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I think everyone paid attention to the increase
in the number of occupants liquidated in recent
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days in the reports of the AFU General Staff.
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In the last three days alone, the Russian
army has been reduced by 2,200, not counting
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the wounded.
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Now two factors have formed in the zone of
combat operations that influence this increase
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in Russian casualties.
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The first is the entry into direct contact
of units that have been replenished by partially
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mobilized untrained civilians.
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For example, the 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment
was assembled only from recruits.
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The 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade has over
60% of recruits there.
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And so on.
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Completely unprepared and understaffed units
now stand against motivated AFU forces, and
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the result of this confrontation is reflected
in numbers.
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The second factor is that quantity is not
always quality, but also the problem of safe
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accommodation.
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For example, by concentrating a large number
of troops in one small location, you make
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them more vulnerable.
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About 25 Battalion tactical groups are now
concentrated on the right bank of the Kherson
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region, but such density leads to, shall we
say, crowding on the bridgehead and vulnerability
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of the enemy to AFU artillery.
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Fall 2022 is the final transition of the Ukrainian
Armed Forces from the model of "contain the
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enemy" to the model of "knock out the enemy".
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The best strategy now is to wear down and
exhaust the enemy, destroying the Russians'
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already sparse supply routes as much as possible
so that the mobilized meet the winter without
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ammunition, food, heating and medical supplies.
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The emaciated and hungry Russian army will
surrender on its own, without a fight.
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So far there is no chance that the situation
for Russia will change.
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We see that saturation of the front with incapable
Russians mobilized only complicates the war
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for the Russian command, increases casualties,
and has a negative impact on the controllability
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of the troops.
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And a lack of basic supplies in the winter
will lead to an even greater crisis for the
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Russian troops.
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Of course, when most of the Russian mobilized
will be eliminated, there will be a part of
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those who, even in cold, famine and without
ammunition, will learn to survive.
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But it’s a few months.
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