All language subtitles for Lesson 4.3 Ideal Seasonal (J) EN

Welcome back folks.

This is less than four points.

Oh, the January, 2017 ICT
mentorship, continuing our

discussion on seasonal tendencies.

We're going to be highlighting
ideals, seasonal tendencies,

and hard timeframe analysis.

This is going to be specifically dealing
with foreign exchange or FX payers.

Okay.

Before we begin, uh, just a reminder
that seasonal tendencies are a tendency.

They're not a panacea.

They're not a be all end all.

They're not a absolution.

They're just roadmaps of what has
happened in the past with price action.

So when we look at these charts, the
orientation is for instance, for the

Forex pair, all the dollar, the chart
on the left is the Australian dollar

futures, price, seasonal tendency, and
the chart on the right us dollar index,

seasonal tendency for the futures price.

But I'm sharing with you the
ideal seasonal tendencies.

What we're actually looking
at is we're comparing.

The two seasonal tendency charts.

We're looking for the most diametrically
opposed price action between the two.

So when we're focusing on high
probability or in my definition of

an ideal seasonal tendency is when
the underlying market is predisposed

to go in a direction that seize on
tenancy is being outlined in here.

So it doesn't mean every single year,
this seasonal tendency may or may not

come to fruition, but that's okay.

It's a general rule of thumb.

There's plenty of these seasonal
tendencies as we go through the major.

So there's something always
every year that would set up

a potential long-term trade.

You see here on the Australian dollar,
the strongest seasonal tendency in

contrast to that, of the dollar index
on the right, the shaded area here shows

the strongest tendency for Australian
dollar futures prices to rally in

March and make a top sometime in may.

Now, if this is true, we should
see a sell off in the dollar index.

And we do in fact, see that same
thing occurring between March and

a decline making a low in may.

So between the two, we have a
qualified ideal scenario for the

Australian us dollar pair and FX to
rally because it's the first currency

in the name of the pear Australia.

All as he looks to rally at times
a year, same time the dollar index.

So the payer construction
in way it's design.

When we watch the price of Aussie
dollar, when we see price rallying on

that chart, we're actually seeing the
rise of Australian dollar futures,

or I'll show you in prices versus
lower prices on the dollar index.

So in an ideal scenario, this trade
would be best suited to be found on

a long-term primary bullish market.

Or if we made a long-term low.

We could potentially test this theory
in terms of catching a long-term trade.

Okay.

Our next pair we're going to
look at is the New Zealand dollar

or Kiwi coupled with the dollar
index on the left hand side.

That's the New Zealand dollar
futures contract seasonal tendency.

And again, on the right hand side, it is
the us dollar index features seasonal.

See here again, just like we saw on
the Australian dollar, we can see a

rally that's typical for a March April
time period, making a high in may for

the New Zealand dollar features price.

And again, if this is true, we're
going to see a contrast sell off

at the same time of the year.

Again, we do see that may
April high and a low forming.

Now, these are only focusing on
the highest, ideal long-term setup.

I'm not looking for every possible
scenario for a seasonal play, but

for longterm analysis, we're focusing
only on the most obvious ones that

jump off the chart and they have
historical data to support it.

And again, because it's a
tendency, it doesn't mean it's

going to happen every single year.

So the best scenario would be when you're
in a bullish condition and you're seeing

underlying bullishness for New Zealand.

This seasonal tendency should
have an effect on price.

That time of year, between March and
April, we should be seeing a seasonal low.

And for a couple months you see
a rally up into, around may.

The next pair we're gonna look at is
the Euro dollar or fiber, and we're

gonna be focusing on the left-hand
chart for the Euro futures price.

And then we're going to look at
the chart on the right, for the

futures price on the U S dollar.

As you see here, we have a seasonal load.

It usually forms between June and July.

And that should be seen with a high
that forms in the dollar index.

So as a longterm high timeframe
scenario, this is the ideal scenario.

You would look for a load of
form in the summer of Eurodollar.

Okay.

Next one we're looking at is the cable
or British pound versus us dollar.

The chart on the left is the British pound
futures, price and seasonal tendency.

And the dollar index is on the
right hand side seasonal tendency

for the futures price as well.

For the British pound, we have the
strongest tendency to make a low in

March with a high forming in may.

And if this is true, We will be
seeing a high form between March

and April with a low forming in may.

And we do see that here.

So this is the highest probable or
ideal scenario for seasonal tendencies.

Again, not a panacea or a end
endo, but it is a really good.

Time to expect a bullish scenario,
at least for a longterm trade.

If the underlying market for
the British pound is bullish.

So if you're studying the futures
price of the British pound, or if

you just watching the pound dollar
ethics pair and on a higher timeframe

charts, we're expecting to see higher
prices were in a long-term uptrend.

If we enter this time a year
between March and April, we would be

expecting some seasonal low to form.

And we can see that actually,
uh, is supported with ACE.

So off in the dollar seasonally as well.

I want to contrast also the
difference between these blue

and red lines on the chart.

On the left hand side, that's the British
pounds futures, seasonal tendency.

The blue line represents 40
years of data and the bread

line represents 15 years of day.

So by contracting that you have a lot
of time factored into these tendencies.

So it's, to me, in my opinion,
this is a really strong one because

it's many years worth of data.

And it's also contrasting it with
a smaller, short term view of the

marketplace where, you know, in the
last 15 years it was there and then

last 40 years, it was still there.

So between March and April, there's
usually a seasonal low there form.

And then it rallies up to him
making a spring high around may.

And again, it's really, really a positive
and most likely expected to see happen

when you have the underlying British pound
in a strong uptrend or you've suspected

a turn has taken place long-term and
we haven't started trending up higher.

We can test this theory about taking
a trade and see if it does in fact.

In the next pair is
the dollar swissy okay.

Or us dollar versus the Swiss Frank
dollar index is on the left-hand side.

It's the seasonal tendency for the
futures price of the dollar index.

And on the right hand side is
the futures charts, seasonal

tendency for the Swiss rank case.

So what we have on the dollar index,
we have a seasonal tendency for the

dollar to make us seasonal high.

In the June, July time period.

So summer highs, forming in dollar
index and the contrasting load at

forums in June, July in the Swiss Franc.

So we have a strong tendency for that
to make a major turning point in the

summer months for this particular pair.

And again, this would be an ideal
scenario where the dollar is in a bearish

market, uh, primary, um, downtown.

Or if we are in a primary option
for this was Frank, this'll be a

good scenario to trade this as well.

K the dollar versus Japanese
yen on left-hand side, we have,

again, the seasonal tendency for
the futures price for the dollar.

And then on the right, we have
the seasonal tendency chart for

the futures price of the Japanese
yen, strongest Tennessee on the

dollar is the CA high format.

So off into may, and the opposite
is seen with a seasonal low

forming in March and April.

And we see that that generally makes
the longterm low for the Japanese yen

at that time, across the account a year.

If we're looking at seasonal tendencies
again, um, the way you could trade this

is if you are in a downtrend for a dollar
index, this would be a really good one.

The sell dollar versus Japanese yen,
or if you are in a bullish uptrend

for the Japanese yen, uh, this is a
good time to sell short this currency

pair because you'd be buying strength
of the Japanese yam while selling.

Okay, our next pair is the dollar CAD
or us dollar versus Canadian dollar.

On the left-hand side, we have the
dollar index futures, seasonal tendency,

and on the right, we have the Canadian
dollar futures, seasonal tendency.

And for the dollar, we have a strong
tendency to create a high again, in that

March, April time period, making a low in.

And we see the opposite is seen with the
Canadian dollar making a low in March,

April, and that high forming in may.

So that way you would use this
seasonal tendency as if you're

bearish on the dollar index.

This is a good time to be selling
short dollar CAD, or if you're long

term bullish on Canadian dollar,
this is a good time to sell this.

Because you can see the weakness in the
dollar index, in the strength underlying

with the Canadian dollar fell, it kind
of like go back in summary with these

seasonal tendencies, just because
we're looking at one seasonal tendency.

For instance, when we're looking at the
seasonal seasonal tendencies for the

dollar index, uh, when that occurred,
Like for instance, between March

and April time period, we expect the
dollar index to create some measure

of a high long-term seasonally.

It doesn't mean it's going to happen, but
we're expecting it to occur by itself.

It means that we're, if we're primarily
bearish on the dollar index, this is an

ideal scenario to be selling dollars.

Now that may not be apparent in
the dollar index, but if we see a.

Or a currency that is coupled
with a dollar that has a strong

seasonal tendency that rally.

And it says at a time of the year, like
that March, April time period, like

we're seeing here with the Canadian
dollar, that means we don't have to

be in the uptrend for dollar index.

We could be in a long-term consolidation,
but say the, say the Canadian

dollars in a bullish uptrend, you're
focusing in on that time of year.

Where March, April creates
a low and Canadian dollar

and it rallies up into may.

So with that seasonal tendency, underlying
strength for the Canadian dollar that also

would sell off the dollar versus CAD pair.

So it's a, it's a blending of the ideas.

It's not simply, well, it has to be the,
a downtrend for the dollar and it has to

be an uptrend for the Canadian dollar.

You only really need.

And by blending these two elements
together and applying this seasonal

tendency, you're really focusing
in on when seasonally the highest

probability for a big move as to occur.

You narrow it down to a specific time
of the year, certain calendar months and

highest probability seasonal tendency.

So you can go through your.

Ahead of time and write down certain
months where you want to be focusing on

specific plays that may unfold and price.

It's real easy to forget about
these seasonal tendencies.

When you get caught up in the day,
trading and short term trading and

reading other stuff about ICT material.

But you want to have this stuff
in your, in your calendar, on your

trading desk, there should always
be things to watch this month

things to watch the coming month.

Okay.

And these are the types of things
you want to have in your notes.

So when you're working at your desk
and you have your, your, your trade

desk open, you're looking for trades,
always start your trading day.

Every single day with reviewing a
macro perspective like this, are we

coming on a time period where there's
a high probability for a sustainable.

And it's seen by these types of
seasonal tendencies, very rarely.

Do you have things that would line up
or give you clues that feature price

should do certain things or have a
rhythm to it like seasonal tendencies.

And when we study these, you're going to
see that we're going to go, we're going

to refer to these actually multiple times
throughout the disciplines of trading.

We're gonna use them again in swing
trading and in short term trading.

We're not done with them because we're
doing high timeframe analysis, but for

higher timeframe analysis, these are
scenarios you want to be focusing on

specifically for these respective pairs.

So until we talk again, I wish
you good luck and good trading.