Original subtitles

Hello everyone.

Today is November 12th and this is a bonus session that we have.

Unscheduled bonus session in the series number two. So as you might know,

David had a health episode this week. I'm

not going to go into the details of what exactly is going on.

I'm just going to leave it to David and his family.

So I've received the news on Tuesday and we had to figure out what

to do.

So this is the session that is completely free to you.

So that's why we're calling it a bonus session. We're still going to go the

and 30 minutes that, you know, David was planning to go for.

This is not a substitute.

So therefore.

Once David comes back, he's going to continue where he stopped for the

number two and then session number three.

If David's absence will be

longer in duration than next Thursday, then I think what we're going to

do is we'll probably either start with

Will at some point. point and we'll just go into those three sessions and we're

just gonna postpone the last two sessions with David White I really don't

guys I wish I would know better you know in terms of the information

but that's what's going on right now it's kind of life right happens to all

us and we just wish him David

swift recovery full recovery and obviously you know to come back to us

know to talk about the subject that we love so much okay so what are we gonna

today that today we are gonna go through actually there is

only one question that I found in the in your emails then we're gonna go into

the bias game exercise

Then we're going to do the tapering simulation,

and if time allows, we'll do the market update.

And we'll stop anywhere along the way, just because

I was thinking how to create this session. What would be

the most valuable, most practical, most efficient thing to do in this owner

session now?

that we've covered how many we've covered five sessions so far uh with

sessions from me one from gary fullett and one from david white so this is

session number six if you're going from session number one um i think a practice

here would be uh really good so let's do exactly that

okay um for those of you who are new to our

um wake up analytics classes and courses i just want to quickly mention that the

fundamental course and somebody actually mailed me from the group of new people

who joined us the foundational course for us the flexure core course is the

uh wake up trading course uh there are two parts to it uh to it the first one

the analysis the second one is the practical so in the first part we

go heavy on the analysis from different points of view. We talk about market

structural analysis, or rather price structural analysis. How does the price

travel?

How does it change environments from, let's say, trending to non -trending?

are those clues that we could extract from the price action that allows us to

understand what's going to happen next?

Obviously, Wyckoff events, Wyckoff phases.

that is very important and then the next big topic is supply and demand or

rather volume and price um and by the way yeah

greg uh craig is asking the question here so um if you guys have you know any

questions related to tape reading definitely you know we could address it

in the q a section um volume and price analysis

Specifically, effort versus result, this is the most important law that I

would say is acting out in the marketplace.

Bar by bar, swing by swing analysis, volume patterns in different phases,

historical analogs.

The first two months, actually three months, are quite intense.

then relative comparative analysis which you guys know a lot about but there are

a lot of you know those small nuances as to how to go about it how to conduct it

um you know we have some proprietary things uh that we discuss as well and

filtering and scanning you know just on at the very basic level trade management

this is just a quick review this is not uh really in depth uh in the practice

this is where we we go more into the tactics as to how to trade you know how

position you know your portfolio and so on so forth and the last session is a q

a so for those of you who are interested in a more foundational like of

education please consider this i would be happy to work with you the new

semester starts on january 4th so check it out you could already register for

that course another product that i want to mention is the one

class that i teach on the weekly basis with bruce frazier bruce frazier is a

colleague a friend by coffee and for the last 220 weeks

or so we got together with bruce and went through

the market analysis and the group and stocks analysis

using the Wyckoff methodology so it's always a fun hour and a half it goes

really fast there is a lot of information we just go at it boom boom

you know just going through a lot of the assets and you could also submit your

chart you know for our review okay

first couple of questions and I see that you know we have one more here in the

chat from David I'm having difficulties separating a weak candle with no

supply no demand candle for example when the contact is in a

downtrend the difference between weakness on a bullish candle or no

candle if the volume

is remarkably low than the previous okay excuse me i'm gonna read this again for

example when the context is in a downtrend the difference between

bullish candle or no supply candle in the volume is remarkably lower than the

previous candle okay so i'm gonna assume i understand what this question is uh

i'm kind of having a little bit of a trouble here understanding so let's just

say that the context is the downtrend

we are talking about two types of candles so the first type is the weak

candle so meaning that we are having some kind of counter reaction to the

trend so this spread could be smaller and then the volume signature will go

suggesting that demand is going down what is our usually perceived deduction

about this type of scenario in this type of context

what do you guys think we have a

downtrend we have an up bar that is showing diminishing demand

what does it mean does it mean a more bullish scenario or a more wicked

yeah weakness continued bearishness continuation of the downtrend no demand

bearish continuation yes

so all of you guys are correct so this is more bearish than bullish

in this context okay so let's

think about now the same scenario downtrend

and now we have a weaker supply so we have this spread to the downside

that is diminution in quality

so therefore we're going to put both diminution spread and diminution supply

what does it mean is it bullish or bearish

bearish possible exhaustion bullish i believe it's bullish supply potentially

exhausted could be bullish bullish bearish but vulnerable

okay so um i mean all of them are good answers and i think that we would need

to be a little bit more specific as to you know where exactly it happens as it

happens like at the beginning of the swing at the end of the swing

you know those are going to be different places where interpretation might vary

but let's just say first interpretation of this we are in the downtrend and the

price still is going down but it's going down at a slower rate so we definitely

gonna see that we are bearish but vulnerable short

term

secondly we could say that if this was an attempt to rally if

this bar is

an attempt to rally so then what is the

outcome of that rally it tries to rally and then it can't and it goes even lower

so what does it mean

Yes, failure to rally supply.

It's not that supply, somebody's saying supply exists. Yes, well, supply exists,

but it goes down. It tells us more story about demand is poor,

and then little supply

moves price.

So when would a small supply move the price down?

in the context of the downtrend is of

movement yeah so i would be looking at this two scenarios with a

weaker um you know weaker candle like that uh in the defined context and

the question is not correctly it took me a little bit of time to understand you

know what is being asked so david hopefully i'm you know answering the

and I'm not answering my question okay yes great so

you guys could see how and I see this with students you know even

I was talking to you you know France today and I was telling him how you know

his ability to read and observe is somewhat better than,

let's say, two months ago because he's been practicing a lot.

But I was telling him also that in this type of a situation, there are

variations. It's not a very clear card as our minds are trying to

make. A downtrend, so a specific bar means this.

But we're exactly in the downtrend that happened.

What was the intent behind that action of that particular bar?

You know, it's different.

And you have to either remember this type of situations, remember, you know,

this type of sequence, or just to go through many, many examples and kind of

that.

How about this?

How about we reverse the context?

And I wonder what you all start thinking about this bar in the context

that is different.

so let's say the context right now is an upward bias so then how would we

interpret this bar right here number one

vulnerable but still bullish

continuation ease of movement

slow in demand yeah all of those and

know whatever else is going to come uh we're just basically reversing scenarios

right so if we're in the up context and let's say prior to this there was a big

bar and now we have a smaller bar on dimension demand characteristics in the

context of this move up we're gonna say that we are vulnerable

but still bullish

and obviously within but still bullish until we see some kind of reversal

right that confirms to us that that vulnerability was converted into

a bearish reversal and that's another mistake that i see a lot not

waiting you know seeing that vulnerability and making a call a

uh at the vulnerable spot that you know, actually, you know, does

not materialize. And in a lot of cases, I make this mistake as well, especially

with options trading. Because with options, you always want to get out like

the top, at the bottom, where there is some kind of expansion of the premium.

And then when you see that type of vulnerability, you don't want to go in a

different direction. You don't want to...

have that premium be taken away from you very quickly okay or

ease of movement if there was an attempt to

react right so for instance if we have this type of tail that would tell

us the story that on the intraday basis there was an attempt to push the price

down and then the price recovered back so ease of movement

if reaction was unfolding or let's say supply increased and then the price

went up okay so some questions uh that

probably needs to be re -asked

okay david so what

example of which reversal bar how the reversal bar would look like yeah so the

reversal bar would look uh This way.

You have the commitment to the downside.

And this is something that we study in the Wyckoff Trading Course.

So for those of you who are interested to know how we are looking at the

reversals, obviously, in more details I could show in the course. So you would

have the bar to the downside that reverses the close of the previous bar.

And that shows the commitment of institutional traders.

They push the price.

below into the close uh below the low of the previous commitment in the opposite

direction all right okay let's go to the second question when talking about

contacts does it change the first relevant bar or do we await

more clear signals for example when the context is still a downtrend does the

context change

uh the first relevant green bar which probably will have the effect that

produced a rally okay so very specific places that david is taking us

so let's say we're in the climactic action selling climax

what does this bar mean guys

what would you how would you

describe this bar

And then also, you know, what is the implication of this bar?

While you do this, from Iqbal, Gary Fullett had mentioned that closes are

significant in the trading range, but matter in the markup phase D and E. I

don't know. My personal preference, like from experience...

and the way how I teach that closes are extremely important.

And they are important anywhere, whether this is a trading range or a trend.

Maybe there is some distinction that he talks about in terms of being more

meaningful in the trending environment, which, understandable, you need to see

the progression of the close.

But I would say that I look at the closes all the time.

okay stop in action urgent by change of behavior change of behavior change of

behavior bar that stops the downtrend v shape something different is going on

the implication is further rally stopping bar with the demand tail stop

action demand dominating strong reaction stop in action okay

yeah so i mean you guys you guys are really good so you You kind of know a

of stuff already.

So what's happening on this bar? Well, first of all, what's important to this

bar first is not even the bar itself, but what comes prior

to the bar. What comes prior to the bar?

We are in the context of a downtrend.

We are in the climactic run.

And again, you know if you're not familiar with this type of terminologies

characteristics of the climactic run it's better you know we're not going to

into the details here just because we don't have time um we have like what an

hour and 10 minutes now so you know for those of you who are interested just

sign up for the course in this climactic run what kind of condition are we

developing here

gabriel is right oversold in the downtrend which creates strength by

value for strong hands absolutely yes it's an oversold condition where strong

hands are finding a long -term value plus there is a local

liquidity increase just because weak hands are selling

so that attracts you know big institutional

interests that are long -term oriented and they are buying as they are buying

what happens demand is increasing

supply is being observed so the process of absorption

is at the high rate and then when the demand stops

the price from going further up and demand overwhelms supply this is what we

have as a result we have this rally so i would probably describe

this sequence of the selling climax going into the automatic reaction like

i would say demand supply increases because weak

hands are selling

the demand is being attracted and this is a ceo demand

because

ceo is buying so this is weak hands selling

and um as the ceo starts to buy

there are certain things that are happening price for stock

starts rolling something interesting happens a lot of professional that are

the winning position this means that they were short I'm gonna start

closing their position so what that does is that their

mark order to close becomes a market order to buy

so this is a market buy

And that increases demand again.

This increase of the demand again leads to the price's

advancement.

And that rally continues.

So CO is buying on the way down, on the way up.

Then professional starts to close in their shorts, so that adds to the

and the rally continues.

And as that happens, something very unique to the switch in the environment

happens. From a downtrend in the environment now, we're going to say that

changing the behavior.

So change of behavior happens. And what is change of behavior?

Characteristically,

the upspread is increasing the demand signature is increasing

on the background of the overall volume increase as well we have the

upward swing increasing as well into

the automatic rally so the next thing that happens is automatic rally

becomes an automatic response to the stop in action

there is something else that is extremely important that I'm not

so let's finish this up with that statement as we are observing a change

behavior what does this mean what kind of conclusion

would you draw from a change of behavior

that comes out of the oversold condition after the climactic run

want to see somebody else some like new name that i

don't know okay so good

okay still i feel so many of our students okay well let's

let's go today with possible trading range because a change takes time to

develop okay great so we are changing environment we need to confirm

that the change of behavior is going to lead to the change of character two

different things again no time to explain today but usually change of

will lead to a change of character whereas change of behavior is just a

character with which the price moves

And then change of character, you know, this is the environmental switch.

And we are switching from a downtrend to a trading range. So at some point,

once we confirm that a change of behavior, I'm sorry, a change of

happened, we know that we are in the trading range.

And after that...

The only thing that we need to do is to define the bias, the timing, and then

the character of the next move as the price leaves the trading range from

C and D.

All right, so that's the whole process.

Okay, I think that's it for this question.

Thank you, David.

Let's go to our first access, although there was one more question.

Somebody was asking, and there's all of the answers. I loved it.

Let me just quickly see if I could see that.

Okay, from Craig.

If you have time in the Q &A.

at the end can you review the keys to knowing difference between distribution

and reaccumulation accumulation and redistribution okay well i think this is

good bridge question for us correct you know into the next segment and again you

know david asked us you know to have shorter sessions so hour and a half you

know if uh if we don't have enough time you know i'll go another you know 10 15

20 minutes so don't worry about that okay here's our first

exercise it's a bias game don't worry you have not seen this

bias game so don't rush you know to look whether you have it or not just look

at this chart and this is a very basic tape reading exercise and that you know

you usually want to do maybe with somebody else or in the classroom right

don't want to know the outcome

So I'm going to give you maybe about 30 seconds or so just to

think about it with your calm mind.

And I want you to not only think about the bias of what comes next,

but I also want you to think about how do you actually analyze a trading range

using tape reading.

you know what would be the tape reading techniques that we already started in

this course since session number one that we could utilize

um in our analysis so here we go 30 seconds

answer in the questions box

all

right so as i'm looking at this

accumulation accumulation accumulation accumulation accumulation

accumulation distribution accumulation accumulation accumulation distribution

accumulation distribution distribution distribution distribution distribution

accumulation accumulation distribution distribution so I would say that

of you are saying that this is an accumulation okay

Next question.

Well, actually, I have two questions, but I wonder which one I should ask

So, how about this?

Why do you think that, let's say, we're going to start with accumulation because

there were more answers on accumulation. Why do you think that this is

accumulation, guys?

Don't give me anything.

I like the ease of movement on the rallies in the trading range, as well as

supply test in response to the shake on the right, but that's a large move down,

so I'd want to see an upside commitment.

Supply signature, buying tails at the bottom of the range, demand tails,

support, and low volatility.

Spring in phase C just occurred.

smaller price projection between one and two and lower volumes at support level

demand tails behind in the value zone more time at the bottom of the trading

range uh spread looks like demand in the low end of the value zone demand

tails okay and so on so forth all right okay

well um my second question um would be for those of you who

said that this is a distribution.

What do you guys think? Why do you say that this is a distribution?

Demand bar without continuation.

The wideness spread down. Either moment stays.

in the bottom of the trading range uh trading range is developing under the

significant red bar around january 14th um heavy selling in the value

zone uh price lower part of the trading range no commitment above resistance

huge effort in april with upside intention could not overcome big bar

volume signatures okay so

selling volume not decreasing over the time downward thrust is still big at the

end uh trading at the bottom of the uh most of the time no up thrust high

volume coming off the uh of the highs get up but i mean you'll sell down and

break down potential spring is failing significant bars better to the downside

and so on so forth Okay, well, very interesting. And I see that some

commented on both accumulation and distribution.

Next question.

And, you know, this kind of reminds me a little bit more of the WTC class,

right, where we interact so much.

How do you actually analyze?

I mean, when you look at this chart, my question is going to be, what is the

first thing that you do when you look at the chart?

really quickly don't even think too much about it just tell me structure look at

downswings drawing boxes for reactions first and rallies prior trend and depth

of the automatic reaction seal value zone prior trend volume spike look at

biggest bars major trend and structure contact okay yeah so we are somewhat

uh

Wyckoff annotations overall volatility okay we're somewhat a little bit

everywhere so I'm gonna say this the first thing that I look at is kind of

a big vision I look at the environments

that is the price environments right so or

we could say the context

And the context usually is going to be related to the bias.

So I don't know what the bias is, but I know what the environment is.

How do I know the environment?

Well, I look at the beginning of the chart and I see higher highs, higher

So therefore, this is what?

An uptrend.

Then I see a small distributional range right here.

making a small note here structurally i see a change of behavior something

is behaving differently now and after that change of behavior what environment

do we have a trading range okay what is the second thing

that you look at so let's just say that we now understand we had a previous

uptrend and now we are in the trading trading range what is the next thing

you would want to look at david has been define the wake of price structure

incorrect value zone from permit incorrect phases from rick incorrect

volume bars from leonardo incorrect

volume changes incorrect support and

resistance incorrect character incorrect

not reading the correct answers though guys i'm tricking you a little bit okay

so for those of you who said let's look at the swings you would be correct so

think in terms of like going from a big overview first environmental look right

where you're just saying okay i just want to understand what kind of

we're in are we in the trading range are we in the uptrend to downtrend if we

are in the trading range what was the context before prior to that were we in

the downtrend or were we in the uptrend it seems to be so simplistic but yet you

know unavoidably majority of students are going to make a mistake and going to

go and look at the volume signatures and see what that does and you look at the

volume spikes and right away that attracts your attention you go into the

observation mode then deduction mode and then you create a very subjective view

of the bias based on just that particular volume spike you have to be a

bit more mechanical about the way how you goes and analyze your chart

so point number two i would say look at swings

well obviously um you know uh it's not just

swings

swings down we have to look at both of them right so up and down

and I usually would start with the swings that are in the

direction of the change of behavior because the change of behavior is

the main trend that came before right so this change of behavior is

to the downside and it's

opposite to the uptrend that we had here so therefore i want to look at all of

the downswings so how would we look at the downswings first we want to

notice the distance and this is the material from the first three

sessions on tape reading for those of you who did not have a chance to take

i would highly recommend that because we were discussing foundational principles

as to how we actually interpret our tape reading you know observations so

distance of the swing we want to look also at the volume signature

of the swing and specifically make some kind of deductions as to the supply and

demand signatures we want to also decompose the swing and kind of

parts of the swing but this could come a little bit later on this is not

necessarily

you know have to be done right away we need to understand the volatility of the

swing is it going up or is it going down we also more importantly need to

understand the intention behind the swing and what happens there uh you know

intention being satisfied or not so let's do exactly that so change of

swing what does it show in terms of the distance of the reaction uh are we

increasing the distance of the reaction after the uptrend

yes a

lot is this bullish or bearish more

bearish than bullish i mean like if we still would be in the uptrend we would

not have this type of reaction if we would be Let's say in the

we probably would even have a slightly more condensed,

diminished size in this swing.

I mean, look how from the low, a previous climactic low, where a

has started, we are kind of negating all of the gains here.

So, and for the change of behavior, this is a very important attribute to

understand.

So all gains here are gone.

Is it more bullish or bearish behavior?

More of the bearish behavior.

Okay. On that loss of those gains,

do we have the volume signature confirming that there is a presence of

that there is a presence of supply?

Yeah, how do we see that? Well, in the volume signature itself.

We see this in these two bars.

The first bar is an attempt to upthrust, and yet we are failing, so supply is

increasing, providing the stopping action. And then the second bar, this is

a pure supply.

You know, it's so dominant on that bar. Look at the close, look at the gap, look

at the spread, look at the volume signature. Like, it's supply, supply,

Demand is very weak there.

So, off years, not only on the down bar, on the previous up bar. So, here is

supply coming in, and then there is more supply.

Okay, so that's interesting.

Look at this sequence.

They sold, and then they are selling again.

And is this volume more institutional or retail increase in the volume

signature?

Institutional. So, we're thinking now, wow.

you know, the character of the swing shows its institutional selling, and

institutional selling increases on the change of behavior after the uptrend. So

they're selling their positions.

So at this point, I would be thinking right away that this is going to be a

to the downside for us, and this is important. Again, this is where, you

people make mistakes.

To be confirmed,

or to fail.

Why is this important?

Well, because there are trading ranges where the bias could change.

The profit taking or selling at the beginning of the trading

range, specifically on the change of behavior and in the first parts of phase

and phase B, could be distributional.

I mean, literally, people could be selling their positions.

And then trading range unfolds, something happens, something changes,

there is a pickup in absorption of the supply, and then it becomes a

reaccumulation. There are, you know, those type of complex trading ranges

could happen.

So you always need to think that if in phase A you have defined the bias,

you gave it, you know, a certain definition, that needs to be confirmed

failed. It cannot be binary.

or it's a distribution and that's it we are done we're not done yet we need to

figure out you know what what's happening next okay so i'm gonna come

uh to the twin analysis in a second but what do you think is the third step for

us in our analysis uh joey is asking

how do you know that it's institutional selling versus retail

Well, again, I'm kind of heavily promoting here WTC course because this

material that we discussed there. But, Joey, look at the volume signature on

that change of behavior move down.

What does it tell you? It looks like that volume signature is the largest,

highest volume from the beginning of the chart. So when it's going to happen,

you're going to start thinking.

Well, could the retail traders actually provide so much selling at this spot?

Probably not. And usually, generally, we would be thinking that, you know, it's

the institutions that create that big, huge volume rather than retail.

Good question.

Okay, so let's come back to the next question. What is the next thing that we

would be thinking about?

David is saying...

Compare analogs with each other, but what are we comparing, David?

Are we comparing the swings?

Are we comparing the bars? Are we comparing specific structures?

What about the slope and intensity of the automatic reaction from Brian?

Does this determine the bias?

Actually from John.

Yeah, very good question, John. Could we address this in the practicum rather

than here?

Yeah? Okay, effort versus result from Ryan doing analog range bar by bar.

I would say bar by bar.

Because a bar by bar is going to give us some kind of, you know, indication of

the importance of the specific bars over other bars.

So we are going to say that we're going to have important

bars.

that uh creates some kind of levels right those are going to be levels of

selling and buying you could think of this as a resistance and the support um

i don't have any problem with this but the meaning is slightly different you

know we could have the swing define the actual support and the resistance but we

could have specific bars that are going to be extra really important bars to

overcome or you know to fail um we also gonna analog

those bars and we also gonna look at the latest price

action uh or bar to bar price action

and for what reason what what would we

want to conclude in the latest price bar by bar action.

David is saying, timing, yes, but there is something else.

Effort versus result, intention, yeah, Leonardo, close to that.

Availability of the supply, final phase, phase C, bullish or bearish behavior

for open call.

uh yeah so we want to have some kind of uh predictions as to the next short

-term move is it going to be up or down and

let's say in this position right here if the next short -term move based on the

bar analysis is down then we could think about the structure and we can think

about the bias prior to that and everything should kind of come together

all right so i'm gonna use just one definition here i wanna look at the

important bars right now so what is the most important bar on this chart do you

guys think

april

25th no

february the 20th

December 17th? No.

March 13th?

No.

January 28th, January 20th, January 19th?

Yes.

This is the most important bar on this chart.

Well, obviously, next question. Why is it important?

why is this the most important bar on this chart changes the character correct

big range big volume correct biggest spread correct big volume and spread

for the resistance level in an institutional selling that sets the tone

trading range correct last selling um late selling uh

feel presence that commits below significant level institutional selling

This is the most important bar, and you want to understand the levels of this

bar.

So now that you have the change of behavior that is

showing us some bearishness, and you have this bar and the

level, so this is your resistance, this is your support, you want to understand

how the price behaves around that.

Okay, let's do that. I'm going to clean this up.

Again, I'm going to highlight this bar.

I'm going to highlight this level.

Okay, so now we can talk about the upswing. Because it's very easy, once

you're thinking that the bias here, let me change the color.

If you think that the bias here is

down at this point, again, to be confirmed, this

is what we're doing with upswings.

We want to confirm that there is a failure on the upswings to overcome

this important level where the CEO, the big institutions have sold.

Okay, so rally number one.

What is the result of rally number one?

It has failed, correct?

So what's the bias at this point?

If we have failed, then still the bias is going to be bearish, as it was

by the change of behavior.

Rally number two.

Failed again.

The bias stays the same.

Rally number three. Very interesting rally.

I wonder what you're going to say here.

Is it a failure?

Or is this commitment above?

Commit above. Close, but failed.

Failure. Fail.

Bearish. Failure. Failure. Commit above.

Failure. No follow -through, so failure.

yeah so think about the level you know of commitment that we need

to do you could definitely look at the previous intermediate levels of

resistance that were developed within the trading range and phase B could

be overcome and the structure could still be bearish yes absolutely when

that happen It's in the attempt to create some kind of upthrust or

And we know, again, from WTC1, that in the distributional formation, we're

to see two points of excitement by weak hands. The first point of excitement by

weak hand is going to come where?

On the climactic run. The second one is going to come where, guys? You know, my

students, so just let me know.

quickly okay up thrust

so here it is so either up thrust or

attempt to up thrust

and this will define phase

c for the distribution do we have a second point of excitement on this rally

number three

How would we characterize that excitement?

So if we would look at the first point of excitement, this is where the price

just running away.

And weak hands are seeing this. And this is the moment in the price cycle where

the weak hands are actually excited and they are making money.

That's what emotionally creates for them kind of like a trap to

go and buy at the lows of the distributional structure because

it's just there's too much excitement that they've made uh you know the money

before okay so but characteristically big large spread increase

going into the resistance or overcoming the resistance temporarily and also

having you know quite a lot of demand behind it this seems to be maybe

on earnings or something like this but did we overcome the level

of the commitment on this selling bar.

No, we have not. Even if we touch this, it doesn't matter.

We need to see the actual close above 45, above the high

of that bar.

And actually, this is not even the end of it.

This is the true range of this bar.

So here is the cluster that we need to overcome.

When you look at the cluster, most likely, you see how the failure happens

if it happens on the highest volume signature what could we say about that

volume signature yes there is an increase of the demand but do we have an

increase of the supply here absolutely yeah so that guys is from the

first session on tape reading so you should know this and what does it mean

supply is increasing

What could we expect after that?

We have a sequence.

Go with the sequence. Stop in action.

Change of behavior, which could be local.

Reversal. In this sequence, I refer again to the WTC course.

Either reversal or a potential trading range.

But stops changes behavior.

if this would be a breakout we would be thinking uh for instance could it break

out react and then continue up could it break out react and

then continue up instead what happens all of the gains of this particular bar

are being negated and then this bar acts as a confirmation that

supply that came on this big bar is actually distributional quality supply

this confirm our bearish bias since the change of behavior

yeah so the story unfolds right the wyckoff story

from right to left okay so if supply came in and they sold again so they sold

um they sold first here they sold here then actually

let me take another color so that we would see that so they sold here

then they sold here then they sold a

lot here there were some other interim selling we're not going to be concerned

about that too much but then they sold here so they are selling consistently

know in this zone that we're going to call this value zone so this this this

and this so we see two value selling zones here is one value zone

where they sell and then this is the second zone so first second

what is the result of this late selling on the excitement of weekend

is the result expanding relative to the rallies that

we have within the trading range

Yes, absolutely.

I mean, look at the distance. Let me just kind of redo this a little bit.

What we know about the change of character is that it's going to produce

like this biggest result, and then we're going to go into phase B, where we're

going to have exhaustion.

Exhaustion by both demand and supply.

then we have more selling coming in and that produces the next

change of behavior is it expanding relative to the exhaustion uh

period in the trading range it does what about the character of that expansion

does the spread increase it does is the volume signature increasing relative to

the previous phase b reactions right so

something like this and there is some demand behind this so we need to account

for that so what we're seeing that probably supply even decreased relative

know to the average levels of the supply that we see here so if supply is

decreasing and yet we are making commitments below and we are expanding

would we interpret this action

ease of movement correct so now on the bearish background with the supply

in we have an ease of movement to the downside let's quickly look at the

price action what is the most important bar since let's say this bar in

this period

This is the most important bar.

Why is this important? Because it shows capitulation

after selling has come, and it defines the level

that we need to overcome.

So let's look at bar -by -bar analysis now from this point on.

So, climactic action.

We have some demand behind it.

If this is the bearish scenario, which we think it is, then most likely this

demand is the demand from weak hands.

The weak hands demand is not going to allow, you know, to push the

price through the level where, you know, we have a commitment to the upside.

Do we have on the first attempt a successful breakout?

uh above that level no okay how

about a second attempt no and we see how

on the bar by bar basis we have dimension demand characteristics so

demand came in on the increase here now it's dimension and not only that the

upward result is doing what is diminishing as well so we're seeing how

deteriorates in this latest price structure just based on the bar by bar

analysis and then what do we see next the last two bars supply is increasing

locally and we see the ease of movement to the downside bearish or bullish just

in this particular period of course

bearish so and here is the whole story

that's it nothing else to it so if you systematically know how to make

observations if you know how to systematize those observations into the

deductive reasoning that we use with Wyckoff analysis you know the

sequence of how to observe correctly and how to deduct correctly you should be

able to make

fewer mistakes.

It doesn't mean that you're going to be like, wow, you know, Leonardo is saying

this class paid for the whole course.

You're welcome.

And I was thinking, what is it that I'm going to talk to you about?

Okay.

Well, again, you know, especially in the practicum with students, we develop a

lot of techniques and methodologies.

the ways of how we analyze you know how we observe the chart how we deduct it's

very important to understand that skill and i still don't feel that we are fully

there you know that we've you know kind of like have a very uh step -by -step

systematic approach even though i have shown you in this class you know

specifically the steps of what we do right okay so a question very important

question

is the bind that emerges multiple times at the bottom of the trading range

supports the institutions uh from david so here here on

those spikes here as well

here

okay

So one of the things here, what is going on is that, again, think about the CEO

is that this is the mistake that we were taught.

What is happening right now with me and the students, I mean, like where I am as

a teacher, is that I'm realizing that I'm teaching you certain

principles that were taught to us in the wrong way.

The idea of the distribution was the idea that the CEO is always active, and

the CEO is always present.

And the CEO in the distribution just sells, sells, sells.

And then the CEO buys at the bottom, just to maintain the status quo and to

the prices up.

The picture is much more complex than that.

And when you start understanding what really is going on, you know the wicca

story unfolds in a slightly different way how does it unfold well we have some

selling into the climactic run by the ceo and then ceo sells uh

you know into into the change of behavior what does ceo do after that ceo

nothing literally nothing ceo becomes inactive

And it becomes inactive and it only sells additional portions of the

only at the very opportune times. Like this one right here.

And this will resemble what has come before, what has happened before.

So as you could see, in the area where CO is inactive, something else is going

on. And that's why phase B is the most confusing phase.

As I've mentioned before, there is an exhaustion by sellers because the oil

and becomes inactive.

And then there is an exhaustion by buyers as well because they see the

the bottoms. And this is what those volume spikes are.

And again, another kind of false idea that was instilled into us before is

that the weak hands are retail hands. That's not correct.

That's absolutely incorrect.

Retail hands could be strong hands, and institutional hands could be weak hands.

I'm working with institutional clients right now, and I see where they are weak

hands and where they are strong hands.

Institutions are not automatically CO.

Institutions are not automatically strong hands.

If you take this away from your vocabulary of, you know, WICA

concepts, you know, the interpretation becomes a little bit easier.

So what happens here is that during the period of the inactivity exhaustion of

the demand and the supply at the same time, we usually go into some kind of

formations that resolve in the direction of the weak hands first, and then

because of that, movement and liquidity event CEO comes in

and sells more becomes active for a small period of time and that

pushes price down again and then obviously we can't just you know fall

let's go to the next one this one we're gonna do much faster 30 seconds

Again, I want you to think about what we've done before. Do not do, you know,

the work that is going to be like your first emotional reaction to what you

This is going to be incorrect.

And this will upset me.

Because we just went through this. Go through this in the same way how we've

done it just in the previous slide.

Look at the environments first.

Then pick up the...

the swing analysis then go into the bar by bar analysis

create the Wyckoff story from the right to the left

I'll give you more time

right your answers

let's

go through them accumulation accumulation distribution distribution

accumulation accumulation distribution accumulation accumulation accumulation

accumulation accumulation distribution distribution all right

i think that as a group we did much better so let's gonna let's go through

quickly right um first environment what is the environment

here or different types of environments we start with the obvious

downtrend

we have what is this

change

of behavior okay the next reaction confirms

a change of character into what environment from the downtrend

into a trading range correct

so these are the environmental things for us here downtrend change of behavior

change of character pregnant second

thing swing okay how about this we're gonna go opposite to

what we said before we said that the first swing that you want to look is the

swing of the change of behavior and you could do this you know we could start

with this but i think the more telling story here is in the downswing so let's

look at the downswing first what could you say about this

sequence of downswings

and in the

practical what we do with uh with our students is we've developed this idea of

flash card right

One idea that could bring you to the buy solution, and I always talk about

being efficient with your analysis, being optimal in your trading.

There are a lot of those kind of points.

But a flash card, just looking at the down swings, could you define the bias?

Okay, let's see what you guys are saying.

Reducing, slower.

less volatility volatility reducing getting more bullish drop in volatility

decreasing spread weak inclination angles uh less volatility from one to

less volatile smaller spread uh smaller candle spread higher high um i think

this is higher lows um entering at point number four okay yeah

so uh first observation

definitely volatility, the down volatility, is diminishing throughout

of these four swings to the downside.

We're also seeing that the downward spread, so those individual spreads,

this spread, look at this spread, look at this spread.

Look now at maybe like what? What's the biggest spread, let's say, in this swing

right here to the downside?

maybe this maybe this maybe this but nothing of the kind of what we've seen

before in the potential you know uh phase a b and then also in the downtrend

what about the uh down spreads here one two like

they are even smaller than on swing number three there is really nothing

so i would just put something like this okay then the

extension of the swing of the downward swing what is happening with the

extension of the swing so obviously downtrend has the largest extension of

downswing what happens on the second swing down um this is still pretty big

you know it stops at the support so shows that change of character and what

about number three it expands but is it really that big as the downtrend itself

no

And then number four is just a very, very small swing.

So there may be swing characteristics.

What else? What about the volume signature? So here you have to be a

more proactive.

And then you're going to look at, let's just say this volume signature.

That's number one.

Number two.

Number three.

before so what happens with the volume

it's

not as linear as you think here because there is one small bump again in

an answer like this it went down does not really reflect the whole story

robot saying three is higher

So it's higher than 2. So we need to notice those things.

So from 1 to 2, we have, well, maybe like the same effort. So

2 is effort is the same, but yet result to the downside is

so much less because we're making this low that is also close to the climactic

low. So therefore, that shows what? Bullishness or bearishness?

a rally from here okay so then from two to three we see that supply is actually

increasing okay so that's very interesting supply is increasing but yet

relative you know what's the character of the move down relative to swing

two the texture I call this a texture right bullish or bearish

laborious to the downside so more of the bullish texture right so we notice this

and that comes from the increased effort to push the price down and we are

making a high low on the texture of the reaction that looks bullish with the

diminished spread and so on so forth bullish or bearish effort is increasing

push the price down and yet we cannot do this so

definitely foolish okay and then the easy part from three to

four supply diminishes significantly duration diminishes significantly

higher low the downswing is so much less than anything that we've seen before

foolish just a single

idea

could bring you to the correct solution of the bias.

Okay, well, that's just that.

But we could definitely look at this from a different perspective. We could

start with the change of behavior swing and just say, okay, well, this adjusted

the trading range.

How about other swings to the upside?

Okay, so two definitely an expansion of the result.

It's a really good expansion because we overcome and we stay a lot of the time

in the upper part of the trading range.

Bullish or bearish?

Bullish.

Bullish.

But the volume signature does not confirm a breakout.

suggesting that we're going to have some kind of reaction.

We already looked at the reaction. It has bullish characteristics.

So what happens after the downward result diminishes in character?

We go up.

Do we have some buying behind it as we go up?

we still have some buying that brings us you know to the level of the previous

value zone this is the value zone right here it brings us up there and

it brings us on all the dimension supply characteristics and then supply stays

flat so in this whole area right here supply is poor and it can't

really produce anything i mean like look at this reaction look at this reaction

look at this reaction look at this reaction this one this one this one i

this is not impressive at all so supply is four and you know they bought in

um so we would be expecting here that uh with all of the rallies that we see

that there's going to be some kind of uh continuation now a much more

interesting question to me after we confirm a bullish bias here how would

price move up i mean what would be the character of the move and this is

something that i'm going to leave for your imagination to think about

that again in the practicum we practice a lot so let's see what happens

delta and obviously look at the character we travel up

quickly why do we do that why do

you guys think that the price moved up quickly

yeah

it's all a function of the supply okay um

where are we 420 so uh by the way uh

uh joe is asking what makes it a value zone um

So again, you know, it's kind of like a long explanation, so my suggestion would

be just, you know, you guys sign up for the course and then we'll talk about

this.

And I apologize that, you know, I'm kind of very abrupt here, but we just don't

have a lot of time.

Alex is asking, bias games show the full Wyckoff story before a move, but how

would we know in real time where we're expecting this move? I mean, how do we

know that accumulation or distribution is really complete?

well again you know alex you know as you know we always discuss a couple of

things you know actually three things right so and i gave you guys this

definition this is not the original like of at all this is just uh adaptation

interpretation by me uh we want to bias and usually people are only concerned

about the bias uh more sophisticated traders are always going to be concerned

about the timing but as uh you know for us in the wtc course the character of

the mode is extremely important because it defines the way of how we trade those

instruments how we pick up the time frame to do that

and how we also leverage that decision

and that goes a little bit more

more into the tactics and so on, so forth.

Hamid is asking, do we have a make -up with David? Yeah, as I explained, you

guys, we fully expect that David's going to come back and have, you know, two

more sessions and conclude this. So, bias game, you could play our bias game

the weekly basis on Twitter at WyckoffAnalysis handle or go to

WyckoffAnalytics .com and it's... so easy let me just quickly show you this

is the exercise that you need to do you know if not each day then at least each

week here's our website go to the bias game it's on the top navigational

panel right here so here's our latest bias game um

and what i like about the way how we constructed this page is that You could

look at the chart. You could print it out.

Do your analysis first.

Don't slack off. Don't try to go and in a second look at this and decide, oh,

I think this is it. And then look at the answer.

This would be the most unfavorable way of learning

this material.

So once you made your analysis,

accumulation or distribution what is this by the way

what

do you guys think

i

want to see other names i want to i i know that you guys you know the

guys you guys went through this so you know

Okay, what do you guys think?

If this would be a flashcard, what is like one idea here that you could catch

right away and you could decide it? What if I highlight this idea?

What if I just say, look only at this?

Is this an accumulation or is this a distribution?

Okay, majority of you are saying, accumulation well let's check so what

is you press accumulation and indeed it is accumulation so you could have two

things here um you see how the people on twitter voted for this so 65 voted for

accumulation and then you also could uh go through the solution you know or

through the whole wiker story this is something that what we've just been

with the first youtube bias games

And, you know, you could look at the labeling, you could look at the Wyckoff

story, you could look at the, you know, whatever analysis we're putting on here.

And this is the work of so many people, by the way, you know.

A single bias game has its own, you know, story of creation.

So we usually have one, two, three, four, about four people who's going to

somehow remotely...

involved in the bias game so quite the process on the weekly basis that we go

through okay let's come back to our slides and so what

I want to do right now we are at 425 so let's keep the next

exercise you know this is something that you could actually see and we're gonna

do this with David we're gonna do this with William as well I'm going to become

a student, and they're going to put the chart in front of me, and we're going to

go into this action sequence where I will be forced to make

some calls as we go along.

So this was the exercise, but because we don't have time, why don't we just look

at the market, right? Is that a good plan?

And obviously, guys, I'm going to repeat myself here.

You know, we'll figure out what's happening with David.

We'll inform you.

And then that information will come probably on Monday. We'll make that

Monday, Tuesday as to what's going to happen next.

If David cannot make it next Thursday, then I'm going to ask William to come

possibly, you know, start his series right away.

And then, you know, if William has his own, you know, family things going on,

we can't get William, then I'm just going to have, you know, one more

session. Then we'll see where, you know, we're going to be. But it is what it

is. You know, I'm not even apologizing because it's life, you know, and, you

know, it should be all understandable.

Will the bonus session be available afterwards?

also yes of course david so it is available to all of you those who are

attending you know series two who signed up for the whole course uh so this is

uh we're not gonna charge you for this session this is just you know again life

happens and you have to deal with this all right guys so let me ask you these

questions and because we don't have a lot of time i'm gonna ask you specific

questions

and we're gonna go through the analysis with your help question number one what

is the long -term trend

if

somebody's gonna say down right now i'm just gonna you know unplug right now

okay and everybody's up up up yes the trend is up

and we always have to start here we always have to start with an idea of a

-term environment right so we are in the trend we are in the uptrend what is

the intermediate trend and

here we could differ we could say somebody might say like well we are in

trading range and i actually don't mind this answer because if there is some

kind of If this is an intelligent answer, then I understand that people

looking at this period of time and they're seeing how the price

around the mean and so on and so forth.

Also, I would accept a different answer. I would be thinking that we are

probably looking into swings like this.

One swing, second swing, third swing.

so by this the intermediate picture here is the trading range as well uh okay

what is the short -term threat

and by a short

-term trend i mean now the swings like this right so here

we are up so we have

Long term up.

Intermediate. We are in the trading range.

And short term is still up.

Why the short term is still up? Why is it not? I mean, like, didn't we have

supply coming in here?

Didn't we have today the bar that also, you know, was the most negative bar, you

know, after that supply bar?

Why are we saying that we're still in the uptrend?

not violate support no commitment below significant bar no reversal yes

absolutely so supply came

and my comment on this bar was that well it looks like an up thrust probe

meaning that supply is gonna come but we could potentially hold here And the

only bearish comment was on NASDAQ because of that rotation that we were

observing, right? So it's a very interesting spot if you think, you know,

kind of like complex way at the market where you're looking not just at the

specific bar, but you're looking at the whole market in general and seeing those

rotational patterns develop.

And then you still have to think how each of these themes like value or

or tech or...

you know uh you know reopen economy how do those behave and we're

seeing how the reopening economy is actually holding at least for now and

the tag actually had two bars down to one half of the trading range uh showing

to us the rotation okay now let's go uh even closer

and let's just do a bar by bar analysis let's start with the uh last

climactic action that we have had i'm identifying for you an anchor point

we're going to start our analysis so a big increase in the spread increase in

the supply signature the highest supply signature since you know the latest

attempt to stop the price from moving down

what about the next bar to the next bar so let's say this is a bar number

zero so what about bar number one how do we interpret that

is

this the better bullet bar than what we've had before

so yes all right well uh i would say that it's better

okay why am i saying that it's better what are we comparing this

bar to by the way guys

september

22nd yes so these

two bars right here so this could be our first comparison absolutely uh we are

comparing bar number one to any bars that we have uh

you know in the downswing so the downswing has started here with the

climactic action here into the stopping action so is bar number one better than

these two bars let's say uh minus one and minus two

Yes. So something changes, right? So bar number one has a change of behavior

type of characteristics that comes after the bar that has climactic

characteristics.

So what does it mean from these two bars? What could we expect?

Trading range.

Yeah. So this trading range is going to be on the intraday basis.

Okay. so this was the call right on this bar that you know we are we

are in the structure that is going to change the direction again you know i'm

always early you know it's just going into that phase b rally that i'm always

making that mistake it's not you know and mistake is not the bias mistake the

mistake is more the timing but i mean obviously it's nice to recognize the

early on Okay, so what else? What other comparison could we make here? So

comparison of an up bar to the previous up bars. Okay, what else? What other

comparison could we make?

Context comparison. What about, Iqbal is saying, September 24th.

Okay, September 24th. No, incorrect comparison.

What else?

Where is my analog bar?

to the previous price action that reflects the change of behavior

that's correct this is the bar

okay so why would this be a bar and not the one

that the ball you know showed us why not this bar why why not you know if this

is let's say like let's put it like minus four this is minus three

it showed some demand coming in volume not comparable change of behavior first

attempt yeah france and mike are correct you have to think about the context

right and the structure so if we define bar number zero as the climactic action

then we need to define climactic action prior you know um to the bars that we're

gonna analog so in this move down this is climactic action this bar right here

is the climactic action so the next bar or the rally off the low into the high

here this is a change of behavior so if we would just compare a bar by

bar what could we say about minus four and one we're comparing these two bars

minus four and one which bar is better

probably minus four right

And by the way, somebody is thinking like, well, the rally is better at

one.

Somewhat the same.

Okay, and legitimate question of why. Why bar number one is better than number

four? Well, a larger spread, right? So the upward

spread is better, increasing.

So this means that the price travels a little bit better.

during the day action during the during the session um the clothes are somewhat

the same at the same level so i wouldn't give any advantage here the clothes on

minus four is better just because it's closer to the top um also just thinking

about where the clothes relative to the selling climax bar so this is also

important so bar number one is a little bit better there uh presence of demand a

little bit more demand

and in the case of bar number one so I would give an advantage to

Barnabas one number one okay so with that we're kind of seeing

bullish activity at the stop in action bullish activity at the change of

behavior now we go into phase C this is like

zero one two okay and this is the volume signature

Okay, let's analog that as long as we're doing this. Here's the same bar at the

previous instance. What is acting better?

2 or let's say minus 2?

2. Why is 2 acting better?

slightly higher effort right slightly higher

effort absolutely okay what about the clothes kind of the same right so the

tail of the supply and by the way you know with this supply tail um a slightly

better tail uh supply tail on bar number two so we could say a less

slightly less supply but see how nuance this whole thing is, a slightly less

supply produces what next?

I mean, like if we have increase in the supply, then we have to have some kind

of reaction. So what kind of reaction do we have after bar number two, and what

kind of reaction do we have after bar number minus two?

Better.

Better reaction.

Or rather...

slightly more bullish okay well it's interesting if we have a slightly more

bullish reaction what's the next deduction a for the day

swinha better

rally price up not only price up something much more significant than

right we're talking about the character so a much better rally a more bullish

rally and then we could argue about you know how that bullishness or more

bullishness is going to transpire it's going to transpire as the rally

overcoming the previous high as the rally having much more momentum as the

having much more demand such a small thing

could uh you know flash guard us to

an understanding of how the price is going to move and therefore it could

and construct our trading strategy for the next swing amazing how it

works you know if you apply it correctly okay so uh with that we're thinking

okay phase c in the trading range uh there was a question from david how do

see that okay david again wtc course so There's no time to explain all of the

material in an hour and a half and we're already beyond that.

What happens next?

Bars up where we're seeing what? We're seeing the increase of the momentum.

And if we would be comparing again analog in the way how the price travels

in the same area of the trading range, what could you say about the latest move

up?

movements more bullish urgent bind quicker stronger quicker faster bigger

momentum increase aggression more intense slope yeah

okay so uh more bullish and whatever comes out of

that i guess my question here just out of curiosity if you guys can see

this and understand this why

Why is it more bullish, this rally, than the previous one?

Institutional buying, Hamid is saying.

Hamid, do you think that institutions were not buying here in the previous

instance?

More demand.

Less supply.

Rotation of the market.

Urgent buying.

right so just to answer i mean um institutions are buying and selling

this whole trading range and the reason why i say this is because as i work with

them i see that they're you know we're quite active you know throughout this

whole thing uh so it's all of the function

of the absorption of the supply supply comes in um being observed being

We're seeing that absorption here being observed again, being observed again.

And the less supply is available, the easier it is for the price to move.

So that's what's going on here.

Okay, so as we go up and we overcome this important one half of the trading

range, this bar shows to us that

we're going to hit.

the resistance why how how is that visible to us

closes

above halfway point brian is saying yeah absolutely i mean again we are

comparing a specific price action what is the specific price action right here

in this area it's a breakout right we are breaking out above this important

high that acted out before multiple times how did we break out before

and how we breaking out right now so there is more strength

behind the latest breakout of the same area that is suggestive that not only

we're going to go to this level but most likely we're going to go to the

resistance level and maybe even overcome that judge the market by its own

action that's what wyckoff has said you know i was talking to one

of the you know uh one of the brilliant minds uh trading you know minds

um that is kind of like you know a little bit hidden from public

But there is a lot of knowledge and skill there.

And we were talking about, you know, usually, you know, when

you understand the material, you usually talk concepts. You don't talk, you

know, specificity.

So the concept that we were talking about is that specific statements that

have in life.

There is an understanding, like a logical understanding of what it means.

until you actually experience things, you know, you can't really understand

it really means.

If that makes sense to you guys.

And I'm sure that it does.

So, taking this phrase, judge the market by its own action.

If you commit to that statement alone,

it would be such a humongous step in your Wyckoff analysis development.

Because just think about the whole idea of that statement.

Judge the market by nothing else but

its own action.

What does it mean?

committed saying emotions out well hopefully right we still uh will be

to emotions through you know different ways of looking at the chart i mean like

looking at the extension of the bar that could produce an emotion uh looking at

the volume spike that definitely will produce the emotion the color of the bar

will produce an emotion is it red or is it green

placement of that bar where let's say volume increases also could produce an

emulsion so this is a completely different subject on a much higher level

no time to discuss that so let's come back to the original thought judge the

market by its own action what does it mean everything we need to know is in

price and volume ignore the news what else guys give me more

of looking at that maybe structure feel action and intention okay

i think i think that uh france actually put it nicely together

everything that we need to know is already shown to us

i mean literally i

mean this whole trading range has been shown to us where do you think i

mean this whole uh what two and a half months of the trading range where do you

think that was shown to us on the chart

september

3rd yeah this bar right here this bar and we commented

actually into even the intraday action of this bar i was tweeting it here and

were saying this is a change of behavior that's going to bring us into a trading

range but there were so many other indication of that

climactic run before above the all -time high in the

sign of transmana what would we be conducting a backing up action which is

trading range

a backup action could develop in multiple ways but the way how supply

right here was completely different so and suggested a prolonged continuation

the trading range action and then we just kind of trading around it right so

um what comes next And let me just go quickly, and then

we're going to stop, because I feel like I'm just being carried away here with

my thoughts.

So if this, this, and this have shown to us

that we're in the trading range, this bar has shown to us the extent of the

potential decline.

We would, at the maximum, go into the body of the previous...

beginning of the swing that's number one we would have the stopping action

somewhere where the stopping action has happened before so you could already

foresee how the price is actually going to travel leg

down leg up into the resistance and then leg down

into the potential target here and why would we go into the lower low

well look at how much supply increase we have had if we would have had just one

day right uh of that action like this one and then there was no more supply

the price structure would be different if we would uh you know stop maybe

somewhere here and then start traveling up in a much more aggressive way then we

would not have that lower low

This low or low defined a low or high that were about to come.

Right?

So everything what we see is kind of precedes what's going to happen next.

And I think that with that, you know, this is a good place for us to stop.

Okay, so what do we see in the latest price action? Supply has come. We are

still in the up thrust.

And we are holding here, but we cannot fail here.

We really, you know, if we fail, the best failure for us is to one half of

trading range.

So we need to hold here around the resistance and try to kind of creep up a

little bit.

and then go up this would be the most bullish case scenario second bullish

scenario going to one half and then consolidating here and then still going

um i think that with the covet um you know increase and i was looking

through the stats today i haven't looked for a while i think the covet fatigue i

didn't want to look at the numbers uh for a while there um the numbers are

increasing but the specific numbers you know

relative to the previous levels you know are still showing some kind of promise

i think they're going to be shuttered uh going into december and the end of

november so we might have potentially some kind of volatility and again that's

going to be based on what rotation rotation here out of tactic uh to value

rotation here again and rotation here again

So I wonder if on the COVID background, we might have a reaction and then

we're going to rotate again because they're going to take care of that, you

know, with more knowledge, with the current vaccine, with more rules on

engagement and so on and so forth. So we're in a much better place now,

even though the numbers are much higher than we were back in february and march

where nobody knew what to do and everything was kind of like stolen we

could potentially even have a scenario where on the federal level

the businesses are going to be open economy is going to be open and then on

local state and municipal levels we're going to have local spots where we have

lockdowns so in the u .s i mean obviously in europe it's a different

so uh we'll have to see volatility could come unexpectedly you know from all of

those news but so far we're still thinking long -term bullish intermediate

trading range and then a short term what kind of resolution we're going to have

out of this trading range Okay, guys, I think with this, this is it. And it

wasn't planning to go for two hours, but that's how it happened.

So, again, we are really appreciative of your understanding of the

conditions that David is in right now.

David will come back. We are praying. We are sending him our positive thoughts

for the full recovery.

We are standing by.

This is what we're doing right now. We plan for him to come back and to finish

those sessions and do whatever he always does, you know, whether daily reports

or sessions with you guys, you know, or classes like this.

We're thinking about him.

Meanwhile, my call for you is go back to the

previous sessions, re -listen to them, re -watch them, make notes, practice.

I've shown you the bias games. We have 70 bias games at this point.

You know, you cannot do all of them in one day.

You have to be very, very thorough and qualitative when you do that.

So at least one game per day, maybe two, so that your mind would not go crazy.

Practice. Figure out the way how to add practice time and then...

once you figure out that figure out the way of how systematically be uh

qualitative about your practice and that will be the best all right

guys with this thank you so much uh this session will be posted into the class

page uh and we'll see you next week happy trading