1641 02:54:47,740 --> 02:54:50,380 So let's just go through some of the questions. 1642 02:54:52,140 --> 02:54:58,660 We're seeing an uptrend, and then we're seeing a change of behavior right here. 1643 02:54:59,360 --> 02:55:05,280 So let's go through this area just to define exactly where the selling has 1644 02:55:05,280 --> 02:55:09,740 happened. I would say that selling has happened on this bar, this bar. 1645 02:55:23,440 --> 02:55:29,240 So we're basically just saying that this is the zone right here that we need to 1646 02:55:29,240 --> 02:55:30,240 overcome. 1647 02:55:30,680 --> 02:55:35,780 So a flashcard idea, did we do that? 1648 02:55:36,600 --> 02:55:42,460 And a flashcard idea is just, you know, again, something that we've developed in 1649 02:55:42,460 --> 02:55:43,460 the practical. 1650 02:55:43,480 --> 02:55:49,680 It's one thought that could bring you instantly to the solution of the bias. 1651 02:55:53,360 --> 02:56:00,200 those rallies fail to overcome the sell zone and the answer to that is 1652 02:56:00,200 --> 02:56:07,020 yes all of the attempts to push the price higher are failing 1653 02:56:07,020 --> 02:56:13,760 and one of the significant bars on this chart 1654 02:56:13,760 --> 02:56:20,620 is this one this is the most aggressive attempt by the bulls to produce 1655 02:56:20,620 --> 02:56:21,620 some kind of rally 1656 02:56:23,820 --> 02:56:30,620 some supply behind it but look at the volume signature in this 1657 02:56:30,620 --> 02:56:36,540 area right here except for this volume signature which is basically you know 1658 02:56:36,540 --> 02:56:43,400 supply we don't see anything else of significance and yet what happens 1659 02:56:43,400 --> 02:56:48,700 after this box we are testing first and it looks like yeah everything's fine 1660 02:56:48,700 --> 02:56:51,320 everything's okay but then after that we are failing 1661 02:56:53,520 --> 02:56:59,760 negating all of the gains that we have in this bar so it is important for us to 1662 02:56:59,760 --> 02:57:05,280 understand what happens on the right edge of the consolidation we don't 1663 02:57:05,280 --> 02:57:10,440 necessarily want to kind of like lose that perspective of what is the short 1664 02:57:10,440 --> 02:57:16,180 -term potential move and then when we think that you know with this negation 1665 02:57:16,180 --> 02:57:20,500 the gains on that big bar this is looking bearish if we're gonna go down 1666 02:57:33,930 --> 02:57:37,270 difficult bias games, and I wanted to pick more difficult ones. 1667 02:57:37,930 --> 02:57:42,190 So look at Twitter. 75 % were saying that this is an accumulation. 1668 02:57:45,770 --> 02:57:47,370 Okay. Yeah, that's it. 1669 02:57:48,150 --> 02:57:50,310 And we are right at 6 o 'clock. 1670 02:57:51,750 --> 02:57:57,610 Alright, guys. So quite a lot of material today, but I appreciate that, 1671 02:57:57,610 --> 02:58:02,730 know, I could be done today for the year end, for the semester end, just, you 1672 02:58:02,730 --> 02:58:03,599 know. 1673 02:58:03,600 --> 02:58:10,340 start resting again it's just so 1674 02:58:10,340 --> 02:58:17,220 unexpected and so heartbreaking that David is 1675 02:58:17,220 --> 02:58:24,000 no longer with us so hopefully going 1676 02:58:24,000 --> 02:58:30,080 through the slides by students you know on his book you know we felt his 1677 02:58:30,080 --> 02:58:31,660 presence we felt his thoughts 1678 02:58:37,320 --> 02:58:43,020 to take us some time, you know, to come to the acceptance that he's not here. 1679 02:58:44,620 --> 02:58:51,360 And we can't really let go to the source, to 1680 02:58:51,360 --> 02:58:58,240 him. So I would advise you guys to absolutely pick up his book. 1681 02:58:58,880 --> 02:59:00,200 Reread it if you read it. 1682 02:59:01,280 --> 02:59:06,560 Reread it as a study guide, as a study book where you're making notes. where 1683 02:59:06,560 --> 02:59:10,420 you're printing out the charts, and then you're going bar by bar. 1684 02:59:13,420 --> 02:59:19,340 Meanwhile, for those of you who are going to continue with us on tape 1685 02:59:19,340 --> 02:59:24,900 and chart reading, I'm looking forward to January's tape reading lab, so keep 1686 02:59:24,900 --> 02:59:29,500 that in mind, and we'll inform you as to when it's going to happen, how it's 1687 02:59:29,500 --> 02:59:31,780 going to happen, what format, and so on and so forth. 1688 02:59:35,660 --> 02:59:41,280 One of my personal goals is to go even deeper in chart reading, tape reading, 1689 02:59:41,480 --> 02:59:48,400 and I'm just kind of seeing a lot of the things that we 1690 02:59:48,400 --> 02:59:49,640 even haven't talked about. 1691 02:59:50,600 --> 02:59:55,020 But those are the things that are even nuances, they're just a little bit more 1692 02:59:55,020 --> 03:00:00,140 advanced, and obviously I wasn't expecting that the course is going to 1693 03:00:00,140 --> 03:00:01,140 like this. 1694 03:00:01,520 --> 03:00:05,140 So with that, I would like to wish everybody... 1695 03:00:05,390 --> 03:00:09,630 Happy holidays, whatever you celebrate, whether you are in the U .S. or around 1696 03:00:09,630 --> 03:00:10,630 the world. 1697 03:00:11,550 --> 03:00:17,930 You know, I'm wishing all of you guys a peace of mind in this 1698 03:00:17,930 --> 03:00:21,370 crazy world, in this crazy year. 1699 03:00:21,890 --> 03:00:27,710 I think, you know, without any exaggeration to say that, a lot of us 1700 03:00:27,710 --> 03:00:32,670 that, you know, it's good for this year to end, and hopefully the next year will 1701 03:00:32,670 --> 03:00:33,810 be much better. 1702 03:00:37,740 --> 03:00:43,320 with your family enjoy the time with your family and at the same time figure 1703 03:00:43,320 --> 03:00:49,000 how to use this vacation time you know meaning vacation time to your benefit go 1704 03:00:49,000 --> 03:00:53,760 through the charts pick up David's book you know read that you know pick up our 1705 03:00:53,760 --> 03:00:59,160 videos pick up the videos from tape reading course go through those make 1706 03:01:06,350 --> 03:01:10,870 right guys with that thank you so much and if you have any questions just email 1707 03:01:10,870 --> 03:01:16,770 like associates at gmail .com I'll be really happy to hear from thank you guys 161874

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