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General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhiy
Nayev gave an interview, I highlighted the
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main theses:
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The Russian leadership does not abandon attempts
to establish control over the entire territory
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of Ukraine.
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But so far the enemy has no forces for offensive
actions in other operational directions except
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Donetsk and Luhansk.
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Combat experience has shown the extreme effectiveness
of mine-blast obstacles combined with gunfire.
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Given this, mine laying was significantly
intensified, including in the depth of defense.
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More than 4,000 Russian citizens, most of
whom are mobilized, undergo a three-month
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training course in Belarus under the guidance
of local instructors, making up the Russian
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ground force.
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They are then sent to the territory of Ukraine
to participate in combat operations.
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The intensity of the use of munitions by the
Russians significantly exceeds the rate of
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their production.
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The enemy is removing remnants from Belarus
at an accelerated pace and looking for other
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suppliers.
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It is known that the processes of repair and
maintenance of artillery ammunition to be
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disposed of have begun.
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In the south of Ukraine, in the Kherson and
Zaporizhzhia regions, the enemy is fortifying
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the defensive lines and increasing the grouping
at the expense of the mobilized forces.
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In the future, the aggressor wants to seize
new territories to create buffer zones to
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ensure security for the occupied territories
already "incorporated into the Russian Federation.
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And now my observations about the occupier's
southern grouping, which has critically lost
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the efficiency of supplying and managing forward
units.
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In fact, since the beginning of 2023, there
has been a decrease in the level of manning
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of Russian troops' units with personnel and
equipment in the left-bank Kherson and Zaporizhzhia
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regions.
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At that time, a number of enemy units had
personnel staffing levels averaging 70% of
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their authorized strength, while the equipment
staffing levels could be as low as 50% or
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even 30% of authorized strength depending
on the type.
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This was due to the concentration of major
logistics support flows on Bakhmut.
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As fighting intensified in the areas of Bakhmut,
Vuhledar, Marinka, and Avdiivka, as well as
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the increased availability of troops and equipment
in Luhansk Region for the offensive against
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Lyman and Kupyansk, supply to the South deteriorated
significantly and now does not meet the minimum
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requirements for an effective grouping.
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For example, beginning in mid-February, the
occupation forces in Zaporizhzhia region have
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concentrated up to 11 Battalion tactical groups.
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Likewise, the reserve was systematically formed,
up to 6-7 groups.
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All this suggested that the enemy intended
to advance in the direction of Orikhiv and
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Hulyaipole ...
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But there was a nuance.
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All this seemingly threatening mass had big
supply problems.
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Not only were the advance units not compensated
for their daily losses in equipment, but even
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trivial ammunition.
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Most of the units were armed primarily with
small arms.
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The problem with the provision of heavy weapons
and a proportionate amount of ammunition was
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not just acute but critical.
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It has been going on for months, worsening
every day.
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But the Russian command is unable to solve
it due to a lack of resources and the ability
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to set up a support system.
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One can only imagine what will happen to the
supply of forward units and the entire South
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in general, if the situation there intensifies
several times, and the need for logistic support
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increases three or four times or more.
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Meanwhile, the Ukrainian side is already probing
for weaknesses in the Russian defense, as
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evidenced by the recent videos of strikes
on the territory of temporarily occupied Crimea.
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Everything is just beginning.
5893
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