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Today we will talk about the
Southern Operating Area and
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some conclusions about the strategic situation.
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In the Tokmak direction, the enemy command is
obviously seeking to restore the position of
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its troops at the first position of its
main line of defense near the village
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of Novoprokopivka and the section between it
and the village of Kopani. But in my opinion,
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in fact, they have a slightly different
objective - they are thus trying to force
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the Ukrainian troops to withdraw from the
section between Novoprokopivka and Verbove.
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For this purpose, it apparently planned and
organized a series of attacks in the two
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directions Kopani - Robotyne and Novoprokopivka -
Robotyne, trying to force the advanced AFU units,
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which had previously reached the northern
outskirts of Novoprokopivka village,
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to withdraw northward from these
positions under the threat of a
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bypass from the right flank. Just as with
the AFU units currently fighting between
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Novoprokopivka and Verbove for the first
position of the main enemy line of defense.
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The main point of these attacks was to seek
to reach the western outskirts of Robotyne.
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As part of this plan, over the past 3 days,
the enemy has actively carried out offensive
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assault actions in the mentioned directions
but has only managed to advance 800 meters
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during this time, after which it presumably
temporarily ceased its intensive attacks.
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At the moment, it is evident that their command
is reinforcing its forward units in this direction
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and preparing to resume another series of
assault actions towards the "right side" of
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the Ukrainian grouping, which is conducting combat
operations along the Novoprokopivka-Verbove line.
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In principle, the logic of these steps
and decisions of the enemy command in
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this direction is quite clear. At the moment he
has no other way to restore the position of his
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troops on the first position of his main line
of defense between Novoprokopivka and Verbove.
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They cannot "head-on" displace the Ukrainian
forces from the first position of the main
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defense line with their exhausted forces
in the "south to north" direction. The only
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option left is to try to compel them
to retreat through flanking actions.
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The previous attempt to attack on
the other flank - north-west of
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Verbove village - ended in vain
for the occupants. Moreover,
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the enemy consequently lost control over one
of the heights, which made it a little easier
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for the AFU advanced units that reached
the northwestern outskirts of Verbove.
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In addition, the Ukrainian command parried
this attempt quite successfully by organizing
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a series of attacks in the direction of
Novopokrovka, even further north of this area,
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which in turn cast doubt on the expediency of the
Russian paratroopers' attacks in the Verbove area.
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Therefore, it seems to me
that this is not the end yet.
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The enemy forces will evidently seek
to "restore the position" further by
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attacking the Ukrainian grouping from different
sectors and directions, which is aimed at Tokmak.
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So far the eastern flank is more or less standing,
the enemy is making minimal progress there.
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At this point, I see no prospects for the enemy
to repeat their attempt to encircle the AFU's
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regiment while simultaneously advancing
from Kopani and Novopokrovka to meet them.
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The enemy will be forced to attack
head-on. It is not known what the
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prospects are, but we know that
the occupants do not count losses.
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The situation is far from
stabilized and the western
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flank east of Kopani I have serious concerns.
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Everything is going towards
seeing a "mini-Avdiivka" here.
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