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Making this film was harder
than I thought.
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It started with simple curiosity.
3
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Since the financial crisis,
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I've tried to understand how our
economic system works.
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00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:19,350
economic growth -
concentration of wealth - debt
6
00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:23,272
But the numbers alone surprise me.
7
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Over recent decades, economic output
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has increased many times over,
as has debt.
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And inequality in wealth
distribution has grown steadily.
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So the gulf between rich and poor is
widening all the time.
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00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,952
So is there a connection
between economic output,
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00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:49,351
debt and private wealth?
13
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What are the rules of this system?
14
00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:20,318
Can I help set it up?
15
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It's pretty much done.
16
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We'll play with one dice.
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00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:28,678
When one of you builds a house,
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that doesn't mean that the
bank earns money,
19
00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,798
it means that the other economic
participants get it,
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00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:39,511
because they are effectively the
ones building the house.
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00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:42,435
The house owner
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00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:46,078
takes out a loan, creates money,
which then circulates.
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00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:49,314
So we're ready to start
24
00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:51,353
and so we can be sure
25
00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,599
of following through from boom to crisis
26
00:02:54,920 --> 00:02:57,435
this is a short version,
building one house each
27
00:02:57,840 --> 00:02:59,957
so we reach saturation point.
28
00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:02,835
In Monopoly, money's just
'there' given out to all
29
00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:06,432
but here it seems the money only comes
when we build, is that right?
30
00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:09,550
Because we're brought up with
the piggy-bank model,
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00:03:09,920 --> 00:03:12,389
as a child you're told, here's
your pocket money,
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00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:15,952
you get some coins, put them
in your piggy-bank
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00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:18,829
and you can only invest, buy
a toy or whatever,
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00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:20,515
when the piggy-bank is full.
35
00:03:20,920 --> 00:03:24,516
But here, you invest - then
the money appears.
36
00:03:24,920 --> 00:03:27,435
Money only exists when there's
economic activity
37
00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:30,111
I think that's a really important point.
38
00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:35,753
During my research, some are
interested in my questions
39
00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:38,311
but others are reserved and suspicious.
40
00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:41,597
Interviewees wanting to
remain anonymous,
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00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:43,513
filming permission withdrawn
42
00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:45,593
or filming micromanaged.
43
00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:52,711
I start keeping detailed notes of my
telephone conversations.
44
00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:56,830
The calls in the film are
spoken by actors,
45
00:03:57,160 --> 00:03:59,755
sometimes on the basis of
transcripts from memory.
46
00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:16,560
Hello, this is Carmen Losmann.
47
00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:18,753
I'm doing research for a documentary,
48
00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:21,589
investigating the links between
economic growth, debt
49
00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:23,832
and the concentration of wealth.
50
00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,640
Is there an engine driving
these phenomena?
51
00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:29,952
How does the whole thing interrelate?
52
00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:31,549
To answer that,
53
00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:34,435
you have to descend into the
engine room of capitalism
54
00:04:34,840 --> 00:04:36,991
and find out how money creation,
55
00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:40,558
the capitalist production
of money works.
56
00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:43,073
The banks play an important part,
57
00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:45,511
because they have a special privilege:
58
00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:49,038
they can create money that has
not yet been earned
59
00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,679
and by doing that they set a
vast dynamic in motion.
60
00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:08,233
Press department, Anja Müller, hello.
61
00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:10,279
Hello, can we use your bank to show
62
00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:13,115
how money is produced?
- Aha.
63
00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:16,832
OK, right, well, you've
wrong-footed me there.
64
00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,995
And actually I think 'producing money',
that's trivializing it a bit.
65
00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:23,279
I mean,
66
00:05:23,840 --> 00:05:26,992
it's not like a machine, moving
something right to left.
67
00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:28,953
It's not visible at all, as such.
68
00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:32,156
So you as a bank don't produce money?
69
00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:35,954
I can't say that we, I mean, money
production as such,
70
00:05:36,280 --> 00:05:38,795
I mean, we're not printing
money in the cellar.
71
00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:00,395
How is money created?
72
00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:09,393
Good, if there are no more questions,
73
00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:12,400
let's proceed to the vote.
74
00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:17,160
Brigitt Kienzler.
- Yes.
75
00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:18,960
Sebastian Lehrmann.
- Yes.
76
00:06:19,840 --> 00:06:21,115
Thomas Bittracher.
- Yes.
77
00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:23,717
Max Rohwee.
- Yes.
78
00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:26,118
Philipp von Homajer.
- Yes.
79
00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:27,709
I also vote yes.
80
00:06:28,840 --> 00:06:32,800
So the credit application is
unanimously approved.
81
00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:37,311
Thank you very much.
82
00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:42,391
We'll move on to the
second application...
83
00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:44,600
Dear Ms Losmann,
84
00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:48,630
we would gladly simulate a credit
committee meeting for you.
85
00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:51,159
We also offer to simulate
86
00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:54,314
a credit discussion between
our bank manager
87
00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:57,036
and a genuine customer for the camera.
88
00:06:58,160 --> 00:06:59,719
Please.
- Thank you.
89
00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:06,678
Nice we can have this talk today.
90
00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:10,636
You made a telephone enquiry
about your financing
91
00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:14,277
and we were able to discuss some
key data on the phone.
92
00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:18,674
Getting to know our credit customers
personally is also important to us.
93
00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:21,232
You said the apartment...
94
00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:22,550
400,000 francs.
95
00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:25,037
...had a purchase price of
400,000 francs.
96
00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:27,238
Yes, but I've had another look
97
00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:31,315
and I've decided that I need at least
to renovate the kitchen.
98
00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:34,633
Yes.
- And a few other minor renovations
99
00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:38,960
and I think I'd need another
25,000 francs for that.
100
00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:42,114
For us as a bank, it's crucial
in allowing credit
101
00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,080
that we are able to verify that you,
102
00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:48,393
as debtor, will be able to
repay the credit,
103
00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:51,639
which in practical terms means that
you can pay the interest
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00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:53,440
out of your income
105
00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:56,679
as well as meeting the loan
repayment terms.
106
00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:58,190
So it's important
107
00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:01,195
that we understand your finances
108
00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:03,956
and an excellent basis for this
is your tax return,
109
00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:06,636
which you've provided here, and which
110
00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:10,072
on the one hand shows us your income
111
00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:12,080
and on the other
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00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:14,995
also documents your assets.
113
00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:19,718
money creation
114
00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:22,394
We now come to the loan payout,
115
00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:26,396
which is a vital moment: the
money leaving the bank.
116
00:08:32,560 --> 00:08:36,190
The display shows us our bank system.
117
00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:38,592
I enter the account number here,
118
00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:47,272
the loan amount, which is
310,000 francs.
119
00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:51,518
And I add the text comment
120
00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:54,596
"credit disbursement".
121
00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:58,676
That's the debit side of the entry,
122
00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:00,355
which I now save.
123
00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:02,951
Now we move on to the credit side.
124
00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:07,680
Here I have to give the
loan amount again,
125
00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:09,235
the 310,000
126
00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:12,075
and the account number on
the credit side,
127
00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,319
that's the receiving
account of Ms Franzen.
128
00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:18,753
153384301.
129
00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:23,871
When the book entry is made, the
credit account increases
130
00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:28,873
and on the other side the receiving
account of the customer increases,
131
00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:31,271
so we get a balance sheet expansion
132
00:09:31,680 --> 00:09:34,434
and so we have created money.
133
00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:36,400
I click to save
134
00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:39,793
and thus the money creation is done.
135
00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:54,357
debit - credit
136
00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:05,638
In making this credit payout,
137
00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,993
we have not had to take money
138
00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:11,670
from deposit customers' accounts,
139
00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:16,074
to credit it to the credit customer.
140
00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:21,357
We have entered a sum of money
in the balance sheet
141
00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:23,797
that did not exist before
142
00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:26,999
thereby increasing our
balance sheet total
143
00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:30,359
and this balance sheet expansion
has created new money
144
00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:33,800
through the credit disbursement.
145
00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,390
I was a faithful employee
146
00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:16,076
of these institutions -
147
00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:18,398
public like the IMF,
148
00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:21,036
and later private investment banks
149
00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:26,111
and I really never bothered my head
about how money worked.
150
00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:29,396
It never really came up in
our studies either.
151
00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:33,516
Money was just there, it was like any
other investment object.
152
00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:37,437
Then along came the financial crisis and
suddenly things were happening
153
00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:39,672
that people couldn't explain.
154
00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:43,799
So then, at a somewhat advanced
age you might say,
155
00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:47,274
I tried going back to basics again
156
00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:51,236
and asking myself fundamental questions:
157
00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,353
How does a bank work?
158
00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:59,880
So the first obvious
question you have to ask
159
00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:02,032
that the usual theories never answer is:
160
00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:04,193
how does money come into the world?
161
00:12:04,560 --> 00:12:07,234
Everyone behaved as if
things were the same
162
00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:09,592
as they were under the Gold Standard,
163
00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:13,113
with a gold miner prospecting,
finding the stuff in a stream
164
00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:16,353
and it becomes a gold coin,
and goes to the bank
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00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:20,356
which issues a trust receipt,
which is then a banknote
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00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:24,117
but it issues more banknotes
167
00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:26,870
than it receives real gold coins
because it assumes
168
00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:29,795
that its gold depositors are
not all going to want
169
00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:33,238
to see their gold at once, and that's
fractional-reserve banking.
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00:12:33,560 --> 00:12:36,155
That's what everyone learned,
including me
171
00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:39,035
and we thought that's how
the world worked.
172
00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:43,070
But it's really only a very
limited explanation
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00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:47,435
for how money is created in a
gold-based system.
174
00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:49,638
What really happens is:
175
00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:53,312
banks use lending
176
00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:57,031
to produce book money-demand deposits.
177
00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:00,950
So when you, as a customer,
go to your bank,
178
00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:03,551
and apply for a credit,
179
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:05,559
and the loan officer
180
00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:09,033
approves it, says you're creditworthy,
181
00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:10,436
sign here.
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00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:11,876
The bank then goes off
183
00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:16,797
and just writes the amount as a
credit in your giro account.
184
00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:19,556
They don't need to
collect deposits first
185
00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:21,434
in order to issue the credit.
186
00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:24,400
And they do this again and again...
187
00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,395
listen to them carefully, these people,
bankers,
188
00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:30,235
again and again they say a bank's job is
189
00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:33,553
to collect deposits and
issue them as credits,
190
00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:35,877
professional people say this.
191
00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:37,230
And it's not true.
192
00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:40,075
The bank doesn't need money
to issue a credit,
193
00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:42,432
it produces money by issuing the credit.
194
00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,714
And the link between
entrepreneurial activity
195
00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:54,238
and our monetary system
196
00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:57,878
comes from this issuing of credit.
197
00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:01,434
Our money, bank money,
198
00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:04,355
is created by issuing credit.
199
00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,076
For that, we need businesses
taking out loans
200
00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:09,159
or households that borrow.
201
00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:11,517
But if they say no, I'm not going to,
202
00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:13,593
I'm already in so much debt,
203
00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:15,400
money production stalls.
204
00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:17,559
So it was after the financial crisis.
205
00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,959
The central banks have been
desperately trying
206
00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:23,277
to get things moving again,
207
00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:25,717
so more loans would be issued.
208
00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:28,077
So to keep the system going,
209
00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:31,956
to keep the economic system and
economic growth going,
210
00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:36,155
new loans must constantly be issued
so money is created.
211
00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:39,639
Economy grows as credits are issued.
212
00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:43,078
And what I'm asking myself,
213
00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:46,353
you've said that money is
produced by private banks
214
00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:49,036
when they issue credit.
215
00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,717
As I see it, the bank will
only give money
216
00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:54,878
to people who credibly demonstrate
217
00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:57,710
that they're going to make a profit.
218
00:14:58,120 --> 00:14:59,759
That's the idea, the business model.
219
00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:03,358
So now this is my question: To what
extent does this create
220
00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,231
an inherent, systemic growth compulsion,
221
00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:08,552
because in effect banks only issue loans
222
00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:11,754
when an economic situation
promises growth,
223
00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,311
because that's the way to make profits?
224
00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:17,393
Well, yes, they will, that's right,
225
00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:20,594
but I mean no one is forced
to take out a loan.
226
00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:27,279
Dear Ms Losmann,
227
00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:31,111
my current employer does not want to
appear in this film.
228
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,592
All my remarks are therefore
personal opinions
229
00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:37,959
and do not represent the official
position of my firm.
230
00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:58,837
Economy grows as credits are issued.
231
00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:17,751
Credits are issued as economy grows.
232
00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:30,631
So up to now I've understood
that credits are issued
233
00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:32,713
when the economy is growing.
234
00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:35,633
And economic growth means
235
00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:39,158
that more goods and services are
sold this year than last,
236
00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:42,958
but that in turn requires more money,
237
00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:46,039
so that these goods and
services can be bought.
238
00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:49,834
And producing this greater
quantity of money
239
00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:51,395
requires more credits.
240
00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:54,599
So the monster is eating its own tail,
isn't it?
241
00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:57,840
It is paradoxical in a way.
242
00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:00,716
It only works for as long as it works,
243
00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:03,795
as long as the chain reaction
of economic growth
244
00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:06,669
and new credit continues.
245
00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:10,559
And the European Central Bank has a
huge influence on this,
246
00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:13,230
especially in the years after
the financial crisis.
247
00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:15,797
It tries to ensure through
its monetary policy
248
00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,356
that the chain doesn't break down.
249
00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:34,831
Carmen Losmann, hello.
- Hello Ms Losmann,
250
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,675
I'm here with my colleague from
the media department.
251
00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:39,957
And so we'd just like to hear once again
252
00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:43,074
how you envisage Mr Praet's
role in this film,
253
00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:46,314
and what subjects you're
expecting him to talk about.
254
00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:49,792
Well, my interview
questions tell you that:
255
00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:52,311
about the monetary policy of the ECB,
256
00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:56,031
and the effects of that
policy on the economy.
257
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,518
May I just jump in here, hello,
nice to talk to you.
258
00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:02,076
So the interview will not
last for two hours,
259
00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:04,033
he hasn't that kind of time.
260
00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:06,796
What we need is a clear understanding
261
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:09,157
of your purpose in this interview.
262
00:18:10,360 --> 00:18:11,874
Well, the acceptance I received
263
00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:14,232
did say that two hours was OK,
264
00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:16,597
and I designed my questions accordingly.
265
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,071
If two hours is now no good,
266
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,114
I need to adapt my questions,
267
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,790
but I still don't quite know
268
00:18:25,120 --> 00:18:27,237
how long you're proposing
for the interview,
269
00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:29,193
under the new conditions.
270
00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:32,155
Well he's set aside 45
minutes in his diary
271
00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:35,757
and minus a few minutes for arriving,
leaving and so on,
272
00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:40,029
I'd be looking at half an hour,
realistically.
273
00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:37,674
Dear Ms Losmann,
274
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:42,119
unfortunately filming a real
meeting is not possible.
275
00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:46,760
However, we would be happy to
simulate a meeting for you.
276
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,559
book money = 90% of our
total money supply
277
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,076
After the financial crisis,
private banks
278
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,831
stopped issuing enough credit,
jeopardising the money supply.
279
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,037
So the ECB intervened, launching its
280
00:26:40,360 --> 00:26:42,955
'Quantitative Easing' programme,
which means
281
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,636
the central bank buying assets
from major players
282
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:48,435
in the capital markets, mainly
government bonds,
283
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:50,678
using new money.
284
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:55,680
The ECB itself is creating this money,
up to 80 billion a month, by the way,
285
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,710
in the hope that this new
money will spur demand
286
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:03,120
and so stimulate new economic growth.
287
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:08,030
So why did the private banks
stop issuing credits?
288
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:11,756
No one knew after the financial crisis
289
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,754
where growth and profits
would come from.
290
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,399
The best thing for you here
would be to throw a one.
291
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:12,750
So, may I?
292
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:16,153
We've already talked about how money
appears in this system,
293
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,636
so the bank issues credit to me,
294
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,596
and in return I basically
promise to pay it back
295
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,037
and that brings money into the world.
- Yes.
296
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,272
So, that's the starting point.
297
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:29,359
Now I'm obliged
298
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:33,117
to take part in the system
through my value-creation,
299
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:37,354
and in principle to get money from all
other participants in the system
300
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:39,837
so that I can repay my credit.
301
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:08,594
Different in Monopoly,
302
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:10,798
because these banknotes just exist.
303
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,840
and it feels like all the bank
does is dole them out.
304
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:17,830
So the money in circulation is fixed -
many people think it really is -
305
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:21,074
and it's in circulation and gets used.
306
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,353
But that's not our system. Our
system is more like this,
307
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,952
as Samirah has tried to show, of course
a very simplified model,
308
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:31,353
but the money is really only
created when we build
309
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:33,240
and it disappears on repayment.
310
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:34,835
Without new debt,
311
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,755
we suddenly run out of money.
- Yes.
312
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:55,078
So if no one takes on new debt,
we run out of money,
313
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,073
but where does that money go?
314
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,717
Our modern money in capitalism is
not itself a commodity,
315
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:02,070
like seashells
316
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:05,797
or cigarettes or whatever else
is used for barter.
317
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:10,314
Money consists of credit and debt
at the same time.
318
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,311
If you pay back your individual credit,
319
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:17,638
the credit is still there,
320
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:20,270
say with the trades person
321
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:23,070
whom you've paid to renovate your house,
322
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:26,511
but at the same time you've taken money
323
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:30,277
out of the system elsewhere, earned
income, for example,
324
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:32,791
to repay or liquidate your debts.
325
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,639
And this liquidation reduces your
bank's balance sheet
326
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:42,033
and so reduces our whole money supply.
327
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:44,832
Does that make sense?
328
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:47,874
When loans are repaid,
329
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:50,596
new loans have to be issued immediately.
330
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:52,957
So enough money stays in circulation.
331
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:56,154
That, in turn, requires constant new
investment opportunities
332
00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:57,830
promising profit
333
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,840
so that new loans will be
issued for them.
334
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:04,595
So new business ideas, new
business models,
335
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:06,116
new value chains,
336
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,636
new products, new services,
337
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,271
new markets...
338
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,198
The next trillion dollars
339
00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:59,677
will be earned through data.
340
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:05,276
Everyone starting to think
in business models,
341
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,673
throughout the hierarchy,
not just management,
342
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,839
that's very, very difficult to get
into people's heads.
343
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:17,354
Dear Ms Losmann,
344
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:19,876
thank you for your interview questions
345
00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:23,000
on the subject 'growth
market digitalization.'
346
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:25,511
After lengthy deliberation,
we have decided
347
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:29,630
not to continue our
participation in your project.
348
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:34,713
With regret, we must therefore cancel
the interview with Dr. Jan Mrosik.
349
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:01,673
We need 2-3 percent growth,
350
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,319
if the tree stops growing, it dies.
And the same goes for us.
351
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:07,558
No growth from innovation -
352
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,315
nothing moves.
353
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,354
Why is growth important to
us as investors?
354
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:45,880
Well, growth pays the
dividends on shares
355
00:34:46,240 --> 00:34:49,790
and growth pays the coupon rates,
356
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:54,036
on bonds, which companies
issue to invest.
357
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:57,750
OK, but when industrial
production increases,
358
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:01,232
that only creates more products,
more output,
359
00:35:01,720 --> 00:35:05,157
so how do the actual profits happen,
the money for profits?
360
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:11,592
Where does money for profits come from?
361
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:22,709
Hello Ms Losmann,
362
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:26,272
thank you for your interest in
how value gains occur.
363
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:28,871
A simulated 'performance discussion'
364
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:31,351
with one of our clients
365
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:36,038
would address appreciation of
the assets concerned
366
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,750
and include analysis of value drivers.
367
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:41,550
Please!
368
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:42,951
Thank you.
369
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:48,399
So, Mr Schuster, great to have you
here in our new offices,
370
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:49,989
nice to see you again.
371
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:53,518
We've talked on the phone several
times in recent months,
372
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:57,800
but it's been a while since the last
performance discussion.
373
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:00,957
I've invited you for a
performance discussion.
374
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:04,393
As you know, in a performance discussion
375
00:36:04,720 --> 00:36:07,076
we look back at the past,
376
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:09,079
we shed light on the present
377
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:12,160
and then we try to use the data we have
378
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:13,954
to peer into the future
379
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,312
and develop an investment strategy.
380
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:21,114
In 2016, we had a positive
performance of 6.7%
381
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:24,791
on invested assets of
around 300.000 Euros
382
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:28,591
making a profit of 20.000 Euros
plus a few hundred.
383
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:32,791
What is particularly pleasing,
384
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:37,558
when I look at these figures and the
performance contributions.
385
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,959
is that the performance was
positive in every segment.
386
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:45,155
I can see of course, Emerging Markets
were the biggest driver
387
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,593
of this positive
development with over 10%.
388
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:50,440
Why is that?
389
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:53,275
Well, the Emerging Markets.
390
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:56,360
Growth in the Emerging Markets
is still much higher
391
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:58,558
than in developed countries
392
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,550
and that's really the main driver
393
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:04,195
that leads us to say
394
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:07,712
that our Emerging Markets commitment
was a very good thing.
395
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,960
On just a quick calculation,
today we have a...
396
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:21,040
...a situation that we...
397
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:25,078
Worst case,
398
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:28,195
our performance would be around 7%
399
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:30,676
and best case, about 15%.
400
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:34,313
That all sounds right to me.
- Thank you.
401
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:41,798
The economic condition we need
402
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:45,716
for added value to be generated or
my asset value to grow
403
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:47,440
is growth.
404
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:51,396
We define growth
405
00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:55,231
as worldwide production
steadily increasing
406
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:59,879
and where we see effective growth in the
sense of an enlarging market
407
00:38:00,240 --> 00:38:03,153
is obviously in the Emerging Markets.
408
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:05,753
If you think about
409
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:10,074
India or Indonesia
410
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:12,511
with a lot of people getting money
411
00:38:13,240 --> 00:38:16,711
that they can spend or want to
spend on consumer goods,
412
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,198
buying a phone or a car
413
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:24,355
or a fridge or just a
bigger place to live.
414
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:27,514
Obviously that's a huge
amount of potential
415
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:30,719
and the Emerging Markets' shares of
course profit from that,
416
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:33,760
because they can turn over more
in their home market.
417
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:36,675
But there are also a lot of
companies in Germany
418
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:40,152
like engineering firms, who are
supplying products
419
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:43,319
that get bought by enterprises
in those countries,
420
00:38:43,720 --> 00:38:46,519
to make their own
production more efficient
421
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:48,951
or just produce more.
422
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:53,750
Companies' profits increase because
423
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:56,550
they sell more products.
424
00:38:56,920 --> 00:38:58,593
Because they sell more products,
425
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:02,277
but don't, relatively speaking,
produce more spending.
426
00:39:04,720 --> 00:39:07,633
So to sell products you need
someone with the money
427
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:09,354
to buy them.
- Exactly right.
428
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:13,515
So where does the money come from?
From companies borrowing,
429
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:18,039
to buy materials, pay wages and salaries
430
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:20,238
putting money in circulation.
- Right.
431
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:24,315
Say a company takes out a loan
for a certain amount
432
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:27,514
let's say 500 Euros for
simplicity's sake,
433
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:29,150
that's now in circulation.
434
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:33,190
But the company wants to earn 600 Euros,
so make 100 profit.
435
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:36,274
Where does the money come from
436
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:39,434
in the economy as a whole so
companies can make profits?
437
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:44,715
That's a good question.
438
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:49,159
Because that's the precondition
439
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:51,830
for assets to grow, isn't it?
- Yes.
440
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:55,990
So I can imagine... it's a
complex question
441
00:39:56,320 --> 00:40:00,234
and I lack to some extent the
technical background
442
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:02,393
to explain it well
443
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:07,959
in terms of value creation, but...
444
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:13,119
let me think about this.
445
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:15,398
Can we defer that question to later?
446
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:16,830
Yes, of course,
447
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:19,715
I'll move on to another
question that I've also...
448
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:23,192
It's a good question, but insanely
complicated to answer.
449
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,433
Where does money for profits come from?
450
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:47,870
It's an extremely interesting point that
451
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:50,317
we feel that money comes from work.
452
00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:52,831
I go to work and I get money,
453
00:40:53,240 --> 00:40:55,709
as if it's my work that's somehow
creating the money.
454
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:58,720
We used to, well, I didn't, but
455
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:00,952
a caveman would go to the woods,
456
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:03,715
gather nuts and berries, hunt animals
457
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:05,639
and that was his income,
458
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:07,639
from 'work' in quotes.
459
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,356
And we still think that's
how it works today,
460
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:12,120
but it doesn't.
461
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:15,359
In fact, your income
462
00:41:15,720 --> 00:41:18,360
only exists because we've built houses.
463
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:21,718
That means you're actually
dependent on us investing
464
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:25,318
making things, building houses,
for your job to exist.
465
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:28,070
Work as much as you want,
466
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:31,552
nothing will happen if we aren't
willing to invest.
467
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:56,990
And we only invest if we think
we'll make a profit.
468
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:01,391
And the profit outlook depends on the
growth of the money supply.
469
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:03,393
Exactly.
- There's the drama.
470
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:11,676
Profit outlook depends on
growth of money supply.
471
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:14,072
Our game's money supply has
been shrinking,
472
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:17,393
but in the economy as a whole it
has to grow permanently
473
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:21,237
and we can see in reality it's grown
continuously since 1948.
474
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:34,600
Hello Ms Losmann, please
submit your questions
475
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:37,595
for the interview with our BMW
Chief Financial Officer
476
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:39,400
in writing in advance.
477
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:47,437
Our strategic goal, especially in our
core segment, automotive,
478
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:50,116
is a margin of 8-10%.
479
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:52,392
We have not achieved that.
480
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:01,798
The margin is what's left
481
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:06,030
after subtracting
expenditure from revenue.
482
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:09,837
So on revenue of 100 Euros,
483
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:13,153
we want to earn 8-10 Euros.
484
00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:15,719
And as I said,
485
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:20,635
we did not achieve that
strategic goal in 2018.
486
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:22,235
But even so,
487
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:25,792
compared to our competitors,
488
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:30,313
our 7.2% is a very, very good result.
489
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:40,117
Every company wants to make profits.
490
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:44,395
And I ask myself, OK, but where do those
7.2% profits come from,
491
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:47,395
that the corporate sector
wants to earn extra?
492
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:50,596
I know not everyone makes 7.2%...
493
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:55,118
We fight for customers, and the
customer finances the company,
494
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:58,672
by buying the product, that's the
logic you mean, isn't it?
495
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:02,311
Well, yes, but also, where does the
customer actually get this money?
496
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:04,274
The bottom line is,
497
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:06,632
the corporate sector wants
to make profits,
498
00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:11,558
to get more money out of
circulation than it puts in
499
00:46:12,240 --> 00:46:15,312
so looking at the whole
economy I ask myself:
500
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:17,752
who takes on the debt for that?
501
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:21,875
Who takes the...
502
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:26,510
OK, let me try from the
other perspective...
503
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:32,318
Is this the question 'where does
economic growth come from?'
504
00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:36,274
Profits come to economic growth,
so basically yes.
505
00:46:40,240 --> 00:46:42,755
Ask it again, so I can
repeat the question.
506
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:47,712
Where do profits come from, how does
economic growth happen?
507
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:50,197
Economic growth...
508
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:54,833
Companies contribute very significantly
509
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:57,670
to economic growth.
510
00:46:58,200 --> 00:47:00,954
It's like a, I could
describe it as a kind,
511
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:03,397
like a kind of circulation.
512
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:08,269
Particularly in a
technology-driven industry
513
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:12,510
like the automotive industry,
514
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:14,439
economic growth is driven
515
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:17,594
in the first place by innovation.
516
00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:22,392
We invest in research and development
517
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:25,520
and produce, develop and produce thereby
518
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:30,199
products that fortunately
customers like very much,
519
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:35,032
and so are prepared to pay more
for those products,
520
00:47:35,640 --> 00:47:39,793
than we spent making them.
521
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:57,434
I'd be interested to know how
important the money supply
522
00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:01,231
and its expansion are in your
profit forecasts.
523
00:48:01,720 --> 00:48:03,359
Do you look at factors like that?
524
00:48:03,720 --> 00:48:07,077
Yes, we do look very very closely
at factors like that.
525
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:09,557
You can roughly say
526
00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:13,716
that every second vehicle
we sell worldwide
527
00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:17,073
is refinanced by the customer
528
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:20,035
through BMW Financial Services.
529
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:23,990
So is it fair to say that through
your credit system,
530
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:28,599
vehicle financing, you're also creating
the money for your own profits?
531
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:33,513
Well, the financial services
division is also profitable...
532
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:36,349
I'm talking about in the context
of the whole economy,
533
00:48:36,720 --> 00:48:39,110
meaning: when you issue a vehicle loan
534
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:40,794
that is a new credit -
535
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:44,039
you're helping expand the money supply.
536
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:46,631
Which also helps your
profit expectations.
537
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:50,072
It helps profit expectations because
538
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:53,634
we sell a certain share of our vehicles
539
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:56,431
on a credit basis
540
00:48:58,400 --> 00:49:01,120
50% penetration
541
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:03,075
and
542
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:07,395
that's... we are a part of
543
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:10,275
the financial banking system
544
00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:13,070
and so are bound by all the rules
545
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:16,351
that also apply to commercial banks.
546
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:27,836
It also has a very great deal to do with
547
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:31,591
what's called consumer sentiment.
548
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:33,275
How ready is the customer,
549
00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:36,036
whether or not he has
sufficient resources,
550
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:40,673
how ready is the customer to
invest funds in a product
551
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:44,437
and to pay more for it
552
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:47,998
than we spent making it.
553
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:51,034
And the money supply must also increase,
mustn't it?
554
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:54,075
The money supply increases...
555
00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:57,354
The money supply does increase,
556
00:49:57,760 --> 00:50:00,832
as national economies grow.
557
00:50:02,640 --> 00:50:04,871
The money supply
automatically grows then.
558
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:08,160
And the national economies grow
because more is invested.
559
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:10,278
Innovated and invested.
560
00:50:10,600 --> 00:50:13,240
And you need new money again for that.
- Yes.
561
00:50:24,440 --> 00:50:28,434
Money supply grows as economy grows.
562
00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:41,557
Economy grows as money supply grows.
563
00:50:54,880 --> 00:50:58,510
So if the conditions that allow
companies to make profits
564
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:01,435
necessarily go in paradoxical circles,
565
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:04,031
why do companies have to
make profits at all?
566
00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:06,079
OK, look, people like you
567
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:09,712
who don't understand the first thing
568
00:51:10,040 --> 00:51:12,396
about business economies
and the economy.
569
00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:15,839
When you ask me a question like that,
it's like asking
570
00:51:16,240 --> 00:51:18,391
why a rock falls downwards
571
00:51:18,720 --> 00:51:20,518
and not upwards.
572
00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:22,593
Well, for most of human history,
573
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:25,196
by that definition, rocks fell upwards,
574
00:51:25,480 --> 00:51:27,392
as there was no profit-based economy.
575
00:51:27,840 --> 00:51:29,513
Just a minute, let me explain
576
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:32,151
why this question is offensive.
577
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:33,835
OK, I can't wait.
578
00:51:34,320 --> 00:51:37,392
What most people don't get is this:
579
00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:42,039
Repayments of loans don't appear in
profit and loss accounts.
580
00:51:42,880 --> 00:51:46,396
If you say now, I have a profit and loss
account and at the bottom it says
581
00:51:46,720 --> 00:51:48,359
I have precisely zero Euros profit,
582
00:51:48,720 --> 00:51:51,838
then you have no surplus money
to repay your loans.
583
00:51:52,200 --> 00:51:55,557
So companies have to make profits,
to repay their debts?
584
00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:57,320
Exactly.
585
00:51:58,040 --> 00:52:01,033
So now, looking at the whole economy:
586
00:52:01,440 --> 00:52:03,557
can everyone make a profit at once?
587
00:52:04,720 --> 00:52:06,279
Yes, why not?
588
00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:09,640
The money supply would have to
increase... - No.
589
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:13,397
If everyone makes a profit, earn more on
their invested capital.
590
00:52:13,920 --> 00:52:16,754
I don't understand, why are you on
about the money supply?
591
00:52:17,120 --> 00:52:19,077
You can't put in an amount X
592
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:22,751
and expect to take out an
amount X plus 0.03%.
593
00:52:23,080 --> 00:52:25,515
Look, you're talking to the
wrong person here,
594
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:28,355
I don't care about this at all,
595
00:52:28,720 --> 00:52:32,236
because money supply management in
China, the US and other countries...
596
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:34,392
Write a doctoral thesis,
597
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:37,719
and it would change nothing at all.
- Oh, I see.
598
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:05,755
I do think this is an interesting issue.
599
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:07,719
I studied economic theory
600
00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:10,197
no one learns how the
monetary system works.
601
00:53:10,600 --> 00:53:13,513
Not only do they not learn,
they learn it wrong.
602
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:16,998
Because most economists just don't have
anything to do with it.
603
00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:19,551
We held an event at university,
604
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:21,957
long time ago, at Leipzig,
605
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:25,518
and the subject was money and we
invited macroeconomists,
606
00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:28,435
People who were analysing the
economy as a whole.
607
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:30,599
And they said: 'That's not my subject,
608
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:33,310
we can't talk about that.'
I think that says a lot.
609
00:53:33,720 --> 00:53:36,952
The problem is, I had a meeting
610
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:40,318
with a professor who was also talking
about monetary theory,
611
00:53:40,760 --> 00:53:43,070
and then the equilibrium models
612
00:53:43,440 --> 00:53:45,557
that they endlessly teach
at universities
613
00:53:45,920 --> 00:53:48,151
and when I pointed out to him
614
00:53:48,440 --> 00:53:51,035
that the basic assumption on
which all these systems
615
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:53,238
and models depend is false,
616
00:53:53,600 --> 00:53:57,037
he said: 'Yes, you're right, but I'm not
interested in the real world.'
617
00:53:58,320 --> 00:54:01,870
Honest, at least. - Verbatim! Yes, I
think I wrong-footed him,
618
00:54:02,240 --> 00:54:05,278
for him to admit that he's not
interested in the real world,
619
00:54:05,640 --> 00:54:07,393
but that is symptomatic.
620
00:54:07,800 --> 00:54:11,874
The worst thing I think
is that they know,
621
00:54:12,240 --> 00:54:13,993
they know that these models
622
00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:17,711
they drum into their students' heads
623
00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:19,395
don't work in reality.
624
00:54:19,840 --> 00:54:21,433
Yes, and Norbert Häring also said
625
00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:24,275
economic science serves the
disguise of power.
626
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:26,751
And I think there's something in that.
627
00:55:12,280 --> 00:55:13,680
Hello Ms Losmann,
628
00:55:14,000 --> 00:55:16,993
just to be clear, I've switched to
my private account,
629
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:20,438
because this is purely my
personal opinion.
630
00:55:20,880 --> 00:55:24,396
I must therefore not be quoted
without further agreement.
631
00:55:26,080 --> 00:55:27,639
Concerning your question:
632
00:55:28,240 --> 00:55:30,675
increasing profits and
increasing economic growth
633
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:33,555
require a continuous expansion in debt.
634
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:36,437
This is the notorious
'elephant in the room'
635
00:55:36,840 --> 00:55:38,399
about which nobody talks.
636
00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:44,638
The key player in
capitalism is the debtor,
637
00:55:45,080 --> 00:55:48,630
who makes others' profits and
asset growth possible.
638
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:55,599
How does profit come about? Where does
money for profits come from?
639
00:56:21,480 --> 00:56:24,996
The key player is the debtor.
640
00:56:33,680 --> 00:56:36,036
Who assumes the debts?
641
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:40,150
I'll go through the state of play again,
to keep us up to speed.
642
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:45,037
Dag now only has 300€ left,
643
00:56:45,920 --> 00:56:48,355
he's been paying rent the whole time
644
00:56:48,800 --> 00:56:53,511
and has no income source because
nobody's building anymore.
645
00:56:53,840 --> 00:56:57,834
So jobs are scarce because
there's no investment.
646
00:56:58,240 --> 00:57:01,790
But we saw at the beginning, when
private enterprise was investing,
647
00:57:02,160 --> 00:57:03,753
he was earning well and had assets
648
00:57:04,120 --> 00:57:06,874
and those assets were based on
private enterprise debts,
649
00:57:07,200 --> 00:57:09,954
you were all investing because you
were expecting profit.
650
00:57:10,320 --> 00:57:12,630
And as private enterprise invests less,
651
00:57:13,000 --> 00:57:16,994
from a certain phase in the economy when
the market's saturated,
652
00:57:17,400 --> 00:57:20,040
wages fall or jobs are lost
653
00:57:20,400 --> 00:57:22,960
and then the state has to
come in and invest
654
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:25,789
financing jobs in certain areas
655
00:57:26,200 --> 00:57:28,396
or increasing or creating
welfare systems,
656
00:57:28,920 --> 00:57:30,718
through which money then flows
657
00:57:31,080 --> 00:57:33,595
to those no longer financed by
private enterprise,
658
00:57:34,000 --> 00:57:36,799
but this money flows via
the welfare system
659
00:57:37,120 --> 00:57:39,157
ultimately into the pockets of owners,
660
00:57:39,560 --> 00:57:41,631
property owners and others,
661
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:46,358
who are thus able to keep making income
that they couldn't otherwise make.
662
00:57:46,680 --> 00:57:49,718
Otherwise he'd really be
sleeping under a bridge
663
00:57:50,120 --> 00:57:51,759
not paying any more rent.
664
00:57:52,120 --> 00:57:55,272
But because he's paying rent,
financed by the state,
665
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:58,354
he's enabling income for
private individuals.
666
00:57:58,760 --> 00:58:00,433
So some private profits
667
00:58:00,880 --> 00:58:02,951
are financed by government debt.
668
00:58:03,440 --> 00:58:07,878
Seen in this light, by my definition,
the state is a source of profit.
669
00:58:13,680 --> 00:58:16,559
debt - e.g. government debt
670
00:58:25,040 --> 00:58:28,750
Right, so let me officially welcome you
671
00:58:29,120 --> 00:58:32,352
to the presentation of the eighth
672
00:58:32,880 --> 00:58:36,760
Global Wealth Report, which
we have compiled.
673
00:58:38,000 --> 00:58:41,038
Trends this year have again
been very positive,
674
00:58:41,560 --> 00:58:43,438
with gross monetary assets
675
00:58:43,880 --> 00:58:48,193
rising by 7.1% globally.
676
00:58:48,600 --> 00:58:50,353
The industrialized nations
677
00:58:50,720 --> 00:58:53,633
have again accelerated their
asset growth somewhat,
678
00:58:54,000 --> 00:58:57,516
but less so than the emerging economies.
679
00:58:58,240 --> 00:59:00,391
Now comes something else
quite interesting.
680
00:59:00,800 --> 00:59:03,634
Global trends in debt,
681
00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:06,600
I mean preparedness to take on debt,
682
00:59:07,000 --> 00:59:08,559
has again increased markedly.
683
00:59:09,000 --> 00:59:11,310
We still aren't seeing
anything excessive
684
00:59:11,720 --> 00:59:13,951
at least not on a global scale,
685
00:59:14,360 --> 00:59:16,272
but I think we can say that
686
00:59:16,840 --> 00:59:19,719
a debt cycle has turned.
687
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:22,550
Do you see a connection
between government debt
688
00:59:23,000 --> 00:59:24,639
and the increase of private assets,
689
00:59:25,080 --> 00:59:27,800
I mean, when I think of
690
00:59:29,120 --> 00:59:31,954
Australia, New Zealand, Japan and
many other countries,
691
00:59:32,280 --> 00:59:34,033
I seem to see a correlation
692
00:59:34,400 --> 00:59:36,995
between levels of government debt
and private wealth.
693
00:59:37,400 --> 00:59:39,232
That's a very complex issue.
694
00:59:39,760 --> 00:59:41,956
The ability to build up monetary assets
695
00:59:42,360 --> 00:59:44,511
naturally depends on government policy
696
00:59:44,880 --> 00:59:48,760
and for sure in Germany there
are some restrictions,
697
00:59:49,160 --> 00:59:51,720
in the sense that the burden of tax
698
00:59:52,080 --> 00:59:56,359
and social security contributions
is very, very high.
699
00:59:56,920 --> 00:59:58,354
You're talking about tax relief,
700
00:59:58,760 --> 01:00:00,797
but I mean overall economic balance.
701
01:00:01,120 --> 01:00:02,713
In the total global balance,
702
01:00:03,040 --> 01:00:05,794
the total of all debit must equal
the total of all credit.
703
01:00:06,200 --> 01:00:09,159
That means that, if one
sector of the economy
704
01:00:09,560 --> 01:00:11,392
shows real net monetary assets,
705
01:00:11,760 --> 01:00:15,231
then there must be net
liabilities somewhere.
706
01:00:16,000 --> 01:00:20,552
All countries where large private
wealth has been amassed,
707
01:00:20,920 --> 01:00:22,513
also have high public debts.
708
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:29,790
Yes, it's a difficult situation
709
01:00:30,240 --> 01:00:33,677
to manage, that's true.
710
01:00:34,120 --> 01:00:37,079
A buildup of assets is always mirrored
711
01:00:37,400 --> 01:00:39,869
in a buildup of debts
712
01:00:40,720 --> 01:00:42,712
in other sectors of the economy,
713
01:00:43,120 --> 01:00:44,315
that's entirely correct.
714
01:00:45,800 --> 01:00:49,077
In some Asian countries, for example,
715
01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:52,319
private households' increasing assets
716
01:00:52,720 --> 01:00:56,270
are reflected in an explosion
of business debt.
717
01:00:56,800 --> 01:01:01,511
In many European countries,
rising monetary assets
718
01:01:02,000 --> 01:01:05,960
are above all, or reflect
increasing public debt.
719
01:01:06,280 --> 01:01:07,953
The state makes more debts
720
01:01:08,280 --> 01:01:11,990
as private households build assets.
721
01:01:24,000 --> 01:01:26,595
And how does this process work, when
states take on debt,
722
01:01:27,000 --> 01:01:29,151
how does it happen,
technically speaking?
723
01:01:29,600 --> 01:01:33,150
States issue, or create new
government bonds
724
01:01:33,560 --> 01:01:36,359
and sell these to what are
called accredited banks.
725
01:01:36,720 --> 01:01:40,680
To buy the bonds, these banks in
turn create new money.
726
01:01:41,920 --> 01:01:44,276
So every new issue of government bonds
727
01:01:44,600 --> 01:01:47,957
increases the money supply, and that's
desirable, deliberate.
728
01:01:50,080 --> 01:01:52,197
The state only intervenes as debtor
729
01:01:52,560 --> 01:01:54,870
because private
households or enterprises
730
01:01:55,200 --> 01:01:57,999
are not taking out enough loans, but
731
01:01:58,360 --> 01:02:01,000
are accumulating money as
private assets.
732
01:02:01,800 --> 01:02:03,871
To prevent the money supply shrinking,
733
01:02:04,280 --> 01:02:06,840
the state injects money with new debt.
734
01:02:07,800 --> 01:02:10,269
So what then happens to the
government IOUs,
735
01:02:10,640 --> 01:02:12,711
I mean the new government bonds?
736
01:02:13,200 --> 01:02:15,431
Well, the banks sell the
government bonds on
737
01:02:15,880 --> 01:02:17,519
as securities on the capital market,
738
01:02:17,920 --> 01:02:20,116
so public debt becomes an investment
739
01:02:20,440 --> 01:02:21,999
for accumulated assets.
740
01:02:26,920 --> 01:02:28,877
PIMCO Investment company -
741
01:02:29,440 --> 01:02:33,593
largest active fund manager of
corporate and government bonds
742
01:03:32,880 --> 01:03:34,234
Dear Ms Losmann,
743
01:03:34,640 --> 01:03:39,032
You may film in the room
before the conference.
744
01:03:39,480 --> 01:03:43,952
However, we cannot now agree to filming
during the conference itself.
745
01:03:45,720 --> 01:03:47,234
You may by all means, however
746
01:03:47,600 --> 01:03:51,071
film the gentlemen from outside our
transparent conference room.
747
01:04:14,720 --> 01:04:17,519
Furthermore, our Head of
Portfolio Management,
748
01:04:17,920 --> 01:04:20,879
Andrew Bosomworth, is
available for an interview.
749
01:04:24,480 --> 01:04:27,075
So the basic building blocks
of capital markets
750
01:04:27,640 --> 01:04:30,109
are shares and bonds.
751
01:04:30,680 --> 01:04:33,514
Pimco mainly manages bonds.
752
01:04:36,040 --> 01:04:38,555
Large companies and state actors
753
01:04:39,000 --> 01:04:41,879
have access to the capital markets.
754
01:04:42,200 --> 01:04:45,671
That means they as borrowers
can obtain money here
755
01:04:46,040 --> 01:04:50,751
through the capital markets, in
the form of bonds.
756
01:04:53,680 --> 01:04:56,149
And we at Pimco study
757
01:04:56,560 --> 01:04:59,951
the economic viability, financial
soundness and profitability,
758
01:05:00,440 --> 01:05:04,514
what are the potential returns
on particular bonds.
759
01:05:06,040 --> 01:05:08,111
And decide on that basis,
760
01:05:08,440 --> 01:05:10,955
and a bond is bought or sold.
761
01:05:12,640 --> 01:05:16,554
Now, you want your money
back plus a return,
762
01:05:17,480 --> 01:05:19,676
what makes that possible?
763
01:05:20,080 --> 01:05:21,355
In the whole economy?
764
01:05:21,720 --> 01:05:23,996
From our point of view as investor,
765
01:05:24,360 --> 01:05:26,556
economic growth is important,
766
01:05:27,080 --> 01:05:30,278
because borrowers' ability
767
01:05:30,680 --> 01:05:33,639
to repay their debts is related
to economic growth.
768
01:05:43,320 --> 01:05:47,553
And if a state has growth
and tax revenues,
769
01:05:48,000 --> 01:05:51,118
it's better placed to repay
government bonds,
770
01:05:51,600 --> 01:05:56,152
meaning debts plus interest,
when they mature.
771
01:05:58,080 --> 01:06:00,231
How large are the assets
you manage here?
772
01:06:00,640 --> 01:06:02,757
And roughly how high are the returns
773
01:06:03,080 --> 01:06:05,436
you achieve with those assets?
774
01:06:06,200 --> 01:06:08,669
The total asset volume we manage
775
01:06:09,080 --> 01:06:12,198
is USD 1.5 billion,
776
01:06:12,760 --> 01:06:14,592
so in Euros
777
01:06:15,000 --> 01:06:17,640
just under 1.5 billion.
778
01:06:18,400 --> 01:06:19,959
Sorry, not billion...
779
01:06:21,440 --> 01:06:22,430
trillion.
780
01:06:28,640 --> 01:06:33,032
Total managed assets: USD 1.88
trillion (as of August 2019)
781
01:06:36,200 --> 01:06:40,353
sample calculation: at a
return of 5% per annum
782
01:06:44,880 --> 01:06:47,679
So government debt has a twofold effect,
doesn't it?
783
01:06:48,120 --> 01:06:50,999
First, it increases the money supply
784
01:06:51,400 --> 01:06:53,631
so the private economy can
keep making a profit,
785
01:06:54,000 --> 01:06:55,832
I mean take more money than it spends.
786
01:06:56,320 --> 01:06:58,960
Secondly, those saved profits
can be reinvested
787
01:06:59,280 --> 01:07:01,078
in government bonds,
788
01:07:01,480 --> 01:07:03,551
generating more returns.
789
01:07:04,440 --> 01:07:06,750
Yes, that's a fair summary.
790
01:07:07,400 --> 01:07:10,199
And now with European countries
already having high debts,
791
01:07:10,600 --> 01:07:11,875
some overindebted,
792
01:07:12,240 --> 01:07:14,277
the European Central Bank
steps in anyway
793
01:07:14,640 --> 01:07:17,599
to do this, acting as
debtor of last resort.
794
01:07:18,480 --> 01:07:21,040
There simply has to be enough
money in circulation,
795
01:07:21,440 --> 01:07:23,716
but that gets harder, the
bigger the sums are
796
01:07:24,120 --> 01:07:26,874
that are going out again as
returns on assets.
797
01:07:59,840 --> 01:08:01,035
Then there's distribution:
798
01:08:01,440 --> 01:08:03,716
if money goes not to who needs things,
799
01:08:04,080 --> 01:08:06,720
but to those whose needs are met,
800
01:08:07,120 --> 01:08:08,554
it may not circulate at all.
801
01:08:08,920 --> 01:08:11,116
But economics tends not to see that.
802
01:08:11,440 --> 01:08:13,796
Economics sees the overall situation
803
01:08:14,160 --> 01:08:16,277
and that misses something, you're right,
804
01:08:16,640 --> 01:08:19,951
and sadly the distribution problem
is rarely discussed
805
01:08:20,440 --> 01:08:22,557
because of the envy debate.
806
01:08:23,320 --> 01:08:25,596
They always call it the envy debate.
807
01:08:26,000 --> 01:08:29,357
And when people say
households aren't in debt,
808
01:08:29,680 --> 01:08:32,798
they have accumulated assets,
net assets,
809
01:08:33,320 --> 01:08:37,360
they're ignoring the fact that
most of these net assets
810
01:08:37,720 --> 01:08:40,599
belong only to a small
fraction of households
811
01:08:41,000 --> 01:08:44,596
and many of them very much are in debt.
812
01:08:45,080 --> 01:08:46,673
And that's a big problem,
813
01:08:47,000 --> 01:08:50,038
because statistics often uses
the arithmetic mean.
814
01:08:50,440 --> 01:08:53,035
'The mean is the burial
shroud of statistics',
815
01:08:53,440 --> 01:08:55,113
Right.
- Flattens everything.
816
01:08:55,440 --> 01:08:56,760
But we love using the mean,
817
01:08:57,160 --> 01:08:58,992
because it seems so insightful at first,
818
01:08:59,400 --> 01:09:00,880
and actually...
- The average.
819
01:09:01,240 --> 01:09:03,800
The average, taking an average,
820
01:09:04,160 --> 01:09:06,959
but the unequal distribution doesn't
show up in that at all.
821
01:09:07,280 --> 01:09:10,398
Correct.
- And it gets worse and worse,
822
01:09:10,800 --> 01:09:12,678
the more unequal the distribution is.
823
01:09:13,040 --> 01:09:15,111
So you have to see the extremes,
824
01:09:15,560 --> 01:09:17,950
the poorest and the richest, to know.
825
01:09:21,840 --> 01:09:25,151
Who is profiting from this? Who is
creaming off these profits,
826
01:09:25,560 --> 01:09:28,758
well, it's usually just the
top 10 percent.
827
01:10:29,200 --> 01:10:32,272
But assets arise that aren't
just sitting there,
828
01:10:32,600 --> 01:10:34,956
but also have economic and
political influence,
829
01:10:35,320 --> 01:10:37,994
so it isn't an accounting trick to say
830
01:10:38,320 --> 01:10:41,791
percentage-wise the assets of the
rich grow more slowly,
831
01:10:42,160 --> 01:10:43,992
but over the long term,
832
01:10:44,360 --> 01:10:47,956
50 years ahead, that
doesn't alter the fact
833
01:10:48,560 --> 01:10:50,153
that the rich
834
01:10:50,560 --> 01:10:52,756
are much richer and getting ever richer.
835
01:10:54,800 --> 01:10:56,314
That's true. Yes.
836
01:10:56,800 --> 01:11:00,191
Small growth rates on large assets
837
01:11:00,600 --> 01:11:02,751
bring considerable growth
838
01:11:03,120 --> 01:11:05,794
many times bigger than large growth
rates on small assets.
839
01:11:06,160 --> 01:11:09,676
That's true of asset growth within
countries, and also between countries:
840
01:11:10,000 --> 01:11:12,515
the absolute differences increase.
841
01:11:20,600 --> 01:11:23,752
If private assets are growing like that,
growing ever more,
842
01:11:24,160 --> 01:11:26,959
what does that mean for the other
side of the coin, debt?
843
01:11:27,280 --> 01:11:29,749
So if states take on debt
844
01:11:30,120 --> 01:11:31,952
or businesses to invest
845
01:11:32,240 --> 01:11:34,675
or households to build houses,
846
01:11:35,000 --> 01:11:37,231
that debt creates
847
01:11:38,000 --> 01:11:40,993
more economic activity and more growth.
848
01:11:41,640 --> 01:11:43,120
On the face of it, that's good,
849
01:11:43,440 --> 01:11:46,160
which is why central banks
850
01:11:46,440 --> 01:11:48,079
try to stimulate this kind of debt
851
01:11:48,400 --> 01:11:52,519
somehow in their policies.
852
01:11:52,920 --> 01:11:55,560
But it can come back and bite you.
853
01:11:58,280 --> 01:12:00,840
The financial backers might rethink,
might say:
854
01:12:01,160 --> 01:12:02,992
Well, what growth do they need,
855
01:12:03,640 --> 01:12:07,236
and then calculate scenarios, that tend
not to work out all that favourably
856
01:12:07,600 --> 01:12:10,274
and then at some point the
financial markets
857
01:12:10,600 --> 01:12:13,798
and capital markets will lose
confidence in these economies.
858
01:12:15,120 --> 01:12:18,033
Then there'll be no more credit
- on the contrary,
859
01:12:18,400 --> 01:12:20,392
because overindebted countries
860
01:12:20,800 --> 01:12:23,190
are cut off completely
from the credit tap
861
01:12:24,120 --> 01:12:27,591
and it all goes to rack and
ruin very quickly.
862
01:12:50,040 --> 01:12:52,874
So on the one hand, private
wealth can grow
863
01:12:53,280 --> 01:12:54,760
because states take on debt
864
01:12:55,160 --> 01:12:58,198
and on the other, capital providers
cut off money to states
865
01:12:58,480 --> 01:13:00,153
if they take on too much debt.
866
01:13:00,440 --> 01:13:02,272
How can this make sense?
867
01:13:02,600 --> 01:13:06,230
Well, because it's long been believed
868
01:13:06,640 --> 01:13:09,951
that states should borrow on the
so-called capital market.
869
01:13:10,880 --> 01:13:14,715
But that makes states depend on
private capital providers,
870
01:13:15,040 --> 01:13:18,033
and effectively obliges them to
promote economic growth
871
01:13:18,440 --> 01:13:21,956
to raise their tax revenues or
privatise public assets
872
01:13:22,360 --> 01:13:23,953
if their debts get too high.
873
01:13:25,400 --> 01:13:27,631
That brings us to where we are today:
874
01:13:28,120 --> 01:13:31,158
many projects can no longer be funded
875
01:13:31,480 --> 01:13:33,551
simply because they don't
offer the returns
876
01:13:33,920 --> 01:13:35,877
private capital providers expect.
877
01:13:37,200 --> 01:13:40,398
This might affect the fight
against high unemployment,
878
01:13:40,840 --> 01:13:44,436
or make funding education, social care,
infrastructure,
879
01:13:45,160 --> 01:13:46,389
not least the shift
880
01:13:46,720 --> 01:13:49,315
towards an ecologically
sustainable economy
881
01:13:49,880 --> 01:13:52,395
impossible to fund because
not profitable.
882
01:13:53,600 --> 01:13:56,593
So democratic governments can no
longer decide freely
883
01:13:57,000 --> 01:13:58,116
what to finance,
884
01:13:58,480 --> 01:14:00,836
they can only present their
budgets with proposals
885
01:14:01,160 --> 01:14:02,958
for what they'd like to finance
886
01:14:03,320 --> 01:14:05,994
for the private capital
providers to approve.
887
01:14:07,320 --> 01:14:10,358
This creates a very urgent
political issue:
888
01:14:11,000 --> 01:14:14,198
shouldn't we, as a democratic society,
decide for ourselves
889
01:14:14,480 --> 01:14:16,119
what expenditure we find sensible
890
01:14:16,440 --> 01:14:19,717
and then have the state create
the money for that?
891
01:14:20,640 --> 01:14:23,838
Why should we as states not have
the same privilege
892
01:14:24,160 --> 01:14:26,117
as profit-orientated private banks?
893
01:14:27,680 --> 01:14:31,151
Wouldn't public debt just keep rising?
894
01:14:31,640 --> 01:14:35,190
Well, if we assume that private wealth
just keeps on growing,
895
01:14:35,600 --> 01:14:38,513
we need profits and for
that we need debts.
896
01:14:38,920 --> 01:14:41,958
And someone has to take on those debts.
897
01:14:42,280 --> 01:14:45,876
If it's not the state, because capital
providers prefer to break even,
898
01:14:46,200 --> 01:14:48,840
so state spending falls,
899
01:14:49,280 --> 01:14:53,240
then private households have to step
in and assume the debt,
900
01:14:54,320 --> 01:14:58,200
e.g. paying for children's schooling
that's no longer state-funded,
901
01:14:58,680 --> 01:15:02,356
or higher rents because public
housing is privatised.
902
01:15:03,480 --> 01:15:07,076
Wouldn't it be better for us, the state,
to take on these debts directly,
903
01:15:07,440 --> 01:15:10,592
and make ourselves independent of
the capital providers?
904
01:15:24,400 --> 01:15:26,278
But where does it all go from here?
905
01:15:26,640 --> 01:15:29,439
If more profit and economic growth
906
01:15:29,880 --> 01:15:32,076
come only at the price of more debt?
907
01:15:33,040 --> 01:15:35,157
Why can't we just stop growing?
908
01:15:45,400 --> 01:15:47,392
The dilemma is, there's
only investment -
909
01:15:47,800 --> 01:15:51,714
economic activity only happens - if
whoever has money to put in
910
01:15:52,480 --> 01:15:53,880
expects returns.
911
01:15:54,200 --> 01:15:57,876
So they hope to take out more
than they put in.
912
01:15:58,240 --> 01:15:59,390
For me, the dilemma is
913
01:15:59,760 --> 01:16:01,877
that this idea of
914
01:16:02,240 --> 01:16:06,712
'profit is the essential driver
of economic activity'
915
01:16:07,560 --> 01:16:10,632
has become so fixed in our heads that
we take it for granted.
916
01:16:11,040 --> 01:16:13,077
Now there was a short period in history
917
01:16:13,400 --> 01:16:15,232
when real profit could be made,
918
01:16:15,600 --> 01:16:19,310
because there were two monetary systems,
but now it's only possible
919
01:16:19,880 --> 01:16:21,872
through the chain-letter system,
920
01:16:23,120 --> 01:16:25,316
where someone has to have the debt -
921
01:16:25,680 --> 01:16:26,750
to take out a loan
922
01:16:27,120 --> 01:16:30,352
without expecting to repay it, so that
others can accumulate assets.
923
01:16:30,680 --> 01:16:33,878
This sustains the illusion of perpetual
exploitation of nature
924
01:16:34,280 --> 01:16:37,591
and transformation of nature... you can
still feel that today.
925
01:16:38,000 --> 01:16:40,879
So it's 'this creates value',
926
01:16:41,200 --> 01:16:43,112
they always says 'this creates value',
927
01:16:43,440 --> 01:16:46,831
I'm making use of something, we have a
lot more glasses today,
928
01:16:47,160 --> 01:16:50,119
not needing them all, using up
more and more nature,
929
01:16:50,480 --> 01:16:53,632
in buildings, more and more concrete,
we're even short of sand,
930
01:16:54,000 --> 01:16:55,354
one of the most abundant
931
01:16:55,680 --> 01:16:58,957
natural resources and we're short of it,
932
01:16:59,280 --> 01:17:03,069
using more and more so we feel
we're getting richer
933
01:17:03,400 --> 01:17:06,711
but that misses how we're impoverished
by the loss of nature.
934
01:17:07,080 --> 01:17:10,312
So we still have that illusion even
today, in my opinion.
935
01:17:10,720 --> 01:17:13,713
And that's the link between capitalism
and ecocrisis. - Exactly.
936
01:18:00,760 --> 01:18:04,390
At the heart of capitalism is
continuous increase of capital.
937
01:18:05,640 --> 01:18:09,429
More and more capital needs a
growing money supply.
938
01:18:09,880 --> 01:18:12,952
Which requires constant new
investment opportunities.
939
01:18:18,920 --> 01:18:21,310
And here is the fundamental problem.
940
01:18:21,720 --> 01:18:26,397
Only profit-oriented projects attract
investment and reinvestment.
941
01:18:27,720 --> 01:18:30,792
Simple example: You want to buy
a patch of woodland.
942
01:18:31,560 --> 01:18:35,793
If you just want to leave it alone, you
won't get any financing.
943
01:18:37,200 --> 01:18:40,716
You can only get financing if you're
going to develop it.
944
01:18:41,160 --> 01:18:44,790
At the very least, cut some of it down
and turn the timber into money.
945
01:18:45,240 --> 01:18:49,075
And as long as there are still forests,
this logic of profit seems OK.
946
01:18:50,440 --> 01:18:53,717
But at some point, alas, it
reaches its limit.
947
01:18:57,440 --> 01:19:00,000
At the moment, it's a kind of race.
948
01:19:00,560 --> 01:19:02,074
What's going to collapse first?
949
01:19:02,400 --> 01:19:05,632
Our ecosystem - the Earth
- or capitalism,
950
01:19:06,000 --> 01:19:10,358
which has generated unprecedented
tension between assets and debts.
951
01:19:37,200 --> 01:19:40,511
So you say in the end, debt will be so
high that it can't go on.
952
01:19:40,880 --> 01:19:44,032
Could you perhaps describe where we are,
in which phase,
953
01:19:44,440 --> 01:19:46,830
and what will happen when
it can't go on?
954
01:19:48,600 --> 01:19:50,273
If we compare
955
01:19:51,080 --> 01:19:53,959
these economic cycles with
a football match,
956
01:19:54,240 --> 01:19:57,199
then I think we're definitely
in the second half.
957
01:19:58,040 --> 01:19:59,679
Not the last quarter yet,
958
01:20:00,000 --> 01:20:01,320
but...
959
01:20:02,880 --> 01:20:04,872
debt levels,
960
01:20:05,360 --> 01:20:08,319
in public and private sectors,
961
01:20:08,640 --> 01:20:13,237
have risen in many countries
in recent decades.
962
01:20:13,760 --> 01:20:14,830
And...
963
01:20:17,400 --> 01:20:20,074
how long it can go on,
964
01:20:20,440 --> 01:20:22,830
ultimately depends on economic growth.
965
01:20:23,440 --> 01:20:24,635
If we don't have any,
966
01:20:25,280 --> 01:20:29,069
like in the 1930s,
967
01:20:30,000 --> 01:20:34,677
that could cause too many failures.
968
01:20:35,440 --> 01:20:36,999
Isn't that circular reasoning?
969
01:20:37,360 --> 01:20:40,990
Can there be any economic
growth without new debt?
970
01:20:42,840 --> 01:20:46,675
Or, to put it another way: aren't
today's profits tomorrow's debts?
971
01:20:52,160 --> 01:20:53,071
The...
972
01:20:56,400 --> 01:20:57,311
Yes.
973
01:21:05,000 --> 01:21:09,074
Today's profits are tomorrow's debts.
974
01:21:21,560 --> 01:21:25,315
Today's debts are tomorrow's profits.
975
01:21:25,640 --> 01:21:28,712
Anyone who really looks knows
it's not working.
976
01:21:29,200 --> 01:21:31,396
It's held together by a belief system.
977
01:21:33,280 --> 01:21:36,956
People are stuck in the system wishing
for it somehow to work.
978
01:21:37,800 --> 01:21:40,793
It doesn't need to be logical,
just to keep working.
979
01:21:51,640 --> 01:21:53,154
So I'm a physicist
980
01:21:53,480 --> 01:21:57,520
and for me it started with the question:
'infinite growth on a finite planet?'
981
01:21:57,880 --> 01:22:00,759
An impossibility. Bound to
cause problems.
982
01:22:12,680 --> 01:22:14,797
Actually we want an ecological economy,
983
01:22:15,160 --> 01:22:18,790
so actually, consumption should if
possible tend to decline.
984
01:22:19,160 --> 01:22:23,791
But a fall in demand, in consumption,
would bring crisis in today's system.
985
01:22:28,760 --> 01:22:30,991
What we have is simply an
unstable system.
986
01:22:31,400 --> 01:22:35,440
Where the state has to intervene to stop
the whole thing capsizing.
987
01:22:37,040 --> 01:22:39,714
But if you know that the system is
inherently unstable,
988
01:22:40,080 --> 01:22:44,711
intervening like that is just like
ventilating a patient you know is dead.
989
01:22:45,040 --> 01:22:47,999
And so we ask ourselves, 'How long
can this continue?'
990
01:22:48,400 --> 01:22:51,359
And above all at the cost of rising
inequality of distribution.
991
01:22:54,360 --> 01:22:56,397
We might ask ourselves why
it's like this.
992
01:22:56,760 --> 01:22:59,594
But we lack understanding
and alternatives.
993
01:23:00,240 --> 01:23:03,756
As you say. How long can it go on? We
have to think of alternatives.
994
01:23:23,400 --> 01:23:28,111
Do you really want to close the program?
Close program - Stay in program
995
01:23:41,040 --> 01:23:45,193
Research: Alternatives
79563
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