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Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 0 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,958 PETER REDDIEN: All right. 1 00:00:01,958 --> 00:00:04,500 Now let's think about when-- if we look at these classes what 2 00:00:04,500 --> 00:00:07,678 we expect with our two hypotheses 3 00:00:07,678 --> 00:00:09,720 that we're considering, hypotheses two and three. 4 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:23,610 5 00:00:23,610 --> 00:00:28,563 What's expected if we have these three classes-- 6 00:00:28,563 --> 00:00:29,730 with these three hypotheses? 7 00:00:29,730 --> 00:00:31,470 We went through hypothesis one before. 8 00:00:31,470 --> 00:00:39,880 We're expecting a three to one ratio 9 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:48,802 of not paralyzed to paralyzed. 10 00:00:48,802 --> 00:00:53,320 11 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:55,910 So that's what we did in the first part of the lecture. 12 00:00:55,910 --> 00:01:02,290 So now hypothesis two, what do we expect? 13 00:01:02,290 --> 00:01:04,330 So recall hypothesis two. 14 00:01:04,330 --> 00:01:06,880 We need to be homozygous for both 15 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:11,560 of these ts alleles of paralyzed gene and shibere gene. 16 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:13,900 So what ratio of phenotypes do we expect here? 17 00:01:13,900 --> 00:01:17,460 18 00:01:17,460 --> 00:01:22,110 What's the ratio of not paralyzed to paralyzed? 19 00:01:22,110 --> 00:01:22,800 Yeah? 20 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:23,760 STUDENT: 15 to one. 21 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:27,120 PETER REDDIEN: 15 to one, OK. 22 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:30,120 23 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,210 We expect 15 to one because only this class would be paralyzed 24 00:01:33,210 --> 00:01:35,520 and it's 1/16. 25 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:37,620 Finally, what would we expect in hypothesis three? 26 00:01:37,620 --> 00:01:43,390 27 00:01:43,390 --> 00:01:45,412 Yeah? 28 00:01:45,412 --> 00:01:46,370 STUDENT: Seven to nine. 29 00:01:46,370 --> 00:01:50,100 PETER REDDIEN: Yeah, nine to seven. 30 00:01:50,100 --> 00:01:50,600 Oops. 31 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:53,810 32 00:01:53,810 --> 00:01:55,970 Nine not paralyzed to seven paralyzed. 33 00:01:55,970 --> 00:01:59,510 OK, great. 34 00:01:59,510 --> 00:02:02,480 Now we can look at our data and think 35 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:05,930 about these different hypotheses. 36 00:02:05,930 --> 00:02:07,715 Our data, if you recall-- 37 00:02:07,715 --> 00:02:11,490 38 00:02:11,490 --> 00:02:19,230 so the data was 12 to four. 39 00:02:19,230 --> 00:02:22,520 40 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:24,380 Or three to one. 41 00:02:24,380 --> 00:02:28,610 But those are our actual numbers, 12 to four. 42 00:02:28,610 --> 00:02:31,648 What can we conclude? 43 00:02:31,648 --> 00:02:33,460 What do you guys think? 44 00:02:33,460 --> 00:02:33,960 Yeah? 45 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:36,670 STUDENT: Hypothesis one is most likely. 46 00:02:36,670 --> 00:02:39,580 PETER REDDIEN: OK, you're saying hypothesis one is most likely? 47 00:02:39,580 --> 00:02:40,250 OK. 48 00:02:40,250 --> 00:02:41,710 Certainly the closest to the data. 49 00:02:41,710 --> 00:02:45,120 Can we rule these out? 50 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:45,690 OK. 51 00:02:45,690 --> 00:02:48,490 Well, maybe, maybe not. 52 00:02:48,490 --> 00:02:51,516 How do we know if we can rule them out? 53 00:02:51,516 --> 00:02:53,125 What do you think? 54 00:02:53,125 --> 00:02:55,250 I mean, so-- well, 15 to one looks pretty different 55 00:02:55,250 --> 00:02:56,060 from 12 to four. 56 00:02:56,060 --> 00:03:00,140 But nine to seven, is that that different from 12 to four? 57 00:03:00,140 --> 00:03:01,640 I don't know, maybe you would expect 58 00:03:01,640 --> 00:03:03,560 to get that, some probability. 59 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:06,310 60 00:03:06,310 --> 00:03:08,070 What do we do? 61 00:03:08,070 --> 00:03:10,590 We just live with more likely, or less likely, or-- yeah? 62 00:03:10,590 --> 00:03:12,057 STUDENT: A statistical test. 63 00:03:12,057 --> 00:03:14,033 PETER REDDIEN: Statistical test, great. 64 00:03:14,033 --> 00:03:15,950 So what we're going to do is a hypothesis test 65 00:03:15,950 --> 00:03:17,060 with a statistical test. 66 00:03:17,060 --> 00:03:18,477 And what we're going to ask, let's 67 00:03:18,477 --> 00:03:22,280 take hypothesis three, because it's the closest, 68 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:28,610 and say, so with hypothesis three, 69 00:03:28,610 --> 00:03:32,630 how likely would it be to get data-- 70 00:03:32,630 --> 00:03:35,960 if hypothesis three is correct, how likely 71 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:40,640 would it be to get data that deviates this far or greater 72 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:43,170 from the expected? 73 00:03:43,170 --> 00:03:45,350 That's what we're going to ask. 4700