All language subtitles for Secret.Wars.Uncovered.S02E10.1080p.WEB.h264-BAWD_Subtitles01_Unnamed

NARRATOR: 16th of June, 2021.

The eyes of the world are on Geneva.

Presidents Joe Biden
and Vladimir Putin meet face to face

for the first time
as leaders of their countries.

They will discuss issues including
cybersecurity, nuclear arms control

and the Kremlin's position
on the conflicts

in Ukraine, Syria and Afghanistan.

Since Biden took office
in January 2021,

tensions between the two countries
have been stretched

to breaking point.

- In many ways, after all,
the Cold War was never ended.

When Putin came back
and when Russia reasserted itself,

then actually all that happened
in many ways

was that the old Cold War
was restarted.

NARRATOR: In 1985,
Geneva was the location

for another historic summit.

President Ronald Reagan
and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev

met at the height of the Cold War
to try and de-escalate tensions.

- The differences between America
and the Soviet Union

are deep and abiding.

It's difficult for us to understand
the ideological premise

that force is an acceptable way
to expand a political system.

NARRATOR: 36 years later,
the Biden-Putin summit

bears remarkable similarity
to the Reagan-Gorbachev meeting.

This time the key underlying issue
is not nuclear weapons

or the advent of America's
Strategic Defence Initiative,

but the growing influence
of their fellow superpower..:

China.

- There are some who argue that
Xi Jinping wants China

to be a regional power,
a regional hegemon.

There are others who argue that he
has much more of a global ambition.

What we can say at this point
is that Xi Jinping

is probably taking advantage of
the idea

that America is a declining power.

NARRATOR: Since 2010,

China has been the world's second
largest economy

and it is expected to surpass
the United States by 2030.

In recent years, US friction with
China and Russia has intensified,

due to economic and technological
conflict,

and massive military build-up
of the two nations.

These confrontations have led to
the Kremlin and Beijing

forging a close alliance to try
and isolate America and its allies.

- We are not seeking a new Cold War

or a world divided into rigid blocs.

NARRATOR: Did the Cold War really
end the division of the world

or are we now facing the emergence
of a New Cold War,

even deadlier than the last?

TRANSLATOR: A week ago,
a country stated in this hall

that it does not seek a new Cold War

and it has no intention
of creating division.

We hope that this public
pronouncement

made before the whole world
will be shown in action.

NARRATOR: Mistrust between
East and West

has grown since the end of
World War Two.

In May 1945, the world was
celebrating German surrender,

but British Prime Minister
Winston Churchill was ill at ease.

He was concerned that Soviet leader
Joseph Stalin

would take advantage of
the withdrawal of American troops

to expand his dominance
in Eastern Europe.

To counter it, he devised
a top-secret plan

to attack the Soviets -
Operation Unthinkable.

- Operation Unthinkable was
Churchill's plan

to push the Soviets out of
occupied East Germany

and back beyond their previous
borders if they needed to.

It would have been a mass
preponderance of force

that not only involved the British
and the Americans,

but also the Polish and the Germans;

bringing the Germans onside to push
the Soviets out of their territory.

NARRATOR: But Stalin discovered
the secret plan

thanks to his Soviet spy network.

- This could well have been
a result of what is known as

the Cambridge Five, named after
their place of recruitment,

Cambridge University in the 1930s,

a group of influential British
figures who were converted Marxists

sympathetic to the Soviet Union.

NARRATOR: The Cambridge Five
managed to infiltrate

the British Foreign and War Office,

its intelligence services
and its embassy in Washington,

informing the Soviet Union of
Western state secrets

until the early 1950s.

Tensions between East and West
were further aggravated

by the birth of the Communist
People's Republic of China in 1949,

under Mao Zedong.

In the first decades of Mao's China,

the nation faced
extreme difficulties.

At least 20 million people died
in the Great Famine

between 1958 and 1962.

Reforms imposed in 1961 succeeded
in stabilising the situation,

but the repression of the Cultural
Revolution launched in 1966

brought the economy to a standstill
once again.

As the Chinese regime struggled
to industrialise and expand,

the United States and the Soviet
Union established themselves

as the world's dominant superpowers,

fighting proxy wars

over spheres of influence
across the globe.

- We saw the threat of war,
that constant threat of war,

and we saw proxy wars
that were carried out

in Vietnam, Angola and elsewhere.

- So much of the Cold War
was fought by proxy

rather than by direct confrontation
between the two powers.

NARRATOR: The Americans and Soviets
were careful

to avoid direct confrontation,

preferring instead to fund
competing militias

in South and Central America,
the Middle East and Indochina.

Millions died in these proxy wars
in over four decades of conflict.

Having become a nuclear nation
in the mid-1960s

and by supporting communism in proxy
wars in Africa and Central America,

China's influence gradually grew
on the world stage.

Soon after Mao's death in 1976,

the "sleeping giant" began
to awaken.

The new leader, Deng Xiaoping,

promoted a series of
economic reforms

to open up the Chinese market to
foreign trade and investment

that would give it the resources
it desperately needed to expand.

During the 1980s, while China was
reinventing its economy,

the Reagan administration
was stepping up

its anti-communist rhetoric.

The Soviets, meanwhile,
were slipping into economic decline.

The bipolar world, dominated by
the USA and the Soviets for so long,

was faltering, and the emergence of
the Americans as a hegemonic power

was just around the corner.

- Mr Gorbachev, tear down this wall!

(cheering)

NARRATOR: The arrival of Mikhail
Gorbachev to the Kremlin in 1985

prompted profound political and
economic reform in the Soviet Union,

as he sought to change its fortunes.

His plans meant an opening up of the
regime to dialogue with the West,

in pursuit of inward investment.

- Mikhail Gorbachev's policies
of glasnost and perestroika

were also vitally important
for easing tensions

between the West and the East
in the Cold War.

NARRATOR: While glasnost
and perestroika tried to improve

the Soviet Union's economy
in the short term,

they ended up accelerating
its demise.

As the other Eastern Bloc nations
chafed against Gorbachev's reforms,

the ties that previously bound
the Soviet empire together

began to unravel.

- When you think of Ronald Reagan
at the wall,

saying, "Mr Gorbachev,
tear down this wall,"

that was probably the height of
American power

in the late-20th century.

So you have to think about
that moment

and what came after.

It turns out that the post-Cold War
became a much more complex world.

NARRATOR: In 1989, just as the sun
was setting on the Soviet empire,

communist China was experiencing
the biggest wave of protests

since the birth of the People's
Republic in 1949.

On May 15th that year,

Mikhail Gorbachev arrived in Beijing
for the first Sino-Soviet summit

since the rupture of relations
between the two communist giants

in 1959.

The summit meant the restoration of
relations between the two countries,

just as the influence of communism
on the world stage

seemed to be on the wane.

The changes implemented by Gorbachev
in the USSR

inspired more than a million
demonstrators

to gather in Tiananmen Square

at the time of the Soviet leader's
visit.

This was the largest mobilisation of
a protest movement

in China's history.

The protests spread to other cities
across the country,

and in the last weeks of May,

martial law was imposed in Beijing.

Chinese Army troops were also
deployed throughout the city;

but the people gathered in the
square remained there defiantly.

Eventually,
on the night of June 3rd,

the Chinese Army was ordered
to disperse the protestors

in Tiananmen Square
by any means necessary.

Tanks and heavily armed troops
confronted the demonstrators.

The repression was brutal and
clashes ensued into the next day.

Even today, it is not known exactly
how many people died

as Chinese authorities have never
released an official figure.

- In that massacre was
the determination,

the final decision that China would
keep its Leninist-Marxist state

and have a hybrid economy.

NARRATOR: As China reaffirmed
its communist credentials,

the USSR was beginning to crumble.

In October 1990,
several Soviet republics

declared their independence,

and on December 21st 1991,

the Soviet Union was formally
dismantled.

The Cold War was over

and the United States proclaimed
victory.

- The end of the Soviet Union
was seen by many

as the herald of a new era,

which would either be
an era of friendship

between America and Russia,

or just simply the era of one
single superpower,

the United States being dominant
in the global hegemon.

Well, it turned out that neither of
those was really true.

America actually began
at that point

a slow decline from Imperial status.

And although Russia at first
certainly professed a desire

to have much, much warmer relations
with the United States,

from the first it was clear that
the interests of these two countries

were different.

- The post-Cold War period is
characterised by religious conflict

in the Middle East,

by the war on drugs
in Latin America,

the emergence of terrorism
as a significant force worldwide,

and by a United States that tried
to deal with all of these.

NARRATOR: Gorbachev's successor,
Boris Yeltsin,

sought to strengthen Russia's
relationship with the West.

But differences over issues
including NATO expansion

and US intervention in the Balkans
and Iraq,

ended up pushing Russia towards
China, India and Iran.

At the turn of the century, a new
threat to the West emerged -

Islamic extremism
in the shape of Al Qaeda.

(screaming)

NARRATOR: After the terrorist
attacks of September 11th, 2001,

George W Bush's administration
swiftly launched the War on Terror.

The United States...will hunt down

and punish those responsible
for these cowardly acts.

(screaming)

NARRATOR: The magnitude of the 9/11
attacks on American soil

was unprecedented.

Bin Laden, the Saudi-born leader
of Al-Qaeda,

was now the most wanted man
in the world.

- (speaks own language)

NARRATOR: Faced with
the Taliban's refusal

to hand over Bin Laden,

on the 7th of October 2001,

US forces invaded Afghanistan.

While China took a neutral position
in the conflict,

Bush had the support of
an unexpected ally -

Vladimir Putin's Russia.

Russia provided the United States
with intelligence information.

Putin also supplied helicopters
to the new Afghan government,

which was fighting the Taliban
alongside the US.

In return, Russia sought closer
relations with the West

and for the United States to support
their efforts

to suppress Islamic
terrorist groups in Chechnya.

But the new-found friendship between
Russia and the United States

would not last long.

On March 19th, 2003,

the United States invaded Iraq,

having accused Saddam Hussein

of harbouring weapons of
mass destruction.

Russia and China, whose oil
companies had contracts in Iraq,

opposed the intervention.

By the end of 2003, the American-led
international coalition

had captured Saddam Hussein
and brought down his government.

As US interference
in the Middle East increased,

it imperilled its economic
ascendancy

over the rest of the world.

- When you look at the American
experiments overseas

after the Reagan administration,

you essentially have to look at
some major foreign policy failures.

Maybe the last US foreign policy
victory was the invasion of Panama,

with the ousting of
Manuel Antonio Noriega.

But then after that, the US began
its experiments in the Middle East,

beginning with the first war
of Iraq,

followed by the enormous presence of
the US in the Middle East

throughout the 1990s and of course
over the last 20 years.

NARRATOR: With billions spent
in Afghanistan and Iraq,

by the end of 2007,
the United States was also facing

an unprecedented economic collapse -

the Great Recession.

Russia and China took advantage of
the American malaise.

- When you think about the struggles
to win the war

in Afghanistan and Iraq,

that undermines America's position
militarily around the world.

When you think about the economic
collapse, in 2007-08,

that questions the American
economic model.

China, Russia
have all benefited from that.

NARRATOR: Vladimir Putin's
administration

had significantly improved
the Russian economy

while China recorded
unprecedented growth

during the first decade
of the 2000s.

By 2010, China had become the second
largest economy on the planet.

- We're at a very, very important
moment in global history

where we can see rising power
in terms of China,

we can see potentially a declining
power in terms of the USA.

And China may well take advantage
of that.

NARRATOR:
With China's new economic might

came its resurgence
onto the world stage.

The techniques the new superpower
was using to influence geopolitics

were vastly different
and more sophisticated

than the blunt instruments
of the Cold War.

- China has recently tried its hand

at soft power
and economic diplomacy.

In particular, it's been focusing on
areas like Africa and Latin America,

taking advantage of hostile
and long-running tensions

between the United States
and those nations,

and using that to build new
footholds to expand its influence

around the world.

NARRATOR: The Chinese
soft power has grown exponentially

thanks to the One Belt, One Road
initiative.

Revealed for the first time in 2013
by President Xi Jinping,

the One Belt, One Road initiative

is a diplomatic and commercial
policy

based on five principal values -

mutual respect for sovereignty
and territorial integrity,

mutual agreement on non-aggression,

mutual agreement on non-intervention
in internal affairs,

equality and mutual benefit,

and peaceful coexistence.

This initiative has successfully
managed to expand

the Chinese sphere of influence
worldwide.

- One of the things that
the West has finally realised

is a significant challenge
to the West

is the One Belt, One Road initiative
that China has embarked on,

this extraordinary programme
that Xi Jinping has admitted

is not going to be completed
in his lifetime.

What's fascinating about that is the
way that China is increasingly

locking countries into trade
relationships

as it seeks not just markets,
but actually more importantly,

for China, natural resources.
It needs energy resources.

So it's very cleverly building up
client states,

not just in Asia, in Africa,
in the Middle East.

We can see it doing that
in Latin America as well.

NARRATOR: While China increased
its sphere of influence worldwide,

Russia was looking to re-establish
its influence in the areas

that were once part of
the Soviet Union.

But its means of doing so would be
deeply unsettling to the West,

as the old wounds of the Cold War
began to re-open.

NARRATOR: After the terrorist
attacks of September 11th, 2001,

the world seemed united
against terrorism.

But the deep divisions
between Washington and Moscow

which emerged due to the US invasion
of Iraq in 2003,

would continue to grow.

And in 2004, the US-backed
incorporation of the Baltic nations

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia
into NATO

proved a critical turning-point.

- NATO expanded,
and the Russians didn't like it.

And although attempts were made
to provide Russia

with a few, frankly, pretty cosmetic
ways of influencing NATO,

basically, it's an alliance
in and of itself.

For the Russians, they say,

"Look, NATO has no function other
than to be an anti-Russian force."

NARRATOR: In April 2008, the
accession of Georgia and Ukraine

to NATO was delayed,
due to Russian opposition.

- President Putin had long resented
any attempts by NATO or the EU

to expand into its former
Soviet zones of influence.

And so as Georgia set to join NATO
from 2007-2008,

this is something that Putin wants
to express

that he just would not stand for.

NARRATOR:
Russia responded to NATO's expansion

by distributing Russian passports

in the Georgian separatist regions
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Georgia responded by attacking
Russian separatist groups

in the region.

On August 7th, 2008,
Russia invaded Georgia

and began a bombing campaign
of the disputed areas.

Georgian troops retreated
as the West called for a ceasefire.

- All Russian troops and any
irregular and paramilitary forces

that entered with them
must leave immediately.

NARRATOR: With its invasion
of Georgia,

Russia had sent a clear message
to former Soviet republics

seeking closer ties with the West.

- It's a warning to those parts of
the former Soviet Empire

that they're not entirely free of
Mother Russia

and that Mother Russia,
the Great Bear, is still there.

- It's argued that if NATO and
the US had acted more robustly

in reaction to Russia's advances
into Georgia,

then you might not have had
the annexation of Crimea

six years later.

(banging shields)

(protestor shouts)

NARRATOR: In February 2014,

a popular uprising removed
Russian-backed Ukrainian President

Viktor Yanukovych from power.

The response was immediate
and deadly.

Russia invaded and the Crimean
Peninsula was annexed

to its territory.

- In many ways, the Russian invasion
of Georgia served as a testbed

for what would later come
with Crimea.

Various weapon systems
were tested for the first time,

along with shock tactics and
cyber warfare techniques.

New methods of causing confusion
amongst the populace

were experimented with and later
honed not just for the Crimea,

but more broadly against Ukraine
as a whole.

NARRATOR: In Georgia,
the Russian military

launched the latest new
weapon in its arsenal...

Cyber attacks.

Several Georgian networks and
servers suffered failures

which hampered communication systems
and access to information.

- From the crippling of online
banking systems

to the crashing of government
websites,

the cyber attacks lasted for weeks
and weeks.

NARRATOR: Russian intelligence
services were also accused

of launching cyber attacks
against Ukraine

in the build-up to its invasion
of Crimea.

- The key to this is,
it's hybrid warfare,

so it stopped short of the tanks
rolling in.

Article Five of the NATO charter

is a mutual defence arrangement.

An attack on one is an attack
on all.

But is a cyber attack an attack?

It certainly is,
but it's not quite the same.

And so responding to these
has proved very, very difficult

for Western democratic countries.

(crowd chanting)

- Putin wants his empire back.

On the other hand, the European
Union and the United States

has also been quite clear
with Russia

that a line has got to be drawn
and this far, no further.

The difficulty, it seems to me
with this,

is that it may be a wise policy,

but it also leaves the prospect of
Vladimir Putin's disruption

to continue at a low level
just to say to the West,

"You haven't actually won
the Cold War."

NARRATOR: The West responded to
the invasion of Crimea

by imposing sanctions on Russia.

They were the toughest measures
taken against the country

since the end of the Cold War,

and heralded a new policy
in Washington.

- Europe and America are united

in our support of
the Ukrainian government

and the Ukrainian people.

We're united in imposing a cost
on Russia for its actions so far.

NARRATOR:
After Russian acts of aggression

against the former
Soviet republics,

relations between Russia and
the United States have plummeted.

- We never really settled
the Cold War.

We just had a period we could
pretend that it wasn't happening

because Russia was relatively weak.

Now that Russia has found ways of
rebuilding its strength

and projecting its strength
in a symmetric form,

now we have to come to terms
with the fact

that we never properly resolved
that old conflict.

NARRATOR: Just as during
the last Cold War,

Russian and American interests
clashed in conflicts abroad.

In the Syrian Civil War
which broke out in 2011,

Russia supported the government of
Bashar al-Assad,

while the Americans supported
the opposition rebel groups.

- What we now see with
all the various wars,

whether it's in terms of the war
in Georgia,

whether it's the annexation
of Crimea,

whether it's the conflict
in the Donbas

and more recently, the Russian
intervention into Syria,

the Russians believe they are just
simply defending their interests

against the West that is trying
to undermine and marginalise them.

NARRATOR: It is not just
foreign meddling in proxy wars

that has highlighted the revived
tension between East and West,

but a dramatic escalation of events
in 2018

highlighted how far Russia would go
to reassert its power.

- During the weekend of the 4th of
March, 2018, in Salisbury,

the former Russian spy Sergei
Skripal and his daughter Yulia

were poisoned with a military-grade
nerve agent

of the type developed by Russia,

part of a group of nerve agents
known as Novichok.

NARRATOR: The attack led to
accusations, ultimatums

and the expulsion of Russian
diplomats around the world.

In addition, more economic and
diplomatic sanctions against Russia

were imposed by the United States
and some European countries.

- Putin's willingness to use
assassination as a political tool

shows once and for all that
any nostalgic idea

that the Cold War was won

and ended with the implementation of
democracy in Russia...is misplaced.

Putin has re-established a firm,
autocratic control in Russia,

unwilling to abide by international
laws and norms.

Furthermore, the use of
assassination in this way

has further increased tensions
between the West and Russia,

with retaliation coming in the forms
of sanctions,

and then those sanctions causing
Russia to find other ways

to boost its economy
and to bring in resources.

NARRATOR: As friction between
the West and Moscow increased,

so did hostilities between
the United States and China,

especially after the arrival of
Donald Trump in the White House

in 2017.

The following year, Trump began
a trade war against the Chinese.

- The Trump administration
in particular understood

that there had to be potentially
a firebreak,

where there had to be a moment
where the West stood up to China

and said, "We understand
what you're doing,

you have a right
to develop economically,

but we have to do this
on equal terms.

- We've lost 70,000 factories

since China joined
the World Trade Organisation.

You've seen that,
you've heard about it. 70,000.

- One reason scholars and
politicians have liked to use

the idea of a new cold war
to explain the competition

between the United States and China

is because this competition
is not just economic or military.

But also at its heart is
an ideological competition

of two different ways of seeing
and organising the world.

While the United States champions
free liberal democratic capitalism,

for China, it is a centralised,
autocratic hybrid

between capitalism and communism.

- Socialism with
Chinese characteristics

is effectively capitalism, almost in
as pure a form as you can get,

in that it is about,
we want access to your resources

and here is the money.

there are no liberal values.

There are no liberal international
structures around that,

it's a straightforward relationship.

NARRATOR: The success of the Chinese
One Belt, One Road initiative

has changed the face of the global
trade and diplomatic world.

With ties between Russia and China
growing closer

and the decline of American power
becoming ever more evident,

how will this new Cold War
affect us?

NARRATOR: With their trade war
against China still unfolding,

the United States accused
President Xi's regime

of military and commercial
cyber espionage.

- There's a long history,
decades-long history

of Chinese intellectual property
theft,

including against technologies.

NARRATOR: In 2019,
the United States government

accused Chinese tech company Huawei
of industrial espionage

on a massive scale and claimed
its devices were a danger

to American national security.

Huawei was banned
in the United States,

and some countries, such as the UK,

were asked not to adopt the Chinese
company's 5G technology.

- For the United States, they see
the adoption of Chinese technology

linked to the Chinese government
itself

as an unacceptable security risk,

and have put significant
political pressure on the UK

not to adopt these networks.

- We want trade deals not to be
national security deals

under a patina of commerce.

NARRATOR: As Sino-US relations
deteriorated further,

on October 1st, 2019

China commemorated
the 70th anniversary

of the founding of the People's
Republic

with a spectacular military parade.

This revealed its expanded
new military capabilities

to apprehensive onlookers
in the West.

Today, China has the largest navy
in the world

and has consolidated
its military strength

with the construction of
new missile silos

and the testing of a possibly
game-changing

hypersonic weapons capability.

- Mike Pompeo, the former Secretary
of State under Trump,

declared China as the most dangerous
threat to the United States,

because what it really offers is
a different way

of interacting with the world
and a different global order.

NARRATOR: The diplomatic and
commercial ascent of China

through its One Belt, One Road
policy

has threatened US hegemony,
just at the moment

that its relations with Russia
reached their lowest ebb.

As Joe Biden was sworn in

as the 46th President of
the United States in 2021,

his most pressing foreign policy
engagement

was a meeting with Vladimir Putin.

- I'm heading to the G7,
then to the NATO Ministerial

and then to meet with Mr Putin,

to let him know what I want him
to know.

NARRATOR: In June 2021,

in an attempt to iron out
their differences

and establish the basis of
a new relationship,

Putin and Biden met in Geneva.

While Russia and China have
developed multilateral co-operation

and also fought against
the US influence in Central Asia,

the two nations' interests
have recently clashed.

Disputes have emerged over the area

composed of former Soviet republics

Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,

Turkmenistan, Tajikistan

and Kyrgyzstan.

Historically, Russia has been
the principal commercial partner

of the region, but as China's growth
expands through Central Asia,

Russians have seen their influence
waning

and concerns have been raised
in Moscow.

- Xi Jingping has made it clear that
he wants to rebalance the economy.

He wants to move from an export-led
economy to an internal economy.

Simultaneously, it's also clear that
he has a foreign policy agenda.

It's a very interesting time when
we think about China,

in the sense of we assume it's going
to become this dominant superpower,

replacing the United States
of America.

NARRATOR: What is clear is that
China now represents

a far greater threat to the West
than to Russia,

with whom they have common areas

of strategic economic
and military interest.

- It's convenient for them both
to be disruptors

of the political system globally.

We can see that in the way
that Russia operates,

we can see that occasionally
in the way that China operates.

So it's very much
a marriage of convenience

rather than one in which
they are equal partners.

NARRATOR: One example is
the combined Sino-Russian interest

in the Arctic, where Russia,
in particular,

retains a strong military
and strategic interest.

- Look up to the Arctic,

where you start to see broader
Russian remilitarisation

of that strategically important and
economically vital bloodline,

which has vast amounts of natural
gases and oils and fossil fuels,

but it's also a whole new trade
route for the world.

As ice melts
due to climate change,

the Northern Sea route,

which runs across Russia's northern
Arctic coastal rim,

can reduce trade times,
shipping movements,

between Asia and Europe
by up to ten days.

So that saves time
and it saves fuel.

NARRATOR: Over the next few years,
China also plans to construct

a Polar Silk Road and make full use
of the Arctic and Antarctic regions.

Both China and Russia are determined
to do whatever it takes

to keep America out of it.

- This is another point at which
the superpowers, the global powers

who are rising up against each other

will come to loggerheads.

The Chinese have an interest there
with the Polar Silk Road initiative

and they're working with
the Russians.

But the Americans also see this
as a point of contention.

They are also an Arctic state.

And so it's here that you're likely
to see contests

between the great powers.

NARRATOR: The results of
the Biden-Putin meeting

were inconclusive and failed to
bring about a significant thaw

in the relations between Washington
and Moscow.

Months after the summit,
in August 2021,

US troops withdrew from Afghanistan.

After 20 years of US intervention,

the Taliban immediately returned
to power,

further damaging
America's credibility.

- The major concern, of course,
is that after 20 years

nothing will change from pre-9/11.

We're already seeing part of
the consequences

internal to Afghanistan.

(clamour)

- We went back to where
everything started.

So now you can simply think
what has been achieved in 20 years

is a question mark.

NARRATOR: The chaotic
withdrawal of US forces

from Afghanistan was reminiscent of
the withdrawal from Saigon

at the end of the Vietnam War,
over 40 years earlier.

To the watching governments
in Moscow and Beijing,

it highlighted the decline of
the United States

as a hegemonic military power
in the world.

The position of the Cold War victors
now hangs in the balance.

Russia and China have managed
to substantially increase

their international influence

and effectively challenge
the once-untouchable United States.

- It's still not known exactly what
US ambitions are for the future.

There's been lots of inconsistency

between the Obama, Trump and Biden
administrations.

But there are those who are talking
about a US foreign policy

based on realism and restraint.

The argument here is that the US
will do away with its pursuit

of a liberal hegemony,
pursuing a remaking of countries

with American liberal values,

and will instead just seek
to prioritise US national interests

and the maintenance of US power.

The questions for the future
are whether or not

the US would stick up for a Georgia
or a Ukraine again,

or whether or not the US
will sacrifice its best in a fight

to protect places like Taiwan
against the Chinese.

These are the questions
for the future.

NARRATOR:
Focused on internal issues,

the Americans are calling for
greater international co-operation

to confront the new threats
from the Sino-Russian partnership.

- We're not seeking...
I'll say it again.

We are not seeking a new Cold War...

..or a world divided
into rigid blocs.

The United States is ready to work
with any nation

that steps up and pursues
peaceful resolution

to shared challenges,

even if we have intense
disagreements in other areas...

..because we'll all suffer
the consequences of our failure

if we do not come together
to address the urgent threats

like COVID-19 and climate change

or enduring threats
like nuclear proliferation.

NARRATOR: Though the great powers
continue to be at loggerheads

strategically,
a new threat has emerged

that goes beyond the prize of
global domination -

climate change.

Can the players of the new Cold War
work together

in the face of this existential
threat to humanity?

- China has made it clear it wants
to be a leader on this.

America has made it clear that
it wants to be a leader

on tackling climate change as well.

Thinking positively about the
relationship between the two states,

this could be one of the areas
where they co-operate.

At the moment...
we're not at that point.

NARRATOR: Will the world's new
superpowers be able to put aside

their differences to tackle
the impending climate crisis,

just as they managed to do,
when faced with the prospect

of nuclear annihilation?

Or will self-interest
and the conflicting objectives

of the world's most powerful nations

trump the common threat and condemn
us all to a much darker,

more uncertain future?

What is certain is that
there has never been more at stake.

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