Original subtitles

Hello, everyone. Today is March 25th, and this is our session number 12 of the

Wyckoff Trading Course.

I have a lot of busy stuff here on the first slide. I don't like this.

I will redo this next time. It just doesn't look that great, but bear with

here.

So I've seen a lot of you started registering for the Wyckoff Practicum

and there was a question last week regarding the price.

I messed up a little bit, to be frank, guys.

So I came back to my team, and I asked them this question, and they corrected

me. So for the alumni

to take Wyckoff Trading Course, and those of you

who wanted to do this have already done so. So it's $4 .98.

minus $100 rebate, which was before March 20th, $398.

And then the practicum is actually the regular price that we have, which is,

I believe, let's see, I don't know those

prices by heart. I apologize. Hold on a second. Let me just double check even

for myself.

Yes. That's what I thought. Yeah, so the price is already $3 .98.

That was my confusion. So the price was the same with that discount. So it's $3

.98 for the practicum. That's the price for nine sessions. So just register at

that price.

Oh, hold on a second. This is for alumni.

Oh, I'm confusing you again, guys. I'm so sorry.

Okay, let's start again. So if you want to register for the practicum, 5 .98 for

nine sessions.

That's what it is.

And then the question was from the practicum alumni.

They have the price of 3 .98.

So that's it.

But if you feel like I've confused you, come back to me and just say like, oh, I

heard this price.

I will honor that.

So in any way, the knowledge is more important than the money, so just

and I'll honor any price that you heard of from me in the previous

session. Okay, next.

This is the question. Will the practicum be offered later this year, or is the

April -June timeframe the only one you're given?

In September, we will have the last practicum course.

And then we're going to switch into Wyckoff Trading Course Part 1 and

Trading Course Part 2. That's how it's going to be for the beginning of

September. But yes, in September, the last practicum cycle will start.

So you could do it either in summer or in fall.

Then the next, well, this is just a comment. It's just a comment. Okay,

You can read those guys by yourselves.

Next session, April 1st. And let's just see what we're going to

study. So today, so this is session number 13.

Yes, but this is on April 1st. So today we're finishing volume and price

analysis, and then we're going to go into comparative and relative analysis.

This is going to be a big deal today.

First, we're going to finish that XSS, and I'm going to go myself. I'm going to

go really fast.

So for those of you who are listening, on the video you have

to stop, just kind of take notes, think about it,

start again. For those of you in the live class, if you have a question, you

have to communicate that question right away as I'm going to go fast.

But we will be done with the group exercise today. That's our priority

one. And then we'll jump into that comparative and relative analysis.

We'll talk about this. I'll have a homework for you on that, which is going

be a lot of fun because we're going to combine comparative and price analysis.

And all of the studies today are going to be with Home Depot.

And then session number 13, we'll continue our comparative relative

conversation, and we will look at the top -bottom approach filtering.

This is where you look at the market, then you look at the sectors, you look

the groups, you look at the stocks.

And then we'll talk about some other ways of how we could get the information

for our selection process.

And there will be some homework on that as well.

All right.

Okay.

So I think that we've addressed all of the questions.

And now let's jump into our exercise.

So this is probably only one time today when we're going to go through the

exercise, and I'm going to ask you a question as a homework question as to

do you guys think is going to happen next?

What is the next short -term bias?

And have you thought about a long -term bias as well? So let's do this

first.

What do you think is going to happen short term? That's number one. What's

bias short term?

Bullish or bearish?

Are we in the sign of weakness or are we in the spring shakeout situation?

Okay, I see some answers are coming in. I want more.

Let's see more.

What do you guys think short -term is going to happen here?

Okay.

Okay. All right.

So we kind of maybe like 80%, 90 % short -term

bullish here. I see a lot of comments from you that.

This is a sprint or a shakeout, and we'll see

what's going to happen.

Okay, so then really quickly, the same question, only long -term. So now don't

think short -term.

We have seen at 61 how we looked at the sprint, and then it was not a sprint

anymore. It was a sprint -type action, but was not necessarily a sprint.

So when I'm going to ask you this question, think about the long term.

think about the whole structure here and think, what do you think at this point

the long term bias is?

Is it a distributional bias or is it an accumulational bias?

Up or down?

Okay.

So we are somewhere like 50 -50 here on the bias. Hold on a second, guys.

All right, I'm back. So we're 50 -50 on the long -term bias.

So let's just go through this.

All right, so here's our trading range as defined by the selling climax.

We see this very clearly through the volume signature, through the spread

analysis, and through the confirmation as to what has happened afterwards.

So we're seeing two types of changes of character. One is very big one to

46.

Another one is more local.

You know, we'll talk.

about this in the practicum as to how we actually label this what it means and

so on so forth but this is your phase a phase a is defined by the stopping

action itself selling climax by the change of character that happens

as a confirmation that the trend has been done and we are going from

from one environment which is the trending environment at downtrend to a

-trending environment, a trading range, a consolidation.

And then we have series of tests at 44 and at 50.

And that's the definitional book example of

phase A, where we have all of those elements.

We're not talking here about the preliminary support as an element of

but those...

Three main elements, stopping action, change of character as an automatic

response to the previous move to the downside, and testing of

that stopping action has happened.

So we are clearly in phase A right here.

Now I'm going to kind of quickly go through phase B. We said that 53 -55

was an upthrust in phase B.

look like a SPRINT type secondary test

as a sign of weakness in phase B still.

Now let me talk a little bit about this here.

Secondary test as a sign of weakness.

So we don't necessarily have in the method this

particular definition.

We don't necessarily have this definition either, spring type.

Usually Wyckoff would say that this is just a secondary test.

Now, the way how Hank was teaching the class, he would say that this is a minor

sign of weakness.

So combining those two ideas, that this is a test, but it acts as

a minor sign of weakness,

meaning that the minor sign of weakness would have some kind of either

emergence of the supply or deteriorating demand, which is poor.

And both suggest a retest.

That's the idea behind the minor sign of weakness.

The idea behind secondary tests is just testing what? Testing previous lows. So

testing phase A lows.

So in WTC, we just combine these two elements together.

So we know that it's a test, it's a secondary test, and because it shows

weakness, because the price temporarily commits like a sprint -type commitment

below the area of the support, we're going to say that either supply is still

present there or demand is not that active. In this case, it's all about

so demand is poor.

And we could expect some kind of retest that we've seen at 8081 and 1991.

Those are going to be the spots where this retest of 61 is happening.

So don't be confused about, you know, some of the

essentially non -conventional semantics that I'm bringing here in

this classroom.

I am interpreting the method in my own way. So I'm showing you my

interpretation. It doesn't necessarily mean that this is the original Wyckoff

label. And actually, Wyckoff did not have the labeling of a spring. Wyckoff

not have the labeling of the phases as well. That came later with some other

people from SMI. So it's kind of ironic how it all unfolds.

Oh, boy.

It just got to me exactly what has happened there in that conversation.

Okay, so 70 to 75, another upthrust.

And again, we were thinking that it could be phase C of

the distribution. But then if that was an upthrust in the distribution,

we would have a commitment below 61 on the sign of weakness, right? And we

see that. 80 and 81 is actually a higher low.

So being that a higher low, we're thinking, and then 90 coming as a higher

then we know that this upthrust between 70, 75

is just an upthrust still in phase B.

And sometimes that happens, right?

We're going to have multiple tests in some of the stocks at the support level,

multiple tests at the resistance level. So what does it mean? Why is it not just

three tests?

And this is a great example where I give you something, guys, a shortcut.

Remember what I told you about phase C, right? How are we finding phase C? Well,

this is test number three.

This is second point of fear.

So those are most common. common scenarios that should happen.

And then we're gonna have more uncommon scenarios like this one, where we are

gonna have multiple tests, more than three tests.

And we have to manage this, and we still have to mentally stay in the game if we

want to follow this particular instrument, this particular stock.

So in this case, there are actually more tests here.

So after us in phase B, then going into the higher low, again, we were thinking

maybe phase C, we did make a comparative study of the

supply between areas of 76 and 81 and compared that to the

area of 59 and 66.

And our conclusion was that

we actually have more supply between 76 and 81, even though it makes a higher

low.

And therefore, the rally is not going to be as great as we saw from 61 to 73.

That suggested another upthrust. We didn't know exactly what kind of

we're going to have.

So we go into the 90, and yeah, just a very urgent

distributional upthrust on a very high volume signature.

and it's just surrounded by supply on the previous two bars on the right and

the left. But the majority of it came at 19, and it came as an urgent supply.

That suggests it's a short -term trade, which we would be closing at the close

of this bar if we do not follow intraday action. If we follow intraday action,

then our close of this position, entry, another entry maybe another entry

somewhere here we would be closing it on the intraday basis as the price gaps to

the downside goes down first or goes up first tries to go up and then goes down

so then as it rallies back above the low of

61 this is where our intraday exit would be so exit intraday

And again, this is something that is being discussed in the more advanced

classes, but you could see the logic of this, right? So important support.

You have so much gain, you don't want to give it away.

And you're probably closing this position right away because you still

lot of volatility, you have a lot of participation, and it looks climactic.

goes through the support level, not only one, but two.

So as the price starts to come back, you realize that there is some value here,

short -term and maybe even long -term value if you're thinking accumulation

for institutions.

So as they're going to see this value, what are they going to do? Are they

to buy?

And this institutional buying is going to create a lot of momentum to the

upside, so you don't want to be caught up in that momentum on the upside.

So you want to liquidate the position at the extreme point of value for

institutions where they are starting to aggressively buy the stock.

So that would be your exit right here, and then exit at the close.

And we would be done with that short -term trade.

And at this point, this is what we're thinking.

We're looking at this whole labeling and we're thinking, well, 90 was supposed

to be a major sign of strength.

It didn't materialize. There was an urgent supply.

And it drove the price back to the lows of 40 and 61.

What could this be?

If this is a distribution and if 90 is a distributional top

in phase C, effectively an upthrust of the distribution, then we should have

a sign of weakness after this.

And we should explore whether this is a sign of weakness.

If this is a spring or a shakeout in phase C for the accumulation,

then we should see specific characteristics as well.

Not only that, not only the characteristics of the way of how the

down we would explore, but we also would be looking for a confirmation of

one over another.

This is going to come later because we're going to look at the retests and

going to see what kind of rally we're going to have. Is it a strong rally? Is

a weak rally?

how's the testing going, and so on and so forth.

And then we would seek that confirmation.

Strategy -wise, tactic -wise, if we are, let's say, on the major sign of

weakness, we would be looking for the last point of supply for the

of that. And this is where we could reestablish our short position.

We don't necessarily, that, you know, concern

that we got out of this position.

quick buck really fast and that's it for now.

Give us a sign that indeed this is a continuation of a

redistributional pattern and then we will get back into the position.

If this is an accumulation, there is too much volatility and still the testing

process needs to happen.

So let's go one by one with all of these thoughts.

So the first one was, is this a sign of weakness?

So how would we define that?

Well, first we would look at the character.

And then we would also look at the confirmation.

So on the character side, we're gonna say that a sign of weakness, by the

definition,

And again, guys, you know, I'm just going through some conversations on the

material that I'm presenting, so I'm just going to make those references.

Yes, Philip, I'm talking about 91, yes.

So this is the definition that I gave in WTC to our students.

A sign of weakness is going to be a reaction that travels

from, uh the highs of phase c throughout the

whole trading range and

overcomes and commits below the support cluster that

was created in phases a and b and then uh spends

time below that support

and reacts up in the rally that comes exactly to that support level,

not necessarily in the first rally, but could be on the second round.

So definitionally, we have that move to the downside.

That's great. We don't have the commitment, so reaction.

Yes.

Commitment.

Rally, we have to see what kind of rally we're going to see here.

Would it be weak or strong rally? That would act as that confirmation.

So there is no commitment to the downside.

That's very strange.

When is it that we see a non -commitment and what does it lead to?

So in the areas of the upthrust, we see the...

temporary commitment to the upside and then a reversal back into the trading

range. Temporary commitment above the latest point of the resistance and then

coming back into the trading range.

The same here at 90.

That's what a temporary commitment is or an attempt to commit.

We see this also in the spring.

Just one commitment at 61.

And then a quick reversal and price comes back quickly into the trading

Those are the springs and the up thrusts.

A sign of weakness as a sign of strength is going to show us an ability not

just to temporarily commit above, but to spend some time there. It's as if above

the resistance, there is a limited selling for a period of time that

some bullish sentiment, let's say for the sign of strength, still exists above

the resistance for maybe multiple closes.

The same for the sign of weakness. This is where we would see the

closes below the area of the support.

And one thing that we don't see here, it's that.

Look at the bar number 91.

opening the close almost at the same spot.

And it's actually close to one half of the trading range.

Again, the question here that we would be asking here, just based on the

definition of the sign of weakness, where is our closes for the sign of

weakness? And we don't see those.

So it's only if we would come back to this and we would see some closes below

the now even 91, then we would be... thinking that, yeah,

this looks more like a sign of weakness rather than a sprint.

But we don't have that.

And then on the sprint definition, we would see that temporary commitment

or attempt to commit.

An attempt to commit is gonna look like this.

where you have the intraday tail below the area of the support that tries to

commit on the close but only commits on the intraday level, and then the price

comes back above the support level.

And, oh, boy, do you see that, guys, how quickly this price comes back once it

goes into the oversold below 61, and then institutions are quickly picking it

and rallying it back.

So if we would be looking at this from a different perspective, imagine that

we're looking from this from the perspective of the close and not from

perspective of the highs and the lows on the bar.

Then our close would be right here.

And we would never even see this move to the downside.

Instead, this is the lowest close here, and then this is the lowest close here,

and then this is the lowest close here.

Instead, we would be saying that based on the close, we are actually making a

higher low here relative to this close, or relative to the close around 61.

So we are progressing each time with that close.

And we're actually progressing each time with the close to the upside as well.

Even though there are some, this is maybe, yeah, slightly up.

Even though those are up thrusts, but look at what's happening here with the

closes on the relays as well. So we're seeing higher highs, higher lows. So

there is a little bit of a hidden bias here.

It's not necessarily a technique.

but we just want to observe this, all right? So don't make it a part of your

plan to look at the trading range like this, because not always you're going to

have a spring like this.

And this is looking more like a spring, like that attempt to commit.

The only problem with this spring is the volume signature.

It's still very hot, but we know that with the spring number two,

we could have increasing volume signature and lower low in

that volume signature.

It's just that we want to see just either one day commitment, one bar

commitment, or just an attempt to commit, and that's exactly what happens

So now that we're thinking that this is a spring, we're thinking, okay, we're

glad that we are out of our short position.

If this is our dominant, hypothesis right now and we know that sign of

could happen in some different ways but if we're thinking that this is phase C

and this is the screen then we probably would be thinking that we could buy this

spring once volatility goes down

or we could even have

like a very small probe position here

And I would be probably thinking here like 1 tenth, 1

fifth, you know, that type of size.

So maybe like on the 1%, maybe to have 10 to

20 basis points.

Because we are realizing that this could be also the timing.

of when the price is going to start finally going up.

And this is a very important level now at 91.

This is probably where stop loss will not be hit if this is a true phase C.

Remember how we defined the uptrend? Where does the uptrend begin?

It starts at the low of phase C.

The phase C low is the lowest low in the uptrend.

not in the trading range necessarily, but definitely in the uptrend.

So therefore, we could be thinking here that this is the low, and we could take

that pro position. In fact, let's just do that.

And then we would be thinking that with all of this volatility, we need some

kind of testing.

So the testing will present us with other opportunities to come in. Then

obviously, if everything fails, then we are only...

10, 20 basis points on the loss and it's not a big deal.

Okay, so we're looking for something like this where the rally comes maybe

the area of the previous resistance here where there was some attempt to go up

and then it's gonna fail again temporarily.

Does this remind you of the current market?

Maybe.

And then depending on how much supply is going to come here, if supply is

increasing locally, then we're probably going to have some kind of consolidation

as a test.

If not, we're just going to have a high or low, and then we're going to go off

there. So we just need to see what's going to happen next. Okay, let's look.

All right, so we are going into...

92, right into the previous area of intermediate resistance.

We're happy to see that the price not just closes up on a spring, but it

actually has a progression to the upside after

that spring, after that spring bar.

And we see that

several closes that actually go up, they progress.

And that tells us that there is some buying and the volume confirms this.

at the buying here on these two bars and compare that to what is happening off

the spring low.

So this spring low by itself has a lot of demand behind it.

Why? Let's review this really quickly. Well, we're seeing

Relative to, well, relative to what?

Relative to what? Relative probably to the previous bar because we can't

bar number 90 and 91.

Those are two different contextual places of how supply and demand

Those are actually opposing analog bars. It's almost like a mirror image of each

other. So we probably would be just comparing and thinking that the previous

bar, let's just call it 90 .5, is the one that we're comparing to.

And we would say that the effort has increased tremendously.

And that effort was to the downside.

Yet.

What has happened with the result?

Price tried to commit to the downside and did not make a lot of progress on

close relative to the open.

Spread has increased.

Close to the spread is really bullish.

So the result to the downside diminished a lot.

So on extreme increase in effort, we're seeing extreme...

diminishing result to the downside.

Definitely bullish, and not only that, in a way, this type of bullishness where

it's being shown on the result side of things, suggests that we're gonna have a

significant rally.

That character defines the timing for us

of awe.

the potential beginning of the new move.

We also could compare that bar, that spring bar, to the previous bars of the

same quality where we saw some kind of momentum kickoff.

So here it is, here it is, here it is.

And we would be thinking here, okay, those are contextually analogous bars.

Why? Well, because they have characteristics of

stop in action, demand increase, and that's what gives the

kickoff to the momentum.

And it just happens over and over and over again.

And it happens in the area of the support, so that's why the context of

these bars is the same.

So what do we see here if we would compare all of these four bars? Let me

just... show you the volume signature as well because this is going to be the

key.

We're seeing that 91 is actually

the best bar of them all.

Just because we're seeing an urgent demand coming in and producing the

biggest result on all of those bars.

And what is the result? Well, from the low of the bar to the close. This is the

largest distance that has been covered.

From the low to the close.

From the low to the close.

From the low to the close.

And it happens on a big volume signature.

And it happens at the very interesting contextual place here. We're seeing...

what we could describe maybe as second point of fear.

Well, it definitely looks much more fearful than anything that we've seen

in the trading range. It probably reminds us more of the actual downtrend

we have had before from the 30s here into the 40 and

41. This looks the same.

So it's very interesting to observe the whole downtrend there from the 30s to

the 40s, compare that to the 90 to 91, and see that 90 to 91 actually

does not progress to the downside.

And this is, again, something that we've been discussing throughout this

exercise for so long.

Something's going to look extremely bearish, but in reality, it's

extremely bullish.

And I think that conventional technical analysis just doesn't clearly define

that contextual problem for us. And that's where Wyckoff method has this

We are looking at the progress of the effort and

progress of the result.

And as the effort increases, but result decreases dramatically, not only it

gives us an indication of the bias, but it also suggests the timing

that it's now, and also it suggests the character on urgent institutional buy

-in that the next rally is going to be substantial.

Okay, well, if next rally is going to be substantial, then where would it go to?

Well, definitely above 90 if this is a substantial rally.

If it's going to go above 90, then we're probably talking about a major sign of

strength rather than an upthrust, although we saw how this upthrust has

happened. I mean, look at that going above so much and then coming back.

So we still have to keep this in mind. We would be looking at the character

which the price moves. That's number one. Then we would be looking at the

commitment.

That's number two.

And then we would be looking at some kind of backing up action as a

that this was a sign of strength.

That's going to be point number three. So keep this in mind, guys.

And then the second target, so the first target is probably going to be above

90. We need to commit above 90. And then we could be thinking about a long

-term...

resistance here and that could come into play

and that could provide maybe a long -term resistance so the thinking maybe

price as target number two will come here either be rejected here or would

overcome as target three and obviously each target has low probability for us

right or high probability as we see the character develop

So we're thinking maybe between T1 and T2, something like that.

This is where we would go. This would be a really good major sign of strength,

especially if the price spans multiple closes above 90.

Okay, so now we're kind of figuring this thing out, and we have a small probe

right here.

We're looking at the latest bar, 93.

It doesn't have a lot of supply.

So that's great because we're definitely seeing that supply has

significantly went down.

So there's not a lot of selling at this point of time.

And if we don't have a lot of selling,

at some point, we're probably going to stop this reaction.

There's a question here from Philip.

Isn't this an ease of movement bar?

Ease of movement bar is going to be on dimension supply signature with the

commitment below the last commitment to the upside.

So, and then also, isn't it 92 shows that

supply is going up? Yes.

Well, both of them show all of that.

But here is the key.

These two bars are related to what?

To the whole structure or to just the local substructure?

What's going to happen after the low of the spring?

We are going to have a move to the upside that's going to meet some

Supply is going to increase locally.

And it would suggest what?

it would probably suggest some kind of reaction.

That reaction is going to be judged on the presence of the supply.

And then if supply is diminishing, most likely this is

going to create a higher low and the reversal.

And then the confirmation of that is going to come somewhere here on the

breakout, which we want to buy.

And if supply is increasing and price still goes

down, that's when we're going to look at this as a bearish scenario.

So therefore, locally, what's happening here?

At 92, yes, there is an increase of the supply.

And we were anticipating this because of this bar. So here it is.

Supply is increasing and we are stopping.

And as we go down, what do we see?

Well, we see that supply is actually somewhat average for this area,

or one of the lowest supplies in this area. Because when we look at all of

the red bars, it's clearly on the lowest side.

So as supply goes down, and we might be thinking that there is an ease of

movement here, ease of movement is usually going to be a lower supply.

and diminishing demand.

So that's just a short -term rally.

We still could go up to this point somewhere here and still could create a

higher low out of this.

This type of reaction would suggest an accumulation that we would do something

like this.

If the supply could only take us down maybe to this low right here.

then it would suggest that if you have a trading range, it's probably going to

be much shorter just because supply is lower.

And then we're going to have a breakout.

And then we're going to have a breakout.

So I think it's a question here of the duration of that test. That's number

And secondly, if that test fails.

It's not that your comments, guys, are not correct.

And, you know, so I'm really happy that you see this.

Increase of the supply is a movement.

But that only suggests a short -term reaction for now.

And only if it fails, then we would be talking that, yes, indeed, you know,

was an emergence of the supply or something like this.

Okay, let's see what else.

Okay, so from Eric, why that bar? And I'm assuming, you know, 93, so give me

some references to the bars.

Why that bar is too big if there is a diminished supply and not small?

Yeah, so again, we could have result increasing

on diminishing effort, right? So we have diminishing

effort here to the downside, and we have increasing result

to the downside.

So that suggests a short -term reaction.

That's what we are looking for.

Once we understand that the reaction is going to happen, we want to understand

what is the character of that reaction.

All right, from Charles.

What about the probability of three up bars ending in 92 being short covering?

Is there a signature for short covering?

Yeah, really good question about the short covering. And indeed, think about

of the professionals.

or professional traders that are opening positions everywhere right here.

So all of the spots that I'm indicating, those are going to be where a position

could be opened on the way down.

So they are extremely heavily short.

Actually, one of the traders in this stock is going to be me.

I'm loving this type of situations where very quickly we could

gain a lot of profits.

And it's only because we're seeing this opportunity and we understand the

character with which the price is going to travel. So we are extracting the most

optimal value through the bias, timing, character, instrument,

leverage.

So what I would be doing here, I would be closing on the way up.

And that's what's going to bring, as Charles suggests, some short covering.

But look at this signature right here. This is the second largest volume

signature on this bar, on this chart.

So do you think this is just a short covering?

It cannot be.

It has to be more than that. It has to be a very strong institutional presence

on that bar that reverses such a heavily bearish sentiment.

in the market at this point of time.

So that suggests some institutional presence, not just of the short

-term professional trading, but long -term institutional trading.

Okay, but obviously, yes, there will be some short covering, which will add to

this bar as well.

Okay, so I think we're going a little bit too much into the details here, but

let's address this.

From Philip, can there be such absence of demand after such huge demand in 91?

Why is that?

Big rally needs big demand.

Why in such disappearance of demand so early?

Well, look at 61, right?

What do we observe here?

Demand comes in heavily.

Actually, take 40 as well and 41 too.

Demand comes in heavily.

And then what happens with the demand signature?

Nothing, right, until it increases here, until it actually goes into the second

stage of the advance and third stage of the advance. So this is the first stage.

So during the first stage here, we really only see that institutions were

on the way down, on the way down, and then on the way up, on the way up.

it. Nothing else.

Here, it's the same.

Buying on the way down, buying on the way up in one bar.

And then there is some buying here.

And by the way, that bind, if we would be comparing this bind to everything

else, what we've seen, so let's say here's another bar like that, right? So

bind on the way down and then on the way up.

The next two bars, look at their volume signature.

The next two bars or three bars, look at their volume signature.

The next two bars, look at their volume signature. And look at the analogous

bars here.

Where would you say, Philip, that the demand is better, that the demand is

present, that the demand is actually resulting in the better progress?

Probably in the last case, as you say. Yes. We see in both the

volume signature increase, suggesting that demand is more at this spot than in

the previous momentum kickoffs.

That's number one.

Secondly, we're seeing that demand is actually producing a better result.

We're seeing a better progression from the latest close up

in the same analogous type of bars.

So that tells us that not only the effort behind buying is

increasing at this spot, but the result, the actual

progress to the upside is being allowed more. There is more participation by

institutions. There is more urgency from institutions, and that suggests that we

are there. This is the timing right now.

All right.

Another question from Nilesh. Volume does not match with any of the volume

analysis schematics we studied earlier for accumulation, or am I reading the

volume progression?

through phases incorrectly.

Actually, it matches perfectly.

Okay, Nilesh, I'm gonna unmute you really quick.

So what is the volume phase analysis schematic that

you are referring to?

Let's start from there.

Sure, so what I was looking at is, so phase A volume, right, we are at a

and then in phase B,

Phase C that we are suspecting the last 91 is to be phase C. So it's kind of

increasing throughout, right?

Yeah. So you were looking for this, something like this, where we have a

long -term decrease of the supply from phase A

to C. But we are seeing maybe a local

increase of the supply.

from phase B to C.

That's going to be the most common volume signature.

But we also had some variations. Remember, there were four variations on

supply signature in the accumulation.

One of them, and I'm going to mute you here. Thank you, Nilesh.

One of them was this.

Phase A, significant volume signature, stopping volume signature.

And then we go into phase B. We could have a variation of diminishing volume

signature or even increasing into phase B.

And then one of the most difficult variations was the increase of the

signature and increase supply signature going into phase C.

Usually, such increase of the volume signature going into phase C would carry

distributional type of quality.

But yet, with this

result signature, we are not producing a result to the downside.

And that's that variation that is so confusing because on the volume side, it

looks more like a sign of weakness rather than an accumulation.

So you have to look at the result, and this is the result that we see.

uh now let's yeah just come back to those different variations and we did

exercise remember where we had the same stock the same kind of structure at

different in different trading ranges and then directionally it went different

ways okay but good question okay um

okay

All right, so now let's just say I'm taking this as phase B. This will be in

phase B, but remember, we want to look at what? We want to look at the supply

signatures at the areas of the testing, right? Because this is where supply

comes, and we want to see what comes there.

So here's our volume signature throughout these areas.

And it still increases, right? So we still have that increase into faith.

Okay,

what else?

Okay, Armand is saying, okay, so if 91 is a spring on a

huge volume, it is a sign of weakness.

Okay, again, volume characteristics has to be combined with the

result characteristics, with the price characteristics.

And I agree with you that sign of weakness would occur on the increased

signature.

But also a sign of weakness would commit below the support, and we don't see

this commitment. A commitment below would be the close being below.

the area of the support.

All right, guys, I think that we are done here. We've spent too much time on

this, so let's just go on.

I really would like to finish this exercise today.

So we were expecting a reaction based on 92 and 93 reading.

Here is this reaction.

Here is this reaction.

Would you say that it's a bullish reaction or it's a bearish reaction?

And do you guys see how it's dangerous to make any long -term assumption about

92 and 93 at that point?

Because you don't know if supply comes in.

The key is not to react on the supply, right?

I'm trying to think about the analogy. The first thing that comes to my mind is

rain, right? So if it drizzles, it doesn't mean that it's going to storm.

But you know that it's going to rain.

So you want to make a judgment as to what kind of rain you're going to have,

don't know, maybe in the next 30 minutes, and make that assumption about

whole rain.

So it's the same thing here.

You know that supply comes in. There is a drizzle of supply.

And you have to make a judgment of what kind of

reaction we're going to have when it occurs.

Not before.

And we see with the down bars not being able even to commit

below the low of the bar number 93.

And this bar right here is an inside bar, so we can't really consider this a

commitment to the downside.

So this was 93 on the ease of movement was the biggest result to the downside.

Bullish or bearish?

If this is the only thing that supply could do at 92 to stop that rally

of the 91 spring, then I think we are okay. We're not coming

back even, what, one half of the move to the downside.

It looks structurally very bullish.

If you also want some kind of confirmation on the character, look at

Spread is starting to diminish.

And then looking for the confirmation on the volume signature, volume is

starting to diminish as well.

What does that tell you?

Well, it tells you that supply is diminishing. There is no selling.

And the price stays in one half of the

range.

of the long -term range after such a volatile event.

What does it mean? This means that whatever buying has come at 91 and on

subsequent four bars, that buying is substantial and we don't have

any more selling.

So therefore, we would be thinking of adding to our position.

And this is the test. Swing 27 is our test.

So this is where we want to spend the majority of our tactical time.

Where would we be opening the position?

Bar 94 is an interesting bar for us because if we would compare

94 and 92,

We're seeing that the effort slightly went down, and yet the result has

increased in the way of how spread has expanded.

So we could say that, yes, we could buy this bar at the close.

Then we also could say on bar 94, we see a little bit of the supply tail, and

effort is somewhat elevated.

So therefore, we are going to have another reaction.

So we could buy off that reaction.

And we could do that on the way down.

And we could do this on the way up. Well, let's say that we are more

conservative. We need confirmation.

So maybe what we could do is we could get into the position here with the stop

buy or here.

This would be the level based on the high of the bar 94.

And based on the last red bars high, this is the area where we would be

thinking. if the price goes through this area most likely we are breaking out

above 92 93 94.

so therefore we want to buy more so we bought in here we bought in here

we want to buy in here we probably want to buy in here again on the way up as

we're thinking 92 and 93 could be analogous to 81 i'm sorry 82

65

And 42.

In all of these cases, when we had a move up, a test, a breakout,

this is where the price continued to go up.

And this was the beginning of the move.

And look at where we are starting that move, right? If we would break 92,

this would be equivalent of 40.

2 and 45 breakout.

And that suggests that with the

anticipation that the character of the rally is going to be better,

that suggests that we're probably going to go into a major sign of strength.

So therefore, we are extremely aggressive at this spot. We basically

anything. on the way up that gives us some kind of opportunity to get into the

position.

All right, let's look at bar 95.

What do we see?

And what would we be comparing this bar to?

So effort is going down.

What happens with the result?

Let's see what you guys are going to answer here.

Effort goes down, what is the result of this bar?

Increasing, yes, of course, it's increasing.

It's committing to the upside, right? If we would take this volume signature,

this volume signature right here, this one has some supply so we can't really

use it, so this was the highest, we might be thinking, ha the breakout but

effort is going down so we don't have enough demand to commit to the upside

then at 96 we definitely see that right so 96 commits up above 95

and above 92 in such way that negates you know overcomes all of the demand

that we have in this area so that just confirms that That confirms the

but let's come back to 95. I think it's a very interesting bar.

What you would be comparing this bar to?

You probably would love to find some analogs that are similar contextually.

84 would be that analog.

67 would be that analog.

45.

would be that analog.

Where is it? Right here.

To a certain degree, well, no.

Let's just deal with all of those.

Okay, so why 89, somebody said 89,

and 52 are not going to be those analogs. Well, again, stop in action,

rally, test.

Stop in action, rally, test.

Stop in action, rally, test.

So 89 is different in that context because it's closer to the resistance,

it's not off the support.

It's not the initial momentum.

It's a continuation of that momentum. So you can't contextually compare those to

95. So what do you see at 95? Let's just generalize everything.

Look at the volume signature.

Highest volume signature.

Highest effort.

Well, I wonder what this highest volume, highest effort produces.

Does it produce the best result?

I would say so.

It is the best result.

Again, It's the weight of evidence that we are accumulating

as we are starting to decipher all of the price action of 92.

We are observing institutional presence of

higher quality and much bigger size.

based on the character with which they are buying, we're saying that there is

some urgency to buy.

And we see this through the analogous work that we've done at 92,

I'm sorry, at 91, at 92, 93, and now at 95.

And at all of those spots, it's just screaming at us that institutions are

really interested in the stock.

urgency for them to be in this position right now so that suggests that we are

probably most likely are going to have a major sign of strength and we need to

get more into this position if we're a long -term investors and even if we're

short -term investors then we would be you know trying to get in into this

position yes relative to let's say previous bars that we have had where

was present. So demand, demand, demand, demand, demand.

We're seeing some kind of diminishing demand signature, and we're seeing that

the price actually extends easily to the upside.

So there is this ease of movement here, that's for sure.

We said that 96 was the largest volume signature that overwhelms all of the

demand bars, confirms that breakout.

It's just that confirmation comes on the next bar, not necessarily on 95.

but definitely a much easier movement than to the upside.

Okay, let's look at 96.

96 is also a very interesting bar.

Why? Well, because look at the volume signature. It's the highest volume

signature. It kind of reminds me of the 90.

All right.

And plus, we know that supply usually comes at this level.

This whole area right here.

I'm just going to do it like this.

Look at the previous attempts to stop the price from going up in this area.

number 46.

Bar number 48.

52.

53.

54.

55, all of those have supply signatures.

70, 71, 72,

70 whatever,

and then 73, all of those have supply signatures.

85, 87, 89, 90,

one behind 90, and one after that.

All of those bars have some presence of institutional selling.

This could be just professionals doing a mean reversion trade. This could be

institutions getting into the position and then selling some of the position.

This could be just trading in general on institutional side when they see that

the price is in the overbought.

part of the trading range.

What are they gonna do? They're gonna sell because they know that they could

extract even a little bit out of this move, but on their big size, that's a

percent and they could just go away from that trade at some point.

So 96 is the bar where supply comes.

So here is a question for all of you and let's just kind of like

This is going to be a repeat, but I think this is where, you know, I'm

through some of your comments might be the mistake.

What do you think? Supply definitely comes on 96.

So what do you think about this supply?

What does it mean?

Does it act? in the same way as in the previous positions in the previous cases

and this is by far probably you know one of the

largest supplies probably the highest supplies was at 90 and then this is

probably the second spot where supply is extremely heavy

Okay, well, let's look at that.

And again, I think that it comes maybe from just a conventional technical

analysis. Whenever I hear from students that, well, supply is there, so this

means that there is selling.

Yes, but there is always selling.

There is always somebody who's buying and selling.

So then how would the price go up if somebody is always selling?

It's all in the way of how supply is being observed.

Whether it's going to be observed or not. So supply increase.

does not necessarily mean right away that we're going to have a stop in

I mean, look at 70.

Supply has come. Supply has increased.

We see this from the volume signature.

Does it mean that the price right away went to the support level? No. It

requires time, right? So change happens through time.

So if supply increases, we're looking basically at two scenarios.

Is supply being observed?

and then the price, meaning that the price will go up, or, and this is the

here.

Let me see who gave me this comment.

Philip, yes. So this is the key here. Or would supply produce

an increase in the result to the downside?

If that's the case, then the price will go down.

So what do we see here?

First of all, the price gaps up quite significantly.

And we really did not see this before. From 95 to 96, this is where the price

opens. This is where the price closes.

So the intraday picture for this, and I just wanted to show you this gap. Why?

Well, because there are no other gaps around this area. I mean, 89 kind of

resembles in the spread.

the gap in the spread that's for sure uh but there is nothing else really so gap

by itself becomes a bullish sign so this means that overnight institutions are

trying to buy maybe it was an event like earnings event and we're observing the

increase of the volume signature like that so we open with the gap

and then what do we do next we go down to the low

and we get them to the area of the previous bar, which becomes intraday

But then we rally back.

So if this is the close of the previous bar, so let's say close of bar zero,

open of one.

So as we get through this level, somewhere here, you have to become

again on the intraday level.

And then we are just closing like this.

So whatever supply has come and increased, what happened to it? Has it

observed by the end of this day?

Most likely.

We came back to the close and we are kind of like having

one of the highest closes historically here.

Where else have we closed?

higher. We closed higher at 74 and we closed higher at 89. There were no other

higher closes on up bars that we've seen so far. And that happened on the

extreme volume signature where we know that this volume spike tells us that

supply has increased and yet we are closing bullishly.

Closing bullishly.

I don't know if this is the correct word, bullishly, if there is such a

We close bullish on that bar.

Doesn't that tell us something?

Isn't that a great piece of information where so much supply comes?

Again, think about this. So much supply comes on this bar.

supply comes in this area where supply has come before and yet such a favorable

close. What does it mean?

Lots of buying behind.

And with such a big volume signature, who's buying?

Only big institutions could buy at this point.

We can't exhaust it. They are out of this position. They don't want to see

stock because there is so much emotional pain about it. All of these ups and

downs, all of these decisions.

We, on the contrary, are going to be adding to this position on this bar if

we're extremely aggressive. So I'm showing you all of the aggressive kind

like entries here.

So the first intraday entry would be here, then at the close.

The next entry would be at the close here.

Kind of aggressive conservative, so to say.

Another entry here.

another entry on the way up, another entry at the close, and then another

on the intraday as we go up right here.

We could also even consider opening the position here. It's still a bullish bar.

It's still a sign of strength bar.

I could give you this bar in a slightly different way.

Look at this.

How about this? Would you be buying this type of bar?

Would you be buying the clothes of this bar?

I probably would if it would look like that, but I understand that, you know,

the clothes here is just at the same level, and it's just the intraday

came in a different way.

That's it.

Okay, well, let's see what happens next.

Guys, and I think that at this point, I'm just going to go because all these

questions are stopping me a little bit. So let's just kind of go through this

whole thing, and then let's see what kind of questions we have at the end.

Okay, so we're looking at 96.

We are in the position bar 97 has, again, the highest volume signature.

Look at this volume signature.

What are you guys seeing here in this area that the volume is so high?

I think that for some of you, there might be a thought, well, the volume is

high, this is a volume spike, so supply has increased.

That's correct.

The next question that you should be asking, well, if I'm so bearish, then

me look at what? At the result.

And what is the result of this?

we are committing above all of the levels of the resistance, and we have

progression of the closes above the resistance, which suggests that this is

indeed a major sign of strength.

One of our targets could be a stopping target for us at

100, and we would be thinking that, yeah, indeed, we might be stopping here.

But the price has committed significantly to the upside.

We have a very substantial profit at this point of time. Think about all of

these positions that we have opened.

And here the decision is, what do you want to do at this long -term

Do you want to sell or do you want to hold?

I don't think that anybody in the group should be thinking of buying here.

because we just came out of the trading range, and that suggests some kind of

reaction. We just hit that long -term resistance, so there is no buying here

us, but it's just a decision of whether we are holding this position or whether

we are exiting it as a swing trade.

I will let you think about this on your own.

What else are we seeing here?

Well, let's go through the structure now.

Now that we're seeing a potential major sign of strength, 91 is

not just a suggestion, but it's probably already becoming more

of the reality, the way how the character of the sign of strength has

The character, not the definition of the sign of strength.

would suggest that the up spread is going to increase, the volume signature

going to increase, the demand is going to increase, and we're going to have the

result to the upside increasing a lot.

Those are the characteristics of the sign of strength.

Those are not definitions.

Usually students come and when I ask what is the definition of the sign of

strength, they give me the characteristic.

The spread should increase, the volume, the demand should increase.

This is not definitional.

This is just...

This is just the characteristics.

And we see that characteristics suggest they confirm a major sign of strength.

So if this was C, we said that this was A.

Everything in between is B.

And now we're just waiting for what? We're waiting for some kind of coming

into the trading range, depending on where we're going to come. Again, look

how I am.

devising different structural strategies.

And this is where I see today where some of you still need to improve.

Just thinking in terms of, yes, supply is coming in, it's bearish, but it's

bearish short term. It's not necessarily bearish long term. Long term will need

to prove itself that it's going to be either bullish or bearish. We're seeing

more confirmation of being bullish.

that institution's on the long -term bullish side than a short -term, than a

long -term bearish side. So therefore, you're thinking different scenarios.

Would the supply push the reaction to 90, or would it push

the reaction to maybe like 53, 55, something like this?

And it just depends on that type of the reaction, what we're going to have here,

what kind of recovery we're going to have.

We could have different type of structures, a more bullish structure, a

bearish structure. So we just have to go and just see what's going to happen.

But we definitely know that reaction is going to come, not just structurally.

Look at the volume and price analysis.

Big spread, diminishing spread, diminishing spread at 100.

We are seeing that the next attempt to commit to the upside, less progress on

the close, suggesting...

the diminishing momentum, and then a slight increase in the volume signature

suggests that supply has come.

Also, supply has increased on the previous bar. So we have two bars where,

rather three bars, 98, demand is going down, 99, supply is increasing,

100, supply is increasing.

The reaction is imminent.

Here we are. We're seeing next bar.

And it has that struggle between the demand and supply.

We see that in the boss structure.

And the volume signature is relatively high. So if we were thinking that this

was an attempt to push the price up, and all of them are, right? 97, attempt to

push the price up above 90.

98, attempt to overcome all of this resistance at 1997.

It did so.

Then 100 to push above again. It did so.

101, another attempt to push up off the initial selling

on the intraday basis.

And we cannot do this. We can't go higher.

The next two bars, diminishing supply signature and yet ease

of movement to the downside.

on two bars, suggesting that demand is exhausted.

And where is it exhausted?

Again, in the area of the long -term resistance.

Another way of thinking about why this exhaustion of demand happens is that,

think about where institutions are buying, like huge institutions.

They were buying here, here, here, here.

here, and I'm just outlining the biggest bars.

And then after that, they are done.

They are not buying anymore.

This is the value zone for them right now.

After that, everything, what comes next, there are some institutional buying

here, but this is more of buying of the late institutional

buy. They are going to be in a very peculiar position when the buying climax

happens. And that's why I always say that the breakout of the major sign of

strength is not a great way to buy this. Imagine that you bought right on the

breakout. Where is your stop loss? Really quickly tell me, where is your

loss?

On the breakout here, if you are buying the breakout.

Is this maybe like this bar right here, 99, the low of 99 just being

slightly lower. Let's just put it right here, right? So this could be that

place.

So the amateurs are going to feel really good on the way up to 101.

They're going to be in profit. But then let's just see what's going to happen

next.

They would be out of this position.

Even if you do one half of this bar, or let's say maybe just slightly

below the close of this bar, you're still out.

So therefore, think twice of doing the breakout buy trade

on a major sign of strength like that.

And even Eric is saying below 97.

Yeah, that's a good...

Good position, but even this, you could see, this is very close.

You could have gotten out, be gotten out at that point just on some kind of

spring. It's not like it's going to close below it. It's just going to

you out like this and then come back, and you could be out.

So there is no reason to buy at this spot just because of what comes next on

potential backing up action.

Well, let's look at the backing up action itself.

So what do we see? Well, we see how closes are progressing to the downside.

And yet, there is slowing of that progression at the end. We're seeing

signature going down.

And that is, if we would take this whole major sign of strength rally,

That happens into one half of that rally.

That looks extremely bullish. Why bullish as well is because demand is

so big in the comparison to the supply.

Demand dominates supply at this point, not only on the volume signature, but

also on the result signature as well.

So we're still long -term bullish, and we're short -term.

at this point we're going to be short -term bearish. Why?

Okay, well, we're thinking this is the largest supply that came after this

reaction, so we see an increase of the supply.

That usually dictates that we are going to have some kind of test.

So that test, after a higher high, probably going to come as a higher low.

And higher high here is actually a really good sign.

because it takes less of an effort to have a higher high

this is extremely bullish this tells us that there is no selling

at this resistance level all of the supply has

been observed and whatever supply is left You know, that's what's going to

us down. So we're probably going to have a higher low rather than a lower low in

this range. And we're probably going to have this higher low, and then we're

going to go up.

So we will have to think, you know, tactically as to how we're going to get

into this position and increase our size.

Well, one of the things, obviously, right here, so this would be a point of

entry. This could be a point of entry.

So we could have one, two, three, four.

five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10.

So this is potential entry number 10. And I'll outline them later.

But if the price comes back to the high low, we could have somewhere entry right

here as well. So we want to load out because we've seen that institutions

definitely want to get in into this position very badly and very fast.

there is an urgency with which they are getting into this position.

And this means for the long -term trend, this is going to be extremely bullish.

Think about this as well.

Who got in in this trading range?

I mean, it's been developing for quite some time. We don't really see a lot of

institutions. This is more selling.

We don't see a lot of institutions coming in into this position until bar

91.

So if early institutional money managers got in into this position on

the way up, think about late institutions that are still not in this

And what if this position is just going to go up? It's going to outperform the

market.

I'm sorry, there is a...

comment here from lee that my voice breaks up sometimes so that might be a

connection guys i'm sorry i apologize hopefully that just fully you know and

let me know if the connection is not that great or i need to adjust my

microphone or speak up or something like that so think

about those late institutions that

Still not in this position.

As the price starts showing absolute and relative performance, what do

you think is going to happen next?

All of those institutions would want to be in this position, and they're going

to start buying, and that's going to produce a big move to the upside.

So let's see how the backing up action develops.

Okay, so we're seeing that hesitation.

Bar number 108 shows some synchronicity where the volume is

increasing and the result is increasing to the downside.

So that's bearish, but that's bearish on the short term.

This short -term bearishness cannot negate the long -term bullish picture.

Why? Well, because think about all of the institutions that bought at 91 and,

you know, and throughout 100.

Did they get out of this position at 108?

Do you see this in the volume signature?

Do you see this in the result?

No, we don't see that.

So therefore, we are assuming that it's going to be a short -term bearish

reaction, and we said that, yeah, we probably would be looking for some kind

high or low.

109 confirms that the reaction is going to happen. The volume signature goes

down relative to the previous demand and does not produce a commitment above the

high of bar number 108, the previous bar.

So that suggests that the demand is 4. There's just no demand at this point,

short term, and we're going to have a reaction.

We're still thinking high or low reaction. Let's look at that.

Here's that reaction, and I love 111.

Why? Because on a lot of volume signature, it's kind of like the same as

104.

We have those spikes, but what happens?

There is buying into the close.

There is buying into the close.

Even 101, there is buying into the close. 99, there is buying into the

96, there is buying into the close.

This is what we would love to see on a bearish day that we could possibly

have. 91, the same, buying into the close.

at 111 is actually extremely bullish bar, and we're looking at the

of the closest to the downside, we're still in this area.

We're still at like one half of the rally between 107 and 104.

And maybe I'm just thinking,

The volume is so confusing because it hides the signature of both demand and

supply, and it's really hard for us to see that. We have to develop that skill

of seeing that.

And then the price candles also not a great representation of

what actually happens by the end of the session, right? Because you look at the

tail, and a lot of you are becoming...

somewhat bearish.

But we have to see the high and the low because that defines the price action

for us during the day and that gives us an information.

It's a very valuable information that we see such a good rally into the close of

bar number 111.

Number 112, we're trying to commit above the high here. We can't commit and

the volume signature is not that great.

Okay, well, maybe there is some kind of ease of movement, but for the ease of

movement, we need to commit above the high, and we're kind of right there.

So it reminds me more of this bar right here. I believe it was 53 than anything

else. So we're probably still going to retest, and what are we retesting?

Probably we're retesting field supply and 1 and 11.

So just some kind of retest right here, and then a continuation to the upside.

We want to make sure that we're going to add the position on that retest, that

we're going to add the position on the way up, and now we could add the

on the actual breakout rather than what we've done here, right? So we don't want

this breakout by.

We want the breakout by after the backing up action when...

supply is observed at the level of the

resistance.

That's what we want to buy.

Okay, so that's the plan.

Let's go and see how we can implement this.

Okay, great reaction into swing 31.

Look at the spread. The spread is diminishing again. What do we see in

the progression of the closes to the downside?

Look at all of this.

Nothing, right? So we're still in this area. We're still not going below even

these levels right here.

We are at the high or low level on the closes.

And every time there is, you know, an attempt to go below these

levels, there is a recovery.

There is a recovery.

There is a recovery.

There is a recovery. Recovery.

Recovery. Recovery.

So it's as if when we go into the short -term oversold condition, every time

institutions are buying, they are picking up shares at the short

-term oversold condition where there is a short -term value for them for their

long -term bullish scenario.

So where is our next entry? We would be thinking after this reaction into swing

number 31.

that any close above these levels right here or going through, you could buy on

the intraday level, you could buy this close, you could buy this close, then

could buy the breakout if it happens.

So we're already into this position quite significantly on

quite a lot of points of entry.

All of those, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine.

10, 11, 12, possibly 13.

Okay, let's see. Ooh, look at that. Would we not have that breakout strategy

working? We probably would not get in on this bar.

And look at that bar.

So beautiful. How would you feel on that day?

All of this work would pay off.

And here is a question of the day what do you do here

so

let's have the poll here do we sell take profit

do we hold and kind of go through maybe a volatility that could come

um

Or what? Do we hold?

Do we sell?

Do we add to the position?

Think about this for a second and let me know. Write it down.

Okay, so we're definitely again divided.

Sell, take partial profit, hold. Take some profit but hold the rest for long

term. Take my money and run, hold.

I'm long term, I'd hold. If short term, I'd sell my position.

Sell a position, re -enter on a pullback.

And I think that all of the answers are correct because they're going to

reflect your trading style, your trading personality, your time frame.

So I'm going to divide this into two segments.

If we're a long -term investor, and this is the

predominant position for us that we've talked about, where we opened here,

here, here, here, here, here, here,

here, here, here, here, here, here, and then here.

So this is number 13, position number 13. And think about this.

Let's just say that you're buying 100 shares at each position, right, at each

place.

Shares at each entry.

You don't want to put there like 50 or 100 ,000 right away into this position,

no.

You want to be deliberate in the way how you accumulate and act only on a

confirmation. All of these entries are based on confirmation of a certain

principle that we've discussed.

So therefore, I would be in 1300 into this position. So just think about maybe

like, you know,

and move from 20 to maybe like $40 from one point of entry to the point of

entry number 13.

That's your commitment.

Now, for the long -term investor,

we would be thinking about what? We would be thinking about

causality. And our cause is all of this.

and then all of this.

So and think also about institutions that started buying here, right? So this

one month, second month, third month, fourth month that they're in

this position.

Do you think that institutions that have billions and trillions of dollars is

gonna exit the position in four months?

Do you think they would be interested in the stock where they go in and then

they exit so fast?

And by big institutions, I mean like Warren Buffett type. Do you think that

Buffett would be exiting this position in four months, even if he has so much

profit, even if the stock doubled?

Unlikely. This is not who they are. This is not...

what they can do.

Because of their size, they can't move so fast.

For some of their clients, like net worth clientele, the long -term tax

strategy has to be such that you have to hold on to certain assets for over a

year.

And obviously,

getting in and out so fast will produce so much volatility, the profits will

corrode.

If they're going to start selling at this point of time, they might have the

bar that's probably going to be like this.

They don't want to do that. And obviously there is some selling that's

on this bar.

But that's also overcoming a long -term resistance.

Think about the long -term breakout here.

And on this long -term breakout, we probably have some kind of late

institutional buy -in that comes in and just capitulates

on this idea in the sense that they have to be in this idea right now.

And usually, in a lot of cases, This type of long -term breakout

does not define the ending of the move.

It actually defines, if not the beginning, but yet could be like not

middle point of this whole trend.

Because those institutions that are getting in still now, they still would

to hold on to the stock for a considerable period of time because they

thinking about...

Long -term strategists, they're thinking about turnover in their portfolio, and

they're thinking about higher valuation for this stock.

For them, what has happened is just the emergence of the uptrend.

I mean, realistically, where is the end of this move?

If we only have had one higher low and one area

with a higher high and higher low.

First time it has happened.

This is where the trend has been confirmed.

So their systems and scans are screaming, new trend, new

trend.

You got to get in.

So this bar is exactly that.

They are getting in on that signal.

And some of them are going to do this.

So for instance, institutional signal is going to look like this.

It's going to create some kind of, you know, describe some kind of environment.

And then in this environment, there's going to be some kind of

trend confirmation.

And then there's going to be some kind of tradable.

So they're gradually gonna recognize the opportunity, confirm

the new trend, and then get in into the position.

And that's exactly what's happening here. So for the long -term investor,

are 1 ,300 into this position, there is nothing else to do but just to enjoy

this day and just hope that we're going to have a continuation of this day and

not the reaction right away. But if we have a reaction, we do want to see some

kind of absorption that's going to happen. That's going to confirm that the

trend is going to continue and we're not done.

For the short -term swing trader, this could

be the place to consider getting out.

And I would be thinking here about the momentum.

Look at this momentum that we started to have.

On the second move to the upside, we're probably having a much better momentum

than on the first move to the upside.

So if we're contextually thinking that there was a breakout right here and the

price still went up,

We're probably thinking that the price should go up as well, and it probably

should go up much better just because of how much better the price travels

to the upside, and it travels from a higher level, and it travels from the

where supply has been observed.

Look at all of this supply right here.

It's just going down gradually as the price starts to go up in the opposite

direction.

between the force to the downside and the result.

Everything looks bullish. So we want to get out, but we want to get out at the

best price here on the swing. So I would probably measure this bar, the latest

bar.

And I would say, okay, where is my one half?

I want to have the stop loss just below that.

So this is my swing exit.

I could take some profit here as well.

There is really nothing wrong about that. I think that for a swing trade,

is a really good profit, so take it. If this is your style, just take it.

And for those of you who are capable of

waiting to see what momentum is gonna bring, just stay in this position.

and then just move the stop loss as the price moves up.

Okay, so here are the next two bars.

So we didn't go down. We did not, this bar right here, you cannot see it really

well, but this is it right here. It's kind of like this.

No, I think it's this, like that.

Nothing really happens, but supply comes in, and we're seeing that the result to

the downside is not that great.

So supply is being observed.

Therefore, short term bullish.

We still want to stay in this position. Next bar, supply comes in again. The

price goes up first, then comes back, closes at this level. So yes, some

increase.

And here we would be thinking, okay, yes, we could develop that reaction.

So let's tie up.

you know the stop loss so maybe from here we might put it somewhere here just

below this bar right here what if we have a continuation and then the move up

we don't want to be caught up in this so somewhere here and i frankly i would

just keep it below right here and just allow the price to show me a little bit

more and i'm basing this on the test right We've talked about

how supply occurs in the test and how it reacts.

We could have different tests. We could have this big bar and then the test down

and then a recovery.

So we don't want to be caught up in this.

But look at how here on the next day the test is just so mediocre.

So we still would prefer to stay.

Okay, and this is what happens next. So right away we see that there is no

progression to the downside.

And this is extremely bullish.

This is basically a reaction on the upside.

If we look at the intraday picture, it would look something like this.

So we are in the trading range, which is up sloping.

And now I'm thinking, if this is a reaction,

upsloping reaction, and we don't see a lot of emergence of supply.

I should say no significant supply.

And it doesn't produce the result to the downside.

So this is still extremely bullish.

And that suggests that the rally is gonna continue.

If rally is to continue for a swing trader, which is going to look for

opportunity to enter, why wouldn't we?

And I'm thinking that one -to -one, this could be a move like that.

Think about the momentum here that we have had.

Institutions are getting in.

Institutions are getting in again.

So all of this supply that we have seen is being observed so quickly and so much

on the way up, absorption on the way up.

Okay, so then I'm looking at these bars and I'm thinking, okay, one, two, three,

four, five, six.

And this bar, again, I'm seeing the same characteristics buying into the close,

buying into the close. This could be a phase C in the smaller range. We would

have to look at the intraday.

Let's imagine that we're just getting into this position if there is a

right here to the upside of this closing open.

So if the price goes up, we'll add to the position.

This could be also, you know, long -term investor strategy as well. Not

necessarily, but it could be.

And here we would be adding less shares.

then you know on any on the way up we were adding by 100 shares we could just

add another hundred let's see what happens next okay so breakout we

in in the position right here and again we look at this bar yes there is some

supply that's coming in but it's not a big distributional pattern

not a distributional

supply signature here by any means.

In fact, the bar goes up, it looks very bullish.

This smallest reaction could suggest that we are going to have some kind of

reaction, but think about how reactions have developed before in this

uptrend. So you can't really think about these situations anymore because why?

This is a trading range.

You have to think about this situation and this situation and this situation.

Why?

Because this is an uptrend.

It's a different environment. You can't compare anything to the trading range

anymore.

You're only comparing the movements that are in the new environment.

So how did the tops develop?

They usually would require some time, would have some kind of stopping.

action first and then some supply might occur so and this is what we're looking

for right a possible stop in action low supply is it the possible

stop in action so this is how we're stopping the supply maybe so i

would just see i would just wait as to you know what kind of bar we're going to

have next

And my stop loss probably would be just below this bar right here for a swing

trade. So this is a stop loss swing.

And then I would have a stop loss, long -term stop loss right here.

We'll talk about this. There was a question here from Justin. Will we go

-depth on interest in this course?

Yes, we are going to have one session where we're going to talk about the

Wyckoff trading plan.

And there we'll talk about the interest also. I will show you Wyckoff entries

and what I've developed for myself.

And in the practical, this is where we're going to go into much more

This is where the depth of this understanding of the point of interest

to be developed.

But for now, these are the stop losses that I would be thinking of.

If we're going to have some kind of bearish action, swing trade is out

immediately.

Let's see what happens next.

Oh, well, this is where we were.

And I'm so happy that we didn't react right away to some

minor signs of supply on the tail.

Again, you're in such a bullish pattern. Why would you be thinking about bearish

picture on such a smaller scale? You should be thinking that every time.

We have some short -term supply coming in. It's going to be observed.

And until it's not, that's when you're going to get out of the position, right?

You need to see a change of character, a change of behavior to

confirm that you need to get out.

You don't have to take the profit right away. If anything, the majority of

amateur traders are...

getting out of the positions, of winning positions, not losing positions, but

winning positions, much faster than they should.

If we would have get out on this bar for a swing trade, we would not enjoy this

round.

And I think it's on this bar right here, this is where we are starting to be

a little bit concerned because this is where the volume signature is so high.

And we had the previous bar that was a really great bar for us. It reminds us

this bar right here. It reminds us maybe of this bar right here.

Those are like concluding bars.

Those are the bars that come before the reaction.

And we see that the next bar, we have that increase in the volume signature.

This is the third highest volume bar.

And yet, even with that, look what supply can do.

So we've traveled all of this, and yet we reacted and closed

on that bar and negated only this much.

We're in the topper portion of this reaction. And then again, next bar,

buying into the close, next bar, buying into the close,

but the largest supply.

is being shown to us.

So this is where we definitely could consider for a swing trader to get

out.

Whether you are getting out on this bar right here, on the next bar, or on the

next bar, it doesn't really matter.

You have enough profit here to boast about this trade for the rest of your

If you would conduct this type of trade,

let's say up to here, this is going to be a fantastic trade.

For the long -term investor, I think it's reasonable to start thinking about

maybe taking some profits.

But at the same time, I think also the long -term investor will be questioning

whether this is still a good stock long -term. Again, think about

what has transpired here.

In about...

one, two, three, four, five months, we've made so much progress

to the upside.

We have made so much money.

Do you think that institutions are going to get out those Warren Buffett types?

Probably not. They're probably going to start distributing at the point of

extreme valuation.

And this could be just a short -term spike where we could have some kind of

reaction, maybe a reaccumulation range, and they still would hold on to the

supply. They would not present it. So it's through the trading range that's

going to create the distributional qualities.

This is where the long -term investor will make that decision to close out

position completely. We still don't have that.

Even the short -term bars here.

have bullish characteristics rather than long -term bullish characteristics and

short -term bearish characteristics rather than short -term bearish and long

-term bearish.

So there is no synchronicity in the time frames for the downward movement.

But the only thing that this picture suggests is that we're going to have

kind of either reaction or a trading range. And it's in this trading range,

is where we need to decide what we're going to do.

if the distribution is developing.

Okay, well, let's see.

Ooh, that doesn't look distributional.

That actually looks maybe like a trading range, maybe phase

A, maybe phase B type of upthrust.

So we're seeing how the demand signature is diminishing, but whatever supply has

come in, it's only on one bar.

There is nothing else.

So therefore, we are thinking that maybe like with the backing up action, we're

going to have some kind of reaction to the downside

and maybe to the support area as well. So either a

trading range or maybe a high, low, and a continuation.

So we'll have to see. If there's going to be a continuation, we're probably

going to reestablish a swing position.

Here is that.

trading range idea or a reaction idea.

We see how supply is diminishing.

The spread is diminishing as well.

So that's bullish again.

That probably suggests a higher low rather than a trading range.

So if we're going to get out, we want to open a position somewhere here and then

we want to open the position somewhere here.

For the long -term investor, you don't have to do anything. You could just kind

of enjoy it.

have your stop loss below a very significant commitment to the

upside. That would be your given up catastrophic stop loss point.

Let's see what happens.

Okay, so we would get into this position on this bar and then right here. And

this would be a swing position.

I've slowed in trading range.

which reminds us of the previous analog, suggesting that we still might actually

have another move to the upside.

If it's going to be a climactic move, then we are definitely out.

Even the long -term investor would be thinking at that point that this is just

too much too fast.

So let's see what happens.

Here we are.

Here is that last two points of entries for us.

and a big, big, big run to the upside.

And on this run, we would be looking at all of these bars and we would be

thinking, okay,

the bar with

the largest volume signature

usually would suggest some kind of top information that is coming.

And look how we're still continuing to the upside, but the demand is

diminishing. So here we're just using simple stop loss movement

strategies where we're just moving the stop loss based on the low and one half

of the bar, depending on how you're going to manage this bar.

You still could be in this position.

Right here, this is that break to the downside.

This is stop loss number two.

And a red bar, a reactionary bar, could be a stop loss or

rather exit number one. And then on the way up, you could

play this.

You could start playing this more on the

intraday basis as the price goes up and exit it somewhere here as there is an

attempt to go up and then the reversal.

There are quite a lot of methods here that you could use to get out.

But let's just say for the long -term trader, we want to see the signs

of the distribution.

We still would not see the signs of the distribution on the way up.

We see the climactic run,

which suggests a

stop in action and suggests a trading range.

And then we have to figure out what the bias is.

And if the bias is bearish, we want to get out, exit

the position at the most optimal places.

Okay, so let's say swing trader is out.

Then the long -term investor, what are we doing here?

Well, look at this bar.

What is this bar on such volume signature? This is the highest supply

throughout this whole chart.

We see the synchronicity of immense

effort to the downside.

with the largest downward result.

And this bar acts as a change of character bar.

It also acts as a part of a possible automatic rally,

I'm sorry, reaction, either in the reaccumulation or a distribution.

The volume signature and the way how the effort is synced with the results such

as that this might be a distribution.

If this is a distribution, then for the long -term investor, our most optimal

exit points are actually not right here. If we didn't exit it right here, we're

losing a lot of ground here.

So what we want to do is we want to see where the automatic reaction is going to

end, and then we want to get out on the way up into the secondary test.

Now, thinking about this whole move to the upside, we're definitely thinking

that this is a leadership stock.

So with the leadership stock distribution, we're usually going to

picture where we're going to see some kind of higher highs, higher lows

environment just because of this whole move up and how much short -term value

being observed by weekends.

So the best points of exit in the leadership stock is going to be above

of the climactic action, around the area where the upthrust happens.

So we want to get out somewhere here now that we missed that opportunity. If not

here, then here, or maybe here.

And obviously the most optimal is just going to be exiting right here and just

be done with this, go away.

We don't need a better price.

Because the time in this position is going to play not in our favor, not only

from the optimal point of view in terms of when we exit, but also in terms of

the increased volatility that we could see in the trading range as people start

dumping their positions.

So we don't want to be caught up in that volatility, but we already are if we

didn't exit it earlier. So let's just assume that we haven't.

Okay, here we go. Next couple of bars.

Into the close, buying into the close, buying into the close, buying into the

close, first time sink.

So this means that most likely from here we're going to go up.

And we are. You could exit here, but again, thinking about the leadership

characteristics, it's better to wait when the price comes back and exit

somewhere here.

rather than in the middle of the trading range, right? Because now we're

thinking this is the range right here.

Okay, well, let's look at some of the bars here. I

mentioned that there is a buying into the close.

This bar actually is really good. That suggests that there is short -term

momentum to the upside.

So that suggests that we might actually touch this high.

Supply signature is diminishing, so the test could be as a high or low.

So maybe something like this. So our goal is just to get to this point.

Here we are.

Next bar at the end of swing 37.

Again, increasing the volume signature, suggesting that there is an increase in

the demand, and then buying into the close, so that's great.

Confirmation, confirmation, confirmation, and here we are.

So it's right here where we might be thinking, okay, well, now let's look at

this whole reaction.

I mean, we could just literally relax a little bit if we're a long -term

investor and we're still holding about, what, 1 ,500 of shares at this point.

Why are we so relaxed here? Well, we're not so relaxed. We are very alert.

But we are relaxed that the price where we were supposed to get out is actually

above that point.

And this is the moment where greed is going to come in and you're going to

hmm.

Maybe not.

Okay, well, you know, you could hold on to this. Maybe there's going to be

another opportunity to get out. But again, it's all about the efficiency at

point of time.

When you look at the initial reaction, what do you see?

Almost all of the gains that we have had on the previous rally have been

negated.

So this is a bearish sign.

And it happened on somewhat of a significant volume signature.

Remember back then when we looked at the distribution signature, we had a

climactic run into, I believe, point number 13 or 14.

Was it that? No, that was around 30, I believe.

And then we had multiple bars that looked like this. And then we've talked

the consistent selling on

a change of character.

And it looked like this.

They are selling, selling, selling, selling.

And then they stopped selling.

So they sold some of their position.

You could clearly see this. This is only institutions that could produce that

type of price signature, you know, together with the volume signature here.

So they sold.

Then there is a test, successful test that suggests a short -term rally.

And as the price goes up, we would be expecting that there's going to be some

more selling because what they are basically doing, As the price goes up,

they're saying, oh, okay, let's sell into the strength.

And they sell into this strength as the price goes up, and then the selling

continues. And at some point, it starts to produce the movement to the downside

because the buyers no longer can support all of the selling by the CEO.

And that's when

synchronicity becomes so evident that on the selling by institutions, the price

moves down. When this happens, what do you think they're going to do?

They're going to stop selling.

Well, there is still some selling here, but generally they're going to start

selling less because they see how the price is becoming unattractive to them

sell at those levels.

they want better pricing. So they're going to stop selling for a second. And

that's what's going to produce diminishing supply signature.

And with that, the price is going to start traveling up.

But once it's again in the area of where they started selling, they might start

selling again.

So they are selling in the specific price levels on the way up and on the

down. So now they could be starting selling again on the way up on this

bar. And then on the way down, let's see if that is actually what's going to

happen. Okay, yes.

So both of the bars see some selling.

There is some buying as well right here.

These two bars have some selling behind it. We just committed temporarily,

and then we instantly came back into the trading range below the resistance.

What does this remind you of?

An upthrust.

Okay, now we're thinking, okay, where are we in terms of the structure of

A? Up thrust usually is a function of phase B.

Okay, and now we're seeing a higher high, a higher low.

So maybe this is more of the like up sloping structure, something like this.

So if we're going to go down, we might create another higher low. Again, think

about the leadership stock and how the leadership stocks are being distributed.

and then maybe go if this is phase b maybe go into phase c right here

like this so we have to mitigate our position i would

say that probably at this point of time we're either out or if you're more

conservative you could just say okay well give me the last chance you know

me out somewhere here in the middle of the range this is not the most efficient

place but still You have a lot of profit.

Somebody might be waiting for phase C.

My preference is always be all about efficiency, right? So get out here. If

cannot get out at this two spots, start getting out right here based on your

analysis. And that's it.

Okay. Well, let's assume that we are out.

And we're seeing that this high -low reaction.

is just still suggesting that there is still some value, short -term value,

for some of the institutions.

And this could be weak hands value.

And as the price gets out, we are maybe even getting nervous. Did we

make a mistake? There is so much momentum here. Could it just actually go

higher on the same type of move?

and then we're not in the position so um where is that you know uh doubt on

is going to go away on on which confirmation well looking at the volume

signature what we're seeing is that if this is the breakout it happens on

diminishing volume signature so then the question is why

is of movement not on the breakout we don't want to see this on the breakout

probably when the volume goes down and the price commits like this, it's

probably all about weak hands trying to push the price up like this on their

buys.

We still see that there are a lot of institutional selling has happened here.

And the next thing, if this is a distribution,

We need to see one thing to happen before we open, let's say, a short

We need to see a synchronicity between

increased effort to the

downside and increased result to the downside.

At this point, we're going to define the timing of our

short position point of entry.

This would be the key for us.

We don't see it yet.

It's more feels like we had a big run up.

Some of the institutional selling came in and the weak hands are trying to push

the price up just based on the previous leadership characteristics.

This is not enough for us because we want whatever supply has came in.

to be tested at the same price level, so close to that, and to have some kind of

institutional volume signature.

Okay, so let's see what happens next.

Okay, big bar to the downside. Again, this is something that we don't

necessarily want to see in a bullish scenario, right? We said that at the

of swing number 38,

The price commits temporarily to the upside and then comes back into the

range. On swing number 40, commits to the upside on diminishing volume

and then instantly comes back as a reversal bar and closing below the low

of the previous bar on even lower supply signature.

So this is your...

true ease of movement when the price commits to the downside this is not an

of movement because the price did not commit below it only tried to do so in

intraday and then came back into the close here we are closing below so what

does that suggest ease of movement it says that demand is poor at this point

supply dimension supply

can move the price down.

Bullish or bearish?

Definitely bearish.

But if this is bearish, still think upthrust that we might have

some kind of test here.

And the reason why I'm saying this, the test should come, is just because of the

still leadership characteristics of what we see.

Imagine a lot of people are still in this position because they're

this. a higher high, higher low uptrend situation.

And we can't blame them because I think as much as technical analysis

is trying to establish itself in the field of finance as a relevant and

source of the analysis outcome type of approach,

there are a lot of beliefs.

that over 100 years were confirmed and reconfirmed by so many teachers,

believes in technical analysis that if it's a higher high, higher low, it's an

uptrend. But what it doesn't say is such belief that even in those type of

contextual situations where we see higher highs and higher lows, we still

be in the distribution.

And oh boy, there are so many examples of this.

even in the most recent move to the downside that we had into the December

Go to those charts in that area, in that period, and look at those charts again.

Look at the stocks like Navadir, you know, that has been a leadership stock

years and years and years.

Look at the distribution that took place there. Look at Apple.

That was going up for years and years and decades, really.

And look at the distribution right there.

And it's still a short -term distribution. We still don't know what's

happen next because there are some bullish characteristics there. This

just a reaction in a still much longer trend. We still need to figure this out.

But one of the things that I'm trying to change in your mental

approach to the analysis is the way what you see

and what you think about that.

What looks bullish does not necessarily is bullish. What looks extremely bearish

is not necessarily too bearish.

And this chart, it just has so many examples of this type of dilemma.

Okay, well, we've seen that, again, the up thrust suggesting a move to the

downside. In this case, I would say that probably better reaction than what

we've seen on SWIN 38.

Why? Well, because this bar had some demand signature behind it.

This bar does not have demand.

And therefore, we would be thinking that there's going to be a continuation to

the downside, maybe into the area of the previous low, maybe another higher low,

but this reaction should be a little bit better than the previous reaction.

Okay, well maybe so.

Yeah, I would say so. Yeah, this bar also kind of like defined. We might not

even done with this reaction.

But a high, a low, big spread.

Here is a diminishing spread.

Here is the spread is increasing.

And look at the volume signature.

Now finally we have that synchronicity. So I would say that this is the first

time when the volume signature supply is increasing.

and the result is slightly increasing, but increasing.

So that slight increase of the result, and maybe close, a bind into the

close, bind into the close here, still might suggest a retest, still might

suggest maybe some kind of rally into this high, maybe into this high right

here, some kind of test, and then a final capitulation.

So it's right here.

This is the spot for us to enter.

This is the spot for us to enter on the breakout.

Maybe this is the spot where we might have a major sign of weakness,

LPSY, and we want to enter. So maybe like three spots where we could enter.

And then if the price is going to start going down, think about all of the

institutions that are still in this position. What are they going to do?

They're going to capitulate.

The velocity should increase on this move to the upside.

Momentum should increase on this move to the downside because institutions

are going to capitulate and there should be some kind of big bars,

especially somewhere in this area right here where we see that capitulation.

It should be a big bar to the downside and the volume signature should be high.

Okay, well, let's see if we could execute the strategy.

Okay, a test comes at 42.

Between 42, we are committing above the short -term resistance, but we

can't overcome the long -term resistance.

And then the next up bar closes lower, even though we tried to

go higher. And then...

adjust the continuation to the downside another higher low the volume signature

diminishes you know if we would be comparing it like this uh but look at

demand so look at all of this latest rally swing number 40

swing number 42 swing number 44 if the price is to reverse here and

this is the end of the swing

then what are we seeing with the result to the upside?

Diminishment. And that happens on what? On what kind of demand signature?

Very mediocre average demand.

So that suggests that demand is in weak hands.

And we saw the first synchronicity.

between downward effort and downward result.

So this probably is acting more as a test as we thought.

So any type of again, you know, failure here, we want to get in, break out, we

want to get in, break out, we want to get in, and then some kind of last point

of supply we want to get in.

Okay, so here is this bar on the intraday. We could open a position right

This could be our first point of entry to the downside, second point of entry,

third point of entry.

And here we would be thinking that all of the stop losses will be here. So you

just have to scale in correctly into this position.

Okay, let's see what happens next. And obviously, again, synchronicity for the

second time.

We have everything synced, effort and the result to the downside. So this

now more as a top information where we had higher highs, higher lows

environments, and now we're having lower highs, lower lows environment.

A change of behavior, a change of character.

Increasing volume signature, increasing supply, increasing result to the

downside.

Distribution.

And here we are.

Okay, so our points of entry are going to be here, here, here.

Sign of weakness, LPSY, very quick, just because the capitulation happened so

quick. And look at this volume signature.

This bar, because of this bar right here, this bar actually was the largest

supply. So this is where, in this area right here, this is where the

institutional capitulation happens.

Those late institutions that they are realizing that that's it, the party is

over, and they need to get out of this position.

Please note, when we say institutions are capitulating, it sounds kind of like

little bit negative, right?

But in reality, they are making money there because a lot of them got in right

here.

So this is their trade.

And it's still probably in the hundreds percent.

probably like two to 300 % that they made here on this trade.

And obviously, different axes would define different profitability,

efficiency, and so on and so forth. But even here, people are still making money

on the position.

All right, guys, that's it.

Thank God we're done with this exercise.

Yeah, this is a very long exercise.

And I'm actually somewhat exhausted, so why don't we stop here for today, and

then next class we'll start with the relative and comparative analysis.

Homework will be only one homework.

Please go and re -listen, re -watch all of the videos of this exercise.

Make notes, send those notes to me.

And if you even don't make the notes, but you have time to do the homework,

Watch the recordings again.

Go through all of those even as you watch.

Notice the pieces of information that maybe you have not noticed before.

Maybe something that was said and your mind just could not take it all.

I mean, even today, going through this whole analysis of this run -up

and the distribution.

And as you could see, this case study could be, of course, on its own. I mean,

like it's just so long, and it just makes so much sense to go through the

price cycle like this.

But a lot of information, I'm sure, is lost in your minds. So go re -watch the

videos, and then the next session is all going to be devoted to the relative and

comparative analysis.

All right, guys, I think that's it for today. Let's see if we have some kind of

closing comments, questions.

Maybe we could address that.

Then we'll stop.

I feel like I'm losing my voice.

Questions, comments?

Okay, so I don't see anything.

Okay.

Okay, it's just some comments. Okay, great. Thank you, Philip.

Okay, guys, until next week, and we'll do

our relative comparative analysis. We'll start with the new material.

Thank you so much, and I'll see you next week. Thank you, guys.

Bye -bye.