Original subtitles

Hello everyone, today is December 10th, and this is session number 14, so we

have only two sessions left, today and next week of the Wyckoff Trigion

Practicum course.

These are the last two sessions of the Wyckoff Trigion Practicum course as we

know it.

We're going to convert this into Wyckoff Trigion course part two, which we still

will call Between Us.

the practicum because this is where we practice. We develop the skill. Last

session, December 17th, December special. We're going to start on

excited about that too because there's going to be some new ideas, some new

material that I'm going to give you, something that I'm currently thinking

about.

testing so you kind of will see this on the top of that we'll talk about a long

-term system you know how do you recognize the stability of the uptrend

do you actually trade it uh long term and then trade around it so um it's

to be both new information kind of like new ways of how we could look at things

and then also um you know new uh kind of like a repeated

tactical trading decision making.

Something that we've studied, but maybe we haven't studied to that depth.

So we're just developing the depth of that material.

Only two sessions, this Thursday and then the Thursday after that, and then

we're going on the break.

Wyckoff Trading Course, the practicum, now Wyckoff Trading Course Part 2, the

practicum, registration is open for the spring semester of 2020.

We're going to start on January 7th.

I have quite a few alumni in this class from the previous cycle.

Some of you guys even came from the cycle before.

And I think that...

we kind of probably are finding a very compelling way of

covering the markets and at the same time covering the depths of the

and at the same time practicing and practicing and practicing.

I think the bias exercise has become kind of like a thing, almost like an

obsession in the last two cycles.

If you're really, really into the bias exercise, and this is what I'm hearing

from you guys. I'm just going to put a little bit of the side note here.

I'm hearing a lot of honest responses in your emails that goes like this.

The bias game shows me where I am, and I see that clearly now.

So that tells me a lot of things.

Not only about, you know, the person that you are, you know, in terms of,

you know, looking at yourself realistically and just saying like,

this is where I am.

And I am acknowledging this. And then what's next for me? It's kind of

liberating to say that I don't know something.

I'm not as good at something.

This exercise shows that.

So I need to work more on that. How do I do this? Okay, well, I'm already in the

class.

So use this opportunity to extract as much value with this new

awareness that this exercise brings. So kind of like on a very fundamental

level, that's how I see it. That's how I view it. So thank you for those honest

emails. I really appreciate this. As you know, I am trying to be as transparent

with you guys as...

As I can with all of my trades, actually, the company is going to

huge, huge policy in 2020 where we're going to be extremely transparent

with everything that we do, everything that we call, everything that we call in

the markets and so on and so forth.

And that's just going to kind of like elevate the overall quality of the

offerings that we have.

For those of you who are interested in repeating the course, and obviously

bias game never repeats itself. It's something different. And as you know,

are so many questions that we address, so many exercises that we go through.

I always present, you know, kind of like new ideas in this setting because this

is kind of like our R &D. And I like to play around in this class.

So, early bird is still on until the first week

of January.

Only $600 for 15 sessions as an alumni for early bird.

So, take advantage of that if you plan on continuing with the practicum.

I think it's a very convenient forum for those of you who have nine to five

jobs.

If you can come home, especially if you're on the East Coast or

if you can come home and just once a week even devote two, two and a half

just to this material and just to think once a week.

intensively about this material but do this consistently week after week after

week and then follow the market and apply those concepts in the market as

as you kind of like we're going through the market and i'm showing you the

thinking about how the market the structure develops you are acquiring the

mentality as well as we go through those exercises whether this is just an

exercise the buyers game or we are looking at the market or anatomy of the

it's the logic it's the how we think you know about those things that needs to

be installed so repeating the course is obviously a valuable thing to do

today as usual market update anatomy of the trade buyers game q and a's

on the trade analysis we're gonna touch upon this. I'm going

to see if we have even time for this.

But I want to start on this, and there is some exciting news about this.

And then on the exercise, we're either going to do tape reading or a bias game,

so we'll see what we're going to do.

Rick is saying, we hear your heart, and we now join with you with our whole

heart as well. Well, thank you. Yeah, heartfelt.

Thank you.

As usual, Everything is for educational purposes only. Stop the recording and

read the whole disclaimer.

First question is from Anindo.

I'm sending you a chart of Roku with three analog bars circled. So they are

circled here, here, and then here.

After the first circled area one, Roku made a bear flag.

and headed down. After the second gap down bar, circled area two, Oroku

and went up.

On Monday, Oroku gapped down and then rallied, still in today at the

My question is, can we tell based on analogs and Wyckoff analysis whether

goes down into a potential phase C test of the low? So does it rally to the top

of the range?

and eventually breaks out well what a question

what a question

well my first reaction when i read this

question maybe like five days ago or so was that um

they're actually not all analogs i think this bar in the middle

let me just take another color

I think this bar in the middle right here, this is more an analog of the stop

action where we actually stop in. So I would probably have them like this.

Yeah, so second is probably a little bit questionable here.

But the first one and the third one, those look like analogs. Why?

Well, because we have a movement to the upside in both cases.

And then there is supply that's coming in, and that produces a synchronicity

with the result. The price does move freely to the downside, and we have this

the same here.

So supply increases, and we see the gap and then continuation.

So in a way, that's probably just the beginning of the move.

The question is, how would we know? Would we know from here that we're going

have some kind of...

phase C?

Well, that's something that's still yet to be fully

developed as a knowledge.

I could give you some of the things that I'm thinking about and that

I kind of use in

my analysis, and that is that phase C could you know take different

shapes and forms and uh you know the precursor of the move into phase c

is always going to be what happens in phase b so therefore

uh it becomes a question of how do you identify phase b in the correct way

and then judging what kind of structure phase b has then that would mean

that certain development into phase C is possible.

This is the material that is coming up, and again, practicum is gonna be

probably one of the first places where it will be.

Here, I would probably just not even think about the structure, I would be

thinking about

Volume and price effort and the result and kind of would try to build maybe

an understanding What is going on here?

So let's just kind of walk through this a little bit and let me just see

A little bit updated information.

Okay, so nothing happened really in the last Four

days

The volume came down, and yeah, all right.

Okay, so the way how I would view this is that we went really fast to the

upside. There was an overbought condition here on a much larger channel,

that produced some selling, also some selling into the news that Disney was

coming up with its own streaming services. Apple was coming out with its

streaming services and that put the pressure on Roku and Roku

sold out really quickly.

In my opinion, we've just experienced a major sign of strength in

Roku since the bottom end that we had here in phase C. Please note that

this price here was from $20, and this price here was 170, so

plus 150 points on a sign of strength.

What does it mean?

I mean, let's calculate in the percentage from, let's say, what is it,

28, I'm sorry, from 28.

Could somebody really quickly calculate what's the percent on that?

So imagine having such a huge, massive

major sign of strength.

You are gonna have a lot of volatility in the stock and if it comes down to

100,

then you probably have some kind of extremely oversold condition.

So this was a very interesting place to actually initiate a long -term campaign.

And then within different reactions and different

effort to push the price down,

an effort

slightly diminishes.

And the result is still higher lows.

So at this point, we would be thinking that there's going to be a continuation.

Now, ironically, we're coming to the answer of the question

that we've seen here.

You know, how could we define phase C? Well, if we're going to fail here, like

one of the scenarios that Aninda is catching here.

If we're going to fail here, most likely we're going to try to retest 100, which

will give us another interesting opportunity maybe to add to a long -term

campaign. And maybe this materializes into phase C.

And I'm thinking, well, could we potentially kind of see if

what's possible?

Well, I'm seeing that there is a lot of buying on this way up.

It was such a consistent way up. I remember just looking at it on the daily

basis. And I started day trading this rally.

And I started day trading this rally into Friday.

And what was crazy about this, I'm trading this rally on the intraday basis

Friday with weekly options that are expiring literally in five hours.

and I'm making profits, and my position actually doubled, more than doubled.

That's how this movement was. There was so much buying, it was like a pure

effort comes into the market and just pushes us up.

So I'm not sure if with this type of buying, we would

have the retest of 100.

100 seems like such a value proposition right now that somebody would be

probably taking the price, you know, the stock at, you know, 120.

In this case, they're taking the stock at around 130 already.

So I'm thinking that it might actually stay, but I would rather trade it than

guess, you know, what's going to happen. So I like the scenario here that Ninder

is, you know, picturing.

If we are breaking this trend line that we are on right now, well, most likely

then I'm not just doing anything and I'm just trying to see what's going to

happen around $100, so maybe $120.

What kind of reaction we're going to have here? If reaction is positive,

it be another opportunity to come in and add to the long -term position or maybe

initiate it?

And if it rebounds, like this is this a true phase c so that's how i probably

would be thinking about this but there is a lot of knowledge behind this

question that still is coming up you know we're going to go into definitions

different phases different variations and so on so forth and that material is

still ahead 540 540

Wow, that's a massive sign of strength.

So think about if this major sign of strength is 540,

then what would be the return on the actual

trend? So granted, it still has to materialize. It still has to even

finish the backing up action.

And you can think of this not necessarily of the backing up action.

reason why I'm thinking that this is a backing up action is because the texture

of this run is kind of like fluid. There is no changes of

character in the way how the price went up. So it looks like once went up, and

that's the way where they were getting into the position.

And now they're still getting into the position. Look at the volume signature.

Quite significant.

And this kind of like consistency and persistency with which institutions are

getting into this position, they don't care about price change from 120 to

160.

That's kind of insane, right?

What does it tell us? They're probably thinking that it's going to go much

higher.

All right. But I think that with Roku, it's all about timing.

especially you know with the momentum stock like this you have to time it

correctly um or you have to come in with the size that does not bother you even

if the stock is not going in your direction for some time and that's kind

like the strategy that i have with this stock all right let's look at the

markets really quick again

Whenever supply comes, it gets absorbed.

Whenever supply increases, it gets absorbed. Whenever supply

comes again, it has no capacity to

consistently push the prices down.

some demand comes in. And even if supply is going to overwhelm demand at this

point, and we're going to have maybe like another low here, maybe like

higher low, that only would point out, we might have

some kind of consolidation. We might go into like, you know, some kind of

prolonged trading range into the end of the year, maybe into like, you know, the

first week of January.

I would say that probably all of this, Santa Claus rallies, looking at how

consumers behave and how liquidity is available,

looking at the news cycle.

It seems that it's possible that we could have strength into the close of

year and we could have strength into the beginning of the year. And that's

actually kind of like how it feels.

So, again.

Every time supply comes in, it has some kind of

inability to push the price down for a significant period of time just because

somebody comes in and buys and that sustains the rally.

So this is where we are.

What is leading?

Russell 2000.

This is where we would like to be. Small caps, mid caps, a lot of health stocks,

a lot of bank stocks.

And, you know, they are showing especially health stocks.

Obviously, you know, had some reaction, but still the runs that they had,

they're showing some strength.

What else could we say here on oil?

I think the critical levels here is just to hold between 58 and 60.

And actually, it is more critical even just to kind of get away from here.

Because the more we stay here, the more there is a possibility that we might

kind of like slip down again.

And we don't have a lot of room for error in this case because the support

consistently goes up.

And then at some point, this type of support could fail.

And this is actually coming back to Aninda's question about potential phase

How could we know in phase B? Well, this kind of looks like it, where we are

from the oversold condition, go quickly up, and then we consolidate in phase B.

And that would suggest that...

institutions got in into this position getting into this position not willing

give up and when you know the ones that actually got into the position maybe

they were you know early adapters when they see price deterioration

as other institutions are not getting in that's where they're gonna give up

their positions and they're gonna capitulate and that will produce a move

downside into potential phase C.

We don't know whether this is going to be a high -low or low -low.

We would judge that as the price goes down by the character with which the

moves down.

But here is that scenario.

So in a way, when we think about tactics here, We basically don't want the price

to go through this level or come in down around this level.

One half of the big spread of this bar below of the

loss commitment to the upside, those are very important levels. So maybe a stop

loss somewhere, you know, if we want to be extremely conservative, somewhere

slightly below this level.

But then if we're...

If we want still to see with which way there is a possible downfall here, then

probably this is the more catastrophic level. This is where I would be keeping

my stop loss if I'm still thinking long -term campaign.

So oil is in a very interesting spot.

Gold, I couldn't find an edge for quite some time.

I think...

that we're still not fully there.

All of the attempts to go up do not have a lot of demand signature behind it.

So I think that if we are going to have a rally, that rally is going to be more

a technical rally on the supply exhaustion rather than

on the presence of the demand.

Obviously, when we start...

we break to the upside, we might attract some speculative demand

that could come. And I think that maybe there might be some selling into it.

But the rally is possible. I see that the rally could happen to these levels

right here. This looks like a good trend line.

A break here would probably signify quite a lot because

This would be a deviation from the trend that we're in.

And imagine if

we are breaking this trend right here.

So this would mean that we could actually come back even to these levels.

which I doubt that it will happen. I think that once the price goes and

an oversold condition right here, I think the institution still would see

as a very, very attractive value, and some of them will jump on the board.

But until we see more bullish action that

actually has some demand signature behind it, I think I would stay away.

And I thought that this was actually a really good decision to stay away for

like a month from gold and not trade there. So I'm really happy with that.

All right.

That's it for the markets.

Let's go to the next question. This comes from Simon.

Have I labeled the WICA phases and events correctly as a horizontal

is it?

end up sloping structure.

I second guess the horizontal structure since phase B is too small and the

lowest low of the sign of strength rally is also in the middle of the trading

range or is it earlier?

If so, it makes B even smaller.

All right, well, let's have a look.

And right away, you know, when I look at this and I'm looking at the beginning

of the trading range, I'm looking for the climactic action.

Where is it, guys?

I'm going to give you some candidates.

Candidate number three.

Candidate number two.

Candidate number one.

Which one is the selling climax in your opinion?

all right okay

all

right so we have just one person

um who um is saying that number two is the selling climax

um and i could kind of see the logic behind that um

So let's go really quickly through that logic. I think the logic here is that

number one is preliminary support and then number two becomes selling climax.

So we can't really label it like this just because the rally that we

have here is the rally of the change of character.

You know, therefore, it suggests that the selling climax was

earlier.

Okay, and then everyone else, and then let's see what Dimitri is saying. Okay,

I'd say one, is the selling climax because of the change of behavior? Yes,

we're talking about this.

Absolutely.

Okay, well, I would say that maybe.

Just maybe looking at the characteristics of how the price acts,

climactic action not at 1, not at 2, and not at 3, but at 0.

Look at how the price moves to the downside.

There is some kind of hesitation here. Why would there be hesitation on

increased volume signature?

So effort is increasing.

Demand is increasing, and that's what stops the price from moving further

There is some buying that is happening in this area.

And yet then, climactically, the price goes down on a lot of volatility,

volume increase, momentum increase, velocity increase,

and panic.

So then the prior attempt to stop could be a preliminary support and this could

be a climactic action.

How would we check that?

A rally from the low of the selling climax to the high of the automatic

should be the largest rally in the downtrend that we have seen.

Is it? Yes.

And that acts as a change of character.

After that, we have a secondary test that could come as a lower low and could

have the characteristics of diminishing supply.

And phase C and phase B here, kind

of like, you know, you could probably put it like this, phase C, and then

B is still going to be the largest among the two.

And phase C has a spring and a test.

Phase D, last point of support, its own trading range with local phase C.

And this becomes minus sign of strength.

And this becomes major sign of strength.

And probably that would be my labeling here.

So sometimes it's easier to think conceptually, right? So you kind of

see one event and then does that make sense conceptually, you know, to put it

some kind of structure? Where is the structure?

Okay, well, if this is a selling climax, then I have to have a test.

Okay, could I have a test as a low, low? Yes. Well, there was just a little bit

too much supply and demand was not that present.

So the price just was, just still going down but it did try to rally and then it

went down these are the swings if we would look at them this is the

structure so

um could this be phase a yes is it down sloping range yes

so could we have the sign of strength

commitment above the resistance, yes, and then the backing up action, which

as the last point of support in the larger trading range, to the support

acted as the resistance before. So a lot of points kind of like come together.

So you have to play around with this a little bit.

If you're labeling it horizontally,

I think then definitely this is a selling climax, automatic reaction,

test, phase A. You can do anything here.

So then this is phase B, phase B. And then this is the last attempt as phase C

to take it to the lows. But, you know, there is not enough

supply and it becomes a high low.

So you could do that as well. And then this would be a preliminary support.

Right, okay.

Is the lowest low of the sign of strength rally?

Or is the lowest low of a sign of strength rally here?

Okay, so again, it just depends on how we actually view it.

Anything from the low to, let's say, this level here could be considered a

sign of strength, and then up to here, a major sign of strength.

All right, great.

Let's talk about trade desk. This is our anatomy of the trade.

What do you guys think?

We are in this position.

I don't think that we failed out. We were just staying in this position. The

idea was to look at the test.

So what are you guys seeing here? Give me some answers.

Are we still keeping this position or not? And while you're thinking about

let me kind of draw the analysis that we had last week.

So we're kind of like in this huge, big formation.

We had a favorable entry at the support.

We quickly, with the momentum, hit the resistance.

Supply comes in, and what happens?

Keep it.

Change of character.

If it's a change of character, then...

We're probably staying here, right? So kind of like in this range.

Retest of the prior resistance one way back.

Halfway back, yes.

So somewhere here.

So let's kind of look at this in phases.

Would we say that the behavior in this area right here in

this phase is bullish.

What do you guys think? Is the behavior in this area that I highlighted in

yellow, is it bullish?

Yes, of course. Why are you thinking for so long?

you see in front of you a rally that came out of that area. It's an

accumulation, local accumulation.

So therefore, you don't even have to go through the analysis. You already know

the result. You know, it's a bullish behavior.

Okay, this rally, is this a bullish behavior?

Yes, absolutely.

Bullish, bullish, bullish, yes.

Okay, then this emergence of the supply, is this a bullish behavior or bearish

behavior?

And obviously we're looking at the result, and the result is in the

the supply that's coming in.

So we probably would say that yes, there is a bearish behavior

on this bar.

So now we have to test it.

And we would test, we would have a conclusion, either bullish test or more

bearish looking test.

How is the test looking?

Bullish or bearish?

This whole test we are in right now. Does it look bullish or bearish?

Yeah, it looks more bullish. Why? Well, because it didn't really break the

support that acted before as the resistance.

We are coming back into the high grounds here, one half of this area right here.

We almost, you know...

covered the whole length of the daily bar to the downside.

Somebody was saying that this daily bar that was so aggressive to the downside

does not have the commitment below the support,

which is a big deal.

So that it doesn't look like this. It doesn't look like it goes through the

support and then just breaks it. It kind of stops at this support cluster.

So that suggests to us that some demand is behind that volume signature.

If the bar stops like this, like right on the support.

So the test looks bullish.

So therefore, what would we be thinking about our position?

Probably we still would be thinking that.

It's still bullish for us and we still have to see how this volatility will

resolve itself.

Volatility usually would demand the resolution by the successful test

with the higher lows and diminishing supply.

We already see that the supply is diminished here on this bar, so that's a

really good sign, but we're still not out of the woods.

We still have this bar as the bar, last bar committing to the upside, so

this is the level where we could come fail and start retesting 220.

we could stay in the trading range here and we still don't

see a lot of signs of like fast absorption here so that just suggests

you know if we're gonna have attempt to go up maybe not a

really good chance for us to overcome it although momentum here

is moving really fast

Let's just observe. Let's just kind of like see what's gonna be the

continuation.

Oh, this is the incorrect volume signature, yeah.

It's on my trade station.

It's set up in a different way. I apologize, guys.

All right, so I think that majority of you are saying that we're gonna keep it.

Is there anyone in our class that thinks that maybe this is a

good place for us to get rid of this position.

Let me see. Eric is saying, okay, we didn't make a new high or test the prior

high, but no supply coming in. Look at the prior analog. There was some

consolidation before a move up.

And by the prior analog, Eric, which one are we looking at?

Which area?

Something like this?

Right, where we have this down move, a lot of supply, then a move to the

and then this kind of like trading range type of action, and then a move to the

upside, May or July.

Okay, May or July.

Okay.

Okay, yeah, I definitely could see this. Yeah, so a move to the upside.

Yeah.

Well, let's just see. Let's see. I mean, if that would be the analog, that would

be actually a very interesting thing to observe.

And there is a long term support here.

So we could kind of like hit the support again, be close to the support and then

start to take off. But what we can deny in the way how this whole structure

looks is in this.

long -term secular trend.

We have a short -term oversold condition out of which there is a lot of momentum

on a lot of buying, and then whatever supply comes in, it has no capacity

to significantly take us below some support levels.

So it still looks bullish and suggests continuation after the absorption of the

supply that we have here.

Anybody is actually in this position?

I kind of decided that I'm not going to be, just in case, because we're

discussing this talk.

Anyone in this position? No one? All right.

Okay, well, I think this is a really good pickup.

Okay, one person.

All right.

Well, good trade.

Good trade.

I wonder what the next group is gonna decide, if somebody's gonna kind of

transition into the new cycle, into the new semester.

This would be a really interesting stock to follow. Maybe we'll just follow it

as anatomy of the trade fall semester, and the new group would carry on the

trade. So we'll see, we'll see.

It's just interesting to still go and analyze it uh you know and see

what is what's going to happen all right so here is um here's a trade

that i wanted to show you guys and it comes from ronnie and uh

ronnie thing just want to share a trait that i was able um to put on do you do

what i've learned through your courses um right so let me just kind of Okay,

I should have cleaned this up a little bit. I apologize.

Okay, so long -term position.

I was thinking of closing due to the huge short -term gains.

Was not, I'm sure.

Okay.

any input on the trade itself or things I should have looked for the closest

future, okay, would it be a good, okay.

Well, first of all, I'll just quickly look.

First short -term position taken here at 51 .4. Second short -term position

taken here at 46 .7.

Long -term position have taken in this previous range.

So you have a sizable position

as you go in into this run and by the way what is this stock what is the

i couldn't see it on the on the chart can we share that

oh and ronnie is not here okay so

i'll have to ask ronnie but you know would be good to know and then look at

where the price goes and so um ronnie is closing it at one

100 % return and for the long term position

in a good period of time and then for the short term position literally in two

months.

I would say any time you make this type of return, you take it.

Because it's acceleration that is not sustainable.

And therefore, you're going to lose a lot of the unrealized gains that you've

created.

So, first of all, fantastic trade in terms of the entry points and in

terms of staying in the trend.

It's really, really hard to stay in the trend like this where it goes into the

overbought condition so early.

And then...

another overbought condition, and another overbought condition.

And it kind of stays ridiculously there at that level and still accelerates up.

And that all happens behind a lot of volume signature.

Let me show you what could have been and what would never should be.

And I'm just a little bit...

emotional here because I'm going to show you my mistake, my recent mistake.

This is probably is costing me, well, a couple of trades are costing me like,

you know, the year more like an outlier year. So

this was a recent favorite as a momentum stock.

I'm sure that, you know, somebody might have had even position here together

with me.

I was looking at kind of the same structure as we have in, you know, trade

only on a smaller scale.

Got in into the position right here on this reaction, all option leveraged.

And as the price goes up, I'm looking at, you know, very

short term overbought conditions.

and it just shows me overbought condition right here, and I'm getting it

around 45. So I'm making 50 % return in a

month and a half, and I'm not staying for the last climactic run right here.

look, even right now, it just shows a lot of strength.

So that trade that Ronnie has conducted could have been this type of trade.

It could have been so badly constructed and conducted like I've done this one

right here without letting it go.

And something that, by the way, you guys should be extremely interested in this

material.

Franz and I are regularly now working on the videos, Anatomy of

the Trade, on the trades that we've done.

And by the way, I want you to encourage, and probably I'm going to make it as

one of the homework assignments in the new semester.

You guys are off the hook. I'm going to ask them to submit their trades for our

anatomy of the trade post -analysis.

So we'll see what kind of trades they're going to send.

But it's just such a great process.

to go through the post analysis to look at your trades and to analyze why did

you do what you did then i started thinking why am i selling into this well

there is no volume signature of climactic nature yes it

increased and it looked maybe on a chart like

Like this, it looks a little bit climactic, right? We're going into this

already have, you know, a sizable profit.

What do you do?

Well, the rule should be scale out.

Take one third. It's almost like you've taken maybe like that emotional edge of

being in the correct trade and just timing your exit correctly, right?

So you want to...

it's already a profitable trade.

And even if you take one third off and the other two thirds are gonna

fail on you, that one third is gonna cover that loss of the remaining units

and still give you some small profit.

So that's what you're working with at this point.

And of course, a more correct decision was to scale out Take that,

again, kind of like an edge off, and then continue with this trade.

Nothing threatening here. Supply comes in, but doesn't produce that reaction.

I'm biting my nails after I close the position.

Big jump here. I'm already sensing that I'm too late.

It starts its climactic run, and it's more identified by the volume signature

and the gap itself.

and I already seen that supply is coming in. So if supply is coming in, we are

somewhat close, maybe another 10 bucks.

How would I trade this?

Maybe just the intraday is the possibility here, but nothing really on

swing, unless it's very, very short term swing, like two days or so.

But would I close here another,

Probably not. We're probably still anticipating at least a push above 60.

Here is that push, and the volume is even greater than yesterday.

The bar is larger, and it still closes up, suggesting that that close

up, even on this climactic volume, and this is how we would be interpreting the

daily. We obviously would want to go to the intraday as well.

we would be thinking that there is a little bit more left, a little bit more

push, maybe like to 70.

Why? Because of that close. Still a lot of momentum.

So here I would go next day to the intraday picture, and I would look into

runs into 70 and the failure around 70.

Okay, so the next day comes.

70 is hit.

And here just, you know, either you are tightening your stop.

or again, plan intraday.

And somewhere here, you're probably still around 70, you're gonna be exiting

out. So, such a

great selection, such a great timing, and such an

undisciplined exit, and I'm sure that you guys will be

watching the video and kind of like agonizing with me over what could have

you know, a very, very like much trade of the year here, just as a swing trade,

which brings me back to Ronnie.

So think about how hard it is to stay in the run like this. It takes, you know,

not just courage, but this ability to actually fit on the game.

And this is something, obviously, that I'm still learning how to do. So a

really, really great trade overall, great execution. I can't really add a

this. I think that the way how you're scaling out at that bar is just

and fantastic because the next bar is a change of character bar. The next bar, a

red bar, brings a lot of supply.

So just a fantastic trade.

Something that, you know...

I bow to. I bow to this trade.

It's like a perfect trade.

So, you know, we should definitely acknowledge that.

Those trades do not come that often.

And unfortunately, in my arsenal, I don't have a lot of those. I have some

this, but not a lot.

Well, thank you for sharing, Ronnie.

All right, bias game.

I must say.

And this is where, I don't know, there were a lot of exciting points for me in

preparation for this class.

And this is probably was the biggest because

except for one or two people in this class,

we failed as a class to recognize the bias.

Let's look at the social media first.

83 % said that this range is a distribution.

So again, you know, this is an outlier. And I was thinking, why? What

is wrong here?

Did we do something incorrectly?

Maybe, you know, it was too difficult.

because of where we stopped, right? So where are we stopping? Well, we already

know that this was an accumulation. So we stopped right here.

And actually, you know, members of my content team, they were saying, well,

of, you know, a spot where you almost intuitively think

that this is a distribution, just the way how the structure looks.

And remember, guys, what I said to you that I don't want to give you the chart

at this point.

If the chart is at this point, what are we thinking, guys? What are you thinking

at this point?

The price was trying to move down, was trying to commit to the downside, and

then quickly comes back into the trading range and supply diminishes.

bullish or bearish at that yellow point?

Is that a clearer point than the one that I gave you?

Than this one?

I think it would be, and that's why it's not as challenging.

So therefore, the key here at this point is to understand bias

from the data that comes.

So basically, by the time we get to this point, we already should be bullish.

And this acts only as a confirmation to us and we are actually loading up.

And we're not thinking that, you know, about the analysis itself.

So I started thinking, okay, well, I'm kind of still gonna go with that.

We're still gonna...

be in the middle of the range.

So in the range kind of turned out to be in the middle here.

In the middle of the range, this is where the buy is always gonna be.

And then from there, you have to think what it's gonna be to the downside or to

the upside.

And then I thought, well, what is the biggest problem here?

Let's just think about this.

kind of like the overall

feel that we have.

What are we failing at?

Are we failing at identification of the bias itself?

Or are we failing at the identification of the character?

And I want, I want, to you to

think about this as we go through Dimitri's logic here. So I'm really

to Dimitri because he sent me an email early on.

And sometimes, guys, when I see your emails and I kind of, you know,

through the emails with some of you, I have this, you know, like quick

correspondence where I might, you know, push a couple of sentences towards your

way and just.

What I want to do with those quick emails to you is I want you to keep

until this class about some other concepts.

Think about what is the character here.

And one of my questions to Dmitry was, look at this piece that I sent you. And

this was from his email. I just cropped it out.

And I said, could you please analyze this for me?

this downtrend it's clearly a downtrend lower highs

lower lows so let's analyze it together with mitri and let's

see where the logic brings us okay so i'm really grateful to

dmitry that he was so open you know to do this the buyer starts to the downside

Hold on a second.

We actually don't know.

I mean, like if we would be, if the assignment to start here, we probably

know what the bias is at this point.

So the swing one, the orange one, is I see an increase in volume and increase

the spread.

My bias is down. Now bias is down.

Next swing.

I see demand.

I came in creating a stop in action of swing one.

Yes, we have a climactic bar here, and then we have a change of character,

suggests what?

A trading range.

Our trading range develops like this.

It's an expanding triangle,

kind of like diagonal.

So all of our tests come on the support level.

like this, and then that creates a horizontal structure.

The price doesn't commit above the high swing number one, although I

saw demand come in at the bottom of the swing one to see, and I see no bullish

result, and my bias remains to the downside.

Okay, well, demand definitely is here on these two bars, on the three bars,

actually. one, two, and three. So somebody's seeing the value here.

That's usually what you're gonna see at the oversold condition.

What kind of rally we have, we can't even overcome this bar.

So we still in the downside bias here.

On the last two bars, by the way, some supply comes in.

which still tells you that we still have some selling.

Scion, the swing goes down back to the support area. The spread to the downside

is decreasing relative to swing number one. There is less volume and less

velocity to the downside on swing number three. My bias is not bullish yet, but

starting to take note that the downside bias is losing validity.

That is not true.

Downside bias is not losing validity yet. There is no failure

yet of the downside bias.

The observation is correct. The deduction is wrong.

What is the observation?

That the spread on this reaction is showing

deterioration of selling.

There is less selling.

We see that also in the volume confirmation.

Supply goes down on the overall volume diminished character.

What is the deduction here then?

Where this happens, this happens contextually at the area of the support.

Off here on the diminished selling, we would be expecting some kind of rally.

Rally does not negate a downside bias that we are in.

We're going to say that the rally is going to either confirm

bearish bias, and this would mean that the rally would have bearish

characteristics, or that bias would fail.

Downward bias would fail.

and therefore a rally would have bullish characteristics.

Okay, let's see how we're judging the next rally that is in blue.

Increased spread, correct, and velocity, correct, to the upside on the overall

decreased volume signature, correct.

Ease of movement to the upside, incorrect.

Why is this incorrect?

The ease of movement would not only show a commitment, but also sustainability

of the move.

We don't have a sustainability of the move. We have a temporary commitment and

then failure, so this acts more than upthrust.

And not an ease of movement.

Higher high is created, bias is starting to turn up to the upside.

Incorrect, because after the upthrust action, we are coming back into the

So our commitment, what looked so bullish, is just temporary and therefore

line still with the bearish bias.

It was not negated. It has not failed.

All right, let's go to the next one.

Swing number five.

Price spread and velocity increases again back to the downside. Let me

just clean this up. We're looking at this reaction right here.

Let's come back. Price spread and velocity increases again back to the

Is this the correct statement or incorrect statement, guys?

What do you think?

Is this a correct statement or incorrect?

Is there an increase?

All right.

Uh -huh.

And Dmitry is asking exactly the question, you know, that should be

Mitri is asking relative to what? Relative to science swing?

And that's the key, right? So what are you comparing this to?

If you're comparing this to science swing, then definitely we have

increase in velocity,

spread is increasing, and so on and so forth.

But what if you're comparing it to the first leg, to the downside?

then when you look at this spread right here and comparing it to this one, you

kind of see that it's not as large as spread number one

right here.

So the largest spread is actually diminished and also has a tail. So if

would take from open to the close, the actual distance that was traveled from

one commitment to another,

you see

And it's very subtle.

And that's why, you know, we are in this class and that's why I'm learning.

I'm learning as well, guys, you know, how to see this, how to interpret this,

how to teach this.

But this is a slight nuance right here.

This spread is slightly diminishes.

And if it slightly diminishes, also let's look at the progression.

I'm jumping a little bit ahead, but here is our support cluster that was created

by one low and by another low. So the next commitment comes, the

lowest close comes right here.

This is the low, this is the close.

This is as much as the price could have committed on that.

with so much effort.

So what does it tell us then?

Why couldn't it commit more with so much effort?

There was something in the way.

What was it? The opposing force.

Some demand came in at that point. So now we're thinking, hmm, interesting

picture. We have some demand here.

That comes in, and then we have some demand somewhere here that comes in on

two, three bars.

And it looks more like value buying. Why? Because demand comes in, and then

price rallies, but there is no continuation.

And we kind of see that again in this picture with the demand.

Demand is not buying on the way up.

Demand only buying value.

And that suggests retesting again.

And when it retests again, demand comes in again and produces now

slightly different picture.

If we're talking about analogs, then which analog is the

best analog? Which analog is the most bullish analog that we could see?

Effort, effort.

effort. Compare the effort that comes in.

And compare the structural position of the largest bar

to the downside, stopping bar,

and then reversal bar.

That's the structure.

Largest bar, stopping bar, reversal bar.

largest bar, stopping bar, and these two are reversal bars.

This is the smallest effort

that is producing

the best result.

Why is this the best result? Well, because the largest bar to the downside

the smallest among the three.

Stopping action is not that threatening. And then more importantly, the demand

that comes in produces commitment to the upside above the high

of the down bar, which never happened before.

And the bullish bars are the best that we're seeing.

So that's just on the demand side.

on the value demand. And value demand is really hard to see because not in

a way that, you know, to identify it. No, we could identify it really quickly,

but it's hard to see because it just buys and goes away, buys and goes away,

buys and then it requires momentum traders, institutional traders to come

to kind of like push above.

Otherwise, it's just going to kind of grind up like this and then momentum

traders are going to start picking it up well let's continue really quickly i'm

not going to continue here with mitri's analysis admitri i think that you kind

of see already where i'm going with this right so again um we're learning how to

make correct observations we're also learning how to make correct

This is not the end of this analysis.

Obviously, let's see what happens next.

On the increased demand signature over the previous period, we are seeing

maybe a slightly better rally, but also the rally that fails.

So, and there are some suggestion that there is, you know, maybe some selling

into those up bars.

Okay, well, what would this selling produce?

Last reaction.

How much lower do we commit? This is probably the lowest commitment that we

here with two progressive closes to the downside.

But then again, when we look at the extent of their aggressiveness on the

breakdowns, we don't see a lot of aggression to the downside in the

And then we see more.

ability you know to travel on the increased demand signature here so

also looking at the character was which the price moves on the last swing to the

downside look at the spread it doesn't move the same way it was the same

velocity it was the same momentum so therefore selling is more muted

And it's just that the buying is not that strong. It has to go to some value

point in order for the value buyers to appear.

Okay, also another point that I want to make.

How about this?

When we look at this chart and we look at the trading

range and the support line,

And then we look at the volume signature and we're thinking, okay, there is

really nothing that's going on here, here, here, here, here, here, here,

until probably this point.

A very homogeneous volume signature, a very homogeneous price signature in the

way of the texture. It looks the same.

It kind of produces the same type of the reactions.

If there is volatility, it's short -lived and the volume signature does not

increase.

What happens next that is so different?

So here we see volume increase and we know that there is an effort to do what?

To push the price down.

Down below which level? Well, definitely...

This acts as a change of character, initial, so below this level.

Any other levels? Well, maybe this level right here. So kind of like this

support cluster.

Do we have commitments to the downside? First time, no commitment.

Second time, no commitment.

Third time.

Only one commitment suggesting some kind of weakness.

Force time, depending on how we look.

Here are all of the relevant support lines that we could possibly come up

Do we have a commitment below this line right here? Yes, we have two progressive

closes below.

Below this low.

Yes, but it's very short -term lift and the price recovers really quickly.

So we are seeing some limitation on the result in

terms of where we are trying to commit.

And that's on the overall increase in the effort.

So we should interpret this as increase in effort with...

marginal capacity to commit to the downside, but not producing really a big

action to the downside.

And obviously the trick was all in the character.

So the character of how the price moves is more important than the length of the

swing down, Mitri is asking.

Sometimes,

the bias is gonna be more evident from the character than let's say the price

structure itself.

It's almost like you see how the selling was so aggressive and then it just

becomes less and less and the buying starts to produce much easier movement

the upside.

So you wanna catch that moment when selling shows that

diminished strength characteristic.

And then demand is starting to show the ease of movement.

And that moment is the moment of synchronicity.

And that's when we want to come in into the position.

Francis says, September, October could fall as upthrust of the distribution.

Yeah, absolutely.

I mean, this looks like...

this upthrust of the upthrust type of situations in phase C, and

you're thinking that we are in the downtrend.

But also we have to consider that this is a much larger structure.

We still kind of like not out of the woods here, even though low, low, low

highs, but all of the supports were at the point, even this one, it's still

in reference to this initial reaction.

So until we actually commit to the downside, we can't really say that the

downtrend is confirmed.

And I know this is like a late confirmation, but that's technically,

where it should be.

Okay, why isn't September

17th?

with distributional character into the October 1st.

You could label it like this. Yeah, you could say reaccumulation distribution

here, and then you kind of go into what? Into another distribution type

of thing, like a TP formation maybe.

I'm looking at this reaction and this reaction, and I'm seeing that they are

different in the character, not in the magnitude,

because that still sustains the trend, but in the character, the spread is

increasing.

And that's the only clue that we see, because the volume signature is actually

okay. So that starts to define the range, and then this we see more as an

upthrust then.

swing number seven okay and brown yes

so as i said mitri um just looking at how the price moves

look at this movement and look at this movement

much faster right each spread is much more here

as well

So it takes even more days to produce this type of move.

So there is less willingness to sell, and that's why it kind of like goes

goes down, goes down. Or swing seven, so this one right here.

There is still some supply here for sure, and that's what kind of produces

reaction.

They bought in into this here.

Some momentum buyers probably thinking that, yeah, this is a spring.

Reminds me a lot of what we just went through in October, December of last

kind of like that type of structure.

Reaccumulation, change of character, consolidation, and then the last

there is some supply that comes in here, in this bar and then on this bar right

here.

So I think that some of them are looking at the failure here, it's an up thrust,

they're shorting, and then again, as they short, you want to see what kind of

result we're gonna have to the downside.

And character -wise, it's not really there.

I think it was a difficult one.

And I think that this is a really good wake -up call for us on the

part of the character that we need to be very focused

on about how we see this character.

How does the price move?

It's not just the commitment to the downside.

And if it's a commitment, then is it a temporary commitment or not a temporary

commitment? There are quite a few ways.

Well, if I didn't confuse you enough, here is the pop quiz.

On the top, we have the last bias game.

At the bottom, I'm giving you a new structure.

I want you to think about this for maybe like a minute or so.

Maybe two minutes. I want to give you a little bit more time, to be fair.

And I want you to tell me, based on everything that we've discussed

about chart number one on the top, what kind

of bias would you give this chart?

All right, guys. Your minute or two starts right now.

Think about what kind of bias the second chart has.

All right, guys, where are you with this second chart?

Let me know. I have... Okay,

hold on a second.

Okay, Larry, did you say down for this chart? And Rick, did you say up?

I kind of missed those.

Were they the entries?

Okay, yeah, thank you for confirming that.

All right.

Okay, so I'd say that we're probably, you know, if you're still thinking, you

know, this is the time to submit your answer.

So we are predominantly on the bullish side.

And we have maybe a couple of answers on the bearish side. Okay, great.

So the reason why I put this chart on is I was just looking at

this chart and I was thinking, in a way, the structure kind of looks the same,

right? So it kind of has this upward momentum after a change of

character.

A change of character in the middle of the range.

In this case, you know, you could argue that this could be one as well.

But this one breaks the uptrend type of upsloping structure.

So we have the last high at the same point of time.

And then a trading range and then some kind of shake lower

low and attempt to go up.

So structurally looks kind of the same, wouldn't you say?

Very close.

What about volume?

Is it the same?

What about volume signature?

So is effort signature the same as on chart number one?

Charting is saying no.

Okay, well, what's different about it?

I probably would be thinking there is more volume here

at the beginning of

this.

trading range right so if we look into let's say this area right here this is

the analog there is nothing going on here but there is a lot tons of going on

here so what is going on here then why why is volume

signature increases and then after that we have breaks to the downside

Eric is saying that's selling.

Francis is saying COO is unloading.

Demand is getting stuff, trend trades.

Yeah, COO is selling.

Exactly. I mean, we're having a stop in trading range.

Who is selling?

Value investor is selling at this point.

So in our view, this is a part of the sale is selling into the strength.

We see how the price goes up, stops, goes up, stops, goes up, stops, goes

up, stops again.

So all of this selling, selling, selling, selling again.

Okay, so we have sold in this area.

Now what happens here with the CO?

CO becomes inactive.

If CO has sold the shares and CO is interested in this position

anymore,

then the volume signature is going to fall down like this, right? So, boom.

We see that. Not only that, the result of that, just because

demand has fallen down, is going to be the rallies of what kind of character?

The ones that are going to be not that great.

the ones that are going to come into the area of the previous selling and

they're going to be sold into like here, like here again, especially on some

kind of upthrust action.

And then after that, when there is an inability to go up, then they're going

start capitulating in a big way.

Institutions will start to recognize that.

Well, there is no absolute or relative return, so we got to get rid of this

before it just jumps down on us and we can't even get out of this position.

So they start early capitulation and then we could see this in the volume

signature.

Let me ask you this question again.

Look at the price structure.

Doesn't it look the same?

So what's different?

Different context behind the volume signature.

We could go a little bit into the details here as well. I would argue that

this move and this move are different in character.

Look at how the volume is expanding. It's expanding here too, but relative to

the previous volume expansions, it's different.

And also the way how it moves.

It has some kind of much easier movement to the downside. There is a little bit

more kind of like aggression on the first two legs to the downside. We don't

that in the upper chart.

The last reaction is very subdued, very kind of like laborious to the downside.

So a slight change in the character as well.

All right.

I thought that would be a really good exercise because the structure looked

same.

So, and yeah, the second chart is a distribution, by the way, if you're

thinking, you know, what this is, what the bias is. So yeah, distribution.

And here it is. What happens next?

We are here.

So we sold.

They sold so much here, and then they went away, and then every time it goes

into the strength, they're selling, they're selling, they're selling, and

they're capitulating finally, and they are out of the position.

There is no COO anymore in this stock. It's almost like that heartbeat

medical tool that they use, and you see the heartbeat like this.

It kind of like...

You know, there is nothing there.

And what happens after that?

The price just slides down.

Nobody's buying, so it slides down. And then when it slides down a lot, it

becomes oversold.

And then more of a technical rally happens.

And then after that, again, there is really... no strength so there is even

selling into into the rally okay um

other examples of the accumulation distribution like structure that would

volume at the beginning where we identify sales selling that would

up being a reaccumulation yes and that's why you have to kind of like start with

the story i thought that you know this area right here was significant in the

way that it told us that the trading range is coming up.

And then the volume signature said it's reaccumulation.

And then everything unfolded in kind of like under this scenario.

It was a trading range and it became an accumulation.

But it had an area where it became volatile and had to absorb the supply.

In the second scenario, right away we're seeing

It's a trading range and it's probably a distributional trading range. It could

be. We need to confirm this.

And then it's being confirmed in this area right here.

Different assumptions at the beginning and different outcomes.

And yes, it could be this.

And then as this develops, imagine

Something else is going on and then let's say some news come and then

institution starts to buy and it starts producing this type of structure.

So you could have areas where you could have a reaccumulation,

distribution, and then reaccumulation. Those are complex structures.

I've mentioned this actually multiple times and I'm going to give you really

quickly a couple of examples.

By the way, Tesla, still bullish.

There's nothing that's going on there.

So here is a

trading

range in Tesla that had

reaccumulation texture.

distributional texture, and then reaccumulation of texture in the same

range.

So your Wyckoff story would be developing throughout different

here. You would be, your calls are gonna be, and the bias is gonna be

bullish throughout this whole activity.

And then you're gonna say, There is a change of character and there is a

distributional bias.

And then after this rally, you're going to say there is a reaccumulation of

bias. And after this area right here, reaccumulation of bias will be

And then with this rally, it will be confirmed completely.

So and it's just a complex trading range. Why does this happen? Like why is

complexity?

A lot of... promises that are still

in the perception of people are sustainable but then

more reality kicks in and they cannot provide the orders

that people want for buying this car.

And that produces this distributional wave down.

And then situation is under control.

so institutions are starting to buy in but it wasn't resolved completely so

we're going into the trading range and then we're going to see the advancement

another example of this

is

this range

We have a reaccumulation type of bullish environment just after the shakeout.

And then we have distributional pattern.

Then we have the rally that is bullish and the backing up action that is

too.

By the way, I still don't understand why is there so much

bearish sentiment? And this is the discussion for tomorrow for WMD.

Why is there so much bearish sentiment when we just came out of the Apex

formation and we cleared it? And look at how many closes above the resistance we

have. The price is not going down. I mean, yes, we're in the short -term

reaction here, but who cares about that? We're always going to have some kind of

reaction, some kind of reactions as we go up, even in the most bullish markets.

but we did commit above.

So at least temporarily, at least for the time being, I think that people

should kind of look at this and just say, yes, I see it's an uptrend.

All right.

Well, Mitri, here it is. A couple of examples of that type of complexity

we could...

go from one environment into another.

And usually those are going to be multi -year structures.

Sometimes you might see this pattern in shorter formations, but usually this

type of structure presents itself when there is a shift in sentiment from one

site to another, and that happens within the formation itself.

All right, let's go to the next segment.

All right, so homework, yeah, do we want to do this? So I wanted to finish today

probably slightly earlier, maybe like at 5 .10, 5 .15, have some

appointments to keep in the evening.

Yeah, let's go through this. We have about maybe 30 minutes for sure, so

do this.

So what I would like you guys to do, and this is something that we wanted to

establish, you know, even at the beginning of the semester.

didn't.

But I want to give you this little bit of the material from one of the specials

that I've conducted back in June, and that's the trust process special.

I'm working together with one of our content team providers, and we're

on the trust process part number two.

There are some improvements that we're going to bring. That's number one.

Secondly, we are going to create a group,

which we're going to call trading process group.

And this group is going to be.

meeting just once a month.

And on a weekly basis, the members of this group will provide their

feedback on the process that they've done this week. In other words, the

is going to be an accountability tool for us to keep up with the process.

And obviously, each week, we will send you some kind of email material, maybe

like a short video.

you know a short article something to think about something to read and then

will share as a group one file in the dropbox where we could see how

doing so um something very exciting you know to look forward to so with that i

thought that i want to revisit some of the things um that we need to do in

preparation for those classes. And specifically, I want you to start

this because a lot of you are going to end up in that group. It's going to be a

very unique experience that we're going to create.

So I want you to work on this.

I want you to, if you don't have it yet, if you don't have the way of how you

analyze your positions or look at the watch list, I'd say this, okay, well,

forget about the watch list. Just at least concentrate on your position. So

let's say that you have three positions like I have here, actually two

positions.

We have two positions here.

They were opened as bullish, okay, short position, short position, okay.

If you're a swing trader, and you're a short -term swing trader then i would

want you to analyze those positions each day how do we analyze well we would

make our observations and we would make our deductions and the main question

that we would answer is are there any actions for us to take on that

day with this particular position should we add to the position should we get

out of the position should we scale out of this position uh these are the most

common questions. Should we move to stop loss?

So here I'm saying small spread with supply tail on increased volume,

of supply into the weekend strength.

No action is required.

Stop loss stays at 21 .50. And then I progress from one day to another and you

kind of could see how the stop loss stays at the same place and you go

the logic every day.

Okay, so huge spread down on increased volume, bearish action, move to stop

loss. So we are moving the stop loss, and we are showing that on this day

is some kind of action. It becomes, you know, kind of like this yellowish color.

And then the second position, going through the analysis, we are actually

stopped out, I think.

No, we'll most likely be stopped out.

Yeah, and this position has been stopped out on the next day.

we would have an entry here that this position has been stopped out and that's

it this position has been closed and this position will go into the post

analysis this position will still stay on and we still would

want to continue our discussion our analysis every day uh that would give us

that you know habituation um of being in the process of making

the analysis each day, looking at our positions each day, thinking about them

each day, making actions appropriate to the plan each day. If there is nothing

to do, then the stop loss stays at the same time and that's at the same place

and that's it. That's all we do.

And then obviously you want to analyze market every day as well.

And this could be just very... Simplistic observations on the volume

analysis, on the swing analysis, maybe on some strength analysis, you know,

stuff like that.

So I would like you as the homework to show me this process with the

current positions that you have. If you don't have the positions currently, I

still want you to maybe like create some positions and follow them.

At least do this for the trade desk that we are going through.

Establish this routine where each day you look at the market, you analyze the

market, and you analyze the trading desk stock.

Actually, we should have established this right away. This probably would be

best.

All right, well, something for the next semester, guys.

Go through the position, and let's say your position is closed. So now we want

to do our post -analysis.

That's the second step.

And here I want you to identify, you know, what was the original

analysis for that position to even think that, you know, you're going to go in

into this position?

What were some of the tactical decisions, you know, as to where do you

stop loss?

your target risk size, if that's appropriate.

And then what was the actual action?

So in this instance, this was an actual trade, by the way.

Something that I need to discuss was France.

Point of entry, thinking here that we're going to go down and obviously

completely wrong on the bias.

So please don't think that I'm always right.

And I'm trying to show you guys as many trades that fail as possible.

So we are going through my failed trades as well.

And I think that the key misjudgment here was in this reaction.

Increased effort after the failure to commit on

such an aggression.

And that should have stopped me from thinking that there's going to be a

continuation to the downside.

There is no supply coming in right here. So obviously just an analytical failure

to see the correct bias.

How do we deal with the post analysis?

So our, in this case, weekly analysis, and you can do weekly analysis instead

the daily as well, you see the progression of how position

is coming to an end.

Bullish reversal.

on ease of movement, right here. No supply present on horizontal reaction.

Bullish.

Expect, I think. Expect the price to continue up. Stop loss moved to 32.

So at least stop loss was moved from here,

I believe, or here to 32. So it wasn't a significant loss. It was just a partial

loss. And then...

In the post -analysis, we want to go through our

visual recognition skills, trade execution skills, and create some kind

of variance for this trade.

So I'm saying that bias was defined incorrectly.

December reaction, which is this one, has not committed down. Next rally

over 80%. Bullish.

Could have added this, bullish, bullish.

So definitely just a misstep.

Timing.

I still would say that the timing was correct.

Character, I'm saying not applicable, but probably I should say no here.

So by the timing, I mean that the reversal.

happened you know your entry and after the rally so that was yes this was no no

point of entry yes stop loss yes add -ons not applicable because the position

did not develop so we would take this out and then exit yes why yes well

i'm exiting correctly out of the position that is incorrect so that's the

execution right here so overall

I'm still getting the variance that is more positive than negative, right? So

biggest thing here is more analytical.

Two of them out of, let's say, one, two, three, four, five, let's say six.

So that is about 66%,

not 80. So 66 % about.

Is it a good trade?

I would say it's a good trade.

That is a losing good trade.

Why? Well, because even though we were

wrong on the bias itself, so analysis has failed, but everything else was

executed correctly.

You still had to identify correctly a point of entry.

You still had to identify correctly where to put the stop loss and how to

it in the case of failure as well.

So your execution of the...

that failed on the basis of your analysis still was executed

partially correctly.

And that's what we're trying to do here.

So I want you to create these two spreadsheets for yourself

as a homework.

And show me examples of those for the next class.

Take trading desk.

as one of the positions or trade any of the positions that you're in right now

and start analyzing them on the daily or weekly basis like this

okay um that's another trade right so this is illusion

trade this is the winning trade um and again here in the winning trade you

in the post analysis um you want to identify what doesn't work

And then in the trust the process part number two, we'll talk about the process

of how do we deal with this mistake?

Because usually the mistakes are going to be common.

And, you know, as you watch Anatomy of the Trade with Franz and myself, you

know, you probably will hear a lot that there is a commonality of mistakes that

we make. Our task is to define them.

And the process will, and specifically post -analysis, will help you to define

those mistakes.

And then say, okay, if add -ons are important,

then we need to feedback loop that back to where we actually

should be adding to the position. So, for instance, on one of the days, like

each of the day, we maybe could have some kind of column here, add -on.

Add on.

Add on.

And then let's say each day or each week we would be answering this question.

Yes or no?

No. Why?

And you can list some of the reasons why.

No.

Yes.

And because we were forced to answer this question

at the time that we are doing our analysis it brings us to the lifetime

decision to actually add to the position or whatever that

trading decision is in your case so this is something that you know we are kind

of like developing and uh this is going to be a life uh you know life process

something that is going to be you know changeable It's not going to be

necessarily static.

Okay, great. So here is your homework.

Another question.

And three charts are falling.

You know, there's questions, and I think after this we're going to stop. So from

Anindya, question number one, please comment on my anticipated price movement

based on horizontal volume.

Okay, here we are.

hub spot, also a very interesting stock, definitely in

that area that is really, really hot.

So we're seeing a decline.

Again, look at the character of the decline, how it happens.

What can you say about the character of that decline?

Any thoughts on that, guys?

I'm looking at the initial momentum to the downside and then what happens

afterward.

Kind of like selling that is not really impressive, but it does go

below the support.

Commits there.

Another attempt to commit on increased volatility fails.

Price comes back.

So we're seeing some kind of resistance to go down.

I'm assuming that our bias here is to the upside.

Long -term RSI is above, so that's great. We don't have the relative

so this would be a structural trade for us.

It's very crucial to understand how the price would move to the upside, or

something that we've discussed in the...

Last classes, you know, we were talking about the supply and demand horizontal

volume signature. It's on the left.

So let's kind of look what we could see here. If the price does not fall back

like this, and our assumption is that we're going to go up, then

the probable path with which the price is going to, you know, travel up is

to be what?

So let's say that we are here somewhere.

Supply is increasing.

So we're probably going to have a reaction right away.

Something where supply comes in and shows itself.

Demand is not very good here. So we probably just will be thinking about

about this area right here.

So something like this. Again, if price continues to the upside.

then the next attempt to go up should into this increase of the supply.

And then we would retreat back probably to this

demand again. So it could go again to the downside. And that just kind of

you. that there is so much supply in this area right here this is going to be

crucial to see if the stock could overcome this price this

level here specifically and this is where that you know huge supply is

and not just on one bar but on this one as well actually on that upper bar even

more so So supply is going to be extremely strong in this area. I would

I would want to see how the price overcomes that supply first before I

the position.

So let's just assume that maybe there is some kind of absorption that could

happen. But again, we're seeing that there is definitely a grinding up

type of action that we might expect if the price does not fall down right away.

And then after that, this increase of the supply is going to be

noticeable for us, and then overcome, and then

here we're going to lose that resistance.

So acceleration should happen in this area where there is supply

in the absorbed manner. And then think already.

what has happened with this type of move.

We're probably thinking here a sign of strength in the backing up action.

So a period of absorption should happen just because supply is so strong.

So that probably would be, if bullish scenario is to materialize, I would

be thinking about kind of like this grinding up type of action.

Okay, second question. This is a long -term chart. Is my analysis correct that

the accumulation complete ready to move up?

Okay, so the same stock and we're looking into the first area right here

produces that change of character. A lot of strength possibly going into phase

B. I would be thinking that this is phase C.

I like how the PMO, you know, this is, A momentum

indicator is showing some divergence.

So that shows some promise. I like how the volume signature is increasing here

and the price does not go lower.

And I like that the long -term momentum is staying up.

Some things still need to happen here, right? So we still need for the

confirmation to have some kind of overcoming.

of the supply in this area right here at 160, and then I would be more inclined

to commit to a more bullish view, but definitely there is a change in

Okay, and something really cool that I need to send, do you use horizontal

volume in the PNF chart?

So I definitely have seen it, but I use more of the vertical volume signature

in the PNF. And I thought that was so cool. And then I put two charts together

so that we would guys see how the vertical and PNF are

slightly different for the horizontal volume.

Why is it different? Well, because the columns are going to have their box size

of five.

That's going to condense a lot of the price action, and therefore your volume

going to be different. Even the vertical volume is somewhat different when we

look at all of those volume spikes and the moves.

So I would probably be thinking of maybe analyzing it.

differently.

But still, here is that supply level that we need to overcome.

And until it's overcome, we would be thinking that this is a quite

move to the downside.

It actually looks above this area right here as a sign of weakness.

So we need to resolve to the upside with the absorption of the supply above 160.

Until then...

I would be still looking for the confirmations of this pattern.

If it's gonna fall from here, where would it fall to?

Well, here is our increase of the demand.

So these would act as our targets.

Target number one, target number two, target number three.

Kind of quickly, without even calculating anything, you could think

the price would move, especially to the downside, because the history to the

downside is already written in the horizontal volume signature, whereas the

movement to the upside above the price would not have any history of supply

-demand being there.

All right.

Okay. So I think that's it for today, guys.

Quite a lot of topics that we've covered today.

And I thought that just a collection of all of them, especially the bias game,

it was a really difficult bias game. Majority of you have failed.

Social media have failed. I probably would have failed as well if it would be

presented to me like this.

So I was thinking a lot about that and how to actually differentiate some of

nuances right there. And hopefully, we kind of got to that point where we saw,

clear distinctions in the context of the volume signature, where it occurs,

where that saline occurs, how textures change,

and just all of that should help you out

just to think about those concepts from different

perspectives. So hopefully that was...

helpful. All right, guys, I will see you tomorrow in WMD. I will see you for

those of you who signed up for the long -term campaign on Thursday.

I will see you for the last class in the practicum next Tuesday.

Let's do the homework. I'm really curious to see how you guys are going to

this. And I'm looking forward to 2020 because as you could see, everything is

kind of like a whirlwind and becoming, you know,

more in -depth, more complex, and yet at the same time, hopefully much simpler

for the understanding.

All right, guys, with that, happy trading, and I'll see you next week. Bye