Original subtitles

Hello everyone, today is October 1st, and this is session number four of the

Wyckoff Training Practicum course.

The remaining sessions on the, well, not on the 6th, on the 8th, yeah, I'm

sorry, on the 8th, 15th, 22nd, and 29th.

In the announcements, October special, looking forward to that.

It kind of will make a lot of sense, you know, when it all comes together in

December.

December special is going to be kind of like the

evolution of the material that I've been going through in the last about 10

years or so.

So I'm going to present to you guys the finalized system based on

Wyckoff methodology and price cycle and all of that stuff. And it's going to

encompass a lot of the different players.

So December special is going to be, we're going to build up to that.

And you kind of could sense maybe that, you know, I'm already working on a lot

of material that goes, you know, to that particular, to those particular

sessions.

November special is also going to be interesting with the discussion about

momentum and volume. John and I in October special will be discussing

and hopefully we'll have some volume characteristics there as well.

And October special, I think, also, it's going to be probably two steps,

October and then February or March.

And February or March is going to be more advanced, but you will have to go

through the first one in order to go to the second one. So I'm looking forward

to all of those.

Today, what are we discussing?

Okay, I didn't correct this, so we're not going to stay on significant bar

today. We're going to discuss kind of like two things that are somewhat

as a topic. So we were discussing significant bar analysis and the stop

associated, how we're moving the stop loss based on the significant bar. Today

we're going to talk about volatility and what that plays as a role in how we

manage our position.

From that discussion, we'll jump into the discussions of the trend because

volatility occurs in specific places in the trend, in the price cycle. So we

want to recognize where they occur.

And then we'll have kind of like this exercise on trend identification.

And we'll see where potentially it's going to take us. As usual, buyer's

We'll discuss that.

Oh, boy, that was.

a very interesting one uh we'll uh talk about our anatomy of the trade which is

also extremely interesting i'm actually really grateful that we've picked up

that particular stock at that particular structural point because it's all about

you know how you manage the trade right now and then as always there are some q

a's so we'll go through those stop the recording watch the whole disclaimer

Everything that we've talked about and discussed in these classes is only for

educational purposes.

Okay, well, let's go to our bias game.

I thought that was very interesting.

I actually would like maybe to have a discussion at this point because I think

this is something that we need to stop and discuss a lot.

This is very tricky.

So going through your homeworks, which, by the way, thank you guys for sending

those.

I always go through your bias slides, and I try to understand

the logic which you apply to charts.

And I try to think about why you were thinking that this was, let's say,

accumulation over distribution.

What are those common logical steps that you guys see

on the charts?

And I think that predominantly,

And please agree with me or disagree with me on this.

Predominantly, this is the thought that a lot of you have had.

Looking, and let me just take another color.

Looking at this movement of volume in general and then supply in particular.

So this is the observation that we are making.

And that leads us to an erroneous answer.

Because we're thinking here, well, volume is going down, so supply is

diminishing. And that's true.

But we never fully engage with the opposite side of the effort,

which is demand.

And you might argue here, okay, well, what is happening to the demand here?

we see that as well wouldn't we kind of like see that demand is also diminishing

okay well great so we have a picture

where both supply and demand are diminishing and that diminishes you know

the overall volume signature so then how would we resolve

this dilemma. How would we be dealing with this, guys? I mean, like, what else

would we be looking at in this situation where maybe volume is not that telling?

And I mean overall volume. Do you guys have any thoughts, comments? And let me

just unmute you guys. Just say unmute and let's just kind of discuss this

because I want to hear your thoughts.

As I said, this was probably the most interesting bias game so far, you know,

since the beginning of this semester.

Thoughts? Comments?

Remarks? Questions?

Okay, well I see that Eric is going in the right direction, so let me just see

any other answers before I'll release his answer.

Anything else? What do you guys think? How would we look at this picture when

see this dimension volume signature on both supply and demand?

What else would we be looking for in identification of the bias?

Okay, Simon is saying structure.

Definitely, I mean, like we definitely will be looking at the structure, but

what specifically within the structure Rick is saying, price spread, could be

somewhat confusing.

especially when you think about the supply going down and demand going down,

Rick, right?

So what would that remind you of?

Probably this indecision point where there is a contracting characteristics

the structure.

And we kind of see that also from this structure a little bit, a little bit of

the triangular.

Okay.

All right. Anyone else?

What else?

Okay.

Rami is saying.

Interesting thought, Remy, but in what regard would you be thinking about the

momentum here?

So if the effort diminishes, we would be thinking that momentum would be

diminishing as well.

And if we would look, let's say, at this rally here and compare it to the

previous rallies in the uptrend, we would most definitely say that momentum

diminished, right? Okay, so if you're thinking about the momentum as a

of

how the price moves, then I think you're on the right track there.

So I'm going to say I'm looking at the rallies and reactions and comparing

with others, analogs and congestion with the volume signature.

Look for texture and where CO is active.

All right. Well, let me come back to Eric.

Eric had this comment.

What about results?

versus efforts, or ease of movement up versus down.

And I think that's what it comes down to. I think this is the dilemma that we

are facing as kind of like you go through the initial beginner's

level type of layers of analysis, and then you come to something like this.

How do you make a judgment here? And I think that's the next layer where we're

just basically saying, A common sense definitions,

the ones where we say that the volume confirms the price, they don't work in

this environment.

So what would work in this environment? Well, the way how the price moves

and the intentionality behind it is extremely important, right? So for

looking... On the upside, we had a really good uptrend. Then we had a

good rally.

And then look at the next significant rally that we have.

So we're seeing the deterioration of the demand qualities. With that, obviously,

the momentum is also deteriorating. We also see that in the volume signature,

right? So here's the demand signature on this latest rally.

Here's the demand signature when demand is healthy.

It's either increasing or it's consistent.

So it's either has urgency and therefore you have a lot of gaps, you know,

momentum up, or you have the consistency of the push that suggests that still,

you know, there is some bind behind it.

On the reactions that are...

intermediate kind of like reactions, you have the momentum push that suggests

the sustainability of the overall trend, and that is being confirmed also by the

consistent demand signature.

What do we have on this rally, on this latest rally from January to

July, to June?

laborious move to the upside with a lot of reactions right so we have not had

this type of behavior where there's going to be a reaction after reaction

reaction let me just erase all this so i'm looking at this this and this one

might argue well what about this reactions here i think this is a part of

formation of this reaccumulation uh with its phase c somewhere here and this is

just an up thrust and B.

So it's more of the horizontal structure by itself.

Here we clearly see that there is a trending up channel.

But the way how the price travels up really is concerning.

So therefore our attention goes to the demand and we see that demand is of no

good quality.

Intentionality. We wanted to overcome

this resistance, and we'll talk about this resistance in a second, and do

We want it to stay above it if this is a sign of strength.

So, it's always a situation of the up thrust or a sign of strength.

Okay, so, and then we're failing from here.

Well, what about a situation, you might say, where

this could be phase B, and then this upthrust still in phase B, and then

going into phase C.

Wouldn't then the volume signature work like this?

Well, definitely we could say that, but think about the change of behavior.

And the change of behavior, as I've stated before, is different from a

character.

So a change of behavior could be one

attribute of, let's say, bullish behavior that we should see here.

It could be maybe like a bullish rally in the middle of the trading range that

shows that the demand is in control.

Or it could be a bullish reaction.

And it could tell us that, okay, so demand is in control.

Or a bearish, bullish reaction that would tell us that supply is exhausted

or supply is poor.

Supply could be exhausted for different reasons.

There is an exhaustion from selling and then there is an exhaustion from selling

where they just sell and then they go away and nothing happens.

And I think from that perspective also, from that reasoning, we could also have

another layer of confirmation. So let's kind of follow that logic.

Supply is exhausted.

Why? Well, because they sold into all of this rally. So they sold here.

And obviously, this is a value selling into the strength of the whole rally.

Then the second time they sold was something similar.

And when I was looking at this slide and I was thinking about the description,

of the Wyckoff story, I wasn't really seeing a lot of supply here that would,

let's say, derail us from this trend right here.

That was still in line with the trend. The only bearish characteristic here was

a diminishing up thrust or upward thrust.

So momentum was deteriorating, and there was no really good volume signature at

the end of this move.

So naturally, where would the price come on the reaction?

Into the end of the channel and also into the momentum move that we have had

right here.

So from the volume signature and the way how the price moves, you should detect

an increase of the momentum.

Whenever we have a loss of momentum, but the price continues, usually a

reaction will react to that little price level where momentum still has a lot of

strength. Why? Well, because the value zone is established.

Here it is. And then this is where they would be buying.

So nothing extremely dangerous yet.

Yet there are some signs that, you know, obviously some selling is happening.

And I think this was very telling. So this is where the story changes.

And here we're seeing that the reaction and the way... how it results

itself into a downswing that is increasing in

distance, in distance traveled.

So we have one reaction, we have second reaction, now we have third reaction.

And it's interesting that as result to the downside increases, what kind of

effort it is required

to have that type of extension.

And we're seeing that overall, we probably would be looking at the

of the effort to the downside. So it takes smaller effort to push the price

more to the downside.

So from here, we're concluding that this type of action would be called how, by

the way, guys?

a quick pop quiz so the price moves to the downside more on the diminishing

effort okay simon is saying ease of movement absolutely yes eric is on that

well and so is rick excellent okay ease of movement so we are moving

to the downside with more ease and yet even with that there is some selling and

it's accelerating because we're seeing that

In some instances, we could have this cell in, let's say,

that starts to occur in the reaction at the beginning of the reaction. And then

it kind of like slows down into the end of the reaction. So that tells us that

there is an exhaustion of sellers.

Whatever they are selling, they have sold. There are no more sellers or just

fewer.

And that usually...

provides with an assumption that there's going to be a resumption of the rally.

In a way, this happens here as well. So a lot of supply here, and then on the

next leg to the downside, we're seeing how the price goes to the lower low, how

it did in the first reaction.

But supply level is really low.

So we're thinking there's going to be a rally from here as well.

The third reaction has a different construct.

Look at how supply is increasing with each leg to the downside, which we have

three.

And we'll talk about this today as well. So this is all in line with today's

material. So this is different. This is where supply increases.

Supply increases more.

Supply increases even more. Obviously, demand is coming in here at this point

value.

So we're seeing that not only in the ease of movement, we're seeing that

from the bias to the upside to more of the bearish bias and now to be proven,

you know, to be confirmed or to fail, bearish bias, that is. But we also see

that in the construction of how supply comes in into the market.

All right. Well, we've talked about the rally. So demand is diminishing.

Intention is not fulfilled.

So with that, we're still with the bias to the downside.

And then what happens next?

And we'll talk about some of the complaints here at this point, why the

stops there.

So what happens next?

Demand cannot push the price. significantly higher for the price to

the resistance and to occupy the space above that resistance.

It fails instantly in the authorized manner.

And as we are thinking that selling has occurred here, here,

and then here, there is some here, then because of

the poor demand,

We don't have to have a lot of supply to push the price down.

So it's almost like that we're looking at ease of movement again.

But now that ease of movement is going to happen in the environment where both

supply and demand are kind of exhausted.

And they are less and less and less in the signature.

So whatever prevails is going to be the bias.

And I think that's that next layer for us, you know, and understanding how we

actually deal with the bias determination in the environment where

signature goes down.

It's in the result.

It's in the ease of movement.

All right. So let's see what kind of comments we have here and if that all

sense.

All right.

Okay, let me just see this. Okay, this distribution is a great parallel to a

trade that was available to us in the hourly chart immediate S &P future. So I

agree. When you look at the analogs with the markets, this change

of behavior has happened at the top of the 2018, January 2018

rally, the conclusion, and then February.

2018 low.

Then we had reaccumulation here, absorption, and then there was a very

rally into the upthrust situation.

So this is a really good observation, yes.

Longer swings to the downside, ease of movement, and rallies back up really

struggle. Okay, great. Great comment, Mitri, and great pickup right there.

Eric is saying volume picks up on the last move down.

Yes, we definitely would be seeing this.

And again, you might be thinking here as we thought about this increase in the

supply, right? So not like this, not like this, but more like that.

Right. So if we would take everything, so we were probably doing it like that.

So there is still an increase of the supply as the price goes down. Why is

important, guys?

And, you know, this is something that I'm going to be talking to WTC students

this is going to be extra material added in the cycle on the SWIN analysis.

It's important for us to identify how the SWIN unfolds.

In order for us to understand how the buying or selling happens, is it only

happens at the beginning of the move and then momentum goes away and that buying

and selling goes away?

Or is there acceleration of the bias?

So Eric here is picking up on this.

Eric is hot today. So many great answers.

The increase of the supply pressure comes at the end of the move, like it

happened in January.

So therefore, it suggests that as the price goes down, there are more people,

market participants, who are selling, selling, selling, selling.

They are more willing to depart from their position as the price goes down.

And that's disturbing because if the price would go down, we would probably

our acceleration of this price to the downside of that trend to the downside.

Now, one more comment and then we'll go to the solution.

A couple of the students I had these comments were saying to me

that their preference would be to see some kind of reversal bar.

at the end like the last bar should be a reversal bar that would identify the

next swing to the upside okay well i wasn't really thinking about this um you

know it might have come more unconsciously in this in uh with this

here is your reversal bar here is your commitment to the downside and then this

latest bar reverses Not just that bar, but the three bars before that as well.

What does it mean?

Does it mean that we're going to have a rally here to the upside? Yeah, we

could. We had the reversal. We could probably go one more bar and then

back. That could be also a situation that could unfold.

So the key was the bias game, and that was from the beginning, and that's...

That's how I'm asking my content team to create the initial slides where

we have to figure

out the bias from the data that is given to us.

And this means that you have to go through the whole story from the

the end, and you have to logically create it and construct it.

All right, so let's see the solution.

Here we are, by the way, I'm kind of included, and I think that this is going

be valuable for us as well.

And we have, you know, good data points now, 214 votes last time that we had

had on this particular bias game on Twitter.

57 % have said and stated that this is an accumulation.

And I think that this was a very difficult bias game, so I can't

I can't really say that it wasn't.

I've given you the chart at this point right here, and you could see the whole

downtrend unfolding. That was, of course, very market structure related.

And this stock, particularly with this stock, the difficulty about this stock,

if you think about the market history and what has happened in 2008, the

was already making lower lows.

So the structure was something like this.

So at this point of time, this stock is stronger than the market.

So naturally, for institutional money managers, what are they going to do

in this environment when the market is going down?

They have to be invested in their positions.

naturally be inclined to go into the positions that are outperforming based

relative stress.

And these are kind of like very interesting questions with the money

And it happens not that often in the markets because you have to have that

cyclical big downtrend to be in this type of the situation where the

is holding up.

And then it just collapses.

The most recent example of this was in 2018, where we had that reaction to the

downside. And a lot of the leadership, like Novadir, Apple, looked exactly like

this. There was a tendency to stay in the leadership, and that's what created

that type of structure.

Why is this important?

If we would be thinking about when it happens in this cycle, in the price

we would know that the market was already in the downtrend.

And then we know that this stock was still occupied and populated by

many institutional investors.

Why?

There is...

a relative value for them in this stock at this point of time so i'm not

saying absolute value relative because absolute performance here is just

basically break even but relative to the market you are outperforming so

naturally they would be thinking if we are outperforming our clients are going

to be satisfied even if the stock you know just goes down and the market goes

down even more And that outperformance, especially during the bear markets,

produces influx of new money and increases the assets under measurement.

So naturally, they will be still populating this position, and with that,

will overcrowd this position.

We kind of could see how the institutional volume signature is not

right? So they are just staying.

Some of them, like value investors, got out, and that's what stopped this

movement from further moving up.

This poor rally is just a function of a lot of institutions are crowding this

particular stock and not getting out.

Why is this important? Because when they will, it will collapse fast.

as majority of them will be trying to get out.

And we see that both in the volume signature that increases dramatically.

So this is where institutions are capitulating.

And they are capitulating out of a litter.

And this capitulation, it just happens in the same way. And we'll discuss this.

There's going to be value capitulation first.

That value capitulation is going to be on the way up as the price still goes up

into this trend.

Then there's going to be early capitulation right here, institutional

late institutional capitulation, and then general capitulation.

Both retail and institutions are just getting out no matter what.

And we'll study all of those. Please note that there is really not a lot of

signs of distribution in this area whatsoever.

There are none.

There is really none with an exception of maybe this one here, but I don't even

count that.

There was just exchange of shares here and somebody.

distributed the stock and somebody picked it up.

So obviously just exchange between the strong hands and the weak hands.

So whenever we talk about distribution or distributional structure,

the assumption is that distribution happens throughout the whole structure.

That's not true.

I mean, like the chart does not show us that.

If there is one thing that doesn't fly, it's the chart, right? So we have seen

this from the volume signature. There is no heavy institutional participation

from the beginning of 2008 into August.

The distribution has happened before based on value or over value, and then

distribution happened on the way down.

And we see that some of the institutions were luckier and smarter.

you could see the smartness of money based on their exit. And then some of

were just trend followers and some of them were just weak hands.

All right, let's come back.

Something that I said that produced a lot of comments.

Okay, I'm a bit confused. The last long rally from February to July

is the bias up, but I think that the bias is to the downside

from Simon. Simon, actually we defined, we changed the bias right

here, remember, on this ease of movement, effort diminishes, result

So from here then, The bias is down, and because of the poor rally, then that

confirms the bias to the downside.

In analyzing the chart up to August, could it be assessed that supply in

is less than the supply in May?

Supply in August.

Okay, hold on a second. Which August are we talking about here?

Supply in August.

Simon, what are we talking about?

And the price may go up.

Okay, supply in August, then supply in May.

Okay, supply in August is more, not less.

At least that's how I see it, Simon.

Right, so we're comparing these two.

I don't see that supply is...

Okay,

so this right here, but this is just,

we're kind of like taking this out

of context, Simon, I think, because we're looking, what are you looking at?

You're looking at a part one of the reaction in the uptrend, and then you're

just taking kind of like the last leg to the downside.

That doesn't really make sense.

If you're comparing something, you have to compare apples to apples, right? So

therefore, like one reaction to another reaction or one rally to another rally.

So let's go to another question.

Can you explain how you drew the trading range?

Sure.

Okay, so that also was very interesting because...

The question here was, where did change of character has happened?

We can't really say that this is a change of character relative to the

reaction. And sometimes it happens like this, that whenever we have

a leadership, there are different ways of how leadership is being distributed.

This is just one of the ways. This is where value investors are distributing

into the strength.

And that kind of... creates a smaller distributional range right here that has

its own structure, phase A, B, C, and then this causality,

this small causality produces the first initial move to the downside.

And that first initial move to the downside is gonna be our change of

our true change of character.

If that's a change of character, then at the low you're gonna have the automatic

reaction, and then at the high you're gonna have a buy -in climax.

That defines

the levels of the support and the resistance.

So the only thing that I've changed here for these two lines is really just the

slope.

Slope here, I'm just looking at as many points of touching as possible on the

resistance, that's number one.

And support, I'm just seeing that there was this high or low tendency.

And I'm just using that for, in this particular case. You could have done it

like this, which would catch this area so nicely, would not catch this.

So that's how I've done this.

All right.

Another question.

I recall, Dmitry, in the previous webinar, advising of a high -level view

chart. Would it be fair to say this was distribution as the price is at the top

half of the trillion range with increasing high volume of the top?

Well, you could potentially think about it this way.

Now, if it helps to identify that. So what is it that we're doing?

Okay, well, think about, again, Two forces, and I'm still trying to come up

the more kind of evident analogy on this.

So imagine two forces. One is the force of buyers,

and they are leading this trend.

And then another force is, let's say, value sellers.

So as the price goes up and the bar is pushing the price up, we see this

from volume signature and how the price reacts.

The value investor says, okay, well, at this point, this is the value point for

me.

And this value point suggests that I have to take profits.

Maybe even exit some completely.

So what is the value investor is going to do? It's going to sell into that

strength. That selling increases the volume signature and

temporarily stops the price from moving further up.

So it's almost like a punch to the uptrend.

The uptrend is still very strong.

And therefore, it's still sustainable and it could absorb the supply and move

the price up again.

As the price goes up, the value seller again sees another value point and

sells again.

Another punch.

So think about this maybe like as a boxing, right? So first punch, you know,

boxer gets up, still a lot of strength.

Could we, you know, withstand a good punch?

What's going to happen on the second punch?

Probably less, you know, recovery energy just

because the first punch was quite, you know, sufficient. You know, look at the

volume signature. This is a lot of effort. This is a big punch.

Dmitry is saying, you know, he loves this boxing analogy.

Maybe, yes, maybe boxing.

I would rather... I prefer something non -violent, you know, but, you know, for

this example, I think that the violence, you know, is going to be present.

So again, stop in action.

But then the second punch was such where maybe if the third punch happens,

and even if a smaller or lighter punch happens,

The first two kind of knocked out the uptrend to the point where the third one

is just kind of takes you more down.

And that's where you have that ease of movement.

So you go to, you fall down as a boxer on that third punch, and it wasn't even

that great.

So that tells you that you don't have any legs behind you, right? So

then what do you do? You kind of...

trying to avoid being in trouble by not exerting a lot of energy.

That's what this rally is about. And then you're gradually just going to

collapse and capitulate at some point, and you're going to lose that fight. So

that's how this fight in McDermott was lost by the buyers.

But it's very specific to the leadership characteristics, the way how the

distribution unwinded.

It's also very specific to the overall market at that time.

And that was the challenge as well. It was just this mixture between the market

behind on the background is already going down, and I'm showing you a

stock. So a little bit tricky from that perspective.

Is it distribution during the buying climax range or is it rotational selling

buying? Well, a good question to ask at that point, right? So is

this a rotation between institutions or is this a distribution?

I would say that it's probably both.

Why? Well, because we've seen how the value investor

distributed the stock, but it doesn't mean that other institutions distributed

that stock as well, right? So where did they distribute the stock?

Right here on the way down.

So this is the rest of the institutions.

So therefore, who picked up this site?

Some weak hands.

And weak hands could be both.

retail and institutional hands.

And obviously with this volume signature, institutional hands are

So from that perspective, there is a rotation that we see from

value selling to short

-term institutional, short -term value institutional buying.

And that is weak hands.

So rotation has happened. There was an exchange of shares from strong hands to

weak hands, from strong institutional hands to weak institutional hands.

And then those weak hands are capitulating somewhere to the downside.

All right. All right, guys.

Maybe we need to stop here and just go somewhere else.

Okay, Dmitry, thank you for your comment.

And let's bring up this point maybe in another discussion as well.

All right, great.

Homework, the next bias game.

This one is pretty easy.

So I'd be surprised if we wouldn't have more than 80 % success rate. And by

the way, I still would like you to keep the record for each of the bias games

that you have done, right? So I want you in the percentages, or

you could just say out of 10, five, I guessed correctly, five, I didn't guess

correctly. So I want you to keep that count on. And at the end of the

I want those numbers. So you'll email me those numbers. All right, so this is

the homework.

Good luck with those guys.

And again, I think that this one is going to be extremely easy.

Let's look at the anatomy of the trade. That was a very interesting, not just

couple of days, you know, three, four days.

I thought this comment from Corey was really good.

We were discussing, you know, where SunPower could potentially go.

We're thinking about some kind of reaction after the rally or the rally

out. The rally did not materialize. So Corey was saying that we're expecting

some kind of potential phase C if this is the backing up action, right? So if

this is the range.

So I think that at the point, this is exactly how we would be thinking because

we said that we've experienced a major sign of strength.

and we know that from here we're going to go into a backing up action that is

going to be a major backing up action as well so we know that the duration of

the range is going to increase it's not going to be just this area and then

we're going out we just bought in here with an idea as i think that the class

was communicating at that time that we're going to go through the

And then we're just going to be in this position.

So that was the logic at that time.

And this is actually not the latest price. So let me update this.

Here you go.

Look at that.

And, guys, you have to remind me, where did we have the stop loss?

Did we have the stop loss just below, slightly below this area right here,

somewhere? below 11 or was it below 10?

Did we use two support levels away?

I just don't remember.

Remind me really quickly, between nine and 11, was that, well, 10?

Well, to me, that really doesn't matter that much.

So, I mean, between nine and 11,

where if it's between nine and 11, we are either hit today or we're not hit.

So I'm not sure.

I think, okay.

Eric is saying, I think that we were two support levels away because we were not

moving. Okay, well, let's just say that it's just slightly below 10 and that

we just enter in the first trench. We were not in the position.

And therefore, you know, this is where the stop loss is. Okay, so the stop loss

is not here. That doesn't really mean anything for this position. I mean, like

at this point, what are you going to do?

Are you going to still stay in the position or are you going to get out of

position, scale out? So let's go through the poll first.

And let's see what you guys are thinking about this.

What should we do at this point? Should we close the position? Should we keep

it? And what would be the logic behind keeping that position?

Okay, interesting.

Okay, one more vote.

The more we are voting, the more it is to

the closing of the position. Okay, let's do this.

Let's close the poll.

And please note that the price is actually

at $10 .40 as of today. So the slide that I have

is a little bit outdated.

Okay, so we are somewhere here. here this is the range for today

also a down day all right so what are we saying okay forty percent keep it fifty

percent close it ten percent keep it and sell some um so i would say that

probably this is fifty fifty uh in both cases here to keep um you know still the

majority is saying to close it um okay well uh yeah absolutely i mean like we

definitely just Can't close it, but what's the analysis here? Because

why are we doing this exercise?

This exercise is not constructed

to be in the necessarily winning position all the time.

This exercise is constructed to be in different positions, whether they are

winning or losing positions.

And the key here is to...

kind of soundly understand the logic of how we're handling and managing the

position.

That's what this class is about, tactics, execution, and all that stuff.

So what is it that we're doing?

So the class is saying, let's close it.

Okay, well, I think it makes sense to think about a closure here.

Let me bring some arguments towards this.

Let's say that...

If we've been in this position for some time, there is a lot of sense to take

some profit as we go into a major sign of strength.

So probably we would be thinking that this major sign of strength is going to

have some kind of buying climax characteristics, maybe some testing.

We would be thinking also that a big backing up action, major backing up

could translate into the trading range and then we have our stop loss kind of

like a catastrophic stop loss let's just say that it's just below 10 so we're

very close to that we're heating here and we actually overcame

the support trend line that we've seen on this chart

so we are we just committed below the relative strength is below the moving

average we had a low high here the momentum had such a divergence from the

so we needed to see some kind of expectations of the

price going down at this point so the key for us would be probably to exit on

the way up like on this bar right here on the first test the failure of the

or the failure of the up thrust right here if we are exiting and if

we're profit -taking so exits profit -taking

and then if we are

long -term investors the biggest question that we have

is it a distribution

is this a

and I don't mean late distribution, is this a terminal distribution

where everything what have been accumulated throughout the years in the

have participated in the move to the upside, and now we are done.

So I want to ask you this question, guys.

With everything what we've seen on this chart in the last three months or so,

maybe two months, and especially with this you know last five days move to the

downside are we in the distributional pattern that is the terminal

or is this just a temporary distribution what do you guys think

okay

and i just kind of feel like i have this

I'm leading you to this answer, so everybody's temporary, temporary to the

distribution. Okay.

As a long -term investor, we've accumulated the shares somewhere here,

still as the price was establishing itself on the way up,

probably throughout this period of vertical absorption, which reminds me a

of Feather.

So everything else is the momentum to the upside, some supply that comes in.

So I would say for the long -term investor, you're probably thinking that

anything below $8 where I bought is probably going to be really bad.

else is just going to be volatility, speculation, and so on and so forth. I

don't necessarily see a lot of supply coming in.

It might not be a distributional supply.

We definitely had some value selling on both of the moves to the upside. We see

that. We recognize that supply has increased, and this is the supply that

stopped the price from moving further up, maybe because the stock has made a

freaking times three in less than a year.

So in a lot of the value investors where they have such a great return,

they're going to profit take.

And that's what happens here. And some of them are going to be totally

with this position for the rest of the year.

And they would say, maybe I will come in somewhere later.

I think the key here is just to recognize this buying climax and then to

plan as to what you are doing at this spot.

Because your options are so different. If you're a swing trader,

then you're definitely out.

That's your exit.

If you're a long -term investor, then you have options here. You could

do nothing.

to your position, you could hedge, and you could do the hedge in different

ways, and then you could just take some profits.

There is no sense to add to the position at this point, but there is a lot of

sense to do other things.

I think that the key here is to do those other.

uh two things either hedge or take some profits

uh and you could do actually both you could take some profits let's say

uh you could sell uh let's say like one third to one half

of the position and then for the rest one half of the position you

can hedge

And the way how you hedge, you could, let's say, sell premiums, sell calls.

You could buy puts.

Whatever the strategy you could have. You could also try to figure out and

maybe a stronger candidate at this point in the same group.

And then...

do the spread trade, but this is a little bit more complicated, so spread

trade, buy stronger asset, buy stronger

solar stock, and then

sell SunPower.

That would be your pair trading order.

spread trading.

Let's not think about that. I think that the easiest concepts are going to be

just take the profit or just hedge.

I think that for the long -term investor, hedging is a much better

Why? Because you still have the same type of size if you hedge. And you want

to make sure that on the buying climax, you have that hedge strategy, which

makes your position neutral. And if the stock goes down, then you're not losing

a lot of equity.

This is something that we will be talking about in December.

This is going to be like the culmination of all of this knowledge coming

together. I will literally show you in the price cycle different positions of

where the stock could be and what those positions would mean relative to the

signal.

that we're receiving.

And then we'll talk about specific tactics that will be defined for the

position. So like position number one, position number two, position number

three, and so on and so forth.

So each position will be associated with the specific identification.

And behind this is going to be specific rules and scams to find those

spots.

And then the next layer is going to be tactics.

What kind of strategies we're going to use at the specific spot in the price

cycle. So I'm just talking about specific spot here.

This is the spot that tells us that the long -term uptrend

is...

confirmed by major sign of strength and it needs to be confirmed by the backing

up action still and that we are in the short term overbought condition

at this point, at this buying climax and in this trading range. So therefore,

we're going to expect some kind of change of character.

A change of character comes after the buying climax.

Is this the change of character relative to the previous reactions?

Probably not, right? So it's just a change of character to the last move to

upside.

But this looks more like a change of character. So we're probably gonna have

like a meaningful change of character. Maybe it's gonna stop here. Maybe it's

gonna go even slightly lower to about this area right here. I'm kind of

hoping that we're gonna struggle here so that...

there would be some knowledge coming out of that struggle.

But let's say that if we have that change of character, the price touches

moving average, and then it just rebounds up and then consolidates. And

stay in that consolidation, in that backing up action for quite some time.

So that's what we're trying to do here.

We're trying on the real example, try to go through all of those

price cycle positions.

where we are seeing the emergence of the trend, short term overbought condition,

so therefore a hedge position should be initiated here, or some profit taken.

By the way, my initial position was initiated somewhere here on

this reversal right here, some add -ons on the way up, and then I closed out

over 90 % of my position on this bar right here.

So this was the predominant trade.

Reasons, exactly this, exactly what we've been discussing, you know, the

climax.

So now I'm approaching this exercise as, well, together with the class, we have

this position, we rent it on this bar, and here is our stop loss. This is how

we're managing it, and then we'll find a way how to analyze it.

All right, guys, I think that's it for this segment.

Let me see a comment. The small reaction in late June of 2019

had

less volume than the upthrust in mid -April

of 2018.

The next high reaction in June.

I'm sorry, this one right here.

Oh, you mean this.

Okay, all right, I got you.

Yeah.

Okay, so the question, could that give us the confidence it would not be

distribution, especially when that resistance lines was broken to the

Okay, so something that is being taken from the WTC exercise that we usually go

there.

identification of the supply on the way out and how we go through this level.

This is a very important task because you basically are trying to

gauge whether you're gonna have some kind of continuation of the move

after supply emerges.

And there are quite a few spots like this that we see in the uptrend where

breaks to the upside, supply occurs, and then what do we

expect from this, and how would we interpret this?

So there are quite a few instances here.

I'm sure that this is not all. There are kind of like smaller instances as well.

Let's see, like this one right here, and just some smaller ones, but I don't

think that we need to go through.

all of them. But we're seeing the supply coming in and the shares are being

sold into the strength.

And then what happens after that supply spike?

Reaction. What happens after the supply spike?

Reaction. What happens after the supply spike?

Reaction. What happens after the supply spike?

Reaction. What happens after the supply spark?

spike reaction.

What happens after the supply spike, which is less

than any other supply spikes that we had so far?

Reaction, but horizontal reaction without the continuation to the

If you could see that everywhere we have that continuation to the downside where

We're going down, we're going down, we're going down, we're going down,

going down.

So what happens here is that the sellers still provide the

force, the effort that stops the price from going further up.

And once they sold into this trend, they're not selling anymore. Maybe

selling, you know, like here on the continuation, and then the price

This is the first time in 2019 that we see that change of behavior, not the

change of character, but the change of behavior.

The way how supply comes in is the same way, but it's less of the supply. That's

number one. So the effort is less to resist the uptrend.

That's great because that tells us that supply is exhausted.

There is more chance for the price to go through this level now.

at six dollars and then the price structure itself of the reaction is

it's not uh vertically uh constructed um and then we definitely don't have any

supply uh there so that's a change that happens then the next time supply comes

in as a spike supply actually increases and it's at the higher level it's at

eight dollars now so we are basically tasked in

you know, all of this attempts to go up.

Would we break through that level?

Would we sustain that uptrend?

Would we be able to observe this supply at the higher level now?

And indeed we do. And instead of the vertical reaction, again, we have a

horizontal one.

So we have done the same.

Action at $8 as we did at $6.

Supply came.

The market observed the supply. We reacted more horizontally.

And then the next supply comes.

And also a horizontal structure was just a sign of strength in the middle.

And we're still observing that supply that came right after the test. After

supply comes, you know, we have a successful test.

And then the last one, supply comes at a huge quantity. This is the largest

supply. So here we also will be thinking relative to the magnitude of the

supply. If we're going to have a much larger structure, would the structure

on? Would we have this horizontal structure rather than just reaction to

downside?

And that would be our judgment on the very long, long, long -term trend.

Okay, yes.

good observation there all right guys let's retire from this segment let's

at the time for 11.

okay great all right let's uh jump into the q and a's uh from simon we've been

looking at the point of entry and point of exit using the key wake of events can

we still use wake of to also assist with swing trading, such as when within a

trading range. Would this be simply identifying the climactic actions, for

example?

And we should have a chart here. Okay, so let's go to the chart.

Doesn't really matter what chart we're taking. So let's say we have this sun

power, and we're looking at the consolidation. So the question here is,

The question here is about trading range and how

we would trade it.

Would we be trading it as isolation trades? Absolutely.

So we are thinking about here what?

We're thinking about mean reversion.

which is basically you have the mean and the price deviates around this

mean. And we are in the trading range, so we are in the horizontal structure.

With this, whenever you recognize this environment, you have to go to

oscillators to define the extremes.

And you just basically buying and selling extremes.

Now we have to put our WICAF layer on this as well.

And therefore we'll be thinking about the structure and specifically what

structure phase analysis is gonna be extremely useful.

We would want to understand that once we have experienced a selling climax,

perhaps here.

We could expect some kind of move to the upside, which does not happen right

away, by the way. We have a whole structure, a trading range that belongs

a stop in action.

That's how the price has stopped here, diminishing supply characteristic, and

then a suggestion for the rally.

So what we would be looking for is some kind of short -term oversold condition.

in order for us to create short -term swing trade with the target

at previous resistance.

In this case, the resistance was not well defined. Well, maybe here, and then

obviously on the highs of the preliminary support.

So here we are kind of expecting the price to go into this area.

You are trading this.

Then you define automatic rally high.

And the reversal out of that could be a trade out of the extreme where you're

expecting the price to go to this secondary test.

That would conclude phase A.

Then you could buy it with the expectation that there's going to be a

phase B. In this case, an upthrust action, which was so nice.

So you know that you are here in the extreme overbought condition.

So at the first signs of capitulation, and you could even just think that this

was a capitulation right here. So a trade could be established here. But

for sure, and then on the open of this bar, and then on the continuation here,

you're expecting that the price is going to come down to the level of the

support. And then you're just, again, trading it back and forth, back and

until you recognize the elements of phase C.

And then when you trade phase C, then you just stay in this position.

And that's the key, just to define that.

By the way, look how dramatic this change of character looks now.

It's probably even more dramatic than what we have had here.

This is kind of like the spot that reminds me a little bit of...

the structural way of how the price traveled.

A lot of aggression, volume signature, and then some kind of smaller

range, and then a very quick move to the downside.

So what are we expecting here?

We would be using the same analog, and we would be thinking, if we're going to

have this type of consolidation where the rallies are mediocre, we might

actually have a continuation.

So the long -term investor that was accumulating the shares here, will be

capitulating somewhere here.

The long -term investor would not be capitulating on the first change of

character because it means still nothing to the idea of the long -term trend.

Okay, great.

Next question, do we have an equivalent diagram of the above for the

redistribution that details the points of entry and points of exit?

I will bring this up in the news cycle of the WTC assignment.

And once I have that slide, I will present it here in the practicum. So you

will have this.

And then the comment, Tobias' game is absolutely fantastic. Such a great

exercise to put the theory into practice.

I've been looking at Tobias' game on Twitter and then the solution that you

later on. Yes, I want to point your attention, guys. Do not look at

solution unless you are done with your homework.

because it's the same week that we have the same game.

You have one day head

start on the whole Twitter group, and that's advantages of having a

class on Tuesday.

So whenever you send me your answer, then look at Twitter, and usually the

answer comes on Friday.

On the Twitter feed, I find it a little difficult when scrolling through to

match up the bias gain with the particular solution slide.

Is there a unique identifier that you use to match them up for is

searching on the Twitter feed?

We will think about this.

So, Simon, thank you for this feedback because I actually agree with you.

It is a little bit hard to find.

When you look at the solution, you know, to find the original slide and to find,

like, what did we start with?

So I'll think about that.

This is very interesting. Eric is asking, so do we become mean

reversion traders within the trading range until phase C?

Well, not necessarily.

And again, in December, it kind of will all make sense.

I will put different layers on the price cycle and we'll look at this from

different angles and it will all make sense. But the mean reversion trade will

always be on.

Here's your mean reversion trade that happens in the trading range.

And then this is your mean reversion trade that happens in the uptrend.

What am I doing?

Well, it's the same trade.

It identifies short -term overbought, oversold conditions,

but it's just in a different environment.

So throughout the whole price cycle, there are traders that are just doing

Our goal, and again, in December, I will show you guys what to do and how to do

this. And you kind of could see how that trade unfolded for me, right? So

accumulating somewhere around six and then getting out after the first signs

a buying climax here.

And that's just a tactic that I'm using.

in the in the whole price cycle but we'll talk about how the mean reversion

trades at the specific spots are going to be the trades that we want to do as

well so we'll talk about that

all

right um let's go to our material 420 excellent

Let's talk about the volatility. Specifically, let's think about the

entry and exit, you know, how volatility identifies those for us.

We kind of seen on SunPower a really great example of the volatility.

Volatility, a measurement of change in price over a given period.

So I want to make sure that everybody understands the way how I am applying.

you know, this volatility definition.

A measurement of change in price.

So it doesn't necessarily mean a measurement of change in price that goes

Usually volatility would be associated with increase of price

action to the downside.

And rightfully so. Whenever the price goes down, we have more intensity

people capitulate.

based on fear and panic, and that produces a much

quicker moves to the downside.

But we also could have the same type of exuberance or aggressiveness to the

upside as well.

There are some spots where there is an urgency by institutions to be in the

position, so they are more aggressive in their buying.

And volatility is gonna be

a measurement of that change in price.

It is usually expressed as a percentage and computed as an annualized standard

deviation of the percent of change in daily prices.

Okay, well, this is something that I was drawing with the previous cycle, and

I'm just using this as a slide, so please forgive me for all of these

but it just basically...

a discussion on the stop losses.

And we usually start our discussion with the price stop losses.

We usually would say that we want our stop loss to be, let's say,

a significant bar away, or maybe two significant bars away.

And one of the stop losses is gonna act as a price, and the second stop -loss

is going to act as a time stop -loss. So what's the difference there?

With the price stop -loss, we're basically waiting for the price to hit

that stop -loss, that price, and then we are out.

So for instance, as the price was moving up, we're using this staircase here,

and then it gets us out here.

At the first sign when the price touches that stop loss and that order becomes a

market order and being triggered.

The time stop loss is going to be associated with some kind of timing

tool, timing reference.

So for instance, we could say that if the price goes below this level and at

close, it is below that level at the close of that bar.

Then we are exiting.

And that would be our time stop loss based on the time period identification.

We're also going to have a volatility stop losses. And the first time I heard

about volatility stop losses was from Ed Secorder. So Ed Secorder was at the

time when I first had an opportunity to meet him.

at golden gate uh class and hank was uh you know brought him up for us uh

a very unique trader um a very unique or personality as well

i would say and i think i know him a little bit better that i've talked to a

of people about him and heard a lot of stories

So not going to go into the personality, but let's just think about him being a

trader. So he was one of the first coders in late 1970s, early

1980s, who was coding different money management systems.

The market was different at that time.

The Korean obviously was, you know, with different market ideas. He was very

successful. One of the things that he talked about in that class was how to

out. And volatility stop losses was one of his kind of like favorite subjects to

discuss. What is that volatility stop loss? It's when volatility starts to

increase either to the upside or to the downside.

And it brings us to the overbought condition in the longer trend.

in the trade that we participated.

And once you go into that overthrow overbought condition, your volatility

loss will kick in.

And you would want to tighten that stop loss and still it's gonna be based on

some kind of price reversal.

But you could also use, let's say, volatility from the perspective of how

volume comes in.

as a confirmation and maybe as a confirmation of the reversal itself.

Well, let's look at the volatility in the price cycle.

Actually, let's first identify how we look at the volatility, right? So we

look at the price and we could define the areas where volatility increases,

right? So for instance, on the upside, increase of the volatility.

On the downside, increase of the volatility.

Something like this, right, where we're going to be identifying some extremes

where maybe the price overcomes, you know, regular environment

and regular structural spots where it might go into some oversold or

condition.

How would we catch that?

We could catch this visually. There is no... a reason for us to use any of the

technical analysis tools but if you want to use technical analysis tools

bollinger bands which is based on the

moving average and deviation around that using the standard deviation

we could see how volatility increases and decreases so we would have pockets

where The price moves, volatility increases. We could see how the band is

increasing. The price goes into the consolidation, volatility decreases.

And therefore, this technical analysis dogmatic statement that

after the contraction, expansion will come.

We could think about contraction expansion from different perspective

perspective of the rotation right we could say that during the contraction uh

there is a short -term weak weakness and therefore short -term value that is

being created and with this short -term value then institutions want to go to

that and be buyers once expansion happens that

leads to the

deviation from the mean, and that leads to some kind of extreme, short -term

extreme. The short -term extreme produces the mean reversion trade,

profit taken, and that, in fact, produces some kind of reaction

that leads into the trading range, that leads into the contraction, that leads

into the expansion.

The cycle repeats. It's over and over and over again.

All right, so why are this Keltner channels and Bollinger Bands as tools

important to us? Well, they identify those extremes in different environment,

whether this is environment of the non -trending environment or environment

as a trend.

Let's look at some examples.

3D system, daily chart, Bollinger Bands.

We're thinking about the Wyckoff context here, the trading range.

And as we look at the Bollinger Bands, look what happens.

On the way down, and this was a potential phase C, we have multiple

oversold conditions. But as we go to the long -term support,

this is the oversold condition that we are mostly concerned about.

This is of interest to us. We want to see some kind of... kick off in the

momentum, I'm using the rate of change here, that could bring the price in

such way that would show a different behavior.

So for instance, overcoming the moving average in a significant way and then

staying above it.

Instead, touching it, going down, touching it, going down, touching it,

down, touching it, going down, touching it, going down.

So something different, a change of behavior.

And when we change that behavior,

We want to make sure that we understand how the price behaves around the moving

average, how the price behaves in terms of the volatility, how the price behaves

with the momentum.

And we want to note where those touches happen.

So, for instance, tactically, it's going to be extremely important for us to say

that we could have a touch of the long -term moving average and then...

this moving average will be touched several times and we could have

type of trades from here we could have swing trades

that we know could last

uh for the time frame that we need and then once the price is going to be in a

more short -term weakness position

then we're going to consider this more as the long -term opportunity for us to

go in and to establish the position.

And again, in December, I'm going to go through the whole price cycle. I will

identify for you all of the position spots, and we'll talk about different

tactics and different interpretations. So it will all come together, and that

would be...

kind of like the final product that white analytics is going to have um

what else here question what is obv and how does it

differ from the bone we normally look at on balance volume so we want to

look at the cumulative volume signature where we are calculating the

up and down volume on the updates and down days And that cumulative volume

us, let's say, an increase in the buying activity, where

buy days volume exceeds the down days volume.

And that usually shows you, especially in the original accumulation, the way

accumulation happens.

It's a little bit more problematic, you know, with reaccumulations, as you could

see, you know, if this is a reaccumulation OBV.

line is going to kind of like regress, stay in the trading range, and hopefully

just show you that it's going to go up.

But in the original accumulation, there is a period of time where the trend

emerges.

OPV actually could play a really interesting role.

Well, the same stock, and we're looking at almost the whole price cycle, at

least from the beginning.

This is our phase C in the big accumulation.

And we said that we want to note the places where the price is going to have

very short -term oversold condition that is going to be significant, something

like this. And these are going to be our long -term investment add -ons.

So a long -term investor is going to be interested in this type of

opportunities. Where else do they come?

Well, here it is.

Here it is again.

Here it is again.

Here it is again.

And throughout all of these opportunities, whether you're coming in

position as a long -term investor or you've been staying in this position for

quite some time, please note 2009 to 2014, five years.

So that's a pretty sustainable uptrend.

extremely interesting spots to us.

And again, in December, we will talk about what kind of trades are the best

trades. And if you're thinking about maybe even long -term trades, I will

you right away that those are not necessarily going to be the best, most

optimal, most efficient trades if we were to extract the maximum amount of

using all of the instruments that are available to us. And I will tell you the

reason why.

But at this level, we want just to notice where we would be

aggressive buyers in this price cycle as long -term investors.

So short -term weakness close to the technical oversold

condition.

There's going to be some other places where we will originate swing

positions.

Those are going to be minor reactions.

These are the minor reactions.

So this is a major reaction.

Major reaction, major reaction, and I would say even probably this is a major

reaction. This major reaction.

This definitely is a major reaction and this major.

So one, two, three, four, five.

We'll talk about three. This kind of like is a special case for us.

Everything else, and I probably would take this one as well.

So three.

Let's just label it like this.

Three, four, five.

So we have.

Five major reactions in this cycle.

Those are great spots for the long -term investor.

We also have quite a few minor reactions, right? So these are the

are going to be maybe into the middle of the channel.

These are reactions that are going to come in the trend between two major

reactions.

And they will always have some kind of swing opportunities for us

that are more short -term oriented swing opportunities.

And it's going to be easy for us to trade those reactions once we

you know, how they occur, where they occur position -wise, you know, and how

trade them. This is where the Wyckoff layer would come. This is where the

volume.

uh spread analysis would come time in phase in and so on so forth so you kind

already see where i'm going with this so there's going to be quite a few

minor reactions

minus swing opportunities

Those are all tactics. This is the way how we would be trading this whole price

cycle. Okay, so then we're definitely also going to have some of the

momentum trades.

We usually would identify those in two spots, and I'll show you today which

we would be thinking about.

I'm going to try.

different color here this is also okay so momentum off the bottom

off the bottom into the climax off the bottom into the climax off the bottom

into the climax those are the two momentum spots for us

we'll

talk in a second why You know, it happens this way. Why off the bottom and

the climax? And what's in between?

And then we're also going to have the trades that are going to be mean

trades.

Mean reversion trades could be different for us, right? So we could be very

short -term oriented for the mean reversion trade. Or we could be long

oriented.

or rather longer term oriented, where this mean reversion trade is

gonna happen into the strength with the short term elements indicating

that there is a temporary distribution on the profit taken,

is taking place, and you could either have a trade at those spots if you're

aggressive,

I've been conducting quite a few of this lately.

I've shown you two of those trades and one in gold where I'm campaigning gold

and yet I'm hedging at those spots.

And then TLT the bonds, kind of the same trade, the same idea.

So we will specifically identify the spots

in the price cycle where this overbought condition happens, and that would

trigger a specific strategy to take place.

So at the end of this strategy, which I'm calling right now the system, I

have the name, so if you have the name, that would be great. Come up with the

name. We're going to have multiple strategies

that is running at the same time.

long -term strategy that is going to have different tactics, swing strategy

that is going to have different tactics as well.

And those are going to have different tactics as to what we

trade at which structural spot and how we trade it.

So by December, all of this is going to be...

kind of fully rebuilt.

And then we'll talk about this spot. So not today, but this is something

different. This is not a minor or major reaction.

This is a full -blown mid -cycle reaccumulation. So we'll talk about this

as well.

Let's jump to the next slide, a number of slides.

Characteristics of trends. This is the material that I presented in the bow for

those of you who have not attended.

This is just an abbreviated version of the characteristics of the trends.

It will become more apparent of why we're using this when everything will

be put together.

Here I just want you to notice the way how the price cycle, the long -term

cycle, develops. We're still in the uptrend, if you can believe it, for

Apple.

And we're still in this huge, huge price cycle of expansion.

We see where institutions got in into this position.

There is no denying that there are different stages of how they were

coming in into this position.

So early accumulation, very aggressive accumulation on the way up,

and then late accumulation.

What are they doing now?

COO is inactive.

What does it mean, by the way, COO is inactive?

Does it mean that the COO does not have a position?

Eric is saying he is neither buying nor selling. That's correct. But my question

is, do they have any shares at this point?

What do you guys think? Mitter is saying, okay, not buying or selling.

Okay, and both of them are saying, yes, they could. Yes, if they haven't

distributed. Well, do you see elements of the distribution yet, Eric, here in

the volume signature or in the price action?

No, no distribution yet.

So therefore, what's the conclusion here?

The conclusion is such that this whole area right here was a prolonged

institutional accumulation of Apple.

And now they're holding this position and they're not getting out.

That's what it means to be inactive.

Inactive meaning not being in the market. Okay, I understand.

That could happen as well, usually in the stock that is going to be abandoned

completely by strong hands, and the price will be

just kind of like floating and fluctuating on smaller speculation

or maybe just weak hands are kind of moving it in a drift.

We see a lot of those stocks, especially in the liquid markets.

usually liquid stocks are going to have some presence, some institutional

presence. But in the liquid stocks, there is an abandonment sometimes by the

and they don't participate.

So that's a different activity.

In this case, they've been extremely active for the number of years. They've

in into this position. By the way, we are thinking about this long, long -term

cycle. They got in here and then on the momentum, they got in.

all the way up. So this whole move from 2003 to 2007 is just accumulation on the

way up.

And then they started adding to the position on the next move up. And then

the last two or three legs up, they are not really participating that much.

And that's where momentum has been lost for Apple. And if Apple...

goes down it should come to the area where lastly there was some elements of

accumulation not in the trading range but on the way up and this is this you

know uh move right here and it's uh slightly below 100 so

like on the level of 2015 trading range right here 2016.

um

It would be interesting to see that, but we have to see some kind of elements of

the distribution. We need to see a break to the downside. We need to see an

increase in the supply signature for us to talk about the distribution yet.

Okay, well, let's look at the characteristics.

How does price move?

Like all of these moves, all of these legs up, do they have similar

characteristics? I was going through different stocks and doing this visual

backtesting.

definitely there are certain ideas, certain textures, certain

actions that come out and you see them right away.

So what are they?

There are periods of absorption where the price kind of, let's say, has a

movement in the direction of the uptrend, and yet, let's say, the volume

signature goes down.

You could also see the absorption, like, you know, it could be a horizontal

absorption. You could also see the absorption with somewhat of the

vertical absorption type of action where the volume signature increases, there

are multiple reactions, and every time the price reacts, then it goes up again

and then it goes down again. So this laborious move to the upside where there

not a lot of momentum just suggests,

that there is a lot of absorption that is happening as the price travels up.

Then we also will have elements of the

momentum in that trend. This is where

institutions are gonna be getting into this position aggressively.

And with that, the price will move aggressively up as well.

So institutions are coming in into this position, our buyers.

And they are aggressive buyers, agro.

Agro buyers.

This usually will move the price really quick.

And then the last phase.

It's going to have some kind of speculative qualities. Why would we have

speculative qualities in the last phase? Well, because supply has been observed.

Then supply has been observed as well in the momentum phase and even more so.

And the price has moved to the next level where supply is not available.

And then in the last move to the upside, imagine that supply has been observed.

What kind of move are we going to have without the presence of the supply or

without a significant presence of the supply?

Most likely, this is going to be a very fast move. This is where swing

strategies are going to be more appropriate.

And we could define the areas in the trend by the

strategies that we could use.

And that's, again, something that... will incorporate into the December

material. Let's look now at examples of the downtrends. Same stock, same price

cycle. Let's look at the downtrends.

They seem also follow the same stages

as an accumulation or they have the same kind of like elements

that are attributed obviously to the distribution here.

Contrarian effort. This is the value investors that are selling into the

strength.

So usually they're going to come in in the last move to the upside into the

climactic action and the changes of character are going to be the first

where they're distributing.

up thrusts um also going to be you know the points where they will be selling

into the strength of the movement uh to the upside

uh those contrarian efforts are gonna stop the price from moving further

up or gonna be attempt to stop the price from moving further up After the value

investor is out of the position, we're going to have some early institutional

capitulation. Those are going to be the money managers that are going to be

very, very smart money managers. They're going to recognize a couple of things.

They're going to recognize that big fish is coming out of the position,

and they're going to also recognize deterioration either of the current

or a break of the trend.

So in the first case, we could see a deterioration as a low or high.

We could see deterioration on the change of character.

And then as the price falls, early institutional

capitulation happens. This is the smart money getting out.

Late institutional capitulation is going to be associated with the continuation

of the deterioration. And usually late institutional capitulation is going to

such where the break of the current environment or

a trend is going to be very obvious.

And why are we talking about all of those things?

Well because if you recognize the characteristics for the late

capitulation, this is where you want your swing trades to happen.

Obviously in this case to the downside.

So you would initiate the trade here, you would also initiate the swing trades

during the general capitulation phase.

General capitulation phase is something that happens

After smart money is out and there is weaker money that is left, whether

institutional or retail, and it's going to be

associated with a general panic.

This is where everybody is giving up on this position.

And we see that in the second example in 2000.

right so obviously associated with the market move but still look at this

general capitulation usually going to be aggressive either in distance or in

character as well as the late institutional capitulation also would be

more aggressive than the change of character from the value cell and also

the early institutional capitulation okay i hope it all makes sense

A couple of questions.

Dmitry is asking, for swing trading, while keeping the bigger picture in

would we use intraday data, four hours or hourly chart, for smaller wake -off

instructions to identify points of entry and exit to swing trade the campaigns?

Dmitry, that's usually how I do this, but I'm always kind of like in front of

the screen, so I can do that.

If you can, I think that daily chart is totally fine as well.

From Simon, does this mean with general capitulation that we wouldn't

necessarily see the down move with increased volume?

What is this, HV, high volume, increased volume?

We usually will see, and we think about the general capitulation as the majority

of the hands that are left are going to capitulate.

So therefore, your volume signature should increase in general.

And then you might have some variations. So for instance, in this capitulation,

even though it's still aggressive, I mean, like look at this area right here.

This is a pretty big decline in a very short period of time.

155 to 50 cents.

Wow. That's a huge decline, and it happens in one year.

Obviously, late capitulation here was much more attractive for a swing trader,

but you would be thinking of a swing trade that's going to have multiple legs

it. You're probably going to have one, two, three legs, which makes a lot of

sense as well.

All right.

So we could see the, we usually on general capitulation would see that high

volume signature assignment and that would identify a number of market

participants getting out of that position.

So I want you just to remember this sequence. Maybe this is the sequence

of smart money or rather the smart money

barometer. of where different market participants are exiting.

Our smartest of them all are gonna be the value investors, and they're gonna

sell into this trend.

Our next smartest group is gonna be early institutional investors that are

capitulate early.

They are not gonna produce a significant change of character, but it will show

on our map that they are selling.

And then, When everything fails in the institutional world and no absolute or

relative return is being given,

late institutional capitulation happens.

And then the weaker hands, the,

I don't want to call them dumber hands, but, you know, still not

as smart bunny are going to move last.

And then they can.

going to capitulate last.

Please note, and this is not a coincidence here as well, after initial

institutional capitulation, what happens next before general

capitulation? We kind of drift, right?

Trying to go up. Why? Well, because the first three

market participants

are inactive here again.

And what does happen here? Why do we have those volume spikes, multiple

spikes? Well, because this is a mean reversion trade in place.

This is all mean reversion, and they're usually going to come at those points of

extreme, either at the top or at the bottom.

CO is inactive. So CO is not the value investor.

CO is not the early investor that's going to get out. CO is not the late

institutional investor.

All of them have made money on those moves.

CO is a composite of these three.

And that's the confusion I think that we kind of had because usually CO would be

associated with strong hands, and this is correct.

But there are different type of institutions that would comprise the CO,

usually CO will be done before the general capitulation happens. And that's

of like that difference. So strong hands,

weak hands.

and then within the strong hands smartest

smart slightly

off of smart something

like this so I like how

inactivity here happens before the general And we see that from the volume

signature as well.

There's nothing that's going on.

All right, great.

Now let's practice this.

Let's go to trends. And specifically what I wanted is, I wanted to go through

the price cycle and look at volatility. And I also wanted to look at the

character of the next move. All right.

Volunteers, maybe this is something that I probably need some help with.

And any stock that you want to discuss that maybe in the last 10 years

had a significant rise and significant fall.

So let's just identify some interesting candidate.

Give me a symbol, maybe a volunteer.

All right, Eric wants to step in, but we still need some kind of symbol.

Hi, Eric.

Are you there?

Eric, are you there?

I can't hear you, so maybe something was the microphone.

Okay, well, guys, think about any of the stock that, let's say, had some kind of

big, big runs.

So how about some of the momentum stocks?

Miners.

well what i meant is you know where we had a move a significant move to the

upside you know was the conclusion okay um not the

most recent moves okay well here is the price cycle that we see here

okay all right

yeah we could use this oh yeah hi eric hi sorry No worries.

I'm always having headphones issues. I have to go in and physically, or not

physically change it, but anyway.

No worries, no worries. Okay, so looking at the whole history of this talk, so

let's kind of, from the historical perspective, try to

identify where we are in the price cycle. What do you think, Eric?

Like at this point right here, where are we in the price cycle?

Well, I guess what's confusing me a little bit is, you know, I don't see a

here for the last 10 years.

We've kind of been, you know, from a relative perspective, going sideways,

really. Okay.

This is a good first step. Okay, so we need to identify, like I'm talking about

position.

here right so i call this mapping we need to find on our map of the

price cycle where are we in the price cycle so we are going to have in the

cycle what we're going to have an accumulation we're going to have a

distribution we're going to have a reaccumulation

redistribution we're going to have also some

minor Corrections on the way up, minor corrections on the way down.

Where are we?

I'm going to say reaccumulation.

Yeah, well, there is no other answer so far.

So we are either in the distribution or we are either in the reaccumulation.

We have had a trading range that lasted for multiple years. We have had a

markup. that has lasted also for multiple years. And then we have had a

range. So we are probably somewhere here.

The reason why we're saying this, well, we're looking at what this is, gold

mining, so extremely bullish bias for the whole group.

And we're thinking that the price could potentially continue with its move to

the upside, especially if the world economy is going to hit some kind of

hard,

we're definitely going to be favoring gold and gold mining stocks as a flight

safety.

So therefore, we are thinking that this is probably a big reaccumulation in the

larger price cycle.

This view could change if the price is going to start behaving differently, but

for now, this is what we're assuming.

Okay, this is where we are now.

Let's think about what has happened before.

I want us to think about certain characteristics that I've discussed,

characteristics, that would

identify specific strategies and specific traits for us.

So let's talk about those traits. We usually would be attracted into this

right here because this is the area of the markup.

area of the trend.

And I'm going to expand this portion,

and then we're going to go through different items on the list here.

could we take another stock, guys?

Actually, no. Let's just do exactly what we...

this and let's say 97 okay so here is

the whole markup and let me just increase maybe the height let's do

okay

slightly better

okay so um

Let's figure out the volatility points.

Where do you think the volatility is going to be the highest for us on this

chart?

Based on what I see?

Yes.

Well, we see volatility highest

as we leave the trading range in the middle of 2005.

And we hit the kind of the buying climax with the volume signature there in

April of 08. Okay, great.

Where else?

And think about the volatility definition, right, guys? So volatility

change measured by the standard deviation, so where DV can, you know,

below the min.

Okay, so here is where deviation has happened in the extreme way.

So we definitely have a lot of volatility to the upside. Okay, where

Would we be thinking then maybe this type of spots as well, where that

So I would probably be thinking maybe like somewhere here at the end of the

climactic run, right? Right, yeah, so April of 2008.

Somewhere here, maybe somewhere here.

Please note that in 98, we have that volatility off the bottom, right?

So we were in the extremely oversold condition, and then we go into the

overbought condition. So every time this happens, Eric, what kind of extreme are

we going to experience here with the rally?

Being probably in the overbought condition?

Yeah. Right, so overbought.

and overbought because we were still in the downtrend, those are overbought

conditions.

Overbought, overbought, overbought, overbought. So even without

placing any type of volatility bands or using a

simple trend line,

something like this and actually I

got okay

let's use another trendline and ever use the reverse trendline to

identify the overbought yes I'm using it right now okay all right absolutely

let's go let's kind of repeat so we

and please don't forget this is logarithmic all right all

right um let's just put it somewhere else

okay

all right so right away

on those volatility spikes

we see the conditions that are overbought conditions.

And that's in this whole markup phase.

So what do we do with this?

Well, as we've discussed, that increase in the volatility suggests that we have

to be much more aggressive with the stop losses.

And we should be also much more aggressive with our profit taking

with hedges as

well. So we would be thinking mean reversion trade,

mean reversion trade, profit taking plus hedge,

profit taking plus hedge, profit taking plus hedge.

What would that do to us, right? Or rather our equity line?

So if we are thinking about this mean reversion trade or a hedge trade, how

would we develop that?

Well, obviously we would be thinking about what comes next after the buying

climax.

A change of character.

And a change of character is going to be associated with automatic reaction.

and increase in the supply signature.

So we could place a trade opposite to our long -term

trade if we're long -term investors, or if we're swing traders, just to get out

and to have a quick swing trade to the downside, let's say.

And those are high probability trades, if you can imagine.

I mean, it's just happened this way that, and

I was thinking,

Maybe in life in general, it's just like there is a norm and then there is a

deviation from the norm.

And the more there is a deviation, the more extreme it is.

And therefore, when you see the extreme, just kind of go in the opposite

direction, a contrarian view at that point of time.

And usually that norm will come to a mean.

And that's what we're having here.

So hedge trade, we don't really need a lot.

We just want to catch that first momentum to the downside and to

equity curve from that point of view. So, and again, we'll talk about this in

December a lot.

So from what I heard you say, basically what you're trying to catch is the

change of behavior into the...

Yes.

Right. For different purposes, right? So we're either in a long -term campaign

and we're hedging, a long -term campaign and we're profit -taking, or we're

swing traders, we're exiting, and we are short -term swing traders, we just want

to play that mean reversion trade.

Okay. So we need to understand who we are.

Absolutely. Okay, so this is on the upside.

Now think about...

the downside once we have an established uptrend.

This is also going to be extremely useful and attractive to us.

How do we look at the long term?

Well, we identify the places of price behavior where the price

spends, let's say, time below the moving average, but still in the channel.

and close to the channel itself, like this one right here. And those are going

to be our major buying opportunities in this cycle.

So we are doing a mean reversion opposite to what we've done with the

to the upside.

And please note that usually we would hope to have some kind of

local volatility here.

on the increase, some local volatility

increase, some local volatility increase.

So we wanna see that because it usually will tell us the timing of potential

phase C.

And in this case, Volatility comes on the change of character.

So usually volatility to the downside is going to be change of character, change

of character, change of character, change of character, and then potential

C in the reaccumulations.

So those are going to be other spots of interest to us. And then let's look at

the texture with which the price moves up.

Where is our momentum stage? Where is our speculative stage? And where is our

absorption stage? Eric, would you like to give it a shot?

I think that from this perspective, maybe it's a little bit harder.

But let's just see what we can come up with.

So the three options were absorption, speculation, and

momentum, right?

So I would say starting in 98, you know, October 98,

well, even before that, I

guess that's October 97.

We have, it looks like, some preliminary support on the way down. So there's

some absorption of supply happening there.

October 98, that's the selling climax.

We seem to go into a trading range until 01.

So there would be some absorption happening there, and then we have kind

first evidence of an uptrend move at the beginning of 01.

So that would be the beginning of our momentum stage, 01 to

middle of 02.

How about this? How about we approach this, let's just kind of like approach

this from the perspective of the definitions, right? So speculation and

momentum. I think those are the ones that are easier to identify.

For instance, where is our speculation?

Speculation is at the last part of the...

of the up move, and it's usually kind of more parabolic in nature. Right. So let

me just give you a different perspective. We're kind of like looking

area, but we're not seeing really what has happened here just because this is a

log scale.

Okay.

Here's your parabolic move, right?

So that has some kind of speculative nature.

So I would say that maybe this whole thing has its own like speculation

wave.

And that also has like those three, you know, major things.

Momentum increase.

Then we have absorption.

And then we have the final speculation. This is where the price, you know, more

than doubles.

and then before that we could see and it's kind of like a maybe like a fractal

within the fractal on the log we better see the beginning of the move so usually

when we talk about the momentum we will be let's say looking at some momentum uh

indicator or even just on the price action itself so here's the momentum

a momentum here

There's gonna be a lot of momentum out of the preliminary support just because

there is just an attempt to buy and it's gonna be something different.

Here is a momentum as well.

So we kind of identified that and on the rate of change, you're gonna see that,

right? So all those big spikes.

Those are the momentum spikes that we look for. So I think that the

original momentum phase is going to be somewhere here. It's just a little bit

obscure. But if you think about the pricing here, so from $2 .50 to about

$8 .50, so that's a big momentum move in a year. And then

we are going into this prolonged period where we...

we have some kind of absorption.

And it also has different segments behind it. We see that the momentum has

of like this spikes up momentum.

This is that reaccumulation as a rotational pattern.

What happens here?

Well, there is on the value, there is a lot of bind in phase

A and early phase B.

And what happens here is that institutions,

some institutions that are strong hands, they are selling, as we've talked

about, and then some strong hands are buying.

Those strong hands that are selling are kind of seeing maybe like a short -term

deterioration, so they're taking profits.

The strong hands are...

buyers, they are seeing that the future valuation is probably somewhere high, so

they are willing to come in on the liquidity and observe this supply.

Please note what happens after this phase A, early phase B rotational

reaccumulation.

Almost apex formation, diminishing volume characteristics and inactivity by

CO.

That's it, there is nothing else. After that, there is accumulation on the way

up that has kind of like the same stages maybe even of what we have

had somewhere here of the momentum.

So momentum always would sustain the move of the loss and that's what we need

for the price cycle.

Okay.

So can I just ask a question here? Like, I understand what you said from 99 to

01 was, you know, momentum move. But, you know, from what I see, like I see 99

to 2000 as a momentum move, and then we're down for a year.

So is that a period of absorption?

And then we have another momentum move from 01 to middle of 02, July 02.

Another, you know, sideways action for...

about five or six years, and then another momentum move?

Well, don't forget, I mean, the stock itself, right, so has a specific way of

how it moves depending on the cycles in this particular industry and so on and

so forth.

And, yeah, usually we would have that type of sustainability of the

The sustainability comes from buying by institutional hand.

So we see a lot of buying here. We see a lot of buying off this low. We see a

lot of buying into the climactic action.

Then we identify the next series of buying.

And again, we'll be talking about this in November.

Then the next series of buying.

All right, so somewhere here.

Here and then the next one right so here we go Okay

here as well

Here

And then the buying is just

subsides and then it comes back here somewhere So you could see what

this buying

that is being identified by the momentum and this this one's due of course

what it does to the trend it originates

the trend then it sustains the

trend

So they are buying and then they're going away. They're inactive. They're

of holding this position.

And then when the price deteriorates to the levels where they're willing to buy

again, their previous value zone, they're going to buy.

That's going to be shown on the momentum and the volume signature.

And that's going to push the price higher again.

At the overbought condition, they're going to originate the mean reversion

trade. And that's going to depress.

the price for some time.

You know, this is a specific pattern here, this rotational reaccumulation

happens early in the trading range.

And then once we go through the trading range, it's when the highest momentum or

the biggest buying starts to occur, that's when sustainability of the trend

going to reoccur, occur again.

And then in the areas of the reaccumulation, again, if we're seeing

there's going to be some kind of continuation. We see that here.

And again, buying off the value.

So you could see how big institutions are not necessarily have to be present

each day in the market. They usually don't. They establish the position. It

takes weeks and sometimes months, and then they go away.

And because they don't do anything,

That locks up the supply, and that's how the price goes up. And it's because

there's no selling, the price is going up.

And there is some additional buying. And then coming back into the short -term

value, buy again, pushes the price up, creates the trend.

So that's what creates the trends themselves, you know, those

momentum buys by institutions.

And that's what sustains the trends as well.

All right, Eric, what else?

I'm kind of like as you're speaking there, I just have this aha moment.

I don't know.

It's almost like putting your, you know, you're in your car.

And, you know, there's a big push on the gas, and that gives you like a little

boost of acceleration, and then, you know, your speed starts to fall off.

Another push on the gas, speed starts to fall off. Good.

Push on the gas, yeah.

Yeah, good analogy, yeah. So it's like additional acceleration that you give

the car.

A little impulse.

Yeah, a little impulse, and then it carries you through for some time.

And then because that...

second portion, right? So initial impulse, and then the second one is

have that deterioration of the momentum, right? So this is initial

deterioration. Deterioration will bring some of the selling at some point.

But all of this is not that kind of difficult, you know, to put together

when you understand how the price moves and all of the points, the position

points in this price cycle,

then you could kind of figure out where the failure could potentially

have and where the confirmation of the resumption of the trend could happen.

then it becomes all a question of selection.

Do I want to be in this stock or this stock that are structurally in the same

position and that exhibits maybe different characteristics?

So we'll talk about this as well.

All right, Eric, I think that's it for today.

This was kind of like on -the -fly exercise.

I was kind of thinking about what we're going to do, and I think that we've done

everything. I can't think of anything else. Do you have any other questions or

maybe anyone else?

No, I'm good. Thank you.

Okay, great. Eric, thank you so much.

Okay, a couple of questions we do have.

When you're referring to volatility, are you only referring to price, not

considering volume, or does volume complement your

assessment?

Both. I look at both. Usually the emergence or increase in the volume

would produce what to the result? Probably expansion.

So therefore, volatility would increase.

So volume is closely associated with how the price reacts to the increase in the

volume and the volatility in general.

And the last question. That's interesting. Okay, from Mitri. Armand,

go, just wondering what are your thoughts on the competition coming into

brokerage business? Many brokerages drop in commissions. Yeah, and today we had

that. type of day where I just put this.

Okay, so who dropped the ball today?

Schwab, right?

So Schwab said that we're going to have no commissions.

Charles Schwab, am I correct?

And this stock chart does not even show this, okay.

Let me show you on other charts here.

Here we are.

So in some instances we had like 20 % drops, I think, in some brokerages.

look at some others.

A -Trade.

let's do symbol now what's the symbol for your trade i keep on spacing out

do you guys remember

Okay, so here is that drop in E -Trade, Meritrade,

and more so. And please note, all of the downtrends. So it's not like it has

happened so unexpectedly.

Whoever is in the industry, they know the trends of the industry, and

the smart money were capitulating earlier.

So let's just say that we close out.

this picture and you know, what would be the bias on this chart?

Well, we're seeing some increase in volume signature on the way up, right?

what does that do? That's increasing the volume signature.

It stops the price from moving further up.

We see a lot of volatility and the climactic run.

We're probably assuming this is value selling into the strength.

So then we would be thinking, okay, where is our early investors

that are going to capitulate slightly,

not slightly, but smart money, but that

usually sell after there is some kind of deterioration of the trend.

And I think that this area right here depicts that.

by early institutional hands.

They are seeing the deterioration in the price they are getting out.

They are maybe looking at some fundamental reasons they are getting out

Then the late institutional capitulation is probably going to come somewhere

here.

And then a general capitulation is something that came today.

This is where everyone is giving up.

There is no reason to hold on to this position.

The structure of the business changes, and that's going to produce a different

structure. Until investors understand how you can make money without judging

a commission, and your profitability levels are going to be at the same

as before, then they most likely are going to be disregarded in the stock and

the group in general.

What are my thoughts about the competition?

I definitely welcome it because, as you guys could see

maybe from your brokerage statements, even with current pricing, which is very

low compared to, let's say, 20 years ago when I started trading and investing at

that time, that was ridiculous.

Right now, with all of the free options like Robinhood that we have,

I think this is the This is the direction that is being given to us. I'm

as to what business model they will have. So how do they make money? Do they

advertise, and that's the main revenue? Do they sell something to the investors

that generates their revenue as well?

Or maybe they have their commission built in the spread itself.

And I have to read on this a little bit, educate myself on the business concept.

Definitely for it.

Okay, last question and we're going to stop here.

Could the high volume be considered buying by contrarians?

Well, definitely somebody is buying on the value, right?

But the main move today is to the downside. If you would be thinking, are

more sellers here or buyers?

There are definitely more sellers, but there is a lot of buying that is

happening here as well.

The buying by itself does not mean that, you know, the

selling is done, right? So, for instance, don't confuse a high -volume

with intelligent buying or a timely buying.

We could say that, all right, well, here there was a lot of buying as well.

What did it lead to?

Just a quick rebound.

So you have to put this into the context of where that high volume signature

occurs. You might say that there is maybe more of the mean reversion

trade that is possible here, and that produces some buys on this bar,

rather than necessarily long -term value plays.

Although that might be the case at some point, and we should just wait and see.

All right.

Yeah, that's what I thought, Eric. So I think that brokers right now, yeah,

making the money, you know, behind the commission.

So I think this is where it's all going. So kind of like the commission is going

to be building the spread itself.

Okay, guys, I think that's it for today.

Good session, quite a lot of material, so I kind of wanted to put it out there

so that then next we would just go through the exercises and all that

All right, guys, until next week, don't forget about your bias game. Send me

your charts, send me your questions, and I'll talk to you next week on

the Eats. Thank you, guys, and bye -bye.