All language subtitles for Session 03-WTC (January 21, 2019)
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1
00:00:02,570 --> 00:00:08,870
Hello, everyone. Today is January 21st,
and this is our third session of the
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00:00:08,870 --> 00:00:09,910
Wyckoff Trading Course.
3
00:00:11,190 --> 00:00:15,750
Thank you for all of your emails and for
all of the comments that I've received
4
00:00:15,750 --> 00:00:19,830
about the first two classes. You could
see some of the comments from students
5
00:00:19,830 --> 00:00:21,650
the left side of the slide.
6
00:00:22,090 --> 00:00:27,190
I'm really excited that I hear a lot of
excitement from you guys.
7
00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:34,900
obviously always energizes me, you know,
to go on and to think that this is
8
00:00:34,900 --> 00:00:39,760
going to be a great cycle. And I see how
you guys are communicating with me. It
9
00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:46,560
took me a few hours to go through the
homework. So I've actually was
10
00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:51,420
able, you know, today and usually Monday
is my preparation day for the course
11
00:00:51,420 --> 00:00:53,460
since the morning.
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00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,940
you know, to go through all of the
emails, and there were quite a few. So
13
00:00:57,940 --> 00:00:58,940
you for sending those.
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00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:04,099
Thank you for all of the kind words, by
the way, that you sent me, you know,
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00:01:04,099 --> 00:01:09,340
about the course and, you know, the
knowledge that we present in this
16
00:01:09,340 --> 00:01:10,420
I really appreciate that.
17
00:01:12,460 --> 00:01:19,180
I also was somewhat impressed because
the first homework
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00:01:19,180 --> 00:01:21,320
where people sent me their labeling,
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It kind of gives me an understanding of
what the cycle is going to be and how
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00:01:27,790 --> 00:01:31,450
people are going to be in this course
and so on and so forth. So I was really
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00:01:31,450 --> 00:01:36,170
impressed with the level of
understanding of the material. That's
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Secondly, how you guys are picking up
the new knowledge and applying this.
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00:01:40,450 --> 00:01:44,690
Having said this, there are obviously
tons of adjustments that we will do,
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00:01:44,690 --> 00:01:45,850
we will need to do.
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Not a finished product yet by any means,
so there is a lot of work in front of
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00:01:55,010 --> 00:01:57,490
us. But still, such a great start.
27
00:01:57,750 --> 00:02:03,670
And today, specifically with the
homework, I want to point your attention
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identification of phase boundaries.
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00:02:08,079 --> 00:02:13,100
almost in each of the homeworks, we had
something to adjust around the
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00:02:13,100 --> 00:02:15,020
boundaries of the phases.
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00:02:15,260 --> 00:02:20,020
And obviously, you know, there's
something that I need to give you. So we
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00:02:20,020 --> 00:02:21,020
will...
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00:02:21,710 --> 00:02:26,350
We will definitely go through some of
the theoretical material where I will
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you how to identify phase C, how to
identify the boundaries, you know,
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different phases and so on and so forth.
And then, you know, we'll go through
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all the stuff today as well.
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Next session is January 28th. We are
going to continue with the...
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price structure.
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00:02:44,350 --> 00:02:51,230
So these homeworks are fundamental tools
for us to start learning about
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phase analysis. So that's going to be
our focus.
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And we will continue with that on
January 28th.
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00:03:00,730 --> 00:03:05,870
All right. As usual, all of our classes
are for educational purposes only. Stop
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00:03:05,870 --> 00:03:07,550
your video. Read the disclaimer.
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00:03:10,380 --> 00:03:16,360
And then today, actually, let me do one
thing, guys, before I'm realizing that
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I'm actually slightly unprepared. Do you
guys see my screen right now?
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00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:35,760
Okay, yeah, you should not be seeing my
screen right now.
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Okay.
48
00:03:40,110 --> 00:03:41,110
Okay, great.
49
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Hold on a second.
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Okay, awesome.
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Okay, great.
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And now we should be back.
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All right, yes. So we are on the
question from Lee.
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Okay, awesome.
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00:04:01,830 --> 00:04:07,270
Thank you, guys. It's just like one
minor technical detail that I had to
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00:04:07,270 --> 00:04:08,270
care of.
57
00:04:09,370 --> 00:04:12,670
This is a question from the student in
this class.
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Why am I posting this slide here? And
why are we discussing this question? I
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00:04:20,269 --> 00:04:25,230
usually email you guys the instructions
about the questions as such.
60
00:04:25,570 --> 00:04:30,990
If you send me a question that requires
a lot of explanation, most likely I will
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00:04:30,990 --> 00:04:33,310
not be able to answer it over the email.
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00:04:33,650 --> 00:04:37,970
But I really, really would like to
answer this email in the classroom
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00:04:37,970 --> 00:04:42,980
environment. And there is a specific
reason of why I want to do this. If I am
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00:04:42,980 --> 00:04:48,780
spending time answering your email
question, and let's say I spent maybe
65
00:04:48,780 --> 00:04:53,440
minutes on that, you know, let's just
suppose that this is a big question,
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what I'm not doing is I'm not explaining
the same concepts to other people in
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the classroom.
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00:05:00,100 --> 00:05:04,320
So what is the best to do is to have the
question.
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00:05:05,020 --> 00:05:09,260
that is in line with the content that we
are covering right now.
70
00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:12,400
So Lee is sending the question that is
very close.
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00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:17,080
It's a little bit on the borderline here
because we're going to discuss some
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supply and demand, but I think it's a
really good preview for our second month
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00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,520
when we will be diving in into the
supply and demand concepts.
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00:05:24,820 --> 00:05:31,800
Plus, Lee is taking the chart from our
class. This is the chart
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of Yahoo.
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00:05:34,330 --> 00:05:39,850
Questions like this, sometimes I will
subjectively put into the content of the
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class. We also will have one session.
The last session will all be devoted to
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00:05:44,650 --> 00:05:49,770
&A. And I know that you have so many
questions about the homework right now.
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00:05:49,770 --> 00:05:54,790
will go through those as well. And
usually homework questions, those
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00:05:54,790 --> 00:06:01,530
need to be addressed during the next
class, you know,
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00:06:01,530 --> 00:06:02,610
with the homework review.
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00:06:03,370 --> 00:06:10,370
So we've talked about Yahoo, and we were
talking about Yahoo in the context of
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a change of character. This was the
first place where in the trend we saw
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the change of character has happened. A
much larger reaction to the downside.
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00:06:20,190 --> 00:06:23,830
There is not a lot of supply that's
coming in. It's kind of flat, I would
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say. But the result to the downside
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has increased.
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even though supply has not increased.
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So what can we conclude?
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00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:39,700
Well, we're still thinking that this
could lead to a change of character and
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therefore a trading range. And then we
need to understand what kind of bias
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we're going to have in that trading
range.
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As I mentioned to you in the previous
class, and this is the way how I
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00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:55,360
my communication, you know, and kind of
like my integrity with you guys.
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Even here at these two spots, I'm
thinking that the bias is still to the
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I'm not sure if anybody could persuade
me otherwise at this point of time. I
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00:07:08,810 --> 00:07:13,670
just don't see any increase in the
volume signature, maybe slightly more
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but the result is even less than the
first change of character.
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Less supply on the next reaction, only
really one day of selling and then just,
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00:07:22,610 --> 00:07:23,419
you know.
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inactivity by sellers and more
deterioration on of the volume and the
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we still would be thinking that the bias
is up here and our position is going to
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be here i mentioned that probably we
would be closing somewhere here on this
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00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:43,880
and this is how we come back into this
trading range so and then the question
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00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:49,980
the question is about two spots or two
bars or rather you know two places
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one and number two So we already see how
the price has deteriorated below two
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00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:58,620
levels of the support that were so
important.
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00:07:59,260 --> 00:08:04,740
One of them was in the middle of the
range and was still, please note, the
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00:08:04,740 --> 00:08:06,020
was still to the upside.
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00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:11,460
So now at the failure of this, we have a
couple of failures actually.
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00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:16,360
So the first one comes as an upthrust
and there is the first failure. The
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comes back into the range.
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00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:24,430
So at this spot, we're always thinking,
A sign of strength rally or an upthrust
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00:08:24,430 --> 00:08:27,070
situation? And we'll talk about this
more.
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00:08:28,270 --> 00:08:33,070
As the price comes back into the trading
range, that becomes a failure, and
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00:08:33,070 --> 00:08:35,870
therefore we start talking about the
upthrust.
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An upthrust could be a function, could
be a part of the reaccumulation, that's
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00:08:42,250 --> 00:08:44,530
true, but also an upthrust.
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00:08:44,830 --> 00:08:46,510
could be a part of the distribution.
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So the next thing that we do after the
failure is we want to see where the
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00:08:51,830 --> 00:08:57,870
will go, what kind of price
deterioration we will have, and what
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character behind this deterioration
we're going to see.
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00:09:00,910 --> 00:09:07,290
So we're seeing that the price is
committing below local support,
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00:09:07,430 --> 00:09:11,530
and by itself, it's a weakness.
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00:09:12,270 --> 00:09:14,630
at least a short -term weakness for now.
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00:09:15,930 --> 00:09:20,410
And then we see the increase in the
effort behind the increase in the
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00:09:20,750 --> 00:09:25,590
So that suggests to us that there is
some kind of short -term bearish bias
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00:09:25,590 --> 00:09:27,670
we should be aware of at this point.
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00:09:28,090 --> 00:09:32,690
The rally, which is going to be an LPSY
rally here in the middle of the range,
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00:09:32,890 --> 00:09:39,670
is very weak. It doesn't even come to
one half of the move to the downside
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00:09:39,670 --> 00:09:40,670
that we've seen.
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00:09:41,430 --> 00:09:42,750
since the upthrust.
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So again, more weakness and then a
continuation of that weakness and a
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commitment even below the previous
support line.
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So we are in a sign of weakness type of
environment.
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Supply is increasing.
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And as we go into those two spots,
number one and number two, we are
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the new trading range that already has
some bias that we perceive at this point
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as the downside bias.
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Why is that?
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Well, we've seen a change of character.
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This is the largest reaction to the
downside than what we've seen before.
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00:10:25,550 --> 00:10:29,410
And now we are trying to confirm that
change of character. How are we
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that? Well, we need to have a rally,
LPSY rally, last point of supply rally.
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that will fail at some point. At which
point would it fail?
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Well, we want for the distribution, this
rally to be so weak that it cannot
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overcome one half of the trading range
or the height of the trading range.
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00:10:48,790 --> 00:10:54,930
And we kind of see it here, right? So
the price goes up with the enthusiasm to
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the upside and comes to this value zone
right here.
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00:11:01,420 --> 00:11:02,600
What do we have here?
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Acceptance of this level or rejection of
this level? Supply coming in at the
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00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:13,200
highs of this resistance or supply is
coming in and being observed or supply
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00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:18,600
not coming in? Well, we definitely see
that there are some spots, for instance,
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like right here, where, first of all,
after the short -term break of a trend,
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00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,420
we see that supply is actually
increasing.
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00:11:29,150 --> 00:11:34,490
And this, I wonder if, Lee, you have
seen this
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00:11:34,490 --> 00:11:41,330
spread and this increase in the spread
as well. Because it's all related
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00:11:41,330 --> 00:11:47,730
to the other two that you've mentioned.
Actually, another one right here.
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00:11:47,910 --> 00:11:51,270
So let's kind of observe what is
happening at this spot.
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The first one.
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The second one.
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Third one.
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And then the fourth one.
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Actually, we could even do this. We
could even look at this and this.
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00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:12,760
So one of the things that we notice
right away is
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we want to notice the areas where supply
has
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come and supply has increased and it's
started producing either
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a stopping action, some kind of reversal
action,
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and then synchronicity with
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the increasing result to the downside.
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00:12:44,500 --> 00:12:48,680
And that's kind of like a sequence of
how supply is going to come in.
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Supply is not necessarily right away
it's going to reverse the whole blast.
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It's just impossible because
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With the uptrend that we have had, there
is a specific sentiment that exists
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00:13:05,340 --> 00:13:10,740
in market participants' minds at this
point of time as to what should happen.
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We should be in the uptrend. We see this
from the sentiment we could derive from
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how the price moves and from the volume
signature.
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00:13:19,900 --> 00:13:21,600
Everybody is on board.
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00:13:22,420 --> 00:13:25,640
Nobody is getting out of this position.
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00:13:26,430 --> 00:13:31,750
the first time when we could see a more
meaningful getting out of this position
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00:13:31,750 --> 00:13:37,130
is going to be in this area right here.
And this is why, until then, we're still
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00:13:37,130 --> 00:13:42,270
thinking that we might be in the
reaccumulation because the texture for
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00:13:42,270 --> 00:13:47,090
price and the volume is such that it
dictates that the price most likely is
184
00:13:47,090 --> 00:13:48,230
going to continue to the upside.
185
00:13:48,650 --> 00:13:52,430
Now, as it continues to the upside, this
is the...
186
00:13:52,670 --> 00:13:56,290
where for the first time we're
experiencing some increase of the
187
00:13:57,110 --> 00:14:03,330
And for the first time, it's not only
stopping the price from moving further
188
00:14:03,450 --> 00:14:07,010
but it actually synchronized with the
result to the downside.
189
00:14:08,090 --> 00:14:14,870
So this is the first area of significant
institutional selling that we
190
00:14:14,870 --> 00:14:21,350
see. Now, as we go through the sign of
weakness, then we see how supply also
191
00:14:21,350 --> 00:14:22,350
comes
192
00:14:22,650 --> 00:14:24,250
at the lower level.
193
00:14:24,550 --> 00:14:29,190
So we are kind of now in a different
value zone.
194
00:14:30,910 --> 00:14:35,630
And this value zone, because we're
looking at the distribution, is going to
195
00:14:35,630 --> 00:14:38,550
described as the value zone for weak
hands.
196
00:14:38,830 --> 00:14:42,830
This is just a definition of the work of
trading course that I created, you
197
00:14:42,830 --> 00:14:44,290
know, for you guys and for myself.
198
00:14:44,650 --> 00:14:46,670
That's how we would define the value
zone.
199
00:14:46,910 --> 00:14:50,510
So what is happening here? I'm coming
back to this question by Lee.
200
00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:56,860
I would like to understand what was
actually happening at points number one
201
00:14:56,860 --> 00:14:57,860
two.
202
00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:02,420
To understand what's happening at these
two points, we need to understand what
203
00:15:02,420 --> 00:15:08,560
happened prior, and we're kind of going
to this. So the value zone for weak
204
00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:10,960
hands, what does it mean?
205
00:15:12,060 --> 00:15:17,480
It means that at this spot right here
and at this spot right here,
206
00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:22,840
Weak hands are buyers.
207
00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:26,300
And if they are buyers, what do they
see?
208
00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:29,680
The weak hands are seeing some kind of
value.
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00:15:30,740 --> 00:15:35,380
So that's a very interesting thought.
How could they see value at this point
210
00:15:35,380 --> 00:15:36,380
time?
211
00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,520
The trend has been broken.
212
00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:42,200
The stock went into the consolidation.
213
00:15:42,420 --> 00:15:44,880
The stock is at the support level.
214
00:15:46,260 --> 00:15:47,840
Wouldn't they feel more fear?
215
00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:50,380
to come in and to establish this
position.
216
00:15:50,740 --> 00:15:56,920
It's a very interesting observation
about the weak hands because
217
00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:03,180
the weak hands are going to be getting
in into the trend either very, very late
218
00:16:03,180 --> 00:16:07,500
and they will be profitable.
219
00:16:07,900 --> 00:16:14,740
So weak hands getting in and they will
be profitable at this
220
00:16:14,740 --> 00:16:15,740
point of time.
221
00:16:16,430 --> 00:16:19,690
And then this is going to be the first
group of weak hands.
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00:16:19,910 --> 00:16:26,750
The second group of weak hands is going
to be someone who maybe sold their
223
00:16:26,750 --> 00:16:28,130
stock and did not participate.
224
00:16:28,430 --> 00:16:29,430
That's number one.
225
00:16:29,770 --> 00:16:34,530
Secondly, maybe sold their stock, did
not participate, but then got out.
226
00:16:35,050 --> 00:16:41,470
And then as the price goes into the
consolidation and especially goes back
227
00:16:41,470 --> 00:16:43,510
produces some kind of
228
00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:48,340
you know, move to the downside within
the confines of the structure.
229
00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:51,440
So this is the structure that we would
be looking at at the time.
230
00:16:52,020 --> 00:16:57,280
The weak hands are going to see some
value and they're going to say, this was
231
00:16:57,280 --> 00:17:03,020
leadership stock and I didn't really
participate. I didn't, you know,
232
00:17:03,020 --> 00:17:08,140
participate in this whole trend. But now
that we are at the support, this is
233
00:17:08,140 --> 00:17:09,760
where I'm going to come in and I'm going
to buy.
234
00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:13,680
And that's how they see that value at
this spot.
235
00:17:14,569 --> 00:17:19,069
They're coming in and they're buying,
and because they don't have a lot of
236
00:17:19,069 --> 00:17:24,190
strength behind it, the rally that is
being produced is not that great.
237
00:17:25,490 --> 00:17:32,410
And what else is happening, even more
importantly, is that into the strength
238
00:17:32,410 --> 00:17:38,250
weekends at this point, when they see
that value, institutions are going to
239
00:17:38,250 --> 00:17:39,250
into that strength.
240
00:17:40,570 --> 00:17:43,490
And we are seeing this later on.
241
00:17:43,870 --> 00:17:50,450
in the selling where supply is
increasing on increased volume signature
242
00:17:50,450 --> 00:17:56,290
increased down spread look at the spread
right here this is the largest spread
243
00:17:56,290 --> 00:18:01,890
on all in this whole rally it just tells
us that the rally is done and once the
244
00:18:01,890 --> 00:18:06,130
rally is done you instantly know that
this is the high of the rally and then
245
00:18:06,130 --> 00:18:09,950
start making your assessment and
deductions as to what kind of
246
00:18:10,700 --> 00:18:14,580
was it in the relationship to the whole
formation, to the height of this
247
00:18:14,580 --> 00:18:19,180
formation? And you see that it's only
one half of the range that this really
248
00:18:19,180 --> 00:18:22,940
traveled, and then it met so much
supply, so much selling.
249
00:18:24,100 --> 00:18:29,260
Okay, well, then we go back into the
same area. Again, we can't, thinking
250
00:18:29,260 --> 00:18:35,140
this is the new attempt to go up, that
is going to result in the overcoming of
251
00:18:35,140 --> 00:18:36,140
the long -term resistance.
252
00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:42,000
And what do we see as we come to the
same resistance point? We're seeing how
253
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:43,820
supply is still increasing locally.
254
00:18:44,340 --> 00:18:50,560
And not only that, the downward result
is increasing as well. So that becomes a
255
00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:54,980
reversal again. And you start
questioning, we've done this two times
256
00:18:55,780 --> 00:18:59,900
And every time that we've come to this
level, what happens?
257
00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:05,440
Some institutions are selling at the
resistance point. So what is their bias?
258
00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:10,520
Their bias is to the downside if they're
selling, right? We see that from the
259
00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:16,860
increased volume signature only, you
know, usually big institutions will
260
00:19:16,860 --> 00:19:17,900
this type of signature.
261
00:19:18,700 --> 00:19:24,300
So therefore, we are thinking about
confirmation of this bias.
262
00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:31,600
And as we go down on the next reaction,
we're seeing a sign
263
00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:32,600
of weakness.
264
00:19:33,020 --> 00:19:34,960
The price commits below.
265
00:19:35,550 --> 00:19:39,110
Yes, it comes back. So there is a spring
type of action.
266
00:19:40,750 --> 00:19:46,510
But we know that what's selling here is
selling here an ability to overcome one
267
00:19:46,510 --> 00:19:49,130
half of the height of the range and then
a sign of weakness.
268
00:19:49,470 --> 00:19:51,090
So this could be just temporary.
269
00:19:51,590 --> 00:19:58,530
And we could be just somewhere still in
phase B at this point of
270
00:19:58,530 --> 00:19:59,530
this whole range.
271
00:19:59,950 --> 00:20:04,970
So what do we see next? We see the next
attempt, and this is where we're coming
272
00:20:04,970 --> 00:20:07,170
in into one and two, those two points.
273
00:20:08,970 --> 00:20:14,250
And let's see what happens. This is the
highest volume signature on this bar,
274
00:20:14,370 --> 00:20:16,570
and this is probably just some kind of
event.
275
00:20:17,490 --> 00:20:21,830
And there is a lot of optimism on this
bar.
276
00:20:22,610 --> 00:20:26,030
Again, we could see this from the volume
signature, and we could see this from
277
00:20:26,030 --> 00:20:28,750
the price signature. This is most
likely.
278
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:35,740
and this is the weekly chart, this is
most likely some kind of earnings and so
279
00:20:35,740 --> 00:20:41,580
forth. And the biggest question that
actually Lee is asking here, somewhere
280
00:20:41,580 --> 00:20:48,120
the description, he's saying that so
much movement to the upside, so much
281
00:20:48,120 --> 00:20:51,200
effort, yet what do we do?
282
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:53,900
What is the final result?
283
00:20:54,750 --> 00:21:00,110
And to understand the final result, we
need to understand the original intent
284
00:21:00,110 --> 00:21:02,590
intention behind this move.
285
00:21:03,170 --> 00:21:09,130
If there is so much enthusiasm behind
it, the intention was to overcome the
286
00:21:09,130 --> 00:21:14,350
previous points of resistance that we
were not able to overcome.
287
00:21:16,970 --> 00:21:22,570
And then what do we do with all of this
enthusiasm that is even more than what
288
00:21:22,570 --> 00:21:23,570
we've seen before?
289
00:21:24,140 --> 00:21:26,180
we can't even go to the same level.
290
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:33,760
So what looks that this something, this
291
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:40,380
move to the upside with so much strength
and optimism, looking so bullish at
292
00:21:40,380 --> 00:21:46,480
this point is actually showing us an
ability to repeat the same bullish
293
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,660
that we've seen before on the previous
rallies.
294
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,360
Is this bullish or bearish?
295
00:21:51,850 --> 00:21:53,490
Why didn't it reach resistance?
296
00:21:54,870 --> 00:21:57,310
Maybe this is the correct question to
ask.
297
00:21:57,530 --> 00:22:00,190
Why didn't it reach resistance? What do
you guys think?
298
00:22:00,990 --> 00:22:05,710
Well, my thought here is that it didn't
reach resistance because someone was
299
00:22:05,710 --> 00:22:09,170
selling into the strength.
300
00:22:09,950 --> 00:22:15,870
And if you think about the tactics of
the seal here at this spot, at the point
301
00:22:15,870 --> 00:22:16,870
of the resistance,
302
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:21,920
they are selling into the strength of
weak hands twice already.
303
00:22:22,540 --> 00:22:27,460
And now they are selling for the third
time at the lower level.
304
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:33,620
So this means automatically that the
bias is still being confirmed as the
305
00:22:33,620 --> 00:22:34,620
downward bias.
306
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:40,700
and that now the value zone is slightly
lower than what we've seen before.
307
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:46,300
So when point number two comes, which
seems like a very logical diminishing
308
00:22:46,300 --> 00:22:50,560
volume signature, so we might be
thinking that, okay, supply is
309
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:52,400
here, which is correct as well.
310
00:22:52,740 --> 00:22:59,320
But what's not happening is that we're
not going anywhere with all of this
311
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:04,420
increase of what seems to kind of like
an amateur eye, a bullish scenario.
312
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:10,540
there is still an attempt to go up, and
yet we can't reach even the previous
313
00:23:10,540 --> 00:23:16,080
level. So again, we are just confirming
the bias to the downside at this point
314
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:21,880
of time, and we are interpreting the
increase of the volume signature as
315
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:28,580
an increase of the supply over
316
00:23:28,580 --> 00:23:30,960
average supply.
317
00:23:34,540 --> 00:23:40,900
And then we see that supply is
diminishing over point number one.
318
00:23:41,100 --> 00:23:43,580
And that tells us a different story.
319
00:23:44,940 --> 00:23:50,680
It takes less of the supply to produce
more bearish results.
320
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:56,740
And by more bearish results, I mean
inability of the price to actually
321
00:23:56,900 --> 00:24:00,940
you know, even the same, to touch the
same resistance or create a higher high.
322
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,640
So it's a more bearish result.
323
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:05,700
on less supply.
324
00:24:06,060 --> 00:24:07,320
What does it tell us?
325
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:14,220
It tells us that we don't need so much
supply anymore to push the price down.
326
00:24:14,360 --> 00:24:20,920
And at this point of time, demand is so
exhausted that all of the next rallies
327
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,380
are not going to be that big.
328
00:24:24,190 --> 00:24:28,370
And we see it with the next rally, with
the next rally. And we're seeing how
329
00:24:28,370 --> 00:24:33,690
supply is diminishing even more and yet
result to the downside is increasing
330
00:24:33,690 --> 00:24:34,589
even more.
331
00:24:34,590 --> 00:24:41,430
So this tells us that there is a poor
demand and diminishing supply
332
00:24:41,430 --> 00:24:46,770
signature on the background where the
price
333
00:24:46,770 --> 00:24:50,270
is moving to the downside.
334
00:24:51,950 --> 00:24:53,150
And that...
335
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,940
is ease of movement.
336
00:24:57,900 --> 00:25:03,680
On diminishing supply signature, we are
able to move the price down.
337
00:25:04,260 --> 00:25:05,440
Ease of movement.
338
00:25:05,820 --> 00:25:10,680
And that gives us a timing to initiate
the position.
339
00:25:12,540 --> 00:25:18,820
Why? Well, because again, demand is so
poor, we know that demand is not a
340
00:25:18,820 --> 00:25:19,820
anymore.
341
00:25:20,129 --> 00:25:24,890
And even though supply goes down, the
price still goes down. So we're just
342
00:25:24,890 --> 00:25:28,670
to capitulate at some point. And we're
usually going to capitulate around the
343
00:25:28,670 --> 00:25:32,470
point of support. So here's that final
institutional capitulation.
344
00:25:32,670 --> 00:25:37,350
It doesn't have a lot of supply
signature behind it. So that just tells
345
00:25:37,350 --> 00:25:39,010
most likely we're going to stop soon.
346
00:25:39,230 --> 00:25:42,870
We're not going to continue for a long
time to the downside.
347
00:25:43,750 --> 00:25:46,450
All right. Well, hopefully this is...
348
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:49,800
a good explanation for you and for
everyone.
349
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:56,160
So really good question. This is not
necessarily the question that I was
350
00:25:56,160 --> 00:26:02,540
expecting at this point, but I'm really
encouraged by the, you know, the
351
00:26:02,540 --> 00:26:07,920
questions that are coming and, you know,
I'm really happy that we're starting
352
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:12,460
with this. By the way, guys, today's
class is going to go until six. We have
353
00:26:12,460 --> 00:26:16,180
lot of material, so I'm kind of already,
for the next probably five sessions,
354
00:26:16,360 --> 00:26:20,590
we're going to, go up to 6 o 'clock,
unless I have some kind of appointment
355
00:26:20,590 --> 00:26:21,810
arrangements after this.
356
00:26:22,290 --> 00:26:25,150
Lots of material, so we're going to
cover a lot today.
357
00:26:26,670 --> 00:26:27,670
Questions.
358
00:26:28,030 --> 00:26:33,570
What about effort in the result if we
see accumulation at the right side from
359
00:26:33,570 --> 00:26:39,010
2002, May to September of 2003? Only one
year are accumulating.
360
00:26:39,270 --> 00:26:44,810
2003 to 2005, an uptrend, not a powerful
effort in an accumulation.
361
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:46,960
Okay.
362
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:54,260
Okay, so let me just begin to understand
this question.
363
00:26:57,580 --> 00:26:59,380
So what's the question, Eric?
364
00:27:07,860 --> 00:27:13,180
Okay, so this, 2005, and this.
365
00:27:14,250 --> 00:27:18,110
Yeah, I'm not sure if I understand the
question, Eric. Let's just kind of
366
00:27:18,110 --> 00:27:19,790
rephrase it. Let's just think about
this.
367
00:27:21,990 --> 00:27:28,810
Okay, meanwhile, small time accumulated.
You mean
368
00:27:28,810 --> 00:27:32,030
this area right here as a cause?
369
00:27:33,930 --> 00:27:35,970
Or this as a cause?
370
00:27:37,090 --> 00:27:39,370
Okay. So, well...
371
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,980
We could definitely apply something
like, you know, PNF, try to see what
372
00:27:45,980 --> 00:27:49,920
of, you know, objective we're going to
see here. We could see if this could
373
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:51,640
match this objective as well.
374
00:27:52,260 --> 00:27:57,240
At this point of time, you know, we're
not talking about the PNF. I'm going to
375
00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:02,500
give you some references, but, you know,
for those of you who are not familiar,
376
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:07,400
you know, with PNF, please go to our
website.
377
00:28:08,620 --> 00:28:12,300
A couple of things that you could do on
the YouTube channel.
378
00:28:12,740 --> 00:28:17,600
The YouTube channel has two videos right
now by Bruce on PNF.
379
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:19,880
Those are basic videos.
380
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:28,840
So go there. And then after that, go to
our website, WyckoffAnalytics .com.
381
00:28:29,020 --> 00:28:31,720
And there are on -demand products.
382
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:35,340
You could find part one and part two.
383
00:28:40,190 --> 00:28:45,610
of the two courses that we conducted
together with Bruce on the PNF. So I
384
00:28:45,610 --> 00:28:46,710
recommend just that path.
385
00:28:47,630 --> 00:28:48,630
Okay, great.
386
00:28:50,310 --> 00:28:57,030
Let's move on and let's just go through
the material for today.
387
00:28:57,210 --> 00:29:00,090
So today, what are we going to discuss
today?
388
00:29:00,610 --> 00:29:05,690
This is going to be the major work for
us today to go through the Home Depot
389
00:29:05,690 --> 00:29:07,270
homework review.
390
00:29:08,110 --> 00:29:13,130
There will be a lot of questions that I
will answer.
391
00:29:13,570 --> 00:29:17,930
This is the first, well, not the first
time, but this is the time where I'm
392
00:29:17,930 --> 00:29:19,430
expecting a lot of volunteers.
393
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,680
We are going to put on the chart and
we're just going to go through your
394
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:29,820
and then we're going to start adjusting
that logic as to how are we viewing the
395
00:29:29,820 --> 00:29:33,820
chart, how are we identifying specific
events, how are we thinking about
396
00:29:33,820 --> 00:29:38,040
labeling, and then how do we think about
the tactics and where would we be
397
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:42,380
thinking about opening the position and
so on and so forth. So this might take
398
00:29:42,380 --> 00:29:48,000
even two sessions, but we will do this.
As we go through the review, I'm going
399
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:53,850
to... After each of the slides, each of
the exercises, we're going to have some
400
00:29:53,850 --> 00:29:54,990
kind of theoretical material.
401
00:29:55,290 --> 00:29:59,410
And the main thing that I want you guys
to think about, and this is what I see
402
00:29:59,410 --> 00:30:02,490
in your homework, is the phase
boundaries. That's number one.
403
00:30:02,970 --> 00:30:04,690
Secondly, phase C identification.
404
00:30:05,270 --> 00:30:08,470
And then everything else, we'll
definitely cover everything else.
405
00:30:08,850 --> 00:30:14,630
If we have time, we will talk about the
distribution. If we don't have time, I'm
406
00:30:14,630 --> 00:30:15,630
going to give you that.
407
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:18,020
homework on the distribution.
408
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:20,940
I'm going to give you the slides on the
distribution.
409
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:25,700
Your homework will be to read those
slides through, to understand all of the
410
00:30:25,700 --> 00:30:31,820
work of events in the distribution, to
know the characteristics of those
411
00:30:32,100 --> 00:30:36,920
and then apply them to the homework. And
then we're going to do the review, the
412
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:42,280
same review as we've done with Home
Depot, most likely maybe not in session
413
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:44,240
number four, but maybe session number
five.
414
00:30:46,899 --> 00:30:49,320
So that's going to be the plan for
today.
415
00:30:49,820 --> 00:30:56,700
All right. With that, let's start our
homework. And I need a volunteer. So say
416
00:30:56,700 --> 00:30:58,300
yes, and I'm going to unmute you.
417
00:31:00,300 --> 00:31:02,920
And let's see how that's going to go.
Okay.
418
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:08,940
Let's go to Rami.
419
00:31:09,780 --> 00:31:12,880
Rami. Am I pronouncing your name
correctly?
420
00:31:13,900 --> 00:31:15,040
Rama is fine.
421
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:17,640
Rama. Okay, Rama. Almost like Roma.
422
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:20,400
My name is Roma, actually.
423
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:25,060
Right. My short name, so Rama. That's
very close. Okay, great.
424
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:30,040
All right, so let's look. We have three
trading ranges. By the way, guys, if you
425
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,780
haven't noticed, some of you have not
noticed, there is another one that I
426
00:31:33,780 --> 00:31:35,480
of wanted you to identify.
427
00:31:36,380 --> 00:31:41,800
And by the way, Rama, before we start
doing this, let me guys show you really
428
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:48,780
quickly something that could be helpful
to
429
00:31:48,780 --> 00:31:55,180
everyone. So I thought that this idea of
having
430
00:31:55,180 --> 00:32:01,880
homework slides as a separate file, that
was a suggestion by one of you. I
431
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:06,740
really appreciate this because I think
it saved a lot of time for a lot of you.
432
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:11,200
And I know how difficult it is to do the
first homework, especially if you
433
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,500
haven't worked with PowerPoint,
434
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:25,680
with PDFs and so forth. But I was really
pleased to see that everybody
435
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,260
is just kind of like getting a handle on
that.
436
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:32,860
So I want to show you a little bit of
what I do.
437
00:32:33,210 --> 00:32:37,770
with power charging and it will be
really quick so when you receive a slide
438
00:32:37,770 --> 00:32:42,670
me like this in in powerpoint why am i
saying power charging in powerpoint um
439
00:32:42,670 --> 00:32:47,650
you have multiple options here for
instance um under the first so you're
440
00:32:47,650 --> 00:32:52,930
to be a home tab and then look at all of
these small icons right here so for
441
00:32:52,930 --> 00:32:58,410
instance i could click this icon right
here and i could create any type of text
442
00:32:58,410 --> 00:33:04,230
that i want i could move this text and
put it you know, anywhere I want.
443
00:33:04,430 --> 00:33:08,250
So for instance, something like this.
I'm looking at the up thrust and I'm
444
00:33:08,250 --> 00:33:09,310
saying, this is an up thrust.
445
00:33:09,710 --> 00:33:14,430
You can copy that. You could create the
new one. You could change the color of
446
00:33:14,430 --> 00:33:19,550
it. Whatever you guys want to do. Then
you have, you know, any type of lines
447
00:33:19,550 --> 00:33:20,690
that you want to create.
448
00:33:21,750 --> 00:33:24,530
You can copy them, paste them.
449
00:33:24,730 --> 00:33:25,950
Here is your trend.
450
00:33:27,250 --> 00:33:28,610
What else? Phases.
451
00:33:28,910 --> 00:33:31,310
So I like to do this for phases.
452
00:33:32,890 --> 00:33:39,670
just to identify where phase is, and
then, you know, change
453
00:33:39,670 --> 00:33:45,330
maybe like the weight, and maybe even
change the way how it looks, and just
454
00:33:45,390 --> 00:33:51,950
okay, here is maybe like phase A,
somewhere here, right? And then just
455
00:33:51,950 --> 00:33:58,590
down here, and I could change the size
of it, and so on and so forth.
456
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:04,800
So there are quite a few useful things
that you could do here with the
457
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:11,400
PowerPoint. And it's actually quite easy
once you get a handle on all of those
458
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:16,980
things. So let's just practice. Let's
just kind of like go with this, you
459
00:34:16,980 --> 00:34:18,620
with next homework.
460
00:34:19,219 --> 00:34:25,520
And hopefully it will be easier for you
guys to use it. All right. Having said
461
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:28,260
this, Rama, let's come back to you.
462
00:34:29,690 --> 00:34:32,929
And let's look at trading range number
one.
463
00:34:33,750 --> 00:34:35,510
So it's this one right here.
464
00:34:35,770 --> 00:34:42,670
So one of the earliest questions in
labeling that I ask students
465
00:34:42,670 --> 00:34:49,330
is, I want them to understand that when
you look at the historical chart,
466
00:34:49,590 --> 00:34:56,290
you know already what the
467
00:34:56,290 --> 00:34:57,970
bias of the trading range is.
468
00:34:59,150 --> 00:35:05,370
And at this point in the course, this is
exactly what I want you to do. I want
469
00:35:05,370 --> 00:35:09,170
your minds not to think about the bias
first.
470
00:35:09,650 --> 00:35:15,570
I want you to understand that we have
been in the accumulation and that you
471
00:35:15,570 --> 00:35:17,710
to label accumulation correctly.
472
00:35:17,990 --> 00:35:19,370
This is the first task.
473
00:35:19,890 --> 00:35:26,430
As we progress to month number two,
that's when I'm going to start
474
00:35:26,430 --> 00:35:28,330
closing off the chart.
475
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:35,620
and then moving to the right and
unfolding the chart as swings or
476
00:35:35,620 --> 00:35:42,080
bars occur. And then you will have to
analyze the bias and the timing and so
477
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:45,880
and so forth. But for now, this is what
we do. We know that this is an
478
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:46,880
accumulation.
479
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:53,900
So in accumulation, the biggest question
that I have on labeling, what catches
480
00:35:53,900 --> 00:35:56,980
your eye, Rama, that is so distinctive?
481
00:35:57,470 --> 00:36:02,810
distinctively different than anything
else that you could identify right away?
482
00:36:05,370 --> 00:36:12,030
The arrest of the descent of the price
downwards, the arrest of the downward
483
00:36:12,030 --> 00:36:13,450
movement of the price.
484
00:36:14,010 --> 00:36:15,610
Okay, so what about it?
485
00:36:16,430 --> 00:36:23,110
And the price failing to go below that
particular level
486
00:36:23,110 --> 00:36:25,630
and then rising.
487
00:36:26,730 --> 00:36:29,830
from that level onwards, defining the
level of support.
488
00:36:30,170 --> 00:36:34,070
Okay. Well, let's take that thought and
let's just kind of develop this. So we
489
00:36:34,070 --> 00:36:40,610
were in the downtrend and then we
stopped that downtrend at this spot
490
00:36:40,610 --> 00:36:45,090
here. And then after that, we went into
the non -consolidating environment.
491
00:36:45,590 --> 00:36:50,410
We've talked about this in the last
session. So what is this stop in action?
492
00:36:50,610 --> 00:36:51,910
How would we call it?
493
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:53,840
How would Wicca call this event?
494
00:36:54,540 --> 00:36:55,640
Selling climax.
495
00:36:56,100 --> 00:36:58,300
Okay, selling climax, SC.
496
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:05,500
Are there characteristics of the selling
climax that we could identify here to
497
00:37:05,500 --> 00:37:07,700
confirm that indeed this was a selling
climax?
498
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:16,520
The range of the price bars, in other
words, the spread is wide,
499
00:37:16,660 --> 00:37:19,920
and there are multiple such bars.
500
00:37:21,720 --> 00:37:27,580
which essentially indicates to me that
the momentum to the downside
501
00:37:27,580 --> 00:37:34,300
and... Does it look panicky? Does it
look
502
00:37:34,300 --> 00:37:37,960
like somebody wants to get rid of their
thoughts right away?
503
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:39,660
Absolutely, yeah.
504
00:37:40,140 --> 00:37:45,060
So there is some kind of climactic run
that we are observing.
505
00:37:45,580 --> 00:37:46,580
Okay, great.
506
00:37:47,060 --> 00:37:52,170
We know... that you know from in
hindsight that the price has stopped
507
00:37:52,170 --> 00:37:55,690
is the first spot so usually it's going
to be associated with that climactic
508
00:37:55,690 --> 00:37:59,690
action with the selling climax okay if
this is a selling climax then the next
509
00:37:59,690 --> 00:38:06,410
rally is going to be what automatic
rally and then the next low
510
00:38:06,410 --> 00:38:11,970
is going to be what would be a secondary
test and that would conclude which
511
00:38:11,970 --> 00:38:14,950
phase phase a and the
512
00:38:15,710 --> 00:38:17,850
Intention behind phase A is what?
513
00:38:19,150 --> 00:38:25,910
The intention is to stop the downward
movement and then the beginning of
514
00:38:25,910 --> 00:38:28,070
potential trading range.
515
00:38:28,390 --> 00:38:34,970
Excellent. How else would we be
interpreting or calling this automatic
516
00:38:34,970 --> 00:38:41,150
and the subsequent secondary test that
is a successful secondary test?
517
00:38:45,039 --> 00:38:50,520
The secondary test and the automatic
rally would have
518
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:56,540
volume signatures that would suggest
that it's more likely
519
00:38:56,540 --> 00:38:59,820
to be an evolving trading range.
520
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:03,520
But also, yes, absolutely.
521
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:10,760
And here again, we are going from a
downtrend environment into a trading
522
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:11,718
range environment.
523
00:39:11,720 --> 00:39:13,900
Something should happen right here.
524
00:39:14,460 --> 00:39:15,620
some kind of change.
525
00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:17,220
How are we calling that?
526
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:23,980
That would be the price failing to
continue to go upwards.
527
00:39:24,300 --> 00:39:29,540
In other words, the automatic rally
being limited by a price level, which
528
00:39:29,540 --> 00:39:30,840
defines the resistance.
529
00:39:31,610 --> 00:39:35,730
Okay, so that's great. That's also
another great point. So automatic rally
530
00:39:35,730 --> 00:39:37,750
define an area of the resistance.
531
00:39:38,210 --> 00:39:43,290
I'm sorry, the level of the resistance.
And then selling climax will define the
532
00:39:43,290 --> 00:39:45,110
level of the support.
533
00:39:45,430 --> 00:39:50,310
And we would be thinking that the price
should consolidate around the mean in
534
00:39:50,310 --> 00:39:52,970
this area and be contained.
535
00:39:53,910 --> 00:39:58,770
Majority of the price should be
contained within these two levels.
536
00:39:59,050 --> 00:40:00,050
And it is.
537
00:40:00,430 --> 00:40:01,710
So that's great.
538
00:40:01,990 --> 00:40:08,710
The question that I'm also asking is
that switch between the downtrend to
539
00:40:08,710 --> 00:40:10,390
a consolidating environment.
540
00:40:10,650 --> 00:40:15,830
When we look at the rally, even the
automatic rally itself, and we could see
541
00:40:15,830 --> 00:40:21,390
even going into the upthrust right here
in potential phase B,
542
00:40:21,530 --> 00:40:25,610
is this the largest rally that we've
seen so far?
543
00:40:31,170 --> 00:40:37,930
No, on the way down, this is the third
such rally that we have seen so far.
544
00:40:38,190 --> 00:40:42,610
I'm not sure about that. So this is the
high of this move to the downside,
545
00:40:42,970 --> 00:40:46,910
right? So we have rally number one. We
have rally number two.
546
00:40:47,830 --> 00:40:52,150
There are quite a few here, so all of
those two. And then look at this rally
547
00:40:52,150 --> 00:40:53,109
right here.
548
00:40:53,110 --> 00:40:57,410
Is this the largest rally out of all of
the rallies that I've identified here?
549
00:40:58,010 --> 00:40:59,670
Right. I would agree.
550
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,420
So the rally has increased.
551
00:41:03,380 --> 00:41:07,100
The distance of the rally has increased.
552
00:41:07,340 --> 00:41:09,500
And that produced some kind of change.
553
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:12,380
That's a change of character, yeah.
554
00:41:12,780 --> 00:41:17,520
Yeah, yeah. So this is where I'm kind of
like trying to go with you here. So a
555
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:18,560
change of character.
556
00:41:18,780 --> 00:41:25,360
Now we need to confirm it. How do we
confirm it? Well, we look at the
557
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:26,360
run.
558
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:32,900
And we are comparing it to the next
rally that comes after the change of
559
00:41:32,900 --> 00:41:33,900
character rally.
560
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:38,840
The next decline that takes place. Yeah,
the next decline. And then we see that,
561
00:41:38,940 --> 00:41:42,640
again, the distance is diminishing.
562
00:41:43,240 --> 00:41:46,340
We're seeing how the spread might be
diminishing as well.
563
00:41:46,580 --> 00:41:51,440
We're having a higher low right here in
this area. So that confirms that change
564
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:52,238
of character.
565
00:41:52,240 --> 00:41:55,040
And the change of character is going to
be all about...
566
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:59,100
Well, something different happens here
in comparison to this or this.
567
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:05,040
Every time we either have a very weak
rally and then a break to the downside.
568
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,300
Weak rally and then a break to the
downside.
569
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:13,000
Here we have a much better rally.
570
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:15,720
So something is different.
571
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:20,440
And then we don't have the next break to
the downside.
572
00:42:21,190 --> 00:42:25,170
Or even in some instances, we might have
a small break, and then the price will
573
00:42:25,170 --> 00:42:27,430
come back into the trading range.
574
00:42:28,010 --> 00:42:32,950
So this is a change of character. This
is where everything changes for the
575
00:42:32,950 --> 00:42:37,150
downtrend, and we might expect a trading
range. And it's always going to be
576
00:42:37,150 --> 00:42:41,450
associated on the way in with phase A.
577
00:42:42,650 --> 00:42:43,650
Excellent.
578
00:42:43,890 --> 00:42:50,800
Okay, so now that we know where phase A
is, and by the way, So another, you
579
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:54,140
know, for those of you who are more
advanced, you might have a question
580
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:57,540
and I'm actually very surprised that
nobody's asking it right now.
581
00:42:58,700 --> 00:43:01,580
Automatic rally and automatic rally.
582
00:43:01,820 --> 00:43:05,660
Could it be that we could have, you
know, this type of labeling?
583
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:13,640
And I'd say that I would be totally okay
with this, right? So because we
584
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:17,540
have more of this rally and this
secondary test.
585
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:24,600
that is more of the function of the
selling climax itself, and then just the
586
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:27,500
continuation of this rally to the
upside.
587
00:43:28,540 --> 00:43:33,680
I could label this as an upthrust action
right here in phase B, but you could
588
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:39,780
also label this as a much larger
automatic rally, and then your secondary
589
00:43:39,780 --> 00:43:43,480
is going to be somewhere here in this
area, and this could be your phase A.
590
00:43:43,940 --> 00:43:49,800
Now, the biggest question here is, well,
What does it mean? I mean, like, it
591
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:51,380
looks like so discretionary.
592
00:43:51,700 --> 00:43:55,220
But the biggest question here is not
actually about the labeling.
593
00:43:55,640 --> 00:44:01,180
My biggest question to you, all of you
guys at this point is, does it really
594
00:44:01,180 --> 00:44:05,500
matter to your trading how you label
phase A?
595
00:44:07,900 --> 00:44:09,520
No. Why?
596
00:44:12,420 --> 00:44:15,320
Because we are just looking at the...
597
00:44:15,690 --> 00:44:19,890
pattern as it is evolving. The patterns,
the nature and the pattern of the
598
00:44:19,890 --> 00:44:21,290
rallies and the declines.
599
00:44:21,650 --> 00:44:23,650
Where were you betrayed in Rama?
600
00:44:25,380 --> 00:44:32,260
I would be trading at the phase C or D
as
601
00:44:32,260 --> 00:44:37,960
the price gets out of the trading range
and the new trend emerges.
602
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:42,180
That's where I would be trading. So
somewhere here in this area, maybe even
603
00:44:42,180 --> 00:44:46,320
more, maybe like somewhere here in this
whole area. Why? Because it's always
604
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:50,340
going to be to the right of the trading
range where we're going to originate our
605
00:44:50,340 --> 00:44:55,490
trade. So does it really matter how we
label phase A?
606
00:44:55,950 --> 00:45:02,330
No. I see a lot of this kind of like
this mental, you know, resistance.
607
00:45:03,210 --> 00:45:05,430
I have to label everything correctly.
608
00:45:05,930 --> 00:45:10,190
You have to trade everything correctly.
You don't have to label everything
609
00:45:10,190 --> 00:45:12,910
correctly. I'm going to go even further
with this statement.
610
00:45:13,570 --> 00:45:18,610
You have to trade correctly. You don't
have to analyze everything correctly.
611
00:45:18,610 --> 00:45:19,950
that is counterintuitive.
612
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:27,340
Because we always think that by making a
good analysis, that will lead to a good
613
00:45:27,340 --> 00:45:33,520
trade. Not necessarily. Sometimes my bad
analysis leads me to a much better
614
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:39,680
trade than the trade that I've analyzed
a lot.
615
00:45:40,270 --> 00:45:41,470
Why is this happening?
616
00:45:41,670 --> 00:45:46,030
Well, because markets are unpredictable,
and the only thing that you could
617
00:45:46,030 --> 00:45:47,770
really control is just your actions.
618
00:45:48,290 --> 00:45:53,650
So if I see some kind of mistake,
analytical mistake that I've made, and
619
00:45:53,650 --> 00:45:58,070
market shows to me right away that you
are wrong in your analysis, I could
620
00:45:58,070 --> 00:46:01,170
mentally make a switch and say, I was
wrong.
621
00:46:01,410 --> 00:46:04,210
If I was wrong, what is the correct
interpretation?
622
00:46:04,750 --> 00:46:07,550
Well, it's different. Could I take a
trade on that?
623
00:46:08,140 --> 00:46:13,200
yes, I'm still in that zone where I
could take a trade on that. So
624
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:19,860
you know, you could use it like this,
you know, like this mental path.
625
00:46:20,140 --> 00:46:25,640
Okay, so let's assume that we're going
to go with the original phase A,
626
00:46:25,860 --> 00:46:30,440
selling climax, automatic rally,
secondary test.
627
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:34,980
Then I already mentioned upthrust action
in phase B.
628
00:46:35,980 --> 00:46:38,640
So Rama, let me ask you this question.
629
00:46:39,020 --> 00:46:43,580
What is the next point in this trading
range that attracts your attention that
630
00:46:43,580 --> 00:46:47,640
you could identify right away and you
can say, I know what this is?
631
00:46:47,940 --> 00:46:49,680
The most obvious thing.
632
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:57,860
The most obvious thing is a deeper
secondary test that occurs
633
00:46:57,860 --> 00:47:02,140
in November.
634
00:47:02,870 --> 00:47:08,250
which is essentially very close to the
support level and the behavior of the
635
00:47:08,250 --> 00:47:10,010
price when it reaches that level.
636
00:47:10,450 --> 00:47:12,890
Okay, so what is it? How would we label
it?
637
00:47:13,750 --> 00:47:16,410
I would label that as SD.
638
00:47:17,450 --> 00:47:21,190
Okay, great. And there are, by the way,
multiple secondary tests.
639
00:47:22,210 --> 00:47:27,850
This is also, guys, another thing that I
want you to start thinking about.
640
00:47:28,050 --> 00:47:30,730
And today I'm going to give you so much
material.
641
00:47:31,690 --> 00:47:37,230
For those of you who emailed me and you
guys said, I watched the video and it
642
00:47:37,230 --> 00:47:43,030
was like an eye -opening watching it for
the second or third time. And some of
643
00:47:43,030 --> 00:47:44,610
you watched multiple times.
644
00:47:44,990 --> 00:47:50,690
And I do believe it because going
through this, even through this chart, I
645
00:47:50,690 --> 00:47:55,030
already gave you probably like a dozen
of concepts that you could make a note
646
00:47:55,030 --> 00:47:59,430
of. So for those of you who have time,
watch the recording again.
647
00:47:59,790 --> 00:48:04,210
Make the notes. Send those notes to me.
You're going to receive so much value
648
00:48:04,210 --> 00:48:05,290
out of that exercise.
649
00:48:05,870 --> 00:48:08,510
Okay, so what am I talking about here?
650
00:48:08,970 --> 00:48:15,010
We have to understand the texture of the
LUT formation, how it forms.
651
00:48:15,490 --> 00:48:20,350
We could see that the selling climax is
always going to be associated with the
652
00:48:20,350 --> 00:48:22,090
secondary test, the retest of that.
653
00:48:22,350 --> 00:48:27,210
And then in phase B, Rama has mentioned,
you know, this secondary test.
654
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:30,780
That goes to the support level.
655
00:48:31,300 --> 00:48:37,100
But there are quite a lot of those tests
around this area. There are one, two,
656
00:48:37,140 --> 00:48:39,780
three, four, five. Five tests, maybe
even six tests.
657
00:48:40,300 --> 00:48:46,940
And you kind of could see from the
texture of the price that it's all
658
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:49,640
It's not just separate tests.
659
00:48:50,060 --> 00:48:55,840
It's the testing that takes some time
and produces.
660
00:48:56,780 --> 00:49:02,660
a trading range so when we look into
this we usually would be thinking that
661
00:49:02,660 --> 00:49:07,540
should belong to one phase and some
instances we would break this but in
662
00:49:07,540 --> 00:49:13,040
case it seems like it should be one uh
one test and then one phase so what
663
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:18,940
would it be all the secondary tests here
phase b phase b Yes, we still need to
664
00:49:18,940 --> 00:49:23,100
experience phase B, and we know that
phase B is going to be the largest among
665
00:49:23,100 --> 00:49:25,400
three phases, A, B, and C.
666
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:31,700
Okay, so if this is phase B, then what
is the next most obvious thing that you
667
00:49:31,700 --> 00:49:35,200
see in this trading range that you could
identify and tell us, I know what this
668
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:36,200
is?
669
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:44,180
There are two points I can identify. One
is the...
670
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:50,920
that happens soon after the testing or
the support level, and the other one is
671
00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:57,600
the low of the Phase C.
672
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:00,300
Okay. Those are the two things that
stand out.
673
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:04,420
Okay. So let's deal with Phase C first.
So why is this Phase C?
674
00:50:07,240 --> 00:50:11,780
The price action and the price, again,
675
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:19,460
Unlike the other test in phase B, the
price gets much closer
676
00:50:19,460 --> 00:50:25,960
and the spread of the bar narrows. And
the
677
00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:28,020
rally that follows that.
678
00:50:28,860 --> 00:50:35,800
for the first time, traverses through
the trading range, commits itself above
679
00:50:35,800 --> 00:50:41,540
the resistance level, and then stays
above that resistance level. Well,
680
00:50:41,540 --> 00:50:47,340
has been doing a lot of homework and
watching a lot of videos, so Rama, good
681
00:50:47,340 --> 00:50:54,040
job. So Rama is giving us a lot of
thoughts on how we could identify phase
682
00:50:54,570 --> 00:50:58,630
I'm going to show you this slide and,
you know, in a couple of other slides
683
00:50:58,630 --> 00:51:04,150
we have to cover first on how could we
identify phase C. This is going to be
684
00:51:04,150 --> 00:51:10,150
of the major kind of shortcuts that I'm
going to give you guys. So phase C is
685
00:51:10,150 --> 00:51:16,270
going to be associated with the number
three or
686
00:51:16,270 --> 00:51:22,950
last test at the level of the support.
687
00:51:24,590 --> 00:51:26,070
So where is the first test?
688
00:51:26,350 --> 00:51:32,670
Well, naturally, after the climactic
action in phase A, that's number one,
689
00:51:32,670 --> 00:51:35,970
that's at the support level, even though
it comes so high, but it's still
690
00:51:35,970 --> 00:51:39,490
testing the local stopping action by
selling climax.
691
00:51:40,010 --> 00:51:44,510
Test number two, naturally, will happen
in phase B.
692
00:51:44,850 --> 00:51:50,550
And this test number two is just too
complex because there is a selling
693
00:51:51,660 --> 00:51:55,760
There's a whole formation with the
selling climax, automatic rally,
694
00:51:55,760 --> 00:52:02,380
test, phase A, phase B, phase B, even
the phase B upthrust,
695
00:52:02,600 --> 00:52:03,600
phase C.
696
00:52:03,780 --> 00:52:08,380
So it has its own trading range. So it's
just a complex trading range and a
697
00:52:08,380 --> 00:52:11,860
complex process of testing that we are
observing here.
698
00:52:12,180 --> 00:52:13,980
But this is a test number two.
699
00:52:14,360 --> 00:52:19,280
And then phase C always will be a test
number three.
700
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:22,140
at the level of the support.
701
00:52:22,540 --> 00:52:27,920
That's very important because test
number four is gonna be at the level of
702
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:34,900
resistance that was created by phases A
and B. We will come back to
703
00:52:34,900 --> 00:52:35,900
this later on.
704
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:42,720
We also know that phase C is gonna be
the lowest low
705
00:52:42,720 --> 00:52:46,580
in the uptrend.
706
00:52:49,070 --> 00:52:55,270
And because we look at the chart where
we know what has happened before, where
707
00:52:55,270 --> 00:52:57,130
did uptrend have started?
708
00:52:57,570 --> 00:53:01,810
One might argue that, well, we had the
start maybe like somewhere here in
709
00:53:01,810 --> 00:53:07,270
December of 85, and then we have a
higher high and a higher low.
710
00:53:07,650 --> 00:53:11,610
One might argue, well, maybe even a low
prior to that, November.
711
00:53:12,170 --> 00:53:17,260
But for us, what's important is to
understand is that there is still a
712
00:53:17,260 --> 00:53:20,360
range that unfolds. It's a non -trending
environment.
713
00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:27,320
So therefore, there is no really a trend
until it hits the low of phase C, and
714
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:33,420
only then we would be seeing some kind
of uptrend. Now, we'll have some other
715
00:53:33,420 --> 00:53:37,880
different definitions on this subject
where we might have even the low in
716
00:53:37,880 --> 00:53:42,680
A, and that would establish the whole
trend. But we still would be going
717
00:53:42,680 --> 00:53:44,180
some kind of consolidating.
718
00:53:44,540 --> 00:53:46,940
accumulative actions prior to that.
719
00:53:47,200 --> 00:53:53,140
So the lowest low, when you look at the
historical chart, could define phase C
720
00:53:53,140 --> 00:53:54,720
for you really easily.
721
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:56,680
That's where the trend starts.
722
00:53:56,920 --> 00:54:03,780
We also will talk about a second point
of fear in phase C. So that second point
723
00:54:03,780 --> 00:54:07,440
of fear is going to be associated with
the increase in the volume signature
724
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:11,440
where weak hands are going to
capitulate.
725
00:54:13,520 --> 00:54:15,880
And that's going to produce that lower
low.
726
00:54:16,640 --> 00:54:22,580
Or we could have, you know, like in this
instance, a very big distance to the
727
00:54:22,580 --> 00:54:24,920
downside, right? So reaction might
increase.
728
00:54:26,660 --> 00:54:33,420
And that could produce, you know,
increased selling behaviors by
729
00:54:33,420 --> 00:54:37,560
weak hands, and they will be trying to
get out, and there might be some
730
00:54:37,560 --> 00:54:39,340
acceleration around the support here.
731
00:54:40,560 --> 00:54:41,560
What else?
732
00:54:42,700 --> 00:54:49,240
said that there are some characteristics
for phase C that we need to understand.
733
00:54:49,720 --> 00:54:55,780
We definitely know that the reaction
should have some kind of bullish sign.
734
00:54:57,880 --> 00:55:04,700
And Rama has mentioned those. The
downward spread is diminishing relative
735
00:55:04,700 --> 00:55:08,840
what we've seen, let's say, in phase B
or on the climactic run in phase A.
736
00:55:09,470 --> 00:55:15,670
We could also see that maybe with this
diminishing downspread action, the
737
00:55:15,670 --> 00:55:19,690
is also diminishing. That could be a
possibility as well. And kind of a
738
00:55:19,690 --> 00:55:26,590
laborious move to the downside instead
of very quick sign of strength type
739
00:55:26,590 --> 00:55:29,030
of move to the downside. So that's the
big difference.
740
00:55:29,470 --> 00:55:32,410
Okay, so let's come back to our
labeling.
741
00:55:33,450 --> 00:55:36,370
Phase A, phase C.
742
00:55:38,250 --> 00:55:41,350
So everything in between is phase B.
743
00:55:41,710 --> 00:55:48,450
And we see two instances where the price
overcomes the previous high in a very
744
00:55:48,450 --> 00:55:53,150
insignificant way. In the first time, it
tries to commit to the upside.
745
00:55:53,270 --> 00:55:59,070
Actually, the first time was here in
phase B, so off -thrust action in phase
746
00:55:59,150 --> 00:56:02,690
Then the second time, it's just an
attempt to commit, and then the return.
747
00:56:02,990 --> 00:56:06,890
And then the third time, there is a
commitment, and then a return back.
748
00:56:07,520 --> 00:56:10,420
So all of those instances are going to
be up thrust.
749
00:56:10,880 --> 00:56:17,660
There is only one extra definition here
that I want you to know.
750
00:56:18,340 --> 00:56:23,120
This rally right here, that looks like a
rally in phase D.
751
00:56:23,500 --> 00:56:27,620
And some of you who are more advanced,
are probably just thinking, okay, well,
752
00:56:27,680 --> 00:56:32,400
why is he not talking about this? Why is
this not a sign of strength rally?
753
00:56:32,660 --> 00:56:35,900
Why is it not identified as phase D?
754
00:56:36,510 --> 00:56:39,670
Well, look at the next reaction that
comes after that.
755
00:56:39,970 --> 00:56:45,030
It actually negates almost all of the
gains that we've seen on this rally.
756
00:56:45,350 --> 00:56:50,250
And we've just identified phase C low as
the low of this reaction.
757
00:56:50,530 --> 00:56:55,510
So, therefore, whatever we're observing,
all of this moves to the upside are
758
00:56:55,510 --> 00:56:58,090
most likely a part of phase B.
759
00:56:58,430 --> 00:57:02,510
Now, in phase B, we could have up
thrust, and some of them are going to be
760
00:57:02,510 --> 00:57:03,510
significant.
761
00:57:03,760 --> 00:57:09,300
The ones that are showing us some
bullish activity and that are going to
762
00:57:09,300 --> 00:57:15,620
like a phase D sign of strength could be
labeled as
763
00:57:15,620 --> 00:57:22,540
upthrust action as a minor sign of
764
00:57:22,540 --> 00:57:27,440
strength. Whereas the major sign of
strength is still going to come in phase
765
00:57:27,540 --> 00:57:31,500
right? So we could have a major sign of
strength as like this rally.
766
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:38,540
and then a backing up action into the
lows of the support that acted before as
767
00:57:38,540 --> 00:57:41,120
the resistance. So this could act as a
backing up action.
768
00:57:41,360 --> 00:57:45,760
So this big rally is going to be a major
sign of strength.
769
00:57:47,160 --> 00:57:52,720
And then this smaller rally in phase B
is going to be an upthrust action as a
770
00:57:52,720 --> 00:57:53,900
minor sign of strength.
771
00:57:54,160 --> 00:57:57,580
And that's that distinction that I want
you guys to give.
772
00:57:58,750 --> 00:58:04,190
All right, let me quickly just see what
other questions we have.
773
00:58:06,650 --> 00:58:11,970
Isn't phase A important for closing of a
position from Philip? Yeah, absolutely.
774
00:58:12,110 --> 00:58:17,390
Here at this point, we're going to be
facing a lot of trading decisions that
775
00:58:17,390 --> 00:58:19,370
we're keeping the position if we are
correct.
776
00:58:20,140 --> 00:58:22,840
on our buys and if we are in this trade.
777
00:58:23,460 --> 00:58:27,460
Also, some other decisions, not for
those of you who are in this position at
778
00:58:27,460 --> 00:58:28,460
this point of time.
779
00:58:28,600 --> 00:58:35,180
Let's say somebody is looking at the
stock and identifying maybe some kind of
780
00:58:35,180 --> 00:58:41,020
interest in the stock. So in phase A,
what kind of trading decision are we
781
00:58:41,020 --> 00:58:45,800
to have at this point? Most likely not,
but that's a decision on its own.
782
00:58:46,180 --> 00:58:49,000
Not to participate is a decision.
783
00:58:50,320 --> 00:58:57,320
not to be involved, not to get your risk
exposure at this point of time is a
784
00:58:57,320 --> 00:58:58,320
trading decision.
785
00:58:58,660 --> 00:59:02,380
Doing nothing, sitting on your hands is
a trading decision.
786
00:59:03,340 --> 00:59:07,040
So yeah, so those type of decisions are
going to be important in phase A.
787
00:59:08,560 --> 00:59:13,240
Is there a sign of strength rally after
December secondary test? So we've just
788
00:59:13,240 --> 00:59:14,240
covered this.
789
00:59:14,620 --> 00:59:19,480
Yes, it's a sign of strength rally, but
it's a minus sign of strength rally.
790
00:59:20,610 --> 00:59:23,550
in phase B and not in phase D?
791
00:59:25,030 --> 00:59:27,890
Where would you place the trade in phase
C?
792
00:59:28,390 --> 00:59:30,450
Okay, good question. That comes from
Justin.
793
00:59:31,170 --> 00:59:35,450
So we're looking at how the price moves
to the downside and we're looking for
794
00:59:35,450 --> 00:59:41,470
any points of the reversal, right? So
move to the downside, no reversal.
795
00:59:42,110 --> 00:59:44,950
Move to the downside, no reversal.
796
00:59:45,310 --> 00:59:48,310
Move to the downside, no reversal.
797
00:59:49,040 --> 00:59:55,700
move to the downside, oops, reversal,
which would equal
798
00:59:55,700 --> 00:59:59,900
our point of entry, and that would be
our first point of entry. Our second
799
00:59:59,900 --> 01:00:02,580
of entry could be this bar right here.
800
01:00:04,500 --> 01:00:11,360
Our next point of entry will be
somewhere in this area where we are
801
01:00:11,360 --> 01:00:12,540
a backing -up action.
802
01:00:13,580 --> 01:00:18,120
And our fourth point of entry is
probably going to be somewhere here on
803
01:00:18,120 --> 01:00:19,120
breakout.
804
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:25,600
This was not the most efficient in this
case entry, but still, with your stop
805
01:00:25,600 --> 01:00:29,500
losses, it shouldn't get you out. So all
four points of entry, you should just
806
01:00:29,500 --> 01:00:30,500
go through.
807
01:00:31,500 --> 01:00:33,380
Okay, what else?
808
01:00:34,000 --> 01:00:38,200
Is it reasonable to take a trade to
upside in early January?
809
01:00:40,549 --> 01:00:43,630
considering reaction looks like a back
-and -up action? Yes.
810
01:00:44,570 --> 01:00:50,550
And if you're thinking that this is a
back -and -up action, let's say, oh, I
811
01:00:50,550 --> 01:00:52,250
see, right here. Okay, got it.
812
01:00:52,710 --> 01:00:57,130
Okay, yeah, this is a good question, but
again, we're coming back into the point
813
01:00:57,130 --> 01:01:01,730
of, you know, how do we actually manage
the position, meaning how do we actually
814
01:01:01,730 --> 01:01:03,450
come in into the position, right?
815
01:01:03,670 --> 01:01:07,270
So we need to see some kind of reversal
of this initial move to the downside.
816
01:01:07,730 --> 01:01:08,850
There is no reversal.
817
01:01:09,520 --> 01:01:15,980
So there is no entry, and that would
save us from entering prematurely and
818
01:01:15,980 --> 01:01:18,820
exposing ourselves, you know, to the
remainder of this reaction.
819
01:01:20,820 --> 01:01:24,800
Why is not a backing up action between
February and March?
820
01:01:26,060 --> 01:01:28,740
This one right here, yeah, it's a
backing up action.
821
01:01:29,160 --> 01:01:35,120
Again, it's just minor, right? And then
this is a backing up action, this whole
822
01:01:35,120 --> 01:01:37,820
formation, and it's a major.
823
01:01:40,160 --> 01:01:46,220
So quite a lot of distinctions already,
guys, that I've given you. So you have
824
01:01:46,220 --> 01:01:50,960
to take notes and you have to remember
those. All right, Ramar. Really quickly,
825
01:01:51,060 --> 01:01:52,460
let's talk about the distribution.
826
01:01:54,020 --> 01:01:58,480
So what is the most obvious thing that
you see in this distribution?
827
01:02:00,800 --> 01:02:05,320
In that small area of distribution, the
most obvious thing is the...
828
01:02:07,370 --> 01:02:13,150
Price action that almost resembles
buying climax, the very first bar.
829
01:02:13,470 --> 01:02:17,050
What are the characteristics of this
buying climax that we see?
830
01:02:19,730 --> 01:02:25,770
Widespread rapid rise of the price to a
new high when compared to the previous
831
01:02:25,770 --> 01:02:27,230
high. Climax is wrong.
832
01:02:27,570 --> 01:02:34,070
Right. And then it's immediately
followed by an automatic
833
01:02:34,070 --> 01:02:35,070
reaction.
834
01:02:39,540 --> 01:02:46,480
And then that is followed by a secondary
test, which tests the highs of
835
01:02:46,480 --> 01:02:48,260
previously established highs.
836
01:02:48,700 --> 01:02:52,820
Please note, there are quite a few
secondary tests here. The first one is
837
01:02:52,820 --> 01:02:58,000
to be an attempt to retest the buying
climax. That would conclude phase A.
838
01:02:58,040 --> 01:03:00,140
let's finish with the buying climax.
What else?
839
01:03:00,700 --> 01:03:02,320
Gap. Gap up.
840
01:03:03,070 --> 01:03:08,450
is going to be a part of that, you know,
climactic stopping action. Actually, as
841
01:03:08,450 --> 01:03:13,970
you look through this intermediate
stopping actions, this is a buying
842
01:03:14,010 --> 01:03:15,030
It's just intermediate.
843
01:03:15,310 --> 01:03:18,450
And look how gap is happening here. Look
at the move.
844
01:03:18,870 --> 01:03:20,270
Look at the gaps here.
845
01:03:20,830 --> 01:03:22,270
Also a buying climax.
846
01:03:22,650 --> 01:03:25,710
Also a buying climax. On a very, very
small scale.
847
01:03:26,430 --> 01:03:32,030
But we kind of see that this analog
repeats over and over and over again.
848
01:03:32,030 --> 01:03:36,090
yeah. A lot of climactic action. And
what do you think the volume signature
849
01:03:36,090 --> 01:03:37,090
is?
850
01:03:38,250 --> 01:03:42,490
More likely to be a moderately high
volume.
851
01:03:43,210 --> 01:03:48,410
Okay. Something like this. I wonder why
moderately. I'm just really curious.
852
01:03:52,430 --> 01:03:58,550
That's because the extent to which the
price has moved when compared to
853
01:03:58,550 --> 01:04:01,890
the previous high on the left side
around.
854
01:04:02,440 --> 01:04:08,440
just before June, leads me to suspect
that the
855
01:04:08,440 --> 01:04:15,320
volume might have been only moderately.
If it was climactic volume, I would have
856
01:04:15,320 --> 01:04:17,280
seen the price go a little bit higher.
857
01:04:17,880 --> 01:04:22,420
Interesting. Okay, guys, for those of
you who can, quickly find me the volume
858
01:04:22,420 --> 01:04:27,360
signature and maybe send me the picture
through the chat or something like this.
859
01:04:27,420 --> 01:04:28,580
I'm now really curious.
860
01:04:30,060 --> 01:04:35,340
My first thought would be that because
the next area is the reaccumulation, the
861
01:04:35,340 --> 01:04:38,820
volume signature is going to increase,
but probably more locally.
862
01:04:39,500 --> 01:04:40,600
That's number one.
863
01:04:41,720 --> 01:04:47,740
And we probably would be thinking that
that would give us just an idea that
864
01:04:47,740 --> 01:04:51,140
we're going to go into the trading range
with the bias that is going to be to
865
01:04:51,140 --> 01:04:52,140
the upside.
866
01:04:52,360 --> 01:04:57,140
So therefore, not a lot of supply
signature should be there. On the second
867
01:04:57,140 --> 01:05:02,300
thought. You know, looking at all of
these buying climaxes, you know, to the
868
01:05:02,300 --> 01:05:08,820
upside, we're seeing that there is a big
gap to the upside. So there is some
869
01:05:08,820 --> 01:05:14,240
kind of event here that stops this whole
movement. So this event should have,
870
01:05:14,240 --> 01:05:17,320
you know, an increase in the volume
signature for sure.
871
01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:19,820
Plus the whole day just goes up.
872
01:05:20,380 --> 01:05:24,240
So that should, you know, have some kind
of demand behind it.
873
01:05:24,960 --> 01:05:30,300
especially at the higher levels over the
resistance. So I wonder what the volume
874
01:05:30,300 --> 01:05:31,218
signature is.
875
01:05:31,220 --> 01:05:32,700
Okay, we'll come back to this.
876
01:05:32,900 --> 01:05:37,800
So buying climax, automatic rally,
secondary test, our phase A is defined.
877
01:05:38,040 --> 01:05:42,260
What is the next phase that could be
easily identified right away?
878
01:05:43,760 --> 01:05:50,080
Phase C, again, where the price comes
and
879
01:05:50,080 --> 01:05:51,920
tests the support level.
880
01:05:53,230 --> 01:05:59,330
And followed by... We are discussing a
distribution, right? So with the
881
01:05:59,330 --> 01:06:06,070
distribution, we're going to have this
type of schematic where phase C is going
882
01:06:06,070 --> 01:06:08,650
to be not at the low, but at the high.
883
01:06:09,190 --> 01:06:10,810
Yeah. So where is it?
884
01:06:11,730 --> 01:06:15,430
It's right at the July level.
885
01:06:15,670 --> 01:06:16,670
Yeah.
886
01:06:17,230 --> 01:06:23,010
the price commits temporarily above the
point of the uh level of the resistance
887
01:06:23,010 --> 01:06:29,530
so how would we label this then
obviously say c yeah
888
01:06:29,530 --> 01:06:36,450
and how would what is this white of
event the price commits temporarily
889
01:06:36,450 --> 01:06:39,210
above and then comes back into the
trading range
890
01:06:40,460 --> 01:06:44,840
Up thrust. Up thrust, yeah. Because this
is distribution after, up thrust after
891
01:06:44,840 --> 01:06:49,500
distribution. Everything between phase C
and A is going to be phase B.
892
01:06:49,720 --> 01:06:53,980
In phase B, we're going to say, okay,
there is a little bit small up thrust
893
01:06:53,980 --> 01:06:54,980
in phase B.
894
01:06:55,120 --> 01:07:00,240
There is multiple secondary tasks.
895
01:07:00,660 --> 01:07:06,540
And then as the price goes down, and we
see that the price has some tail right
896
01:07:06,540 --> 01:07:08,500
here, it's very hard to see.
897
01:07:09,880 --> 01:07:12,900
How would we identify this action?
Obviously in phase D now.
898
01:07:14,660 --> 01:07:20,300
So this first at least attempt to commit
to the downside, how would you label
899
01:07:20,300 --> 01:07:21,300
it?
900
01:07:23,580 --> 01:07:28,460
That would be labeled as a last point of
supply.
901
01:07:29,040 --> 01:07:32,260
Okay, so the rally will be a last point
of supply.
902
01:07:32,540 --> 01:07:37,020
But the move to the downside from the
high of the upthrust to the low of this
903
01:07:37,020 --> 01:07:38,020
reaction.
904
01:07:38,680 --> 01:07:40,840
This whole move right here, that would
be what?
905
01:07:44,640 --> 01:07:51,400
Think about phase C low and accumulation
and move to the upside.
906
01:07:51,540 --> 01:07:54,100
The opposite to that, to the downside.
907
01:07:54,740 --> 01:07:55,740
Downside, yeah.
908
01:07:56,620 --> 01:07:57,620
Sign of weakness?
909
01:07:58,240 --> 01:07:59,940
Yeah, sign of weakness, yeah.
910
01:08:00,180 --> 01:08:04,480
Sign of weakness. So it's a little bit
condensed here, but here it is.
911
01:08:05,720 --> 01:08:06,720
Sign of weakness.
912
01:08:07,500 --> 01:08:09,780
LPSY, and then off we go to the
downside.
913
01:08:10,140 --> 01:08:15,060
Okay, great. So distribution has a very
small cause.
914
01:08:16,720 --> 01:08:23,080
So therefore, the downtrend should be
also small.
915
01:08:23,800 --> 01:08:30,080
And we kind of see that. Okay, well,
then next we'll look at the
916
01:08:30,080 --> 01:08:31,080
range again.
917
01:08:31,340 --> 01:08:35,180
Okay, so what is the most obvious thing
that catches your eye, Rama?
918
01:08:37,169 --> 01:08:44,029
The most obvious thing is the price
leveling off.
919
01:08:44,109 --> 01:08:51,109
After the sign of weakness and the last
point of supply, it establishes a price
920
01:08:51,109 --> 01:08:54,130
from which there's a rally that takes
place.
921
01:08:54,550 --> 01:09:01,450
Okay, so we're seeing the low that has
been created, and then we're seeing
922
01:09:01,450 --> 01:09:05,470
a move to the upside. Now, this rally,
is this...
923
01:09:05,840 --> 01:09:12,040
Is this rally much better than the
rallies that we've seen in the down
924
01:09:12,620 --> 01:09:13,620
Yes,
925
01:09:14,020 --> 01:09:17,300
absolutely. So what does this mean to
us? Is this a change of character?
926
01:09:17,979 --> 01:09:19,420
Yeah, change of character.
927
01:09:19,760 --> 01:09:23,479
Change of character. At this point of
time, a change of character would
928
01:09:23,479 --> 01:09:28,460
that from a downtrend, we're going to go
into a non -trending environment and
929
01:09:28,460 --> 01:09:29,899
we're going to look at the trading
range.
930
01:09:30,380 --> 01:09:33,920
Trading range. The trading range here,
again, the questions that we're going to
931
01:09:33,920 --> 01:09:38,380
address was the trading range, bias,
timing, character.
932
01:09:39,319 --> 01:09:46,040
Right. Okay. So, and also, change of
character is going to be associated
933
01:09:46,040 --> 01:09:49,680
always on the way into the trading range
with phase A.
934
01:09:50,200 --> 01:09:54,640
Okay. So, if this is phase A, then what
kind of, you know, phase A Y -class
935
01:09:54,640 --> 01:09:57,780
events do we have? The stop in action is
going to be labeled as fail.
936
01:09:59,800 --> 01:10:00,800
Yeah.
937
01:10:01,820 --> 01:10:08,280
It will be labeled as a local selling
climax.
938
01:10:08,720 --> 01:10:11,460
Yes, and I like that, you know, local
definition.
939
01:10:11,760 --> 01:10:15,080
Okay, great. So selling climax, the
first rally.
940
01:10:16,620 --> 01:10:18,620
That would be automatic reaction.
941
01:10:19,280 --> 01:10:24,780
Reaction, and then the next test that's
going to test the selling climax is
942
01:10:24,780 --> 01:10:26,720
going to be a secondary test.
943
01:10:27,370 --> 01:10:29,830
And that would define phase A for us.
944
01:10:30,550 --> 01:10:36,430
Okay. So then what is the next most
obvious Wyckoff event
945
01:10:36,430 --> 01:10:39,290
that you see here?
946
01:10:41,710 --> 01:10:48,310
A rally that goes above the level of the
resistance
947
01:10:48,310 --> 01:10:54,170
and doesn't commit itself to the price
level above.
948
01:10:54,780 --> 01:10:59,880
and declines into the trading range. So
kind of like this type of action, right?
949
01:10:59,980 --> 01:11:04,040
Like we have this up front and then we
come back into the trading range. And it
950
01:11:04,040 --> 01:11:09,280
happens at the same spot, right? So
right after phase A. So act a little bit
951
01:11:09,280 --> 01:11:14,640
an analog, you know, to what we're
seeing here. So we're seeing up front.
952
01:11:15,140 --> 01:11:21,080
At this point of time, looking at this
rally, you're looking at the character
953
01:11:21,080 --> 01:11:22,080
this rally.
954
01:11:22,320 --> 01:11:28,020
Could we say that maybe this rally acts
even as kind of like a minor sign of
955
01:11:28,020 --> 01:11:29,020
strength here?
956
01:11:29,300 --> 01:11:31,900
Yes, I would say so, yeah. Yeah, look at
the character.
957
01:11:32,140 --> 01:11:34,320
The price moves so quickly to the
upside.
958
01:11:34,580 --> 01:11:40,620
It commits on actually multiple closes
to the upside. Actually, maybe just one
959
01:11:40,620 --> 01:11:41,619
or two.
960
01:11:41,620 --> 01:11:45,480
Spend some time there. And this is
what's interesting. Sometimes upthrust.
961
01:11:45,680 --> 01:11:50,540
Look at this upthrust. Goes up, commits
really quickly, and then... By the end
962
01:11:50,540 --> 01:11:53,920
of the session, it already shows some
supply, and then the next day it comes
963
01:11:53,920 --> 01:11:55,020
back into the trading range.
964
01:11:55,420 --> 01:11:56,580
This one is different.
965
01:11:57,260 --> 01:12:04,220
This one has three days that goes above
the resistance, and then look at the
966
01:12:04,220 --> 01:12:10,580
time that it spends, maybe like two
weeks above that point of resistance.
967
01:12:11,140 --> 01:12:15,200
So what does it tell us? It tells us
that there is some kind of strength
968
01:12:15,200 --> 01:12:17,460
the price action.
969
01:12:18,089 --> 01:12:19,330
Strength in the background.
970
01:12:19,690 --> 01:12:24,770
Yeah, and the strength, guys, you know,
it's not indicative of the timing.
971
01:12:26,390 --> 01:12:31,190
By no means. Think about that, oh my
gosh, the strength in early, let's say,
972
01:12:31,250 --> 01:12:36,830
phase A or early phase B, you know, we
should go in into this position. Now,
973
01:12:36,950 --> 01:12:42,490
this strength just suggests to you that
this is a reaccumulation, but it doesn't
974
01:12:42,490 --> 01:12:43,630
suggest to you the timing.
975
01:12:44,160 --> 01:12:48,580
The phase analysis is going to suggest
to you the timing as to when we should
976
01:12:48,580 --> 01:12:49,740
into this position.
977
01:12:50,000 --> 01:12:54,880
But this trend suggests that the bias
could be to the upside.
978
01:12:55,100 --> 01:12:58,580
So now you're just looking for the
confirmation of this information.
979
01:12:58,940 --> 01:13:03,720
Is it really that the bias is to the
upside because we're just still too
980
01:13:03,800 --> 01:13:07,360
We're in early phase B at this point of
time.
981
01:13:08,580 --> 01:13:09,580
Okay, great.
982
01:13:10,260 --> 01:13:11,480
So what's next?
983
01:13:11,800 --> 01:13:16,520
By the way, if this is a bias to the
upside, we would say that this is an
984
01:13:16,520 --> 01:13:18,560
upthrust action rather than an upthrust.
985
01:13:18,900 --> 01:13:23,060
Okay, well then, what's the next thing
that catches your eye?
986
01:13:23,800 --> 01:13:29,540
Right. The next thing that catches my
eye is the disconfirmation. That is, up
987
01:13:29,540 --> 01:13:34,100
until this time, the strength of the
rally and the commitment of the price to
988
01:13:34,100 --> 01:13:37,500
the level above the resistance for a few
days.
989
01:13:39,400 --> 01:13:41,280
tilts my bias to the upside.
990
01:13:41,680 --> 01:13:48,420
But on that bias, I always look forward
to see if that is going to be confirmed
991
01:13:48,420 --> 01:13:55,140
by the subsequent price action. In this
case, the subsequent price action is
992
01:13:55,140 --> 01:13:56,380
indicative of weakness.
993
01:13:56,800 --> 01:13:59,840
So it comes down, it price declines.
994
01:14:00,160 --> 01:14:02,100
Okay, so we're talking about this.
995
01:14:02,320 --> 01:14:08,000
Right. And then it comes and produces
another secondary test.
996
01:14:08,520 --> 01:14:12,620
Okay. Well, let's kind of grab this idea
here from Rama.
997
01:14:13,360 --> 01:14:18,740
So he's saying that, you know, to come
back into the trading range, which we
998
01:14:18,740 --> 01:14:20,740
would expect, by the way, in Phase B.
999
01:14:21,200 --> 01:14:22,220
We've tested.
1000
01:14:22,960 --> 01:14:24,600
This is a secondary test.
1001
01:14:24,860 --> 01:14:29,960
It's still in Phase A. And this is the
first test in Phase B. This is the test
1002
01:14:29,960 --> 01:14:35,720
at the level of the resistance. And we
should have a test in Phase B.
1003
01:14:36,720 --> 01:14:39,480
at the level of the support as well.
1004
01:14:40,000 --> 01:14:44,300
Phase B is going to test both resistance
and the support.
1005
01:14:44,540 --> 01:14:51,020
And we've seen how Romer has described
that there is some supply
1006
01:14:51,020 --> 01:14:56,880
or increase of the supply that we see in
the spread, in the download spread,
1007
01:14:57,140 --> 01:15:02,320
that suggests what? That suggests that
if supply is increasing, we need some
1008
01:15:02,320 --> 01:15:03,960
kind of retest of that supply.
1009
01:15:05,860 --> 01:15:11,620
Usually, the more supply we have, the
more testing we need to be doing.
1010
01:15:12,000 --> 01:15:16,540
And the more testing we need to be
doing, that would suggest that we might
1011
01:15:16,540 --> 01:15:20,300
some kind of trading range. And we're
already in a trading range here, which
1012
01:15:20,300 --> 01:15:24,080
kind of like thinking that it's going to
prolong the trading range.
1013
01:15:24,500 --> 01:15:30,980
Okay, well, if we had one test, which
was a
1014
01:15:30,980 --> 01:15:34,620
supposedly up -thrust accident test,
1015
01:15:36,560 --> 01:15:40,620
at the resistance, then the next test is
going to be at the support.
1016
01:15:42,300 --> 01:15:44,880
So how would we label this test in phase
B?
1017
01:15:46,100 --> 01:15:50,420
I would still label that as a secondary
test.
1018
01:15:50,860 --> 01:15:56,980
Yeah, secondary test. We are not
overcoming the low that was created in
1019
01:15:57,120 --> 01:15:58,440
so this is a higher low.
1020
01:15:58,660 --> 01:16:05,340
So therefore, the higher low in phase B
would be
1021
01:16:05,340 --> 01:16:09,260
labeled as a secondary test at the level
of the support.
1022
01:16:10,300 --> 01:16:17,220
And then a lower low in phase B would be
labeled as a secondary test as a sign
1023
01:16:17,220 --> 01:16:19,280
of, as a minor sign of weakness.
1024
01:16:22,240 --> 01:16:27,620
Okay, so this is a secondary test, but
which one? There are quite a few here.
1025
01:16:27,820 --> 01:16:31,280
I'm looking at this, I'm looking at
this, I'm looking at this, I'm looking
1026
01:16:31,280 --> 01:16:32,300
this, I'm looking at this.
1027
01:16:33,160 --> 01:16:40,120
I would say the second one, the one
marked where the price
1028
01:16:40,120 --> 01:16:46,040
reaches the lowest point among that
cluster of tests.
1029
01:16:46,700 --> 01:16:52,400
Got it. So Rama is saying that this
point right here is our secondary test.
1030
01:16:52,820 --> 01:16:59,360
I would probably have an argument here
with you, Rama, because
1031
01:16:59,360 --> 01:17:01,520
look into this area again.
1032
01:17:01,920 --> 01:17:03,100
How did we approach it?
1033
01:17:03,360 --> 01:17:08,900
We approached the whole formation as
three tests in different phases.
1034
01:17:09,300 --> 01:17:14,160
And that's what I want you guys to start
practicing. I want your eyes and your
1035
01:17:14,160 --> 01:17:15,740
minds to see this.
1036
01:17:16,400 --> 01:17:19,200
There are formations that are together.
1037
01:17:20,660 --> 01:17:22,680
And I'm going to highlight this.
1038
01:17:23,460 --> 01:17:27,800
Here is a formation where there is an
action and then there is a test.
1039
01:17:28,680 --> 01:17:33,620
There is another formation where there
is an action and there is multiple tests
1040
01:17:33,620 --> 01:17:34,620
of this action.
1041
01:17:34,920 --> 01:17:40,140
And then there is a third formation that
is an action and multiple tests after
1042
01:17:40,140 --> 01:17:45,520
that. So I want you to start thinking in
these terms because we will be
1043
01:17:45,520 --> 01:17:50,760
defining the texture of the whole
trading range as the
1044
01:17:50,760 --> 01:17:56,520
construction of smaller pieces.
1045
01:17:57,180 --> 01:18:02,800
that come together, and locally, when we
say locally, then we mean that this
1046
01:18:02,800 --> 01:18:08,200
test is local to the selling climax, or
this multiple tests are local to the
1047
01:18:08,200 --> 01:18:14,600
climactic action that Rama has
identified here, or maybe this test are
1048
01:18:14,600 --> 01:18:18,240
the initial selling climax that we have
here.
1049
01:18:19,940 --> 01:18:21,640
Okay, Rama, do you see that?
1050
01:18:22,140 --> 01:18:23,140
Yes.
1051
01:18:23,600 --> 01:18:27,740
Okay, so maybe something, you know, to
kind of like work with the next
1052
01:18:27,900 --> 01:18:34,480
just, you know, identifying those areas,
different textures, but different
1053
01:18:34,480 --> 01:18:38,180
tests, but, you know, they all create
the same structure. Okay, so if we're
1054
01:18:38,180 --> 01:18:42,800
talking about different, you know,
textures and structures within the logic
1055
01:18:42,800 --> 01:18:47,940
structure, then as we've identified
tests here and identified the phases
1056
01:18:48,060 --> 01:18:53,120
then I could say that if this is test
number one, Test number one is going to
1057
01:18:53,120 --> 01:18:54,400
associated with phase A.
1058
01:18:54,820 --> 01:19:01,660
This whole thing is test number two
associated with phase B. Then this is
1059
01:19:01,660 --> 01:19:05,160
to be associated with C.
1060
01:19:06,420 --> 01:19:13,200
Okay, and that's how simple it is for us
to think
1061
01:19:13,200 --> 01:19:14,200
about this.
1062
01:19:17,200 --> 01:19:20,760
such complex structures that we see, you
know, in test number two and number
1063
01:19:20,760 --> 01:19:27,720
three, but they're all actions around
the same area, right? They are all
1064
01:19:27,720 --> 01:19:34,720
the tests of the action that we see
prior, you know, to testing area.
1065
01:19:35,080 --> 01:19:41,600
Okay, so if this is the case, then let's
relabel this. Phase A, then phase B
1066
01:19:41,600 --> 01:19:46,100
probably goes to what? To this point
right here, right? Yes, yeah, yeah.
1067
01:19:46,730 --> 01:19:52,970
And then phase C is going to either be
concluded here or it's going to be
1068
01:19:52,970 --> 01:19:53,970
concluded here.
1069
01:19:54,210 --> 01:19:56,790
So we have two scenarios here.
1070
01:19:57,090 --> 01:20:03,930
Okay, so how would we, let's say, is
there any other labeling that we need
1071
01:20:03,930 --> 01:20:05,510
to do here? Where is our phase D?
1072
01:20:07,250 --> 01:20:11,510
I would consider the second.
1073
01:20:12,060 --> 01:20:16,540
C you have put there as D, more D rather
than C.
1074
01:20:16,840 --> 01:20:23,500
And I would consider the first C to be
the real phase C because of the
1075
01:20:23,500 --> 01:20:27,880
signs of strength I see. It's making
higher lows.
1076
01:20:28,540 --> 01:20:34,340
And that to me is the beginning of the
new uptrend.
1077
01:20:35,500 --> 01:20:36,500
Okay.
1078
01:20:37,080 --> 01:20:38,420
Yeah, I like that.
1079
01:20:39,840 --> 01:20:44,880
At the same time, I would say that there
are probably two ways of how we could
1080
01:20:44,880 --> 01:20:45,880
label this.
1081
01:20:46,040 --> 01:20:49,840
So let's say phase D labeling at this
point.
1082
01:20:50,980 --> 01:20:52,520
Okay, so two ways.
1083
01:20:52,800 --> 01:20:55,940
The first one is exactly what Rama is
describing.
1084
01:20:56,460 --> 01:21:01,540
We are in phase C here in the smaller
formation.
1085
01:21:01,780 --> 01:21:07,980
Then look at how Rally is committing to
the upside over the
1086
01:21:08,490 --> 01:21:10,530
what seems to be an apex formation.
1087
01:21:10,950 --> 01:21:16,010
And we know that in the apex formation,
the sign of strength is actually not
1088
01:21:16,010 --> 01:21:17,210
going to be very good.
1089
01:21:17,430 --> 01:21:19,530
It's not going to be extremely distinct.
1090
01:21:19,770 --> 01:21:26,150
But what it's going to show out of the
place of uncertainty, where both
1091
01:21:26,150 --> 01:21:32,690
buyers and sellers are inactive, they're
just waiting for new information to
1092
01:21:32,690 --> 01:21:35,390
arrive, either to act.
1093
01:21:36,300 --> 01:21:40,920
on the buyers or maybe to add to the
buyers or maybe to close the buyers that
1094
01:21:40,920 --> 01:21:41,759
they have.
1095
01:21:41,760 --> 01:21:47,660
So at this point of time, a small sign
of strength suggests that there's a
1096
01:21:47,660 --> 01:21:54,080
little bit more buyers and supply is
exhausted at this point, so we could
1097
01:21:54,080 --> 01:21:55,860
the price much, much easier.
1098
01:21:56,700 --> 01:22:00,620
So a sign of strength in the apex
formation is always going to be that
1099
01:22:00,620 --> 01:22:07,130
thing. And then the backing up action,
comes exactly on the second reactionary
1100
01:22:07,130 --> 01:22:10,770
leg to the down slope and the
resistance.
1101
01:22:11,170 --> 01:22:15,310
So that acts as a backing up action, and
therefore this is phase D.
1102
01:22:15,690 --> 01:22:21,990
So this is what we have, apex, and then
a sign of strength that is going to be
1103
01:22:21,990 --> 01:22:23,610
just a little bit small.
1104
01:22:24,890 --> 01:22:31,710
And then the second label in here, which
is also acceptable, is going to be more
1105
01:22:31,710 --> 01:22:32,710
about
1106
01:22:33,640 --> 01:22:40,400
a much larger phase D, right? So we
could say that this move to the
1107
01:22:40,400 --> 01:22:45,680
upside that overcomes the up thrust
action and the buy -in climax of the
1108
01:22:45,680 --> 01:22:46,680
distribution formation.
1109
01:22:48,160 --> 01:22:52,160
is a major sign of strength and by
definition the price goes through the
1110
01:22:52,160 --> 01:22:56,740
range commits to the upside and look at
the commitment so many closes above so
1111
01:22:56,740 --> 01:23:01,580
this is a really good commitment to the
upside spend some time in there and then
1112
01:23:01,580 --> 01:23:07,380
reacts exactly to the area of the
support that acted before as the
1113
01:23:07,380 --> 01:23:13,860
therefore we could see a major sign of
strength with the major backing up
1114
01:23:16,360 --> 01:23:20,600
And then we would identify this as a
minus sign of strength.
1115
01:23:22,000 --> 01:23:25,140
So that labeling is also acceptable.
1116
01:23:25,460 --> 01:23:32,060
Please note that for trading purposes,
again, it doesn't really matter.
1117
01:23:32,400 --> 01:23:39,260
Why? Well, because if you're identifying
this as your potential phase D, then
1118
01:23:39,260 --> 01:23:43,420
your position in reaccumulation is going
to be...
1119
01:23:43,630 --> 01:23:46,470
most likely the first position is going
to be opened in phase C.
1120
01:23:47,050 --> 01:23:52,530
Your second position is going to be, and
third, your second, third, and fourth
1121
01:23:52,530 --> 01:23:54,150
position are all going to be here.
1122
01:23:54,350 --> 01:23:59,810
So from one to four, all of this is
going to be a very active zone for you
1123
01:23:59,810 --> 01:24:00,870
act on.
1124
01:24:01,190 --> 01:24:06,550
And then after the major sign of
strength and the major backing up
1125
01:24:06,590 --> 01:24:11,470
that's number five that you would be
thinking of opening. So from that
1126
01:24:11,470 --> 01:24:13,170
perspective, it doesn't really matter.
1127
01:24:13,530 --> 01:24:18,650
you will still be operating in this
space you know you still will be a
1128
01:24:18,650 --> 01:24:25,550
here all right rama really good really
good start i definitely feel um a
1129
01:24:25,550 --> 01:24:32,470
lot of kind of like um knowledge that is
already there so a lot of um i also
1130
01:24:32,470 --> 01:24:38,350
hear a lot of correct semantics that are
associated with this course you know so
1131
01:24:39,040 --> 01:24:43,560
You know, so a lot of things. So just
continue. And for you specifically, I
1132
01:24:43,560 --> 01:24:47,700
would say nuances, details. That's going
to be extremely important, right?
1133
01:24:48,400 --> 01:24:53,600
Okay. So just, you know, absorb all of
this knowledge and just make notes and,
1134
01:24:53,640 --> 01:24:56,120
you know, concentrate on those details.
1135
01:24:56,940 --> 01:24:59,120
Yeah. All right. Great. Thank you.
1136
01:24:59,720 --> 01:25:00,720
Thank you.
1137
01:25:01,260 --> 01:25:03,780
I'm sorry, Ram. I muted you. Okay.
1138
01:25:05,660 --> 01:25:06,539
All right.
1139
01:25:06,540 --> 01:25:10,720
Let's quickly look at that question that
we had, and thank you, Lee, for sending
1140
01:25:10,720 --> 01:25:14,520
this chart. That was really quick and
cool, and sometimes I'm going to request
1141
01:25:14,520 --> 01:25:18,640
you guys. I don't want to be distracted,
but, you know, you guys could
1142
01:25:18,640 --> 01:25:24,920
definitely quickly find what I'm looking
for and email me. So we were looking at
1143
01:25:24,920 --> 01:25:30,640
this spread, and we said that most
likely the volume signature is going to
1144
01:25:30,640 --> 01:25:31,640
increase here.
1145
01:25:31,940 --> 01:25:34,060
Why? Well, look at the gap.
1146
01:25:34,540 --> 01:25:38,920
That's number one. So that usually is
some kind of event, probably, well,
1147
01:25:39,220 --> 01:25:45,000
definitely overnight event, where
institutions have not produced so much
1148
01:25:45,000 --> 01:25:46,260
excitement before.
1149
01:25:46,540 --> 01:25:51,580
Like any other gaps that we see on the
way up, they are much smaller, right?
1150
01:25:52,260 --> 01:25:54,760
And this is not a gap.
1151
01:25:55,160 --> 01:25:58,000
And then this is a huge gap.
1152
01:26:00,330 --> 01:26:04,310
And the huge gap is always going to be
associated with more interest from
1153
01:26:04,310 --> 01:26:06,710
institutions, and we see a continuation
to the upside.
1154
01:26:07,030 --> 01:26:11,410
And actually, I forgot to mention that,
you know, this change of character bar
1155
01:26:11,410 --> 01:26:16,730
most likely is going to have also a very
high volume signature just because of
1156
01:26:16,730 --> 01:26:20,110
the function of the supply that came on
the buying plan itself.
1157
01:26:21,050 --> 01:26:24,850
So that was a really good call. And then
also...
1158
01:26:25,290 --> 01:26:29,870
This is going to be one of the exercises
that I'm going to give you guys in the
1159
01:26:29,870 --> 01:26:33,510
practical when you're going to graduate
to a more advanced level.
1160
01:26:34,230 --> 01:26:41,170
One of the things that we practice in
the practical course is reading
1161
01:26:41,170 --> 01:26:47,790
the volume signature of the price and
reading price signature of the volume.
1162
01:26:48,890 --> 01:26:54,250
What it does, it kind of opens up the
new dimension of understanding.
1163
01:26:54,990 --> 01:27:00,710
as to what do we expect the volume on
the price to be on the specific bar,
1164
01:27:00,910 --> 01:27:03,190
whether it's the price or the volume
bar.
1165
01:27:03,390 --> 01:27:09,150
And that's exactly what I did here, just
kind of like deducing as to what kind
1166
01:27:09,150 --> 01:27:15,130
of volume signature could be at this
contextual place with this particular
1167
01:27:16,230 --> 01:27:17,490
All right, great.
1168
01:27:19,070 --> 01:27:23,130
Let's look at some questions really
quick.
1169
01:27:33,100 --> 01:27:39,040
What is the difference between labeling
secondary test after the selling climax
1170
01:27:39,040 --> 01:27:43,620
or labeling a shakeout, reaccumulation
versus shakeout schematic?
1171
01:27:44,140 --> 01:27:45,140
Okay, yeah.
1172
01:27:45,340 --> 01:27:47,480
So this was the question here.
1173
01:27:47,840 --> 01:27:50,660
Selling climax, automatic rally.
1174
01:27:50,880 --> 01:27:53,900
Could we possibly label this as a
shakeout?
1175
01:27:54,600 --> 01:27:55,740
Yeah, we can.
1176
01:27:56,120 --> 01:28:01,640
Usually the shakeout in the
reaccumulation is something where we
1177
01:28:01,640 --> 01:28:02,640
climax.
1178
01:28:02,830 --> 01:28:09,690
and then we have some kind of shakeout
right away we don't have it here we
1179
01:28:09,690 --> 01:28:15,470
have a buying climax and then we have an
area of the distribution and that
1180
01:28:15,470 --> 01:28:19,550
usually suggests the distribution
usually suggests what there's going to
1181
01:28:19,550 --> 01:28:23,050
kind of downtrend that's going to come
and downtrend is going to be
1182
01:28:24,099 --> 01:28:27,940
concluded with the stopping action,
which is going to be labeled by us as
1183
01:28:27,940 --> 01:28:28,858
selling climax.
1184
01:28:28,860 --> 01:28:33,380
So my preference in this particular case
would be just to label this as a
1185
01:28:33,380 --> 01:28:38,380
selling climax and extend the
boundaries, you know, from the selling
1186
01:28:38,380 --> 01:28:40,100
from the automatic reaction.
1187
01:28:40,760 --> 01:28:47,640
or automatic rally, rather, and then in
the reaccumulation structures where we
1188
01:28:47,640 --> 01:28:51,540
have a very quick move to the downside
without a lot of the distributional
1189
01:28:51,540 --> 01:28:55,720
activity, you know, you could say, like,
okay, this could be interpreted as a
1190
01:28:55,720 --> 01:29:01,040
shakeout action. I will keep this in
mind, and I will point this maybe on
1191
01:29:01,040 --> 01:29:02,040
slides.
1192
01:29:02,500 --> 01:29:03,820
Okay, next one.
1193
01:29:10,700 --> 01:29:17,380
If we were in September, and I'm
assuming what September,
1194
01:29:17,580 --> 01:29:24,020
where this September or and this
question comes from Philip or
1195
01:29:24,020 --> 01:29:25,420
this September.
1196
01:29:25,640 --> 01:29:31,640
OK, so probably this one right here. So
if we were in September, wouldn't we
1197
01:29:31,640 --> 01:29:32,820
interpret the rally?
1198
01:29:37,680 --> 01:29:44,300
as a phase D with backing up action
right before September. This one right
1199
01:29:47,180 --> 01:29:51,140
Okay, and the backing up action to what?
To which range? To this one?
1200
01:29:57,480 --> 01:30:03,640
So backing up action should be coming
back to
1201
01:30:03,640 --> 01:30:05,300
deformation, right?
1202
01:30:05,900 --> 01:30:07,240
to their original formation.
1203
01:30:07,520 --> 01:30:13,620
So we have, for instance, we could say
that here we have a minor backing up
1204
01:30:13,620 --> 01:30:19,820
action, and it's a part of this
formation. Then we have a larger backing
1205
01:30:19,820 --> 01:30:26,480
action, major backing up action, and
it's a part still of this whole
1206
01:30:28,480 --> 01:30:32,060
You know, if we would have some kind of,
you know,
1207
01:30:33,450 --> 01:30:38,290
that would be something like this,
where, you know, we've seen that maybe
1208
01:30:38,290 --> 01:30:42,870
whole move is a sign of strength and
then this is the backing up action that
1209
01:30:42,870 --> 01:30:47,830
its own trading range, then probably,
yes, we could do this. I think it's less
1210
01:30:47,830 --> 01:30:53,430
obvious in this case, Philip. So I
probably would be just thinking that,
1211
01:30:53,430 --> 01:30:57,410
know, it's just a trading range on its
own. It's a reaccumulation.
1212
01:30:58,400 --> 01:31:02,400
We had an accumulation range, a move up,
and now we are just in the
1213
01:31:02,400 --> 01:31:03,400
reaccumulation.
1214
01:31:03,860 --> 01:31:06,620
Okay, but good clarifying question
there.
1215
01:31:07,240 --> 01:31:12,600
Is it common that one can identify
phases of the larger range with smaller
1216
01:31:12,600 --> 01:31:15,180
ranges within that larger range?
1217
01:31:15,760 --> 01:31:21,820
Yeah, we could definitely do this. One
of the things, you know, again, to do is
1218
01:31:21,820 --> 01:31:23,900
that, you know, texture analysis, right?
1219
01:31:24,910 --> 01:31:29,490
If you could instantly see that there
are smaller ranges here that could be
1220
01:31:29,490 --> 01:31:33,710
labeled, by the way. I mean, look at
this. Cell and climax, automatic rally,
1221
01:31:33,930 --> 01:31:40,710
secondary test, phase A, B, B, C, sign
of strength, backing up
1222
01:31:40,710 --> 01:31:45,890
action or LPS, major sign of strength,
major backing up action.
1223
01:31:46,370 --> 01:31:52,870
Cell and climax, automatic rally,
secondary test, phase A, B, B, C.
1224
01:31:53,840 --> 01:31:58,900
sign of strength, shakeout type of
reaction in D, LPS.
1225
01:31:59,560 --> 01:32:00,600
Here we go.
1226
01:32:00,820 --> 01:32:07,220
This one, saline climax, automatic
rally, secondary test, phase A, B, C,
1227
01:32:07,360 --> 01:32:10,960
LPS, and so forth.
1228
01:32:11,220 --> 01:32:13,600
So you could see how you could label.
1229
01:32:15,450 --> 01:32:18,670
even smaller structures. And again, you
know, we could label this structure
1230
01:32:18,670 --> 01:32:22,410
right here. We could label this
structure right here, this structure
1231
01:32:22,430 --> 01:32:23,550
this structure right here.
1232
01:32:24,590 --> 01:32:26,210
Everywhere there are trading ranges.
1233
01:32:26,430 --> 01:32:32,950
If you just get this concept that you
look at the market through the prism of
1234
01:32:32,950 --> 01:32:37,670
different structures, whether it's a
trend or non -trend, whether it's at the
1235
01:32:37,670 --> 01:32:42,670
higher, larger timeframe, like, you
know, a large formation or a smaller
1236
01:32:42,670 --> 01:32:44,210
formation like this three.
1237
01:32:44,620 --> 01:32:47,960
that I've shown you. By the way, here is
another range. Here is another range,
1238
01:32:48,120 --> 01:32:54,060
right? So all of those are just ranges
between the swings of the trading range.
1239
01:32:54,240 --> 01:32:59,040
If you can understand this concept and
it kind of becomes natural to you, you
1240
01:32:59,040 --> 01:33:03,920
will start looking at the market in a
different way. And usually during the
1241
01:33:03,920 --> 01:33:07,660
first month, you know, I receive a lot
of emails from students that just say
1242
01:33:07,660 --> 01:33:11,080
like, oh my gosh, I look at the markets,
I look at these.
1243
01:33:11,440 --> 01:33:16,980
chart and all i see is just all of those
formations and it's so much easier for
1244
01:33:16,980 --> 01:33:21,780
me now to interpret the market action
you know through those formations so
1245
01:33:21,780 --> 01:33:26,880
hopefully we'll get to this point all
right um
1246
01:33:26,880 --> 01:33:32,600
okay what else okay
1247
01:33:32,600 --> 01:33:38,180
so a comment from dog actually um
1248
01:33:42,019 --> 01:33:48,900
Preliminary supply in May and then
buying climax in July.
1249
01:33:49,240 --> 01:33:55,580
So what are we looking at? This
preliminary
1250
01:33:55,580 --> 01:33:56,800
supply?
1251
01:33:57,640 --> 01:34:03,060
Doug, is this the one? Is this the
formation that we look at and buying
1252
01:34:03,060 --> 01:34:04,960
in July like this?
1253
01:34:08,940 --> 01:34:11,280
Was that your interpretation, Doug?
1254
01:34:15,020 --> 01:34:19,100
To the right for, this is the
preliminary supply, this.
1255
01:34:23,900 --> 01:34:29,580
Okay, great. Okay, so Doug has
suggested, what about this type of
1256
01:34:29,740 --> 01:34:34,920
right? So by in Climax, then obviously
we could go with either cell in Climax
1257
01:34:34,920 --> 01:34:39,660
we could go this whole thing with the
automatic reaction and then secondary
1258
01:34:39,660 --> 01:34:42,080
test. This could be phase A.
1259
01:34:42,320 --> 01:34:44,240
And then let's say phase B.
1260
01:34:44,750 --> 01:34:51,550
and then phase c uh on the level of
trading because
1261
01:34:51,550 --> 01:34:58,470
we will be trading here that doesn't
really matter and if you label it like
1262
01:34:58,470 --> 01:35:04,250
that that's fine where i have the
problem with this labeling is these two
1263
01:35:04,250 --> 01:35:10,430
right here so i'm gonna redo this a
little bit and then you'll see what i
1264
01:35:10,910 --> 01:35:16,090
So, let's say that we're still in the
automatic reaction, secondary test,
1265
01:35:16,090 --> 01:35:23,070
A, and then it goes into phase B and
phase C. This doesn't really matter to
1266
01:35:23,290 --> 01:35:24,510
But what comes before?
1267
01:35:25,830 --> 01:35:32,710
When we put, let's say, a buy -in climax
right here at this point, we're
1268
01:35:32,710 --> 01:35:37,990
basically neglecting the fact that the
buy -in climax characteristics happened
1269
01:35:37,990 --> 01:35:38,989
before that.
1270
01:35:38,990 --> 01:35:43,370
And we went through those. A gap,
acceleration to the upside, climactic
1271
01:35:43,490 --> 01:35:48,530
acceleration of momentum, extreme volume
signature, which just basically screams
1272
01:35:48,530 --> 01:35:55,450
at you and tells you that if it stops on
this climactic volume, then most
1273
01:35:55,450 --> 01:35:56,850
likely this is a buying climax.
1274
01:35:57,090 --> 01:36:02,550
So it's the character that does not
allow us to say that this is a buying
1275
01:36:02,550 --> 01:36:03,550
climax.
1276
01:36:03,690 --> 01:36:10,240
So therefore, the second point here is
that it has its own formation so what is
1277
01:36:10,240 --> 01:36:14,720
the bias of this formation the bias of
this formation is the distribution so
1278
01:36:14,720 --> 01:36:19,960
therefore we would be labeling this as
an up thrust in phase c so therefore the
1279
01:36:19,960 --> 01:36:25,240
preliminary supply is going to come
somewhere here so that's the only thing
1280
01:36:25,240 --> 01:36:30,100
i would redo but everything else again
for trading purposes you could say that
1281
01:36:30,100 --> 01:36:35,160
this whole thing is the buying climax so
sometimes i would say buying climax
1282
01:36:35,160 --> 01:36:38,870
trading range What does it mean? This
means some kind of distribution, local
1283
01:36:38,870 --> 01:36:41,250
formation that would take us down.
1284
01:36:41,970 --> 01:36:48,210
But, you know, I would probably not
identify this necessarily as a buying
1285
01:36:48,210 --> 01:36:51,890
climax. So this whole thing, you could
say a buying climax trading range.
1286
01:36:52,290 --> 01:36:53,290
All right.
1287
01:36:53,650 --> 01:36:54,930
Great. Thank you, Doug.
1288
01:36:55,390 --> 01:36:56,710
And what else?
1289
01:37:01,000 --> 01:37:06,540
I thought that in phase D, I should
search for biggest rally of the whole
1290
01:37:06,540 --> 01:37:10,940
starting from the support level. So the
part of the first phase C should be in
1291
01:37:10,940 --> 01:37:13,840
phase D, so from Philip. So we're
talking about this spot.
1292
01:37:14,380 --> 01:37:21,200
Okay, so yes, when we look at the
horizontal range, we're
1293
01:37:21,200 --> 01:37:26,660
looking at the sign of strength and the
backing up action as our change of
1294
01:37:26,660 --> 01:37:29,600
character confirmation.
1295
01:37:30,590 --> 01:37:36,550
And usually the sign of strength rally
will be the largest rally in this whole
1296
01:37:36,550 --> 01:37:37,550
trading range.
1297
01:37:38,410 --> 01:37:41,870
And that's in the horizontal formation
like this.
1298
01:37:42,230 --> 01:37:44,810
In the apex formation,
1299
01:37:44,970 --> 01:37:51,330
where there is a lot of inactivity
1300
01:37:51,330 --> 01:37:58,030
by market participants, a smaller sign
of strength
1301
01:37:58,950 --> 01:38:03,470
could be that timing mechanism that
defines a change of character.
1302
01:38:03,790 --> 01:38:10,690
So we would be looking at all of the
rallies that occur after the last point
1303
01:38:10,690 --> 01:38:16,770
where supply has increased or supply has
produced some kind of downward result
1304
01:38:16,770 --> 01:38:19,850
that was exceeding the result to the
downside before.
1305
01:38:20,210 --> 01:38:26,970
And we see that the rally there, this
rally, is basically the best rally
1306
01:38:26,970 --> 01:38:27,970
that we see.
1307
01:38:28,080 --> 01:38:29,120
in this formation.
1308
01:38:29,640 --> 01:38:31,780
So it's a little bit of a nuance.
1309
01:38:32,380 --> 01:38:34,320
We'll talk about this later on.
1310
01:38:34,620 --> 01:38:38,720
But I'm so happy that you guys are
seeing this, that you're asking the
1311
01:38:38,720 --> 01:38:43,620
questions. Because if you're asking the
correct question, this means that the
1312
01:38:43,620 --> 01:38:48,720
logic that we explained before was also
good and we just did not cover this.
1313
01:38:48,940 --> 01:38:51,540
So that's great. All right. So really
good exercise.
1314
01:38:51,960 --> 01:38:52,960
All right.
1315
01:38:54,080 --> 01:39:00,160
Okay, so with each of these slides for
the homework, I'm going to give you guys
1316
01:39:00,160 --> 01:39:06,080
my interpretation, and you could go
through this as a homework and just
1317
01:39:06,080 --> 01:39:12,700
all of the labeling that I've done here
in these boxes, gray boxes, and
1318
01:39:12,700 --> 01:39:17,840
identifying changes of character, and so
on and so forth.
1319
01:39:22,250 --> 01:39:26,930
Hopefully that's helpful. Now let's talk
about phase boundaries. So this is that
1320
01:39:26,930 --> 01:39:30,470
theoretical slide that we're going to
have, and we're talking about
1321
01:39:30,470 --> 01:39:31,470
here.
1322
01:39:32,430 --> 01:39:36,510
So how do we define phase boundaries?
It's extremely important for us to
1323
01:39:36,510 --> 01:39:39,090
understand where we put the boundary.
1324
01:39:39,310 --> 01:39:45,490
And sometimes it becomes so subjective
that as I was receiving so many
1325
01:39:45,490 --> 01:39:50,550
from students, I realized that I need to
kind of like, you know, stop all of the
1326
01:39:50,550 --> 01:39:55,670
discretionary talk as to where we are
putting the batteries and that just to
1327
01:39:55,670 --> 01:40:00,690
define exactly where we would put that
border between phases.
1328
01:40:01,210 --> 01:40:05,610
So let's go through this. And we're
going to start with something slightly
1329
01:40:05,610 --> 01:40:10,970
different. The first thing, and this is
one of the most important things right
1330
01:40:10,970 --> 01:40:14,270
now at this point of the course that I
want you to remember.
1331
01:40:14,550 --> 01:40:15,930
I want you to...
1332
01:40:16,400 --> 01:40:22,560
Remember by heart the sequence of
Wyckoff events throughout all of the
1333
01:40:22,560 --> 01:40:23,860
accumulation and the distribution.
1334
01:40:24,720 --> 01:40:29,560
And therefore, I just want you to
remember that phase A is going to start
1335
01:40:29,560 --> 01:40:30,660
the preliminary support,
1336
01:40:31,600 --> 01:40:36,740
going to the stop in action by the
selling climax, change of character as
1337
01:40:36,740 --> 01:40:40,260
automatic rally, and confirmation of
that change of character as a secondary
1338
01:40:40,260 --> 01:40:43,300
test. That secondary test is going to be
a local test.
1339
01:40:43,840 --> 01:40:45,800
and test number one to the tailwind
climax.
1340
01:40:48,000 --> 01:40:54,380
Phase B is going to have in the
accumulation either a secondary test
1341
01:40:54,380 --> 01:40:59,940
at the support level or an upthrust
action
1342
01:40:59,940 --> 01:41:06,520
at the resistance level. So these two
are mechanisms
1343
01:41:06,520 --> 01:41:07,800
of testing.
1344
01:41:08,120 --> 01:41:10,820
Testing what? Testing both supply and
demand.
1345
01:41:11,340 --> 01:41:17,640
at the support and the resistance level
in in the instances when the price is
1346
01:41:17,640 --> 01:41:22,120
going to overcome the resistance we're
going to say that we're looking at the
1347
01:41:22,120 --> 01:41:28,520
thrust action sometimes i label it as up
thrust action like this uta and
1348
01:41:28,520 --> 01:41:33,780
then if we're going to have a lower low
then we're going to label it as a
1349
01:41:33,780 --> 01:41:39,040
secondary test as a sign of weakness as
a minor sign of weakness actually yeah
1350
01:41:39,200 --> 01:41:40,940
Some small corrections here are needed.
1351
01:41:41,840 --> 01:41:46,660
Phase C is going to have either a high
-low, and we're going to label it as a
1352
01:41:46,660 --> 01:41:51,420
last point of support, or it's going to
have a low -low, and then we will be
1353
01:41:51,420 --> 01:41:54,060
talking about either a spring or a shake
-out.
1354
01:41:54,900 --> 01:42:01,620
Phase C also could have a test, not
necessarily a secondary test, but a
1355
01:42:01,620 --> 01:42:05,040
local test to a spring or a shake -out.
1356
01:42:09,150 --> 01:42:11,690
Last point of support,
1357
01:42:12,450 --> 01:42:16,590
sign of strength bar, sign of strength
rally, and the backing up action.
1358
01:42:17,010 --> 01:42:21,630
Usually phase D will be discussed mostly
around sign of strength rally and the
1359
01:42:21,630 --> 01:42:22,630
backing up action.
1360
01:42:22,690 --> 01:42:28,350
The sign of strength bar has been added,
you know, to the methodology by me
1361
01:42:28,350 --> 01:42:30,190
just, you know, for the class purposes.
1362
01:42:30,750 --> 01:42:36,170
This is the spot where in the middle of
the range we're identifying emergence of
1363
01:42:37,429 --> 01:42:40,670
institutional urgency to buy, to be in
this position.
1364
01:42:40,930 --> 01:42:46,210
And this is one of the points of entry
for us in accumulation on the way up.
1365
01:42:46,370 --> 01:42:47,710
We'll talk about this more.
1366
01:42:47,990 --> 01:42:53,330
Last point of support are going to be
all of the reactionary lows on the sign
1367
01:42:53,330 --> 01:42:56,250
strength rally that present some kind of
buying opportunity.
1368
01:42:56,570 --> 01:43:01,270
Those are going to be short -term
weakness situations where we're going to
1369
01:43:01,270 --> 01:43:04,130
that the long -term bias is to the
upside.
1370
01:43:04,680 --> 01:43:07,560
But the short -term bias has some kind
of weakness,
1371
01:43:07,900 --> 01:43:14,860
bearish bias behind it. And those are
going to be
1372
01:43:14,860 --> 01:43:19,180
the spots that are going to be
associated with establishing or adding
1373
01:43:19,180 --> 01:43:20,180
position.
1374
01:43:21,440 --> 01:43:25,340
Then we've talked about two changes of
character in the rate accumulation.
1375
01:43:26,060 --> 01:43:32,120
And originally, again, I've talked about
this.
1376
01:43:32,940 --> 01:43:38,700
Originally, when I was studying Wyckoff
Method and Hank was introducing me to
1377
01:43:38,700 --> 01:43:42,300
this concept, Hank had a concept of the
change of behavior.
1378
01:43:42,640 --> 01:43:46,160
He never actually specifically talked
about the change of character.
1379
01:43:46,440 --> 01:43:52,960
So change of behavior was basically
identified in late
1380
01:43:52,960 --> 01:43:59,120
Phase B and in Phase C and in Phase D.
1381
01:43:59,440 --> 01:44:02,380
And what Hank was talking about is
1382
01:44:03,690 --> 01:44:10,510
So a change in behavior as behavior on
the rally could become
1383
01:44:10,510 --> 01:44:12,390
more bullish.
1384
01:44:14,610 --> 01:44:19,370
And then behavior on the reaction at
some point could become more bullish as
1385
01:44:19,370 --> 01:44:24,370
well. So for instance, when we look at
the chart and we look, let's say, maybe
1386
01:44:24,370 --> 01:44:30,170
at this reaction right here. For the
first time, reaction creates a high and
1387
01:44:30,170 --> 01:44:32,490
low. So that's a change of behavior.
1388
01:44:33,160 --> 01:44:38,280
It's not necessarily a change of
structure because a change of character
1389
01:44:38,280 --> 01:44:43,460
change of structure. But the change of
behavior is not necessarily a change of
1390
01:44:43,460 --> 01:44:50,120
structure per se, you know, where we are
confirming the best rally,
1391
01:44:50,260 --> 01:44:54,960
the sequence between the best rally and
the best reaction, right? So here's that
1392
01:44:54,960 --> 01:44:59,160
sequence, the best rally and then the
best reaction.
1393
01:44:59,520 --> 01:45:00,540
So here it is.
1394
01:45:01,240 --> 01:45:02,640
throughout this whole range.
1395
01:45:03,280 --> 01:45:08,620
So that is a change of character. But
change of behavior could be just a
1396
01:45:08,620 --> 01:45:14,860
rally and then the reaction is still
bearish or usual rally and then a better
1397
01:45:14,860 --> 01:45:17,860
reaction. So that would be a change of
behavior.
1398
01:45:18,640 --> 01:45:20,920
There are two changes of character that
I mentioned.
1399
01:45:21,300 --> 01:45:25,260
Our first change of character is going
to be associated with phase A.
1400
01:45:26,620 --> 01:45:29,700
So it's the change of character in...
1401
01:45:30,110 --> 01:45:35,010
into the trading range and it's going to
be defined as the rally between a
1402
01:45:35,010 --> 01:45:39,830
selling climax and automatic rally and
it's going to be confirmed by the
1403
01:45:39,830 --> 01:45:46,810
secondary test and then the second
change of character is going to be on
1404
01:45:46,810 --> 01:45:51,890
out of the trading range in phase d and
that's going to be a rally between phase
1405
01:45:51,890 --> 01:45:57,690
c low and sign of strength rally high so
here's the high here's the low here's
1406
01:45:57,690 --> 01:46:01,870
that change of character And it's being
confirmed by the backing up action after
1407
01:46:01,870 --> 01:46:02,870
that.
1408
01:46:05,250 --> 01:46:06,250
Phase boundaries.
1409
01:46:06,410 --> 01:46:07,910
So this is very important.
1410
01:46:08,330 --> 01:46:13,370
This is something that I was looking at
in all of your homework today.
1411
01:46:14,410 --> 01:46:17,070
So let's go through this. How do we
define the boundaries?
1412
01:46:17,370 --> 01:46:22,230
So let's talk about the boundary between
phase A and phase B.
1413
01:46:22,570 --> 01:46:26,870
Well, what do we have to see there? So
we want to...
1414
01:46:28,080 --> 01:46:32,600
identify a secondary test as the
conclusion of phase A.
1415
01:46:33,300 --> 01:46:38,120
And then it's around this area, this is
where we would be looking for the
1416
01:46:38,120 --> 01:46:39,120
reversal.
1417
01:46:39,660 --> 01:46:43,860
Once we identify this reversal, this is
where we're going to put the boundary
1418
01:46:43,860 --> 01:46:49,260
between phase A and phase B. So why
would we do it like this?
1419
01:46:49,520 --> 01:46:54,700
Well, obviously we want to include all
of the points of phase A, which is
1420
01:46:54,700 --> 01:46:55,820
preliminary supply.
1421
01:46:56,720 --> 01:47:01,240
silent climax, automatic rally,
secondary test.
1422
01:47:01,620 --> 01:47:07,980
And then we want to identify the ending
of secondary test.
1423
01:47:08,260 --> 01:47:10,700
And secondary test is just a reaction.
1424
01:47:10,960 --> 01:47:16,000
So we want to find the reversal of a
downswing
1425
01:47:16,000 --> 01:47:22,940
that acts as a secondary test. And once
we find this
1426
01:47:22,940 --> 01:47:28,780
bar, that's where We're going to put the
boundary between
1427
01:47:28,780 --> 01:47:33,300
phases A and B.
1428
01:47:35,220 --> 01:47:41,740
We're going to do the same with the
boundary between phase C
1429
01:47:41,740 --> 01:47:47,540
and phase D. And in this case, it's a
little bit easier because we do have
1430
01:47:47,540 --> 01:47:48,540
another test.
1431
01:47:49,200 --> 01:47:52,840
And that test is also just a downswing.
1432
01:47:54,220 --> 01:47:57,260
So for this down swing, we're going to
look for the reversal.
1433
01:47:57,800 --> 01:48:04,320
And the reversal bar is going to be our
boundary between phases C and
1434
01:48:04,320 --> 01:48:06,200
D. So it's somewhere here.
1435
01:48:08,380 --> 01:48:15,280
And then the boundary between phases B
and C is the... By
1436
01:48:15,280 --> 01:48:17,480
the way, let's just do phase D as well.
1437
01:48:17,790 --> 01:48:22,130
right away so kind of the same concept
right so backing up action is going to
1438
01:48:22,130 --> 01:48:29,070
a reaction so in the reaction we want to
to look for the reversal so here it's a
1439
01:48:29,070 --> 01:48:33,450
little bit more complex like it was here
as well so we see the stopping action
1440
01:48:33,450 --> 01:48:38,710
and then we see a minor test so it's out
of this minor test that the boundary
1441
01:48:38,710 --> 01:48:44,530
would occur we see here a reaction and
the test to this reaction so it's out of
1442
01:48:44,530 --> 01:48:49,100
the you know that test on the reversal
of that test. This is where the boundary
1443
01:48:49,100 --> 01:48:50,100
is going to be created.
1444
01:48:50,260 --> 01:48:55,560
Now the boundary between phase B and
phase C is a little bit more
1445
01:48:56,200 --> 01:49:01,860
Because basically we need to understand
the intention behind phase C, which is
1446
01:49:01,860 --> 01:49:02,940
what? Which is testing.
1447
01:49:03,600 --> 01:49:06,640
This is the final test at the support
level.
1448
01:49:07,020 --> 01:49:13,960
So therefore from this definition, as
this is the test, we need to find
1449
01:49:13,960 --> 01:49:15,660
the place in phase...
1450
01:49:15,950 --> 01:49:22,830
see where the the first attempt to test
uh the support level and we usually
1451
01:49:22,830 --> 01:49:29,710
look into phase b loads and we are
saying okay where is the first time when
1452
01:49:29,710 --> 01:49:36,170
loads of phase b were tested so
somewhere here in this area so and we
1453
01:49:36,170 --> 01:49:41,390
put the boundary exactly on this level
where the test has happened for phase b
1454
01:49:42,170 --> 01:49:47,170
So this is how we define the boundaries
for all of the phases. I really, guys,
1455
01:49:47,230 --> 01:49:52,850
would like you to stop here, you know,
stop the recording, make some notes,
1456
01:49:52,970 --> 01:49:58,870
think about this, maybe take a chart to
go through that, and just to think about
1457
01:49:58,870 --> 01:50:00,710
how you put in those boundaries.
1458
01:50:02,070 --> 01:50:03,070
All right, great.
1459
01:50:05,030 --> 01:50:09,810
Let's go to the next slide. So we are at
10 to 5, so we have still...
1460
01:50:10,160 --> 01:50:12,460
maybe an hour and 10 minutes.
1461
01:50:13,000 --> 01:50:16,720
All right. So say yes if you would like
to volunteer.
1462
01:50:16,940 --> 01:50:17,879
Who's next?
1463
01:50:17,880 --> 01:50:18,880
All right.
1464
01:50:19,120 --> 01:50:21,120
Just going to go with the first one,
Philip.
1465
01:50:22,060 --> 01:50:23,420
You have to unmute yourself.
1466
01:50:26,700 --> 01:50:27,700
Philip?
1467
01:50:31,700 --> 01:50:32,700
How are you doing?
1468
01:50:33,440 --> 01:50:35,220
Do you hear me?
1469
01:50:35,460 --> 01:50:37,620
Yes. Just speak up a little bit.
1470
01:50:38,480 --> 01:50:39,480
Okay, sorry.
1471
01:50:39,600 --> 01:50:41,560
Yeah, closer to the microphone. Okay,
great.
1472
01:50:41,820 --> 01:50:44,520
All right. Am I pronouncing your name
correctly, Philip?
1473
01:50:45,080 --> 01:50:46,480
Yeah, thank you. Okay.
1474
01:50:47,300 --> 01:50:49,160
So let's look at the first trading
range.
1475
01:50:50,140 --> 01:50:51,660
What is catching your eye?
1476
01:50:53,620 --> 01:50:55,940
Well, probably the selling climax.
1477
01:50:56,200 --> 01:50:57,840
Which is where? The large swings.
1478
01:50:58,140 --> 01:51:02,920
So let's label this for you. Point
number one, point number two,
1479
01:51:03,100 --> 01:51:06,960
three, and four.
1480
01:51:07,390 --> 01:51:08,990
Okay, which one is the selling climax?
1481
01:51:10,190 --> 01:51:15,270
Number two, the first would be the
preliminary support, I think.
1482
01:51:15,610 --> 01:51:19,270
Okay, so let's start with the
preliminary support, selling climax.
1483
01:51:19,590 --> 01:51:21,910
So let's go through the logic of this
labeling.
1484
01:51:22,350 --> 01:51:29,030
So we know that selling climax has to be
the stop in action, right? And then
1485
01:51:29,030 --> 01:51:33,410
after the stop in action, what should
happen next?
1486
01:51:36,839 --> 01:51:37,839
Automatic rally.
1487
01:51:38,260 --> 01:51:42,060
Next is going to be automatic rally. And
automatic rally is going to be
1488
01:51:42,060 --> 01:51:44,480
associated with what else?
1489
01:51:44,860 --> 01:51:50,240
With what kind of change of behavior,
change of character?
1490
01:51:50,600 --> 01:51:53,520
I'm kind of giving it out to you, right?
1491
01:51:53,860 --> 01:51:59,500
So a change of character, right? Yeah.
So a change of character is going to
1492
01:51:59,500 --> 01:52:00,980
like what?
1493
01:52:02,700 --> 01:52:07,420
Why is it called a change of character?
What would we see on this rally that is
1494
01:52:07,420 --> 01:52:09,700
going to be so different than what we've
seen before?
1495
01:52:10,480 --> 01:52:17,300
Well, maybe a bigger price swing than in
the rally before and
1496
01:52:17,300 --> 01:52:19,860
maybe a little bit of bigger volume.
1497
01:52:20,300 --> 01:52:24,400
Okay, great. And specifically maybe in
this case, because this is an
1498
01:52:24,400 --> 01:52:28,560
accumulation after the downtrend, demand
signature is going to go up, right? So
1499
01:52:28,560 --> 01:52:31,380
the distance of the rally could
increase.
1500
01:52:31,800 --> 01:52:36,980
the volume would go up, the demand is
going to increase, the upspread is going
1501
01:52:36,980 --> 01:52:43,780
to increase, right? So where for the
first time do we
1502
01:52:43,780 --> 01:52:49,920
see this type of price action and volume
action as well?
1503
01:52:53,460 --> 01:52:57,580
Well, maybe between one and two.
1504
01:52:57,900 --> 01:53:00,100
Yeah, this first rally, right?
1505
01:53:00,480 --> 01:53:02,940
From this low to this high?
1506
01:53:03,400 --> 01:53:07,800
Yeah. That looks like that rally that
you've just described is a change of
1507
01:53:07,800 --> 01:53:08,800
character. Why is that?
1508
01:53:09,160 --> 01:53:13,500
Well, the distance for the rally has
increased, right? Looking at the
1509
01:53:13,500 --> 01:53:14,960
attempts to rally, where is it?
1510
01:53:15,340 --> 01:53:16,318
Oh, here's one.
1511
01:53:16,320 --> 01:53:22,940
Here's another one. And this is the high
of that downswing. So this is the
1512
01:53:22,940 --> 01:53:25,260
largest reaction to the upside.
1513
01:53:26,000 --> 01:53:27,000
Look at the spread.
1514
01:53:27,100 --> 01:53:30,760
It's increasing as well. What can we say
about the volume signature, by the way,
1515
01:53:30,800 --> 01:53:31,800
Philip?
1516
01:53:32,600 --> 01:53:36,340
Just looking at the spread itself, what
do you think the volume is doing here?
1517
01:53:39,940 --> 01:53:40,940
Increasing, hopefully.
1518
01:53:41,520 --> 01:53:43,460
Okay, and why do you think it's
increasing?
1519
01:53:47,400 --> 01:53:54,040
Well, because it looked like there was a
fight between where the ending
1520
01:53:54,040 --> 01:53:55,040
price will be.
1521
01:53:55,370 --> 01:54:02,330
and the difference between the range of
the tick of the wicks
1522
01:54:02,330 --> 01:54:05,870
and the ending prices, I think. Yes,
absolutely.
1523
01:54:06,410 --> 01:54:08,330
And what is this fight?
1524
01:54:08,550 --> 01:54:09,970
How would we call this fight?
1525
01:54:10,350 --> 01:54:17,230
It's the fight of volatility, right? So
there is a climactic run to the downside
1526
01:54:17,230 --> 01:54:19,550
that increases the supply tremendously.
1527
01:54:20,190 --> 01:54:21,450
I mean, we're seeing how...
1528
01:54:22,010 --> 01:54:25,870
It's a general capitulation here. It's
not institutional. It's not public
1529
01:54:25,870 --> 01:54:28,230
capitulation. Everyone is capitulating
here.
1530
01:54:28,650 --> 01:54:32,730
There is a gap to the downside, big
spread to the downside. The first
1531
01:54:32,730 --> 01:54:34,850
momentum is to the downside.
1532
01:54:35,610 --> 01:54:39,410
So the day on the intraday level is
going to look like this.
1533
01:54:39,770 --> 01:54:40,770
Previous close.
1534
01:54:42,590 --> 01:54:43,610
Maybe open.
1535
01:54:45,410 --> 01:54:50,110
I'm sorry. Open is going to be at the
low here. So this is open.
1536
01:54:51,340 --> 01:54:54,200
And then momentum is going to carry us
down first.
1537
01:54:54,940 --> 01:54:58,560
That's going to be my first initialized
option. Then we're going to have the
1538
01:54:58,560 --> 01:55:03,160
rally. And then it's going to carry us
to the close of the previous day.
1539
01:55:04,020 --> 01:55:08,020
So that's how the action would look
like. So supply has increased.
1540
01:55:08,360 --> 01:55:09,940
Then demand has increased.
1541
01:55:11,100 --> 01:55:13,240
And then supply has increased again.
1542
01:55:13,460 --> 01:55:17,080
So there is a lot of volatility during
this intraday action.
1543
01:55:17,790 --> 01:55:22,870
which brings basically the volume
signature increase and then most likely
1544
01:55:22,870 --> 01:55:28,010
kind of spike on that day. So therefore,
a fight between the buyers and sellers
1545
01:55:28,010 --> 01:55:34,810
creates volatility, which volatility and
volume is just so connected together,
1546
01:55:35,010 --> 01:55:40,970
and increasing the volume suggests that
there is a potential increase in
1547
01:55:40,970 --> 01:55:41,970
volatility.
1548
01:55:42,110 --> 01:55:45,950
Okay, great. So if now...
1549
01:55:46,270 --> 01:55:52,090
If this is a change of character, then
where is our selling climax and
1550
01:55:52,090 --> 01:55:53,090
rally?
1551
01:55:53,890 --> 01:56:00,170
Okay. Well, so the selling climax should
be the lowest point of this. Okay.
1552
01:56:00,290 --> 01:56:04,570
Yeah. Automatic rally. And then the next
move to the downside is going to be
1553
01:56:04,570 --> 01:56:05,570
what?
1554
01:56:07,110 --> 01:56:08,029
Secondary test.
1555
01:56:08,030 --> 01:56:11,870
Secondary test. Could the secondary test
be a low, low?
1556
01:56:15,210 --> 01:56:19,330
Yes, it could be. Yes, it could be. It
could be a high low. It could be at the
1557
01:56:19,330 --> 01:56:20,750
same level. It could be a low low.
1558
01:56:21,330 --> 01:56:26,590
The key is if this is a low low, does
the price come back into the trading
1559
01:56:26,590 --> 01:56:32,630
or not? Because if it doesn't, then it's
not a stopping action. It's just a
1560
01:56:32,630 --> 01:56:33,950
continuation of the downtrend.
1561
01:56:34,270 --> 01:56:36,930
We could have a low low for the
secondary test.
1562
01:56:37,330 --> 01:56:38,330
Okay, great.
1563
01:56:38,350 --> 01:56:42,650
So this concludes Phase A. What's the
intention behind Phase A?
1564
01:56:45,160 --> 01:56:46,580
The change of character.
1565
01:56:46,880 --> 01:56:52,160
Yes, the change of character and to stop
the downtrend from going further down,
1566
01:56:52,220 --> 01:56:56,320
right? So stopping the trend and then
change the character with which the
1567
01:56:56,320 --> 01:57:02,260
unfolds. Okay, phase A. And then what
catches your eye next?
1568
01:57:04,200 --> 01:57:10,860
Well, the two weeks which are at the
bottom of the
1569
01:57:10,860 --> 01:57:11,860
range.
1570
01:57:12,520 --> 01:57:14,260
Yeah, the two ends are free.
1571
01:57:14,920 --> 01:57:20,920
Okay. So kind of like quite a few tests
here, right? So smaller test,
1572
01:57:21,320 --> 01:57:22,600
bigger test.
1573
01:57:23,260 --> 01:57:27,520
So if we would be talking about tests,
the magnitude of tests, probably we
1574
01:57:27,520 --> 01:57:32,460
say secondary test number one, that was
a local test, you know, to
1575
01:57:32,460 --> 01:57:35,980
sell in Climax.
1576
01:57:37,660 --> 01:57:40,380
Test to sell in Climax.
1577
01:57:41,020 --> 01:57:42,020
And then...
1578
01:57:42,300 --> 01:57:46,920
These two tests look like the same
magnitude, but they are dimension and
1579
01:57:47,180 --> 01:57:51,220
which basically tells us that two and
three
1580
01:57:51,220 --> 01:57:55,860
in the downward distance
1581
01:57:55,860 --> 01:58:00,620
that is dimension is a bullish sign.
1582
01:58:01,560 --> 01:58:07,680
And then look how high they are relative
to the selling climax and relative to.
1583
01:58:08,040 --> 01:58:14,260
anything in phase A. So that's an almost
like extra bullish sign that we have.
1584
01:58:14,400 --> 01:58:15,920
So that's all about bias.
1585
01:58:16,480 --> 01:58:17,780
Okay, so that's great.
1586
01:58:18,260 --> 01:58:23,340
But then how would we label those two
tests?
1587
01:58:25,100 --> 01:58:31,860
Yeah, well, I would have trouble
distinguishing which will be the test in
1588
01:58:31,860 --> 01:58:36,940
I think it should be the last one.
1589
01:58:38,879 --> 01:58:42,940
And what's the logic? I mean, this is
the correct answer, but what's the logic
1590
01:58:42,940 --> 01:58:43,940
behind it?
1591
01:58:43,960 --> 01:58:50,540
Well, if in any trading range there
should be like three major tests, and
1592
01:58:50,540 --> 01:58:56,240
we have no tests after the three, so the
last one has to be the test in C.
1593
01:58:56,560 --> 01:59:02,420
Yeah, and this is, again, third test is
1594
01:59:02,420 --> 01:59:05,020
going to be our phase C.
1595
01:59:05,470 --> 01:59:11,030
Second test is going to be phase B. So
if this is third test, this is from
1596
01:59:11,030 --> 01:59:12,370
the trend should start.
1597
01:59:13,010 --> 01:59:16,930
And even though there is already a
definition of the higher highs, higher
1598
01:59:17,150 --> 01:59:19,830
this is a conventional TA definition of
the uptrend.
1599
01:59:20,290 --> 01:59:24,130
You know, you could argue with me that
we're already in the uptrend here. Yes,
1600
01:59:24,170 --> 01:59:28,250
we are, but we're still in the
consolidate information. It's just
1601
01:59:29,030 --> 01:59:33,350
Then if this is a consolidation and it's
just upsloping information, then we
1602
01:59:33,350 --> 01:59:34,730
need to identify phase C.
1603
01:59:35,340 --> 01:59:40,140
So Philip is talking about the test.
This is great. Looks like phase C.
1604
01:59:41,240 --> 01:59:45,560
How else could we check and confirm that
this is phase C? Well, what happens
1605
01:59:45,560 --> 01:59:50,780
next? Where is the actual uptrend that
doesn't have the same type of the
1606
01:59:50,780 --> 01:59:53,940
reactions that's in the trading range?
It's in this area right here.
1607
01:59:54,180 --> 01:59:58,700
So here is our kind of like pure uptrend
that we were looking for.
1608
01:59:59,040 --> 02:00:03,700
So if this is an uptrend, then the low
that precedes that uptrend, it would be
1609
02:00:03,700 --> 02:00:04,568
phase C.
1610
02:00:04,570 --> 02:00:05,570
And it does.
1611
02:00:06,190 --> 02:00:11,450
So that's great. Another confirmation
that we could have is after phase C,
1612
02:00:11,590 --> 02:00:13,710
Philip, what should happen? Which phase?
1613
02:00:15,210 --> 02:00:16,089
Phase D.
1614
02:00:16,090 --> 02:00:20,390
Phase D. And phase D is going to be
associated with the major sign of
1615
02:00:20,390 --> 02:00:26,070
and with the major backing up action,
right? So we could say that in this
1616
02:00:26,090 --> 02:00:31,050
and I forgot who was asking me about
that backing up action, that could it
1617
02:00:31,150 --> 02:00:35,940
you know, much larger. Well, in this
case, If we would extend the resistance
1618
02:00:35,940 --> 02:00:42,140
level, you know, we could see how this
formation is resting on the resistance
1619
02:00:42,140 --> 02:00:45,380
level that has been projected, you know,
as an upsloping resistance.
1620
02:00:45,660 --> 02:00:49,200
So, yes, this is a major back -and -up
action that has its own trading range.
1621
02:00:49,760 --> 02:00:54,420
Now, let's quickly talk about
alternative labeling here.
1622
02:00:54,660 --> 02:00:59,620
You could label this as phase A, and
then I've seen that some of you said,
1623
02:00:59,700 --> 02:01:02,900
this is a test in phase B, and then this
is it.
1624
02:01:03,100 --> 02:01:09,780
phase C. Phase B is still the largest
among three, so that actually is good.
1625
02:01:09,980 --> 02:01:13,780
Then you have a sign of strength in D
and a backing up action.
1626
02:01:14,640 --> 02:01:19,640
Now, I actually, I'm totally okay with
this labeling. Why?
1627
02:01:19,860 --> 02:01:25,080
Because if you would be thinking that
this is an accumulation and your goal is
1628
02:01:25,080 --> 02:01:28,960
going to be to establish a high
probability trait, which is going to be
1629
02:01:28,960 --> 02:01:31,860
phase C, but in phase D, then you...
1630
02:01:32,080 --> 02:01:36,380
kind of opening the position at the same
time as the trader who would label it
1631
02:01:36,380 --> 02:01:41,700
as phase C and would try, you know, on
the elements of strength just to get in
1632
02:01:41,700 --> 02:01:43,480
in phase D on the way up.
1633
02:01:43,680 --> 02:01:46,600
So for trading purposes, it doesn't
really matter.
1634
02:01:47,380 --> 02:01:52,040
But I want you guys to kind of
understand and see that we have to have
1635
02:01:52,040 --> 02:01:55,020
test, second test, third test.
1636
02:01:56,120 --> 02:01:59,760
trend is going to start at the lows of
phase C and so on and so forth. So there
1637
02:01:59,760 --> 02:02:03,760
are quite a few things here that I would
be thinking that this labeling is
1638
02:02:03,760 --> 02:02:04,760
probably better.
1639
02:02:05,200 --> 02:02:08,940
All right, Philippe, what about the
second trading range?
1640
02:02:09,240 --> 02:02:14,680
What is the most obvious thing in this
consolidation?
1641
02:02:18,540 --> 02:02:23,100
So the first two points, which defines
the trading range, probably.
1642
02:02:23,680 --> 02:02:27,020
Okay, so I see it like as these two
points. What is the first point?
1643
02:02:28,060 --> 02:02:29,160
How would we label it?
1644
02:02:30,460 --> 02:02:31,460
Buying climax?
1645
02:02:31,660 --> 02:02:33,220
Okay, why is this a buying climax?
1646
02:02:35,920 --> 02:02:38,420
Well, because it's the end of the
uptrend.
1647
02:02:39,800 --> 02:02:46,200
But I do not see the... Yeah, and there
is a gap between the
1648
02:02:46,200 --> 02:02:50,910
last bullish take, so maybe that's...
That's one indicator.
1649
02:02:51,310 --> 02:02:51,929
Okay, so gap.
1650
02:02:51,930 --> 02:02:55,070
What else? What about the spread
increase, right?
1651
02:02:55,930 --> 02:03:00,510
Look at how the price moved prior to
that, and look at this bar right here.
1652
02:03:00,650 --> 02:03:03,890
Something is different, the way how it
moves now.
1653
02:03:04,570 --> 02:03:06,370
Faster. Much faster.
1654
02:03:06,650 --> 02:03:13,170
So momentum increase, velocity increase,
spread increase, gap to the
1655
02:03:13,170 --> 02:03:15,230
upside, and then it stops.
1656
02:03:15,470 --> 02:03:16,810
It's a stopping action.
1657
02:03:17,200 --> 02:03:21,360
So all of these elements are elements of
the climactic action, in this case, the
1658
02:03:21,360 --> 02:03:22,219
buying climate.
1659
02:03:22,220 --> 02:03:28,280
Okay, well, what's interesting is the
next reaction, right? So we see that
1660
02:03:28,280 --> 02:03:33,160
there's really not a lot of reaction.
That's number one. Secondly, there is
1661
02:03:33,160 --> 02:03:39,600
really, after the climactic run, there
is no trading range that would define
1662
02:03:39,600 --> 02:03:42,900
some kind of...
1663
02:03:44,500 --> 02:03:48,020
causality for the price to move down.
And that's why the move down is just so
1664
02:03:48,020 --> 02:03:51,060
small. This, by the way, is just a
preliminary supply.
1665
02:03:51,580 --> 02:03:53,020
You know, this range right here.
1666
02:03:53,680 --> 02:03:58,720
And it's in these cases where we could
say that because there is not a lot of
1667
02:03:58,720 --> 02:04:03,580
distributional activity here at the
buying climax itself, we could label
1668
02:04:03,580 --> 02:04:06,140
move to the downside as a shakeout
first.
1669
02:04:06,980 --> 02:04:11,080
Or we could label it, you know, so this
will be more alternative labeling.
1670
02:04:12,170 --> 02:04:16,010
And then a more conventional would be
just a regular automatic reaction.
1671
02:04:17,770 --> 02:04:20,370
So whatever you guys did, that's fine.
1672
02:04:20,710 --> 02:04:26,110
The only thing here is if you're
labeling this as a shakeout, a salient
1673
02:04:26,510 --> 02:04:29,730
then the next rally is going to be
labeled how, Philip?
1674
02:04:31,670 --> 02:04:33,210
Automatic reaction.
1675
02:04:33,910 --> 02:04:38,570
Rally, okay, and then secondary test.
And that would be your phase A.
1676
02:04:38,990 --> 02:04:41,090
Okay, in the...
1677
02:04:41,839 --> 02:04:48,200
alternatively in the more conventional
labeling right so you'll have bind
1678
02:04:48,200 --> 02:04:54,260
automatic reaction and then the
secondary test and that would conclude
1679
02:04:54,260 --> 02:04:58,860
phase a and that would be the only
difference I want you guys to see this.
1680
02:04:58,860 --> 02:05:02,500
studied this in the previous class. I
gave you the slides on the
1681
02:05:02,940 --> 02:05:06,080
Some of the reaccumulations are going to
have the structure where they're going
1682
02:05:06,080 --> 02:05:09,900
to have a distribution range, and we've
seen this in the previous slide. Then
1683
02:05:09,900 --> 02:05:14,740
the price goes down, so you're going to
have a selling climax, and then your
1684
02:05:14,740 --> 02:05:16,400
labeling is going to be the same.
1685
02:05:18,720 --> 02:05:23,480
And then in another formation where you
have a buying climax, and then you have
1686
02:05:23,480 --> 02:05:24,600
just a sharp reaction,
1687
02:05:25,390 --> 02:05:30,030
that defines the boundary of the range,
then you could, in some instances, say
1688
02:05:30,030 --> 02:05:35,390
that this is a shakeout, and then you
kind of start it over as just a regular
1689
02:05:35,390 --> 02:05:39,390
accumulation. So this will be an
alternative labeling.
1690
02:05:41,330 --> 02:05:47,990
And YN Climax automatic reaction
secondary test, this would be
1691
02:05:47,990 --> 02:05:48,990
conventional.
1692
02:05:51,210 --> 02:05:53,170
Please take notes of this.
1693
02:05:53,900 --> 02:05:55,920
because this question repeats itself.
1694
02:05:56,260 --> 02:06:00,460
All right. Well, Filip, how would you
like to label it? Okay, buying Climax.
1695
02:06:01,900 --> 02:06:06,840
Then let's just go with the
conventional. Automatic reaction,
1696
02:06:07,200 --> 02:06:08,200
phase A.
1697
02:06:08,860 --> 02:06:12,680
Okay, so then what is the next thing
that catches your eye?
1698
02:06:15,000 --> 02:06:20,040
Yeah, and now I'm not sure because if
the secondary test is the test to the
1699
02:06:20,040 --> 02:06:22,220
upside, I'm not sure what's the...
1700
02:06:24,110 --> 02:06:28,530
decline to the support level. But what
catches your eye?
1701
02:06:29,310 --> 02:06:34,310
Instead of thinking what comes next and
the problem associated with the labeling
1702
02:06:34,310 --> 02:06:40,830
there, what is catching your eye? And by
that I mean, are there any
1703
02:06:40,830 --> 02:06:45,750
extremes or extreme behaviors that you
see in the trading range that catches
1704
02:06:45,750 --> 02:06:46,750
your eye?
1705
02:06:46,770 --> 02:06:50,690
Yeah, the nice rally from the top to the
bottom of the support.
1706
02:06:51,340 --> 02:06:53,920
Okay, let's come back to this later on.
What else?
1707
02:06:56,500 --> 02:06:58,040
Yeah, and then this rally.
1708
02:06:58,660 --> 02:07:05,480
I thought the decline from the secondary
tests to the
1709
02:07:05,480 --> 02:07:06,520
bottom of the range.
1710
02:07:07,680 --> 02:07:08,680
Yeah, this one.
1711
02:07:10,180 --> 02:07:11,400
Okay, what about it?
1712
02:07:13,500 --> 02:07:19,700
That's the first thing. And yeah, then
the last time that happened again.
1713
02:07:20,730 --> 02:07:21,730
Okay.
1714
02:07:22,130 --> 02:07:27,030
Well, when I ask you guys this question,
what catches your eye, obviously I'm
1715
02:07:27,030 --> 02:07:33,450
trying for you to identify either
extreme behavior or just extremes,
1716
02:07:33,450 --> 02:07:34,450
what are the extremes?
1717
02:07:34,490 --> 02:07:40,290
The extremes are going to be all this,
1718
02:07:40,470 --> 02:07:42,990
right? So these are the extremes.
1719
02:07:43,650 --> 02:07:50,460
So like, for instance, this extreme
right here, this rally off the low.
1720
02:07:50,860 --> 02:07:52,600
What do you think this rally is?
1721
02:08:00,080 --> 02:08:01,080
I'm not sure.
1722
02:08:02,080 --> 02:08:07,600
Okay, that's fine. So we see what
happens after this rally.
1723
02:08:07,840 --> 02:08:12,160
We have some kind of backing up action
and then a continuation.
1724
02:08:13,470 --> 02:08:18,870
to the upside, right? So we are in the
uptrend environment right here. So we
1725
02:08:18,870 --> 02:08:22,970
leaving the trading range and then we
are going into the uptrend. There is
1726
02:08:22,970 --> 02:08:27,390
another formation here. But what phase
would we be doing this and what kind of
1727
02:08:27,390 --> 02:08:31,250
Wyckoff events would conclude the
trading range in this manner?
1728
02:08:32,330 --> 02:08:33,870
It's probably spring.
1729
02:08:35,150 --> 02:08:36,150
Where?
1730
02:08:37,030 --> 02:08:40,730
From the beginning of the uptrend.
1731
02:08:41,820 --> 02:08:43,180
Give me a timestamp.
1732
02:08:43,980 --> 02:08:44,980
September.
1733
02:08:45,620 --> 02:08:47,080
Okay, so this one right here?
1734
02:08:47,700 --> 02:08:52,020
Yeah. Okay, yeah. So at the low, we
probably have a spring. Why is this a
1735
02:08:52,020 --> 02:08:53,020
spring, by the way?
1736
02:08:55,040 --> 02:09:01,280
Because it's from the support level, and
it goes right through
1737
02:09:01,280 --> 02:09:06,360
the whole trading range and with
increasing speed.
1738
02:09:06,620 --> 02:09:07,840
Okay, but then...
1739
02:09:08,160 --> 02:09:14,300
Also, a spring is going to be a lower
low, right? A spring is going to be a
1740
02:09:14,300 --> 02:09:20,620
temporary either attempt or
1741
02:09:20,620 --> 02:09:27,060
commitment below the support.
1742
02:09:28,840 --> 02:09:30,640
That's how we would look at the spring.
1743
02:09:30,880 --> 02:09:34,240
And that's the definition of spring. So
look at this, guys.
1744
02:09:34,670 --> 02:09:39,110
how this bar is trying to commit to the
downside on the intraday basis, does not
1745
02:09:39,110 --> 02:09:44,890
commit, only has a tail here on the
daily, and then returns quickly back
1746
02:09:44,890 --> 02:09:45,890
the trading range.
1747
02:09:46,610 --> 02:09:50,090
So it's an upthrust, only reversed, in
reverse.
1748
02:09:50,650 --> 02:09:53,190
And then it has some kind of local path
here.
1749
02:09:53,390 --> 02:09:58,630
Okay, great. So which phase is going to
have a sprint in it?
1750
02:10:01,770 --> 02:10:03,410
The beginning, it's...
1751
02:10:03,660 --> 02:10:04,559
In phase C?
1752
02:10:04,560 --> 02:10:10,060
Phase C, absolutely. Okay, so if this is
phase C, then everything in between
1753
02:10:10,060 --> 02:10:12,820
phase A and phase C is phase B.
1754
02:10:13,020 --> 02:10:17,980
We want to check that phase B is the
largest among the three.
1755
02:10:19,300 --> 02:10:23,920
This is where the cause is being
created. This is where supply and demand
1756
02:10:23,920 --> 02:10:30,060
interacting with the very, very volatile
events and behaviors.
1757
02:10:31,060 --> 02:10:33,160
Okay, let's come back to...
1758
02:10:33,550 --> 02:10:38,570
Phase B really quickly. The test at the
support level, how would we label that
1759
02:10:38,570 --> 02:10:39,570
in Phase B?
1760
02:10:46,110 --> 02:10:51,230
Secondary test? Secondary test, yeah.
And then the high that overcomes
1761
02:10:51,230 --> 02:10:52,710
resistance points in Phase B.
1762
02:10:53,210 --> 02:10:54,330
Sign of strength.
1763
02:10:55,270 --> 02:10:58,490
An upthrust action. Upthrust action.
1764
02:10:58,870 --> 02:11:02,050
As a minor sign of strength.
1765
02:11:03,340 --> 02:11:08,060
And the reason why we're saying a minus
sign of strength is because the price
1766
02:11:08,060 --> 02:11:10,260
commits significantly to the upside.
1767
02:11:10,520 --> 02:11:13,240
It doesn't just commit a little bit.
1768
02:11:14,260 --> 02:11:19,280
It just commits quite significantly.
Look at three closes above, and then the
1769
02:11:19,280 --> 02:11:23,820
price spends so much time above here
before it actually commits below.
1770
02:11:24,960 --> 02:11:31,130
So that's why a minus sign of strength.
Not every rally in phase B are going to
1771
02:11:31,130 --> 02:11:35,690
have characteristics of a minus sign of
strength. This is going to be more of
1772
02:11:35,690 --> 02:11:40,270
the exception rather than a norm.
1773
02:11:41,150 --> 02:11:47,990
Okay, great. Can I just quickly ask you,
if I have a buying climax,
1774
02:11:48,030 --> 02:11:53,630
which is tested by the secondary test,
the first one, so the secondary test is
1775
02:11:53,630 --> 02:11:55,870
to the upside, can I...
1776
02:11:56,120 --> 02:12:01,640
also mark a secondary test as something
that tests the support level, like in
1777
02:12:01,640 --> 02:12:02,640
the different directions.
1778
02:12:02,860 --> 02:12:09,660
Yeah, and that was kind of like my
biggest issue with the labeling
1779
02:12:09,660 --> 02:12:16,300
that I've seen in the reaccumulation,
where basically this sequence
1780
02:12:16,300 --> 02:12:18,300
does not make a lot of sense to me.
1781
02:12:18,780 --> 02:12:20,560
I would rather...
1782
02:12:21,700 --> 02:12:27,940
sequence this in a different way. I
would rather say bind climax and then
1783
02:12:27,940 --> 02:12:32,660
out type of action and then just say
automatic rally and then secondary
1784
02:12:33,200 --> 02:12:38,480
But sometimes it doesn't work like this.
There is not really enough room for
1785
02:12:38,480 --> 02:12:44,160
phase B and then we could see that from
the behaviors, what is this rally? It is
1786
02:12:44,160 --> 02:12:47,760
a test. It is a test of the climactic
action right there.
1787
02:12:48,200 --> 02:12:53,620
I saw that in the conventional way, I
started thinking that. Okay, so pass at
1788
02:12:53,620 --> 02:12:55,860
the resistance, pass at the support.
1789
02:12:56,120 --> 02:12:58,040
And phase B is going to be like that.
1790
02:12:58,280 --> 02:13:02,400
We also could label even this upthrust
right here as a secondary test.
1791
02:13:02,840 --> 02:13:09,360
Actually, this whole upthrust action in
phase B has been added,
1792
02:13:09,480 --> 02:13:10,760
you know, in this course.
1793
02:13:11,420 --> 02:13:13,160
We have never used it before.
1794
02:13:13,500 --> 02:13:17,920
You know, upthrust always has been
associated with three things.
1795
02:13:18,780 --> 02:13:21,640
usually has been associated with the
distribution.
1796
02:13:22,160 --> 02:13:26,620
You know, and Hank kind of like, you
know, was always on me about this, you
1797
02:13:26,620 --> 02:13:28,520
know, like adding something new to the
methodology.
1798
02:13:28,800 --> 02:13:30,640
But it made sense to me to do that.
1799
02:13:30,900 --> 02:13:36,260
So upthrust was associated first with
the upthrust in phase B of the
1800
02:13:36,260 --> 02:13:41,000
distribution and then upthrust after
distribution in phase C.
1801
02:13:41,380 --> 02:13:46,080
It also was associated with the upward
thrust.
1802
02:13:48,970 --> 02:13:55,570
in the uptrend. And we would use this as
a momentum tool, where the momentum
1803
02:13:55,570 --> 02:13:58,010
increases or decreases on the rally.
1804
02:13:59,330 --> 02:14:05,590
So when I realized that this upthrust
right here has the same type of
1805
02:14:05,590 --> 02:14:12,450
action as just the regular upthrust and
distribution, it made sense to
1806
02:14:12,450 --> 02:14:16,810
label this as an upthrust action rather
than an upthrust itself.
1807
02:14:17,370 --> 02:14:19,830
I'm going to have a slide for you on
this.
1808
02:14:20,390 --> 02:14:27,390
I think David Wise, Gary Follett, Gary
Dayton are much better with
1809
02:14:27,390 --> 02:14:30,970
identification of those upfront actions
everywhere.
1810
02:14:31,670 --> 02:14:35,570
And sometimes when I listen to them or I
conduct sessions with them together.
1811
02:14:36,440 --> 02:14:39,220
It just kind of amazes me how they see
this.
1812
02:14:39,540 --> 02:14:43,980
So there is a lot of value in that type
of work and that type of knowledge, and
1813
02:14:43,980 --> 02:14:47,480
I would highly recommend for those of
you who are not familiar with the names
1814
02:14:47,480 --> 02:14:49,360
that I've pronounced, go check them out.
1815
02:14:50,740 --> 02:14:53,720
I'm actually extremely open to...
1816
02:14:54,699 --> 02:14:58,800
cooperation with all of the Wyckoff
teachers. You know, for those of you
1817
02:14:58,800 --> 02:15:03,000
who are not new, you guys know that I've
conducted so many classes with all
1818
02:15:03,000 --> 02:15:08,200
three of them, you know, and obviously I
like to teach with other teachers, with
1819
02:15:08,200 --> 02:15:08,999
other people.
1820
02:15:09,000 --> 02:15:14,700
All right. So let's conclude this really
quick. So after phase C, the rally up
1821
02:15:14,700 --> 02:15:15,700
is going to be what?
1822
02:15:17,720 --> 02:15:18,720
Spring.
1823
02:15:20,909 --> 02:15:25,210
With Spring, Spring is always going to
be a lower load to support.
1824
02:15:25,510 --> 02:15:26,910
It's not going to be a rally.
1825
02:15:27,130 --> 02:15:31,170
And by the way, I've seen, guys, that
some of you would put like Phase C
1826
02:15:31,170 --> 02:15:34,050
somewhere here or like a part of the
rally.
1827
02:15:34,390 --> 02:15:40,910
No, Phase C intention. What is the
intention, Philip, for Phase C?
1828
02:15:44,270 --> 02:15:48,590
It establishes the new trend and changes
the character.
1829
02:15:49,280 --> 02:15:50,760
It's the final test.
1830
02:15:52,340 --> 02:15:58,420
Final test of supply at the support
level.
1831
02:15:59,340 --> 02:16:01,520
That's what Phase C is all about.
1832
02:16:01,880 --> 02:16:03,980
So it cannot be a rally.
1833
02:16:05,200 --> 02:16:07,000
Phase C is basically the test.
1834
02:16:07,420 --> 02:16:12,280
Phase C is not the rally. So for those
of you who are kind of mistakenly
1835
02:16:12,280 --> 02:16:16,460
thinking that Phase C could be a part of
the rally, no.
1836
02:16:17,250 --> 02:16:22,170
Phase C is the test, and the test only
comes in the accumulation as a reaction
1837
02:16:22,170 --> 02:16:23,710
and not as a rally.
1838
02:16:23,990 --> 02:16:29,770
Okay, so we concluded the sprint. What
is the rally that comes after the sprint
1839
02:16:29,770 --> 02:16:30,770
in Phase D?
1840
02:16:34,389 --> 02:16:36,270
Maybe an upthrust action?
1841
02:16:37,150 --> 02:16:38,250
I'm not sure.
1842
02:16:38,730 --> 02:16:42,530
Sorry. Quick help here. Write it down,
guys. What is this rally?
1843
02:16:43,230 --> 02:16:47,090
After phase C and phase D, a sign of
strength. That's correct.
1844
02:16:47,410 --> 02:16:53,790
A major sign of strength. Okay, and then
the reaction after that is going to be
1845
02:16:53,790 --> 02:16:56,590
a backing up action. Correct as well.
1846
02:16:56,990 --> 02:17:02,950
So that would conclude phase D, but we
have a much
1847
02:17:02,950 --> 02:17:09,750
bigger formation here. So look at how
one formation is on the top of
1848
02:17:09,750 --> 02:17:12,010
another. So we are seeing here.
1849
02:17:12,650 --> 02:17:17,070
has sell in climax as a stop in action
in their original range.
1850
02:17:17,370 --> 02:17:22,790
Then we see a buy in climax as a stop in
action for the reaccumulation.
1851
02:17:27,930 --> 02:17:32,690
And then we're seeing another formation,
which is reaccumulation as well, and it
1852
02:17:32,690 --> 02:17:38,930
starts also with the buy in climax, but
on the higher
1853
02:17:40,360 --> 02:17:44,740
magnitude level, that was a major sign
of strength that we've just discussed.
1854
02:17:45,180 --> 02:17:52,040
So this whole formation here is just
basically a major backing
1855
02:17:52,040 --> 02:17:58,719
up action that starts with the buying
climax, with the stopping action,
1856
02:17:58,940 --> 02:18:01,299
and then what would be the first
reaction?
1857
02:18:01,520 --> 02:18:02,760
How would we label this, Philip?
1858
02:18:04,080 --> 02:18:05,139
Automatic reaction.
1859
02:18:05,500 --> 02:18:08,000
Automatic reaction. Okay, the next
rally.
1860
02:18:09,610 --> 02:18:13,129
Secondary test. Secondary test concludes
our phase A.
1861
02:18:13,950 --> 02:18:14,950
Okay.
1862
02:18:15,670 --> 02:18:21,410
Look at the character with which this
rally and this reaction moves.
1863
02:18:22,170 --> 02:18:27,389
How would we label those? Is this the
best rally so far in this smaller
1864
02:18:27,389 --> 02:18:28,389
range?
1865
02:18:28,790 --> 02:18:29,950
Yeah, it is.
1866
02:18:30,290 --> 02:18:34,809
So when would we experience the best
rally in the trading range that commits
1867
02:18:34,809 --> 02:18:36,510
above the resistance?
1868
02:18:37,330 --> 02:18:43,190
sustains that progress, stays above, and
then comes exactly to the support level
1869
02:18:43,190 --> 02:18:45,570
which acted before as a resistance.
1870
02:18:48,809 --> 02:18:51,170
I'm sorry, I'm not sure what you're
asking.
1871
02:18:51,670 --> 02:18:56,209
Oh, okay. So look at how the spread here
on this rally, right, increasing.
1872
02:18:57,129 --> 02:18:59,870
So it's much better than what we've seen
before.
1873
02:19:00,250 --> 02:19:04,129
Here, here, right? So this is the best
rally.
1874
02:19:05,480 --> 02:19:06,500
in the trading range.
1875
02:19:06,799 --> 02:19:10,920
We know that the best rally in the
trading range probably is going to be
1876
02:19:10,920 --> 02:19:14,040
associated with the change of character,
especially on the way out.
1877
02:19:14,299 --> 02:19:19,660
And a change of character on the way out
is going to happen in which phase? In
1878
02:19:19,660 --> 02:19:23,379
phase D. In phase D. And phase D is
going to be associated with which wagon
1879
02:19:23,379 --> 02:19:24,379
point?
1880
02:19:26,010 --> 02:19:31,809
Sign of strength, backing up action.
Yes, those are the main... Last point.
1881
02:19:32,010 --> 02:19:35,549
last point of support and also sign of
strength bar.
1882
02:19:36,049 --> 02:19:38,709
Okay, well, we are not concerned about
this, too.
1883
02:19:38,969 --> 02:19:43,410
But we definitely want to identify a
sign of strength rally and the backing
1884
02:19:43,410 --> 02:19:46,629
action. So does it look like a sign of
strength rally?
1885
02:19:48,070 --> 02:19:51,030
Yes, definitely. Yeah, the character...
1886
02:19:51,530 --> 02:19:56,830
with which the sign of strength really
occurs, is going to be such where the
1887
02:19:56,830 --> 02:20:00,170
spread to the upside is increasing, the
volume signature is increasing.
1888
02:20:00,490 --> 02:20:06,070
And by the definition of the sign of
strength, we need a commitment staying
1889
02:20:06,070 --> 02:20:09,610
above and then backing up exactly to the
level of the support.
1890
02:20:09,830 --> 02:20:13,470
So that's exactly what's happening right
there.
1891
02:20:15,510 --> 02:20:20,030
So this looks like a sign of strength
and a backing up action.
1892
02:20:20,480 --> 02:20:23,680
If this is a sign of strength in the
back -and -up action, then the previous
1893
02:20:23,680 --> 02:20:24,680
is what?
1894
02:20:25,580 --> 02:20:27,920
It's the test in C.
1895
02:20:28,580 --> 02:20:30,100
Excellent. C.
1896
02:20:30,400 --> 02:20:34,120
Then everything in between A and C is B.
1897
02:20:35,600 --> 02:20:39,900
And then sign of strength rally in the
back -and -up action is our phase B.
1898
02:20:41,020 --> 02:20:42,020
Okay.
1899
02:20:43,760 --> 02:20:48,460
And here it is. Here is our labeling for
all three trading ranges with the
1900
02:20:48,460 --> 02:20:49,460
changes of character.
1901
02:20:52,530 --> 02:20:55,470
with all of these, you know, points that
we've discussed.
1902
02:20:56,590 --> 02:21:03,530
Philip, okay, so the main task right now
for you individually, personally, is
1903
02:21:03,530 --> 02:21:08,490
to remember the sequence of all of the Y
-configurants that happen in the
1904
02:21:08,490 --> 02:21:09,489
trading.
1905
02:21:09,490 --> 02:21:15,010
So I want, this is kind of like a very
individualized task for you right now.
1906
02:21:15,010 --> 02:21:18,410
I'll start with that and then go to the
homework, next homework.
1907
02:21:18,630 --> 02:21:19,419
All right?
1908
02:21:19,420 --> 02:21:21,200
Okay, thank you. Sounds great.
1909
02:21:23,100 --> 02:21:24,920
All right, good progress.
1910
02:21:25,480 --> 02:21:29,320
So let me see what kind of questions we
have on this slide.
1911
02:21:33,220 --> 02:21:37,340
Is there any difference between momentum
and velocity from lean?
1912
02:21:38,020 --> 02:21:43,620
Yeah, there is definitely a big
difference between momentum and
1913
02:21:43,620 --> 02:21:46,720
is not something that I want to go in
right now.
1914
02:21:49,320 --> 02:21:55,180
This is more of the advanced studies,
and I would prefer to talk about this in
1915
02:21:55,180 --> 02:22:01,040
practicum. But, you know, at the
minimum, Lim, you could just even
1916
02:22:01,040 --> 02:22:06,220
Google definitions on the momentum and
velocity, and it doesn't matter that,
1917
02:22:06,220 --> 02:22:09,680
know, you're going to get them from,
like, physics, but there is a difference
1918
02:22:09,680 --> 02:22:10,680
there.
1919
02:22:11,540 --> 02:22:17,120
But we'll talk about this in a slightly
different context later on.
1920
02:22:17,870 --> 02:22:19,470
It's just a big discussion there.
1921
02:22:20,750 --> 02:22:21,750
Okay.
1922
02:22:22,910 --> 02:22:27,550
How can you tell the difference of the
first accumulation and the second? And
1923
02:22:27,550 --> 02:22:28,950
what would be that difference, Joe?
1924
02:22:29,530 --> 02:22:33,850
You know, what do you mean by the
difference when you might be looking for
1925
02:22:33,850 --> 02:22:34,890
back -and -up action? Okay.
1926
02:22:37,450 --> 02:22:43,430
So I think that the biggest problem here
with the back -and -up action is
1927
02:22:43,430 --> 02:22:46,670
actually somewhat of a...
1928
02:22:46,990 --> 02:22:49,270
not very distinct sign of strength.
1929
02:22:50,410 --> 02:22:55,350
Because when we look at this area right
here, and especially taking the sale, we
1930
02:22:55,350 --> 02:22:58,170
might say that there is not really a
commitment to the upside here.
1931
02:22:58,370 --> 02:23:02,030
But remember, this already acts as a
minus sign of strength.
1932
02:23:02,530 --> 02:23:06,890
So if the price is going to come to the
same level, that's at the minimum
1933
02:23:06,890 --> 02:23:08,210
already a minus sign of strength.
1934
02:23:08,590 --> 02:23:12,110
But we have a much better commitment if
the...
1935
02:23:12,330 --> 02:23:17,090
highest commitment was here, then the
highest commitment for the second rally
1936
02:23:17,090 --> 02:23:24,030
higher. It just definitely shows that
there is not much better commitment,
1937
02:23:24,170 --> 02:23:25,990
but a better commitment to the upside.
1938
02:23:26,610 --> 02:23:31,270
Now, the next problem that we have here
is the backing up action itself.
1939
02:23:31,590 --> 02:23:37,350
The backing up action actually looks
very normal. There is no increased
1940
02:23:37,350 --> 02:23:41,850
spread to the downside that we see here,
which is great.
1941
02:23:42,300 --> 02:23:44,660
That tells us that supply is going
lower.
1942
02:23:45,780 --> 02:23:50,620
It actually comes to the level of the
buying climax and then stops there and
1943
02:23:50,620 --> 02:23:53,380
acts as a spring, comes back into the
trading range.
1944
02:23:53,620 --> 02:23:58,540
So everything looks normal. And I would
be actually initiating my position right
1945
02:23:58,540 --> 02:23:59,940
on this bar right here.
1946
02:24:00,360 --> 02:24:07,260
This would be my last point, my next to
last point of entry here just based
1947
02:24:07,260 --> 02:24:10,000
on this. The first one is going to be
spring itself.
1948
02:24:11,290 --> 02:24:18,090
reversal off the spring, sign of
strength bar, and then you have to stop
1949
02:24:18,090 --> 02:24:19,650
of the resistance level.
1950
02:24:19,890 --> 02:24:25,110
And then the next one is going to be, so
this is one, two, three, point number
1951
02:24:25,110 --> 02:24:30,190
four, right of the backing up action. So
I would be already fully committed into
1952
02:24:30,190 --> 02:24:36,030
this position based on how the price has
developed at this point of time. And it
1953
02:24:36,030 --> 02:24:38,970
still would be profitable, right? So
we're profitable right away.
1954
02:24:39,500 --> 02:24:42,240
We are profitable throughout this whole
formation.
1955
02:24:42,740 --> 02:24:49,460
Now, what happens here is here we are
losing the momentum, and that suggests
1956
02:24:49,460 --> 02:24:50,480
some kind of reaction.
1957
02:24:50,720 --> 02:24:56,220
The reaction is actually somewhat
healthy. It doesn't prolong for a long
1958
02:24:56,380 --> 02:24:58,700
It doesn't have a big difference to the
downside.
1959
02:24:59,060 --> 02:25:04,280
The spread does not increase
significantly, but it's still somewhat
1960
02:25:04,280 --> 02:25:09,070
than, let's say, this action right here.
It has some gaps to the downside,
1961
02:25:09,270 --> 02:25:10,410
actually two of them.
1962
02:25:10,910 --> 02:25:16,030
It has some kind of volatility
associated with this. So that requires
1963
02:25:16,030 --> 02:25:20,350
test. So at this point of time, you know
that there's going to be a test of this
1964
02:25:20,350 --> 02:25:25,670
area. And you might even just say, if
there's going to be a test, then if I
1965
02:25:25,670 --> 02:25:27,990
decide to enter somewhere here, it's
going to be inefficient.
1966
02:25:28,550 --> 02:25:29,750
Why it's going to be inefficient?
1967
02:25:30,090 --> 02:25:34,850
Well, just because if the test requires
time,
1968
02:25:36,890 --> 02:25:38,830
then it's going to take some time.
1969
02:25:39,850 --> 02:25:43,310
So therefore, we are waiting for the
test of the test.
1970
02:25:43,530 --> 02:25:45,490
And it comes on the next reaction.
1971
02:25:45,710 --> 02:25:49,950
We see how different this reaction from
the previous one. That's going to be our
1972
02:25:49,950 --> 02:25:52,130
point of entry number five.
1973
02:25:52,910 --> 02:25:58,790
And then from here, I mean, I've talked
to Philip and we identified that the
1974
02:25:58,790 --> 02:26:01,470
character of this rally is different
than anything before.
1975
02:26:02,160 --> 02:26:06,620
in this range so therefore a sign of
strength and then the back nap action is
1976
02:26:06,620 --> 02:26:11,560
kind of shallow so again you could add
to the position here you could also add
1977
02:26:11,560 --> 02:26:17,880
on this bar so that's number five that's
number six number four three
1978
02:26:17,880 --> 02:26:24,880
two one and then after that you're going
to be thinking that either this or
1979
02:26:24,880 --> 02:26:31,400
this is going to be your uh seven and
eight So there are quite a few points of
1980
02:26:31,400 --> 02:26:35,040
entry. And by the way, for those of you
who are campaign investors, and by the
1981
02:26:35,040 --> 02:26:40,120
way, we have quite a lot in this class.
So I will be pointing those things out a
1982
02:26:40,120 --> 02:26:43,680
lot, you know, campaign points of entry.
1983
02:26:44,400 --> 02:26:50,280
Look at this. In the original
accumulation, you want to enter on the,
1984
02:26:50,280 --> 02:26:55,620
this is a high or low, you know, this is
your, these are your points of entry
1985
02:26:55,620 --> 02:26:56,620
here.
1986
02:26:57,040 --> 02:26:58,080
And then this one.
1987
02:26:58,670 --> 02:27:05,550
So this is going to be a minus four,
minus three, minus two,
1988
02:27:05,690 --> 02:27:06,690
minus one.
1989
02:27:07,130 --> 02:27:10,910
So those are the points of entry that
you're going to have in each of the
1990
02:27:10,910 --> 02:27:11,649
trading ranges.
1991
02:27:11,650 --> 02:27:17,550
And please note, for the long -term
investor, we are campaigning
1992
02:27:17,550 --> 02:27:21,050
from one trading range to another.
1993
02:27:21,510 --> 02:27:23,510
Our goal is to...
1994
02:27:25,330 --> 02:27:28,790
Establish the position at the correct
timing with the correct buys.
1995
02:27:29,090 --> 02:27:33,830
So here is our regional positions that
we're opening. And then open them at the
1996
02:27:33,830 --> 02:27:40,630
high price level at the point where
phase C is happening and
1997
02:27:40,630 --> 02:27:41,630
nothing else.
1998
02:27:43,710 --> 02:27:49,350
And then in the next formation, we're
doing the same. Phase C and then all of
1999
02:27:49,350 --> 02:27:50,990
the other entries in phase D.
2000
02:27:52,040 --> 02:27:58,280
So every time you scale in and you
increase your position size, you are
2001
02:27:58,280 --> 02:28:02,880
this at the higher level and you're
doing this in such a way that defines
2002
02:28:02,880 --> 02:28:06,100
timing of when the price leaves the
trading range.
2003
02:28:06,780 --> 02:28:10,700
I mean, obviously, maybe it was an
exception of this point of entry.
2004
02:28:12,400 --> 02:28:17,080
The goal for the long -term investor and
the way how I view my long -term
2005
02:28:17,080 --> 02:28:18,080
campaigns.
2006
02:28:18,370 --> 02:28:25,010
is to be in the correct stock that is
going to have a very prolonged
2007
02:28:25,010 --> 02:28:30,930
cyclical move to the upside where I
could hold on to this position beyond
2008
02:28:30,930 --> 02:28:33,370
gear. That's number one. That's number
one goal.
2009
02:28:33,650 --> 02:28:39,750
My second goal is to stay in this
position until it's done, until this
2010
02:28:39,750 --> 02:28:44,850
run is done. So we have to have a
significant change of character to
2011
02:28:44,850 --> 02:28:45,850
ending of the campaign.
2012
02:28:46,360 --> 02:28:50,320
There are certain characteristics to the
ending of the campaign that we would be
2013
02:28:50,320 --> 02:28:52,580
thinking about.
2014
02:28:54,320 --> 02:29:01,200
And also, when I'm in the correct
position as a long
2015
02:29:01,200 --> 02:29:07,060
-term campaign position, I want to be
aggressive with my next points of
2016
02:29:07,060 --> 02:29:08,920
because the trend is defined.
2017
02:29:09,340 --> 02:29:13,200
And now I just know that it's all up to
me to define the correct timing.
2018
02:29:14,070 --> 02:29:19,810
on the next stepping stone pre
-accumulation range and to define the
2019
02:29:19,810 --> 02:29:25,250
entry and to scale in more to create a
substantial position.
2020
02:29:25,570 --> 02:29:29,530
So when it comes to the conclusion on
the climactic run, which is going to be
2021
02:29:29,530 --> 02:29:35,390
the terminal climactic run, I have a lot
of money there built in as unrealized
2022
02:29:35,390 --> 02:29:40,250
gain and I'm going to take the profits
at that point of time or scale out.
2023
02:29:40,690 --> 02:29:44,280
So when you're right, Be a pig.
2024
02:29:45,120 --> 02:29:46,140
Don't be scared.
2025
02:29:47,040 --> 02:29:54,000
And, you know, I'm saying be a pig.
Obviously, I'm referring to George Soros
2026
02:29:54,000 --> 02:29:59,460
specifically his trade in 1992 when he
shorted British pound.
2027
02:30:00,060 --> 02:30:04,480
So I was reading about this trade and
you can get his book and he talks about
2028
02:30:04,480 --> 02:30:05,480
this trade.
2029
02:30:06,060 --> 02:30:12,120
He exposed his fund to 4 % of risk on
this trade.
2030
02:30:13,290 --> 02:30:18,570
So, and, you know, working with
institutional clients, you know, I might
2031
02:30:18,570 --> 02:30:23,210
that 4%, you know, for them could be a
substantial risk.
2032
02:30:23,630 --> 02:30:28,950
But your source is not a very
necessarily kind of like your typical
2033
02:30:28,950 --> 02:30:30,030
institutional type.
2034
02:30:30,990 --> 02:30:35,730
Here's what I call, and this is very
close to me because I trade the same
2035
02:30:35,890 --> 02:30:39,770
more of the concentrated portfolio
investor.
2036
02:30:40,590 --> 02:30:45,070
Whenever he sees opportunity and it
works in his favor, he could add to the
2037
02:30:45,070 --> 02:30:48,890
position and go beyond your regular risk
parameters.
2038
02:30:49,310 --> 02:30:51,270
And that's what I'm suggesting here.
2039
02:30:52,010 --> 02:30:58,230
You know, if you're at the advanced
level and you feel comfortable with all
2040
02:30:58,230 --> 02:31:03,150
these concepts and with trading in
general, you could be aggressive at
2041
02:31:03,150 --> 02:31:06,730
spots with the specific stock, with the
specific pattern.
2042
02:31:07,030 --> 02:31:08,830
This is a pattern right here.
2043
02:31:09,210 --> 02:31:12,930
that could have that type of aggression
for us that we could call.
2044
02:31:13,270 --> 02:31:14,330
All right, great.
2045
02:31:14,570 --> 02:31:16,330
We'll talk more about this later.
2046
02:31:17,370 --> 02:31:23,370
As you guys could see, there are quite a
few, you know, things that are still
2047
02:31:23,370 --> 02:31:24,370
ahead.
2048
02:31:30,230 --> 02:31:33,770
Okay. Are cerebral reaccumulation close
to...
2049
02:31:34,030 --> 02:31:39,190
Each other sign of very strong bullish
move yet to come. All of these
2050
02:31:39,190 --> 02:31:45,690
reaccumulations are more stacked on top
of each other with bias towards upside
2051
02:31:45,690 --> 02:31:47,870
from knowledge.
2052
02:31:48,470 --> 02:31:51,530
Okay, so I might be misinterpreting the
name again.
2053
02:31:53,290 --> 02:31:54,290
Mispronouncing.
2054
02:31:55,050 --> 02:31:58,550
There is a logic in what is being said
here.
2055
02:31:59,950 --> 02:32:03,450
It's slightly different as to how I
would explain this.
2056
02:32:03,950 --> 02:32:10,890
Our first accumulation range is not
necessarily a part of the formation that
2057
02:32:10,890 --> 02:32:17,370
comes later on, but it has a very
logical continuation of
2058
02:32:17,370 --> 02:32:22,610
why we have so many trading ranges after
the original accumulation.
2059
02:32:23,070 --> 02:32:24,810
So think about the original
accumulation.
2060
02:32:25,270 --> 02:32:26,890
What is happening here?
2061
02:32:27,410 --> 02:32:28,710
Why is this?
2062
02:32:29,020 --> 02:32:33,940
accumulation, why is this range has this
type of structure where we're seeing
2063
02:32:33,940 --> 02:32:35,340
higher highs and higher lows?
2064
02:32:35,960 --> 02:32:37,200
What do you guys think?
2065
02:32:38,420 --> 02:32:39,840
What does this represent?
2066
02:32:40,440 --> 02:32:47,420
And what kind of behavior by
institutions could be observed through
2067
02:32:47,420 --> 02:32:48,420
structure?
2068
02:32:48,720 --> 02:32:54,960
Okay, now I'm just saying urgency to
buy, lots of value, still establishing a
2069
02:32:54,960 --> 02:32:58,420
position from Joe. Yes, all three are
correct.
2070
02:32:58,890 --> 02:33:00,710
And I would concentrate on the first
two.
2071
02:33:01,190 --> 02:33:08,090
Because it's an extreme oversold
condition that creates
2072
02:33:08,090 --> 02:33:12,070
extreme value proposition for
institutions.
2073
02:33:12,350 --> 02:33:17,010
And this extreme value proposition, both
long -term and short -term,
2074
02:33:17,990 --> 02:33:21,010
that's what creates that urgent buy.
2075
02:33:22,860 --> 02:33:27,000
which we've seen a lot, by the way,
lately with the way how the market has
2076
02:33:27,000 --> 02:33:32,460
behaving. And in some of the cases, you
see a lot of oversold conditions.
2077
02:33:33,340 --> 02:33:38,180
And from that oversold condition, you
take a stock like Apple
2078
02:33:38,180 --> 02:33:45,140
or other leadership type of stocks, and
then they decline so
2079
02:33:45,140 --> 02:33:50,180
much in such a short period of time, but
they're still within the secular
2080
02:33:50,180 --> 02:33:51,740
structure of their campaign.
2081
02:33:52,360 --> 02:33:56,040
So how do you think institutions are
going to look at this? Think about their
2082
02:33:56,040 --> 02:33:58,000
fundamental macro perspective.
2083
02:33:58,280 --> 02:34:03,700
If a macro money manager thinks that the
markets are short,
2084
02:34:03,720 --> 02:34:10,460
vulnerable, and weak, but they present
an opportunity within the
2085
02:34:10,460 --> 02:34:15,800
secular uptrend structure, then he or
she is going to come in and just buy
2086
02:34:15,800 --> 02:34:20,320
whatever the selection is available to
them based on the parameters of their
2087
02:34:20,320 --> 02:34:21,320
system.
2088
02:34:22,060 --> 02:34:26,660
And that's going to be their goal. The
fundamental money managers are going to
2089
02:34:26,660 --> 02:34:31,780
do the same. They're going to see some
value in the stock like Apple, you know,
2090
02:34:31,780 --> 02:34:36,920
and they could say that I'm just based
on the fundamentals. I see the value. So
2091
02:34:36,920 --> 02:34:41,260
I'm going to come in and buy. So this
extreme oversold, extreme value
2092
02:34:41,260 --> 02:34:46,620
proposition here creates urgency to buy,
you know, at the lows and throughout
2093
02:34:46,620 --> 02:34:47,680
all of the rallies.
2094
02:34:48,120 --> 02:34:50,840
And that's why, you know, this urgent.
2095
02:34:51,200 --> 02:34:53,240
buy -in creates this type of structure.
2096
02:34:54,100 --> 02:34:56,320
So then think about what happens next.
2097
02:34:56,520 --> 02:35:02,600
Let's say that the CEO bought the
position that they needed at this point
2098
02:35:02,600 --> 02:35:08,600
time. Because supply drastically went
down, the price goes up at this point.
2099
02:35:09,200 --> 02:35:13,740
And I would even argue that this move to
the upside, and you could go and find
2100
02:35:13,740 --> 02:35:18,000
this chart, but this is my assumption
here, just looking at how the price
2101
02:35:18,000 --> 02:35:21,320
and looking at that CEO has established
this position.
2102
02:35:21,800 --> 02:35:26,340
CEO is inactive on this rally.
2103
02:35:26,620 --> 02:35:33,100
And I doubt that institutional trend
followers following hands also are
2104
02:35:33,100 --> 02:35:36,960
extremely active. They might be active
more at the beginning of the rally, but
2105
02:35:36,960 --> 02:35:38,560
then everything else is kind of...
2106
02:35:38,840 --> 02:35:45,280
diminishes as we see momentum going
down, the spread decreasing, more
2107
02:35:45,280 --> 02:35:46,280
moves to the upside.
2108
02:35:46,620 --> 02:35:51,880
So we're probably seeing that demand is
going down and then the volume signature
2109
02:35:51,880 --> 02:35:55,360
in general is going to be lower than in
this area right here.
2110
02:35:55,900 --> 02:36:01,320
So as they are in the position and they
have some profit, what do they do? Well,
2111
02:36:01,400 --> 02:36:02,560
they might come in on some...
2112
02:36:02,780 --> 02:36:05,880
points of the volatility and, you know,
add to the position.
2113
02:36:06,280 --> 02:36:11,960
But it's not necessarily going to be a
very extreme, you know, big position
2114
02:36:11,960 --> 02:36:12,960
they're going to establish.
2115
02:36:13,000 --> 02:36:16,980
I would see even more that maybe on the
rally like this, we're going to see a
2116
02:36:16,980 --> 02:36:21,100
lot of increase of the demand signature.
And that's going to be some kind of
2117
02:36:21,100 --> 02:36:27,900
value or trend following type of
institution that's going to create
2118
02:36:27,900 --> 02:36:30,800
this type of the position. And they're
just going to say, wow.
2119
02:36:32,160 --> 02:36:33,800
This has confirmed the trend.
2120
02:36:37,220 --> 02:36:42,940
And then there is some short -term value
that I see here. So I'm going to come
2121
02:36:42,940 --> 02:36:43,739
in and buy.
2122
02:36:43,740 --> 02:36:46,540
But the way how they're buying, they're
not buying just one day.
2123
02:36:47,100 --> 02:36:50,020
They could be buying multiple days,
multiple weeks.
2124
02:36:50,240 --> 02:36:51,760
So that's what creates this rally.
2125
02:36:52,320 --> 02:36:56,880
So this is just a buying wave in the
middle of the trading range by some of
2126
02:36:56,880 --> 02:36:59,640
institutions because, again, short -term
value.
2127
02:37:00,170 --> 02:37:02,710
and long -term value still, and long
-term bias.
2128
02:37:03,410 --> 02:37:10,290
And then imagine that CO got in right
here, and then value
2129
02:37:10,290 --> 02:37:14,830
proposition for some of the institutions
at this spot, maybe somewhere here.
2130
02:37:15,450 --> 02:37:21,110
Then the rest of this move is just going
to have the signature where we're going
2131
02:37:21,110 --> 02:37:27,810
to still see some consistent signature
of the decline.
2132
02:37:28,510 --> 02:37:34,830
So something like this, and then
decline, decline, decline.
2133
02:37:35,070 --> 02:37:40,930
So you're going to have some pockets of
volume increase throughout this whole
2134
02:37:40,930 --> 02:37:47,110
slide here, but generally your highest
volume signature is going to be here.
2135
02:37:48,450 --> 02:37:54,330
This is the area where out of the
oversold condition there was so much
2136
02:37:54,330 --> 02:37:56,350
institutions, and then it's just going
to go down.
2137
02:37:57,160 --> 02:37:58,760
And it's going to go down like this.
2138
02:37:59,400 --> 02:38:03,680
And then just different pockets where
locally the volume signature is going to
2139
02:38:03,680 --> 02:38:08,320
increase. So CO bought here and then CO
is inactive.
2140
02:38:10,420 --> 02:38:16,140
And that's unfortunately not exactly how
we were taught. We were taught that CO
2141
02:38:16,140 --> 02:38:19,600
is operating in each of the trading
ranges. And this is not true.
2142
02:38:20,680 --> 02:38:25,000
Once they establish the position, you
know, and they just go to other stocks
2143
02:38:25,000 --> 02:38:26,040
establish positions there.
2144
02:38:26,570 --> 02:38:29,350
They might add on the way up, but not
necessarily.
2145
02:38:29,950 --> 02:38:33,670
It's going to be more a function of
other institutions seeing, you know,
2146
02:38:33,710 --> 02:38:38,450
establishment of the trend, some short
-term value, and then definitely, you
2147
02:38:38,450 --> 02:38:39,930
know, just going through this whole
thing.
2148
02:38:40,790 --> 02:38:41,790
All right.
2149
02:38:42,110 --> 02:38:43,110
Sounds good.
2150
02:38:43,250 --> 02:38:44,250
What else?
2151
02:38:51,720 --> 02:38:56,160
Why are you calling the event last point
of support in phase C instead of the
2152
02:38:56,160 --> 02:38:57,500
spring right here?
2153
02:38:58,240 --> 02:38:59,720
So this is a high or low.
2154
02:38:59,920 --> 02:39:03,360
So definitely going to be a last point
of support.
2155
02:39:03,700 --> 02:39:06,240
You could call this an attempt to
spring.
2156
02:39:06,560 --> 02:39:11,800
But look at this bar right here. So it
comes down, comes below the support. So
2157
02:39:11,800 --> 02:39:13,480
it's still a high or low. So that's why.
2158
02:39:13,860 --> 02:39:18,480
We could also be calling a spring
something that would go below.
2159
02:39:19,280 --> 02:39:23,360
more of the local support, so maybe
something like this, then we could say
2160
02:39:23,360 --> 02:39:28,120
this is a spring relative to this low
and still a higher low or less point of
2161
02:39:28,120 --> 02:39:29,940
support relative to this low.
2162
02:39:31,680 --> 02:39:33,260
Okay, good question.
2163
02:39:35,600 --> 02:39:40,000
All right, so let's see where we are. So
we have like 20 minutes or so.
2164
02:39:40,580 --> 02:39:43,620
All right, so let's talk about
identification of phase C.
2165
02:39:46,080 --> 02:39:51,720
How do we identify faith? We kind of
went through this, and this is just a
2166
02:39:51,720 --> 02:39:56,560
shortcut that, again, I've created for
myself and for my students.
2167
02:39:57,100 --> 02:40:01,900
This is not necessarily in the
methodology, and that's why, you know,
2168
02:40:01,900 --> 02:40:03,460
started calling these Romanisms.
2169
02:40:03,880 --> 02:40:08,580
So I'm okay with this. I'm kind of like,
when I say that this is a Romanism, so
2170
02:40:08,580 --> 02:40:13,740
you instantly should be thinking, you
know, not in the method, something that,
2171
02:40:13,840 --> 02:40:15,020
you know, kind of like,
2172
02:40:16,080 --> 02:40:21,060
more proprietary to this course, but
still it's going to be based on the
2173
02:40:21,060 --> 02:40:22,580
of Wyckoff ideas.
2174
02:40:23,060 --> 02:40:28,600
So I've talked about three tests at the
support level, right? So the first test
2175
02:40:28,600 --> 02:40:34,740
is going to be a local test of the
climactic action. Second test, in phase
2176
02:40:34,740 --> 02:40:38,780
the laws of the saline climax and the
secondary test. So in phase B, we're
2177
02:40:38,780 --> 02:40:41,300
basically testing the previous tests.
2178
02:40:41,860 --> 02:40:47,930
In phase C, At the support level, this
is the last test, the final test of the
2179
02:40:47,930 --> 02:40:50,470
supply at that support level.
2180
02:40:50,730 --> 02:40:54,670
And then our test number four is going
to be a back -nup action.
2181
02:40:55,830 --> 02:41:02,010
And it kind of is logical to me that the
initial tests are going to be at the
2182
02:41:02,010 --> 02:41:06,190
support level, and then the last test is
going to be at the next value zone.
2183
02:41:06,970 --> 02:41:10,630
So they've observed the supply at the
lows.
2184
02:41:11,440 --> 02:41:15,740
That pushes the price up into the new
highs.
2185
02:41:15,960 --> 02:41:20,560
In this case, not necessarily new highs,
but new highs relative to the highs in
2186
02:41:20,560 --> 02:41:23,800
phases A and B. So kind of like in the
same zone.
2187
02:41:24,400 --> 02:41:30,220
As it comes back to this area, we are
going to experience some kind of mean
2188
02:41:30,220 --> 02:41:32,440
reversion trade by professionals.
2189
02:41:33,860 --> 02:41:39,060
That's going to bring us to the
increased supply signature, change of
2190
02:41:39,720 --> 02:41:43,660
of the backing up action and therefore
we're going to have some kind of test
2191
02:41:43,660 --> 02:41:50,400
there so a test is the test number four
at this
2192
02:41:50,400 --> 02:41:55,100
level that we would say that it's going
to be a backup action in phase d and
2193
02:41:55,100 --> 02:41:59,960
it's being confirmed it confirms the
change of character the conclusion of
2194
02:41:59,960 --> 02:42:04,180
formation of the change of character and
then once the resumption of this test
2195
02:42:04,180 --> 02:42:10,680
happens then we're going to continue
with the uptrend Another identification
2196
02:42:10,680 --> 02:42:15,480
phase C that is very valuable to us is
the second point of fear.
2197
02:42:15,840 --> 02:42:20,900
So the points of fear are all going to
be discussed within the context of the
2198
02:42:20,900 --> 02:42:27,280
sentiment. Our first sentiment, bearish
sentiment, that we could find is going
2199
02:42:27,280 --> 02:42:30,860
to end there. Therefore, the first point
of fear is going to be in phase A. It's
2200
02:42:30,860 --> 02:42:33,120
going to be associated with the selling
climax.
2201
02:42:33,800 --> 02:42:38,080
Why this point of fear develops this
way? Well, I think I've mentioned this
2202
02:42:38,080 --> 02:42:39,080
times.
2203
02:42:39,420 --> 02:42:46,340
We are experiencing a capitulation by
2204
02:42:46,340 --> 02:42:47,340
weekends.
2205
02:42:48,300 --> 02:42:54,140
And in this instance, it's more of a
terminal capitulation.
2206
02:42:54,520 --> 02:42:59,060
And therefore, I sometimes call it a
general.
2207
02:42:59,610 --> 02:43:05,110
that would have both institutions and
public behind this capitulation.
2208
02:43:05,490 --> 02:43:07,110
And what is a capitulation?
2209
02:43:07,470 --> 02:43:08,890
It's just basically panic.
2210
02:43:10,230 --> 02:43:16,070
People at this point of time are
experiencing a lot of emotional pain
2211
02:43:16,070 --> 02:43:17,069
the losses.
2212
02:43:17,070 --> 02:43:21,690
And they can't withstand this pain
anymore and they're giving up on their
2213
02:43:21,690 --> 02:43:27,720
positions and they're saying, get me out
at any point of price time, but just
2214
02:43:27,720 --> 02:43:31,420
get me out. I cannot bear this anymore.
2215
02:43:31,720 --> 02:43:36,740
So therefore, this type of activity is
going to be associated with a lot of
2216
02:43:36,740 --> 02:43:41,860
selling, and a lot of selling is going
to produce technical characteristics as
2217
02:43:41,860 --> 02:43:48,240
increasing the momentum, increasing the
velocity, increasing the downspread,
2218
02:43:48,500 --> 02:43:50,980
increasing the distance to the downside.
2219
02:43:52,110 --> 02:43:57,630
that we see increase in the volume
signature and specifically increase in
2220
02:43:57,630 --> 02:44:04,530
supply signature by weak hands and
increase of the demand signature
2221
02:44:04,530 --> 02:44:06,510
by strong hands.
2222
02:44:08,410 --> 02:44:10,410
So first point of fear.
2223
02:44:11,610 --> 02:44:16,370
The second point of fear is not
necessarily going to be in phase B.
2224
02:44:17,090 --> 02:44:20,990
It could be in phase C. Why is that?
2225
02:44:21,360 --> 02:44:25,760
Well, think about the sentiment of weak
hands. They just sold here, and then the
2226
02:44:25,760 --> 02:44:29,300
price went up. What do you think they
feel at this point?
2227
02:44:29,700 --> 02:44:32,820
This is definitely a regret that they
have.
2228
02:44:33,160 --> 02:44:34,700
So what are they going to do?
2229
02:44:37,500 --> 02:44:38,500
They're going to buy.
2230
02:44:39,500 --> 02:44:45,620
If they're regretful that they didn't
hold on to this, and the price went up
2231
02:44:45,620 --> 02:44:49,640
like this, they're going to buy here,
and they're going to buy here, and
2232
02:44:49,640 --> 02:44:50,640
going to buy somewhere here.
2233
02:44:51,760 --> 02:44:57,220
Now, if the price goes down in phase B
into another test, what do you think
2234
02:44:57,220 --> 02:44:58,220
they're going to do now?
2235
02:45:01,080 --> 02:45:05,440
They're probably going to say, well, I
gave up my position on the selling
2236
02:45:05,440 --> 02:45:07,420
climax, and that was a mistake.
2237
02:45:08,700 --> 02:45:13,560
So this time, I'm going to hold on to
this position.
2238
02:45:14,040 --> 02:45:15,300
Have you guys done this?
2239
02:45:16,160 --> 02:45:18,720
Well, I definitely have done this
before.
2240
02:45:20,920 --> 02:45:24,960
I'm just happy I'm not doing this
anymore, but that was the sentiment.
2241
02:45:25,320 --> 02:45:28,780
That's how we trade when we are
amateurs.
2242
02:45:29,220 --> 02:45:34,220
We trade on our behaviors, on our
emotions.
2243
02:45:35,160 --> 02:45:37,240
We cannot control those yet.
2244
02:45:37,780 --> 02:45:42,980
So they are holding on to this position,
and when the price goes down, they're
2245
02:45:42,980 --> 02:45:44,980
still saying it will go up.
2246
02:45:45,440 --> 02:45:47,760
And as it goes up, what do they feel?
2247
02:45:48,480 --> 02:45:53,800
They feel happiness, right? So they feel
happy because the price goes by and
2248
02:45:53,800 --> 02:45:59,800
they think that was a good decision to
buy here, hold on to the stock, and now
2249
02:45:59,800 --> 02:46:02,400
the price is back almost into the same
area.
2250
02:46:04,000 --> 02:46:07,760
And they feel happy. So they're holding
on to the position and they might be
2251
02:46:07,760 --> 02:46:12,660
even adding to the position, maybe
somewhere at this spot right here.
2252
02:46:14,240 --> 02:46:16,920
So imagine what happens next when the
price...
2253
02:46:17,200 --> 02:46:22,340
gets down and has some kind of, you
know, or goes down just a little bit.
2254
02:46:23,400 --> 02:46:25,720
What do you think they're going to
experience then?
2255
02:46:27,440 --> 02:46:34,060
I mean, they've been through this ups
and downs, emotional ups and downs, up
2256
02:46:34,060 --> 02:46:38,380
the phase C point, and they're so
exhausted.
2257
02:46:39,560 --> 02:46:42,460
They are extremely exhausted
emotionally.
2258
02:46:43,340 --> 02:46:47,000
And they're just saying at this point,
when the price goes down into phase C
2259
02:46:47,000 --> 02:46:49,580
low, they're saying like, get me out.
2260
02:46:52,280 --> 02:46:54,960
And this time, they make a promise.
2261
02:46:57,240 --> 02:47:00,220
What is that promise, by the way, guys?
Could you think of one?
2262
02:47:00,980 --> 02:47:05,760
Well, that promise is to never trade
this stock again.
2263
02:47:11,140 --> 02:47:12,580
Or at least for the time being.
2264
02:47:13,080 --> 02:47:18,360
It's an emotional withdrawal from
emotional pain that is based on just
2265
02:47:18,360 --> 02:47:21,080
inexperience, no knowledge, no skill.
2266
02:47:22,080 --> 02:47:28,960
And unfortunately, that's how weak
hands, that's their pattern,
2267
02:47:29,060 --> 02:47:30,060
that's their cycle.
2268
02:47:30,200 --> 02:47:34,620
They will go to the next dog and they
will experience the same things over and
2269
02:47:34,620 --> 02:47:38,460
over. It could be a different contextual
interpretation of the sentiment of how
2270
02:47:38,460 --> 02:47:44,150
it happens. But basically, on the very
primal level, of how we experience
2271
02:47:44,150 --> 02:47:46,250
emotions. It's going to be the same.
2272
02:47:46,530 --> 02:47:52,850
So that's why this is going to be the
second time where weak
2273
02:47:52,850 --> 02:47:55,170
hands are going to capitulate.
2274
02:47:57,850 --> 02:48:04,350
Now this is going to be a less of
capitulation just because,
2275
02:48:04,470 --> 02:48:09,030
and it's going to be more public
capitulation.
2276
02:48:10,460 --> 02:48:16,740
than institutional. Why? Because
institutional weak hands, they are much
2277
02:48:16,740 --> 02:48:21,840
learners. They are much more adaptive
because if they don't adapt quicker,
2278
02:48:22,040 --> 02:48:24,220
they're going to lose their job, they're
going to lose their salaries.
2279
02:48:25,100 --> 02:48:28,660
Money management is based on the
performance matrix.
2280
02:48:29,600 --> 02:48:33,880
So if you don't perform, you don't get
the money, you don't get the salary, you
2281
02:48:33,880 --> 02:48:34,880
don't have a job.
2282
02:48:34,980 --> 02:48:38,120
So it's much stricter there than with
the public.
2283
02:48:38,500 --> 02:48:39,500
So therefore,
2284
02:48:40,080 --> 02:48:44,740
institutions hopefully learn much
faster, at least what I see, working
2285
02:48:44,740 --> 02:48:49,860
and working with the public retail
trader. So therefore, the second point
2286
02:48:49,860 --> 02:48:53,120
fear is going to be more associated with
public than with institutions.
2287
02:48:53,600 --> 02:48:57,960
And if that's the case, usually the
volume signature on this is going to
2288
02:48:57,960 --> 02:49:03,720
increase locally of phase B,
2289
02:49:03,820 --> 02:49:07,660
but it's going to decrease
2290
02:49:14,140 --> 02:49:20,780
relative to phase A law, relative to
selling climax,
2291
02:49:21,040 --> 02:49:26,040
where we have both institutions and
public capitulating at the same time.
2292
02:49:27,880 --> 02:49:31,520
That's a very small nuance, but it's a
very, very big point.
2293
02:49:31,960 --> 02:49:35,540
Because if you could see this logic
through the chart,
2294
02:49:36,460 --> 02:49:40,940
And you could understand that with the
public capitulating here, going into
2295
02:49:40,940 --> 02:49:45,440
phase C, and we're seeing that on the
technical picture, the price goes down,
2296
02:49:45,460 --> 02:49:47,020
but then quickly comes back.
2297
02:49:47,400 --> 02:49:52,440
You might be thinking this is the last
time when public capitulates, and where
2298
02:49:52,440 --> 02:49:56,300
institutions, the last time at the
support level, are actually buying a
2299
02:49:56,300 --> 02:49:57,460
meaningful position.
2300
02:49:58,120 --> 02:50:00,860
And they add them to the position that
they already have.
2301
02:50:02,200 --> 02:50:04,960
Therefore, this last...
2302
02:50:06,860 --> 02:50:12,960
Public supply is observed at this level,
and therefore, what's going to happen
2303
02:50:12,960 --> 02:50:19,060
after that? There is only one thing. The
price will go up. As supply has been
2304
02:50:19,060 --> 02:50:26,020
observed at the support level, those
last pieces on last public capitulation
2305
02:50:26,020 --> 02:50:32,860
into Phase C, that absorption leads to
the rise to the sign
2306
02:50:32,860 --> 02:50:33,860
of strength.
2307
02:50:34,120 --> 02:50:36,740
And then this is where mean reversion
trades happen.
2308
02:50:38,480 --> 02:50:43,720
So it's kind of funny, you know, at some
point when you understand, you know,
2309
02:50:43,720 --> 02:50:49,680
the mechanics of it as to what happens
next with weak hands. They said, never,
2310
02:50:49,740 --> 02:50:53,460
never, never will I get into this
position again, into this stock.
2311
02:50:53,760 --> 02:50:58,560
And they are missing this whole rally
right here. And once it overcomes and it
2312
02:50:58,560 --> 02:51:00,340
becomes a CNBC item.
2313
02:51:01,610 --> 02:51:04,310
And everybody is screaming, it's in the
uptrend.
2314
02:51:05,170 --> 02:51:06,990
They're saying, I got to go in.
2315
02:51:07,430 --> 02:51:09,950
So they're establishing the position
right here again.
2316
02:51:10,170 --> 02:51:13,830
And they're saying, I said that I'm not
going to go in into this position, but
2317
02:51:13,830 --> 02:51:15,090
this is the time now.
2318
02:51:15,610 --> 02:51:21,230
And then the first time the price goes
down into the backing up action, they
2319
02:51:21,230 --> 02:51:27,750
so already conditioned on all of these
reactions and all of this.
2320
02:51:28,400 --> 02:51:32,920
you know, attempts to go up and failure,
attempts to go up and failure, attempt
2321
02:51:32,920 --> 02:51:37,820
to go up and then the beginning of the
failure in their rise, what do you think
2322
02:51:37,820 --> 02:51:38,820
they're going to do here?
2323
02:51:38,920 --> 02:51:44,200
They're going to sell their position
again with the loss and they're going to
2324
02:51:44,200 --> 02:51:49,040
say, well, now for sure, I'm not going
to go into this position. I should write
2325
02:51:49,040 --> 02:51:53,300
just, you know, a book for kids about
this, you know, just explain to them in
2326
02:51:53,300 --> 02:51:55,820
such simplistic terms, you know, how
their psychology.
2327
02:51:56,730 --> 02:52:02,810
uh you know unfold so they are like uh
i'm selling with the loss and now i'm
2328
02:52:02,810 --> 02:52:08,230
going to go in into this position and
they are missing the whole trip so now
2329
02:52:08,230 --> 02:52:12,170
imagine if this is a distribution
somewhere here really quickly and then
2330
02:52:12,170 --> 02:52:18,850
stop maybe here if this is a
distribution they you know on the way up
2331
02:52:18,850 --> 02:52:21,310
like what did i do why did i close this
position
2332
02:52:25,480 --> 02:52:30,980
And then as they go into the next
consolidation, which is the
2333
02:52:30,980 --> 02:52:33,000
they're seeing a change of character.
2334
02:52:33,500 --> 02:52:40,180
So they're seeing what? They're seeing
reaction, which creates value for them,
2335
02:52:40,240 --> 02:52:41,240
short -term value.
2336
02:52:41,480 --> 02:52:42,940
And I'm talking about weekends.
2337
02:52:44,160 --> 02:52:47,260
In this case, not just public, but
institutions as well.
2338
02:52:48,140 --> 02:52:50,900
And they're saying, like, I've got to go
in and buy.
2339
02:52:51,740 --> 02:52:53,040
So they're buying here.
2340
02:52:53,580 --> 02:52:55,560
On the secondary test, they feel great.
2341
02:52:55,820 --> 02:53:00,560
On the next reaction to the downside,
they're saying, I made this stupid
2342
02:53:00,560 --> 02:53:05,840
here at the original accumulation to get
out of the position. And every time it
2343
02:53:05,840 --> 02:53:09,140
was going up after I got out. So I'm
going to hold on to this.
2344
02:53:09,800 --> 02:53:11,920
Okay, well, holding on.
2345
02:53:12,640 --> 02:53:14,480
And what happens in the distribution?
2346
02:53:15,100 --> 02:53:19,200
Obviously not what happened with Apple
at this time, but I'm just giving you an
2347
02:53:19,200 --> 02:53:20,200
example here.
2348
02:53:20,520 --> 02:53:22,760
All right, so they accumulate, they
accumulate.
2349
02:53:23,020 --> 02:53:25,080
The price goes up into the upthrust.
2350
02:53:25,580 --> 02:53:28,920
This becomes a second point of
excitement for them.
2351
02:53:30,120 --> 02:53:34,120
The first one was on the buying climax.
This is where they will be, you know,
2352
02:53:34,120 --> 02:53:35,120
buyers as well.
2353
02:53:36,420 --> 02:53:39,800
And they are saying like, this time I'm
just going to hold on to this.
2354
02:53:40,020 --> 02:53:45,200
As the price goes down into this
excitement with them adding to the
2355
02:53:45,380 --> 02:53:48,360
institutions are going to sell, sell.
2356
02:53:49,800 --> 02:53:55,520
sell on the change of character, sell in
phase B, sell on the way down, and then
2357
02:53:55,520 --> 02:54:00,940
capitulate on the way down. And
throughout this whole formation, weak
2358
02:54:00,940 --> 02:54:07,440
going to hold on and they're going to
capitulate relative to the emotional
2359
02:54:07,440 --> 02:54:12,340
that they have that they can withstand
and to the knowledge and skill that they
2360
02:54:12,340 --> 02:54:16,770
have. So some of them are going to
capitulate some way here, and usually
2361
02:54:16,770 --> 02:54:19,650
area is going to be associated with the
largest volume signature.
2362
02:54:19,970 --> 02:54:24,590
And some of them are going to capitulate
maybe some way here. So depending on,
2363
02:54:24,650 --> 02:54:29,790
you know, the system for institutions
and depending on the emotional pain for
2364
02:54:29,790 --> 02:54:30,790
the public.
2365
02:54:31,850 --> 02:54:35,950
Doug is saying, been there, done that,
great description.
2366
02:54:36,870 --> 02:54:38,830
Yes, we all have done that.
2367
02:54:39,750 --> 02:54:41,910
We all have experienced that pain.
2368
02:54:42,440 --> 02:54:44,840
This is the reason why you are in this
class.
2369
02:54:45,100 --> 02:54:50,560
Going through your emails, reading
those, and reading who you are as
2370
02:54:50,560 --> 02:54:53,880
right now and who you've been as traders
and your inspirations.
2371
02:54:54,420 --> 02:55:00,320
The majority of students in this class
are here for the right reason.
2372
02:55:01,720 --> 02:55:08,560
You guys are trying to figure out how to
make money in the market by...
2373
02:55:08,890 --> 02:55:13,130
having the knowledge, developing the
skill, developing the system, and being
2374
02:55:13,130 --> 02:55:19,410
able to control your own behaviors in a
different way than how you've done
2375
02:55:19,410 --> 02:55:21,170
before or what you're doing right now.
2376
02:55:21,670 --> 02:55:27,790
And I'm just showing you how you could
interpret the chart in such a way that
2377
02:55:27,790 --> 02:55:34,670
would be systematic, logical, and that
would elevate your emotional pain
2378
02:55:34,670 --> 02:55:35,670
you will know.
2379
02:55:36,110 --> 02:55:39,990
at which points you need to act. You
will know at which points you need to
2380
02:55:39,990 --> 02:55:42,630
in, to get out, to add, to scale out.
2381
02:55:43,630 --> 02:55:48,030
It's just going to take some time, but
it's going to be valuable.
2382
02:55:48,710 --> 02:55:52,750
And that's kind of like the message to
all of your emails that I've seen today
2383
02:55:52,750 --> 02:55:53,750
from you guys.
2384
02:55:54,270 --> 02:55:57,850
All right. I think this is a good point
for us to stop.
2385
02:55:58,830 --> 02:56:00,590
Right? So it's almost six.
2386
02:56:01,370 --> 02:56:05,030
And let's go through the homework.
2387
02:56:06,320 --> 02:56:10,060
I'm still going to give you the
homework, so let me just do this.
2388
02:56:11,660 --> 02:56:15,520
Okay, you should not be able to see
anything.
2389
02:56:19,200 --> 02:56:24,340
And, okay, now you should be able to see
the homework slide.
2390
02:56:26,360 --> 02:56:32,280
Okay, so what do we do next? Well, first
of all, I would like you to continue
2391
02:56:32,280 --> 02:56:39,100
with, you know, if you have a lot of
time, And there are some of you who told
2392
02:56:39,100 --> 02:56:42,820
me, I'm here to gain as much knowledge
from you as possible.
2393
02:56:43,020 --> 02:56:46,660
I'm going to do anything to gain that
skill.
2394
02:56:47,440 --> 02:56:53,040
I'm passionate about this. I have time
for this. So for those of you who are
2395
02:56:53,040 --> 02:56:59,640
like that, so your task is, so I'm going
to put this as an optional task.
2396
02:57:06,220 --> 02:57:09,320
Your task is to watch this session
again.
2397
02:57:12,460 --> 02:57:15,000
Your second task, make notes.
2398
02:57:16,740 --> 02:57:17,940
Send those to me.
2399
02:57:21,600 --> 02:57:28,480
Your third task is going to be go
through
2400
02:57:28,480 --> 02:57:31,100
HD homework again.
2401
02:57:32,920 --> 02:57:34,680
The one that we've covered.
2402
02:57:35,470 --> 02:57:41,310
And kind of go through your chart and
then my labeling.
2403
02:57:42,690 --> 02:57:43,730
And compare.
2404
02:57:44,230 --> 02:57:46,870
And ask yourself one question.
2405
02:57:47,470 --> 02:57:48,470
Why?
2406
02:57:49,150 --> 02:57:51,410
Why did he label it like this?
2407
02:57:52,770 --> 02:57:59,170
So this type of questioning will bring
more questions that we could answer
2408
02:57:59,170 --> 02:58:00,170
on.
2409
02:58:00,890 --> 02:58:03,950
But what it does is it makes you think.
2410
02:58:04,410 --> 02:58:08,790
One of the things that I'm also
noticing, and I'm not saying this about
2411
02:58:08,790 --> 02:58:14,090
group in particular or anybody in
particular, but we as people tend to
2412
02:58:14,090 --> 02:58:18,870
thinking. You know, we kind of sometimes
think that we know everything.
2413
02:58:19,550 --> 02:58:22,930
That's not the case. I mean, like, I've
been teaching this material for quite
2414
02:58:22,930 --> 02:58:27,590
some time. You know, and even some
people that say, yeah, I've taken
2415
02:58:27,590 --> 02:58:31,490
from this and this. I've read these
books. I've read these articles. I know
2416
02:58:31,490 --> 02:58:33,730
methodology. They come to this class.
2417
02:58:34,270 --> 02:58:38,090
And they feel how much they don't know.
2418
02:58:38,630 --> 02:58:45,250
And that's just because the market is
much more than anything that we've
2419
02:58:45,250 --> 02:58:47,310
started, you know, in our lifetime.
2420
02:58:47,610 --> 02:58:52,030
You know, it's just such a complex
pattern. It's such a complex, you know,
2421
02:58:52,030 --> 02:58:54,890
algorithm and system that we're playing
with.
2422
02:58:55,090 --> 02:59:01,750
So you have to always be, you know,
educating yourself.
2423
02:59:01,910 --> 02:59:02,910
And the best...
2424
02:59:03,130 --> 02:59:07,910
Education, I think, you know, going
through this course is always asking the
2425
02:59:07,910 --> 02:59:08,910
question of why.
2426
02:59:09,170 --> 02:59:10,490
Why is this happening?
2427
02:59:11,810 --> 02:59:15,770
So that's an extremely important
question. So this is for those of you
2428
02:59:15,770 --> 02:59:21,270
time and who want, you know, more of
the,
2429
02:59:21,410 --> 02:59:24,890
more assignments, right?
2430
02:59:25,110 --> 02:59:27,250
But then for everyone else,
2431
02:59:28,590 --> 02:59:32,710
Regular assignment is just going to be
the same assignment that we've done with
2432
02:59:32,710 --> 02:59:34,550
Home Depot, but on the distribution.
2433
02:59:35,070 --> 02:59:38,950
So I'm going to give you the slides with
the distributional patterns. You know
2434
02:59:38,950 --> 02:59:42,090
that this is a distribution, and then
you just have to label this.
2435
02:59:42,530 --> 02:59:47,130
Now, I'm also going to give you some
slides on the distribution and WICA
2436
02:59:47,130 --> 02:59:51,050
and the events and the changes of
character in the distribution pattern
2437
02:59:51,370 --> 02:59:55,390
So you will have to kind of like go
through those slides, read those, read
2438
02:59:55,390 --> 02:59:57,050
characteristics, and so on and so forth.
2439
02:59:57,820 --> 03:00:00,620
But that's the only homework that I want
you to do.
2440
03:00:01,080 --> 03:00:03,460
Watching the recording, again, is
optional.
2441
03:00:03,700 --> 03:00:08,920
I totally understand when somebody
emails me and says, well, I've got a
2442
03:00:08,920 --> 03:00:12,000
five job. It's very demanding. And then
I have a family.
2443
03:00:12,660 --> 03:00:19,140
Guys, I totally hear you. And to those
of you who are in this situation,
2444
03:00:19,420 --> 03:00:20,720
go at your own pace.
2445
03:00:21,700 --> 03:00:26,080
You know, you don't have to put so much
pressure on yourself right away.
2446
03:00:26,650 --> 03:00:28,590
But just listen to the recordings.
2447
03:00:28,830 --> 03:00:30,150
That could be one thing to do.
2448
03:00:30,390 --> 03:00:33,850
Then if you have time, do the homework,
send it to me.
2449
03:00:34,410 --> 03:00:39,110
Then if you have more time, well, then
rewatch the recording. But if you can't
2450
03:00:39,110 --> 03:00:40,410
rewatch the recording, don't worry.
2451
03:00:41,310 --> 03:00:45,710
Just go through the course this one
time. You will have the recordings after
2452
03:00:45,710 --> 03:00:49,150
course. Go through the course again by
yourself.
2453
03:00:49,750 --> 03:00:54,530
Or you can sign up for the course again
at the alumni rate and then go through
2454
03:00:54,530 --> 03:00:55,910
the live sessions again with me.
2455
03:00:56,280 --> 03:00:59,780
A lot of people, actually. A lot of
alumni in this class right now.
2456
03:01:00,740 --> 03:01:03,060
Because, again, so much material.
2457
03:01:03,280 --> 03:01:05,920
Three hours today and I gave you so
much.
2458
03:01:06,140 --> 03:01:08,900
I probably have given you over 100
concepts.
2459
03:01:09,620 --> 03:01:13,540
You know, those small details that you
have to go through. So it just takes
2460
03:01:13,540 --> 03:01:15,540
time. So it's all understandable.
2461
03:01:15,820 --> 03:01:18,300
So let's look at the slides for this
homework.
2462
03:01:18,860 --> 03:01:19,860
Here's one.
2463
03:01:20,280 --> 03:01:21,360
Callaway Golf.
2464
03:01:22,960 --> 03:01:23,960
Netflix.
2465
03:01:27,340 --> 03:01:28,540
Apple, Nasdaq,
2466
03:01:29,660 --> 03:01:33,060
Alexian Pharmaceutical, and Yahoo.
2467
03:01:33,420 --> 03:01:40,260
So Yahoo is going to be your, probably
Alexian Pharmaceutical and Yahoo are
2468
03:01:40,260 --> 03:01:42,140
going to be the two hardest charts.
2469
03:01:42,480 --> 03:01:46,780
Everything else should be quite easy if
you follow the schematics.
2470
03:01:47,080 --> 03:01:50,920
And then I'm going to give you this
material, but we will go through this
2471
03:01:50,920 --> 03:01:54,620
material hopefully next time, but this
is something that you should be
2472
03:01:55,080 --> 03:01:56,160
before you do the homework.
2473
03:01:56,460 --> 03:02:02,260
So the like of events, the phases,
characteristics of those events,
2474
03:02:02,360 --> 03:02:07,480
again, that I want you to go through to
remember, and different
2475
03:02:07,480 --> 03:02:11,460
schematics on how distribution could
unfold.
2476
03:02:11,860 --> 03:02:16,080
Again, this is something that we will be
covering in the next class.
2477
03:02:17,860 --> 03:02:18,860
All right, guys.
2478
03:02:19,290 --> 03:02:21,870
Well, that's it for today. Good session.
2479
03:02:22,150 --> 03:02:26,350
I would be expecting that the next
session is going to be as intense as
2480
03:02:26,350 --> 03:02:27,289
one.
2481
03:02:27,290 --> 03:02:32,830
So please be prepared that we're going
to go to the third hour, to the end of
2482
03:02:32,830 --> 03:02:37,630
the third hour, and we're going to
finish first the homework on Home Depot.
2483
03:02:37,630 --> 03:02:42,750
still very crucial for us to go through
that. And then hopefully next class, but
2484
03:02:42,750 --> 03:02:46,830
if not, then the class after that, we're
going to go through the homework on the
2485
03:02:46,830 --> 03:02:47,830
distribution.
2486
03:02:48,170 --> 03:02:52,370
And after that, once we conclude our
structural analysis, that's when we're
2487
03:02:52,370 --> 03:02:54,030
going to switch to supply and demand.
2488
03:02:54,750 --> 03:02:55,669
All right.
2489
03:02:55,670 --> 03:02:58,770
I'm going to be expecting your emails
with your homework.
2490
03:02:59,490 --> 03:03:02,430
Good job, everybody, you know, with the
homework.
2491
03:03:02,750 --> 03:03:08,650
I really liked it. Good job today with
all of the volunteers. And you guys have
2492
03:03:08,650 --> 03:03:11,090
been writing a lot. I see a lot of
comments.
2493
03:03:11,350 --> 03:03:15,390
So this is great. This is exactly the
way how I want to conduct this class.
2494
03:03:15,650 --> 03:03:20,370
This is exactly the... type of
interactivity that I want to have with
2495
03:03:20,370 --> 03:03:25,510
that, happy trading for this week. I'll
see you next Monday. Thank you, guys.
2496
03:03:25,730 --> 03:03:26,730
Bye -bye.
224711
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