All language subtitles for Session 14

Hello everyone, today is December 10th,
and this is session number 14, so we

have only two sessions left, today and
next week of the Wyckoff Trigion

Practicum course.

These are the last two sessions of the
Wyckoff Trigion Practicum course as we

know it.

We're going to convert this into Wyckoff
Trigion course part two, which we still

will call Between Us.

the practicum because this is where we
practice. We develop the skill. Last

session, December 17th, December
special. We're going to start on

excited about that too because there's
going to be some new ideas, some new

material that I'm going to give you,
something that I'm currently thinking

about.

testing so you kind of will see this on
the top of that we'll talk about a long

-term system you know how do you
recognize the stability of the uptrend

do you actually trade it uh long term
and then trade around it so um it's

to be both new information kind of like
new ways of how we could look at things

and then also um you know new uh kind of
like a repeated

tactical trading decision making.

Something that we've studied, but maybe
we haven't studied to that depth.

So we're just developing the depth of
that material.

Only two sessions, this Thursday and
then the Thursday after that, and then

we're going on the break.

Wyckoff Trading Course, the practicum,
now Wyckoff Trading Course Part 2, the

practicum, registration is open for the
spring semester of 2020.

We're going to start on January 7th.

I have quite a few alumni in this class
from the previous cycle.

Some of you guys even came from the
cycle before.

And I think that...

we kind of probably are finding a very
compelling way of

covering the markets and at the same
time covering the depths of the

and at the same time practicing and
practicing and practicing.

I think the bias exercise has become
kind of like a thing, almost like an

obsession in the last two cycles.

If you're really, really into the bias
exercise, and this is what I'm hearing

from you guys. I'm just going to put a
little bit of the side note here.

I'm hearing a lot of honest responses in
your emails that goes like this.

The bias game shows me where I am, and I
see that clearly now.

So that tells me a lot of things.

Not only about, you know, the person
that you are, you know, in terms of,

you know, looking at yourself
realistically and just saying like,

this is where I am.

And I am acknowledging this. And then
what's next for me? It's kind of

liberating to say that I don't know
something.

I'm not as good at something.

This exercise shows that.

So I need to work more on that. How do I
do this? Okay, well, I'm already in the

class.

So use this opportunity to extract as
much value with this new

awareness that this exercise brings. So
kind of like on a very fundamental

level, that's how I see it. That's how I
view it. So thank you for those honest

emails. I really appreciate this. As you
know, I am trying to be as transparent

with you guys as...

As I can with all of my trades,
actually, the company is going to

huge, huge policy in 2020 where we're
going to be extremely transparent

with everything that we do, everything
that we call, everything that we call in

the markets and so on and so forth.

And that's just going to kind of like
elevate the overall quality of the

offerings that we have.

For those of you who are interested in
repeating the course, and obviously

bias game never repeats itself. It's
something different. And as you know,

are so many questions that we address,
so many exercises that we go through.

I always present, you know, kind of like
new ideas in this setting because this

is kind of like our R &D. And I like to
play around in this class.

So, early bird is still on until the
first week

of January.

Only $600 for 15 sessions as an alumni
for early bird.

So, take advantage of that if you plan
on continuing with the practicum.

I think it's a very convenient forum for
those of you who have nine to five

jobs.

If you can come home, especially if
you're on the East Coast or

if you can come home and just once a
week even devote two, two and a half

just to this material and just to think
once a week.

intensively about this material but do
this consistently week after week after

week and then follow the market and
apply those concepts in the market as

as you kind of like we're going through
the market and i'm showing you the

thinking about how the market the
structure develops you are acquiring the

mentality as well as we go through those
exercises whether this is just an

exercise the buyers game or we are
looking at the market or anatomy of the

it's the logic it's the how we think you
know about those things that needs to

be installed so repeating the course is
obviously a valuable thing to do

today as usual market update anatomy of
the trade buyers game q and a's

on the trade analysis we're gonna touch
upon this. I'm going

to see if we have even time for this.

But I want to start on this, and there
is some exciting news about this.

And then on the exercise, we're either
going to do tape reading or a bias game,

so we'll see what we're going to do.

Rick is saying, we hear your heart, and
we now join with you with our whole

heart as well. Well, thank you. Yeah,
heartfelt.

Thank you.

As usual, Everything is for educational
purposes only. Stop the recording and

read the whole disclaimer.

First question is from Anindo.

I'm sending you a chart of Roku with
three analog bars circled. So they are

circled here, here, and then here.

After the first circled area one, Roku
made a bear flag.

and headed down. After the second gap
down bar, circled area two, Oroku

and went up.

On Monday, Oroku gapped down and then
rallied, still in today at the

My question is, can we tell based on
analogs and Wyckoff analysis whether

goes down into a potential phase C test
of the low? So does it rally to the top

of the range?

and eventually breaks out well what a
question

what a question

well my first reaction when i read this

question maybe like five days ago or so
was that um

they're actually not all analogs i think
this bar in the middle

let me just take another color

I think this bar in the middle right
here, this is more an analog of the stop

action where we actually stop in. So I
would probably have them like this.

Yeah, so second is probably a little bit
questionable here.

But the first one and the third one,
those look like analogs. Why?

Well, because we have a movement to the
upside in both cases.

And then there is supply that's coming
in, and that produces a synchronicity

with the result. The price does move
freely to the downside, and we have this

the same here.

So supply increases, and we see the gap
and then continuation.

So in a way, that's probably just the
beginning of the move.

The question is, how would we know?
Would we know from here that we're going

have some kind of...

phase C?

Well, that's something that's still yet
to be fully

developed as a knowledge.

I could give you some of the things that
I'm thinking about and that

I kind of use in

my analysis, and that is that phase C
could you know take different

shapes and forms and uh you know the
precursor of the move into phase c

is always going to be what happens in
phase b so therefore

uh it becomes a question of how do you
identify phase b in the correct way

and then judging what kind of structure
phase b has then that would mean

that certain development into phase C is
possible.

This is the material that is coming up,
and again, practicum is gonna be

probably one of the first places where
it will be.

Here, I would probably just not even
think about the structure, I would be

thinking about

Volume and price effort and the result
and kind of would try to build maybe

an understanding What is going on here?

So let's just kind of walk through this
a little bit and let me just see

A little bit updated information.

Okay, so nothing happened really in the
last Four

days

The volume came down, and yeah, all
right.

Okay, so the way how I would view this
is that we went really fast to the

upside. There was an overbought
condition here on a much larger channel,

that produced some selling, also some
selling into the news that Disney was

coming up with its own streaming
services. Apple was coming out with its

streaming services and that put the
pressure on Roku and Roku

sold out really quickly.

In my opinion, we've just experienced a
major sign of strength in

Roku since the bottom end that we had
here in phase C. Please note that

this price here was from $20, and this
price here was 170, so

plus 150 points on a sign of strength.

What does it mean?

I mean, let's calculate in the
percentage from, let's say, what is it,

28, I'm sorry, from 28.

Could somebody really quickly calculate
what's the percent on that?

So imagine having such a huge, massive

major sign of strength.

You are gonna have a lot of volatility
in the stock and if it comes down to

100,

then you probably have some kind of
extremely oversold condition.

So this was a very interesting place to
actually initiate a long -term campaign.

And then within different reactions and
different

effort to push the price down,

an effort

slightly diminishes.

And the result is still higher lows.

So at this point, we would be thinking
that there's going to be a continuation.

Now, ironically, we're coming to the
answer of the question

that we've seen here.

You know, how could we define phase C?
Well, if we're going to fail here, like

one of the scenarios that Aninda is
catching here.

If we're going to fail here, most likely
we're going to try to retest 100, which

will give us another interesting
opportunity maybe to add to a long -term

campaign. And maybe this materializes
into phase C.

And I'm thinking, well, could we
potentially kind of see if

what's possible?

Well, I'm seeing that there is a lot of
buying on this way up.

It was such a consistent way up. I
remember just looking at it on the daily

basis. And I started day trading this
rally.

And I started day trading this rally
into Friday.

And what was crazy about this, I'm
trading this rally on the intraday basis

Friday with weekly options that are
expiring literally in five hours.

and I'm making profits, and my position
actually doubled, more than doubled.

That's how this movement was. There was
so much buying, it was like a pure

effort comes into the market and just
pushes us up.

So I'm not sure if with this type of
buying, we would

have the retest of 100.

100 seems like such a value proposition
right now that somebody would be

probably taking the price, you know, the
stock at, you know, 120.

In this case, they're taking the stock
at around 130 already.

So I'm thinking that it might actually
stay, but I would rather trade it than

guess, you know, what's going to happen.
So I like the scenario here that Ninder

is, you know, picturing.

If we are breaking this trend line that
we are on right now, well, most likely

then I'm not just doing anything and I'm
just trying to see what's going to

happen around $100, so maybe $120.

What kind of reaction we're going to
have here? If reaction is positive,

it be another opportunity to come in and
add to the long -term position or maybe

initiate it?

And if it rebounds, like this is this a
true phase c so that's how i probably

would be thinking about this but there
is a lot of knowledge behind this

question that still is coming up you
know we're going to go into definitions

different phases different variations
and so on so forth and that material is

still ahead 540 540

Wow, that's a massive sign of strength.

So think about if this major sign of
strength is 540,

then what would be the return on the
actual

trend? So granted, it still has to
materialize. It still has to even

finish the backing up action.

And you can think of this not
necessarily of the backing up action.

reason why I'm thinking that this is a
backing up action is because the texture

of this run is kind of like fluid. There
is no changes of

character in the way how the price went
up. So it looks like once went up, and

that's the way where they were getting
into the position.

And now they're still getting into the
position. Look at the volume signature.

Quite significant.

And this kind of like consistency and
persistency with which institutions are

getting into this position, they don't
care about price change from 120 to

160.

That's kind of insane, right?

What does it tell us? They're probably
thinking that it's going to go much

higher.

All right. But I think that with Roku,
it's all about timing.

especially you know with the momentum
stock like this you have to time it

correctly um or you have to come in with
the size that does not bother you even

if the stock is not going in your
direction for some time and that's kind

like the strategy that i have with this
stock all right let's look at the

markets really quick again

Whenever supply comes, it gets absorbed.

Whenever supply increases, it gets
absorbed. Whenever supply

comes again, it has no capacity to

consistently push the prices down.

some demand comes in. And even if supply
is going to overwhelm demand at this

point, and we're going to have maybe
like another low here, maybe like

higher low, that only would point out,
we might have

some kind of consolidation. We might go
into like, you know, some kind of

prolonged trading range into the end of
the year, maybe into like, you know, the

first week of January.

I would say that probably all of this,
Santa Claus rallies, looking at how

consumers behave and how liquidity is
available,

looking at the news cycle.

It seems that it's possible that we
could have strength into the close of

year and we could have strength into the
beginning of the year. And that's

actually kind of like how it feels.

So, again.

Every time supply comes in, it has some
kind of

inability to push the price down for a
significant period of time just because

somebody comes in and buys and that
sustains the rally.

So this is where we are.

What is leading?

Russell 2000.

This is where we would like to be. Small
caps, mid caps, a lot of health stocks,

a lot of bank stocks.

And, you know, they are showing
especially health stocks.

Obviously, you know, had some reaction,
but still the runs that they had,

they're showing some strength.

What else could we say here on oil?

I think the critical levels here is just
to hold between 58 and 60.

And actually, it is more critical even
just to kind of get away from here.

Because the more we stay here, the more
there is a possibility that we might

kind of like slip down again.

And we don't have a lot of room for
error in this case because the support

consistently goes up.

And then at some point, this type of
support could fail.

And this is actually coming back to
Aninda's question about potential phase

How could we know in phase B? Well, this
kind of looks like it, where we are

from the oversold condition, go quickly
up, and then we consolidate in phase B.

And that would suggest that...

institutions got in into this position
getting into this position not willing

give up and when you know the ones that
actually got into the position maybe

they were you know early adapters when
they see price deterioration

as other institutions are not getting in
that's where they're gonna give up

their positions and they're gonna
capitulate and that will produce a move

downside into potential phase C.

We don't know whether this is going to
be a high -low or low -low.

We would judge that as the price goes
down by the character with which the

moves down.

But here is that scenario.

So in a way, when we think about tactics
here, We basically don't want the price

to go through this level or come in down
around this level.

One half of the big spread of this bar
below of the

loss commitment to the upside, those are
very important levels. So maybe a stop

loss somewhere, you know, if we want to
be extremely conservative, somewhere

slightly below this level.

But then if we're...

If we want still to see with which way
there is a possible downfall here, then

probably this is the more catastrophic
level. This is where I would be keeping

my stop loss if I'm still thinking long
-term campaign.

So oil is in a very interesting spot.

Gold, I couldn't find an edge for quite
some time.

I think...

that we're still not fully there.

All of the attempts to go up do not have
a lot of demand signature behind it.

So I think that if we are going to have
a rally, that rally is going to be more

a technical rally on the supply
exhaustion rather than

on the presence of the demand.

Obviously, when we start...

we break to the upside, we might attract
some speculative demand

that could come. And I think that maybe
there might be some selling into it.

But the rally is possible. I see that
the rally could happen to these levels

right here. This looks like a good trend
line.

A break here would probably signify
quite a lot because

This would be a deviation from the trend
that we're in.

And imagine if

we are breaking this trend right here.

So this would mean that we could
actually come back even to these levels.

which I doubt that it will happen. I
think that once the price goes and

an oversold condition right here, I
think the institution still would see

as a very, very attractive value, and
some of them will jump on the board.

But until we see more bullish action
that

actually has some demand signature
behind it, I think I would stay away.

And I thought that this was actually a
really good decision to stay away for

like a month from gold and not trade
there. So I'm really happy with that.

All right.

That's it for the markets.

Let's go to the next question. This
comes from Simon.

Have I labeled the WICA phases and
events correctly as a horizontal

is it?

end up sloping structure.

I second guess the horizontal structure
since phase B is too small and the

lowest low of the sign of strength rally
is also in the middle of the trading

range or is it earlier?

If so, it makes B even smaller.

All right, well, let's have a look.

And right away, you know, when I look at
this and I'm looking at the beginning

of the trading range, I'm looking for
the climactic action.

Where is it, guys?

I'm going to give you some candidates.

Candidate number three.

Candidate number two.

Candidate number one.

Which one is the selling climax in your
opinion?

all right okay

all

right so we have just one person

um who um is saying that number two is
the selling climax

um and i could kind of see the logic
behind that um

So let's go really quickly through that
logic. I think the logic here is that

number one is preliminary support and
then number two becomes selling climax.

So we can't really label it like this
just because the rally that we

have here is the rally of the change of
character.

You know, therefore, it suggests that
the selling climax was

earlier.

Okay, and then everyone else, and then
let's see what Dimitri is saying. Okay,

I'd say one, is the selling climax
because of the change of behavior? Yes,

we're talking about this.

Absolutely.

Okay, well, I would say that maybe.

Just maybe looking at the
characteristics of how the price acts,

climactic action not at 1, not at 2, and
not at 3, but at 0.

Look at how the price moves to the
downside.

There is some kind of hesitation here.
Why would there be hesitation on

increased volume signature?

So effort is increasing.

Demand is increasing, and that's what
stops the price from moving further

There is some buying that is happening
in this area.

And yet then, climactically, the price
goes down on a lot of volatility,

volume increase, momentum increase,
velocity increase,

and panic.

So then the prior attempt to stop could
be a preliminary support and this could

be a climactic action.

How would we check that?

A rally from the low of the selling
climax to the high of the automatic

should be the largest rally in the
downtrend that we have seen.

Is it? Yes.

And that acts as a change of character.

After that, we have a secondary test
that could come as a lower low and could

have the characteristics of diminishing
supply.

And phase C and phase B here, kind

of like, you know, you could probably
put it like this, phase C, and then

B is still going to be the largest among
the two.

And phase C has a spring and a test.

Phase D, last point of support, its own
trading range with local phase C.

And this becomes minus sign of strength.

And this becomes major sign of strength.

And probably that would be my labeling
here.

So sometimes it's easier to think
conceptually, right? So you kind of

see one event and then does that make
sense conceptually, you know, to put it

some kind of structure? Where is the
structure?

Okay, well, if this is a selling climax,
then I have to have a test.

Okay, could I have a test as a low, low?
Yes. Well, there was just a little bit

too much supply and demand was not that
present.

So the price just was, just still going
down but it did try to rally and then it

went down these are the swings if we
would look at them this is the

structure so

um could this be phase a yes is it down
sloping range yes

so could we have the sign of strength

commitment above the resistance, yes,
and then the backing up action, which

as the last point of support in the
larger trading range, to the support

acted as the resistance before. So a lot
of points kind of like come together.

So you have to play around with this a
little bit.

If you're labeling it horizontally,

I think then definitely this is a
selling climax, automatic reaction,

test, phase A. You can do anything here.

So then this is phase B, phase B. And
then this is the last attempt as phase C

to take it to the lows. But, you know,
there is not enough

supply and it becomes a high low.

So you could do that as well. And then
this would be a preliminary support.

Right, okay.

Is the lowest low of the sign of
strength rally?

Or is the lowest low of a sign of
strength rally here?

Okay, so again, it just depends on how
we actually view it.

Anything from the low to, let's say,
this level here could be considered a

sign of strength, and then up to here, a
major sign of strength.

All right, great.

Let's talk about trade desk. This is our
anatomy of the trade.

What do you guys think?

We are in this position.

I don't think that we failed out. We
were just staying in this position. The

idea was to look at the test.

So what are you guys seeing here? Give
me some answers.

Are we still keeping this position or
not? And while you're thinking about

let me kind of draw the analysis that we
had last week.

So we're kind of like in this huge, big
formation.

We had a favorable entry at the support.

We quickly, with the momentum, hit the
resistance.

Supply comes in, and what happens?

Keep it.

Change of character.

If it's a change of character, then...

We're probably staying here, right? So
kind of like in this range.

Retest of the prior resistance one way
back.

Halfway back, yes.

So somewhere here.

So let's kind of look at this in phases.

Would we say that the behavior in this
area right here in

this phase is bullish.

What do you guys think? Is the behavior
in this area that I highlighted in

yellow, is it bullish?

Yes, of course. Why are you thinking for
so long?

you see in front of you a rally that
came out of that area. It's an

accumulation, local accumulation.

So therefore, you don't even have to go
through the analysis. You already know

the result. You know, it's a bullish
behavior.

Okay, this rally, is this a bullish
behavior?

Yes, absolutely.

Bullish, bullish, bullish, yes.

Okay, then this emergence of the supply,
is this a bullish behavior or bearish

behavior?

And obviously we're looking at the
result, and the result is in the

the supply that's coming in.

So we probably would say that yes, there
is a bearish behavior

on this bar.

So now we have to test it.

And we would test, we would have a
conclusion, either bullish test or more

bearish looking test.

How is the test looking?

Bullish or bearish?

This whole test we are in right now.
Does it look bullish or bearish?

Yeah, it looks more bullish. Why? Well,
because it didn't really break the

support that acted before as the
resistance.

We are coming back into the high grounds
here, one half of this area right here.

We almost, you know...

covered the whole length of the daily
bar to the downside.

Somebody was saying that this daily bar
that was so aggressive to the downside

does not have the commitment below the
support,

which is a big deal.

So that it doesn't look like this. It
doesn't look like it goes through the

support and then just breaks it. It kind
of stops at this support cluster.

So that suggests to us that some demand
is behind that volume signature.

If the bar stops like this, like right
on the support.

So the test looks bullish.

So therefore, what would we be thinking
about our position?

Probably we still would be thinking
that.

It's still bullish for us and we still
have to see how this volatility will

resolve itself.

Volatility usually would demand the
resolution by the successful test

with the higher lows and diminishing
supply.

We already see that the supply is
diminished here on this bar, so that's a

really good sign, but we're still not
out of the woods.

We still have this bar as the bar, last
bar committing to the upside, so

this is the level where we could come
fail and start retesting 220.

we could stay in the trading range here
and we still don't

see a lot of signs of like fast
absorption here so that just suggests

you know if we're gonna have attempt to
go up maybe not a

really good chance for us to overcome it
although momentum here

is moving really fast

Let's just observe. Let's just kind of
like see what's gonna be the

continuation.

Oh, this is the incorrect volume
signature, yeah.

It's on my trade station.

It's set up in a different way. I
apologize, guys.

All right, so I think that majority of
you are saying that we're gonna keep it.

Is there anyone in our class that thinks
that maybe this is a

good place for us to get rid of this
position.

Let me see. Eric is saying, okay, we
didn't make a new high or test the prior

high, but no supply coming in. Look at
the prior analog. There was some

consolidation before a move up.

And by the prior analog, Eric, which one
are we looking at?

Which area?

Something like this?

Right, where we have this down move, a
lot of supply, then a move to the

and then this kind of like trading range
type of action, and then a move to the

upside, May or July.

Okay, May or July.

Okay.

Okay, yeah, I definitely could see this.
Yeah, so a move to the upside.

Yeah.

Well, let's just see. Let's see. I mean,
if that would be the analog, that would

be actually a very interesting thing to
observe.

And there is a long term support here.

So we could kind of like hit the support
again, be close to the support and then

start to take off. But what we can deny
in the way how this whole structure

looks is in this.

long -term secular trend.

We have a short -term oversold condition
out of which there is a lot of momentum

on a lot of buying, and then whatever
supply comes in, it has no capacity

to significantly take us below some
support levels.

So it still looks bullish and suggests
continuation after the absorption of the

supply that we have here.

Anybody is actually in this position?

I kind of decided that I'm not going to
be, just in case, because we're

discussing this talk.

Anyone in this position? No one? All
right.

Okay, well, I think this is a really
good pickup.

Okay, one person.

All right.

Well, good trade.

Good trade.

I wonder what the next group is gonna
decide, if somebody's gonna kind of

transition into the new cycle, into the
new semester.

This would be a really interesting stock
to follow. Maybe we'll just follow it

as anatomy of the trade fall semester,
and the new group would carry on the

trade. So we'll see, we'll see.

It's just interesting to still go and
analyze it uh you know and see

what is what's going to happen all right
so here is um here's a trade

that i wanted to show you guys and it
comes from ronnie and uh

ronnie thing just want to share a trait
that i was able um to put on do you do

what i've learned through your courses
um right so let me just kind of Okay,

I should have cleaned this up a little
bit. I apologize.

Okay, so long -term position.

I was thinking of closing due to the
huge short -term gains.

Was not, I'm sure.

Okay.

any input on the trade itself or things
I should have looked for the closest

future, okay, would it be a good, okay.

Well, first of all, I'll just quickly
look.

First short -term position taken here at
51 .4. Second short -term position

taken here at 46 .7.

Long -term position have taken in this
previous range.

So you have a sizable position

as you go in into this run and by the
way what is this stock what is the

i couldn't see it on the on the chart
can we share that

oh and ronnie is not here okay so

i'll have to ask ronnie but you know
would be good to know and then look at

where the price goes and so um ronnie is
closing it at one

100 % return and for the long term
position

in a good period of time and then for
the short term position literally in two

months.

I would say any time you make this type
of return, you take it.

Because it's acceleration that is not
sustainable.

And therefore, you're going to lose a
lot of the unrealized gains that you've

created.

So, first of all, fantastic trade in
terms of the entry points and in

terms of staying in the trend.

It's really, really hard to stay in the
trend like this where it goes into the

overbought condition so early.

And then...

another overbought condition, and
another overbought condition.

And it kind of stays ridiculously there
at that level and still accelerates up.

And that all happens behind a lot of
volume signature.

Let me show you what could have been and
what would never should be.

And I'm just a little bit...

emotional here because I'm going to show
you my mistake, my recent mistake.

This is probably is costing me, well, a
couple of trades are costing me like,

you know, the year more like an outlier
year. So

this was a recent favorite as a momentum
stock.

I'm sure that, you know, somebody might
have had even position here together

with me.

I was looking at kind of the same
structure as we have in, you know, trade

only on a smaller scale.

Got in into the position right here on
this reaction, all option leveraged.

And as the price goes up, I'm looking
at, you know, very

short term overbought conditions.

and it just shows me overbought
condition right here, and I'm getting it

around 45. So I'm making 50 % return in
a

month and a half, and I'm not staying
for the last climactic run right here.

look, even right now, it just shows a
lot of strength.

So that trade that Ronnie has conducted
could have been this type of trade.

It could have been so badly constructed
and conducted like I've done this one

right here without letting it go.

And something that, by the way, you guys
should be extremely interested in this

material.

Franz and I are regularly now working on
the videos, Anatomy of

the Trade, on the trades that we've
done.

And by the way, I want you to encourage,
and probably I'm going to make it as

one of the homework assignments in the
new semester.

You guys are off the hook. I'm going to
ask them to submit their trades for our

anatomy of the trade post -analysis.

So we'll see what kind of trades they're
going to send.

But it's just such a great process.

to go through the post analysis to look
at your trades and to analyze why did

you do what you did then i started
thinking why am i selling into this well

there is no volume signature of
climactic nature yes it

increased and it looked maybe on a chart
like

Like this, it looks a little bit
climactic, right? We're going into this

already have, you know, a sizable
profit.

What do you do?

Well, the rule should be scale out.

Take one third. It's almost like you've
taken maybe like that emotional edge of

being in the correct trade and just
timing your exit correctly, right?

So you want to...

it's already a profitable trade.

And even if you take one third off and
the other two thirds are gonna

fail on you, that one third is gonna
cover that loss of the remaining units

and still give you some small profit.

So that's what you're working with at
this point.

And of course, a more correct decision
was to scale out Take that,

again, kind of like an edge off, and
then continue with this trade.

Nothing threatening here. Supply comes
in, but doesn't produce that reaction.

I'm biting my nails after I close the
position.

Big jump here. I'm already sensing that
I'm too late.

It starts its climactic run, and it's
more identified by the volume signature

and the gap itself.

and I already seen that supply is coming
in. So if supply is coming in, we are

somewhat close, maybe another 10 bucks.

How would I trade this?

Maybe just the intraday is the
possibility here, but nothing really on

swing, unless it's very, very short term
swing, like two days or so.

But would I close here another,

Probably not. We're probably still
anticipating at least a push above 60.

Here is that push, and the volume is
even greater than yesterday.

The bar is larger, and it still closes
up, suggesting that that close

up, even on this climactic volume, and
this is how we would be interpreting the

daily. We obviously would want to go to
the intraday as well.

we would be thinking that there is a
little bit more left, a little bit more

push, maybe like to 70.

Why? Because of that close. Still a lot
of momentum.

So here I would go next day to the
intraday picture, and I would look into

runs into 70 and the failure around 70.

Okay, so the next day comes.

70 is hit.

And here just, you know, either you are
tightening your stop.

or again, plan intraday.

And somewhere here, you're probably
still around 70, you're gonna be exiting

out. So, such a

great selection, such a great timing,
and such an

undisciplined exit, and I'm sure that
you guys will be

watching the video and kind of like
agonizing with me over what could have

you know, a very, very like much trade
of the year here, just as a swing trade,

which brings me back to Ronnie.

So think about how hard it is to stay in
the run like this. It takes, you know,

not just courage, but this ability to
actually fit on the game.

And this is something, obviously, that
I'm still learning how to do. So a

really, really great trade overall,
great execution. I can't really add a

this. I think that the way how you're
scaling out at that bar is just

and fantastic because the next bar is a
change of character bar. The next bar, a

red bar, brings a lot of supply.

So just a fantastic trade.

Something that, you know...

I bow to. I bow to this trade.

It's like a perfect trade.

So, you know, we should definitely
acknowledge that.

Those trades do not come that often.

And unfortunately, in my arsenal, I
don't have a lot of those. I have some

this, but not a lot.

Well, thank you for sharing, Ronnie.

All right, bias game.

I must say.

And this is where, I don't know, there
were a lot of exciting points for me in

preparation for this class.

And this is probably was the biggest
because

except for one or two people in this
class,

we failed as a class to recognize the
bias.

Let's look at the social media first.

83 % said that this range is a
distribution.

So again, you know, this is an outlier.
And I was thinking, why? What

is wrong here?

Did we do something incorrectly?

Maybe, you know, it was too difficult.

because of where we stopped, right? So
where are we stopping? Well, we already

know that this was an accumulation. So
we stopped right here.

And actually, you know, members of my
content team, they were saying, well,

of, you know, a spot where you almost
intuitively think

that this is a distribution, just the
way how the structure looks.

And remember, guys, what I said to you
that I don't want to give you the chart

at this point.

If the chart is at this point, what are
we thinking, guys? What are you thinking

at this point?

The price was trying to move down, was
trying to commit to the downside, and

then quickly comes back into the trading
range and supply diminishes.

bullish or bearish at that yellow point?

Is that a clearer point than the one
that I gave you?

Than this one?

I think it would be, and that's why it's
not as challenging.

So therefore, the key here at this point
is to understand bias

from the data that comes.

So basically, by the time we get to this
point, we already should be bullish.

And this acts only as a confirmation to
us and we are actually loading up.

And we're not thinking that, you know,
about the analysis itself.

So I started thinking, okay, well, I'm
kind of still gonna go with that.

We're still gonna...

be in the middle of the range.

So in the range kind of turned out to be
in the middle here.

In the middle of the range, this is
where the buy is always gonna be.

And then from there, you have to think
what it's gonna be to the downside or to

the upside.

And then I thought, well, what is the
biggest problem here?

Let's just think about this.

kind of like the overall

feel that we have.

What are we failing at?

Are we failing at identification of the
bias itself?

Or are we failing at the identification
of the character?

And I want, I want, to you to

think about this as we go through
Dimitri's logic here. So I'm really

to Dimitri because he sent me an email
early on.

And sometimes, guys, when I see your
emails and I kind of, you know,

through the emails with some of you, I
have this, you know, like quick

correspondence where I might, you know,
push a couple of sentences towards your

way and just.

What I want to do with those quick
emails to you is I want you to keep

until this class about some other
concepts.

Think about what is the character here.

And one of my questions to Dmitry was,
look at this piece that I sent you. And

this was from his email. I just cropped
it out.

And I said, could you please analyze
this for me?

this downtrend it's clearly a downtrend
lower highs

lower lows so let's analyze it together
with mitri and let's

see where the logic brings us okay so
i'm really grateful to

dmitry that he was so open you know to
do this the buyer starts to the downside

Hold on a second.

We actually don't know.

I mean, like if we would be, if the
assignment to start here, we probably

know what the bias is at this point.

So the swing one, the orange one, is I
see an increase in volume and increase

the spread.

My bias is down. Now bias is down.

Next swing.

I see demand.

I came in creating a stop in action of
swing one.

Yes, we have a climactic bar here, and
then we have a change of character,

suggests what?

A trading range.

Our trading range develops like this.

It's an expanding triangle,

kind of like diagonal.

So all of our tests come on the support
level.

like this, and then that creates a
horizontal structure.

The price doesn't commit above the high
swing number one, although I

saw demand come in at the bottom of the
swing one to see, and I see no bullish

result, and my bias remains to the
downside.

Okay, well, demand definitely is here on
these two bars, on the three bars,

actually. one, two, and three. So
somebody's seeing the value here.

That's usually what you're gonna see at
the oversold condition.

What kind of rally we have, we can't
even overcome this bar.

So we still in the downside bias here.

On the last two bars, by the way, some
supply comes in.

which still tells you that we still have
some selling.

Scion, the swing goes down back to the
support area. The spread to the downside

is decreasing relative to swing number
one. There is less volume and less

velocity to the downside on swing number
three. My bias is not bullish yet, but

starting to take note that the downside
bias is losing validity.

That is not true.

Downside bias is not losing validity
yet. There is no failure

yet of the downside bias.

The observation is correct. The
deduction is wrong.

What is the observation?

That the spread on this reaction is
showing

deterioration of selling.

There is less selling.

We see that also in the volume
confirmation.

Supply goes down on the overall volume
diminished character.

What is the deduction here then?

Where this happens, this happens
contextually at the area of the support.

Off here on the diminished selling, we
would be expecting some kind of rally.

Rally does not negate a downside bias
that we are in.

We're going to say that the rally is
going to either confirm

bearish bias, and this would mean that
the rally would have bearish

characteristics, or that bias would
fail.

Downward bias would fail.

and therefore a rally would have bullish
characteristics.

Okay, let's see how we're judging the
next rally that is in blue.

Increased spread, correct, and velocity,
correct, to the upside on the overall

decreased volume signature, correct.

Ease of movement to the upside,
incorrect.

Why is this incorrect?

The ease of movement would not only show
a commitment, but also sustainability

of the move.

We don't have a sustainability of the
move. We have a temporary commitment and

then failure, so this acts more than
upthrust.

And not an ease of movement.

Higher high is created, bias is starting
to turn up to the upside.

Incorrect, because after the upthrust
action, we are coming back into the

So our commitment, what looked so
bullish, is just temporary and therefore

line still with the bearish bias.

It was not negated. It has not failed.

All right, let's go to the next one.

Swing number five.

Price spread and velocity increases
again back to the downside. Let me

just clean this up. We're looking at
this reaction right here.

Let's come back. Price spread and
velocity increases again back to the

Is this the correct statement or
incorrect statement, guys?

What do you think?

Is this a correct statement or
incorrect?

Is there an increase?

All right.

Uh -huh.

And Dmitry is asking exactly the
question, you know, that should be

Mitri is asking relative to what?
Relative to science swing?

And that's the key, right? So what are
you comparing this to?

If you're comparing this to science
swing, then definitely we have

increase in velocity,

spread is increasing, and so on and so
forth.

But what if you're comparing it to the
first leg, to the downside?

then when you look at this spread right
here and comparing it to this one, you

kind of see that it's not as large as
spread number one

right here.

So the largest spread is actually
diminished and also has a tail. So if

would take from open to the close, the
actual distance that was traveled from

one commitment to another,

you see

And it's very subtle.

And that's why, you know, we are in this
class and that's why I'm learning.

I'm learning as well, guys, you know,
how to see this, how to interpret this,

how to teach this.

But this is a slight nuance right here.

This spread is slightly diminishes.

And if it slightly diminishes, also
let's look at the progression.

I'm jumping a little bit ahead, but here
is our support cluster that was created

by one low and by another low. So the
next commitment comes, the

lowest close comes right here.

This is the low, this is the close.

This is as much as the price could have
committed on that.

with so much effort.

So what does it tell us then?

Why couldn't it commit more with so much
effort?

There was something in the way.

What was it? The opposing force.

Some demand came in at that point. So
now we're thinking, hmm, interesting

picture. We have some demand here.

That comes in, and then we have some
demand somewhere here that comes in on

two, three bars.

And it looks more like value buying.
Why? Because demand comes in, and then

price rallies, but there is no
continuation.

And we kind of see that again in this
picture with the demand.

Demand is not buying on the way up.

Demand only buying value.

And that suggests retesting again.

And when it retests again, demand comes
in again and produces now

slightly different picture.

If we're talking about analogs, then
which analog is the

best analog? Which analog is the most
bullish analog that we could see?

Effort, effort.

effort. Compare the effort that comes
in.

And compare the structural position of
the largest bar

to the downside, stopping bar,

and then reversal bar.

That's the structure.

Largest bar, stopping bar, reversal bar.

largest bar, stopping bar, and these two
are reversal bars.

This is the smallest effort

that is producing

the best result.

Why is this the best result? Well,
because the largest bar to the downside

the smallest among the three.

Stopping action is not that threatening.
And then more importantly, the demand

that comes in produces commitment to the
upside above the high

of the down bar, which never happened
before.

And the bullish bars are the best that
we're seeing.

So that's just on the demand side.

on the value demand. And value demand is
really hard to see because not in

a way that, you know, to identify it.
No, we could identify it really quickly,

but it's hard to see because it just
buys and goes away, buys and goes away,

buys and then it requires momentum
traders, institutional traders to come

to kind of like push above.

Otherwise, it's just going to kind of
grind up like this and then momentum

traders are going to start picking it up
well let's continue really quickly i'm

not going to continue here with mitri's
analysis admitri i think that you kind

of see already where i'm going with this
right so again um we're learning how to

make correct observations we're also
learning how to make correct

This is not the end of this analysis.

Obviously, let's see what happens next.

On the increased demand signature over
the previous period, we are seeing

maybe a slightly better rally, but also
the rally that fails.

So, and there are some suggestion that
there is, you know, maybe some selling

into those up bars.

Okay, well, what would this selling
produce?

Last reaction.

How much lower do we commit? This is
probably the lowest commitment that we

here with two progressive closes to the
downside.

But then again, when we look at the
extent of their aggressiveness on the

breakdowns, we don't see a lot of
aggression to the downside in the

And then we see more.

ability you know to travel on the
increased demand signature here so

also looking at the character was which
the price moves on the last swing to the

downside look at the spread it doesn't
move the same way it was the same

velocity it was the same momentum so
therefore selling is more muted

And it's just that the buying is not
that strong. It has to go to some value

point in order for the value buyers to
appear.

Okay, also another point that I want to
make.

How about this?

When we look at this chart and we look
at the trading

range and the support line,

And then we look at the volume signature
and we're thinking, okay, there is

really nothing that's going on here,
here, here, here, here, here, here,

until probably this point.

A very homogeneous volume signature, a
very homogeneous price signature in the

way of the texture. It looks the same.

It kind of produces the same type of the
reactions.

If there is volatility, it's short
-lived and the volume signature does not

increase.

What happens next that is so different?

So here we see volume increase and we
know that there is an effort to do what?

To push the price down.

Down below which level? Well,
definitely...

This acts as a change of character,
initial, so below this level.

Any other levels? Well, maybe this level
right here. So kind of like this

support cluster.

Do we have commitments to the downside?
First time, no commitment.

Second time, no commitment.

Third time.

Only one commitment suggesting some kind
of weakness.

Force time, depending on how we look.

Here are all of the relevant support
lines that we could possibly come up

Do we have a commitment below this line
right here? Yes, we have two progressive

closes below.

Below this low.

Yes, but it's very short -term lift and
the price recovers really quickly.

So we are seeing some limitation on the
result in

terms of where we are trying to commit.

And that's on the overall increase in
the effort.

So we should interpret this as increase
in effort with...

marginal capacity to commit to the
downside, but not producing really a big

action to the downside.

And obviously the trick was all in the
character.

So the character of how the price moves
is more important than the length of the

swing down, Mitri is asking.

Sometimes,

the bias is gonna be more evident from
the character than let's say the price

structure itself.

It's almost like you see how the selling
was so aggressive and then it just

becomes less and less and the buying
starts to produce much easier movement

the upside.

So you wanna catch that moment when
selling shows that

diminished strength characteristic.

And then demand is starting to show the
ease of movement.

And that moment is the moment of
synchronicity.

And that's when we want to come in into
the position.

Francis says, September, October could
fall as upthrust of the distribution.

Yeah, absolutely.

I mean, this looks like...

this upthrust of the upthrust type of
situations in phase C, and

you're thinking that we are in the
downtrend.

But also we have to consider that this
is a much larger structure.

We still kind of like not out of the
woods here, even though low, low, low

highs, but all of the supports were at
the point, even this one, it's still

in reference to this initial reaction.

So until we actually commit to the
downside, we can't really say that the

downtrend is confirmed.

And I know this is like a late
confirmation, but that's technically,

where it should be.

Okay, why isn't September

17th?

with distributional character into the
October 1st.

You could label it like this. Yeah, you
could say reaccumulation distribution

here, and then you kind of go into what?
Into another distribution type

of thing, like a TP formation maybe.

I'm looking at this reaction and this
reaction, and I'm seeing that they are

different in the character, not in the
magnitude,

because that still sustains the trend,
but in the character, the spread is

increasing.

And that's the only clue that we see,
because the volume signature is actually

okay. So that starts to define the
range, and then this we see more as an

upthrust then.

swing number seven okay and brown yes

so as i said mitri um just looking at
how the price moves

look at this movement and look at this
movement

much faster right each spread is much
more here

as well

So it takes even more days to produce
this type of move.

So there is less willingness to sell,
and that's why it kind of like goes

goes down, goes down. Or swing seven, so
this one right here.

There is still some supply here for
sure, and that's what kind of produces

reaction.

They bought in into this here.

Some momentum buyers probably thinking
that, yeah, this is a spring.

Reminds me a lot of what we just went
through in October, December of last

kind of like that type of structure.

Reaccumulation, change of character,
consolidation, and then the last

there is some supply that comes in here,
in this bar and then on this bar right

here.

So I think that some of them are looking
at the failure here, it's an up thrust,

they're shorting, and then again, as
they short, you want to see what kind of

result we're gonna have to the downside.

And character -wise, it's not really
there.

I think it was a difficult one.

And I think that this is a really good
wake -up call for us on the

part of the character that we need to be
very focused

on about how we see this character.

How does the price move?

It's not just the commitment to the
downside.

And if it's a commitment, then is it a
temporary commitment or not a temporary

commitment? There are quite a few ways.

Well, if I didn't confuse you enough,
here is the pop quiz.

On the top, we have the last bias game.

At the bottom, I'm giving you a new
structure.

I want you to think about this for maybe
like a minute or so.

Maybe two minutes. I want to give you a
little bit more time, to be fair.

And I want you to tell me, based on
everything that we've discussed

about chart number one on the top, what
kind

of bias would you give this chart?

All right, guys. Your minute or two
starts right now.

Think about what kind of bias the second
chart has.

All right, guys, where are you with this
second chart?

Let me know. I have... Okay,

hold on a second.

Okay, Larry, did you say down for this
chart? And Rick, did you say up?

I kind of missed those.

Were they the entries?

Okay, yeah, thank you for confirming
that.

All right.

Okay, so I'd say that we're probably,
you know, if you're still thinking, you

know, this is the time to submit your
answer.

So we are predominantly on the bullish
side.

And we have maybe a couple of answers on
the bearish side. Okay, great.

So the reason why I put this chart on is
I was just looking at

this chart and I was thinking, in a way,
the structure kind of looks the same,

right? So it kind of has this upward
momentum after a change of

character.

A change of character in the middle of
the range.

In this case, you know, you could argue
that this could be one as well.

But this one breaks the uptrend type of
upsloping structure.

So we have the last high at the same
point of time.

And then a trading range and then some
kind of shake lower

low and attempt to go up.

So structurally looks kind of the same,
wouldn't you say?

Very close.

What about volume?

Is it the same?

What about volume signature?

So is effort signature the same as on
chart number one?

Charting is saying no.

Okay, well, what's different about it?

I probably would be thinking there is
more volume here

at the beginning of

this.

trading range right so if we look into
let's say this area right here this is

the analog there is nothing going on
here but there is a lot tons of going on

here so what is going on here then why
why is volume

signature increases and then after that
we have breaks to the downside

Eric is saying that's selling.

Francis is saying COO is unloading.

Demand is getting stuff, trend trades.

Yeah, COO is selling.

Exactly. I mean, we're having a stop in
trading range.

Who is selling?

Value investor is selling at this point.

So in our view, this is a part of the
sale is selling into the strength.

We see how the price goes up, stops,
goes up, stops, goes up, stops, goes

up, stops again.

So all of this selling, selling,
selling, selling again.

Okay, so we have sold in this area.

Now what happens here with the CO?

CO becomes inactive.

If CO has sold the shares and CO is
interested in this position

anymore,

then the volume signature is going to
fall down like this, right? So, boom.

We see that. Not only that, the result
of that, just because

demand has fallen down, is going to be
the rallies of what kind of character?

The ones that are going to be not that
great.

the ones that are going to come into the
area of the previous selling and

they're going to be sold into like here,
like here again, especially on some

kind of upthrust action.

And then after that, when there is an
inability to go up, then they're going

start capitulating in a big way.

Institutions will start to recognize
that.

Well, there is no absolute or relative
return, so we got to get rid of this

before it just jumps down on us and we
can't even get out of this position.

So they start early capitulation and
then we could see this in the volume

signature.

Let me ask you this question again.

Look at the price structure.

Doesn't it look the same?

So what's different?

Different context behind the volume
signature.

We could go a little bit into the
details here as well. I would argue that

this move and this move are different in
character.

Look at how the volume is expanding.
It's expanding here too, but relative to

the previous volume expansions, it's
different.

And also the way how it moves.

It has some kind of much easier movement
to the downside. There is a little bit

more kind of like aggression on the
first two legs to the downside. We don't

that in the upper chart.

The last reaction is very subdued, very
kind of like laborious to the downside.

So a slight change in the character as
well.

All right.

I thought that would be a really good
exercise because the structure looked

same.

So, and yeah, the second chart is a
distribution, by the way, if you're

thinking, you know, what this is, what
the bias is. So yeah, distribution.

And here it is. What happens next?

We are here.

So we sold.

They sold so much here, and then they
went away, and then every time it goes

into the strength, they're selling,
they're selling, they're selling, and

they're capitulating finally, and they
are out of the position.

There is no COO anymore in this stock.
It's almost like that heartbeat

medical tool that they use, and you see
the heartbeat like this.

It kind of like...

You know, there is nothing there.

And what happens after that?

The price just slides down.

Nobody's buying, so it slides down. And
then when it slides down a lot, it

becomes oversold.

And then more of a technical rally
happens.

And then after that, again, there is
really... no strength so there is even

selling into into the rally okay um

other examples of the accumulation
distribution like structure that would

volume at the beginning where we
identify sales selling that would

up being a reaccumulation yes and that's
why you have to kind of like start with

the story i thought that you know this
area right here was significant in the

way that it told us that the trading
range is coming up.

And then the volume signature said it's
reaccumulation.

And then everything unfolded in kind of
like under this scenario.

It was a trading range and it became an
accumulation.

But it had an area where it became
volatile and had to absorb the supply.

In the second scenario, right away we're
seeing

It's a trading range and it's probably a
distributional trading range. It could

be. We need to confirm this.

And then it's being confirmed in this
area right here.

Different assumptions at the beginning
and different outcomes.

And yes, it could be this.

And then as this develops, imagine

Something else is going on and then
let's say some news come and then

institution starts to buy and it starts
producing this type of structure.

So you could have areas where you could
have a reaccumulation,

distribution, and then reaccumulation.
Those are complex structures.

I've mentioned this actually multiple
times and I'm going to give you really

quickly a couple of examples.

By the way, Tesla, still bullish.

There's nothing that's going on there.

So here is a

trading

range in Tesla that had

reaccumulation texture.

distributional texture, and then
reaccumulation of texture in the same

range.

So your Wyckoff story would be
developing throughout different

here. You would be, your calls are gonna
be, and the bias is gonna be

bullish throughout this whole activity.

And then you're gonna say, There is a
change of character and there is a

distributional bias.

And then after this rally, you're going
to say there is a reaccumulation of

bias. And after this area right here,
reaccumulation of bias will be

And then with this rally, it will be
confirmed completely.

So and it's just a complex trading
range. Why does this happen? Like why is

complexity?

A lot of... promises that are still

in the perception of people are
sustainable but then

more reality kicks in and they cannot
provide the orders

that people want for buying this car.

And that produces this distributional
wave down.

And then situation is under control.

so institutions are starting to buy in
but it wasn't resolved completely so

we're going into the trading range and
then we're going to see the advancement

another example of this

is

this range

We have a reaccumulation type of bullish
environment just after the shakeout.

And then we have distributional pattern.

Then we have the rally that is bullish
and the backing up action that is

too.

By the way, I still don't understand why
is there so much

bearish sentiment? And this is the
discussion for tomorrow for WMD.

Why is there so much bearish sentiment
when we just came out of the Apex

formation and we cleared it? And look at
how many closes above the resistance we

have. The price is not going down. I
mean, yes, we're in the short -term

reaction here, but who cares about that?
We're always going to have some kind of

reaction, some kind of reactions as we
go up, even in the most bullish markets.

but we did commit above.

So at least temporarily, at least for
the time being, I think that people

should kind of look at this and just
say, yes, I see it's an uptrend.

All right.

Well, Mitri, here it is. A couple of
examples of that type of complexity

we could...

go from one environment into another.

And usually those are going to be multi
-year structures.

Sometimes you might see this pattern in
shorter formations, but usually this

type of structure presents itself when
there is a shift in sentiment from one

site to another, and that happens within
the formation itself.

All right, let's go to the next segment.

All right, so homework, yeah, do we want
to do this? So I wanted to finish today

probably slightly earlier, maybe like at
5 .10, 5 .15, have some

appointments to keep in the evening.

Yeah, let's go through this. We have
about maybe 30 minutes for sure, so

do this.

So what I would like you guys to do, and
this is something that we wanted to

establish, you know, even at the
beginning of the semester.

didn't.

But I want to give you this little bit
of the material from one of the specials

that I've conducted back in June, and
that's the trust process special.

I'm working together with one of our
content team providers, and we're

on the trust process part number two.

There are some improvements that we're
going to bring. That's number one.

Secondly, we are going to create a
group,

which we're going to call trading
process group.

And this group is going to be.

meeting just once a month.

And on a weekly basis, the members of
this group will provide their

feedback on the process that they've
done this week. In other words, the

is going to be an accountability tool
for us to keep up with the process.

And obviously, each week, we will send
you some kind of email material, maybe

like a short video.

you know a short article something to
think about something to read and then

will share as a group one file in the
dropbox where we could see how

doing so um something very exciting you
know to look forward to so with that i

thought that i want to revisit some of
the things um that we need to do in

preparation for those classes. And
specifically, I want you to start

this because a lot of you are going to
end up in that group. It's going to be a

very unique experience that we're going
to create.

So I want you to work on this.

I want you to, if you don't have it yet,
if you don't have the way of how you

analyze your positions or look at the
watch list, I'd say this, okay, well,

forget about the watch list. Just at
least concentrate on your position. So

let's say that you have three positions
like I have here, actually two

positions.

We have two positions here.

They were opened as bullish, okay, short
position, short position, okay.

If you're a swing trader, and you're a
short -term swing trader then i would

want you to analyze those positions each
day how do we analyze well we would

make our observations and we would make
our deductions and the main question

that we would answer is are there any
actions for us to take on that

day with this particular position should
we add to the position should we get

out of the position should we scale out
of this position uh these are the most

common questions. Should we move to stop
loss?

So here I'm saying small spread with
supply tail on increased volume,

of supply into the weekend strength.

No action is required.

Stop loss stays at 21 .50. And then I
progress from one day to another and you

kind of could see how the stop loss
stays at the same place and you go

the logic every day.

Okay, so huge spread down on increased
volume, bearish action, move to stop

loss. So we are moving the stop loss,
and we are showing that on this day

is some kind of action. It becomes, you
know, kind of like this yellowish color.

And then the second position, going
through the analysis, we are actually

stopped out, I think.

No, we'll most likely be stopped out.

Yeah, and this position has been stopped
out on the next day.

we would have an entry here that this
position has been stopped out and that's

it this position has been closed and
this position will go into the post

analysis this position will still stay
on and we still would

want to continue our discussion our
analysis every day uh that would give us

that you know habituation um of being in
the process of making

the analysis each day, looking at our
positions each day, thinking about them

each day, making actions appropriate to
the plan each day. If there is nothing

to do, then the stop loss stays at the
same time and that's at the same place

and that's it. That's all we do.

And then obviously you want to analyze
market every day as well.

And this could be just very...
Simplistic observations on the volume

analysis, on the swing analysis, maybe
on some strength analysis, you know,

stuff like that.

So I would like you as the homework to
show me this process with the

current positions that you have. If you
don't have the positions currently, I

still want you to maybe like create some
positions and follow them.

At least do this for the trade desk that
we are going through.

Establish this routine where each day
you look at the market, you analyze the

market, and you analyze the trading desk
stock.

Actually, we should have established
this right away. This probably would be

best.

All right, well, something for the next
semester, guys.

Go through the position, and let's say
your position is closed. So now we want

to do our post -analysis.

That's the second step.

And here I want you to identify, you
know, what was the original

analysis for that position to even think
that, you know, you're going to go in

into this position?

What were some of the tactical
decisions, you know, as to where do you

stop loss?

your target risk size, if that's
appropriate.

And then what was the actual action?

So in this instance, this was an actual
trade, by the way.

Something that I need to discuss was
France.

Point of entry, thinking here that we're
going to go down and obviously

completely wrong on the bias.

So please don't think that I'm always
right.

And I'm trying to show you guys as many
trades that fail as possible.

So we are going through my failed trades
as well.

And I think that the key misjudgment
here was in this reaction.

Increased effort after the failure to
commit on

such an aggression.

And that should have stopped me from
thinking that there's going to be a

continuation to the downside.

There is no supply coming in right here.
So obviously just an analytical failure

to see the correct bias.

How do we deal with the post analysis?

So our, in this case, weekly analysis,
and you can do weekly analysis instead

the daily as well, you see the
progression of how position

is coming to an end.

Bullish reversal.

on ease of movement, right here. No
supply present on horizontal reaction.

Bullish.

Expect, I think. Expect the price to
continue up. Stop loss moved to 32.

So at least stop loss was moved from
here,

I believe, or here to 32. So it wasn't a
significant loss. It was just a partial

loss. And then...

In the post -analysis, we want to go
through our

visual recognition skills, trade
execution skills, and create some kind

of variance for this trade.

So I'm saying that bias was defined
incorrectly.

December reaction, which is this one,
has not committed down. Next rally

over 80%. Bullish.

Could have added this, bullish, bullish.

So definitely just a misstep.

Timing.

I still would say that the timing was
correct.

Character, I'm saying not applicable,
but probably I should say no here.

So by the timing, I mean that the
reversal.

happened you know your entry and after
the rally so that was yes this was no no

point of entry yes stop loss yes add
-ons not applicable because the position

did not develop so we would take this
out and then exit yes why yes well

i'm exiting correctly out of the
position that is incorrect so that's the

execution right here so overall

I'm still getting the variance that is
more positive than negative, right? So

biggest thing here is more analytical.

Two of them out of, let's say, one, two,
three, four, five, let's say six.

So that is about 66%,

not 80. So 66 % about.

Is it a good trade?

I would say it's a good trade.

That is a losing good trade.

Why? Well, because even though we were

wrong on the bias itself, so analysis
has failed, but everything else was

executed correctly.

You still had to identify correctly a
point of entry.

You still had to identify correctly
where to put the stop loss and how to

it in the case of failure as well.

So your execution of the...

that failed on the basis of your
analysis still was executed

partially correctly.

And that's what we're trying to do here.

So I want you to create these two
spreadsheets for yourself

as a homework.

And show me examples of those for the
next class.

Take trading desk.

as one of the positions or trade any of
the positions that you're in right now

and start analyzing them on the daily or
weekly basis like this

okay um that's another trade right so
this is illusion

trade this is the winning trade um and
again here in the winning trade you

in the post analysis um you want to
identify what doesn't work

And then in the trust the process part
number two, we'll talk about the process

of how do we deal with this mistake?

Because usually the mistakes are going
to be common.

And, you know, as you watch Anatomy of
the Trade with Franz and myself, you

know, you probably will hear a lot that
there is a commonality of mistakes that

we make. Our task is to define them.

And the process will, and specifically
post -analysis, will help you to define

those mistakes.

And then say, okay, if add -ons are
important,

then we need to feedback loop that back
to where we actually

should be adding to the position. So,
for instance, on one of the days, like

each of the day, we maybe could have
some kind of column here, add -on.

Add on.

Add on.

And then let's say each day or each week
we would be answering this question.

Yes or no?

No. Why?

And you can list some of the reasons
why.

No.

Yes.

And because we were forced to answer
this question

at the time that we are doing our
analysis it brings us to the lifetime

decision to actually add to the position
or whatever that

trading decision is in your case so this
is something that you know we are kind

of like developing and uh this is going
to be a life uh you know life process

something that is going to be you know
changeable It's not going to be

necessarily static.

Okay, great. So here is your homework.

Another question.

And three charts are falling.

You know, there's questions, and I think
after this we're going to stop. So from

Anindya, question number one, please
comment on my anticipated price movement

based on horizontal volume.

Okay, here we are.

hub spot, also a very interesting stock,
definitely in

that area that is really, really hot.

So we're seeing a decline.

Again, look at the character of the
decline, how it happens.

What can you say about the character of
that decline?

Any thoughts on that, guys?

I'm looking at the initial momentum to
the downside and then what happens

afterward.

Kind of like selling that is not really
impressive, but it does go

below the support.

Commits there.

Another attempt to commit on increased
volatility fails.

Price comes back.

So we're seeing some kind of resistance
to go down.

I'm assuming that our bias here is to
the upside.

Long -term RSI is above, so that's
great. We don't have the relative

so this would be a structural trade for
us.

It's very crucial to understand how the
price would move to the upside, or

something that we've discussed in the...

Last classes, you know, we were talking
about the supply and demand horizontal

volume signature. It's on the left.

So let's kind of look what we could see
here. If the price does not fall back

like this, and our assumption is that
we're going to go up, then

the probable path with which the price
is going to, you know, travel up is

to be what?

So let's say that we are here somewhere.

Supply is increasing.

So we're probably going to have a
reaction right away.

Something where supply comes in and
shows itself.

Demand is not very good here. So we
probably just will be thinking about

about this area right here.

So something like this. Again, if price
continues to the upside.

then the next attempt to go up should
into this increase of the supply.

And then we would retreat back probably
to this

demand again. So it could go again to
the downside. And that just kind of

you. that there is so much supply in
this area right here this is going to be

crucial to see if the stock could
overcome this price this

level here specifically and this is
where that you know huge supply is

and not just on one bar but on this one
as well actually on that upper bar even

more so So supply is going to be
extremely strong in this area. I would

I would want to see how the price
overcomes that supply first before I

the position.

So let's just assume that maybe there is
some kind of absorption that could

happen. But again, we're seeing that
there is definitely a grinding up

type of action that we might expect if
the price does not fall down right away.

And then after that, this increase of
the supply is going to be

noticeable for us, and then overcome,
and then

here we're going to lose that
resistance.

So acceleration should happen in this
area where there is supply

in the absorbed manner. And then think
already.

what has happened with this type of
move.

We're probably thinking here a sign of
strength in the backing up action.

So a period of absorption should happen
just because supply is so strong.

So that probably would be, if bullish
scenario is to materialize, I would

be thinking about kind of like this
grinding up type of action.

Okay, second question. This is a long
-term chart. Is my analysis correct that

the accumulation complete ready to move
up?

Okay, so the same stock and we're
looking into the first area right here

produces that change of character. A lot
of strength possibly going into phase

B. I would be thinking that this is
phase C.

I like how the PMO, you know, this is, A
momentum

indicator is showing some divergence.

So that shows some promise. I like how
the volume signature is increasing here

and the price does not go lower.

And I like that the long -term momentum
is staying up.

Some things still need to happen here,
right? So we still need for the

confirmation to have some kind of
overcoming.

of the supply in this area right here at
160, and then I would be more inclined

to commit to a more bullish view, but
definitely there is a change in

Okay, and something really cool that I
need to send, do you use horizontal

volume in the PNF chart?

So I definitely have seen it, but I use
more of the vertical volume signature

in the PNF. And I thought that was so
cool. And then I put two charts together

so that we would guys see how the
vertical and PNF are

slightly different for the horizontal
volume.

Why is it different? Well, because the
columns are going to have their box size

of five.

That's going to condense a lot of the
price action, and therefore your volume

going to be different. Even the vertical
volume is somewhat different when we

look at all of those volume spikes and
the moves.

So I would probably be thinking of maybe
analyzing it.

differently.

But still, here is that supply level
that we need to overcome.

And until it's overcome, we would be
thinking that this is a quite

move to the downside.

It actually looks above this area right
here as a sign of weakness.

So we need to resolve to the upside with
the absorption of the supply above 160.

Until then...

I would be still looking for the
confirmations of this pattern.

If it's gonna fall from here, where
would it fall to?

Well, here is our increase of the
demand.

So these would act as our targets.

Target number one, target number two,
target number three.

Kind of quickly, without even
calculating anything, you could think

the price would move, especially to the
downside, because the history to the

downside is already written in the
horizontal volume signature, whereas the

movement to the upside above the price
would not have any history of supply

-demand being there.

All right.

Okay. So I think that's it for today,
guys.

Quite a lot of topics that we've covered
today.

And I thought that just a collection of
all of them, especially the bias game,

it was a really difficult bias game.
Majority of you have failed.

Social media have failed. I probably
would have failed as well if it would be

presented to me like this.

So I was thinking a lot about that and
how to actually differentiate some of

nuances right there. And hopefully, we
kind of got to that point where we saw,

clear distinctions in the context of the
volume signature, where it occurs,

where that saline occurs, how textures
change,

and just all of that should help you out

just to think about those concepts from
different

perspectives. So hopefully that was...

helpful. All right, guys, I will see you
tomorrow in WMD. I will see you for

those of you who signed up for the long
-term campaign on Thursday.

I will see you for the last class in the
practicum next Tuesday.

Let's do the homework. I'm really
curious to see how you guys are going to

this. And I'm looking forward to 2020
because as you could see, everything is

kind of like a whirlwind and becoming,
you know,

more in -depth, more complex, and yet at
the same time, hopefully much simpler

for the understanding.

All right, guys, with that, happy
trading, and I'll see you next week. Bye