All language subtitles for Session 04-WTC (Jan 28, 2019)

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Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:01,029 --> 00:00:05,270 Hello, everyone. Today is January 28th, and this is our session number four of 2 00:00:05,270 --> 00:00:06,270 the Wyckoff Trading Course. 3 00:00:07,310 --> 00:00:13,950 Just FYI, I am sick. I'm not feeling well, so I do not know how long I can 4 00:00:13,950 --> 00:00:20,810 go on with the class. Maybe I'll feel that as I start talking 5 00:00:20,810 --> 00:00:24,210 more, it kind of comes back to me and I have more energy. 6 00:00:25,050 --> 00:00:27,190 I'm totally on drugs right now. 7 00:00:29,180 --> 00:00:32,840 And, you know, hopefully that will just carry me through the class. If we can't 8 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:37,980 finish, you know, at least two hours or two and a half hours, then, you know, 9 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:42,620 I'll just find some time to extend other classes and we'll just compensate for 10 00:00:42,620 --> 00:00:44,540 the lost time like that. 11 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,900 All right. Having said this, I'm excited to be here. 12 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:54,460 I went through your homework again just because I've been feeling so bad, 13 00:00:54,580 --> 00:00:56,860 especially today and throughout the whole weekend. 14 00:00:58,520 --> 00:00:59,780 I looked at your homework. 15 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:04,019 So I opened all of them. I have not answered all of you. 16 00:01:04,620 --> 00:01:08,540 So that's kind of like, you know, what's going on. 17 00:01:10,060 --> 00:01:16,820 My overall impression of the homework was that we're definitely on a good 18 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:22,160 There are some of the mistakes that are common mistakes. 19 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,460 We'll talk about this as we review the distribution homework. 20 00:01:26,330 --> 00:01:31,170 Hopefully, we'll start it today, if not next week. 21 00:01:32,370 --> 00:01:38,110 But I've noticed one thing. There is definitely a trend of improvement that's 22 00:01:38,110 --> 00:01:39,290 happening for the whole group. 23 00:01:39,650 --> 00:01:46,650 So that's what is so good and exciting that I see 24 00:01:46,650 --> 00:01:51,670 how the boundaries are much better. I see how the labeling is much better. So 25 00:01:51,670 --> 00:01:54,150 we're definitely doing a lot of good things. 26 00:01:55,470 --> 00:02:00,050 All right, next session, February 4th in a week. 27 00:02:01,030 --> 00:02:03,330 What will we be discussing? 28 00:02:03,570 --> 00:02:08,490 Let's just go to the outline right away. So today, we're still going to review 29 00:02:08,490 --> 00:02:13,390 the homework from last week on Home Depot, and I will try to go a little bit 30 00:02:13,390 --> 00:02:14,390 faster. 31 00:02:15,930 --> 00:02:19,470 Maybe we'll not have the volunteers for that. Maybe we'll have some volunteers 32 00:02:19,470 --> 00:02:23,550 for the distribution labeling. So we'll try to cover as much as possible. 33 00:02:24,460 --> 00:02:31,360 And then still to cover, actually, we've covered phase boundaries, right? So 34 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:35,680 we've covered phase boundaries. We've covered phase C identification. 35 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:43,840 I think, yes, so all of this, sprints and shakeouts, signs of strength, 36 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:45,980 and downslope and trading range, those are going to be discussed. 37 00:02:47,049 --> 00:02:50,470 distribution, and then the next homework on Microsoft. 38 00:02:50,790 --> 00:02:55,310 So this homework is going to be interesting because this is usually the 39 00:02:55,310 --> 00:03:00,910 when I let you guys do the homework, you send it to me, but then I give you the 40 00:03:00,910 --> 00:03:06,050 homework as slides, you know, not necessarily we're going to discuss it in 41 00:03:06,050 --> 00:03:07,050 classroom. 42 00:03:07,390 --> 00:03:11,550 And then next session, we're going to finish our price structural analysis. 43 00:03:11,550 --> 00:03:14,150 is going to be the final session on price structural analysis. 44 00:03:15,420 --> 00:03:19,240 That doesn't mean that we will not use it in other months. 45 00:03:20,060 --> 00:03:26,560 We're still going to use price structural analysis so much 46 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:30,400 during our supply and demand sessions. 47 00:03:32,260 --> 00:03:38,480 And session number five will be the last one on the price structural analysis. 48 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:41,240 Okay, let's come back. 49 00:03:42,260 --> 00:03:43,260 All right. 50 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:49,140 As usual, all of our discussions are for educational purposes only. 51 00:03:49,980 --> 00:03:56,940 And we're going to start with the Q &A, just one question, or rather one slide. 52 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:04,040 And this slide and question comes from Justin. 53 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:10,160 And by the way, guys, if you have in your mind some kind of question like, 54 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:12,300 why are we discussing this particular question? 55 00:04:12,970 --> 00:04:15,570 Well, first of all, because I picked it. 56 00:04:16,630 --> 00:04:22,770 Secondly, I see value of this discussion right now because we're discussing the 57 00:04:22,770 --> 00:04:26,110 price structural analysis as number one, so we could go through that. 58 00:04:26,490 --> 00:04:33,430 And then it definitely has that feel of the current market, so 59 00:04:33,430 --> 00:04:40,350 it's great. Some of you are sending me requests of look at the 60 00:04:40,350 --> 00:04:41,470 chart and comment. 61 00:04:42,799 --> 00:04:47,860 So usually this is not the class to do this. I mean, like, unless you are right 62 00:04:47,860 --> 00:04:51,860 on the money with the material that we are going through, then I might consider 63 00:04:51,860 --> 00:04:57,140 this. My suggestion, and we have such a beautiful venue to do this, you know, to 64 00:04:57,140 --> 00:05:01,180 go through the analysis of stocks that are like last bought stocks, right? 65 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:06,080 It's the Wednesday class, like of market discussion class. 66 00:05:06,300 --> 00:05:08,140 So you could submit your chart there. 67 00:05:13,100 --> 00:05:15,620 Bruce and I will discuss it together. 68 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,860 Obviously, I can't do it every time, every session. 69 00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:24,180 You really, really would have to sign up for the class, meaning that you'll have 70 00:05:24,180 --> 00:05:31,040 to be a member of that class. But once in a while, I'll let you guys in, 71 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:36,860 and we do this once a semester. At the end of the whole cycle, I'll invite you 72 00:05:36,860 --> 00:05:37,940 for one of those sessions. 73 00:05:39,500 --> 00:05:43,800 All right, so let's come back to the slide, and we're looking at Home Depot. 74 00:05:44,260 --> 00:05:45,500 Home Depot again. 75 00:05:46,420 --> 00:05:52,900 So a few questions here. In accumulation, does backing up action 76 00:05:52,900 --> 00:05:56,720 volume all of the time? So that's question number one. 77 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:01,580 And if it does, is that where you want to enter a position? 78 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:07,900 Second question, do sprints LPS always happen on reversal candle or hammer, 79 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:09,080 right? 80 00:06:09,950 --> 00:06:15,910 And then the last question in the diagram below, it looks like the circle 81 00:06:15,910 --> 00:06:22,490 major sign of weakness, but then it continues upward back into the trading 82 00:06:22,490 --> 00:06:26,830 form in the high load. Does that make the circle a spring instead? 83 00:06:27,750 --> 00:06:33,730 So very good questions, Justin, and let's address those one by one. 84 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:38,060 So backing up action, does it always happen on low volume? 85 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:43,660 No, it doesn't have to be on the low volume. The volume could increase. 86 00:06:43,660 --> 00:06:50,420 the volume signature like this, right in this area right here. So what would it 87 00:06:50,420 --> 00:06:52,100 mean? How would you interpret this? 88 00:06:52,900 --> 00:06:59,540 Well, we would be thinking that with the volume increase, there is a lot of 89 00:06:59,540 --> 00:07:03,520 institutional participation, right? There is a lot of exchange of shares. 90 00:07:05,740 --> 00:07:09,500 How do we know the bias of institutional participation here? 91 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:11,520 What do you think, guys? 92 00:07:12,100 --> 00:07:16,680 Well, we have to look at the price, right? So we know that they would be 93 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:18,780 with the increased volume signature. 94 00:07:19,340 --> 00:07:24,400 But we need to look at the price to see what that signature actually does, what 95 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:26,060 that effort actually does. 96 00:07:26,380 --> 00:07:32,740 Does it push the price below the area of the support into the low? 97 00:07:34,220 --> 00:07:37,860 Does the price have the ability to stay up in this area? 98 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:44,640 And it seems to me that it's holding up. It doesn't go down. Today was kind of 99 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:45,640 like a day like this. 100 00:07:47,180 --> 00:07:54,100 And that suggests that there is on the higher 101 00:07:54,100 --> 00:07:57,920 volume signature that institutions are present, but they're buyers. 102 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:01,980 They're absorbing whatever supply is coming with that big volume signature. 103 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,740 Now, in reality, you know, it's different, right? 104 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:11,220 It's a different volume signature. So we see how supply increases and then how 105 00:08:11,220 --> 00:08:12,440 supply starts to decrease. 106 00:08:12,820 --> 00:08:16,100 So we have a decrease of the supply into the backing up action. 107 00:08:16,900 --> 00:08:23,320 So not necessarily that we have to have a low volume signature. It's preferable. 108 00:08:23,420 --> 00:08:28,680 But then if we do have a high volume signature, then we need to look at the 109 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:31,480 result. In both cases, the result is actually good. 110 00:08:32,159 --> 00:08:37,820 And we would be actually thinking here that we are in some kind of downslope 111 00:08:37,820 --> 00:08:44,240 information where we have the commitment above the 112 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:50,300 sloping resistance as a sign of strength and then a backing up action that backs 113 00:08:50,300 --> 00:08:56,300 up exactly into the area of the support that acted before as the resistance. And 114 00:08:56,300 --> 00:09:00,060 look how all of these four points are working very nicely. 115 00:09:01,610 --> 00:09:08,310 Let's go right away into the question about a sign of weakness or a spring. 116 00:09:09,950 --> 00:09:13,790 So I would approach it from two different perspectives. 117 00:09:14,390 --> 00:09:20,090 The first one is we are looking at what has happened recently. 118 00:09:20,690 --> 00:09:24,070 So, for instance, what has happened in this area. 119 00:09:24,650 --> 00:09:29,730 We're seeing that there is a very substantial rally. 120 00:09:33,849 --> 00:09:37,910 is much better than the rallies that we've seen before in this trading range. 121 00:09:38,110 --> 00:09:42,510 So that tells us that there is some kind of change of character that is 122 00:09:42,510 --> 00:09:47,930 happening. And then we've seen the reaction that is not the same as the 123 00:09:47,930 --> 00:09:49,170 that we've seen in the trading range. 124 00:09:49,370 --> 00:09:53,590 So that's also a confirmation of that change of character. Change of character 125 00:09:53,590 --> 00:09:58,170 for what? Well, we've been in the downtrending environment even with 126 00:09:59,900 --> 00:10:04,680 lower highs and lower lows going into a potential spring. We're still in the 127 00:10:04,680 --> 00:10:08,860 downtrend by the definition, although this looks already as a consolidation. 128 00:10:09,820 --> 00:10:15,360 So this change of character on the way out and the way the character of this 129 00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:21,980 change of character, best rally and then very shallow reaction 130 00:10:21,980 --> 00:10:24,800 suggests that the bias is actually to the upside. 131 00:10:25,290 --> 00:10:30,070 And if the bias is to the upside and we look at the area of the support and we 132 00:10:30,070 --> 00:10:36,150 see the price just temporarily committing below, then this is most 133 00:10:36,150 --> 00:10:38,070 spring and not a sign of weakness. 134 00:10:39,770 --> 00:10:46,730 A sign of weakness here I think could be, a spring could 135 00:10:46,730 --> 00:10:49,990 be confused for the sign of weakness here if we look at the horizontal 136 00:10:49,990 --> 00:10:50,990 structure. 137 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:56,500 because the commitment below is quite significant. There are one, two, three 138 00:10:56,500 --> 00:11:01,360 closes below the area of the support, actually, the support cluster here. 139 00:11:01,680 --> 00:11:08,520 So that view might be actually not the most 140 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:14,780 favorable. I would still use these lows and highs to connect them together and 141 00:11:14,780 --> 00:11:20,340 look at how the price commits just temporarily at the end of this move. 142 00:11:21,010 --> 00:11:24,430 Maybe there are two closes, but there is definitely one that commits 143 00:11:24,430 --> 00:11:25,430 significantly. 144 00:11:26,170 --> 00:11:30,250 And then everything else is on the upside. 145 00:11:31,230 --> 00:11:36,990 Also, for the buys, we kind of see this area, which is very interesting. 146 00:11:37,210 --> 00:11:39,010 It's an increase in uptrend. 147 00:11:40,890 --> 00:11:44,670 And also we see how momentum increases behind it. 148 00:11:45,610 --> 00:11:47,290 And it puts the price. 149 00:11:48,250 --> 00:11:53,430 quickly to the opposite velocity starts to increase so those could be the 150 00:11:53,430 --> 00:12:00,330 elements of either significant deterioration of the supply or some 151 00:12:00,330 --> 00:12:05,010 behind it and in this case i think that majority of the time has been done here 152 00:12:05,010 --> 00:12:10,770 here and even on the way down here because institutions don't function like 153 00:12:11,210 --> 00:12:14,590 retail traders they're always thinking about the value and liquidity 154 00:12:14,590 --> 00:12:19,430 opportunities to get in into the position so it seems to me that this is 155 00:12:19,430 --> 00:12:25,910 the value zone is right here um here we're seeing all this buying 156 00:12:25,910 --> 00:12:31,690 and then as the price goes below the value zone it becomes extreme value 157 00:12:31,690 --> 00:12:38,290 and this is just my view for the whole market it's from the extreme value in 158 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:50,460 where we're still technically in the long -term 159 00:12:50,460 --> 00:12:55,060 uptrend cycle, right, since 2009 lows. 160 00:12:55,460 --> 00:13:01,360 So until we break the lows that were created in December, we're still going 161 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:05,400 be thinking about that. So think for a second that the long -term bias is up. 162 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:07,300 So what is this? 163 00:13:07,770 --> 00:13:12,890 quick decline means for the market in this particular stock well it means that 164 00:13:12,890 --> 00:13:18,990 uh short term we had some kind of shakeout type of action and then the 165 00:13:18,990 --> 00:13:24,850 creates that extreme value that is very attractive to institutions another way 166 00:13:24,850 --> 00:13:29,170 of looking at this is just looking at the overall signature here volume 167 00:13:29,170 --> 00:13:35,150 signature now it definitely increased over what well over this whole period 168 00:13:35,150 --> 00:13:36,150 right here 169 00:13:36,820 --> 00:13:41,740 So there is some buying in this area, and that's why I'm thinking it's 170 00:13:41,740 --> 00:13:42,800 to the upside. 171 00:13:44,500 --> 00:13:49,340 Do sprints, LPS, always happen on the reversal candle? For example, hammer. 172 00:13:49,580 --> 00:13:53,580 There are so many ways how that could happen. 173 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:59,500 You could have a hammer. You could have just the bar that's going to close. 174 00:14:01,180 --> 00:14:03,460 the bodies of the previous bars. 175 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:07,720 There are so many ways of how a reversal could happen. We will be studying that 176 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:11,560 later on in the fourth month. 177 00:14:14,980 --> 00:14:19,120 Philip is asking, what is the angle of the price movement that is interpreted 178 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:22,340 uptrend, downtrend instead of the trading rate? 179 00:14:22,660 --> 00:14:27,100 I think this is a really good question because that's something that produces 180 00:14:27,100 --> 00:14:28,100 that 181 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:36,300 you know, possible mistakes. I've seen people, you know, showing me something 182 00:14:36,300 --> 00:14:41,880 like this, where it is clearly an uptrend, and yet they would start 183 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:48,220 like this, phase A, phase B, phase C, something like this. This is definitely 184 00:14:48,220 --> 00:14:49,220 not correct. 185 00:14:49,300 --> 00:14:50,600 Definitely not correct. 186 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:57,520 So I'm not sure about the angle, though, right? So Philip is asking about the 187 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:04,280 angle. But what I'm pretty much sure is that the way how the structure 188 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:09,740 unfolds. Look at the character of the down move right here. What do we see on 189 00:15:09,740 --> 00:15:12,000 the opposite side of this reaction? 190 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:15,460 All of the counter move are very, very mediocre. 191 00:15:15,860 --> 00:15:22,300 There is no lift in those. So it just tells us that the cell still persists 192 00:15:22,300 --> 00:15:25,380 and that the bars cannot have... 193 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:32,380 you know a good meaningful rally and it's only comes here on the automatic 194 00:15:32,380 --> 00:15:36,640 which becomes a change of character right away so you know that the change 195 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:42,020 character is going to suggest a trading range for consolidation and then once 196 00:15:42,020 --> 00:15:47,400 you start seeing lower highs and lower lows that's when you try to connect them 197 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:54,060 and see uh if it would make sense um to see the price deviate around the mean 198 00:15:54,350 --> 00:15:58,530 And if you could see that, then it's definitely a trading range. And it's a 199 00:15:58,530 --> 00:16:01,290 downsloping range because of the lower highs and lower lows. 200 00:16:02,350 --> 00:16:06,950 But I wouldn't be thinking necessarily in terms of the end goal. I would be 201 00:16:06,950 --> 00:16:10,330 thinking in terms of how the trading range starts. 202 00:16:13,350 --> 00:16:15,470 Okay, great. Well, Justin, thank you. 203 00:16:18,790 --> 00:16:20,710 All right, let's come back to our homework. 204 00:16:25,610 --> 00:16:32,070 All right, and the next slide here, 205 00:16:32,230 --> 00:16:37,890 we have three trading ranges. 206 00:16:42,390 --> 00:16:45,010 Yeah, let's have a volunteer. 207 00:16:45,270 --> 00:16:49,330 I just feel like I need a little bit of a break. So say yes, Alan, you too. 208 00:17:01,610 --> 00:17:02,610 Hi, Rama. 209 00:17:02,830 --> 00:17:04,170 Hi, Roman. 210 00:17:04,710 --> 00:17:06,790 Yeah. Rama? Is it Rama, right? 211 00:17:07,530 --> 00:17:08,530 R -A -M -A, yeah. 212 00:17:08,750 --> 00:17:09,750 Yeah, okay, great. 213 00:17:13,190 --> 00:17:16,550 Okay, so let's start with the first trading range. 214 00:17:17,130 --> 00:17:18,970 So what catches your eye? 215 00:17:21,270 --> 00:17:24,810 Actually, no, no, no. Let's stop here for a second. 216 00:17:25,030 --> 00:17:26,510 Let's start with the different question. 217 00:17:27,270 --> 00:17:30,390 What is it? Is it an accumulation or a reaccumulation? 218 00:17:32,850 --> 00:17:36,730 It's a reaccumulation, the first... Why is it a reaccumulation? 219 00:17:37,630 --> 00:17:39,670 There is a preceding uptrend. 220 00:17:40,890 --> 00:17:46,830 Yes. So we have a move to the upside, consolidation, trading range, and then 221 00:17:46,830 --> 00:17:49,890 resumption of this trend. So it's a reaccumulation, not accumulation. 222 00:17:50,290 --> 00:17:54,070 Okay, great. So what catches your eye the most in this formation? 223 00:17:56,350 --> 00:17:57,350 It's the... 224 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:05,680 The buying climax followed by a deep automatic 225 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:06,680 reaction. 226 00:18:09,500 --> 00:18:16,240 And later, the next is the secondary 227 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:19,820 test that happens after that. 228 00:18:29,050 --> 00:18:33,330 And that completes the phase A. 229 00:18:34,810 --> 00:18:37,050 Okay. So let's talk about this. 230 00:18:37,410 --> 00:18:40,250 There are quite a few concepts here that we could discuss. 231 00:18:40,490 --> 00:18:45,350 So it seems to me that the bind climax is defined correctly, right? Because 232 00:18:45,350 --> 00:18:48,710 we're seeing some kind of climax. 233 00:18:50,590 --> 00:18:57,270 climactic run with the increased spread, and that definitely defines the 234 00:18:57,270 --> 00:18:58,790 boundary of the trading range. 235 00:18:59,030 --> 00:19:05,990 The alternative labeling to this could be this whole area 236 00:19:05,990 --> 00:19:08,770 being a buying climax trading range. 237 00:19:08,970 --> 00:19:11,650 I would understand that, so that's fine as well. 238 00:19:12,790 --> 00:19:17,230 The conventional probably would be preliminary supply. 239 00:19:18,670 --> 00:19:21,830 buying climax, and then look what happens next. 240 00:19:22,130 --> 00:19:25,610 What does this remind you of, the next price action to the downside? 241 00:19:27,830 --> 00:19:34,690 The next price action to the downside is the, I would consider 242 00:19:34,690 --> 00:19:36,230 that as an automatic reaction. 243 00:19:36,790 --> 00:19:43,570 Of course, yes, and that would be a very conventional label here, 244 00:19:43,790 --> 00:19:46,470 as we know. 245 00:19:47,530 --> 00:19:51,910 In terms of the character with which the price goes down, I mean, look at how it 246 00:19:51,910 --> 00:19:56,230 goes down. First of all, there is not a lot of the distributional pattern here 247 00:19:56,230 --> 00:19:58,890 at the top unless we're considering this whole pattern here. 248 00:19:59,430 --> 00:20:04,770 Right. So look at this spread, increasing spread that goes throughout 249 00:20:04,770 --> 00:20:09,470 closes in this area. That's number one. And then secondly, look at the gap the 250 00:20:09,470 --> 00:20:10,470 next day. 251 00:20:10,870 --> 00:20:17,070 Yeah. And I think the whole price action reminds me of a climactic. 252 00:20:17,370 --> 00:20:24,110 action yes so climactic action and climactic action 253 00:20:24,110 --> 00:20:29,150 usually is going to be associated with two things either climax itself so in 254 00:20:29,150 --> 00:20:35,970 this case selling climax early climax or a shakeout yeah right 255 00:20:35,970 --> 00:20:42,710 so yeah i mean i would say i would say that it's a climactic action 256 00:20:43,659 --> 00:20:47,960 very much in association with selling climax. 257 00:20:48,380 --> 00:20:53,300 Okay, so let's say that this is a selling climax. Then what would the 258 00:20:53,300 --> 00:20:54,300 be after that? 259 00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:04,460 After that, the price is expected to go and test the area where 260 00:21:04,460 --> 00:21:10,740 the resistance is established. That is, they're testing the buying climax, 261 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:12,820 the area near the buy. 262 00:21:13,020 --> 00:21:17,200 But think about this. We're discussing a selling climax, climactic action, or a 263 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:21,040 shakeout. So either labeling would be okay here. 264 00:21:21,340 --> 00:21:23,680 What should happen after the selling climax? 265 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:25,520 Not the test. 266 00:21:29,060 --> 00:21:35,680 If we experienced a selling climax, then we are in the downtrend. 267 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,760 Where is this downtrend? Well, it's this whole move to the downside. 268 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:41,940 So what happens next? 269 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:49,200 The next, it goes into the trading range. 270 00:21:49,660 --> 00:21:50,660 Yes. 271 00:21:51,380 --> 00:21:56,280 And from there, there is a rally. 272 00:21:56,500 --> 00:22:00,680 How would you label the first rally of the low of the selling climax? 273 00:22:03,340 --> 00:22:08,800 That would be labeled as an automatic reaction. 274 00:22:09,260 --> 00:22:11,660 Automatic rally in the accumulation. 275 00:22:12,590 --> 00:22:15,190 And then the next reaction would be labeled as? 276 00:22:16,710 --> 00:22:17,710 Secondary test. 277 00:22:17,850 --> 00:22:18,850 Which is testing what? 278 00:22:20,090 --> 00:22:25,470 Testing the area of selling climax. 279 00:22:25,950 --> 00:22:29,490 Okay. So that's exactly what is happening here. 280 00:22:30,150 --> 00:22:33,810 Yeah. Why do we say that this is an automatic rally? 281 00:22:34,050 --> 00:22:37,410 Well, look at the quality of the rally. What does this tell you? 282 00:22:38,010 --> 00:22:41,430 Relative to the downtrend, it's a change of character. 283 00:22:42,500 --> 00:22:47,000 It's the largest reaction to the upside since the buying climax. 284 00:22:47,260 --> 00:22:50,460 So, of course, this is going to be a change of character, and therefore it 285 00:22:50,460 --> 00:22:52,000 be labeled as an automatic rally. 286 00:22:52,620 --> 00:22:54,360 Then look at the next reaction. 287 00:22:54,620 --> 00:22:55,960 How does it look to you? 288 00:22:56,600 --> 00:23:01,540 Diminishing spread, diminishing volume signature, stopping here at the high or 289 00:23:01,540 --> 00:23:02,540 low. 290 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,420 So that looks like a test. 291 00:23:05,360 --> 00:23:10,280 So, therefore, this is a secondary test of the climactic action itself. So, 292 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:14,360 therefore... Our labeling could be like this. 293 00:23:15,500 --> 00:23:22,380 Shake out, automatic rally, change of character, and then 294 00:23:22,380 --> 00:23:24,540 secondary test. And here is our phase A. 295 00:23:24,900 --> 00:23:28,900 Right. Okay, so what's next that catches your eye? 296 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:36,160 The next significant is the rally that goes up to 297 00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:37,920 the level of the resistance. 298 00:23:39,100 --> 00:23:40,100 Okay. 299 00:23:42,010 --> 00:23:48,210 And that has a character of essentially upthrust. 300 00:23:48,410 --> 00:23:49,670 Okay. Yeah. 301 00:23:50,110 --> 00:23:55,070 So it's an upthrust action. Action, yes. We know that this is a reaccumulation. 302 00:23:55,130 --> 00:23:57,150 Sure. So we'll label this as an upthrust action. 303 00:23:57,850 --> 00:23:59,050 Which phase is that? 304 00:24:00,630 --> 00:24:01,630 Phase B. 305 00:24:01,690 --> 00:24:05,050 In phase B. Okay, well, okay, we defined that. 306 00:24:05,470 --> 00:24:07,530 What's the next thing that catches your eye? 307 00:24:08,790 --> 00:24:09,990 Let's do this. 308 00:24:10,450 --> 00:24:12,050 Where is our phase C? 309 00:24:13,390 --> 00:24:20,150 The phase C is right towards the area preceding the march. 310 00:24:22,090 --> 00:24:28,010 And phase C, this is the area where 311 00:24:28,010 --> 00:24:32,670 immediately preceding the march. Okay, something like this? 312 00:24:32,910 --> 00:24:38,680 Yeah. Okay, yeah. So we could have kind of like a small argument here, you know, 313 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:40,020 what phase C is. 314 00:24:40,940 --> 00:24:47,680 I would say I would mark it even closer, you know, somewhere around, 315 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,020 yeah. Okay. 316 00:24:50,260 --> 00:24:56,440 So one of the things that, you know, we've talked about, guys, last time is 317 00:24:56,440 --> 00:25:03,370 looking at different phases and trying to define the Kind of like the 318 00:25:03,370 --> 00:25:08,490 structures within those phases, right? So, for instance, this is one structure. 319 00:25:08,670 --> 00:25:10,050 It belongs to phase A. 320 00:25:11,030 --> 00:25:16,490 This is the test of another structure and has a structure of its own. It's 321 00:25:16,490 --> 00:25:21,870 B. And then it seems to me that all of these reactions here kind of belong to 322 00:25:21,870 --> 00:25:22,870 the next structure. 323 00:25:23,170 --> 00:25:27,690 Right. So, and that's how we want to define phases, right? So, we want to say 324 00:25:27,690 --> 00:25:32,050 that... This is our phase C. And then everything in between is B. 325 00:25:32,410 --> 00:25:37,810 And this is our first test, right? So test number one, test number two. 326 00:25:39,170 --> 00:25:43,470 And then this whole area right here is just more complex. So that becomes our 327 00:25:43,470 --> 00:25:46,690 test number three in there for a potential phase C. 328 00:25:47,010 --> 00:25:51,730 I don't mind labeling it differently, right? So my first labeling was 329 00:25:51,730 --> 00:25:54,450 here. And I think on my slide, that's how it is. 330 00:25:55,130 --> 00:25:59,750 But I would be just paying more attention to the texture of the 331 00:25:59,750 --> 00:26:01,010 each of the phases. 332 00:26:01,390 --> 00:26:07,990 So then what we have here is a buy -in climax, shake -out, 333 00:26:08,150 --> 00:26:10,930 automatic rally, secondary test, phase A. 334 00:26:11,170 --> 00:26:14,710 What is the intention behind phase A, really quick? 335 00:26:15,210 --> 00:26:16,990 A change of character. 336 00:26:18,010 --> 00:26:19,690 Stop in action? Stopping, yeah. 337 00:26:20,190 --> 00:26:22,150 So we're stopping the previous trend. 338 00:26:22,730 --> 00:26:26,850 Then let's say if this is Phase C, what's the intention behind Phase C? 339 00:26:27,910 --> 00:26:34,870 Phase C marks the commencement of the next uptrend. That's not the 340 00:26:34,870 --> 00:26:37,550 intention, though. What is the intention behind Phase C? 341 00:26:38,030 --> 00:26:44,010 Phase C, again, marks the change of character as the price gets out of the 342 00:26:44,010 --> 00:26:47,990 trading. That's not the intention of Phase C. What is the intention behind 343 00:26:47,990 --> 00:26:49,170 C? What does it do? 344 00:26:50,030 --> 00:26:56,910 If this is to stop, if phase A is to stop the previous move, then phase 345 00:26:56,910 --> 00:27:03,470 C is going to be our final test of supply at support 346 00:27:03,470 --> 00:27:04,470 level. 347 00:27:04,850 --> 00:27:07,010 So I want you to remember this by heart. 348 00:27:07,510 --> 00:27:09,750 Okay, so what's the intention behind phase B? 349 00:27:12,450 --> 00:27:15,510 Phase B essentially shows 350 00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:23,320 multiple areas of tests and testing the resistance to the upside and testing the 351 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:24,480 support to the downside. 352 00:27:25,980 --> 00:27:32,300 Okay. Well, Rama, I want you to come back to schematics, right, because I put 353 00:27:32,300 --> 00:27:35,040 there the intentions for each phases intentionally. 354 00:27:36,140 --> 00:27:42,040 Okay. And I want you to remember those intentions. So phase B intention is to 355 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,720 define the relationship between supply and demand. 356 00:27:45,940 --> 00:27:46,940 Yeah. 357 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:51,640 And then sometimes I kind of like think about this like a war zone. 358 00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:56,720 You know, it's going to be extremely volatile as a zone by itself. 359 00:27:57,580 --> 00:28:01,960 And then another intention behind phase B is to build a cause. 360 00:28:05,780 --> 00:28:10,080 So those are the intentions behind phase B. Okay, so where is our phase D? 361 00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:13,520 Phase D. 362 00:28:17,660 --> 00:28:23,100 follows the last point of supply, 363 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:28,880 precedes the last point of supply, and then as the price moves out of the 364 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:29,880 trading range. 365 00:28:30,860 --> 00:28:35,100 The last point of support, just because we are in the... Sorry, support, sorry, 366 00:28:35,180 --> 00:28:36,180 yeah. 367 00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:37,200 Okay. 368 00:28:38,060 --> 00:28:41,220 Okay, so give me the timestamp for Phase D. 369 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:43,980 Phase D would be... 370 00:28:46,390 --> 00:28:53,350 just beyond the second line you have drawn to mark the phase C. That's 371 00:28:53,350 --> 00:28:58,130 just after the beginning of the march. And where is the boundary for that phase 372 00:28:58,130 --> 00:28:59,130 D? 373 00:29:00,690 --> 00:29:03,050 Let's say the boundary between D and E. 374 00:29:04,370 --> 00:29:09,630 The boundary between D and E would be where 375 00:29:09,630 --> 00:29:12,490 your pointer is situated. 376 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,380 Right there, SS. 377 00:29:16,060 --> 00:29:17,060 Okay. Yeah. 378 00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:21,180 All right. And what is the intention behind Phase D? 379 00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:33,520 It's the Phase D marks the beginning of 380 00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:40,100 the uptrend as the price exits the trading range. 381 00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:46,400 Okay. So it's a markup? In the trading range, this is a little bit different 382 00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,680 structure where we see an apex formation. 383 00:29:49,020 --> 00:29:51,560 So apex formations are going to have different phases. 384 00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:53,360 Okay, great. 385 00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:59,820 Okay, let's go and look at the distribution 386 00:29:59,820 --> 00:30:04,460 range. So what catches your eye there? 387 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,500 It's an upsloping trading range. 388 00:30:12,940 --> 00:30:16,920 That's the first feature that strikes me. 389 00:30:17,380 --> 00:30:23,900 And after that is the buying 390 00:30:23,900 --> 00:30:24,900 climax. 391 00:30:25,300 --> 00:30:31,160 From the price action, I could see... What is the timestamp for a buying 392 00:30:31,860 --> 00:30:38,640 Just after May, between May and June, there is a marked 393 00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,020 acceleration of the price. 394 00:30:40,620 --> 00:30:43,960 And it's almost a vertical parabolic rise. 395 00:30:45,100 --> 00:30:51,220 So that's where the buying climax, I mean, it leads up to the buying climax 396 00:30:51,220 --> 00:30:57,920 and followed by a small 397 00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:02,840 pullback, which... Label, label, label everything for me. 398 00:31:03,180 --> 00:31:07,680 Do not describe what you see because we see the chart. We understand what's 399 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:12,860 happening. I want you to give me, like, short answers on the label, all right? 400 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:18,460 So if this is the buying climax, then the next point, I want you to label all 401 00:31:18,460 --> 00:31:19,960 these points right here. Okay. 402 00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:27,200 The next point would be the automatic reaction. 403 00:31:27,620 --> 00:31:28,620 Mm -hmm. 404 00:31:28,820 --> 00:31:34,420 Okay. Followed by the secondary test. 405 00:31:34,780 --> 00:31:35,800 Okay. Phase? 406 00:31:37,140 --> 00:31:38,140 A. 407 00:31:38,460 --> 00:31:39,460 Okay. 408 00:31:40,020 --> 00:31:45,920 And then followed by phase B where the price comes and tests. 409 00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:52,600 I could see two small tests. 410 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:57,300 Okay, we see that too. So another secondary area of the secondary test. 411 00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:00,300 Okay, so where is our phase C? 412 00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:07,400 Phase C is the point you marked last, the phase C, yeah. 413 00:32:07,900 --> 00:32:14,900 Okay, so how would we label phase C here, you know, this attempt to 414 00:32:14,900 --> 00:32:16,360 overcome the previous resistance? 415 00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:21,620 I would label that as an upthrust, yeah. 416 00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:28,060 Uptrust, and because this is distribution, so upthrust after 417 00:32:28,300 --> 00:32:33,420 Okay, we want to check on all of the phases, so phase A. 418 00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:41,240 Phase B and phase C, we want phase B to be the largest, and it seems 419 00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,060 like it's almost there. It's almost there. 420 00:32:44,980 --> 00:32:47,280 Okay, so what comes after phase C? 421 00:32:48,540 --> 00:32:49,540 Phase D. 422 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:56,180 Okay, and specifically with the, you know, I see that the price drops down to 423 00:32:56,180 --> 00:32:58,000 this level right here. How would we label it? 424 00:32:58,980 --> 00:33:01,640 A major sign of weakness. 425 00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:03,380 Okay, followed by? 426 00:33:04,310 --> 00:33:06,550 the last point of supply. 427 00:33:07,810 --> 00:33:14,770 That comes exactly, guys, look at that. It comes exactly to the point of the 428 00:33:14,770 --> 00:33:17,810 resistance which acted before as a support. 429 00:33:18,270 --> 00:33:25,090 Right. So, therefore, you know, this upsloping labeling makes 430 00:33:25,090 --> 00:33:29,150 a lot of sense because all of the concepts have fallen to the upsloping 431 00:33:29,150 --> 00:33:30,150 structure. 432 00:33:30,370 --> 00:33:31,370 Okay, great. 433 00:33:31,990 --> 00:33:32,990 Okay. 434 00:33:34,060 --> 00:33:35,200 Rama, any questions? 435 00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:36,480 Yeah. 436 00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:43,620 I think the intentions, the 437 00:33:43,620 --> 00:33:47,700 point you made about intention is well taken because I think that's something 438 00:33:47,700 --> 00:33:49,080 that I'm working on. 439 00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:51,520 Yeah, 440 00:33:52,700 --> 00:33:53,700 so just... 441 00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:58,280 you know go to the schematics go to those um slides with the schematic in 442 00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:02,340 description and there you can find all of the characteristics for all of the 443 00:34:02,340 --> 00:34:06,460 elements which i think that you're doing fine with i think maybe intentions a 444 00:34:06,460 --> 00:34:12,840 little bit just to freshen up and um and then obviously you know we we want the 445 00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:18,219 label in here right so sometimes i feel like Students go into the description, 446 00:34:18,380 --> 00:34:24,460 and my goal is always to stop them because we could see the chart. Yeah, we 447 00:34:24,460 --> 00:34:29,639 the chart. But what we're interested in is how do you see the labeling? How do 448 00:34:29,639 --> 00:34:30,639 you see the structure? 449 00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:36,580 So, yeah, just brush up on the intentions, and everything else is fine. 450 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:43,120 Okay. And in the first trading range, one of the things I noticed is that the 451 00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:51,460 of the three lows between March, February and March, the third 452 00:34:51,460 --> 00:34:52,760 one is the higher low. 453 00:34:54,860 --> 00:34:59,680 The second one is, yeah, the second one is kind of on the same level. Okay. 454 00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:07,520 So is it reasonable to mark that as the center, the 455 00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:09,500 phase C around that higher low? 456 00:35:09,980 --> 00:35:15,520 You know, if you label it like this, like you originally labeled it, I'm 457 00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:20,360 fine because phase C in the reaccumulation especially would suggest 458 00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:25,300 have to come in right here on this bar, right here on this bar, and initiate the 459 00:35:25,300 --> 00:35:29,300 position, right? So this is your point entry number one, entry number two. 460 00:35:29,580 --> 00:35:35,180 So from this perspective, from the trading perspective, does it really 461 00:35:35,180 --> 00:35:36,460 how we label it? 462 00:35:36,720 --> 00:35:40,160 Probably no. As long as you could understand that. 463 00:35:40,620 --> 00:35:46,500 This is a part of the potential phase C, therefore the beginning of the 464 00:35:46,500 --> 00:35:47,560 potential upswing. 465 00:35:47,940 --> 00:35:52,720 And, you know, you could definitely define the points of entry here really 466 00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:59,320 So it doesn't, at the end, it wouldn't really matter, you know, whether you're 467 00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:01,120 able to look like this, this, or this. 468 00:36:01,700 --> 00:36:03,620 Okay. Okay, sounds good. 469 00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:05,460 Thank you, Rama. 470 00:36:06,100 --> 00:36:07,420 Thank you. Okay. 471 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:12,600 And then let's look at the last trading range. This one is a little bit 472 00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:15,440 difficult, so that's why I'm going to go through this myself. 473 00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:22,840 So we are having a downtrend, clearly defined climactic action, clearly 474 00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,620 change of character in the next rally. 475 00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:33,440 It's the largest rally of all of the rallies that we've seen on the downside. 476 00:36:33,820 --> 00:36:36,360 So here is our automatic rally. 477 00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:45,200 have multiple tests, one, two, three, and then test number four on the 478 00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:45,899 way down. 479 00:36:45,900 --> 00:36:52,840 So it seems to me that this rally right here has the largest rally of them 480 00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:55,140 all. So this looks like one swing. 481 00:36:56,660 --> 00:37:02,980 There are some things here that... So therefore, 482 00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:07,640 just to conclude the thought, this looks like phase A. 483 00:37:08,510 --> 00:37:15,230 In some instances, we would probably say that this looks like a test of the 484 00:37:15,230 --> 00:37:17,330 climactic action itself as well. 485 00:37:18,050 --> 00:37:23,590 But let's just go with this label, phase A. So then the next test, which is the 486 00:37:23,590 --> 00:37:27,630 second test, happens in phase B. 487 00:37:28,510 --> 00:37:35,430 And then the next test, somewhere in this area, number three, that seems to 488 00:37:35,430 --> 00:37:36,510 phase C. 489 00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:53,000 So I think I would definitely accept this type of labeling with kind of like 490 00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:59,980 one exception, is that it seems that phase A is somewhat larger than phase B. 491 00:38:00,300 --> 00:38:05,500 And in some instances, guys, unfortunately, it's not going to work 492 00:38:05,500 --> 00:38:10,580 this, right? So sometimes the labeling is just going to be a little bit out of 493 00:38:10,580 --> 00:38:14,860 our usual. 494 00:38:15,580 --> 00:38:16,600 rule interpretation. 495 00:38:17,540 --> 00:38:24,420 And hopefully, you could think of the trading 496 00:38:24,420 --> 00:38:30,380 value here rather than, you know, more of the label and style. 497 00:38:32,260 --> 00:38:36,540 In some instances, we could label it like this, and then that would extend 498 00:38:36,540 --> 00:38:41,110 B. But again, for trading purposes, you probably wouldn't care that much. 499 00:38:41,510 --> 00:38:45,630 Actually, to be completely frank with you, I still would be thinking that we 500 00:38:45,630 --> 00:38:47,190 in phase B at this point. 501 00:38:47,690 --> 00:38:51,850 And I would be thinking that we're going to go and experience some kind of phase 502 00:38:51,850 --> 00:38:53,410 C. But it doesn't happen. 503 00:38:53,890 --> 00:38:59,790 So what do you do? Well, if you miss this move to the upside and you are 504 00:38:59,790 --> 00:39:03,870 realizing that this could be a sign of strength, then you're waiting for what? 505 00:39:03,950 --> 00:39:06,510 You're waiting for the backing up action, which should come where? 506 00:39:07,070 --> 00:39:12,630 It should come to the area of the support that acted before as the 507 00:39:12,630 --> 00:39:13,630 phases A and B. 508 00:39:14,150 --> 00:39:21,110 So out of this touch and on the reversal, that's 509 00:39:21,110 --> 00:39:25,910 when you might be thinking, wow, if this shows me that this is a point of entry, 510 00:39:26,130 --> 00:39:31,290 we might have concluded already all of the phases here. And this is phase D. 511 00:39:32,310 --> 00:39:36,190 And therefore, you know, I should go in into this position. 512 00:39:37,060 --> 00:39:42,140 Granted, you're opening the position much higher than, let's say, in phase C, 513 00:39:42,220 --> 00:39:45,860 and that still acts as a reaccumulation range for us. 514 00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:53,600 But sometimes it's going to be hard to define those phases, and there 515 00:39:53,600 --> 00:40:00,280 is nothing wrong about this. It's just a skill building, and sometimes 516 00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:03,140 structures develop in a very... weird way. 517 00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:05,640 So you have to rely on concepts. 518 00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:07,000 And what are the concepts here? 519 00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:08,660 Well, here is one. 520 00:40:10,020 --> 00:40:14,660 Here is this move to the upside that commits significantly to the upside, has 521 00:40:14,660 --> 00:40:18,600 multiple closes up, and then spends so much time above. 522 00:40:18,860 --> 00:40:19,980 What does that sound like? 523 00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:21,500 Well, a sign of strength. 524 00:40:21,860 --> 00:40:24,300 And then a reaction right into the support. 525 00:40:24,620 --> 00:40:26,960 What does that sound like? A backnap action. 526 00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:30,060 If this is true, then this is phase D. 527 00:40:31,180 --> 00:40:34,820 And therefore, everything before that was phase A, B, and C. 528 00:40:36,100 --> 00:40:39,160 Okay, let's have a look at how I label it. 529 00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:46,280 Okay, so I put phase A here at this test. 530 00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:51,400 I'm thinking that still, you know, this is phase A right here. 531 00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,260 But let's just leave it as is. 532 00:40:55,540 --> 00:40:57,880 Okay, let's see what kind of questions we have. 533 00:41:04,140 --> 00:41:08,300 Why is the trading range not defined by the lowest point of the automatic 534 00:41:08,300 --> 00:41:12,000 reaction? So we're talking about this trading range right here. 535 00:41:12,240 --> 00:41:18,940 So, well, we could label this as an automatic reaction, secondary 536 00:41:18,940 --> 00:41:25,320 test, and you could definitely have the boundary at this level. Does it come 537 00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:28,580 handy after this? 538 00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:33,440 Not at all. And we're looking at the chart that has already unfolded. 539 00:41:33,820 --> 00:41:40,540 So it's a historical chart, right? So we already know that the price only tests 540 00:41:40,540 --> 00:41:43,900 this area right here and not this one. 541 00:41:44,260 --> 00:41:50,400 And this leads us to the conclusion that this was an extreme oversold condition. 542 00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:56,380 In the extreme oversold condition, price usually does not have a significant 543 00:41:56,380 --> 00:41:58,100 test at the same level. 544 00:41:59,540 --> 00:42:05,380 And the testing out of the extreme oversold condition might happen at the 545 00:42:05,380 --> 00:42:12,060 level. So therefore, what's the use of having this line if the price does not 546 00:42:12,060 --> 00:42:15,540 there? Only when it goes there, you could just incorporate here. 547 00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:21,160 What's more important at secondary test low is being tested again in phase B and 548 00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:25,780 then being tested again in phase C. So that becomes a significant support. 549 00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:29,200 Next question. 550 00:42:29,860 --> 00:42:33,320 Do we care about daily big bull candle? 551 00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:37,820 Okay, Eric, right here, this one. 552 00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:39,820 Are we still on this trading range? 553 00:42:48,240 --> 00:42:50,140 Okay, yes, of course. 554 00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:52,020 We do care about that. 555 00:42:55,740 --> 00:42:57,920 Okay. Eric, I'm confused. 556 00:42:58,940 --> 00:43:02,840 Last look at the trading range at the right. Okay, so which candle are we 557 00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:03,840 talking about? 558 00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:07,980 You have to give me a timestamp. I mean, there are a lot of big candles here. 559 00:43:10,300 --> 00:43:14,420 Okay, while you're thinking about this, 1991. 560 00:43:15,540 --> 00:43:17,060 Okay, right here. 561 00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:22,840 There are multiple big candles here, probably. 562 00:43:26,290 --> 00:43:27,770 Okay, let me just unmute you. 563 00:43:30,970 --> 00:43:35,650 I don't kind of see that. Okay, so which candle are we talking about, Eric? 564 00:43:36,810 --> 00:43:39,730 Okay, Roman, do you hear me? Yes. 565 00:43:40,650 --> 00:43:44,950 Okay, my question is why sign of week instead 566 00:43:44,950 --> 00:43:49,350 of spring? 567 00:43:49,790 --> 00:43:52,150 Or in the phase... 568 00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:59,040 Yeah, this is a mistake right here. Okay, so if we're talking about phase C, 569 00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:00,120 this should be a spring. 570 00:44:00,900 --> 00:44:05,720 Oh, I know what happened. Okay, let me just correct this. 571 00:44:06,620 --> 00:44:12,180 I think this was a slide that I worked on 572 00:44:12,180 --> 00:44:14,020 afterward. 573 00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:21,940 I defined phase C as this one right here. So this becomes a sign of weakness 574 00:44:21,940 --> 00:44:25,660 B, and then this is phase C. So that makes sense. Okay. 575 00:44:27,020 --> 00:44:32,420 Although, you know, I don't like that. I don't like the phase A, phase B 576 00:44:32,420 --> 00:44:37,140 definition here, but phase C could be something like this, and then that would 577 00:44:37,140 --> 00:44:38,900 make it a sign of weakness. 578 00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:41,320 Right? 579 00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:44,280 Eric? 580 00:44:45,720 --> 00:44:48,180 Okay, great. I mute myself, sorry. 581 00:44:48,380 --> 00:44:49,380 Okay, no worries. 582 00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:53,080 Okay, next question. 583 00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:04,960 How would we mark the small reaction right after the buying climax in the 584 00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:08,200 sloping trading range? Okay, so I think that we're talking about the 585 00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:09,640 distributional trading range. 586 00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:10,840 Let's look at that. 587 00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:15,720 how would we label this small reaction? 588 00:45:17,060 --> 00:45:21,300 I don't think that we could label this or we should label this, right? Because, 589 00:45:21,300 --> 00:45:27,860 again, think about the swings in the trading range, right? So we need to 590 00:45:27,860 --> 00:45:33,880 labeling based on the beginning and the end of the swing, right? So here's the 591 00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:35,780 beginning of the swing. This is the reversal. 592 00:45:36,180 --> 00:45:38,960 This is the end of the swing. This is the reversal area. 593 00:45:39,240 --> 00:45:41,580 And that would define an automatic reaction. 594 00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:46,460 Do we have any reversals in this area? 595 00:45:48,620 --> 00:45:49,660 I don't see one. 596 00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:51,640 Do you? 597 00:45:52,240 --> 00:45:57,700 It has to commute below the significant bar to the upside. 598 00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:04,180 So there is no reversal in this area. So therefore, we could just say that this 599 00:46:04,180 --> 00:46:05,180 is a buying climax. 600 00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:10,300 Sometimes I see a labeling like this, buying climax, automatic reaction. 601 00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:12,040 Secondary test. 602 00:46:12,380 --> 00:46:17,320 That doesn't necessarily make sense to me. I would rather label it differently. 603 00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:22,600 I would rather take this whole area right here, and I would go into the 604 00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:28,500 level, and there I would be thinking, okay, buying climax, then automatic 605 00:46:28,500 --> 00:46:31,840 reaction, secondary test, phase B, phase C. 606 00:46:32,140 --> 00:46:37,600 This becomes the distributional structure with a small cause to push the 607 00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:38,740 lower into this low. 608 00:46:40,210 --> 00:46:45,750 So that would make sense to me. But it wouldn't make sense to me at all to 609 00:46:45,750 --> 00:46:47,850 this as an automatic reaction. Why? 610 00:46:49,490 --> 00:46:54,930 Well, because an automatic reaction should contain a change of character. Is 611 00:46:54,930 --> 00:46:55,930 this a change of character? 612 00:46:56,390 --> 00:47:01,090 No. This is in line with the previous reaction that we see. A change of 613 00:47:01,090 --> 00:47:02,490 character has come right here. 614 00:47:02,770 --> 00:47:07,210 So therefore, just based on this, this is going to be our automatic reaction. 615 00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:10,920 All right, next one. 616 00:47:13,720 --> 00:47:15,440 Okay, so that we've answered. 617 00:47:20,740 --> 00:47:27,300 How to read Big Down Spread Candle in early December of 1991. 618 00:47:30,140 --> 00:47:34,920 Probably 1990, right? This one right here. That comes from Nilesh. 619 00:47:36,700 --> 00:47:37,700 Okay. 620 00:47:38,300 --> 00:47:42,240 Well, this is just an ending of the major sign of strength. 621 00:47:44,540 --> 00:47:50,660 And that's it. That's how we would read it. Obviously, we see that this is the 622 00:47:50,660 --> 00:47:54,640 bar that has increased downspread. 623 00:47:56,840 --> 00:48:01,660 So that suggests that the volume signature increased here and therefore 624 00:48:01,660 --> 00:48:02,660 coming in. 625 00:48:03,020 --> 00:48:07,200 And usually, you know, at this point, we're going to see some kind of short 626 00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:13,660 -term overbought condition, which brings mean reversion trade for the 627 00:48:13,660 --> 00:48:14,660 professionals. 628 00:48:14,900 --> 00:48:19,500 So that's where supply is coming from, the increase of the supply. 629 00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:27,440 Okay, next one from Lee. 630 00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:33,340 Is the small rally in the middle of December of 1990 631 00:48:33,340 --> 00:48:40,220 making traders to enter prematurely normally? Is there any 632 00:48:40,220 --> 00:48:42,440 method that could use to avoid that? 633 00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:45,000 Yeah, I think we've talked about this, Lee. 634 00:48:45,740 --> 00:48:52,060 Obviously, this breakout is being used in a lot of methodologies to get into 635 00:48:52,060 --> 00:48:56,060 position, and we see this gap that suggests that we can. 636 00:48:57,480 --> 00:48:59,440 buyers at this point of time. 637 00:49:00,860 --> 00:49:07,020 So I'm not going to name the methodologies, but you guys might know 638 00:49:07,020 --> 00:49:08,020 talking about. 639 00:49:08,260 --> 00:49:09,560 How to avoid this? 640 00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:16,880 Well, you know, if you study Wyckoff structure, you would be thinking of what 641 00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:21,760 should come, let's say, after phase C, a major sign of strength. 642 00:49:22,410 --> 00:49:26,870 But the major sign of strength is going to be followed by what? By a backing up 643 00:49:26,870 --> 00:49:28,690 action. Where would it come to? 644 00:49:29,030 --> 00:49:33,170 It usually would come to the area of the support, which acted before as the 645 00:49:33,170 --> 00:49:37,250 resistance. So therefore, when you have an urge to open this position right 646 00:49:37,250 --> 00:49:40,670 here, and you think that the bias is up, think about the structure. 647 00:49:41,070 --> 00:49:46,010 If you think that we are in phase D, then you should be waiting for the 648 00:49:46,010 --> 00:49:46,948 up action. 649 00:49:46,950 --> 00:49:48,670 Another rule of thumb. 650 00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:55,680 is more to the fact that 651 00:49:55,680 --> 00:50:01,680 you want to open your position 652 00:50:01,680 --> 00:50:07,100 after the reaction, not on the breakout. 653 00:50:07,300 --> 00:50:11,900 There are only two spots on the breakout where we want to open a breakout 654 00:50:11,900 --> 00:50:15,960 position. Number one is right here. This is going to be a sign of strength bar 655 00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:18,420 point of entry. 656 00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:24,140 And number two is on the breakout of the backing up action. 657 00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:32,780 And these two of the entry points, one was defined in the course 658 00:50:32,780 --> 00:50:39,460 by SMI. We've talked about this. And then this one is just WTC 659 00:50:39,460 --> 00:50:44,940 entry that I've originated for you guys. And it makes a lot of sense to me 660 00:50:44,940 --> 00:50:51,280 because... At this level, at this breakout level, there is a lot of supply 661 00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:53,180 is already gone. It's absorbed. 662 00:50:53,460 --> 00:50:55,060 There is nothing left. 663 00:50:56,100 --> 00:51:03,000 Okay, but Lee is actually talking about this situation right here. So we have 664 00:51:03,000 --> 00:51:10,000 a move to the downside, and then how would we think about 665 00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:12,960 the reversal, right? So it's all... 666 00:51:13,990 --> 00:51:15,370 In the technique now, Lee. 667 00:51:16,050 --> 00:51:19,710 So let's say that we know that this is a major sign of strength. 668 00:51:20,630 --> 00:51:23,590 Where should it come to? Should it come to this level? 669 00:51:24,030 --> 00:51:29,290 Should it come maybe to this level? So we're still not necessarily close to 670 00:51:29,290 --> 00:51:33,390 area. But let's say that we're not paying attention to that. 671 00:51:33,770 --> 00:51:35,890 Then what should we be paying attention to? 672 00:51:36,390 --> 00:51:39,930 Well, we need to pay attention to the reversal itself. 673 00:51:40,530 --> 00:51:41,750 Was this a reversal? 674 00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:47,740 Well, it seems like it is a reversal for maybe bars like this right here. It 675 00:51:47,740 --> 00:51:51,860 seems like, yes, we reversed that area right here. But are those significant 676 00:51:51,860 --> 00:51:54,540 bars for us to the downside? 677 00:51:55,140 --> 00:51:56,140 Probably not. 678 00:51:56,180 --> 00:52:00,400 What is the significant bar to the downside? Right here. Have we reversed 679 00:52:00,400 --> 00:52:01,400 with this bar? 680 00:52:02,180 --> 00:52:03,180 No. 681 00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:08,600 We would have to overcome $2 here and close above to reverse it. So therefore, 682 00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:11,000 on this bar, especially the last bar. 683 00:52:11,370 --> 00:52:15,270 Look at that gap, small spread, diminishing spread after this bar. 684 00:52:15,510 --> 00:52:20,230 So that doesn't really act a lot as a confirmation of that reversal. 685 00:52:20,490 --> 00:52:25,950 Plus, this bar right here most likely has a volume increase, which suggests an 686 00:52:25,950 --> 00:52:30,050 increase of the supply. So you don't want to come into this position on that 687 00:52:30,050 --> 00:52:31,050 type of bar. 688 00:52:31,870 --> 00:52:35,790 Okay, we'll talk about the reversal more, especially in practicum. 689 00:52:36,550 --> 00:52:40,610 But there is no reversal here. But there is a reversal right here. 690 00:52:41,290 --> 00:52:44,790 Quite a lot of bars are reversing the last commitment to the downside. 691 00:52:46,610 --> 00:52:47,610 Okay. 692 00:52:49,170 --> 00:52:52,270 All right. Let's go to the next chart. 693 00:52:55,350 --> 00:52:57,490 How are we doing? Four o 'clock. Okay. 694 00:52:59,470 --> 00:53:00,890 Let's talk about sprints. 695 00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:10,860 Originally, Wyckoff did not have a definition of a spring, if you can 696 00:53:10,860 --> 00:53:17,460 this. The definition of the spring was added later on by Bob Evans, who was the 697 00:53:17,460 --> 00:53:18,580 apprentice of Wyckoff. 698 00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:25,940 When Wyckoff passed in 1934, Bob Evans inherited the 699 00:53:25,940 --> 00:53:31,140 Stock Market Institute, and he produced a number of 700 00:53:31,140 --> 00:53:34,920 great material points. 701 00:53:35,630 --> 00:53:36,770 about the methodology. 702 00:53:37,690 --> 00:53:43,870 I think, you know, actually Bob Evans was kind of like a godsend to the 703 00:53:43,870 --> 00:53:50,410 methodology, for the methodology not to die after the 1930s, 40s, 704 00:53:50,410 --> 00:53:53,650 and to continue the studies. 705 00:53:53,890 --> 00:53:58,290 And he added a lot to the material. One of the additions was the definition of 706 00:53:58,290 --> 00:54:00,370 the Supreme. Usually Wyckoff would... 707 00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:05,420 refer to the sprint action as a shakeout or a terminal shakeout. 708 00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:11,600 Bob Evans added the definition of the sprint, but he went even further than 709 00:54:11,600 --> 00:54:17,060 this. He gave the definition, he defined different types of sprints. 710 00:54:17,540 --> 00:54:19,340 So let's look at those definitions. 711 00:54:20,240 --> 00:54:24,460 The first type of sprint is sprint number three. 712 00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:30,670 This is probably the most favorable sprint where there is just an attempt or 713 00:54:30,670 --> 00:54:34,750 temporary price commitment below a trading range support level. 714 00:54:35,050 --> 00:54:40,210 So we kind of could see here how the price commits to the downside, but it's 715 00:54:40,210 --> 00:54:41,210 substantial. 716 00:54:42,370 --> 00:54:48,570 And it happens on a relatively low volume signature. So relative to 717 00:54:48,570 --> 00:54:55,450 that we've seen before since Phase A absorption here in Apple, we see that 718 00:54:55,450 --> 00:54:58,030 is... one of the lowest supply signatures. 719 00:54:58,450 --> 00:55:03,390 And it only temporarily commits the next day, comes back into the trading range. 720 00:55:03,590 --> 00:55:09,490 So this is how spring number three would look like. Spring number three, we 721 00:55:09,490 --> 00:55:14,290 would buy on the return into the trading range. So by itself, a return into the 722 00:55:14,290 --> 00:55:18,270 trading range would be defined as the first point of entry for us. 723 00:55:20,430 --> 00:55:27,040 Spring number two is going to have the same principle behind it, but 724 00:55:27,040 --> 00:55:33,080 it's going to be associated more with weak hands panic, mini panic rather, 725 00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:39,180 where supply signature will increase and therefore the volume signature overall 726 00:55:39,180 --> 00:55:46,000 will increase, but it's not necessarily going to be as high as phase A signature 727 00:55:46,000 --> 00:55:49,820 or maybe phase B shakeout type of reactions. 728 00:55:50,660 --> 00:55:52,320 It also might have 729 00:55:54,060 --> 00:55:59,380 a little bit more profound commitment to the downside with multiple closes to 730 00:55:59,380 --> 00:56:06,240 the downside usually maybe two or um you know a more significant penetration 731 00:56:06,240 --> 00:56:12,580 of the support so we could see both from the price and the 732 00:56:12,580 --> 00:56:19,540 supply signature that it's more substantial but yet the um effect of 733 00:56:19,540 --> 00:56:24,620 the spring is the same the price quickly comes back into the trading range. 734 00:56:26,040 --> 00:56:32,180 And we see that it was just an attempt to commit to the downside and it failed. 735 00:56:32,380 --> 00:56:36,060 So in a way, spring acts as a failed signal. 736 00:56:36,380 --> 00:56:42,020 And I mentioned to you guys before that the failed signal in technical analysis 737 00:56:42,020 --> 00:56:44,940 is one of the best signals. 738 00:56:45,640 --> 00:56:52,090 Why? Well, because a failed signal usually is gonna cause A lot of people, 739 00:56:52,310 --> 00:56:56,790 weak hands, on the wrong side of the trade, what you think they're going to 740 00:56:56,790 --> 00:57:00,530 as the price comes back into the trading range, they're going to try to close 741 00:57:00,530 --> 00:57:07,430 this position, making it a market order to 742 00:57:07,430 --> 00:57:12,410 buy, which will push the price through the trading range into the sign of 743 00:57:12,410 --> 00:57:14,850 strength. And that's what we see here. 744 00:57:15,370 --> 00:57:21,920 And then screen number one is something that, I absolutely 745 00:57:21,920 --> 00:57:26,660 don't like. I don't think it should be in the methodology, but because it is, 746 00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:31,480 you know, it's kind of like a legacy concept, so I kind of have to teach it, 747 00:57:31,480 --> 00:57:35,860 I'm obviously teaching it in my own way, stating that it shouldn't be there. 748 00:57:38,900 --> 00:57:44,840 Sprint number one is basically a failure of a sprint to materialize. 749 00:57:45,240 --> 00:57:51,760 and a price breakdown below a trading level support on substantial volume, 750 00:57:52,420 --> 00:57:57,320 that creates a sign of weakness in the distribution. 751 00:57:57,620 --> 00:58:03,080 So effectively, where sprint number one is a sign of weakness in the 752 00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:08,540 distribution, and therefore, could we even discuss it here? Probably not. And 753 00:58:08,540 --> 00:58:12,180 that's kind of like my thing about sprint number one. 754 00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:16,240 It should not be in the method. It should not be discussed as a sprint. It 755 00:58:16,240 --> 00:58:21,340 should not be discussed as part of the potential accumulation structure. 756 00:58:22,080 --> 00:58:27,580 All right. As usual, this slide is, you know, for your homework. 757 00:58:27,980 --> 00:58:31,020 Print it out. Put it into your library of slides. 758 00:58:31,660 --> 00:58:33,980 Study it. You know, look at the examples. 759 00:58:34,540 --> 00:58:37,320 Try to find sprints somewhere else on other examples. 760 00:58:39,690 --> 00:58:46,330 All right, let's go to the next slide. And this one I'll do 761 00:58:46,330 --> 00:58:53,070 by myself. This is an easy one, right? So we have a climactic run. Again, look 762 00:58:53,070 --> 00:58:55,690 at this reaction and then move to the upside. 763 00:58:56,010 --> 00:59:01,370 The question here, well, could we label this as a bind climax, automatic rally, 764 00:59:01,610 --> 00:59:07,730 secondary test that belongs to this whole formation? 765 00:59:08,380 --> 00:59:09,780 No, we can't. Why? 766 00:59:10,040 --> 00:59:15,220 Well, because this reaction is in line with previous reactions that we've seen 767 00:59:15,220 --> 00:59:18,980 before. So therefore, this is not a change of character. 768 00:59:21,380 --> 00:59:26,680 And if it's not a change of character, then this is probably just a small 769 00:59:26,680 --> 00:59:32,500 distributional pattern that we see that creates the causality to push the price 770 00:59:32,500 --> 00:59:37,040 lower into the lows of a true change of character. 771 00:59:38,090 --> 00:59:44,350 This is the reaction that is nothing like we've seen before on the way up. So 772 00:59:44,350 --> 00:59:51,310 therefore, if this is a change of character, then it's located between 773 00:59:51,310 --> 00:59:53,870 the buying climax and automatic reaction. 774 00:59:55,810 --> 01:00:01,190 And therefore, we could label this area as a buying climax trading range with 775 01:00:01,190 --> 01:00:03,030 the characteristics of the climactic run. 776 01:00:03,290 --> 01:00:04,430 And then... 777 01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:11,280 The first move to the downside, and looking again historically at this 778 01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:16,160 I would say that characteristics of this move to the downside with the 779 01:00:16,160 --> 01:00:22,880 increasing downspread and increasing volume signature suggest 780 01:00:22,880 --> 01:00:28,940 that this is more of the climactic nature. This is more of the shakeout 781 01:00:28,940 --> 01:00:34,240 nature. So I would label this as a shakeout. The first reaction up. 782 01:00:34,240 --> 01:00:35,240 rally. 783 01:00:35,440 --> 01:00:41,200 Then look at the test, decreasing spread, decreasing volume. 784 01:00:42,980 --> 01:00:46,340 So that looks like a secondary test. Therefore, phase A. 785 01:00:47,300 --> 01:00:51,260 And then we're going into phase B and into phase C. 786 01:00:51,660 --> 01:00:54,480 Now, I always ask you guys a question. 787 01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:59,520 What do you see? What catches your eye a lot? 788 01:01:01,280 --> 01:01:02,280 Well, 789 01:01:03,340 --> 01:01:07,040 Couple of things that definitely catch my eye. 790 01:01:07,580 --> 01:01:13,240 The first one is the move to the downside, the last move to the downside. 791 01:01:13,240 --> 01:01:19,300 reminds me a lot of the initial move to the downside because it has some kind of 792 01:01:19,300 --> 01:01:25,120 fear built in. All of the previous reactions, it seems like, yes, the price 793 01:01:25,120 --> 01:01:30,680 down, but maybe not so much as on the first and the last reaction right here. 794 01:01:31,610 --> 01:01:37,510 Also, I'm looking at the character, and I see that even though the distance to 795 01:01:37,510 --> 01:01:44,310 the downside increases, the downspread is actually 796 01:01:44,310 --> 01:01:48,090 decreasing, especially in the second portion of this decline. 797 01:01:48,670 --> 01:01:55,030 So these are the possible characteristics of Phase C. Okay, well, 798 01:01:55,030 --> 01:01:57,530 double -check that this is Phase C? 799 01:01:57,850 --> 01:02:01,030 Well, what comes next after Phase C? 800 01:02:01,400 --> 01:02:06,460 a sign of strength, and a sign of strength should show us the commitment 801 01:02:06,460 --> 01:02:13,440 upside, excuse me, definitionally should go, the sign of strength really 802 01:02:13,440 --> 01:02:18,120 should start at the low phase C, go through this whole trading range, commit 803 01:02:18,120 --> 01:02:24,200 the upside, and then spend some time above this resistance and then back up 804 01:02:24,200 --> 01:02:30,240 exactly into the area of the support which acted before the resistance. 805 01:02:31,180 --> 01:02:32,840 We have all of those elements. 806 01:02:33,120 --> 01:02:39,920 And if you are not sure whether this is a major sign of strength or a 807 01:02:39,920 --> 01:02:44,000 backing up action, then look at the characteristics of the rise to the 808 01:02:44,180 --> 01:02:49,560 Obviously, the largest rally is number one. But look at the volume increase and 809 01:02:49,560 --> 01:02:52,420 specifically demand increase behind this rally. 810 01:02:52,840 --> 01:02:57,260 So that looks very constructive. And then the backing up action just 811 01:02:57,480 --> 01:03:03,280 By the way, that question that Justin had at the top of the hour, at the top 812 01:03:03,280 --> 01:03:03,899 the class. 813 01:03:03,900 --> 01:03:09,180 Could the backing up action only be on the diminution volume signature, or 814 01:03:09,180 --> 01:03:14,220 we have the increase of the volume signature? Well, here it is, an increase 815 01:03:14,220 --> 01:03:19,400 the volume signature, and the price actually goes down. So we can't open 816 01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:24,980 position here until we actually have the test that exhibits 817 01:03:24,980 --> 01:03:28,180 structural high or low. 818 01:03:28,720 --> 01:03:33,660 and exhibits diminishing supply signature right here. 819 01:03:35,860 --> 01:03:41,380 So that would be our confirmation. Plus it comes to the area of the resistance, 820 01:03:41,500 --> 01:03:46,700 so just a really, really perfect blend in there. So here is our labeling here. 821 01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:48,840 C, 822 01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:53,420 A, B, and then... 823 01:03:55,360 --> 01:03:59,060 Phase C would be labeled just because this is not the lowest low. 824 01:03:59,840 --> 01:04:04,140 It's a higher low. We label it as the last point of support. 825 01:04:07,160 --> 01:04:08,160 Okay. 826 01:04:10,180 --> 01:04:15,100 Here's my labeling. You could just go through this labeling at home. 827 01:04:16,940 --> 01:04:20,280 Okay, let's talk about upsloping and downsloping ranges. 828 01:04:21,180 --> 01:04:27,080 So students were asking me, what are the rules as to how you create upsloping, 829 01:04:27,200 --> 01:04:28,580 downsloping ranges? 830 01:04:29,200 --> 01:04:35,540 I kind of explained to you guys how I did this on the previous 831 01:04:35,540 --> 01:04:36,540 slides. 832 01:04:37,940 --> 01:04:40,940 That was my answer to Philip's question, I believe. 833 01:04:41,740 --> 01:04:45,940 So let's look really quickly at the bottom chart. 834 01:04:46,180 --> 01:04:49,840 And this is a downsloping reaccumulation trading range. 835 01:04:50,520 --> 01:04:52,400 So we're seeing the climactic run. 836 01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:59,260 And then look at the downtrend. And look at this rally right here. This rally 837 01:04:59,260 --> 01:05:04,100 acts as a better rally than anything else. So that's a change of character. 838 01:05:04,320 --> 01:05:07,800 At this point of time, you would be thinking we're going to be in the 839 01:05:07,800 --> 01:05:08,800 trading range. 840 01:05:08,900 --> 01:05:10,180 And we actually... 841 01:05:21,370 --> 01:05:22,370 Apologies. 842 01:05:23,630 --> 01:05:30,270 We actually see how the price finds the support on the next low, tries to rally, 843 01:05:30,450 --> 01:05:33,350 but not a lot of good demand. 844 01:05:33,550 --> 01:05:39,350 So it starts to go down again, and this is where supply and demand increase at 845 01:05:39,350 --> 01:05:40,350 the same time. 846 01:05:40,930 --> 01:05:46,350 But we're still deviating around the mean in the same structure. So now the 847 01:05:46,350 --> 01:05:50,650 structure has expanded because of this low. So now we're still in the 848 01:05:51,080 --> 01:05:53,080 We still would be thinking horizontal structure. 849 01:05:53,360 --> 01:06:00,260 But at the same time, we would be maybe thinking we have lower highs, 850 01:06:00,520 --> 01:06:01,640 we have lower lows. 851 01:06:02,040 --> 01:06:07,040 This is the scenario where in this type of trading range, with the lower highs, 852 01:06:07,080 --> 01:06:10,820 lower lows, we might be considering a downsloping structure. 853 01:06:11,140 --> 01:06:17,960 So we would define the lows, one, two, and then have this 854 01:06:17,960 --> 01:06:19,700 downsloping line. 855 01:06:20,270 --> 01:06:26,410 And then we could use significant Weike points to define 856 01:06:26,410 --> 01:06:31,210 next lines that we need to use, right? So for instance, this was a very 857 01:06:31,210 --> 01:06:32,210 important line. 858 01:06:32,850 --> 01:06:39,830 So please note how both the sprain or shakeout in phase C has 859 01:06:39,830 --> 01:06:45,050 been defined by those lines. That's number one. And how the sign of strength 860 01:06:45,050 --> 01:06:47,750 the backing up action have been defined. 861 01:06:48,320 --> 01:06:51,440 have been defined by this line. 862 01:06:54,900 --> 01:06:59,880 Isn't it more effective from trading point of view to take this trading range 863 01:06:59,880 --> 01:07:02,360 trends? There is a substantial distance travel. 864 01:07:03,320 --> 01:07:09,360 If the goal, Philip, is to trade this area right here, then yes, 865 01:07:09,600 --> 01:07:12,500 definitely. You would be thinking that... 866 01:07:12,840 --> 01:07:18,180 This is a definition of the downtrend as lower highs and lower lows unfold. 867 01:07:19,060 --> 01:07:24,400 Unfortunately, in the context of a much larger trend, this is just a 868 01:07:24,400 --> 01:07:30,260 reaccumulation. And we don't necessarily want to trade to the downside in the 869 01:07:30,260 --> 01:07:35,500 reaccumulation. Unless, and just quickly write down, you know, what is your 870 01:07:35,500 --> 01:07:38,380 timeframe, you know, that you trade. 871 01:07:39,070 --> 01:07:44,010 Unless you are a very, very short -term oriented trader. So for instance, you 872 01:07:44,010 --> 01:07:48,690 are maybe like two to three days in a position, maybe a week. 873 01:07:48,930 --> 01:07:55,730 Then you could say, okay, I see that we have, let's say after phase B, 874 01:07:55,910 --> 01:08:02,830 we come to the area of the support on the climactic run, then on the retest 875 01:08:02,830 --> 01:08:04,870 of that, and then it fails. 876 01:08:05,210 --> 01:08:07,830 So here I could initiate the trade. 877 01:08:08,330 --> 01:08:10,550 with the target zone somewhere here. 878 01:08:11,450 --> 01:08:13,470 So then you could trade that. 879 01:08:15,730 --> 01:08:21,170 And probably your first target and first exit is going to be somewhere here, and 880 01:08:21,170 --> 01:08:24,490 then the second target and second exit is going to be somewhere here. 881 01:08:25,630 --> 01:08:27,910 So from that perspective, you could do this. 882 01:08:28,210 --> 01:08:33,290 But we're looking at the overall structure, right? So an overall 883 01:08:33,290 --> 01:08:37,420 dictates that we are actually in the reaccumulation. 884 01:08:37,680 --> 01:08:41,840 And if this is a reaccumulation, we're trying to define what kind of range we 885 01:08:41,840 --> 01:08:47,359 have. Horizontal does not work that well, but downsloping range works 886 01:08:47,359 --> 01:08:48,359 well. 887 01:08:48,520 --> 01:08:54,399 In the downsloping, upsloping range, one of the confirmation that this works is 888 01:08:54,399 --> 01:08:57,359 in the definition of the sign of strength and sign of weakness. 889 01:08:57,720 --> 01:09:03,140 We want to see the overcoming of the resistance in the reaccumulation on the 890 01:09:03,140 --> 01:09:04,260 sign of strength rally. 891 01:09:04,500 --> 01:09:09,670 And then, a backing up action that comes exactly to this area of the support, 892 01:09:09,910 --> 01:09:11,830 which acted before as the resistance. 893 01:09:12,210 --> 01:09:14,590 The same in the upsloping structure. 894 01:09:14,950 --> 01:09:21,229 We would take the low in phase A, connect it either to the low in phase B 895 01:09:21,229 --> 01:09:27,109 phase C, in this case phase C, and then use the parallel lines that we could 896 01:09:27,109 --> 01:09:32,069 project from the automatic reaction and the upthrust action. 897 01:09:32,390 --> 01:09:39,270 And if we see that the rally off the lows in phase C, overcomes those points 898 01:09:39,270 --> 01:09:45,029 of resistance that were created in phases A and B, and the price commits 899 01:09:45,029 --> 01:09:51,590 spends time above that resistance, and then backs down exactly to the area of 900 01:09:51,590 --> 01:09:55,410 the support, then we would be thinking that this is a confirmation of the sign 901 01:09:55,410 --> 01:09:59,170 of strength, which is being shown to us in the backing up action. 902 01:10:00,290 --> 01:10:03,910 So the procedure is the same, right? 903 01:10:04,700 --> 01:10:11,700 We're still going to be looking at change of character, defining 904 01:10:11,700 --> 01:10:18,420 the trading ranges, and then once we start seeing higher highs, 905 01:10:18,820 --> 01:10:24,940 higher lows for the upsloping range, or lower highs, lower lows for the 906 01:10:24,940 --> 01:10:29,720 downsloping range, that's when we'll start projecting different 907 01:10:29,720 --> 01:10:33,460 scenarios here for the structure. 908 01:10:35,309 --> 01:10:41,510 And again, you could read all of this right here and just go through all of 909 01:10:41,510 --> 01:10:46,210 this. It just has more explanation, so something for the homework. 910 01:10:53,110 --> 01:10:57,130 All right, let's go to the next chart. 911 01:10:57,370 --> 01:11:00,330 Okay, so this one is easy too, so let me just go through this. 912 01:11:01,290 --> 01:11:03,330 Kind of reminds me of... 913 01:11:04,170 --> 01:11:09,230 Well, we've seen this, right? So we've seen this. And here, the same, I think 914 01:11:09,230 --> 01:11:10,610 this is the same slide, right? 915 01:11:10,910 --> 01:11:16,690 The same trading range. You could use an upsloping structure, but in this case, 916 01:11:16,710 --> 01:11:20,450 I'm just using conventional horizontal lines. 917 01:11:20,950 --> 01:11:26,210 A downtrend, which leads to the climactic action, well -defined on the 918 01:11:26,210 --> 01:11:30,850 reaction to the downside with the price and the volume increase signature. 919 01:11:31,610 --> 01:11:33,110 So that's very evident. 920 01:11:33,550 --> 01:11:38,130 Right away, we think what comes next, a change of character or the automatic 921 01:11:38,130 --> 01:11:42,550 reaction rally, and then it's being followed by a secondary test. 922 01:11:42,810 --> 01:11:47,190 Please note how in all of these instances, secondary tests at the end of 923 01:11:47,190 --> 01:11:53,910 reaction has this decreasing downspread signature and also 924 01:11:53,910 --> 01:11:58,330 decreasing volume signature or decreasing supply signature. 925 01:12:00,330 --> 01:12:04,910 test the supply level that was at the climactic action, and we could see that 926 01:12:04,910 --> 01:12:08,150 the test, there's really not a lot of supply left. 927 01:12:08,850 --> 01:12:15,710 And then a very common upthrust action in phase B, which is 928 01:12:15,710 --> 01:12:21,930 being followed by laborious decline into phase C. And this laborious decline, 929 01:12:22,010 --> 01:12:26,030 this is something that we like to see going into phase C. 930 01:12:26,690 --> 01:12:32,760 It suggests that Weak hands are selling, but strong hands are already buying. 931 01:12:33,240 --> 01:12:37,360 And that's why it becomes such a laborious move to the upside. 932 01:12:37,660 --> 01:12:40,520 We could see some buying behind the volume signature. 933 01:12:40,980 --> 01:12:45,680 And we're still seeing, you know, maybe like a slight deterioration of the 934 01:12:45,680 --> 01:12:48,520 supply going into potential phase C. 935 01:12:49,100 --> 01:12:55,640 It creates a higher low, which suggests that the downward result is diminished 936 01:12:55,640 --> 01:12:56,640 significantly. 937 01:12:57,269 --> 01:13:03,870 And with that, we're thinking that the bias is going to be to the upside. 938 01:13:06,070 --> 01:13:12,130 I would probably put the boundary for phase C somewhere here. 939 01:13:13,030 --> 01:13:17,990 Why here? Well, because there are multiple tests in phase B that are being 940 01:13:17,990 --> 01:13:23,450 violated in this area. So this is the first time where those tests are 941 01:13:23,450 --> 01:13:30,320 happening. So therefore, with the intention behind... phase c to test to 942 01:13:30,320 --> 01:13:37,140 produce that final test at the point of the support we have seen 943 01:13:37,140 --> 01:13:44,100 that the support in phase b is somewhere here so we're trying to identify the 944 01:13:44,100 --> 01:13:48,900 boundaries as that initial test of that support so therefore your boundary is 945 01:13:48,900 --> 01:13:53,380 going to be there the next rally is very evident it commits above 946 01:13:54,190 --> 01:13:59,290 any of the levels of the resistance so therefore uh it's a major sign of 947 01:13:59,290 --> 01:14:05,530 strength and then we're seeing you know an accumulation range again here we 948 01:14:05,530 --> 01:14:12,250 would be thinking phase c sign of strength uh lps so backing up action at 949 01:14:12,250 --> 01:14:18,910 point um phase a phase b up thrust action so 950 01:14:18,910 --> 01:14:21,650 everything looks to be normal and then 951 01:14:22,559 --> 01:14:28,100 Phase D is going to conclude, of the larger range, is going to be concluded 952 01:14:28,120 --> 01:14:31,200 you know, phase D of the smaller range. So let's have a look. 953 01:14:34,480 --> 01:14:40,560 All right. And what else could we mention here? 954 01:14:41,160 --> 01:14:47,960 Okay, so a question from Ronnie. If A is point number one and phase 955 01:14:47,960 --> 01:14:53,290 C is point number three, What did you find as point number two on slide number 956 01:14:53,290 --> 01:14:54,290 five? 957 01:14:56,410 --> 01:15:02,510 Okay, so A is 958 01:15:02,510 --> 01:15:04,830 test number one, 959 01:15:06,130 --> 01:15:08,070 right? Test number one. 960 01:15:08,850 --> 01:15:12,790 And then phase C is test number three. 961 01:15:14,010 --> 01:15:17,290 Then where is our test number two? Well, all of those tests. 962 01:15:17,950 --> 01:15:24,870 right here in phase b those are number two tests so again think in terms of 963 01:15:24,870 --> 01:15:31,730 the texture right so here is texture number one in phase a 964 01:15:31,730 --> 01:15:38,430 then we have a texture um in phase c which is basically a trading 965 01:15:38,430 --> 01:15:44,770 range of its own we have a selling climax automatic rally secondary test 966 01:15:44,770 --> 01:15:51,320 up thrust action and then its own phase C. So this looks like its own formation. 967 01:15:51,780 --> 01:15:53,820 And then what remains? 968 01:15:54,180 --> 01:15:56,960 Well, it seems like these three spots remain. 969 01:15:57,360 --> 01:15:59,400 And they look the same. 970 01:16:00,060 --> 01:16:06,860 Why? Well, because the reactions to these lows look somewhat the same. 971 01:16:07,040 --> 01:16:13,000 They are in the context of the uptrend, short -term uptrend that we see as well. 972 01:16:13,870 --> 01:16:15,690 and then belong to the same phase. 973 01:16:15,910 --> 01:16:22,710 So this is just a series of multiple tests, a multiple test 974 01:16:22,710 --> 01:16:25,650 number two in phase B. 975 01:16:26,030 --> 01:16:28,550 By the way, guys, think about this. 976 01:16:29,430 --> 01:16:36,250 If you are observing this type of the behavior in phase B, what could 977 01:16:36,250 --> 01:16:40,210 we conclude about the bias of this formation? 978 01:16:42,540 --> 01:16:45,300 Well, it's probably going to be to the upside. Why? 979 01:16:46,420 --> 01:16:51,560 Well, look at how the tests in phase B are happening at the higher lows. 980 01:16:53,000 --> 01:16:57,280 Because it happens at the higher lows, this is a point of strength. 981 01:16:57,680 --> 01:16:59,420 Why is this a point of strength? 982 01:17:01,160 --> 01:17:06,240 Well, think about the institutions here, right? So someone's selling, but then 983 01:17:06,240 --> 01:17:09,740 someone's coming in and still produces some buys. 984 01:17:10,640 --> 01:17:17,320 So institutions are buyers in phase B 985 01:17:17,320 --> 01:17:20,060 at higher lows. 986 01:17:22,040 --> 01:17:24,060 This suggests strength. 987 01:17:24,480 --> 01:17:31,220 And even though phase C actually violates those lows, it just 988 01:17:31,220 --> 01:17:36,000 gives us an indication that whatever institutions bought at this point of 989 01:17:36,000 --> 01:17:42,650 on those lows, they are... they are in the vicinity of those large institutions 990 01:17:42,650 --> 01:17:48,210 that were biased on the way down right here and here. And by the way, if we 991 01:17:48,210 --> 01:17:52,890 would look at the value zone, right? So look at this value zone right here. 992 01:17:53,390 --> 01:17:58,870 It's right in this area where we saw some buying before. 993 01:17:59,190 --> 01:18:02,370 This becomes just an extreme oversold. 994 01:18:04,010 --> 01:18:09,370 And then, again, once the price comes back to the value zone, again, we're 995 01:18:09,370 --> 01:18:12,390 seeing a lot of buying at the same price. 996 01:18:13,410 --> 01:18:18,810 And all of the springs that happen, like this spring right here, below this 997 01:18:18,810 --> 01:18:23,250 value zone, happens really fast, commits to the downside, and then recovers 998 01:18:23,250 --> 01:18:29,690 fast. So all of the elements of institutional buying at the specific 999 01:18:29,690 --> 01:18:30,690 value. 1000 01:18:33,260 --> 01:18:34,260 Okay, great. 1001 01:18:35,040 --> 01:18:37,100 Let's talk about the sign of strength. 1002 01:18:37,440 --> 01:18:41,460 So I've already mentioned it many times today. 1003 01:18:43,280 --> 01:18:47,080 Sign of strength, the definition of the sign of strength. And this is something 1004 01:18:47,080 --> 01:18:49,440 that I want you to definitely remember. 1005 01:18:50,440 --> 01:18:55,740 And a little bit of history as to how this definition comes about. 1006 01:18:55,980 --> 01:19:01,020 So I put here pure Romanism, so this means that it comes from me. 1007 01:19:02,600 --> 01:19:08,100 The problem with the sign of strength in the methodology was that it was defined 1008 01:19:08,100 --> 01:19:14,180 as a sign of strength was defined as a sign of strength bar. 1009 01:19:14,900 --> 01:19:20,620 And usually when I would ask a student to define a sign of strength, 1010 01:19:20,900 --> 01:19:27,640 they would usually say, well, it's a bar that has an 1011 01:19:27,640 --> 01:19:31,340 increasing spread to the upside and increasing volume signature. 1012 01:19:32,300 --> 01:19:36,740 And that was kind of like a definition for the sign of strength. Well, first of 1013 01:19:36,740 --> 01:19:41,800 all, that's not necessarily a definition of a sign of strength. 1014 01:19:43,580 --> 01:19:48,060 It could be even a definition of a sign of strength bar. 1015 01:19:48,580 --> 01:19:49,700 It's a characteristic. 1016 01:19:50,720 --> 01:19:56,980 We know that the characteristics of the sign of strength bar are going to be 1017 01:19:56,980 --> 01:20:01,440 exactly that, increasing upspread and increasing volume signature. 1018 01:20:02,410 --> 01:20:06,810 But it's not necessarily a definition for a sign of strength rally. 1019 01:20:08,810 --> 01:20:15,490 So let's look at this. A sign of strength bar is going to be this, right? 1020 01:20:15,490 --> 01:20:22,470 that is increasing in spread and increasing in the 1021 01:20:22,470 --> 01:20:23,470 volume signature. 1022 01:20:25,230 --> 01:20:30,470 This bar does not qualify as a sign of strength rally. 1023 01:20:31,180 --> 01:20:37,660 A sign of strength rally definition is going to be a rally that travels off the 1024 01:20:37,660 --> 01:20:44,360 lows in phase C throughout the whole range that commits above the area of the 1025 01:20:44,360 --> 01:20:49,740 resistance that was created by phases A and B. So we see that commitment right 1026 01:20:49,740 --> 01:20:56,600 here. That spends time above that area or in this area. 1027 01:20:56,700 --> 01:20:59,520 And then that has a backing up action. 1028 01:21:00,030 --> 01:21:05,850 that comes exactly to the area of the support that 1029 01:21:05,850 --> 01:21:11,690 acted before as the resistance and was created in phases A and B. 1030 01:21:12,330 --> 01:21:16,030 And that's the definition of the sign of strength, rally. 1031 01:21:16,550 --> 01:21:21,630 So this I definitely want you to remember because I will be asking you 1032 01:21:21,630 --> 01:21:24,630 times, what is the definition of the sign of strength? 1033 01:21:24,850 --> 01:21:26,670 What is the definition of the upthrust? 1034 01:21:27,560 --> 01:21:29,580 And you should remember this by heart. 1035 01:21:32,900 --> 01:21:33,900 All right. 1036 01:21:34,340 --> 01:21:39,540 What else? So a big difference between a sign of strength and a sign of rally 1037 01:21:39,540 --> 01:21:40,800 and a sign of strength bar. 1038 01:21:41,660 --> 01:21:46,380 So in all of the cases, what we're looking for is the commitment, right? So 1039 01:21:46,380 --> 01:21:51,560 commitment to the upside if this is a sign of strength. 1040 01:21:54,480 --> 01:21:56,480 Off the lows in phase C. 1041 01:21:56,970 --> 01:22:01,890 through the trading range, commitment to the upside, and then a backing up 1042 01:22:01,890 --> 01:22:08,130 action that comes exactly to the area of the support that acted before 1043 01:22:08,130 --> 01:22:09,410 as the resistance. 1044 01:22:13,270 --> 01:22:14,590 All right, great. 1045 01:22:17,690 --> 01:22:22,670 Okay, so this one is interesting. So let's have a volunteer just say yes, and 1046 01:22:22,670 --> 01:22:23,670 I'll unmute you. 1047 01:22:26,470 --> 01:22:28,410 And especially the first trading range. 1048 01:22:29,010 --> 01:22:34,490 I wonder, guys, how you would be looking at that, how you would define that. 1049 01:22:34,830 --> 01:22:35,950 Okay, so volunteer. 1050 01:22:42,090 --> 01:22:47,410 No volunteers. 1051 01:22:48,010 --> 01:22:51,110 All right, Nilesh. Okay, let's go to you. 1052 01:22:56,940 --> 01:22:57,940 How are you doing? 1053 01:22:58,480 --> 01:23:01,900 Say again your name so that I would pronounce it correctly. 1054 01:23:03,060 --> 01:23:05,280 Nilesh. Nilesh. Okay, great. 1055 01:23:05,880 --> 01:23:11,540 Okay, so Nilesh, trading range number one, how would we label it? What catches 1056 01:23:11,540 --> 01:23:12,540 your eye? 1057 01:23:13,400 --> 01:23:20,380 So beginning of September, that seems to me like a ceiling climax. 1058 01:23:24,590 --> 01:23:26,590 Price tried to go down. 1059 01:23:28,270 --> 01:23:29,990 Price first goes up. 1060 01:23:30,490 --> 01:23:34,590 Right. So what is this initial move to the upside then? 1061 01:23:35,250 --> 01:23:36,950 That's the automatic reaction. 1062 01:23:37,330 --> 01:23:40,510 And then it's kind of combined into a single bar, I would say. 1063 01:23:41,130 --> 01:23:45,430 The selling climax as well as the automatic reaction happened kind of on 1064 01:23:45,430 --> 01:23:47,990 same day. That's how I think I would interpret that. 1065 01:23:48,250 --> 01:23:51,470 Yes, that's totally correct. The same day exhibits both. 1066 01:23:52,190 --> 01:23:54,190 Selling climax and automatic rally. 1067 01:23:54,590 --> 01:24:00,050 Okay. So then the next reaction and the next low as a high low could be labeled 1068 01:24:00,050 --> 01:24:01,870 as? Secondary test. 1069 01:24:02,210 --> 01:24:03,210 And that defines? 1070 01:24:03,990 --> 01:24:04,889 Phase A. 1071 01:24:04,890 --> 01:24:07,650 Phase A. The intention of phase A is? 1072 01:24:08,790 --> 01:24:09,790 Stopping action. 1073 01:24:10,030 --> 01:24:12,090 Stopping action. Great. What are we stopping? 1074 01:24:13,750 --> 01:24:16,210 The downward movement. 1075 01:24:16,610 --> 01:24:19,270 Okay. Great. So now that we've stopped that. 1076 01:24:19,580 --> 01:24:22,540 Now we could define the resistance and the support. 1077 01:24:22,840 --> 01:24:25,940 So we always will start with the horizontal range. 1078 01:24:26,260 --> 01:24:31,080 And that's my suggestion to all of you. Sometimes, you know, I hear questions 1079 01:24:31,080 --> 01:24:37,260 that, when do we start, you know, putting the down slope and up slope and 1080 01:24:37,260 --> 01:24:39,060 resistance and support? 1081 01:24:39,600 --> 01:24:41,620 Well, initially... 1082 01:24:42,000 --> 01:24:47,800 always, always put the horizontal boundaries first for the range. This is 1083 01:24:47,800 --> 01:24:51,000 the majority of the time the price would spend. 1084 01:24:51,280 --> 01:24:57,640 And then once you start seeing lower lows or higher highs, that's when you 1085 01:24:57,640 --> 01:25:01,040 go in and establish, you know, more of the downsloping. 1086 01:25:01,640 --> 01:25:07,260 Okay, so what is next? What catches your eye next in this trading range? 1087 01:25:07,840 --> 01:25:13,080 Right. Then in phase B, there are series of secondary tests. 1088 01:25:13,700 --> 01:25:19,680 Is phase B the most exciting to you as you look at this chart? 1089 01:25:19,960 --> 01:25:21,920 Or are you just going sequentially? 1090 01:25:22,800 --> 01:25:24,420 Yeah, I was just going sequentially. 1091 01:25:25,160 --> 01:25:28,380 Yeah, so let's just pay attention to the question itself. 1092 01:25:28,620 --> 01:25:32,540 What catches your eye and not necessarily what comes next? 1093 01:25:33,600 --> 01:25:36,360 The downward movement, right, which happened. 1094 01:25:37,960 --> 01:25:41,200 around the phase C test, right? 1095 01:25:41,640 --> 01:25:43,400 Around October, right? 1096 01:25:44,240 --> 01:25:50,840 Yeah, the downward reaction and then the test that happened around 1097 01:25:50,840 --> 01:25:54,680 October. So how do we label this whole thing here? 1098 01:25:55,120 --> 01:25:56,900 That would be phase C. 1099 01:25:57,100 --> 01:26:03,780 Okay, phase C. And how would we label this price action in phase C? 1100 01:26:04,800 --> 01:26:05,800 Spring. 1101 01:26:06,440 --> 01:26:07,840 Yeah, it could be a spring. 1102 01:26:09,240 --> 01:26:14,760 Obviously, it has all of those characteristics of the spring where 1103 01:26:14,760 --> 01:26:17,360 attempt to commit and then the recovery, quick recovery. 1104 01:26:17,980 --> 01:26:23,360 My only hesitation here is the volume signature, so such a big increase in the 1105 01:26:23,360 --> 01:26:24,360 volume signature. 1106 01:26:26,140 --> 01:26:31,660 So this also could suggest that it could be labeled also as a potential 1107 01:26:31,660 --> 01:26:32,660 shakeout. 1108 01:26:33,459 --> 01:26:37,540 especially if you're using the horizontal range, then somebody might 1109 01:26:37,640 --> 01:26:42,040 yeah, I see a lot of volume. I see a lot of, you know, penetration below the 1110 01:26:42,040 --> 01:26:43,040 support area. 1111 01:26:43,140 --> 01:26:49,600 I think spring is better here at this spot just because we don't see, you 1112 01:26:49,620 --> 01:26:55,080 big commitments to the downside in this phase C. All right. So if this is a 1113 01:26:55,080 --> 01:27:00,880 spring or a shakeout, then what comes next after, you know, after phase C? 1114 01:27:02,060 --> 01:27:03,400 Sign of strength rally. 1115 01:27:03,740 --> 01:27:08,500 Okay. Yeah, that's the one. And then we have a backing up action. 1116 01:27:09,380 --> 01:27:14,380 Okay, great. And then everything in between C and A is B. 1117 01:27:14,660 --> 01:27:20,640 And this attempt to overcome the resistance and commit to the upside with 1118 01:27:20,640 --> 01:27:24,000 return into the trading range, we would label as? 1119 01:27:24,580 --> 01:27:26,520 Up thrust in phase B. 1120 01:27:26,760 --> 01:27:29,040 Up thrust action in phase B. 1121 01:27:29,710 --> 01:27:30,589 Okay, great. 1122 01:27:30,590 --> 01:27:32,350 So here is our whole labeling. 1123 01:27:33,530 --> 01:27:39,910 One of the things here was the horizontal range. If we're thinking that 1124 01:27:39,910 --> 01:27:44,370 it, look at the sign of strength, how it comes to the point of the resistance, 1125 01:27:44,530 --> 01:27:51,030 and it doesn't overcome it. So if you're using the horizontal range, then 1126 01:27:51,030 --> 01:27:54,730 it's going to be really difficult to... 1127 01:27:56,570 --> 01:27:58,350 contemplate about this at this spot. 1128 01:27:58,590 --> 01:28:00,850 Why is it failing at the point of the resistance? 1129 01:28:01,150 --> 01:28:03,550 Is this a sign of weakness by itself? 1130 01:28:04,090 --> 01:28:05,190 That failure. 1131 01:28:05,730 --> 01:28:12,490 But if you're using a downsloping picture, then a downsloping 1132 01:28:12,490 --> 01:28:16,790 range, then you can clearly see that there is a commitment to the upside. 1133 01:28:17,090 --> 01:28:22,330 And more importantly, as this commitment develops as a sign of strength rally, 1134 01:28:22,650 --> 01:28:25,350 there is a backup. 1135 01:28:25,790 --> 01:28:30,570 into the support that acted before as a point of resistance. 1136 01:28:31,170 --> 01:28:36,190 So that confirms structurally that indeed this was a sign of strength in 1137 01:28:36,190 --> 01:28:40,370 backing up action. And therefore, this is phase C and this is phase D. 1138 01:28:40,610 --> 01:28:46,930 And if you missed your entry on this spring, or let's say on the sign of 1139 01:28:46,930 --> 01:28:52,930 strength bar, then you could definitely enter somewhere here in this area. 1140 01:28:53,420 --> 01:28:56,880 on the smaller back and up action that belongs to this whole range. 1141 01:28:58,360 --> 01:28:59,840 All right, great. 1142 01:29:00,300 --> 01:29:02,500 Let's go to the second trading range. 1143 01:29:03,780 --> 01:29:09,640 And Nilesh, let's start with phase A. 1144 01:29:10,380 --> 01:29:13,700 Sure, that would be buying climax where your pointer is. 1145 01:29:14,000 --> 01:29:19,400 And the downward reaction would be automatic reaction. 1146 01:29:21,230 --> 01:29:23,550 And then we have a second test. 1147 01:29:24,710 --> 01:29:26,310 That would be phase A. 1148 01:29:26,650 --> 01:29:27,650 Okay. 1149 01:29:28,110 --> 01:29:34,710 And then we, in phase, okay, then phase B, again, we are testing the same. 1150 01:29:35,030 --> 01:29:39,590 There is one upthrust action in phase B that I see. 1151 01:29:40,290 --> 01:29:47,070 And in phase C, Where is phase C? 1152 01:29:47,630 --> 01:29:53,190 In August, after August, August 9, I guess, somewhere around that, yeah, 1153 01:29:53,190 --> 01:29:57,890 where we are testing the freeze B lows for the last time. 1154 01:29:58,130 --> 01:29:59,130 Excellent. 1155 01:29:59,870 --> 01:30:06,810 And that's, yeah, I do see an increase in volume 1156 01:30:06,810 --> 01:30:13,650 there, but I think the downward spread is lower there, and we do not reach 1157 01:30:13,650 --> 01:30:17,030 earlier supports as well. So that's the point. 1158 01:30:18,630 --> 01:30:23,090 Still high or low relative to the lows in phase A. 1159 01:30:23,510 --> 01:30:30,390 Right. Then we have a sign of strength rally but which 1160 01:30:30,390 --> 01:30:37,270 it goes to the buying climax but not really crossing the upthrust 1161 01:30:37,270 --> 01:30:41,590 action that we had in phase B until later in October. 1162 01:30:41,850 --> 01:30:44,110 Think about the definition of the sign of strength. 1163 01:30:44,310 --> 01:30:51,080 We said that a sign of strength should rally off the lows in 1164 01:30:51,080 --> 01:30:57,440 phase C, go through the whole range, commit to the upside. So all of this 1165 01:30:57,440 --> 01:31:02,660 rallies right here, those are kind of like minor signs of strength, right? So 1166 01:31:02,660 --> 01:31:06,900 they're still in the trading range. They have not overcome all of these points 1167 01:31:06,900 --> 01:31:09,540 of the resistance that we have in phases A and B. 1168 01:31:10,960 --> 01:31:16,900 Therefore, you're looking for the commitment that is above all of the 1169 01:31:16,900 --> 01:31:19,440 lines. Where is it? Somewhere here. 1170 01:31:19,740 --> 01:31:25,700 You also want to see that the price consolidates, spends time above that 1171 01:31:25,700 --> 01:31:32,340 push up, and then comes and backs up exactly to the area of the support that 1172 01:31:32,340 --> 01:31:36,220 acted before as the resistance. 1173 01:31:36,560 --> 01:31:39,760 Therefore, a sign of strength in the backing up action. 1174 01:31:40,160 --> 01:31:46,840 has been shown to us here and therefore they belong to phase d okay great um 1175 01:31:46,840 --> 01:31:53,780 i have one question um uh so in this whole structure 1176 01:31:53,780 --> 01:31:58,800 right what would be as in where would you think about opening uh position 1177 01:31:58,800 --> 01:32:05,180 it be in uh buying backing backing up action only or are there any other 1178 01:32:05,180 --> 01:32:06,180 interesting uh 1179 01:32:07,059 --> 01:32:11,240 where you see the signs of upward reversal. 1180 01:32:11,760 --> 01:32:12,760 Okay, 1181 01:32:13,280 --> 01:32:18,920 so in other words, where would we be opening positions, right? Am I correct? 1182 01:32:19,400 --> 01:32:24,260 Yes. All right, great, great question. Thank you, Nilesh, and I'm going to mute 1183 01:32:24,260 --> 01:32:25,260 you. 1184 01:32:25,660 --> 01:32:30,380 Okay, so one of the things here right away, and we'll come back to this 1185 01:32:30,380 --> 01:32:34,680 in a second, climactic run is very well defined. 1186 01:32:35,470 --> 01:32:40,070 So there is a climactic volume here. A climactic volume does not necessarily 1187 01:32:40,070 --> 01:32:42,210 have to come on the last bar. 1188 01:32:42,870 --> 01:32:48,310 It has to come on the last rally, though, and be a part of that rally. 1189 01:32:49,370 --> 01:32:55,030 But we clearly see that there is a momentum move, there is a vertical 1190 01:32:55,030 --> 01:33:01,110 on the way up, and then there is a climactic run, which is being concluded 1191 01:33:01,110 --> 01:33:03,870 followed by a change of character. 1192 01:33:05,009 --> 01:33:09,810 And I'm looking at the next reaction to the downside, and this looks to me like 1193 01:33:09,810 --> 01:33:10,509 a test. 1194 01:33:10,510 --> 01:33:15,670 So I'm starting to think that, hmm, could I label it in a slightly different 1195 01:33:15,670 --> 01:33:21,370 way? Remember how we said that sometimes we could label a reaccumulation as it 1196 01:33:21,370 --> 01:33:27,330 starts up to the backing up action as a shakeout that is being followed just 1197 01:33:27,330 --> 01:33:28,330 like a regular. 1198 01:33:28,780 --> 01:33:32,140 accumulation labeling, automatic rally, and secondary test. 1199 01:33:32,480 --> 01:33:34,520 So I think this is appropriate here. 1200 01:33:34,940 --> 01:33:41,720 Bind climax, a shakeout type of action on the increased volume signature, and 1201 01:33:41,720 --> 01:33:48,040 doesn't really behave as a pronounced move to the downside. So right here, 1202 01:33:48,040 --> 01:33:54,580 on that, where we see that the distance covered by the rally 1203 01:33:54,580 --> 01:34:01,260 and then the distance covered by the shakeouts are just so different. The 1204 01:34:01,260 --> 01:34:05,520 shakeout is much, much smaller than the distance to the upside. 1205 01:34:05,920 --> 01:34:07,760 So therefore, 1206 01:34:10,220 --> 01:34:15,500 and with the volume signature, we're thinking, okay, maybe like a temporary 1207 01:34:15,500 --> 01:34:21,300 shakeout. If this is a shakeout, then the next thing that we're experiencing 1208 01:34:21,300 --> 01:34:24,520 automatic rally, secondary test, phase A. 1209 01:34:25,360 --> 01:34:30,300 And we kind of see that the texture of phase A is 1210 01:34:30,300 --> 01:34:37,180 congruent with all of these thoughts that I just went through, right? So 1211 01:34:37,180 --> 01:34:44,040 it seems like all of these tests belong to each other, these two 1212 01:34:44,040 --> 01:34:48,740 reactions. The second reaction is just a test of the first reaction. 1213 01:34:48,980 --> 01:34:51,640 So that suggests phase A. 1214 01:34:51,960 --> 01:34:53,740 Then we see that in... 1215 01:34:54,170 --> 01:34:59,190 Phase C reaction, you know, this is a different texture. This is a different 1216 01:34:59,190 --> 01:35:04,030 test. And it looks so different than phase A. It also looks different than 1217 01:35:04,030 --> 01:35:08,450 B. Because as we look at phase B, this is the texture. 1218 01:35:08,930 --> 01:35:13,390 It's kind of like this laborious move to the downside where there's selling, 1219 01:35:13,570 --> 01:35:16,950 selling, selling, selling, selling, selling. 1220 01:35:17,270 --> 01:35:22,110 And yet there is no way that the price can commit below. 1221 01:35:23,020 --> 01:35:24,320 the lows in phase A. 1222 01:35:24,740 --> 01:35:26,160 So that's number one. 1223 01:35:26,420 --> 01:35:32,160 Let's come back to the question by Neil Ash that was about the points of entry. 1224 01:35:32,480 --> 01:35:38,880 So in my trading, I probably would be thinking that after the upthrust action 1225 01:35:38,880 --> 01:35:44,320 phase B, the move to the downside is actually that move into phase C. 1226 01:35:44,760 --> 01:35:50,540 So I would be thinking of interpreting this trading range, thinking that this 1227 01:35:50,540 --> 01:35:51,540 phase C. 1228 01:35:52,160 --> 01:35:57,900 minor sign of strength, maybe major sign of strength right here in the backing 1229 01:35:57,900 --> 01:36:00,500 up action. So there's an entry somewhere here. 1230 01:36:00,800 --> 01:36:06,840 The exit out of this position could be here or on the failure of the support 1231 01:36:06,840 --> 01:36:13,160 right here. So you probably would be ending up with, you know, just a small 1232 01:36:16,100 --> 01:36:19,640 Small win, break even, small loss. 1233 01:36:23,340 --> 01:36:25,720 And that would be your trade number one. 1234 01:36:28,620 --> 01:36:35,080 And again, I'm not shying away out 1235 01:36:35,080 --> 01:36:38,580 of this type of opportunities, out of this type of trade. 1236 01:36:39,900 --> 01:36:46,760 Because I don't necessarily know 100 % that this is going to be phase C. 1237 01:36:46,940 --> 01:36:51,800 I mean, we could go into much deeper analysis and figure out why it wasn't 1238 01:36:51,800 --> 01:36:52,800 C. 1239 01:36:53,280 --> 01:36:59,480 At the same time, in a lot of cases, we just don't see that until it actually 1240 01:36:59,480 --> 01:37:00,480 happens. 1241 01:37:01,140 --> 01:37:07,200 Plus, the character of the move to the upside was actually somewhat okay. 1242 01:37:09,280 --> 01:37:16,100 So therefore, after this first trade, if we're still thinking that this is 1243 01:37:16,100 --> 01:37:20,180 the bias to the upside and we're defining phase C on the next reaction, 1244 01:37:21,040 --> 01:37:22,900 Our entry is going to be somewhere here. 1245 01:37:24,700 --> 01:37:31,040 That's entry number one. Our second entry out of the reversal of the LPS. 1246 01:37:31,300 --> 01:37:33,460 So that's entry number two. 1247 01:37:33,860 --> 01:37:38,800 We don't necessarily want to enter somewhere here. Why? Because we don't 1248 01:37:38,800 --> 01:37:45,780 the next reaction is going to be such that would take us out and hit 1249 01:37:45,780 --> 01:37:50,580 our stop loss. So we would just patiently wait until they're backing up. 1250 01:37:51,120 --> 01:37:56,200 after the sign of strength forms, and we would enter somewhere here. So this 1251 01:37:56,200 --> 01:38:02,020 would be our third point of entry. So we would be entering here, here, and then 1252 01:38:02,020 --> 01:38:06,800 here. And prior to that, we entered here, and we exited here, and here. 1253 01:38:10,060 --> 01:38:13,660 All right, let's see some questions. 1254 01:38:17,020 --> 01:38:18,900 Could you start back? 1255 01:38:20,780 --> 01:38:23,360 in July with buying climax. 1256 01:38:23,860 --> 01:38:30,140 Philip, are we discussing the same trading range? It's probably somewhere 1257 01:38:30,280 --> 01:38:35,220 right? So could we start back with July with buying climax? Okay, yeah, buying 1258 01:38:35,220 --> 01:38:36,220 climax. 1259 01:38:37,780 --> 01:38:43,660 So we have a small distribution range that produces the cause 1260 01:38:43,660 --> 01:38:45,320 for this low. 1261 01:38:45,960 --> 01:38:48,620 This low here is a trading range by itself. 1262 01:38:48,860 --> 01:38:54,040 It starts here. So here is selling climax, automatic reaction, secondary 1263 01:38:54,040 --> 01:39:00,160 somewhere here, which is hidden, sign of weakness in phase B, upthrust in phase 1264 01:39:00,160 --> 01:39:01,160 C, 1265 01:39:01,320 --> 01:39:05,240 everything in between is B, and then a move to the downside. 1266 01:39:06,140 --> 01:39:11,220 Selling climax, automatic reaction, secondary test, phase A, and so on and 1267 01:39:11,220 --> 01:39:12,220 forth. 1268 01:39:13,530 --> 01:39:17,750 We didn't go through this structure. We just went into this structure because 1269 01:39:17,750 --> 01:39:20,270 that was the assignment. But here it is. 1270 01:39:21,210 --> 01:39:22,730 All right, next question. 1271 01:39:25,230 --> 01:39:31,190 Big volume on a spring is bullish or bearish indicator or none? 1272 01:39:31,790 --> 01:39:37,410 So I'm still thinking that this is the case. Actually, in both cases, the 1273 01:39:37,410 --> 01:39:38,410 significantly increases. 1274 01:39:38,750 --> 01:39:41,830 Now, we will study this in more detail. 1275 01:39:42,520 --> 01:39:49,380 literally like in a couple of sessions but you know it's so 1276 01:39:49,380 --> 01:39:53,420 funny how on the same slide we have two different variations the first variation 1277 01:39:53,420 --> 01:40:00,080 is kind of like a more normal volume signature where we have an increase in 1278 01:40:00,080 --> 01:40:06,700 of the supply in phase a and then we have um a decrease 1279 01:40:06,700 --> 01:40:11,140 of the supply into phase b and then a local 1280 01:40:12,110 --> 01:40:18,950 increase of the supply from phase B to C, and long -term 1281 01:40:18,950 --> 01:40:25,730 decrease of the supply from phase A to C, and 1282 01:40:25,730 --> 01:40:27,330 here from B to C. 1283 01:40:30,410 --> 01:40:36,770 In the first instance, the volume signature is different. We see that from 1284 01:40:36,770 --> 01:40:41,700 A going into phase C, we actually have an increase in the supply signature. 1285 01:40:42,780 --> 01:40:47,220 And in both cases, we would be thinking about what? We would be thinking about 1286 01:40:47,220 --> 01:40:53,200 the result. What is the result of this whole thing? If the supply increases, do 1287 01:40:53,200 --> 01:40:58,280 we produce a significant commitment to the downside? And we see that there are 1288 01:40:58,280 --> 01:41:04,600 attempts to commit, but there is no actual commitment below the support 1289 01:41:05,000 --> 01:41:06,200 The same here. 1290 01:41:07,370 --> 01:41:14,330 There is an attempt to commit, but yet it doesn't. It only springs below the 1291 01:41:14,330 --> 01:41:16,650 lows in phase B. 1292 01:41:19,230 --> 01:41:25,550 So in both cases, result is very crucial for us to identify, and then volume 1293 01:41:25,550 --> 01:41:30,850 acts more as a confirmation of institutional presence at this spot. 1294 01:41:31,110 --> 01:41:36,860 And the way how we would be thinking about institutional presence is While 1295 01:41:36,860 --> 01:41:40,160 are here, so what is happening on this increased volume signature? 1296 01:41:40,460 --> 01:41:46,100 Well, the price tries to go down to the downside and then recovers. Tries to go 1297 01:41:46,100 --> 01:41:49,860 down and then recovers. So, therefore, that volume signature suggests 1298 01:41:49,860 --> 01:41:51,480 participation of institutions. 1299 01:41:53,420 --> 01:41:56,620 And what do they do? They abide at that point. 1300 01:41:56,860 --> 01:41:59,020 So, therefore, they abide to the upside. 1301 01:42:00,220 --> 01:42:01,380 Good questions today. 1302 01:42:01,640 --> 01:42:03,580 I wish I would feel better a little bit. 1303 01:42:04,529 --> 01:42:08,270 And maybe we could just like even go into more explanation of this. 1304 01:42:15,130 --> 01:42:16,130 Okay. 1305 01:42:16,390 --> 01:42:18,950 Is the first trillion range an accumulation? 1306 01:42:19,930 --> 01:42:26,930 Well, again, you have to think about the context of everything what 1307 01:42:26,930 --> 01:42:27,930 is happening here. 1308 01:42:28,430 --> 01:42:30,710 So this acts as a reaccumulation. 1309 01:42:31,250 --> 01:42:33,730 This acts as a reaccumulation as well. 1310 01:42:34,190 --> 01:42:37,110 The definition of the reaccumulation, move to the upside. 1311 01:42:38,150 --> 01:42:40,190 Consolidation, move to the upside. 1312 01:42:41,190 --> 01:42:45,150 Consolidation, move to the upside. So both are reaccumulation ranges. 1313 01:42:47,030 --> 01:42:53,130 Is August 23rd of 1999 also a sign of strength? 1314 01:42:54,160 --> 01:42:58,420 this rally right here. Well, we could kind of think that, yes, there is 1315 01:42:58,420 --> 01:43:01,900 definitely like this major sign of strength commitment to the upside. 1316 01:43:02,240 --> 01:43:07,060 But I probably would be just thinking that, you know, what kind of value it 1317 01:43:07,060 --> 01:43:07,839 gives us. 1318 01:43:07,840 --> 01:43:08,920 Probably none. 1319 01:43:09,880 --> 01:43:16,300 The fact that the trading range, the second trading range just rests above 1320 01:43:16,300 --> 01:43:20,220 the buying climax here suggests 1321 01:43:21,200 --> 01:43:23,380 Strength suggests bias to the upside. 1322 01:43:24,080 --> 01:43:28,880 But I wouldn't be labeling this whole move as a major sign of strength. 1323 01:43:29,380 --> 01:43:35,960 I would probably be thinking more about this area right here as a sign of 1324 01:43:35,960 --> 01:43:40,240 strength in the backing up action. But I kind of see the logic of why you would 1325 01:43:40,240 --> 01:43:41,240 think so. 1326 01:43:41,800 --> 01:43:42,800 All right, great. 1327 01:43:44,220 --> 01:43:47,400 So here is my labeling here. You could go through this. 1328 01:43:48,560 --> 01:43:50,200 as you do your homework. 1329 01:43:53,580 --> 01:43:58,120 Let's talk about shakeouts and sprint -type actions. 1330 01:43:58,500 --> 01:44:03,600 So we've discussed sprints, and I mentioned to you guys that Wyckoff 1331 01:44:03,600 --> 01:44:08,100 did not have a definition of a sprint. What he had is the definition of a 1332 01:44:08,100 --> 01:44:10,020 shakeout or a terminal shakeout. 1333 01:44:11,820 --> 01:44:16,680 And a definition of a shakeout is going to be 1334 01:44:17,530 --> 01:44:21,330 basically a difference between a shakeout and a spring. 1335 01:44:22,550 --> 01:44:29,510 So we said that the spring is either an attempt or a temporary commitment below 1336 01:44:29,510 --> 01:44:30,550 the support level. 1337 01:44:31,130 --> 01:44:33,550 Shakeout is much more than that. 1338 01:44:33,890 --> 01:44:38,810 And I want you just to, on a very simplistic level, to think about the 1339 01:44:38,810 --> 01:44:41,450 is it's like a very, very deep spring. 1340 01:44:42,370 --> 01:44:46,790 So it's a pronounced price commitment below levels of the support. 1341 01:44:47,360 --> 01:44:50,920 Look at how many closes we have below here. 1342 01:44:51,700 --> 01:44:52,760 Quite a few. 1343 01:44:53,980 --> 01:44:58,040 And distance -wise, it traveled. 1344 01:45:00,140 --> 01:45:06,160 So we also would like to see a much better volume signature here, so 1345 01:45:06,160 --> 01:45:08,020 more of the increase. 1346 01:45:08,400 --> 01:45:12,420 And the reason why the volume signature here is not that significant is just 1347 01:45:12,420 --> 01:45:14,980 because it's actually a down -floating range. 1348 01:45:15,500 --> 01:45:20,200 And I've used this example in the previous slide. So it acts actually more 1349 01:45:20,200 --> 01:45:25,660 spring in the downsloping range than a shakeout. But in the horizontal range, 1350 01:45:25,920 --> 01:45:31,120 you definitely are going to recognize this as a shakeout. And this would be a 1351 01:45:31,120 --> 01:45:35,520 more conventional way of thinking about this concept and specifically thinking 1352 01:45:35,520 --> 01:45:37,660 about this training range formation. 1353 01:45:44,040 --> 01:45:48,720 What's kind of like the confirmation or the tactics for the shakeout? 1354 01:45:48,980 --> 01:45:55,800 Well, with the shakeout as well as spring number two, our 1355 01:45:55,800 --> 01:45:59,480 points of entry are always going to be on the test. 1356 01:46:00,040 --> 01:46:01,700 Think about this for a second. 1357 01:46:01,920 --> 01:46:06,300 Why do we need the test for spring number two and the shakeout? 1358 01:46:06,800 --> 01:46:10,840 Well, because both are going to be associated with the increased supply 1359 01:46:10,840 --> 01:46:11,840 signature. 1360 01:46:12,720 --> 01:46:17,900 And if supply is increasing, we always want to have some kind of test. 1361 01:46:19,120 --> 01:46:24,680 And this test always should come as a high or low and on the diminished supply 1362 01:46:24,680 --> 01:46:28,400 signature. That way it would be a successful test. 1363 01:46:33,860 --> 01:46:35,360 So where is that test? 1364 01:46:35,760 --> 01:46:40,600 Well, it's a little bit hidden right here behind these bars. 1365 01:46:41,280 --> 01:46:46,520 And actually supply does come in again and being observed at the same time. So 1366 01:46:46,520 --> 01:46:49,060 this acts actually as a very good sign. 1367 01:46:49,280 --> 01:46:51,360 And we understand why this happens. 1368 01:46:51,580 --> 01:46:53,580 It just happens before the earnings catalyst. 1369 01:46:57,100 --> 01:47:02,920 So that's why some volume signature comes, supply comes, there is a lot of 1370 01:47:02,920 --> 01:47:06,700 before the earnings, and then, you know, the price jumps. 1371 01:47:07,520 --> 01:47:09,200 Okay, let's talk about... 1372 01:47:09,900 --> 01:47:11,380 screen type action. 1373 01:47:12,340 --> 01:47:17,800 So what is the screen type action? So sometimes I would say, oh, look at this 1374 01:47:17,800 --> 01:47:24,020 upthrust action, right? So in the reaccumulation, an attempt to commit to 1375 01:47:24,020 --> 01:47:28,780 offsite with the subsequent failure is going to be labeled as an upthrust 1376 01:47:28,780 --> 01:47:29,780 action. 1377 01:47:31,020 --> 01:47:37,520 So it looks like an upthrust, but in the reaccumulation, We know that we usually 1378 01:47:37,520 --> 01:47:40,980 don't use upthrust as a definition, but it's there. 1379 01:47:41,420 --> 01:47:47,100 It looks like an upthrust. It acts like an upthrust. It is an upthrust only in 1380 01:47:47,100 --> 01:47:51,440 the accumulation, so therefore we will say upthrust action. It acts like an 1381 01:47:51,440 --> 01:47:52,440 upthrust. 1382 01:47:52,680 --> 01:47:54,100 The same with the spring. 1383 01:47:54,760 --> 01:48:01,480 We could see in the distributional structure that in some instances a sign 1384 01:48:01,480 --> 01:48:04,160 weakness could be 1385 01:48:04,929 --> 01:48:06,290 interpreted as a sprint. 1386 01:48:06,570 --> 01:48:12,150 It would have the same characteristics where supply is diminishing going into 1387 01:48:12,150 --> 01:48:18,150 the sprint, where the commitment below the support is going to be just 1388 01:48:18,150 --> 01:48:24,950 and just so perfect how it just sprints like this and then came back the 1389 01:48:24,950 --> 01:48:26,330 next day with the gap up. 1390 01:48:27,410 --> 01:48:34,280 So educators like Gary Fuller, David Wise, uh gary dayton they would be 1391 01:48:34,280 --> 01:48:40,620 talking about this as a spring and rightfully so it it is a spring it acts 1392 01:48:40,620 --> 01:48:46,700 spring but to be more accurate let's just uh define it as a spring type 1393 01:48:46,700 --> 01:48:52,200 just because we know what has happened next uh the price went up and then went 1394 01:48:52,200 --> 01:48:58,740 down so we're seeing that this is not an accumulation or reaccumulation and that 1395 01:48:58,740 --> 01:49:04,800 this is a distribution and once everything unfolded we know that um 1396 01:49:04,800 --> 01:49:11,600 this type of action before phase c is going to be a sign of weakness in phase 1397 01:49:11,600 --> 01:49:18,560 so and therefore we would just look at this and we would call it a spring 1398 01:49:18,560 --> 01:49:25,340 type action which is actually a sign of weakness all right 1399 01:49:25,340 --> 01:49:29,720 let's go to the next 1400 01:49:31,799 --> 01:49:36,700 By the way, were there any other questions on the web? 1401 01:49:37,440 --> 01:49:39,580 No, no, we went through this. Okay, great. 1402 01:49:44,180 --> 01:49:46,220 Let's talk about distribution. 1403 01:49:47,980 --> 01:49:54,580 Let's talk about events and distinction. So we went through accumulation, 1404 01:49:54,680 --> 01:49:56,480 the definition of accumulation. 1405 01:49:56,780 --> 01:49:59,580 Actually, guys, let me take, like, 1406 01:50:00,360 --> 01:50:04,760 a one -minute break here at this point, and I'll be back in a second. Hold on a 1407 01:50:04,760 --> 01:50:06,420 second before we go into this new material. 1408 01:51:54,060 --> 01:51:55,060 All right. 1409 01:51:58,220 --> 01:51:59,220 I'm back. 1410 01:52:05,520 --> 01:52:09,000 So let's talk to our organization about a distribution. 1411 01:52:10,320 --> 01:52:15,280 So what is happening in the distribution? How does sentiment change 1412 01:52:15,280 --> 01:52:21,340 whole trading range? What do institutional hands and weak hands are 1413 01:52:21,740 --> 01:52:23,180 How do they behave? 1414 01:52:24,080 --> 01:52:28,400 Well, it's all being, of course, driven by institutional activity. 1415 01:52:29,100 --> 01:52:35,000 So we are in the uptrend, and then suddenly we reach some kind of point of 1416 01:52:35,000 --> 01:52:36,000 for them. 1417 01:52:36,440 --> 01:52:41,360 And in some instances, this value is going to be defined also as an 1418 01:52:41,360 --> 01:52:46,000 condition. You're going to have some overthrows in this area in the major 1419 01:52:46,000 --> 01:52:51,160 uptrend. And this is where this type of condition creates a 1420 01:52:51,160 --> 01:52:57,500 very... bullish uh weak hands sentiment 1421 01:52:57,500 --> 01:53:04,020 and with this very bullish um we can 1422 01:53:04,020 --> 01:53:10,740 sentiment that produces liquidity 1423 01:53:10,740 --> 01:53:16,700 availability which 1424 01:53:16,700 --> 01:53:19,900 basically 1425 01:53:20,970 --> 01:53:26,510 suggest that institutions could sell into 1426 01:53:26,510 --> 01:53:30,970 weak hands' strength. 1427 01:53:33,070 --> 01:53:37,250 And in a lot of cases, that selling starts on the way up. 1428 01:53:37,590 --> 01:53:44,130 And you could sometimes see how the price goes up, stops, goes up, stops, 1429 01:53:44,130 --> 01:53:47,370 up, stops, and then produces a big change of character. 1430 01:53:48,150 --> 01:53:53,910 So usually these spots are going to be associated with the tremendous increase 1431 01:53:53,910 --> 01:53:54,910 in the supply. 1432 01:53:55,070 --> 01:54:01,930 But yet because this is just initial selling, it's not going 1433 01:54:01,930 --> 01:54:06,970 to produce a big downward result. 1434 01:54:07,310 --> 01:54:12,950 And therefore it's hidden from us like that. And only a trained eye could see 1435 01:54:12,950 --> 01:54:17,350 that. And we'll definitely go through that, you know, especially in the second 1436 01:54:17,350 --> 01:54:21,970 month when we will be discussing, you know, supply signature, demand 1437 01:54:22,530 --> 01:54:23,810 So we'll go through that. 1438 01:54:24,910 --> 01:54:30,870 But this is the initial place where institutions are going to unload their 1439 01:54:30,870 --> 01:54:34,750 position or close out, you know, some of it, scale out. 1440 01:54:35,940 --> 01:54:39,740 And this area right here will be defined as a buying climax. 1441 01:54:40,080 --> 01:54:43,400 It doesn't necessarily have to be like a climactic run. 1442 01:54:43,620 --> 01:54:47,820 It could be even a trading range. There are so many ways of how buying climax 1443 01:54:47,820 --> 01:54:48,820 could unfold. 1444 01:54:49,960 --> 01:54:54,440 But buying climax is going to be associated with the first attempts by 1445 01:54:54,440 --> 01:54:59,760 institutions to sell their position, to distribute to the strength of weak 1446 01:54:59,760 --> 01:55:03,700 hands. And this is where weak hands are going to be extremely excited. 1447 01:55:04,670 --> 01:55:10,630 Weekends are going to be correct on the buys and correct on their timing in the 1448 01:55:10,630 --> 01:55:15,190 last portion of the uptrend. This is where they're going to enjoy all of the 1449 01:55:15,190 --> 01:55:16,810 profits to the upside. 1450 01:55:18,050 --> 01:55:24,090 You hear usually a lot of stories from weekends where they're saying, like, I 1451 01:55:24,090 --> 01:55:25,090 made so much money. 1452 01:55:26,010 --> 01:55:31,730 And that usually happens on the climactic run. Think about 2017. 1453 01:55:32,880 --> 01:55:39,800 The last two quarters from summer into the junior year of 1454 01:55:39,800 --> 01:55:45,220 2018. That was the market where we had that climactic run. 1455 01:55:45,480 --> 01:55:52,360 And this is where we heard a lot of the great stories about how big 1456 01:55:52,360 --> 01:55:54,520 money were made on the way up. 1457 01:55:55,220 --> 01:55:57,140 Then comes the change of character. 1458 01:55:57,800 --> 01:56:01,700 That change of character is going to be very somewhat... 1459 01:56:02,060 --> 01:56:08,800 sudden because here institutions are selling as well and 1460 01:56:08,800 --> 01:56:15,620 now instead of selling and no downward 1461 01:56:15,620 --> 01:56:21,900 result in this case on the change of character they will be selling 1462 01:56:21,900 --> 01:56:28,340 and there will be an increase in the downward result for the first time 1463 01:56:28,340 --> 01:56:33,620 and that's what is going to define a change of character. 1464 01:56:34,000 --> 01:56:40,920 So behavior has changed for the institutions. And not only that, but the 1465 01:56:40,920 --> 01:56:46,100 follows now that behavior in the direction of the institutional force. 1466 01:56:46,420 --> 01:56:50,800 And that's what produces that change of character. A change of character low is 1467 01:56:50,800 --> 01:56:53,220 going to be defined as an automatic reaction. 1468 01:56:53,580 --> 01:56:58,400 And that would define the boundary of the trading range. 1469 01:56:59,660 --> 01:57:05,580 If anything, this is just such a great concept, I thought, that Wyckoff has 1470 01:57:05,580 --> 01:57:06,580 up with. 1471 01:57:07,320 --> 01:57:08,600 A trading race. 1472 01:57:09,080 --> 01:57:15,560 Future price action is going to be condensed between the 1473 01:57:15,560 --> 01:57:20,160 boundaries of the resistance and the support. 1474 01:57:20,620 --> 01:57:26,880 This is where the majority of the time the price will be, between these two 1475 01:57:26,880 --> 01:57:27,880 lines. 1476 01:57:29,130 --> 01:57:35,310 Once we define the boundary of the trading range, the next action for us is 1477 01:57:35,310 --> 01:57:38,610 retest, a secondary test. Now, think about this. 1478 01:57:39,350 --> 01:57:44,310 At this point of time, at the automatic reaction, there is some kind of short 1479 01:57:44,310 --> 01:57:49,710 -term value proposition because the price went down. 1480 01:57:59,790 --> 01:58:03,370 As the price goes down, there is some short -term value. 1481 01:58:03,630 --> 01:58:04,850 Who's going to take this? 1482 01:58:05,510 --> 01:58:06,790 Who is the buyer here? 1483 01:58:10,950 --> 01:58:17,410 Well, institutions have been selling into the strength of 1484 01:58:17,410 --> 01:58:21,570 weak hands. They've been selling on the change of character as well. 1485 01:58:21,810 --> 01:58:23,230 So would they be buyers? 1486 01:58:23,590 --> 01:58:29,090 Now, we were taught that you know, institutions might actually be buyers at 1487 01:58:29,090 --> 01:58:30,090 spot. 1488 01:58:30,770 --> 01:58:35,910 I doubt that strong -hand institutions would be buyers at this spot. 1489 01:58:36,130 --> 01:58:37,250 Why would they be? 1490 01:58:37,990 --> 01:58:43,370 There is no logic in this whatsoever that they would be buyers here. 1491 01:58:43,750 --> 01:58:48,010 Only institutions that are weak hands, that are seeing some kind of value for 1492 01:58:48,010 --> 01:58:49,570 them, they could be buyers. 1493 01:58:50,640 --> 01:58:54,920 And if it's a reaccumulation zone, then they would, you know, strong 1494 01:58:54,920 --> 01:58:57,360 institutional hands would be biased as well. 1495 01:58:58,300 --> 01:59:05,300 But I don't see how weak 1496 01:59:05,300 --> 01:59:10,980 hands, institutional hands would be biased, I'm sorry, would be, strong 1497 01:59:10,980 --> 01:59:15,660 institutional hands would be biased on the change of character law in the 1498 01:59:15,660 --> 01:59:16,660 distributional formation. 1499 01:59:17,260 --> 01:59:21,920 Their goal and intention at this point is just to scale out, to sell. 1500 01:59:22,220 --> 01:59:28,240 So no buying by strong hands. So weak hands are going to be buyers here. 1501 01:59:34,000 --> 01:59:39,580 And that's what's going to lead to this next weak rally, which is going to be a 1502 01:59:39,580 --> 01:59:40,580 secondary test. 1503 01:59:41,600 --> 01:59:43,800 And that would conclude phase A. 1504 01:59:44,120 --> 01:59:50,480 The intention behind phase A is the same in distribution as is in the 1505 01:59:50,480 --> 01:59:51,480 accumulation. 1506 01:59:52,140 --> 01:59:59,020 It's to stop. To stop what? To stop the previous move from going further up. So 1507 01:59:59,020 --> 02:00:00,480 we're stopping an uptrend. 1508 02:00:00,760 --> 02:00:05,340 And all of the elements, including the preliminary supply, where the first 1509 02:00:05,340 --> 02:00:11,760 selling might come, buying climates, automatic reaction, and secondary tasks 1510 02:00:11,760 --> 02:00:12,880 going to be a part of phase A. 1511 02:00:17,640 --> 02:00:22,900 As weak hands are buying on the way up, imagine what happens to them on the next 1512 02:00:22,900 --> 02:00:23,900 reaction. 1513 02:00:24,920 --> 02:00:30,260 They're basically saying, this is probably a wrong position for me to be 1514 02:00:31,580 --> 02:00:35,740 And it's going to get them out of this position, maybe on the sign of weakness, 1515 02:00:36,040 --> 02:00:39,700 maybe on the secondary test just because there was a reaction and they were 1516 02:00:39,700 --> 02:00:41,560 expecting more of the move to the upside. 1517 02:00:41,980 --> 02:00:46,600 So they would get out of this position and as they get out, 1518 02:00:49,989 --> 02:00:55,270 that could produce that sign of weakness that, again, could produce some kind of 1519 02:00:55,270 --> 02:00:56,270 short -term value. 1520 02:00:56,450 --> 02:01:01,190 The short -term value could finally be picked up by some of the institutions 1521 02:01:01,190 --> 02:01:05,890 that are going to be, again, weak hands at this point of time. 1522 02:01:06,250 --> 02:01:11,770 And that absorption of the supply at this low is going to push into the next 1523 02:01:11,770 --> 02:01:18,330 high. And as weak hands, like public weak hands are not participating in this 1524 02:01:18,330 --> 02:01:21,610 rally, they are regretting that they did not participate. 1525 02:01:22,030 --> 02:01:27,730 So what do they do? On the next reaction, they are coming in here and 1526 02:01:27,730 --> 02:01:30,070 initiating the position. 1527 02:01:30,390 --> 02:01:32,130 So weak hands prime. 1528 02:01:35,170 --> 02:01:41,250 And at this point, strong hands such as selling, selling, selling, selling. 1529 02:01:42,380 --> 02:01:46,780 And they try to sell at the upper boundary of the range. 1530 02:01:47,020 --> 02:01:52,440 If they were accumulating the stock, the shares, in the lower boundary during 1531 02:01:52,440 --> 02:01:58,600 accumulation, in the distribution, they will always try to be effective with 1532 02:01:58,600 --> 02:02:05,540 their selling and to sell at the most optimal price, meaning that that price 1533 02:02:05,540 --> 02:02:10,680 going to be, sell price is going to be in the upper part of the trading range. 1534 02:02:11,690 --> 02:02:18,530 And, of course, depending on how the market reacts to that selling. So if the 1535 02:02:18,530 --> 02:02:24,010 market still wants the shares, that selling in the upper part of the trading 1536 02:02:24,010 --> 02:02:26,210 range is very easy for institutions. 1537 02:02:26,590 --> 02:02:33,530 But if the weak hands are less willing to buy the 1538 02:02:33,530 --> 02:02:40,230 stock, then most likely it's going to be much harder for institutions to 1539 02:02:40,230 --> 02:02:45,300 sell. in the upper part of the trading range. And they would have to push the 1540 02:02:45,300 --> 02:02:51,100 price lower. So sometimes weaker structures are going to have structures 1541 02:02:51,100 --> 02:02:55,540 deteriorating structures with the lower highs and lower lows. 1542 02:02:55,960 --> 02:03:01,540 It's just institutions can't really sell everything right away. So they sell and 1543 02:03:01,540 --> 02:03:04,500 then they allow the price to go up. Then they sell. 1544 02:03:05,100 --> 02:03:10,180 The price goes below the low, creates a low, low. So they know that, you know, 1545 02:03:10,180 --> 02:03:14,460 whatever supply they provided them to the market, it tanks the market. So they 1546 02:03:14,460 --> 02:03:16,420 need to be careful as to how they sell. 1547 02:03:16,680 --> 02:03:21,160 So next time the rally goes up, they're trying to sell maybe less. And then on 1548 02:03:21,160 --> 02:03:26,040 the way out, they just get through it, their position, and just sell 1549 02:03:26,240 --> 02:03:27,860 And that produces the gaps. 1550 02:03:28,500 --> 02:03:30,840 On the way out, you know, a big spread. 1551 02:03:32,100 --> 02:03:34,000 Well, if the weekends... 1552 02:03:34,400 --> 02:03:36,640 got into this position again. 1553 02:03:36,860 --> 02:03:39,280 So this is the second time when they bought. 1554 02:03:44,200 --> 02:03:49,540 And they're really enjoying the upthrust because upthrust is going to have a lot 1555 02:03:49,540 --> 02:03:51,140 of characteristics of a sign of strength. 1556 02:03:51,820 --> 02:03:56,100 This is where the spread might be increasing to the upside. 1557 02:03:56,340 --> 02:04:00,880 There might be increasing volume as the rally unfolds. And then as the price 1558 02:04:00,880 --> 02:04:03,040 commits to the new level, this is the... 1559 02:04:03,280 --> 02:04:08,160 becomes the second point of excitement for weak hands. 1560 02:04:10,500 --> 02:04:13,300 What is the first point of excitement? 1561 02:04:13,520 --> 02:04:16,320 Well, we said that it was a climactic wrap. 1562 02:04:20,560 --> 02:04:26,140 These are the two spots where weak hands are going to be excited about their 1563 02:04:26,140 --> 02:04:30,980 position, so therefore they're going to provide more liquidity to strong hands, 1564 02:04:31,140 --> 02:04:32,200 institutional hands. 1565 02:04:32,650 --> 02:04:33,650 to sell into. 1566 02:04:33,770 --> 02:04:40,110 So we often see that in this area, we're going to see either one bar or several 1567 02:04:40,110 --> 02:04:45,870 bars with the increased volume signature that suggests the presence of supply. 1568 02:04:46,950 --> 02:04:53,510 And as it fails, this is the first time where weekends are going to say, I'm not 1569 02:04:53,510 --> 02:04:54,510 selling. 1570 02:04:57,230 --> 02:05:00,190 Why? Why are they not selling at this point? 1571 02:05:00,390 --> 02:05:01,630 Well, because... 1572 02:05:02,280 --> 02:05:05,760 Finally, they realize that they have to be disciplined. 1573 02:05:06,280 --> 02:05:10,800 But unfortunately, they get disciplined at the wrong time. 1574 02:05:11,120 --> 02:05:18,120 And this whole weak hands, strong hands, you know, weak hands usually defined 1575 02:05:18,120 --> 02:05:21,740 not just by the incorrect bias. 1576 02:05:22,140 --> 02:05:27,020 Their actions are defined by incorrect timing as well. 1577 02:05:27,550 --> 02:05:32,170 And that's kind of like the case here. So they want to be disciplined and they 1578 02:05:32,170 --> 02:05:38,990 say, every time I entered this position, the price went down 1579 02:05:38,990 --> 02:05:40,370 and then the price went up. 1580 02:05:40,590 --> 02:05:46,910 So now that the price goes down, I'm not going to sell this position because I 1581 02:05:46,910 --> 02:05:49,690 know that the price will go up again and it will rebound. 1582 02:05:50,570 --> 02:05:52,970 And it would rebound in the reaccumulation. 1583 02:05:53,710 --> 02:05:58,010 And unfortunately, if it happens to them in the reaccumulation, imagine the 1584 02:05:58,010 --> 02:06:00,950 emotional confirmation that they get from that rebound. 1585 02:06:01,590 --> 02:06:05,810 The rebound is basically just saying, yeah, you should be doing this all the 1586 02:06:05,810 --> 02:06:08,810 time. And that's how they would be functioning. 1587 02:06:10,950 --> 02:06:17,290 So at this point of time, they do not give up on their position, whereas 1588 02:06:17,290 --> 02:06:20,350 institutions are selling into that strength. 1589 02:06:21,290 --> 02:06:23,210 There is really not a lot of... 1590 02:06:23,580 --> 02:06:30,360 strength just because not a lot of bias on the last point of supply rally. 1591 02:06:34,200 --> 02:06:39,140 And the stock or the shares are in weak hands. 1592 02:06:47,050 --> 02:06:52,510 Therefore, this rally is going to be mostly flat or it's just going to 1593 02:06:52,510 --> 02:06:56,950 some kind of momentum to the upside and then it's just going to come down and 1594 02:06:56,950 --> 02:06:57,950 then tank. 1595 02:06:58,070 --> 02:07:00,270 Imagine what we can do next. 1596 02:07:00,610 --> 02:07:06,550 As they hold on to their position and the price goes and breaks below the 1597 02:07:06,550 --> 02:07:08,810 support, what do you think is going to happen here? 1598 02:07:09,490 --> 02:07:15,410 Well, at this point of time, there is too much of the emotional pain. 1599 02:07:17,710 --> 02:07:22,050 that weak hands are going to have. And by the way, again, weak hands, not just 1600 02:07:22,050 --> 02:07:27,370 public, institutions plus public 1601 02:07:27,370 --> 02:07:33,150 and institutions 1602 02:07:33,150 --> 02:07:36,110 on the wrong side of the trade. 1603 02:07:39,490 --> 02:07:45,310 And when they see that the price goes down, they just basically emotionally 1604 02:07:45,310 --> 02:07:51,260 capitulate and they say, get me out at any price that's what produces this big 1605 02:07:51,260 --> 02:07:56,620 move to the downside usually once the price comes out of the distributional 1606 02:07:56,620 --> 02:08:02,960 formation we could see a lot of gaps to the downside that are significant gaps 1607 02:08:02,960 --> 02:08:08,480 we could see big spread increase to the downside that are going to be extremely 1608 02:08:08,480 --> 02:08:15,420 big and extremely significant spreads to the downside and that's where we 1609 02:08:15,420 --> 02:08:16,420 know that 1610 02:08:17,550 --> 02:08:21,990 There is a capitulation that is happening on the way down. 1611 02:08:23,310 --> 02:08:24,310 All right. 1612 02:08:24,370 --> 02:08:30,670 As in the accumulation, we would be using 1613 02:08:30,670 --> 02:08:33,910 Y -cap events to define phases. 1614 02:08:34,630 --> 02:08:40,130 We've talked about phase A and all of the events there. And it's kind of like 1615 02:08:40,130 --> 02:08:42,190 mirror image of the accumulation. 1616 02:08:42,920 --> 02:08:47,820 So we have a preliminary supply instead of preliminary support, buying climax 1617 02:08:47,820 --> 02:08:52,940 instead of selling climax, automatic reaction instead of automatic rally, and 1618 02:08:52,940 --> 02:08:54,760 then secondary test is going to be the same. 1619 02:08:55,460 --> 02:08:57,120 Then the labeling changes. 1620 02:08:58,780 --> 02:09:04,140 We still would be thinking phase B as the test of the support and the 1621 02:09:04,140 --> 02:09:05,140 resistance. 1622 02:09:09,920 --> 02:09:14,780 test that the support is a low low then we're going to label it a secondary test 1623 02:09:14,780 --> 02:09:20,840 as a sign of weakness in phase b high low is going to be just a secondary test 1624 02:09:20,840 --> 02:09:26,940 and then excuse me a lower high 1625 02:09:26,940 --> 02:09:33,260 in phase b is going to be labeled as an attempt to up thrust 1626 02:09:33,260 --> 02:09:40,060 and um A higher high is 1627 02:09:40,060 --> 02:09:41,660 going to be an upthrust. 1628 02:09:43,080 --> 02:09:46,920 So these are the label and definitions in phase B. 1629 02:09:47,140 --> 02:09:53,820 And then phase C is going to be our final test 1630 02:09:53,820 --> 02:09:59,200 of the demand, right? So in accumulation, final test of the supply. 1631 02:09:59,440 --> 02:10:02,760 Here, a final test of the demand in the distribution. 1632 02:10:03,640 --> 02:10:10,070 And it's also going to have either a higher high, which will be labeled as an 1633 02:10:10,070 --> 02:10:11,790 upthrust after distribution. 1634 02:10:12,050 --> 02:10:13,370 Why after distribution? 1635 02:10:13,590 --> 02:10:19,010 Because if this is a distribution, the thought here in the methodology was that 1636 02:10:19,010 --> 02:10:24,430 distribution has already happened by that time. By the time the upthrust 1637 02:10:24,430 --> 02:10:26,430 in phase B, distribution is done. 1638 02:10:27,110 --> 02:10:30,030 This is, again, not necessarily correct. 1639 02:10:31,050 --> 02:10:36,990 And the method requires a lot of corrections and adjustments, and this is 1640 02:10:36,990 --> 02:10:42,510 I'm... kind of trying to do with this course. It's just to put everything on 1641 02:10:42,510 --> 02:10:45,570 the correct path. 1642 02:10:47,810 --> 02:10:49,110 So, distribution 1643 02:10:49,110 --> 02:11:03,570 still 1644 02:11:03,570 --> 02:11:05,290 could be happening. 1645 02:11:06,030 --> 02:11:11,610 on the way down, even in phase D. There might be some selling on the way down. 1646 02:11:12,350 --> 02:11:15,890 Distribution could happen even on the way down in phase E. 1647 02:11:16,670 --> 02:11:19,970 Institutions can still be in the mode of selling. 1648 02:11:21,770 --> 02:11:28,330 So, to me, this is definitionally not necessarily the best semantic after 1649 02:11:28,330 --> 02:11:29,330 distribution. 1650 02:11:29,490 --> 02:11:33,810 I would say that maybe this is a distributional upthrust. 1651 02:11:34,110 --> 02:11:38,270 That's what I would... probably say like DUT, something like that. 1652 02:11:40,450 --> 02:11:47,290 Up for us after distribution could be also be tied with tests or multiple 1653 02:11:47,290 --> 02:11:50,570 tests that come and, you know, test that attempt to go up. 1654 02:11:52,930 --> 02:11:59,930 And then a lower high in phase C will be labeled as a last point of supply. 1655 02:12:00,970 --> 02:12:04,070 And then we are experiencing a change of character. 1656 02:12:04,590 --> 02:12:08,950 The next reaction is going to be the largest reaction in the trading range, 1657 02:12:09,110 --> 02:12:14,530 which defines that the behavior has changed, and therefore a change of 1658 02:12:14,530 --> 02:12:15,449 is underway. 1659 02:12:15,450 --> 02:12:20,350 The change of character is going to be confirmed by the last point of supply 1660 02:12:20,350 --> 02:12:26,610 rally, which usually is going to be a week. 1661 02:12:31,800 --> 02:12:36,080 After this rally, this is where the capitulation is going to happen as the 1662 02:12:36,080 --> 02:12:37,500 commits to the downside. 1663 02:12:38,420 --> 02:12:45,020 Intentions behind phases in distribution are the same as in the accumulation. 1664 02:12:45,480 --> 02:12:51,840 Phase A, as I mentioned, is a stopping action of the uptrend. Phase B is a 1665 02:12:51,840 --> 02:12:58,220 cost building, and this phase defines the relationship between supply and 1666 02:12:58,220 --> 02:13:04,700 demand. Phase C is the final test of the demand at the resistance level. 1667 02:13:05,360 --> 02:13:11,520 Phase D is the initial markdown within the trading range, whereas phase E is 1668 02:13:11,520 --> 02:13:14,400 going to be the markdown outside of the trading range. 1669 02:13:14,920 --> 02:13:21,300 As usual, I'm giving you the definitions and the characteristics of all of these 1670 02:13:21,300 --> 02:13:24,000 Wyckoff events in the distribution range. 1671 02:13:24,220 --> 02:13:27,020 This is something that I want you to print out. 1672 02:13:27,420 --> 02:13:33,820 to have to have it in your library uh and to study as a homework assignment 1673 02:13:33,820 --> 02:13:40,220 and obviously to remember those characteristics and remember this 1674 02:13:40,220 --> 02:13:45,280 usually when we don't remember the sequence you know of all of the labeling 1675 02:13:45,280 --> 02:13:49,480 events that are happening this is where we are starting to make mistakes 1676 02:13:50,200 --> 02:13:55,020 and this is where I see how the students may be not understanding the material. 1677 02:13:55,160 --> 02:13:59,700 So please make sure that you go through this slide and study and remember 1678 02:13:59,700 --> 02:14:01,600 characteristics by heart. 1679 02:14:02,960 --> 02:14:09,560 Okay, let's look at some variations of the distributional patterns. 1680 02:14:12,320 --> 02:14:19,060 So a conventional distributional trading range would look something like 1681 02:14:19,060 --> 02:14:25,180 this. where we see a horizontal structure and we could have maybe some 1682 02:14:25,180 --> 02:14:31,860 higher high into phase C, maybe a lower high, you know, where we would have like 1683 02:14:31,860 --> 02:14:34,140 a last point of supply type of situation. 1684 02:14:34,700 --> 02:14:41,080 But predominantly, the price would be consolidating within the boundaries of 1685 02:14:41,080 --> 02:14:44,500 support and the resistance that were created by the bionic climax and 1686 02:14:44,500 --> 02:14:48,200 reaction in phase A. 1687 02:14:49,360 --> 02:14:55,460 A more alternative schematics and labeling 1688 02:14:55,460 --> 02:15:02,380 could include a leadership, a distribution of 1689 02:15:02,380 --> 02:15:08,960 the leadership stock or a leadership instrument. It's usually going to be 1690 02:15:08,960 --> 02:15:15,120 associated with a very 1691 02:15:15,120 --> 02:15:21,400 unwilling change in sentiment by market participants in this structure. 1692 02:15:22,020 --> 02:15:27,440 It has been a leader on the way up, and it still could act as a leadership. And 1693 02:15:27,440 --> 02:15:33,960 the 2018 market in the US is a prime example of that, 1694 02:15:34,100 --> 02:15:40,600 where we did have a change of character, and yet we had an upthrust 1695 02:15:40,600 --> 02:15:47,140 into the climactic high. It more reminds us of the... 1696 02:15:47,930 --> 02:15:53,530 of this schematic right here which also defines a distribution of the leadership 1697 02:15:53,530 --> 02:16:00,450 stock where buying climax is being followed by a shakeout type of 1698 02:16:00,450 --> 02:16:05,770 action then we have a reaccumulation type of structure that leads us to the 1699 02:16:05,770 --> 02:16:11,790 thrust formation and then we have a downturn now in this market what's 1700 02:16:11,790 --> 02:16:18,600 kind of like very very interesting about this market is that As it went down, 1701 02:16:18,720 --> 02:16:20,600 it recovered really fast. 1702 02:16:21,940 --> 02:16:25,700 So therefore, what are we thinking here with this recovery? 1703 02:16:26,140 --> 02:16:28,100 Why did it recover so fast? 1704 02:16:28,320 --> 02:16:33,139 Well, it only could recover under one condition, where in the oversold 1705 02:16:33,139 --> 02:16:37,480 condition, we have some kind of value for institutions. 1706 02:16:38,680 --> 02:16:42,680 If there is some value for the institutions, what does it mean for the 1707 02:16:43,280 --> 02:16:47,340 Well, the long -term buyers, as they see it, is still up. 1708 02:16:48,520 --> 02:16:54,440 So therefore, I'm thinking that this whole formation that we're in right now, 1709 02:16:54,600 --> 02:16:57,480 probably just a long -term reaccumulation. 1710 02:16:57,760 --> 02:17:02,600 And probably this rally will conclude with some kind of reaction and then a 1711 02:17:02,600 --> 02:17:08,139 consolidation that's going to lead to potentially next move to the upside. 1712 02:17:08,620 --> 02:17:15,530 This type of scenario could only be negated when we would see maybe a 1713 02:17:15,530 --> 02:17:20,490 that's going to bring us to the lows, and then the subsequent rallies are 1714 02:17:20,490 --> 02:17:27,490 to be so weak that we're just going to collapse after those. So it's going to 1715 02:17:27,490 --> 02:17:32,010 be interesting to look at the next reaction because next reaction is going 1716 02:17:32,010 --> 02:17:35,230 define a lot of the structure that's going to come next. 1717 02:17:36,570 --> 02:17:39,610 But this is something that if you want to hear more on. 1718 02:17:40,090 --> 02:17:44,270 you could join us for our Wednesday class, Wyckoff Market Discussion. 1719 02:17:45,129 --> 02:17:51,830 So two types of leadership distributional patterns. 1720 02:17:52,510 --> 02:17:56,049 And then we go into something very, very unique. 1721 02:17:58,150 --> 02:18:04,230 Both of these patterns, so number three and number five, 1722 02:18:04,330 --> 02:18:11,000 are... of the same family, and they are called tipi 1723 02:18:11,000 --> 02:18:14,520 formations or tipi family. 1724 02:18:15,320 --> 02:18:18,660 So what is tipi by itself? 1725 02:18:18,920 --> 02:18:22,540 Well, it was taken from the Indian hut look. 1726 02:18:23,580 --> 02:18:27,900 This is how it looks. So there is a move up, and then there is a quick move 1727 02:18:27,900 --> 02:18:34,219 down, speculation on the way up, and then urgent selling on the way down. 1728 02:18:34,760 --> 02:18:41,240 Why is it so? Well, because there is just like not even extreme, double 1729 02:18:41,240 --> 02:18:48,080 extreme overbought condition on the way up. 1730 02:18:48,200 --> 02:18:49,879 Basically a pure speculation. 1731 02:18:50,500 --> 02:18:56,620 And you've seen this in the Bitcoin just recently. 1732 02:18:57,379 --> 02:19:01,740 You've seen this in the Chinese market in 2015. 1733 02:19:04,650 --> 02:19:08,430 so many other examples that we could observe. 1734 02:19:08,969 --> 02:19:15,770 In this hypodermic formation, and this is the biggest difference between, let's 1735 02:19:15,770 --> 02:19:20,049 say, hypodermic formation than anything else that we see here on this slide, 1736 02:19:20,770 --> 02:19:23,709 the phases are going to collapse. 1737 02:19:24,030 --> 02:19:28,930 And the duration of the phases is 1738 02:19:28,930 --> 02:19:31,809 going to shorten. 1739 02:19:32,070 --> 02:19:33,090 So therefore, 1740 02:19:35,309 --> 02:19:41,930 our phase B is going to be short, and it's going to be in line 1741 02:19:41,930 --> 02:19:44,690 as phase A and phase C. 1742 02:19:47,510 --> 02:19:53,550 Usually, we would like to see phase B as one of the biggest phases, right? 1743 02:19:54,070 --> 02:19:57,370 Look at all of the schematics. Phase B is quite substantial. 1744 02:19:59,610 --> 02:20:04,710 But in the case of the hypodermic distribution, this is where... 1745 02:20:05,100 --> 02:20:08,580 There's going to be collapse in duration for phases. Why does this happen? 1746 02:20:09,480 --> 02:20:16,100 Well, because of the extreme value that institutions 1747 02:20:16,100 --> 02:20:20,040 are getting and extreme profitability that they have. 1748 02:20:20,460 --> 02:20:26,060 They don't want to wait and distribute the stock throughout the horizontal 1749 02:20:26,060 --> 02:20:32,700 formation and take time to do that. They basically say, get me out 1750 02:20:32,700 --> 02:20:33,700 now. 1751 02:20:34,760 --> 02:20:36,460 And I don't care at what price. 1752 02:20:36,920 --> 02:20:42,720 So they're going to sell, sell, sell on the way down. And they're just going to 1753 02:20:42,720 --> 02:20:49,580 take the profits, you know, whatever profits they can. And that profit, even 1754 02:20:49,580 --> 02:20:50,940 the way down, is going to be substantial. 1755 02:20:53,080 --> 02:20:57,580 We'll study more of these examples, you know, later on and in the practicum as 1756 02:20:57,580 --> 02:21:01,560 well. Another TP family member is... 1757 02:21:01,820 --> 02:21:04,240 the last chart, the last schematic right here. 1758 02:21:05,020 --> 02:21:10,260 And it's going to have the same type of institutional behavioral 1759 02:21:10,260 --> 02:21:14,220 characteristics as the hypodermic distribution. 1760 02:21:14,800 --> 02:21:19,280 There's going to be some speculation on the way up, but then what's more even 1761 02:21:19,280 --> 02:21:26,160 important is that throughout the initial phase A and early phase 1762 02:21:26,160 --> 02:21:29,480 B, we're going to see urgent distribution. 1763 02:21:30,330 --> 02:21:31,330 by institutions. 1764 02:21:32,290 --> 02:21:39,170 And usually this urgent distribution will conclude 1765 02:21:39,170 --> 02:21:41,330 initial selling by institutions. 1766 02:21:41,910 --> 02:21:46,690 And because of that, the price is going to go into some kind of apex formation. 1767 02:21:47,730 --> 02:21:51,350 And in this apex formation, this is what's going to happen. 1768 02:21:51,850 --> 02:21:56,870 Weak hands are going to find some value and they're going to be buyers. 1769 02:21:57,740 --> 02:22:00,960 But because they're weak hands, their bind is not going to be very intense. 1770 02:22:01,360 --> 02:22:07,260 And it will never produce the rally that's going to come to the levels of 1771 02:22:07,260 --> 02:22:08,260 bind climax. 1772 02:22:09,840 --> 02:22:16,640 And this is one of the attributes of this CP Apex formation. 1773 02:22:18,720 --> 02:22:23,380 And institutions, you know, the strong hands, they're already sold. 1774 02:22:23,660 --> 02:22:25,480 They don't need to sell anymore. 1775 02:22:27,120 --> 02:22:29,500 They are just basically inactive. 1776 02:22:29,760 --> 02:22:35,700 So institutions are inactive throughout 1777 02:22:35,700 --> 02:22:38,960 this whole apex formation. 1778 02:22:39,180 --> 02:22:44,100 If institutions are inactive, then all of the reactions to the downside, just 1779 02:22:44,100 --> 02:22:47,940 because they are biased already to the downside, are going to be mediocre as 1780 02:22:47,940 --> 02:22:51,100 well. And that's what creates the apex. 1781 02:22:51,770 --> 02:22:55,630 Weak hands are buying at the value zone, and then they're just holding on to the 1782 02:22:55,630 --> 02:23:00,850 position. And then strong hands are just basically already sold out, and they 1783 02:23:00,850 --> 02:23:01,850 don't want to sell anymore. 1784 02:23:02,330 --> 02:23:08,970 So there is an inactivity by institutions, and that produces this 1785 02:23:08,970 --> 02:23:14,610 formation. It is being resolved on the way out. And ironically, 1786 02:23:14,970 --> 02:23:19,110 this on the way out is also going to be led by institutions. 1787 02:23:20,120 --> 02:23:24,740 they're going to see that throughout, let's say, a couple of quarters, there 1788 02:23:24,740 --> 02:23:29,940 no absolute or 1789 02:23:29,940 --> 02:23:36,820 relative outperformance. 1790 02:23:38,500 --> 02:23:43,040 And this will lead for the final capitulation. 1791 02:23:44,540 --> 02:23:49,210 And they were going to give up on this position. As they're giving up, the 1792 02:23:49,210 --> 02:23:53,290 supply is going to increase at this spot, and also the price will start 1793 02:23:53,290 --> 02:23:54,290 to the downside. 1794 02:23:54,330 --> 02:23:58,190 This movement to the downside will change the sentiment of weak hands, and 1795 02:23:58,190 --> 02:23:59,390 they're going to start selling as well. 1796 02:23:59,650 --> 02:24:05,670 And that's why apex formations produce such quick moves on high volume 1797 02:24:05,670 --> 02:24:09,850 signatures, because if there is a capitulation out of the apex formation, 1798 02:24:10,190 --> 02:24:14,350 everyone participates in that, and they're going to just capitulate on the 1799 02:24:14,350 --> 02:24:15,350 down. 1800 02:24:15,960 --> 02:24:20,060 getting out of the position, and it just collapses the stock, collapses the 1801 02:24:20,060 --> 02:24:21,060 price. 1802 02:24:22,300 --> 02:24:28,000 All right, so definitely something that I want you to think about, that I want 1803 02:24:28,000 --> 02:24:34,260 you to go through, and especially this slide right here 1804 02:24:34,260 --> 02:24:41,040 with all 1805 02:24:41,040 --> 02:24:44,600 of the Wyckoff events. 1806 02:24:45,120 --> 02:24:49,200 all of the phases, intentions behind those, and so on and so forth. 1807 02:24:50,600 --> 02:24:55,060 Okay, so I think that we're going to stop. Okay, so a couple of other things. 1808 02:24:55,280 --> 02:25:00,900 So chit -chat on the distribution, phases A and B. This is, again, 1809 02:25:00,900 --> 02:25:06,200 that you need to print out and just keep in front of you, keep it in your 1810 02:25:06,200 --> 02:25:07,200 library. 1811 02:25:07,400 --> 02:25:12,720 Go through all of these points. This is just another way for me to give you this 1812 02:25:12,720 --> 02:25:13,720 information. 1813 02:25:15,100 --> 02:25:22,020 I believe, you know, as a teacher, that if I give you the same information in 1814 02:25:22,020 --> 02:25:26,800 different ways, one of the ways are going to resonate more. So this is just 1815 02:25:26,800 --> 02:25:30,740 another way of thinking about this concept. So just go through this by 1816 02:25:32,000 --> 02:25:33,720 Phase C, D, and E. 1817 02:25:34,600 --> 02:25:41,540 And then your homework for next time. Your homework is still going 1818 02:25:41,540 --> 02:25:42,680 to be on labeling. 1819 02:25:42,960 --> 02:25:44,000 We're going to label. 1820 02:25:44,490 --> 02:25:45,490 Microsoft. 1821 02:25:45,910 --> 02:25:50,970 And it's the same assignment. I want you to label the trading ranges with WICA 1822 02:25:50,970 --> 02:25:53,710 phases, events, and change of character. 1823 02:25:54,550 --> 02:25:58,830 So let's quickly look at this. And you could notice that I don't have the 1824 02:25:58,830 --> 02:26:00,330 signature on all of these slides. 1825 02:26:00,550 --> 02:26:01,910 It's very intentional. 1826 02:26:02,230 --> 02:26:06,390 I want your mind to think only about labeling at this point. 1827 02:26:07,450 --> 02:26:12,970 So 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. 1828 02:26:13,690 --> 02:26:16,030 Seven, eight, nine. 1829 02:26:17,810 --> 02:26:19,170 Yes, okay, great. 1830 02:26:19,490 --> 02:26:21,010 So nine charts. 1831 02:26:21,770 --> 02:26:23,630 Okay, so this is the homework. 1832 02:26:25,110 --> 02:26:30,930 And then next class, what we're going to do is we're going to look at your 1833 02:26:30,930 --> 02:26:34,330 distribution homework for today. 1834 02:26:35,430 --> 02:26:41,470 And we're going to go through that, and we still have some of the material that 1835 02:26:41,470 --> 02:26:42,470 we need to cover. 1836 02:26:43,990 --> 02:26:49,430 But this is going to be, you know, our last final class on 1837 02:26:49,430 --> 02:26:54,650 price structural analysis, and then we're going to transition it to the 1838 02:26:54,650 --> 02:26:55,650 and demand. 1839 02:26:56,050 --> 02:27:01,830 So Eric is saying here, too much, Ramon. Okay. Well, yeah, if you guys are 1840 02:27:01,830 --> 02:27:07,510 feeling like for those of you, you know, for those of you who feel like, oh, 1841 02:27:07,510 --> 02:27:08,630 it's a little bit too much. 1842 02:27:08,990 --> 02:27:10,230 Go at your own pace. 1843 02:27:10,710 --> 02:27:14,770 Sometimes when I receive emails like, this is a very intense course. 1844 02:27:16,010 --> 02:27:17,250 Yes, it is. 1845 02:27:18,190 --> 02:27:22,630 But there is no other way that I know how to teach this material. 1846 02:27:22,850 --> 02:27:26,130 And there is no other way that I would want to teach this material. 1847 02:27:26,870 --> 02:27:30,110 It's just me. It's just kind of like a style, a teaching style. 1848 02:27:30,870 --> 02:27:37,370 So therefore, take your time and go at your own pace. If you feel like you 1849 02:27:37,370 --> 02:27:38,370 go through the whole homework, 1850 02:27:39,120 --> 02:27:41,740 make it a point just to label at least one chart. 1851 02:27:42,020 --> 02:27:47,060 Maybe two. Maybe you can do three. Or maybe you'll find the time and label all 1852 02:27:47,060 --> 02:27:52,160 nine. And obviously, it comes with the practice. So the more you practice, the 1853 02:27:52,160 --> 02:27:57,780 faster you're going to see those concepts on the chart, the faster you're 1854 02:27:57,780 --> 02:28:00,020 to label those and so on and so forth. 1855 02:28:00,240 --> 02:28:05,620 So that's kind of like the key. To study, but to study at your own pace and 1856 02:28:05,620 --> 02:28:07,000 don't over... 1857 02:28:11,179 --> 02:28:16,220 Don't overdo something like this where, you know, I understand that this is not 1858 02:28:16,220 --> 02:28:22,540 your job. This is more of a secondary income that you want to create. You 1859 02:28:22,620 --> 02:28:26,800 maybe it's kind of like a hobby for somebody, so therefore just pace 1860 02:28:27,880 --> 02:28:30,300 All right, let's see some of the comments. 1861 02:28:32,029 --> 02:28:36,090 What does it cost to be a part of your Wednesday market update class? 1862 02:28:36,530 --> 02:28:38,910 We'll definitely go to our website. 1863 02:28:39,570 --> 02:28:43,490 Let me just see if I could quickly... 1864 02:28:43,490 --> 02:28:53,350 If 1865 02:28:53,350 --> 02:28:54,870 I could quickly show you this. 1866 02:28:55,930 --> 02:28:59,870 So under classes, go to a wake -up market discussion. 1867 02:29:01,640 --> 02:29:05,400 The cost of this class is $99 per month. 1868 02:29:06,160 --> 02:29:12,280 This is a monthly recurring payment, so you can cancel it at any point 1869 02:29:12,280 --> 02:29:16,580 via PayPal or just email us. 1870 02:29:17,540 --> 02:29:22,340 And this is an hour and a half on the market on the last bar. 1871 02:29:22,580 --> 02:29:24,840 So, yeah, you're welcome to join us. 1872 02:29:27,480 --> 02:29:28,820 Another question. 1873 02:29:34,640 --> 02:29:39,520 Ramon, for me the confusion is the difference of sign of weakness or spring 1874 02:29:39,520 --> 02:29:40,980 to reaccumulation. 1875 02:29:41,560 --> 02:29:47,220 Can have a spring and distribution have sign of weakness so that it's so 1876 02:29:47,220 --> 02:29:52,180 similar? Okay, let me rephrase this question so I think I understand it. So 1877 02:29:52,180 --> 02:29:56,760 difference between a spring 1878 02:29:56,760 --> 02:30:01,860 in the reaccumulation 1879 02:30:05,250 --> 02:30:09,970 and a sign of weakness in the distribution. 1880 02:30:11,610 --> 02:30:17,410 I'm going to assume that a major sign of weakness in the distribution. 1881 02:30:20,650 --> 02:30:26,590 So what's the difference, right? Because they're going to look the same or 1882 02:30:26,590 --> 02:30:27,590 somewhat the same. 1883 02:30:29,550 --> 02:30:30,550 Well, 1884 02:30:31,150 --> 02:30:36,070 there are quite a few things that are going to happen before, right? Even in 1885 02:30:36,070 --> 02:30:41,490 phase A, as we've studied, there might be some very average volume signature 1886 02:30:41,490 --> 02:30:46,310 that's going to indicate to you that this is a reaccumulation. 1887 02:30:46,550 --> 02:30:53,070 Maybe there is a subsequent supply dryout and maybe just slight increase, 1888 02:30:53,070 --> 02:30:55,810 increase of the volume signature on the actual spring. 1889 02:30:57,340 --> 02:31:01,300 Whereas in the distribution, we might have phase A that's going to be 1890 02:31:01,300 --> 02:31:06,700 with a big supply increase and then 1891 02:31:06,700 --> 02:31:10,760 increase of the supply signature on the way down. 1892 02:31:11,560 --> 02:31:17,260 So that could look different. But even if we have not noticed this, then we 1893 02:31:17,260 --> 02:31:22,380 always would be thinking about the confirmation of those patterns, the 1894 02:31:22,380 --> 02:31:25,380 confirmation of a spring. 1895 02:31:25,960 --> 02:31:29,460 A confirmation of a sign of weakness. So what would be a confirmation of a 1896 02:31:29,460 --> 02:31:34,120 spring? The price comes back into the trading range and goes into a major sign 1897 02:31:34,120 --> 02:31:35,120 of strength. 1898 02:31:35,300 --> 02:31:40,300 And then with the major sign of weakness, there's going to be an attempt 1899 02:31:40,300 --> 02:31:41,300 back. 1900 02:31:41,780 --> 02:31:48,260 The price could come back, but then it still needs to react into the resistance 1901 02:31:48,260 --> 02:31:50,280 and then collapse. 1902 02:31:51,160 --> 02:31:55,380 So those are going to be two different pictures that you're going to see as a 1903 02:31:55,380 --> 02:32:01,060 confirmation. So I would concentrate on that first because it's an easy 1904 02:32:01,060 --> 02:32:06,080 identification. And then try to define the bias throughout the whole structure 1905 02:32:06,080 --> 02:32:12,040 as you go through phases A and B, which is a much, much harder task. 1906 02:32:13,280 --> 02:32:14,300 All right. 1907 02:32:17,800 --> 02:32:19,220 Is there... 1908 02:32:21,100 --> 02:32:26,060 a redistribution trading range set up similar to reaccumulation, or will it 1909 02:32:26,060 --> 02:32:30,420 proceed by buying climax during overall downtrend? 1910 02:32:33,340 --> 02:32:40,040 There are quite a few similarities that we could have between a reaccumulation 1911 02:32:40,040 --> 02:32:42,960 and a distribution. 1912 02:32:43,440 --> 02:32:48,380 And usually, as we say, like the first one -third of the trading range. 1913 02:32:48,950 --> 02:32:53,970 is going to look the same. Now, this statement is correct and erroneous at 1914 02:32:53,970 --> 02:33:00,110 same time because, yes, in some instances, the trading ranges are going 1915 02:33:00,110 --> 02:33:04,350 know, with different bias, with the reaccumulation and the distribution 1916 02:33:04,610 --> 02:33:08,070 indeed, they're going to start the same way. And actually, I have an exercise 1917 02:33:08,070 --> 02:33:14,530 for you for the second month where we're going to look at something like that. 1918 02:33:15,130 --> 02:33:20,100 And yet, the resolution of the trading ranges are going to be different. 1919 02:33:20,340 --> 02:33:22,480 So we'll talk about that difference more. 1920 02:33:22,860 --> 02:33:27,840 But on a very kind of like simplistic level, 1921 02:33:28,180 --> 02:33:35,180 yes, you're going to see distributional patterns that 1922 02:33:35,180 --> 02:33:39,800 are going to look a lot like an accumulation or reaccumulation rather. 1923 02:33:40,220 --> 02:33:44,160 I've started session number one with the examples of the trades that I made. 1924 02:33:44,480 --> 02:33:48,900 Go back to that session and rewatch a trade in Novodea. 1925 02:33:49,440 --> 02:33:55,660 I've mentioned to you that throughout the whole trading range, this was one of 1926 02:33:55,660 --> 02:33:59,660 the leadership stocks that was on my watch list still as a reaccumulation. 1927 02:34:00,120 --> 02:34:04,800 And I don't see anything wrong with that definition. 1928 02:34:05,300 --> 02:34:08,300 Yes, we know that Novodea went down. 1929 02:34:08,750 --> 02:34:15,470 And it would be dishonest for me to tell you that I was 1930 02:34:15,470 --> 02:34:21,150 thinking of the distribution all the way through the trading range. That's just 1931 02:34:21,150 --> 02:34:22,210 not how I function. 1932 02:34:22,490 --> 02:34:26,470 I was thinking about the reaccumulation, so I'm going to tell you this. 1933 02:34:26,770 --> 02:34:33,710 And then some elements that came later on after the upthrust. 1934 02:34:34,330 --> 02:34:38,850 That suggested the change of character and defined the bias to the downside. 1935 02:34:40,650 --> 02:34:45,810 And that's when I figured out that now it's going to be distributed. 1936 02:34:46,170 --> 02:34:48,990 And it's going to be distributed relatively fast. 1937 02:34:49,670 --> 02:34:52,750 So we're looking for those type of definitions. 1938 02:34:53,450 --> 02:34:59,030 Whenever you're asking me a question like that, you're looking for a linear 1939 02:34:59,030 --> 02:35:04,530 solution to a complex multivariable type of problem. problem. 1940 02:35:05,270 --> 02:35:09,210 And you can't solve this problem in a linear way. 1941 02:35:09,690 --> 02:35:15,210 Or you can solve it in a linear way, but you have to have the capacity to 1942 02:35:15,210 --> 02:35:21,850 connect so many different variables, so many data points, and you just can't. As 1943 02:35:21,850 --> 02:35:25,190 a human, you can't. I think that, you know, if you're using maybe like 1944 02:35:25,190 --> 02:35:31,030 supercomputers, you probably can, but you still have to define the rules for 1945 02:35:31,030 --> 02:35:36,530 supercomputer, unless you define the artificial intelligence rules and then 1946 02:35:36,530 --> 02:35:38,530 system learns how to identify it. 1947 02:35:39,230 --> 02:35:46,150 But for now, the key is concentrate on the concepts and then be fluid, 1948 02:35:46,410 --> 02:35:48,250 be dynamic in your analysis. 1949 02:35:48,450 --> 02:35:53,050 Don't be linear. Don't be thinking that, oh, it has to be all rule -based. 1950 02:35:53,350 --> 02:35:59,030 Yes, it has to be. But in a lot of cases, it has to be conceptually based, 1951 02:35:59,250 --> 02:36:05,950 concept -based, right? So concept comes, As a change of character, bias changes, 1952 02:36:06,130 --> 02:36:09,710 and therefore a good trade is being produced. 1953 02:36:12,050 --> 02:36:13,050 Okay. 1954 02:36:13,870 --> 02:36:14,870 What else? 1955 02:36:20,570 --> 02:36:26,890 Okay, so I'm just going to conclude here with one last remark, and that's it. 1956 02:36:26,930 --> 02:36:28,790 I'm going to go and rest. 1957 02:36:31,850 --> 02:36:38,090 This comes from Rick, and he says, no other way I would want to learn. This is 1958 02:36:38,090 --> 02:36:40,850 my life to trade. This is my job. 1959 02:36:42,390 --> 02:36:45,490 And I love this because I'm the same way. 1960 02:36:45,830 --> 02:36:52,570 You guys could definitely feel this, you know, with each session that, you know, 1961 02:36:52,590 --> 02:36:58,290 I've developed quite a passion for trading, for markets, for this material, 1962 02:36:58,290 --> 02:37:00,050 way how the logic works. 1963 02:37:00,710 --> 02:37:03,670 with all of those details and so on and so forth. 1964 02:37:03,910 --> 02:37:10,830 And I definitely know that there are quite a few people in this class 1965 02:37:10,830 --> 02:37:16,570 who have the same passion, the same kind of like dedication, commitment to this 1966 02:37:16,570 --> 02:37:18,890 material, which is great. 1967 02:37:19,090 --> 02:37:25,490 But I also do not want to oversee other students who maybe do not have the same 1968 02:37:25,490 --> 02:37:28,350 amount of time and the same type of... 1969 02:37:28,680 --> 02:37:33,800 Commitment just because of how the life is, right? There are other things, more 1970 02:37:33,800 --> 02:37:39,320 important things than this event. There are families, there are jobs, there are 1971 02:37:39,320 --> 02:37:45,520 other things that you, you know, responsible for. So totally get this. Do 1972 02:37:45,520 --> 02:37:47,620 stress about that at all. 1973 02:37:50,000 --> 02:37:52,320 And go at your own pace. 1974 02:37:52,540 --> 02:37:55,360 The key is just to stay in the system. 1975 02:37:55,770 --> 02:38:01,650 to stay in this educational system and try to get the most value out of this 1976 02:38:01,650 --> 02:38:08,470 education. So therefore, come to the class, be present, be conscious when 1977 02:38:08,470 --> 02:38:09,910 you are in this class. 1978 02:38:10,370 --> 02:38:15,370 This is one thing that when you come to this class and you're tired and your 1979 02:38:15,370 --> 02:38:18,270 time is limited, do yourself a favor. 1980 02:38:18,490 --> 02:38:23,950 Stay conscious for this two and a half hours and stay present because... 1981 02:38:24,320 --> 02:38:27,440 You're going to gain a lot of knowledge and you're going to gain a lot of 1982 02:38:27,440 --> 02:38:28,440 material from this. 1983 02:38:29,080 --> 02:38:34,620 But if you're not paying attention, then it's kind of like you're there, but 1984 02:38:34,620 --> 02:38:35,620 you're not there. 1985 02:38:36,380 --> 02:38:41,640 And then if you can't re -watch the video again, that's fine. If you can't 1986 02:38:41,640 --> 02:38:43,900 the homework fully, that's fine as well. 1987 02:38:44,980 --> 02:38:49,500 Maybe in the future you could re -listen to the course, re -watch the course, 1988 02:38:49,640 --> 02:38:51,100 and do those homeworks. 1989 02:38:52,279 --> 02:38:57,000 I've been teaching for quite some time, and at the beginning of my teaching 1990 02:38:57,000 --> 02:38:59,700 career, I was so strict with students. 1991 02:38:59,960 --> 02:39:06,320 And then it took me a time to understand that people have 1992 02:39:06,320 --> 02:39:11,260 their own lives, and there are some things that are much more important than 1993 02:39:11,260 --> 02:39:16,700 this. So define your commitment and involvement in this course by yourself. 1994 02:39:16,700 --> 02:39:20,720 me know how you're doing this, and I support you all the way. 1995 02:39:21,100 --> 02:39:22,440 with whatever path you choose. 1996 02:39:22,800 --> 02:39:26,160 With this, guys, I'm going to say good night. 1997 02:39:27,200 --> 02:39:33,260 I'm going to try to post this recording tonight, and then I'll see you all next 1998 02:39:33,260 --> 02:39:35,460 week on Monday. Send me your homework. 1999 02:39:35,740 --> 02:39:39,360 Thank you, guys, and I'll talk to you later. 2000 02:39:40,000 --> 02:39:41,280 Cameron, thank you so much. 2001 02:39:41,500 --> 02:39:42,500 Bye -bye. 178562

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