All language subtitles for wyckoff_trading_course_webinar_1_-_january_7_2019

Hello, everyone. Today is January 7th,
and this is the first session of the

Wyckoff Trading Course.

We're going to have 15 sessions, and
it's always exciting to start the new

cycle, to meet new people, new traders,
new Wyckoffians that are coming into our

new universe and becoming part of our
community, and we welcome you.

And for those of you who are guests,
Just for this session, please enjoy this

session. If you have any questions,
email me. Go to our website.

Browse through our products, offerings,
free offerings.

Maybe you decide to attend other
classes.

And if you have questions about the
course, I will be happy to answer those

either via email or today. You could
always ask the question just typing it

So for those of you who already signed
up, for this session.

There are two groups of people, actually
three groups of people for this session

that we are having today.

The first one is students who already
signed up and you are new students.

You haven't taken this course before, so
I will be addressing you in a specific

way. I will be

Throughout this whole lecture, I will be
giving you certain instructions as to

what am I expecting from you a week from
now. We'll talk about the homework.

We'll talk about some books that I'm
going to recommend, some additional

material that I want you to read or to
view.

And the second group is the alumni.

students who have gone through the
course and they come back just because

there's so much material and just to
absorb all of this material in one set

could be a little bit hard.

And I had so many great comments from
alumni when they take the

course for the second time and obviously
would give you guys a discount.

So for those of you who are alumni, if
you feel that you need to refresh your

knowledge. And obviously, from each
cycle to another cycle, I hope that I'm

improving the material, adding to the
material, or explaining it in a

way.

So hopefully, that's going to be
helpful. And the third group is guests.

So again, for those of you who are
guests, welcome.

And I'm so happy that you're here.

Our Wyckoff Price Structure Series, the
beginning, the first four sessions,

starting with today's session. I'm going
to continue until January 14th, 21st,

and 28th. We're going to meet at 3 p .m.
Pacific. For those of you who know me,

I'm extremely bad with time management
just because I want to give you guys a

lot of the stuff.

And sometimes we kind of spill over just
a regular 5 o 'clock

Indian for the class. So this cycle, and
this is the new innovation, I decided

that officially we're going to have the
class for two and a half hours from 3 p

.m. to 5 .30 p .m. Pacific.

And as you know, those who attended
these classes before, sometimes we go to

'clock as well.

Sometimes I feel like we need to finish
the exercise or we need to finish a

lecture and we'll do that. So I would
say that, you know, keep like three

for the live session and obviously you
don't have to stay through the whole

session if you need to go. It's all
understandable.

And, you know, if you...

are unable to attend a live session, or
we have so many international students

that live across the globe.

For those of you who live outside of the
U .S.

or, you know, this continent and this
time zone,

all of our sessions are recorded, and I
post them each evening after the class.

And usually, you know, the latest by the
next morning, you're going to have the

video from the last class and the slides
as well.

For those of you who are guests to
register for this course, go to our

ycafanalytics .com. You could find the
course either on the homepage or...

Just browse through the website and find
the correct pages. Sign up. We have a

discounted price right now at $9 .98.

That will last probably until January
14th, and that is for the 15

webinar or recorded sessions.

All of the recordings and slides will be
available to you guys who signed up for

this class.

This particular session will be posted
on YouTube channel. So right away,

make a note of this right here at the
bottom, left bottom on the

slide. I'm posting an announcement that
we are recording this session and it

will be on YouTube.

If not tonight, then by tomorrow
morning. And again, if you need to go,

know, just keep this in mind and you can
watch it at your convenience.

A really quick announcement for students
who already signed up for this course.

There is a specific way how I want to
receive your homework, and

we've been doing this for over 15 cycles
now, and

I think even more, maybe more than 20
cycles.

I want you to submit your homework just
in one file.

I don't need to receive multiple files
from you with all of the charts.

Please combine those into one file.

And my preference is always PowerPoint
or the PDF or the Word

doc format.

And obviously, I want to see your first
name. You don't have to put your last

name. And you could mention what number
of the homework.

It is. I save all of your homework. I go
through all of them. I review all of

them. And the reason why I do this is
because I need to understand what kind

mistakes we're making as a group, what
kind of commonality we have among us in

the way how we view the instructions,
the material, and so on and so forth.

And I'll talk about this more as I will
explain next week's homework for

you guys.

And the last announcement, and this is
extremely important for those of you who

signed up.

Our classes are extremely interactive.

The first class is the only class that
is a lecture.

Everything else is a class where I'm
going to be lecturing,

and then I'm going to open up the mic to
either a specific student or to

everybody, and everybody could comment.

And as we go through the exercise, I
will converse with you. So this means

I would like you to have a microphone
available to you.

Usually I recommend a headset with the
built -in microphone.

That works the best. That's what I'm
using.

And, you know, as alumni might tell you
or other students from other classes,

there is a lot of interaction that
happens in this class. The reason why I

interact with students is because I want
to understand how you think and what is

the issue in your analysis.

And it's throughout the conversation
that the truth kind of comes out and

easier for me to teach that way.

And it's been like this for years and
years, so that's a very common thing for

us to do.

All right, so we're done with this.

Let's look at, and obviously everything
that we're discussing today in this

lecture is for educational purposes
only. You can stop the recording and

the whole disclaimer.

What are we going to look at today?

So today, as usual in this first class,
I'm going to show you some examples of

my trades.

Yes, I do trade, and I teach, and I
teach what I trade.

I trade, my predominant time frame is a
swing time frame, and there are a couple

of distinctions there that I usually
have, either very short swing trades

couple of days to a week or so.

or swing trades that last for months.

And then I also started doing, in the
last two years, a lot of campaign

So I'm going to show you some of those
trades as well. And obviously this is

just something to highlight the method,
the analysis, the execution,

the tactics.

I'm also a person who is...

extremely honest with my students and I
show my mistakes and I think that I need

to I want to be in the space of you know
honesty with my

students I want you guys to show me your
mistakes and I'll show you mine and

together we we're going to learn from
that we're going to analyze we're going

post analyze we're going to figure out
what is it that we're doing right or

wrong

So this is the type of relationship that
I usually build with my students. So

today we're going to look at four
traits, two of them on the short

side and two of them on the long side.

Some of them were great traits, some of
them were good traits, and some of them

were bad traits.

So we're going to look at where mistakes
were made.

Also, and this is something that... I
usually don't do in this class a lot,

whenever the market is extremely active,
I tend to discuss the market almost in

each class just because I know how
difficult it is to be exposed to the

market. And then when something happens,
you know.

Obviously, students have questions, and
I'm bombarded with emails.

You know, what do you think? What's
happening? Could you look at this and

And I will talk also about the Wyckoff
Market discussion class that we conduct

on Wednesdays.

Currently, we have a promotion. I'll
mention that.

So I think it's appropriate today very
quickly go through the market analysis.

Then after that, we're going to do the
course overview.

I'm just going to touch on the main
subjects that we're going to cover in

four series.

And then after that, we're going to
start with the actual course.

We're going to start with the
introduction to the Wyckoff method.

about Richard Wyckoff himself.

We'll define what composite operator
means to us. We'll talk about the price

cycle, which is a predominant framework
for us.

And then we'll start with the main
structural concepts, which is a change

character and then the traits of the
accumulation and the distribution.

And obviously, this is just an
introduction.

This is something that I'm just giving
to you guys to maybe even

think about what's coming next and to
think about the

benefits.

of this knowledge and how you could
apply this knowledge in your trading.

then we'll definitely look at the
homework.

Next session, for those of you who
already signed up or who are planning to

up, we're going to go into the details
of the price structural analysis.

First, we'll review the homework.

And by the way, the most common question
from students who signed up was,

obviously about the recordings, so you
will have the recordings almost

instantly.

And then the second most common question
was, can I email you a question and ask

you if I don't understand something?

You can definitely do so, but my
preference is to look at your question

answer to the question during the
session.

There is a...

much more value for me and for students
in the class if I answer your question

in the next class.

And obviously, I want this question to
be related to the content that we are

discussing at the time. So any questions
that might be covering some material

that is ahead, I'm just going to say
we're going to study this later on.

Or I'm going to say keep this question
for session number 15, which is going to

be a Q &A session for us. And then some
of the questions that does not

require me to write a lot, I might just,
you know, quickly write an answer.

But predominantly we will be answering
and looking at those questions during

next class.

We'll talk in session two about...

reaccumulation and redistribution within
the structure of the price cycle.

Some distinctions there, some labeling
distinctions.

And the biggest question here on the
reaccumulation and the redistribution

let's say with the reaccumulation, is
this a reaccumulation or a distribution?

And the market obviously gave us such a
puzzle in 2018.

And I think that puzzle is still
unfolding, by the way. By no means that

we are out of this formation yet. It
just still keeps unfolding.

But we'll talk about the traits of the
reaccumulation and the distribution,

distinctions between reaccumulation and
distribution,

distinctions in labeling, and so on and
so forth.

And then after that, we're going to go
into the details on the price structural

analysis where we will discuss how to
identify the phase boundaries, you know,

and we'll talk about the phase analysis,
why do we need that, and we'll talk

about this today a little bit.

We'll talk about phase C identification.
For those of you who are familiar with

Y -graph methodology, phase C is kind of
like a very crucial phase in the price

structure.

That structural phase C, we'll talk
about types of sprints and shakeouts.

are specific price action that we
identify. They happen in a specific way,

want to be able to identify those and
develop the skill to recognize those

as they happen.

We'll talk about the sign of strength,
and that is...

beyond phase C, going into the next
phase D.

So in sign of strength, it's going to
act as a change of character.

And that's session number two.

Each session will have some kind of
homework.

So one of the things with students from
each of the cycles that I've conducted

was that the course is too intense and
that it

requires, you know, definitely time to
follow the course.

And unfortunately, I have only
marginally

valuable answers to these comments to
you guys.

I think it's always the pace of a
specific student that I'm discussing.

If somebody has time...

and you are very serious about this
knowledge and you want to get it as soon

possible, then yes, you have to do your
homework each week.

And if you skip it, then make sure that
you come back, you do it, you send it to

me, and then you watch the video with
the review or at least you have some

of questions.

If you don't have a lot of time, to do
the homework, then I think the best

assignment for you is just to make sure
that you just go through the video.

And as you go through the video and you
watch it, I want you to make some

notes. And those don't have to be very
extensive notes. I just want you to kind

of like stop the video, think about the
concepts, write those down, write those

concepts in your own words.

And that would be the best thing. This
way, you are acquiring the knowledge.

are absorbing the knowledge. And during
this course, I will be repeating

concepts over and over and over and over
again.

Because that's how our minds work.

Our minds are, you know, and especially
if you, as

myself, not that young, you know, it
takes time.

to go through some of the concepts, and
there's nothing wrong in that. We just

need to repeat them over and over.

So as you could already maybe see, I'm
extremely passionate about this

material, trading in general, Wyckoff
Method in general, and my students as

well. I like to see the progress.

I like to push you guys. So I kind of
have a tendency to be a little bit, you

know, kind of...

pushing you to the limits that you allow
me, you know, to push you.

And I think, you know, that's one of the
values of this course. And I've heard

these comments before from students that
they appreciate my teaching style and I

appreciate that comment and, you know,
the fact that a lot of them just come

back.

But that's the intensity and that's the
style that I have.

And again, if you feel that that's a
little bit too much, it doesn't mean

you don't...

You don't have to take the course.

Take the course, but go at your own
pace.

You could always, you know, buy the
course and then go and watch the

at your own pace.

Send me homework.

Send me questions.

Maybe come to the live session if you
want.

I would actually do both if you have
time, live session and then watch the

recording again.

Again, this session is being recorded.

and I will post it on our Wyckoff
Trigging Method channel on YouTube.

By the way, check it out. We have quite
a few videos now, and almost each week

there is some kind of update. There is
some kind of upload of a new video.

So check out our channel. And, you know,
for those of you who want to sign up,

Go to our website.

Currently, the price is still a
discounted price, so make sure that you

before it goes up.

All right, so let's start with the first
case study. And the first case study,

well, because, you know, there's such a
bearish sentiment right now, and

obviously, rightfully so, we have had
low highs, lower lows, a conventional T8

definition.

of a downtrend so obviously you know i
wanted to look at the at trades that

done that were on the downside so we'll
look at nova tier and we'll look at

russell 2000 and here are these two
traits first let's look at nova d

so nova deer was a very interesting uh
case study and i think that

um

It probably requires more time to spend
on this and

to fully understand how and at what
point our bias is

changing and at what point tactically we
would be going in into this position

and establishing a short position.

And again, guys, I'm extremely...

honest with you as to what I thought or
what my trades were at one point or

another. So as the price was still
making higher highs and higher lows, my

bias was still to the upside.

And in a lot of cases here in this
trading range, you would see the benefit

that. Obviously, Navadir was such a big
leadership stock in this

business cycle that we've had.

It was one of the best stocks to have
for a companion.

It was one of the best swing stocks as
well.

So there was nothing wrong here, in my
opinion, in this trading range, to still

have a bias to the upside. Because if
you're a swing trader, you're going to

initiate your positions close to the
support.

And then whenever they fail, that's when
you want to get out of those positions.

So even in this upsloping trading range
with higher highs, higher lows, you

could manage being maybe not entirely

right on the long -term buys, but be
right on the short -term buys and still

extract some money out of this.

Also, please note, that because of the
leadership characteristics, because of

the strength that this particular stock
and the group, you know, semi

-conducting group, has exhibited for
years in this business cycle, the

distribution does not necessarily look
like a distribution.

If you look at the first initial
reaction that starts with the buying

after the climactic run, which we
identify in this course as the first

excitement,

Look at the initial reaction.

It happens on three, four days down,
very quick sell -off, but then a very

run -up to the same highs.

So what does it tell us?

Someone's selling, but somebody's still
buying.

Some institutions are still seeing some
value in the stock.

So at this point of time, we're just
noticing this price action, price

development, and we're saying that there
was a change of character in the way

how the price...

was going down on peak volume signature
and how it quickly recovered.

And at this point of time, we would be
thinking that we're going to develop a

trading range.

That's our logic at that time. We know
that we're in the potential phase A,

which should show us a buying climax,
automatic reaction, and secondary test.

So all of these three points are here in
phase A. So again, at this point of

time, you might be thinking this could
be a reaccumulation.

And that's exactly the point of view
that I had when

the market made a high at the end of
January and had a very sharp

reaction into the February low.

Novodea looked very good.

It looked much, much better than the
market itself.

So this is a natural tendency for us to
get to the stock and to

select the stock.

that has those leadership
characteristics during the times of

Then I'm not going to go through phase
B. There are some points that we could

talk about, like a minor sign of
weakness here, attempts to upthrust the

the texture of the price and the volume
signature that suggests that there is no

supply at this point of time. And that
suggests a rally, which does happen. And

it happens in very...

familiar way of how some of the rallies
in the Tragen range developed.

And as we are reacting to one half of
the range and on the next

rally, we are attempting to overcome the
point of upsloping resistance.

We see that there is only a temporary
commitment to the upside.

There is only one bar, one close that is
above the previous high.

and then the price just quickly fails
back into the trading range.

So therefore, the question here is, why
would this happen?

If the stock is so strong, why is it
failing on the breakout?

And we obviously could see that as the
price goes back into the trading range,

there is a gap, there is a downspread
that is increasing, and also

supply is increasing.

Those are all elements of potential
institutional selling. So we want to

sure that we are not necessarily
shorting a leadership stock right away.

There were so many other stocks to short
before that, even before October and

September, that were already in the
downtrend. If you look at some of the

stocks, even if we look at Russell, look
at the September action.

compared to other indices and other
stocks, you could see

that stocks in Russell 2000 have been
exhibiting already the weakness.

So on the first leg to the downside,
this is where you have to be. You have

be in the weaker asset.

But as I was actually conducting...

a presentation for StockCharts .com on
MarketWatchers Live, I actually had this

position. And I've entered this position
on the second leg to the downside. This

was the actual bar where I initiated
this position.

And this type of the positions I always
conduct with options trading.

So I just bought directional options
with

and I have to look it up a little bit
better, what was the expiration.

But usually for this type of short -term
trades, I would have the expiration a

month or two away.

I'm expecting a drop to the downside,
and I'll explain in a second why.

But first, let's talk about the timing.
Let's talk about the selection.

How do we transition from a leadership
stock into the stock that is for sale?

and into the stock that we could short
with confidence.

Well, this whole move right here, look
what happens here.

It's a change of character.

The stock is starting to behave in a
different way.

We're seeing multiple gaps at the open.

We're seeing how the downspread is
increasing.

And comparing this move to the previous
moves to the downside in the same

trading range, this is probably the most
aggressive move to the downside.

Not only that, look at the distance that
it traveled.

This is the largest distance to the
downside in this trading range.

So if they sell, they actually progress
to the downside.

we will be discussing in the second
portion of the course the relationship

between volume and price, or as we would
identify

it in different terms, the relationship
between effort and the result.

So we've seen for the first time that
all of the attempts to push the price

in the trading range were unsuccessful.

And for the first time, not only the
distance...

um that of the reaction has increased
and the character with which it moves

also we're seeing the increase of the
supply signature or rather increase of

downward effort and it's being
synchronized with the downward result

and that's what we're looking for

in the selection of the stock that has
concluded some kind of formation and now

shows to us that institutions are
selling at this point.

So that was the determining factor for
the selection of this trade. Everything

else was kind of very much mechanical,
you know, because tactics are tactics.

They're not going to change.

We're identifying the first leg to the
downside as a sign of weakness.

And then look at the rally.

A very weak rally.

It cannot even come back to one half of
the trading range.

And then it just fails.

So the position was opened on this bar
right at the open

after the price went through the
previous low.

And it was an enjoyable trade just
because it happened so fast.

So from about $236 to $188, that's about
what?

So almost like $50.

And it happens so quick.

One, two, three, four, five, six, seven
days, seven trading days. So a

week and a half.

And let's see, if you are a swing trader
and a short -term swing trader, this is

a very quick profit.

And also think about the leverage,
right? So I'm putting on puts options.

So I'm definitely leveraging this
position.

Now, the reason for closing the position
was that we have made a low,

low below the low of the automatic
reaction.

clearly in the oversold condition here.

The volume signature is not that
climactic, but we're anticipating that

point, we might have some kind of
stopping action.

Why? Well, because selling does not
happen consistently.

There is always some kind of
institutions that are going to find some

the price moves to the downside.

Because if they are holding their
position and they are thinking, well,

here was a leadership, even in this
climate, I'd rather hold on to this

because it's a leadership stock.

Then at some point, as the price goes to
below the point of where they bought or

they thought that there is some value,
they're going to step in and they're

going to stop buying. And we see that
from the volume signature.

So a lot of the conversations that we're
going to have throughout this course is

going to be about.

institutional sentiment.

Where do they find value and where do
they find liquidity?

Those are the two things that
institutions require in order for us to,

they require in order for them to open
the position.

So increasing the volume signature
suggests increasing the institutional

activity.

And we see that there was a move to the
upside.

So some of them were biased at this
point.

There was no reason for me to wait for a
potential trading range to develop.

That was the thought at the time. So the
exit was just at the close.

And initially, I thought that my
analysis was correct.

And I thought that after the selling
climax and automatic rally, we had a

secondary test and we are in phase A and
we're going to continue a trading range

until the next leg to the downside as a
continuation.

Unfortunately, it didn't happen that
way.

The price just tanked and it tanked on
the institutional capitulation. This is

where institutions are just giving up
their positions.

And we must say that there is a
difference between a strong hand or a

hand. There is institutions that are
acting at this point of time as strong

hands and some institutions are acting
as weak hands.

So obviously, capitulation happens on
the selling of weak institutional hands.

And then some of the strong hands are
seeing that there is some, again, some

value that was not there for them at
190, 180, but they've seen some value at

150,

140, 130. So they are stepping in and
they are stopping the price from moving

further down by initiating their buy
positions.

So that was a relatively easy and quick
trade.

emotionally very stable because the
price basically drops.

And that's how it usually happens during
the bear market.

And I really enjoy actually shorting.

It's just that we haven't had an
opportunity to short for quite some

don't mean just short, you know,
specific stocks, but market in general.

Talking about the market.

as we are continuing with the
development of the bearish sentiment.

In this area right here, I had quite a
few calls to the upside, and I'm

totally okay with that.

There are two things that you have to
remember.

It's all about the context of where we
are and how we trade.

And the context here is that As we have
already established, let's say,

a bias to the downside, it doesn't mean
that there are no trades to the

upside that we could exploit, even on a
short -term basis.

So as the market was going down in the
second leg right here, we could see that

the supply is actually being exhausted.

my call here was to the upside.

And I still stand by that. And I thought
that was a great call because the call

was just for a swing trade or for the
rally to happen. And actually it happens

couple of times actually on other
markets, on other

indices that was even better.

So I'm going to show you some of the
trades in this area right here if you're

swing trader and how to exploit that.

But in this case,

A continuation happened after a failed
sprint.

And we'll talk about the sprint and the
definition of the sprint later on, guys,

so don't worry about that.

But it acted as a failed signal.

And a failed signal is probably the best
signal in technical analysis that you

could find.

Why, Bill? Because usually a failed
signal will have a very quick

shift in the sentiment.

where the majority of traders were on
the wrong side of the trade.

And then as they close out their
positions, either via stop loss or

capitulation, that produces a big
counter move to the sentiment that

that. And we kind of see that it
happened exactly this way. Well, first

we are coming out of the apex formation.

So here we're thinking that the velocity
is going to increase on the way down.

you know if uh if the sprint fails and
as it fails it gives us a very very uh

great tactical place to open the
position which obviously i took

um and uh not necessarily was the best
exit right here

and you know i think that further down
the road we could discuss this whether

the wake of trading course or in the
practicum

But I still felt that it was much better
than not to be

exposed to the market at the time when
the bias was so bearish. That's number

one. Secondly, at the time, I had some
long positions, which were campaign

positions or even swing positions, and I
wanted to hedge.

So one of the ways to do that is exactly
this.

You know, you could hedge through
opening the position, let's say, against

of the positions that you have with the
different bars, and that was the idea,

and it worked out somewhat okay,
somewhat perfectly. I'm just kind of

more about the exit here. My preference
would be to exit a little bit lower

right here on this close. Why? Well,
because this bar

shows on the volume signature.

climactic action.

So this was more truer selling climax
characteristic

than on the previous bar.

And the reason why I was thinking now
I'm remembering this is just the close.

Close that had a little bit of the
uplift and that we didn't really

before that.

So I remember that was the thinking.

Also, look at the oversold condition
right here. Even this bar, the exit bar,

has been already in the oversold
condition.

And so therefore, and the volume
signature was relatively high.

It was one of the highest that we have
had. And if we use the analog

of how the price actually stopped here,
there was a suggestion that somewhere

here there might be a stop in action.

So that was the logic.

but definitely could have been a little
bit better as an exit.

So these are the couple of trades that
I've

conducted during this bear market.

But as I've mentioned, there were some
trades that I had on the long side, and

definitely

I want to acknowledge that. That's
number one. I want to explain the logic.

want you guys to understand the logic.
So we'll go through that, and hopefully

after this post -analysis, you kind of
would get a feel of, first, how I trade,

secondly, what I teach, and thirdly and
more importantly, how could we use

Wyckoff methodology to define the
selection and to define the tactics for

A question here from Eric. After the
sign of weakness to the exit at 188, is

better not to operate? Was that the
question,

Eric?

Okay, after the sign of weakness to the
exit of 188.

Okay, better not to operate?

I don't know. It worked out, right? So I
think what happened here is that

institutions started to sell.

And there was not a lot of selling,
actually. If you think about, you know,

this move to the downside, what it had
in terms of the force to the downside,

could see the increase in the supply
signature. But if we would compare it to

the previous attempts, you know, to sell
off, it actually was

less of a force to the downside. Yet,

look at how quickly we're moving to the
downside.

So it means that there is no resistance
for the price to stop at some point and

to react to the upside.

There are no bias at this point. So that
was the logic of the continuation.

Okay, and Eric, hopefully I understood
your question. If not, you could just

react. Let's look at the next case
study.

And this one is Canadian Solar.

This particular stock I have been
stocking for some time.

And I'm going to go through the analysis
first to the point of entry so that you

would understand the logic of why I'm in
this position.

I'm still currently in this position.

This is a campaign position, meaning
that I'm going to hold on to this

for quite some time. I want to...

I want this position to develop into a
sustainable uptrend where not only this

stock, but the group itself and the
peers are going to confirm that we are

in the campaign mode.

And it all starts with phase A, where we
see the final climactic action

with increased spread, gaps to the
downside, huge volume signature.

That represents both increase of the
supply and increase of the demand.

Increase of the supply from weak hands
and increase of the demand from strong

hands. And I will teach you how to
identify those two categories of traders

on the price action and the volume
action.

And then multiple tests, which I'm
putting into phase A.

And then phase B was very interesting.

The whole selection for this trade was
based on phase B. And somebody might be

thinking, who knows Wyckoff methodology,
what the heck? What is he talking

about? How could you define a selection
based on

phase B?

Well, look at where phase B is residing.

It's residing on the top of phase A.

and early phase B, also on the top of
the potential

preliminary support, which happens
before the climactic action.

What does it tell you?

Well, it tells us one thing, that the
institutions bought in into this

and then they didn't want to get rid of
it.

And the shakeout has...

specific characteristics that we will
study and this shakeout happens so fast

it doesn't produce a lower low relative
to the climactic action

it's actually a high low and look how
quickly there is after the capitulation

which is still institutional
capitulation they are thinking in terms

quarters so multiple quarters The stock
is not showing absolute return,

and the stock is not showing relative
return.

What are they going to do if the stock
starts to go down? They will get rid of

it.

They will get rid of the stock from
their portfolios, and this is exactly

volume signature and the price behavior
that tells us that story.

So out of this, we have a relatively
quick recovery, which tells us that This

was just an kind of institutional short
-term capitulation where

a lot of other institutions actually
picked up all of their shares.

And we're seeing multiple tests. By
itself, this low is a test to the

lows in phases A and early B. Then
multiple local tests.

And my point of entry actually was right
here.

So what am I seeing here?

Well, I'm thinking that from this point
on, we're probably going to just go up

into a potential sign of strength, into
phase D, meaning that we're expecting

the price to overcome all of the levels
of the previous resistance.

And then it doesn't happen right away.
There is a smaller shakeout. And one

of the things that... we study is that
type of the behavior.

When you identify the character of the
stock as to how it moves, how the price

moves, and obviously that's all being
based on how institutions are behaving

how weak hands are behaving.

And this type of shakeout is to be
expected as we have seen

before this type of the behavior.

So you should not be extremely concerned
until the price

actually hits our stop loss, which is
below the main low.

So I'm still in this position, even the
local shakeout is happening. I see

positive actions here where there is a
quick reversal of the low where there is

some value, and then there is a test.

So that looks great.

Add to the position here. I just missed
that. But I wanted to have a

confirmation. I wanted to see a positive

position before I start adding to the
position.

So I let this rally run, but this rally
was really great. It showed to me that,

indeed, this is the stock that is worth
my attention.

And the Wycoffian structure,

It's concluding. We are in the potential
phase C, and we have the rally that has

a lot of momentum. And remember, guys,
from conventional technical analysis,

momentum always will precede price.

Quickly losing my voice in New Year.

The next shakeout or shakeout type of
reaction.

is all market related.

It's not stock related. It's not group
related.

It's all market.

Volatility of the market takes even the
leadership stocks down.

So therefore, we just need to assess as
to what kind of damage the market could

do to this particular stock.

Again, we are out if our stop loss is
being hit. There is no question about

that, but it's not.

Instead, we're seeing high or low, and
we still want to stay in this position.

And currently, I'm still in this
position.

The goal is very long -term, but the
logic as to how I'm selecting

the stock or how I'm getting into the
stock or how I'm going through such a

period of volatility is all white
coffin.

All of this analysis of staying in,
adding to the position, or getting out

the position.

all based on Wyckoff studies, Wyckoff
concepts.

And I kind of would like you to see the
benefit, you know, through actual traits

of studying the methodology and, you
know, developing the skill of visual

recognition of all of those concepts.

A couple of questions here.

Okay, great.

I like that the group is active.

This means that we're going to have a
good cycle.

Hold on a second.

All right.

So this comes from Charles. Oh, Charles,
hi.

Just a thought about Eric's comment. By
stopping to operate, he might have

meant, should one have continued looking
for immediate opportunity for new

trades? Just a thought.

Okay, yeah, I could see that point,
Charles. And we're still talking about

Novodea trades, so I'll come back to
that trade.

into that slide, you know, if you have
any other thoughts on that. So I could

definitely see that. And then again from
Eric, in Canadian solar phase B, is

that an upthrust or upthrust action and
what's the difference?

All right. Well, yes, we definitely have
multiple upthrust situations here,

right? So we have a first upthrust here,
another upthrust

here. Another up thrust, another up
thrust. So what are the up thrust? Up

are just temporary commitments to the
upside above the levels of the

and then almost instant return back
under that resistance.

And we're seeing that in all of the
cases, this is what we see.

The price commits temporarily.

and then comes back under the resistance
almost instantly.

Now, the difference between upthrust and
upthrust action, and all of them are

just upthrust action, in my opinion, at
this point of time, is that when

we say that this is an upthrust action,
we actually suggest a specific bias,

which is to the upside. So upthrust
action will be discussed during the

accumulation and during reaccumulation.

will be discussed during the
distribution or redistribution.

We will talk about this more and in more
detail.

And specifically in session number three
and four, we will talk about the

distribution a lot. And I will give you
a lot of the, you know, definitions on

upthrust, upthrust actions, springs,
different type of springs, shakeouts,

so on and so forth. So it's all ahead.

All right, next question.

In phase A, which is the automatic rally
of the first leg to the

intermittent line or the candle with the
weak point into the straight line?

Oh, Eric, what's the question then?

Which is the automatic rally?

Okay, got it. Yeah, so Eric, I
definitely feel that, you know, there is

knowledge behind it, behind the
question. Actually, in my opinion,

There are three automatic rallies here.

Just because we're discussing phase A
that has this testing, this area is a

test, and it's kind of the conclusion of
the testing of phase A.

We had multiple attempts to go down.

So this is of the same magnitude as the
selling climax.

So therefore, we want the test to be of
the same magnitude as the climactic

action.

From that perspective, we might have
multiple automatic rallies. And this is,

again, something that will go into the
detail. This is a little bit more

advanced. So usually this stuff we...

We leave for the practicum, which is the
continuation of the Wyckoff trading

course. And this is a little bit more of
the advanced concepts, but really good

question.

From Justin, Ramon, how do you pick your
entry prices?

So I've developed kind of like a
proprietary reversal mechanism

where I'm identifying specific bars.

that are reversal bars and that act as
what i call a point of no return

this type of bars suggest that a
reversal has happened and

you need to this would be the most
optimal point of entry it's below this

uh points of entry or rather the lows
where you could

have the

the best reward -to -risk ratio.

And these are the points of the lowest
risk.

And as Wyckoffians, we always want to
open the position, let's say we're

the position to the upside after the
reaction, after reaction, after

after reaction.

There are two spots only.

One was identified by Wyckoff himself,
and then the second one we added.

in the Wyckoff trading course.

And again, this is something that we'll
talk about. We will talk in month number

four, in March, April, about tactics.

How do we get in? I will show you the
Wyckoff way, how his logic worked

on the entries and stop losses and
exits.

And then in the practicum as a
continuation, we will definitely talk

you know, this proprietary technique
that I'm going to show you.

All right, let's look at another trade
or another case study.

And this case study is about Shake
Shack. For those of you who, you know,

my analysis and follow us on either
WyckoffAnalytics .com or,

you know, presentations that I
occasionally give on StockTrust .com.

you're probably familiar with this trade
that I've done.

I also have a description of the first
trade on YouTube, so I'm not going to

spend a lot of time on that. This is a
really good trade, a really good swing

trade. This is kind of like a very
typical trade that I would have in the

that is a bull market.

So for the bear market, this type of
trades are not necessarily going to

And you will see this almost instantly.

But this trade was great. It was based
on the idea that the earnings are going

to be having a favorable reaction.

And we're going to have some kind of
push into the overbought condition on

earnings. And the plan was just to get
out of this position on the excitement

weak hands that are still getting into
this position.

Therefore, I want to leverage this. I'm
using options calls.

This was one of the profitable trades in
2018, which was

vastly profitable.

You can see why.

The first point of entry was on this bar
again.

This question as to how do you choose
your entry points, I will explain later,

but as you can see, a little bit
premature entry.

The add -on was much better. It was much
more optimal in terms of the point of

entry. The price was the same, but I had
to sweat it out for a couple of weeks

into the next.

into the next add -on i'm adding here at
the same price because i'm seeing what

is happening here on earnings as the
price gaps down it doesn't really go

much below the low there is only one bar
that commits to the downside and then

there is an instant recovery so by
itself it acts strong after a negative

reaction to earnings

And also, you know, there is a much,
much longer term structure, a trading

that has developed and had a major sign
of strength.

And we are in the potential backing up,
last point of support type of action.

After that, everything is mechanical,
kind of easy. There were some other

where you could add to the position.

Here is one. Here is another. Here is
another.

And then before the earnings itself, you
could actually, you know.

If you are a speculator like myself, you
could create a position even here

with the weekly options.

And it worked out really nicely. I'm
thinking that this is a buying climax,

we're going to have some kind of trading
range at this point.

A lot of supply that is coming in on
this bar. Again, something that is not

necessarily visible to a naturistic eye.

I will show you how to decipher the
volume signature based on the price

to understand that the supply is coming
in at this point.

So I just closed the position, both of
them, and obviously we

see that supply has come in, but
absorption is happening pretty fast.

And that was the suggestion, to still
keep at least a portion of the position.

as a continuation.

All right, so that was the first trade.
But the next series of trades that

followed were in a different
environment.

Remember the market environment from
February, March, April lows, where we

absorption in the market of the supply.

So that was favorable for this trade.

What happens next is not as favorable.

We are in the September.

So we already have some slight
deterioration, yet we are in the stock

the leadership stock, that's number one.
Secondly, that shows a correct Wyckoff

structure, both in the trading range and
also in the

uptrend itself.

And we are at the point of the support,
which I am interpreting as phase C.

I'm entering position intraday on this
bar, which acts as a potential sign of

strength bar, suggesting that there's
going to be a continuation at least to

$70.

And instead, the price just reverses. It
reverses in a specific way.

We're still thinking that the sign of
strength is developing here.

And then a backing up action, a small
reaction.

which should come to the support and
then reverse and continue

to the upside.

And this is where the failure happens.

So this bar right here shows that
failure.

I'm not necessarily closing the position
right away. I'm thinking, well, could

this be that this phase C was not phase
C, but we still were in phase B?

And could this be a potential phase C?

Not a lot of supply comes in, like we've
seen, let's say, here.

So that was the point of the hesitation.

I felt good when the price recovered,
but it recovered to the same levels of

resistance that we've encountered
before.

And once, after the low or high, we have
the next failure, I'm out.

And actually, I think that in my
opinion, and I tell my students, that

good trade.

And again, in your minds, you might be
thinking like, wow, what is he talking

about? Why is this a good trade?

It is a good trade because you give
yourself an opportunity to profit from

a continuation of an established
uptrend.

And if you fail, then you just need to
quickly close that position and just get

out with your risk management.

I'm not losing more than I need to, but
I give myself that opportunity and it

just didn't work out.

The next trade, so if the first trade
was a good trade or the best trade or a

perfect trade, well, not the perfect,
the exit was a little bit premature.

The second trade was definitely, I would
call it bad trade.

So what is happening here? So I think
I'm being emotionally caught up here in

the previous trade.

And I'm playing the earnings.

So entry number five, which actually...

preceded by entry number four.

So entry number four on this bar right
here was an entry pre -earnings. It was

day before earnings.

So my analysis shows that there should
be some kind of positive

earnings. I just don't know what kind of
reaction is going to be to the positive

earnings. In the bear market, the
positive earnings sometimes could

negative result.

And the institutions will be selling
into the strength of

weak hands that are trying to react to
positive earnings.

So therefore, I'm just basically wrong
on this entry.

But I think where I'm kind of proud of
myself as to

how I managed that mistake was by
recognizing

that The earnings day itself has
elements of the selling climax.

We have an increasing volume signature.

We are coming to the point of support,
which was defined already by three

points. So it's a legitimate downtrend.

And if this is a selling climax, then we
could profit from some kind of reaction

to the upside.

Each time when we have a climactic
action, with that increased volume,

spread to the downside, we know that
there's going to be some attempt to go

So what I'm trying to do and compensate
for the loss, which I still have as a

position, is that push to the upside.

And it happened exactly in the way how I
was thinking it would.

I didn't know that we're going to
recover that fast.

This bar was really good.

And here the question becomes is in the
environment where the bias is to the

downside, an attempt to commit to the
upside more

times than not is going to become an
upthrust.

Same here in the same spot.

So once the upthrust develops and the
price quickly comes back,

below the resistance, there is no reason
for me to wait, and I'm closing the

majority of my position.

Now, I left some, and this is just a
negligible

position, but still, I wanted to see how
I would manage it.

And as the price goes down, look at what
happens.

I'm seeing that the selling is
exhausted.

I don't see the same type of selling
that... Let's say we've seen somewhere

off the top.

So this type of selling produced this
violent reaction.

But here, selling is more exhausted.

The supply is exhausted.

And we see that also in the spread to
the downside.

And once we come into the oversold
condition, which we are identifying as

potential stopping action right here,
then I'm thinking that there's going to

another reaction.

And we would be seeing probably a
reaction back into the point of the

resistance.

So you kind of could see that I'm
explaining to you guys how I'm managing

position, even when I get into some
trouble.

And I think this is a very important
skill for us to develop.

And it's not like I'm doing this all the
time.

This is the skill that an advanced
trader needs to develop.

to understand how the structure unfolds
and what are the most opportune points

for us to act upon.

So, again, something that we will be
discussing

during the tactics in March -April
briefly, and then we're going to discuss

it more during the WICA practicum.

This is a very interesting case study on
all of these traits. This is just like

a godsend because it shows to my
students, first

of all, the mental outlook, the analysis
itself, and tactics.

A lot of tactics here with this
position.

And therefore, it's just like in one
example, you have everything. The good,

bad, and the ugly. I love it.

All right. Some questions here.

In Shake Shack, can we assume from entry
two at 42, the price is increasing is

due to no selling.

Supply available institutions have it
all. I would like if you can explain the

volume signature about that entry two,
please.

Okay. So entry number two. Yeah, and the
logic is correct, Eric.

The increase of supply.

shows the increase mostly into the
earnings event.

And after that, supply is still
relatively high on some of the bars, but

goes down.

But not only that, one thing that I want
for you to see is that not

only supply is going down at this point,
but demand is increasing as well. And

this is also extremely important. Look
at the demand.

On this bar and even on this bar right
here, there is a lot of demand on this

bar. Again, something that we will study
in the second month.

But comparing this area and this area to
what we've seen before into the

reaction, we're seeing a definitive
increase in the demand signature.

So what does it mean?

Institutions are coming back. They're
establishing their positions because

see what? They see value.

And also on this type of bars, they see
liquidity.

Liquidity is extremely important event
for them to participate in because of

their size.

They are huge. They have billions and
trillions of dollars. And for them to

a position, someone has to sell in order
for them to buy that big position.

Again, something that we will be
discussing later in the course.

Can we assume if we see an increase in
the volume as each selling climax in the

downtrend channel that the context is
fast price falling and the price is near

to go up to the automatic rally?

Sometimes the questions are phrased a
little bit strange.

So we'll work on this, Eric.

So we're looking at this spot right
here.

So increasing the volume signature, what
does this suggest?

Stopping action, right? So why is this a
stopping action? Well, because the

volume increase usually will have the
increase in both, in supply and

demand. We just want to understand what
dominates at this point.

Supply still dominates the demand,
but...

Demand is absorbing the supply on the
way down, and then it's absorbing on the

way up on the next bars or multiple
bars.

The same happens here.

Absorption of the supply, supply is
increasing, but demand is increasing as

well. Supply is still dominant over the
demand, but that absorption, that

occurrence of the demand.

And then subsequent buying after that,
we see that in the next three bars,

suggests that there is value, there is
liquidity for big institutions that are

coming in, they are buying, and that
suggests some kind of at least attempt

rally. And that's the big distinction,
because if the bias is to the downside

here, then the distinction is going to
be that our trade is going to be just a

rally.

And I think that in this post -analysis,
this is one of the mistakes that I

made, you know, later on with this
particular stock, that, you know, more

here than here, that we are in the
downtrend.

And therefore, all of the trades, even
if you open it at the very opportune

time, which this entry was just perfect,
you have to be faster.

getting out of the position.

So the exit was relatively okay, but
could have been much better. And by the

way, guys, you know, during the whole
course, this is the mentality that I

I don't like when people say that, oh,
you

should not be thinking about perfect
entries and perfect exits.

Well, I don't think this way.

I don't like it this way. I don't like
to think this way.

What I like is for us to study how,
where

exactly we're going to come in into the
position, at which spot and why,

and where exactly we would be exiting
and why as well.

And I want us to concentrate.

on perfecting our skills, not only
recognizing what is developing in front

us, but also developing tactical skills,
execution skills as to where we open

the position and where we close. And for
whatever reason, everything has to be

logical.

Otherwise, do not do that at all.

All right.

Dog is asking.

Could you speak about establishing
reward and risk as it appears sometimes

price support as stop loss leads to
potential large dollar percentage loss?

Yeah, so I'm going to be extremely quick
here, Doug, because this is a little

bit out of the scope. So on your point
of entry, define your point of entry.

Define your point of risk with the stop
loss.

Define the risk itself.

And that's going to be in dollars here.
And then define your target. So for

instance, here, I've defined the target
from the long -term chart. I'm just

showing on this chart, this is where my
target was.

So the logic here was, as the price
exhibits climactic action in the target

zone, I'm going to exit.

And that's exactly what I've done.

If you understand where your point of
entry and let's say your minimum target

let's say $56 and then the risk here is
what?

About like two bucks, two and a half
bucks.

Then you could figure out what's the
potential. So $18 of

reward and then $2 of risk. So what is
our risk to reward ratio? It's

$18.

divided by $2, and that's 9 to 1.

So this is a really good reward -to
-risk ratio, and it worked out very

It's a different risk -reward ratio here
or here, right? So we were thinking

about 70 as our target, maybe slightly
above as an upthrust above that, maybe

72, 73, 74.

We also could use the PNF here, right,
to calculate the potential.

Well, it didn't work out, so it doesn't
matter at that point.

Why getting into the position before
earnings is gambling? Get in after.

This one is from Michael.

Yes, I agree with you, Michael. And I
would say that for beginners and

intermediate traders, don't even do
this.

If you don't understand how to trade
earnings, just avoid them.

Throughout the course, I'm bringing a
lot of evidence to you guys that

earnings are actually a subject of
institutional

bias at the time.

And I'll talk about this in the course.
I'm not going to develop this into a

whole discussion, Michael, right now,
but let's discuss this during the

It's just a big, big topic.

Okay, another comment from Michael. So
between February 6th and 9th, stop by

resistance from the top to June 11th. No
long positions until clear direction.

Yeah, and this is what I'm discussing,
Michael. You know, obviously this was

ugly.

And obviously a lot of the mistakes was
made here.

But my point here is that when you make
mistakes, guys, A

lot of you are, and I see because I
worked with so many traders and so many

students, I see that you're withdrawing.

And I understand the pain. It's an
emotional pain.

And usually as humans, we are just built
this way to survive, to go away from

emotional pain.

And market always has an opportunity for
us, you know.

to produce this type of pain when we are
doing something not by the plan, when

we're deviating from that plan, when we
are misinterpreting what we see. And I

think that's kind of like what exactly
happened here in the ugly trade.

But it's a very valuable lesson to all
of us and to me specifically because I

was trading this and, you know, just a
small portion is still in that trade.

What is the lesson?

Well, obviously, you know, have a
feedback loop into the trading plan.

number one.

Again, something that, you know, we
discuss in other classes.

And then secondly, figure out how to
manage your position.

Even if, you know, you have a loss,
especially with options, you have many,

ways of how to diminish your loss.

That's the way how I look at those
things.

All right, let's go to the next section.

Okay, let's talk about the markets.

And this is going to be really quick
because I just want you to understand

logic, the my logic that I look at the
market.

our Wyckoff logic, which by the way,
each Wednesday, Bruce Frazier, my

colleague, and a great Wyckoffian and I,
we discuss in the Wyckoff market

discussion class.

Each Wednesday, all of our students come
to that class, submit their charts,

which Bruce and I review.

We discuss the markets every time, and
we look at the whole market.

From the sector perspective, from the
industry group perspective, the stocks

those groups, we look at the
commodities.

We have so many case studies that we go
through.

We talk about non -white coffin topics.

Bruce is an amazing storyteller, and
he's been in the industry for quite some

time, since 1982.

So it's always amazing just to hear the
stories from the past and also

listen to his interpretation.

And I'm going to show you three slides
from the last Wednesday class, which, by

the way, you can find the whole class on
our YouTube channel. It was a free

class last week.

And look at what we've discussed during
this class. All of the symbols we put up

so that our students would see what's
coming in our discussions. All of those

were discussed last time.

And currently, we have a promotion for
this class.

You can sign up at $79 a month, which is
regular $99. And this offer is going

to expire this Wednesday.

Go to our website, find that class, sign
up, and check it out. And check it out

on YouTube where we just posted that
video, and it's a featured video.

So what are we looking at here?

Well, obviously, we are right here now.
So I have not updated the chart.

So we are coming back into a trading
range or

above this local climactic action.

Which is a bearish sign or a bullish
sign?

Well, it could be interpreted in either
way, and we still yet to see what's

going to happen. So I'm going to show
you both of the scenarios.

Bearish scenario and analog for the
bearish scenario that I'm using here is

-2008 market, where we also had the same
type of upthrust action.

like a structural point related to the
previous lows.

Then we had a rally, an attempt to
create the new high and a failure.

And even structurally, we kind of have
it in the same way where we see a

as a low or high, then a potential
spring that fails.

And remember that failed signal is the
best signal. So again, potential spring.

and then the failure.

And how did it develop in 2007?

Well, I think in December, the last
December session, which was

December 16th, and we conducted that
session three hours together with Gary

Fuller, which was so much fun. Gary is
like such a great white coffee, and just

a great person, and he's just always so
energetic, enthusiastic.

And if you have a chance, you know, go
and check out his offerings on Wyckoff

products. He is a very, very good
intraday trader. He's a very good

Wyckoffian and Wyckoff experts on volume
and spread analysis.

And Gary and I, we've conducted together
a class on sprints and upthrust. That

was a lot of fun and just a lot of great
information.

Kudos to Gary for doing all this work.

So look at how we go in into the
oversold condition.

So we kind of called that continuation
into the climactic action just based on

this analog.

And what this analog suggests with the
WICA structure that we could be

potentially in the trading range. That's
scenario number one. And that's a

bearish scenario where we could
encounter some resistance at the point

support.

that we've encountered before, and then
just retest, retest, and a trading

range. A trading range like this would
suggest a continuation of the down move

to the downside like we did in 2007,
2008, and also in 2000 and 2001.

All right, let's look quickly at a
different scenario.

This is not necessarily the scenario
that is... preferable scenario for me.

show you another bullish scenario that I
like more.

But I want to point your attention to
two boxes here, two

blue boxes.

One of them comes in 1998.

And obviously we could compare these
analogs based on the

economic environment and where we are in
the cycle.

What I like about the 1998 scenario is
that it produces on a

technical basis an oversold condition,
and that's exactly what we've produced

just recently.

And this oversold condition is very
significant because we have been in the

secular uptrend for quite some time.

So every time we've been in the oversold
condition, we had out of that a very

quick rally up.

And if we're discussing a bullish
scenario, this would be the most

scenario for bulls to have that quick
rally. Why? Well, because if everyone

is so bearish, who's going to sell?

Who else is going to sell if everyone is
so bearish?

The sentiment is so bearish that at some
point, if we are in the

reaccumulation, this whole move to the
downside will be considered a shakeout

rather than a downtrend.

And because of that reason, and I always
look at both scenarios, by the way, and

this is what I teach my students, we
always look at both bearish and bullish

scenarios. But if we're looking at the
instances where the rally is going to be

very fast to the upside, and that's
going to...

have some elements of accumulation by
institutions, then it makes a lot of

that out of the all -assault condition,
institutions are going to cover their

shorts and they're going to see that big
institutions are buying in and trend

-following institutions are going to
also participate in this rally.

So one of the bullish scenarios is based
on this.

diagonal, not diagonal, but expanding
triangle, where

you have different environments in the
structure, where you have the

reaccumulation texture with the price
and the volume showing decreasing

volatility, testing of the previous
lows, and then the rally that fails.

and developed a distributional structure
and then has some kind of short -term

downtrend. Look at what has happened in
the 1960 -1980 trading range in the

market. The same texture.

We have the reaccumulation texture
first. That suggests that from the lower

we're going to have either a sign of
strength or an upthrust. It becomes an

upthrust. A lot of distributional
qualities here and then a short -term

downtrend. And then out of that oversold
condition, we have a pretty good rally.

Well, look at the recent development.

Kind of has a lot of resemblances.

Reaccumulation texture with the
absorption in March, April, May, and the

into the upthrust that develops also
into the local distribution with the

-term downtrend. So the key for this
analog to work is to obviously, make

that if we're going to have a rally,
it's going to be fast and it's going to

quickly bring us to at least one half of
the trading range.

If, on the contrary, the rally will fail
and we're going to have

the retest and the trading range, I
would favor more of a continuation

to the downside, obviously with a small
extra care.

If we're going to have something like
what we've seen in 2016, then this could

be another potential reaccumulation.

So these are the things that we kind of
routinely, Bruce and I, look at WMD

classes again on Wednesdays. The current
promotion is going to be until this

Wednesday, January 9th.

All right.

Let's go to the next slide. And I'm
going to speed up a little bit, so I'm

to slightly disregard your questions,
guys, for now. Let's see at the end of

class how much time we have.

So I just feel like we spent a lot of
time on the trades, but it was a good

segment. So what are we going to learn
in like a trading course?

Well, as I've mentioned, the market
structural analysis, Price structural

analysis is kind of like the dominant
theme with

the Wyckoff methodology.

If you think about what the method
covers, except for the price structural

analysis, and we would be talking about
volume and price.

Volume and price is covered in technical
analysis, so you don't necessarily have

to have the Wyckoff method to discuss
supply and demand.

At the same time, there are obviously
some distinctions.

But talking about the price structural
analysis, what is there for us to

explore? Well, we're going to start with
the change of character. And this is an

extremely important but very simplistic
concept.

And I'm going to show you guys how the
environment changes and how we need to

identify that change in order for us to
understand how the price is going to

behave in the nearest future.

We also, that will lead us to that price
structural environment, whether we are

trending or non -trending. And if we are
trending, you know, what kind of trend

we are in. Then we're going to talk
about WICA phases and WICA events.

So whenever we go into the
consolidation, we want

to conduct a phase analysis.

is all about identification of specific
Wyckoff events and specific

characteristics that belong to those
events that help us to identify the

that help us to identify the timing of
when the price is ready to leave the

consolidation, and also a potential
character with which the price is going

travel. So these are going to be our
goals.

Supplying demand is going to help us out
both, you know, not even both, in all

of them. It's going to help us out to
define the bias and confirm the bias.

It's going to help us out to define the
timing as to when the price is going to

leave. And also, it's going to be
crucial in identification of the

character of the next move.

Now, if the bias is the primary concern
of the beginner, The

timing is definitely more of the concern
of the intermediate trader.

Character is all about advanced study.
And that's kind of like how it is with

the course. We're first going to talk
about the bias and timing, and then

going to switch in the practicum into
the character.

One thing about the character that I
will say, and then I will go away from

this.

Character is extremely important, and in
some cases, students come to me and

they ask me a question. Well, how can
you possibly identify the character of

next move?

Well, you look at the price and the
volume, and it's all there.

In a lot of cases, when students come to
me, if the beginner comes to me and

they ask me, what would you recommend me
to read?

What kind of books?

We have all of the recommendations on
our website, by the way, under the

resources navigational button.

Books that Wyckoff wrote himself, books
that people wrote about Wyckoff method,

and also books on technical analysis.

Those are the books that we recommend to
the beginners.

To the intermediate and advanced
traders, I recommend not to read books.

And my only recommendation is to read
charts because a chart always

has everything that you need.

That statement by Wyckoff where we have
to judge

the market by its own action is a very
profound statement for me personally.

And the majority of my studies,

99%, right now as you know after 20
years of reading the books reading the

articles is all about the charts there
is nothing else so um just kind

of like a side note on that let's come
back to the supply and demand what's

under there that we will be studying
well obviously just the volume and price

analysis itself and the relationship of
the effort and the result those likes

Extremely important concepts.

And then we will go into the details of
the bar -by -bar analysis or swing -by

-swing analysis.

Bar -by -bar is the volume spread
analysis, as you know. And swing -by

analysis is extremely important,
especially in the trading range.

We will discuss the volume patterns of
different WICO phases in different

consolidations, which are accumulation
or distribution. And we'll talk about

only the volume characteristics, but the
price behaviors for those volume

characteristics. And then we'll talk
about historical analogs that I use even

the course for the beginners.

Then our attention will shift to the
relative and comparative analysis.

Relative strength analysis is a pretty
common

analysis in technical analysis.

I'm not spending a lot of time on that
because usually students come well

-prepared, but there are some
specificity and especially contextual

to the Wyckoff method that I'm going to
be pointing your attention to. On the

top of that, I'm going to show you some
of the things that I do or that I

recommend to our students to do in
filtering and scanning.

And we will use something as simple as
StockShot's engine.

StockShops .com engine to identify that
selection and to go through those

filters and scans.

And then our last segment is going to be
devoted to trading tactics and

management. And you kind of have seen a
little bit of the preview with some of

the trades, some logic there.

The logic that I've explained is a
little bit more advanced than with some

the trades. We will be predominantly
thinking about the points of entry,

do we open the position and why, our
regional stop loss and how we move

and then how do we exit and what are the
strategies.

on exit that we could use. We'll talk
about scaling in, scaling out, how that

benefits our risk management profile,
and so on and so forth.

And then we'll also talk about different
tactical scenarios.

And this is more an analytical skill
than tactical skill here.

But tactics are sometimes more useful
than analysis

itself.

some of the trades that I do just based
on tactics rather than analysis itself.

Okay, and as I mentioned before, the
course duration is 15

sessions. We're starting today, so our
last session is going to be on April

15th. The time...

That we're going to spend together is
two and a half hours. So this is 37 and

half contact hours for the whole course.
Again, right now we are at the

discounted price.

So take advantage of that.

All right.

All right. Well, finally, we actually
start in our lecture in the material.

Let's talk about Richard T. Wyckoff
himself.

Who was here?

I think that he was a fascinating
character just because of how his

life unfolded.

One of the most interesting pieces on
Wyckoff I actually read in

Stocks and Commodities, Stella Asoba's
article on Richard D. Wyckoff, which I

believe was published either two years
ago or a year and a half ago.

during the summer of 2017, I believe,
maybe earlier than that.

It's a five -part article. I highly
recommend it, not

as an overview of the method itself.

It probably could have been more in
-depth, although I think that Stella did

good job talking about the method itself
as well.

But it was...

so fascinating to read about the life of
Richard D. Wyckoff.

He was an editor. He was a trader.

He was, you know, an acquaintance to

such big operators as Jesse Leavenmore
or Herman King.

And obviously, he lived in the area when
JP Morgan was conducting his

campaigns. And what he did is he

followed those stock market operators.

And he was collecting the data on their
trades, interviewing them, and

trying to extract their best practices.

um on how they conducted their campaign
and the whole course and the idea of

institutional presence which he called
the composite operator

is just based on his observations of
those people and um it's just

fascinating to think that he had access

sometimes direct access or through the
interviews of just living through that

time and collecting the information on
such amazing traders at that time.

And he codified all of those practices
into the course.

Unfortunately, his personal life was...

somewhat hectic, and he died relatively
young, I think, for our time.

Maybe it was okay back then.

He died in Sacramento in 1974,

34, and after the third marriage, which
failed, and

where his wife took the possession of
almost everything.

And I think that he was forced.

after the divorce and into the early
30s, you know, to create something else.

You know, so his magazine on Wall Street
was taken away from him. His real

estate holdings were taken away from
him.

His family was kind of ruined in a way.
And he had a very bad health at the

time.

And I thought a lot about this, you
know, and sometimes I feel like, you

kind of like, you know.

talking to him, you know, obviously, you
know, from my mind, you know, and

projecting what he would answer to me
and talking to him and discussing, you

know, his life and, you know, what has
been happening during that time. I felt

that he was forced to write the course.

This next, this slide right here, the
course that he has published.

And 31, 32, 33, 34, that's the main
course that is left

for us that is more sequential as an
educational piece.

Now, whenever students ask me, and first
of all, you could find this online. I

believe this is in the public domain
right now.

Whenever students ask me.

Do you recommend to read this course?
For the beginner, yes. But if you have a

chance not to read that course and read
it later, I would rather you do that.

And there is a reason why.

Because that particular course is
somewhat outdated.

And my recommendation, if you want to
read on Wyckoff, read Bruce's blog.

And I've mentioned Bruce already.

multiple times.

So Bruce conducts WMD session with me on
Wednesday.

Bruce is a blogger on StockCharts .com.
A lot of you know that. A lot of you

read his blog.

But for those of you who are not
familiar with his work, please go to

StockCharts .com, find his blog.

It reads as a book.

I'm trying to push Bruce to publish his
blogs as a book.

That makes a lot of sense to me. So
we'll see how that's going to go. But

our students are required to read his
blogs, whether you're going to start

the beginning, and sometimes it reads as
a book, you know, he goes through the

analysis, you know, and there are a
sequence of blogs on specific

that he has or a sequence of blogs on
the specific concepts and so on and so

forth. This is definitely a must -read,
and I would say even before the

Wyckoff course itself.

So you could definitely study Wyckoff
methodology through his blog.

If you don't want to read, come to the
classes. If you want more details, more

in -depth, and more interactive stuff,
then obviously a class would be the

But definitely check out Bruce's
offerings.

All right, let's come back.

Well, Wyckoff himself, I thought, was
not only a great trader, but he was a

really good businessman.

And sometimes people disregard this, but
because I'm in this business, I

understand how hard it is to conduct
this business because you're always

on record.

And as you could see, even today, I'm
showing you the trades and somebody's

going to say, oh, you shouldn't be doing
this or you shouldn't be doing this and

so on and so forth.

So you're kind of constantly being
bombarded by the feedback of people.

And I have a lot of respect for people
who do this job and for Wycombe himself

because he was such a pioneer in this
business. And at one time, he had over

200 ,000 subscribers.

We don't have so many people subscribing
to our current services, I must tell

you right away.

But you know who did that?

William O 'Neill.

And that's why I have a lot of respect
for William O 'Neill as well.

And we know that William O 'Neill, on
the technical side of CanSlim's system,

used a lot of Wyckoff ideas. And we saw
this as a confirmation from the

comments of...

somebody like Chris Katcher or Morales
and other people.

And even when you look at some of the
William O 'Neill trades, not the ones

are breakout trades necessarily, but the
ones that are long -term trades, they

are very much like Coffin.

And we'll talk a lot about the
differences between

the canceling.

entries and exits and Wyckoff entries
and exits.

There is a lot to learn there in the
differences.

You know, I have a lot of students from
counseling that come and actually

really, really enjoying and benefiting
the knowledge of Wyckoff methodology

because. It allows them to be a little
bit more in control on the technical

analysis side of things.

It's definitely more in -depth studies
on a technical basis.

And look what Wyckoff has done. He was
publishing the ticker.

And here, this is so cool, an article
with William D. Gann.

And that just tells you, like, He was
living in such an amazing time for

technical analysis where Dow was
creating his theory, where Elliott was

his structural theory, where Gann was
making all of these

trades and just amazing material that he
was publishing.

And he was living in the times of such
amazing stock market operators.

He later on...

became an editor of the magazine of Wall
Street, just a very big subscription.

And this is so cool to see also Western
Union Telegram.

And then he published quite a few books.

Now, also a question about the books.
Should I read the books? Yes. If you're

beginner and intermediate white coffee,
you should definitely have those.

They are not necessarily the books where
you could extract a systematic approach

to trading, but you will find a lot of
the great advices and some of the

elements on tactics as well. You just
would have to read all of this and

this information from those books.

Again, if you want a shortcut to the
knowledge, then start with the course,

read Bruce's blog.

Read specific books that I'm giving you,
and this is my advice for the beginners

and intermediate traders, by caution,
traders.

For the advanced traders, my
conversation with you is going to be

different, and it's going to be more
about let's put the chart on and let's

about it. Let's analyze it and let's
figure out the way to understand it

So that's the way how I teach.

All right.

Let's talk about the composite operator.

So what is this concept that Wyckoff
talked about, composite operator, or

Gary always would say, composite man?

Well, a composite operator or composite
man is a heuristic.

It's a device that helps us to
understand how the price structure is

formed. and why.

So I'm going to translate this into
modern terms.

We're basically talking about large
institutions as a

group of

investors and traders that influence

the price structure in a very big way.

Because of their huge size, and think
about something like

PIMCO or Warren Buffett or

BlackRock and multiple other huge
institutions, and they could be

hedge funds, they could be banks, they
could be any type of financial

institutions like pension funds,
insurance companies.

And by the way, those have so much
money, and I worked with institutional

investors, and I still do, and it always
surprises me, you know, the size that

they have, the requirements that they
have for trading. It's a different type

trading than retail trading.

So all of those institutions, if they're
conducting their campaign the same

way, They're becoming a big force behind
the buying and selling in the market.

And that's what moves the price.

And that's what observes the supply.

And that's what creates points of
liquidity

where they operate.

And Wyckoff called it a composite man.
And the assumption was that because of

the size, they can dictate.

the potential buyers of the next move,
which is absolutely true.

The more money you have, then the more
you invest into the stock, the more you

control.

So he called it a composite, man. He was
suggesting that multiple stock

operators could be marking up or marking
down the price and conducting those

campaigns. In our days, I am talking...

only about the institutions. I will
mention the composite man or the

operator, and you should be able to
understand this concept.

All right, let's talk about the price
cycle. And we also will go into the case

study on Apple, where I'll show you how
specifically at that spot, Apple was

selected and how the trade was
conducted.

But first, let's talk about more of the
theoretical.

price cycle.

So as we've talked about the composite
operator, I also want to talk about the

difference between strong hands and weak
hands.

We usually would be thinking that, and
this is how we unfortunately were told

or taught, that the weak hands are
always public hands.

This is absolutely not true.

And actually, if that would be true, the
market would have a different look and

a different structure.

The weak hands could be both, public and
institutional hands.

And as I work with institutional, as I
worked with institutional traders, I

tell you guys that institutions are like
us, skin and bone.

They are human as well.

They are driven by the same emotions
that we have.

They have the same brain.

The only difference between them and us,
a couple of things.

First of all, it's their nine -to -five
job. That's number one. So they devote

much more attention to what they do.

Secondly, they have an enormous size, an
enormous edge in how they receive the

information.

And those are the advantages that kind
of...

propel them, in a lot of cases, to the
strong hands.

But every year, in every type of market,
since I started

teaching,

trading, learning this stuff, working in
the financial field, every year I read

the articles that...

over 90 % of all of the hedge funds are
failing to outperform the market.

And that's why the latest idea, and I
love Warren Buffett's idea, is

that you might as well in the secular
bull market just invest into the ETF,

market ETF.

You could make a more selective.

trade like this based on the sectors and
groups, not specifically stocks.

But it's been very, very successful.

And as we know, Warren has won a bet
that lasted for, what, like 10 years, I

think, $1 million that ETFs, market ETFs
are going to outperform. That was a

very low -risk bet.

And obviously, Warren knows a lot about
that stuff.

we could see how sometimes we could
confuse institutions with strong hands.

I don't want you to think this way. I
want you to restructure your thinking

and think not in terms of institutions
and public, but in terms of strong hands

and weak hands.

And then we're going to say that usually
strong hands are going to be the

composite operator.

Composite operator is going to have huge
size.

And the timeframe for the composite
operator is always going to be a

cycle and beyond that.

Think about Warren Buffett and his
average holding period for a winning or

non -winning stock.

It's not a year.

It's not two years. It's not five years.
It's a decade or two. I mean, some of

the holdings that he has had throughout
his career, it's just been there for a

long, long time.

This is the trait and the characteristic
of the composite operator. Why is this

important? Well, because their behaviors
are going to be based on the needs that

they have.

They have a need to establish a huge,
sizable position, and they need to hold

on to this position for quite some time.
They cannot go in today and close the

position tomorrow. It wouldn't make
sense to them at all.

The taxation problems that they will
incur, that's number one problem.

And then the portfolio rotation, that's
number two problem.

And then just generally going in, going
out, as you might know even from your

own trading, is very dangerous because
you're increasing the number of mistakes

that you make.

And these are the things that I'm
hearing from institutional clients that

have, that those are the big things
that...

They pay attention a lot.

Then we're going to have, after the
composite operator, which is basically a

contrarian in a lot of ways, we're going
to have a lot of institutional trend

followers. Those are also big -size
institutions, and they usually look at

market cycle timeframe, meaning that
their positions are probably going to be

beyond a year.

That is going to be favorable from the
taxation point of view.

but they're going to be acting a lot as
a composite operator and jump on the

emerging trend and jump off the trend
once they see the signs of

And they're going to pick up the
timeframe that's going to allow them to

the money for quite a long time to ride
the whole uptrend and then

distribute either on the way up.

during the consolidation or on the way
down, and that's what produces this

compounding effect and big profits that
they accumulate throughout the years.

Also, on the strong hand side, we're
going to have professional traders.

And here under the professional traders,
I probably should mention that there

are pros that are institutional pros.

And then there are retail pros.

Obviously, institutional pros are going
to have somewhat a larger size, but very

serious retail professionals are going
to be having also a good size.

A good professional is not going to have
a small size on equity

just because it doesn't make sense.

With the risk management, you have to
control the risk in a specific way, so

can't commit all of the capital, you
know, to a specific position or to,

you know, a few positions. You're going
to, you know, control your risk and

portfolio risk through some of the
techniques that they have, and therefore

have to have a size. So this is still a
very sizable group.

that is a professional group, in a lot
of cases, they could be strong hands and

be on the right side of the bias.

On the weak hand side, we're still going
to talk about the retail traders as the

public, but we also will talk about
institutional and professional managers.

And I mentioned to you just a minute or
so ago that those people

could be wrong too.

Our first assumption, you know, when we
started studying Wyckoff methodology,

that strong hands, institutional hands
are always correct.

Well, that's not right.

I've seen it myself.

I mean, I've coached them.

I've mentored them. I've taught them the
method. I saw their mistakes.

A lot of them are just, you know, like
us. They just have more time to devote

this craft.

You know, as in any profession, somebody
is good, somebody is better, and

somebody is not that great.

And, you know, the market is
unforgiving. The clients are

So if you not progress with your
studies, understandings of the market

execution, you will be out really fast.

So let's look at the price cycle itself.
And now let's try to understand.

the behaviors of strong and weak hands,
how would they behave at different spots

of the price cycle?

Well, first of all, the price cycle
itself is just a representation of the

accumulation period

under the oversold condition where the
sentiment changes from

bearish to bullish.

that goes into the markup phase based on
the absorption of the supply and not

the availability of that supply by
institutions throughout the markup

then into the area of the distribution,
the area where

strong hands are going to start
distributing the stock.

And that's going to be in the extreme of
what condition and where the sentiment

is going to start shifting like it did
in September, October of 2018

from the bullish bias, a bullish
sentiment

into a bearish sentiment.

And then as this distribution happens,
that starts the markdown, a

downtrend where

On the way down, we're going to see
different groups to capitulate at

points.

And we'll talk about that as well in
more details later on in the course.

Now, each group is going to have
specific

emotional or psychological
characteristics.

And they behave in a specific way.

So, hey, thank you so much for being
here. And by the way, if anybody has to

don't forget that, you know, I'm going
to post this video on YouTube so you

could check it out later. So, yeah, I
really appreciate it, especially for

of you who are in Europe right now or in
the Middle East or in Asia.

I understand your commitment and I
appreciate this.

And I see you. So thank you for that.

So let's talk about that sentiment and
the psychological landscape and the

behaviors.

of strong and weak hands. Well, we know
that in the downtrend, into the

conclusion of the downtrend, into the
stop in action, which will be defined as

selling climax, we're going to have
extreme point of fear and capitulation

weak hands.

Don't forget that weak hands are not
necessarily just public.

They're also institutional, professional
hands.

And therefore, that capitulation by that
big amount of money, that they carry

the equity that they have is going to
produce that quick move to the downside

where they're saying get me out at any
price i don't care i'm done i have too

much overpaying and my clients are on my
back so at that point of time

what this does it creates this type of
action creates liquidity

And it also creates, with the price
moving down, a value proposition to a

composite operator.

And we must say that it's not just
liquidity, it's a high liquidity.

And it's not just a value, but it's an
extreme value on the long -term

basis and the short -term basis.

And that's exactly what people like
Warren Buffett, Jim Rogers love.

They want to come in and they want to
take the stock at the best price and

the best availability where everybody is
giving up in bunches and they're just

saying, okay, I'll take it. I see the
value here. And maybe not in three

maybe not in six months, I will make
money. But in a year or two, as the

develops,

into a more favorable structure.

And as the business conditions improve,
whether it's market conditions, whether

it's an industry group condition, and
whether this

is just the stock -related conditions,
they're just basically saying that long

-term, I see value.

And I see that this is an extreme point.
I'm going to come in and I'm going to

buy. I'm going to establish that initial
position or a chunk of my position.

This is going to be the place where we
will identify on the chart the first

signs of intelligent accumulation by
strong hands.

And then throughout the whole trading
range, a lot of people are still going

to be disbelievers.

of the next buys that's going to come.

So therefore, as the composite operator
is going to buy on average at

the lower price of the trading range,
and that would produce the rallies.

That's going to subsequently retest the
levels of the support and where the

composite man is going to start adding
to the position every time it hits their

buying point.

the sentiment gradually is going to
change.

Those bearers that were actively and
aggressively selling, they're going to

that their trades don't work or they
work but not that great as in the

downtrend, and they're going to give up.

Some of the weak hands are going to give
up their latest

additions maybe or the positions that

they have had.

And they've helped even through the
downtrend.

And Composite Man is just going to scoop
all of the latest offering.

And that's going to absorb the supply to
the point where technically the price

will start making higher highs and
higher lows.

This is where the emergence of a trend
is going to occur. And this is an

extremely important concept.

Emergence of the trend is...

everything that I talk to institutional
money managers.

All of the assistance is basically based
either on the contrarian value

proposition or the emergence of a
substantial trend.

And this is where what I call the
institutional trend followers are going

come in.

And they're going to start
establishing...

their positions, that will push the
price even further up.

The public is still not actively
participating at this point because they

scared.

They just had the pain of a loss that
they incurred throughout

the whole trading range.

So as the price continues to the upside,
this is where they are starting to

become very active. It's in the second
part of an uptrend of the Markov thing.

And because they are getting excited
here and they are producing more volume

and they are sustaining the selling by
institutions that are selling

now into the strength of the weekend.

Once that strength is exhausted, the
selling is going to start producing the

price structure that's going to resemble
more of a consolidation.

And when all of the buyers are going to
be exhausted by this process, the price

will start to deteriorate and it's going
to start showing lower lows.

By that time, the smart money, the real
smart money in that particular position,

and by the way, smart money as I see it
now with all of this knowledge

and experience that I have teaching and
trading and working with people, whether

institutional or retail people,

The smart money definition is only
relevant

to the last trade that you make.

So in a way, it's kind of like in NBA,

a make or miss league, right? So you
always have to be at that

performance level where you're not just
producing the...

positive result, but you were actually
outperforming the index. Otherwise, why

would they give you the money to manage?

They could just give it to the market,
put it in the ETFs, and just be done

that.

So the definition for each of the
institutions always

changes with a specific trade.

And they could be in one trade
representing smart money and in another

they could be representing weak hands.

And Buffett is a good example.

I mean, like look at his, for instance,
the trade in IBM where he came in and

then he had to close out with the loss
and relatively soon as he opened the

position. So even here could be weak
hands at some point of time.

So weak hands at this point of time are
seeing this as a value for the first

time. They saw the value on the way up,
and they were correct here. They were

enjoying the profits.

They saw the value at the points of the
lows at the support level in the

consolidation, thinking that there's
going to be a continuation.

And then they're still seeing the value
even as the price starts to deteriorate.

And this is where everything collapses.

Strong hands are out of the position.

Completely the composite man is out of
the position. Or it's just hedged in a

way that still produces some kind of
bearish sentiment.

And then the weak hands are just
capitulating in the markdown phase.

And that's what produces a quick move to
the downside. No buying

and selling.

And not just selling, not an orderly
selling, but a capitulation.

That's why bear markets are so quick, so
aggressive, and so volatile.

All right.

Let's go to the next slide. And guys,
I'm going to speed up at this point

So I'm going to come back to your
comments maybe a little bit later on.

So here is an example of the price
cycle.

with an Apple stock. This is a weekly
chart.

This is actually not the beginning of
the cycle. This is just a reaccumulation

of a much larger cycle that has started
in 2009 low.

And we're seeing the last reaccumulation
before the distribution actually

occurs.

And we're seeing how after the
consolidation with the bias to the

have a really good markup phase.

distribution after that, which leads us
to the new low in 2013,

accumulation again, and then the next
move to the upside, and

distribution again, consolidation in
2016, and you all know what has happened

here and what has happened just lately.

And you kind of could see that This goes
on and on and on, and obviously price

cycle could look slightly different on a
secular basis for different stocks.

But for this particular stock, you could
take this cycle even from the point

of the IPO from the 1987 to 2003 trading
range,

which was a huge period to be in that
type of range with one huge,

big rally in the middle.

But after that, it's all like that.

This just has been a pattern for Apple.
So our goal is to understand

what is happening in those
consolidations because it seems that

those consolidations that we have the
moves that we want to participate in.

those are directional traits.

Obviously, you could use some hedge.

trades, even in the uptrends and
downtrends as well.

This is totally acceptable if you
understand how to do this. But the

just concentrating on the directional
bias, on identification of that bias, on

the timing of when the price is going to
exhibit that bias or start exhibiting

on the emergence of the trend, and then
obviously on the character of the move

itself. And not only that, During the
whole markup, markdown phase, especially

markup, we are going to have a lot of
spots, a lot of consolidations where

we're going to apply our Wyckoff
analysis, whether it's a phase analysis

price and volume analysis, and we're
going to identify specific places of

timing where we want to establish a
position.

for the next potential swing to the
upside.

And hopefully you guys have seen this
type of trading

from the case studies that I presented
on my trades. By the way, on the YouTube

channel, I have also published quite a
few trades.

And all of my students here, you guys
know that.

I usually discuss my trades. Again, this
is something that I don't shy away.

I think that there should be more of
that.

It doesn't matter whether it's a mistake
or a profitable trade.

What matters is knowledge.

Can we extract the knowledge from any of
the trades?

All right.

So let's look now at the first
reaccumulation box, and let's look at

selection process that we would go
through.

Another slide, I'm sorry. Okay, so
before that, before we do that, a couple

things on this slide.

This is a very old slide. This is the
slide that I created almost 10 years

And this slide was based on Hanks
Pruden.

And I don't know whether it was Hank who
kind of originated this idea. I think

it was actually originally the idea from
the Stock Market Institute.

It's an idea of an action and test.

The only thing here that I added here is
the reaction.

So we have kind of like three things
that are unfolding.

Action to the downside, reaction to
that.

Stop in action on the consolidation.

And then the test of this reaction.

Is this test going to fail and the price
is going to go lower?

Or is it going to stop, reverse, and the
new

trend is going to emerge?

And we obviously could go even into the
consolidation and use the same thing.

We could say that

Selling climax by itself is an action
that is being followed by the reaction

the automatic rally and then being
followed by the test of the secondary

phase A.

Or we could say that, as I told you

before, the downtrend is an action and
then phase A and phase B is a reaction

that action and phase C is a test.

to that reaction, to that action.

And the main thing that we want to
identify within this process is the

testing action.

Because the testing action usually is
going to be identified by us as not just

the testing tool, but also the timing
tool as well.

If the test is successful, then most
likely there's going to be a

of the bias that we think, is developing
during the consolidation.

So therefore, the timing is going to be
identified by us as a

potential phase C. So each time we
identify phase C, we're going to assume

that this is the beginning of the next
major move.

And that's why phase C is so crucial.

Well, if phase C is the low of the trend
or the high of the trend, kind of like

an extreme point of the trend, the
beginning of the trend.

And by the way, for those of you who are
thinking, well, what about if phase B

has a lower low than phase C or a higher
high than phase C?

You could be right in terms of the
actual definition of the trend.

But still, we would prefer to be more
efficient with our point of entry. We

don't necessarily want to enter in phase
B, enter the position.

We want to enter into the position when
the price is ready to move in the

direction of the bias.

So phase C is extremely important, and
so is phase D.

Why is phase D important? Well, because
phase D is all about emergence of the

trend.

And phase D is all about a change of
character that is being confirmed.

From a non -trending environment, we are
switching to a trending environment

with a specific bias.

Talking about Hank, I mentioned him.

Obviously, Hank has passed.

Suddenly, his last presentation was...

In August of 2017, even talking about
him right now, I kind of feel

still so sad.

He was a great man.

He was definitely my first mentor here
in the U .S.,

and I owe him my career, basically.

And not just from the perspective of the
Wyckoff Method.

which I consider him kind of like he was
a guardian.

You know, he was always, he would always
criticize me for bringing innovation

into the method, you know, bringing
something like, you know, those

you know, students call those Romanism,
you know, like new definitions, new

ideas and so on and so forth. He was
kind of like protecting the methodology

a...

very interesting way.

And he not only, you know, initially,
and

together with Bruce, they taught that
class, but I think the first class I

actually took from Hank by himself.

Not only did he taught me the
methodology, but

he also taught me a lot of the business.

You know, in a way,

The community that we have built with
Wyckoff Analytics, it has Hank's

A lot of the things that I've
implemented and our team implemented is

on Hank's work at Golden Gate
University. And I'm just so happy and I

privileged that I worked so closely with
him in the last six, seven

years.

And I've been in his classes. I always
was advising students to take his class,

at least one, at least one.

He was a very unique teacher. And a lot
of the teaching techniques also I'm

taking from him.

Just a very extraordinary person and an
extremely

significant figure in my life, in my not
just professional life, but partially

also in the personal life.

His whole family is just so nice and
still nice to me, and I'm so

sad that he's gone.

But he lives through us, and this is the
biggest thing that we could do for him

and his family, is just to remember him
and remember him in the way how he was

teaching us to conduct ourselves and
conduct ourselves in the markets.

His book, which is called The Three
Skills of Top Trading, is a required

for our students, and I definitely
recommend this book to all of you to

Chapters 3 to 7 specifically talk about
the Wyckoff Method, and those are the

required chapters that I usually ask
students to read. In this picture,

this award is holding.

is the award of the Chartered Market
Technician that he received, I think, in

April, and he passed away in August, so
just months

before he passed away.

And not only he had received it from the
Chartered Market Technician, which is

the biggest technical analysis
organization here in the U .S. and

world, but also from IFTA, International
Federation of Technical Analysts.

at the 2013 conference in San Francisco.

And he definitely deserved it so much
for

the times when the methodology

was not in a good shape for like 20, 30
years.

It was...

not necessarily very profoundly
highlighted as a technical analysis

Hank and Tom Williams, David Wise,

Craig Schroeder, those are the four
big...

figures at that time. And then new
generation of Lycopherans came, like

and we had quite a few Lycopherans came
out of those classes, like Jim

Forte, and so on and so forth. And then,
you know, my generation came, and we

became also, you know, more
knowledgeable about methodology just

So just a lot of kudos to him and the
way how he conducted his life and the

how he was with students.

I just, you know, still have so many
stories about that.

Ditto, Eric.

I miss him too.

All right, let's talk about the case
study.

So this example, we are looking at the
trading range.

before the big move up. Actually, this
is the range. And it's a complex range

because you have a trading range
structure on the trading range

Actually, I was in this trade to the
downside.

Apple was underperforming around this
area.

This was the trade and closed out
somewhere here.

So what does this trade tell us?

That there is no ability to go down. The
supply is not increasing over different

other areas, and that suggests a
reversal,

a change of bias, and change of
leadership, which we see on the sign of

rally. We're definitely exhibiting more
of a leadership over the market. Looking

at the relative strength ratio line, and
this is something that we will explore.

I will show you how to construct it.

show you how to use it. I will show you
how to interpret it. But here we're

seeing that the relative strength is
showing outperformance by Apple on this

rally to the upside.

And if you guys remember the market at
that time, the market only has come to

the high of the resistance and then went
into the shakeout.

And even on the shakeout, we see our
performance by Apple, where the market

creating a low low, and the stock is
creating a high low.

So strength, strength, which is great.

And this would be, based on the relative
comparative analysis, for us, a point

of selection.

Now, there is one minus to what is going
on here, and that is that supply is

suddenly up.

And we know when supply is going up, we
always need a retest.

And we have multiple retests which start
to create a

trading range.

And therefore, when we go into the
trading range, again, the things that we

to define is bias, timing, and
character.

And this is not necessarily the sequence
with which Wyckoff was approaching this

or SMI was approaching this or how it
was thought at Golden Gate University.

This is just what we've created for the
WTC course.

And this is how I teach the material
right now. Those are the three elements

that are extremely crucial to me to
understand.

I want to understand where the price is
going to go, when it's going to go, and

how it's going to go up.

As we go through the analysis of the
consolidation, we are going through the

phase analysis.

And we are also going through the supply
and demand analysis together with how

the price reacts to that supply and
demand.

And we are seeing that supply is
diminishing significantly into the area

looks to us as a potential phase C. So
that defines not only the absorption

of the supply,

which gives us a bias to the upside, but
it also gives us a timing. The time

is now.

Supply is very low. It's in strong
hands.

We could talk about also a short -term
underperformance, which

usually leads to great buying
opportunities within the structure of

price cycle.

And this is something that we will
concentrate on as well.

And then obviously the whole campaign.
And then the next biggest white of

identification for us would be a change
of character.

I actually, I did not trade this
particular rally in Apple,

but I had multiple students back at
Golden Gate.

and in my private practice that were
trading Apple at the time.

I wonder if you could guess where they
exited their position.

Well, before you even answer this, I'm
going to tell you exactly where.

Here, here, and here.

And why do you think that's it?

What would be the logic of getting out
of this position? I mean, obviously,

except for the logic of smaller swing
trade, which... It wasn't. It was more

a big swing trade like this one or like
this one from one trading range to

another, from one structure to another.

Well, their logic was that supply is
coming here.

And my argument with them at the time
was that look at the result

of this supply coming in.

And that's a very, very common mistake.

that students make.

And that's why we're going to study a
lot the result and effort.

This is one of the most important
concepts.

If I would be picking the concept to
teach, whether the concept of the supply

overcoming the demand and the price
going down or a demand overcoming the

and going up, in comparison to the
effort and the result, I would choose

effort and the result.

Supply and demand is a very simplistic
concept.

But effort and the result requires an
understanding and a visual skill of

recognition. And that's exactly what's
happening here. And that's exactly the

mistake that we were trying to correct
at that time.

The key to the exit was a different
behavior than we've exhibited on the way

Look at all of the reactions on the way
up. They are very small.

And even though some of the volume
signature increases in there, there is

absorption on the way up. As supply
occurs, it's being absorbed and the

moves up.

But not on this reaction.

Not on the automatic reaction, which
acts as a change of character.

We see that not only supply is emerging
a

lot, but it's also very consistent.

This is another definition that we've
added to the Wyckoff Trading Course.

Usually, volume is being interpreted as
just an increase and a decrease.

But we could see the consistency of
selling in this area, as we have seen

consistency of selling here and here,
attempt to sell.

And what does this suggest?

In all of these cases, it suggests a
change of environment.

So from the uptrend environment, we are
going into a non -trending environment

or a trending range.

And at least minimally at this point,
you should start thinking in your head,

what should I do?

Should I close out the positions? Should
I scale out? If I'm anticipating a

trading range, is this a very long -term
trend, campaign trade for me? Then I

could probably check out my P &F targets
from back then in 2009, 2010, compare

them with the P &F targets that we've
just recently had in the trading ranges.

So we would be making a decision here,
but that decision would be based

initially

on the way how the price behaves on this
reaction.

And this is the skill and the knowledge
that I'm going to give you guys.

All right, 530.

Let me see.

Okay.

All right, let me see what we are going
to... Let's stop here.

Let's stop here. So what we are going to
do is...

Obviously, we haven't gone through the
whole material that I was planning for

today.

But this is great because what I'm going
to ask you guys, for those of you who

already signed up, is I'm going to ask
you to read and I'm going to ask you to

watch the videos and I'm going to ask
you to prepare for the second class. And

then we will go into the change of
character, accumulation, and the

distribution. I actually like that a
lot.

There is a question. Have the seminar
been recorded?

Yes.

I'm recording it right now, and I'm
going to post it on our YouTube channel,

Wyckoff Trading Method.

So you could probably check it out
tomorrow morning or even late tonight.

My team will upload it and put the
description in. So check it out.

Again, for those of you who are
thinking,

about signing up for this course.

Let me just go to the correct page.

So make sure that you go to
WyckoffAnalytics .com, that you find

Course, and just...

sign up before next Monday, which is
January 14th, to get the discounted

If you have any questions, don't
hesitate to reach us at

gmail .com.

You could find our contact information
on our website and just

address it either to me or to our team
and we'll be more than happy to answer.

I'm available tonight and tomorrow and
throughout the week.

So if you have any questions, you know,
maybe on the administrative side

or maybe content questions, you know,
don't hesitate to contact us.

Meanwhile, students who signed up, I
will email you tomorrow and I

will assign you the homework, which will
be just region specific.

chapters of Hank's book, Bruce's blog,
and watching our videos on YouTube.

And that will be your homework.

And then after the first class, once we
cover change of character, accumulation

and distribution traits, then we will go
into the homework and you'll do the

actual homework.

Well, really great class.

great beginning.

I feel like there is a lot of
interaction from you guys.

So hopefully that's going to just
transition into the class itself.

Let me just see kind of like last
comments here from Doug. Oh, I

love this comment.

My brain hurts.

Great detailed session. Thank you. Thank
you, Doug. And I know that you've taken

classes from us. So you've been a
student. So that's how it is.

Thank you very much. Great information
to consider. I trade commodities. I was

very interested in the program.

So let me kind of address this.

And I think that there was another
question here on Forex. So I've actually

traded Forex for almost five years.

It just was a little bit tough to trade
something like this, living on the West

Coast in the U .S., just so hectic
during the night to stay up.

So I kind of gave it up.

Forex has the same price structure as
other price structures. There are some

nuances, obviously, volatility,
interventions, and then also there is

always the reference to the bad volume
data.

So my answer to forex traders is that
take the course.

Why? Well, because the price structural
analysis is still a must.

You have to understand the context of
where you operate, where you trade. So

that's number one.

Secondly, some of the Forex traders use
volume signature.

So you can do that.

Thirdly, relative and comparative
analysis is still relevant in Forex

And one of my strategies was always
buying the strongest of the correlated

and selling the weakest of the
correlated pairs.

And you could create pair trading like
this or spread trading. You could just

choose directionally which instrument
you want to pick. So there are quite a

things there on the analytical level
that you could use.

And then you could also use a lot of
tactics.

And tactical decisions is something that
you have to develop as a trader one way

or another.

So whenever I talk to Forex traders, I
always tell them that this could be a

foundational course for you. This could
be the course where that kind of like

defines the foundation on which you
build further up.

So consider that.

And the same for the commodities
traders. I actually love trading

I love trading eminence. I've day traded
eminence for quite some time.

Occasionally, I would make those trades
here and there now.

I predominantly trade stocks right now
and specifically options.

But I love trading oil.

I trade gold.

I trade metal sometimes whenever
opportunity presents itself.

So to me, trading is not about a
specific instrument.

trading to me is about specific
opportunity.

And I think when you're becoming more
and more advanced trader, you will

understand that opportunities are very
rare.

Good opportunities are very rare.

And our goal is to recognize them. And
even when you recognize opportunities in

the market, sometimes you fail to see
them or act on them.

And sometimes opportunities come from
very interesting places.

Sometimes you would be thinking, oh, I
trade stocks, I'm not going to trade

other markets.

Well, if you're a speculator and if
you're an advanced trader, then you

consider that.

Sometimes you look at different time
frames and you see how, let's say, a

-term campaign would be much more
profitable than, let's say, swing

intraday trading.

And you should recognize that as an
advanced reader.

So this is something that, you know, we
talked more in the practicum, you know,

with more advanced students.

And this is something that, you know, I
have to bring you to that level.

Okay, great.

Next, comments and some questions here.

Ramon, it would be great if you set a
number to the slide to have the

to our notes.

Eric, yes, for sure, if you are a
student in this class.

I can definitely do that for you.

I'm not going to distribute the slides
for people who are just guests.

This is just kind of like a rule for
this session.

The biggest value is obviously I'm
trying to give to the students who

signed up.

But, you know, once in the class, remind
me and I'll do that.

What are the tools that are necessary to
do the homework? This is a great

question from Justin.

So one of the things that I want you
guys to do is obviously, and I mentioned

this, bring me one file, email me one
file that is

going to be either PowerPoint, PDF, or
Word doc. That's number one, requirement

number one.

Name it correctly so that I would know
that it comes from you and that this is

the homework number one or whatever.

And then thirdly,

You know, as you use these tools, you
probably have to understand how to

the screen.

Let's say if you're on thought charts,
capture the screen, cut and paste

into the PowerPoint, and then annotate
those.

So that's the process.

And we could talk more about it if you
still have some questions.

you know, during the next class.

So I'll explain more how to do this. And
actually, maybe I'll have a slide on

some, you know, usual practices.

All right.

Next question or comment.

This comes from Lynn.

Although Wyckoff method could fit into
any time frame, understanding your

training style is more...

of a swing trading, would the course
curriculum be suitable for position

who mainly hold stock for a few months
to a year or more?

Absolutely. And actually, I kind of
slightly disagree with the way, Liam,

you phrased the question, but I
understand what you're saying here.

A good swing trader should understand
the long -term campaign.

And therefore, I teach you in Wyckoff
Trading Course, a long -term campaign

and swing trades within that long -term
campaign.

So a long -term campaign is going to be
something where we will establish

a long -term trend first and then we
will seek for the short -term

countertrend, which could be a trading
range by itself or a reaction.

within the context of a much larger
trend.

And you have to understand long -term
campaigns.

So if you're a long -term campaigner and
if you're holding your positions from a

few months to a year and more, you
definitely will benefit from the course.

Good question.

From Igor, how do you determine the
strong and weak currencies? So I

correlated currencies, let's say like
British pound to the US dollar.

and let's say Euro to the U .S. dollar.

So there are times when they are highly
correlated and when they are less

correlated, right?

So it's during the times when they are
highly correlated, and you have to

it, and there are sites that would tell
you this, and you could see it from the

charts as well when correlation is very
strong.

It's when this correlation is strong,
this is where you want to use this

concept. And based on the comparative
analysis, just to define which one is

stronger, which one is weaker.

And if you're making directional trades,
just take the trade in the direction

of the buys and use that definition. You
could also

use this for spread trading or pair
trading.

buying one currency, selling another
currency, however you would create that

type of strategy, and then trying to
define the spots where the spread is

increasing, and it always goes up and
down, and sometimes it has a trend of

own, especially when correlation goes
away.

So you could create trades out of that
as well.

So hopefully that explains it.

Okay. Craig is saying that my microphone
is not working really well and that my

voice is breaking up. Is that true for
everyone, guys? How's my audio, by the

way?

I just want to know. This could be just
either on your end or my voice could be

just going down.

And sometimes connection is not that
great. So sometimes too much traffic.

Yeah, okay, well, let me see what kind
of audio we're going to have on this

recording.

I apologize if not everything was very
clear and correct. Thank you for

this.

All right, last question, and then we're
going to stop.

Roman, what's the difference between

Wyckoff Trading Course and Wyckoff
Practicum. All right, so the Wyckoff

Course, think of this as a knowledge.

And Wyckoff Practicum is something that
a student

with the knowledge does not have.

That is a skill of recognition of those
concepts that

you know now.

So I always tell my students, knowledge,

is not necessarily the skill of visual
recognition.

If you acquire the skill of visual
recognition, you will see how the

structure divides, the timing, the
character unfolds.

Now, my next statement is going to be
that even if you acquired a skill of

visual recognition, it doesn't mean that
you can execute it.

So you have to build a skill of
execution.

Those are tactics.

Even if you conquer that, you still have
to conquer the emotional part of

trading, and that means that you will
have to look deeply into your behaviors,

trading behaviors, translate those into
your life behaviors, compare those, and

figure out how you fit into your trading
style and into your methodology and so

on and so forth. And this is definitely
a very, very advanced level.

Whenever I have a beginner or
intermediate trader come to me and they

want to work on my mental outlook, I say
no.

You have to study first the methodology.
You have to be comfortable with the

technical analysis and recognition of
those patterns so much.

that it doesn't distract your brain from
concentrating on your mental landscape

adjustments.

And this is definitely a topic for
another long conversation.

All right, guys, I think that's it for
today. Great session.

Thank you for all of your comments, for
all of your questions. This has been a

blast. A great first session for those
of you who signed up or are thinking

about signing up. I'm looking forward to
working with you.

As you could see, you know, a lot of
material we have to cover in this 15

sessions. So we're going to start
working more next class. Make sure that

have a headset and a speaker as we're
going to interact.

And I'm looking forward to it. Thank
you, guys.

Have a wonderful evening. Bye -bye.