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1
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Hello, everyone. Today is January 28th,
and this is our session number four of
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the Wyckoff Trading Course.
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Just FYI, I am sick. I'm not feeling
well, so I do not know how long I can
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00:00:13,950 --> 00:00:20,810
go on with the class. Maybe I'll feel
that as I start talking
5
00:00:20,810 --> 00:00:24,210
more, it kind of comes back to me and I
have more energy.
6
00:00:25,050 --> 00:00:27,190
I'm totally on drugs right now.
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00:00:29,180 --> 00:00:32,840
And, you know, hopefully that will just
carry me through the class. If we can't
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00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:37,980
finish, you know, at least two hours or
two and a half hours, then, you know,
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00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:42,620
I'll just find some time to extend other
classes and we'll just compensate for
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00:00:42,620 --> 00:00:44,540
the lost time like that.
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00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,900
All right. Having said this, I'm excited
to be here.
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00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:54,460
I went through your homework again just
because I've been feeling so bad,
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00:00:54,580 --> 00:00:56,860
especially today and throughout the
whole weekend.
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00:00:58,520 --> 00:00:59,780
I looked at your homework.
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00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:04,019
So I opened all of them. I have not
answered all of you.
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00:01:04,620 --> 00:01:08,540
So that's kind of like, you know, what's
going on.
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00:01:10,060 --> 00:01:16,820
My overall impression of the homework
was that we're definitely on a good
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00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:22,160
There are some of the mistakes that are
common mistakes.
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00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,460
We'll talk about this as we review the
distribution homework.
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00:01:26,330 --> 00:01:31,170
Hopefully, we'll start it today, if not
next week.
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00:01:32,370 --> 00:01:38,110
But I've noticed one thing. There is
definitely a trend of improvement that's
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00:01:38,110 --> 00:01:39,290
happening for the whole group.
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00:01:39,650 --> 00:01:46,650
So that's what is so good and exciting
that I see
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how the boundaries are much better. I
see how the labeling is much better. So
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00:01:51,670 --> 00:01:54,150
we're definitely doing a lot of good
things.
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00:01:55,470 --> 00:02:00,050
All right, next session, February 4th in
a week.
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What will we be discussing?
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Let's just go to the outline right away.
So today, we're still going to review
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00:02:08,490 --> 00:02:13,390
the homework from last week on Home
Depot, and I will try to go a little bit
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00:02:13,390 --> 00:02:14,390
faster.
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00:02:15,930 --> 00:02:19,470
Maybe we'll not have the volunteers for
that. Maybe we'll have some volunteers
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00:02:19,470 --> 00:02:23,550
for the distribution labeling. So we'll
try to cover as much as possible.
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00:02:24,460 --> 00:02:31,360
And then still to cover, actually, we've
covered phase boundaries, right? So
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00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:35,680
we've covered phase boundaries. We've
covered phase C identification.
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00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:43,840
I think, yes, so all of this, sprints
and shakeouts, signs of strength,
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00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:45,980
and downslope and trading range, those
are going to be discussed.
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00:02:47,049 --> 00:02:50,470
distribution, and then the next homework
on Microsoft.
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00:02:50,790 --> 00:02:55,310
So this homework is going to be
interesting because this is usually the
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when I let you guys do the homework, you
send it to me, but then I give you the
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00:03:00,910 --> 00:03:06,050
homework as slides, you know, not
necessarily we're going to discuss it in
41
00:03:06,050 --> 00:03:07,050
classroom.
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00:03:07,390 --> 00:03:11,550
And then next session, we're going to
finish our price structural analysis.
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00:03:11,550 --> 00:03:14,150
is going to be the final session on
price structural analysis.
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00:03:15,420 --> 00:03:19,240
That doesn't mean that we will not use
it in other months.
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00:03:20,060 --> 00:03:26,560
We're still going to use price
structural analysis so much
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00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:30,400
during our supply and demand sessions.
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00:03:32,260 --> 00:03:38,480
And session number five will be the last
one on the price structural analysis.
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00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:41,240
Okay, let's come back.
49
00:03:42,260 --> 00:03:43,260
All right.
50
00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:49,140
As usual, all of our discussions are for
educational purposes only.
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00:03:49,980 --> 00:03:56,940
And we're going to start with the Q &A,
just one question, or rather one slide.
52
00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:04,040
And this slide and question comes from
Justin.
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00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:10,160
And by the way, guys, if you have in
your mind some kind of question like,
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00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:12,300
why are we discussing this particular
question?
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00:04:12,970 --> 00:04:15,570
Well, first of all, because I picked it.
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00:04:16,630 --> 00:04:22,770
Secondly, I see value of this discussion
right now because we're discussing the
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price structural analysis as number one,
so we could go through that.
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00:04:26,490 --> 00:04:33,430
And then it definitely has that feel of
the current market, so
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00:04:33,430 --> 00:04:40,350
it's great. Some of you are sending me
requests of look at the
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00:04:40,350 --> 00:04:41,470
chart and comment.
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00:04:42,799 --> 00:04:47,860
So usually this is not the class to do
this. I mean, like, unless you are right
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00:04:47,860 --> 00:04:51,860
on the money with the material that we
are going through, then I might consider
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00:04:51,860 --> 00:04:57,140
this. My suggestion, and we have such a
beautiful venue to do this, you know, to
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00:04:57,140 --> 00:05:01,180
go through the analysis of stocks that
are like last bought stocks, right?
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00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:06,080
It's the Wednesday class, like of market
discussion class.
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00:05:06,300 --> 00:05:08,140
So you could submit your chart there.
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00:05:13,100 --> 00:05:15,620
Bruce and I will discuss it together.
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00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,860
Obviously, I can't do it every time,
every session.
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00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:24,180
You really, really would have to sign up
for the class, meaning that you'll have
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00:05:24,180 --> 00:05:31,040
to be a member of that class. But once
in a while, I'll let you guys in,
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00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:36,860
and we do this once a semester. At the
end of the whole cycle, I'll invite you
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00:05:36,860 --> 00:05:37,940
for one of those sessions.
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00:05:39,500 --> 00:05:43,800
All right, so let's come back to the
slide, and we're looking at Home Depot.
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Home Depot again.
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00:05:46,420 --> 00:05:52,900
So a few questions here. In
accumulation, does backing up action
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00:05:52,900 --> 00:05:56,720
volume all of the time? So that's
question number one.
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00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:01,580
And if it does, is that where you want
to enter a position?
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00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:07,900
Second question, do sprints LPS always
happen on reversal candle or hammer,
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00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:09,080
right?
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00:06:09,950 --> 00:06:15,910
And then the last question in the
diagram below, it looks like the circle
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00:06:15,910 --> 00:06:22,490
major sign of weakness, but then it
continues upward back into the trading
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00:06:22,490 --> 00:06:26,830
form in the high load. Does that make
the circle a spring instead?
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00:06:27,750 --> 00:06:33,730
So very good questions, Justin, and
let's address those one by one.
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So backing up action, does it always
happen on low volume?
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00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:43,660
No, it doesn't have to be on the low
volume. The volume could increase.
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the volume signature like this, right in
this area right here. So what would it
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mean? How would you interpret this?
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00:06:52,900 --> 00:06:59,540
Well, we would be thinking that with the
volume increase, there is a lot of
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00:06:59,540 --> 00:07:03,520
institutional participation, right?
There is a lot of exchange of shares.
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00:07:05,740 --> 00:07:09,500
How do we know the bias of institutional
participation here?
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00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:11,520
What do you think, guys?
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00:07:12,100 --> 00:07:16,680
Well, we have to look at the price,
right? So we know that they would be
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with the increased volume signature.
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00:07:19,340 --> 00:07:24,400
But we need to look at the price to see
what that signature actually does, what
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00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:26,060
that effort actually does.
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Does it push the price below the area of
the support into the low?
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Does the price have the ability to stay
up in this area?
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And it seems to me that it's holding up.
It doesn't go down. Today was kind of
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like a day like this.
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And that suggests that there is on the
higher
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volume signature that institutions are
present, but they're buyers.
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00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:01,980
They're absorbing whatever supply is
coming with that big volume signature.
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00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,740
Now, in reality, you know, it's
different, right?
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00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:11,220
It's a different volume signature. So we
see how supply increases and then how
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00:08:11,220 --> 00:08:12,440
supply starts to decrease.
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00:08:12,820 --> 00:08:16,100
So we have a decrease of the supply into
the backing up action.
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00:08:16,900 --> 00:08:23,320
So not necessarily that we have to have
a low volume signature. It's preferable.
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00:08:23,420 --> 00:08:28,680
But then if we do have a high volume
signature, then we need to look at the
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00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:31,480
result. In both cases, the result is
actually good.
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00:08:32,159 --> 00:08:37,820
And we would be actually thinking here
that we are in some kind of downslope
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information where we have the commitment
above the
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sloping resistance as a sign of strength
and then a backing up action that backs
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up exactly into the area of the support
that acted before as the resistance. And
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00:08:56,300 --> 00:09:00,060
look how all of these four points are
working very nicely.
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00:09:01,610 --> 00:09:08,310
Let's go right away into the question
about a sign of weakness or a spring.
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00:09:09,950 --> 00:09:13,790
So I would approach it from two
different perspectives.
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The first one is we are looking at what
has happened recently.
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00:09:20,690 --> 00:09:24,070
So, for instance, what has happened in
this area.
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We're seeing that there is a very
substantial rally.
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is much better than the rallies that
we've seen before in this trading range.
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00:09:38,110 --> 00:09:42,510
So that tells us that there is some kind
of change of character that is
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happening. And then we've seen the
reaction that is not the same as the
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00:09:47,930 --> 00:09:49,170
that we've seen in the trading range.
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00:09:49,370 --> 00:09:53,590
So that's also a confirmation of that
change of character. Change of character
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for what? Well, we've been in the
downtrending environment even with
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lower highs and lower lows going into a
potential spring. We're still in the
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00:10:04,680 --> 00:10:08,860
downtrend by the definition, although
this looks already as a consolidation.
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00:10:09,820 --> 00:10:15,360
So this change of character on the way
out and the way the character of this
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change of character, best rally and then
very shallow reaction
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00:10:21,980 --> 00:10:24,800
suggests that the bias is actually to
the upside.
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00:10:25,290 --> 00:10:30,070
And if the bias is to the upside and we
look at the area of the support and we
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00:10:30,070 --> 00:10:36,150
see the price just temporarily
committing below, then this is most
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spring and not a sign of weakness.
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00:10:39,770 --> 00:10:46,730
A sign of weakness here I think could
be, a spring could
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00:10:46,730 --> 00:10:49,990
be confused for the sign of weakness
here if we look at the horizontal
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structure.
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because the commitment below is quite
significant. There are one, two, three
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closes below the area of the support,
actually, the support cluster here.
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00:11:01,680 --> 00:11:08,520
So that view might be actually not the
most
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favorable. I would still use these lows
and highs to connect them together and
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look at how the price commits just
temporarily at the end of this move.
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Maybe there are two closes, but there is
definitely one that commits
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significantly.
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And then everything else is on the
upside.
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Also, for the buys, we kind of see this
area, which is very interesting.
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It's an increase in uptrend.
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And also we see how momentum increases
behind it.
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And it puts the price.
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quickly to the opposite velocity starts
to increase so those could be the
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00:11:53,430 --> 00:12:00,330
elements of either significant
deterioration of the supply or some
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00:12:00,330 --> 00:12:05,010
behind it and in this case i think that
majority of the time has been done here
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here and even on the way down here
because institutions don't function like
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00:12:11,210 --> 00:12:14,590
retail traders they're always thinking
about the value and liquidity
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00:12:14,590 --> 00:12:19,430
opportunities to get in into the
position so it seems to me that this is
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the value zone is right here um here
we're seeing all this buying
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and then as the price goes below the
value zone it becomes extreme value
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and this is just my view for the whole
market it's from the extreme value in
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where we're still technically in the
long -term
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uptrend cycle, right, since 2009 lows.
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00:12:55,460 --> 00:13:01,360
So until we break the lows that were
created in December, we're still going
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be thinking about that. So think for a
second that the long -term bias is up.
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So what is this?
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quick decline means for the market in
this particular stock well it means that
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uh short term we had some kind of
shakeout type of action and then the
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creates that extreme value that is very
attractive to institutions another way
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of looking at this is just looking at
the overall signature here volume
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signature now it definitely increased
over what well over this whole period
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right here
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So there is some buying in this area,
and that's why I'm thinking it's
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to the upside.
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Do sprints, LPS, always happen on the
reversal candle? For example, hammer.
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00:13:49,580 --> 00:13:53,580
There are so many ways how that could
happen.
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You could have a hammer. You could have
just the bar that's going to close.
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the bodies of the previous bars.
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There are so many ways of how a reversal
could happen. We will be studying that
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later on in the fourth month.
177
00:14:14,980 --> 00:14:19,120
Philip is asking, what is the angle of
the price movement that is interpreted
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uptrend, downtrend instead of the
trading rate?
179
00:14:22,660 --> 00:14:27,100
I think this is a really good question
because that's something that produces
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00:14:27,100 --> 00:14:28,100
that
181
00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:36,300
you know, possible mistakes. I've seen
people, you know, showing me something
182
00:14:36,300 --> 00:14:41,880
like this, where it is clearly an
uptrend, and yet they would start
183
00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:48,220
like this, phase A, phase B, phase C,
something like this. This is definitely
184
00:14:48,220 --> 00:14:49,220
not correct.
185
00:14:49,300 --> 00:14:50,600
Definitely not correct.
186
00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:57,520
So I'm not sure about the angle, though,
right? So Philip is asking about the
187
00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:04,280
angle. But what I'm pretty much sure is
that the way how the structure
188
00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:09,740
unfolds. Look at the character of the
down move right here. What do we see on
189
00:15:09,740 --> 00:15:12,000
the opposite side of this reaction?
190
00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:15,460
All of the counter move are very, very
mediocre.
191
00:15:15,860 --> 00:15:22,300
There is no lift in those. So it just
tells us that the cell still persists
192
00:15:22,300 --> 00:15:25,380
and that the bars cannot have...
193
00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:32,380
you know a good meaningful rally and
it's only comes here on the automatic
194
00:15:32,380 --> 00:15:36,640
which becomes a change of character
right away so you know that the change
195
00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:42,020
character is going to suggest a trading
range for consolidation and then once
196
00:15:42,020 --> 00:15:47,400
you start seeing lower highs and lower
lows that's when you try to connect them
197
00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:54,060
and see uh if it would make sense um to
see the price deviate around the mean
198
00:15:54,350 --> 00:15:58,530
And if you could see that, then it's
definitely a trading range. And it's a
199
00:15:58,530 --> 00:16:01,290
downsloping range because of the lower
highs and lower lows.
200
00:16:02,350 --> 00:16:06,950
But I wouldn't be thinking necessarily
in terms of the end goal. I would be
201
00:16:06,950 --> 00:16:10,330
thinking in terms of how the trading
range starts.
202
00:16:13,350 --> 00:16:15,470
Okay, great. Well, Justin, thank you.
203
00:16:18,790 --> 00:16:20,710
All right, let's come back to our
homework.
204
00:16:25,610 --> 00:16:32,070
All right, and the next slide here,
205
00:16:32,230 --> 00:16:37,890
we have three trading ranges.
206
00:16:42,390 --> 00:16:45,010
Yeah, let's have a volunteer.
207
00:16:45,270 --> 00:16:49,330
I just feel like I need a little bit of
a break. So say yes, Alan, you too.
208
00:17:01,610 --> 00:17:02,610
Hi, Rama.
209
00:17:02,830 --> 00:17:04,170
Hi, Roman.
210
00:17:04,710 --> 00:17:06,790
Yeah. Rama? Is it Rama, right?
211
00:17:07,530 --> 00:17:08,530
R -A -M -A, yeah.
212
00:17:08,750 --> 00:17:09,750
Yeah, okay, great.
213
00:17:13,190 --> 00:17:16,550
Okay, so let's start with the first
trading range.
214
00:17:17,130 --> 00:17:18,970
So what catches your eye?
215
00:17:21,270 --> 00:17:24,810
Actually, no, no, no. Let's stop here
for a second.
216
00:17:25,030 --> 00:17:26,510
Let's start with the different question.
217
00:17:27,270 --> 00:17:30,390
What is it? Is it an accumulation or a
reaccumulation?
218
00:17:32,850 --> 00:17:36,730
It's a reaccumulation, the first... Why
is it a reaccumulation?
219
00:17:37,630 --> 00:17:39,670
There is a preceding uptrend.
220
00:17:40,890 --> 00:17:46,830
Yes. So we have a move to the upside,
consolidation, trading range, and then
221
00:17:46,830 --> 00:17:49,890
resumption of this trend. So it's a
reaccumulation, not accumulation.
222
00:17:50,290 --> 00:17:54,070
Okay, great. So what catches your eye
the most in this formation?
223
00:17:56,350 --> 00:17:57,350
It's the...
224
00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:05,680
The buying climax followed by a deep
automatic
225
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:06,680
reaction.
226
00:18:09,500 --> 00:18:16,240
And later, the next is the secondary
227
00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:19,820
test that happens after that.
228
00:18:29,050 --> 00:18:33,330
And that completes the phase A.
229
00:18:34,810 --> 00:18:37,050
Okay. So let's talk about this.
230
00:18:37,410 --> 00:18:40,250
There are quite a few concepts here that
we could discuss.
231
00:18:40,490 --> 00:18:45,350
So it seems to me that the bind climax
is defined correctly, right? Because
232
00:18:45,350 --> 00:18:48,710
we're seeing some kind of climax.
233
00:18:50,590 --> 00:18:57,270
climactic run with the increased spread,
and that definitely defines the
234
00:18:57,270 --> 00:18:58,790
boundary of the trading range.
235
00:18:59,030 --> 00:19:05,990
The alternative labeling to this could
be this whole area
236
00:19:05,990 --> 00:19:08,770
being a buying climax trading range.
237
00:19:08,970 --> 00:19:11,650
I would understand that, so that's fine
as well.
238
00:19:12,790 --> 00:19:17,230
The conventional probably would be
preliminary supply.
239
00:19:18,670 --> 00:19:21,830
buying climax, and then look what
happens next.
240
00:19:22,130 --> 00:19:25,610
What does this remind you of, the next
price action to the downside?
241
00:19:27,830 --> 00:19:34,690
The next price action to the downside is
the, I would consider
242
00:19:34,690 --> 00:19:36,230
that as an automatic reaction.
243
00:19:36,790 --> 00:19:43,570
Of course, yes, and that would be a very
conventional label here,
244
00:19:43,790 --> 00:19:46,470
as we know.
245
00:19:47,530 --> 00:19:51,910
In terms of the character with which the
price goes down, I mean, look at how it
246
00:19:51,910 --> 00:19:56,230
goes down. First of all, there is not a
lot of the distributional pattern here
247
00:19:56,230 --> 00:19:58,890
at the top unless we're considering this
whole pattern here.
248
00:19:59,430 --> 00:20:04,770
Right. So look at this spread,
increasing spread that goes throughout
249
00:20:04,770 --> 00:20:09,470
closes in this area. That's number one.
And then secondly, look at the gap the
250
00:20:09,470 --> 00:20:10,470
next day.
251
00:20:10,870 --> 00:20:17,070
Yeah. And I think the whole price action
reminds me of a climactic.
252
00:20:17,370 --> 00:20:24,110
action yes so climactic action and
climactic action
253
00:20:24,110 --> 00:20:29,150
usually is going to be associated with
two things either climax itself so in
254
00:20:29,150 --> 00:20:35,970
this case selling climax early climax or
a shakeout yeah right
255
00:20:35,970 --> 00:20:42,710
so yeah i mean i would say i would say
that it's a climactic action
256
00:20:43,659 --> 00:20:47,960
very much in association with selling
climax.
257
00:20:48,380 --> 00:20:53,300
Okay, so let's say that this is a
selling climax. Then what would the
258
00:20:53,300 --> 00:20:54,300
be after that?
259
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:04,460
After that, the price is expected to go
and test the area where
260
00:21:04,460 --> 00:21:10,740
the resistance is established. That is,
they're testing the buying climax,
261
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:12,820
the area near the buy.
262
00:21:13,020 --> 00:21:17,200
But think about this. We're discussing a
selling climax, climactic action, or a
263
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:21,040
shakeout. So either labeling would be
okay here.
264
00:21:21,340 --> 00:21:23,680
What should happen after the selling
climax?
265
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:25,520
Not the test.
266
00:21:29,060 --> 00:21:35,680
If we experienced a selling climax, then
we are in the downtrend.
267
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,760
Where is this downtrend? Well, it's this
whole move to the downside.
268
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:41,940
So what happens next?
269
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:49,200
The next, it goes into the trading
range.
270
00:21:49,660 --> 00:21:50,660
Yes.
271
00:21:51,380 --> 00:21:56,280
And from there, there is a rally.
272
00:21:56,500 --> 00:22:00,680
How would you label the first rally of
the low of the selling climax?
273
00:22:03,340 --> 00:22:08,800
That would be labeled as an automatic
reaction.
274
00:22:09,260 --> 00:22:11,660
Automatic rally in the accumulation.
275
00:22:12,590 --> 00:22:15,190
And then the next reaction would be
labeled as?
276
00:22:16,710 --> 00:22:17,710
Secondary test.
277
00:22:17,850 --> 00:22:18,850
Which is testing what?
278
00:22:20,090 --> 00:22:25,470
Testing the area of selling climax.
279
00:22:25,950 --> 00:22:29,490
Okay. So that's exactly what is
happening here.
280
00:22:30,150 --> 00:22:33,810
Yeah. Why do we say that this is an
automatic rally?
281
00:22:34,050 --> 00:22:37,410
Well, look at the quality of the rally.
What does this tell you?
282
00:22:38,010 --> 00:22:41,430
Relative to the downtrend, it's a change
of character.
283
00:22:42,500 --> 00:22:47,000
It's the largest reaction to the upside
since the buying climax.
284
00:22:47,260 --> 00:22:50,460
So, of course, this is going to be a
change of character, and therefore it
285
00:22:50,460 --> 00:22:52,000
be labeled as an automatic rally.
286
00:22:52,620 --> 00:22:54,360
Then look at the next reaction.
287
00:22:54,620 --> 00:22:55,960
How does it look to you?
288
00:22:56,600 --> 00:23:01,540
Diminishing spread, diminishing volume
signature, stopping here at the high or
289
00:23:01,540 --> 00:23:02,540
low.
290
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,420
So that looks like a test.
291
00:23:05,360 --> 00:23:10,280
So, therefore, this is a secondary test
of the climactic action itself. So,
292
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:14,360
therefore... Our labeling could be like
this.
293
00:23:15,500 --> 00:23:22,380
Shake out, automatic rally, change of
character, and then
294
00:23:22,380 --> 00:23:24,540
secondary test. And here is our phase A.
295
00:23:24,900 --> 00:23:28,900
Right. Okay, so what's next that catches
your eye?
296
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:36,160
The next significant is the rally that
goes up to
297
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:37,920
the level of the resistance.
298
00:23:39,100 --> 00:23:40,100
Okay.
299
00:23:42,010 --> 00:23:48,210
And that has a character of essentially
upthrust.
300
00:23:48,410 --> 00:23:49,670
Okay. Yeah.
301
00:23:50,110 --> 00:23:55,070
So it's an upthrust action. Action, yes.
We know that this is a reaccumulation.
302
00:23:55,130 --> 00:23:57,150
Sure. So we'll label this as an upthrust
action.
303
00:23:57,850 --> 00:23:59,050
Which phase is that?
304
00:24:00,630 --> 00:24:01,630
Phase B.
305
00:24:01,690 --> 00:24:05,050
In phase B. Okay, well, okay, we defined
that.
306
00:24:05,470 --> 00:24:07,530
What's the next thing that catches your
eye?
307
00:24:08,790 --> 00:24:09,990
Let's do this.
308
00:24:10,450 --> 00:24:12,050
Where is our phase C?
309
00:24:13,390 --> 00:24:20,150
The phase C is right towards the area
preceding the march.
310
00:24:22,090 --> 00:24:28,010
And phase C, this is the area where
311
00:24:28,010 --> 00:24:32,670
immediately preceding the march. Okay,
something like this?
312
00:24:32,910 --> 00:24:38,680
Yeah. Okay, yeah. So we could have kind
of like a small argument here, you know,
313
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:40,020
what phase C is.
314
00:24:40,940 --> 00:24:47,680
I would say I would mark it even closer,
you know, somewhere around,
315
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,020
yeah. Okay.
316
00:24:50,260 --> 00:24:56,440
So one of the things that, you know,
we've talked about, guys, last time is
317
00:24:56,440 --> 00:25:03,370
looking at different phases and trying
to define the Kind of like the
318
00:25:03,370 --> 00:25:08,490
structures within those phases, right?
So, for instance, this is one structure.
319
00:25:08,670 --> 00:25:10,050
It belongs to phase A.
320
00:25:11,030 --> 00:25:16,490
This is the test of another structure
and has a structure of its own. It's
321
00:25:16,490 --> 00:25:21,870
B. And then it seems to me that all of
these reactions here kind of belong to
322
00:25:21,870 --> 00:25:22,870
the next structure.
323
00:25:23,170 --> 00:25:27,690
Right. So, and that's how we want to
define phases, right? So, we want to say
324
00:25:27,690 --> 00:25:32,050
that... This is our phase C. And then
everything in between is B.
325
00:25:32,410 --> 00:25:37,810
And this is our first test, right? So
test number one, test number two.
326
00:25:39,170 --> 00:25:43,470
And then this whole area right here is
just more complex. So that becomes our
327
00:25:43,470 --> 00:25:46,690
test number three in there for a
potential phase C.
328
00:25:47,010 --> 00:25:51,730
I don't mind labeling it differently,
right? So my first labeling was
329
00:25:51,730 --> 00:25:54,450
here. And I think on my slide, that's
how it is.
330
00:25:55,130 --> 00:25:59,750
But I would be just paying more
attention to the texture of the
331
00:25:59,750 --> 00:26:01,010
each of the phases.
332
00:26:01,390 --> 00:26:07,990
So then what we have here is a buy -in
climax, shake -out,
333
00:26:08,150 --> 00:26:10,930
automatic rally, secondary test, phase
A.
334
00:26:11,170 --> 00:26:14,710
What is the intention behind phase A,
really quick?
335
00:26:15,210 --> 00:26:16,990
A change of character.
336
00:26:18,010 --> 00:26:19,690
Stop in action? Stopping, yeah.
337
00:26:20,190 --> 00:26:22,150
So we're stopping the previous trend.
338
00:26:22,730 --> 00:26:26,850
Then let's say if this is Phase C,
what's the intention behind Phase C?
339
00:26:27,910 --> 00:26:34,870
Phase C marks the commencement of the
next uptrend. That's not the
340
00:26:34,870 --> 00:26:37,550
intention, though. What is the intention
behind Phase C?
341
00:26:38,030 --> 00:26:44,010
Phase C, again, marks the change of
character as the price gets out of the
342
00:26:44,010 --> 00:26:47,990
trading. That's not the intention of
Phase C. What is the intention behind
343
00:26:47,990 --> 00:26:49,170
C? What does it do?
344
00:26:50,030 --> 00:26:56,910
If this is to stop, if phase A is to
stop the previous move, then phase
345
00:26:56,910 --> 00:27:03,470
C is going to be our final test of
supply at support
346
00:27:03,470 --> 00:27:04,470
level.
347
00:27:04,850 --> 00:27:07,010
So I want you to remember this by heart.
348
00:27:07,510 --> 00:27:09,750
Okay, so what's the intention behind
phase B?
349
00:27:12,450 --> 00:27:15,510
Phase B essentially shows
350
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:23,320
multiple areas of tests and testing the
resistance to the upside and testing the
351
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:24,480
support to the downside.
352
00:27:25,980 --> 00:27:32,300
Okay. Well, Rama, I want you to come
back to schematics, right, because I put
353
00:27:32,300 --> 00:27:35,040
there the intentions for each phases
intentionally.
354
00:27:36,140 --> 00:27:42,040
Okay. And I want you to remember those
intentions. So phase B intention is to
355
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,720
define the relationship between supply
and demand.
356
00:27:45,940 --> 00:27:46,940
Yeah.
357
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:51,640
And then sometimes I kind of like think
about this like a war zone.
358
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:56,720
You know, it's going to be extremely
volatile as a zone by itself.
359
00:27:57,580 --> 00:28:01,960
And then another intention behind phase
B is to build a cause.
360
00:28:05,780 --> 00:28:10,080
So those are the intentions behind phase
B. Okay, so where is our phase D?
361
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:13,520
Phase D.
362
00:28:17,660 --> 00:28:23,100
follows the last point of supply,
363
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:28,880
precedes the last point of supply, and
then as the price moves out of the
364
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:29,880
trading range.
365
00:28:30,860 --> 00:28:35,100
The last point of support, just because
we are in the... Sorry, support, sorry,
366
00:28:35,180 --> 00:28:36,180
yeah.
367
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:37,200
Okay.
368
00:28:38,060 --> 00:28:41,220
Okay, so give me the timestamp for Phase
D.
369
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:43,980
Phase D would be...
370
00:28:46,390 --> 00:28:53,350
just beyond the second line you have
drawn to mark the phase C. That's
371
00:28:53,350 --> 00:28:58,130
just after the beginning of the march.
And where is the boundary for that phase
372
00:28:58,130 --> 00:28:59,130
D?
373
00:29:00,690 --> 00:29:03,050
Let's say the boundary between D and E.
374
00:29:04,370 --> 00:29:09,630
The boundary between D and E would be
where
375
00:29:09,630 --> 00:29:12,490
your pointer is situated.
376
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,380
Right there, SS.
377
00:29:16,060 --> 00:29:17,060
Okay. Yeah.
378
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:21,180
All right. And what is the intention
behind Phase D?
379
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:33,520
It's the Phase D marks the beginning of
380
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:40,100
the uptrend as the price exits the
trading range.
381
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:46,400
Okay. So it's a markup? In the trading
range, this is a little bit different
382
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,680
structure where we see an apex
formation.
383
00:29:49,020 --> 00:29:51,560
So apex formations are going to have
different phases.
384
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:53,360
Okay, great.
385
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:59,820
Okay, let's go and look at the
distribution
386
00:29:59,820 --> 00:30:04,460
range. So what catches your eye there?
387
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,500
It's an upsloping trading range.
388
00:30:12,940 --> 00:30:16,920
That's the first feature that strikes
me.
389
00:30:17,380 --> 00:30:23,900
And after that is the buying
390
00:30:23,900 --> 00:30:24,900
climax.
391
00:30:25,300 --> 00:30:31,160
From the price action, I could see...
What is the timestamp for a buying
392
00:30:31,860 --> 00:30:38,640
Just after May, between May and June,
there is a marked
393
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,020
acceleration of the price.
394
00:30:40,620 --> 00:30:43,960
And it's almost a vertical parabolic
rise.
395
00:30:45,100 --> 00:30:51,220
So that's where the buying climax, I
mean, it leads up to the buying climax
396
00:30:51,220 --> 00:30:57,920
and followed by a small
397
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:02,840
pullback, which... Label, label, label
everything for me.
398
00:31:03,180 --> 00:31:07,680
Do not describe what you see because we
see the chart. We understand what's
399
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:12,860
happening. I want you to give me, like,
short answers on the label, all right?
400
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:18,460
So if this is the buying climax, then
the next point, I want you to label all
401
00:31:18,460 --> 00:31:19,960
these points right here. Okay.
402
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:27,200
The next point would be the automatic
reaction.
403
00:31:27,620 --> 00:31:28,620
Mm -hmm.
404
00:31:28,820 --> 00:31:34,420
Okay. Followed by the secondary test.
405
00:31:34,780 --> 00:31:35,800
Okay. Phase?
406
00:31:37,140 --> 00:31:38,140
A.
407
00:31:38,460 --> 00:31:39,460
Okay.
408
00:31:40,020 --> 00:31:45,920
And then followed by phase B where the
price comes and tests.
409
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:52,600
I could see two small tests.
410
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:57,300
Okay, we see that too. So another
secondary area of the secondary test.
411
00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:00,300
Okay, so where is our phase C?
412
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:07,400
Phase C is the point you marked last,
the phase C, yeah.
413
00:32:07,900 --> 00:32:14,900
Okay, so how would we label phase C
here, you know, this attempt to
414
00:32:14,900 --> 00:32:16,360
overcome the previous resistance?
415
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:21,620
I would label that as an upthrust, yeah.
416
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:28,060
Uptrust, and because this is
distribution, so upthrust after
417
00:32:28,300 --> 00:32:33,420
Okay, we want to check on all of the
phases, so phase A.
418
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:41,240
Phase B and phase C, we want phase B to
be the largest, and it seems
419
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,060
like it's almost there. It's almost
there.
420
00:32:44,980 --> 00:32:47,280
Okay, so what comes after phase C?
421
00:32:48,540 --> 00:32:49,540
Phase D.
422
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:56,180
Okay, and specifically with the, you
know, I see that the price drops down to
423
00:32:56,180 --> 00:32:58,000
this level right here. How would we
label it?
424
00:32:58,980 --> 00:33:01,640
A major sign of weakness.
425
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:03,380
Okay, followed by?
426
00:33:04,310 --> 00:33:06,550
the last point of supply.
427
00:33:07,810 --> 00:33:14,770
That comes exactly, guys, look at that.
It comes exactly to the point of the
428
00:33:14,770 --> 00:33:17,810
resistance which acted before as a
support.
429
00:33:18,270 --> 00:33:25,090
Right. So, therefore, you know, this
upsloping labeling makes
430
00:33:25,090 --> 00:33:29,150
a lot of sense because all of the
concepts have fallen to the upsloping
431
00:33:29,150 --> 00:33:30,150
structure.
432
00:33:30,370 --> 00:33:31,370
Okay, great.
433
00:33:31,990 --> 00:33:32,990
Okay.
434
00:33:34,060 --> 00:33:35,200
Rama, any questions?
435
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:36,480
Yeah.
436
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:43,620
I think the intentions, the
437
00:33:43,620 --> 00:33:47,700
point you made about intention is well
taken because I think that's something
438
00:33:47,700 --> 00:33:49,080
that I'm working on.
439
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:51,520
Yeah,
440
00:33:52,700 --> 00:33:53,700
so just...
441
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:58,280
you know go to the schematics go to
those um slides with the schematic in
442
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:02,340
description and there you can find all
of the characteristics for all of the
443
00:34:02,340 --> 00:34:06,460
elements which i think that you're doing
fine with i think maybe intentions a
444
00:34:06,460 --> 00:34:12,840
little bit just to freshen up and um and
then obviously you know we we want the
445
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:18,219
label in here right so sometimes i feel
like Students go into the description,
446
00:34:18,380 --> 00:34:24,460
and my goal is always to stop them
because we could see the chart. Yeah, we
447
00:34:24,460 --> 00:34:29,639
the chart. But what we're interested in
is how do you see the labeling? How do
448
00:34:29,639 --> 00:34:30,639
you see the structure?
449
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:36,580
So, yeah, just brush up on the
intentions, and everything else is fine.
450
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:43,120
Okay. And in the first trading range,
one of the things I noticed is that the
451
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:51,460
of the three lows between March,
February and March, the third
452
00:34:51,460 --> 00:34:52,760
one is the higher low.
453
00:34:54,860 --> 00:34:59,680
The second one is, yeah, the second one
is kind of on the same level. Okay.
454
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:07,520
So is it reasonable to mark that as the
center, the
455
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:09,500
phase C around that higher low?
456
00:35:09,980 --> 00:35:15,520
You know, if you label it like this,
like you originally labeled it, I'm
457
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:20,360
fine because phase C in the
reaccumulation especially would suggest
458
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:25,300
have to come in right here on this bar,
right here on this bar, and initiate the
459
00:35:25,300 --> 00:35:29,300
position, right? So this is your point
entry number one, entry number two.
460
00:35:29,580 --> 00:35:35,180
So from this perspective, from the
trading perspective, does it really
461
00:35:35,180 --> 00:35:36,460
how we label it?
462
00:35:36,720 --> 00:35:40,160
Probably no. As long as you could
understand that.
463
00:35:40,620 --> 00:35:46,500
This is a part of the potential phase C,
therefore the beginning of the
464
00:35:46,500 --> 00:35:47,560
potential upswing.
465
00:35:47,940 --> 00:35:52,720
And, you know, you could definitely
define the points of entry here really
466
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:59,320
So it doesn't, at the end, it wouldn't
really matter, you know, whether you're
467
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:01,120
able to look like this, this, or this.
468
00:36:01,700 --> 00:36:03,620
Okay. Okay, sounds good.
469
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:05,460
Thank you, Rama.
470
00:36:06,100 --> 00:36:07,420
Thank you. Okay.
471
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:12,600
And then let's look at the last trading
range. This one is a little bit
472
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:15,440
difficult, so that's why I'm going to go
through this myself.
473
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:22,840
So we are having a downtrend, clearly
defined climactic action, clearly
474
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,620
change of character in the next rally.
475
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:33,440
It's the largest rally of all of the
rallies that we've seen on the downside.
476
00:36:33,820 --> 00:36:36,360
So here is our automatic rally.
477
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:45,200
have multiple tests, one, two, three,
and then test number four on the
478
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:45,899
way down.
479
00:36:45,900 --> 00:36:52,840
So it seems to me that this rally right
here has the largest rally of them
480
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:55,140
all. So this looks like one swing.
481
00:36:56,660 --> 00:37:02,980
There are some things here that... So
therefore,
482
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:07,640
just to conclude the thought, this looks
like phase A.
483
00:37:08,510 --> 00:37:15,230
In some instances, we would probably say
that this looks like a test of the
484
00:37:15,230 --> 00:37:17,330
climactic action itself as well.
485
00:37:18,050 --> 00:37:23,590
But let's just go with this label, phase
A. So then the next test, which is the
486
00:37:23,590 --> 00:37:27,630
second test, happens in phase B.
487
00:37:28,510 --> 00:37:35,430
And then the next test, somewhere in
this area, number three, that seems to
488
00:37:35,430 --> 00:37:36,510
phase C.
489
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:53,000
So I think I would definitely accept
this type of labeling with kind of like
490
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:59,980
one exception, is that it seems that
phase A is somewhat larger than phase B.
491
00:38:00,300 --> 00:38:05,500
And in some instances, guys,
unfortunately, it's not going to work
492
00:38:05,500 --> 00:38:10,580
this, right? So sometimes the labeling
is just going to be a little bit out of
493
00:38:10,580 --> 00:38:14,860
our usual.
494
00:38:15,580 --> 00:38:16,600
rule interpretation.
495
00:38:17,540 --> 00:38:24,420
And hopefully, you could think of the
trading
496
00:38:24,420 --> 00:38:30,380
value here rather than, you know, more
of the label and style.
497
00:38:32,260 --> 00:38:36,540
In some instances, we could label it
like this, and then that would extend
498
00:38:36,540 --> 00:38:41,110
B. But again, for trading purposes, you
probably wouldn't care that much.
499
00:38:41,510 --> 00:38:45,630
Actually, to be completely frank with
you, I still would be thinking that we
500
00:38:45,630 --> 00:38:47,190
in phase B at this point.
501
00:38:47,690 --> 00:38:51,850
And I would be thinking that we're going
to go and experience some kind of phase
502
00:38:51,850 --> 00:38:53,410
C. But it doesn't happen.
503
00:38:53,890 --> 00:38:59,790
So what do you do? Well, if you miss
this move to the upside and you are
504
00:38:59,790 --> 00:39:03,870
realizing that this could be a sign of
strength, then you're waiting for what?
505
00:39:03,950 --> 00:39:06,510
You're waiting for the backing up
action, which should come where?
506
00:39:07,070 --> 00:39:12,630
It should come to the area of the
support that acted before as the
507
00:39:12,630 --> 00:39:13,630
phases A and B.
508
00:39:14,150 --> 00:39:21,110
So out of this touch and on the
reversal, that's
509
00:39:21,110 --> 00:39:25,910
when you might be thinking, wow, if this
shows me that this is a point of entry,
510
00:39:26,130 --> 00:39:31,290
we might have concluded already all of
the phases here. And this is phase D.
511
00:39:32,310 --> 00:39:36,190
And therefore, you know, I should go in
into this position.
512
00:39:37,060 --> 00:39:42,140
Granted, you're opening the position
much higher than, let's say, in phase C,
513
00:39:42,220 --> 00:39:45,860
and that still acts as a reaccumulation
range for us.
514
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:53,600
But sometimes it's going to be hard to
define those phases, and there
515
00:39:53,600 --> 00:40:00,280
is nothing wrong about this. It's just a
skill building, and sometimes
516
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:03,140
structures develop in a very... weird
way.
517
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:05,640
So you have to rely on concepts.
518
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:07,000
And what are the concepts here?
519
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:08,660
Well, here is one.
520
00:40:10,020 --> 00:40:14,660
Here is this move to the upside that
commits significantly to the upside, has
521
00:40:14,660 --> 00:40:18,600
multiple closes up, and then spends so
much time above.
522
00:40:18,860 --> 00:40:19,980
What does that sound like?
523
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:21,500
Well, a sign of strength.
524
00:40:21,860 --> 00:40:24,300
And then a reaction right into the
support.
525
00:40:24,620 --> 00:40:26,960
What does that sound like? A backnap
action.
526
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:30,060
If this is true, then this is phase D.
527
00:40:31,180 --> 00:40:34,820
And therefore, everything before that
was phase A, B, and C.
528
00:40:36,100 --> 00:40:39,160
Okay, let's have a look at how I label
it.
529
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:46,280
Okay, so I put phase A here at this
test.
530
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:51,400
I'm thinking that still, you know, this
is phase A right here.
531
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,260
But let's just leave it as is.
532
00:40:55,540 --> 00:40:57,880
Okay, let's see what kind of questions
we have.
533
00:41:04,140 --> 00:41:08,300
Why is the trading range not defined by
the lowest point of the automatic
534
00:41:08,300 --> 00:41:12,000
reaction? So we're talking about this
trading range right here.
535
00:41:12,240 --> 00:41:18,940
So, well, we could label this as an
automatic reaction, secondary
536
00:41:18,940 --> 00:41:25,320
test, and you could definitely have the
boundary at this level. Does it come
537
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:28,580
handy after this?
538
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:33,440
Not at all. And we're looking at the
chart that has already unfolded.
539
00:41:33,820 --> 00:41:40,540
So it's a historical chart, right? So we
already know that the price only tests
540
00:41:40,540 --> 00:41:43,900
this area right here and not this one.
541
00:41:44,260 --> 00:41:50,400
And this leads us to the conclusion that
this was an extreme oversold condition.
542
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:56,380
In the extreme oversold condition, price
usually does not have a significant
543
00:41:56,380 --> 00:41:58,100
test at the same level.
544
00:41:59,540 --> 00:42:05,380
And the testing out of the extreme
oversold condition might happen at the
545
00:42:05,380 --> 00:42:12,060
level. So therefore, what's the use of
having this line if the price does not
546
00:42:12,060 --> 00:42:15,540
there? Only when it goes there, you
could just incorporate here.
547
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:21,160
What's more important at secondary test
low is being tested again in phase B and
548
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:25,780
then being tested again in phase C. So
that becomes a significant support.
549
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:29,200
Next question.
550
00:42:29,860 --> 00:42:33,320
Do we care about daily big bull candle?
551
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:37,820
Okay, Eric, right here, this one.
552
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:39,820
Are we still on this trading range?
553
00:42:48,240 --> 00:42:50,140
Okay, yes, of course.
554
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:52,020
We do care about that.
555
00:42:55,740 --> 00:42:57,920
Okay. Eric, I'm confused.
556
00:42:58,940 --> 00:43:02,840
Last look at the trading range at the
right. Okay, so which candle are we
557
00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:03,840
talking about?
558
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:07,980
You have to give me a timestamp. I mean,
there are a lot of big candles here.
559
00:43:10,300 --> 00:43:14,420
Okay, while you're thinking about this,
1991.
560
00:43:15,540 --> 00:43:17,060
Okay, right here.
561
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:22,840
There are multiple big candles here,
probably.
562
00:43:26,290 --> 00:43:27,770
Okay, let me just unmute you.
563
00:43:30,970 --> 00:43:35,650
I don't kind of see that. Okay, so which
candle are we talking about, Eric?
564
00:43:36,810 --> 00:43:39,730
Okay, Roman, do you hear me? Yes.
565
00:43:40,650 --> 00:43:44,950
Okay, my question is why sign of week
instead
566
00:43:44,950 --> 00:43:49,350
of spring?
567
00:43:49,790 --> 00:43:52,150
Or in the phase...
568
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:59,040
Yeah, this is a mistake right here.
Okay, so if we're talking about phase C,
569
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:00,120
this should be a spring.
570
00:44:00,900 --> 00:44:05,720
Oh, I know what happened. Okay, let me
just correct this.
571
00:44:06,620 --> 00:44:12,180
I think this was a slide that I worked
on
572
00:44:12,180 --> 00:44:14,020
afterward.
573
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:21,940
I defined phase C as this one right
here. So this becomes a sign of weakness
574
00:44:21,940 --> 00:44:25,660
B, and then this is phase C. So that
makes sense. Okay.
575
00:44:27,020 --> 00:44:32,420
Although, you know, I don't like that. I
don't like the phase A, phase B
576
00:44:32,420 --> 00:44:37,140
definition here, but phase C could be
something like this, and then that would
577
00:44:37,140 --> 00:44:38,900
make it a sign of weakness.
578
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:41,320
Right?
579
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:44,280
Eric?
580
00:44:45,720 --> 00:44:48,180
Okay, great. I mute myself, sorry.
581
00:44:48,380 --> 00:44:49,380
Okay, no worries.
582
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:53,080
Okay, next question.
583
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:04,960
How would we mark the small reaction
right after the buying climax in the
584
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:08,200
sloping trading range? Okay, so I think
that we're talking about the
585
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:09,640
distributional trading range.
586
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:10,840
Let's look at that.
587
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:15,720
how would we label this small reaction?
588
00:45:17,060 --> 00:45:21,300
I don't think that we could label this
or we should label this, right? Because,
589
00:45:21,300 --> 00:45:27,860
again, think about the swings in the
trading range, right? So we need to
590
00:45:27,860 --> 00:45:33,880
labeling based on the beginning and the
end of the swing, right? So here's the
591
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:35,780
beginning of the swing. This is the
reversal.
592
00:45:36,180 --> 00:45:38,960
This is the end of the swing. This is
the reversal area.
593
00:45:39,240 --> 00:45:41,580
And that would define an automatic
reaction.
594
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:46,460
Do we have any reversals in this area?
595
00:45:48,620 --> 00:45:49,660
I don't see one.
596
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:51,640
Do you?
597
00:45:52,240 --> 00:45:57,700
It has to commute below the significant
bar to the upside.
598
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:04,180
So there is no reversal in this area. So
therefore, we could just say that this
599
00:46:04,180 --> 00:46:05,180
is a buying climax.
600
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:10,300
Sometimes I see a labeling like this,
buying climax, automatic reaction.
601
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:12,040
Secondary test.
602
00:46:12,380 --> 00:46:17,320
That doesn't necessarily make sense to
me. I would rather label it differently.
603
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:22,600
I would rather take this whole area
right here, and I would go into the
604
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:28,500
level, and there I would be thinking,
okay, buying climax, then automatic
605
00:46:28,500 --> 00:46:31,840
reaction, secondary test, phase B, phase
C.
606
00:46:32,140 --> 00:46:37,600
This becomes the distributional
structure with a small cause to push the
607
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:38,740
lower into this low.
608
00:46:40,210 --> 00:46:45,750
So that would make sense to me. But it
wouldn't make sense to me at all to
609
00:46:45,750 --> 00:46:47,850
this as an automatic reaction. Why?
610
00:46:49,490 --> 00:46:54,930
Well, because an automatic reaction
should contain a change of character. Is
611
00:46:54,930 --> 00:46:55,930
this a change of character?
612
00:46:56,390 --> 00:47:01,090
No. This is in line with the previous
reaction that we see. A change of
613
00:47:01,090 --> 00:47:02,490
character has come right here.
614
00:47:02,770 --> 00:47:07,210
So therefore, just based on this, this
is going to be our automatic reaction.
615
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:10,920
All right, next one.
616
00:47:13,720 --> 00:47:15,440
Okay, so that we've answered.
617
00:47:20,740 --> 00:47:27,300
How to read Big Down Spread Candle in
early December of 1991.
618
00:47:30,140 --> 00:47:34,920
Probably 1990, right? This one right
here. That comes from Nilesh.
619
00:47:36,700 --> 00:47:37,700
Okay.
620
00:47:38,300 --> 00:47:42,240
Well, this is just an ending of the
major sign of strength.
621
00:47:44,540 --> 00:47:50,660
And that's it. That's how we would read
it. Obviously, we see that this is the
622
00:47:50,660 --> 00:47:54,640
bar that has increased downspread.
623
00:47:56,840 --> 00:48:01,660
So that suggests that the volume
signature increased here and therefore
624
00:48:01,660 --> 00:48:02,660
coming in.
625
00:48:03,020 --> 00:48:07,200
And usually, you know, at this point,
we're going to see some kind of short
626
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:13,660
-term overbought condition, which brings
mean reversion trade for the
627
00:48:13,660 --> 00:48:14,660
professionals.
628
00:48:14,900 --> 00:48:19,500
So that's where supply is coming from,
the increase of the supply.
629
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:27,440
Okay, next one from Lee.
630
00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:33,340
Is the small rally in the middle of
December of 1990
631
00:48:33,340 --> 00:48:40,220
making traders to enter prematurely
normally? Is there any
632
00:48:40,220 --> 00:48:42,440
method that could use to avoid that?
633
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:45,000
Yeah, I think we've talked about this,
Lee.
634
00:48:45,740 --> 00:48:52,060
Obviously, this breakout is being used
in a lot of methodologies to get into
635
00:48:52,060 --> 00:48:56,060
position, and we see this gap that
suggests that we can.
636
00:48:57,480 --> 00:48:59,440
buyers at this point of time.
637
00:49:00,860 --> 00:49:07,020
So I'm not going to name the
methodologies, but you guys might know
638
00:49:07,020 --> 00:49:08,020
talking about.
639
00:49:08,260 --> 00:49:09,560
How to avoid this?
640
00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:16,880
Well, you know, if you study Wyckoff
structure, you would be thinking of what
641
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:21,760
should come, let's say, after phase C, a
major sign of strength.
642
00:49:22,410 --> 00:49:26,870
But the major sign of strength is going
to be followed by what? By a backing up
643
00:49:26,870 --> 00:49:28,690
action. Where would it come to?
644
00:49:29,030 --> 00:49:33,170
It usually would come to the area of the
support, which acted before as the
645
00:49:33,170 --> 00:49:37,250
resistance. So therefore, when you have
an urge to open this position right
646
00:49:37,250 --> 00:49:40,670
here, and you think that the bias is up,
think about the structure.
647
00:49:41,070 --> 00:49:46,010
If you think that we are in phase D,
then you should be waiting for the
648
00:49:46,010 --> 00:49:46,948
up action.
649
00:49:46,950 --> 00:49:48,670
Another rule of thumb.
650
00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:55,680
is more to the fact that
651
00:49:55,680 --> 00:50:01,680
you want to open your position
652
00:50:01,680 --> 00:50:07,100
after the reaction, not on the breakout.
653
00:50:07,300 --> 00:50:11,900
There are only two spots on the breakout
where we want to open a breakout
654
00:50:11,900 --> 00:50:15,960
position. Number one is right here. This
is going to be a sign of strength bar
655
00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:18,420
point of entry.
656
00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:24,140
And number two is on the breakout of the
backing up action.
657
00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:32,780
And these two of the entry points, one
was defined in the course
658
00:50:32,780 --> 00:50:39,460
by SMI. We've talked about this. And
then this one is just WTC
659
00:50:39,460 --> 00:50:44,940
entry that I've originated for you guys.
And it makes a lot of sense to me
660
00:50:44,940 --> 00:50:51,280
because... At this level, at this
breakout level, there is a lot of supply
661
00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:53,180
is already gone. It's absorbed.
662
00:50:53,460 --> 00:50:55,060
There is nothing left.
663
00:50:56,100 --> 00:51:03,000
Okay, but Lee is actually talking about
this situation right here. So we have
664
00:51:03,000 --> 00:51:10,000
a move to the downside, and then how
would we think about
665
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:12,960
the reversal, right? So it's all...
666
00:51:13,990 --> 00:51:15,370
In the technique now, Lee.
667
00:51:16,050 --> 00:51:19,710
So let's say that we know that this is a
major sign of strength.
668
00:51:20,630 --> 00:51:23,590
Where should it come to? Should it come
to this level?
669
00:51:24,030 --> 00:51:29,290
Should it come maybe to this level? So
we're still not necessarily close to
670
00:51:29,290 --> 00:51:33,390
area. But let's say that we're not
paying attention to that.
671
00:51:33,770 --> 00:51:35,890
Then what should we be paying attention
to?
672
00:51:36,390 --> 00:51:39,930
Well, we need to pay attention to the
reversal itself.
673
00:51:40,530 --> 00:51:41,750
Was this a reversal?
674
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:47,740
Well, it seems like it is a reversal for
maybe bars like this right here. It
675
00:51:47,740 --> 00:51:51,860
seems like, yes, we reversed that area
right here. But are those significant
676
00:51:51,860 --> 00:51:54,540
bars for us to the downside?
677
00:51:55,140 --> 00:51:56,140
Probably not.
678
00:51:56,180 --> 00:52:00,400
What is the significant bar to the
downside? Right here. Have we reversed
679
00:52:00,400 --> 00:52:01,400
with this bar?
680
00:52:02,180 --> 00:52:03,180
No.
681
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:08,600
We would have to overcome $2 here and
close above to reverse it. So therefore,
682
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:11,000
on this bar, especially the last bar.
683
00:52:11,370 --> 00:52:15,270
Look at that gap, small spread,
diminishing spread after this bar.
684
00:52:15,510 --> 00:52:20,230
So that doesn't really act a lot as a
confirmation of that reversal.
685
00:52:20,490 --> 00:52:25,950
Plus, this bar right here most likely
has a volume increase, which suggests an
686
00:52:25,950 --> 00:52:30,050
increase of the supply. So you don't
want to come into this position on that
687
00:52:30,050 --> 00:52:31,050
type of bar.
688
00:52:31,870 --> 00:52:35,790
Okay, we'll talk about the reversal
more, especially in practicum.
689
00:52:36,550 --> 00:52:40,610
But there is no reversal here. But there
is a reversal right here.
690
00:52:41,290 --> 00:52:44,790
Quite a lot of bars are reversing the
last commitment to the downside.
691
00:52:46,610 --> 00:52:47,610
Okay.
692
00:52:49,170 --> 00:52:52,270
All right. Let's go to the next chart.
693
00:52:55,350 --> 00:52:57,490
How are we doing? Four o 'clock. Okay.
694
00:52:59,470 --> 00:53:00,890
Let's talk about sprints.
695
00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:10,860
Originally, Wyckoff did not have a
definition of a spring, if you can
696
00:53:10,860 --> 00:53:17,460
this. The definition of the spring was
added later on by Bob Evans, who was the
697
00:53:17,460 --> 00:53:18,580
apprentice of Wyckoff.
698
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:25,940
When Wyckoff passed in 1934, Bob Evans
inherited the
699
00:53:25,940 --> 00:53:31,140
Stock Market Institute, and he produced
a number of
700
00:53:31,140 --> 00:53:34,920
great material points.
701
00:53:35,630 --> 00:53:36,770
about the methodology.
702
00:53:37,690 --> 00:53:43,870
I think, you know, actually Bob Evans
was kind of like a godsend to the
703
00:53:43,870 --> 00:53:50,410
methodology, for the methodology not to
die after the 1930s, 40s,
704
00:53:50,410 --> 00:53:53,650
and to continue the studies.
705
00:53:53,890 --> 00:53:58,290
And he added a lot to the material. One
of the additions was the definition of
706
00:53:58,290 --> 00:54:00,370
the Supreme. Usually Wyckoff would...
707
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:05,420
refer to the sprint action as a shakeout
or a terminal shakeout.
708
00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:11,600
Bob Evans added the definition of the
sprint, but he went even further than
709
00:54:11,600 --> 00:54:17,060
this. He gave the definition, he defined
different types of sprints.
710
00:54:17,540 --> 00:54:19,340
So let's look at those definitions.
711
00:54:20,240 --> 00:54:24,460
The first type of sprint is sprint
number three.
712
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:30,670
This is probably the most favorable
sprint where there is just an attempt or
713
00:54:30,670 --> 00:54:34,750
temporary price commitment below a
trading range support level.
714
00:54:35,050 --> 00:54:40,210
So we kind of could see here how the
price commits to the downside, but it's
715
00:54:40,210 --> 00:54:41,210
substantial.
716
00:54:42,370 --> 00:54:48,570
And it happens on a relatively low
volume signature. So relative to
717
00:54:48,570 --> 00:54:55,450
that we've seen before since Phase A
absorption here in Apple, we see that
718
00:54:55,450 --> 00:54:58,030
is... one of the lowest supply
signatures.
719
00:54:58,450 --> 00:55:03,390
And it only temporarily commits the next
day, comes back into the trading range.
720
00:55:03,590 --> 00:55:09,490
So this is how spring number three would
look like. Spring number three, we
721
00:55:09,490 --> 00:55:14,290
would buy on the return into the trading
range. So by itself, a return into the
722
00:55:14,290 --> 00:55:18,270
trading range would be defined as the
first point of entry for us.
723
00:55:20,430 --> 00:55:27,040
Spring number two is going to have the
same principle behind it, but
724
00:55:27,040 --> 00:55:33,080
it's going to be associated more with
weak hands panic, mini panic rather,
725
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:39,180
where supply signature will increase and
therefore the volume signature overall
726
00:55:39,180 --> 00:55:46,000
will increase, but it's not necessarily
going to be as high as phase A signature
727
00:55:46,000 --> 00:55:49,820
or maybe phase B shakeout type of
reactions.
728
00:55:50,660 --> 00:55:52,320
It also might have
729
00:55:54,060 --> 00:55:59,380
a little bit more profound commitment to
the downside with multiple closes to
730
00:55:59,380 --> 00:56:06,240
the downside usually maybe two or um you
know a more significant penetration
731
00:56:06,240 --> 00:56:12,580
of the support so we could see both from
the price and the
732
00:56:12,580 --> 00:56:19,540
supply signature that it's more
substantial but yet the um effect of
733
00:56:19,540 --> 00:56:24,620
the spring is the same the price quickly
comes back into the trading range.
734
00:56:26,040 --> 00:56:32,180
And we see that it was just an attempt
to commit to the downside and it failed.
735
00:56:32,380 --> 00:56:36,060
So in a way, spring acts as a failed
signal.
736
00:56:36,380 --> 00:56:42,020
And I mentioned to you guys before that
the failed signal in technical analysis
737
00:56:42,020 --> 00:56:44,940
is one of the best signals.
738
00:56:45,640 --> 00:56:52,090
Why? Well, because a failed signal
usually is gonna cause A lot of people,
739
00:56:52,310 --> 00:56:56,790
weak hands, on the wrong side of the
trade, what you think they're going to
740
00:56:56,790 --> 00:57:00,530
as the price comes back into the trading
range, they're going to try to close
741
00:57:00,530 --> 00:57:07,430
this position, making it a market order
to
742
00:57:07,430 --> 00:57:12,410
buy, which will push the price through
the trading range into the sign of
743
00:57:12,410 --> 00:57:14,850
strength. And that's what we see here.
744
00:57:15,370 --> 00:57:21,920
And then screen number one is something
that, I absolutely
745
00:57:21,920 --> 00:57:26,660
don't like. I don't think it should be
in the methodology, but because it is,
746
00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:31,480
you know, it's kind of like a legacy
concept, so I kind of have to teach it,
747
00:57:31,480 --> 00:57:35,860
I'm obviously teaching it in my own way,
stating that it shouldn't be there.
748
00:57:38,900 --> 00:57:44,840
Sprint number one is basically a failure
of a sprint to materialize.
749
00:57:45,240 --> 00:57:51,760
and a price breakdown below a trading
level support on substantial volume,
750
00:57:52,420 --> 00:57:57,320
that creates a sign of weakness in the
distribution.
751
00:57:57,620 --> 00:58:03,080
So effectively, where sprint number one
is a sign of weakness in the
752
00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:08,540
distribution, and therefore, could we
even discuss it here? Probably not. And
753
00:58:08,540 --> 00:58:12,180
that's kind of like my thing about
sprint number one.
754
00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:16,240
It should not be in the method. It
should not be discussed as a sprint. It
755
00:58:16,240 --> 00:58:21,340
should not be discussed as part of the
potential accumulation structure.
756
00:58:22,080 --> 00:58:27,580
All right. As usual, this slide is, you
know, for your homework.
757
00:58:27,980 --> 00:58:31,020
Print it out. Put it into your library
of slides.
758
00:58:31,660 --> 00:58:33,980
Study it. You know, look at the
examples.
759
00:58:34,540 --> 00:58:37,320
Try to find sprints somewhere else on
other examples.
760
00:58:39,690 --> 00:58:46,330
All right, let's go to the next slide.
And this one I'll do
761
00:58:46,330 --> 00:58:53,070
by myself. This is an easy one, right?
So we have a climactic run. Again, look
762
00:58:53,070 --> 00:58:55,690
at this reaction and then move to the
upside.
763
00:58:56,010 --> 00:59:01,370
The question here, well, could we label
this as a bind climax, automatic rally,
764
00:59:01,610 --> 00:59:07,730
secondary test that belongs to this
whole formation?
765
00:59:08,380 --> 00:59:09,780
No, we can't. Why?
766
00:59:10,040 --> 00:59:15,220
Well, because this reaction is in line
with previous reactions that we've seen
767
00:59:15,220 --> 00:59:18,980
before. So therefore, this is not a
change of character.
768
00:59:21,380 --> 00:59:26,680
And if it's not a change of character,
then this is probably just a small
769
00:59:26,680 --> 00:59:32,500
distributional pattern that we see that
creates the causality to push the price
770
00:59:32,500 --> 00:59:37,040
lower into the lows of a true change of
character.
771
00:59:38,090 --> 00:59:44,350
This is the reaction that is nothing
like we've seen before on the way up. So
772
00:59:44,350 --> 00:59:51,310
therefore, if this is a change of
character, then it's located between
773
00:59:51,310 --> 00:59:53,870
the buying climax and automatic
reaction.
774
00:59:55,810 --> 01:00:01,190
And therefore, we could label this area
as a buying climax trading range with
775
01:00:01,190 --> 01:00:03,030
the characteristics of the climactic
run.
776
01:00:03,290 --> 01:00:04,430
And then...
777
01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:11,280
The first move to the downside, and
looking again historically at this
778
01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:16,160
I would say that characteristics of this
move to the downside with the
779
01:00:16,160 --> 01:00:22,880
increasing downspread and increasing
volume signature suggest
780
01:00:22,880 --> 01:00:28,940
that this is more of the climactic
nature. This is more of the shakeout
781
01:00:28,940 --> 01:00:34,240
nature. So I would label this as a
shakeout. The first reaction up.
782
01:00:34,240 --> 01:00:35,240
rally.
783
01:00:35,440 --> 01:00:41,200
Then look at the test, decreasing
spread, decreasing volume.
784
01:00:42,980 --> 01:00:46,340
So that looks like a secondary test.
Therefore, phase A.
785
01:00:47,300 --> 01:00:51,260
And then we're going into phase B and
into phase C.
786
01:00:51,660 --> 01:00:54,480
Now, I always ask you guys a question.
787
01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:59,520
What do you see? What catches your eye a
lot?
788
01:01:01,280 --> 01:01:02,280
Well,
789
01:01:03,340 --> 01:01:07,040
Couple of things that definitely catch
my eye.
790
01:01:07,580 --> 01:01:13,240
The first one is the move to the
downside, the last move to the downside.
791
01:01:13,240 --> 01:01:19,300
reminds me a lot of the initial move to
the downside because it has some kind of
792
01:01:19,300 --> 01:01:25,120
fear built in. All of the previous
reactions, it seems like, yes, the price
793
01:01:25,120 --> 01:01:30,680
down, but maybe not so much as on the
first and the last reaction right here.
794
01:01:31,610 --> 01:01:37,510
Also, I'm looking at the character, and
I see that even though the distance to
795
01:01:37,510 --> 01:01:44,310
the downside increases, the downspread
is actually
796
01:01:44,310 --> 01:01:48,090
decreasing, especially in the second
portion of this decline.
797
01:01:48,670 --> 01:01:55,030
So these are the possible
characteristics of Phase C. Okay, well,
798
01:01:55,030 --> 01:01:57,530
double -check that this is Phase C?
799
01:01:57,850 --> 01:02:01,030
Well, what comes next after Phase C?
800
01:02:01,400 --> 01:02:06,460
a sign of strength, and a sign of
strength should show us the commitment
801
01:02:06,460 --> 01:02:13,440
upside, excuse me, definitionally should
go, the sign of strength really
802
01:02:13,440 --> 01:02:18,120
should start at the low phase C, go
through this whole trading range, commit
803
01:02:18,120 --> 01:02:24,200
the upside, and then spend some time
above this resistance and then back up
804
01:02:24,200 --> 01:02:30,240
exactly into the area of the support
which acted before the resistance.
805
01:02:31,180 --> 01:02:32,840
We have all of those elements.
806
01:02:33,120 --> 01:02:39,920
And if you are not sure whether this is
a major sign of strength or a
807
01:02:39,920 --> 01:02:44,000
backing up action, then look at the
characteristics of the rise to the
808
01:02:44,180 --> 01:02:49,560
Obviously, the largest rally is number
one. But look at the volume increase and
809
01:02:49,560 --> 01:02:52,420
specifically demand increase behind this
rally.
810
01:02:52,840 --> 01:02:57,260
So that looks very constructive. And
then the backing up action just
811
01:02:57,480 --> 01:03:03,280
By the way, that question that Justin
had at the top of the hour, at the top
812
01:03:03,280 --> 01:03:03,899
the class.
813
01:03:03,900 --> 01:03:09,180
Could the backing up action only be on
the diminution volume signature, or
814
01:03:09,180 --> 01:03:14,220
we have the increase of the volume
signature? Well, here it is, an increase
815
01:03:14,220 --> 01:03:19,400
the volume signature, and the price
actually goes down. So we can't open
816
01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:24,980
position here until we actually have the
test that exhibits
817
01:03:24,980 --> 01:03:28,180
structural high or low.
818
01:03:28,720 --> 01:03:33,660
and exhibits diminishing supply
signature right here.
819
01:03:35,860 --> 01:03:41,380
So that would be our confirmation. Plus
it comes to the area of the resistance,
820
01:03:41,500 --> 01:03:46,700
so just a really, really perfect blend
in there. So here is our labeling here.
821
01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:48,840
C,
822
01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:53,420
A, B, and then...
823
01:03:55,360 --> 01:03:59,060
Phase C would be labeled just because
this is not the lowest low.
824
01:03:59,840 --> 01:04:04,140
It's a higher low. We label it as the
last point of support.
825
01:04:07,160 --> 01:04:08,160
Okay.
826
01:04:10,180 --> 01:04:15,100
Here's my labeling. You could just go
through this labeling at home.
827
01:04:16,940 --> 01:04:20,280
Okay, let's talk about upsloping and
downsloping ranges.
828
01:04:21,180 --> 01:04:27,080
So students were asking me, what are the
rules as to how you create upsloping,
829
01:04:27,200 --> 01:04:28,580
downsloping ranges?
830
01:04:29,200 --> 01:04:35,540
I kind of explained to you guys how I
did this on the previous
831
01:04:35,540 --> 01:04:36,540
slides.
832
01:04:37,940 --> 01:04:40,940
That was my answer to Philip's question,
I believe.
833
01:04:41,740 --> 01:04:45,940
So let's look really quickly at the
bottom chart.
834
01:04:46,180 --> 01:04:49,840
And this is a downsloping reaccumulation
trading range.
835
01:04:50,520 --> 01:04:52,400
So we're seeing the climactic run.
836
01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:59,260
And then look at the downtrend. And look
at this rally right here. This rally
837
01:04:59,260 --> 01:05:04,100
acts as a better rally than anything
else. So that's a change of character.
838
01:05:04,320 --> 01:05:07,800
At this point of time, you would be
thinking we're going to be in the
839
01:05:07,800 --> 01:05:08,800
trading range.
840
01:05:08,900 --> 01:05:10,180
And we actually...
841
01:05:21,370 --> 01:05:22,370
Apologies.
842
01:05:23,630 --> 01:05:30,270
We actually see how the price finds the
support on the next low, tries to rally,
843
01:05:30,450 --> 01:05:33,350
but not a lot of good demand.
844
01:05:33,550 --> 01:05:39,350
So it starts to go down again, and this
is where supply and demand increase at
845
01:05:39,350 --> 01:05:40,350
the same time.
846
01:05:40,930 --> 01:05:46,350
But we're still deviating around the
mean in the same structure. So now the
847
01:05:46,350 --> 01:05:50,650
structure has expanded because of this
low. So now we're still in the
848
01:05:51,080 --> 01:05:53,080
We still would be thinking horizontal
structure.
849
01:05:53,360 --> 01:06:00,260
But at the same time, we would be maybe
thinking we have lower highs,
850
01:06:00,520 --> 01:06:01,640
we have lower lows.
851
01:06:02,040 --> 01:06:07,040
This is the scenario where in this type
of trading range, with the lower highs,
852
01:06:07,080 --> 01:06:10,820
lower lows, we might be considering a
downsloping structure.
853
01:06:11,140 --> 01:06:17,960
So we would define the lows, one, two,
and then have this
854
01:06:17,960 --> 01:06:19,700
downsloping line.
855
01:06:20,270 --> 01:06:26,410
And then we could use significant Weike
points to define
856
01:06:26,410 --> 01:06:31,210
next lines that we need to use, right?
So for instance, this was a very
857
01:06:31,210 --> 01:06:32,210
important line.
858
01:06:32,850 --> 01:06:39,830
So please note how both the sprain or
shakeout in phase C has
859
01:06:39,830 --> 01:06:45,050
been defined by those lines. That's
number one. And how the sign of strength
860
01:06:45,050 --> 01:06:47,750
the backing up action have been defined.
861
01:06:48,320 --> 01:06:51,440
have been defined by this line.
862
01:06:54,900 --> 01:06:59,880
Isn't it more effective from trading
point of view to take this trading range
863
01:06:59,880 --> 01:07:02,360
trends? There is a substantial distance
travel.
864
01:07:03,320 --> 01:07:09,360
If the goal, Philip, is to trade this
area right here, then yes,
865
01:07:09,600 --> 01:07:12,500
definitely. You would be thinking
that...
866
01:07:12,840 --> 01:07:18,180
This is a definition of the downtrend as
lower highs and lower lows unfold.
867
01:07:19,060 --> 01:07:24,400
Unfortunately, in the context of a much
larger trend, this is just a
868
01:07:24,400 --> 01:07:30,260
reaccumulation. And we don't necessarily
want to trade to the downside in the
869
01:07:30,260 --> 01:07:35,500
reaccumulation. Unless, and just quickly
write down, you know, what is your
870
01:07:35,500 --> 01:07:38,380
timeframe, you know, that you trade.
871
01:07:39,070 --> 01:07:44,010
Unless you are a very, very short -term
oriented trader. So for instance, you
872
01:07:44,010 --> 01:07:48,690
are maybe like two to three days in a
position, maybe a week.
873
01:07:48,930 --> 01:07:55,730
Then you could say, okay, I see that we
have, let's say after phase B,
874
01:07:55,910 --> 01:08:02,830
we come to the area of the support on
the climactic run, then on the retest
875
01:08:02,830 --> 01:08:04,870
of that, and then it fails.
876
01:08:05,210 --> 01:08:07,830
So here I could initiate the trade.
877
01:08:08,330 --> 01:08:10,550
with the target zone somewhere here.
878
01:08:11,450 --> 01:08:13,470
So then you could trade that.
879
01:08:15,730 --> 01:08:21,170
And probably your first target and first
exit is going to be somewhere here, and
880
01:08:21,170 --> 01:08:24,490
then the second target and second exit
is going to be somewhere here.
881
01:08:25,630 --> 01:08:27,910
So from that perspective, you could do
this.
882
01:08:28,210 --> 01:08:33,290
But we're looking at the overall
structure, right? So an overall
883
01:08:33,290 --> 01:08:37,420
dictates that we are actually in the
reaccumulation.
884
01:08:37,680 --> 01:08:41,840
And if this is a reaccumulation, we're
trying to define what kind of range we
885
01:08:41,840 --> 01:08:47,359
have. Horizontal does not work that
well, but downsloping range works
886
01:08:47,359 --> 01:08:48,359
well.
887
01:08:48,520 --> 01:08:54,399
In the downsloping, upsloping range, one
of the confirmation that this works is
888
01:08:54,399 --> 01:08:57,359
in the definition of the sign of
strength and sign of weakness.
889
01:08:57,720 --> 01:09:03,140
We want to see the overcoming of the
resistance in the reaccumulation on the
890
01:09:03,140 --> 01:09:04,260
sign of strength rally.
891
01:09:04,500 --> 01:09:09,670
And then, a backing up action that comes
exactly to this area of the support,
892
01:09:09,910 --> 01:09:11,830
which acted before as the resistance.
893
01:09:12,210 --> 01:09:14,590
The same in the upsloping structure.
894
01:09:14,950 --> 01:09:21,229
We would take the low in phase A,
connect it either to the low in phase B
895
01:09:21,229 --> 01:09:27,109
phase C, in this case phase C, and then
use the parallel lines that we could
896
01:09:27,109 --> 01:09:32,069
project from the automatic reaction and
the upthrust action.
897
01:09:32,390 --> 01:09:39,270
And if we see that the rally off the
lows in phase C, overcomes those points
898
01:09:39,270 --> 01:09:45,029
of resistance that were created in
phases A and B, and the price commits
899
01:09:45,029 --> 01:09:51,590
spends time above that resistance, and
then backs down exactly to the area of
900
01:09:51,590 --> 01:09:55,410
the support, then we would be thinking
that this is a confirmation of the sign
901
01:09:55,410 --> 01:09:59,170
of strength, which is being shown to us
in the backing up action.
902
01:10:00,290 --> 01:10:03,910
So the procedure is the same, right?
903
01:10:04,700 --> 01:10:11,700
We're still going to be looking at
change of character, defining
904
01:10:11,700 --> 01:10:18,420
the trading ranges, and then once we
start seeing higher highs,
905
01:10:18,820 --> 01:10:24,940
higher lows for the upsloping range, or
lower highs, lower lows for the
906
01:10:24,940 --> 01:10:29,720
downsloping range, that's when we'll
start projecting different
907
01:10:29,720 --> 01:10:33,460
scenarios here for the structure.
908
01:10:35,309 --> 01:10:41,510
And again, you could read all of this
right here and just go through all of
909
01:10:41,510 --> 01:10:46,210
this. It just has more explanation, so
something for the homework.
910
01:10:53,110 --> 01:10:57,130
All right, let's go to the next chart.
911
01:10:57,370 --> 01:11:00,330
Okay, so this one is easy too, so let me
just go through this.
912
01:11:01,290 --> 01:11:03,330
Kind of reminds me of...
913
01:11:04,170 --> 01:11:09,230
Well, we've seen this, right? So we've
seen this. And here, the same, I think
914
01:11:09,230 --> 01:11:10,610
this is the same slide, right?
915
01:11:10,910 --> 01:11:16,690
The same trading range. You could use an
upsloping structure, but in this case,
916
01:11:16,710 --> 01:11:20,450
I'm just using conventional horizontal
lines.
917
01:11:20,950 --> 01:11:26,210
A downtrend, which leads to the
climactic action, well -defined on the
918
01:11:26,210 --> 01:11:30,850
reaction to the downside with the price
and the volume increase signature.
919
01:11:31,610 --> 01:11:33,110
So that's very evident.
920
01:11:33,550 --> 01:11:38,130
Right away, we think what comes next, a
change of character or the automatic
921
01:11:38,130 --> 01:11:42,550
reaction rally, and then it's being
followed by a secondary test.
922
01:11:42,810 --> 01:11:47,190
Please note how in all of these
instances, secondary tests at the end of
923
01:11:47,190 --> 01:11:53,910
reaction has this decreasing downspread
signature and also
924
01:11:53,910 --> 01:11:58,330
decreasing volume signature or
decreasing supply signature.
925
01:12:00,330 --> 01:12:04,910
test the supply level that was at the
climactic action, and we could see that
926
01:12:04,910 --> 01:12:08,150
the test, there's really not a lot of
supply left.
927
01:12:08,850 --> 01:12:15,710
And then a very common upthrust action
in phase B, which is
928
01:12:15,710 --> 01:12:21,930
being followed by laborious decline into
phase C. And this laborious decline,
929
01:12:22,010 --> 01:12:26,030
this is something that we like to see
going into phase C.
930
01:12:26,690 --> 01:12:32,760
It suggests that Weak hands are selling,
but strong hands are already buying.
931
01:12:33,240 --> 01:12:37,360
And that's why it becomes such a
laborious move to the upside.
932
01:12:37,660 --> 01:12:40,520
We could see some buying behind the
volume signature.
933
01:12:40,980 --> 01:12:45,680
And we're still seeing, you know, maybe
like a slight deterioration of the
934
01:12:45,680 --> 01:12:48,520
supply going into potential phase C.
935
01:12:49,100 --> 01:12:55,640
It creates a higher low, which suggests
that the downward result is diminished
936
01:12:55,640 --> 01:12:56,640
significantly.
937
01:12:57,269 --> 01:13:03,870
And with that, we're thinking that the
bias is going to be to the upside.
938
01:13:06,070 --> 01:13:12,130
I would probably put the boundary for
phase C somewhere here.
939
01:13:13,030 --> 01:13:17,990
Why here? Well, because there are
multiple tests in phase B that are being
940
01:13:17,990 --> 01:13:23,450
violated in this area. So this is the
first time where those tests are
941
01:13:23,450 --> 01:13:30,320
happening. So therefore, with the
intention behind... phase c to test to
942
01:13:30,320 --> 01:13:37,140
produce that final test at the point of
the support we have seen
943
01:13:37,140 --> 01:13:44,100
that the support in phase b is somewhere
here so we're trying to identify the
944
01:13:44,100 --> 01:13:48,900
boundaries as that initial test of that
support so therefore your boundary is
945
01:13:48,900 --> 01:13:53,380
going to be there the next rally is very
evident it commits above
946
01:13:54,190 --> 01:13:59,290
any of the levels of the resistance so
therefore uh it's a major sign of
947
01:13:59,290 --> 01:14:05,530
strength and then we're seeing you know
an accumulation range again here we
948
01:14:05,530 --> 01:14:12,250
would be thinking phase c sign of
strength uh lps so backing up action at
949
01:14:12,250 --> 01:14:18,910
point um phase a phase b up thrust
action so
950
01:14:18,910 --> 01:14:21,650
everything looks to be normal and then
951
01:14:22,559 --> 01:14:28,100
Phase D is going to conclude, of the
larger range, is going to be concluded
952
01:14:28,120 --> 01:14:31,200
you know, phase D of the smaller range.
So let's have a look.
953
01:14:34,480 --> 01:14:40,560
All right. And what else could we
mention here?
954
01:14:41,160 --> 01:14:47,960
Okay, so a question from Ronnie. If A is
point number one and phase
955
01:14:47,960 --> 01:14:53,290
C is point number three, What did you
find as point number two on slide number
956
01:14:53,290 --> 01:14:54,290
five?
957
01:14:56,410 --> 01:15:02,510
Okay, so A is
958
01:15:02,510 --> 01:15:04,830
test number one,
959
01:15:06,130 --> 01:15:08,070
right? Test number one.
960
01:15:08,850 --> 01:15:12,790
And then phase C is test number three.
961
01:15:14,010 --> 01:15:17,290
Then where is our test number two? Well,
all of those tests.
962
01:15:17,950 --> 01:15:24,870
right here in phase b those are number
two tests so again think in terms of
963
01:15:24,870 --> 01:15:31,730
the texture right so here is texture
number one in phase a
964
01:15:31,730 --> 01:15:38,430
then we have a texture um in phase c
which is basically a trading
965
01:15:38,430 --> 01:15:44,770
range of its own we have a selling
climax automatic rally secondary test
966
01:15:44,770 --> 01:15:51,320
up thrust action and then its own phase
C. So this looks like its own formation.
967
01:15:51,780 --> 01:15:53,820
And then what remains?
968
01:15:54,180 --> 01:15:56,960
Well, it seems like these three spots
remain.
969
01:15:57,360 --> 01:15:59,400
And they look the same.
970
01:16:00,060 --> 01:16:06,860
Why? Well, because the reactions to
these lows look somewhat the same.
971
01:16:07,040 --> 01:16:13,000
They are in the context of the uptrend,
short -term uptrend that we see as well.
972
01:16:13,870 --> 01:16:15,690
and then belong to the same phase.
973
01:16:15,910 --> 01:16:22,710
So this is just a series of multiple
tests, a multiple test
974
01:16:22,710 --> 01:16:25,650
number two in phase B.
975
01:16:26,030 --> 01:16:28,550
By the way, guys, think about this.
976
01:16:29,430 --> 01:16:36,250
If you are observing this type of the
behavior in phase B, what could
977
01:16:36,250 --> 01:16:40,210
we conclude about the bias of this
formation?
978
01:16:42,540 --> 01:16:45,300
Well, it's probably going to be to the
upside. Why?
979
01:16:46,420 --> 01:16:51,560
Well, look at how the tests in phase B
are happening at the higher lows.
980
01:16:53,000 --> 01:16:57,280
Because it happens at the higher lows,
this is a point of strength.
981
01:16:57,680 --> 01:16:59,420
Why is this a point of strength?
982
01:17:01,160 --> 01:17:06,240
Well, think about the institutions here,
right? So someone's selling, but then
983
01:17:06,240 --> 01:17:09,740
someone's coming in and still produces
some buys.
984
01:17:10,640 --> 01:17:17,320
So institutions are buyers in phase B
985
01:17:17,320 --> 01:17:20,060
at higher lows.
986
01:17:22,040 --> 01:17:24,060
This suggests strength.
987
01:17:24,480 --> 01:17:31,220
And even though phase C actually
violates those lows, it just
988
01:17:31,220 --> 01:17:36,000
gives us an indication that whatever
institutions bought at this point of
989
01:17:36,000 --> 01:17:42,650
on those lows, they are... they are in
the vicinity of those large institutions
990
01:17:42,650 --> 01:17:48,210
that were biased on the way down right
here and here. And by the way, if we
991
01:17:48,210 --> 01:17:52,890
would look at the value zone, right? So
look at this value zone right here.
992
01:17:53,390 --> 01:17:58,870
It's right in this area where we saw
some buying before.
993
01:17:59,190 --> 01:18:02,370
This becomes just an extreme oversold.
994
01:18:04,010 --> 01:18:09,370
And then, again, once the price comes
back to the value zone, again, we're
995
01:18:09,370 --> 01:18:12,390
seeing a lot of buying at the same
price.
996
01:18:13,410 --> 01:18:18,810
And all of the springs that happen, like
this spring right here, below this
997
01:18:18,810 --> 01:18:23,250
value zone, happens really fast, commits
to the downside, and then recovers
998
01:18:23,250 --> 01:18:29,690
fast. So all of the elements of
institutional buying at the specific
999
01:18:29,690 --> 01:18:30,690
value.
1000
01:18:33,260 --> 01:18:34,260
Okay, great.
1001
01:18:35,040 --> 01:18:37,100
Let's talk about the sign of strength.
1002
01:18:37,440 --> 01:18:41,460
So I've already mentioned it many times
today.
1003
01:18:43,280 --> 01:18:47,080
Sign of strength, the definition of the
sign of strength. And this is something
1004
01:18:47,080 --> 01:18:49,440
that I want you to definitely remember.
1005
01:18:50,440 --> 01:18:55,740
And a little bit of history as to how
this definition comes about.
1006
01:18:55,980 --> 01:19:01,020
So I put here pure Romanism, so this
means that it comes from me.
1007
01:19:02,600 --> 01:19:08,100
The problem with the sign of strength in
the methodology was that it was defined
1008
01:19:08,100 --> 01:19:14,180
as a sign of strength was defined as a
sign of strength bar.
1009
01:19:14,900 --> 01:19:20,620
And usually when I would ask a student
to define a sign of strength,
1010
01:19:20,900 --> 01:19:27,640
they would usually say, well, it's a bar
that has an
1011
01:19:27,640 --> 01:19:31,340
increasing spread to the upside and
increasing volume signature.
1012
01:19:32,300 --> 01:19:36,740
And that was kind of like a definition
for the sign of strength. Well, first of
1013
01:19:36,740 --> 01:19:41,800
all, that's not necessarily a definition
of a sign of strength.
1014
01:19:43,580 --> 01:19:48,060
It could be even a definition of a sign
of strength bar.
1015
01:19:48,580 --> 01:19:49,700
It's a characteristic.
1016
01:19:50,720 --> 01:19:56,980
We know that the characteristics of the
sign of strength bar are going to be
1017
01:19:56,980 --> 01:20:01,440
exactly that, increasing upspread and
increasing volume signature.
1018
01:20:02,410 --> 01:20:06,810
But it's not necessarily a definition
for a sign of strength rally.
1019
01:20:08,810 --> 01:20:15,490
So let's look at this. A sign of
strength bar is going to be this, right?
1020
01:20:15,490 --> 01:20:22,470
that is increasing in spread and
increasing in the
1021
01:20:22,470 --> 01:20:23,470
volume signature.
1022
01:20:25,230 --> 01:20:30,470
This bar does not qualify as a sign of
strength rally.
1023
01:20:31,180 --> 01:20:37,660
A sign of strength rally definition is
going to be a rally that travels off the
1024
01:20:37,660 --> 01:20:44,360
lows in phase C throughout the whole
range that commits above the area of the
1025
01:20:44,360 --> 01:20:49,740
resistance that was created by phases A
and B. So we see that commitment right
1026
01:20:49,740 --> 01:20:56,600
here. That spends time above that area
or in this area.
1027
01:20:56,700 --> 01:20:59,520
And then that has a backing up action.
1028
01:21:00,030 --> 01:21:05,850
that comes exactly to the area of the
support that
1029
01:21:05,850 --> 01:21:11,690
acted before as the resistance and was
created in phases A and B.
1030
01:21:12,330 --> 01:21:16,030
And that's the definition of the sign of
strength, rally.
1031
01:21:16,550 --> 01:21:21,630
So this I definitely want you to
remember because I will be asking you
1032
01:21:21,630 --> 01:21:24,630
times, what is the definition of the
sign of strength?
1033
01:21:24,850 --> 01:21:26,670
What is the definition of the upthrust?
1034
01:21:27,560 --> 01:21:29,580
And you should remember this by heart.
1035
01:21:32,900 --> 01:21:33,900
All right.
1036
01:21:34,340 --> 01:21:39,540
What else? So a big difference between a
sign of strength and a sign of rally
1037
01:21:39,540 --> 01:21:40,800
and a sign of strength bar.
1038
01:21:41,660 --> 01:21:46,380
So in all of the cases, what we're
looking for is the commitment, right? So
1039
01:21:46,380 --> 01:21:51,560
commitment to the upside if this is a
sign of strength.
1040
01:21:54,480 --> 01:21:56,480
Off the lows in phase C.
1041
01:21:56,970 --> 01:22:01,890
through the trading range, commitment to
the upside, and then a backing up
1042
01:22:01,890 --> 01:22:08,130
action that comes exactly to the area of
the support that acted before
1043
01:22:08,130 --> 01:22:09,410
as the resistance.
1044
01:22:13,270 --> 01:22:14,590
All right, great.
1045
01:22:17,690 --> 01:22:22,670
Okay, so this one is interesting. So
let's have a volunteer just say yes, and
1046
01:22:22,670 --> 01:22:23,670
I'll unmute you.
1047
01:22:26,470 --> 01:22:28,410
And especially the first trading range.
1048
01:22:29,010 --> 01:22:34,490
I wonder, guys, how you would be looking
at that, how you would define that.
1049
01:22:34,830 --> 01:22:35,950
Okay, so volunteer.
1050
01:22:42,090 --> 01:22:47,410
No volunteers.
1051
01:22:48,010 --> 01:22:51,110
All right, Nilesh. Okay, let's go to
you.
1052
01:22:56,940 --> 01:22:57,940
How are you doing?
1053
01:22:58,480 --> 01:23:01,900
Say again your name so that I would
pronounce it correctly.
1054
01:23:03,060 --> 01:23:05,280
Nilesh. Nilesh. Okay, great.
1055
01:23:05,880 --> 01:23:11,540
Okay, so Nilesh, trading range number
one, how would we label it? What catches
1056
01:23:11,540 --> 01:23:12,540
your eye?
1057
01:23:13,400 --> 01:23:20,380
So beginning of September, that seems to
me like a ceiling climax.
1058
01:23:24,590 --> 01:23:26,590
Price tried to go down.
1059
01:23:28,270 --> 01:23:29,990
Price first goes up.
1060
01:23:30,490 --> 01:23:34,590
Right. So what is this initial move to
the upside then?
1061
01:23:35,250 --> 01:23:36,950
That's the automatic reaction.
1062
01:23:37,330 --> 01:23:40,510
And then it's kind of combined into a
single bar, I would say.
1063
01:23:41,130 --> 01:23:45,430
The selling climax as well as the
automatic reaction happened kind of on
1064
01:23:45,430 --> 01:23:47,990
same day. That's how I think I would
interpret that.
1065
01:23:48,250 --> 01:23:51,470
Yes, that's totally correct. The same
day exhibits both.
1066
01:23:52,190 --> 01:23:54,190
Selling climax and automatic rally.
1067
01:23:54,590 --> 01:24:00,050
Okay. So then the next reaction and the
next low as a high low could be labeled
1068
01:24:00,050 --> 01:24:01,870
as? Secondary test.
1069
01:24:02,210 --> 01:24:03,210
And that defines?
1070
01:24:03,990 --> 01:24:04,889
Phase A.
1071
01:24:04,890 --> 01:24:07,650
Phase A. The intention of phase A is?
1072
01:24:08,790 --> 01:24:09,790
Stopping action.
1073
01:24:10,030 --> 01:24:12,090
Stopping action. Great. What are we
stopping?
1074
01:24:13,750 --> 01:24:16,210
The downward movement.
1075
01:24:16,610 --> 01:24:19,270
Okay. Great. So now that we've stopped
that.
1076
01:24:19,580 --> 01:24:22,540
Now we could define the resistance and
the support.
1077
01:24:22,840 --> 01:24:25,940
So we always will start with the
horizontal range.
1078
01:24:26,260 --> 01:24:31,080
And that's my suggestion to all of you.
Sometimes, you know, I hear questions
1079
01:24:31,080 --> 01:24:37,260
that, when do we start, you know,
putting the down slope and up slope and
1080
01:24:37,260 --> 01:24:39,060
resistance and support?
1081
01:24:39,600 --> 01:24:41,620
Well, initially...
1082
01:24:42,000 --> 01:24:47,800
always, always put the horizontal
boundaries first for the range. This is
1083
01:24:47,800 --> 01:24:51,000
the majority of the time the price would
spend.
1084
01:24:51,280 --> 01:24:57,640
And then once you start seeing lower
lows or higher highs, that's when you
1085
01:24:57,640 --> 01:25:01,040
go in and establish, you know, more of
the downsloping.
1086
01:25:01,640 --> 01:25:07,260
Okay, so what is next? What catches your
eye next in this trading range?
1087
01:25:07,840 --> 01:25:13,080
Right. Then in phase B, there are series
of secondary tests.
1088
01:25:13,700 --> 01:25:19,680
Is phase B the most exciting to you as
you look at this chart?
1089
01:25:19,960 --> 01:25:21,920
Or are you just going sequentially?
1090
01:25:22,800 --> 01:25:24,420
Yeah, I was just going sequentially.
1091
01:25:25,160 --> 01:25:28,380
Yeah, so let's just pay attention to the
question itself.
1092
01:25:28,620 --> 01:25:32,540
What catches your eye and not
necessarily what comes next?
1093
01:25:33,600 --> 01:25:36,360
The downward movement, right, which
happened.
1094
01:25:37,960 --> 01:25:41,200
around the phase C test, right?
1095
01:25:41,640 --> 01:25:43,400
Around October, right?
1096
01:25:44,240 --> 01:25:50,840
Yeah, the downward reaction and then the
test that happened around
1097
01:25:50,840 --> 01:25:54,680
October. So how do we label this whole
thing here?
1098
01:25:55,120 --> 01:25:56,900
That would be phase C.
1099
01:25:57,100 --> 01:26:03,780
Okay, phase C. And how would we label
this price action in phase C?
1100
01:26:04,800 --> 01:26:05,800
Spring.
1101
01:26:06,440 --> 01:26:07,840
Yeah, it could be a spring.
1102
01:26:09,240 --> 01:26:14,760
Obviously, it has all of those
characteristics of the spring where
1103
01:26:14,760 --> 01:26:17,360
attempt to commit and then the recovery,
quick recovery.
1104
01:26:17,980 --> 01:26:23,360
My only hesitation here is the volume
signature, so such a big increase in the
1105
01:26:23,360 --> 01:26:24,360
volume signature.
1106
01:26:26,140 --> 01:26:31,660
So this also could suggest that it could
be labeled also as a potential
1107
01:26:31,660 --> 01:26:32,660
shakeout.
1108
01:26:33,459 --> 01:26:37,540
especially if you're using the
horizontal range, then somebody might
1109
01:26:37,640 --> 01:26:42,040
yeah, I see a lot of volume. I see a lot
of, you know, penetration below the
1110
01:26:42,040 --> 01:26:43,040
support area.
1111
01:26:43,140 --> 01:26:49,600
I think spring is better here at this
spot just because we don't see, you
1112
01:26:49,620 --> 01:26:55,080
big commitments to the downside in this
phase C. All right. So if this is a
1113
01:26:55,080 --> 01:27:00,880
spring or a shakeout, then what comes
next after, you know, after phase C?
1114
01:27:02,060 --> 01:27:03,400
Sign of strength rally.
1115
01:27:03,740 --> 01:27:08,500
Okay. Yeah, that's the one. And then we
have a backing up action.
1116
01:27:09,380 --> 01:27:14,380
Okay, great. And then everything in
between C and A is B.
1117
01:27:14,660 --> 01:27:20,640
And this attempt to overcome the
resistance and commit to the upside with
1118
01:27:20,640 --> 01:27:24,000
return into the trading range, we would
label as?
1119
01:27:24,580 --> 01:27:26,520
Up thrust in phase B.
1120
01:27:26,760 --> 01:27:29,040
Up thrust action in phase B.
1121
01:27:29,710 --> 01:27:30,589
Okay, great.
1122
01:27:30,590 --> 01:27:32,350
So here is our whole labeling.
1123
01:27:33,530 --> 01:27:39,910
One of the things here was the
horizontal range. If we're thinking that
1124
01:27:39,910 --> 01:27:44,370
it, look at the sign of strength, how it
comes to the point of the resistance,
1125
01:27:44,530 --> 01:27:51,030
and it doesn't overcome it. So if you're
using the horizontal range, then
1126
01:27:51,030 --> 01:27:54,730
it's going to be really difficult to...
1127
01:27:56,570 --> 01:27:58,350
contemplate about this at this spot.
1128
01:27:58,590 --> 01:28:00,850
Why is it failing at the point of the
resistance?
1129
01:28:01,150 --> 01:28:03,550
Is this a sign of weakness by itself?
1130
01:28:04,090 --> 01:28:05,190
That failure.
1131
01:28:05,730 --> 01:28:12,490
But if you're using a downsloping
picture, then a downsloping
1132
01:28:12,490 --> 01:28:16,790
range, then you can clearly see that
there is a commitment to the upside.
1133
01:28:17,090 --> 01:28:22,330
And more importantly, as this commitment
develops as a sign of strength rally,
1134
01:28:22,650 --> 01:28:25,350
there is a backup.
1135
01:28:25,790 --> 01:28:30,570
into the support that acted before as a
point of resistance.
1136
01:28:31,170 --> 01:28:36,190
So that confirms structurally that
indeed this was a sign of strength in
1137
01:28:36,190 --> 01:28:40,370
backing up action. And therefore, this
is phase C and this is phase D.
1138
01:28:40,610 --> 01:28:46,930
And if you missed your entry on this
spring, or let's say on the sign of
1139
01:28:46,930 --> 01:28:52,930
strength bar, then you could definitely
enter somewhere here in this area.
1140
01:28:53,420 --> 01:28:56,880
on the smaller back and up action that
belongs to this whole range.
1141
01:28:58,360 --> 01:28:59,840
All right, great.
1142
01:29:00,300 --> 01:29:02,500
Let's go to the second trading range.
1143
01:29:03,780 --> 01:29:09,640
And Nilesh, let's start with phase A.
1144
01:29:10,380 --> 01:29:13,700
Sure, that would be buying climax where
your pointer is.
1145
01:29:14,000 --> 01:29:19,400
And the downward reaction would be
automatic reaction.
1146
01:29:21,230 --> 01:29:23,550
And then we have a second test.
1147
01:29:24,710 --> 01:29:26,310
That would be phase A.
1148
01:29:26,650 --> 01:29:27,650
Okay.
1149
01:29:28,110 --> 01:29:34,710
And then we, in phase, okay, then phase
B, again, we are testing the same.
1150
01:29:35,030 --> 01:29:39,590
There is one upthrust action in phase B
that I see.
1151
01:29:40,290 --> 01:29:47,070
And in phase C, Where is phase C?
1152
01:29:47,630 --> 01:29:53,190
In August, after August, August 9, I
guess, somewhere around that, yeah,
1153
01:29:53,190 --> 01:29:57,890
where we are testing the freeze B lows
for the last time.
1154
01:29:58,130 --> 01:29:59,130
Excellent.
1155
01:29:59,870 --> 01:30:06,810
And that's, yeah, I do see an increase
in volume
1156
01:30:06,810 --> 01:30:13,650
there, but I think the downward spread
is lower there, and we do not reach
1157
01:30:13,650 --> 01:30:17,030
earlier supports as well. So that's the
point.
1158
01:30:18,630 --> 01:30:23,090
Still high or low relative to the lows
in phase A.
1159
01:30:23,510 --> 01:30:30,390
Right. Then we have a sign of strength
rally but which
1160
01:30:30,390 --> 01:30:37,270
it goes to the buying climax but not
really crossing the upthrust
1161
01:30:37,270 --> 01:30:41,590
action that we had in phase B until
later in October.
1162
01:30:41,850 --> 01:30:44,110
Think about the definition of the sign
of strength.
1163
01:30:44,310 --> 01:30:51,080
We said that a sign of strength should
rally off the lows in
1164
01:30:51,080 --> 01:30:57,440
phase C, go through the whole range,
commit to the upside. So all of this
1165
01:30:57,440 --> 01:31:02,660
rallies right here, those are kind of
like minor signs of strength, right? So
1166
01:31:02,660 --> 01:31:06,900
they're still in the trading range. They
have not overcome all of these points
1167
01:31:06,900 --> 01:31:09,540
of the resistance that we have in phases
A and B.
1168
01:31:10,960 --> 01:31:16,900
Therefore, you're looking for the
commitment that is above all of the
1169
01:31:16,900 --> 01:31:19,440
lines. Where is it? Somewhere here.
1170
01:31:19,740 --> 01:31:25,700
You also want to see that the price
consolidates, spends time above that
1171
01:31:25,700 --> 01:31:32,340
push up, and then comes and backs up
exactly to the area of the support that
1172
01:31:32,340 --> 01:31:36,220
acted before as the resistance.
1173
01:31:36,560 --> 01:31:39,760
Therefore, a sign of strength in the
backing up action.
1174
01:31:40,160 --> 01:31:46,840
has been shown to us here and therefore
they belong to phase d okay great um
1175
01:31:46,840 --> 01:31:53,780
i have one question um uh so in this
whole structure
1176
01:31:53,780 --> 01:31:58,800
right what would be as in where would
you think about opening uh position
1177
01:31:58,800 --> 01:32:05,180
it be in uh buying backing backing up
action only or are there any other
1178
01:32:05,180 --> 01:32:06,180
interesting uh
1179
01:32:07,059 --> 01:32:11,240
where you see the signs of upward
reversal.
1180
01:32:11,760 --> 01:32:12,760
Okay,
1181
01:32:13,280 --> 01:32:18,920
so in other words, where would we be
opening positions, right? Am I correct?
1182
01:32:19,400 --> 01:32:24,260
Yes. All right, great, great question.
Thank you, Nilesh, and I'm going to mute
1183
01:32:24,260 --> 01:32:25,260
you.
1184
01:32:25,660 --> 01:32:30,380
Okay, so one of the things here right
away, and we'll come back to this
1185
01:32:30,380 --> 01:32:34,680
in a second, climactic run is very well
defined.
1186
01:32:35,470 --> 01:32:40,070
So there is a climactic volume here. A
climactic volume does not necessarily
1187
01:32:40,070 --> 01:32:42,210
have to come on the last bar.
1188
01:32:42,870 --> 01:32:48,310
It has to come on the last rally,
though, and be a part of that rally.
1189
01:32:49,370 --> 01:32:55,030
But we clearly see that there is a
momentum move, there is a vertical
1190
01:32:55,030 --> 01:33:01,110
on the way up, and then there is a
climactic run, which is being concluded
1191
01:33:01,110 --> 01:33:03,870
followed by a change of character.
1192
01:33:05,009 --> 01:33:09,810
And I'm looking at the next reaction to
the downside, and this looks to me like
1193
01:33:09,810 --> 01:33:10,509
a test.
1194
01:33:10,510 --> 01:33:15,670
So I'm starting to think that, hmm,
could I label it in a slightly different
1195
01:33:15,670 --> 01:33:21,370
way? Remember how we said that sometimes
we could label a reaccumulation as it
1196
01:33:21,370 --> 01:33:27,330
starts up to the backing up action as a
shakeout that is being followed just
1197
01:33:27,330 --> 01:33:28,330
like a regular.
1198
01:33:28,780 --> 01:33:32,140
accumulation labeling, automatic rally,
and secondary test.
1199
01:33:32,480 --> 01:33:34,520
So I think this is appropriate here.
1200
01:33:34,940 --> 01:33:41,720
Bind climax, a shakeout type of action
on the increased volume signature, and
1201
01:33:41,720 --> 01:33:48,040
doesn't really behave as a pronounced
move to the downside. So right here,
1202
01:33:48,040 --> 01:33:54,580
on that, where we see that the distance
covered by the rally
1203
01:33:54,580 --> 01:34:01,260
and then the distance covered by the
shakeouts are just so different. The
1204
01:34:01,260 --> 01:34:05,520
shakeout is much, much smaller than the
distance to the upside.
1205
01:34:05,920 --> 01:34:07,760
So therefore,
1206
01:34:10,220 --> 01:34:15,500
and with the volume signature, we're
thinking, okay, maybe like a temporary
1207
01:34:15,500 --> 01:34:21,300
shakeout. If this is a shakeout, then
the next thing that we're experiencing
1208
01:34:21,300 --> 01:34:24,520
automatic rally, secondary test, phase
A.
1209
01:34:25,360 --> 01:34:30,300
And we kind of see that the texture of
phase A is
1210
01:34:30,300 --> 01:34:37,180
congruent with all of these thoughts
that I just went through, right? So
1211
01:34:37,180 --> 01:34:44,040
it seems like all of these tests belong
to each other, these two
1212
01:34:44,040 --> 01:34:48,740
reactions. The second reaction is just a
test of the first reaction.
1213
01:34:48,980 --> 01:34:51,640
So that suggests phase A.
1214
01:34:51,960 --> 01:34:53,740
Then we see that in...
1215
01:34:54,170 --> 01:34:59,190
Phase C reaction, you know, this is a
different texture. This is a different
1216
01:34:59,190 --> 01:35:04,030
test. And it looks so different than
phase A. It also looks different than
1217
01:35:04,030 --> 01:35:08,450
B. Because as we look at phase B, this
is the texture.
1218
01:35:08,930 --> 01:35:13,390
It's kind of like this laborious move to
the downside where there's selling,
1219
01:35:13,570 --> 01:35:16,950
selling, selling, selling, selling,
selling.
1220
01:35:17,270 --> 01:35:22,110
And yet there is no way that the price
can commit below.
1221
01:35:23,020 --> 01:35:24,320
the lows in phase A.
1222
01:35:24,740 --> 01:35:26,160
So that's number one.
1223
01:35:26,420 --> 01:35:32,160
Let's come back to the question by Neil
Ash that was about the points of entry.
1224
01:35:32,480 --> 01:35:38,880
So in my trading, I probably would be
thinking that after the upthrust action
1225
01:35:38,880 --> 01:35:44,320
phase B, the move to the downside is
actually that move into phase C.
1226
01:35:44,760 --> 01:35:50,540
So I would be thinking of interpreting
this trading range, thinking that this
1227
01:35:50,540 --> 01:35:51,540
phase C.
1228
01:35:52,160 --> 01:35:57,900
minor sign of strength, maybe major sign
of strength right here in the backing
1229
01:35:57,900 --> 01:36:00,500
up action. So there's an entry somewhere
here.
1230
01:36:00,800 --> 01:36:06,840
The exit out of this position could be
here or on the failure of the support
1231
01:36:06,840 --> 01:36:13,160
right here. So you probably would be
ending up with, you know, just a small
1232
01:36:16,100 --> 01:36:19,640
Small win, break even, small loss.
1233
01:36:23,340 --> 01:36:25,720
And that would be your trade number one.
1234
01:36:28,620 --> 01:36:35,080
And again, I'm not shying away out
1235
01:36:35,080 --> 01:36:38,580
of this type of opportunities, out of
this type of trade.
1236
01:36:39,900 --> 01:36:46,760
Because I don't necessarily know 100 %
that this is going to be phase C.
1237
01:36:46,940 --> 01:36:51,800
I mean, we could go into much deeper
analysis and figure out why it wasn't
1238
01:36:51,800 --> 01:36:52,800
C.
1239
01:36:53,280 --> 01:36:59,480
At the same time, in a lot of cases, we
just don't see that until it actually
1240
01:36:59,480 --> 01:37:00,480
happens.
1241
01:37:01,140 --> 01:37:07,200
Plus, the character of the move to the
upside was actually somewhat okay.
1242
01:37:09,280 --> 01:37:16,100
So therefore, after this first trade, if
we're still thinking that this is
1243
01:37:16,100 --> 01:37:20,180
the bias to the upside and we're
defining phase C on the next reaction,
1244
01:37:21,040 --> 01:37:22,900
Our entry is going to be somewhere here.
1245
01:37:24,700 --> 01:37:31,040
That's entry number one. Our second
entry out of the reversal of the LPS.
1246
01:37:31,300 --> 01:37:33,460
So that's entry number two.
1247
01:37:33,860 --> 01:37:38,800
We don't necessarily want to enter
somewhere here. Why? Because we don't
1248
01:37:38,800 --> 01:37:45,780
the next reaction is going to be such
that would take us out and hit
1249
01:37:45,780 --> 01:37:50,580
our stop loss. So we would just
patiently wait until they're backing up.
1250
01:37:51,120 --> 01:37:56,200
after the sign of strength forms, and we
would enter somewhere here. So this
1251
01:37:56,200 --> 01:38:02,020
would be our third point of entry. So we
would be entering here, here, and then
1252
01:38:02,020 --> 01:38:06,800
here. And prior to that, we entered
here, and we exited here, and here.
1253
01:38:10,060 --> 01:38:13,660
All right, let's see some questions.
1254
01:38:17,020 --> 01:38:18,900
Could you start back?
1255
01:38:20,780 --> 01:38:23,360
in July with buying climax.
1256
01:38:23,860 --> 01:38:30,140
Philip, are we discussing the same
trading range? It's probably somewhere
1257
01:38:30,280 --> 01:38:35,220
right? So could we start back with July
with buying climax? Okay, yeah, buying
1258
01:38:35,220 --> 01:38:36,220
climax.
1259
01:38:37,780 --> 01:38:43,660
So we have a small distribution range
that produces the cause
1260
01:38:43,660 --> 01:38:45,320
for this low.
1261
01:38:45,960 --> 01:38:48,620
This low here is a trading range by
itself.
1262
01:38:48,860 --> 01:38:54,040
It starts here. So here is selling
climax, automatic reaction, secondary
1263
01:38:54,040 --> 01:39:00,160
somewhere here, which is hidden, sign of
weakness in phase B, upthrust in phase
1264
01:39:00,160 --> 01:39:01,160
C,
1265
01:39:01,320 --> 01:39:05,240
everything in between is B, and then a
move to the downside.
1266
01:39:06,140 --> 01:39:11,220
Selling climax, automatic reaction,
secondary test, phase A, and so on and
1267
01:39:11,220 --> 01:39:12,220
forth.
1268
01:39:13,530 --> 01:39:17,750
We didn't go through this structure. We
just went into this structure because
1269
01:39:17,750 --> 01:39:20,270
that was the assignment. But here it is.
1270
01:39:21,210 --> 01:39:22,730
All right, next question.
1271
01:39:25,230 --> 01:39:31,190
Big volume on a spring is bullish or
bearish indicator or none?
1272
01:39:31,790 --> 01:39:37,410
So I'm still thinking that this is the
case. Actually, in both cases, the
1273
01:39:37,410 --> 01:39:38,410
significantly increases.
1274
01:39:38,750 --> 01:39:41,830
Now, we will study this in more detail.
1275
01:39:42,520 --> 01:39:49,380
literally like in a couple of sessions
but you know it's so
1276
01:39:49,380 --> 01:39:53,420
funny how on the same slide we have two
different variations the first variation
1277
01:39:53,420 --> 01:40:00,080
is kind of like a more normal volume
signature where we have an increase in
1278
01:40:00,080 --> 01:40:06,700
of the supply in phase a and then we
have um a decrease
1279
01:40:06,700 --> 01:40:11,140
of the supply into phase b and then a
local
1280
01:40:12,110 --> 01:40:18,950
increase of the supply from phase B to
C, and long -term
1281
01:40:18,950 --> 01:40:25,730
decrease of the supply from phase A to
C, and
1282
01:40:25,730 --> 01:40:27,330
here from B to C.
1283
01:40:30,410 --> 01:40:36,770
In the first instance, the volume
signature is different. We see that from
1284
01:40:36,770 --> 01:40:41,700
A going into phase C, we actually have
an increase in the supply signature.
1285
01:40:42,780 --> 01:40:47,220
And in both cases, we would be thinking
about what? We would be thinking about
1286
01:40:47,220 --> 01:40:53,200
the result. What is the result of this
whole thing? If the supply increases, do
1287
01:40:53,200 --> 01:40:58,280
we produce a significant commitment to
the downside? And we see that there are
1288
01:40:58,280 --> 01:41:04,600
attempts to commit, but there is no
actual commitment below the support
1289
01:41:05,000 --> 01:41:06,200
The same here.
1290
01:41:07,370 --> 01:41:14,330
There is an attempt to commit, but yet
it doesn't. It only springs below the
1291
01:41:14,330 --> 01:41:16,650
lows in phase B.
1292
01:41:19,230 --> 01:41:25,550
So in both cases, result is very crucial
for us to identify, and then volume
1293
01:41:25,550 --> 01:41:30,850
acts more as a confirmation of
institutional presence at this spot.
1294
01:41:31,110 --> 01:41:36,860
And the way how we would be thinking
about institutional presence is While
1295
01:41:36,860 --> 01:41:40,160
are here, so what is happening on this
increased volume signature?
1296
01:41:40,460 --> 01:41:46,100
Well, the price tries to go down to the
downside and then recovers. Tries to go
1297
01:41:46,100 --> 01:41:49,860
down and then recovers. So, therefore,
that volume signature suggests
1298
01:41:49,860 --> 01:41:51,480
participation of institutions.
1299
01:41:53,420 --> 01:41:56,620
And what do they do? They abide at that
point.
1300
01:41:56,860 --> 01:41:59,020
So, therefore, they abide to the upside.
1301
01:42:00,220 --> 01:42:01,380
Good questions today.
1302
01:42:01,640 --> 01:42:03,580
I wish I would feel better a little bit.
1303
01:42:04,529 --> 01:42:08,270
And maybe we could just like even go
into more explanation of this.
1304
01:42:15,130 --> 01:42:16,130
Okay.
1305
01:42:16,390 --> 01:42:18,950
Is the first trillion range an
accumulation?
1306
01:42:19,930 --> 01:42:26,930
Well, again, you have to think about the
context of everything what
1307
01:42:26,930 --> 01:42:27,930
is happening here.
1308
01:42:28,430 --> 01:42:30,710
So this acts as a reaccumulation.
1309
01:42:31,250 --> 01:42:33,730
This acts as a reaccumulation as well.
1310
01:42:34,190 --> 01:42:37,110
The definition of the reaccumulation,
move to the upside.
1311
01:42:38,150 --> 01:42:40,190
Consolidation, move to the upside.
1312
01:42:41,190 --> 01:42:45,150
Consolidation, move to the upside. So
both are reaccumulation ranges.
1313
01:42:47,030 --> 01:42:53,130
Is August 23rd of 1999 also a sign of
strength?
1314
01:42:54,160 --> 01:42:58,420
this rally right here. Well, we could
kind of think that, yes, there is
1315
01:42:58,420 --> 01:43:01,900
definitely like this major sign of
strength commitment to the upside.
1316
01:43:02,240 --> 01:43:07,060
But I probably would be just thinking
that, you know, what kind of value it
1317
01:43:07,060 --> 01:43:07,839
gives us.
1318
01:43:07,840 --> 01:43:08,920
Probably none.
1319
01:43:09,880 --> 01:43:16,300
The fact that the trading range, the
second trading range just rests above
1320
01:43:16,300 --> 01:43:20,220
the buying climax here suggests
1321
01:43:21,200 --> 01:43:23,380
Strength suggests bias to the upside.
1322
01:43:24,080 --> 01:43:28,880
But I wouldn't be labeling this whole
move as a major sign of strength.
1323
01:43:29,380 --> 01:43:35,960
I would probably be thinking more about
this area right here as a sign of
1324
01:43:35,960 --> 01:43:40,240
strength in the backing up action. But I
kind of see the logic of why you would
1325
01:43:40,240 --> 01:43:41,240
think so.
1326
01:43:41,800 --> 01:43:42,800
All right, great.
1327
01:43:44,220 --> 01:43:47,400
So here is my labeling here. You could
go through this.
1328
01:43:48,560 --> 01:43:50,200
as you do your homework.
1329
01:43:53,580 --> 01:43:58,120
Let's talk about shakeouts and sprint
-type actions.
1330
01:43:58,500 --> 01:44:03,600
So we've discussed sprints, and I
mentioned to you guys that Wyckoff
1331
01:44:03,600 --> 01:44:08,100
did not have a definition of a sprint.
What he had is the definition of a
1332
01:44:08,100 --> 01:44:10,020
shakeout or a terminal shakeout.
1333
01:44:11,820 --> 01:44:16,680
And a definition of a shakeout is going
to be
1334
01:44:17,530 --> 01:44:21,330
basically a difference between a
shakeout and a spring.
1335
01:44:22,550 --> 01:44:29,510
So we said that the spring is either an
attempt or a temporary commitment below
1336
01:44:29,510 --> 01:44:30,550
the support level.
1337
01:44:31,130 --> 01:44:33,550
Shakeout is much more than that.
1338
01:44:33,890 --> 01:44:38,810
And I want you just to, on a very
simplistic level, to think about the
1339
01:44:38,810 --> 01:44:41,450
is it's like a very, very deep spring.
1340
01:44:42,370 --> 01:44:46,790
So it's a pronounced price commitment
below levels of the support.
1341
01:44:47,360 --> 01:44:50,920
Look at how many closes we have below
here.
1342
01:44:51,700 --> 01:44:52,760
Quite a few.
1343
01:44:53,980 --> 01:44:58,040
And distance -wise, it traveled.
1344
01:45:00,140 --> 01:45:06,160
So we also would like to see a much
better volume signature here, so
1345
01:45:06,160 --> 01:45:08,020
more of the increase.
1346
01:45:08,400 --> 01:45:12,420
And the reason why the volume signature
here is not that significant is just
1347
01:45:12,420 --> 01:45:14,980
because it's actually a down -floating
range.
1348
01:45:15,500 --> 01:45:20,200
And I've used this example in the
previous slide. So it acts actually more
1349
01:45:20,200 --> 01:45:25,660
spring in the downsloping range than a
shakeout. But in the horizontal range,
1350
01:45:25,920 --> 01:45:31,120
you definitely are going to recognize
this as a shakeout. And this would be a
1351
01:45:31,120 --> 01:45:35,520
more conventional way of thinking about
this concept and specifically thinking
1352
01:45:35,520 --> 01:45:37,660
about this training range formation.
1353
01:45:44,040 --> 01:45:48,720
What's kind of like the confirmation or
the tactics for the shakeout?
1354
01:45:48,980 --> 01:45:55,800
Well, with the shakeout as well as
spring number two, our
1355
01:45:55,800 --> 01:45:59,480
points of entry are always going to be
on the test.
1356
01:46:00,040 --> 01:46:01,700
Think about this for a second.
1357
01:46:01,920 --> 01:46:06,300
Why do we need the test for spring
number two and the shakeout?
1358
01:46:06,800 --> 01:46:10,840
Well, because both are going to be
associated with the increased supply
1359
01:46:10,840 --> 01:46:11,840
signature.
1360
01:46:12,720 --> 01:46:17,900
And if supply is increasing, we always
want to have some kind of test.
1361
01:46:19,120 --> 01:46:24,680
And this test always should come as a
high or low and on the diminished supply
1362
01:46:24,680 --> 01:46:28,400
signature. That way it would be a
successful test.
1363
01:46:33,860 --> 01:46:35,360
So where is that test?
1364
01:46:35,760 --> 01:46:40,600
Well, it's a little bit hidden right
here behind these bars.
1365
01:46:41,280 --> 01:46:46,520
And actually supply does come in again
and being observed at the same time. So
1366
01:46:46,520 --> 01:46:49,060
this acts actually as a very good sign.
1367
01:46:49,280 --> 01:46:51,360
And we understand why this happens.
1368
01:46:51,580 --> 01:46:53,580
It just happens before the earnings
catalyst.
1369
01:46:57,100 --> 01:47:02,920
So that's why some volume signature
comes, supply comes, there is a lot of
1370
01:47:02,920 --> 01:47:06,700
before the earnings, and then, you know,
the price jumps.
1371
01:47:07,520 --> 01:47:09,200
Okay, let's talk about...
1372
01:47:09,900 --> 01:47:11,380
screen type action.
1373
01:47:12,340 --> 01:47:17,800
So what is the screen type action? So
sometimes I would say, oh, look at this
1374
01:47:17,800 --> 01:47:24,020
upthrust action, right? So in the
reaccumulation, an attempt to commit to
1375
01:47:24,020 --> 01:47:28,780
offsite with the subsequent failure is
going to be labeled as an upthrust
1376
01:47:28,780 --> 01:47:29,780
action.
1377
01:47:31,020 --> 01:47:37,520
So it looks like an upthrust, but in the
reaccumulation, We know that we usually
1378
01:47:37,520 --> 01:47:40,980
don't use upthrust as a definition, but
it's there.
1379
01:47:41,420 --> 01:47:47,100
It looks like an upthrust. It acts like
an upthrust. It is an upthrust only in
1380
01:47:47,100 --> 01:47:51,440
the accumulation, so therefore we will
say upthrust action. It acts like an
1381
01:47:51,440 --> 01:47:52,440
upthrust.
1382
01:47:52,680 --> 01:47:54,100
The same with the spring.
1383
01:47:54,760 --> 01:48:01,480
We could see in the distributional
structure that in some instances a sign
1384
01:48:01,480 --> 01:48:04,160
weakness could be
1385
01:48:04,929 --> 01:48:06,290
interpreted as a sprint.
1386
01:48:06,570 --> 01:48:12,150
It would have the same characteristics
where supply is diminishing going into
1387
01:48:12,150 --> 01:48:18,150
the sprint, where the commitment below
the support is going to be just
1388
01:48:18,150 --> 01:48:24,950
and just so perfect how it just sprints
like this and then came back the
1389
01:48:24,950 --> 01:48:26,330
next day with the gap up.
1390
01:48:27,410 --> 01:48:34,280
So educators like Gary Fuller, David
Wise, uh gary dayton they would be
1391
01:48:34,280 --> 01:48:40,620
talking about this as a spring and
rightfully so it it is a spring it acts
1392
01:48:40,620 --> 01:48:46,700
spring but to be more accurate let's
just uh define it as a spring type
1393
01:48:46,700 --> 01:48:52,200
just because we know what has happened
next uh the price went up and then went
1394
01:48:52,200 --> 01:48:58,740
down so we're seeing that this is not an
accumulation or reaccumulation and that
1395
01:48:58,740 --> 01:49:04,800
this is a distribution and once
everything unfolded we know that um
1396
01:49:04,800 --> 01:49:11,600
this type of action before phase c is
going to be a sign of weakness in phase
1397
01:49:11,600 --> 01:49:18,560
so and therefore we would just look at
this and we would call it a spring
1398
01:49:18,560 --> 01:49:25,340
type action which is actually a sign of
weakness all right
1399
01:49:25,340 --> 01:49:29,720
let's go to the next
1400
01:49:31,799 --> 01:49:36,700
By the way, were there any other
questions on the web?
1401
01:49:37,440 --> 01:49:39,580
No, no, we went through this. Okay,
great.
1402
01:49:44,180 --> 01:49:46,220
Let's talk about distribution.
1403
01:49:47,980 --> 01:49:54,580
Let's talk about events and distinction.
So we went through accumulation,
1404
01:49:54,680 --> 01:49:56,480
the definition of accumulation.
1405
01:49:56,780 --> 01:49:59,580
Actually, guys, let me take, like,
1406
01:50:00,360 --> 01:50:04,760
a one -minute break here at this point,
and I'll be back in a second. Hold on a
1407
01:50:04,760 --> 01:50:06,420
second before we go into this new
material.
1408
01:51:54,060 --> 01:51:55,060
All right.
1409
01:51:58,220 --> 01:51:59,220
I'm back.
1410
01:52:05,520 --> 01:52:09,000
So let's talk to our organization about
a distribution.
1411
01:52:10,320 --> 01:52:15,280
So what is happening in the
distribution? How does sentiment change
1412
01:52:15,280 --> 01:52:21,340
whole trading range? What do
institutional hands and weak hands are
1413
01:52:21,740 --> 01:52:23,180
How do they behave?
1414
01:52:24,080 --> 01:52:28,400
Well, it's all being, of course, driven
by institutional activity.
1415
01:52:29,100 --> 01:52:35,000
So we are in the uptrend, and then
suddenly we reach some kind of point of
1416
01:52:35,000 --> 01:52:36,000
for them.
1417
01:52:36,440 --> 01:52:41,360
And in some instances, this value is
going to be defined also as an
1418
01:52:41,360 --> 01:52:46,000
condition. You're going to have some
overthrows in this area in the major
1419
01:52:46,000 --> 01:52:51,160
uptrend. And this is where this type of
condition creates a
1420
01:52:51,160 --> 01:52:57,500
very... bullish uh weak hands sentiment
1421
01:52:57,500 --> 01:53:04,020
and with this very bullish um we can
1422
01:53:04,020 --> 01:53:10,740
sentiment that produces liquidity
1423
01:53:10,740 --> 01:53:16,700
availability which
1424
01:53:16,700 --> 01:53:19,900
basically
1425
01:53:20,970 --> 01:53:26,510
suggest that institutions could sell
into
1426
01:53:26,510 --> 01:53:30,970
weak hands' strength.
1427
01:53:33,070 --> 01:53:37,250
And in a lot of cases, that selling
starts on the way up.
1428
01:53:37,590 --> 01:53:44,130
And you could sometimes see how the
price goes up, stops, goes up, stops,
1429
01:53:44,130 --> 01:53:47,370
up, stops, and then produces a big
change of character.
1430
01:53:48,150 --> 01:53:53,910
So usually these spots are going to be
associated with the tremendous increase
1431
01:53:53,910 --> 01:53:54,910
in the supply.
1432
01:53:55,070 --> 01:54:01,930
But yet because this is just initial
selling, it's not going
1433
01:54:01,930 --> 01:54:06,970
to produce a big downward result.
1434
01:54:07,310 --> 01:54:12,950
And therefore it's hidden from us like
that. And only a trained eye could see
1435
01:54:12,950 --> 01:54:17,350
that. And we'll definitely go through
that, you know, especially in the second
1436
01:54:17,350 --> 01:54:21,970
month when we will be discussing, you
know, supply signature, demand
1437
01:54:22,530 --> 01:54:23,810
So we'll go through that.
1438
01:54:24,910 --> 01:54:30,870
But this is the initial place where
institutions are going to unload their
1439
01:54:30,870 --> 01:54:34,750
position or close out, you know, some of
it, scale out.
1440
01:54:35,940 --> 01:54:39,740
And this area right here will be defined
as a buying climax.
1441
01:54:40,080 --> 01:54:43,400
It doesn't necessarily have to be like a
climactic run.
1442
01:54:43,620 --> 01:54:47,820
It could be even a trading range. There
are so many ways of how buying climax
1443
01:54:47,820 --> 01:54:48,820
could unfold.
1444
01:54:49,960 --> 01:54:54,440
But buying climax is going to be
associated with the first attempts by
1445
01:54:54,440 --> 01:54:59,760
institutions to sell their position, to
distribute to the strength of weak
1446
01:54:59,760 --> 01:55:03,700
hands. And this is where weak hands are
going to be extremely excited.
1447
01:55:04,670 --> 01:55:10,630
Weekends are going to be correct on the
buys and correct on their timing in the
1448
01:55:10,630 --> 01:55:15,190
last portion of the uptrend. This is
where they're going to enjoy all of the
1449
01:55:15,190 --> 01:55:16,810
profits to the upside.
1450
01:55:18,050 --> 01:55:24,090
You hear usually a lot of stories from
weekends where they're saying, like, I
1451
01:55:24,090 --> 01:55:25,090
made so much money.
1452
01:55:26,010 --> 01:55:31,730
And that usually happens on the
climactic run. Think about 2017.
1453
01:55:32,880 --> 01:55:39,800
The last two quarters from summer into
the junior year of
1454
01:55:39,800 --> 01:55:45,220
2018. That was the market where we had
that climactic run.
1455
01:55:45,480 --> 01:55:52,360
And this is where we heard a lot of the
great stories about how big
1456
01:55:52,360 --> 01:55:54,520
money were made on the way up.
1457
01:55:55,220 --> 01:55:57,140
Then comes the change of character.
1458
01:55:57,800 --> 01:56:01,700
That change of character is going to be
very somewhat...
1459
01:56:02,060 --> 01:56:08,800
sudden because here institutions are
selling as well and
1460
01:56:08,800 --> 01:56:15,620
now instead of selling and no downward
1461
01:56:15,620 --> 01:56:21,900
result in this case on the change of
character they will be selling
1462
01:56:21,900 --> 01:56:28,340
and there will be an increase in the
downward result for the first time
1463
01:56:28,340 --> 01:56:33,620
and that's what is going to define a
change of character.
1464
01:56:34,000 --> 01:56:40,920
So behavior has changed for the
institutions. And not only that, but the
1465
01:56:40,920 --> 01:56:46,100
follows now that behavior in the
direction of the institutional force.
1466
01:56:46,420 --> 01:56:50,800
And that's what produces that change of
character. A change of character low is
1467
01:56:50,800 --> 01:56:53,220
going to be defined as an automatic
reaction.
1468
01:56:53,580 --> 01:56:58,400
And that would define the boundary of
the trading range.
1469
01:56:59,660 --> 01:57:05,580
If anything, this is just such a great
concept, I thought, that Wyckoff has
1470
01:57:05,580 --> 01:57:06,580
up with.
1471
01:57:07,320 --> 01:57:08,600
A trading race.
1472
01:57:09,080 --> 01:57:15,560
Future price action is going to be
condensed between the
1473
01:57:15,560 --> 01:57:20,160
boundaries of the resistance and the
support.
1474
01:57:20,620 --> 01:57:26,880
This is where the majority of the time
the price will be, between these two
1475
01:57:26,880 --> 01:57:27,880
lines.
1476
01:57:29,130 --> 01:57:35,310
Once we define the boundary of the
trading range, the next action for us is
1477
01:57:35,310 --> 01:57:38,610
retest, a secondary test. Now, think
about this.
1478
01:57:39,350 --> 01:57:44,310
At this point of time, at the automatic
reaction, there is some kind of short
1479
01:57:44,310 --> 01:57:49,710
-term value proposition because the
price went down.
1480
01:57:59,790 --> 01:58:03,370
As the price goes down, there is some
short -term value.
1481
01:58:03,630 --> 01:58:04,850
Who's going to take this?
1482
01:58:05,510 --> 01:58:06,790
Who is the buyer here?
1483
01:58:10,950 --> 01:58:17,410
Well, institutions have been selling
into the strength of
1484
01:58:17,410 --> 01:58:21,570
weak hands. They've been selling on the
change of character as well.
1485
01:58:21,810 --> 01:58:23,230
So would they be buyers?
1486
01:58:23,590 --> 01:58:29,090
Now, we were taught that you know,
institutions might actually be buyers at
1487
01:58:29,090 --> 01:58:30,090
spot.
1488
01:58:30,770 --> 01:58:35,910
I doubt that strong -hand institutions
would be buyers at this spot.
1489
01:58:36,130 --> 01:58:37,250
Why would they be?
1490
01:58:37,990 --> 01:58:43,370
There is no logic in this whatsoever
that they would be buyers here.
1491
01:58:43,750 --> 01:58:48,010
Only institutions that are weak hands,
that are seeing some kind of value for
1492
01:58:48,010 --> 01:58:49,570
them, they could be buyers.
1493
01:58:50,640 --> 01:58:54,920
And if it's a reaccumulation zone, then
they would, you know, strong
1494
01:58:54,920 --> 01:58:57,360
institutional hands would be biased as
well.
1495
01:58:58,300 --> 01:59:05,300
But I don't see how weak
1496
01:59:05,300 --> 01:59:10,980
hands, institutional hands would be
biased, I'm sorry, would be, strong
1497
01:59:10,980 --> 01:59:15,660
institutional hands would be biased on
the change of character law in the
1498
01:59:15,660 --> 01:59:16,660
distributional formation.
1499
01:59:17,260 --> 01:59:21,920
Their goal and intention at this point
is just to scale out, to sell.
1500
01:59:22,220 --> 01:59:28,240
So no buying by strong hands. So weak
hands are going to be buyers here.
1501
01:59:34,000 --> 01:59:39,580
And that's what's going to lead to this
next weak rally, which is going to be a
1502
01:59:39,580 --> 01:59:40,580
secondary test.
1503
01:59:41,600 --> 01:59:43,800
And that would conclude phase A.
1504
01:59:44,120 --> 01:59:50,480
The intention behind phase A is the same
in distribution as is in the
1505
01:59:50,480 --> 01:59:51,480
accumulation.
1506
01:59:52,140 --> 01:59:59,020
It's to stop. To stop what? To stop the
previous move from going further up. So
1507
01:59:59,020 --> 02:00:00,480
we're stopping an uptrend.
1508
02:00:00,760 --> 02:00:05,340
And all of the elements, including the
preliminary supply, where the first
1509
02:00:05,340 --> 02:00:11,760
selling might come, buying climates,
automatic reaction, and secondary tasks
1510
02:00:11,760 --> 02:00:12,880
going to be a part of phase A.
1511
02:00:17,640 --> 02:00:22,900
As weak hands are buying on the way up,
imagine what happens to them on the next
1512
02:00:22,900 --> 02:00:23,900
reaction.
1513
02:00:24,920 --> 02:00:30,260
They're basically saying, this is
probably a wrong position for me to be
1514
02:00:31,580 --> 02:00:35,740
And it's going to get them out of this
position, maybe on the sign of weakness,
1515
02:00:36,040 --> 02:00:39,700
maybe on the secondary test just because
there was a reaction and they were
1516
02:00:39,700 --> 02:00:41,560
expecting more of the move to the
upside.
1517
02:00:41,980 --> 02:00:46,600
So they would get out of this position
and as they get out,
1518
02:00:49,989 --> 02:00:55,270
that could produce that sign of weakness
that, again, could produce some kind of
1519
02:00:55,270 --> 02:00:56,270
short -term value.
1520
02:00:56,450 --> 02:01:01,190
The short -term value could finally be
picked up by some of the institutions
1521
02:01:01,190 --> 02:01:05,890
that are going to be, again, weak hands
at this point of time.
1522
02:01:06,250 --> 02:01:11,770
And that absorption of the supply at
this low is going to push into the next
1523
02:01:11,770 --> 02:01:18,330
high. And as weak hands, like public
weak hands are not participating in this
1524
02:01:18,330 --> 02:01:21,610
rally, they are regretting that they did
not participate.
1525
02:01:22,030 --> 02:01:27,730
So what do they do? On the next
reaction, they are coming in here and
1526
02:01:27,730 --> 02:01:30,070
initiating the position.
1527
02:01:30,390 --> 02:01:32,130
So weak hands prime.
1528
02:01:35,170 --> 02:01:41,250
And at this point, strong hands such as
selling, selling, selling, selling.
1529
02:01:42,380 --> 02:01:46,780
And they try to sell at the upper
boundary of the range.
1530
02:01:47,020 --> 02:01:52,440
If they were accumulating the stock, the
shares, in the lower boundary during
1531
02:01:52,440 --> 02:01:58,600
accumulation, in the distribution, they
will always try to be effective with
1532
02:01:58,600 --> 02:02:05,540
their selling and to sell at the most
optimal price, meaning that that price
1533
02:02:05,540 --> 02:02:10,680
going to be, sell price is going to be
in the upper part of the trading range.
1534
02:02:11,690 --> 02:02:18,530
And, of course, depending on how the
market reacts to that selling. So if the
1535
02:02:18,530 --> 02:02:24,010
market still wants the shares, that
selling in the upper part of the trading
1536
02:02:24,010 --> 02:02:26,210
range is very easy for institutions.
1537
02:02:26,590 --> 02:02:33,530
But if the weak hands are less willing
to buy the
1538
02:02:33,530 --> 02:02:40,230
stock, then most likely it's going to be
much harder for institutions to
1539
02:02:40,230 --> 02:02:45,300
sell. in the upper part of the trading
range. And they would have to push the
1540
02:02:45,300 --> 02:02:51,100
price lower. So sometimes weaker
structures are going to have structures
1541
02:02:51,100 --> 02:02:55,540
deteriorating structures with the lower
highs and lower lows.
1542
02:02:55,960 --> 02:03:01,540
It's just institutions can't really sell
everything right away. So they sell and
1543
02:03:01,540 --> 02:03:04,500
then they allow the price to go up. Then
they sell.
1544
02:03:05,100 --> 02:03:10,180
The price goes below the low, creates a
low, low. So they know that, you know,
1545
02:03:10,180 --> 02:03:14,460
whatever supply they provided them to
the market, it tanks the market. So they
1546
02:03:14,460 --> 02:03:16,420
need to be careful as to how they sell.
1547
02:03:16,680 --> 02:03:21,160
So next time the rally goes up, they're
trying to sell maybe less. And then on
1548
02:03:21,160 --> 02:03:26,040
the way out, they just get through it,
their position, and just sell
1549
02:03:26,240 --> 02:03:27,860
And that produces the gaps.
1550
02:03:28,500 --> 02:03:30,840
On the way out, you know, a big spread.
1551
02:03:32,100 --> 02:03:34,000
Well, if the weekends...
1552
02:03:34,400 --> 02:03:36,640
got into this position again.
1553
02:03:36,860 --> 02:03:39,280
So this is the second time when they
bought.
1554
02:03:44,200 --> 02:03:49,540
And they're really enjoying the upthrust
because upthrust is going to have a lot
1555
02:03:49,540 --> 02:03:51,140
of characteristics of a sign of
strength.
1556
02:03:51,820 --> 02:03:56,100
This is where the spread might be
increasing to the upside.
1557
02:03:56,340 --> 02:04:00,880
There might be increasing volume as the
rally unfolds. And then as the price
1558
02:04:00,880 --> 02:04:03,040
commits to the new level, this is the...
1559
02:04:03,280 --> 02:04:08,160
becomes the second point of excitement
for weak hands.
1560
02:04:10,500 --> 02:04:13,300
What is the first point of excitement?
1561
02:04:13,520 --> 02:04:16,320
Well, we said that it was a climactic
wrap.
1562
02:04:20,560 --> 02:04:26,140
These are the two spots where weak hands
are going to be excited about their
1563
02:04:26,140 --> 02:04:30,980
position, so therefore they're going to
provide more liquidity to strong hands,
1564
02:04:31,140 --> 02:04:32,200
institutional hands.
1565
02:04:32,650 --> 02:04:33,650
to sell into.
1566
02:04:33,770 --> 02:04:40,110
So we often see that in this area, we're
going to see either one bar or several
1567
02:04:40,110 --> 02:04:45,870
bars with the increased volume signature
that suggests the presence of supply.
1568
02:04:46,950 --> 02:04:53,510
And as it fails, this is the first time
where weekends are going to say, I'm not
1569
02:04:53,510 --> 02:04:54,510
selling.
1570
02:04:57,230 --> 02:05:00,190
Why? Why are they not selling at this
point?
1571
02:05:00,390 --> 02:05:01,630
Well, because...
1572
02:05:02,280 --> 02:05:05,760
Finally, they realize that they have to
be disciplined.
1573
02:05:06,280 --> 02:05:10,800
But unfortunately, they get disciplined
at the wrong time.
1574
02:05:11,120 --> 02:05:18,120
And this whole weak hands, strong hands,
you know, weak hands usually defined
1575
02:05:18,120 --> 02:05:21,740
not just by the incorrect bias.
1576
02:05:22,140 --> 02:05:27,020
Their actions are defined by incorrect
timing as well.
1577
02:05:27,550 --> 02:05:32,170
And that's kind of like the case here.
So they want to be disciplined and they
1578
02:05:32,170 --> 02:05:38,990
say, every time I entered this position,
the price went down
1579
02:05:38,990 --> 02:05:40,370
and then the price went up.
1580
02:05:40,590 --> 02:05:46,910
So now that the price goes down, I'm not
going to sell this position because I
1581
02:05:46,910 --> 02:05:49,690
know that the price will go up again and
it will rebound.
1582
02:05:50,570 --> 02:05:52,970
And it would rebound in the
reaccumulation.
1583
02:05:53,710 --> 02:05:58,010
And unfortunately, if it happens to them
in the reaccumulation, imagine the
1584
02:05:58,010 --> 02:06:00,950
emotional confirmation that they get
from that rebound.
1585
02:06:01,590 --> 02:06:05,810
The rebound is basically just saying,
yeah, you should be doing this all the
1586
02:06:05,810 --> 02:06:08,810
time. And that's how they would be
functioning.
1587
02:06:10,950 --> 02:06:17,290
So at this point of time, they do not
give up on their position, whereas
1588
02:06:17,290 --> 02:06:20,350
institutions are selling into that
strength.
1589
02:06:21,290 --> 02:06:23,210
There is really not a lot of...
1590
02:06:23,580 --> 02:06:30,360
strength just because not a lot of bias
on the last point of supply rally.
1591
02:06:34,200 --> 02:06:39,140
And the stock or the shares are in weak
hands.
1592
02:06:47,050 --> 02:06:52,510
Therefore, this rally is going to be
mostly flat or it's just going to
1593
02:06:52,510 --> 02:06:56,950
some kind of momentum to the upside and
then it's just going to come down and
1594
02:06:56,950 --> 02:06:57,950
then tank.
1595
02:06:58,070 --> 02:07:00,270
Imagine what we can do next.
1596
02:07:00,610 --> 02:07:06,550
As they hold on to their position and
the price goes and breaks below the
1597
02:07:06,550 --> 02:07:08,810
support, what do you think is going to
happen here?
1598
02:07:09,490 --> 02:07:15,410
Well, at this point of time, there is
too much of the emotional pain.
1599
02:07:17,710 --> 02:07:22,050
that weak hands are going to have. And
by the way, again, weak hands, not just
1600
02:07:22,050 --> 02:07:27,370
public, institutions plus public
1601
02:07:27,370 --> 02:07:33,150
and institutions
1602
02:07:33,150 --> 02:07:36,110
on the wrong side of the trade.
1603
02:07:39,490 --> 02:07:45,310
And when they see that the price goes
down, they just basically emotionally
1604
02:07:45,310 --> 02:07:51,260
capitulate and they say, get me out at
any price that's what produces this big
1605
02:07:51,260 --> 02:07:56,620
move to the downside usually once the
price comes out of the distributional
1606
02:07:56,620 --> 02:08:02,960
formation we could see a lot of gaps to
the downside that are significant gaps
1607
02:08:02,960 --> 02:08:08,480
we could see big spread increase to the
downside that are going to be extremely
1608
02:08:08,480 --> 02:08:15,420
big and extremely significant spreads to
the downside and that's where we
1609
02:08:15,420 --> 02:08:16,420
know that
1610
02:08:17,550 --> 02:08:21,990
There is a capitulation that is
happening on the way down.
1611
02:08:23,310 --> 02:08:24,310
All right.
1612
02:08:24,370 --> 02:08:30,670
As in the accumulation, we would be
using
1613
02:08:30,670 --> 02:08:33,910
Y -cap events to define phases.
1614
02:08:34,630 --> 02:08:40,130
We've talked about phase A and all of
the events there. And it's kind of like
1615
02:08:40,130 --> 02:08:42,190
mirror image of the accumulation.
1616
02:08:42,920 --> 02:08:47,820
So we have a preliminary supply instead
of preliminary support, buying climax
1617
02:08:47,820 --> 02:08:52,940
instead of selling climax, automatic
reaction instead of automatic rally, and
1618
02:08:52,940 --> 02:08:54,760
then secondary test is going to be the
same.
1619
02:08:55,460 --> 02:08:57,120
Then the labeling changes.
1620
02:08:58,780 --> 02:09:04,140
We still would be thinking phase B as
the test of the support and the
1621
02:09:04,140 --> 02:09:05,140
resistance.
1622
02:09:09,920 --> 02:09:14,780
test that the support is a low low then
we're going to label it a secondary test
1623
02:09:14,780 --> 02:09:20,840
as a sign of weakness in phase b high
low is going to be just a secondary test
1624
02:09:20,840 --> 02:09:26,940
and then excuse me a lower high
1625
02:09:26,940 --> 02:09:33,260
in phase b is going to be labeled as an
attempt to up thrust
1626
02:09:33,260 --> 02:09:40,060
and um A higher high is
1627
02:09:40,060 --> 02:09:41,660
going to be an upthrust.
1628
02:09:43,080 --> 02:09:46,920
So these are the label and definitions
in phase B.
1629
02:09:47,140 --> 02:09:53,820
And then phase C is going to be our
final test
1630
02:09:53,820 --> 02:09:59,200
of the demand, right? So in
accumulation, final test of the supply.
1631
02:09:59,440 --> 02:10:02,760
Here, a final test of the demand in the
distribution.
1632
02:10:03,640 --> 02:10:10,070
And it's also going to have either a
higher high, which will be labeled as an
1633
02:10:10,070 --> 02:10:11,790
upthrust after distribution.
1634
02:10:12,050 --> 02:10:13,370
Why after distribution?
1635
02:10:13,590 --> 02:10:19,010
Because if this is a distribution, the
thought here in the methodology was that
1636
02:10:19,010 --> 02:10:24,430
distribution has already happened by
that time. By the time the upthrust
1637
02:10:24,430 --> 02:10:26,430
in phase B, distribution is done.
1638
02:10:27,110 --> 02:10:30,030
This is, again, not necessarily correct.
1639
02:10:31,050 --> 02:10:36,990
And the method requires a lot of
corrections and adjustments, and this is
1640
02:10:36,990 --> 02:10:42,510
I'm... kind of trying to do with this
course. It's just to put everything on
1641
02:10:42,510 --> 02:10:45,570
the correct path.
1642
02:10:47,810 --> 02:10:49,110
So, distribution
1643
02:10:49,110 --> 02:11:03,570
still
1644
02:11:03,570 --> 02:11:05,290
could be happening.
1645
02:11:06,030 --> 02:11:11,610
on the way down, even in phase D. There
might be some selling on the way down.
1646
02:11:12,350 --> 02:11:15,890
Distribution could happen even on the
way down in phase E.
1647
02:11:16,670 --> 02:11:19,970
Institutions can still be in the mode of
selling.
1648
02:11:21,770 --> 02:11:28,330
So, to me, this is definitionally not
necessarily the best semantic after
1649
02:11:28,330 --> 02:11:29,330
distribution.
1650
02:11:29,490 --> 02:11:33,810
I would say that maybe this is a
distributional upthrust.
1651
02:11:34,110 --> 02:11:38,270
That's what I would... probably say like
DUT, something like that.
1652
02:11:40,450 --> 02:11:47,290
Up for us after distribution could be
also be tied with tests or multiple
1653
02:11:47,290 --> 02:11:50,570
tests that come and, you know, test that
attempt to go up.
1654
02:11:52,930 --> 02:11:59,930
And then a lower high in phase C will be
labeled as a last point of supply.
1655
02:12:00,970 --> 02:12:04,070
And then we are experiencing a change of
character.
1656
02:12:04,590 --> 02:12:08,950
The next reaction is going to be the
largest reaction in the trading range,
1657
02:12:09,110 --> 02:12:14,530
which defines that the behavior has
changed, and therefore a change of
1658
02:12:14,530 --> 02:12:15,449
is underway.
1659
02:12:15,450 --> 02:12:20,350
The change of character is going to be
confirmed by the last point of supply
1660
02:12:20,350 --> 02:12:26,610
rally, which usually is going to be a
week.
1661
02:12:31,800 --> 02:12:36,080
After this rally, this is where the
capitulation is going to happen as the
1662
02:12:36,080 --> 02:12:37,500
commits to the downside.
1663
02:12:38,420 --> 02:12:45,020
Intentions behind phases in distribution
are the same as in the accumulation.
1664
02:12:45,480 --> 02:12:51,840
Phase A, as I mentioned, is a stopping
action of the uptrend. Phase B is a
1665
02:12:51,840 --> 02:12:58,220
cost building, and this phase defines
the relationship between supply and
1666
02:12:58,220 --> 02:13:04,700
demand. Phase C is the final test of the
demand at the resistance level.
1667
02:13:05,360 --> 02:13:11,520
Phase D is the initial markdown within
the trading range, whereas phase E is
1668
02:13:11,520 --> 02:13:14,400
going to be the markdown outside of the
trading range.
1669
02:13:14,920 --> 02:13:21,300
As usual, I'm giving you the definitions
and the characteristics of all of these
1670
02:13:21,300 --> 02:13:24,000
Wyckoff events in the distribution
range.
1671
02:13:24,220 --> 02:13:27,020
This is something that I want you to
print out.
1672
02:13:27,420 --> 02:13:33,820
to have to have it in your library uh
and to study as a homework assignment
1673
02:13:33,820 --> 02:13:40,220
and obviously to remember those
characteristics and remember this
1674
02:13:40,220 --> 02:13:45,280
usually when we don't remember the
sequence you know of all of the labeling
1675
02:13:45,280 --> 02:13:49,480
events that are happening this is where
we are starting to make mistakes
1676
02:13:50,200 --> 02:13:55,020
and this is where I see how the students
may be not understanding the material.
1677
02:13:55,160 --> 02:13:59,700
So please make sure that you go through
this slide and study and remember
1678
02:13:59,700 --> 02:14:01,600
characteristics by heart.
1679
02:14:02,960 --> 02:14:09,560
Okay, let's look at some variations of
the distributional patterns.
1680
02:14:12,320 --> 02:14:19,060
So a conventional distributional trading
range would look something like
1681
02:14:19,060 --> 02:14:25,180
this. where we see a horizontal
structure and we could have maybe some
1682
02:14:25,180 --> 02:14:31,860
higher high into phase C, maybe a lower
high, you know, where we would have like
1683
02:14:31,860 --> 02:14:34,140
a last point of supply type of
situation.
1684
02:14:34,700 --> 02:14:41,080
But predominantly, the price would be
consolidating within the boundaries of
1685
02:14:41,080 --> 02:14:44,500
support and the resistance that were
created by the bionic climax and
1686
02:14:44,500 --> 02:14:48,200
reaction in phase A.
1687
02:14:49,360 --> 02:14:55,460
A more alternative schematics and
labeling
1688
02:14:55,460 --> 02:15:02,380
could include a leadership, a
distribution of
1689
02:15:02,380 --> 02:15:08,960
the leadership stock or a leadership
instrument. It's usually going to be
1690
02:15:08,960 --> 02:15:15,120
associated with a very
1691
02:15:15,120 --> 02:15:21,400
unwilling change in sentiment by market
participants in this structure.
1692
02:15:22,020 --> 02:15:27,440
It has been a leader on the way up, and
it still could act as a leadership. And
1693
02:15:27,440 --> 02:15:33,960
the 2018 market in the US is a prime
example of that,
1694
02:15:34,100 --> 02:15:40,600
where we did have a change of character,
and yet we had an upthrust
1695
02:15:40,600 --> 02:15:47,140
into the climactic high. It more reminds
us of the...
1696
02:15:47,930 --> 02:15:53,530
of this schematic right here which also
defines a distribution of the leadership
1697
02:15:53,530 --> 02:16:00,450
stock where buying climax is being
followed by a shakeout type of
1698
02:16:00,450 --> 02:16:05,770
action then we have a reaccumulation
type of structure that leads us to the
1699
02:16:05,770 --> 02:16:11,790
thrust formation and then we have a
downturn now in this market what's
1700
02:16:11,790 --> 02:16:18,600
kind of like very very interesting about
this market is that As it went down,
1701
02:16:18,720 --> 02:16:20,600
it recovered really fast.
1702
02:16:21,940 --> 02:16:25,700
So therefore, what are we thinking here
with this recovery?
1703
02:16:26,140 --> 02:16:28,100
Why did it recover so fast?
1704
02:16:28,320 --> 02:16:33,139
Well, it only could recover under one
condition, where in the oversold
1705
02:16:33,139 --> 02:16:37,480
condition, we have some kind of value
for institutions.
1706
02:16:38,680 --> 02:16:42,680
If there is some value for the
institutions, what does it mean for the
1707
02:16:43,280 --> 02:16:47,340
Well, the long -term buyers, as they see
it, is still up.
1708
02:16:48,520 --> 02:16:54,440
So therefore, I'm thinking that this
whole formation that we're in right now,
1709
02:16:54,600 --> 02:16:57,480
probably just a long -term
reaccumulation.
1710
02:16:57,760 --> 02:17:02,600
And probably this rally will conclude
with some kind of reaction and then a
1711
02:17:02,600 --> 02:17:08,139
consolidation that's going to lead to
potentially next move to the upside.
1712
02:17:08,620 --> 02:17:15,530
This type of scenario could only be
negated when we would see maybe a
1713
02:17:15,530 --> 02:17:20,490
that's going to bring us to the lows,
and then the subsequent rallies are
1714
02:17:20,490 --> 02:17:27,490
to be so weak that we're just going to
collapse after those. So it's going to
1715
02:17:27,490 --> 02:17:32,010
be interesting to look at the next
reaction because next reaction is going
1716
02:17:32,010 --> 02:17:35,230
define a lot of the structure that's
going to come next.
1717
02:17:36,570 --> 02:17:39,610
But this is something that if you want
to hear more on.
1718
02:17:40,090 --> 02:17:44,270
you could join us for our Wednesday
class, Wyckoff Market Discussion.
1719
02:17:45,129 --> 02:17:51,830
So two types of leadership
distributional patterns.
1720
02:17:52,510 --> 02:17:56,049
And then we go into something very, very
unique.
1721
02:17:58,150 --> 02:18:04,230
Both of these patterns, so number three
and number five,
1722
02:18:04,330 --> 02:18:11,000
are... of the same family, and they are
called tipi
1723
02:18:11,000 --> 02:18:14,520
formations or tipi family.
1724
02:18:15,320 --> 02:18:18,660
So what is tipi by itself?
1725
02:18:18,920 --> 02:18:22,540
Well, it was taken from the Indian hut
look.
1726
02:18:23,580 --> 02:18:27,900
This is how it looks. So there is a move
up, and then there is a quick move
1727
02:18:27,900 --> 02:18:34,219
down, speculation on the way up, and
then urgent selling on the way down.
1728
02:18:34,760 --> 02:18:41,240
Why is it so? Well, because there is
just like not even extreme, double
1729
02:18:41,240 --> 02:18:48,080
extreme overbought condition on the way
up.
1730
02:18:48,200 --> 02:18:49,879
Basically a pure speculation.
1731
02:18:50,500 --> 02:18:56,620
And you've seen this in the Bitcoin just
recently.
1732
02:18:57,379 --> 02:19:01,740
You've seen this in the Chinese market
in 2015.
1733
02:19:04,650 --> 02:19:08,430
so many other examples that we could
observe.
1734
02:19:08,969 --> 02:19:15,770
In this hypodermic formation, and this
is the biggest difference between, let's
1735
02:19:15,770 --> 02:19:20,049
say, hypodermic formation than anything
else that we see here on this slide,
1736
02:19:20,770 --> 02:19:23,709
the phases are going to collapse.
1737
02:19:24,030 --> 02:19:28,930
And the duration of the phases is
1738
02:19:28,930 --> 02:19:31,809
going to shorten.
1739
02:19:32,070 --> 02:19:33,090
So therefore,
1740
02:19:35,309 --> 02:19:41,930
our phase B is going to be short, and
it's going to be in line
1741
02:19:41,930 --> 02:19:44,690
as phase A and phase C.
1742
02:19:47,510 --> 02:19:53,550
Usually, we would like to see phase B as
one of the biggest phases, right?
1743
02:19:54,070 --> 02:19:57,370
Look at all of the schematics. Phase B
is quite substantial.
1744
02:19:59,610 --> 02:20:04,710
But in the case of the hypodermic
distribution, this is where...
1745
02:20:05,100 --> 02:20:08,580
There's going to be collapse in duration
for phases. Why does this happen?
1746
02:20:09,480 --> 02:20:16,100
Well, because of the extreme value that
institutions
1747
02:20:16,100 --> 02:20:20,040
are getting and extreme profitability
that they have.
1748
02:20:20,460 --> 02:20:26,060
They don't want to wait and distribute
the stock throughout the horizontal
1749
02:20:26,060 --> 02:20:32,700
formation and take time to do that. They
basically say, get me out
1750
02:20:32,700 --> 02:20:33,700
now.
1751
02:20:34,760 --> 02:20:36,460
And I don't care at what price.
1752
02:20:36,920 --> 02:20:42,720
So they're going to sell, sell, sell on
the way down. And they're just going to
1753
02:20:42,720 --> 02:20:49,580
take the profits, you know, whatever
profits they can. And that profit, even
1754
02:20:49,580 --> 02:20:50,940
the way down, is going to be
substantial.
1755
02:20:53,080 --> 02:20:57,580
We'll study more of these examples, you
know, later on and in the practicum as
1756
02:20:57,580 --> 02:21:01,560
well. Another TP family member is...
1757
02:21:01,820 --> 02:21:04,240
the last chart, the last schematic right
here.
1758
02:21:05,020 --> 02:21:10,260
And it's going to have the same type of
institutional behavioral
1759
02:21:10,260 --> 02:21:14,220
characteristics as the hypodermic
distribution.
1760
02:21:14,800 --> 02:21:19,280
There's going to be some speculation on
the way up, but then what's more even
1761
02:21:19,280 --> 02:21:26,160
important is that throughout the initial
phase A and early phase
1762
02:21:26,160 --> 02:21:29,480
B, we're going to see urgent
distribution.
1763
02:21:30,330 --> 02:21:31,330
by institutions.
1764
02:21:32,290 --> 02:21:39,170
And usually this urgent distribution
will conclude
1765
02:21:39,170 --> 02:21:41,330
initial selling by institutions.
1766
02:21:41,910 --> 02:21:46,690
And because of that, the price is going
to go into some kind of apex formation.
1767
02:21:47,730 --> 02:21:51,350
And in this apex formation, this is
what's going to happen.
1768
02:21:51,850 --> 02:21:56,870
Weak hands are going to find some value
and they're going to be buyers.
1769
02:21:57,740 --> 02:22:00,960
But because they're weak hands, their
bind is not going to be very intense.
1770
02:22:01,360 --> 02:22:07,260
And it will never produce the rally
that's going to come to the levels of
1771
02:22:07,260 --> 02:22:08,260
bind climax.
1772
02:22:09,840 --> 02:22:16,640
And this is one of the attributes of
this CP Apex formation.
1773
02:22:18,720 --> 02:22:23,380
And institutions, you know, the strong
hands, they're already sold.
1774
02:22:23,660 --> 02:22:25,480
They don't need to sell anymore.
1775
02:22:27,120 --> 02:22:29,500
They are just basically inactive.
1776
02:22:29,760 --> 02:22:35,700
So institutions are inactive throughout
1777
02:22:35,700 --> 02:22:38,960
this whole apex formation.
1778
02:22:39,180 --> 02:22:44,100
If institutions are inactive, then all
of the reactions to the downside, just
1779
02:22:44,100 --> 02:22:47,940
because they are biased already to the
downside, are going to be mediocre as
1780
02:22:47,940 --> 02:22:51,100
well. And that's what creates the apex.
1781
02:22:51,770 --> 02:22:55,630
Weak hands are buying at the value zone,
and then they're just holding on to the
1782
02:22:55,630 --> 02:23:00,850
position. And then strong hands are just
basically already sold out, and they
1783
02:23:00,850 --> 02:23:01,850
don't want to sell anymore.
1784
02:23:02,330 --> 02:23:08,970
So there is an inactivity by
institutions, and that produces this
1785
02:23:08,970 --> 02:23:14,610
formation. It is being resolved on the
way out. And ironically,
1786
02:23:14,970 --> 02:23:19,110
this on the way out is also going to be
led by institutions.
1787
02:23:20,120 --> 02:23:24,740
they're going to see that throughout,
let's say, a couple of quarters, there
1788
02:23:24,740 --> 02:23:29,940
no absolute or
1789
02:23:29,940 --> 02:23:36,820
relative outperformance.
1790
02:23:38,500 --> 02:23:43,040
And this will lead for the final
capitulation.
1791
02:23:44,540 --> 02:23:49,210
And they were going to give up on this
position. As they're giving up, the
1792
02:23:49,210 --> 02:23:53,290
supply is going to increase at this
spot, and also the price will start
1793
02:23:53,290 --> 02:23:54,290
to the downside.
1794
02:23:54,330 --> 02:23:58,190
This movement to the downside will
change the sentiment of weak hands, and
1795
02:23:58,190 --> 02:23:59,390
they're going to start selling as well.
1796
02:23:59,650 --> 02:24:05,670
And that's why apex formations produce
such quick moves on high volume
1797
02:24:05,670 --> 02:24:09,850
signatures, because if there is a
capitulation out of the apex formation,
1798
02:24:10,190 --> 02:24:14,350
everyone participates in that, and
they're going to just capitulate on the
1799
02:24:14,350 --> 02:24:15,350
down.
1800
02:24:15,960 --> 02:24:20,060
getting out of the position, and it just
collapses the stock, collapses the
1801
02:24:20,060 --> 02:24:21,060
price.
1802
02:24:22,300 --> 02:24:28,000
All right, so definitely something that
I want you to think about, that I want
1803
02:24:28,000 --> 02:24:34,260
you to go through, and especially this
slide right here
1804
02:24:34,260 --> 02:24:41,040
with all
1805
02:24:41,040 --> 02:24:44,600
of the Wyckoff events.
1806
02:24:45,120 --> 02:24:49,200
all of the phases, intentions behind
those, and so on and so forth.
1807
02:24:50,600 --> 02:24:55,060
Okay, so I think that we're going to
stop. Okay, so a couple of other things.
1808
02:24:55,280 --> 02:25:00,900
So chit -chat on the distribution,
phases A and B. This is, again,
1809
02:25:00,900 --> 02:25:06,200
that you need to print out and just keep
in front of you, keep it in your
1810
02:25:06,200 --> 02:25:07,200
library.
1811
02:25:07,400 --> 02:25:12,720
Go through all of these points. This is
just another way for me to give you this
1812
02:25:12,720 --> 02:25:13,720
information.
1813
02:25:15,100 --> 02:25:22,020
I believe, you know, as a teacher, that
if I give you the same information in
1814
02:25:22,020 --> 02:25:26,800
different ways, one of the ways are
going to resonate more. So this is just
1815
02:25:26,800 --> 02:25:30,740
another way of thinking about this
concept. So just go through this by
1816
02:25:32,000 --> 02:25:33,720
Phase C, D, and E.
1817
02:25:34,600 --> 02:25:41,540
And then your homework for next time.
Your homework is still going
1818
02:25:41,540 --> 02:25:42,680
to be on labeling.
1819
02:25:42,960 --> 02:25:44,000
We're going to label.
1820
02:25:44,490 --> 02:25:45,490
Microsoft.
1821
02:25:45,910 --> 02:25:50,970
And it's the same assignment. I want you
to label the trading ranges with WICA
1822
02:25:50,970 --> 02:25:53,710
phases, events, and change of character.
1823
02:25:54,550 --> 02:25:58,830
So let's quickly look at this. And you
could notice that I don't have the
1824
02:25:58,830 --> 02:26:00,330
signature on all of these slides.
1825
02:26:00,550 --> 02:26:01,910
It's very intentional.
1826
02:26:02,230 --> 02:26:06,390
I want your mind to think only about
labeling at this point.
1827
02:26:07,450 --> 02:26:12,970
So 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
1828
02:26:13,690 --> 02:26:16,030
Seven, eight, nine.
1829
02:26:17,810 --> 02:26:19,170
Yes, okay, great.
1830
02:26:19,490 --> 02:26:21,010
So nine charts.
1831
02:26:21,770 --> 02:26:23,630
Okay, so this is the homework.
1832
02:26:25,110 --> 02:26:30,930
And then next class, what we're going to
do is we're going to look at your
1833
02:26:30,930 --> 02:26:34,330
distribution homework for today.
1834
02:26:35,430 --> 02:26:41,470
And we're going to go through that, and
we still have some of the material that
1835
02:26:41,470 --> 02:26:42,470
we need to cover.
1836
02:26:43,990 --> 02:26:49,430
But this is going to be, you know, our
last final class on
1837
02:26:49,430 --> 02:26:54,650
price structural analysis, and then
we're going to transition it to the
1838
02:26:54,650 --> 02:26:55,650
and demand.
1839
02:26:56,050 --> 02:27:01,830
So Eric is saying here, too much, Ramon.
Okay. Well, yeah, if you guys are
1840
02:27:01,830 --> 02:27:07,510
feeling like for those of you, you know,
for those of you who feel like, oh,
1841
02:27:07,510 --> 02:27:08,630
it's a little bit too much.
1842
02:27:08,990 --> 02:27:10,230
Go at your own pace.
1843
02:27:10,710 --> 02:27:14,770
Sometimes when I receive emails like,
this is a very intense course.
1844
02:27:16,010 --> 02:27:17,250
Yes, it is.
1845
02:27:18,190 --> 02:27:22,630
But there is no other way that I know
how to teach this material.
1846
02:27:22,850 --> 02:27:26,130
And there is no other way that I would
want to teach this material.
1847
02:27:26,870 --> 02:27:30,110
It's just me. It's just kind of like a
style, a teaching style.
1848
02:27:30,870 --> 02:27:37,370
So therefore, take your time and go at
your own pace. If you feel like you
1849
02:27:37,370 --> 02:27:38,370
go through the whole homework,
1850
02:27:39,120 --> 02:27:41,740
make it a point just to label at least
one chart.
1851
02:27:42,020 --> 02:27:47,060
Maybe two. Maybe you can do three. Or
maybe you'll find the time and label all
1852
02:27:47,060 --> 02:27:52,160
nine. And obviously, it comes with the
practice. So the more you practice, the
1853
02:27:52,160 --> 02:27:57,780
faster you're going to see those
concepts on the chart, the faster you're
1854
02:27:57,780 --> 02:28:00,020
to label those and so on and so forth.
1855
02:28:00,240 --> 02:28:05,620
So that's kind of like the key. To
study, but to study at your own pace and
1856
02:28:05,620 --> 02:28:07,000
don't over...
1857
02:28:11,179 --> 02:28:16,220
Don't overdo something like this where,
you know, I understand that this is not
1858
02:28:16,220 --> 02:28:22,540
your job. This is more of a secondary
income that you want to create. You
1859
02:28:22,620 --> 02:28:26,800
maybe it's kind of like a hobby for
somebody, so therefore just pace
1860
02:28:27,880 --> 02:28:30,300
All right, let's see some of the
comments.
1861
02:28:32,029 --> 02:28:36,090
What does it cost to be a part of your
Wednesday market update class?
1862
02:28:36,530 --> 02:28:38,910
We'll definitely go to our website.
1863
02:28:39,570 --> 02:28:43,490
Let me just see if I could quickly...
1864
02:28:43,490 --> 02:28:53,350
If
1865
02:28:53,350 --> 02:28:54,870
I could quickly show you this.
1866
02:28:55,930 --> 02:28:59,870
So under classes, go to a wake -up
market discussion.
1867
02:29:01,640 --> 02:29:05,400
The cost of this class is $99 per month.
1868
02:29:06,160 --> 02:29:12,280
This is a monthly recurring payment, so
you can cancel it at any point
1869
02:29:12,280 --> 02:29:16,580
via PayPal or just email us.
1870
02:29:17,540 --> 02:29:22,340
And this is an hour and a half on the
market on the last bar.
1871
02:29:22,580 --> 02:29:24,840
So, yeah, you're welcome to join us.
1872
02:29:27,480 --> 02:29:28,820
Another question.
1873
02:29:34,640 --> 02:29:39,520
Ramon, for me the confusion is the
difference of sign of weakness or spring
1874
02:29:39,520 --> 02:29:40,980
to reaccumulation.
1875
02:29:41,560 --> 02:29:47,220
Can have a spring and distribution have
sign of weakness so that it's so
1876
02:29:47,220 --> 02:29:52,180
similar? Okay, let me rephrase this
question so I think I understand it. So
1877
02:29:52,180 --> 02:29:56,760
difference between a spring
1878
02:29:56,760 --> 02:30:01,860
in the reaccumulation
1879
02:30:05,250 --> 02:30:09,970
and a sign of weakness in the
distribution.
1880
02:30:11,610 --> 02:30:17,410
I'm going to assume that a major sign of
weakness in the distribution.
1881
02:30:20,650 --> 02:30:26,590
So what's the difference, right? Because
they're going to look the same or
1882
02:30:26,590 --> 02:30:27,590
somewhat the same.
1883
02:30:29,550 --> 02:30:30,550
Well,
1884
02:30:31,150 --> 02:30:36,070
there are quite a few things that are
going to happen before, right? Even in
1885
02:30:36,070 --> 02:30:41,490
phase A, as we've studied, there might
be some very average volume signature
1886
02:30:41,490 --> 02:30:46,310
that's going to indicate to you that
this is a reaccumulation.
1887
02:30:46,550 --> 02:30:53,070
Maybe there is a subsequent supply
dryout and maybe just slight increase,
1888
02:30:53,070 --> 02:30:55,810
increase of the volume signature on the
actual spring.
1889
02:30:57,340 --> 02:31:01,300
Whereas in the distribution, we might
have phase A that's going to be
1890
02:31:01,300 --> 02:31:06,700
with a big supply increase and then
1891
02:31:06,700 --> 02:31:10,760
increase of the supply signature on the
way down.
1892
02:31:11,560 --> 02:31:17,260
So that could look different. But even
if we have not noticed this, then we
1893
02:31:17,260 --> 02:31:22,380
always would be thinking about the
confirmation of those patterns, the
1894
02:31:22,380 --> 02:31:25,380
confirmation of a spring.
1895
02:31:25,960 --> 02:31:29,460
A confirmation of a sign of weakness. So
what would be a confirmation of a
1896
02:31:29,460 --> 02:31:34,120
spring? The price comes back into the
trading range and goes into a major sign
1897
02:31:34,120 --> 02:31:35,120
of strength.
1898
02:31:35,300 --> 02:31:40,300
And then with the major sign of
weakness, there's going to be an attempt
1899
02:31:40,300 --> 02:31:41,300
back.
1900
02:31:41,780 --> 02:31:48,260
The price could come back, but then it
still needs to react into the resistance
1901
02:31:48,260 --> 02:31:50,280
and then collapse.
1902
02:31:51,160 --> 02:31:55,380
So those are going to be two different
pictures that you're going to see as a
1903
02:31:55,380 --> 02:32:01,060
confirmation. So I would concentrate on
that first because it's an easy
1904
02:32:01,060 --> 02:32:06,080
identification. And then try to define
the bias throughout the whole structure
1905
02:32:06,080 --> 02:32:12,040
as you go through phases A and B, which
is a much, much harder task.
1906
02:32:13,280 --> 02:32:14,300
All right.
1907
02:32:17,800 --> 02:32:19,220
Is there...
1908
02:32:21,100 --> 02:32:26,060
a redistribution trading range set up
similar to reaccumulation, or will it
1909
02:32:26,060 --> 02:32:30,420
proceed by buying climax during overall
downtrend?
1910
02:32:33,340 --> 02:32:40,040
There are quite a few similarities that
we could have between a reaccumulation
1911
02:32:40,040 --> 02:32:42,960
and a distribution.
1912
02:32:43,440 --> 02:32:48,380
And usually, as we say, like the first
one -third of the trading range.
1913
02:32:48,950 --> 02:32:53,970
is going to look the same. Now, this
statement is correct and erroneous at
1914
02:32:53,970 --> 02:33:00,110
same time because, yes, in some
instances, the trading ranges are going
1915
02:33:00,110 --> 02:33:04,350
know, with different bias, with the
reaccumulation and the distribution
1916
02:33:04,610 --> 02:33:08,070
indeed, they're going to start the same
way. And actually, I have an exercise
1917
02:33:08,070 --> 02:33:14,530
for you for the second month where we're
going to look at something like that.
1918
02:33:15,130 --> 02:33:20,100
And yet, the resolution of the trading
ranges are going to be different.
1919
02:33:20,340 --> 02:33:22,480
So we'll talk about that difference
more.
1920
02:33:22,860 --> 02:33:27,840
But on a very kind of like simplistic
level,
1921
02:33:28,180 --> 02:33:35,180
yes, you're going to see distributional
patterns that
1922
02:33:35,180 --> 02:33:39,800
are going to look a lot like an
accumulation or reaccumulation rather.
1923
02:33:40,220 --> 02:33:44,160
I've started session number one with the
examples of the trades that I made.
1924
02:33:44,480 --> 02:33:48,900
Go back to that session and rewatch a
trade in Novodea.
1925
02:33:49,440 --> 02:33:55,660
I've mentioned to you that throughout
the whole trading range, this was one of
1926
02:33:55,660 --> 02:33:59,660
the leadership stocks that was on my
watch list still as a reaccumulation.
1927
02:34:00,120 --> 02:34:04,800
And I don't see anything wrong with that
definition.
1928
02:34:05,300 --> 02:34:08,300
Yes, we know that Novodea went down.
1929
02:34:08,750 --> 02:34:15,470
And it would be dishonest for me to tell
you that I was
1930
02:34:15,470 --> 02:34:21,150
thinking of the distribution all the way
through the trading range. That's just
1931
02:34:21,150 --> 02:34:22,210
not how I function.
1932
02:34:22,490 --> 02:34:26,470
I was thinking about the reaccumulation,
so I'm going to tell you this.
1933
02:34:26,770 --> 02:34:33,710
And then some elements that came later
on after the upthrust.
1934
02:34:34,330 --> 02:34:38,850
That suggested the change of character
and defined the bias to the downside.
1935
02:34:40,650 --> 02:34:45,810
And that's when I figured out that now
it's going to be distributed.
1936
02:34:46,170 --> 02:34:48,990
And it's going to be distributed
relatively fast.
1937
02:34:49,670 --> 02:34:52,750
So we're looking for those type of
definitions.
1938
02:34:53,450 --> 02:34:59,030
Whenever you're asking me a question
like that, you're looking for a linear
1939
02:34:59,030 --> 02:35:04,530
solution to a complex multivariable type
of problem. problem.
1940
02:35:05,270 --> 02:35:09,210
And you can't solve this problem in a
linear way.
1941
02:35:09,690 --> 02:35:15,210
Or you can solve it in a linear way, but
you have to have the capacity to
1942
02:35:15,210 --> 02:35:21,850
connect so many different variables, so
many data points, and you just can't. As
1943
02:35:21,850 --> 02:35:25,190
a human, you can't. I think that, you
know, if you're using maybe like
1944
02:35:25,190 --> 02:35:31,030
supercomputers, you probably can, but
you still have to define the rules for
1945
02:35:31,030 --> 02:35:36,530
supercomputer, unless you define the
artificial intelligence rules and then
1946
02:35:36,530 --> 02:35:38,530
system learns how to identify it.
1947
02:35:39,230 --> 02:35:46,150
But for now, the key is concentrate on
the concepts and then be fluid,
1948
02:35:46,410 --> 02:35:48,250
be dynamic in your analysis.
1949
02:35:48,450 --> 02:35:53,050
Don't be linear. Don't be thinking that,
oh, it has to be all rule -based.
1950
02:35:53,350 --> 02:35:59,030
Yes, it has to be. But in a lot of
cases, it has to be conceptually based,
1951
02:35:59,250 --> 02:36:05,950
concept -based, right? So concept comes,
As a change of character, bias changes,
1952
02:36:06,130 --> 02:36:09,710
and therefore a good trade is being
produced.
1953
02:36:12,050 --> 02:36:13,050
Okay.
1954
02:36:13,870 --> 02:36:14,870
What else?
1955
02:36:20,570 --> 02:36:26,890
Okay, so I'm just going to conclude here
with one last remark, and that's it.
1956
02:36:26,930 --> 02:36:28,790
I'm going to go and rest.
1957
02:36:31,850 --> 02:36:38,090
This comes from Rick, and he says, no
other way I would want to learn. This is
1958
02:36:38,090 --> 02:36:40,850
my life to trade. This is my job.
1959
02:36:42,390 --> 02:36:45,490
And I love this because I'm the same
way.
1960
02:36:45,830 --> 02:36:52,570
You guys could definitely feel this, you
know, with each session that, you know,
1961
02:36:52,590 --> 02:36:58,290
I've developed quite a passion for
trading, for markets, for this material,
1962
02:36:58,290 --> 02:37:00,050
way how the logic works.
1963
02:37:00,710 --> 02:37:03,670
with all of those details and so on and
so forth.
1964
02:37:03,910 --> 02:37:10,830
And I definitely know that there are
quite a few people in this class
1965
02:37:10,830 --> 02:37:16,570
who have the same passion, the same kind
of like dedication, commitment to this
1966
02:37:16,570 --> 02:37:18,890
material, which is great.
1967
02:37:19,090 --> 02:37:25,490
But I also do not want to oversee other
students who maybe do not have the same
1968
02:37:25,490 --> 02:37:28,350
amount of time and the same type of...
1969
02:37:28,680 --> 02:37:33,800
Commitment just because of how the life
is, right? There are other things, more
1970
02:37:33,800 --> 02:37:39,320
important things than this event. There
are families, there are jobs, there are
1971
02:37:39,320 --> 02:37:45,520
other things that you, you know,
responsible for. So totally get this. Do
1972
02:37:45,520 --> 02:37:47,620
stress about that at all.
1973
02:37:50,000 --> 02:37:52,320
And go at your own pace.
1974
02:37:52,540 --> 02:37:55,360
The key is just to stay in the system.
1975
02:37:55,770 --> 02:38:01,650
to stay in this educational system and
try to get the most value out of this
1976
02:38:01,650 --> 02:38:08,470
education. So therefore, come to the
class, be present, be conscious when
1977
02:38:08,470 --> 02:38:09,910
you are in this class.
1978
02:38:10,370 --> 02:38:15,370
This is one thing that when you come to
this class and you're tired and your
1979
02:38:15,370 --> 02:38:18,270
time is limited, do yourself a favor.
1980
02:38:18,490 --> 02:38:23,950
Stay conscious for this two and a half
hours and stay present because...
1981
02:38:24,320 --> 02:38:27,440
You're going to gain a lot of knowledge
and you're going to gain a lot of
1982
02:38:27,440 --> 02:38:28,440
material from this.
1983
02:38:29,080 --> 02:38:34,620
But if you're not paying attention, then
it's kind of like you're there, but
1984
02:38:34,620 --> 02:38:35,620
you're not there.
1985
02:38:36,380 --> 02:38:41,640
And then if you can't re -watch the
video again, that's fine. If you can't
1986
02:38:41,640 --> 02:38:43,900
the homework fully, that's fine as well.
1987
02:38:44,980 --> 02:38:49,500
Maybe in the future you could re -listen
to the course, re -watch the course,
1988
02:38:49,640 --> 02:38:51,100
and do those homeworks.
1989
02:38:52,279 --> 02:38:57,000
I've been teaching for quite some time,
and at the beginning of my teaching
1990
02:38:57,000 --> 02:38:59,700
career, I was so strict with students.
1991
02:38:59,960 --> 02:39:06,320
And then it took me a time to understand
that people have
1992
02:39:06,320 --> 02:39:11,260
their own lives, and there are some
things that are much more important than
1993
02:39:11,260 --> 02:39:16,700
this. So define your commitment and
involvement in this course by yourself.
1994
02:39:16,700 --> 02:39:20,720
me know how you're doing this, and I
support you all the way.
1995
02:39:21,100 --> 02:39:22,440
with whatever path you choose.
1996
02:39:22,800 --> 02:39:26,160
With this, guys, I'm going to say good
night.
1997
02:39:27,200 --> 02:39:33,260
I'm going to try to post this recording
tonight, and then I'll see you all next
1998
02:39:33,260 --> 02:39:35,460
week on Monday. Send me your homework.
1999
02:39:35,740 --> 02:39:39,360
Thank you, guys, and I'll talk to you
later.
2000
02:39:40,000 --> 02:39:41,280
Cameron, thank you so much.
2001
02:39:41,500 --> 02:39:42,500
Bye -bye.
178562
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