All language subtitles for Session 12-WTC (Mar 25, 2019)

Hello, everyone. Today is March 25th,
and this is our session number 12 of the

Wyckoff Trading Course.

I have a lot of busy stuff here on the
first slide. I don't like this.

I will redo this next time. It just
doesn't look that great, but bear with

here.

So I've seen a lot of you started
registering for the Wyckoff Practicum

and there was a question last week
regarding the price.

I messed up a little bit, to be frank,
guys.

So I came back to my team, and I asked
them this question, and they corrected

me. So for the alumni

to take Wyckoff Trading Course, and
those of you

who wanted to do this have already done
so. So it's $4 .98.

minus $100 rebate, which was before
March 20th, $398.

And then the practicum is actually the
regular price that we have, which is,

I believe, let's see, I don't know those

prices by heart. I apologize. Hold on a
second. Let me just double check even

for myself.

Yes. That's what I thought. Yeah, so the
price is already $3 .98.

That was my confusion. So the price was
the same with that discount. So it's $3

.98 for the practicum. That's the price
for nine sessions. So just register at

that price.

Oh, hold on a second. This is for
alumni.

Oh, I'm confusing you again, guys. I'm
so sorry.

Okay, let's start again. So if you want
to register for the practicum, 5 .98 for

nine sessions.

That's what it is.

And then the question was from the
practicum alumni.

They have the price of 3 .98.

So that's it.

But if you feel like I've confused you,
come back to me and just say like, oh, I

heard this price.

I will honor that.

So in any way, the knowledge is more
important than the money, so just

and I'll honor any price that you heard
of from me in the previous

session. Okay, next.

This is the question. Will the practicum
be offered later this year, or is the

April -June timeframe the only one
you're given?

In September, we will have the last
practicum course.

And then we're going to switch into
Wyckoff Trading Course Part 1 and

Trading Course Part 2. That's how it's
going to be for the beginning of

September. But yes, in September, the
last practicum cycle will start.

So you could do it either in summer or
in fall.

Then the next, well, this is just a
comment. It's just a comment. Okay,

You can read those guys by yourselves.

Next session, April 1st. And let's just
see what we're going to

study. So today, so this is session
number 13.

Yes, but this is on April 1st. So today
we're finishing volume and price

analysis, and then we're going to go
into comparative and relative analysis.

This is going to be a big deal today.

First, we're going to finish that XSS,
and I'm going to go myself. I'm going to

go really fast.

So for those of you who are listening,
on the video you have

to stop, just kind of take notes, think
about it,

start again. For those of you in the
live class, if you have a question, you

have to communicate that question right
away as I'm going to go fast.

But we will be done with the group
exercise today. That's our priority

one. And then we'll jump into that
comparative and relative analysis.

We'll talk about this. I'll have a
homework for you on that, which is going

be a lot of fun because we're going to
combine comparative and price analysis.

And all of the studies today are going
to be with Home Depot.

And then session number 13, we'll
continue our comparative relative

conversation, and we will look at the
top -bottom approach filtering.

This is where you look at the market,
then you look at the sectors, you look

the groups, you look at the stocks.

And then we'll talk about some other
ways of how we could get the information

for our selection process.

And there will be some homework on that
as well.

All right.

Okay.

So I think that we've addressed all of
the questions.

And now let's jump into our exercise.

So this is probably only one time today
when we're going to go through the

exercise, and I'm going to ask you a
question as a homework question as to

do you guys think is going to happen
next?

What is the next short -term bias?

And have you thought about a long -term
bias as well? So let's do this

first.

What do you think is going to happen
short term? That's number one. What's

bias short term?

Bullish or bearish?

Are we in the sign of weakness or are we
in the spring shakeout situation?

Okay, I see some answers are coming in.
I want more.

Let's see more.

What do you guys think short -term is
going to happen here?

Okay.

Okay. All right.

So we kind of maybe like 80%, 90 % short
-term

bullish here. I see a lot of comments
from you that.

This is a sprint or a shakeout, and
we'll see

what's going to happen.

Okay, so then really quickly, the same
question, only long -term. So now don't

think short -term.

We have seen at 61 how we looked at the
sprint, and then it was not a sprint

anymore. It was a sprint -type action,
but was not necessarily a sprint.

So when I'm going to ask you this
question, think about the long term.

think about the whole structure here and
think, what do you think at this point

the long term bias is?

Is it a distributional bias or is it an
accumulational bias?

Up or down?

Okay.

So we are somewhere like 50 -50 here on
the bias. Hold on a second, guys.

All right, I'm back. So we're 50 -50 on
the long -term bias.

So let's just go through this.

All right, so here's our trading range
as defined by the selling climax.

We see this very clearly through the
volume signature, through the spread

analysis, and through the confirmation
as to what has happened afterwards.

So we're seeing two types of changes of
character. One is very big one to

46.

Another one is more local.

You know, we'll talk.

about this in the practicum as to how we
actually label this what it means and

so on so forth but this is your phase a
phase a is defined by the stopping

action itself selling climax by the
change of character that happens

as a confirmation that the trend has
been done and we are going from

from one environment which is the
trending environment at downtrend to a

-trending environment, a trading range,
a consolidation.

And then we have series of tests at 44
and at 50.

And that's the definitional book example
of

phase A, where we have all of those
elements.

We're not talking here about the
preliminary support as an element of

but those...

Three main elements, stopping action,
change of character as an automatic

response to the previous move to the
downside, and testing of

that stopping action has happened.

So we are clearly in phase A right here.

Now I'm going to kind of quickly go
through phase B. We said that 53 -55

was an upthrust in phase B.

look like a SPRINT type secondary test

as a sign of weakness in phase B still.

Now let me talk a little bit about this
here.

Secondary test as a sign of weakness.

So we don't necessarily have in the
method this

particular definition.

We don't necessarily have this
definition either, spring type.

Usually Wyckoff would say that this is
just a secondary test.

Now, the way how Hank was teaching the
class, he would say that this is a minor

sign of weakness.

So combining those two ideas, that this
is a test, but it acts as

a minor sign of weakness,

meaning that the minor sign of weakness
would have some kind of either

emergence of the supply or deteriorating
demand, which is poor.

And both suggest a retest.

That's the idea behind the minor sign of
weakness.

The idea behind secondary tests is just
testing what? Testing previous lows. So

testing phase A lows.

So in WTC, we just combine these two
elements together.

So we know that it's a test, it's a
secondary test, and because it shows

weakness, because the price temporarily
commits like a sprint -type commitment

below the area of the support, we're
going to say that either supply is still

present there or demand is not that
active. In this case, it's all about

so demand is poor.

And we could expect some kind of retest
that we've seen at 8081 and 1991.

Those are going to be the spots where
this retest of 61 is happening.

So don't be confused about, you know,
some of the

essentially non -conventional semantics
that I'm bringing here in

this classroom.

I am interpreting the method in my own
way. So I'm showing you my

interpretation. It doesn't necessarily
mean that this is the original Wyckoff

label. And actually, Wyckoff did not
have the labeling of a spring. Wyckoff

not have the labeling of the phases as
well. That came later with some other

people from SMI. So it's kind of ironic
how it all unfolds.

Oh, boy.

It just got to me exactly what has
happened there in that conversation.

Okay, so 70 to 75, another upthrust.

And again, we were thinking that it
could be phase C of

the distribution. But then if that was
an upthrust in the distribution,

we would have a commitment below 61 on
the sign of weakness, right? And we

see that. 80 and 81 is actually a higher
low.

So being that a higher low, we're
thinking, and then 90 coming as a higher

then we know that this upthrust between
70, 75

is just an upthrust still in phase B.

And sometimes that happens, right?

We're going to have multiple tests in
some of the stocks at the support level,

multiple tests at the resistance level.
So what does it mean? Why is it not just

three tests?

And this is a great example where I give
you something, guys, a shortcut.

Remember what I told you about phase C,
right? How are we finding phase C? Well,

this is test number three.

This is second point of fear.

So those are most common. common
scenarios that should happen.

And then we're gonna have more uncommon
scenarios like this one, where we are

gonna have multiple tests, more than
three tests.

And we have to manage this, and we still
have to mentally stay in the game if we

want to follow this particular
instrument, this particular stock.

So in this case, there are actually more
tests here.

So after us in phase B, then going into
the higher low, again, we were thinking

maybe phase C, we did make a comparative
study of the

supply between areas of 76 and 81 and
compared that to the

area of 59 and 66.

And our conclusion was that

we actually have more supply between 76
and 81, even though it makes a higher

low.

And therefore, the rally is not going to
be as great as we saw from 61 to 73.

That suggested another upthrust. We
didn't know exactly what kind of

we're going to have.

So we go into the 90, and yeah, just a
very urgent

distributional upthrust on a very high
volume signature.

and it's just surrounded by supply on
the previous two bars on the right and

the left. But the majority of it came at
19, and it came as an urgent supply.

That suggests it's a short -term trade,
which we would be closing at the close

of this bar if we do not follow intraday
action. If we follow intraday action,

then our close of this position, entry,
another entry maybe another entry

somewhere here we would be closing it on
the intraday basis as the price gaps to

the downside goes down first or goes up
first tries to go up and then goes down

so then as it rallies back above the low
of

61 this is where our intraday exit would
be so exit intraday

And again, this is something that is
being discussed in the more advanced

classes, but you could see the logic of
this, right? So important support.

You have so much gain, you don't want to
give it away.

And you're probably closing this
position right away because you still

lot of volatility, you have a lot of
participation, and it looks climactic.

goes through the support level, not only
one, but two.

So as the price starts to come back, you
realize that there is some value here,

short -term and maybe even long -term
value if you're thinking accumulation

for institutions.

So as they're going to see this value,
what are they going to do? Are they

to buy?

And this institutional buying is going
to create a lot of momentum to the

upside, so you don't want to be caught
up in that momentum on the upside.

So you want to liquidate the position at
the extreme point of value for

institutions where they are starting to
aggressively buy the stock.

So that would be your exit right here,
and then exit at the close.

And we would be done with that short
-term trade.

And at this point, this is what we're
thinking.

We're looking at this whole labeling and
we're thinking, well, 90 was supposed

to be a major sign of strength.

It didn't materialize. There was an
urgent supply.

And it drove the price back to the lows
of 40 and 61.

What could this be?

If this is a distribution and if 90 is a
distributional top

in phase C, effectively an upthrust of
the distribution, then we should have

a sign of weakness after this.

And we should explore whether this is a
sign of weakness.

If this is a spring or a shakeout in
phase C for the accumulation,

then we should see specific
characteristics as well.

Not only that, not only the
characteristics of the way of how the

down we would explore, but we also would
be looking for a confirmation of

one over another.

This is going to come later because
we're going to look at the retests and

going to see what kind of rally we're
going to have. Is it a strong rally? Is

a weak rally?

how's the testing going, and so on and
so forth.

And then we would seek that
confirmation.

Strategy -wise, tactic -wise, if we are,
let's say, on the major sign of

weakness, we would be looking for the
last point of supply for the

of that. And this is where we could
reestablish our short position.

We don't necessarily, that, you know,
concern

that we got out of this position.

quick buck really fast and that's it for
now.

Give us a sign that indeed this is a
continuation of a

redistributional pattern and then we
will get back into the position.

If this is an accumulation, there is too
much volatility and still the testing

process needs to happen.

So let's go one by one with all of these
thoughts.

So the first one was, is this a sign of
weakness?

So how would we define that?

Well, first we would look at the
character.

And then we would also look at the
confirmation.

So on the character side, we're gonna
say that a sign of weakness, by the

definition,

And again, guys, you know, I'm just
going through some conversations on the

material that I'm presenting, so I'm
just going to make those references.

Yes, Philip, I'm talking about 91, yes.

So this is the definition that I gave in
WTC to our students.

A sign of weakness is going to be a
reaction that travels

from, uh the highs of phase c throughout
the

whole trading range and

overcomes and commits below the support
cluster that

was created in phases a and b and then
uh spends

time below that support

and reacts up in the rally that comes
exactly to that support level,

not necessarily in the first rally, but
could be on the second round.

So definitionally, we have that move to
the downside.

That's great. We don't have the
commitment, so reaction.

Yes.

Commitment.

Rally, we have to see what kind of rally
we're going to see here.

Would it be weak or strong rally? That
would act as that confirmation.

So there is no commitment to the
downside.

That's very strange.

When is it that we see a non -commitment
and what does it lead to?

So in the areas of the upthrust, we see
the...

temporary commitment to the upside and
then a reversal back into the trading

range. Temporary commitment above the
latest point of the resistance and then

coming back into the trading range.

The same here at 90.

That's what a temporary commitment is or
an attempt to commit.

We see this also in the spring.

Just one commitment at 61.

And then a quick reversal and price
comes back quickly into the trading

Those are the springs and the up
thrusts.

A sign of weakness as a sign of strength
is going to show us an ability not

just to temporarily commit above, but to
spend some time there. It's as if above

the resistance, there is a limited
selling for a period of time that

some bullish sentiment, let's say for
the sign of strength, still exists above

the resistance for maybe multiple
closes.

The same for the sign of weakness. This
is where we would see the

closes below the area of the support.

And one thing that we don't see here,
it's that.

Look at the bar number 91.

opening the close almost at the same
spot.

And it's actually close to one half of
the trading range.

Again, the question here that we would
be asking here, just based on the

definition of the sign of weakness,
where is our closes for the sign of

weakness? And we don't see those.

So it's only if we would come back to
this and we would see some closes below

the now even 91, then we would be...
thinking that, yeah,

this looks more like a sign of weakness
rather than a sprint.

But we don't have that.

And then on the sprint definition, we
would see that temporary commitment

or attempt to commit.

An attempt to commit is gonna look like
this.

where you have the intraday tail below
the area of the support that tries to

commit on the close but only commits on
the intraday level, and then the price

comes back above the support level.

And, oh, boy, do you see that, guys, how
quickly this price comes back once it

goes into the oversold below 61, and
then institutions are quickly picking it

and rallying it back.

So if we would be looking at this from a
different perspective, imagine that

we're looking from this from the
perspective of the close and not from

perspective of the highs and the lows on
the bar.

Then our close would be right here.

And we would never even see this move to
the downside.

Instead, this is the lowest close here,
and then this is the lowest close here,

and then this is the lowest close here.

Instead, we would be saying that based
on the close, we are actually making a

higher low here relative to this close,
or relative to the close around 61.

So we are progressing each time with
that close.

And we're actually progressing each time
with the close to the upside as well.

Even though there are some, this is
maybe, yeah, slightly up.

Even though those are up thrusts, but
look at what's happening here with the

closes on the relays as well. So we're
seeing higher highs, higher lows. So

there is a little bit of a hidden bias
here.

It's not necessarily a technique.

but we just want to observe this, all
right? So don't make it a part of your

plan to look at the trading range like
this, because not always you're going to

have a spring like this.

And this is looking more like a spring,
like that attempt to commit.

The only problem with this spring is the
volume signature.

It's still very hot, but we know that
with the spring number two,

we could have increasing volume
signature and lower low in

that volume signature.

It's just that we want to see just
either one day commitment, one bar

commitment, or just an attempt to
commit, and that's exactly what happens

So now that we're thinking that this is
a spring, we're thinking, okay, we're

glad that we are out of our short
position.

If this is our dominant, hypothesis
right now and we know that sign of

could happen in some different ways but
if we're thinking that this is phase C

and this is the screen then we probably
would be thinking that we could buy this

spring once volatility goes down

or we could even have

like a very small probe position here

And I would be probably thinking here
like 1 tenth, 1

fifth, you know, that type of size.

So maybe like on the 1%, maybe to have
10 to

20 basis points.

Because we are realizing that this could
be also the timing.

of when the price is going to start
finally going up.

And this is a very important level now
at 91.

This is probably where stop loss will
not be hit if this is a true phase C.

Remember how we defined the uptrend?
Where does the uptrend begin?

It starts at the low of phase C.

The phase C low is the lowest low in the
uptrend.

not in the trading range necessarily,
but definitely in the uptrend.

So therefore, we could be thinking here
that this is the low, and we could take

that pro position. In fact, let's just
do that.

And then we would be thinking that with
all of this volatility, we need some

kind of testing.

So the testing will present us with
other opportunities to come in. Then

obviously, if everything fails, then we
are only...

10, 20 basis points on the loss and it's
not a big deal.

Okay, so we're looking for something
like this where the rally comes maybe

the area of the previous resistance here
where there was some attempt to go up

and then it's gonna fail again
temporarily.

Does this remind you of the current
market?

Maybe.

And then depending on how much supply is
going to come here, if supply is

increasing locally, then we're probably
going to have some kind of consolidation

as a test.

If not, we're just going to have a high
or low, and then we're going to go off

there. So we just need to see what's
going to happen next. Okay, let's look.

All right, so we are going into...

92, right into the previous area of
intermediate resistance.

We're happy to see that the price not
just closes up on a spring, but it

actually has a progression to the upside
after

that spring, after that spring bar.

And we see that

several closes that actually go up, they
progress.

And that tells us that there is some
buying and the volume confirms this.

at the buying here on these two bars and
compare that to what is happening off

the spring low.

So this spring low by itself has a lot
of demand behind it.

Why? Let's review this really quickly.
Well, we're seeing

Relative to, well, relative to what?

Relative to what? Relative probably to
the previous bar because we can't

bar number 90 and 91.

Those are two different contextual
places of how supply and demand

Those are actually opposing analog bars.
It's almost like a mirror image of each

other. So we probably would be just
comparing and thinking that the previous

bar, let's just call it 90 .5, is the
one that we're comparing to.

And we would say that the effort has
increased tremendously.

And that effort was to the downside.

Yet.

What has happened with the result?

Price tried to commit to the downside
and did not make a lot of progress on

close relative to the open.

Spread has increased.

Close to the spread is really bullish.

So the result to the downside diminished
a lot.

So on extreme increase in effort, we're
seeing extreme...

diminishing result to the downside.

Definitely bullish, and not only that,
in a way, this type of bullishness where

it's being shown on the result side of
things, suggests that we're gonna have a

significant rally.

That character defines the timing for us

of awe.

the potential beginning of the new move.

We also could compare that bar, that
spring bar, to the previous bars of the

same quality where we saw some kind of
momentum kickoff.

So here it is, here it is, here it is.

And we would be thinking here, okay,
those are contextually analogous bars.

Why? Well, because they have
characteristics of

stop in action, demand increase, and
that's what gives the

kickoff to the momentum.

And it just happens over and over and
over again.

And it happens in the area of the
support, so that's why the context of

these bars is the same.

So what do we see here if we would
compare all of these four bars? Let me

just... show you the volume signature as
well because this is going to be the

key.

We're seeing that 91 is actually

the best bar of them all.

Just because we're seeing an urgent
demand coming in and producing the

biggest result on all of those bars.

And what is the result? Well, from the
low of the bar to the close. This is the

largest distance that has been covered.

From the low to the close.

From the low to the close.

From the low to the close.

And it happens on a big volume
signature.

And it happens at the very interesting
contextual place here. We're seeing...

what we could describe maybe as second
point of fear.

Well, it definitely looks much more
fearful than anything that we've seen

in the trading range. It probably
reminds us more of the actual downtrend

we have had before from the 30s here
into the 40 and

41. This looks the same.

So it's very interesting to observe the
whole downtrend there from the 30s to

the 40s, compare that to the 90 to 91,
and see that 90 to 91 actually

does not progress to the downside.

And this is, again, something that we've
been discussing throughout this

exercise for so long.

Something's going to look extremely
bearish, but in reality, it's

extremely bullish.

And I think that conventional technical
analysis just doesn't clearly define

that contextual problem for us. And
that's where Wyckoff method has this

We are looking at the progress of the
effort and

progress of the result.

And as the effort increases, but result
decreases dramatically, not only it

gives us an indication of the bias, but
it also suggests the timing

that it's now, and also it suggests the
character on urgent institutional buy

-in that the next rally is going to be
substantial.

Okay, well, if next rally is going to be
substantial, then where would it go to?

Well, definitely above 90 if this is a
substantial rally.

If it's going to go above 90, then we're
probably talking about a major sign of

strength rather than an upthrust,
although we saw how this upthrust has

happened. I mean, look at that going
above so much and then coming back.

So we still have to keep this in mind.
We would be looking at the character

which the price moves. That's number
one. Then we would be looking at the

commitment.

That's number two.

And then we would be looking at some
kind of backing up action as a

that this was a sign of strength.

That's going to be point number three.
So keep this in mind, guys.

And then the second target, so the first
target is probably going to be above

90. We need to commit above 90. And then
we could be thinking about a long

-term...

resistance here and that could come into
play

and that could provide maybe a long
-term resistance so the thinking maybe

price as target number two will come
here either be rejected here or would

overcome as target three and obviously
each target has low probability for us

right or high probability as we see the
character develop

So we're thinking maybe between T1 and
T2, something like that.

This is where we would go. This would be
a really good major sign of strength,

especially if the price spans multiple
closes above 90.

Okay, so now we're kind of figuring this
thing out, and we have a small probe

right here.

We're looking at the latest bar, 93.

It doesn't have a lot of supply.

So that's great because we're definitely
seeing that supply has

significantly went down.

So there's not a lot of selling at this
point of time.

And if we don't have a lot of selling,

at some point, we're probably going to
stop this reaction.

There's a question here from Philip.

Isn't this an ease of movement bar?

Ease of movement bar is going to be on
dimension supply signature with the

commitment below the last commitment to
the upside.

So, and then also, isn't it 92 shows
that

supply is going up? Yes.

Well, both of them show all of that.

But here is the key.

These two bars are related to what?

To the whole structure or to just the
local substructure?

What's going to happen after the low of
the spring?

We are going to have a move to the
upside that's going to meet some

Supply is going to increase locally.

And it would suggest what?

it would probably suggest some kind of
reaction.

That reaction is going to be judged on
the presence of the supply.

And then if supply is diminishing, most
likely this is

going to create a higher low and the
reversal.

And then the confirmation of that is
going to come somewhere here on the

breakout, which we want to buy.

And if supply is increasing and price
still goes

down, that's when we're going to look at
this as a bearish scenario.

So therefore, locally, what's happening
here?

At 92, yes, there is an increase of the
supply.

And we were anticipating this because of
this bar. So here it is.

Supply is increasing and we are
stopping.

And as we go down, what do we see?

Well, we see that supply is actually
somewhat average for this area,

or one of the lowest supplies in this
area. Because when we look at all of

the red bars, it's clearly on the lowest
side.

So as supply goes down, and we might be
thinking that there is an ease of

movement here, ease of movement is
usually going to be a lower supply.

and diminishing demand.

So that's just a short -term rally.

We still could go up to this point
somewhere here and still could create a

higher low out of this.

This type of reaction would suggest an
accumulation that we would do something

like this.

If the supply could only take us down
maybe to this low right here.

then it would suggest that if you have a
trading range, it's probably going to

be much shorter just because supply is
lower.

And then we're going to have a breakout.

And then we're going to have a breakout.

So I think it's a question here of the
duration of that test. That's number

And secondly, if that test fails.

It's not that your comments, guys, are
not correct.

And, you know, so I'm really happy that
you see this.

Increase of the supply is a movement.

But that only suggests a short -term
reaction for now.

And only if it fails, then we would be
talking that, yes, indeed, you know,

was an emergence of the supply or
something like this.

Okay, let's see what else.

Okay, so from Eric, why that bar? And
I'm assuming, you know, 93, so give me

some references to the bars.

Why that bar is too big if there is a
diminished supply and not small?

Yeah, so again, we could have result
increasing

on diminishing effort, right? So we have
diminishing

effort here to the downside, and we have
increasing result

to the downside.

So that suggests a short -term reaction.

That's what we are looking for.

Once we understand that the reaction is
going to happen, we want to understand

what is the character of that reaction.

All right, from Charles.

What about the probability of three up
bars ending in 92 being short covering?

Is there a signature for short covering?

Yeah, really good question about the
short covering. And indeed, think about

of the professionals.

or professional traders that are opening
positions everywhere right here.

So all of the spots that I'm indicating,
those are going to be where a position

could be opened on the way down.

So they are extremely heavily short.

Actually, one of the traders in this
stock is going to be me.

I'm loving this type of situations where
very quickly we could

gain a lot of profits.

And it's only because we're seeing this
opportunity and we understand the

character with which the price is going
to travel. So we are extracting the most

optimal value through the bias, timing,
character, instrument,

leverage.

So what I would be doing here, I would
be closing on the way up.

And that's what's going to bring, as
Charles suggests, some short covering.

But look at this signature right here.
This is the second largest volume

signature on this bar, on this chart.

So do you think this is just a short
covering?

It cannot be.

It has to be more than that. It has to
be a very strong institutional presence

on that bar that reverses such a heavily
bearish sentiment.

in the market at this point of time.

So that suggests some institutional
presence, not just of the short

-term professional trading, but long
-term institutional trading.

Okay, but obviously, yes, there will be
some short covering, which will add to

this bar as well.

Okay, so I think we're going a little
bit too much into the details here, but

let's address this.

From Philip, can there be such absence
of demand after such huge demand in 91?

Why is that?

Big rally needs big demand.

Why in such disappearance of demand so
early?

Well, look at 61, right?

What do we observe here?

Demand comes in heavily.

Actually, take 40 as well and 41 too.

Demand comes in heavily.

And then what happens with the demand
signature?

Nothing, right, until it increases here,
until it actually goes into the second

stage of the advance and third stage of
the advance. So this is the first stage.

So during the first stage here, we
really only see that institutions were

on the way down, on the way down, and
then on the way up, on the way up.

it. Nothing else.

Here, it's the same.

Buying on the way down, buying on the
way up in one bar.

And then there is some buying here.

And by the way, that bind, if we would
be comparing this bind to everything

else, what we've seen, so let's say
here's another bar like that, right? So

bind on the way down and then on the way
up.

The next two bars, look at their volume
signature.

The next two bars or three bars, look at
their volume signature.

The next two bars, look at their volume
signature. And look at the analogous

bars here.

Where would you say, Philip, that the
demand is better, that the demand is

present, that the demand is actually
resulting in the better progress?

Probably in the last case, as you say.
Yes. We see in both the

volume signature increase, suggesting
that demand is more at this spot than in

the previous momentum kickoffs.

That's number one.

Secondly, we're seeing that demand is
actually producing a better result.

We're seeing a better progression from
the latest close up

in the same analogous type of bars.

So that tells us that not only the
effort behind buying is

increasing at this spot, but the result,
the actual

progress to the upside is being allowed
more. There is more participation by

institutions. There is more urgency from
institutions, and that suggests that we

are there. This is the timing right now.

All right.

Another question from Nilesh. Volume
does not match with any of the volume

analysis schematics we studied earlier
for accumulation, or am I reading the

volume progression?

through phases incorrectly.

Actually, it matches perfectly.

Okay, Nilesh, I'm gonna unmute you
really quick.

So what is the volume phase analysis
schematic that

you are referring to?

Let's start from there.

Sure, so what I was looking at is, so
phase A volume, right, we are at a

and then in phase B,

Phase C that we are suspecting the last
91 is to be phase C. So it's kind of

increasing throughout, right?

Yeah. So you were looking for this,
something like this, where we have a

long -term decrease of the supply from
phase A

to C. But we are seeing maybe a local

increase of the supply.

from phase B to C.

That's going to be the most common
volume signature.

But we also had some variations.
Remember, there were four variations on

supply signature in the accumulation.

One of them, and I'm going to mute you
here. Thank you, Nilesh.

One of them was this.

Phase A, significant volume signature,
stopping volume signature.

And then we go into phase B. We could
have a variation of diminishing volume

signature or even increasing into phase
B.

And then one of the most difficult
variations was the increase of the

signature and increase supply signature
going into phase C.

Usually, such increase of the volume
signature going into phase C would carry

distributional type of quality.

But yet, with this

result signature, we are not producing a
result to the downside.

And that's that variation that is so
confusing because on the volume side, it

looks more like a sign of weakness
rather than an accumulation.

So you have to look at the result, and
this is the result that we see.

uh now let's yeah just come back to
those different variations and we did

exercise remember where we had the same
stock the same kind of structure at

different in different trading ranges
and then directionally it went different

ways okay but good question okay um

okay

All right, so now let's just say I'm
taking this as phase B. This will be in

phase B, but remember, we want to look
at what? We want to look at the supply

signatures at the areas of the testing,
right? Because this is where supply

comes, and we want to see what comes
there.

So here's our volume signature
throughout these areas.

And it still increases, right? So we
still have that increase into faith.

Okay,

what else?

Okay, Armand is saying, okay, so if 91
is a spring on a

huge volume, it is a sign of weakness.

Okay, again, volume characteristics has
to be combined with the

result characteristics, with the price
characteristics.

And I agree with you that sign of
weakness would occur on the increased

signature.

But also a sign of weakness would commit
below the support, and we don't see

this commitment. A commitment below
would be the close being below.

the area of the support.

All right, guys, I think that we are
done here. We've spent too much time on

this, so let's just go on.

I really would like to finish this
exercise today.

So we were expecting a reaction based on
92 and 93 reading.

Here is this reaction.

Here is this reaction.

Would you say that it's a bullish
reaction or it's a bearish reaction?

And do you guys see how it's dangerous
to make any long -term assumption about

92 and 93 at that point?

Because you don't know if supply comes
in.

The key is not to react on the supply,
right?

I'm trying to think about the analogy.
The first thing that comes to my mind is

rain, right? So if it drizzles, it
doesn't mean that it's going to storm.

But you know that it's going to rain.

So you want to make a judgment as to
what kind of rain you're going to have,

don't know, maybe in the next 30
minutes, and make that assumption about

whole rain.

So it's the same thing here.

You know that supply comes in. There is
a drizzle of supply.

And you have to make a judgment of what
kind of

reaction we're going to have when it
occurs.

Not before.

And we see with the down bars not being
able even to commit

below the low of the bar number 93.

And this bar right here is an inside
bar, so we can't really consider this a

commitment to the downside.

So this was 93 on the ease of movement
was the biggest result to the downside.

Bullish or bearish?

If this is the only thing that supply
could do at 92 to stop that rally

of the 91 spring, then I think we are
okay. We're not coming

back even, what, one half of the move to
the downside.

It looks structurally very bullish.

If you also want some kind of
confirmation on the character, look at

Spread is starting to diminish.

And then looking for the confirmation on
the volume signature, volume is

starting to diminish as well.

What does that tell you?

Well, it tells you that supply is
diminishing. There is no selling.

And the price stays in one half of the

range.

of the long -term range after such a
volatile event.

What does it mean? This means that
whatever buying has come at 91 and on

subsequent four bars, that buying is
substantial and we don't have

any more selling.

So therefore, we would be thinking of
adding to our position.

And this is the test. Swing 27 is our
test.

So this is where we want to spend the
majority of our tactical time.

Where would we be opening the position?

Bar 94 is an interesting bar for us
because if we would compare

94 and 92,

We're seeing that the effort slightly
went down, and yet the result has

increased in the way of how spread has
expanded.

So we could say that, yes, we could buy
this bar at the close.

Then we also could say on bar 94, we see
a little bit of the supply tail, and

effort is somewhat elevated.

So therefore, we are going to have
another reaction.

So we could buy off that reaction.

And we could do that on the way down.

And we could do this on the way up.
Well, let's say that we are more

conservative. We need confirmation.

So maybe what we could do is we could
get into the position here with the stop

buy or here.

This would be the level based on the
high of the bar 94.

And based on the last red bars high,
this is the area where we would be

thinking. if the price goes through this
area most likely we are breaking out

above 92 93 94.

so therefore we want to buy more so we
bought in here we bought in here

we want to buy in here we probably want
to buy in here again on the way up as

we're thinking 92 and 93 could be
analogous to 81 i'm sorry 82

65

And 42.

In all of these cases, when we had a
move up, a test, a breakout,

this is where the price continued to go
up.

And this was the beginning of the move.

And look at where we are starting that
move, right? If we would break 92,

this would be equivalent of 40.

2 and 45 breakout.

And that suggests that with the

anticipation that the character of the
rally is going to be better,

that suggests that we're probably going
to go into a major sign of strength.

So therefore, we are extremely
aggressive at this spot. We basically

anything. on the way up that gives us
some kind of opportunity to get into the

position.

All right, let's look at bar 95.

What do we see?

And what would we be comparing this bar
to?

So effort is going down.

What happens with the result?

Let's see what you guys are going to
answer here.

Effort goes down, what is the result of
this bar?

Increasing, yes, of course, it's
increasing.

It's committing to the upside, right? If
we would take this volume signature,

this volume signature right here, this
one has some supply so we can't really

use it, so this was the highest, we
might be thinking, ha the breakout but

effort is going down so we don't have
enough demand to commit to the upside

then at 96 we definitely see that right
so 96 commits up above 95

and above 92 in such way that negates
you know overcomes all of the demand

that we have in this area so that just
confirms that That confirms the

but let's come back to 95. I think it's
a very interesting bar.

What you would be comparing this bar to?

You probably would love to find some
analogs that are similar contextually.

84 would be that analog.

67 would be that analog.

45.

would be that analog.

Where is it? Right here.

To a certain degree, well, no.

Let's just deal with all of those.

Okay, so why 89, somebody said 89,

and 52 are not going to be those
analogs. Well, again, stop in action,

rally, test.

Stop in action, rally, test.

Stop in action, rally, test.

So 89 is different in that context
because it's closer to the resistance,

it's not off the support.

It's not the initial momentum.

It's a continuation of that momentum. So
you can't contextually compare those to

95. So what do you see at 95? Let's just
generalize everything.

Look at the volume signature.

Highest volume signature.

Highest effort.

Well, I wonder what this highest volume,
highest effort produces.

Does it produce the best result?

I would say so.

It is the best result.

Again, It's the weight of evidence that
we are accumulating

as we are starting to decipher all of
the price action of 92.

We are observing institutional presence
of

higher quality and much bigger size.

based on the character with which they
are buying, we're saying that there is

some urgency to buy.

And we see this through the analogous
work that we've done at 92,

I'm sorry, at 91, at 92, 93, and now at
95.

And at all of those spots, it's just
screaming at us that institutions are

really interested in the stock.

urgency for them to be in this position
right now so that suggests that we are

probably most likely are going to have a
major sign of strength and we need to

get more into this position if we're a
long -term investors and even if we're

short -term investors then we would be
you know trying to get in into this

position yes relative to let's say
previous bars that we have had where

was present. So demand, demand, demand,
demand, demand.

We're seeing some kind of diminishing
demand signature, and we're seeing that

the price actually extends easily to the
upside.

So there is this ease of movement here,
that's for sure.

We said that 96 was the largest volume
signature that overwhelms all of the

demand bars, confirms that breakout.

It's just that confirmation comes on the
next bar, not necessarily on 95.

but definitely a much easier movement
than to the upside.

Okay, let's look at 96.

96 is also a very interesting bar.

Why? Well, because look at the volume
signature. It's the highest volume

signature. It kind of reminds me of the
90.

All right.

And plus, we know that supply usually
comes at this level.

This whole area right here.

I'm just going to do it like this.

Look at the previous attempts to stop
the price from going up in this area.

number 46.

Bar number 48.

52.

53.

54.

55, all of those have supply signatures.

70, 71, 72,

70 whatever,

and then 73, all of those have supply
signatures.

85, 87, 89, 90,

one behind 90, and one after that.

All of those bars have some presence of
institutional selling.

This could be just professionals doing a
mean reversion trade. This could be

institutions getting into the position
and then selling some of the position.

This could be just trading in general on
institutional side when they see that

the price is in the overbought.

part of the trading range.

What are they gonna do? They're gonna
sell because they know that they could

extract even a little bit out of this
move, but on their big size, that's a

percent and they could just go away from
that trade at some point.

So 96 is the bar where supply comes.

So here is a question for all of you and
let's just kind of like

This is going to be a repeat, but I
think this is where, you know, I'm

through some of your comments might be
the mistake.

What do you think? Supply definitely
comes on 96.

So what do you think about this supply?

What does it mean?

Does it act? in the same way as in the
previous positions in the previous cases

and this is by far probably you know one
of the

largest supplies probably the highest
supplies was at 90 and then this is

probably the second spot where supply is
extremely heavy

Okay, well, let's look at that.

And again, I think that it comes maybe
from just a conventional technical

analysis. Whenever I hear from students
that, well, supply is there, so this

means that there is selling.

Yes, but there is always selling.

There is always somebody who's buying
and selling.

So then how would the price go up if
somebody is always selling?

It's all in the way of how supply is
being observed.

Whether it's going to be observed or
not. So supply increase.

does not necessarily mean right away
that we're going to have a stop in

I mean, look at 70.

Supply has come. Supply has increased.

We see this from the volume signature.

Does it mean that the price right away
went to the support level? No. It

requires time, right? So change happens
through time.

So if supply increases, we're looking
basically at two scenarios.

Is supply being observed?

and then the price, meaning that the
price will go up, or, and this is the

here.

Let me see who gave me this comment.

Philip, yes. So this is the key here. Or
would supply produce

an increase in the result to the
downside?

If that's the case, then the price will
go down.

So what do we see here?

First of all, the price gaps up quite
significantly.

And we really did not see this before.
From 95 to 96, this is where the price

opens. This is where the price closes.

So the intraday picture for this, and I
just wanted to show you this gap. Why?

Well, because there are no other gaps
around this area. I mean, 89 kind of

resembles in the spread.

the gap in the spread that's for sure uh
but there is nothing else really so gap

by itself becomes a bullish sign so this
means that overnight institutions are

trying to buy maybe it was an event like
earnings event and we're observing the

increase of the volume signature like
that so we open with the gap

and then what do we do next we go down
to the low

and we get them to the area of the
previous bar, which becomes intraday

But then we rally back.

So if this is the close of the previous
bar, so let's say close of bar zero,

open of one.

So as we get through this level,
somewhere here, you have to become

again on the intraday level.

And then we are just closing like this.

So whatever supply has come and
increased, what happened to it? Has it

observed by the end of this day?

Most likely.

We came back to the close and we are
kind of like having

one of the highest closes historically
here.

Where else have we closed?

higher. We closed higher at 74 and we
closed higher at 89. There were no other

higher closes on up bars that we've seen
so far. And that happened on the

extreme volume signature where we know
that this volume spike tells us that

supply has increased and yet we are
closing bullishly.

Closing bullishly.

I don't know if this is the correct
word, bullishly, if there is such a

We close bullish on that bar.

Doesn't that tell us something?

Isn't that a great piece of information
where so much supply comes?

Again, think about this. So much supply
comes on this bar.

supply comes in this area where supply
has come before and yet such a favorable

close. What does it mean?

Lots of buying behind.

And with such a big volume signature,
who's buying?

Only big institutions could buy at this
point.

We can't exhaust it. They are out of
this position. They don't want to see

stock because there is so much emotional
pain about it. All of these ups and

downs, all of these decisions.

We, on the contrary, are going to be
adding to this position on this bar if

we're extremely aggressive. So I'm
showing you all of the aggressive kind

like entries here.

So the first intraday entry would be
here, then at the close.

The next entry would be at the close
here.

Kind of aggressive conservative, so to
say.

Another entry here.

another entry on the way up, another
entry at the close, and then another

on the intraday as we go up right here.

We could also even consider opening the
position here. It's still a bullish bar.

It's still a sign of strength bar.

I could give you this bar in a slightly
different way.

Look at this.

How about this? Would you be buying this
type of bar?

Would you be buying the clothes of this
bar?

I probably would if it would look like
that, but I understand that, you know,

the clothes here is just at the same
level, and it's just the intraday

came in a different way.

That's it.

Okay, well, let's see what happens next.

Guys, and I think that at this point,
I'm just going to go because all these

questions are stopping me a little bit.
So let's just kind of go through this

whole thing, and then let's see what
kind of questions we have at the end.

Okay, so we're looking at 96.

We are in the position bar 97 has,
again, the highest volume signature.

Look at this volume signature.

What are you guys seeing here in this
area that the volume is so high?

I think that for some of you, there
might be a thought, well, the volume is

high, this is a volume spike, so supply
has increased.

That's correct.

The next question that you should be
asking, well, if I'm so bearish, then

me look at what? At the result.

And what is the result of this?

we are committing above all of the
levels of the resistance, and we have

progression of the closes above the
resistance, which suggests that this is

indeed a major sign of strength.

One of our targets could be a stopping
target for us at

100, and we would be thinking that,
yeah, indeed, we might be stopping here.

But the price has committed
significantly to the upside.

We have a very substantial profit at
this point of time. Think about all of

these positions that we have opened.

And here the decision is, what do you
want to do at this long -term

Do you want to sell or do you want to
hold?

I don't think that anybody in the group
should be thinking of buying here.

because we just came out of the trading
range, and that suggests some kind of

reaction. We just hit that long -term
resistance, so there is no buying here

us, but it's just a decision of whether
we are holding this position or whether

we are exiting it as a swing trade.

I will let you think about this on your
own.

What else are we seeing here?

Well, let's go through the structure
now.

Now that we're seeing a potential major
sign of strength, 91 is

not just a suggestion, but it's probably
already becoming more

of the reality, the way how the
character of the sign of strength has

The character, not the definition of the
sign of strength.

would suggest that the up spread is
going to increase, the volume signature

going to increase, the demand is going
to increase, and we're going to have the

result to the upside increasing a lot.

Those are the characteristics of the
sign of strength.

Those are not definitions.

Usually students come and when I ask
what is the definition of the sign of

strength, they give me the
characteristic.

The spread should increase, the volume,
the demand should increase.

This is not definitional.

This is just...

This is just the characteristics.

And we see that characteristics suggest
they confirm a major sign of strength.

So if this was C, we said that this was
A.

Everything in between is B.

And now we're just waiting for what?
We're waiting for some kind of coming

into the trading range, depending on
where we're going to come. Again, look

how I am.

devising different structural
strategies.

And this is where I see today where some
of you still need to improve.

Just thinking in terms of, yes, supply
is coming in, it's bearish, but it's

bearish short term. It's not necessarily
bearish long term. Long term will need

to prove itself that it's going to be
either bullish or bearish. We're seeing

more confirmation of being bullish.

that institution's on the long -term
bullish side than a short -term, than a

long -term bearish side. So therefore,
you're thinking different scenarios.

Would the supply push the reaction to
90, or would it push

the reaction to maybe like 53, 55,
something like this?

And it just depends on that type of the
reaction, what we're going to have here,

what kind of recovery we're going to
have.

We could have different type of
structures, a more bullish structure, a

bearish structure. So we just have to go
and just see what's going to happen.

But we definitely know that reaction is
going to come, not just structurally.

Look at the volume and price analysis.

Big spread, diminishing spread,
diminishing spread at 100.

We are seeing that the next attempt to
commit to the upside, less progress on

the close, suggesting...

the diminishing momentum, and then a
slight increase in the volume signature

suggests that supply has come.

Also, supply has increased on the
previous bar. So we have two bars where,

rather three bars, 98, demand is going
down, 99, supply is increasing,

100, supply is increasing.

The reaction is imminent.

Here we are. We're seeing next bar.

And it has that struggle between the
demand and supply.

We see that in the boss structure.

And the volume signature is relatively
high. So if we were thinking that this

was an attempt to push the price up, and
all of them are, right? 97, attempt to

push the price up above 90.

98, attempt to overcome all of this
resistance at 1997.

It did so.

Then 100 to push above again. It did so.

101, another attempt to push up off the
initial selling

on the intraday basis.

And we cannot do this. We can't go
higher.

The next two bars, diminishing supply
signature and yet ease

of movement to the downside.

on two bars, suggesting that demand is
exhausted.

And where is it exhausted?

Again, in the area of the long -term
resistance.

Another way of thinking about why this
exhaustion of demand happens is that,

think about where institutions are
buying, like huge institutions.

They were buying here, here, here, here.

here, and I'm just outlining the biggest
bars.

And then after that, they are done.

They are not buying anymore.

This is the value zone for them right
now.

After that, everything, what comes next,
there are some institutional buying

here, but this is more of buying of the
late institutional

buy. They are going to be in a very
peculiar position when the buying climax

happens. And that's why I always say
that the breakout of the major sign of

strength is not a great way to buy this.
Imagine that you bought right on the

breakout. Where is your stop loss?
Really quickly tell me, where is your

loss?

On the breakout here, if you are buying
the breakout.

Is this maybe like this bar right here,
99, the low of 99 just being

slightly lower. Let's just put it right
here, right? So this could be that

place.

So the amateurs are going to feel really
good on the way up to 101.

They're going to be in profit. But then
let's just see what's going to happen

next.

They would be out of this position.

Even if you do one half of this bar, or
let's say maybe just slightly

below the close of this bar, you're
still out.

So therefore, think twice of doing the
breakout buy trade

on a major sign of strength like that.

And even Eric is saying below 97.

Yeah, that's a good...

Good position, but even this, you could
see, this is very close.

You could have gotten out, be gotten out
at that point just on some kind of

spring. It's not like it's going to
close below it. It's just going to

you out like this and then come back,
and you could be out.

So there is no reason to buy at this
spot just because of what comes next on

potential backing up action.

Well, let's look at the backing up
action itself.

So what do we see? Well, we see how
closes are progressing to the downside.

And yet, there is slowing of that
progression at the end. We're seeing

signature going down.

And that is, if we would take this whole
major sign of strength rally,

That happens into one half of that
rally.

That looks extremely bullish. Why
bullish as well is because demand is

so big in the comparison to the supply.

Demand dominates supply at this point,
not only on the volume signature, but

also on the result signature as well.

So we're still long -term bullish, and
we're short -term.

at this point we're going to be short
-term bearish. Why?

Okay, well, we're thinking this is the
largest supply that came after this

reaction, so we see an increase of the
supply.

That usually dictates that we are going
to have some kind of test.

So that test, after a higher high,
probably going to come as a higher low.

And higher high here is actually a
really good sign.

because it takes less of an effort to
have a higher high

this is extremely bullish this tells us
that there is no selling

at this resistance level all of the
supply has

been observed and whatever supply is
left You know, that's what's going to

us down. So we're probably going to have
a higher low rather than a lower low in

this range. And we're probably going to
have this higher low, and then we're

going to go up.

So we will have to think, you know,
tactically as to how we're going to get

into this position and increase our
size.

Well, one of the things, obviously,
right here, so this would be a point of

entry. This could be a point of entry.

So we could have one, two, three, four.

five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10.

So this is potential entry number 10.
And I'll outline them later.

But if the price comes back to the high
low, we could have somewhere entry right

here as well. So we want to load out
because we've seen that institutions

definitely want to get in into this
position very badly and very fast.

there is an urgency with which they are
getting into this position.

And this means for the long -term trend,
this is going to be extremely bullish.

Think about this as well.

Who got in in this trading range?

I mean, it's been developing for quite
some time. We don't really see a lot of

institutions. This is more selling.

We don't see a lot of institutions
coming in into this position until bar

91.

So if early institutional money managers
got in into this position on

the way up, think about late
institutions that are still not in this

And what if this position is just going
to go up? It's going to outperform the

market.

I'm sorry, there is a...

comment here from lee that my voice
breaks up sometimes so that might be a

connection guys i'm sorry i apologize
hopefully that just fully you know and

let me know if the connection is not
that great or i need to adjust my

microphone or speak up or something like
that so think

about those late institutions that

Still not in this position.

As the price starts showing absolute and
relative performance, what do

you think is going to happen next?

All of those institutions would want to
be in this position, and they're going

to start buying, and that's going to
produce a big move to the upside.

So let's see how the backing up action
develops.

Okay, so we're seeing that hesitation.

Bar number 108 shows some synchronicity
where the volume is

increasing and the result is increasing
to the downside.

So that's bearish, but that's bearish on
the short term.

This short -term bearishness cannot
negate the long -term bullish picture.

Why? Well, because think about all of
the institutions that bought at 91 and,

you know, and throughout 100.

Did they get out of this position at
108?

Do you see this in the volume signature?

Do you see this in the result?

No, we don't see that.

So therefore, we are assuming that it's
going to be a short -term bearish

reaction, and we said that, yeah, we
probably would be looking for some kind

high or low.

109 confirms that the reaction is going
to happen. The volume signature goes

down relative to the previous demand and
does not produce a commitment above the

high of bar number 108, the previous
bar.

So that suggests that the demand is 4.
There's just no demand at this point,

short term, and we're going to have a
reaction.

We're still thinking high or low
reaction. Let's look at that.

Here's that reaction, and I love 111.

Why? Because on a lot of volume
signature, it's kind of like the same as

104.

We have those spikes, but what happens?

There is buying into the close.

There is buying into the close.

Even 101, there is buying into the
close. 99, there is buying into the

96, there is buying into the close.

This is what we would love to see on a
bearish day that we could possibly

have. 91, the same, buying into the
close.

at 111 is actually extremely bullish
bar, and we're looking at the

of the closest to the downside, we're
still in this area.

We're still at like one half of the
rally between 107 and 104.

And maybe I'm just thinking,

The volume is so confusing because it
hides the signature of both demand and

supply, and it's really hard for us to
see that. We have to develop that skill

of seeing that.

And then the price candles also not a
great representation of

what actually happens by the end of the
session, right? Because you look at the

tail, and a lot of you are becoming...

somewhat bearish.

But we have to see the high and the low
because that defines the price action

for us during the day and that gives us
an information.

It's a very valuable information that we
see such a good rally into the close of

bar number 111.

Number 112, we're trying to commit above
the high here. We can't commit and

the volume signature is not that great.

Okay, well, maybe there is some kind of
ease of movement, but for the ease of

movement, we need to commit above the
high, and we're kind of right there.

So it reminds me more of this bar right
here. I believe it was 53 than anything

else. So we're probably still going to
retest, and what are we retesting?

Probably we're retesting field supply
and 1 and 11.

So just some kind of retest right here,
and then a continuation to the upside.

We want to make sure that we're going to
add the position on that retest, that

we're going to add the position on the
way up, and now we could add the

on the actual breakout rather than what
we've done here, right? So we don't want

this breakout by.

We want the breakout by after the
backing up action when...

supply is observed at the level of the

resistance.

That's what we want to buy.

Okay, so that's the plan.

Let's go and see how we can implement
this.

Okay, great reaction into swing 31.

Look at the spread. The spread is
diminishing again. What do we see in

the progression of the closes to the
downside?

Look at all of this.

Nothing, right? So we're still in this
area. We're still not going below even

these levels right here.

We are at the high or low level on the
closes.

And every time there is, you know, an
attempt to go below these

levels, there is a recovery.

There is a recovery.

There is a recovery.

There is a recovery. Recovery.

Recovery. Recovery.

So it's as if when we go into the short
-term oversold condition, every time

institutions are buying, they are
picking up shares at the short

-term oversold condition where there is
a short -term value for them for their

long -term bullish scenario.

So where is our next entry? We would be
thinking after this reaction into swing

number 31.

that any close above these levels right
here or going through, you could buy on

the intraday level, you could buy this
close, you could buy this close, then

could buy the breakout if it happens.

So we're already into this position
quite significantly on

quite a lot of points of entry.

All of those, one, two, three, four,
five, six, seven, eight, nine.

10, 11, 12, possibly 13.

Okay, let's see. Ooh, look at that.
Would we not have that breakout strategy

working? We probably would not get in on
this bar.

And look at that bar.

So beautiful. How would you feel on that
day?

All of this work would pay off.

And here is a question of the day what
do you do here

so

let's have the poll here do we sell take
profit

do we hold and kind of go through maybe
a volatility that could come

um

Or what? Do we hold?

Do we sell?

Do we add to the position?

Think about this for a second and let me
know. Write it down.

Okay, so we're definitely again divided.

Sell, take partial profit, hold. Take
some profit but hold the rest for long

term. Take my money and run, hold.

I'm long term, I'd hold. If short term,
I'd sell my position.

Sell a position, re -enter on a
pullback.

And I think that all of the answers are
correct because they're going to

reflect your trading style, your trading
personality, your time frame.

So I'm going to divide this into two
segments.

If we're a long -term investor, and this
is the

predominant position for us that we've
talked about, where we opened here,

here, here, here, here, here, here,

here, here, here, here, here, here, and
then here.

So this is number 13, position number
13. And think about this.

Let's just say that you're buying 100
shares at each position, right, at each

place.

Shares at each entry.

You don't want to put there like 50 or
100 ,000 right away into this position,

no.

You want to be deliberate in the way how
you accumulate and act only on a

confirmation. All of these entries are
based on confirmation of a certain

principle that we've discussed.

So therefore, I would be in 1300 into
this position. So just think about maybe

like, you know,

and move from 20 to maybe like $40 from
one point of entry to the point of

entry number 13.

That's your commitment.

Now, for the long -term investor,

we would be thinking about what? We
would be thinking about

causality. And our cause is all of this.

and then all of this.

So and think also about institutions
that started buying here, right? So this

one month, second month, third month,
fourth month that they're in

this position.

Do you think that institutions that have
billions and trillions of dollars is

gonna exit the position in four months?

Do you think they would be interested in
the stock where they go in and then

they exit so fast?

And by big institutions, I mean like
Warren Buffett type. Do you think that

Buffett would be exiting this position
in four months, even if he has so much

profit, even if the stock doubled?

Unlikely. This is not who they are. This
is not...

what they can do.

Because of their size, they can't move
so fast.

For some of their clients, like net
worth clientele, the long -term tax

strategy has to be such that you have to
hold on to certain assets for over a

year.

And obviously,

getting in and out so fast will produce
so much volatility, the profits will

corrode.

If they're going to start selling at
this point of time, they might have the

bar that's probably going to be like
this.

They don't want to do that. And
obviously there is some selling that's

on this bar.

But that's also overcoming a long -term
resistance.

Think about the long -term breakout
here.

And on this long -term breakout, we
probably have some kind of late

institutional buy -in that comes in and
just capitulates

on this idea in the sense that they have
to be in this idea right now.

And usually, in a lot of cases, This
type of long -term breakout

does not define the ending of the move.

It actually defines, if not the
beginning, but yet could be like not

middle point of this whole trend.

Because those institutions that are
getting in still now, they still would

to hold on to the stock for a
considerable period of time because they

thinking about...

Long -term strategists, they're thinking
about turnover in their portfolio, and

they're thinking about higher valuation
for this stock.

For them, what has happened is just the
emergence of the uptrend.

I mean, realistically, where is the end
of this move?

If we only have had one higher low and
one area

with a higher high and higher low.

First time it has happened.

This is where the trend has been
confirmed.

So their systems and scans are
screaming, new trend, new

trend.

You got to get in.

So this bar is exactly that.

They are getting in on that signal.

And some of them are going to do this.

So for instance, institutional signal is
going to look like this.

It's going to create some kind of, you
know, describe some kind of environment.

And then in this environment, there's
going to be some kind of

trend confirmation.

And then there's going to be some kind
of tradable.

So they're gradually gonna recognize the
opportunity, confirm

the new trend, and then get in into the
position.

And that's exactly what's happening
here. So for the long -term investor,

are 1 ,300 into this position, there is
nothing else to do but just to enjoy

this day and just hope that we're going
to have a continuation of this day and

not the reaction right away. But if we
have a reaction, we do want to see some

kind of absorption that's going to
happen. That's going to confirm that the

trend is going to continue and we're not
done.

For the short -term swing trader, this
could

be the place to consider getting out.

And I would be thinking here about the
momentum.

Look at this momentum that we started to
have.

On the second move to the upside, we're
probably having a much better momentum

than on the first move to the upside.

So if we're contextually thinking that
there was a breakout right here and the

price still went up,

We're probably thinking that the price
should go up as well, and it probably

should go up much better just because of
how much better the price travels

to the upside, and it travels from a
higher level, and it travels from the

where supply has been observed.

Look at all of this supply right here.

It's just going down gradually as the
price starts to go up in the opposite

direction.

between the force to the downside and
the result.

Everything looks bullish. So we want to
get out, but we want to get out at the

best price here on the swing. So I would
probably measure this bar, the latest

bar.

And I would say, okay, where is my one
half?

I want to have the stop loss just below
that.

So this is my swing exit.

I could take some profit here as well.

There is really nothing wrong about
that. I think that for a swing trade,

is a really good profit, so take it. If
this is your style, just take it.

And for those of you who are capable of

waiting to see what momentum is gonna
bring, just stay in this position.

and then just move the stop loss as the
price moves up.

Okay, so here are the next two bars.

So we didn't go down. We did not, this
bar right here, you cannot see it really

well, but this is it right here. It's
kind of like this.

No, I think it's this, like that.

Nothing really happens, but supply comes
in, and we're seeing that the result to

the downside is not that great.

So supply is being observed.

Therefore, short term bullish.

We still want to stay in this position.
Next bar, supply comes in again. The

price goes up first, then comes back,
closes at this level. So yes, some

increase.

And here we would be thinking, okay,
yes, we could develop that reaction.

So let's tie up.

you know the stop loss so maybe from
here we might put it somewhere here just

below this bar right here what if we
have a continuation and then the move up

we don't want to be caught up in this so
somewhere here and i frankly i would

just keep it below right here and just
allow the price to show me a little bit

more and i'm basing this on the test
right We've talked about

how supply occurs in the test and how it
reacts.

We could have different tests. We could
have this big bar and then the test down

and then a recovery.

So we don't want to be caught up in
this.

But look at how here on the next day the
test is just so mediocre.

So we still would prefer to stay.

Okay, and this is what happens next. So
right away we see that there is no

progression to the downside.

And this is extremely bullish.

This is basically a reaction on the
upside.

If we look at the intraday picture, it
would look something like this.

So we are in the trading range, which is
up sloping.

And now I'm thinking, if this is a
reaction,

upsloping reaction, and we don't see a
lot of emergence of supply.

I should say no significant supply.

And it doesn't produce the result to the
downside.

So this is still extremely bullish.

And that suggests that the rally is
gonna continue.

If rally is to continue for a swing
trader, which is going to look for

opportunity to enter, why wouldn't we?

And I'm thinking that one -to -one, this
could be a move like that.

Think about the momentum here that we
have had.

Institutions are getting in.

Institutions are getting in again.

So all of this supply that we have seen
is being observed so quickly and so much

on the way up, absorption on the way up.

Okay, so then I'm looking at these bars
and I'm thinking, okay, one, two, three,

four, five, six.

And this bar, again, I'm seeing the same
characteristics buying into the close,

buying into the close. This could be a
phase C in the smaller range. We would

have to look at the intraday.

Let's imagine that we're just getting
into this position if there is a

right here to the upside of this closing
open.

So if the price goes up, we'll add to
the position.

This could be also, you know, long -term
investor strategy as well. Not

necessarily, but it could be.

And here we would be adding less shares.

then you know on any on the way up we
were adding by 100 shares we could just

add another hundred let's see what
happens next okay so breakout we

in in the position right here and again
we look at this bar yes there is some

supply that's coming in but it's not a
big distributional pattern

not a distributional

supply signature here by any means.

In fact, the bar goes up, it looks very
bullish.

This smallest reaction could suggest
that we are going to have some kind of

reaction, but think about how reactions
have developed before in this

uptrend. So you can't really think about
these situations anymore because why?

This is a trading range.

You have to think about this situation
and this situation and this situation.

Why?

Because this is an uptrend.

It's a different environment. You can't
compare anything to the trading range

anymore.

You're only comparing the movements that
are in the new environment.

So how did the tops develop?

They usually would require some time,
would have some kind of stopping.

action first and then some supply might
occur so and this is what we're looking

for right a possible stop in action low
supply is it the possible

stop in action so this is how we're
stopping the supply maybe so i

would just see i would just wait as to
you know what kind of bar we're going to

have next

And my stop loss probably would be just
below this bar right here for a swing

trade. So this is a stop loss swing.

And then I would have a stop loss, long
-term stop loss right here.

We'll talk about this. There was a
question here from Justin. Will we go

-depth on interest in this course?

Yes, we are going to have one session
where we're going to talk about the

Wyckoff trading plan.

And there we'll talk about the interest
also. I will show you Wyckoff entries

and what I've developed for myself.

And in the practical, this is where
we're going to go into much more

This is where the depth of this
understanding of the point of interest

to be developed.

But for now, these are the stop losses
that I would be thinking of.

If we're going to have some kind of
bearish action, swing trade is out

immediately.

Let's see what happens next.

Oh, well, this is where we were.

And I'm so happy that we didn't react
right away to some

minor signs of supply on the tail.

Again, you're in such a bullish pattern.
Why would you be thinking about bearish

picture on such a smaller scale? You
should be thinking that every time.

We have some short -term supply coming
in. It's going to be observed.

And until it's not, that's when you're
going to get out of the position, right?

You need to see a change of character, a
change of behavior to

confirm that you need to get out.

You don't have to take the profit right
away. If anything, the majority of

amateur traders are...

getting out of the positions, of winning
positions, not losing positions, but

winning positions, much faster than they
should.

If we would have get out on this bar for
a swing trade, we would not enjoy this

round.

And I think it's on this bar right here,
this is where we are starting to be

a little bit concerned because this is
where the volume signature is so high.

And we had the previous bar that was a
really great bar for us. It reminds us

this bar right here. It reminds us maybe
of this bar right here.

Those are like concluding bars.

Those are the bars that come before the
reaction.

And we see that the next bar, we have
that increase in the volume signature.

This is the third highest volume bar.

And yet, even with that, look what
supply can do.

So we've traveled all of this, and yet
we reacted and closed

on that bar and negated only this much.

We're in the topper portion of this
reaction. And then again, next bar,

buying into the close, next bar, buying
into the close,

but the largest supply.

is being shown to us.

So this is where we definitely could
consider for a swing trader to get

out.

Whether you are getting out on this bar
right here, on the next bar, or on the

next bar, it doesn't really matter.

You have enough profit here to boast
about this trade for the rest of your

If you would conduct this type of trade,

let's say up to here, this is going to
be a fantastic trade.

For the long -term investor, I think
it's reasonable to start thinking about

maybe taking some profits.

But at the same time, I think also the
long -term investor will be questioning

whether this is still a good stock long
-term. Again, think about

what has transpired here.

In about...

one, two, three, four, five months,
we've made so much progress

to the upside.

We have made so much money.

Do you think that institutions are going
to get out those Warren Buffett types?

Probably not. They're probably going to
start distributing at the point of

extreme valuation.

And this could be just a short -term
spike where we could have some kind of

reaction, maybe a reaccumulation range,
and they still would hold on to the

supply. They would not present it. So
it's through the trading range that's

going to create the distributional
qualities.

This is where the long -term investor
will make that decision to close out

position completely. We still don't have
that.

Even the short -term bars here.

have bullish characteristics rather than
long -term bullish characteristics and

short -term bearish characteristics
rather than short -term bearish and long

-term bearish.

So there is no synchronicity in the time
frames for the downward movement.

But the only thing that this picture
suggests is that we're going to have

kind of either reaction or a trading
range. And it's in this trading range,

is where we need to decide what we're
going to do.

if the distribution is developing.

Okay, well, let's see.

Ooh, that doesn't look distributional.

That actually looks maybe like a trading
range, maybe phase

A, maybe phase B type of upthrust.

So we're seeing how the demand signature
is diminishing, but whatever supply has

come in, it's only on one bar.

There is nothing else.

So therefore, we are thinking that maybe
like with the backing up action, we're

going to have some kind of reaction to
the downside

and maybe to the support area as well.
So either a

trading range or maybe a high, low, and
a continuation.

So we'll have to see. If there's going
to be a continuation, we're probably

going to reestablish a swing position.

Here is that.

trading range idea or a reaction idea.

We see how supply is diminishing.

The spread is diminishing as well.

So that's bullish again.

That probably suggests a higher low
rather than a trading range.

So if we're going to get out, we want to
open a position somewhere here and then

we want to open the position somewhere
here.

For the long -term investor, you don't
have to do anything. You could just kind

of enjoy it.

have your stop loss below a very
significant commitment to the

upside. That would be your given up
catastrophic stop loss point.

Let's see what happens.

Okay, so we would get into this position
on this bar and then right here. And

this would be a swing position.

I've slowed in trading range.

which reminds us of the previous analog,
suggesting that we still might actually

have another move to the upside.

If it's going to be a climactic move,
then we are definitely out.

Even the long -term investor would be
thinking at that point that this is just

too much too fast.

So let's see what happens.

Here we are.

Here is that last two points of entries
for us.

and a big, big, big run to the upside.

And on this run, we would be looking at
all of these bars and we would be

thinking, okay,

the bar with

the largest volume signature

usually would suggest some kind of top
information that is coming.

And look how we're still continuing to
the upside, but the demand is

diminishing. So here we're just using
simple stop loss movement

strategies where we're just moving the
stop loss based on the low and one half

of the bar, depending on how you're
going to manage this bar.

You still could be in this position.

Right here, this is that break to the
downside.

This is stop loss number two.

And a red bar, a reactionary bar, could
be a stop loss or

rather exit number one. And then on the
way up, you could

play this.

You could start playing this more on the

intraday basis as the price goes up and
exit it somewhere here as there is an

attempt to go up and then the reversal.

There are quite a lot of methods here
that you could use to get out.

But let's just say for the long -term
trader, we want to see the signs

of the distribution.

We still would not see the signs of the
distribution on the way up.

We see the climactic run,

which suggests a

stop in action and suggests a trading
range.

And then we have to figure out what the
bias is.

And if the bias is bearish, we want to
get out, exit

the position at the most optimal places.

Okay, so let's say swing trader is out.

Then the long -term investor, what are
we doing here?

Well, look at this bar.

What is this bar on such volume
signature? This is the highest supply

throughout this whole chart.

We see the synchronicity of immense

effort to the downside.

with the largest downward result.

And this bar acts as a change of
character bar.

It also acts as a part of a possible
automatic rally,

I'm sorry, reaction, either in the
reaccumulation or a distribution.

The volume signature and the way how the
effort is synced with the results such

as that this might be a distribution.

If this is a distribution, then for the
long -term investor, our most optimal

exit points are actually not right here.
If we didn't exit it right here, we're

losing a lot of ground here.

So what we want to do is we want to see
where the automatic reaction is going to

end, and then we want to get out on the
way up into the secondary test.

Now, thinking about this whole move to
the upside, we're definitely thinking

that this is a leadership stock.

So with the leadership stock
distribution, we're usually going to

picture where we're going to see some
kind of higher highs, higher lows

environment just because of this whole
move up and how much short -term value

being observed by weekends.

So the best points of exit in the
leadership stock is going to be above

of the climactic action, around the area
where the upthrust happens.

So we want to get out somewhere here now
that we missed that opportunity. If not

here, then here, or maybe here.

And obviously the most optimal is just
going to be exiting right here and just

be done with this, go away.

We don't need a better price.

Because the time in this position is
going to play not in our favor, not only

from the optimal point of view in terms
of when we exit, but also in terms of

the increased volatility that we could
see in the trading range as people start

dumping their positions.

So we don't want to be caught up in that
volatility, but we already are if we

didn't exit it earlier. So let's just
assume that we haven't.

Okay, here we go. Next couple of bars.

Into the close, buying into the close,
buying into the close, buying into the

close, first time sink.

So this means that most likely from here
we're going to go up.

And we are. You could exit here, but
again, thinking about the leadership

characteristics, it's better to wait
when the price comes back and exit

somewhere here.

rather than in the middle of the trading
range, right? Because now we're

thinking this is the range right here.

Okay, well, let's look at some of the
bars here. I

mentioned that there is a buying into
the close.

This bar actually is really good. That
suggests that there is short -term

momentum to the upside.

So that suggests that we might actually
touch this high.

Supply signature is diminishing, so the
test could be as a high or low.

So maybe something like this. So our
goal is just to get to this point.

Here we are.

Next bar at the end of swing 37.

Again, increasing the volume signature,
suggesting that there is an increase in

the demand, and then buying into the
close, so that's great.

Confirmation, confirmation,
confirmation, and here we are.

So it's right here where we might be
thinking, okay, well, now let's look at

this whole reaction.

I mean, we could just literally relax a
little bit if we're a long -term

investor and we're still holding about,
what, 1 ,500 of shares at this point.

Why are we so relaxed here? Well, we're
not so relaxed. We are very alert.

But we are relaxed that the price where
we were supposed to get out is actually

above that point.

And this is the moment where greed is
going to come in and you're going to

hmm.

Maybe not.

Okay, well, you know, you could hold on
to this. Maybe there's going to be

another opportunity to get out. But
again, it's all about the efficiency at

point of time.

When you look at the initial reaction,
what do you see?

Almost all of the gains that we have had
on the previous rally have been

negated.

So this is a bearish sign.

And it happened on somewhat of a
significant volume signature.

Remember back then when we looked at the
distribution signature, we had a

climactic run into, I believe, point
number 13 or 14.

Was it that? No, that was around 30, I
believe.

And then we had multiple bars that
looked like this. And then we've talked

the consistent selling on

a change of character.

And it looked like this.

They are selling, selling, selling,
selling.

And then they stopped selling.

So they sold some of their position.

You could clearly see this. This is only
institutions that could produce that

type of price signature, you know,
together with the volume signature here.

So they sold.

Then there is a test, successful test
that suggests a short -term rally.

And as the price goes up, we would be
expecting that there's going to be some

more selling because what they are
basically doing, As the price goes up,

they're saying, oh, okay, let's sell
into the strength.

And they sell into this strength as the
price goes up, and then the selling

continues. And at some point, it starts
to produce the movement to the downside

because the buyers no longer can support
all of the selling by the CEO.

And that's when

synchronicity becomes so evident that on
the selling by institutions, the price

moves down. When this happens, what do
you think they're going to do?

They're going to stop selling.

Well, there is still some selling here,
but generally they're going to start

selling less because they see how the
price is becoming unattractive to them

sell at those levels.

they want better pricing. So they're
going to stop selling for a second. And

that's what's going to produce
diminishing supply signature.

And with that, the price is going to
start traveling up.

But once it's again in the area of where
they started selling, they might start

selling again.

So they are selling in the specific
price levels on the way up and on the

down. So now they could be starting
selling again on the way up on this

bar. And then on the way down, let's see
if that is actually what's going to

happen. Okay, yes.

So both of the bars see some selling.

There is some buying as well right here.

These two bars have some selling behind
it. We just committed temporarily,

and then we instantly came back into the
trading range below the resistance.

What does this remind you of?

An upthrust.

Okay, now we're thinking, okay, where
are we in terms of the structure of

A? Up thrust usually is a function of
phase B.

Okay, and now we're seeing a higher
high, a higher low.

So maybe this is more of the like up
sloping structure, something like this.

So if we're going to go down, we might
create another higher low. Again, think

about the leadership stock and how the
leadership stocks are being distributed.

and then maybe go if this is phase b
maybe go into phase c right here

like this so we have to mitigate our
position i would

say that probably at this point of time
we're either out or if you're more

conservative you could just say okay
well give me the last chance you know

me out somewhere here in the middle of
the range this is not the most efficient

place but still You have a lot of
profit.

Somebody might be waiting for phase C.

My preference is always be all about
efficiency, right? So get out here. If

cannot get out at this two spots, start
getting out right here based on your

analysis. And that's it.

Okay. Well, let's assume that we are
out.

And we're seeing that this high -low
reaction.

is just still suggesting that there is
still some value, short -term value,

for some of the institutions.

And this could be weak hands value.

And as the price gets out, we are maybe
even getting nervous. Did we

make a mistake? There is so much
momentum here. Could it just actually go

higher on the same type of move?

and then we're not in the position so um
where is that you know uh doubt on

is going to go away on on which
confirmation well looking at the volume

signature what we're seeing is that if
this is the breakout it happens on

diminishing volume signature so then the
question is why

is of movement not on the breakout we
don't want to see this on the breakout

probably when the volume goes down and
the price commits like this, it's

probably all about weak hands trying to
push the price up like this on their

buys.

We still see that there are a lot of
institutional selling has happened here.

And the next thing, if this is a
distribution,

We need to see one thing to happen
before we open, let's say, a short

We need to see a synchronicity between

increased effort to the

downside and increased result to the
downside.

At this point, we're going to define the
timing of our

short position point of entry.

This would be the key for us.

We don't see it yet.

It's more feels like we had a big run
up.

Some of the institutional selling came
in and the weak hands are trying to push

the price up just based on the previous
leadership characteristics.

This is not enough for us because we
want whatever supply has came in.

to be tested at the same price level, so
close to that, and to have some kind of

institutional volume signature.

Okay, so let's see what happens next.

Okay, big bar to the downside. Again,
this is something that we don't

necessarily want to see in a bullish
scenario, right? We said that at the

of swing number 38,

The price commits temporarily to the
upside and then comes back into the

range. On swing number 40, commits to
the upside on diminishing volume

and then instantly comes back as a
reversal bar and closing below the low

of the previous bar on even lower supply
signature.

So this is your...

true ease of movement when the price
commits to the downside this is not an

of movement because the price did not
commit below it only tried to do so in

intraday and then came back into the
close here we are closing below so what

does that suggest ease of movement it
says that demand is poor at this point

supply dimension supply

can move the price down.

Bullish or bearish?

Definitely bearish.

But if this is bearish, still think
upthrust that we might have

some kind of test here.

And the reason why I'm saying this, the
test should come, is just because of the

still leadership characteristics of what
we see.

Imagine a lot of people are still in
this position because they're

this. a higher high, higher low uptrend
situation.

And we can't blame them because I think
as much as technical analysis

is trying to establish itself in the
field of finance as a relevant and

source of the analysis outcome type of
approach,

there are a lot of beliefs.

that over 100 years were confirmed and
reconfirmed by so many teachers,

believes in technical analysis that if
it's a higher high, higher low, it's an

uptrend. But what it doesn't say is such
belief that even in those type of

contextual situations where we see
higher highs and higher lows, we still

be in the distribution.

And oh boy, there are so many examples
of this.

even in the most recent move to the
downside that we had into the December

Go to those charts in that area, in that
period, and look at those charts again.

Look at the stocks like Navadir, you
know, that has been a leadership stock

years and years and years.

Look at the distribution that took place
there. Look at Apple.

That was going up for years and years
and decades, really.

And look at the distribution right
there.

And it's still a short -term
distribution. We still don't know what's

happen next because there are some
bullish characteristics there. This

just a reaction in a still much longer
trend. We still need to figure this out.

But one of the things that I'm trying to
change in your mental

approach to the analysis is the way what
you see

and what you think about that.

What looks bullish does not necessarily
is bullish. What looks extremely bearish

is not necessarily too bearish.

And this chart, it just has so many
examples of this type of dilemma.

Okay, well, we've seen that, again, the
up thrust suggesting a move to the

downside. In this case, I would say that
probably better reaction than what

we've seen on SWIN 38.

Why? Well, because this bar had some
demand signature behind it.

This bar does not have demand.

And therefore, we would be thinking that
there's going to be a continuation to

the downside, maybe into the area of the
previous low, maybe another higher low,

but this reaction should be a little bit
better than the previous reaction.

Okay, well maybe so.

Yeah, I would say so. Yeah, this bar
also kind of like defined. We might not

even done with this reaction.

But a high, a low, big spread.

Here is a diminishing spread.

Here is the spread is increasing.

And look at the volume signature.

Now finally we have that synchronicity.
So I would say that this is the first

time when the volume signature supply is
increasing.

and the result is slightly increasing,
but increasing.

So that slight increase of the result,
and maybe close, a bind into the

close, bind into the close here, still
might suggest a retest, still might

suggest maybe some kind of rally into
this high, maybe into this high right

here, some kind of test, and then a
final capitulation.

So it's right here.

This is the spot for us to enter.

This is the spot for us to enter on the
breakout.

Maybe this is the spot where we might
have a major sign of weakness,

LPSY, and we want to enter. So maybe
like three spots where we could enter.

And then if the price is going to start
going down, think about all of the

institutions that are still in this
position. What are they going to do?

They're going to capitulate.

The velocity should increase on this
move to the upside.

Momentum should increase on this move to
the downside because institutions

are going to capitulate and there should
be some kind of big bars,

especially somewhere in this area right
here where we see that capitulation.

It should be a big bar to the downside
and the volume signature should be high.

Okay, well, let's see if we could
execute the strategy.

Okay, a test comes at 42.

Between 42, we are committing above the
short -term resistance, but we

can't overcome the long -term
resistance.

And then the next up bar closes lower,
even though we tried to

go higher. And then...

adjust the continuation to the downside
another higher low the volume signature

diminishes you know if we would be
comparing it like this uh but look at

demand so look at all of this latest
rally swing number 40

swing number 42 swing number 44 if the
price is to reverse here and

this is the end of the swing

then what are we seeing with the result
to the upside?

Diminishment. And that happens on what?
On what kind of demand signature?

Very mediocre average demand.

So that suggests that demand is in weak
hands.

And we saw the first synchronicity.

between downward effort and downward
result.

So this probably is acting more as a
test as we thought.

So any type of again, you know, failure
here, we want to get in, break out, we

want to get in, break out, we want to
get in, and then some kind of last point

of supply we want to get in.

Okay, so here is this bar on the
intraday. We could open a position right

This could be our first point of entry
to the downside, second point of entry,

third point of entry.

And here we would be thinking that all
of the stop losses will be here. So you

just have to scale in correctly into
this position.

Okay, let's see what happens next. And
obviously, again, synchronicity for the

second time.

We have everything synced, effort and
the result to the downside. So this

now more as a top information where we
had higher highs, higher lows

environments, and now we're having lower
highs, lower lows environment.

A change of behavior, a change of
character.

Increasing volume signature, increasing
supply, increasing result to the

downside.

Distribution.

And here we are.

Okay, so our points of entry are going
to be here, here, here.

Sign of weakness, LPSY, very quick, just
because the capitulation happened so

quick. And look at this volume
signature.

This bar, because of this bar right
here, this bar actually was the largest

supply. So this is where, in this area
right here, this is where the

institutional capitulation happens.

Those late institutions that they are
realizing that that's it, the party is

over, and they need to get out of this
position.

Please note, when we say institutions
are capitulating, it sounds kind of like

little bit negative, right?

But in reality, they are making money
there because a lot of them got in right

here.

So this is their trade.

And it's still probably in the hundreds
percent.

probably like two to 300 % that they
made here on this trade.

And obviously, different axes would
define different profitability,

efficiency, and so on and so forth. But
even here, people are still making money

on the position.

All right, guys, that's it.

Thank God we're done with this exercise.

Yeah, this is a very long exercise.

And I'm actually somewhat exhausted, so
why don't we stop here for today, and

then next class we'll start with the
relative and comparative analysis.

Homework will be only one homework.

Please go and re -listen, re -watch all
of the videos of this exercise.

Make notes, send those notes to me.

And if you even don't make the notes,
but you have time to do the homework,

Watch the recordings again.

Go through all of those even as you
watch.

Notice the pieces of information that
maybe you have not noticed before.

Maybe something that was said and your
mind just could not take it all.

I mean, even today, going through this
whole analysis of this run -up

and the distribution.

And as you could see, this case study
could be, of course, on its own. I mean,

like it's just so long, and it just
makes so much sense to go through the

price cycle like this.

But a lot of information, I'm sure, is
lost in your minds. So go re -watch the

videos, and then the next session is all
going to be devoted to the relative and

comparative analysis.

All right, guys, I think that's it for
today. Let's see if we have some kind of

closing comments, questions.

Maybe we could address that.

Then we'll stop.

I feel like I'm losing my voice.

Questions, comments?

Okay, so I don't see anything.

Okay.

Okay, it's just some comments. Okay,
great. Thank you, Philip.

Okay, guys, until next week, and we'll
do

our relative comparative analysis. We'll
start with the new material.

Thank you so much, and I'll see you next
week. Thank you, guys.

Bye -bye.