All language subtitles for Tape Reading - Session 4,5 - Progressing to the Next Level, with David Weis and Roman Bogomazov
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and this is session number two and
session number three official sessions
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uh for series number two of the tape
reading course that was uh that i was
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supposed to do together with david weiss
um and we are combining these two
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sessions originally we thought that you
know i'm gonna conduct monday tuesday
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class but you know it's been a long year
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just want to be done with all of the
classes i was kind of hoping to be done
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by last friday um and uh so because the
sessions david sessions are
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hour and a half that's what he requested
um you know we're just gonna kind of
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like follow with that and we're just
gonna combine uh two of our sessions two
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and three in
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session with david that's number one uh
bonus session number one
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and bonus session number two and then
you're gonna have this three hour
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class that combines session number two
and number three so you're gonna have
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five sessions uh instead of three and i
hope that this is sufficient um you know
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in light of the circumstances that we're
going through with david
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And, you know, hopefully that's going to
be enough. There is no substitute to
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David whatsoever.
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I mean, like, there is nobody in the
world that could give you the
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that he contained.
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And, I mean, like, all of the teachers,
we realize that. I mean, like, we can't
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really give you guys exactly what he was
supposed to give you.
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extremely sad, extremely heartbreaking
that David
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is not with us.
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It's kind of, I was talking to my wife,
it's kind of a little bit hard, you
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know, when you work with the person, and
I've been working with David this last
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year, this year a lot.
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same feeling or not um that's just kind
of like what i feel um because i mean
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like even uh from his hospital that he
was communicating to me and to us and
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he was saying like you know roman you
know don't worry i'm gonna get back i'm
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gonna you know we're gonna cover those
two sessions so just kind of like stick
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with me and i'm like don't even worry
you know like uh we'll launch william
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first and you come back and everybody's
like on board for January classes, and
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just unfortunate how it all happened.
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I had a chance, as I mentioned, to...
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How's the audio, by the way? I can't
hear
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you today.
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Is the audio okay?
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Yeah? Okay. I'll speak up.
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I'll speak up. Maybe it's just me.
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So, but if your audio is you're not
catching something, then definitely log
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log in back, and you'll have that.
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So as I was saying, I had a chance to
work with David a lot this year.
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My first encounter with David was
obviously through the material that he
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providing.
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of Waikos at Golden Gate University.
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I actually did not attend that
particular conference. I believe it was
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And Bruce sometimes, you know, talks
about that particular conference.
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Hank and David definitely knew each
other well.
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Hank spoke about David, and David
obviously, you know, in my conversations
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him, spoke about Hank.
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he had very fond memories of him.
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David was a very instrumental person in
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the Wyckoff method.
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If, let's say, SMI, starting with Bob
Evans after
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Richard D. Wyckoff's death, if Bob Evans
was
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kind of like this very, very structural
guy, right? So he was taking the
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concepts and he was trying to
structurize and give all of the
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spots some kind of name. So some of you
might be surprised that, you know, when
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I would say that Wyckoff actually did
not have any phase analysis.
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I mean, like, literally, it's not
Richard D. Wyckoff's...
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work. It came later on from SMI.
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Wyckoff did not have a definition of the
spring.
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He had a definition of a shakeout and a
terminal shakeout. So those type of
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things that we were grateful to Bob
Evans, you know, to put on paper, to put
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tape, echo tapes, I'm sorry, and
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So his work predominantly was on the
structure, and I think that's what we're
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grateful for, for Bob Evans.
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Whereas David, obviously, a next
generation of Wycoffians. So to me,
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Hank Pruden, Tom Williams, David Wise,
and Craig Schroeder, they are kind of
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like one generational layer of
Wycoffians who did different things.
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So David had a very unique approach.
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of the methodology.
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He approached it more from volume and
price, tape reading,
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supply and demand,
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swing analysis of the, you know, or
analysis rather of the effort versus
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in swings and in the bars.
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William said in the previous session on
Thursday, he modernized, you know, the
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tape reading approach, you know, taken
from Wyckoff methodology
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by bringing, you know, his David Wise
cumulative wave, by looking at the
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effort versus result on the swing, and
also working
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a lot with PNF and Renko.
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So, that was probably the most prolific
contribution
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by David, you know, to the methodology.
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And then, obviously, you know, his
character.
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For those of you who had the chance to
work with him privately, and David most
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of the time conducted private sessions.
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of lucky and i was just unbelievably
grateful to david that he agreed you
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to have these classes and uh we were
just very excited and um what do you
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we only have one session with him but
this is the session that you know we'll
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definitely cherish at some point you
know maybe in a year we'll put it on
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youtube channel as a free session just
you know to remember david that way
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His character was of, and this is just
coming from me, but I'm sure that
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you could relate to this, you know,
those of you who have taken even a
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session. He was very generous.
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He was very generous with his time and
he was very passionate about his work,
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about looking at the charts.
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And I started working with him in
January of 2020.
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So right before...
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of wanted to build a closer relationship
with him because obviously he he's such
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a big figure and you know I've realized
that even at the level that I am
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I still could be mentored by a great
teacher like David so I had
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throughout this year almost 30 private
sessions with him that I went through
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we did a bunch of different exercises
but
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know what it is maybe it's just kind of
like a camaraderie that we had that we
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shared we laughed a lot when we looked
at the chart and I
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mean obviously being both so curious
about what's going on in the chart it
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kind of fun it was a lot of fun to just
you
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know go through the analysis with him
where
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okay well what's the deduction out of
that you know like this seems to be of
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this character and this moves you know
like and so on so forth and one of the
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things that he was commenting and i mean
like it's kind of pretty obvious he was
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like you know uh like in the middle of
the session he was like i don't have any
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material for you anymore and i'm like
how come and he's like you're just going
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too fast um he's like your analysis is
so fast and i think maybe it's just
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a function of the classes you know that
they teach where i have to like go
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really fast right so um or just slow
down you know it just depends on the
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like wmd is always like you know like we
would go like through 30 50 charts in
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that class um but david really enjoyed
it um and so did i because in a short
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period of time that you know we had
together we were able to go through a
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material number one um and i think it's
just because
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he really didn't have to explain a lot
and we were just enjoying kind of like
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looking at the charts and kind of
analyzing and he was kind of mesmerized
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with some of the pyramid techniques that
i had and he was always like well i
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wouldn't do that but it works and it's
just amazing how you do this and so on
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forth and obviously i was trying to
figure out how he did
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And he wasn't an extremely active trader
per se, let's say the last year, but he
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was chasing this trade in court. And,
you know, he was talking about in
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and he was talking about the history.
And I mean, obviously, I'm also kind of
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like, you know, a chart history nerd. So
I was always like, OK, let's go show
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me, you know, where did you trade it?
You know, why did you why were you
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thinking this way at that time?
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and we were just talking about the
history of that corn trade and then
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it comes and he's like this is it and
what a great call what an amazing call
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like you know i i kind of experienced it
from from the master himself
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um just kind of thinking about
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how he was approaching the selection and
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he was already you know so set on the
bias and it was interesting that both of
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us were kind of confirming the same
trade because i was talking at the time
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lot about agriculture and commodities in
general so going into summer it may it
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was obvious to both of us that
agriculture in general and including
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are just going to reap through uh you
know off the lows considering you know
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intensity all of the institutions had of
the COVID low.
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So that was a great trade.
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He was also, you know, we kind of became
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a little bit personal with each other.
And I was hoping, you know, to go to
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Boston because my daughter goes to
Boston, one of the Boston universities.
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And David leaves.
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in the suburbs of Boston.
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that i'm gonna come and um you know he
was saying like yeah i'm
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gonna take it to my favorite restaurant
um and because i'm a little bit of a
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food um a foodie and uh so we were
looking towards
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that and uh obviously will never happen
um but uh you know he was giving
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himself all um As a teacher, as a
friend, as a mentor,
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I had a
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very tough time
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when Hank passed.
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And this year with David kind of got me
so close to him.
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so on so forth it's really hard
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to let him go so the best remedy that i
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found with hink because that was also
such a huge loss for me personally
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is just to remember them you know and we
should remember david we
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will david's book is
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And that book will stand, you know, it
will stand the time. Many students of
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the market will read that book.
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And I will make sure that we do here at
Wyckoff Analytics.
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You know, we've already kind of been
doing that, but we'll do that more.
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I want you to know that also...
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david's family and i only had a chance
to know his wife karen um and
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by knowing i mean like i have
corresponded with her i talked to her
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um in the last couple of months so i
know her from that but i've never met
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and he also has
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very very sweet people and it would be
tremendous if all of
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you those who had a chance to work with
David or even you didn't have a chance
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to work with David and maybe you just
read his book and it impacted you so
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deeply profoundly you know write us an
email with your memories of David and
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your work with him and I will collect
all of those emails I will put them into
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some kind of know pdf or i'll figure it
out and i'll send it to canada and the
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family i think it would be nice for them
to hear
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from his students and i'm sure they are
receiving a lot of emails but you know
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just kind of like in one um from from
another source from one source um
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so if you have a chance uh you know
definitely
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we'll get it together and we'll forward
that uh to the family all right um
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i think probably that's it
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uh i can't think of anything else right
now this is probably the first time when
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i kind of like let myself talk about him
a little
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bit more like you know in the extension
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thought that I have about him and yeah,
I'm kind of a little bit lost
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with words.
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You're such a great man.
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Okay, what are we going to do today?
Let's just kind of like concentrate.
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Okay, so today we're going to have
throughout the whole session, I'm not
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questions I think it's the one of the
most important teaching and learning
193
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that we could have question and answer
now you can do this in different ways
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specifically for this class what I'm
thinking is I
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want to have all of the questions on the
agenda and then as we go through the
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session
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then I will try to concentrate on some
of the questions that relate to that
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material. And obviously, we want to,
it's still David's session, so
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we want to go through some of the
David's material.
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00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:32,040
And therefore, we're going to talk about
his book and what our students here at
201
00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:37,780
Wyckoff Analytics did with that book,
how we
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00:19:37,780 --> 00:19:42,660
could work with that book. It's a very
important...
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00:19:43,250 --> 00:19:47,410
understanding for us how do you work
with that book you can't really just
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00:19:47,410 --> 00:19:53,530
it you have to study it so we'll talk
about that and then we just we'll do
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00:19:53,530 --> 00:19:55,470
practice exercises as always
206
00:20:30,540 --> 00:20:36,680
is for educational purposes only so stop
the recording read a disclaimer in full
207
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:40,220
so let's do those q a
208
00:20:40,220 --> 00:20:46,280
inquiries let's just go through some of
the questions
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00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:53,260
so um let's figure out
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00:20:53,260 --> 00:20:58,340
what kind of questions you guys have so
type those in i'm gonna copy paste them
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00:20:58,990 --> 00:21:03,030
kind of like as i do this i'll think
about you know what are the appropriate
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00:21:03,030 --> 00:21:09,710
know moments uh that we could go through
uh those questions and uh some of the
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00:21:09,710 --> 00:21:16,670
questions you know will definitely go
through at the end
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00:21:16,670 --> 00:21:23,650
of the session and some of them during
the session okay so here's
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00:21:23,650 --> 00:21:24,650
the first question
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00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:37,500
all about david's work david wise
indicator and how it works can you
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00:21:37,500 --> 00:21:43,660
it's volume indicator yeah we could
definitely go through this okay no
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00:21:43,660 --> 00:21:49,420
bar and think about any questions that
you have on tape reading and chart
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00:21:49,420 --> 00:21:52,800
reading by the way those are two
different things tape reading and chart
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00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:59,260
we can talk about this as well okay so
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00:21:59,260 --> 00:22:01,840
some questions are coming in that are
just
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00:22:05,049 --> 00:22:09,090
david's work so i'm gonna separate those
okay what else guys
223
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:50,300
What is that? I don't want to even make
any assumptions there
224
00:22:50,300 --> 00:22:56,960
Reservation bars from David's work
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00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:52,960
absorption we'll talk about this today
absolutely okay
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00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:58,400
volume profile um okay horizontal volume
was that the amplitude that
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00:24:27,210 --> 00:24:32,290
view various spots at the edge of the
trading range first okay so tactics
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00:24:32,290 --> 00:24:39,030
okay
229
00:24:39,030 --> 00:24:45,450
footprints show the beta versus ask
volume at price level in the
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00:24:45,450 --> 00:24:52,010
in the bars and show balance on balance
of orders oh i see okay so that
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00:24:52,010 --> 00:24:55,950
is the you know the delta volume right
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00:25:00,549 --> 00:25:07,470
Probably not going to go there because
this work is a little bit, it
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00:25:07,470 --> 00:25:09,790
requires a little bit more thought.
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00:25:13,070 --> 00:25:17,030
Ironically, I was just talking about
this with somebody this week.
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00:25:19,230 --> 00:25:23,110
There is definitely some interesting
things.
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00:25:36,780 --> 00:25:41,380
The majority of that work is on the
very, very low time frame, and I just
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00:25:41,380 --> 00:25:42,380
have time for that.
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00:25:47,100 --> 00:25:50,700
Timing is always an interesting topic.
I'll only think that confirmation for
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00:25:50,700 --> 00:25:55,600
entries. On sharp moves, some
situations...
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00:26:38,220 --> 00:26:44,300
talk about this relative to david's work
how does volume and spread ratios
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00:26:44,300 --> 00:26:45,300
detect
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00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:08,260
five minute chart today the reversal was
very interesting so today's market yeah
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00:27:08,260 --> 00:27:14,660
definitely we could look at that if we
have time so and by the way i just want
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00:27:14,660 --> 00:27:21,520
to say that um you guys are you know
such great
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00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:27,140
students um we received a lot of good
feedback from you uh regarding this
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00:27:27,140 --> 00:27:32,560
um so one of the things and by the way
for those of you who did not
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00:27:37,550 --> 00:27:43,990
with william uh that was a blast as well
i mean um every
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00:27:43,990 --> 00:27:50,670
every teacher that i worked through this
course with um was awesome in his
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00:27:50,670 --> 00:27:57,310
own way with william i just have such a
great
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00:27:57,310 --> 00:28:04,170
way of interacting and we're so similar
but yet the styles
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00:28:04,170 --> 00:28:06,670
are different like our analysis is the
same
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00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:20,580
the chart in front of me that they
didn't know it was oil some intraday
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00:28:20,580 --> 00:28:27,220
and we went through that so that was
very interesting and useful to students
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00:28:27,220 --> 00:28:31,260
have received a lot of feedback on that
so i just wanted to mention to those of
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00:28:31,260 --> 00:28:37,540
you you know who who did not uh purchase
the series number three i think it's
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00:28:37,540 --> 00:28:41,180
definitely worth it for for those of you
who are serious about tape and chart
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00:28:41,180 --> 00:28:42,180
reading
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00:28:48,110 --> 00:28:54,370
we probably can continue the same way
you know teaching
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00:28:54,370 --> 00:29:01,190
traders you know in that type of format
so what we're gonna do in January is
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we're gonna create what we are calling
the tape reading lab
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00:29:07,790 --> 00:29:13,590
this is the place where William and I
which is gonna come and we're just gonna
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00:29:13,590 --> 00:29:14,590
analyze
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00:29:17,130 --> 00:29:22,630
you guys through this interaction and
constant like you know bombardment of
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00:29:22,630 --> 00:29:29,090
you know of the charts with the analysis
with our views and
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00:29:29,090 --> 00:29:35,150
deductions you know we'll we'll
definitely update you on what's going on
266
00:29:35,150 --> 00:29:39,310
current markets from the tape rigging
point of view and also we'll go through
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00:29:39,310 --> 00:29:44,030
the last week and we'll kind of like
stop at interesting places and we'll
268
00:29:44,030 --> 00:29:48,440
about the analysis and the tactics and
also we'll show you some of the trades
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00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:53,820
you know that we did or so on so forth
so i think it's going to be highly
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00:29:53,820 --> 00:30:00,480
interesting because kind of
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00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:06,640
kind of worked out miraculously this way
so i think there is a lot of value so
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00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:13,100
consider that okay next one uh is there
a way to detect net selling and buying
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00:30:13,100 --> 00:30:14,300
at the edges of distribution
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00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:36,580
In David's book, he has drawn a P &F
chart with this volume inside the boxes.
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00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:40,920
This is the ultimate P &F chart to trade
from the intraday.
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00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:48,320
Really great perspective, David, and we
will actually go
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00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:49,360
through that chart today.
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00:30:50,060 --> 00:30:51,580
So that was in the works.
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00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:59,300
David talked about backing up action was
very low line, similar to what Radon
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00:30:59,300 --> 00:31:01,700
talked about in his presentation,
Springboard.
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00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:10,260
question there uh tests and whether
we're testing supply demand based on the
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00:31:10,260 --> 00:31:14,600
context okay interesting okay
283
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:21,460
uh could you tell a bit more
284
00:31:21,460 --> 00:31:25,360
about the chart reading lab and how to
get the enrollment information i'm very
285
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:31,460
interested um yeah so guys we will send
you the information so don't worry uh
286
00:31:31,460 --> 00:31:35,040
because william and i This is kind of
like a very fresh, raw idea.
287
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:40,580
We just kind of felt, both of us, like
we want to work a little bit together
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00:31:40,580 --> 00:31:41,580
more.
289
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:45,500
And I think it's going to benefit our
community.
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00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:52,760
So I think that we're going to start
somewhere mid -January, end of January,
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00:31:52,980 --> 00:31:55,280
which I just need to launch the whole
semester.
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00:31:55,780 --> 00:32:00,760
And then once the semester is launched,
then we'll...
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00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:06,020
We'll start working on that. It's going
to be on Mondays at 9 a .m. This is one
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00:32:06,020 --> 00:32:10,000
thing that William and I have discussed
because both of our schedules are
295
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:11,600
somewhat packed.
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00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:18,440
But it seems to me that having that
session during the U .S. session
297
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:19,399
is appropriate.
298
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:22,420
We picked up the time specifically when
the...
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00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:36,700
pacific um and then the rest you know
will send you the details okay i think
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00:32:36,700 --> 00:32:42,900
that's it you know for the question so
what i'm gonna do is i'm gonna keep
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00:32:42,900 --> 00:32:48,880
questions in front of me just in case uh
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00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:54,080
some question pops up and um i will
definitely
303
00:33:00,780 --> 00:33:01,780
the material.
304
00:34:13,540 --> 00:34:18,179
So first of all, you have to look at,
you know, the whole structure where we
305
00:34:18,179 --> 00:34:19,178
are.
306
00:34:19,179 --> 00:34:22,520
So let's just say, let's start actually
with the daily.
307
00:34:22,980 --> 00:34:28,560
So we're in some kind of this backing up
action slash up thrust.
308
00:34:29,679 --> 00:34:35,080
It's always important to understand that
you have to think about scenarios,
309
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:37,600
right? So sign of strength or up thrust.
310
00:34:37,820 --> 00:34:41,080
Either a sign of strength is going to
be, you know, holding.
311
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:47,400
and then we're going to have a backing
up action or up thrust is going to
312
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:52,300
and we're going to see that action well
we kind of negated up thrust at this
313
00:34:52,300 --> 00:34:58,600
point why because the price overcame the
resistance of the buying climax and
314
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:04,120
actually stayed there for quite some
time right so we have one close two
315
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:11,040
three four uh then another one right
here um so around four to five
316
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:17,600
closes what do i call progressive closes
that they progress up with the new
317
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:23,980
higher clothes um that kind of clears up
on the previous commitment to the
318
00:35:23,980 --> 00:35:30,000
upside so usually that is the indication
of the sign of strength it's an ability
319
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:36,400
of the price to stay above the
resistance which is extremely important
320
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:41,830
know that it just shows that there is no
selling or strong selling and yet if
321
00:35:41,830 --> 00:35:46,530
the selling comes you know that ability
to stay above the resistance uh shows
322
00:35:46,530 --> 00:35:52,210
the capacity of absorption so for
instance right here we see how on this
323
00:35:52,210 --> 00:35:56,470
supply has emerged that comes from the
increased effort
324
00:35:56,470 --> 00:36:03,390
and also from this tail that we see at
the point
325
00:36:03,390 --> 00:36:08,980
of the resistance from the buying climax
so selling definitely came at that
326
00:36:08,980 --> 00:36:15,840
point and the biggest question when
selling comes what's next is there going
327
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:22,160
to be a continuation down attempts to go
up and then a break and this would act
328
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:28,040
as a confirmation that we are completely
done so something like this where we
329
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:34,920
have selling occurs and then there is a
you know intermediate failure
330
00:36:37,130 --> 00:36:42,590
on the way down but the confirmation of
that comes here when the price breaks to
331
00:36:42,590 --> 00:36:47,010
the downside the same you know this is a
late confirmation and there are a
332
00:36:47,010 --> 00:36:51,970
series of confirmations that we see
along the way but this is probably the
333
00:36:51,970 --> 00:36:58,050
most strongest confirmation where there
is just this uh capitulation of the idea
334
00:36:58,050 --> 00:37:03,490
that the price is gonna go up so we
still have to experience it somewhere
335
00:37:06,090 --> 00:37:11,310
confirmation of the break let's just say
it i'll put it this way but initially
336
00:37:11,310 --> 00:37:17,590
on this bar right here we definitely see
a path that shows sustainability of
337
00:37:17,590 --> 00:37:23,850
that move that showed absorption right
away of that supply we're seeing how
338
00:37:23,850 --> 00:37:30,190
supply comes in what does the next day
show us relatively high volume signature
339
00:37:30,190 --> 00:37:35,290
that is happening on the small bar
340
00:37:38,730 --> 00:37:39,730
Bullish or bearish?
341
00:37:39,930 --> 00:37:42,370
Definitely bullish.
342
00:37:42,650 --> 00:37:46,090
And it shows that there is some
absorption of that supply.
343
00:37:46,470 --> 00:37:51,190
Well, if we are not sure about that, how
about the day after?
344
00:37:59,150 --> 00:38:05,970
So, the day after, if we would see some
kind of emergence of
345
00:38:05,970 --> 00:38:08,230
selling after the...
346
00:38:09,190 --> 00:38:15,510
successful task and day then we would
have attempts to go down or the price
347
00:38:15,510 --> 00:38:22,210
go would go down but it doesn't and
actually on a smaller demand
348
00:38:22,210 --> 00:38:28,050
signature look how how small this volume
bar is
349
00:38:28,050 --> 00:38:31,170
we're seeing that the price is evil
350
00:38:34,990 --> 00:38:40,370
this is a higher close than the close of
that supply day so what does it tell us
351
00:38:40,370 --> 00:38:47,270
it tells us that the price could move up
with more ease ease of movement and we
352
00:38:47,270 --> 00:38:53,390
could call this an ease of movement day
and ease of movement is usually
353
00:38:53,390 --> 00:38:59,970
indicative also of the supply if we're
talking about the demand how come well
354
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:13,080
what does it tell us about the supply it
probably tells us that supply is
355
00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:20,000
exhausted or observed and those are
356
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:25,800
two different definitions absorption and
exhaustion so we have to remember that
357
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:32,020
so on that day it just kind of like
shows to us um you know it's it's you
358
00:39:32,020 --> 00:39:36,280
supply is um has been observed around
these two bars
359
00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:44,420
and what was important about absorption
of supply at this level is that it
360
00:39:44,420 --> 00:39:51,420
happened at the level where previously
supply has come with some kind of
361
00:39:51,420 --> 00:39:58,240
presence right so on this bar
specifically there was a lot of supply
362
00:39:58,240 --> 00:40:05,180
this was a change of behavior bar and
then right here was a small climactic
363
00:40:05,180 --> 00:40:11,950
in of this upswing that also had some
supply behind it not
364
00:40:11,950 --> 00:40:18,730
as much as a previous supply and i
really like this price action why um
365
00:40:18,730 --> 00:40:25,390
if we would be thinking about the timing
of the price getting out of the trading
366
00:40:25,390 --> 00:40:30,310
range we would be thinking that
absorption first needs to happen at the
367
00:40:30,310 --> 00:40:36,590
level absorption number one then it has
to happen at the higher level
368
00:40:40,650 --> 00:40:47,650
we also need to think that the timing
will always coincide with the supply
369
00:40:47,650 --> 00:40:48,650
present.
370
00:40:49,230 --> 00:40:51,150
So what do I mean by that?
371
00:40:51,770 --> 00:40:58,470
Well, imagine that the price cannot
372
00:40:58,470 --> 00:41:04,750
really leave the trading range unless
the majority of the supply has been
373
00:41:04,750 --> 00:41:05,750
observed.
374
00:41:10,990 --> 00:41:17,770
supply available, supply of shares, and
they have the capacity to capitulate
375
00:41:17,770 --> 00:41:22,390
that supply and present it to the
market. And that would produce a
376
00:41:23,070 --> 00:41:29,390
But if that supply is taken from weak
hands away, then they cannot do this
377
00:41:29,390 --> 00:41:30,390
anymore.
378
00:41:30,550 --> 00:41:37,430
They can put on a short position, but
it's not the supply that they have had
379
00:41:37,430 --> 00:41:40,090
purchasing the shares and then selling
those.
380
00:41:40,910 --> 00:41:46,490
So the whole idea behind the composite
man, composite operator, and the
381
00:41:46,490 --> 00:41:53,050
absorption is that composite man just
collects the supply, puts it into
382
00:41:53,050 --> 00:41:59,510
its vault, and then does not present it
to the market for a certain time.
383
00:41:59,770 --> 00:42:05,290
And during that time when that supply is
not available, the price is able to
384
00:42:05,290 --> 00:42:07,330
create some kind of uptrend.
385
00:42:12,650 --> 00:42:17,710
what's going on with the absorption and
the composite men and so on so forth but
386
00:42:17,710 --> 00:42:22,030
for you the most important thing here to
remember we want to see the absorption
387
00:42:22,030 --> 00:42:28,810
of supply in the trading range at two
levels we want to have the absorption at
388
00:42:28,810 --> 00:42:33,050
the lower level and we want to have the
absorption at the high level so what was
389
00:42:33,050 --> 00:42:38,590
so encouraging with this bar is that
supply occurred and then it didn't want
390
00:42:38,590 --> 00:42:45,130
go down so it tells us that instead of
supply occurring
391
00:42:45,130 --> 00:42:52,110
and then we have movement down we have
here more of
392
00:42:52,110 --> 00:42:57,490
the testing period which suggested
continuation to the upside and that was
393
00:42:57,490 --> 00:43:04,330
of the call at the time what was also
important on the micro level was
394
00:43:04,330 --> 00:43:08,230
the next bar so the next bar showed
395
00:43:18,060 --> 00:43:21,720
That selling has diminished, right? So,
for instance, from the capitulation
396
00:43:21,720 --> 00:43:28,400
selling of this level right here,
throughout all of the red volume bars,
397
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:35,040
see how the volume signature went down.
So, selling was
398
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:40,880
left at this point of time. And that
happens also at the high level of the
399
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:45,120
trading range. So, that shows that
selling has been exhausted.
400
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:52,400
support level but also at the resistance
level and what was the result of this
401
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:57,180
bar that was the most important question
and this is something that today we
402
00:43:57,180 --> 00:44:03,920
will be talking a lot about it didn't
commit below the previous bar low
403
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:08,860
which is important and this bar actually
had some commitment to the upside
404
00:44:08,860 --> 00:44:14,540
relative to the bar before it did not
commit below
405
00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:28,320
So this big bar contained the price
action for the next three days into this
406
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:29,299
bar.
407
00:44:29,300 --> 00:44:35,680
And therefore, the result was non
-threatening bullish result, which was
408
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:40,360
normal reaction on selling that was left
and left.
409
00:44:40,580 --> 00:44:45,300
And that was happening at the point of
the resistance. So we were expecting the
410
00:44:45,300 --> 00:44:46,300
move up.
411
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:52,490
Now, as we go, and I said that there are
quite a few bars where you could... see
412
00:44:52,490 --> 00:44:58,710
that commitment to the upside over
previous significant bars and that is
413
00:44:58,710 --> 00:45:04,190
functionality of the sign of strength
it's an ability to stay above the
414
00:45:04,190 --> 00:45:10,830
resistance even when supply occurs you
know we kind of still stay there so
415
00:45:10,830 --> 00:45:16,850
four bars four days were very
interesting in that perspective because
416
00:45:16,850 --> 00:45:19,390
into them everything looks okay
417
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:31,240
came this high of what we would call an
upthrust probe.
418
00:45:32,100 --> 00:45:33,520
Why do we call that?
419
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:40,800
And I believe this is Gary Fullett's
semantic, but I'm sure that he
420
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:42,900
probably took it from somewhere else as
well.
421
00:45:44,220 --> 00:45:51,220
We are probing higher prices, and we
would like to see what
422
00:45:51,220 --> 00:45:53,440
kind of supply is coming in at that
level.
423
00:45:53,770 --> 00:45:55,370
We saw that. We saw that absorption.
424
00:45:55,730 --> 00:46:00,450
And now we're at the higher level. So
once we get to the higher level, look
425
00:46:00,450 --> 00:46:01,450
supply increases.
426
00:46:01,490 --> 00:46:07,890
So there is definitely some selling. And
I think it's purely associated with not
427
00:46:07,890 --> 00:46:14,590
even the stimulus package that was kind
of supposed to happen, was bound to
428
00:46:14,590 --> 00:46:21,250
happen. It's more about, again, the wave
of COVID -19 infection, death
429
00:46:21,250 --> 00:46:22,810
rate that we have throughout.
430
00:46:23,470 --> 00:46:28,890
you know, the whole world, lockdowns
that we're seeing that basically
431
00:46:28,890 --> 00:46:31,110
business and influence the revenue.
432
00:46:32,250 --> 00:46:37,890
So I thought that, you know, this is the
volume signature, you know, for that.
433
00:46:38,270 --> 00:46:42,990
What was disturbing today in the market
is the way, you know, how this bar
434
00:46:42,990 --> 00:46:47,270
unfolded. So, and we'll definitely have
a look. But just to conclude our
435
00:46:47,270 --> 00:46:51,630
analysis here of the daily chart, for
the bullish case scenario,
436
00:46:52,620 --> 00:46:56,580
Because we've seen how supply is
present.
437
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:02,040
And when supply is present, we always
think about the result.
438
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:07,300
What is the result? It looks like we had
a lot of buying into the end of the
439
00:47:07,300 --> 00:47:12,680
day. And that buying brought the close,
you know, still relatively at the high
440
00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:16,500
level. It's higher than the, you know,
upthrust growth right here.
441
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:21,580
But the failure of this bar will be
significant.
442
00:47:23,690 --> 00:47:28,850
what's going to happen next is going to
be very crucial so this week and next
443
00:47:28,850 --> 00:47:34,770
week we will have to see if we're going
to start failing here and start going
444
00:47:34,770 --> 00:47:41,250
down we definitely have an
445
00:47:41,250 --> 00:47:47,290
opportunity even to come back to the
trading range back to the trading range
446
00:47:47,290 --> 00:47:51,050
the most important support is obviously
447
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:59,020
a support that held multiple times and
became a significant support but we also
448
00:47:59,020 --> 00:48:05,700
have the support where absorption has
happened prior to this right so to me
449
00:48:05,700 --> 00:48:12,180
level right here around 3500 that's the
most important level right now to watch
450
00:48:12,180 --> 00:48:18,920
whatever happens in between you know of
where the prices were let's say at 3735
451
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:25,520
this is all you know consolidation,
price movement, and so on and so forth.
452
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:31,280
35, this is where absorption has
happened before. 35, this is where the
453
00:48:31,280 --> 00:48:32,280
selling has come.
454
00:48:34,060 --> 00:48:36,980
This is something that I want you to
concentrate on.
455
00:48:37,540 --> 00:48:44,180
So let's now go to the five minutes and
see what kind of trades we had there
456
00:48:44,180 --> 00:48:45,180
today.
457
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:47,960
I wasn't trading today.
458
00:48:50,570 --> 00:48:56,910
But I think that the most significant
thing, I should say I wasn't intraday
459
00:48:56,910 --> 00:49:01,170
trading today. I'm still, you know,
falling over 50 positions that I have
460
00:49:01,170 --> 00:49:07,890
currently, but in different timeframes,
swing and long -term campaign positions.
461
00:49:08,070 --> 00:49:10,370
But sometimes I intraday trade.
462
00:49:10,570 --> 00:49:12,130
I like intraday trading.
463
00:49:13,250 --> 00:49:19,150
The structures, you know, kind of give
you... The intraday timeframe gives you
464
00:49:19,150 --> 00:49:25,260
an opportunity to... practice structural
analysis you know supply and volume
465
00:49:25,260 --> 00:49:31,800
obviously much faster so you know the
feedback comes to you in a much
466
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:36,040
a much faster way and obviously you know
when we have a good move you know it's
467
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:41,100
always a good money what was interesting
about today is what happened after the
468
00:49:41,100 --> 00:49:46,040
close of the u .s session because at
this moment right here on friday it
469
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:48,140
bearish on the daily chart
470
00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:55,500
But yet, this rally into the close
spoiled the whole bearish look.
471
00:49:55,760 --> 00:50:02,100
But then look what happens afterwards.
Right away, on opening Friday night, we
472
00:50:02,100 --> 00:50:04,820
are going down.
473
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:06,620
There is no lift.
474
00:50:07,100 --> 00:50:10,700
And then a sign of weakness, LPSY.
475
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:17,460
That looks like, again, a very weak
rally suggesting a downward movement.
476
00:50:19,050 --> 00:50:21,790
We go for a right overnight.
477
00:50:22,770 --> 00:50:28,690
And again, there are a lot of closures
in Europe, specifically in the UK,
478
00:50:28,870 --> 00:50:35,410
London, and so on and so forth. So it is
more related to that market, and
479
00:50:35,410 --> 00:50:36,670
we're seeing this reaction.
480
00:50:52,970 --> 00:50:58,110
as this reaction so we would be
comparing it and as i was kind of like
481
00:50:58,110 --> 00:51:04,090
the market um i was thinking this was a
really good point of entry right here
482
00:51:04,090 --> 00:51:10,730
and it reminded me uh of a trade that i
did um i believe on thursday
483
00:51:10,730 --> 00:51:16,190
but that was with neotech so let me just
quickly show you the structure
484
00:51:16,190 --> 00:51:20,350
i'm gonna show you that on let's say one
485
00:51:41,000 --> 00:51:46,920
So we're seeing here for NASDAQ, and S
&P had a slightly different structure on
486
00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:47,920
that day.
487
00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:54,780
That first initials attempt to go up,
fail, sign of weakness, LPSY, kind of
488
00:51:54,780 --> 00:52:01,040
reminds us of what has happened today in
S &P, right? And then we have like a
489
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:06,920
waterfall here into the climactic
action, selling climax, and then the
490
00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:08,800
recovers, and then we have...
491
00:52:10,060 --> 00:52:16,140
of the same magnitude as the
capitulation let down so what do we see
492
00:52:16,140 --> 00:52:22,840
structure in the context of the volume
signature and the structure itself this
493
00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:29,340
type of action into phase c and then
recovery and then continuation
494
00:52:29,340 --> 00:52:35,860
the volume signature went down supply
decreased dramatically
495
00:52:35,860 --> 00:52:37,840
so look at
496
00:52:39,760 --> 00:52:46,600
the supply we have after a climactic
action we have twice as less
497
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:52,560
supply and it doesn't produce the you
know a favorable result for the bearers
498
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:57,520
creates a higher low we also look at the
texture of the decline and we see that
499
00:52:57,520 --> 00:53:03,460
the spread is diminishing relative to
the capitulation climactic run so that
500
00:53:03,460 --> 00:53:07,720
a very bullish sign so my trade was
opened right here
501
00:53:10,990 --> 00:53:17,990
So it kind of reminded me of today's
price action, where we've
502
00:53:17,990 --> 00:53:24,950
seen the same move down, second leg down
into phase C,
503
00:53:25,130 --> 00:53:27,950
which is a high, a low.
504
00:53:29,170 --> 00:53:35,870
And from here, you just go up. And I
thought that that was a very interesting
505
00:53:35,870 --> 00:53:39,450
recovery today, you know, everywhere.
506
00:53:40,030 --> 00:53:43,610
And obviously when you look at something
like Rothwell, that was just
507
00:53:43,610 --> 00:53:44,610
incredible.
508
00:53:45,230 --> 00:53:51,930
There's just a lot of points there
within the intraday structure of the
509
00:53:51,930 --> 00:53:53,390
the European session low.
510
00:53:54,130 --> 00:53:58,430
So that was a relatively easy trade to
make.
511
00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:17,360
structure that i showed you i made a
saying recovery sounds laborious so
512
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:24,220
laborious well yes um you could
definitely say that i mean we're talking
513
00:54:24,220 --> 00:54:30,860
this but you probably have to think
about the recovery of this flow because
514
00:54:30,860 --> 00:54:37,460
you would be thinking you know the
recovery how it happens first of all we
515
00:54:37,460 --> 00:54:41,040
to acknowledge that there was some
buying on the way down we see all of the
516
00:54:41,040 --> 00:54:47,660
sales here then look at the momentum of
the first two or three waves um
517
00:54:47,660 --> 00:54:54,300
there is a lot of momentum right there
right so uh it's not like the recovery
518
00:54:54,300 --> 00:55:01,160
started with not a lot of momentum and
then after the initial move
519
00:55:01,160 --> 00:55:04,140
down in the us session we still have
520
00:55:17,070 --> 00:55:23,890
of the abnormally after the after us
option all open because you
521
00:55:23,890 --> 00:55:28,970
usually want to see this type of volume
profile during the us session
522
00:55:28,970 --> 00:55:35,850
and this one had you know these bars
these bars right here so
523
00:55:35,850 --> 00:55:41,550
whenever we see abnormality like this we
always question you know why what's
524
00:55:41,550 --> 00:55:44,110
going on here well look at the result
525
00:55:45,230 --> 00:55:49,810
that's the most important thing what is
the result of the bars that have that
526
00:55:49,810 --> 00:55:56,510
type of high volume signature well we
don't have a really good progression to
527
00:55:56,510 --> 00:56:03,510
the downside and we are just kind of
bringing below this
528
00:56:03,510 --> 00:56:10,290
support level and recovering right away
so this feels
529
00:56:10,290 --> 00:56:12,790
like a spring with the
530
00:56:17,200 --> 00:56:22,740
into the account the magnitude you know
the texture of the decline there was
531
00:56:22,740 --> 00:56:27,580
really like very heavy selling only on
one bar and then after that everything
532
00:56:27,580 --> 00:56:32,640
diminished in terms of selling and i
thought that that was a really easy uh
533
00:56:32,640 --> 00:56:38,320
trade today to the upside now i think i
made it talking about this
534
00:56:45,100 --> 00:56:51,680
that there was some buying let's say in
this area right here after that there is
535
00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:58,420
no aggressive buying we see that from
the volume signature and we see that
536
00:56:58,420 --> 00:57:05,200
from the spread action as well but
what's important is that to understand i
537
00:57:05,200 --> 00:57:10,960
is that we bought here they were buying
on the way up here there was um
538
00:57:10,960 --> 00:57:14,260
definitely buying in this area right
here
539
00:57:16,240 --> 00:57:22,700
So we saw buying, buying, and then after
that, that buying exhausted
540
00:57:22,700 --> 00:57:23,700
supply.
541
00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:34,800
And when supply is exhausted, look at
the volume signature. This is what we're
542
00:57:34,800 --> 00:57:39,340
going to have. The volume goes down, and
supply goes down.
543
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:43,980
And because supply is exhausted,
544
00:57:45,390 --> 00:57:52,130
can go up without a lot of demand so we
could say that both supply
545
00:57:52,130 --> 00:57:58,170
and demand were exhausted after selling
and buying buying has won but because
546
00:57:58,170 --> 00:58:04,870
both exhausted you know in in that in
that moment of buying and absorption
547
00:58:04,870 --> 00:58:11,590
we don't have a huge volume signature in
those type of cases we're going to say
548
00:58:11,590 --> 00:58:16,740
that there is some kind of ease of
movement as the price goes up. With the
549
00:58:16,740 --> 00:58:21,420
of movement, the main thing in tape
reading and in chart reading is just to
550
00:58:21,420 --> 00:58:25,320
recognize that indeed the price
progresses to the upside.
551
00:58:25,860 --> 00:58:30,240
Can it overcome, let's say, the last
commitment to the downside?
552
00:58:30,900 --> 00:58:36,540
Yes, it can. How did it do so? Because
we don't want just, you know, kind of be
553
00:58:36,540 --> 00:58:42,740
at this very basic level of
understanding that, you know, there is a
554
00:58:43,040 --> 00:58:45,080
We need to dig a little bit deeper.
555
00:58:45,900 --> 00:58:47,620
How did it break out?
556
00:58:48,400 --> 00:58:53,620
Did it extend way above the breakout
area or not?
557
00:58:53,880 --> 00:58:58,620
And I would say that this is a very good
breakout. It also had a marginal
558
00:58:58,620 --> 00:59:02,660
increase in the volume signature that
suggests that demand was increasing and
559
00:59:02,660 --> 00:59:03,680
pushing the price up.
560
00:59:04,140 --> 00:59:07,920
Okay, well, what is the next level for
us to overcome?
561
00:59:08,560 --> 00:59:10,000
Probably this bar.
562
00:59:10,650 --> 00:59:15,770
You know, this was the most important
bar today in the U .S. session.
563
00:59:16,930 --> 00:59:18,730
It needed to be overcome.
564
00:59:19,530 --> 00:59:24,910
So we're seeing aggression of the
breakout that brings us to about one
565
00:59:24,910 --> 00:59:28,970
that bar. And that's important because
we know that, you know, there will be
566
00:59:28,970 --> 00:59:34,670
instances when this whole down bar will
be covered by one bar because there is
567
00:59:34,670 --> 00:59:35,670
so much demand.
568
00:59:35,690 --> 00:59:38,250
But demand has exhausted itself already.
569
00:59:38,780 --> 00:59:42,700
Demand has bought in quite a lot of
supply.
570
00:59:43,720 --> 00:59:49,580
So to me, this bar showed some
aggression after the exhaustion by the
571
00:59:49,580 --> 00:59:55,360
itself. To have this capacity to break
out like this and also to cover one half
572
00:59:55,360 --> 00:59:58,780
of that capitulation bar was impressive.
573
00:59:59,320 --> 01:00:00,880
What happens afterwards?
574
01:00:01,180 --> 01:00:07,240
Do we go down or not? We don't. And even
when supply, marginal supply comes in,
575
01:00:07,690 --> 01:00:13,190
we're quickly absorbing that so we're
seeing the absorption at a slightly
576
01:00:13,190 --> 01:00:20,130
level of the breakout and tape reading
is really or
577
01:00:20,130 --> 01:00:23,890
chart reading is really about the
unfolding picture
578
01:00:23,890 --> 01:00:30,770
how to explain that you
579
01:00:30,770 --> 01:00:36,450
could have a very definitive let's say
point of entry
580
01:00:37,870 --> 01:00:43,850
happens afterwards is that um you're
basically answering the question about
581
01:00:43,850 --> 01:00:49,970
about the follow -through after the
point of the entry after the breakout
582
01:00:49,970 --> 01:00:55,430
the reversal whatever signal you are you
know using there is there going to be
583
01:00:55,430 --> 01:01:00,590
enough follow -through for the price to
continue its movement in the direction
584
01:01:00,590 --> 01:01:07,420
of that entry so you kind of start
creating that spike of you know or tape
585
01:01:07,420 --> 01:01:13,900
-reading, chart -reading story as the
price unfolds. And your goal as an
586
01:01:13,900 --> 01:01:18,060
and as a trader, as a tape -reader, as a
chart -reader, is just to follow that
587
01:01:18,060 --> 01:01:24,580
story. And when the story starts to do
something else, it kind of shows
588
01:01:24,580 --> 01:01:26,320
a different picture.
589
01:01:26,780 --> 01:01:32,620
That's when you understand that the
change of behavior is upon us, and maybe
590
01:01:32,620 --> 01:01:36,100
even something more profound is the
change of character.
591
01:01:36,940 --> 01:01:42,100
collapse of the structure is going to
happen so if we would like follow this
592
01:01:42,100 --> 01:01:48,640
story we could see that the breakout has
happened it acts as a confirmation of
593
01:01:48,640 --> 01:01:55,560
the reversal and buying that we we saw
at the beginning of
594
01:01:55,560 --> 01:02:01,920
this move actually into the end of this
downswing and then a testing
595
01:02:01,920 --> 01:02:07,600
so we're not going through the analysis
of all of those bars but Those are the
596
01:02:07,600 --> 01:02:11,700
bars that show that conditions change,
that change is happening now.
597
01:02:13,560 --> 01:02:17,740
Absorption at the higher level, then
after the absorption, do we have a
598
01:02:17,740 --> 01:02:21,100
continuation? Yes. And we need to
overcome this level.
599
01:02:21,340 --> 01:02:28,060
Do we do that? Yes, we do overcome it.
And look at what we do when we overcome
600
01:02:28,060 --> 01:02:29,060
that level.
601
01:02:29,440 --> 01:02:34,640
The bars are not expanding, and the
volume signature is diminishing.
602
01:02:36,140 --> 01:02:41,260
Initially, you would be thinking that's
probably a deterioration of the demand.
603
01:02:41,500 --> 01:02:43,120
And you would be absolutely correct.
604
01:02:43,600 --> 01:02:49,380
Why? Well, because the result,
characteristically, is showing
605
01:02:49,380 --> 01:02:51,500
that it's diminishing.
606
01:02:51,880 --> 01:02:55,280
And therefore, we should be expecting
some kind of reaction.
607
01:02:55,860 --> 01:03:00,240
So, what kind of reaction do we have by
overcoming this level?
608
01:03:00,740 --> 01:03:03,220
This one and this one.
609
01:03:04,080 --> 01:03:08,460
And then in between those two reactions,
we have a bar that actually propels us
610
01:03:08,460 --> 01:03:15,360
up. And that closes at the higher level
than the high of this big capitulation
611
01:03:15,360 --> 01:03:16,360
bar.
612
01:03:17,600 --> 01:03:20,120
Characteristically, is it bullish or
bearish?
613
01:03:20,560 --> 01:03:23,260
We were expecting a reaction from here.
614
01:03:23,880 --> 01:03:30,260
It came as 1, 2, 3 or ABC structure, but
it didn't go
615
01:03:30,260 --> 01:03:31,540
below this.
616
01:03:33,900 --> 01:03:40,520
So, therefore, this reaction shows
bullish characteristics
617
01:03:40,520 --> 01:03:47,360
and suggests that supply is still
618
01:03:47,360 --> 01:03:48,560
exhausted.
619
01:03:50,980 --> 01:03:52,620
That suggests continuation.
620
01:03:53,160 --> 01:03:57,560
And how do we continue? What is the next
thing that we need to do?
621
01:03:57,840 --> 01:04:02,340
Well, obviously, we need to overcome the
next two levels.
622
01:04:07,120 --> 01:04:12,680
do we overcome this would tell us what's
going to happen next would you say that
623
01:04:12,680 --> 01:04:17,740
this was a very strong breakout i mean
relative to this first level i would say
624
01:04:17,740 --> 01:04:24,340
yes right so we're committing first
above um you know maybe not as much as
625
01:04:24,340 --> 01:04:29,860
here at the beginning and that is also
suggestive you know that breakout you
626
01:04:29,860 --> 01:04:33,960
know a commitment of the breakout
suggest that even though we're gonna go
627
01:04:34,460 --> 01:04:37,360
It's not going to be as dynamic rally
anymore.
628
01:04:37,980 --> 01:04:44,860
And we probably need to tighten up our
stop losses as we go into the conditions
629
01:04:44,860 --> 01:04:50,080
that are going to be, you know, where
Debiant is going to be, you know, so
630
01:04:50,080 --> 01:04:53,600
dominant or, you know, showing up so
much.
631
01:04:55,020 --> 01:04:56,440
But we do commit above.
632
01:04:57,060 --> 01:05:02,280
Then the next test, again, acts kind of
like the test that we've had before. So,
633
01:05:02,340 --> 01:05:08,780
again. bullish character of the test
breakout out of that test again not that
634
01:05:08,780 --> 01:05:14,860
impressive suggesting that you know that
demand is somewhat deteriorating and we
635
01:05:14,860 --> 01:05:20,460
are seeing a little bit of the supply at
this point on this particular bar so
636
01:05:20,460 --> 01:05:27,400
let me just clean this up this bar right
here was suggested that supply was
637
01:05:27,400 --> 01:05:31,460
coming in right away we want to see the
test the test was okay
638
01:05:32,220 --> 01:05:36,800
But the breakout did not impress us. The
next breakout does not impress us
639
01:05:36,800 --> 01:05:42,080
either. And then we have this bar right
here, which is basically telling us that
640
01:05:42,080 --> 01:05:47,960
there is some kind of conclusion, small
climactic conclusion
641
01:05:47,960 --> 01:05:51,700
to the action where demand is exhausted.
642
01:05:52,800 --> 01:05:57,560
Whenever that happens, and there was a
question here, so let me quickly just...
643
01:06:12,810 --> 01:06:18,970
so the question was how do we conclude
um or how we test right i think the
644
01:06:18,970 --> 01:06:23,890
question was about the test let me
rephrase this how do we conclude that
645
01:06:23,890 --> 01:06:30,670
the end of the swing because if this is
the end of the of the swing then
646
01:06:30,670 --> 01:06:37,490
this is the most optimal place to exit
we want to kind of find
647
01:06:37,490 --> 01:06:41,790
that so we could have conditions where
648
01:06:43,740 --> 01:06:49,300
deterioration of the demand and then
supply comes in and produces the bar
649
01:06:49,300 --> 01:06:53,580
this the change of behavior bar we could
have
650
01:06:53,580 --> 01:07:00,360
deterioration of the demand and then
sudden
651
01:07:00,360 --> 01:07:07,220
surge of the capitulation by by the weak
hands as they are entering
652
01:07:07,220 --> 01:07:08,220
this position
653
01:07:39,980 --> 01:07:45,460
then the next bar acts as a change of
behavior because as you would look at
654
01:07:45,460 --> 01:07:51,620
as you would look at the whole move
655
01:07:51,620 --> 01:07:58,500
since the low we probably had only two
other bars that are somewhat similar
656
01:07:58,500 --> 01:08:05,080
to the bar in question and then look at
how the volume signature has increased
657
01:08:05,080 --> 01:08:10,480
and we've already said that supply
started to come in started to come in
658
01:08:10,480 --> 01:08:16,800
started to come in somewhere here on the
climactic bar itself and then again so
659
01:08:16,800 --> 01:08:23,600
supply is subtle but it's coming in and
this red bar now acts as a change of
660
01:08:23,600 --> 01:08:29,520
behavior so and therefore we expect from
here some kind of reversal
661
01:08:29,520 --> 01:08:36,260
change of behavior kind of like a much
of
662
01:08:36,260 --> 01:08:37,260
larger magnitude
663
01:08:38,250 --> 01:08:43,410
possible trading range so there is no
reason for us first of all not to take
664
01:08:43,410 --> 01:08:48,470
profit and secondly not to consider
exits in the position altogether so
665
01:08:48,470 --> 01:08:52,830
therefore i thought that these two bars
were kind of like perfect for the exit
666
01:08:52,830 --> 01:08:59,010
if you miss that then just exiting on
this bar and this bar
667
01:08:59,010 --> 01:09:05,870
would be probably the next exit that i
would highly
668
01:09:05,870 --> 01:09:12,729
suggest and you should be done for the
day at that point of time so that was
669
01:09:12,729 --> 01:09:19,529
main trade for today and hopefully that
satisfies the question about you know
670
01:09:19,529 --> 01:09:25,510
going through okay something else
671
01:09:25,510 --> 01:09:29,050
really quickly that I want to mention
and then let go
672
01:09:41,100 --> 01:09:45,260
like this um and obviously there is a
lot of talk about tesla you know how it
673
01:09:45,260 --> 01:09:51,720
influences the move especially of the s
p uh but tesla was not um you know
674
01:09:51,720 --> 01:09:58,640
i i think not the only reason you know
why we had this move because tesla is
675
01:09:58,640 --> 01:10:05,240
not in the doubt you know tesla um you
know it's not in other indexes uh you
676
01:10:05,240 --> 01:10:08,260
know it's entered uh s p and yeah
677
01:10:09,710 --> 01:10:16,610
in tesla to the downside and it kind of
influences a lot
678
01:10:16,610 --> 01:10:23,490
the index first and with that by the way
i'm kind of expecting maybe that with
679
01:10:23,490 --> 01:10:30,270
more of trading in tesla we're gonna see
how volatility there might actually
680
01:10:30,270 --> 01:10:34,810
start to diminish doesn't mean that
tesla is not gonna move up or down
681
01:10:36,620 --> 01:10:41,260
Diminishing volatility could be observed
not only in consolidations, but in the
682
01:10:41,260 --> 01:10:43,160
direction of moves as well.
683
01:10:43,920 --> 01:10:50,500
So I would be noticing what is behaving
well and better than,
684
01:10:50,580 --> 01:10:51,940
you know, other indices.
685
01:10:52,160 --> 01:10:58,200
So obviously, Russell has just been
amazing, and it had an amazing run after
686
01:10:58,200 --> 01:11:02,560
self -thrust probe. It was the
strongest, comparatively, index, you
687
01:11:06,320 --> 01:11:10,560
be watching, you know, what's going to
happen here tomorrow and into the end of
688
01:11:10,560 --> 01:11:11,318
the week.
689
01:11:11,320 --> 01:11:13,420
Could we recover and continue?
690
01:11:13,680 --> 01:11:17,000
So the days are going to be acting as a
test.
691
01:11:17,780 --> 01:11:19,480
So just a thought there.
692
01:11:21,320 --> 01:11:22,320
Okay.
693
01:11:36,910 --> 01:11:41,970
This is what we've done with some of our
students in the Wyckoff Trading Course
694
01:11:41,970 --> 01:11:48,770
Part 2, which is the practicum. So,
Trading Course Part
695
01:11:48,770 --> 01:11:54,370
1 is all about the knowledge. Trading
Course Part 2 is all about practicing
696
01:11:54,370 --> 01:11:59,850
skill of recognition of the concepts
that we've learned in WTC 1.
697
01:12:00,310 --> 01:12:04,270
Those are advanced students, you know,
they all went through WTC.
698
01:12:06,890 --> 01:12:13,670
requisite for the practicum. So they're
somewhat at a different level and
699
01:12:13,670 --> 01:12:17,850
it allows us to go through a lot of
exercises during the session.
700
01:12:19,250 --> 01:12:26,030
One of the works that we decided to do
in the spring semester of
701
01:12:26,030 --> 01:12:28,070
2020 is just to read the book together.
702
01:12:28,490 --> 01:12:34,490
And we've chosen David's book. I went to
David at that time and I said to him,
703
01:12:34,550 --> 01:12:41,320
well, listen, this is what we want to do
do you mind if you know do we have your
704
01:12:41,320 --> 01:12:46,420
okay and blessing to do that and he was
really excited he said absolutely just
705
01:12:46,420 --> 01:12:53,200
let me know how it goes and so on so
forth so we pick specific
706
01:12:53,200 --> 01:12:59,660
chapters of interest to students so we
pick the chapter on the screen on the
707
01:12:59,660 --> 01:13:04,480
upthrust absorption chart started and
then two chapters on tape reading
708
01:13:06,909 --> 01:13:11,870
So, what we're going to do today is
we're going to quickly go through those
709
01:13:11,870 --> 01:13:14,450
presentations by all of these students.
710
01:13:15,650 --> 01:13:22,530
I did ask students today whether, you
know, I could use their slides, you
711
01:13:22,530 --> 01:13:25,330
in this class, and a majority of them
said yes.
712
01:13:25,570 --> 01:13:31,470
Some of them did not come back to me,
you know, in the email, so I hope that
713
01:13:31,470 --> 01:13:33,190
this is okay.
714
01:13:34,920 --> 01:13:41,660
But I wanted to have this slide because
for those of you who have not
715
01:13:41,660 --> 01:13:47,460
done this work, who have not read his
book, this could be another way
716
01:13:47,460 --> 01:13:54,340
of working with that book
717
01:13:54,340 --> 01:13:58,060
or maybe to conduct some initial work.
718
01:13:59,120 --> 01:14:03,640
So you could just go through the slides.
719
01:14:04,510 --> 01:14:08,010
We're not going to do a lot of work
around it today.
720
01:14:09,250 --> 01:14:14,830
I also want to say that for those of you
who do not have this book, who have not
721
01:14:14,830 --> 01:14:18,170
read this book, please do.
722
01:14:19,350 --> 01:14:21,810
This is not just a tribute to David.
723
01:14:34,030 --> 01:14:40,830
wgc course number one we are uh the
required material is hane's book the
724
01:14:40,830 --> 01:14:47,330
three uh top skills of uh for top
trading three skills for top trading
725
01:14:47,330 --> 01:14:54,210
whereas uh you know in course number two
it's more advanced material so
726
01:14:54,210 --> 01:15:01,090
david's book is more appropriate all
right so the first one uh uh is chapter
727
01:15:01,090 --> 01:15:03,010
is on sprints from serger
728
01:15:04,330 --> 01:15:05,330
Thank you, Sergio.
729
01:15:05,490 --> 01:15:10,470
And let's definitely go through some
definitions. Spring is a washout,
730
01:15:10,490 --> 01:15:17,190
penetration of the trading range or
support level that fails to follow
731
01:15:17,270 --> 01:15:19,150
And this is a very important statement
here.
732
01:15:20,050 --> 01:15:27,010
It's a temporary commitment to the
downside that does not resolve in a
733
01:15:27,010 --> 01:15:27,889
down move.
734
01:15:27,890 --> 01:15:31,950
If you remember it like that, I think
that would be sufficient.
735
01:15:33,480 --> 01:15:37,360
And obviously, it reverses and becomes
an up move.
736
01:15:38,180 --> 01:15:44,140
So failure to attract new selling and
failure to follow through,
737
01:15:44,380 --> 01:15:51,380
those are kind of the most important
ideas. And also, a comeback of the price
738
01:15:51,380 --> 01:15:52,880
into the trading range.
739
01:15:54,660 --> 01:15:58,680
Again, this is how quickly I want to go
through the slides. And then when you
740
01:15:58,680 --> 01:16:01,480
have those, you could be a little bit
more...
741
01:16:02,510 --> 01:16:04,150
deliberate when you read
742
01:16:38,860 --> 01:16:45,360
Obviously, our risk increases relative
to the risk when we buy the spring
743
01:16:45,360 --> 01:16:49,380
itself. So let's say we could buy the
spring itself, we could buy the tap.
744
01:16:49,800 --> 01:16:52,980
And there are multiple spots here where
we could buy.
745
01:16:53,280 --> 01:16:56,560
And there were quite a few questions on
the points of entry.
746
01:16:57,000 --> 01:17:01,620
So this is a really great example for us
to go through. So I'm just going to
747
01:17:01,620 --> 01:17:06,600
walk you through some of the points of
entry that I would be thinking about
748
01:17:06,600 --> 01:17:07,600
in general.
749
01:17:07,760 --> 01:17:11,600
So there are different types of springs.
750
01:17:11,820 --> 01:17:18,000
So spring number three is going to be a
spring with the low volume signature
751
01:17:18,000 --> 01:17:24,980
and very low penetration of the support.
752
01:17:31,420 --> 01:17:36,020
And usually the way how I show this to
my students is that
753
01:17:40,390 --> 01:17:46,830
where there is a tail, an intraday tail
that goes below
754
01:17:46,830 --> 01:17:48,250
the support.
755
01:18:13,320 --> 01:18:18,780
that all happens on low volume signature
that is dimension so that suggests that
756
01:18:18,780 --> 01:18:25,620
supply is exhausted and there is no
follow -through
757
01:18:25,620 --> 01:18:27,760
there's going to be no follow -through
to the downside
758
01:18:27,760 --> 01:18:33,780
that would be our
759
01:18:33,780 --> 01:18:40,720
point of entry number one the second
point of entry that
760
01:18:40,720 --> 01:18:41,720
we don't see
761
01:18:48,270 --> 01:18:53,490
Even though there are some last points
of support here that come, you know, on
762
01:18:53,490 --> 01:19:00,170
the reaction in phase D, and we could
say even that the test here could be
763
01:19:00,170 --> 01:19:04,810
labeled as last point of support. I
usually label this as a test, but you
764
01:19:04,810 --> 01:19:06,610
label it as last point of support.
765
01:19:07,070 --> 01:19:10,430
What I mean by the last point of support
is the higher low.
766
01:19:19,240 --> 01:19:23,600
type of entry you know you'll answer
just based on the reversal there's
767
01:19:23,600 --> 01:19:29,700
nothing uh too much to that okay so
let's talk about
768
01:19:29,700 --> 01:19:36,440
phase c and screen and the task points
of entry and with
769
01:19:36,440 --> 01:19:41,680
this we're going to say that this is a
screen number two so we said screen
770
01:19:41,680 --> 01:19:47,160
number three we said last point of
support
771
01:19:50,000 --> 01:19:56,680
This is entry number one, entry number
two, entry number three, a test
772
01:19:56,680 --> 01:19:59,600
of screen number two.
773
01:20:02,460 --> 01:20:06,380
So there are quite a few points of entry
here that we could find.
774
01:20:06,660 --> 01:20:13,560
First of all, even though it's not
advisable to buy screen number two, for
775
01:20:13,560 --> 01:20:18,420
of you who are more advanced could think
through the logic of why it is
776
01:20:18,420 --> 01:20:19,420
possible.
777
01:20:19,660 --> 01:20:25,600
And you could actually differentiate
between buying and selling on the way
778
01:20:26,060 --> 01:20:30,040
You could do that. And I'm kind of
challenging you a little bit here, even
779
01:20:30,040 --> 01:20:31,340
though it's not by the book.
780
01:20:32,960 --> 01:20:34,000
But you could do that.
781
01:20:34,760 --> 01:20:37,600
Usually we would say that we would be
buying a test.
782
01:20:37,920 --> 01:20:39,380
How would we be buying a test?
783
01:20:39,760 --> 01:20:43,100
Well, we want to see a high or low, and
we want to see some kind of recovery.
784
01:20:43,720 --> 01:20:46,380
So these reversal bars...
785
01:20:51,180 --> 01:20:57,540
points of entry the local breakouts of
those
786
01:20:57,540 --> 01:21:04,020
lows of the test are also possible
points of entry for us
787
01:21:04,020 --> 01:21:09,400
so I'm gonna put here reversal bars
788
01:21:30,000 --> 01:21:36,520
of entry i mean there are a couple we
also could enter on what i call a sign
789
01:21:36,520 --> 01:21:42,200
strength bar now a lot of my students
when they come you know and i ask them
790
01:21:42,200 --> 01:21:47,420
what is a sign of strength you know the
most common answer to that is usually
791
01:21:47,420 --> 01:21:54,160
well um it's the increase of the volume
signature and
792
01:21:54,160 --> 01:21:57,780
increase of the bar of the spread so
793
01:22:02,190 --> 01:22:08,010
of strength bar but they don't give me
the definition of a sign of strength
794
01:22:08,010 --> 01:22:12,650
rally and sign of strength bar and a
sign of strength rally are two different
795
01:22:12,650 --> 01:22:18,150
things a sign of strength bar is a part
of a sign of strength rally
796
01:22:18,150 --> 01:22:24,090
and indeed characteristically the sign
of strength bar is gonna
797
01:22:24,090 --> 01:22:29,230
see the increase in spread and it's
gonna see increase in the volume
798
01:22:29,230 --> 01:22:31,230
and from this chart we see both
799
01:22:32,780 --> 01:22:36,800
the increase in spread and we see the
increase in the volume signature that is
800
01:22:36,800 --> 01:22:42,940
behind that increase of the spread a
sign of trend bar is the point of entry
801
01:22:42,940 --> 01:22:48,000
you could enter the sign of strength bar
at the close you could enter it on the
802
01:22:48,000 --> 01:22:53,240
test of that bar you could enter it
intraday on the breakout so quite a few
803
01:22:53,240 --> 01:22:58,560
entries there as well so that's our
fourth point of entry
804
01:22:58,560 --> 01:23:04,940
we want to buy a sign of strength bar
before
805
01:23:04,940 --> 01:23:11,620
we hit the resistance we do not want to
buy a sign of strength bar above
806
01:23:11,620 --> 01:23:17,120
the level of the resistance why because
we know that the backing up action is
807
01:23:17,120 --> 01:23:22,600
going to come and it's going to not only
come into the body of our point of
808
01:23:22,600 --> 01:23:29,000
entry bar but potentially could go even
lower and get us out whereas the sign of
809
01:23:29,000 --> 01:23:31,180
strength bar in the middle of the
trading range
810
01:23:32,780 --> 01:23:38,460
less of an opportunity to be violated
and that's the whole thing you know
811
01:23:38,460 --> 01:23:44,780
the final strength bar okay well our
next point of entry is going to be
812
01:23:44,780 --> 01:23:51,280
around the backing up action and the
backup action could happen only in
813
01:23:51,280 --> 01:23:56,900
multiple ways here we see a very kind of
like a relatively shallow backing up
814
01:23:56,900 --> 01:24:03,360
action and we see that the duration of
it is very short so therefore
815
01:24:03,360 --> 01:24:09,260
you know you usually have this type of
structures where you have a test
816
01:24:09,260 --> 01:24:16,000
of the supply that came initially and we
see exactly that or we see a
817
01:24:16,000 --> 01:24:22,760
more pronounced supply that kind of
becomes the trading range
818
01:24:22,760 --> 01:24:28,640
and then there is a third variation i'm
not going to talk about this here that
819
01:24:28,640 --> 01:24:35,160
is a backing up action out of the apex
formation, which has a very
820
01:24:35,160 --> 01:24:41,940
minimal result to the downside and has
also the shortest duration
821
01:24:41,940 --> 01:24:44,820
out of all of the backing up actions.
822
01:24:45,480 --> 01:24:51,040
So here is our next point of the entry.
So we want to enter on the reversal
823
01:24:51,040 --> 01:24:54,060
somewhere here, or within the structure
of the trading range.
824
01:25:02,060 --> 01:25:08,300
local breakout of the backing up action
so here and here
825
01:25:08,300 --> 01:25:15,300
so you kind of could see that the reason
why i have so
826
01:25:15,300 --> 01:25:22,240
many scaled in positions usually is
because i'm recognizing that there is
827
01:25:22,240 --> 01:25:28,440
a confirmation after a confirmation that
comes on the way up through phase d
828
01:25:28,440 --> 01:25:33,680
and then going into phase e and you
could use those confirmations as your
829
01:25:33,680 --> 01:25:34,940
initial points of entry.
830
01:25:35,380 --> 01:25:39,900
Once you've accumulated a significant
position, then you just stay with the
831
01:25:39,900 --> 01:25:44,820
trend. But if the price reverses around
the resistance in the upthrust type of
832
01:25:44,820 --> 01:25:51,620
manner, then you are not fully invested
in the position and
833
01:25:51,620 --> 01:25:52,620
you're...
834
01:25:57,770 --> 01:26:02,170
So hopefully that covers multiple
questions on the points of the entries
835
01:26:02,170 --> 01:26:05,510
confirmations. Let me just talk about
confirmations a little bit more.
836
01:26:05,730 --> 01:26:07,990
So what would we consider a
confirmation?
837
01:26:09,150 --> 01:26:15,270
Well, we want to understand the action
itself first. So here is an action. What
838
01:26:15,270 --> 01:26:20,590
is an action? It's a potential spring
where the price commits to the downside,
839
01:26:20,590 --> 01:26:24,270
and we want to see whether this is a
temporary commitment or not.
840
01:26:24,650 --> 01:26:27,310
What would be a confirmation that this
is a sprint?
841
01:26:27,710 --> 01:26:31,530
Well, we know that the price needs to
come back above the support level.
842
01:26:32,270 --> 01:26:33,970
Here's your confirmation number one.
843
01:26:34,510 --> 01:26:39,390
Your confirmation number two is going to
be in the testing action because if we
844
01:26:39,390 --> 01:26:44,550
have some increase of the supply, we
need to find a place where supply goes
845
01:26:44,550 --> 01:26:49,890
or supply, let's say, stays the same,
maybe even increases, but the result is
846
01:26:49,890 --> 01:26:50,890
low.
847
01:27:00,840 --> 01:27:07,300
of this screen plus test formation would
tell us that
848
01:27:07,300 --> 01:27:12,560
supply has been observed to the point
where the price could move up or
849
01:27:12,560 --> 01:27:17,680
to us that demand is present and it's
capable of you know to push the price in
850
01:27:17,680 --> 01:27:22,440
such way that the breakout will happen
so here's our confirmation number three
851
01:27:22,440 --> 01:27:28,380
then we want the confirmation as a sign
of strength bar happens um that
852
01:27:28,380 --> 01:27:34,950
basically tells us that now the price
could move through the trading range
853
01:27:34,950 --> 01:27:41,530
the spring and sustain those gains
number four number five
854
01:27:41,530 --> 01:27:47,230
confirmation of the breakout multiple
attempts to break out before
855
01:27:47,230 --> 01:27:53,430
concluded and failure could we break out
in such way
856
01:27:53,430 --> 01:27:56,530
that would tell us that um indeed
857
01:28:09,480 --> 01:28:15,360
ability of the price to continue to move
to the upside after the breakout this
858
01:28:15,360 --> 01:28:20,920
is very important for the definition of
the sign of strength because it shows
859
01:28:20,920 --> 01:28:27,540
that there is buying beyond the levels
of the resistance where supply has come
860
01:28:27,540 --> 01:28:33,820
before and put the price down
confirmation number seven is the backing
861
01:28:33,820 --> 01:28:37,480
itself we are back into the support and
when
862
01:28:41,230 --> 01:28:48,150
or we are breaking it and the price does
not go down to the trading range a
863
01:28:48,150 --> 01:28:49,150
lot.
864
01:28:50,210 --> 01:28:55,550
So that's our confirmation number seven.
And confirmation number eight, final
865
01:28:55,550 --> 01:29:01,510
confirmation, is the breakout of the
backing up action, which suggests the
866
01:29:01,510 --> 01:29:03,450
resumption and continuation of the
uptrend.
867
01:29:03,970 --> 01:29:06,790
So I want you to think in those terms.
868
01:29:08,110 --> 01:29:14,950
like a story develops as kind of price
shows in volume price and volume shows
869
01:29:14,950 --> 01:29:20,630
uh their action interaction between each
other and you constantly want to go
870
01:29:20,630 --> 01:29:24,550
through the structure and you want to
say okay well now what's going to happen
871
01:29:24,550 --> 01:29:31,450
after the sprint tell do we see it is it
a confirmatory test
872
01:29:31,450 --> 01:29:37,650
yeah so what's the next uh part we need
to locally break out out of that
873
01:29:38,030 --> 01:29:41,590
Did we do that? Yes. That acts as a
confirmation.
874
01:29:42,630 --> 01:29:47,890
Now the price needs to travel up and
travel with a specific character.
875
01:29:48,270 --> 01:29:52,070
Expansion of the spread, expansion of
the volume, expansion of the demand,
876
01:29:52,310 --> 01:29:54,450
presence of institutions on the way up.
877
01:29:54,690 --> 01:29:56,530
Do we have that? Yes.
878
01:29:57,230 --> 01:30:02,250
Next one, the break above the whole
formation where previously we had that
879
01:30:02,250 --> 01:30:04,990
supply emergence and so on and so forth.
880
01:30:09,740 --> 01:30:16,360
like this you see uh through those
confirmations
881
01:30:16,360 --> 01:30:21,100
that the uptrend is intact and you have
more confidence you know to act on the
882
01:30:21,100 --> 01:30:26,820
positions uh and obviously just using
those entry points that i've specified
883
01:30:26,820 --> 01:30:32,500
before okay uh what's the next point
here um
884
01:30:32,500 --> 01:30:36,940
this i'm probably gonna skip so you guys
885
01:30:51,120 --> 01:30:56,540
go to the slides and then go to the book
uh what kind of uh
886
01:30:56,540 --> 01:31:03,340
you know lows could we have as free i
mean there are two
887
01:31:03,340 --> 01:31:09,980
structures that we're seeing here this
is a slightly higher low so to me this
888
01:31:09,980 --> 01:31:15,500
acts as a potential screen that fails
and doesn't have a lot of volume
889
01:31:21,520 --> 01:31:26,760
So we see an exhaustion of the supply
throughout this whole picture. In this
890
01:31:26,760 --> 01:31:28,340
picture, we're seeing lower lows.
891
01:31:29,080 --> 01:31:33,300
So COVID reaction should remind you of
this type of structure.
892
01:31:34,240 --> 01:31:40,420
Then, you know, at the end, obviously,
2008, 2009 low also had the same type of
893
01:31:40,420 --> 01:31:43,920
lower low structures. And we have quite
a few of those just generally.
894
01:31:44,440 --> 01:31:48,960
So what does it tell us? It tells us
that still there is some selling. And
895
01:31:48,960 --> 01:31:50,460
usually that comes, you know,
896
01:31:56,110 --> 01:32:00,890
that's still bearish and at the end of
such a big big move to the downside
897
01:32:00,890 --> 01:32:07,090
usually the sellers raise the cash um
and you know anything becomes social
898
01:32:07,090 --> 01:32:11,110
funding if you go to the corporate 19
low you're going to see that everything
899
01:32:11,110 --> 01:32:17,550
was sold right so bitcoin was sold gold
was sold bonds were sold
900
01:32:17,550 --> 01:32:24,350
market was stocks were sold commodities
were sold why
901
01:32:24,350 --> 01:32:28,140
everything was sold at the same time
because they needed cash.
902
01:32:28,660 --> 01:32:34,420
Cash was the king at that moment of
time. There is a moment like that in
903
01:32:34,420 --> 01:32:38,340
well. If you're going to go to the
history, you know, into that
904
01:32:38,340 --> 01:32:43,540
2008, you're going to see selling of
gold, selling of the stock, selling of
905
01:32:43,540 --> 01:32:45,100
commodities, and so on and so forth.
906
01:32:46,260 --> 01:32:51,520
Institutions just need money. They need
cash. They want, at that point,
907
01:32:51,680 --> 01:32:53,220
preferable, you know,
908
01:33:03,370 --> 01:33:10,010
keep this so again just go through this
yourself
909
01:33:10,010 --> 01:33:15,350
because we have quite a few slides here
some of the important quotes you know
910
01:33:15,350 --> 01:33:21,690
from david this is probably the one that
you guys remember for sure you can make
911
01:33:21,690 --> 01:33:26,930
a living by trading sprints of thrust i
mean david most definitely coined this
912
01:33:26,930 --> 01:33:33,830
phrase and you could be thinking about
this we were just doing the access in
913
01:33:33,830 --> 01:33:40,670
the practicum course where within the
construct of let's say
914
01:33:40,670 --> 01:33:45,750
an uptrend which starts with the spring
and usually we would be thinking yeah if
915
01:33:45,750 --> 01:33:52,550
I would just you know by the spring and
then stay with with the whole
916
01:34:14,760 --> 01:34:16,720
Obviously, just smaller springs.
917
01:34:19,160 --> 01:34:25,000
But also you could have, let's say, a
spring over a specific bar. Let's say
918
01:34:25,000 --> 01:34:30,000
bar commits to the upside, and then we
have some kind of reaction.
919
01:34:30,340 --> 01:34:33,400
And that reaction undercuts that bar.
920
01:34:33,680 --> 01:34:36,660
And it's going to act locally as a
spring.
921
01:34:36,960 --> 01:34:41,740
And to me, that's what this statement is
about. It's not about those big
922
01:34:41,740 --> 01:34:43,120
structural springs.
923
01:34:44,520 --> 01:34:50,660
obviously that's you know how it was
meant i think that you know
924
01:34:50,660 --> 01:34:57,400
david had a lot of understanding what
kind of springs potentially
925
01:34:57,400 --> 01:35:04,280
we could see this spring basically is
just a temporary
926
01:35:04,280 --> 01:35:10,920
commitment below the levels of buying
and then a subsequent recovery so if we
927
01:35:10,920 --> 01:35:17,190
have a bar that commits to the upside
then we have let's say multiple bars
928
01:35:17,190 --> 01:35:22,890
and one of them goes down and then
quickly recovers it's acting as a spring
929
01:35:22,890 --> 01:35:29,810
itself you know that spring could come
almost immediately or
930
01:35:29,810 --> 01:35:36,730
just later on but within the context of
an
931
01:35:36,730 --> 01:35:39,330
upgrade you could find
932
01:35:49,930 --> 01:35:52,670
David called those sprints on the move
really good.
933
01:35:53,130 --> 01:35:54,130
Okay.
934
01:35:55,990 --> 01:36:02,950
There is definitely a higher percentage
of success for those sprints being in
935
01:36:02,950 --> 01:36:07,670
the uptrend, right? Because uptrend is
going to be sustainable for quite some
936
01:36:07,670 --> 01:36:12,370
time. And sprints are going to happen
there because somebody is taking
937
01:36:12,850 --> 01:36:17,690
demand deteriorates, and the price
reacts down under its own weight, and
938
01:36:17,690 --> 01:36:18,690
supply comes in.
939
01:36:19,280 --> 01:36:23,200
So you're going to have some movements
to the downside, but they're never going
940
01:36:23,200 --> 01:36:27,780
to produce a meaningful change of
behavior until the final climactic
941
01:36:28,020 --> 01:36:34,180
So therefore, you know, whenever we have
a spring as a short -term oversalt
942
01:36:34,180 --> 01:36:39,000
condition where we see some kind of
weakness, our expectation is that it's
943
01:36:39,000 --> 01:36:44,980
to recover. Based on that expectation
and on our observations, we could enter
944
01:36:44,980 --> 01:36:50,120
that spot, and obviously that would be a
very low -risk high. probability trade
945
01:36:50,120 --> 01:36:57,100
okay so what else as i mentioned
946
01:36:57,100 --> 01:37:03,880
you know this spring idea is that we
don't have a follow
947
01:37:03,880 --> 01:37:09,540
-through to the downside so to me this
is always the question a sign of
948
01:37:09,540 --> 01:37:15,660
or a spring a sign of weakness or a
shakeout so therefore
949
01:37:15,660 --> 01:37:20,810
when you see those situations, whether
this is a sign of strength or upthrust,
950
01:37:20,890 --> 01:37:26,310
or a sign of weakness in a spring,
always think about the follow -through
951
01:37:26,310 --> 01:37:29,530
direction of, let's say, an upthrust or
a spring.
952
01:37:31,430 --> 01:37:35,630
Do we have a follow -through to the
downside? If we do, maybe this is not a
953
01:37:35,630 --> 01:37:37,910
spring. Maybe this is a sign of
weakness.
954
01:37:39,690 --> 01:37:42,110
Okay, and then this is also important.
955
01:37:42,350 --> 01:37:46,570
In the downtrend, I would just say this.
956
01:37:49,450 --> 01:37:56,190
don't even try to find a spring i mean
find the spring after you establish that
957
01:37:56,190 --> 01:38:03,190
there is a sequence of capitulation
selling climax some kind of trading
958
01:38:03,190 --> 01:38:10,070
range and then you have a spring those
type of springs are you know have higher
959
01:38:10,070 --> 01:38:14,470
probability of the reversal rather than
the springs within the context of the
960
01:38:14,470 --> 01:38:16,670
downtrend where you might have
961
01:38:18,570 --> 01:38:25,210
say a bar to the downsides like this and
then
962
01:38:25,210 --> 01:38:31,170
some kind of trading range and then
within the trading range a smaller
963
01:38:31,170 --> 01:38:37,490
that you have as spring but then it goes
into an up thrust of this bar
964
01:38:49,840 --> 01:38:52,580
accumulation where you could see the
science
965
01:38:52,580 --> 01:38:59,080
of
966
01:38:59,080 --> 01:39:02,400
accumulation and it could be just a
local
967
01:39:31,240 --> 01:39:37,680
So spring number two is always going to
be entered on the test, right? Why?
968
01:39:37,820 --> 01:39:41,620
Because spring number two is going to
have an increase of the supply, whereas
969
01:39:41,620 --> 01:39:44,220
spring number three has a decrease of
the supply.
970
01:39:44,680 --> 01:39:50,780
So that increase of the supply, as you
guys know from WTC1, always needs
971
01:39:50,780 --> 01:39:55,900
testing. Testing always needs to come
structurally at the high or low and also
972
01:39:55,900 --> 01:39:57,720
at the diminished supply signature.
973
01:39:58,460 --> 01:40:00,620
But we could have these two types.
974
01:40:01,290 --> 01:40:04,890
right so for instance supply has
increased here so we want to see the
975
01:40:04,890 --> 01:40:11,410
either right away tab right here which
is on the lower volume signature or
976
01:40:11,410 --> 01:40:17,970
somewhere here which is absolutely
diminishes that signature when we do not
977
01:40:17,970 --> 01:40:23,490
you know a very high supply and i would
say that this is still a relatively you
978
01:40:23,490 --> 01:40:26,830
know average high supply i would be
thinking like something like this
979
01:40:29,840 --> 01:40:34,940
the supply characteristics we might have
a much more aggressive action to the
980
01:40:34,940 --> 01:40:41,880
upside right away so just some character
and here are some of those
981
01:40:41,880 --> 01:40:47,860
springs you know that we've talked about
um you know on the way up you might be
982
01:40:47,860 --> 01:40:54,560
thinking okay um this is acting as a
sprint after a sign of strength
983
01:40:54,560 --> 01:40:59,160
in the backing up formation it is a
spring relative to this box
984
01:41:03,310 --> 01:41:08,950
the trading range but there's a
significant bar it's a breakout bar you
985
01:41:08,950 --> 01:41:15,330
have let's say a spring like in this
area right here here's a local spring to
986
01:41:15,330 --> 01:41:21,190
this smaller trading range or to those
bars obviously much larger springs like
987
01:41:21,190 --> 01:41:27,910
this here's another spring here's
another very very small spring right
988
01:41:27,910 --> 01:41:31,650
you could go through the whole chart and
you could find so many of those
989
01:41:33,320 --> 01:41:39,020
right here um obviously this is just a
very large structural structural spring
990
01:41:39,020 --> 01:41:46,000
um so you could see one two um not
necessarily here but relative let's say
991
01:41:46,000 --> 01:41:52,880
this low this is a spring two three four
five six seven eight eight springs
992
01:41:52,880 --> 01:41:59,660
on the way up that i just quickly
identified and there are some more so
993
01:41:59,660 --> 01:42:00,660
context
994
01:42:40,330 --> 01:42:45,770
here that, you know, I would remember
from this slide.
995
01:42:46,550 --> 01:42:48,990
Okay, how do you buy those springs?
996
01:42:49,270 --> 01:42:50,650
Limit order?
997
01:42:51,430 --> 01:42:53,530
Yeah, you could definitely do that.
998
01:42:53,950 --> 01:42:56,150
You don't have to buy the spring itself.
999
01:42:57,610 --> 01:43:01,910
You know, you could buy confirmatory
signals which come after the spring.
1000
01:43:02,330 --> 01:43:07,990
And you don't have to buy the close of,
let's say, a big confirmatory ball like
1001
01:43:07,990 --> 01:43:09,170
this. You could just...
1002
01:43:10,830 --> 01:43:14,790
here at the local level, and then get in
on this bar after the spring
1003
01:43:14,790 --> 01:43:20,090
materializes. But you could definitely
also do the limit orders as well.
1004
01:43:20,750 --> 01:43:27,650
I am personally working a lot right now
in my trading on
1005
01:43:27,650 --> 01:43:33,050
the entries on the reactions that do
have specific characteristics within the
1006
01:43:33,050 --> 01:43:34,470
context, let's say, of the uptrend.
1007
01:43:39,530 --> 01:43:43,810
i definitely would compare at those
spots but also you could just buy the
1008
01:43:43,810 --> 01:43:49,490
right so if you see the spring buy it
you know put the stop loss below uh and
1009
01:43:49,490 --> 01:43:55,190
you are correct on the context if you're
correct on the definition of the spring
1010
01:43:55,190 --> 01:44:01,570
then you should be okay um and obviously
sometimes it's gonna fail okay
1011
01:44:01,570 --> 01:44:08,330
um do you give much value to the
intraday spring as to the to a daily
1012
01:44:09,520 --> 01:44:16,280
from david so um i think it depends just
on the trade that you know you're
1013
01:44:16,280 --> 01:44:23,200
entering let's say if i'm entering a
campaign trade which
1014
01:44:23,200 --> 01:44:29,960
i'm gonna hold on to for over a year
then i'm definitely
1015
01:44:29,960 --> 01:44:35,200
gonna be looking more at the daily and
weekly charts rather than intraday
1016
01:44:37,930 --> 01:44:43,570
intraday entry there if i'm very sure
that this is the low but to me i would
1017
01:44:43,570 --> 01:44:50,010
prefer on the daily just to seek that
confirmation uh because if this is a
1018
01:44:50,010 --> 01:44:55,450
campaign trade then the causality is
huge and the effect is going to be so
1019
01:44:55,450 --> 01:45:00,050
pronounced that you know intraday
movement would not make a big difference
1020
01:45:00,050 --> 01:45:05,150
know at the end of the trade but if i'm
let's say doing a swing trade then for
1021
01:45:05,150 --> 01:45:06,710
sure i would go into the
1022
01:45:07,950 --> 01:45:13,030
price action and i would take the entry
there and obviously if i'm intraday
1023
01:45:13,030 --> 01:45:18,370
trading that you know i would be looking
for sprints on that level do you
1024
01:45:18,370 --> 01:45:24,990
recommend using the buy stops i use buy
stops a lot again because
1025
01:45:24,990 --> 01:45:31,690
they usually put at the points of
confirmations
1026
01:45:31,690 --> 01:45:37,010
then you know that allows me
1027
01:45:45,719 --> 01:45:52,700
ratio in my favor and kind of gives you
a little bit
1028
01:45:52,700 --> 01:45:59,600
more confidence but again I think that
you should have the strategies for
1029
01:45:59,600 --> 01:46:06,540
the entries that are both you know stop
by Lehman buys market orders and you
1030
01:46:06,540 --> 01:46:13,480
should understand which order you would
use whatever scenario okay let's go
1031
01:46:13,480 --> 01:46:14,480
to the next chapter
1032
01:46:23,690 --> 01:46:30,630
i want it so let's go through this
really fast so what is
1033
01:46:30,630 --> 01:46:35,170
an upfront that's when the price moves
above the line of the resistance and
1034
01:46:35,170 --> 01:46:41,590
fails to follow through such as a failed
breakout could be another name for the
1035
01:46:41,590 --> 01:46:46,770
up thrust so something like this we're
committing to the upside and then we are
1036
01:46:46,770 --> 01:46:51,030
going down so my definition of an up
thrust is
1037
01:46:52,430 --> 01:46:57,550
temporary commitment above an almost
immediate failure back into the trading
1038
01:46:57,550 --> 01:47:04,190
range or below the resistance upthrust
at
1039
01:47:04,190 --> 01:47:09,390
spring could be of different character
they could look differently right so we
1040
01:47:09,390 --> 01:47:14,410
could have an upthrust like this this is
what we were discussing in the market
1041
01:47:14,410 --> 01:47:19,130
outlook at the beginning of the session
right so usually i would call this an
1042
01:47:19,130 --> 01:47:21,490
upthrust pro so the price
1043
01:47:26,600 --> 01:47:32,600
the up thrust where we have a commitment
up and then it fails we could have an
1044
01:47:32,600 --> 01:47:39,160
up thrust where we might have actually
you know quite um you know a few bars
1045
01:47:39,160 --> 01:47:44,580
so in the key here is to understand how
many progressive closes to the upside we
1046
01:47:44,580 --> 01:47:48,180
have i usually do not like to see an
upthrust
1047
01:47:51,210 --> 01:47:53,610
closes up that are progressing to the
upside.
1048
01:47:53,890 --> 01:47:56,250
That usually tells me that this is a
sign of strength.
1049
01:47:57,370 --> 01:48:03,690
But whenever we have somewhat of a quick
move up, quick commitment, and then
1050
01:48:03,690 --> 01:48:06,410
almost immediate failure, that would be
a threat.
1051
01:48:08,350 --> 01:48:12,570
I like this analogy with the rocket just
going this way.
1052
01:48:12,970 --> 01:48:18,730
So there is a lot of that type of action
where the rocket is
1053
01:48:22,790 --> 01:48:28,930
deteriorates momentum deteriorates and
then the price falls and then the speed
1054
01:48:28,930 --> 01:48:35,510
increases velocity increases on the way
down so it makes a lot of sense to me um
1055
01:48:35,510 --> 01:48:42,070
okay upfront could have some retests
right so
1056
01:48:42,070 --> 01:48:43,630
let's just say that
1057
01:48:54,030 --> 01:48:59,630
have a complex structure as well so
those are more advanced complex you know
1058
01:48:59,630 --> 01:49:03,430
discussions that we would have so today
i'm not going to go in there
1059
01:49:03,430 --> 01:49:09,970
okay
1060
01:49:09,970 --> 01:49:13,570
let's okay
1061
01:49:13,570 --> 01:49:20,190
so this is an interesting
1062
01:49:20,190 --> 01:49:23,050
point full upthrust um so
1063
01:49:23,980 --> 01:49:30,060
of talking about the same thing which is
using different semantics right so a
1064
01:49:30,060 --> 01:49:35,360
failed up thrust is an element of
absorption and we saw that from the
1065
01:49:35,360 --> 01:49:40,360
outlook right that bar where supply has
come in we're calling it an up thrust
1066
01:49:40,360 --> 01:49:47,220
pro then test test and continuation to
the upside so this is
1067
01:49:47,220 --> 01:49:54,200
an ability to drop not just back into
the trading range but you know drop
1068
01:49:54,200 --> 01:49:56,120
down to the level of the support.
1069
01:49:58,340 --> 01:50:03,820
And after testing, the price actually
goes up. So the up thrust failed. And
1070
01:50:03,820 --> 01:50:05,660
is a failed up thrust?
1071
01:50:24,040 --> 01:50:28,520
you could have up thrusts that are going
to have increase in the volume
1072
01:50:28,520 --> 01:50:34,840
signature for sure you could have up
thrusts that are gonna come as a
1073
01:50:34,840 --> 01:50:39,300
deterioration of the demand we could
feel how the volume signature diminishes
1074
01:50:39,300 --> 01:50:44,740
here and demand diminishes and yet you
know we're trying to commit uh to the
1075
01:50:44,740 --> 01:50:50,940
upside usually the next bar to the
downside this is where the emergence of
1076
01:50:50,940 --> 01:50:51,940
volume is going to be
1077
01:50:52,650 --> 01:50:57,570
the emergence of the supply we could
have up thrust that are going to have
1078
01:50:57,570 --> 01:51:03,130
already high volume signatures and
usually those are going to be up thrust
1079
01:51:03,130 --> 01:51:09,270
we see that the ceo is selling into the
strength of weak hands and that selling
1080
01:51:09,270 --> 01:51:11,570
actually started to occur here first
1081
01:51:21,040 --> 01:51:26,020
So in this type of situation, we want to
measure that strength of selling by
1082
01:51:26,020 --> 01:51:28,540
shortening of the thrust. That's going
to be very important.
1083
01:51:29,420 --> 01:51:35,980
Or we want to measure the selling of the
demand, in the second case here,
1084
01:51:36,080 --> 01:51:39,220
also by the deterioration of the demand.
1085
01:51:46,060 --> 01:51:48,640
The different ways of how...
1086
01:51:50,440 --> 01:51:57,420
unfold i think that you know to me here
what's really important is this bar
1087
01:51:57,420 --> 01:52:03,640
right here it kind of shows what's going
on where
1088
01:52:03,640 --> 01:52:10,600
the volume signature increases i think
is
1089
01:52:10,600 --> 01:52:17,560
this the bar yes i think so yeah
1090
01:52:17,560 --> 01:52:24,410
so the volume signature increases uh why
because we're breaking out and
1091
01:52:24,410 --> 01:52:30,950
we've seen that supplies coming in so
short sell is seen as almost like a mean
1092
01:52:30,950 --> 01:52:36,590
reversion it's above the resistance so
every time the price comes to this level
1093
01:52:36,590 --> 01:52:42,170
goes down comes to this level goes down
so they're going to short into this
1094
01:52:42,170 --> 01:52:48,230
abnormality by the price we could see
the tail here right away and then after
1095
01:52:48,230 --> 01:52:49,230
that selling
1096
01:52:50,030 --> 01:52:55,130
look at what volume is doing. We really
don't have a lot of follow through to
1097
01:52:55,130 --> 01:52:56,450
the upside after that.
1098
01:52:57,490 --> 01:53:04,430
And the change of behavior bar did not
require a lot of volume signature, which
1099
01:53:04,430 --> 01:53:06,970
also tells us that demand is exhausted.
1100
01:53:07,270 --> 01:53:13,230
And demand was exhausted just pushing
the price out when supply came and
1101
01:53:13,230 --> 01:53:16,690
consumed all of that demand. After that,
demand is weak.
1102
01:53:18,600 --> 01:53:25,260
it doesn't require a lot of supply to
produce an ease of movement so
1103
01:53:25,260 --> 01:53:30,440
kind of like an ease of movement after
the up thrust and then supply occurs
1104
01:53:47,980 --> 01:53:49,240
context of the downtrend.
1105
01:53:49,600 --> 01:53:55,960
And we could also mention that you are
going to have quite a few upthrust in
1106
01:53:55,960 --> 01:53:59,640
uptrend. It's just that they are not
going to be as significant.
1107
01:54:00,600 --> 01:54:07,220
They're going to in a way fail as spring
failed in the
1108
01:54:07,220 --> 01:54:14,060
downtrend. So you are going to have
instances where upthrust action takes
1109
01:54:14,060 --> 01:54:17,180
place in smaller consolidations.
1110
01:54:18,480 --> 01:54:22,240
And then they are not going to produce
significant moves down. They're just
1111
01:54:22,240 --> 01:54:28,060
going to produce temporary supply
conditions that are going to push the
1112
01:54:28,060 --> 01:54:34,860
down potentially into a spring
situation. Look at this spring. Look at
1113
01:54:34,860 --> 01:54:36,940
spring. Look at this spring.
1114
01:54:37,460 --> 01:54:38,480
This spring.
1115
01:54:39,320 --> 01:54:40,320
This spring.
1116
01:54:40,560 --> 01:54:43,440
And then the price is going to recover
in the uptrend.
1117
01:54:43,640 --> 01:54:45,120
In the downtrend...
1118
01:54:58,800 --> 01:55:04,140
And this is just should be, you know,
that idea that you could make a living
1119
01:55:04,140 --> 01:55:10,040
trading strength and upthrust. This
should be a convincing strategy for you
1120
01:55:10,040 --> 01:55:16,900
create your trading around those
temporary commitments above
1121
01:55:16,900 --> 01:55:22,460
or below support and resistance levels
in the context of the of the trend.
1122
01:55:23,700 --> 01:55:25,860
Obviously, you know, this was the 2000.
1123
01:55:26,440 --> 01:55:30,940
7 big reversal as an upthrust.
1124
01:55:31,600 --> 01:55:36,000
But then on the way down, and this is
the weekly chart, look into this area
1125
01:55:36,000 --> 01:55:37,000
right here.
1126
01:55:37,460 --> 01:55:41,760
Here is your local spring behind this
bar.
1127
01:55:41,980 --> 01:55:48,160
This is a breakout bar. This is one of
the most important bars in this
1128
01:55:48,160 --> 01:55:49,240
distributional structure.
1129
01:55:49,580 --> 01:55:55,060
And then we have a small upthrust that
works out beautifully.
1130
01:55:57,360 --> 01:56:03,660
Extension of the move after that in the
downtrend environment is definitely akin
1131
01:56:03,660 --> 01:56:10,260
to these local sprints that come in the
uptrend. So hopefully that is
1132
01:56:10,260 --> 01:56:16,380
sufficient view for you to
1133
01:56:16,380 --> 01:56:23,100
actually follow that idea of trading the
sprints in the
1134
01:56:23,100 --> 01:56:27,020
uptrend and trading the uptrend in the
downtrend.
1135
01:56:57,100 --> 01:57:01,680
and this was on absorption so absorption
let's see how david describes
1136
01:57:01,680 --> 01:57:06,640
absorption process through which long
liquidation profit taken or new short
1137
01:57:06,640 --> 01:57:13,140
selling overcome and absorption could
happen
1138
01:57:13,140 --> 01:57:19,440
at different levels and
1139
01:57:19,440 --> 01:57:24,560
absorption is not only happening and
this is kind of like a big mistake that
1140
01:57:24,560 --> 01:57:25,560
see
1141
01:57:26,480 --> 01:57:31,940
absorption is not just an element of the
accumulation or reaccumulation trading
1142
01:57:31,940 --> 01:57:37,600
range absorption could happen in the
uptrend as well so for instance we could
1143
01:57:37,600 --> 01:57:43,120
have as i mentioned absorption at the
lower level in the accumulation range
1144
01:57:43,120 --> 01:57:49,080
absorption at the higher level in the
accumulation range then let's say
1145
01:57:49,080 --> 01:57:54,740
absorption on the way up as we are
breaking out absorption
1146
01:57:59,240 --> 01:58:05,080
let's say on the way up absorption in
the reaccumulation let's say in phase a
1147
01:58:05,080 --> 01:58:10,880
and then in phase c and then
continuation so there are quite a few
1148
01:58:10,880 --> 01:58:17,860
absorption can take place it's not just
a function
1149
01:58:17,860 --> 01:58:24,660
of the accumulation of reaccumulation
range whenever supply occurs in the
1150
01:58:24,660 --> 01:58:29,200
uptrend it would have to be observed let
me just give you even this thought
1151
01:58:29,200 --> 01:58:35,460
there is a temporary absorption in the
downtrends so for instance
1152
01:58:35,460 --> 01:58:42,020
if we go down and then we have some kind
of intermediate selling climax it's a
1153
01:58:42,020 --> 01:58:45,600
temporary absorption that we are seeing
1154
01:58:45,600 --> 01:58:52,600
where for some hand this is the point of
1155
01:58:52,600 --> 01:58:55,480
value and they are coming in and they
are buying
1156
01:58:57,520 --> 01:59:02,620
price from more and further down and uh
goes into the change of behavior change
1157
01:59:02,620 --> 01:59:06,060
of character and then we go into the
trading range and then continue to the
1158
01:59:06,060 --> 01:59:11,540
downside but at this point right here
there was that temporary absorption so
1159
01:59:11,540 --> 01:59:17,680
there are quite a few um you know ways
of how we could see
1160
01:59:17,680 --> 01:59:24,460
absorption on the chart okay so this i'm
gonna well actually
1161
01:59:24,460 --> 01:59:25,460
this is important
1162
01:59:27,630 --> 01:59:30,950
These are clues pointing to the
successful absorption.
1163
01:59:32,590 --> 01:59:35,190
So rising support, very important.
1164
01:59:35,750 --> 01:59:42,510
We should see that as the supply comes
in. We could see the initial reaction of
1165
01:59:42,510 --> 01:59:49,450
the price, but then we should see rising
prices and that raise support
1166
01:59:49,450 --> 01:59:50,209
as well.
1167
01:59:50,210 --> 01:59:56,210
Volume increases at the top of the
absorption area, at the top of the
1168
01:59:56,210 --> 02:00:02,960
absorption. area so let's say supply
comes in and we
1169
02:00:02,960 --> 02:00:09,940
have some kind of absorption we want to
understand that the there is
1170
02:00:09,940 --> 02:00:14,080
and I wouldn't say that you know
specifically at the top I would just say
1171
02:00:14,080 --> 02:00:20,880
the volume increase in general is going
to indicate that supply was present
1172
02:00:20,880 --> 02:00:22,300
and that demand
1173
02:00:23,370 --> 02:00:27,510
and absorb that supply and then demand
come in a little bit more and push the
1174
02:00:27,510 --> 02:00:34,070
price up so just in general the volume
signature is going to increase but i
1175
02:00:34,070 --> 02:00:37,770
wouldn't say that specifically it's
going to be at the top of the absorption
1176
02:00:37,770 --> 02:00:41,010
at the bottom because you know
absorption obviously could happen also
1177
02:00:41,010 --> 02:00:47,810
bottom lack of downward follow -through
after threatening a price bar
1178
02:00:47,810 --> 02:00:54,230
and this is very common so for instance
we could be thinking about support and
1179
02:00:54,230 --> 02:01:01,010
just a big bar to the downside where
there is a lot of volume where there is
1180
02:01:01,010 --> 02:01:07,850
lot of supply but would we why did we
stop here at the support well
1181
02:01:07,850 --> 02:01:14,790
the opposite force was present and it
stepped in
1182
02:01:14,790 --> 02:01:19,570
demand stepped in and absorbed the
supply to the point where the stopping
1183
02:01:19,570 --> 02:01:24,290
has occurred and then from here
obviously we don't want to see a follow
1184
02:01:24,290 --> 02:01:28,990
-through. Or if there is a follow
-through, in some cases, we want to see
1185
02:01:28,990 --> 02:01:34,590
negligent, you know, bearish texture
where maybe the spread diminishes and
1186
02:01:34,590 --> 02:01:37,270
suggests that we're going to have some
kind of rally.
1187
02:01:39,450 --> 02:01:43,830
Okay, at the right -hand side of the
absorption area, price tends to press
1188
02:01:43,830 --> 02:01:46,210
against the resistance line without
giving ground.
1189
02:01:46,830 --> 02:01:50,430
So this is a feather type of situation.
1190
02:01:51,040 --> 02:01:55,540
let's say supply increases on the way
down but then absorption happens on the
1191
02:01:55,540 --> 02:02:02,400
way uh down where demand increases and
then incrementally supply still comes in
1192
02:02:02,400 --> 02:02:08,740
still comes in still comes in but it's
less than what we've seen before and
1193
02:02:08,740 --> 02:02:15,700
absorption happens of that supply and
demand just pushes the price up
1194
02:02:21,759 --> 02:02:28,520
feather a feather action and then as it
comes to the resistance
1195
02:02:28,520 --> 02:02:35,320
it comes to the point where first supply
has been absorbed significantly already
1196
02:02:35,320 --> 02:02:40,680
and then we are at the structural point
where we need to have a breakout so this
1197
02:02:40,680 --> 02:02:43,680
breakout usually happens with a lot of
momentum
1198
02:03:01,420 --> 02:03:07,140
phase is resolved by a spring and to me
the spring action
1199
02:03:07,140 --> 02:03:14,120
is just basically an idea that whatever
latest supply
1200
02:03:14,120 --> 02:03:19,240
at the support level so let's just talk
about the absorption at the support
1201
02:03:19,240 --> 02:03:20,240
level
1202
02:03:35,310 --> 02:03:42,170
itself so this is going to be uh initial
opening of the position by the
1203
02:03:42,170 --> 02:03:46,910
big interest so therefore there's a lot
of demand at that point that stops the
1204
02:03:46,910 --> 02:03:53,210
price from moving further down and then
they could also buy on the way up but
1205
02:03:53,210 --> 02:03:56,850
not necessarily through the whole rally
maybe into the middle of the trading
1206
02:03:56,850 --> 02:04:02,450
range and then they're going to stop
that buying is going to produce some
1207
02:04:02,450 --> 02:04:03,490
of follow -through momentum
1208
02:04:04,300 --> 02:04:08,600
into the high of the automatic rally and
then the price is going to fall as it
1209
02:04:08,600 --> 02:04:15,120
falls we could see some absorption at
the lower levels of the support and then
1210
02:04:15,120 --> 02:04:21,760
again imagine that for the price to move
up we need to observe let's say
1211
02:04:21,760 --> 02:04:28,360
100 units of supply that's what we need
to do
1212
02:04:28,360 --> 02:04:33,650
that's what needs to be done at the
level of the support and let's say into
1213
02:04:33,650 --> 02:04:40,450
phase b we are maybe like at 75 units
that are in strong hands right
1214
02:04:40,450 --> 02:04:46,250
now so the remaining 25 units of the
supply does not allow the price to leave
1215
02:04:46,250 --> 02:04:52,890
the trading just because it's it's there
it's available and as the price starts
1216
02:04:52,890 --> 02:04:59,290
to go down into phase c we might see
that emergence of that remaining
1217
02:05:05,390 --> 02:05:11,410
my students that that last supply that
emerges
1218
02:05:11,410 --> 02:05:18,330
once it's observed it shows the timing
of when the price is going to leave the
1219
02:05:18,330 --> 02:05:24,570
trading range and that last supply could
be at the level of the support
1220
02:05:24,570 --> 02:05:31,550
and also at the level of the resistance
once both are done once the
1221
02:05:31,550 --> 02:05:36,260
latest supply at the level of the
support and supply at the level of the
1222
02:05:36,260 --> 02:05:42,500
resistance are observed then we go into
the uptrend and that process kind of
1223
02:05:42,500 --> 02:05:49,340
repeats over and over again um okay uh
clues
1224
02:05:49,340 --> 02:05:55,720
of the absorption of the bind you guys
maybe could do this by yourself but
1225
02:05:55,720 --> 02:06:01,400
really quickly again you know just what
do we see inability of the price to
1226
02:06:01,400 --> 02:06:07,180
rally away from the danger points right
um heavy volume um
1227
02:06:07,180 --> 02:06:13,560
failed springs
1228
02:06:13,560 --> 02:06:20,420
okay great david is asking how do you
know only 25 units are left based
1229
02:06:20,420 --> 02:06:25,380
on the volume uh signature no david that
was more hypothetical you know kind of
1230
02:06:25,380 --> 02:06:32,000
example of um i don't know exactly how
much volume is left but if let's say
1231
02:06:34,410 --> 02:06:40,990
signature shows something like this I
know that
1232
02:06:40,990 --> 02:06:47,730
relative to phase a supply has
diminished right
1233
02:06:47,730 --> 02:06:54,330
but it produced that local splash where
supply has increased so this is the
1234
02:06:54,330 --> 02:07:00,650
last supply at the support level that
needs to be consumed
1235
02:07:00,650 --> 02:07:02,810
absorbed before
1236
02:07:03,690 --> 02:07:10,170
price starts to move up you know
significantly and you could find this on
1237
02:07:10,170 --> 02:07:17,030
time frame as well and even as a part of
an uptrend same for
1238
02:07:17,030 --> 02:07:23,090
the you know distributional
characteristics as well okay you guys go
1239
02:07:23,090 --> 02:07:27,730
this yourself so it's 5 10 i want to
make sure that we get to some exercises
1240
02:07:27,730 --> 02:07:33,370
this is probably one of the uh you know
best works concepts that david presented
1241
02:07:33,440 --> 02:07:34,440
to us.
1242
02:07:34,520 --> 02:07:41,440
I have something similar, and we all do,
all of the teachers of the Wyckoff
1243
02:07:41,440 --> 02:07:43,520
methodology where we discuss the
structures.
1244
02:07:43,800 --> 02:07:50,740
I think the key here to understand is if
this is the sprint, what would be a
1245
02:07:50,740 --> 02:07:56,860
confirmation, a test, and then a
continuation through the trading range?
1246
02:07:56,860 --> 02:07:59,740
would be a failure, a follow -through to
the downside?
1247
02:08:02,830 --> 02:08:09,570
resistance level what would act as the
confirmation after the breakout um an
1248
02:08:09,570 --> 02:08:15,330
ability of the price to stay above the
resistance and where resistance acts as
1249
02:08:15,330 --> 02:08:21,750
support and then recovery recovery and
resumption of the uptrend this is you
1250
02:08:21,750 --> 02:08:26,970
know this is going to be important so
and i would definitely just study this a
1251
02:08:26,970 --> 02:08:27,970
little bit to understand
1252
02:09:05,290 --> 02:09:09,730
of shows that you know we've talked a
lot about absorption at the support
1253
02:09:09,730 --> 02:09:15,550
right so whereas that absorption happens
already in this area we're seeing some
1254
02:09:15,550 --> 02:09:21,310
absorption this bar right here x is an
absorption we see some buying on these
1255
02:09:21,310 --> 02:09:28,230
two bars then we're seeing some buying
here then we're seeing buying on this
1256
02:09:28,230 --> 02:09:29,230
right here
1257
02:09:51,950 --> 02:09:58,710
port level and then as we go into phase
c we have this lost supply
1258
02:09:58,710 --> 02:10:05,430
that is being observed and then from
here because of this
1259
02:10:05,430 --> 02:10:11,330
action the price actually starts going
up in a different way but this volume
1260
02:10:11,330 --> 02:10:17,090
spike suggests emergence of the supply
so what do we do here well we have to
1261
02:10:17,090 --> 02:10:20,410
have some kind of test and the test
initial test
1262
02:10:21,420 --> 02:10:28,320
is not that great only a high low and
then the
1263
02:10:28,320 --> 02:10:35,040
emergence of the demand here would be
suggestive that the bias is still up
1264
02:10:35,040 --> 02:10:41,900
but because of how deeply we ran down
that's just the trading range and what i
1265
02:10:41,900 --> 02:10:47,680
like about this picture is it shows us
how absorption at the high level happens
1266
02:10:48,430 --> 02:10:51,830
absorption at the resistance level so
resistance level is defined by the
1267
02:10:51,830 --> 02:10:58,190
climactic action some supply is coming
in on this bar and we need to overcome
1268
02:10:58,190 --> 02:11:05,090
this level right here by attacking this
level multiple times
1269
02:11:05,090 --> 02:11:11,250
and trying to see whether if the demand
is going to increase sufficiently to
1270
02:11:11,250 --> 02:11:17,220
push the price higher or supply is going
to deteriorate at this level So we're
1271
02:11:17,220 --> 02:11:21,880
seeing that on this bar right here,
still some emergence of the supply that
1272
02:11:21,880 --> 02:11:22,659
we're seeing.
1273
02:11:22,660 --> 02:11:25,200
And then that takes the price down.
1274
02:11:25,540 --> 02:11:31,180
And then on the next attempt, what we're
seeing, again, supply is coming in. And
1275
02:11:31,180 --> 02:11:37,280
now supply is, you know, quite
aggressive here. And hopefully I'm
1276
02:11:37,280 --> 02:11:38,800
this correctly.
1277
02:11:39,020 --> 02:11:44,520
Okay. So here is, I think this is the
bar, okay, that is overcoming.
1278
02:11:46,480 --> 02:11:47,480
committing to the upside.
1279
02:11:47,560 --> 02:11:49,120
Look how supply is increasing.
1280
02:11:49,640 --> 02:11:54,980
And then on the next bar, we're seeing
some demand coming in.
1281
02:11:55,180 --> 02:12:00,780
So as demand comes in and the result is
more negligible, negligent,
1282
02:12:00,780 --> 02:12:07,740
we are, and the close
1283
02:12:07,740 --> 02:12:14,540
is at the level of the resistance, we
are thinking that it's different than
1284
02:12:14,540 --> 02:12:15,540
picture.
1285
02:12:16,240 --> 02:12:22,860
we didn't have as much demand on that uh
follow -through bar and that suggested
1286
02:12:22,860 --> 02:12:28,920
to be it is not only present but what is
it doing it's absorbing the supply and
1287
02:12:28,920 --> 02:12:35,680
then the next bar does not have a big
volume signature and obviously we're
1288
02:12:35,680 --> 02:12:40,860
the close here of the session and that
suggests that same power such as you
1289
02:12:40,860 --> 02:12:47,200
a continuation to the upside so we want
to see that supply emerges and then
1290
02:12:47,200 --> 02:12:53,980
through the absorption supply is kind of
going to go down and it could take
1291
02:12:53,980 --> 02:12:58,560
several spots for the supply to be
observed and therefore you're going to
1292
02:12:58,560 --> 02:12:59,560
those probes
1293
02:13:31,720 --> 02:13:36,060
let's say capitulating into this bar and
then capitulating it into this bar
1294
02:13:36,060 --> 02:13:42,240
these are the levels that would be of
utmost importance to us we're coming to
1295
02:13:42,240 --> 02:13:47,740
this level failing we're coming as an
upthrust failing again this produces a
1296
02:13:47,740 --> 02:13:53,380
small spring and then what do we do into
these two bars we can't rally and then
1297
02:13:53,380 --> 02:13:58,420
this failure should negate all of the
suggestions about the upward bias
1298
02:14:05,619 --> 02:14:12,240
the important bars like the breakdown
bars and it could look like a spring at
1299
02:14:12,240 --> 02:14:17,720
that time it could look like the demand
is coming in and it does but the key is
1300
02:14:17,720 --> 02:14:24,720
what is the result so the result is an
attempt to
1301
02:14:24,720 --> 02:14:31,500
go up and failure within the structure
of this bar right here to the downside
1302
02:14:33,680 --> 02:14:39,460
no follow through to the upside all
1303
02:14:39,460 --> 02:14:45,660
right so you guys could go through this
yourself okay
1304
02:14:45,660 --> 02:14:51,860
this one is from mcball and let's go to
this chart right away so this is the
1305
02:14:51,860 --> 02:14:58,500
chart there was a question about this
this is the pnf chart that
1306
02:14:58,500 --> 02:15:01,580
shows cumulative swings up and down
1307
02:15:02,380 --> 02:15:09,100
As you know, PNF allows us to see a much
clearer
1308
02:15:09,100 --> 02:15:15,500
picture where a lot of the price action
is being condensed into one column
1309
02:15:15,500 --> 02:15:20,620
of X's or O's. In this case, we have
numbers.
1310
02:15:21,460 --> 02:15:27,760
And what do those numbers mean? This is
just a representation of the volume
1311
02:15:27,760 --> 02:15:28,760
signature.
1312
02:15:32,080 --> 02:15:38,880
This is exactly how Wyckoff himself was
looking at the charts. So
1313
02:15:38,880 --> 02:15:45,540
he was trying to figure out the
relationship
1314
02:15:45,540 --> 02:15:47,240
between effort and the result.
1315
02:15:47,460 --> 02:15:50,880
So let's just follow the downtrend right
here.
1316
02:15:51,360 --> 02:15:52,800
What do we see?
1317
02:15:54,120 --> 02:15:57,240
We're seeing that selling kind of
deteriorates.
1318
02:16:07,310 --> 02:16:11,510
shows somewhat of the climactic action.
We don't see that before, right? So 2,
1319
02:16:11,650 --> 02:16:15,190
6, 1, 6, 12.
1320
02:16:15,570 --> 02:16:17,050
That was kind of like a big one.
1321
02:16:17,530 --> 02:16:20,970
But this shows some kind of climactic
run capitulation.
1322
02:16:21,630 --> 02:16:27,190
Then on the next move down, we're seeing
how there is some kind of
1323
02:16:27,190 --> 02:16:28,190
deterioration.
1324
02:16:41,709 --> 02:16:47,910
reversal a change of behavior as the
reaction and as we go through the test
1325
02:16:47,910 --> 02:16:54,570
here is the big number but yet we're
creating a high low so that's effort
1326
02:16:54,570 --> 02:17:00,790
result where effort increases and yet we
cannot push the price down the price
1327
02:17:00,790 --> 02:17:07,490
does not follow to the downside other
attempt to go down
1328
02:17:07,490 --> 02:17:08,490
somewhat
1329
02:17:12,139 --> 02:17:18,680
signature here with 17 and that produces
the next rally
1330
02:17:18,680 --> 02:17:25,340
so we are changing behavior here and
we're seeing that from
1331
02:17:25,340 --> 02:17:31,540
emergence of the volume signature and
specifically demand that pushes the
1332
02:17:31,540 --> 02:17:36,920
higher and that is confirming you know
deterioration of the selling and
1333
02:17:36,920 --> 02:17:37,920
suggesting the rally
1334
02:17:46,280 --> 02:17:52,780
hold as the higher low and then another
local breakout the volume signature is
1335
02:17:52,780 --> 02:17:58,540
not that high but that is suggested that
the selling was exhausted as well and
1336
02:17:58,540 --> 02:18:05,420
that the price could move up easily on
the ease of movement again
1337
02:18:05,420 --> 02:18:11,959
those big numbers are important they're
just showing capacity of the price
1338
02:18:11,959 --> 02:18:13,340
to move up
1339
02:18:15,719 --> 02:18:22,360
of the demand demand present this one as
well 16 and look at this whole rally up
1340
02:18:22,360 --> 02:18:29,139
um and even though 10 seems to be like a
big number there's 12 as well
1341
02:18:29,139 --> 02:18:36,059
so we're seeing a lot of volume increase
on the way up a lot of
1342
02:18:36,059 --> 02:18:41,740
demand and again price is going up with
the higher highs higher lows type of
1343
02:18:41,740 --> 02:18:42,740
structure
1344
02:18:43,690 --> 02:18:49,350
At the bottom of the reaction here, 10,
effort is increasing to push the price
1345
02:18:49,350 --> 02:18:54,950
down, but yet the downward result is
diminishing.
1346
02:18:55,230 --> 02:18:58,030
Bullish or bearish? Definitely bullish.
1347
02:19:00,370 --> 02:19:06,830
As we continue on up, we probably would
not see anything
1348
02:19:06,830 --> 02:19:09,830
as a danger until maybe this.
1349
02:19:12,910 --> 02:19:18,389
to go up and look at the quality of the
demand that deteriorates suggesting the
1350
02:19:18,389 --> 02:19:25,309
reaction. Reaction happens, it's one of
the biggest
1351
02:19:25,309 --> 02:19:32,110
reactions to the downside, but yet we
come to a very logical place
1352
02:19:32,110 --> 02:19:38,889
where we stopped before, where the price
had support before, and
1353
02:19:38,889 --> 02:19:41,250
still within the context of the uptrend.
1354
02:19:41,709 --> 02:19:45,889
We're thinking that this is a potential
reaccumulation. Would we have a
1355
02:19:45,889 --> 02:19:46,950
confirmation of that?
1356
02:19:47,430 --> 02:19:51,710
Okay, well, since there are lows here,
the price goes up.
1357
02:20:12,120 --> 02:20:17,920
because to him that was probably the the
1358
02:20:17,920 --> 02:20:24,240
basics for his work that he has done
with the cumulative wave
1359
02:20:24,240 --> 02:20:31,020
and with the rancor charts um and we
actually uh kind of
1360
02:20:31,020 --> 02:20:35,900
uh you know were experimenting a little
bit with rancor charts um i'll probably
1361
02:20:35,900 --> 02:20:38,200
will start showing this later on in 2021
1362
02:20:50,890 --> 02:20:57,810
unusual and you could capture the volume
signature and
1363
02:20:57,810 --> 02:21:04,750
you could capture also the duration of
the rank or bar and that could tell you
1364
02:21:04,750 --> 02:21:11,570
how much time was spent at the specific
price level and what was the
1365
02:21:11,570 --> 02:21:15,210
effort at that place so we'll talk about
this you know
1366
02:21:21,840 --> 02:21:23,400
of David's work in this chart.
1367
02:21:24,040 --> 02:21:30,040
And he was holding several charts like
this, original charts by Wyckoff.
1368
02:21:30,840 --> 02:21:37,700
So to me, this is a very important
chart, not just in terms of how David
1369
02:21:37,700 --> 02:21:44,140
evolved with his studies, but also just
in general, just to kind of think how
1370
02:21:44,140 --> 02:21:45,740
you would go through this chart.
1371
02:21:45,980 --> 02:21:49,740
I want you to maybe make it as an
exercise.
1372
02:21:50,280 --> 02:21:51,400
Print it out.
1373
02:21:51,790 --> 02:21:58,610
then go through this chart column by
column and try to think about what is
1374
02:21:58,610 --> 02:22:05,550
on what is happening for each of the
unique of the box in each of the columns
1375
02:22:05,550 --> 02:22:11,990
and I think it will make a lot of sense
to you as to how David was approaching
1376
02:22:11,990 --> 02:22:15,650
his work okay so I'm gonna go away from
this but before
1377
02:22:25,320 --> 02:22:31,560
and this is within the context of the
overbought condition after the climactic
1378
02:22:31,560 --> 02:22:38,380
surge these are the places where an
overthrow would indicate probably
1379
02:22:38,380 --> 02:22:43,660
a potential stop in action as supply
stops to come in a perfect
1380
02:23:30,120 --> 02:23:34,840
force in the uptrend, it's always going
to be there because somebody is going to
1381
02:23:34,840 --> 02:23:40,060
be taking profit, somebody is going to
be shorting the market in anticipation
1382
02:23:40,060 --> 02:23:41,080
a larger reaction.
1383
02:23:41,720 --> 02:23:48,360
So your job as a tape reader is to see
the emergence of the supply and see what
1384
02:23:48,360 --> 02:23:49,360
happens next.
1385
02:23:50,280 --> 02:23:54,160
There might be a continuation to that.
There might be a change of behavior
1386
02:23:54,160 --> 02:23:56,680
that's going to come, a more meaningful
change of behavior.
1387
02:23:57,000 --> 02:23:58,620
You need to assess that.
1388
02:24:01,230 --> 02:24:07,690
in decisions but if you don't see that
follow -through of the initial supply
1389
02:24:07,690 --> 02:24:13,490
then you have to continue with your
uptrend and
1390
02:24:13,490 --> 02:24:20,090
this is definitely a skill that you have
to develop but also you have to develop
1391
02:24:20,090 --> 02:24:26,670
this as a belief because a lot of
beginners do not understand this they
1392
02:24:26,670 --> 02:24:30,130
emergence of the supply they see how the
volume increases
1393
02:24:35,440 --> 02:24:36,880
This is the beginning of the end.
1394
02:24:37,680 --> 02:24:44,320
In our minds, in the Wyckoffian minds,
this is just a potential beginning of an
1395
02:24:44,320 --> 02:24:48,060
end or a potential continuation of what
is unfolding.
1396
02:24:48,500 --> 02:24:53,400
So I want to, you know, accentuate this
to you a little bit more.
1397
02:24:53,860 --> 02:24:55,200
Think about this.
1398
02:24:55,480 --> 02:24:57,100
It's an extremely important...
1399
02:25:17,200 --> 02:25:21,740
So this was one of the questions, you
know, talk about the cumulative weight.
1400
02:25:21,740 --> 02:25:27,860
here is the volume, regular volume
signature, right? So
1401
02:25:27,860 --> 02:25:34,720
it's kind of visibly for the untrained
eye, hard to
1402
02:25:34,720 --> 02:25:40,700
recognize how much volume is on each of
the swings, right? So here are the
1403
02:25:40,700 --> 02:25:41,980
swings up and down.
1404
02:25:48,110 --> 02:25:54,330
looking at the pnf how the pnf combines
the volume from multiple vertical bars
1405
02:25:54,330 --> 02:26:01,230
the next logical step was to think about
the volume for that column
1406
02:26:01,230 --> 02:26:08,130
and that's why both david and i you know
love uh pnf charts
1407
02:26:08,130 --> 02:26:14,150
because it's a cumulative representation
of effort and the result at the same
1408
02:26:14,150 --> 02:26:15,150
time
1409
02:26:15,560 --> 02:26:21,960
and the idea behind the cumulative wave
volume has been taken from the pnf and
1410
02:26:21,960 --> 02:26:28,540
the pnf and volume so here we're seeing
how david is combining all of the
1411
02:26:28,540 --> 02:26:35,420
volume and in from one swing into a
rising
1412
02:26:35,420 --> 02:26:42,420
volume bars and you could judge the
1413
02:26:42,420 --> 02:26:43,420
effort
1414
02:26:58,380 --> 02:27:04,280
observe the result for instance we could
say that the moves to the upside let's
1415
02:27:04,280 --> 02:27:10,360
say one two three four the moves to the
upside you know were
1416
02:27:10,360 --> 02:27:17,100
somewhat good until wave number four
we've seen how
1417
02:27:17,100 --> 02:27:24,020
demand is in control of the move the
second wave is
1418
02:27:24,020 --> 02:27:27,640
not producing the biggest result but it
doesn't produce the big reaction
1419
02:27:28,810 --> 02:27:34,290
and supply here is very low on the
reaction and then we have a climactic
1420
02:27:34,290 --> 02:27:37,810
you could use this as a climactic surge
1421
02:27:58,250 --> 02:28:05,090
was able to come in and pick up all of
the you know
1422
02:28:05,090 --> 02:28:09,810
demand that we had into the climactic
action right here and we've seen how
1423
02:28:09,810 --> 02:28:15,810
supply has emerged on the way down and
that's the whole premise of this
1424
02:28:15,810 --> 02:28:20,710
twin analysis I think I'm gonna
introduce
1425
02:28:31,920 --> 02:28:37,960
some of the swing analysis that he's
doing using the David cumulative weight
1426
02:28:37,960 --> 02:28:43,540
into the curriculum so we'll definitely
do this in the future and I think it
1427
02:28:43,540 --> 02:28:50,480
will help us to remember David that way
you know a
1428
02:28:50,480 --> 02:28:54,180
lot of things that I was telling him
that we were doing in classrooms he was
1429
02:28:54,180 --> 02:28:59,800
just so excited and he was very curious
because I come from academia
1430
02:29:04,780 --> 02:29:11,740
material um so he always was fascinated
and inquisitive about
1431
02:29:11,740 --> 02:29:18,440
that and it's just unfortunate that we
can't do this together
1432
02:29:18,440 --> 02:29:25,320
now but you know this could be our way
of remembering him all right
1433
02:29:25,320 --> 02:29:29,440
and obviously i would suggest for you
guys just to pick up the book to go
1434
02:29:29,440 --> 02:29:33,100
through those chapters where the
cumulative wave volume is being
1435
02:29:34,120 --> 02:29:40,300
One of the other things that David
introduced is the numbering of that
1436
02:29:40,300 --> 02:29:42,120
cumulative volume on the twins.
1437
02:29:42,420 --> 02:29:44,140
So you kind of could see these numbers.
1438
02:29:45,020 --> 02:29:49,680
And it's a really easy concept.
1439
02:29:50,520 --> 02:29:55,820
You could think about those numbers as
the numbers for the effort.
1440
02:29:56,080 --> 02:30:02,040
So what do we see? We want to see the
effort to increase in the direction of
1441
02:30:02,040 --> 02:30:03,040
trend.
1442
02:30:03,600 --> 02:30:09,340
whenever the effort decreases or the
result decreases we expect some kind of
1443
02:30:09,340 --> 02:30:14,720
potential reversal so let's just go
through the numbers here expansion well
1444
02:30:14,720 --> 02:30:20,600
don't have the previous numbers but
still 32 even over the last downward
1445
02:30:20,600 --> 02:30:27,380
25 looks bullish we've seen this in the
visual here and then look at how supply
1446
02:30:27,380 --> 02:30:28,380
is starting to diminish
1447
02:30:39,200 --> 02:30:45,620
500 to the downside the next wave down
we are at 600 the next wave down we are
1448
02:30:45,620 --> 02:30:51,820
at 700 so a slight increase but not a
big increase and then we are at 4100
1449
02:30:51,820 --> 02:30:58,240
so we're seeing the progression of the
supply increase from
1450
02:30:58,240 --> 02:31:04,680
one down move to another down move and
at the same time we're seeing how uh
1451
02:31:04,680 --> 02:31:07,560
let's say from 54 to 11
1452
02:31:08,680 --> 02:31:15,000
is starting to decrease and we want to
find that spot where the change of
1453
02:31:15,000 --> 02:31:20,680
behavior happens so here's that change
of behavior demand deteriorate supply
1454
02:31:20,680 --> 02:31:27,120
emerges what could we expect a download
and that that you know
1455
02:31:27,120 --> 02:31:33,840
um that that's all about you know like
in a very simplistic
1456
02:31:33,840 --> 02:31:35,240
terms that's all about
1457
02:31:38,480 --> 02:31:45,320
of thinking about the cumulative way of
how he was thinking about when he was
1458
02:31:45,320 --> 02:31:51,540
constructing it it's that effort versus
result a
1459
02:31:51,540 --> 02:31:57,680
deeper look into the supply and demand
relative to the swing structure and just
1460
02:31:57,680 --> 02:31:59,480
deterioration of one over another
1461
02:32:13,580 --> 02:32:18,360
numbers such as you know this is a
cumulative number of this weight right
1462
02:32:18,360 --> 02:32:25,120
so it's just being cumulatively
1463
02:32:25,120 --> 02:32:30,520
put together and that is the number
usually in the thousands just depending
1464
02:32:30,520 --> 02:32:36,400
the instrument if this is future this
one thing if this is
1465
02:32:36,400 --> 02:32:41,140
so this is euro 250 tick bar chart
1466
02:32:47,360 --> 02:32:51,760
number okay what else you
1467
02:32:51,760 --> 02:32:59,220
okay
1468
02:32:59,220 --> 02:33:05,780
so I think that these are the basics
here
1469
02:33:05,780 --> 02:33:12,620
on the wave counts and cumulative volume
counts and how to visualize
1470
02:33:12,620 --> 02:33:19,520
that how to work with that i would
highly recommend um uh reading
1471
02:33:19,520 --> 02:33:24,740
david's book i think that probably that
would be the best source there or
1472
02:33:24,740 --> 02:33:29,880
finding some of his presentations
earlier presentations uh where he talks
1473
02:33:29,880 --> 02:33:36,360
uh his wave um actually best of wake up
that is free on our youtube channel like
1474
02:33:36,360 --> 02:33:43,240
of uh trading method uh i think his
presentation contains
1475
02:33:43,240 --> 02:33:48,070
that or maybe at the previous test or
like i'll have to look
1476
02:33:48,070 --> 02:33:54,090
okay um same wave structure here
1477
02:33:54,090 --> 02:34:01,050
uh and same numbers so uh the only
difference here
1478
02:34:01,050 --> 02:34:08,010
is that now we are adding the length of
the wave in the number of minutes and
1479
02:34:08,010 --> 02:34:10,950
again this is just a little bit
1480
02:34:12,870 --> 02:34:19,430
concept so i'm gonna go through this
really quickly you want to see
1481
02:34:19,430 --> 02:34:26,290
you want to see how much
1482
02:34:26,290 --> 02:34:32,330
time it takes for the effort to overcome
a specific distance that the swing
1483
02:34:32,330 --> 02:34:33,850
travels so how about that
1484
02:34:45,290 --> 02:34:50,410
say overcome a specific area uh it would
tell you that there is more presence
1485
02:34:50,410 --> 02:34:57,010
let's say of supply or the uh or the
demand and it needs to be observed so
1486
02:34:57,010 --> 02:35:02,230
resolution of that extension of the
duration usually is much more profound
1487
02:35:02,230 --> 02:35:09,150
and then a shorter duration so for
instance like
1488
02:35:09,150 --> 02:35:16,110
right here we have three minutes seven
minutes i'm sorry the
1489
02:35:16,110 --> 02:35:21,930
first number i think yeah the first
number is the uh it's the number of
1490
02:35:21,930 --> 02:35:28,930
right okay so 10 10 5 10 and then look
at this
1491
02:35:28,930 --> 02:35:35,490
55 minutes right so it took uh quite
some time but look at the result
1492
02:35:35,490 --> 02:35:41,030
uh for this type of numbers uh you know
in terms of how much time it took it
1493
02:35:41,030 --> 02:35:43,730
definitely uh logical to have
1494
02:35:45,000 --> 02:35:50,700
lot of progression in the uptrend how
1495
02:35:50,700 --> 02:35:57,480
do we determine the end of the start of
the swing so David was
1496
02:35:57,480 --> 02:36:03,440
taking the closes first of all so you
kind of see that the all the swings they
1497
02:36:03,440 --> 02:36:09,520
they end at the closes they do not he
didn't look at the tails
1498
02:36:09,520 --> 02:36:14,870
you could have so many ways of how you
define the swing you could
1499
02:36:14,870 --> 02:36:21,710
take the definition of the zigzag
function and just go from
1500
02:36:21,710 --> 02:36:25,790
there that zigzag function could be
based on the percentage could be based
1501
02:36:25,790 --> 02:36:32,150
number of points and it basically is
going to define where
1502
02:36:32,150 --> 02:36:38,390
exactly there is a reversal so let's say
if i say x percent or
1503
02:36:38,390 --> 02:36:40,610
a specific number of points
1504
02:36:41,390 --> 02:36:47,150
it's going to find that spot where that
percent is being violated or the number
1505
02:36:47,150 --> 02:36:52,030
of points happening this is the
potential reversal in wtp we're
1506
02:36:52,030 --> 02:36:57,150
significant bars reversal so this is
similar concept but without any
1507
02:36:57,150 --> 02:37:04,150
quantification more of the visual okay
yeah
1508
02:37:04,150 --> 02:37:08,950
so let's let's probably go from there
here yeah so quite a lot
1509
02:37:12,840 --> 02:37:19,320
This was really cool. Rob reached out to
David and Rob, I'm so grateful that you
1510
02:37:19,320 --> 02:37:22,540
did because you connected to him this
way.
1511
02:37:23,480 --> 02:37:27,720
So I'm really happy that you had that
opportunity.
1512
02:37:28,400 --> 02:37:34,280
So this was the current example of the
SMP and how we were going through the
1513
02:37:34,280 --> 02:37:39,360
COVID reaction and then the subsequent
move up.
1514
02:37:40,420 --> 02:37:46,890
So what do we... on the way down here uh
64 24 so we've seen
1515
02:37:46,890 --> 02:37:51,910
on the intraday basis the deterioration
of the supply in this trading range even
1516
02:37:51,910 --> 02:37:58,150
though it still was volatile 103 uh
commitment to the downside but not a big
1517
02:37:58,150 --> 02:38:04,850
commitment yet effort is so big so that
suggests presence of the demand
1518
02:38:04,850 --> 02:38:11,830
and then obviously we are on you know
traveling up 81 was the best rally that
1519
02:38:11,830 --> 02:38:18,330
we had, right? So 37, 26, 34, 34, 17,
1520
02:38:18,470 --> 02:38:19,750
and then 81.
1521
02:38:20,350 --> 02:38:26,570
So that was a very big momentum move
that suggested that we are done with the
1522
02:38:26,570 --> 02:38:28,170
down move, we are in a different
environment.
1523
02:38:28,590 --> 02:38:35,570
And then look at the numbers at the
bottom, 23, 43, 18, relative to 103, or
1524
02:38:35,570 --> 02:38:37,970
64, or 19.
1525
02:38:38,920 --> 02:38:45,620
277 so definitely shows ability for the
price to hold on to the gains and just
1526
02:38:45,620 --> 02:38:52,320
retrace maybe 50 percent so this was
right here uh the last confirmation for
1527
02:38:52,320 --> 02:38:57,120
buy is up and obviously you know in the
classroom we've picked it up actually
1528
02:38:57,120 --> 02:39:04,020
almost to the last intraday bar then as
the price goes up two or three quite
1529
02:39:04,020 --> 02:39:05,700
a big number right there
1530
02:39:07,630 --> 02:39:12,450
suggestive of the climactic action and
the imminent reaction
1531
02:39:12,450 --> 02:39:18,990
72 was the highest number since 103 so
1532
02:39:18,990 --> 02:39:23,630
you have to think here exactly what i've
been telling you this whole session
1533
02:39:23,630 --> 02:39:29,090
supply emerges what kind of result does
it produce yes it could have a reaction
1534
02:39:37,840 --> 02:39:43,840
which was you know quite a pickup look
at the 62 here off the low
1535
02:39:43,840 --> 02:39:50,500
uh look at 88 and 81 here so we're still
traveling up
1536
02:39:50,500 --> 02:39:57,400
uh where demand is showing up and then
supply is showing a successful test so
1537
02:39:57,400 --> 02:40:01,160
that's a just a continuation that's how
you would be interpreting those
1538
02:40:12,680 --> 02:40:19,260
this a lot in the first series i i have
shown you how you could use pnf um it's
1539
02:40:19,260 --> 02:40:24,740
a cumulative effort and cumulative
result so here is a cumulative result to
1540
02:40:24,740 --> 02:40:31,660
upside which exceeded all of the
attempts to go up on the previous
1541
02:40:31,660 --> 02:40:37,680
so that was a change of behavior on the
way out and then the subsequent reaction
1542
02:40:37,680 --> 02:40:40,980
did not have supply signature so you
could visualize
1543
02:40:42,040 --> 02:40:47,100
this picture like this so you don't
necessarily have to have all of those
1544
02:40:47,100 --> 02:40:53,980
numbers okay all right okay how
1545
02:40:53,980 --> 02:41:00,340
much time do we have excellent we have
about 20 minutes or so all right guys
1546
02:41:00,340 --> 02:41:03,420
let's do some exercises so this is going
to be the
1547
02:41:26,000 --> 02:41:30,460
This is the technology that we've been
developing in the practicum class with
1548
02:41:30,460 --> 02:41:31,460
our advanced students.
1549
02:41:31,780 --> 02:41:36,040
I want you to think about this in a
specific way.
1550
02:42:07,150 --> 02:42:11,270
for the solution where they shouldn't be
one.
1551
02:42:13,930 --> 02:42:14,530
So
1552
02:42:14,530 --> 02:42:22,750
the
1553
02:42:22,750 --> 02:42:24,250
screen should be on now.
1554
02:42:27,210 --> 02:42:33,030
I want you to go through the bias game
in a slightly different way. For those
1555
02:42:33,030 --> 02:42:35,650
you who have not attended the practical
1556
02:42:37,740 --> 02:42:44,600
to give you a quick algorithm as to how
to think about charts when you are
1557
02:42:44,600 --> 02:42:49,240
looking at the consolidations and you're
trying to define the bias i want you
1558
02:42:49,240 --> 02:42:56,180
first to think about the environment and
kind of divide the
1559
02:42:56,180 --> 02:43:01,700
chart into different sections right so
where do you see an uptrend where do you
1560
02:43:01,700 --> 02:43:05,720
see a consolidation within the
consolidation what kind of swings do you
1561
02:43:05,720 --> 02:43:11,520
second thing I want you to start
thinking about swing analysis, so swing
1562
02:43:11,520 --> 02:43:18,420
swing, and to think about the swings as
what's the intention behind
1563
02:43:18,420 --> 02:43:22,940
that swing, what has been accomplished
by that swing, and what kind of effort
1564
02:43:22,940 --> 02:43:23,940
behind that swing.
1565
02:43:44,040 --> 02:43:48,860
two types of thinking about the bars
significant bars
1566
02:43:48,860 --> 02:43:55,700
and more importantly what is the result
1567
02:44:13,160 --> 02:44:18,660
which is the latest price action so what
do you see there because the latest
1568
02:44:18,660 --> 02:44:25,340
price action is going to define the next
move so therefore within the
1569
02:44:25,340 --> 02:44:31,560
structure of the whole thing then it's
important so then only then you start
1570
02:44:31,560 --> 02:44:36,640
thinking about what is the bias of the
game and then after that then you label
1571
02:44:36,640 --> 02:44:37,640
the whole thing
1572
02:44:43,790 --> 02:44:50,290
in itself I don't want you even to to
think
1573
02:44:50,290 --> 02:44:56,630
about the labeling at all so we're just
gonna just check out this
1574
02:44:56,630 --> 02:45:01,950
they're the same haven't we seen this
chart in the previous one session
1575
02:45:01,950 --> 02:45:08,930
yeah so I thought that I deleted it okay
well David if you
1576
02:45:08,930 --> 02:45:10,210
have in it what the bus
1577
02:45:21,130 --> 02:45:22,130
David,
1578
02:45:22,330 --> 02:45:23,330
what is the bias here?
1579
02:46:08,490 --> 02:46:14,210
accumulation bullish distribution
uptrend distribution uptrend okay okay
1580
02:46:14,210 --> 02:46:19,990
one because we actually did this yeah so
this was a distribution so what was the
1581
02:46:19,990 --> 02:46:26,370
key here let me kind of quickly go
through this with you so uptrend
1582
02:46:26,370 --> 02:46:32,250
then a consolidation within the
consolidation what are the most
1583
02:46:32,250 --> 02:46:37,910
elements of that what is the most
important bar on this chart by the way
1584
02:46:48,780 --> 02:46:53,480
This is the bar right here. This bar
defines the selling zone.
1585
02:46:53,860 --> 02:46:58,520
And look at how Uptra comes beautifully
at this place.
1586
02:46:59,220 --> 02:47:04,060
And what is happening with all of the
attempts to go up?
1587
02:47:04,940 --> 02:47:06,120
They all fail.
1588
02:47:06,360 --> 02:47:08,500
They cannot overcome this bar.
1589
02:47:09,300 --> 02:47:14,640
And that bar has had some selling. And
that selling produced that change of
1590
02:47:14,640 --> 02:47:15,640
behavior.
1591
02:47:16,240 --> 02:47:20,960
negated almost all of the games of the
last climactic run so right here we're
1592
02:47:20,960 --> 02:47:26,040
thinking because of that negation
because of that increase of the supply
1593
02:47:26,040 --> 02:47:32,120
the bias is there to be confirmed or to
fail and then first attempt
1594
02:47:32,120 --> 02:47:39,120
failure supply comes in again second
attempt failure but you know more of the
1595
02:47:39,120 --> 02:47:43,560
bullish character and then on this
particular bar this is the second most
1596
02:47:46,600 --> 02:47:51,260
supply comes in again and off the supply
comes in we have a very rapid decline
1597
02:49:34,630 --> 02:49:38,030
important swing on this chart
1598
02:49:38,030 --> 02:49:47,150
what
1599
02:49:47,150 --> 02:49:53,030
is the most important swing on this
chart i
1600
02:49:53,030 --> 02:49:57,970
would say this
1601
02:49:57,970 --> 02:50:04,760
right volatility increases supply in and
that comes
1602
02:50:04,760 --> 02:50:11,520
after what after we have some supply
here then that supply has been
1603
02:50:11,520 --> 02:50:17,440
observed throughout the time throughout
the consolidation then we have a sign of
1604
02:50:17,440 --> 02:50:18,440
strength
1605
02:50:33,520 --> 02:50:37,140
this question all of you what is the
result of that action
1606
02:50:37,140 --> 02:50:45,460
to
1607
02:50:45,460 --> 02:50:50,660
understand the result of the action you
need to understand what was the intent
1608
02:50:50,660 --> 02:50:57,640
of that action right so we intended
intended to overcome the support level
1609
02:50:57,640 --> 02:50:58,900
did we do so
1610
02:51:08,710 --> 02:51:13,230
chandra is saying temporarily we
committed yeah and then we recovered
1611
02:51:13,230 --> 02:51:17,350
quickly on the next bar and then we
tested it and then we continued to the
1612
02:51:17,350 --> 02:51:24,030
upside so it's almost like a spring type
of action that is a spring
1613
02:51:24,030 --> 02:51:30,270
of sorts where we recover so there is so
much effort to the downside
1614
02:51:37,930 --> 02:51:38,909
Bullish or bearish?
1615
02:51:38,910 --> 02:51:42,110
Definitely bullish. Do we have a
confirmation of the bullish behavior
1616
02:51:42,110 --> 02:51:43,110
afterwards?
1617
02:51:43,570 --> 02:51:44,570
Yes, we do.
1618
02:51:44,930 --> 02:51:48,790
Supply is coming in even more, and yet
we are creating a higher low.
1619
02:51:49,570 --> 02:51:55,970
We are capable of not only just coming
to the resistance, but actually going
1620
02:51:55,970 --> 02:51:57,050
even above it.
1621
02:51:57,590 --> 02:52:02,870
And then the next move down does not
have the same supply signature as
1622
02:52:03,070 --> 02:52:05,890
and it comes into the higher low as
well.
1623
02:52:06,640 --> 02:52:11,780
there is only probably two or three big
bars to the downside
1624
02:52:11,780 --> 02:52:18,740
that's it alex is asking how do you see
the week up move after the
1625
02:52:18,740 --> 02:52:23,980
sprint actually if you would be thinking
you know what kind of move do we have
1626
02:52:23,980 --> 02:52:24,980
like for instance here
1627
02:52:36,270 --> 02:52:38,750
Obviously, this is kind of like a stable
move up.
1628
02:52:39,010 --> 02:52:43,690
This has this bar right here that has a
lot of demand and supply at the same
1629
02:52:43,690 --> 02:52:46,270
time. But this one is also very dynamic.
1630
02:52:47,770 --> 02:52:50,390
Look at these bars off the bottom.
1631
02:52:52,170 --> 02:52:59,150
They are all bars that are somewhat
larger in the spread. This
1632
02:52:59,150 --> 02:53:03,750
is a much larger average spread to the
upside than we have here.
1633
02:53:04,400 --> 02:53:10,640
so we can't say that this is a weak
rally by any means alex so it has
1634
02:53:10,640 --> 02:53:15,420
some aggressiveness and capacity
actually even to probe higher prices
1635
02:53:15,420 --> 02:53:22,200
so this was also a little bit market
related you know we've talked
1636
02:53:22,200 --> 02:53:29,040
about the source of funding this was
that 2011 august crash that
1637
02:53:29,040 --> 02:53:30,720
also had a very quick
1638
02:53:46,760 --> 02:53:47,900
let's go to the next one
1639
02:54:15,950 --> 02:54:16,950
Answers are coming in.
1640
02:54:45,840 --> 02:54:46,940
We're 50 -50 here.
1641
02:54:47,740 --> 02:54:50,380
So let's just go through some of the
questions.
1642
02:54:52,140 --> 02:54:58,660
We're seeing an uptrend, and then we're
seeing a change of behavior right here.
1643
02:54:59,360 --> 02:55:05,280
So let's go through this area just to
define exactly where the selling has
1644
02:55:05,280 --> 02:55:09,740
happened. I would say that selling has
happened on this bar, this bar.
1645
02:55:23,440 --> 02:55:29,240
So we're basically just saying that this
is the zone right here that we need to
1646
02:55:29,240 --> 02:55:30,240
overcome.
1647
02:55:30,680 --> 02:55:35,780
So a flashcard idea, did we do that?
1648
02:55:36,600 --> 02:55:42,460
And a flashcard idea is just, you know,
again, something that we've developed in
1649
02:55:42,460 --> 02:55:43,460
the practical.
1650
02:55:43,480 --> 02:55:49,680
It's one thought that could bring you
instantly to the solution of the bias.
1651
02:55:53,360 --> 02:56:00,200
those rallies fail to overcome the sell
zone and the answer to that is
1652
02:56:00,200 --> 02:56:07,020
yes all of the attempts to push the
price higher are failing
1653
02:56:07,020 --> 02:56:13,760
and one of the significant bars on this
chart
1654
02:56:13,760 --> 02:56:20,620
is this one this is the most aggressive
attempt by the bulls to produce
1655
02:56:20,620 --> 02:56:21,620
some kind of rally
1656
02:56:23,820 --> 02:56:30,620
some supply behind it but look at the
volume signature in this
1657
02:56:30,620 --> 02:56:36,540
area right here except for this volume
signature which is basically you know
1658
02:56:36,540 --> 02:56:43,400
supply we don't see anything else of
significance and yet what happens
1659
02:56:43,400 --> 02:56:48,700
after this box we are testing first and
it looks like yeah everything's fine
1660
02:56:48,700 --> 02:56:51,320
everything's okay but then after that we
are failing
1661
02:56:53,520 --> 02:56:59,760
negating all of the gains that we have
in this bar so it is important for us to
1662
02:56:59,760 --> 02:57:05,280
understand what happens on the right
edge of the consolidation we don't
1663
02:57:05,280 --> 02:57:10,440
necessarily want to kind of like lose
that perspective of what is the short
1664
02:57:10,440 --> 02:57:16,180
-term potential move and then when we
think that you know with this negation
1665
02:57:16,180 --> 02:57:20,500
the gains on that big bar this is
looking bearish if we're gonna go down
1666
02:57:33,930 --> 02:57:37,270
difficult bias games, and I wanted to
pick more difficult ones.
1667
02:57:37,930 --> 02:57:42,190
So look at Twitter. 75 % were saying
that this is an accumulation.
1668
02:57:45,770 --> 02:57:47,370
Okay. Yeah, that's it.
1669
02:57:48,150 --> 02:57:50,310
And we are right at 6 o 'clock.
1670
02:57:51,750 --> 02:57:57,610
Alright, guys. So quite a lot of
material today, but I appreciate that,
1671
02:57:57,610 --> 02:58:02,730
know, I could be done today for the year
end, for the semester end, just, you
1672
02:58:02,730 --> 02:58:03,599
know.
1673
02:58:03,600 --> 02:58:10,340
start resting again it's just so
1674
02:58:10,340 --> 02:58:17,220
unexpected and so heartbreaking that
David is
1675
02:58:17,220 --> 02:58:24,000
no longer with us so hopefully going
1676
02:58:24,000 --> 02:58:30,080
through the slides by students you know
on his book you know we felt his
1677
02:58:30,080 --> 02:58:31,660
presence we felt his thoughts
1678
02:58:37,320 --> 02:58:43,020
to take us some time, you know, to come
to the acceptance that he's not here.
1679
02:58:44,620 --> 02:58:51,360
And we can't really let go to the
source, to
1680
02:58:51,360 --> 02:58:58,240
him. So I would advise you guys to
absolutely pick up his book.
1681
02:58:58,880 --> 02:59:00,200
Reread it if you read it.
1682
02:59:01,280 --> 02:59:06,560
Reread it as a study guide, as a study
book where you're making notes. where
1683
02:59:06,560 --> 02:59:10,420
you're printing out the charts, and then
you're going bar by bar.
1684
02:59:13,420 --> 02:59:19,340
Meanwhile, for those of you who are
going to continue with us on tape
1685
02:59:19,340 --> 02:59:24,900
and chart reading, I'm looking forward
to January's tape reading lab, so keep
1686
02:59:24,900 --> 02:59:29,500
that in mind, and we'll inform you as to
when it's going to happen, how it's
1687
02:59:29,500 --> 02:59:31,780
going to happen, what format, and so on
and so forth.
1688
02:59:35,660 --> 02:59:41,280
One of my personal goals is to go even
deeper in chart reading, tape reading,
1689
02:59:41,480 --> 02:59:48,400
and I'm just kind of seeing a lot of the
things that we
1690
02:59:48,400 --> 02:59:49,640
even haven't talked about.
1691
02:59:50,600 --> 02:59:55,020
But those are the things that are even
nuances, they're just a little bit more
1692
02:59:55,020 --> 03:00:00,140
advanced, and obviously I wasn't
expecting that the course is going to
1693
03:00:00,140 --> 03:00:01,140
like this.
1694
03:00:01,520 --> 03:00:05,140
So with that, I would like to wish
everybody...
1695
03:00:05,390 --> 03:00:09,630
Happy holidays, whatever you celebrate,
whether you are in the U .S. or around
1696
03:00:09,630 --> 03:00:10,630
the world.
1697
03:00:11,550 --> 03:00:17,930
You know, I'm wishing all of you guys a
peace of mind in this
1698
03:00:17,930 --> 03:00:21,370
crazy world, in this crazy year.
1699
03:00:21,890 --> 03:00:27,710
I think, you know, without any
exaggeration to say that, a lot of us
1700
03:00:27,710 --> 03:00:32,670
that, you know, it's good for this year
to end, and hopefully the next year will
1701
03:00:32,670 --> 03:00:33,810
be much better.
1702
03:00:37,740 --> 03:00:43,320
with your family enjoy the time with
your family and at the same time figure
1703
03:00:43,320 --> 03:00:49,000
how to use this vacation time you know
meaning vacation time to your benefit go
1704
03:00:49,000 --> 03:00:53,760
through the charts pick up David's book
you know read that you know pick up our
1705
03:00:53,760 --> 03:00:59,160
videos pick up the videos from tape
reading course go through those make
1706
03:01:06,350 --> 03:01:10,870
right guys with that thank you so much
and if you have any questions just email
1707
03:01:10,870 --> 03:01:16,770
like associates at gmail .com I'll be
really happy to hear from thank you guys
161874
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