Original subtitles

Hello, everyone. Today is September 10th, and this is our first session of

Wyckoff Trigion Practicum course.

This session is open for everyone, so we have two groups of people. We have

students who already signed up, so I'm looking forward to spending the whole

semester with you guys. We have a lot of material to go through. We have a lot

of exercises to go through. I see that a lot of you have signed up again for the

practicum. That pleases me a lot because the It tells me that whatever we're

doing, we're doing it in the correct way, and education that we provide is

valuable. So thank you for coming back.

For those of you who are new, there is a second group here for this

presentation. This is an open door, so welcome guests.

And obviously, we would like you to become a part of our class.

Now, there is a catch here.

usually I do not do the open doors for the Wyckoff Practicum. And the

reason why is because Wyckoff Practicum has a prerequisite, Wyckoff Trading

Course. Wyckoff Trading Course is a foundational course, and then students

graduate to the Practicum. And in Practicum, we discuss intermediate to

concepts, and we practice those.

But I kind of wanted to...

wanted to open up this class so that you guys would see what exactly do we do?

What is it that you want to strive for in your education with us through the

first Wyckoff Trading Course?

So this is a preview for those of you who are guests.

Obviously, if you want to participate in this particular class, you have to make

sure that you have the prerequisite, the Wyckoff Trading Course, and then you

can sign up.

If you have any other questions, contact me or Nancy at WyckoffAssociates at

gmail .com.

We will be glad to address any of your questions. We're going to have 15

sessions.

The alumni rate is $598 over the $898

for the whole course. So for those of you who are alumni and you're still

thinking, this is a good price for 15 sessions.

So I would be really happy to see a lot of alumni in this course.

The next two sessions in September is going to be on the 17th and the 24th at

the regular 3 to 530 Pacific. As usual, I'm expecting all of the homeworks to

come only in one file, if possible, PowerPoint or PDF.

And obviously, just mention your name, the course.

and in the title just put the name of the course.

All of our sessions are interactive, as you guys know, so therefore for those of

you who would like to interact with me to go through the exercises to analyze

and kind of to be a little bit in a hot seat, and usually by this time you guys

are more relaxed, you know, we are not really...

concerned about making the mistakes what we want to do is we want to make the

mistakes and we want to analyze why we made a mistake and then correct it so

mistakes are really welcome here so you know it's kind of like a very uh relaxed

atmosphere that we have in this class

So remember just to have a built -in microphone because I will talk to you.

All of the recordings and slides from this session will only be available to

paid students.

That's usually how it is. You guys will receive the access information and

instructions on how to get to those recordings and slides I think tonight,

tomorrow, tonight.

We'll do that.

All right, sounds great. Let's go.

As usual, All of our classes are for educational purposes only, even though

showing you my traits, and I will be showing a lot of my traits throughout

semester. We will be talking about a lot of actual examples in this semester.

Those are still for educational purposes as well.

Obviously, stating this with the idea that everyone has their own trading

and however I trade and whatever I show to you guys, that's not necessarily the

best trading for you, so you kind of have to know this, and I'm also saying

this is only for educational purposes.

What are we going to study? So this is important, especially for those of you

who signed up.

I've been diligently...

working on this curriculum for the last, you know, five, six years or so.

And it's always expanding and it's always kind of go into the depth of the

material. And practicum is a very special class because it's the

and the advanced students and the graduates of the WTC course. So we speak

same language.

we understand and we understand the same concepts it's easier for us to

communicate rather than when you sign up for wtc course so therefore it's easier

for us to um have a much more in -depth discussions on the subjects so with all

of our 15 sessions what are we going to go through well obviously all of the

knowledge that we uh acquired in the Wyckoff trading course. We want to

understand how to apply it and how to apply it consistently and profitably. So

this is going to be a main focus.

We're going to do this through the drills and exercises.

Therefore, a practicum. We are practicing and we are very deliberate

practicing our knowledge.

We're going to have a lot of concentration on bias and timing. So we

recognize the bias as the price steal.

in the trading range.

And then we want to understand and identify the timing as to when the price

going to leave.

And both are very challenging.

We're going to add one more to that. We're going to talk about the character

with which the price should move.

And this is also a very advanced concept.

It's important for us to understand how the price is going to move because we

could be thinking about specific strategies and exploiting the most

strategies, extracting the most potentially, you know, the most amount

of money.

So that's what we will concentrate on.

Those are going to be our fundamental points of focus.

But then the next segment is extremely important, trading tactics and

management.

We spend a lot of time in the Wyckoff Trading course on the analysis itself,

rightfully so.

Whenever people come to me and they say, well, I want to

concentrate on developing my intuition in trading, and I understand

the idea, and I've been there when I was a beginner, and I also want to develop

that intuition when I was a beginner.

My answer now, after over two decades of trading and now over

almost a decade of teaching, is that forget about the intuition.

Concentrate on knowledge first. Then concentrate on skill.

And then concentrate on everything else, like mental execution.

Why am I saying this?

Because time and time again, when I see that people try to tend...

attend to their mental landscape or how they mentally execute the trade.

In a lot of cases, the mistakes come actually from the analysis itself.

So in other words, they are not fully ready to be consistent with their

analysis.

And they go and they are executing, and on the top of the bad analysis, they

have bad execution mistakes and then bad mental mistakes.

So therefore, concentrate on knowledge first, then concentrate on skill, and

then concentrate on your mental practices.

So what are the trade management or execution points that we're going to

here?

Different price structural scenarios, those we started discussing in the WTC

course, and we're going to continue heavily residing in that space.

We're going to be talking and developing different bullish bearish scenarios, as

I've told you in the WTC course. It's important to develop those.

Why? Because mentally we have to be able to switch the bias

if we see any signs of the confirmation or a failure.

And it's easier for us to develop the scenarios and then follow them rather

be surprised by how the market behaves.

Trade management. Well, this is also very crucial. We want to understand

we are getting into the position, where we are putting the stop losses, how do

we move the stop losses, where do we exit, how do we scale in, how do we

out. Those are extremely important points for us.

Risk management. I started talking about this.

in the last semester on kind of like very rudimentary level.

And I think that this material is going to start developing more and more. We

want to understand what's the risk proposition that we are taking. We want

understand the risk per portfolio.

We want to understand the risk that is correlation risk to the assets and

instruments that you do have in your portfolio.

We want to understand how in the campaign we could, you know,

mitigate the risk if we have a long -term position.

And we also want to understand the risk that is related to the structure itself.

So in this material, obviously, as I said, we will be developing more and

Filtering trade candidates, well, filtering is always a big deal, so we

bunch of exercises that we're going to go through.

and filtering, and that's gonna be it.

And then advanced Wycoff analysis.

So this is just kind of a continuation of the WTC. This is one layer down,

one layer deeper.

We're gonna talk about different behaviors by different market

gonna introduce today just a couple of ideas, you know, actually from WTC.

We're gonna talk about the volume signature.

We're going to spend a lot of time on trends and recognizing where we are in

trend structurally, where we are in the trend on the relative performance and so

on and so forth.

We're also going to look at some historical examples. I'm going to bring

of the analogs, well, hopefully.

And then we'll also use Morgan.

TA tools, technical analysis tools, in conjunction with Wyckoff logic and

Wyckoff structural analysis.

And that will help us out tremendously to visualize some of the concepts.

So we have a very busy agenda for the practicum, and I'm really excited to

this course.

Practicum is always my favorite course because...

of the conversations that we do have here.

So hopefully for those of you who are guests today or you're just watching the

video, you guys will get a good sense as to, you know, what to strive for, what

to educate yourself towards, and what do we do, you know, at wycofanalytics .com

here, what kind of education we provide, you know, in order for us, you know, to

be better traders.

All right.

For those of you who are interested now in the practicum, but you haven't taken

the WTC course, the Wyckoff Trading course, here's the curriculum. And I'm

going to go through this. I just want you to stop the video, you know, and

of like go through this yourself.

But the main things here is that it's all about analysis.

So we're concentrating on analytical filters.

We're concentrating on the market structural analysis.

on the analysis of the volume and price and relative and comparative analysis.

And in those different areas, we have a lot of sub -segments, whether in the

structural analysis, it's change of character, change of the structural

environment, work of advance, work of phases.

Under the price and volume analysis, the main theme is going to be about effort

and the result.

We will discuss a lot of this here.

In the practicum, this is one of the cornerstones of our analysis.

We will talk in WGC about the bar -by -bar analysis, VSA, swing -by -swing

analysis, volume patterns in different phases, historical analogs, and then on

the relative comparative analysis, we'll do a lot of filtering and scanning and

some basic knowledge understanding of how we look at those.

All right.

So for those of you who are interested to sign up for the WTC, sign up today.

You will get free WMD sessions.

So that's what I would suggest to you.

All right, homework.

For those of you who are already students in this class or for those of

will be students in this class, I want you to right away look at the homework

and start doing it. Do not wait until the last moment.

I want you maybe to come back to your homework and thoughtfully to go through

this again.

There's going to be a couple of not necessarily mandatory assignments that I

want you to do, but I'm assuming that you guys are going to be a little bit

active in this class.

Preferably, I would love you to do these assignments.

Our first assignment is very easy. We're gonna have a conversation in the next

class about the practices. How do we practice trading?

And for those of you who are gonna

say that practicing trading does not have a really good merit,

would highly disagree with that.

And I hear that from time to time from students that come to us.

I truly believe in practice. I think a lot of you professionals there in your

own fields, you believe in practice as well. It's because repetition makes it

perfect. And then we will talk about what kind of repetition we want to make.

I'm actually...

incorporating into my daily routine my own practices where I'm just basically

not answering emails, not picking up the phone, not looking at my trading at

all. I'm just practicing, deliberately looking at some concepts and going

through those. And we'll talk about this.

So there are two articles.

One is actually a chapter from the Outliers book by Malcolm Gladwell. And

sure a lot of you have read that. I have read that.

The chapter, is gonna be 10 ,000 hours.

So we're gonna approach the practice from quantitative point of view. And

one of my favorite articles on the deliberate practice, the mundanity of

excellence. And then, guys, I will also give you a couple of other articles in

the next week for those of you who like the subject, optional reading.

But the mundanity of excellence is an excellent case study on the Olympic

swimmers and how they practiced and who of them actually qualified to be on the

Olympic team.

And who didn't? And what was different between their practices?

So I want you to read this.

And there is also some questions that I want you to answer. I want you to think

about your training and to answer a couple of questions.

And that is, what is the number of trades that you have per year?

How many hours per day?

do you spend on educating yourself, not just trading, but educating yourself

about trading, maybe going through the selection algorithm, maybe attending

classes, reading some books, listening to podcasts, and so on and so forth.

I want you to think about these concepts, and we will discuss those in

class.

because our time here in this course is limited, even though it's 15 sessions.

But we want to be extremely deliberate and precise as to what we

study. And I'm extremely serious about when I develop the

curriculum for the whole course.

You know, I'm going through all of the subjects and topics that we're going to

talk about.

I'm sequencing them in the logical way so that, you know, there would be some

bridges between what we've done before, what we're doing in each session, and

where the class is in general just as a group.

Okay, great. So this is assignment number one.

Assignment number two I'm going to explain in a second. It's going to be a

game. So we've had a huge success with students in this class as well in the

practicum in the last two cycles where one of the weekly

home assignment was to always analyze one chart or two charts and to define

bias distribution or accumulation and this is

Great exercise to do throughout the whole semester and just to stay on

analyzing by yourself, coming to the next class and actually listening to me

analyzing this chart as well and seeing where there is a discrepancy between

your analysis and my analysis.

And throughout the whole semester, I will ask you to keep the tally of how

many... successful biased games you've done and how many unsuccessful biased

games you know you've done that number that percentage whether it's 20 30 40 50

60 70 80 you know whatever number you're going to have is a reflection of

your level of knowledge right now and i usually say if

you're under 40 for this game most likely This means that my advice would

to you to stick with education and until you actually hit the bias game

consistently above 40%, you know, don't be very aggressive with your trading.

And that's what we do, you know, with this game.

It looks like a game, but there is a lot of education behind it.

And then the last assignment is optional assignment. And I'm extremely...

Excited about this, too.

These are kind of like the new innovations that we're bringing here in

education.

This assignment is going to be about specific stock, Aurora Cannabis.

I do have a position in the stock, so I'm going to show you exactly where I

entered that position, on which side, and we'll talk about the analysis of

stock. But to talk about the analysis of this talk intelligently, I would like

you to analyze it. So please send me your analysis to wakeofassociates at

.com with the title that this is the practical homework number one. You could

mention the ACB symbol for Aurora Cannabis.

And throughout the whole 15 sessions, we will have an

anatomy of a trade segment.

This is gonna be a real -time position that I already have.

We're gonna discuss it, and then as a class, we're gonna vote.

You guys are gonna vote what we're gonna do with this position.

Are we gonna close it?

Are we gonna open this position, add to the position?

Or are we gonna do nothing?

So very exciting.

We kind of have a lot of

elements throughout this class where uh you know we have the real -time market

you know with the anatomy of the trade segment we have an educational game on

the bias that's gonna gonna uh gonna go on and then we have a lot of material

that i'm just gonna give you during the class and i'm anticipating that we are

gonna interact a lot guys so just be prepared for that Just a quick reminder

those of you who are guests, this session is being recorded and we will

on the Wyckoff Trading Method YouTube channel tonight.

For those of you who signed up for the course, the mundanity of excellence and

the outliers articles will be posted tonight together with the class video

the slides on our class page that is behind the password wall.

So you will receive the access instructions to that page tonight as

Awesome. Okay, so here is your first home assignment.

This is the first bias game that we're going to have, guys.

And usually, you know, in the last cycle, if I had, you know, two charts

to take home and to go through, we're going to start with one, and then I just

want to kind of like, you know, once we're in a more, in a smaller group,

we'll decide, you know, how many charts we're going to have.

But this is the first chart, so have a look.

Here is your trading range, and the game is very simple. What do you think? Is

this an accumulation or is this a distribution?

Some student from this class, from the previous WTC class,

who plays this game,

who plays this game on Twitter, and I'll talk about this,

you know, he commented that sometimes we leave the

last bar kind of like in the middle of the range.

And that if we would have some kind of more or less definitive reversal

shown, it would be easier to define the bias.

That's not the point, guys.

If I would be showing to you the last bar reversal, then it would be easy to

guess what this is, correct?

I want you to think and analyze from the beginning of the chart to

the end of the chart. I want you to understand the environments, the

the structure itself.

And I don't want you to guess by the last bar.

I want you to create a Wyckoff story.

A Wyckoff story is a sequence of events that unfold throughout the chart.

And when we come to the last bar, we basically already have a developed bias

as to what it should be.

So we'll talk about this more.

But here is your first home assignment.

So for those of you who signed up, go for it.

I mentioned the bias game, and I mentioned that we play it on Twitter.

Very popular on Twitter.

This game comes out each week on Wednesdays,

and you just have to sign up for our Twitter. We also

have a lot of the free material that you could receive.

Be informed that it's out there. If you signed up for our Twitter, we have a lot

of new blogs.

We have three new blogs.

We have a lot of videos that are coming out each week.

So if you're on Twitter with us, you know exactly what comes out.

So it's just easier.

Then just play the game.

We give you the chart, as I've shown you before, and then we ask you to vote, to

cast your vote.

So in this case, this particular chart, people voted that it was distribution,

54%, 116 votes we had for that particular game. And then in a couple of

days, we give you a solution.

And not only that, we actually give you the Wyckoff story. This is the

description that...

you know, our content team works on and then I go through and then our editor

works on.

So it's a team effort to come up with this solution slide.

And this is just such a great education on the weekly basis that you could have

for free.

for free, not even attending the class.

And you will have the access to me and to our resources and to our

company.

So I would highly recommend you guys to

sign up on the Twitter.

Anatomy of the Trait. I mentioned Aurora Cannabis.

I'm not going to go into a lot of details of why I have a position

in this stock or what kind of position I have.

I really would like you guys to make your own analysis and to go through your

own analysis first.

And then in the second class, this is where we're going to go into a lot of

details. We're going to look at the long -term picture. We're going to look at

the short -term picture.

And this position that I have,

You know, could work out, might not work out. I don't know. And I don't really

care. I just have it.

And I think this is an interesting group right now.

I'm looking a lot into that group specifically, you know, for some of the

that I usually look for in the candidates during the selection process.

So I want you to just.

Do your analysis, but today, because we have guests, let's have fun.

So what we're going to do is what we're going to do every time.

We're going to examine this position, and then we're going to vote.

Should we add, close out? Should we open this position? Well, in this case, the

position is already open. So why don't we do this right now?

Look at the chart.

Think about this for a second.

Look at the price. Look at the volume signature. Look at where we are.

Think about the bias.

And let's go to the poll. I'm going to launch the poll right now.

Oh, I'm sorry.

Oh,

I think I made a mistake.

All right.

let me just quickly correct this apologies so

that just gives you a little bit more time to think about this this chart

again the question here is what would you do now would you

would you buy it at this

point would you short it at this point or would you do nothing

so let's see how the voting is going all

right okay well

while you're still guys of voting i'm gonna extract this information from our

poll

I'm gonna show you that in a second.

It's always interesting to see how people vote as a group.

So it gives me a very interesting perspective

as to what kind

of sentiment we have in the group on the specific position or

there is also a very interesting sequence as to how people vote on

and how people vote on the distribution.

So those are also very interesting.

And I'll talk about this later on and I'll show you more.

Okay, so what do we see here?

51 % of you are saying, let's buy it, let's buy it right now.

And 37%, the next big group, They're saying, let's just do nothing.

We don't have maybe enough confirmation and so on and so forth.

Okay, and that's how we would be doing this. We would be analyzing the stock.

would vote first, then we would analyze.

We would know exactly what position we have, and we would be analyzing a

short -term picture, a long -term picture.

We would be thinking about different scenarios and how the price is going to

unfold. Actually, basically, we're just going to go through that during the

semester. So a fun exercise for us to have throughout the semester, so I'm

looking forward to that, and hopefully you guys look forward to that as well.

All right, let's start our theoretical material.

You know, when I started teaching this class,

the biggest focus for me in educating

other people how to look at the chart was very basic.

What I've realized working with a lot of students and a lot of traders is that

there are kind of like common mistakes in the way how we look at the chart.

And those common mistakes are usually either In the analysis, either about

observations, we usually just basically have poor observation skills.

If you don't believe me, go out on the street, walk for five minutes around the

block, come back home and write down all of the details of everything that

you've seen in five minutes of your walk. And I bet you that most likely you

will not be able to, you know, list all of those.

So think about the chart as well, how many data points we have there, right?

for instance, one bar could have a bias data point. It's up at the close or

down. It also could have a data point on the close relative to the spread

itself, right? Is it in the upper part or a lower part?

We have a data point on the high and the low. We have a data point on the open.

open relative to the spread where it was.

Then we could go outside the bar and we could extend the series of data points

that we need to collect.

What about close to close relationship?

What about, let's say, a high of the previous bar to the open of the next bar

to the low of the next bar?

What is the percentage of advancement from close to close, from high to high,

from open to open, from low to low?

And I'm just talking about one single bar. Think about the volume signature,

that affects us. So there are so many data points that...

There are so many data points that we need to address.

When we look at the chart, in a lot of cases, our observations are just not

sufficient, not enough.

And that's kind of like one of the main things that we work in this particular

class, in the practicum.

We are developing the skill to make the correct observations.

And that's extremely important.

The second biggest issue that I figure out, you know, working with students is

that sometimes our deductions about what we see is incorrect.

So we deduce or induce rather, you know, something that

maybe has relevance to one time frame, but not another.

Maybe it's relevant to.

A short -term context, but not a long -term context.

And there are a great number of issues and mistakes that we make with our

deductions. So we're going to go through the exercises, and as we go through

them, we will develop a specific way of how we're thinking about analysis

of a chart.

What do we look at first?

What is the important...

for us to observe, and then what kind of deductions we usually and regularly

would make based on our observations.

And obviously, those deductions and observations are all going to be in line

with our intent, which is to find the bias, whether up, down, or sideways, to

time that bias correctly, because we want to be efficient with our capital,

to understand in the selection process

what is the best stock to choose or the instrument to choose that will have the

most favorable character on the next move?

And that's what we are basically dealing with in the practical.

Okay, so I've talked about this, outliers, mundanity of excellence. This

a duplicate chart, a slide.

Okay. Let's quickly talk about what we're developing at Wyckoff Analytics,

new program that we have that is being launched this semester.

And we're going to have the new website probably in a couple of weeks, so

there's going to be more information on this.

We have launched a certificate of proficiency in Wyckoff Method, and we

dedicated the certificate to Henry O 'Pruden.

Well, Henry.

Hank, or Dr. Pruden, was my teacher, was my mentor.

He was a teacher to a lot of Wyckoff traders and students.

And unfortunately, he passed away in 2017 after the

best Wyckoff that we had.

And this is something that Hank and I...

discussed a long time ago um Hank had an idea to have a certificate in Wyckoff

method at Golden Gate University where he taught and I taught as well

unfortunately you know with his path in the whole program has been axed and

We only have a couple of classes there that are left, so hopefully they will

come back to us and they will reinstate it. But meanwhile, we're just kind of

following the footsteps of Dr. Pruden himself, and I talked to the

family about using his name, and they're just extremely excited that Hank's

legacy is going to be.

you know, preserved like that. So I think it's very appropriate.

So if you would like to finish this certification, and this certification is

just for you, this is basically to tell you that I have taken the courses that

were recommended on this subject of Wyckoff methodology, and I have

taken all of them.

And those courses are...

should be enough for me to recognize that I have the knowledge and the skill

trade the Wyckoff method.

And we have five mandatory courses and then three electives that you could

choose yourself.

So something new, something exciting.

Check it out, guys. And if you have any questions, just email us on this.

Speaking of questions, Elle has a question here, and that is on Aurora.

Let me see.

Okay, too late to September 11th, the earnings

for ACB.

Therefore, Al is saying it's late to sell before earnings.

Hold for the next earnings report.

ACB's fundamentals are not great because it overpaid on some growth

acquisitions. So we'll talk more about, you know, some of the stories in that

space as well. Usually when, you know, I open the position, you know, I don't

open the position just in one stock, you know, if I'm campaigning the stock,

right? So I'm usually spread out.

So this is just one of the stocks that they have in that space.

And we'll talk about that overpaying for acquisitions. This is not only for

Aurora in this space, but for other stocks like Canopy as well. So we'll

those type of discussions.

Thank you, Al.

All right, let's go into the next segment. So each class, as you guys kind

already sense, has segments.

One of the segments here is going to be for us the question and answer.

And I usually don't encourage students in the WTC to have extensive questions

until the end of the semester.

Usually their questions, and as you guys know, you know, who have taken this

course, come in anticipation of the upcoming material.

So I usually tell them, wait, wait, wait.

Until we are there, ask then if it's content appropriate.

I will answer this question. But other than that, let's leave it for the last

session. In the practicum, we are doing it in a different way.

And the reason why I changed it is because in the practicum, we have

intermediate -advanced students, and those questions are really important and

relevant to our current discussions.

So therefore, I'm going to show you guys kind of like a segment of...

how we dive in and go into the Q &A each

class. In each class, you guys can submit your

questions, and we'll go through those really quickly. So there are two people

who submitted the questions. So, Simon, thank you so much.

Again, from sunny Sydney, would love to be there.

Definitely going to go to Sydney and to Australia.

So let's plan on having some kind of Wyckoff sessions there.

A series of questions. And Simon, I think from the last semester, I remember

questions about the tests, and I thought that we've addressed them.

But, you know, repetition is fine, and we're going to go through this again, so

thank you for submitting.

Right away, Simon is saying that the context for answering this question is

that we are looking at the

under the accumulation or an uptrend. So right away, guys, think about the

structure that we have here.

Accumulation, trading range, or an uptrend. So what do we look at here?

What is the purpose of the test? That's the first question. And then the answer

that Simon is giving is that the purpose of the test in accumulation or an

uptrend is to test the supply back into the price area where the test has

occurred.

Is this correct?

Yes.

Absolutely. We want to test, you know, if we are in the uptrend, what are we

testing?

We might say that these are the tests that come at the

line of least resistance at the support.

And every time we have some kind of reaction, we might have some kind of

increase in the supply signature.

And we are testing the availability of institutional desire to

come in and to support the price at this level.

I'm going to say this in a different way.

Every time we are having some kind of test, we are testing if...

there is sufficient interest on the demand side to come in and to observe

short -term supply that is available.

And usually when we talk about somebody coming in on the demand side, those are

going to be institutions.

Those also could be professional traders.

There are a lot of the traders here that are going to look at the mean reversion

trade. Just because we're in the short -term oversold condition, this means

the... price should come back to a mean, right?

If we were in the overbought condition, those traders will be shorting.

If we are in the oversold condition, in the uptrend, again, extremely important

to remember the context of where we are, then they will be buying in

anticipation that not only the price will come back to the mean,

but it might also overcommit into the next overbought condition in the

and that would be a swing trade.

An example of this concept,

actually, we probably, well, let me just show you guys really quickly.

Okay.

So an example of this.

Both concepts.

It's going to be this most recent trade in gold that I'm in. So I am

long -term companion gold, meaning that I have a cash position

in gold. I have opened this position here.

Hold on a second. That was in April. Yes.

So that was the first time. So back in April, and then in May, I think either

here or here.

So there were multiple entries for this position before the price started moving

up. I was not adding on the stepping stone, but what I've done

just recently, specifically here, here,

is I hedged this position.

So my hedge is acting against my main long

-term campaign position.

And we'll talk about why we do this and when would we do this more

importantly because the timing with hedges is gonna be extremely important

when you actually do this.

And also, I'm having puts

here against the cash, so you need to understand how you actually

calibrate your position in such a way that it becomes neutral. So instead of

your equity line doing this, just basically reflecting what the gold is

with the hedge, your equity line should just be something like this so this way

you're not losing some of the unrealized gains that you already have in your

cash position and when there is going to be some kind of rebound from here and

you close your hedge uh you know that cash position should increase your

and you basically should have something like this so um This type of more

advanced concepts and techniques, we're definitely going to discuss a lot.

This is just an example of that.

And I don't think I'm going to go into the analysis of this. I don't think we

have time.

All right. So those are the tests. Yes, we are testing definitely the supply.

But also I want you to understand that we are testing not just supply.

We are testing.

if institutions are willing to step in and to observe that short -term supply

that is being provided to the market by weak hands at that point.

So you could state it in a different way.

Another question, how do we identify a test?

Is it a swing low or a hammer candle?

So I've highlighted this because A swing low could have different type of

reversals, right? So it's not necessarily that we could have some kind

or we could have some kind of candle that's going to be a big reversal

There are so many variations. We could have literally a candle like this that's

going to be a really average candle, and that could be the end.

of the swing low, especially with the lower volume signature and with the LPS

type of scenario.

And that would be it. So we can't really say, I would say like a swing low, but

probably not a hammer candle necessarily.

And the question here is, how do we identify a test? Can we have testing at

swing? This is the second question, okay.

So different type of variations.

But the main theme, and we've discussed this in the WTC course, and we will be

talking next class about the significant bars and the reversals.

In this swing, how do we identify a reversal, and how do we confirm that

reversal? So that's going to be talked about in the next class.

But we need to have some kind of significant bar to reverse.

the last commitment to the downside and that's what would would define you know

that uh reversal and would confirm the test can we have a testing at

the swing high yes absolutely checking for demand or rather checking if the

institutions are providing supply at that higher level that also could be

interpreted like that what is regarded as a successful test.

And here we usually would say successful test is gonna have a high or low, and

preferably we would see some kind of diminishing volume signature going into

test low.

Now, this is not necessarily exactly how it should be.

We could have a variation where this high or low could be slightly lower.

and still have a reversal and where the volume signature actually could increase

and then um that volume signature increase is going to show us that

there is a demand behind that volume so we could have both variations so then

where is the truth where is that concept that would tell us that's how i'm going

to do this when i look at the test the key here is to understand a result,

what is happening with the result.

If we have the volume signature that is diminishing on the high or low and the

price then reverses, then we are saying that the reversal confirms the success

of the test.

If we have a lot of supply coming in and there is an absorption, aggressive

absorption by institutions as they provide the demand, and we have the

and confirmation that that swing is done, and the result is such that we are

progressing to the upside, that was a successful test as well.

So you could have different structures for tests.

You could have different volume signature for tests.

But your key definition, whether it was a successful test or not, is going to be

based on the result of what has happened after the test.

And that's why we talk about a confirmation, a confirmation.

Simon is asking, so is the true result of the test not

so much the creation of the higher low itself?

Now, okay, because we're in this advanced course, I'm going to show you a

that's going to have a different structural point.

Simon, how about this test?

Cell in climax.

Climactic.

Volume.

And then a test, secondary test like this.

And then the volume signature goes down. So what do we have here in terms of

the, and then the price goes up. So what do we have in terms of available

information to us for the definition of the success of the test? The volume goes

down. We usually say, yeah, we want to see that. So that's successful.

But we have a lower low.

So structurally, it's not successful test.

Usually in WTC course, I teach the material in such way that basically

that the test should be a higher, low and lower supply.

This is the next level of the confirmation.

But for those of you who are more advanced and especially in this class,

sometimes our secondary tests are going to look like this.

And still the climactic action itself is going to be prior to that.

And that test is going to come as a low, low, low.

It might have another test somewhere here, further down the road as a higher

low.

And we could identify that. But we should understand as advanced students

the tests could happen this way. And the biggest thing for us in the

identification of the successful test is what happens next, the result.

Okay, last question. What is the concept?

process of evaluation action and test.

What is considered the action and what is considered a test and the

identification of this?

So this is a very interesting concept because, you know, in Hinkler, you know,

talking about this concept, because we could literally have this concept

applied to so many things.

We could say that

An actionable bar, which is a big bar, has some kind of test after that.

And by the virtue of how the next bar behaves, we could deduce as to

what's going to happen next, at least short term. So therefore, the first bar

going to be action, and then the second bar is going to be a test.

I would say that the next action is going to be either confirmation or

And that's also extremely important in the sequence of action, test, and

failure. Well, if we're talking about the bars, how about we talk about the

swings in the market?

So how about we have a swing up and then a swing down?

A swing up will be an action and swing down will be a test of that action.

that be appropriate as well, you know, as an action and test sequence?

Absolutely. And then again, Think about the confirmation of failure.

What is going to come next?

And that's also a test.

Well, how about this? For the most radical thinking on this concept, how

thinking about the phases as action and test?

For instance, action to the downside as a downtrend.

action as a selling climax, and then the test of that is either

an automatic rally, the test that the environment is changing, or the

test of it is that the supply of the downtrend is done, right? So those are

local action tests.

How about this?

Action as phase A

And then multiple tests after that. Test here,

number two, in phase B. Test here, number three, in phase C.

And then even test four at the higher level in phase D.

Simon is saying, so is the process action test confirmation?

In my mind, I thought the test is the definitive answer or the confirmation.

And see, when we talk about these things, they make more sense because we

in this dialogue right now with Simon, he's just typing in and I'm just reading

his comments.

That's where the truth comes, in my opinion. I see this a lot as a process,

teaching process with students. When you talk to people, that's when we see the

truth. And the truth here is that You can use action test

as a concept on different, you know, as I've shown here, on different levels

here.

But at the end of it, a test itself does not necessarily mean

that it's successful until we actually have a confirmation

or a failure.

And we just have to wait for that.

And that's why the significant bar technique is so crucial to understand

swing reverses, confirming the higher low on the swing here,

let's say after this reversal, acting as a confirmation

and suggesting that the price will go up. And at that point, we will make an

assumption, would it overcome the high?

Would the character be such that it's going to do so very rapidly or slowly

so on and so forth?

All right, Simon, really good questions.

So I'm looking forward to the next week with your questions. Let's see where we

are. We are at four o 'clock. OK, great. We're doing well.

Let's go to other questions. And these questions come from.

Oh, I'm going to mispronounce the name.

Johan. I think Johan. So Johan, let me just see. Are you hearing that?

Yeah, so hopefully I'm pronouncing the name correctly.

So this is a very interesting

work in the sense of the commonality of the mistakes throughout

the charts that were sent.

So just for the purposes of this particular class, the first session, and

for the purposes of highlighting how we go into a lot of the

details in our analysis, I would do this, and I would go through all of the

Hands charts.

In reality, we obviously have quite a few students in the class, and this is

just the first session. So once we go into the semester,

deeper into the semester where I probably would prefer to have maybe like

couple of charts from you guys for each session and not five to 10 charts or so

on and so forth.

But we'll go hopefully quickly through some of the concepts here that

Jochen is discussing.

All right, so the first concept here, when we see the context of the uptrend

we see the structure.

We know what has happened afterwards.

It's a downtrend. So the question here is how can we know that this was a

distribution? Because the volume signature seems to be very low, so it's

indicative of the distributional pattern.

Okay, so let's address this question, but also on the background.

I want everyone to think about the commonality of the mistakes.

that a trader makes from chart to chart and the analysis and then we'll kind of

like conclude with the summary of those analytical

mistakes.

So if I would be trading this, my inclination here would be to go and

to look at the bias, which is at this

point is up.

On the change of character, there is really not a lot of supply that is

in. It's very mediocre.

And that reaction does not produce a big retracement.

So at this point, we're still thinking that this is a reaccumulation and all of

our short -term trades are going to be to the upside.

So anytime the price comes down in the trading range, we would be thinking up,

up. And then we would be making a judgment to the progress.

that the price makes to the upside.

An up thrust right here, commitment, and it overcomes the resistance of the

climactic action, so that looks really good.

A little bit of the increased volatility and increased volume signature here

suggests that supply has increased.

What would we do next?

Well, we will keep this in mind, but we want to see some kind of test.

Coming back to Simon's question, a higher low.

on the diminishing volume signature.

Do we know, let's say on this bar, that the test was successful?

We are assuming, Simon, that the test will be successful, and we only are

confirming the test once we have that reversal.

Once we have that reversal, we are anticipating the price will go up, and

facing a series of other questions at this point.

But that's how we would be thinking about the test.

All right, and then...

at this point of time, when we look at this formation, all we're thinking

okay, so maybe some phase analysis, A, B, and we're thinking, okay, well, this

could be B, and then we could have maybe a reaction into C, and then

up movement, or if we're thinking, yeah, and the phase analysis would not allow

us to put a C here. This is a little bit too much.

And then B, we always want to be the largest phase. So even on the structural

analysis, that doesn't kind of feel comfortable.

But my point here is that look at the volume signature.

And this is what Johan is referring here to. This is the biggest problem.

What do we do with that volume signature?

Well, I want you to think about not just necessarily supply coming in and

showing its hand.

I want you to also think about the demand. Think about the demand in the

and what kind of signature it has that it moves the price like this. And then

look at the latest demand signature and analyze it against that uptrend. And we

could see that the demand signature is so low.

It's probably minus two times lower than on average than what we have had

in the uptrend.

So that is a concern.

Whenever the demand is like this, you always have to look at the result.

Are we advancing in the price action on such diminishing demand,

suggesting that supply is even lower at such point that the price can move up?

And we don't see that here. And it's very subtle.

And you just have to develop the anticipation when you see a picture like

that there could be a failure. There could be a reversal. And this is, I

where the mistake was made. The mistake was made actually kind of thinking

and analyzing of what's happening in this area and then giving less weight to

actually the failure itself.

And in some of the instances where we especially discuss any type of the

structure that would be given to a leadership, right, so where let's say a

leadership has upsloping structure like this, where leadership has maybe a short

-term change of character, reaccumulation pattern, and then has an

So this type of structures.

are always going to be confusing to us because they're going to have a lot of

elements of reaccumulation.

And this is what we are studying, you know, in the WTC course. So, Johan, if

have a chance, you know, to attend the WTC course, this is exactly what we

be studying in there.

But let's say that we missed all of that.

And to me, it's still, and I would say, I would agree with Johan that it's just

really hard to...

differentiate this type of volume signature and this type of bullish

as a distributional pattern.

So what do you do? You have to concentrate on the failure itself.

Here is a failure to advance in price.

Here is the failure to observe the emerging supply.

And it becomes a sign of weakness.

And LPSY, last point of supply.

And here are a lot of points where we can establish the position. And that

be just a very good position.

All right, let's go. Let's jump to the next one because we have quite a few

that we need to discuss.

How do you know it's backholding and not selling by the CO?

So let's talk about the backholding as a semantic.

um i really like this i was just reading something uh just recently by wyckoff

himself and you know he had that uh back selling bake back holding um so the

concept here is that there is some kind of bag that the ceo has and

then all of the shares from all of the weak hands in the situation

like this where we have a very clearly defined climactic action that comes on

earnings reports.

And this is where institutions are just basically opening up the bag and they're

holding up the bag to absorb all of the shares that are coming their way on an

event like this.

All right, so that's our bag holding right there.

analyzing this structure would probably bring us to some conclusions

about this area right here that is being noticed and mentioned

here. So let's kind of see what happens prior to that.

Definitely a lot of the buy -in by itself, such extreme volume signature

from average demand signature we are seeing

probably an increase by what? One, two, three, four, five, maybe times five,

times six.

That's a substantial increase in the volume signature that would suggest not

only an increase in the volume, not only the increase in the supply that comes

from weekends as they're capitulating, but also an increase in the demand

signature.

Why would the demand signature increase?

Well, institutions,

that are contrarian in nature, value investors.

I see in this point as a point of value

just because it's deeply oversold at this point.

And they are seeing this as a high point of liquidity.

And because their size is humongous, they need a lot of liquidity to get into

the position that they want to go into.

These are the two requirements, you know, from WTC course that we study for

institutions. So looking at the selling climax itself, we know that we are in a

deeply oversold condition from the high of 400 to the low of 200.

That institutions are present and therefore we might think that this could

accumulation here.

At least, you know, a short -term accumulation that could lead us maybe

cover the gap.

So therefore with this idea, then we go through the analysis of this structure.

We see that there is a quick recovery on another volume signature confirming the

bias. We're seeing that as the price goes below twice, the

supply that comes is not that great.

And the last time where we have the commitment, we have an effort to push

price down.

only one commitment below the support, and then the quick reversal on the

expanding volume signature.

So demand is expanding, and even though supply is expanding, it doesn't produce

the same type of movement that we've had before.

It's a more laborious movement.

And I'm sure if we would go bar by bar, we would probably find even more

evidence that this particular structure was an accumulation. But let's say that

we completely...

missed all of that, then what would be the test? And here is, again, this

reference to the test question that Simon was asking. So you guys kind of

see that, you know, during the class, it's an ongoing discussion as

to how we look at different concepts, and then we'll look at the chart, and

we're identifying all of those concepts.

So is this a successful test with the high volume signature?

Well, based on our conversation with Simon, it should be, right? Well, first

all, this is the volume signature here. So if we look at the latest supply,

supply is diminishing.

So this green bars, they refer to

this swing right here. So we see that the volume has diminished.

But what if our test looks like this, where the supply is increasing?

And is this a test?

Yeah, absolutely.

It's a test of multiple things.

It's a test of this area right here, and it's a test of the climactic action

that we had on this sign of strength right here.

And by itself, it's phase C, so intentionally, it's a test by itself.

But the supply has increased.

Still high or low, supply has increased.

And it's only the recovery and the confirmation of this recovery, together

the structure where we're thinking we are in phase D at this point,

the confirmation gives us an understanding that

that test on the increased supply signature was successful.

All right, let's go to another one. I'm going to go faster at this point,

although we are at 4 .15, so plenty of time. That's great.

Okay, so let's look at the next example.

How do you know it's back holding and not real supply?

And we're being referred to this point right here. So very interesting because

contextually, it's the same situation, right?

Contextually, we were in the downtrend on the previous chart.

I've mentioned that we had a very extreme volume signature. Now, please

that We had the same type of volume signature before.

I'm going to come back really quickly to the previous chart, and I want to show

you that distinction.

This is different relative to what we've seen before, even this bar right here,

to what we have seen on this chart.

This is probably more of the volume spike signature that comes

quite regularly throughout this chart.

So therefore, this termination of the down move could be just intermediate.

And we don't know yet.

We need to confirm or deny that, right? So what do we do? We go through the

analysis of the trading range, and we're trying to find some kind of definition

of the bias.

And we're seeing that throughout this whole formation,

Demand could possibly push the price up. It still finds some supply.

And every time we're going up, supply is present.

So look at how supply is increasing every time we get to the top of

this formation.

This is exactly the bias exercise that we would be doing. Also, let's see where

the price stops. So the price stops at the areas where we have...

a lot of movement to the downside. So here and then here.

So this is the value zone for institutions where they sold.

So this is a selling value zone which is institutional.

They sold on the way down right here.

So if they sold on the way down, What we want to look at in the information is

every time the price goes up, does it encounter emergence of the supply from

institutions at that level?

And if it does, then most likely institutions are still selling and we

probably in the redistribution rather than in accumulation.

So we could see that from this volume signature, this volume signature right

here, this volume signature on this bar right here. Now the price goes down.

And we start seeing the opposite. We're seeing now the increase in the volume

signature as the price goes down around this area right here.

And this one as well. And we're starting to think, well, what is happening here?

All of this pushes down.

We're not really going down that much. And when we do, the demand signature

increases. And that stops the price from moving further down in a much freer.

manner, much freer way.

So with this change of conditions, what we are doing is

we are waiting for some kind of confirmation.

If this is a change of behavior, would we have a confirmation that

instead of the bias to the downside, we might have some kind of bias to the

upside?

And we do.

There is a recovery above the support level.

So again, we have a temporary commitment, which acts as a spring.

We're coming back into the trading range with the test.

And off we go from here. We're expecting that at least this causality should

produce some kind of result, some kind of effect to us. But we're also very

cognizant. This is where the selling has occurred.

So we want to see.

would we be having some kind of increase in selling as the price goes up?

So we know that most likely this might be overcome just because of this

substructure here.

And it does. And when we do see this overcoming of this area, we want to note

those points of how supply is acting at the same area.

so something like this and we see that supply comes in and it's not

as high as it was before let's say on this bar or this bar right here that's

encouraging that means that we're going to continue up and we're most likely

going to overcome this resistance and then as we do so we still want to

the supply and supply has increased so that suggests that

Supply is still here in this area, in this original area of the selling that

institutions have done.

And if it's going to fail, most likely we're going to say that supply has

increased and we're going to continue to the downside.

And it does.

And supply increases more on the way down. So that confirms the bias to the

downside again.

High or low?

A lot of demand is coming in, and it seems like a very aggressive push to the

upside. Effort is increasing tremendously.

And what do we do as a result to the upside?

It's diminishing because of the lower high, and it still falls

into the same value zone for selling for institutions, and therefore...

that suggests that if we're going to have some kind of failure, now we're

to have a move to the downside.

And that failure comes on the increase in supply somewhere here. This would be

really great point of entry for us.

So as you could see, guys, and Johan, hopefully that gives you an

example of...

how we analyze the chart here in this class particular you know obviously a

above um you know wtc so uh if you're haven't taken wtc course

i'm not even gonna entertain any ideas that you're gonna come here and without

any preparation to do this type of analysis a lot of people

have come to this class and they have failed to be at the level that I want

to be as students.

So right now, every time somebody asks me, could

I take the practicum without taking the WTC course, I just say plainly no.

There's still, in my mind, there was no single person who...

Kind of went through the process and I was satisfied with that.

All right, let's go to the next one.

Really quickly again, I'm looking at the time for 20. No, we still have plenty

of time.

Okay, so let's just see where it's going to take us.

Right away, where we have the question, don't start with the question or the

point where the question is. Start with the context.

We had a speculative move up.

that had a TP formation with the distribution on the way down. So right

are in the down bias.

We see the confirmation by the volume signature.

We see how we had a test and a test to the stopping action. And that test

was successful even though, and I hope Simon's going to catch this,

even though this was a slightly lower low.

How could this be?

How could the test be as structurally as a low -low?

Well, the test has all of other characteristics that are needed for us

confirm that this is a test by itself, and then further action is going to

confirm that this test was successful.

So a confirmation of the test is extremely important.

So now with that, we know that there is some kind of testing that suggests the

rally. We want to see what kind of rally we're going to have here. Again, the

logic is going to be the same.

And the logic as to how we analyze the chart is going to be the same from chart

to chart to chart.

As you could see, I'm talking about the context first. I'm not talking about the

specific bar.

Then I'm looking at the context more local, what comes prior to the point of

interest. And we said that, yes, we see a number of tests in the...

That suggests a rally in the environment that's still to the downside.

If we are in the environment to the downside, then we definitely want to,

identify the areas where institutions have sold considerably.

And this is this bar right here. So we want to see the price come

back here, and we want to understand how would the price react around these

levels. So every time the price would come back here, there would be some kind

of rejection.

And then this bar happens.

This is the most exciting bar on the upside.

Weak hands are going to be thinking that all of the shorts are going to

capitulate, so the price is going to go up.

But still, it's too much to bear.

on the background, this context to the downside is just too much.

So we need to see whether we're gonna have a continuation and actually we can

get out of this selling zone by institutions or are we gonna have a

failure and the price is gonna come back below this level of the support?

And the price does.

So at this point, we would be thinking that this could be a point of entry for

us for the trade to the downside.

Okay, so what else here?

I saw this as an effort versus result bar.

So are we sure we're looking at the same bar? So this is the bar, although we

are discussing this bar right here.

Okay, the volume was much higher than the red bar before and the result was

less.

Okay, so I see. All right.

Okay, let's look at this really quickly. So the volume is increasing. So we're

thinking that the effort to push the price down is increasing.

And yet the result is decreasing relative to the previous bar. Why? Well,

because we have a higher low here.

and the closest high. So the result to the downside is decreasing.

Increasing effort to push the price down with the decreasing result on the

higher low suggest a bullish behavior.

And here is the problem with this analysis.

Everything is correct here, but because we're expecting a bullish behavior, in

what timeframe?

We're expecting the bullish behavior coming out of this particular formation.

So we are expecting some kind of rally.

Did it happen?

Yes, it did.

The rally has happened.

Your analysis was correct.

I'm not sure about the conclusion at that point, but my conclusion was that

next move is going to be a rally and the move is going to be bullish.

And we had a rally.

and that rally just failed.

And that's it.

That's all she wrote about this, right? But again, I think that the mistake here

was, and the issue was, again, not identifying the context correctly from

beginning, and then kind of like, let's say, put in a short -term scenario

as the analysis of the overall structure.

So, and that's very common.

you know issue in the analysis that i did uh you know in almost each class i

this as a diminution supply but it was obviously no demand so are we talking

about this here um it's actually the supply signature is actually on average

quite high so i still would be thinking that yes, indeed the volume signature

diminishes, but relative to the previous levels, we still have a lot of supply.

So there is a lot of supply right here, as there was a lot of supply on this bar

right here.

Okay.

All right, so we have quite a few here from your hand. So what I'm gonna do is,

I'm gonna come back to this if we still have time.

because these are some interesting case studies that we still have to go through

as a Q &A.

But hopefully this is a good example for you guys as to how do we deal with the

Q &A for the class or during the class. And if we have time, let's just come

back to this.

Something relatively new or rather...

relatively new as a message, but relatively old as the concept that we've

discussing in the Wyckoff Trading Course for quite some time.

Behavioral market analysis.

What is behavioral market analysis? This is just my humble attempt to talk about

the connection between the market participant

behaviors and what we see on the chart.

It's the connection between how we behave as people and how is that

being shown on the chart and how we could understand that behavior.

And we are doing this through the prism of the price cycle.

And we're doing it as a case study.

This is from yesterday's class. So I'm only going to have two slides here from

yesterday's class. But these are important slides that I wanted to show

guys, you know, more advanced students.

Because I didn't have it in the WTC in the previous cycles, even though we've

talked about market participants, right? So in price cycle, who are the market

participants?

I'm looking at this as, you know, four major forces that we have to think

Institutional contrarian investor.

Those are going to be value investors.

These are the investors that are going to go against the...

most acceptable idea of the bias at this time.

In the downtrend, the most acceptable idea on the bias is that it's a

So their contrarian idea is going to be to go against it. Obviously, they're

going to be contrarian at the point of value.

And this point of value will be defined by their methodology.

This point of value usually will have some kind of climactic characteristics.

And therefore, this point will have a lot of liquidity around it. Just think

about why liquidity is so important.

Well, because the value investor and those contrary investors have huge size.

If they wouldn't have a huge size, they wouldn't act this way. They wouldn't be

able even to stop a downtrend from further falling down on the fears of

hands.

Their time horizon is extremely long. It's from cyclical to secular

time horizon.

So therefore, they could allow themselves to... are going into the

early on in our early stages of accumulation in phases A, and they are

that are responsible for the stopping of the downtrend and for the initial

changes of character.

What are they looking for?

They're looking for a long -term value. They want to stay in the position for a

long time and to have a long -term appreciation of the instrument.

They want to find short -term liquidity. Those are the spots of where fear is

going to be very much present among the weak hands.

And when we say weak hands, we don't necessarily mean retail weak hands. We

mean institutional weak hands.

They obviously want to operate and they look for a contrarian sentiment where

everything is so bad they come in and they establish their meaningful

and that's what changes the behavior of other market participants and the price

structure itself.

They have some limitations.

They are too big of a size so they can't move really fast. Therefore, they

prefer low turnover.

of their portfolio.

They're also very concerned about the tax implications and those tax

implications are such that they don't want to pay extra taxes and therefore

don't want to have short -term trades.

Most likely their main core positions are going to be in cash, leveraged,

hedged against by either leveraged participations.

by leverage positions, or maybe just the opposite, kind of like a pair or spread

trading.

Their edge is in time horizon.

Just because their time horizon is so long, some of the positions that the

current CEOs are holding were initiated back then in 2008, 2009 lows,

were reaccumulated, re -rotated in 2010, 2011, 2012,

throughout the volatility of 2014, 15, and 16, and on the way up through

Brexit and the U .S. election in 2016 into the highs of 2017.

So you can imagine the flexibility on the time horizon that they have.

Their edge is the long -term trend.

They can acquire a meaningful position as

the value persists at the bottom of the downtrend, and they can hold on to this

through the long -term trend and distribute this position on the way up

weak hands are becoming excited.

And from WTC course, we have two points of excitement, right? One on the buying

climax, one on the upthrust.

This is where they love to unload those positions into the excitement of weak

hands.

They are visible on the charts by the extreme points of volume, by the points

liquidity, by the absolute and relative trends, and by the long -term volume

signature. We also, in November, will be studying in the special a long -term

momentum signatures.

Those are also going to be important for us in identification of the COO buying

and then just, you know, a smaller interest buying. The examples of such

operators are going to be just the definition of the composite operator

And I've explained to you guys yesterday that there is a big difference between

a composite operator that Wyckoff himself had as a definition, and I've

you an article on that, and then other institutions.

It was very interesting that Wyckoff, in one of the issues of the ticker, the

magazine, the digest that he was publishing in the early

1900s,

He was describing a composite operator as an opposite composite

man to J .P. Morgan and Rockefeller and other institute stock

operators at the time. He was talking about a heuristic, a composite, and

why this is a composite operator, a heuristic composite image.

I think that the best value of... investor of our times is Warren Buffett.

think this is just an easier way to imagine him, you know, who this

is.

Such big funds like PIMCO or BlackRock hedge funds, those are usually all about

the size.

So you could refer to that.

And then the second most interesting group of market participants for us is

the institutional trend follower.

Those are usually going to be money managers that are going to use growth

concept. And they would be looking for the appreciation of prices in

order for them to satisfy the limitations that they have. And

what limitations do they have?

Well, they are money managers, so the performance matrix are extremely

important. And their behaviors are going to be driven by the performance matrix

as well as assets under management.

They're also very much concerned about the low turnover of the portfolio

their clients are very unwilling to be in the portfolio with high turnover.

And they're also concerned about tax implications for their clients.

They are sizable.

They have a big size, and they are cyclical. They're usually going to stay

the position over a year, over two years, depending on the stock.

And they're looking for the emergence of the trend or a break of the trend.

They're looking also for the liquidity and value.

Their edge is in their time horizon, cyclical time horizon. Long -term

whether those are absolute or relative trends.

and also in the deep knowledge as well as the deep knowledge that the

investor has.

And those are usually going to be your pension funds, insurance companies,

investment banks, mutual funds, hedge funds, registered investment advisors.

They are going to operate at the specific place in the structure.

They are not going to be trying to find the value and catch the bottom just

because... If you're trying to catch the value at the bottom and your

methodology is showing that the trend is still not in place, this type of value

could fail and we could have a continuation to the downside.

Or in the basket scenario, it's just continuation of the trading range.

So therefore, just because their behavior is based on the performance

the timing is more important.

And that's why all of their models and methodologies are based on the

identification of how the trend starts to emerge.

And that's when they jump on that trend.

In a way, our timing is the same.

We want to be efficient with the way how we handle our capital.

So therefore, it changes of character on the way out of the trading range where

we could observe...

Phase D was the elements of the sign of strength rally and backing up action are

going to be extremely crucial to us.

They are going to be high probability points of interest for us where we would

be establishing this position. So in a way, we're acting as institutional trend

followers. And we want to stay either in the long -term trend or we want to

dissect this trend into different segments and swing trade those segments.

This group also will identify the emergence of the beginning downtrend the

way how they identify the beginning of the uptrend.

And they will be on the right side of the trading range when that happens.

After the contrarian investors have produced their selling and have sold out

their positions and that in effect have stopped the price from moving further

up.

And we discuss in detail this whole process in the Wyckoff trading course.

Where do they sell?

Why it happens?

And what should happen next?

So by the time the institutional trend followers start selling, either their

positions or established in short positions, the bias has been

And then we have two other groups. They are smaller groups, professional

traders. and retail traders um momentum driven and professional traders are mean

reversion driven as well and i've shown you that mean reversion uh from the gold

trade that you know i've shown you right so long -term campaign uh and then mean

reversion trade in the overbought condition

And that's what professional traders would do. They would trade it like that.

And that's why we have so much liquidity at different spots. And that's why here

we're going to have an increase of the volume signature in general and increase

of the supply that would lead to some kind of reaction that we're observing

right now in gold, in bonds, because they were oversold and so on and so

Size is small.

Their time horizon is small.

They are looking for the overbought, oversold momentum.

For the retail traders, the breakouts are extremely important and different

points of excitement.

There are limitations.

Too many trades, high commissions, short -term taxation, lower size are

sentiment -driven in the retail case and lower knowledge and lower skill.

These are going to be the definitions for the retail and then professionals

going to be somewhat better because this is their job, but still are going to

have some limitations that are going to go against them if we would

compare them to trend followers or contrarian investors.

But we do have a lot of quickness.

We abide different rules than other investors.

We are very much momentum -driven. We are not necessarily visible on the

Sometimes we do. Sometimes we'll talk about how weak hands are pushing the

rally, and we could see from the weakness that that rally is retail

All right, and I think that's it on this. Let's look at the example.

Really quick, this is Apple daily.

Again, behavioral market analysis, what kind of questions are we addressing? Who

are these market participants?

And how do we identify their presence on the chart and subsequently trade

against or in harmony with them?

So where are the contrarian investors, value investors?

Well, look at the volume signature.

Every time we have some kind of spike.

in the volume signature when the price goes down.

What does it mean?

Supply increases, that pushes the price down, but yet the

price stops from going down. That suggests that there is an opposite force

comes and absorbs that supply.

And that's what happens at those points of that are in green.

It's the institutional contrarian investors that are accumulating as the

falls. And it's very logical because they accumulate at the point of value.

point of value is not going to be on the way up for them.

The point of value on the way up could be for institutional trend followers.

It could be for the momentum traders as they expect the price to go even higher.

But for the value investors, the value point is always going to be as the price

goes down and at the point where they see that there is some kind of

for the price to go further down and some other investors already

in accumulation.

So we could easily see where the value investors came in and established their

positions.

All right, well, that's great. They stop the price from moving further down.

They support the price.

And by the way, think about this whole uptrend support idea. We started with

that conversation.

Where is the test in the uptrend environment?

These are the tests of the uptrend.

This is how the uptrend is being supported by that value investor.

And then the next investor, institutional trend follower, is going

the price off those levels, and it's also going to have an increased volume

signature. But the price is going to behave differently with them.

The price, just because supply has been observed at some point by the value

investors, on the additional orders by institutional trend followers, is just

going to mark up.

It's going to go up.

And that's what creates the trend.

We'll talk about this a lot in the WTC second portion of it. I've developed the

trend analysis classification of the trends, and we'll talk about, you know,

this type of scenarios.

How do we understand the trend?

And then what happens, you know, how does the trend dissolve itself?

Well, the same sequence happens again, only in reverse.

We start observing the volume signature increases.

at the points where the price goes up and then just kind of stops.

And then we know that this type of volume signature increase usually will

suggest the presence of supply.

And because the price still goes up, we know that this is a value investor

selling on overbought condition.

They've seen the price at this point as overvalued.

And they are saying that there is a minor version trade built in right here.

could scale out and take some profits. And I hear a lot from institutional guys

that I would rather take a profit here. I would rather secure some profitability

and then, you know, concern about, you know, maybe getting back into the

position again.

That's just how they think.

We cannot argue with the efficiency of what they do.

We can only understand how they think, how they behave, how we could see

this on the chart, and what it means for us in terms of the traits that we do.

Because like in a lot of cases, and I was thinking a lot about this particular

trait here on the change of character, because I'm in...

two trades like that, and I was in Roku trade on the upside, and now it's

changing its behavior and it's exhibiting the same characteristics.

So I was thinking that one of the best trades is actually on the change of

character itself.

And obviously I'm trading that, but I wanna show it to you guys.

All right, so as the value investor sells, and then sells again at the

price, what happens that finally stops the price from further advances and then

the price deteriorates and breaks the trend oh when it breaks the trend the

force comes into the equation it's those institutional trend followers no longer

they see that the uptrend is being sustained and therefore they are

about their performance think about why they are um

the way that they act. They're always responsible to their clients

by the performance and the way how they get that performance.

So they want to be quick in the changing environment and get out of the

position, the one that shows some breaches in the structure or some

performance. And here we see that the price quickly goes down, creates a low,

low, slightly low, low, and that happens on the increased supply signature. So

we know that the trend followers are giving up their positions. They're

up positions later, later again, and then we have a general capitulation.

This sequence of how distribution happens on the way down

in the downtrend has been discussed in the best of Wyckoff in my presentation,

and I also will be discussing this in the...

like of trading course i will introduce those concepts also to you guys students

in this course as well because this is something new that i brought in uh you

know as a presentation all right where are

we we are 10 to 5 so we have about 40 minutes okay great we're going to go

the next exercise

And this is where I probably would prefer to have a volunteer if we have

just say yes.

And this exercise is going to be on the pricing volume. This is one of my

favorite exercises just because you have to think a lot about, you know, how you

analyze the chart and what, you know, what definitions you give to the

price of volume signature.

The task of this exercise is very simple.

You are given a price structure of a stock, and you also

have given the initial volume signature.

Those are your reference points.

I'm giving you the time reference as well and the price reference as well,

those are less important.

The key here and the task is to construct the volume signature

based on the observation of the price action.

So we know that as the price moves in a specific way, that's going to be done

with the specific increases or decreases or spike

increases volume signature.

And therefore, we want to figure out how that volume signature is going to look.

Now, it's a very valuable educational tool for this particular class.

Why is that? Because it just deepens your knowledge of the relationship

the price and volume.

And usually I have such a great feedback from students after this exercise

because they usually say, I've never thought about thinking of volume through

the price or thinking about the price through volume.

Because in the next class, the next exercise is going to be looking at the

volume signature and not having the price signature and then identifying the

price signature or approximating the price signature based on the volume

signature. That one is even more challenging than this.

So, and we're going to do this next time. So, any volunteers say yes and

unmute you.

And again, guys, you know, like, you know, don't stress out, you know, too

about, you know.

getting into the hot seat the key here is just to gain as much value as

from the class by volunteering by um participating by thinking

about these concepts and so on so forth and i don't have a volunteer oh my gosh

seriously we have so many people on the call step up step up all right let's go

to eric eric hey eric how you doing

Eric, are you there?

All right, so something with the microphone really quickly.

So while Eric is adjusting the mic.

All right, so what we're gonna do here is

we're gonna start looking at

the points of interest to us.

How would you analyze this?

How would you come up with a solution to this exercise?

Obviously, by looking at the price signature, you would notice some periods

volatility, diminished volatility, and those are going to be

identified by the volume signature in a specific way. Eric, are you there?

Hello, hello?

Are you there, Eric?

I heard something on the background, so something worked at some point.

Okay, well, let's wait for a little bit more, and I don't know, Eric, if

that doesn't work. Let's see if maybe someone else would like to step in.

If not, then I'm just going to do it myself.

Okay, Eric, yeah, so.

So some problems with the mic. Okay, anyone else?

Anyone else?

Going once, going twice.

All right, so let me just go through this myself, and maybe it will be

But I do anticipate, guys, that we're going to have a much better

when the actual class is going to...

be without any gas or anything like this. So I'll be on you on that.

All right, so as I mentioned, we're looking for the pockets of increased

volatility and we're looking for the pockets of decreased volatility.

We could find the increased volatility in the way how the price behaves,

in the increase of the spread.

And whenever I say increased volatility, I actually do mean increased volatility

on both sides. I do not refer to the increased volatility just for the price

moving down.

But when the price moves up, we also have increased volatility.

So where do we see that? On the upside or to the downside?

Well, I definitely see that the reaction like this most likely will have some

increased volatility.

Next reaction will have that type of volatility as well.

There is a lot of volatility that I would be expecting on the latest two

reactions at the right portion of the chart.

So these are the areas where most likely we would be expecting that

increase of volatility to be present.

We also probably would have smaller pockets of volatility where, let's say,

the price cuts down some support or overcomes a resistance.

And this is where we might have just some increased volatility. So where are

those points are going to be? So maybe something like this.

These are the points that we would have that increased volatility.

And I just want to notice those and just identify these points as the points

of interest that are going to have some kind of either volume

spike or some consistency in the volume signature.

And we want to understand that these are the points where the volume is going to

be the highest.

All right, next task.

What do we look for next?

Let's look at the volatility to the upside, right?

So where is that?

Usually the breakouts are going to have the increase of the volume signature. So

for instance, a breakout like this, a breakout like this. And please note that

I'm identifying the breakouts that are actually successful breakouts, right?

That had some kind of...

you know, volume signature behind it.

And most likely we could say that, well, at least at the minimum, we could

probably speculate that there was some increase in the demand

signature during this period of time where the, let's say the breakout has

happened, especially in the moments like this, where we have like three momentum

bars.

and they are breaking out of the meaningful formation, we're definitely

have the increase in the volume signature, and we're going to have some

consistency of that volume signature.

Maybe less so with the volume signature on the breakout.

breaks out, but then retraces back.

So still some consistency, but maybe relative to the previous volume

we're going to see that the demand is diminishing and the momentum is

diminishing as well.

We also want to note some kind of local volatility to

the upside actions at the end of the move.

So for instance, look at this.

Look at...

how this signature concludes.

It concludes with the run into the up thrust or climactic action.

And we're kind of expecting that this type of places are gonna have the same

type of volume signature where there's some kind of increase.

So this one right here as well.

And I'm just approximating here, so here, here.

A little bit more there.

This is an upthrust as well. And we see how the first two, and especially this

third one, has a lot of supply.

So something like this supply is present.

Okay, what else?

Well, we've talked about the momentum.

Here's the momentum as well to the upside.

So here we probably going to have a really decent demand signature.

It probably will be diminishing because that demand that comes in at this low

and on the way up, it's observing the supply that is below this low, below

So the majority of the volume signature is going to come before and then

at the peak, at the bottom, and then the volume signature usually is going to

dry up but it's going to stay relatively high relative to other periods just

because there is a lot of buying that is happening out of the oversold area

right here all right what else are we missing here um probably everything else

is going to be somewhat mediocre we could definitely go into some

other definitions as to how we would look at this volume signature

you know, in smaller chunks.

So for instance, if we would look more into this area, there are a lot of

testing that is going on. So for instance, a test like this, we usually

thinking that there is a diminishing volume characteristic at this particular

moment, something like this on the test.

We would be thinking that this test right here would also have diminishing

volume signature relative to the previous flow.

A quick reaction to the upside probably will have a demand signature behind it.

So together with supply and demand, the volume should have a spike in general as

it had a volume spike right here as well.

And then a series of tests.

And then those tests, obviously we're expecting the volume signature to

on those tests.

Breakout in the volatility. Look how this volume signature is going to

as well.

Slight increase in the supply is going to produce a move to the downside.

And then some kind of... Increasing the volume signature here just because this

is a stop in action. So institutions are coming in. They have short -term value

within the context of the trend, and they are stepping in and they are buyers

this point.

So that should increase our volume signature here.

Breakout, slowing of the momentum, slowing of the momentum. So some

characteristics, some diminishing characteristics.

All right, what else is interesting here?

A lot of volatility right here. So in general, it's not that the signature

is gonna be very extreme or different.

There might be some pockets of the increased supply.

But in general, it's gonna be higher supply with volume signature

that's gonna be increasing definitely.

on the first reaction increasing on the second reaction staying still high with

the demand all right so that's kind of like a very quick view usually during

class we would um have more time to discuss all of this uh in more details

let me grab my tools

here and um

Really quickly we'll go through this.

All right.

And we'll just analyze and post -analyze. And this is some of the

things that you should be doing on your own.

But I'm kind of showing you guys here as well in the classroom as to how do we

post -analyze. You know, what are the things that we would...

pay most attention to.

Okay, let me do that.

All right, great.

That was easy.

Here you go.

Here is our solution, and here is the solution to the exercise itself.

So the key moments here when you post -analyze an exercise like this is just

basically understand what is the main purpose of this exercise.

The main purpose is to understand better the relationship between the price and

the volume.

We want to understand that the price structure is the reflection of the

or efforts of multiple market participants, and the price

structure is the result of the winning effort.

And we definitely could be confused a lot with the volume signature itself,

because the volume signature does not necessarily reflect the supply and

per se.

It just reflects the number of shares that have been exchanged during this

particular day. It doesn't say anything to us about, let's say, supply

overwhelming demand.

It's only when we look at the price itself.

That's when we could make that conclusion.

And this is one of the biggest mistakes that beginner traders are making looking

at and analyzing the volume signature.

They see the volume increase and then right away they're assuming that this is

bad. Not necessarily.

In a lot of cases, we will see an increase in the volume signature that

a higher low, that creates the resistance of the price to continue with

short -term idea to the downside.

And therefore, we would conclude on the effort and the result part that demand

is present and not only present, it actually observes the supply and is able

capable of pushing the price higher.

Well, let's go through our...

and let's see what kind of mistakes we've made.

All right, so we said that pockets like this where we're gonna have the

undercutting of the support or overcoming of the resistance are usually

have those pockets of volatility where the volume is gonna increase.

These are the pockets that are gonna be produced

by the mean reversion traders.

They are seeing some oversold value here, so they're going to push the

and that's what's going to increase the volume signature.

These pockets are also going to be in line with the value investors, and

seeing some short -term value and some short -term pocket of volatility, so

they're going to come in and buy at this point.

We're still not seeing the institutional trend followers.

And they probably will come later on. This volume signature still has a lot of

value investor signature behind it.

But also on the ways up, like on this rally right here, or let's say on this

rally right here later on, we could see how institutions are buying and they are

pushing the price up. So they are not just stopping the price from the

reactions, but they are buying as well.

So it seems like our definition here was great.

Then we said that on the way up, we have some kind of momentum signature, so

some increases.

Before on the test, we're going to have a decrease in the volume signature.

We've done that, so that's great.

Check.

Then we said that most likely these two points are going to have an increased

volume signature.

Specifically, you know, and here I would have to think a little bit more as to

the more interesting question is why one higher than another?

So the only solution to this problem that I see comes

from the definition of the higher low.

So with the higher low, imagine that, you know, the same type of selling

here. And just because it's a higher low, then you need more demand in order

you to stop the price from moving further down now.

And therefore, you're going to have to have more demand to do that and more

demand to stop it and to push it up at the higher level.

So that could be the only explanation that I might have for you guys.

We said that on the way up, just because we're breaking out, we might have some

volume signature, some increase. So that was good.

the test is going to have decreasing volume signature that was great so this

area we went through we went through well so that's great

Then we said a series of tests is definitely going to have a much lower

signature, dimension signature, and we could go into even more details. I mean,

we could really go into bar -by -bar analysis. I'm not going into such

here just because we don't have a lot of time, but next class we'll definitely

do this more. We said that... We're going to have an increase of the

that's going to be associated with the increase in demand signature.

That's great.

Then momentum is going to diminish and we are not going to see a lot of the

volume signature.

So that's great as well.

Supply is going to increase specifically on this upthrust bar.

And that was actually not that bar.

This was, I believe, this bar right here.

uh relative to what we've seen here this is still you know slightly on the high

end but you know this is just one mistake that we have so that's great to

okay so and i'm wondering why wouldn't it expand looks like it should

right the price goes up on the intraday and then goes down like this so some

demand behind the move to the upside and then some supply behind that

There was a slight increase, but yeah, definitely this was a gap. So it makes

more sense. Plus it's below the support.

Yeah, I think this is a legitimate mistake right here. I should look into

Okay, so, and this is how I post analyze, right? So I just go through

scenario again. I want to understand what was the mistake.

So I don't think that the mistake was that we could not have that increased.

supply signature right here. I think that maybe just looking at this

right here that would suggest some dullness in an activity and therefore as

supply comes in it might increase but maybe not to the same you know degree as

let's say something like this that we have a more active supply that comes and

then definitely a gap in action below the support would produce some kind of

increased

supply signature there as a stop in action. Actually, that was the demand

signature right here, right, we said.

Okay, so that was actually fine.

All right, then we said increase in the momentum, increase in the volume

signature, the test is gonna have the decreased volume signature, so that's

great. Then that momentum, we've seen how the momentum is diminishing, so we

would assume that the volume signature is gonna go down as well.

and we see that and then into the climactic intermediate climactic action

going to have some kind of uh search in the volume and do we have

that we don't have that much that was a search

that's a search as well maybe not as pronounced uh so i'd

say that for me if i'm teaching myself

That would be a very important point, that the demand signature here is more

than the demand signature at the end.

And it's slightly diminished, but locally still increases.

All right, great.

Then we said we're going to have some kind of consistency in the way how the

price moves here in the volume.

Here we're going to have the climactic run and surge in the volume signature.

That's great.

We're going to have...

uh an increase in supply especially on this bar i said one two three yes

awesome three bars and then here's that search so we could see that from the

tail supply tail at the point of the resistance and then um obviously

in the signature here uh on the supply side then we said relatively

high supply, but it's probably, I mean, relative to the previous instances, but

it's not going to be increasing or anything. It's just going to be there.

then an increase in supply, obviously, as we go below the point of the support.

And we said that the majority of the price movement is going to be somewhere

here. And then the signature is going to go down, but it's still going to be

relatively high to the demand that we previously have seen.

And that's exactly what happens.

So I would say that maybe some minor mistakes that we had here.

This was one.

What was there as well?

There was another one. I keep forgetting where it is.

All right. But then overall, I would say that maybe like 90 % was okay.

One might ask, well...

And Zoltan here is saying, okay, unbelievable, great, wow, so cool, man.

know, in my question, in your minds, your question should be, how did you do

that?

Did you look at the chart before? Well, yeah, of course, I've created the

exercise. But you put a chart like this in front of me.

And I'm probably going to do the same way. Maybe I'm not going to be as good

because I've seen this chart and I did not necessarily pay attention to the

volume signature that much.

But the principles of analyzing and constructing the chart like this is

be the same.

I look at the historical references first.

and I look through the price signature, and I know that the price will behave in

a specific way to the efforts that are being exhibited by institutions.

As they buy and they sell, the effort increases, the effort decreases, and

produces specific price signature. I want you guys to know how to

decipher that relationship.

It's extremely important for us white collar fans to know this stuff.

So we will be practicing.

Specifically next class, I'm going to give you a different exercise, as I

mentioned. I'm going to give you the exercise where the volume signature is

present, but the price is not present. And you will have to construct the price

signature. That's going to be a lot of fun as well. And hopefully you guys have

enjoyed this.

All right, let's see what else we've got.

Let's vote a little bit.

I could show you some of my recent trades.

That's vote number one, and we could come back to some of the questions,

that you had.

So let me know what you guys would like to do really quick.

Then we'll go from there.

Trade, trades, okay.

Yeah, I kind of suspected that that's what it's going to be.

Yeah, recent trades. Okay, great.

Okay, so I'm going to show you the setups, and then I'm going to show you

where we are.

This is a little bit outdated. As of yesterday, I was showing this at WTC.

So as I mentioned, a gold trade.

that I'm in on both sides.

Long -term campaign has been established in April, May.

I was not hiding this. I was talking about this in WMD and all of the

even gave a presentation on StockCharts .com.

You could find the timestamp. That presentation was on April 4th.

One of the things, and I'll discuss this with you guys.

We all have tendencies as traders and investors of doing things in a specific

way. I have those tendencies as well.

One of my tendencies is that I observe the change of behavior earlier in

phases, in late phase B, and act on that.

So I'm actively working in my analysis and execution on correcting this

right? So my first position was here, and I had to wait for a whole month.

And even though this is a long -term campaign, totally acceptable to come in

into that like that because you're probing, probing, and then scaling in,

scaling in, creating a meaningful position.

And Eric is asking, right too early?

A little bit too early, and I'm describing my tendency here, Eric, so

little bit too early, but at the same time, I'm stating that for the long

campaign, when you put on the first probe, you should be okay.

Your risk should not concern you that much if the price slightly goes below

a sprint situation below the area of the support.

You should account for that.

So therefore, when out of this sprint, you have other situations and other

reversals, then you can add to the position, and that's how you start

your size.

So you could go, let's say, 25 basis points, 25, 25, 25.

You're already in the position, and then you could...

uh you know uh at on the way up uh here at the area of the overbought

condition and by the way this was also a really good intermediate call you know

a lot of people were thinking that this was already a distribution and we're

going to have a more of the trading range there is a lot of absorption here

way how all of those probes of supply probes are working we'll talk about this

as well

Out of the overbought condition, point of entry right here on the intraday, I'm

opening the position after the upthrust and after the test of the upthrust.

And I'm thinking that this is our phase C.

I'm adding to the position right here and then some bad news come

on the trade that pushes the price up. But look how it's being pushed.

The demand that pushes it is lower than on the previous rally. That's number

one.

The result is less as well. That's number two. And then the test

of that attempt to go up. And then again, guys, because you are more

here, I'm going to show you a different test, right? So if this was the attempt

to go up, this could be considered a test that happens.

as the higher high, but on the lower demand signature.

So we're seeing how demand has diminished.

And then we have a more regular test that is the lower high test.

And here we see, this is just a different session, so you can't really

it in the correct way, but still, this would be our

more legitimate confirmation.

So currently, let me just quickly see where the futures are.

So we are at 1496.

So we are somewhere here. Today was a good day, but we had some kind of

laborious movement to the downside. My objective is somewhere here, 1480.

So as we were moving laboriously, I started thinking that we might actually

uh a rally here into the area of the resistance so i started to scale out i

still have a position um in or in gold um a hedge position in gold and i still

have my long -term buy in gold so my goal here is just to uh

get my hedge out uh and hedge work nicely

because my equity did not go down drastically

on this move to the downside, and then just to recover from here, and even

consider adding on to the position on a more meaningful reaction.

So this is where we are with that.

And look at some of the PNFs here. So there are quite a few objectives here

you could find that are much lower than what I'm looking for. I'm looking for

the first objective, like 138 .88.

on the GLD, this is not the futures.

So we'll see how that's gonna go.

All right, next one, TLT, same concept.

I mean, reversion trade, every time we have this type of momentum run in TLT,

how does it end up?

It ends up as a pronounced low.

in the markets and then a subsequent move up.

And that's why I'm bullish on the market just based on this chart alone.

We just had a speculative run in TLT where the bonds are more attractive

to conservative investor from the point of view of the appreciation rather than

the...

the interest that is being collected on it.

So therefore, these times in the markets are usually going

to bring us to a significant oversold condition in the markets, which we just

recently had. It was not as significant as, let's say, a shakeout, but still it

had a lot of volatility.

It was quite difficult to trade that volatility. I was trading volatility.

I would say that I was slightly profitable rather than

really profitable.

This gold trade and TLT trade actually are quite

profitable at this point of time.

Okay, and let's see at this. Okay, so TLT right now at 141.

So we hit our first objective, and today I scaled out some of

the position, and I'm just keeping some to see if there's going to be some kind

of continuation of this move. The last move to the upside was pure speculation.

We could even see this from the volume signature.

There is none of this before that is happening.

And look at how the price behaves, overthrows.

into the old bought condition and my point of entry was right here on this

Look at what happens next, kind of like the same as with the gold. There is a

lot of effort after demand has decreased and supply has increased

to push the price up and yet what do we do?

We can't even touch the buying climax high.

and we can't overcome the upthrust that comes before.

So it starts acting as a test, and then the next test is even better because

it's on diminishing volume signature.

I had to wait here a little bit, and then everything was fine. So we are at

today here.

So this is actually both of the trays are...

I don't have a TLT as a long -term campaign.

I didn't have that.

Gold I do.

So TLT is a pure directional trade, but I'm trading it as a mean reversion

trade. And the only way of how this trade was created is from the

understanding of the overbought condition, understanding how the

are behaving, understanding how the...

Are the market participants going to behave in a speculative way? How that is

going to be shown on the chart in different ways, whether climactic way,

overbought way, test and action way, increase of the supply, demission,

way. You know, there are so many ways of how we could do this.

But the understanding of that and the practice that has been done before leads

to trades like this.

And those are really profitable trades.

Both the TLT trade and the gold trade have been really

profitable, actually on both sides, on the upside and now on the downside.

All right, 526. I think that we're going to stop here.

Lots of material that we've covered today, guys.

Let me see if you have any questions at this point.

So write those down in the question box.

Zoltan is saying, I have learned so much. Well, great.

Obviously, that's what we want.

So the key right now is to continue this education, Zoltan, right? So this is

just one class, you know, and obviously, you know, the examples that I've shown

are just examples of the work that we do here in this class.

So I would definitely recommend this for those of you who want

to have a very in -depth knowledge and in -depth skill.

As you could see, both the knowledge is going to be there in this class and the

skill building, as we're going to do this through the exercises.

And for those of you who would like to take this class, but...

you have not taken the Wyckoff Trading Course, which is the prerequisite,

do so. And we just started. We just had one session yesterday.

So you still are welcome to sign for the WTC course. So I would advise you

guys to do that.

And with that, thank you guys so much. I don't see any more questions. I see

only comments of thanks. And I thank you guys for being here.

and for going through this class with me and hope to see you either in this

class or in the WTC.

Thank you so much and bye -bye.