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especially consumers you know
they start to see benefits in
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source I'd say. I'm going to
add some links at the end but
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100% efficient stopping of a QE
program because essential banks
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stop we'll get a completely
stale market and very
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that read about the constative
easing program that happened
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Investopedia is an amazing
place. Um obviously search this
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supply in the market you start
to see you know massive shifts
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up on YouTube as well just to
get a better understanding.
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they always want you know money
supply to increase because they
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even successfully stopped. I
don't think there's ever been a
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kind of need it to stimulate
the economy. If they completely
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obviously look back on the
previous lessons and another
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understood. Please take notes
of whatever I'm saying and
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the market they get benefits
every month and as soon as you
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saw in the 2013 a tape a
tantrum and then of course
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deflationary conditions.
Anyways guys I hope you
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start to hear that okay you're
not going to have as much money
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moment. So this just proves the
point that the market becomes
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earlier before that in 20082009
everything that happened after
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guys keep researching more
about this particularly what we
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back then and understand one
thing that QE program never
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way too reliant especially in a
time like this on the influx of
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purchases that's when you
actually Start to see DXY you
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money provided by the Fed. So
of course as you understand
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in the in the treasury yield
market especially now anyways
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increases particularly M2
supply and you realise that
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eventually the Fed they didn't
really announce anything about
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might see a range in market and
that's what I'm expecting in
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know appreciate in value rather
than what we're seeing at the
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and you know you you're going
to see immediate immediate
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from the 2008 crisis and how
that continued on because
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with this is when an
announcement is make is made
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chart. If you look back in the
2013 taper tantrum and this is
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Treasury yields. Uh example of
this is the US 10 ten yield
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the beginning but as soon as
you start to see interest rate
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with all these asset purchases
that are happening money supply
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hikes which usually happen
after the reduction of asset
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the reduction of assets until
about 2012 and 2013. Now the
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going to see a massive crumble
after this announcements due to
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the first time it was really
heard of so this term taper
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occur. This means an
announcement will be made of
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shifts in the markets
especially with the US Treasury
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the problem with with actually
announcing tapering and the
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reaction in the in the markets
can actually be seen in the US
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Now tapering is only expected
when the overall economy is
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tantrum. Have a look back at
the constative easing program
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tantrum. Now the reason why
central banks don't immediately
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reduction of assets is
something called a taper
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slowing down constative easing
pretty much immediately. Um the
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announce a shift in policy is
because a taper tantrum can
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showing substantial progress as
we've just gone through. Now
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quite a hike from that but of
course you know we've had the
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information that year on year
inflation was recorded at four
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now. I believe for the moment
they've just released
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when the Fed starts to realise
okay enough of our constitative
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yield markets now if you have a
look back on that chart you're
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the panic now this is going to
be for a short while so you
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employment number and of course
inflation is increasing right
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is just 2% and now the 4%
increase it's it's quite it's
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pandemic and everything around
the world with global macro.
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percent. So of course you know
what economies usually aim for
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course showing higher
inflationary numbers that's
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easing program we're starting
to see you know an improved
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start to see consumer price
index numbers increasing and of
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comes to you know increased
money supply with all the
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that leads to higher employment
rate. The second thing is the
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improved employment number and
that's the main thing when it
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stage of the fundamental
course. So as soon as they
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increased money supply and all
that inflation that's coming
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in. Of course they want to see
higher GDP and of course that
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happening? So first of all the
Fed they do want to see an
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these are the two main ways
that tapering can occur. Now
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which types of bonds the the
Fed decides to purchase and I
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months all the way to 30 years.
And of course it depends on
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believe they release this
information. Um but yeah guys
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CPI number. So we've briefly
went through this in the first
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what are the confirmations of a
tapering announcement actually
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the maturity of that bond
asset. So they range from three
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way Is to allow the assets to
mature. So as you understand
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reduction of expansionary
monetary policies as seen as
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purchase has an expiration
date. So you have to look at
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is what we're potentially
going to be seeing from an
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especially when it comes to the
bond market. Every single bond
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come into the into place by
twenty twenty-two. The second
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announcement from the Fed soon
and then hopefully that will
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Fed uses the word tapering. So
that's simply just the
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ways. First way is to reduce
asset purchases per month which
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reduction of asset purchases
the term that especially the
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know something negative to
happen. So in terms of
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quantitative easing. Now how
can tapering occur? There's two
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purchases must start to take
place. You can't you simply
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can't keep increasing money
supply without expecting you
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severely leads to the
depreciation of the domestic
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currency. As a result the Fed
have obviously got to act upon
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inflation that can lead to an
overheated economy. Which
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this and you know take action.
So a reduction of asset
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continues? We're obviously
going to be seen out of control
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too but these are the main two.
Uh so what happens if this
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Fed has stepped up its QE
program to $40 billion dollars
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month in mortgage backed
securities and like we
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a month in treasury bonds and
then $40 billion dollars a
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that they look at. Of course
there's other types of assets
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mentioned before these are the
two main two main asset classes
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purchases. So let's take a look
at the US QE program at the
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moment. So particularly since
the peak of the pandemic the
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in other countries they have to
dial back on all these asset
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understand that eventually the
Fed and the other central banks
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can't can't keep up with their
QE program. Especially when
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and all the money supply in the
economy. You've got to
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when there's times of higher
inflation due to the QE program
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So moving on from what we
looked at last time with
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constated ease and you've got
to understand that the economy
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going to be looking at
reduction of asset purchases.
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Yes guys welcome to the next
lesson. So in this one we're
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Anyways guys take care and I'll
see you in the next video.
10731
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