Original subtitles

Hello, everyone. Today is November 19th, and this is the 11th session of the

WICA Practicum course. Do you guys know that this is the last cycle of the

Practicum? There will be no Practicum, official Practicum course. It's going to

be just WTC part number two, which we will call, you know, unofficially

Practicum. So this is still going to be the same class.

Today, we're not going to talk about the selection.

We're going to concentrate today on the bias game.

because I've been receiving quite a few emails in regards to the

last two bias games and how similar they are in the structure and in the

signature and how different they are in the bias.

So some of you expressed this kind of like, you know, desire to go through

again.

I first thought, well, maybe this is...

kind of like, you know, with each bias game, we have something like this.

And by the way, guys, I want to talk about this a little bit, but maybe we

should jump into that bias game, but all right.

I've told you guys that your ratio

between the correct answers and incorrect answers

is probably where you are right now with this material,

specifically with the analysis on the bias side, right? So is it accumulation

is it distribution?

So that's number one.

And a lot of you were coming to me in the emails and were saying like, I

see your point now.

Like if I would be stripped of all of my insecurities and I would say, okay, I

have to be extremely transparent with myself and this is my knowledge, this is

where you are.

Having said this, some of you guys expressed some anxiety that, oh, my

rate is not that high.

I want to reiterate that our goal here in this classroom is

to get you over 40 % level.

Why 40 %? Because if you are trading and each trade contains,

let's say, three to one reward to risk built in, then with 40 % being

correct, you will be making money.

You will definitely not lose money. You will be making money. It's just a matter

of how much you're going to be making money because the sequence of trades

come in a different way. So you have to understand that as well.

Then I also said that there is still something that we want

to do on our side, on Wyckoff Analytics' side, on my side.

understand how to teach this material better.

So I'm definitely taking a lot of responsibility if some of you guys are,

know, coming to the class and just saying like, you know, I just don't feel

progress. I'd say embrace this moment. This is great.

You're seeing something that maybe before was not seen.

Something that maybe you have not explored before.

Right? So suddenly it's on the surface.

Let's be grateful for the knowledge, for the awareness that something is not

working. And then let's make next step.

Let's definitely dwell more on like, wow, this is great.

I'm failing. So I know that I'm failing because in a lot of cases, we just don't

know that we fail. We kind of hide it from us. Well, this game exposes you,

know.

To the kind of like to the last, you know, thought that you have about, you

know, what this is.

So another thing that I want to say is that I probably

came out as this kind of like persona that knows it

all. And therefore, every call that I make is, you know, correct.

This is far from the truth.

And, you know, a lot of my trades are not winning trades.

And it's not because I don't know how to do this correctly.

It's just mostly because sometimes I just don't do this correctly.

So it's in the process, right?

And sometimes I totally miss it. You know, there are some blind spots on the

analysis side that I have.

So the key for my own individual progression there is always to find

spots. Like I get excited when I feel a roar with the material. Like,

I don't know, I just like this feeling of like, I'm not sure.

I'm not sure. So there are a couple of spots like this and I'm excited about

them. Why? Because, well, I know that.

The more I pay attention and analyze and, you know, build it into the

of how the logic unfolds there, then the quicker, you know, I eliminate this

blind spot. The same is for you.

You should be looking for those blind spots.

If you're feeling frustrated, notice that, right? And then, you know, like

would I work with you in a private session?

Notice that feeling that you're frustrated.

Acknowledge it because, you know, if you don't acknowledge this, it's going to.

pop up somewhere else somehow in a trade or in a conversation or in the

exercise, anything.

And then once you acknowledge that feeling, you know, what is the next step

improvement, right? So, okay, what is the benefit of that step?

What is the course of that step? Am I willing to make that step?

How do I actually make it? How do I incorporate it in my process?

I think that we've created a great process here with the practical where

week, we have this discussion on the bias right eric is saying it's difficult

to accept that there is no certainty in trading it's a game of probabilities i

would agree with that and you know when i play poker um i always think about

trading and you know what is kind of like easier to play what is harder

To me, poker is much harder because of that uncertainty, because there is much

more uncertainty in poker game than, at least to me, how I feel it, you know,

than with the markets.

The markets, once, you know, there is an edge, once the trend is established,

it's there.

It's going to stay there for the whole price cycle. We don't know exactly when

the price cycle will end, but we'll see some signs.

and we'll kind of act on that. In poker, you don't know which card comes next.

There could be, let's say, only 20 cards left, but how do you know exactly which

one is going to come? You have the probabilities, but probabilities even

when, let's say, 95 % is going to be a black card, and then only 5 % is going

work out as a red card, and that's it.

So you kind of have to accept this. In the markets...

more uncertainty in like every day -to -day move sometimes there are periods

where there is uncertainty because there is no institutional sponsorship but

once the reason institutional sponsorship once they show up the uh

then all bets are off you know they will sustain the trend with their behaviors

unless you know something like extreme comes

And you could create that edge. And we are trying to create that edge through

the bias game, right? So we want to understand what are institutions doing

the specific structure and how do we play it? So let's jump into this. As

always, our discussions here are for educational purposes. Please stop

this recording and read the whole disclaimer.

And I'm going to start with different looks. I'm going to give you guys your

work. right because you send that to me i go through each homework if i don't

reply you know this means either i don't have a significant reply or i'm not uh

replying just kind of like you know in general right uh because

you know i'm just running out of time or anything of this sort um

so today we're gonna spend a lot of time on the bias and I want you to start

kind of like following some kind of, you know, I want to develop step -by -step

for you because I think this is where it's all going.

You're basically asking me for a step -by -step approach as to how do I

specific chart for the bias.

And hopefully by the end of it, maybe going into the next session, we'll do

that, right?

So this comes from Corey, I believe.

I didn't put the name here, but I believe it was Corey. Corey, was it you?

Let me just see if Corey's here.

Yeah, okay, let me know, Corey, or whoever this is, let me know.

Yes, okay, great, Corey, thank you.

So we're just gonna go through questions and then we're gonna come back and we

kind of like, we'll do this exercise.

or redo this exercise.

First question, in which scenario we can say the shakeout

was observed by demand quickly showing bullish character within one or two

And that was the question for many of you.

This whole move, is this, what is it, right?

What is it? Let's just say that this is Let's go through the structure. If this

is an accumulation or reaccumulation rather, then how would we label this? So

this would presumably be a phase C.

Then this happens in phase D.

We probably would label this. This is still a test of what came before.

The test suggests that there is more supply at this point or demand is

and therefore this will be a test and because this is a low low as a minor

of weakness this is a reaccumulation labeling if

this is the distribution then we're still going to have that element of the

of weakness right and i think this is just something that maybe we kind of

neglected to the group a little bit

what does it mean, let's say, for the distribution to have that sign of

in the middle of the range in phase B?

It kind of shows you that there is a progression to the downside. We had

previous attempt to go down, next attempt to go down, and then the next

successful. On the increase in supply signature, we have increase of the

to the downside.

So at this point, We're going to be bearish, and we're going to say that the

next rally is going to be either confirming that bias or

it's going to fail, and the bias is going to change.

Okay, so that's that question.

Hold on a second.

How quickly we would be judging bullish behavior,

right? So we're seeing a lot of effort coming in here on this bar.

And then there is still continuation.

The volume is pretty high, but there is less progress. So result is diminishing.

Effort stays high.

So that suggests some demand is there.

And then here is your recovery.

It does look like a sprint because recovery happens, you know, really

So I probably would be thinking here that this was some kind of like oversold

condition. That's why the price recovers really fast.

But it definitely had some elements of the supply.

If you look at this bar, if you look at this bar, this bar, then this bar, you

see that supply has come at the top into the value cell.

Then we had an increase.

of supply and increase of supply going through the support.

So this whole area right here looks like selling first value

and then there is an acceleration of selling

into the

low of this reaction.

Compare that with, let's say, well, maybe not the greatest example here, but

compare that, let's say, with this reaction.

So we have like one, two, three lows.

One, two, three. So we see that there is some kind of diminished supply

characteristic at the end of this reaction.

Whereas this signature is slightly different, right? So we're seeing more

kind of like increase of the supply throughout this whole thing.

Increase into the value selling, increase on the way to the downside, and

increase into the capitulation zone.

So it seems like there is a lot of synchronicity with which effort is

to the downside and result to the downside is increasing.

And that suggests this bearish bias.

Okay, well, if we're talking about the bearish bias, then what has happened

prior to that?

Supply comes in, stops temporarily, the price from going up, more supply,

and then less supply, less demand, even less

supply and less demand on this rally. We are expecting some kind of reaction

because we see how the price

stops from moving further up.

It was moving on decreasing volume signature, then the volume increased,

increased, and what do we have? We have less of the result to the upside.

That's bearish, short term, suggest a reaction.

Reaction develops.

We don't really have a lot of supply coming in here.

So we would be thinking here that we're still in the reaccumulation bias.

This reaction does not negate more than half of the profit that we have in the

last run up.

The next rally means really nothing because after the kind of like collision

the supply and demand around the buying climax area, you're going to have an

exhaustion by both.

So you're going to see a lot of the diminished volume signature going into

B. You kind of have that.

And then from here, from this high -low test, where you're still thinking

that this is a reaccumulation, you're expecting the rally to overcome

the resistance.

Does that happen? No, it doesn't. So there is a failure.

there is a failure and remember that each rally that we have of the lows, so

we are in the reaccumulation on the change of character.

We are in the reaccumulation on the test as a high or low test.

Some volume comes in and the price suggests that it's gonna go higher.

So now on this rally, our question is, does this rally confirm or fail the

the reaccumulation bias?

Well, there is a failure here.

And then we see how supply starts to come in.

So this is where we are changing the bias to a bearish bias.

And now we are saying, okay, well, the next rally, you need to confirm or fail

this bias.

And I think that a lot of questions, you know, from your emails were all about

this rally.

And it's just, I don't know how it happened.

kind of white witching, maybe a little bit unconscious, or maybe just the

patterns repeat themselves and we either don't see all of the differences in the

pattern, or we have kind of like a false assumption, a false methodology.

So we have to explore today, you know, which one is which.

So we'll try to figure it out.

Well, if we go with the horizontal trading range, which Corey is using

Then what do we have?

We have one, two, maybe three commitments to the upside.

So that would be suggesting that the price could stay up above the

But then the price still goes down, and then on the test, there is only one

commitment, and then it fails.

So if you take this whole area, you're thinking, okay, I had one attempt to go

up and stay above, I failed.

And then the second attempt had lesser characteristics based on the closes, the

time above the resistance, plus it's a lower high. So it's most definitely is a

failure.

So it's interesting that the price fails two times now at the

point of the resistance.

And now that we are coming back to the rally, we're starting to think, okay, if

there are two failures here, this is probably just the demand that is of

poor quality. How could we else think about this, right? How could we

possibly say that this is demand of poor quality?

Well, we probably are looking, obviously,

the most important thing for us is the level of commitment.

So we want to see that.

If we're looking at the, let's say, downsloping range, and we were

discussing this, and we would say that on the previous bias game, there was a

downsloping range and the price spent a lot of time above.

And we're looking at all of this. Yeah, there is a lot of, let's say, or

spending above the trading range.

Okay, so then where is your next confirmation or failure of the bias

is? I mean, like if your concentration was on this rally and on this rally

alone, and you interpret this as a bullish rally,

then where is your confirmation that this

is a bullish rally?

Are you analyzing what happens next?

And what happens next?

Tries to commit and then still failure, even on the downsloping, right? So this

is the failure right here.

And then we want to look at the way how the failure happens. So in other words,

the character with which the price travels to the downside.

So we see in the first...

travel to the downside was a reaccumulation, reaccumulation.

The third one we said, yeah, there is something of the distribution, a way how

the price is just being sold consistently. It's being sold more and

more on the downside, and the price reacts and creates a significant lower

And then the third one, the way how it fails it comes to the

resistance and it comes on a very exciting rally if you look just at the

so it looks some kind of point of excitement maybe the last one right

this is the first one this is the second just doesn't necessarily have that you

know uh volume characteristic for the second point of excitement but

the price shows that

And then we have this failure.

So if we're bullish here, then this should show us that failure. How do we

In which way? Well, first of all, we're spending more time now

being sold.

So think about institutions, how they're thinking, how they're kind of like

making their judgment.

as to whether to be in this position or not.

They will be looking into the absolute and relative performance.

If the absolute performance goes down really quick but

recovers quickly, they will still be in this position.

If the price does not recover and kind of like stays in these

underperforming conditions, then most likely they're going to get rid of it.

And we kind of seen that through time, what do they do?

They sell off the top, then they sell off the test, and then they

sell into the capitulation as well.

This was kind of like the test of the stop in action here.

And we are seeing that some kind of rally is going to come up.

So more time is being spent.

going down, and then also look at the result itself.

We actually have a quite significant reaction.

I believe this reaction, and this is what, 36?

36 and a half.

28, so that's eight and a half bucks.

And then this one is 35 and...

26 and a half actually a little bit better right so 26 26

and a half okay so that's eight and a half no the same

right and sometimes we would be thinking yeah there is more aggression right

here just because of how aggressively it went down but wouldn't you after the

bullish rally expect that there's gonna be some kind of reaction that's gonna be

more of the bullish character.

Do we see a lot of bullish character here?

There are quite a few gaps to the downside.

If we take swing by swing, then the middle of the swing is actually quite

aggressive.

So I would say that we probably fail in here.

and we're still thinking that this is bearish.

Well, we're expecting some kind of rally from here, so let the rally prove to us

that it's bullish, and then we'll change the bias.

Okay, well, what happens next?

So stop in action, test, momentum bar.

Now, we could judge about this momentum bar in

different ways we could say that um uh it's a really good

volume signature and after this type of momentum off the low what

should we see so a bar like this maybe

a bar like this and then some kind of continuation to the upside

where this

buying translates into increase of momentum

right definitely increase of momentum here we're committing above

but this latest move to the upside neither has expanding

demand nor expanding momentum signature

So it seems like there is just like this one strong push off the bottom, and

then it goes into what? Into the up thrust, and the price does what? Fails

immediately. I actually was contemplating a lot whether to include

not, because to me, that looked more like a reversal bar.

And that gave such a clue to the bias that is about to come.

after this particular bar.

And, you know, I feel that, you know, I was explaining to one of the students,

he was asking me, why are you not including the significant reversal bars,

know, that are bias bars, right? That are actually something like this, where

see

a move to the upside and then it's being reversed by this bar and i'm basically

giving you the definition of the bias here i said to him well the goal

here is not to define the bias by uh

by the last bar the process

here is more about um

How do we recognize the bias when we come to phase D?

Right? And we are in the middle of the trading range.

This is the spot that we would call a springboard.

It means that accumulation or distribution has been done.

It has concluded itself.

the main interest have distributed the stock or acquired the stock.

And that's always the purpose of this exercise, to judge the bias

by the action, by the Wyckoff story coming in into the last bar.

And then if the next bar, which is going to be a significant reversal bar, helps

you out, well, this is even better, right? So your rate should go way, way

than this.

And that's kind of like the challenge of the exercise and that's my challenge to

you and to myself as well.

I did have doubt here since the supply volume was higher than phase A and B,

I believe recovery of the shakeout was so bullish. So I kept bullish bias.

Again, where is the mistake in the logic here, Corey? I think it's in the last

statement.

Even if you are seeing bullishness, which it was, I mean, the rally still

produced a meaningful result. I think that you are doubting the character of

rise in volume. That's number one. So here is one doubt. And then your second

doubt is going to come here around the failure at the top.

But as the rally develops, you're probably going to have that bullish

which is okay because you're still in the trading range.

And there's still some development here that is needed. You might even have a

trade here.

You might say, I'm going to come in right here because I'm thinking that

phase C.

And then you should be getting out somewhere here. This is your exit.

So then you have a short profitable trade.

This is an acceptable trade for us.

Even if we are mistaken in terms of the effort that is decreasing and we are

seeing this still as a result mostly, the price going up and committing to the

resistance. So at some point that bias from bullish should be

changed to bearish.

And then in this area right here, you either confirm or you look for the

failure.

And then we're seeing how the price fails.

All right, let's go to another comment here.

This one comes from Ronnie.

And I'm not going to go through this whole thing.

So I'm just going to kind of like go through this.

That's one thing. But obviously, here is this example.

Two exercises, one after another.

And they have kind of the same structure.

Why don't we do this?

You know, we were thinking about the ease of movement here, although, you

the volume signature is the same. So that's kind of like this question. And

definitely recognizing this, guys, so I'm not, like, trying to go away. I

a lot of it also is kind of contextual, what comes then or what

comes after.

But let's just say that we went wrong.

on both of them.

Let's just say that we said that this was a weak rally and this was

an ease of movement.

I think that your desire is to define everything and to define everything

correctly. Whereas I'm kind of challenging you to be okay with mistakes

analysis and have the process that corrects those mistakes.

So how would we be correcting this mistake here if we're, let's say, wrong

both counts?

What comes before that is not important because we basically give the

definition of the bias, a wrongful definition, just on the rally. So weak

means that we're thinking distribution.

And ease of movement means that we're thinking this is an accumulation.

What is the process of correction?

Well, what comes next?

And this is something that I want you to think about a little bit more. I'm

gonna move a little bit forward here.

So I've created this slide to show you both games, right? So, and

this is the last bar that you see on both of them.

I've created both horizontal lines.

And I've created downsloping lines for you.

So now that I was explaining all of this, I want you to look

at the rally.

And I want you to think what comes next.

And I'm going to give you a little bit of a time to think about it.

So let's just do this.

This.

And then this.

So think about this for a second.

How different are these, I'm sorry, not rallies, how different are these

reactions?

In which way?

All right, guys, so let me see what

kind of comments we have. Okay,

reaction for the second has less downward progress with the increased

effort. That comes from Eric.

Okay, so let me just write it down. For the second chart, so bias gain 24,

second...

has less downward progress, so result to the downside is less, with the

increased effort.

Okay, so effort increase.

Okay, bullish or bearish?

Definitely bullish, right? So we have more effort that tries to push the price

down, what happens?

There is some kind of resistance, right?

Whereas,

In the first case, in buy scheme number 25, look how price moves.

Does it move easier to the downside? With the same increase in effort, I

put these green lines on both of them, and you could see how the volume

signature and the price structure resembles each other. So thank you for

pointing this out.

I mean, there are obviously a lot of differences. I was thinking about a

different exercise here. I was thinking more like...

Find a dozen of differences and dozens of similarities in the price structure.

Maybe we should do this.

But this is probably the main difference between these two reactions.

The character with which the price moves to the downside is so different.

This spread goes down.

Also, look at the thrust to the downside.

Whereas we have an increase here, down thrust.

What else? We see that

this cell in here is somewhat

kind of like singled out to specific bars.

There's really not a lot of bars that had some kind of consistency of selling.

So you have to look at all of that, plus you have to look at where comparatively

the price went.

So in first case, when we look at the change of character and that defines the

law of the automatic reaction, we do the same here and we want to

see where this reaction goes to.

And we see that the reaction in first case, in bias game 25, goes actually

the support level, whereas here it creates that higher low.

So there are quite a lot of distinctions here.

If you, you know, thinking like, okay, well, it looks similar.

Yes, it looks similar because it goes through kind of the same

Structure, uptrend, change of character, retest, retest.

Then some kind of new lower low, lower low. And then this

mysterious rally that we have. And then the reaction.

So looks similar.

And then the volume signature, you know, there is a difference here. So let's

come back to this.

Looks similar as a structure.

But then again, don't be kind of confused that there are some

Okay, well, what are the differences?

How do we observe that difference?

Well, first of all, the change of character has a different character with

the price travels to the downside and the volume signature.

The first case suggests that there is just not a lot of selling. I mean, like

there is some selling.

but it's not intensive, it's not aggressive for the price to go down.

So, and that's why we're still thinking here of reaccumulation.

Here, the picture is different.

The effort has increased so much, and yet the price

is doing what? It's actually not covering a lot of ground to the

recovers really quickly.

So result is actually...

quite positive.

So result to the downside is diminishing.

Effort increase, result diminishes to the downside, means that demand is

it and the bias is a reaccumulation.

Then as we go further, we could see this area right here where a lot of

supply that comes in and then being exhausted, you know, through this

It comes in and it starts to diminish and there is an absorption trading rate

right here. Whereas here we see increase, increase, increase throughout

reaction and then a quick recovery.

So this looks more like selling. This is where we are becoming a little bit more

concerned.

The rally looks the same.

I agree with you. The only difference is the up thrust right here.

If we would be just thinking about how we compare the structure, okay, well, we

probably would be thinking this is the analog right here, last rally,

and then we are failing here.

We are failing here, but the way how we fail is so different.

This is a very laborious move to the downside. This is much freer. It has a

consistent supply signature behind it.

There is a difference in the volume signature as well.

So after this rotational reaccumulation right here in phase A, early B, we're

kind of seeing the supply going low through the structure. Here we're seeing

supply increasing.

And when we discuss accumulation and distribution, we usually attribute those

volume decline characteristics to accumulation, supply decline

to accumulation, and supply increase with the result increase to the

distribution.

What else? I also feel that this was a little bit...

further down the path of where you could have seen this relationship between

these two bars.

Here, I couldn't really just say like, okay, go with this. Then it would be

extremely obvious if I'm, let's say, stopping the chart on this bar.

And for you specifically, guys, I have no mercy for you. You're in this class.

So I want to challenge you as much as I can.

And it's through this challenge that we're going to figure out how to deal

this. All right, let's come back.

Okay, so Ronnie.

Okay, so I think it's kind of probably difficult for us to take, let's

say, just the rally out of the context.

and to define whether it's a weak hands rally or is a movement rally.

I'm probably always going to have that subjective bias here because myself and

my team goes through the creation of these exercises, so we know the answer

this.

But I think that the process is going to be, again, assess each rally, assess

each reaction, and with each rally and with each reaction, create the story.

That goes back to the end of the chart.

Okay, I think we've covered this. Let's talk about Arvind's questions here.

Okay, so where did I go wrong in identifying bias from left to right?

Exactly, a really good bridge for us here.

Number one, switch to down bias on.

October 1st.

Okay, so somewhere here.

Yeah, and I think that even if we switch the bias just on the way down, we're

kind of like seeing, you know, this emergence of the supply and so on and so

forth. You know, I'm not necessarily like, oh, October 1st, the bias has

changed. Probably after this reaction, yeah, I'm changing the bias.

Switch back our bias on 11 -1.

Okay, I would probably be thinking again.

But yes, that probably would be correct to think about.

But again, if we're bearish here, then we need a conclusion of the rally.

We can't really, you know,

I see what you're saying. Okay, so you're saying if there is enough

here, this would be the first place.

That makes sense. Yes, so that's logical. Okay, so let's say that we are

here. Okay, so when is the next time?

When the bias switches, the rationale for continuation of the up bias at the

higher low point in February or March.

Okay, so we're looking here at the higher lows.

Well, there is no need to go through the analysis, right? So again, where would

we change the bias?

I think right here where we fail.

You could also change the bias a little bit earlier on the test because you

have... the up thrust and then the test fails to overcome the up thrust.

So you could make that switch even earlier.

And then as the price goes down, supply is consistent.

That's confirming the bias.

And then you're waiting for the rally and the rally again fails in the last

portion of the chart in February.

And that just confirms the bearish bias.

So that rally definitely,

you know, this reaction on rally definitely.

you know, puts us on the offense as to, you know, are we correct on the bias?

And that probably is a confusion, and maybe that's the frustration that kind

like comes with like, well, the previous chart looks the same.

What comes after that as the reactionary test to that looks different.

Question number two, highest volume, yes.

So why is this not COO buying?

Well, you have to think about the places where a CO would be a buyer,

right? So we saw how there is some selling into these trends,

and this is where a CO is selling.

Then there could be some other type of COs that would be buyers at this point,

and they're seeing some kind of value.

But as the price starts to fail, they might give up this position.

And that could be it. They could give up this position further down the road

into the right.

All right? So they could buy here, sell some here,

hold on even more, sell some here.

This was not positioned that kind of like initiated really well.

And when we say, when we talk about the high volume signature, we obviously talk

about, you know, the composite man. But also think about other institutions that

participate and they could be zero in one trade and they could be weak hands

in another trade.

So therefore, you constantly think about like a rotation.

Are we rotating from strong hands to strong hands, and this is a

or are we rotating from strong hands to weak hands, and this is a distribution?

So we need to think that some of the institutions will have a high signature

behind them, but still will be on the wrong side of the trade.

So therefore, we would be just going through the SWIN analysis and trying to

define the bias that way.

Question number three.

effort is increasing compared to result decreasing earlier analog so

bullish okay so what are we looking at the result right so we've calculated

eight and a half box eight and a half box the same distance if this is the

distance then we're going to look at different things right so obviously a

low um so that's kind of like a bullish case scenario uh what is the character

of the move Well, the spread as we went through this and the volume signature

confirms more of the bearish scenario where supply is increasing and there is

synchronicity with the effort. Effort is increasing as well. So the only thing

is the high or low, which suggests some kind of attempt to rally. We have the

rally and then we have the failure here.

So I think sometimes we could be wrong.

in the bots right here.

But the process should correct us and get us back on the right track.

I mean, if we are going with the mistake somewhere in the middle

of the range, the latest action should give us a clue as to what's happening

here. Imagine this.

You have only this data.

Then what's your bias here?

You're definitely going to define the biases to the downside, and then you're

going to have a short -term attempt to rally.

And then out of the short -term to rally, these are the two most

bars, and they're going to show you that whatever came here probably is of the

same quality as here.

All right.

Here is your Wyckoff story.

And I wonder, you know, obviously if I'm giving you this exercise, let's say

somewhere here, somewhere here, somewhere here, you

know, that's probably more of the distributional story. Why are we

here that this is still a distribution, by the way, guys?

Anybody?

Why are we thinking on this last point of supply that we're still in the

distribution?

Lower high, yes.

absolutely we have structurally we we we still in the lower high we we are

still in the definition of the downtrend rally only goes 50 of the previous

rally okay yes so another lower high here yes

and we have this trading range right here so this looks like that low high

failure

And we are committing below all of the support levels, right? So on this

move, the rally is not that strong. It's not like this. It's not like this.

It's not even like this.

So a rally is a dimension in quality.

There is no demand that is coming in. Whatever demand has come here, there was

no other demand after that.

Supply does not have to be present if the stock has been sold already.

it could just kind of tank under the weight of the price moving down. And we

kind of see that. So this was a leadership stock before.

And then you could see that the capitulation came right here.

So they're still holding on through this area, hoping that that's going to go

up. And then that's it.

They have to close that position.

Ease of down movement, lack of momentum and rallies. Yeah, as well.

Okay, so that was useful. We went through this exercise.

Okay, yeah, a little bit more from Marvin here. So let's just kind of like

through this.

Okay, so some things that I said discussing the bias game here. So

let me just kind of address this.

Okay, look at these two rallies, so I'm assuming this one and which one as well.

There is a lot of momentum, there is a lot of aggression.

Yes, there is a lot of momentum, there is a lot of aggression right here.

In the distributional case, we also had a lot of momentum at the beginning and

this momentum started to fade at the end. Did you mean from the rally low to

rally high?

No, that's not what I meant.

There is a lot of momentum at the beginning of the rally, and then there

momentum here.

Question, and this is different from the step momentum, which is from the high

of one rally to the high of the next rally with a swing correct.

Okay, so I'm not sure about the second question.

And then the last two, we have only momentum of the initial kickoff bar.

Okay, here, right, and then here.

Yes, so would I have given you this, this would be a different picture,

because the momentum is so much different here.

But intentionally, I did not do that.

If you have a momentum and then failure, that's gonna suggest either

consolidation or a reaction.

Same here, and everything is gonna happen, happens in this way, but when

momentum starts to improve, in a significant way, then the test is gonna

better.

All right, we don't see significant momentum buying on the way up,

and that's why it looks like a weak rally.

Question, I actually see a lot of momentum bars, at least five.

Okay, so there's always gonna be some kind of momentum associated with the

reversal off the bottom.

So all of these bars, they have some kind of increase of the momentum.

The key is obviously to see how supply comes in and how it stops that momentum

and the movement up.

So here we're seeing kind of like a free of substantial

supply resistance highs that are being overcome by the price

and therefore momentum still continues.

But as the rally unfolds, that momentum starts to go down.

If there is something missing in this picture, it's the momentum signature

we usually have in phase D. Question, now you're talking about volume, right?

Right here, yes.

All right.

Well. Again, each rally is going to have a momentum, right, behind it. It's just

a matter of what kind of momentum do we have. Do we have an increase in

momentum? So, for instance, if we would be taking this area right here and would

look at all of the up bars, and then we would say on this rally, momentum

definitely has increased.

So that's what I mean by the increase of the momentum on this rally.

Relative to other rallies compared, let's say, to this one, This could be a

momentum of a different quality.

Momentum here is going to be different than this one.

The price moves much faster here, so both momentum and velocity will

This required this type of momentum just because where they bought was in

phases A and B, and then going into C and D, there is really more like a

technical rally that...

where the price goes up just based on the diminished supply, the supply that

been observed in this area.

So there's not really a lot of need for the demand.

So therefore, that momentum is there. It's increasing initially, but compared

other rallies, it's not the same.

And that's just a reflection of buyers.

having bought already and they're holding on to this position and sellers

not necessarily coming in and selling aggressively.

No momentum players, so value buyers do not have momentum signature, only

momentum players.

Yeah, I'm thinking about this definition, you know, what's the correct

say this?

I definitely see the logic here of saying, okay, well, off the momentum you

could develop, I'm sorry, off the value buy here, you could develop that

momentum. That's definitely a case. But also, you might have a lot of the value

buying that doesn't really create a lot of momentum signature.

It's kind of like still going to be in the trading range.

So would we say that the value buyer...

Is the causality for the follow -up momentum?

Yes, of course, but it doesn't necessarily mean that this momentum is

increase significantly to give us the signal or to be, you know, sustainable

quite some time. We see that, you know, in this trade range.

All right.

Okay, well, hopefully we've addressed all of the questions. Here is the next

bias game.

Now, I also had a thought and discussion with one of you today about

the fact that I actually asked you guys

to give me your bias in the class.

And I thought about this, and the argument was, well,

You know, it takes time to come to the conclusion what the bias is.

And if I give you the bias in the class, it might be erroneous bias, just,

you know, something that I quickly look at.

I didn't have a chance to analyze, you know, and then I kind of

psychologically, mentally already tied up to that bias, right?

So I'm... really, really, really thinking, you know,

subjected to the bias that I voiced in the class.

And I think that when I started doing this, that's when frustration actually

started as well.

So you tell me, guys, do you

want me to ask what is the bias here right now?

Or do you want to just keep it to yourself? Why don't we do this? Why

experiment with this? I'm not going to ask you for the bias here. But you can

think, like in your head, you can think about this.

It's like, okay, well, what's the bias here?

Okay, so that's the next exercise.

Let's see where we're going to end up with this.

All right, so let me see if...

I have something that I wanted. I wanted, oh, let's go through the market

charts. Okay, so we have plenty of time. So we'll come back to the bias game

because this is going to be the subject, you know, of our whole class today.

Sean is...

It has sent a couple of positions, you know, something that we've discussed

already, AMD, so I'm not going to discuss that, but this is another

let's quickly look at this.

And the question here, any advice on how to manage it?

Okay, so this is Disney.

Obviously, Disney has this fever of streaming wars, so something

where they are positioned quite interestingly with a lot of content.

And a lot of platforms that they have for the content delivery, they

also have cable penetration with many channels

there. So this is something that is very attractive

right now as a theme and as a stock in particular.

Entering, let's say on this day, I'm assuming your stop loss is gonna be

somewhere here, and I'm assuming that we're thinking that this is phase C.

How do we handle this trade?

Well, we think about the points of entry on the schematic, right?

And we're thinking where the possible add -ons, if the price confirms.

Actually, let me just bring up a fresh chart on this.

the latest i just feel that

let's

go to stock charts and what are we discussing we're discussing

Someone is asking, what was Sean's entry criteria?

Price above resistance over a certain rate of change level.

And I don't think that Sean is with us live. So, you know,

Sean, as you're watching this recording, you know, if you have a chance to

answer this, just email. Yeah, you could do this.

Okay, so no, let's go to Disney. Let's go to the chart.

Really quickly, just to understand the history, we are price cycle -wise in the

huge reaccumulation that had a huge sign of strength in the backing up action as

a trading range.

So we're thinking phase C here, right? So how do we manage it?

We basically want to add a significant chunk.

chunk right here why because out of the backing up action what's going to happen

next an uptrend and um how would we manage our stop loss which is right here

below this this low well every time we have some kind of

commitment to the upside we're going to move the stop loss whenever we have an

oversold condition we would be thinking about adding on

Whenever we are in the overbought condition, we would be thinking about

profits and hedging.

And then obviously the movement of the stop loss would be in such way that

allow the main position to stay on, especially after this type of kickoffs.

by the way, this is gonna be the topic as to how do we trade long -term

campaigns and how do we swing trade long -term campaigns.

for December special.

So we will have a registration page ready for you by the end of this week.

So we want to catch those moments and move the stop loss accordingly.

If you're a long -term investor, it's when there is a big commitment out of

oversold condition.

This is when you move the stop loss.

If you're a swing trader, then you will be moving the stop loss into the

overbought condition and trying to get out on the first change of character.

That's what you would do.

So very exciting stock.

And obviously, let's see how this trade is going to unfold.

Okay, what else is here? I think that's it. Somebody was asking about the

momentum. Yeah, and we're going through the momentum in the November special on

Thursday. Thursday is going to be the last class.

Very interesting.

challenging topic and we're having a lot of discussions there.

I definitely want to understand more about how momentum is being formed

and we are, the classroom environment is just so great just to do exactly that.

So for those of you guys who still would like to attend, obviously just buy on

demand and catch up until before the last class.

like this declining momentum and then we have a breakout in that and before that

we have a divergence right so we have low low on the price high low on the

momentum so we've seen this also in the in the signature

itself for instance

when we look at

this decline there is a lot of momentum to the downside and the

momentum is making the new lower low when we look at the next decline we see

that it takes more time to decline so momentum must be

have slower rate of acceleration um and

also we're looking at specific bars and there are only like three bars that are

really like for sale there. Also look at the signature again.

We kind of seen this in the bias game.

Increase of the supply, let me take another color.

Increase in the supply signature and then how do we see this move to the

downside?

Increase and then decrease.

So different construction of the reaction. Look at this one right here.

One, two, three.

So it has that decrease in supply signature. So here we would be thinking

well, the bias could have changed.

And let's say we are in the bearish bias.

Then we're thinking the rally. Okay, rally was weak, still bearish.

There is no really demand that comes in.

There is no momentum that overcomes the previous highs.

So everything looks weak. We're still in the bearish bias here at least short

term. Then when we go down, we see that momentum deterioration and we're seeing

conditions are changing.

And we want to look at the next rally or how it starts to develop to see if

this bearish bias will be confirmed or fail.

All right, well, how do we do that?

Well, we basically analyze this whole area right here, and we're starting to

that the volume signature starts to increase a little bit, and that is on

background of higher highs, higher lows.

Why would the price do that?

It's only after the absorption of the supply. So did we have that? Okay, let's

go through this again.

Supply increase, some supply.

This looks more even as a demand bar.

So less supply.

Down momentum goes, the rate of acceleration to the downside goes down.

we don't have any more selling.

Selling is exhausted.

And then the last test.

on selling and we go nowhere, we are creating a higher low. So there is a

of behavior.

And then once we start seeing this, this is where we're saying, okay, the

volume is definitely coming and pushing the price up. So there is some demand

behind it. We are breaking the short term trend line as well, also acts as a

confirmation. So volume acts as a confirmation, price acts as a

Trend lines act as the confirmation.

Momentum acts as a confirmation that something different is going on.

And then you're thinking, okay, well, now that we're switching the bias to

bullish, would the rally behave in a bullish way?

Would it overcome the previous level of commitment?

Yes. If this is the case, probably sign of strength.

Backing up action should follow. We should have some kind of weakness.

If reaction develops in a more bearish way, then we would change the bias to

bearish at this point.

All right, well, good trade, good entry. Is price also creating an apex?

We could probably extract some apex, right? So something like this

into this spot right here.

If you've seen it like that.

Yes, probably.

Okay.

Anatomy of the trade.

I took Corey's work here.

So really quickly, it's kind of similar to everything what you guys were sending

me on the homework for the anatomy of the trade.

Again, something that we've discussed before.

And now we're just seeing how it materialized, right? So a lot of us had

feeling that, you know, this is it. It's done.

But, again, think about the character with which the price moves or the

structure. We're seeing a stop in action, buying climax.

Then we're going through this reaccumulation phase, suggest a move up.

It moves up.

Spends a lot of time here. Sometimes this is the strength in phase B.

And then it goes and creates a higher low.

How does it go down?

First move to the downside, second, third, fourth, fifth.

Okay, first, second, third, fourth,

and then fifth.

Okay, so we see how supply is diminishing as we're going through this

of going down to the higher low, stopping, and then starting to create

highs and higher highs locally.

And then on the last bar right here, and actually I was watching this talk on

that day, and I was like, this is it.

Because it brought some demand behind it, and then the bar...

Next bar has also a huge volume signature absorbing that remaining

off we go, and then obviously confirmation bar.

So when you look at the long -term price cycle, and this is what I was alluding

to, guys, it's actually in this long -term oversold condition, and that's why

looks so bearish by the characters, because to get into this oversold, there

should be some kind of selling that should happen.

in synchronicity way where, you know, effort is increasing and that pushes the

price down. But once it gets to this point, a lot of the institutions are

to see this as a value zone.

And the confirmation of their volume is going to be in this momentum signature

and in this type of volume.

It's that volume kickoff, momentum kickoff, structure kickoff of the low in

phase C.

Something, by the way, that we could, you know...

create the scan for or filter or code it.

You know, this seems to be kind of like a very easy scannable moment.

All right.

Well, thank you, Corey, for that.

Okay. So I said to you guys that we're going to continue today

with the bias because it looked like we needed.

a little bit more work on this.

So why don't we just, you know, concentrate on this, focus on this, and

going to go through as many exercises on the bias, you know, that we could do.

So here's your first chart.

I'm going to give you a minute. I'm not going to ask you right now what you

think of this.

I want you to really go through this, obviously a little bit faster than you

would have done this at home, but I want you to, like, in silence, think about

this. make some notes, go from column number one to column number 15.

That's going to be our point of reference.

And tell me, write it down, what is your bias?

So I'm going to give you like a minute or so.

Go ahead, guys.

All right, guys.

So what do you think?

Is this an accumulation or a distribution?

Maybe somebody wants to, you know, go through this with me. How about that?

before we go into the solution.

Dimitri is saying, first thought accumulation, but switch the

analyzing the last two swings.

Arvind is saying accumulation.

So we have 50 -50 so far.

Redistribution, Corey is saying.

Five more seconds.

Another distribution.

Okay.

So we have, out of people who submit the answers, we don't have a lot.

So it's okay. If we want to be a little bit tentative here, that's fine.

So we have...

three cases of the distribution and one case of an accumulation.

All right, any volunteers before I jump into this?

Arvind, do you wanna do that?

Do you wanna go through that together?

And we'll kind of go through the analysis together? What do you say?

Okay, let's do that.

Hi, Arvind. Hi, Arvind.

Hi, Roman. How are you?

I'm doing well.

I'm hearing a little bit of the echo on the background, so I don't know. I'm

probably on the speaker. Usually when I'm on the speaker, that goes into the

microphone and comes back to us. So if you could.

I am on the speaker. I don't know how to get out of it. I see. Okay. Right now,

it seems to be okay.

So you guys tell us, you know, if we're going to.

not have a good reception here.

Well, let's start first with the bias that precedes the trading range. What is

the bias that precedes the trading range?

It's the down bias all the way down to the yes there.

Okay. And then you get to the, okay, go ahead.

Let's recognize now the character with which the downtrend happens, right? So

look at the largest swing in the downtrend.

Notice the volume signature supply is increasing, right? So there is

institutional selling that we see here. That started probably

from this bar right here, kind of like a kickoff momentum bar.

Yes. Breaking out that upsloping structure, and then the whole downtrend

The way how they sell.

reminds us of this structure, right? So for instance, one,

two, and three, right? So increase of the supply, more supply,

less supply, right? So there we are

expecting after lessening of the supply, some kind of rally.

And that rally, we're probably expecting that's going to be better than what

we've seen before.

So therefore, we are expecting an automatic rally or a change of

Yes. So what's the bias as we start going in into the column seven and eight

here into the trading range? Is the bias still to the downside or to the upside?

I would say it's still to the downside.

It's still to the downside, right, guys? So we need to see, I mean, like if

we're at the selling climax, we're thinking, well,

it's a stopping action.

Does it give us a bias right away just because it's a stopping action?

Probably not.

We still would be thinking, what's the previous bias of the trend? It's to the

downside. And this bias needs to be confirmed or it needs to fail.

So that's what we are trying to do. Then the first rally is a good rally for us

to think, you know, in those terms. So let's look at the first rally, automatic

rally. Arvind, what can you say about this rally?

Do you see a lot of bullish characteristics?

I do see quite a bit of bullish bars here.

Yes.

And the first swing momentum is quite large.

Yeah, and it overcomes the intent of the, yes, right there.

Right there, yes.

So Arvind is going very methodically through everything that we want to

We want to notice what kind of momentum we have off the bottom.

Are there true buying? Is there institutional buying?

And we want to confirm that increase in the momentum signature.

with the increase in the volume signature.

So we want to see that increase in effort.

We want to see momentum increase and also, you know, increase in the price

movement. We want to have the largest rally here.

All of those characteristics are there.

So therefore, we know that there is some kind of institutional buying that is

happening.

What would be our bias at this point of time? We would be thinking, wow, we're

probably like 50 -50 here.

There is a shift into the bullish side because there is some buying here.

So what we could do is we're not trading the range in phase A.

We could just wait and observe what's going to happen next. Would the bullish

bias be confirmed on the next reaction?

Okay, well, let's do exactly that.

Arvind, when we look at the next reaction, would we say that the bullish

confirmed?

I would say yes.

Okay, why?

Well, if I look at that downswing and compare it to the downswing on the left,

it's a much shorter downswing.

Okay, are we talking about this downswing or let's say this big

I would say both of them.

Both of them. Okay, well, let's compare, right? So first, distance -wise,

right? We probably would be thinking that reaction number three.

Let me just be a little bit precise, 14 and then 29 .5 and 43.

So there is more distance that is covered by the reaction number three

reaction number two.

Reaction number two had been a selling climax, and it got us into this oversold

condition, suggested to rally.

So this reaction here, it still comes as a higher low.

So I would be thinking that as a high or low, first of all, suggestive of the

rally. Secondly, maybe it's suggestive also that more testing is going to come,

and we want to see that test, you know, to be kind of like in line with the

accumulation bias. Let's say if we're thinking here that the bias is up,

then we want to have the rally that's going to,

you know, come to this level.

maybe overcome, up thrust this level as well.

If the rally is gonna fail, that's gonna probably be

suggestive that the bullishness is going away.

And if we see some kind of bearish sign, then probably the redistributional bias

is gonna resume itself.

Well, we see that the rally is not that great.

Right. So this is probably a good example of the weak rally.

Why? Because look at the commitment. There is only one bar that commits to

upside in this upthrust manner.

So, Marvin, so what bias would we have after this rally?

What do you think?

I would say bearish.

Well, yeah, we would either have a bearish bias or we would say like this

very suspicious.

It looks like a weak hands rally. It doesn't commit above and so on and so

forth. And we could also say we're still in the bullish bias, but the next

reaction will tell us.

And Arvind, what happens on the next reaction?

The next reaction confirms that it's down bias

because it goes below.

It commits below the intention.

Okay. Yes.

Commit below, commit significantly, and then look through the whole thing,

how the supply signature increases.

Yes. Right? So we still, we were thinking like, is this a bearish

the rally?

And now looking at the reaction, this is such a sign of weakness.

then we definitely are thinking that, yes, we came back to the bearish bias

we had before.

Okay, well, could we confirm it on the next rally that this is bearish bias?

Arvind, what do you think?

Yes, we can confirm it on the next rally because it doesn't overcome the

intention, that intention.

Okay, so previous highs.

We could also construct it like this. So what do we see here on the downslope?

We have one commitment up, acts as an up thrust in the down channel,

and then comes back really quickly on the increased supply signature.

Now we have a very interesting point of excitement here because there is

momentum from buying, and then there is less buying.

So demand goes down into the up thrust, and then supply comes in again.

It's almost like we see the wave of selling, buying,

not buying, but price goes up, and then selling

again.

So what does it tell us? All this buying is probably just by weak hands.

It can't materialize this rally into a significant commitment to the upside and

also some supply steel.

Right.

So that confirms the down bias.

Confirms the down bias. Okay, great.

Arvind, any questions?

It was important for me to hear you go through this as well.

No, it's quite clear. I just took a look at it very quickly.

I saw the breakdown below the selling climax, and I thought maybe

that would be a shakeout.

but it did not. And yes, and I was drawing the slope, the down slope like

drew, but I could kind of see whether it was committing above or not, so yes.

Okay, well, let's look at the solution.

Okay, so here is the solution.

That was JCPenney, and we can go through the solution here.

A little bit later, you know, I want to do something else.

Arvind, here's the next one.

So I want you not to think about, don't even look at the whole chart.

I want you just to start analyzing it like we did with the previous chart and

just tell me what you see. And I'm not going to interfere. So I'm just going to

ask you these questions.

In columns number one and two, what kind of bias do we have?

It's a down bias.

Okay, down bias.

Okay, in column number three, what kind of bias do we have?

It's still a down bias.

Okay, so down. So let's kind of like ask you the question here really quickly,

why?

Because it did not overcome the intention of the yes right around there.

great. Okay, so.

Column number four?

Right through, it continues with the down bias theme, I would say.

Why? It's a trading range.

Yes,

from there, that is the automatic reaction.

And I would draw the selling

climax all the way down around 25.

Is this?

This is a substructure that you're going for.

Okay, so one structure, second structure.

So we're saying down bias, down bias, and then in column number four, down.

Is that correct?

Yes, it remains down.

Okay, number five?

Still remains down.

Why is that?

Because it's not overcoming any of the, sorry.

Any of the intentions.

Okay. Okay. So we're kind of intention.

That's a cute word here. Okay. And then six?

Six, I'm not sure, because at the end of five, that could be the C phase.

But I'll have to think about it a little bit more.

Okay.

All right. I think I know where we kind of stumble a little bit.

I think in this kind of like definition of the intention, right? So if we're

talking about the intention, what do we really mean by the intention that the

intention has been fulfilled or not?

We want to see a commitment in the direction of the current bias.

So, for instance, in the downtrend.

that commitment line will always be defined by the support level and how the

price goes through that support level, right? So this, this, this, this, this.

We are seeing that commitment.

Then we have come to an extreme oversold condition, right?

And then our next commitment is going to be above this line and above this

resistance, above this resistance, and then above this resistance.

So as we go up and commit to the upside and we come out of oversold condition

and the volume has increased so much, what do you think they have done here?

They have bought quite aggressively.

Yes.

So they bought in, and that is being shown to us in this rally and in those

commitments, you know, in those intentions being fulfilled.

So here I thought that this is where kind of like this mistake started a

bit.

You're talking about the commitment and intentions, but there were two that were

not mentioned, right? And obviously looking at the... Overall volume

is very important, right? So we have increase in the volume and then decrease

volume signature.

Okay, so from bullish bias, let's say that I would say number four

could be a bearish bias, right? We could be thinking this is a lower low.

And, you know, it goes below but quickly recovers.

And then the volume goes down as well, meaning that both supply goes down and

demand goes down.

But we definitely see some kind of volatility increase.

So I would be okay here, you know, thinking that the reaction was not that

aggressive in terms of the result or the character on the volume. It was

aggressive in the character of the price spread, but not necessarily, you know.

the way how it unfolded here.

The quick recovery was suggested for the rally.

Another failure, low or high.

This is where I would probably still contain this bearish bias.

And then look at how the price goes down. What can we say about the

with which the price moves? Let's say here and on this three reactions.

What do you think?

It looks like...

Smaller effort and larger result.

So there is some effort that comes in on the kickoff.

Yes.

And at the end, at the stop in action. So this acts as a climactic action. So

there is some demand behind this.

So we kind of see supply come somewhere here.

And then supply just goes down. And then demand comes.

So as they sell.

There is this grinding down action where there is no such

quick momentum to the downside.

It takes time.

It's only on the climactic action right here that there is acceleration, but

that's usually what would happen, you know, going into the climactic action.

Okay, so I would be thinking here that the character has changed.

with which the price moves down. So that could be bullish.

And then also look at the result.

We really have not committed lower than this low. There was an attempt, but this

looks more like a spring.

And the selling climax relative to this low is actually a higher low.

So the result of the downside has diminished on the more bullish character

which the reaction moved to the downside.

So we're thinking now bullish. Give us a confirmation.

What would act as a confirmation?

Well, this is where they come in and produce some buying.

And this buying, not like in the last bias game, it doesn't go down on a bar

like this.

Right. With the gap.

Right. But it actually stays here in the trading range and does not come to the

lower level. Throughout this trading range, we have diminished supply

characteristics. And again, This is a reaction that is going to spook weak

hands. Why?

Because the price goes down, but look at the character.

Supply diminishes, and only at the end, it produces some selling, some low

capitulation, but then both the price and the volume indicate that there is

demand that's coming in.

So you're kind of going from bearish to bullish to

bearish.

Yes,

I see it. Arvind, so intention, right? Right here. Yes. Was not necessarily

caught, right?

Yes, I did not see those lower intentions.

And out of the oversold condition with the big bell curve volume signature.

So that's going to tell you like... They are here. They are present. What do

they do?

Well, look at the price action. Oversold condition, lots of value.

Does the rally confirm that they were buyers?

Absolutely. So then bullish, volatility, and then the character changes.

And in this case, this was a bullish.

Yes, this was a Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

All right, Arvind.

I guess, you know, just the observations, right? So we need to still

the skill of observation.

If we're looking for intentions, how do we find those? And then also, Arvind,

for you, I would say a sense of the character, right? So whenever we look at

rally, whenever we look at the reaction, develop a sense of the character of the

reaction and the rally based on the spread.

based on the progression to the downside and based on how the volume signature

actually develops.

Right? Yes, very good. Okay, great. Well, thank you for stepping in. Thank

very much.

Thank you. I appreciate that.

All right. Some of the comments here.

I think on the previous chart.

Simon, could we confirm the failed bullishness early in column nine rally?

Is this on this chart or on the next one?

Yeah, here, right?

This one?

Could we confirm the failed bullishness earlier?

Yeah, we could. I kind of did not go into that type of the detail, but you

see even from this bar right here.

And actually just like even thinking that a more bullish scenario would be

overcoming the preliminary supply rally high in a more aggressive

way. So that probably was kind of like the first clue.

And then some supply, local supply starts to come in and then

And then there is a lot of volatility in this area. So I still would be staying.

with kind of like bullish, bearish to confirm, right?

So, and then the rally confirms that bearishness. So I would be heavily

going into this.

Probably my mistake would be in this trade, just thinking how I would analyze

and trade it, I would be thinking probably this way.

I would be thinking climactic, automatic, test, off -thrusting B.

testing B, and then this is C.

Please note, if I'm thinking this way, I'm still making money. Here is my point

of entry.

Some add -ons, maybe somewhere here and here especially, and probably would be

getting out the swing position here, definitely here in this area, because

shows that the rally is going to be taking place.

And then this would be another point of entry.

It would be a really good point of entry, even somewhere here earlier on

break of the up thrust.

Okay.

The commitment levels you've drawn, are these based on significant bars? No, I'm

basing those just on high lows.

These are the commitment levels.

Okay, so another comment by Simon. The reason why I look at the smaller rallies

is because I always try to assess the chart as if it were done in real time.

Well, you can do this, but your whole Wyckoff story will be created,

from all of the swings.

You have to see how the price behaves.

behaves prior to smaller rallies, smaller reactions. Okay.

What else do we have here?

Let me see.

I think that's it. Okay, great.

So we are at 450.

Okay, great.

Well, I thought that we're going to stay on the buys.

We didn't do one thing. We didn't do market charts. So before we go to the

exercise, let's do really quickly the market charts.

Okay, so for those of you who want to have a little

bit more of the fresher perspective, not once a week type

of analysis in the market, you could start following us on

Wyckoff Analysis Twitter.

From time to time, I tweet out my thoughts about the market. So like

I had a tweet in the evening when I looked at the market, and I said every

the supply gets to the market, it's being observed.

So therefore, we should be waiting for the time when supply becomes

synchronous with the result.

So far, we haven't had it.

We did have what looks like a

climactic bar, and then there were two bars that provided

some supply.

We still have yet to see what kind of resolution we're going to see. Like on

Russell today, we actually had a good attempt to go up, but it failed at the

end. And it looks like we are, like on the Dow, we already...

having a possible, you know, half reversal.

But again, as with everything, we have to wait and double check.

So this is where we are.

If supply is going to come and it's being observed again, then

that's the pattern that we're in, in this uptrend.

You know, we've talked about this spot right here.

Look at how bias game is played out here.

reaccumulation, reaccumulation, reaccumulation, reaccumulation.

Now there is some volatility that comes in, and that produces uncertainty.

That's a point of vulnerability right there.

It could be a reaction to phase C, but we yet have to kind of see and resolve

somehow. Where is the resolution of it? Okay, well, right here.

So then...

That's the point where we're going to say there is an absorption and that has

happened. I tweeted that and then the continuation is possible.

So why am I saying this? Well, because here we kind of have to look at the same

picture.

Definitely a character of the move is a little bit more aggressive. We would be

comparing this to this.

And we could see that there is more volatility most recently.

There is, you know, almost instant continuation there.

So it's an unfolding picture.

And we're just observers of what is going on.

And, you know, we are taking our trades according to that observation.

So this has been well documented, you know, the bullish bias until yesterday.

Last night I said that.

Oil is misbehaving. Why? Well, because it had to come in to 58 to maintain this

stride. This new stride should have been this.

And then it doesn't.

And it reverses. So that is suggestive of some kind of reaction to 5550. That

was a logical place because of the line, and it just came there. I actually

think that we could have...

more of the reaction here. I think that we could even go to 53 to undercut a

more significant low, which we thought was, you know, phase C. And that way,

we're going to have a much more complex structure here that is going to have its

own phase A, phase B, that still will indicate the strength, and then a higher

low, hopefully, in potential phase C.

So that could be the structure of this whole thing. And that would make sense

because there is a lot of, like there is a lot of, I'm sorry, phase A, phase B.

Those phases, you know, they take time. So phase C could take time as well.

Is this still a correct long -term bullish call? We'll have to see.

Short -term, I think that, you know, I'm kind of playing it.

okay, you know, calling all of this, you know, smaller reversals, but I don't

know if I have a desire to do, like, such a small, you know, small swing

trading.

Gold is interesting at this spot because we saw some

of the buying that came in here, and that was

suggested for the rally.

I think if we're going to overcome 1480, we're definitely going to have an

attempt to go to the resistance, the next resistance, and probably going to

encounter some resistance here around 1500.

So it's not like a very big trade, but this could be potentially a lower low

in this whole formation as we consolidate, let's say, to the right.

And then obviously more of the failure below this bar right here,

that would be more indicative of more selling. So we probably would have

like leg down to this area, 1400.

1400 actually would be a really interesting value for a lot of

Please note again how they are selling, right? So there is not a lot of

progression.

to the downside each time that the price commits to the downside.

So that's long -term bullish.

Even if we have another low, a low, let's say like into this, still the

progress could be very minimal. And yet throughout this whole process,

speculative hands are leaving the long -term bullish position and that supply

goes into strong hands.

Still some uncertainty ahead.

with a lot of you know macro fundamental stuff so gold could be attractive here

but not necessarily done with the short -term correction so we kind of have this

picture of where oil leads the market suggesting that we could have that short

-term reaction that we were waiting for the key is just to observe where

the supply is you know getting it done in terms of

expanding the reactions and if it can't do that

that means that demand comes in observes that supply and we could have higher

prices from here so it's the process that repeats itself over and over and

again and you know that's just at some point even boring you know just to go

through that all the time supply occurs being observed you know give us

something else

All right.

Okay, great.

So let's go to the next exercise.

Okay, so this is something that...

I've asked one of my team members to do for us.

I've asked Michael to quickly

send me two charts and show me

some kind of consolidation with the prior trend and for us as a

group to think about the bias for this particular chart.

And the reason why I wanted to do this is because I want to level the play

field.

I don't wanna know what bias this is.

I'm gonna go through this exercise as you guys go.

So we're gonna do this again together.

All right, so let's look at this. I thought that this was a better chart, so

let's start with this.

Okay. Well, what do you guys think?

I'm even not going to ask this question, I guess.

Volunteers, somebody wants to step in to go through this with me?

I mean, I don't know the end result of this.

I don't know the bias here.

Simon, how are you doing?

Very well, thank you, Roman. How are you?

Yeah, I'm doing well. How's the weather in Sydney?

It's a bit cloudy today, which is probably refreshing after yesterday's

wave. Too much sun, right? So it's refreshing to have clouds, okay.

Yeah, basically.

That's great. I'm really envious. All right, Simon. Well, how would we look at

this chart? Where would we start? Obviously, from the left to the right.

So what's the definition on the first two bars?

Looks like there's high momentum there.

I'm sorry, say again?

There's high momentum there.

I can't hear you, Simon, for some reason.

Maybe closer to the microphone?

Hello? Yeah, yeah.

Is that better?

Yes, that's better. Okay,

yeah. Okay, I say high momentum there. Okay,

I'm still not hearing.

Some of it.

Simon, I don't know. Do you guys have any audio troubles?

Maybe that's just on my end. Let me just correct it.

Okay, go ahead, Simon.

Hello? Yes.

I can hear you.

Great.

So I see high momentum rally.

It seems to be that F1 itself

is in sync.

Yeah, the sound kind of fades away, Simon. So I can't hear, like I hear the

beginning of the sentence and then it just kind of goes away.

I don't know, maybe it's the microphone that goes away or could we try this

again? And I see this from the comments that it's the same for, you know, for

others. Okay.

Maybe another volunteer maybe opens this.

Much better. When you speak like this, much better. Like I can hear everything.

Oh, okay then.

Yeah.

Okay, so the first two bars I see that are high momentum and the effort sort of

also is in synchronous with that effort and result.

Bullish or bearish?

Bullish. Bullish. Okay, so we're coming in with the bullish bars.

Okay. Next reaction, bullish or bearish?

That's bearish. The reason for that is because I see lower highs being created

and lower lows also being created.

Okay, so maybe a local range, but, I mean, looking at this structure, right,

seems like we are in a structure somewhere here.

We are not making a lower low per se, right? We are trying to make it an

intraday.

So this reaction within the context of the previous rally probably is not that

threatening.

Right. So when you're referring to, and I know this is what Adam was referring

to previously about intent, so you're always referring to the previous swing

high or swing low, and that's your reference point to see whether or not

something is either overcome or not.

Okay. So then let's rephrase this.

in such ways so that we would see different intent in different

right? So what is the intent, let's say, short term here? The intent is to

commit to the downside, which it does, right? The price does that.

What is the short term intent?

let's say here, to commit to the upside, stay above, test, and then continue. It

fails, suggesting continuation.

What is the intent here?

To commit below this support level.

It does so, and then the next intent is going to be somewhere here,

satisfactory, that fails the downtrend and favors the continuation to the

upside. Having said this,

This is one reaction, and within the context of, let's say, previous rally,

this is what was given to us, this is below a low, and this is an attempt to

commit below. Does the price commit below?

No, it doesn't. No, it doesn't. So that's a bullish non -commitment here.

And then when the price goes down, what's the character of the reaction?

Bullish or bearish?

It's bullish.

It's bullish. Why is it bullish?

Because we come off that swing low and we progress upwards.

Okay, but what if we don't see what happens here? Why is it bullish?

Because on that swing low, we see a demand tail on that down bar.

Swing low. And the next bar.

Yep. And then the next bar, we also see an up bar. It's also got a demand tail

as well.

I see. Simon, how about this? I'm going to say up to this bar right here.

Why would we say that the reaction is bullish?

And that's what I'm trying to do here. Like if I'm going to give you these

that's probably going to be a little bit easier or sometimes even misleading,

right? If I give you this bar right here, this could be very misleading.

Simon, how about this?

The rally was extremely bullish, right?

And then they were not buying anymore, but they were not aggressively selling.

There was some profit taken, but the price was holding on.

One time they capitulated, did not produce a lot of volume, and then that

capitulation led to the higher low initially.

the price tried to rally some supply came in and that produced a continuation

the downside which only marginally committed to the downside and on the

time frame it did not make this commitment so the way how the price

not moving a lot bullish some selling This is occasional selling, right? So

not a lot of selling and then capitulation here. So we only have two

true selling and then everything else is kind of like mediocre.

It kind of stays in the same place.

If we would take those two bars out, just visualize this, like taking this

away and then this bar away, how would this structure look like?

We would just have a trading range, right? We would just have this attempt

up.

and then a rally.

That's how it would look. These two bars only define the more of the, you know,

sloping down type of the reaction.

So the character of this reaction is actually bullish.

Okay, well then next rally happens.

Does it confirm the bullishness of the reaction and of the rally?

Yes, it does because it commits above the previous swing high.

Okay, commitment above.

Now, we're seeing commitment with a lot of progressive closes to the upside.

What about the effort? Does the effort confirm this commitment?

Yes, it does. It's both got increase in effort for June and also mid -June

rally. Okay, yes. So there is definitely that increase in the volume signature

that we observe.

We are thinking that...

They are definitely buying off the low here. So they bought in somewhere here.

They're buying here.

So the bias is still to the upside.

The majority of buying has been done up to this bar.

So we are kind of looking that the last momentum swing was here.

If there's going to be a reaction, probably we're going to be in this value

somewhere here.

Reaction happens very aggressively.

Do we change the bias here at this point?

I think from a short -term, I would say yes, but if we're looking at the longer

-term picture, I would say no.

Yeah, if we're looking at the long -term picture here, we're saying, okay, well,

we saw how volume has stopped buying, although there is some buying here as

well.

up thrust commitment and then the reaction goes to about one half of this

trading range higher low a lot of effort that comes in but

it's not necessarily like a very extreme effort like we've seen here or maybe

even in this area and higher low is suggestive that with the increase of the

supply we're going to have a retest but we're probably still in this

reaccumulation bias to be

confirmed or fail.

Do we fail on the next reaction?

No, we don't. No, we don't.

Does the volume signature confirm that there is less saline?

Yes. Yes. So now we could expect some kind of rally because still

a very volatile picture, we need absorption.

Where is the absorption?

of all of the supply that comes on these two reactions?

It looks like the absorption occurs vertically on that first reaction

on that swing low with that demand tail.

Okay. Sorry, the previous one.

Previous reaction.

Previous reaction, somewhere here?

Yeah, that one there.

And then it sort of looks like a weak rally upwards, and then the second

reaction occurs, and it looks like it would be, yes, where you've got your

market previously. And you can think about, like, the value zone. Where are

buying? So this is the buy, and you want to visualize that. And then you're

thinking, okay, if the volume signature increases here, this could be all a

value buy right here you know with these bars and again as the price goes down

there is some value here so they're going to buy and then look at what

next this area right here is also an area of absorption so they've absorbed

price here this is the first value zone kind of like this okay

second value zone and then After the feather, which is the absorption into

resistance, we're going to have a momentum increase. We do this bar.

Distribution, and then the most interesting thing happens, right? So

try to decipher that.

What happens after this, Simon?

Sorry, Ramana?

Just a quick question.

Going back to that first deep reaction in July, June, July. Yeah, that one.

So with regard to that, that sort of price behavior sort of spooks me because

the reason why I sort of start to now take a down bias is.

There's high momentum, there's large downspread, wide downspread bars.

And so, you know, I would start to go, oh, okay, that's when prices are

becoming, you know, unfavourable. And at what point would I, and this goes

back to what you were saying before, if I've got that analysis incorrect, at

what point would I be assured that that analysis is incorrect and it's actually,

you know, the...

It's more bullish.

So yeah, so what's the process here? Where would we change that bias?

So this is how I would be thinking. This looks like either a minus sign of

strength or looks like a major sign of strength.

We just don't have enough data going into this.

So what would we be expecting after this?

Either some kind of reaction.

to support and then this will become a minus sign of strength or I'm gonna have

a backing up action. A backing up action is gonna start with the change of

character that's gonna have an increase of the supply and it's also gonna be

accompanied by the first automatic reaction and the key here

is just for this automatic reaction to have some kind of recovery.

out of the low and this low should not be very low and we don't have that lower

over the low we come to one half of the structure recovery you know happens

almost instantly in a spring -like manner uh the price recovers back to the

um so that would be my thinking but let's just say that we said this is too

volatility and then our bias here is bearish so then How would we be

or denying this bias?

Okay,

the rally comes, does not commit to the upside.

We're thinking this is a weak rally here.

We're going to have another attempt to retest.

What kind of retest do we have?

We have the low that does not commit on the close, and then it recovers in the

same way to the upside. But the recovery has different characteristics.

this momentum character is much better than the previous one.

And of course it would be. Why? Because supply here is more than at this spot.

So whenever supply is less, the price will move easier and will create that

momentum.

So at this point of time, I would be thinking bullish if I was thinking

here.

Right. Okay. Wonderful.

okay so then we are going in into this structure we're still having a bullish

bias i think somewhere here we're going to recognize that we're going to have

some kind of reaction that's a failure and then as we go into this reaction

this big reaction then we are thinking what what bias do we have here

long time i still say this as bullish

Okay, so why is that?

Because we're making a higher low.

Okay.

What else would tell us that long -term we're still bullish here?

We don't see a large increase in volume. I mean, we do see an increase in

volume, but not a large one compared to the previous.

Yeah, so let's kind of deconstruct the selling here a little bit.

Where does it come?

On these breakout bars.

This is a very natural spot for the supply to come because this is a lot of

profit taken after this bar.

Institutions definitely would sell into that.

By the way, I hear a lot of chatter about, you know, on the institutional

that, all right, Apple has extended too much.

I'd rather be in something else than in this extension.

So this is kind of like a similar situation.

Big advance, quick advance from, let's say, 72

into the high

above hundreds.

And what are they going to do here?

That's 50 % in a month.

And that's the character of the stock. So we are looking at some kind of

momentum flyer here. We're looking at some stock that probably has been a

darling, has some kind of momentum characteristics, and

they are probably getting in and getting out pretty fast out of this stock.

Okay, but long -term, yes, creates a high or low relative to the previous

support area.

We have two support areas.

So that suggests that's still long -term bullish. Would we find a short -term

bullish scenario here to confirm?

That's still for us to decide. So let's just say it like this, long -term

bullish, short -term still I would say bearish. Why bearish? Well, there is a

lot of supply that's coming in and it produces result to the downside.

Result to the downside is increasing at this point.

Effort to the downside is increasing, and we would be thinking that this is a

change of character.

Change of character could lead either into the trading range or into some kind

of reaction with the secondary test to

the upside, and then failure that leads into a downtrend,

right? So we are talking about this scenario, right?

so something like this so that's what we're looking at here so we need to

basically go in here and from the short -term picture to decide you know what is

it that we're seeing are we seeing here elements of bullishness that short -term

would confirm the long -term picture or are we seeing here a possible you know

continuation to the downside so let's look at this simon oh how would we

approach this

Yeah, this one is sort of a bit of a tricky one for me because I sort of see

higher highs being created and then also lower lows.

So it's sort of like it's expanding out like a bit of like a funnel type thing.

So, yeah, this one was really good.

We could have.

That's the worst pattern. I hate this pattern. It's the diamond formation, you

know, expanding triangle.

So for those of you who are trading breakouts, you definitely could, you

resonate with this because your breakout strategy will fail here multiple times.

Okay, well, regardless of this, why don't we just kind of like look at

Swing up, swing down, and compare those.

Or swing down to the swing down.

Swing up to the swing up.

Okay. All right, so I'll look at the swing downs.

Let me identify those for you.

Cool.

Go ahead.

Okay, so after the first reaction, which is the biggest one

that we've seen to date,

We have the subsequent reactions, and they seem to be getting larger.

So although price is making higher highs, I guess the price

advancement is being negated by the larger reactions to the downside.

Okay, well, let's concentrate on the – you said let's concentrate on the

reactions only, right? So don't think about the rallies yet.

Think about only the reactions.

Would you agree that reaction number one has a lot of supply, a lot of selling

behind it?

Yes, I agree, because of the supply tails and also there's some gaps down as

well. Okay, and the volume signature itself, right? We're seeing how that

initial breakout supply comes in. There's a lot of selling.

What about the second reaction? How does this compare to?

reaction number one the second reaction isn't as deep um but there's still

elements of um of supply but it doesn't seem to be as much and there's also a

few demand tails as well and uh the overall the volume is a little bit less

probably only three quarters of the first reaction so not as dangerous as

reaction number one and therefore from here we're going to have

A suggestion when supply is becoming less, when selling becomes less,

for the rally.

Okay, what about reaction number three compared to the reaction number one and

number two?

Well, reaction number three doesn't seem as threatening as number two or number

one because it seems to be that price sort of moves in a bit of a horizontal

little mini trading range before we get that long.

widespread down bar but it's not on a lot of volume yeah if you exactly look

the volume signature so would we say that supply is still exhausted at this

point you know from a previous reaction from reaction number two

I mean like relative to one relative to two and then three

it looks like that supply signature does this

Right? Yeah.

So, and then also look at this bar, very interesting bar. If we would just be

looking at the line, which is the closest, right?

Only closest.

This is the closest, this is the closest. We would not even see this.

I mean, obviously, it's good that we're seeing this, but at the end of the day,

what kind of progression to the downside did we make?

There was not a lot. So I think it's a really good observation here that supply

generally goes down, and then on the third reaction, supply goes down even

suggestive of the rally again, and maybe even better than the rally after

reaction number two.

Okay, so we're still seeing some diminished supply that suggests some

bullishness maybe?

Yeah. Okay, then our last test here on the

chart happens with a lot of supply coming in.

We've seen this everywhere.

Look at all of that. This is all supply that's coming in. It comes in at the

point where we had some selling before.

So what happens next is going to be kind of, because

this looks like a very aggressive attempt, aggressive

rally to overcome all of this bearishness.

And then supply comes at the point where it was sold before. So we need to

see what kind of result we're going to see on this increased supply signature.

What kind of result do we have, Simon?

So I see that the result of the price only comes down to about halfway of the

previous rally.

So that aggressive rally that you're referring to, price only comes back down

about halfway, and that's on a lot more supply as well.

I'm kind of lost here. So let's say this is one, this is two, three, four,

five. What are we talking about?

Sorry, I was taking that midpoint as part of the reaction as well between one

and two.

We're talking about this supply. So we want to establish what kind of result

does this supply bring?

Yep.

Right. So and we are saying what result, what kind of result does the supplier

bring?

It's a negative result. So price ends up falling. So after supply merges, we get

a little bit of a rally on falling volume.

And then price then just starts to decrease very quickly, picks up

decreases quickly.

OK, well, let's look at the result. Right. So you're describing the.

character with which the price moves. The result would be a commitment below a

specific level, right? So which level is this? Probably 80, the previous low.

Did we commit below?

No, we didn't. Okay, so downward result is decreasing.

As we come to the support level, we have this bar right here. Is there demand

behind this bar?

It looks like there's supply, according to that supply table.

But because there's so much volume. Hold on, we're looking at the same bar.

We're looking at this bar right here, right?

Oh, yes. Sorry. Yes, there is demand.

Yes, there is demand.

So it's a capitulation bar.

It's just on a smaller level, it's the bar like this.

They are actually analog bars.

Well, a combination of three bars.

is the analog for one bar right here. It's basically the same action.

But we want to define the level of demand also that comes in.

So obviously, this demand right here stops the price

from committing below 80, which tells us that somebody is actually coming in and

producing a buy.

stops it, and then the price moves on a smaller volume signature

much easier to the upside, right? I kind of see in there.

So it's almost like supply has been, you know, observed or tried to be observed,

and the rally should happen.

Okay, well, we've talked about different reactions, right? So we've talked about

reaction number one.

Reaction number two. Reaction number three.

Then this was four, five, and six.

Four, this is where supply has increased. This is the final test.

What does it produce?

Dimension supply characteristics.

Supply decreasing. Supply decreasing even more while the price is making

no progress to the downside and then a higher low.

Bullish reversal bar, bullish continuation bar.

What are we thinking, Simon?

That price looks bullish.

Yes. The only problem here with this action is this whole area, this whole

volatility.

Right? So we're kind of concerned about that.

At the same time, there are a lot of bullishness in the story prior to that,

right? So we have a lot of momentum and willingness to sell, selling, leading

nowhere, absorption, and then, you know, capitulation on the way up

by short sellers.

And then, you know, because it advanced too quick.

you know, it had to be taken profits in by different institutions. They do, that

produces this whole volatility pattern could be also market related in general,

but we've seen that the volume signature has increased in this area in general.

There are multiple attempts to go down and the last attempt to go down kind of

does not have a lot of continuation here.

There is emergence of the momentum to the upside that started with this bar

right here in phase b and even this one right here so our tactic here would

be to think that this is a bullish bias we probably would be entering on this

day and our stop loss would be somewhere here if this trade does not work out so

be it um but you know this is how we would come to this point through this

story Again, we would be concerned about the volatility, but, you know, let's

just see where we are. Michael, could you reveal the name of the stock,

And I'll go and I'll do the chart.

View.

Okay.

So we were.

Michael, and thank you.

Last bar was not necessary.

I was kind of thinking when I saw the chart, that gives a little bit of a

but fair.

I probably would be less inclined to include it, but still.

The key was in the analysis that we've done.

since this moment right here. So we saw some kind of buying behind it, not

selling. We didn't know what the structure was here. It did not matter.

This was kind of like a big clue.

Rally was confirming.

Non -commitment to the downside was confirming on volatility.

Feather was confirming.

And then just overbought conditions suggestive that we're gonna have a

I thought Simon's comment about the high -low was the key.

Was the key.

So, you know, for the long -term bias.

And then this long -term, I'm sorry, short -term was interesting because of

volatility. So that was the challenge. How do we kind of like, you know, look

that volatility and think about the long -term bullish scenario?

So I think it was all in the structure here.

And then obviously, you know, like this reversal here, you know, bar by bar, it

was more telling. Michael, yeah, please don't worry. You did exactly what I've

asked you to, you know, somewhere in the middle of the range. So that was

perfect.

Yeah. And, you know, that's how we kind of operate this, right?

That's how we go through the bias.

Now, I'm going to say this, that not every time.

the bias will be deciphered like this.

It might seem like, okay, well, that was easy.

There are some other much more difficult charts, and those charts we have to

post -analyze after our mistakes, and I do that too. I'm always interested in

the trade that fails, in the chart that fails. I want to understand what was

kind of like a blind spot right there.

But the process is going to be the same. From the left to the right, each rally,

each reaction has to confirm the current bias or deny that bias.

And then looking at how the bias changes within the structure, you take,

based on the structural spots, on the timing, a position at the specific spot.

We said that we would take it here. How would we trade it? Sign of strength,

backing up action.

and we would be moving the stop loss probably on the weekly significant bar

something like that and on the weekly significant bar it would look

like this point of entry and we are moving the stop loss like this

something like this

this this this

And then somewhere here, just on that weekly, we would be up, right? So 160,

90. So that would be our trade.

All right. Well, Simon, thank you so much.

Thanks, Roman.

Sorry, Roman. Just one more quick question, please. Back on the chart that

had, the one that we're going through.

I think in December.

Yes, in December, that swing high, you said that was the last test.

Why is it the last test, and when is it confirmed as successful or unsuccessful?

No, the previous one in December. Oh, the previous one in December, okay.

The swing high.

Yeah, we probably refer to the last test here as probably the last test in

the series of tests in the trillion rate trade here.

We still wouldn't know until obviously a more kind of like conclusive

resolution to the upside.

But I would say that the last test

on this chart is probably this.

What would be the rationale here for this last test?

I think it's the supply that comes in. So before that, we have that.

Supply increases, supply decreases, supply decreases again, and then supply

increases. So it's almost like the last attempt for the sellers that came in

here and then reemerged again here.

You kind of see their bets. They're betting at the same price into 100.

So this would be the last true test.

After this supply, if this supply has been observed, then that's it. It's

bullish. If this supply produces damage, then we're probably in the

redistribution. So this reaction was really important and specifically how it

recovered here. And we're seeing what? We're seeing diminished selling and

seeing inability to commit to the downside, which suggests that selling is

exhausted. And most likely somewhere here, we're going to, like, let's look

100, let's say from 92 to 102.

This is where we might have some kind of...

Attempt to stop.

What do we have?

92, I said, and 100.

There is nothing here, really, that produces that much stop in action.

So that suggests that supply has been absorbed and we're going to have a

continuation. So there are clues as the price goes through that level as well.

Right. And coming back to how I say that I tend to...

assess the charts in real time um going back to that um other chart that you had

up that bill gone through um when we see that uh uh swing high and all

that supply coming in in december and then as we progress through in real time

at what point would we go okay this uh supply is not damaging would we have to

wait for a swing low to occur first before yeah So here is that emergence of

supply and we see how supply goes down. Like there is no selling after this.

And there is nothing on this chart that I see. Let me just kind of see maybe

quickly on this second chart right here.

We kind of see this as a concept.

Increase of volume and increase of the supply as selling progresses, right? So

we don't have it.

on that swing to the downside.

We have the increase of the supply, and then we have a decrease in the supply

signature. This last bar, again, this is the bar that contains a lot of demand

behind it.

Right. Okay. And this was successful because it didn't cause any structural

damage. No. Yes.

Well, I mean, yes, it did not cause any damage.

No commitment to the downside on diminished supply characteristics

selling is exhausted, and if we're seeing a good rebuttal, then that would

suggestive of supply has been observed, and now we are potentially rallying

above the previous highs.

That last test shows even more absorption, and now it cannot even go to

stops at 82 .5, so bullish.

Right, and the confirmation of a failed test would be is if price progressed

through the $80 mark towards the downside.

Yeah, so for instance, we would have maybe like in a buyer's game,

we would have something like this, where the price

progresses to the downside, has that increase of the supply, and then tries

rally back into the trading range.

And we don't have, we're stopping right at the support level here.

And that support level is higher than the previous support level. So long

bullish. I also, I mean, like sometimes you look at the chart and it's not like,

guys, I don't have the first subjective bias as to what this is.

And with this chart, to me, it spoke instantly.

here on this rally.

So it told me only one thing.

This is the leader and this is the momentum stock and this shows a

major sign of strength before the next move up.

Why? Because this is a lot of aggression and a lot of buying. So think about who

bought in here. If they would be selling, the price probably would tank

this low and it doesn't.

So this is an element of future outperformance.

And it did, right? So we probably have all of this relative strength as the

price goes up, which indeed we do right here. So all of that was an

outperformance. And this rally defined that outperformance for us.

All right. Well, Simon, good job.

Some thoughts.

Thanks, Ramon.

So I would say that look at the larger structure.

So this is one thing that I've noticed that you're kind of doing. There is a

little bit of the concentration on the shorter term swings, which we have to

look through. Right. Absolutely. But we also have to come back to the long term

structure and put all of those smallest substructures into the much larger

picture.

And then there was some kind of hesitation here, you know, on

the rallies and the reactions. I would say start your analysis with reaction to

reaction first because that will show you the supply.

And then rally to the rally.

Then look at the overall structure and look at the long -term picture,

like that.

Great. Thank you, Ramon.

Okay. Absolutely. Simon, thank you so much.

All right, guys. Well, with that, this is the end of the session. Sorry for

going a little bit over.

I really wanted to bring this point home.

I did not know the bias of this chart.

Michael can attest to this. Michael is attending this class, and he's been

attending many practicum classes.

And he is the one who constructed this exercise. You could see this is like

how the slide has been done. This is not prepared for this class.

Why were we successful in the definition of this bias?

We have a process.

We are going from left to the right. We are comparing a swing to a swing and

we are changing the bias based on the character.

based on the intention, based on the effort and the result behind those

And the story could change.

If we are incorrect on the story at any point of time, it is so easy to come

back to that story because the market is the one who's going to show you the

correct way.

We are listening to the market. We're not listening to anyone else.

to look at the chart, and we want to understand this story, and we want to

that process of going through that bias, and then methodically identifying

correct things.

What I'm also noticing, guys, and this is something that I'm going to put on

you, and this is where we're going to end the session.

In a lot of cases, observations are made incorrectly.

I'm sorry to say this, but there is more practice that is required.

So we need to practice again and again and again and again. And if you're tired

of practice, please do me a favor. Go to Amazon and buy a book, which is called

Zen and the Art of Archery.

One of my favorite books on Zen.

And there, the...

The student goes through the training with the teacher,

who for the first year only teaches him how to breathe correctly, not even to

hold an arrow, and it takes a lot of time.

So practice, practice more, practice here, do every

homework.

Be engaged with each exercise.

Find your blind spots.

This is why we're having those Q &As. This is why we're going through the bias

game and so on and so forth.

All right, guys.

Homework, bias game, and trade desk.

So we're still looking at those two things.

Good session. Hopefully a lot of questions were addressed.

And I hope that you guys are feeling better.

All right, guys.

Until next week or until tomorrow in WMD, talk to you then. Thank you.