All language subtitles for 23-09-2023dcrtdyyte

Ukraine has intensified its attacks
on the Russian Black Sea Fleet and is

systematically knocking out Russian ships
and military facilities on the peninsula.

Such regular attacks have already turned the
Russian Black Sea Fleet into a flotilla. For them,

every trip to the open sea is a very serious risk.
And I do not rule out the possibility that after a

while they will be forced to partially move their
warships outside the Black Sea, to a safer place.

Although the Russian command still has
to come to this conclusion. And when

the Ukrainian defense forces reach the coast
of the Azov Sea, then there will be serious

risks for the Russian fleet there, so they
have to hurry while they still have time.

Great news, the US is giving a small
experimental batch of ATACMS missiles.

I think the test drive of the Armed
Forces will be successful. Amen!

Perhaps this will be the first unique use of
ATACMS against surface targets, but first we have

to get them, although Russian propagandists
have already started destroying them.

This is probably how they justify
their toothless air defense. ATACMS

will allow strikes not only on the
territory of the Crimean peninsula,

but will greatly simplify the impact on all
footholds within a radius of up to 300 kilometers.

Is Ukraine capable of completely destroying
the Russian Navy? I think so. Every day,

every week, every month, gradually, step by step,

ships will be destroyed, which Russia
will not be able to compensate for.

And I do not exclude the possibility that
before the Russian command realizes that

they need to save their ships, at least the
ones that remain, they will lose more than one

more combat unit. Ukraine has every chance
of destroying the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The Crimean bridge is also a
strategically important object.

But for strikes to be more effective, we
need to reduce the distance from it. And

this can be done by going to the coast
of the Azov Sea. That is, the advance in

Zaporizhzhia region accelerates the process of
an irreversible event on the Crimean bridge.

Ukraine's intelligence chief
believes that the Ukrainian

Armed Forces can break the land border
to Crimea before the onset of winter.

How realistic is such a scenario and
what factors will make it happen?

One of the factors may be the decision of the
Russian command regarding Tokmak. Whether they

will run away from Tokmak, or leave there the
garrisons of suicidal people who will have to

be knocked out from there. That is, surrounding
Tokmak, starting urban battles, all this will

slow down the advance of the Ukrainian army
towards Malitopol, and this must be recognized.

There are different scenarios, but what Budanov
says about the possibility of reaching the Azov

Sea coast by the beginning of winter is quite
possible. There are positive scenarios for the

development of the Ukrainian offensive,
but there are also negative scenarios.

And reaching the Azov coast is
one of the positive scenarios.

If the Ukrainian Armed Forces reach the
administrative border of Crimea this year

or in early 2024, then after consolidating their
positions, the process of creating conditions for

the liberation of Crimea can immediately
begin, and they are already being formed.

But the physical presence of Ukrainian
forces there will accelerate the process.

So when can the scenario begin? Most likely
it will be in 2024 and it will consist of

several phases. The preparatory phase -
without large-scale ground operations on

the peninsula itself. It will be exclusively
remote destruction of the Russian occupiers'

facilities on the peninsula and targeted sabotage
attacks. And the active phase itself may well

begin by the end of 2024, when the conditions
are already in place. And one of the conditions

is the exhaustion of Russian troops on the
peninsula, which we see every day in the news.