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In December 1977,
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President Carter visited his
Cold War ally in the Middle East.
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the Shah of Iran.
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At the banquet held
in his honour, he raised a toast.
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"Iran, because of the
great leadership of the Shah,
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is an island of stability in one
of the more troubled areas of the
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world."
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The Middle East was
certainly troubled.
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Through the 1970s, the region had
become an ideological battleground.
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On the one hand, there were those
like the Shah, allied to the West.
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We'll call them the liberalists.
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On the other hand, were
allies of the Soviet Union,
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like the Baathists in Syria and Iraq,
or the Communists in Afghanistan.
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We'll call them the leftists.
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The leadership of both camps
was broadly authoritarian.
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Both pursued a secularizing,
modernizing agenda for their young,
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rapidly growing populations,
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as they flooded from the countryside
to the cities to get a slice of the
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Middle East's new wealth.
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And in these cities flashed the signs
of advancing technology and trade.
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Shopping malls, neon
lights and nightclubs.
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Women were gaining new
rights and going into new jobs.
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Even in conservative
countries like Saudi Arabia,
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young women were
becoming teachers and doctors.
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There seemed to be little future
for the religious conservatives, who
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called for a return to the old ways,
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or for revolutionary Islamists, who
wanted to bring fundamentalist Islam
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onto the world stage.
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History was marching
in another direction.
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Yet by 2001, for many across
the region, bin Laden was a hero.
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And the ideology of
political Islam, or Islamism,
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had grabbed the imagination
of the entire Middle East.
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The meteoric rise of this ideology
can be traced back to the events of
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one explosive year.
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We begin our story thirteen
months after Carter's visit to Iran.
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Just outside Paris,
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acolytes have flocked to see a man
who was busy changing history, the
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Iranian ayatollah, Ruhollah Khomeini.
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He'd been in exile for thirteen years.
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During those years,
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he had been coordinating
with dissidents inside Iran.
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And he had finally succeeded in
igniting a revolution against the
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Shah.
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Now he was courting the media,
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in preparation for the triumphal
return that God might be granting
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him.
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In Iran, violent demonstrations had
become an almost daily occurrence.
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A flood of oil money had
caused hyperinflation,
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huge inequality and
unprecedented corruption.
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More profoundly, millions of people
felt uneasy about the rapid change,
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foreign change, foreign
goods and decadent foreign ways.
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Khomeini was a figurehead around which
all groups opposed to the Shah had
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coalesced.
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Across the other side of
the Gulf in Saudi Arabia,
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another charismatic would-be
revolutionary was plotting the
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overthrow of his king.
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Juhayman al-Otaybi had been on the
run from the Saudi authorities for
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nearly two years.
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He was a fanatical conservative
who longed for the days of jihad.
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Hiding in Kassim and the Nejd with a
small band of followers, he was now
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writing a tax on the monarchy.
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The rulers have used religion to
justify their worldly interests.
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We've put an end to jihad, paid
allegiance to the Christians,
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and brought Muslims to
evil and corruption."
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Over the next few months,
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he would be finalizing his
plans to overthrow the king.
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In France, as the days ticked by,
Khomeini continued to work with the
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media,
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encouraging the belief that he was a
Gandhi-like old man, and keeping his
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statements vague.
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In fact, Khomeini's
vision for the Muslim world,
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the so-called
"Velayat-e-Faqih", was radical.
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Clerics traditionally
stayed out of politics,
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but he wanted a theocracy
with himself as its pinnacle.
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The Shah had just fled Tehran.
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The traditional edifice of the
monarchy with its capitalist,
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liberalizing ideology had
lost the trust of the people.
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Islamists,
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conservatives and leftists alike
wanted to rethink how society should
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be run.
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There were a few who
wept for what was to come.
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That evening, U.S.
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statesman Henry Kissinger pointed out
the implications for the region on
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American television.
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I believe that the collapse of
a pro-Western, pro-modern, and
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pro-American government in in Iran,
because that is what the Shah was,
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will have a profound effect on
Saudi Arabia, on the sheikhtans, on
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Kuwait, and on areas further away.
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But few people in Washington shared
Kissinger's gloomy forecast for the
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Middle East.
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They were more excited by another
radical development in the region.
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We have no desire to be
the world's policeman.
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But America does want to
be the world's peacemaker.
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I am determined, as President,
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to use the full beneficial influence
of our country so that the
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precious opportunity for lasting
peace between Israel and Egypt will
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not be lost.
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Following the Camp David
Accords the previous year,
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peace talks between Israel and Egypt
were progressing well, something
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many never dreamed possible.
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But there was still much
this year that Carter
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and
his envoys needed to do.
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At 7am, Ruhollah Khomeini
returned home with a letter.
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the hesitant steps of a man of 79.
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His cavalcade was greeted by one of
the largest crowds ever gathered.
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[MUSIC]
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In a few weeks,
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these Iranians would be given a
chance to vote on making Iran an
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Islamic Republic.
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And what was wrong with being
Islamic or being a Republic?
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Only a few knew about
Khomeini's Islamist vision.
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It was a vision for the entire
region,
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and he was already forging some
surprising foreign alliances.
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Yasser Arafat,
leftist leader of the PLO,
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was the first foreign
dignitary to to visit Khomeini.
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Arafat had a long relationship
with the Iranian revolutionaries.
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He had let them use his terrorist
training camps in Syria, Lebanon,
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and Iraq.
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Is the Palestinian resistance
feeling stronger now
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that it is backed by Iran?
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Definitely it changed completely the
whole strategic policy in this area,
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upside down completely.
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The Palestinian cause would
be central to the Iranian
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revolutionaries.
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They now gave the looted
Israeli embassy to the PLO.
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Iran's Islamists were transforming
a cause of the Arab nationalists of
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the left into a religious duty.
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It was part of their
bid to lead all Muslims.
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Iran's new foreign
minister, Ebrahim Yazdi,
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had barely said farewell to Arafat
when he was hosting a new delegation.
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And this time there were no cameras.
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The visitors were given a
tour of revolutionary Tehran.
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These guests were Muslim
Brotherhood and other
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international Islamist leaders.
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Despite being Sunnis, the visitors
had much in common with the Shia
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Islamist revolutionaries,
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not least their admiration for the
seminal Sayyid Qutub, who extolled
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the use of violence
against enemies of the religion.
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They met Khomeini in private,
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then they asked him to
lead the whole Islamic world.
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Khomeini,
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reluctant to compromise his shia
beliefs, refused to commit himself.
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But Iran was messianic
about its revolution,
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and the delegation was pleased to
learn that some were already
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talking about spreading
their revolution abroad.
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And that Egypt was a target.
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Even now,
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Egypt's liberalist pro-Western
President Sadat was hosting
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President Carter to
pursue peace with Israel.
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It was a challenge to all who
refused to engage with the Israelis.
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The crowd may have been
excited at the prospect of peace,
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but Sadat was taking a huge gamble.
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There were many Egyptians
who hadn't turned out to
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welcome President Carter.
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Sadat was being attacked
by both Arab nationalists,
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who dreamed of a unified Arab
nation across the Middle East, and by
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Islamists, who dreamed of a unified
Muslim nation across the Middle East.
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Moreover,
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Sadat was reversing the socialist
policies of the past towards a free
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market, and the economy
was still in dire straits.
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So it wasn't just to protect the
American president that security was
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so high.
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At Cairo University,
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there had recently been huge
student demonstrations calling for an
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Islamic government and
protesting against the Carter visit.
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US journalists had reported
back home on the mood.
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Already there have
been some incidents.
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A bomb went off at the nightclub here
at the Sheraton Hotel last month,
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a protest against what's
seen as "Western immorality."
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Other bombs have been found,
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and all this has made the
police extremely jittery.
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But peace, Sadat felt, was in
the best interests of Egypt.
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He needed to turn around the economy,
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regain land lost to Israel in the
conflict, and stop the waste of
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young lives caused by decades of
war.
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Much depended on his work with Carter.
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"You are held here with the
highest esteem as one of the greatest
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statesmen of our time.
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Your courage..."
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And in trying to make peace,
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Sadat also risked
opposition from his Arab neighbours.
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In Lebanon, where the
PLO had its power base,
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the organisation was holding a general
strike against Carter's visit.
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Offices and shops were shut.
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We will continue our struggle,
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even the military struggle, or
the political struggle, against
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agreement.
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But in Cairo,
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the discussions continued
productively over the following
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days.
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Finally there was left only
one matter of uncertainty.
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How would Sadat's ally,
Saudi Arabia, react to peace?
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Construction projects across Egypt
testified to its dependence on Saudi
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economic support.
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So Carter sent his
National Security Advisor,
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Zbigniew Brzezinski, to
Riyadh for high-level talks.
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They knew that their ally,
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although increasingly
liberal, was still conservative.
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Saudi Arabia would be reluctant to
move against the region's
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anti-Israel consensus.
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The peace process between the
Israelis and the Egyptians, that was
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something which we Iran
sounded ready to support that,
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minimally not to obstruct it, and we
worked very hard to try to get their
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assurances that they would
give support to that effort.
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At the meeting,
Brzesinski talked frankly.
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Undermining Sadat
would help the Soviets.
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None of us want to see a
pro-Soviet regime in Egypt.
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All of this is said as a friend.
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We know that the peace treaty
is causing you difficulties,
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and that you face pressures.
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The Saudi foreign minister, Prince
Saud al-Faisal, was reassuring.
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No country more than Saudi
Arabia wants the success of President
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Sadat.
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No country would be
more hurt by his failure.
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He would like to see Egypt as
the leader of the Arab world, with
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moderate forces flourishing.
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Saud went on to explain that his
country would follow a circumspect
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line.
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It would punish Sadat only by
supporting the consensus that wished
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to suspend Egypt from the Arab
League.
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It now looked like the signing of the
accords could take place in a matter
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of days.
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Brzezinski flew to Cairo to
let Sadat know the good news.
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He took the opportunity to
give a press conference.
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America wanted doubters in the region
to understand why peace with Israel
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was so important.
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A peace treaty which will open
the doors to greater prosperity,
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more progress, more
stability in the entire region.
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We feel that we are on the eve of
an important new era in this part of
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the world.
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But some wanted a very different,
new era for this part of the world.
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A few days earlier,
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Islamist revolutionaries
shared exciting news from
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Peshawar in Pakistan.
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They were announcing the escalation
of their uprising in neighboring
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Afghanistan, and events
in Iran gave them hope.
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Afghan Islamists were using the
mountainous tribal areas on the
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border with Pakistan as as a base to
attack communist government targets.
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As in Iran,
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the Islamists were fighting
alongside conservative Afghans.
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They had united to oppose the reforms
pushed through by the hardline
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00:26:29,154 --> 00:26:30,474
communist government in Kabul.
243
00:26:59,834 --> 00:27:04,354
The government had upset many by
passing new laws to abolish the
244
00:27:04,434 --> 00:27:07,594
veil, child marriage,
and the selling of brides.
245
00:27:09,914 --> 00:27:11,874
They had promoted women's rights,
246
00:27:12,634 --> 00:27:16,274
and forced through a radical
program of land redistribution.
247
00:27:17,474 --> 00:27:21,554
But the brutal enforcement of
their policies won the government no
248
00:27:21,634 --> 00:27:22,234
friends.
249
00:27:24,474 --> 00:27:26,434
By spring 1979,
250
00:27:27,034 --> 00:27:29,874
townspeople and villagers
across Afghanistan
251
00:27:29,954 --> 00:27:32,114
had lost
trust in the government.
252
00:28:18,794 --> 00:28:23,194
And as in Iran, the links to
foreign governments, in this case the
253
00:28:23,274 --> 00:28:23,914
Soviets,
254
00:28:23,994 --> 00:28:28,914
allow traditionalists and Islamists
to stir up further animosity against
255
00:28:29,154 --> 00:28:29,754
change.
256
00:28:45,434 --> 00:28:49,874
In Moscow, the government's
Soviet allies were highly concerned.
257
00:28:51,594 --> 00:28:56,594
The Politburo listened to a report
from Foreign Minister Gromyko.
258
00:28:58,754 --> 00:29:02,794
The situation in
Afghanistan has deteriorated sharply.
259
00:29:03,434 --> 00:29:08,794
The insurgents infiltrating from
Pakistan and Iran have joined forces
260
00:29:08,874 --> 00:29:10,754
with a domestic counter-revolution.
261
00:29:12,114 --> 00:29:15,474
The latter is dominated
by religious fanatics.
262
00:29:16,634 --> 00:29:20,314
Under no circumstances
should we lose Afghanistan.
263
00:29:23,594 --> 00:29:26,434
Soviet divisions were put in
a state of battle readiness,
264
00:29:28,154 --> 00:29:32,114
and orders were given to start a huge
delivery of military vehicles and
265
00:29:32,194 --> 00:29:35,314
equipment, and to send in
hundreds of additional advisors.
266
00:29:38,474 --> 00:29:41,674
They were gratefully received
by desperate Afghan commanders.
267
00:29:55,234 --> 00:29:59,714
No one knew whether this additional
support would be enough to tip the
268
00:29:59,794 --> 00:30:00,994
balance in the fighting.
269
00:30:08,394 --> 00:30:13,274
Now President Sadat and Prime
Minister Begin will sign three
270
00:30:13,354 --> 00:30:18,034
copies of the Treaty of Peace
in English, Arabic and Hebrew.
271
00:30:24,434 --> 00:30:26,274
Egyptians watch the news.
272
00:30:27,634 --> 00:30:28,994
Despite Sadat's fears,
273
00:30:29,474 --> 00:30:32,594
the general reaction, for
the moment, was encouraging.
274
00:30:32,914 --> 00:30:36,034
"It's a very great, important event
275
00:30:37,794 --> 00:30:39,154
for the Middle East,
276
00:30:40,874 --> 00:30:44,874
and it's all right, very good."
277
00:30:52,994 --> 00:30:53,674
Moreover,
278
00:30:53,754 --> 00:30:57,554
the response to the peace treaty from
the rest of the Arab world was more
279
00:30:57,634 --> 00:30:58,754
muted than expected.
280
00:31:00,154 --> 00:31:00,874
In Syria,
281
00:31:01,714 --> 00:31:05,554
President Assad and the Soviet
Foreign Minister Gromyko were in
282
00:31:05,634 --> 00:31:06,234
talks.
283
00:31:07,354 --> 00:31:09,474
Together they
reaffirmed their opposition.
284
00:31:12,234 --> 00:31:16,834
In Paris, a Jewish restaurant was
bombed, probably on Syrian orders.
285
00:31:21,554 --> 00:31:24,394
and in Iran, a
demonstration was organised.
286
00:31:28,194 --> 00:31:29,234
In West Beirut,
287
00:31:29,554 --> 00:31:34,754
the PLO leader Yasser Arafat was
still against any negotiation with
288
00:31:34,834 --> 00:31:35,434
Israel.
289
00:31:36,074 --> 00:31:39,514
He held a press conference and
accused Sadat of betraying the
290
00:31:39,594 --> 00:31:40,434
Egyptian people.
291
00:31:57,354 --> 00:32:00,354
"The Arab League would suspend Egypt
and move its headquarters away from
292
00:32:00,994 --> 00:32:01,634
Cairo.
293
00:32:02,634 --> 00:32:03,954
But that was as expected.
294
00:32:05,954 --> 00:32:09,514
The regional response to Sadat
had been little more than noise,
295
00:32:11,394 --> 00:32:14,634
and Sadat arranged for
celebrations on his return to Cairo.
296
00:32:17,074 --> 00:32:18,274
The crowd were delighted.
297
00:32:21,714 --> 00:32:25,914
Sadat's success made the old
ideology of leftism irrelevant.
298
00:32:29,754 --> 00:32:31,474
On that very same day in Iran,
299
00:32:31,914 --> 00:32:36,594
although few knew it yet, the leftists
were also being made irrelevant.
300
00:32:40,834 --> 00:32:43,834
They had agreed to a
referendum called by Khomeini.
301
00:32:45,594 --> 00:32:46,794
Iranians were asked,
302
00:32:47,034 --> 00:32:51,994
"Should Iran become an Islamic
Republic?" But they were given no
303
00:32:52,074 --> 00:32:55,394
details of what it involved,
and no alternative options.
304
00:33:28,954 --> 00:33:33,954
But in accepting a referendum, the
left were agreeing to exactly that.
305
00:33:51,154 --> 00:33:54,154
It was an overwhelming
victory for Khomeini.
306
00:33:55,354 --> 00:33:59,074
He still needed to push through
his doctrine a velayat-e-faqih
307
00:33:59,154 --> 00:34:00,554
into the constitution.
308
00:34:01,034 --> 00:34:02,234
But that would come later.
309
00:34:02,594 --> 00:34:05,474
For now, Iran was an Islamic republic.
310
00:34:06,034 --> 00:34:08,874
The government of God
had officially begun.
311
00:34:11,074 --> 00:34:13,874
Across the Middle East,
Islamists were delighted.
312
00:34:53,994 --> 00:34:54,914
In Jordan,
313
00:34:54,994 --> 00:35:00,194
a Palestinian lecturer in Sharia at
Amman University was also energized
314
00:35:00,274 --> 00:35:01,634
by the news from Iran.
315
00:35:11,914 --> 00:35:16,154
This was Abdullah Azzam,
the future father of jihad,
316
00:35:17,234 --> 00:35:20,354
someone who will play an
important part later in our story.
317
00:35:27,314 --> 00:35:28,354
Over in Riyadh,
318
00:35:29,114 --> 00:35:33,394
King Khalid of Saudi Arabia was
trying to get the measure of this
319
00:35:33,474 --> 00:35:34,754
new Islamic Republic.
320
00:35:36,274 --> 00:35:37,594
Was Iran, he wondered,
321
00:35:37,954 --> 00:35:40,794
trying to compete for
leadership of the Muslim world?
322
00:35:44,274 --> 00:35:46,154
He sent Khomeini a telegram.
323
00:35:47,594 --> 00:35:52,474
I am happy to express my sincere
congratulations as you announce the
324
00:35:52,714 --> 00:35:55,274
establishment of the
Islamic Republic in Iran.
325
00:35:56,674 --> 00:36:00,554
Certainly this announcement has
been warmly received in Saudi Arabia,
326
00:36:00,954 --> 00:36:06,594
being committed to the ideology,
the method and the application of
327
00:36:06,674 --> 00:36:07,594
Islamic principles.
328
00:36:09,834 --> 00:36:10,914
A few days later,
329
00:36:11,154 --> 00:36:15,114
he sent a high-level delegation to
meet Khomeini and present him with a
330
00:36:15,194 --> 00:36:15,834
Koran.
331
00:36:18,074 --> 00:36:23,114
But Khomeini responded with
veiled criticism of Saudi Arabia's
332
00:36:23,194 --> 00:36:25,234
relationship with the arrogant West.
333
00:36:26,994 --> 00:36:28,234
The meeting was recorded.
334
00:36:59,274 --> 00:37:00,834
It was an ominous sign.
335
00:37:01,714 --> 00:37:04,954
In suggesting that Saudi
Arabia was insufficiently Islamic,
336
00:37:05,394 --> 00:37:09,514
Khomeini seemed to be offering his
own leadership to the Muslim world.
337
00:37:14,634 --> 00:37:17,234
The supreme leader
was becoming bolder.
338
00:37:22,554 --> 00:37:23,354
Throughout May,
339
00:37:23,714 --> 00:37:27,634
he escalated anti-American and
anti-Israeli demonstrations.
340
00:37:49,994 --> 00:37:54,074
These demonstrations helped spread
revolutionary fervor across the
341
00:37:54,154 --> 00:37:54,754
region.
342
00:37:57,954 --> 00:38:03,474
In Iraq, the Dawa party, old allies
of Khomeini, took to the streets.
343
00:38:05,354 --> 00:38:08,714
Violent clashes erupted
every Friday in Najaf,
344
00:38:10,114 --> 00:38:13,754
outside the home of Mohammed
Bakr al-Sadr, known as the Iraqi
345
00:38:13,834 --> 00:38:14,914
Ayatollah Khomeini.
346
00:38:18,594 --> 00:38:21,434
But the ruthlessness of the Iraqi
Ba' athists
347
00:38:21,514 --> 00:38:24,714
soon stopped Shia
Iraq following the Iranian model.
348
00:38:28,674 --> 00:38:31,674
The revolution in Iran
also affected Syria.
349
00:38:34,474 --> 00:38:35,274
In Aleppo,
350
00:38:36,314 --> 00:38:38,874
a cadet school was attacked
by the militant wing of
351
00:38:38,954 --> 00:38:40,194
the Muslim Brotherhood.
352
00:38:42,874 --> 00:38:46,194
They killed 60. Many
more were hospitalized.
353
00:38:47,394 --> 00:38:51,914
It marked the start of a three-year
terrorist campaign to overthrow the
354
00:38:51,994 --> 00:38:53,314
Ba'athist government.
355
00:39:15,194 --> 00:39:20,834
And again, the Islamists would
be met with ruthless oppression.
356
00:39:37,914 --> 00:39:41,594
An estimated 30,000 people would die.
357
00:39:47,594 --> 00:39:49,874
To return to our year of 1979,
358
00:39:51,354 --> 00:39:54,434
in Egypt the summer
temperatures were kicking in.
359
00:39:58,114 --> 00:39:59,914
A new session of
Parliament was opening.
360
00:40:02,634 --> 00:40:05,394
Sadat was bolstering
support for his peace deal,
361
00:40:05,474 --> 00:40:07,554
reassuring
disappointed Arab nationalists.
362
00:40:41,034 --> 00:40:42,594
He needed their applause.
363
00:40:45,874 --> 00:40:48,114
As in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria,
364
00:40:48,634 --> 00:40:51,074
Islamists had begun to
threaten the government.
365
00:40:58,394 --> 00:41:00,714
The CIA's internal analysis,
366
00:41:00,914 --> 00:41:03,714
written a few weeks
previously, summed up the danger.
367
00:41:05,914 --> 00:41:09,554
Sadats decision to allow the Muslim
Brotherhood a significant degree of
368
00:41:09,634 --> 00:41:13,034
freedom to operate may contain
the seeds of future trouble.
369
00:41:14,354 --> 00:41:19,354
There are obvious parallels between
the devout Muslim fundamentalism
370
00:41:19,434 --> 00:41:23,074
exhibited by the Brotherhood in
Egypt and the emotional following
371
00:41:23,394 --> 00:41:26,474
commanded by the
Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran.
372
00:41:31,114 --> 00:41:34,194
Many Muslim Brotherhood
members were getting restive.
373
00:41:35,034 --> 00:41:39,834
Fiery preachers like Omar
Abdul Rahman, the blind sheikh,
374
00:41:39,914 --> 00:41:43,354
who would later become involved in
terrorism against America, denounced
375
00:41:43,434 --> 00:41:44,594
Sadat as an infidel.
376
00:41:47,914 --> 00:41:51,674
But Sadat primarily feared the
country's 400,000 students,
377
00:41:51,754 --> 00:41:54,834
where the Muslim Brotherhood
had been growing.
378
00:42:46,234 --> 00:42:49,194
Student action soon
reached beyond the campuses.
379
00:43:20,354 --> 00:43:24,434
The student Islamists would
also organize events featuring
380
00:43:24,514 --> 00:43:29,594
counterculture figures like Sheikh
Imam, who sang songs praising the
381
00:43:29,674 --> 00:43:30,434
Iranian Revolution.
382
00:43:51,794 --> 00:43:52,674
And that summer,
383
00:43:52,994 --> 00:43:58,074
a medical student published
"Humayni, the Islamic and Alternative
384
00:43:58,154 --> 00:43:58,954
Solution."
385
00:43:59,394 --> 00:44:02,634
In just two days, it
sold 10,000 copies.
386
00:44:03,674 --> 00:44:06,314
The author was a young Fatih Shakaki.
387
00:44:06,834 --> 00:44:07,634
Like Azzam,
388
00:44:08,074 --> 00:44:11,874
he had been a disillusioned
Palestinian leftist who had joined
389
00:44:11,954 --> 00:44:12,914
the Muslim Brotherhood.
390
00:44:15,354 --> 00:44:19,474
Now travelling back and forth across
Cairo, anonymous among its vast
391
00:44:19,554 --> 00:44:20,314
crowds,
392
00:44:20,394 --> 00:44:24,754
he secretly began to establish the
infamous Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
393
00:44:27,594 --> 00:44:28,834
At the same time,
394
00:44:28,914 --> 00:44:32,314
a group of young men were secretly
meeting to establish Egyptian
395
00:44:32,634 --> 00:44:33,674
Islamic Jihad.
396
00:44:35,514 --> 00:44:39,954
Their goal was to overthrow Sadat's
government and replace it with an
397
00:44:40,034 --> 00:44:40,674
Islamic state.
398
00:44:45,474 --> 00:44:50,794
Among the members was a 26-year-old
Ayman al-Zawahiri, the future
399
00:44:50,874 --> 00:44:52,154
ideologue for al-Qaeda.
400
00:44:58,314 --> 00:45:00,434
As Sadat left Parliament that summer.
401
00:45:01,394 --> 00:45:03,954
He felt he now had to
make a difficult choice.
402
00:45:05,154 --> 00:45:07,874
Faced with this Islamist discontent,
403
00:45:08,434 --> 00:45:13,234
he could hope it dies away, or become
more autocratic and clamped down.
404
00:45:22,234 --> 00:45:24,074
Meanwhile, over in Afghanistan,
405
00:45:24,874 --> 00:45:28,714
despite their extra Soviet equipment
and help from Soviet advisors,
406
00:45:29,234 --> 00:45:31,514
morale in the Afghan
army was plummeting.
407
00:46:07,034 --> 00:46:10,954
Afghan army brutality against
the rebel collaborators only
408
00:46:11,034 --> 00:46:12,074
strengthened their resolve.
409
00:47:12,554 --> 00:47:15,554
Afghanistan was stepping
closer and closer to collapse.
410
00:47:22,514 --> 00:47:25,994
In light of the news from
Afghanistan, Egypt, and Iran,
411
00:47:26,834 --> 00:47:30,714
the Saudi government started to think
about the mood of its own people.
412
00:47:31,914 --> 00:47:34,474
Was the gradual
liberalization sustainable?
413
00:47:36,314 --> 00:47:37,754
Was there a threat of rebellion?
414
00:47:39,034 --> 00:47:41,954
Their foreign minister
remained outwardly confident.
415
00:47:43,434 --> 00:47:46,114
Do you think what's happened
in Iran could ever happen here?
416
00:47:47,514 --> 00:47:50,194
Not on the same reasons.
417
00:47:50,554 --> 00:47:56,274
We believe that we have a
cohesiveness in here, that the
418
00:47:56,354 --> 00:48:00,754
stresses and strains of development
and both economic and all the
419
00:48:00,834 --> 00:48:01,674
fields, economic,
420
00:48:01,754 --> 00:48:05,594
social or political, we have enough
of a cohesion between the leadership
421
00:48:05,674 --> 00:48:09,554
in this country and the government
in this country and the people to be
422
00:48:09,634 --> 00:48:12,794
able to absorb the stresses and
strains of development without
423
00:48:12,874 --> 00:48:13,554
violent change.
424
00:48:14,714 --> 00:48:15,474
But U.S.
425
00:48:15,634 --> 00:48:17,994
Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, John
West,
426
00:48:18,594 --> 00:48:20,554
found out the real mood of their
ally.
427
00:48:22,554 --> 00:48:27,034
He visited Abdul Rahman
Mansouri, Deputy Foreign Minister,
428
00:48:27,554 --> 00:48:31,474
and was told that Saudi foreign
policy was under top-secret review.
429
00:48:34,234 --> 00:48:37,914
He said that he felt the first
priority should be to concentrate on
430
00:48:37,994 --> 00:48:42,114
the Saudi government's internal
situation to ensure maximum stability.
431
00:48:42,514 --> 00:48:46,074
I told him that I thought that
was indeed wise and that the most
432
00:48:46,154 --> 00:48:49,714
frequently asked question in the
U.S. during my consultations was,
433
00:48:49,914 --> 00:48:55,274
"Will Saudi Arabia go the way of
Iran?" Mansouri, in what I thought
434
00:48:55,354 --> 00:48:59,874
was an unusual burst of candor,
said, "The highest priority within
435
00:48:59,954 --> 00:49:04,034
Saudi Arabia was to ensure
that such did not happen.
436
00:49:04,834 --> 00:49:08,034
He said the next two years
were going to be most critical,
437
00:49:08,474 --> 00:49:12,914
and the actions taken or not
taken would probably determine the
438
00:49:12,994 --> 00:49:13,954
survival of the monarchy.
439
00:49:23,514 --> 00:49:26,394
But events were already
overtaking the Saudi government.
440
00:49:29,594 --> 00:49:34,274
Juhayman and his band of fanatical
conservatives now had a plan.
441
00:49:37,114 --> 00:49:39,274
They would seize the
Holy Mosque of Mecca,
442
00:49:39,994 --> 00:49:43,954
proclaim the arrival of the
Mahdi, and overthrow the government.
37919
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