Original subtitles

Hi, everyone. Today is December 17th, and this is our final class of the White

of Practicum.

This is the last session of the Practicum as we know it, and it's going

become WTC Part 2.

But we're still going to call this Practicum because this is where a lot of

thinking is happening.

This is where a lot of R &D is happening as well.

It's just when students go to...

The level where they understand the material better and much deeper, you

they obviously have different questions.

And that's how this R &D kind of happens. In a way, you know, me and you

have a very symbiotic relationship.

I give you some knowledge that has obviously a lot of blind spots, and then

ask questions about those blind spots.

I address those, but...

By addressing some of them, it opens up other blind spots.

So you kind of could see this perpetual symbiotic push and pull.

What about this?

What about that? Well, let me go and research on this, and then I'll come

to you. And when I come back,

you know, you usually guys are going, okay, well, that was great.

But what about this?

It kind of never stops, and it always amazes me for almost 10 years now that

I've taught officially.

It's always been like this. So I came to a realization. I want to share this

with you.

I have a nonverbal contract with all of you, my students.

And that contract is basically you give me an opportunity.

to go and research stuff and bring this stuff to you.

And you require so that I would explain that. So that's kind of like my job. My

job as a teacher is to go and to find those, I call

them moments of truth.

some secret that you know needs to be uncovered and my my responsibility is

to do that and then to give this to you so um kind of like that's my that's

my purpose um and i'm really happy to do this it uh brings me a lot of pleasure

you know to do this all right well that was a little bit out of the way

um but uh I guess, you know, I'm a little bit sentimental because

this is the last class, you know, and we had it going so well. I think this was

probably one of the best practical cycles that we've had.

I thank your insistence on the details of the bias game.

was one of the greatest moments of this cycle, for sure. And I'm looking forward

to see how that's going to transpire, you know, going forward. Because the

we do bias games, and the more you guys are kind

of like pushing the whole process to a very structured

way, the more clearer the solution is.

I basically kind of see where it's going from here.

We're going to have a step -by -step for the bias game. And we have rule number

one.

Go left to right.

Create your story from left to right. Use all of the information that you

So that was a really great moment in the class in this cycle.

I really, really liked and appreciate also.

All of the honest and sincere, straightforward emails that I've got

guys about where you are in trading, you know, what bothers you, what you think,

you know, we should be studying in the class.

And I'm always listening.

You know, sometimes, you know, I just take it as a note. And sometimes, you

know, I drastically change, you know, the way how we approach that.

In a way, again, I'm talking about that relationship that we have. You are

driving the product, so to say. You're kind of like dictating what is the next

blind spot that we have to go to and uncover.

So I really appreciate that.

Okay, what else?

I think anatomy of the trade.

was also interesting in the way how kind of did not start really well, but

then, you know, once this election was good, then we went into the

of, okay, well, this is betrayed and this is how it unfolds.

There were probably I would try to

figure out

how to include more exercises on more different themes.

So maybe in the next cycle, that could be my focus.

So kind of like contemplating and thinking about the next cycle.

What else is going to happen in the next cycle is that once the new website is

launched, then we are going to have the capacity to communicate with each other

via forums.

And one of the forums is going to be a closed out protected forum for WICAP

practicum students.

And you guys will be able to talk to each other, post any charts, you know,

discuss any homework that we have. And because it's closed, only you in the

classroom is going to see this.

Actually, I probably will be kind of like thinking that.

For those of you who would like, you could post your bias game, you know,

you're done with that.

And then, you know, other people could have a look at that work if you'd like.

Because I can't really, you know, do all of this, you know, put all of your

homeworks on the slides, but this could be the way.

And then just I had so many requests from you just to connect, connect,

So we're going to do exactly that.

All right.

What else is here before we go to our agenda?

Long -term campaigns. I thought the first session was great.

A lot of new material.

You know, the way how I'm showing

kind of like the

price cycle and how we're going to put the coordinates there.

And I gave you guys, you know, like a very, very defined signal as to look for

this. And then you had a homework. So for those of you who still want to

participate, this week is the last session. But, you know, as always, you

buy it on demand.

The practical.

And this is very serious. And I've already seen three people who signed up.

for alumni who signed up for the practicum again.

Well, first of all, very smart because it's an early bird, so please do that.

And then I'm kind of smiling a little bit because

you see what's going on.

It's like this game never ends.

Each week you could analyze the chart and you could come back to the class and

just listen to the explanation or just watch for that explanation.

And I think that the key, especially for those of you who have jobs from nine to

five and you guys are so busy with other stuff in your life, it's very difficult

and I totally get it.

There are other things that the market, and I'm devoting a lot of time during

the day.

to the markets from any aspects of it.

So I'm gonna take myself out of this equation.

But there are some things in life that I really, really would like to do.

And my job, which is the markets, does not allow me to do so, right? So

having just one class a week, it's a structured way to kind

of still keep going.

keep improving and with each week just think about those concepts to improve

your thinking to look at some examples and it's still gonna benefit you in the

very long run so I could see how some of the people are kind of like you know

jumping you know from one cycle to another into another it's just because

just never stops so you can never stop your improvement all right so Register

for the practicum if you intend to do so.

Also consider WMT if you're not a subscriber.

Also, if you would like to repeat WTC course, that's available as well.

And there are some very exciting products in 2020 that are coming out,

on our newsletter distribution list. So I will inform you this way.

But one thing to pay attention, actually two things to pay attention to, for

sure, is the trusted process, continuation of that, and then also the

scanning, which I think that we are consistently now

developing this methodology and knowledge.

And in my work with John, I'm making sure that there is that.

consistency of the progression.

So if you start from the beginning, you know, from the first specials, from the

very basic syntax, the basic understanding, and I would take first

special just to understand the momentum in general and then jump into the

scanning.

Then we're going to have part two and also a very, very advanced part three.

it's just exciting where we're going with that.

And trust the process, that's going to be a complete thing.

You know, I kind of like have a specific vision for that as well. We have, you

know, Teresa working on that, and she's doing just a spectacular work.

So somewhere in the first quarter, we're going to have that special too.

Today, and it's session number 15, by the way, right?

It's not session number 14. I just don't want to say goodbye.

We have a special presentation by Ted. Ted is going to be showing his way

of defining and looking for sprints.

So that's going to be very interesting.

Then a quick market update, anatomy of the trade update, bias game, a last bias

game that I'm going to give you guys, and then you're off to races with the

Twitter. And on Twitter, free each week.

Same bias game.

We give you the explanation as well, so you don't have to be in class.

At least do that.

That's very educational.

But if you want more details, obviously, just sign up for the class.

Q &A, because this is the last class, we didn't have a lot of questions,

although we've addressed so many during the course of this semester. So I'm

satisfied with the Q &A in general.

And then...

There are some exercises that are left on the bias game or the tape reading,

we'll see which one you guys will choose at that moment.

All right.

As usual, everything that we talk about here is for educational purposes. Stop

your recording. Read the disclaimer.

With this, let me introduce you to

our today's presenter.

Ted, are you there?

I think that you have to unmute yourself.

Let's see. Is this working now? Yes.

Yes, I can hear you now. Oh, good.

Isn't this amazing?

Yeah. I'm on the side of the road driving to Chicago.

Yeah. And, you know, it is amazing, yes. And I'm so happy that you could make

it with the, you know, with this technology that we have. So that's

So, Ted, I wanted to, and I kind of prefixed this by

that you're going to talk to us about sprints.

So you sent me an email where you were showing a case study, so to

say, on the screen. And it kind of got me interested, and I thought it would be

valuable for our students, you know, to hear this.

Sure. So walk us through this.

Well, let me make a few prefaces.

I'm an old student, not a very good student.

took the course from Craig Schroeder in 1982.

And the only, not being a good student, I didn't, all I came away with was

springs and upthrust.

I didn't understand the A, B, C, D, E.

That's why I took the course from you probably nine months ago,

to understand more about Wyckoff and to have more points of entry.

Because good springs don't occur that often in the market.

So I put this.

And how was the course for you, by the way, Ted?

Oh, I loved it.

I loved it.

I'm going to go back through my old. I still have the old original course.

And I'm going to look for the A, B, C, D, E that I must have missed back then.

But it certainly has given me more.

places to look for entries.

I never would, I didn't buy NVIDIA, but I could see what a great trade that was

after, you know, I think it had made a spring. I don't, I don't have the

Yeah, it was a high low. It was attempting to spring and it had, yes,

it didn't make a loyal low, but let's, let's also, you know, because we're here

in the advanced class, let's just, Remember that NVIDIA on the way to that

C had characteristics that it wanted to spring, the way how the spread behaved,

the way how the volume behaved.

And that's the main recognition that we should have, you know, on that type of

the reaction that goes into spring. And it just failed to spring.

Didn't spring.

And then you missed, so you wouldn't have bought it there, but on the, you

there's other places as it was unfolding that you could have jumped in and made

a very nice.

Made a very nice trade still, you know, which is still unfolding.

So I put these I'm an investment advisor, work for a large firm in

and was an institutional salesman for many years selling research to

institutions around the country. So I got to see how large institutions work.

You know, there's portfolio managers, there's there's analysts and there's

trading departments.

And so it's kind of fun to see things unfold and imagine, you know, as you're

talking about how institutions look at things and and then try to imagine how

things are working inside of those institutions.

But so you've got you're on the first part of this PowerPoint.

And, you know, I think there is a Wyckoff admonition that says beware of

springs and downtrends.

And that's that's correct, because they often fail.

But.

To buy a spring or to get into a spring position, the stock has to be a little

weaker than the market has to be in a downtrend of some kind. But I would say

that you wait for a spring to get to a really big spring position.

Maybe, you know, you're springing support from two or three years ago. And

are those are big springs.

So if we go to the next slide.

Here we go.

And, of course, really good springs come in down markets, which, of course, is

when it's really hard to buy a good spring.

And that's probably what takes all the practice.

A good spring, in my opinion, is the danger points, the danger points that

Livermore would talk about.

And I have found that in a really good spring, most of the gain comes

in the automatic rally after the spring is made.

And we'll see that in just a little bit.

But if we go to the next slide.

Here's Lyondell.

Now, I kind of like dividend stocks because I think a good dividend puts a

natural floor underneath a stock. But you can see this wonderful spring.

You know, Bruce Frazier was talking about that switch from growth to value

in August. And he had that chart, growth versus value, on

StockCharts .com. And it kind of shows you when.

The values started to get weaker.

Do you remember that chart he had and the value stocks were getting stronger?

Well, that all happened right back in August, right when this spring in Lion

Dell occurred.

Now, another spring in Caterpillar. There were a lot of large springs right

that month.

And you can see Lion Dell is springing support. One, two, three, four.

Four years of support. And down there in that spring at sixty nine dollars.

It was yielding six and three quarters.

It was yielding six percent or so.

So to me, that's that's kind of what I like to buy.

If we go to the next slide.

At this at the same time, this is Caterpillar.

This is the spring in August.

You see a nice trading range.

And we see the stock is now down at that spring position in August.

And what a wonderful thing that's been. It's up 27 % from the spring. Now,

Roman, you probably wouldn't buy that spring. You'd probably wait for the

automatic rally and the test and all that.

And that's fine. But sometimes I would jump in right there because most of the

gain is made.

the recovery from the spring right well ted um i don't know if you want the

questions afterwards or durian um because yeah that kind of you know

the question is is asking itself why the majority why do you think the

majority of the gains come right after the spring what you're calling an

automatic rally here after the spring

Probably we're referring to the sign of strength here.

Yes, that's the sign of strength. In your opinion, why would the majority of

gains come quickly after the spring?

I just noticed that in a good spring, the rally

after the spring is kind of sharp.

When you jump in later on, well, maybe a good bit of the move has already been

made, and it's more of a slog after that.

So that's why I think that.

Can I really quickly tell you my opinion on why this happens?

Yes, please.

Okay, so this is a very good observation.

But we also want to understand, you know, what... what happens there, right?

when we look at the volume signature throughout the whole trading range going

into phase C, we kind of see a lot of buys as value buys. So they are buying

the bottom. They are buying like at the climactic action.

Then they are buying maybe like at the bottom of the spring of the secondary

test, I'm sorry. And it acts as a spring, right? It goes down, quickly up.

Then another...

kind of type of spring at this support level.

We're looking just at this support level.

Goes down, there is a little bit of the increase in the volume signature.

They are buying right here. So we could establish like this value zone for

institutional buyers where they buy it.

And then by the time that they have bought this position into phase C, we

see in the volume signature that supply has diminished. They have absorbed

supply. It's visible from the volume itself and from inability of the price

commit seriously down.

So then what happens next?

Well, first, the spring in August, is that point C?

Yes. That's C. That's C right there. And we could actually include this test

into C.

Why? Because we usually would be thinking that with the local increase of

supply, there's going to be some kind of test in action that should happen on

the lower volume signature and then at the higher low structurally.

So that's what we're looking for.

So we could include both.

And then imagine that this supply has been observed.

it's much easier for the price to move up. So now we have momentum on our side.

And not only that, there are fewer shares that are available because of

absorption. So they have to bid up the price.

And that's when the move starts to happen much faster. And off the spring,

usually will have that momentum.

Now what happens afterwards in some cases, whenever we've done sign of

Then they're saying, well, we bought in on the way up. Now we're not going to do

anything. We're going to become inactive.

We're satisfied. We have a meaningful position.

If we're going to see some short -term value, we're going to step in.

And that's where the price starts to kind of like drift into the backing up

action. And as they see some short -term value, that's when they start, okay,

we're going to pick up a little bit here, a little bit here, a little bit

Now we're kind of like supporting this ground because our short -term.

valuation is here, and that absorbs final supply at this level, and then

moves the price up. This advertises the trend, and then more institutions jump

on this train because their systems are saying, what, 52 weeks high, momentum

breakout, and so on and so forth.

So all of these institutional trend followers are jumping on the train, and

obviously it becomes a trend.

But it all started with this spring.

With this spring. With this spring.

And the problem is you don't have a beautiful formation like this very

I mean, you can look for these and look for them.

There's not that many of them.

But when they're there, they're pretty good.

Okay. Going to the next.

The next one is eBay.

This is years ago, not that many years ago, but I always thought.

Here we have a nice long trading range.

And I kind of look at the bottom of that range.

As the bid side of the market in a big kind of way, that's the bid side and the

upper range is the offered side in a big kind of way. And and this is where all

the big.

The big boys, the big portfolio managers, and I used to call on them.

where they're kind of placing their orders in a big trading range like this.

Now, eBay went on to much.

This was reaccumulation, and this went on to much higher highs after 2015.

I don't show it to you in this chart. I'm just showing you that particular

trading range.

The next slide, somehow I went back to Caterpillar, eBay.

Oh, so, Roman, you said in one of your classes,

and this is, flip down to the next, flip down

if you would. It should be TLT.

Yes. Yes. All right.

So you said, and this explains things perfectly.

that a climax is a liquidity event.

So you shouldn't fear these things.

And I can just imagine what goes on inside of an institution.

And you've been trying to buy this stock all year long.

If you're a big institution, you just can't buy that much stock and not move

price.

And so you...

You kind of divide up your purchases and you kind of wade into a stock and you

wade out of a stock.

And then suddenly you've been trying to buy this stock all year. Then finally,

wham, it's down five or six points on some sort of bad news.

Huge spread going down.

Lots of volume.

And the trading department is calling up the portfolio manager saying, look,

you've been trying to buy this all year.

Here you can have all you want at down five dollars from the last price.

And they're finding the other sides of these trades. And so the portfolio

managers, if nothing really is that different about the company, they come

and make their purchases.

Now, this isn't a stock. TLT is, you know, long treasuries, but it's the

I was just looking for an example of a nice big climax where the climax stopped

the move.

And this is what happened in the ETF.

And then this is back in August.

September and October of 18.

Then we had a very big rally for bonds in TLT or

is shown by TLT, I should say. And then we had another in August of 19. We had

a buying climax and that and as I was watching that, you just knew, oh, this

the end of the rally because we had this big climax and everything that was to

be. Bought and sold is bought and sold right then, and kind of everything's

cleared out, and we've marked the end of a rally. So now this is probably going

to mark a nice trading range, don't you think, Roman?

Yeah, absolutely.

I mean, that was described perfectly.

The rally itself had kind of like those characteristics that we've talked about,

guys, in Best of Wyckoff.

I've talked about first the momentum off the floor, right? So where we have that

volume signature. There's a lot of buying orders that moves the price

after the spring.

Ted has described the spring process to us.

Then we go into the second section where we have profit taken on the way up,

and that kind of has more reactionary mode, but it's still upsloping.

It's a vertical absorption.

taking is happening other institutional interest believing that the valuation is

still going to be higher and they are going to observe that supply by stepping

in and buying you know that supply and then once supply has been observed first

at the low level at the level of the backing up action then on the way up

there is nothing left and we have a pure speculation um and

actually There is nothing to fear about the buying climaxes. In fact, you should

be looking at the opportunity as a speculator, and I'm talking to those of

advanced students who are speculators, to take this and to take this.

Unfortunately, I did not take the move up, but when I saw that it's climaxing

like this, my entry was here and I got out somewhere here.

The purpose of this trade was not to have a very long -term, short -oriented

position. It was just to capture the initial momentum, to capture the initial

volatility in a very short period of time, make a relatively good return.

And that's what kind of like was achieved with that trade. Ted?

Yes. So this illustrates climaxes at both ends of a

move.

Now, too bad as we're a big bond firm, too bad we didn't

really act. We didn't do anything right there.

You're too scared to death.

Okay, well, let me kind of like interfere here with your thinking here,

I do.

uh work and consult you know um institutional clients so this is a kind

uh common dilemma right what do you do at that spot at the top as an

you have you're holding a long -term position you know so what do you do you

already have you know profits built in but in a lot of cases i hear that is

um when there is such a strong deviation you know uh in the way how quickly the

move has happened, institutions tend to take the profits off the table, wouldn't

you say?

Yes. As a bond firm, we have most certainly drawn in our horns because

we've had such a great year. We want to preserve it. Yes.

So the way you do that in a bond firm is you shorten up your positions.

Okay. You shorten them up. You can stay in the same corporate bonds if you like

the names. You can stay in the same. You just buy shorter positions because

they're not going to be as volatile as a longer bond is going to be.

In effect, you're making the same trade.

You are basically trading this short -term volatility that's going to occur

you're using just different

time frame.

As a firm, we're not using charts like a Wyckoff person.

If we were all Wyckoff bond people, we would have known what to do.

Hopefully, for your personal purposes and just an understanding.

You know, of what are the possibilities here, how behaviors are going to, you

know, be exhibited at that buy and stop in action. You know, I think it's

useful. All right. Well, what's what's next for us? So the next next slide.

Oh, so here's what I emailed you, Roman. And then you emailed me back. So, you

know, the market, one of the few things the market gives you is diversification.

So is.

investment advisors portfolio managers you have diversified portfolios now as

you get if you become a good wyckoff trader you don't need as much

diversification because you're more correct more often on your trades

but remember yeah hopefully but you know we're trading for other people so you

can't do the things that you would do in your own in your own account um

But diversification is one of the few things the market gives you.

And so why not have a diversified portfolio of springs?

And so from time to time, I sit down in front of the TV and I'm just flipping

through. I like to use Telechart because you can just zip through 500, the S &P

500 in no time, just flipping right through.

And, you know, I just jot down a number of.

Springs are close to springs or maybe a few failed springs, too.

So August 22nd, I've done this over the years, so I've got lists from previous

years. This is just the latest one.

I did not make that list in August. There are some great springs in August.

This is October 22nd.

And.

So there were about seven or eight.

The stocks that I jotted down noted.

And if we go to the next.

Well, let me say this.

If if you put together a portfolio of springs.

If you look at the let's go down the next let's go down the next chart.

This is that portfolio of spring, so you can see what the stocks were.

Alexian, Clorox, Comerica, Concho Resources, Disney, Devon Energy,

EOG Resources, Exelon, and Diamondback Energy.

You notice there's a few oil stocks in here because they're all making lows.

The green line is the composite is the average of these stocks.

The blue line is the S &P 500.

begins October 22nd.

And you can see how these springs, how these companies have rallied

since October 22nd, responding to these springs.

And you can see how the S &P 500 did at the same period.

If I were to back this chart up,

The composite of these stocks would look terrible. They'd be down 25 % over the

last 12 months.

But then once they hit their spring positions, they start rallying.

So this chart begins from October 22nd. So there's two things I note. One,

the springs do better, and they have over, when I've done this time after

have done better than the S &P.

We're investment advisors, so we like to do better than the S &P or whatever our

benchmark is.

And it also the springs triggered you into positions.

So you got triggered into positions and you did better than the S &P 500 for

this period of time. Now, the effect of these springs is going to wear off over

time. So four months from now.

That green line is probably going to be doing worse than the S &P.

Because you went into stocks that are probably weaker than the market in

general. They're responding to their springs, but they're kind of weaker than

the market.

So this will this effect will wear off after a while and these will stop

outperforming. I've seen that happen in these lists, which I keep.

If we go down.

So then I put slides in for each one of these stocks.

So go down the next one.

We'll see Clorox.

Clorox is kind of a spring in a what could be an uptrend.

That's responding not not really well. Oh, and this is at October 22nd. So this

is what they look like at October 22nd, not afterwards.

I'd confuse everything if I tried to put, you know, October 22nd, then what

happened afterwards. But you guys can look it up.

See how these responded.

The next one is Comerica.

That was on this list. The next one is Concho.

So these are all pretty ugly looking at the time. That's what makes them hard to

jump into.

So ugly.

Next one is Alexian.

Alexian had a great rally after that spring.

The next one is Disney. A spring in an uptrend.

That one sprung very nicely.

Devon Energy didn't quite get to the spring. It started to rally a little

EOG Resources didn't quite get to the spring, but it rallied.

Exelon, a big utility.

And Fang, Diamondback Energy.

So I just put these on. This is what they look like at the time of the

And then if you go back up and see the performance of the springs, you'll see

that most of them have, in mass, have done all right.

So that was my story.

Oh, one other thought.

When you see a bunch of big springs in the market, that could be a turning

in the market.

especially in big stocks.

I think the market follows big stocks and big springs in stocks, and I think

that touches off rallies in the market.

Yeah, that's a really good observation.

I think that we are, you know, through different tools in different classes,

we're coming up with the definition of the breadth of the market. So you can

spring as kind of like a breadth indicator of where we are.

At the point of the reversal when the market is oversold and, you know,

obviously October 22nd is kind of like, you know, on that one of the

lows there.

So we're definitely going to see a lot of sprints there. Right. And from there,

we're going to have a move up.

I think what's valuable and I would love to hear your thoughts is.

Definitely, emotionally, it's difficult to buy a sprain just because we are at

the point of danger, right? So it could go...

Either way, it could continue its move to the downside. Usually, it's not going

to have relative strength.

It's not going to have other characteristics rather than maybe like

conditions of deterioration of the downtrend, where momentum starts to slow

down, maybe where the volume starts to come in in a bullish way, and we could

start seeing this. But usually, it's going to look very bearish.

It's going to look awful.

And by the way, these have all worked because we're in a bull market.

If we were in a bear market, these springs would not be working.

And that's how you know if you're in a bull market or a bear market.

Right. So you have to pick up the springs in some kind of market

correction.

That's when they're going to work the best.

So either this is going to be a secular correction like 2009, and those are

going to be deep sprints.

But those are going to present the most long -term value.

Or you're going to have short -term cyclical lows, 2010, 2011,

2012,

2014, 2015, 2016, then 2018.

on both sides at the beginning of the year and at the end, and then 19.

All of those years would have those market characteristics of a cyclical

downturn, which recovers in the second. Which recovers. Yeah.

Usually during those that are usually going to be like 10, 15, 20 % down,

going to find a lot of sprints.

That's when you'll see the springs, nice ones, big ones.

Right. Now, if you're incorrect on some of these and you fall below.

Oh, my goodness. I was about to ask you this question.

Then what happens is you have a good chance of a rally back to the ice.

Okay. So you still rally.

If spring fails, right, this should be kind of like a title of an article or a

blog. If spring fails.

then what are our tactics?

We are basically saying that this is, as you said, return to the ISO LPSY rally.

But it's still a rally.

Yes, and you let it go on the rally.

Okay, so how do you let it go?

My question was, what is the point of confirmation for you?

Where do you confirm?

I'm not that good of a Wyckoff student.

I see. Well, I'm thinking maybe like a breakout, like a local breakout after

the sprint and the test.

So if there is a resumption of this up move, then we definitely should continue

and actually add to the position because this is an add -on point.

Yeah. Right. Yeah.

Yeah. Okay. So we are looking for the confirmation.

Okay.

We're on FAG, right?

Are you on Fang? Oh, no, I wasn't looking at you.

Yeah, well, let's kind of like finish here, just one more item.

What I thought that was mentioned many times, but maybe we are overlooking this

point, the difference between, let's say,

a secular spring and more of a spring.

in the bull market already.

Because the springs in the bull market in the previous or in prior leadership

stocks, those are the best.

Those are the springs and uptrends. Yes, springs and uptrends, exactly.

So LYB would not be one of those, but it made a five -year spring and

was yielding 6 % down there.

So think about what's the difference, right? Well, first of all, there could

a difference in causality.

Secular springs are going to have secular type of causalities.

Springs in the uptrend are going to have smaller causality because those are

reaccumulation points.

Yes. And they're going to require even less effort and less momentum to

get out of them.

But they still will require some effort.

of absorption.

So this is actually really good.

Well, Roman, from where I come from, when I was an institutional salesman, we

were a value shop.

So I just like cheap.

That's just the way I was brought up in the stock market.

Well, yes, and we want to understand that mentality because, you know, The

mentality of value still pretty much rules the markets.

The mentality of momentum sustains the trends.

We want to understand how do value investors operate?

What are the points where they buy?

I think this presentation is just perfect.

It's kind of like a look inside of institutional mind and how institutions

buying value,

call and spring.

Roman, our bond guys will also refer to spread and volume too.

Bonds are different, but they're really hard to buy as opposed to

stock because they're so illiquid. You look for spread and volume.

Right.

There is some liquidity problems in this market. Oh, huge.

It's huge.

So you have to navigate also in terms of like if I'm getting into this position,

am I going to get out even if it moves? No question.

No question. So there should be some kind of assessment as to what levels of

liquidity you could have and then what kind of weight proposition you're going

to have as per that liquidity, stuff like that?

No question. We have to study this to know if it's a bond.

If we can't trade bonds, we don't have a business.

So whatever we trade, we have to be able to sell out. So we look for big liquid

bonds. But even in the big liquid bonds, they're hard.

Like many things in life, it's very easy to get into things, much harder to get

out.

So you can buy any bond you want at a fair price, maybe.

But try selling it. That's the problem.

So, yeah.

Okay. Well, Ted, this is great. This is a great presentation. Thank you for this

unique view for us.

You know, you kind of like bring in both, you know, institutional knowledge

you know, your experience and then also understanding of the, you know, Wyckoff

methodology and how we look at things. So it's just very, very unique for us.

Yeah.

It's not perfectly Wyckoff, and I'd like to get better at Wyckoff because then

there'd be more traits and better ones.

So there you are. So I'll just continue driving, and I'll just listen.

Absolutely. Enjoy the class, and thank you very much again.

Great.

All right. I think I muted Ted.

He muted himself. Well, Ted, thank you. Thank you very much and just enjoy the

class.

Well, I think that, you know, this type of presentation,

we probably could have so many.

with people who are on the institutional side and they're using, let's say,

technical analysis or they're using Weikert methodology in particular.

It makes a lot of sense where TED would be looking for candidates.

You know, it's at that point of institutional value.

They need to be so efficient because they need to produce good metrics.

throughout the year.

Otherwise, they're not going to have business.

So therefore, there is a lot of thought that's going in their head as to where

exactly they are buying.

That's a really, really good knowledge.

All right, great.

Let's look at the markets really quick.

So we probably would agree that

Tariffs is probably, as a story, is going away, at least short term, at

with phase one.

I think that we are going to have some kind of ups and downs there because it's

not resolved completely, but the cost is clear.

Brexit, and I was talking to one of our students.

My friend, he lives in London, and I was asking all of the Brexit sentiment

news. And even though a lot of people were objecting to the

Brexit itself or how it's happening,

the markets actually were encouraging.

The London market has rallied at almost 2 .5 %

after the vote.

very decisive vote for Boris's party.

So it's probably a non -event as well. There is a change of perception,

and we'll talk about this tomorrow in the WMD class.

Then what are we left with? Fed. Fed is accommodative, and there is really...

You know, nothing on the horizon in terms of the unexpectancy of the Fed

behavior.

Economy, well, it's slowly growing. It's not overheated. And that's usually

a really good thing, not to be overheated, but at the same time, you

So that would suggest that with other problems going away, then, you know,

is a room for a run, a room for a rally.

And then obviously, you know, we have the market itself.

And what does the market say?

Again, listening to quite a lot of people just because, you know, I have

to.

I'm hearing a lot of negative sentiment.

Oh, this is still going on. Oh, this is, you know, still going on.

And look, this is an upthrust.

I don't see an upthrust yet.

If we would be talking about an upthrust, we probably would be talking

upthrust somewhere here.

But hold on a second. They did talk about this here.

Okay, well, maybe a more meaningful upthrust that starts with this change of

character.

They did talk about this. No, it's not that upthrust.

is an action where you would have an attempt

to go up, and then almost immediately come back into the range.

And here, we would have to look at the slope, actually.

So the upthrust would be more like this.

Not a very good representation of the upthrust.

So we would be looking for something like this, and it doesn't happen, or at

least we don't see it yet. We are actually in the trend channel, and we

facing the resistance that is based on this point right here. And this is just

in the lower part of the trend channel. If we're going to overcome here, and

we're meeting some resistance because of different...

trend lines right here different points of resistance but once we clear this

point right here and i think we're going to have like a little bit of a pause

around 32 32 50 then we don't have anything here and we're going to

really fast into 35.

um at least that's how it looks right now the way how it moves um

and then obviously we want to understand where the leadership is so technology

is the leadership I still would stick to Russell as well because it seems like

it wants to explode.

VXX and VIX are confirming the rally, so there is no bearish institutional

hedges that are coming in, and the ones that came in were unwinded literally in

a week or so. And that helped to push the price even higher.

Oil.

The latest update that I had for you guys yesterday is that we are trying to

break out.

And the way how I look at supply that came in and supply that is not

coming in at this level, it just basically suggests that supply has been

exhausted. And if supply is exhausted, then we probably will have a breakout or

at least an attempt.

At least we'll have some kind of probing.

attempt to overcome this slope and resistance.

And if we do, that's going to be a little bit dramatic.

That's probably going to have some kind of acceleration. And I think

acceleration through 62 with a lot of supply coming in and then into 64.

I would expect that we probably would make a slightly higher high and still

would stop somewhere at 64.

We're kind of going in this slope here.

So 64, rejection, and that high, something like that. But definitely

it feels like it wants to accelerate.

This would be in line with the market acceleration as well.

So if market starts to run away, I think, you know, that will be on the,

kind of, you know, Well, let's look at the economy. Let's look at earnings.

And it still would suggest that the prices are going to be higher and

going to bump it up.

Gold, I still don't see a very strong edge here. So I'm just staying away.

Remember how Wyckoff would say, if in doubt, do nothing.

Well, it's not like we're in doubt. We just don't see opportunity.

I would say when you don't see an opportunity, stay away.

Don't try to create any trades.

Having said this, I think probably if we are trying

to commit to the upside, we're probably going to go to 1540 and then meet some

kind of resistance.

And that would suggest that we might... create a trading range.

Another possibility here is just a really big capitulation on

market that is just going up, up, up, up, up.

And it runs away.

And then gold is just basically loses its value as a instrument of

safety for a moment.

But it still stays in some kind of trading range.

That would allow the gold to continue its secular drive up.

So I don't see that edge. I'm long -term gold, but I'm

not trying to pick any spots here and would trade cautiously to

the upside if opportunity presents.

All right.

That's it for the market update.

Let's go to some questions.

Chris is asking, could you show us what settings are required to show the rate

of change, relative strength, and horizontal volume on stock charts as I'm

to move across from my old UK chart provider?

Okay, and then a second question, if possible, in the last class of the

practical, show us what a reverse trend line is.

Okay, great.

So we're doing the relative.

Rate of change, we're doing relative strength, and then

we're doing horizontal volume.

Okay, so the one that we don't have is the volume.

So the volume, horizontal volume, is called on stock charts volume by price.

Here we go. So here are all three of them.

So let's just kind of like look at.

what we have here in the settings. So, horizontal volume, volume by price, and

it's gonna be in overlays.

Then under the indicators, you're gonna have a relative strength, so you're

gonna choose price, and you're gonna choose, for instance, you're gonna write

dollar sign symbol, division sign, and then a market proxy that you wanna use.

So, for instance, I could say symbol,

and I want to use, let's say, VTI as a market proxy.

Then I want to say, well, instead of the total market, I'm going to use this

sector. For instance, I'm going to use technology sector.

Well, I don't want to use technology sector.

I want to use a group, and then I would choose some kind of group that fits the

description.

the classification of the stock charts.

But then maybe I don't want to use the group either.

And I'm going to compare everything to Apple.

And that's how you build that relative strength line.

If you would like, you could use and in the overlay to the relative strengths,

you could have a moving average and you could identify the parameter

for that moving average.

And usually I do have, because it's right away a definition of the trend, so

kind of easily see what the trend is, and the moving average is sloping down,

trending down, and then the price action on this relative strength is

predominantly below the moving average, so it's a downtrend.

Rate of change.

This you could change. 21 is going to be your short term.

So this is one month.

63 is going to be your quarter.

252 is going to be your year.

And usually these are the parameters, and I also use this for moving averages

well. Why this? Because these are institutional type of timeframes.

A month, a quarter, and a year.

Usually, we would like to see, on the institutional side, deterioration within

two quarters of absolute return and relative return.

When we see that type of deterioration in two quarters, we probably would be

thinking that institutions would be probably giving up on their positions

this type of performance.

All right, so I think that's it. We've covered that. And now reverse use of

trend lines.

Okay, and let me just get rid of maybe this volume because it just occupies a

lot of real estate here for us. Okay, so how would we be doing the, let's say,

conventional way?

And let me just annotate this chart so that we would be accurate.

We would take a significant high.

for the downtrend and connect it with the next significant high, which comes

either here at this high, this high, or this high.

And you kind of have to play around with this and just kind of like see what

works. So I would say like this is probably the line.

Just gonna put a thick line like this so that you guys would see.

Why here? Well, because this touches it and this touches it. If I would be using

this one, it would not touch both or just have kind of like this up for a

of action. And then after this, what we want to do is, okay, well, just to kind

of check, would that work on the lows?

And if I would go like this, it's probably going to look like, yeah, it's

working. But in fact, I would say that it actually does.

Okay, so here is our conventional way, and then, you know, here was the

oversold, yeah, this would be the line.

So let me just do this again.

So this is the conventional way how we would do the trend lines.

Significant high, significant high, confirmed by this high, and then a

line that catches the majority of the support

points and then has an area of the oversold condition.

Now how would we be drawing the lines that

would be,

that

would be reversed lines, right?

Let me just take this color.

So we would identify first significant lows, and then

with that, we would draw that line first.

So please note that we are not using the highs in the downtrend. And then we

would try to find and connect the highs.

And in this case, I can't find anything except maybe for like this level right

here.

So this would be the use of reverse trend lines.

So in other words, conventional way, you always would be looking for your first

point, the highest or the lowest point in the trend, and then the highest or

lowest point of the same bias.

And that would be the conventional way.

The reversed use of trend lines, you would be looking for the

opposite.

to the bias the extreme on the opposite side and that would be in

the case of the downtrend oversold conditions right so as support

let me pick another example i'm not loving this example that much

I've actually been working a lot lately on trend lines, and it's a

fascinating creature.

By the way, please note that this is logarithmic, so I actually

find more and more value in using logarithmic charts

as a percentage chart in the use of the trend lines.

So here we would be probably connecting, you know, these highs, these highs.

You would be thinking, okay, all of this has that type of stride, right? Then we

see how this line is broken into two parts. And it's not that we've broken

uptrend. We're just traveling at the different stride now.

And here it is.

And I would say that this is our mean here.

so if that's the case i would just go and right away check the upper part okay

overbought condition i see it's working okay how about oversold condition right

here working too so this would be my trend with the mean in the middle

okay something like this

Something like this.

So that's the true trend channel that the price has been in this uptrend.

We could definitely have other definitions, right? So we could maybe

and some of you would be saying like why not this could we do this

yes we definitely can so this is the conventional way and you know you have

quite a few points here one two three four points before the break so for the

long -term investor you could have that stride um but probably this one is going

to be the most effective Now the key here, and something that I'm going to do

for the next WTC cycle, the key here is to define

where the mean is.

And this is what I'm finding visually is the best tool when identifying the

channel itself.

And you want basically this mean, the price, to kind of like, you know,

hug. hug and always find some kind of support and resistance

at the same time.

The more of those support resistance points you can find on the same line,

more it's gonna mean that this is the mean, this is the stride of the trend.

And then everything else, you know, is just around it, overbought and oversold

conditions.

And then you also want to, you know, project some additional lines, you know,

when you have extreme overbought and oversold conditions.

So something, you know, exciting.

And we'll look at it like this. All right, so hopefully we've resolved this.

Let's go to the anatomy of the trade.

And here, guys, I'm going to ask you a question.

What do you guys think? Should we keep this position or not?

And this is our last time when we look as a group at

this stock.

So I want you to give me your recommendations, let's say, for slightly

term. Let's say going into the first quarter of 2020.

The question from me to you, would you keep this position or not?

So we're not talking about the stop losses.

I'm just saying that we are holding this position right now. What does it mean?

Are we keeping it into, let's say, the first quarter of 2020 or not? And then

the second question is going to be, if we're keeping this position, then what

our stop loss?

So write it down. Let's see where we are with that.

All right, guys, what do you think?

What are your answers?

All right, and I would say that, you know, my expectation was that majority

you are going to have the same type of the decision.

If you're keeping this position, please let me know where the stop loss is in

your opinion, you know, where.

We should have it.

All right.

Okay, so all of you are saying keep it with different type of stop losses.

And they just range.

They range from 240 and then to

180. So kind of like a whole spectrum of stop losses.

Okay, so let's deal with probably the first decision here.

Are we keeping this position or not?

All of you are saying yes. I would probably say yes as well.

Why? Well, we're not going to go through the whole logic. We did the analysis

many times.

It looks like we have a minor sign of strength, and now the price just reacted

to the downside, but recovered relatively quick.

And we're staying still in the upper part of the gains that we've had since

So that's a bullish sign. That's a really good sign.

So that kind of keeps us in the position.

The question of the stop loss is much more complicated.

On the one hand, we want to move the stop loss to somewhere below 220

at the time when we have the breakout.

We don't want to necessarily have it.

here because right now, because we could have a retest and then a continuation,

something like that.

So therefore we need to look at the second point

of support where we are probably

gonna be at the point of a

catastrophic failure.

of the trade. And by the way, our original stop loss is here. So it's just

matter of where actually we are moving that stop loss to.

So where is that second support level?

Where do you guys see that?

So the first support level is at 220.

Where is the second support level?

Okay, 190.

Below 190.

Very natural spot right there.

Larry is saying one half way to 190.

Interesting. Okay, so Larry, is it going to be somewhere here at like 205?

Something like that?

Okay, great.

I would go for 205.

Larry, could you explain why?

What was your logic?

Why would we be looking at 205 as kind of like this point of, yeah, we could

move the stop loss and be closer to break even, and then at the same time,

know, have enough room for the price to move. But what's the

rationale there? Why this level?

I wonder if Larry is going to have an answer for us.

Well, I'm not sure, Larry, if you're typing in or not.

So if we're thinking about the second support level,

then the question is, where is that second support level?

So probably somewhere here in this action. And let me just see.

Have reversal significant bar. Yep.

That came from France.

I don't want to lose most of my gains. Larry is saying, yeah, absolutely.

So if we've entered, let's say, on this bar right here, let's say at the close,

and our stop loss was here, by moving it slightly above, we're effectively

decreasing our risk by a factor of two.

by 50%. So we should be somewhere here.

And if you're a little bit more conservative, put it slightly below 200,

198. So somebody had it.

Let me see.

I think Sharon had it at 198.

Yeah, so that would be a logical place to think that if the price would fail

there, then it's a catastrophic stop loss for us. And we would be losing half

our risk.

So not a full risk amount.

So probably that would be a strategy.

Well then, what about any add -ons?

Would we add here to the position?

I mean, do we have a conviction?

If we're keeping this position, we must have the conviction that the price will

go up.

So then therefore, is there any place where we could potentially add to the

position, you know, if the price confirms a movement to the upside? Where

guys think we could potentially open additional position?

Rick is saying 240.

So we are...

Assumption here is that we're going to wait for some kind of high or low.

270, Larry is saying, on the breakout.

So two different strategies.

If the price breaks out of ledge, Sharon is saying, okay, so something like

this. And ledge, I would assume, is this.

Yeah. So all of these are valid strategies. So we have,

you know, a limit by strategy reaction.

So in this reactionary strategy, we want to see some kind of reversal. This

would be a point of entry.

We could also have some kind of breakout strategy.

Absolutely.

We are still not at the point of the resistance.

And most likely, after this drop, we're probably going to make a new high.

And we're going to make an all -time high in this stock.

Okay, well, it's definitely been a lot of fun to go through this stock, to go

through this trade.

Thank you guys so much for your pick.

And even though it came late, it was a really good pick. So most likely the

group will select something else of the interest to them. So we will have to see

which stock it's going to be.

And if you're already in that new group, think about the stock that you would

like to trade.

There are definitely a lot of great stocks to trade.

I personally would probably, if I would be assigned to this, I probably would

trade Roku right now. That's probably my favorite stock right now.

Okay, on some sort of reaction.

But where and when? What about the big down bar from 260?

Yeah, so let's go a little bit into this. You know, Franz has a really good

point. This bar right here has emergence of the supply and an ability of the

supply, you know, to produce even more damage, although it's been damaging,

right?

So usually that supply is going to require some kind of retest.

And with this retest, we probably would see that high or low that

I believe Rick was describing, you know, if we go to 240.

So if that happens, reversal bar right here.

If we're going to have some kind of spring situation and then come back,

probably would need to assess it at this point just to see whether we would want

to add to the position or not.

Yeah, and Franz, good question, you know, right?

Where do we put the add -on?

That should be the question on my mind for sure.

Okay, bias game.

So it was a little bit mixed, and I thought that this would be a little bit

easier, you know, as a puzzle.

So it was probably like 50 -50 or 50 -ish, 50 -ish, something like that.

Let's do it in different ways.

Let's think about this puzzle in different ways. First of all, by the

we start the trading range, and this is the trading range under consideration,

and it starts with the selling climax, what is the bias at the selling climax?

Could you please answer me?

At the selling climax, what is the bias?

Okay.

At the selling climax, what is the bias?

Okay, and Sharon, please explain your answer.

All right, so everybody is saying down, down, down.

Sharon, what's the answer there?

So what's going on there?

So why are we saying that this is a down bias at this point? We have a

low, low, a very clearly defined low, low.

And on a short -term basis, we're definitely in the downtrend. We have low

high. low a high, low a low, and low a low.

We are in the downward bias.

Was there a lot of selling?

Was there selling?

Looks like there is selling here, looks like there is some selling here, and

then there is some more selling that has produced a synchronicity of the effort

and the result.

and there is an ease of movement with which the price moves down.

Sharon, the question was, at the point of selling climax right here, what is

bias?

So that was the question, if we're still there.

Okay, so at this point, at the climactic action, we are in the downward

bias. So our first assumption that this trading range is a redistribution.

And then we need to prove it otherwise, that

this is not a distribution.

So how do we do this? All right, well, we know that going into the secondary

test of the trading range, we usually will have that diminished supply

characteristic. Why? Well, because even in the downtrend, there comes a time

when the selling is exhausted.

And the selling has been exhausted for different reasons, actually for two.

The first one is that it's just exhausted because they sold and they

they sold.

and now they're not selling.

They just sold whatever they wanted at the price that they wanted, and now

they're done. The second reason why the selling is less here is because demand

has come in at the point of value at the climactic action. It produced some

presence here in the volume signature in the way how the price reacts.

And therefore, supply has been damaged a little bit. You know, it has

been observed.

And therefore, we are expecting some kind of rally.

So in the environment that is to the downside, when we look at the rallies,

key for us to understand is how does the rally behave?

Does it overcome the point of aggressive selling?

And could it kind of like test that point, stay there, and then continue

the move to the upside?

All right, well, what are the points that we would consider here are being,

know, kind of like aggressive points of selling? So anything where the volume

signature increases on the downside, then you want to

capture that in the price swing.

So here is your first zone.

And then you're gonna have your also second zone right here

on the way down and this is like the whole trading range that you have.

So your all bought and then your fair value.

So what do we see? That when the price comes to the overbought

condition.

How do we go there?

To me, it is average.

So there is not really a lot of institutional excitement.

We don't see a lot of momentum going up.

Reactions are actually, you know, somewhat of the ones where you're going

uncomfortable being, you know, like in this reactionary mode for a week and a

half or so.

So those were not that great.

We are staying up. We are committing to the upside.

So that's good because we have one progressive close -up, another

close -up. I would say even another one. So the price has the capacity to stay

up, but ultimately it drops down.

And this is just a function of phase B.

And we would say that we can't really overcome this supply yet. We definitely

can overcome this supply, but not the one.

that is at the top and this supply also will be associated with this selling

here um so how do we go down do we have any selling yes on the way down yes we

do and usually here you know on this type of selling we might actually be

thinking that we're going to have a rally from here so in a lot of cases we

would be thinking could be a potential facing and how would How would we

overcome that? Well, we would need to see some kind of confirmation

that there is a sustainability of this move.

If this is phase C, then the price should go above in the sign of strength

then back up.

It doesn't happen.

So here is the failure.

And then the price actually goes Much faster down, so momentum increases.

We see this in the spread.

Volume signature increases dramatically and quickly.

And then we have, you know, quite a substantial result to the downside where

we are making a new lower low and then below the original.

a support level of the climactic action.

We have maybe like a couple of closes here.

Attempt to go up and to come back into the value zone meets resistance

right away and meets a lot of volume.

This is the highest volume signature on this chart. So most likely supply.

And what kind of effect does this supply have?

This effect.

So if supply would have a more favorable kind of like price reaction,

it would look differently.

It would look something like, let me just

see if I could quickly find the example of this.

Okay, so imagine that, you know, This is the supply that comes in on this bar.

What do we have here?

It stays horizontal.

The testing of the supply is coming in, you know, is favorable.

It doesn't really show a lot of deterioration in the price action.

Whereas here, right away, we have such a strong deterioration. And then it comes

with an ease of movement on the diminished effort characteristics.

So therefore, you know, we were able to stay above, then we failed,

and we're kind of continuing with the whole down bias where we're just from

leg to another, we are confirming that this is a down move, and then the last

move to the downside that looks like a sprint, you know, returns back, and then

right away has a lot of supply.

And that defines that there is a new level there.

at which supply is being presented.

This was the NASDAQ composite in 2007, 2008.

I thought this chart would be easy just because you got to remember

your history. You got to know your history. You got to know your history in

terms of the index traded this way in 2007, 2008.

So this should be a recognizable chart for you.

All right, guys, this is it for the bias game. From now on, you're on your own.

This is the first chart that, you know, we are not going to discuss.

We are probably going to discuss it in the WICA practicum. We'll have maybe

two or three charts to discuss right away on the bias game.

So this is the next chart.

Have a look at this.

I wonder, I wonder, I wonder what you're thinking.

I wonder what you're thinking. Distribution or accumulation? Really

just teaching.

Let me know what you think.

While you're thinking.

While you're thinking, we are going to have the bias game over the holidays.

So just go to Twitter and you will find that, you know, there is

a poll. You could participate in the poll. And then on Fridays, usually the

solution comes.

All right. So what do you guys think?

Accumulation or distribution?

And you take us on this.

And by the way, thank you for sending me your score card on the bias game. I

think it's important to keep it.

And some of you just, you know, brilliantly, you know, going through the

bias game and, you know, your percent is really, really high.

Some of you are still, you know, kind of struggling here and there.

If there is some kind of frustration about that, I think that the key is just

kind of understand that you have to go through this grind.

At the beginning of your studies, you're going to be more wrong than

right because of kind of how you are at the beginning of this journey.

And then you have to acquire this new thinking, this new mentality. And once

do, then it's...

It's going to be a habit, and you will acquire this habit. So that's why

habituating in this thinking and the mentality really helps.

All right.

We have 50 -50 on this one.

We have 50 -50. All right. Well, we're going to look at this when we come back

for the new semester.

All right. Next question. This comes from Dimitri.

Let me see if Dimitri is here.

Yes. I notice that sometimes I place trades at work and I don't have time to

fill in a log until later.

I notice that I'm unsure how to properly document the quantifications when

trading options.

I notice that sometimes I'm not really sure what to put in the notes for the

analysis. I'm looking into the automated system that will pull information for

me. from TD Ameritrade and allow me to add notes, provide insights.

Do you recommend any trade log services?

Yes, absolutely.

And it was just so funny and whitewashing how Franz actually today

email with a recommendation for this type of software and for this type of

service. And he's showing us here how he's looking at the gold miners

juniors stocks and...

he could connect it to the chart, specific charts and specific timeframes,

then have the journaling, meaning each day he could fill out

his thoughts on what's going on.

Okay, well, I'm going to show you from a slightly different perspective.

Software that Franz recommended, we actually discussed in the June special,

Trust the Process.

So I'm going to show you the slides from there. This is a trade management

software. You have the capability with this software to bookkeep and also to

journal, which is very valuable.

And it's called TraderView.

So at the time, I kind of like was playing around and trying to figure out,

know, how to get the positions in there.

I'm not using it.

At this point, I'm kind of like populating everything in the Excel

which you could use as well.

But this is something that is so easy. Why not use this, right?

You could automatically upload all of your trades from the majority of the

brokerages or your brokerage accounts, or you could do this manually. So either

way would work.

You could look at your position, look at the charts,

have

some kind of note about the position.

So here I'm saying long -term position in Shake Shack, looking for the

long -term resistance target.

is around this area. It went to actually 108.

Add on the way up during meaningful consolidations. It's actually very

interesting how I keep saying this to myself and then I keep not doing this.

something to catch as a mistake.

This is exactly why the notes are so valuable.

I would not even remember that I...

you know had this intent to add to the position that my uh exit uh goal was at

96 97 close to 100 uh even though i exited um i think at 92

or even maybe slightly before like at 90 or 89

that's why it's so valuable coming back to that trade and just like revisiting

the notes what was the thinking

Then you could have more of

the analysis that you could

put as a journal, as a note here.

So, for instance, for each of the position, I could write down some kind

synopsis on what has happened during the week, also for the market as well.

You could import it from any of the broker.

In this case, TDM merit rate even is being used.

All right, and yeah, and that's it. So that would be my recommendation. This

seems like a very easy way to set up and just to follow.

I think that at some point on our website, we're going to have something

to this, but it's going to be extremely like Wyckoffian oriented type of

process.

All right, next question. This one comes from Simon. And Simon sent us,

you know, these charts before. This is the New Zealand dollar against the U .S.

dollar.

And a series of questions. I have questions around the identification of

time and of the breakout to the upside out of the trading range. Very

interesting. Again.

Hashtag oil, just because of the breakout, potential breakout there and

how we're looking at that.

Specifically from the blue arrow from November 19th,

which is here.

And then this is what one day, 60,

60 minutes.

And then this is 60 minutes as well.

And I think that we are looking at what we're looking at the November, right? So

this is the period that we're looking at right here before this break. So we're

looking at this breakout right here. Okay, I just wanted to make sure.

I've checked the following items when assessing the price would move up or

downwards.

Check each reaction's peak volumes.

to a certain in supply is decreasing as time progresses.

I'm sorry. Check reactions peak volumes to a certain in supply,

if supply is decreasing as time progresses.

Okay.

So we're looking for the diminished volume characteristics and diminished

characteristics. Correct.

Why is this important? Because you want to see that that supply

is being taken by someone else and the volatility starts to diminish. So you

could see how there are two textures here in this trading range. One has a

of volatility and then suddenly that volatility is smaller. There are some

pockets of volatility, but even those pockets are not that, you know,

threatening as before so this is a good observation for each reaction check each

fragment of price spread and volume if it makes an intermediate swing law as

part of the largest uh reaction to a certain end supply uh is decreasing okay

yeah so basically we're kind of like looking for that progression of the buy

right so uh simon is basically saying that there is a progress

of buying with the diminished supply characteristic for each of the reactions

yes we could definitely do that check each swing low to see if supply has been

observed to see if price would move up without resistance okay check price

structure strength higher low being created and higher high but at minimum

higher low in my assessment i would expected price to move out of the

range around November 25th, where it has low supply, but the

trading range continues for some time further.

I'm still a little bit confused with the application of action test

confirmation. Are you able to point some of these behaviors on the chart so that

I would be able to apply this a little bit better based on the single bars?

the reactions release.

Okay, so let's deal with the breakout first.

So the whole idea that supply should go lower is correct.

We kind of see supply much higher in this area, then it's being observed

this area, and then it just becomes somewhat duller, not necessarily dull,

duller, and supply is not that great.

So low supply would identify some kind of at least attempts to

break out and then the true breakout.

So then coming to the second question, why wouldn't we have that breakout

before? It looks like the volume signature was going down.

So we would be thinking, anticipating that, yeah, supply goes down. We're

to have a valid breakout.

Well, apparently.

You know, this high volume signature is not just demand, but supply as well. So

we still have some selling.

So we need to figure out the timing when supply is still going to be present and

yet the reaction to the supply is going to become less than what we've had

before. And that actually happens in this area.

This is a change of behavior.

And it tells us that at this point, yeah, somebody is absorbing the supply.

And then once that purchase has happened in activity, then again attempt to push

down, again absorption.

And you kind of gauge what kind of supply you have, right? So this is the

of supply.

This is the level of supply. It's still pretty high, not going to break out.

And then as it goes down, Boom.

Finally, we have something that is really, really, really, really small

in a supply signature.

And now we're going up and we are closing at the highest level, but we're

failing. But we closed at the highest level, so this means that most likely

next attempt is going to be more successful.

And why? Just because supply just completely dries out.

The logic is correct here.

Look at the long -term structure.

Think about the implications of the breakout. That's number one.

Look at the short -term structure and then try to figure out what's the

of the supply and demand and where supply is just so exhausted that demand

going to just take it out.

And then look for that synchronicity. Where is that synchronicity, by the way?

This is not going to be synchronicity because supply comes in. Not

because there is no commitment above.

No synchronicity because no commitment above.

No synchronicity because supply is coming in.

This is where it became synched on the

increased effort and increased result.

And that's usually when the breakout would happen on that synchronization.

So we're looking for that as well.

All right, good question. Thank you, Simon.

All right, let's talk about something else.

We're almost at five, 10 to five, feedback loop, and then the trader's

development. This is usually the last couple of pieces that I give to you guys

in the practicum. We start with the...

10 ,000 hours that we need to spend, in my opinion, 10 ,000 charts that we need

to analyze qualitatively.

I'm going to repeat this, qualitatively. This means not just like a quick look

and then this is my bias, no.

It's more about spending time and working on the chart from left to

right, looking at each swing.

at all of the bars, analyzing.

And if we could do 10 ,000 charts, analyze 10 ,000 charts like this, we're

definitely going to progress.

So we started with that, you know, that discussion on the quantity versus

quality. And we're going to finish with the feedback loop and the trader's

development. So first, let's talk about the feedback loop.

And this is something that is a step in the trust process.

kind of like guideline that we have created for you.

This is something that's going to be unique in the new Trusted Process

number two. Even though I talked about this and I talked with the process coach

about this feedback loop, it kind of is going to become a cornerstone

of a change in that process.

So first of all, let's just go through it.

And this is an article that I wrote and published way, way back.

So as you can see, 2013.

The editor of this article was Hank himself.

And we actually had an opportunity to discuss multiple parts of this

small, but, you know, kind of like very effective as a tool article.

Usually we...

When we are faced with some kind of decision and think about any of the most

recent decisions in the market that you did, you're going to be having some kind

of fight or flight response, right? So this is where

you're going to have either withdrawal

and you're not going to perform a certain behavior that is needed.

or you're going to fight and you're going to figure it out and kind of go

through this whole process.

So a feedback loop process allows us in the moment to

make sure that we are behaving correctly, that we are making the

decision, which is based on our trading plan.

So let's go through this process really quickly.

If our action to take was either entry, stop loss, or let's say we might

just increase position size, decrease position size, move a stop loss, exit,

type of action that you have with your position.

So I'm giving here an example.

We are entering Google at 600, and those were very old prices in 2013, right?

And we are not following the rules.

So how would that go?

In the feedback loop process, we're gonna question our decisions.

We're gonna question our behaviors and we're gonna ask, are we implementing

action according to the rules of our system?

Do any other rules contradict our action?

Are all of the rules satisfied by this action?

And then what is the evidence that this action is done by the rules?

So in the example where we are not following the rules, we're going to say

are not implementing this action by the rules.

Yes, there are some other rules that contradict this action.

And no, not all of the rules are satisfied.

And what is...

the evidence that it is not by the rule, well, rule number X in our trading plan

states the opposite.

So in this step, if we're doing it incorrectly and you're asking yourself

question before you make that trading decision, whatever that decision is, you

can catch yourself in the moment and become aware that you're doing something

wrong.

I'm entering Google at 600.

Am I implementing this action according to the rules of my system?

No.

Okay. Wow.

I'm not doing this by the rules. Then why do I want to do this?

Well, maybe I'm excited in the moment. I'm seeing some price action that

me and it kind of, you know, connects to my...

past emotional experiences at the same spot.

And unconsciously, I am getting excited that maybe I'm going to have a

profitable trade, so I'm jumping in.

This is an unconscious way of trading.

A more deliberate, conscious, and qualitative way of going through the

is basically checking yourself up along the way.

all of the decisions that you're making around this particular position.

By the way, I want to point your attention, especially over the whole

day's break, if you have a chance, watch the videos that Franz and I are

creating for the Anatomy of the Trade series on YouTube channel that we have.

Those are not...

very long uh they are usually maybe on average like uh 10 15 minutes long and

there we're discussing different trades that we've made either him or i and you

know this feedback loop step is critical in that analysis

because as through the post analysis we define the mistakes and then we

could insert it into a specific

in the process and make sure that each time that we get to that point in the

process, let's say we're going through the analysis and then we have this

mistake that we commonly make, so we could ask ourselves a question, are we

making this mistake again as a part of the weekly, daily process?

And this is something that we will discuss in the Trusted Process Part 2.

What happens next? Let's say that I said no and I still want to open the

position. The next question is going to be, if you do follow the system's rules,

if you do not follow the system's rules, are you a disciplined and profitable,

consistent trader?

Well, if I'm not following the rules, then I know that I'm not. I'm not going

to, in the long run, I might have occasional wins trading

unconsciously, but I'm most likely going to have losses in

the long run. So you want also to know the consequences of your actions. So

we are doing is we're becoming aware in the moment, and then we're doing the

cost -benefit analysis right away.

So we are identifying, yeah, I'm not going to be successful, so there is an

identity.

question there, and then benefits and cost.

I will potentially have a loss and have emotional frustration.

That's going to be the consequence.

And then the last question, what is your choice then?

I'm actually okay. And I tell sometimes, you know, students in the private

sessions,

If you're going to take this decision against your rules and you're fully

that you're doing this and you're also aware of the consequences that it could

be a loss and it could produce an emotional frustration and you're still

go for it, I'm actually okay with that.

What I'm not okay with when I do this or when...

students do this and then we discuss this is that we already know how to

this and then we are actively choosing to disregard this process.

And this is the process where obviously we are creating so

much value for ourselves in the way how we change the behavior. We can

abort the entry.

wait for the system signal and that way we will avoid this loss

but not only the loss if you think deeply about what you do here with the

feedback process is that you're not just avoiding the loss you're avoiding the

repetition of the behavior that forms you know the identity of who you are as

a trader and more so than you know

As a person as well.

If you're consistently making the mistake and then producing a loss after

after loss, how would you think about yourself?

What kind of trader do you think you are as a conversation in your head, as a

self -talk conversation?

What kind of answer are you going to have to that?

And then how could that spiral into something even worse?

So you could see how our behaviors produce our actions, you know, produce

consequences that spread out not just in trading but, you know, throughout our

whole life.

So, therefore, it's extremely important for us, you know, to make sure that

we're going correctly through the feedback loop process and we're

correct behaviors.

In this example, exit Apple at 400.

We are following the rules in this example.

Are we implementing this action according to the rules? Yes.

Are there any other rules that would contradict this action?

No. That's with double checking.

Are all rules satisfied?

Triple checking. Yes.

Then what is the evidence that this is by the rules? Rule X of my trading plan

confirms the validity of the exit action.

Four times we're confirming the same thing. Why? Well, because we are so

stubborn as people. We are so set in our ways, and it's really hard to

change. Very rarely I find people in life that change easily. It's their

characteristic.

There are quick changes.

But for a lot of us, we need a lot of repetition.

We need to break that habit. So we need to make sure that we're repeating this

multiple times.

Okay? Well, if all of this by the rules, and if I do this, then am I

going to be a disciplined and successful trader? Yes.

You will be, that will be your identity.

And then what would be the consequence of my action and my identity like this?

Potential win, consistency of the system implementation, but also emotional

comfort and confidence that comes with this. And then what's the choice that

going to make?

Proceed with the action.

exit action.

And then whatever this is going to bring you to, whether it's going to be a win

or loss, that's already for the post analysis.

All right, so what do I want to do with this for you guys? I just want you to

read this article.

And I want you to think about how you could incorporate this into your trading

and into your process. And I want you to keep in mind that going into 2020,

first quarter, we're going to have Trusted Process 2. I want you all there.

This is going to be something that we're going to establish. And there is

something that is very, very exciting that's coming up with that particular

product.

We're going to have a group that's going to be dedicated to the process.

And that's all what I'm going to say at this point. But, you know, very excited.

Okay. And then the last piece that I usually would give at this point is

the table for the trader's development.

I have created this table back in 2010, 2011.

This was...

On my previous website, if you guys could believe this, it was called

Trading Success.

And I was trading a lot at that time. And the most important skill to me at

that level was just the mental mindset.

So I was working a lot on that.

And that's why my coaching actually came from that first.

Hank invited me to teach Wyckoff Method and then it kind of like took over.

What are we looking for here in this table?

We just want to recognize where we are. What kind of trader are we?

And we want to understand where we want to go.

You look at this from the different level.

you also look at it from the point of consciousness that you have and from the

concept of being, doing, and having.

So being is obviously being the highest level concept and

having is the lowest.

So at the beginning, the beginner is always going to be kind of like having a

low self -awareness.

Just not necessarily generally, but in most cases, that would be a case as

but specifically as a trader.

There is no self -definition as a trader.

There is usually a mindset of getting reach quickly.

being overwhelmed with the information and doesn't know how to approach

So if you could remember yourself during those first months

of trading where you could potentially have been with that type of mindset.

Obviously, no methodology, so it's still in the process of searching for the

methodology. Obviously, no backtested trading plan.

And even sometimes, in a lot of cases, no trading that is being done.

And on the emotional condition, it's all about

incongruences with trading, with low self -awareness, incorrect

emotional responses during trading.

There is no daily routine.

And as a result, either no trading, major losses, or occasional wins.

And I think that all of us have been there, right? So where am I, let's say,

relative to where I've been from this first column? Okay, so let's see.

I would say awareness of self is present for sure, and sometimes I get to this

level.

I would say probably I feel this year more here. Last year, probably here.

Definitely feel this.

Definitely know this.

Definitely know this.

Probably here. This is a really hard state for me, so I'm kind of, you know,

awareness of awareness is being an observer of the observer.

So I've been practicing this, but not lately, and, you know, my state is

obviously not there.

So I know that there is a lot of thing on the awareness that I still have to

work on.

Yes, I would say this, and I still need to work more on profit management,

and you could see this from the anatomy of the trades even today, you know, as

we were recording this.

It was interesting to see how my selection is great, my point of entry is

and then add -on, which is the profit management, and exit are suboptimal.

So therefore, those are my two big things to work on. So risk management is

defined, but the profit management is definitely something that needs to be

worked on.

I would say that I'm switching between consistent periods and long periods of

discipline trading. And then I still have some relapses here and there. But

years, you know, and with more experience, you kind of see that those

are going to be smaller and less frequent.

And again, smaller in size. So if you had big drawdowns before, then, you

after a period of time, your drawdowns, you know.

If you study, if you actively participate in the improvement, they are

like going down.

Emotional conditioning.

I would say that definitely more here.

I wouldn't say that my conditioning is almost automatic.

So still, I have to be in the process of...

reading my newsletters on the mental

state in the morning. That's the routine that I always do.

And that brings me to that level of awareness.

But I think this is the process where I'm still choosing to be aware rather

than still being automatic.

And just my background, it just dictates that.

I'm probably going to spend more time acquiring those emotional skills than

someone else.

Emotional conditioning is part of the routine.

So right now, probably, again, I'm jumping here. And right now,

my life is extremely hectic.

And I would say that I'm probably even just sometimes here.

I would say that here I want to reside the majority of the time, and I am

majority of the time, but then I'm kind of jumping slightly ahead, and then

sometimes I'm just getting tired, and I'm aware that I need to be better

conditioned, but it just does not happen.

And you have to be kind of realistic and straightforward with where you are and

be extremely honest.

As a trader, as a successful trader, That is one of the characteristics.

All right, then responses.

I would say between this and this. So kind of like very, you know, I'm feeling

more and more unconscious about how I'm mentally responding to trades.

You know, I don't have...

Big emotional response, whether it's a win or loss, even if it's a big win or

it's a larger loss than usual, usually that's just kind of like not

spacing me out at all. Daily routine.

So definitely developed.

Probably needs to be a little bit more a part of self.

So this means that the routine has to be.

developed a little bit more and consistency has to be a little bit more

but definitely here. And then the results, definitely it's a choice.

I have consistency.

There are some periods where I'm extremely consistent.

There are some periods where I'm inconsistent.

And I think that there is a definition of the market that kind of plays with

So there are certain market environments where I'm more consistent as a trader.

And I think it's also a function of how I studied for that particular period.

So usually those are going to be trends and more consistent in trending

environments. But, you know, that's very natural. And then obviously during the

trading ranges, we're going to be less consistent. So that's how it comes.

I would say somewhere here.

something like this, I still would have some drawdowns. Those are highly

associated with the selection that I have on the momentum side.

Usually when there is counter reaction all of the momentum stocks are going to

produce you know some kind of drawdown so those I regularly go through and

regularly kind of like think how I could mitigate those so one of my mistakes

getting out earlier out of the position was the you know more size than needed

is all about that so kind of like looking into this right now so you could

and you can kind of like define where you are predominantly in what column

um so obviously i'm putting myself here into the advanced columns but at the

same time i'm realizing at any point of time i could jump back and i could

regress i could relapse and it's extremely important to uh you know stay

humble stay honest with yourself and try to figure out what's next right so i

know for sure what i need to do i need to

be more consistent with the process, and then this part will take care of

itself. And then obviously this part will take care of itself.

So more of the routine on the top of what I do. And I want you guys to go

through this yourself and kind of like go through the table one

column at a time and just think about, you know, how...

The development happens here.

And then try to identify where you are. And then after you identified where you

are for each of those columns and for each of those lines, then try to think

what do you else need. And try to be as honest with

yourself as possible.

So that's your homework.

And then another question.

This one comes from an index. I usually swing trade momentum stocks.

My problem is that even mild market correction leads to 20, 30 % drawdown

peak equity.

Something what I've described to you just on the previous slide, right? So

momentum trading is always going to produce that drawdown off the peak. This

very frustrating as then I spend a lot of time.

and trades getting back to peak equity. I'm wondering if there is a way I could

exit at the top of the swing without giving back too much of my gains at the

same time capturing the majority of the swing.

I'm posting the recent trade as an illustration of my entry and exit. Is

way I could have exited earlier?

I feel I could have done better. I have taken

WTC in your swing trading course and I'm subscribed to the WMT. I know one sign

to expect a consolidation is a change of character to exit on that change of

character bar.

Is there a place I could have exited the stock and preserved most of my gains?

Thanks for your teaching. I think avoiding big drawdowns is the biggest

challenge for me.

Okay, well let's see.

Entry, exit.

All right, well, I would say that we could definitely optimize it a little

more in terms of the exit, as I understand correctly. And let me

this up in

stock chart.

The key here, I think, from the beginning is just what kind of

trade are you going to have here, right? So we have quite a

causality right here, and we are in the correct group right now that is showing

a lot of outperformance.

So what is our intention?

Is our intention for a short -term swing trade, the one that we're having here?

Or is it something where we want to catch a much larger move?

So I'm going to assume here, Anindya, that the intention was the short term

swing trade.

Just because how you exited suggests that it was a short term.

But as you could see, we're probably going to go even higher from here.

Okay, so how would we deal then if this is such a short time frame that we have?

How would we deal with the exit?

Well, first of all, I want to recognize and I want to take a bow for the trade

itself. I think this is a really good recognition of the breakout.

Supply is coming in, but look at the test.

The test is very favorable with the movement to the upside.

So we are expecting the continuation of momentum to the upside. We also expect

that the momentum...

is gonna fade at this point.

And that we're gonna have more of the laborious move up than we've had before.

So at the first signs of deterioration, we should get out.

Where is that first sign?

Right here on this bar.

And then this is just a sign of weakness.

So we want to get out on the way up.

So this bar right here, this first red bar, this is going to be the bar that

confirms a low or high plus reversal, and that would

equate for the exit. So you would optimize your exit a little bit better

let's say, here.

Alternatively, you could just exit at the close of this bar itself.

Also, a good exit right there.

Another suggestion is just to maybe even go to let's say one hour

and just try to find something there

in terms of the exit.

And it's probably gonna be close to the exit that we saw in the daily because

they're just so closely connected.

So you could see that there is a trend here and then this break suggests

that I'm done.

So you could kind of wait into the close and close your position here,

or you could wait until the next day, close your position here, or you can

until the break and you close the position here.

Where position was closed somewhere here, probably on the intraday does not

any sense, right?

So again, if you're in this type of swing, where after the

initial jump, you kind of have this movement, but the momentum fades,

and you are in the short -term swing position, use intraday for your exit,

and define where you would exit if that exit is going to be so fast.

All right.

So just kind of like optimizing the exit a little bit more.

in terms of where the first deterioration comes and then on the test

highs, if it fails, you know, this is where you would want to get away.

All right.

I think we're good. I think that we can go into the exercise at this point. So

522. All right, guys.

I think that's it for today. I think that's it for...

for this semester and for this course.

I want to again thank you, all of you, for participating.

Again, I thought this was probably one of the most active practicum

cycles that we have had.

I'm really pleased with the structure, you know, the class itself now.

I would love to receive your testimonials. That's number one.

And secondly, give me some kind of feedback.

What else can we improve?

And we will send out some questionnaires soon and going into our early

2020. But you know me, I'm always kind of like looking for the new

ways to improve things. So I would love to hear your opinion as to what else and

how else we can improve this class.

And I really, really would like to see you.

So sign up, you know, and let's just continue with the studies. Let's just

of like keep going and keep improving and keep working on our skills.

With that, have a wonderful holiday season.

Health and wealth to you, your families, and to all of the people that are in

your circle.

I really appreciate all of you as members of our community and as members

this class.

It was a lot of fun.

and hopefully we will reconnect at the beginning of the new year. With that,

guys, thank you so much, and I'll see you in the new 2020.

Thank you, and bye -bye.